LOW RES
Transcription
LOW RES
LOW RES PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE ROCKS ANTARCTIC RESEARCH SERIES VOLUME 76, PAGES 335-347 RESPONSE OF WINTERTIME ANTARCTIC TEMPERATURES TO THE ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION: RESULTS OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL Michiel R. van den Broeke Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht, Netherlands Nicole P. M. van Lipzig* Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands We describe Antarctic wintertime (July 1980–1993) surface temperature changes in response to the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), using output of a regional atmospheric climate model. During conditions of AAO positive polarity (strong large scale westerly circulation), the south Atlantic storm centre is displaced eastward which cuts off the atmospheric branch of the Weddell Gyre. This causes surface temperatures in the Weddell Sea and over the Antarctic Peninsula to rise by up to 8 K, which has important implications for the formation of sea ice and deep water in the Weddell Sea and the viability of the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. On the other hand, a cooling of up to 5 K occurs locally in East Antarctica in places where near-surface easterly winds have decreased over the perennial ice. This is due to reduced downward mixing of warm air in the stable boundary layer. An amplified temperature response is found over the flat ice shelves, where the damping effect of the katabatic wind-forcing on surface temperature changes is absent. This contributes up to 3 K to the surface warming of the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves and up to 8 K cooling over the ice shelves of in western Dronning Maud Land. 1. INTRODUCTION These regional differences have been explained in terms of Southern Hemisphere large scale circulation variability. The two leading modes of large scale variability in high southern latitudes [Connolley, 1997] are the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) [Thompson and Wallace, 2000] and changes in the amplitude of the semiannual oscillation (SAO) [Van Loon, 1967; Simmonds and Walland, 1998; and Walland and Simmonds, 1999]. There is an appreciable influence of the SAO on the distribution of sea ice around Antarctica [Enemoto and Ohmura, 1990]. Comparing pre and post 1975 amplitude of the SAO we see a decrease of SAO strength in the latter decades. This has led to changes in the annual cycle of pressure, temperature, wind speed and sea ice cover in Antarctica [Harangozo, 1997; and Van den Broeke, Temperature trends in Antarctica have not been uniform in the last decades. A strong warming in the Antarctic Peninsula (2.5°C in the last 45 years) [King and Harangozo, 1998] has led to the rapid disintegration of the northern ice shelves [Vaughan and Doake, 1996, likely caused by increased meltwater ponding and associated ice shelf weakening [Scambos et al., 2000]. On the other hand, a cooling between 1986 and 2000 has been signaled in the Dry Valleys in Victoria Land [Doran et al., 2002] and in other regions in East Antarctica. *Presently at: British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union 1 LOW RES 2 PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE FOSSILIFEROURS ERRATICS 2000a] as well as an outspoken regional differentiation in Antarctic temperature trends [Van den Broeke, 2000b]. On the other hand, regional differences in Antarctic nearsurface temperature trends have also been ascribed to a persistent positive polarity of the AAO in recent decades, possibly related to springtime ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere [Thompson and Solomon, 2002]. There are indications that a weak SAO is another manifestation of the positive phase of the AAO [Burnett and McNicoll, 2000]. The interaction of the large scale circulation with the near-surface climate is not simple in Antarctica, because the Antarctic surface layer is characterised by strong horizontal and vertical temperature gradients [Connolley, 1996] and persistent katabatic winds [Parish and Bromwich, 1987]. All are ultimately forced by the surface radiation deficit over the ice sheet and interact in a complex fashion: a temperature deficit develops in the near-surface air when heat is exchanged with the cold surface. The negatively buoyant air flows down the slope of the ice sheet, resulting in the well known Antarctic katabatic winds. These winds, in their turn, generate turbulence that mix relatively warm air toward the surface. That is why in infrared satellite imagery regions of active katabatic winds are visible as warm surface signatures [Bromwich, 1989; and Heinemann, 2000]. They can also be detected through their elevated 10-m snow potential temperature [Van den Broeke et al, 1999]. Therefore, if one aims to understand Antarctic surface layer temperature change, one must also understand changes in the wind field and vice versa. Given the above, it is not surprising that the effect of large scale