SpareBank 1 SMN og Sparebanken Vest

11 Mars 2015
SpareBank 1 SMN og
Sparebanken Vest
sett fra et EKB-perspektiv
Please refer to important disclosures on the last 6 pages of this document
Vegard Eid Mediås
Direct: +47 22 87 88 24
Email: [email protected]
(A)urskog sparebank, etablert i 1846
Source: Aurskog sparebank, private photos, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
2
De har gjort om app’en til en bank!
Økt økonomisk usikkerhet
3M NIBOR (%)
2.00
1.90
1.80
1.70
1.60
1.50
Rentenivå
1.40
1.30
okt'12
mar'13
aug'13
jan'14
Basels tårn
jun'14
nov'14
Source: SpareBank 1; Pieter Bruegel de Oude, De Toren van Babel, ca. 1565; Oslo Børs, private photos.
3
De har gjort om app’en til en bank!
Økt økonomisk usikkerhet
Basels tårn
Source: SpareBank 1; Pieter Bruegel de Oude, De Toren van Babel, ca. 1565; Oslo Børs, private photos.
4
Enorm endring i bruken av bank-filialer
4% bruker bankfilialen hver 14. dag eller oftere
Bruk av bankfilialer for befolkningen over 15år
2014
 Kun 6% av bankkunder bruker nå kun
bank-filialen, mot 24% for 10 år siden.
2013
2012
 Hos SPV signeres nå 8 av 10 lån
elektronisk.
2011
2010
2008
 Fordrer og muliggjør endringer i
distribusjon.
2006
2004
 Med størst effekt for sparebankene!
2002
0%
20 %
40 %
Hver 14. dag eller oftere
Hvert halvår eller sjeldnere
60 %
80 %
Hver måned
Aldri
Source: TNS Gallup / Finans Norge – Dagligbankundersøkelsen 2014, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
100 %
 Rådgivere blir viktigere i sin rolle som
akkurat det.
5
Begge bankene har startet bearbeidingen av egen distribusjon
SMN – fra 56 til 49 kontorer
Branches (#)
56
60
56
54
54
SPV – fra 59 til 48 kontorer
Cost/Income (%)
60
51
50
49
Branches (#)
70
50
60
40
40
50
30
30
20
20
10
10
50
0
0
2008
2009
Branches
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Cost/Income - Parent Bank
 Begge bankene har tatt nødvendige
gjennomganger av kontor-nettet over de siste
årene. Resultatet har blitt færre kontorer, og også
endrete åpningstider og funksjoner på de
gjenværende kontorene.
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
59
68
63
63
Cost/Income (%)
70
64
60
54
48
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
2008
2009
2010
Branches
2011
2012
2013
2014
Cost/Income - Parent Bank
 SPV har lagt ned flest kontorer, noe som er
naturlig etter sammenslåinger.
 Det samme har vi sett for DNB, som har redusert
antall kontorer med 25% over de siste 2 årene. K/I
for PM har blitt redusert til 47% fra 54% i 2012.
6
IT-kostnadene øker – men investeringene virker svært lønnsomme
IT-kostnader ift inntjening
IT expenses' share of total income (%)
10
 IT investeringer og andre kostnader
øker naturligvis, men økningen virker
begrenset ift muligheten og ser fra
utsiden ut som svært gode
investeringer.
9
8
7
 IT-kostnadene i DNB har økte mer enn
for sparebankene over de siste årene,
pga. integrering og bytte av
kjernesystemer.
6
5
4
3
2010
2011
2012
MING
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
SVEG
Source: TNS Gallup / Finans Norge – Dagligbankundersøkelsen 2014, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
2017e
 IT-kostnadene for SMN virker å ligge
på et lavere nivå enn for SPV. Det er
naturlig å tenke at dette kan knyttes til
SpareBank 1 Alliansen, der ITkostnadene kan fordeles på flere og
dermed skape stordriftsfordeler, og de
felleseide selskapene som bidrar til
inntjeningen.
7
De har gjort om app’en til en bank!
Økt økonomisk usikkerhet
Basels tårn
Source: SpareBank 1; Pieter Bruegel de Oude, De Toren van Babel, ca. 1565; Oslo Børs, private photos.
8
Lave lånetap har styrket avkastningen på egenkapitalen
SMN har hatt høy lønnsomhet, delvis pga tap ..
… mens SPV sine tap har redusert avkastningen
Return on Equity (%)
Return on Equity (%)
19
19
17
17
15
15
13
13
11
11
9
9
7
7
5
5
2008
2009
2010
RoE - No loan losses
2011
2012
2013
RoE - Actual
2014
 På tross av sterk kapitalakkumulering har bankene
klart å styrke kapitalavkastningen over de siste
årene.
 Men lønnsomheten har delvis blitt løftet av
endringer av pensjon og andre engangseffekter
som salget av Nets.
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
2008
2009
2010
RoE - No loan losses
2011
2012
2013
RoE - Actual
2014
 Videre har lånetapene siden finanskrisen vært
lave, spesielt over de siste årene.
 Faktisk kan mye av forskjellen i kapitalavkastning
over de siste tre årene mellom SMN og SPV
forklares med lånetap.
