Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, Tbk

Transcription

Equity Valuation
October 22, 2015
Target Price
Low
2,681
Primary Report
High
2,974
Tourism and Property
Stock Performance
More Theme Parks for Sustainability
Source: Bloomberg, PEFINDO Research and Consulting Equity
& Index Valuation Division
Stock Information
IDR
Ticker code
PJAA
Market price as of October 21, 2015
2,100
Market price – 52 week high
2,723
Market price – 52 week low
1,283
Market cap – 52 week high (bn)
4,356
Market cap – 52 week low (bn)
2,054
Last 4 Weeks of Price and Volume
Source: Bloomberg, PEFINDO Research and Consulting Equity
Shareholders
(%)
DKI Jakarta Regional Administration
72.00
PT Pembangunan Jaya
18.01
Public (each below 5% of ownerships)
Contact:
Equity & Index Valuation Division
Phone: (6221) 7884 0200
[email protected]
“Disclaimer statement in the last page is an
integral part of this report”
www.pefindo-consulting.co.id
9.99
PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (“PJAA”) traces its history back to
1965, when Ir. Soekarno, Indonesia’s first President gave command
to the Governor of Jakarta then, dr. H. Soemarno Sosroatmodjo, to
lead the development and construction of Taman Impian Jaya Ancol
(“Ancol”) in the Jakarta’s coastal area. Later in 1966, this project was
turned over to PT Pembangunan Jaya, who prepared a comprehensive
plan of Ancol development area. In 1992, the name of PT
Pembangunan Jaya was changed to PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, with
the Jakarta Special Province Administration holding the company’s
majority shares (80%). On July 2, 2004, PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol
listed its shares on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and became a
publicly listed company. The IPO was followed by the revitalization of
Gelanggang Renang Ancol into Atlantis Water Adventure and
Gelanggang Samudera Ancol into Ocean Dream Samudra in 2005 and
2006, respectively. PJAA continued to launch a series of initiatives to
improve the quality of its assets, such as the conversion of Padang
Golf Ancol into Ocean Ecopark in 2011, installation of sea water
sanitation -- called Reverse Osmosis -- to meet the demand for clean
water in Ancol, as well as entering Meeting, Incentive, Conference and
Exhibition (“MICE”) business by establishing the Ecovention function
hall. In 2014, PJAA introduced Indoor Dunia Fantasi (“Dufan”)
concept, with Ice Age and Hello Kitty Adventure theme parks inside
Dufan area, and reopened Seaworld Ancol in early 2015.
Page 1 of 15
INVESTMENT PARAMETER
Collaborates with Global Brand Holders in Launching New Attraction
In order to keep its parks attractive, PJAA changed its Ramashinta site
(inside Dufan area) into an indoor theme park, and together with Century
Fox and Sanrio Company Ltd., PJAA set up new adventure areas filled with
famous cartoon figure of Hello Kitty and several cartoon characters from
the Ice Age movie. As a result, Dufan saw an increasing number of visitors
in 2014. The number of visitors to Dufan in 2014 reached 2.06 million, up
from 1.91 million in 2013, and it will likely be higher in 2015 as it already
reached 384 thousands in 1Q2015.
Expansion to Support Future Growth
We like PJAA as they continuously expand, upgrade and introduce new
parks in order to support their future growth. In 2015, PJAA plans to invest
around IDR2.3 trillion of capital expenditure to develop the Ocean Fantasy
project, reclaim land and complete the development of new hotel. We
believe that the Ocean Fantasy project will become a huge attraction for the
visitors in the future. The reclamation of 32 ha area in Ancol will provide
land bank for PJAA’s future property development business.
Potentially Higher Revenue from Seaworld Ancol
After being closed for around 8 months, PJAA reopens the Seaworld Ancol
on July 17, 2015. But this time, PJAA will manage it by themselves (not
transfer it to another party). As a result, PJAA will be able to generate
higher revenue from this area. PJAA will no longer receive only 5% of the
revenue generated from ticket sales and 6% of the food sales.
Business Prospect
Despite the slowing down of Indonesia’s economy to 4.7% and 4.67% in
