Here - Colgate University
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Here - Colgate University
The Colgate Academic Review Volume VII Spring 2010 i This marks the seventh edition of The Colgate Academic Review, and we at the Student Lecture Forum could not be more pleased with how well the project this publication represents has grown and evolved over its nearly four years of existence. The ensuing 270 pages contain arguably the best of what Colgate’s student body has to offer in academic work from the Spring, 2010 semester. Papers were selected based on the results of an academic conference, held April 18, 2010 in the Ho Science Center. Students submitted abstracts of their work and presented their findings to panels of student and faculty judges in three of Colgate’s four major academic divisions: Social Sciences, Natural Sciences, and Humanities. The fourth category, the liberal arts CORE Curriculum, received no submissions this semester and so has, unfortunately, been omitted. Three submissions were selected as the best in their respective division, with one additional paper judged overall “best in conference.” This winner, Allison Patchen, was awarded the George E. Stevenson prize from the Colgate Speaking Union. The fact that so many authors in the current edition hail from the Class of 2010 is somewhat bittersweet: those of us who remain at Colgate will miss their insights and acumen in the semesters to come. However, we celebrate the fact that the wider world is now the beneficiary of their talents, and we are confident that new lights will reveal themselves in short order. We eagerly anticipate cataloguing their future academic accomplishments. We hope you enjoy engaging with the ideas inside this volume as much as we have. -Andrew Pike, Class of 2012 Editor ii The Student Lecture Forum dedicates this volume of The Colgate Academic Review to Conor Tucker, Class of 2010. During his time as a student at Colgate, including two years as President of the Student Lecture Forum, Conor exhibited exceptional dedication to the ideals upon which this organization was founded: scholarship, inquiry, and a fierce curiosity extending far beyond the bounds of the classroom. We wish him all the best in his future endeavors. iii iv Table of Contents Best in Conference: Page Allison Patchen, Threats and Opportunities: Experiences in Public Housing in Utica, New York 1 Best Social Sciences Submission: Mark Kanter, Implicit Discrimination in Major League Baseball: Marginality Decisions Based on Minor League Offensive Production 27 Best Natural Sciences Submission: Courtney Walsh, Narrative Processing Predicts WellBeing and Communion in Victims of Intimate Partner Violence 44 Best Humanities Submission: 85 Max Counter, The Dynamics of Doubt Other Superior Entrants: Colleen Tubridy, Occupational Diversity of Immigrants in the United States 108 Dan Lasker, Southern Racism and Reality: A Case Study 134 Jess Mawhirt, Segregation and Incarceration: How Life in the Ghetto Leads to Life in Prisons for Young Black Men 152 Marissa Dombovy-Johnson, The Effects of Taurine and Caffine Alone and in Combination on Locomotor Activity in the Rat 169 Michael LoFaso, Measuring the Persistence of Output Shocks: A Study of Output Behavior using ARMA and Monte Carlo Methods 188 v Vildana Hajric, A Generalized Leslie Matrix Model for Projections of Area V Humpback Whale Population Demographics 210 Mary Liz Brady, Validating Foreign Language Issues: What are the Effects of Non-English or Bilingual Population on an MSA? 224 Kate Gundersen, www.youarewhatyoueat.com: The Religious Nature of Healthy Eating Blogs 238 vi Threats and Opportunities: Experiencing Public Housing in Utica, New York Allison Patchen, Class of 2010 One of the most challenging effects of living below the poverty line is difficulty finding safe and affordable housing. In the early 1990s, the US government sought to remedy what social scientists call “concentrated poverty,” said to cause heightened crime rates, lower employment levels, and lesser educational attainment in cities. The result was Housing Opportunities for Everyone (HOPE VI), which is designed to replace low quality housing or abandoned buildings with new housing structures. For many people who live in cities, public housing is the only affordable option. Utica, a city that houses a large number of refugees, was one of the select cities in the United States to receive funding from the HOPE VI project. Through six diverse focus groups with residents of the Utica Municipal Housing Authority, I ask why public housing residents are not yet self-sufficient. In my analysis, I find that residents prefer to live in public housing for a variety of reasons, that many residents are under-informed about opportunities available to them, that they depend on family networks for support, and that there is a need for support services such as citizenship classes for refugees. “I don’t even think about (moving out]. I think I’m gonna die there. I don’t want to pay heating and lights.” – Doris, 58 Introduction Many families living at or below the poverty line struggle to find decent and affordable housing. Some are just one paycheck away from homelessness. Public housing became a part of the mission of the US government during the Urban Migration that took place from the 1940s through the 1960s. These housing units quickly became “urban ghettos” (Sugrue 1996). In the early 1990s, the US government sought to remedy what many social scientists called “concentrated poverty,” which causes negative effects on a community such as heightened crime rates, lower employment levels, and lesser educational attainment. The result was Housing Opportunities for Everyone (HOPE VI). HOPE VI, initiated in 1993, is designed to place new housing structures in places where low quality housing already exists or where abandoned buildings are currently standing. The goal is not only to change the nature of the space, but also to change the economic structure of the community by bringing in residents of higher income levels. Furthermore, it includes a “community and supportive services component designed to help raise the incomes of public residents and move them on a path towards financial selfsufficiency” (Reig, Liebow, and O’Malley 2006, 192). 1 Public housing has been established throughout the country to provide decent and safe rental housing “for eligible low-income families, the elderly, and persons with disabilities” (“HUD’s Public Housing Program”). An individual’s eligibility depends on his or her annual gross income, status as elderly, disabled, or as a family, and US citizenship or eligible immigration status (1). Rent or Total Tenant Payment (TTP) is based on a family’s anticipated gross annual income less deductions for dependents, elderly family members or persons with disabilities. TTP is determined as the highest of either (a) 30% of monthly adjusted income, (b) 10% of monthly income, (c) welfare rent, if applicable, or (d) minimum monthly rent, as established by the Housing Authority, at times as low as $25. According to the HUD website, an individual may stay in public housing as long as he or she complies with the lease. An individual or family will not be required to move from public housing unless there is affordable housing available on the private market, based on income. refugees and immigrants occupy a significant proportion of the subsidized housing units of the Utica Municipal Housing Authority. I thought these residents might have different limiting factors that cause them to remain in public housing than the residents who have been living in public housing for many years. As of 2007, the median household income in Utica was $30,971 with 24% of people living below the poverty line. In this paper, I argue that few residents have goals of self-sufficiency because many have larger issues that they are dealing with and because push factors for leaving public housing are relatively absent. Essentially, my research question is: What is keeping current public housing residents out of the private market? Why are they not “self sufficient”? These questions had been negotiated with the grant-writer, Mr. Furman, and executive director, Dr. Herbowy, of the Housing Authority prior to the beginning of the research. Each of the six focus groups was targeted at a specific population, which gave me information about senior citizens, young adults, residents of each housing area owned by the Utica Municipal Housing Authority, and the two major refugee populations in the area, Russians and Somali Bantu. For this project, I examine the efforts of the Utica Municipal Housing Authority (UMHA) in meeting the needs of residents of its housing units and the HOPE VI target area. The UMHA administers approximately one thousand public housing units as well as the HOPE VI target area. The public housing units range from one-bedroom apartments to six bedroom apartments. There are attached apartment buildings, high-rise apartment buildings, and duplexes that serve families, elders, and people with disabilities. The large population of In this paper, I focus on urban poverty, its diverse manifestations among people, and how the Housing Authority attempts to tackle the related issues. Across the focus groups, issues of cost and safety are two of the most common reasons people cite for living in public housing. First, I will discuss the 2 theoretical framework I employed in the analysis of these focus groups, focusing primarily on theories of concentrated poverty, social capital and human capital. Next, I review the research previously completed on the HOPE VI project and Family Self Sufficiency across the country and in Utica. Finally, I identify my contribution to the body of research on the topic. Latinos, immigrants, and refugees, all of whom are part of the urban underclass. Despite the change in the reality of experiences for the urban poor, many policies and programs, including the family self-sufficiency program of the UMHA, remain rooted in the concept of public housing as a transitional step in the road to homeownership. Social disorganization can also be defined as a lack of social capital. Coleman’s (1988) concept of social capital “allows taking resources and showing the way they can be combined with other resources to produce different system-level behavior or, in other cases, different outcomes for individuals” (s101). The concept of social capital is useful in assessing the threats and opportunities for self-sufficiency present in public housing. His theory of social capital involves three subsets. Social relationships that provide information that facilitates action are one type. The second form is norms and effective sanctions. Prescriptive norms, or “norms that one should forgo self interest and act in the interests of the collectivity” strengthen families and generally encourage people to work for the public good (S104). This theory states that effective norms can reduce deviant actions that harm others. The final form of social capital according to Coleman depends on two essentials: reliability of the social environment, which implies that commitments will be upheld, and the actual extent of commitments held. Impoverished urban centers are often lacking in all or nearly all of these categories. In Utica, the majority of public housing units are part of large complexes physically located apart from Theoretical Framework Social disorganization has been discussed as a threat in poor urban neighborhoods since 1925 (Park & Burgess, 1925). In that era, public housing was seen as a transitional and functional part of the metropolis “where new immigrant groups would pass through for a temporary period of time” (Curley, 2005, Park & Burgess, 1925). However, since the mid-1960s, social conditions for the “urban underclass” have worsened. Wilson (1987) and Sugrue (1996) argue that the suburbanization of jobs and a lesser demand for low skilled labor contributed to a “downward spiral for urban blacks.” Furthermore, economic integration of urban areas lessened with the onset of the “democratization of suburbia.” Here, the loss of entry-level jobs, the loss of middle class community members (both black and white), and capital flight to the suburbs causes concentrated poverty. Wilson (1987) argues that as time progresses, the urban blacks became ever more isolated from informal job networks, employed role models, and mainstream patterns of behavior (Curley, 2005). In Utica, concentration effects may effect more than just the urban black population, but also poor whites, 3 private housing, which may contribute to a lack of social capital as discussed above. negatively stereotype all of its occupants or decrease the quantity or quality of resources they invest there (Galster, Cutsinger, Malega 2008). These effects can be seen in Utica in the poor condition of the roads surrounding some communities of the UMHA, and the poor quality of parking lots and public space. The effects of social capital and social disorganization can be best understood through the framework of concentrated poverty, which was the primary motivation for the development of the HOPE VI project. Popkin, Levy, and Buron (2009) define concentrated poverty as “communities with poverty rates of 40 per cent or more.” Galster, Cutsinger, and Malega (2008) find that those living in disadvantaged, inner-city neighborhoods with high levels of poverty and social disorganization have poorer health, lower levels of educational achievement, fewer employment opportunities, increased likelihood for gang recruitment, and heightened exposure to violence when compared with people living in more advantaged neighborhoods. Motivation, a prominent issue in the discussion of poverty, is essential in examining self-sufficiency in the context of public housing. Although some argue that federal policies serve to subsidize dependent behavior that keeps people poor, the motivation theory gives a different perspective. Learned helplessness implies a motivational deficit (people come to believe action is futile), cognitive interference (people will have difficulty learning that action can produce favorable results in new situations) and an affective reaction (depression or resignation). Further […] the perception of helplessness can be inferred from the environment, without direct experience of failure (Kane 1987: 411) Concentration effects, often associated with public housing, are a major threat to an individual’s growth. South (1999) argues that concentration effects are the results of the high level of social isolation from mainstream patterns of behavior due to the lack of sustained interactions with “steadily employed persons from stable families.” Another side effect of concentrated poverty is institutional decay, or decreased financial support and leadership in a community due to the emigration of residents who used to provide these services (Galster, Cutsinger, Malega 2008). Stigmatization of a community, another concentration effect, occurs when institutional, governmental, or market actors Related to this is the self-determination theory, used to explain an individual’s lack of motivation or internalization. It entails examining individuals’ social contexts their developmental environments to examine the degree to which their needs for competence, autonomy, and relatedness are being or have been thwarted (Ryan and Deci 2000, 74). Thus, an individual may become passive or unmotivated as a result of the situation in which he or she grew up. Self determinacy theory and motivation theory examine the 4 “therapeutic value of choice” and the difficulties an individual may have making choices, especially if one does not expect that he or she can personally help attain it (Kane 1987: 410). How do neighborhoods affect an individual’s selfmotivation and expectancy? What effects does public housing have on how children are socialized? VI funds, buildings must be in need of drastic improvement, a neighborhood must show signs of distress, and substantial matching funds must be available to the community (Rosenthal, 2004). Only 28 housing authorities nationwide received HOPE VI funds. The Utica Municipal Housing Authority received a grant totaling $11,501, 039 and sought to use this money to replace Washington Courts with new subsidized housing units in the Cornhill district. The premise of the project is to decrease the concentration of poverty in at-risk urban centers and increase social capital through “scattered site” housing that would promote the economic integration of these communities (Gilderbloom 2008). The HOPE VI project also sought to help residents attain financial selfsufficiency (Popkin et al 2009). This differed from the traditional goal of public housing: to provide decent, affordable housing; now public housing could become a “means to economic independence” (Newman and Harkness 2002: 21). Massey and Denton (1993) argue that federal housing policy promoted disinvestment in black urban neighborhoods and further segregated cities by placing public housing projects in predominantly poor black communities. They point out that this hyper segregation leads to social isolation, a theme in social theory on urban plight. As one of the expressed goals of HOPE VI is mixed-income housing, the hope is that social isolation will be combated. Theoretically, improving the SES of the most distressed neighborhoods will result in a greater diminution in social dislocations than proportionally comparable improvements in other types of neighborhoods (Crane 1991, as quoted in South 1999). Crane argues that social problems are contagious and are spread through peer influence; this suggests that social problems will be alleviated through positive peer influence. To what extent has socioeconomic integration occurred thanks to the efforts of HOPE VI? Has it had the desired effects? Recent empirical data suggests that there are some benefits of mixedincome housing, but it does not have “the transformative effects policy makers and scholars had envisioned” (Popkin et al. 2008). For the HOPE VI project, many residents had to be relocated during the rebuilding or renovation of existing housing projects. Popkin et al. (2008) found that the largest and most important effect of HOPE VI relocation was the reduction in the fear of crime. This study shows that there were no changes in self-sufficiency (employment rates) for residents, for whom health problems are some of the major obstacles Literature Review Extensive research and evaluations have been done on HOPE VI throughout the country over the past sixteen years. In order to receive HOPE 5 to employment. “A housing-only intervention may not have been sufficient to address the serious, chronic health needs of these vulnerable residents” (Popkin et al, 493). remains very distressed economically.” A major critique of HOPE VI in Utica was “the perceived failure of HOPE VI to building anything but houses” (OwensManley 16). At the time of the study, education and job training were significantly lacking in the community. One of the major issues Cornhill Residents had with HOPE VI was that they were not involved enough in the planning process and were not kept informed its proceedings. Residents stated what has been demonstrated throughout HOPE VI projects across the country: policy makers seek to minimize cost and maximize efficiency and are less concerned with the furtherance of public values (2003, “When Hope falls Short”). HOPE VI is structured as a set of contractual relationships with local public housing authorities, which in turn contract private developers and management companies, which was the case in Utica. Although HOPE VI requires the input of the residents, private companies and Housing authorities often refuse to give them meaningful opportunities to provide their input (2003). Reig, Liebow, and O’Malley (2006) examine the outcomes of HOPE VI in Seattle, where the mix of public housing was similar to that of Utica, NY, including senior housing, public housing apartments, affordable homeownership units, and a community center. They also had commercial space. Like Utica, the Rainier Vista, the section of Seattle that received funding, residents included immigrants from East Africa as well as African American and American born white residents. They find that in Seattle, the HOPE VI project was combined with Jobs-Plus, another program focused on helping low-income individuals become self sufficient. They find that a “formal body representing tenants on matters concerning housing and community life in their development,” the a Rainier Vista Resident Leadership Team (RVLT) was developed. After elections, the RVLT board of directors was representative of the development’s ethnic and national groups (197). Although this form of community development seemed successful, residents who participated in the job-plus program left the development and moved to a different part of the city (199). This study shows that helping residents find and maintain jobs is a complicated and difficult endeavor. The Owens-Manley study identifies another major problem related to HOPE VI: the perception that one must be in the “in” crowd to be considered for the reconstructed housing. That is, certain individuals are favored others based on an official’s discrepancy. Marquis and Ghosh (2008) also find that there is a bias in the selection of which individuals are accepted for resettlement in the new communities and which are relocated to other communities. This coincides with the finding that “hard to house” residents Research overseen by OwensManley (2007) has indicated that HOPE VI has “fallen short of the original hopes an[d] expectations, and the community 6 who have to deal with multiple complex problems such as mental illness, severe physical illness, substance abuse, large numbers of young children, weak labor market histories and criminal records are less likely to realize meaningful improvements in quality of life (Popkin et al 2009, 494). private housing, often in the form of homeownership (2005). Despite the reported successes of FSS programs, some experts criticize the concept of “self-sufficiency.” Hawkins (2005) questions the legitimacy self-sufficiency as a goal because it is difficult to define, difficult to evaluate, and “limited, unattainable, and insufficient for policymaking” (79). However, Hawkins argues that self-sufficiency should reflect four dimensions: 1) autonomy and responsibility, 2) financial security and responsibility, 3), family and self wellbeing, and 4) basic assets for living in the community (2005). He argues that decreasing long-term poverty and welfare depends on a combination of many factors, so all these must be treated. Hawkins however, does not evaluate current FSS or PFS (personal and family sustainability) programs. Some of these variables do not play a part in Utica, as individuals with criminal records are not permitted to live in the public housing units. In 2002, a study was published that examined the long-term effects of public housing on self-sufficiency. Newman and Harkness (2002) find that people who had lived in public housing between the ages of 10 and 16 had higher annual incomes and were about 7% more likely to be working than other individuals who were raised in families with comparable incomes. However, Sanbonmatsu et al (2006) studied the effects of the Moving to Opportunity program, which showed that “there was no difference in the children’s achievement test scores or measures of school or behavioral problems for any age group” (Mouw 98). This implies that living in “concentrated poverty” may have little or no effect on children’s academic outcomes. The needs assessment for the Utica Municipal Housing Authority builds upon the work of Owens Manley (2007), Anthony (2005), and Hawkins (2005) and examines the new needs and obstacles residents face after this community reconstruction. It evaluates the current attitudes of the residents of the UMHA’s subsidized housing units through the use of focus groups. The study focuses particularly on the services currently being provided to residents in addition to the services the residents think would be beneficial to them. The concepts of concentrated poverty and social capital are examined by inquiring about individuals’ length of stay in the housing units and their reasons for living there. Finally, it explores the added challenges refugees and immigrants face in public housing. Self-sufficiency is increasingly a primary objective of local housing authorities. Anthony (2005) was one of the first to research the outcomes of a Family Self Sufficiency (FSS) program. He finds that any participation at all in an FSS program will increase one’s earnings over the next few years, but completion of the program is associated with a much greater wage increase and increased likelihood of movement to 7 group consisted of refugees from Somalia, a Haitian immigrant, and an African American citizen. The sixth focus group had 14 Russian refugee immigrants who lived in Adrean terrace. See Appendix A for demographic information on group participants. Methodology I chose to work directly with the Utica Municipal Housing Authority (UMHA) for this project because it would allow me direct access to the residents of the subsidized housing units. It also gave me access to knowledge about all services currently being offered to residents and the extent of use of each service in the community. I was also allowed to work within the structure of the housing authority by collecting information in the three largest housing facilities and tapping into the networks that already existed between UMHA employees and community members. Participants were recruited for the focus groups in two ways. The case managers for Gilmore Village, Adrean Terrace, and Perretta Twin Towers were informed of the focus groups and asked to invite people to attend. Beyond this, the maintenance workers at Adrean Terrace and Perretta Twin Towers distributed fliers to each household. Jason Beck, AmeriCorps Vista worker, and I handed out the fliers door-to- door on two occasions in Gilmore Village and Adrean Terrace to invite residents to participate. Our goal was to attract as diverse a population as possible for the focus groups in the limited amount of time we had to conduct them. In Adrean Terrace, we had an over-representation of the refugee populations and an under representation of native-born populations. The method of data collection for this project was six focus groups that took place on Thursday October 15, Thursday October 22, and Tuesday, October 22. The intention was to have four focus groups, but attendance was so great at the two sessions on October 22 that I had to split the group into smaller groups. Participants in each focus group lived in public housing. Although the focus group participants were not a random sample of the population living in the units, the attendance was focused on subgroups of the population who lives in public housing. The first focus group contained ten young adults between the ages of 18 and 25. The second focus group was made up of four residents of Gilmore Village who were participants in the family self sufficiency program. The third and fourth focus groups were each made up of 8 participants who were residents of Perretta Towers, the senior and disabled living space. The fifth focus Each focus group met once, for approximately 45 minutes. I facilitated four focus groups and Jason Back facilitated two. We followed a discussion guide that had been developed through collaboration with Dr. Herbowy, executive director, and John Furman, grant-writer, at the Municipal Housing Authority (Appendix B). We conceptualized “self-sufficient” as living outside public housing, so I asked participants why they currently live in public housing, how long they plan to stay, and what would move them to leave 8 public housing. In order to better understand their needs and how they were being met, I asked participants about the services they receive and what they would like to receive. it was difficult to hear participants and at times they did not seem engaged, as they frequently made side conversations with their neighbors. However, many people had come to the room with the purpose of participating in the focus group and were interested in sharing their experiences. The first focus group was made up of ten young adults, aged 18-25 who were participants in the Job Crops program, designed as a job training program funded through the federal stimulus. All of these participants live in the HOPE VI target area, and some of them live in public housing. The focus group took place during their last day with the program, so all were invited to participate; only one person opted not to participate. For the first focus group, participants were thrown off by the first question, “How long have you lived in subsidized housing?” because few of them live in subsidized housing, and even fewer of them call it by that term. The participants did not understand the purpose of the research as well as other groups did, and I did not understand exactly how these people fit into my project at first, but they all reside in the HOPE VI target area. At the last focus group session at Adrean Terrace, approximately fifty people came. The majority of them were Russian refugees who did not speak English, and there was a substantial minority of Somali-Bantu refugees who did not speak English. I randomly split the Russians into two groups. Mr. Furman facilitated one group, and Jason Beck facilitated the other. There was a translator from the Russian population for each group. As my tape recorders ran out of power, neither of these two groups was recorded. As Mr. Furman did not take notes during or after his focus group, I was not able to use the information he gathered. Jason recorded the responses to the questions as they were provided, which was made easier due to the delay of translation. The Somali-Bantu focus group had more fluid attendance; the majority of participants arrived on site approximately twenty minutes late, and one woman, from Haiti, arrived twenty minutes into the session. Despite some side conversations during the focus group, participants seemed eager to answer my questions. This group was translated by Jama, a 17year-old son of one of the participants. The second focus group consisted of four people, all of whom are participants in the Family Self Sufficiency Program (FSS). This one fostered the most in depth discussion. Information was shared among group members as they explored the nuances of each question. The focus groups with the senior citizens took place in an open “community room.” Two focus groups were held at the same time, and there were other people in the room. At times As a final element of the research, and as an attempt to gain a more holistic understanding of the issues related to public housing, I interviewed Mallory 9 I would say, you know bettering yourself as a person in all aspects um, and, having enough income in your household to support your whole family outside of public housing. Oakes, the family self-sufficiency coordinator for the UMHA. As this research aims to examine why people are not yet self sufficient, Ms. Oakes was the best person to interview as she works directly with residents hoping to become self-sufficient. During an interview that lasted approximately 40 minutes, I asked Mallory about some of the questions that had arisen during the focus groups. Oakes has worked for the housing authority for nearly 18 years, so she was able to provide in-depth answers to my questions. The purpose of her position is to “help motivate the residents and if they’re already employed maybe look for more gainful employment, if they’re not employed, help them get employed. Um also help them as far as training, education-wise or on-the-job training.” With the help of the theories of concentrated poverty, social isolation and social capital, I provide residents’ explanations for living and staying in public housing, and then provide the motivations for leaving that a few participants articulated. Next, I explore thought processes of participants with regard to obtaining jobs and having concrete goals. Finally, I discuss the supports and services identified by the refugee/immigrant and the senior groups, which had the greatest needs. After completing each focus group session and the interview, I transcribed the data. The results were then coded an analyzed for this paper. The primary codes I used were loving public housing/not wanting to leave, wanting to leave, convenience, paying bills, security, explaining rationale (for living in public housing), opportunities/needs for children/youth, being/expecting to be coddled, attaining self-sufficiency, not being informed, and identifying needs of others. In my final analysis I selected the codes that best fit into my research question and had the richest information. Reasons for Residence The vast majority of participants were content to live in public housing. Many had complaints about heating or maintenance issues, but they would rather live here than in the private market. The waiting list for entering public housing is long; an individual may wait up to five years before moving in, according to Housing Authority Officials. In the six focus groups conducted, consisting of approximately 60 people, only five people stated that they wanted to leave; three young adults, one senior citizen, and one Somali Bantu. Overwhelmingly, participants stated that they enjoyed living in public housing and Results Based on my findings it is not possible to fully explain the reason the residents living in public housing are not self sufficient. However, the focus group discussions provide helpful insight into the threats and opportunities associated with gaining self-sufficiency from public housing. Here Mallory Oakes, FSS coordinator, defines self-sufficiency: 10 Tashmica: Well yea, you had the center in the back, then you had the park, then you had my church and I didn’t have to go nowhere. Now you gotta travel here and here and there just you know to go to church, to find something to do, you know […] that they had no intention of leaving. This may be related to the lack of prescriptive norms Coleman (1988) describes as a lack of social capital. Although it might be “better” for an individual who has enough income to move out of public housing to provide a space for another needy person, the individual will remain in public housing out of self-interest. A: If you could go back to subsidized housing, you would? Tashmica: I would, I loved to live in Washington Courts (group 1) When comparing one’s current experience in public housing with a previous experience in the private market, an individual’s rationale for staying in public housing becomes clearer: This is a common thread throughout the responses to this question. Over and over, participants expressed that they did not want to leave, that “it’s better here.” Even Mallory stated that it made more sense to live in public housing than in the private market for a number of reasons. It is easier, more convenient, much more affordable, and more secure. This may be indicative of the lack of other viable opportunities for quality housing so the reliability of thee social environment that the UMHA offers to its residents is an element of social capital that they were not willing to give up. Leantine: Where I come from I say this is luxury, seriously. Where I grew up I never grew up with stairs in the house, I grew up with elevators, and stairs was like twenty floors like one staircase so this is luxury. It’s beautiful it’s quiet you know, barbeque with your family and stuff. You can do your own thing, it’s beautiful, it’s beautiful. […] I’m not moving. (Group 1) One of the primary reasons people implied for remaining in public housing was fear. A fear of job loss, a fear that they could not make ends meet, or a specific fear of paying utilities, surrounded the conversations about living in public housing. One woman who was displaced with the reconstruction associated with HOPE VI shared her experience with the group: Tashmica: When I was living there, I was forced to move, I wouldn’t a moved. A: Why did they force you? Doris: We thought about that [buying a house], me and my husband, but then I was like, you know you gotta pay your bills, your taxes and if something go wrong it gonna come out of your pocket. (Group 2) Tashmica: cause they tore down— they tore it down! A: That’s right, they tore it down. I’m sorry—so is it a real burden for you to have been displaced? 11 Doris was paying the flat rate at UMHA: $600 per month for a one-bedroom apartment, the maximum payment. She clearly made enough money to rent on the private market or even to purchase a house, but she was afraid to take the risk because of the added responsibilities that are attached to living outside the public market. incomes. This is consistent with other findings that since the 1970s, public housing has moved from being a “temporary way station” for families to a permanent stop (Bratt 1989, Anthony 2005). The fear attached to moving to the private market may be the result of social isolation. If a resident is not regularly exposed to people with steady jobs who own their own homes, it may be difficult for them to think it would be possible for them to own a home. A lack of relationships with people who can provide information about having made the transition from public to private housing may be related to residents’ reluctance to take what they may perceive as a huge risk in moving out. Sheer expense was also a major rationale for living in public housing. Residents of Adrean Terrace related their experiences on the private market, explaining that they paid more than twice as much. One Somali-Bantu Participant related his story: Jama: He say before here he used to pay rent some other place. He used to pay bills like a lot more than now. He used to pay different payment, for heat, electricity, water. Now, so he came here, and me, myself I came here. He say the electricity and water and the house payment is all connected, it’s together. He say he don’t have any arguments about it, he’s fine, he’s happy, he likes it all. He say he used to pay $400 something before when he used to live somewhere before. And $400 for the house and the other payments so that is $400 for electricity and $400 for house payment and that is $800. (Group 5). Staying Informed and Getting Ahead In the subsidized housing units in Utica, there are various services available to residents. However, some residents are not as well informed as other residents due to their lack of social relationships, or a deficiency in social capital. Social Capital theory, as described by Coleman (1988) emphasizes the importance of social relationships that provide information that facilitates action. For example, Diane has been living in public housing for a little over a year. She knows she would like to leave public housing within a year or two and she sees that education will help her achieve her goal. In November she began a BOCES program that will result in her certification in nursing. At various times throughout the focus group, it was clear that she was not as well informed as the other three residents, who had lived their Other participants agreed that, despite working, they could not afford to pay for housing, utilities, and food. For the Somali-Bantu, public housing is not the 5-year “stepping stone” Mallory Oakes states is the purpose of public housing, but rather a permanent solution to a problem of not having the ability to support their large families on limited 12 ten or fifteen years, and had other family members living in the complex as well. to be the first time she is on this type of public assistance. She does not seem to know how things “work” as well as those who are more established in the community and who have spent extended periods of time on public assistance. In discussing homeownership, Diane was the only participant who was interested in purchasing one in the future. Doris, however, knew about a support that the UMHA provides to its residents: Diane: I was tryin’o find out. Dominick told me they had this program where they help you with school…” Cascilla: That’s the one she’s in … Diane: But who do you have to contact for that? …Ie’sha: Just tell Mallory and she give you papers and you take it to whoever and they look at the books and you fill out the paperwork and you get a check every month Doris: I think she explained it to me like if they raise your rent, whatever money was raised goes into an ESCROW account and that is saved for like one year or two, but then at the end you gotta be specific about what you wanna do with that money. But it goes into a ESCROW account. This is a case where Diane had heard about a program but did not know how it worked or how to get more information about it. This program would provide her with a government subsidy for going back to school. Furthermore, it would provide financial counseling and homeownership classes, elements of the program she did not know about, but was interested in when she heard about them during the focus group. Less than a minute later, Cascilla mentioned a reading program the UMHA had for kids during the summer; Diane’s response was, “Oh, they did?” Although it is likely that she received some passive information about the program, such as fliers in the mail, she clearly did not take advantage of it. Even though Cascilla does not have young children, she still knew about the program because she is a well-established community member, having lived in public housing for more than a decade. … Diane: Oh, really? Often, what the residents save in an ESCROW account is spent on cars or homes, the participants in the focus group told me. According to Mallory, “They can actually take it out and use it at any time during the 5 years for specific reasons, to help them maybe achieve their next goal.” As Diane is an aspiring homeowner, it would be useful for her to take advantage of this program. With more information she might be able to judge the benefits it may provide her family. While discussing health care, Diane complained of having to pay for her daughter’s prescriptions out of her own pocket. Immediately, the other three women present asked her which kind of Medicaid she had. They told her to change to Fidelus because it’s better and less expensive. All agreed that Fidelus is the best service provider. Diane has lived on her own since she was sixteen years old, but this seems 13 Diane’s case is probably not unlike other short-term users of public housing. New to the system, and without strong social relationships in her community, she does have as much knowledge about the programs available to her and her family. These programs could be used to support her and help her get on her feet more quickly if she were informed enough to take advantage of them. challenges may arise that prevent them from completing their education. In my first focus group, all participants but one had completed either high school or their GED. One student had finished only eleventh grade, but about half of them had one semester or more of “college.” However, for the majority of the participants, who were between the ages of 18 and 25, the goal was to go to college. Many of the young people wanted to get good jobs so they could pay their way through college. College was a general term used by all participants; they did not say what college they wanted to attend or that field they wanted to pursue. Lacking Concrete Goals The Family Self Sufficiency Program is concerned with helping individuals make enough money to support themselves financially independent of public assistance of any kind. Participation in such a program requires a significant time commitment for job-skills training, job searching, and working (Anthony 2005). Another major element of the program involves goal setting, short term and long term. This proves difficult for many residents of the Housing Authority and the HOPE VI target area. Upon probing participants the young adult focus group about what their aspirations were, the majority of responses were vacant stares. Only one participant, Vladimir, stated that he wanted to get a good government job and move out on his own: Vladimir: That’s what I’m lookin’ for… A good job with benefits, a state job, or a government job. For many young people in the United States, “getting in to college” is a concrete aspiration that they reach toward for the first eighteen years of their lives. Upon entering college, a student may aspire to succeed in school, but a larger goal is needed to follow graduation. At an elite university, that goal could be more education or an internship. These goals aspirations discussed frequently in the community and are expectations for students when they first enter school. For those living in poverty, getting to college may seem the ultimate goal. Upon arrival there, new A: A state job. So how are you going to get that job? Vladimir: A civil service test. A: And then you can get it? So you’re ready, you’re on track? Vladimir: A couple of references from the boss, that’s it. He also was the only one with a concrete plan about how he would meet his goals – take the civil service test. However, even that concrete plan is unclear, because Vladimir did not express what 14 type of work he wanted with the government. something she thought the housing authority could do for her: This speaks the fact that these young people were raised in a different social and cultural context than people who attend elite universities, where the vast majority of students intend to pursue some sort of professional work and have an idea of the field they would like to enter. The participants in the jobtraining program provided by the UMHA to young unemployed people were unable to state a job that they would like to do. They were unable to articulate problems they were facing and could not state in a concrete manner what their aspirations in life were. Ie’sha: Some type of training, any type of training. Anything… I would do construction too. I have three kids, I would do anything it takes for my babies. Construction, plumbing, anything. This is evidence that there is abstract willingness to learn a new skill or to take a class where she will be able to make enough money to support her children. However, she does not say what type of work she would like to do. Although she is willing to do “anything” she is not currently gainfully employed. Despite this lack of concrete goals, a strength of the participants in the first two focus groups is that they enrolled in programs to help them formulate and attain goals. These participants are already steps ahead of their peers who have not enrolled. The participants in the Job Crops program learned skills such as lawn mowing and painting, and the participants in the FSS program received subsidies to support their return to education or job skills training. At the very least, they were interested in making money and were motivated to try to find ways to make more money, which did not seem to be the case among the senior or refugee populations. These findings are evidence of Ryan and Deci’s self-determination theory and the facilitation of intrinsic motivation, social development, and well-being. They argue that “human beings can be proactive and engaged or, alternatively, passive and alienated, largely as a function of the social conditions in which they develop and function” (Ryan and Deci 2000, 68). It seems that the environment in which these young adults were raised has caused them to develop into more passive members of society who are less capable of determining for themselves what sort of future they would like to pursue, compared to those of a more privileged background. Immigrant Issues Participants in the FSS program at Gilmore Village (focus group 2) were more able to state goals, but plans were still not very concrete. Ie’sha enrolled herself in a GED program and stated Refugees enter the country with a specific cultural background and a history of hardship. Two major refugee populations in Utica are Russian and Somali Bantu. Since they are refugees 15 understand what you says to them but it is difficult for them to put it in writing. But it would be ok for you to teach them how to write, if you teach them how to read, so if you open like uh English classes, it would be better for them. (Group 5). and not immigrants, the circumstances of their pasts are typically traumatic, which makes it more difficult for them to readjust once they come to the United States. Among the participants of the three focus groups involving refugees from Russia and Somalia, fewer than one third could speak English at a level even close to conversational. This obviously limited their ability to communicate their needs and desires to the group. Not speaking English may carry with it a stigma that alienates these individuals from other parts of society. However, both ethnic groups were engaged in the conversations and were interested in sharing their points of view. Among the participants were four immigrants; three of them lived in Perretta Twin Towers— two from Puerto Rico and one from Italy—one, from Haiti, lived in Adrean Terrace. Milda has since learned how speak, read, and write in English and completed a college degree. All of the Somali-Bantu participants of this group as well as the Russian participants of Group 6 were very interested in ESL (English as a Second Language) classes. However, among the senior citizens, the situation was different. Although the three participants who were immigrants could speak English, it was not clear whether non-English speakers would be interested in classes. Carmen, from Puerto Rico, stated: Carmen: I donno if he wanna [learn English] because sometimes he don’ wanna go to school. English Language Learning classes and citizenship classes were of great interest to the refugees and immigrants. Milda, a Haitian immigrant who is 31, has been in the United States for fifteen years and has lived in Adrean Terrace for 9 years. She was able to provide some insight into the situation of a nonEnglish-speaking immigrant: A: But what if somebody came here? Carmen: Oh, I don’t know The situation in Perretta towers may be different because it is targeted toward the senior citizen and disabled population. There may be a greater sense of community among separate ethnic groups in the building, as described in Irene’s comment: Milda: So like some of them, not everyone can get into this country. Some of them they don’t know how to write, some of them they don’t know how to read. I taught myself all these things. When I first came here, I was the same thing. Some of them they don’t know how to write. Some of them, they’re very intelligent, but the problem is they don’t know how to write and they don’t know how to read. Just, you can talk to them, they Irene: It isolates them. They stay to themselves right, because they do not understand English very well. Like I communicated with one of the ladies over there really slowly but she really don’t understand what I’m saying at all times. Because I was uh, I knew, I had known German, and those 16 people had known German at one time, but you know I haven’t used my German in 30 years, so. translate one person’s comments, “She say she wanna know then the classes are gonna start.” Similarly, Milda explained what she knew about the process and expressed her interest in becoming a US citizen. A: So it’s really difficult to communicate with the Bosnians. And the people who speak Spanish… Each of the ethnicities seems to embody its own community within the housing units of the UMHA. Although it seems that native-born residents of public housing are concerned about them and would like to better understand them, the refugees I spoke with were unable to communicate. Among the Somali-Bantu, social cohesion can be seen in the community of families who depend on each other for emotional support. Similarly, among the Russian population, there seems to be a sense of family among the many participants. In both communities, there were multiple cases in which the older members of the communities looked to the young people to translate for them when I went door to door inviting residents to attend the focus group; at times the children were as young as five or six. Irene: None. But they speak Spanish among themselves and that bugs a lot of people a lot of times, because they think they are talking about people, and maybe they are, maybe they’re not. So they primarily stay to themselves and the English people stay by themselves. 3 Groups… within a community. (Group 3). Here, Irene expresses her desire to be able to communicate with her neighbors in the community and her frustrations with not being able to communicate. Although Carmen stated that she does not think her husband would like to learn English, Irene seems to think it is important in the creation of a cohesive community. Similarly, Randy, the African American participant who was part of the Somali Bantu group, said, “English classes, you know, we need someone to come in and teach English classes…” (Group 5). He peered around the table with a look of concern and compassion, as if he truly wanted to be able to communicate with these people and make their lives better. Perhaps as a result of refugees’ cultural experiences and lack of English knowledge it is more difficult for them to fathom “self sufficiency.” As they are new to the country, they are less likely to have informal networks they can tap to try to find work or to ask for advice about possible decisions they make. Networks of non-English-speaking refugees are very likely limited to people of their own ethnicities. This seems to limit social interactions and may perpetuate the problem of social isolation in the community in the form of poverty, lack Beyond the debate about learning English, refugees and immigrants also expressed interest in becoming US citizens. Both the Russian participants and the Somali Bantu participants were eager to begin the process of obtaining citizenship. When the classes were mentioned in group 5, everyone began to speak at once. Jama was only able to 17 of jobs, and lack of English skills in the community. winter, had a security guard to keep out non-residents or unwanted people, and there is a string to pull in each apartment if a resident has a medical emergency. Here again, the reliability of the environment seemed a very positive element in participants’ experiences with public housing, but one resident shared her frustrations with medical care: Senior Issues The senior living spaces offered by the housing authority bring together many low-income senior citizens and people with disabilities. Between Perretta Towers and Chancellor, there are over two hundred senior citizens utilizing UMHA housing units, which I hypothesized may cause concentration effects. As Galster, Cutsinger, and Malenga (2008) theorize, the consequences of concentration effects are poorer health, lower levels of educational achievement, fewer employment opportunities, and social isolation. Obviously the case is somewhat different for senior citizens, who live on a fixed income because few, if any are still employed. Seniors tend to have more severe and frequent health complaints because of their age, but the participants in the focus group seemed to have few severe health issues; all were well taken care of in terms of health care and were satisfied with their level of education. Only one participant said she wanted to go back to school, and most said they had completed at least their GED. Social isolation did not seem to be a problem either because various participants compared their experiences with other seniors or stated they had connections outside public housing, such as their families. Sharon: Alright, I’m with Secure Horizons, now I can’t get my medication… because it’s called co… something gap. They took away my, uh, the “d” on the social security… Ken: Part D is medicine isn’t it? Sharon: Part D on the Medicaid and stuff. They took that away. I can’t get prescription drugs, co pays are ridiculous, I can’t even pay for them! I’m in a stoop. And pissed. (Group 3) Here, as had happened in Group 2, one of the other women asked her why she didn’t change her policy to Fidelus. Sharon responded, “Because I have no idea of anything!” This is a case where social capital in the form of social relationships is lacking, which has consequences for her emotions and health. Each of the other participants in the focus group had enough medical coverage to pay for their doctor appointments and medicine without trouble. The seniors in both focus groups took advantage of the services offered to them through the housing authority, to a much greater extent than in the other housing units. They participated in BINGO, and used the computer. Participants in both groups said they were interested in learning how to use Senior citizens reported general satisfaction with their experiences in public housing. They felt safe because the housing authority kept the area around the complex free of ice during the 18 the computer, and that they would like a larger computer lab. There are two computers for about 120 apartments. Another common desire in both groups was to have exercise machines or a person to come in and teach exercises to the group. Finally, both groups spend considerable time discussing trips they would like to take as a group. opinion there were not enough buses available to give him the mobility he needed. It seemed like he did not have a family network to lean on in Utica if he needed something. Gina voiced the importance of a family network in getting transportation: Gina: Once in a while I depend on my sister. She’s an ____. I need transportation in the wintertime, because I’m a walker in the summer, I can walk miles and miles it doesn’t bother me. In the wintertime, I’m terrified to put my feet outside. I can’t walk to that sign (points). If I have to go to the doctor, or the bank, or to get my pills…We need someone like that (Group 4). Theresa: Well I think trips would be nice. The other seniors, you know how their programs are […] it would be nice if they brought us to different places, like to northern Utica, like to different places (Group 3) It seems like Theresa, and the other participants who nodded their heads in agreement after her statement, wanted to be treated as senior citizens were treated in private senior living facilities. Nearly all participants had at least one idea about a trip they would like to take. Thus, family networks seem to be an important issue related to whether a senior resident feels satisfied with the amount of transportation offered by the housing authority. Transportation seemed to be an important issue: Unlike other residents of public housing, fear of job loss is not a factor keeping them in public housing. Rather, fear for the safety of their bodies is more prominent. These individuals know their weaknesses and depend on the housing authority to provide them with the support they need. Due to the reliability of the facility and its employees, it seems that the majority of residents are content to live there and do not hope to move out. Irene: From these housing complexes you have grocery buses going so if you can’t get out or walk to a grocery store you can go once a week to Hanoford, once every two weeks to um Chanantry’s and once a month to Walmart. Now it is free transportation the housing has gotten for us. (Group 3) Irene was satisfied with the services she received here, but she also has a daughter who works across the street who could take her shopping or on other errands if needed. On the other hand, Jose (Group 4), who had lived in New York City before coming to Utica, found transportation a large issue. In his Discussion and Conclusion In this research, I sought to learn more about how residents in public housing construct their experiences there and why they are not yet “selfsufficient.” The goal of the UMHA at the 19 outset of the study was to find out why residents were not self-sufficient and what services could be provided to help them become self-sufficient, in order that Mr. Furman can use the data as rationale for applying for grants to meet these needs. The findings of this study can be used in multiple ways. It will be useful to the housing authority itself. Although the managers of the housing authority often have “community meetings” with residents, discussions primarily revolve around maintenance issues. This research further provides important insight into the reasons people live in public housing. Far from feeling stigmatized for living in public housing, the vast majority of participants felt extremely satisfied, some even privileged, to live there. Lack of income is only part of the reason people live in public housing. The more important element perhaps is the security attached to public housing residence: if you lose your job you will not get tossed out on the street. A $50 minimum rent is unmatched in the private market. The dependability of the social environment that Coleman describes as an element of social capital seems to be of particular importance in this community. intends to remain in public housing for the rest of their lives because they cannot afford the private housing market. Concentration effects do not seem to be as present among seniors, who struggle to find meaning and purpose in a fixed income experience. There is “no way out” for seniors. Concentration effects are evident in the results regarding a lack of motivation. It seemed that most participants were not motivated to move away from public housing. As Kane (1987) suggests, “the perception of helplessness can be inferred from the environment, without direct experience of failure.” Without positive role models and shared experiences of friends and relatives who live on the private market, residents may feel helpless. Carmen, from the senior housing site, said, “the people that move out of here, they come back” (Group 3). Residents felt they couldn’t afford to move out of public housing, even if they had not tried it. Others remarked that public housing was “luxury” compared to any other type of housing they had previously inhabited. The residents’ failure to effectively support themselves and their families in the private housing market may have destroyed any motivation an individual may have had to live outside public housing. This larger issue poses a threat to the success of self-sufficiency programs in the UMHA. The senior citizens living in public housing who participated in this study wanted to be treated with respect. The requests they had with regard to additional services would improve their quality of life and may take little effort on the part of the housing authority. The problem with this is, as always, is lack of funds. A difference between Perretta Towers and the rest of the UMHA housing units is that self-sufficiency is not a goal for any residents. All but one Self-sufficiency, as defined by the housing authority (note Mallory’s quotation at the beginning of the results section), is not on the agenda of many of the participants in the focus groups. When I began this study, Mr. Furman 20 wanted to know why residents were not self- sufficient and what the housing authority could provide to them to make them self-sufficient. Consistent with Anthony’s (2005) findings, young adults (aged 25-40) tended to have a greater interest in attaining self-sufficiency than older adults (aged over 40). Refugees in public housing did not seem to understand the concept of selfsufficiency and stated that they would like to remain in public housing for a long period of time, perhaps for the rest of their lives. The disconnect between the goals of the administrators and those being administered to is problematic. As Mallory stated, “You can bring a camel to the water, but you can’t make it drink.” The opportunity exists for all non-senior residents to participate in the Family Self Sufficiency program, but only a small minority participates. Despite the efforts of the housing authority, if residents are not self-motivated enough to participate they will probably not achieve the goal of self-sufficiency. There is much need for further research, as this project faced some limitations. One limitation of this research is that certain populations within the housing authority were underrepresented: US citizens who do not take part in self-sufficiency programs. My identity as a young, white, female student of an elite university may have influenced how people responded to my questions. They might have omitted experiences that they thought I could not relate to. For focus groups five and six, it may have been better to conduct the entire discussion in the native language of the participants. In-depth interviews with residents of public housing who participate in job training programs such as the Ross program or FSS could provide more insight about their motivations for participation in the programs. Perhaps this type of information could be helpful to aid in the motivation of other residents to participate. Although quantitative data exists that compares participants in FSS programs with people who do not participate, their data would be strengthened by qualitative data. Indepth interviews could demonstrate qualitative differences between the participants and non-participants, as well as between those who complete the programs and those who do not. Additionally, a longitudinal study could evaluate the effectiveness of FSS programs. The findings here build on the work of Owens-Manley, Coleman, and Curley because it provides qualitative data to explain why some people choose to remain in public housing. The participants’ inability to articulate aspirations or goals suggested that social isolation was a problem in the communities. As Curley argues, residents of public housing seem to be isolated from positive role models and to thus continue in the cycle of poverty. Although FSS is available to all residents of public housing, Mallory stated that only 77 families take part, out of over 600 housing units (this excludes the senior residences). Another space for more research is in the long-term outcomes of HOPE VI. It would be interesting to find out five or ten years after a resident has been relocated, as Tashmica was, what their educational and occupational outcomes are. Poverty still exists in Utica, and 21 although the UMHA seems to be working hard to improve the situation, it is essential to keep investigating the successes and failures of programs alongside the needs, desires, and aspirations of residents. Finally, it would be interesting to investigate how the people on the UMHA waiting list survive in the time between they qualify to be placed on the wait list, and their placement in a UMHA apartment. Perhaps if residents of public housing knew more about the people waiting, they would be more likely to move out in order to make space for them. should be researched and that information used to develop a culturally relevant “manual” that will help with readjustment and provide recommendations and resources for gaining self-sufficiency. Third, invest in a community organizer. Fourth, create a strong community council that comes together around issues other than maintenance, and finally, introduce computer labs and classes accessible for all residents. The purpose of this paper was to understand why residents of the Utica Municipal Housing Authority were not yet self-sufficient. Self-sufficiency, as defined by the head of the FSS program is bettering yourself as a person in all aspects and having enough income in your household to support your whole family outside of public housing. That kind of self-sufficiency was not an explicit goal of any of the participants in the focus groups. Diana was interested in moving out of public housing because she wanted to buy a house, but she was one of the few who expressed this interest. Therefore, the framing of public housing must change. The definition of self-sufficiency and the establishment of self-sufficiency as a goal for every resident are essential if that is the goal of the employees of the UMHA. If it is not possible for all residents to become self sufficient (according to the definition above), perhaps a new definition is needed. Most importantly, there must be alignment between the residents and employees to achieve the best results. The de-concentration of poverty is going to take more than just rebuilding a few buildings in one community. It will take a serious multifaceted investment in a large community of people. It will probably be a process that takes a long period of time. Despite the offerings of the FSS and Ross programs, a relatively small number of people take advantage of them. Something has to change for these residents to take the step to change their minds about living in public housing. Recommendations There are infinite possibilities for addressing the issues presented in this paper. The public housing authority has become an important source of social capital for residents. Therefore, in order to better serve the residents’ needs and improve their self-sufficiency, I will make five recommendations. First, the definition of self-sufficiency must be discussed and aligned from the time a resident enters public housing. Second, the cultural background of residents In this effort, it is absolutely essential to think critically about “selfsufficiency potential.” Which residents 22 have the potential to be self sufficient, and which do not? Senior citizens who live on a fixed income, for example, have little potential compared to a household with two able-bodied adults and few children. Therefore, I propose that every new resident has a consultation in which a caseworker works with him or her to establish an action plan to improve his or her self-sufficiency. This would result in an agreement between the resident and the UMHA regarding how to improve self-sufficiency. The income they save from paying a lower rent could go to their children’s education, savings for a car or house. At this time, the caseworker would also inform the new resident about the Family Self Sufficiency Program and the Ross program, as well as other opportunities the UMHA has to offer. If the resident is a senior citizen, the UMHA should also have a consultation with that individual to ensure that they have medical care, are aware of existing programs in the UMHA, and perhaps provide ideas for nearby volunteerism or social justice projects. Increased community involvement could promote a better standard of living among senior citizens. This consultation could also be useful in establishing a plan for English language learning for residents who came to the United States recently, either as immigrants or as refugees. The caseworker should maintain profiles of all residents: family size and ages, skills, aspirations, education needs, and selfsufficiency action plan. Although this will only help new residents, eventually all residents will have had this service when they move in. The purpose of these efforts is to ensure that upon a resident’s placement in public housing, he or she clearly understands the purpose of public housing and how their life will improve as a result of living there. The establishment of a culturally sensitive manual for residents who came to the United States as refugees can also serve an important purpose in leading them toward self-sufficiency. A community organizer from the refugee population could be hired to compile the manual. First, the HA must understand the background of the refuges. Do they want to adopt the American dream? If the writer of the manual understands the culture they are dealing with, they will be able to align the text with the values of its recipients. If there is a misalignment between the federal desires for residents of public housing and the abilities of the residents, the issue must be addressed. Once that research has been completed, the manual would include important contact people in different fields, steps to follow for taking English classes, completing a GRE or other educational opportunities, where to turn for psychological support, and other things. This manual could then be personally distributed and explained in the residents’ native language. The community organizer would stay on as a staff member and would serve as a caseworker for members of their ethnic group. More than one person could occupy this position, depending on the number of ethnic groups in the community. A community organizer could aid in the strengthening and deepening of inter-residential ties has the potential to aid in self-sufficiency. The UMHA could 23 document stories of individuals who have moved out of public housing and found success, in the form of a monthly newsletter or on a bulletin board located where people often go. This could spark other residents’ desire to move out. Another tactic involves taking time to recognize skills within the community and encouraging residents to use existing skills creatively to get income can increase their self-confidence and improve community relations. The community organizer could conduct a capacity survey with residents to see what experiences and local knowledge they possess. Additionally, associations within the community could be established to capitalize on these skills, or provide childcare to working mothers, or provide support for newcomers to the community. A more casual, open forum could occur on a monthly basis where individuals can discuss what they are struggling with. The recognition of existing knowledge within the community and provision of space to share that information could alleviate the financial or emotional struggles an individual is going through. Finally, access to computers is essential to low-income individuals of the current epoch. From children’s homework assignments to adult’s job application process, a computer and a printer is extremely important in the self-sufficiency of residents of public housing. Students reported receiving lower grades because their homework assignments were handwritten rather than typed, and adults stated that they needed computer access in order to get a job. Computer classes could also build the skill sets of individuals. Once an individual has mastered word processor, excel, and PowerPoint, he or she will have access to jobs such as administrative assistant, data entry, or secretary. Furthermore, internet games are useful in teaching children as well as adults new vocabulary words, a helpful support for English Language Learners. There is much to be done, but there are a multitude of exciting options for the improvement of public housing for residents. This improvement could lead to greater self-sufficiency among residents, which would then allow the UMHA to serve a larger number of people. However, these efforts alone may prove to be lacking. It is still better to live in public housing than in the private market. To address this issue, I would recommend lifting the cap on what residents pay for their apartments. That way, if a resident is making so much money that they do not want to pay 1/3 of it to UMHA for their apartment, they can chose to move out. Then, they could possibly find a private residence that is less expensive. A more gradual move from public to private housing could also be helpful: after a certain point, residents A strong community council would be the final step in strengthening and deepening inter-residential ties. It could also improve communication between the UMHA and residents. If the community council had some power to make decisions about their community, residents might take more ownership over the place they live. They would feel more agency within the community and have the potential to become more independent. 24 could have to pay for utilities or for maintenance so that they would have the skills to keep a budget. The issue is many-sided but every side offers an opportunity. Many thanks to Jason Beck for his substantial contributions to this project, to the Utica Municipal Housing Authority for partnering with me, Professor Benson for her advising, and my friends at the ESS 2010 conference for helpful feedback. Works Cited 2003. “When Hope Falls Short: HOPE VI, Accountability and the Privatization of Public Housing.” Harvard Law Review. Vol 116 no 5. pp 1477-1499. Curley, Alexandra M. 2005. “Theories of Urban Poverty and Implications for Public Housing Policy.” Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare. 2007. “HUD’s Public Housing Program.” U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. <http://www.hud.gov/renting/phprog.cf m> Ellen, Ingrid Gould. 2008. “Spillovers and Subsidized Housing.” Pp 1440158 in Revisiting Rental Housing: Policies, Programs and Priorities. Ed Nicolas Retsinas and Eric S. Delsky. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press. Anthony, Jerry. 2005. “Family Self Sufficiency Programs: An Evaluation of Program Benefits and Factors Affecting participants’ Success.” Urban Affairs Review. Vol 41 no 1. Pp 64- 91. Sage Publications. Gilderbloom, John Ingram with Michael Brazley and Michael Anthony Campbell. 