Q4-15-SS - Park City Utah Real Estate and Deer Valley Utah Real

Transcription

Park City Real Estate Stats: Q4 2015
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Good Morning Summit Sotheby’s
Today’s topics:
1. Demand: a look at pended and closed transactions
2. Supply: comparison of listings for the past two years
3. Absorption rates: overall and specific areas
4. Cash Sales
5. Pricing Trends: reviewing appreciation for the past year
Goal: create a compelling narrative for both buyers and
sellers. Making markets and bridging expectations in todays
environment is not an easy task.
Demand: Pending Sales
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
NAR announced (1/28/2015) the pended home sales index
rose slightly, 0.1%, in December and has declined or
remained stable four times in five months. This December
is 4.2% above last year.
Pended home sales peaked in May. Dr. Yun said the
decline in the second half of the year is explained by “home
prices rising too sharply in several markets, mixed signs of
an economy losing momentum and waning supply levels
have acted as headwinds in recent months.”
GPC PHSI also fell for the third straight month in November
plummeting to 98.36. Our 4th quarter pended sales fell
precipitously from last year’s 4th quarter. December saw
some improvement and this December’s index is 2% higher
than it was last year.
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
NAR and GPC Pending Home Sales Index
Thru 11/2015
140
Source: NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein
130
120
110
100
90
80
National PHSI
Park City PHSI
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Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Pended Sales: Greater Park City
200
180
160
Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein
While the month of August was the highest
monthly pended month since 2006, this
November was the lowest pended sales
month for November since 2010.
120
100
80
60
40
20
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# of transactions
140
As of 12/2015
Land
SFR
Condos
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Annual Comparison
(as of 12/2015)
2000
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
1800
Pended sales continue to rise; albeit, slowly:
up 3.4% from 2014 and
4.9% above 2013.
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
VL
SF
CO
5
201
4
201
3
201
2
201
201
1
0
201
9
200
8
200
7
200
6
0
200
# of Transactions
1600
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
4th Qtr Comparison
(as of 12/2015)
400
350
4th quarter surprise:
Q4 2015 down 16% from Q4 2014
Let’s go a little deeper here.
250
200
150
100
50
VL
SF
CO
201
5
Q4
201
4
Q4
201
3
Q4
Q4
201
2
201
1
Q4
201
0
Q4
200
9
Q4
200
8
Q4
200
7
Q4
200
6
0
Q4
# of Transactions
300
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
4th Qtr Comparison
(as of 12/2015)
400
350
Between Q4 2014 and Q4 2015:
Condo sales down 29%
Home sales down 23%
Vacant Land up 53%
One quarter does not a trend make...
250
200
150
100
50
VL
SF
CO
201
5
Q4
201
4
Q4
201
3
Q4
Q4
201
2
201
1
Q4
201
0
Q4
200
9
Q4
200
8
Q4
200
7
Q4
200
6
0
Q4
# of Transactions
300
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Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
4th Quarter Drop
Seasonality
and variance
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Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Diminished Demand
or
“The Vail Effect”
2013
2014
% change
Number of Pended Sales
Q1
Q2
Q3
YTD
411
455
470
1336
394
407
464
1265
-4%
-11%
-18%
-5%
Q4
307
379
23%
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Diminished Demand
or
“The Vail Effect”
2013
2014
% change
2014
2015
% change
Q1
Q2
Q3
YTD
411
455
470
1336
394
407
464
1265
-4%
-11%
-18%
-5%
Q1
Q2
Q3
YTD
Q4
394
407
464
1265
379
459
433
503
1395
318
16%
6%
8%
10%
-16%
Q4
307
379
23%
what if
307
318
4%
Demand: Exis1ng Sales
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
NAR announced (12/22/15) existing home sales rebounded
14.7% in December because of delays in closings due to
“know before you owe” legislation which delayed closings in
November. Annually, 2015 saw 5.26M units sold and this is
the best since 2006; this is a 6.5% increase over 2014.
Dr Yun forecast 2016 GDP at 1.5% resulting in homes sales
being flat but with prices rising 4% - 5% due to a housing
shortage in many markets.
GPC three month rolling average closed down 9% from last
December due to “the Vail Effect.” GPC showed a 5.6%
annual increase over 2014 and is also the highest number
of sold transactions since 2006. .
Demand: Existing Sales
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
NAR and GPC # of Transactions
7,500,000
As of 12/2015
Source NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein
350.0
300.0
6,500,000
250.0
6,000,000
200.0
5,500,000
150.0
5,000,000
100.0
4,500,000
50.0
4,000,000
0.0
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7,000,000
NAR SAAR Left Axis
PC 3 Mo Rolling Avg Right Axis
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5
# of Transactions
CO
SF
VL
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Closed Sales: Greater Park City
Number of Transactions
(as of 12/2015)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Annual Comparison
(as of 12/2015)
1800
1600
Closed sales show slow but
consistent increase:
2015 above 2014 by 5.6%
2015 above 2013 by 5.0%
2015 above 2012 by 23.6%
1200
16%
1000
33%
800
600
51%
400
200
Condo
Sf
VL
5
201
4
201
3
201
2
201
201
1
0
201
9
200
8
200
07"
0
"20
# of Transactions
1400
4th Quarter Comparison
(as of 12/2015)
500
450
Similar story as pended sales.
# of transaction down 9% over Q4 14.
- Vail Effect
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Condo
Sf
VL
5
Q4
1
4
Q4
1
3
Q4
1
2
Q4
1
11
Q4
0
Q4
1
9
Q4
0
8
Q4
0
7
Q4
0
6
0
Q4
0
# of Transactions
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Greater Park City Annual Volume
(as of 12/2015)
1,800,000,000
Volume for SF Homes in 2015