1Q2015 and 2Q2015, we view that the prospect of recreational industry,
especially in Jakarta, remains bright. With Jakarta’s large population base,
most of which is in the productive and young age bracket, transportation
infrastructure development, and limited recreational park within the capital
city, the industry will remain prospective in the long term. Benefitted also
from its unique location (coastal area) and ability to increase land bank (by
way of reclamation), PJAA’s future is undeniably optimistic. Not to mention,
PJAA’s revenues will be so much better after taking over the management
of Seaworld Ancol. We believe that PJAA will be able to post a 14.6%revenues growth at the end of 2015.
Table 1: Performance Summary
2012
1,054
2013
1,242
2014
1,101
2015P
1,262
2016P
1,321
Pre-tax profit [IDR bn]
239
262
305
404
441
Net profit [IDR bn]
178
192
235
304
332
EPS [IDR]
111
120
147
190
207
10.0
7.9
22.4
29.2
9.2
P/E [x]
6.6
9.1
12.1
12.4*
11.3*
PBV [x]
0.9
1.2
1.8
2.1*
1.7*
Revenue [IDR bn]
EPS growth [%]
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research & Consulting Equity & Index Valuation Division
Estimatates
* based on share price as of October 21, 2015 – IDR2,100/share
“Disclaimer statement in the last page
is an integral part of this report”
October 22, 2015
Page 2 of 15
MACROECONOMY & INDUSTRY
Disappointing Macroeconomic Condition in 1H2015, but Slightly
Improved in the Second Half
The country’s economy has been growing at declining pace for the first half
of this year. Its growth decelerated to a multi-year low in Q1 and recent
data points to continued sluggishness in Q2. In May, exports registered an
eight consecutive loss and the manufacturing index remained stuck in
contractionary territory amid ongoing declines in production and new
orders. Moreover, the government’s highly touted public spending program
is off to a worryingly slow start. Limited progress has been made on the
implementation of new infrastructure projects due to bureaucratic obstacles
and land disputes. The delays are a concern because government spending
was expected to offset weakness in the external sector and was foreseen as
the main driver of growth this year.
Consumer prices increased by 0.54% in June 2015 over the previous
month, reaching 7.3% of annual inflation. Prices pressures typically
increase during the holy month of Ramadan, which began this year in midJune. As a result, the Bank Indonesia decided to hold the BI policy rate at
7.5%, as expected by the market.
Table 2: Macroeconomic Indicators
Indicators
Inflation (%)
GDP Growth (%)
BI Rate (%)
2013
2014
1H15
2015F*
6.4
5.6
7.5
6.4
5.0
7.75
7.3
4.7
7.5
6.5
5.0
7.20
Source: Bank Indonesia, PEFINDO Research & Advisory – Equity & Index Valuation Division
Notes:* Projection
However, we projected that the economic growth to pick up later in 2015
and strengthen further in 2016, as public spending gathers pace and
confidence recovers. The abolition of fuel subsidies has provided the
necessary fiscal space for increased public infrastructure investment. After
spiking, following the removal of fuel subsidies, inflation is now moderating
in large part because of the fall in energy prices. Inflation is likely to stay at
6.5%, as the recent Rupiah weakness offsets lower energy prices.
Large Population in Jakarta Creates Huge Demand for Tourism
We view that huge and steadily growing population in Jakarta, amounting
to 10.2 million people as of June 2015, will keep the demand for leisure and
recreational activities in Jakarta area buoyant. A good chunk of such
population is in the prime and productive age group (around 25 – 39 years)
with large percentage also being in the early age group (> 9 years old).
With such composition, there is a significant percentage of young family (a
family with one or two kids under 9 years old) that require leisure
recreational activities during holidays and weekends.
Figure 1: Jakarta’s Population, 2000 – June 2015
October 22, 2015
Source: BAPPEDA DKI Jakarta, PEFINDO Research & Consulting – Equity & Index Valuation
Division
Page 3 of 15
Figure 2: Jakarta Composition of Population by Age,
2000 – June 2015
Source: BAPPEDA DKI Jakarta, PEFINDO Research & Consulting – Equity & Index Valuation
