Millennium Report Media Feb_13

Transcription

08 Feb. 2013
PORTUGAL
MEDIA
Media Update
(Prime) time to buy Impresa
YE13 Price Latest Upside
Rec.
Target (€) Price (€) Potential
Impresa
0.80
0.44
82%
Buy
Media Capital
2.45
0.87
182%
Cofina
0.58
0.57
1% Neutral
Risk Mkt Cap Avg Daily
Rating
(€mn) Vol 3m (k)
High
74
44.5
74
0.0
High
58
16.4
We updated our Media valuations (Impresa, Media Capital and Cofina)
following fine tune in Media Market estimates, postponed RTP private-owned
to 2017 and updated WACC. Overall, all Media players were revised upwards,
strongly benefiting from updated Portuguese Sovereign 10-year Government
Bonds (to 8% from 10%) while benefits from postponed RTP privatization
scenario to 2017 (from 2H13) were partially offset by downwards revision in
advertising market.
Prices as at 07-February -2013
Impresa
Turnover (€ mn)
EBITDA (€ mn)
Net Income (€ mn)
EPS (€)
P / E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
Media Capital
Turnover (€ mn)
EBITDA (€ mn)
Net Income (€ mn)
EPS (€)
P / E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
Cofina
Turnover (€ mn)
EBITDA (€ mn)
Net Income (€ mn)
EPS (€)
P / E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
2010
2011
2012E 2013E
271.1
33.7
10.1
0.06
23.4
14.5
249.8
22.3
-35.1
-0.21
-2.3
9.2
229.8
20.1
1.9
0.01
39.5
8.5
221.3
24.6
2.0
0.01
36.7
7.1
Changes in Media market estimates & new RTP privatization scenario led us
believe Impresa keep showing a Buy opportunity (price target €0.80 YE13,
Buy recommendation, High Risk) while Cofina (price target €0.58 YE13,
Neutral recommendation, High Risk) lowered speculative angle penalized by
reduced possibility to have a FTA TV channel.
249.0
39.5
12.4
0.15
27.3
11.5
224.4
28.6
1.2
0.01
119.7
8.1
182.1
37.3
10.2
0.12
7.2
4.8
175.3
29.9
10.4
0.12
7.1
5.2
We updated our Impresa`s valuation model based on latest figures, updated
advertising markets estimated growth and revised WACC calculation. Impresa
px target was revised upwards from €0.55 YE13 to €0.80 YE13, Buy
recommendation, High Risk. Fine-tune in estimates (€0.05 increase in px
target) reflected postponing RTP privatization to 2017 (which was partially
offset by downwards revisions in estimated revenues and an increasing tough
environment) while changes in WACC had a €0.20 positive impact on px
target (following the decline of the Portuguese Sovereign 10Y Government
Bonds, we updated the local sovereign yield to 8% from 10%.
136.3
23.1
5.02
0.05
14.1
9.6
126.7
19.8
4.8
0.05
16.2
8.4
115.2
15.7
6.0
0.06
8.9
9.2
109.0
14.4
5.2
0.05
10.3
9.6
We fine-tuned our Cofina`s valuations, based on latest figures, revised
media market estimates and updated WACC. Our Cofina`s price target
was revised upwards to €0.58 YE13 from €0.51 YE13 (Neutral
recommendation, High Risk). Fine-tune in estimates (€0.05 decrease in px
target) reflected an increasing tough scenario in press (both on Newspapers
and Magazines) while changes in WACC had a €0.12 positive effect.
We revised upwards Media Capital price target to €2.45 YE13 from €2.15
YE13 (keeping no recommendation, given low free-float: 0.26%). Updated
px target benefited from fine-tune in estimates (+€0.05 positive effect) while
changes in WACC had a €0.25 positive impact on price target.
Following increasing austerity measures from 2013 State Budget, we revised
downwards our Media market advertising growth estimates in Portugal (2012
from -13% to -18%; 2013 from -6.6% to -7.2%, penalized by downwards
revision in FTA TV from-13% % to -19% in 2012). Recall we estimate a 0.0%
CAGR 11-21 (from 0.5%). We expect Internet will keep positive trend while
Press and FTA TV will strongly decline. Since we estimate revenues
(advertising & circulation) will keep negative trend (no credible alternative
revenues), we believe Media Players will have to keep strong costs
management.
Source: Company data and Millennium investment banking
Prices as at 07-February-2013
Av. José Malhoa, 27 – 5º
1099-010 Lisboa
Telephone +351 21 721 8000
Facsimile + 351 21 721 8000
Portuguese Government decided to postpone “sine die” a possible sale via
privatization/concession of state-owned channel RTP1 while expects an
advertising market recovery. In our new base case scenario, we are assuming
that RTP will be privatized from 2016 (impact on 2017 numbers).
João Flores + 351 21 0037830
[email protected]
All prices are those of the end of the trading session unless otherwise indicated. For important Disclosure and Disclaimer go to the second last page.
Millennium investment banking Media
08 February
2013
Contents
3
Investment Case
5
RTP
8
Advertising market
12
Advertising market – Future trends
13
Impresa
23
Media Capital
33
Cofina
42
Diclosures
2
08 February
2013
Investment case
We updated our Media valuations (Impresa, Media Capital and Cofina) following fine tune in Media
Market estimates postponed RTP private-owned to 2017 and updated WACC. Overall, all Media players
were revised upwards, strongly benefiting from updated Portuguese Sovereign 10-year Government
Bonds (to 8% from 10%) while benefits from postponed RTP privatization scenario to 2017 (from 2H13)
were partially offset by downwards revision in advertising market.
Changes in Media market estimates & new RTP privatization scenario led us believe Impresa keep
showing a Buy opportunity while Cofina lowered speculative angle penalized by reduced possibility to
have a FTA TV channel.
Following increasing austerity measures from 2013 State Budget, we revised downwards our Media market
advertising growth estimates in Portugal (2012 from -13% to -18%; 2013 from -6.6% to -7.2%, penalized by
downwards revision in FTA TV from-13% % to -19% in 2012). Recall we estimate a 0.0% CAGR 11-21 (from
0.5%). We expect Internet will keep positive trend while Press and FTA TV will strongly decline. Since we
estimate revenues (advertising & circulation) will keep negative trend (no credible alternative revenues), we
believe Media Players will have to keep strong costs management.
Media companies:
i) We updated our Impresa`s valuation model based on latest figures, updated advertising markets estimated
growth and revised WACC calculation. Impresa price target was revised upwards from €0.55 YE13 to €0.80
YE13, Buy recommendation, High Risk. Fine-tune in estimates (€0.05 increase in price target) reflected
postponing RTP privatization to 2017 (which was partially offset by downwards revisions in estimated revenues
and an increasing tough environment both in advertising & circulation) while changes in WACC had a €0.20
positive impact on price target (following the decline of the Portuguese Sovereign 10-year Government Bonds, we
updated the local sovereign yield to 8% from 10%.
ii) We fine-tuned our Cofina`s valuations, based on latest figures, revised media market estimates and updated
WACC. Our Cofina`s price target was revised upwards to €0.58 YE13 from €0.51 YE13 (Neutral
recommendation, High Risk). Fine-tune in estimates (€0.05 decrease in price target) reflected an increasing
tough scenario in press (both on Newspapers and Magazines) while changes in WACC had a €0.12 positive
effect (following the decline of the Portuguese Sovereign 10-year Government Bonds, we updated the local
sovereign yield to 8% from 10%. Overall, Cofina`s numbers are being influenced by a recessive macroeconomic
context that is strongly felt in private consumption. Therefore, the advertising investment recorded significant
decreases, with the advertisers postponing and reducing their investment decisions.
iii) We revised upwards Media Capital price target to €2.45 YE13 from €2.15 YE13 (keeping no
recommendation, given low free-float: 0.26%). Updated price target benefited from fine-tune in estimates (+€0.05
positive effect) while changes in WACC had a €0.25 positive impact on price target (following the decline of the
Portuguese Sovereign 10-year Government Bonds, we updated the local sovereign yield to 8% from 10%.
3
08 February
2013
Triggers:
i) Keep costs cutting measures
We believe Media companies will have to keep strong costs control policies, given major downside risks on
revenues (worsening macro-economic scenario from austerity measures, consumer’s reaction / negative impact
to the government austerity measures). We expect Portuguese Media players will keep facing a very tough
environment: i) top line is under pressure (2 digits decline in advertising market ); ii) there are no major
alternatives to revenues from Portugal (very difficult to enter Brazilian market; low scale business in Portuguese
spoken countries, Angola, Mozambique); iii) alternative revenues from Internet are still low scale business and iv)
receiving licensing fees from Google (similar to French agreement) seems not probable at short/medium term.
i) SIC showed strong prime-time numbers
SIC/Impresa posted strong audience shares in prime-time in January, reaching 2nd place (1st FTA). Overall,
numbers are potentially positive to SIC, which kept recovering primetime (and all-day) audience shares while
state-owned channel RTP keep showing bad numbers. We highlight SIC kept benefiting from prime-time soap
and daily news strong audience shares while state-owned channel RTP keep showing bad numbers.
We highlight GfK is fine-tuning panel of households (to be ready by month-end). Recall GfK increased younger
generations weigh in Television Audience Measurement panel of households from March 2012 (audience shares
from FTA channels with an older profile RTP1 and TVI were penalized while SIC and Cable were benefited) thus
it will not be a surprise if updated panel of households slightly penalizes SIC audience shares while benefits
RTP1 and TVI.
WACC
We kept our WACC approach in order to better capture specific country risks and also to discriminate between
temporary shocks and more structural changes. We differentiate between WACC applied to the first half of the
explicit period (2013-15), WACC applied to second half of explicit period (2016-21) and WACC applied to
terminal value in order to discriminate between temporary shocks and more structural changes, such as the
increase in the Portuguese sovereign yield spread. This approach is explained below in more detail. The
outcome of this revision is that we are now applying a WACC to the first 3 years of the explicit period (20132015), a different WACC to the last years of the explicit period (2016-2021), and another WACC to the terminal
value (please see tables in pages 18, 28, 38. Under this approach, both the cost of equity and cost of debt are
calculated in a different way, as explained hereafter.
4
08 February
2013
RTP
Government postponed RTP privatization
Portuguese Government decided to postpone “sine die” a possible sale via privatization/concession of stateowned channel RTP1 while expects an advertising market recovery. We highlight FTA advertising market
slumped c30% since 2010. Meanwhile Government decided to start a restructuration (reaching €42mn) to reduce
RTP costs, since Government grants will be reduced this year by €40mn (and eliminated in 2014). According to
the press, restructuration will include reducing c600 employees (currently RTP Group has c2.200). From 2014,
RTP revenues will come mainly from Broadcasting Contribution Tax (€140mn p.a) and Advertising (€30mn-€40mn
p.a.).
In our new base case scenario, we are assuming that RTP will be privatized from 2016, following next general
election which will be held on 2015 (unless Government steps down earlier). RTP, SIC and RTP will have 12
minutes advertising per hour from 2016 (currently SIC and TVI have 12 min adv per hour while state-owned RTP
has 6 min adv per hour). Recall we were expecting a RTP privatization by year end. Recall the Minister Assistant
and of Parliamentary Affairs (Miguel Relvas) wanted to decide RTP privatization scenario till the end of 2012.
Regardless of the party in the Government, (PSD or PS) we believe Government will always want to increase
competition in Media (via increasing overall available advertising minutes per hour) in order to reduce influence of
Media groups. Recall the previous left-wing government from Socialist Party (PS) wanted a 5th channel while
current Government from Social Democratic Party (PSD) wants to privatize RTP.
Recall our Media valuations have embedded increasing overall available advertising min per hour by 20% in 2017,
thus its neutral if additional minutes will came from extra 6 min advertising per hour in RTP (from 6min/RTP + 12
min/SIC + 12 min/TVI to 12min/RTP + 12 min/SIC + 12 min/TVI) or via a new private channel with 12 min /
advertising per hour (assuming RTP1 becomes advertising-free).
RTP will stop receiving Government grants from 2014
RTP is funded by television advertising revenues, government grants, and the “broadcasting contribution tax”
(which is incorporated in electricity bills). According to the Minister Assistant and of Parliamentary Affairs (Miguel
Relvas), state-owned channel RTP will stop receiving Government grants in order to reduce Portugal`s Budget
deficit. From 2014 major revenues from RTP will come from Broadcasting contribution tax and advertising
revenues (6 min adverting per minute or 12 minutes advertising per minute). Overall, it`s Neutral/positive to
private media players, since it could reduce competitiveness of RTP programs (reflecting lower budget)
Furthermore, we believe there`s room to reduce “broadcasting contribution tax” in order to minimizing impact on
household income from expected rising electricity costs. We highlight RTP “broadcasting contribution tax”
(c€155mn in 2012) and advertising revenues (€32mn in 2012) compares with Impresa / SIC TV revenues in 2011
(€164mn, including cable news channel SIC Noticias) and Media Capital / TVI TV revenues (€151.4mn),
5
08 February
2013
Revenues breakdown
€mn
RTP Group
Government grants
Broadcasting Contribution Tax
Advertising
Cable
Others
Revenues per employe
SIC (Impresa`s TV unit)
Advertising
Others
Advertising Revenues per employe
TVI (Media Capital`s TV unit)
Advertising
Others
Advertising Revenues per employe
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
298
118
110
51
306
119
115
49
12
11
0.129
155
93
63
0.256
0.153
157
135
21
0.294
0.254
309
121
110
50
14
14
0.128
173
106
67
0.280
0.172
159
135
24
0.286
0.243
317
89
151
40
14
24
0.145
164
97
67
0.272
0.160
151
121
30
0.274
0.220
305
92
155
30
14
15
260
52
155
24
14
15
158
87
71
158
83
74
142
96
46
137
90
47
20
0.126
172
109
62
0.252
0.160
168
153
15
0.367
0.334
*6min advertising per hour; 12min adv / hour from 1H13
**2013 State Budget
Source: Company Data, Millennium bcp investimento
Costs breakdown
€mn
2008
2009
2010
2011
RTP Group
272
112
2376
101
283
113
2374
108
272
103
2412
114
266
108
2183
105
59
0.114
0.047
155
30
682
80
44
0.227
0.045
124
23
459
100
0.269
0.051
62
0.119
0.048
133
27
608
75
32
0.218
0.044
113
24
533
88
0.212
0.046
55
0.113
0.043
148
27
617
81
40
0.240
0.044
113
24
555
89
0.204
0.043
53
0.122
0.049
142
28
604
76
37
0.234
0.046
117
25
553
92
0.211
0.045
Personnel Costs
# employees
Programming Costs
Programming Costs RTP1
Programming Costs RTP2
Others
Costs per employe
Personnel Costs per employe
SIC (Impresa`s TV unit)
Personnel Costs
# employees
Programming Costs
Others
Costs per employe
TVI (Media Capital`s TV unit)
Personnel Costs
# employees
Programming Costs + Others
Costs per employe
2012E
2013E
98
70
21
60
54
5
136
26
135
26
73
36
71
38
109
23
110
24
85
86
6
08 February
2013
KPI
€mn
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
Revenues
Costs
# employees
EBITDA
Financials
Net Income
298
272
2376
26.4
-60.8
-46.9
306
283
2374
23.1
-26.6
-24.2
309
272
2412
36.6
-7.1
15.1
317
266
2183
50.9
7.0
18.9
305
260
Revenues
Costs
# employees
EBITDA
Financials
Net Income
273
254
1435
19
-16
-27
253
220
1314
33
-12
8
271
237
1305
34
-12
10
250
228
1262
22
-13
-35
230
210
221
197
20
-13
2
25
-13
2
Revenues
Costs
# employees
EBITDA
Financials
Net Income
287
249
1328
53
-9
20
268
230
1805
50
-9
18
249
222
1677
39
-5
12
224
208
1632
29
-6
1
182
156
175
150
37
-9
10
30
-8
10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
0.13
0.08
0.01
8.9%
10.3
4.2
0.13
0.08
0.01
7.6%
12.2
4.9
0.13
0.08
0.02
11.9%
7.4
2.8
0.15
0.10
0.02
16.1%
5.2
2.1
0.19
0.01
7.1%
13.1
1.8
0.19
0.03
13.1%
6.6
1.2
0.21
0.03
12.4%
7.0
1.1
0.20
0.02
8.9%
10.2
1.2
8.8%
10.4
1.2
11.1%
8.0
1.1
0.22
0.04
18.3%
4.7
0.5
0.15
0.03
18.7%
4.6
0.6
0.15
0.02
15.9%
5.6
0.5
0.14
0.02
12.8%
7.2
0.7
20.5%
4.2
0.7
17.1%
5.0
0.9
RTP Group
Impresa Group
Media Capital Group
Ratios
RTP Group
Revenues / # employees
Revenues (ex- Gov. Grants) / # employees
EBITDA / # employees
EBITDA margin
Operational costs / EBITDA
Personnel costs / EBITDA
Impresa Group
EBITDA margin
Personnel costs SIC / EBITDA
Media Capital Group
EBITDA margin
Personnel costs TVI / EBITDA
7
08 February
2013
Advertising Market
Trends
Following increasing austerity measures from 2013 State Budget, we revised downwards our Media Market
advertising growth estimates in Portugal (2012 from -13% to -18%; 2013 from -6.6% to -7.2%, penalized by
downwards revision in FTA TV from-13% % to -19% in 2012). Recall we estimate a 0.0% CAGR 11-21 (from
0.5%). We expect Internet will keep positive trend while Press and FTA TV will strongly decline.
We updated our advertising market status quo: increased available advertising minute per hour in state-owned
RTP1 to 12 min/hour from 2017 in order to offer the same conditions to all private-owned channels. Recall
current TV advertising market is 30 min/hour (6min RTP1 + 12min SIC + 12min TVI), thus we believe RTP1 will
change to 12min/hour (12+12+12), increasing downside risks in overall advertising prices (TV, press, radio).
Recall we estimated a RTP1 privatization by end-2013 in our previous scenario.
As we do not believe that adverting will increase in the same proportion as the number of minutes, we therefore
conclude that (all else equal) the increase in TV advertising offer should mean a decrease of the incumbents’
advertising revenues. That said, the impacts will depend of the target universe, contents and aggressiveness
(including prices). Nevertheless, expected lower prices in TV advertising could turn it more attractive and
competitive, inducing replacement from others (radio, press). Despite the efforts from actual players to diversify
revenues, and being not so dependent of TV advertising, increasing available advertising minutes per hour is
potentially negative to the current channels.
Audience convergence as central scenario
We kept rising cable audience shares in our base scenario, reflecting increasing numbers and effects from
changes to GfK from Marktest.
Our base case scenario assumes a convergence in audience shares between SIC and TVI in 2020 (both 20.7%
audience shares) which benefited from a more favourable media scenario via a less aggressive RTP competitor
(budget constraints). New FTA channel (5th channel) remains excluded from our media scenario (not a realistic
scenario) while Cable audience shares kept positive trend, reflecting a favourable environment. In this process,
we saw a retreat in viewing for all the “historical” generalist analogue channels.
The long-term decline in the market share of generalist analogue channels continued in the major European
countries as they lose space progressively to specialist channels broadcast through multi-channel TV platforms.
We highlight expected increasing audience share numbers in alternative platforms, reflecting new cable channels
(Bola TV, SIC K, TVI 24, Benfica TV, temporary channels …), growing competition from operators offering tripleplay (TV Cabo / Zon Multimédia and Meo / Portugal Telecom) and attractive new technologies (HD, 3D,…). FTA
channels power-ratios should increase, since growing cable audience shares will be partly (not totally) favourable
to cable advertising shares. Advertisers in cable channels usually target specific groups (young generations,
sports, autos…) while FTA channels reach a wider audience.
8
Portugal - Power ratio
estimated evolution
08 February
2013
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
FTA
TVI
SIC
RTP1
Cable/Other
0.0
9
08 February
Audience shares
2005
2006
2007
2008
Audience Share
100% 100% 100% 100%
TVI
30.0% 30.0% 29.0% 30.5%
SIC
27.2% 26.1% 25.1% 24.9%
RTP 1
23.6% 24.5% 25.2% 23.8%
RTP 2
5.0% 5.4% 5.2% 5.6%
New FTA Channel
Other (Cable,...)
14.2% 14.0% 15.4% 15.2%
Audience shares
- previous
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
100% 100% 100% 100%
28.7% 27.4% 25.7% 24.4%
23.4% 23.4% 22.7% 21.9%
24.0% 24.2% 21.6% 15.0%
5.8% 5.3% 4.5% 3.4%
18.2% 19.7% 25.5% 35.3%
2008
2009
2010
Audience Share
100% 100% 100% 100%
TVI
30.0% 30.0% 29.0% 30.5%
SIC
27.2% 26.1% 25.1% 24.9%
RTP 1
23.6% 24.5% 25.2% 23.8%
RTP 2
5.0% 5.4% 5.2% 5.6%
New FTA Channel
Other (Cable,...)
