Northern Reflections - Canadian Climate Forum

ISSUE PAPER #3 • WINTER 2015
Northern Reflections:
Climate Change and Infrastructure in Canada’s North
CANADA OUR NORTHERN NATION
MAP 1
This Issue Paper provides a synthesis of climate risks and impacts in the
North, and builds a case for developing a coordinated Action Plan for
Northern infrastructure.
Canadians pride themselves on being a northern people. Our built,
social, and cultural systems reflect the environmental and geographical
opportunities and challenges that come with living at northern latitudes.
Generally, the further north one goes in Canada, the harsher the climate.
From a geographical perspective, the ’Canadian North’ is often defined as
starting at the southernmost limit of permafrost (see Map 1). The climatic
conditions that result in permafrost-affected regions – severe cold sustained
for many months in winter, and normally lower summer temperatures than
southern Canada – are those that people typically associate with the North.
These conditions shape the ecosystems people think of as northern: boreal
forest, tundra, polar desert, sea ice, and snow.
No Permafrost
Subsea Permafrost
Isolated Patches (0 –10%)
The harsh climate and remoteness of many parts of the Canadian North
present unique challenges to developing, operating, and maintaining
infrastructure. With a changing climate many of these challenges are being
exacerbated. For example, a major study (Johnson et al., 2008) concluded
that permafrost degradation would add several billion dollars in costs to the
maintenance of Alaska’s public infrastructure over 22 years (2008-2030).
Sporadic Discontinuous (10 – 50%)
Climate change is occurring more quickly in northern Canada than almost
anywhere else on Earth. At the same time, the security, economy, and
environmental health of our northern regions are ever more dependent on
networks of climate-sensitive infrastructure that includes roads, harbours,
Regions outside Canada
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CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM • ISSUE PAPER #3 • Winter 2015
Extensive Discontinuous (50 – 90%)
Continuous (90 –100%)
Water Area
Polar Ice Area
Glaciers
Line of Discontinuous Permafrost
hospitals, pipelines, airports, telecommunications structures, buildings,
electrical generation and distribution assets, and industrial sites. In
spite of the importance and urgency of these issues, there has yet to be
a comprehensive assessment of climate change-related infrastructure
vulnerabilities in the Canadian North.
Arctic temperatures are climbing at twice
the rate of those of the rest of the planet
Photo Credit: Yukon Research Centre
Permafrost is defined
as ground – whether clay,
sand, bedrock, or other
materials – that remains
continually at or below
0 degree C for more
than two consecutive
years. Half of Canada’s
land area falls into zones
where permafrost can be
present and much of our
northern infrastructure is
underlain or supported
by permafrost
Globally, 2015 is reported to be the warmest year since record keeping
began in the late 1800’s. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration calculated a global temperature for September of 60.62F
(15.9C), beating the record set in 2014. In the Arctic, this warming is
expected to continue melting snow and ice, warming and thawing
permafrost, and driving other environmental changes.
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CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM • ISSUE PAPER #3 • Winter 2015
The warming and thawing of permafrost is posing enormous challenges to
the construction and maintenance of infrastructure in the North. Homes and
businesses are being impacted and critical infrastructure like hospitals and
schools are in many cases increasingly threatened. Furthermore, many roads
and runways, and infrastructure supporting the distribution of information,
electricity, water, and fuel have been significantly impacted by subsiding or
slumping ground, and other hazards, like landslides, frequently induced by
permafrost thaw.
During summer, in permafrost regions the surface (active) layer of the
ground that warms and eventually thaws is underlain by ground that remains
frozen (permafrost). With climate change, active layer depths have already
increased in many locations. As the active layer deepens, the underlying
permafrost can become less effective at providing support and stability for
infrastructure. Locations along shorelines, where most communities are
situated, tend to have poorly drained soils (like silt and clay) and therefore
higher ice contents. Permafrost with higher ice contents poses greater risks
to infrastructure when it warms and thaws.