Division
Limited Supply for Recreational Area in Jakarta
We view that the recreation industry in Jakarta is still prospective. This is
due to Jakarta’s growing population and limited cultural and recreational
spots available in the capital city. Not many recreational areas have been
developed in Jakarta; to date, we notice 14 sites in operation for cultural
and recreational uses. With the moratorium of shopping mall development
in Jakarta, taking effect in 2011, the population has turned to outdoor sites
for their leisure activities.
Table 3: Cultural and Recreational Sites in Jakarta, 2014
No
Type
Area Wide (Ha)
1
Taman Impian Jaya Ancol
2
Taman Mini Indonesia Indah
Marine
tourism
recreation
Culture tourism
3
Taman Margasatwa Ragunan
Education tourism
4
Monumen Nasional
5
Musem Nasional
6
7
Museum
ABRI
Satria
Mandala
Musem Sejarah Jakarta
Education and history
tourism
History
and
culture
tourism
Education tourism
8
Museum Tekstil
9
Museum Bahari
10
11
Museum Seni Rupa
Keramik
Museum Wayang
12
Gedong Joang 45
13
Taman
Arkeologi
Onrust
(Kep. Seribu)
Pelabuhan Sunda Kelapa
14
October 22, 2015
Tourism Site
dan
History
tourism
History
tourism
History
tourism
History
tourism
History
tourism
History
tourism
Marine
shopping
History
tourism
and
552
250
140
80
26.34
5
and
education
13.59
and
education
1.6
culture
9.8
and
education
8.3
and
education
0.63
and
education
3.66
and
tourism
and
and
12.0
education
760
Source: Dinas Kebudayaan dan Pariwisata Provinsi DKI Jakarta
Page 4 of 15
BUSINESS INFORMATION
PJAA’s Profile
PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk’s (“PJAA”) long journey began with the
reclamation of Taman Impian Jaya Ancol (“Ancol”) beach in 1962, and in
1966, a company (“BPP Proyek Ancol”) that managed this area was
incepted. In 1973, the first cottage in Ancol area, Putri Duyung Cottage,
was completely constructed. The next year, two theme parks, i.e. the
Gelanggang Renang Ancol and Gelanggang Samudra Jaya Ancol were
inaugurated, and ten years later the first and largest fun theme park –
Dufan, was officially open to public. In 1992, BPP Proyek Ancol was officially
changed into PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, and later became a publicly
listed company in 2004. In 2006, PJAA started the property development
business by launching an exclusive townhouse cluster, Marina Coast Royal
Residence, in Ancol area. To attract more visitors, PJAA together with
Century Fox, a global film maker company which owns the copy right of
many cartoon characters, launched the Ice Age new ride in 2014. In the
same year, PJAA also two theme parks collaborated with Sanrio Company
Ltd., introducing Hello Kitty Adventure at Dufan.
Figure 3: PJAA’s Milestones
2006:
Entered
property
industry
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research & Consulting - Equity & Index
Valuation Division
PJAA is engaged in three main businesses, which are:
 Recreation: PJAA has succesfully developed and manages Ancol’s
beaches (Marina Beach, Festival Beach, Indah Beach, Beach Pool
Beach and Carnaval Beach), and various theme parks (Dunia
Fantasi, Atlantis Water Adventure, Ocean Dream Samudra, Pasar
Seni, Ocean Ecopark);
 Property Development: PJAA has built a reputation as exclusive
and luxurious property developer with several residential clusters,
namely Marina Coast, De’Cove, Coastavilla, Puri Marina Ancol Town
House, Northland Apartment, and Jaya Ancol Seafront.
 Trade and Services: PJAA manages several appealing culinary
areas in Ancol, in which many famous restaurants exist, i.e. Talaga
Sampireun, Jimbaran, Bandar Djakarta, and Segarra. PJAA has also
built Candi Bentar Convention Hall and Ecovention building, to
support its activities in this business. A partnership scheme, such as
to operate Ancol Beach City and Seaworld Ancol, is another type of
cooperation that PJAA has entered into to support this business.
October 22, 2015
To structure the businesses, PJAA has established several subsidiaries,
which are:
 PT Taman Impian Jaya Ancol (“TIJA”): engaged in the recreation,
resort, trading and service business. PJAA owns 99.99% of TIJA’s
shares. TIJA manages several business units, i.e. Dunia Fantasi,
Page 5 of 15