9
Høy lønnsomhet og lave tap i personmarkedet
Historiske tap på personkunder – SMN og SPV
Retail loan losses (bps)
10
 Til tross for en signifikant posisjon i de
respektive lokale næringsliv, er kreditteksponeringen til bankene størst mot
privatkunder.
8
6
4
 Dette er fordelaktig regionbankene
kontra DNB, ettersom lønnsomheten
på privatområdet er såpass mye
høyere.
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SVEG - Retail loan losses
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
MING - Retail loan losses
 SPV har 76% av lånene til privatkunder
og SMN har 62%. Det er således en
fordel for SPV kontra SMN, etter vårt
syn, og bør mer enn kompensere for
historisk sett litt høyere tap på
privatkunder.
10
SPV eksponert mot shipping, SMN mot oljeservice i bedriftsmarkedet
SMN – Mer eksponert mot oljeservice
SPV – mer eksponert mot shipping
LGD (%)
LGD (%)
50
50
45
7
12
5
45
4
4
2
2
40
40
35
2
15
35
8
PD (%)
30
PD (%)
30
0
Eiendom
1
Jordbruk og fiske
2
Oljeservice
3
Bygg og anlegg
4
5
Forretningsmessig tjenesteyting
 38% av utlånsboka til SMN består av lån til
bedriftsmarkedet. Tradisjonelle næringer som
eiendomsdrift og jordbruk/fiske er bankens største
eksponeringer.
 SMN er også relativt godt eksponert mot
oljeservice – kanskje mer enn det som vanligvis er
persepsjonen.
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
0
Eiendom
1
Shipping
2
Varehandel
3
Bygg og anlegg
4
5
Fiskeindustri
 SPV har en vesentlig mindre andel lån til
bedriftsmarkedet, totalt 24% av bankens totale
utlånsportefølje.
 Eiendom er også SPVs største eksponering på
bedriftssiden. I tillegg er SPV blant de mest
eksponerte mot shipping.
11
Fremover forventer vi en normalisering av lånetapene
SMN – lånetapene kommer trolig opp
SPV – lånetapene skal noe ned fra de siste årene
Loan losses (bps)
40
Loan losses (bps)
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
2010
2011
2012
Historical
2013
2014
2015e 2016e
Estimated
2017e
 Vi forventer at tapene øker fremover, men dette
vil være svært avhengig av det økonomiske
klimaet.
 2015 kan fortsatt være et år med lave tap, og våre
estimater for 2015 avhenger av hvilke gruppevise
avsetninger som tas.
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
2010
2011
2012
Historical
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
Estimated
 For SPV forventer vi et redusert lånetapsnivå.
 2015/16 kan bli lavere, spesielt med tanke på
mulige reverseringer. På lang sikt bør SPV også ha
potensiale for lavere lånetap enn SMN, gitt vekten
på boliglån. I følge banken selv kan lånetapene
falle ned mot 10bps.
12
De har gjort om app’en til en bank!
Økt økonomisk usikkerhet
Basels tårn
Source: SpareBank 1; Pieter Bruegel de Oude, De Toren van Babel, ca. 1565; Oslo Børs, private photos.
13
Konkurranse og lavere renter kan press marginene
DNB – Utlånsmarginer
DNB – Innskuddsmarginer
Interest rates (%)
Deposit rates (%)
4.0
5
3.5
3.0
4
2.5
2.0
3
1.5
2
1.0
1
Jun-11
Dec-11 Jun-12
Lending margin
Policy rate
0.5
Dec-12 Jun-13
Retail pricing**
Dec-13
Credit spread*
Jun-14
NIBOR
Dec-14
0.0
Jun-11
Deposit margin
New lending rate
SMN – Netto rentemargin
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
3M NIBOR
Jun-13
Dec-13
Deposit rate
Jun-14
Dec-14
New deposit rate
SPV – Netto rentemargin
NIM (%)
NIM (%)
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
1.0
2012
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
14
De har gjort om app’en til en bank!
Økt økonomisk usikkerhet
Basels tårn
Source: SpareBank 1; Pieter Bruegel de Oude, De Toren van Babel, ca. 1565; Oslo Børs, private photos.
15
Basel III: Økende krav vil trolig redusere kapitalavkastningen
SMN – Økende kjernekapital (CET1)
SPV – Økende kjernekapital (CET1)
CET1 (%)
CET1 (%)
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
2010
2011
2012
Reported CET1
2013
2014
Est. CET1
2015e
2016e
2010
2017e
CET1 target (13.5%)
2011
2012
Reported CET1
2013
2014
Est. CET1
2015e
2016e
2017e
CET1 target (13.5%)
SMN – Egenkapitalavkastning (ROE)
SPV – Egenkapitalavkastning (ROE)
ROE (%)
15
ROE (%)
15
10
10
5
5
2010
2011
2012
Reported ROE
2013
2014*
2015e
2016e
Adj. ROE (13.5% CET1)
*2014 numbers adjusted for Nets.