Photo Credit: Fritz Mueller
Did you know?
After the big fire season
in 2013, a warm summer
Many structures are designed to take advantage of the bearing strength of
permafrost, and in other cases infrastructure (like reservoirs, landfills, and
tailing ponds) is designed to rely on permafrost’s “impermeable” qualities, to
keep contaminants from moving through the soil and into groundwater. As
permafrost warms it generally becomes increasingly permeable.
and drought in the NWT
During the winter of 2015, the extent of sea
ice in the Arctic was the lowest on record.
its history, with total costs
The normally cold climate in the Arctic results in the ocean waters freezing.
Unlike the East coast of Canada, the resulting sea ice can be present in all
seasons; some survives through multiple seasons becoming thicker and
stronger. Sea ice is dynamic, driven perpetually by winds, currents and tides.
Along the Arctic coasts, ice builds outward from the shoreline in the fall and
joins with the unattached and floating, multi-season ice pack.
(well beyond the territory’s
Transportation and coastal infrastructure in the North has evolved and
adapted to the seasonal changes in sea ice cover. The warming associated
with climate change is resulting in a documented reduction in the extent and
average thickness of Arctic sea ice. It may seem logical to conclude that this
will provide improved navigation for marine transportation. However, some
of the most hazardous types of ice – enormous chunks of calved glaciers
or thicker “multi-year” sea ice – will now move about in less predictable
ways. Moreover, reduced ice cover will allow for waves and swells to build
higher increasing the risk to offshore oil and gas exploration and production
infrastructure, ships and smaller boats.
In many northern coastal communities, such as those along the southern
part of the Beaufort Sea, reduced sea ice cover has already led to
increased wave action and more significant storm surge-related flooding.
In combination with degrading permafrost, this is causing severe slumping
and enhanced coastal erosion, and substantial risk to coastal infrastructure,
especially in communities less sheltered from the open sea.
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CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM • ISSUE PAPER #3 • Winter 2015
resulted in 2014 being
the worst fire season in
coming in at $55 million
budgeted $7.5 million).
The heat and drought
also resulted in low water
levels that impacted
river transportation.
Furthermore, Yellowknife
was forced to use dieselgenerated power instead
of hydro, which cost the
territory another $20
million.
Just one decade ago few governments,
industries, or professions had given serious
consideration to the impacts of climate
change on their northern assets or services.
The pace of environmental change and related impacts have
begun to draw significantly more attention that even just ten
years ago: •Territories: Each of Canada’s territorial governments now has climate
change adaptation policies in place and work units established to
coordinate implementation, in an attempt to “mainstream” climate
change into government decision-making. In addition, provincial,
northern regions are also beginning to take more focused stock of
climate change impacts and adaptation (e.g. ‘Plan Nord’ in Quebec)
• The Pan-Territorial Adaptation Strategy (2011) and Pan-Territorial
Adaptation Partnership now drive sustained inter-governmental
initiatives to develop and share knowledge on such critical
issues as permafrost hazard mapping, and the effects of
landscape change on source water supply. • Hazard Mapping: Each territorial government is working to develop
climate change hazard maps in order to inform land use planning and
infrastructure design processes in their respective jurisdictions.
• Community Adaptation Plans: Over 28 communities across Nunavut,
the Northwest Territories, Yukon, Nunavik (northern Quebec), and
Nunatsiavut (Labrador) have assessed and developed plans to address
their climate change vulnerabilities with the funding and technical
support of key federal, territorial, and provincial departments, and private
sector players.
• Research & Monitoring: Important academic (e.g. ArcticNet; Yukon
Research Centre) and government (e.g., Canadian High Arctic Research
Station Program; Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment; National
Research Council’s Arctic Program) research and monitoring initiatives
are improving knowledge, piloting new adaptation technologies, and
testing new infrastructure designs and management approaches
• Federal Government: A range of federal institutions have led or are
leading initiatives sparked by the recognized pace of environmental
change in the North and elsewhere in Canada including: development
of (now outdated)1 guidance for considering climate change in
environmental assessment; coastal, marine and terrestrial climate
change vulnerability assessments; national working groups on northern
transportation infrastructure and climate change; and a set of five new
adaptation standards for northern community infrastructures affected by
climate change.
