Kreft-The Schweinrich Structure

“The Schweinrich structure”, a potential site
for industrial scale CO2 storage and a test
case for a safety assessment in Germany
Eric Kreft, Rickard Svensson, Robert Meyer, Arie Obdam,
Rob Arts, Christian Bernstone, Sara Eriksson, Pierre Durst,
Irina Gaus, Bert van der Meer, Cees Geel
Rob van Eijs
CO2STORE Study Sites
2
Major power plants operated by Vattenfall
2000
1000
Lippendorf
Boxberg
Schwarze Pumpe
0
Jänschvalde
Electricity production [MW]
Schwarze Pumpe Power
plant: Representative size
3000
& location
10 Mton CO2 / year
3
Vattenfall CO2 free power plant project
4
Location of Schwarze Pumpe Power Plant
5
CO2 injection in the Schweinrich deep saline aquifer
6
W – E Cross Section
Source: BGR & TNO
7
Process chain safety assessment CCS projects
CO2STORE
Schweinrich
study
Feasibility
phase
Feasibility
examination
Investigation
phase
Planning
phase
Construction
phase
Implementation
Operation
phase
Operation and
maintenance
Project phases for a CCS project
8
Postoperation
phase
• Safety evaluation
• based on SAMCARDS methodology + tools
• assessment of shallow subsurface NOT included
• stochastics without CO2 dissolution
Vocabulary
RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK ASSESSMENT
RISK ANALYSIS
SOURCE IDENTIFICATION
RISK ESTIMATION
RISK EVALUATION
RISK TREATMENT
RISK AVOIDANCE
RISK OPTIMISATION
RISK TRANSFER
RISK RETENTION
RISK ACCEPTANCE
RISK COMMUNICATION
9
•Risk analysis – Systematic
use of information to identify
hazards and to estimate the
risk.
•Risk evaluation – process
of comparing the estimated
risk against given risk
criteria to determine the
significance of the risk.
•Risk assessment – Overall
process of risk analysis and
risk evaluation.
Evaluation of spatial entities
• 1: Reservoir
• 2: Seal
• 3: Overburden
• 4: Faults
• 5: Wells
10
Safety assessment
11
Safety assessment
12
Four scenarios
• 1: Leaking seal scenario
• 2: Leaking fault scenario
• 3: Leaking well scenario
• 4: Reference scenario (base case)
13
Procedure probabilistic modeling approach (per
scenario)
• Calibrate simplified models to fine scale model
• Generate a long list of X stochastic input variables
• Generate 10X input files (SIMED-II)
• Execute 10X input files in batch mode
• Analyse results
• Assess CO2 in Pleistocene sediments
• Evaluate / compare with risk criteria
14
Calibration to fine scale model
• Similar (upscaled) input variables
• Similar CO2 spread in time
• Similar reservoir pressures in time
15
Fine scale model Schweinrich
16
Simplified Layer cake models
Layer
[#]
top
bottom
[meters] [meters]
thickness rocktype
k_hor
k_vert
porosity
[meters]
[mD]
[mD]
[fraction]
1
0
164
164 RT5
500
0.01
2
164
260
96 RT2
500
50
3
260
490
230 RT6
1E-05
1E-05
4
490
700
210 RT5
100
0.01
5
700
802
102 RT2
500
50
6
802
896
94 RT4
250
0.001
7
896
925
29 RT2
500
50
8
925
1108
183 RT4
250
0.001
9
1108
1130
22 RT2
500
50
10
1130
1220
90 RT3
1
0.001
0.05 Lower Jurassic siltstones
11
1220
1308
88 RT6
1E-05
1E-05
0.03 Lower Jurassic claystones
12
1308
1466
158 RT1
500
5
0.15 Lower Jurassic sandstone
13
1466
1509
43 RT3
1
0.001
14
1509
1564
55 RT1
500
5
Reservoir
Interpolated thickness of top of Schweinrich anticlinal structure
17
0.08 Pleistocene mix of gravel, sand, silt, clay and till
0.25 Tertiary clean sands
0.03 Tertiary claystones
0.1 Cretaceous limestones
0.25 Cretaceous sands
0.06 Middle Jurassic siltsones
0.25 Middle Jurassic sandstones
0.06 Lower Jurassic siltstones
0.25 Lower Jurassic sandstones
0.05 Uppermost Triassic siltstones
0.15 Uppermost Triassic sandstones
Analysis of results
Leaking Fault Scenario (1000 runs)
0.40
Relative probability [fraction]
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
50 - 60
60 - 70
70 - 80
Total CO2 release in 10,000 years [%]
18
80 - 90
90 - 100
Reference scenario
19
Reference scenario
• No leakage / release from seal
• No safety hazard
20
Leaking seal scenario
21
Leaking seal scenario
• Release from reservoir into overburden
• However CO2 does not reach shallow subsurface
• No safety hazard
22
Leaking well scenario
23
Leaking well scenario
• High leakage rates / fluxes
• About 60 % released in 3000 years
BUT:
• No existing/historical wells penetrate the reservoir
• Injection wells can be constructed with latest technology
• In reality mitigation measures will be taken at early stage
Leaking Well Scenario (20 runs)
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
240
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Time [years]
7000
8000
9000
0
10000
Total CO2 Release [%]
Maximum CO2 Flux [tons/m2/year]
Leaking Well Scenario (20 runs)
300
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Time [years]
7000
8000
9000
0
10000
Leaking fault scenario
25
Leaking fault scenario
26
Leaking fault scenario
• High variability in outcome / results
• Intermediate leakage rates / fluxes
• Fluxes compare well to natural analogues (Streit & Watson, 2004)
BUT:
• No proven faults from reservoir to surface
• Sealing properties of faults unknown (too large range applied)
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
27
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Time [years]
7000
8000
9000
0
10000
Total CO2 Release [%]
Leaking Fault Scenario (20 runs)
0.6
2
Maximum CO2 Flux [tons/m /year]
Leaking Fault Scenario (20 runs)
0.6
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Time [years]
7000
8000
9000
0
10000
Safety evaluation (I)
Maximum CO2 Concentration in Pleistocene Sediments (1000 runs)
1
0.9
1
Leaking Fault Scenario
0.9
Relative probability [fraction]
Leaking Well Scenario
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
0
28
0-2
2-4
4-6
6-8
8 - 10
10 - 12 12 - 14 14 - 16 16 - 18 18 - 20 20 - 22 22 - 24 24 - 26 26 - 28 28 - 30
Maximum CO2 concentration in 10,000 years [%]
Safety evaluation (II)
Saripally et al. (2002):
29
Conclusions from safety analysis
• Adverse effect for leaking fault scenario
• Severe / lethal effects for leaking well scenario
• BUT:
• Leaking well scenario unrealistic
• Range of model input parameters too large
• Faults need further investigation
• Location
• Vertical extent
• Properties
30
Upcoming work
• Injection strategy
• Fault characterization
CO2STORE
Schweinrich
study
Feasibility
phase
Feasibility
examination
Investigation
phase
Planning
phase
Construction
phase
Implementation
Project phases for a CCS project
31
Operation
phase
Postoperation
phase
Operation and
maintenance
Acknowledgements
• EU CO2STORE project and its partners, in particular:
•
•
•
•
•
32
Vattenfall
BGR
BRGM
TNO
BGS