Part 1

Customers Day 2012
Lise Mulpas
Communication Manager
Customers Day 2012
Welcome & Introduction
Frank Vandenberghe
Director Energy & System Management
Customers Day 2012
Elia Group Vision
Catherine Vandenborre
Chief Corporate Officer
We lead the way in the energy revolution by
developing the diversified, sustainable and reliable
power systems, spanning land and see,
with new possibilities
7
• We anticipate and fulfill the needs of today’s and tomorrow’s
communities.
• We’re an innovative-driven, result-oriented, reliable,
entrepreneurial and empathic team developing the integrated
European power system.
• We bring together three essential elements: we integrate
renewable energy, further develop the energy market and do
anything within our power to be able to keep the lights on.
• We pursue sustainable profitable growth for our shareholders.
8
Customers Day 2012
Probabilistic methods & Results
Viviane Illegems
System Adequacy & Methods
Generation Adequacy Analysis
A Generation Adequacy Analysis is not an estimation of
commercial exchanges or opportunities but a capacity analysis
to determine whether under different extreme conditions and
combinations of extreme conditions a balance between load
and generation is possible.
13
Phases
of Market
Modelling
Generation
Adequacy
Analysis
Inputs
• Demand profile
• Generator
characteristics
• CHP profile
• Wind and Solar Profiles
• Transfer Capacities
• Exchanges to Rest of
World profile
Modelling
• Hourly model
• Each country is a single
market node
• Assessment of the
generation adequacy for
each market node
subjected to constraints
such as generator
availabilities and
transmission capacity
constraints.
Outputs
• Indicators of security of
supply
• Indicator of usage of
interconnectors for
adequacy reasons
14
Inputs for Generation Adequacy Analysis
Objective:
To perform an accurate risk analysis of the balance
between load and generation in the short and medium
term
For detection on time, it is appropriate to take a
probabilistic view that takes into account extreme
events regarding load and generation evolutions
=> One set of basic hypotheses + sensitivity analyses
15
Inputs for Generation Adequacy Analysis
•
National generation
• starting from current situation:
• decommisioning : conservative
• commissioning : no additional commissioning for classical (controllable) gas or coal
power stations
• Generation in surrounding countries
• based on input delivered in the framework of the European development plan 2012
(TYNDP)
16
Inputs for Generation Adequacy Analysis
•
Autonomously versus interconnected => the
balance between generation and load is left to
the market by the Belgian Electricity Law.
• Belgian simultaneous import capacity
 winter : 3500 MW
 summer : 3000 MW (mid April till mid
October)
 For CWE day ahead market: the split up
of this 3,5 GW over the borders is of
limited relevance.
 Exceptional limitations of the
simultaneous import capacity are not
taken into account
• Exchange possibilities of surrounding
countries
 Based on European development plan
2012 (TYNDP 2012)
17
Basic Adequacy hypotheses
• Electricity demand
» critical periods for the security of supply
correspond to the peak situations at severe
conditions (e.g. cold wave combined with
absence of wind and sunlight).
» Peak load at severe conditions tends to rise,
independently of the measured energy
consumption on an annual basis.
Bron : KMI
A decrease in consumption on annual basis is
not representative for the peak load during a
cold day
•
2008 : consumption 90,2 TWh – peak 13733
MW
•
2009 : consumption 83,8 TWh (-7,1%
compared with 2008) – peak 13838 MW
(+0,8% compared with 2008)
•
2010 : consumption 90,4 TWh (+7,9%
compared with 2009) – peak 14391 MW
(+4% compared with 2009)
18
Probabilistic Adequacy Analysis

Focus on the availability of thermal generation
- 20000 time series based on the unavailability duration, average unavailability per month taking
into account the type of generator and the country.

