Poland- shopping centres + retail streets

Transcription

POLAND of retail opportunities
SHOPPING CENTERS & RETAIL STREETS
Radosław Knap
Deputy General Manager
Polish Council of Shopping Centres
@confimprese #RetailBusinessPolonia
POLISH COUNCIL OF SHOPPING CENTRES
TRUSTED PARTNER AND ADVISOR FOR THE RETAIL SECTOR
The Polish Council of Shopping Centers is the biggest organization in Poland that gathers
companies related to the shopping centres and high streets industry.
The Polish Council of Shopping Centres (PRCH) is a not-for-profit association that represents more
than 200 businesses operating on the commercial real estate market.
We are the Polish national partner of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), and were
established in Poland in 2003.
11
YEARS OF ACTIVITY
INVESTORS, DEVELOPERS, SHOPPING
CENTRE MANAGERS, RETAILERS,
ADVISORY AND SERVICE COMPANIES
200+
MEMBER COMPANIES
7000+
CONTACTS IN THE RETAIL SECTOR
70%
SHOPPING CENTRES MANAGED BY ASSOCIATED COMPANIES
3000
SHOPS OWNED BY RETAILERS AFFILIATED WITH PRCH
THE SCOPE OF ACTIVITIES
POLAND – ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
LEADING THE EURO-ECONOMIC GROWTH
Poland was the only European country
to have GDP growth in 2009 crisis
Donald Tusk –
Polish Prime
Minister (2007-14),
European President
since 2014
BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE |
4
POLAND – ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
POLAND – KEY FACTS AND FIGURES
CPI
5,0%
4,0%
3,0%
2,0%
2016(f)
2017(f)
2016(f)
2017(f)
2015(f)
2014(f)
2013
2012
2011
0,0%
2010
1,0%
Unemployment rate
15,0%
12,5%
10,0%
7,5%
5,0%
2015(f)
2014(f)
0,0%
2013
2,5%
2012
 1.6% at the end of 2013, the result for Q1 2014 shows 3.4% GDP
growth y-o-y with positive outlook for the next few years ranging from
3.2-3.8%.
 Inflation (CPI) remains at the low level, below 1%. Despite the pick-up
in growth, CPI is likely to remain muted in the near term, not moving
above 2% until 2015.
 Labour market is strengthening, which is reflected in a sustained
decrease of unemployment rate (12% in June 2014 vs. 13.4% in
December 2013) , while real earnings growth picked up noticeably.
GDP
6,0%
2011
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
GDP growth and CPI
2010
 Population 38,5 mio
 Central location in the same time zone as major European markets
 Stable economy, avoiding recession during the last crisis, developing at
the high rate
 Diversified structure of industry in terms of sectors
 Highly skilled and educated labor force – 500 public and private
universities and 2 million students
 Attractive FDI destination – presence of many automotive, high-tech,
white goods producers as well as business services providers
 BPO/SSC sector continues to expand driving office market growth in
regional cities
 The largest beneficiary of the EU structural funds, receiving nearly 20%
of the total sum for the period 2007-2013. The 2014-2020 budget
allocates € 82.5bn in Poland, 23% growth versus the last period.
