Daily Market Outlook
Transcription
Daily Market Outlook
Daily Market Outlook 23 Aug 2016 Rate hike anxiety, tumbling oil prices Expect the SET to trade in a tight range today, with a negative bias, as investors globally are anxious ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday after top Fed officials have taken turns coming up with hawkish comments about rate hikes in coming months. Tumbling crude prices are likely to drag the energy sector and the market with robust Chinese fuel exports, return of previous outages and a rising US oil rig count. Local factors today should have minimal impact on market sentiment. The government plans another mega transportsystem project, this time to serve the planned East Economic Corridor (EEC). It also plans to open border trade zones in special economic zones, particularly Mae Sot district, to boost investment and trades. Pick of the day: WICE (Bt3.44; NR, IFA TP Bt4.02) Wice Logistics Pcl (WICE) is our pick of the day for its bright outlook after the acquisition of a 70%-100% stake in the Singapore logistics company, Sun Express Logistic Pte Ltd (SEL). Total investment will be Bt425mn, settled through a stock swap between WICE and SEL with 51.9mn of WICE’s common shares at Bt2.8 each (Bt145.3mn), a cash payment of Bt195.8mn and the remainder a call option in cash payment between 1 Jan and 31 Aug 2020. WICE’s average net profit margin (NM) is expected to improve after the merger. Currently, WICE’s NM stands at around 8% while SEL’s NM is around 12.5% with a higher combination of air freight to sea freight. SEL’s network in the region enables WICE to expand its client base to countries with more lucrative business such as the Philippines and Vietnam. WICE’s logistic business in Thailand alone has markedly improved after the Chinese giant solar panel producer, Trina Solar Science & Technology, and rubber tire manufacture, Sentury Tire, established Thailand as their export bases. Solar panels have been mostly exported to the US and EU, while rubber tires have all been shipped to China. An independent financial advisor (IFA) expects WICE to post a CAGR of sales revenue at 17.4% in 2018-2022. The IFA has derived the fair value of the combined company, by using the sum-of-the-parts valuation, at Bt4.02 per share (WICE at Bt2.91 and SEL at Bt1.12). WICE’s pattern indicates a strong major uptrend with a buy signal occurring in all of its three key charts, namely daily, weekly and monthly. If the share manages to close above Bt3.54, a new high formation will arise with the next target at the last high of Bt3.84 before moving up to make a new high at Bt4.22. There is a stop loss at Bt3.04. (Resistance: 3.56, 3.68, 3.92; Support: 3.32, 3.20, 2.96) Local issue EEC transport projects to get underway. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak expects to propose the transport-system projects to serve the planned East Economic Corridor (EEC) to the Cabinet in October. The EEC project consists of four key transport-infrastructure (cont. on next page) Please see disclaimer on last page Major Indices Close 1,539.24 SET 982.53 SET50 22.6 SET P/E (x) 2.0 SET P/BV (x) 3.1 SET Div. Yield (%) 18,529.42 Dow Jones 2,182.64 S&P 500 5,244.60 NASDAQ 6,828.54 UK 10,494.35 Germany 4,389.94 France 16,598.19 Japan 2,042.16 South Korea 22,997.91 Hong Kong 3,084.76 China 8,981.81 Taiwan 2,841.19 Singapore 1,691.07 Malaysia 5,427.17 Indonesia 7,981.21 Philippines Trading Summary Buy 5,439 Institution 5,597 Proprietary 11,512 Foreign 