14.2% 14.0% 15.4% 15.2%
100%
28.7%
23.4%
24.0%
5.8%
100%
27.4%
23.4%
24.2%
5.3%
100% 100% 100% 100%
25.2% 24.6% 24.0% 23.4%
23.0% 22.7% 22.4% 22.1%
13.0% 13.1% 13.2% 13.3%
2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4%
0.0%
36.1% 37.0% 37.9% 38.8%
100%
22.5%
21.2%
14.8%
2.3%
0.0%
38.8%
100%
21.9%
21.3%
15.1%
2.2%
0.0%
39.5%
100%
21.3%
21.0%
15.4%
2.1%
0.0%
40.2%
100%
20.7%
20.7%
15.7%
2.0%
0.0%
40.9%
100%
20.7%
20.7%
16.0%
2.0%
0.0%
40.6%
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
100%
25.7%
22.7%
21.6%
4.5%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
24.3% 24.2% 23.7% 23.2% 22.7% 22.2% 21.7%
21.5% 21.4% 21.3% 21.2% 21.1% 21.2% 20.9%
14.8% 14.4% 14.3% 14.2% 14.1% 14.0% 13.9%
3.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18.2% 19.7% 25.5% 36.0% 37.3% 38.1% 38.9% 39.7% 40.5% 41.3%
100%
21.2%
20.8%
13.8%
2.1%
0.0%
42.1%
100%
20.7%
20.7%
13.7%
2.0%
0.0%
42.9%
100%
20.7%
20.7%
13.6%
2.0%
0.0%
43.0%
2013
11-15E 15-21E
Chg
Chg
-1.7% -3.3%
-0.3% -1.7%
-8.4% 2.8%
-2.0% -0.5%
na
na
12.4% 2.7%
11-15E 15-21E
Chg
Chg
-2.5%
-1.5%
-7.4%
-2.0%
na
13.4%
-2.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.5%
na
4.1%
10
FTA advertising
market
FTA
TVI
SIC
RTP
New FTA Channel
YoY
TVI
SIC
RTP
New FTA Channel
Share
TVI
SIC
RTP
New FTA Channel
08 February
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
302.4
136.3
118.3
47.8
308.2
144.3
115.8
48.1
316.6
146.6
115.8
54.2
313.5
153.1
109.2
51.2
276.5
135.2
92.7
48.6
283.8
134.9
99.0
49.9
250.0
121.4
89.0
39.6
-0.6% 1.9% 2.7% -1.0% -11.8%
6.5% 5.9% 1.6% 4.4% -11.7%
-6.3% -2.1% 0.0% -5.7% -15.1%
-4.4% 0.6% 12.7% -5.5% -5.1%
2.6%
-0.2%
6.7%
2.7%
-11.9%
-10.0%
-10.1%
-20.6%
45.1% 46.8% 46.3% 48.8%
39.1% 37.6% 36.6% 34.8%
15.8% 15.6% 17.1% 16.3%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
202.5
96.0
78.3
28.2
188.3
90.0
74.0
24.3
195.9
93.4
77.4
25.1
199.8
94.7
78.7
26.4
205.8
96.7
81.3
27.8
-19.0% -7.0%
-20.9% -6.3%
-12.0% -5.5%
-28.7% -13.7%
4.0%
3.8%
4.6%
3.0%
2.0%
1.4%
1.7%
5.2%
3.0%
2.1%
3.3%
5.3%
208.9 214.1 216.2
90.4
89.9
86.5
79.2
79.2
80.0
39.3
45.0
49.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5% 2.5% 1.0%
-6.5% -0.6% -3.8%
-2.6% 0.1% 1.0%
41.3% 14.5% 10.6%
218.4 221.7
84.1
80.7
79.7
80.5
54.6
60.5
0.0
0.0
1.0% 1.5%
-2.8% -4.0%
-0.4% 0.9%
9.8% 10.8%
na
2013
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
-5.5% 1.7%
-6.0% -2.6%
-3.0% 0.4%
-9.7% 14.8%
48.9% 47.5% 48.6% 47.4% 47.8% 47.7% 47.4% 47.0% 43.3% 42.0% 40.0% 38.5% 36.4%
33.5% 34.9% 35.6% 38.7% 39.3% 39.5% 39.4% 39.5% 37.9% 37.0% 37.0% 36.5% 36.3%
17.6% 17.6% 15.8% 13.9% 12.9% 12.8% 13.2% 13.5% 18.8% 21.0% 23.0% 25.0% 27.3%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FTA advertising
market
- previous
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
FTA
302.4 308.2 316.6
TVI
136.3 144.3 146.6
SIC
118.3 115.8 115.8
RTP
47.8
48.1
54.2
New FTA Channel
YoY
-0.6% 1.9% 2.7%
TVI
6.5% 5.9% 1.6%
SIC
-6.3% -2.1% 0.0%
RTP
-4.4% 0.6% 12.7%
New FTA Channel
Share
TVI
45.1% 46.8% 46.3%
SIC
39.1% 37.6% 36.6%
RTP
15.8% 15.6% 17.1%
New FTA Channel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
313.5
153.1
109.2
51.2
276.5 283.8 250.0 217.5
135.2 134.9 121.4 104.0
92.7 99.0
89.0
81.5
48.6 49.9
39.6
32.0
202.3 208.4 212.5
93.1
93.8 93.5
74.0
74.8 78.6
35.2
39.8 40.4
-1.0% -11.8% 2.6% -11.9% -13.0% -7.0% 3.0% 2.0%
4.4% -11.7% -0.2% -10.0% -14.4% -10.5% 0.8% -0.3%
-5.7% -15.1% 6.7% -10.1% -8.4% -9.2% 1.0% 5.1%
-5.5% -5.1% 2.7% -20.6% -19.1% 9.9% 13.1% 1.5%
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
216.8 220.0 225.5 227.8 230.1 233.5 -4.0% 1.6%
93.2
92.4
92.5
91.1 89.7
88.7 -6.3% -0.9%
80.2
81.4
83.4
85.4 87.4
88.7 -3.0% 2.0%
43.4
46.2
49.6
51.3 52.9
56.0 0.5% 5.6%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0% 1.5% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5%
-0.3% -0.9% 0.1% -1.5% -1.5% -1.1%
2.0% 1.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 1.5%
7.4% 6.6% 7.4% 3.3% 3.2% 5.9%
na
48.8% 48.9% 47.5% 48.6% 47.8% 46.0% 45.0% 44.0% 43.0% 42.0% 41.0% 40.0% 39.0% 38.0%
34.8% 33.5% 34.9% 35.6% 37.5% 36.6% 35.9% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.5% 38.0% 38.0%
16.3% 17.6% 17.6% 15.8% 14.7% 17.4% 19.1% 19.0% 20.0% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 23.0% 24.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11
08 February
2013
Advertising market – future trends
Net Advertising market
– growth rates
%
Total
Free-to-air TV
Press
Radio
Outdoors
Cinema
Internet
Cable & Others
Previous
Free-to-air TV
Press
Radio
Outdoors
Cinema
Internet
Cable & Others
Change
Free-to-air TV
Press
Radio
Outdoors
Cinema
Internet
Cable & Others
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
4.0%
2.7%
3.0%
-8.8%
4.9%
0.6%
87.0%
14.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-8.5%
-8.6%
0.5%
0.5%
51.7%
10.6%
-13.7%
-11.8%
-24.7%
-8.0%
-14.7%
-28.1%
15.5%
-14.4%
1.2%
2.6%
-9.3%
0.2%
-5.0%
-3.0%
24.3%
18.9%
-10.0%
-11.9%
-19.7%
1.0%
-9.0%
-13.0%
10.0%
-3.8%
-17.5%
-19.0%
-25.0%
-8.0%
-30.0%
-30.0%
4.5%
0.0%
-13.1%
-13.0%
-25.0%
-1.5%
-25.0%
-25.0%
5.0%
3.5%
-4.4pp
-6.0pp
0.0pp
-6.5pp
-5.0pp
-5.0pp
-0.5pp
-3.5pp
-7.2%
-7.0%
-18.0%
-5.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
6.0%
2.0%
-6.6%
-7.0%
-18.0%
-1.0%
-15.0%
-15.0%
7.0%
5.0%
-0.6pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
-4.0pp
0.0pp
-5.0pp
-1.0pp
-3.0pp
3.3%
4.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.0%
5.0%
2.8%
3.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.0%
5.0%
0.5pp
1.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
3.7%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
3.7%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
4.3%
3.0%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
3.8%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
0.5pp
1.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
3.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
3.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
4.2%
2.5%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
4.2%
2.5%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
3.4%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
8.0%
3.4%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
10.0%
8.0%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
2.4%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
5.0%
5.0%
2.4%
1.0%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
5.0%
5.0%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
2.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
5.0%
5.0%
2.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
0.0%
5.0%
5.0%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
CAGR
11-15E
-4.8%
-5.5%
-11.1%
-2.7%
-11.5%
-13.5%
6.9%
4.2%
-3.5%
-4.0%
-11.1%
0.0%
-10.0%
-10.6%
7.2%
5.8%
-1.3pp
-1.5pp
0.0pp
-2.7pp
-1.5pp
-2.8pp
-0.4pp
-1.7pp
CAGR
11-21E
0.0%
-1.2%
-3.7%
-0.2%
-3.1%
-5.6%
7.7%
6.4%
0.5%
-0.7%
-3.7%
0.9%
-2.4%
-4.4%
7.9%
7.1%
-0.5pp
-0.5pp
0.0pp
-1.1pp
-0.7pp
-1.2pp
-0.2pp
-0.7pp
Source: Company data, media agencies and Millennium investment banking
Total advertising market –
(€mn)
750
600
450
300
150
0
2004
2005
2006
Free-to-air TV
2007
2008
Press
2009
2010
Radio
2011
2012
2013
Outdoors
2014
2015
Cinema
2016
2017
Internet
2018
2019
2020
Cable & Others
Share of total advertising
market –
(%)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2004
2005
2006
Free-to-air TV
2007
2008
Press
2009
2010
Radio
2011
2012
Outdoors
2013
2014
Cinema
2015
2016
Internet
2017
2018
2019
2020
Cable & Others
12
08 February
2013
Impresa
We updated our Impresa`s valuation model based on latest figures, updated advertising markets estimated
growth and revised WACC calculation. Impresa price target was revised upwards from €0.55 YE13 to €0.80
YE13, Buy recommendation, High Risk.
Fine-tune in estimates (€0.05 increase in price target) reflected postponing RTP privatization to 2017 (which was
partially offset by downwards revisions in estimated revenues and an increasing tough environment both in
advertising & circulation) while changes in WACC had a €0.20 positive impact on price target (following the
decline of the Portuguese Sovereign 10-year Government Bonds, we updated the local sovereign yield to 8%
from 10%.
Costs cutting is crucial…
All in all, Impresa will face a tough environment (both in advertising and circulation) thus we believe company will
have to keep strong costs control to recover operational numbers. We believe advertising revenues in press will
not return to the levels pre-Leman (recovery in advertising will be done via TV, cable and net), thus its will
necessary to keep a strong costs control policy. We highlight Impresa showed in the last quarters an
uncharacteristic cost cutting profile which must be company`s usual profile
According to the news, Impresa reduced its Press portfolio in October. Company decided to close three women`s
magazines (“Casa Claudia; Casa Claudia Ideias; Arquitectura & Construção”) and two auto magazines
(Autosport; Volante). Furthermore, two sites were closed (“Relvado; My Games”). The cost cutting will reach
central departments (financial/accounting, marketing,…).
Based on Impresa`s latest reestructuring charges (2010) and newsflow, we expect numbers could reach €3.0Bn
to €3.5Bn in 4Q12 while it will reduce costs by €4.5mn annually (Publishing unit the most benefited) above €2mn.
Advertising revenues both in TV and press are estimated to keep negative trend (page19), thus additional cost
cutting measures are necessary not to penalize operational numbers. We expect increasing audience shares
from cable channels will benefit Impresa, since SIC Notícias leads audience shares in cable news channels. On
costs side, we estimate company will keep strong costs control policy in order to recover operational numbers,
which will lead to higher margins in a depressed top line environment. We expect operational costs will decline
c8% in 2012 (reached -4.2% in 2011) reflecting a more efficient cost cutting policy and a company more focused
on costs side than in the past.
Publishing business unit is also showing negative trends, penalized by declining advertising and circulation
revenues. Furthermore, Digital operational numbers are showing some difficulties to keep in positive territory,
penalized by a tough environment (declining revenues / higher costs).
Impresa 4Q12 earnings will be disclosed on March 25th. We expect Impresa will keep facing a very tough
environment, penalized by declining advertising revenues, thus operational numbers are expected to decline.
13
ImpresaBreakdown of
changes in price target
08 February
2013
Breakdown of changes in price target
0.90
0.75
+ € 0.20
€ 0.55
+ € 0.05
Previous valuation
(YE13)
Change in estimates
€ 0.80
0.60
0.45
0.30
0.15
0.00
Change in WACC
New YE13 price target
Source: Millennium investment banking
Dividends
We do not estimate Impresa will pay dividends at medium term. We expect company will pay dividends from
2015, reflecting a postponed recovery scenario.
€ million
Dividends paid
Payout Ratio
Dividend per Share (€)
2010
0.0
0.0%
0.00
2011
0.0
0.0%
0.00
2012E
0.0
0.0%
0.00
2013E
0.0
0.0%
0.00
2014E
0.0
0.0%
0.00
2015E
0.0
50.0%
0.03
2021E
-16.3
80.0%
0.11
14
ImpresaEstimates revision –
P&L
€ million
Revenues
Television
Publishing
Others & Inter-segments
Cash Costs
Television
Publishing
EBITDA
Television
Publishing
Margin
Television
Publishing
D&A
Impairment
EBIT
Financials
EBT
Disc. Operations
Income taxes
EBM
Minorities
Net Income
2011
249.8
164.1
81.6
4.1
-227.5
-141.5
-78.2
-7.8
22.3
22.6
3.4
-3.7
8.9%
13.8%
4.1%
-91.8%
-8.2
-33.3
-19.2
-13.4
-32.6
0.0
-2.4
-35.0
0.0
-35.1
2012E
229.8
158.5
69.3
2.0
-209.6
-136.1
-70.4
-3.1
20.1
22.3
-1.2
-1.0
8.8%
14.1%
-1.7%
-49.5%
-7.2
-0.5
12.4
-13.4
-0.9
0.0
2.8
1.9
0.0
1.9
New Estimates
2013E 2015E
221.3 235.2
157.7 169.1
61.5 63.4
2.1
2.7
-196.7 -202.6
-134.6 -141.2
-60.0 -59.0
-2.1
-2.4
24.6 32.6
23.1 27.9
1.5
4.4
0.0
0.3
11.1% 13.9%
14.6% 16.5%
2.4% 7.0%
2.0% 10.0%
-7.2
-7.2
0.0
0.0
17.4 25.4
-13.3 -12.8
4.1 12.5
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-3.3
2.0
9.2
0.0
0.0
2.0
9.2
08 February
2021E 2012E
269.3
235.5
194.3
161.1
71.4
71.8
3.6
2.6
-219.4 -212.7
-153.5 -136.7
-62.8
-72.1
-3.1
-3.8
49.9
22.8
40.8
24.4
8.6
-0.3
0.5
-1.2
18.5%
9.7%
21.0% 15.1%
12.0% -0.4%
15.0% -48.9%
-7.0
-7.2
0.0
-0.5
43.0
15.0
-9.5
-13.4
33.4
1.6
0.0
0.0
-7.9
-0.5
25.6
1.1
0.0
-0.2
25.5
1.0
Old Estimates
2013E 2015E
225.3 239.3
156.5 167.7
66.2 68.2
2.7
3.4
-203.4 -208.2
-135.4 -141.7
-65.4 -63.5
-2.6
-3.1
21.9 31.1
21.0 26.0
0.8
4.8
0.1
0.3
9.7% 13.0%
13.5% 15.5%
1.2% 7.0%
2.0% 10.0%
-6.9
-7.0
0.0
0.0
15.0 24.1
-13.5 -13.4
1.4 10.7
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-2.8
1.1
7.9
-0.2
-0.2
0.9
7.7
2021E
282.3
200.9
76.9
4.5
-232.2
-160.7
-67.6
-3.9
50.1
40.2
9.2
0.7
17.7%
20.0%
12.0%
15.0%
-6.9
0.0
43.2
-9.5
33.7
0.0
-7.9
25.7
-0.2
25.5
2012E
-2.4%
-1.6%
-3.6%
-20.1%
-1.4%
-0.5%
-2.3%
-19.7%
-11.7%
-8.3%
313.5%
-19.0%
-0.9pp
-1.0pp
-1.3pp
-0.6pp
-0.8%
nm
-17.4%
-0.5%
-158.7%
nm
-707.0%
65.3%
-90.3%
90.8%
Change
2013E 2015E
-1.8%
-1.7%
0.8%
0.8%
-7.1%
-7.1%
-20.1% -20.1%
-3.3%
-2.7%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-8.3%
-7.1%
-20.1% -20.1%
12.4%
4.8%
9.5%
7.3%
93.9%
-7.1%
-20.1% -20.1%
1.4pp
0.9pp
1.2pp
1.0pp
1.3pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
4.7%
3.6%
nm
nm
16.0%
5.2%
-1.7%
-4.4%
182.4%
17.3%
nm
nm
423.0%
17.3%
93.4%
17.3%
-90.3% -90.3%
128.0%
19.8%
2013
2021E
-4.6%
-3.3%
-7.1%
-20.1%
-5.5%
-4.5%
-7.1%
-20.1%
-0.3%
1.5%
-7.1%
-20.1%
0.8pp
1.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
1.1%
nm
-0.6%
0.0%
-0.7%
nm
-0.8%
-0.7%
-90.3%
0.1%
ImpresaKPI
%
Consolidated figures
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Capex as % of revenues
EBITDA-Capex as % of revenues
TV
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Publishing
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Others & Inter-Segments
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
2009
2010
-7.3
13.1
2.0
11.1
7.1
12.4
2.2
10.2
-7.9
8.9
3.1
5.8
-8.0
8.8
1.1
7.7
-3.7
11.1
1.1
10.0
3.4
11.8
2.1
9.6
2.8
13.9
2.2
11.7
3.5
15.2
2.2
13.1
1.3
15.8
2.2
13.7
2.3
17.2
2.2
15.0
2.5
17.5
2.2
15.3
1.9
18.3
2.2
16.1
2.3
18.5
1.8
16.7
-1.5%
0.1pp
-0.1pp
0.2pp
2.3%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.1pp
-9.4
14.6
2.3
12.3
11.3
14.5
3.0
11.4
-5.1
13.8
4.0
9.8
-3.5
14.1
1.1
13.0
-0.5
14.6
1.1
13.5
4.1
15.5
2.5
13.0
3.0
16.5
2.5
14.0
4.0
18.0
2.5
15.5
1.0
18.5
2.5
16.0
2.3
20.0
2.5
17.5
2.6
20.0
2.5
17.5
1.8
21.0
2.5
18.5
2.4
21.0
2.0
19.0
0.7%
0.0pp
-0.1pp
0.1pp
2.3%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.1pp
-9.8
16.7
0.4
16.3
1.7
10.9
0.4
10.4
-12.7
4.1
0.9
3.2
-15.1
-1.7
0.6
-2.3
-11.2
2.4
0.6
1.8
1.1
2.0
0.6
1.4
2.0
7.0
0.6
6.4
2.0
8.0
0.6
7.4
2.0
9.0
0.6
8.4
2.0
10.0
0.6
9.4
2.0
11.0
0.6
10.4
2.0
11.5
0.6
10.9
2.0
12.0
0.6
11.4
-1.6%
0.1pp
-0.1pp
0.2pp
2.0%
0.1pp
0.0pp
0.1pp
-49.8
-49.5
17.0
-66.5
5.0
2.0
17.0
-15.0
15.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
10.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
10.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
7.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
5.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
4.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
2.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
