Poland 2012 - Bank Austria

Real
Estate
Country Facts
“
042012
Property investors
favour Poland
– but for how long?
”
Real Estate
Country Facts
Imprint:
Publisher and media owner: UniCredit Bank Austria AG
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Editor: Bank Austria Real Estate Consulting & Investment, Karla Schestauber, Tel. +43 (0)50505-54784
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Dated: 15 March 2012
A joint publication of Bank Austria Real Estate, UniCredit Research and Immobilien Rating GmbH (IRG).
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2 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012
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Supervisory Board: Erich Hampel, Chairman of the
Supervisory Board; Paolo Fiorentino, Deputy Chairman of
the Supervisory Board; Members of the Supervisory Board:
Candido Fois, Karl Guha, Jean Pierre Mustier, Roberto
Nicastro, Vittorio Ogliengo, Franz Rauch, Karl Samstag,
Wolfgang Sprißler, Ernst Theimer. Delegated by the
Employees’ Council: Wolfgang Heinzl, Chairman of the
Employees’ Council; Adolf Lehner, First Deputy Chairman of
the Employees’ Council; Emmerich Perl, Sedond Deputy
Chairman of the Employees’ Council; Barbara Wiedernig,
Third Deputy Chairman of the Employees’ Council;
Members of the Employees’ Council: Josef Reichl, Robert
Traunwieser.
Management Board: Willibald Cernko, Chairman, Chief
Executive Officer (CEO); Gianni Franco Papa, Deputy
Chairman (CEE Banking); Members of the Management
Board: Massimiliano Fossati (CRO Risk Management),
Francesco Giordano (CFO Finance), Rainer Hauser (Family &
SME Banking), Dieter Hengl (Corporate & Investment
Banking), Doris Tomanek (Human Resources Austria & CEE),
Robert Zadrazil (Private Banking).
Objective of the medium: Information of the customer
Real Estate
Country Facts
Polish economy reaps rewards of EU accession
Facts and figures
Poland is a parliamentary republic in Central Europe. It borders
the Baltic Sea and Russia to the north, Ukraine and Belarus to
the east, the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south, and
Germany to the west. The country has an area of 312,685 km2
and its population of 38 million is the fourth largest in Central
and Eastern Europe (CEE) after Russia, Turkey and Ukraine.
Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached EUR 340 bn in
2011, and GDP per capita was EUR 8,904. It became a member of the European Union on 1 May 2004.
Latest country ratings
Moody’s
A2
Outlook stable
S&P
A–
Outlook stable
Fitch
A–
Outlook stable
Real GDP (2008=100)
Poland
Germany
Greece
Italy
110.0
Hungary
France
105.0
Poland’s entry into the EU in 2004 played a significant role in supporting medium-term economic growth prospects. It brought about
rapid growth in trade with the EU countries (exports grew at an
average annual rate of about 18 % 2004 – 2008), while substantially supporting investment in Poland by increasing foreign direct
investment and through the inflow of transfer payments from the EU
(in the period 2004 – 2008 average annual investment growth was
about 11 %).
In 2009, when the European economy experienced a deep recession, Poland – as the only EU country – managed to sustain economic growth (1.6 %). The next two years brought a revival, during
which Poland’s GDP growth reached 4.3 % in 2011. In our opinion,
this year will see a clear slowdown of economic growth in Poland (to
around 3 %) following the faltering economic activity of major trading partners (including Germany) and due to the weaker growth of
domestic investment.
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: UniCredit Research
A rapidly growing negative trade balance in 2007 – 2008 led to a
sharp rise in Poland’s current account deficit (close to 6 – 7 % of
GDP). Due to the economic slowdown and the sharp depreciation
of the zloty in 2009, the deficit in subsequent years narrowed
Macroeconomic data and forecasts
NGDP (EUR bn)
GDP per capita (EUR)
Real GDP (%-chg)
CPI (avg.%-chg)
Unemployment rate (%)
Exchange rate EUR / PLN, avg.
Current account / GDP (%)
FDI / GDP (%)
General government balance / GDP (%)
Public debt / BIP (%)
Foreign debt / GDP (%)
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
310.2
8,129
1.6
3.5
11.9
4.3
– 3.9
3.0
– 7.3
50.9
59.4
354.3
9,275
3.9
2.6
12.4
4.0
– 4.6
1.9
– 7.9
52.8
65.9
340.1
8,904
4.3
4.3
12.5
4.1
– 4.1
2.7
– 5.6
53.9
64.6
389.7
10,203
3.1
3.3
13.1
4.2
– 3.1
2.5
– 3.2
52.7
60.6
435.9
11,410
3.5
3.1
13.2
4.0
– 3.8
2.2
– 3.1
50.7
56.3
Source: UniCredit Research / f … forecasts / e … estimate
Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012 | 3
Real Estate
Country Facts
significantly to below 5 % of GDP. In 2012, weaker economic growth
should contribute towards a further narrowing of the current
account deficit (according to our estimates to about 3.1 % of GDP
from about 4.1 % of GDP in 2011).
Current account balance (% GDP)
0.0
series of fiscal tightening measures taken so far by the government
will probably be sufficient to reduce the general government deficit
to around 3 % of GDP in 2012. If the government’s deficit reduction
plan succeeds, general government debt, after reaching approxi-
PLN / EUR exchange rate
5.0
4.8
– 1.0
4.6
– 2.0
4.4
– 3.0
4.2
4.0
– 4.0
3.8
– 5.0
3.6
3.4
– 6.0
3.2
– 7.0
Source: UniCredit Research
Since early 2004 the National Bank of Poland (NBP) has been
targeting an inflation rate of 2.5 % with an acceptable fluctuation
band of + / –1 percentage point. The NBP maintains interest rates
in a range that is consistent with the inflation target by influencing
the level of short-term interest rates on the money market.
Throughout 2011, CPI inflation remained above the upper limit
of the inflation target (3.5 %), but in 2012 we expect it to return
to around the NBP target, which will be supported by both the
slowdown in domestic demand and the gradual appreciation of
the zloty.
01.01.12
01.07.11
01.01.11
01.07.10
2010 2011s 2012p 2013p
01.01.10
2009
01.07.09
2008
01.01.09
2007
01.07.08
2006
01.01.08
3.0
2005
Source: Datastream
General Govemment balance (% GDP)
0,0
– 1,0
– 2,0
– 3,0
– 4,0
– 5,0
– 6,0
Since 2000, the zloty has been under a fully floating exchange rate
regime and has not been subject to any restrictions for a decade.