23,480 Individuals Total Trading Value Most Active Value Value KTB 3,404 KBANK 1,636 WHA 1,406 BA 1,302 INTUCH 1,300 Commodity Futures Close 47.05 US Crude 49.16 Brent Crude 1343.40 Gold FX Rates Close 34.62 USD/THB 1.13 EUR/USD 100.21 USD/JPY 6.65 USD/CNY Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg Chg +0.5 +1.3 %Chg +0.0 +0.1 -23.2 -1.2 +6.2 -30.4 -50.0 -10.6 +52.4 -14.1 +60.7 -23.3 -52.5 -2.8 +3.4 +11.1 +50.5 -0.1 -0.1 +0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 +0.3 -0.7 +0.3 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.6 Sell 6,299 4,622 9,488 25,619 46,028 Net -860 975 2,024 -2,139 Btmn Close 18.60 197.00 3.58 24.80 58.50 Chg -1.5 -1.7 -2.8 %Chg -2.1 1.0 5.9 4.2 -4.9 %Chg -3.0 -3.4 -0.2 Chg -0.0 +0.0 -0.1 +0.0 %Chg -0.1 +0.1 -0.1 +0.0 Technical picks (support & resistance) AMATA (S: 12.10, R: 13.30); CPN (S: 55.50, R: 60.50); IFEC (S: 6.15, R: 6.75); SET (S: 1,528, R: 1,551) Thailand Research Department Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041 Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090 Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai (No. 17385) Tel: 02 680 5077 Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056 Mr. Napat Siworapongpun, CFA, FRM (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094 1 Daily Market Outlook 23 Aug 2016 E Bangkok-Rayong high-speed railway. Apart from that, the drafting of land development plans associated with four high-speed rail routes and the Bang Sue mass transit central terminal are also expected to be wrapped up and proposed to the Cabinet in October as well. (The Nation) Comment: This reassures us that the state is speeding up all of the projects. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid also affirmed that once the projects are approved by the Cabinet, they will be implemented swiftly. Robust fuel exports from China: China's July diesel and gasoline exports soared 182% YoY and 145% YoY, respectively, putting pressure on refined product margins. (Reuters) Comment: In the medium term, this would have a direct adverse impact on Thailand’s refinery sector as diesel and gasoline are main products from refining process. TOP (Bt68.25) would be hurt the most as it relies on refinery business more than its industry peers. To open up border trade zone in SEZ. The Treasury Department will ask the policy committee on special economic zones (SEZ) as well as Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) to green-light a plan to set aside an area in the SEZ of Mae Sot district, Tak province, as a border trade zone in an effort to boost investment and trade within areas. The Department will also discuss tax incentives, including tax waivers for goods traded in the area, with the Fiscal Policy Office. (Bangkok Post) Global issues US Treasury prices gained on Monday ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday that will be scrutinized by investors for indications of when the US central bank will next raise interest rates. Benchmark 10-year notes gained 12/32 in price on Monday to yield 1.54%, down from 1.58% late on Friday. (Reuters) The US dollar was mostly flat against a basket of major currencies on Monday on hesitation to make bets ahead of a speech from the Fed Chair on Friday, while comments from another top Fed official kept the greenback stable. The dollar index was last up 0.14% at 94.539 after falling about 1.3% last week. The euro was last down 0.04% against the dollar at US$1.1320. (Reuters) USA Wall Street shares