2.0 -13.6% 7.4%
15.0
nm 0.1pp
17.0
nm 0.0pp
-2.0
nm -0.2pp
15
ImpresaKPI (before)
%
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
TV
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Publishing
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Others & Inter-Segments
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
08 February
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
2013
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
2009
2010
-7.3
13.1
2.0
11.1
7.1
12.4
2.2
10.2
-7.9
8.9
3.1
5.8
-5.7
9.7
2.1
7.6
-4.3
9.7
2.1
7.6
2.2
10.8
2.5
8.3
3.9
13.0
2.5
10.5
3.1
14.4
2.2
12.1
2.7
15.4
2.2
13.1
3.0
17.1
2.2
14.8
2.9
17.4
2.2
15.1
2.7
17.5
2.2
15.3
2.4
17.7
1.9
15.9
-9.4
14.6
2.3
12.3
11.3
14.5
3.0
11.4
-5.1
13.8
4.0
9.8
-1.9
15.1
2.5
12.6
-2.9
13.5
2.5
11.0
2.4
14.5
3.0
11.5
4.6
15.5
3.0
12.5
3.4
17.0
2.5
14.5
2.9
18.0
2.5
15.5
3.4
20.0
2.5
17.5
3.2
20.0
2.5
17.5
3.0
20.0
2.5
17.5
2.6 0.5% 3.1%
20.0 0.0pp 0.0pp
2.0 -0.1pp -0.1pp
18.0 0.1pp 0.1pp
-9.8
16.7
0.4
16.3
1.7
10.9
0.4
10.4
-12.7
4.1
0.9
3.2
-12.0
-0.4
0.7
-1.1
-7.9
1.2
0.7
0.5
1.1
2.0
0.7
1.3
2.0
7.0
0.7
6.3
2.0
8.0
0.7
7.3
2.0
9.0
0.7
8.3
2.0
10.0
0.7
9.3
2.0
11.0
0.7
10.3
2.0
11.5
0.7
10.8
2.0 -1.6%
12.0 0.1pp
0.7 -0.1pp
11.3 0.2pp
-37.1
-48.9
17.0
-65.9
5.0
2.0
17.0
-15.0
15.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
10.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
10.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
7.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
5.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
4.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
2.0
10.0
17.0
-7.0
2.0
15.0
17.0
-2.0
-1.1%
0.1pp
0.0pp
0.2pp
2.8%
0.1pp
0.0pp
0.1pp
2.0%
0.1pp
0.0pp
0.1pp
-6.0% 6.7%
nm 0.1pp
nm 0.0pp
nm -0.2pp
Impresa- Main
changes in TV operating
performance
Old Estimates
Changes
2012E 2013E 2015E 2021E 2012E 2013E 2015E 2021E
2012E
2013E
2015E
2021E
Revenues
164.1
158.5 157.7 169.1 194.3
161.1 156.5 167.7 200.9
-1.6%
0.8%
0.8%
-3.3%
Advertising revenues
96.9
87.1 83.2 89.4 97.4
90.3 83.3 89.3 105.7
-3.5%
0.0%
0.1%
-7.8%
SIC channels
43.1
45.1 46.4 49.3 58.4
44.8 46.0 48.9 58.0
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
Others
24.1
26.3 28.0 30.4 38.5
26.0 27.1 29.4 37.2
1.0%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
Cash costs
-141.5 -136.1 -134.6 -141.2 -153.5 -136.7 -135.4 -141.7 -160.7
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-4.5%
Personnel costs
-27.7
-26.5 -25.8 -27.1 -29.4
-27.0 -26.4 -27.6 -31.4
-1.8%
-2.4%
-2.1%
-6.2%
Programming costs
-76.4
-73.3 -71.3 -74.8 -81.3
-71.8 -71.5 -74.8 -84.9
2.1%
-0.3%
0.0%
-4.2%
Other costs
-37.4
-36.3 -37.5 -39.3 -42.8
-38.0 -37.5 -39.2 -44.5
-4.3%
0.0%
0.3%
-3.9%
EBITDA
22.6
22.3 23.1 27.9 40.8
24.4 21.0 26.0 40.2
-8.3%
9.5%
7.3%
1.5%
EBITDA Margin
13.8% 14.1% 14.6% 16.5% 21.0% 15.1% 13.5% 15.5% 20.0%
-1.0pp
1.2pp
1.0pp
1.0pp
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Detail on Programming costs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - TV deferred rights (BS)
43.1
43.1 43.1 43.1 43.1
43.1 43.1 43.1 43.1
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
€ million
2011
Change in TV rights
"All in" Prog. Costs
% of ad. + thematics
0.5
-76.9
-55%
0.0
-73.3
-55%
0.0
-71.3
-55%
0.0
-74.8
-54%
0.0
-81.3
-52%
0.0
-71.8
-53%
0.0
-71.5
-55%
0.0
-74.8
-54%
0.0
-84.9
-52%
nm
2.1%
2.3pp
nm
-0.3%
-0.3pp
nm
0.0%
-0.2pp
nm
-4.2%
0.3pp
16
Impresa- TV detailed operating evolution
€ million
Revenues
SIC TV advertising
Thematic channels
Others
Cash Costs
Personnel costs
Programming Costs
Other Costs
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
YoY (€mn)
Revenues
SIC TV advertising
Thematic channels
Others
Cash Costs
Personnel costs
Programming Costs
Other Costs
EBITDA
YoY (%)
Revenues
SIC TV advertising
Thematic channels
Others
Cash Costs
Personnel costs
Programming Costs
Other Costs
EBITDA
2007
2008
2009
185.2 171.5
115.8 109.2
32.9
38.1
36.5
24.3
-149.4 -154.7
-31.2 -30.5
-76.2 -80.2
-42.0 -44.0
35.8
16.9
19.3% 9.8%
155.4
92.7
42.5
20.2
-132.8
-26.7
-74.6
-31.5
22.7
14.6%
21.2
0.0
1.7
19.5
-17.2
-3.6
-1.1
-12.6
4.0
-13.6
-6.6
5.2
-12.2
-5.3
0.7
-4.0
-2.0
-18.9
2010
08 February
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
173.0 164.1 158.5 157.7 164.1 169.1 175.8 177.5 181.5 186.3 189.7 194.3
105.9 96.9 87.1 83.2
87.1 89.4 93.0 92.1 93.4 95.3 95.8
97.4
42.1 43.1 45.1 46.4
47.8 49.3 51.1 52.5 53.9 55.4 56.9
58.4
25.0 24.1 26.3 28.0
29.2 30.4 31.6 32.9 34.2 35.6 37.0
38.5
-148.0 -141.5 -136.1 -134.6 -138.7 -141.2 -144.1 -144.6 -145.2 -149.0 -149.9 -153.5
-27.2 -27.7 -26.5 -25.8 -26.6 -27.1 -27.6 -27.7 -27.8 -28.6 -28.7 -29.4
-81.3 -76.4 -73.3 -71.3 -73.5 -74.8 -76.3 -76.6 -76.9 -78.9 -79.4 -81.3
-39.5 -37.4 -36.3 -37.5 -38.6 -39.3 -40.2 -40.3 -40.5 -41.5 -41.8 -42.8
25.0 22.6 22.3 23.1
25.4 27.9 31.6 32.8 36.3 37.3 39.8
40.8
14.5% 13.8% 14.1% 14.6% 15.5% 16.5% 18.0% 18.5% 20.0% 20.0% 21.0% 21.0%
-16.1
-16.5
4.4
-4.1
21.9
3.8
5.6
12.5
5.8
17.6
13.2
-0.4
4.8
-15.2
-0.6
-6.7
-8.0
2.3
-8.9
-9.1
1.0
-0.8
6.5
-0.5
4.9
2.1
-2.4
-5.7
-9.8
2.0
2.1
5.4
1.2
3.1
1.1
-0.3
12.9% -7.4% -9.4%
0.0% -5.7% -15.1%
5.3% 15.8% 11.6%
115.2% -33.5% -16.7%
13.0% 3.5% -14.2%
13.0% -2.2% -12.5%
1.4% 5.2% -7.0%
42.6% 4.8% -28.3%
12.5% -52.9% 34.4%
11.3%
14.2%
-1.0%
23.5%
11.5%
2.1%
8.9%
25.3%
10.4%
-5.1%
-8.5%
2.4%
-3.4%
-4.4%
1.8%
-6.0%
-5.4%
-9.5%
-3.5%
-10.1%
4.6%
8.8%
-3.8%
-4.5%
-4.0%
-2.9%
-1.3%
-0.8
-3.9
1.3
1.8
1.5
0.7
2.0
-1.2
0.7
6.5
3.8
1.4
1.2
-4.1
-0.8
-2.2
-1.1
2.4
-0.5% 4.1%
-4.4% 4.6%
2.9% 3.1%
6.7% 4.3%
-1.1% 3.0%
-2.5% 3.0%
-2.8% 3.0%
3.3% 3.0%
3.3% 10.3%
5.0
2.3
1.5
1.2
-2.5
-0.5
-1.3
-0.7
2.5
6.7
3.6
1.8
1.2
-2.9
-0.6
-1.6
-0.8
3.7
1.7
-0.9
1.4
1.3
-0.5
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
1.2
4.1
1.3
1.4
1.3
-0.6
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
3.5
4.8
1.9
1.5
1.4
-3.8
-0.7
-2.0
-1.1
1.0
3.4
0.5
1.5
1.4
-0.8
-0.2
-0.4
-0.2
2.6
4.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
-3.6
-0.7
-1.9
-1.0
1.0
3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.3%
2.7% 4.1% -1.0% 1.5%
3.1% 3.7% 2.7% 2.7%
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
1.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4%
1.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4%
1.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4%
1.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4%
9.7% 13.4% 3.8% 10.6%
2.6%
2.1%
2.7%
4.0%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
1.8%
0.5%
2.7%
4.0%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
6.9%
2.4%
1.6%
2.7%
4.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2013
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
0.7% 2.3%
-2.0% 1.4%
3.4% 2.9%
5.9% 4.0%
-0.1% 1.4%
-0.6% 1.4%
-0.5% 1.4%
1.3% 1.4%
5.4% 6.5%
ImpresaPublishing - detailed
operating evolution
€ million
Revenues
Sales of publications
Other revenues
Cash Costs
Personnel costs
Cost of sales
Other costs
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
YoY (€mn)
Revenues
Other revenues
Cash Costs
Personnel costs
Cost of sales
Other costs
EBITDA
YoY (%)
Revenues
Other revenues
Cash Costs
Personnel costs
Cost of sales
Other costs
EBITDA
2007
2008
2009
2010
91.7
53.5
26.9
11.3
-78.1
-23.1
-16.1
-39.0
15.5
12.0%
95.6
55.5
32.4
7.7
-89.7
-23.6
-16.3
-49.8
5.9
6.2%
91.9
44.8
34.5
12.6
-80.3
-24.7
-15.5
-40.0
11.7
12.7%
93.5
44.4
37.4
11.6
-83.3
-24.7
-15.6
-43.0
10.1
10.9%
-2.6
4.9
-4.9
-2.6
5.2
-0.8
2.1
3.9
2.7
-33.0
-18.1
-10.8
-4.0
23.4
8.1
7.7
7.6
-9.5
-3.7
-10.7
2.1
4.8
9.4
-1.1
0.8
9.8
5.7
-25.6% -3.9%
-24.6% -19.2%
-25.0%
6.5%
-34.2% 62.7%
-20.7% -10.5%
-25.6%
4.6%
-32.0% -4.7%
-13.3% -19.6%
-61.8% 97.2%
-2.0%
7.1%
-10.2%
-17.8%
-4.4%
2.6%
-8.0%
-6.4%
20.8%
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
81.6 69.3
36.7 29.7
34.5 30.7
10.3
8.8
-78.2 -70.4
-23.4 -21.8
-14.8 -10.6
-40.0 -38.0
3.4
-1.2
4.1% -1.7%
61.5
25.3
27.5
8.7
-60.0
-20.0
-10.0
-30.0
1.5
2.4%
62.2
25.8
27.5
8.9
-60.9
-19.1
-10.3
-31.5
1.2
2.0%
63.4
26.3
28.1
9.0
-59.0
-18.8
-9.6
-30.6
4.4
7.0%
64.7
26.8
28.6
9.2
-59.5
-19.2
-9.9
-30.5
5.2
8.0%
1.6
-0.5
2.9
-0.9
-3.1
0.0
-0.1
-3.0
-1.5
-11.9
-7.7
-2.9
-1.3
5.1
1.3
0.8
3.0
-6.8
-12.3
-7.0
-3.8
-1.5
7.8
1.6
4.1
2.0
-4.5
-7.8
-4.5
-3.2
-0.1
10.4
1.8
0.6
8.0
2.7
0.7
0.5
0.0
0.2
-0.9
0.9
-0.3
-1.5
-0.2
1.2
0.5
0.6
0.2
2.0
0.3
0.7
0.9
3.2
1.3
0.5
0.6
0.2
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
0.1
0.7
1.7%
-1.0%
8.5%
-7.4%
3.8%
0.0%
0.5%
7.5%
nm
-12.7%
-17.2%
-7.7%
-11.4%
-6.1%
-5.2%
-5.4%
-6.9%
-66.9%
-15.1%
-19.0%
-11.0%
-15.0%
-9.9%
-7.0%
-28.0%
-5.0%
######
-11.2% 1.1%
-15.0% 2.0%
-10.5% 0.0%
-1.0% 2.0%
-14.8% 1.5%
-8.2% -4.4%
-6.0% 2.9%
-21.1% 5.0%
###### -16.5%
66.0 67.3 68.6 70.0
71.4
27.4 27.9 28.5 29.0
29.6
29.2 29.8 30.4 31.0
31.6
9.4
9.6
9.8 10.0
10.2
-60.0 -60.6 -61.1 -62.0 -62.8
-19.1 -19.4 -19.5 -19.8 -20.1
-9.9 -10.0 -10.1 -10.2 -10.4
-31.0 -31.2 -31.4 -31.9 -32.4
5.9
6.7
7.6
8.1
8.6
9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0%
1.3
0.5
0.6
0.2
-0.5
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
0.8
1.3
0.5
0.6
0.2
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
0.8
1.3
0.6
0.6
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
0.8
1.4
0.6
0.6
0.2
-0.9
-0.2
-0.1
-0.5
0.5
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
-3.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
-1.7% 1.9% -0.3% 1.3% 1.0%
-7.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.4%
-2.9% -0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.7%
###### 16.6% 14.8% 13.3% 12.2%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.4%
1.2%
1.3%
1.6%
6.6%
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
-6.1% 2.0%
-8.0% 2.0%
-5.1% 2.0%
-3.3% 2.0%
-6.8% 1.1%
-5.3% 1.1%
-10.3% 1.4%
-6.5% 0.9%
7.2% 11.6%
17
ImpresaSum-of-the-parts
€ million
EV
Stake
Television
287.2 100.0%
Publishing
61.4 100.0%
Holding&Adjustments
2.0 100.0%
Non-Operating Assets
Sum-of-the-Parts
Adjusted Net Debt YE12 (including financial leasings)
Minorities
Equity Value
Number of shares (mn)
Price Target - YE13 (€/ share)
08 February
2013
Value to
Previous
Method Weight
Implied Multiple
Revision
Impresa
EV
287.2
DCF
81% EV/EBITDA 13 12.5x
248.6
16%
61.4
DCF
17% EV/EBITDA 13 41.2x
58.5
5%
2.0
DCF
1%
1.3
nm
5.2
BV
1%
5.2
0%
355.8
100% EV/EBITDA 13 14.5x
313.6
13%
218.5
221.0
-1%
0.0
P/BV 11 -0.6x
-0.3
137.4
92.9
168.0
168.0
0.80
0.55
45%
Impresa - Discount
rates
Risk-Free Rate
Country risk premium
Market Premium
Unlevered Beta
Levered Beta
Cost of Equity*
Cost of Debt **
Corporate Tax Rate
After-tax Cost of Debt
Leverage
WACC
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Real perpetuity growth rate
LT Inflation
WACC-g
New Assumptions
2013-2015
2016-2021
Terminal value
2.50%
2.50%
2.50%
7.50%
4.50%
1.50%
5.00%
5.00%
5.00%
0.95
0.95
0.95
1.24
1.24
1.24
17.99%
14.27%
10.55%
9.00%
7.50%
6.00%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
6.39%
5.32%
4.26%
30%
30%
30%
14.51%
11.59%
8.67%
2.52%
1.00%
1.50%
6.15%
Previous Assumptions
2012-2015
2016-2021
Terminal value
2.50%
2.50%
2.50%
10.50%
6.00%
1.50%
5.00%
5.00%
5.00%
0.95
0.95
0.95
1.24
1.24
1.24
21.71%
16.13%
10.55%
9.00%
7.50%
6.00%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
6.39%
5.32%
4.26%
30%
30%
30%
17.11%
12.89%
8.67%
2.52%
1.00%
1.50%
6.15%
*Cost of equity is calculated as the sum of the risk free rate plus country risk premium and market risk premium, the latter two
multiplied by the levered beta. Risk free rate is the German 10-year Government bond yield. Country risk premium results
from the difference between the local Sovereign yield and the German 10-year Government bond yield multiplied by a
volatility factor (ratio that relates equity with bonds volatility). For country risk premium in perpetuity, we assume that the
German and local 10-year sovereign yields will converge to respective last 10-year averages. Market risk premium is set at
5%.
**Cost of debt before tax is the debt spread (long-term issuances) over the German 10-year sovereign rate.
18
Impresa - Shareholder
structure
08 February
2013
Shareholder Structure- Sep 30th 2012
# Shares
Impreger - SGPS*
87,042,994
Direct stake
84,514,588
Management
2,528,406
Grupo Ongoing
40,362,214
Direct stake
2,180,000
Investoffice
32,282,214
CTN
5,880,000
Administrative body
20,000
Madre - SGPS
8,344,362
BPI
6,210,498
Direct stake
6,200,000
BPI + BPI Vida
10,498
Own Shares
0
Free Float
26,039,932
Total Shares
168,000,000
Voting Shares
168,000,000
*held by Balseger (99.99% Pinto Balsemão, Impresa`s Chairman/CEO)
Economic
Voting Rights
Stake
51.81%
51.81%
50.31%
50.31%
1.51%
1.51%
24.03%
24.03%
1.30%
1.30%
19.22%
19.22%
3.50%
3.50%
0.01%
0.01%
4.97%
4.97%
3.70%
3.70%
3.69%
3.69%
0.01%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
15.50%
15.50%
Source: Company data; Millennium investment banking
Impresa – DCF
- TV
€ million
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
EBIT
(-) Taxes on EBIT
(+) Non-Cash Items
(-) Capital Expenditure
(-) Working Capital Changes
Free Operating Cash Flow
Discount Factor
PV of Explicit Period
PV of Terminal Value
Enterprise Value
19.4
-5.1
5.6
-5.2
-1.0
13.7
17.1
-4.5
5.6
-6.5
-0.5
11.1
17.2
-4.6
5.1
-1.7
-0.8
15.2
17.7
-4.7
5.4
-1.7
-0.8
15.8
1.00
112.9
174.3
287.2
20.0
-5.3
5.4
-4.1
-0.8
15.2
0.87
22.5
-6.0
5.4
-4.2
-0.8
16.9
0.76
26.2
-6.9
5.4
-4.4
-0.9
19.4
0.68
27.5
-7.3
5.3
-4.4
-0.9
20.2
0.61
31.0
-8.2
5.3
-4.5
-0.9
22.6
0.55
32.0
-8.5
5.2
-4.7
-0.9
23.2
0.49
34.7
-9.2
5.1
-4.7
-0.9
24.9
0.44
35.7
-9.5
5.1
-3.9
-1.0
26.5
0.40
11.3%
7.9%
14.5%
3.0%
-5.1%
6.7%
13.8%
4.0%
-3.5%
9.6%
14.1%
1.1%
-0.5%
10.1%
14.6%
1.1%
4.1%
9.3%
15.5%
2.5%
3.0%
10.0%
16.5%
2.5%
4.0%
11.1%
18.0%
2.5%
1.0%
11.4%
18.5%
2.5%
2.3%
12.5%
20.0%
2.5%
2.6%
12.4%
20.0%
2.5%
1.8%
13.2%
21.0%
2.5%
2.4%
13.6%
21.0%
2.0%
Revenues Growth
FCFF As a % of Revenues
EBITDA Margin
Capex to Sales
2021E
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
7.1%
8.0%
7.1%
8.0%
-0.6% -1.1%
-10.3% -1.4%
14.0%
2.3%
11.1%
7.8%
0.6%
1.0%
Impresa - DCF
- Publishing
€ million
EBIT
(-) Taxes on EBIT
(+) Non-Cash Items
Free Cash Flow to the Firm
Discount Factor
Enterprise Value
Revenues Growth
EBITDA Margin
Capex to Sales
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
9.4
-2.6
0.8
-0.4
0.5
7.6
2.7
-0.7
0.7
-0.7
0.5
2.4
-1.8
0.5
0.6
-0.4
0.4
-0.7
1.0
-0.3
0.5
-0.4
0.3
1.2
1.00
20.20
41.17
61.4
0.9
-0.2
0.4
-0.4
0.3
0.9
0.87
4.1
-1.1
0.4
-0.4
0.3
3.3
0.76
4.8
-1.3
0.4
-0.4
0.3
3.8
0.68
5.5
-1.5
0.4
-0.4
0.3
4.3
0.61
6.3
-1.7
0.4
-0.4
0.3
4.9
0.55
7.1
-2.0
0.4
-0.4
0.3
5.5
0.49
7.6
-2.1
0.4
-0.4
0.3
5.9
0.44
8.1
-2.2
0.4
-0.4
0.4
6.3
0.40
1.7%
8.2%
10.9%
0.4%
-12.7%
2.9%
4.1%
0.9%
-15.1%
-1.0%
-1.7%
0.6%
-11.2%
1.9%
2.4%
0.6%
1.1%
1.5%
2.0%
0.6%
2.0%
5.1%
7.0%
0.6%
2.0%
5.9%
8.0%
0.6%
2.0%
6.6%
9.0%
0.6%
2.0%
7.3%
10.0%
0.6%
2.0%
8.0%
11.0%
0.6%
2.0%
8.4%
11.5%
0.6%
2.0%
8.8%
12.0%
0.6%
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
11.1% 12.3%
11.1% 12.3%
-14.2%
2.0%
-14.7%
2.0%
-9.7%
2.0%
8.1% 11.5%
19
Impresa – P&L - quarterly
evolution
08 February
€ million
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12 4Q12E 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E
Revenues
Television
Publishing
Other & Inter-Seg.
Operating Cash Costs
Television
Publishing
Other & Inter-Seg.
EBITDA
Margin
Television
Publishing
Other & Inter-Seg.