However, the NBP reserves the right to intervene on the currency
market to achieve the inflation target, and in 2011 the central bank
intervened on the FX market in order to prevent excessive depreciation of the zloty.
One of the main challenges for the Polish economy is the reduction
of the excessive fiscal imbalance that has persisted since 2008
(in 2010 the general government deficit reached 7.9 % of GDP).
Currently Poland remains under the excessive deficit procedure,
imposed by the European Commission in 2009. In our opinion, a
4 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012
– 7,0
– 8,0
– 9,0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 2011s 2012p 2013p
Source: UniCredit Research
mately 54 % of GDP in 2011, should decrease in subsequent years
and there should be no risk of breaching the Maastricht public debt
criterion of 60 % of GDP.
Real Estate
Country Facts
International investors on the lookout
for core real estate
Poland was the only country in the EU to achieve economic
growth in the 2009 crisis. Real GDP rose by 1.6 %, compared
with an average drop of 4.3 % for the European Union as a
whole. This attracted the attention of international property investors. In addition the degree of development and depth of the
Polish property markets was also an argument in favour of investing in the country. Foreign investment in Poland in 2010 and
2011 was considerable: according to CBRE, investments in commercial property in CEE amounted to EUR 11.2bn last year –
approximately double the 2010 level – with Poland accounting
for some 30 % of the total. This made Poland the region’s most
attractive market for investors in search of secure core investments. In contrast, Russia, which also saw a jump in investment
volumes, was mainly the market of choice for opportunistic local
investors with a significantly larger appetite for risk.
Prime yields down sharply
Office segment: prime yields
Q4 2011
Frankfurt
Vienna
Milan
Warsaw
Prague
Bratislava
Budapest
Istanbul
Bucharest
Zagreb
Moscow
Sofia
Belgrade
Kiev
%
qoq change (bp)
5.00
5.20
5.25
6.25
6.50
7.25
7.25
7.75
8.25
8.30
8.75
9.35
9.50
13.00
0
–5
0
0
0
0
0
0
– 25
0
0
0
0
0
Source: CBRE
With buyers' interest so high, yields have fallen considerably.
Prime yields in the office segment in Warsaw stood at 6.25 % at
the end of the fourth quarter of 2011 – the lowest level in CEE.
The scope for further compression would now appear to have
been exhausted. There are wide spreads between yields on core
and and non-core properties, and investments in higher yielding,
opportunistic real estate could become increasingly attractive if
moves to further deescalate the euro zone crisis are successful
and the economy begins to pick up again.
Although country risk as reflected in five-year credit default swap
(CDS) spreads has increased as a result of the euro crisis, the
CEE property investment by country 2011
picture is still brighter than during the 2008 – 09 global economic
and financial downturn. Poland’s CDS spread of around 170 basis
points (bp) is higher than those of the Czech Republic (around 120
bp) and Austria (around 160bp), but considerably lower than the
spreads of Slovakia and Hungary.
Banks’ scaling back commercial real estate
lending in CEE
Poland’s commercial property market is benefiting from the willingness of most international banks – some of which have beaten a
retreat from the riskier CEE markets – to keep on providing funds.
CDS spread development (5-year)
bp
Slovakia
800
Russia
Poland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Slovakia
Romania
Other
Poland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Austria
700
600
500
400
300
200
Source: CBRE
01.01.12
01.07.11
01.01.11
01.07.10
01.01.10
01.07.09
01.01.09
01.07.08
01.01.08
01.07.07
0
01.01.07
100
Source: Datastream
Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012 | 5
Real Estate
Country Facts
The financial sector has been hit hard by a combination of the eurozone debt crisis, the new Basel III framework and the tighter capital
requirements introduced by the European Banking Authority (EBA).
Banks’ refinancing costs have increased, while the appetite for risk
has dropped. The CDS spreads of European banks are an indicator of
the distortion in the market – in spite of their recent decline, spreads
are still close to the highs of the financial crisis in 2009.
Although the European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates
low and the 3M EURIBOR is below the 1 % mark, rising bank liquidity costs have in some cases pushed up the cost of borrowing.
The financing of investments, which can partly be refinanced using
mortgage bonds, enjoys an advantage here, but risk and cost
factors mean that the chances of securing funds for developments
have dropped in general.
Euopean Banks’ CDS spreads (5-year)
Poland came a creditable third in a recent Ernst & Young ranking of
the attractiveness of European real estate locations in 2012. But the
point in the real estate cycle at which investors should move into
the Polish market is crucial. Experience shows that investors who
buy properties immediately after a crisis are more successful than
those who make their move at or near the peak of the cycle.
Investors in commercial real estate should also bear the indirect exchange rate risks in mind, even though rents in Poland are invoiced
in euro. Since it peaked in July 2008, the zloty has lost some 30 %
of its value against the euro, slipping by 15 % in the second half of
2011 alone. However, the improvement of euro zone risk which led
to a growing appeal of carry trades, have helped to shore up the
zloty significantly.
Theoretical property cycle
bp
Strong competition between banks
Relative weak position of risk departments
High LTVs
High investment volumes
Plenty of new developments are startetd
400
350
300
200
150
100
time
Bank financing
is easier to get
Financing conditions
are less conservative
01.01.12
01.07.11
01.01.11
01.07.10
01.01.10
01.07.09
01.01.09
Source: Datastream
Bank financing is difficult to get
Relative strong position of risk departments
Low LTVs
Distressed properties are coming to the market
Investment volumes are low
Hardly any new developments
Source: Bank Austria, Real Estate Research
Relative attractivenes of European property
investment by country 2012
Source: Ernst & Young
6 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
Source: Datastream
01.01.12
3.0
01.07.11
0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %
4.4
01.01.11
Spain
Austria
France
Netherlands
Russia
Sweden
Poland
Switzerland
Germany
4.6
01.07.10
UK
4.8
01.01.10
Belgium
5.0
01.07.09
less attractive
no comment
01.01.09
attractive
neutral
01.07.08
very attractive
PLN / EUR exchange rate
01.01.08
01.07.08
01.01.08
01.07.07
01.01.07
50
0
Banks act more reluctantly
Financing conditions get more conservative
Allowances for depreciation are increasing
Rents in EUR /month
250
Strong competition between banks
Relative weak position of risk departments
High LTVs
High investment volumes
Plenty of new developments are startetd
Real Estate
Country Facts
Office property in Poland: hot spot Warsaw,
but many interesting alternative locations
International investors continue to focus on office property in
Warsaw: the market is considered to be stable, and has very low
vacancy rates. In 2011 many major deals highlighted the attractiveness of the Warsaw office market.