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
2017e
2010
2011
2012
Reported ROE
2013
2014*
2015e
2016e
2017e
Adj. ROE (13.5% CET1)
16
Framtida er normal
Forventet utvikling i lønnsomhet for SMN
Forventet utvikling i lønnsomhet for SPV
ROE (%)
ROE (%)
15
15
13
13
11
11
9
9
7
7
5
5
2010
2011
2012
Min. norm loan losses
2013
2014*
2015e
13.5% CET1
2016e
2017e
Adj. ROE
2010
2011
2012
Min. norm loan losses
2013
2014* 2015e
13.5% CET1
2016e 2017e
Adj. ROE
 Fremover ser vi for oss at det blir vanskelig for
bankene og opprettholde lønnsomheten over de
siste par årene.
 Selv justert for dette forventer vi lavere egenkapitalavkastning, pga høyere kapital, høyere lånetap i de neste årene og et lavere rentenivå.
 For det første har vi hatt ekstraordinære inntekter,
bl.a. knyttet til pensjon og salgs av Nets.
 Likevel tror vi bankene vil levere en avkastning like
over 11%, i tråd med SPVs målsetning, men like
under SMNs.
*2014 numbers adjusted for Nets.
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
17
Økende inntjening med vekst, men trolig litt ned i 2015
MING – Inntjening og utbytter per EKB
EPEC/DPEC (NOK)
10
SVEG – Inntjening og utbytter per EKB
EPEC/DPEC (NOK)
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
2009
2010
2011
EPEC
2012
2013
2014 2015e 2016e 2017e
DPEC
 Det vil bli vanskelig for bankene å opprettholde
inntjeningen per EKB i 2015, men vi tror at
utbyttene vil holde seg på det samme nivå som i
2014.
 I 2017 vil bankene være godt nok kapitalisert (i alle
fall etter dagens mål), og utbetalingen vil trolig øke
betraktelig.
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
2009
2010
2011 2012
EPEC
2013
2014
2015e 2016e 2017e
DPEC
 For MING vil tilsi et utbytte per EKB på 4.5-5.0kr,
noe som på dagens kurs tilsier en direkteavkastning på rundt 8%.
 SVEG betaler allerede et utbytte på over 50% av
inntjeningen, men 50% er ikke noen grense for
verken SVEG eller MING.
18
Utbytter må justeres for utvanning
SVEG – utbytte justert for utvanning
Norske Banker – utbyttter justert for utvanning
Dividend Yield (%)
8%
SPOG
8%
SVEG
7%
6%
MORG
5%
NONG
4%
MING
3%
3%
SADG
2%
SRBANK
1%
Dividend Yield (%)
0
0%
D.Y. 2014
Change EC share
Adj. DY
 Og selv om svingfaktoren for SVEG ikke er på
direkteavkastningen, vil et høyere kapitalnivå tilsi
mindre utvanning og dermed liknende verdieffekt.
2
4
Dividend Yield - No dilution
6
8
Dilution effect
10
 Justerer vi for dette er direkteavkastningen fra
SVEG m.fl. mindre, noe vi må ta hensyn til i
verdsettelsen.
 SPV setter av ulikt til samfunnskapitalen og EKBbevis eierne, og dette utvanner EKB-eierne
kontinuerlig.
NB! Her kalkulert med 0.9x BPEC’14. Siden SVEG nå handler på 0.95x BPEC’14 er effekt noe større.
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
19
Attraktiv oppside i begge EKB – vi anbefaler å kjøpe
Attraktive verdsettelse av sparebanker
P/B'15e (x)
2.1
Handelsbanken
SWED
1.9
1.7
SEB
Nordea
1.5
 Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling for MING
med et kursmål på NOK 69 og ser
dermed 14% oppside.
1.3
Danske Bank
1.1
DNB
SPOG
MORG
0.9
MING
SRBANK
0.7
 Det er en attraktive verdsettelse av EKbevisene generelt og også spesifikt for
MING og SVEG.
SVEG
NONG
ROE'15e (%)
 Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling for SVEG,
med et kursmål på NOK 65 og ser 17%
oppside der.
0.5
9
10
11
12
Source: Factset, company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research.
13
14
20
APPENDIX
21
Valuation table – Nordic Banks
Nordic Large Cap Banks
Ticker
DNB
DNB NO
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank
SRBANK NO
Nordea
NDA SS
SEB
SEB.A SS
Handelsbanken
SHB.A SS
Swedbank
SWED. A SS
Danske Bank
DANSKE DC
Jyske Bank
JYSKE DC
Sydbank
SYD DC
Average
Market cap-weighted average
Cur.
NOK
NOK
SEK
SEK
SEK
SEK
DKK
DKK
DKK
Sh. price
Rec.
126.5 Buy
56.3 Buy
110.0
105.7
407.2
217.9
174.9
291.7
208.0
-
TP
130
73
-
Market
cap. (EURm)
23,754
1,659
48,639
25,043
27,738
26,931
23,671
3,720
2,072
Savings Banks
Ticker
SpareBank 1 SMN
MING NO
Sparebanken Møre
MORG NO
SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge NONG NO
Sandnes Sparebank
SADG NO
Sparebanken Øst
SPOG NO
Sparebanken Vest
SVEG NO
Average
Market cap-weighted average
Cur.