Source: GUS, (f) Consensus Forecast,
BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE | 5
SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLAND
426 SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLAND:
381
35
10
33
Traditional Shopping Centres
Retail Parks
Outlet Centres
under construction (over 563,000 sq m GLA)
Source: PRCH Retail Research Forum, 1 half of 2014
POLAND RETAIL MARKET
 Total modern retail stock in Poland: 12.2 million sqm of GLA
 Total shopping centre stock: 10 million sqm of GLA in 426
shopping centres
 Average size of shopping centre: 22,400 sqm
 Shopping centre density in Poland: 262 sqm of GLA per 1,000
inhabitants
SUPPLY AND PIPELINE
The supply of retail space in Poland in 1993-2014
(forecast)
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
17% total
of retail sales
700 Euro
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
H1 2014
2014 prognoza
per capita
main agglomerations
cities 200-400k
cities 100-200k
towns (less than 100k residents)
ca. 370 000
employed in
SC
ca. 2,5% of
total
employment
in Poland
Source: PRCH RRF, H1.2014
PRCH TURNOVER INDEX
for shopping centres
Av. Gross Sales Turnover in EUR/1 sqm GLA in months
400,00 EUR
350,00 EUR
300,00 EUR
250,00 EUR
2012
200,00 EUR
2013
150,00 EUR
2014(Q4est)
100,00 EUR
50,00 EUR
0,00 EUR
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
SC SALES
 Once there are about 5% of new shopping centre
supply annually, the avarage sales from „the 84
group” decreses on similar level abouth -3,5% YoY
 Shopping centres sales stay on the stable level of
about 3000 – 2820 EUR / 1 sqm GLA annually
9
10
11
12
Av. Annual Sales Turnover
EUR/1 sqm GLA
 The PRCH Turnover Index measures the avarage sales
turnover from 84 shopping centres from Poland
8
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2012
2013
2014(Q4est)
8
Manufaktura, Łódź
MAJOR AGGLOMERATIONS – SHOPPING CENTRES
Stary Browar, Poznań
Bonarka, Kraków
PRCH Retail Research Forum, H1.2014
Złote Tarasy, Warszawa
Vacancy rate by city, H1. 2014
VACANCY
 only 3% vacancy rate in shopping centers in 15
largest cities
4,0%
3,5%
3,0%
2,5%
2,0%
 Lowest rates in Warsaw, Szczecin, Wrocław, SIlesia
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
RENTS
 In Warsaw average rents in prime shopping centers
are at the highest level in Poland, which reflects the
strongest demand from tenants generating high
turnovers.
 High street retailers are primarily focused on service
sector (banking, catering) or upscale fashion,
recording rents of €80-90 per sqm per month in
prime locations in Warsaw.
Source: PRCH Retail Research Forum, H1.2014
Prime rents by size of unit in selected Polish agglomerations
€/sqm/mth
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0-50 sqm
Silesia
50-150 sqm
Warsaw
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
150-500 sqm
Poznań
Kraków
No. of
open SC
GLA per 1,000
inhabitants
Warsaw
Krakow
43
567,4
Arkadia, Galeria Mokotów, Złote Tarasy
15
536,0
Bonarka, Galeria Krakowska, Galeria Bronowice
Łódź
14
512,1
Manufaktura, Port Łódź, Galeria Łódzka
19
761,5
Magnolia Park, PH Bielany, Pasaż Grunwaldzki,
18
757,3
Stary Browar, Galeria Malta, Poznań City Center
25
670,8
Riviera, Galeria Bałtycka, Klif Gdynia
43
493,6
Silesia City Centre, Galeria Katowicka, Forum Gliwice
11
494,5
Kaskada, Galaxy, Atrium Molo
Agglomeration
Wrocław
Poznań
Tricity: Gdansk,
Gdynia & Sopot
Katowice (Upper Silesia)
Szczecin
Major shopping centres
MAJOR AGGLOMERATIONS – SHOPPING CENTRES
PRCH Retail Research Forum, H1.2014
SOME OF THE BRANDS
IN THE POLISH SHOPPING CENTRES
THE MOST POPULAR POLISH BRANDS
INTERNATIONAL BRANDS
NEW BRANDS
ABSENT ON POLISH MARKET
SOME OF THE BRANDS
IN THE POLISH SHOPPING CENTRES
HIGH STREETS IN MAJOR CITIES
More details you will
find here: [PDF]
RETAIL STREETS
Retail streets mainly in the 10 largest cities, Most known are in
Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Łódź
Poles still prefer to visit shopping centres and spent more time
there but more retailers and consumers tend to consider the
streets again
HIGH STREETS IN WARSAW
HIGH STREETS IN WARSAW ?
THE W ORLD’S 10 MOST EXPENSIVE RETAIL LOCATIONS IN
EACH COUNTRY
RA
RAN COUNT CITY
LOCATION
€/SQ.