Despite investors’ strong interest in Warsaw, it should be noted
that Poland has numerous other populous cities, also with considerable office property markets. The most significant of these
regional centres are Krakow, Wroclaw, Poznan and the Tri-City
(Trójmiasto) conurbation consisting of Gdansk, Gdynia and Sopot,
as well as Katowice and Lodz.
According to an IRG survey, Warsaw currently has just under
3.6 million m² of modern office space. Over one-third of Warsaw’s
existing office space is located in the city centre, while the majority
of the office developments are outside the central area. The most
important location for offices outside the city centre is in the
Mokotow district.
When comparing office space per capita, Warsaw is more or less on
a par with Prague and slightly ahead of Budapest, but still lags
Western European cities by a considerable margin.
Office space per capita (2011)
However, the office sector is not developing at the same pace in
all these cities, so properties need to be very carefully analysed
before any investment decision is reached. While demand for new
office space in Warsaw has over the past few years generally remained consistently strong enough to absorb the annual increase,
it cannot automatically be assumed that new office space elsewhere will immediately be taken up.
These uncertainties have often led international players to see
these other markets as too small and uninteresting, with the result
that regional office property developers have become predominant
outside the Warsaw area. They are better able to gauge the level
of demand accurately, and to adapt their projects to local requirements.
m² per capita
Zürich
Geneva
Frankfurt
Munich
Milan
Vienna
Bratislava
Prague
Warsaw
Budapest
Bucharest
Sofia
Moscow
Zagreb
Belgrade
Istanbul
27.63
23.14
17.09
16.49
9.14
6.10
3.36
2.23
2.09
1.82
1.26
1.16
1.12
0.82
0.32
0.22
Source: IRG
Warsaw office property market 2000–2012
Million m2
Over the past few years the amount of new office construction in
Warsaw was relatively high, but in 2011 the figure fell back to
approximately 120,000 m² of additional offices. For 2012 the
forecasts predict between 250,000 and 300,000 m² of new office
space again. And there are still more than enough projects in the
pipeline – numerous speculative projects got underway last year.
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Source: CBRE / IRG
2012(f)
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0.0
New lettings of office space reached impressive heights in 2011.
Nearly 575,000 m² of office space were let in Warsaw by the end
of the year, which is the highest amount recorded to date. Approximately one third of the space let represented lease extensions and
renegotiated rental agreements.
Because of continuing high demand for office space, the vacancy
rate in Warsaw was once again very low in 2011. At 6.7 %, Warsaw
Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012 | 7
Real Estate
Country Facts
Office space scheduled for completion in 2012 or later
(selection)
Total usable space (m²)
PLAC UNII
Mokotow Nova
Libra BC
Green Corner
Senator
Nimbus
Ambassador
Oliva Point / Tower
Katowickie Centrum Biznesu
Centrum Metropol
Aurus
41,000
40,000
30,000
26,000
25,000
20,000
16,000
24,000
18,000
13,000
10,000
Office vacancy rate in Europe (%) Q4 2011
Status
City
under construction
completed
under construction
under construction
under construction
under construction
under construction
under construction
being completed
planning stage
under construction
Warsaw
Warsaw
Warsaw
Warsaw
Warsaw
Warsaw
Warsaw
Gdansk
Katowice
Wroclaw
Lodz
25
20
15
10
5
0
Dublin
Budapest
Amsterdam
Bucharest
Kiev
Moscow
Prague
Lissabon
Brussels
Istanbul
Madrid
Stockholm
Berlin
Rom
Copenhagen
Oslo
Warsaw
Vienna
London West End
Paris
Office project
Source: IRG
Source: IRG
New construction and take-up CEE 2002–2011
New construction
Take-up
CEE vancancy rate (excl. EE)
1.5
18.0
prices have fallen significantly. At the end of 2011 top office rents
in Warsaw were around EUR 25 / m² per month.
16.0
14.0
Million m2
10.0
8.0
0.5
6.0
Vacancy rate (%)
12.0
1.0
In general, price levels are lower outside Poland’s capital. Top office
rents in Krakow, Wroclaw, Poznan and Tri-City are about EUR 15 –
16 / m² per month, and in Katowice and Lodz slightly lower, at
approximately EUR 14 / m² per month.
4.0
2.0
0.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.0
Prime office rents: Warsaw 2007– 2011
EUR /m² /month
35
Source: CBRE / IRG
30
25
had one of the lowest vacancy rates for office space in Europe. The
vacancy rates in the other Polish cities vary widely. The office markets in Wroclaw and Tri-City show similarly low vacancy rates in
Krakow and Poznan the vacancy rate was slightly higher, while the
markets in Katowice and Lodz showed significantly higher vacancy
rates.
20
15
10
5
0
2007
Prime segment booming
The financial and economic crisis led to a downward correction of
office rents in Poland as well. In 2007, before the crisis, top rents in
Warsaw were in excess of EUR 30 / m² per month; since then rental
8 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012
Source: IRG
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real Estate
Country Facts
Retail properties also on the radar of
international investors
The relatively crisis-proof Polish economy has helped to stabilise
wage levels, which in turn has kept private consumption buoyant.
With 38 million inhabitants, the country has the largest population of
any of the eastern European EU member states. Around 1.7 million
people live in the capital Warsaw, and there are a number of cities
with populations of over 200,000. In addition to these major centres,
investors have been focusing on smaller towns for some time now.
New shopping centres are springing up around the country, and several first-generation developments now require renovation and modernisation in order to hold their own in an increasingly competitive
market.
Ten largest retail centres in Poland
Name
Lettable area (m²)
Opened
City
103,000
96,000
90,000
90,000
86,000
80,700
78,000
74,500
73,000
70,000
2004
2010
2006
2009
2005
2001
1998
2000
2002
2002
Warsaw
Lodz
Lodz
Krakow
Katowice
Warsaw
Tri-City
Warsaw
Warsaw
Kielce
Arkadia shopping centre
IKEA Port Lodz retail park
Manufaktura shopping centre
Bonarka City shopping centre
Silesia City Center
Park Handlowy Tar-gowek
Matarnia Retail Park
Galeria Mokotow
Wola Park shopping centre
Galeria Echo
Source: BulwienGesa, operator information
At 225 m² per 1,000 inhabitants, the density of retail space in Poland
is below the western European average. According to MB Research,
in 2011 the Poles’ per capita purchasing power of EUR 6,077 was
also significantly lower than the European average of EUR 11,577.
