ADR

Transcription

ADR

Pinkowski & Company
Metropolitan Memphis Hotel & Lodging Association
HotelNewsNow.com
Smith Travel Research
February 10, 2012
Memphis, Tennessee
Lodging Industry Update
Program
 Introduction
 Mary Calorio
 Chuck Pinkowski
 Regional Economic Update
 Larry Jensen – President & CEO Commercial Advisors
 Trends Presentation
 Jeff Higley – HotelNewsNow/STR Global
 Chuck Pinkowski – Pinkowski & Company
 Keynote Speaker
 Arnold Perl– Glankler Brown
Introductions
Mary Calorio – President MMH&LA
General Manager – Heartbreak Hotel
Thank You To Our Sponsors
The Industry's Premier
Conference For Hotel Owners
Atlanta Marriott Marquis
March 18-20, 2012
Larry Jensen
President & CEO
Commercial Advisors
National & Regional – Jeff Higley
Local Markets – Chuck Pinkowski
US Lodging Market
Jeff Higley
HotelNewsNow.com, a division of Smith Travel Research, Inc.
ALIS attendees finally have it right
Jeff Higley 26 January 2012
The only way to describe the sentiment at the first major investment
conference of the year is “reserved optimism,” as attendees like some
aspects of what’s going on but know challenges lie ahead.
Memphis Lodging
Update
February 10, 2012
Jeff Higley
VP/Editorial Director
STR/HotelNewsNow.com
11
www.hotelnewsnow.com
Click on “Hotel Data Presentations”
12
This is what I hear…
• Reserved optimism rules the day. A quiet
confidence permeates the industry.
• Footsteps in the night? All indications are
that company execs are happy with their
companies, but uncertainty in economy
has them worried about when the other
shoe will drop…a “black swan” event.
13
• Politics has never permeated the
industry’s rhetoric like it has now.
• Supply pipeline is the silver lining for the
industry as new construction remains in
check. The biggest item on executives’
wish lists? They want the values of their
properties to increase while keeping the
values of properties for sale in check.
14
• No shock to this group: There IS funding
available under the right circumstances,
even up to 70% LTV.
• Operations costs will continue to rise.
Insurance, utilities, etc. On the horizon:
President Obama’s healthcare plan.
15
• Stronger summer than expected. Most
roomnights sold EVER in July. August and
September were records, too.
• But what the...? Industry fundamentals
are strong. Record demand and
increasing rate plus limited supply
growth = uncertainty?
16
2011: The World Recovered
Markets with Positive REVPAR % Change
Americas:
194 of 212
Europe:
84 of 98
AsiaPac:
38 of 47
Middle East / Africa:
19 of 33
*RevPAR in local currency
Source: STR Global
17
Major Global Markets Did Well in 2011
Market
OCC
ADR
RevPAR
Beijing
Berlin
Dubai
Hong Kong
London
Mexico City
Moscow
Sao Paulo
Sydney
Tokyo
Toronto
8.2
0.9
7.0
2.4
-0.1
7.9
2.7
2.9
-0.1
-8.5
-0.6
5.8
-2.0
3.4
23.1
8.5
2.9
5.4
17.7
5.2
-6.7
0.6
14.6
-1.1
10.7
26.0
8.4
10.9
8.3
21.1
5.1
-14.7
0.0
*2011 % Change, ADR & RevPAR in local currency
Source: STR Global
18
Total US Review
19
Supply / Demand Imbalance Drove 2011 Results
% Change
Hotels
Room Supply*
Room Demand*
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
Room Revenue*
Full Year 2011 Total US Results
* All Time High
51K (4.8 million rooms)
1.8 bn
0.6%
1.06 bn
5.0%
60.1%
4.4%
$102
3.7%
$61
8.2%
$108 bn
8.8%
20
Preliminary January 2012data
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Upper Midscale
Midscale
Economy
Occupancy
+5% to +7%
+3% to +5%
+3% to +9%
+4% to +6%
+2% to +4%
Flat to +2%
RevPAR
+8% to +10%
+6% to +8%
+7% to +9%
+7% to +9%
+3% to +5%
+4% to +6%
TOTAL U.S.