is a new record!
Total volume up 10.8% from last year.
1,600,000,000
10%
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
55%
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
35%
200,000,000
Condo
SF
VL
5
201
4
201
3
201
2
201
201
1
0
201
9
200
8
200
7
200
6
0
200
Voume Sold
1,400,000,000
Demand: Existing Sales
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
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Supply: Inventory
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
NAR: Total housing inventory at the end of December
decreased 1.79M existing homes for sale and is now 3.8%
lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 3.9 month
supply and is the lowest since January of 2005.
GPC total listings January 1st were 1,051 down 3.8% from
the month before and are up 32 listings or 3.1% from last
year, where it hit a historic low. The absorption rate is 8.1
months for all properties and 6.9 months for condos and
single family.
Supply: Inventory
Source NAR and Wells Fargo Securities
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Supply: Inventory
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Active Listings - Greater Park City
2500
(Inventory as of first of the month)
February 1, 2016
# of listings
2000
1051 Listings as of 1/1/16
compared to
1,019 as of 1/1/15.
Feb 2016 at 1076 listings
is the lowest Feb
since we began tracking.
1500
1000
500
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60
55
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Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Absorption Rate (ex lots): Greater Park City
December 2015
(Sales: 3 mo rolling avg.)
Source: PC MLS/ Compiled by Rick Klein
Absorption rate at 6.9 months
average since 2010: 11 months
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Supply: Q4 15 Inventory Change Per Area
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435 647 9055
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Cash Sales
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
NAR: cash sales were 24% of transactions in December
down from 26% a year ago. Individual investors purchased
15% of homes last month; 64% of investors paid cash in
December. First time buyers jumped up to 32% from 29%
last December.
Will we finally see an improved rate of financing in GPC?
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Cash Sales
Cash Sales History
60%
50%
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
Cash per property type 2015
50%
CO - 43%
SF - 37%
45%
VL - 82%
% of Cash Sales
40%
30%
48%
50%
48%
47%
48%
2014
2015
35%
26%
20%
10%
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Cash Sales
2012
2013
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Mortgage Rates
Rates quoted for a purchase transac>on (as of 2/8/16)
30 Year Fixed
7/1 ARM
3.875%
3.500%
3.970% APR
3.475% APR
High Balance
3.875%
3.500%
($600,300)
3.902% APR
3.470% APR
3.500%
2.750%
Conforming
Non-Conforming
3.513% APR
3.158% APR
Conforming 15 year fixed: 3.125%; APR 3.273%
30 Yr Fixed Mortgage Rates
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
10
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-96
Jan-95
Jan-94
Jan-93
Jan-92
Jan-91
18
Jan-90
Jan-89
Jan-88
Jan-87
20
Jan-86
Jan-85
Jan-84
Jan-83
Jan-82
Jan-81
Jan-80
Jan-79
Jan-78
Jan-77
Jan-76
Jan-75
Mortgage Rates
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Source: FHLMC, Rick Klein
16
14
12
Average rate since 1975: 8.4%
8
6
4
2
0
Home Prices
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Case Shiller announced (1/26/16) home prices increased
5.3% annually as of November 2015.
FHFA stated (1/26/16) home prices increased 5.9% for the 12
months ending November 2015 and were up 0.5% from October.
CoreLogic reported (2/2/16) home prices increased 6.3% year
over year in December. Home prices nationwide remain
7.6% below their peek set in April 2006. CL forecast a rise
in prices of 5.4% next year. Last year’s appreciation rate in
Utah was 7.2%.
NAR (10/23) stated median existing home price was $224,100;
this is a 7.6% increase from December 2014.
GPC 12 month median price for 2015 is $560K and the
mean price is $940K. This represents a 4.7% and 6.1%
increase respectively over 2014.
Home Prices
The Case-Schiller Index is about 4.8% below the
peak it set in July 2006 and 29.2% above the
bottom it touched in January 2012.
Home prices are back to early 2005 levels.
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Home Prices
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Home Prices
Federal Housing Finance Agency
Prices back to Q1 07.
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Home Prices
NAR and PC Median Price Trends
As of 12/2015
$260,000
$800,000
Source: NAR, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein
$240,000
$220,000
$600,000
NAR Median
$200,000
$500,000
$180,000
$400,000
$160,000
$300,000
$140,000
US Median left axis
PC Median right axis
15
1/
1/
14
1/
1/
13
1/
1/
12
1/
1/
11
1/
1/
10
1/
1/
09
1/
1/
08
1/
1/
07
1/
1/
06
1/
1/
05
1/
1/
04
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
03
$100,000
02
$100,000
01
$200,000
00
$120,000
PC 6 Mo Rolling Avg
$700,000
Homes Prices
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Greater Park City Median Prices
12 month rolling average
$800,000
(As of 12/2015)
Source PCMLS & Rick J. Klein
$700,000
Rolling 12 month median
increase of 5% over last year.
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
Using the 12 month rolling average;
GPC is 22% below April 2008;
since the lows at the end of 2011,
prices have increased 25%
$200,000
$100,000
Ja
nJu 01
Ja l-01
nJu 02
Ja l-02
nJu 03
Ja l-03
nJu 04
Ja l-04
nJu 05
Ja l-05
nJu 06
Ja l-06
nJu 07
Ja l-07
n
Ju -08
Ja l-08
nJu 09
Ja l-09
nJu 10
Ja l-10
nJu 11
Ja l-11
nJu 12
Ja l-12
nJu 13
Ja l-13
nJu 14
Ja l-14
nJu 15
l-1
5
Median Price
$600,000
12 Mo avg Med Price`
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Homes Prices By Areas
Condos
from peak to trough and back