Purchasing power in 2011 (EUR per capita)
Retail space density vs. purchasing power
10,500
Warsaw
10,000
9,500
9,000
8,500
8,000
Poznań
Tri-City
Kraków
Upper Silesia
7,500
Wrocław
Szczecin
7,000
Łódź
6,500
6,000
300
Although construction is under way on several large shopping
centres and retail parks, almost three-quarters of the space due to
be added in 2012 is accounted for by small and medium-sized
developments with lettable space of under 40,000 m². Due to the
limited catchment areas of the minor towns and cities, these smallscale retail properties serve as neighbourhood shopping outlets and
are better suited to consumers’ needs.
400
500
600
700
Retail space per 1,000 inhabitants
800
900
Source: BulwienGesa, MB Research
Figures from Jones Lang LaSalle show that Poland has a stock of
some 7.6 million m² of shopping centre space and around 1 million m²
of retail park space. In 2011, 550,000 m² of retail space was added.
About 700,000 m² of retail space is currently under construction.
The growing popularity of smaller towns and cities with investors is
reflected in the fact that close to two-thirds of that space is being
built in locations with less than 200,000 inhabitants. As more and
more small-town retail developments are completed, investors will
find it increasingly difficult to identify locations with an undersupply
of retail space.
The country’s demographic and economic development is making
Poland an attractive market for international retail chains. Big name
luxury brands are thin on the ground on the premium shopping
streets in Poland’s major cities, and numerous international retailers
as yet unrepresented in the country are planning to establish outlets. The limited amount of space in the main shopping boulevards
means that many such retailers are turning to shopping centre
locations. However, most of the established centres now have long
waiting lists, a point which has frustrated the expansion strategies
of many companies. International chains such as GAP, Desigual,
Toy“R”Us, Foot Locker, LC Waikiki and Jula have recently opened
their first outlets in Poland.
Eastern Europe’s early movers were quick to gain a foothold in Warsaw’s retail market, so the focal point for new retail developments
soon enlarged to other large cities. Poland’s largest retail locations
are situated in Warsaw and seven other major urban conurbations.
Warsaw
Warsaw is Poland’s biggest retail centre. Its 1.7 million inhabitants
have an annual per capita purchasing power of EUR 9,807 – 60 %
higher than the national average. Around 2.5 million people live in
the greater Warsaw area. The city has some 1.1 million m² of shopping centre space, as well as about 350,000 m² of retail park
space.
Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012 | 9
Real Estate
Country Facts
Warsaw’s largest retail outlets in terms of lettable space are the
103,000 m² Arkadia shopping centre (Poland’s biggest); Park
Handlowy Targowek retail park (80,700 m²); Galeria Mokotow shopping centre (74,500 m²); Wola Park shopping centre (73,000 m²);
Centrum Krakowska retail park (66,400 m²); and Zlote Tarasy
(63,500 m²). In 2011, only 10,000 m² of new space was added
with the opening of the VitkAc shopping centre (also known as Wolf
Bracka), which offers high-end brands such as Gucci, Bottega
Venata and Lanvin. The lack of suitable development sites and the
high plot prices have put the brakes on large-scale retail projects in
central Warsaw.
The 44,000 m² Auchan shopping centre in Lomianki is scheduled
for completion this year, and the 14,000 m² Annopol factory outlet
centre is also due to open its doors in 2012. Plac Unii, a mixed-use
office and shopping centre complex is currently under construction,
and 15,500 m² of lettable space in the location’s City Gallery will
come onto the market in 2013. The Galeria Tesco Kabaty shopping
centre, with around 45,000 m² of lettable space, is still in the planning phase. Expansions to the Promenada and Wola Park shopping
centres, each with 20,000 m² of space, are also planned, although
these projects are not due to be completed before 2013.
Vacancy rates at most of Warsaw’s shopping centres are around
the 1 % mark. The limited amount of space available means that
many shopping centres have waiting lists for prospective tenants.
Monthly shopping centre rents in the Polish capital are currently in
the EUR 15 – 90 / m² range, depending on the size and location of
the shop. Prime yields are around 6.25 – 6.75 %. Since the demand
for modern retail space has remained steady, we do not expect any
significant changes in rents or vacancy rates in the near future.
for completion in autumn of this year. The Galeria Katowicka shopping centre, with around 50,000 m² of lettable space, is also under
development. Completion is scheduled for 2013.
Prime monthly rents in Upper Silesia’s shopping centres are around
EUR 55 / m².
Krakow
Krakow is the capital of Malopolska Voivodeship, and a key business
and university town with a strong international reputation. It is
Poland’s second-biggest city, with a population of around 756,000,
and a total of 3 million people live within 100 km of the city.
The region’s consumers have access to some 540,000 m² of retail
space spread across 16 shopping centres and four retail parks. The
largest shopping centres are the 90,000 m² Bonarka City Center,
Galeria Krakowska with 60,000 m², and the Zakopianka shopping
centre, which offers some 59,000 m² of lettable space. The opening
of the Futura Park outlet centre and retail park in 2011 saw the
addition of 44,000 m² of retail space.
Construction of the new Auchan Bronowice shopping centre kicked
off at the start of this year, and the 46,000 m² development is
scheduled for completion in 2013. The Serenada shopping centre,
with around 40,000 m² of lettable space, is still at the planning
stage.
Krakow’s most popular high streets are Florianska and Grodzka.
Prime rents for smaller outlets in the city’s shopping centres are
around EUR 50 / m² / month, compared with EUR 75 in the high
streets.
Warsaw’s leading high streets are Nowy Swiat and the area around
Plac Trzech Krzyzy. The city offers Europe’s most reasonably priced
retail property locations, with prime rents of about EUR 90 / m².
Prime yields are currently about 7.5 %.
Tri-City (Trójmiasto)
Upper Silesia
The three cities have a stock of approximately 450,000 m² of
shopping centre and 210,000 m² of retail park space. The largest
regional retail properties are the 78,000 m² Matarnia Retail Park in
Gdansk, the Galeria Baltycka shopping centre, also in Gdansk
(around 46,000 m²), the 42,000 m² Auchan Port Rumia shopping
centre in Gdynia, and the Auchan Gdansk shopping centre with
some 40,000 m² of lettable space.
This is one of Poland’s main industrial centres, and purchasing
power is relatively high. The region includes the cities of Katowice,
Gliwice, Sosnowiec, Zabrze and Bytom. According to BulwienGesa,
the regional population of 2.8 million has access to some
875,000 m² of retail space.