were flat on Monday as a plunge in oil prices that weighed on the energy sector was offset with a strong showing by biotech stocks. Again, the market is waiting for the clues about rate directions from Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole on Friday. Biotech stocks received a boost from Pfizer's US$14bn acquisition of cancer drug maker Medivation. (Reuters) Europe European stocks initially slipped (STOXX) on Monday but recouped losses to rise 0.09%, getting a temporary boost in early trading after Syngenta's proposed takeover by ChemChina was approved by US regulators. (Reuters) Asia Japan's government is preparing a US$33bn (¥3.2869tn) supplementary budget to help fund PM Abe's economic stimulus package. It includes the issuance of ¥2.75tn in bonds earmarked for construction projects. Abe's cabinet is to approve the draft on Wednesday and submit it to parliament next month. The budget covers the national-government portion for this fiscal year of a multiyear stimulus package approved by the cabinet on 2 Aug. The package has a headline figure of ¥28.1tn, including ¥7.5tn in combined spending by the national and local governments. (Reuters) Please see disclaimer on last page 2 Daily Market Outlook 23 Aug 2016 Hit by bad loans, Chinese banks are expected to show a weakening in their capital strength in 1H16, raising the prospect that the government might have to inject more than US$100bn to shore them up, according to some analysts. There are early signs that government is already taking action to help some of the smaller banks, which are struggling to maintain their capital ratios as China's economy slows, interest margins fall, and bad debts climb. (Reuters) Commodities Oil settled down more than 3% on Monday, retreating from last week's twomonth highs, on worries about burgeoning Chinese fuel exports, more Iraqi and Nigerian crude shipments and a rising US oil rig count. US drillers added 10 oil rigs last week, the eighth straight week of rig additions, as crude rebounded toward the US$50-a-barrel mark that makes drilling viable. Iraq plans this week to increase exports of Kirkuk crude by 150,000 bpd from its northern fields while Nigerian rebels who regularly attacked oil facilities said they were ready for a ceasefire. Brent crude settled down US$1.72 (-3.4%) at US$49.16 a barrel. It hit a two-month high of US$51.22 on Friday. US crude futures closed down US$1.70 (-3.6%) at US$47.41 a barrel. (Reuters) Gold prices slid on Monday and hit a two-week low as upbeat comments from Federal Reserve officials on the US economy boosted expectations that the central bank could lift interest rates sooner rather than later. Spot gold was down 0.2% at US$1,338.01 per ounce. (Reuters) Please see disclaimer on last page 3 Daily Market Outlook 23 Aug 2016 Date 22-Aug-16 23-Aug-16 23-Aug-16 23-Aug-16 24-Aug-16 25-Aug-16 25-Aug-16 26-Aug-16 26-Aug-16 26-Aug-16 Regions US JP EU US US US JP US US US Economic Indicators Chicago Fed National Activity Index Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech Markit PMI Composite (Aug) Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug) Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jun) Durable Goods Orders (Jul) National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul) Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q2) Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q2) Markit PMI Composite (Aug) Aug-16 Mon 1 Tue 2 Wed 3 XD EPG KYE 8 XD SCC TPC WHABT WHART 9 15 10 16 22 XD DCC