K .C . K e rs ebaum A .S . N a in C . N endel M . G ando rfe r

Photo: A. Jarfe
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
Association
M. Wegehenkel
M. Gandorfer
C. Nendel
A.S. Nain
K.C. Kersebaum
Simulated effects of climate change
on arable crop production and water and nitrogen management
in different regions in Germany
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
• Summary
• Response on nitrogen fertilization
Association
• Climate change impact on crop yield
• Climatological trends
• Methods and sites
• Introduction
Outline
Daily time series from statistical downscaling model WETTREG for weather stations in
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simulated crop: winter wheat
Virtual fertilizer experiment using 20 fertilization levels in 5% steps down from 207 kg N/ha as
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Association
Simulation model HERMES (Kersebaum 2007)
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Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
9 Meteorlogical stations across Germany each associated with a typical soil type of the region
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maximum
Reference period 1970-1989, projected period 2031-2050
weather situations classified for wetness
3 representative realisations (wet, dry, normal) out of 8 statistical generated time series of
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Scenario A1B (mixed use of fossile and alternative energy sources)
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Germany (period 1961-2050) (SPEKAT et al. 2007)
GCM model ECHAM5/MPI-OMT63L31
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Background of the study
Methods
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
Association
Methods: scheme of the simulation model HERMES
Belg.
H
Md
CH
Fr
Me
Wst
Hof
Germany
Aac
Nethl.
Rot
Poland
Austria
Czech. Rep.
Mbg
Sweden
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
France
UK
Norway
Association
Locations used for climate change impact modelling
W
E
E
W
Rotenburg
Rot
32 m
Aachen
Aac
202 m
Hannover
H
55 m
Magdeburg
Md
76 m
Müncheberg Mbg
62 m
Hof
Hof
474 m
Weihenstephan Wst
470 m
Metten
Me
313 m
Freiburg
Fr
236 m
elevation a.s.l.
Station (abr.)
10.2
9.3
9.2
8.8
6.8
7.8
8.1
11.3
silty loam
sandy loam
silt
sand
sandy loam
silty loam
sandy loam
clay silt
+8.1 %
+7.6 %
+10.9 %
+10.8 %
+7.3 %
+7.2 %
+8.8 %
+8.5 %
+9.1 %
12.2
8.7
8.6
7.5
9.4
9.8
10.1
11.1
future
9.9
annual
now
future
750
739
-1.4 %
714
706
-1.1 %
628
596
-5.1 %
478
456
-4.5 %
533
506
-5.1 %
739
713
-3.5 %
726
679
-6.5 %
938
904
-3.7 %
909
865
-4.9%
winter
now
future
377
373
-1.0 %
346
324
-6.2 %
304
288
-5.1 %
219
196
-10.5 %
247
230
-7.1 %
351
335
-4.6 %
294
286
-2.8 %
457
450
-1.6 %
401
387
-3.4 %
precipitation
sunshine hours
S
N
Association
summer
now
future now
future
373
366 1397
1524
-1.8 %
+9.1 %
368
382 1625
1764
+ 3.7 %
+8.5 %
325
308 1528
1673
-5.1 %
+9.5 %
259
260 1648
1770
+0.05 %
+7.4 %
286
276 1678
1781
-3.4 %
+6.2 %
388
379 1620
1711
-2.5 %
+5.6 %
432
393 1743
1827
-8.9 %
+4.8 %
481
454 1631
1673
-5.7 %
+2.6 %
509
478 1788
1911
-6.1 %
+6.9 %
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
now
9.1
Temperature
loamy sand
Soil
Characterisation of sites
105.2
116.3
Metten
Weihenstephan
General trend
49.7
120.9
86.5
Hof
Müncheberg
80.4
Magdeburg
W Freiburg
E
E
73.7
46.9
71.7
now
Hannover
W Aachen
Rotenburg
Station
11.3
31.1
29.6
43.6
26.1
18.7
16.6
9.4
18.1
now
8.7
22.2
19.9
30.0
18.4
14.2
11.3
7.3
12.5
future
ice days
(Tmax<0 °C)
11.8
4.9
6.2
2.6
7.0
7.2
4.4
4.0
5.8
now
17.7
5.2
7.0
2.4
9.1
10.9
6.1
6.8
7.7
future
hot days
(Tmax>30 °C)
51.2
31.3