Upper Silesia’s largest shopping centres are Silesia City Centre in
Katowice (86,000 m² of lettable space); M1 in Czeladz (55,000 m²);
M1 in Zabrze (48,000 m²); Forum Gliwice (43,000 m²); Arena
Gliwice (41,000m²); and 3 Stawy Katowice (40,000 m²). In 2011
some 20,000 m² was added to the Silesia City Centre, and M1 in
Zabrze was extended by around 14,000 m².
Europa Centralna Retail Park, a 67,000 m² mixed-use shopping
centre and retail park, is currently being built in Gliwice, and is due
10 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012
This region covers the three neighbouring cities of Gdansk, Gdynia
and Sopot in northern Poland, and has a total of around 746,000
inhabitants.
The initial phase of the Morski Retail Park development in Gdansk
was opened in 2011, adding 23,000 m² of lettable space. Construction work is now in progress on the expansion projects at the
Wzgorze shopping centre (45,500 m² of additional lettable space
scheduled for completion in 2013) and the Galeria Szperk retail
park (around 23,000 m²). The opening is planned for 2012. Spring
2012 will see the start of building work at Gdansk’s Galeria Neptun,
a 25,000 m² shopping centre due to open in early 2014. The
Real Estate
Country Facts
second phase of construction at the Morski Retail Park, a development of about 33,000 m², is also scheduled to begin this year.
Average vacancy rates at the region’s shopping centres are around
3 %, although some locations are being hit by stiff competition while
others report occupancy levels of 100 %. The prime rents for
small shopping centre outlets in the greater Tri-City area are around
EUR 45 / m² / month.
As large-scale, state-of-the-art shopping centres have opened,
international investors have turned their backs on shopping streets
such as Dlugi Targ in Gdansk and Swietojanska in Gdynia.
Lodz
With around 740,000 inhabitants, Lodz is another key retail
location. It lies in central Poland, only about two hours’ drive from
Warsaw.
The city offers 540,000 m² of retail space, with shopping centres
accounting for 360,000 m² and retail parks around 180,000 m².
The density of retail space is 576 m² per 1,000 inhabitants. The
largest retail centres are the 96,000 m² IKEA Port Lodz retail park,
the Manufaktura shopping centre (around 90,000 m²), the Galeria
Lodzka shopping centre (around 40,000 m²), the 38,000 m² M1
retail park, and the Tulipan (33,000 m²) and the Pasaz Lodzki
(32,000m²) shopping centres.
No large shopping centres are under construction in the city at
present, although work on the Sukcesja shopping centre with a
lettable area of around 37,000 m² is due to start this year. Prime
rents in Lodz are around EUR 40 / m² / month.
The city boasts one of the world’s longest shopping streets –
Piotrkowska ulica. It is also one of the most reasonably priced highstreet locations in any of Poland’s major cities, with prime rents of
EUR 30 / m² / month.
Wroclaw
Situated on the banks of the River Oder, Wroclaw has a population
of some 630,000. It is a major business location, with a low unemployment rate. Greater Wroclaw is home to around 1.2 million people, and the region has over 580,000 m² of retail space. No new
space was added in 2011, but the city still has the highest density
of retail space in the country – 765 m² for every 1,000 inhabitants.
scheduled for completion in late 2012. The 11,000 m² expansion
at Magnolia Park is set to be completed by the end of 2013. New
space is also being added at Pasaz Grundwaldzki, where a
12,500 m² development should be in place by this autumn.
Top rents in Wroclaw’s shopping centres range from around
EUR 45 – 50 / m² / month.
Poznan
Poznan is the capital of Wielkopolska Voivodeship, and a key traffic
hub between Berlin and Warsaw. It is a university city of some
553,000 people, and a vital industrial, retail and services centre.
Poznan is also one of the Polish host cities for this summer’s EURO
2012 football championships.
Investors took a keen interest in the city shortly after the fall of the
Iron Curtain, so the majority of shopping centre space was built before 2000.
Poznan currently has a stock of 470,000 m² of lettable shopping
centre space, with a further 125,000 m² accounted for by retail
parks. The city’s density of retail space is second only to that of
Wroclaw, at 749 m² per 1,000 inhabitants. The largest shopping
centre in Poznan, the 53,000 m² Galeria Malta, opened for business
in 2009. Other major retail locations include the M1 and the King
Cross Marcelin shopping centres, and the Centrum Franowa retail
park, each with about 46,000 m² of lettable space.
The 53,000 m² Galeria Malta was the most recent large-scale
shopping centre to open in Poznan, in 2009. No new retail space
came onto the market in 2010 or 2011, and a number of major developments were put on hold or cancelled. The 14,000 m² Galeria
MM shopping centre in the heart of Poznan is due to open in 2012.
Construction work on Glowny City Center, a 58,000 m² development, started recently. This new shopping centre is scheduled for
completion by the end of 2013. Planning for Lacina – Poznan’s
largest shopping centre, with some 98,000 m² of space – is still
ongoing, but construction could begin in the course of this year. The
development is scheduled to open in 2014. The Metropolis shopping centre project, with around 50,000 m² of lettable space, has
been put on hold, although building work could start some time this
year. Rents for smaller shopping centre outlets in Poznan are between EUR 30 – 45 / m² / month.
The Magnolia Park shopping centre is the largest retail property,
with 74,000 m² of space, followed by the Auchan Bielany retail
park (56,000 m²) and the Pasaz Grunwaldzki shopping centre
(50,000 m²).
Demand for retail space remains strong, and international retailers
such as Toys“R”Us – a relative newcomer to the market – are on
the lookout for suitable locations. Due to the limited availability of
space until completion of Glowny City Center, and steady demand,
rents and vacancy rates in the city are likely to remain stable.
Although the stock of retail space is large, further developments are
under construction. Work has begun on the mixed-use Sky Tower,
which includes around 24,000 m² of shopping centre space and is
Some international brand retailers have lost interest in the ul. Swiety
Marcin high street as the stock of shopping centre space has
grown.
Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012 | 11
Real Estate
Country Facts
Szczecin
Szczecin is the smallest of Poland’s eight metropolitan regions, with
407,000 inhabitants. It is situated in the northwest of the country,
on the German border.
The city offers about 365,000 m² of retail space, including some
295,000 m² of shopping centre space. The largest shopping centres are the Galaxy and the Galeria Kaskada, both with around
42,000 m² of lettable space. The latter opened in autumn 2011.