TIW 11 17 XD BKKCP BTSGIF MIPF SSTSS TIF1 TLHPF TNP UNIPF UVAN 23 XD AF AMATAR ANAN ARROW BEAUTY BROOK CHG CPF CSS FPI GLOW HPF ICHI IMPACT JUBILE KBS M MALEE MC MEGA M-II MNIT MNIT2 M-PAT M-STOR 29 Fri 5 12 XD 1DIV JASIF LHHOTEL LHPF LHSC QHHR QHPF XD LPN MACO XD ASP AUCT BAFS FSMART GCAP INTUCH KOOL PDG SAT SMPC TKN XD CCET ORI XD CPNCG CPNRF CRYSTAL DIF POPF PPF SCCC SIRIP TGROWTH XD PTTEP XD ADVANC BH BH-P SNC TBSP Thu 4 OCEAN OISHI PCSGH PHOL PRIN PYLON QLT S11 SABINA SENA SGP SNP SPG SPRC SYNEX TACC TIPCO TNITY TOG TPAC TTW TVO VNG WINNER 30 18 XD BSBM CSL GVREIT SAMTEL SPCG TREIT TU 24 XD 2S BTW FUTUREPF GC IVL LH MCS PM PT SPF TFUND TLOGIS TTCL URBNPF 19 XD KCE MAKRO MBKET OTO PPP SAMART SLP SPALI SUSCO TASCO 25 XD AIT APURE BEC BKI BLA CBG DRT HTECH KAMART KCAR KIAT LRH MAJOR PS PTG SEAFCO SIRI TPCORP TWPC UEC 26 XD AH AMATA AYUD BCH BJC CPTGF DTCPF EPCO FORTH SMIT SUTHA TCIF THE THIF THREL TRIF TTLPF 31 XD GPSC LALIN SYNTEC TKS Please see disclaimer on last page 4 CG Rating Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015. ADVANC HANA MONO SAMTEL TOP BAFS HMPRO NKI SAT VGI BCP INTUCH PHOL SC WACOAL BIGC IRPC PPS SCB BTS IVL PS SCC CK KBANK PSL SE-ED CPN KCE PTT SIM DRT KKP PTTEP SNC DTAC KTB PTTGC SPALI DTC LHBANK QTC THCOM EASTW LPN RATCH TISCO EGCO MCOT ROBINS TKT GRAMMY MINT SAMART TMB AAV BWG DEMCO ICHI MFEC PG SABINA SPI TCAP TKS TSC VNT ACAP CENTEL ECF INET NBC PJW SAMCO SSF TF TMI TSTE WAVE AGE CFRESH EE IRC NCH PM SCG SSI TGCI TMILL TSTH WINNER AHC CHO ERW KSL NINE PPP SEAFCO SSSC THAI TMT TTA YUASA AKP CIMBT GBX KTC NSI PR SFP SST THANA TNDT TTCL ZMICO AMATA CM GC LANNA NTV PRANDA SIAM STA THANI TNITY TTW ANAN CNT GFPT LH OCC PREB SINGER STEC THIP TNL TU AOT COL GLOBAL LOXLEY OGC PT SIS SVI THRE TOG TVD APCS CPF GUNKUL LRH OISHI PTG SITHAI SWC THREL TPC TVO ARIP CPI HEMRAJ MACO OTO Q-CON SMK SYMC TICON TPCORP TWPC BMCL CSL HOTPOT MBK PAP QH SMPC SYNTEC TIP TRC UAC BOL DCC HYDRO MC PDI RS SMT TASCO TIPCO TRU UT BROOK DELTA ICC MEGA PE S&J SNP TBSP TK TRUE UV 2S AQUA BKD CSP FPI IEC KKC MATCH MTLS PF RCL SKR SUC TIW UPOIC AEC AS BTNC CSS FSMART IFEC KTIS MATI NC PICO RICHY SMG SUSCO TLUXE UREKA AEONTS ASIA CBG CTW FSS IFS KWC MBKET NOK PL RML SOLAR SUTHA TMC UWC AF AUCT CGD DNA FVC IHL KYE M-CHAI NUSA PLANB RPC SORKON SYNEX TMD VIBHA AH AYUD CHG EARTH GCAP IRCP L&E MFC NWR PLAT S SPA TAE TOPP VIH AIRA BA CHOW EASON GENCO ITD LALIN MILL NYT PPM SALEE SPC TAKUNI TPCH VPO AIT BEAUTY CI ECL GL JSP LHK MJD OCEAN PRG SAPPE SPCG TCC TPIPL WHA AJ BEC CITY EFORL GLAND JTS LIT MK PACE PRIN SAWAD SPPT TCCC TRT WIN AKR BFIT CKP ESSO GLOW JUBILE LIVE MODERN PATO PSTC SCCC SPVI TCJ TSE XO AMANAH BH CNS FE GOLD KASET LST MOONG PB PTL SCN SRICHA TEAM TSR AMARIN BIG CPALL FIRE GYT KBS M MPG PCA PYLON SCP SSC TFD UMI AP BJC CPL FOCUS HTC KCAR MAJOR MSC PCSGH QLT SEAOIL STANLY TFI UP APCO BJCHI CSC FORTH HTECH KGI MAKRO MTI PDG RCI SIRI STPI TIC UPF VNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD) Score Range Number of Logo Corporate Governance Report disclaimer Description 90 – 100 Excellent 80 – 89 Very Good 70 – 79 Good 60 – 69 Satisfactory 50 – 59 Pass Below 50 No logo given Please see disclaimer on last page N/A The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. 