+3% to +5%
+7% to +9%
21
An overall look seems positive
December YTD 2011
22
ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases
Sept ‘08
$108
Dec ‘11
$102
-10%
+4.6%
19 Months
Apr ‘10
$97
*Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA 2007 - 2011
19 Months
23
Room Supply/Demand gap
Monthly Year-Over-Year 2003 – December 2011
24
Occupancy/ADR trends
Monthly Year-Over-Year 2003 – December 2011
25
Inflation Adjusted ADRs Well Out Of Reach
$117
2007 ADR Grown By CPI
$107
$101
2000 ADR Grown By CPI
$85
$85
$104
$107
$109
2013F
* Total US, ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F
2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011 – 2013 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
26
Chain Scale / Location
Review
27
2011 STR Chain Scales
(Selected chains from each segment)
•
Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, W Hotels, InterContinental
•
Upper Upscale – Hyatt, Embassy Suites, Hilton, Marriott, Sheraton
•
Upscale – Hyatt Place, Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard, Hotel Indigo
•
Upper Midscale – Best Western PLUS/Premier, Hampton Inn
•
Midscale – Best Western, Country Inn & Suites, La Quinta Inn
•
Economy – America’s Best Inn, Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn
Complete list is at www.HotelNewsNow.com/chainscales.pdf
28
Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, 2011
Midscale Supply Change Caused by Best Western Re-classification
29
Early Recovery: OCC % > ADR %
*OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, 2011
30
Actual occupancy 2011
31
Upper End Sells 7 out 10 Rooms Every Night
*Absolute OCC %, by Scale, 2007 & 2011
32
Demand Recovery Strongest At Upper End
*Total Room Demand in Millions, by Combined Scales, 2007 & 2011
33
No Surprise Here: Room Revenue Grows At Upper End As Well
*Total Room Revenue in Billions $, by Combined Scales, 2007 / 2011
34
ADR Growth Is Strong – But Lags Peak in Most Segments
*Absolute ADR $, by Scale, 2007 / 2011
35
RevPAR & Room Revenue up
December 2011 YTD
36
Location Segments
Supply/Demand Percent Change
December 2011 YTD
37
Location Segments show signs of life
Occupancy / ADR Percent Change
December 2011 YTD
38
Location Segments actual ADR
Average Daily Rate ($)
December 2011 YTD
39
Location Segments: strong numbers
RevPAR/ Room Revenue Percent Change
December 2011 YTD
40
Top Markets Review
41
Top 25 Markets
Occupancy Percent Change
December 2011 YTD
42
Top 25 Markets
ADR Percent Change
December 2011 YTD
43
Top 25 Markets
RevPAR Percent Change
December 2011 YTD
44
Top 25 Markets
Room Supply Percent Change
December 2011 YTD
45
Top 25 Markets
Room Demand Percent Change
December 2011 YTD
46
Top 25 Markets
Occupancy Percent
December 2011 YTD
47
Top 25 Markets
ADR
December 2011 YTD
48
Top 25 Markets
RevPAR ($)
December 2011 YTD
49
2011 Room Demand (in millions) Exceeds 2007 In All Areas
* Select Geographies; Room Demand in Millions; 12 MMA; 2007, 2009, 2011
50
2007 ADRs Still Elusive
* Select Geographies; ADR $; 2007, 2009, 2011
51
Transient/Group Review
52
Total U.S. transient demand ahead of the pace ….
Millions
2007 Through December 2011
NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier
independent hotels).
53
... but not in transient ADR
54
Total U.S. group demand on par
55
Surprise? No. Group ADR lags
56
The big picture
US Transient vs. Group Monthly ADR ($)
January 2007 – December 2011
57
Channel Study Highlights
58
OTA Revenue: 8% Of Revenue, 88% Of Our Conversation
*Total rooms revenue in billions $, by channel, June YTD 2009 - 2011
59
Wide ADR Variance Between OTA and GDS Channel
*ADR $, by channel, June YTD 2009 - 2011
60
Wide ADR Variance By OTA Business Model
*ADR $, by OTA channel, June YTD 2009 - 2011
61
2012 / 2013 Forecast
62
Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012
Phase
Dec 2011
Dec 2010
Dec 2007
In Construction
“Planned Pipeline”
Active Pipeline
54
254
308
52
265
317
211
204
415
*Total US Pipeline, in ‘000s of rooms, by Phase by Year
Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases
Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge
63
Total United States
Forecast 2012 / 2013
Key Performance Indicator % Change
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