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
EC price
TP
70
275
50
150
60
65
Market
cap. (EURm)
906
279
477
83
139
203
Savings banks not under coverage
Ticker
Aurskog Sparebank
AURG NO
Høland og Setskog Sparebank
HSPG NO
Helgeland Sparebank
HELG NO
Indre Sogn Sparebank
ISSG NO
Klepp Sparebank
KLEG NO
Melhus Sparebank
MELG NO
Skue Sparebank
SKUE NO
SpareBank 1 Østfold Akershus
SOAG NO
SpareBank 1 BV
SBVG NO
SpareBank Nøtterøy-Tønsberg
NTSG NO
SpareBank 1 Ringerike Hadeland
RING NO
Sparebanken Sør
SOR NO
Totens Sparebank
TOTG NO
Average
Market cap-weighted average
Cur.
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
EC price
Rec.
176.0
140.0
59.5
73.0
101.0
121.5
76.8
133.5
56.0
110.0
171.0
200.0
88.3
-
TP
-
Other traded banks
Pareto Bank
Bank Norwegian
Komplett Bank
Ya Holding
Cur.
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
Sh. price
Rec.
1,400 Buy
25.0
3.3
29.0
-
TP
1,750
-
Ticker
PARB
BANK
ALFAB
YAHO
Source: Pareto Securities Equity Research
60.5
245.0
41.2
101.5
58.0
55.5
Rec.
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Market
cap. (EURm)
31
11
128
5
13
21
17
143
36
14
275
110
62
Market
cap. (EURm)
137
498
33
0
2015e
10.5
8.0
13.1
13.5
16.5
14.1
11.7
12.3
12.3
12.4
13.2
P/E adj. (x)
2016e 2017e
10.4
9.5
7.6
7.1
12.4
12.0
12.6
11.9
15.6
14.8
13.2
12.5
10.5
9.7
9.2
8.0
10.2
8.9
11.3
10.5
12.4
11.7
2015e
1.20
0.86
1.58
1.66
2.03
2.00
1.13
0.93
1.28
1.41
1.59
P/B (x)
2016e
1.12
0.79
1.53
1.58
1.95
1.92
1.07
0.86
1.21
1.34
1.52
2017e
1.05
0.74
1.59
1.50
1.87
1.83
1.02
0.77
1.18
1.28
1.48
Dividend yield (%)
2015e 2016e 2017e
3.6
4.7
7.1
4.4
4.9
5.3
5.8
6.3
6.1
4.9
5.3
5.5
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.4
5.8
6.1
4.2
5.3
5.6
0.0
0.0
4.0
5.0
5.6
4.1
4.7
5.8
4.8
5.3
5.7
ROE adj. (%)
Total return (%)
2015e 2016e 2017e 1M 6M 12M
11.8
11.2
11.5 6.0 11.0 17.5
11.2
10.9
10.7 7.1 -10.4 -6.3
12.1
12.5
13.0 3.1 23.2 24.6
12.6
12.8
13.0 6.1 17.9 22.6
12.4
12.8
12.9 7.4 24.1 26.3
14.4
14.8
15.0 7.8 26.3 26.7
9.9
10.5
10.8 4.7 7.6 19.5
7.8
9.7
10.2 -2.6 -7.2 -8.8
10.7
12.3
13.4 11.8 19.0 43.4
11.4
11.9
12.3 5.7 12.4 18.4
12.1
12.4
12.7 5.5 18.5 22.6
2015e
8.1
9.3
7.9
8.1
10.3
8.1
8.6
8.4
P/E adj. (x)
2016e 2017e
7.5
7.1
8.9
8.5
7.5
7.1
7.0
7.2
10.2
10.4
7.9
7.8
8.2
8.0
7.9
7.6
2015e
0.90
0.96
0.87
0.56
1.05
0.90
0.87
0.90
P/B (x)
2016e
0.83
0.91
0.82
0.53
1.03
0.85
0.83
0.84
2017e
0.76
0.86
0.77
0.50
1.01
0.81
0.79
0.79
Dividend yield (%)
2015e 2016e 2017e
3.7
3.7
3.7
5.5
5.7
5.7
5.5
6.1
7.3
3.4
3.9
4.4
7.8
7.8
7.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
5.4
5.7
5.9
4.9
5.1
5.4
ROE adj. (%)
2015e 2016e 2017e
11.6
11.6
11.3
10.7
10.7
10.6
11.6
11.3
11.4
7.1
7.8
7.1
10.7
10.5
10.2
11.8
11.3
10.9
10.6
10.5
10.2
11.3
11.2
10.9
2015e
10.9
11.9
7.5
7.8
7.8
8.8
7.1
6.8
7.7
7.6
10.6
9.9
7.7
8.6
9.1
P/E adj. (x)
2016e 2017e
-
2015e
0.99
1.22
0.66
0.51
0.67
0.88
0.51
0.68
0.78
0.63
0.94
0.91
0.73
0.78
0.83
P/B (x)
2016e
-
2017e
-
Dividend yield (%)
2015e 2016e 2017e
8.0
7.8
5.5
4.9
5.0
9.1
5.0
3.7
6.1
4.6
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.6
-
ROE adj. (%)
Total return (%)
2015e 2016e 2017e 1M 6M 12M
9.2
1.1 12.7 23.0
10.2
20.4 67.2 58.4
9.1
1.7 6.3 24.3
6.7
8.9 21.0 37.4
8.7
0.0 8.0 28.7
10.3
5.2 11.5 12.0
7.3
4.9 9.5 15.4
10.4
7.7 23.0 41.0
10.3
5.7 15.5 25.0
8.5
11.7 25.3 32.2
9.0
1.8 21.3 37.1
9.2
-0.5 8.7 44.8
9.9
10.3 25.6 47.6
9.1
6.1 19.7 32.8
9.7
4.5 19.6 35.8
2015e
7.4
8.2
7.2
P/E adj. (x)
2016e 2017e
7.1
6.7
7.0
6.3
8.5
4.7
5.8