Depreciation
Impairments
EBIT
Margin
Financial Results
EBT
Margin
Discont. Operations
Income Taxes
Minorities
Net Profit
Margin
52.6
36.0
15.9
0.7
-51.5
-34.7
-15.9
-1.0
1.1
2.0%
1.3
0.0
-0.3
-2.0
0.0
-0.9
-1.7%
-3.2
-4.1
-7.9%
0.0
0.8
0.0
-3.3
-6.3%
63.6
44.4
19.1
0.2
-54.3
-36.3
-17.3
-0.6
9.4
14.7%
8.1
1.7
-0.4
-1.8
-0.5
7.0
11.0%
-3.3
3.8
5.9%
0.0
-1.6
0.0
2.2
3.5%
51.0
34.3
16.0
0.6
-49.2
-32.4
-16.3
-0.6
1.7
3.4%
1.9
-0.2
0.0
-1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1%
-3.5
-3.5
-6.9%
0.0
1.0
0.0
-2.5
-4.9%
62.6
50.5
43.8
35.9
18.3
14.1
0.5
0.6
-54.6
-49.8
-32.8
-34.3
-21.0
-14.5
-0.9
-1.0
8.0
0.7
12.8%
1.4%
11.0
1.6
-2.7
-0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-1.7
-1.9
0.0
0.0
6.3
-1.2
10.0% -2.3%
-3.3
-3.1
3.0
-4.3
4.7% -8.5%
0.0
0.0
2.5
-0.9
0.0
0.0
5.5
-5.2
8.8% -10.3%
61.3
43.9
16.9
0.6
-52.0
-35.8
-15.9
-0.3
9.3
15.2%
8.1
1.0
0.3
-1.8
0.0
7.5
12.2%
-3.2
4.3
7.1%
0.0
-0.9
0.0
3.4
5.6%
49.0
34.3
14.2
0.5
-47.7
-32.0
-15.0
-0.6
1.3
2.7%
2.3
-0.8
-0.2
-1.8
0.0
-0.5
-1.0%
-3.5
-4.0
-8.1%
0.0
0.2
0.0
-3.8
-7.8%
60.4
43.6
16.3
0.5
-47.7
-32.5
-14.6
-0.6
12.7
21.0%
11.1
1.7
-0.2
-1.8
0.0
10.9
18.1%
-2.8
8.1
13.4%
0.0
-0.4
0.0
7.7
12.8%
1Q12
2Q12
YoY
YoY
-9%
-8%
-6%
-1%
-13%
-15%
-36%
-87%
-10%
-11%
-6%
-6%
-14%
-14%
-44%
-71%
46%
19%
0.8pp 3.3pp
-18%
28%
nm
-23%
-58%
-39%
-8%
-12%
nm
nm
-37%
nm
0.7pp 45.5pp
12%
-17%
-4%
nm
-0.4pp 46.0pp
nm
nm
-5%
2%
-65%
-41%
-4%
nm
-0.4pp 45.8pp
3Q12
4Q12
YoY YoYE
-9%
-7%
-4%
-3%
-17%
-15%
-33%
8%
-6%
-4%
0%
-3%
-14%
2%
-52%
-67%
-51%
-22%
-2.9pp -2.3pp
-43%
-2%
nm
nm
nm
-84%
-14%
-15%
nm
nm
-98%
43%
-2.7pp 3.5pp
16%
-8%
nm
nm
-4.2pp 3.5pp
nm
nm
nm
nm
-87%
nm
71%
nm
-2.3pp 10.2pp
1Q13
YoYE
-4%
0%
-11%
-22%
-3%
-1%
-8%
0%
-35%
-0.7pp
19%
nm
57%
-5%
nm
31%
-0.6pp
-4%
3%
-0.6pp
nm
nm
nm
56%
-3.9pp
2Q13
YoYE
-4%
-1%
-11%
nm
-4%
-1%
-8%
-54%
-1%
0.4pp
0%
-42%
nm
-1%
nm
7%
1.2pp
-3%
15%
1.2pp
nm
-42%
nm
56%
2.1pp
2013
3Q13
YoYE
-4%
0%
-11%
-23%
-3%
-1%
-8%
13%
-24%
-0.7pp
17%
nm
nm
5%
nm
nm
-1.0pp
-1%
13%
-1.2pp
nm
-81%
nm
53%
-2.9pp
4Q13
YoYE
-4%
0%
-11%
-16%
-13%
-1%
-31%
-26%
59%
8.3pp
2%
nm
-43%
5%
nm
74%
8.1pp
-15%
nm
8.7pp
nm
nm
nm
41%
4.0pp
Impresa – P&L –
quarterly evolution –
breakdown by business area
€ million
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12 4Q12E 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E
1Q12
YoY
2Q12
YoY
3Q12
YoY
4Q12
YoYE
1Q13
YoYE
2Q13
YoYE
3Q13
YoYE
4Q13
YoYE
Cons. Revenues
Advertising
Thematic channels
Circulation
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
52.6
25.7
11.2
7.5
8.1
-51.5
1.1
63.6
36.4
11.3
7.4
8.6
-54.3
9.4
51.0
23.4
11.3
8.4
7.9
-49.2
1.7
62.6
31.4
11.3
7.4
12.5
-54.6
8.0
50.5
23.9
11.5
6.7
8.3
-49.8
0.7
61.3
33.8
11.6
6.6
9.3
-52.0
9.3
49.0
21.7
11.6
7.5
8.1
-47.7
1.3
60.4
29.2
11.6
6.7
13.0
-47.7
12.7
-9%
-16%
5%
-11%
-2%
-10%
46%
-8%
-10%
1%
-12%
-4%
-11%
19%
-9%
-14%
4%
-11%
-8%
-6%
-51%
-7%
-12%
8%
-10%
-2%
-4%
-22%
-4%
-7%
3%
-11%
3%
-3%
-35%
-4%
-7%
3%
-11%
8%
-4%
-1%
-4%
-7%
3%
-11%
3%
-3%
-24%
-4%
-7%
3%
-11%
4%
-13%
59%
2.0%
14.7%
3.4%
12.8%
1.4%
15.2%
2.7%
21.0%
0.8pp
3.3pp
-2.9pp
-2.4pp
-0.7pp
0.4pp
-0.7pp
8.3pp
36.0
19.1
11.2
5.7
-34.7
1.3
44.4
27.2
11.3
5.9
-36.3
8.1
34.3
17.3
11.3
5.7
-32.4
1.9
43.8
23.5
11.3
9.0
-32.8
11.0
35.9
18.3
11.5
6.1
-34.3
1.6
43.9
26.0
11.6
6.3
-35.8
8.1
34.3
16.5
11.6
6.1
-32.0
2.3
43.6
22.5
11.6
9.6
-32.5
11.1
-6%
-14%
5%
4%
-6%
-18%
-1%
-7%
1%
32%
-6%
28%
-4%
-11%
4%
3%
0%
-43%
-3%
-9%
8%
3%
-3%
-2%
0%
-4%
3%
7%
-1%
19%
-1%
-4%
3%
7%
-1%
0%
0%
-4%
3%
7%
-1%
17%
0%
-4%
3%
7%
-1%
2%
3.7%
18.2%
5.7%
25.0%
4.4%
18.3%
6.6%
25.5%
-0.5pp
4.1pp
-3.9pp
0.1pp
0.7pp
0.1pp
1.0pp
0.5pp
15.9
6.6
7.5
1.8
-15.9
0.0
19.1
9.2
7.4
2.4
-17.3
1.7
16.0
6.1
8.4
1.6
-16.3
-0.2
18.3
7.9
7.4
3.0
-21.0
-2.7
14.1
5.6
6.7
1.7
-14.5
-0.5
16.9
7.8
6.6
2.4
-15.9
1.0
14.2
5.2
7.5
1.6
-15.0
-0.8
16.3
6.7
6.7
3.0
-14.6
1.7
-13%
-19%
-11%
1%
-14%
nm
-15%
-17%
-12%
-18%
-14%
-23%
-17%
-21%
-11%
-27%
-14%
nm
-15%
-20%
-10%
-14%
2%
nm
-11%
-15%
-11%
-1%
-8%
nm
-11%
-15%
-11%
-1%
-8%
-42%
-11%
-15%
-11%
-1%
-8%
nm
-11%
-15%
-11%
-1%
-31%
nm
0.0%
9.0%
-1.5%
-14.5%
-3.4%
5.8%
-5.4%
10.7%
1.3pp
-0.9pp
-3.5pp
-19.1pp
-3.4pp
-3.2pp
-3.9pp
25.3pp
0.7
0.7
0.0
-1.0
-0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.6
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.2
-0.9
-0.3
0.6
0.5
0.1
-0.6
-0.1
0.6
0.5
0.1
-0.6
-0.1
0.5
0.4
0.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.5
0.4
0.1
-0.6
-0.2
-36%
89%
-97%
-44%
-58%
-87%
47%
nm
-71%
-39%
-33%
14%
-65%
-52%
nm
0%
-38%
nm
-67%
-85%
-22%
-27%
94%
-35%
-67%
nm
-5%
nm
-1%
-79%
-23%
-1%
-72%
13%
nm
-16%
23%
-77%
-26%
-43%
-39.0% -210.5%
2.9%
-58.4%
-16.4%
-16.4%
-42.2%
-40.0%
22.7pp 194.1pp
-45.1pp
18.4pp
Margin
TV Revenues
Advertising
Thematic channels
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Publishing Rev.
Advertising
Circulation
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Other & Inter-Seg.
InfoPortugal
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
20.3pp -164.6pp
38.9pp 322.6pp
20
Impresa –FY12 earnings –
P&L
€ million
Revenues
Television
Publishing
Other & Inter-Seg.
Opex
Television
Publishing
Other & Inter-Seg.
EBITDA
Margin
Television
Publishing
Other & Inter-Seg.
Depreciation
Impairments
EBIT
Margin
Financial Results
EBT
Margin
Discont. operations
Income Taxes
Minorities
Net Profit
Margin
FY11 FY12E
08 February
YoYE
4Q11
3Q12 4Q12E
249.8 229.8
-8%
164.1 158.5
-3%
81.6
69.3
-15%
4.1
2.0
-50%
-227.5 -209.6
-8%
-141.5 -136.1
-4%
-78.2 -70.4
-10%
-7.8
-3.1
-61%
22.3
20.1
-10%
8.9% 8.8% -0.2pp
22.6
22.3
-1%
3.4
-1.2
nm
-3.7
-1.0
-73%
-8.2
-7.2
-12%
-33.3
-0.5
nm
-19.2
12.4
nm
-7.7% 5.4% 13.1pp
-13.4 -13.4
0%
-32.6
-0.9
-97%
-13.1% -0.4% 12.7pp
0.0
0.0
nm
-2.4
2.8
nm
0.0
0.0
3%
-35.1
1.9
nm
-14.0% 0.8% 14.8pp
67.2
45.1
21.5
0.5
-57.0
-33.9
-20.5
-2.6
10.2
15.1%
11.2
1.0
-2.0
-2.0
-3.8
4.4
6.5%
-3.6
0.8
1.2%
0.0
-1.8
0.0
-1.0
-1.5%
51.0
34.3
16.0
0.6
-49.2
-32.4
-16.3
-0.6
1.7
3.4%
1.9
-0.2
0.0
-1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1%
-3.5
-3.5
-6.9%
0.0
1.0
0.0
-2.5
-4.9%
YoYE
2013
QoQE
62.6
-7%
23%
43.8
-3%
27%
18.3
-15%
14%
0.5
0%
-8%
-54.6
-4%
11%
-32.8
-3%
1%
-21.0
2%
29%
-0.9
-67%
50%
8.0
-22%
nm
12.8% -2.4pp 9.4pp
11.0
-2%
nm
-2.7
nm
nm
-0.3
-85%
nm
-1.7
-15%
0%
0.0
nm #DIV/0!
6.3
43%
nm
10.0% 0.5pp
nm
-3.3
-7%
-6%
3.0
nm
nm
4.7%
nm
nm
0.0
nm
nm
2.5
nm
nm
0.0
nm
nm
5.5
nm
nm
8.8% 10.2pp 13.6pp
Impresa –FY12 earnings –
operating
performance breakdown
€ million
Cons. Revenues
Advertising
Thematic channels
Circulation
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
TV Revenues
Advertising
Thematic channels
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Publishing
Advertising
Circulation
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Other & Inter-Seg.
DGSM
InfoPortugal
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
FY11
FY12E
YoYE
4Q11
3Q12
4Q12
YoYE
QoQE
249.8
133.6
43.1
34.5
38.5
-227.5
22.3
229.8
116.8
45.1
30.7
37.1
-209.6
20.1
-8%
-13%
5%
-11%
-4%
-8%
-10%
67.2
35.8
10.4
8.3
12.7
-57.0
10.2
51.0
23.4
11.3
8.4
7.9
-49.2
1.7
62.6
31.4
11.3
7.4
12.5
-54.6
8.0
-7%
-12%
8%
-10%
-2%
-4%
-22%
23%
34%
0%
-11%
58%
11%
nm
8.9%
8.8%
-0.2pp
15.1%
3.4%
12.8%
-2.4pp
9.4pp
164.1
96.9
43.1
24.1
-141.5
22.6
158.5
87.1
45.1
26.3
-136.1
22.3
-3%
-10%
5%
9%
-4%
-1%
45.1
26.0
10.4
8.7
-33.9
11.2
34.3
17.3
11.3
5.7
-32.4
1.9
43.8
23.5
11.3
9.0
-32.8
11.0
-3%
-9%
8%
3%
-3%
-2%
27%
36%
0%
57%
1%
nm
13.8%
14.1%
0.3pp
24.9%
5.7%
25.0%
0.1pp
19.4pp
81.6
36.7
34.5
10.3
-78.2
3.4
69.3
29.7
30.7
8.8
-70.4
-1.2
-15%
-19%
-11%
-15%
-10%
nm
21.5
9.8
8.3
3.5
-20.5
1.0
16.0
6.1
8.4
1.6
-16.3
-0.2
18.3
7.9
7.4
3.0
-21.0
-2.7
-15%
-20%
-10%
-14%
2%
nm
14%
29%
-11%
87%
29%
nm
4.1%
-1.7%
-5.8pp
4.6%
-1.5%
-14.5%
-19.1pp
-13.1pp
4.1
2.2
1.6
0.3
-7.8
-3.7
2.0
0.3
1.9
0.1
-3.1
-1.0
-50%
-87%
22%
-68%
-61%
-73%
0.5
0.1
0.5
-0.1
-2.6
-2.0
0.6
-0.3
0.4
0.4
-0.6
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.0
-0.9
-0.3
0%
nm
-38%
nm
-67%
-85%
-8%
nm
-20%
-92%
50%
nm
-91.8%
-49.5%
42.3pp -381.0%
2.9%
-58.4% 322.6pp
-61.2pp
21
Impresa - Balance sheet
08 February
€ million
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2021E
Assets
Non-current assets
Goodwill / Intangibles
Fixed assets
Investments
Other
Deferred TV rights
Current assets
Inventories
Accounts receivable
Other
Cash & equivalents
Equity
Minority Interests
Liabilities
Financial debt
Accounts payable
Other
484.4
394.2
337.6
37.0
6.1
13.5
42.6
47.7
2.8
32.0
5.9
6.9
159.1
-0.2
325.6
238.4
35.1
52.1
441.8
357.9
303.1
37.9
6.2
10.6
43.1
40.8
3.3
29.0
4.3
4.3
123.8
0.1
318.0
236.3
38.0
43.7
433.6
353.4
303.1
33.3
6.2
10.8
43.1
37.1
2.5
26.6
4.0
4.0
125.7
0.0
307.9
222.4
35.0
50.5
427.4
348.7
303.1
28.5
6.2
10.8
43.1
35.6
2.4
25.7
3.8
3.8
127.7
0.0
299.7
220.3
32.8
46.6
426.2
346.4
303.1
26.2
6.2
10.8
43.1
36.8
2.4
26.5
3.9
3.9
132.6
0.0
293.6
214.2
33.7
45.7
425.1
344.2
303.1
24.0
6.2
10.8
43.1
37.8
2.4
27.3
4.0
4.0
141.8
0.0
283.2
204.9
33.8
44.5
421.2
335.1
303.1
14.9
6.2
10.8
43.1
43.1
2.6
31.2
4.6
4.6
188.2
0.0
233.1
146.1
36.6
50.3
2013
CAGR 11- CAGR 1515E
21E
-1.0%
-0.2%
-1.0%
-0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-10.8%
-7.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.9%
2.2%
-7.1%
1.3%
-1.5%
2.3%
-1.5%
2.3%
-1.5%
2.3%
3.5%
4.8%
nm
3.5%
-2.8%
-3.2%
-3.5%
-5.5%
-2.9%
1.3%
0.5%
2.1%
Impresa - Income
statement
€ million
Operating Revenues
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortisation
EBIT
Net Financials
EBT
Taxes
EBM
Minority Interests
Net Income
Net Earnings
EPS (€)
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2021E
271.1
-237.5
33.7
-8.1
25.6
-11.9
13.7
-3.8
9.9
0.1
10.1
10.1
0.06
249.8
-227.5
22.3
-8.2
-19.2
-13.4
-32.6
-2.4
-35.0
0.0
-35.1
-35.1
-0.21
229.8
-209.6
20.1
-7.2
12.4
-13.4
-0.9
2.8
1.9
0.0
1.9
1.9
0.01
221.3
-196.7
24.6
-7.2
17.4
-13.3
4.1
-2.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
2.0
0.01
228.7
-201.8
26.9
-7.2
19.7
-13.0
6.8
-1.8
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
0.03
235.2
-202.6
32.6
-7.2
25.4
-12.8
12.5
-3.3
9.2
0.0
9.2
9.2
0.05
269.3
-219.4
49.9
-7.0
43.0
-9.5
33.4
-7.9
25.6
0.0
25.5
25.5
0.15
CAGR
11-15E
-1.5%
-2.9%
10.0%
-3.0%
nm
-1.1%
nm
8.4%
nm
3.5%
nm
nm
nm
CAGR
15-21E
2.3%
1.3%
7.4%
-0.6%
9.2%
-4.9%
17.8%
15.4%
18.5%
3.5%
18.6%
18.6%
17.9%
Impresa - Cash-flow
statement
€ million
2010
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2021E
Cash Flow from Operations
Cash Flow from Investing
Cash Flow from Financing
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Dividends paid
23.6
-6.4
-16.1
15.4
0.0
-28.1
26.7
-63.5
1.3
0.0
16.0
-2.4
-14.0
14.0
0.0
4.5
-2.5
-2.2
2.0
0.0
11.1
-4.9
-6.1
6.2
0.0
15.5
-5.1
-9.3
10.4
0.0
40.4
-5.9
-27.4
34.5
-18.6
CAGR
11-15E
nm
nm
-38.1%
69.6%
nm
CAGR
15-21E
17.3%
2.7%
19.7%
22.0%
nm
Impresa –
Leverage Indicators
€ million
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2021E
CAGR
11-15E
CAGR
15-21E
EBITDA
Capex
EBITDA-Capex
EBITDA-Capex-Dividends
Financial Costs, Net
Net Debt
Net Debt / EBITDA (x)
Net Debt / Equity (x)
Net Debt / Capital Employed (x)
EBITDA / Financial Costs (x)
33.7
6.0
27.7
27.7
-11.7
231.4
6.9
1.5
0.6
-2.9
22.3
7.8
14.5
14.5
-14.3
232.0
10.4
1.9
0.6
-1.6
20.1
2.5
17.6
17.6
-14.2
218.5
10.8
1.7
0.6
-1.4
24.6
2.5
22.1
22.1
-14.2
216.5
8.8
1.7
0.6
-1.7
26.9
4.9
22.0
22.0
-14.0
210.3
7.8
1.6
0.6
-1.9
32.6
5.1
27.5
22.9
-14.1
200.8
6.2
1.4
0.6
-2.3
49.9
4.9
45.0
24.5
-10.9
141.5
2.8
0.8
0.4
-4.6
10.0%
-10.2%
17.4%
12.2%
-0.4%
-3.5%
-12.3%
-6.8%
-1.5%
10.4%
7.4%
-0.5%
8.5%
1.1%
-4.2%
-5.7%
-12.1%
-10.0%
-5.1%
12.0%
22
08 February
2013
Media Capital
We revised upwards Media Capital price target to €2.45 YE13 from €2.15 YE13 (keeping no recommendation,
given low free-float: 0.26%).
Updated price target benefited from fine-tune in estimates (+€0.05 positive effect) while changes in WACC had a
€0.25 positive impact on price target (following the decline of the Portuguese Sovereign 10-year Government
Bonds, we updated the local sovereign yield to 8% from 10%.
Overall, TVI is being threatened by SIC/Impresa as most watched TV station in Portugal while it`s increasingly
focused on cable TV. We highlight following rising audience shares in cable news channel TVI24, TVI will start
further cable channels: +TVI and TVI Ficção are on the pipeline. Audiovisual segment reflects an overall decline
in TV activity while Entertainment segment is showing some difficulties (penalized by illegal downloadings). We
highlight radio is showing encouraging numbers, benefiting from rising audience shares and growing advertising
numbers.
We expect Media Capital will disclose 4Q12 Earnings on the 2nd half of February. Earnings will reflect tough
environment, penalized by declining advertising revenues.
