Raiford Road Site Residential and Hotel Market Analyses Carrollton

Transcription

Raiford Road: City of Carrollton
Raiford Road Site
Residential and Hotel
Market Analyses
Carrollton, TX
July 2008
Prepared for
City of Carrollton, TX
1945 E. Jackson Rd.
Carrollton, TX 75006
Prepared by
333 W. Trade Street
Suite 350
Charlotte, NC 28202
704.371.4402
920 N. Franklin
Suite 303
Chicago, IL 60610
312.643.2500
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction and Site Description..................................................................................................... 1 2. Area Description ................................................................................................................................. 3 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 2.1 DART Green Line ........................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Greenbelt Extension .................................................................................................................... 3 2.3 Highway 121 Tollway ................................................................................................................... 4 Employment ........................................................................................................................................ 5 3.1 Trends .......................................................................................................................................... 5 3.2 Employment Centers ................................................................................................................... 9 Market Rate Apartments .................................................................................................................. 13 4.1 CMA ........................................................................................................................................... 13 4.2 Demographic Trends and Forecast ........................................................................................... 13 4.3 Market Trends ............................................................................................................................ 23 Comparable Mixed-Use Apartment Communities......................................................................... 27 5.1 Comparable Summary ............................................................................................................... 27 5.2 Studio/One-bedroom ................................................................................................................. 26 5.3 Two-bedroom ............................................................................................................................. 27 5.4 Three-bedroom .......................................................................................................................... 28 5.5 Community Profiles.................................................................................................................... 28 Development Activity ....................................................................................................................... 40 6.1 Under Construction Apartments ................................................................................................ 40 6.2 Proposed Apartments ................................................................................................................ 40 Apartment Inventory and Vacancy Rate Forecast ........................................................................ 42 7.1 Rental Unit Forecast .................................................................................................................. 42 7.2 Demand and Vacancy Rate Forecast........................................................................................ 42 Apartment Product and Rent Recommendations ......................................................................... 43 8.1 Target Market ............................................................................................................................ 43 8.2 Product Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 43 8.3 Unit Mix ...................................................................................................................................... 44 8.4 Rent ........................................................................................................................................... 46 8.5 Absorption .................................................................................................................................. 49 Single-Family .................................................................................................................................... 50 9.1 CMA ........................................................................................................................................... 50 9.2 Demographic Trends ................................................................................................................. 50 9.3 Market Trends ............................................................................................................................ 58 9.4 Comparable Projects ................................................................................................................. 62 Raiford Road: City of Carrollton
9.5 Future Development Activity ...................................................................................................... 65 9.6 Site Recommendations and Forecasts...................................................................................... 65 10. Townhouses...................................................................................................................................... 69 10.1 Market Trends ............................................................................................................................ 69 10.2 Active Listings ............................................................................................................................ 70 10.3 Comparable Projects ................................................................................................................. 72 10.4 Development Activity ................................................................................................................. 76 10.5 Site Recommendations and Forecasts...................................................................................... 77 11. Senior Apartments ........................................................................................................................... 82 11.1 Demographic Trends and Forecasts ......................................................................................... 82 11.2 Comparable Communities ......................................................................................................... 86 11.3 Senior Apartment Development Activity .................................................................................... 89 11.4 Rental Site Recommendations and Forecasts .......................................................................... 89 12. Senior For-Sale Housing ................................................................................................................. 90 12.2 For-Sale Senior Site Recommendations and Forecasts ........................................................... 95 13. Hotel Market Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 96 13.1 General Market Area ................................................................................................................. 96 13.2 Hotel Market Supply and Demand Analysis ............................................................................ 105 13.3 Competitive Hotel Market ........................................................................................................ 110 13.4 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 122 14. Site Recommendations and Forecasts ........................................................................................ 126 Appendix .................................................................................................................................................. 127 Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................................ 130 List of Tables
Table 1: Private Industry Employment Trends, Dallas County, 2002-2007 ................................. 5 Table 2: Private Industry Employment Trends, Dallas MSA, 2002-2007 ..................................... 6 Table 3: Private Industry Average Annual Wage Trends, Dallas County, 2002-2007 ................. 7 Table 4: Private Industry Average Annual Wage Trends, Dallas MSA, 2002-2007 ..................... 8 Table 5: Total Inventory, Select Submarkets, 1Q 2008 ................................................................ 9 Table 6: Office Trends, Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch Submarket, 2003-2007................... 9 Table 7: Office Trends, Plano/Allen Submarket, 2003-2007 ....................................................... 11 Table 8: Office Trends, Las Colinas Submarket, 2003-2007 ...................................................... 12 Table 9: Estimated Job Growth, Select Submarkets, 2003-2007 ............................................... 12 Table 10: Population Trends by Age Cohort, CMA, 2000-2008 .................................................. 13 Table 11: Population Forecast by Age Cohort, CMA, 2008-2013 ............................................... 15 Table 12: Population Trends by Age Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ............................. 17 Table 13: Population Forecast by Age Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 .......................... 18 Table 14: Housing Unit Trends, CMA, 2000-2008 ...................................................................... 19 Table 15: Housing Unit Forecast, CMA, 2008-2013 ................................................................... 19 Table 16: Housing Unit Trends, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ................................................. 20 July 2008
Table 17: Housing Unit Forecast, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 .............................................. 20 Table 18: Median Household Income Trends, CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ........... 20 Table 19: Median Household Income Forecast, CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 ........ 21 Table 20: Household Trends by Income Cohort, CMA, 2000-2008 ............................................ 21 Table 21: Household Forecast by Income Cohort, CMA, 2008-2013 ......................................... 22 Table 22: Household Trends by Income Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ....................... 22 Table 23: Household Forecast by Income Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 .................... 23 Table 24: Net Change in Inventory and Absorption, CMA, 2003-2007 ...................................... 23 Table 25: Net Change in Inventory and Absorption, Dallas Metro Area, 2003-2007 ................. 24 Table 26: Net Absorption, CMA and Dallas Metro, 2003-2007 ................................................... 25 Table 27: Comparable Mixed-Use Apartment Communities, May 2008 .................................... 27 Table 28: Comparable Studio/One-Bedroom Apartments, May 2008 ....................................... 26 Table 29: Age and Location Adjusted Comparable Per Square Foot Rents, Studio/OneBedrooms, May 2008 .................................................................................................................. 26 Table 30: Comparable Two-Bedroom Apartments, May 2008 ................................................... 27 Table 31: Age and Location Adjusted Comparable Per Square Foot Rents, Two-Bedrooms,
May 2008 .................................................................................................................................... 27 Table 32: Comparable Three-Bedroom Apartments, May 2008 ................................................ 28 Table 33: Age and Location Adjusted Comparable Per Square Foot Rents, Three-Bedrooms,
May 2008 .................................................................................................................................... 28 Table 34: Kitchen Upgrades Prices, May 2008 .......................................................................... 33 Table 35: Apartment Communities Under Construction, CMA, June 2008 ................................. 40 Table 36: Proposed Apartment Communities, CMA, June 2008 ................................................ 40 Table 37: Apartment Development Timeline, Competitive Market Area, 2008-2012 .................. 42 Table 38: Projected Vacancy Rate, Competitive Market Area, 2008-2012 ................................. 42 Table 39: Recommended Unit Mix, Raiford Road Site, 2008 .................................................... 44 Table 40: Rent Recommendation, Raiford Road Site, 2008 ...................................................... 46 Table 41: Population Trends by Age Cohort, CMA, 2000-2008 .................................................. 50 Table 42: Population Forecast by Age Cohort, CMA, 2008-2013 ............................................... 52 Table 43: Population Trends by Age Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ............................. 53 Table 44: Population Forecast by Age Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 .......................... 53 Table 45: Housing Unit Trends, CMA, 2000-2008 ...................................................................... 54 Table 46: Housing Unit Forecast, CMA, 2008-2013 ................................................................... 54 Table 47: Housing Unit Trends, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ................................................. 55 Table 48: Housing Unit Forecast, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 .............................................. 55 Table 49: Median Household Income Trends, CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ........... 55 Table 50: Median Household Income Forecast, CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 ........ 56 Table 51: Household Trends by Income Cohort, CMA, 2000-2008 ............................................ 56 Table 52: Household Forecast by Income Cohort, CMA, 2008-2013 ......................................... 57 Table 53: Household Trends by Income Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ....................... 57 Table 54: Household Forecast by Income Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 .................... 58 Table 55: Residential Building Permits, City of Carrollton, 2003-2007 ...................................... 58 Table 56: Residential Building Permits, Dallas County, 2003-2007 ........................................... 59 Table 57: Residential Building Permits, Carrollton and Dallas County, 2003-2007 ................... 59 Table 58: Single-Family Closing Trends, MLS Area 22, 2005-2008 YTD ................................... 59 Table 59: Single-Family Closing Trends, MLS Area 10, 2005-2008 YTD ................................... 60 Table 60: Comparable Single-Family Subdivisions, Inventory and Absorption, CMA, June 2008
.................................................................................................................................................... 62 Table 61: Comparable Single-Family Subdivisions, Current Inventory and Pricing, CMA, June
2008 ............................................................................................................................................ 64 Table 62: Proposed Single-Family Developments, CMA, June 2008 ......................................... 65 Table 63: Townhouse Closings, MLS Area 10, 2008 YTD ........................................................ 69 Table 64: Townhouse Closings, MLS Area 22, 2008 YTD ........................................................ 69 July 2008
Table 65: Active Townhouse Listings, MLS Area 10, May 2008 ................................................ 70 Table 66: Active Townhouse Listings, MLS Area 22, May 2008 ................................................ 71 Table 67: Comparable Townhouse Developments, Inventory and Absorption, CMA, June 2008
.................................................................................................................................................... 72 Table 68: Comparable Townhouse Developments, Current Listings and Pricing, CMA, June
2008 ............................................................................................................................................ 74 Table 69: Proposed Townhouse Developments, CMA, June 2008 ............................................ 77 Table 70: Addison Circle Re-Sales, May 2008 ........................................................................... 79 Table 71: Senior Household Trends by Age Cohort, CMA, 2000-2008 ...................................... 82 Table 72: Senior Household Forecast by Age Cohort, CMA, 2008-2013 ................................... 82 Table 73: Senior Household Trends by Age Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ................. 83 Table 74: Senior Household Forecast by Age Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 .............. 83 Table 75: Senior Household Trends by Income Cohort, CMA, 2000-2008 ................................. 84 Table 76: Senior Household Forecast by Income Cohort, CMA, 2008-2013 .............................. 84 Table 77: Senior Household Trends by Income Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008 ............ 85 Table 78: Senior Household Forecast by Income Cohort, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013 ......... 85 Table 79: Comparable Market-Rate Senior Apartment Communities, June 2008 ..................... 86 Table 80: Comparable Senior Apartment Community Rent Ranges, June 2008 ...................... 86 Table 81: Comparable Senior Apartment Community Size Ranges, June 2008 ....................... 88 Table 82: Comparable Senior Apartment Community Rents Per Square Foot Ranges, June
2008 ............................................................................................................................................ 88 Table 83: Comparable Senior Apartment Community Amenities Included in Rent, June 2008 . 88 Table 84: Comparable For-Sale Active Adult Communities, June, 2008 ................................... 90 Table 85: Pricing at Comparable For-Sale Communities, Carrollton Site, June 2008 ............... 94 Table 86: Comparable For-Sale Community Features and Services, June 2008 ...................... 94 Table 87: Comparable Recreational Amenities, June 2008 ....................................................... 95 Table 88: Population Trends, 1990-2007 ................................................................................... 98 Table 89: Dallas-Fort Worth MSA Income and Employment, 1998-2006 ................................ 100 Table 90: Effective Buying Income, 2007 ................................................................................ 101 Table 91: Largest Employers, Carrollton, 2007 ....................................................................... 102 Table 92: Meeting Facilities, Carrollton Area ........................................................................... 103 Table 93: Carrollton Area Attractions ....................................................................................... 103 Table 94: Office Market, Carrollton, 2005-2008 ....................................................................... 104 Table 95: National Lodging Industry Annual Summary ............................................................. 105 Table 96: Carrollton Hotel Market, 2008 .................................................................................. 107 Table 97: Competitive Set Hotels ............................................................................................ 111 Table 98: Competitive Set Occupancy, Rate, and Market Segmentation, 2007 ...................... 113 Table 99: Estimated Competitive Set Segmentation ............................................................... 113 Table 100: Supply, Demand, Occupancy, ADR, and RevPar, Competitive Hotels, 2002-2008
.................................................................................................................................................. 114 Table 101: Summary of Recommendations ............................................................................. 124 Table 102: Residential Site Recommendations, Raiford Road Site, 2008 ............................... 126 List of Graphs
Graph 1: Apartment Trends, CMA, 2003-2008 1Q .................................................................... 24 Graph 2: Apartment Trends, Dallas Metro Area, 2003-2008 1Q ............................................... 25 Graph 3: Vacancy Rate Trend, CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 2004-2008 1Q............................ 26 Graph 4: Rent Trends, CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 2004-2008 1Q ......................................... 26 Graph 5: Apartment Availability, Post Addison Circle, May 2008 ............................................... 29 Graph 6: Available Units by Per Square Foot Price and Size, Post Addison Circle, May 2008 .. 30 July 2008
Graph 7: Estimated Floor Price Premiums, Post Addison Circle, May 2008 ............................. 31 Graph 8: Apartment Availability, Post Legacy, May 2008 ........................................................... 32 Graph 9: Available Units by Per Square Foot Price and Size, Post Legacy, May 2008 ............. 33 Graph 10: Estimated Floor Price Premiums, ............................................................................. 34 Graph 11: Apartment Availability, Amli at La Villita, May 2008 ................................................... 35 Graph 12: Available Units by Per Square Foot Price and Size, Amli at La Villita, May 2008 ..... 36 Graph 13: Estimated Floor Price Premiums, Post Addison Circle, May 2008 ........................... 36 Graph 14: Apartment Availability, Legacy Village, May 2008 ..................................................... 38 Graph 15: Available Units by Per Square Foot Price and Size, Legacy Village, May 2008 ........ 38 Graph 16: Histogram of Studio Unit Sizes, 2008 ........................................................................ 45 Graph 17: Histogram of One-Bedroom Unit Sizes, 2008 ........................................................... 45 Graph 18: Histogram of Two-bedroom Unit Sizes, 2008 ........................................................... 46 Graph 19: Studio per Square Foot Rents by Unit Size, Carrollton/Addison/Coppell Submarket,
2008 ............................................................................................................................................ 47 Graph 20: One-Bedroom per Square Foot Rents by Unit Size, Carrollton/Addison/Coppell
Submarket, 2008......................................................................................................................... 48 Graph 21: Two-Bedroom per Square Foot Rents by Unit Size, Carrollton/Addison/Coppell
Submarket, 2008......................................................................................................................... 48 Graph 22: Lease-Up Pace, AMLI at La Villita, Los Colinas, 2007-2008 .................................... 49 Graph 23: Single-Family Closings, MLS Areas 22 and 10, 2005-2007 ...................................... 60 Graph 24: Days on Market, MLS Areas 22 and 10, 2005-2008 YTD .......................................... 61 Graph 25: Average Price Per Square Foot, MLS Areas 22 and 10, 2005-2008 YTD ................. 61 Graph 26: Average Price per Square Foot, Townhouse Closings, 2008 YTD ........................... 70 Graph 27: Average Price per Square Foot, Townhouse Active Listings, May 2008 .................. 71 Graph 28: Average Price per Square Foot, Townhouse Closings and Active Listings, MLS Area
22, May 2008 .............................................................................................................................. 72 Graph 29: Employment by Category, Dallas-Ft. Worth MSA and Texas ................................... 99 Graph 30: Unemployment Rates, Dallas-Fort Worth MSA and US, 1990-2007 ...................... 101 Graph 31: National Hotel Industry Performance Annual Change ............................................. 106 Graph 32: Percentage Supply Change, Carrollton Hotel Market, 1997-2008 ........................... 110 Graph 33: Monthly Supply and Demand, Competitive Hotels, 2002-2008 .............................. 115 Graph 34: Monthly Year-Over-Year Total Competitive Set Room Revenue Change ............... 116 Graph 35: Revenue Per Available Room ................................................................................. 116 Graph 36: Occupancy and Year-Over-Year Change117 Graph 37: Monthly Competitive Set Room Demand and Average Monthly Rate .................... 118 Graph 38: Seasonality of Occupancy, 2002-2007 ................................................................... 118 Graph 39: Seasonality of Rate, 2002-2007 .............................................................................. 119 Graph 40: Seasonality of RevPar, 2002-2007 ......................................................................... 119 Graph 41: Occupancy by Day of Week, June 2007 – May 2008 ............................................. 120 Graph 42: Average Daily Rate by Day of Week, June 2007 to May 2008 ............................... 120 Graph 43: Estimated Unaccommodated Room Nights ............................................................ 121 List of Maps
Map 1: Professional Employment Centers, Raiford Road Site, 2008 ......................................... 10 Map 2: Competitive Market Area - Apartments, Raiford Road Site, 2008.................................. 14 Map 3: Dallas Metro Area, 2008 ................................................................................................. 16 Map 4: Comparable Mixed-Use Apartment Communities .......................................................... 28 Map 5: Apartment Development Activity, CMA, 2008 ................................................................ 41 Map 6: Competitive Market Area – Single-Family, Raiford Road Site, 2008 .............................. 51 July 2008
Map 7: Comparable Single-Family Subdivisions, CMA, 2008 .................................................... 63 Map 8: Single-Family Subdivision Development Activity, CMA, 2008 ........................................ 66 Map 9: Comparable Townhouse Developments, CMA, 2008 ..................................................... 73 Map 10: Townhouse Development Activity, CMA, 2008 ............................................................. 78 Map 11: Comparable Market-Rate Age-Restricted Apartment Communities, 2000 ................... 87 Map 12: Comparable For-Sale Age-Restricted Communities, 2008 ........................................... 91 July 2008
Executive Summary
1. Market-Rate Apartments
At a density of 22 units per acre, a total of 330 apartments could be constructed on the 15-acre
site east of Raiford Road bordering the Forneaux Creek greenway. The 15-acre site is
recommended for apartments because it will create a link with the neighboring 12.5-acre site that
will likely be developed with retail and/or a hotel and provide a buffer between retail/hotel uses
and for-sale housing. Higher density development will also support use of the adjacent
greenway. The site’s topography will allow for sweeping views in all directions, with premiums
achievable for greenway-facing units. The apartments could be constructed in a combination of
single- and mixed-use buildings. The mixed-use buildings would contain units above
professional office and/or retail space.
15.0 Ac
A total of 330 units are recommended for 15 acres of the Raiford Road site. Based on current
and forecasted market opportunities, the following unit mix is recommended:
Heated
Unit Type Sq. Ft.
% of
Units Total
Studio
400-600
35 10.6%
1BR/1BA
600-850
215 65.2%
2BR/2BA 850-1,150
Total
80 24.2%
330 100%
Source: Warren & Associates
Based on an analysis of the Carrollton/Addison/Coppell submarket, the mixed-use comparable
community performance, and the proposed amenities of the Raiford Road site, the following
base rents and rents per square foot should be achievable in 2008 dollars. These rents are net of
premiums that could be generated for specific views, floors and interior features. They also do
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not reflect concessions that could be required during initial lease-up. These rents do include
adjustments for a new development in the Carrollton submarket.
Heated
Rent Per
Monthly
Sq. Ft.
Sq. Ft.
Rent
Studio
400-600
$1.25-$1.30
1BR/1BA
600-850
$1.20-$1.25 $750-$1,020
Unit Type
2BR/2BA
Average
$520-$750
850-1,150 $1.10-$1.15 $980-$1,270
768
$1.21
Apartments at the Raiford Road site should be able to lease-up at a rate of 20-25 units per month,
reaching a stable 92% occupancy rate within 16 months.
2. Single-Family
The opportunity for single-family development on the Raiford Road site is limited to the north
side of Furneaux Creek and the planned greenway. A narrow 11-acre parcel could be allocated
to single-family housing adjacent to two existing neighborhoods north and east of the site.
Cemetery Hill Road could be extended into the site to provide access from Frankford Road.
11.0 Ac
15.0 Ac
Most of Carrollton is built-out, with all new single-family development occurring in the far
northern portions of the city. The Raiford Road site is an in-fill property that is well-positioned
to accommodate higher-density housing. As a result, single-family should be limited to the 11
acres that adjoin the existing single-family neighborhoods.
Lots should be approximately 50 feet in width, supporting houses from 2,200 to 2,800 square
feet. At least one floor plan should have a first-floor master bedroom to accommodate the
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empty-nester buyer. House prices would range from $290,000 to $400,000, or $132 to $143 per
square foot (2008 dollars). Standard features should include the following:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stone or brick front elevations
Stainless steel appliances
Solid surface (granite) kitchen countertops
Hand-scraped hardwood or upgraded tile floors in all main level living areas
Oak, maple, or clear glass kitchen cabinets
Cultured marble bathroom vanity counters and shower pans
2-car garages
While single family housing will provide an important buffer for adjacent neighborhoods, it
should comprise only a portion of the Raiford Road site’s housing mix. Because housing
diversity will accelerate absorption and create a higher land value for the City, a variety of forsale product should be offered. Limiting the northern portion of the site to single family lots will
diminish the value and brand of a vibrant community fronting a greenway within walking
distance of the Trinity Mills DART light rail station.
Based on market and demographic research, the Raiford Road site would struggle to compete
with new high-income single family product in the north Carrollton communities of Castle Hills
and Austin Waters. These two master-planned developments, which are profiled in the single
family section of this report, target families seeking large lots, country club-type amenities, new
schools, and closer proximity to corporate jobs in the Dallas North Tollway corridor.
3. Townhouses
The Raiford Road site is well-positioned for townhouses, with nearby retail centers and the
proposed Furneaux Creek greenway offering recreational amenities and pedestrian connections.
A 21-acre portion of the site north of the greenway and adjacent to the potential single family
component is the most competitive location for townhouses. Access would be from Old Denton
Road.
21.0 Ac
July 2008
In order to develop the entire 21 acres, the existing small lake would have to be filled. Because
this lake offers a unique view corridor and amenity, it could be retained to generate premiums for
units facing the lake. These premiums could potentially partially offset the loss of value from a
smaller developable parcel.
The recommended product for the Raiford Road site is similar to Addison Circle and Austin
Waters, with varying levels of density. An overall average of eight to nine units per gross acre
should be achievable, resulting in 170 to 190 townhouses for the entire 21 acre parcel. If the lake
remains, there would be potential for 110 to 125 units on approximately 14 acres.
Townhouses on the Raiford Road site should contain 1,700 to 2,200 square feet, with four to five
floor plans offering three bedrooms and two and one-half baths. The largest floor plan should
have a first-floor master bedroom to attract empty-nester buyers.
Townhouse prices should range from $190,000 to $275,000, or $105 to $119 per square foot
(2008 dollars). An average of $112 per square foot reflects the following features:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Brick front elevations, with some siding or stone accents
Wood, tile, and carpeted flooring
2-car garages
4. Senior Apartments
Given the excessive overall vacancy rate at the existing market-rate senior apartment
communities in the Carrollton/Addison market area, and the two communities either under
construction or soon to be started in the Old Denton Road corridor, there is currently limited
opportunity for new product on the Raiford Road site. The most appropriate location for senior
product would be on a portion of the 21-acre parcel recommended for townhouses.
While demographic forecasts indicate an increase of 6,642 households over age 55 in the CMA
over the next five years, it is important to note that a majority will be aging in place. Most of
these households do not generate demand for new housing, as they prefer to stay in their existing
residence. Broken down by age, 52% of the forecasted 2008-2013 growth will be under age 64,
representing active seniors that gravitate to for-sale product. By income, 97% of the new senior
households will earn over $100,000 per year. Again, these households will generally prefer to
purchase a residence. Combined with the difficult market conditions at the comparable
communities, these demographic indicators would discourage construction of age-restricted
market-rate apartments on the Raiford Road site.