Time series for non-dispatchable generation (wind, solar, biomass, …) and load
based on information available at ENTSO-E level.
- Positive :
- Correlation of load & non-dispatchable generation profiles and thermal/nuclear
generation stochastics between countries is respected.
- Further under development :
- At the moment limited information regarding temperature sensitivity for the CWE region
at ENTSO-E level
- At the moment limited information regarding the variability of RES for the CWE region at
ENTSO-E level
19
Output of a probabilistic adequacy analysis
•
Indicators of security of supply
•
•
•
•
Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE): The expected number of hours per year that the balance
between load and generation can not be met in a statistic “average” year.
LOLE(95): The expected number of hours per year that the balance between load and
generation can not be met in an exceptional year with a probability of 1 in 20.
“Energy not served (ENS”): the amount of energy that not can be delivered by local
generators or through import from neigbouring countries (limited to 3500 MW) during the LOLE
hours.
Indicator of usage of interconnectors for adequacy reasons
•
Reflects the average simultaneous import capacity that is needed to balance load assuming all
available national generation is used and that excess generation capacity is available abroad.
Reminder : current situation regarding load shedding contracts with
industrial clients for system service reasons:
Maximum number of hours
20 h/yr
Maximum power
261 MW
Maximum energy
+/- 5000 MWh/yr
20
Illustration 1 :
• Scenario description (KERN 4/7/2012)
• Generation hypotheses of the scenario (KERN 4/7/2012) on which the decision
of the federal government of 4 juli 2012 was based to delay the
decommissioning of Tihange 1 with 10 years
• Decommissioning
• Doel 1 : 15/2/2015, Doel 2 : 1/10/2015
• Old thermal units (> 35 years old) (~ 1000 MW)
• No decomissioning of several CCGTs (< 25 years old)
• Commissioning
• No new thermal units
• RES & CHP development according to federal objectives
21
Generation Adequacy Analysis : KERN
4/7/2012
•
Illustration - situation 2017
•
•
Exceptional situations (P95)  2017: one winter month during 2 to 3 hours, on average a loss of
power of ~520 MW  load shedding of 1,04 million inhabitants or 416.000 families
Additional measures are needed to cope with exceptional situations till the commissioning of new
power plants.
Average year
KERN
LOLE
number of
hours with
shortage
0
2013
3
2015
10
2017
Exceptional year (P95)
ENS
Energy Not
Served (in
MWh)
20
1259
4289
LOLE (95)
number of
hours with
shortage
1
17
40
ENS (95)
Energy Not
Served (in
MWh)
323
7437
20676
22
Illustration 2:
• Scenario description (KERN 4/7/2012 & unavailability of Doel 3 &
Tihange 2)
• Generation hypotheses of the scenario (KERN 4/7/2012) on which the decision
of the federal government of 4 juli 2012 was based to delay the
decommissioning of Tihange 1 with 10 years
• Decommissioning
• Doel 1 : 15/2/2015, Doel 2 : 1/10/2015
• Old thermal units (> 35 years old) (~ 1000 MW)
• No decomissioning of several CCGTs (< 25 years old)
• Commisioning
• No new thermal units
• RES & CHP development according to federal objectives
• Additional generation hypothesis
• Accelerated decommisioning of Doel 3 & Tihange 2 due to cracks in
their reactor vessels
23
Generation Adequacy Analysis : KERN
4/7/2012 & unavailability of Doel 3 & Tihange
2 (KERN-D3-T2)
•
Illustration - situation 2013
•
•
Exceptional situations (P95)  2013: one winter month during 2 to 3 hours, on average a loss of
power of ~450 MW  load shedding of 0,9 million inhabitants or 360.000 families
P95 if Doel 3 & Tihange 2 are shut down permanently  Additional measures are needed to cope with
exceptional situations till the commissioning of new power plants.
Average year
LOLE
number of
hours with
shortage
2013
10
2015
71
2017