Photo Credit: Yukon Government
A school in Ross River
(Yukon) needs to undergo
structural repairs as
a result of problems
triggered when permafrost
beneath it began to thaw,
fewer than 15 years after it
was first constructed;
Abandoned building in Dawson
•Engineers: There has been action on the part of the engineering
profession: first through development and testing of a climate change
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CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM • ISSUE PAPER #3 • Winter 2015
Photo Credit: Yukon Government
vulnerability assessment protocol for engineered structures (20062014, Engineers Canada) and, most recently, through a commitment
by Canada’s national engineering association to establish “resilient
infrastructure engineering” as a new area of professional certification
(March 2015).
• International Context: Also, circumpolar collaborations with other
northern countries and northern aboriginal organizations have ramped up.
As an example, the Arctic Council has launched a number of initiatives,
including the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment; the Arctic Monitoring
and Assessment Program; the Snow, Water, Ice, Permafrost in the Arctic
(SWIPA); and the International Permafrost Association which has set up
the Global Terrestrial Network on Permafrost and recent activities related
to the Black Carbon Framework. Recently, the Arctic Council has set up
the Arctic Adaptation Network Portal as an important tool for information
sharing.
And yet, to establish truly resilient northern infrastructure,
significant further advancements are required in a number of
areas:
• Data Collection and Interpretation: Relevant climate science and
environmental monitoring, to meet the specific needs of hazard/risk
mappers, climate modelers, engineers, industrial and land-use planners
is required. For example, despite recent snow-related roof failures across
various northern regions, snow data are not yet routinely collected
in populated areas (communities) or, if collected, fit poorly with the
requirements of structural design engineers. Similar information, and
the interpretive services to support effective use, are generally less
accessible in the territories and the less populated northern parts of the
provinces.
• Coherent Analytical Techniques: Despite a growing focus on climate
change issues in the Canadian North, significant disparities between
and among techniques mean that results across assessments are often
difficult or impossible to compare, compromising their usefulness for
decision-makers. Coherency is essential for the verification of results
and their useful comparison across locations (e.g. for use in conducting
pan-northern assessments). Disparity among techniques may in some
instances be symptomatic of an inability to agree on best or reasonable
practices. Where best or reasonable practices remain undefined, the
quality of information that informs development of major infrastructure
projects can suffer.
•Resourcing: While territorial governments have made commendable
efforts to address climate change adaptation, significantly more support
is needed. For example, small isolated communities are challenged
to benefit even from existing knowledge. Nowhere is the need to
“mainstream” climate change considerations into programs, policies,
and projects greater than in the Canadian North. Resourcing must be
commensurate with the urgency and enormity of the task.
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CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM • ISSUE PAPER #3 • Winter 2015
Photo
Credit:
Dr.Yukon
JamesGovernment
Drummond
Photo
Credit:
Did you know?
Permafrost thaw is now
affecting airport runways
across the North. At the
Environment Canada
weather and research
station in Eureka, large
planes required for resupply of goods and
transportation of people
can no longer use the
runway in much of the
summer. The estimated
repair cost for this one
runway is $22M. All of the
25 communities in Nunavut
depend on air travel for
transportation.
Photo Credit: Sue Natali
Canada needs a more coherent Action Plan
for northern Canadian infrastructure and
climate change.
Infrastructure is required to support the social, cultural, economic, safety
and security requirements of northern communities. Developing and
maintaining such infrastructure has always posed significant challenges in
the Canadian North. Climate change is magnifying many of these challenges,
and introducing others. A well-coordinated Action Plan is required to support
individual communities, territories, and private sector players from sharing
knowledge, planning, and prioritizing the many interventions that may be
required.