circulation variability on the near surface climate in Antarctica depends strongly on the local geographical and climatological setting. In this paper we use output of a regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO/ANT1), which enables us to present in detail the surface layer wintertime temperature changes that occur in the Antarctic Peninsula region and other parts in Antarctica in response to the AAO. 2. MODEL AND METHODS The regional climate model RACMO/ANT1 is based on the ECHAM4 model, a mix of the European centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Max Planck Institüt für Meteorologie global circulation models. The RACMO/ANT1 model domain of 122 x 130 grid points covers entire Antarctica and part of the surrounding oceans and corresponds to the area shown in Figure 1. At the lateral boundaries, RACMO is continuously forced by ERA15 data (ECMWF reanalysis, 1980–1993). Sea ice and sea surface temperatures are prescribed from ERA15. Horizontal resolution is app. 55 km, which enables a reasonably accurate representation of the steep coastal ice slopes and the ice shelves fringing the coast. In the vertical, 20 hybrid levels are used. An additional layer at 6–7 m above the surface was included to better capture the strong temperature and wind speed gradients near the surface. Several improvements were made to improve the model performance over Antarctica, especially with regard to the physical representation of the snow surface. For example, the deep snow temperature initialisation was performed using the first two harmonics of the observed temperature cycle instead of a simple cosine function with a no flux boundary condition in the deep snow. For a more detailed description of the model the reader is referred to Van Lipzig, 1999. The performance of RACMO/ANT1 is a great improvement over earlier models [Van Lipzig et al., 1998; 1999]. In a detailed comparison with station data, Van Lipzig (1999) showed that annual mean temperature, wind speed and directional constancy are simulated with RMSE’s of 1.5 K, 2 m s-1 and 0.12. Clearly, the more sophisticated TKE-based turbulence parameterisation in RACMO/ANT1 solved the problem of the much too low Antarctic surface temperatures in ERA15, which resulted from the decoupling of the surface layer from the overlying boundary layer due to a too strong suppression of mixing under stable conditions. In this paper, the lowest terrain following model level (6–7 m above the surface) is referred to as the surface layer, while model layer 11 (with a height of about 6 km above the sea surface, less over the ice sheet surface) is chosen as being representative for the free atmosphere. To distinguish between the positive/negative polarities of the AAO we use the detrended 1980-93 July AAO index [Thompson and Wallace, 2000]. The timeseries of the AAO index is based on the first principal component of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NRA) 850-hPa extratropical height field (20–90°S). Because the index shoes a spurious trend that is associated with unphysical atmospheric mass loss over Antarctica in the NRA, we used the index time series detrended for the period of interest (1980–1993). Figure 2 shows the detrended July averaged AAO index together with the RACMO free-atmosphere zonal wind velocity ULSC over the Southern Ocean (14 July months in the period 1980–1993). The ocean values of ULSC represent the average over model level 11 grid LOW RES VAN DEN BROEKE AND VAN LIPZIG: AAO AND ANTARCTIC CLIMATE 3 Fig. 1. Model domain, model topography and some topographical features of Antarctica. Stippled areas: model ice shelves; shaded: average July model sea ice extent (1980–93). Surface elevation (m asl) is contoured every 500 m. points (about 6 km above the surface) that are situated between 600 and 800 km from the Antarctic coastline. The Antarctic coastline we defined as the first model grid point with a glacier mask, which includes the ice shelves. Figure 2 shows that 80% of the variability in ULSC is explained by the AAO index (r = 0.89). In other words, the AAO index is a good measure for the strength of the free atmosphere zonal circulation (or ‘polar vortex’) over Antarctica. Note also the very high variability in polar vortex strength, with monthly mean values in ULSC ranging from 9 to 20 m s-1. To distinguish between free atmosphere and surface layer changes, we partition potential temperature Θ (z) into a background temperature profile Θ0 (z), representative of free atmosphere conditions, and a potential temperature perturbation near the surface ∆Θ (z): Θ (z) = Θ0 (z) + ∆Θ (z) Note that ∆Θ (z) is negative in the stable boundary layer over the ice sheet but may become positive in areas where cold continental air is being advected over relatively warm seawater. We assume that Θ0 has a linear lapse rate γΘ = ∂Θ0/∂z that is constant with height: Θ0 (z) = Θ0 (0) + γΘ z LOW RES 4 PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE FOSSILIFEROURS ERRATICS Fig. 2. July mean large scale zonal wind ULSC from RACMO/ANT1 and detrended AAO index for the period 1980–1993 (see text). γΘ is obtained by making a linear fit with respect to z to the potential temperature at model levels 9 to 11. Finally, we constructed July ensembles for years with AAO positive polarity and AAO negative polarity (N=7), based on the sign of the deviation from the average in Figure 2. In the following, the difference between these ensembles is presented as AAO positive polarity minus AAO negative polarity, with a confidence level based on a two-sided t-test with 12 degrees of freedom. In the following figures, regions where changes reach the 95% confidence level are hatched. 