5. Senior For-Sale Housing
The 21-acre portion of the site along Old Denton Road north of the Furneaux Creek greenway
could be designated for a for-sale senior product similar to the Village at Prestonwood. This
type of design with four single-level units per building could be constructed at a density of
approximately six to 6.5 units per gross acre. This would generally support 125 to 135 units. If
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the small lake on the site is not filled in, a total of 85 to 90 units could be accommodated on 14
acres.
If the lake on the 21-acre parcel is filled in, the for-sale senior product could be developed
adjacent to a non-age-restricted townhouse community. An achievable mix would be
approximately 85-90 senior units on 14 acres and 55-65 townhouses on seven acres. These two
projects would be sized consistently with the comparables identified in this report. Dividing the
parcel into two products would maximize absorption potential and potentially generate higher
land values.
For-Sale senior units would be very similar to Village at Prestonwood, ranging from
approximately 1,600 to 1,800 square feet with two-car garages. Pricing would range from
$200,000 to $220,000, or $125 per square foot (2008 dollars). This would be a 10% discount
from Prestonwood, which averages $139 per square foot with a location adjacent to Prestonwood
Country Club in Plano.
A small clubhouse and pool should be constructed for the senior community, but no other on-site
amenities or services would be justified by the unit count or pricing. As a result, the amenity
package would be similar to, or perhaps inferior to, a non-age-restricted townhouse community.
With townhouses estimated to average $112 per square foot (2008 dollars), the $13 per square
foot average price premium for senior housing is based on higher quality construction and
interior finishes. Given the absorption pace at Village at Prestonwood, the site could expect to
sell approximately 3.0 to 3.5 for-sale senior units per month.
6. Hotel Market
The table below summarizes the recommended hotel component of the Raiford Road site.
Summary of Recommendations
Proposed Hotel Components
Assumed Opening Date
January 1, 2011
Hotel I
Guest Rooms
Upscale Limited Service Branded Property
130
Pool
Fitness Center
Business Center
Parking
Shared
Shared
Yes
Shared 200 spaces
Hotel II
Guest Rooms
Midscale Limited Service Branded
110
Pool
Fitness Center
Business Center
Parking
Shared
Shared
Yes
Shared 200 spaces
Source: HSP
July 2008
The above recommendations are based on study completed to date. If additional study is
directed, a penetration model will be used to determine how the proposed products will perform.
This will include a detailed financial projection, from which an investment analysis can be
developed. Based upon a full study, a determination of hotel details can be provided. The
concepts above are the best recommendations based on our existing study.
It is suggested that two limited service branded hotels be developed as the economy recovers and
the hotel economy along with it. Due to the recent expansion of supply and declining
occupancy, as well as the overall economic climate, it is believed that the hotel products should
not open until 2011 at the earliest and should coincide with the opening of the other subject site
elements. In addition, the market does not appear to support a full-service upper upscale product
without outside support (such as public funds). This lack of feasibility includes meeting space.
However, meeting space in the hotel, as well as a restaurant, would be beneficial for the overall
project and developing a more balanced market mix for the hotel(s). This would require public
assistance, however, and should be studied in more depth.
In terms of brands, we believe the hotels should be branded and potentially from the same brand
family. There are many instances of this synergy, where a Courtyard and Springhill Suites or a
Hyatt Place and Summerfield Suites are developed near each other. This would suit the
development.
7. Summary
The potential residential build-out for the Raiford Road site is summarized below, totaling 495 to
545 units.
Unit Type
Apartments
Single-Family
Townhouse
Senior-For Sale
Total
Units
Pricing
300 - 330
$520 $1,270
55 - 60 $290,000 - $400,000
55 - 65 $190,000 - $275,000
85 - 90 $200,000 - $220,000
495 - 545
The proposed Forneaux Creek greenway would be a prerequisite to all residential development.
This amenity would drive demand and pricing on the site, and augment the project’s brand for
promoting recreation and preserving the environment.
Residential product on the Raiford Road project should be implemented in phases, commencing
with the market-rate apartments on the 15-acre site south of the proposed greenway. Market
demand is currently strongest for this product type, and this trend should continue for the next
two to three years.
Phase 2 should consist of the single family housing on the 11-acre site north of the greenway.
This small neighborhood would connect with existing streets, and attract existing Carrollton area
residents seeking the privacy of detached units, combined with a low-maintenance, recreationbased lifestyle with greenway access.
July 2008
The townhouses and/or for-sale senior product would be constructed in Phase 3, driven in part by
site planning issues related to the small lake and the existing farmhouse on the 21-acre parcel.
The combination of townhouses and senior housing assumes that the existing lake is filled in and
graded for development. It also recognizes the future premiums that should be obtainable as the
surrounding market area urbanizes, and the DART light rail station at Trinity Mills opens.
The form and density of for-sale housing on the 21-acre parcel could evolve into a greater mix of
product offerings. Some flats, duplexes, and zero-lot-line houses could be added to recognize
the preferences of an increasingly diverse market area.
The two recommended limited-service hotels would occupy a portion of the 12.5-acre parcel
fronting the President George Bush Turnpike. It is recommended that these hotels open in early
2011, which would likely be concurrent with the delivery of the Phase 1 market-rate apartments.
The balance of the parcel would likely contain retail and/or professional office space.
July 2008
1. Introduction and Site Description
The City of Carrollton, TX hired Warren & Associates and Hunden Strategic Partners to provide
a residential and hotel market analysis for a 110-acre site currently owned by the City. The site
is located in the northeast quadrant of the President George Bush Turnpike/Old Denton Road
interchange. With frontage on both Old Denton Road and the President George Bush Turnpike
access road, the site is a pivotal infill property in the established Carrollton market. Raiford
Road forms a portion of the site’s boundary to the south and west.
This report provides detailed market and demographic trends, and specific site, product, and
pricing recommendations for market-rate apartments, single-family residences, townhouses, and
for-sale and for-rent senior housing. It also provides an analysis of the hotel market.
The site is located in central Carrollton, surrounded by established single-family neighborhoods
to the north, east, and west. A shopping center anchored by a Wal-Mart Supercenter and Lowe’s
Home Improvement is located to the south across Raiford Road. A portion of the site extends
south to the President George Bush Turnpike access road. Furneaux Creek flows east-west
through the middle of the site. A greenbelt park that already exists along the creek on both sides
of the site will be extended to provide uninterrupted pedestrian and bicycle connections to the
future Trinity Mills DART light rail station.
Figure 1: Raiford Road Site
July 2008
1
A significant portion of the site is encumbered by the Furneaux Creek floodplain. While this
limits the amount of developable land, it allows for a mix of passive recreation opportunities and
open space view corridors that could generate residential premiums. A small lake on the north
side of the creek could be maintained as an amenity, or filled in to create a larger development
parcel.
Approximately 25 acres remain vacant on the south side of Raiford Road, providing a buffer
between the site and the Wal-Mart Supercenter and Lowe’s Home Improvement. A portion of
this land will soon be developed as the Villas at Raiford, a for-rent senior housing community.
Construction is scheduled to start in August 2008.
July 2008
2
2. Area Description
This section details public and private investments that could impact the Raiford Road site.
2.1
DART Green Line
The Green Line expansion of DART Rail will
add 27.7 miles and 20 stations to DART’s
current 45 miles and 35 stations. The first
phase of the $1.8 billion project extends
southeast of downtown Dallas to Fair Park and
is scheduled to open in September 2009, along
with daily service to Victory Park. The
remainder of the Green Line will open by
December 2010. When complete, the Green
Line will serve Baylor University Medical
Center, Victory Park, Love Field Airport, and
Dallas Market Center, as well as Carrollton.
There will be three stops in Carrollton: North
Carrollton/Frankford, Trinity Mills (which is
closest to the Raiford Road site at
approximately one mile), and Downtown
Carrollton. Each station will provide parking
for riders. The Trinity Mills station will
connect to the Raiford Road site by greenway
(see section 2.2).
2.2
Greenbelt Extension
In 2006, the City of Carrollton adopted the
Carrollton Trails Master Plan, to create a
common vision for pedestrian and bicyclist
transportation, as well as recreation. Currently
the greenbelt extends from Hebron Parkway in
the north to Old Denton Road in the south, near
the Raiford Road site. Plans are in place to
extend the greenbelt through the Raiford Road
site and connect the site to the Trinity Mills
DART light rail station.
The corridor will connect pedestrians and
bicyclists to the light rail line and eventually to
other greenbelt systems in the Dallas metro area.
July 2008
3
C
2.3
Hig
ghway 121 Tollway
In October 2007, the North Texaas Tollway Authority
A
(NT
TTA) and Texas Departm
ment of
H
121 project agrreement. Thhe project wiill
Transporrtation (TxDOT) finalizeed the State Highway
run approoximately 26
6 miles throuugh Collin, Dallas,
D
and Denton
D
counnties, and cosst $639 milliion.
Segment 1 is currentlly open to trraffic. Segm
ment 2, from Old Denton Road to Hilllcrest Road,, is
scheduled for compleetion in Septtember 20088. Constructtion of all secctions is schheduled to bee
completee by January 2012.
July 2008
8
4
3.
Employment
This section provides employment and wage trends for Dallas County and the Dallas MSA, both
of which include the City of Carrollton. It also identifies three major employment centers near
the Raiford Road site and analyzes completion and absorption trends for their respective
submarkets.
3.1
Trends
3.1.1
Jobs
As shown in Table 1, there were 1.33 million jobs in Dallas County in 2007, a 0.8% increase
from 2002. The largest industries in 2007 were Manufacturing (143,469 employees), Retail
Trade (140,195 employees), and Administrative and Waste Services (137,940 employees). The
Administrative and Waste Services industry had the largest absolute growth from 2002 to 2007
in Dallas County, increasing by 15,759 employees, or 12.9%. Management of Companies and
Enterprises had the largest growth rate at 101.3%, or 8,777 employees. Educational Services
also experienced significant employment growth at 28.9%. The Information industry had the
largest absolute and percent decrease in employment, losing 21,138 jobs, or 30.4%, in five years.
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction, Utilities, and Retail Trade also experienced
significant employment losses.
Table 1: Private Industry Employment Trends, Dallas County, 2002-2007
2002-2007 Change
Industry
2002
2007
#
%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
570
629
59
10.4%
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
8,384
6,759
-1,625 -19.4%
Utilities
6,292
5,195
-1,097 -17.4%
Construction
76,386
83,973
7,587
9.9%
Manufacturing
153,238
143,469
-9,769
-6.4%
Wholesale Trade
110,202
107,211
-2,991
-2.7%
Retail Trade
158,527
140,195 -18,332 -11.6%
Transportation and Warehousing
61,021
58,430
-2,591
-4.2%
Information
69,595
48,457 -21,138 -30.4%
Finance and Insurance
101,534
107,151
5,617
5.5%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
38,908
37,409
-1,499
-3.9%
Professional and Technical Services
107,639
122,783 15,144
14.1%
Management of Companies and Enterprises
8,662
17,439
8,777 101.3%
Administrative and Waste Services
122,181
137,940 15,759
12.9%
Educational Services
15,969
20,579
4,610
28.9%
Health Care and Social Assistance
112,363
126,674 14,311
12.7%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
14,665
14,161
-504
-3.4%
Accommodation and Food Services
114,005
115,804
1,799
1.6%
Other Services, Ex. Public Admin
42,477
39,273
-3,204
-7.5%
Unclassified
1,199
1,052
-147 -12.3%
Total
1,323,817 1,334,583 10,766
0.8%
Source: Texas Labor Market Information
July 2008
5
There were 2.56 million jobs in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA in 2007, a 10.8% increase
from 2002 (Table 2). The largest industries in 2007 were Retail Trade (323,699 employees),
Manufacturing (297,745 employees), and Health Care and Social Assistance (258,476
employees). Like Dallas County, the Administrative and Waste Services industry had the largest
absolute growth in employment from 2002 to 2007 in the Dallas MSA, increasing by 47,044
jobs, or 25.0%. Management of Companies and Enterprises had the highest growth rate at
120.5%, or 15,331 employees. Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction, Educational
Services, and Professional and Technical Services also had significant employment growth in the
five-year period. Like Dallas County, the Information industry had the largest absolute and
percent decrease in employment, losing 14,842 jobs, or 14.2%. Utilities, Real
Estate/Rental/Leasing, Manufacturing, and Unclassified industries also experienced employment
losses in the Dallas MSA.
Table 2: Private Industry Employment Trends, Dallas MSA, 2002-2007
2002-2007 Change
Industry
2002
2007
#
%
2,565
2,885
320
12.5%
14,003
20,759
6,756
48.2%
Utilities
9,633
8,331
-1,302
-13.5%
Construction
142,082
169,743
27,661
19.5%
Manufacturing
304,451
297,745
-6,706
-2.2%
Wholesale Trade
161,871
173,193
11,322
7.0%
Retail Trade
322,810
323,699
889
0.3%
122,005
132,329
10,324
8.5%
Information
104,517
89,675 -14,842
-14.2%
152,570
175,318
22,748
14.9%
61,517
59,184
-2,333
-3.8%
150,819
188,933
38,114
25.3%
12,719
28,050
15,331
120.5%
188,380
235,424
47,044
25.0%
26,448
35,966
9,518
36.0%
215,125
258,476
43,351
20.2%
28,271
34,702
6,431
22.7%
215,089
246,764
31,675
14.7%
75,311
78,108
2,797
3.7%
Unclassified
2,035
1,926
-109
-5.4%
Total
2,312,221 2,561,210 248,989
10.8%
July 2008
6
3.1.2
Wages
As shown in Table 3, the average annual wage in Dallas County in 2007 was $71,313,
representing a 37.2% increase from 2002. The highest paying industries were Utilities
($201,864) and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($190,320). The lowest paying
industries were Accommodation and Food Services ($21,632) and Retail Trade ($32,708).
Despite experiencing a 17.4% decrease in employment, the Utilities industry had the highest
absolute and percent increase in annual wages at $125,112, or 163%. Similarly, Mining,
Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction had significant growth in annual wages despite decreases
in overall employment. None of the industries experienced a decrease in annual wages over the
five-year period; however, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting and Retail Trade saw the
smallest growth in wages at 2% and 4.3%, respectively.
Table 3: Private Industry Average Annual Wage Trends, Dallas County, 2002-2007
2002-2007 Change
Industry
2002
2007
#
%
$38,116
$38,896
$780
2.0%
$116,428 $190,320
$73,892
63.5%
Utilities
$76,752 $201,864 $125,112
163.0%
Construction
$44,824
$55,016
$10,192
22.7%
Manufacturing
$52,676
$63,076
$10,400
19.7%
Wholesale Trade
$64,116
$77,792
$13,676
21.3%
Retail Trade
$31,356
$32,708
$1,352
4.3%
$39,364
$49,504
$10,140
25.8%
Information
$60,320
$78,156
$17,836
29.6%
$65,052
$79,924
$14,872
22.9%
$51,532
$64,012
$12,480
24.2%
$86,008
$98,904
$12,896
15.0%
$74,360
$93,340
$18,980
25.5%
$30,524
$40,092
$9,568
31.3%
$33,696
$40,144
$6,448
19.1%
$46,592
$55,276
$8,684
18.6%
$40,040
$60,164
$20,124
50.3%
$19,136
$21,632
$2,496
13.0%
$29,692
$34,216
$4,524
15.2%
Unclassified
$38,896
$51,220
$12,324
31.7%
Average
$51,974
$71,313
$19,339
37.2%
July 2008
7
The average annual wage in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA in 2007 was $62,010, a
27.7% increase from 2002 (Table 4). The highest paying industries were Utilities ($151,528)
and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($141,336). The lowest paying industries
were Accommodation and Food Services ($18,512) and Retail Trade ($30,056). Like Dallas
County, the Utilities industry in the Dallas MSA experienced the largest absolute and percent
increase in annual wages, increasing by $83,148, or 121.6%, during the five-year period.
Management of Companies and Enterprises and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
also experienced significant growth in annual wages. While none of the industries in the Dallas
MSA experienced a decrease in annual wages, Retail Trade, Art, Entertainment, and Recreation,
and Transportation and Warehousing each experienced an annual wage growth of less than ten
percent.
Table 4: Private Industry Average Annual Wage Trends, Dallas MSA, 2002-2007
2002-2007 Change
Industry
2002
2007
#
%
$26,832
$30,784
$3,952
14.7%
$108,160 $141,336
$33,176
30.7%
Utilities
$68,380 $151,528
$83,148
121.6%
Construction
$43,836
$53,248
$9,412
21.5%
Manufacturing
$51,896
$63,544
$11,648
22.4%
Wholesale Trade
$60,996
$73,008
$12,012
19.7%
Retail Trade
$28,652
$30,056
$1,404
4.9%
$44,980
$48,516
$3,536
7.9%
Information
$59,384
$75,140
$15,756
26.5%
$60,424
$73,736
$13,312
22.0%
$45,396
$56,628
$11,232
24.7%
$78,676
$90,272
$11,596
14.7%
$68,380
$90,844
$22,464
32.9%
$30,524
$37,908
$7,384
24.2%
$31,564
$36,504
$4,940
15.7%
$43,524
$50,440
$6,916
15.9%
$34,528
$36,452
$1,924
5.6%
$16,588
$18,512
$1,924
11.6%
$26,832
$31,668
$4,836
18.0%
Unclassified
$41,288
$50,076
$8,788
21.3%
Average
$48,542
$62,010
$13,468
27.7%
July 2008
8
3.2
Employment Centers
The three closest professional employment centers to the Raiford Road site include the Galleria
area, the Legacy Business Center area, and the Las Colinas area, which are located in the
Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch, Plano/Allen, and Las Colinas submarkets, respectively
(Map 1). As shown in Table 5, there is over 53 million square feet of office space in the selected
submarkets, representing 35.3% of the total inventory in the Dallas market.
Table 5: Total Inventory, Select Submarkets, 1Q 2008
Submarket
Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch
Las Colinas
Plano/Allen
Total
% of Dallas Market
3.2.1
Total Inventory
(Sq. Ft.)
28,755,000
7,627,000
16,627,000
53,009,000
35.3%
Galleria Area
The Galleria area is in the Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch office submarket and is generally
found on the Dallas North Tollway between the President George Bush Turnpike to the north
and Interstate 635 to the south. The Galleria area, located between six and 12 miles from the
Raiford Road site, is an upscale retail shopping destination, as well as home to several corporate
headquarters, including MBNA Information Systems, Inc., Mary Kay Cosmetics, CompUSA,
and Pizza Hut.
According to Reis, there was a five-year under supply of 691,000 square feet of office space in
the Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch submarket, between 2003 and 2007 (Table 6).
Completions of office space have been steady during the past five years, with the exception of
2005, when only 11,000 square feet were completed. Net absorption has been strong since 2004,
peaking at 934,000 square feet in 2005.
Table 6: Office Trends, Addison/Carrollton/Farmers
Branch Submarket, 2003-2007
Net
(Over)/
Year
Completions Absorption Under
2003
382,000
-696,000 (1,078,000)
2004
617,000
565,000
(52,000)
2005
11,000
934,000
923,000
2006
220,000
714,000
494,000
2007
408,000
812,000
404,000
Total
1,638,000
2,329,000
691,000
Source: Reis
July 2008
9
Map 1: Professional Employment Centers, Raiford Road Site, 2008
July 2008
10
3.2.2
Legacy Business Center
The Legacy Business Center is located in the Plano/Allen submarket and is generally bounded by
Spring Creek Parkway to the south and west, State Highway 121 to the north, and Preston Road
to the east. The Legacy area is located approximately 10 miles from the Raiford Road site. The
Dallas North Tollway bisects the Legacy Business Center area.
The Legacy Business Center is a master-planned business, retail, and residential community
consisting of 2,665 acres and approximately 45,000 employees. Major employers located within
the Legacy Business Center include EDS, The Frito-Lay Company, JC Penney, Cadbury
Schweppes Americas Beverages, Countrywide Home Loans, and Pepsico.
There was a five-year over supply of 233,000 square feet of office space in the Plano/Allen
submarket, which encompasses the area around the Legacy Business Center (Table 7). Office
space completions have increased significantly since 2003, ranging from 120,000 square feet in
2003 to 1,467,000 square feet in 2006. Net absorption has been erratic, ranging from negative
46,000 square feet in 2003 to 1,176,000 square feet in 2006.
Table 7: Office Trends, Plano/Allen Submarket,
2003-2007
Year Completions
2003
120,000
2004
254,000
2005
371,000
2006
1,467,000
2007
1,006,000
Total
3,218,000
Net
Absorption
-46,000
763,000
363,000
1,176,000
729,000
2,985,000
(Over)/
Under
(166,000)
509,000
(8,000)
(291,000)
(277,000)
(233,000)
Source: Reis
3.2.3
Las Colinas Area
The Las Colinas submarket is generally bounded by Interstate 635 to the north, the Trinity River
to the east, Northgate Boulevard to the south, and Belt Line Road to the west. The John W.
Carpenter Freeway (State Highway 114) bisects the Las Colinas area. The Las Colinas
employment center is located approximately 12 miles from the Raiford Road site.
Las Colinas is a 12,000-acre master-planned community combining commercial, residential,
educational, recreational, and retail uses. Major employers include four Fortune 500
headquarters: Commercial Metals, Exxon-Mobil, Fluor Corp., and Kimberly Clark. Citigroup,
Oracle, Verizon, and Nokia are also large employers within Las Colinas.
July 2008
11
There was a five-year under supply of 315,000 square feet of office space in the Las Colinas
submarket from 2003 to 2007 (Table 8). There were no new completions of office space within
the Las Colinas area during the five-year period, while net absorption ranged from negative
668,000 square feet in 2004 to 492,000 square feet in 2005.
Table 8: Office Trends, Las Colinas Submarket,
2003-2007
Net
Year Completions Absorption
2003
0
-330,000
2004
0
-668,000
2005
0
492,000
2006
0
483,000
2007
0
338,000
Total
0
315,000
(Over)/
Under
(330,000)
(668,000)
492,000
483,000
338,000
315,000
Source: Reis
3.2.4
Estimated Job Growth
The five-year net absorption for the Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch, Las Colinas, and
Plano/Allen submarkets, encompassing the three major employment centers near the Raiford
Road site, was more than 5.6 million square feet (Table 9). Based on a ratio of 250 square feet
per employee, it is estimated that the three submarkets experienced growth of roughly 22,516
jobs between 2003 and 2007. The Plano/Allen submarket comprised 53.0% of the total job
growth, followed by the Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch submarket at 41.4%. The Las
Colinas submarket represented only 5.6% of the total job growth. While net absorption of office
space has been strong in the Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch submarket, it is important to
note that demand is likely not evenly distributed within the submarket; office demand has been
strongest in the Addison area along the Dallas North Tollway.
Table 9: Estimated Job Growth, Select Submarkets, 2003-2007
Submarket
Addison/Carrollton/Farmers Branch
Las Colinas
Plano/Allen
Total
Net Absorption Sq. Ft./
Estimated
(2003-2007)
Employee Job Growth
2,329,000
250
9,316
315,000
250
1,260
2,985,000
250
11,940
5,629,000
22,516
% of
Total
41.4%
5.6%
53.0%
Source: REIS and Warren & Associates
Strong job growth and close proximity to major employment centers is a positive indicator of
residential demand for the Carrollton area, including the Raiford Road site. Most employees
prefer to live within a 30-minute commute. The Raiford Road site is located less than 15 miles
from each of the major employment centers, well positioned for residential development.
July 2008
12
4.
Market Rate Apartments
This section defines the Competitive Market Area (CMA) and outlines demographic trends and
forecasts for the CMA and the overall Dallas market. It also describes apartment inventory,
absorption, vacancy, and rent trends for both the CMA and the Dallas metro area. As defined by
Reis, the CMA encompasses the Carrollton/Addison/Coppell submarket.
4.1
CMA
As shown on Map 2, the CMA for the Raiford Road site includes Carrollton, Coppell, and
Addison. It is generally bounded by the Dallas County line, Old Denton Road, and E. Hebron
Parkway to the north; the Denton and Dallas County lines and the North Dallas Tollway to the
east; and Spring Valley and Brookhaven roads, Valwood Parkway, Luna and Beltline roads, and
I-635 to the south; and the Dallas County line to the west.
4.2
4.2.1
Demographic Trends and Forecast
Population
CMA
There were 176,245 residents in the CMA in 2008, 9.9%, more than in 2000 (Table 10).
Residents between the ages of 35 and 44 represented the largest age cohort, at 31,195 people, but
experienced a population decrease of 2.2% between 2000 and 2008. The CMA also observed
population declines in the five- to nine-year-old cohort and the 25- to 34-year-old cohort. The
largest population increases occurred in the 55 to 64 year-olds (57.2%) and those 85 and older
(83.2%).
Table 10: Population Trends by Age Cohort,
CMA, 2000-2008
Change
Age
Cohort
2000
2008 Number Percent
0-4
12,669
13,395
726
5.7%
5-9
12,829
12,690
-139
-1.1%
10 - 14
11,706
12,337
631
5.4%
15 - 19
9,942
11,280
1,337
13.4%
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
10,744
30,950
31,912
12,161
29,962
31,195
1,417
-988
-717
13.2%
-3.2%
-2.2%
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
21,809
10,424
4,650
26,613
16,391
6,521
4,804
5,967
1,871
22.0%
57.2%
40.2%
75 - 84
85+
Total
2,245
481
160,362
2,820
881
176,245
575
400
15,883
25.6%
83.2%
9.9%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
13
Map 2: Competitive Market Area - Apartments, Raiford Road Site, 2008
July 2008
14
Population growth within the CMA is expected to slow slightly to 9.1% between 2008 and 2013,
with a projected population of 192,342 people by 2013 (Table 11). The only age cohort
predicted to decrease is the 35- to 44-year-old age group, while the balance is expected to grow
between 2.9% (10- to 14-year-olds) and 32.7% (64- to 74-year-olds). The strong growth seen in
the 85+ age cohort between 2000 and 2008 is expected to moderate to a 31% rate between 2008
and 2013.
Table 11: Population Forecast by Age Cohort,
CMA, 2008-2013
Change
Age
Cohort
2008
2013 Number Percent
0-4
13,395
14,810
1,416
10.6%
5-9
12,690
13,272
582
4.6%
10 - 14
12,337
12,695
357
2.9%
15 - 19
11,280
11,733
453
4.0%
20 - 24
12,161
14,618
2,457
20.2%
25 - 34
29,962
32,121
2,159
7.2%
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85+
Total
31,195
26,613
16,391
6,521
2,820
881
176,245
30,775
29,236
19,811
8,655
3,462
1,154
192,342
-421
2,623
3,420
2,134
642
273
16,097
-1.3%
9.9%
20.9%
32.7%
22.8%
31.0%
9.1%
Source: ESRI
Dallas Metro Area
The Dallas metro area is defined by Reis as 24 different submarkets, extending from northwest
Denton County to the southern boundary of Dallas County (Map 3). For the purposes of the
demographic analysis, however, the Northwest Denton County submarket is excluded; the
demographics for 23 of the 24 Dallas submarkets were analyzed to describe the demographic
trends and forecasts for the Dallas metro area.
July 2008
15
Map 3: Dallas Metro Area, 2008
July 2008
16
There were 3.3 million residents in the Dallas metro area in 2008, 17.4% more than in 2000
when the population was just over 2.8 million (Table 12). Although residents between the ages
of 25 and 34 years old represented the largest age cohort at 530,386 people, this cohort
experienced the smallest population increase at only 2.0% between 2000 and 2008. Like the
CMA, the largest population increases were in the 55- to 64-year-old age cohort and the 85+ age
cohort, at 55.3% and 46.7% growth, respectively.
Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008
Change
Age
Cohort
2000
2008 Number Percent
0-4
235,900
276,868
40,968
17.4%
5-9
227,374
253,518
26,144
11.5%
10 - 14
210,321
243,510
33,190
15.8%
15 - 19
198,952
236,839
37,887
19.0%
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
210,321
520,117
488,854
243,510
530,386
527,050
33,190
10,268
38,196
15.8%
2.0%
7.8%
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
349,587
193,268
116,529
463,671
300,218
143,438
114,083
106,951
26,909
32.6%
55.3%
23.1%
75 - 84
85+
Total
68,212
22,737
2,842,172
83,394
33,358
3,335,759
15,182
10,620
493,587
22.3%
46.7%
17.4%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
17
The population of the Dallas metro area is expected to grow by 348,281 residents, or 10.4%,
between 2008 and 2012 (Table 13). Like the CMA, the only age cohort expected to decrease in
population is the 35- to 44-year-old age cohort, although at a lesser rate than the CMA. The
remaining age groups are expected to increase in population from 6.0% (75- to 84-year-olds) to
25.9% (65- to 74-year-olds). Although the CMA and the Dallas metro area are predicted to
experience similar growth among most age cohorts, there is a substantial difference in the growth
expected among the 75- to 84-year-olds. While the Dallas metro area anticipates a 6.0% growth
in this age group, the CMA is expected to see a 22.8% growth.
Change
Age
Cohort
2008
2013 Number Percent
0-4
276,868
305,775
28,907
10.4%
5-9
253,518
272,619
19,101
7.5%
10 - 14
243,510
257,883
14,372
5.9%
15 - 19
236,839
254,199
17,360
7.3%
20 - 24
243,510
283,671
40,161
16.5%
25 - 34
530,386
571,026
40,641
7.7%
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85+
Total
527,050
463,671
300,218
143,438
83,394
33,358
3,335,759
523,134
530,502
375,772
180,518
88,417
40,524
3,684,040
-3,916
66,831
75,554
37,080
5,023
7,167
348,281
-0.7%
14.4%
25.2%
25.9%
6.0%
21.5%
10.4%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
18
4.2.2
Housing Units
CMA
There were an estimated 72,686 housing units in the CMA in 2008, an 11.3% increase from 2000
(Table 14). The number of vacant housing units increased dramatically between 2000 and 2008.
In 2000, there were 2,612 vacant units. In 2008, there were 4,725, representing an 80.9%
increase. Owner-occupied housing units increased by 6.3% and renter-occupied housing units
increased by 10.8%.
Table 14: Housing Unit Trends, CMA, 2000-2008
2000
2008
2000 - 2008 Change
Tenure
Number
% Share Number % Share Number Percent
Owner Occupied
33,629
51.5%
35,762
49.2%
2,133
6.3%
Renter Occupied
29,058
44.5%
32,200
44.3%
3,142
10.8%
Vacant
2,612
4.0%
4,725
6.5%
2,113
80.9%
Total
65,299
100%
72,686
100%
7,387
11.3%
Source: ESRI
Of the 4,725 vacant housing units in the CMA in 2008, 1,365 are estimated as apartments, based
on first quarter data from Reis. This would result in 3,360 vacant single-family and townhouse
units. The overall apartment vacancy rate for the CMA is 4.2% (Graph 1 in Section 4.3.1). The
single-family and townhouse vacancy rate would be considerably higher at 8.4%, reflecting the
impact of a slowing real estate market and excess new and resale product inventory. In an
affluent market such as the CMA, it could also indicate the increasing trend toward maintaining
two or three residences. Households can select the location of their primary residence based on
duration of occupancy and other factors.
The number of housing units in the CMA is expected to grow by nearly 7,500 units, or 10.2%,
between 2008 and 2013 (Table 15). The growth of vacant housing units will continue to outpace
owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing unit growth. The share of owner-occupied housing
units will continue to decrease, while the share of renter-occupied housing units will increase.
Table 15: Housing Unit Forecast, CMA, 2008-2013
2008
2013
2008 - 2013 Change
Tenure
Number
Owner Occupied
35,762
49.2%
37,331
46.6%
1,569
4.4%
Renter Occupied
Vacant
Total
32,200
4,725
72,686
44.3%
6.5%
100%
36,930
5,848
80,109
46.1%
7.3%
100%
4,730
1,123
7,423
14.7%
23.8%
10.2%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
19
Dallas Metro Area
There were an estimated 1.3 million housing units in the Dallas metro area in 2008, an 18.7%
increase from 2000 (Table 16). Following the CMA trend, the number of vacant housing units
has increased 84.3% to 206,081 in 2008 since 2000. The number of owner-occupied housing
units increased by 21.2% and the share of owner-occupied housing units increased from 52.0%
to 53.1%. The number of renter-occupied housing units only increased 6.9% from 2000 to 2008.
Table 16: Housing Unit Trends, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008
2000
2008
2000 - 2008 Change
Tenure
Number
% Share Number
% Share Number Percent
Owner Occupied
574,567
52.0%
696,150
53.1% 121,583
21.2%
Renter Occupied
468,493
42.4%
500,808
38.2%
32,316
6.9%
Vacant
61,876
5.6%
114,058
8.7%
52,182
84.3%
Total
1,104,936
100% 1,311,017
100% 206,081
18.7%
Source: ESRI
The number of housing units is expected to increase by 148,289 units, or 11.3%, from 2008 to
2013 (Table 17). The number of vacant housing units will continue to increase at a faster rate
than both owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units. The share of owner-occupied units
will decrease slightly from 53.1% in 2008 to 52.1% in 2013, while the share of renter-occupied
housing units will remain steady. The share of vacant units will increase to 9.7%.
Table 17: Housing Unit Forecast, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013
2008
2013
2008 - 2013 Change
Tenure
Number
% Share Number
Owner Occupied
696,150
53.1%
760,298
52.1%
64,148
9.2%
Renter Occupied
Vacant
Total
500,808
114,058
1,311,017
38.2%
557,455
8.7%
141,553