2008. “Hope VI: A Dream or Nightmare?” pp 115-143 in Invisible City. Austin, Texas: University of Texas Press. Halpern, David. 2005. Social Capital. Polity Press, Malden, MA. Bratt, Rachel. 1989. “Rebuilding a lowincome housing policy.” Philadelphia: Temple University Press. Hawkins, Robert Leibson. 2005. “From Self-Sufficiency to Personal and Family Sustainability: A New Paradigm for Social Policy.” Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare. Vol 21, no 4. pp 77-91. Coleman, James S. 1988. “Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital.” American Journal of Sociology, University of Chicago. Kane, Thomas J. 1987. “Giving Back Control: Long-Term Poverty and Motivation.” Social Service Review. Pp 405-418 Crane, Jonathan. 1991 “The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing.” The American Journal of Sociology. Vol 96, no. 5. Pp 1226-1250. University of Chicago Press. < http://www.jstor.org/stable/2781341?seq= 4> Katz Reid, Carolina, Edward Liebow, and Gabrielle O’Malley. 2006 “Building Community during HOPE VI Redevelopment: Lessons from a Seattle 25 the Facilitation of Intrinsic Motivation, Social Development, and Well-Being.” University of Rochester. American Psychological Association, vol 55, no. 1 pp 68-78. Case Study.” Human Organization. Vol 65, no 2. Kingsley G. Thomas, Jennifer Johnson, and Kathryn L.S. Pettit. 2003. “Patterns of Section 8 Relocation in the HOPE VI Program.” Journal of Urban Affairs. vol 25, no 4. pp 42-447. Rosenthal, Gilbert A. 2004. “Hope after HOPE VI.” Journal of Housing and Community Development. Vol. 61 no. 3. Pp 19-26. Massey, D.S., and Denton, N.R. 1993. American Apartheid: Segregation and the Making of the Underclass. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. South, Scott J. and Kyle D. Crowder. 1999. “Neighborhood Effects on Family Formation: Concentrated Poverty and Beyond.” American Sociological Review, Vol. 64, no 1 pp 117-132. Marquis, Gerald P. and Soumen Ghosh. 2008. “Housing Opportunities for People Everywhere (HJOPE VI): Who gets back in?” Social Science Journal. Vol 45 no 3. pp 401-418. Sugrue, Thomas J. 1996. The Origins of the Urban Crisis: Race and Inequality in Postwar Detroit. Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. Mouw, Ted. 2006. “Estimating the Causal Effect of Social Capital: A review of Recent Research.” Annual Review of Sociology. Pp 79-102. Wilson, W.J. 1987. The Truly Disadvantaged. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Newman, Sandra J. and Joseph M. Harkness. 2002. “The Lonog Term effects of Public Housing on Self-Sufficiency.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Vol 21 no 1 pp 21-33 Owens-Manley, Judith ed. et al. 2007. “The HOPE VI Project- Utica, NY. Year 4 Program Evaluation.” The Arthur Levitt Public Affairs Center, Hamilton College, Clinton, New York. Popkin, Susan J. Diane K. Levy, and Larry Buron. (2009). “Has HOPE VI Transformed Residents’ Lives? New Evidence from the HOPE VI Panel Study.” Housing Studies. Vol 24, no 4. pp 477-502. Ryan, Richard M. and Edward L. Deci. 2000. “Self Determination Theory and 26 Implicit Discrimination in Major League Baseball: Marginality Decisions based on Minor League Offensive Production Mark Kanter, Class of 2010 While Major League Baseball employs a wide variety of races and ethnicities, including white, African-American, Hispanic, and Asian players, it is possible that professional rosters may not be organized based on talent alone. Although studies have shown that salary discrimination is no longer present in Major League Baseball, this paper explores the possibility of a marginality bias in the sport, allowing for whites of comparable ability to non-whites to receive a roster spot due to an implicit bias in managerial and organizational positions. This possibility of marginality is explored within the MLB for the 2009 season by regressing a variable indicating whether a player was called up to a major league team against a player’s race and variety of control variables. Results from OLS regressions indicate that on average, neither blacks nor Hispanics must exhibit production numbers superior to whites in order to be “called up” to the major league level. However, it does appear that non-white players perform, on average, to a greater offensive level than their white competitors within the minor league system. While a player’s race may not contribute to management’s decision to promote them, this study does find a variety of variables that do significantly affect such a decision. Introduction Jackie Robinson’s debut for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1947 opened the doors for the addition of non-white players into Major League Baseball. Once this invisible barrier faded, Negro baseball leagues began to function more as a minor league system for AfricanAmerican players desiring to sign professional contracts, before finally disappearing completely by 1960 (Mills, 2003). While Hispanics made up only 3 percent of MLB rosters in 1950, this representation increased to around 20 percent by 1990 (Gonzalez, 1996). Today, 27 percent of MLB ballplayers are Hispanic, with blacks representing about 10 percent of the league (Lapchick, 2009). Although whites have made up between 58-60 percent of rosters since the late 1990s, there still exists a worry about two separate phenomena—“centrality” and “marginality”. In a 1970 study done by Loy and McElvogue (which focused on professional football), they proposed that whites are more likely to be employed in central positions, such as quarterback, center, and kicker; minorities, they argued, could be found in positions relying not on leadership, but athleticism and instinct, such as running back or receiver. This same idea of centralization has been applied to baseball. John Phillips defined centrality in his 1980 study as “the tendency to exclude qualified black players from positions which involve interactions with and control of the action of teammates.” In 1999, Margolis and Piliavin introduced 27 this issue to baseball, claiming a disproportionate amount of whites centered in the roles of pitcher and catcher, with blacks usually in one of the three outfield positions. They created a set of control variables (such as size, power, fielding range, speed, and age) to include alongside race, and ran a regression to determine the relationship between race and position centrality. Each position was given a centrality ranking – for example, they determined catchers to have a 1 rating (most central), corner outfielders a 5 rating, and the least central, the designated hitter, a 6. The regression determined that on average, whites exhibit greater centrality over blacks by 1.18 points in the 6-point scale (this result was statistically significant). However, this measure of centrality was an arbitrary number decided upon by the authors, and although they reached a significant conclusion, their results leave little to be expanded upon. to argue that running backs and centerfielders shouldn’t be considered vital to their respective sports. So, these positions where measuring ability is difficult (which they conclude are positions in which batting is least important) are likely to have a lesser proportion of blacks (they don’t look at Latinos) – essentially, they propose that when managers have no specific criteria, they instead consider race. They claim that catcher, shortstop, and second base are the three positions where batting is least considered. To account for this, this study will use offensive production statistics as independent variables to remove this aspect from the call-up decision, additionally running a regression which considers data for outfielders only. Similar research by G. Gonzalez (1996) supports the stacking hypothesis for Latino baseball players. The paper objects that position stacking and centrality is solely a black and white race issue, and uses statistics (not a regression) to analyze Latino positioning over time. They find Latino players have been stacked in the positions of second base and shortstop from the period of 1950-1992, but also conclude that this goes against the centrality hypothesis, as these infield positions require “interaction and control” central to the game (Gonzalez, 1996). Yet this still raises a problem – even if centrality is no longer the greatest issue, if black players are disproportionately stacked in the outfield, with Latinos in the middle infield, there is likely to be increased competition with those of the same ethnicity for a select amount of positional openings. If managers are My study also aims to expand on specific research published in 1994 by Lavoie and Leonard, which proposes a separate explanation for discrimination in baseball. Rather than believe that players are moved to specific positions based on their ability to lead (as determined by subconscious discrimination, the aforementioned “centrality” hypothesis), they propose a new “uncertainty hypothesis,” stating that positional segregation occurs most when it becomes difficult to objectively measure performance (Lavoie and Leonard, 1994). Their central concern with the centrality hypothesis is that those positions defined as “central” have been done so “ex post facto” – it is tough 28 considering Latino players specifically adept at these roles, it will likely be tougher for an up-and-coming Latino outfielder or pitcher to arrive to the majors in that same position. In my research, I am not looking to consider stacking by position, but rather the issue of roster competition. If certain ethnicities are struggling more than others to reach the majors, this bias should be revealed. one prove that whites are being selected over more-qualified members of a different race? Phillips relied purely on statistics to analyze the possibility of marginality, comparing batting averages and slugging percentages of whites and blacks for the 20 year period of 19601980. He concluded that the practice of marginalization was indeed present for the two decades, with blacks on average having a batting average around 15-25 points higher than whites, and slugging percentages about 40 points higher. Thus, extrapolated out, Phillips concluded that on average, blacks from 1960-1980 would gain about 15 to 25 more hits than whites per 1000 at-bats. He does note that the separation between statistics for the races begins to weaken as the years progress, with a difference of under 10 points by 1980. Although Phillips reports some data on Hispanic ball-players, he states that even in 1980, there were only 37 Hispanic players on professional teams, so he did not wish to derive any type of conclusive evidence specific to them. Even if Margolis and Piliavin have shown that blacks are in positions less central to the game, it has been noted that blacks are overrepresented on baseball rosters, experience no salary discrimination, and on average, are more productive than white baseball players (Lavoie and Leonard, 1994). In Diamonds in the Rough: The Untold Story of Baseball, Zoss and Bowman also discuss this idea, looking at data from 1968 that shows an overrepresentation of blacks among the league’s top hitters as compared to the average player (1996). However, it seems strange that blacks are more productive than their white counterparts; might this mean that more marginal whites are making it to the majors? What if even more blacks should be participating in MLB, but for some reason, are stuck in the minor leagues? Phillips’ study has three potential drawbacks. First, his conclusions are drawn only from a variety of statistics, rather than basing them on an actual model. Additionally, his statistics are from players at the professional level, after they have been chosen to compete in MLB as everyday players, thus prohibiting him from looking at how these players ended up in the major leagues. Many players may perform substantially better once out of the minor leagues, and with his study, there is no way to observe why certain players were chosen to compete at this level. Finally, his focus on black players Although Phillips considered centrality in his study, his greater emphasis focused on marginality, defined as “the tendency to exclude blacks of marginal ability in favor of whites” (1980). Unlike salary data and productivity, measuring marginality becomes a more difficult task. How can 29 compared to white is less relevant today, due to the large increase in Hispanic players from 1980 to the present time. However, although the percentage of blacks in MLB may have decreased, a recent vocal presence from a few black major leaguers has brought the issue of race back into consideration. Orlando Hudson, a black infielder still active in the major leagues, claims that due to their race, qualified black free agents are not getting as many quality contract offers as their talent deserves (Passan, 2010). While others argue that it is these players’ age, declining ability, and the changing desires of major league management that are to blame for the lack of a suitable contract, Hudson affirms that “there are some things in the game that shouldn’t be going on,” alluding to racism without explicitly stating the word. Additionally, veteran outfielder Torii Hunter, expressed discouragement that many Hispanic ballplayers are thought by fans to be black, going as far to refer to his Hispanic coworkers as “imposters” (Lacques, 2010). While Hunter’s qualm rests with the excessive hiring of Hispanic players, it also indicates that there is an observable amount of discontent within the nonwhite baseball community. Finally, Milton Bradley’s claim from the 2009 season that he was often the victim of racial abuse from the outfield at Wrigley Field suggests that even with complete integration, unobservable factors may exist affecting non-white major leaguers. to the major leagues at some point in the year, as well as those who were not. Each of these additions should provide a better indication of the differences between players of different races and ethnicities. In my study I am expanding on the research in Major League Baseball surrounding centrality and marginality. Specifically, I compare white players with black players and those of Hispanic background in an effort to determine if non-white minor league players must have offensive skills significantly better than their white competitors in order to be placed on a professional roster. If black and Hispanic players must perform better to be called up to a major league team, this becomes relevant for both players and baseball organizations. Although it would be difficult to prove that preferences for white players were actually being exhibited, this study would allow non-white players to benefit from becoming aware that an implicit discrimination was taking place, with their white counterparts of comparable ability being chosen instead of them. Additionally, if organizations are not choosing players based completely on talent, they are limiting their potential to win, thus not maximizing possible profits for their business. Considering that fans do not care about the racial make-up of their team (Phillips, 1980), there is no reason not to employ those players most likely to improve a team’s chances at success. My study includes an empirical model employing both black and Hispanic players, and uses offensive production of players at the minor league level, including those who were called up I use individual player data taken from www.thebaseballcube.com of players from the 2009 MLB season who played on a team’s AAA affiliate (each 30 professional team’s most competitive minor league team) at some point throughout the season. I regress a variable indicating whether a player was called up to the major leagues against a variety of offensive production variables, a player’s race, and variables measuring a player’s age and their personal experience in the major leagues. While I expect to see offensive production highly correlated with a player being called up, the main focus of the regression is to determine if a relationship exists between players entering the majors and their respective race. The results of my OLS regression indicate that black and Hispanic baseball players do not face a significant disadvantage at gaining promotion when compared to their white counterparts. The results suggest that a marginality bias is no longer apparent today, appearing to allow nonwhite players a similar path to the major leagues. excellent fielding skills may be considered valuable to a professional team over one showing offensive success with poor defensive capabilities. These catchers may end up transferring to a different position or finding a job as a designated hitter. Only four catchers at the major league level reached the number of at bats needed to qualify for the batting crown in 2009,1 with only three of them batting .300 or above. Additionally, of catchers qualifying for this study, over two-thirds were white, and without any of the remaining catchers being black, including them in the study seemed more of a hindrance than a constructive addition. Asian baseball players were also excluded from the study due to an insufficient amount of players fitting the necessary qualifications. A total of 164 players fit the criteria discussed above for this specific season. The sample includes 97 white players, 28 black players, and 39 players who have been identified as Hispanic. Data and Variables The website from which data was obtained contains all MLB team rosters from the 2009 season. By analyzing each roster, players with 50 or more minor league at bats at the AAA level who also obtained 10 or more at bats at the professional level for the 2009 season were included in my data. Pitchers were not included in the sample, as their offensive production is not considered by organizations when determining the best level of baseball in which they should play. Additionally, catchers have been excluded from this study for two reasons. For one, a catcher’s offensive production is not traditionally seen as their main contribution to the game. A catcher with These 164 players make up only half of the data necessary to complete the study. As each of these players was called up to the major leagues in 2009, a group of minor league players who were not moved from AAA to the majors was needed in order to identify if certain races were favored. After finding the players who received a call-up, a random number generator was used to select five players from each AAA team who remained in the minor leagues for the entire 2009 season. Like the previous sample, pitchers and catchers were 1 Ironically, Joe Mauer, one of the four qualifiers, won the title with his .365 average. 31 excluded, and players needed at least 50 at bats to be included, as offensive statistics for players beneath this threshold are likely to exhibit much greater variance that is unrepresentative of their actual talent. Of these 150 players randomly selected, 102 were white, 14 were black, and 34 were of Hispanic origin. specific regression. It is also noted whether a player is a rookie or veteran. A player is considered a rookie if they had played in less than 50 MLB games at the end of the 2009 season. Organizations are sometimes judged by fans and columnists based on the number of prospects they move through their minor league system; if a team is able to have their previous draft picks succeed in the majors, the organization and its scouts are likely to receive continued support. Due to this, rookies may not need as impressive minor league statistics as players who shuffle in and out of the major leagues; however, for older players who have never had significant playing time in the major leagues, this attribute may be harmful to their value, hurting their chances for a call-up. A player is considered a veteran if they have played in more than 500 major league games. Veterans may have been sent down to AAA to work on a specific aspect of their game or for rehabilitation purposes, and their production in the minor leagues may be less important than a player trying to establish themselves on a professional roster. Overall age is also considered, as older players may find it more difficult than young talent to reach the major leagues. Each player’s profile on The Baseball Cube includes a photograph of the player and the location of their birthplace. Black players were identified by their photograph, while Hispanic players were found based on a mix of their birthplace and physical characteristics. All players born in Latin America, South America, or other Spanish-speaking countries were included in the sample. Players identified as black Hispanics were placed into the appropriate category based on their birthplace – for example, a black Hispanic born outside of the U.S. was considered Hispanic, while those born within the U.S. were considered black. Three variables specific to offensive production were included for each player. Batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage were each considered as independent variables (see definitions in the glossary). Additionally, each player’s position was noted, as perhaps there are differences in the effects of a marginality bias due to this – for example, outfielders are generally considered to be better offensive players, while infielders (specifically shortstops and secondbasemen) may be awarded with playing time based more on their defensive ability. This issue is addressed later in a Also included are a few variables measuring diversity within each team’s organization. The study considers whether the manager of a player’s team is non-white, as well as the team’s general manager, as those people higher up in the system may often be making choices independent of a coach’s desires. It is possible non-white managers and general managers treat potential non32 white players differently than white managers, either not exhibiting any bias whatsoever, or perhaps even a bias in favor of non-white players. Non-white owners were not considered in the study, as only one professional team has a nonwhite majority owner.2 these teams exhibited an ease of promotion different than white players. Summary Statistics Before introducing an empirical model, it may be beneficial to analyze summary statistics to get an idea of the differences between each race’s production within the sample. Totaling the race breakdown for the two samples (players called up and those who spent the entire year on a AAA affiliate), 199 of the 314 players were white, 42 were black, and 73 were Hispanic. The 42 black players in the sample represent 13.3% of the total players identified for the study, while the 73 players of Hispanic origin are about 23.2% of the total players. Whites make up the remainder, at 63.3%. The amount of non-whites in the sample is a bit different than their representation in all of the MLB, with blacks here representing 13, rather than 10 percent, and Hispanics at 23 percent, rather than 27; however, these differences appear small enough to still likely portray an accurate picture of the league’s racial make-up. Finally, the study observes whether a team plays within a city containing a high percentage of nonwhite citizens. Perhaps management takes the fan base into consideration when constructing a team, preferring to draft or promote non-white players to allow the team’s diversity to coincide with the city itself. With the majority of MLB teams playing in large, diverse metropolitan areas, to be considered a diverse city for this study teams must play in a metropolitan area with nonHispanic whites representing about a third of the population. Specifically, teams playing in cities with a nonHispanic white population below 37% are considered diverse for this study.3 For variables indicating a non-white manger, non-white general manger, and diverse city population, new variables were constructed for the regression interacting a player’s race with the aforementioned variables; in doing this, the analysis will show whether non-white players on First, as the basis of this study is to conclude whether non-white players being called up must exude greater offensive productivity than whites, it may be beneficial to look at the data for those players who have been called up. The average offensive production at the AAA level for these players in the sample is outlined below in Table 1. It is clear from the data that whites in the sample exhibited a batting average of about 20 points lower than the non-whites. To illustrate how significant this 20 point difference is, it is interesting to consider 2 As of the 2010 season, Arte Moreno, majority owner of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, is the only non-white owner of an MLB team. 3 While this percentage appears arbitrary, the majority of cities clustered in either the 50-70% or 20-40% range; in order to capture a representative amount of extremely diverse cities, the 37% cutoff was implemented. 33 batting averages in the major leagues for the 2009 season. For players with an average of at least 3.1 at bats per team game, the top 56 players in the league hit better than .290, while the top 100 hit .270 or better4. Considering that only 102 batters in the MLB qualified for the necessary at bats, a difference of 20 points can propel a player from the lowest percentile to right around the league average. study. It appears that the disparity between races may not be as extreme as it appeared before. While blacks and Hispanics still have an average batting average greater than whites, the difference is reduced to 5-10 points. Additionally, white slugging is no longer lowest, now centered relatively evenly between Hispanics and blacks. Again, Hispanics experienced the lowest slugging percentage, this time to a much greater extent than before. Hispanics who were not called up exhibited an average slugging percentage a full 40 points below whites, and over 60 points below blacks. The difference of slugging for Hispanics not called up and those who were turns out to be almost 100 points, an enormous difference, that if anything, shows that management may keep a particular eye out for Hispanics with the ability to hit for power, as this category is shown to be weakest for Hispanics in both samples. A table summarizing statistics for call-ups and non-call-ups can be found in the appendix. All three measures included in the tables above are included as independent variables within the later regression, as the decision-makers on each ballclub may weight certain production measures greater than others. For on-base percentage and slugging percentage, on average, whites and Hispanics appear to have more similar statistics, with whites lower in on-base percentage and higher in slugging, while blacks exhibit greater averages in all categories. However, the most notable difference appears to be batting average, where the .271 average for whites stands far below the numbers for other races. However, a better sample to consider might include the players who were not called up. Doing so should present a clearer picture as to whether non-whites who didn’t get called up achieved offensive statistics superior to whites who were called up. Before furthering the study, this might help in predicting the possible outcome. Production numbers for all players not called up are listed below in Table 2. The average age of each player in the total sample is 26.9, with whites being the oldest at 27.3 years of age, followed by Hispanics at 26.4, and blacks at 26.1. While these numbers may not tell us much, it is interesting to consider that blacks and Hispanics may develop more quickly than whites, or that teams are more willing to bring whites into the league at a later age, thus allowing them more time to develop in the minor First, the numbers reveal that neither blacks nor Hispanics who were not called up were statistically superior in any category to the white players who were called up; such a difference would have been extremely revealing for the 4 Data obtained from www.mlb.com 34 leagues. However, it is important to note that Hispanic players born outside of the U.S. are eligible to be signed without a high school education, while U.S.-born players must first graduate high school before becoming eligible, thus giving some Hispanic players a greater time to develop in the professional system. Of the 152 rookies in the sample, 100 were white, 19 were black, and 33 were Hispanic. For veterans, of which there were only 27, the majority was white, with 17 in the sample; of the remainder, 4 were black and 6 Hispanic. This equation seeks to discover if there is a link between a player’s race and their propensity to be called up to the major league level. Offensive production, as well as other variables throughout the equation, are used to control for the many factors influencing an organization’s decision to promote a player. Using an OLS regression, the null hypothesis being tested is that β 1 and β 2 = 0. Under normal circumstances, it is assumed that a player’s race should not have an effect on the probability they are promoted from AAA to the major leagues. As this study is testing whether Hispanics and blacks have a decreased probability of getting called up, this will be a one-tailed test, as results causing the null hypothesis to be rejected will be indicated by negative coefficients on β 1 and β 2 . However, the significance of all other variables in this test is measured based on a standard two-tailed test. If the two coefficients from the null hypothesis are significant and less than 0, this would suggest that for black and/or Hispanic players, their race alone inhibits them from having the same probability as an equally talented white player from reaching the majors. All variables from β 7 to β 11 are binary, functioning as either a 0 or 1 depending on if the player fits specific criteria. Age is measured as a whole number, based on the player’s age at the end of the 2009 season. It should also be noted that values for batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage were converted into whole numbers for the analysis. Table 3, as seen in the appendix, reveals the results for the regression using Equation 1. Of the 30 MLB teams, 8 employed non-white managers for the 2009 season, while 5 had non-white general managers. A total of 14 teams qualified for the diverse city measure, with Detroit’s 12.3% non-Hispanic white population making it the least white city in the sample. Empirical Model and Results My empirical model is based on one specific equation, which is run first for all players within the study. As the dependent variable calledup is binary, coefficients on the independent variables will represent each variable’s influence on the probability a player will be called up to the major leagues. My initial regression is based on the following equation: (1) Called Upallplayers = β0 + β 1black + β 2hispanic + β 3battingaverage + β 4obp + β 5slugging + β 6age + β 7rookie + β 8veteran + β 9NWmanager * NWplayer + β10NWgm * NWplayer + β11diversecity * NWplayer + u. Note: ‘NW’ stands for Non-white. 35 The majority of the significance within the results takes place on the control variables. However, before considering each of these, let us first consider the outcome for the variables from the null hypothesis. We fail to reject the null hypothesis that β 1 and β 2 are equal to zero; in fact, both coefficients proved to actually be positive, suggesting that if the results would have been statistically significant, blacks and Hispanics may have an advantage over whites in reaching the major leagues. According to the results, a black AAA player would be about 3% more likely to reach the majors for the 2009 season, while Hispanics would receive a 1% advantage. Of course, due to their insignificance, these coefficients cannot actually be considered to actually reach this conclusion. When comparing white, black, and Hispanic player outcomes, it appears that a marginality bias in favor of whites is not present in the 2009 season. slugging, the results are similar, suggesting a 0.1% increased chance of being called up for each one point increase in slugging percentage. It is extremely interesting to note that the results for batting average were both negative and insignificant. One modern columnist writes that batting average “remains the one consistently understood aspect of the game” (Morrissey, 2007), as even the most lay fan has little trouble interpreting the measure. However, the explosion of the more obscure statistic as made publicly popular in Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, as well as the way in which modern baseball has “create[d] some stunning numbers for at bats [and] home runs” (2007), each suggest that both organizations and fans alike may be less focused on a simple statistic such as batting average, paying more attention to other possible outcomes at the plate. When there exist seven ways to reach first base,5 why would people want to limit their observation to simply hits per at bat? On-base percentage is able to include additional ways in which a player may get on base, and slugging adequately measures a player’s ability to hit for extra bases. A handful of the MLB’s top current players are known for having traditionally low batting averages while maintaining much larger on-base and slugging percentages.6 Of the three offensive measures, it seems appropriate that batting average did not provide Of the offensive productivity control variables, both on-base percentage and slugging percentage proved statistically significant at the 5% and 1% level, respectively. Both coefficients were positive, as would be expected – it seems natural that the greater a player’s production, the more likely they are to be promoted. For every point increase in on-base percentage, a player, regardless of race, should expect a 0.2% increase in the probability of being called up; so, if an average black player is hitting 20 points higher than an otherwise identical white player (for example, .280 compared to .260), there is a predicted 4% greater chance they are promoted to the major league level. For 5 Hit, walk, hit by pitch, fielder’s choice, error, catcher interference, and dropped third strike 6 Adam Dunn and Lance Berkman each finished within the top 15 for OBP and the top 35 in slugging for the 2009 season, while neither batted over .275 36 significant results, as it seems it has been overlooked in recent years, and players may be exuding talent in alternative ways to impress organizations. remember that all players within the study have already established themselves at the AAA level, where they are only one step away from the major leagues. The variable for age showed significance, indicating that for every year older a player becomes, their chances of being called up decrease by about 2%. While this coefficient seems appropriate, as one would assume teams would be less likely to bring up an older player with less potential and fewer successful years ahead of him, it is unlikely that age possesses a completely linear relationship. It is more likely that this variable would be negative for the youngest players and become positive for a brief time when players are at the average period of sufficient development to be ready for the majors. After drafting a player, a team is allowed to keep him within the minor league system for six years before they must either promote him to the major leagues or find an alternative solution, such as releasing or trading the individual. With this in mind, it is likely that players aged 24-27 are being called up the majors more than those falling out of that range. While the results for rookies appear legitimate, more caution should be considered when analyzing the results for veterans. Although the coefficient suggests that having played in at least 500 major league games garners a 25% increase in the likelihood of promotion, of the 27 veterans in the study, only 7 were not promoted to the majors in the 2009 season. It is unlikely that all 27 of these players were in the minors fighting for a chance to move up, as many could have been either recovering from an injury or called up at different intervals throughout the year to act as pinch hitters or fill a spot on the roster. Also noteworthy is that veteran players, as defined by MLB as those with five or more years of service, must approve of being sent down to the minor leagues – if they don’t, the team can either keep them on the major league roster or release the player and continue paying their salary. With this in mind, it is possible some of the veteran players in this study agreed to play in the minor leagues, perhaps acknowledging that their talent level has decreased. The significant coefficient on the variable for rookies illustrates that for players who have not played in at least 50 games at the major league level, their chance at gaining promotion is hindered by almost 15%. It makes sense that a player with past major league experience would be more likely to have the skills to reach a professional team again. Additionally, while one may consider this coefficient to be inflated due to extremely young players without present hopes of promotion, it is important to Unfortunately, none of the interaction variables accounting for diversity within management or the team’s city proved significant. The results indicate that non-whites playing under diverse management actually had a more difficult time reaching the majors. However, it does appear that non-whites in the most diverse cities 37 were more likely to be called up, a statistic that was significant at the 25% level. However, the coefficients for on-base percentage and slugging are only significant at the 10% level, where before they reached significance at the 5 and 1% levels, respectively. The coefficient for on-base percentage has increased from about .002 to .003, indicating that this statistic may be of more importance to management for outfielders than remaining position players. Slugging, however, appears almost unchanged, moving from .0013 down to .0012. Older players may have a more difficult time being called up for outfield positions, with a negative coefficient of -.047 for the age variable, suggesting that an outfielder has about a 5% less chance of being called up for each year older they become. Again, it is important to realize that it is unlikely age represents a linear relationship. Although 51 of the 111 outfielders in the sample qualified as rookies, the -.046 coefficient, over three times as large as that of the first equation, was insignificant. However, it appears veteran outfielders, of which there were 7, found it almost twice as likely as non-veterans to be called up, although it is unwise to over-analyze this, as only one veteran outfielder in the study was not called up. One final area of note for this second equation is the higher R-squared value of .2605 as compared to the initial .1906, suggesting that it may be easier to predict call-ups for outfielders than for all players as a whole. Of course, this makes sense, as by limiting the model to outfielders, we have eliminated the possibility of a player’s position affecting the results. In Phillips’ study, to control for the fact that in 1980 many black baseball players played predominantly outfield positions, he decided to control for this and directly compare statistics for white and black outfielders. In doing so, any variation in offensive productivity based on position is eliminated. Similarly, I decided to run a separate regression which includes only players involved in one of the three outfield positions. Of the 111 outfielders in the study, 70 were white, 27 were black, and 14 were Hispanic. The regression was run based on the same equation as before, only with a different sample of players. The equation is reprinted below. (2) Called Upoutfielders = β0 + β 1black + 2hispanic + β 3battingaverage + β 4obp β 5slugging + β 6age + β 7rookie + 8veteran + β 9NWmanager*NWplayer β10NWgm*NWplayer + β11diversecity NWplayer + u. β + β + * Again, using an OLS regression, the null hypothesis being tested is that both β1 and β 2 = 0. All of the same control variables are used, with the only difference in regressions being that nonoutfielders have been removed from the data. Results are shown in table 4 in the appendix. The results appear extremely consistent with those from the first equation. Each variable significant in the previous results, except for the rookie variable, is again significant here. Conclusion 38 Unlike previous studies, which often evaluated players who were already established in the major leagues, this study examines the path that players of different races must take in order to play on a professional roster. Players who moved from a AAA affiliate to a major league ballclub during the 2009 season were included in the data, as well as randomly selected players who were not promoted within the season. A regression using whether a player was called up as the dependent variable used a variety of variables to find what organizations consider when promoting a player; specifically, the study desired to find if non-white players exhibited a more difficult time being called up from AAA to a major league team. Although many of the control variables proved significant, neither blacks nor Hispanics appeared to face any additional barriers when seeking promotion. performing well are likely to have similar statistics to the blacks and Hispanics being promoted. In this situation, a lower percentage of black and Hispanic players in the minor leagues are performing as poorly as whites, with a greater portion from each race promoted than whites. So, wouldn’t this mean that there are more whites in the minor leagues than the majors? By referring back to the summary statistics for those players who were not called up, it appears the figures for this study support this idea. About 68% of the 150 players not called up were white, while whites represented only 60% of players in the MLB last year. Similarly, Hispanics not called up were only 22.6% of the sample, over 4% lower than their MLB presence. Although blacks not called up were proportionately only 1% lower than the MLB average, those who did make the move to the majors overrepresented the league average by 3%. With such results, one must return to the drastic differences in offensive production between white and non-white players. What is to account for the discrepancies in offensive production between the races? Perhaps one idea to consider is the raw number of individuals of each race within the system. From the table in the appendix of all players in the sample, we see that at least for batting and on-base percentage, white minor leaguers tend to perform inferior to other races. If the number of whites in the minors is significantly greater than other races (which it is, making up about two-thirds of the league), then the distribution of offensive production makes more sense. With a large portion of whites pulling down these average numbers, those who are While the results of this study do not support the idea of a marginality bias currently present in the MLB, a great deal is still captured by these results. It appears that more in-depth offensive statistics, such as on-base percentage and slugging percentage, are being given more weight when deciding a player’s promotion. Additionally, regardless of the manager, general manager, or racial make-up of the city in which a team plays in, it still does not appear that race is a factor in promotion. Although Orlando Hudson correctly points out that both Jermaine Dye and Gary Sheffield remain unsigned, successful white players, including pitcher Jarrod Washburn and power-hitting third 39 baseman Joe Crede, remain on the market as well. It would be interesting to expand this study in a few different ways. Adding variables measuring defense could be worthwhile, as well as a variable specific to language. While this study examines race, it is likely that a large range of fluency in English exists among the players included. The data also does not capture if there was a specific reason a player was called up; situations in which a player is needed to replace an injured starter are not included in this data. Additionally, teams out of playoff contention may bring up minor league players for a period of evaluation, having no real intention of keeping them on the roster for the following season. Of course, with the constantly changing trends in baseball, be it statistically or in the league’s racial make-up, there is no reason a similar study at a later date couldn’t produce revealing results different than those observed here. 40 Appendix: Table A-1: Average Minor League Offensive Production By Race (All Players) Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage White 0.26046 0.33297 0.41064 Black 0.28088 0.35567 0.43383 Hispanic 0.27597 0.33390 0.38945 Table 1: Average Minor League Offensive Production By Race (Call-ups Only) Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage White 0.27172 0.34601 0.44225 Black 0.2913 0.36839 0.44971 Hispanic 0.29505 0.35208 0.43346 Table 2: Average Minor League Offensive Production By Race (Non Call-ups Only) Batting Average On-Base Percentage Slugging Percentage White 0.24975 0.32056 0.38059 Black 0.26014 0.33021 0.40207 Hispanic 0.25409 0.31306 0.33897 41 Table 3: Regression using Equation (1) (1) Dependent Variable: Called Up (All Players) β 1 Black .0307(.0950) β 2 Hispanic .0113 (.0831) β 3 BattingAverage -.0007 (.0012) β 4 OBP .0021** (.0010) β 5 Slugging .0013*** (.0005) β 6 Age -.0237** (.0103 ) β 7 Rookie -.1381** (.0605 ) β 8 Veteran .2529** (.1062) β9 NWmanager*NWplayer -.0164 (.1041) β 10 NWgm*NWplayer -.0412 (.1291) β11Diversecity*NWplayer .1082 (.0918) β 0Constant .1182 (.3579) Number of Observations 314 R-Squared .1906 Adjusted R-Squared .1611 ***Significant at the 1 percent level. **Significant at the 5 percent level. *Significant at the 1 percent level. 42 Table 4: Regression Using Equation (2) (2) Dependent Variable: Called Up (Outfielders) β 1 Black .0293 (.1352) β 2 Hispanic .1804 (.1742) β 3 BattingAverage -.0016 (.0020) β 5 Slugging .0012*(.0007) β 6 Age -.0469**(.0193) β 7 Rookie -.0459(.1052) β 8 Veteran .4482**(.2007) β 9 NWmanager*NWplayer .0421(.1712) β 10 NWgm*NWplayer -.1323(.2300) β 11Diversecity*NWplayer .0576(.1628) β 0Constant .6261(.6482) Number of Observations 111 R-Squared .2605 Adjusted R-Squared .1783 ***Significant at the 1 percent level. **Significant at the 5 percent level. *Significant at the 1 percent level. Glossary On-Base Percentage (OBP): Number of Hits, Walks, or Hit-By-Pitch / Number of At Bats + Number of Walks + Number of Hit-By-Pitch Batting Average: Number of Hits / Number of At Bats Slugging Percentage: Number of Bases / Number of At Bats (for example, a double would count as two hits, a triple three, and a home run four) Designated Hitter: In the American League, a player who is part of the nine person lineup but does not play a 43 position in the field (the pitcher does not bat) Multivariate Analysis." Sociology of Sport Journal 16 (1999): 16-34. Print. Works Cited Mills, P. "Negro League History 101." Negro League Baseball. P. Mills, 2003. Web. 8 Apr. 2010. <http://www.negroleaguebaseball.com/h istory101.html>. Gonzalez, G. Leticia. "The Stacking of Latinos in Major League Baseball: A Forgotten Minority?" Journal of Hispanic Higher Education 1.4 (1996): 320-28. Print. Morrissey, Mo. "MLB's Top 50 Batting Averages: The Lost Importance of the Batting Average." Associated Content, 30 Nov. 2007. Web. 29 Apr. 2010. <http://www.associatedcontent.com/arti cle/465048/mlbs_top_50_batting_averag es_the_lost.html>. Lacques, Dave. "Torii Hunter Upset His Comments Caused a Stir as Ozzie Guillen, Others Weigh in." Daily Pitch. USA Today, 10 Mar. 2010. Web. 29 Apr. 2010. http://content.usatoday.com/communiti es/dailypitch/post/2010/03/torii-hunterscomments-cause-stir-as-ozzie-guillenresponds/1>. Passan, Jeff. "Hudson Hints at Racism for Blacks in Free Agency." Yahoo! Sports MLB. 13 Apr. 2010. Web. 29 Apr. 2010. <http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu g=jp- dyehudson041210>. Lapchick, Richard, Alejandra Diaz-Calderon and Derek McMechan. The 2009 Racial and Gender Report Card: Major League Baseball. UCF Catalog. University of Central Florida. College of Business Administration, 15 Apr. 2008. Web.<http://web.bus.ucf.edu/sportbusin ess/> Phillips, John C. "Race and Career Opportunities in Major League Baseball: 1960-1980." Journal of Sport and Social Issues 7.2 (1983): 1-17. Print. Zoss, Joel, and John Bowman. Diamonds in the Rough: The Untold History of Baseball. Chicago, Ill: Contemporary, 1996. Print. Lavoie, Marc, and Wilbert M. Leonard II. "In Search of an Alternative Explanation of Stacking in Baseball: The Uncertainty Hypothesis." Sociology of Sport Journal 11 (1994): 140-54. Print. Lavoie, Marc. "The "Economic" Hypothesis of Positional Segregation: Some Further Comments." Sociology of Sport Journal 6 (1989): 163-66. Print. Margolis, Benjamin, and Jane A. Piliavin. ""Stacking" in Major League Baseball: A 44 Narrative Processing Predicts Well-Being and Communion in Victims of Intimate Partner Violence Courtney Walsh, Class of 2010 Narratives may play an important role in understanding and healing from traumas among victims of intimate partner violence. This study investigated whether narrative processes of overcoming and integrating traumas into overall life stories (i.e., narrative resolution, complexity, and growth) relate to female victims’ overall psychological well-being and capacities for close, meaningful relationships following intimate partner violence (N=32). To assess predictor and outcome variables, a narrative protocol and questionnaires examining participants’ well-being, relationship attitudes, and relationship engagement were used. Results showed that victims’ levels of narrative processing were generally predictive of their intimate relationship attitudes, positive relations with others, and overall well-being. Decreased rumination partially mediated the relationship between narrative resolution and well being. Overall, findings indicate the importance of narratives in trauma recovery in the case of intimate partner violence. Storytelling is pertinent to an individual’s self-insight and development both in the therapy setting and in life overall. Storytelling, or narrative processing, is the narration, interpretation, and incorporation of past experiences into individuals’ life stories (Pals, 2006). Consequently, narrative processing is important in making meaning of past events, particularly traumatic experiences, within the context of the life story as a whole. People’s stories vary in their inclusion of narrative components, such as complexity, resolution, and growth. Overall, the sharing of one’s experiences is linked to identity development, wellbeing, positive relationship development, and meaning in one’s life (e.g., King, 2001; Linley & Joseph, 2003). Past research has shaped the current study’s focus on a particular trauma in women, Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), and its relationship to narrative processing, which has the potential to be a powerful coping mechanism in trauma victims. Understanding coping in IPV victims is essential, as being able to identify successful coping mechanisms has positive implications for recovery and therapy for victims. The present study centers on one main question: What narrative processes (i.e., complexity, resolution, and growth) predict IPV victims’ well-being and capacities for close relationships? The Role of Life Stories and Narratives in Personal Development Life stories are complex, evolving, psychosocial constructions (i.e., both individuals and their cultures author and shape these stories) associated with identity development (McAdams & Bowman, 2001). Individuals constantly revise their unique life stories to comply with cultural expectations and to incorporate past, present, and future events into these stories (McAdams, 1998, in McLean, 2008). Furthermore, meaningful storytelling, reflection on 45 experiences, and differences in life experiences are pertinent to identity development within a culture (McLean, 2008). Essentially, identity is an internalized, evolving life story (McAdams, 2001). process difficult life experiences. For example, a study by Pennebaker and Seagal (1999) found that narrative writing helps organize, understand, and create a coherent, integrative account of complex experiences over time. In other words, speaking about an emotionally stigmatizing experience (e.g., IPV) can turn a complex event into a simpler, more efficient story. On the other hand, failure to address difficult experiences and traumas has negative effects on the individual. Specifically, the silencing of abuse, both individually and culturally, leads abusive experiences and accompanying stories to be perceived as uninteresting, irrelevant, or unacceptable, which further leads to reluctance in individuals to speak about their experiences. It is vital, however, for individuals to talk about the difficult events in their lives, as it gives those events meaning and enhances selfconcept and self-understanding (Fivush, 2004). Overall, narrative processing is significant in personal identity development and also increases one’s ability to understand, resolve, and incorporate trauma into an overall life story. Past research has shown the importance of how individuals convey and conceptualize narratives within the context of their overall lives. In a study by Sanderson and McKeough (2005), the experimenters found that narrative thought is useful in understanding life events, human intentions/actions, and different event outcomes. Specifically, the results revealed that, relative to a therapy setting, narrative language helps clients work through how events are causally related and how one’s internal ‘intention state’ (i.e., emotion, motivation) shapes one’s external actions (Sanderson & McKeough, 2005). These findings are related to this study’s examination of how narrative processes of growth, complexity, and resolution relate to a person’s relationship goals, needs, and overall feelings of well-being (i.e., life satisfaction, daily functioning, and positive emotion) (King, 2001). In addition to the importance of the content of a narrative, Sanderson & McKeough also emphasize the importance of individuals’ manner of conveying their narratives; this is important because the narrative can highlight participants’ unresolved issues, meaning making abilities, and manner of incorporating stories and negative events into their overall lives. Individual Differences in Narrative Processing: Implications for WellBeing Narrative Processing: Importance to the Life Story Model of Identity Although life narratives have the potential to promote positive development in individuals, narratives vary substantially in their ability to do so. Various processes are integral to one’s narrative and illustrate individual Narrative processing is also beneficial for one’s ability to better understand, positively transform, and 46 differences in thought processes and emotional maturity. The current study mainly addresses three of these components: narrative complexity, narrative growth, and narrative resolution. First, narrative growth is a positive change in thinking that occurs when reflecting on a difficult event, leading to maturity, strength, and positive functioning (Mansfield, 2009). Second, narrative resolution occurs when an individual makes peace with difficult life experiences within the context of his or her life story (Mansfield, 2009). Third, narrative complexity refers to individuals’ depth of thought in narratives and their abilities to see different perspectives and outcomes (Mansfield, 2009); this narrative process is reflected in plots, themes, characters, and settings that are intertwined into a person’s overall life story (Singer, 2005). In the current study, IPV experiences can be classified as self defining memories. Such memories are significant scenes in the life story, as the construction and interpretation of these memories in the midst of personal, longterm goals gives life unity and purpose (Singer & Salovey, 2003; Singer, 2004; Tomkins, 1987, in McAdams et al., 2006). Narrative resolution may be especially important for handling traumatic self defining memories such as IPV. Each of these three aspects of narrative processing—narrative complexity, narrative growth, and narrative resolution—may play a critical role in the development of well-being, particularly following trauma, as reviewed next. goals, and find redemption in their traumas is related to an individual’s overall well-being. While a few studies have shown growth to be marginally predictive of well-being (see Mansfield, 2009), other studies have found growth to be significantly linked to well-being (see Bauer, McAdams, & Sakaeda, 2005a; Bauer, McAdams, & Pals, 2006; Bauer & McAdams, 2004). Bauer, McAdams, and Pals (2006) discuss how high levels of eudaimonic well-being (i.e., an individual’s overall ego development, psychosocial integration of difficult experiences, and psychological wellbeing) are linked to an accentuation of personal growth, development, and viewing of traumatic experiences as transformative and insightful in life stories. As such, a narrative focus on growth is related to an overall sense of well-being in an individual. The presence of redemption sequences in individuals’ life stories is also indicative of growth from the trauma. Redemption sequences occur when a negative life experience is followed by or transformed into a positive life experience scene (McAdams, Reynolds, Lewis, Patten, & Bowman, 2001). Conversely, contamination sequences occur when a positive life experience is followed by or transformed into a negative life experience scene. For example, a redemption sequence occurs if a person who descends into heavy drinking then decides to make the positive life change of becoming sober; contrarily, a sober individual deciding to heavily drink would be an example of a contamination sequence. In samples of both midlife adults and undergraduate students, McAdams, Reynolds, Lewis, Narrative Growth The ability of individuals to positively change their thinking, set 47 Patten, and Bowman (2001) found that, in contrast to contamination sequences, redemption sequences in narratives were correlated with high levels of well-being, life satisfaction, self-disclosure, and self esteem. Recovery from traumas such as IPV may similarly be linked to an enhanced self-view and overall changed life philosophy. Ultimately, the presence of redemption sequences in narratives is related to higher levels of well-being, enabling healing and resolution to occur. of narrative resolution, including narratives’ presence of crystallization of desire vs. discontent and coherent positive resolution. Individuals’ perception about important events in their lives, particularly traumatic ones, is important to their well-being levels. In looking at adults’ narratives of life changing decisions, Bauer, McAdams, and Sakaeda (2005b) found that crystallization of desire (focusing on “approaching a desired future”) leads to a greater level of well-being/life satisfaction, more positive self-view, and less trauma avoidance than does crystallization of discontent (focusing on “escaping an undesired past”). For example, following negative experiences, crystallization of desire leads individuals to seek happiness, pleasure, and success whereas crystallization of discontent leads individuals to escape failures and negativity. Thus, a dichotomy exists between a positive approach orientation (i.e., crystallization of desire) and negative avoidance orientation (i.e., crystallization of discontent). Growth also results from life goals, which are linked to narrative wellbeing and identity development. When setting life goals, an individual seeks to become the best version of him or herself, which is referred to as one’s ‘best possible self’ (King & Hicks, 2006). In narratives, the ease, vividness, and emotional depth with which individuals think about their best possible selves is pertinent to growth. Several studies have found that investing in attainable goals and letting go of unattainable goals is strongly associated with well-being and ego development (King & Hicks, 2006). Overall, positive change after difficult experiences (i.e., growth) and establishment of achievable goals are linked to individuals’ well-being levels. Within this context, confronting trauma in a positive manner is also linked to increased trauma resolution and well being. Pals (2006) describes a two step process in narrative reasoning and post-trauma growth: exploring the impact of a meaningful, negative experience in depth and constructing a resolved, positive ending of selftransformation. In a longitudinal study of adults who have had difficult life experiences, Pals found that positive self transformation is likely to lead to wellbeing. She looked at “coherent positive Narrative Resolution Like growth narratives, narrative resolution is also linked to positive wellbeing. In this sense, resolution indicates individuals’ ability to make peace with their traumas, create a positive solution for their traumatic experiences, and disallow such traumas from continually negatively affecting their daily lives. There are variations in individuals’ levels 48 resolution”, which occurs when a well integrated life story of a difficult experience ends positively and leads to adult identity development. It follows that “coherent positive resolution” leads to higher levels of overall well-being (e.g., resiliency, life satisfaction), which is an important outcome measure in the present study. eudaimonic well-being, they view traumatic experiences as transformative and capable of offering insight; furthermore, in addition to having positive feelings, individuals with high levels of well-being are able to perceive and integrate difficult events into their overall self-view. Overall, the integration and incorporation of thoughts, feelings, and experiences into one’s life story is the hallmark of narrative complexity. Furthermore, in studies assessing post-trauma recovery and counteraction of past traumas, present control (i.e., control over recovery) and positive life changes were found to be associated with less distress, fewer depressive symptoms (e.g., social withdrawal), greater cognitive restructuring, and higher effectiveness in recovery than past (i.e., self-blame) or even future control (Frazier, Mortensen, & Steward, 2005; Frazier, 2003; Frazier, Tashiro, Berman, Steger, & Long, 2004). Overall, victims’ levels of peace with their trauma, control over their recovery from trauma, and focus on positive solutions to their trauma are related to their psychological well-being. In victims, approaching a desired future and creating a coherent and resolved narrative are linked to increased positive identity development, life satisfaction, and resiliency. Happiness and maturity are also linked to narrative complexity and wellbeing. King (2001) discusses how happiness and maturity are two aspects of the good life. The good life results from the incorporation of difficult life experiences into one’s narrative (e.g., including change, suffering, regret, and a positive ending). Individuals with complex narratives are able to see and experience differing outcomes, including, regret, agony, and positive change. Contrary to having an outcome of regret, the ability to find redemption after considering different perspectives in a difficult life event is linked positive psychological well-being (Ryff, 1989, in King, 2001). Particularly in adult women who have lived in an unequal, limiting environment, difficult life experiences have the opportunity to enhance complexity of life perspectives, which is, in turn, related to the ‘good life’ (see Helson, 1992, in King, 2001). Narrative Complexity In the midst of processing and understanding difficult life events, narrative complexity can occur, which is linked to well-being. Following from the previous discussion, narrative complexity is an important predictor of well-being, even in the presence of narrative resolution (Mansfield et al., 2009). If individuals have high levels of In individuals facing difficult experiences, specific words in narratives denote depth of processing and predict overall well-being. Using a meta-data analysis from previous studies, Pennebaker, Mayne, and Francis (1997) found that positive-emotion words in 49 narratives are predictive of increased psychological health and individuals with a mixture of many positive-emotion words and some negative-emotion words have the highest amount of well-being. These narratives are considered to have high levels of narrative complexity, as the inclusion of both positive and negative emotion words illustrates individuals’ abilities to see differing perspectives/outcomes and to intertwine differing emotions in their narratives. Overall, the integration of fragmented negative and positive emotions is indicative of narrative complexity and consequent overall psychological wellbeing. 2004; Pennebaker & Seagal, 1999). Overall, individuals’ integration of multiple emotions and perspectives into their trauma narratives is predictive of increased well-being, life satisfaction, and positive identity development. The Relationship between Narrative Processes and Communion Communion can be defined as individuals’ experiences with love and intimacy as well as their connections to others shown through helping, nurturing, and affection (Bakan, 1966, in McAdams, Hoffman, Mansfield, & Day, 1996; Singer, 2005). In my study, communion is examined as an individual’s intimate relationship attitudes and positive relations with others. Although communion is mainly an outcome measure in this study, McAdams, Hoffman, Mansfield, and Day (1996) found that communion themes in narratives (i.e., love/friendship, care/help) are positively associated with intimacy motivation/attainment and personal needs for close, warm affiliation and nurturance. In essence, communion themes encompass individuals’ sentiments towards their interpersonal relationships; these themes are then associated with the externalized outcome of communion, which is the playing out of individuals’ relationship attitudes and behaviors in their daily lives. Therefore, an individual’s relationship attitudes are both contained in and highly correlated with narratives. Failure to acknowledge difficult life events leads to a lack of narrative complexity, well-being, and identity development. Because negative events are emotionally difficult for individuals to explain within the context of the life story, the most common response is to deny or discount such events; this repression can cause individuals to have positive illusions about difficult experiences, leading to a focus more on potential positive meanings of events rather than acknowledging their negative aspects (McAdams, 2008). Failing to process and understand the negative aspects hinders individuals from confronting the reality of these situations. Furthermore, these illusions will not last indefinitely, resulting ultimately in lowered levels of wellbeing. An individual who pushes traumatic experiences out of consciousness is more likely to have a long-lasting obsession with trauma (i.e., rumination) and lack an integrated self, identity, and coherent life story (Fivush, Several studies have demonstrated that positive relationship development is linked to growth and well-being. Individuals who experience positive 50 change after trauma alter their life philosophy and enhance their relationships (Linley & Joseph, 2003). Bauer, McAdams, and Sakaeda (2005a) found that happy people (i.e., people with connections to other people/things beyond self) interpret and understand their lives according to meaningful relationships; the study also found that having meaningful relationships is correlated strongly with psychological well-being. Bauer, McAdams, and Pals (2006) discuss how high levels of eudaimonic well-being are linked to, among other things, a richer, more mature understanding of one’s relationship to self and others. Therefore, growth and happiness are linked to positive relationship development and, in turn, these relationships are linked to overall positive well-being. beliefs/values). In this study, IPV was operationally defined to include physical, emotional, verbal, sexual, and financial abuse. Although extensive past research on narrative processing has helped structure the current study’s focus (see studies in King & Hicks, 2006), the rationale for this study stems from past research gaps on IPV’s relationship to narrative processing. IPV victims are a particularly important population to study because they have experienced challenges such as emotional and interpersonal trauma that they attempt to fit into their life stories. These stories provide insight into how individuals positively recover from difficult experiences and how these traumas affect individuals’ outlooks on life. The dependent measures in the present study—psychological well-being and communion—reflect individuals’ overall functioning levels both internally and externally. These measures provide information about an individual’s overall well-being (e.g., independence, life purpose, self-acceptance, general affect) and interpersonal relationship functioning and attitudes (e.g., relationship fear, motivation, and stability). Overall, I hypothesized that higher levels of complexity, resolution, and growth in IPV women’s narratives would be related to enhanced well-being, intimate relationship attitudes, and positive relations with others. The Present Study The present study seeks to contribute to narrative processing research on Intimate Partner Violence by empirically investigating the relationship between processes in individuals’ narratives (i.e., growth, complexity, and resolution) and their sense of well-being, relationships with others, and attitudes about intimate relationships. To accomplish this, the participants completed questionnaires about their social relational engagement, relationship attitudes, and overall psychological well-being. The experimenter also conducted an interview with the participant, which focused on participants’ experience of intimate partner violence within the context of their overall life stories (e.g., treatment decisions, future goals, This study also has several subsidiary predictions about intimate relationship motivation and perpetrator punishment satisfaction. In the context of narratives, I examined how participants’ incorporation of post-abuse intimate relationship willingness and 51 contentment with their abusers’ punishments were related to the outcome measures of well-being, intimate relationship attitudes, and positive relations with others. Based on past research (e.g., see McAdams, Hoffman, Mansfield, & Day, 1996; Bauer, McAdams, & Sakaeda, 2005a), I predicted that increased willingness to enter into new intimate relationships would be related to increased well being, positive intimate relationship attitudes, and positive relations with others. Secondly, I also predicted that increased satisfaction with perpetrator punishment would be positively correlated with these outcome measures. This prediction is based on past research that has found that, within a certain time frame of their perpetrator’s punishment, victims’ revenge feelings were significantly decreased if punishment severity were higher (Orth, 2004). (e.g., in this case, IPV) (Berry, Worthington, O’Connor, Parrott, & Wade, 2005). Therefore, I predicted that rumination would be a mediator between narrative processes and outcome measures of well-being and relationship; specifically, I predicted rumination would mediate narrative resolution’s effect on both well-being and intimate relationship attitudes. Past research particularly points to rumination’s role in the context of narrative resolution (e.g., forgivingness), well-being (e.g., mood state), and intimate relationship attitudes (e.g., vengeful/negative feelings post-abuse). Method Participants The participants (N=32) for this study were recruited from non-profit agencies in upstate New York (N=16) and Texas (N=16) that provide services for victims of domestic violence. In keeping with confidentiality concerns, therapists and advocates at both non-profit agencies gave their clients information about this study and the clients then volunteered to take part in this study. The experimenter contacted the potential participants by telephone and set up a time to meet in-person to run the study session. The participants were compensated for taking part in this study with a $15 gift card. I also posed the question of whether participants’ level of rumination about their abusive trauma is a mediator between the effects of the narrative processes and participants’ outcomes. Past research has shown rumination’s significant relationship to negative mood (e.g., depression and anxiety) and negative correlation with individuals’ forgiveness of themselves, others, and situations; specifically, goal interruption and lack of processing emotions in individuals potentially causes rumination, which, in turn, leads to negative mood states (Segerstrom, Tsao, Alden, & Craske, 2000; Thompson, et al., 2005). Further research has also shown that rumination is a mediator between a person’s forgivingness level and revenge motivations following transgressions The participants in this study ranged in age from 22 to 57 years (M=39.2, SD=10.7). In terms of education, 15.6% had less than high school level, 18.8% had a high school/GED degree, 37.5% had completed some college, 12.5% had an Associates degree, 12.5% had a 452 year college degree, and 3.1% had a Master’s degree. Most of participants in the study were either white or black/African American (56.3% and 31.3%, respectively), and a smaller percentage were Hispanic (9.4%) and of mixed race (3.1%). In terms of marital status, 6.3% of the participants were legally married, 25.0% divorced, 31.3% separated, 6.3% widowed, and 31.3% single. Occupationally, 34.4% were workers for pay, 18.8% maintained households, 3.1% were students, 3.1% were retired, 28.1% were unemployed, 3.1% were both students and maintained households, and 9.4% were both students and workers for pay. In terms of income, 71.9% of the participants had income less than $15,000, 22% had income between $15,001-$55,000, and 6.2% had income over $55,000. were casual partners, 50.0% were spouses, and 9.4% were other types of perpetrators. Therapy-wise, 18.8% of the women were part of a support group, 65.6% were attending individual therapy, 15.6% had never attended therapy, and 15.6% were past recipients of therapy. Procedures Data were gathered over a period of 4 months via an individual, one-time meeting session at either an upstate New York or Texas non-profit agency. The hour-long study session occurred in an enclosed room at the agency to ensure confidentiality. After finishing a consent form and a demographics questionnaire, participants completed various scales/questionnaires that addressed well-being, control over healing from trauma, relationship engagement and attitudes, and overall functioning levels. Participants filled out the scales and questionnaires by hand unless they preferred an alternative means or had a reading impairment, in which case, the experimenter and participant verbally filled out the questionnaires and scales together. Then, participants verbally participated in an interview, which examined their overall life reflections and IPV experiences. The experimenter recorded all interviews via an audiotaping device, so that trained research assistants could later code the interviews. Specific scales/questionnaires and the narrative protocol are discussed in detail below (see Table 1 in the appendix for descriptive information). In terms of intimate relationships, 21.9% of the participants were currently in relationships (12.5% still with perpetrators and 9.4% with new partners). The mean amount of time the abuse had been occurring, if occurring currently, was 135.8 months (Range=3.0192.0 months, SD=89.0). If the abuse was not current, the mean length of the abuse was 108.1 months (Range=.75-360.0 months, SD=108.7) and the mean amount of time that it had been since the abuse stopped was 11.8 months (Range=.50-54.0 months, SD=16.0). Many of the participants had experienced multiple types of abuse, including physical (84.4%), verbal (96.9%), emotional (90.6%), sexual (50.0%), and financial (65.6%). In terms of types of perpetrators (sometimes spanning numerous abusive relationships of differing types), 50.0% of the perpetrators were boyfriends, 3.1% Measures of Narrative Processing The interview protocol used was an adapted version of McAdams’ “Life 53 Story Interview” (McAdams, 1995; Helson, 1992). McAdams’ original interview is a longer protocol that is divided into life chapters, key scenes, future scripts, life challenges, personal ideologies, life themes, and an overall life reflection. This study’s adaptation was more specific to the IPV experiences of participants. Specific questions addressed participants’ role models, IPV experiences, treatment/therapy decisions, perpetrator punishment, life beliefs, future chapters, and overall life reflection (see Table 2 for more detail). narrative growth (r=.80), perpetrator punishment satisfaction (r=.95), intimate relationship willingness (r=.93)). Questionnaire Measures Coding Procedure IPV experience. Targeted questions were used to obtain specific data about participants’ IPV experiences. Participants were asked to complete questions about the kind of IPV experienced, whether the violence was currently on-going, type of perpetrator involved, and the extent of therapy that had been sought. Upon conclusion of data collection, the narratives were coded by four research assistants who were all undergraduate students. A coding manual was prepared to score participants on their depth of thought and perspective taking (narrative complexity), ability to make peace with their abuse (narrative resolution), and redemption from their traumatic experience (narrative growth) (see Appendix A). The narratives were also scored on participants’ satisfaction with punishment of their abusers and also motivation to engage in new intimate relationships. The coders listened to the interviews and scored each interview according to the manual’s parameters. The two coders assigned to each interview rated interviews independently first and then verbally agreed upon an overall score for each narrative measure, ranging from a score of 1-5 for each item. There was a high level of inter-rater reliability between scorers for all narrative measures (narrative complexity (r=.76), narrative resolution (r=.77), Well-being. To obtain an overall outcome measure of well-being, Ryff et al.’s (1994) Scales of Psychological Well-Being and the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-10 (Syed, et al., 2008) were combined. Ryff’s original 84-item scale (14-items per subscale) was shortened to serve as this study’s 9-item scale (α=.85). Three subscales with 3 items each were used from the PWB scale: Autonomy, which measures independence (e.g., “Being happy with myself is more important to me than having others approve of me”); Purpose in Life, which measures life direction and belief system (e.g., “I have a sense of direction and purpose in my life”); and Self-Acceptance, which measures overall self-attitude (e.g., “When I look at the story of my life, I am pleased with how things have turned out”). Participants answered each item on a scale from 1 (strongly disagree) to 6 (strongly agree). Secondly, the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-10 contains 10 items that pertain to feelings of fear, weakness, tension, fatigue, worthlessness, and hopelessness that have occurred in the 54 previous week (α=.92). Participants filled out each item on a scale from 1 (not at all) to 4 (extremely). The symptoms checklist was scored in the opposite direction to reflect an absence of symptoms. In order to combine the two scales, standardized values (z-scores) were obtained for each score, and the participants’ scores on the two scales were averaged (α=.81 for these two scales). Positive relations with others. The Positive Relations with Others subscale from Ryff et al.’s (1994) Scales of Psychological Well-Being (α=.73) was used to ascertain participants’ experiences of engagement, empathy, and intimacy in current relationships. This subscale consisted of 8 items on a scale from 1 (strongly disagree) to 6 (strongly agree), including “Maintaining close relationships has been difficult and frustrating for me” (reversed) and “Most people see me as loving and affectionate”. Intimate relationship attitudes. The outcome measure of relationship attitudes was assessed via an adapted version of the Multidimensional Relationship Questionnaire (Snell, Schicke, & Arbeiter, 2002). The original scale had 61 items with 12 subscales. However, the 20-item questionnaire used in this study had 3 subscales: Relationship Esteem, which measures one’s confidence in intimate relationships (e.g., “I am confident about myself as an intimate partner”); Relationship Motivation, which measures one’s desire to be in an intimate relationship (e.g., “I strive to keep myself involved in an intimate relationship” (reversed)); and Relationship Fear, which measures one’s aversion to becoming involved in intimate relationships (e.g., “I sometimes have a fear of intimate relationships”). Participants responded to each item on a scale from 1 (not at all characteristic of me) to 5 (very characteristic of me). The Relationship Fear scale was reversed so that high scores indicated a relative absence of fear in relationships. To compute an overall score for intimate relationship attitudes, the scores on the 3 subscales were averaged (α=.81). Rumination. To assess levels of rumination about IPV experiences, the rumination subscale from the Event Management Questionnaire (Mansfield, 2009) was used (α=.90). The scale had 4 items, including statements such as “I often find myself thinking of this event” and “When I think about this event I feel sad”. Participants responded to items on a 1 (completely disagree) to 5 (completely agree) scale. Results The present study assessed whether the narrative processes of resolution, complexity, and growth (additionally, relationship willingness and punishment satisfaction) were predictive of key outcomes: psychological well-being, intimate relationship attitudes, and positive relations with others. To assess these relationships, a rumination measure was also used to determine its mediating effect on outcomes. Descriptive statistics for all measures are included in Table 1. 