Ocean Dream Samudra, Atalantis Water Adventure, Putri Duyung
Ancol, Marina and Ocean Ecopark.
PT Seabreez Indonesia (“Seabreez”): engaged in the trading,
development,
transportation,
repair
workshop,
publication,
industrial, agricultural and service business. PJAA owns 95.27% of
Seabreez’s shares.
PT Sarana Tirta Utama (“STU”): engaged in the service, general
trading, industrial as well as development. PJAA owns 65% of STU’s
shares.
PT Jaya Ancol (“JA”): engaged in trading, development,
transportation, repair workshop, printing, industrial, mining,
agriculture and service. PJAA owns 99% of JA’s shares. JA manages
dolphin and sea lions performance at Suoi Tien Park, Vietnam.
PT Jakarta Tollroad Development (“JTD”): engaged in development
and service business. PJAA owns 25.64% of JTD’s shares.
PT Philindo Sporting Amusement and Tourism (“PSAT”): engaged in
tourism business. PSAT also is the operator of HAILAI building. PJAA
owns 50% of PSAT’s shares.
PT Jaya Bowling Indonesia (“JBI”): engaged in management of sport
facility, especially bowling facility in the HAILAI building. PJAA owns
16.75% of JBI’s shares.
PT Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus Marunda Jakarta (“KEKMJ”): engaged
in development, trading and service businesses. PJAA owns 25% of
KEKMJ’s shares.
Figure 4: PJAA’s Group Structure
0,82%
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research and Consulting - Equity
October 22, 2015
Still the Number One Tourist Destination in Jakarta
Supported by its large recreational area and the ability to create many
attractive events, Ancol remains the number one tourist destination in
Page 6 of 15
Jakarta. Moreover, Ancol was the only recreational destination that booked
positive visitor growth in 2014, compared to the other “big four” tourist
destinations in Jakarta. Although the visitor count was lower than that of
Taman Marga Satwa Ragunan during Eid-al Fitr Holiday in 2015, we are in
the view that Ancol will keep the status of number one tourist destination in
2015. PJAA has continuously conducted several events at end of year,
which can hoist the number of visitors.
Figure 5: Number of Visitors to Several Tourist
Destinations in Jakarta, 2012 – 1Q2015
Source: Dinas Kebudayaan dan Pariwisata Provinsi DKI Jakarta, PEFINDO Research
and Consulting - Equity & Index Valuation Division
New Rides, Drawing More Visitors
Few years back, PJAA relocated the Ramashinta site from Dufan to an
indoor theme park. In April 2014, PJAA launched Ice Age Arctic Adventure
in this area, an imitation of arctic area in which tourists can wander and
ride an artificial ship accompanied by Ice Age movie cartoon characters.
Else, together with Sanrio Company Ltd., PJAA opened a new attraction
area called Hello Kitty Adventure, in which visitors can watch and know
more about Hello Kitty cartoon characters. Given these new attractions,
Dufan saw an increasing number of visitors in 2014. Dufan’s visitors in
2014 reached 2.06 million up from 1.91 million in 2013. In 2015, the
visitor count will potentially surpass the 2014’s number, since Dufan’s
visitors already reached 384 thousands in 1Q2015, long before Eid-al Fitr
and school holidays in the month of June-July.
Figure 6: Dufan Visitors, 2013 – 1Q2015
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research and Consulting - Equity
October 22, 2015
Page 7 of 15
Reopening the Seaworld Ancol Potentially Generates Higher
Revenue
After being closed for around 8 months, the Seaworld Ancol reopened on
July 17, 2015. When Seaworld Ancol was being managed by PT Sea World
Indonesia, PJAA only received around 5% of the entry ticket sales and 6%
of the sales of food. Now that PJAA takes over the management, the
revenue contribution from Seaworld Ancol will be so much higher in the
future than those of past years.
Figure 7: Atmosphere on the Seaworld Ancol Reopening Day
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research and Consulting - Equity & Index
Valuation Division Estimates
Keep on Expanding
In 2015, PJAA plans to invest around IDR2.3 trillion for capital expenditure.
Such investment will be used to develop the Ocean Fantasy project, reclaim
land, and complete the development of J.W. Marriot Hotel. For the first
phase of reclamation project, PJAA plans to reclaim around 32 ha land area,