100% 1,459,306
38.2%
9.7%
100%
56,646
27,494
148,289
11.3%
24.1%
11.3%
Source: ESRI
4.2.3
Households by Income
The median household income grew from $59,579 to $76,140, or 27.8%, in the CMA from 2000
to 2008 (Table 18). While the median household income is higher in the CMA than the metro
area, income grew at a faster rate of 36.8% in the overall Dallas metro area.
Table 18: Median Household Income Trends,
CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008
Geography
CMA
Dallas Metro Area
2000
$59,579
$48,351
2000 - 2008 Change
2008 Number
Percent
$76,140
$16,561
27.8%
$66,160
$17,809
36.8%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
20
The median household income in both the CMA and the Dallas metro area is projected to
increase at a rate just over 15% from 2008 to 2013 (Table 19). Annual incomes in the CMA
remain approximately $10,000 more than median household income for the overall Dallas
market.
Table 19: Median Household Income Forecast,
Geography
CMA
Dallas Metro Area
2008
$76,140
$66,160
2008 - 2013 Change
2013 Number
Percent
$87,674
$11,534
15.1%
$76,457
$10,297
15.6%
Source: ESRI
CMA
There were an estimated 67,930 households in the CMA in 2008, an increase of 8.3% since 2000
(Table 20). Households earning more than $200,000 annually comprised the fastest growing
income cohort in the CMA between 2000 and 2008, growing by nearly 3,500 households, or
129.1% in eight years. There was also substantial growth in those households with incomes
between $75,000 and $99,999 and those who earned more than $150,000. The number of
households earning less than $50,000 decreased across all income cohorts in the CMA.
Table 20: Household Trends by Income Cohort, CMA, 2000-2008
2000 - 2008 Change
Household Income
2000
2008 Number Percent
<$15,000
3,639
2,581
-1,058
-29.1%
$15,000 - $24,999
4,769
2,785
-1,984
-41.6%
$25,000 - $34,999
6,651
4,280
-2,372
-35.7%
$35,000 - $49,999
10,542
8,491
-2,050
-19.5%
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
14,056
8,220
8,910
15,080
12,024
11,616
1,025
3,804
2,706
7.3%
46.3%
30.4%
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
3,263
2,698
62,748
4,891
6,182
67,930
1,628
3,483
5,182
49.9%
129.1%
8.3%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
21
It is estimated that there will be approximately 74,245 households in the CMA by 2013,
representing a growth of 9.3% since 2008 (Table 21). The growth in higher income households
will continue over the next five years, with households earning more than $200,000 growing by
58.5%, followed by those making between $100,000 and $149,999 at 41.3%. The number of
households earning less than $50,000 will continue to decrease across all income cohorts.
Table 21: Household Forecast by Income Cohort, CMA, 2008-2013
2008 - 2013 Change
Household Income
2008
2013 Number Percent
<$15,000
2,581
2,227
-354
-13.7%
$15,000 - $24,999
2,785
1,930
-855
-30.7%
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
4,280
8,491
15,080
12,024
11,616
4,891
6,182
67,930
2,821
6,459
16,557
12,176
16,408
5,865
9,800
74,245
-1,458
-2,032
1,476
153
4,792
974
3,619
6,315
-34.1%
-23.9%
9.8%
1.3%
41.3%
19.9%
58.5%
9.3%
Source: ESRI
Dallas Metro Area
There were an estimated 1,196,188 households in the Dallas metro area in 2008, up 14.6% since
2000 (Table 22). Like the CMA, households earning more than $200,000 increased at the fastest
rate across income cohorts, at 126.1% growth from 2000 to 2008. The largest income cohort,
those making between $50,000 and $74,999, grew only 15.2% in eight years. The number of
households earning less than $50,000 decreased across all income cohorts in the Dallas metro
area.
Table 22: Household Trends by Income Cohort,
2000 - 2008 Change
Household Income
2000
2008 Number Percent
<$15,000
119,010
90,910
-28,100
-23.6%
$15,000 - $24,999
113,790
81,341
-32,449
-28.5%
$25,000 - $34,999
132,581
99,284
-33,298
-25.1%
$35,000 - $49,999
172,251
165,074
-7,177
-4.2%
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
207,745
121,098
104,395
239,238
185,409
181,821
31,492
64,311
77,426
15.2%
53.1%
74.2%
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
34,450
38,626
1,043,947
65,790
87,322
1,196,188
31,340
48,696
152,241
91.0%
126.1%
14.6%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
22
There will be more than 1.3 million households in the Dallas metro area by 2013, a 10.1%
increase since 2008 (Table 23). Households earning more than $200,000 will continue to
experience strong growth at 70.5% from 2008 to 2013. Households making less than $50,000 a
year will also continue to decrease in the overall Dallas metro area.
Table 23: Household Forecast by Income Cohort,
2008 - 2013 Change
Household Income
2008
2013 Number Percent
<$15,000
90,910
81,676
-9,235
-10.2%
$15,000 - $24,999
81,341
61,915
-19,425
-23.9%
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
4.3
Market Trends
4.3.1
Net Absorption
99,284
165,074
239,238
185,409
181,821
65,790
87,322
1,196,188
76,406
144,908
279,278
187,064
242,392
94,849
148,860
1,317,349
-22,877
-20,166
40,040
1,654
60,572
29,059
61,539
121,161
-23.0%
-12.2%
16.7%
0.9%
33.3%
44.2%
70.5%
10.1%
CMA
Since 2003, the CMA’s inventory has increased by 620 units, while net absorption has been
1,839 units. Annually, the CMA increased its inventory by an average of 124 units, while net
absorption was 368 units. This resulted in an under supply of 1,219 units, or 244 units on
average per year (Table 24). For the first quarter of 2008, the CMA has not added any new
apartment inventory, while net absorption dropped to negative 65 units.
Table 24: Net Change in Inventory and
Absorption, CMA, 2003-2007
Net
(Over)/
Change in Net
Under
Inventory Absorption Supply
Year
2003
284
(221)
(505)
2004
0
(161)
(161)
2005
0
740
740
2006
4
519
515
2007
332
962
630
Total
620
1,839
1,219
Annual Avg.
124
368
244
Source: Reis
July 2008
23
As shown in Graph 1, the under supply caused the CMA’s vacancy rate to improve from a period
high of 9.9% in 2004 to a low of 4% in 2007 before increasing slightly to 4.2% in the first
quarter of 2008.
Graph 1: Apartment Trends, CMA, 2003-2008 1Q
1,600
9.4%
1,200
7.6%
1,000
Units
Net Change in Inventory
Net Absorption
Vacancy Rate
9.9%
6.0%
11.0%
9.0%
7.0%
4.0%
800
4.2%
600
400
5.0%
3.0%
200
Vacancy Rate
1,400
1.0%
0
-1.0%
-200
-400
-3.0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 1Q
Dallas Metro Area
The Dallas metro area contains 24 submarkets. As shown on Map 3, the area stretches from
north Denton County northwest of downtown Dallas to the southern boundary of Dallas County.
The Dallas metro area does not include Keller, Grapevine, and Colleyville.
As shown in Table 25, the Dallas metro area’s total apartment inventory increased by 18,952
units between 2003 and 2007. Net absorption during the period reached 22,985 units. This
resulted in an under supply of 4,033 units, or approximately 807 units per year. The Dallas
metro area added 1,392 units in the first quarter of 2008, while net absorption dropped to 772
units.
Table 25: Net Change in Inventory and
Absorption, Dallas Metro Area, 2003-2007
Net
(Over)/
Change in Net
Under
Inventory Absorption Supply
Year
2003
4,520
(508) (5,028)
2004
4,105
1,164 (2,941)
2005
2,919
10,887
7,968
2006
3,856
3,235
(621)
2007
3,552
8,207
4,655
Total
18,952
22,985
4,033
Annual Avg.
3,790
4,597
807
Source: Reis
July 2008
24
As shown in Graph 2, the five-year under supply decreased the metro area’s vacancy rate from a
high of 10.4% in 2004 to a low of 7% in 2007. In the first quarter of 2008, the vacancy rate
increased slightly to 7.1%. Absorption fluctuated significantly during the period and was
particularly strong in 2005 and 2007.
Graph 2: Apartment Trends, Dallas Metro Area, 2003-2008 1Q
14.0%
18,000
Net Change in Inventory
16,000
14,000
Vacancy Rate
9.7%
10.0%
8.2%
12,000
Units
12.0%
Net Absorption
10.4%
8.3%
7.0%
10,000
7.1%
8.0%
6.0%
8,000
6,000
4.0%
4,000
2.0%
2,000
0.0%
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 1Q
The CMA captured 8% of the net absorption within the Dallas metro area in the past five years
(Table 26). In 2003, when both the CMA and the Dallas metro experienced negative net
absorption, the CMA accounted for 43.5% of the overall negative absorption seen in the Dallas
market. The CMA’s market share of net absorption appears to support the argument that the
CMA is a relatively built-out area in comparison to the overall Dallas market.
Table 26: Net Absorption, CMA and
Dallas Metro, 2003-2007
Dallas
CMA %
Year
CMA Metro
of Dallas
2003
-221
-508
43.5%
2004
-161
1,164
-13.8%
2005
740
10,887
6.8%
2006
519
3,235
16.0%
2007
962
8,207
11.7%
Total
1,839
22,985
8.0%
Annual Avg.
368
4,597
8.0%
Source: Reis
July 2008
25
4.3.2
Vacancy
As shown in Graph 3, both the CMA and the Dallas metro area have experienced improving
vacancy rates since 2004. Both reached period lows in 2007, and experienced slight increases in
vacancy in the first quarter of 2008. The CMA’s vacancy rate improved more dramatically than
the Dallas metro area’s reaching a period low of 4% compared to 7% for the metro area.
Graph 3: Vacancy Rate Trend, CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 20042008 1Q
12%
10.4%
CMA
Vacancy Rate
10%
9.9%
8.2%
8.3%
8%
Dallas Metro Area
7.0%
7.1%
4.0%
4.2%
2007
2008 1Q
7.6%
6%
6.0%
4%
2%
2004
4.3.3
2005
2006
Monthly Rent
Both the Dallas metro area and the CMA have experienced increasing aggregate asking rents
since 2004, with the CMA consistently averaging about $25 more per month than the Dallas
metro area (Graph 4). The Dallas metro area’s aggregate asking rent increased 7% from $742 to
$794. This equates to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.7%. The CMA’s
monthly rent increased 6.9% since 2004 from $767 to $820. This equates to a CAGR of 1.49%,
which is slightly below that of the Dallas metro area.
Graph 4: Rent Trends, CMA and Dallas Metro Area, 2004-2008 1Q
$900
Carrollton/Addison/Coppell
Dallas Metro Area
$850
$820
$807
$800
$767
$777
$786
$788
$794
$750
$759
$742
$747
2004
2005
$700
July 2008
2006
2007
2008 1Q
26
5.
Comparable Mixed-Use Apartment Communities
This section analyzes the unit mix, current vacancy rates, and rents for five comparable mixeduse communities (Map 4). The comparables shown in Table 27 were selected on the basis of
quality, age, and size.
5.1
Comparable Summary
The five comparable communities contain a total of 1,918 units completed between 1997 and
2007. Individual communities range from 229 units in the second phase of Eastside Village to
1,334 units at Post Addison Circle. The aggregate unit mix is 76.5% studios/one-bedrooms,
23.1% two-bedrooms, and 0.4% three-bedrooms. The overall vacancy rate is 5.8%, ranging
from 4.6% at Amli at La Villita to 6.6% at Eastside Village.
Table 27: Comparable Mixed-Use Apartment Communities, May 2008
Map
Key Community
1 Post Addison Circle
2 Post Legacy
3 Amli at La Villita
4 Legacy Village Residences-Ph 2
5 Eastside Village-Ph 2
Total/Avg.
Share
Location
5009 Addison Circle, Addison
5741 Martin Rd, Plano
6419 Tranquilo, Irving
7001 Parkwood Blvd, Plano
1404 Vontress, Plano
Owner/
Manager
Post Properties
Post Properties
AMLI
UDR
Pinnacle
Year
Unit Mix
Vac.
Open 1BR 2BR 3BR Total Rate
1997 1,041
282
11 1,334 5.8%
2000
293
91
0
384 6.0%
2007
210
96
0
306 4.6%
2004
199
56
0
255 6.3%
2001
175
54
0
229 6.6%
1,918
579
11 2,508 5.8%
76.5% 23.1% 0.4%
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Rent/ Parking
Rent
Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Ratio1.
$1,571 1,191 $1.32
1.33
$900
858 $1.05
1.11
$1,099
918 $1.20
1.77
$961
798 $1.20
1.29
$923
776 $1.19
1.98
$1,260 1,008 $1.25
1.50
Sources: REIS and Warren & Associates.
1. Parking spaces include garages
The average 1,008-square-foot unit rents for $1,260, or $1.25 per square foot. Community
averages range from $1.05 per square foot at Post Legacy, in Plano, to $1.32 per square foot at
Post Addison Circle in Addison. The number of parking spaces per unit ranges from 1.11 at Post
Legacy to 1.98 at Eastside Village. Post Addison Circle, Eastside Village, and Post Legacy have
structured parking for residents and guests.
Post Properties and Amli now use demand-based computer pricing models that adjust rent on a
daily basis. The pricing program attempts to balance turnover by setting rental rates. All rates
are available on the internet and are the same as those quoted by leasing agents. Rates are
provided for specific units and are dependent upon move-in date. Prospective tenants can apply
for and lease specific apartments directly from the community’s website. The website is updated
immediately for availability, and prospective tenants can apply for and hold units on the website.
As shown on Map 4, all of the mixed-use comparables except Post Addison Circle are located
outside the CMA. Amli at La Villita is the only comparable that does not have retail located in
the mixed-use development.
July 2008
27
Map 4: Comparable Mixed-Use Apartment Communities
July 2008
28
5.2
Studio/One-bedroom
Studio/one-bedrooms are the most prevalent unit type, representing 76.5% of the comparable
inventory. The 1,918 units are currently 5.6% vacant (Table 28). Vacancy rates range from
4.8% at Amli at La Villita to 6.3% at Eastside Village. The average 766-square-foot unit rents
for $971, or $1.27 per square foot. Rents range from $1.07 per square foot at Post Legacy to
$1.37 per square foot at Post Addison Circle.
Table 28: Comparable Studio/One-Bedroom Apartments, May 2008
Community
Post Addison Circle
Post Legacy
AMLI at La Villita
Legacy Village Residences-Ph. 2
Eastside Village-Ph. 2
Total/Avg.
1-BR 1-BR Vac.
Units Vac. Rate
1,041
58 5.6%
293
16 5.5%
210
10 4.8%
199
12 6.0%
175
11 6.3%
1,918 107 5.6%
Avg. Avg. Avg. Rent
Rent SF
per SF
$1,039 758
$1.37
$775 726
$1.07
$937 806
$1.16
$1,103 932
$1.18
$788 648
$1.22
$971 766
$1.27
As shown in Table 29, adjusting the studio/one-bedroom per square foot rents for submarket
location and community age using a multi-variate regression analysis (Appendix Table I), the
average adjusted per square foot rent is $1.39.
Table 29: Age and Location Adjusted Comparable Per Square Foot Rents, Studio/OneBedrooms, May 2008
Submarket Age
Avg
Avg. Rent Year Adjustment Adjustment Adj. Rent
per SF1.
x3
Community
per SF
Open x1-x2
Post Addison Circle
$1.37 1997
$0.00
$0.18
$1.55
Post Legacy
$1.07 2000
$0.00
$0.14
$1.21
AMLI at La Villita
$1.16 2007
($0.19)
$0.02
$1.00
$1.18 2004
$0.00
$0.08
$1.26
$1.22 2001
$0.00
$0.13
$1.34
Total/Avg.
$1.27
$1.39
1. Adjusted using multi-variate regression analysis for community age and submarket location
July 2008
26
5.3
Two-bedroom
Two-bedrooms represent more than 23.1% of the total comparable inventory. As shown in Table
30, the overall vacancy rate is 6.7%, ranging from 4.2% at Amli at La Villita to 7.7% at Post
Legacy. The average 1,229-square-foot unit rents for $1,482, or $1.21 per square foot. Post
Addision Circle has the highest rent per square foot at $1.33, and Post Legacy has the lowest rent
per square foot at $1.01.
Table 30: Comparable Two-Bedroom Apartments, May 2008
Community
Post Addison Circle
Post Legacy
AMLI at La Villita
Total/Avg.
2-BR 2-BR Vac.
Units Vac. Rate
282
20 7.1%
91
7 7.7%
96
4 4.2%
56
4 7.1%
54
4 7.4%
579
39 6.7%
Avg.
Rent
$1,706
$1,299
$1,275
$1,233
$1,251
$1,482
Avg. Avg. Rent
SF
per SF
1,285
$1.33
1,284
$1.01
1,200
$1.06
1,089
$1.13
1,041
$1.20
1,229
$1.21
location and community age using a multi-variate regression analysis (Appendix Table II), the
Table 31: Age and Location Adjusted Comparable Per Square Foot Rents, TwoBedrooms, May 2008
Submarket Age
Avg
per SF1.
x3
Community
per SF
Open x1-x2
Post Addison Circle
$1.33 1997
$0.00
$0.18
$1.51
Post Legacy
$1.01 2000
$0.00
$0.14
$1.15
AMLI at La Villita
$1.06 2007
($0.14)
$0.02
$0.95
$1.13 2004
$0.00
$0.08
$1.21
$1.20 2001
$0.00
$0.13
$1.33
Total/Avg.
$1.21
$1.31
July 2008
27
5.4
Three-bedroom
One of the five comparables has a total of 11 three-bedroom units, comprising less than 1% of
the inventory. Post Addison Circle has one vacant three-bedroom (Table 32). The average
2,239-square-foot unit rents for $2,239, or $1.00 per square foot. Adjusting the comparable per
square foot rents for age and submarket location (Appendix Table III) resulted in an adjusted
average per square foot rent of $1.33.
Table 32: Comparable Three-Bedroom Apartments, May 2008
Community
Post Addison Circle
Total/Avg.
3-BR 3-BR Vac.
Units Vac. Rate
11
1 9.1%
11
1 9.1%
Avg.
Rent
$2,239
$2,239
Avg
Avg. Avg. Rent Adj. Rent
per SF1.
SF
per SF
2,239
$1.00
$1.33
2,239
$1.00
$1.33
location and community age using a multi-variate regression analysis (Appendix Table IV), the
Table 33: Age and Location Adjusted Comparable Per Square Foot Rents, ThreeBedrooms, May 2008
Submarket Age
Avg
per SF1.
x3
Community
per SF
Open x1-x2
Post Addison Circle
$1.00 1997
$0.00
$0.36
$1.36
Total/Avg.
$1.00
$1.36
5.5
Community Profiles
5.5.1
Post Addison Circle
Completed in 1997, Post Addison Circle was part of
Phase 1 of the sustainable project called Addison Circle.
Addison Circle is an infill mixed-use development
located north of Beltline Road along the western edge
of the Dallas North Tollway in Addison. Overall,
Addison Circle contains 124 acres, and is entitled for 6
million square feet of commercial space, 4.7 million
square feet of residential space, and 28 acres for public
use.
Post Addison Circle
July 2008
Post Addison Circle contains 1,334 apartments, 41,000
square feet of office, 108,725 square feet of retail and a
234-unit self-storage facility. The community was built
28
in three phases. The apartments are located above ground-level retail. The buildings each
surround an internal courtyard with a pool.
Among the 13 floorplans, seven are one-bedrooms, four are two-bedrooms, and two are three
bedroom plans. The mix is 78% one bedrooms, 21% two bedrooms, and 0.8% three-bedrooms.
One-bedrooms range from 428 to 1,446 square feet. Two-bedroom plans range from 1,024 to
2,360 square feet, and the three bedroom plans range from 1,275 to 1,615 square feet. On the
day of our site visit in May, there were several leasing agents on duty with no wait for assistance.
The leasing agent offered various units with lease terms ranging from four to 15 months. The
leasing agent offered to waive the application fee and offered one month free rent to sign a lease.
Features & Amenities
Post Addison Circle offers nine- to ten-foot vaulted ceilings, washer/dryer connections, track
lighting, high speed internet access, patios/balconies, and scored concrete floors. Kitchens
feature Formica counter tops, wood veneer cabinets, and hardwood floors. Concrete flooring is
standard, but select units have hardwoods.
Community amenities include ground-level retail, an on-site fitness club, business center, storage
facilities, gated structured parking, trash chutes, controlled access and guest apartments. One
free parking space is provided in the parking decks per occupant.
Availability
As shown in Graph 5, 79 units are coming available through August 2008, including 58 onebedrooms and 20 two-bedrooms, and one three-bedroom. On average, about 1% of the one- and
two-bedrooms become available each month.
Graph 5: Apartment Availability, Post Addison Circle, May 2008
25
Available Units
One-Bedrooms
20
Two-Bedrooms
Three-Bedrooms
15
10
5
0
May
July 2008
June
July
August
29
Rents
Available one-bedroom per square foot rents range from a low of $1.09 per square foot for 919
square feet to a high of $1.46 per square foot for 786 square feet. Two-bedrooms range from a
low of $1.07 for 1,584 square feet to a high of $1.27 per square foot for 1,228 square feet. The
three-bedroom is available for $1.22 per square foot for 1,615 square feet (Graph 6).
Graph 6: Available Units by Per Square Foot Price
and Size, Post Addison Circle, May 2008
$1.60
One-Bedrooms
$1.50
Price per Sq ft
Two-Bedrooms
$1.40
Three-Bedrooms
$1.30
$1.20
$1.10
$1.00
$0.90
200
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
Unit Size (Sq ft)
Floor Premiums
Floor premiums are calculated by comparing the average per square foot price of available units
on each floor to the average per square foot price of all available units. Except when available,
no price adjustments have been made to units for premiums or upgrades. As shown in Graph 7,
the highest per square foot rent premiums occur on the first floor. One-bedrooms are offered at a
$0.03 per square foot premium compared to the overall average per square foot price. Twobedrooms have an even larger first floor premium of $0.08 per square foot. There is also a
premium for the top floor one bed-rooms. Top floor one-bedrooms are offered at a $0.02 per
square foot premium.
July 2008
30
Per Sq ft Price Premium
Graph 7: Estimated Floor Price Premiums, Post Addison Circle,
May 2008
$0.09
One-Bedrooms
$0.07
Two-Bedrooms
$0.05
$0.03
$0.01
$(0.01)
$(0.03)
1
2
3
Floor
4
6
Additional Fees
There are three additional fees at Post Addison Circle: a $150 administrative fee, a $100
application fee, and a $100 security deposit. Full-grown dogs and cats weighing up to 35 pounds
are accepted. The pet deposit is $500 for cats and small dogs (under 30 pounds), of which $150
is refundable. For large dogs, the deposit is $1,000, of which $250 is refundable. Certain pet
breeds are not accepted. Use of the on-site fitness facility is $44 per month and an additional
$39 per month for a spouse.
5.5.2
Post Legacy
Built in 2000, Post Legacy is located in Legacy Town Center off the North Dallas Tollway in
Plano. Legacy Town Center is the first development in the country to build a town center in an
existing office park. The 150 acre project includes retail, office, lodging, and apartments. Urban
amenities include five acres of public parks and a four-acre lake. Many of the buildings are
integrated with different uses. For example, many of the apartment buildings in the town center
have first-floor shops.
Post Legacy contains 384 apartments, 5,699
square feet of retail, and 1,112 square feet of
restaurant space. The buildings each surround an
internal courtyard with a pool.
Among the ten floorplans, six are one-bedrooms,
and four are two-bedrooms. The mix is 76.3%
one bedrooms, and 23.7% two bedrooms. Onebedrooms range from 493 to 910 square feet.
Two-bedroom plans range from 1,017 to 1,650
square feet. On the day of our site visit in May,
there were several leasing agents on duty with no
Post Legacy
July 2008
31
wait for assistance. The leasing agent offered three-, six-, and 12-month lease terms, and did not
offer any concessions.
Post offers nine- to ten-foot vaulted ceilings, washer/dryer connections, fireplaces, high-speed
internet connections, patios/balconies, and hardwood floors. Most kitchens feature Formica
counter tops, built-in microwaves, and wood veneer cabinets, but some have been upgraded with
granite countertops and stainless steel appliances.
Community amenities include on-site retail, pool(s), laundry facility, business center, storage
facilities, controlled structured parking, and controlled access. One free parking space is
provided in the parking deck per occupant.
Availability
As shown in Graph 8, 23 units are coming available through August, including 16 one-bedrooms
and seven two-bedrooms. On average, about 1% of the one- and two-bedrooms become
available each month.
Graph 8: Apartment Availability, Post Legacy, May 2008
9
Available Units
8
One-Bedrooms
7
Two-Bedrooms
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
May
June
July
August
Rents
square feet to a high of $1.29 per square foot for 761 square feet. Two-bedrooms range from a
low of $1.09 for 1,047 square feet to a high of $1.46 per square foot for 1,650 square feet (Graph
9). Per square foot rents have been somewhat skewed due to kitchen upgrades in a number of
units. According to the leasing agent, approximately 20% of the units have had the kitchens
upgraded with features such as slate countertops, stainless steel appliances, and hardwood or tile
flooring.
July 2008
32
$1.60
Graph 9: Available Units by Per Square Foot Price and Size,
Post Legacy, May 2008
One-Bedrooms
$1.50
Price per Sq ft
Two-Bedrooms
$1.40
$1.30
$1.20
$1.10
$1.00
$0.90
200
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
Unit Size (Sq ft)
Kitchens in the units are upgraded at a tenant’s request. A tenant can choose what they would
like upgraded, including the countertops, appliances, and flooring. As shown in Table 34, an
upgrade can add from $50 to $150 to the monthly rent. In addition to kitchen upgrades, smaller
upgrades including built-in bookshelves and accent walls can be added.
Table 34: Kitchen Upgrades
Prices, May 2008
Kitchen
Add'l
Upgrade
Rent
Slate countertops
$150
Stainless appliances
$50
Tile flooring
$50
Hardwood floors
$100
Source: Post Properties
Floor Premiums
As shown in Graph 10, one- and two-bedrooms have different floor premium pricing structures.
Top floor one-bedrooms are offered at a $0.03 per square foot premium, while first-floor onebedrooms are offered at a $0.05 per square foot discount compared to the overall average per
square foot price. Two-bedrooms have first floor units commanding about a $0.04 per square
foot premium, second-floor units have a $0.06 per square foot discount.
July 2008
33
Graph 10: Estimated Floor Price Premiums,
Post Legacy, May 2008
$0.08
One-Bedrooms
$0.06
Two-Bedrooms
$0.04
$0.02
$0.00
($0.02)
($0.04)
($0.06)
($0.08)
1
2
Floor
3
4
Note: As available, added rent from unit upgrades netted from unit prices
Additional Fees
There are two additional fees at Post Legacy: an $85 application fee, and a $250 deposit for a
one-bedroom, of which $100 is refundable. A two-bedroom requires a $300 deposit, of which
$150 is refundable. Full-grown dogs and cats weighing up to 80 pounds are accepted. The pet
deposit is $500 for animals under 30 pounds, and $1,000 for animals over 30 pounds. For small
animals, $150 of the deposit is refundable, and $250 for larger animals. Certain pet breeds are
not accepted. Unconditioned storage can be rented for $35 to $100 per month based on the
storage unit’s size.
5.5.3
AMLI at La Villita Phase 2
Amli at La Villita was completed in 2007, and is part
of the master-planned community of La Villita in
Las Colinas, located at the northeast corner of Royal
Lane and Riverside, south of Interstate 635 and the
Bush Turnpike. The 200-acre mixed-use residential
development features 1,375 apartment units by Amli
Residential and Lincoln Properties, 260 townhomes
by Portrait Homes and CityHomes, and 300 singlefamily homes by K. Hovnanian Homes and Darling
Homes. Amenities include a two-acre lake, two
AMLI at La Villita
canals, ten miles of trails, pocket parks, and
greenbelt areas. The development began construction in 2005, and completion is expected in
2008.
Amli at La Villita Phase 2 contains 306 apartments with four one-bedroom and three twobedroom floorplans. The mix is 68.6% one bedrooms, and 31.4% two bedrooms. Onebedrooms range from 706 to 954 square feet. Two-bedroom plans range from 1,070 to 1,258
square feet. On the day of our site visit in May, there were two leasing agents on duty with a
July 2008
34
five- minute wait for assistance. The leasing agent offered various units with lease terms ranging
from three to 14 months, and did not offer any concessions.
Amli at La Villita offers nine-foot ceilings, patios/balconies, hardwood or concrete floors, and
high speed internet access. Some units have full sized washers and dryers patios/balconies, and
scored concrete floors. Bathrooms have oversized garden tubs. Kitchens feature black Whirlpool
appliances, Cherry or Expresso cabinets with brushed chrome pulls, and ceramic tile
backsplashes. Some units have private fenced yards.
Community amenities include a resort style swimming pool, 24-hour fitness center, Cyber café
and business center detached garages, carports, and on-site clothes care center.
Availability
As shown in Graph 11, ten units are coming available through August, including eight onebedrooms and two two-bedrooms. On average, about 1% of the one-bedrooms and 0.5% of twobedrooms become available each month.
Graph 11: Apartment Availability, Amli at La Villita, May 2008
Available Units
7
6
One-Bedrooms
5
Two-Bedrooms
4
3
2
1
0
May
June
July
August
Rents
square feet to a high of $1.42 per square foot for 775 square feet (includes a special view
upgrade). Two-bedrooms range from a low of $1.13 for 1,170 square feet to a high of $1.21 per
square foot for 954 square feet (Graph 12).
July 2008
35
Graph 12: Available Units by Per Square Foot Price
and Size, Amli at La Villita, May 2008
$1.50
$1.45
One-Bedrooms
Price per Sq ft
$1.40
Two-Bedrooms
$1.35
$1.30
$1.25
$1.20
$1.15
$1.10
$1.05
$1.00
600
800
1,000
Unit Size (Sq ft)
1,200
Floor Premiums
As shown in Graph 13, per square foot rent premiums occur on the first floor. One-bedrooms are
offered at approximately a $0.06 per square foot premium compared to the overall average per
square foot price. Two-bedrooms have a $0.05 per square foot premium. Second floor onebedrooms have a $0.03 per square foot discount. There were no second floor two-bedrooms
available for comparison. Top floor one-bedrooms are offered at a $0.09 per square foot
discount, and two-bedrooms have a $0.02 per square foot discount.
Graph 13: Estimated Floor Price Premiums, Post Addison Circle,
May 2008
$0.08
$0.06
One-Bedrooms
$0.04
Two-Bedrooms
$0.02
$0.00
($0.02)
($0.04)
($0.06)
($0.08)
($0.10)
1
2
Floor
3
Additional Fees
There are three additional fees at Amli La Villita: a $125 administrative fee, a $50 application
fee, and a $200 security deposit. Up to two pets are allowed. For one pet, there is a $200
refundable deposit and a $300 non-refundable pet fee. For two-pets, there is a $200 refundable
July 2008
36
deposit, and a $600 non-refundable pet fee. Units with washers & dryers are given a $35 rent
premium. Detached garages are offered at $115 per month, and carport parking is offered at $45
per month.
5.5.4
Legacy Village
Built in 2004, Legacy Village is located within
the Shops at Legacy and the Legacy Business
Park, east of the North Dallas Tollway in Plano.
Legacy Village includes three and four-story
buildings fronting on Parkwood Boulevard. The
three main buildings have 199 one- and twobedroom units.
Among the 11 floorplans, one is a studio, six are
one-bedrooms, and four are two-bedrooms. The
mix is 63.6% studios and one-bedrooms and
Legacy Village
36.3% two bedrooms. Studios range from 560
to 588 square feet. One-bedrooms range from
623 to 1,240 square feet. Two-bedroom plans range from 937 to 1,265 square feet.
Legacy Village offers nine-foot ceilings, washer/dryer connections, covered parking and
detached garages, and private patios/balconies. Kitchens feature a breakfast bar and energy
efficient appliances, including a built-in microwave. Bathrooms have oversized garden tubs.
Carpeting is standard, but select units have hardwood flooring.
Community amenities include a clubhouse, fitness club, business center, storage facilities, gated
structured parking, trash chutes, controlled access and guest apartments. One space per occupant
can be purchased in the parking deck for $85.00.
Availability
As shown in Graph 14, 82 units are coming available through August, including 59 onebedrooms and 23 two-bedrooms, and one three-bedroom. Approximately 20 of the onebedrooms were available in May. On average, about 7% of the one- and two-bedrooms are
available each month. Approximately 37 of the two-bedrooms were available in May, but only 2
are coming available through August.
July 2008
37
C
Graph
G
14: Apartment Ava
ailability, Leg
gacy Village, May 2008
45
Available Units
40
One-Bedrooms
35
Two-Bedrooms
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
May
June
J
July
August
Rents
om per squaare foot rentss range from a low of $1.13 per squaare foot for 830
8
Availablee one-bedroo
square feeet to a high of $1.39 perr square foott for 950 squuare feet. Tw
wo-bedroom
ms range from
ma
low of $11.04 for 1,05
53 square feeet to a high of
o $1.47 per square foot for 1,483 sqquare feet (G
Graph
15).
Graph 15: Available
e Units by Pe
er Square Fo
oot Price
and Size, Legacy
L
Villag
ge, May 2008
8
Additionall Fees
There aree three addittional fees att Legacy Villlage: a $75 administrativ
a
ve fee, a $500 applicationn fee,
and a $1550 to $350 security depoosit dependinng on unit size. Full-groown dogs andd cats are
accepted with no weiight limit. The
T pet deposit is $500 for
fo cats and dogs,
d
of which $250 is
refundable. Certain pet
p breeds arre not accepted. Storagee units can be
b rented for $40 to $1600 per
month, depending
d
on
n size. A paarking space in a breezew
way garage is
i $55.00 perr month, whhile a
detachedd, covered gaarage is $85.00 per montth.
July 2008
8
38
5.5.5
Eastside Village
Located in historic downtown Plano, Eastside
Village is part of Plano’s vision to create a transit
village to stimulate revitalization. Eastside Village
is a mixed-use development that contains
apartments over ground-level retail.
The two phase project has a total of 470 apartments,
and over 37,000 square feet of retail, restaurant, and
office/flex space. Phase 1, completed in 2001, is
located along the Dallas Area Rapid Transit
(DART) red line at the Downtown Plano Station,
and contains two buildings. Phase 2, completed in
Eastside Village
2003, is located one block southwest of Phase 1 and
contains three buildings. All the buildings have interior courtyards.
The community has several floorplans for its 341 one-bedrooms and 129 two-bedrooms. Studios
and one-bedrooms range from 466 to 993 square feet. Two-bedroom plans range from 912 to
1,329 square feet, and live/work units range from 809 to 1,114 square feet. On the day of our
site visit in May, there were two leasing agents on duty with no wait for assistance. There were
very few units available, but the leasing agent offered a couple units with lease terms ranging
from seven to 12 months. There were no concessions offered.
Eastside Village offers nine- to 12-foot ceilings, antique hardwood floors, washer and dryers in
selected units, high speed internet access, patios/balconies. Most kitchens feature Formica
counter tops, GE appliances, and built-in microwaves, but some have stone kitchen countertops.
Bathrooms include ceramic tile floors and oversized tubs.
Community amenities include ground-level retail, a coffee house, central courtyard with pool,
24-hour fitness facility, business center, on-site storage, and trash chutes. Unassigned parking
spaces are provided in a controlled access parking deck.
Additional Fees
There are two additional fees at Eastside Village: a $300 deposit, of which $200 is refundable,
and a $50 application fee. Up to two pets are allowed, but there are breed restrictions. The pet
deposit is a non-refundable $400 for one pet, or $600 for two, of which $300 is refundable.
July 2008
39
6.
Development Activity
This section identifies apartment communities that are either under construction or proposed in