181
KERN-D3-T2
Exceptional year (P95)
ENS
Energy Not
Served (in
MWh)
3785
31542
93869
LOLE (95)
number of
hours with
shortage
42
178
337
ENS (95)
Energy Not
Served (in
MWh)
19041
105698
227531
24
Elia’s conclusions regarding the
Generation Adequacy Analysis – “national
generation adequacy report”
1. A well functioning international market is crucial in a European
context especially with more variability and changes in the
availability of generation.
2. The additional generation adequacy analyses regarding the
unavailability of Doel 3 & Tihange 2 assumes a commercial
simultaneous import capacity of 3500 MW, that will be offered
to the market by Elia during winter.
3. It is assumed that market parties will buy the required energy
on the international market in order to supply their customers.
4. Under severe conditions it is very probable that coordinated
actions are needed to maintain the security of the electricity
system.
25
The way forward
• Improvement for Generation Adequacy
- From 2013 on additional time series for wind, solar and load will become available at ENTSOE level.
- Correlation between countries is respected
- More extreme situations can be modelled
26
Customers Day 2012
Ancillaries
Patrick De Leener
Energy Management
Customers Day 2012
Warmtekrachtkoppeling in de
glastuinbouw
Herman Mariën
Vertegenwoordiger van WOM
Docent aan de hogeschool Thomas More Kempen
Wom cvba
warmtekrachtkoppeling in de
glastuinbouw
www.wom.be
31
Ing. Herman Marien
onderwerpen
• Productieproces
– Warmte & CO2.
• Wom cvba
– kengetallen
– warmtekrachtkoppeling
• Wkk praktisch
– Contractueel kader
– Wkk en elia-onbalans
32
Productieproces in serre
• Productieproces
– Teelt
– Productverwerking
– Productiemiddelen
•
•
•
•
33
Unit/water-nutriënten
Klimaatregeling
Verwarming – energie
CO2-bemesting
WOM kengetallen 2012
• 103 leden (>60% van de installatie in glastuinbouw)
– ± 130 Motoren (MWM; Jenbacher; Catepillar; MTU; RR; ….)
– Van 500 kW tot 8,4 MW
•
± 340 ha glasoppervlakte.
– Tomaat (306 ha) – Paprika (19,3 ha) – Komkommer (6,2 ha)
– Snijbloemen (roos/gerbera/…) (20 ha)
• Groepsaankoop van 3.1 TWh aardgas
• Groepsproductie van 1 100 GWh elektriciteit.
(± 220 MW opgesteld vermogen)
Waar en grootte
Dimensioneren van WKK
• Op basis van belastingscurve
– Energiebehoefte en maximaal gebruik wkk
– Optimale CO2-benutting
– Maximaal elektrische rendement
tomaat
1.650 MJ/m²
Wkk-vermogen / ha =
660 kWe
1800,0
1600,0
1400,0
kW / ha
1200,0
1000,0
800,0
600,0
400,0
200,0
36
0,0
105 u
630 u
1.155 u
1.680 u
2.205 u
2.730 u
3.255 u
3.780 u
4.305 u
4.830 u
5.355 u
Draaipatroon
• Vergelijkbaar met menselijke
elektriciteitsconsumptie.
– Koude periode  vaak continu
– Tussen seizoen  afhankelijk van
warmte en CO2-vraag
– Zomer  10-12 u per dag op basis
van CO2-vraag
– Warmte wordt gebufferd in
buffertank
37
Contractueel kader
• Individueel gasafname contract
– Groeps-flexibiliteit
• Globaal leverancierscontract elektriciteit
– verantwoordelijkheid bij elke eindgebruiker
• Gas-elektriciteit positie (handel)
– Termijnorders:
• Cal; Q; Mnd; week
– Nominatie Dag-1 = fijn regeling met belpex
• Nominatie - Realisatie (fysiek)
– Per kwartier
– Afwijking tov nominatie = onbalans
• Positief = MWh(+) aan pos onb prijs
• Negatief = MWH(-) aan neg onb prijs
• Groot verschil 2011 - 2012
38
Profiel – invulling in E-markt
• Combinatie van
– Termijn: Cal; Q; Mnd; week
– Dag-1: belpex
Calendar
Quarter
Month
Weeks
Belpex
MWh
39
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Dagelijkse nominatie
• Tuinder nomineert voor volgende dag
– Onvoorwaardelijk :
• van uur A tot B
– Voorwaardelijk:
• belpexprijs uur A >= limiet dan draaien
• Beslissingsfactoren
– Weersvoorspelling
– Ruimte buffertank
– Verwachte marktprijzen
40
BELPEX - ONBALANS
41
Wom - onbalansinfo
• Tuinders volgen onbalans via
– Elia website
– Eigen verwerkte grafieken
– SMS-apps
42
Wom-profiel elektriciteit 2011