US$/
%
NK
K
RY
M/YE
SQ. CHANG
AR
FT/Y
E
201 2013
EAR
4
IN
LOCAL
MEASU
RE
1
-*
USA
New
Upper Fifth
29,82 3,500 13.3
York
Avenue
2
2
1
Hong
Hong
Causeway
23,30 2,735 -6.8
Kong
Kong
Bay
7
(China)
3
3
France
Paris
Avenue des 13,25 1,556 0.0
Champs
5
Élysées
4
4
UK
London New Bond
10,36 1,216 4.2
Street
1
5
8
Australia Sydney Pitt Street
8,658 1,016 25.0
Mall
6
6
Italy
Milan
Via
8,500 998
13.3
Montenapo
leone
7
5
Japan
Tokyo
Ginza
8,120 953
6.9
8
9
South
Seoul
Myeongdon 7,942 932
17.6
Korea
g
9
7
Switzerl
Zurich
Bahnhofstra 7,456 875
1.1
and
sse
10
12
Russia
Mosco
Stoleshniko 4,749 557
20.0
w
v
44
45
Poland
Warsa Nowy Swiat 1,020 120
2.4
w
Source: Cushman & Wakefield (Lists only one location in each country – full ranking
contained in the report)
HIGH STREETS IN MAJOR CITIES
„HOW OFTEN DO YOU SHOP HERE?”
0
shopping centers
retail streets
dicounts and
supermarkets
small stores and
passages
10
20
30
40
Everyday
Few times a week
Once a week
Few times a month
Once a month
small markets
Warsaw, Nowy Świat
Internet
Less than once a
month
Do not shop here
other places
HIGH STREETS IN WARSAW
HOW MUCH TIME A CONSUMER SPEND THERE?
RETAIL MIX IN WARSAW
ReDI Trade Fair, RETAIL DESTINATION INITIATIVE
June 10-11, 2015 | National Stadium | Warsaw
10-11.06.2015 | NATIONAL STADIUM| WARSAW| REDI.ORG.PL
ReDI 2015 – WHY IS IT WORTH TO PARTICIPATE?
The ReDI Trade Fair, Retail Destination Initiative, is an European meeting place for representatives
of towns and cities, property developers and retail chains that have a development strategy for the
region of Central and Eastern Europe. The next edition of the ReDI Trade Fair will be held on 10th
and 11th of June 2015, at the National Stadium in Warsaw.
ReDI IS:
 A venue for presenting new shopping centre projects in Poland and other CEE countries
 A centre for supporting expansion of retail chains interested in investing in Poland and other CEE
countries
 A platform for supporting and developing shopping streets in Poland
 A venue for presenting new services and technologies that support business
 2 days of intensive business meetings on exhibition stands
 Presentations and panel discussions at the conference centre
 Networking among top management representatives
 Tools supporting business development
ReDI TRADE FAIR CATCHMENT AREA:
POLAND
CZECH REPUBLIC
SLOVAKIA
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
ROMANIA
HUNGARY
FIRST EDITION OF THE ReDI TRADE FAIR IN NUMBERS:
1400+
PARTICIPANTS
550+
INVESTORS, DEVELOPERS,
ASSET AND PROPERTY MANAGERS
350+
RETAILERS
50+
EXHIBITORS FROM POLAND AND
OTHER CEE COUNTRIES
50+
MEDIA
20+
CITY COUNCIL AND LOCAL
GOVERNMENTS AUTHORITIES
5%
23%
30%
10%
14%
18%
ReDI 2014 –EXHIBITORS & SPONSORS
PATRONAGE CITIES
PATRONAGE ORGANIZATIONS
10-11.06.2015 | STADION NARODOWY| WARSZAWA| REDI.ORG.PL
PATRONAT MEDIA
10-11.06.2015 | STADION NARODOWY| WARSZAWA| REDI.ORG.PL
THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
CONTACT:
Radosław Knap
Deputy General Manager
[email protected]
+ 48 512 402 291
Nowogrodzka 50/54
00-695 Warsaw, Poland
[email protected]
+48 22 629 23 81
www.prch.org.pl
10-11.06.2015 | NATIONAL STADIUM | WARSAW | REDI.ORG.PL

Poland- shopping centres + retail streets

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