the apartment CMA (Map 5). The total number of units, estimated construction timeframe, and
quoted rents are provided, as available.
6.1
Under Construction Apartments
There are five apartment communities currently under construction in the Carrollton and
Addison areas, with 1,918 units scheduled for delivery by 2010 (Table 35). None are Transit
Oriented Development (TOD) projects. Fairfield Residential’s 15777 Quorum Drive in Addison
Circle will deliver 414 apartment units by the end of 2008, while the remaining units will be
completed in 2009 or 2010. The Mansions at Sunset Ridge will provide the greatest number of
units at 539; Vitruvian Park, however, is part of a greater redevelopment effort undertaken by
UDR (formerly United Dominion Realty) that will ultimately deliver approximately 5,500 units
to the west side of Addison. While three communities have already advertised monthly rents
ranging between $802 and $1,555, Lincoln at Mustang Park and Allegro Addison have not yet
reported rents.
Table 35: Apartment Communities Under Construction, CMA, June 2008
Map
Key
1
2
3
4
5
Total
Community
Mansions at Sunset Ridge
15777 Quorum
Vitruvian Park - Phase I
Lincoln at Mustang Park
Allegro Addision
Location
Carrollton Pkwy/Hwy 121
Quorum Drive
Brookhaven Club Drive
Plano Pkwy/KCS Railroad
Addison Circle/Spectrum Dr.
City
Carrollton
Addison
Addison
Carrollton
Addison
Developer
Carrollton Properties
Fairfield Residential
UDR
Lincoln Properties
SNK Group, Inc.
Est.
Units Comp. Quoted Rents
539
2010 $802 - $1,453
414
2008 $945 - $1,555
393
2010 $875 - $1,500
300
2009 Not set yet
272
2009 Not set yet
1,918
Sources: Warren & Associates
6.2
Proposed Apartments
There are three proposed apartment developments totaling 6,969 units in Carrollton and Addison
(Table 36). None are TOD projects. Construction is expected to begin this year on the 1,500unit Groves at Mustang Park. Keller Springs Lofts anticipates beginning construction of 362
units next year. The first phase of Vitruvian Park is currently under construction with 393 units
expected to be delivered by 2010; the remaining 5,107 units should be completed by 2017. UDR
purchased and will demolish nine old apartment complexes to make way for the $1 billion
Vitruvian Park project.
Table 36: Proposed Apartment Communities, CMA, June 2008
Map
Key
1
2
3
Total
Community
Vitruvian Park
The Groves at Mustang Park
Keller Springs Lofts
Location
Brookhaven Club Drive
Plano Pkwy/KCS Railroad
Keller Springs Rd./Addison Rd.
City
Addison
Carrollton
Addison
Total
Est.
Developer
Units Start
UDR
5,107
2010
Sterling Development
1,500
2008
Icon Partners
362
2009
6,969
Sources: Warren & Associates
July 2008
40
Map 5: Apartment Development Activity, CMA, 2008
September 2007
41
7.
Apartment Inventory and Vacancy Rate Forecast
7.1
Rental Unit Forecast
If all of the proposed apartment developments are constructed, including 330 units at the Raiford
Road site, the rental community inventory within the CMA could grow by 4,435 units by the end
of 2012 (Table 37). Given current developer plans, deliveries would escalate rapidly from 414
completions in 2008 to 1,999 units in 2010. Completions would decline to 725 units in 2012.
Although primary research was conducted to identify all existing and proposed development
activity in the area, additional unannounced projects could emerge by the time the Raiford Road
site is developed.
Table 37: Apartment Development Timeline, Competitive
Market Area, 2008-2012
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total
Beginning Inventory
32,503 32,917 33,489 35,488 36,213
414
15777 Quorum
414
300
Lincoln at Mustang Park
300
272
Allegro Addision
272
393
Vitruvian Park - Phase I
393
539
Mansions at Sunset Ridge
539
The Groves at Mustang Park
375
375
375 1,125
362
Keller Springs Lofts
362
Vitruvian Park
350
350 700
Raiford Road Site
330
330
Apartment Completions
414
572 1,999
725
725 4,435
Ending Inventory
32,917 33,489 35,488 36,213 36,938
Sources: Real Data and Warren & Associates.
7.2
Demand and Vacancy Rate Forecast
Since 2003, net absorption in the CMA has averaged 368 units per year, ranging from negative
221 to 962 units. Based on the completion and net absorption forecasts in Table 38, the CMA
vacancy rate could peak at 6.9% in 2010 before recovering to 6.4% in 2012. Delivery of the 330
units at the Raiford Road site in 2010 would contribute to the vacancy rate peak.
Table 38: Projected Vacancy Rate, Competitive Market
Area, 2008-2012
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Beginning Vacant Inventory
1,547 1,611 1,733 2,632 2,557
Plus Apartment Completions
414
572 1,999
725
725
Less Net Absorption
350
450 1,100
800
750
Ending Vacant Inventory
1,611 1,733 2,632 2,557 2,532
Total Ending Inventory
34,528 35,222 38,120 38,770 39,470
Vacancy Rate
4.7% 4.9% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4%
Sources: Real Data and Warren & Associates.
July 2008
42
8.
Apartment Product and Rent Recommendations
Apartment demand is highly correlated to job growth. In the last five years, the office submarket
surrounding Carrollton has added approximately 9,300 office-occupying jobs. This trend should
continue for the next five years.
The apartment market is very strong with a CMA vacancy rate of 4.2%. Over the last five years,
the CMA vacancy rate has consistently outperformed the Dallas Metro area’s vacancy rate,
which is currently 7.1%. The mixed-use comparable vacancy rate is only 5.8%, which is also
below that of the Dallas Metro Area’s.
Rental rates in the CMA have been consistently higher than those in the Dallas Metro area, and
the mixed-use comparables currently have an aggregate average per square foot rental rate of
$1.50. Given the strong demand and rent performance, a market-rate apartment community is
recommended for the initial phase of development on the Raiford Road site.
8.1
Target Market
The primary target market for apartments on the Raiford Road site is young professionals 20- to
35-years old. Although the greatest absolute change in CMA population is forecasted in the 4554 and 55-64 age cohorts, the majority of these persons will pursue ownership over renting.
Generally, these cohorts are in their peak wage earning years and will have the financial
capability to purchase a home.
Approximately 50%-60% of the initial residents will be moving from within the Dallas metro
area, with the balance relocating to the region for employment. With the greatest absolute job
growth in Dallas coming from office using and service sectors such as Professional and
Technical Services, Administrative and Waste Services, Health Care and Social Assistance, and
Management of Companies and Enterprises, these households will most likely have incomes
exceeding $50,000 annually.
8.2
Product Recommendations
At a density of 22 units per acre, a total of 330 apartments could be constructed on the 15-acre
site east of Raiford Road bordering the Forneaux Creek greenway (highlighted in Figure 2). The
15-acre site is recommended for apartments because it will create a link with the neighboring
12.5-acre site that will likely be developed with retail and/or a hotel and provide a buffer
between retail/hotel uses and for-sale housing. Higher density development will also support use
of the adjacent greenway. The site’s topography will allow for sweeping views in all directions,
with premiums achievable for greenway-facing units. The apartments could be constructed in a
combination of single- and mixed-use buildings. The mixed-use buildings would contain units
above professional office and/or retail space.
July 2008
43
15.0 Ac
Figure 2: Riford Road Site Rendering With Recommended Apartment Tract
Highlighted
8.3
Unit Mix
A total of 330 units are recommended for 15 acres of the Raiford Road site. Based on current
and forecasted market opportunities, the following unit mix is recommended (Table 38):
Table 39: Recommended Unit Mix,
Raiford Road Site, 2008
Heated
Unit Type Sq. Ft.
% of
Units Total
Studio
400-600
35 10.6%
1BR/1BA
600-850
215 65.2%
2BR/2BA 850-1,150
Total
80 24.2%
330 100%
The unit mix among the mixed-use comparables is approximately 76% studio/one-bedrooms,
23% two-bedrooms, and 0.5% three-bedrooms. The Raiford Road site should have a similar mix
of units, with the exception of no three-bedrooms.
July 2008
44
8.3.1
Studios
Among communities in the Carrollton/Addison/Coppell submarket, studios from 400 to 500
square feet are the most prevalent (Graph 16). There are no studios greater than 700 square feet.
Graph 16: Histogram of Studio Unit Sizes, 2008
Number of Communities
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
<300
300-400
400-500
500-600
600-700
>700
Unit Sizes (Sq ft)
8.3.2
One-bedrooms
Units ranging from 550-700 square feet and 700-850 square feet are by far the most prevalent
unit size for one-bedrooms (Graph 17). No one-bedrooms contain more than 1,000 square feet.
Graph 17: Histogram of One-Bedroom Unit Sizes, 2008
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
<400
400 - 550
550 - 700
700 - 850 850 - 1,000
>1,000
Unit Sizes (Sq ft)
July 2008
45
8.3.3
Two-bedrooms
As shown in Graph 18, two-bedrooms ranging from 850 to 1,150 square feet are by far the most
prevalent. However, a larger unit ranging from 1,150-1,300 square feet could also be
considered.
Graph 18: Histogram of Two-bedroom Unit Sizes, 2008
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
<700
700-850
850 1,000
1,000 - 1,150 - 1,300 - 1,450 - >1,600
1,150 1,300 1,450 1,600
Unit Sizes (Sq ft)
8.4
Rent
Based on an analysis of the Carrollton/Addison/Coppell submarket, the mixed-use comparable
community performance, and the proposed amenities of the Raiford Road site, the following
base rents and rents per square foot should be achievable in 2008 dollars (Table 40). These rents
are net of premiums that could be generated for specific views, floors and interior features. They
also do not reflect concessions that could be required during initial lease-up. These rents do
include adjustments for a new development in the Carrollton submarket.
Table 40: Rent Recommendation,
Heated
Rent Per
Monthly
Sq. Ft.
Sq. Ft.
Rent
Studio
400-600
$1.25-$1.30
1BR/1BA
600-850
$1.20-$1.25 $750-$1,020
Unit Type
2BR/2BA
Average
$520-$750
850-1,150 $1.10-$1.15 $980-$1,270
768
$1.21
Based on CMA trends, the Raiford Road site should expect to attain annual rental increases of
approximately 1.5-2.0% following lease-up. Of the comparables, only Eastside Village and
Legacy Village are offering specials for tenants. In July, Eastside Village was offering a 4%
July 2008
46
discount, which is most likely due to its location in downtown Plano. Legacy Village was
offering $600 off on the first month’s rent, which is most likely due to competitive pressure from
a other communities in the development. AMLI at La Villita, which remains in lease-up, is not
offering any rent concessions. If the Forneaux Creek greenway is in place, there are no
significant changes in the Dallas economy, and there are no additional new apartment
community developments, the Raiford Road site should require minimal lease-up concessions.
8.4.1
Studios
Given the potential to generate premiums for a mixed-use product, the Raiford Road site’s 400to 600-square foot studios should generate $1.25 to $1.30 per square foot (Graph 19). Studios
show a strong correlation between price per square foot and size. Smaller studios of
approximately 300 square feet have been able to generate rents of almost $1.70 per square foot.
Studios ranging from 400-500 square feet are currently commanding rents up to $1.32 per square
foot.
Graph 19: Studio per Square Foot Rents by Unit Size,
Carrollton/Addison/Coppell Submarket, 2008
$1.70
Studio
Raif ord Road Site
Price per Sq ft
$1.50
$1.30
$1.10
$0.90
$0.70
200
July 2008
300
400
500
Size (sq. ft)
600
700
47
8.4.2
One-bedrooms
Given the potential to generate premiums for a mixed-use product, the Raiford Road site’s 600to 850-square foot one-bedrooms should generate $1.20 to $1.25 per square foot (Graph 20).
One-bedrooms show a weaker correlation between per square foot price and size.
Graph 20: One-Bedroom per Square Foot Rents by Unit Size,
$1.50
One-bedroom
Raif ord Road Site
Price per Sq ft
$1.30
$1.10
$0.90
$0.70
$0.50
400
8.4.3
500
600
700
800
Size (sq. ft)
900
1000
1100
Two-bedrooms
As shown in Graph 21, the Raiford Road site should be able to generate two-bedroom rents
ranging from $1.10 to $1.15 per square foot. Among the mixed-use comparables, two-bedroom
per square foot rents range widely and do not show a strong correlation between price and size.
As a new mixed-use product, the Raiford Road site should command rents in the higher end of
the range.
Graph 21: Two-Bedroom per Square Foot Rents by Unit Size,
$1.50
$1.40
Two-bedroom
Price per Sq ft
$1.30
Raif ord Road Site
$1.20
$1.10
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80
$0.70
$0.60
$0.50
600
July 2008
800
1000
1200
Size (sq. ft)
1400
1600
1800
48
8.5
Absorption
Apartments at the Raiford Road site should be able to lease-up at a rate of 20-25 units per month,
reaching a stable 92% occupancy rate within 16 months. Most recently, the mixed-use
comparable AMLI at La Villita was able to achieve a lease-up period of ten months averaging
approximately 30 units per month. As shown in Graph 22, AMLI at La Villita was able to lease
up to 24% of its units in the first two months, with another 16% to 23% in successive two-month
periods until it achieved stabilized occupancy.
Graph 22: Lease-Up Pace, AMLI at La Villita, Los Colinas, 2007-2008
% of Units Absorbed
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0-2
2-4
4-6
6-8
8-10
Months in Market
Other recently opened communities in the Carrollton/Addison/Coppell submarket include
Spicewood Crossing and Estates of Coppell. Spicewood Crossing achieved lease-up in less than
a year and Estates of Coppell in just over one year.
July 2008
49
9. Single-Family
This section defines the single-family Competitive Market Area (CMA), which differs from the
CMA used for the apartment market, and outlines demographic trends and forecasts for the CMA
and the overall Dallas market. It also describes single-family market conditions including
building permits and closings for both the CMA and Dallas County.
9.1
CMA
As shown on Map 6, the single-family CMA for the Raiford Road site includes MLS Areas 10
and 22. It is generally bounded by Parker Road, Charles Street, and the Santa Fe Railroad to the
north; Coit Road to the east; Interstate 635 to the south; and the Trinity River to the west.
9.2
9.2.1
Demographic Trends
Population
CMA
There were 317,304 residents in the CMA in 2008, 10.3% more than in 2000 (Table 41). While
residents between the ages of 25 and 34 represented the largest age cohort, at 59,336 people, this
cohort was the only one to experience a population decrease between 2000 and 2008. There
were significant population increases in those age cohorts over the age of 55. The 55 to 64
cohort grew by 43.7%; 65- to 74-year-olds grew by 30.1%; 75- to 84-year olds grew by 47.1%;
and those over the age of 85 grew by 54.5%.
CMA, 2000-2008
Change
Age
Cohort
2000
2008 Number Percent
0-4
19,845
20,942
1,097
5.5%
5-9
18,695
19,038
344
1.8%
10 - 14
17,257
19,038
1,782
10.3%
15 - 19
16,106
19,038
2,932
18.2%
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
22,434
62,699
52,345
24,750
59,336
52,672
2,316
-3,363
328
10.3%
-5.4%
0.6%
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
38,540
21,858
11,217
46,644
31,413
14,596
8,104
9,555
3,379
21.0%
43.7%
30.1%
75 - 84
85+
Total
5,177
1,438
287,609
7,615
2,221
317,304
2,438
783
29,695
47.1%
54.5%
10.3%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
50
Map 6: Competitive Market Area – Single-Family, Raiford Road Site, 2008
July 2008
51
Population growth within the CMA is expected to increase slightly to 10.8% between 2008 and
2013, with a projected population of 351,519 people within the CMA by 2013 (Table 42). The
only age group predicted to decrease is the 35- to 44-year-old cohort, while the balance is
expected to grow between 3.4% (10- to 14-year-olds) and 42.4% (85+).
CMA, 2008-2013
Age
Cohort
0-4
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85+
Total
2008
20,942
19,038
19,038
19,038
24,750
59,336
52,672
46,644
31,413
14,596
7,615
2,221
317,304
2013
23,552
20,037
19,685
20,037
31,637
64,328
51,673
53,079
37,964
18,279
8,085
3,164
351,519
Change
Number Percent
2,610
12.5%
998
5.2%
647
3.4%
998
5.2%
6,887
27.8%
4,992
8.4%
-999
6,436
6,551
3,683
470
943
34,215
-1.9%
13.8%
20.9%
25.2%
6.2%
42.4%
10.8%
Source: ESRI
Dallas Metro Area
The definition of the Dallas metro area used for this demographic analysis can be found in the
Market-Rate Apartment section of this report.
There were 3,335,759 residents in the Dallas metro area in 2008, 17.4% more than in 2000 when
the population was just over 2.8 million (Table 43). Residents between the ages of 25- and 34years old represented the largest age cohort at 530,386 people. This cohort, however,
experienced the smallest population increase at only 2.0% between 2000 and 2008. The largest
population increases were in the 55- to 64-year-old age cohort and the 85+ age cohort, at 55.3%
and 46.7% growth, respectively.
July 2008
52
Change
Number Percent
40,968
17.4%
26,144
11.5%
33,190
15.8%
37,887
19.0%
Age
Cohort
0-4
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
2000
235,900
227,374
210,321
198,952
2008
276,868
253,518
243,510
236,839
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
210,321
520,117
488,854
243,510
530,386
527,050
33,190
10,268
38,196
15.8%
2.0%
7.8%
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
349,587
193,268
116,529
463,671
300,218
143,438
114,083
106,951
26,909
32.6%
55.3%
23.1%
75 - 84
85+
Total
68,212
22,737
2,842,172
83,394
33,358
3,335,759
15,182
10,620
493,587
22.3%
46.7%
17.4%
Source: ESRI
The population of the Dallas metro area is expected to increase by 348,281 residents, or 10.4%,
between 2008 and 2013 (Table 44). Like the CMA, the only age cohort expected to decrease in
population is the 35- to 44-year-old age cohort, although at a lesser rate than the CMA. The
remaining age groups are expected to increase in population from 6.0% (75- to 84-year-olds) to
25.9% (65- to 74-year-olds).
Change
Age
Cohort
2008
2013 Number Percent
0-4
276,868
305,775
28,907
10.4%
5-9
253,518
272,619
19,101
7.5%
10 - 14
243,510
257,883
14,372
5.9%
15 - 19
236,839
254,199
17,360
7.3%
20 - 24
243,510
283,671
40,161
16.5%
25 - 34
530,386
571,026
40,641
7.7%
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85+
Total
527,050
463,671
300,218
143,438
83,394
33,358
3,335,759
523,134
530,502
375,772
180,518
88,417
40,524
3,684,040
-3,916
66,831
75,554
37,080
5,023
7,167
348,281
-0.7%
14.4%
25.2%
25.9%
6.0%
21.5%
10.4%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
53
9.2.2
Housing Units
CMA
There were an estimated 146,694 housing units in the CMA in 2008, an 11.2% increase from
2000 (Table 45). Vacancy increased 63.6% from 6,994 units in 2000 to 11,442 units in 2008.
As mentioned in the Market-Rate Apartment section, the higher vacancy is likely a product of
several trends, including a slower for-sale housing market, excess inventory, and the increasing
propensity toward multiple-home ownership among affluent households. Owner-occupied
housing units increased 8.6% between 2000 and 2008, and renter-occupied housing units
increased 7.9%.
Table 45: Housing Unit Trends, CMA, 2000-2008
2000
2008
2000 - 2008 Change
Tenure
Number
Owner Occupied
56,874
43.1%
61,758
42.1%
4,884
8.6%
Renter Occupied
68,090
51.6%
73,494
50.1%
5,403
7.9%
Vacant
6,994
5.3%
11,442
7.8%
4,448
63.6%
Total
131,958
100% 146,694
100%
14,736
11.2%
Source: ESRI
Housing units are expected to grow at a comparable 11.1% rate between 2008 and 2013 (Table
46). The number of vacant units will also increase, but at a much lower 18.2% rate between
2008 and 2013. The relative share of owner-occupied, renter-occupied, and vacant housing units
should remain steady.
Table 46: Housing Unit Forecast, CMA, 2008-2013
2008
2013
2008 - 2013 Change
Tenure
Number
Owner Occupied
61,758
42.1%
65,978
40.5%
4,220
6.8%
Renter Occupied
Vacant
Total
73,494
11,442
146,694
50.1%
7.8%
100%
83,409
13,521
162,908
51.2%
8.3%
100%
9,915
2,079
16,214
13.5%
18.2%
11.1%
Source: ESRI
Dallas Metro Area
There were an estimated 1,311,017 housing units in the Dallas metro area in 2008, an 18.7%
increase from 2000 (Table 47). Following the CMA trend, the number of vacant housing units
increased 84.3% to 206,081 in 2008. The number of owner-occupied housing units increased by
21.2% and the share of owner-occupied housing units increased from 52.0% to 53.1%. The
number of renter-occupied housing units only increased 6.9% from 2000 to 2008.
July 2008
54
Table 47: Housing Unit Trends, Dallas Metro Area, 2000-2008
2000
2008
2000 - 2008 Change
Tenure
Number
% Share Number
Owner Occupied
574,567
52.0%
696,150
53.1% 121,583
21.2%
Renter Occupied
468,493
42.4%
500,808
38.2%
32,316
6.9%
Vacant
61,876
5.6%
114,058
8.7%
52,182
84.3%
Total
1,104,936
100% 1,311,017
100% 206,081
18.7%
Source: ESRI
Housing units are expected to increase by 148,289, or 11.3%, from 2008 to 2013 (Table 48).
The number of vacant housing units will continue to grow at a faster rate than both owneroccupied and renter-occupied housing units. The share of owner-occupied units will decrease
slightly from 53.1% in 2008 to 52.1% in 2013, while the share of renter-occupied housing units
will remain steady. The share of vacant units will increase to 9.7%.
Table 48: Housing Unit Forecast, Dallas Metro Area, 2008-2013
2008
2013
2008 - 2013 Change
Tenure
Number
% Share Number
Owner Occupied
696,150
53.1%
760,298
52.1%
64,148
9.2%
Renter Occupied
Vacant
Total
500,808
114,058
1,311,017
38.2%
557,455
8.7%
141,553
100% 1,459,306
38.2%
9.7%
100%
56,646
27,494
148,289
11.3%
24.1%
11.3%
Source: ESRI
9.2.3
Households by Income
The CMA median household income grew 32.8% from $55,171 in 2000 to $73,247 in 2008
(Table 49). While the median household income is higher in the CMA than the Dallas metro
area, income grew at a faster rate of 36.8% in the metro area.
Table 49: Median Household Income Trends,
2000 - 2008 Change
Geography
2000
2008 Number Percent
CMA
$55,171
$73,247
$18,076
32.8%
Dallas Metro Area
$48,351
$66,160
$17,809
36.8%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
55
The median household income in both the CMA and the Dallas metro area is projected to grow
at a rate just over 15% from 2008 to 2013 (Table 50). The median incomes in the CMA should
remain approximately $8,000 more than the corresponding measure for the Dallas metro area.
Table 50: Median Household Income Forecast,
2008 - 2013 Change
Geography
2008
2013 Number Percent
CMA
$73,247 $84,723 $11,476
15.7%
Dallas Metro Area
$66,160 $76,457 $10,297
15.6%
Source: ESRI
CMA
There were an estimated 135,269 households in the CMA in 2008, up 8.2% since 2000 (Table
51). Households earning more than $200,000 annually comprised the fastest growing income
cohort in the CMA between 2000 and 2008, up by 5,359 households or 89.3% in eight years.
There was also significant growth in the number of households earning between $100,000 and
$149,999 per year. The number of households earning less than $50,000 decreased in the CMA.
Table 51: Household Trends by Income Cohort, CMA, 2000-2008
2000 - 2008 Change
Household Income
2000
2008 Number Percent
<$15,000
8,380
5,681
-2,698
-32.2%
$15,000 - $24,999
10,381
6,087
-4,294
-41.4%
$25,000 - $34,999
15,133
9,063
-6,070
-40.1%
$35,000 - $49,999
21,887
18,532
-3,355
-15.3%
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
26,640
15,509
15,133
30,030
22,996
22,860
3,390
7,487
7,727
12.7%
48.3%
51.1%
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
6,003
6,003
125,070
8,657
11,363
135,269
2,654
5,359
10,199
44.2%
89.3%
8.2%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
56
It is estimated that there will be approximately 149,403 households in the CMA by 2013,
representing a 10.4% growth rate since 2008 (Table 52). Higher income households will
continue to increase over the next five years, with those earning more than $200,000 growing
53.8%, followed by those earning between $100,000 and $149,999 at 42.5%. The number of
households earning less than $50,000 will continue to decrease across all income cohorts.
Table 52: Household Forecast by Income Cohort, CMA, 2008-2013
2008 - 2013 Change
Household Income
2008
2013 Number Percent
<$15,000
5,681
4,930
-751
-13.2%
$15,000 - $24,999
6,087
4,333
-1,754
-28.8%
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
9,063
18,532
30,030
22,996
22,860
8,657
11,363
135,269
5,827
14,193
34,363
23,755
32,570
11,952
17,480
149,403
-3,236
-4,339
4,333
759
9,709
3,295
6,118
14,134
-35.7%
-23.4%
14.4%
3.3%
42.5%
38.1%
53.8%
10.4%
Source: ESRI
Dallas Metro Area
There were an estimated 1,196,188 households in the Dallas metro area in 2008, up 14.6% since
2000 (Table 53). Like the CMA, households earning more than $200,000 increased at the fastest
rate across income cohorts, at 126.1% growth from 2000 to 2008. The largest income cohort,
those making between $50,000 and $74,999, only grew 15.2% in eight years. The number of
households earning less than $50,000 decreased across all income cohorts in the Dallas metro
area.
Table 53: Household Trends by Income Cohort,
2000 - 2008 Change
Household Income
2000
2008 Number Percent
<$15,000
119,010
90,910
-28,100
-23.6%
$15,000 - $24,999
113,790
81,341
-32,449
-28.5%
$25,000 - $34,999
132,581
99,284
-33,298
-25.1%
$35,000 - $49,999
172,251
165,074
-7,177
-4.2%
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
207,745
121,098
104,395
239,238
185,409
181,821
31,492
64,311
77,426
15.2%
53.1%
74.2%
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
34,450
38,626
1,043,947
65,790
87,322
1,196,188
31,340
48,696
152,241
91.0%
126.1%
14.6%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
57
There will be over 1.3 million households in the Dallas metro area by 2013, up 10.1% since 2008
(Table 54). Households earning more than $200,000 will continue to experience strong growth
at 70.5% from 2008 to 2013. Households making less than $50,000 a year will also continue to
decrease in the overall Dallas metro area.
Table 54: Household Forecast by Income Cohort,
2008 - 2013 Change
Household Income
2008
2013 Number Percent
<$15,000
90,910
81,676
-9,235
-10.2%
$15,000 - $24,999
81,341
61,915
-19,425
-23.9%
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
9.3
9.3.1
99,284
165,074
239,238
185,409
181,821
65,790
87,322
1,196,188
76,406
144,908
279,278
187,064
242,392
94,849
148,860
1,317,349
-22,877
-20,166
40,040
1,654
60,572
29,059
61,539
121,161
-23.0%
-12.2%
16.7%
0.9%
33.3%
44.2%
70.5%
10.1%
Market Trends
Building Permits
As shown in Table 55, the number of new residential building permits issued in the City of
Carrollton ranged from a high of 547 in 2003 to a low of 218 in 2006. Overall, single-family
houses accounted for 66% of building permits, compared with 34% for multi-family. No multifamily permits were issued in 2004 or 2006.
Table 55: Residential Building
Permits, City of Carrollton, 2003-2007
SingleYear
Family
2003
249
2004
503
2005
242
2006
218
2007
199
Total
1,411
% of Total
66%
MultiTotal
Family
Units
298
547
0
503
129
371
0
218
289
488
716 2,127
34%
Source: US Census
July 2008
58
Table 56 shows residential building permits issued in Dallas County from 2003 to 2007. Similar
to the City of Carrollton, of the 70,466 total permits issued, 64% were for single-family units.
Total permits ranged from a high of 15,448 in 2003 to a low of 12,264 in 2004.
Table 56: Residential Building Permits,
Dallas County, 2003-2007
SingleFamily
Year
2003
9,293
2004
9,398
2005
10,289
2006
9,730
2007
6,368
Total
45,078
% of Total
64%
MultiFamily
6,155
2,866
3,884
5,615
6,868
25,388
36%
Total
Units
15,448
12,264
14,173
15,345
13,236
70,466
Source: US Census
Table 57 shows Carrollton’s percentage of total Dallas County residential building permits
between 2003 and 2007. The City accounted for only 3% of the county’s permits over the fiveyear period. Annual shares ranged from a high of 4.1% in 2004 to a low of 1.4% in 2006,
indicative of an established market approaching build-out.
Table 57: Residential Building Permits,
Carrollton and Dallas County, 2003-2007
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total
Dallas
Carrollton %
Carrollton County of Dallas Cty.
547
15,448
3.5%
503
12,264
4.1%
371
14,173
2.6%
218
15,345
1.4%
488
13,236
3.7%
2,127
70,466
3.0%
Source: US Census
9.3.2
Closings
The CMA for single-family development includes Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Areas 22 and
10. The City of Carrollton is located within MLS Area 22. As shown in Table 58, single-family
closings in Area 22 have ranged from a high of 2,385 in 2005 to a low of 2,031 in 2007. There
were 585 closings in the first four months of 2008. Annualizing the year-to-date closings would
result in 1,755 closings in 2008. However, this estimate does not account for the fact that there
is typically slower sales activity at the beginning of the calendar year.
Table 58: Single-Family Closing Trends,
MLS Area 22, 2005-2008 YTD
Avg.
Avg. Sq. Avg. Price/
Ft.
Sq. Ft.
Year
Sales Price
2005 2,388 $168,337
2,009
$83.79
2006 2,387 $174,702
2,050
$85.22
2007 2,031 $176,988
2,050
$86.35
2008 YTD
585 $181,067
2,097
$86.35
Note: 2008 through April 30.
July 2008
59
The average sales price for single-family homes in Area 22 consistently increased over the
period, averaging $181,067 in the first four months of 2008. The average square footage of
single-family homes has also increased since 2005, topping out at 2,097 square feet in 2008. The
average price per square foot was fairly static, ranging from $83.79 in 2005 to $86.35 in 2007
and 2008.
Single-family closings in Area 10 have ranged from 1,841 in 2007 to 1,975 in 2006 (Table 59).
There were 414 closings in the first four months of 2008. Annualizing the year-to-date activity
would result in 1,242 closings in 2008, which could be a low estimate.
Table 59: Single-Family Closing Trends,
MLS Area 10, 2005-2008 YTD
Avg.
Avg. Sq. Avg. Price/
Ft.
Sq. Ft.
Year
Sales Price
2005 1,861 $265,404
2,754
$96.36
2006 1,975 $278,794
2,915
$95.63
2007 1,841 $276,304
2,814
$98.20
2008 YTD
414 $274,530
2,894
$94.87
Note: 2008 through April 30.
The average sales price for single-family homes in Area 10 fluctuated, ranging from a high of
$278,794 in 2006 to a low of $265,404 in 2005. The average square footage followed a similar
trend, fluctuating between 2,754 square feet in 2005 and 2,915 square feet in 2006. The average
price per square foot was relatively unchanged, ranging from $94.87 in the first four months of
2008 and $98.20 in 2007.
As shown in Graph 23, Area 22 has a consistently higher volume of sales activity than Area 10,
although the gap narrowed between the two areas in 2007. While both areas showed minimal
decreases in number of closings from 2005 to 2007, Area 22 decreased more than Area 10.
Graph 23: Single-Family Closings, MLS Areas 22 and 10, 2005-2007
3,000
MLS Area 22
Number of Closings
2,500
2,388
2,387
MLS Area 10
1,975
2,000
1,861
2,031
1,841
1,500
1,000
500
2005
July 2008
2006
2007
60
In the first four months of 2008, single-family homes in the CMA (Areas 22 and 10) have been
staying on the market for approximately 75 days, up from 61 days in 2007 (Graph 24).
Graph 24: Days on Market, MLS Areas 22 and 10, 2005-2008 YTD
80
75
70
66
Days on Market
60
59
61
2006
2007
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2008 YTD
Single-family homes in Area 10 have a higher average price per square foot than homes in Area
22 (Graph 25). However, the average price per square foot for Area 10 decreased by 1.5% from
2005 to 2008, while the average price per square foot for Area 22 increased by 3.1% during the
period.
Graph 25: Average Price Per Square Foot, MLS Areas 22 and 10, 2005-2008 YTD
Average Price Per Square Foot
$110.00
MLS Area 22
$105.00
MLS Area 10
$100.00
$98.20
$96.36
$95.63
$94.87
$95.00
$90.00
$85.00
$83.79
$85.22
$86.35
$86.35
$80.00
$75.00
2005
July 2008
2006
2007
2008 YTD
61
9.4
Comparable Projects
There are eight comparable single-family subdivisions in the CMA, all of them located in either
the Austin Waters or Castle Hills master planned communities (Map 7). There are a total of 861
lots in the eight comparables, 20.6% of which have been sold (Table 60). Average monthly
absorption has ranged from four lots at Sotherby’s Castle Hills – Phase V to 1.5 lots for both of
the Reserve at Castle Hills builders. Absorption has been averaging 2.1 units per month. At this
rate, there will be approximately 41 months of lot inventory in the eight comparable
communities.
Table 60: Comparable Single-Family Subdivisions, Inventory and Absorption, CMA, June 2008
Map
Key Subdivision
1 Castle Hills Phase V - Sotherby
2 Austin Waters - Darling Homes
3 Castle Hills - David Weekley 60's
4 Castle Hills Phase V - American Legend
5 Castle Hills - David Weekley 70's and 80s
6 Austin Waters - Highland Homes
7 Reserve at Castle Hills (Phase IV) - American Legend
8 Reserve at Castle Hills (Phase IV) - David Weekley Homes
Total/Average
Estimated Months
Total Sold
Monthly
Lot
Lots
Houses Absorption Inventory
135
2
4.0
33
92
12
2.4
33
134
85
2.0
24
137
2
2.0
68
44
30
1.7
8
44
13
1.6
19
138
21
1.5
78
137
12
1.5
83
861
177
2.1
41
9.4.1
Castle Hills
Sotherby, American Legend, and David Weekley
Homes are semi-custom home builders in the
2,500-acre master-planned Castle Hills
community. Castle Hills features retail
development, more than 20 neighborhood parks,
hiking and biking trails, an 18-hole golf course,
multiple swimming pools, and community-wide
celebrations.
The Reserve at Castle Hills
Sotherby Homes is developing 135 lots in Castle
Hill – Phase V, which is adjacent to the Highway
121 Bypass. Along with 13 base floor plans,
custom options include multiple living spaces,
game and media rooms, and wine grottoes.
American Legend Homes is building on the remaining 137 lots in Phase V, as well as 138 lots
with golf course and lake views at the Reserve at Castle Hills; six base floor plans are available.
Luxury features include stone fireplaces, gourmet kitchens with granite countertops and tumbled
tile backsplashes, jetted garden tubs, and an optional pre-wired game room. Fifty-foot home
sites at The Reserve at Castle Hills are also being developed by David Weekley Homes; 16 floor
plans are available for the 137 lots. Custom options include game rooms with built-in wet bars,
outdoor courtyard fireplaces, and flat screen television niches.
July 2008
62
Map 7: Comparable Single-Family Subdivisions, CMA, 2008
July 2008
63
David Weekley Homes is also developing 134 sixty-foot lots and 44 seventy- and eighty-foot
lots in Castle Hills. Along with 11 base floor plans available for the 60-foot lots and 11 different