3. RESULTS 3.1 Large Scale Circulation Changes Figure 3 shows 500 hPa height fields (Z500) for AAO positive polarity (dashed lines) and AAO negative polarity (solid lines). We chose this level because 500 hPa is the first standard pressure level that does not intersect the surface of Antarctica. It also is the main depression steering level and therefore crucial for the near-surface wind field. In the AAO negative polarity ensemble, two regional minima are found, one over the Ross Ice Shelf and one east of the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf. Apart from a general lowering of the 500 hPa level, the second minimum has disappeared in the AAO positive polarity ensemble, resulting in a more zonal flow pattern especially over the Antarctic Peninsula and the Weddell Sea. Meridional gradients in Z500 have generally increased over the ocean, indicative of a stronger mid-tropospheric polar vortex with relatively weak north-south air exchange. 3.2 Surface Pressure Changes Figure 4a shows AAO positive polarity (dashed lines) and AAO negative polarity (solid lines) ensembles of surface pressure ps. Because over the ice sheet this variable becomes meaningless, we only present ps over sea. In both ensembles the circumpolar pressure trough is visible with the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific climatological storm centres off the Antarctic coast. In the AAO positive polarity ensemble the storm centres have deepened by 4 to 8 hPa, assumed a flatter shape and moved closer to the continent. As a result, the meridional component of the geostrophic flow over the ocean has generally decreased. The South Atlantic and Pacific storm centres have shifted about 20 longitudinal degrees to the east. As we will see later, this has important consequences for the regional climate. Figure 4b shows the AAO positive polarity - AAO negative polarity difference in surface pressure (dashed regions indicate changes that reached the 95% confi- LOW RES VAN DEN BROEKE AND VAN LIPZIG: AAO AND ANTARCTIC CLIMATE 5 Fig. 3. July 500 hPa height fields (Z500) for AAO positive polarity (dashed lines) and AAO negative polarity (solid lines). dence limit). ps has fallen over almost the entire model domain, as much as 11 hPa over central East Antarctica. This pattern of change represents a large scale intensification of westerly geostrophic winds around Antarctica and a weakening of the easterlies south of the circumpolar pressure trough including the continent (see next section). Superimposed on this, there are important longitudinal asymmetries. The 20° eastward shift of the South Atlantic storm centre in the AAO positive polarity ensemble (Figure 4a) leads to relatively small values of surface pressure change over the Weddell Sea. However, the concurrent deepening and eastward shift of the Pacific storm centre off the coast of Marie Byrd Land produces a dipole pattern which results in a strong north-westerly flow anomaly over the Weddell Sea and the Antarctic Peninsula. This has a large impact on the regional circulation and temperature, as will be discussed next. 3.3 Surface Layer Wind Changes Plate 1a shows the July AAO negative polarity ensemble mean surface layer wind vector and wind directional constancy dc, the latter being defined as the ratio of the mean to vector mean wind speed. LOW RES 6 PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE FOSSILIFEROURS ERRATICS Fig. 4a. July surface pressure fields for AAO positive polarity (dashed lines) and AAO negative polarity (solid lines). Contour interval is 2 hPa. In good agreement with observations, strong and persistent katabatic winds are modelled over the sloping ice sheet margins. The Coriolis force deflects the katabatic winds to the left of the topographic fall-line, but surface drag maintains a downslope component in the surface layer [Van den Broeke et al., 2002]. With a directional constancy that exceeds 0.9, East Antarctic katabatic winds rival the trade winds as being the most directionally constant winds on Earth. Over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula the katabatic flow is less well developed because of the weaker surface layer temperature deficit (owing to more clouds and a warmer atmosphere). Over the domes of the interior East Antarctic ice sheet, far away from the coastal depressions and in absence of the katabatic pressure gradient force, winds are