located north of its existing area. Upon the completion of the first phase,
PJAA plans to add another 1,000 ha of reclamation area, which will be
connected to the 32 ha area. While the Ocean Fantasy project is a
recreational area that offers fun water activities such as the Flying
Dutchman area, Sinbad Adventures, etc. In such area, PJAA also plans to
build another hotel. We view that such plan will sustain the growth of
PJAA’s revenues in the future.
October 22, 2015
Page 8 of 15
Figure 8: PJAA’s Ocean Fantasy Project
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research
Figure 9: PJAA’s Land Reclamation
Project
Sold Many Properties, but Revenue Was Still Not Recognized
PJAA’s ability to sell its inventories of properties in 2014 is worth noticing.
PJAA was able to sell around 100 units of Jaya Ancol Seafront condominium
and its double-decker units, which recorded a combined sales of IDR238.5
billion. The Northland Apartment was 80% sold. However, such sales were
not fully recognized as the construction of the towers had not been
completed. As a result, PJAA’s revenues from the property development
business were significantly down in 2014 to IDR195 billion, from IDR417.7
billion in 2013. The trend continued into 1H2015, whereby the revenues
only slightly improved from IDR49.6 billion in 1H2014 to IDR53.5 billion in
1H2015. However, we believe that the sales contribution from this business
will significantly increase after the construction of apartment tower (The
Northland Apartment) is finished.
October 22, 2015
Page 9 of 15
FINANCE
Temporarily Dropped in 1H2015
During 2014 and 1H2015, PJAA’s revenues demonstrated a downward
trend. PJAA’s revenues in 2014 was down to IDR1.01 trillion, from IDR1.24
trillion in 2013. The trend continued into 1H2015, as the revenues dropped
to IDR476.7 billion, vs. IDR488.2 billion in 1H2014. Such drop in 2014 was
mainly attributable to the lower revenue recognition from the property
development business in the year, since the Northland Apartment and Ancol
Jaya Seafront Condominium had not been completely built. In 1H2015,
PJAA’s revenues from the main gate of Ancol (entry ticket) increased.
However, as most of these visitors were only sightseeing or just playing,
PJAA’s revenues from theme parks, restaurants and hotel, or other services
was less. However, we believe that such condition is only temporarily, since
the number of integrated recreational spots in Jakarta is still limited, while
the number of population is growing.
Figure 10: PJAA’s Revenue, 2013 – 1H2015
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research and Consulting - Equity & Index
Valuation Division
However, Margins Were Improving
Despite the decline in PJAA’s revenues in 2014 and 1H2015, we saw their
margins were improving. The gross profit margin was recorded 45.33% in
2014, significantly higher than 39.73% in 2013. Net profit came in higher,
21.35% in 2014 vs. 15.48% in 2013. Further, in 1H2015 PJAA’s net profit
margin significantly improved to 25.55%, vs. 14.92% in 1H2014. The
decreasing land and building costs in 2014, for relatively inexpensive land
acquisition in 2014, caused this significant improvement. While in 1H2015,
as a result of Seaworld Ancol’s asset transfer agreement, PJAA received
IDR77.4 billion that brought its net profit margin up.
October 22, 2015
Page 10 of 15
Figure 11: PJAA’s Margins, 2013 – 1H2015
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research & Consulting - Equity & Index
Valuation Division
Lower Interest Bearing Debt
During 1H2015, PJAA paid its loan to PT Bank Mandiri Tbk as much as
IDR80 billion and, hence, reduced its debt level to just IDR160 billion at the
end of 1H2015, from IDR240 billion as of end 2014. With this, PJAA’s
interest-bearing debt dropped to IDR458.6 billion, much lower than
IDR538.2 billion as of end 2014. However, we see that PJAA’s interest
coverage ratio (EBITDA / interest expense) was still lower than that of
2013. Interest coverage ratio in 2013 was 14.7x, while in 2014 and 1H2015
they were 10.5x and 10.98x, respectively.
Figure 12: PJAA’s Liabilities to Equity
Ratio & Interest Bearing Debt to Equity
Ratio
Figure 13: PJAA’s Interest Coverage
Ratio
October 22, 2015
Page 11 of 15
SWOT ANALYSIS
Table 4: SWOT Analysis