floor plans available for the 70- and 80-foot lots, David Weekley’s custom options include prewired media rooms, three-car tandem garages, flat-screen television niches, and outdoor living
areas with built-in fireplaces and gas grills.
9.4.2
Austin Waters
Darling Homes and Highland Homes are developing a
combined 136 lots on 24 acres at Austin Waters, a
subdivision located in the master-planned Austin Ranch
community. Darling Homes is offering 92 fifty- and
seventy-foot lots at Austin Waters; five floor plans are
available for the 50-foot lots and five floor plans are
available at the 70-foot lots. Optional custom details
include kitchens with stainless steel appliances and
granite countertops, jetted garden tubs, designer
staircases with iron balusters, and stone fireplaces.
Highland Homes is developing 44 home sites at
Austin Waters
Austin Waters; six floor plans are available. Luxury
options include libraries with built-in bookshelves, game and media rooms, outdoor living areas
with built-in fireplaces and gas grills, and three-car garages.
9.4.3
Pricing Summary
There are currently 36 houses either completed or under construction being marketed in the eight
comparable single-family subdivisions (Table 61). American Legend’s Reserve at Castle Hills
has the most homes on the market at 14, while neither homebuilder in Castle Hills – Phase V has
any current listings or available inventory. The average price of a house in the comparable
communities is $491,107 and the average square footage is 3,610, resulting in an average price
per square foot of $136.05.
Table 61: Comparable Single-Family Subdivisions, Current Inventory and Pricing, CMA, June 2008
Subdivision
Castle Hills - David Weekley 70's and 80s
Austin Waters - Highland Homes
Austin Waters - Darling Homes
Reserve at Castle Hills (Phase IV) - David Weekley Homes
Reserve at Castle Hills (Phase IV) - American Legend
Castle Hills - David Weekley 60's
Total/Average
Current
Inventory
6
5
4
4
14
3
36
Price
Average
Range
Price
$499,990 - $829,990
$631,657
$614,990 - $716,990
$652,790
$402,990 - $625,990
$508,090
$371,375 - $471,990
$402,086
$279,990 - $372,990
$333,990
$399,990 - $436,064
$418,027
$491,107
Sq. Ft.
Avg.
Avg. Price/
Range
Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft.
3,800 - 4,800
4,333
$145.78
4,224 - 5,042
4,556
$143.28
2,732 - 4,265
3,616
$140.51
2,365 - 3,098
2,894
$138.94
2,000 - 3,238
2,746
$121.63
3,412 - 3,614
3,513
$118.99
3,610
$136.05
The Austin Waters – Highland Homes development has the most expensive average house price
at $652,790 and offers the largest homes at an average of 4,556 square feet. American Legend’s
Reserve at Castle Hills has the least expensive and smallest home of the comparables. David
Weekley’s Castle Hills 70’s and 80’s subdivision has the highest average price per square foot at
$145.78 and their Castle Hills 60’s development has the lowest average price per square foot at
$118.99.
July 2008
64
9.5
Future Development Activity
There are four proposed single-family communities in the CMA, containing a total of 201 units
(Map 8). Austin Woods and Diamond Creek are expected to begin construction later in 2008
and Austin Waters – Phase 1B and Phase 2 are expected to begin construction in 2009 (Table
62). Austin Woods and both phase of Austin Waters are part of the master-planned community
of Austin Ranch.
Table 62: Proposed Single-Family Developments, CMA, June 2008
Map
Key
Development
1
Austin Woods
2
Diamond Creek
3
Austin Waters - Phase 1B
4
Austin Waters - Phase 2
Total/Average
Location
Plano Pkwy/Parker Rd.
Plano Pkwy
Plano Pkwy/Windhaven Rd.
Plano Pkwy/Windhaven Rd.
Developer
Hensly Lamkin Rachel Architects, Inc.
Platinum Series by Mark Mothan
Billingsley Company
Billingsley Company
Est.
Units Start
49 2008
6 2008
16 2009
130 2009
201
9.6
Site Recommendations and Forecasts
The opportunity for single-family development on the Raiford Road site is limited to the north
side of Furneaux Creek and the planned greenway. A narrow 11-acre parcel could be allocated
to single-family housing adjacent to two existing neighborhoods north and east of the site (shown
and highlighted in Figure 3). Cemetery Hill Road could be extended into the site to provide
access from Frankford Road.
11.0 Ac
15.0 Ac
Figure 3: Raiford Road Site Rendering With Recommended Single-Family Tract
Highlighted
July 2008
65
Map 8: Single-Family Subdivision Development Activity, CMA, 2008
July 2008
66
The Raiford Road site is an in-fill property that is well-positioned to accommodate higherdensity housing. As a result, single-family should be limited to the 11 acres that adjoin existing
neighborhoods.
9.6.1
Target Market
Because the site is not part of a master-planned community with family-focused recreational
amenity packages, the target market is primarily singles, young couples, and empty nesters
seeking detached product. This is also consistent with CMA and Dallas Metro Area
demographic forecasts that show a decline in population from ages 35 to 44 between 2008 and
2013. This age cohort, which represents the prime child-rearing years, is the only one expected
to decline.
The most rapid population growth, in both absolute and percentage terms, is expected in 20- to
34-year olds, and 45- to 64-year olds. These young adults and baby boomers/empty nesters are
both seeking locations and residences with urban amenities and connectivity.
Based on market and demographic research, the Raiford Road site would struggle to compete
with new high-income single family product in the north Carrollton communities of Castle Hills
and Austin Waters. These two master-planned developments, as profiled in this report, target
families seeking large lots, country club-type amenities, new schools, and closer proximity to
corporate jobs in Legacy.
9.6.2
Product and Pricing
Lots should be approximately 50 feet in width, supporting houses from 2,200 to 2,800 square
feet. At least one floor plan should have a first-floor master bedroom to accommodate the
empty-nester buyer. House prices would range from $290,000 to $400,000, or $132 to $143 per
square foot. Standard features should include the following:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stone or brick front elevations
Hand-scraped hardwood or upgraded tile floors in all main level living areas
Oak, maple, or clear glass kitchen cabinets
2-car garages
July 2008
67
9.6.3
Demand Forecast
CMA Household Growth
The CMA owner-occupied housing share is expected to decline from 42% in 2008 to 40.5% in
2013. These shares are well below the Dallas metro area shares of 53.1% and 52.1% for the two
time periods, reflecting the established neighborhoods and higher-density housing corridors in
the CMA.
Based on the forecasted net increase of 14,134 households in the CMA over the next five years,
and a 38% homeownership rate, there would be approximately 5,370 prospective new
homebuyers. Given the recommended sales prices, the target market households will earn
between $75,000 and $150,000 annually (2008 dollars), representing 74% of the 2008-2013
increase in the CMA. This results in 3,974 income-qualified new homebuyer households. If the
single-family target market is ages 25 to 34, and 45 to 64, the 52% share of growth produces a
pool of 2,066 prospective homebuyers. In 2008, single-family houses represented an estimated
80% of all CMA for-sale closings, corresponding to demand for 1,652 units by 2013. Given the
lack of land available for new single-family development in the CMA, the current 80% single
family share is likely to decline to 50% to 60% for new product over the next five years. This
will result in demand for 1,033 to 1,239 new single family units.
With 50-foot lot widths, the 11-acre site could contain a total of approximately 55 to 60 houses,
with 10% of the gross acreage dedicated to streets and utilities. This project would require a
capture rate of only 4.4% to 5.8% of the age, income, and tenure qualified target market of 1,033
to 1,239 units between 2008 and 2013.
Comparable Subdivisions
The eight comparable single-family subdivisions currently being marketed in the CMA are
collectively selling 200 houses per year. This would result in aggregate absorption potential of
1,000 houses over the next five years. This is less than the forecast of 1,033 to 1,239 units due to
the existence of subdivisions other than the identified comparables, particularly in MLS area 10,
and the current slowdown in the national and local housing markets.
At the 200-unit annual pace, the eight comparable subdivisions should be sold out in 3.4 years.
Although timing for four additional proposed projects is somewhat uncertain, the 201 houses
represent another year of inventory. The combined 885 unsold houses in these projects is less
than the 1,000 units that would be supportable at the current absorption pace, and well below the
1,033 to 1,239-unit forecast based on 2008-2013 household growth.
The average sales pace of 2.1 houses per month in the comparable subdivisions currently being
marketed in the CMA would equate to a 26- to 29-month absorption period for the Raiford Road
site. However, if the Furneaux Creek greenway is constructed as planned, and houses are priced
under $400,000, the sales pace should exceed the current average pace. Based on continued
economic expansion in the Dallas market, 2.5 to 3.0 houses per month should be sustainable,
resulting in an 18- to 22-month marketing period.
July 2008
68
10. Townhouses
This section describes townhouse market conditions, including average pricing for closings and
active listings in the for-sale CMA. It also identifies comparable townhouse developments
currently being marketed in the CMA, providing total units, pricing, size ranges, and estimated
monthly absorption. Future townhouse development activity is also described.
10.1 Market Trends
As shown in Table 63, there have been 37 townhouse closings in MLS Area 10 in 2008 YTD.
The average price of all sales was $227,625 and the average size was 1,885 square feet, for an
average price per square foot of $120. Units built between 2000 and 2008 had the highest
average sales price, $344,486, and the highest average price per square foot, $120. Units built
before 1980 had the lowest average price per square foot of $81, but due to their relatively larger
unit size, had a higher average sales price than units completed between 1980 and 1989.
Table 63: Townhouse Closings, MLS Area 10, 2008 YTD
Year
Average
Average Average
CompletedListings Price
Sq. Ft.
Price/Sq. Ft.
<1980
6
$188,413
2,348
$81
1980-1989
15
$128,103
1,292
$99
1990-1999
6
$249,500
1,827
$136
2000-2008
10
$344,486
2,076
$163
Total/Avg.
37
$227,625
1,885
$120
Source: Ebby Halliday
Of the 39 townhouse closings in MLS Area 22 in 2008 YTD, more than half were built between
2000 and 2008 (Table 64). The average 1,659-square foot unit sold for $156,749, or $92 per
square foot. No units built between 1990 and 1999 closed during the first five months of 2008.
Similar to Area 10, units built prior to 1980 were larger than units built between 1980 and 1989,
but in Area 22, the average sales price was lower as well.
Table 64: Townhouse Closings, MLS Area 22, 2008 YTD
Year
Average
Average Average
Completed Listings Price
Sq. Ft.
Price/Sq. Ft.
<1980
13
$103,508
1,615
$63
1980-1989
4
$111,125
1,221
$91
1990-1999
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
2000-2008
22
$255,614
2,142
$121
Total/Avg.
39
$156,749
1,659
$92
July 2008
69
Graph 26 compares average sales prices per square foot for townhouse closings in the two
Carrollton MLS submarkets. Prices per square foot have been consistently higher in Area 10
than Area 22. Disregarding units built between 1990 and 1999, for which Area 22 had no
closings, price differentials range from $8 per square foot for units built between 1980 and 1989,
to $42 for units built between 2000 and 2008.
Graph 26: Average Price per Square Foot, Townhouse Closings, 2008 YTD
$180
Price Per Square Foot
$163
Area 10
$160
Area 22
$140
$136
$121
$120
$99
$100
$91
$81
$80
$63
$60
$40
$20
$0
$0
<1980
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2008
Year Constructed
10.2 Active Listings
Table 65 shows active townhouse listings in MLS Area 10 as of May 2008. There are 68
listings, with an average listing price of $239,503, and an average size of 1,856 square feet,
which equates to $128 per square foot. Units built between 2000 and 2008 account for 63% of
the listings. Prices per square foot range from a low of $93 for the oldest units to $177 for newer
units.
Table 65: Active Townhouse Listings, MLS Area
10, May 2008
Year
CompletedListings
<1980
9
1980-1989
11
1990-1999
5
2000-2008
43
Total/Avg.
68
Average Average Average
Price
Sq. Ft.
Price/Sq. Ft.
$202,022
2,154
$93
$148,614
1,476
$101
$243,118
1,747
$139
$364,257
2,046
$177
$239,503
1,856
$128
July 2008
70
Similar to closings for Area 10, no units currently listed in Area 22 were built between 1990 and
1999. Of the 93 total units, 72% were built between 2000 and 2008. The average 1,839-square
foot unit is listed for $198,315, or $104 per square foot. Older units have the lowest average list
price ($129,295), while newer units have the highest ($307,766).
Table 66: Active Townhouse Listings, MLS Area 22, May
2008
Year
Average Average Average
Completed Listings Price
Sq. Ft.
Price/Sq. Ft.
<1980
20 $129,295
1,630
$79
1980-1989
6 $157,883
1,686
$95
1990-1999
0
N/A
N/A
N/A
2000-2008
67 $307,766
2,201
$139
Total/Avg.
93 $198,315
1,839
$104
Similar to closings, average prices per square foot for the townhouse active listings are
consistently higher for Area 10, ranging from a $6 per square foot premium for units built
between 1980 and 1989, to a $38 difference for units built between 2000 and 2008.
Graph 27: Average Price per Square Foot, Townhouse Active Listings,
May 2008
$200
$177
$180
Area 10
$160
Area 22
$139
$139
$140
$120
$100
$101
$93
$95
$79
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
$0
<1980
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2008
Year Constructed
July 2008
71
As shown in
Graph 28, the average price per square foot for active listings in Area 22 (Carrollton) is higher
than the average price per square foot for 2008 year-to-date closings for townhouses in all age
categories. For townhouses built between 2000 and 2008, the average price per square foot for
2008 year-to-date closings represented 87.1% of the average price per square foot for active
listings in Area 22.
Graph 28: Average Price per Square Foot, Townhouse Closings and
Active Listings, MLS Area 22, May 2008
$160
$140
$139
2008 YTD Closings
$121
Active Listings
$120
$91
$100
$95
$79
$80
$63
$60
$40
$20
$0
$0
$0
<1980
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2008
Year Constructed
10.3 Comparable Projects
There are six comparable townhouse developments in the CMA (Map 9); the single-family CMA
was also used for the townhouse CMA. There are a total of 339 units in the six comparables,
15.0% of which have been sold (Table 67). Average monthly absorption has ranged from 2.8
units at Quail Creek North to 0.5 units at the Shops at Prestonwood, Phase 1 – Vistas, and
Billingsley at Austin Waters. Aggregate absorption has been averaging an estimated 1.3 units
per month. At this rate, there will be approximately 30.9 months of inventory in the six
comparable communities.
Table 67: Comparable Townhouse Developments, Inventory and Absorption, CMA, June 2008
Map
Key Project
1 Quail Creek North
2 Paige Place
3 Parkview
4 Shops at Prestonwood, Phase 1 - Manors
5 Shops at Prestonwood, Phase 1 - Vistas
6 Billingsley at Austin Waters
Total/Average
Builder
Ryland Homes
North Haven
Ryland Homes
Parkway Builders
Parkway Builders
Billingsley
Estimated
Total Sold Monthly
Months
Units Units Absorption Inventory
66
28
2.8
14
10
4
2.0
3
48
14
1.2
28
46
2
1.0
44
75
1
0.5
148
94
2
0.5
184
339
51
1.3
30.9
July 2008
72
Map 9: Comparable Townhouse Developments, CMA, 2008
July 2008
73
There are currently 51 townhouses either completed or under construction being marketed in the
six comparable developments (Table 68). The Manors at the Shops at Prestonwood have the
most homes on the market at 18, while Paige Place has the fewest on the market at two. The
average price of a unit in one of the comparable communities is $317,128 and the average size is
2,301 square feet, resulting in an average price per square foot of $137.84.
Table 68: Comparable Townhouse Developments, Current Listings and Pricing, CMA, June 2008
Project
Shops at Prestonwood - Manors
Shops at Prestonwood - Vistas
Billingsley at Austin Waters
Quail Creek North
Parkview
Paige Place
Total/Average
Current
Unit
Listings
18
5
10
8
8
2
51
Price
Average
Range
Price
$399,990 - $499,990
$450,990
$279,990 - $339,990
$309,790
$279,900 - $339,900
$309,900
$176,990 - $211,622
$194,306
$188,176 - $196,861
$182,926
$189,950 - $199,950
$194,950
$317,128
Sq. Ft.
Range
2,307 - 3,312
1,708 - 2,317
2,055 - 2,513
1,571 - 2,065
1,673 - 1,996
2,010 - 2,200
Avg.
Avg. Price/
Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft.
2,817
$160.10
1,983
$156.22
2,284
$135.68
1,904
$102.05
1,804
$101.40
2,105
$92.61
2,301
$137.84
The Manors at the Shops at Prestonwood has the highest average unit price at $450,990 and
offers the largest homes at an average of 2,817 square feet. Parkview has the least expensive and
smallest unit of the comparables. The Manors at the Shops at Prestonwood have the highest
average price per square foot at $160.10 and Paige Place has the lowest average price per square
foot at $92.61.
10.3.1 Shops at Prestonwood – Manors
The Shops at Prestonwood is located at Hebron Parkway and Charles Road in northeast
Carrollton. A total of 380 townhouses are proposed, with the site divided east-to-west by a
greenway and extensive amenity center.
There are two different product types being constructed in this project: Manors and Vistas. A
total of 46 Manors are planned in Phase 1, of which 18 are currently being marketed. Units
range in size from 2,307 to 3,312 square feet, targeting the move-down buyer from Carrollton or
Plano. Prices range from $400,000 to $500,000, with the average of $160 per square foot the
highest among the comparables. All floor plans include elevators, with only one plan containing
a first-level master bedroom. All other master bedrooms are on the second level.
At the time this community was shopped in late May, Parkway Builders was offering a $20,000
buyer incentive discount, and 50% off all upgrades. A sales trailer was open seven days a week,
prior to completion of two model homes. Standard features include all-brick and stone exteriors,
stainless steel appliances, 3-centimeter granite kitchen countertops, wood-stair steps, 7.25-inch
baseboards, and eight-foot interior doors. Two units were under contract in late May.
Homeowner’s dues are estimated at $233 per month.
10.3.2 Shops at Prestonwood – Vistas
The Vistas at Shops at Prestonwood are targeted to a younger market than the Manors, with units
ranging from 1,708 to 2,317 square feet. Prices are $279,990 to $339,990, averaging $156 per
square foot. Units have the same interior features as the Manors, except there are no elevators or
July 2008
74
garages. As of late May, one of the 75 Phase 1 units was under contract. Homeowner’s dues are
estimated at $191 per month.
10.3.3 Billingsley at Austin Waters
These 94 townhouses are part of the Austin Waters
development off Plano Parkway in far northeast
Carrollton. The development also includes singlefamily houses by Darling Homes and Highland
Homes marketed for $400,000 to $725,000. The
townhouse builder is Billingsley, the developer of
Austin Waters.
Units feature stucco and brick exteriors with
contemporary elevations. All units have two-car
rear-loaded garages. As of late May, two units were
sold. Another ten units were on the market and
Billingsley at Austin Waters
completed or under construction. Prices range from
$279,900 to $339,900 for 2,055 to 2,513 square feet.
The average 2,284-square-foot unit is priced at $309,900, or $136 per square foot.
10.3.4 Quail Creek North
Ryland Homes is developing a total of 66
townhouses on the north side of Hebron Parkway
west of Josey Lane. Adjacent to the Trinity Medical
Center, Quail Creek North is the fastest-selling
comparable community, averaging 2.8 units per
month. At the time the project was shopped in late
May, the sales office/model home was also the
busiest, with three sets of prospective buyers touring
the property. All of the visitors were move-down
buyers in their 50s and early 60s.
Eight units were either in inventory or under
construction in late May, ranging from 1,571 to
2,065 square feet. Prices ranged from $176,990 to
$211,622. The average 1,904-square foot unit was being marketed at $102 per square foot,
almost exactly the same as at Parkview, Ryland’s other townhouse community in Carrollton (see
section 10.3.5 below). However, five floor plans are being offered at Quail Creek North, two
more than at Parkview.
Quail Creek North
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75
10.3.5 Parkview
Parkview is an in-fill community of 48 townhouses at East
Jackson Road and Josey Lane across from the Carrollton City
Hall. The builder is Ryland Homes. All three floor plans are
three stories, with rear-loaded two-car garages and small
studies or bedrooms. The main living area is on the second
level, with two bedrooms and two full baths on the third
level. Standard interior specifications include carpet, vinyl,
and ceramic flooring, pre-wiring for surround sound,
laminate kitchen counters, and recessed lighting.
Parkview
As of late May, 14 units were sold, equating to 1.2 units per
month. Another eight units were completed or under construction and being marketed. The
three floor plans range from 1,673 to 1,996 square feet, with prices from $188,176 to $195,861.
The average unit is priced at $101 per square foot. It should be noted that this community has
three model homes, all of which were open when shopped, but with no on-site staff present.
10.3.6 Paige Place
This ten-unit in-fill duplex project is located on Keller
Springs Road near Kelly Boulevard in central Carrollton.
Local builder North Haven was completing the first two
units in late May. Finishes and interior features are average,
with carpet and vinyl flooring, black appliances, and
standard cabinetry. All units have brick exteriors and frontloaded two-car garages.
A total of four units were under contract in late May. The
two units under construction contain 2,010 and 2,200 square
Paige Place
feet for $189,950 to $199,950. The average price is $93 per
square foot. These units are close to heavily-traveled, sixlane Keller Springs Road, with no visual or sound buffering.
10.4 Development Activity
There are five proposed townhouse communities in the CMA (Map 10), totaling 873 units (Table
69). Villas of Indian Creek and Asbury Circle were being graded in late May, but with no
vertical construction and no on-site sales offices. Villas Borghese will begin construction in
2009. It is uncertain when the Lakes at Mustang Park and Rosemeade Villas will begin
construction.
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76
Table 69: Proposed Townhouse Developments, CMA, June 2008
Map
Key
1
2
3
4
5
Total
Development
The Lakes at Mustang Park
Villas Borghese
Rosemeade Villas
Villas of Indian Creek
Asbury Circle
Location
Plano Pkwy/KCS Railroad, Carrollton
Old Denton Rd/Carrollton Pkwy, Carrollton
Rosemeade Pkwy/Old Denton Rd, Carrollton
Creek Valley Blvd/Indian Run Dr, Carrollton
Belt Line Road, Addision
Developer
Mustang Carrollton Properties
ALS Development
Hobart Development
DR Horton
Ashton Woods Homes
Est.
Units Price Range
Start
488
$175,000 - $270,000
N/A
63
$200,000 - $250,000 2009
43
N/A
N/A
207
$180,000+ 2008
72
$278,900 - $288,900 2008
873
10.5 Site Recommendations and Forecasts
The Raiford Road site is well-positioned for townhouses, with nearby retail centers and the
proposed Furneaux Creek greenway offering recreational amenities and pedestrian connections.
A 21-acre portion of the site north of the greenway and adjacent to the potential single family
component is the most competitive location for townhouses (shown and highlighted in Figure 4).
Access would be from Old Denton Road.
21.0 Ac
Figure 4: Raiford Road Site Rendering With Recommended Townhouse Tract
Highlighted
In order to develop the entire 21 acres, the existing small lake would have to be filled. Because
this lake offers a unique view corridor and amenity, it could be retained to generate premiums for
units facing the lake. These premiums could potentially partially offset the loss of value from a
smaller developable parcel.
July 2008
77
Map 10: Townhouse Development Activity, CMA, 2008
July 2008
78
10.5.1 Target Market
The in-fill characteristics of the Raiford Road site, along with its adjacency to the future
greenway, make it a strong candidate for townhouse development. It will attract buyers seeking
connectivity to retail, recreation, and eventually light rail transit at the future Trinity Mills
station. An emphasis will be first-time homebuyers ages 25 to 34, but the site’s proximity to
established neighborhoods also makes it competitive for empty nester and/or early retirement
buyers. As a result, a first-floor master bedroom floor plan should be included. National
housing surveys indicate that empty nesters increasingly prefer to remain close to their current
home, and many want to reside in neighborhoods with a diversity of ages and household types.
10.5.2 Product and Pricing
The recommended product for the Raiford Road site is similar to Addison Circle and Austin
Waters, with varying levels of density. An overall average of eight to nine units per gross acre
should be achievable, resulting in 170 to 190 townhouses for the entire 21 acre parcel. If the lake
remains, there would be potential for 110 to 125 units on approximately 14 acres.
Addison Circle is essentially built-out, but Austin Waters is still in preliminary stages of
construction. Both projects have rear-loaded, alley-fed two-car garages. They also feature
predominantly brick and stucco exteriors. Addison Circle re-sales on the market at the end of
May are summarized in Table 70. Units two to three years old range from 1,667 to 2,244 square
feet, with an average price of $171 per square foot. The only new townhouse comparable
currently being marketed that approximates this pricing is Shops at Prestonwood at $156 to $160
per square foot. Austin Waters is averaging $135 per square foot.
Table 70: Addison Circle Re-Sales, May 2008
Year
Price/
Address
Built
Price
Sq. Ft.
Sq. Ft.
15807 Spectrum Drive
2006
$399,900
2,244
$178.21
5011 Morris Avenue
2005
$289,900
1,682
$172.35
15735 Seabolt Place
2005
$269,000
1,667
$161.37
Average
$319,600
1,864
$171.43
Townhouses on the Raiford Road site should contain 1,700 to 2,200 square feet, with four to five
floor plans offering three bedrooms and two and one-half baths. The largest floor plan should
have a first-floor master bedroom to attract empty-nester buyers.
Townhouse prices should range from $190,000 to $275,000, or $105 to $119 per square foot. An
average of $112 per square foot reflects a discount of 35% from Addison Circle’s re-sale listings.
Addison Circle offers an urban streetscape and pedestrian connections to office towers along the
Dallas North Tollway. The recommended pricing is also 15%-20% lower than Billingsley at
Austin Waters, which is part of an affluent master planned community with superior access to
jobs and regional shopping at Legacy and along the Tollway. However, the site can command a
premium over projects such as Parkview, Paige Place, and Quail Creek North.
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79
Standard townhouse features should include the following:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Brick front elevations, with some siding or stone accents
Wood, tile, and carpeted flooring
2-car garages
10.5.3 Demand Forecast
CMA Household Growth
The CMA owner-occupied housing share is expected to decline from 42% in 2008 to 40.5% in
2013. These shares are well below the Dallas Metro Area shares of 53.1% and 52.1% for the
two time periods, reflecting the established neighborhoods and higher-density housing corridors
in the CMA.
Based on the forecasted net increase of 14,134 households in the CMA over the next five years,
and a 38% homeownership rate, there would be approximately 5,370 prospective new
homebuyers. Given the recommended townhouse prices, the target market households will earn
between $55,000 and $90,000 annually (2008 dollars), representing 33% of the 2008-2013
growth in the CMA. This results in 1,772 income-qualified new townhouse buyer households.
If the townhouse target market is householders aged 25 to 34, and 45 to 74, the 63% share of
growth produces a pool of 1,116 prospective homebuyers.
In 2008, townhouses represented an estimated 15% of all CMA closings, corresponding to
demand for 167 units by 2013. The 15% share is likely to increase 25% to 30% over the next
five years with a diminishing supply of land available. This would increase demand to 279 to
335 units.
Comparable Developments
The five comparable townhouse developments currently being marketed in the CMA are
collectively selling 96 townhouses per year. Including other projects not profiled in this report,
particularly in MLS Area 10 in Plano, the aggregate absorption pace is probably 150-200 units
annually. This would result in aggregate absorption potential of 750 to 1,000 units over the next
five years. This is far more than the demographic forecast method due to the recent transition
toward, and greater acceptance of, higher density housing close to jobs, retail services and
recreation. Aging of baby boomers and the entry of the baby boom-let generation into the
workforce will accelerate demand for attached for-sale housing.
The average sales pace of 1.3 townhouses per month in the comparable projects currently being
marketed in the greater Carrollton area would be inadequate for a townhouse development on the
Raiford Road site. However, if the Furneaux Creek greenway is constructed as planned, and
units are priced under $275,000, the Raiford Road sales pace should significantly exceed the
current average. Based on continued economic expansion in the Dallas market, growth among
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80
major employers in the Carrollton area, and recovery in the national and regional housing
market, 2.5 to 3.0 units per month should be achievable.
Although townhouse demand is lower than single-family based on trends, the rising price of
gasoline and demographic changes are causing a shift in housing demand toward attached
product in more urban settings close to employment centers. This trend will benefit the Raiford
Road site, and make attached townhouse product more marketable than current data could
indicate.
July 2008
81
11. Senior Apartments
This section analyzes senior housing. It includes a demographic analysis of senior (over age 55)
household and income trends using the for-sale CMA. It also looks at comparable market-rate
apartment and market-rate for-sale senior communities near the site.
11.1 Demographic Trends and Forecasts
11.1.1 Households by Age
CMA
There were approximately 32,341 senior (over the age of 55) households in the for-sale housing
CMA in 2008, representing a 34.5% increase from 2000 (Table 71). Households over the age of
75 experienced the strongest period growth at 43.4%m while households between the ages of 65
and 74 experienced the slowest growth at 22.6%.
Table 71: Senior Household Trends by Age Cohort,
CMA, 2000-2008
2000 - 2008 Change
Number Percent
Cohort 2000
2008
55 - 64
65 - 74
75+
Total
13,468
6,922
3,650
24,040
18,623
8,485
5,233
32,341
5,155
1,563
1,583
8,301
38.3%
22.6%
43.4%
34.5%
Source: ESRI
The growth in senior households is forecasted to slow between 2008 and 2013, although growth
still remains strong at 20.5% (Table 72). Households over the age of 75 will continue to
experience the highest growth rate of 24.8% among the senior cohorts.
Table 72: Senior Household Forecast by Age Cohort,
CMA, 2008-2013
2008 - 2013 Change
Cohort 2008
2013
Number Percent
55 - 64
65 - 74
75+
Total
18,623
8,485
5,233
32,341
22,106
10,348
6,529
38,983
3,483
1,863
1,296
6,642
18.7%
22.0%
24.8%
20.5%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
82
Dallas Metro Area
The Dallas metro area had nearly 325,000 senior households in 2008, up 33.8% from 2000. This
is slightly lower than the growth rate seen by the CMA (
Table 73). Unlike the CMA, households between the ages 55 and 64 in the Dallas metro area
experienced the highest growth rate in the eight-year span at 49.6%.
Table 73: Senior Household Trends by Age Cohort,
2000 - 2008 Change
Number Percent
Cohort 2000
2008
55 - 64
65 - 74
75+
Total
115,067
71,416
56,340
242,823
172,168
84,608
68,208
324,984
57,101
13,192
11,868
82,161
49.6%
18.5%
21.1%
33.8%
Source: ESRI
There will be approximately 391,252 senior households in the Dallas metro area by 2013, an
increase of 20.4% from 2008 (Table 74). Households over the age of 75 will experience the
slowest growth rate between 2008 and 2013 at 12.9%.
Table 74: Senior Household Forecast by Age Cohort,
2008 - 2013 Change
Cohort 2008
2013
Number Percent
55 - 64
65 - 74
75+
Total
172,168
84,608
68,208
324,984
210,591
103,642
77,019
391,252
38,423
19,034
8,811
66,268
22.3%
22.5%
12.9%
20.4%
Source: ESRI
11.1.2 Households by Income
CMA
Senior households earning more than $200,000 annually had the strongest growth between 2000
and 2008 at 141.4% (Table 75). In fact, all income cohorts earning more than $75,000 saw
significant growth during the period. Senior households earning less than $35,000 per year
decreased in all income cohorts.
July 2008
83
Table 75: Senior Household Trends by Income Cohort, CMA,
2000-2008
2000 - 2008 Change
Percent
Household Income
2000
2008 Number
<$15,000
2,205
1,668
-537
-24.4%
$15,000 - $24,999
2,254
1,712
-542
-24.0%
$25,000 - $34,999
2,526
1,812
-714
-28.3%
$35,000 - $49,999
3,675
3,739
64
1.7%
$50,000 - $74,999
4,508
6,150
1,642
36.4%
$75,000 - $99,999
2,661
5,001
2,340
87.9%
$100,000 - $149,999
3,097
5,753
2,656
85.8%
$150,000 - $199,999
1,419
2,415
996
70.2%
$200,000+
1,695
4,091
2,396
141.4%
Total
24,040
32,341
8,301
34.5%
Source: ESRI
Senior households in the higher income cohorts ($100,000+) will continue to see strong growth
in the next five years (Table 76). Households earning more than $200,000 will experience the
strongest growth at 63.3% and households earning between $25,000 and $34,999 will experience
the most significant decline of 27.8%.
Table 76: Senior Household Forecast by Income Cohort,
CMA, 2008-2013
2008 - 2013 Change
Number
Percent
Household Income
2008
2013
<$15,000
1,668
1,537
-131
-7.9%
$15,000 - $24,999
1,712
1,293
-419
-24.5%
