Fast Takes on Cigars
Transcription
Fast Takes on Cigars
FAST TAKES ON CIGARS The NATO Show’s version of “TED Talks” Operator Chris Beaulier Operations Director Cigaret Shopper Wholesaler Keith Canning Managing Partner Pine State Trading Company Manufacturer Jeff Rossi, CPCM Senior Director Swisher International Chris Beaulier Cigaret Shopper Fast Takes on Cigars Retailer Viewpoints Chris Beaulier Brewer, Maine What is the customer looking for? Price? Flavor? Size? Variety? No Tip? Plastic Tip? Wood Tip? Mini? Regular? Large? Single? 2 Pack? 5 Pack? Larger? Margin & Profit vs Volume Average Margin on a 2/99¢ foil pouch ~ 28% Average Margin on a 3/99¢ foil pouch ~ 24% V S Natural Leaf is King in Maine! Cigar stick have grown each of the last 40 months. • Multi Stick Foil Pouch cigars grew by +33% the last 6 months. • Sweet, Tropical, and Pineapple are the fastest growing flavors (strawberry and white grape are the fastest declining). • The category is quickly moving towards nearly all singles/foil pouches and cigarillos (only 21% of category sticks are traditional cardboard packs). 5 Packs or Pouches? Pros and Cons • Foil pouches – 2 for 99¢ or 3 cigars for the price of 2 • • • • • Wide variety and assortment of flavors Popular with today’s young adult tobacco consumer Available in both HTL and Natural Leaf Wrappers Cons ~ Sheer number of sku’s available – constant new item introductions, possibility of obsolete inventory due to the latest “flavor of the month” 5 packs – Traditional 5 pk cigars or 5 for 3 packaging • • • • Staple items – typically high volume items that have withstood the test of time. VERY consistent volume Both HTL and Natural Leaf Wrapped cigars available, typically the lowest retail cost per stick Mature adult tobacco consumers typically purchase out of this segment Cons ~ Higher tax jurisdictions make this package too expensive for many consumers 3 for 2 pouches VS 5 for 3 packs Which way is YOUR market shifting? • 2013 Cigaret Shopper Large Cigar category up 35.79% overall. Swisher International UP 35.03% • 2014 Cigaret Shopper Large Cigar category up 4.9%. Swisher International UP 12.92% • #1 Selling Domestic Cigar Item in Cigaret Shopper: Swisher Sweet 5 pack Cigarillo • #2 Selling Domestic Cigar Item in Cigaret Shopper: Swisher Sweet 5 pack Plastic Tip Cigarillo • #25 Swisher Sweets BLK Cigarillo Smooth Tip 30/3ct Foil Pack (1st 3pk foil on top 100 list) • #26 Garcia y Vega Game Cigarillo Pineapple 30/2pk Foil Upright (1st 2pk foil on top 100 list) WHY is our Cigar Category SUCCESSFUL and GROWING? Category > Other Tobacco Products 52 Week Ending Apr 04, 2015 Customer Average Sales/Store/Wk : $922.90 Market Average Sales/Store/Wk : $142.90 Sales Index to Market : 645.8 Customer Average SKUs Stocked : 82 Market Average SKUs Stocked : 20 SKU Index to Market : 410.0 Customer Average Sales/SKU/Store/Wk : $11.25 Market Average Sales/SKU/Wk : $7.15 Sales/SKU Index to Market : 157. To Contract or NOT to Contract? Buydowns? Rebates? Self Serve? NON Self Serve? Product Placement? Minimum space percentages? Minimum SKU requirements? Margin Parity? Keith Canning Pine State Trading Company CMetrics™ Overview of Other Tobacco Products 1st Quarter 2015 Keith