MCP - Breakdown of
changes in price
target (€)
Breakdown of change in price target
3.60
2.70
€ 2.15
+ € 0.05
Previous valuation (YE13)
Change in estimates
+ € 0.25
€ 2.45
Changes in WACC
New YE13 price target
1.80
0.90
0.00
23
MCP - Shareholder
structure
08 February
2013
Shareholder Structure - Sep 30th 2012
# Shares
Vertix (100% Prisa)
PortQuay West (Pais do Amaral)
Caixa de Aforros de Galicia, Vigo, Ourense e Pontevedra
Own Shares
Free Float
Total Shares
Voting Shares
71,576,289
8,451,318
4,269,869
0
215,704
84,513,180
84,513,180
Economic
Stake
84.69%
10.00%
5.05%
0.00%
0.26%
Voting
Rights
84.69%
10.00%
5.05%
0.00%
0.26%
MCP
– Estimates revision
€ million
Revenues
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
Cash Costs
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
EBITDA
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
Margin
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
D&A
EBIT
Financial Results
EBT
Taxes
EBM
Minority Interests
Disc. Operations
Net Income
2011
224.4
151.4
81.0
11.8
14.5
-34.3
-195.7
-116.8
-85.9
-13.0
-12.3
32.3
28.6
34.6
-4.9
-1.3
2.2
-2.0
12.8%
22.8%
-6.1%
-10.7%
15.4%
5.8%
-11.8
16.8
-6.5
10.4
-8.4
2.0
-0.8
nm
1.2
New Estimates
2012E 2013E 2015E
182.1 175.3 193.0
142.0 137.1 149.2
51.4
46.3
50.1
5.4
5.0
5.4
13.3
13.8
15.1
-29.9 -26.9
-26.7
-144.8 -145.4 -153.8
-108.6 -109.7 -114.8
-48.3 -44.0
-45.3
-5.1
-4.7
-5.1
-11.3 -11.5
-12.8
28.6
24.4
24.3
37.3
29.9
39.2
33.4
27.4
34.3
3.1
2.3
4.8
0.3
0.2
0.3
1.9
2.3
2.3
-1.3
-2.4
-2.4
20.5% 17.1% 20.3%
23.5% 20.0% 23.0%
6.0% 5.0%
9.5%
5.0% 5.0%
5.0%
14.5% 17.0% 15.0%
4.5% 9.0%
9.0%
-11.4
-5.1
-4.7
25.9
24.8
34.4
-9.0
-7.6
-6.8
16.9
17.3
27.6
-6.7
-6.9
-10.1
10.2
10.4
17.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
nm
10.2
10.4
17.5
2021E
197.3
144.9
57.2
6.5
15.7
-26.9
-158.1
-113.0
-51.5
-6.5
-14.1
26.9
39.2
31.9
5.7
0.0
1.6
0.0
19.8%
22.0%
10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-4.2
35.0
-5.7
29.3
-10.1
19.2
0.0
nm
19.2
Old Estimates
2012E 2013E 2015E
179.0 165.3
176.9
141.6 127.5
133.4
52.6
52.6
56.9
5.1
5.3
5.7
13.9
13.8
15.0
-34.3 -33.8
-34.1
-145.7 -135.3 -140.0
-111.9 -102.0 -102.7
-49.7 -49.0
-51.5
-4.9
-5.0
-5.5
-11.7 -11.4
-12.7
32.6
32.1
32.4
33.3
30.0
36.9
29.7
25.5
30.7
2.9
3.7
5.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
-1.7
-1.7
-1.7
18.6% 18.2% 20.8%
21.0% 20.0% 23.0%
5.5% 7.0%
9.5%
4.0% 4.0%
4.0%
16.0% 17.0% 15.0%
5.0% 5.0%
5.0%
-11.0
-5.2
-4.8
22.3
24.8
32.1
-8.3
-6.9
-6.2
14.0
17.9
25.9
-5.4
-6.6
-9.0
8.6
11.3
16.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
nm
8.6
11.3
16.9
2021E
194.5
141.9
65.1
6.8
15.6
-34.9
-155.2
-110.7
-58.6
-6.8
-14.1
34.9
39.3
31.2
6.5
0.0
1.6
0.0
20.2%
22.0%
10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-4.4
34.8
-5.0
29.8
-9.5
20.3
0.0
nm
20.3
2012E
1.7%
0.3%
-2.3%
4.7%
-4.5%
-12.7%
-0.6%
-2.9%
-2.8%
3.6%
-2.8%
nm
11.8%
12.2%
6.6%
nm
-13.4%
nm
1.8pp
2.5pp
0.5pp
1.0pp
-1.5pp
-0.5pp
3.7%
15.9%
8.4%
20.2%
22.8%
18.6%
nm
nm
18.6%
Change
2013E 2015E
6.1%
9.1%
7.6% 11.8%
-12.1% -12.1%
-5.7%
-5.0%
0.5%
0.4%
-20.6% -21.7%
7.5%
9.8%
7.6% 11.8%
-10.2% -12.1%
-6.6%
-6.0%
0.5%
0.4%
nm
nm
-0.4%
6.3%
7.6% 11.8%
-37.2% -12.1%
nm
18.7%
0.5%
0.4%
nm
40.9%
-1.1pp -0.5pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
-2.0pp
0.0pp
1.0pp
1.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
4.0pp
4.0pp
-3.0%
-1.1%
0.2%
7.4%
8.7% 10.2%
-3.2%
6.7%
4.6% 13.0%
-7.7%
3.4%
nm
nm
nm
nm
-7.7%
3.4%
2021E
1.4%
2.1%
-12.1%
-5.0%
0.5%
-22.9%
1.9%
2.1%
-12.1%
-5.0%
0.5%
nm
-0.3%
2.1%
-12.1%
nm
0.5%
nm
-0.4pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
nm
0.0pp
0.0pp
-5.4%
0.3%
nm
-1.9%
6.1%
-5.6%
nm
nm
-5.6%
24
MCP - Key performance
indicators
%
2008
Revenues YoY
29.2
EBITDA Margin
18.3
7.3
11.1
TV
Revenues YoY
5.1
EBITDA Margin
26.6
6.8
19.8
Audiovisual
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
9.5
7.5
2.0
Entertainment
Revenues YoY
60.9
EBITDA Margin
4.7
0.4
4.3
Radio
Revenues YoY
1.2
EBITDA Margin
-11.7
10.2
EBITDA-Capex as % of revenues -21.9
Others
Revenues YoY
-228.7
EBITDA Margin
3.7
-3.9
7.5
08 February
2013
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
-6.8
18.7
2.7
16.0
-7.0
15.9
4.4
11.4
-9.9
12.8
3.8
9.0
-18.8
20.5
2.5
18.0
-3.7
17.1
2.4
14.7
5.7
19.5
2.5
17.1
4.2
20.3
2.5
17.8
3.9
21.0
2.4
18.6
-0.5
20.0
2.5
17.6
2.2
19.3
2.4
16.9
0.6
19.1
2.4
16.7
0.7
19.1
2.5
16.6
-4.5
19.8
2.5
17.3
-3.7%
0.1pp
-0.1pp
0.2pp
0.4%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
-7.0
27.9
2.3
25.6
1.3
28.5
2.9
25.6
-4.5
22.8
1.3
21.6
-6.2
23.5
1.4
22.1
-3.4
20.0
1.4
18.6
5.1
22.0
1.5
20.5
3.5
23.0
1.5
21.5
3.9
24.0
1.5
22.5
-1.6
23.0
1.5
21.5
2.0
22.0
1.5
20.5
-0.1
22.0
1.5
20.5
0.0
22.0
1.5
20.5
-6.8
22.0
1.5
20.5
-0.4%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
-0.6%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
13.7
11.4
1.4
9.9
-13.0
9.2
4.4
4.8
3.2
-6.1
7.2
-13.3
-43.7
6.0
3.5
2.5
-9.0
5.0
3.3
1.7
-0.4
9.0
3.3
5.7
3.4
9.5
3.3
6.2
3.0
9.5
3.3
6.2
2.5
9.5
3.3
6.2
1.4
10.0
3.3
6.7
2.0
10.0
3.3
6.7
2.0
10.0
3.3
6.7
2.0
10.0
3.3
6.7
-11.3%
nm
-0.2pp
nm
2.7%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
-27.0
-24.9
0.3
-25.2
-37.9
-45.9
1.6
-47.4
-32.7
-10.7
0.0
-10.7
-54.3
5.0
0.0
5.0
-7.9
5.0
0.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.5
4.5
4.0
5.0
0.5
4.5
3.0
5.0
0.5
4.5
3.0
5.0
0.5
4.5
3.0
6.0
0.5
5.5
3.0
7.0
0.5
6.5
3.0
7.5
0.5
7.0
3.0
8.0
0.5
7.5
-17.7%
nm
1.3pp
nm
3.6%
0.1pp
0.0pp
0.1pp
-4.3
2.1
9.7
-7.6
3.0
-17.8
7.1
-24.9
4.5
15.4
3.3
12.2
-8.5
14.5
4.0
10.5
4.1
17.0
4.0
13.0
4.5
16.0
4.0
12.0
4.3
15.0
4.0
11.0
1.6
14.0
4.0
10.0
-0.9
13.0
4.0
9.0
1.5
12.0
4.0
8.0
1.5
10.0
4.0
6.0
1.5
10.0
4.0
6.0
-1.0
10.0
4.0
6.0
0.9%
0.0pp
0.1pp
0.0pp
0.8%
-0.1pp
0.0pp
-0.1pp
44.1
-2.2
-1.6
-0.7
-14.6
11.2
-3.1
14.4
5.1
5.8
-0.8
6.6
-12.8
-4.5
-0.8
-3.7
-10.3
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
-1.0
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
0.5
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
0.5
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
-0.2
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
0.3
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
0.1
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
0.1
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
0.0
-9.0
-0.8
-8.2
-6.1%
nm
0.0pp
nm
0.2%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
CAGR
11-15E
CAGR
15-21E
MCP - Key performance
indicators (before)
%
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
TV
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Audiovisual
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Entertainment
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Radio
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Others
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
29.2
18.3
7.3
11.1
-6.8
18.7
2.7
16.0
-7.0
15.9
4.4
11.4
-9.9
12.8
3.8
9.0
-20.2
18.6
2.6
16.0
-7.7
18.2
2.6
15.5
3.7
20.1
2.7
17.4
3.2
20.8
2.7
18.1
2.6
21.4
2.7
18.7
1.9
20.6
2.7
17.9
2.3
19.9
2.7
17.2
1.4
19.7
2.7
17.0
1.1
19.6
2.7
17.0
0.3
20.2
2.7
17.5
-5.8%
0.1pp
-0.1pp
0.2pp
1.9%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
5.1
26.6
6.8
19.8
-7.0
27.9
2.3
25.6
1.3
28.5
2.9
25.6
-4.5
22.8
1.3
21.6
-6.5
21.0
1.4
19.6
-10.0
20.0
1.4
18.6
2.6
22.0
1.5
20.5
2.0
23.0
1.5
21.5
2.0
24.0
1.5
22.5
1.6
23.0
1.5
21.5
2.0
22.0
1.5
20.5
0.8
22.0
1.5
20.5
0.3
22.0
1.5
20.5
-0.4
22.0
1.5
20.5
-3.1%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
1.2%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
9.5
7.5
2.0
13.7
11.4
1.4
9.9
-13.0
9.2
4.4
4.8
3.2
-6.1
7.2
-13.3
-42.1
5.5
3.5
2.0
-1.6
7.0
3.3
3.7
1.8
9.0
3.3
5.7
3.4
9.5
3.3
6.2
3.0
9.5
3.3
6.2
2.5
9.5
3.3
6.2
1.4
10.0
3.3
6.7
2.0
10.0
3.3
6.7
2.0
10.0
3.3
6.7
2.0
10.0
3.3
6.7
-8.4%
nm
-0.2pp
nm
2.7%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
60.9
4.7
0.4
4.3
-27.0
-24.9
0.3
-25.2
-37.9
-45.9
1.6
-47.4
-32.7
-10.7
0.0
-10.7
-56.4
4.0
0.0
4.0
2.3
4.0
0.0
4.0
4.5
4.0
0.5
3.5
3.8
4.0
0.5
3.5
3.0
4.0
0.5
3.5
3.0
5.0
0.5
4.5
3.0
6.0
0.5
5.5
3.0
7.0
0.5
6.5
3.0
7.5
0.5
7.0
3.0
8.0
0.5
7.5
-16.6%
nm
1.3pp
nm
3.6%
0.1pp
0.0pp
0.1pp
1.2
-11.7
10.2
-21.9
-4.3
2.1
9.7
-7.6
3.0
-17.8
7.1
-24.9
4.5
15.4
3.3
12.2
-4.2
16.0
4.0
12.0
-1.0
17.0
4.0
13.0
4.5
16.0
4.0
12.0
4.3
15.0
4.0
11.0
1.6
14.0
4.0
10.0
-0.9
13.0
4.0
9.0
1.5
12.0
4.0
8.0
1.5
10.0
4.0
6.0
1.5
10.0
4.0
6.0
-1.0
10.0
4.0
6.0
0.8%
0.0pp
0.1pp
0.0pp
0.8%
-0.1pp
0.0pp
-0.1pp
-228.7
3.7
-3.9
7.5
44.1
-2.2
-1.6
-0.7
-14.6
11.2
-3.1
14.4
5.1
5.8
-0.8
6.6
-0.1
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
-1.3
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
0.4
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
0.5
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
0.4
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
0.4
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
0.4
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
0.3
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
0.3
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
0.3
-5.0
-0.8
-4.2
-0.1%
nm
0.0pp
nm
0.4%
0.0pp
0.0pp
0.0pp
25
MCP –
Sum-of-the-parts
€ million
Television
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other1
Total
Adjusted Net Debt YE12*
Dividends
Equity Value
Number of shares
Price Target YE13 (€/share)
08 February
EV
Method
Weight
270.1
25.0
2.4
8.5
-10.2
295.8
DCF
DCF
DCF
DCF
DCF
91%
8%
1%
3%
-3%
100%
27.2
-5.6
-0.7
-0.3
-0.9
19.6
Pct
Change
11%
-18%
-22%
-4%
10%
7%
22.8
12%
0.3
14%
Implied Multiple Previous Change
EV/EBITDA 13 9.8x
EV/EBITDA 13 10.8x
EV/EBITDA 13 9.6x
EV/EBITDA 13 3.6x
243.0
30.6
3.0
8.8
-9.3
276.1
86.6
6.9
182.7
84.5
2.15
EV/EBITDA 13 9.9x
82.2
8.2
205.4
84.5
2.45
2013
*not included loans to Prisa
MCP -DCF –
TV
€ million
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
EBIT
(+) Non-Cash Items
(-) Taxes on EBIT
Discount Factor
Enterprise Value
39.1
6.1
-10.4
-4.7
10.3
40.5
28.6
6.0
-7.6
-1.9
-12.9
12.2
Revenues Growth
28.0
5.4
-7.4
-2.0
10.2
34.2
24.7
2.7
-6.6
-1.9
4.2
23.2
1.00
135.8
134.4
270.1
28.9
2.8
-7.7
-2.2
-0.4
21.4
0.88
32.5
1.8
-8.6
-2.2
-0.6
22.9
0.77
35.3
1.9
-9.4
-2.3
-0.6
24.9
0.69
33.3
1.8
-8.8
-2.3
0.2
24.2
0.62
32.4
1.9
-8.6
-2.3
0.6
23.9
0.56
32.3
1.9
-8.6
-2.3
0.0
23.3
0.50
32.3
1.9
-8.6
-2.3
0.0
23.3
0.45
30.1
1.7
-8.0
-2.2
-2.0
19.7
0.41
1.3%
-4.5%
-6.2%
-3.4%
5.1%
3.5%
3.9%
-1.6%
2.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
-6.8%
25.5%
8.0%
24.1%
16.9%
14.9%
15.3%
16.1%
15.9%
15.4%
15.0%
15.0%
13.6%
EBITDA Margin
28.5%
22.8%
23.5%
20.0%
22.0%
23.0%
24.0%
23.0%
22.0%
22.0%
22.0%
22.0%
Capex to Sales
2.9%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
CAGR
11-15E
3.3%
-26.2%
3.3%
3.7%
-54.1%
17.1%
CAGR
15-21E
-1.3%
-0.5%
-1.3%
-0.5%
22.9%
-2.4%
-0.7%
-0.4%
MCP - DCF
- Audiovisual
€ million
EBIT
(+) Non-Cash Items
(-) Taxes on EBIT
Discount Factor
Enterprise Value
Revenues Growth
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
5.5
3.0
-1.4
-4.1
5.9
8.9
-8.1
3.1
2.1
-5.9
-6.9
-15.6
-0.7
3.8
0.2
-1.8
3.7
5.2
0.2
2.1
-0.1
-1.5
1.4
2.2
1.00
12.9
12.1
25.0
3.6
1.2
-0.9
-1.7
-0.2
2.0
0.77
3.7
1.2
-1.0
-1.7
-0.2
2.0
0.69
3.9
1.2
-1.0
-1.7
0.1
2.3
0.62
4.3
1.1
-1.1
-1.8
0.2
2.7
0.56
4.4
1.1
-1.2
-1.8
0.0
2.5
0.50
4.7
0.9
-1.2
-1.9
0.0
2.5
0.45
4.8
0.9
-1.3
-1.9
-0.8
1.8
0.41
-15.0%
-11.7%
-36.5%
-10.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
9.7%
-19.2%
10.1%
4.7%
3.9%
3.9%
4.4%
5.0%
4.6%
4.5%
3.1%
EBITDA Margin
9.2%
-6.1%
6.0%
5.0%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
Capex to Sales
4.4%
7.2%
3.5%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
nm
5.2%
-21.4% -4.4%
nm
5.2%
-27.1%
2.2%
-59.1% 26.2%
nm -1.7%
26
MCP - DCF
- Entertainment
€ million
EBIT
(+) Non-Cash Items
(-) Taxes on EBIT
Discount Factor
Enterprise Value
2010
08 February
2011 2012E 2013E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
-8.2
0.2
2.2
-0.3
1.1
-5.0
-1.4
0.2
0.4
-0.1
-1.0
-1.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
1.00
1.3
1.0
2.4
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.77
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.69
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.62
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.56
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.50
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.45
0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.41
Revenues Growth
-37.9%
-32.7%
-54.3%
-7.9%
-28.6%
-16.4%
10.3%
6.3%
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
3.3%
3.7%
5.0%
4.7%
5.1%
2.3%
EBITDA Margin
-45.9%
-10.7%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
Capex to Sales
1.6%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
2013
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
nm 12.3%
-41.0%
0.1%
nm 12.3%
-30.8%
3.0%
-62.1% 46.3%
nm
-0.8%
MCP - DCF
- Radio
€ million
2010
EBIT
(+) Non-Cash Items
(-) Taxes on EBIT
Discount Factor
Enterprise Value
2011 2012E 2013E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
-4.8
2.3
1.3
-1.0
0.9
-1.3
0.3
2.0
-0.1
-0.5
-1.2
0.5
0.3
1.7
-0.1
-0.5
1.0
2.3
1.6
0.7
-0.4
-0.6
0.4
1.8
1.00
6.1
2.4
8.5
Revenues Growth
3.0%
4.5%
-8.5%
4.1%
-9.4%
3.2%
17.2%
13.0%
EBITDA Margin
-17.8%
15.4%
14.5%
17.0%
Capex to Sales
7.1%
3.3%
4.0%
4.0%
1.8
0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
1.1
0.77
1.9
0.2
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1
1.0
0.69
1.8
0.2
-0.5
-0.6
0.0
0.9
0.62
1.7
0.2
-0.4
-0.6
0.1
0.8
0.56
1.4
0.1
-0.4
-0.6
0.0
0.6
0.50
1.5
0.1
-0.4
-0.6
0.0
0.6
0.45
1.4
0.1
-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
0.3
0.41
4.3%
1.6%
-0.9%
1.5%
7.5%
6.3%
6.0%
5.5%
1.5%
1.5%
-1.0%
3.5%
3.5%
2.2%
15.0%
14.0%
13.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
12.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
62%
-3%
-30% -20%
62%
-3%
6%
1%
-53%
24%
25.0% -17.9%
0.9%
1.1%
MCP - DCF
- Others
€ million
EBIT
(+) Non-Cash Items
(-) Taxes on EBIT
Discount Factor
Enterprise Value
2010
-4.3
0.7
1.2
-1.0
-2.1
-5.7
2011 2012E 2013E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
-2.5
0.5
0.7
-0.3
2.9
1.3
-1.8
0.5
0.5
-0.3
-2.2
-3.3
-1.9
-0.5
0.5
-0.2
-0.8
-3.0
1.00
-10.8
0.6
-10.2
-3.6
1.2
1.0
-0.2
0.1
-1.6
0.77
-3.5
1.1
0.9
-0.2
0.0
-1.7
0.69
-3.4
1.0
0.9
-0.2
0.0
-1.8
0.62
-3.4
1.0
0.9
-0.2
-0.1
-1.8
0.56
-3.6
1.2
0.9
-0.2
0.0
-1.7
0.50
-3.8
1.4
1.0
-0.2
0.0
-1.6
0.45
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.41
Revenues Growth
-14.6%
5.1%
-12.8%
-10.3%
0.5%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
17.3%
-3.8%
10.9%
11.0%
5.8%
6.4%
6.7%
6.8%
6.3%
6.1%
-0.3%
EBITDA Margin
11.2%
5.8%
-4.5%
-9.0%
-9.0%
-9.0%
-9.0%
-9.0%
-9.0%
-9.0%
-9.0%
Capex to Sales
-3.1%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.8%
CAGR
11-15E
9.9%
24.5%
9.9%
-6.1%
-56.7%
nm
CAGR
15-21E
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
0.1%
20.3%
#NUM!
-200.5%
-203.0%
27
MCP - Discount
rates assumptions
Risk-Free Rate
Market Premium
Unlevered Beta
Levered Beta
Cost of Equity*
Cost of Debt **
Corporate Tax Rate
Leverage
WACC
LT Inflation
WACC-g
08 February
New Assumptions
2013-2015
2016-2021
Terminal value
2.50%
2.50%
2.50%
7.50%
4.50%
1.50%
5.00%
5.00%
5.00%
0.90
0.90
0.95
1.17
1.17
1.24
17.17%
13.65%
10.55%
9.00%
7.50%
6.00%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
6.39%
5.32%
4.26%
30%
30%
30%
13.94%
11.15%
8.67%
2.52%
1.00%
1.50%
6.15%
2013
2012-2015
2016-2021
Terminal value
2.50%
2.50%
2.50%
10.50%
6.00%
1.50%
5.00%
5.00%
5.00%
0.90
0.90
0.95
1.17
1.17
1.24
20.69%
15.41%
10.55%
9.00%
7.50%
6.00%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
6.39%
5.32%
4.26%
30%
30%
30%
16.40%
12.39%
8.67%
2.52%
1.00%
1.50%
6.15%
5%.
MCP - TV –
operating performance
€ million
2010
2011
2012E 2013E 2015E
2016E
2017E 2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
Revenues
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
YoY
Revenues
Advertising
Variation of Production
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
158.6
134.9
23.7
113.4
45.2
141.2
121.4
19.8
116.8
34.6
142.0
96.0
46.0
108.6
33.4
149.2
94.7
54.4
114.8
34.3
155.0
96.7
58.3
117.8
37.2
152.6
90.4
62.1
117.5
35.1
155.6
89.9
65.7
121.4
34.2
155.4
86.5
68.9
121.2
34.2
155.4
84.1
71.3
121.2
34.2
144.9
80.7
64.2
113.0
31.9
-10.9%
0.5% -16.9% 21.4%
-10.0% -20.9% -6.3% 1.4%
nm
nm
nm
nm
-16.4% 132.4% -39.1% 85.2%
3.1% -7.0% 1.0% 2.2%
-23.5% -3.5% -17.8% 8.2%
24.5% 23.5% 23.2% 23.0%
3.9%
2.1%
nm
7.0%
2.6%
8.4%
24.0%
-1.6%
-6.5%
nm
6.6%
-0.3%
-5.7%
23.0%
2.0%
-0.6%
nm
5.7%
3.3%
-2.4%
22.0%
-0.1%
-3.8%
nm
4.9%
-0.1%
-0.1%
22.0%
0.0% -6.8%
-2.8% -4.0%
nm
nm
3.5% -10.0%
0.0% -6.8%
0.0% -6.8%
22.0% 22.0%
2016E 2017E
2018E
2019E 2020E
1.3%
-0.2%
nm
10.7%
0.5%
3.3%
28.5%
118.0
90.0
28.0
109.7
27.4
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
1.4% -0.5%
-6.0% -2.6%
28.8%
2.8%
-0.4% -0.3%
-0.2% -1.2%
MCP - Audiovisual
– operating performance
€ million
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2015E
2021E
Revenues
Production
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
YoY
Revenues
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
91.7
86.2
5.5
83.3
8.4
81.0
75.3
5.7
85.9
-4.9
51.4
47.8
3.6
48.3
3.1
46.3
43.0
3.2
44.0
2.3
50.1
46.6
3.5
45.3
4.8
51.6
47.9
3.6
46.7
4.9
52.8
49.1
3.7
47.8
5.0
53.9
50.1
3.8
48.5
5.4
55.0
51.1
3.8
49.5
5.5
56.1
52.2
3.9
50.5
5.6
57.2
53.2
4.0
51.5
5.7
-15.0% -11.7% -36.5%
-12.7% -12.6% -36.5%
-39.9% 3.0% -36.5%
-13.0% 3.2% -43.7%
-31.1% -158.5% -162.4%
9.2% -6.1% 6.0%
-10.0%
-10.0%
-10.0%
-9.0%
-25.0%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.4%
9.8%
9.5%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
9.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
9.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.4%
7.4%
10.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
10.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
10.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
10.0%
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
-11.3%
2.2%
-11.3%
2.2%
-11.3%
2.2%
-14.8%
2.2%
nm
3.1%
28
MCP - Entertainment
08 February
€ million
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Revenues
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
YoY
Revenues
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
17.5
17.5
25.5
-8.0
11.8
11.8
13.0
-1.3
-37.9%
-37.9%
-27.4%
14.4%
-45.9%
2020E 2021E
5.4
5.4
5.1
0.3
5.0
5.0
4.7
0.2
5.4
5.4
5.1
0.3
5.6
5.6
5.3
0.3
5.7
5.7
5.5
0.3
5.9
5.9
5.6
0.4
6.1
6.1
5.7
0.4
6.3
6.3
5.8
0.5
6.5
6.5
5.9
0.5
-32.7% -54.3%
-32.7% -54.3%
-48.9% -60.8%
nm
nm
-10.7%
5.0%
-7.9%
-7.9%
-7.9%
-7.9%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
5.0%
3.0%
3.0%
1.9%
23.6%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
1.9%
20.2%
7.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.4%
10.4%
7.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.4%
9.9%
8.0%
2013
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
-17.7%
3.0%
-17.7%
3.0%
-20.7%
2.5%
nm 11.4%
MCP - Radio
€ million
2010
2011
Revenues
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
YoY
Revenues
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
13.9
12.7
1.1
16.3
-2.5
14.5
13.3
1.2
12.3
2.2
2012E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
13.3
12.5
0.8
11.3
1.9
15.1
14.2
0.9
12.8
2.3
15.3
14.4
0.9
13.1
2.1
15.1
14.2
0.9
13.2
2.0
3.0%
4.5% -8.5%
2.3%
4.2% -6.1%
11.6%
7.8% -35.0%
24.0% -25.0% -7.5%
nm
nm -14.1%
-17.8% 15.4% 14.5%
4.3%
4.3%
3.0%
5.5%
-2.3%
15.0%
1.6%
1.5%
3.0%
2.8%
-5.2%
14.0%
-0.9%
-1.1%
2.0%
0.2%
-8.0%
13.0%
15.4
14.5
0.9
13.5
1.8
15.6
14.7
0.9
14.1
1.6
15.9
14.9
1.0
14.3
1.6
15.7
14.7
1.0
14.1
1.6
1.5%
1.5%
1.5% 1.5%
2.0% 2.0%
2.7%
3.8%
-6.3% -15.4%
12.0% 10.0%
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
10.0%
-1.0%
-1.2%
2.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
10.0%
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
0.9%
0.7%
1.7%
0.6%
-8.2%
2.2%
1.1%
1.7%
0.2% -5.9%
MCP - Other
€ million
2010
2011 2012E
Revenues
EBITDA
YoY
Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
-32.6
-3.7
-34.3
-2.0
-14.6%
nm
11.2%
-29.9
-1.3
2013E 2015E
2016E 2017E 2018E
2019E 2020E
2021E
-26.9
-2.4
-26.7
-2.4
-26.9
-2.4
-26.8
-2.4
-26.9
-2.4
-26.9
-2.4
-26.9
-2.4
-26.9
-2.4
5.1% -12.8% -10.3%
nm -32.2% 79.4%
5.8% 4.5%
9.0%
0.5%
0.5%
9.0%
0.5%
0.5%
9.0%
-0.2%
nm
9.0%
0.3%
nm
9.0%
0.1%
nm
9.0%
0.1%
0.1%
9.0%
0.0%
0.0%
9.0%
CAGR
11-15E
-6.1%
4.9%
CAGR
15-21E
0.1%
0.1%
29
–
MCP –FY12
Earnings
€ million
Operating Revenues
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
Cash Costs
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
EBITDA
Margin
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
D&A
EBIT
Net Financials
EBT
Taxes
EBM
Minority Interests
Net Income
FY11 FY12E
224.4
151.4
81.0
11.8
14.5
-34.3
-195.7
-116.8
-85.9
-13.0
-12.3
32.3
28.6
12.8%
34.6
-4.9
-1.3
2.2
-2.0
-11.8
16.8
-6.5
10.4
-8.4
2.0
-0.8
1.2
182.1
142.0
51.4
5.4
13.3
-29.9
-144.8
-108.6
-48.3
-5.1
-11.3
28.6
37.3
20.5%
33.4
3.1
0.3
1.9
-1.3
-11.4
25.9
-9.0
16.9
-6.7
10.2
0.0
10.2
08 February
YoYE
4Q11
-19%
-6%
-37%
-54%
-8%
-13%
-26%
-7%
-44%
-61%
-7%
-12%
30%
57.1
41.2
50.0 -12%
21%
41.5
31.8
40.9
-1%
29%
19.1
11.2
11.3 -41%
1%
1.6
1.7
1.4 -10% -17%
3.5
3.0
3.3
-6%
11%
-8.6
-6.5
-7.0 -19%
7%
-55.7 -34.1 -36.3 -35%
6%
-29.9 -24.1 -27.9
-6%
16%
-28.4 -11.3 -11.2 -61%
-1%
-2.3
-1.8
-1.2 -45% -31%
-3.0
-2.8
-2.7
-8%
-2%
7.8
5.9
6.8 -13%
16%
1.4
7.1
13.7
nm
93%
2.5% 17.1% 27.3% 24.8pp 10.2pp
11.6
7.7
13.0 12%
68%
-9.3
-0.1
0.1
nm
nm
-0.7
-0.1
0.2
nm
nm
0.5
0.2
0.6
5%
nm
-0.8
-0.7
-0.2 -77% -73%
-3.0
-2.9
-2.8
-6%
-3%
-1.6
4.2
10.8
nm
nm
-2.0
-2.3
-2.0
2% -12%
-3.6
1.8
8.8
nm
nm
-4.2
-0.4
-4.0
-4%
nm
-7.8
1.4
4.7
nm
nm
0.6
0.0
0.0
nm #DIV/0!