$25,000 - $34,999
1,812
1,309
-503
-27.8%
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
3,739
6,150
5,001
5,753
2,415
4,091
32,341
3,184
7,367
5,621
8,602
3,391
6,679
38,983
-555
1,217
620
2,849
976
2,588
6,642
-14.8%
19.8%
12.4%
49.5%
40.4%
63.3%
20.5%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
84
Dallas Metro Area
Higher income senior households, particularly those earning more than $100,000 per year,
experienced significant growth since 2000, ranging from 118.1% for those earning between
$100,000 and $149,999 to 168.5% for those earning more than $200,000 per year (Table 77).
Households making less than $35,000 decreased during the period.
Table 77: Senior Household Trends by Income Cohort,
2000 - 2008 Change
Percent
Household Income
2000
2008 Number
<$15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
42,751
31,144
30,150
36,732
35,879
26,278
26,577
41,926
-6,872
-4,866
-3,573
5,194
-16.1%
-15.6%
-11.9%
14.1%
40,206
22,743
21,151
7,640
10,306
242,823
57,324
45,300
46,127
17,906
27,667
324,984
17,118
22,557
24,976
10,266
17,361
82,161
42.6%
99.2%
118.1%
134.4%
168.5%
33.8%
Source: ESRI
The strong growth experienced by higher income senior households between 2000 and 2008 will
continue through 2013 (Table 78). The number of senior households earning more than
$200,000 annually could increase by 21,100, or 76.3%. Senior households earning between
$15,000 and $24,999 could decrease by 16.0% in the five year period.
Table 78: Senior Household Forecast by Income Cohort,
2008 - 2013 Change
Number
Percent
Household Income
2008
2013
<$15,000
35,879
34,926
-953
-2.7%
$15,000 - $24,999
26,278
22,065
-4,213
-16.0%
$25,000 - $34,999
26,577
23,024
-3,553
-13.4%
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000+
Total
41,926
57,324
45,300
46,127
17,906
27,667
324,984
40,870
73,725
50,869
69,793
27,213
48,767
391,252
-1,056
16,401
5,569
23,666
9,307
21,100
66,268
-2.5%
28.6%
12.3%
51.3%
52.0%
76.3%
20.4%
Source: ESRI
July 2008
85
11.2 Comparable Communities
Four comparable market-rate senior apartment communities were selected for this project based
on age, location, and quality: Conservatory at Plano, Corinthians Retirement, Franklin Park, and
The Remington in Valley Ranch (Map 11). Atria Carrollton was researched, but it is primarily a
medical facility, not an independent living community. Evergreen at Plano was also visited, but
it is not market-rate.
The four communities were built between 1998 and 2008 and have a total of 691 units. Franklin
Park will open in August 2008 and has just begun leasing. The current vacancy rate is 58.3%,
but if Franklin Park is omitted, the vacancy rate drops to 39.7%. Conservatory at Plano opened
in March 2008 and according to the leasing agent, has experienced a slow lease-up period. Of
the total comparable unit inventory, 6% are efficiencies/studios, 48% are one-bedroom, 43% are
two-bedrooms, and 3% are three-bedrooms. Franklin Park is the only community offering threebedroom units.
Table 79: Comparable Market-Rate Senior Apartment Communities, June 2008
Map
Key Community
1 Conservatory at Plano
2 Corinthians Retirement
3 Franklin Park
4 The Remington
Total
% of Total
Owner/
Developer
Conservatory Senior Living
Corinthians
United Senior Living
Twelve Oaks
Address
6401 Ohio Drive
3500 Old Denton Rd.
2561 SW Grapevine Pkwy
8707 Valley Ranch Pkwy.
Year
Unit Mix
Total Vac. Vac.
Built Eff. 1BR 2BR 3BR Units Units Rate
2008
0
111 111
0 222 140 63.1%
1998
40
73
15
0 128
44 34.4%
2008
0
54 139
20 213 213 100.0%
2000
4
94
30
0 128
6
4.7%
44
332 295
20 691 403 58.3%
6% 48% 43% 3%
11.2.1 Community Rent Ranges
As shown in Table 80, monthly rents at the comparable communities range from $1,825 for the
smallest efficiency at Corinthians Retirement to $4,545 for a two-bedroom at Corinthians. Onebedrooms range from $2,295 at Conservatory at Plano to $3,285 at Corinthians.
Table 80: Comparable Senior Apartment Community Rent Ranges, June 2008
Community
Conservatory at Plano
Corinthians Retirement
Franklin Park
The Remington
Studio/
Effic.
N/A N/A
$1,825 - $1,875
N/A N/A
$1,900 $1,900
1BR
$2,295 - $3,195
$2,385 - $2,435
$2,695 - $3,285
$2,765 - $2,765
2BR
3BR
$3,595 - $4,195
N/A N/A
$3,115 - $4,545
N/A N/A
$3,425 - $4,055 $4,310 - $4,310
$3,100
$3,100
N/A N/A
July 2008
86
Map 11: Comparable Market-Rate Age-Restricted Apartment Communities, 2000
July 2008
87
11.2.2 Size Ranges
The comparable communities’ units range in size from the smallest 375-square-foot efficiency at
Corinthians to a 1,784-square-foot two-bedroom at Franklin Park. Overall, Corinthians has the
smallest unit sizes.
Table 81: Comparable Senior Apartment Community Size Ranges, June 2008
Community
Franklin Park
The Remington
Studio/
Effic.
1BR
N/A - N/A
561 862
375 - 428 470 470
N/A - N/A 785 - 1,016
600 - 600 840 840
973
650
1,180
1,040
2BR
- 1,086
- 1,000
- 1,784
- 1,040
3 Bdrm
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
1,664 - 1,664
N/A
N/A -
11.2.3 Rents Per Square Foot
Rents per square foot tend to be higher for studio and efficiency apartments, and lower for the
larger two- and three-bedroom units. For example, Corinthians, which has the smallest unit
sizes, also has the highest rents per square foot. One-bedroom units at Corinthians reach $5.18
per square foot. Franklin Park has one-bedroom units for $3.23 per square foot.
Table 82: Comparable Senior Apartment Community Rents Per
Square Foot Ranges, June 2008
Studio/
Community
Effic.
N/A N/A
Corinthians Retirement $4.38 - $4.87
Franklin Park
N/A N/A
The Remington
$3.17 $3.17
1BR
$3.71 - $4.09
$5.07 - $5.18
$3.23 - $3.43
$3.29 $3.29
2BR
3BR
$3.69 - $3.86 N/A - N/A
$4.55 - $4.79 N/A - N/A
$2.27 - $2.90 $2.59 - $2.59
$2.98 $2.98 N/A - N/A
11.2.4 Amenities Included in Rent
Rents at senior communities also reflect the amenities included in the monthly rent. As shown in
Table 83, all communities provide utilities, cable, housekeeping, planned activities, and some
level of transportation. Corinthians is the only community to provide three meals a day. The
other communities provide one.
Table 83: Comparable Senior Apartment Community Amenities Included in Rent, June 2008
Community
Franklin Park
The Remington
Utilities Phone
X
X
X
X
Cable
X
X
X
X
Housekeeping
X
X
X
X
Planned Barber/
Fitness
Activities Beauty Svcs Center
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Transport
X
X
X
X
Meals
1 2 3
X
X
X
X
July 2008
88
11.3 Senior Apartment Development Activity
11.3.1 Under Construction
Amarantha is a senior apartment community under construction in the southeast quadrant of
Highway 121 and Old Denton Road in Lewisville. A total of 151 market-rate units will be
delivered by fall 2008.
11.3.2 Proposed
Local developer Chan Pak is planning to start construction in August on the Villas at Raiford, a
180-unit senior apartment community on the south side of Raiford Road across from the site.
The mix will include 50% tax-credit and 50% market rate units. Two meals per day will be
included in the rent, which will start at $800 per month for a one-bedroom unit. The mix will
also include some two-bedrooms.
11.4 Rental Site Recommendations and Forecasts
Given the excessive overall vacancy rate at the existing market-rate senior apartment
communities in the Carrollton/Addison market area, and the two communities either under
construction or soon to be started in the Old Denton Road corridor, there is currently limited
opportunity for new product on the Raiford Road site. The most appropriate location for senior
product would be on a portion of the 21-acre parcel recommended for townhouses.
While demographic forecasts indicate an increase of 6,642 households over age 55 in the CMA
over the next five years, it is important to note that a majority will be aging in place. Most of
these households do not generate demand for new housing, as they prefer to stay in their existing
residence. Broken down by age, 52% of the forecasted 2008-2013 growth will be under age 64,
representing active seniors that gravitate to for-sale product. By income, 97% of the new senior
households will earn over $100,000 per year. Again, these households will generally prefer to
purchase a residence. Combined with the difficult market conditions at the comparable
communities, these demographic indicators would discourage construction of age-restricted
market-rate apartments on the Raiford Road site.
July 2008
89
12. Senior For-Sale Housing
Five comparable for-sale active adult communities were chosen based on proximity to the
Raiford Road site, as well as age and quality of product (Map 12). The comparables will
contain a total of 4,088 units (Table 84), of which 1,468 units, or 35.9%, are completed.
Table 84: Comparable For-Sale Active Adult Communities, June, 2008
Map
Year Total Comp. Proposed
Percent
Units
Units Complete
Key Community
Open Units
1 Village at Prestonwood
2004
144
144
0
100.0%
2 Del Webb's Frisco Lakes
2006 2,400
605
1,795
25.2%
3 Greens of Oakmont
2005
99
96
3
97.0%
4 Watermere at Southlake
2007
245
25
220
10.2%
5 Robson Ranch
2000 1,200
598
602
49.8%
Total
4,088
1,468
2,620
35.9%
Source: Warren & Associates.
12.1.1 Village at Prestonwood
Located in the northwest quadrant of Plano Parkway
and Marsh Lane three miles west of the Dallas North
Tollway, Village at Prestonwood is the closest
comparable to the Raiford Road site and the only
active-adult community in Plano.
When built-out, the community will contain 144 units.
The final 11 units are currently under construction, and
another eight units are ready for immediate occupancy.
Prices range from $219,500 for a 1,570-square-foot
two-bedroom, two-bath unit to $237,500 for a 1,710square-foot three-bedroom, two-bath unit. Both unit types include a sunroom and two-car
garage. Village at Prestonwood is one of only two comparables that offers on-site assisted
living. It is the second-most expensive community and has the second-highest monthly fees.
The community is constructed in a “pinwheel” design of four units per building, with minimal
landscaping. The community is gated, with card-controlled access. It has no golf privileges.
July 2008
90
Map 12: Comparable For-Sale Age-Restricted Communities, 2008
July 2008
91
12.1.2 Del Webb’s Frisco Lakes
Del Webb’s Frisco Lakes is located in the southwest
quadrant of FM-420 and Stonebrook Parkway in Frisco,
approximately 13 miles northeast of the Raiford Road
site. Traffic on FM-420 is congested and slow-moving.
Of the 2,400 planned units, 605 are completed. It is the
least expensive housing option of the comparables and
has the lowest home owner dues, which includes golf
privileges.
The community is attractively landscaped and wellmaintained, although the architecture is nondescript. There
are nine floor plans; all are “snout houses” with protruding
garages facing the street. The community offers expansive
Lake Lewisville frontage with a marina, and a large 38,000square-foot community center with restaurant. The
community is 35 miles from downtown Dallas.
Unit prices range from $159,000 for 1,301 square feet, to
$376,000 for 2,681 square feet, with a $56,000 premium for
lakefront lots, and a $27,000 premium for golf-front lots.
12.1.3 Greens of Oakmont
Greens of Oakmont is located one mile west of I-35E,
in the northwest quadrant of Post Oak and Robinson
roads, 16 miles northwest of the Raiford Road site.
This Pulte Homes community is contained within two
municipal jurisdictions: Denton and Corinth.
Although 40 miles from Dallas and 37 miles from Fort
Worth, Denton offers an amenity-rich location with
two large public universities and an historic
downtown. The community is easily accessible from
both I-35E and I-35W.
Of the four available floor plans, two are also available at Del Webb’s Frisco Lakes, which is
another Pulte community. The 99 units are contained within the existing Oakmont single-family
subdivision, and share all rights and privileges of the Oakmont Country Club, including pool,
tennis, and a restaurant. The relatively low homeowner fee of $120 per month does not include
golf privileges.
The community is attractive and well-maintained, with nine homes available for immediate
occupancy, and an additional three lots remaining for sale. One of the remaining lots is on the
golf course and is listed for a $40,000 premium. The moderately priced homes range from
$161,990 for a 1,397-square-foot three-bedroom, two-bath unit to $219,000 for a 2,026-squareJuly 2008
92
C
foot threee bedroom, two-bath
t
uniit with golf course
c
frontaage. All uniits feature froont-loaded tw
wocar garagges.
12.1.4 Watermere
W
at Southlake
Waterrmere at Souuthlake is 166 miles west of the Raifoord
Road site, on the south side of
o Southlake Boulevard at
a
Daviss Boulevard.. Ingress andd egress are difficult since
there is no traffic light at the intersection.
i
. Of the 2200
a 155 are
units,, 65 are stackked-flat conddominiums and
townhhouses. All buildings feeature post-teension concrrete
and stteel construcction.
The most
m architeccturally uniqque of the fivve comparabbles,
Waterrmere is built to suggestt an English village. Thee two
five-sstory condom
minium builddings are undder construcction,
and the toownhouses are
a in 16 buiildings. Thee local buildeer is amenabble to floor-pplan changess.
The unitss have 12- to
o 14-foot ceiilings. Standdard interior finishes incclude granite countertopss, GE
Profile apppliances, haardwood floors, and custtom cabinetss. A raised dishwasher
d
a loweredd,
and
built-in microwave
m
reeduce mobillity injuries.
ost expensivee of the five comparables. Prices rannge from $2445,000 for a
Watermeere is the mo
1,005-squuare-foot on
ne-bedroom, one-bath coondo, to $6244,000 for a 3,016-square
3
e-foot twobedroom
m, three-and-aa-half-bath townhouse.
t
Although Watermere
W
also has the most
m expensivve
monthly fees, it is thee only compparable that includes
i
a fuull meal plann for residentts. Also inclluded
in the feees are maid service,
s
wateer and cable,, and golf privileges at a nearby counntry club. Itt is
only one of two of th
he comparables to providde on-site assisted livingg. The comm
munity also
contains a 30,000-squ
uare-foot cluubhouse andd three on-sitte restaurants.
12.1.5 Robson
R
Ranc
ch
Robsonn Ranch is thhe furthest comparable from
f
the Raiford
Road site.
s
It is loccated one mille west of I-35W on Robbson
Ranch Road (Exit 79),
7 26 milees northwest of the site.
The 1,2200-unit com
mmunity is nearly
n
50% complete;
c
6002
units reemain unbuiilt. The com
mmunity has 19 different
floor plans. Pricess range from $212,000 foor a 1,430square--foot two-beedroom unit to $355,900 for a 3,408-square--foot five-beedroom unit,, which incluudes a standaard
home site
s with landdscaping. Prremiums forr golf coursee lots
range from
f
$45,0000 to $200,0000.
wner fees are $156 per month
m
and incclude 24-houur gated secuurity and pattrols, home
Homeow
security systems,
s
and
d access to all communitty amenities except golf,, which is ann additional $75
$
per montth. The com
mmunity has an on-site reestaurant, and separate cllubhouse, fittness center,, and
arts centeer.
July 2008
8
93
Homes are attractively maintained, but all designs have two-car garages facing the street.
Robson offers prospective buyers a weekend in the community for $50. The weekend includes
overnight accommodations, tour, golf course and recreation facility privileges, and dinner at the
on-site restaurant with a Robson Ranch resident.
12.1.6 Comparable Pricing
As shown in Table 85, the comparable community pricing ranges from $159,000 at Frisco Lakes
to $624,000 at Watermere at Southlake. Prices per square foot range from a low of $104 at
Robson Ranch to $244 per square foot at Watermere at Southlake.
Table 85: Pricing at Comparable For-Sale Communities, Carrollton Site, June 2008
Price
Square Foot Price/Sq. Ft. Monthly
Fees
Range
Range
Range
Community
Village at Prestonwood
$219,000 - $237,000 1,570 - 1,710 $139 - $139
$175
Del Webb's Frisco Lakes
$159,000 - $376,000 1,301 - 2,681 $122 - $140
$100
Greens of Oakmont
$169,000 - $219,000 1,397 - 2,026 $108 - $121
$120
Watermere at Southlake
$245,000 - $624,000 1,005 - 3,016 $207 - $244 $1,800*
Robson Ranch
$212,000 - $355,000 1,430 - 3,408 $104 - $148
$156
* full meal plan included in dues; $250 per month per additional adult
Monthly fees (without meals) range from a low of $100 per month at Frisco Lakes to $175 per
month at Village at Prestonwood. Watermere at Southlake is the only comparable which
provides meal service as part of the fees, so it is considerably higher at $1,800 per month.
12.1.7 Comparable For-Sale Community Features and Services
Table 86 indicates the features and services available at the comparable for-sale communities.
Watermere at Southlake provides the most services, including maid service. Watermere and
Village at Prestonwood are the only two offering on-site assisted living. All comparables offer
attached garage parking. Three of the five offer on-site restaurants and gated access. Only
Robson Ranch offers a security patrol. Greens at Oakmont provides the fewest services.
Table 86: Comparable For-Sale Community Features and Services, June 2008
Community
Greens of Oakmont
Robson Ranch
Garage
Parking
X
X
X
X
X
On-site
Assisted
Living
X
Security
Patrol
On-site
Maid
Restaurants Service
Gated
Access
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Total
3
2
1
5
4
July 2008
94
12.1.8 Comparable For-Sale Community Recreational Amenities, June 2008
The comparable for-sale communities offer a variety of recreational amenities (Table 87). All
five of the communities provide a swimming pool and an exercise room. Village at Prestonwood
offers the fewest recreational options. It is the only community without tennis courts, and like
Watermere at Southlake, it has no golf course.
Table 87: Comparable Recreational Amenities, June 2008
Golf
Swimming
Tennis
Exercise
Course
Pool
Court
Room
Community
X
X
X
X
X
X
Greens of Oakmont
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Robson Ranch
X
X
X
X
Total
2
4
4
3
4
12.2 For-Sale Senior Site Recommendations and Forecasts
The 21-acre portion of the site along Old Denton Road north of the Furneaux Creek greenway
could be designated for a for-sale senior product similar to the Village at Prestonwood. This
type of design with four single-level units per building could be constructed at a density of
approximately six to 6.5 units per gross acre. This would generally support 125 to 135 units. If
the small lake on the site is not filled in, a total of 85 to 90 units could be accommodated on 14
acres.
If the lake on the 21-acre parcel is filled in, the for-sale senior product could be developed
adjacent to a non-age-restricted townhouse community. An achievable mix would be
approximately 85-90 senior units on 14 acres and 55-65 townhouses on seven acres. These two
projects would be sized consistently with the comparables identified in this report. Dividing the
parcel into two products would maximize absorption potential and potentially generate higher
land values.
For-Sale senior units would be very similar to Village at Prestonwood, ranging from
approximately 1,600 to 1,800 square feet with two-car garages. Pricing would range from
$200,000 to $220,000, or $125 per square foot. This would be a 10% discount from
Prestonwood, which averages $139 per square foot with a location adjacent to Prestonwood
Country Club in Plano.
A small clubhouse and pool should be constructed for the senior community, but no other on-site
amenities or services would be justified by the unit count or pricing. As a result, the amenity
package would be similar to, or perhaps inferior to, a non-age-restricted townhouse community.
With townhouses estimated to average $112 per square foot (2008 dollars), the $13 per square
foot average price premium for senior housing is based on higher quality construction and
interior finishes. Given the absorption pace at Village at Prestonwood, the site could expect to
sell approximately 3.0 to 3.5 for-sale senior units per month.
July 2008
95
13. Hotel Market Analysis
Hunden Strategic Partners (HSP) completed this section of the report on the hotel market. It
provides an overview of hotel market trends and conditions, and specific site recommendations.
13.1
General Market Area
Local market area characteristics influence the demand potential for hotels. This section profiles
Carrollton and the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (metropolitan area), and characteristics of the
area that affect the hotel industry. It also provides a brief overview of the economic
characteristics of the market.
13.1.1 Overview
The City of Carrollton, TX is part of Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA), located just north of Dallas. The Dallas MSA includes 12 counties, and Carrollton is
part of three of those counties: Collin, Dallas and Denton. The Dallas MSA ranks eighth in U.S.
population with approximately 6.6 million residents.
13.1.2 Brief History
Settlers came to the area that would become Carrollton in the 1840s. Trinity Mills was the first
community in the area, and by 1878 Trinity Mills became a cattle-shipping center with the
building of the Dallas Wichita Railroad. Settlers were drawn to Carrollton because of the rich
soil for farming, while the growth of Carrollton resulted from the St. Louis Southwestern
Railway, built through Carrollton in 1888, creating a natural shipping center for livestock,
cotton, and grain. Carrollton was officially incorporated in 1913, and the gravel industry assisted
in its continued success through the first decades of the 20th century. In the past few decades the
population of the city has exploded, as Carrollton became a popular residential location for
people working in the Dallas area.
Dallas, the ninth largest city in the United States, was first settled in the early 1840s and was
incorporated in 1856. Long before Dallas was a city, the area was heavily used as a trading post
between the Spanish and the Native Americans. Dallas continued to grow, doubling in
population every year until the early 1900s. By 1911, Dallas had one of twelve Federal Reserve
Banks, cementing itself a financial center. Today, the Dallas area’s economy is primarily based
on the petroleum industry, telecommunications, and transportation.
13.1.3 Regional Access
Because of Carrollton’s location on the northern edge of Dallas, it is easily accessible via car
from Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and Oklahoma City. It is also relatively easy to access
Carrollton from the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, just west of Carrollton. The city is
within 600 miles of 40 million people.
July 2008
96
Figure 5: Carrollton Area
The main highway through the Carrollton-Dallas area is I-35E, which continues north to Canada
and south to Mexico. Other interstates in the Dallas/Fort Worth area include the north-south
interstates I-356E, I-35W, and I-45, the east-west interstates I-20 and I-30. The President
George Bush Turnpike bisects Carrollton and provides an additional east-west thoroughfare
through north Dallas. The proposed hotel site is located on the north side of the President George
Bush Turnpike in the center of Carrollton.
13.1.4 Airport Access
Three airports serve Carrollton. Addison Airport is the closest airport. Located adjacent to
Carrollton in the Town of Addison, Addison Airport is the nation’s third largest general aviation
airport, with no commercial scheduled flights.
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) is less than ten miles west of Carrollton. DFW is
the third busiest airport in the U.S. and has 2,300 flights daily to more than 170 destinations
worldwide. There are 21 airlines that serve DFW, with American Airlines using DFW as a major
hub. The airport had nearly 60 million passengers in 2007. Currently DFW is undergoing a $45
million renovation of terminals A, B, C, and E that is expected to be completed in 2009.
July 2008
97
Dallas Love Field is located five miles northwest of the center of Dallas and 15 miles south of
Carrollton. Opened in 1917 as a military base and opened to civilian use in 1927, Love Field
was the major airport serving the Dallas area until DFW opened in 1974. Southwest Airlines has
continued to use Love Field as a base of operations and has made Love Field a viable airport for
travelers to and from the Dallas area.
13.1.5 Population
A strong population base is important to the success of a full-service hotel because a share of its
users will be local businesses and people visiting residents. Table 88 shows the population
characteristics of the region, state, MSA, Counties and City.
Table 88: Population Trends, 1990-2007
Percent
Change
2000
2007
2000-2007
281,421,906 299,389,484
6.0%
20,851,820 23,904,380
12.8%
5,197,130
5,982,787
13.1%
491,675
730,690
32.7%
2,218,899
2,366,511
6.2%
432,976
612,357
29.3%
1,188,580
1,232,940
3.6%
109,576
121,604
9.9%
2.1%
2.0%
Population
Area
United States
Texas
Dallas-Ft. Worth MSA
Collin County, TX
Dallas County, TX
Denton County, TX
City of Dallas
City of Carrollton
City at a Percentage of MSA
1990
248,709,873
16,986,510
4,014,341
264,036
1,852,810
273,525
1,006,877
82,169
2.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Texas has seen a large increase in residents from 1990 to 2007, more than the moderate
population growth of the country as a whole. The Dallas-Fort Worth MSA population increased
13.1% in the past seven years, which can likely be attributed to the relatively strong economic
conditions in Texas. Two of the three counties that contain parts of Carrollton increased by
approximately 30%, far outpacing the rest of the MSA. Dallas’ population increased by 3.6
percent from 2000 through 2007, while the City of Carrollton increased by nearly ten percent.
The city has increased its population from 82,000 in 1990 to nearly 122,000 in 2007.
13.1.6 Diversified Economy
A healthy and diversified economy provides not only employment and disposable income for a
market’s residents, but also helps to insulate an area from economic downturns. Markets that
have historically relied on one sector, such as manufacturing, have often had difficulty
recovering from market shifts to other sectors, which lead to an overall loss of local income and
employment. This situation can lead to declining population, as residents move to other areas
with better opportunities. This is not the case for the Dallas region. It has a very balanced
economy and one that has grown continuously for many years. Carrollton has been part of the
employment success of the Dallas region. Carrollton also benefits from being North Dallas’ only
Foreign Trade Zone.
July 2008
98
The figure below shows how Dallas MSA and State of Texas employment totals are diversified.
Graph 29: Employment by Category, Dallas-Ft. Worth MSA and Texas
100%
Government
90%
Other Services
80%
Leisure and Hospitality
70%
Educational and Health Services
60%
Prof essional and Business Services
Financial Activities
50%
Inf ormation
40%
Transportation and Utilities
30%
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
20%
Manuf acturing
10%
Natural Resources, Mining & Construction
0%
State of Texas
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Dallas MSA employment has several major components: Government, Professional and
Business Services, Financial Activities, and Retail Trade. The MSA is relatively consistent with
Texas in terms of type and diversity of employment.
13.1.7 Income and Employment
The depth and strength of a market’s employment base and income levels is a strong indicator of
its potential ability to support a full-service hotel. In general, higher income levels indicate a
high quality base of employers, which create demand for meeting space and hotel room nights
via corporate-transient and group visitors. Markets with more wealth also tend to be attractive
regionally and nationally for tourism such as conventions and trade shows. Quality facilities are
directly tied to the capacity of the public sector to provide amenities to support quality of life
locally and economic growth regionally. Less wealthy markets will have less disposable income
available to spend on special events, for example, and would generally be expected to provide a
lower level of attendee demand for such a facility. Indicators of a market’s overall wealth and
growth can include trends in its income and employment.
July 2008
99
Table 89 summarizes the historical growth in income and employment in the Dallas-Forth Worth
MSA from 1998 through 2006, based on the latest data provided by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis.
Table 89: Dallas-Fort Worth MSA Income and Employment, 1998-2006
Non-Farm Income
Non-Farm Employment
Year
$ (000s)
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
$147,545,095
$157,966,123
$176,473,058
$183,421,193
$185,776,626
$190,494,099
$203,556,107
$221,139,256
$238,822,552
% Change Employed
-7.1%
11.7%
3.9%
1.3%
2.5%
6.9%
8.6%
8.0%
3,206,197
3,322,405
3,447,866
3,469,393
3,434,778
3,436,887
3,502,532
3,606,686
3,750,610
Income/
%
% Change Employed Change
-3.5%
3.6%
0.6%
-1.0%
0.1%
1.9%
2.9%
3.8%
$46,019
$47,546
$51,183
$52,868
$54,087
$55,426
$58,117
$61,314
$63,676
-3.3%
7.7%
3.3%
2.3%
2.5%
4.9%
5.5%
3.9%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, HSP
While the rate of growth has varied, income has increased each year since 1998. Non-farm
employment increased at a slower rate from 2001 through 2003, with a decrease in 2002. The
last two years of reporting have shown an increase in all three measures.
Employment in the city of Carrollton has grown over the last few years. The 2008 forecast of the
total number of employees within the Carrollton city limits is 56,680.
13.1.8 Unemployment
The figure below shows the unemployment rate in Dallas in comparison to the national rate for
1990 to 2007. The unemployment rate remained consistent with and somewhat below the United
States as a whole from 1990 to 2001. From 2002 through the present, the unemployment rate has
either been above the national average or consistent with it. Much of the negative relative shift
was due to the telecom industry meltdown in 2001 and 2002.
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100
Graph 30: Unemployment Rates, Dallas-Fort Worth MSA and US, 1990-2007
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
U.S.
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-96
Jan-95
Jan-94
Jan-93
Jan-92
Jan-91
Jan-90
1.5
13.1.9 Income
Residents’ effective buying income also helps to demonstrate the amount of disposable income
that is available locally, and this data is shown in Table 90.
Table 90: Effective Buying Income, 2007
Total EBI (000)
Median Household
EBI
Carrollton, TX
Dallas MSA
State of Texas
United States
$2,864,593
$127,109,118
$416,199,154
$5,692,909,567
$56,919
$45,468
$38,804
$39,324
7.2%
14.1%
19.4%
59.3%
16.2%
20.3%
19.0%
44.5%
22.6%
22.4%
18.6%
36.4%
21.5%
22.5%
19.3%
36.7%
EBI Group
Under $20,000
$20,000-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
$50,000+
Source: Sales and Marketing Management
As the table shows, the Dallas-Fort Worth MSA had a total effective buying income (EBI) of
$127.1 billion and a median household EBI of $45,468 in 2005. This is higher than the state as a
whole, as well as the U.S. average. The City of Carrollton has a significantly higher median
household EBI with $56,919 and more than half of its population has a median household EBI of
more than $50,000. This amount of disposable income is positive for restaurants, retail and
functions held at hotels.
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101
13.1.10 Corporate Presence
In general, a market’s corporations will provide demand for hotels via individual corporate
transient travel, group training, new product launches, meetings, banquets, and other events.
Table 91 shows the largest employers in Carrollton, by number of full-time employees.
Table 91: Largest Employers, Carrollton, 2007
Company
Carrollton/Farmers Branch Indep. School District
ST Microelectronics Semiconductors
Halliburton Energy Services
McKesson Corp.
Hilton Reservations Worldwide
City of Carrollton Municipal Government
Trinity Medical Center
Real Page
ACCOR North America
RIA Computer Software
Western Extrusions Corp.
Industry
Education
Manufacturing
Utilities
Health Care
Hospitality
Government
Health Care
Technology
Real Estate
Technology
Manufacturing
# of
Employees
3,400
1,225
1,200
980
900
830
750
700
600
600
501
Source: City of Carrollton
The Carrollton/Farmers Branch Independent School District is the largest employer in Carrollton
with approximately 3,400 employees. The major employers are varied and represent a balanced
family of companies. Carrollton does not appear to be overexposed in any one industry. In
addition to the large employers in Carrollton, there are many smaller firms, which also generate
demand for hotel rooms.
13.1.11 Higher Education
The presence of colleges, universities, and educational institutions can serve not only as a
demand base for hotels, but also a source of event demand for hotel function space. Carrollton
does not have any colleges or universities, but does have several schools nearby.
The largest school in the area is Collin County Community College in Plano, with 13,000
students. Other large academic institutions in the area include the University of Texas at Dallas,
in Richardson, Texas, with 10,945 students; Southern Methodist University in Dallas, with
10,064 students; and Richland College in Dallas with 12,537 students. Thirty-two percent of
Carrollton’s population holds a Bachelor’s degree or higher.
13.1.12 Carrollton Area Meeting Facilities
Carrollton lacks meeting facilities within its borders, which hampers its ability to generate room
nights. Likewise, the lack of hotels hampers the city’s ability to support meeting facilities. The
greater Carrollton area has 12 meeting facilities ranging from 49,000 square feet to 1,400 square
feet of meeting space. Of these, the Hilton DFW Lakes Executive Conference Center is the
largest, with approximately 49,400 square feet of function space.
The table below displays the meeting facilities in the area.
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102
Table 92: Meeting Facilities, Carrollton Area
Facility
Hilton DFW Lakes Executive Conference Center
Embassy Suites Dallas Frisco Convention Center & Spa
Plano Centre
Marriott Dallas/Plano at Legacy Town Center
Crowne Plaza Dallas Near the Galleria
The Westin Stonebriar Resort
Southfork Hotel
Hilton Garden Inn Dallas Lewisville
Holiday Inn Express Plano East
Holiday Inn Dallas North-Addison
Summerfield Suites
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites North Dallas/Addison
Total
Average
Location
Grapevine
Frisco
Plano
Plano
Addison
The Colony
Plano
Lewisville
Plano
Addison
Addison
Addison
Total
Guest
Rooms
393
330
-404
429
301
280
171
137
101
132
102
253
Exhibit