5.4
2015e
1.00
2.61
1.44
1.66
P/B (x)
2016e
0.91
2.07
1.23
1.43
2017e
0.83
1.73
0.98
1.26
Dividend yield (%)
2015e 2016e 2017e
3.6
4.3
5.0
18.5
15.6
14.0
5.2
6.0
6.9
ROE adj. (%)
Total return (%)
2015e 2016e 2017e 1M 6M 12M
14.3
13.4
12.9 3.7
37.7
33.5
30.5 -7.4
15.7
23.3 25.4
27.2
25.3 20.8 48.0 78.6
Total return (%)
1M 6M 12M
6.1 4.8
8.3
7.0 17.8 26.5
6.7 8.7 14.6
-2.4 5.2 10.6
3.6 16.0 35.6
3.7 6.2 17.0
4.1 9.8 18.8
5.6 8.3 14.9
22
Earnings estimates – MING
SpareBank 1 SMN (MING)
P&L
Net interest income
Net fee and commission income
Net gains on items at fair value
Income from associates
Other income
Non-interest income
Operating income
Personnel expenses
Other expenses
Operating expenses
Profit before loan losses
Net loan losses
Profit before tax
Tax expense
Net profit
Minority interest
Net profit attributable
Net interest income adj.
Net fee and commission income adj.
Exceptional items
Non-recurring items
Adjusted net profit
NOKm
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14
Q1'15e
Q2'15e
Q3'15e
Q4'15e
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
412
293
175
82
93
643
1,055
-254
-188
-442
613
-17
596
-99
497
2
499
430
298
70
131
95
594
1,024
-245
-197
-442
582
-15
567
-103
464
-4
460
463
285
-1
168
74
526
989
-235
-190
-425
564
-24
540
-101
439
-1
438
485
289
-52
145
81
463
948
-267
-212
-479
469
-34
435
-60
375
-2
373
457
280
25
100
89
494
951
-268
-190
-458
493
-54
440
-89
350
-1
349
454
297
29
107
101
534
988
-252
-199
-451
537
-55
482
-97
385
-1
384
463
305
25
102
81
514
977
-233
-192
-425
552
-56
496
-104
392
-1
391
467
312
25
103
78
518
985
-250
-214
-464
521
-56
464
-95
369
-1
368
1,790
1,165
192
526
343
2,226
4,016
-1,001
-787
-1,788
2,228
-90
2,138
-363
1,775
-5
1,770
1,841
1,195
104
412
349
2,060
3,901
-1,004
-795
-1,798
2,102
-221
1,882
-385
1,497
-4
1,493
1,890
1,246
116
456
371
2,189
4,079
-999
-811
-1,810
2,269
-229
2,040
-416
1,624
-4
1,620
1,974
1,297
124
480
381
2,282
4,256
-1,030
-827
-1,857
2,399
-238
2,161
-442
1,719
-4
1,715
"
"
535
170
540
188
559
189
583
191
562
176
560
191
572
197
577
202
2,217
738
2,271
765
2,345
791
2,457
814
NOKm
"
"
157
385
0
460
0
438
-30
395
0
349
0
384
0
391
0
368
127
1,677
0
1,493
0
1,620
0
1,715
129.8
129.8
64.6
2.48
1.91
129.8
129.8
64.6
2.29
2.29
129.8
129.8
64.6
2.18
2.18
129.8
129.8
64.6
1.86
1.97
129.8
129.8
64.6
1.74
1.74
129.8
129.8
64.6
1.91
1.91
129.8
129.8
64.6
1.95
1.95
129.8
129.8
64.6
1.83
1.83
56.4
53.8
58.3
55.7
60.5
57.9
62.0
59.4
61.5
58.9
63.4
60.8
65.3
62.7
67.2
64.6
129.8
129.8
64.6
8.81
8.35
2.25
62.0
59.4
129.8
129.8
64.6
7.43
7.43
2.25
67.2
64.6
129.8
129.8
64.8
8.09
8.09
2.25
73.2
70.5
129.8
129.8
64.8
8.56
8.56
2.25
79.5
76.9
1.47
1.64
4.4
8.8
-2.1
41.9
49.2
61.1
6
18.0
13.9
11.1
1.50
1.66
5.1
8.2
0.4
43.2
43.2
46.3
5
16.0
16.0
11.4
1.56
1.68
5.4
7.6
2.0
43.0
43.0
42.9
8
14.6
14.6
11.5
1.58
1.72
7.3
8.0
6.1
50.5
47.4
44.9
11
12.0
12.7
11.2
1.48
1.67
8.8
7.9
10.2
48.2
48.2
49.5
18
11.4
11.4
11.4
1.45
1.63
7.0
6.8
7.3
45.7
45.7
47.0
18
12.3
12.3
11.5
1.46
1.63
6.5
6.5
6.5
43.5
43.5
44.7
18
12.0
12.0
11.7
1.46
1.63
4.0
5.7
1.2
47.1
47.1
48.4
18
11.0
11.0
11.8
1.53
1.68
7.3
8.0
6.1
44.5
45.6
47.9
8
15.0
14.3
11.2
1.46
1.64
4.0
5.7
1.2
46.1
46.1
47.4
18
11.6
11.6
11.8
1.46
1.63
3.8
5.3
1.2
44.4
44.4
45.7
18
11.6
11.6
12.5
1.49
1.65
3.8
5.3
1.2
43.6
43.6
44.9
18
11.3
11.3
13.3
Per Equity Certificate data
Average number of equity certificates
Number of equity certificates
EC share of total equity (e.o.p.)
