Mobile Broadband Market Dynamics

Mobile Broadband
Market Dynamics
BV Raman
CDMA Development Group
October 3, 2007
Key Lessons Learned
Migration from 1G to 2G to 3G
It took 2G technologies the better part of a decade to find widespread
adoption.*
Over optimism and growing pains are often intrinsic to the process that
informs the introduction of any new technology.*
The migration to newer technologies takes longer, and is
never as simple as it may seem.
2
*Source: “Past as a Guidepost to the Future: Reflections on the Continued Growth of the Mobile Communications Industry”, IDC, September 2007
www.cdg.org
Key Lessons Learned
Evolutionary Change
Mobile network operators, like others engaged in network-based
enterprises, prefer a graceful evolutionary change to a disruptive
revolutionary change.*
Graceful evolutionary change is preferred
over disruptive revolutionary change.
2
*Source: “Past as a Guidepost to the Future: Reflections on the Continued Growth of the Mobile Communications Industry,” IDC, September 2007
www.cdg.org
Key Lessons Learned
Compatibility and Interoperability
The coordination endeavor requires an appropriate inclusive arena —
usually a standard-setting body — in which industry players can meet
to discuss and resolve their concerns and build consensus in a
productive and expeditious manner.*
The process of ensuring compatibility and interoperability
across multiple industries requires efficient standardsetting bodies, network maturity and business
predictability.
2
*Source: “Past as a Guidepost to the Future: Reflections on the Continued Growth of the Mobile Communications Industry”, IDC, September 2007
www.cdg.org
India’s Targets set by DOT
2005
2007
2010
Telecom Subs
Internet Subs
Broadband Subs
(In Millions)
(In Millions)
6
18
40
(In Millions)
3
9
20
250
500
While we are well on the way to achieve our Telecom Subscriber
Targets, we are way off the mark on Internet & Broadband
Subscribers.
2
www.cdg.org
India Internet & Broadband Subscribers
10
6.7
8.1
7.7
6.9
Millions 5
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.8
9.3
8.6
2.3
0
Dec'05
Mar'06
Jun'06
Broadband Subs
Targets Broadband
Internet
2005
3 Mln.
6 Mln.
Sep'06
Dec'06
Mar'07
Internet Subs
2007
9 Mln.
18 Mln.
2
www.cdg.org
Limitations to Internet & Broadband
Penetration in India
Limited Amount of Copper Deployed by Fixed Line Operators
Including the incumbents, BSNL & MTNL.
According to TRAI the Maximum number of Subs that can be
accomodated is 9 Million.
So What is the Solution?
The Solution is to DEPLOY High Speed networks on diverse
competing platforms.
Need a Cogent Technology Agnostic Spectrum Management
Policy
Grow the emerging Advance Wireless Systems.
2
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000:
Evolution of Services
Wireless Broadband Evolution
CDMA2000 is leading the evolution to next generation mobile broadband services
Network Evolution
All-IP Network For Fixed-Mobile
Convergence (VoIP & data)
Co-existence of Different Access
Networks for Various Needs
y Coverage, Mobility,
Capacity,QoS, Data Rates
Mobile Device Evolution
Convergence of Communication,
Computing & CE Platforms
Multi-mode Devices Connect
Service Evolution
User Behaviors Trend
from Wired to Wireless
Same Rich IP Apps and
to Various Access Networks
Services in all Environments
y Service Requirements,
Availability, Cost …
y Ubiquitous & Consistent
Experience Desired
2
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000 Service Evolution