 
































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














Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Homes Prices By Areas
Single Family
from peak to trough and back


 



























































Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Home Prices
GPC 12 Month Median Prices
As of 12/2015
800000
700000
2015:
Up 4.7% over 2014
Up 10% over 2013
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
Median Price
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
0
20
Median Price
600000
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Home Prices
GPC 12 Month Average Prices
As of 12/2015
1200000
2015:
Up 6.1% over 2014
Up 14.7% over 2013
1000000
600000
400000
200000
Average Price
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
0
20
Avg price
800000
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Home Prices by Segment
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Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
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Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
45/657!89:.7!%!"!3!
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Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
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Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Market Snapshot
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In Summary
Rick J. Klein
435 647 9055
Demand is increasing, is stable, and is sustainable. The
number of sales in 2015 are 5.3% higher than 2014.
Inventory remains low. There are about 30 more listings than
this time last year - which hit historic lows. Lack of inventory
will constrain sales in certain locations in the coming year.
Median prices for GPC increased a modest 4.7% over last year.
Yet, price appreciation varies considerably per area with many
market segments increasing by double digits.
GPC is highly segmented and extremely dynamic. Consumers
need informed and professional agents.
Rates are great and we have double the number of cash sales
than national stats. Please do your part.

Q4-15-SS - Park City Utah Real Estate and Deer Valley Utah Real

Transcription

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