Strength
The only longest sloping beach in
Jakarta


Portfolio is being concentrated at
Ancol area only

Growing indoor recreational
sites, such as Trans Studio or
Kidzania
Intensifying competition among
property developers in north
coastal area of Jakarta
Long experience as a recreational
and amusement park owner and
operator
Continuous launch of new rides to
keep the recreational park
attractive
Expansion of land bank by way of
reclamation
Owner and operator of Seaworld
Ancol
Opportunity

Weakness

Rapid land price appreciation for
the past three years
High barrier to entry
Large population in the productive
and young age group as PJAA’s
target market

Threat
Source: PEFINDO Research & Consulting - Equity & Index Valuation Division
October 22, 2015
Page 12 of 15
TARGET PRICE
Valuation

Methodology
We applied the income approach using Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) as
the main valuation approach considering that income growth is a value
driver in PJAA instead of asset growth.
We did not combine the DCF method with the Guideline Company
Method (GCM) as there are no comparable companies listed on IDX for
PJAA.
This valuation is based on 100% PJAA’s shares price as of October 21,
2015, using PJAA’s financial report as of June 30, 2015 for our
fundamental analysis.
 Value estimation
We used Cost of Capital of 9.22% and Cost of Equity of 10.80% based
on the following assumption:
Table 5: Assumption
Risk free rate [%]*
Risk premium [%]*
Beta [x]**
Cost of Equity [%]
Marginal tax rate [%]
Interest Bearing Debt to Equity
Ratio [x]
WACC [%]
8.66
1.77
1.21
10.80
25.0
0.83
9.22
Source: Bloomberg, PEFINDO Research & Consulting - Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates
Notes: * As of October 16, 2015
**PEFINDO Beta Saham as of October 15, 2015
The target price for 12 months based on the valuation as of October 21,
2015 using the DCF method with an assumption of a 9.22% discount rate
is between IDR2,681 to IDR2,974 per share.
Table 6: Summary of DCF Method Valuation
Conservative
Moderate
Aggressive
1,052
3,395
301
(459)
4,290
1,600
2,681
1,107
3,574
301
(459)
4,524
1,600
2,828
1,163
3,753
301
(459)
4,758
1,600
2,974
PV of Free Cash Flows [IDR bn]
PV Terminal Value [IDR bn]
Non-Operating Assets – [IDR bn]
Interest Bearing Debt [IDR bn]
Total Equity Value [IDR bn]
Number of Share [mn shares]
Fair Value per Share [IDR]
Source: PEFINDO Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates
October 22, 2015
Page 13 of 15
Table 7: Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive
Income
Figure 14: Market Value Added and Market Risk
(IDR bn)
2012
2013
2014
2015P
2016P
Revenue
1,054
1,242
1,101
1,262
1,322
COGS
(597)
(748)
(602)
(742)
(770)
457
493
499
520
552
(214)
(220)
(239)
(202)
(222)
243
274
261
318
330
(4)
(12)
(44
86
111
Gross profit
Operating expense
Operating profit
Other income
(charges)
Pre-tax profit
239
262
305
404
441
Tax
(61)
(72)
(71)
(101)
(110)
Net profit
178
192
235
304
332
Source: Bloomberg, PEFINDO Research & Consulting Equity & Index Valuation
Division
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research and Consulting Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates
Figure 15: ROA, ROE and Assets Turnover
Table 8: Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
(IDR bn)
2012
2013
2014 2015P
2016P
Cash and cash equivalents
553
417
323
474
613
Receivables
138
229
151
110
115
Inventories
6
6
8
9
9
23
16
19
31
32
1
1
1
1
1
Assets
Other current assets
Financial assets – hold to
maturity
Receivables to affiliated parties
25
19
50
36
36
Investment in other companies
165
258
545
530
530
Fixed assets
994
1,185
1,268
1,295
1,360
Real estate assets
240
193
247
375
393
Investment properties
181
284
277
278
307
62
20
20
116
122
2,388
2,627
2,907
3,252
3,516
Other long-term assets
Total assets
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research & Consulting
Equity & Index Valuation Division
Table 9: Key Ratios
Liabilities
Trade payables
56
32
65
77
80
Short term bank loan
60
100
194
160
60
Other short-term liabilities
344
311
300
342
364
Long-term debts
437
437
344
279
279
Other long-term liabilities
181
276
386
473
480
Total liabilities
1,078
1,157
1,289
1,331
1,264
Total equity
1,310
1,471
1,618
1,921
2,253
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research and Consulting Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates
2012
2013
2014 2015P 2016P
Revenue
12.9
17.8
(11.3)
14.6
4.7
Operating profit
19.2
12.6
(4.7)
22.1
3.7
Net profit
10.0
7.9
22.4
29.2
9.2
Gross margin
43.4
39.7
45.3
41.2
41.8
Operating margin
23.1
22.0
23.7
25.2
25.0
Net margin
16.9
15.5
21.4
24.1
25.1
Growth [%]
Profitability [%]
ROA
7.5
7.3