weak and dc is low. In the wintertime Antarctic surface layer the katabatic pressure gradient force dominates the downslope momentum budget, but recent studies have shown that up to 50% of the total downslope pressure gradient force over the ice sheet comes from the large scale pressure gradient force [Parish and Cassano, 2001; and Van den Broeke and Van Lipzig, 2002]. This explains for example LOW RES VAN DEN BROEKE AND VAN LIPZIG: AAO AND ANTARCTIC CLIMATE 7 Fig. 4b. Difference in July surface pressure: AAO positive polarity minus AAO negative polarity. Contour interval is 1 hPa. Hatches indicate area where confidence is greater than 95%. the persistent and strong surface layer easterlies that occur on the plateau in Wilkes Land [Allison et al., 1993]. Over the ice shelves, where the surface slope is very small (in the order of 1/1000) but the surface layer temperature deficit can become very large, katabatic forcing can still be a significant term in the surface layer momentum budget, but only when the large scale flow is weak [Kottmeier, 1986; and King, 1993]. Over flat surfaces like sea and sea ice, the surface layer flow is driven by the large scale pressure gradient force and/or thermal wind effects. Clearly examples in Plate 1a are the strong and directionally constant westerlies north of the circumpolar pressure trough and the easterlies south of it. In between is a belt with low dc, where surface layer winds turn from westerly to easterly and the vector mean wind speed becomes small (but not the absolute mean wind speed!). Other manifestations of persistent surface layer circulations that are forced by the large scale pressure gradient force are the southerly winds that blow along the western boundaries of the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves. These circulations represent the atmospheric branches of the Ross and LOW RES 8 PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE FOSSILIFEROURS ERRATICS Plate 1a. July surface layer wind vector (arrows, maximum 14.7 m s-1) and directional constancy (background colours) for AAO negative polarity. LOW RES VAN DEN BROEKE AND VAN LIPZIG: AAO AND ANTARCTIC CLIMATE Weddell Gyres that advect cold ice shelf air northward, promoting sea ice and deep water formation in the Ross and Weddell Seas [Schwerdtfeger, 1975]. They are primarily forced by the large scale pressure distribution (see red lines in Figure 4a). Plate 1b shows the AAO positive polarity-low anomaly field of surface layer vector wind (arrows) and the magnitude of the change (background colours). Over the ocean, the sign of the wind speed change reflects the stronger circumpolar vortex under AAO positive polarity conditions: north of the circumpolar pressure trough surface layer westerlies are enhanced by up to 4 m s-1 (and directional constancy has increased by up to 0.3, not shown). South of the circumpolar pressure trough, the circumpolar easterlies have weakened, especially over the Fimbul Ice Shelf around 0° E/W, which is associated with the eastward shift of the South Atlantic storm centre. Easterlies have also decreased significantly over the ocean north of Wilkes Land, in coastal West Antarctica and in the Weddell Sea. Over the ice sheet the katabatic pressure gradient force dominates the momentum budget in the surface layer. This means that the sign of vector wind speed change in Plate 1b is determined by the orientation of the geostrophic flow anomaly with respect to that of the ice sheet slope (which determines the direction of the katabatic pressure gradient force). This explains the dipole patterns centred at the main ice divides of East and West Antarctica in Plate 1b. For example, in Dronning Maud Land west of the main ice divide, the westerly geostrophic wind anomalies oppose the katabatic pressure gradient force and surface layer easterlies have weakened by up to 1.5 m s-1. Just east of the divide the situation is reversed. Here, the geostrophic wind anomaly supports the katabatic pressure gradient force, resulting in increased surface layer easterlies by up to 1 m s-1. Similar considerations apply to the dipole pattern in Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica and for smaller topographic features such as Berkner Island on the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf. An anomalous wind response is found over the Antarctic Peninsula. On the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, the weak south-westerly flow has traded places with stronger north-westerlies under strong AAO conditions, and wind speed has increased as a result. On the east coast, the migration of the South Atlantic storm centre has led to the cessation of southerly outflow from the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, and wind speeds have decreased in a significant fashion. 