-7.2
1.4
4.7
nm
nm
7.7pp
-4%
nm
nm
-14%
-32%
-3%
54%
39%
63%
-21%
nm
nm
nm
2013
3Q12 4Q12E YoYE QoQE
–
MCP –FY12
operating performance
breakdown
€ million
FY11 FY12E
YoYE
4Q11
3Q12 4Q12E
YoYE
QoQE
182.1
111.4
70.7
-144.8
37.3
-19%
-19%
-18%
-26%
30%
57.1
37.5
19.6
-55.7
1.4
41.2
23.0
18.2
-34.1
7.1
50.0
30.7
19.3
-36.3
13.7
-12%
-18%
-1%
-35%
869%
21%
33%
6%
6%
93%
12.8%
20.5%
7.7pp
2.5%
17.1%
27.3%
24.8pp
10.2pp
151.4
121.4
30.0
-116.8
34.6
142.0
96.0
46.0
-108.6
33.4
-6%
-21%
53%
-7%
-4%
41.5
33.1
8.3
-29.9
11.6
31.8
19.6
12.2
-24.1
7.7
40.9
26.8
14.1
-27.9
13.0
-1%
-19%
69%
-6%
12%
29%
37%
15%
16%
68%
22.8%
23.5%
0.7pp
28.0%
24.3%
31.7%
3.7pp
7.4pp
81.0
0.0
81.0
-85.9
-4.9
51.4
0.0
51.4
-48.3
3.1
-37%
nm
-37%
-44%
-162%
19.1
0.0
19.1
-28.4
-9.3
11.2
0.0
11.2
-11.3
-0.1
11.3
0.0
11.3
-11.2
0.1
-41%
nm
-41%
-61%
-101%
1%
nm
1%
-1%
-248%
-6.1%
6.0%
12.1pp
-48.6%
-0.6%
0.9%
49.5pp
1.5pp
11.8
0.0
4.3
7.5
0.0
-13.0
-1.3
5.4
0.0
4.8
0.6
0.0
-5.1
0.3
-54%
nm
12%
-92%
nm
-61%
-121%
1.6
0.0
1.2
0.4
0.0
-2.3
-0.7
1.7
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-0.1
1.4
0.0
1.4
0.0
0.0
-1.2
0.2
-10%
nm
21%
-100%
nm
-45%
-125%
-17%
nm
-16%
-100%
nm
-31%
-262%
-10.7%
5.0%
15.7pp
-43.7%
-6.3%
12.2%
55.9pp
18.5pp
14.5
13.3
1.2
-12.3
2.2
13.3
12.5
0.8
-11.3
1.9
-8%
-6%
-35%
-7%
-14%
3.5
3.4
0.2
-3.0
0.5
3.0
2.8
0.2
-2.8
0.2
3.3
3.1
0.2
-2.7
0.6
-6%
-7%
5%
-8%
5%
11%
13%
-13%
-2%
221%
15.4%
14.5%
-0.9pp
15.5%
6.0%
17.4%
1.9pp
11.3pp
-34.3
3.5
-37.8
32.3
-2.0
-29.9
2.9
-32.8
28.6
-1.3
-13%
-16%
-13%
-12%
-32%
-8.6
1.0
-9.6
7.8
-0.8
-6.5
0.7
-7.2
5.9
-0.7
-7.0
0.7
-7.7
6.8
-0.2
-19%
-28%
-20%
-13%
-77%
7%
6%
7%
16%
-73%
5.8%
4.5%
-1.3pp
9.1%
10.2%
2.6%
-6.5pp
-7.7pp
Consolidated Revenues 224.4
Advertising
138.2
Other
86.2
Cash Costs
-195.7
EBITDA
28.6
Margin
TV
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Audiovisual
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Entertainment
Advertising
Music & Event produc.
Cinema & Video
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Radio
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Other
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
30
MCP – P&L
– Quarterly evolution
08 February
€ million
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12E 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E
Operating Revenues
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
Cash Costs
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
EBITDA
TV
Audiovisual
Entertainment
Radio
Other
D&A
EBIT
Net Financials
EBT
Taxes
Discontinued operations
EBM
Minority Interests
Net Income
40.0
29.5
15.3
1.1
3.0
-8.8
-35.8
-27.0
-13.2
-1.3
-2.9
8.6
4.2
2.4
2.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-2.8
1.4
-2.6
-1.2
0.2
0.0
-1.0
0.0
-1.0
50.9
39.8
13.5
1.2
4.0
-7.6
-38.5
-29.6
-12.6
-0.8
-2.9
7.4
12.4
10.2
1.0
0.4
1.0
-0.2
-2.9
9.5
-2.0
7.5
-2.5
0.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
41.2
31.8
11.2
1.7
3.0
-6.5
-34.1
-24.1
-11.3
-1.8
-2.8
5.9
7.1
7.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.7
-2.9
4.2
-2.3
1.8
-0.4
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.4
50.0
40.9
11.3
1.4
3.3
-7.0
-36.3
-27.9
-11.2
-1.2
-2.7
6.8
13.7
13.0
0.1
0.2
0.6
-0.2
-2.8
10.8
-2.0
8.8
-4.0
0.0
4.7
0.0
4.7
37.3
28.9
11.0
0.8
3.1
-6.6
-35.9
-27.3
-10.5
-1.2
-2.9
6.0
1.4
1.6
0.5
-0.3
0.2
-0.6
-1.2
0.1
-1.7
-1.5
0.3
0.0
-1.2
0.0
-1.2
49.2
38.3
13.0
0.9
4.1
-7.2
-39.6
-29.9
-12.0
-0.7
-3.0
6.0
9.6
8.4
1.0
0.2
1.2
-1.2
-1.3
8.3
-1.7
6.7
-2.2
0.0
4.5
0.0
4.5
40.1
30.9
11.0
1.7
3.1
-6.7
-33.4
-24.3
-10.5
-1.7
-2.8
5.9
6.6
6.5
0.5
0.1
0.3
-0.8
-1.3
5.3
-1.7
3.7
-0.9
0.0
2.8
0.0
2.8
48.8
39.1
11.3
1.5
3.5
-6.5
-36.5
-28.2
-11.0
-1.1
-2.8
6.6
12.3
10.9
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.1
-1.3
11.0
-2.6
8.4
-4.1
0.0
4.4
0.0
4.4
1Q12
YoY
-25%
-17%
-20%
-69%
-11%
6%
-23%
-11%
-26%
-65%
-11%
3%
-38%
-55%
59%
66%
-24%
nm
-1%
-65%
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
2Q12
YoY
-21%
-5%
-41%
-69%
-4%
-7%
-21%
2%
-39%
-79%
2%
0%
-20%
-22%
-55%
nm
-18%
-72%
-2%
-25%
60%
-34%
-26%
nm
-38%
nm
-36%
3Q12
YoY
-16%
-2%
-43%
-41%
-13%
-29%
-23%
-13%
-40%
-44%
-12%
-33%
45%
71%
nm
-69%
-30%
54%
-4%
nm
-3%
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
4Q12
YoYE
-12%
-1%
-41%
-10%
-6%
-19%
-35%
-6%
-61%
-45%
-8%
-13%
nm
12%
nm
nm
5%
-77%
-6%
nm
2%
nm
-4%
nm
nm
nm
nm
1Q13
YoYE
-7%
-2%
-28%
-25%
4%
-26%
0%
1%
-21%
-8%
1%
-30%
-67%
-33%
-76%
nm
75%
nm
-56%
-90%
-36%
27%
27%
nm
27%
#####
27%
2Q13
YoYE
-3%
-4%
-4%
-20%
4%
-6%
3%
1%
-5%
-8%
1%
-18%
-22%
-18%
4%
-46%
13%
nm
-55%
-12%
-19%
-10%
-10%
nm
-10%
#####
-10%
3Q13
YoYE
-3%
-3%
-2%
2%
4%
2%
-2%
1%
-7%
-8%
1%
1%
-6%
-16%
nm
nm
51%
12%
-55%
28%
-29%
99%
99%
nm
99%
#####
99%
2013
4Q13
YoYE
-2%
-4%
0%
3%
4%
-7%
1%
1%
-2%
-8%
1%
-3%
-10%
-16%
nm
81%
19%
nm
-56%
2%
27%
-4%
2%
nm
-8%
#####
-8%
MCP – Operating
performance
- breakdown by business area
€ million
Consolidated Revenues
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
TV
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Audiovisual
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Entertainment
Advertising
Music & Event produc.
Cinema & Video
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Radio
Advertising
Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Other
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12 4Q12E 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E
40.0
25.3
14.7
-35.8
4.2
10.5%
29.5
21.8
7.7
-27.0
2.4
8.3%
15.3
0.0
15.3
-13.2
2.1
13.6%
1.1
0.0
0.8
0.3
0.0
-1.3
-0.2
-13.9%
3.0
2.8
0.2
-2.9
0.1
4.1%
-8.8
0.8
8.6
-0.3
3.1%
50.9
32.4
18.5
-38.5
12.4
24.3%
39.8
27.8
12.0
-29.6
10.2
25.7%
13.5
0.0
13.5
-12.6
1.0
7.1%
1.2
0.0
0.9
0.3
0.0
-0.8
0.4
30.7%
4.0
3.8
0.2
-2.9
1.0
26.3%
-7.6
0.8
7.4
-0.2
3.0%
41.2
23.0
18.2
-34.1
7.1
17.1%
31.8
19.6
12.2
-24.1
7.7
24.3%
11.2
0.0
11.2
-11.3
-0.1
-0.6%
1.7
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-0.1
-6.3%
3.0
2.8
0.2
-2.8
0.2
6.0%
-6.5
0.7
5.9
-0.7
10.2%
50.0
37.3
30.7
24.1
19.3
13.2
-36.3
-35.9
13.7
1.4
27.3%
3.7%
40.9
28.9
26.8
20.4
14.1
8.5
-27.9
-27.3
13.0
1.6
31.7%
5.6%
11.3
11.0
0.0
0.0
11.3
11.0
-11.2
-10.5
0.1
0.5
0.9%
4.5%
1.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
1.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.2
-1.2
0.2
-0.3
12.2% -40.6%
3.3
3.1
3.1
2.9
0.2
0.2
-2.7
-2.9
0.6
0.2
17.4%
6.9%
-7.0
-6.6
0.7
0.8
6.8
6.0
-0.2
-0.6
2.6%
9.3%
49.2
30.8
18.4
-39.6
9.6
19.5%
38.3
26.1
12.2
-29.9
8.4
21.9%
13.0
0.0
13.0
-12.0
1.0
7.7%
0.9
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
-0.7
0.2
20.7%
4.1
3.9
0.2
-3.0
1.2
28.4%
-7.2
0.8
6.0
-1.2
16.1%
40.1
22.0
18.0
-33.4
6.6
16.5%
30.9
18.4
12.5
-24.3
6.5
21.1%
11.0
0.0
11.0
-10.5
0.5
4.5%
1.7
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
-1.7
0.1
4.4%
3.1
2.9
0.2
-2.8
0.3
8.8%
-6.7
0.8
5.9
-0.8
11.3%
48.8
29.2
19.6
-36.5
12.3
25.2%
39.1
25.2
13.9
-28.2
10.9
27.8%
11.3
0.0
11.3
-11.0
0.3
2.8%
1.5
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.0
-1.1
0.3
21.5%
3.5
3.3
0.2
-2.8
0.7
19.8%
-6.5
0.8
6.6
0.1
-1.4%
1Q12
YoY
-25%
-19%
-34%
-23%
-38%
2Q12
YoY
-21%
-19%
-25%
-21%
-20%
3Q12
YoYE
-16%
-22%
-8%
-23%
45%
4Q12
YoYE
-12%
-18%
-1%
-35%
nm
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
YoYE YoYE YoYE YoYE
-7% -3% -3% -2%
-5% -5% -4% -5%
-10% -1% -1%
1%
0%
3% -2%
1%
-67% -22% -6% -10%
-2.2pp
0.2pp
7.2pp 24.8pp -6.8pp -4.8pp -0.6pp -2.1pp
-17% -5% -2%
-22% -21% -23%
-2% 76% 76%
-11%
2% -13%
-55% -22% 71%
-1% -2% -4% -3% -4%
-19% -6% -6% -6% -6%
69% 11%
2%
2% -1%
-6%
1%
1%
1%
1%
12% -33% -18% -16% -16%
-6.9pp -5.4pp 10.3pp
3.7pp -2.6pp -3.8pp -3.1pp -3.9pp
-20% -41% -43% -41%
nm
nm
nm
nm
-20% -41% -43% -41%
-26% -39% -40% -61%
59% -55%
nm
nm
-28%
nm
-28%
-21%
-76%
-4%
nm
-4%
-5%
4%
-2%
nm
-2%
-7%
nm
0%
nm
0%
-2%
nm
6.8pp -2.4pp -5.1pp 49.5pp -9.1pp
0.6pp
5.2pp
1.9pp
-69% -69% -41% -10% -25% -20%
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
6% 13%
7% 21%
3%
3%
-89% -91% -99%
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
-65% -79% -44% -45% -8% -8%
66%
nm -69%
nm
nm -46%
-11.3pp 34.2pp
2%
3%
nm
nm
3%
3%
nm #####
nm
nm
-8% -8%
nm 81%
5.7pp 55.9pp -26.7pp -10.0pp 10.7pp
9.3pp
-11% -4% -13%
0% -3% -14%
-67% -21%
0%
-11%
2% -12%
-24% -18% -30%
-6%
-7%
5%
-8%
5%
4%
4%
3%
1%
75%
4%
4%
3%
1%
13%
4%
4%
3%
1%
51%
4%
4%
3%
1%
19%
-0.7pp -4.5pp -1.4pp
1.9pp
2.8pp
2.2pp
2.7pp
2.4pp
6% -7% -29% -19% -26% -6%
-6% -12% -16% -28%
0%
2%
3%
0% -33% -13% -30% -18%
nm -72% 54% -77%
nm
nm
2%
22%
1%
12%
-7%
12%
-3%
nm
3.6pp -6.9pp
5.5pp -6.5pp
6.2pp 13.1pp
1.1pp -4.0pp
31
MCP - Balance Sheet
08 February
€ million
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2021E
Assets
Non-current assets
Goodwill
Intangible assets
Tangible assets
Deferred income taxes
Deferred TV rights
Other
Current assets
Trade receivables
Other
Cash & equivalents
Equity
Minority interests
Liabilities
Financial Debt
Trade payables
Deferred acquisitions
Other
406.8
291.9
167.1
20.3
30.6
5.5
66.8
1.5
114.9
53.6
37.7
23.6
125.1
4.0
277.7
111.6
73.2
13.6
79.3
377.4
290.5
157.4
18.7
29.0
5.4
76.4
3.7
86.9
53.3
21.8
11.8
119.9
1.8
255.7
116.6
62.8
0.0
76.4
313.9
235.5
157.4
17.0
23.8
5.4
28.8
3.2
78.5
49.3
20.0
9.1
124.3
0.0
189.6
91.3
42.5
0.0
55.8
302.9
232.8
157.4
16.4
23.6
5.4
27.0
3.1
70.1
43.7
19.4
7.0
126.6
0.0
176.3
80.7
41.8
0.0
53.8
305.6
233.5
157.4
15.9
23.5
5.4
28.0
3.2
72.1
42.1
22.7
7.4
133.3
0.0
172.3
74.4
41.1
0.0
56.8
309.3
233.9
157.4
15.6
23.9
5.4
28.4
3.3
75.4
44.5
23.2
7.7
138.8
0.0
170.6
70.0
41.5
0.0
59.1
316.0
237.0
157.4
16.1
29.6
5.4
24.2
4.3
79.0
47.4
23.8
7.9
146.0
0.0
170.0
72.7
37.0
0.0
60.4
CAGR
11-15E
-4.9%
-5.3%
0.0%
-4.4%
-4.7%
0.0%
-21.9%
-2.8%
-3.5%
-4.4%
1.6%
-10.1%
3.7%
nm
-9.6%
-12.0%
-9.8%
nm
-6.2%
2013
CAGR
15-21E
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0.6%
3.6%
0.0%
-2.6%
4.7%
0.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.4%
0.8%
nm
-0.1%
0.6%
-1.9%
nm
0.4%
MCP - Income
statement
€ million
Operating Revenues
Cash Costs
EBITDA
EBIT
Net Financials
EBT
Taxes
EBM
Minority Interests
Net Income
Net Earnings
EPS (€)
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2021E
249.0
-209.5
39.5
-12.2
27.3
-5.1
22.2
-8.6
13.6
-1.2
12.4
12.4
0.15
224.4
-195.7
28.6
-11.8
16.8
-6.5
10.4
-8.4
2.0
-0.8
1.2
1.2
0.01
182.1
-144.8
37.3
-11.4
25.9
-9.0
16.9
-6.7
10.2
0.0
10.2
10.2
0.12
175.3
-145.4
29.9
-5.1
24.8
-7.6
17.3
-6.9
10.4
0.0
10.4
10.4
0.12
185.3
-149.1
36.2
-5.0
31.2
-7.1
24.1
-9.0
15.1
0.0
15.1
15.1
0.18
193.0
-153.8
39.2
-4.7
34.4
-6.8
27.6
-10.1
17.5
0.0
17.5
17.5
0.21
197.3
-158.1
39.2
-4.2
35.0
-5.7
29.3
-10.1
19.2
0.0
19.2
19.2
0.23
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
-3.7%
0.4%
-5.9%
0.5%
8.2%
0.0%
-20.4% -2.0%
19.6%
0.2%
1.4% -2.9%
27.7%
1.0%
4.7%
0.0%
72.9%
1.5%
-100.0%
nm
96.9%
1.5%
96.9%
1.5%
96.9%
1.5%
MCP - Cash-flow
statement
€ million
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Dividends paid
41.7
-5.0
-33.4
49.4
-16.9
-5.2
0.0
-4.5
12.0
-6.3
34.8
-4.6
-32.9
38.7
-5.8
20.9
-4.2
-18.8
26.9
-8.2
19.6
-4.6
-14.6
22.9
-8.3
21.5
-4.7
-16.5
28.5
-12.1
2021E
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
20.7
nm -0.6%
-7.9 293.9%
9.0%
-13.1 38.7% -3.7%
12.7 24.2% -12.6%
-17.8 17.9%
6.7%
MCP – Leverage
Indicators
€ million
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2021E
EBITDA
Capex
EBITDA-Capex
Net Debt
39.5
11.0
28.5
22.2
2.9
88.1
2.2
0.7
0.4
13.5
28.6
8.6
20.1
14.3
5.5
104.7
3.7
0.9
0.5
5.2
37.3
4.6
32.7
24.6
5.9
82.2
2.2
0.7
0.4
6.3
29.9
4.2
25.7
17.4
4.5
73.7
2.5
0.6
0.4
6.7
36.2
4.6
31.6
19.6
4.0
67.0
1.9
0.5
0.3
9.0
39.2
4.7
34.4
19.6
3.7
62.3
1.6
0.4
0.3
10.6
39.2
4.9
34.2
15.0
3.6
64.8
1.7
0.4
0.3
10.9
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
8.2%
0.0%
-13.7%
0.7%
14.4% -0.1%
8.2% -4.3%
-9.2% -0.5%
-12.2%
0.7%
-18.8%
0.7%
-15.3% -0.2%
-9.5% -0.1%
19.1%
0.5%
32
08 February
2013
Cofina
We fine-tuned our Cofina`s valuations, based on latest figures, fine-tune in media market estimates and updated
WACC. Our Cofina`s price target was revised upwards to €0.58 from €0.51 (Neutral recommendation, High
Risk). Fine-tune in estimates (€0.05 decrease in price target) reflected an increasing tough scenario in press
(both on Newspapers and Magazines) while changes in WACC had a €0.12 positive effect (following the decline
of the Portuguese Sovereign 10-year Government Bonds, we updated the local sovereign yield to 8% from 10%.