EPEC
EPEC adj.
DPEC
BPEC
TBPEC
m
"
"
%
NOK
"
"
"
"
Key ratios
Net interest margin excl. Boligkreditt
Net interest margin adj. incl. Boligkreditt
Gross lending growth incl. Boligkreditt y/y
Gross retail lending growth incl. Boligkreditt y/y
Gross corporate lending growth incl. Boligkreditt y/y
Cost/Income
Cost/Income adj.
Cost/Income adj. less MTM items
Net loan losses incl. Boligkreditt
ROE
ROE adj.
Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1)
%
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
bps
%
"
%
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research
23
Earnings estimates – SVEG
Sparebanken Vest (SVEG)
P&L
Net interest income
Net fee and commission income
Net gains on items at fair value
Income from associates
Other income
Non-interest income
Operating income
Personnel expenses
Administrative expenses
Other expenses
Operating expenses
Profit before loan losses
Net loan losses
Profit before tax
Tax expense
Net profit
Minority interest
Net profit attributable
NOKm
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14
Q1'15e
Q2'15e
Q3'15e
Q4'15e
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
566
93
221
18
39
371
937
-193
-87
-84
-364
573
-47
526
-114
412
0
412
575
95
163
30
58
346
921
-193
-92
-80
-365
556
-123
433
-73
360
0
360
576
103
29
14
46
192
768
-197
-84
-94
-375
393
-215
178
-40
138
0
138
603
109
-22
12
45
144
747
-186
-99
-81
-366
381
-25
356
-78
278
0
278
588
97
30
20
41
188
776
-197
-89
-79
-365
410
-53
357
-96
261
0
261
595
104
43
20
62
228
824
-198
-94
-78
-370
454
-55
399
-108
291
0
291
607
110
29
20
47
206
813
-202
-86
-76
-364
449
-56
392
-106
287
0
287
618
108
28
20
47
203
821
-189
-101
-87
-377
444
-57
387
-105
283
0
283
2,320
400
391
74
188
1,053
3,373
-769
-362
-339
-1,470
1,903
-410
1,493
-305
1,188
0
1,188
2,407
419
130
80
197
826
3,233
-786
-369
-321
-1,476
1,757
-221
1,536
-415
1,121
0
1,121
2,518
429
130
100
203
862
3,380
-798
-377
-325
-1,499
1,881
-246
1,635
-441
1,194
0
1,194
2,636
440
130
120
209
899
3,535
-817
-384
-329
-1,531
2,005
-273
1,732
-468
1,264
0
1,264
Exceptional items
Non-recurring items
Adjusted net profit
NOKm
"
"
166
291
143
256
0
138
0
278
0
261
0
291
0
287
0
283
309
962
0
1,121
0
1,194
0
1,264
31.7
31.8
20.5
2.66
1.88
31.8
31.8
20.5
2.32
1.65
31.8
31.8
20.5
0.89
0.89
31.8
31.8
20.5
1.79
1.79
31.8
31.8
19.5
1.60
1.60
31.8
31.8
19.5
1.79
1.79
31.8
31.8
19.5
1.76
1.76
31.8
31.8
19.5
1.74
1.74
54.3
52.3
56.6
54.6
57.2
55.1
58.7
56.7
56.5
54.6
58.3
56.4
60.1
58.1
61.8
59.9
31.8
31.8
20.5
7.67
6.21
4.00
58.7
56.7
31.8
31.8
19.5
6.88
6.88
3.75
61.8
59.9
31.8
31.8
18.6
6.98
6.98
3.75
65.1
63.2
31.8
31.8
17.8
7.08
7.08
3.75
68.6
66.8
1.69
1.75
4.9
38.8
47.2
66.2
17
20.2
14.3
11.3
1.65
1.73
5.4
39.6
46.9
59.3
43
16.8
11.9
11.5
1.63
1.70
5.4
48.8
48.8
50.7
73
6.2
6.2
11.4
1.67
1.76
5.8
49.0
49.0
47.6
8
12.3
12.3
12.2
1.61
1.72
6.3
47.1
47.1
49.0
18
11.5
11.5
12.3
1.59
1.70
5.7
44.9
44.9
47.4
18
12.5
12.5
12.3
1.58
1.69
6.4
44.8
44.8
46.5
18
11.8
11.8
12.3
1.59
1.70
5.5
45.9
45.9
47.5
18
11.3
11.3
12.9
1.66
1.74
5.8
43.6
48.0
55.0
35
13.7
11.1
12.2
1.59
1.70
5.5
45.7
45.7
47.6
18
11.8
11.8
12.9
1.59
1.69
5.4
44.4
44.4
46.1
19
11.3
11.3
13.6
1.58
1.68
5.2
43.3
43.3
44.9
20
10.9
10.9
14.4
Per Equity Certificate data
Average number of equity certificates
Number of equity certificates
EC share of total equity (e.o.p.)