55 Relationships between Processes and Outcome Narratives and Well-being predicts participants’ relationship attitudes and relations, I obtained correlations between narrative processes and participants’ intimate relationship attitudes and positive relations with others (see Table 3). I found that narrative resolution moderately correlated with participants’ intimate relationship attitudes; interestingly, however, none of the other narrative processes (including the questions on satisfaction with perpetrator punishment and motivation to engage in intimate/romantic relationships) had a significant relationship with this outcome measure. Yet, narrative complexity, resolution (moderately strong), and growth were strongly correlated with the positive relations with others outcome measure. Victims’ level of satisfaction with their perpetrator’s punishments and enthusiasm to engage in intimate relationships were also strongly correlated with participants’ report of their level of positive relations with others. These results suggest that the ability of victims to rise above and understand their abuse is linked to their overall sentiments towards intimate relationships (e.g., fear of relationships, motivation to engage in relationships). Furthermore, victims’ ability to make peace with their abuse, grow from their trauma, and understand multiple perspectives about their experiences predicts their general experiences with relationships. Participants’ contentment with their perpetrators’ punishments and engagement in intimate relationships also relates to the overall positivity of their relationships with others. Narrative Measures In seeking to answer the central question of whether narrative processing predicts participants’ self-reported wellbeing, I obtained the correlations between these two sets of measures (see Table 3). I found strong correlations between narrative complexity, resolution, and growth and participants’ well-being. Additionally, there was a moderate correlation between well-being and participants’ overall willingness and enthusiasm to engage in romantic relationships post-IPV. However, surprisingly the narrative measure of punishment satisfaction did not significantly correlate with well-being. These findings suggest that participants’ depth of reflection, multiple perspective taking, optimism, and ability to make peace with their intimate partner violence experiences is related to higher levels of overall emotional and psychological well-being. Furthermore, these results suggest a victim’s motivation to engage in an intimate relationship is positively linked to wellbeing and is an indicator of a person’s overall functioning level. Unexpectedly, these results also suggest that a victim’s level of satisfaction with the punishment of her perpetrator does not significantly relate to her overall psychological wellbeing and livelihood. Narratives and Relationships: Intimate Relationship Attitudes and Positive Relations with Others In seeking to answer the central question of whether narrative processing 56 growth and resolution. Thus, participants’ depth of thought about their abusive experiences and ability to take multiple perspectives when contemplating such experiences are very important in predicting their quality of interpersonal relationships. Regression Analyses Examining Multiple Aspects of Narrative Processing on Participants’ Outcomes To probe the relationship between narratives and well-being, I conducted a linear regression analysis to look at narrative processing variables simultaneously as predictors of wellbeing. Taking all the three variables of narrative complexity, resolution, and growth together, narrative resolution most strongly predicted well-being (see Table 4). This finding suggests that the ability of intimate partner violence victims to make peace with their situations is a more important predictor of their overall emotional and psychological functioning than narrative growth and complexity. Regression Analyses Examining Rumination’s Role as a Mediator between Narrative Resolution and Outcome Measures I examined whether rumination accounts for the relationships that might emerge between narrative resolution and well-being and between narrative resolution and intimate relationship attitudes. I conducted two separate regression analyses predicting intimate relationship attitudes and well-being. In both cases, narrative resolution was entered as a predictor in Step 1 and narrative resolution and rumination were entered simultaneously as predictors in Step 2. This protocol tested whether narrative resolution still had a significant effect on well-being or intimate relationship attitudes when also considering the relationship between rumination and those variables. Additionally, I conducted a linear regression analysis to ascertain the relationship between narrative processes (i.e., narrative complexity, resolution, and growth) as simultaneously predictors of intimate relationship attitudes (see Table 5). I found that narrative resolution was the most important predictor of these attitudes, suggesting victims’ abilities to rise above their traumatic abuse experiences is more predictive of their outlooks on romantic relationships than narrative complexity and growth. Following standard procedures for examining possible mediators, I first established narrative resolution’s strong correlation with rumination (r=-.50, p<.01), and, in turn, rumination’s strong correlation with well-being (r=-.69, p<.01). I then conducted a mediator analysis in which narrative resolution significantly predicted well-being scores (=.59, p=.00); however, when I entered rumination in the second step, I found both resolution (=.33, p=.03) and Lastly, I conducted a linear regression analysis to determine the relationship between all three narrative processes and participants’ positive relations with others (see Table 6). Surprisingly, narrative complexity was the most predictive factor of this outcome measure compared to narrative 57 rumination (=-.52, p=.001) to be significant predictors of well-being, with resolution’s significance now being less robust. Therefore, I found rumination to be a partial mediator of the link between narrative resolution and well-being. This finding suggests that resolution has an impact on well-being partly because of its effect on rumination (e.g., as narrative resolution increases, participant’s rumination about IPV decreases, and well-being increases). hypothesized that higher levels of narrative complexity, resolution, and growth in the women’s narratives would predict higher levels of well-being and communion (i.e., more positive intimate relationship attitudes and relations with others). I also hypothesized that perpetrator punishment satisfaction and romantic/intimate relationship willingness (both included in the narratives) would also be predictive of more positive outcomes. Lastly, I hypothesized that rumination would mediate the effects of narrative processes on outcome measures; particularly, I predicted that rumination would be a mediator between the effect of narrative resolution on both well-being and intimate relationship attitudes. My results generally supported my hypotheses as most narrative processes were related to my outcome measures and, furthermore, rumination was a partial mediator between narrative resolution and well-being. Additionally, I established that rumination was moderately correlated with participants’ intimate relationship attitudes (r=-.44, p<.05). I then conducted a mediator analysis in which narrative resolution significantly predicted intimate relationship attitude scores (=.42, p=.02). However, when I entered rumination into the model as a predictor at Step 2, I found that rumination was not a significant predictor of intimate relationship attitudes (=-.30, p=.12). Therefore, this second mediator analysis showed rumination to not be a mediator when looking at the relationship between narrative resolution and intimate relationship attitudes. This finding suggests that narrative resolution’s relationship with intimate relationship attitudes is not dependent on its effect on rumination. Well-being Generally, as predicted, most of the narrative measures were moderately to strongly predictive of participants’ well-being. Specifically, I found that narrative complexity, resolution, and growth were all strongly related to victims’ well-being levels. Participants’ willingness to engage in romantic, intimate relationships after their abusive experiences (as denoted in their narratives) was moderately correlated with their levels of well-being. However, the narrative measure of satisfaction with the perpetrators’ punishment did not significantly correlate with participants’ well-being levels. Discussion The present study sought to examine whether different aspects of narratives were predictive of intimate partner violence victims’ well-being, positive relationships with others, and intimate relationship attitudes. Overall, I 58 Narrative complexity’s strong relationship with well-being suggests that a victim’s ability to reflect deeply on her abuse, integrate the abuse and selfview into an overall life story, and to see other individuals’ perspectives (e.g., children’s, perpetrator’s, family’s) is linked to higher levels of overall psychological well-being. This finding is supported by past research that has found that individuals who push traumatic experiences out of consciousness are more likely to have a long-lasting obsession with trauma and lack an integrated self, resulting in lowered levels of well-being; however, the integration of negative and positive emotions in narratives is indicative of narrative complexity and consequent overall well-being (Pennebaker, Mayne, & Francis, 1997; Fivush, 2004; Pennebaker & Seagal, 1999). adversity (versus regret and rumination on the negative) is related to heightened self understanding and positive life philosophy, which allow for healing to occur (see also McAdams, Reynolds, Lewis, Patten, & Bowman, 2001). The moderate correlation between participants’ intimate relationship willingness and well-being suggests that intimate partner violence victims’ eagerness or openness to engage in an intimate relationship post-abuse is at least modestly related to their overall psychological functioning and welfare. This finding is related to past research that has shown the positive relationship of happiness and well-being to meaningful relationship engagement as well as post-trauma growth’s link to relationship improvement (Linley & Joseph, 2003; Bauer, McAdams, & Sakaeda, 2005a). The strong link between narrative resolution and well-being suggests that a victim’s ability to make peace with the event by viewing her present situation or state of mind in a positive light is related to higher levels of overall psychological functioning. For example, ‘coherent positive resolution’, which occurs when a well integrated life story of a difficult experience ends positively, is likely to lead to higher resiliency and well-being levels (Pals, 2006). Contrary to my predictions, participants’ satisfaction with the punishment of their perpetrators was did not significantly correlate with their levels of well-being, although a moderate correlation did exist between these two measures. This finding may be due to the fact that when victims have higher levels of other narrative processes (i.e., complexity, resolution, and growth), they may care less about their perpetrator having a more intense punishment. For example, if a victim has made peace with her experiences of relationship violence, she may not be as emotionally invested in the intensity of her abuser’s punishment than someone who still is quite vengeful about her intimate partner violence (see Orth, 2004). However, a moderate relationship does Narrative growth’s large correlation with participants’ well-being levels indicates that victims’ ability to find redemption in their traumas and to focus on a positive, goal-oriented future is linked to their overall sense of wellbeing. Therefore, an intimate partner violence victim’s perception of benefit in 59 exist, so there is some link between increased well-being and increased punishment satisfaction. Importantly, the correlation probably did not reach statistical significance because of the small study sample size, but such a link is likely to exist. and participants’ well-being. In general support of my predictions, I found that rumination was a partial mediator between narrative resolution and wellbeing. This finding suggests that narrative resolution’s effect on well-being is also due to its effect on rumination; therefore, narrative resolution and rumination interact, resulting in a victim’s well-being level. For example, higher levels of narrative resolution lead to lower levels of rumination, which, in turn, are predictive of higher levels of well-being in intimate partner violence victims. Past research supports this finding as individuals who repress trauma (i.e., fail to resolve it) have a higher likelihood of obsessing over the trauma and failing to incorporate the trauma into their overall life stories (Fivush, 2004; Pennebaker & Seagal, 1999). Given that these narrative processes were all significantly correlated with well-being, it was important to examine which process was the most important predictor of well-being. Therefore, I also conducted a linear regression analysis between narrative processes (i.e., narrative complexity, resolution, and growth) and well-being, in which I found narrative resolution to be the most accurate predictor of participants’ well-being levels. This result made intuitive sense as victims’ understanding of their abuse, integration of their abuse into a coherent life story to avoid negative effects, and positive perception of their current life situations and decisions are instrumental in having positive psychological functioning and overall life satisfaction. However, narrative complexity and growth are important, too, as victims’ ability to find redemption (narrative growth) after considering multiple perspectives (narrative complexity) when reflecting on the abuse leads to less regret (i.e., higher levels of resolution) and increased well-being (Ryff, 1989, in King, 2001). Overall, my results suggest that storytelling is a powerful force in an individual’s well-being development. Different narrative processes pinpoint intimate partner violence victims’ overall, daily psychological health and functioning. Within this context, narrative resolution, or victims’ abilities to focus on the positives in their current situations, is the most powerful predictor of their well-being levels. Communion: Intimate Relationship Attitudes and Positive Relations with Others In light of research suggesting that rumination on negative events has negative effects on well-being (see Segerstrom, Tsao, Alden, & Craske, 2000; Thompson, et al., 2005), I examined whether rumination played a role in the relationship between narrative resolution Generally, narrative processes correlated to and were predictive of both relationship outcome measures. Narrative resolution was the only narrative process significantly related to 60 victims’ attitudes toward intimate relationships. However, narrative complexity, resolution, and growth were all strongly correlated with participants’ positive relationships with others; additionally, participants’ satisfaction with the punishment of their perpetrators and also willingness to engage in intimate relationships were strongly correlated with their general relationships with others. Rumination mediator analyses were also telling, as narrative resolution was also the most accurate predictor of intimate relationship attitudes. example, even though past research has found positive change post-trauma to relate to relationship enhancement (see Linley & Joseph, 2003), this does not mean attitudes of victims not currently in relationships about potential romantic relationship involvement will be any more positive per se. Secondly, past research has supported a link between well-being and a trauma victim’s ability to understand multiple perspectives in relationships (Bauer, McAdams, & Pals, 2006); thus, a victim’s overall sense of well-being (e.g., hope, lack of fear in daily life) may relate to a victim’s specific attitudes towards intimate relationships. In fact, in this study, although well-being and intimate relationship attitudes were not significantly correlated (r=.35, p>.05) probably due a small sample size, a substantial relationship does exist Intimate Relationship Attitudes In terms of the effects of narrative processes on IPV victims’ intimate relationship attitudes, narrative resolution was the only narrative process that significantly correlated with these attitudes. This result suggests that victims’ level of acceptance about their abuse is predictive of their intimate relationship fear, confidence, and motivation. For example, if a victim has resolved the abuse trauma to a greater extent, she will be more confident and willing to be an intimate partner. Lastly, contrary to my predictions, victims’ levels of contentment with their perpetrators’ punishments and their intimate relationship willingness were not significantly correlated with their intimate relationship attitudes. Even if a victim is content with her previous perpetrator’s punishment level, this does not necessarily mean that she lacks fear or has confidence as an intimate partner; her satisfaction with the perpetrator’s punishment is just one sentiment pertaining to her abusive experience and does not necessarily represent how she feels overall (e.g., punishment satisfaction was not significantly correlated with well-being (r=.34, p>.05); however, a substantial relationship does exist, which could potentially be significant in larger studies). However, although I predicted that higher levels of narrative complexity and growth would also be related to more positive relationship attitudes, these correlations were surprisingly not significant. A possible explanation for the lack of a strong relationship between narrative growth and such relationship attitudes may have to do with the difference between individuals’ sentiments towards relationships and actual engagement in relationships; for 61 I also conducted a linear regression analysis to ascertain which narrative process was the most accurate predictor of participants’ intimate relationship attitudes. I found that narrative resolution was the most predictive of participants’ attitudes concerning romantic involvement with potential partners. This result makes intuitive sense as victims’ abilities to make peace with and overcome their past abusive experiences should be foretelling of how open they are to engage in a new intimate relationship. Such a strong relationship between these measures suggests that a victim’s level of acceptance of the abuse, redemption, and integration of multiple emotions and perspectives into her narrative are indicative of her general trust, comfort, and intimacy level in relationships. These results relate to past research that has shown post-trauma growth and happiness to be linked to relationship development, understanding, and wellbeing (Linley & Joseph, 2003; Bauer, McAdams, & Sakaeda, 2005a). Secondly, I also found that punishment satisfaction and intimate relationship willingness were strongly correlated with the outcome measure of positive relations with others. These findings are interesting in that, for example, a victim’s contentment with her perpetrator’s level of punishment is then indicative of her overall contentment in her general relationships with other individuals. This may suggest that a victim’s feelings of validation and that justice has been achieved relate to her ability to then gain satisfaction, validation, and trust in her general interpersonal relationships. Furthermore, the strong correlation between intimate relationship willingness and positive relations with others suggests that victims’ motivation to engage in an intimate relationship is very indicative of their overall enthusiasm and comfort in their relationships besides purely intimate ones. This is in conjunction with past research that has found that communion themes in narratives (e.g., love) are positively related to the development of and need for warm, close relationships (McAdams, Hoffman, Mansfield, & Day, 1996). Lastly, I conducted a regression analysis to see if rumination was a mediator between narrative resolution and intimate relationship attitudes, in which I found rumination to not be a mediator between these two measures. Surprisingly, rumination was not even significantly predictive of intimate relationship attitudes when I conducted the mediator analyses, indicating that narrative resolution’s effect on these relationship attitudes is purely due to a participant’s ability to make peace with her trauma, and not her level of rumination about the trauma. This result is important as it solidifies the importance of narrative resolution’s predictability and relationship to outcome measures, particularly resolution’s role in more positive intimate relationship attitudes. Positive Relations with Others In support of my predictions, all narrative processes (i.e., narrative complexity, resolution, and growth) were strongly correlated with the position relations with others outcome measure. 62 In conducting a linear regression analysis to see which narrative process was the most indicative of the positive relations with others outcome measure, I found narrative complexity to be the most accurate predictor of this outcome measure. This result was unexpected as I thought narrative resolution or growth would be more predictive of individuals’ general relationship engagement than narrative complexity. However, this finding can be explained by past research that has shown complexity to buffer the effects of resolution, indicating complexity’s pertinent role as a narrative processing tool in lieu of the other processes (see Mansfield et al., 2009). Therefore, the ability of individuals to see multiple perspectives (e.g., perpetrator’s or children’s perspective) and to integrate numerous emotions about their trauma into a coherent life story is predictive of how healthy their general relationships are and how they conduct themselves in these relationships. This study also has important implications for the conduct of therapy with intimate partner violence victims. Therapists should emphasize storytelling, particularly how different negative experiences fit into an overall life narrative. This conceptualization of events is significant as it helps prevent traumas from overtaking life narratives, and, instead, helps individuals realize that their abusive experiences do not encompass their entire identity. Significance of the Study Limitations and Future Directions The present study’s focus on narrative processing in victims of intimate partner violence is an important addition to the literature on coping with trauma. Although past research has examined the role of narrative processing in various types of trauma victims, research to date lacks in its examination of the relationship between narrative processing, well-being, and capacity for relationships in this specific type of IPV trauma. Finding numerous significant relationships between narrative processes, rumination, and outcome measures is significant in further One of the main limitations in my study is the issue of causality. Although I conducted linear regression analyses examining which narrative processes were the most predictive of outcome measures, I did not consider whether such outcome measures of well-being and capacities for relationships were predictive of individuals’ narrative processing. For example, a victim’s level of well-being could influence how she tells her story; higher levels of well-being could lead to enhanced resolution or growth in one’s story, whereas lower well-being levels could predict less showing the potent importance of storytelling, especially since intimate partner violence is culturally silenced to a great extent in our society (see Fivush, 2004). Individuals vary in their integration of past experiences into their life stories, and, in effect, their abilities to recover from traumas such as relationship violence; however, as my research indicates, different ways of processing such traumatic experiences are linked to and predictive of different outcomes. 63 emotional processing of traumas in one’s life story. Future research should address these limitations by not only looking at the effect of narrative processing on wellbeing and other proposed outcome measures, but also seeing if such outcome measures are indeed predictive of proposed predictor variables (see McLean, Pasupathi, & Pals, 2007). However, the most effective way to address this limitation would be for researchers to conduct a longitudinal study in which they assessed narratives at time 1 and then assessed changes in well-being from time 1 to time 2. genders in the way respective genders narrate and interpret events, and how such processing is related to well-being levels. Conducting the study with a larger sample from more diverse venues would also be interesting; although I conducted my study at two advocacy non-profits for relationship violence victims and obtained a quite diverse sample, it would also be helpful to obtain participants from college campuses to examine differences in victim experiences in a close university setting versus in the larger community. Also, it would be interesting to study the effects of therapy length and age on intimate partner violence victims’ stories and overall wellbeing. Some past research has shown, for example, the beneficial effects of therapy on individuals’ storytelling abilities, understanding of traumas, and psychological well-being (Pals, 2006). Furthermore, past research has found a positive relationship between age, life story development, understanding of traumas, and overall self-view (Pasupathi & Mansour, 2006; McAdams et al., 2006). These future research endeavors would give us a better understanding of other forces that are important in shaping victims’ narratives, particularly how individual differences emerge and how such individuals cope with traumas in their lives. Another main limitation in my study is its small sample size and the fact that all of the participants were females. The small sample size prevented my results from being more significant and also prevented me from using variables I initially wanted to include in my study. The all female sample is also limiting, as past research indicates that women are more likely to view themselves as victims than are men (Sanderson & McKeough, 2005), so my study may not be generalized across genders. Future research should address these limitations by duplicating this study with a larger, more diverse sample. This way, researchers could see whether there are marked differences across Bauer, J. J., McAdams, D. P., & Sakaeda, A. R. (2005b). 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Concordance between Hopkins symptom Appendix Table 1 Descriptive Statistics for Narrative Processes, Well-being, and Relationship Outcome Measures M SD Range Scale Narrative Complexity 3.22 1.21 1.00-5.00 1-5 Narrative Resolution 3.47 1.19 2.00-5.00 1-5 Narrative Processes 67 Narrative Growth 3.25 1.24 1.00-5.00 1-5 2.96 1.07 1.00-5.00 1-5 Intimate Relationship Willingness 3.03 1.23 1.00-5.00 1-5 Additional Narrative Components Punishment Satisfaction Well-being Symptoms Checklist 2.73 0.83 1.20-3.90 1-4 Psychological Well-being 4.09 1.14 2.00-5.89 1-6 Positive Relations with Others 4.22 0.86 1.75-5.75 1-6 Intimate Relationship Attitudes 2.79 1.01 1.00-4.87 1-5 Relationship Measures 68 Table 2 Interview Protocol Sections and Specific Questions Interview section I. Role model Question types How this individual is a role model II. Intimate Partner Violence Description Basic information about IPV Effect on values, self-concept, and world view How feelings about IPV have changed over time III. Treatment Path to treatment decision Path to escaping abusive relationship Effect on life overall and view of self IV. Punishment of Perpetrator Has perpetrator been punished If punishment led to satisfaction/relief in victim V. Life beliefs Fundamental beliefs and values about life/world Overall philosophy of life VI. Future Chapters Next life chapter Ability to engage relationships 69 in future intimate VII. Reflection Thoughts and feelings during interview Additional comments about interview process ______________________________________________________________________________ IPV=Intimate Partner Violence 70 .46** 2. Narrative Resolution .48** .41** 4. Punishment Satisfaction 5. Relationship Willingness .58** - 1. Narrative Complexity 3. Narrative Growth 1 Variables .47** .42** .64** - .46** 2 71 .67** .36 - .64** .58** 3 Correlations: Narrative Processes, Well-being, and Relationships Table 3 .38* - .36 .42* .48** 4 - .38* .67** .47** .41** 5 - - - - - 6 - - - - - 7 - - - - - 8 - - - - - 9 .00 .58** 7. Intimate Relationship Attitudes 8. Positive Relations with Others p<.05*, p<.01** 9. Rumination - .52** 6. Well-being -.31 .49** .42** .59** 72 -.50** .53** .16 .51** -.58** .58** .13 .34 -.44* .55** .34 .43* -.64** .51** .35 - -.69** .06 - - -.44* - - - -.47** - - - Table 4 Summary of Linear Regression Analysis for Narrative Processes and Well-being (N=32) Variable B SE B Narrative Growth .06 .15 .07 Narrative Resolution .32 .14 .41* Narrative Complexity .29 .22 .13 ______________________________________________________________________________ Note: R2 =. 43, p<.05* Table 5 Summary of Linear Regression Analysis for Narrative Processes and Intimate Relationship Attitudes (N=32) Variable SE B B 73 Narrative Growth -.06 .19 -.07 Narrative Resolution .48 .19 .57* Narrative Complexity -.22 -.18 .17 ______________________________________________________________________________ Note: R2 =. 23, p<.05* Table 6 Summary of Linear Regression Analysis for Narrative Processes and Positive Relations with Others (N=32) Variable B SE B Narrative Growth .13 .14 .18 Narrative Resolution .14 .14 .19 Narrative Complexity .38* .27 .13 ______________________________________________________________________________ Note: R2 =. 41, p<.05* Appendix A 74 NARRATIVE CODING MANUAL Complexity Narrative complexity refers to the depth of thought in narratives and individuals’ abilities to see different perspectives and outcomes (Mansfield, 2009), and is reflected in plots, themes, characters, and settings that are intertwined into an overall life narrative (Singer, 2005). Scoring: Listed below are different sub-scales to consider while deciding on an overall score for complexity. A participant will be given one overall score for complexity, ranging from a 1-5. • Multiple Perspective Taking a. Seeing/experiencing the IPV experience from someone else’s point of view b. Reporting how event has affected other people besides oneself c. Examples: i. Seeing experience from children’s point of view (“The abuse was very difficult for my children.”; “I had to get out of the relationship for my children’s sake.”) ii. Seeing experience from perpetrator’s point of view (“I don’t think he realized what the impact of his actions was/is.”; “It seemed like he felt like it was my fault only.”) iii. Seeing friend/parent perspective • Emotion a. Participant identified various emotions (at least two different, contrasting emotions) b. The coder must identify the first emotion and then compare it to other emotions, thereby ensuring that at least 2 different emotions are present c. Crying is not sufficient for presence of an emotion—emotions must be explicitly stated d. The variety of emotions applies to the narrative as a whole. The participant may identify two emotions in the same sentence or an emotion may be stated and then later a different emotion about the same subject/event may be stated. It is important that there is a very clear differentiation between 75 emotions (i.e., “I was sad but now I am still sad, but to a lesser degree” would not count as two different emotions) e. Examples: i. “I felt sad at the time… but now I am happy to be out of the relationship.” ii. “I am so angry that I let it go on for so long… I felt helpless at the time, though. I’m pleased the abuse is over at least.” iii. “I am glad we did the interview today…I get sad thinking about the event, though.” • Analytical Reasoning a. The participant communicates clear cause and effect by identifying causes or effects of behavior, psychological states, self-examination, and weighing multiple options in a situation to determine the most appropriate course of action. b. Examples: i. “I wanted to change my negative outlook about my IPV, so I realized I needed to strive to think positively and change my negative thoughts.” ii. “I was depressed, lonely, and downtrodden during the abuse, but I made an effort to live a purposeful, fruitful life even though this event had scarred me.” • Meaning/Implications a. Participant has found meaning from the event, has learned from the event, or has found the event self-transforming b. Change in the way participant views self or behaves/acts c. Participant may change the way she thinks about others or how she treats others d. Discussion of far-reaching implications of IPV event e. Discussion about past IPV impacts participant’s present self or overall life story f. Examples: i. “The event happened for a reason and it has impacted how I view myself and those individuals surrounding me.” ii. “I have learned that I am not alone—other women are victims of IPV as well. I think of my life in that way and the others who suffer from this abuse, too—I have learned we are all fighting this together.” Complexity Scoring: 76 (1) Absence of complexity: ~0 of the above items a. The woman sees herself as the total victim and focuses on the emotional wreckage she personally is experiencing b. The woman has overall one emotion present (e.g., sadness, anger) c. The woman conveys explicitly or implicitly that she is not ready to change her negative self outlook, behaviors, or psychological/mental state or is unaware of the cause/effect relationship between these phenomena d. The woman does not believe she has learned anything meaningful from the IPV experience or that the experience impacts her or her life story (2) Minimum complexity: ~1 of the above items a. Woman has presence of approximately 1 of the above criteria b. Examples: i. Woman explicitly conveys various emotions in her narrative (i.e., sadness, happiness, regret, hope). General presence of only woman’s perspective of events. Woman is still unable/not willing to see how negative outlook impacts her well-being and does not really see meaningfulness or the learning value of her IPV experience. ii. Woman has gained meaning from the event and believes the event has made her a stronger person. General presence of only woman’s perspective of events. Woman is still generally unable/not willing to reason how her negative outlook inhibits her from fully changing her behavior into actions that are more productive. Overall, only one emotion present. c. Overall, a general lack of diverse emotions in narrative and presence of only woman’s perspective of events. Woman still lacks reasoning in the causal nature of her mindset and behavior and has yet to see the meaningfulness of the event. (3) Moderate complexity: ~2 of the above items a. Woman has presence of approximately 2 of the above criteria b. Examples: i. The woman has presence of both sadness and happiness in her narrative and sees how her previous negative outlook was causing her sadness, which then caused her to be proactive in striving for happiness and contentment. It is still not clear that the woman has gained meaning or has learned from her IPV experience and she still tells the story in a way that only implicates her. ii. The woman conveys clear analytical reasoning as she states how she recognized how her negative outlook was bringing her down and then proactively tried to change her negative ways/thoughts. The woman is also cognizant of how the IPV experience has affected her children as she notes the emotional toll of the abuse on her children; the woman sees her children as one reason for escaping the abusive relationship. However, the woman has not gained positive meaning 77 from the abuse and does not clearly convey multiple, differing emotions (e.g., the narrative is very one-dimensional—blunted affect) c. Overall, the woman is starting to gain meaning from the IPV experience and shows some diversity of emotion, even though one emotion is dominant. Woman has some reasoning and insight into the IPV experience, but still spends a lot of the time focusing on how the event has mainly affected her. (4) Advanced complexity: ~3 of the above items a. Woman has presence of approximately 3 of the above criteria b. Examples: i. The woman identifies various emotions in her narrative, has gained meaning from the IPV event, and has clear reasoning as to how her negative view on life prompted a positive behavioral/mental change in herself. The woman’s narrative, however, is still one-dimensional, as she tends to focus on how the IPV experience has affected her only. ii. The woman identifies various emotions in her narrative, has clear reasoning as to how her negative view on life prompted a positive behavioral/mental change in herself, and encompasses multiple perspectives (children’s, perpetrator’s, etc.). The woman has not gained a clear meaning from the IPV experience and does not clearly define what she has learned from it. c. Overall, the woman has multiple emotions present in the narrative and most likely notes how the event has affected her children, perpetrator, etc. The woman sees the cause and effect nature of her thought processes and behaviors/outlook and has a general sense of having gained positive meaning from the IPV experience. (5) Highest complexity: ~4 of the above items a. The woman expresses having gained a comprehensive understanding of the event and has developed positive meaning from the event b. The woman clearly identifies causes and effects of her thoughts and outlook on life and wants to change such sentiments c. Definite presence of multiple, contrasting emotions that the woman integrates into narrative d. Presence of multiple perspective taking (e.g., how this event affects her children; woman feeling horrible for children; woman’s perpetrator has done some bad things, but she doesn’t believe that makes the perpetrator a terrible person, etc.) 78 Resolution Narrative resolution occurs when an individual makes peace with difficult life events and experiences within context of life story (Mansfield, 2009). Scoring: Listed below are different sub-scales to consider while deciding on an overall score for resolution. A participant will be given one overall score for resolution, ranging from a 15. • Closed Influence vs. Continuing Influence a. Closed influence: This means that the IPV event is still influential in the participant’s life, but the event is not affecting the participant in negative ways (e.g., disrupting daily routine, letting event take over thought processes) b. Continuing influence: This means that the participant is still overly concerned with event details and ruminates over such details and has a negative affect due to the event c. Examples: i. Closed: “I think about the event still, but I don’t get sad and start crying about it anymore.”; “I don’t let my past experience with abuse rule my life anymore.” ii. Continuing: Participant is audibly distraught by event; participant goes into unnecessarily long detail about the event; “I still feel like I can’t go places or do things that I used to like to do… I live in fear.”; “I don’t feel like I have a new outlook on life due to the abuse…I still feel angry, upset, and degraded.” • Positivity of the Solution a. The participant describes the solution (e.g., if applicable, getting out of the relationship, receiving treatment) in a positive manner and views it as a ‘positive course of action’ b. If no solution has been found (e.g., participant is still in abusive relationship, participant is trying to get out of relationship), participant can still gain credit for this section if she is feeling positively/ok at the moment c. Examples: i. “I am so thankful I got out of the abusive relationship and joined a support group. I feel like I am such a strong woman.” 79 ii. “Although I am still in the relationship, I am feeling good about my plan of action—that is, to get a separation and take care of my kids.” • Present Counteracts Past a. Participant’s current situation or current events in participant’s life counteract, or offset, the past abusive event b. If abusive is current: a change in the participant’s outlook even though abuse is still on-going; participant has taken initial steps to address abuse and make the situation better c. There is a contrast of emotions in participant’s narrative, which implies that thoughts, feelings, etc. are different now, which further demonstrates resolution and emotional positivity d. Examples: i. “That was the worst period of my life.” ii. “I was so angry and sad about the abuse for the longest time…now I’ve realized that everything happens for a reason and life is going to work out all right for me.” iii. “I am trying to get out of the relationship at the moment…hopefully I can get a separation from my spouse…I am just glad that I joined a support group to start the healing process.” • Overt statements that event is resolved/unresolved Resolution Scoring: (1) No resolution a. The IPV issue is completely unresolved and the woman is still immersed in it. b. Overt statement of no resolution or, if overt statement of no resolution is accompanied by presence of resolution (i.e., by meeting the criteria for one of the other resolution items), coder must make the decision of whether to move the participant to 2. (2) Beginning resolution a. The woman is in the beginning/initial stage of resolving the IPV experience. b. The woman has begun the resolution process but still has lots more work to do before she will have the IPV experience behind her. c. Small amount of closure and a stronger lack of resolution. (3) Mixed/neutral resolution a. Woman shows moderate amount of resolution. b. The woman may also say nothing about resolution at all—narrative neutral. 80 c. The woman seems to be making genuine progress in her resolution of the event but still states things that make it apparent that the situation is still not resolved. d. The woman will appear neither more nor less resolved but in the middle. (4) Advanced resolution a. The woman is on her way to resolving the issue, but the issue is still not closed. b. The woman makes a lot of statements that suggest the situation is almost resolved, but doubt still lingers in the coder as to how much peace or closure the woman is actually experiencing. c. The woman’s actions must show that the event is nearly resolved (words are not sufficient). (5) Complete resolution a. Woman communicates complete/overt evidence of resolution. b. The woman will typically see the event as part of her past (the event can still be influential, though). c. The woman is no longer processing the event and explicitly or implicitly conveys acceptance of the event and that it is closed. d. The woman can still feel sad/angry/etc. but her feelings are a normal, negative affect that is to be expected. e. The woman’s actions must show that the event is resolved (words are not sufficient). Growth Growth is a positive change in thinking that occurs when reflecting on a difficult event, leading to maturity, strength, and health (Mansfield, 2009). Scoring: Listed below are different sub-scales to consider while deciding on an overall score for growth. A participant will be given one overall score for growth, ranging from a 1-5. • Life Goals and Best Possible Self: Personal and Communal a. When setting life goals, an individual seeks to become the best version of him or herself, which is referred to as one’s ‘best possible self’ (King & Hicks, 2006). In narratives, the amount, ease, vividness, and emotional depth with which individuals think about their best possible selves is pertinent to growth. 81 b. Examples: i. “Next in my life story, I am going to get an apartment, a job, etc….I am going to be an independent woman.” ii. “I do envision myself having intimate relationships in the future…maybe not right now…but I think someone is out there for me.” iii. “I am hopeful about the future…there is a plan for me and I know it’s good.” • Redemption Sequences a. Redemption sequences/redemption imagery occur when a negative life experience is followed by or transformed into a positive life experience scene. b. Thematic categories/examples: i. Redemption imagery ii. Enhanced agency iii. Enhanced communion iv. Ultimate concerns c. Redemption imagery: movement from demonstrably negative (can be a negative feeling or a negative event) to demonstrably positive scene (e.g., positive emotion, positive cognitive state (self understanding, self insight, etc.), and events leading to positive feelings in most people (e.g., healing, growth, close relationships, learning, reconciliation, etc.). i. The positive state does not need to be positive to the same degree that the negative state is negative. ii. If conceptualized as Aà B, A may cause B or a may just precede B in time 1. A à B examples: a. Sacrifice: Person endures negative A to get to a benefit of B (Woman leaves abusive husband and is homeless à finds support in shelter) b. Recovery: Physical/psychological negative state is followed by healing state (Depression à regaining of positive outlook on life) c. Growth: Negative experience leads to psychological/interpersonal growth/benefit (Woman endures and eventually ends unhappy relationship with perpetrator à woman becomes more confident, happier, and experiences self-understanding) d. Learning: Negative event leads person to gain new knowledge, wisdom, skills, etc. (Woman almost dies from perpetrator’s extreme abuse à woman learns to no longer fear death) 82 e. Improvement/Other: Covers areas not included in the other categories but are still under the umbrella of bad situation containing negative affect becoming a better situation containing positive affect (very bad marriage à very good relationship; lonely/depressed à conversion to Christianity, feels ecstatic) d. Common Redemption Examples: i. Enhanced agency 1. Transformation from negative to positive leads to enhancement of woman’s personal power or agency (e.g., selfconfidence, efficacy, personal resolve, or insight into personal identity) ii. Enhanced communion 1. Transformation from negative to positive leads to enhancement of woman’s personal relationships of love, friendship, family ties, etc. iii. Ultimate concerns 1. Transformation from negative to positive contains involvement in or confrontation with existential issues or ultimate concerns. For example, this event brings the woman face-to-face with death, God, or other religious/spiritual dimensions of life. Growth Scoring: (1) No growth a. Woman does not show any signs of growth from the IPV experience. b. The negative event (i.e., IPV) has not led to any positive outcome. (2) Minimum growth a. The woman is in the beginning/initial stage of growing from the IPV experience. b. The woman has begun to show signs of growth from the negative event but still needs to grow a lot more from the IPV experience. c. Minimal presence of redemption sequences in narratives and minimal positive outlook on the future. (3) Moderate growth a. Woman shows modest amount of growth. b. The woman seems to have grown somewhat from the event but still states things that make it apparent that she is still in the process of growing and learning things from the IPV experience. 83 (4) Advanced growth a. The woman is well on her way to fully growing from the event, but the issue is still not closed. b. The woman makes a lot of statements that suggest that she is in the advanced stages of growth from the event, but doubt still lingers in the coder as to how much growth or closure the woman is actually experiencing. c. Overall inclusion of redemption sequences and statements that lead the coder to believe the woman is envisioning her best possible self. (5) Complete growth a. Woman communicates complete/overt evidence of growth. b. The woman will typically see the event as part of her past self (the event can still be influential, though) and she has grown from this event in many ways. c. The woman exhibits a strong commitment to her best possible self and sees her future in a clear, positive way. d. An overall very strong presence of redemption sequences. Perpetrator Punishment Response Participant’s level of satisfaction with the consequences for the perpetrator: 1 2 3 4 5 Punishment Satisfaction Scoring: (1) No satisfaction • The participant is not satisfied at all with her perpetrator’s punishment/lack of punishment. (2) Minimum satisfaction • The participant is largely dissatisfied with perpetrator’s level of punishment and is not happy with the result. (3) Moderate satisfaction • The participant has some satisfaction with her perpetrator’s degree of punishment but the coder senses she is still not very satisfied. 84 (4) Strong satisfaction • The participant is overall satisfied with her perpetrator’s punishment and does not convey that she wants any large changes to his/her punishment. (5) Complete satisfaction • The participant is totally satisfied and content with her perpetrator’s punishment and does not see any changes that need to be made. Intimate Relationship Response Participant’s level of willingness to enter into intimate relationship: 1 2 3 4 5 Intimate Relationship Willingness Scoring: (1) No willingness • The participant is not willing at all to engage in an intimate relationship. (2) Minimum willingness • The participant is largely unwilling to engage in an intimate relationship. (3) Moderate willingness • The participant has some willingness to engage in an intimate relationship but the coder senses she is still not very willing. (4) Strong willingness • The participant is overall willing to engage in an intimate relationship. (5) Complete willingness The participant is totally willing to engage in an intimate relationship. The coder senses no hesitation in participant’s willingness. The participant is currently in a successful intimate relationship (not abusive). • 85 The Dynamics of Doubt Max Counter, Class of 2010 Introduction points out, the term ‘doubt’ comes from the Latin dubito, derived from the Old Latin dubo, from duo or ‘two.’ MacGregor therefore notes that doubt “is not to be equated with belief or unbelief but rather with a vacillation between the two opposites: unbelief and belief” (2424). As such, the word doubt, “although often regarded as the opposite of belief, signifies primarily vacillation, perplexity, irresolution” (Geddes 2424). Therefore, doubt is not taken as an expression of disbelief but of uncertainty. In the polemics surrounding religion in contemporary society, few voices ring more loudly than Richard Dawkins’. An evolutionary biologist at Oxford University, Dawkins unapologetically attacks religion and blames it for a host of societal ills. In his best-selling book, The God Delusion, Dawkins constructs a seven part spectrum of religious belief. He notes that the spectrum is continuous, but it is encapsulated by two poles of ‘certainty’: The first pole is “1. Strong theist. 100 percent probability of God. In the words of C.G Jung, ‘I do not believe, I know.” At the other end of the spectrum we find “7. Strong atheist. ‘I know there is no God, with the same conviction as Jung ‘knows’ there is one’” (Dawkins 73). While these two positions lie at opposite extremes of the spectrum, they nonetheless share the common of element of certainty. Each side is utterly and unquestioningly convinced of the validity of its own propositions. I first attempt to detail the dynamic potentialities of doubt within religious life. In this respect, doubt can play two equally powerful, yet diametrically opposed roles: it has the ability to be a wellspring of creativity or a source of crippling stagnancy. Secondly, I seek to understand the sociological factors present by which doubt emerges within a specific time and space, particularly modern, ‘secular’ society. In so doing, I seek to move the focus away from individual experience of doubt to illumine possible societal contexts which are conducive to engendering doubt. Ultimately, a broad survey of doubt— whether focusing on the lived experience of individuals or larger sociological trends—demonstrates that doubt is by no means a unitary phenomenon. It is this sort of certainty with which this paper does not concern itself. Rather, throughout this investigation I seek to further illumine the implications of doubt in the lives of religious persons. More often than not, the term doubt is confounded with disbelief. Yet it is vital to distinguish between these two terms. As philosopher Geddes MacGregor With respect to individual experience of doubt, the character of 86 such doubt is dictated by several factors. It is important to distinguish the object towards which doubt is directed. The range is expansive: we may doubt the existence of ultimate metaphysical reality; we may doubt the religious activities and symbols we employ in order to stand in relation to that reality; or we may even doubt our own ability as agents to be effectively in accord with transcendence. Religious individuals have directed doubt towards these various objects, and in so doing found either the ability to respond creatively or faced the possibility of a stifling skepticism. Protestant theologians Paul Tillich and M. Holmes Hartshorne prove especially insightful in further understanding the first possibility of doubt’s creative potential. The Greek school of Skepticism elucidated by Sextus Empiricus further elucidates the second option, namely the stagnating capacity of doubt. Perhaps the truest thing that can be said about doubt is that its only essential element is uncertainty. The Creative and Crippling Potentialities of Doubt Insofar as we question, look upon the world critically, and challenge the certainty of any given proposition, we act as doubters. ‘The unexamined life is not worth living,’ proclaimed Socrates. Philosopher Robert M. Baird explains that in so doing, “Socrates meant that to be a rational human being is to have a kind of creative doubt about one’s fundamental value beliefs, a creative doubt that promotes, within reason, a continual reappraisal of such beliefs” (Baird 172). In this instance, doubt doesn’t engender a destructive state of hopeless despair in which one becomes disenchanted with what he or she deeply believes and values. Rather, doubt acts a sort of refining mechanism—a means by which one tests and appraises what he or she holds to be true. In proceeding as such—especially with respect to religious belief—Baird argues that one’s doubt offers the possibility of significant creative potential. Apart from doubt’s creative and/or crippling potential, we can see how— specifically through St. Augustine as well as the Zen notion of the Great Doubt—doubt in and of itself can be integral to religious experience. Further, contemporary psychological studies illumine the mental effects doubt has in the lives of religious persons. As is evident, the focus on doubt will be construed through many lenses in the following pages. It is my hope that by looking at doubt in the lives of religious men and women—albeit in varying times, places, and religious traditions— we can come to see more clearly the dynamic nature of uncertainty in religious life. What we doubt, and how we respond to such doubt, vary radically. However, Baird cautions that doubt’s creative potential is limited to certain contexts. As a foil to Socrates’ call for an open-minded inquisitiveness towards our beliefs, Baird highlights Spanish author Miguel de Unamuno’s renowned work, San Manuel Bueno, martir (St. Emmanuel the Good, Martyr). In Unamuno’s short story, we come to know the parish priest San Manuel, who is deeply beloved by the townspeople of Valverde de Lucerna. We also see a 87 profound tension: just as San Manuel serves as a model of religious inspiration and devotion for his flock, he personally harbors deep seated doubts about God. Yet he doesn’t disclose his secret, and instead chooses to take it to his grave rather than shake the faith of the people who love and adore him so much. Throughout the book, San Manuel undergoes extreme duress in wrestling with his doubt. Yet he ultimately conceals his doubt so as not to arouse a devastating threat to the faith of the townspeople.1 whose dogmatic and inconsistent views are her abiding source of joy and comfort” (174). Given this premise, Baird presents four foci around which doubt can manifest its creative potential, even though he acknowledges “that there are other settings in which such activity would be inappropriate” (174). He identifies these four foci as 1) acknowledging human limitations; 2) keeping fundamental beliefs alive; 3) challenging the adequacy of symbols; and 4) challenging the quest for certainty. In these four areas Baird seeks to show the domains in which doubt functions as a wellspring of vitality as opposed to inhibiting uncertainty. Baird explains that in this instance we see “an age-old conflict. Socrates versus Emmanuel. Truth versus happiness. And the reason it is an ageold conflict is precisely because the competing claims of the two values— truth and contentment—are both so compelling” (173). Socrates calls his students to doubt so that they may better know truth while San Manuel conceals doubt so as to not rupture the contentment of his flock. Consequently, Baird posits that doubt ought to be approached differently, depending on whose beliefs are subject. Presumably, embracing doubt will have different consequences for curiously committed individuals seeking truth as opposed to “a ninety-five-year-old grandmother With respect to the first domain, ‘Acknowledging human limitations’ Baird focuses specifically on Paul Tillich’s conception of faith. In Dynamics of Faith Tillich argues that faith is the state of being ‘ultimately concerned’: “Faith is a total and centered act of the personal self, the act of unconditional, infinite, and ultimate concern” (Tillich 9). Faith is the means by which we become engaged with whatever it is that we consider to be the Absolute. Baird argues that doubt can potentially play a creative role when directed towards our ‘ultimate concern’ to the extent that we use doubt as means to acknowledge our limitations. That is, as doubters we critically ask ourselves if we are truly standing in relation to the ultimate. Baird explains,“The very fact that faith can be misplaced, that is, that one can take as ultimate that which is not ultimate at all, is a reflection of the logical possibility that a person may be mistaken” (175). Baird’s presumption is that through doubt, we recognize our possibility for error, and thus enact our 1 A 2004 study published in Sociology of Religion entitled “Religious Doubt and Health: Exploring the Potential Dark Side of Religion” found that religious doubt had psychologically deleterious effects for religious Americans. The study also found that religious doubt has a “more deleterious effect on the health and well-being of individuals who occupy formal roles in the church, than on rank and file members who do not have a formal church role” (36). 88 creative capacities in order to correct and avoid error, or misplacement of faith. ‘atman’ (Hecht 104). The Buddha doubted the traditional rendering of God and gods commonly expounded at the time. Yet in doubting God he didn’t negate that there was ultimate meaning to reality. Rather, through his doubt he articulated a different means by which people come to engage with such meaning. For the Buddha, dharma not Brahman would be of ultimate concern. Baird concludes that “creative doubt is a constructive expression of the recognition that one is not God, and therefore, just may be mistaken” (175). In recognizing that we may be mistaken, we are called to be actively refining our faith, and this is where doubt’s creative potential arises. Historian of Religion Wilfred Cantwell Smith explains that each caste in Indian society had its own dharma or “pattern of religio-social behavior” (Smith 13). He additionally explains that dharma was only important to the extent that it facilitated the “truly major endeavor” of transcending the mundane world to “attain a numinous Reality (“Bhraman”) beyond it” (14). Smith continues that what “the Buddha did was to reverse the order of these levels. For him Brahman and the Gods, while not negated, became part of this world; while dharma was elevated to finality, to absolute transcendence” (14). That is, the Buddha maintained that dharma , right living in this world, should be of ultimate concern, not attaining an otherworldly Brahman status. Smith concludes that for the Buddha, “the only final truth is goodness, that a human life well lived reflects, exemplifies, transcendent reality. The point is not to transcend the world but to live well in it” (14). Here we see Baird’s first facet of doubt’s creative potential manifest. The Buddha felt that an ultimate orientation towards ‘atman’ and Brahman was a human error. He doubted the dominant religious conceptions of his time and in so doing articulated a new means by which men The Buddha’s response to the dominant Vedic religious traditions of his time illustrates this specific facet of doubt’s creative potential. As historian Jennifer Michael Hecht explains, “Siddhartha Gautama created a way of living that actively addressed the seeming rupture between the human world and the nonhuman universe, and he did so while profoundly doubting God or gods” (Hecht 111). In particular, Siddhartha expressed a great uncertainty towards the Vedic notion of True Self, or ‘atman.’ Hecht continues, “The religion of the Vedas held that human beings who had reached the stage of the Brahman could come to know their true self, their atman, and thereby reach bliss and release” (104). Yet throughout his religious endeavors, Siddhartha was never able to realize such a notion. In fact, quite the opposite occurred. Upon becoming enlightened he sought to fundamentally redirect our ‘ultimate’ focus: “Instead of using [Vedic] techniques to find our atman, our truest self, we are to use these techniques, the Buddha instructed, to come to understand Anatman, the doctrine of noself—the Sanskrit negation ‘an-‘ attached to the great Hindu ideal, 89 and women transcendence. could partake then, may serve as a check against idolatry itself. (177) of Baird’s second focus maintains that doubt also has the power to revitalize old beliefs and practices. He specifically claims that doubt plays a role in ‘keeping fundamental beliefs alive’: “Most basic beliefs and value commitments are initially inherited from parents, peers, and society at large. If these beliefs and commitments are not challenged by creative doubt, they tend to become simply verbal professions having little vitality” (175). Baird’s point here is simple: passively accepting the veracity of a statement without ever questioning its integrity can potentially lead to stagnant, seemingly dogmatic engagement. Doubt can be creative if it stimulates a vivacious, inquisitive spirit with respect to inherited religious beliefs and commitments. Protestant theologian M. Holmes Hartshorne echoes this sentiment, noting that not just symbols, but religious practice itself, can fall prey to idolatrous tendencies. In The Faith to Doubt he contends, “Without doubt, faith easily becomes idolatrous, and religious activities and beliefs usurp the place of God…like all else human the church’s doctrines are subject to error and bias, and only radical doubt can prevent their employment as symbols” (Hartshorne 102-103). Within the Protestant tradition, Martin Luther’s ‘radical doubt’ played a fundamentally creative role. In fact, Hartshorne argues that the central Protestant notion of justification by faith is the product of Luther’s doubt creatively directed toward idolatrous tendencies. Hartshorne notes that Luther through “bitter experience…discovered the endemic impurity of all human motives” (94). Luther saw these impure motives acutely present in the Church, specifically through the church’s “separating men from God by fostering an idolatrous dependence upon their own religious zeal” (94). That is, Luther felt that the Church’s stress on good works and the importance of the sacraments (not to mention the sale of indulgences) too heavily redirected focus away from God and back onto humans’ own productive efforts. In expressing his uncertainty in the efficacy of such practices, Luther helped revitalize the notion of justification by faith. “For The third facet of doubt’s creative potential, argues Baird, is its ‘challenge to the adequacy of symbols.’ In most religious traditions there is heavy use of symbols as a means of expressing conceptions of and relations to the ultimate. As Baird points out, the confounding of symbols and the object to which such symbols point is the basis of idolatry. And it is with respect to idolatry that we see doubt’s creative capacity: [T]he one who never doubts the adequacy of his symbols is worshipping his symbols. To worship symbols is to worship the pointers to God rather than God; and to worship something other than God is, by definition, idolatry. Creative doubt, 90 heartlessness; he himself did not know what a day might bring forth but only that the hour for serving God was always present. The Cross of Christ points to the ultimate and radical insecurity of life in the service of God. (102) Luther,” Hartshorne remarks, “the discovery that God’s grace was accessible to simple trust of the heart, was the source of hope and healing” (94). We here see doubt’s creative capacity being used to question the adequacy of symbols and practices. As Hartshorne concludes, “The power of doubt to clarify our thinking, to judge our idolatries, to renew our honesty and our respect for truth, is an aspect of what Luther experienced as the grace of divine forgiveness” (100). Thus, through doubting the teachings and practices of the Church, Luther set in motion the process by which new and vibrant modes of being religious would emerge. In calling into question the legal certainty of the Pharisees, Jesus sought to orient people towards God in a radically new manner. This new orientation towards God, argues Hartshorne, hinges on doubt rather than certainty. He asserts, “The presence of God is utterly ambiguous….The sign which the Pharisees sought was the certainty which legalism and literalism promise, and this is idolatry. The sign that was given them—i.e., the crucified Messiah—they could not accept” (87-88). In this instance, doubting the quest for certainty creates a new mode of addressing ultimate concern. Instead of putting full trust in the Law, there is a new call to become an example of Christ. As Hartshorne points out, doubt about God’s intentions and whether he could accept God’s call were hallmarks of Christ’s life. The fourth facet of doubt’s creative potential, Baird argues, lies in “challenging the quest for certainty.” He states, “The quest for certainty (and the avoidance of doubt) often manifests itself in the effort to find some authority to whom burdensome freedom and responsibility can be surrendered” (177). Baird goes on to point out that, “To flee from this burden, however, is to flee from the very freedom that is a defining characteristic of the fully human” (178). Construed as such, doubt is an essential facet of creativity; by abdicating one’s freedom and responsibility, one loses the ability to think critically and come up with new ideas. Thus far, an analysis of Baird’s four foci of doubt’s creative potential (acknowledging human limitation, keeping fundamental beliefs alive, challenging the adequacy of symbols, and challenging the quest for certainty) has more or less followed a rather simple schema: someone expresses uncertainty with respect to the integrity or veracity of a religious ideal or notion. From this questioning, practices or ideas may be refined or entirely novel means by which one can be religious are created. Turning once again to Hartshorne, we can see how doubting the quest for certainty has played a creative role in the Christian tradition. He writes, The confidence of the Pharisees in their knowledge of God’s will is condemned by Jesus as pride and 91 Yet to Baird’s four foci, I believe it is possible to add a fifth facet of doubt’s creative capacity. Looking to St. Augustine as well as the Great Doubt in Zen, we can see how doubt helps create the circumstances of religious conversion. ‘Conversion’ in this sense does not necessarily mean changing allegiance from one tradition to another, although this may certainly be the case. Rather, I take conversion to mean profoundly a transformative experience whereby one comes to a higher sense of connectedness towards or understanding of that which he or she takes to be the ultimate. Philosopher Mark O. Webb argues that one manner in which this type of experience unfolds is via the ‘doubt-resolution-belief’ sequence. The sequence begins with a feeling of anxiety, and ends with a sense of resolution. Webb explains that “part of the initial anxiety is a doubt about some proposition or set of propositions, and part of the final peace is confidence in a new belief about some proposition or set of propositions” (83). Doubt engenders a sense of anxiety as well as an impetus for resolving such anxiety. And it is in this resolution that such ‘conversion’ is manifest. Augustine “did not feel he was a Christian until he could give up all sex, all food beyond his barest needs, and all worldly enterprise” (195). However, he found himself continually unable to meet these standards and fully dedicate himself to God. In his Confessions he writes: I was deeply disturbed in spirit, angry with indignation and distress that I was not entering into my pact and covenant with you, my God…in the agony of hesitation I made many physical gestures of the kind men make when they want to achieve something and lack the strength. (Augustine 146-147). In this instance, Augustine’s doubt isn’t directed towards God, but rather towards his own abilities to love God fully. He is trapped by his earthly desires, and no matter how hard he tires, he does not feel he has the strength to break their ever-more suffocating hold. Hecht mentions, “We are now on the other side of doubt…hearing not from someone whose doubt is all about getting to the bottom of what’s real, but rather from someone whose doubt is all about actively trying to commit oneself to belief and, momentarily at least, failing” (197). Augustine is particularly illustrative of Webb’s ‘doubt-resolutionbelief’ sequence. Before becoming a Christian, Augustine had varying levels of commitment to a range of Greek, Hebrew, Eastern, and Roman religious traditions (Hecht 198). Throughout this time, Augustine exhibited sensual and prideful tendencies. These tendencies prompted a profound sense of self-doubt when Augustine attempted to convert to Christianity. Hecht argues that Augustine’s profound sense of failure engendered by his self-doubt helps to create an accordingly profound religious experience. In the midst of such turmoil, the voice of a small girl chanting ‘pick up and read’ causes Augustine to pick up the Bible and open to Romans 13:13-14 where Paul says, “Put on the Lord Jesus Christ and make no provision for the flesh in its lusts.” Upon reading this 92 Death.2 It is the inner spiritual doubt that motivates the student’s search for the fundamental meaning of his existence, and finally revives him as a new man of real freedom (345). sentence, Augustine writes in his Confessions, “I neither wished nor needed to read further. At once, with the last words of this sentence, it was as if a light of relief from all anxiety flooded into my heart. All the shadows of doubt were dispelled” (153). In this instance, doubt plays an integral role in setting the stage for Augustine’s conversion experience. Mark O.Webb comments that the longer doubt remains, it tends to become more intense. As such, “the subject must regain equilibrium somehow in order to continue to function in the world, so a radical readjustment of the whole belief system takes place under the pressure of persistent doubt” (84). It is not clear that Augustine underwent a ‘radical readjustment’ of everything he believed, yet there was nonetheless a shift. He had presumably read Paul’s words in Romans before, but it was under the sense of duress caused by his sense of self doubt that Paul’s words seemed to offer a rather bereaved Augustine a new found solace and understanding. In this instance, doubt is creative in so far as it seeks to transcend one’s false ‘dualistic consciousness,’ point to ‘fundamental meaning’ of existence, and revive a being of ‘real freedom.’ In turning to the koans presented in Shibayama’s Zen Comments on the Mumonkan, we can see how this theoretical rendering of the Great Doubt unfolds in the lived experience of Zen Buddhists. The Mumonkan is a collection of Zen koans, teaching, and commentary complied in 13th century Japan. Shibayama oversaw the translation of this text into English in the 1980’s, and in his comments, or teisho, on the koans contained within this text, the constituent elements of the Great Doubt find further illumination. The 45th koan of the Mumonkan reads, “Our Patriarch Master Hoen of Tozan said, ‘Sakyamuni [Buddha] and Maitreya [The Buddha to come] are but his servants. Now tell me, who is he?’” (307). In his teisho, Shibayama comments, “Who is this ‘he’? Arouse the Great Doubt in yourself and see!”(308). He then goes on to state: The Great Doubt found in the Zen tradition also illustrates the manner in which doubt can help create transformative experience. Zenkei Shibayama, former Zen Master of the Nanzenji Monastery in Kyoto, explains that the Great Doubt, Inquire, inquire, and inquire exhaustively until the whole universe is just one lump of Great Doubt. At this extremity, if you do not stop but is not our ordinary intellectual doubt, but the fundamental doubt, or quest, of man that drives him to the last extremity of his dualistic discriminating consciousness in order to break through it in the Great 2 Shibayama writes that the Great Death means to “be dead through and through—to transcend both life and death” (345). To experience the Great Death is to have fully transcended duality and to be in accord with the world of Reality (112). 93 go on doubting and inquiring further, then, when the opportunity is ripe, the time will come when the Great Doubt will naturally be broken through by itself, and you will directly come upon ‘him.’ (308) discriminating consciousness. In pushing through the Great Doubt we break through the separation that is the self; we break through the endless dualities that are engendered by the self. In turn, Buddha Nature arises. As Shibayama explains, “All sentient beings have Buddha Nature. This is the fundamental truth of nondualism and equality (24). We see doubt’s creative capacity as a facet of transcending the discriminating nature of the self and experiencing nondualistic Buddha Nature. How then are we to understand the relation between the Great Doubt and ‘him’? Shibayama tells us, “The ancient Masters were never tired of pointing out that ‘he’ is not someone standing over against ‘I’…that he is one’s original True Self” (308). It is this True Self, one’s ‘Buddha nature’ so to speak (which transcends all dualistic distinctions between ‘he’ and ‘I’) that is realized and intimately known by pushing through the Great Doubt. Thus far, I have attempted to show the manner in which doubt can serve a creative purpose within the life of religious persons. This doubt has been manifest in various ways, including doubting whether our faithful efforts are truly directed toward the ultimate; doubting the adequacy of religious symbols and practice; as well as via the self-doubt of Augustine and the doubting of ‘self’ in Zen. Given the wide-ranging foci of doubt, what are the conditions necessary that doubt might function in a ‘creative’ manner within religion? There appear to be two constituent criteria: 1) The ultimate is not the object of doubt, but rather our relation to the ultimate; and 2) such doubt must not be ‘skeptically dogmatic’. Hence, criterion one establishes doubt’s focus and criterion two details doubt’s character. Shibayama refers to this realization as ‘satori,’ the fundamental experience in Zen. In order to experience satori, “One has to cast his ordinary self away and be reborn as a new self in a different dimension…to transcend the dualism of yes and no, subject and object” (25-26). Satori is experienced via the Great Doubt when one doubts in order ultimately to transcend the self. There is an interplay between one’s own self effort, and the arising of Satori in which ‘self’ is transcended. As Shunryu Suzuki Rōshi explains, “We must make some effort, but we must forget ourselves in the effort we make” (Carter 118). It is this forgetting of the self towards which the Great Doubt orients us. From the standpoint of ‘self’ we employ a discriminating consciousness which propagates false dualities. In proceeding to doubt with more profundity the constituent ideas that make up the notion of ‘self’ we begin to doubt all else that is a product of the self’s Hartshorne directly addresses the first criterion, placing it in a specifically theistic frame. He states that a man is “given the courage to doubt creatively only as he experiences in doubt itself the self-destroying, self-creating power of truth—not some particular truth, not some particular god, but truth as the 94 power of being, the power of God” (101). Creative doubt opens up an avenue for God’s truth. But this doubt is not directed towards God, but to the ‘truths’ and ‘gods’— the finite and idolatrous facets of religion—which we as finite beings construct. As these finite things are projections of ourselves, when we doubt them we experience the ‘selfdestroying’ detailed by Hartshorne; we subsequently engage in ‘self-creating’ by recognizing our true relation to God. Doubt’s creative potential—as manifest in Baird’s four foci—hinges on its object. Implicit in Baird’s four foci is that doubt isn’t directed towards whether or not there is an ‘ultimate’ about which to be concerned; rather we question the veracity of our notions and the manner in which we stand (or fail to stand) in accord with the ultimate. of equal validity. Thus, “[u]nable to decide which was more convincing in all of the inquiries they undertook, they were led to epochē, or to the ‘suspension of judgment’” (32). This suspension of judgment is the cornerstone of the goal of the Skeptical attitude, ataraxia, a state of ‘tranquility, or freedom from disturbance” (32). The Skeptics held that belief, especially with respect to opinions about good and evil, was a primary source of human suffering. Yet, by: [S]uspending judgment about the nature of good and evil, the Skeptic avoids this chaotic pursuit of fragile and uncertain belief: ‘neither avoiding nor pursuing anything with intensity.’ In this way he is freed from imaginary fears, and so ‘his feelings are moderate.’ (Lom 33) Avoiding intensity and moderating feelings constitute the tranquility of ataraxia which the Skeptics believed could only come about through the suspension of judgment. In this sense, Skepticism epitomizes dogmatic doubt because the pursuit of truth is necessarily bracketed. Under this attitude, one does not question his or her doubting attitude towards belief. The second criterion dictates that doubt will not take on a ‘dogmatic’ character. This dogmatic doubt is best exemplified by the ancient Greek school of Phyronnian Skepticism. The Skeptical attitude, as articulated by the 3rd century A.D. scholar Sextus Empiricus, has three constituent parts: isostheneia, epochē , and ataraxia. Political philosopher Petr Lom explains, “The Skeptic finds that for every proposition he examines in any area of inquiry, there is always another contradicting it, and he is never able to come up with a criterion to resolve these differences” (33). This stage represents the first part of Skepticism, isostheneia, in which “an ‘equipollence,’ or seemingly equal persuasiveness of all claims considered” (32). Lom explains that Skeptics used philosophy to evaluate the truth claims of a given proposition, but continually found a contradictory claim This attitude proves destructive for doubt’s creative capacity. Hartshorne specifically addresses this skeptical attitude, taking into consideration its destructive capacity: [D]oubt is also a sign of defensiveness, expressing our distrust of genuine passion. Men also doubt in order that they may relieve the finality of utter commitment…where doubt refuses the discipline of reason and fails to honor the demand for 95 truth, which give it its integrity and power, it is transmuted into its opposite: dogma. (96-97) transcendent, convinced that ultimate truth is inevitably beyond our grasp. Or, as Hartshorne so deftly asserts, doubt may be the means by which we choose to reject truth, ‘in order that we may relieve the finality of utter commitment.’ Given these parameters, how might encountering doubt in a creative, as opposed to crippling, manner psychologically affect religious persons? In turning to psychological studies of religious doubt, the implications of experiencing doubt in one of these two general capacities become manifest. Hartshorne is decrying doubt when it is used as an excuse to not take a stand. This is precisely the base upon which the ataraxia derived from epochē in Greek Skepticism rests. In Hartshorne’s view, when doubt or uncertainty is taken as ‘ultimate,’ then any genuine search for truth is thwarted. Doubt becomes unquestionable and hence dogmatic. Tillich specifically refers to this stance as ‘skeptical doubt.’ He explains, “The skeptical doubt is an attitude toward all the beliefs of man, from sense experiences to religious creeds….It is an attitude of actually rejecting any certainty” (22). Baird’s fourth focus contends that doubt helps us evade the quest for certainty and in so doing avoid the stifling of creativity that comes with the ‘certainty’ of religious dogma. Yet when doubt itself cannot be questioned, it transforms into its own dogma; in this sense, doubt loses its creative capacity within religion because it becomes a stagnant agnosticism. Psychologist Neal Krause examined doubt in older, religious Americans and his research illustrates the varying psychological effects caused by either creative or crippling doubt. Krause’s 2006 study, “Religious Doubt and Psychological Well-Being: A Longitudinal Investigation,” surveyed Americans “who were Black or White, noninstitutionalized, English speaking, and at least 66 years of age” (291). Additionally, all those surveyed were self-professed members of the Christian tradition. The study sought to “see if religious doubt is associated with change in three measures of psychological wellbeing over time: Life-satisfaction, selfesteem, and optimism” (287). Additionally, Krause investigated whether the educational attainment of older Americans influenced the manner in which they experienced doubt. Across the three spectra of life-satisfaction, selfesteem, and optimism, Krause found that doubt about one’s religion had a deleterious psychological effect (298). However, Krause found that the deleterious effects of doubt in these three areas were significantly mediated given There appear to be two general potentialities of doubt within the lives of religious persons. On one hand, doubt is the means by which we exercise a critical attitude towards our religious ideas, beliefs, and capacities. In this sense, doubt can serve a creative function; it compels us to reanalyze, reconfigure, and reconstruct the means by which we faithfully engage our ultimate concern. On the other hand, doubt can have a crippling capacity. When doubt is not dealt with critically, we may find ourselves unable to feel and relate to the 96 one’s degree of educational attainment. That is, doubt had a larger psychological impact on the life satisfaction, selfesteem, and optimism of older Americans who had fewer years of education. Doubt produced less severe psychological effects in Americans with more years of formal education (298). and additionally feeling that doubt is wrong and unforgivable— are why doubt diminishes more severely the lifesatisfaction, self-esteem, and optimism of older Americans with less educational attainment. It is worth mentioning that that these psychological survey data reflect the sentiments of a certain group of people operating within a specific time, place, and religious tradition. It would be implausible to suggest that Krause’s findings concerning the relationship between doubt’s psychological effects and educational attainment could be extrapolated to comment on religious persons in differing historical, social, and religious contexts. That being said, the data provided by this study give grounding to the general dichotomy between creative and crippling doubt detailed earlier. With respect to the older Americans with higher degrees of educational attainment in Krause’s study, doubt engenders a creative response. Critical thinking skills were used to create new understandings and outlooks which would mitigate doubt’s effects on psychological well-being. On the other hand, those who were not able to confront their doubt critically were forced to repress or deny it. In this way, doubt has a paralyzing effect. It becomes non-resolvable, constantly lurking and not offering any opportunities for escape. Responding creatively to doubt mitigates its psychological effects; it is when doubt is dogmatic (ever present and nonresolvable) that the greatest psychological stress is caused. Krause theorizes that, “Given the lifelong influence of schooling and occupational experiences, people with higher levels of educational attainment are more likely to apply their skills in wrestling with, and resolving, religious doubt” (290). This theory suggests that the greater intellectual resources (specifically critical thinking skills) afforded to individuals with higher education give them greater capacities to reason with and confront the challenges presented by doubt. Conversely, Krause posits that, In contrast to those with a good education, older people with less schooling are likely to lack the skills needed to grapple with and resolve doubt. As a result, the options open to them are more limited and less attractive. If doubt cannot be resolved, then one option is to ignore, dismiss, repress, or deny it. (290) Data gathered from the survey also revealed that older adults with less education “are more likely to feel that having doubts about religion is wrong…and they are less likely to forgive themselves when they encounter doubt about their faith” (298-299). Krause’s longitudinal survey data suggest that these facets—feeling that one can only deal with doubt via repression or denial, 97 Doubt and Secular Society were ‘Fairly certain’ and 4% were ‘Not too certain/Not at all certain/Unsure how certain.’ These data suggest that theological doubt is relatively uncommon amongst Americans, as roughly 88% of people express high degrees of certainty concerning God’s existence.3 What might be the sociological conditions that ground doubt in a ‘modern’ secular society like the one in which the individuals in Krause’s study find themselves? In the following pages I turn the discussion away from the role of doubt’s potentially creative and/or incapacitating potential and its subsequent psychological effects. Rather I seek to illustrate the manner in which secular society offers grounding for doubt. I further seek to show the manner in which a key element of contemporary society, modern science, institutionalizes doubt within its internal functioning. However, religious studies professor Jack Miles, in conducting research for his Pulitzer Prize winning book God: A Biography, met many Americans who did not fit into this mold of widespread certainty. While talking to Americans about God he continually came across a defiant attitude which questioned whether doubt and religion were incompatible: “If I may doubt the practice of medicine from the operating table, if I may doubt the political system from the voting booth, if I may doubt the institution of marriage from the conjugal bed, why may I not doubt religion from the pew?” (2). Miles notes that this attitude of ‘doubting religion from the pew’ was most often manifest in “newcomers” to the expression of doubt as well as “newcomers” to the pew. Generally speaking, we might characterize these individuals as being in a liminal or intermediary state: they may not have been ‘religious persons’ before, and still may not ‘believe’ in the truth claims of a religious tradition, yet they nonetheless decide to insert themselves in a religious community. How might In its 2008 ‘U.S. Religious Landscape Survey,’ the Pew Forum on Religious and Public Life sought to gain a better understanding of American religiousness. Over 35,000 American adults were surveyed in the study, which sought to measure various facets of their religious lives including ‘Frequency of Prayer,’ ‘Importance of Religion’ and ‘Frequency of Attendance.’ One section in particular measured the degree of certainty concerning ‘Belief in God or Universal Spirit by Religious Tradition.’ The survey included Americans from a variety of religious backgrounds as well as people ‘Unaffiliated’ with a religious tradition. Those surveyed were asked to respond to the following series of questions: “Do you believe in God or a universal spirit? [IF YES, ASK:] How certain are you about this belief? Are you absolutely certain, fairly certain, not too certain, or not at all certain?” Overall, with respect to ‘Total Population’s Belief in God’ the survey found that 71% of Americans were ‘Absolutely certain,’ 17% 3 All information regarding the Pew Forum’s findings, including survey techniques and statistical analysis can be found at http://www.pewforum.org/. Data and statistical analysis specifically concerning ‘Belief in God’ can be found at http://www.pewforum.org/Topics/Beliefs-andPractices/Belief-in-God/ 98 one understand the phenomenon of doubters nonetheless attending religious services? range of options and alternatives concerning religion are apparent. Doubt, in this instance, engenders an attitude whereby individuals engage in an odyssey of sorts. Individuals may find themselves unsure as to which option (religious or otherwise) will provide a sense of meaning or fulfillment. In A Secular Age Charles Taylor highlights the lived experience of ‘secularity,’ and this conceptualization helps us further ground the phenomenon of doubt in contemporary society. In detailing the secular, Taylor notes that he wants specifically to “focus attention on the different kinds of lived experience involved in understanding [one’s] life in one way or the other, on what it’s like to live as a believer or an unbeliever” (5). He offers a schema whereby we understand our lives in terms of ‘fullness,’ ‘exile,’ and a ‘stabilized middle condition’ between the two. (5-6). He notes that religious and non-religious persons have different means of attaining this state of ‘fullness.’ For the former, it is often found ‘outside’ of the self, specifically in relation to an external religious tradition and/or religious community. For the latter, “the predicament is quite different. The power to reach fullness is within” (8). That is, this sense of ‘fullness’ can be achieved through our own natural capacities and social constructs; one is not dependent on a higher, transcendental force. Miles suggests that we focus on endemic American individualism. He argues that religion has been a counterforce to American individualism, but “religion has not been the only corrective available. Innumerable secular forms of association have also tried to deliver the psychological and moral counterbalance that American individualism requires” (2). Miles contends that the phenomenon of the ‘doubter in the pew’ reflects that “Americans have not so much recovered their faith in religion as lost their faith in the alternatives” (3). As such, these people find themselves in a sort of intermediary state—they are not convinced of the validity of religion nor do they find a sense of fullness in secular alternatives. Miles concludes: What appeals to them in the first instance may be the social and esthetic refuge provided by religion, but they arrive with open minds regarding belief. This openness is the defiance I noticed in my book-tour conversations. It is the defiance of the doubter in the pew. (3) While Miles’ evidence is largely anecdotal—we don’t have statistics about the prevalence of ‘doubters in the pew’(I would imagine that the phenomenon is exceedingly rare)—it nonetheless encapsulates a situation indicative of a larger sociological trend. While most Americans may never find themselves as a ‘doubter in the pew,’ they nonetheless live in a time and place in which the Thus, we see the ‘doubter in the pew’ caught between two or more competing alternatives in his or her search for fullness. And it is this idea of competing alternatives that, according to Taylor, truly characterizes living in a 99 secular age. In characterizing the secular, Taylor chooses not to focus on institutional separation between church and state (what he refers to as ‘secularity 1’) or on declining belief in God/church attendance (secularity 2) (3). According to Taylor these two notions focus on institutional and quantifiable aspects of secularism, and do not focus primarily on lived experience as it relates to the search for ‘fullness.’ As such he proposes ‘secularity 3,’ “which came to be along with the possibility of exclusive humanism, which thus for the first time widened the range of possible options, ending the era of ‘naïve’ religious faith” (19). ‘Naïve religious faith’ in its most extreme context implies a religious atmosphere in which it is literally impossible to conceive of alternatives to the dominant religious tradition. Taylor argues that this state effectively characterized much of Medieval Europe. gives rise to an ‘Index of doubt.’ This index means that religious persons live in a condition where we cannot help but be aware that there are a number of different construals, views which intelligent, reasonably undeluded people, of good will, can and do disagree on. We cannot help looking over our shoulder from time to time, looking sideways, living our faith also in a condition of doubt and uncertainty. (Taylor 11) The secular condition is optimized by an ever-present doubt stemming from the apparent validity of an array of competing options for fullness, both religious and secular. The possibility of ‘naïve’ certainty is all but usurped. As such, the Pew Forum’s findings concerning the certainty or near certainty of Americans’ belief in God must be understood in a context of alternatives: “No one today can but be conscious that living according to the precepts of a determined faith is one choice among other possibilities” (Giddens 181). While Americans may profess to be certain, they are almost certainly aware that their notions necessarily compete with other options, of which disbelief is a prime contender. Giddens further explains that “doubt filters into most aspects of day-to-day life, as least as background phenomenon. So far as lay actors are concerned, its most important consequence is the requirement to steer between the conflicting claims of rival types of abstract system” (181). The prevalence of so many alternatives— be they religious or secular ‘abstract systems’— is key in helping to fully understand the Less severe gradations of this naiveté still produced a near impossibility of alternatives. That is, although there may have been a milieu of various traditions, “these alternatives were scarcely substitutes for the overarching authoritative reach of the dominant religious system” (Giddens 194). However, the secular age is characterized by competition between feasible alternatives. That is, no one is able to live ‘naively’ as if their religious tradition were the only conceivably viable option. Additionally, disbelief has come to be a widely accepted option. Accordingly, the lived experience of secularity consists of having to choose between options (whether they be ‘religious’ or ‘exclusively humanist’) in one’s quest for ‘fullness.’ Secularity 3 100 sociological situation from which doubt arises in a secular, modern state. immutable truths. This notion of ‘securely founded knowledge’ grounds Baconian science. Educational historian Julie A. Reuben illustrates that until the 1870’s Baconian science was the dominant paradigm in American universities. Under this system, "science was based on careful, unbiased observations of nature” and the subsequent classification of these observations into categories (Rueben 38). Reuben notes that the collection and classification of this data served to uncover natural law. Then, once "a true law was identified, it would become part of an unchanging body of knowledge....Scientists assumed that a finite number of natural laws would eventually account for all phenomena" (39). Yet the predominance of immutable bodies of knowledge would be short lived, specifically undercut by the implications of Darwinian evolution. Besides the institutionalization of ‘alternatives’ within modern society, doubt also finds grounding within the realm of modern science. In one sense, modern science can be construed as an ‘alternative’ interpretation of reality in contrast with the worldview encapsulated by various religious traditions. Perhaps this tension is most acutely seen in the often polemical conflict between biblical literalists and scientists concerning Intelligent Design and Darwinian Evolution. The competition between these two notions could act as a wellspring of doubt for those who are unsure as to which is more valid; curiously enough, one might argue the opposite, seeing as the polemical nature of this debate often causes those on either side to become more ardently attached to their already chosen position. Yet regardless of the ability of hot-button scientific issues such as these to inspire doubt, there is another manner in which modern science helps foster a doubting atmosphere. Through a historical analysis of the development of modern science, we can see the manner in which doubt has become an intrinsic part of this institution. Reuben argues that in demonstrating the evolution of natural entities over time via natural selection, Darwin helped usher in a new era of 'Progressive' science: "According to this view, science could not be considered simply the discovery of regularity in nature because nature was not necessarily regular" (Rueben 45). Thus, many scientists rejected the system whereby immutable natural objects were organized into categories of immutable natural law, and rather embraced a process which hinged on the verification/falsification of hypothesis and an open attitude of inquiry (Rueben 48). While some specific facets of progressive science were later dropped, new ‘objectivist’ forms of science still held on to this attitude of open inquiry In the time of the Enlightenment, “The original progenitors of modern science and philosophy believed themselves to be preparing the way for securely founded knowledge of the social and natural worlds” (Giddens 21). This idea of ‘securely founded knowledge’ essentially held that through science and philosophy, the natural world could be rendered intelligible in terms of 101 (Rueben 193). Indeed, the attitude of open inquiry about the natural world, hinging on notions of verification and falsification, is an enduring hallmark of science, especially as it is practiced today: “Science depends, not on the inductive accumulation of proofs, but on the methodological principle of doubt. No matter how cherished…a given scientific tenet might be, it is open to revision—or might have to be discarded altogether” (Giddens 21). As such, doubt is an intrinsic facet of the scientific process as the certainty of any proposition is never guaranteed. religiously. For in both camps, doubt has creative potential. Doubting the Ultimate The examination of doubt up until this point has been articulated through a range of lenses. Greek philosophers, St. Augustine, Zen monks, 20th century liberal Protestant theologians, contemporary psychologists, and theorists of modernity/secularism have all contributed perspectives by which we may come to further understand the complicated intricacies of doubt in the lives of religious persons. In examining these perspectives, I have largely focused on a certain type of doubt—that is, doubt directed toward finite entities such as the self and the self’s ability to stand in relation to the ultimate. The first criterion of ‘creative’ doubt mentioned earlier stipulated ‘1) The ultimate is not the object of doubt, but rather our relation to the ultimate.’ That being said, individuals throughout history have doubted the ultimate, and it is to the implications of this doubt that I now turn. I do not intend to show that the prevalence of modern science necessarily acts as a wellspring of doubt for religious persons, although this may be the case in some instances. Rather, the intrinsic function of doubt in modern science shows a heavy parallel between science and the viewpoints espoused earlier by theologians such as Hartshorne and Tillich. Certainly not all religious persons would accept these theologians’ understanding of doubt; yet each nonetheless shows that doubt can have significant creative potential in the lives of many religious individuals. In the same way, scientific creativity hinges on the notion that any proposition is subject to critical analysis. It is through the process of doubting by which theories are refined or entirely new ones are created. As mentioned, doubt may also play a stifling role in religious life. Yet in the scientific realm, stagnation primarily occurs when people have quit doubting. As such, we can see how doubt plays a prominent role in the activities of persons acting both secularly or Uncertainty as to whether or not there is a meaningful ultimate towards which humans may stand in accord is perhaps the most profound focus of doubt. As Hartshorne hauntingly relates, “Many a sincere Christian has knelt to pray, only to watch his prayer fall limp to earth, destroyed by the lurking suspicion that it is but the weak voice of hope sounding hollowly in the immense emptiness of nature” (92). This ‘lurking suspicion’ is not limited to the Christian tradition alone; it is a suspicion that men and women from any number of contexts 102 have had to contend with in questioning whether or not the universe is empty of an ultimate meaningfulness to which they can relate. What responses have men and women employed with respect to the possibility of such emptiness? symbols, practices, etc.), doubt may engender either a creative or an inhibiting response. This possibility of a dual response is at play concerning questions of ‘ultimate doubt’ as well, although this twofold response is more adequately rendered in terms of ‘trust’ and ‘distrust.’ Turning to H. Richard Niebuhr we can more clearly see the wellspring from which ‘ultimate doubt’ issues and how we might characterize responses to such doubt in terms of ‘trust’ and ‘distrust.’ Some people have indeed found ultimate meaning in emptiness. Nagarjuna, an early Indian Buddhist philosopher articulated how this might be the case, via his explanation of śūnyatā and svabhāva . The Sanskrit word śūnyatā , generally defined as ‘emptiness,’ “derives from the recognition…that implicit in thinking and speaking resides a tendency to create an illusion (of self-sufficient realities) that is itself the cause of that suffering” (Streng, 8856). The notion that there are completely autonomous, self-sufficient entities which possess “own-being” (svabhāva) is antithetical to śūnyatā. We construct conventional truths, creating discriminations between one object and another. To these objects we attribute svabhāva, yet fail to recognize that everything is made of constituent parts. Ultimate truth maintains that “all things are empty of own-being, or are dependently arisen” (Mitchell, 144). Thus, for Nagarjuna and the many people who have responded faithfully to his thought, śūnyatā, or emptiness, is ultimate truth and meaning. H. Richard Niebuhr posits that we are radically contingent beings, and the manner in which we are ‘contingent’ provides the foundation from which ‘ultimate doubt’ proceeds. In The Responsible Self, Niebuhr maintains that: The action by which I am, is not one by which I was thrown into existence at some past time to maintain myself thereafter by my own power….I live but I do not have the power to live. And further, I may die at any moment but I am powerless to die. It was not in my power, nor in my parents’ power, to elect my self into existence. Though they willed a child or consented to it they did not will me.” (114) We did not will our particular selves into being, nor do we know what happens to us after we die: “We can choose among many alternatives; but the power to choose self-existence or self-extinction is not ours” (115). In this sense, we are contingent upon the ‘radical action’ which prompted our existence: Niebuhr thus contends that as embodied selves, we are here (and sustained in life, and possibly after death) by some radically To be sure, not all have found meaning in emptiness. For many, the deepest expressions of doubt stem from uncertainty as to whether or not the universe is indeed empty of all meaning. With respect to the finite-oriented doubt mentioned earlier (that is, doubt directed towards ourselves and/or our religious 103 other force. We know that we are here, but we do not know what action or force rendered our existence. Niebuhr explains, “The radical action by which I am and by which I am present with this body, this mind, this emotional equipment, this religion, is not identifiable with any of the finite actions that constitute the particular elements in physical, mental, personal existence” (112). The constraints of our ‘physical,’ ‘mental’ and ‘personal’ existence do not let us know what force engendered our existence. We do not know if this force is ultimately meaningful or empty. Hence, Niebuhr maintains that uncertainty towards the ultimate is a fundamental facet of our existence. they may relieve the finality of utter commitment” (96-97). This type of doubt exemplifies an attitude of distrust. Doubt is taken as an excuse to abandon the search for truth; through doubting whether or not there is a meaningful ‘ultimate,’ the ‘finality of utter commitment’ is avoided. This sentiment is paralleled in the Buddhist notion of Vickicchā. Vickicchā is a form of doubt hinging on “‘the not wishing to understand or think.’ It has doubting as a characteristic, as nature wavering, as manifest undecision or not accepting fully, as foundation, the paying of unwise attention to doubt” (Nyanatiloka, 164). Vickicchā essentially reflects the Skeptical doubt detailed by Sextus Empiricus. When our uncertainty is directed towards the ultimate itself, ‘skeptical doubt,’ (‘Vickicchā’) is the means by which we reject the search for ultimate truth. Yet just because we cannot ascertain certainty nor fully understand the ‘radical action’ by which we are does not mean we cannot relate to such action nor proceed to understand it. Niebuhr explains that ‘faith’ is the means by which we engage in such relation: “Our primordial interpretation of the radical action by which we are is made in faith as trust or distrust. Between these two there seems to be no middle term. The inscrutable power by which we are is either for us or against us” (119, emphasis added). In so far as this power is inscrutable, we lack certainty. Thus, in some sense we are forced to doubt, or profess an attitude of uncertainty, towards this ultimate, radically other power. Conversely, Paul Tillich illustrates the manner in which doubt about the ultimate may still reflect an attitude of ‘trust.’ He writes: An act of faith is an act of a finite being who is grasped by and turned to the infinite….faith is uncertain in so far as the infinite to which it is related is received by a finite being. This element of uncertainty in faith cannot be removed, it must be accepted. And the element of faith which accepts this is courage. (18) Given the finite confines of the self, certainty with respect to the ultimate is beyond our grasp. Tillich contends that although we may lack certainty, this does not mean we cannot seek to engage the ultimate. We may doubt—be That being said, how might doubt be faithfully expressed as either ‘trust’ or ‘distrust’ of this ‘inscrutable power’? I have previously quoted Hartshorne as saying, “Men also doubt in order that 104 uncertain— as to whether or not there is an ultimate significance to which we can meaningfully relate. Choosing to respond ‘trustfully,’ given the fact that we doubt, is an expression of courage. We do not know if we will find ultimate meaning or only emptiness. This is doubt. Yet Tillich contends that in choosing to proceed with this element of uncertainty, we indeed act courageously. both Hartshorne and Tillich contend, doubt is a fundamental facet of faith in the ultimate. To expect certainty, to be free from doubt, is to ignore the conditions of our present state: in Tillich’s terms, we are finite entities trying to stand in relation to the infinite; in Niebuhr’s rendering, we are beings ‘contingent’ on a radically other force about which we can only be uncertain. But because we doubt does not mean we cannot seek to understand. Doubt thus plays an integral role in relation to ultimate truth. It may be the means by which we reject the search for truth and express an attitude of ‘distrust’ towards the ultimate; at the same time, doubt necessitates that we act courageously should we decide to pursue an engaged relationship with ultimate truth. In this latter sense, doubt is a fundamental facet of ‘trust’ or faith in the ultimate. We may then understand doubt having two sets of dual natures, depending on its focus. Concerning the finite orientations of doubt, we see both creative and crippling potential; in doubt’s orientation toward the ‘ultimate’ we see the possibility of ‘trust’ and ‘distrust.’ Conclusion: A Personal Reflection I would like to conclude this journey through uncertainty with…a commencement. That is, I wish to share some words from the commencement baccalaureate sermon delivered by M. Holmes Hartshorne on June, 1st 1975. In the Colgate Chapel, filled with young men and women like myself about to graduate, Hartshorne remarked: It takes courage to doubt—to face unflinchingly the frightening questions posed by a world in dissolution or forced on you by the reluctant awareness that your life is pitifully superficial and your ultimate concerns little else than your own fears and frustrations. If your graduation is in fact a commencement, this will in good measure be because Colgate has helped you to think critically, radically, in spite of great inner resistance. Such radical doubt is no mere technique: it is the fruit of an attitude, a communal attitude of men and women who somehow have Doubt’s stifling capacity is intrinsically linked to this attitude of ‘distrust.’ From an attitude of ‘distrust’ we do not seek to find out if ultimate truth exists in the first place, much less try to meaningfully engage with it. The Skepticism of Sextus Empiricus, the Buddhist notion of Vickicchā—both represent an attitude of distrust because doubt is taken to be ultimately meaningful and non-questionable. For individuals living life religiously, seeking ultimate truth, such doubt may prove incapacitating. On the other hand, as 105 together found the courage to risk peace of mind for the sake of truth and conscience. (2-3) hours in the library, poring over texts and reaching for ideas in what feels like a boundless abyss of knowledge I cannot even being to truly understand has made me perpetually question my ability to put forth a meaningful body of work. More often than I would like to admit, finishing this thesis has been my ‘ultimate concern.’ But it is of course not ultimate, and all of the anxiety I have felt in writing it reflects, as Hartshorne says, that my ultimate concerns are ‘little else than my own fears and frustrations.’ And for as much time as I spent ‘ultimately concerning’ myself with putting these ideas down on paper, I am sure that I will not be able to recall most of them in a short time from now. Be that as it may, I will always know what it is to doubt. I know the thrill of doubt creating previously unimagined thoughts and insights. I also know the despair of giving up in the face of uncertainty. In both of these respects I am by no means unique. I merely have had the privilege to wrestle with thoughts on doubt as articulated by some truly profound people. As I continued to write about the doubt of men and women, it became increasingly apparent to me that I was indeed living my thesis. I have felt profoundly uncertain as to whether or not the ideas contained within this work are accurate reflections. My doubt towards what I have written has indeed engendered creative response: In some cases I simply scrapped ideas about which I felt uncertain and sought more refined ways of articulating novel thoughts. I hope to have had some success in this endeavor. More often than not, however, I have been unable to wrestle with my doubt. There are ideas I’ve put forth in this paper about which I feel deeply uncertain. Yet instead of confronting my doubt about them, I have let them lie as imperfectly articulated as they are. In this sense my doubt has crippled my search for truth. In pursuing this project, my self doubt has been profound. Hours upon Clark, Mary T. Augustine. Georgetown University Press: Washington, D.C., 1994. Bibliography Dawkins, Richard. The God Delusion. Mariner Books: New York, 2008. Augustine. The Confessions. Trans. Henry Chadwick. Oxford University Press: Oxford, 1991. Denbeaux, Fred. The Art of Christian Doubt. Association Press: New York, 1960 Baird, Robert M. “The Creative Role of doubt in Religion.” Journal of Religion and Health. 19.3 (1980): 172-179. Giddens, Anthony. Modernity and Self Identity: Self and Society in the Late Modern Age. Stanford University Press: Stanford, 1991. Carter, Jonh Ross, ed. Of Human Bondage and Divine Grace. Open Court: La Salle, Illinois, 1992. 106 Hartshorne, M. Holmes. The Faith to Doubt: A Protestant Response to Criticisms of Religion. Prentice Hall: Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1963. Miles, Jack. “Faith Is an Option: Religion Makes a Comeback (Belief to Follow).” New York Times Magazine. 7 December 1997. http://www.nytimes.com/1997/12/07/ma gazine/faith-is-an-option-religionmakes-a-comeback-belief-tofollow.html?scp=49&sq="Jack%20Miles" &st=cse --Baccalaureate Sermon. Jun 1, 1975 Colgate University. Hecht, Jennifer Michael. Doubt: A History. HarperSanFrancisco: San Francisco, 2003. Mitchell, Donald W. Buddhism: Introducing the Buddhist Experience. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008. Helfaer, Philip M. The Psychology of Religious Doubt. Beacon Press: Boston, 1972. Niebuhr, H. Richard. The Responsible Self: An Essay in Christian Moral Philosophy. Westminister John Knox Press: Louisville, Kentucky, 1999. Hempton, David. Evangelical Disenchantment: 9 Portraits of Faith and Doubt. Yale University Press: New Haven, 2008. -- Radical Monotheism and Western Culture. Harper & Brothers Publishers: New York, 1960. Jones, Lindsay, ed. Encyclopedia of Religion Detroit: Macmillan Reference USA, 2005. Nyananatiloka. Buddhist Dictionary: Manual of Buddhist Terms and Doctrines. Frewin & Co., LTD.: Colombo, 1950. --MacGregor, Geddes. “Doubt and Belief” p. 2423-2429. --Streng, Frederick J. “Śūnyam and Śūnyatā”p.8855-8860. Pollack, Victor L. “Science Education: I: The Spirit of Science.” Journal of Science Education and Technology. 2.4 (1993): 513-518. Krause, Neal and Keith M. Wulff. “Religious Doubt and Health: Exploring the Potential Dark Side or Religion.” Sociology of Religion 65.1 (2004): 35-56. Reuben, Julie A. The Making of the Modern University. The University of Chicago Press: Chicago, 1996. Krause, Neal. “Religious Doubt and Psychological Well-Being: A Longitudinal Investigation.” Review of Religious Research 47.3 (2006): 287-302. Rescher, Nicholas. “The Legitimacy of Doubt.” The Review of Metaphysics. 13.2(1959): 226-234. Lom, Petr. The Limits of Doubt: The Moral and Political Implications of Skepticism. State University. State University of New York Press: Albany, 2001. Smith, W. Cantwell. “Religious Atheism? Early Buddhist and Recent American.” The Australian Bulletin of Comparative Religion 107 Shibayama, Zenkei. Zen Comments on the Mumonkan. Trans. Sumiko Kudo. Harper & Row: New York, 1974. Shore, Jeff. Being Without Self: Zen for the Modern World. Asoka Publishing: Rotterdam, 2008. Schellenberg, J.L. The Wisdom to Doubt: A Justification of Religious Skepticism. Cornell University Press: Ithaca, 2007. Sinnot-Armstrong, Walter, ed. Phyronnian Skepticism. Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2004. Swain, Charles W. “Doubt in Defense of Faith.” Journal of the American Academy of Religion. 36.2 (1968): 109-117. Tillich, Paul. Dynamics of Faith. Perennial Classics: New York, 2001. Webb, Mark O. “Religious Experience as Doubt Resolution.” International Journal for Philosophy of Religion 18.5 (1985): 8186. 108 Occupational Diversity of Immigrants in the United States Colleen Tubridy, Class of 2010 This paper employs IPUMS United States Census data to study the occupational distribution of immigrants between 1850 and 2000. Examining occupational diversity is crucial to understanding how immigrants adjust to a host economy and affect growth. I use occupations as a way of measuring assimilation. I analyze whether or not the spread of immigrants across occupations looks like the spread of natives over time. To do this, I create a unique measure of diversity based on the fractionalization index. I construct occupational diversity indices for each immigrant group and decade. Results from a case study examination indicate that relative occupational diversity has increased over time as immigrants have a greater ability to enter a wide array of occupations. I use empirical models to show that a positive relationship exists between relative occupational diversity and the immigrant to native ratio. attainment of immigrants is an inherent part of their socioeconomic adjustment. Initially, immigrants may have an occupational disadvantage because they lack knowledge about how to find employment, or their pre-migration skills may not be fully transferable. But with a longer stay in the U.S. and more investment in U.S. specific skills, their socioeconomic status can be expected to improve and resemble more closely that of natives (Toussaint-Comeau 2004). Researchers have proposed several theories to explain why immigrants select and change jobs. These provide insight into the extent to which immigrants may or may not assimilate in their occupational profiles. These theories include human capital accumulation, the host country’s immigration policy regarding the type of skills required for entry, and the importance of ethnic concentration in shaping the occupational distribution of immigrants, to name a few. Introduction Information on the occupational distribution of immigrants and how it changes over time in a host economy is central to understanding how immigrants affect economic growth and how they adjust to a host country both in economic and social terms (Green 1999). The assimilation process, or the convergence between immigrants and natives, is thus a very important phenomenon to study. This is especially true when looked at through the lens of the United States, the “melting pot” of our world. Much of the prior research that has been done to examine immigrants in the labor market has considered wages or unemployment to make inferences about the assimilation of immigrants, while very few have looked at occupations. Occupation, however, is just as important a measure of the skill set of an individual that is used to convey the socioeconomic status of the worker. The occupational 109 Most people, when studying assimilation, ask whether immigrants are taking jobs more similar to natives over time or if they are catching up to the performance of natives in regards to skills or wages. Unlike this assimilation literature focusing on the catch-up question, I am asking a different question from another angle. I am looking at whether the spread, or distribution, of immigrants across occupations looks more like the spread of natives across time. My emphasis is on whether or not immigrants have been stuck in a low number of occupations over time or if they have been able to break free from certain classifications. Rather than studying if immigrants are in “better” occupations, I seek to find if they are in a variety of occupations to make sure they have not been pigeon-holed in particular categories. To explore this idea, I employ the concept of occupational diversity. Occupational diversity can be defined as the probability that two people, drawn at random, are of different occupations. The question of occupational diversity is thus extremely important, especially when viewed as one type of assimilation. A focus on occupational distribution contributes to the importance of understanding the immigrant experience upon arrival to the U.S. Here, I examine how immigrants assimilate, at least occupationally, as their group’s residency in the U.S. increases. I use a blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis to get to the root of this question. Through a mini-case study approach, I am able to delve into the immigration history and experience of several of the largest foreign-born populations in an attempt to explain changes in occupational diversity. To do this, I compare natives, or U.S. born, to those who are foreignborn. I consider a variety of immigrant groups, including Mexicans, Irish, Germans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Chinese, Filipinos, and Indians. I look at trends in occupational diversity over time, from 1850 to 2000, for each group. I analyze how they are different from each other and from natives. Thus, I attempt to take a new approach to the assimilation question. I seek to find if occupational diversity has increased over time and if so, why that has been the case. The paper is organized as follows. The next section describes the motivation behind the paper and the literature related to the topic. Section 3 describes the data, while section 4 explains the measurement index used. Section 5 presents the results and interpretation of the mini-case studies. Section 6 introduces the empirical model and section 7 provides the regression results and analysis. Section 8 concludes the study. Motivation In the past, there have been several studies done about occupational assimilation and mobility of immigrants. Amuedo-Dorantes and De La Rica (2006) analyze the employment and occupational assimilation of recent immigrant waves to the Spanish labor market as their residencies lengthen and find evidence that occupational assimilation varies by gender, origin, and educational attainment. They examine immigrants’ employment assimilation as captured by changes in the employment 110 probability differential between similar immigrants and natives as immigrants’ stay in Spain lengthens. Their omitted variable, or comparison group, is natives. They rank occupations on the basis of their average earnings. 40% of recent immigrants were concentrated in the 5 worst paid occupations compared to 30% of non-recent immigrants and 12% of natives. The fact that non-recent immigrants are better off occupationwise than their recent counterparts suggests upward occupational mobility as migrants’ residencies lengthen. In terms of educational attainment, the assimilation of less educated immigrants seems to take place at a slower pace. Thus, assimilation may vary according to human capital. They found that there were significant differences in the occupational attainment and mobility of immigrants by origin. She cites the Cohort Quality Model (Borjas 1995) which suggests that there are differences between groups, or cohorts, of immigrants who enter the U.S. in particular time periods. A higher skill set, or a more transferable one, changes the occupational path for each cohort in different times. Previous research has also shown the importance of ethnic concentration in shaping the occupational distribution of immigrants. Patel and Vella (2007) study the occupational allocation of immigrants. They examine the relationship between the occupational choice of recently arrived immigrants with those of established immigrants of the same country. They use a simple model of the search behavior of immigrants. They find evidence of a network system in the immigrant labor market. Evidence shows that new arrivals are locating in the same occupations as their established countrymen. Thus, they highlight the importance of immigrant networks in developing occupation niches, or channeling immigrants of certain ethnic backgrounds into specific occupations. Occupational choice of immigrants is not based purely on comparative skill advantages. Toussaint-Comeau (2004) investigates whether Hispanic immigrants assimilate in occupational status with natives and the factors that determine occupational status. She models occupational status and convergence of Hispanics relative to U.S. born non-Hispanics as a function of human capital and demographic exogenous variables, U.S. experience (assimilation effects) and periods of migration (cohort effects). Her results show that the length of time spent in the U.S. narrows the occupational gap and that the level of human capital affects the rate of occupational mobility and determines whether convergence occurs in occupational status. Immigrants who arrived to the U.S. in different periods may have different propensities to assimilate due to human capital levels. Data I was able to draw all of my data from the IPUMS-USA website. IPUMSUSA (Integrated Public Use Microdata Series) is dedicated to collecting and distributing United States census data. Using variables from this data base, I was able to create a new dataset that is unique to my purposes. I gathered the following variables for each decade 111 between 1850 and 2000 to examine the full spectrum during which the bulk of migration to the U.S. occurred. However, there is no census data for the decade 1890. My variable, Age, limits the data to those who are between 16 and 65, or those who are of age to be considered in the labor force. In addition, my variable for Sex limits the data to males because occupational patterns of females are likely to be very different and would thus skew my results. The variable Perwt (person weight) indicates how many people in the U.S. population are represented by a given person in the IPUMS sample. The variable GQ (group quarter) classifies households under the 1970 definition and additional households under the 1990 definition. The variable Laborforce limits the data to those who are in the labor force. other barriers in regards to occupational options. On the other hand, perhaps immigrants from countries with colonial status may have an easier time entering into a wide array of occupations. I compute the occupational diversity of employed non-agricultural civilian workers for each ethnic group. I use the variable OCC1950, which applies the 1950 Census Bureau occupational classification system to occupational data, in order to increase the comparability of occupations over time. This variable reports the primary occupation of census participants. Occupations are classified by job title within the following categories: Professional and Technical; Managers, Officials, and Proprietors; Clerical and Kindred; Sales workers; Craftsmen; Operatives; Service Workers; Laborers. In order to provide a representation of how these occupations are coded, I included a list of all of the job titles within three of these categories in Appendix A. For example, it can be seen that two people working in an accounting office, one as an accountant and one as a secretary, would be coded differently. In this way, the variable provides data that shows how occupational diversity is changing in regards to job title and hierarchy, rather than solely industry. I also include the variable BPL (birthplace) for the following countries: Mexico, Ireland, Germany, Puerto Rico, Cuba, China, Philippines, India, and the U.S. states. I chose these 8 countries in order to perform a more in-depth analysis of each group’s experience. I wanted to examine a wide range of immigrant groups that were representative of different regions and sizes, whose migration waves started at different points and have spanned across the majority of the 150 year period that I am looking at. In addition, I was interested to see if certain immigrant groups had different levels of occupational diversity due to factors such as race, language, or having been a colony of the United States. Non-white immigrants or those from a country where English is not the first language spoken might face discrimination or Measurement Index In order to accomplish my task, I needed to create a unique measure of diversity. To do this, I based my model on the fractionalization index. Most studies about the impact of ethnic diversity on economic growth use a 112 measure of ethnic diversity called the ELF (Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization), which is the probability that two people drawn at random are of different ethnic groups. The fractionalization index’s theoretical maximum is reached (at the value of 1) when each person belongs to a different group. Thus, values represent a range of complete homogeneity (an index of 0) to complete heterogeneity (an index of 1) (Alesina et al 2003). I use the same formula, applied to different underlying data, to compute my own measure of fractionalization: group in each decade compared to natives, or the Div(Immigrant Group)/ Div(Natives). A value of 1 implies equal diversity, while values below 1 imply that immigrants are clustered in fewer occupations than natives are. The results can be seen through the following minicase study analysis. Case Study Results and Analysis In general, I found that the relative occupational diversity of immigrant groups increased over time from 1850 to 2000. This trend can be clearly seen as depicted in Figure 1. With just a few immigrants, occupational diversity is low because they are only represented in a few jobs. As the number of immigrants increases, however, they become more spread out. Thus, it appears as though all of the immigrant groups have spread out across occupations, like natives. However, despite an overall upward trend in diversity, many groups experience declines at certain points. Influxes of immigrants usually come with the same level of skills as a group, thus going into the same occupational area. This concentration is most often due to the fact that they are recruited for certain targeted purposes or they are restricted from entering the U.S. due to exclusionary policies. All of the above serve to produce an effect of decreased occupational diversity for short amounts of time. As time goes on, immigrants entering the U.S. are more skilled for the most part; this serves to reinforce the upward trend of occupational diversity since they are able to enter a wide array of occupations. N FRACTj = 1 – ∑ s2ij, i=1 where sij is the share of each occupation i (i = 1…N) in birthplace j. Using this index, my new data set allows for the computation of an alternative measure of heterogeneity. I therefore used this same idea to construct occupational diversity indices for each group and decade. This created occupational diversity for immigrants from 8 countries, as well as for natives, across 16 decades. Thus, fractionalization can be viewed here as a measure of occupational diversity. One issue when measuring this type of fractionalization, however, is that the number of occupations varies every year. The problem with this is that if the number of occupations increases over time, it will automatically increase occupational diversity, thus eliminating the ability to observe whether occupational diversity is actually increasing due to other factors. To try to address this issue, I calculate the relative occupational diversity of each immigrant 113 The one issue with these results is that while it is exciting that all of the immigrant groups appear to have broken free from their respective occupational classifications, it is slightly odd that they are all clustered around 1. This would essentially mean that they are just as occupationally diverse as natives. I attempted to control for the general increase in the number of occupations over time by using the OCC1950 variable and looking at the relative diversity of immigrant groups. However, I still may have failed to control for the fact that there are just more occupations over time. Natives In Figure 2, we see that the probability of randomly drawing 2 natives that were in different occupations was about 88% in 1850. Occupational diversity amongst natives increased over time with natives being represented in 144 occupations in 1850 to 188 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that natives were in different occupations in 2000 was about 95%. Occupational diversity amongst natives has been largely constant over time and can thus be used for comparison purposes. Due to this lack of variation, the fractionalization graphs for each country essentially look the same as their relative fractionalization graphs. .4 .6 .8 1 Occupational Diversity: Immigrants to Natives 1850 1900 1950 Census year Puerto Ricans Cubans Germans Filipinos Figure 1 114 Mexicans Irish Chinese Indians 2000 .8 .84 occ fract .88 .92 .96 1 Native Occupational Fractionalization 1850 1900 1950 2000 Census year Figure 2 Therefore, I only included both graphs for Mexicans in order to illustrate this trend. (Takaki 1998, 241). In that year, the United States also signed the Bracero Treaty, which reopened the floodgates for legal immigration of Mexican laborers. Between the period of 1942 and 1964, millions of Mexicans were imported into the U.S. as "braceros" under the Bracero Program to work temporarily on contract to United States growers and ranchers (“Mexican Immigrant Labor History”). At the end of World War II, Mexican workers were ousted from their jobs by returning servicemen and those who were coming out of wartime industries (“Mexican Immigrant Labor History”). Mexicans After the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo ended the war with Mexico in 1848, about 55,000 Mexican workers immigrated to the United States over the next 30 years to become field hands in regions that had, until very recently, belonged to Mexico (Takaki 1998, 239). The presence of Mexican workers in the American labor scene was also reinforced with the construction of the railroad between Mexico and the U.S. That presence grew between 1880 and 1900. When the United States entered World War II in 1942, labor was drawn from all areas of U.S. industry and poured into those which supported the war efforts. Thus, there was high demand for Mexican laborers in a variety of areas In Figure 3, Mexican fractionalization shows that the probability of randomly drawing 2 Mexicans that were in different occupations was about 43% in 1850. Occupational diversity within the group increased over time with Mexicans being represented in 10 occupations in 1850 to 115 .4 .6 occ fract .8 1 Mexican Occupational Fractionalization 1850 1900 1950 2000 Census year Figure 3 175 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that Mexicans were in different occupations in 2000 was about 93%. Figure 4 shows that Mexicans were half as occupationally diverse as natives in 1850, but were only 3% less diverse in 2000. On the graphs, we occupational diversity in 1850 most likely due to the fact workers were field hands at see low which was that most that time. .5 .6 relative occ diversity .7 .8 .9 1 Occupational Diversity: Mexicans to Natives 1850 1900 1950 Census year Figure 4 116 2000 We see a rise but then a decrease in occupational diversity in the period from 1880 to 1900, most likely due to the fact that workers were being concentrated in the building of railroads. We see increased diversity in the 40s as Mexicans were recruited for a wide range of occupations in both the industrial and agricultural sectors during the WWII period. Diversity continues on an upward trend after the war as they were forced to scatter into various occupations when soldiers returned to their jobs after the war. way of life. Fortunately for them, the expansion of the American economy created heavy demands for labor. At this time, thousands of miles of rail were being laid and so Irish laborers became a part of the construction gangs that did this grueling work (Takaki 1998, 114). Thus, the first generations were in largely unskilled and semiskilled occupations, but their children found themselves working in increasingly skilled trades. By 1900, when Irish Americans made up about a thirteenth of the male labor force, they were almost a third of the plumbers, steamfitters, and boilermakers. Industry working Irish soon found themselves lifted up into manager positions as more and more common laborers arrived from southern and eastern Europe (“Immigration: The Journey to America”). Irish The main reason that the Irish immigrated to the United States was to escape the widespread Potato Famine that plagued the country beginning in 1845 (Takaki 1998, 112). Over the next seven years, more than one million Irish came to the United States. This strained the resources of New York City and Boston as they struggled to manage the large influx of immigrants. Hence, competition for employment with the existing population was fierce and employment discrimination against the Irish became common (Takaki 1998, 113). These peasants had arrived without resources or capital to start farms or businesses. In addition, very few of them had ever accumulated the resources to make any meaningful choices about their Irish fractionalization indicates that the probability of randomly drawing 2 Irishmen that were in different occupations was about 69% in 1850. Occupational diversity within the group increased over time with the Irish being represented in 81 occupations in 1850 to 91 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that Irish were in different occupations in 2000 was about 92%. Figure 5 shows that the Irish were at 78% of the occupational diversity level of natives in 1850, but were up to 96% of the native diversity level in 2000. 117 .8 relative occ diversity .85 .9 .95 1 Occupational Diversity: Irish to Natives 1850 1900 1950 2000 Census year Figure 5 On the graph, we see relatively low occupational diversity in 1850 which was most likely due to their lack of skills and the discrimination that they faced when they landed in America. Thus, they were concentrated in certain sectors of the labor market. Over time, however, we see a largely consistent upward trend in occupational diversity. Thus, it appears that after their initial troubles, the Irish faced very few problems in terms of entering a wide array of occupations. Perhaps this was because the Irish may have been aided by their white race and capability of speaking the English language. Germans Many German individuals had already been in the United States for quite some time before the midnineteenth century. However, nearly one million German immigrants entered the United States in the 1850s for different reasons than earlier generations. Increasing industrialization and the use of machines to perform tasks previously done by manual labor forced many Germans from their respective family businesses (“History of GermanAmerican Relations”). In these later phases of German immigration, newcomers joined established settlers. Germans in America had a strong influence on the labor movement in the United States. Thus, labor union membership enabled German immigrants to improve their working 118 .9 relative occ diversity .94 .98 1.02 Occupational Diversity: Germans to Natives 1850 1900 1950 2000 Census year Figure 6 On the graph, we see largely consistent occupational diversity over time for Germans. Immigrants who came in 1850 appear to have almost immediately assimilated to natives and had similar, if not higher, levels of occupational diversity. This is probably due to the fact that they not only had skills when they got to the U.S., but they also had an established network already in the U.S. to turn to for help. Thus, they have remained in a diverse array of occupations over time. conditions and integrate into American society as a whole. Originally strong in such occupations as baking, carpentry, and brewing, they were also laborers, farmers, musicians, and merchants (“History of German-American Relations”). German fractionalization indicates that the probability of randomly drawing 2 Germans that were in different occupations was about 89% in 1850. Occupational diversity within the group increased over time with Germans being represented in 73 occupations in 1850 to 163 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that Germans were in different occupations in 2000 was about 95%. Figure 6 shows that Germans were actually about 1% more occupationally diverse relative to natives in 1850 and about 1% less diverse in 2000. Puerto Ricans Puerto Ricans have migrated to the United States since the late nineteenth century. The Spanish American War officially ended on December 10, 1898. The Treaty of Paris stated that Spain was to cede Puerto 119 looking to Puerto Rico for cheap labor, and they sent agents there to recruit workers. Abundant jobs and active recruitment increased the average yearly migration of Puerto Ricans from 1,800 between 1930 and 1940 to 31,000 from 1946 to 1950, and to 45,000 from 1951 to 1960 (“Historical Background”). The history of Puerto Rican American assimilation has been one of great success mixed with serious problems. Many Puerto Rican mainlanders hold high-paying white collar jobs. Outside of New York City, Puerto Ricans often boast higher college graduation rates and higher per capita incomes than their counterparts in other Latino groups (“Historical Background”). Rico, Guam and the Philippines to the United States. Puerto Rican migration to the United States really began, however, during World War I when the United States government needed both soldiers and workers (Takaki 1998, 292). On March 17, 1917, Congress passed the Jones Act making the Puerto Rican people United States citizens. As citizens, Puerto Rican men were drafted into the United States army to fight in the war. In addition, due to the scarcity of workers in the United States to construct ships and armaments, the federal government actively encouraged and recruited Puerto Ricans for that purpose. During 1917 and 1918, the government transported thousands of men from Puerto Rico to industrial complexes (“Historical Background”). Again at the end of World Puerto Rican indicates that the fractionalization probability of .9 relative occ diversity .92 .94 .96 .98 1 Occupational Diversity: Puerto Ricans to Natives 1900 1920 1940 1960 Census year 1980 2000 Figure 7 randomly drawing 2 Puerto Ricans that War II, United States companies began 120 were in different occupations was about 86% in 1910. Occupational diversity within the group increased over time with Puerto Ricans being represented in 12 occupations in 1910 to 153 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that Puerto Ricans were in different occupations in 2000 was about 95%. Figure 7 shows that Puerto Ricans were only 9% less occupationally diverse relative to natives in 1910 and about 1% less diverse in 2000. this was considered the first wave of Filipino immigration (“Countries and Their Cultures”). Also during this time, plantation workers were recruited to work in Hawaii on sugar plantations. In 1934, the U.S. made the Philippines a commonwealth and limited immigration to the U.S. to 50 Filipinos a year. The largest immigration wave arrived after the passage of the 1965 Immigration Act which eliminated country specific quotas. Changes in American immigration law in 1965 significantly altered the type and number of immigrants coming to the United States. Unlike pre-war immigrants who largely worked as unskilled laborers in West Coast and Hawaiian agriculture, the third wave was composed of larger numbers of well-educated Filipinos between the ages of 20 and 40 who came looking for better career opportunities than they could find in the Philippines. This highly skilled third wave population had a command of the English language, allowing them to enter a wide range of professions (“Countries and Their Cultures”). Before 1900 and the influx of Puerto Rican immigrants after the Spanish American war, the only occupation that Puerto Ricans were in was laborers. Thus, they had no occupational diversity. However, on the graph, we see a large jump in diversity after this event as immigrants began to flow in. Occupational diversity drops during WWI though because Puerto Ricans were drafted into the war since they were now U.S. citizens. Active recruitment of targeted Puerto Rican labor occurred in the period from 1940 to 1960 and so there was a huge influx of immigrants, thus drastically lowering occupational diversity during this time. After 1960, however, occupational diversity has been on an upward trend as Puerto Ricans have successfully entered a variety of occupations. Filipino fractionalization indicates that the probability of randomly drawing 2 Filipinos that were in different occupations was about 49% in 1910. Occupational diversity within the group increased over time with the Filipinos being represented in 5 occupations in 1910 to 144 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that Filipinos were in different occupations in 2000 was about 96%. Figure 8 shows that Filipinos were only about half as occupationally diverse as natives in 1910, but were actually .7% more diverse than natives in 2000. Filipinos In 1898, the United States defeated Spain in the Spanish American War and the Philippines became a U.S. territory, so the U.S. began to recruit Filipinos into the Navy. Between 1903 and 1934, 500,000 Filipino students came to the U.S. to study in American schools; 121 .5 .6 relative occ diversity .7 .8 .9 1 Occupational Diversity: Filipinos to Natives 1900 1920 1940 1960 Census year 1980 2000 Figure 8 Before 1910 and the influx of Filipino immigrants after the Spanish American war, the only occupation that Filipinos were in was farmers. Thus, they had no occupational diversity. However, on the graph, we see a large jump in diversity after this time as Filipinos flooded into America as students especially in the second and third decades of the 20th century, and began to enter into an increasingly diverse array of occupations thereafter. When the U.S. government limited the immigration of Filipinos in the 1930s, we see occupational diversity leveling out for the time being. Diversity continues on an upward trend especially after the 1960s when a large wave of highly skilled immigrants was allowed into the U.S. and thus went into a wide scope of occupations. Cubans In the latter part of the 1800s and early 1900s, many Cubans moved freely between Cuba and the U.S. The two countries traded sugar, coffee, and tobacco. Cigar factories from Cuba began to move to Florida (“Countries and Their Cultures”). There have also been at least four distinct waves of Cuban immigration to the United States since 1959. The first of these recent migrations began immediately after Castro's victory and continued until the U.S. government imposed a blockade of Cuba at the time of the Cuban missile crisis (“Countries and Their Cultures”). The second major migration started in 1965 and continued through 1973. Cuba and the United States agreed that Cubans with relatives residing in the United States would be transported from Cuba. The third 122 migration, known as the Mariel Boat Lift, occurred in 1980 after Fidel Castro permitted Cubans residing in the United States to visit relatives in Cuba (“Countries and Their Cultures”). Economic conditions have worsened since the fall of Cuba's principal economic supporter, the Soviet Union, and so in recent times many Cubans have left Cuba in makeshift boats for Florida. Over the years, just as the migration “push factors” have changed, so has the composition of the migrant population. While the earliest migrants were drawn from the highly educated and conservative middle and upper classes, more recent migrants have been poorer and less educated. However, for the most part, the Cuban American community today is well assimilated in the United States. Cuban Americans enjoy greater economic security than other Hispanic groups and the community as a whole is known to be highly educated (“Countries and Their Cultures”). Cuban fractionalization indicates that the probability of randomly drawing 2 Cubans that were in different occupations was about 50% in 1850. Occupational diversity within the group increased over time with the Cubans being represented in 2 occupations in 1850 to 139 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that Cubans were in different occupations in 2000 was about 95%. Figure 9 shows that Cubans were only at 56% of the occupational diversity level of natives in 1850, but were up to 99% of the native diversity level in 2000. On the graph, we see low occupational diversity in the period from 1850 to 1900 which was most likely due to the fact that most Cubans were .5 .6 relative occ diversity .7 .8 .9 1 Occupational Diversity: Cubans to Natives 1850 1900 1950 Census year Figure 9 123 2000 concentrated in the trading business during this time. After the Spanish American war when Cuba became a protectorate of the U.S., the first real wave of Cubans migrated to the U.S., thus bringing Cubans from a diverse array of occupations into the U.S. We can see a slight decline in 1960 which is aligned with the election of Castro in Cuba and the influx of immigrants that occurred as a result. Most Cuban immigrants have been highly educated and thus appear to have spread out across occupations quite nicely relative to natives. passage of the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, the first race-based immigration law (Takaki 1998, 131). Thousands of Chinese left their homes to become contract laborers in the American West. They were recruited to extract minerals and construct a vast railroad network during the Gold Rush period (Takaki 1998, 129). Throughout most of the second period (the period of exclusion; 1882-1965), only diplomats, merchants, and students and their dependents were allowed to travel between the United States and China (“Countries and Their Cultures”). The Civil Rights movement in the 1960s finally ushered in a new era, the third period in Chinese American immigration history. Chinese Americans were liberated from a structure of racial oppression. Under new immigration laws, thousands of Chinese came to the United States each year to reunite with their families. Chinese In many respects, the motivations for Chinese to come to the United States are similar to those of most immigrants; some came to the United States to seek better economic opportunities, while others were compelled to leave China either as contract laborers or refugees. However, their collective experience as a racial minority, since they first arrived in the mid-nineteenth century, differs significantly from the European immigrant groups and other racial minorities. Chinese were singled out for discrimination through laws enacted by the states in which they had settled. Chinese immigration can be roughly divided into three periods: 1849-1882, 1882-1965, and 1965 to the present. The first period, also known as the first wave, began shortly after the Gold Rush in California and ended abruptly with the Chinese fractionalization indicates that the probability of randomly drawing 2 Chinese that were in different occupations was about 40% in 1850. Occupational diversity within the group increased over time with the Chinese being represented in 2 occupations in 1850 to 138 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that Chinese were in different occupations in 2000 was about 94%. Figure 10 shows that Chinese were only at 46% of the occupational diversity level of natives in 1850, but were up to 98% of the native diversity level in 2000. 