Overall, Cofina`s numbers are being influenced by a recessive macroeconomic context that is strongly felt in
private consumption. Therefore, the advertising investment recorded significant decreases, with the advertisers
postponing and reducing their investment decisions.
We expect Cofina will disclose 4Q12 Earnings on the 1st half of March. Numbers are expected to show declining
margins, penalized by negative trend both in advertising and circulation revenues.
We highlight Cofina’s efficient costs control policy in an adverse scenario, thus we believe Cofina`s EBITDA
margins will keep showing resilience in a very tough scenario. Cofina`s profile is focused on costs side, thus we
expect company will keep showing resilience in margins, even in an increasing adverse scenario. Current press
market is very challenging to 2nd and 3rd players, thus Cofina is benefiting from being market leader in major
press segments. We expect Cofina`s newspapers advertising will decline 12% in 2013 (-17% in 2012) while
magazines advertising will decline 12% (-25% 2012). Newspapers circulation is expected to decline 5% in 2012
(-4% 2013) while magazines are expected to decline 12% (-5% 2013).
Recall Cofina sold in 2011 all stake in Zon Multimedia (which we consider it`s a positive deal), thus 2012
earnings will fully reflect numbers at operating level, removing impact from Zon shares changes. (For further
details, please refer to our Snapshot: Cofina - No longer holds any shares in Zon Multimédia – Neutral Impact”
that was published on August 2th 2011.
New source of revenues?
Cofina wants to charge for on-line access to sites news (negocios.pt,...), reducing dependence on the cycles of
advertising investment, broadening the revenues base. We believe it is a business model difficult to implement
and limited success, since early adopters will have the risk of site reads exiting to free on-line access sites.
Furthermore, in current increasing tough environment, we do not believe Portuguese consumers are ready to
pay for on-line access to sites, which could reduce page viewers (and on-line advertising revenues). It will be an
issue in the next years how to charge for on-line access while keeping page viewers.
We believe it would be easier if a company manages the access to several sites (from several competitors) and
then the consumers would pay the access (a fee / for page) which would be shared between the company which
manages the access to sites and the company which owns the sites. The big question is if the revenues from
paid media contents will offset the lower advertising revenues (via lower page viewers).
33
08 February
2013
Positive news: diversifying portfolio to TV
Media group Cofina is expected to start in March a new cable channel called “Correio da Manhã TV”. New
channel will have a generalist/news profile, in order to leverage current press portfolio (leading daily newspaper
in Portugal “Correio da Manhã”; leading daily sports newspaper in Portugal “Record”; weekly newsmagazine
“Sábado”; weekly society magazine “Flash”; Market leader in the auto segment "Automotor”;...). We highlight
new channel will be exclusive of Portugal Telecom triple play offer “Meo”.
We believe it will be a “low cost” business model (break-even in 2 or 3 years) given declining advertising market
(Cofina will hire 80 new workers). New cable channel it’s potentially positive to Cofina, since it will diversify its
portfolio which is currently limited to Press (newspapers + magazines). According to the CM TV Director, channel
wants to lead cable audience shares (among Portuguese cable news channels) up to 2016 year-end (recall “SIC
Noticias” from Impresa leads Portuguese cable news channels while “TVI 24” from Media Capital ranks 2nd and
“RTP Informação” from state-owned RTP ranks 3rd. Furthermore, it was disclosed programming costs will be
below €10mn this year.
Recall Cofina was one of the major interested in RTP`s privatization, thus new channel can be seen as:
i) diversifying portfolio to TV, since Cofina Media portfolio is limited to press
ii) an alternative to RTP privatization which was postponed “sine die”
iii) increasing know-how in TV sector
Estimating TV business unit valuation (we decided to make this analysis, despite being aware of CM TV low
visibility)
Based on estimated revenues from cable channels (SIC Noticias and TVI24) we expect revenues from Correio
da Manhã TV could reach c€5mn annually, thus using a 1.6x EV/SALES multiple, EV could reach €8mn. The
start up capex is estimated to reach c€3mn (low cost structure), thus Cofina`s SoTP increased by €5mn (€8mn €3mn), therefore Cofina`s valuation rose by €0.05 to €0.51.
Cofina –
Breakdown of changes
in price target
Breakdown of changes in price target
+ € 0.12
0.60
€ 0.58
€ 0.51
- € 0.05
0.40
0.20
0.00
Previous valuation
(YE13)
Change in estimates
Changes in WACC New YE13 price target
34
Cofina –
Estimates revision
€ million
2011
Revenues
126.7
Newspapers
96.7
Magazines
30.0
Holding & Adjustments
0.0
Cash Costs
-106.9
Newspapers
-77.0
Magazines
-30.0
0.0
EBITDA
19.8
Newspapers
19.7
Magazines
0.0
0.0
Margin
15.6%
Newspapers
20.4%
Magazines
0.1%
2012E
115.2
90.2
25.0
0.0
-99.4
-74.2
-25.3
0.0
15.7
16.0
-0.3
0.0
13.7%
17.8%
-1.2%
08 February
2013
New Estimates
Old Estimates
Change
2013E 2015E 2021E 2012E 2013E 2015E 2021E
2012
2013 2015
2021
109.0 113.0 123.0 116.9 111.2 114.3 124.2
-1.5% -2.0% -1.1% -0.9%
85.8 88.6 95.9
90.9 87.1 89.3 96.5
-0.8% -1.5% -0.7% -0.6%
23.3 24.4 27.1
26.0 24.2 25.0 27.7
-3.8% -3.7% -2.3% -2.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
nm
nm
-94.6 -96.9 -106.5 -99.2 -95.5 -97.6 -107.1
0.2% -1.0% -0.8% -0.6%
-71.2 -72.6 -79.8 -74.2 -71.7 -73.1 -80.3
-0.1% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6%
-23.5 -24.2 -26.7 -24.9 -23.8 -24.5 -26.8
1.3% -1.6% -0.9% -0.6%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
nm
nm
14.4 16.1 16.5
17.7 15.7 16.7 17.0 -11.1% -8.1% -3.0% -3.0%
14.6 16.0 16.1
16.7 15.4 16.1 16.2
-3.9% -5.0% -0.9% -0.6%
-0.2
0.2
0.5
1.0
0.3
0.5
0.9 -129.4% -157.0% -68.5% -46.8%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
nm
nm
nm
nm
13.2% 14.3% 13.4% 15.1% 14.1% 14.6% 13.7%
-1.5pp -0.9pp -0.3pp -0.3pp
17.0% 18.0% 16.8% 18.3% 17.7% 18.1% 16.8%
-0.6pp -0.6pp 0.0pp 0.0pp
-0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 3.9% 1.3% 2.1% 3.1%
-5.1pp -2.1pp -1.4pp -1.4pp
CofinaEstimates revision
– revenues
€ million
2011
Revenues
Circulation
Advertising
Ad-ons
Newspapers
Circulation
Advertising
Ad-ons
Magazines
Circulation
Advertising
Ad-ons
126.7
64.7
49.8
12.2
0.0
96.7
48.9
38.2
9.6
30.0
15.8
11.6
2.6
New Estimates
Old Estimates
2012E 2013E 2015E 2021E 2012E 2013E 2015E 2021E
115.2 109.0 113.0 123.0 116.9 111.2 114.3 124.2
60.3 57.7 59.1 63.2
61.1 59.5 60.8 65.0
40.4 35.5 36.9 40.6
42.0 37.9 39.3 43.2
14.5 15.8 17.0 19.2
13.8 13.8 14.1 15.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
90.2 85.8 88.6 95.9
90.9 87.1 89.3 96.5
46.3 44.4 45.3 48.1
46.9 46.0 46.9 49.8
31.7 27.9 28.9 31.6
32.5 29.5 30.6 33.4
12.2 13.4 14.4 16.2
11.5 11.5 11.8 13.3
25.0 23.3 24.4 27.1
26.0 24.2 25.0 27.7
14.0 13.3 13.7 15.0
14.2 13.5 13.9 15.2
8.7
7.7
8.0
9.1
9.5
8.4
8.7
9.8
2.3
2.3
2.6
3.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.7
2012
-1.5%
-1.4%
-3.8%
5.3%
nm
-0.8%
-1.4%
-2.4%
5.8%
-3.8%
-1.7%
-8.5%
2.3%
Change
2013 2015
-2.0% -1.1%
-3.0% -2.9%
-6.2% -6.0%
14.1% 20.2%
nm
nm
-1.5% -0.7%
-3.4% -3.4%
-5.6% -5.6%
16.4% 22.2%
-3.7% -2.3%
-1.7% -1.2%
-8.5% -7.6%
2.3% 10.4%
2021
-0.9%
-2.9%
-6.0%
20.8%
nm
-0.6%
-3.4%
-5.6%
22.2%
-2.0%
-1.2%
-7.6%
13.6%
35
Cofina- Newspapers
€ million
Revenues
Circulation
Advertising
Alternative Marketing
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
YoY
Revenues
Circulation
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
08 February
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E 2014E 2015E
2016E
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
2021E
94.8
42.7
44.0
8.1
-76.5
18.4
19.4%
102.9
44.3
44.8
13.7
-84.7
18.2
17.6%
98.5
46.1
40.1
12.3
-78.0
20.5
20.8%
101.5
48.3
41.0
12.2
-78.9
22.6
22.3%
96.7
48.9
38.2
9.6
-77.0
19.7
20.4%
90.2
46.3
31.7
12.2
-74.2
16.0
17.8%
85.8
44.4
27.9
13.4
-71.2
14.6
17.0%
87.4
44.9
28.4
14.1
-71.8
15.7
17.9%
88.6
45.3
28.9
14.4
-72.6
16.0
18.0%
89.8
45.8
29.3
14.7
-73.8
16.0
17.8%
91.0
46.3
29.7
15.0
-74.9
16.0
17.6%
92.2
46.7
30.2
15.3
-76.1
16.0
17.4%
94.6
47.7
31.1
15.9
-78.6
16.1
17.0%
95.9
48.1
31.6
16.2
-79.8
16.1
16.8%
3.5%
3.9%
9.6%
-22.1%
2.6%
7.4%
0.7pp
8.5% -4.3% 3.0% -4.7% -6.7% -4.9%
3.9%
4.0% 4.8% 1.2% -5.3% -4.0%
1.9% -10.6%
2.3% -6.9% -17.0% -12.0%
68.8% -10.2% -1.3% -21.0% 27.0% 10.0%
10.8% -8.0% 1.1% -2.4% -3.6% -4.1%
-1.1% 13.0% 10.2% -12.7% -18.8% -8.9%
-1.7pp 3.2pp 1.4pp -1.9pp -2.6pp -0.7pp
2.0%
1.0%
2.0%
5.0%
0.8%
7.3%
0.9pp
1.3%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1.2%
2.0%
0.1pp
1.3%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1.6%
0.1%
-0.2pp
1.3%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1.6%
0.1%
-0.2pp
1.3% 1.3%
1.3%
1.0% 1.0%
1.0%
1.5% 1.5%
1.5%
2.0% 2.0%
2.0%
1.6% 1.6%
1.6%
0.1% 0.1%
0.1%
-0.2pp -0.2pp -0.2pp
1.3%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1.6%
0.1%
-0.2pp
93.4
47.2
30.6
15.6
-77.3
16.1
17.2%
2013
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
-2.2% 1.3%
-1.9%
1.0%
-6.7%
1.5%
10.6% 2.0%
-1.4% 1.6%
-5.1% 0.1%
Cofina - Magazines
€ million
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Revenues
Circulation
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
YoY
Revenues
Circulation
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
39.8
16.2
17.9
5.8
-37.6
2.2
5.5%
41.1
17.5
15.4
8.3
-39.0
2.2
5.3%
35.5
17.7
12.6
5.2
-34.7
0.9
2.5%
34.8
16.7
13.9
4.2
-34.3
0.5
1.4%
30.0
15.8
11.6
2.6
-30.0
0.0
0.1%
23.3
13.3
7.7
2.3
-23.5
-0.2
-0.8%
23.8
13.5
7.9
2.4
-23.7
0.1
0.4%
24.4
13.7
8.0
2.6
-24.2
0.2
0.7%
24.9
14.0
8.2
2.8
-24.7
0.2
0.9%
25.3
14.2
8.4
2.8
-25.1
0.3
1.0%
25.8
14.4
8.5
2.9
-25.5
0.3
1.2%
0.3%
3.3% -13.6% -2.0%
0.3%
8.1% 1.4% -5.6%
19.1% -14.0% -17.9% 10.5%
-32.5% 43.0% -37.3% -19.9%
-3.5%
3.5% -11.0% -1.0%
217.2% -0.7% -59.8% -42.5%
3.8pp -0.2pp -2.8pp -1.0pp
-13.9%
-5.6%
-16.8%
-37.4%
-12.7%
-94.6%
-1.4pp
-16.8% -6.8%
2.3%
-11.5% -5.0%
2.0%
-25.0% -12.0% 3.0%
-12.0%
2.0% 2.0%
-15.7% -7.2%
1.1%
nm -39.4% -157.6%
-1.3pp 0.4pp 1.2pp
2.5%
1.5%
2.0%
10.0%
2.3%
58.5%
0.2pp
2.0%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
2.0%
5.0%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
31.3% 21.0%
0.2pp 0.2pp
1.7%
1.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
17.9%
0.2pp
25.0
14.0
8.7
2.3
-25.3
-0.3
-1.2%
2019E 2020E
26.2
14.6
8.7
2.9
-25.9
0.4
1.4%
26.7
14.8
8.9
3.0
-26.3
0.4
1.5%
2021E
27.1
15.0
9.1
3.0
-26.7
0.5
1.7%
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
-5.0%
1.8%
-3.4%
1.5%
-8.7%
2.0%
0.2%
2.5%
-5.2%
1.6%
57.5% 18.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.6%
15.7% 14.0%
0.2pp 0.2pp
Cofina - KPI
%
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Newspapers
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Magazines
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2020E 2021E
-6.9
16.0
0.9
15.1
1.7
17.0
3.1
13.8
-7.1
15.6
1.8
13.8
-9.1
13.7
1.9
11.8
-5.3
13.2
1.9
11.3
2.0
14.2
1.8
12.4
1.6
14.3
1.7
12.6
1.5
14.1
1.5
12.6
1.4
13.6
1.5
12.1
1.4 -2.8% 1.4%
13.4 -0.3pp -0.1pp
1.5 0.0pp 0.0pp
11.9 -0.3pp -0.1pp
-4.3
20.8
3.0
22.3
-4.7
20.4
-6.7
17.8
-4.9
17.0
2.0
17.9
1.3
18.0
1.3
17.8
1.3
17.0
1.3 -2.2% 1.3%
16.8 -0.6pp -0.2pp
-13.6
2.5
-2.0
1.4
-13.9
0.1
-16.8
-1.2
-6.8
-0.8
2.3
0.4
2.5
0.7
2.0
0.9
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.7
-5.0%
0.1pp
1.8%
0.2pp
36
Cofina – KPI (before)
%
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Newspapers
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
Magazines
Revenues YoY
EBITDA Margin
08 February
2013
CAGR CAGR
11-15E 15-21E
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2020E 2021E
-6.9
16.0
0.9
15.1
1.7
17.0
3.1
13.8
-7.1
15.6
1.8
13.8
-7.7
15.1
1.9
13.2
-4.8
14.1
1.9
12.2
1.3
14.4
1.8
12.6
1.4
14.6
1.7
12.9
1.4
14.4
1.5
12.9
1.4
13.9
1.5
12.4
1.4 -2.5% 1.4%
13.7 -0.3pp -0.1pp
1.5 0.0pp 0.0pp
12.2 -0.2pp -0.1pp
-4.3
20.8
3.0
22.3
-4.7
20.4
-6.0
18.3
-4.2
17.7
1.2
17.9
1.3
18.1
1.3
17.8
1.3
17.0
1.3 -2.0% 1.3%
16.8 -0.6pp -0.2pp
-13.6
2.5
-2.0
1.4
-13.9
0.1
-13.4
3.9
-7.0
1.3
1.7
1.9
1.7
2.1
1.7
2.3
1.7
3.0
1.7
3.1
-4.5%
0.5pp
1.7%
0.2pp
Cofina –
Sum-of–the-parts
Value
€ million
Total
Newspapers/Magazines
TV unit
Non-operating assets
YE12 Net Debt & adjustments
YE12 Net Debt
Dividends to be paid out in 2013
Minorities
Equity Value
Number of shares
Price Target YE13 (€ / share)
Stake
Method
144.6
136.2 100.0%
5.0
3.4
85.4
82.1
1.1
1.1
59.3
102.57
0.58
DCF
Pct Change
Implied Multiple Previous Change
EV/EBITDA 13 9.4x
BV
BV
137.4
129.0
5.0
3.4
84.7
80.9
1.5
1.2
52.8
102.57
0.51
7.2
7.2
5%
6%
0.0
0.7
1.1
-0.4
-0.1
6.5
0%
1%
1%
-24%
-7%
12%
0.06
12%
Cofina - DCF –
Newspapers and
magazines
€ million
2009
2010
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
EBIT
(+) Non-Cash Items
(-) Taxes on EBIT
Discount Factor
18.4
3.0
-4.9
-1.2
-5.5
9.8
19.5
3.6
-5.2
-4.3
14.8
28.5
16.4
3.4
-4.3
-2.2
54.0
67.1
12.8
2.9
-3.4
-2.2
-5.6
4.6
Enterprise Value
11.3
3.1
-3.0
-2.1
-0.2
9.2
1.00
9.2
61.5
74.7
136.2
12.8
3.0
-3.4
-2.0
0.0
10.4
0.87
9.0
13.3
2.9
-3.5
-1.9
0.2
10.9
0.76
8.2
13.6
2.6
-3.6
-1.7
0.2
11.1
0.67
7.5
13.7
2.6
-3.6
-1.7
0.2
11.2
0.60
6.7
13.7
2.7
-3.6
-1.8
0.2
11.2
0.54
6.0
13.7
2.7
-3.6
-1.8
0.2
11.2
0.48
5.4
13.7
2.7
-3.6
-1.8
0.2
11.3
0.43
4.8
13.8
2.8
-3.6
-1.8
1.2
12.3
0.38
4.7
CAGR
11-15E
-5.1%
-3.8%
-5.1%
-3.6%
-76.2%
-36.5%
CAGR
15-21E
0.6%
-0.7%
0.6%
-0.7%
38.8%
2.0%
37
Cofina –
Discount rates
assumptions
Risk-Free Rate
Market Premium
Unlevered Beta
Levered Beta
Cost of Equity*
Cost of Debt **
Corporate Tax Rate
Leverage
WACC
LT Inflation
WACC-g
New Assumptions
2013- 2015
2016-2021
Terminal value
2.50%
2.50%
2.50%
7.50%
4.50%
1.50%
5.00%
5.00%
5.00%
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.30
1.30
1.30
18.80%
14.89%
10.98%
9.00%
7.50%
6.00%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
6.39%
5.32%
4.26%
30%
30%
30%
15.08%
12.02%
8.96%
2.52%
1.00%
1.50%
6.45%
08 February
2013
2012- 2015
2016-2021
Terminal value
2.50%
2.50%
2.50%
10.50%
6.00%
1.50%
5.00%
5.00%
5.00%
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.30
1.30
1.30
22.72%
16.85%
10.98%
9.00%
7.50%
6.00%
29.0%
29.0%
29.0%
6.39%
5.32%
4.26%
30%
30%
30%
17.82%
13.39%
8.96%
2.52%
1.00%
1.50%
6.45%
5%.