Same Rich IP Apps and Services in all environments
User Trend: Shift from Wired to Wireless
y Ever increasing demand for more and higher quality
video
y Users sharing content within a traditional fixed
environment (wireless through the home)
y Place-shifting of content now accessible at all times
and places with wireless
Individuals becoming content creators
y Handsets now becoming media generation and
storage devices
y Wireless connection to social networks allows users
to express themselves anytime, anywhere
2
User Generated Content on
Social Networks
www.cdg.org
EV-DO Rev. A: Leading wireless broadband
The first All-IP, low-latency, broadband multimedia, multicasting and mobile VoIP
network to be commercially deployed, with speeds over 3 Mbps
Telcel (Venzuela)
Movilnet (Venzuela)
Arobase Telecom (Cote d’Ivoire)
Bermuda Digital Communications (BDC)
Mobilkom (Czech Rep)
EOCG (Caribbean)
Telesystems or Ukraine
Skytel (Mongolia)
MTS First Wireless (Nigeria)
Telefonica O2 (Czech Rep)
Dozens of Rev A networks will be deployed in 2007
2
Logo Not Shown: Broadband Everywhere (Philippines)
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000 All-IP Deployment Scenarios
A Packet-based network for unified voice, broadband data, and multimedia services
PSTN
• Centralized or Distributed network configuration
• Local Exchange is not required
• Cost-effective service even in very remote areas
• Efficient usage of bandwidth
• Can operate cost effectively over satellite links
Media
Gateway
Ring
Centralized
Centralized
Server
Server
Media
Gateway
PSTN
Local
PSTN
Media
Gateway
Media
Gateway
PSTN
Star
Distributed
Distributed
Server
Server
PSTN
Chain
Media
Gateway
2
Media
Gateway
PSTN
Although
Althoughbackhaul
backhaulof
ofremote
remoteRF
RFnetwork
networkelements
elementswill
willremain
remainaasignificant
significantcost,
cost,with
with
fewer
sites,
an
all-IP
CDMA2000
solution
can
significantly
reduce
the
overall
system
fewer sites, an all-IP CDMA2000 solution can significantly reduce the overall systemcost.
cost.
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000
Device Selection
CDMA2000: The Largest Selection of 3G Devices
Over 1700 CDMA2000 devices have been introduced to the market
Entry-level
Personal
Voice-centric Messaging
Handsets Mobile Phones
EV-DO
PC Cards
EV-DO
USB modems
Fixed Wireless
Phones
WorldModeTM
Global Roaming
Phones
PDAs
EV-DO
Fixed Wireless
Terminals
Television
Phones
Watch TV
on a large screen
from your
mobile phone
using TV Out cables
2
including
469 CDMA2000 1xEV-DO devices
from 92 Manufacturers
Interactive
Multimedia
CE Devices
EV-DO
PCexpress
Embedded Modules
for PC Notebooks
www.cdg.org
CDMA Fixed Wireless Devices
Across 450, 800 and 1900 MHz bands
Aiji Systems
AP-210
Aiji Systems
F20
AnyData
AXW-P1900PCO
Axesstel
P830
DowTel
WS-6110
LG
2 LST-3000
* CDMA450
Axesstel
AXW-T450/
800/1900
Axesstel
PX110/120/130
Hantel
HTP-1901
Huawei
CP800 1X
AnyData
AWL-200C
AnyData
AXW-P1900
• Aiji Systems
• AnyData
• Audiovox
• Axesstel
EVEV-DO
Rev. A
EVEV-DO
Rev. A
DowTel
WS-2100
LG
LST-250
Huawei
ETS2000
AnyData
AWR-E100C
DowTel
WS-8000
LG
LST-2500
Huawei
SYF 005
EVEV-DO
Rev. A
Sierra Wireless
Digi
MP 595 GPS
Connect Port WAN
Axesstel
Ruggedized In-Vehicle
LinkSys
MV410*/420/430/440
Modem
Wireless G 3G Broadband Gateway
Wi-Fi Router
EVEV-DO
Rev. A
• Samsung design
• Hantel
Telular
Phonecell XP4P
• Huawei
• Hyundai Curitel
Axesstel
L-450/800/1900
EVEV-DO
Rev. A
Telular