Supply
0.8%
1.4%
Demand
1.3%
2.0%
Occupancy
0.5%
0.5%
ADR
3.8%
4.4%
RevPAR
4.3%
4.9%
64
Total United States
Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook
2012F by Chain Scale
Occupancy
(% chg)
ADR
(% chg)
RevPAR
(%chg)
Luxury
2.7%
4.7%
7.4%
Upper Upscale
0.1%
3.5%
3.6%
Upscale
2.0%
4.5%
6.6%
Upper Midscale
-0.3%
3.7%
3.4%
Midscale
1.0%
0.8%
1.8%
Economy
0.7%
2.4%
3.1%
Independent
-0.3%
3.4%
3.1%
Total United States
0.5%
3.8%
4.3%
Chain Scale
65
2012 Year End RevPAR Forecast
(as of 3rd QTR 2011 forecast)
-5% to 0%
0% to 5%
5% to 10%
Nashville
St Louis
Los Angeles-Long Beach
Miami-Hialeah
Philadelphia
Detroit
Anaheim-Santa Ana
Boston
Orlando
Minneapolis-St Paul
Washington DC
New Orleans
Atlanta
San Diego
Norfolk-Virginia Beach
Oahu Island
10% to 15%
Tampa-St Petersburg
Seattle
Phoenix
Houston
Dallas
San Francisco-San Mateo
Chicago
New York
Denver
66
67
What Is On The Horizon For 2012
Memphis Lodging Market
How good was 2011 vs 2010
Every Day
317 more rooms sold
Revenue up $25,530
For the Year
115,628 more rooms sold
$9,318,549 more in revenue
Most Rooms Ever Sold
76,780 more than the previous
high in 2007
Revenue
Still $23.3 million below 2007
high
ADR
$8.43 below 2007 peak
Key Statistics
YE 2011
YE 2010
% Change
Room Supply (Daily)
22,278
22,962
-1.4%
Room Demand
(Daily)
13,122
12,805
2.5%
Room Revenue
(Daily)
$993,616
$968,087
2.6%
Occupancy
58.0%
55.8%
4.0%
ADR
$75.72
$75.60
0.2%
RevPAR
$42.91
$42.16
4.1%
Key Statistics
YE 2011
22,278
YE 2005
20,285
% Change
9.8%
241
213
13.2%
13,122
12,863
2.0%
$993,616
$889,622
11.7%
Occ
ADR
58.0%
$75.72
63.4%
$69.16
-8.5%
9.5%
RevPAR
$43.91
$43.86
0.1%
Room Supply (Daily)
# Properties
Room Demand
(Daily)
Room Revenue
(Daily)
Memphis Lodging Market vs Total U.S.
% Change 2011 vs 2010
Memphis
U.S.
Room Supply
-1.4%
0.6%
Room Demand
2.5%
5.0%
Room Revenue
2.6%
8.8%
Occ
4.0%
4.4%
ADR
0.2%
3.7%
RevPAR
4.1%
8.2%
Memphis Comparison
Change in Change in
Supply
Demand
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
Memphis
58.0%
$75.22
$43.91
-1.4%
2.5%
U.S.
60.1%
$101.64
$61.06
0.6%
5.0%
East South
Central
55.7%
$77.35
$43.07
0.4%
3.4%
Top 25
66.6%
$123.59
$82.34
0.8%
5.4%
All Other
Markets
57.1%
$89.90
$51.31
0.5%
4.8%
% Change Key Indicators
Average Rate
ADR 12 Month Moving AVG
$8.52
Occupancy
RevPAR
RevPAR 12 Month Moving AVG
$9.63
$7.18
ADR Comparison
Occupancy Comparison
Average Daily Change - Supply/Demand
Supply & Demand % Change
ADR & Demand % Change
ADR & Occ % Change
Rooms Available/Rooms Sold 12 month moving average
Most room sold
4,850,424
7/2006
4,789,394
12/31/2011
12 Month Moving Avg Revenue
-6.4%
6.9%
Day of Week
Day of Week - Occupancy
Day of Week - ADR
Segmentation-% Change 2011 vs 2010
Transient
Group
Contract
Demand
-0.3%
6.3%
26.0%
Revenue
0.7%
5.7%
32.2%
16.1% segment participation/16 properties YE 2011
Segmentation
Transient
Group
Contract
% Total
65.7%
30.2%
4.1%
ADR
$77.79
$76.81
$35.42
16.1% segment participation
Segmentation-Monthly 2011
Segmentation Change 2007-2011
Transient
Group
Contract
2011
65.7%
30.2%
4.1%
2010
67.4%
29.0%
3.4%
2009
59.6%
36.6%
3.6%
2008
56.0%
40.4%
3.6%
2007
53.1%
42.9%
3.9%
Geographic Regions
Year End 2011 by Geographic Region
ADR
Occ
RevPAR
# Rooms
# Properties
West Memphis
$57.86
43.5%
$25.19
1,529
26
Poplar/East
$79.26
66.3%
$52.53
4,913
44
East/I-40
$57.81
55.3%
$31.97
3,449
42
Airport/South
$54.05
49.9%
$26.95
4,614
61
Downtown/Midtown
$113.16
62.9%
$71.16
4,057
41
Mississippi
$75.19
64.7%
$48.66
2,681
37
Millington/North/Other
$59.49
48.3%
$29.17
1,035
19
Citywide
$75.72
58.0%
$43.91
22,278
270
# Rooms
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
# Properties
# Rooms
Less than 75
54.4%
$59.46
$32.37
113
5,164
75-149
61.1%
$71.30
$42.82
108
11,925
150-299
53.7%
$68.21
$47.37
16
3,401
300-500
n/a
n/a
n/a
3
1,188
500 +
n/a
n/a
n/a
1
600
ADR/Occ % Change 2011 vs 2010
Supply/Demand % Change 2011 vs 2010
Geographic Demand Growth
Room Nights Sold
2005
2011
Downtown
825,789
931,231
West Memphis
291,007
242,998
Poplar/East
1,172,358
1,222,677
East/I-40
775,971
696,078
Mississippi
444,488
633,428
1,026,870
877,762
157,378
185,220
4,694,861
4,789,394
Airport/South
Millington/North
Total
Geographic Occ Trend
Geographic ADR Trend
ADR Trend Comparison
Memphis/U.S.