Only a small number of international brands have a presence in
Szczecin, although German shopping tourists are an important
source of income for the city. As a result, several foreign retailers
are currently looking for suitable properties. Planning for the
38,000 m² Aleja Slonca shopping centre is currently in progress.
As international brand retailers continue their search for suitable
outlets, rents may rise in cities where only limited growth in the
stock of retail space is expected in the next year or two. Less successful shopping centres in locations where the availability of space
is increasing more rapidly will start to feel the pinch. This is especially true for smaller towns and cities where a large amount of
space will soon come onto the market. Prime yields on shopping
centres outside Warsaw range from 6.5 – 7.25 % and are likely to
remain stable in the short term.
Selected retail developments at planning stage /
under construction
Sczeczin’s high streets are 3 Maja, Aleja Niepodleglosci and Aleja
Wyzwolenia.
Project
Prime monthly shopping centre rents are EUR 45 / m².
Atrium Felicity
Smaller Polish towns and cities
Around 60 % of the retail space currently under construction is
located in towns and cities with fewer than 200,000 inhabitants.
The largest such development is the 75,000 m² Atrium Felicity in
Lublin, which is due for completion in 2013.
However, identifying the needs of local markets is a difficult task for
foreign investors. Developers need to bear a variety of factors in
mind when assessing potential sites, such as infrastructure, socioeconomic aspects, and whether a location falls within the catchment area of a larger city.
The demographic structure and purchasing power of smaller cities
mean that retail parks and smaller local shopping centres are proving to be a successful option for retailers. Rents at retail parks are
relatively cheap, which mainly attracts low to mid-price retailers.
Poland still an attractive target for expansion
by international retailers
Poland remains an attractive destination for international retailers
looking to expand. The strong demand for premium retail space has
not flagged, and discounters and clothing retailers are thought to
be looking closely at the possibility of expanding. As consumers
become more price-conscious, discount retailers look set to enjoy
further success.
The Polish market is well served with shopping centres. However,
the acute need to revitalise some older properties is posing challenges for the operators – around a third of all shopping centre
space is more than ten years old. A number of first- and secondgeneration shopping centres are in need of reconstruction and
upgrade. Refurbishments are also not uncommon at more recently
developed properties, as the operators look to gain ground in the
face of stiffening competition.
12 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012
Lacina shopping centre
Europa Centralna shopping
centre / retail park
Poznan Glowny
City Center
Trzy Korony shopping centre
Galeria Katowicka
Auchan Bronowice
Galeria Narew
Wzgorze shopping centre
(extension)
Galeria Tesco Kabaty
Auchan Lomianki
Serenada
Siodemka shopping centre
Galeria Korona
Aleja Slonca shopping centre
Sukcesja shopping centre
Morski Retail Park (extension)
NoVa Park
Galeria Ostrovia
shopping centre
Sky Tower
Lettable
area m²
Status
approx.
98,000
approx.
74,000
approx.
67,000
approx.
58,000
approx.
57,000
approx.
50,000
approx.
46,000
approx.
46,000
approx.
45,500
approx.
45,000
approx.
44,000
approx.
40,000
approx.
40,000
approx.
39,000
approx.
38,000
approx.
35,000
approx.
33,000
approx.
32,400
approx.
36,000
approx.
24,000
planning
stage
under construction
under construction
under construction
under construction
under construction
under construction
under construction
under construction
planning
stage
under construction
planning
stage
planning
stage
under construction
planning
stage
planning
stage
planning
stage
under construction
under construction
under construction
Source: BulwienGesa, Jones Lang LaSalle, operator information
Scheduled
Opening
City
2014
Poznan
2013
Lublin
2012
Gliwice
2013
Poznan
2012
Nowy Sacz
2013
Katowice
2013
Krakow
2013
Lomza
Tri-City
(Gdynia)
2013
2013
2012
Warsaw
Lomianki /
Warsaw
2013
Krakow
2013
Elblag
2012
Kielce
2013
Szczecin
2013
Lodz
n/a
Gdansk
Gorzow
2012 Wielkopolski
Ostrow
2012 Wielkopolski
2012
Wroclaw
Real Estate
Country Facts
Logistics market: developers remain
hesitant despite strong domestic economy
The logistics market in Poland benefits both from the country’s
position as a hub for both Western and Eastern Europe, and from
the country’s large geographical size. Unlike in other Eastern European countries, the logistics market is not concentrated exclusively
in and around the capital city. Many regional centres have logistic
agglomerations as well. They are mainly in Central Poland (Lodz,
Poznan), in Silesia (Wroclaw, Katowice) and in the greater metropolitan area of Gdansk, Gdynia and Sopot (Tri-City). At the end of 2011
Poland had roughly 6.6 million m² of warehouse and logistics
space, of which approximately 40 % was in the greater Warsaw
area and the rest in regional centres.
High vacancy rates in some areas
Despite the increase in demand for warehouse and logistics space
last year, at the end of 2011 vacancy rates remained comparatively
high, particularly in and around Warsaw: in some areas they were
as high as 19 %, and for the Warsaw region as a whole the average was 16.5 %. The lowest vacancy rates in the logistics sector
were in Poznan and Katowice. In 2011 developers remained cautious about new projects; most of the completed properties were
built to suit. Consequently, very few speculative properties came
onto the market.
Rental prices stable at low level
Compared with other CEE countries, rental prices for storage and
logistics space in Poland are at the lower end of the spectrum. At
the end of 2011 the average rental prices for storage and logistics space in the greater Warsaw area were around EUR 2.75 / m²
per month. Since the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis, rents have steadily fallen. As demand is predicted to
remain stable in 2012 and projects scheduled for completion,
although slightly higher than last year, are mainly for own use,
rents should largely be stable, too.
Poland’s strong retail sector is one of the most important customers for storage and logistics space, and provided retailing
continues to thrive, this will also have beneficial effects on the
logistics market. Equally important is economic development in
the eurozone, in particular in Germany, Poland’s most important
trade partner. This year’s European Football Championship will be
a definite boon to the Polish logistics market. As a host, Poland
has significantly developed its infrastructure, including the motorway system, in preparation for the tournament.
Warehouse and logistics vacancy rates:
Warsaw 2007–2011
Average warehouse and logistics rents:
Warsaw 2007–2011
in %
EUR / m² / month
20
4.0
15
3.5
10
3.0
5
2.5
2.0
0
2007
Source: IRG
2008
2009
2010
2007
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: IRG
Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012 | 13
Real Estate
Country Facts
Residential property prices ease
The EU accession boom
Supply, demand and prices
Poland’s accession to the European Union in 2004 triggered a
genuine boom in housing prices. Taking Warsaw as an example, the
cost of an apartment increased by roughly 23 % in 2005, 28 % in
2006, 45 % in 2007 and 13 % in 2008.