EPEC
EPEC adj.
DPEC
BPEC
TBPEC
m
"
"
%
NOK
"
"
"
"
Key ratios
Net interest margin
Net interest margin adj.
Gross lending growth y/y
Cost/Income
Cost/Income adj.
Cost/Income adj. less MTM items
Net loan losses
ROE
ROE adj.
Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1)
%
"
"
"
"
"
"
bps
%
"
"
Source: Company accounts, Pareto Securities Equity Research
24
Disclaimers and disclosures
V. 02.2015
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“Buy”
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Pareto Securities Research expects this financial instrument’s total return to exceed 10% over the next six months
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AAA
AA+ / AA / AAA+ / A / ABBB+ / BBB / BBBBB+ / BB / BBB+ / B / BCCC+ /CCC/ CCC-
Best Quality
Strong ability for timely payments
Somewhat more exposed for negative changes
Adequate ability to meet payments. Some elements of protection.
Speculative risk. Future not well secured
Timely payments at the moment, but very exposed to any negative changes
Default a likely option
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27
Disclaimers and disclosures
Distribution in Singapore
Pareto Securities Pte Ltd holds a Capital Markets Services License is an exempt financial advisor under Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 (“FAA”) of Singapore and a subsidiary of Pareto Securities AS.
This report is directed solely to persons who qualify as "accredited investors", "expert investors" and "institutional investors" as defined in section 4A(1) Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 (“SFA”) of Singapore. This
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Securities AS, its affiliates and its authorized agents are not responsible for, nor do they accept, any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this research report or the information
contained herein.
Distribution in United Kingdom
This publication is produced in accordance with COBS 12.3 as Non-Independent Research and approved under part IV article 19 of The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “FPO”) by
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provision in the FPO.
Copyright
This publication or report may not be mechanically duplicated, photocopied or otherwise reproduced, in full or in part, under applicable copyright laws. Any infringement of Pareto Securities Research´s copyright can be
pursued legally whereby the infringer will be held liable for any and all losses and expenses incurred by the infringement.
28
Disclaimers and disclosures
Appendix B
Appendix A
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading ST Regulation § 3-11, letters d-f, ref the
Securities Trading Act Section 3-10
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulations section 3-10 (2) and section 311 (1), letters a-b
Pareto Securities AS does not alone or - together with affiliated companies or persons – owns a portion of the
shares exceeding 5 % of the total share capital in any company where a recommendation has been produced or
distributed by Pareto Securities AS.
Pareto Securities AS or its affiliates own as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Exchange Act, 1 %
or more of the equity securities of Equinox Offshore Accommodation Ltd and Pioneer Marine Inc.
Pareto Securities AS may hold financial instruments in companies where a recommendation has been produced
or distributed by Pareto Securities AS in connection with rendering investment services, including Market Making.
Please find below an overview of material interests in shares held by employees in Pareto Securities AS, in
companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS. “By material
interest” means holdings exceeding a value of NOK 50 000.