4.8%
-10.1%
-3.9%
Occupancy Trend Comparison
Memphis/U.S.
-12.9%
-16.9%
10.1%
Chain Scales
Chain Scales – Major Change in 2011
Discontinuing MidScale w F&B and Midscale w/o F&B
Introducing Upper Midscale and Midscale
Luxury
AKA
Andaz
Colony
Conrad
Doyle Collection
Edition
Fairmont
Firmdale
Four Seasons
Grand Hyatt
Hotel Monaco
Hotel Palomar
InterContinental
Jumeirah
JW Marriott
Langham
Loews
Luxury Collection
Mandarin Oriental
Mokara
Park Hyatt
Preferred
Ritz-Carlton
RockResorts
Rosewood
Sofitel
St Regis
Taj
The Peninsula
The Prince
The Tides
Trump International
Collection
Viceroy
W Hotel
Waldorf=Astoria
Upper Upscale
Affinia
Autograph Collection
Camino Real
Club Quarters
Dolce
Doral
Embassy Suites
Gaylord
Hard Rock
Helmsley Hotel
Hilton
Hyatt
Joie De Vivre
Kimpton
Le Meridien
Marriott
Marriott Conference Ctr
Marriott Executive Apart
Millennium
New Otani
Nikko
Omni
Pan Pacific
Red Carnation
Renaissance
Sheraton Hotel
Starhotels
Swissotel
Westin
Upscale
Adam`s Mark
aloft Hotel
Amerisuites
Ascend
Aston Hotel
Caesars Entertainment
Cambria Suites
Canad Inn
Celebrity Resorts
Club Med
Coast Hotel
Courtyard
Crowne Plaza
Doubletree
Element
Fitzpatrick Hotel
Four Points
Great Wolf Lodge
Hilton Garden Inn
Homewood Suites
Hotel Indigo
Hotel Sierra
Hyatt Place
Hyatt Summerfield Suites
Jolly
Little America
Melia
Miyako
Novotel
NYLO Hotel
O’Callaghan
Outrigger
Park Plaza
Prince Hotel
Radisson
Residence Inn
Room Mate
Sonesta Hotel
Springhill Suites
Staybridge Suites
Woodfin Hotel
Wyndham
Upper Midscale
3 Palms
Ayres
Best Western Plus
Best Western Premier
Chase Suites
Clarion
Comfort Inn
Comfort Suites
Doubletree Club
Drury Inn
Drury Inn & Suites
Drury Plaza Hotel
Drury Suites
Fairfield Inn
Golden Tulip
Hampton Inn
Hampton Inn Suites
Holiday Inn
Holiday Inn Express
Holiday Inn Select
Home2 Suites
Isle of Capri
Key West Inns & Suites
Lexington
Ohana
Park Inn
Phoenix Inn
Ramada Plaza
Scanticon
Silver Cloud
Sunspree Resorts
TownePlace Suites
Westmark
Wyndham Garden Hotel
Xanterra
Midscale
America`s Best Suites
AmericInn
Baymont Inns & Suites
Best Western
Cabot Lodge
Candlewood Suites
ClubHouse
Country Inn & Suites
Crossings by GrandStay
Crystal Inn
Drury Lodge
GrandStay Residential Suites
GuestHouse Inn
Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham
Heartland Inn
Howard Johnson
InnSuites Hotel
Lakeview
La Quinta Inn
La Quinta Inn & Suites
Lees Inn Of America
Mainstay Suites
Quality Inn / Suites
Ramada / Limited
Red Lion
Rode Inn
Settle Inn
Shilo Inn
Signature Inn
Sleep Inn
Vagabond Inn
Vista
Wingate By Wyndham
Economy
1st Interstate Inn
Affordable Suites
America`s Best Inn
Americas Best Value Inn
Budget Host
Budget Suites of America
Budgetel
Country Hearth Inn
Crestwood Suites
Crossland Suites
Days Inn
Downtowner Inn
Econo Lodge
Extended Stay America