Canning Managing Partner Pine State Trading Company April 2015 InRhythm, Inc Total Tobacco Space Convenience Tobacco vs. Non-Tobacco Sales • Total warehouse delivered convenience store retail dollar sales for Q1 2015 are projected at $22 billion, up vs. YAGO (+5.2%) Share of C-Store $ Sales - Q1 2015 Q1 2015 % Change vs. YAGO 0.0% Non Tobacco 25% Cigarettes OTP 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 3.5% 8.0% OTP 11% Cigarettes 64% CMetricsTM 13 Weeks ending 3/28/2015 InRhythm Inc. – All Rights Reserved InRhythm,Source: Inc. Confidential: Copyright 2015 – All Rights Reserved Non Tobacco 8.5% # 18 Center Store Category Sales Performance Center Store categories account for $3.6 billion in Q1 2015 warehouse delivered c-store sales, with 7.0% growth vs. YAGO Distributor delivered Alternative, Salty and Packaged Sweet Snacks are all showing double-digit dollar growth vs. YAGO $ % Change vs. YAGO Center Store Categories Dollar Edible Share General Merch Packaged 5% Sweet Snacks 7% Grocery 5% 0.0% 20.0% Candy 8.1% Alternative Snacks Candy 35% 14.2% Health & Beauty 6.3% Salty Snacks Auto Products 7% Packaged Beverages 8% Salty Snacks 9% -20.0% Non-Edible Grocery 3% 10.9% Packaged Beverages Auto Products 4.0% -3.7% Packaged Sweet Snacks 12.8% General Merch Health & Beauty 10% Alternative Snacks 11% TM 13 Weeks ending 3/28/2015 InRhythm Inc. – All Rights Reserved CMetricsCopyright InRhythm, Source: Inc. Confidential: 2015 – All Rights Reserved 5.1% Edible Grocery Non-Edible Grocery 0.5% -1.7% # 19 OTP: Retail Dollar Sales Trends • Q1 2015 dollar sales growth is up 8.0% vs. YAGO. This category continues to show steady upward growth trends Millions OTP Retail Dollar Sales Trend $260 $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 TM 13 Weeks Source: CMetrics 3/28/2015 InRhythm, Inc. Confidential: Copyright 2015 –ending All Rights Reserved InRhythm Inc. – All Rights Reserved 3/6/2015 2/6/2015 1/6/2015 12/6/2014 11/6/2014 10/6/2014 9/6/2014 8/6/2014 7/6/2014 6/6/2014 5/6/2014 4/6/2014 3/6/2014 2/6/2014 1/6/2014 12/6/2013 11/6/2013 10/6/2013 9/6/2013 8/6/2013 7/6/2013 6/6/2013 5/6/2013 4/6/2013 $100 # 20 OTP: Sub-Category Performance • Smokeless (Moist & SNUS) products show 8.7% dollar growth vs. YAGO, as has been the trend for this sub-category • E-Cigarettes are showing a bump in dollar sales in Q1 of 31.1%, recalling for 2014 dollar sales grew only 5% Q1 2015 Dollar Share of OTP Pipe/Cigarett e Tobacco 3% E-Cigarettes 6% Papers 2% Vaping 1% % Dollar Chg. Vs. YAGO -100.0% Cigars 20% 0.0% 100.0% Smokeless 8.7% Cigars 4.5% E-Cigarettes Pipe/Cigarette Tobacco Papers Smokeless 68% CMetricsTM 13 Weeks ending 3/28/2015 InRhythm Inc. – All Rights Reserved InRhythm,Source: Inc. Confidential: Copyright 2015 – All Rights Reserved Vaping 31.1% -7.4% -0.4% 0.0% # 21 OTP: Manufacturer Performance • Lorillard’s OTP performance continues to decline as the market continues adjusting for E-Cigs Manufacturer Dollar Share of OTP 0.0 25.0 ALTRIA Dollar % Change vs. YAGO 50.0 -60.0% 44.2 RJ REYNOLDS ALTRIA 24.9 SWEDISH MATCH 6.5 6.4% SWEDISH MATCH 5.6% SWISHER INTERNATIONAL 5.7% 3.5 COMMONWEALTH -… REPUBLIC TOBACCO 2.2 REPUBLIC TOBACCO -7.5% NATIONAL TOBACCO… 2.0 NATIONAL TOBACCO… -4.3% 