C o mp any
A nalyst ho ld ing s
AF Gruppen
Austevoll Seafood
Avance Gas Holding Ltd
Awilco LNG
B2 Holding
Bonheur
BW LPG Ltd
T o t al ho ld ing s
1,675
45,215
2,770
40,000
939,400
21,300
2,169
C o mp any
Panoro Energy
Pareto Bank
Petroleum Geo-Services
Prosafe
Protector Forsikring
Questerre Energy
REC Silicon
A nalyst ho ld ing s
T o t al ho ld ing s
104,950
19,590
42,000
86,105
504,000
117,000
132,836
Deep Sea Supply
45,000
REC Solar
9,021
Det norske oljeselskap
40,180
Royal Caribbean Cruises
6,614
DNB
71,323
SalM ar
DNO International
24,750
Sandnes Sparebank
Seadrill
14,962
Dolphin Group
140,000
Selvaag Bolig
70,000
Farstad Shipping
11,700
Fred Olsen Energy
23,245
Sparebank 1 SM N
85,423
Frontline 2012
16,650
Sparebank 1 SR-Bank
77,820
Gjensidige Forsikring
25,755
Sparebanken M øre
Global Rig Company
501,699
72,000
Havila Shipping
Höegh LNG
Kongsberg Automotive
Kongsberg Gruppen
Spectrum
4,507
9,750
Stolt-Nielsen
2,335
9,000
Storebrand
81,070
Subsea 7
20,961
8,700
22,700
M arine Harvest Group
900
Tanker Investments
Telenor
Personalhuset
Aker Philadelphia Shipyard
Golden Close
Pexip
Andes Energia
Gulf Keyst one Pet roleum
Pharmaq
Ardmore Shipping Corporat ion
Half wave
Philly Tankers
At lant ic Of f shore
Harkand Global Holdings
Pioneer Marine
Aurora LPG
Hercules Of f shore
Pioneer Public Propert ies III
Avance Gas Holding Lt d.
Hit ec Vision
Polarcus Limit ed
B2 Holding
Höegh LNG
Prosaf e
Baker Hughes
Jaya Holdings
Prospect or Of f shore Drilling
Blue Wall Shipping
Kist ef os
Prot ect or Forsikring
Boa OCV
Klaveness Ship Holding
Ranger Of f shore
Cecon
Knight sbridge Tankers
Robot ic Drilling Syst ems
Chemical Transport at ion Company
Kolon Wat er & Energy
Rocksource
Deep Sea Supply
Kongsberg Gruppen
Sanjel Corporat ion
Delt a Elect ronics
Lundin Mining
Selvaag Bolig
DigiPlex Fet
Magseis
Solør Bioenergi
DryShips
Navig8 Chemical
St erling Resources
Exmar
Navig8 Crude Tankers
Tanker Invest ment s
Faf nir Of f shore
Navig8 Product Tankers
Teekay Of f shore
Faroe Pet roleum
Norda
TiZir
Fjord Line
Noreco
Vardia Insurance Group
Flumill
Ocean Yield
West ern Bulk
Genel Energy
Oro Negro
World Wide Supply
Gjensidige Forsikring
PA Resources
Xcit e Energy
Global Rig Company
-
-
This overview is updated monthly (this overview is for the period 31.01.2014 – 31.01.2015).
Appendix C
Disclo sure requirements pursuant to the No rwegian Securities Trading ST Regulatio n § 3-11(4)
D ist r ib ut io n o f r eco mmend at io ns
R eco mmend at io n
% d ist r ib ut io n
Buy
62 %
Hold
29 %
Sell
9%
1,395
15,900
TGS-NOPEC
7,730
D ist r ib ut io n o f r eco mmend at io ns ( t r ansact io ns* )
7,600
R eco mmend at io n
% d ist r ib ut io n
Buy
71 %
Hold
29 %
Sell
0%
Norsk Hydro
150,504
Vardia Insurance Group
Norske Skogindustrier
130,000
Western Bulk
Norwegian Air Shuttle
3,100
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding A
Ocean Yield
26,700
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA
Odfjell Drilling
16,700
Yara International
22,906
Paret o Bank
Golar LNG
12,000
8,322
Lerøy Seafood Group
Orkla
144,744
Statoil
515,000
Global Ship Lease
AINMT Holdings
15,001
217,000
Grieg Seafood
Af rican Pet roleum
72,800
DOF
Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge
Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities AS have prepared or distributed
investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities AS have been lead manager/co-lead manager or have
rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous 12 months:
Zenterio
600,000
3,304
104,700
19,934
236,817
* Companies under coverage with which Pareto Securities Group has on-going or completed public investment banking services in the previous 12 months
This overview is updated monthly (last updated 31.01.2015).
This overview is update monthly (last updated 31.01.2015)

29
Disclaimers and disclosures
Appendix D
This section applies to research reports prepared by Pareto Securities AB.
Disclosure of positions in financial instruments
The beneficial holding of the Pareto Group is 1 % or more of the total share capital of the following companies included in P areto Securities AB’s research coverage universe: None
The Pareto Group has material holdings of other financial instruments than shares issued by the following companies included in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe: None
Disclosure of assignments and mandates
Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities AB has prepared or distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities AB has been lead manager or co -lead manager
or has rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous twelve months:
Africa Oil
Lundin Gold
Sagax
Etrion Corporation
Lundin M ining
ShaM aran Petroleum
FastPartner
Nexstim
Victoria Park
Lucara Diamond
NGEX Resources
-
Members of the Pareto Group provide market making or other liquidity providing services to the following companies included in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe:
Africa Oil
Lundin Gold
NGEX Resources
Tethys Oil
Cavotec
NAXS
Rusforest
Tribona
Delarka Holding
Nexstim
ShaM aran Petroleum
Trigon Agri
Lucara Diamond
-
-
-
Members of the Pareto Group have entered into agreements concerning the inclusion of the company in question in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe with the following companies:
ShaMaran Petroleum.
This overview is updated monthly (last updated 13.02.2015).
30