Phonecell SX4T
Telular
Phonecell SX5P
Kyocera
KR1 Router
• Westech
• DowTel
• Kison
• Kyocera
• LG
• Motorola
• NEC
• RWT
• Synertek
• Standard Telecom
• Sewon (Maxom)
Maxom)
Telular
Phonecell SX4e
Huawei
ETS2051
LG
LSP-3000
Huawei
ETS1000/1200/1500
Huawei
ETS2077
RWT
FCT-CDMA
Telular
SX6P-200C
Huawei
ETS2200/2288/2500
Westech
DTT-810/1910
Cypress Solutions
CTM-140
LG
LSP-340E
Westech
DTP-810/1910
• Telular
• ZTE
Note: Above devices are representative samples. This is not an all inclusive list
Novatel Wireless
Ovation MCD3000
ZTE
WP520B/560/920B
ZTE
WF520F
ZTE
WP960
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev A Devices
26 Rev A devices –as of May 2007 - offer increased data speeds in both directions
Novatel Wireless
Expedite E720
PCI Express Mini Card
Toshiba
W47T
Huawei
EC 360
2
Novatel
Wireless
Merlin S720
Kyocera
KR1 Mobile Router
* CDMA450
Pantech
PX-500
Sierra Wireless
AirCard 597E
Digi
Connect Port
WAN
Toshiba
DRAPE
Sierra Wireless
AirCard 595
UTStarcom
5800 (HTC Libra)
Axesstel
MV110*/140
USB Modem
Sierra Wireless
MC5725(V)
PCI Express
Mini Card
Sierra Wireless
AirCard 595U
USB Modem
Axesstel
Sierra Wireless
MV410*/420/430/440
MP 595 GPS
3G Broadband Gateway Ruggedized In-Vehicle Modem
Novatel Wireless
Ovation MCD3000
LinkSys
Wireless G
Wi-Fi Router
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000 WorldModeTM Devices
Global roaming enabled with CDMA2000/GSM/GPRS multi-mode/multi-band devices
Samsung
SCH-A790/W109/A795/IP-A790
Motorola
A840/A860
LGE
W800
CDMA2000 1X/EV-DO/GSM/GPRS
WorldMode Devices
Samsung
SCH-i830
2
(EV-DO)
LGE
KW-9200
(EV-DO)
Amoi
CMA8301
(EV-DO)
Amoi
V810
(EV-DO)
Samsung
SCH-i819
LGE
W810
Yulong Telecom
Coolpad 728
Samsung Samsung
Samsung Samsung
Samsung Samsung Samsung
SCH-W219 SCH-W379 SCH-W399 SCH-W531 SCH-W569 SCH-W579 SCH-V920
Yulong Telecom
Coolpad 728B
UTStarcom
T66
CECT
C828
Yulong Telecom Yulong Telecom
Coolpad 858T Coolpad C288
Daxian
C8000
Hisense
D806
ZTE
H500
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000:
Strong Evolution Path
CDMA: Time-to-Market Leadership in 3G and
beyond
CDMA
CDMA/TDM
OFDM
OFDM/OFDMA/MIMO/SDMA
MIMO
CDMA2000 Evolution Path
VoIP
CDMA2000
CDMA2000
EV-DO
EV-DO
1X
1xEV-DO
Rev A1
Rev B1
DL: 2.4 Mbps
UL: 153 kbps
(1.25 MHz)
DL: 153 kbps
UL: 153 kbps
(1.25 MHz)
DL: 3.1 Mbps
UL: 1.8 Mbps
(1.25 MHz)
DL: 6.2 – 73.5 Mbps2
UL: 3.6 - 27 Mbps2
(2.5 – 20 MHz)
UMB3
Requirement:
DL: 140 - 291 Mbps4
UL: 34 – 79 Mbps
(10 – 20 MHz)
WCDMA Evolution Path
VoIP
Rel-99
Rel-5
Rel-6
WCDMA
HSDPA
HSUPA
DL: 384 kbps
UL: 384 kbps
(5 MHz)
DL: 1.8 - 7.2 Mbps
UL: 384 kbps
(5 MHz)
DL: 1.8-14.4 Mbps
UL: 5.72 Mbps
(5 MHz)
Rel-7
Rel-8
HSPA+ HSPA+
Phase 15
Phase 25
Target:
DL: 14 - 42 Mbps
UL: 11 Mbps
(5 MHz)
VoIP
LTE6
Requirement:
DL: 150 Mbps
UL: 50 Mbps
(20 MHz)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: timeline depicts initial commercial availability of each technology. Those introduced beyond 2008 are under standardization and are subject to variability
1
EV-DO Rev A and Rev B incorporate OFDM for multicasting.
Data rates are based on 64 QAM and a 2x20 MHz FDD band allocation and are scalable with the number of carriers assigned. Up to 15 carriers, up to 4.9 Mbps per carrier.
3
Multiple modes supported: CDMA, TDM, OFDM, OFDMA, LS-OFDM. New antenna techniques used: 4x4 MIMO and SDMA. Leverages EV-DO protocol stack.
4
Data rates are based on 2x20 MHz FDD band allocation and 4x4 MIMO. Data rate depends on the level of mobility.