1.5 NU MARK LLC 1.0 LOGIC TECHNOLOGIES 0.6 ALL OTHER 90.0% 10.8% COMMONWEALTH -… LORILLARD INC 40.0% RJ REYNOLDS 8.1 SWISHER INTERNATIONAL -10.0% -2.8% LORILLARD INC -31.9% NU MARK LLC LOGIC TECHNOLOGIES 5.6 TM Source: Weeks 2015 ending 3/28/2015 InRhythm Inc. – All Rights Reserved InRhythm, Inc. CMetrics Confidential: 13 Copyright – All Rights Reserved 100.0% -11.3% ALL OTHER -20.9% # 22 Cigars: Manufacturer Unit Share Performance • Cigar units for Q1 2015 are up 2.7%, but only the top 3 manufacturers show growth vs. YAGO • Good Times Tobacco was up in 2014, but is flat so far for 2015 Unit % Change vs. YAGO Unit Share of Cigars 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 PHILIP MORRIS 33.0 SWISHER… 28.3 SWEDISH MATCH 19.5 COMMONWEALTH -… 8.9 GOOD TIMES TOBACCO 1.8 CHEYENNE INTL 1.5 NATIONAL TOBACCO… NHA INC ALL OTHER 40.0 1.0 0.8 5.2 Source: CMetricsTMCopyright 13 Weeks2015 ending InRhythm Inc. – All Rights Reserved InRhythm, Inc. Confidential: – All3/28/2015 Rights Reserved -60.0% -30.0% 0.0% PHILIP MORRIS 8.5% SWISHER… 7.5% SWEDISH MATCH COMMONWEALTH -… 5.4% -15.0% GOOD TIMES TOBACCO CHEYENNE INTL NATIONAL TOBACCO… 30.0% -0.6% -13.1% -22.0% NHA INC -13.4% ALL OTHER -12.5% # 23 Cigars: Manufacturer Dollar Share Performance • Cigar dollars are up 4.5%, outpacing unit growth indicating a drop in the levels of promoting and discounting so far for 2015 Dollar % Change vs. YAGO Dollar Share of Cigars 0.0 10.0 20.0 PHILIP MORRIS 27.8 COMMONWEALTH -… 15.7 SWEDISH MATCH 15.1 CHEYENNE INTL 2.3 KRETEK INTERNATIONAL 1.3 GOOD TIMES TOBACCO 1.3 ALL OTHER 40.0 -30.0% -10.0% 10.0% 30.0% 50.0% 29.4 SWISHER INTERNATIONAL INTERCONTINENTAL… 30.0 1.1 PHILIP MORRIS 14.4% SWISHER INTERNATIONAL COMMONWEALTH -… 6.0% -2.3% SWEDISH MATCH 5.9% CHEYENNE INTL -13.1% KRETEK INTERNATIONAL -2.4% GOOD TIMES TOBACCO -1.5% INTERCONTINENTAL… 5.9 Source: CMetricsTMCopyright 13 Weeks2015 ending InRhythm Inc. – All Rights Reserved InRhythm, Inc. Confidential: – All3/28/2015 Rights Reserved 7.3% ALL OTHER-15.9% # 24 Detailed Large Cigar Excise Tax Rates VT - 92% from 41% on 7/1/09 WA* 95% from 75% on 5/1/2010 OR* 65% from 35% on 2/1/2007 MT 50% from 25% on 1/1/2005 ID 40% from 35% on 7/1994 NV 30% enacted 1984 CA 29.82% from 30.68% on 7/1/2013 HI* 50% from 40% on 9/30/09 AK 75% from 25% on 10/1/1997 UT 86% from 35% on 7/2010 AZ 7.3c – 21.8c from 4.3c – 13c on 1/1/2007 WY 20% ND 28% from 22% on 7/1993 SD 35% from 10% on 1/1/2007 MN 95% from 70% on 7/2013 NE 20% from 15% on 10/2002 CO 40% from 20% on 1/2005 NM 25% enacted 7/1986 OK 11c – 12c on 1/2005 TX .75c – 1.5c MA - 40% from 30% on 7/31/13 WV - 7% enacted 2002 WI* 71% from 50% on 9/1/2009 IA* 50% from 22% on 3/2007 KS 10% enacted 1973 ME - 20% from 16% on 6/2005 NH – 65% from 48% on 8/1/13 MI 32% from 20% on 7/1/2004 OH 17% enacted 2/1/1993 NY 75% from46% on 8/1/10 RI* - 80% from 40% on 4/10/09 NH CT – 50% from 27.5% on 7/1/2011 PA 0% IN 24% VA from 10% 18% on enacted 7/1/07 MO KY 3/2005 10% 15% from 8% on NC – 12.8% 4/1/09 from 10% on TN – 6.6% from 9/1/09 AR 6% on 7/02 68% from AL GA 32% on .3c –4.05c 23% from MS 3/1/2009 from 13% on 15% from .015c – 6/2003 LA** 11.25% DC*– 2.0525c SC$2.00 8% - 20% on 5/04 Onfrom 10/1/08 5% 1.1c on –From 