38
Cofina –
Shareholder structure
08 February
2013
Shareholder Structure - Nov 23rd 2012
# Shares
Management (direct stakes)
53,235,618
Ana Rebelo Mendonça Fernandes
15,385,276
Domingos José Vieira de Matos
7,381,112
Paulo Jorge dos Santos Fernandes (Chairman)
9,201,582
Direct stake
3,785,746
Caminho Aberto, SGPS
5,415,836
*Caderno Azul SGPS:
7,392,429
*Caderno Azul SGPS:
7,392,429
Pedro Miguel Matos Borges Oliveira
5,628,291
Pedro Macedo Pinto de Mendonça
854,500
Newshold**
15,464,528
Credit Suisse
5,053,334
Maria João Fernandes Vieira de Matos
2,051,500
Santander - Gestão de Fundos
317,090
Own Shares
0
Free Float
26,443,766
Total Shares
102,565,836
Voting Shares
102,565,836
Economic
Stake
51.90%
15.00%
7.20%
8.97%
3.69%
5.28%
7.21%
7.21%
5.49%
0.83%
15.08%
4.93%
2.00%
0.31%
0.00%
25.78%
Voting
Rights
51.90%
15.00%
7.20%
8.97%
3.69%
5.28%
7.21%
7.21%
5.49%
0.83%
15.08%
4.93%
2.00%
0.31%
0.00%
25.78%
14.41%
7.21%
7.21%
14.41%
7.21%
7.21%
Source: Company data; Millennium investment banking
*Caderno Azul SGPS:
14,784,857
João Manuel Matos Borges de Oliveira (Management 7,392,429
Carlos Manuel Matos Borges de Oliveira (heirs)
7,392,429
** held by Pineview Overseas (91.25% stake)
39
Cofina –
P&L - quarterly evolution
08 February
€ million
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12E 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E
Operating Revenues
Newspapers
Magazines
Cash Costs
Newspapers
Magazines
EBITDA
Margin
Newspapers
Magazines
Depreciation
EBIT
Margin
Net Financials
EBT
Taxes
EBM
Minority Interests
Net Income
26.4 29.7 29.5 29.6 25.0 28.1 28.0 28.0
20.5 23.2 23.1 23.5 19.5 21.9 21.9 22.4
5.9
6.5
6.5
6.1
5.5
6.2
6.1
5.6
-23.2 -25.9 -25.2 -25.2 -22.1 -24.6 -23.8 -24.0
-16.8 -19.1 -18.7 -19.6 -16.3 -18.1 -17.9 -18.8
-6.3
-6.9
-6.5
-5.6
-5.8
-6.6
-5.9
-5.2
3.2
3.7
4.4
4.4
2.8
3.5
4.1
4.0
12.3% 12.6% 14.8% 14.8% 11.3% 12.3% 14.8% 14.3%
3.6
4.2
4.4
3.9
3.2
3.9
4.0
3.5
-0.4
-0.4
0.0
0.5
-0.4
-0.4
0.1
0.5
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.5
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-0.5
2.4
2.9
3.6
3.9
2.0
2.6
3.3
3.5
9.2% 9.9% 12.1% 13.2% 7.9% 9.3% 11.7% 12.4%
-1.1
-1.2
-0.8
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
1.4
1.8
2.7
2.9
1.0
1.6
2.4
2.5
-1.1
-1.4
-1.2
1.0
-0.9
-1.2
-1.1
0.8
0.3
0.4
1.6
3.9
0.2
0.4
1.4
3.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
0.3
1.6
3.8
0.2
0.3
1.4
3.2
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
YoY YoY YoY YoYE YoYE YoYE
-11%
-9%
-8%
-9%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-6%
-6%
-6%
-5%
-5%
-14% -20% -16% -16%
-8%
-5%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-7%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-1%
-4%
-4%
-3%
-5%
-14% -20% -13% -14%
-8%
-5%
-24.5% -21.6% -17.7% -18.5% -12.9% -7.6%
-15% -14% -10% -11%
-8%
-2%
-24% -21% -14% -16% -12%
-7%
-16% -17% -96% -32% -12%
0%
-15% -15% -14% -12%
6%
6%
-27% -23% -18% -19% -19% -11%
-19% -15% -11% -12% -15%
-6%
nm -65% -61% 18% -10% -15%
-79%
nm 23% -27% -26%
-9%
-43% 65%
-6%
nm -22% -11%
-94%
nm 61%
nm -43%
-2%
-42% 55%
nm
2%
5%
-6%
-93%
nm 64%
nm -37%
-1%
2013
3Q13 4Q13
YoYE YoYE
-5%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-7%
-8%
-5%
-5%
-4%
-4%
-9%
-8%
-5.3% -8.9%
0%
-4%
-8%
-9%
nm -11%
9%
9%
-8% -11%
-3%
-6%
2%
-6%
-12% -13%
-12% -17%
-11% -14%
nm -26%
-13% -14%
Cofina –
Operating performance –
breakdown by
business area
€ million
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12E 1Q13E 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E
Circulation
Advertising
Alter. Products & Other
Cash Costs
EBITDA
26.4
14.8
9.4
2.2
0.0
-23.2
3.2
Margin
Newspapers
Circulation
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Magazines
Circulation
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
29.7
14.9
10.6
4.1
0.0
-25.9
3.7
29.5
16.5
9.1
3.9
0.0
-25.2
4.4
29.6
14.0
11.3
4.2
0.0
-25.2
4.4
25.0
14.2
8.2
2.6
0.0
-22.1
2.8
28.1
14.2
9.5
4.4
0.0
-24.6
3.5
28.0
15.9
8.0
4.1
0.0
-23.8
4.1
28.0
13.4
9.8
4.7
0.0
-24.0
4.0
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
YoY YoY YoY YoYE YoYE YoYE YoYE YoYE
-11%
-9%
-8%
-9%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-7%
-6%
-7%
-7%
-4%
-5%
-4%
-4%
-18% -21% -19% -18% -12% -11% -12% -13%
3% 22% 26% 19% 16%
6%
5% 10%
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
-8%
-7%
-6%
-7%
-4%
-5%
-5%
-5%
-25% -22% -18% -18% -12%
-8%
-5%
-9%
12.2% 12.6% 14.8% 14.8% 11.3% 12.3% 14.8% 14.3% -2.3pp -2.0pp
20.5
11.3
7.5
1.7
-16.8
3.6
23.2
11.4
8.3
3.5
-19.1
4.2
23.1
12.7
7.2
3.2
-18.7
4.4
23.5
11.0
8.7
3.7
-19.6
3.9
19.5
10.8
6.6
2.1
-16.3
3.2
21.9
10.9
7.3
3.7
-18.1
3.9
21.9
12.2
6.3
3.4
-17.9
4.0
22.4
10.6
7.6
4.2
-18.8
3.5
-9.5%
-4.9%
-18.3%
6%
-5.7%
-23.9%
-5.6%
-5.3%
-17.5%
41%
-1.4%
-21.2%
17.7% 17.9% 18.9% 16.5% 16.3% 17.7% 18.3% 15.8% -3.3pp -3.5pp
-1.7pp -1.8pp -0.9pp -0.3pp
-5.7%
-5.7%
-16.4%
33%
-3.5%
-13.7%
-6.3%
-5.2%
-15.8%
22%
-4.0%
-16.2%
-4.7%
-4.2%
-11.3%
21%
-3.0%
-12.4%
-5.4%
-4.0%
-11.7%
5%
-5.1%
-6.8%
0.0pp -0.6pp
-4.9%
-3.8%
-12.3%
7%
-4.1%
-8.3%
-4.6%
-4.1%
-12.6%
12%
-3.9%
-8.6%
-1.8pp -2.0pp -1.4pp -0.3pp -0.7pp -0.7pp
5.9
3.5
1.9
0.5
-6.3
-0.4
6.5
3.6
2.3
0.6
-6.9
-0.4
6.5
3.9
1.9
0.7
-6.5
0.0
6.1
3.0
2.6
0.5
-5.6
0.5
5.5
3.4
1.6
0.5
-5.8
-0.4
6.2
3.3
2.1
0.7
-6.6
-0.4
6.1
3.7
1.7
0.7
-5.9
0.1
5.6 -14% -20% -16% -16%
-8%
-5%
-7%
-8%
2.9 -13.3% -9.4% -11.6% -11.7% -4.0% -6.1% -5.0% -4.9%
2.2 -17.6% -30.4% -26.7% -23.5% -15.9% -8.6% -11.0% -12.9%
0.5
-6% -31%
-1%
-1%
-1% 16%
-4%
-4%
-5.2 -14% -20% -13% -14%
-8%
-5%
-9%
-8%
0.5 -16% -17% -96% -32% -12%
0%
nm -11%
-6.9%
-6.4%
0.1%
8.4%
-6.6%
-6.7%
2.3%
8.1%
0.1pp -0.3pp
-3.1pp -2.0pp
0.3pp -0.3pp
2.2pp -0.3pp
40
Cofina –
FY12 earnings – P&L
€ million
08 February
2013
FY11 FY12E YoYE 4Q11 3Q12 4Q12E YoYE QoQE
Operating Revenues 126.7 115.2 -9% 32.3 29.5 29.6 -9%
0%
Newspapers
96.7 90.2
-7% 25.0 23.1 23.5
-6%
2%
Magazines
30.0 25.0 -17%
7.3
6.5
6.1 -16%
-6%
Cash Costs
-106.9 -99.4 -7% -26.9 -25.2 -25.2 -7%
0%
Newspapers
-77.0 -74.2
-4% -20.4 -18.7 -19.6
-4%
5%
Magazines
-30.0 -25.3 -16%
-6.5
-6.5
-5.6 -14% -14%
EBITDA
19.7 15.7 -20%
5.4
4.4
4.4 -18%
0%
Margin
15.6% 13.7% -1.9pp 16.6% 14.8% 14.8% -1.8pp 0.0pp
Newspapers
19.7 16.0 -19%
4.6
4.4
3.9 -16% -11%
Magazines
0.0
-0.3
nm
0.8
0.0
0.5 -32%
nm
Depreciation
-3.4
-2.9 -14%
-0.6
-0.8
-0.5 -12% -38%
EBIT
16.4 12.9 -21%
4.8
3.6
3.9 -19%
9%
Margin
12.9% 11.2% -0.1pp 14.9% 12.1% 13.2% -1.8pp 1.1pp
Net Financials
-3.0
-4.0 34%
-0.8
-0.8
-1.0 18% 18%
EBT
13.3
8.8 -34%
4.0
2.7
2.9 -27%
6%
Taxes
-8.4
-2.6 -69%
-4.4
-1.2
1.0
nm
nm
EBM
4.9
6.2 25%
-0.4
1.6
3.9
nm
nm
Minority Interests
-0.1
-0.2 24%
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
2%
nm
Net Income
4.8
6.0 25%
-0.6
1.6
3.8
nm
nm
Cofina – FY12 earnings
breakdown
€ million
Circulation
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Newspapers
Circulation
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
Magazines
Circulation
Advertising
Cash Costs
EBITDA
Margin
FY11 FY12E YoYE 4Q11 3Q12 4Q12E YoYE QoQE
126.7 115.2
64.7 60.3
49.8 40.4
12.2 14.5
-106.9 -99.4
19.8 15.7
-9%
-7%
-19%
19%
-7%
-20%
32.3
15.0
13.7
3.6
-26.9
5.4
29.5
16.5
9.1
3.9
-25.2
4.4
29.6
14.0
11.3
4.2
-25.2
4.4
-8.5% 0.1%
-6.7% -15.0%
-17.7% 23.7%
18.7% 8.9%
-6.5% 0.0%
-18.5% 0.2%
15.6% 13.7% -1.9pp 16.6% 14.8% 14.8% -1.8pp
96.7
48.9
38.2
9.6
-77.0
19.7
90.2
46.3
31.7
12.2
-74.2
16.0
-7%
-5%
-17%
27%
-4%
-19%
25.0
11.6
10.4
3.1
-20.4
4.6
23.1
12.7
7.2
3.2
-18.7
4.4
23.5
11.0
8.7
3.7
-19.6
3.9
-6.3%
-5.2%
-15.8%
22.0%
-4.0%
-16.2%
0.0pp
1.7%
-13.0%
21.0%
16.4%
4.8%
-11.3%
20.4% 17.8% -2.6pp 18.5% 18.9% 16.5% -2.0pp -2.4pp
30.0
15.8
11.6
2.6
-30.0
0.0
25.0
14.0
8.7
2.3
-25.3
-0.3
-17%
-12%
-25%
-12%
-16%
nm
7.3
3.4
3.3
0.5
-6.5
0.8
6.5
3.9
1.9
0.7
-6.5
0.0
6.1
3.0
2.6
0.5
-5.6
0.5
-16.3%
-11.7%
-23.5%
-0.7%
-14.4%
-32.4%
-5.9%
-21.8%
33.6%
-25.5%
-13.6%
nm
0.1%
-1.2% -1.3pp 10.3%
0.1%
8.4% -2.0pp
8.2pp
41
Cofina - Balance sheet
08 February
€ million
2009
2010
2011
2012E 2013E 2014E
2015E 2016E 2017E 2021E
Assets
Non-current assets
Tangible
Goodwill
Investments
Other
Current assets
Inventories
Accounts receivables
Other
Cash and equivalents
Equity
Minority interests
Liabilities
Financial Debt
Accounts payable
Other
247.5
110.9
9.9
92.0
4.7
4.3
136.6
3.1
11.4
75.8
46.3
3.7
0.6
243.2
201.3
12.8
29.2
219.7
118.4
10.8
95.0
3.4
9.3
101.3
4.0
12.6
59.5
25.2
7.2
0.7
211.8
169.1
11.5
31.2
174.1
114.8
9.6
93.7
3.4
8.0
59.3
4.1
9.2
6.9
39.2
11.1
0.8
162.2
121.5
9.4
31.2
173.0
114.1
8.9
93.7
3.4
8.0
59.0
4.1
8.3
7.4
39.2
16.1
1.0
156.0
121.3
9.5
25.2
169.7
111.1
5.9
93.7
3.4
8.0
58.7
4.1
8.2
7.2
39.2
30.3
1.5
138.0
103.5
9.8
24.6
171.2
113.0
7.8
93.7
3.4
8.0
58.2
4.1
7.9
7.0
39.2
19.9
1.1
150.2
116.4
9.6
24.1
170.5
112.0
6.8
93.7
3.4
8.0
58.5
4.1
8.1
7.1
39.2
25.1
1.3
144.1
110.1
9.7
24.3
169.1
110.2
5.0
93.7
3.4
8.0
58.9
4.1
8.3
7.3
39.2
33.5
1.7
133.9
99.0
9.9
25.0
168.4
109.3
4.1
93.7
3.4
8.0
59.1
4.1
8.4
7.4
39.2
35.2
1.9
131.3
96.0
10.0
25.3
169.7
109.7
1.5
93.7
5.4
9.0
60.0
4.1
8.9
7.8
39.2
44.2
2.7
122.8
84.6
10.4
27.8
2013
CAGR
11-15E
-0.6%
-0.8%
-11.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.3%
0.0%
-2.8%
1.2%
0.0%
28.5%
17.3%
-4.0%
-3.9%
1.0%
-5.8%
CAGR
15-21E
0.0%
-0.2%
-20.2%
0.0%
7.9%
2.0%
0.4%
0.0%
1.4%
1.3%
0.0%
6.5%
10.6%
-1.9%
-3.3%
1.0%
2.0%
CAGR
11-15E
-2.8%
-2.4%
-4.9%
-3.8%
-5.1%
2.1%
-7.1%
-24.8%
10.1%
10.1%
10.1%
10.1%
10.1%
CAGR
15-21E
1.4%
1.6%
0.4%
-0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
CAGR
11-15E
-36.5%
19.3%
-35.5%
16.5%
-39.4%
-32.7%
CAGR
15-21E
1.9%
20.4%
-6.2%
18.0%
-6.2%
1.6%
CAGR
11-15E
-4.9%
-3.6%
-5.1%
-11.8%
-9.7%
-6.0%
-1.1%
-26.8%
-6.4%
5.3%
CAGR
15-21E
0.4%
-0.7%
0.5%
nm
1.2%
-5.6%
-6.0%
-11.4%
-5.0%
-0.7%
Cofina –
Income statement
€ million
Operating Revenues
Cash Costs
EBITDA
EBIT
Net Financials
EBT
Taxes
EBM
Minority Interests
Net Income
Net Earnings
EPS (€)
2009
2010
134.1
-112.7
21.4
-3.0
18.4
6.4
24.8
-7.5
17.3
-0.2
17.1
17.1
0.17
136.3
-113.2
23.1
-3.6
19.5
-16.4
3.1
2.1
5.3
-0.2
5.0
5.0
0.05
2011 2012E
126.7
-106.9
19.8
-3.4
16.4
-3.0
13.4
-8.4
5.0
-0.1
4.8
4.8
0.05
115.2
-99.4
15.7
-2.9
12.8
-4.0
8.8
-2.6
6.2
-0.2
6.0
6.0
0.06
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2021E
109.0
-94.6
14.4
-3.1
11.3
-3.7
7.6
-2.3
5.3
-0.1
5.2
5.2
0.05
111.2
-95.5
15.8
-3.0
12.8
-3.5
9.2
-2.8
6.5
-0.2
6.3
6.3
0.06
113.0
-96.9
16.1
-2.9
13.3
-3.3
10.0
-2.7
7.3
-0.2
7.1
7.1
0.07
114.7
-98.5
16.2
-2.6
13.6
-3.1
10.6
-2.8
7.7
-0.2
7.5
7.5
0.07
116.3
-100.0
16.3
-2.6
13.7
-3.9
9.8
-2.6
7.1
-0.2
6.9
6.9
0.07
123.0
-106.5
16.5
-2.8
13.8
-3.4
10.4
-2.8
7.6
-0.2
7.4
7.4
0.07
Cofina –
Cash-flow statement
€ million
2009
2010
2011 2012E
Dividends paid
CFO+CFI
CFO ex-interest+CFI
19.7
-2.7
-18.4
0.0
16.9
13.3
18.6
-6.1
-33.7
-1.0
12.5
35.0
63.5
-0.9
-48.6
-1.0
62.6
66.6
3.5
-2.2
-1.3
-1.0
1.3
7.5
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2021E
8.2
-2.1
-6.2
-1.3
6.2
12.0
9.5
-2.0
-7.5
-1.1
7.5
13.0
10.3
-1.9
-8.4
-1.9
8.4
13.6
10.5
-1.7
-8.8
-4.2
8.8
13.6
10.0
-1.7
-8.2
-5.2
8.3
13.9
11.6
-5.8
-5.7
-5.1
5.7
15.0
Cofina –
Leverage indicators
€ million
2009
2010
2011 2012E
EBITDA
21.4
Capex
1.2
EBITDA-Capex
20.2
19.3
5.0
Net Debt
154.9
7.2
42.4
1.0
4.3
23.1
4.3
18.9
17.8
3.3
144.0
6.2
20.0
0.9
7.0
19.8
2.2
17.5
16.5
3.1
82.4
4.2
7.4
0.9
6.4
15.7
2.2
13.5
12.2
2.6
82.1
5.2
5.1
0.8
6.2
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2021E
14.4
2.1
12.3
11.2
2.5
77.2
5.4
3.9
0.8
5.8
15.8
2.0
13.8
11.9
2.3
70.9
4.5
2.8
0.7
7.0
16.1
1.9
14.2
10.0
2.0
64.4
4.0
2.1
0.7
7.9
16.2
1.7
14.5
9.3
1.9
59.8
3.7
1.8
0.6
8.8
16.3
1.7
14.5
9.7
2.6
56.8
3.5
1.6
0.6
6.2
16.5
1.8
14.7
2.2
2.2
45.5
2.7
1.0
0.5
7.6
42
08 February
2013
Disclosures
This report has been prepared on behalf of Millennium investment banking (Mib), a registered trademark of Banco Comercial Português,
S.A. (Millennium bcp).
Millennium bcp is regulated by Comissão de Mercado de Valores Mobiliários.
This report was not shown to the companies.
Neither the companies were aware of the recommendation nor was it changed.
Recommendations:
Buy means more than 10% absolute return;
Neutral means between 0% and +10% absolute return;
Reduce means between -10% and 0% absolute return;
Sell means less than -10% absolute return.
Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is current year-end or next year-end.
Risk is defined by the analyst’s view in a qualitative way.
Usually we update our models and price targets in between 3 and 9 months.
Millennium bcp prohibits its analysts and members of their households to own any shares of the companies covered by them.
BCP group may have business relationships with the companies mentioned in this report.
Millennium bcp, expects to receive or intends to seek compensations for investment banking services from the companies mentioned in
this report.
The views expressed above, accurately reflect personal views of the authors. They have not and will not receive any compensation for
providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. There were not any agreements between the companies covered and the
analysts regarding the recommendation.
Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of BCP group, which includes investment banking revenues.
BCP group has more than 2% of Cofina.
Impresa
0.80
0.74
0.67
0.61
0.55
0.48
0.42
0.35
0.29
Recommendation
Stock Price
Mar/13
Feb/13
Jan/13
Dec/12
Nov/12
Oct/12
Sep/12
Aug/12
Jul/12
Jun/12
May/12
Apr/12
Mar/12
Feb/12
Buy
Neutral
Reduce
Sell
(Unrated)
Price Target
43
08 February
2013
Media Capital
2.45
2.23
2.01
1.79
1.58
1.36
1.14
0.92
0.70
Recommendation
Stock Price
Feb/13
Jan/13
Dec/12
Nov/12
Oct/12
Sep/12
Aug/12
Jul/12
Jun/12
May/12
Apr/12
Mar/12
Feb/12
Jan/12
Buy
Neutral
Reduce
Sell
(Unrated)
Price Target
Cofina
0.66
0.61
0.57
0.52
0.48
0.43
0.39
0.34
0.30
Recommendation
Stock Price
Mar/13
Feb/13
Jan/13
Dec/12
Nov/12
Oct/12
Sep/12
Aug/12
Jul/12
Jun/12
May/12
Apr/12
Mar/12
Feb/12
Buy
Neutral
Reduce
Sell
(Unrated)
Price Target
DISCLAIMER
This information is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to enter into any particular deal or contract. It consists of data
compiled by or of opinions or estimates from Banco Comercial Português, S.A. and no representation or warranty is
made as to its accuracy or completeness. This information is merely an auxiliary means of analysis to be used by its
recipients, who will be solely responsible for its use, including for any losses or damages that may, directly or indirectly,
derive from it. Its reproduction is not allowed without permission from the BCP group. The data herein disclosed are
merely indicative and reflect the market conditions prevailing on the date they have been collected. Thus, its accuracy
and timing must absolutely be confirmed before its usage. Any alteration in the market conditions shall imply the
introduction of changes in this report. This information / these opinions may be altered without prior notice and may
differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas of BCP group as a result of using different
assumptions and criteria. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions
could result in materially different results.
44
OFFICE LOCATIONS
Millennium investment banking
Av. José Malhoa, Lote 27 - 5
1099-010 Lisboa
Portugal
Telephone +351 21 003 7811
Fax
+351 21 003 7819 / 39
Equity Team
Luis Feria (Head of Equities)
Equity Research +351 21 115 6220
António Seladas, CFA (Head)
Fundamental Analysis
Alexandra Delgado, CFA (Telecoms and IT)
Antonio Seladas, CFA (Industrials & Small caps)
João Flores (Media and Retail)
Rita Silva (Banks)
Vanda Mesquita (Banks, Utilities and Oil&Gas)
Market Analysis
Ramiro Loureiro
Sónia Martins
Telma Santos
Publishing
Sónia Primo
Prime Brokerage +351 21 003 7855
Vitor Almeida
Equity Trading +351 21 003 7850
Paulo Cruz (Head)
Gonçalo Lima
Jorge Caldeira
Nuno Sousa
Paulo Sousa
Pedro Ferreira Cruz
Pedro Gonçalves
Pedro Lalanda
Rodrigo Roque Pinho
Equity Derivatives +351 21 003 7890
Jorge Pina (Head)
Ana Lagarelhos
Diogo Justino
Marco Barata
Maria Cardoso Baptista, CFA

Millennium Report Media Feb_13

Transcription

Similar documents

Map Overlay