124 .4 relative occ diversity .6 .8 1 Occupational Diversity: Chinese to Natives 1850 1900 1950 2000 Census year Figure 10 On the graph, we see low occupational diversity in 1850 because most of the Chinese were concentrated in occupations dealing with the Gold Rush in California. We see occupational diversity rise, but then fall beginning in 1880 due to the Chinese Exclusion Act which only allowed certain occupational groups of Chinese into the United States. Occupational diversity then remains fairly constant with a continued increase especially after the 1960s due to the Immigration Act which brought new Chinese immigrants into the U.S. from a diverse array of occupations. in agriculture and construction (Takaki 1998, 281). However, several pieces of legislation were introduced in the United States such as the Congressional Exclusion Law of 1923, which attempted either to restrict the entry of Indians or to deny them residence and citizenship rights in America. Another significant wave thus followed in the 1950s which mainly included students and professionals. From 1965 onward, a second significant wave of Indian immigration began, spurred by a change in U.S. immigration law that lifted prior quotas and restrictions and allowed significant numbers of Asians to immigrate (Takaki 1998, 281). With the technology boom of the 1990s, the largest influx of Indians arrived between 1995 and 2000. The occupational profile presented by the Asian Indian community today is one of increasing Indians The first Asian Indians arrived in America as early as the late nineteenth century. The majority of Indians worked 125 here as private household workers. Thus, they had no occupational diversity. However, on the graph, we see a large jump in diversity after 1900 as many Indians came to America to work in certain sectors of the labor market. We diversity. Although a large number of Asian Indians are professionals, others own small businesses or are employed as semi- or non-skilled workers. Indian fractionalization indicates .6 .7 relative occ diversity .8 .9 1 Occupational Diversity: Indians to Natives 1900 1920 1940 1960 Census year Figure 11 that the probability of randomly drawing 2 Indians that were in different occupations was about 55% in 1900. Occupational diversity within the group increased over time with the Indians being represented in 3 occupations in 1900 to 141 occupations in 2000. Thus, the probability that Indians were in different occupations in 2000 was about 91%. Figure 11 shows that Indians were only at 59% of the occupational diversity level of natives in 1900, but were up to 95% of the native diversity level in 2000. The first immigrants from India were recorded in 1870 and they were all 126 1980 2000 then see a significant drop in diversity in the 1920s which was most likely due to the Exclusion Act of 1923 which prevented immigrants of different skill levels from entering the U.S. We see a slight decline in diversity in the 1990s, when a significant number of technologically-oriented Indians immigrated in reaction to the tech boom. Overall, however, the Indian American community is highly diverse, representing both skilled and unskilled fields. B2(∆ln(Immigrant/Native ratio)c,t) + Year FEt + Country FEc + uc,t Both regressions look at the relationship between relative occupational diversity and a ratio variable measuring the number of immigrants relative to the number of natives, within the U.S. population, for each country and decade. In equation (1), I use the contemporary natural log of this ratio, while in equation (2) I use the lagged natural log of the ratio in addition to examining the change in the natural log of the ratio. The change ratio represents the change in the immigrant ratio from the previous decade in order to capture large immigrant influxes. In both regressions I control for year fixed effects to control for occupational changes over time as well as country fixed effects to control for permanent immigrant group differences. To do country fixed effects, I omit Germany because it has the most constant occupational diversity across time. Empirical Model Through my case studies, I have seen a general theme regarding the apparent effect of large immigrant influxes on relative occupational diversity as well as the idea that immigrant groups are inherently different. The persisting problem with my approach is that there are changes in measurement over time. These issues can be addressed in a model looking at the effect of the immigrant to native ratio on relative occupational diversity after controlling for year and country fixed effects. This would give me the ability to observe if occupational diversity is increasing due to other factors. The regression analysis of this study is thus based on the following empirical models of relative occupational diversity: Regression Results and Analysis The following table shows the regression results for equations (1) and (2). Table 1 ln(ratio) = B0 + (1) RelativeDiversityc,t B1(ln(Immigrant/Native ratio)c,t) + Year FEt + Country FEc + uc,t lagged ln(ratio) (2) RelativeDiversityc,t = B0 + B1(lagged + ln(Immigrant/Native ratio)c,t) dy1 (1850) .061*** (.009) .035*** (.009) .010 (.021) ∆ln(ratio) dy2 (1860) 127 -.025 (.091) dy3 (1870) dy4 (1880) dy5 (1900) dy6 (1910) dy7 (1920) dy8 (1930) dy9 (1940) dy10 (1950) dy11 (1960) dy12 (1970) dy13 (1980) dy14 (1990) dy15 (2000) dbpl2 (Puerto Rico) dbpl3 (Mexico) dbpl4 (Cuba) dbpl5 (Ireland) dbpl7 (China) dbpl8 (Philippines) dbpl9 (India) Number of 110 Observations -.045 (.085) .035 (.087) .031 (.086) .194** (.084) .279*** (.084) .275*** (.084) .364*** (.084) .357*** (.084) .334*** (.083) .337*** (.083) .309*** (.083) .291*** (.082) .272*** (.082) -.010 (.064) -.095* (.054) .064 (.063) -.009 (.052) -.015 (.056) -.010 (.067) .040 (.072) 95 .075 (.074) -.018 (.073) R-squared .6551 .5459 Note: *** Significant at 1% level; ** Significant at 5% level; * Significant at 10% level .081 (.070) .188*** (.071) .186*** (.070) .263*** (.073) .263*** (.071) .255*** (.069) .265*** (.068) .253*** (.067) .243*** (.067) .225*** (.068) -.002 (.055) -.097** (.046) .019 (.055) -.011 (.045) -.035 (.049) .007 (.059) .007 (.064) These results highlight the effect of the number of immigrants on relative occupational diversity. It appears that the ratio of immigrants to natives has a statistically significant relation to the occupational spread of immigrants. The results show that as the number of immigrants in the population increases relative to the number of natives, the relative occupational diversity increases. Both of the coefficients on ln(ratio) and lagged ln(ratio) are highly significant and positive. The high r-squared values for both regressions reaffirm the strength of these results. For equation (1), the coefficient on ln(ratio) shows that if the immigrant to native ratio increases by 1%, then the relative occupational diversity increases by .06 percentage points. For equation (2), the coefficient on lagged ln(ratio) illustrates that if the immigrant to native ratio increases by 1%, then the relative occupational diversity increases by .03 percentage points. These findings support my individual country case studies because as the number of immigrants increases over time, convergence with natives actually does begin to occur as immigrants’ occupational diversity trends upward. I have shown that this convergence is statistically significant and that relative occupational diversity is indeed increasing. This can be seen graphically as illustrated in Figures 12 and 13. A clearly positive linear relationship can be seen between the ratio and occupational diversity here. 128 Relationship between ln(ratio) and Rel Occ Div -1 relative occupational diversity -.5 0 (controlling for year FE and country FE) -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 ln(ratio) Figure 13 Relationship between Lagged ln(ratio) and Rel Occ Div -1 relative occupational diversity -.8 -.6 -.4 -.2 0 (controlling for year FE and country FE) -12 -10 -8 -6 lagged ln(ratio) Figure 12 129 -4 -2 Relationship between Change in ln(ratio) and Rel Occ Div -.6 relative occupational diversity -.4 -.2 0 .2 (controlling for year FE and country FE) -2 0 2 4 change in ln(ratio) Figure 14 omitted group) in occupational diversity. This considerable 9 percentage point gap suggests that there is an innate country difference that is affecting relative occupational diversity. In regards to year fixed effects, as time goes on the coefficient values on the year dummies increase and they become increasingly significant. So, by including year fixed effects I am able to control for higher occupational diversity in later years. In equation (2), the coefficient on the change in ln(ratio) is insignificant. Therefore, the change ratio is unrelated to relative occupational diversity. Through this regression, it can be seen that there is no evidence for a relationship between immigrant influxes and relative occupational diversity. This can be seen graphically as illustrated in Figure 14. Thus, it appears that once I control for year and country fixed effects, immigrant influxes actually do not matter. Conclusion This paper documents the occupational diversity of immigrants in the United States in the period between 1850 and 2000. The study looks at immigrants from the following countries: Mexico, Ireland, Germany, Puerto Rico, Cuba, China, Philippines, and India. A case study examination of the In regards to the country fixed effects which control for the size of the immigrant population, the coefficient on the Mexico dummy is significant in both regressions. Mexican immigrants are thus the only group to exhibit a significant difference from Germans (the 130 occupational diversity indices for each group and decade reveals that the relative occupational diversity of immigrants has increased over time. By looking at the immigration experience of each group both quantitatively and qualitatively, we can attempt to explain the reasons for various trends in occupational diversity across time. These results do not explicitly show any one significant overarching difference in occupational diversity of immigrants that can be explained by individual factors such as race, language, or colonial status. Both the Irish and Germans, who are white, had fairly consistent high occupational diversity across time. Puerto Ricans were similar in this respect, which was possibly due to their initial colonial status. However, no conclusive evidence can be drawn in this regard. Overall, the occupational spread of immigrants came to look more like that of natives over time. In fact, most of the immigrant groups had about the same level of occupational diversity in 2000 and were able to break free from certain occupational classifications. Statistically, relative occupational diversity has indeed increased. A clear positive relationship exists between relative occupational diversity and the immigrant to native ratio. The Mexican immigrant group is the only one that appears to have an innate difference in occupational diversity. A recent New York Times article, “Work Force Fueled by Highly Skilled Immigrants”, released in April 2010 actually discusses the new analysis of census data and highlights its findings regarding immigrant occupations. The data shows that “about two-thirds of all immigrants in the country are nearly evenly distributed across the job and income spectrum” (Preston 2010). This data therefore directly supports my findings. The United States is receiving a more diverse and economically important flow of immigrants than many people realize. The fastest economic growth over the past two decades has actually been in cities that have received “large influxes of immigrants with a mix of occupations” (Preston 2010). Occupational diversity is thus proven to be highly significant in regards to economic health. This data serves to offer a new perspective on the immigration debate as it refutes the common perception that the U.S. is overwhelmed with solely low wage foreign-born workers. Thus this data, which my results complement, can be used to inform Congress as they seek to reform immigration policy moving into the future. 131 Appendix A Professional and Technical Occupations: Accountants and auditors Actors and actresses Airplane pilots and navigators Architects Artists and art teachers Athletes Authors Chemists Chiropractors Clergymen College presidents and deans Professors and instructors Dancers and dancing teachers Dentists Designers Dietitians and nutritionists Editors and reporters Engineers, aeronautical Engineers, chemical Engineers, civil Engineers, electrical Engineers, industrial Engineers, mechanical Engineers, metallurgical, metallurgists Engineers, mining Entertainers (n.e.c.) Foresters and conservationists Funeral directors and embalmers Lawyers and judges Librarians Musicians and music teachers Nurses, professional Agricultural scientists Biological scientists Geologists and geophysicists Mathematicians Physicists Clerical and Kindred Occupations: Attendants and assistants, library Attendants, physician's and dentist's office Baggagemen, transportation Bank tellers Bookkeepers Cashiers Collectors, bill and account Dispatchers and starters, vehicle Express messengers and railway mail clerks Mail carriers Messengers and office boys Office machine operators Shipping and receiving clerks Stenographers, typists, and secretaries Telegraph messengers Telegraph operators Telephone operators Ticket, station, and express agents Clerical and kindred workers (n.e.c.) Service Worker Occupations: Attendants, hospital and other institution Attendants, professional and personal service (n.e.c.) Attendants, recreation and amusement Barbers, beauticians, and manicurists Bartenders Bootblacks Boarding and lodging house keepers Charwomen and cleaners Cooks, except private household Counter and fountain workers Elevator operators Firemen, fire protection Guards, watchmen, and doorkeepers Housekeepers and stewards, except private household Janitors and sextons 132 Optometrists Osteopaths Personnel and labor relations workers Pharmacists Photographers Physicians and surgeons Radio operators Recreation and group workers Religious workers Social and welfare workers Economists Psychologists Statisticians and actuaries Miscellaneous social scientists Sports instructors and officials Surveyors Teachers (n.e.c.) Technicians, medical and dental Technicians, testing Technicians (n.e.c.) Therapists and healers (n.e.c.) Veterinarians Marshals and constables Midwives Policemen and detectives Porters Practical nurses Sheriffs and bailiffs Ushers, recreation and amusement Waiters and waitresses Watchmen (crossing) and bridge tenders Service workers, except private household (n.e.c.) and Mobility over Time.” Journal of Labor Economics 17:1 (49-79). Bibliography Alesina, Alberto, Arnaud Devleeschauwer, William Easterly, Sergio Kurlat, and Romain Wacziarg (2003). “Fractionalization.” Journal of Economic Growth 8:2 (155-94). “Historical Background.” Latino Education Network Service, <http://palante.org/History.htm>. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina and Sara de la Rica (2006). “Labor Market Assimilation of Recent Immigrants in Spain.” IZA Discussion Paper, No. 2104. “History of German-American Relations.” U.S. Diplomatic Mission to Germany, 2008.<http://usa.usembassy.de/garelatio ns8300.htm>. “Countries and Their Cultures: Multicultural America.” Advameg Inc., 2009. <http://www.everyculture.com/multi/>. “Immigration: The Journey to America.” <http://library.thinkquest.org/20619/Iris h.html>. Green, David (1999). “Immigrant Occupational Attainment: Assimilation “Mexican Immigrant Labor History.” Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), 2010. 133 <http://www.pbs.org/kpbs/theborder/his tory/timeline/17.html>. Patel, Krishna and Francis Vella (2007). “Immigrant Networks and Their Implications for Occupational Choice and Wages.” IZA Discussion Paper, No. 3217. Preston, Julia (2010). “Work Force Fueled by Highly Skilled Immigrants.” The New York Times. April 15, 2010. Ruggles, Steven, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2010. Takaki, Ronald (1998). A Larger Memory: A History of Our Diversity, With Voices. Boston: Little, Brown and Company. Toussaint-Comeau, Maude (2004). “The Occupational Assimilation of Hispanics in the U.S.: Evidence from Panel Data.” WP 2004-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 134 Southern Racism and Reality: A Case Study Dan Lasker, Class of 2010 The notion pervasive in the popular media of the racist Southerner is a stereotype with serious implications. Despite recent evidence showing that slavery and even plantations were plentiful in the North into the early 19th Century, people commonly ascribe a higher level of racist predisposition to individuals living in the South. This paper looks at the period between 1950 and 1970 to see if cities from the former Confederacy responded differently to the Civil Rights Movement as compared to cities from the former Union along two different segregation indices. The results show that while Southern cities had significantly higher levels of racial isolation, there was no significant difference in the way Southern segregation changed over the course of the Civil Rights Movement relative to the North. has any roots in truth is an important undertaking if we are serious about moving past race. Introduction Nearly 150 years after the end of the American Civil War, calls for secession1 and celebration of the Confederacy2 still find their way into our common culture. While racial integration has become the legal norm and tolerance socially expected, there is still a common acceptance by most that we are in no ways a “post-racial” society. We can all pull up images of modern day racist figures, and in popular culture, this caricature is often of a person from the South. While the Southern “good ol’ boy” clinging to the Confederate flag, which has been poked fun at by everything from the Dukes of Hazzard to Saturday Night Live, is a crude overgeneralization, it is a pervasive stereotype in our society. Uncovering whether or not this meme This paper uses the Civil Rights Movement as a case study to see if the Southern cities responded differently than the North to the period of great social change in the 50s and 60s. Given the magnitude of the changes that the era brought about, it is easy to conceive of an area with more deep-rooted racial tension responding less dramatically than one in which more open minded people cling to the cause. Alternatively, it could be argued that the rise in legal measures to spread equality across races affected cities that had previously higher levels of racial tension more. Conveniently, the key events of the Civil Rights Movement (see Table 1) primarily fall directly in between 2 Census years, 1950 and 1970, so by comparing outcomes in 1970 with those in 1950 this paper should be able to get a picture of the short term impact of the Civil Rights Movement across 1 Linkins, Jason. “Glenn Beck: Secession or Suicide.” The Huffington Post. 16 April 2009. 2 May 2010. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/16/glennbeck-secession-or-s_n_187779.html>. 2 Erdman, Shelby Lin. “Virginia governor declares April as Confederate History Month.” CNN Politics. 7 April 2010. 2 May 2010.<http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/04/0 7/virginia-governor-declares-april-as-confederatehistory-month>. 135 Table 1: Civil Rights Movement Timeline 1954 * U.S. Supreme Court declares school segregation unconstitutional in Brown v. Board ruling. 1955 * Rosa Parks refuses to move to the back of a Montgomery, Alabama, bus as required by city ordinance; boycott follows and bus segregation ordinance is declared unconstitutional. * Federal Interstate Commerce Commission bans segregation on interstate trains and buses. 1956 * Coalition of Southern congressmen calls for massive resistance to Supreme Court desegregation rulings. 1957 * Arkansas Gov. Orval Rubus uses National Guard to block nine black students from attending a Little Rock High School; following a court order, President Eisenhower sends in federal troops to ensure compliance. * Four black college students begin sit-ins at lunch counter of a Greensboro, NC, restaurant where black patrons are not served. 1960 * Congress approves a watered-down voting rights act after a filibuster by Southern senators. 1961 * Freedom Rides begin from Washington, D.C., into Southern states. * President Kennedy sends federal troops to the University of Mississippi to quell riots so that James Meredith, the school's first black student, can attend. * The Supreme Court rules that segregation is unconstitutional in all 1962 transportation facilities. * The Department of Defense orders full integration of military reserve units, the National Guard excluded. 1963 * Civil rights leader Medgar Evers is killed by a sniper's bullet. * Race riots prompt modified martial law in Cambridge, Maryland. * Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. delivers "I Have a Dream" speech to hundreds of thousands at the March on Washington. * Congress passes Civil Rights Act declaring discrimination based on race illegal after 75-day long filibuster. 1964 * Three civil rights workers disappear in Mississippi after being stopped for speeding; found buried six weeks later. * Riots in Harlem and Philadelphia. 136 * March from Selma to Montgomery, Alabama, to demand protection for voting rights; two civil rights workers slain earlier in the year in Selma. 1965 * Malcolm X assassinated. * Riot in Watts, Los Angeles. * New voting rights act signed. 1966 * Edward Brooke, R-Massachusetts, elected first black U.S. senator in 85 years. * Riots in Detroit, Newark, New Jersey. * Thurgood Marshall first black to be named to the Supreme Court. 1967 * Carl Stokes (Cleveland) and Richard G. Hatcher (Gary, Indiana) elected first black mayors of major U.S. cities. * Martin Luther King Jr. assassinated in Memphis, Tennessee; James Earl Ray later convicted and sentenced to 99 years in prison. 1968 * Poor People's March on Washington -- planned by King before his death -goes on. regions. After difference-in-difference estimation, there is no significant difference between the South’s response to the Civil Rights Movement relative to the North in terms of segregation outcomes, which suggests that a regional difference in short-term response to the Civil Rights Movement is not justified by the data. segregation and how segregation is changing as the makeup of our country changes. More relevant for my time period is their unsupported assertion that social changes do not affect segregation patterns. By looking at a time period of some of the greatest social change in history, I can see if their assertion is correct. Literature Review Rhode and Strumpf (2003) show that models based on the assumption that residential choice depends solely on local public goods (Tiebout models) are not consistent with long-run segregation trends. This is important for my topic because it demonstrates that local public finance figures are not sufficient explainers of segregation outcomes as people who think that a lack of Tiebout sorting is to blame for segregation might claim. Therefore, if the South shows signs of having a different segregation differential between 1950 and 1970 it While the segregation literature is extensive, papers dealing with historical case studies such as my own are harder to find. Nevertheless, a thorough literature review is useful to contextualize my method and results, even if my objective is less studied in the rest of the literature. Logan, Stults, and Farley (2004) primarily focus on segregation between 1980 and 2000, providing an extensive amount of background on the roots of 137 cannot easily be swept away by an argument that a Tiebout model is actually the simplest way of describing what is going on. results are explainable. more believable and Tolnay and Beck (2002) puts the move of blacks from South to North during the twentieth century into context and works to portray the blacks who moved northward in a more accurate manner. While a large percentage of the black migrants were former sharecroppers pushed out by the demise of the plantation system, Tolnay makes the point that these migrants were also most likely to be the go-getters who tended to be relatively more skilled than their peers they were leaving behind. This notion lends credence to the difference-in-difference estimation method I later employ, as I am able to pull out regional effects from the data, all else equal, to get a broad picture of the differences in segregation between the North and South. Bayer (2002) makes an interesting case for why race itself may not be the sole driver of segregation, but rather that properly measured income, education, and immigration status data can explain away a lot of the perceived racially driven segregation. While Bayer’s point has more to do with the limitations of large data pools (which unfortunately I am stuck with since I’m working with data from 60 years ago), he raises some interesting points about the complexity of how segregation emerges that could lend credence to my zero result. His controls primarily rely on fine-tuned Microdata that have only become available recently, but his intuition is important in contextualizing my results. Card, Mas, and Rothstein (2007) builds off of Schelling (1971) in making the case that extreme segregation that marks many major US metropolitan areas is not the result of discriminatory institutions and practices, like real estate steering, but actually individual choices based in homophily, preference for like individuals. They show that once the black population eclipses a tipping point around the 13% mark, whites move out in great force, which will lead to increased segregation. Their intuition that segregation is the result of some tacit force beyond the control of institutions seems to suggest that my interaction coefficient should in fact be insignificantly different from zero. In the context of this and Bayer (2002) my null Collins and Margo (2004) uses a similar historical approach to the one I want to employ to see how the race riots of the 50s and 60s influenced property value outcomes. They use an interesting model in which their primary independent variable is a “riot index” that they regress on property values to find, in their eyes, that race riots drove down property values for blacks. While again, their results are largely predicated on a highly specialized data set and a complex riot index, they show the viability of a case study approach and the magnitude of the effect of the social upheaval during the 50s and 60s. Massey and Denton (1993) uses a series of studies with data mainly from 1970-1980 to conclude that blacks faced a 138 near-apartheid situation of persistent high segregation, which was barely responsive to improvements in their socioeconomic standing. Unlike Hispanic and Asian minorities, who experienced substantially lower levels of residential separation than did blacks, blacks remained highly segregated even in metropolitan areas where they had relatively high income and education. Reductions in black-white segregation were found mainly in areas with small black populations, suggesting that population and black population (which is implicit to my indices) are both going to play a key role in segregation outcomes (Massey and Gross 1991). and more against segregation, blacks' demand for housing in all-white or overwhelmingly white neighborhoods is weak, which helps to maintain residential segregation. According to the analysis he and his fellow coauthors undertook, in Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, and Los Angeles, 65% of blacks would not move into an attractive, affordable home in an all-white neighborhood. The paper goes on to say that blacks typically explain their decision not in terms of racial solidarity, but rather of the cool reception and hostility they expect from white would-be neighbors. Similarly, Ellen (2000) found that blacks who moved avoided census tracts in which less than 1 resident in 10 was black in favor of similar census tracts with greater representations of blacks. The absence of blacks from a neighborhood or a low representation of blacks is, apparently, an important signal to blacks not to seek new homes in that neighborhood. This factor could slow progress in regions with historically high levels of segregation. Schuman et al. (1998) pulled data from the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research to portray the changing of racial attitudes around my time of interest. When national samples of whites were first asked by the Center in 1963 whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement that "White people have a right to keep blacks out of their neighborhoods if they want to, and blacks should respect that right," 60% agreed. When the question was asked in 1980 and 1996, the percentages of whites who agreed with that principle of segregation dropped to 34% and 13%, respectively. But segregation still persists, and this paper examines whether it persisted throughout the time period of social unrest differently in different parts of the country. In the most seminal work dealing with historical segregation, Cutler, Glaeser, and Vigdor (1999) build upon the finding in Cutler and Glaeser (1997) that segregation is bad for nearly every outcome variable for blacks and provide a thorough examination of segregation in the 20th Century. Even though historical contextualization was only a part of their lengthy paper that dealt more extensively with the ghetto, their data is the most cohesive set of historical segregation data available. The paper motivated my resolve to begin with 1950, instead of trying to do any additional Farley et al. (1997) countered that paper’s assertion that segregation is improving dramatically by looking at the situation from the other side. He makes the case that while whites may be more 139 contextualization, as pre-World War II data for the South showed signs of being skewed by ward-based segregation practices. That is, government officials would draw ward lines to segregate their respective communities to garner favor among constituents. They also convincingly showed that dissimilarity and isolation indices are the most consistent measures of segregation and the easiest to come by, so they are the dependent variables in my model. 1890, only cities with over 25,000 inhabitants had ward reports, so cities with less than 25,000 inhabitants were omitted. From 1900 onward, the population cutoff was 50,000. All cities sampled had both dissimilarity and isolation indices available. Tract reporting began with a select group of large cities in 1940 and 1950, with Census tracts being defined as geographic units containing 3000 to 5000 individuals. Because segregation measures are most meaningful when the black population is sizable, only cities or MSAs with at least 1,000 blacks were sampled. The number of cities in the sample increased greatly between 1950 and 1960 because tracts became ubiquitous and population growth brought a lot of MSAs over the selection threshold. While this disparity in data is not ideal for a case study like mine, I am confident that my differencein-difference approach should resolve most of the selection issues. As I mentioned, this paper primarily looks at the difference between the two time periods that envelope the Civil Rights movement, which is most commonly appropriated the dates of 1954-1971. From a historical point of view this is an interesting period to study because any regional differences might be explained by one region’s higher level of acceptance of the civil rights message or the changing times in general. Cutler, Glaeser, and Vigdor (1999) did some similar peering into regional effects over time as controls for their larger regressions, but they did not clearly define their regions and brought in no interaction term to capture the difference in outcomes between the regions. They did however show that there clearly were regional effects in 1970 and 1990. Segregation is measured by both a dissimilarity index and an isolation index as is done in Cutler, Glaeser, and Vigdor (1999). The Dissimilarity Index was proposed by Duncan and Duncan (1955) and refined in Tauber and Tauber (1965) and represents whether or not blacks disproportionately reside in certain areas of a city relative to whites: Data Description: The data set used is a modified version of the data used by Cutler, Glaeser, and Vigdor (1999). Their overall data was drawn from 1890 to 1990 Census data. To be included in their sample, a city or MSA had to have ward or tractlevel data available in a given year. In where blacki represents the number of blacks in area i, blacktotal the total number of blacks in a city, nonblacki the number of non-blacks in area i, and nonblacktotal the total number of nonblacks in a city. The index ranges from 0 to 1, and can thought of as the percent of 140 for a neighborhood with like peers, which may occur outside of race (McPherson, Smith-Lovin and Cook 2001). Just because blacks and non-blacks do not live close to one another, it does not mean that they do not interact with one another (Blau 1977), so coming up with a way to quantify interaction is important. Using the model from Bell (1954) as Cutler, Glaeser, and Vigdor (1999) do, an isolation index can be constructed as: the black population that would need to move to bring about an even distribution of blacks and non-blacks. That is, a dissimilarity index of 0.74 (the mean in Table 2) means that 74 percent of blacks would need to relocate to bring about an even distribution. This is a considerably high index (Massey and Denton 1993) and may point to some upward selection bias in the data sampling that I will discuss further later in the paper. While the Dissimilarity Index can give an idea of the geographic densities of different populations, it cannot measure the level of contact that blacks and non-blacks have with one another. To get at the root of racial tension, it seems that such an Isolation Index would be more helpful since Table 2: Summary Statistics (388 observations) the Mean Dissimilarity Variable Index is Dissimilarity Index 0.740 more likely to be heavily Isolation Index 0.428 influenced 0.291 by people’s Former Confederate homophilic Former Union 0.483 preference Std. Dev. 0.103 0.215 0.455 0.500 Former Border 0.047 0.211 Former Western Territories 0.174 0.380 Log Tract Size 2.413 0.856 Log Population 12.752 1.005 Note: Log Tract Size = ln (Size of City / Number of Tracts) Log Population is in 1,000,000s. 141 Figure 4: Map of Black Density where, again, blacki represents the number of blacks in area i, blacktotal the total number of blacks in a city, nonblacki the number of non-blacks in area i, nonblacktotal the total number of non-blacks in a city, personsi the total number of people in a tract, and personstotal, the total number of people in a city. The intuition behind the model is that a small number of blacks are going to be less isolated, on average, than a larger black population simply because there are fewer blacks to be isolated with. By starting with the percentage black of the area occupied by the average black and then subtracting the percentage black of the city as a whole, the index can eliminate the effect coming from the overall size of the black population in the city. The indexing denominator makes it so that the adjusted index ranges from zero to one. Cutler, Glaeser, and Vigdor (1999) say that a city has a ghetto if the Dissimilarity Index is greater than 0.6 and the Isolation Index is greater than 0.3. Looking at the means in Table 2, this means that the average city in my sample has a ghetto. Other summary statistics show the disparity between the number of Former Union cities (48.3%) and Southern cities (29.1%). With the Cutler, Glaeser, and Vigdor data at my disposal, I went through all of the cities and determined whether each was formerly in the Union, in the Confederacy, or a Border state based on the geographic boundaries on the map in Figure 3. If none of the above (i.e. the city was in a state colored white in Figure 3) I dropped the data for the purposes of this study due to my focus on the difference between cities in Former Union and Confederate states. 142 Figure 3: Civil War Boundaries As Figure 4 clearly shows the population distribution in the South is very different than it is in the North1. While the South has more blacks, they are spread across the agrarian Southern landscape, while in the North blacks are focused in the cities. This could lead to sample selection bias since only MSAs with over 50000 people and 1000 blacks are included in the analysis. So even though the 2000 Census showed 54% of restrictions gets around this selection problem, but brings back the problems related to the consistency of the segregation indices that the imposition of the selection criteria did away with. Table 5 shows the movement over time in the dissimilarity index for all 3 geographic regions. Former Border states show virtually no change. Former Union states show a 0.038 increase in the dissimilarity index from 1950 to 1970. Former Confederate states on the other hand show a decrease of 0.035 in moving from 1950 to 1970. blacks lived in the South, a large deal lived in areas that were not picked up in 1950, 1960, or 1970 given the restrictions on the data selection. Lifting the 1 Even though the figure is from 2000, the distribution has remained similar since the Civil War. 143 Table 5: Dissimilarity Index Trends Table 6: Isolation Index Trends Former Former Former Union Confederate Border Former Union Former Former Confederate Border Dism 1950 0.729 (0.128) 0.746 (0.090) 0.757 (0.095) Isol 1950 0.406 (0.215) 0.600 (0.123) 0.583 (0.100) Dism 1960 0.753 (0.092) 0.717 (0.105) 0.759 (0.074) Isol 1960 0.365 (0.205) 0.526 (0.156) 0.483 (0.240) Dism 1970 0.767 0.711 (0.096) (0.109) 0.756 (0.092) Isol 1970 0.411 (0.206) 0.526 (0.154) 0.439 (0.288) Note: Standard parentheses deviation listed in Note: Standard parentheses deviation listed segregation, as the isolation index increases by 0.005. The Isolation Index for Former Confederate states falls by 0.074. It is interesting to note that in 1950 Former Confederate states had an Isolation Index nearly 0.20 greater than Former Union states. So while the two converged between 1950 and 1970, the .4 .6 dism .8 1 Table 6 shows the movement in the isolation index for all 3 geographic areas. Former Border States here show a dramatic decrease of 0.144 in terms of isolation index from 1950 to 1970. Former Union states again show an increase in 0 .2 in .4 .6 .8 isol Figure 7: Isolation and Dissimilarity Indexes – Former Confederate states 144 1 Econometric Approach and Results: high levels of isolation in the South could not be overcome. It is important, however, to keep in mind that the isolation index more or less measures the percentage of a population that is black. With this in mind, the high initial level of isolation in the South could simply reflect more blacks living in the south at that time and the trend over time could merely reflect migration patterns. Since implicit racial tension is hard to quantify, I use a model where two different measures of segregation serve as my dependent variables to try to capture racial division through segregation outcomes, which have been empirically shown to have negative consequences for blacks (Cutler and Glaeser 1997). Figures 7 and 8 are included to map the difference between Former Confederate states and Former Union states. Former Confederate states tend to have a higher Isolation Index relative to their Dissimilarity Index while Former Union states tend to have a higher Dissimilarity Index relative to their Isolation Index. The basic model I employ is a difference-in-difference model where: .4 .5 dism .6 .7 .8 .9 Dissimilarityc,t = β0 + β1*FormerConfederatec + β2*PostCivilRightst + β3*(FormerConfederate*PostCivilRights)c ,t + εit 0 .2 .4 isol .6 Figure 8: Isolation and Dissimilarity Indexes – Former Union states 145 .8 Or dummy and the Post Civil Rights dummy on the Dissimilarity Index. As you can see, none of the coefficients are significant, except for the constant, which is statistically significant at the 1% level. Of note is the fact that there is no sign of the South responding less to the changes from 1950 to 1970 in comparison to the North, as the coefficient corresponds to 3.2% less black people having to move in the South to create an equal distribution relative to the North. Since this coefficient is not statistically significant, it goes against my initial supposition of cities in the former Confederacy responding less favorably to the Civil Rights Movement than Former Union cities. It implies that there is no statistically significant difference between segregation responses across the regions and, if anything, the South improved slightly more than the North did in terms of segregation across this time period. Isolationc,t = β0 + β1*FormerConfederatec + + β2*PostCivilRightst β3*(FormerConfederate*PostCivilRights)c ,t + εit With either segregation index as the dependent variables, the parameter estimate β1 can be interpreted as the ceteris paribus effect that being in the South has on segregation. β2 can be seen as the ceteris paribus effect of moving from 1950 to 1970 on segregation. β3 is the difference-in-difference estimator, the coefficient of interest. It says whether or not the period from 1950-1970 (which was dominated by the Civil Rights Movement as Table 1 shows) affected segregation differently for the South than for other areas. Table 9 shows the regression of the Former Confederate dummy, the Post Civil Rights dummy, and the interaction of the Former Confederate Table 9: Difference-in-difference Estimation for Dissimilarity Coefficient Standard Error 95% Conf. Interval FormerConfederate -0.022 0.016 [-0.053, 0.009] PostCivilRights 0.020 0.015 [-0.009, 0.049] FormerConfederate*PostCivilRights -0.032 0.024 [-0.080, 0.016] Constant 0.745*** 0.009 [0.727, 0.763] 146 Table 10 shows the regression of the Former Confederate dummy, the Post Civil Rights dummy, and the interaction of the Former Confederate dummy and the Post Civil Rights dummy on the Isolation Index. This time, the Former Confederate dummy was statistically significant at the 1% significant level. The coefficient means that a city in a former Confederate state has on average, a 14.8%-point higher level of isolation, ceteris paribus. While this does not say anything about a difference in segregation outcomes across the Civil Rights Movement (as again, the interaction term coefficient is insignificant), it does point to a possible reason for the stereotypical perception of the racist Southerner: there does seem to be historically more racial isolation in the South (in part because of the larger black population). Table 10: Difference-in-difference Estimation for Isolation Index Coefficient Standard Error 95% Conf. Interval FormerConfederate 0.148*** 0.030 [0.090, 0.206] PostCivilRights 0.019 0.028 [-0.035, 0.074] FormerConfederate*PostCivilRights -0.037 0.046 [-0.127, 0.054] Constant 0.017 [0.361, 0.430] 0.395*** With no significant difference-indifference estimates emerging from my initial specification, I added 2 controls to see if my zero result would still hold: Log of Population and Log of Tract Size, with population in millions and tract size equal to the area of the city in square miles divided by number of tracts in year t. size, and Log Population on the Dissimilarity Index. The Former Confederate dummy was statistically significant at the 5% level with a coefficient that corresponds with the South having a 3.1%-point lower level of dissimilarity on average relative to the North, ceteris paribus. Log Tract Size was positive and statistically significant, not surprising considering that smaller tracts seem intuitively more likely to have higher levels of dissimilarity since small neighborhood clusters, which generally are filled with similar residents, carry more weight. Log Population and the Table 11 shows the regression of the Former Confederate dummy, the Post Civil Rights dummy, the interaction of the Former Confederate dummy and the Post Civil Rights dummy, Log Tract 147 constant term were also significant, while the difference-in-difference estimate become even less significant with the addition of the controls. Table 11: Difference-in-difference Estimation for Dissimilarity with Controls Coefficient Standard Error 95% Conf. Interval FormerConfederate -0.031** 0.015 [-0.060, -0.002] PostCivilRights 0.004 0.013 [-0.021, 0.031] FormerConfederate*PostCivilRight s -0.017 0.022 [-0.059, 0.026] Log Tract Size 0.031*** 0.008 [0.016, 0.046] Log Population 0.055*** 0.006 [0.043, 0.068] Constant -0.031*** 0.095 [-0.220, 0.156] Table 12 shows the regression of the Former Confederate dummy, the Post Civil Rights dummy, the interaction of the Former Confederate dummy and the Post Civil Rights dummy, Log Tract Size, and Log Population on the Isolation Index. As in Table 12, the coefficient on the Former Confederate dummy is significant at the 1% level, suggesting that, on average, a city in a former Confederate state has a 17.4%-point higher level of isolation than a state in the North, ceteris paribus. The coefficients on Log Tract Size and Log Population are significant and positive once again. Most interestingly, the difference-indifference estimator is once again statistically insignificant, as it has been for all of the regressions. This suggests that cities from Former Confederate states did not, on average, have different segregation outcomes between 1950 and 1970 relative to cities in Former Union states. 148 Table 12: Difference-in-difference Estimation for Isolation with Controls Coefficient Standard Error 95% Conf. Interval FormerConfederate 0.174*** 0.028 [0.119, 0.229] PostCivilRights -0.009 0.025 [-0.057, 0.040] FormerConfederate*PostCivilRights -0.035 0.041 [-0.116, 0.045] Log Tract Size 0.035 0.015 [0.006, 0.064] Log Population 0.126*** 0.012 [0.102, 0.150] Constant -1.299*** 0.180 [-1.654, -0.945] Discussion The primary problem in making a causal statement about the impact of the Civil Rights Movement across geographic lines is the fact that “racism” is not something that can be measured. Segregation seems to be a reasonable enough proxy for racial tension, and has been shown to be bad for black outcomes (Cutler and Glaeser 1999), but it is also influenced by countless other factors (Bayer 2002) so it is far from perfect. One such other factor is the fact that segregation change is predicated on people changing homes, so while people may be eager to sort in a Tiebout model after hearing the message of Civil Rights, real people do not just up and relocate. Moving is usually driven by some external factor, and once someone has decided to move, then and only then, can that person even begin to think about neighborhood choice. I did not extend my time period, however, because opening up the time series to other decades would open it up to countless other drivers of segregation outcomes. It is fortunate that the Civil Rights The goal of this paper was to see if former Confederate cities responded differently to the Civil Rights movement than Northern cities in terms of segregation outcomes. While I will discuss several reasons why my difference-in-difference estimation method is not flawless in trying to make a causal statement about segregation across the Civil Rights Movement, it is important to consider the possibility that, in the context of my result continually being insignificant from zero, the South responded as well or even more favorably to the Civil Rights message than the North did. It certainly had some ground to make up with regards to racial isolation, so the consistently insignificant and slightly negative coefficients may be close to the truth. What they mean, however, must be put into context. 149 Movement fit nicely in between two Census years, but even so, it would be foolish to think that the Civil Rights Movement would be the sole driver of outcomes even while it was in progress, as things do not happen in a vacuum. was no statistically significant difference in segregation outcomes across the Civil Rights Movement between cities in Former Confederate states and Former Union states. Conclusion Another issue to consider in that same vain is the limited nature of difference-in-difference estimation. Bertrand, Duflo, and Mullainathan (2004) say that most difference-indifference papers should not be trusted because they rely on many years of data and focus on serially correlated outcomes. They claim that almost all these papers ignore the bias in the estimated standard errors that serial correlation introduces, which is especially troubling because the independent variable of interest in difference-in-difference estimation (usually some historical event) is itself very serially correlated, which will only exacerbate the bias in standard errors. To illustrate the severity of the issue, they randomly generated placebo laws (to serve as historical pivot points) and used OLS to compute the difference-indifference estimate of its “effect” as well as the standard error for this estimate. They found the standard errors to be severely biased: with about 20 years of data, difference-in-difference estimation finds an “effect” significant at the 5% level for up to 45% of the laws which, by the nature of the experiment, in reality had no effect. If anything, this bolsters my insignificant finding as the model seems designed to want to find significance in the difference-indifference estimator. In that context, finding a consistently insignificant result seems to conclusively show that there While finding statistical significance is often the goal going into an academic paper, the lack thereof in this paper is perhaps just as interesting. Popular culture and Bertrand, Duflo, and Mullainathan (2004) would seem to suggest a significant difference-indifference estimator emerging, but the data does not agree. There is no clear difference between the change in segregation outcomes between cities in the former Confederacy versus cities in the former Union during a period of great social change and I think that this result is important enough to be considered when we as a culture collectively develop stereotypes based on where someone is from. One takeaway point from this study that I think could be useful for future work is the high level of significance on the Former Confederate variable in the Isolation index regression. It seems that while historical dissimilarity trends are relatively close between the North and South, the South systematically has a higher Isolation Index so it could have potential as an instrumental variable in a future 2SLS model where percentage of a city that is black is not, on its own, suitable as an instrument. Otherwise, I hope this paper can provide some clarity on the murky issue of how this country is still divided along Civil War lines, if it still even is. 150 Works Cited Cutler, D.M., E.L. Glaeser, and J.L. Vigdor. 1999. "The Rise and Decline of the American Ghetto." Journal of Political Economy 107:455-506. Bayer, Patrick, Robert McMillan and Kim Reuben. 2002. "What Drives Racial Segregation? New Evidence using Census Microdata." Working paper. Duncan, Otis Dudley and Duncan, Beverly. 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Beck (2002) ‘‘Race, regional origin, and residence in northern cities at the beginning of the Great Migration.’’ American Sociological Review 67: 456–75. 152 Segregation and Incarceration: How Life in the Ghetto Leads to Life in Prisons for Young Black Men Jess Mawhirt, Class of 2010 This paper seeks to further understand the causes of high crime rates among young black men. I have extended the work of Cutler & Glaeser (1997) who determined that blacks in highly segregated metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) have worse outcomes than blacks in less segregated MSAs. One outcome not included in the study is the likelihood of being incarcerated. By obtaining state-level segregation measures and individual level incarceration data from the U.S. Census (1980-2000), I have determined that there is a correlation between these two measures; that black men age 18-65 who live in more segregated states have a higher probability of being in jail than those living in less segregated states. By using an Instrumental Variable, I can determine that this is in fact a causal relationship. Additionally, I examine the mechanism through which segregation influences life incarceration risks of blacks and how improving these areas can have a significant impact on life-trajectories for young black men. Introduction: disproportionate incarceration of blacks (Hartney, 2006.) Incarceration levels for blacks have increased dramatically in the past few decades to astonishing levels. For a black man, the estimated risk of going to prison at some point in his life is 28.5% while that statistic is only 4.4% for white men (Pettit & Western, 2004.) The percentage of the black male population that is in prison at any given time has been rising faster than any other group (see Figure 1 from the U.S. Department of Justice.) The statistics for black men born between 1965 and 1969 (now ages 41-45) are shocking; 30% of black men without college education and 60% of black men without a high-school education had been to prison by 1999. Only 3% of white men born in that same period had served time by 1999. (Pettit & Western, 2004.) The U.S. in general has staggering incarceration rates; the highest in the world and four times the world average, which is in large part due to The causes and consequences of this trend are extremely important to study and understand. Having a prison record significantly impacts life trajectories, including the ability to find and keep a job. It also further stigmatizes poor and minority individuals and their neighborhoods as being dangerous. In addition, recidivism rates are extremely high; one study finds rates close to 70% within 3 years of release.1 Many studies have suggested that young black men have turned to crime as a result of a lack of education, fewer economic opportunities, lower wages, high returns to criminal activity and social interactions with criminals, (Petit & Western, 2004; Freeman, 1996; Grogger, 1998; Case & Katz, 1991; Glaeser, 1 153 Langan, 2002 Sacerdote & Scheinkman, 1996.) However, it seems plausible that many of these causes could in fact be symptoms of segregation. incarceration risks for black men. I have incorporated an instrumental variable, using a shift-share methodology to predict segregation rates that would occur if people did not move across state borders. This instrumental variable will be necessary to establish a causal relationship. In addition, I have created a mechanism through which this relationship could potentially operate. Through previous studies, I show that segregation leads to low spending on education which leads to low wages and economic opportunities that lead to high crime rates. I show that this mechanism is a plausible explanation for why younger black men from more segregated states are more likely to go to jail than black men from less segregated states. If incarceration rates are higher for black men living in segregated areas than for black men living in less segregated areas, it could be true that segregation is responsible for the above mentioned causes leading to worse outcomes. For examples, lower wages could certainly lead to high crime for any group and in any area, but if lower wages combine with other problems that are specific to segregated areas to create a higher risk of incarceration, then segregation itself could be to blame. In order to explore this thesis, I have formulated a regression to quantify the relationship between segregation and This paper is organized as follows: In the next section I will present the background literature for both 154 incarceration studies and segregation studies. Section three describes the data acquisition and explains the measurements used. Section four describes summary statistics. Section five includes the primary model and the initial results of that model. In section six I discuss the controls and results. In section seven, I discuss the mechanism through which the causal relationship operates and in section eight I conclude the paper. earning potential far exceed the punishments. He argues that because real earnings for the least educated fell significantly from the 1970s to the 1990s, uneducated individuals turned to the drug trade in response to the increased demand for drugs. Incomes from selling drugs or other criminal activity increased relative to legitimate earnings such that youths and adults could easily make $1030 per hour. He argues that the opportunity cost of crime is lower for the uneducated, especially for those growing up in low-income neighborhoods where there is less stigma attached to criminals. He estimates the cost of imprisonment is significant for the rest of society to bear, with an average annual cost per prisoner of $22,000, which could arguably go to better uses if in fact incarceration does not deter crime. Background Literature and Trends There is extensive literature on segregation measurements, trends and consequences as well as incarceration causes, trends and consequences. Much of the crime literature that focuses on race differentials suggest causes that could be particular problems of segregated neighborhoods. Grogger (1998), like Freeman, finds that incentives toward crime are higher when wages are low and that the rising crime rates of youth in the 1970’s and 80’s was probably a response to falling wages during that time period. However, he finds that because blacks earn less than whites, they participate in crime to a greater extent. He argues that the black-white wage gap explains a substantial amount of the differential in crime between blacks and whites. Because blacks earn a lower wage than whites, they have a lower opportunity cost to committing crime in the same way that young people (who earn lower wages than older people) have a lower opportunity cost. Petitt & Western estimate comparative incarceration risks by race, education level, and age (determined by birth year groups.) They calculate the cumulative risk of imprisonment and find that men have a much higher chance of going to jail if they are uneducated, young, and black and briefly discuss the possibility of these findings being related to living in poor urban neighborhoods. They find that a black male high-school drop-out had a 61.8% chance of being either in jail or dead by the age of 34, compared to only 14.0% for white male drop-outs. Freeman (1996) assesses why this might be the case for uneducated men. He finds that the rewards of crime for those who have low skills and low Both Freeman and Grogger are supported by Licher (1988) who finds 155 that underemployment increases in the 1970’s and 80’s for young blacks and whites with low-education. However, this effect is worsened for blacks due to urban racial polarization. In addition, Glaeser, Sacerdote and Scheinkman (1996) find that social interactions play a role in encouraging younger urban individuals to commit crimes, and that the presence of intact family units lessened this effect, suggesting that areas with a prevalence of single-parent or incomplete households might be more susceptible to peer-pressure related criminal behavior among teens and young people. Case & Katz (1991) find similar results; the behavior and examples of older family members have significant impacts on the actions of the youth in terms of criminal behavior, drug abuse, schooling etc. They find that for young people living in neighborhoods where other youths are engaged in criminal activities, the probability of being involved in crime increases. In addition, Massey, Condran and Denton (1987) find that in segregated environments, even higher-income blacks have lower average SAT scores than low-income whites because of the neighborhood effects of being educated in poor schools with less motivated classmates. These studies have shown that many of the attributes we ascribe to segregated areas do in fact cause crime. My study will determine if segregation itself causes crime and incarceration. Massey and Denton (1989) introduce five major ways to conceptualize measure and analyze segregation levels. The five dimensions are evenness, exposure, clustering, centralization and concentration. I will rely on evenness and exposure as they are arguable better measures of segregation. If a region is uneven, some areas have a higher percentage of minority residents than other areas. If it lacks exposure, the chances for people of different races to interact are slim. Massey and Denton find that segregation does exist, that 29% of all urban blacks in the U.S. live in very highly segregated MSAs, including the six most segregated cities, Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. For my purposes, the states that contain these hyper-segregated cities, Maryland, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania should possess higher than average state segregation levels. Cutler and Glaeser (1997) advance the literature by finding that segregation seriously worsens outcomes for blacks. While they consider the positive externalities of ghettos, they conclude that a one-standard deviation reduction in segregation (or a 13% reduction) will eliminate all differences in black and white outcomes, including high school graduation rates, idleness, earnings, and the likelihood of being a single mother. We already know that being a college drop-out can have serious life consequences, including imprisonment, so it is reasonable to conclude that segregation can likely be an indirect cause of incarceration via education levels. I will explore this possibility later. Data Acquisition & Variables I acquired U.S. decennial Census data from 1980, 1990, and 2000 from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples 156 (IPUMS-USA2). The analysis is restricted to men age 18 to 65. I did not include women because they make up a small portion of people in jail or prison, for example, less than 8% in 1997.3 I used the IPUMS variable “race” (general version)” to determine if an individual was black (race=2) or white (race=1). I specifically left out Asians and Hispanics from my data because most (not all) of the previous literature specifies segregation as largely a black problem and because I am predominantly interested in the lifecourse of blacks that can lead to gang violence and imprisonment. Education was measured by the IPUMS variable “yearsed” where the min was 0 years and the max was 17 years. individuals with mental health issues living in prison (283,800 people in 1998) amounted to more than double those living in actual mental health institutions (less than 100,000.)4 On the whole 1,734,900 Americans were in jail or in prison in 1997. If the proportion of those in mental institutions to those in correctional institutions is constant over time, we can assume that those in mental institutions only account for 5% of our group quarters data. Even so, we must keep this in mind when drawing conclusions from the data. State diversity can be measured through ELF (Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalization) (Easterly & Levine, 1997.) ELF ranges from 0 and 1 and in this case measures the probability that two randomly selected individuals in a state belong to different racial groups. In a highly diverse state, ELF is expected to be high and vice-versa. The highest ELF is 0.66 for California in 2000 and the lowest ELF is 0.028 for Vermont in 1980. Because there is no variable in the U.S. Census to indicate whether or not a particular individual is in jail at the time of the census, I used the method used by Borjas, Grogger & Hanson, 2006 to isolate prisoners. The census has a variable for people living in “Group Quarters” (IPUMS variable GQ). These people could be living in college dorms, retirement homes, mental institutions, jail, prison, or other group living arrangements. Borjas, Grogger, and Hanson determine that a person is institutionalized (in a correctional or mental or other type of institution) if gq =2 or 4. (In my data, institutionalized individuals have a gq value of 3 or 4.) It is impossible to determine which of these individuals are in prison or in mental institutions. However, according to the Department of Justice, in the 1990’s, Segregation can be measured through dissimilarity and isolation measures (Massey & Denton, 1988a.) Dissimilarity is a measure of “evenness,” or the degree to which the percentage of minorities in an area equals the percentage of minorities in the larger area. In this study, the variable disb is measured from 0 to 1 and it represents how well the percentage of blacks in the zip codes of a state reflects the percentage of blacks in that state. The following is the equation for dissimilarity used by Massey and Denton. 2 Ruggels, 2010 USDOJ, Correctional Populations of the U.S., 1997 3 4 157 Karaim, 2002 inaccurately represent non-prison populations. (For example, 30.5% of the rural Brown County, IL population is incarcerated. The county appears to be diverse but 99.6% of blacks there were actually transplanted inmates.)5 For these reasons, segregation and incarceration cannot be measured on the zip-code level in my analysis, but must be aggregated to the state level. This causes potential problems. Certain areas of some states might not be segregated at all, while cities in those states can be hyper-segregated. Where t and p are total population and minority proportion of the zip codes and T and P are the same measures for the whole state. Isolation measures “exposure,” or the degree of potential contact between minorities and majorities. In my dataset, the variable isob is measured from 0 to 1 and measures the state average probability that blacks will come into contact with each other. As expected, states with low black populations like Vermont have low isob values. The following is the equation, also from Massey and Denton, for isolation. In addition, it is important to address the possibility of inter-state prisoner transfers. If prisoners are not incarcerated in their home-states, then it would be difficult to draw any conclusions from my models. Due to over-crowding and security-risks, most states can and do choose to transfer a small number of prisoners to other states. There are both regional agreements between states as well as cost-saving contracts between correctional facilities. There are multiple protections and stipulations that must be in place before states can transfer prisoners, for example, they must be considered to be ‘rarely-visited’ or ‘longterm.’ (State restrictions vary, for example, in the state of Alaska, no Alaskan natives can be transferred, and in Ohio, sex offenders and those awaiting execution cannot be transferred.)6 Recently, however, Pennsylvania sent 2,000 prisoners to Michigan and Virginia to ease the severe and extremely expensive over-crowding in its prisons. Where x and t are number of blacks and the total population of zip-code i and where X is the total population of the state. The segregation data was also obtained from the U.S. Census using the method seen in Massey, Denton, 1989. The original race data was obtained by zip-code. However, there is evidence that prisoners are often moved to zip codes other than their zip code of residence. In fact there is increased frustration over the gerrymandering of political districts based on large prison populations. Opponents argue that prisoners (who cannot vote) from largely urban areas are moved to rural area prisons and 5 6 158 Paley, 2010 Biasca, 2006 Figure 2: However, this transfer agreement of only 2,000 people was seen as controversial.7 This is a good indication that large transfers are still rare. Due to restrictions and expenses, the number of inter-state transferred prisoners in 2005 was less than 5,000 men and women nation-wide.8 The total prison population of the U.S. in 2005 was 2,320,359.9 This means that 99.8% of prisoners in 2005 were incarcerated in their home-state, with only 0.2% transferred. With so few inter-state transfers, it is reasonable to assume that the overwhelming majority of prisoners in my sample are in fact incarcerated in their state of residence. over the last 30 years, the average in my sample is 28%. This differential is in fact due to the increased proportion of those in jail that are black. In 1980 only 20.1% of those in jail were black; that number rose to 28.1% in 1990 and 33.7% in 2000, such that the average conceals this important upward trend. (See Figure 2 below) Summary Statistics The average number of years of education is 12.61. The average years of education for whites in the sample is 12.73 years while the average for blacks is 11.72 years, which is a difference of a whole year. Figure 3 shows that educational attainment for all observations (including those not who are not incarcerated) is lower for blacks than for whites. In addition, the pie charts below (Figure 5 & 6) show that of those who are in “jail” in my sample, blacks are less likely to have any education past high school than whites. In fact, 41% of white prisoners had some college education while only 23% of black prisoners did. In addition, 35% of black prisoners were high school drop outs compared to only 20% of whites. My data contains 2,236,017 observations, 2,064,195 of which were either black or white. I dropped 171,822 observations that were of another race. 11.78% of the resulting observations were black and 88.22% were white. There are very revealing differences between whites and blacks in my sample. According to my calculation of the variable “jail,” 4.01% of the observations were in jail; 9.6% of the blacks were in jail compared to 3.3% of whites. In the U.S. in 1997, 34.5% of inmates were black males10, however, 7 Barnes, 2009 Biasca, 2006 9 Harrison & Beck, 2006 8 10 Bureau of Justice Statistics, USDOJ 159 Figure 3: Figure 4: The average age of the individuals in the sample is approximately 39 years old. However, the average age of those in jail was only about 29 years, ten years younger. 59% of my sample is married; however, while 61% of the white population is married, only 39% of the black population is married. In addition, the average state population density is higher for blacks (248.819 people/square mile) than it is for whites (235.101) in my sample. Arizona in 2000 has the lowest measure (0.006) and Illinois in 1980 has the highest (0.65). As I mentioned before, previous work by Massey & Denton has shown that the most segregated cities are located in six states (Maryland, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania). In all years, these six states are in the top thirteen most segregated states when measured by isolation. When measured by dissimilarity, five out of these six states fall into the top nine most segregated states for all three census years; the one exception in all cases being Maryland. Michigan and Illinois, home to Detroit and Chicago, are consistently the top two segregated states when measured by isolation and in the top four when measured by dissimilarity. These results increase my confidence in using these statistics as accurate measures for segregation. The average racial fractionalization (or average state diversity) is 0.38 with the maximum and minimum by state and year being 0.66 for California in 2000 and 0.028 for Vermont in 1980. The average state black-specific dissimilarity (or evenness) is 0.59. The minimum was South Carolina in 1980 at 0.36, while the maximum was Wisconsin in 1980 with a very high 0.82. The average state blackspecific isolation (or exposure) is 0.38. 