2 5 Upper range of DL peak data rates for Release 7 and Release 8 introduce enhancements is based on 64 QAM, 2x2 MIMO.
6
Initial requirements are based on OFDMA in the DL and SC-FDMA in the UL, FDD, 64 QAM, 2 TX MIMO in DL, and 16 QAM single TX stream in UL.
2
www.cdg.org
EV-DO Rev A: Enhanced Mobile Broadband
Higher spectral efficiency, faster data rates, greater symmetry, and lower latency
Higher broadband data rates
y 3.1 Mbps peak data rate on forward link
y 1.8 Mbps peak data rate on reverse link
Greater symmetry
y Designed for symmetric traffic
y Improves user experience for UL intensive applications (sending email, pictures, etc.)
Higher spectral efficiency
y Increased rate quantization on both forward and reverse link enables more efficient use of air link
resources
y 1.2 times Rel 0 forward link sector capacity
y 3.4 times Rel 0 reverse link sector capacity
Reduced latency
y Support for delay sensitive applications such as VoIP, push-to-talk, video telephony, instant multi-media
(IMM), video conferencing, and low-latency network gaming
Optimized Quality of Serivce (QoS)
y User-based (based on subscription), application-based, and flow-based prioritization
DO Platinum Multicast
y Economical delivery of rich content to the mass market.
y 1.5 Mbps capacity with > 98% coverage
Backward compatibility
y Continued support for existing 1X and Rel 0 devices
2
www.cdg.org
EV-DO Rev B: Multi-carrier Broadband
Higher performance with greater spectrum flexibility
Aggregates multiple EV-DO channels for higher performance
y Software upgrade to existing Rev A channel cards
y Allows deployment in “hot-zones” with high data demand
Higher broadband data rates
y Peak data rates are proportional to the number of carriers aggregated
- 2 RFs = 6.2 Mbps, 3 RFs = 9.3 Mbps
y Initial carrier bandwidth is 2.5 MHz (standard supports up 20 MHz)
Increased (wider) bandwidth
y To support more users per sector or lower cost per megabyte
y To encourage longer usage
Network flexibility
y Allocation of bandwidth for new devices depends on application and network availability
Higher capacity
y Improved spectral efficiency on both FL and RL due to multi-carrier transmissions
y Better user experience throughout the cell coverage area
Backward compatibility
2
y Co-existence of 1X, Rev A and B devices in the same network
y 1xEV-DO Rev A channel cards can be utilized
www.cdg.org
Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB)
A technological breakthrough in next generation broadband services
Combines the best aspects of CDMA, TDM, LS-OFDM, OFDM, and OFDMA into a
single air interface using sophisticated control and signaling mechanisms and
advanced antenna techniques:
y Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) and Space Division Multiple Access (SDMA)
Will deliver ultra-high mobile broadband performance*:
y Forward link: up to 291 Mbps
y Reverse link: up to 79 Mbps
y Average network latency: 16.8 msec
y Voice over IP (VoIP): up to 500 simultaneous users
Will enable the convergence of IP-based voice, broadband data, multimedia,
information technology, entertainment and consumer electronic services
Commercial availability is expected in early 2009
2
*Based on 2x20 MHz FDD band allocation and 4x4 MIMO. Latency is based on a 32-byte Return Trip Transmission (RTT).
VoIP capacity is dependent upon the feature set enabled and network load.
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000
Performance
Site Count Comparison By Technology
CDMA2000 requires the least number of cell sites for rural markets
133
Assumptions:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Coverage area = 1,000 sq. km.
Subscriber density = 31 Subs/sq. km
Available spectrum = 5 MHz
Average voice traffic per sub = 200 MoU/month
Average data traffic per sub = 5 Mb/month
Wireless penetration = 50%, Carrier market share = 25%
Voice usage = 100%, Voice BH = 10%
Data usage = 100%, Data BH = 12%
Simultaneous Calls/Sector/Carrier: EV-DO = 44, 1X = 35, GSM/EDGE = 6, WCDMA/HSDPA = 60, WiMAX = 25
Physical Layer FL data throughput (kbps): EV-DO = 1280, 1X = 350, GSM/EDGE = 86, WCDMA/HSDPA = 3600, WiMAX = 2300
75
66
15
22
EV-DO Rev. A
(VoIP)
@ 450 MHz
EV-DO Rev. A
(VoIP)
@ 800 MHz
2
Source: QUALCOMM, March 2007
27
CDMA 1X
@ 800 MHz
WCDMA/HSDPA
@2100 MHz
GSM/EDGE
@900 MHz
WiMAX
@2500 MHz
(Capacity Limited)
www.cdg.org
CDMA2000 Enables Lowers Tariffs
CDMA2000 1X and EV-DO enables the lowest cost per bit and Erlang
Combined Voice and Data Network Expense
(500 Minutes of Use)
USD
$25.00
Network Expense/User/Month
GSM/GPRS
$22.50
EDGE
WCDMA
$20.00
1X
1X / EV-DO Rel. 0
$17.50
The Lower
the better!