Some 120,000 new housing units were completed in Poland in
2011, a 3.1 % decline compared with 2010. For the first time since
the boom year of 2007, construction permits showed an increase
of 3.7 % to around 182,000 housing units.
In 2009 the international financial crisis hit the Polish market, putting the brakes on property price madness. By the end of the year
substantial price corrections were already in evidence, disguised as
more generous discounts, or in the form of additional fixtures and
fittings.
For the sake of simplicity, the information and analysis that follows
is restricted to the six largest housing markets in Poland: Warsaw,
Krakow, Wroclaw, Tri-City, Poznan and Lodz.
Because the Polish economy proved relatively resilient in the face of
the crisis, the 13 % fall in housing prices in the 2009 – 2011 period
was considerably more moderate than elsewhere.
According to central statistical office, Poland’s housing stock at
31 December 2011 amounted to some 13.4 million dwellings with
total usable space of around 951.2 million m². Approximately twothirds of the housing stock is in towns and cities.
Compared with the EU average of 54 %, a very high proportion of
housing – 63 % – consists of multi-family residential blocks. The
39 % accounted for by high-rise apartments is also considerably
above the EU average. In spite of the privatisation of much social
housing in the 1990s, home ownership is about 76 % – below the
level in most other CEE countries.
Construction starts
Change on 2010 (%)
2,500
2,000
200,000
1,500
– 1.3
150,000
1,000
100,000
– 2.6
– 3.2
– 4.2
500
50,000
– 5.3
– 5.4
Source: GUS, IRG
14 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012
Source: REAS, IRG
Łódź
Poznań
Tri-City
Wrocław
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Krakow
0
Warsaw
Number of dwellings
The lending climate deteriorated steadily in 2011, with young families finding it especially hard to borrow. Foreign currency loans are
to all intents and purposes no longer being made, and rising inflation combined with the banks’ prevailing shortage of capital has
pushed up borrowing costs in zloty. As a result of the now more
Average price (EUR/ m²)
Permits
250,000
0
The price of residential property in Warsaw is currently somewhere
between EUR 1,300 and EUR 2,300 / m², with the average around
EUR 2,025 / m². The second-highest average of EUR 1,675 / m² is
for Krakow, Poland’s southernmost city. Wroclaw and Tri-City have
much the same prices, while the cheapest housing is in Lodz, with
an average price of EUR 930 / m².
New housing prices 2011
Completions, construction starts and permits
2002 – 2011
Completion
According to real estate agents REAS, the number of units sold in
these cities in 2011 rose by 5 % compared with 2010. The only fly
in the ointment was that the number of apartments still available
for sale increased even more. Housing prices fell.
Real Estate
Country Facts
onerous conditions of the Family on its Own Programme1, our Polish colleagues are expecting a 10 – 20 % reduction in new loans.
The final draft of the Clients Protection Act2, now awaiting passage, will also bring changes on the supply side.
Apartment sales / apartments on offer: 2011
On offer
Sales
20,000
17,500
15,000
Apartments
In 2011 around 37,500 new apartments were put on the market
in Poland’s six largest cities. This was an increase of 21 % on
2010, and only in the boom year of 2007 was this number exceeded. It is worth noting that new projects are again increasingly
concentrated on the major cities, with smaller markets showing
only very limited activities.
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
Selected large-scale housing projects
864
1,380 – 1,520
2012
Warsaw
Osiedle Przy Lesi
370
1,380 – 1,590
2013
Warsaw
Osiedle Goclawska
323
1,360 – 1,820
2013
Warsaw
Osiedle Mieszczanskie II
245
1,350
2012
Wroclaw
Osiedle Harmonia
290
1,380 – 1,640
2012
Warsaw
Zielony Zoliborz II
274
n.a.
2012
Warsaw
Centrum Poludniowe
256
1,300 – 2,820
2012
Wroclaw
Osiedle Rodzinne
260
1,030 – 1,200
2013
Krakow
Nowe Winogrady
240
1,300 – 1,450
2012
Poznan
Osiedle Eskadra
City Zen II
240
357
n.a.
n.a.
2013
2012
Warsaw
Warsaw
Source: PMR, IRG
Despite the large number of apartments sold, the total number of
apartments on offer at the end of 2011 rose by 25 %, to a record
of around 48,000 units.
Of these, 77 % were apartments that will only be completed and
available in 2012 or later. Units completed before 2011 and still
unsold represented roughly 11 %.
Given the low level of building activity in 2009, however, the increasing volume of new property on offer should not lead to a glut
in the medium term.
In the course of 2011, about 29,700 units were sold in the six
largest cities together. In the last quarter the number of transactions fell back slightly, possibly as a result of the changes in the
Family on its Own Programme. Overall sales in 2011 were still
1) The state provides first-time home buyers with a subsidy of 50 % of the interest cost in the
first eight years, but under the revised terms and conditions the eligible age and maximum purchase price have both been lowered. The programme will be completely phased out by the end
of 2012.
2) Developers will be required to provide background information, including details of competing
projects in the neighbourhood, when the apartments are put on the market. The regulations also
strengthen tenants’ rights.
Łódź
Osiedle Zielona Italia
Poznań
City
Tri-City
Completion
Wrocław
Price EUR / m²
Krakow
Number of
dwellings
Warsaw
Project
0
Source: REAS
7 % higher than in 2010, and were again moving in the direction
of the 2007 record. It should be noted that current purchases are
generally more for own use than for the purposes of investment.
The mix of apartments for sale over the course of 2011 revealed a
change in market sentiment: healthy sales in the first half of the
year encouraged many developers to raise prices slightly and offer
slightly more upmarket properties for sale, while stiffer competition in the second half brought lower prices and numerous sweeteners, such as free parking spaces and fitted kitchens.
Dreams and realities
Real estate portal Nowy Adres cooperated with Millward Brown
SMG / KRC in a survey of 1,500 households with a potential
interest in buying their own apartment: in 2011 only 6 % of those
surveyed had found their ideal home. Roughly 28 % had postponed any purchase indefinitely, principally because of high
prices, tighter lending policies or excessively high interest payments. Of the remainder, many had been forced to accept more or
less serious reductions in their original expectations: 42 % acquired the space they wanted, but had to settle for less attractive
neighbourhoods or economise on furnishings; 24 % bought
smaller apartments, or ones with fewer rooms. One of the crucial
factors in deciding which property to buy is bank lending policies:
the current trend favours smaller, more economical apartments.