160 Below, Table 1 shows the dissimilarity data sorted by values for year 2000. Only the 20 most segregated states are shown. The aforementioned six states are highlighted to demonstrate their high levels of segregation. Empirical Model / Initial Findings My first ordinary least squares regression is to see the preliminary relationship between my variables and the probability of going to jail for blacks. I have defined the regression as follows: Jailisy = f(agei, marriedi, yearsedi, blacki, isobsy, disbsy, dropouti, elfsy, popdensitys, y1990, y2000) + random errorijt Table 1: North Dakota Kansas Iowa Maryland Connecticut Minnesota Massachusetts New Jersey Colorado Arkansas Tennessee New York Ohio Nebraska Pennsylvania Indiana Illinois Missouri Michigan Wisconsin Jail originates from group quarters and is defined as I have previously discussed and represents the probability for an individual i living in state s in year y will be incarcerated. The variables age, married, and black are selfexplanatory. Yearsed is 1980 0.711329 0.613902 0.629343 0.553557 0.610418 0.680671 0.668681 0.650763 0.650976 0.59158 0.611998 0.673047 0.692788 0.767836 0.726254 0.722335 0.760745 0.742566 0.763684 0.821375 1990 0.637969 0.582375 0.607512 0.578105 0.583934 0.637085 0.611289 0.621204 0.633571 0.602176 0.625357 0.663504 0.674489 0.713212 0.712848 0.702566 0.72048 0.710704 0.775979 0.812679 2000 0.540646 0.549115 0.550264 0.556451 0.560976 0.578137 0.578235 0.586884 0.599502 0.608947 0.624735 0.643495 0.656717 0.659391 0.674941 0.676884 0.681031 0.706228 0.746995 0.762923 the number of years of education, elf is diversity, isob is isolation of blacks, disb is dissimilarity of blacks, dropout is a dummy variable to control for dropouts, popdensity is a measure of population density per state, and y1990 and y2000 are year dummy variables. The first regression is for both blacks and whites. The second regression is for whites only and the third is for blacks only. Figure 5: In table 2 you see that being black increases your probability of going to jail by 3.9 percentage points. In addition, being older, being married, and having more education make blacks and whites less likely to be in jail. Being a high school dropout makes blacks 3.2 percentage points more likely to be in jail, but being a high school dropout 161 actually makes whites less likely to go to jail. In addition, we see that whites become less likely to be in jail in 1990 and 2000 while blacks and more and more likely. In fact, in 1990, they are 2.2 percentage points more likely and in Table 2 age married yearsed black elf isob disb dropout popdensity y1990 y2000 Observations: R-squared: Adjusted R-squared: *** Significant at 1% level ** Significant at 5% level *Significant at 10% level 2000 4.1 percentage points more likely. This finding is expected because as we have seen from Figure 2, blacks become a higher portion of inmates are the decades progress. White & Whites only Blacks -.0010*** -.0009*** (0.0000) (0.0000) -.0809*** -.0738*** (0.0003) (0.0003) -.0047*** -.0052*** (0.0001) (0.0001) 0.0393*** dropped (0.0001) -.0059*** -.0118*** (0.0011) (0.0010) -.0059*** .0097*** (0.0012) (0.0011) -.0228*** -.0423*** (0.0019) (0.0018) -.0133*** (0.0005) -0.000002*** .0123** (0.006) -.1840*** (0.0063) .0776*** (0.0072) -.0225*** (0.0004) -0.000002*** (0.0000) -.0006*** (0.0003) .0014*** (0.0004) 2,063,910 0.0710 0.0710 (0.0004) -.0034*** (0.0003) -.0038*** (0.0003) 1,843,507 0.0618 0.0618 State diversity makes whites less likely to be in jail while it increases the Blacks only -.0022*** (0.0001) -.1310*** (0.0013) -.0039*** (0.0002) dropped .0315*** (0.0019) .00001*** (0.0000) .0215*** (0.0016) .0411*** (.0017) 220,403 0.0831 0.0831 likelihood for blacks. In addition, blacks living in more dissimilar (more uneven / 162 Segregation by state: Evenness of Blacks Note: more than 0.6 is dark grey, 0.5-0.6 is light grey, and less than 0.5 is white. However, when segregation is measured by isolation (exposure), we see the opposite effect. The problem with isolation is that even if all the blacks in one state live in the same city, they might still be exposed to whites on a regular basis because there are few more segregated) states are 7.8 percentage points more likely to be in jail while whites living in more segregated states are actually 4.2 percentage points less likely to be in jail. This means that dissimilarity of blacks helps whites and hurts blacks. Segregation by State: Isolation of Blacks Note: more than 0.4 is dark grey, 0.25-0.4 is light grey, and less than 0.25 is white. 163 blacks in that state and hence blacks are unable to avoid whites. This explains why some of the less populated and states with lower black populations show up as being somewhat segregated when measured by dissimilarity but not by isolation. In figures 7 and 8 below, you can see that isolation is working more like a proxy for the population of the state that is black. For example, northern cities are notoriously more segregated than southern cities due to historical events such as “The Great Migration” and “white flight,” but the southern states are segregated when measured by isolation and not when measured by dissimilarity. Isolation is still a good measure, in that it in some way controls for the population of blacks in the state, but it will not be as representative of segregation as dissimilarity will be, especially on the state level. Instrumental Variable Any endogenetiy in my results could be caused by reverse causality. The dependent variable (incarceration) could be causally related to one of my covariates (segregation) which would create a case of reverse-causality. For example, it is possibly that high crime rates cause increased incarceration but also cause a fear of living in high crime areas. This could in turn reduce the portion of white and educated people living in a particular area leading to higher segregation indices. However, I find the opposite story more convincing; that segregation leads to limited opportunities that lead to crime and incarceration. As I mentioned above, Table 3 Blacks only/ without IV age -.0022*** (0.0001) married -.1310*** (0.0013) yearsed -.0039*** (0.0002) elf .0123** (0.006) isob -.1841*** (0.0063) disb .0776*** (0.0075) dropout .0315*** (0.0019) popdensity -.00001*** (0.0000) y1990 .0215*** (0.0016) y2000 .0411*** (.0017) Observations: 220,403 Blacks only/ with IV -.0022*** (0.0001) -.1310*** (0.0013) -.0042*** (0.0003) 0.0471** (0.0122) -.2251*** (0.0140) .1822*** (0.0329) .0322*** (0.0019) -.00002*** (0.0000) 0.0218*** (0.0016) .0409*** (0.0017) 220,403 R-squared: 0.0831 Adjusted R- 0.0831 squared: 0.0823 0.0823 there is evidence that segregation originally occurred due to racist zoning and selling of property (Cutler, Glaeser & Vigdor, 1999) thus we can reasonably assume that even though other factors perpetuated segregation levels, the initial cause was probably not incarceration levels or crime rates. However, I will attempt to control for this possibility regardless. To control for endogeneity I have to implement an instrumental variable which is correlated to the explanatory variable (segregation) but not to the 164 dependent variable (incarceration.) The IV that I use is a shift-share IV similar to those used by Card (2001), Ottovani & Peri (2006) and Sparber (2008). interesting to consider why isolation has a negative relationship to incarceration rates. Cutler and Glaeser (1997) suggest that there are some positive effects for blacks from segregation, such as gains from homogeneity, community support, reduced competition with whites and the increased presence of skilled blacks in poor urban areas. They argue that if segregation by race doesn’t also create segregation by skill, blacks will benefit from segregation more than they lose. However, these gains would only come about through isolation from whites. A simple lack of evenness would not produce these effects. Although it is unlikely, it is a possible explanation for why fewer blacks go to jail in states with high isolation. First, we assume that 1970 U.S. demography is exogenous and that each racial group in each zip code grows at its own exogenous rate. Then we can make predictions, based on the 1970 data, about 1980, 1990, and 2000 zip code demographies. Theoretically, those predicted values, which are not actual values, should be correlated with segregation, but not correlated with incarceration rates. To estimate the new model, I have included the dissimilarity-specific instrumental variable (disIV). One omitted variable that could be a problem is income. Income and poverty are highly correlated to the incidence of crime and incarceration as well as segregation levels. However, because incomes for those who are currently in jail are “0” in the census records, it is impossible to know if in fact they were poor when the crime was committed. However, I believe it is reasonable to assume that education levels are correlated to income because children who are poor have a higher opportunity cost of attending school rather than working and brining home income. Because of this, I think it is reasonable to assume that the education variable can be used as a proxy for income to some extent. (1) Jailisy = f(agei, marriedi, yearsedi, blacki, elfsy, disbsy, dropouti, popdensitys, y1990, y2000) + disbIV + random errorijt With the instrumental variable, none of the results have changed significantly, making me confident in the coefficient on my primary measure of segregation (dissimilarity.) In fact, the coefficient on dissimilarity has increased such that now segregation increases the probability that a black man will be in jail by 18.22 percentage points. This means that dissimilarity indeed has a causal relationship to incarceration because the reverse causality bias has been controlled for. However, the new results increase the coefficient on isob and show that living in a state where blacks are more isolated makes them 22.5 percentage points less likely to go to jail. It is Another issue with my model is that there is no way of knowing when the prisoners began their sentences. This is a 165 problem because their presence in prison does not necessarily reflect the segregation levels of their state in the year they committed the crime. This is especially the case for those with longer sentences. For example, if someone committed murder in 1960 and is found in jail in the 2000 census, his crime should be paired with the segregation level of 1960, not 2000. However, there are no clear solutions for this problem. The theory that I will describe and examine is as follows. Segregation is somehow created and perpetuated in the U.S, which in turn lowers expenditure on public goods such as education, which in turn worsens outcomes for blacks living in segregated neighborhoods, which reduces the expected wage and opportunity cost of committing crime, which in turn increases crime and incarceration rates, which eventually has significant impacts on life trajectories for blacks. in midcentury, greater levels of segregation resulted from collective actions on the part of whites to exclude blacks: legitimized forms of discriminations such as restrictive housing covenants and explicit or implicit threats of violence. These factors made blacks pay relatively more for housing in more segregated cities…” By the 1970s, they explain, the average black American lived in a census tract that was 68% percent black. They argue that segregation declined from the 1970s onward but note that while educated blacks moved into more white neighborhoods, “The share of tracts that were at least 90% black doubles in both cities and suburbs.” (Cutler, Glaeser, Vigdor, 1999.) This means that during my time period of study, 1980 to 2000, the existing ghettos became even more concentrated with poorer, less educated minorities as other neighborhoods became more diverse. Once segregation exists, spending on public goods decreases. Alesina, Baqir and Easterly (1999) show that because heterogeneous and polarized societies value public goods less, spending on public goods will be relatively less in segregated cities than in non-segregated cities. They find examples of poor public goods leaving disadvantaged groups even farther behind, like public transportation and schooling. There is evidence that segregation began due to post-civil war migration northward and collective racism leading up to restricted housing options. Cutler, Glaeser and Vigdor (1999) attempt to explain segregation’s origins by testing their theories and they determine that “ The lack of a good quantity and quality of schooling results in poor outcomes. As previously mentioned, Massey, Condran and Denton (1987) find that in segregated environments, high income blacks have lower average SAT scores than low income whites. Discussion Through the use of an instrumental variable, I am able to show that the relationship between segregation and incarceration is not just correlated, but causally related. However, it is useful to consider how this causal link operates. 166 Education is clearly correlated with life income; I find with my own data that one more year of education is associated with a highly significant 17.89 percentage point increase in the census variable “poverty” (which is basically a measure of income up to a certain level.) When wages and incomes are low, people will turn to crime (Grogger, 1998.) young black dramatically. men have increased Because poor beginnings lead to poor life outcomes which again lead to poor beginnings for the next generation, this cycle is important to fix. In addition, high levels of imprisonment remove men from the outside work force, resulting in reduced productivity. There have been some suggestions that are worth noting. Freeman (1996) proposes that the U.S. cannot simply increase the consequences of crimes, or the likelihood of imprisonment if caught, which have clearly risen in the past few decades but been largely disregarded by criminals. He argues for a “carrot as well as a stick” approach, such that economic opportunities must be increased for those with limited educations. This therefore explains the high propensity of crime in segregated areas and the likelihood of being incarcerated. Pettit & Western (2004) argue that being incarcerated has become a life-stage for many young black males in the last 30 years and interrupts the life course. “Persistent offending is more likely for those who fail to secure the markers of an adult life,” like marriage and steady jobs. This significantly affects life trajectories because men who lack those “markers” have difficulty attaining them at a later age. Pettit and Western state that ex-prisoners earn lower wages, are less likely to be married or live with the mothers of their children, and are less likely to get and hold a job due to stigmas against criminals. Case & Katz (1991) show that although bad behaviors and examples are contagious and can increase youth crime, good behaviors and examples can also be contagious. They write, “…shocks or policy interventions that positively affect individuals will have positive multiplier effects within neighborhoods through peer influences and across generations through family influences.” This leaves some room for optimism that perhaps social programs, positive role-models and educational funding can do a lot to reverse this trend. Conclusion In this paper I have established a causal link between segregation and incarceration. I have laid out the mechanism through which this occurs. I have determined that the primary problem resulting from segregation is the lack of a quality education. I have shown the importance of understanding this problem because due to the recent “war on drugs,” the incarceration risks for Works Cited Alberto Alesina, Reza Baqir, and William Easterly (1999) “Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114(4): 1243-1284 167 Andrew Paley, “Census engaged in 'prison-based gerrymandering,' report says” Medill Reports, Northwestern University, (02/04/2010) Retrieved from: http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chi cago/news.aspx?id=155730 Debra Biasca, (2006) “Interstate Transfer of Prison Inmates in the United States” National Institute of Corrections, USDOJ Douglas S. Massey and Nancy A. Denton (1989) “Hypersegregation in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Black and Hispanic Segregation along Five Dimensions” Demography, Vol. 26(3): 373-391 Anne C. Case and Lawrence F. Katz, (1991) “The Company You Keep: The Effect of Family and Neighborhood on Disadvantaged Youth,” NBER Working Paper No. 3705 Douglas S. Massey, Gretchen A. Condran, Nancy A. Denton (1987) “The Effect of Residential Segregation on Black Social and Economic Well-Being” Social Forces, Vol. 66(1): 29-56 Becky Pettit and Bruce Western, (2004) “Mass Imprisonment and the Life Course: Race and Class Inequity in U.S. Incarceration.” American Sociological Review, Vol. 69(2): 151-169 Edward L. Glaeser, Bruce Sacerdote, and Jose A. Scheinkman (1996) “Crime and Social Interactions” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 111(2): 507-548 Chad Sparber, (2008) “Racial Diversity and Aggregate Productivity in U.S. Industries: 1980-2000” Southern Economic Journal George J. Borjas, Jeffrey Grogger, and Gordon H. Hanson (2006) “Immigration and African-American Employment Opportunities: The Response of Wages, Employment, and Incarceration to Labor Supply Shocks” NBER Working Paper No. 12518 Christopher Hartney, “Fact Sheet: US Rates of Incarceration: A Global Perspective.” National Council on Crime and Delinquency (NCCD), November 2006 Jeff Grogger (1998) “Market Wages and Youth Crime” Journey of Labor Economics, Vol. 16(4): 756-791 Daniel T. Lichter (1988) “Racial Differences in Underemployment in American Cities” The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 93(4): 771-792 Patrick A. Langan and David J. Levin (2002) “Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 2004” Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report, USDOJ, NCJ 193427 David M. Cutler and Edward L. Glaeser (1997) “Are Ghettos good or bad” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 112(3): 827-872. Paige M. Harrison and Allen J. Beck (2006) “Prisoners in 2005” Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin, USDOJ, NCJ 215092 David M. Cutler, Edward L. Glaeser, and Jacob L. Vigdor (1999) “The Rise and Decline of the American Ghetto” The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 107 (3): 455-506 Reed Karaim, “Special Report: Housing First, People with Mental Illness” NPR, 168 2002 Retrieved from: http://www.npr.org/news/specials/housi ngfirst/whoneeds/mentallyill.html Richard B. Freeman (1996) “Why Do So Many Young American Men Commit Crime and What Might We Do About It?” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 10(1): 25-42 Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2010 Tom Barnes, “Pa. will transfer 2,000 inmates to Va., Mich.” Pittsburgh PostGazette, (12/22/2009) Retrieved from: http://www.postgazette.com/pg/09356/1022675-454.stm 169 The Effects of Taurine and Caffine Alone and in Combination on Locomotor Activity in the Rat Marissa Dombovy-Johnson, Class of 2010 Background Information History of Energy Drinks Energy drinks were first marketed in Europe and Asia in the 1960’s, but they did not reach the United States market until the 1980’s. Red Bull, the leader of energy drink sales since its introduction, was created by Dietrich Mateschitz and released in Austria in 1987 and in the United States ten years later (Ressig, Strain, and Griffiths, 2009). By 2006 there were over 500 brands worldwide (Johnson, 2006) and approximately 31% of American teens consumed energy drinks (Lord, 2007). In 2008 the leaders in the energy drink market were Red Bull, Monster, Rockstar, and AMP. They had 40, 23, 12.3, and 8 percent of the sales, respectively (Energy Fiend, 2007). energy gets you focused and ready for everything life throws at you each day,” according to each of their websites (AMP Energy, 2010; Red Bull, 2010). The ingredients in energy drinks are designed to create activating effects on the human body. The most common ingredients found in energy drinks are ginseng, taurine, caffeine, glucose, Bvitamins, and glucuronolactone. Each energy drink is unique in its combination of ingredients; however, caffeine and taurine are present in all of the above mentioned energy drinks. Glucuronolactone and glucose are present in Monster and Red Bull, ginseng in AMP, while B-vitamins are in Red Bull and AMP (Amp Energy, 2010; Monster Energy Drink, 2010; Red Bull, 2010; Rockstar, 2010). Energy drinks, unlike their caffeine counterparts, coffee and soda, were associated with the emerging lifestyle of action/extreme sports (Ho, 2006). They are marketed towards those wanting increased alertness and energy, particularly in athletic endeavors. Thus today’s youth, especially young males, have become the target for energy drink companies. Miller (2008) surveyed undergraduate students in 2008 and found that masculinity and risk taking behaviors were positively correlated with energy drink consumption. Red Bull “vitalizes body and mind,” while “AMP The above ingredients are included because of proven or hypothesized effects of increased alertness, stimulation, and energy (Clauson, Shields, McQueen, and Persad, 2008). Glucose, which is a monosaccharide, is the main source of energy in the human body. In addition to providing energy, glucose has been found to enhance memory, and concentration (Clauson et al., 2008). Panax ginseng 170 grows naturally and has been used to prevent fatigue, liver disease, amnesia, and colds. It has been suggested that has immuno-modulating activity and can enhance mental capacity (Kiefer and Pantuso, 2003). B-vitamins include a wide variety of vitamins, such as folate, B12, and B6. Deficiencies in B-vitamins can lead to impaired neurological and psychological functioning (Selhub, Bagley, Miller, and Rosenberg, 2009). A naturally occurring substance in the body, glucuronolactone is believed by energy drink manufacturers to detoxify the body. However, no studies have studied this (Kim, 2003). Taurine, an essential amino acid that is not used to build proteins (Birdsall, 1998), has many different effects, possibly because of its interaction at the GABA, glycine, and “unknown” taurine receptors (Ramanathan, Chung, Giacomini, and Brett, 1997; El Idrissi et al., 2008). This amino acid’s best known role involves the synthesis of taurine bile acid conjugates (Clauson et al., 2008). However, its function in improving activity level and mental performance has been controversial. The last main ingredient is caffeine, which stimulates the central nervous system, heart, and skeletal muscle, and has a diuretic effect (Clauson et al., 2008). maybe due to its suggested stimulant effects or, when combined with caffeine it further increases the stimulant properties of caffeine. However, Whirley and Einat (2008) concluded that taurine’s stimulant properties were hypothetical because they failed to find increased activity in mice. However, they studied taurine alone and not in combination with caffeine, thus further research is needed to verify this possibility. Furthermore, Zeratsky (2008) states that athletic and maybe mental performance is increased by the interaction of taurine and caffeine. If caffeine and taurine acted in a synergistic way then it would support their dual inclusion in energy drinks. In this study I examined whether or not the locomotor activity of a rat, as measured by the number of rotations in a rodent wheel and activity in the open field test, increased in the presence of combined taurine and caffeine, when compared to taurine or caffeine alone or control saline. As well as measuring activity, the open field test is also useful in evaluating anxiety, a potentially detrimental side effect of caffeine. Before stating the details of this experiment, research involving taurine and caffeine alone and in combination will be further examined. Caffeine As shown above, the ingredients found in energy drinks have separate potentially different effects on the brain and body. As these effects are likely to interact, the effects of ingesting an energy drink are likely due to the combined interaction of these substances on the brain and body systems. The inclusion of taurine in energy drinks Caffeine, the most commonly used psychoactive substance, is believed by most researchers to cause the increase in energy, memory and alertness associated with energy drinks. Caffeine is a competitive A1 and A2 adenosine receptor antagonist (Hughes, McHugh, and Holtzman, 1998; Smit and Rogers, 171 2000; Angleucci, Cesário, Hiror, Rosalen, and Da Cunha, 2002; Karcz-Kubicha et al., 2003). Adenosine slows down neural activity and, by preventing this inhibitory effect, caffeine stimulates brain activity (Rao, Hu, and Nobre et al., 2005). The A1 adenosine receptors are expressed in the cerebral cortex, while the A2 receptors are present in the hippocampus and the striatum (Angleucci et al., 2002). Angelucci et al. (2002) reported that acetylcholine (ACh) release is inhibited by activating the A1 receptor, thus caffeine positively impacts memory storage. Motor activity is believed to be regulated by adenosine’s interaction with both the A1 and A2 receptors (KarczKubicha et al., 2003). Synder, Katims, Annau, Bruns, and Daly (1981) showed that the A1 receptors mediated the motor-activity effects of caffeine. However, later studies have determined the A2 receptors as the cause of the activity increase (Ferré, Fuxem von Euler, Johansson, and Fredholm, 1992). high doses of caffeine. The timing of the dosing was another important finding because the rats who received caffeine after training experienced more of an impact on memory than those who received it before training, implying a possible effect on memory consolidation. Enhancement in memory and other higher level cognitive functions possibly results from caffeine’s antagonism by enhancing cholinergic release (Smit and Rogers, 2000). Numerous past studies have been conducted on caffeine’s effects both alone or in association with other energy drink ingredients. Scholey and Kennedy (2004) found improved memory and speed in attention tests, but no other mood or cognitive effects, when humans drank a mixture of caffeine, glucose, and herbal flavoring fractions. Similarly, Kennedy and Scholey (2004) found that after cognitive demand, a caffeine and glucose drink improves cognitive performance and decreases fatigue. Increased behavioral performance in a selective-attention task, specifically improved accuracy and reaction times, was discovered after individuals consumed a caffeine, glucose drink (Rao et al., 2005). These researchers postulate that caffeine and glucose, the major source of energy in the body, may interact in a synergistic way. Various studies (Johnson, Spinweber, and Gomez, 1990; Rusted, 1999; Walburton, 1995) found increased alertness after caffeine was administered. Frewer and Lader (1991) and Fine et al. (1994) replicated the findings that caffeine has beneficial effects on psychomotor speed and vigilance. The ingestion of caffeine has many effects on the human body. This substance helps prevent fatigue (Smit and Rogers, 2000), decreases reaction time (Clubley, Bye, Henson, Peck, and Riddington, 1979; Lieberman, Wurtman, Emde, Roberts, and Coviella, 1987; Kerr, Sherwood, and Hindmarch, 1991), facilitates memory attention and stimulates the heart, and voluntary muscle (Angleucci et al., 2002). Angleucci et al. (2002) found that the effects of caffeine are dose related, with peak stimulating effects occurring at moderate doses. Behavioral activity, learning, and memory were actually suppressed when rats were administered 172 (Whirley and Einat, 2008). High levels of this amino acid can be found in the cerebral cortex, basal ganglia, hippocampus, hypothalamus, cerebellum, and the caudate-putamen (Olive, 2002; El Idrissi et al., 2008; Whirley and Einat, 2008). In order to reach the brain, taurine must cross the blood-brain-barrier by way of a sodium and chloride dependent carrier (Benrabh, Bourre, and Lefauconnier, 1995). As mentioned above, caffeine has been found to be a competitive adenosine antagonist and have dose related effects. Karcz-Kubicha et al. (2003) found that administering caffeine acutely produced motor-activating effects by blocking both the A1 and A2a receptors. Despite being an antagonist of both adenosine subtypes, Ferré et al. (1992) determined that the A2a receptors are responsible for the motor-activating effects of caffeine in rodents. Therefore, they may also be the cause for decreased reaction times experienced by humans after caffeine ingestion. Past research has shown positive effects on arousal when lower doses of caffeine were used (12.5100mg) (Smit and Rogers, 2000, 2002; Smit, Cotton, Hughes, and Rogers, 2004), while a dose of 500mg produces negative effects by impairing performance on tests of attention and vigilance (Frewer and Lader, 1991). The best interpretation of the above literature review is that caffeine exerts stimulant effects in a dose-dependent manner. Taurine Taurine has been found to impact many different biochemical actions (Huxtable, 1992), thus it has been difficult to locate the exact taurine receptors. It can act as a trophic factor and inhibitory modulator (Chepkova, Sergeeva, and Hass, 2005), a neuroprotectant (Kim, 2003), as well as playing a role in detoxification, membrane stabilization, and osmoregulation (Birdsall, 1998; Imagawa et al., 2009). Taurine levels were altered in some patients with neuropsychiatric illness, suggesting a possible use as medication. In addition it already has been used to treat people with seizure disorders (Whirley and Einat, 2008). Taurine is the most abundant amino acid in many tissues and, most importantly, in the brain’s extracellular fluid (Birdsall, 1998; Olive, 2002). Cysteine sulfinic acid decarboxlyase (CSAD) synthesizes taurine from cysteine (Olive, 2002). Since it is not incorporated into proteins (Birdsall, 1998), taurine is found free in tissues, for example the brain and muscles (Whirley and Einat, 2008). The consumption in food and synthesis by astrocyctes are the main ways taurine enters the body Since taurine is structurally similar to GABA, it may mimic GABA’s effects in enhancing chloride ion flux or possibly displace the agonists associated with the GABAa receptor complex (Olive, 2002). Furthermore, its interaction with GABA receptors, as well as glycine, cholinergic, and adrenergic receptors, may provide support for its role in stress, mood, and behavior (El Idrissi et al., 2008). The interaction at GABA receptors is important for taurine’s anxiolytic effect because 173 anxiolytic drugs interact at the same receptor (Whirley and Einat, 2008). Similar to taurine’s use in treating people with seizure disorders, its interaction at GABA receptors demonstrate is sedative effect when used alone. However, when combined with caffeine it may interact in a synergistic way to further increase caffeine’s stimulant properties. Other behavioral studies have produced conflicting results regarding taurine’s role in locomotor activity as measured through the open-field test. Baskin et al. (1974) found a dosedependent decrease in activity following i.p. injections of taurine (0.3-3.0 mg/kg). Similarly, Sanberg and Ossenkopp (1977) found that increasing doses of taurine (25-200 mg/kg) decreased ambulation in rats, with doses greater than 50 mg/kg causing a significant decrease. Mice exhibited the same decrease in activity following i.p. injections (Hruska, Thut, Huxtable, and Bressler, 1975). Contradictory to the Sanberg and Ossenkopp’s (1977) finding, Kong et al. (2006) found that a dose of 126 mg/kg increased the number of times a rat entered the center during the open field test. Comparable to Kong et al.’s finding, Imagawa et al. (2009) found an increase in endurance performance following two weeks of taurine administration. Possible explanations for these differences could be environmental conditions, duration of administration, and age of the animals. Higgins, Jones, and Oakley (1992) and Serrano et al. (2002) have stated that environmental conditions and the age impact the way taurine interacts in the rodent body. El Idrissi et al. (2008) found that the way taurine was administered, either injected (43 mg/kg) or supplemented in drinking water, resulted in suppressed or increased locomotor activity, respectively. The injection produced an anti-anxiety effect, while supplementation induces the opposite effect, anxiety. In another study in mice, Whirley and Einat (2008) gave two different doses of taurine that were significantly higher than the amounts in energy drinks. However, they stated that mice, when compared to humans, are given higher doses of drugs due to metabolism differences. Since the high doses had no significant stimulant effects, they speculated that lower doses maybe more effective. Furthermore, they only tested taurine, and other research implies a possible synergistic effect with caffeine. Even though they found that sub-chronic or chronic administration did not have a stimulant effect, they saw an initial reduction in locomotor activity, which is typical of other stimulants, followed by an increase in activity. They propose that this may be due to taurine affecting different pathways. After analysis of their findings and past research, they consider the claim of taurine as a stimulant to be speculative and further research is needed. Caffeine and Taurine As energy drinks often contain caffeine and taurine it is vital to examine past research involving the combination. Many researchers have looked at the impact of Red Bull, which contains caffeine and taurine, in humans. Alford, Cox, and Wescott (2001) found that a 174 Red Bull energy drink caused increased diastolic blood pressure, aerobic endurance and anaerobic performance. The observed increase in blood pressure may suggest an interaction between taurine and caffeine because taurine is an antihypertensive, thus opposing the caffeine mediated increase in both the diastolic and systolic blood pressure. No effect on short term recall memory in college students was found after they ingested a Red Bull drink (Birchler, Swenson, and Harris, 2006). The heart rate in subjects was decreased, and cardiac stroke volume was increased (Baum and Weis, 2001). Baum and Weis (2001) suggested that the increase in ventricular function in young athletes may be due to the combined effects of caffeine and taurine. However, these effects may also be due to caffeine, since they did not look at that substance alone. performance in mice. In addition, their results also show that caffeine and taurine use for two weeks had an additive effect, when compared to both substances alone and to administration for only a week. Therefore, the duration of administration could be essential to caffeine’s and taurine’s effects in energy drinks. The research on the components of energy drinks is very limited. Since the literature suggests a possible synergistic effect between taurine and caffeine on causing the increased alertness and faster processing associated with energy drinks, it is important to study this in further detail. Based on past research I hypothesize that rats will display increases in locomotor activity after an injection caffeine alone and an additive effect when caffeine and taurine are combined. Walburton, Bersellini, and Sweeney (2001) looked at a glucose, caffeine, and taurine drink and discovered that information processing increased after consumption of caffeine and taurine. Glucose was not included because there was no difference between the control drinks, one sugar (glucose) free and the other with just glucose. However, similar to the Baum and Weis (2001) study, caffeine was only looked at in association with taurine, therefore it could be caffeine’s effect alone. Methods Animals Adult male Sprague-Dawley rats raised at Colgate University weighing 472-578g (avg. 514g) at the beginning of the experiment were used. The rats were born in either February or March 2009 making them an average of a year old during the experiment. The animals were housed on a 12hr light/dark cycle (lights on at 08:00) at 22ºC ± 1ºC with food and water available ad libitum, except from the time of the injection until the beginning of the exercise wheel. The rats were housed in cages (47 X 26 X 20 cm) with the same cagemates during the duration of the experiments. The cages were switched every week to allow the Imagawa et al. (2009), as far as I know, were the only study to examine the effect of taurine and caffeine, alone and in combination, on performance. They found that taurine use for two weeks significantly increased endurance 175 Exercise Wheel rats to receive equal distribution of light. After the habituation period, which will be explained in the procedure subsection, the rats were broken into four groups: control (C), taurine (T), caffeine (F), and taurine and caffeine, the combined group (B). The experiments and treatments were approved by Colgate University’s Animal Care Committee. The exercise wheel consists of a rodent wheel containing an automated counting device secured to a plastic storage bin covered with bedding and supplied with water and food. Thus, while in the wheel, each full rotation was automatically recorded. Procedure Drugs Twenty four rats went through three 16-hr habituation periods (which included their active period) in the exercise wheels before the experiment began in order to choose twelve that ran an average of 5 complete spins. Rats that never ran or ran over 15 times in any habituation period were eliminated. After the habituation period, the twelve rats chosen experienced each treatment group. In order to prevent order effects, the rats were divided into the four groups described above with three rats in each. Thus, each rat went through four trials, one for each treatment group. There was at least 36 hours in between injections on the same rat. The open field test began thirty minutes after the injection, which occurred in the same room as the open field. The interval of 30-min was chosen because methylxanthine, a metabolite of caffeine formed in the liver, has a half-life of 0.71.2 hr in rats, compared to 2.5-4.5 hr for humans (Morgan, Stults, and Zabik, 1982). Taurine has a longer full body halflife at 18.6 days (Huxtable, 2000). If a longer duration was chosen, then caffeine would be mostly metabolized, thus the results would not display an accurate portrayal of caffeine’s effects. Taurine (cell culture tested), 2aminoethanesulfonic acid, and caffeine, 1,3,7-trimethylxanthine, were purchased from Aldrich Supply Company. The average weight of 514g was used as the weight multiplied by the drug dose, which was 50 mg/kg taurine and 30 mg/kg caffeine. After the drugs completely dissolved, 1mL aliquots were transferred to twelve 1mL micro-vials and frozen until needed. This ensured that the doses were as equal as possible. All of the drugs were injected intraperitoneally (i.p.) in a 1mL amount 30 min before the open field test. Control rats received an i.p. injection of 1 mL of 0.9% NaCl and the combined group received the same amount of both drugs. Open-field Apparatus A rectangular (105 X 90 cm) open field divided into 42 equally sized squares (15 X 15 cm) with a plexiglass floor and 28 cm high walls was used. A video camera was positioned above the arena, high enough to cover just the field. 176 Statistical Analysis Furthermore, past research using the open-field test waited thirty minutes after the injection before beginning the experiment (Kong et al., 2006; Whirley and Einat, 2008).The rats were placed in the center to start and were videotaped for ten minutes, after which they were placed in the exercise wheel for four hours. The open-field was cleaned after each rat with 70% ethanol to remove any odor traces. The open field test was analyzed for total number of squares entered with all four paws, number of rears (forelegs raised from the floor or against the wall), total duration of grooming (total time in seconds spent grooming; considered as any time the paws are touching fur or whiskers), and percentage of perimeter squares entered compared to the middle squares (rats usually move around by hugging the walls with one side of their body). Perimeter squares were considered the squares that directly bordered a wall. Videotapes were later scored by 3 observers blind to the treatments, allowing an average of the 3 to be used for each trial (every rat went through 4 trials, one for each drug). See figure 1 for the sheet used by the observers. After the open field, the rats were immediately placed into an exercise wheel in an adjacent room for 4-hrs. At the end of the 4-hrs, the number of rotations were recorded and the rat was returned to its original cage in the housing room. All the behavioral experiments occurred during the hours of 10:00 and 16:00h, besides the habituation period, which occurred during a 16-hour window encompassing their active period. Results are reported as means ± SEM. Data were analyzed by means of repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA). Whenever the ANOVA was significant, further multiple comparisons were made using the paired t-test. All analyses were performed using the software SPSS V16.0 for windows. The level of statistical significance adopted for the ANOVA was P < 0.05, while for the paired t-test it was P < 0.0083, which corresponds to the Bonferroni correction for 6 pair-wise comparisons. Results Open Field Test Table 1 shows the complete data for the open field test and the exercise wheel. The results only include the data from ten of the twelve rats. One rat died after receiving only two drugs, while the other suffered a hematoma after the injection, thus did not participate in one trial. Therefore, in order to make sure the results were from rats that experienced all the drugs, the data for these two rats were eliminated. The results for the open field test are also shown in figure 2. The ANOVA for total squares showed a significant druginduced effect [F (3,27) = 12.9, P < 0.05]. The paired t-test showed a significant difference when the combined group of taurine and caffeine was compared to the control [t (10) = 6.9, P < 0.0083] and taurine groups [t (10) = 5.8, P < 0.0083]. Caffeine showed a tendency to increase the number of squares entered when compared to the control [t (10) = 3.2, P < 177 0.05] and taurine groups [t (10) = 2.6, P < 0.05]. There was no significant difference between the number of squares entered for the combined group when compared to caffeine [t (10) = 0.9, P > 0.0083]. Both taurine and saline have no significant effect on the locomotor activity, as shown through total squares entered. taurine’s stimulant properties has produced conflicting results possibly due to large differences in the dosages used (Sanberg and Ossenkopp, 1977; Kong et al., 2006). Examination of their combined effect has been sparse with the majority finding an increase in activity (Alford et al., 2001; Walburton et al., 2001). Only one study to my knowledge has considered the drugs in combination, as well as alone. In this study, Imagawa et al. (2009) found that taurine and caffeine had an additive effect on endurance. Figure 2 shows the results for the number of rears. The repeated measures ANOVA showed a significant druginduced effect [F (3,27) = 5.54, P < 0.05]. The use of a paired t-test showed that both the caffeine and combined groups had a tendency to increase the number of rears when compared to the control and taurine groups [P < 0.05]. No pairings showed a significant difference. Based on past research and conflicting data, the present study was designed to evaluate the potential stimulant interaction caffeine and taurine may have. The open-field test and the exercise wheel were chosen as the apparatuses because of their ability to show multiple behaviors at once. For grooming [F (3,27) = 2.8, P > 0.05] and the percentage of outer squares [F (3,27) = 2.9, P > 0.05] the ANOVAs failed to show a significant difference among treatment groups. One dose each of caffeine and taurine were tested, 30 and 50 mg/kg, respectively. These dosages were chosen based on previous research (Sanberg and Ossenkopp, 1977; Smit and Rogers, 2000, 2002; Smit et al., 2004; Kong et al., 2006). Both of these doses are higher than the ones contained in a typical energy drink. An 8.0 oz can of Rockstar contains 80mg caffeine and 1000mg taurine, thus for a 70kg person the doses would be 1.14 and 14.3 mg/kg, respectively. Even though these doses are significantly greater, it is typical for rats to be given greater amounts because they metabolize the drugs at a faster rate (Einat, Yuan, and Manji, 2001). Exercise Wheel There was no significant difference among treatment groups for the exercise wheel data [F (3,27) = 0.78, P > 0.05]. Discussion The interaction of caffeine and taurine has not been a well studied in past research, despite their presence together in energy drinks. Past research has concluded that caffeine alone increases alertness (Smit and Rogers, 2000) and decreases reaction time (Clubley et al., 1979). Past research on 178 The open-field test, ever since its introduction by Calvin Hall in the 1930’s, has been one of the most common apparatuses used to study rat behavior because of the various measures one is able to analyze after one trial in the field (Walsh and Cummins, 1976). In this study, the open-field was used to assess how four different behaviors were affected by saline, taurine, caffeine, and both drugs. The behaviors considered were total squares entered or total locomotion, rearing, grooming, and percentage of perimeter squares entered. reached significance [F (3,27) = 5.54, P < 0.05], but none of the pairwise comparisons were statistically different (P < 0.0083). However, there was a tendency for the combined and caffeine groups to increase the number of rears when both were compared to control and taurine groups. As with total locomotion, there was no significant difference between the combined and caffeine groups. Grooming has long been seen as an anxiogenic, or anxious response (Choleris, Thomas, Kavaliers, and Prato, 2001; Nosek et al., 2008). In other words, when a rat grooms itself, it is anxious. Stimulants, such as caffeine, have been found to promote an anxious state, thus the total time of grooming would be expected to be the highest from the combined and caffeine groups. Despite there not being a significant difference between the different groups [F (3,27) = 2.8], caffeine’s average was the highest amongst the 4 groups (65.3 ± 22.8). Total locomotion is an important factor for determining whether or not a substance causes a stimulant effect because stimulants increase activity. The opposite of locomotion is called freezing and it coincides with high amounts of stress (Walsh and Cummins, 1976). If caffeine and taurine interact in a synergistic way to strengthen caffeine’s stimulant properties, then the total locomotion (total squares entered) experienced by this group would be greater than for any of the other groups. The finding that the combined administration of caffeine and taurine produced a significant increase in locomotion when compared to the control and taurine groups, suggests that caffeine and taurine somehow interact. However, there was no difference between the results of the combined group versus caffeine alone. Rearing, like total locomotion, is another measure of activity specifically, excitability (Walsh and Cummins, 1976). When the rat is less anxious, they are more likely to explore the open-field. Rearing is a way for them to explore vertically. The ANOVA The last measure of the open-field test was the percentage of perimeter squares entered. Rats are typical wallhuggers because it allows them to not enter open and dangerous spaces (Wilson et al., 1976). Thus, when they are placed into the open-field rats remain in close proximity to the walls. When rats travel away from the perimeter of the open-field it is normally because they are not as anxious and feel more comfortable exploring the remaining field (Lister, 1990). The ANOVA for the percentage of perimeter squares entered failed to reach significance [F (3,27) = 2.9]. 179 The exercise wheel is a measure of activity because the rat has free access to the wheel. Before the experiment began, the rats went through three habituation periods in order to become acquainted with surroundings and figure out how to work the wheel. The ANOVA failed to show any statistically significant difference among groups for the exercise wheel data [F (3,27) = 0.78]. This could be due to the fact that all of the rats ran very little, thus making comparisons difficult. Reasons for the lack of running in the exercise wheel could include the nocturnal nature of rats (i.e. rats are more active at night). The rats chosen ran an average of 1.5-8.5 spins during the habituation period, which encompassed their active period. However, when the rats were placed into the exercise wheel after the open-field test, they were in there for a 4-hr period that was during their normal sleep time. Furthermore, the rats only experienced the exercise wheels three times before the experiment, so it is possible that further habituation time could have led to more spins during the experiment. synergistic effect does indeed happen and at what doses. Second, the rats used in this experiment were around 12 months old, which brings in the issue of age. Most experiments use rats that are younger because as they get older their activity levels are not as high. Future research should use a group of rats that are younger, in order to produce more accurate results. In addition to activity levels, many drugs exert different effects depending on the age of the test animals (Serrano et al., 2002). In addition, the data was only from ten rats, which is a very small sample size. Larger samples tend to increase the likelihood of finding a significant difference. The caffeine treatment group had high variability, specifically for the total number of squares entered. The standard deviation for this measure was 96.79. Therefore, if the rats were grouped based on their response to caffeine (little response, average, high response) and then compared to the control, there might have been a significant difference. A significant difference between the high response group and control would most likely occur. Increasing the sample size, as mentioned above, will help to diminish the variability amongst treatment groups. There are limitations of the present study. First, there was only one dose of each drug used, which raises a possibility that different amounts of caffeine and taurine could have an additive effect. The best way to determine this would be to replicate the study, but add a lower and higher dose of each drug, in addition to the one used. Even though this proposal will dramatically increase the number of pairing between the drugs, it will allow a detailed analysis to better conclude if a Each rat experienced all four conditions, thus experienced the openfield on four separate occasions, which allows the rat to habituate to the field. The more the rat experiences the openfield, more the locomotion tends to decrease (Walsh and Cummins, 1976). 180 The procedure used in this experiment corrected for this habituation by each group experiencing the different treatments in a varied order, thus eliminating order effects. the drugs, and longer habituation periods in the exercise wheel). This study provides results that justify the inclusion of caffeine in energy drinks, but does not provide evidence for a synergistic relationship between caffeine and taurine. 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Test Open Field Exercise Wheel Measure Total Sqaures (4 paws) Rears (front paws off floor) Grooming Time (secs) % of Perimeter Squares Total Rotations Control (mean±SEM) Taurine (mean±SEM) Caffeine (mean±SEM) Combined (mean±SEM) 63.7 ± 12.4 76.2 ± 17.9 168.1 ± 30.6 191.8 ± 15.8*, # 7.4 ± 1.9 7.9 ± 1.3 13.5 ± 2.0 14.6 ± 2.2 16.7 ± 4.1 38.2 ± 8.8 65.3 ± 22.8 25.6 ± 4.5 96.7 ± 1.6 92.7 ± 1.7 94.8 ± 1.3 91.5 ± 1.7 0.1 ± 0.1 0.5 ± 0.3 0.7 ± 0.4 0.3 ± 0.2 Table 1: Mean Values For Total Squares, Total Rears, Cleaning Time, % of Perimeter Squares, and Total Rotations. Taurine (50 mg/kg), caffeine (30mg/kg), combined (same amounts), or control (0.9% saline) was injected 30 min prior to the start of the open field test. * P < 0.0083 (Bonferroni correction) combined group vs. control. # P < 0.0083 combined group vs. taurine. Repeated measures ANOVA followed by paired t-test. n = 10. 187 *, # A. Total Squares Entered B. Total # of Rears C. Total Duration of Grooming D. % of Perimeter Squares Figure 2: Effect of taurine (50 mg/kg), caffeine (30 mg/kg), control, and the combined treatment groups on rat behavior in the open-field test: (A) the total number of squares entered; (B) the total number of rears; (C) the total duration of grooming; (D) the percentage of perimeter squares entered. All drugs were injected 30 min prior to the start of the open-field test. Results are expressed as mean ± SEM. Significant differences: compared to control * P < 0.0083; compared to taurine # P < 0.0083. n = 10. 188 Measuring the Persistence of Output Shocks: A Study of Output Behavior using ARMA and Monte Carlo Methods By Michael LoFaso, Class of 2010 This paper examines whether output fluctuations are better characterized as shocks with measurable and persistent effects or transitory deviations from macroeconomic growth trends. Building on the work of Nelson and Plosser [1982) and Campbell and Mankiw [1987), the paper employs ARMA and Monte Carlo techniques to provide robust evidence for the persistence of shocks. After accounting for the Great Moderation period of the late 20th century, the models suggest that the magnitude and volatility of impulse responses are comparable, yet slightly smaller than Campbell and Mankiw’s findings. When applied to the economic crisis beginning in 2007, the paper’s findings of persistence suggest that the shock will affect economic growth into the foreseeable future, with output levels remaining below potential capacity well into the next decade. Introduction In recent months, the health and stability of the economy has vaulted to the forefront of national issues, garnering vast media, public, and governmental attention. Needless to say, sorting through and understanding the many potential factors and events affecting the economy are of great interest to economists, government officials, and citizens alike. While the short-term effects of the economic slowdown have unquestionably caused a number of difficulties for Americans, in order to fully understand the current economic environment, it is important to understand how the recent shocks to the United States economy fit within the larger scope of business cycles and domestic economic growth. and persistent effects on the long-term health of the economy. The paper’s primary focus will not be to solve a longstanding debate regarding the existence of a unit root in the output process, but rather to construct quantitative measures persistence. In order to explore the question of persistence, the paper will analyze United States GDP data with several autoregressive and moving average processes to determine whether or not macroeconomic shocks demonstrate persistent and measurable effects. Building on the work of Nelson and Plosser (1982) and Campbell and Mankiw (1987), the main contributions of this paper will be to: (1) quantitatively measure the impact and persistence of economic shocks using a stationary ARMA model of the differences in log GDP, (2) use a Monte Carlo procedure to The goal and objective of this paper will be to examine whether shocks to the economy represent temporary deviations from macroeconomic growth trends, or, if the shocks have measurable 189 forecast future prospects of economic growth in light of the current and significant GDP shock, and (3) discuss alternative theoretical interpretations of persistence. consistent with the Congressional Budget Office’s projections for economic recovery. Lastly, we conclude with a discussion about interpretations of persistence in light of the paper’s findings. The paper will begin by discussing relevant time series topics, including issues of stationarity, autoregressive integrated moving average models, and unit roots. We will then focus specifically on trend vs. difference stationary techniques for measuring the persistence of fluctuations. In this section of the paper we show that an estimation of the change in log GDP as a stationary ARMA process is consistent with a variety of statistical processes in the level of GDP, while it also leaves open the possibility that output fluctuates around a deterministic trend. Time Series Theory and Approaches When we analyze time series data our first consideration is whether or not our variables demonstrate stationarity. Regressions using time series data are different than regressions using solely cross-section data mostly because they might include dynamics: explanatory variables and/or random shocks might have effects that persist and there might be systematic or stochastic trends. We then turn to a literature review that discusses business cycle theory and previous studies that have tested for unit roots and the persistence of shocks. The next section presents results for our statistical models, providing evidence that shocks remain persistent into the long-run horizon. However, the models also suggest that the magnitude of and volatility of impulse response functions has diminished after accounting for the Great Moderation period. A time series is stationary when it represents a random process and its statistical properties do not vary over time. In order to achieve unbiased estimates, it is important to work with a stationary process (as opposed to a nonstationary process in which statistical properties are different at different time periods). The unit root concept is also important for the considerations of this paper. A linear stochastic process has a unit root if 1 is a root of the time series process’ characteristic equation. The presence of a unit root has important implications for the estimation of ARMA models. We will first discuss the concept of roots in the context of our time series To provide context about output behavior after the current economic shock, we then construct a Monte Carlo experiment and create probability distributions for forecasts of future growth paths. We also show that our statistical approach yields results 190 models, and then explain the statistical implications of a unit root. Let us consider a discrete stochastic process written as an AR (p) model: We can then show that this AR(1) model with a unit root is non-stationary because its variance is dependent on time t: yt = ρ1yt −1 + ρ2 yt−2 + . . . + ρpyt−p + εt. . If we express this process in lag polynomial notation, we have: For our purposes, the main implication of a unit root is that a shock to a unit root (or near-unit root) process may have permanent effects that would otherwise decay if the process were stationary. However, because output can be written as a difference stationary model, we are able to analyze the persistence of shocks by converting the unit root process into a difference stationary series that can be analyzed through our time series modeling. (1 − ρ1L − ρ2L2 − . . . − ρp Lp )*yt = εt. We can then obtain the characteristic equation by replacing the lag operator L by a variable (call it ‘m’), and setting the resulting polynomial equal to zero: 1 − ρ1m − ρ2m2 − . . . − ρp m = 0. The characteristic roots are the values of ‘m” that solve this equation. A brief overview of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models will also provide helpful context for this paper’s empirical analysis. ARIMA models are characterized by autoregressive (AR), integrated (I), and moving average (MA) components. Specifications of autoregressive integrated moving average models are generally referred to as ARIMA (p,d,q) models, where p, d, and q represent the order of the autoregressive, integrated, and moving average parts of the model respectively. Let us consider, for example, a first order autoregressive model: Yt = ρ1Yt-1 + εt where the process demonstrates a unit root when ρ1 = 1.1 We can show that this process is non-stationary by illustrating that the moments of the stochastic process depend on the time periods, t. By repeated substitution, our first order autoregressive model with ρ1 = 1 can be written as: The autoregressive (AR) process of an ARIMA model is used to forecast future values of a time series based on the past values of the series. It does so by regressing the dependent variable on its 1 In this case, the characteristic equation would be m-ρ1 = m-1 and the root of the equation is ρ1 = 1 191 lagged values. In its general form, the autoregressive model can be written as: When a series demonstrates nonstationarity, integration can be useful if the process is first-order stationary (i.e. its first-order probability density function does not change across different time periods). Yt = c +ρ1Yt-1 + ρ2Yt-2 + … + ρpYt-p + εt where c represents a constant and εt represents white noise. Now that we have introduced the concepts of ARIMA models, we will turn to a more in depth discussion regarding the appropriateness of this paper’s estimation technique—a stationary ARMA (p,0,q) model in the difference in log GDP—in light of trend vs. difference stationarity and persistence issues. The moving average (MA) process is used to analyze how a weighted average of the lingering effects of random shocks move through time. A general moving average model can be written as: Yt = εt + α1εt-1 + α2εt-2 + … + αqεt-q Statistical Considerations for Measuring the Persistence of Shocks: where εt represents the shock in the current period, εt-1 represents the shock in the previous period, an so on. In order to formulate a response to the main question of this paper—how does a current shock to output affect future output over a long-term horizon?—we will begin by discussing the appropriateness of our statistical approach. We can then combine these two components into one model, the autoregressive moving average model: Economic output in the United States has historically drifted upward. In order to account for this upward drift, previous studies have used two different approaches: detrending and differencing. A non-stationary process that becomes stationary after accounting for a trend (i.e. detrending) is called a trendstationary process, while a nonstationary process that can be made stationary after differencing is referred to as a differencestationary process. The integrated component of the model is used as an initial differencing step in cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity. For example, consider an ARIMA (1,1,1) model, in which we incorporate a first difference into a model with one AR parameter and one MA parameter: Yt - Yt-1 = c + ρ1(Yt-1 - Yt-2) + α1εt-1 + εt. More generally, we can write a first-order integrated ARMA process as: Detrending macroeconomic processes has been a technique used by many, such as Blanchard (1981) to ΔYt = c + ρi(ΔYt-i) + αiεt-i + εt. 192 prepare data for time series analysis. However, as Campbell and Mankiw (1987) explain, this technique is not appropriate for answering the question of persistence we have raised. Detrending the data series leads the process to be trendreverting, essentially eliminating the possibility that a current output shock will have a long-run effect on output. That is, detrending the time series would presuppose the answer to our primary question at an infinite horizon. series before estimation would severely bias the process towards zero. Similarly, Frisch and Waugh (1933) note that including time as an explanatory variable is numerically identical to detrending any of the variables before estimation, and thus inappropriate for our purposes. The differencing method provides an alternative approach to address the upward drift present in output data. According to Campbell and Mankiw, the differenced series of log GNP "appears stationary, allowing one to invoke asymptotic distribution theory" 2 (Campbell and Mankiw 1987). Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the log GDP series in Campbell and Mankiw (1987) illustrate this by exploring the possibility that output follows a random walk with drift: Yt = α + Yt-1 + εt where Yt (the log of GDP) is characterized by an AR(1) process in which α is the drift term representing long-run growth. As Nelson and Kang (1981) point out, detrending the output 2 This assertion remains accurate when we account for our updated time series and use of log GDP as our measure of growth. 193 comparison to the differenced series of log GDP. φ(L)ΔYt =θ(L)εt , where Campbell and Mankiw then consider the potential issues involved with using differenced data. They first consider an IMA (1,1) process: and Yt - Yt-1 = α + εt - θεt-1 θ(L) =1+θ1L +θ2L2 + ...+θqLq . Here, a unit impulse in Yt changes one's forecast of Yt+n by (1-θ). In this case, θ represents measure of persistence and, depending on its value, allows for a current shock to have a range of effects— anywhere from virtually no effect to a significant long-term effect—on future outcome forecasts. By deriving the moving average representation of this equation Campbell and Mankiw show that the differenced model leaves open the question of whether the level of log GDP is stationary (Campbell and Mankiw 1987). That is, the estimation employed in this paper remains consistent with processes in the level of log GDP φ(L) =1−φ1L −φ2L2 − ...−φ pLp , This paper’s estimation technique—modeling the change in log GDP as a stationary ARMA (p,0,q) process—is written as follows: Campbell and Mankiw (1987) also discuss the possibility that outcome is not characterized by a random walk with drift. However, they find that if the 194 followed by economic activities3, similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansions phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own. output process is best captured by traditional business cycle theory—where growth is stationary around a trend— estimating the difference in log GDP does not bias estimates toward misleading or excessive persistence. In other words, the model leaves open the possibility that output is stationary around a deterministic linear trend. Our estimation equation is bounded by the stability condition that the inverse characteristic roots of the equation (i.e. the roots of 1 − ρ1L − ρ2L2 − . . . − ρp Lp), both real and complex, lie outside the unit circle. In this case, our process will be stable and stationary. However, if the inverse characteristic roots demonstrate unity or lie within the unit circle, the process may not be stationary. Robert Lucas (1977) characterizes this notion of a business cycle by asking, “Why is it that, in capitalist economies, aggregate variables undergo repeated fluctuations about trend, all of essentially the same character?” This view of economic growth suggests that the effects of any given technological shock to output will eventually approach zero, and that output is characterized by a trend stationary process. Literature Review This section will discuss literature regarding the trend stationary and random walk with drift theories behind time series economic growth models. We will summarize how time series growth concepts have developed through literature, and then turn to the findings and interpretations of previous studies. Conventional business cycle literature has since evolved to explain that fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from a deterministic trend. The implications of this conventional view are described by Romer: If output movements are temporary deviations around a deterministic trend, then “output growth will tend to be less than normal when output is above its trend and more than In their analysis of the economy during expansions and contractions, Burns and Mitchell (1946) explain the general characteristics of business cycles: A cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many 3 While literature has examined the empirical relationship between the aggregate business cycle and various aspects of the macroeconomy—such as interest rates, employment, investment, etc.—this paper will focus solely on the structural behavior of GDP. 195 normal when it is below its trend” (Romer 1996). long horizon, the economy should return to its natural rate; the time series for output should be trend-reverting (Campbell and Mankiw 1987). However, competing literature has also argued that changes in technology may have a permanent effect on long-run growth. According to Romer, “An innovation today may have little impact on the likelihood of additional innovations in the future, and thus on the expected behavior of the growth of technology in the future. In this case, the innovation raises the expected path of the level of technology permanently” (Romer 1996). However, based on their examination of quarterly postwar United States Data (spanning from 1947:1 to 1985:4) Campbell and Mankiw are skeptical about this implication. Before considering their results, let us turn to Cochrane (1988) who provides guidance on the interpretation of the effects following a one-unit shock to output. Cochrane explains that different results lead to different conclusions about the structural components of output growth (i.e. whether or not output should be characterized by a trend-stationary process or if it is better captured by a random walk). According to Cochrane, if a one-unit shock to GNP affects forecasts in the far future "by one unit, it finds a random walk; if by zero, it finds a trend stationary process" (Cocrane 1988). The question of persistent output fluctuations was addressed by McCulloch (1975) and Nelson and Plosser (1982) who consider whether output shocks have permanent effects. Estimating regressions that test for trend-reversion versus permanent shocks, Nelson and Plosser conclude that they cannot reject the null hypothesis that fluctuations have a permanent component. That is, they cannot reject the existence of a unit root in the autoregressive representation of time series. However, the resulting effects of a one-unit shock do not always yield such a simplistic interpretation. For example, a one-unit shock may also affect forecasts in the future by "numbers between zero and one, characterizing a series that returns toward a 'trend' in the far future, but does not get all the way there. Or it can find a number greater than one, characterizing a series that will continue to diverge from its previously forecast values following a shock" (Cochrane 1988). While the work of Nelson and Plosser began to challenge conventional business cycle theory, Campbell and Mankiw (1987) advanced persistence literature by quantitatively measuring the permanent component of output fluctuations. Campbell and Mankiw contend: If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate (of growth), then an innovation in output should not substantially change one’s forecast of output, in, say, five or ten years. Over a 196 Campbell and Mankiw's results provide evidence that shocks to output are generally followed by further output movements in the same direction. They estimate several models in which a 1 percent innovation to real GNP should change one's forecast of GNP over a long horizon by over 1 percent. While they find "some evidence of short-run dynamics that makes GNP different from random walk with drift, the long-run implications of (their) estimates suggest that shocks to GNP are largely permanent” (Cambell and Mankiw 1987). 15.6 percent—on output being trend stationary, suggesting instead that the current shock to economy may have persistent negative effects. Paul Krugman (2009), who challenges the unit root hypothesis set forth by Mankiw and Campbell, provides a distinctively different commentary: I always thought the unit root thing involved a bit of deliberate obtuseness…For one thing is very clear: variables that measure the use of resources, like unemployment or capacity utilization, do NOT have unit roots: when unemployment is high, it tends to fall. And together with Okun’s law, this says that yes, it is right to expect high growth in future if the economy is depressed now. Greg Mankiw and Paul Krugman's comments on recent forecasts made by the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) highlight the interpretational differences between the trend stationary—or business cycle—theory and the difference stationary—or unit root— theory. According to the March 2009 CEA statement: A key fact is that recessions are followed by rebounds. Indeed, if periods of lower-than- normal growth were not followed by periods of higher-than-normal growth, the unemployment rate would never return to normal. Whereas Mankiw sees the forecast estimates as optimistic, Krugman rejects the notion that the effects of a negative shock in the economy will be persistent. Based on previous literature studies, it seems as if there is evidence to argue for both sides of the debate. Unit root literature has suggested that indeed, GDP may have a unit root; James Stock and Mark Watson (1998) find GDP to have a near unit root measured within an interval of 0.96-1.10 for a 90 percent confidence level. The CEA continues, "because we are now experiencing below-average growth, we should raise our growth forecast in the future to put the economy back on trend in the long run" (CEA 2009) Dissenters, however, argue that while the time-series econometrics may demonstrate a unit root, the actual implications of the findings are not realized in real economic growth patterns. Mankiw disagrees with the CEA premising its economic forecast—which, as of March 2009, suggested that GDP will shrink only by 1.2 percent in 2009 and will grow between now and 2013 by Cocharane (1988) provides important perspective on unit root 197 findings within a time series process. According to Cochrane: fluctuations. According to Romer (1996), there are two major considerations—one statistical and one theoretical—that should not be overlooked. He begins by explaining the former: Since a series with a unit root is equivalent to a series that is composed of a random walk and a stationary component, tests for a unit root are attempts to distinguish between series that have no random walk component (or for which the variance of shocks to then random walk component is zero) and series that have a random walk component (or for which the variance of shocks to the random walk component is between zero and infinity) (1988). The statistical problem is that it is difficult to learn about long-term characteristics of output movements from data from limited time spans. The existence of a permanent component to fluctuations and the asymptotic response of output to an innovation concern characteristics of the data at infinite horizons. (Romer ). Given this description, it becomes clear why tests for a unit root are not particularly powerful: it is difficult to tell a stationary series from a stationary series with a very small random walk component. Romer continues by discussing the risks of using the relationship between current output growth and its most recent lagged values to make inferences about output's long-run behavior: Similarly, Campbell and Perron (1991) argue that it can be very difficult to distinguish between a unit root and near unit root process, suggesting that the usefulness of unit root tests is “not to uncover some true relation,” but rather to “impose reasonable restrictions on data and suggest what asymptotic distribution theory gives the best approximation to the finite-sample distribution of coefficient estimates and test statistics” (Campbell and Perron 1991). Suppose, for example, that output growth is actually AR-20 instead of AR-3, and the coefficients on the 17 additional lagged values of Δ ln y are all small, but all negative. In a sample of plausible size, it is difficult to distinguish this case from the AR-3 case. But the long-run effects of an output shock may be much smaller (Romer 1996). That being said, this difficulty arises from the brevity of the sample, and not from the differencing procedures used to estimate autoregressive and moving average parameters. Thus, the focus of this paper will not be to solve a longstanding debate regarding the existence of a unit root in the output process, but rather to construct measures of persistence. Romer (1996) provides insight into the econometric issues to consider when investigating the persistence of There are two factors that help to attenuate this concern: (1) with the benefit of a significantly longer time series dataset, we will have the flexibility to measure longer ARMA models with greater variation and (2) when using information provided by the current 198 Parameterization GDP shock to simulate the output growth path with a Monte Carlo procedure, we will build a probability distribution to capture the likelihood of different growth trajectories. To estimate our ARMA process, φ(L)ΔYt =θ(L)εt , for the change in log GDP we must determine the appropriate number of autoregressive and moving average parameters to analyze. We will use Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Schwartz Bayesian Information Criteria (SBC) as guidance for our parameterization. Both the AIC and SBC selection criteria penalizes a model for over-parameterization. As Romer points out, there is also a theoretical issue worth considering when investigating the persistence of fluctuations. Namely, “there is only a weak case that the persistence of output movements, even if it could be measured precisely, provides much information about the driving forces of economic fluctuations” (Romer 1996). The Akaike Information Criteria is calculated as: -2*ln(likelihood) + 2k, While this may be true, the paper will attempt to explain its results in light of a theoretical discussion regarding the potential effects of fiscal and monetary policies, Keynesian theory, and real business cycles on economic growth. and the Schwartz Bayesian Information Criteria is calculated as: -2*ln(likelihood) + ln(N)*K, where K equals the number of parameters in the model and N equals the number of observations. This discussion will also be useful when considering the hypothesis of Blanchard and Watson (1984), who examine business cycles within the United States. They suggest that another key area of consideration is “whether fluctuations in economic activity are caused by an accumulation of small shocks, where each shock is viewed in isolation, or rather whether fluctuations are due to infrequent large shocks.” While the paper's measures of persistence are not suited to sort out the precise causes of shocks, we will again attempt to address this issue through a theoretical discussion. To provide robust evidence about the persistence of shocks we will consider several different combinations of autoregressive and moving average parameters. Models with more parameters allow for greater flexibility with impulse response functions, but also run the risk of overparameterization. The selection criteria will be used to provide context for each model in relation to the other models estimated. Results To analyze the persistence of output fluctuations, we estimate ARMA 199 processes for the difference of log GDP with up to three AR and three MA parameters. We consider 15 total models, the most simple being the MA(1) and AR(1) processes, and the most complex being the ARMA (3,3) model. The quarterly time series data is reported as billions of chained 2005 dollars and spans 1947:1 to 2009:3. of output persistence, rather than use a single model as the basis for evidence and interpretation. From the table, it also becomes evident that models more complex than our ARMA (3,3) will be penalized for having too many parameters. Thus our selection for our most complex model—one with three AR parameters and three MA parameters— seems appropriate. Table I reports the AIC and BIC selection criteria for each of the 15 models. While our ARMA (3,2) model minimizes the value of the selection criteria—providing evidence that it is the most parsimonious model—our focus with Table I is shifted towards the fact that all of the models have comparable AIC and SBC values. This is important because we will use each of the models to provide a statistically robust account Table II reports the inverse characteristic AR and MA roots for each of the models. These results seem interesting in light Campbell and Mankiw’s (1987) findings. Using a data set that spans from 1947:1 to 1985:4, Campbell and Mankiw find that high order MA processes have unit roots that are cancelled by near-unit AR roots, causing shocks to die out over a long horizon. While Campbell and Mankiw report moving average roots with perfect unity and corresponding autoregressive roots near unity for the ARMA (1,3), ARMA (2,3), and ARMA (3,3) models, we do not find this phenomenon. The major implication of this finding is 200 (3,3) model aligns with our interpretation of the Akaike and Schwartz Bayesian selection criteria: adding more than three AR and three MA coefficients leads to overparameterizatio n and imprecise estimates. that all of our ARMA models provide evidence for the persistence of shocks over a long horizon because we do not find the cancellation of near-unit AR and MA roots. The parameter estimates for each of the ARMA4 models are reported in Table III. The results are consistent with our statistical theory that more complex models allow for greater flexibility, as well as greater persistence, in our parameter estimates. When we move from the simpler models to more complex models by adding additional parameters, the magnitude of our coefficients generally become larger, yet often remain statistically significant. That being said, the insignificance reported for the ARMA We now turn to our impulse response functions, reported in Table IV, to provide an interpretation of these coefficients. For each model, we calculate impulse 4 The large magnitude of this inverted root suggests that the AR parameter is for the ARMA (1,3) model is small, and most of the effects captured by the model are attributed to the moving average components. 