8.1
9.3
9.4
ROE
13.6
13.1
14.5
16.7
15.4
Liabilities to equity
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
Liabilities to assets
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Solvability [x]
Source: PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk, PEFINDO Research and Consulting –
Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates
October 22, 2015
Page 14 of 15
DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared based on trusted and reliable sources. Nevertheless, we do not guarantee
its completeness, accuracy and adequacy. Therefore, we are not responsible for any investment
decisions made based on this report. All assumptions, opinions and predictions were solely our
internal judgments as of the reporting date, and those judgments are subject to change without
further notice.
We are not responsible for any mistakes or negligence that occurs by using this report. Recent
performance cannot always be used as a reference for future outc ome. This report does not offer a
recommendation to purchase or hold particular shares. This report might not be suitable for some
investors. All opinions in this report have been presented fairly as of the issuing date with good
intentions; however, they could change at any time without further notice. The price, value or
income of each share of the Company stated in this report might be lower than investor
expectations, and investors may obtain returns lower than the invested amount. Investment is
defined as the probable income that will be received in the future; nonetheless such returns may
fluctuate. As for companies whose shares are denominated in a currency other than Rupiah, foreign
exchange fluctuation may reduce their share value, price or the retu rns for investors. This report
does not contain any information for tax considerations in investment decision -making.
The share price target in this report is a fundamental value, not a fair market value or a transaction
price reference required by regulations.
The share price target report issued by the PT PEFINDO Riset Konsultasi (“PRK”) or “PEFINDO
Research and Consulting” is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold particular shares. It should
not be considered as investment advice from the PRK a nd its scope of service to some parties,
including listed companies, financial advisors, brokers, investment banks, financial institutions and
intermediaries, does not correlate with receiving rewards or any other benefits from such parties.
This report is not intended for any particular investor and cannot be used as part of an objective
investment analysis of particular shares, an investment recommendation, or an investment strategy.
We strongly recommend investors to consider the suitability of the situ ation and conditions before
making a decision in relation with the figures in this report. If necessary, consult with your financial
advisor.
PEFINDO keeps the activities of the Equity Valuation Division separate from its Ratings Division to
preserve the independence and objectivity of its analytical processes and products. PEFINDO has
established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of non -public information received
in connection with each analytical process. The entire process, meth odology and the database used
in the preparation of the Reference Share Price Target Report as a whole are different from the
processes, methodologies and databases used by PEFINDO in issuing ratings.
This report was prepared and composed by PRK with the objective of enhancing the transparency of
share prices of listed companies in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This report is also free of
influence from any other party, including pressure or force either from IDX or the listed company
reviewed. PRK earns a reward from IDX and the reviewed company for issuing this report twice a
year. For further information, please visit our website at http://www.pefindo -consulting.co.id
This report was prepared and composed by the PEFINDO Research & Consulting - Equity & Index
Valuation Division. In Indonesia, this report is published in our website and in the IDX website.
October 22, 2015
Page 15 of 15

Pembangunan Jaya Ancol, Tbk

Transcription

Similar documents

Suite 311, Block A, Glomac Business Centre 10 Jalan SS6/1, Kelana

Invasion to Green Territory War Room Strategy

EQUITY - RBFCU

Medsin at PHAST

INVESTMENT CRITERIA ACTIVE PLATFORM

Untitled - embrace the vibrancy of life

Kontak January 2015 - Global Jaya School

petaling jaya area

Mocse_Equity insert - Mocse Federal Credit Union

Lord Abbett Firm Profile - Lord Abbett Passport Portfolios