2c in $1.00 1968 1/1975 IL 36% from 18% on 7/1/12 NJ - 30% from 48% on 3/2002 DE - 15% from 30% on 3/1987 MD - 70% from 15% on 7/1/2012 DC* - 12% enacted 1/1/2006 FL 0% As of April 1, 2009, the Federal excise tax rate is 52.75% of the selling price with a maximum tax of $0.4026 per cigar. * States with a cigar tax cap of $0.50 per unit. ** Cigars net invoiced by manufacturer at $120 per 1,000 or less will be taxed at 8% of invoiced price; cigars net invoiced by manufacturer at over $120 per 1,000 will be taxed at 20% of invoiced price. -- Effective July 1, 2010, Philadelphia increased its large cigar tax rate from 0% to $0.036/unit. -- Effective 1/1/13, Cook County, IL increased its large cigar tax rate from $0.25/cigar to $0.30/cigar. PR 0% As of February 24, 2014 Little Cigars Tax Rate Equalization (LCE) Passed/Failed/Pending Enacted Prior to 2014 (15 + PR) Enacted in 2014 (0) Pending in 2014 (6) Failed in 2014 (0) WA $3.025/pac k MT $1.70/pack OR 65% WP ID 40% WP NV 30% WP WY 20% WP UT $1.70/pack CA 87c/pack AZ 44.1c/pack CO 40% MP NM 25% MP HI $0.16/stic k ND 28% WP SD 35% MP NE 20% WP MN* $2.83/ pack IA $1.36/pack KS 10% WP OK 72c/pack TX 1c for each 10 AK 75% WP Pack = 20 Cigars WP = Wholesale Price MP = Manufacturer’s Price WI 71% MI 32% WP VT ** NH ME $2.62/p k 1.78/pk. 20% WP MA $3.51/p NY $4.35/pk k. RI** $3.50/p PA $1.60/pk k OH* 37% WV IL IN $1.98/ 24% 7% VA pack WP WP MO KY 10% WP 10% 15% WP NC MP 12.8% WP TN – 62c/pk. SC AR 5% MP AL 68% GA MS 4c for MP 15% each 10 5c/pk. LA* MP 8%; 20% FL 0% *MN effective 7/1/13 equalized cigars weighing less than 3lb/1000 to cig rate. Those weighing more than 3lb/1000 taxed at $5.66/pack. *OH effective 10/1/13 sets ad-valorem rate at 37% to try and equalize to cig rate * LA: Cigars invoiced by manufacturer at $120 per 1,000 or less will be taxed at 8% of invoiced price; cigars invoiced by manufacturer at over $120 per 1,000 will be taxed at 20% of invoiced price. **RI and VT equalized little cigar tax rates at 3lbs per 1,000 prior to 2013. --Effective 3/1/12, Cook County, IL increased its little cigar tax rate from 0% to $0.05/cigar. CT $3.40/p k NJ 30% WP DE 15% WP MD DC $2.50/p k 30% MP PR $3.23/pk. As of February 24, 2014 Pipe Tobacco & RYO Excise Tax Rates VT VT WA 95% ND MT 50% OR 65% NV 30% CA 29.82% ID 40% UT 86% MP Pipe: 28% RYO: $0.022 / 0.09 oz. WY 20% CO 40% HI 70% NM 25% IA 50% OK 80% TX $1.16/o z AK 75% % of Manufacturer’s Price WI 71% SD 35% KS 10% NH ME 65% 20% MA MN 95% NE 20% AZ Smoking Tobacco: $0.223/oz. Cavendish: $0.055/oz. Pipe: 92% $1.66 RYO:$1.87/ oz. IL 36% MI 32% OH IN 17% WV 24% 7% NY 75% RI 80% PA CT 50% VA MO 10% 10% KY 15% NC 12.8% TN 6.6% SC AR SC 5% 68% $.07 GA MS AL* 10% LA 15% 33% AL: ≤ 1-1/8 oz.: 4 cents 1-1/8 oz. to ≤ 2 oz.: 10 cents Over 2 oz. ≤ 3 oz.: 16 cents Over 3 oz. ≤ 4 oz.: 22 cents Each additional oz. or fraction: 6 cents 40% retail 90% vendor price FL 85% NJ 30% DE 15% DC DC** MD 12% 15% 30% sales tax PR As of February 24, 2014 Educating the Retailer InRhythm, Inc. Confidential: Copyright 2015 – All Rights Reserved # 28 Consumer Pack Value Equivalency $7.89 Packs for $20 2.5 1 pk Filtered Cigar $1.49 13.4 6oz Pipe Tobacco $.96 20.8 16oz Pipe Tobacco $.65 30.7 1 Disposable E-Cigarette $.50 40 10ml Bottle E-Juice $.15 133 Nicotine Delivery System 1 pk Full Revenue Cigarette InRhythm, Inc. Confidential: Copyright 2015 – All Rights Reserved # 29 Summary ■ OTP showing strong growth, especially Smokeless, E-Cigarettes and although small in share, Vaping ■ Given higher OTP margin contribution, C-Store profitability should increase, despite weak overall sales levels and lower cigarette margins ■ Retailers are increasing shelf space for OTP ■ Retailers increasingly look to drive value, more promo activities on premium brands, as well as focus on value brands and private label ■ Distribution, shelf-space and assortment are a major challenge for OTP InRhythm, Inc. Confidential: Copyright 2015 – All Rights Reserved # 30 Jeff Rossi Swisher International DTO BEST PRACTICES Large Cigar Top Line • Large Mass Market Cigar last 52 Weeks Total US • 5.2 Billion Large Cigars all outlets • 233 Million Large Cigars DTO • Total Category is up 3.6% • MSA predicts cigars could reach 19 Billion Globally by 2019 • Growth Drivers • Flavor Blast / Innovation • Foil Pouches / Freshness • Value PrePrice offerings • Premium Mass Market Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - 52 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 - Confidential Channel Brick And Mortar Retail • Tobacco Outlet’s 11,270 + 2.9% • Total Convenience stores 151,282 + 1% – Single Store operators 95,056 + 1.3% Source: TDLinx Data as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - Confidential DTO Best Practices • 3x the Average Space POG for Cigars • Secondary Placement Opportunities – Floor Displays – Counter Displays • Complete Portfolio – Premium Cigars – Little / Filtered Cigars – Smokeless • • Destination for the Adult Consumer Manufacturer Support DTOs Support The Complete Category Portfolio LARGE CIGARS LARGE SWISHER #1 LARGE CIGARS CIGAR MFCTR MOIST MOIST SNUFF PREMIUM CIGARS RYO DTO #1 MST SNUFF OUTLET CPW MANUFACTURE OPPORTUNITY IN DTO’S VAPOR / ECIG LITTLE & FILTERED CIGARS CHEWING TOBACCO Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - YTD Weeks Ending 3/21/15 - Confidential DTO’s Are More Diversified With Their Overall Sales When Compared With Convenience Stores DTO Channel – OTP Breakout Convenience Channel – OTP Breakout Adult Consumer Volume Share By Category YTD - 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 Adult Consumer Volume Share By Category YTD - 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 13% Moist Snuff Large Cigars 13% 30% 1% 30% 1% 6% 6% 1% E-Category Filtered Cigars Little Cigars Loose Leaf/Chew Moist Snuff Snus / CTP Large Cigars Filtered Cigars Little Cigars 47% Loose Leaf/Chew 47% 38% 54% 1% Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - Confidential E-Category Filtered Cigars Little Cigars Loose Leaf/Chew Moist Snuff Snus / CTP Large Cigars Large Cigar Market Growing And Following Cyclical Trends For DTO’s Large Cigar Category Volume Trend 4 Week Increments – Volume In Millions 2014 Large Cigar Growth In DTO’s +3% YTD 2015 19.9 18.6 Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - Confidential 12/26/15 11/28/15 10/31/15 10/3/15 9/5/15 8/8/15 7/11/15 6/13/15 5/16/15 Total Large Cigar Category Increased 3.6% DTO