201 responses for 80 quarterly periods into the future. The impulse responses are calculated by imposing a one percent shock to the error term of each respective model in the current time period (period zero). In the ensuing time periods, it is assumed that the error term assumes a value of zero, so that the persistence of the shock in the current period is only carried by parameter estimates reported in Table III. There are a number of important differences to consider when comparing these results with Campbell and Mankiw’s (1987) findings. First, as noted while discussing Table II, we do not find evidence that high order MA processes have unit roots are cancelled by nearunit AR roots, and thus, we do not find that shocks die out over a long horizon for any of the models. We also find that the ARMA (2,3) and ARMA (3,2) process do not completely stabilize by the end of the 80-quarter period. The functions reported in Table IV represent the level of the impulse response. The level is calculated by summing the change in the impulse response function from the current period until the reported period. All of the impulse responses suggest that a 1 percent shock to output in the current period leads to over a 1 percent increase in the forecast of output over a long-run horizon. That is, the impulse responses increase above 1 percent and settle between 1.28 and 1.69 percent over the course of 10 to 20 years into the future. Figures 1A and 1B illustrate the impulse response paths of varying ARMA models from one quarter to the next. The ARMA (3,0) model—which has an impulse response similar to the other pure autoregressive models— demonstrates a path that stabilizes over a short period of time (roughly 1 to 2 years for each of the pure AR models). With more parameters and fewer limitations on the impulse response path, the ARMA (2,2) model depicts a function that oscillates for approximately 7-10 years before reaching an equilibrium 202 or stable path. The ARMA (2,3) process, however, does not reach a steady state even after 20 years. Although its path is slowly collapsing on an equilibrium, the effects of a 1 percent shock in the current period fluctuate over a longrun horizon. absorbed by an economy characterized by greater stability.5 One possible explanation for this finding is that our current dataset includes The Great Moderation- a period from the mid-1980’s until the early 2000’s in which the volatility of economic variables such as GDP, industrial production, and unemployment declined (Bernanke 2004). According to Bernanke, the decrease of volatility associated with economic shocks can be explained by structural changes, improved macroeconomic policies, and good luck. Bernanke classifies structural changes as changes in economic institutions, technology, business practices, or other structural features of the economy that improve the ability of the economy to absorb shocks. He notes, for example, that improved management of business inventories, made possible by advances in computation and communication, has reduced the amplitude of fluctuations in inventory stocks, which in earlier decades played an important role in cyclical fluctuations” (Bernanke 2004). When we compare this paper’s findings with those of Campbell and Mankiw, we uncover two important developments: (1) unconstrained by the autoregressive and moving average near unit root cancellation phenomenon, we can provide additional robust evidence in favor of persistent output shocks, and (2) while shocks demonstrate persistent effects, the magnitude and volatility of these effects has diminished. As we have discussed the statistical properties that help to explain our first finding—namely, we no longer see a near unit root cancellation phenomenon—we will turn our attention to our second finding. For models with no unit moving root average—all models except the ARMA (1,3), ARMA (2,3), and ARMA (3,3)—Campbell and Mankiw find that the “impulse responses increase above and then settle between 1.3 and 1.9 at about the eighth quarter, remaining there even at ten or twenty years” (Campbell and Mankiw 1987). However, when we compare these results to our impulse responses, we find that, on average, persistence measures are both smaller and less volatile: impulse responses settle between about 1.2 and 1.7 percent and demonstrate smaller fluctuations from one quarter to the next. That is, a shock to output is Describing the implications of improved macroeconomic policies, Bernanke suggests that corresponding changes in the volatilities of output growth and inflation gives some 5 While it is possible that this paper’s findings and those of Campbell and Mankiw may impacted by a change in data compilation methods (a chaintype price index is now used in favor of Paasche/Laspeyres indices) or switching from GNP to GDP, the impact is expected to be small given that the differences in results using different methods were found to be very small, if not negligible. 203 credence to the idea that better monetary policy may have been a major contributor to increased economic stability (Bernanke 2004). According to Bernanke, since “few disagree that monetary policy has played a large part in stabilizing inflation,” the fact that “output volatility has declined in parallel with inflation volatility, both in the United States and abroad, suggests that monetary policy may have helped moderate the variability of output as well” (Bernanke 2004). The Great Moderation more as a period of increased economic stability rather than a long-term insurance policy against volatility and the persistence of output shocks. With this in mind, we will turn to a Monte Carlo experiment that forecasts future output in light of the current output shock. Monte Carlo Experiment This section of the paper uses a Monte Carlo experiment to replicate a datagenerating process. We simulate a data set with the essential characteristics of or time series process in order to forecast output projections after the current economic shock. The third possible explanation for a period of moderation, good luck, contends that The Great Moderation did not result from structural changes or improved macroeconomic policies, but rather the frequency and magnitude of shocks declined within the time period, perhaps by chance as opposed to a more stable economy. Quantitatively measuring the factors of The Great Moderation, Stock and Watson estimate that the dampening of GDP volatility is “attributable to a combination of improved policy (20-30%), identifiable good luck in the form of productivity and commodity price shocks (20-30%), and other unknown forms of good luck that manifest themselves as smaller reducedform forecast errors (40- 60%)” (Stock and Watson 2002). After calculating the model error for each of our ARMA processes, we use a random number generator—assuming that each model’s error has a mean of 0 and is normally distributed6—to build a probability distribution of errors for each model (the variance is derived from the different random errors generated for the various iterations of each model). We generate error terms for 80 periods, and using our parameter estimates from Table III, construct a sequence for each specified model. We are able to capture some of the effects of the current shock by tying our forecasts in the early periods to the estimated residuals of recent quarters. While The Great Moderation helps to reconcile our findings with those of Campbell and Mankiw’s, we cannot overlook the significant influence of output volatility that has accompanied shocks caused by the economic and financial crisis beginning in 2007. The recent economic crisis leads us to view 6 The validity of this assumption is checked by generating the density function for the residuals estimated from our time series. The density function shows that our error terms take on close to a standard normal distribution. 204 We then repeat this process to generate approximately 1,000 iterations for each model, with the goal of ensuring that the statistical properties of the constructed sequence are in accord with the true distribution (Enders 2004). 205 206 After generating numerous iterations for a sequence of 80 quarters into the future, we then calculate a mean and band it by standard deviations in order to construct a confidence interval around our point estimates. Figures 2A2C provide illustrations of Monte Carlo experiments for three different ARMA models. shock. That is, we remove the negative shock and forecast output as if it were to continue a stable growth path. The simple MA(1) model shows that forecasted GDP continues to grow at levels lower than potential GDP. That is, the slack between potential and forecasted GDP remains throughout the foreseeable future. In this case, a negative unexpected change in output will cause future growth levels of output be lower than in the period before the shock. The figures graphically represent the level forecast for the change in log GDP. Figure 2A shows the point estimates for an ARMA (2,1) model banded by a 1 and 2 standard deviation distribution. On the graph, time period 1 represents the first forecasted period, and all time periods leading up to that show the path of actual log GDP.7 As we can see, the standard deviation bands around the point estimates widen over the period of our forecast—this is not surprising given that we expect estimates to become less precise as we move further into the long-run horizon. However, the ARMA (3,3) model tells a slightly different story.8 After an unexpected drop in observed output, output slowly recovers and eventually reaches its growth rates from before the shock. Compared to the ARMA (0,1) model, the additional parameters in this process likely pick up a greater portion of the historical upward trend in economic growth, thus allowing for an output path that eventually resumes its natural rate of growth in the time period following the shock. While Figures 2B and 2C provide further evidence for the persistence of shocks reported with our impulse response functions, the ARMA (0,1) and ARMA (3,3) models tell slightly different stories about the trajectory of output over the long-run horizon. In both figures, we add a dashed line to simulate the point estimates for output growth in the absence of the current economic 7 The graphs show 100 previous observations only to shift the focus onto the Monte Carlo forecast. It is important to not that 251 observations dating back to 1947 were used to construct the statistical properties of the Monte Carlo experiment. 8 The 1 standard deviation lines are moved only to more clearly show the point estimate growth path. 207 While this Monte Carlo experiment is helpful for our persistence analysis, it is important to mention a few limitations of the experiment. First, given the volatility of the current economic environment, it is difficult to claim with certainty that the negative shock has ended. It is possible that the economy may still experience unexpected losses (or gains) in the near future that would be important to consider when attempting to forecast output over a long horizon. To provide further perspective on our findings, we compare the forecasts generated by our econometric models with the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) judgment-based projections of potential and projected GDP.10 Figure 3 maps the ARMA (2,1) models forecasted output path on top of the CBO’s potential GDP figures. For comparison purposes, the CBO projection—which is also mapped on top of the potential GDP—is shown in the lower right panel of the figure. As we can see, our model predicts a similar recovery path to the projections made by the CBO Additionally, a limitation of any Monte Carlo experiment is that “the results are specific to the assumptions used to generate the simulated data” (Enders 2004). Thus, when we consider the ARMA (3,2) model—which has two complex roots within the unit circle—we find that our results are difficult to interpret and not overly useful for our analysis.9 growth rates prior to the shock. This result seems unlikely given the structure of the experiment, and may be attributable to the model’s complex roots. 10 The CBO’s economic projections are based on trends in the labor force, productivity, and saving. In preparing its forecasts, the CBO examines and analyzes recent economic developments and relies on the advice of a distinguished panel of advisers [CBO 2010]. 9 For this model, we find that output growth increases substantially after a negative shock, far surpassing 208 growth,11 we will discuss these premises and our results in light of several theoretical interpretations. (although the CBO projections, which show projected GDP reaching potential GDP by 2015, seem slightly more optimistic) As we can see, our estimation techniques to measure the persistence of the shock provide results highly consistent with the CBO’s projected recovery path. The findings, in accordance with the CBO projections, suggest that the effects of the current shock may keep output levels below potential well into the upcoming decade. Nelson and Plosser argue against the first premise in favor of real business cycles, where fluctuations in output are attributable to changes and innovations in aggregate supply, rather than temporary demand shocks. They abandon the notion that fluctuations are driven by aggregate demand— particularly monetary disturbances— suggesting that technological innovations are the source changes in economic growth patterns. Conclusions Our findings of persistence suggest that a current shock to the economy has longrun implications for future economic growth. According to Campbell and Mankiw, many traditional business cycle theorists, monetarists, and neo-Keynesians maintain two fundamental premises: (1) fluctuations in output are assumed to be driven primarily by shocks to aggregate demand, such as monetary or fiscal policy, and (2) shocks to aggregate demand are assumed to have only a temporary effect on output, and the economy returns to a natural growth rate in the long run (Campbell and Mankiw 1987). However, completely abandoning our first premise need not be necessary. For example, we can consider theories that attribute fluctuations to both supply and demand shocks. A Keynesian position may suggest that demand shocks affect supply, which, in turn, permanently effects on the economy. Similarly, it could be argued that demand shocks, in it of themselves, have permanent or near permanent effects. Our second premise—shocks to aggregate demand are assumed to have only a temporary effect on output and the economy returns to a natural growth rate—can also be met be alternative theoretical interpretations. For example, models of multiple equilibria might explain a long-lasting effect of aggregate demand if shocks to aggregate demand can move the economy between However, if output shocks remain persistent into the foreseeable horizon, both of these premises cannot be strictly maintained. Given the challenges associated with distinguishing between a trend stationary process and a process that allows for permanent changes in 11 For example, even if the output process is actually trend-stationary it may take quite a long time to get back to a trend. 209 equilibria (Diamond 1984). As well, the hysteresis theory suggests that supply or demand shocks may have permanent effects because they affect the natural rate of output, unemployment, inflation, etc. Thus, perhaps our findings of persistence suggest that there may be a “new” natural rate after an economic shock. longstanding debate regarding the existence of a unit root in the output process, they do provide context to our findings of persistence. While it remains challenging, if not impossible, to prove or disprove theories business cycles, fluctuations, and output growth behavior, our ARMA and Monte Carlo methods shift our efforts away from championing a single exclusive theory and towards realizing the impact and persistence of economic shocks. Although these theoretical interpretations fall short of settling the Works Cited Bachman, Daniel, Peter Jaquette, Kurt Karl, and Pasquale Rocco. “The WEFA U.S. macro model with chain-weighted GDP.” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 1998. Macroeconomics. 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McGraw Hill Companies Inc., New York. 35 211 A Generalized Leslie Matrix Model for Projections of Area V Humpback Whale Population Demographics Vildana Hajric, Class of 2011 Australian Humpback Whales have been harvested since the late 1700’s, helping to spur the country’s first primary industry. Such continual hunting of the species diminished its stock to near-extinction, forcing the International Whaling Commission to create a ban on commercial whaling of humpbacks in the 1960’s. However, countries such as Japan and Norway that depend on whaling as an integral part of their meat industries and cultural traditions have commenced whaling under the guise of scientific research. This paper aims to calculate humpback whale population growth rates of the eastern Australian area V stock using survivorship and fecundity rates of different classes within the group. Furthermore, it aims to show that scientific whaling has a negative effect on population growth rates, helping to diminish the stock’s population numbers. Lastly, the paper gives recommendations for future recovery plans that could potentially ensure that the area V humpback population increases with time. near extinction in the Pacific Ocean along eastern Australia. Its numbers decreased drastically between the 1780’s and 1960’s causing concern among the international community about its preservation. Introduction In the early 1600’s, European explorers and traders came in contact with the previously unexplored Australian continent looking for new land to claim under the name of their home countries. The area was officially claimed by Captain James Cook in 1770, a British explorer who created early settlements in the Sydney area (McKernan, n.d.). By 1788, however, not many areas had been developed for settlement and colonizers were faced with hunger due to lack of jobs and food (“Australia’s,” 1995). Looking to build industries and jobs, they started hunting whales, using their meat and products as trade items. Since then, whales have been hunted for a number of different reasons around the coasts of Australia. The humpback whale, a baleen whale often found off the coasts of New South Wales, was targeted and hunted into History of Whaling Whaling off the coasts of Australia commenced as a smaller industry used primarily for food resources in the late 1700’s. By the 1830’s, whaling officially grew into a commercial business when Australia became a valuable region for the export of raw materials, such as whale products, to Britain and the United States (“Australia’s,” 1995). Whaling initially used smaller boats, but methods were later aided with harpoons, guns, and other weapons. Whalers sought after all types of whales, including killer, minke, and humpback whales. The animals were being harvested for a number of different reasons. As Australia offered little food sources elsewhere, 212 hunters mainly focused on whales because they provided a reliable source of food (“Killers,” 2009). The settlers were in luck because whales were found in large stocks off the coast of Australia. Within a couple of years, a number of different whaling businesses sprung up along the coast near modern Sydney, and traders around the world, especially Britain and America, started visiting Australia to profit from this industry. The European colonizers, thus, turned whaling into Australia’s first and oldest primary industry (“Australia’s,” 1995). Regulation of Whaling (ICRW) in 1946. The ICRW then established the International Whaling Commission (IWC) whose aim was to protect and conserve rapidly-depleting whale populations. The IWC worked towards protecting certain species of whales, specifying sanctuaries for stocks, and setting limits on how many whales could be harvested per year. Through its practices, the IWC has been able to help recover whale species from near extinction and plans on working towards eliminating other threats to whale populations in the future (“IWC: History,” 2008). Yet whaling industries did not only spring up in Australia— Whaling as Part of countries all around the Scientific Research world also harvested Even though the whales for their products. IWC aims at protecting The profession drew and conserving whales, it thousands of men to does allow its member work in the whaling countries to apply for business as whale permits to hunt whales products were coveted for scientific purposes. and brought many These provisions are Figure 1: Japanese boat whaling financial rewards for scientific research (Modified given out because (McNamara, 2009). from: “Samir’s Weblog,” 2008). countries, such as Japan, However, as the industry that once heavily relied grew over the years, the on whale products for uses in many of number of whales declined and many their industries found scientific whaling countries became concerned with the as a loophole to illegally engage in rapid depletion of whale populations. whaling as they had done before The League of Nations became restrictions were imposed. Therefore, particularly alarmed and drafted the countries with permits are allowed to Geneva Convention on the Regulation of “kill, take and treat whales for scientific Whaling treaty in 1931. The treaty was purposes and requires that the animals signed by twenty-two countries, be processed so far as practicable once including Australia, and was revised a the scientific data has been collected” number of times, eventually leading to (“IWC: Scientific,” 2008). the establishment of the current International Convention for the 213 However, since the IWC started giving out permits for this purpose, more than 11,000 whales have been taken by only four countries: Japan, Iceland, Norway, and Korea. This poses a problem for whale conservation because a large number of whales are killed in the name of science, yet scientific whaling has failed to conduct valuable research about whales that could not have been done through non-lethal research. These practices have been subject to heavy diplomatic and international criticism, yet progress to end scientific whaling has been nothing but slow (Rothwell, 2007). coasts of New Zealand and throughout the South Pacific Islands” (Anderson et al., 2004). One of the most shocking discoveries, however, is that Japan sells whale meat on its markets, all of which comes from whaling done under the guise of such scientific research and purpose, as has been Japanese tradition for hundreds of years (Head, 2005). Nevertheless, “Japan’s increase in the number of whales it kills has become an abuse of a legal right to engage in scientific whaling” and many members of the IWC have proposed that an end needs to come to JARPA programs (Rothwell, 2007). The country of Japan has been particularly spotlighted as it has tried to overturn the IWC’s efforts to stop whaling worldwide. Under its research programs known as Japan’s Research in the Antarctic (JARPA) and JARPA II, Japan has continued whaling humpbacks that travel along the coasts of Australia. Japan claims that not enough scientific research has been done to fully understand how to successfully manage whale stocks (“ICRW: Background,” n.d.). A majority of the whales Japanese researchers harvest are ones that take seasonal migrations along Australia’s eastern coast, known as area V humpbacks. All humpback whales traveling in the Southern Hemisphere are divided into six different stocks based on migration patterns and aggregations in the Antarctic during their feeding season, and the whale stock most commonly observed along the eastern coast of Australia is the area V humpback. It is contained within 130ºE 170ºW and is the same stock that is “observed migrating along the east coast of Australia, past Norfolk Island, both Question With current trends of whaling, the area V humpback whale population is being affected. This paper aims to discuss whether or not the stock population is decreasing, what the effects of whaling under the name of scientific research are, and how the population would be affected if scientific research whaling did not exist. Humpback Whales Humpback Whaling When Australia’s whaling industry was in its prime, humpbacks were targeted, specifically because hunters could use their oil for soaps, lubricants, perfumes, candles, etc. and their baleen for the creation of umbrellas and corsets (Egan, 1995). However, their harvest was unregulated until recently, bringing them to a point of near extinction. Nearly 95% of humpback whales were eliminated as Australia and New Zealand harvested more than 214 40,000 humpbacks has special sieves in its migrating from the mouth known as baleen Antarctic along plates. In Australia, Australia’s eastern coast they are one of the in the 1800’s and 1900’s. most commonly sighted The area V stock whales on the eastern contained around and western coasts of Figure 2: Mother and calf on southern 10,000 whales in its unthe country (“Whale migration (Modified from: “Conforth harvested state, but Watching,” n.d.). They Images,” 2009) only 500 individuals are stocky, stout, and survived by the year 1962 extremely large with outsized pectoral (Chittleborough, 1963, p. 34). Whaling of fins, which it uses for breaching and humpbacks officially ceased in 1963 in slapping water in acrobatic ways (Perrin, Australia, and ended worldwide in 1965 2008, p. 584). It receives its name after the international community “humpback” because it arches its back recognized a dramatic decline in out of water in preparation for a dive for population numbers. This decline air (Harrison, 2005). The top of its back incidentally led to the demise of is dark blue or black and its underside Australia’s whaling industry and can wary anywhere from black to white commercial whaling in Australia ceased to marbled patterns, characteristics in 1978 with the closure of Australia’s last scientists use in demographic studies of whaling station in Western Australia the whales. Each individual has his or (“Department,” 2007). Currently, her own particular pattern and shading, Australia has listed its humpback whale with variations being noticed among populations as vulnerable under the whales originating from different parts of Environmental Protection and the world (Paterson, 2000). More Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act interestingly, however, is that (“Australian Government,” 2005, p. 5). humpbacks grow to about fifty-two feet long and can weigh thirty to fifty tons, Life History making them a very slow moving animal (“Australian The Antarctic,” 2009). humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) is found all over the world including in the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and Southern Hemisphere (Perrin, 2008, p. 582). It is a baleen whale, meaning it Figure 3: Distribution of humpback whales around Australia (Modified from: “Department of Environment,” 2009) 215 All humpback whales take long and arduous seasonal migrations—the longest of any mammal. They mate in warmer waters during winter seasons and travel to colder waters during the spring, summer and fall seasons to feed (Perrin, 2008, p. 583). Area V humpback whales breed and calve on the northern side of the east coast in warmer areas such as the Great Barrier Reef and the Northwest Shelf during the winter (“Australian Antarctic,” 2009). They then embark on their migrations, traveling in large, loose packs with their calves from northern Australia towards colder, polar waters during the summers in search of food (Perrin, 2008, p. 583). Adult whales do not feed during the winter, managing to survive off their layers of fat during that time, and feed enough during summer, fall, and spring seasons to produce milk for their future, young calves (“Animal Info,” 2005). Once in the polar waters, they eat twice a day and tend to feed on planktonic crustaceans, including krill, small fish, and plankton (Perrin, 2008, p. 583). Female humpbacks give birth every one to three years. Twins are very rare and over 99% of the time only one calf is born to a female. The gestation period of humpbacks is around eleven to twelve months. Calves are born about fourteen feet long and weigh around two tons. Babies are nurtured with their mothers’ milk and are weaned sometime between a year and 18 months and reach puberty between ages three and six (Paterson, 2000). Once they are born, the mother and calf pair travels to the colder polar waters together in conjunction with other, looser groups of whales. The only strong bonds among groups are found between mother and baby pairs. Because of their large size, they are only able to travel three to nine miles an hour and have even slower speeds during the babies’ feeding times (“Australian Antarctic,” 2009). Due to their slow speeds and extremely large, noticeable bodies, humpback whales were prime targets for early whaling industries (“Australian Antarctic,” 2009). Demographic Model A demographic model is used to calculate and describe population change over time as it is affected by certain factors. For this study, a Leslie Matrix model is implemented to determine population growth rates for Area V humpback whales using survivorship abilities and fecundity rates for specific age classes. Leslie Matrix Model and Methods Figure 4: Area V Humpback whale migration calendar (Modified from: Paterson, 2000). A Leslie Matrix model is a basic tool used for population studies where specie extinction or survival rates are 216 model of population growth rates by calculating how fecundity rates and survivorship abilities affect the number of individuals in each class, thus projecting growth or decline within the overall population. calculated using parameters of age or class-specific survivorship abilities and age or class-specific fecundity rates (Liebler, 2003, p. 163). It can be used to determine population growth rates as well as age distribution within populations over time. Individuals of studied populations are grouped by maturity and each group records the number of individuals for every age bracket (Liebler, 2003, p. 163). For this study, Area V humpback whales have been condensed into four groups, according to their maturity levels: infants, sub-adults, adults, and postadults. Infants (class 1) were defined as age groups 0-2 because once whales are born the yearlings stay with their mothers for 12 to 18 months (Chittleborough, 1957, p. 2). Sub-adults (class 2) were defined as age groups 3-6 because these are weaned but not yet sexually mature whales (Chittleborough, 1963, p. 54). Adults (class 3) were defined as age groups 7-20, as this is the age period when humpback whales are sexually mature. The post-mature group (class 4) was defined as age groups 21-45 and whales in this class do not reproduce (Chittleborough, 1963, p. 55). Basic Assumptions Because only mature adults are capable of reproduction, only class 3 (F3) can be used to calculate fecundity rates for the different classes. That means that F1 = 0, F2 = 0, and F4 = 0. In order to calculate F3, however, the average number of calves female humpback whales have during their adult lifetime is used, which is 6-9 calves—6 being the lowest end of reproduction and 9 being the highest. This was calculated based on the fact that humpbacks are sexually mature between ages 7-20 and have, on average, one calf every two years with a one-year resting period every two cycles (Chittleborough, 1963, p. 55). Furthermore, 37% (0.37) of females give birth on a two-year cycle (one calf in two years) (Chittleborough, 1963, p. 58, 1957, p. 1). If it is assumed that the most conservative number for reproduction is 6, then the average number of female offspring produced by a female whale during this timeframe for class 3 (F3) is (6 * 0.5 * 0.37) = 1.11. If it is assumed that the high end for reproduction is 9 calves, then F3 = (9 * 0.5 * 0.37) = 1.67. Therefore, F3 equals 1.11 when the average number of calves used is 6 to calculate fecundity rates, and equals 1.67 when the average number used is 9 calves. Each class or group is characterized by fecundity (F) or the average number of female offspring produced by a female. Class 1 is denoted by F1, class 2 by F2, class 3 by F3, and class 4 by F4. Groups are also characterized by probability of survivorship through each age class (P) which is the survival rate of each age group from infant to sub-adult to adult to post-adult. Class 1 is denoted by P1, class 2 by P2, class 3 by P3, and class 4 by P4. From these assumptions it is possible to construct a deterministic To estimate survivorship probabilities, approximations from a previous study were used which 217 calculated that P2 = 0.7103, and P3 = 0.9100 (Jackson, 2009). Because the study did not have approximations for P1, the survivorship rate of infants, information was used from the Chittleborough 1965 paper to determine P1. The study states that the average number of births per 100 females was 18.6 in three years of sampling. The average number of calves surviving to age 3 (subadult) was 11.9, 13.4, and 15.1. By averaging those numbers together and dividing them by 18.6, it was calculated that P1 = 0.7240. Therefore P1 = 0.73, P2 = 0.71, and P3 = 0.91 (Chittleborough, 1963, p. 115). Basic Results Using the calculated numbers for survivorship (6 calves per year, F3 = 1.11), fecundity (P1 = 0.73, P2 = 0.71 and P3 = 0.91), and class sizes (infants=717, subadults = 520, adults = 2710) it is simple to determine the population growth rates given these parameters and the Leslie Matrix model using the program Populus. The results show that the population growth, characterized by λ, is 0.83, or λ = 0.83. Because the resulting number is less than one, the population is shrinking under these circumstances. When projecting population change for the next couple of decades using this result, it is clear that humpback whales would become extinct by 2050 under these assumptions. However, if the population growth rates using 9 calves per year, or F3 = 1.67, were to be calculated, then λ = 0.95. The resulting number is still less than one. Therefore, when using these calculations to project population change in the next couple of decades, the area V humpback whale population would still be shrinking under such assumptions and whales are likely to be extinct by 2150. Lastly, in order to calculate population growth rates, fecundity and survivorship rates need to be evaluated in conjunction with the population sizes of the four different classes. To estimate current population sizes in area V humpback whales, the Chaloupka et al. 1999 study was used that states that the stock has 156 sub-adults and 813 adults (Chaloupka, 1999). The study also states that these numbers represent between 30-50% of the entire population. To calculate the number of calves for the same time period, it was assumed that approximately 72.4% of calves survive to sub-adults. Therefore, the estimated number of calves is 215. If it is assumed that these class size numbers represent 30% of the entire population, then there are 717 calves, 520 sub-adults, and 2710 adults at the first time point of the modeling (Chaloupka, 1999). Finally, the number of post-adults is presumed to start at 0 at the first time point in the modeling because it does not influence the population growth rate. 218 0 1.11 0 0 0.73 0 0 0 0 0.71 0 0 0 0.91 0 them for a specific year. Japanese researchers claim to be taking fifty whales per year from the region or around 0.1% of the total population of humpback whales (“Embassy of Japan,” 2009). They claim that these numbers have no effect on the population numbers. However, fifty whales amount to 1% of the estimated area V population, ten times the number the Japanese claim to harvest. These practices need to be calculated into population growth rates in order to get a more accurate estimate of population change over the years. 0 1.67 0 0 0.73 0 0 0 0 0.71 0 0 0 0.91 0 Leslie Matrix Equations depicting Calculations using F3 = 1.11 and F3 = 1.67 As stated before, the P values indicate the probability rate that a female survives to the next class. It is known that P1 = 0.73 and that whales spend two years in that class before moving to the next one. Therefore, their yearly survivorship equals (0.73)1/2 or 0.85. P2 = 0.71 and whales spend four years in that class before moving to the next one. That means that their yearly survivorship equals (0.71)1/4 = 0.92. So, if it is assumed that whaling takes 1% of the population each year (50 whales / approx 5000 total), then putting those numbers back into the survivorship calculations makes P1 = 0.86 * 0.86 instead of 0.85*0.85, and P2 = 0.934 instead of 0.924. The new survivorship rates therefore are P1 = 0.74, P2 = 0.72 and P3 = 1.0. Using these numbers it is easy to calculate the effect no whaling would have on the humpback population as was done previously. The calculations show that with 6 calves per year λ = 0.84, and with 9 calves per year λ = 0.96. Because both these numbers are less than 1, the population would be projected to be shrinking in either case. An explanation as to why humpback whale numbers are decreasing can be found by calculating whether or not scientific whaling impacts stock numbers, as area V humpback whales are still being harvested under the guise of scientific research. In order to calculate true population growth rates, current levels of scientific whaling must be included to investigate the effect of greater or lesser whaling which can be done by manipulating the survivorship probability values of the stock. Effects of Whaling on Calculated Results Whaling of area V humpback whales happens in the Antarctic once they migrate to the region during their mating seasons. It is mainly done by Japanese hunters who claim to harvest whales in order to conduct scientific experiments that could later be used to create better protection programs for whales. However, their whaling greatly impacts the population of the humpbacks as they have been known to take more whales than the IWC allots 219 However, it is a possibility that the whaling numbers provided by the Japanese are not accurate. Therefore, a more representative number of whales 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2141 2130 2119 2108 2097 2086 2075 2064 2053 2042 2031 2020 2009 0 1.0. Calculating population change with 6 calves per year produces λ = 1.0034. This number is very close to 1.0, which means that the population stays stable, not growing nor shrinking. When calculating it with 9 calves per year λ = 1.15. This number gives a 15% population Whaling (6) increase per year, meaning that Whaling (9) without the scientific whaling Assumed (6) done by Japanese researchers, Assumed (9) Reality (6) humpback populations are more likely to be stable or growing. Figure 4: Graph depicts humpback population predictions according to demographic calculations affected by Japanese whaling numbers using first 6 then 9 calves, calculations with assumed Japanese whaling numbers using first 6 then 9 calves, and finally demographics without whaling using 6 calves (calculations using 9 calves have been excluded due to extraordinary quick growth rates) Conclusion and Recommendations Under the current conditions, it has been calculated that area V humpback whales are facing extinction, perhaps as soon as 2050 or 2150. In reality, because of the way the model is calculated with age groups, extinction rates are probably closer to 2070 or 2170 and have a 20-year lag within age groups. If the current amount of whaling was stopped at levels cited by Japanese researchers, populations would continue to shrink. This is very strange because without external mortality through whaling one would think the population would be at carrying capacity, meaning that the population growth rate or λ would be close to 1.0. Under perhaps a more realistic assumption of whaling (10% instead of 1%), calculations show that if whaling were to stop, λ would indeed be 1.0034 (under an average of 6 calves per female), which would indicate a population near carrying capacity. Under the assumption of 9 calves per harvested or killed each year using more realistic factors can be calculated. It is know that the Japanese take a total of 930 whales in the Antarctic including minke and blue whales (“Act Now,” 2008). Out of that number, it is estimated that blue whales are taken least. It can, therefore, conservatively be estimated that 20% of the harvest is blue whales and that the rest of it is split between minke and humpback whales. This means that minke and humpback whales are harvested at 40% each. For humpback whales, that means that 40% of harvest * 930 whales = 372 humpbacks. Those 372 whales equal nearly 10% of the area V humpback population, not 0.1% as the Japanese claim. Under these assumptions, if whaling stopped, then P1 = 0.95*0.95 =0.91, P2 = 1.0 (becomes 1.0 with just a 7% average return), and P3 = 220 female and no whaling at the 10% level, λ = 1.15. However, an average of 6 calves per female is probably more accurate than 9 calves per female, and perhaps the 10% estimate is closer to reality than the 1% calculations, especially because other studies have found similar population growth rates to be true (Noad et al., 2007). scientific research methods that do not interfere with whale migratory paths, feeding and breading grounds in order to learn about the humpbacks and their lifestyles. To accomplish this, scientists must locate specific migratory routes of area V humpback whales in nondisturbing ways, which can be done through careful observation using technological advances and satellite imagery. Such routes could then be sanctioned by the government and put under satellite watch to ensure complete specie protection. Sanctions would help ensure that no invaders come near their migratory paths without permission or valid excuses validated by the government. Australia has already taken measures to ensure that humpback whales are protected in established sanctuaries and within parameters of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), an area over which a country has special rights, but needs to ensure that such areas are completely guarded at all times (“Australian Government,” 2005, p. 5). Furthermore, the Australian government can impose policy limiting the activities of whale watching industries and the impacts they make on their tours. Whales should be left undisturbed and should be observed from a distance, allowing tourists to see them while not interfering with their lives. Finally, similar restrictions should be placed on fishing boats and other fleets traveling near migratory or sanctuary humpback areas. Measures should be taken to ensure that no whales get caught in fishing nets, none are hit accidentally by boats, and pollution to their waters is minimized by reducing waste that is discarded by all ships. Fines should be It is clear that whaling of humpbacks poses an apparent and eminent danger to the animals but numerous countries that depend on whaling as part of their main industries have been pushing for reform within the IWC to allow commercial whaling to legally recommence (“Australian Government,” 2005, 6). Humpback whales are also threatened by many other anthropogenic activities and factors, including climate change, pollution, whale watching, illegal whaling, fish nets, and collisions with boats (“NPCA,” n.d.). In addition, it is very possible that the specie’s habitats will be destroyed by climate change factors. In the future, “humpback whale migration, feeding, resting, and calving site selection may be influenced by factors such as ocean currents and water temperature” which are influenced by climate change (“Australian Government,” 2005, p. 7). This could impact humpback whale populations in many negative ways, contributing to their shrinking numbers. Through careful monitoring of populations and their habitats, the Australian government can help ensure that humpback whales do not become extinct in the near future. This can be done by implementing programs and 221 put in place for all who disturb the regulations. Japanese to stop their whaling and urging the international community to do the same, as non-lethal whale research can provide all needed information about whales. The Australian Minister for the Environment, Peter Garrett has proclaimed that “nonlethal whale research can provide all the information needed to understand and conserve whales and so called ‘scientific whaling’ is unnecessary” (Garret et al., 2009). Therefore, scientists need to make it clear that humpback whales are a threatened and endangered specie, that survival of even 50 humpbacks can make a difference on stock populations, and that scientific whaling needs to come to an end. Once such measures are taken, humpback whales would be protected to a certain degree. However, the Australian government needs to focus on eliminating the scientific whaling done by Japan and place a ban on their practices. 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Retrieved October 20, 2009, from http://www.iwcoffice.org/_documents /sci_com/workshops/MSYR/SC-60SH31.pdf National Parks Conservation Association. (n.d.). Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), Retrieved November 9, 2009, from http://www.npca.org/marine_and_ coastal/marine_wildlife/humpbackwhale .html McKernan, Michael. (n.d.). Ancient Heritage, Modern Society. Retrieved 224 Validating Foreign Language Issues: What are the Effects of Non-English or Bilingual Population on an MSA? Mary Liz Brady, Class of 2011 Increasing immigration, as well as globalization of the national economy, has put foreign language issues in the popular media spotlight. ProEnglish advocates support establishing English as the national language and diminishing bilingual education in favor of English immersion programs. On the other hand, several school systems are emphasizing the importance of foreign language classes in light of the increasing economic interdependence and importance of foreign diplomacy. This paper examines the effects of a non-English speaking population on the well-being of a metropolitan statistical area. Furthermore, it explores what effect a bilingual population has on the MSA. Results indicate that both a non-English and bilingual population are insignificant in determining average income across a city. Introduction assimilate with the U.S. labor market. The ProEnglish organization, one of the major interest groups fighting to establish English as the official national language, argues that multilingualism is creating a growing lower class, walled off from the larger economy and segregated into enclaves (ProEnglish 2010). Advocates of this movement call for decreased bilingual education, and instead call for a replacement by an English immersion curriculum, such as the common English as a Second Language or ESL program. Most U.S. states have taken action to establish English as their official language (See Figure 1). Declaring English as the official language means “that official government business at all levels must be conducted solely in English. This includes all public documents, records, legislation and regulations, as well as hearings, official ceremonies and public meetings” (U.S. English Inc.). This paper examines the effects of an MSA’s collective English proficiency and bilingual ability on average earnings within the area. This question is particularly prevalent as immigration grows and international relationships gain importance. In data collected by the 2000 U.S. Census, 47 million Americans, or about 18%, reported speaking a language other than English inside the home. This figure has increased from 14% in the 1990 Census and further from 11% in the 1980 Census (Vistawide 2010). Combined with the continuing globalization of the national economy, the growing presence of foreign language within U.S. borders has inspired political and social issues that have captured public attention. Popular media has underscored two major, and in many ways ideologically opposite, concerns surrounding foreign language. First, pro-English advocates assert the importance of immigrants learning proficient English in order to aptly 225 Figure 1 Research has demonstrated that immersion into the American labor force weakens mother tongue ability from first to second generation immigrants (Fry 2003). Certainly, the immersion programs proposed by pro-English supporters would exacerbate this issue. The weakening of foreign language ability among American immigrants falls into direct conflict with the second major issue emphasized by popular media: the recognition of foreign language classes as an essential piece of the American education. In the face of the budget cut backs, believers in foreign language education point to the increasing globalization of the American economy as a key reason to maintain these programs. Moreover, at a time when the United States is involved in two wars and other unstable foreign relationships, they argue that intelligence gathering, military planning, and diplomacy are as essential as ever (Holman 2010). Thus, it appears that while immigrants and second generation Americans are often encouraged to weaken ties with nonEnglish languages, the American education system is encouraging and requiring students to pursue bi- or multilingualism. It is uncertain whether either of these assertions is economically sound. It seems logical to support the assimilation of new immigrants into the American labor market through learning English. Empirical studies provide mixed conclusions on the significance of English proficiency on the earnings of immigrants. However, in the study conducted by Park (1999) he makes a convincing argument suggesting a positive correlation between English fluency and earnings. Rather than examine a direct correlation, Park investigates the effect of English fluency on the parameters of other variables in the earning equation, (Park 1999). In particular, he observes the effects of English proficiency on immigrants’ 226 return to education and experience obtained before and after immigration. racism are responsible for curbing economic growth in these instances. The results are largely in line with Park’s hypothesis. Experience and education received outside of the United States are more valuable to English speakers who are able to transfer the benefits easily in to the American labor market. Furthermore, non-English speakers received a greater return to experience and education obtained within the United States as it is a comparably more significant acquisition of human capital. The non-English group is divided into those who speak English very well denoted “fluent” and all others denoted “nonfluent.” In accordance with Park’s hypothesis, the fluent group receives greater returns to education and experience abroad, while the non-fluent group receives greater returns from education and experience obtained domestically. However, other empirical studies provide more optimistic results. In their 2005 investigation “Cities and Cultures,” Ottaviano and Peri argue that linguistic diversity is associated with higher wages for natives in a city. This effect is strongest for high skilled workers, but remains present for the unskilled, as well. In addition, they find a positive association between employment and linguistic diversity within a city. Including several demographic controls such as schooling, experience, share of women, and share of blacks, they find that moving from a linguistically homogenous city like Pittsburgh, to a more linguistically diverse city like Los Angeles is associated with a 13% increase in the average wages of U.S. born workers. They contend that their results indicate that with linguistic diversity come distinct skills to production (Ottaviano 2005). They address the crucial issue of endogeneity by constructing instruments involving distance to borders and gateway cities, as well as using a shift-share methodology. These estimations support the proposed causation. Settling on the conclusion that Americans are better off with increased English proficiency, the question remains whether this is a political or individual matter. In other words, it is worth exploring whether the individual immigrant’s decision to speak his or her mother tongue will have a negative impact on an MSA as a whole. Again, empirical analysis points to mixed conclusions about the benefits of a homogenous civilization. Easterly and Levine (1997) demonstrate a negative relationship between per capital GDP growth and ethnolinguistic fractionalization across a large sample of countries (Easterly 1997). It is possible that preferential conflict, communication obstacles, or outright prejudice and Ratna et al. (2009) build on Ottaviano and Peri’s research. While the main argument in their study is the negative relationship between racial diversity and Gross State Product, their regressions consistently produce positive correlation between GSP and linguistic diversity. Oddly, this study also finds a positive relationship between the percentage of the population with insufficient English fluency and GSP but 227 they assume this is a simple endogeneity problem resulting from more productive states like California and Florida having a large number of Spanish speakers and non-native workers (Ratna et al 2009). In their discussion, Ratna et al. provide arguments against their counterhypothesis language result. They insist that while enclaves such as “Chinatown” or “Little Italy” provide a springboard for newly arrived immigrants, the continual use of mother tongue as a business language is a huge barrier to economics success (Ratna et al 2009). may need to speak another language. Finally, they argue that research finds bilinguals tend to perform better academically, and thus are probably more productive professionally (Fry 2003). In analyzing their data collected from the National Adult Literacy Survey, Fry and Lowell find that workers who know a second language cluster at two extremes of the education distribution. Bilinguals are both more likely than monolinguals to have not completed high school and to have completed at least a bachelor’s degree. Their initial regression suggests that workers who know a second language in addition to English earn about 7% more than similar workers who only know English. However, once educational credentials are controlled for, there are no statistically significant wage gains from knowledge of a second language. The results are not altered when specific language or occupational categories are considered. While both studies support arguments for linguistic diversity, neither refutes the importance of English proficiency. In fact, Ottaviano and Peri conclude that “benefits from immigrants who have integrated (i.e. have been in the US for a longer period of time and speak English well) are larger than those from new immigrants” (Ottaviano 2005). Thus it is fair to conclude that the cultural benefits captured in the linguistic diversity studies may be attributable to bilingual individuals who maintain distinct cultural and linguistic characteristics still overcoming communication obstacles with proficient English ability. In summary, popular media topics about foreign language remain unsettled. While it is true that it is individually beneficial for an immigrant to be English proficient, it is not clear what indirect effects English-only assimilation may have on a particular labor market. Furthermore, while one study refutes popular opinion about the advantages to being bilingual, this matter can certainly be re-approached. Accordingly, I will focus my research on a two-fold topic: It is then reasonable to hypothesize that bilingualism has a significant value in the U.S. labor market. Fry and Lowell (2003) explore this avenue and reach unexpected results. They rationalize that in an increasingly global economy, multinational corporations need workers with ability to speak both English and another language. Furthermore, workers in supervisory service-provider positions • Do non-fluent English speakers lower average incomes within an MSA? 228 are 567 total observations taken from 284 metropolitan areas in the 2000 US Census and the 2008 American Community Survey. In order to measure an MSA’s general economic quality, I use the average wage and salary income for all residents over age 18 who have an income greater than 0. While not totally comprehensive, the income variable captures the relative well-being of a region for this analysis. In order to measure elasticity and diminish the effects of outliers, we use the natural logarithm of wage and salary income as the dependent variable in all regressions. • How does the percentage of bilingual residents of a city affect average earnings? How does bilingualism impact cities with relatively low English proficiency? Data In order to capture the effects of non-English and bilingual speakers, this paper will measure the economic consequences they impose on a Metropolitan Statistical Area. I use MSAs rather than cities because they consider social and economic integration as well as geographic boundaries. There Table 1: General Summary Statistics Variable Wage & Salary Income Years of Education English-speaking Population Bilingual Population Population Hispanic Population Black Population Foreign-born Population N 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 567 Mean $31,790 13.24 97.16% 10.71% 770,250 9.74% 9.26% 9.99% To measure the English-speaking ability of a given MSA, we use the variable “ENG” that takes a value of 1 when the respondent claimed to speak only English, speak English very well, or speak English well. “ENG” takes a value of 0 otherwise. When the variable is averaged across a metropolitan area, it ranges from 0 to 1 and represents the population of proficient English speakers in the given MSA. Table 1 indicates “ENG” ranges from 76.81% to 100%. Std. Dev. $6,025 .52 0.04% 10.54% 1,588,433 14.37% 9.41% 9.12% Min. $19,741 10.87 76.81% 0.17% 96.493 0.27% 0.11% 0.69% Max. $89,160 14.68 100.00% 73.93% 17,500,000 95.43% 46.73% 61.97% Another major variable is bilingual ability “BILING” in a metropolitan area. It takes a value of 1 when the respondent spoke both proficient English and a second language inside the home. Like the “ENG” variable, it is averaged across a metropolitan area and represents the MSA’s population of bilingual speakers. Although it successfully captures the foreign born population that also speaks English, its major shortfall is the failure to consider those who speak English as their first language but are proficient in another 229 language, as well. Although this skews the data, this study focuses mainly on the impacts of immigrants on a city. Accordingly, this paper will consider the group irrelevant. Table 2: Summary Statistics for Significant MSAs (2008) MSAs with highest average incomes MSAs with lowest average incomes Metropolitan Area Average Income Englishspeaking Population Bilingual Population Metropolitan Area Average Income Englishspeaking Population Bilingual Population Stamford, CT $89,161 95.12% 21.43% Laredo, TX $22,663 76.82% 69.32% Danbury, CT $58,620 96.54% 17.51% Flint, MI $23,151 100.00% 3.11% San Jose, CA $55,451 92.23% 41.14% Johnstown, PA $23,167 99.79% 1.37% Washington, DC/MD/VA $51,388 96.19% 20.37% Muncie, IN $23,180 99.01% 2.50% $23,284 80.51% 67.06% San FranciscoOaklandVallejo, CA $49,423 93.03% 29.12% McAllenEdinburgPharrMission, TX Trenton, NJ $49,249 95.51% 21.52% Joplin, MO $23,720 98.67% 3.52% $23,799 84.88% 61.44% $23,806 99.42% 1.94% Bridgeport, CT New YorkNortheastern $49,249 96.48% 19.15% BrownsvilleHarlingen-San Benito, TX $47,053 93.21% 28.42% Danville, VA 230 NJ Boston, MANH $47,008 96.76% 16.71% Sharon, PA $23,827 100.00% 2.34% MonmouthOcean, NJ $44,871 97.81% 11.30% Yuma, AZ $24,355 86.09% 3.44% Educational attainment level “YEARSED” is an essential control variable. Education is arguably one of the most significant factors in wage and salary determination and should be accounted for in all regressions. Education level is likely correlated with the principal independent variables, English-speaking and bilingual ability, in addition to other race controls capturing black and Hispanic populations (See Figures 2, 3). The exclusion of “YEARSED” from any regression will result in omitted variable bias. link between minorities and higher levels of poverty. General population is included as a control variable, as well. Scatterplots of the data do not demonstrate an obvious relationship between income and English ability nor income and bilingual ability (See Appendix). In examining both the top ten richest and poorest MSAs in our study, a few notable trends emerge (Table 2). All of the rich cities have a percentage of English-proficient speakers between 92% and 98%. Their bilingual populations are all above the mean clustering in 20-30% range. These statistics are not especially surprising as one would equate a successful economy with strong ability to communicate. The data for the poor MSAs does not have the same uniformity. Laredo, Texas, the city with the lowest average income, has the smallest English-speaking population and one of the largest populations of bilingual inhabitants. However, the second poorest MSA, Flint, Michigan, has largely opposite characteristics. Flint boasts a population with 100% English proficiency but a comparatively low level of bilingual ability of 3.11%. Similar variation exists in the other highlighted poor MSAs. It is difficult to make any generalization in regard to the linguistic abilities of the lowest income cities in our study. Additional important variables include the foreign born population “FOREIGN,” and the percentage of a population identifying as Hispanic “HISP” in a specified MSA. Given the characteristics of U.S. immigration, a strong relationship exists between language ability, foreign birthplace, and the Hispanic ethnicity. It is likely that in a location that attracts large scale immigration, both significant bilingual and non-English speaking populations are prevalent. Perhaps a bilingual individual lives among non-English speaking family members or attracts new immigrants that have not adopted the language immediately. These controls help evade any bias related to their overlap. Similarly, I include a control for the percentage of a population which is black “BLACK,” due to the established 231 Hypothesis & Specification time-related variation, and represents an MSA’s population. Although the raw data does not demonstrate any clear correlation, this is not a complete representation. I hypothesize that English ability does not have any significant relationship with average income in a metropolitan area. While previous studies have asserted that English ability is an important factor in an individual’s wage, I contend that there is no negative effect resulting from a high percentage of non-English speakers on other members of an MSA (Park 1999). I expect the inconvenience arising from inability to communicate is not large enough to impose a city-wide reduction in income. In order to test the hypothesis econometrically, the following regression is done: “POP” In regard to bilingualism, I predict that a higher bilingual population will result in a higher average income across MSAs. According to the research conducted by Fry (2003) bilingual speakers perform superiorly in academics. Their strengths likely translate into work related activity. Moreover, in a bilingual society, constituents are better able to transfer skills and ideas across cultures. Benefits resulting from linguistic-- and thus cultural-- diversity across cities are established in the study of Ottaviano and Peri (2005). Bilingual ability will certainly only facilitate the distribution of these cultural elements. In order to test this hypothesis econometrically, the following regression is employed: LWAGE = β0 + β1*ENG + β2*POP + β3*YEARSED + β4*FOREIGN + β5*DYEAR + β6*BLACK + β7*HISP LWAGE = β0 + β1*BILING + β2*POP + β3*YEARSED + β4*FOREIGN + β5*DYEAR + β6*BLACK + β7*HISP “LWAGE” represents the log of wage and salary income, “ENG” is the percentage of proficient English speakers within the MSA, “FRACT,” is a measure of linguistic fractionalization within the MSA, and “YEARSED” accounts for the city-wide average education level. “FOREIGN,” “BLACK” and “HISP” measure the percentage of foreign-born, black, and Hispanic populates, respectively. “DYEAR” is a dummy variable for 2000 data that control for “BILING” represents the percentage of the population with bilingual ability. I also include “ENG” and “BILING” in the same specification, along with an interaction of the terms. The utility of bilingualism for translation and communication likely depends on the magnitude of non-English speakers within a given MSA. 232 Results Table 3: Estimated Income Returns of English & Bilingual Ability Specification: Constant English-speaking population Bilingual population English/bilingual interaction Average years of education Foreign-born population Year 2000 dummy 1 6.53*** (0.31) 1.14*** (0.41) 2 7.84*** (0.39) -0.14 (0.47) 0.19*** (0.01) 1.05*** (0.15) 0.05*** (0.01) 0.19*** (0.01) 1.04*** (0.15) 0.04*** (0.01) 0.02 (0.05) -0.35*** (0.07) 0.00*** (0.00) 0.58 Black population Hispanic population Population Adjusted R2 ***1% significance level **5% significance level 0.00*** (0.00) 0.56 Table 3 displays the results of an econometric analysis measuring the effect of an English proficient population, as well as a bilingual population on average income of a metropolitan area. In a general OLS regression, population of proficient English speakers appeared to have a positive and significant relationship with income; however, once controls are added for black and Hispanic populations, the coefficient loses significance (See columns 1&2). Initially, the English- speaking population variable Standard OLS 3 4 7.75*** 7.96*** (0.16) (0.46) -0.26 (0.52) 0.06 0.09 (0.16) (0.18) 0.19*** (0.01) 1.05*** (0.10) 0.04*** (0.01) 0.01 (0.05) -0.38*** (0.11) 0.00*** (0.00) 0.58 0.19*** (0.01) 0.98*** (0.18) 0.04*** (0.01) 0.02 (0.01) -0.42*** (0.14) 0.00*** (0.00) 0.58 5 9.93*** (0.52) -2.31*** (0.58) -4.41*** (0.65) 5.12*** (0.72) 0.20*** (0.01) 0.48*** (0.19) 0.04*** (0.01) 0.07 (0.05) -0.49*** (0.13) 0.00*** (0.00) 0.61 was capturing the effect of Hispanic residents in a city. According to column 2, a 1% increase in the Hispanic makeup of an MSA is associated with a 35% decrease in the average income in this city. An explanation of general Hispanic/Latino demographic characteristics may explain this relationship. According to a study conducted by the US Census Bureau in 2002, Hispanics are more likely to have dropped out of high school and to be below the poverty line than non- 233 Hispanic Report). whites (2000 US Census when a metropolitan area has abundant English proficient speakers, the setbacks of failure to assimilate are offset. In this environment, it is possible that diversity benefits are better able to emerge. The specification in column 3 examines the effect of a bilingual population on the earnings in a metropolitan area. According to the regressions, it is an insignificant determinant of average earnings. The final column considers the interaction effect of an English speaking and bilingual population on a city. Intuitively, an area with low-English proficiency would benefit from having a large bilingual population in order to overcome communication barriers; however, the regression points to different results. The English-speaking population has a significant and negative relationship with average earnings. Likely this result captures some endogeneity due to greater immigration in cities that have relative economic success as concluded by Ratna et al (2009). It may also indicate that cities with less diversity are worse off, a finding established by Ottaviano and Peri (2005). In either case, it does not lend itself well to the Pro-English argument. The bilingual variable also has a negative and significant relationship with income. This result is also counterintuitive and probably reveals a lack of assimilation in cities that have a lot of people who speaks their native tongue with their families inside the home. In addition, bilingual speakers generally cluster at extreme ends of the education spectrum (Fry 2003). It is possible that by eliminating native born bilinguals I am capturing only the less-educated. The interaction term is positive and large in magnitude. Again, this outcome is unexpected. It may demonstrate that In all regressions, average years of education, foreign-born population, and the year 2000 dummy are all significant. According to the results, a 1 year increase in the average education level across a city is associated with a 0.19% increase in average income. The foreign-born percentage of the population is positive and captures the endogeneity effects of a successful city attracting foreign-born immigrants. The fixed effects regressions employed in Table 4 aim to reduce omitted variable bias by controlling for random variation across metropolitan areas. The results do not vary greatly. Both English-speaking ability and bilingual ability prove largely insignificant in determining average earnings within a city. Again, the English language variable probably captures some endogeneity as well as disadvantages from a homogenous community. The negative sign on the bilingual variable may indicate a resistance to assimilation by people maintaining their language within the home or living in isolated enclaves. In column 5, both variables as well as their interaction term are highly insignificant. Nonetheless, the education, foreignborn, and year 2000 dummy variables are all positive and significant across specifications. According to these results, a 1 year increase in the city-wide average education is associated with a 0.13% increase in average earnings. 