Extended Stay Deluxe
E-Z 8
Family Inn
Good Nite Inn
Great Western
Homegate
Homestead
Home-Towne Suites
Howard Johnson Express
Inns of America
InTown Suites
Jameson Inn
Key West Inn
Knights Inn
Master Hosts Inns
Masters Inn
Microtel Inn
Motel 6
National 9
Passport Inn
Pear Tree Inn
Red Carpet Inn
Red Roof Inn
Roadstar Inn
Rodeway Inn
Savannah Suites
Scottish Inn
Select Inn
Shoney`s Inn
Studio 6
Studio Plus
Suburban Extended
Stay
Sun Suites
Super 8
Thriftlodge
Travelodge
Value Place
Wellesley Inn
Year End by Chain Scale
ADR
Occ
RevPAR
# Rooms
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Upper Upscale
$115.15
66.0%
$75.99
1,747
5
Upscale
$96.72
69.4%
$67.11
3,269
25
Upper Midscale
$87.79
58.1%
$51.05
4,796
49
Midscale
$68.61
50.8%
$34.84
2,161
28
Economy
$39.46
57.2%
22.68
5,472
66
Luxury
# Properties
% Change in Demand
% Change in ADR
Chain Scales
Occ Comparison YE 2011
Chain Scales
ADR Comparison YE 2011
Chain Scales
Occ & ADR % Change 2011
Chain Scales
Supply & Demand % Change 2011
Chain Scale
Room Supply Growth
Chain Scale
Room Demand Growth
CVB Competitive Cities
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
Birmingham
59.1%
$77.19
$39.92
Little Rock
55.6%
$73.85
$40.12
Tampa/St Pete
60.5%
$93.82
$50.44
Atlanta
59.2%
$82.58
$47.59
Louisville
55.3%
$87.71
$45.81
New Orleans
64.2%
$122.15
$74.70
Charlotte
61.3%
$81.97
$45.36
Knoxville
52.8%
$73.94
$36.69
Memphis
58.0%
$75.72
$42.16
Nashville
62.1%
$93.33
$50.52
Chattanooga
62.3%
$75.43
$42.60
CVB Competitive Cities
Actual Change in
RevPAR 2010-2011
Birmingham
$5.91
Little Rock
$0.92
Tampa St Pete
$6.28
Atlanta
$1.32
Louisville
$2.65
New Orleans
$3.68
Charlotte
$4.88
Knoxville
$2.35
Memphis
$1.75
Nashville
$7.49
Chattanooga
$4.36
% Change 2011
Occ
ADR
RevPAR
Supply
Demand
Birmingham
9.1
5.2
14.8
-1.2
7.9
Little Rock
1.6
0.7
2.3
1.3
2.9
Tampa/St Pete
9.7
2.5
12.5
-0.4
9.2
Atlanta
3.1
-0.4
2.8
-0.2
2.9
Louisville
2.9
2.8
5.8
-2.0
0.8
New Orleans
-0.4
5.3
4.9
1.1
0.8
Charlotte
7.1
3.4
10.8
0.1
7.2
Knoxville
3.8
2.5
6.4
-0.2
3.6
Memphis
4.0
0.2
4.1
-1.4
2.5
Nashville
6.9
7.4
14.8
4.2
11.3
Chattanooga
3.4
6.5
10.2
-0.9
2.5
Highest Lowest
# Properties
# Rooms
Avg Size
Birmingham
166
16,516
99
Little Rock
143
12,047
84
Tampa/St Pete
443
44,303
100
Atlanta
784
93,634
119
Louisville
172
19,663
114
New Orleans
260
36,611
141
Charlotte
289
31,802
110
Knoxville
347
30,390
88
Memphis
241
22,278
92
Nashville
316
35,727
113
Chattanooga
110
9,462
86
What Does the Future Hold
2012 YE Projection
 Occupancy – 60% (+3.5%)
 ADR - $78 (+3.0%)
NLRB and the Lodging Industry
Arnold E. Perl
Glankler Brown PLLC
Presented by
Metropolitan Memphis Hotel & Lodging Association
and
Pinkowski & Company
Memphis Cook Convention Center
August 21 - 22, 2012

ADR

Transcription

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