Volume Declined (2.5)% Convenience Stores Increased 9.3% 4/18/15 2/21/15 1/24/15 17.9 3/21/15 52 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 19.3 DTO’s Are Performing Considerably Well From A Share And Volume Perspective DTO Large Cigar Category Volume % Chg vs. YAG YTD - 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 DTO’s Have Acquired A 5.5% Share of Ttl Large Cigars YTD 3/7/15 42,223,988 YTD 3/8/14 +2.9% 41,054,505 Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - Confidential DTO’s Have The Highest Velocity Out Of All Trade Class Channels Large Cigar Classes of Trade Large Cigar Channel Velocity Per Store Per Week YTD – 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 YTD - 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 C-Store Drug 312.5 DTO 509.6 2% 7% 5% 4% 1% 429.1 DTO’s Outperform C-Stores In SPW By 15% 5% All Other 95.2 76% DTO Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - Confidential C-Store Drug 69.9 Mass Merch 171.8 Liquor 231.9 Grocery Grocery Liquor Mass All Other Merch DTO’s Perform Well In All Segments Of Large Cigars DTO Large Cigar Share By Package Format C-Store Large Cigar Share By Package Format YTD - 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 YTD - 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 – Volume in Millions 4% 13% Five 38% Pack Pouch 16% 18% 38%Five Pack Other 33% Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - Confidential Pouch Five Pack Pouch Singles 33% Five Pack Pouch Singles 19% 19% 59% 59% Other Pouches In C-Stores Are The Key Growth Segment For Large Cigars -- +21% DTO Large Cigar Pouch Performance C-Store Manufacturer Large Cigar Pouch Perf. YTD - 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 YTD - 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 – Volume In Millions 3/7/15 YTD 3/8/15 YTD 3/7/15 YTD 35.4% 3/8/15 YTD 47.4% 32.2% 25.3% 47.9% Swisher Swedish Match Altadis Swisher Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - Confidential Swedish Match 19.5 MM 23.5 MM 86.9 MM 108.8 MM 98.6 MM 145.3 MM 0.9 MM 1.4 MM 3.0 MM 3.9 MM 4.5 MM 6.1 MM 20.4% Altadis All Major Manufacturers For DTO’s Are Contributing To Overall Volume Growth Large Cigar Manufacturer Volume & Volume Performance YTD 10 Weeks Ending 3/7/15 vs. YAG – Volume In Millions 14.3 4.4 % 9.1 7.4 3.5 % 3.1 % 4.8 3.7 18.2 % 2.6 0.1 Swisher Altadis JMC Swedish (9.0)% (8.7)% Good Times National Source: MSAi Database as of 3/21/15 - Swisher International, Inc. - Confidential 0.4 (60.1)% 0.0 % Trendsettah All Other Strategies Behind Large Cigar Industry Success Is Innovation • • • • • Packaging – Pouch Technology Blends – Diversity Partnerships With Retailers & Distributors Pricing Analytics Summary / Next Steps • Discount Tobacco Outlets remain competitive with other channels • Large Cigar growth rate continues for DTOs • Sales & Marketing Strategies in terms of innovation are working to assist in growth • Continue working your local manufacture representative to stay in front of what is happening in your markets FAST TAKES ON CIGARS Chris Beaulier, Cigaret Shopper [email protected] Keith Canning, Pine State Trading Company [email protected] Jeff Rossi, Swisher International [email protected]