41.1
19.1
35.3
37.6
27.6
26.3
28.0
now
66.8
40.8
48.3
24.5
41.6
50.3
37.2
36.2
37.8
future
summer days
(Tmax>25 °C)
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
39.1
100.7
92.7
104.5
73.1
65.9
58.5
33.8
56.4
future
frost days
(Tmin<0 °C)
Characterisation of sites
202.8
202.0
199.4
188.2
217.2
208.2
197.9
192.5
194.2
future
S
N
Association
197.1
196.3
192.3
180.3
200.7
205.5
186.2
181.8
191.8
now
dry days
(prec. = 0)
cumulative probability
0
2
4
-1
grain yield [t ha ]
6
8
1
0
10
2
future
(wet)
future
(dry)
future
(normal)
reference
(average)
12
4
-1
grain yield [t ha ]
6
8
10
Association
Müncheberg
NE- Germany, sand, 62 m a.s.l.
533 mm present annual precipitation
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Hof
SE- Germany, sandy loam, 474 m a.s.l.
739 mm present annual precipitation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Simulated yield variability now and in future
cumulative probability
12
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Rot
Rot
H
H
Md
Md
Mbg
Station
Mbg
Station
Hof
Hof
Me
Me
Wst
Wst
Fr
Fr
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
Aac
Aac
Association
Simulated yield variability now and in future
grain yield [t ha-1]
coefficient of variation
grain yield [t ha-1]
grain yield [t ha-1]
30
210
0
30
180
210
Association
60
90
120
150
N-fertilization [kg N ha-1]
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Müncheberg
0
180
210
1
60
90
120
150
N-fertilization [kg N ha-1]
180
1
30
60
90
120
150
N-fertilization [kg N ha-1]
2
0
Hannover
0
1970-1989
2031-2050
West-East transect North Germany, sandy soils
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Rotenburg
Simulated crop yield response to nitrogen fertilization
grain yield [t ha-1]
grain yield [t ha-1]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
30
180
210
1970-1989
2031-2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
Hof
30
180
210
Association
60
90
120
150
N-fertilization [kg N ha-1]
Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
60
90
120
150
N-fertilization [kg N ha-1]
Weihenstephan
North-South transect in South Germany,
elevated sites (470 m)
Simulated crop yield response to nitrogen fertilization
grain yield [t ha-1]
Yields of winter wheat are simulated to be mostly reduced, but at one elevated location
projected conditions will favour crop growth due to inceased temperature.
Yield variability is predicted to increase most in the North-Eastern part of Germany.
Changed yield expectations and changed nitrogen dynamics in soil will lead to site
specific changes of yield/fertilization response curves.
In most cases nitrogen use efficiency will decrease due to longer drought periods which
limit nitrogen uptake. This will require a site specific adaptation of nitrogen fertilization
schemes due to changed economic optimum fertilization.
Yield reductions are in a magnitude that they might be compensated by elevated CO2
effects, which will be analysed in a next step using a modified model version.
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Kersebaum et al. - INSAFS, Hyderabad 18. February 2008
Association
In Germany, the general trend of the A1B scenario projected beside an increase in
temperature an increase of sunshine hours, but a decrease of annual precipitation. The
number of frost and ice days will decrease, hot and summer days will increase as well
as the number of days without rain.
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Thank you for your attention
Downscaled climate change scenarios can be used to simulate crop growth, water and
nutrient dynamics in agro-ecosystems
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Summary