Q1-11


Q2-11


15/8
Q4-11

43
15/5
Q3-11


14/2
15/11
Wom-profiel elektriciteit 2012
 Q1-12
 15/2
 Q2-12
 14/5
 Q3-12
 12/9
44
Dank voor de aandacht
Ing. Herman Marien
[email protected]
Thomas More Kempen
www.wom.be
45
Customers Day 2012
Winter Action Plan
Procedure in case of energy scarcity
Wim Michiels
National Control Center
Content
• Consequences of forced outage of NPPs Doel 3 & Tihange 2
during winter 2012-2013
• Elia Winter Action Plan
• What will happen in normal winter and extreme case of energy
shortage?
48
Consequences of forced outage of NPPs Doel 3
and Tihange 2 during winter 2012-2013
remember
Risk
49
How is Elia prepared
Elia Winter Action Plan 2012- 2013 :
•
ENTSO-E Winter outlook: normal and severe conditions
•
Specific impact study: CWE
•
Dynamic analysis - voltage stability
•
Maximize availability of grid and generation during winter period
•
Specific monitoring of system adequacy and margins: previsional and
Real time
•
Availability of exchange of power between TSO’s (TenneT & RTE)
•
Guarantee import capacity (3500 MW)
•
Prepare actions with authorities
•
Preparation with DSO’s (synergrid)
•
Internal training
•
Communication, information, sensibilize,…
•
…
50
System operations in normal conditions and
extreme situation of energy shortage
Next winter 2012-2013:
Normal operations
Extreme situation: risk on energy shortage in
case of exceptional cold spell (e.g. February
2012) and no renewables production
51
Normal operations
•
Responsibilities
- ARP (Access Responsible Party): balance load and injection
- TSO: balance in real time, maximize commercial capacity, system
operation (congestions, voltage, flows, stability,…)
•
Market has “to work”
- Belgium will be structural dependent upon import, even in normal
operations
- Elia guarantees import capacity of 3500 MW but market players have to
buy the necessary energy on international market (CWE market coupling)
•
Need for coordinated (international) actions to guarantee Security of Supply
52
Market
53
Example: physical flows in case of
max. import of 3500 MW of The
Netherlands
Mercator
Avelgem
Avelin
Meerhout
Bruegel
Courcelles
Monceau Gramme
Chooz
Mazures
Aubange
1000 MW
54
What will happen in extreme situation of
energy shortage? Legal context
Grid Code A.R. 19-12-2002 - Art 312
Ministerial Decree M.B. 03-06-2005
Gird Code A.R. 19-12-2002 - Art 314
Afdeling II –Heropbouwcode
Section II – Code de reconstruction
Art.314.§1. De netbeheerder stelt de heropbouwcode op,
na raadpleging van de commissie, die, in voorkomend
geval, in de contracten bedoeld in artikel 312, § 1
opgenomen wordt. De heropbouwcode en zijn wijzigingen
worden aan de commissie meegedeeld
Art.314.§1. Le gestionnaire du réseau établit le code de
reconstruction après consultation de la commission
lequel est repris, le cas échéant, dans les contrats visés à
l’article 312, § 1er. Le code de reconstruction, ainsi que
ses modifications, sont notifiés à la commission.
55
Elia Emergency plan: levels
1. Crisismanagement: organisation and coordination
2. Defence plan: 2 parts
• Protection against sudden phenomena: automatic load shedding plan
• Protection against predicted scarcity/ shortage
3. Restoration code: restore supply
56
Crisis organizations: Elia and Government
57
Extreme situation of energy shortage/ scarcity
ARP does/can not respect balance obligation because of:
• Generation scarcity
• Not enough energy available to import
 SCARCITY
Characteristics of scarcity:
1. Amount (in MW) of load at risk: how much?
2. Geographical distribution: where?
3. Expected duration (h) or frequency of this scarcity situation: how long?
Scarcity is predictable  Measures
1. Demand limitation (soft)
2. Prohibition (hard) to use electricity for certain purposes
3. Load shedding
4. Open lines
58
Energy shortage: processes
Prevention
Elia
Detection
Notification
Discussion
Decision
Execution
ARP/ Elia
Elia
Elia/ FOD Ec
Minister(s)
Minister(s)
Elia/ DNB
When situation is confimed:
•Previsional (week ahaed, day ahead)
•(partial) activiation Elia emergency plan
•during real time operations
•Sending out std fax (see slide) to
CGCCR
Proposition Elia: match specific
nature of shortage with set of
measures
ENTSO-E Winter outlook,
Operational planning (Y, M, W, D-1),
international coordination,
intraday & real time follow-up,….
TSO proposes measures; Minister decides
(MB June 3th 2005; art 312, §4,1 TR)
Minister informs public through the media
59
Extreme situation of energy shortage: operational
procedure
1.
•
•
•
2.
•
•
Demand limitation measures
Sensibilisation of public: lowering down demand through media (radio, TV, websites,…)
Shift demand peak
Use other means
Prohibition to use electricity for certain purposes: examples
Industry: limited use of airco, prohibition to use electricity for certain processes,
reduce power to cooling installations for limited period, reducing outside lighting, ….
Tertiary: limited use of airco, electrical heating, lighting during peak hours,…
60
Load shedding: manual activation
NW
NE
CE
SW
SE
3000 MW
Load shedding in rural grids
Elia in collaboration with DSO’s
61
Energy shortage procedure
Load shedding: examples
Example: 1000 MW deficit
Manual activation of level 1 and 2 in all electrical zones
Example: Deficit of 1000 MW > 6h or several days
manual activation of levels 1 and 2 in all zones during
first 3h, followed by the activation of level 3 and 4
during next 3 hours (and repowering of levels 1 and 2).
If situation persists several days: order of manual
activated levels could be changed.
62
Energy shortage procedure
Cut interconnection lines: no

Less electrical connections makes the system less stable (e.g.
Indian black out in July 2012)

Operation of the electricity market is essential
Reconstruction

Decision to take through consultation with authorities and Elia.
63
Conclusions
ARP (Access Responsible Party): balance load and injection
Elia balances control block in real time (f=50 Hz)
During next winter (in case Doel 3 and Tihange are not available):
 Belgium will be structural dependent upon import even during normal
winter conditions
 Risk in extreme winter conditions on energy shortage  scarcity
 3500 MW import capacity available BUT Market players have to buy
energy on (international) market
Measures in case of energy scarcity:
1. Demand limitation
2. Prohibition
3. Load shedding
64
Customers Day 2012
Coffee break