$15.00
$12.50
$10.00
$7.50
$5.00
$2.50
$0.00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Megabytes per User
Operators
Operatorsprefer
prefernetwork
networktechnologies
technologiesthat
thatare
areaffordable
affordableand
andevolutionary
evolutionary
Source: The Economics of Wireless Data, http://www.qualcomm.com/main/whitepapers/WirelessMobileData.pdf
2
Assumptions:
On demand Traffic: a) 15% of traffic demand occurs at the busy hour, b) 7,600 kbps / sq km at busy hour, c) 5MHz
Multicast Traffic: a) 2,000 subscribers / cell, b) 30 live streaming minutes / day at 128kbps data rate, c) 1.25MHz
www.cdg.org
Worldwide Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)
CDMA2000 will sustain the highest average revenue per user on a global basis
ARPU
(USD)
Data Usage drives higher CDMA ARPU
for Leading Wireless Technologies
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GSM/GPRS/EDGE
CDMA2000
2
Source: Strategy Analytics, September 2006
www.cdg.org
Korea: CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Outpaces WiBRO
When given a choice, Korean end-users chose 1xEV-DO over WiBRO
Q3 and Q4 2006 subscriber net addition totals:
y 1,057 WiBRO subscribers since WiBRO’s commercial
launch in 2006 (KT and SKT)
y 1.8 million EV-DO subscribers (KTF and SKT) Total
WiBRO roll-out costs: W620 billion
South Korean Wireless Broadband
Subscriber Growth (Q3 & Q4 2006)
2,000,000
- SKT spent ~W170 billion
- KT spent ~W450 billion
1,500,000
- Only available in select “zones” of the Seoul metro area
y Total EV-DO roll-out costs: W300 billion
- SKT spent ~W200 billion (26 cities)
- KTF spent ~W100 billion (6 cities - ~80% POPs coverage)
- EV-DO had close to nationwide coverage when launched
1,000,000
500,000
0
WiBRO
EV-DO
EV-DO cost less to roll-out over a larger area
2
Source: Wireless Intelligence (1xEV-DO subscribers), media sources (WiBro subscribers, WiBro & EV-DO roll-out expenditures)
www.cdg.org
Conclusion
CDMA2000 offers affordable telephony, Internet and multimedia access to
large coverage areas that have a low population density
y Rural Services: CDMA2000 addresses India’s national objectives by
increasing telephony, Internet penetration, enterprise productivity, and
improving vital services such as:
- Telemedicine, remote learning, public safety, asset management, emergency
and disaster relief, national security, telemetry, transportation and utility
services, agriculture, tourism, etc.
y Coverage: CDMA2000 enables the largest coverage area using the
lower 450 and 800 MHz frequency bands and extended base station
coverage solutions.
y Network Costs: The spectral efficiency of CDMA2000 and its All-IP
architecture reduces the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of a network,
improves performance and enables faster deployments.
2
y Entry-level Devices: A large selection of entry-level CDMA2000
handsets are currently available. Entry level CDMA devices now well
below US$30.
www.cdg.org
Conclusion (Cont.)
CDMA2000 has been widely deployed in emerging and rural markets
worldwide
y Universal service: CDMA2000 is bridging the digital divide by providing
affordable telephony and Internet access to some of the most remote
places on earth.
y Flexibility and Scalability: CDMA2000 has enabled operators to
address both sparsely populated rural areas and densely populated
urban areas, equally well.
y Regulatory Environment: India needs a Technology Agnostic
Spectrum Management Policy to enable continued economic
development.
2
www.cdg.org
Thank You