234 economic well-being of an MSA. Despite convincing literature on the subject, the results are counter-intuitive. Rather than indicate communication facilitation and cultural exchange, the variable may capture resistance to assimilation through preservation of one’s native tongue. In accord with my hypothesis, the aggregate English speaking ability of a city has no effect on average earnings Any private or externality effect imposed by barriers to communication are not large enough to affect an MSA as a whole. On the other hand, bilingual ability does not appear to increase the Table 4: Estimated Income Returns of English & Bilingual Ability Specification: Constant English-speaking population Bilingual population English/bilingual interaction Average years of education Foreign-born population Year 2000 dummy 1 7.77*** (0.58) 0.72 (0.55) 0.13*** (0.03) 0.78*** (0.29) 0.02*** (0.01) Black population Hispanic population Population Adjusted R2 ***1% significance level **5% significance level 0.00 (0.00) 0.54 Fixed Effects 2 3 4 7.71*** 8.32*** 7.29*** (0.60) (0.35) (0.63) 0.76 1.19 (0.57) (0.61) -0.35 -0.58 (0.28) (0.18) 0.13*** (0.03) 0.70*** (0.29) 0.03*** (0.01) 0.07 (0.22) 0.20 (0.30) 0.00 (0.00) 0.47 Conclusion 0.15*** (0.03) 0.68*** (0.29) 0.03*** (0.01) 0.14 (0.21) 0.25 (0.31) 0.00 (0.00) 0.47 0.13*** (0.03) 1.02*** (0.34) 0.03*** (0.01) 0.07 (0.22) 0.45 (0.33) 0.00 (0.00) 0.48 5 7.46*** (0.88) 1.02 (0.89) -1.19 (2.39) 0.67 (2.47) 0.13*** (0.03) 1.01*** (0.34) 0.03*** (0.01) 0.08 (0.22) 0.45 (0.33) 0.00 (0.00) 0.50 globalization that encourages multilingual ability. This paper aims to uncover any economic legitimacy of these issues. In examining the effect of an MSA’s population of English proficient speakers, I find that there is no Foreign language issues have pervaded popular media spotlight due to concerns about immigrant assimilation through learning English and increased 235 clear link to average earnings within that MSA. Once fixed effects were accounted for, any association disappeared. Furthermore, this paper finds that the bilingual-able population of an MSA has no effect on average income. Some specifications provided contrary results, but once fixed effects were eliminated, the coefficients are largely insignificant. does not account for native born bilinguals, it is possible that the variable represents a largely uneducated population (2003). In light of this paper’s results, it is possible to reexamine political concerns. While other issues certainly factor into legislation, these findings indicate that while promoting English may be beneficial on the individual level, setting a national language is unnecessary as the majority of the population is largely unaffected by immigrants’ language proficiency. Furthermore, foreign language education may be readdressed. Although this study does not demonstrate any clear benefits of bilingual ability, it is possible that by eliminating American born bilinguals the results have been skewed. In addition, most of the bilinguals likely speak Spanish and English. Perhaps knowledge of a more obscure language has stronger advantages. Despite the regression results, it is probable that there is something to be gained from bilingual ability. Language proficiency is a major barrier to success for immigrants hailing from non-English speaking countries. Previous literature has established a link between English fluency and higher wages for immigrants. However, if an individual is unable or choose not to become proficient, any resulting disadvantage is exclusive to the personal level. This result is largely expected as it is difficult to imagine a non-English speaking population becoming so pronounced that trading and economic relations are strained. Furthermore, it is possible that despite communication barriers, the general public benefits from cultural diversity and new skills introduced by a non-native (Ottaviano & Peri 2005). The results of the bilingual ability analysis are much less intuitive. All research indicates that bilingual ability should increase income. However, this was proven incorrect on the individual and now MSA level. This result may be explained by the skill quality of most new settlers in the United States. As most immigrants are considered to be of the “low skill” quality, becoming bilingual may not have the capability of moving them to a higher income bracket. Fry’s findings about education levels underscore this issue. Since the study 236 Bibliography Easterly, W., and R. Levine. (1997). “Africa’s Growth Tragedy: Politics and Ethnic Divisions,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 111(4), 1203-1250. Ottaviano, G.I.P., and G. Peri. “Cities and Culture.” Journal of Urban Economics 58, 2005.304-337. Park, Jin Heum. “The Earnings of Immigrants in the United States: The Effect of English Speaking Ability,” American Journal of Economics and Sociology 58. 1999. 43-56 Fry, Richard & Lowell, B. Lindsay. 2003. "The value of bilingualism in the U.S. labor market," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 57(1), pages 128141, October. Ratna, Nazmun N. & Graton, R. Quentin & Kompas, Tom. “Is Diversity Bad for Economic Growth? Evidence from Statelevel Data in the US.” Journal of SocioEconomics 38, 2009. 858-870. Holman, Rhonda. “Don’t leave foreign languages left behind.” The Wichita Eagle. Feb 09 2010. <http://www.kansas.com/2010/02/09/117 2748/dont-leave-foreignlanguagesbehind.html> “States with Official English, Inc. english.org/view/13> “Languages spoken in the United States” Vistawide World Languages & Cultures. Feb 20 2010. <http://www.vistawide.com/languages/u s_languages2.htm> English.” U.S <http://us- “Why Official English?” ProEnglish: English Language Advocates. Feb 20 2010. http://www.proenglish.org/issues/offeng /index.html 237 Appendix 238 www.youarewhatyoueat.com: The Religious Nature of Healthy Eating Blogs Kate Gundersen, Class of 2010 Introduction some healthy late-night tomorrow evening. Hunger strikes, and I am sitting in the library. Not having packed a nutritious apple like my smug neighbor in the next cubicle, I begin the search for nourishment. The library’s café offers a wide array of choices, and an intricate decision-making process ensues. A banana, perhaps? Healthy, for sure. My snack-toting neighbor might smile upon me like we belong to the same confraternity of fruit-worshippers, although I can almost hear the scoff of the environmental studies major to my left at my insensitivity to carbon emissions. Cherry Danish? No fiber or protein, or anything, really, but butter and sugar, so I’ll be hungry again in an hour. The glowing vending machine lures me to its glassy façade, and it appears I’ve internalized those anthropomorphic Peanut M&Ms characters: “You’re working so hard! Go ahead and indulge in this tasty treat. Candy makes you feel good!” I shove a dollar bill in the machine and the yellow package comes writhing down the glass. I do deserve these forbidden balls of highfructose corn syrup goodness! I do! I return to my desk, and apple girl’s look is one of undeniable disapproval and scorn. I should have never given in to that vending machine. I should have bought the banana. I vow to avoid those M&Ms for the foreseeable future, and to pack my own peanut butter sandwich for munching Food choices, preferences, and habits are incredibly complex, and influenced by biological, social, and cultural factors. The way we eat is crucial to understanding our selves and our society, and food has long been a focus of sociological and anthropological inquiry in various capacities (Mintz & DuBois 2002). With this perspective on food, the simple midnight snack in the library mentioned above is not as trivial as it appears: a closer look at the agonizing choice of Peanut M&Ms, for example, reveals how concerns of environmental justice, popular nutritional discourse, media and advertisement, peer judgments, and a myriad of other factors influence a seemingly “simple” food choice. As with nearly every aspect of American life, the internet is revolutionizing the way we eat. The increasing popularity of blogging (maintaining a “web log,” a personal website updated sporadically by its author, the “blogger”) has generated online forums for the discussion of many aspects of food, drink, cooking, dining, and eating. A particular niche of food blogs has emerged, devoted to the blogger’s documentation of her food intake (the bloggers are overwhelmingly female). Daily posts consist of 239 prominent, eye-catching photos of meals and snacks alongside detailed text narration of the day; these bloggers create the story of their lives with food as the central, organizing structure. The self-proclaimed purpose of the “healthy living blogs” is not for the blogger to engage in or promote extreme weight loss or calorie restriction, but to serve as a place to document her commitment to leading a “healthy,” “balanced” life, and to connect with others with similar goals. And others are certainly interested and reading. A true community has emerged around these blogs. Although nearly all interaction is internet-based, bloggers form relationships with each other and with their readers, who frequently contribute to the conversation via the “Comments” section at the end of each post. This paper will interpret these healthy-living blogs as religious in nature. The virtual community of bloggers and readers unite and rally around the belief in “healthy,” “balanced” living, asserting the Durkheimian “unified system of belief” that lies at the foundation of collective religious behavior (Thompson 1982:129). The bloggers explicitly state these values online then enact them, in a Geertzian sense, through daily “ritual” practices. The language and images that the bloggers publish on their daily posts will be analyzed in order to uncover how food is understood and practiced in the lives of these women, and to demonstrate the religious character of their communal journey towards “health.” With national obesity rates on the rise (CDC 2009) and a big-business food industry whose practices only exacerbate the problem, these bloggers appear to avoid this widespread American condition by staying consistently devoted to their pillars of nutrition and health. Delving into these blogs - these “extremely small matters,” (Geertz 1973:21) - offers perspective on the devotion and effort that are perhaps necessary to practice “good health” in this country. Furthermore, the public forum of the Internet has brought to light the typically “backstage” behaviors and emotions concerning everyday food consumption (Goffman 1956). The accessibility of the internet and the ability to blog – to connect and communicate with like-minded others throughout the nation and the world – has created and fostered the bloggers’ food-based religion and its surrounding This philosophy of food as a means to health, life balance, and fulfillment is common across all 20 of the blogs analyzed in this study. Food is about more than a slim body for these women; although they certainly exhibit a concern for staying trim, eating “well,” according to their definition, is linked to a deeper sense of personal accomplishment and empowerment. These blogs reflect a larger, societal perception that consumption is indicative of one’s moral character – that how we eat truly reflects who we are (Griffin & Berry 2003:45, Madden & Chamberlain 2004:585). The online community that has assembled around these blogs exhibits a strong devotion to the goal of health. They are steadfastly united to embody their common values, and to attain the virtue and satisfaction of a “healthy” lifestyle. 240 community. Through these healthyliving, this paper explores the burgeoning role of the internet in the personal negotiation of food choices and habits. Online activity has completely shaped and transformed the bloggers’ relationship with and understanding of food, and this influence is not isolated. The overwhelming ubiquity of the internet in everyday life implicates that it does - and will increasingly continue to affect the way we eat. can connote animalistic vitality, while a vegetarian diet can symbolize the consumer’s purity (through eating “whole” foods) and compassion for living creatures (Twigg 1983:28-29). Foods hold various and changing social meanings and connotations: drinking milk, for example, brings to mind both the purity and innocence of a small child, and the strong, calcium-rich body of an athlete (Atkinson 1983:10-11). In the United States and throughout the West, advertisements play a key role in enforcing the virtues attributed to foods – qualities that can be embodied by the consumer if only they purchase and eat the product. Atkinson (1983) discusses how health food marketing in particular draws on the myth of the pastoral, “natural” “good life,” luring customers to buy “farmhouse” bread or cheese that might transport them, too, back to the purity of the farm (15-16). Discussion of Relevant Literature No sociological or anthropological literature has been published regarding the specific blogs of this study, as these blogs are a recent and not particularly publicized phenomenon. However, the role of food in society has been exhaustively studied in the fields of sociology and anthropology. Food consumption patterns are driven by more than simple nutritional need (Mintz & DuBois 2002), and numerous theoretical frameworks have been created (and critiqued) to attempt to codify and understand the vital human act of eating, and its social implications (Wood 1995). This paper’s analysis is based upon the general understanding that food choice and habits can communicate information about the consumer’s social context and surrounding community (Wood 1995:1423; Anderson 2005:109-139; Bourdieu 1984:ch. 3; Atkinson 1983). Especially important is the assertion that culturallyascribed meanings and properties of food items themselves are thought to be transferred to the consumer when foods are eaten (Madden & Chamberlain 2004:584-586). Eating meat, for example, Madden and Chamberlain (2004) argue that especially as food choices are increasingly equated with physical health concerns such as obesity and heart disease, the pressure is high to avoid the “wrong” foods – foods that are culturally perceived as unhealthy or detrimental to the body (584-585). One who does “indulge” in M&Ms or French fries and subsequently exhibits an “unhealthy” (read: large) body is deemed irresponsible, lazy, lacking in selfcontrol, and a moral failure (Madden & Chamberlain 2004:585). It is the personal responsibility, and even moral duty, of the individual to effectively control the quantity and quality of food intake. McGuire (1988) uncovered this belief in her study of alternative, holistic health practice among suburban, middle-class 241 Americans. These communities often considered health to be a truly spiritual or religious endeavor; living free of illness implied physical and moral accomplishment (McGuire 1988:247249). The failure to achieve the “desired state defined as health” through personal control and discipline of behavior was considered “morally reprehensible” (McGuire 1988:249). The steadfast pursuit of this “morality” of food is certainly represented in the healthy-living blogs of this study. The internet has emerged as a forum to discuss and negotiate conflicting, confusing messages conveyed in American society about health, food choices, and the ideal body type. Increased access to the internet has allowed individuals to project their opinions and identities through the fairly new medium of personal home pages and, more recently, blogs (Harp & Tremayne 2006:248; Stern 2007:160-161). Blogging is a means of narrating and, thus, making sense of one’s life, identity, and situation in society (Bell 2007:102; Somers & Gibson 1994:58-59). Blogs and internet participation also foster social bonds and the support of community without any face-to-face interaction (Rettberg 2008:60-61). Griffin and Berry (2003) point to the transfer of Calvinist asceticism from the church to the world of capitalism as the reason why “consumption has come to be taken for granted as a morally correct ethos… a sense of social and moral standing come from what we consume and normative assumptions of what should be consumed” (45). Foods are thus deemed “good” or “bad” based on how they fit on the path towards health and, thus, morality (Madden & Chamberlain 2004:588-589). Advertisements especially exploit the notion that food choice dictates moral worth and frequently use religious rhetoric to do so: messages in food advertisement alternate between the call for restraint from “bad” foods, and the urge to indulge in the “sin” of forbidden ice cream bars or cheesecake (Griffin & Berry 2003; Madden & Chamberlain 2004:589). These advertisements suggest the serious implications of consuming any food product. Literature concerning the role of the internet in food preferences and practices is relatively sparse. One online niche that has been the focus of recent sociological study is that of pro-anorexia and pro-bulimia (“pro-ana” and “promia”) web sites and message boards. Contributors to these sites work to promote and encourage the selfdiscipline, control, and restraint necessary to achieve their unifying goal of the “thin body ideal” (Malson, 2009:357; Day & Keys 2008:7-8). The literature pertaining to these sites is most relevant in unpacking the sociological significance of online discourse of food consumption. The basic function of the pro-ana websites seems surprisingly similar to the food blogs’: to assert and perpetuate a common belief related to eating, and to When cultural influences communicate that the choice between an apple and a package of Peanut M&Ms will determine one’s inner worth, an enormous amount of discipline, restraint, and self-control seem necessary at all times when interacting with food. 242 Theory connect with others who share that belief (Day & Keys 2008, Malson 2009). Healthy-living blogs and pro-ana sites provide similar features (the ability to write about oneself or to respond to another contributor), and the users reflect a comparably regimented, methodical approach to food (Day & Keys 2008:6, 8). What is so interestingly different about these virtual spaces, though, is that the pro-ana sites are commonly viewed as deviant, disturbing, and undoubtedly unhealthy. The bloggers of this study, despite a similar preoccupation with food as demonstrated through the internet, are frequently considered to be pillars of health and, one could presume, morality. The conception of food as a means to inner goodness and an enlightened life is prevalent in the blogs of this research. Bloggers and readers conflate certain food choices and habits with the larger motivation of “good health” – the sign of true personal achievement and worth. The bloggers’ daily behaviors are regimented, timeconsuming, and driven by a common understanding that health is of utmost importance in life and existence – and that their behaviors are the means to achieve “good health.” In some ways, and with all due respect, the bloggers’ daily practices echo those of a Catholic who attends weekly confession, understanding this habit as a way to prove and enact her abstract belief in a loving and forgiving God. Similarly, a Jew who keeps a kosher kitchen practices these eating habits because he believes that following God’s law (as stated in biblical text) is the path to a religiously fulfilling life and, eventually, heaven. The healthy-living bloggers and formal religious believers share the perception of an inextricable link between collective, abstract, intangible belief and personal, active practices as a way to enact those beliefs. Although the bloggers do not physically unite for sporadic services or meetings – as followers of formal religion might – they use the internet to publicly affirm and discuss their beliefs and practices on a daily (or even thrice-daily) basis. These comparisons, however informal, suggest the typically religious intersection of strong belief and devoted practice within this cohesive community of bloggers. It should be noted that these bloggers do not comprise a subculture. Studying this new venue for the presentation of food practices fills a serious void in current literature concerning the role of the internet in constructing food-based identity and community. In the United States, being online has become as routine and habitual as gathering around the dinner table – in some cases, perhaps even more so. The healthy-living blogs of this study represent one of many ways that these two ubiquitous actions of everyday life – eating and internet use – intersect. The public nature of the internet, and particularly of blogs, has been widely studied (Harp & Tremayne 2006; Hevem 2004; Loft 2005; Rettberg 2008; Weber & Dixon 2007; Pauwels 2008). Investigation of these public virtual spaces as a means to understand current food practices, choice, and habits, and their societal implications, however, is largely absent in the existing literature. 243 Their aspiration for health, and approaches to reach this goal, are rooted firmly in the mainstream; in fact, their behaviors and philosophy often echo popular health-related discourse and trends, such as support for local, organic foods and the USDA’s food pyramid. Their behaviors, though embedded in the secular world, markedly embody the traits of a religion. their theory in order to convey the religious nature of the blogs of study. 1. Durkheim: A Unified System of Beliefs Emile Durkheim’s definition of religion notes that the existence of “a unified system of beliefs” is the foundation for the creation of a group of religious adherents (Thompson 1982:129). Specific beliefs are not inherently religious, though; rather, Durkheim asserts that, “once a goal is pursued by a whole people, it acquires, as a result of this unanimous adherence, a sort of moral supremacy which raises it far above private goals and thereby gives it a religious character” (Giddens 1972:23). It is the collectivity of belief in shared “sentiments and ideas” (Giddens 1972:243) that intensifies their significance and imbues them with religiosity. The healthy-living blogs of this study publicly affirm the shared value of “good health”; the discrete ways in which they enact this overarching goal can be interpreted through the second aspect of theoretical framework: In this paper, the niche of the healthy-living blogs will be interpreted as religious in nature using two aspects of major sociological frameworks regarding religion: Emile Durkheim’s conception of the church as a group with an explicit, unified system of common beliefs and values; and Clifford Geertz’s emphasis on ritual acts as the way in which church members concretize and manifest these shared beliefs. According to Durkheim, religion extends beyond the conventional conception of formal and organized religious practice (Giddens 1972:25). Rather, “religion is something eminently social”; the beliefs and practices of religion represent the “collective realities” of society itself (Thompson 1982:125). Religious practice or belief does not mandate a “God” to worship, a priest to preside over a service, or even a physical structure in which to gather (Giddens 1972:223). The virtual community surrounding these healthyliving blogs is certainly reflective of Durkheim’s and Geertz’s recognition of the religious nature of secular, social life. These theorists’ work on the subject of religion is extensive; this paper will draw on and discuss only a small portion of 2. Geertz: Ritual Practices as Models of and for Belief Clifford Geertz, in his essay “Religion as a Cultural System” (1993), asserts that collectively practiced behaviors or actions (“rituals”) are a means to concretize a devotion to abstract, intangible values (112). Carrying out a ritual action is a way to demonstrate religious beliefs to others: to use Twigg’s (1983) example of vegetarianism, abstaining from eating meat is a public exhibition of the vegetarian’s conviction that animal cruelty is immoral. Simultaneously, 244 though, Geertz explains that for the individual participant, religious ritual is an active step towards achieving the collective religious goal; rituals are “not only models of what they (the religious group] believe, but also models for the believing of it…men attain their faith as they portray it” (1993:114). In the performance of ritual, the system of belief is physically materialized and “the world as lived and the world imagined…become the same world” (Geertz 1993:112). The bloggers’ rituals include the meticulous preparation and consumption of meals, in addition to the reflection and discussion of their food choices through the act of updating the blog (“blogging”). The healthy-living bloggers’ active documentation of meals exhibits their belief system to an outside (online) viewer. At the same time, these ritual practices allow the bloggers to concretize and then perpetuate their values, allowing them to personally progress towards their wider goal of health. and concretize the abstract goal of a “healthy” lifestyle and allow the bloggers to move towards that goal. Methodology The starting point for the study of these blogs was Kath Eats Real Food,1 one of the most popular sites of this blogging niche. I investigated other healthy-living blogs through Kath’s “blogroll,” a feature wherein the blogger posts links to related blogs of interest. A list of 35 blogs was compiled (see Appendix 1, 2) that fit certain criteria: 1) the blog is updated nearly daily; 2) the purpose of the blog is to highlight a healthy, “normal” (in the blogger’s words) lifestyle, as opposed to attempts at extreme weight loss or dieting; 3) the blog records all meals of the blogger in a diary-style format, as opposed to sporadic recipes, or posts unrelated to food intake. This initial survey was meant to investigate the prevalence of these blogs, and supports the fact that this blogging is not an isolated activity, but that it is thriving and growing. While some of the blogs have been maintained for over a year (Kath Eats Real Food recently celebrated its second anniversary), several bloggers of the sample specifically credited the inspiration of other healthy-living blogs for the more recent creation of their own blog. It should be noted that females authored 34 of the 35 blogs on this list, and that bloggers hail from all across the United States and Canada, as do readers who contributed comments. This paper will prove that these healthy-living blogs do not just faintly echo the religiosity and moral implications often associated with food choices. Through the sociological lens of Durkheim and Geertz, the community surrounding these blogs functions as religious. Data analysis will demonstrate that: 1. The bloggers assert a “unified system of beliefs” pertaining to food and health. 2. Their eating habits, and the public commentary concerning those habits (the act of blogging), function as “rituals” that reinforce 1 245 http://katheats.com. From this master list of 35 blogs of similar structure and content, 20 were selected in order to study the “My Story” or “About Me” pages (see Appendix 1). These sections typically communicate the blogger’s general philosophy of food and health. The list was narrowed to 20 based on my assessment of which blogs best represented this community; for example, one blog, although it met the preliminary criteria, focused in much more detail on exercise habits than on food. This blog – and others similar to it were eliminated when forming the list of 20. The singular blog authored by a male was also eliminated, but not on the basis of the blogger’s gender. Admittedly, this selection process involves some level of personal bias. However, I was confident in my ability to choose the blogs that would provide the most food-related content and, thus, the most analyzable data. photos in these sections (see Data Sources). The 20 blogs were then codified by the life stage of the blogger: college life (18-22, attending an undergraduate institution); early adulthood (20s and early 30s, living independently or with a significant other); and middle age (mid- to late-30s, usually married and or with children). The blogs were also codified by popularity, determined by the average number of user comments per post: low popularity (0 – 20 comments per post); middle popularity (20 – 40 comments per post); high popularity (40+ comments per post). High-popularity bloggers could be considered the pseudocelebrities of this community. Corporations sometimes provide them with food items to review on the blog, or sponsor their attendance at nationwide blogging conferences because of their high site traffic. These high-popularity bloggers often make a small income from their blogging through advertisement and offers for freelance work. Data was collected from the “About Me” or similarly named sections of the 20 blogs, including all text and Table 1. Demographic Breakdown of 20-Blog Sample College Life Low Popularity Middle Popularity High Popularity (0-20 comments/post) (20-40 comments/ post) (40+ comments/post) 3 1 0 4 4 5 3 0 0 (ages 18-22) Early Adulthood (20s – early 30s) Middle Age (late 30s+) 246 With these classifications, the list of 20 blogs was then narrowed to a representative sample of 8 (see Appendix 3). A smaller sample allowed for a more detailed analysis of blog posts, while still ensuring that the sample represented the themes and trends of the wider community. The blogs of the smaller sample were chosen to reflect the frequency of the demographic codifications of the sample of 20. Again, this introduced my personal selection bias, but at this point in the research process I was following the 20 blogs almost daily, and had become familiar with the bloggers and their posting-style. Thus, I chose a sample that both fit the distribution of the original sample and reflected what I believed to be a diversity of perspective and voice. The majority of the blogs of this nature are authored by females in Early Adulthood, and the 8blog sample reflects this fact. Table 2. Demographic Breakdown of 8 Blogs Chosen for Detailed Analysis College Life Low Popularity Middle Popularity High Popularity (0-20 comments/post) (20-40 comments/ post) (40+ comments/post) NYCollegEats K’s Good Eats _ (ages 18-22) Early Adulthood (20s – early 30s) Kath Eats Real Food Danica’s Daily Healthy and Sane Carrots ‘n’ Cake Middle Age Running with a Recipe (late 30s+) _ _ Krista’s Kravings ordinary series of events. If the blog posts were consistent throughout the week, the three days with the most text and photo content were chosen. Again, this introduces my personal selection bias, but posts were chosen solely based on my perception of the quantity – as opposed to targeted quality – of data. 34 posts were chosen in all (see Data Three days of blog posts were selected from each these 8 blogs, between the dates of 6 October 2009 and 13 October 2009 (see Data Sources). This range of dates was chosen for its “neutrality” from holiday vacations or feasts. The week-long window allowed for flexibility if the blog had not been recently updated for some reason, or if a post reflected a particularly out-of-the247 Sources), as some bloggers post more than once a day. exploration of the latent themes and similarities of these women’s experiences than would the quantitative results of a survey or a similar, more wide-reaching method. The data collected from the selected posts included all text, photos, and user comments published on the selected dates. Drawing on Keats’ (2009) methodology, an initial reading of the textual “About Me” data was conducted in order to become familiar with the context of each blog and to detect overarching themes and similarities. After the initial appraisal, a more specific reading was conducted to address these themes. During this second reading, data was codified into four subcategories that showed the daily “ritual” practices of the bloggers as enactments of their wider belief system: language used to explicitly indicate food as “good” or “bad”; language used to describe or reflect on indulgence; indications of control and agency; and mental/ emotional reactions to food intake. Research Limitations The greatest limitation posed by this research is the homogeny of the sampled bloggers. All were female, between the ages of 18 and 45, mostly Caucasian, and with socio-economic means that allowed for nutritious, fresh food on their plates on any given day. In terms of financial ability, this depiction of eating is far from the reality that many Americans face, but healthy-living blogs capturing a lower-income experience are essentially non-existent. Additionally, a male perspective was largely absent from these blogs, save the sporadic mention of a husband or boyfriend. This mirrors previous literature showing that men are more likely to generate “filter-type” blogs (those focused on news, politics, and the spreading of information) than women, who tend towards communicative, journal-type blogs like the ones of this study (Bell 2007:99-100; Harp & Tremayne 2006:250). Research exploring the pressure surrounding food choices for people of various social locations and backgrounds – and the role of the internet in those choices - would reveal whether the same implications of food appear across a wider spectrum. Qualitative content analysis is an effective way to understand these bloggers’ nuanced perspectives on food. The blog is a method of personal narration, and because these healthyliving bloggers are comfortable and open with their online community, the blogs are a space for an honest presentation of feelings, beliefs, and experiences, in addition to more objective information like food intake. The blogs are a lens through which to view the complex, usually private personal negotiation of eating and health. They demonstrate the ways in which food structures these women’s lives, and the influence of online activity in their everyday practices. Close reading of the bloggergenerated text allows for a deeper Analysis of Data An analysis of the textual content of these healthy-living blogs proves the blogging community to be a religious one, using the key aspects of Durkheim’s and Geertz’s definitions. 248 attitude towards food consumption is overwhelmingly “anti-diet”; the bloggers understand dieting as an unsustainable means of food choice that “deprives” the eater of cravings and pleasures. The pattern of eating that the bloggers support and believe in is considered a “lifestyle” as opposed to the temporality of a “diet.” They believe in eating a balance of different food groups (to use the term so popularized in nutrition discourse), emphasizing “healthy” foods and only occasionally eating “bad,” “unhealthy” foods. 50% of the blogs explicitly state this belief by using the words “indulgence” “moderation” or “deprive.” There is a statement of faith that “it will all even out in the end” between healthy food and treats.1 Jenn affirms that: “the occasional pigout or rich treat will (not] alter your entire weight loss diet or health for the duration of your life”.2 The bloggers believe in indulging one’s cravings from time to time, and that a healthy lifestyle is liberating as opposed to limiting and oppressive, like dieting. 1. A Unified System of Beliefs The bloggers of this online religion designate a specific section of their blogs to clearly and candidly state their core values concerning food and health. 20 blogs (see Appendix 2) were analyzed for this section of analysis to determine the “unified system of beliefs” (Thompson 1972:129) of the community. All 20 included mini-autobiographies of the bloggers (sections entitled “About Me,” “My Story,” “My Journey”), and all 20 mention, in varying levels of detail, the bloggers’ food attitudes or philosophy. These sections of the blogs function as explicit manifestation of the bloggers’ collective, guiding beliefs, as there is a great deal of overlap among these philosophies related to health. The bloggers reveal additional information about their beliefs throughout their daily posts, but this section of analysis will focus specifically on the About Me sections. The overarching theme that emerges from the analysis is that of “balance.” 50% of the sample (n=20) specifically use the word “balance” in the About Me section, and 2 include the word in their blog’s subtitle (e.g. “Carrots ‘n’ Cake: A Blog Dedicated to Healthy Balance”). Even when bloggers did not explicitly use the word “balance,” the data addresses this overarching theme in three ways: 1.a. Balance Moderation of Diet: Indulging However, striking the balance between indulgence and eating “healthy” is complex and nuanced, and seems to require a great deal of vigilance. Many bloggers explicitly state which foods should be part of a daily diet in the About Me section. Foods mentioned as healthy and good include: vegetables; fresh produce; products that are natural, unprocessed, organic, free-range, “whole,” or local. Usually, though, the in The most common food-related belief of the bloggers is that eating healthily does not entail restriction of any food, no matter its caloric value. The 1 Eat Like Me. 1 October 2007. Let’s Take a Step Back and Review. 2 Jenn’s Menu and Lifestyle Blog. About. http://www.j3nn.net/about/. 249 moderation. (Emphasis present in 4 the original) term “healthy food” is used without specification, as though the reader should immediately understand what this categorization entails. Bloggers are much more explicit in noting indulgence foods to avoid and eat in moderation: Snickers, pizza, full-fat ice cream, birthday cake, fast food, Little Debbie bars, “treats” or “dessert” in general, chocolate, candy, and French fries were all mentioned by name. Although the bloggers encourage the inclusion of all foods into one’s diet, they are more acutely aware and expressive of “bad” foods to be avoided. It is clear that striking the balance between different varieties of food is complex, and that the call to indulge is tempered by a wider cognizance of health: This philosophy of a delicate balance of eating that requires surveillance, mindfulness, and careful control is internalized throughout the blog community. It is manifest in the daily food choices of the bloggers, as demonstrated in the posts examined in section 2 of this paper’s analysis. 1.b. Balance of Food and Exercise: Calories In vs. Calories Out Every blog in the sample acknowledges the necessity of physical activity in achieving a healthy lifestyle. Food consumption and exercise are seen as interdependent, and are often referred to as an inseparable entity (“Eating Healthy and Staying Fit”; “eating and exercise”). Biologically, maintaining an equal balance between calories consumed and calories burned ensures weight stability, and the bloggers recognize this reality. Although none of the bloggers are self-proclaimed “calorie counters,” comparing food intake to levels of physical activity is an accepted duty of daily life for nearly all the bloggers - especially because they believe in occasional indulgence in caloric treats. Maintaining the right balance ensures that one will “never feel deprived”5 because calories eaten will not exceed calories expended. Exercising more If you love chocolate, sausages, ice cream, candy, French fries, wine/beer or something else less healthful then by all means have it and don’t deprive yourself. I do think we all should practice some form of restraint to best benefit our longterm health, as these “unhealthy” or “bad” foods…do not provide the body 3 with…nutrients. If you want to lose weight once and for all, commit to a new lifestyle that includes a “diet” filled with healthy, nutritious foods 80% of the time, but allow yourself controlled portions of the “fun” foods for the remaining 20%. Don’t think you can’t splurge once in a while. Let yourself go crazy once a week, but in 4 Carrots ‘n’ Cake. Weight Loss. http://carrotsncake.com/weight-loss. 5 Kath Eats Real Food. Kath. http://www.katheats.com/kath-2/. 3 Eat Like Me. 1 October 2007. Let’s Take a Step Back and Review. 250 means that one can “afford” a little more “wiggle room” in caloric intake.6 and general well-being are all equated with “proper” health-related behaviors; these feelings are especially clear in the stories of the bloggers who have transformed previously-unhealthy eating habits and now claim to be reaping the physical and emotional benefits of their knack for balance. Elina states that, “I am fit, healthy and happy, and that’s what truly matters” as opposed to the number on her scale: “I’m much more in tune with what I want, physically and mentally.”9 After a long journey towards weight loss and health, Kath claims, “I feel radiant every day…I have never felt better about myself or been happier about where I am in life, and I believe it all stems from a boost in self confidence.”10 Clearly, the bloggers believe in the power of physical health to greatly influence their emotional wellbeing. How and what they eat extends beyond physical implications and affects the whole self. Similar to McGuire’s (1988) findings about suburban, middleclass practitioners of alternative healing, physical health for these bloggers also indicates moral, virtuous accomplishment, and they wholeheartedly believe in this correlation. Four bloggers point to exercise as the turning point in the “conversion” to a healthy lifestyle. These About Me sections narrated the bloggers’ transformations from, “a beer-guzzling, anti-gym college student”7 to a runner or spinning fanatic. 14 of the bloggers express a true enjoyment of exercise, even a “passion,” and associate happiness, positive self-esteem, and stress relief to physical activity. The constant attention needed to maintain this balance can be taxing and difficult, though: Monica confesses, “I love running, but I also love eating and unfortunately I eat more than I burn.”8 Bloggers recommend pursuing a variety of exercise routines to avoid boredom, and acknowledge the difficulty of finding time to run or bike when working at a 9to-5 desk job. Regardless, the blogging community believes in the virtue and necessity of exercise, and in monitoring and maintaining a balance between physical activity and food. 1.c. Balance of Life in General: Healthy Habits Impact Everything Many bloggers declare that balance in the personal spheres of food and health extend to wider aspects of their lives, which can be hectic and full of commitments to work, significant others, and children. The titles and selfproclaimed purposes of the blogs The bloggers believe that combining healthy eating with regular exercise – maintaining these first two aspects of balance – influences much more than the shape of their bodies. Happiness, self-confidence, self-esteem, 6 Eat Like Me. 1 October 2007. Let’s Take a Step Back and Review. 7 Healthy Tipping Point. Tips. http://www.healthytippingpoint.com/tips. 8 Run, Eat, Repeat. About. http://runeatrepeat.com/?page_id=2. 9 Healthy and Sane. About. http://healthyandsane.com/about/. 10 Kath Eats Real Food. Kath. http://www.katheats.com/kath-2/. 251 my focus is on healthy eating, 12 wellness, fitness, and happiness. indicate that a devotion to health provides structure for the bloggers’ lives. Personal histories are narrated in terms of food habits and weight, and one blog (Healthy and Sane) is subtitled, “My Life in Food.” Additionally, food-related metaphors are used in abundance: “I hope you enjoy the journey with me as I fulfill all of my life’s cravings!”11; “Running with a Recipe: Savoring the Ingredients of My Life.” When it is clear that food is the critical, structuring aspect of life for these bloggers, the encompassing belief of the blogging community becomes present: that eating “right” and maintaining these forms of balance bring about general happiness, fulfillment, and a sense of inner virtue. Because the attainment of “health” is so linked to individual food practices, the bloggers believe that achieving this goal is always possible for the individual, if only she takes the initiative to make the correct choices. I was…very unhappy with the relationship I had with food and exercise, and I knew I was the only 13 person who could change it. The bottom line is, you can be healthy if you want to. Make the choice. There’s no secret. Move more, eat healthy. If you put your health first, weight loss comes naturally. (Emphasis present in 14 original) It is clear from an analysis of About Me sections of these blogs that the bloggers indeed exhibit Durkheim’s “unified system of beliefs.” The bloggers are dedicated to the attainment of health as a constant negotiation of balance, and they assert their responsibility and capacity to “take control” and achieve these goals. No matter how long the work day or how tempting the cupcake, these bloggers prioritize their goals of balanced eating and exercise; they believe that these behaviors are the key to overall well-being and purpose, and that they are in control. Maintaining balance on so many levels does indeed require control, but the bloggers are encouraged and empowered to exhibit agency in their own lives: The following section of analysis results from a detailed reading of a sample of 8 blogs, chosen from the previous group of 20 (see Appendix 3). Three days of posting were selected from these blogs, resulting in an analysis of 34 total posts (some bloggers posted more than once a day). While a wider array of blogs was helpful in determining the overall principles and beliefs of this With a free gym membership and a new outlook on life, I was finally able to take control of my weight…Today, 12 Carrots ‘n’ Cake. My Journey. http://carrotsncake.com/weight-loss/my-journey. 13 Healthy Tipping Point. Caitlin. http://www.healthytippingpoint.com/about. 14 Kath Eats Real Food. Kath. http://www.katheats.com/kath-2/. 11 Krista’s Kravings. Krista – About Me. http://www.blogger.com/profile/14597868827300 760281. 252 community, closely investigating this smaller sample allowed for a deeper understanding of the day-to-day practices (“rituals”) of these bloggers. blogs. Through daily food behaviors, the bloggers emphasize this value of balance by clearly demarcating “good” foods from “bad,” and discussing the ways that they navigate equilibrium between the two. 2. Ritual Practices as Models of and for Belief 2.a.i. “Good food” For the sake of this analysis, the “rituals” of the bloggers were defined as the meals and snacks that are documented daily on their blogs, in addition to the act of blogging itself – the generation of discussion and commentary regarding their own actions. Because food is the central organizing structure of these bloggers’ lives, the blogs are rife not only with photos and objective descriptions of what was eaten, but also with subjective commentary and reflections on these “rituals.” Analysis of the discourse surrounding food choices and habits shows that eating is indeed ritual for these women, in the Geertzian sense of the term. In publicly publishing their food habits online, the bloggers demonstrate their actions as a guide for the navigation of health (a model of belief). Additionally, the way that these women eat and reflect on their eating is an active means of embodying the selfprofessed goals and values of the About Me sections (a model for belief). The bloggers’ documentation of their rituals of everyday life concretizes and enacts their belief system of balance, and the internet is an indispensable tool in their ritual. Analysis of the daily blog posts reveals both explicit and subtle ways that the bloggers denote what they believe to be “good” foods. There is often a concerted effort to highlight certain traits of a food product when it especially follows collective food preferences. Krista notes that her slice of banana bread is, “wholesome and homemade”15 and describes a photo as “a gorgeous, delicious, organic honey crisp apple”16. Ava deems Chobani yogurt to be “the ideal study fuel since it contains twice the protein of regular yogurt and tons of calcium”17. Foods that are extolled as “good” frequently possess inherent traits such as nutritional content and provenance (organic, from a Farmer’s Market, in season, etc.). And although “processed” foods are largely discouraged by the bloggers, certain characteristics can redeem them: “without added sugar”18 and “a short list of ingredients that are all pronouncable and recognizable,”19 for example. “Good” foods, though, are not only inherently nutritional - they are also assessed in 15 Krista’s Kravings. 6 October 2009. Dinner Pancakes. 16 Krista’s Kravings. 13 October 2009. Couch Potato. 17 NYCollegEats. 7 October 2009. Greek Yogurt Gods. 18 Running With a Recipe. 9 October 2009. Versatile Veggie. 19 NYCollegEats. 7 October 2009. Greek Yogurt Gods. 2.a. Balance of Diet The bloggers commonly affirmed the need for balance between “healthy,” virtuous food and occasional indulgence foods in the About Me sections of their 253 terms of the satiety they can deliver. The “best” foods in the eyes of the bloggers are nutritionally sound while also being, “Delish! And filling!”20 The significance of satiety will be discussed further in the following section of analysis (2.b.i.). Although this exacting devotion to oatmeal is common across so many of the healthy-living blogs, Kath Eats Real Food sets the standard for the “worship” of oatmeal. Her site includes an entire tabbed section entitled “Tribute to Oatmeal,” dedicated to “the world’s greatest breakfast!”22 The section includes 123 high-quality, almost pornographically detailed photographs of various oats combinations, with links to the meticulous preparation directions to each, and an embedded video clip of her cooking technique.23 This dedication towards the daily ritual of oatmeal proves it to be the pinnacle of “good” food – oatmeal is simultaneously nutritious, satiating, and tasty, and it allows for personal agency and control in its concoction. Oatmeal stands out across the blogs as the epitome of a “good” food. 6 of the 8 bloggers ate oatmeal at least once during the three-day sampling period, and all take pride in their customizations of the stereotypically plain, boring food. Granola, nut butter, fruits, and infinite other toppings are added to the oatmeal in different variations each day, and recorded in painstaking detail. The blogs rarely include precise food measurements (even when the bloggers publish “recipes” they usually encourage approximation) but one’s morning oatmeal is frequently described in depth: 2.a.ii. “Bad food” By frequently including “good” foods in their daily meals and snacks, and by commenting on the virtues of these food products, the bloggers positively enact their abstract beliefs through ritual. According to the About Me data, “bad,” indulgent foods are also permitted for the bloggers’ - but only in specific manner that maintains acceptable balance. In the same way that eating and narrating a nutritious meal of “good” food is ritual for these bloggers, so is a day of eating that includes the “bad.” After all, the bloggers clearly communicate that they oppose restriction and dieting, and that “it will • 1/3 cup oats, milk, water, pinch salt • 1 small banana • 1 tbsp raisins • ½ tbsp chia seeds • 1/3 cup cooked wheatberries, stirred in at end • Splash vanilla • Sprinkle Mix My Granola • A few toasty almonds • Packet Barney Butter that didn’t come out of the packet as nicely as I had envisioned21 20 22 Carrots ‘n’ Cake. 10 October 2009. Errands to the Max. 21 Kath Eats Real Food. 6 October 2009. WBO. Kath Eats Real Food. 19 February 2008. Tribute to Oatmeal. 23 Ibid. 254 all even out in the end.”24 Just as the bloggers’ comments and descriptions of “healthy” food manifest their system of beliefs, the discourse surrounding indulgence is equally part of the process of “attain(ing] their faith as they portray it” (Geertz 1993:114). of the 8 blogs in this sample utilized the emoticon in conjunction with a “bad” eating habit. I came to interpret this playful, end-of-sentence smiley face to translate in layman’s terms to: “I know I really shouldn’t be doing this, but…I am.” The emoticon followed confessions of an extra sip of wine, a free cupcake sample, a few dips into the bowl of candy corn, a square of chocolate during class, and numerous other “indulgences.” Smiley faces were also used in conjunction with condemned practices regarding portion control: “I didn’t even bother with a plate! ;)”28 The emoticon in itself truly functions as a micro-level representation of the bloggers’ ritual. It is a “model of belief” because it signifies a “bad” behavior to others. Simultaneously, the smiley allows the blogger to actively document a transgression, contemplate it in her striving for balance, and continue on the path toward “balance” and “health.” It is an enactment of the religious process – a “model for belief.” In some cases, the bloggers overtly address the fact that a food is “unhealthy” or “bad.” Regarding a restaurant’s jalapeño poppers, Danica states, “I am pretty sure there isn’t anything healthy about them, but, sometimes you just have to go for it!”25 This acknowledgement, though, is usually accompanied by some statement of justification for eating the “bad” food, even if the treat seems to be innocuous and to fit in with an otherwise healthy diet. An after-dinner shmear of Nutella is okay because its vehicle is whole-grain toast26; frozen yogurt with sprinkles is allowed because it is only available at a certain faraway shop – “when in Rome, right!?”27 This explicit admittance of “bad” eating clarifies the line between “good” and “bad” foods and denotes accepted reasons for indulgence in the “bad.” 2.a.iii. The Best of Both Worlds It is more common, however, for the bloggers to narrate their indulgences or other deplorable food-related behaviors in more subtle ways. The unexpected player in this enactment of “bad” is the emoticon: the online version of the smiley face, formed by typing a colon adjacent to a close parenthesis :). 6 The foods of highest veneration on these blogs, though, are at the convergence of the “good” and “bad” extremes. There is constant comparison of “healthy” foods to their indulgent counterparts. A “good” food that tastes like something more decadent and “bad” is valued and praised: squash roasted in the oven “tastes just like ‘fries’ this way”29; “These bagels seriously reminded me of croissants”30; a granola bar 24 28 Eat Like Me. 1 October 2007. Let’s Take a Step Back and Review. 25 Danica’s Daily. 17 October 2009. Rolly Polly. 26 Healthy and Sane. 6 October 2009. Good Girl. 27 K’s Good Eats. 13 October 2009. Welcome Back. Carrots ‘n’ Cake. 12 October 2009. Not a Happy Camper. 29 Danica’s Daily. 17 October 2009. Rolly Polly. 30 Krist’as Kravings. 6 October 2009. Dinner Pancakes. 255 “reminded me of a peanut butter chocolate chip oatmeal cookie.”31 Food products that are nutritionally virtuous and embody the taste qualities of indulgence are highly appreciated. Oatmeal often verges on the “bad,” which explains its esteemed status: with apples and vanilla yogurt, it transforms into apple crisp; with peanut butter and chocolate chips, a Reese’s cup; with banana and strawberry, a banana split. These foods are the most significant in the bloggers’ diets because they singlehandedly facilitate the maintenance of balance between good and bad: they are nutritious and “healthy” while simultaneously satisfying taste cravings for the “bad.” control their own health; and the idea that food habits affect emotional, mental, and physical well-being. These ideas frame and explain the intense desire to maintain a balanced diet. Because the balance between “good” and “bad” influences nearly every aspect of the blogger’s life, serious control of the self and of outside situations is critical to consistently reach this balance. This is the essential underpinning of the bloggers’ conception of health, and it is demonstrated and enacted through their “ritual.” 2.b.i. Agency and Control Eating, for the bloggers, is in some respects an extremely internalized and personal experience. Although they frequently share meals with spouses or friends and subsequently publish them online, the bloggers demonstrate that making “correct” food choices is possible in any context, so long as they are in control and responsible for their own desires and actions. There is a collective assertion among the bloggers that eating should only occur when one is truly hungry; eating out of boredom or sadness happens occasionally on the blogs, but these behaviors are acknowledged and chided more seriously than with the playful emoticon: “And I wish this was it. I was full and satisfied. Did I stop eating? Nope.”32 Consequently, satiety is a ubiquitous topic of discussion; each of the 8 bloggers in this sample discussed their “fullness” at least once a day (usually much more frequently) within the three days of post analysis. A collective goal of these women is to strike balance between the realms of “good” and “bad” food. Accordingly, their ritual practice consists of the physical act of eating, but it also comprises monitoring, discussion, and commentary concerning which foods to extol and which to avoid. The bloggers’ ritual practices mark the separation between “good” and “bad” foods and demonstrate their navigation of these extremes. In posting their habits and thoughts online, the bloggers manifest their beliefs for others (a model of religion), and to progress through their own journey towards the higher goals of their religion (a model for religion). 2.b. Balance of Life in General Two further tenets of the bloggers’ food-centered belief system are represented in their daily rituals: the power and agency of the individual to 32 31 Healthy and Sane. 13 October 2009. My Head is Getting to Me. K’s Good Eats. 9 October 2009. Replay. 256 These bloggers “listen” to their hunger levels – they analyze them closely, and are aware of the best practices to “solve” a certain intensity of hunger or to maintain satiety over long periods of time. Specific combinations of oatmeal and toppings, for example, are praised as “delicious and tummy filling”33 and “the perfect pre-run fuel.”34 One afternoon, Kath states that, “I can’t believe I wasn’t hungrier (at 2:00PM] but whenever I have coffee mid-morning I’m less hungry for lunch.”35 This constant awareness and monitoring of hunger levels often informs eating decisions. If breakfast was surprisingly filling, the blogger chooses a smaller lunch; if preparing dinner will take half an hour, the blogger eats a snack that she knows will perform well in the given situation. Asserting control begins for the bloggers with a sharp cognizance of their own bodies, and continues with the invention of the perfect “antidote” to hunger. The bloggers state their firm belief in the power of the responsible individual to make positive food-related changes in the About Me section, and their preoccupation with satiety is a fundamental enactment of this belief. a considerable amount of effort to plan ahead. Meals are often packed from home to avoid inadequate food offerings in offices, airports, school cafeterias, or on the road. Kath devotes an entire post (13 photos) to document a day’s lunch, snacks, and dinner, packed on her kitchen counter for a lengthy evening of nutrition courses: “a good example of me eating on the go!”36 When the bloggers’ food intentions are thwarted, as Tina’s were during an unexpected 10-hour visit ” to the dentist, they are “cranky! 37 (picture is an angry devil-emoticon). These practices of self-surveillance and extensive planning not only manifest and enact the bloggers’ system of beliefs; they also serve as a means to assert control in an overwhelming, chaotic world. In this way, the bloggers’ rituals function similarly to those of the suburban holistic health groups of McGuire’s (1988) research. These groups practiced yoga, meditation, and alternative medicine during times of illness to exhibit their personal power and control during frightening circumstances (McGuire 1988:229). The bloggers’ consistent health-related habits and practices are similarly empowering and grounding. Beyond individual, bodily cues for eating, the bloggers’ food habits are also structured around external factors of life: work, children, spouses, and other obligations. In order to skirt these impediments to eating how they want and when they want, the bloggers exhibit 2.b.ii. Mental and Emotional Impact of Eating Food clearly structures the lives of the bloggers: the narration of their days is based on the retelling of meals; they devote extensive energy and effort to 33 Running With a Recipe. 7 October 2009. Not a Day Goes By. 34 NYCollegEats. 7 October 2009. Greek Yogurt Gods. 35 Kath Eats Real Food. 13 October 2009. Fun Run + Sun. 36 Kath Eats Real Food. 7 October 2009. Prepped, Packed, Cleaned. 37 Carrots ‘n’ Cake. 12 October 2009. Not a Happy Camper. 257 fulfilling their belief of “healthy” eating; most importantly, they take the time to broadcast these habits and feelings in an online public forum. The ritual practice of blogging attests to the bloggers’ most intangible food belief that “good” eating brings about a good, happy, fulfilling life – and proves the eater to be inherently good herself. Tina, consuming too many beers and tailgate snacks taints her memory of an otherwise enjoyable day with friends.39 Danica feels, “like a rolly polly – so full and sorta greased out” after eating rich steaks and dessert at a restaurant.40 Elina perhaps expresses these feelings most overtly: I’ve been feeling kind of down for the past few days because of my snacking, so today when the urge to buy a cookie hit, I ignored it. Typically I’m a proponent of actually satisfying my cravings…but when it gets out of control, I need to ‘detox’ a bit with cleaner eats and more nutritious foods. It’s all about balance! As you’ll see below, I wasn’t eating carrot sticks all day – my food was still satisfying, 41 mentally and physically. In analyzing the textual data, it is clear that food plays a significant role in the bloggers’ feeling of overall wellbeing. Food has the power to alter moods: oatmeal is rejuvenating on a cold morning, and a new package of Greek yogurt can brighten an otherwise “dismal” day38. Conversely, feeling like one has overindulged or made the wrong choices can be depressing and even debilitating. Just as the characteristics of the warm, comforting, wholesome bowl of oatmeal seem transferred to the blogger upon consumption, the same can be said for “bad” foods. The effect of “bad” food is perhaps even heightened for the bloggers because (as discussed in section 2.a.) they have such an acute awareness of what ought to be eaten in moderation. Additionally (as discussed in section 2.b.i.) the bloggers feel an enormous sense of personal accountability for their food-related choices. Overindulgence does not simply hold physical implications of weight gain; a food-related falter is a failure of the blogger to assert her control and fulfill her personal obligation to be healthy. The blogger has transgressed a tenet of her religion, and the discourse in the posts of this analysis proves this. For Food truly affects all aspects of these bloggers’ lives. They expressed this sentiment hypothetically in the About Me sections of the blogs, and they embody it through their daily eating/blogging ritual actions. The incredible power that the bloggers have ascribed to food - as a means to happiness, fulfillment, and personal success and worth – impels their devotion to balance the “good” and “bad” through self-control. The practices are so reliably and meticulously carried out because the bloggers believe them to be inextricably linked to something larger. Like so many religious followers, the bloggers truly have faith in the greater ramifications of their everyday actions. It 39 Carrots ‘n’ Cake. 11 October 2009. Chili + Football. 40 Danica’s Daily. 17 October 2009. Rolly Polly. 41 Healthy and Sane. 6 October 2009. Good Girl. 38 NYCollegEats. 7 October 2009. Greek Yogurt Gods. 258 is this ethereal relationship between practice and belief that proves this group as religious. these women’s religion could not be publicly shared or perpetuated. The religion would cease to exist, as would the structuring rituals of the bloggers’ everyday lives. The ability to blog has undoubtedly impacted these women’s experience of eating, a fundamental practice of physical and social life. Concurrently, their blogging allows for an unprecedented opportunity to explore the nuances of food-related behavior and philosophy. Conclusion When first introduced to these blogs, some readers might be taken aback: the diligent dietary updates, extensive photography, and scrutinizing self-commentary and policing appear to be compulsive and bizarre behaviors. Why do these people think we care about what they eat? Where do they find the time to do all this? Most importantly, why are they so obsessed with food? In many ways, the new reader is correctly appraising the situation; as the blogs posts show, these women demonstrate a visibly dogged devotion to specific eating habits. However, textual analysis of the blogs illustrates the logical reasoning behind these practices: the bloggers steadfastly perform their “rituals” because they sincerely believe the practices will lead to the venerated condition of “health.” Being healthy connotes personal achievement, righteousness, and value of the self. Understanding this overarching, collective belief shows the bloggers’ daily practices (extensive tinkering with oatmeal; pursuit of organic produce; or a guilt-infused emoticon, for example) as completely valid within their ideological, religious context. The bloggers’ faith in the posited outcome of their rituals, coupled with their devotion to maintain the practices necessary to the definitive goodness of health, proves them to indeed be religious through the theoretical definitions given by Durkheim and Geertz. Additionally, without the online medium of blogging, Discussion Because of the demographic make-up of their authors, these blogs could easily be dismissed as selfindulgent excuses for privileged women to flaunt their food preferences. But to combat this interpretation, I return to the scenario presented at the opening of this paper involving the midnight Peanut M&Ms in the library. Although that situation is dramatized, the daily decisions we make concerning food are complex and often daunting. In the United States, consumers are constantly bombarded with the cultural messages of advertisement encouraging them to eat a certain way; with promises to “lose weight quick” endorsed by rail-thin or muscle-man celebrities; with the notion that eating “how you’re supposed to” produces a good person, while everyone else is a fat, irresponsible failure. The bloggers’ monitoring and close documentation of their food intake, then, is not unreasonable. If food choice is accepted as indicative of one’s moral, personal worth and identity, it deserves the time, energy, attention, and care that the bloggers demonstrate. And the internalization of the deep moral 259 Bafflement, suffering, and a sense of intractable ethical paradox are all…radical challenges to the proposition that life is comprehensible and that we can…orient ourselves effectively within it – challenges which any religion, however “primitive,” which hopes to persist must attempt somehow to cope. (100) implications of food consumption does not simply affect the women of these blogs. After all, “you are what you eat” is a ubiquitous adage throughout the United States, and that rhetoric is used throughout public and personal discourse. In his recent New York Times article “Rules to Eat By,” acclaimed food writer Michael Pollan (2009) addressed the question plaguing the bloggers and so many Americans: “If we can’t rely on the marketers or the government or even the nutritionists to guide us through the supermarket woods, then who can we rely on?” Continually escalating national obesity rates prove that current societal food messages are far from curative (CDC 2009). Pollan (2009) suggests that navigating the treacherous task of eating right mandates a reliance on others we know and trust: “an informal, unsanctioned way of negotiating our eating lives that becomes indispensable at a time when official modes of talking about food have suffered a serious loss of credibility.” I would argue that this is the function of the healthy-living blogs. In a food climate where the stakes seem high (“Do you even know what non-organic produce does to your/your child’s/your spouse’s body?”) and conflicting paths to “health” battle for our attention and our dollars, the bloggers hold fast to their religious beliefs and practices, using the internet as their essential tool. Geertz (1993) further explains a purpose of religion in his essay Religion as a Cultural System: Religion is a source of solace and order in the face of chaos and uncertainty. Through the public, collective assertion of their food-related beliefs, and unwavering practices that enact and embody these values, the bloggers rally around their religion of health. In making the private negotiation of eating public and communal, the bloggers answer Pollan’s (2009) call for “informal” eating commandments. The blogs of this study provide a model for this necessary food-based support network. 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A Qualitative Analysis of Vietnamese Adolescent Identity Exploration Within and Outside an Ethnic Enclave. Journal of Youth Adolescence, 38, 672 – 690. Pollan, M. (2009, October 6). Rules to Eat By. New York Times. Retrieved December 9, 2009 from http://www.nytimes.com/. 262 Walker, K. (2000). ‘It’s Difficult to Hide It’: The Presentation of Self on Internet Home Pages. Qualitative Sociology, 23 (1), 99 – 120. Retrieved from Academic Search Premier. Cultural Omnivorousness, Social Distinction and Dining Out. Sociology, 33 (1), 105 – 127. Retrieved from SAGE Publications. Wood, R. (1995). Chapter 1: Food and Social Theory: States of the Art. In The Sociology of the Meal (pp. 1-45). Edinburgh, Scotland: Edinburgh University Press. Warde, A., Martens, L., & Olsen, W. (1999). Consumption and the Problem of Variety: Data Sources Carrots ‘n’ Cake. (2009, October 10). Errands to the Max. Message posted to http://carrotsncake.com/2009/10/errand s-to-the-max.html. Carrots ‘n’ Cake. Weight Loss. Message posted to http://carrotsncake.com/weight-loss. Danica’s Daily. About. Message posted to http://danicasdaily.com/about/. Carrots ‘n’ Cake. (2009, October 11). Chili + Football. Message posted to http://carrotsncake.com/2009/10/chilifootball.html. Danica’s Daily. (2009, October 12). Role Reversal. Message posted to http://danicasdaily.com/role-reversal/. Carrots ‘n’ Cake. (2009, October 11). Sweet Sunday Morning. Message posted to http://carrotsncake.com/2009/10/sweetsunday-morning.html. Danica’s Daily. (2009, October 13). Terrific Tortellini Toss. Message posted to http://danicasdaily.com/terrifictortellini-toss/. Carrots ‘n’ Cake. (2009, October 12). First of the Season. Message posted to http://carrotsncake.com/2009/10/firstof-the-season.html. Danica’s Daily. (2009, October 17). Rolly Polly. Message posted to http://danicasdaily.com/rolly-polly/. Carrots ‘n’ Cake. (2009, October 12). Not a Happy Camper. Message posted to http://carrotsncake.com/2009/10/not-ahappy-camper.html. Eat, Drink, & Be Aware. About Me. Message posted to http://www.blogger.com/profile/0553626 0830375831583. Carrots ‘n’ Cake. About. Message posted to http://carrotsncake.com/about. Eat Like Me. (2007, October 1). Let’s Take a Step Back and Review. Message posted to http://www.self.com/fooddiet/blogs/eatli keme/welcome-to-eat-like-me/. Carrots ‘n’ Cake. My Journey. Message posted to http://carrotsncake.com/weightloss/my-journey. Eat, Live, Run. My Food Philosophy. Message posted to 263 http://eatliverun.com/my-foodphilosophy/. Healthy Tipping Point. Tips. Message posted to http://www.healthytippingpoint.com/tip s. Eating Bender. About. Message posted to http://eatingbender.com/about/. Jenn’s Menu and Lifetsyle Blog. About Jenn. Message posted to http://www.j3nn.net/about/. Eating Bird Food. About Me. Message posted to http://www.eatingbirdfood.com/about2/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2008, February 19). Tribute to Oatmeal. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/kaths-tributeto-oatmeal/. Hangry Pants. Meet Hangry Pants. Message posted to http://www.hangrypants.com/meethangry-pants/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, February 3). Tangerine Sunshine. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/?p=15272. Hangry Pants. Meet Heather. Message posted to http://www.hangrypants.com/2008/07/ meet-heather/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 6). WBO. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/wbo/. Healthy and Sane. About Me. Message posted to http://healthyandsane.com/about/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 6). A Good Day. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/a-good-day/. Healthy and Sane. (2009, October 6). Good Girl. Message posted to http://healthyandsane.com/2009/10/goo d-girl/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 6). Haircuts + Limericks. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/haircutslimericks/. Healthy and Sane. (2009, October 8). My First Blog Anniversary. Message posted to http://healthyandsane.com/2009/10/myfirst-blog-anniversary/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 7). Decisions, Decisions. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/decisionsdecisions/. Healthy and Sane. (2009, October 13). My Head is Getting to Me. Message posted to http://healthyandsane.com/2009/10/myhead-is-getting-to-me/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 7). Prepped, Packed, Cleaned. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/preppedpacked-cleaned/. Healthy Tipping Point. Caitlin. Message posted to http://www.healthytippingpoint.com/ab out. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 7). A Full Gas Tank. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/full-gas-tank/. 264 Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 13). Morning Gossip. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/morninggossip/. http://ksgoodeats.wordpress.com/2009/1 0/09/replay/. K’s Good Eats. (2009, October 13). Welcome Back. Message posted to http://ksgoodeats.wordpress.com/2009/1 0/13/welcome-back/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 13). Fun Run + Sun. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/fun-run-sun/. K’s Good Eats. About Me. Message posted to http://ksgoodeats.wordpress.com/aboutme/. Kath Eats Real Food. (2009, October 13). Sing Along. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/sing-along/. Kath Eats Real Food. Kath. Message posted to http://www.katheats.com/kath-2/. NYCollegEats. (2009, October 7). Greek Yogurt Gods. Message posted to http://collegaleats.blogspot.com/2009/10 /greek-yogurt-gods.html. Krista’s Kravings. (2009, October 6). Dinner Pancakes. Message posted to http://kristaskravings.blogspot.com/200 9/10/dinner-pancakes.html. NYCollegEats. (2009, October 9). Bio Exam. Message posted to http://collegaleats.blogspot.com/2009/10 /bio-exam.html. Krista’s Kravings. (2009, October 9). Wet Vacation Day. Message posted to http://kristaskravings.blogspot.com/200 9/10/wet-vacation-day.html. NYCollegEats. (2009, October 13). Study Strategies. Message posted to http://collegaleats.blogspot.com/2009/10 /study-strategies.html. Krista’s Kravings. (2009, October 13). Couch Potato. Message posted to http://kristaskravings.blogspot.com/200 9/10/couch-potato.html. NYCollegeEats. Ada. Message posted to http://www.blogger.com/profile/1597839 0392818633848. Krista’s Kravings. Krista – About Me. Message posted to http://www.blogger.com/profile/1459786 8827300760281. Run, Eat, Repeat. About. Message posted to http://runeatrepeat.com/?page_id=2. Running With a Recipe. (2009, October 7). She Recommended It. Message posted to http://runningwitharecipe.blogspot.com/ 2009/10/she-recommended-it.html. K’s Good Eats. (2009, October 8). All These Things that I’ve Done. Message posted to http://ksgoodeats.wordpress.com/2009/1 0/08/all-these-things-that-ive-done/. Running With a Recipe. (2009, October 7). Not a Day Goes By. Message posted to http://runningwitharecipe.blogspot.com/ 2009/10/not-day-goes-by.html. K’s Good Eats. (2009, October 9). Replay. Message posted to 265 Running With a Recipe. (2009, October 9). Versatile Veggie. Message posted to http://runningwitharecipe.blogspot.com/ 2009/10/versatile-veggie.html. to http://runningwitharecipe.blogspot.com/ 2009/10/warm-by-oven.html. Running With a Recipe. Why I Do This. Message posted to http://runningwitharecipe.blogspot.com/ Running With a Recipe. (2009, October 13). US Wins for Best Porridge. Message posted to http://runningwitharecipe.blogspot.com/ 2009/10/us-wins-for-best-porridge.html. SnackFace. About. Message posted to http://snackface.wordpress.com/about/. The Chic Life. About. Message posted to http://thechiclife.typepad.com/about.ht ml. Running With a Recipe. (2009, October 13). Warm by the Oven. Message posted Appendix 1) 20 Blogs Included in “About Me” Analysis: http://carrotsncake.com/ (Carrots ‘n’ Cake) http://www.j3nn.net/ (Jenn’s Menu & Lifestyle Blog) http://collegaleats.blogspot.com/ (NY Collegeats) http://www.katheats.com (Kath Eats Real Food) http://danicasdaily.com/ (Danica’s Daily) http://eatdrinkandbeaware.blogspot.com / (Eat, Drink, & Be Aware) http://kristaskravings.blogspot.com/ (Krista’s Kravings) http://ksgoodeats.wordpress.com/ (K’s Good Eats) http://eatingbender.com/ (Eating Bender) http://runeatrepeat.com/ (Run, Eat, Repeat) http://runningwitharecipe.blogspot.com/ (Running With a Recipe) http://eatingbirdfood.com/ (Eating Bird Food) http://eatliverun.com/ (Eat, Live, Run) http://graduatemeghann.com/ (The Inner Workings of a College Graduate) http://www.self.com/fooddiet/blogs/eatli keme (Eat Like Me) http://hangrypants.com/ (HangryPants) http://snackface.wordpress.com/ (SnackFace) http:healthyandsane.com/ (Healthy and Sane) http://thechiclife.typepad.com/ (The Chic Life) http://healthytippingpoint.com/ (Healthy Tipping Point) 266 2) 15 Blogs Omitted from Initial List for Analysis: http://www.melissanibbles.com/ (Melissa Nibbles) http://actorsdiet.blogspot.com/ (The Actors’ Diet) http://onalobsterplacemat.com/ (On a Lobster Placemat) http://applecrumbles.com/ (Apple Crumbles) http://pastriesandbacon.wordpress.com/ (Pastries & Bacon) http://blueberryhil.wordpress.com/ (Blueberry Hill) 3) 8 Blogs Included in Daily Post Analysis: http://burpandslurp.wordpress.com/ (Burp and Slurp) http://carrotsncake.com/ (Carrots ‘n’ Cake) http://caretoeat.net/ (Care To Eat) http://collegaleats.blogspot.com/ (NY Collegeats) http://foodmakesfunfuel.com/ (Food Makes Fun Fuel) http://danicasdaily.com/ (Danica’s Daily) http://happyherbivore.com/about/ (Happy Herbivore) http:healthyandsane.com/ (Healthy and Sane) http://healthyashley.blogspot.com/ (Healthy Ashley) http://heathereatsalmondbutter.com/ (Heather Eats Almond Butter) http://www.katheats.com (Kath Eats Real Food) http://kristaskravings.blogspot.com/ (Krista’s Kravings) http://www.honormyhealth.com/ (Honor My Health) http://ksgoodeats.wordpress.com/ (K’s Good Eats) http://lengslog.wordpress.com/ (A Fat Cat and a Vegetarian) http://runningwitharecipe.blogspot.com/ (Running With a Recipe) http://luckytastebuds.wordpress.com/ (Lucky Taste Buds) 267 268 269 270 271