3.4 Surface Potential Temperature Changes As discussed in section 2, we interpret changes in surface potential temperature Θ (zs) as a superposition of 9 changes in the background surface potential temperature Θ0 (zs) and the surface potential temperature perturbation ∆Θ (zs) (Plates 2a-c). The latter may be interpreted loosely as a changed surface ‘inversion’ strength, although they are not equal. Also included in Plates 2a-c are the contours of 25 and 50% sea ice cover anomalies (dashed lines). Because sea ice is prescribed in RACMO/ANT1 as a layer of constant thickness of 1 m, this change can also be interpreted as a sea ice thickness change. Plate 2a shows a general background cooling over East Antarctica under AAO positive polarity conditions. A notable feature is the zonally variable pattern in coastal East Antarctica which is clearly linked to changes in the shape and position of the storm centres: limited/enhanced cooling is found in areas where geostrophic wind anomalies have a northerly/southerly component. As a result, the strongest background cooling (up to 5 K) is found in Enderby Land, Wilkes Land/Victoria Land and Marie Byrd Land (although the change is not significant in the latter region). In between we find areas with little or only weak background cooling. In strong contrast to the background cooling in East Antarctica is the strong and significant warming in the Weddell Sea, over the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica. The pressure changes in Figure 4b show a pronounced northerly circulation anomaly over these regions, representing the weakening of cold air advection from the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf, the atmospheric branch of the Weddell Gyre. The strong sensitivity of the Weddell Gyre to the AAO is interesting given its hemispheric (and possibly global) climatic importance through the formation of sea ice and deep water in the Weddell Sea. Plate 2b presents the change of surface potential temperature perturbation ∆Θ (zs). The interpretation of Plate 2b is straightforward for regions where sea ice cover has changed in a significant fashion: decreased/increased sea ice cover effectively enhances/reduces upward heat transport with associated increase/decrease of the surface temperature deficit. Over open sea, where surface temperature remains unchanged, the change in ∆Θ (zs) must balance the change in Θ0 (zs). This effect is especially strong near the sea ice edge, in regions with significant changes in cold air outflow. Over the land ice, turbulence is mainly generated by wind shear. A decrease in near-surface wind speed as depicted in Plate 1b therefore leads to a drop in surface temperature via a diminished turbulent heat transport toward the surface. As a result, areas in East Antarctica where surface layer wind speed has decreased in a significant fashion (Dronning Maud Land west of the main ice divide, Enderby Land and Wilkes Land) show an LOW RES 10 PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE FOSSILIFEROURS ERRATICS Plate 1b. Difference in July surface layer wind vector (arrows) and wind speed (colours): AAO positive polarity minus AAO negative polarity. Hatches indicate area where confidence is greater than 95%. LOW RES VAN DEN BROEKE AND VAN LIPZIG: AAO AND ANTARCTIC CLIMATE 11 Plate 2a. Difference in July surface background potential temperature Θ0(zs): AAO positive polarity minus AAO negative polarity. 25 and 50% sea ice changes are indicated by dashed contours. Hatches indicate area where confidence is greater than 95%. LOW RES 12 PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE FOSSILIFEROURS ERRATICS Plate 2b. Difference in July surface potential temperature perturbation ∆Θ(zs): AAO positive polarity minus AAO negative polarity. 25 and 50% sea ice changes are indicated by dashed contours. Hatches indicate area where confidence is greater than 95%. LOW RES VAN DEN BROEKE AND VAN LIPZIG: AAO AND ANTARCTIC CLIMATE intensification of the surface temperature deficit (negative change in ∆Θ (zs)). Note that katabatic wind dynamics represent a negative feedback on changes in ∆Θ (zs): a stronger surface temperature deficit means a stronger katabatic wind which enhances mixing that in turn reduces the surface temperature deficit. Over the flat sea ice and ice shelves this negative feedback is largely absent so that ∆Θ (zs) changes are larger both directions. For instance, over the Antarctic Peninsula the temperature rise over the northern ice shelves is enhanced by 2–3 K through an increase in ∆Θ (zs), while the 8 K cooling over the narrow ice shelves around 0° E/W results entirely from a drop in ∆Θ . The west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula experiences a sharp increase of ∆Θ (zs) as a direct result of the advection of warm and cloudy air under conditions of positive polarity AAO, resulting in a sharp increase of cloudiness and precipitation [Van Lipzig and Van den Broeke, 2002]. Plate 2c shows the total surface potential temperature change, i.e. the summation of Plates 2a and 2b. East Antarctic cooling is largely restricted to the grounded ice. An exception is the sea ice around 0° E/W where a southerly circulation anomaly leads to a decreased cloud cover (not shown) and an enhanced surface