Potential steps and considerations for developing and
implementing such a plan could include:
Effective Governance
Take stock of progress already made in establishing effective collaborative
networks related to the issue of northern climate change adaptation,
specifically infrastructure. Building upon lessons learned to date, develop
governance mechanisms that ensure clearer leadership from and
collaboration between all levels of government, professions, industry, not for
profits, and aboriginal organizations.
Knowledge to Inform Practice
Systematic approaches need be taken to ensure past and future research is
effectively translated into northern infrastructure design and management
practices, and knowledge gaps are effectively identified, prioritized and
addressed. 6
CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM • ISSUE PAPER #3 • Winter 2015
Important outcomes should include:
• Improved understanding of the many complex relationships between
climate and infrastructure performance in northern Canada.
• Establishment of consistent climate change hazard, vulnerability, and
risk assessment tools and techniques for use in the Canadian North,
including the verification of results and inter-comparison of data.
• Provision of access to and interpretive services addressing the climate
change information required by northern infrastructure design and
management professionals.
• Development of new curricula in post-secondary institutions that help
fill gaps in needed skills and expertise. For example, there are virtually
no courses currently taught on permafrost in engineering faculties in
Canada. Institutions should consider incorporating into engineering
and skilled trades curricula mandatory courses on climate change
impacts, and infrastructure design and management.
Effective Decision-Making
Infrastructure-related planning, policy, and regulatory processes need to be
developed and coordinated in ways that consider climate change-related
risks over the full service life of northern infrastructure. Resource support
for understanding and acting on climate change-related risks should be
consistent across jurisdictions and areas of infrastructure development.
Suggested approaches include:
• Consistent requirements for incorporating climate change
considerations in community and industrial land-use planning,
engineering design, and lifecyle planning in northern infrastructure
projects.
• Pan-northern guidance for incorporating climate change
considerations in project-level environmental assessments and
regulatory processes.
• Provisions of forward-looking climate change and natural hazard
information services to northern land-used planners and infrastructure
practitioners.
In closing, it is important to state that an Action Plan must fully engage and
involve the peoples of the North. In order to meet their needs it is essential
to incorporate their culture and unique understanding of the changes
underway in the northern environment.
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CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM • ISSUE PAPER #3 • Winter 2015
Photo Credit: Yukon Government
Reconstruction of the
northern sections of
the Alaska Highway
10-15 years ago
induced thawing of the
permafrost that has
resulted in continual
settling and cracking of
the road that in places
is costing $30,000 per
kilometre per year in
extra maintenance.
Photo Credit: John Schade
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Co-Authors:
Jim Abraham, Director, Canadian Climate Forum
Ian Church, Director, Canadian Climate Forum
Erik Sparling, Director, Climate Risk Decision Support, Risk Sciences International
Reviewers:
Rebecca World and Stephen Roddick, Yukon Climate Change Secretariat
Sara Holzman and Colleen Healey, Climate Change Section, Department of
Environment, Government of Nunavut
Brian Sieben, Environment Division, Climate Change Unit, Dept. of the Environment
and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories
Simon Eng, Engineering and Climate, Risk Sciences International
Dave Kelly, Climaction Services
Dr. Tom Pedersen, Professor, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of
Victoria
Deirdre Laframboise, Executive Director, Canadian Climate Forum
PHOTO CREDITS
Maps of Canadian IPY study area: Environment Canada
The sea ice graph: US Nations Snow & Ice Data Center
The temperature graph: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
The permafrost core: Yukon Research Centre
Forest fire: Fritz Mueller Photography
Ross River school and Dawson Abandoned Building: Yukon Government
Eureka runway: Dr. James Drummond, Dalhousie University
Cracked highway shoulder: Yukon Research Centre
Crooked highway and person overlooking permafrost slide: Sue Natali, Woods
Hole Research Center
Permafrost slope: John Schade, Woods Hole Research Center
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CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM • ISSUE PAPER #3 • Winter 2015
Photo Credit: Sue Natali