Space SF
14,400
-21,600
---------36,000
18,000
Total
Ballroom Meeting Space Function
Space SF*
SF
SF
9,380
25,636
49,416
41,760
4,599
46,359
9,609
2,878
34,087
13,858
10,943
24,801
7,680
13,340
21,020
9,169
10,799
19,968
7,016
8,023
15,039
12,084
2,316
14,400
5,250
5,250
10,500
1,800
852
2,652
1,012
828
1,840
1,400
-1,400
120,018
85,464
241,482
10,002
7,769
20,124
*Does Not include foyers or pre-function space
Source: Respective Facilities, Mpoint.com
The Embassy Suites Dallas Convention Center in Frisco has the largest meeting space of the
hotels in the area with 46,359 square feet. The meeting facilities in the table above averaged
approximately 20,100 square feet with and average hotel room size of 253.
13.1.13 Carrollton as a Destination
Carrollton is part of a metropolitan market with numerous leisure attractions and group visitor
generators. The northern Dallas area is experiencing a high level of development and
redevelopment activity related to downtown assets, attractions, and other tourism and hospitality
related assets. Some of the attractions are listed in the table below.
Table 93: Carrollton Area Attractions
Attraction
Homestead Museum
Carrollton Wind Symphony
ArtCentre of Plano
Heard Natural Science Museum & Wildlife Sanctuary
Southfork Ranch
Cavanaugh Flight Museum
City
Carrollton
Carrollton
Plano
Plano
Parker
Addison
Source: Respective Cities
Homestead Museum: The A.W. Perry Homestead Museum illustrates life in north-central
Texas at the turn of the 20th Century. A.W. and Sarah (Huffman) Perry were pioneer
homesteaders of Peters Colony who came to Carrollton in the year 1844 from Carrollton, Illinois.
In 1909, their son Dewitt Perry and his wife tore down the first house and used some of the
lumber to build the present-day residence. This structure is now the museum, restored in 1976
for the bicentennial.
ArtCentre of Plano: This renovated historic downtown building offers plays, and vocal and
other musical performances in the ArtCentre Theatre. The facility also has art galleries
displaying works of local artists as well as national shows.
Heard Natural Science Museum & Wildlife Sanctuary: The Heard Natural Science
Museum and Wildlife Sanctuary is a 289-acre outdoor preserve and nature museum. Exhibits
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103
include species of birds, insects, and animals that have found refuge within the rapidly
developing Collin County area. The museum features The Living Lab, an interactive hands-on
science laboratory; the Venomous Snakes of Texas exhibit; and rotating nature art exhibits.
Southfork Ranch: Known as the "world's most famous ranch," Southfork Ranch attracts
millions of visitors ever year since it became the homestead of the fictional Ewing clan of the
television show “Dallas.” Visitors experience television history at the ranch.
Cavanaugh Flight Museum: Texas’ newest aviation museum in Addison, located at the
Addison Airport, features 50,000 square feet of space that house aircraft used by the military
from World War I, World War II, as well as more recent craft, all restored to their original
condition.
Carrollton Wind Symphony: Formed in 1995, the ensemble has grown to over 50 members
and hosts performances throughout the year. The group also hosts clinics for area residents and
also performs at community events in Carrollton.
13.1.14 Office Market
The Carrollton office market has a total of 2.5 million square feet of office space. The following
table displays the office market characteristics from 2005 to 2008.
Table 94: Office Market, Carrollton, 2005-2008
# of
Quarter Buildings
2005 3Q
87
2005 4Q
87
2006 1Q
90
2006 2Q
90
2006 3Q
93
2006 4Q
94
2007 1Q
95
2007 2Q
95
2007 3Q
96
2007 4Q
97
2008 1Q
97
2008 2Q
98
Total SF
2,414,333
2,414,333
2,431,328
2,431,328
2,466,013
2,473,023
2,476,027
2,476,027
2,485,527
2,490,677
2,490,677
2,494,484
Total Occ.
SF
2,002,377
2,014,157
1,961,693
2,029,709
2,028,077
2,051,852
2,016,994
2,027,335
2,070,797
2,026,289
2,061,580
2,098,887
Vacancy Average
Rate
Rate/SF
17.1%
$15.17
16.6%
$15.48
19.3%
$15.38
16.5%
$16.67
17.8%
$16.94
17.0%
$16.31
18.5%
$18.00
18.1%
$18.45
16.7%
$18.88
18.6%
$19.14
17.2%
$18.57
15.9%
$18.84
Source: Staubach
The Carrollton office market in the second quarter of 2008 had a total of 98 buildings with a
vacancy rate of 15.9 percent with an average lease rate of $18.84 per square foot. The vacancy
rate is currently at the lowest level in the past three years, with average leasing rate per square
foot decreasing the past four months.
13.1.15 Market Area Conclusion
The Carrollton market has seen expansion of both local and area population and employment.
The median effective buying income of the city of Carrollton is much higher than the Dallas-Fort
Worth MSA and of Texas as a whole. The growth of Carrollton as a Dallas “bedroom
community” has created a relatively affluent populace and a large labor force for the city.
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104
However, Carrollton is overshadowed by the larger, urban center of Dallas as well as the
commercial surrounding areas of Addison and others. Lack of investment in hotels and
restaurants, as well as little office building critical mass, has resulted in the development of these
assets in Addison and surrounding areas. As a result, Carrollton has little hotel development and
a limited commercial core to support a critical mass of hotel product. However, the sheer size of
the city and surrounding area population, combined with the existing local office presence
suggests that hotels could be supported here if well-located and of the appropriate brands.
13.2
Hotel Market Supply and Demand Analysis
This section presents an overview of the nation’s broader hotel market and then analyzes the
Carrollton hotel market in greater detail, including supply and demand growth as well as the
changing quality level of hotel supply.
13.2.1 U.S. Lodging Industry
With the growth of the travel industry, the U.S. lodging industry has also experienced strong
expansion. Table 95 shows selected characteristics of the U.S. lodging industry from 1992
through 2007.
Table 95: National Lodging Industry Annual Summary
Year
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Compound
Annual Growth
Occupancy
61.9%
63.1%
64.7%
65.1%
65.0%
64.5%
63.8%
63.1%
63.5%
59.8%
59.0%
59.2%
61.3%
63.1%
64.2%
64.1%
Change
-1.9%
2.5%
0.6%
-0.2%
-0.8%
-1.1%
-1.1%
0.6%
-5.8%
-1.3%
0.3%
3.5%
2.9%
1.7%
-0.2%
0.2%
Average
Daily
Rate
Change
$59.62
-$61.30
2.8%
$64.24
4.8%
$67.17
4.6%
$70.81
5.4%
$75.31
6.4%
$78.15
3.8%
$81.29
4.0%
$85.24
4.9%
$84.45
-0.9%
$83.20
-1.5%
$83.28
0.1%
$86.70
4.1%
$91.29
5.3%
$96.77
6.0%
$102.38
5.8%
3.7%
Revenue
per
Available
Room
$36.90
$38.68
$41.56
$43.73
$46.03
$48.57
$49.86
$51.29
$54.13
$50.50
$49.09
$49.30
$53.15
$57.61
$62.13
$65.63
Change
-4.8%
7.5%
5.2%
5.3%
5.5%
2.6%
2.9%
5.5%
-6.7%
-2.8%
0.4%
7.8%
8.4%
7.8%
5.6%
3.9%
Source: Smith Travel Research, HSP
Occupancy peaked at 65.1% in 1995 and recently was as high as 64.2 percent in 2006. After 9/11
and the recession, occupancy decreased to 59.%, before increasing to the 64% range. The
Hunden Strategic Partners (HSP) outlook for 2008 is a decrease in occupancy by up to 1.5
percentage points. Average daily rate (ADR) has increased at an average annual rate of 3.7
percent during the period, outpacing inflation (when food and energy are not counted). The last
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105
four years have exhibited strong ADR growth from four to six percent. Rate growth is expected
to be low in 2008, according to HSP projections. Revenue per available room (RevPar) increased
at record levels in 2004, 2005 and 2006 and was strong in 2007. RevPAR is expected to be flat
or negative in 2008 based on overall economic conditions (as it is the product of occupancy and
rate).
The figure below shows the above data graphically for the annual change.
Graph 31: National Hotel Industry Performance Annual Change
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
1993
Source: STR
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Occupancy
1999
2000
Average Daily Rate
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Revenue per Available Room
As shown, even when occupancy declines, average daily rates can increase. There appears to be
a breakpoint at 60% national occupancy, above which pricing power exists and below which
ADR declines.
13.2.2 Carrollton Hotel Lodging Market
The focus of this study is the potential for a hotel in Carrollton, and HSP has reviewed the
existing hotel market in greater Carrollton. However, without any quality hotels immediately
surrounding the proposed site, the analysis focuses on the performance of the Carrollton hotel
market as determined by HSP, especially the higher-quality hotels (Courtyard quality and better)
in the surrounding area. Properties from each level of quality were included in this analysis to
better understand the decentralized market as a whole.
The Carrollton hotel market is experiencing a great deal of growth. A good number of the hotels
in the area are along major transportation corridors, as stated previously, in this case the
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interstates and toll roads. This trend is common in rapidly developing areas due to their
accessibility, especially if the areas are a part of major metropolitan region, as is the case here
with the Dallas MSA.
Table 96 shows the hotel quality divisions in the Carrollton hotel market, which includes other
nearby cities.
Table 96: Carrollton Hotel Market, 2008
Type
Luxury
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Mid w/Food & Bev.
Midscale no F&B
Economy
Independent Upper
Independent Midscale
Independent Lower
Total
Percent of
Number
Total
1
1%
10
11%
22
25%
5
6%
24
27%
21
24%
0
0%
1
1%
5
6%
89
100%
Rooms
528
3,219
3,228
820
2,411
2,087
0
342
790
13,425
Percent of
Total
4%
24%
24%
6%
18%
16%
0%
3%
6%
100%
Avg. Rooms
per Hotel
528
322
147
164
100
99
-342
158
151
Source: STR, HSP
Of the 89 lodging facilities in the Carrollton area, consisting of more than 13,400 rooms, onequarter of all the rooms are mid-scale quality, most of which (24 of the 29) are limited service
with no food & beverage offerings. Currently there is only one luxury hotel in the area and 33
properties that are considered upscale or higher. Roughly 93% of the hotels in the Carrollton
area are national chains, leaving less than ten percent of the hotels classified as independent.
From a big picture perspective, the area’s many hotels are generally new but are of limited
quality and size, except for a few larger, upper upscale hotels. The following figure shows all of
the hotels in the Carrollton area, labeled by color by quality scale. A complete list of the
properties is provided in the Appendix.
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107
Figure 6: Hotels, Carrollton Area, 2008
The majority of hotels are located southwest of Carrollton in Addison, clustered around the
interchange with The Dallas North Tollway and Belt Line Road near the Addison Airport. Most
of the other properties are clustered around other highway interchanges and near attractions such
as malls. Currently there are no hotels other than those of the lowest quality scale in the vicinity
of the proposed site. There have been other hotels proposed in the Carrollton area, but none that
would influence the performance of a hotel at the proposed site.
In terms of the limited service hotels in Carrollton, they are generally lower quality and many
have a significant holdover population residing there from Hurrican Katrina. The resulting crime
has led to concerns about safety and viability of the existing hotels.
13.2.3 Segmentation
Given the above assessment of supply, it is important to understand the drivers of demand.
The Carrollton area hotel market is highly reliant upon the commercial business traveler. A vast
majority of the room nights in the market are sold Monday through Thursday. The leisure
segment does not perform consistently to fill weekend room nights on a regular basis. Retail
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108
attractions and a close proximity to Dallas help to attract leisure visitors, but overall there is a
significant decline in room occupancy from Friday to Sunday.
The following briefly describes the market segments.
Corporate Transient: The corporate transient market consists of those who are traveling for
business purposes, except for large meetings, conventions, and tradeshows. Sales visits,
research, small training sessions, and executive education are all considered to be in the
corporate transient segment. Most commercial travelers will fly to a market and rent a car. It is
estimated this market accounts for 70% of business in the area.
Group Market: The group segment consists of those visiting the Carrollton area for meetings of
all sizes, either as part of an association, SMERF group (social, military, educational, religious,
fraternal), corporate conventions or industry tradeshows. It also includes other corporate group
functions, although these are sometimes counted as individual commercial travelers. It is
estimated this market accounts for 18% of business in the area.
Leisure Segment: The leisure segment consists of those individuals, couples, families, or small
groups that travel for pleasure or to visit friends or family. It is estimated this market accounts
for 12% of business in the area.
If a hotel can pull transient business during the week (Monday through Thursday), it appears
likely that one or more hotels at the proposed site could be feasible based on a balance of
business and leisure visitors. However, if the hotel(s) is/are not able to cross-market and pull
area visitors, it will not fare as well and the feasibility is limited to weekday guests. However,
we do note a lack of leisure hotels of quality within the immediate area and there is an existing
need for quality rooms nearby.
13.2.4 Changes to Supply
In most of the last ten years there have been increases to the overall room supply in the
Carrollton hotel market.
The table below shows the supply change trend for the Carrollton hotel market since 1997,
according to Smith Travel Research.
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109
Graph 32: Percentage Supply Change, Carrollton Hotel Market, 1997-2008
20.0%
18.0%
16.7%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.8%
11.5%
10.0%
8.2%
7.8%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.6%
1.3%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2.7%
1.9%
0.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
The years 1997 through 2001 saw the most noticeable changes in room supply, with increases
ranging from eight to 17%. Two years (2002 and 2006) saw no additions to the room supply in
the Carrollton area, while the remaining years since 2001 have shown small growth rates. These
trends indicate that in recent years the development of new hotel rooms has slowed and there are
few signs that the supply will grow substantially in the immediate future, as only 255 rooms have
been or will be added in 2008, resulting in a two percent growth rate, as shown.
13.2.5 Conclusion
The Carrollton area hotel market has seen supply growth range from zero percent to 16% within
each of the last ten years. Most of the growth took place before 2002 and the addition of hotel
rooms into the market has slowed dramatically over the past seven years, which has helped
improve hotel performance. Some segments of the market perform much stronger than others,
with the corporate transient segment accounting for a majority of the room nights sold. There are
significant opportunities, especially in the leisure segment, for improved performance.
Amenities, attractions and creative marketing strategies are necessary to fill this weekend room
night gap. In terms of location, there are no quality hotels in the immediate site area and in fact
most area hotels are several miles in any direction from the site. This has both positive and
negative connotations for new hotel development on the site.
A greater explanation of specific hotel properties and their performance in the market will be
discussed in the next section.
13.3
Competitive Hotel Market
Reflecting on the larger context of the Carrollton hotel supply presented earlier, HSP chose a set
of primary competitive hotels to analyze for proposed hotel(s) to be developed at the subject site.
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110
Some of the factors considered were market orientation, quality, size, location, age, brand, and
market demand mix.
13.3.1 Competitive Hotel Overview
The table below shows a summary of the hotels in the competitive set.
Table 97: Competitive Set Hotels
Name
Location
Rooms
Courtyard Dallas Addison Quorum
Addison, TX
176
NYLO Hotel Plano
Plano, TX
176
Lewisville, TX
165
Doubletree Club Dallas Farmers Branch
Dallas, TX
160
Springhill Suites Dallas Addison Quorum
Addison, TX
159
Courtyard Dallas Plano In Legacy Park
Plano, TX
153
Embassy Suites Dallas Near The Galleria
Addison, TX
150
Hampton Inn North Dallas Plano
Plano, TX
131
Staybridge Suites Dallas Addison
Addison, TX
131
Hyatt Place Dallas Plano
Plano, TX
127
Hyatt Place Dallas Near The Galleria
Addison, TX
123
Courtyard Dallas Lewisville
Lewisville, TX
122
Sheraton Hotel Stonebriar
The Colony, TX 119
TownePlace Suites Dallas Plano
Plano, TX
106
Fairfield Inn & Suites Dallas North
Addison, TX
106
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Dallas Addison Addison, TX
102
Holiday Inn Dallas North Addison
Addison, TX
101
Hilton Garden Inn Addison
Addison, TX
96
90
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Dallas LewisvilleLewisville, TX
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Dallas North Tol Plano, TX
79
Fairfield Inn Lewisville
Lewisville, TX
71
2,643
Total
Average
126
Source: HSP, STR
The competitive set consists of 21 hotels, ranging in size from the 71-room Fairfield Inn
Lewisville to the 176-room Courtyard Dallas in Addison. Each has a number of attributes that
would be competitive with any new hotels on the proposed site. In all cases, the physical
attributes are considered mid/upscale or better. The competitive set is a mix of limited and fullservice properties and includes some hotels in neighboring cities due to their close proximity to
Carrollton and the fact that Carrollton currently has a noticeably small supply of quality hotel
rooms.
For this analysis, it was a combination of quality, location and market orientation that were the
primary factors for selection in the competitive set. All primarily service the business traveler,
mostly short-term, due to the many corporate demand generators in the greater area discussed in
previous chapters. There are a variety of extended stay properties in the area, but these were not
chosen because Carrollton lacks a strong corporate campus, which would tend to support such
products. This is not to imply that a suite-style product cannot work on this site. However, it
recognizes the limited demand for true extended-stay product.
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111
Location is often one of the most significant competitive attributes to hotels as visitors from all
segments desire to be close the primary demand generators that generated their stay. However,
some competitive properties are located farther away from the proposed subject site as other
characteristics such as target market segmentation and amenities help to make them competitive,
as is the case with some of the properties in The Colony and Northern Plano.
The figure below shows the competitive properties on a map of Carrollton and the surrounding
area. The non-competitive hotels in the market were excluded to highlight the competitive set.
Figure 7: Competitive Set Hotels
As shown, the competitive hotels are located several miles from the subject site. There are no
comparable or competitive hotels within the proximate area.
The table below shows HSP’s estimate of performance for each hotel in 2007, as well as
estimates of market segmentation based on interviews with individual properties and other
sources.
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112
Table 98: Competitive Set Occupancy, Rate, and Market Segmentation, 2007
Market Segmentation
Hotel
Rooms Occupancy
Courtyard Dallas Addison Quorum
176
64%
NYLO Hotel Plano
176
63%
165
58%
Doubletree Club Dallas Farmers Branch
160
60%
Springhill Suites Dallas Addison Quorum
159
64%
Courtyard Dallas Plano In Legacy Park
153
67%
Embassy Suites Dallas Near The Galleria
150
65%
Hampton Inn North Dallas Plano
131
62%
Staybridge Suites Dallas Addison
131
71%
Hyatt Place Dallas Plano
127
64%
Hyatt Place Dallas Near The Galleria
123
65%
Courtyard Dallas Lewisville
122
69%
Sheraton Hotel Stonebriar
119
67%
TownePlace Suites Dallas Plano
106
68%
Fairfield Inn & Suites Dallas North
106
63%
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Dallas Addison
102
60%
Holiday Inn Dallas North Addison
101
61%
Hilton Garden Inn Addison
96
62%
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Dallas Lewisville
90
63%
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites Dallas North Tollwa 79
58%
Fairfield Inn Lewisville
71
66%
Total/Weighted Averages
2,643
63.8%
Avg.
Daily
Rate
$111
$107
$108
$105
$105
$105
$111
$110
$105
$108
$110
$109
$114
$103
$91
$90
$95
$99
$93
$94
$92
$104
RevPA RevPAR
Corp.
Contract/
R
Yield Transient Group Leisure Other
$71
107%
77%
5%
18%
0%
$67
101%
73%
7%
20%
0%
$63
94%
78%
5%
17%
0%
$63
94%
78%
5%
17%
0%
$67
101%
84%
2%
14%
0%
$70
106%
78%
4%
18%
0%
$72
108%
83%
2%
15%
0%
$68
102%
79%
6%
15%
0%
$75
112%
83%
5%
12%
0%
$69
104%
77%
2%
21%
0%
$72
107%
78%
3%
19%
0%
$75
113%
77%
7%
16%
0%
$76
115%
73%
7%
20%
0%
$70
105%
86%
6%
8%
0%
$57
86%
75%
5%
20%
0%
$54
81%
79%
2%
19%
0%
$58
87%
77%
3%
20%
0%
$61
92%
76%
6%
18%
0%
$59
88%
74%
5%
21%
0%
$55
82%
70%
7%
23%
0%
$61
91%
80%
3%
17%
0%
$67
100%
78%
5%
17%
0%
Source: HSP
As shown, occupancy was estimated to range from 58% at the Holiday Inn Express in Lewisville
to 71% at the Staybridge Suites in Addison and averaged 64% for the set. Average daily rate
was lowest at the Holiday Inn Express in Addison ($90) and highest at the Sheraton Stonebriar
($114). Market segmentation averaged 78 percent corporate transient, 5% group, and 17%
leisure. The Townplace Suites had the highest rate of business travelers, at 86%, while no hotels
were particularly strong in the group or leisure segments as the amount of demand generators for
this type of business in the area is limited.
The following table shows the estimated market segmentation for the competitive set.
Table 99: Estimated Competitive Set Segmentation
Estimated Competitive Set
Segmentation
Corporate Transient
Group
Leisure
Contract/Other
Total
78%
5%
17%
0%
100%
Source: HSP
Corporate transient room nights are estimated to make up over three-quarters of all demand,
while group, leisure and contract demands combined account for 22%.
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113
13.3.2 New Competitive Hotels
There is currently one hotel under construction in the Carrollton area that the proposed hotel(s)
will be competitive with. The Aloft Hotel in Frisco is slated to open at the end of 2008 and will
add 136 new upscale-quality rooms to the competitive market.
There are several other hotels under consideration in the area. These include a Holiday Inn at
Frankford & I-35E and a proposed hotel on the southwest quadrant of the same intersection as
the subject site. There has also been interest by hotel developers in constructing a cluster of three
full service hotels of varying product type.
13.3.3 Primary Competitive Set Performance
HSP used Smith Travel Research data to analyze the competitive set. The table below displays
historical room supply, demand, occupancy, rate, and RevPAR for the selected primary
competitive supply of hotels.
Table 100: Supply, Demand, Occupancy, ADR, and RevPar, Competitive Hotels, 2002-2008
Historical Supply, Demand, Occupancy, ADR, and RevPar for Competitive Hotels
Year
Annual
Avg.
Available
Rooms
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2,024
2,183
2,183
2,183
2,183
2,267
2008 YTD (May)
Projected 2008
CAGR (2002-2008)
Available
Room
Nights
% Change
Room
Nights
Sold
%
Change
Occ.
%
Change
ADR
%
Change
RevPar
%
Change
738,760
796,795
796,795
796,795
796,795
827,496
-7.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.9%
415,446
459,135
490,928
539,743
522,600
529,716
-10.5%
6.9%
9.9%
-3.2%
1.4%
56.2%
57.6%
61.6%
67.7%
65.6%
64.0%
-2.5%
6.9%
9.9%
-3.2%
-2.4%
$79.85
$74.05
$74.41
$80.32
$93.66
$104.31
--7.3%
0.5%
7.9%
16.6%
11.4%
$44.90
$42.67
$45.85
$54.41
$61.43
$66.77
--5.0%
7.4%
18.7%
12.9%
8.7%
2,579
2,624
392,072
957,674
18.9%
15.7%
251,067
593,282
14.3%
12.0%
64.0%
62.0%
-3.9%
-3.2%
$110.97
$107.44
5.9%
3.0%
$71.06
$66.56
1.7%
-0.3%
4.9%
4.9%
--
7.1%
--
1.7%
--
5.8%
--
8.0%
--
*Compound Annual Growth Rate
Sources: Smith Travel Research, HSP
Demand for room nights in the set increased noticeably from 2002 to 2005. However, demand
and occupancy declined in 2006 (while the balance of the U.S. increased). Supply increased in
2007 and 2008, which led to a decrease in occupancy. Average daily rate growth has been
positive since 2004, with increases fluctuating from roughly one-half of a percent to 17% each
year. Revenue per available room has increased consistently over the period, although it is
projected to decline in 2008 by 0.3 percent.
The figure below shows supply and demand for rooms within the set over the period.
July 2008
114
Graph 33: Monthly Supply and Demand, Competitive Hotels, 2002-2008
Monthly Supply & Demand
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
M
ar
0
Ju 2
n
0
Se 2
p
0
D 2
ec
0
M 2
ar
0
Ju 3
n
0
Se 3
p
03
D
ec
0
M 3
ar
0
Ju 4
n
0
Se 4
p
0
D 4
ec
04
M
ar
0
Ju 5
n
0
Se 5
p
0
D 5
ec
0
M 5
ar
0
Ju 6
n
0
Se 6
p
06
D
ec
0
M 6
ar
07
Ju
n
0
Se 7
p
07
D
ec
0
M 7
ar
08
0
Supply
Demand
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Supply)
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Demand)
As shown, both supply and demand have followed somewhat similar trends, however supply has
outpaced demand since the second quarter of 2007. On average, neither has seen a large decline,
but demand flattened and began to drop from the second half of 2006 before slowly climbing
again in mid-2007. Struggling demand coupled with the additions to supply in 2008 will likely
face a flatter demand curve, leading potentially to decreases in occupancy.
The figure below shows room revenue changes by month (year over year), based on information
from Smith Travel Research.
July 2008
115
Graph 34: Monthly Year-Over-Year Total Competitive Set Room Revenue Change
Monthly Year-Over-Year Total Competitive Set Room Revenue Change
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
Ju
l0
7
O
ct
07
Ja
n
08
Ap
r
08
06
Ju
l0
6
O
ct
06
Ja
n
07
Ap
r
07
06
Ap
r
Ja
n
5
05
ct
O
Ju
l0
04
Ju
l0
4
O
ct
04
Ja
n
05
Ap
r
05
04
Ap
r
Ja
n
3
03
ct
O
03
Ju
l0
Ap
r
Ja
n
03
-10.0%
In most months, there has been revenue growth, however there have also been two distinct
period of revenue growth, first from spring 2004 through September 2006 (peaking at the end of
2005), and then from fall 2006 through May 2008.
The next figure shows Revenue Per Available Room, RevPAR, which is the product of
occupancy and rate.
Graph 35: Revenue Per Available Room
$100.00
$90.00
$80.00
$70.00
$60.00
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
Apr 08
Jan 08
Jul 07
Oct 07
Jan 07
Apr 07
Jul 06
Oct 06
Jan 06
Apr 06
Oct 05
Jul 05
Apr 05
Jan 05
Oct 04
Jul 04
Jan 04
Apr 04
Oct 03
Jul 03
Apr 03
Jan 03
Oct 02
Jul 02
Apr 02
Jan 02
$20.00
Source: STR
July 2008
116
The smooth line above shows the 12-month moving average. RevPAR has generally increased
since a low in January 2004; however it appears to have peaked due to decreases in occupancy.
The figure below shows monthly year-over-year change in occupancy. On average, RevPAR has
increased from $45 to nearly $70.
Graph 36: Occupancy and Year-Over-Year Change
100.0
80.0
60.0
%
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
Source: STR, HSP
Occupancy
May 08
Jan 08
Sep 07
May 07
Jan 07
Sep 06
May 06
Jan 06
Sep 05
May 05
Jan 05
Sep 04
May 04
Jan 04
Sep 03
May 03
Jan 03
-40.0
Year-Over-Year Change
Occupancy had increased almost every month until May of 2006 when the opposite trend began
to occur. Since then, occupancy rates were lower nearly every month. Monthly demand and
average daily rate for the set is shown below.
July 2008
117
Graph 37: Monthly Competitive Set Room Demand and Average Monthly Rate
Monthly Competitive Set Room Demand & Avg. Monthly Rate
$150
60,000
$140
Average Daily Rate
$120
40,000
$110
$100
30,000
$90
20,000
$80
$70
Monthly Room Night Demand
50,000
$130
10,000
$60
$50
Jan 02
0
Jul 02
Jan 03
Average Daily Rate
Jul 03
Jan 04
Demand
Jul 04
Jan 05
Jul 05
Jan 06
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Demand)
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Average Daily Rate)
The pattern exhibited in the figure above shows that, on average, monthly room demand
increased from 2001 before it began to fall in the second half of 2006; however it has increased
recently due to increased supply.
Average monthly rates have risen roughly $25 since July 2004. In the beginning of the period
rates were more than $80 but fell to approximately $70 during 2003 and the first half of 2004.
The rate curve trend appears to be peaking and should do so by the end of 2008, however rates
are now approaching $110 on average.
The figure below displays the seasonality of occupancy during the last seven years.
Graph 38: Seasonality of Occupancy, 2002-2007
Seasonality of Occupancy 2002 - 2007
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Max
Average
Min
40%
30%
July 2008
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
118
The competitive set’s seasonality averages show that the strongest months for room demand are
June and October, with October as the highest month averaging 70 percent. December is the
weakest month, as is typical for many cities. August and January are also weak months.
The figure below shows the seasonality of rate.
Graph 39: Seasonality of Rate, 2002-2007
$140
$130
Max
Average
$120
Min
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
Source: STR Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
Dec
The following figure shows the seasonality of RevPAR.
Graph 40: Seasonality of RevPar, 2002-2007
$100
$90
Max
Average
$80
Min
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Dec
Source: STR
July 2008
119
As would be expected from the prior graphs, RevPAR is highest in June and October, when the
combination of rate and occupancy is highest. December is the lowest month for RevPAR. July,
August and September are also relatively low months for RevPAR.
The figure below shows occupancy by day of week in the last 12 months of data.
Graph 41: Occupancy by Day of Week, June 2007 – May 2008
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Max
30%
Average
20%
Min
10%
0%
SUN
MON
TUES
WED
THURS
FRI
SAT
Source: STR
Sunday is typically the slowest night in the hotel business and this holds true in the Carrollton
area. Most corporate meetings typically occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, so these nights
average 80% occupancy for the competitive set. Monday and Thursday are relatively weak
compared to most weekday transient patterns. After Wednesday, occupancy drops until the
beginning of the next work week. The weekend nights of Friday and Saturday exhibit low
occupancy, approximately 25 percent lower than during the weekdays. The figure below shows
average daily rate by day of week.
Graph 42: Average Daily Rate by Day of Week, June 2007 to May 2008
$140
$130
$120
$110
Max
$100
Average
Min
$90
$80
$70
$60
Source: STR
July 2008
Sun
Mon
Tues
Wed
Thurs
Fri
Sat
120
Due to leisure travelers generally paying lower rates and the lack of overall weekend demand,
the weekend nights of Friday and Saturday typically represent the lowest rates of the week,
especially Saturdays. Sunday nights, while lower than during the week, are often occupied by
group and corporate transient guests, who pay more on average than leisure guests who have
traveled home by Sunday evening. The marked decline in weekend rates is instructive for those
wishing to build a hotel in the area. Any opportunity to capture weekend demand via family
amenities, such as a pool, or meeting or banquet facilities, would be beneficial, although at an
additional capital cost.
13.3.4 Unaccommodated Demand
Unaccommodated demand is defined as demand that would have been captured by the market,
but for a lack of available rooms. This demand is therefore deferred to later dates, accepts lesser
accommodations, moves just outside the competitive set, moves its business to another area, or
cancels plans altogether. As new properties are added to the market, it is expected that this
demand will be accommodated in the new supply. In most markets, average monthly demand in
excess of 70% indicates unaccommodated demand.
For every month that occupancy was greater than 70%, it is assumed that a portion over that
amount was unaccommodated.
The figure below shows the estimated number of unaccommodated room nights in the
competitive set historically in the Carrollton area.
Unaccommodated Room
Nights
Graph 43: Estimated Unaccommodated Room Nights
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2002
Source: HSP
2003
2004
2005
Year
2006
2007
For the competitive set, it is estimated that there were 11,000 unaccommodated room nights in
2005. However, the figure declined to approximately 1,400 room nights in 2006 as demand
softened. In 2007 it is estimated that 700 rooms were unaccommodated in the Carrollton area.
This is a relatively low number of room nights.
July 2008
121
13.3.5 Conclusion
The competitive hotel market has improved dramatically in the past few years in terms of
occupancy and rate. However, it appears to be peaking and has already shown signs of some
weakness in the face of expanding supply. Given the general economic climate and new supply,
it is expected the market will not support substantial supply increases for the next two years.
However, when planning, given the timeline for construction and pre-development, the general
market would likely support more hotels, if well-located, in two to three years.
13.4 Recommendations
This section discusses the salient points discovered in the analysis and the implications for hotel
development on the site.
13.4.1 Discussion of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
When considering the idea to develop a hotel, one must consider the strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats of and to the subject site Carrollton for such a development.
Strengths