temperature deficit. The very pronounced warming over the Antarctic Peninsula extends over the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf and parts of West Antarctica and gradually decreases eastward and westward over the sea ice. The strongest warming of up to 8 K is found over areas that have experienced both significant background warming and a decreased surface inversion strength, i.e. on the Ronne Ice Shelf west of Berkner Island and large parts of the Antarctic Peninsula including the northern ice shelves. This is an interesting result in the light of the recent rapid disintegration of the northern Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. The present picture is consistent with earlier findings that the temperature in the Antarctic Peninsula region is very sensitive to circulation changes [Marshall and King, 1998; and Van den Broeke, 2000]. RACMO/ANT1 output has now clarified this pattern for July, and future studies will address changes in the full annual cycle. 4. CONCLUSIONS Output of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO/ANT1 is used to study the influence of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on the wintertime (July) near surface climate of Antarctica. In spite of the relatively short time series (14 years, 1980–1993), strong 13 and significant signals are found. When the AAO polarity is positive (high AAO index), we find that: • surface pressure is significantly below average over Antarctica. This enhances near-surface westerlies north of the circumpolar pressure trough and opposes easterlies south of it, but with important regional deviations; • the south Atlantic storm centre is shifted 20° eastward while the Pacific storm centre has deepened; this causes a northerly geostrophic wind anomaly over the Antarctic Peninsula and the Weddell Sea basin, leading to a complete shut-down of the atmospheric branch of the Weddell Gyre. This causes a very pronounced surface warming of up to 8 K over the Antarctic Peninsula, the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf and the Weddell Sea; • in response to intensified westerlies, the katabatic easterlies over West and East Antarctica become weaker, but not uniformly so: dipole patterns of surface layer wind speed change are found at the main ridges of the ice sheets and smaller scale features like Berkner Island in response to the change of large scale pressure gradient relative to the direction of the surface slope; • significant surface cooling (up to 8 K) occurs in East Antarctica, which can be explained in terms of decreased meridional advection, lowering the background temperature over Antarctica, and decreased sensible heat exchange with the surface, increasing the magnitude of the surface temperature deficit; • over the ice shelves, the surface temperature response is amplified in absence of the negative feedback that katabatic winds have on surface temperature changes. The most striking result of this study is the complete shut-down of the cold-pump in the Weddell Sea under conditions of AAO positive polarity, leading to anomalous warming in the Antarctic Peninsula and Weddell Sea. This must strongly reduce the formation of sea ice and deep bottom water in the Weddell Sea, which are known to influence climate on the hemispheric and possibly global scale. The amplified warming at the surface of the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves is interesting in the light of the recent rapid disintegration of some these ice shelves [Vaughan and Doake, 1996]. LOW RES 14 PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE FOSSILIFEROURS ERRATICS Plate 2c. Difference in July surface potential temperature Θ(zs): AAO positive polarity minus AAO negative polarity. 25 and 50% sea ice changes are indicated by dashed contours. Hatches indicate area where confidence is greater than 95%. LOW RES VAN DEN BROEKE AND VAN LIPZIG: AAO AND ANTARCTIC CLIMATE Acknowledgments. Erik van Meijgaard is thanked for supervising the runs with RACMO/ANT. This is EPICA publication no. XX. This work is a contribution to the “European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica” (EPICA), a joint ESF (European Science Foundation)/EC scientific programme, funded by the European Commission and by national contributions from Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. REFERENCES Allison, I., G. Wendler and U. Radok, Climatology of the East Antarctic ice sheet (100°E to 140°E) derived from automatic weather stations, J. Geophys. Res. 98(D5), 8815-8823, 1993. Bromwich, D. H., Satellite analyses of Antarctic katabatic wind behavior, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 70, 738-749, 1989. Burnett, A. W. and A. R. McNicoll, Interannual variations in the southern hemisphere winter circumpolar vortex: relationships with the semiannual oscillation. J. Climate 13, 991999, 2000. Connolley, W. M., The Antarctic temperature inversion, Int. J. Climatol. 