5 CG Rating ข้ อมูล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบริษัทจดทะเบียน ระดับ 1 ACD BLISS CTW GRAND MAJOR PICO SAUCE SPPT TKS TWP WG AEONTS BMCL DCON GUNKUL MATCH PK SAWAD SPVI TNH TWZ AFC BOL DRACO HFT MAX PL SAWANG STA TNPC U AIRA BRR DSGT HTECH M-CHAI PPM SCN STAR TPA UMS AJ BSBM ALUCON CBG DTCI IHL ILINK MDX MIDA PRAKIT PRECHA SEAFCO SF SVH SVOA TPAC TPOLY UPA UPOIC AMC CCET E ITD ML PRIN SHANG SWC TRC UTP AQUA CCN EMC JSP MPIC PSTC SIRI TAPAC TRUBB UVAN ARIP CGD ESSO KDH NC PYLON SMART TC TSE VARO AUCT CMR FOCUS KTIS NEP RAM SMM TCCC TTA VI BAT-3K CPH FSMART KTP NNCL RICH SOLAR TCJ TTI VIBHA BIG CSC GIFT LEE NWR RS SPACK TCOAT TTL VIH BJC CSP GLAND LST OHTL SANKO SPG TH TTTM VTE ABICO BTNC IEC MBK PRINC TAKUNI TSI AF CCP IFS MBKET QH TEAM TTW AKP CI INET MEGA ROCK TF TVD AMARIN CSR JUTHA MK RPC TIC TVO AMATA CSS KASET MPG S&J TIP UKEM AOT EFORL KCAR MTLS SGP TIPCO UNIQ APCO EPCO KKC NCH SIAM TMC UWC AYUD FE KSL NCL SIS TMI VNG BEAUTY FNS L&E NPP SKR TPP WIIK BFIT FVC LALIN OCC SMG TRT WIN BH GEL LTX OCEAN SMIT TRU XO BKD GLOBAL M PB SORKON TRUE ACAP ASIAN CNT EE INSURE MCOT OGC RATCH SMK SYNTEC TMT ADVANC ASIMAR COL EVER IRC MFC PACE RML SMPC TASCO TSTE AEC BIGC CPALL FPI JAS MFEC PCSGH ROBINS SPALI TCMC TSTH AGE BROOK CPF GBX JTS MINT PDI ROJNA SPC TFI TTCL AH BTS CPI GC JUBILE MJD PG RWI SPCG THAI TU AIE BWG CPL GFPT KC MONO PHOL SAMCO SPI THRE TVI AMANAH CEN DELTA GLOW KTC MOONG PLAT SCCC SRICHA THREL UOBKH ANAN CENTEL DEMCO HMPRO KYE NBC PPS SCG SSI TICON UREKA AP CFRESH DIMET HOTPOT LHK NDR PR SEAOIL STANLY TKT VGI APCS CHARAN DNA ICC LPN NINE PRANDA SE-ED SUPER TLUXE VNT APURE CHO DTAC ICHI LRH NMG PREB SENA SVI TNL WACOAL AS CHOTI EA IFEC MAKRO NSI PS SINGER SYMC TPCORP WHA AHC CHG FIRE KWC OISHI QTC SMT TFD TSR WINNER AI CHOW FMT LH OTO RCI SPA TGCI TT YUASA AIT CIG FORTH LIT PAF S11 SPORT TGPRO TYCN AKR CITY GENCO LOXLEY PAP SALEE SSC THANA UAC ARROW CK GL MACO PATO SAM SST THIP UBIS ASK CKP GOLD MANRIN PF SAMART STEC TIW UEC BA COLOR GPSC MATI PJW SAMTEL STPI TK UMI BDMS CWT GRAMMY MODERN PLANB SAPPE SUC TMW UP BEC EARTH HYDRO MSC PLE SC SUTHA TNDT UPF BECL EASON IRCP NOBLE POLAR SCP T TOPP UT BJCHI EPG IT NOK PRG SFP TAE TPC UV BUI F&D JCT NPK PTL SIM TBSP TPCH VPO BAFS ECL KKP SSF BANPU EGCO KTB SSSC BAY ERW LANNA TCAP BBL FSS LHBANK THCOM BKI GCAP MTI TISCO BLA HANA NKI TIMB CIMBT HTC PSL TMD CNS INTUCH PTG TNITY CSL IRPC PTTEP TOG DCC IVL SABINA DRT KBANK SCB DTC KCE SNC CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP AQ KAMART PMTA BCH KBS POST BGT KIAT RCL BROCK LDC RICHY BSM MBAX ROH BTC MCS S CHUO METCO SIMAT CPR NEW TCB CRANE NEWS TR EIC NYT TSF ระดับ 2 2S BLAND HEMRAJ MALEE PCA SUSCO TSC ระดับ 3A ABC ASIA CM ECF INOX MC NTV QLT SITHAI SYNEX TMILL ZMICO ระดับ 3B AAV CGH FANCY KCM NUSA Q-CON SLP TCC TPIPL WAVE ระดับ 4 ASP EASTW KGI SNP ระดับ 5 BCP ไม่เปิ ดเผยหรือไม่มีนโยบาย A FER PAE TVT ACC JMART PDG WORK AJD JMT PERM หมายเหตุ ระดับ 1 : มีนโยบาย ระดับ 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณ์ ระดับ 3 : มีมาตรการป้องกัน ซึ่งทัง้ 2 กรณี ถือเป็ นผลการประเมินในระดับเดียวกัน 3A : บริษทั มีการประกาศเจตนารมณ์เข้าร่วมโครงการ CAC หรือภาค 3B : บริษทั มีคามัน่ และนโยบายของบริษทั แต่มไิ ด้ประกาศเจตนารมณ์เข้าร่วมโครงการ CAC หรือภาค ระดับ 4 : ได้รบั การรับรอง ระดับ 5 : ขยายผลสูผ่ ทู้ เ่ี กีย่ วข้อง Please see disclaimer on last page 6 Contact Branch Head Office Address 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini, Phone Fax 02-680-5000 02-680-5111 02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1 02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328 02-884-7333 02-884-7357, Pathumwan Bangkok 10330 Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd., Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. 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