Strong Corporate Climate and Existing Hotel Demand. The growth of Carrollton and
the Dallas area have been quite strong for many years, generally tied to a strong
corporate business climate. This includes incredible air lift and access from two
major airports on either side of Carrollton. As such, hotel activity during the week is
noticeably stronger on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and moderately stronger on
Mondays and Thursdays. However, Friday through Sunday are very weak, due to the
lack of group, leisure, and corporate activity on those days. A new hotel, as a result,
would likely be able to tap into the strong weekday demand and if positioned
correctly as an upper scale property could leverage that strong corporate demand into
higher rates, as well as generate additional leisure room nights.

Increasing Population and Improving Demographics. The increasing population of the
area is a supporting factor in the increasing demand for hotel room nights in the area,
especially on weekends. The strong income statistics play in the favor of Carrollton’s
attractiveness for high quality amenities and leisure activities to be developed. The
increasing population and its improving demographics provide a strong base of
support for events and activity at a new hotel. The need for special event locations
increases as the population and earnings grow.

Accessibility. The development site is along the north side of the President George
Bush Turnpike. Access points on and off the turnpike are available on each side of the
development at McCoy Road and Old Denton Road. Easy access is important for
hotel properties, as convenience will often become a deciding factor for transient
guests.

Visibility. The south end of the site is very visible from traffic using the George Bush
turnpike, although it is more visible to traffic traveling east due to the topography (the
site sits at the top of a hill and so it not as visible for those traveling westbound).

Lack of Hotels in Immediate Area. The existing supply of hotels is primarily located in
clusters along major thoroughfares outside of Carrollton and represents a heavily
July 2008
122
branded array of products in the market. Currently there are very few properties in
close proximity that would serve the demand generators proposed in the development
plan or the local business community. Local demand will gravitate toward new
supply due to its convenient location.

Commitment of the City and other Civic Leaders. There are many positive forces
coming together to improve Carrollton and create a sense of place for the city in a
booming metro area. Underutilized parcels are being purchased and improved both
privately and publicly.
Weaknesses

Visibility. As discussed, not all travelers along the George Bush Turnpike will have
visibility of the development site. Although signage will improve this situation,
westbound travelers on the turnpike will have no view of the hotel(s) due to the
gradient of the land and sound barrier walls that line the roadside.

Lack of Destination Appeal. Carrollton currently does not have a strong leisure profile.
It is busy during the week due to corporate activity, but leisure and group activity is
weak. This situation hurts local hotels as they have little ability to support occupancy
and rate on weekends. Without public support it will be hard for the private sector to
justify more than a limited-service product due to high construction costs versus low
occupancy levels.

Lack of Existing Product. Like retail, offices and restaurants, hotels generally are
developed in areas with existing hotels, as an intersection or area becomes known as a
hotel hub. This creates awareness and visibility. The lack of existing product can have
both positive and negative impacts on new supply. The downside is lack of critical
mass and awareness for the location.

Lack of Corporate and Restaurant Mass. Carrollton is primarily characterized by
residential and retail development, with few office cores (or restaurants). By
comparison, there are numerous office and restaurant developments in nearby
Addison and other areas. These support factors (offices create demand, restaurants
support it) do not exist in such a way that supports major hotel development.
Opportunities

Surrounding Area Development. The plan for the mixed-use development of the
Raiford Road Tract envisions the development of retail, restaurants and other leisure
options as well as housing and office. If developed, these will provide more of a
destination feel to the area. Without these developments, the hotel could struggle due
to lack of an active economic pocket.

Lack of Quality Competition. Opening hotel(s) at the proposed development site with
the proper elements will make it somewhat unique in the market among the similar
branded properties and provide it a competitive advantage.
Threats

U.S. Economy and Declining Demand. The current economic situation is unclear, but
growth has slowed and this could have an impact on the demand side of the equation.
Leisure travel slows during economic downturns, as does business travel. The
July 2008
123
performance of area businesses will determine to a large degree the continued hotel
demand for the area.

Continued growth of new supply. New hotels are projected to come into the market
and this will exacerbate slow periods (weekends) as well as already softening
corporate demand. Any pause in the construction of new hotels for the next 18
months will considerably assist the feasibility of the proposed hotel(s) in Carrollton.
13.4.2 Recommendations
HSP reviewed numerous conditions to determine the product that would be most feasible for a
hotel(s) at the proposed development site in Carrollton. Although the development of a unique
property is desired for the development, the market conditions and other attributes of the
development limit the feasibility of this type of concept with public financial support.
The table below shows a summary of the recommended hotel component of the Raiford Road
Tract.
Table 101: Summary of Recommendations
Summary of Recommendations
Proposed Hotel Components
Assumed Opening Date
January 1, 2011
Hotel I
Guest Rooms
Upscale Limited Service Branded Property
130
Pool
Fitness Center
Business Center
Parking
Shared
Shared
Yes
Shared 200 spaces
Hotel II
Guest Rooms
Midscale Limited Service Branded
110
Pool
Fitness Center
Business Center
Parking
Shared
Shared
Yes
Shared 200 spaces
Source: HSP
Note: The above recommendations are based on study completed to date. If additional study is
directed, a penetration model will be used to determine how the proposed products will perform.
This will include a detailed financial projection, from which an investment analysis can be
developed. Based upon a full study, a determination of hotel details can be provided. The
concepts above are the best recommendations based on our existing study.
It is suggested that two limited service branded hotels be developed as the economy recovers and
the hotel economy along with it. Due to the recent expansion of supply and declining
July 2008
124
occupancy, as well as the overall economic climate, it is believed that the hotel products should
not open until 2011 at the earliest and should coincide with the opening of the other subject site
elements. In addition, the market does not appear to support a full-service upper upscale product
without outside support (such as public funds). This lack of feasibility includes meeting space.
However, meeting space in the hotel, as well as a restaurant, would be beneficial for the overall
project and developing a more balanced market mix for the hotel(s). This would require public
assistance, however, and should be studied in more depth.
In terms of brands, we believe the hotels should be branded and potentially from the same brand
family. There are many instances of this synergy, where a Courtyard and Springhill Suites or a
Hyatt Place and Summerfield Suites are developed near each other. This would suit the
development.
13.4.3 Conclusion
The long-term goal for the Raiford Tract Development is an active live/work/play area of
development with an urban, but small-town feel. Although a unique hotel product may not be the
most feasible option for this project, the immediate area is lacking quality hotel rooms. The
synergy from the other components of the development should act as a catalyst to position the
hotel(s) properly in the market as long as the correct combinations of amenities or demand
generator components are added to the development. If the City desires to participate, a hotel
with full service amenities and function space would be welcomed locally, but would require
additional financial support beyond what the private sector will be willing to bear.
July 2008
125
14. Site Recommendations and Forecasts
Table 102 summarizes the residential build-out for the Raiford Road site, totaling 495 to 545
units. Between 300 and 330 apartments would be located on the 15-acre site off Raiford Road.
A total of 55 to 60 single-family detached units could be built on the 11-acre site. The 21-acre
site directly south and west of the single-family units would support a mix of 55 to 65
townhouses and 85 to 90 units of senior for-sale units. The remaining 12.5-acre site, fronting
President George Bush Turnpike, would be available for a hotel and/or retail.
Table 102: Residential Site Recommendations,
Unit Type
Units
Pricing
Apartments
300 - 330
$520 $1,270
Single-Family
55 - 60 $290,000 - $400,000
Townhouse
55 - 65 $190,000 - $275,000
Senior-For Sale
85 - 90 $200,000 - $220,000
Total
495 - 545
The proposed Forneaux Creek greenway would be a prerequisite to all residential development.
This amenity would drive demand and pricing on the site, and augment the project’s brand for
recreation and preserving the environment.
Residential product on the Raiford Road project should be implemented in phases, commencing
with the market-rate apartments on the 15-acre site south of the proposed greenway. Market
demand is currently strongest for this product type, and this trend should continue for the next
two to three years. Phase 2 should consist of the single family housing on the 11-acre site north
of the greenway. This small neighborhood would connect with existing streets, and attract
existing Carrollton area residents seeking the privacy of detached units with a low-maintenance,
recreation-based lifestyle.
The townhouses and/or for-sale senior product would be constructed in Phase 3, driven in part by
site planning issues related to the small lake and the existing farmhouse on the 21-acre parcel.
The combination of townhouses and senior housing assumes that the existing lake is filled in and
graded for development. Delaying Phase 3 would allow the townhouse market to recover from
its current slowdown. It also recognizes the future premiums and higher densities that could be
obtainable as the surrounding market area urbanizes, and the DART light rail station at Trinity
Mills opens.
The two recommended limited-service hotels would occupy a portion of the 12.5-acre parcel
fronting the President George Bush Turnpike. It is recommended that these hotels open in early
2011, which would likely be concurrent with the delivery of the Phase 1 market-rate apartments.
The balance of the parcel would likely contain retail and/or professional office space.
July 2008
126
Appendix
Since the mixed-use comparables are located in different submarkets and are of different ages, a
statistical analysis was performed to determine the rent premium or discount for each submarket
and for a community’s age. These premiums or discounts were then used to adjust the
comparable per square foot rents accordingly for the Raiford Road site.
A sample of 227 communities in the four submarkets was used to determine the submarket
location and age adjustments. Rents per unit in the communities were analyzed using a multivariate regression analysis using three variables (Appendix Table I). All the variables showed
statistical significance except for the location adjustment for the Plano/Allen/McKinney
submarket. With R2s ranging from .209 to .313 the three variable regression explain between
approximately 21% - 31% of the rent differences between the communities. The age of the
property showed a nonlinear relationship with price, and was optimized by an exponential decay
transformation.
As shown in Appendix Table I, per square foot rent adjustment for location (m2) was $0.19 for
North Irving where Amli at La Villita is located. The $0.19 per square foot rent per unit
premium for North Irving means that the rent per unit at Amli La Villita must be adjusted
downward by $0.19 per square foot to adjust for its superior location when compared to the
Raiford Road site in the Carrollton/Addison/Coppell submarket. Since age exhibited a nonlinear relationship with rent per unit, determining the age adjustment requires multiplying the age
coefficient m3 ($0.32) by the exponential decay function (e -0.0710*Age) and subtracting that from
$0.32 to determine the age discount when compared to a new community. For example, a
community built in 2007 will have an age adjustment of $0.02 = $0.32- $0.32*e -0.0710*(1 year old).
Appendix Table I: Regression Statistics for Submarket
Location and Age Adjustments, Comparable OneBedrooms, May 2008
x1
x2
x3
Plano/Allen/
e-0.0710*Age
Statistic
McKinney
North Irving
Coefficient (mn)
$0.02
$0.19
$0.32
t-statistic
0.56
3.58
5.34
R2, F, df
0.214
15.19103241
223
Constant (b)
$0.82
Rent/Sq ft/Unit = b + m1*x1 + m2*x2 + m3*x3
Equation
July 2008
127
Appendix Table II: Regression Statistics for Submarket
Location and Age Adjustments, Comparable TwoBedrooms, May 2008
x1
x2
x3
Plano/Allen/
e-0.0602*Age
Statistic
McKinney
North Irving
Coefficient (mn)
$0.01
$0.14
$0.34
t-statistic
0.50
3.40
2
R , F, df
0.313
25.41724448
223
Constant (b)
$0.75
Equation
Appendix Table III: Regression Statistics for Submarket
Location and Age Adjustments, Comparable ThreeBedrooms, May 2008
x1
x2
x3
Plano/Allen/
e-0.0580*Age
Statistic
McKinney
North Irving
Coefficient (mn)
$0.09
($0.28)
$0.70
t-statistic
1.23
(2.85)
5.92
2
R , F, df
0.209
14.70091337
223
Constant (b)
$0.11
Equation
As shown in Appendix Table IV through Appendix Table VI, the adjustments from the
regressions were then applied to the comparables by bedroom type in order to account for their
ages and locations. All the comparable rents were adjusted upward for age to represent a new
community completed in 2008, and adjusted accordingly by submarket to match the
Carrollton/Addison/Coppell submarket.
Appendix Table IV: Adjustment of Per Square Foot Rent from Regression, OneBedrooms, 2008
Submarket Age
Avg
per SF1.
Community
per SF
Open x1-x2
x3
Post Addison Circle
$1.37 1997
$0.00
$0.18
$1.55
Post Legacy
$1.07 2000
$0.00
$0.14
$1.21
AMLI at La Villita
$1.16 2007
($0.19)
$0.02
$1.00
$1.18 2004
$0.00
$0.08
$1.26
$1.22 2001
$0.00
$0.13
$1.34
Total/Avg.
$1.27
$1.39
July 2008
128
Appendix Table V: Adjustment of Per Square Foot Rent from Regression, TwoBedrooms, 2008
Submarket Age
Avg
per SF1.
x3
Community
per SF
Open x1-x2
Post Addison Circle
$1.33 1997
$0.00
$0.17
$1.49
Post Legacy
$1.01 2000
$0.00
$0.13
$1.14
AMLI at La Villita
$1.06 2007
($0.14)
$0.02
$0.94
$1.13 2004
$0.00
$0.07
$1.21
$1.20 2001
$0.00
$0.12
$1.32
Total/Avg.
$1.21
$1.30
Appendix Table VI: Adjustment of Per Square Foot Rent from Regression,
Two-Bedrooms, 2008
Submarket Age
Avg
per SF1.
x3
Community
per SF
Open x1-x2
Post Addison Circle
$1.00 1997
$0.00
$0.33
$1.33
Total/Avg.
$1.00
$1.33
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Disclaimer
Warren & Associates and Hunden Strategic Partners conducted extensive due diligence to verify
data obtained for this report. Every reasonable effort was made to provide the most current and
accurate information, but Warren & Associates and Hunden Strategic Partners are not
responsible for inaccuracies provided by our clients or any other data sources.
Recommendations and forecasts contained in this report are opinions based on interpretation of
economic and market data. Warren & Associates and Hunden Strategic Partners make no
warranty or representation that any prospective results reported in this analysis will be realized,
including demand and financial estimates and forecasts. There is no guarantee of income or
profit associated with this report.
July 2008
130