16, 1333-1342, 1996. Connolley, W. M., Variability in annual mean circulation in southern high latitudes, Climate Dynamics 13, 745-756, 1997. Doran, P. T., J. C. Priscu, W. B. Lyons, J. E. Walsh, A. G. Fountain, D. M. McKnight, D. L. Moorhead, R. A. Virginia, D. H. Wall, G. D. Clow, C. H. Fritsen, C. P. McKay and A. N. Parsons, Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response. Nature 415, 517 – 520, 2002. Enomoto, H. and A. Ohmura, The influence of atmospheric half-yearly cycle on the sea ice extent in the Antarctic, J. Geophys. Res. 95 (C6), 9497-9511, 1990. Harangozo, S. A., Atmospheric meridional circulation impacts on contrasting winter sea ice extent in two years in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, Tellus 49A, 388-400, 1997. Heinemann, G., On the streakiness of katabatic wind signatures on high-resolution AVHRR satellite images: results from the aircraft-based experiment KABEG, Polarforschung 66, 1930, 2000. King, J. C. and S. A. Harangozo, Climate change in the western Antarctic Pensinsula since 1945: observations and possible causes, Ann. Glac. 27, 571-575, 1998. King, J. C., Control of near-surface winds over an Antarctic ice shelf, J. Geophys Res. 98, 12949-12953, 1993. Kottmeier, C., Shallow gravity flows over the Ekström Ice Shelf, Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 35, 1-20, 1986. Marshall, G. J. and J. C. King, Southern hemisphere circulation anomalies associated with extreme Antarctic Peninsula winter temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 2437-2440, 1998. Parish, T. R. and D. H Bromwich, The surface windfield over the Antarctic ice sheets, Nature 328, 51-54, 1987. 15 Parish, T. R. and J. J. Cassano, Forcing of the wintertime Antarctic boundary layer winds from the NCEP–NCAR global reanalysis, J. Appl. Meteorol. 40(4), 810-821, 2001. Scambos, T. A., C. Hulbe, M. Fahnestock and J. Bohlander, The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula, J. Glaciol. 154, 516-530, 2000. Schwerdtfeger, W., The effect of the Antarctic peninsula on the temperature regime of the Weddell sea, Mon. Wea. Rev. 103, 45-51, 1975. Simmonds, I. and D. J. Walland, Decadal and centennial variability of the southern semiannual oscillation simulated in the GFDL coupled GCM, Climate Dynamics 14, 45-53, 1998. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Climate 13, 1000-1016, 2000. Thompson, D. W. J. and S. Solomon, Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296, 895-899, 2002. Van den Broeke, M. R., J.-G. Winther, E. Isaksson, J. F. Pinglot, L. Karlöf, T. Eiken and L. Conrads, Climate variables along a traverse line in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, J. Glaciol. 45, 295-302, 1999. Van den Broeke, M. R., The semi-annual oscillation and Antarctic climate, part 5: Impact on the annual temperature cycle as derived from NCEP re-analysis, Climate Dynamics 16, 369-377, 2000a. Van den Broeke, M. R., On the interpretation of Antarctic temperature time series, J. Climate 13, 3885-3889, 2000b. Van den Broeke, M. R., N. P. M. van Lipzig and E. van Meijgaard, Momentum budget of the East Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer: results of a regional climate model, J. Atmos. Sci. 59(21), 3117-3129, 2002. Van den Broeke, M. R. and N. P. M. van Lipzig, Factors controlling the near surface wind field in Antarctica, Mon. Wea. Rev. in press, 2002. Van Lipzig, N. P. M., E. van Meijgaard and J. Oerlemans, Evaluation of a regional atmospheric climate model for January 1993, using in situ measurements from the Antarctic, Ann. Glaciol 27, 507-514, 1998. Van Lipzig, N. P. M., E. van Meijgaard and J. Oerlemans, Evaluation of a regional atmospheric model using measurements of surface heat exchange processes from a site in Antarctica, Mon. Wea. Rev. 127, 1994-2011, 1999. Van Lipzig, N. P. M., The surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet: a study with a regional atmospheric model, PhD thesis, Utrecht University, 1999 [can be obtained from IMAU, PO Box 80005, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands]. Van Lipzig, N. P. M. and M. R. van den Broeke, A model study on the relation between atmospheric boundary-layer dynamics and poleward atmospheric moisture transport in Antarctica, Tellus 54A, 497-511, 2002. Van Loon, H., The half-yearly oscillation in the middle and high southern latitudes and the coreless winter, J. Atmos. Sci. 24, 472-486, 1967. LOW RES 16 PALEOBIOLOGY AND PALEOENVIRONMENTS OF EOSCENE FOSSILIFEROURS ERRATICS Vaughan, D. G. and C. S. M. Doake, Recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula, Nature 379, 328-331, 1996. Walland, D. J. and I. Simmonds, Baroclinicity, meridional temperature gradient and the southern semiannual oscillation, J. Climate 12, 3376-3382, 1999. Michiel R. van den Broeke, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, P.O. Box 80005, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands. Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Rd., CB3 0ET Cambridge, UK.
Similar documents
Meteorological modelling in polar regions
• the stable boundary layer • snow surface physics • sea ice treatment
More information