More than half the buyers (about 52 %) were looking for apartments costing less than EUR 70,000, while 23 % wanted something cheaper than EUR 45,000. Roughly a third wanted apartments in the EUR 70,000 – 115,000 range, 12 % were prepared
to pay up to EUR 230,000 for a new home, and only 3 % would
accept prices higher than that.
Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012 | 15
Real Estate
Country Facts
Luxury properties
The market for luxury apartments in Poland developed in the late
1990s. The first projects were luxury apartment blocks in the
capital, Warsaw, closely followed by other cities such as Krakow,
Wroclaw, Gdynia and well-known holiday resorts such as Sopot,
Jurata, Miedzyzdroje and Zakopane.
Potential purchaser price categories (EUR ’000)
>230
115– 230
90–115
70–90
45–70
<45
Source: Novy Adres / Millword Brown SMG / KMC
16 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012
3%
12%
12%
21%
29%
23%
Poland’s luxury apartment market is a niche segment, representing
only 2.5 % of the entire residential property market. Warsaw leads
the way in this market, and roughly 26.2 % of all Polish properties
in this category are located in the capital. Krakow has the second
largest share, with 23.4 %, followed by 14.8 % in Wroclaw and
8.2 % in the Tri-City Region including Gdynia.
The current price in the capital is between EUR 2,800 and
EUR 9,500 per square metre. In the Tri-City Region (Gdansk-SopotGdynia), Wroclaw and Krakow, prices start at around EUR 2,300 / m²
and go up to EUR 7,000 / m². In Poznan and Lodz, on the other
hand, prices have stabilised at under EUR 2,300 / m² as a result of
the weakness of demand.
Outlook for 2012: supply may again outstrip
demand
The number of residential properties on the market will increase
before the Client Protection Act comes into force in 2012. Delaying
tactics on the part of purchasers in the hope of further price reductions, and the more rigorous restrictions on the subsidies provided
by the government’s Family on its Own Programme may put a
damper on demand. If the number of new properties coming onto
the market grows as rapidly in 2012 as it did in 2011, there is a
danger that the oversupply will persist.
Real Estate
Country Facts
Summary
EU accession in 2009 Poland has posted relatively
strong economic growth. In 2009, as the global financial
crisis pushed the EU into recession, Poland was the only
member state to achieve real economic growth (+1.6 %).
has around 3.6 million m2 of modern office
space – about three times the total in 2000. Another
250,000 – 300,000 m2 of space is set to be added in 2012,
and the project pipeline is well stocked.
 Since
 Warsaw
 Although
 At
 Budget
 At
 Poland
 In
real GDP may grow more slowly this year compared to last, it is still expected to reach around 3 %.
consolidation is one of the key challenges facing
Polish economic policymakers. A series of fiscal tightening
measures has been designed to cut the 2012 budget
deficit to about 3 % of GDP. This should keep the country’s
public debt below the Maastricht threshold of 60 % of GDP.
has been attractive for international property
investors. Steady economic growth combined with the
breadth and depth of the property markets have made
investing in Polish commercial real estate an attractive
option.
end-2011 top office rents stood at around EUR 25 / m2 /
month, compared with over EUR 30 in 2007.
225 m2 per 1,000 inhabitants, the density of retail
space in Poland is below the western European average.
However, according to MB Research, the Poles’ per capita
purchasing power of EUR 6,077 is also lower than the
European average of EUR 11,577.
2011, 550,000 m2 of retail space came onto the Polish
market. Around two-thirds of the 700,000 m2 of retail
space currently under construction is located in towns and
cities with fewer than 200,000 inhabitants.
 Despite
 According
to CBRE, around EUR 11.2bn was invested in
commercial property in CEE last year, with Poland accounting for some 30 % of the total.
 With
buyers' interest so high, achievable prime yields
have fallen considerably. From a cyclical point of view, the
Polish office market in Warsaw seems to converge to the
cyclical peak.
 The
markets now see the country risk associated with
Poland as lower than during the 2008 / 09 crisis. However,
investors still need to bear in mind also a certain degree of
exchange rate risk.
the increase in demand for warehouse and logistics space, at the end of 2011 vacancy rates remained
comparatively high, particularly in and around Warsaw,
where the average was 16.5 %. As a result, developers
remained cautious about new logistic projects last year,
and most of the completed properties were built to suit.
 Poland’s
housing stock at the end of 2011 amounted to
some 13.4 million dwellings with total usable space of
951.2 million m2. Some 120,000 new housing units were
completed in Poland in 2011, a fall of 3.1 % compared with
2010. However, for the first time since the boom year of
2007, construction permits showed an increase, to around
182,000 units. There is a danger that some oversupply will
persist.
Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012 | 17
Real Estate
Country Facts
Contacts:
Bank Austria
Bank Pekao SA Poland
Real Estate
Karin Schmidt-Mitscher
Tel: + 43 (0)50505-54941
[email protected]
Commercial Real Estate Finance
Marek Koziarek
Tel.: +48 22 524-5641/42
[email protected]
Günter Hofbauer
Tel: + 43 (0)50505-57488
gü[email protected]
Monika Mielecka
Tel.: +48 22 524-5640
[email protected]
Anton Höller
Tel: + 43 (0)50505-55980
anton.hö[email protected]
Piotr Kwadrans
Tel.: +48 22 524-5630
[email protected]
Gerd Hauser
Tel: +43 (0)50505-55135
[email protected]
Agnieszka Kowalska
Tel.: +48 22 524-5669
[email protected]
Bank Pekao SA
Financing Provider of the Year in Poland
Eurobuild 2011 Awards
Alexander Stichler
Tel: +43 (0)50505-55167
[email protected]
Eva Böhler
Tel: +43 (0)50505-54948
[email protected]
Authors :
Bank Austria
Immobilienrating GmbH (IRG)
Bank PeKaO
Karla Schestauber
Tel: + 43 (0)50505-54784
[email protected]
Helmut Schneider
Tel: + 43 (0)50601-51863
[email protected]
Marcin Mrowiec
Tel: +48 22 524 59 14
[email protected]
Alexander Stögbauer
Tel: + 43 (0)50601-51904
[email protected]
Doris Tomschizek
Tel: + 43 (0)50601-51871
[email protected]
18 | Real Estate Country Facts 04 / 2012