CRAVEN THIRTY NEW BERN, NC mSA SUMMARY REPORT

Transcription

CRAVEN THIRTY
NEW BERN, NC mSA
SUMMARY REPORT
Prepared for
Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Development Company
April 2013
by
MARKET ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH, INC.
312 Crosstown Road, Suite 151
Peachtree City, GA 30269
(770) 631 0804
CRAVEN THIRTY, NEW BERN, NORTH CAROLINA
NEW BERN, NEW BERN, NC mSA
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
FOREWORD
(i)
SECTION I -- SUMMARY FINDINGS
Executive Summary
1
SECTION II -- MARKET CONDITIONS
Regional Context
Craven Thirty
Regional Access
Business Generators for Craven Thirty
Residential Trade Area
Residential Trade Area Population and Households
Residential Trade Area Income Characteristics
Residential Trade Area MOSAIC Profile
Residential Trade Area GAFO Expenditure Potential
Visitor Market
Analogous Markets
Retail Competition
Metro Area Retail Sales
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15
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SECTION III -- SALES POTENTIAL
Retail Development Program
Sales Assumptions
Residential Market Sales Potential and Market Share
Visitor Market Sales Potential and Market Share
Pros and Cons of Craven Thirty
Conclusions
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32
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SECTION IV -- TABLES
FOREWORD
This report was prepared by Market Analysis And Research, Inc. The information,
conclusions and analysis contained in this report are confidential and intended solely for
use by the initial recipients of this report, Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Development
Company, as a basic planning guide within the framework of the specific conditions
stated in this document. No other person or entity shall have any contractual or other legal
or equitable right to this report or any of its contents, or any right to rely on it, unless
Market Analysis And Research so agrees expressly in writing.
All data presented herein are based upon information believed to be reliable. However,
Market Analysis And Research necessarily has had to rely upon certain base information
compiled by others. Every reasonable effort has been made to insure that this information
was current, accurate and complete at the time this report was prepared. Market Analysis
And Research does not assume responsibility for events or market conditions which occur
subsequent to the completion of this report.
Market Analysis And Research is a market research company specializing in retail
location and shopping center development. Its principal is Mr. Richard J. Tunstall.
Market Analysis And Research, Inc. is located at:
Market Analysis And Research, Inc.
312 Crosstown Road, Suite 151
Peachtree City, GA 30269
(770) 631 0804
i
SECTION I
SUMMARY FINDINGS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Craven Thirty site is located in the northeastern quadrant of US-70 and SR-43 in New Bern,
North Carolina. The site is five miles to the west of downtown New Bern.
Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Development Company (WREDCO) is developing the site. Plans call
for mixed-use development on the 530-acre site. In addition to retail, plans call for single-family
residential, multi-family residential, town homes, office and institutional space, a medical park,
and restaurant/hotel pads. The possibilities of additional uses for the site are being explored,
including a proposal to add a movie studio to the site.
The tenant mix at the outlet center is assumed to be Mid-America brands such as American
Eagle, dressbarn, Justice, and New York & Company with a small subset of better fashion outlet
retail common at other centers in the region.
The center is planned to open in 2014 with 2015 as the first full year of operations. Craven
Thirty is expected to generate sales from residents in the residential trade area and visitors to the
region.
RESIDENTIAL TRADE AREA
The residential trade area is comprised of four components:
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The Primary Trade Area composed of New Bern, Havelock, Fairfield Harbor, and
Kinston.
The Morehead City Component is comprised of Morehead City, Atlantic Beach,
Emerald Isle and Beaufort in Carteret County. This sector is connected to the site
via US-70.
The Jacksonville Component, which is centered on Jacksonville and Camp
Lejeune. This component is connected to the site by US-17.
The Northern Component contains Washington and Greenville, North Carolina.
SR-43 and US-17 connect the northern component to the site.
Together these four components form the effective residential trade area – shown in Figure Four
below. As composed, the trade area extends 41 miles to the north, 50 miles to the east, 40 miles
to the south, and 33 miles to the west, and the trade area is forecast to provide 50 percent of total
center sales.
The effective residential trade area contained an estimated 600,100 persons and 232,800
household in 2012 and, the effective residential trade area reported per capita income of an
estimated $21,871 and average household income of $55,038.
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A MOSAIC Profile of the Effective Trade Area reveals three MOSAIC Groups with
significantly higher percentages of total households than the national average: Group F:
Promising Families – contains 12.7 percent of total households in the trade area (32,900
households) compared to 3.4 percent nationally; Group N: Pastoral Pride – contains 18.7 percent
of total households in the trade area (48,300 households) compared to 7.3 percent nationally;
and, Group O: Singles & Starters – accounts for 17.8 percent of total households (46,000
households) in the Effective Trade Area compared to 8.8 percent nationally.
GAFO expenditure potential in the effective trade area increased from $1.1 billion in 2000 to an
estimated $1.7 billion in 2012, an average annual rate of 3.4 percent.
VISITOR MARKET
As is common for smaller cities, research on the visitor market is limited in New Bern. However,
data published by the state of North Carolina in their 2011 North Carolina Regional Travel
Summary provides an insight into the size of the region’s visitor market. In the report, the state is
divided into three regions. The easternmost 28 counties make up the coastal region. While, the
region extends outside of the expected tourism draw of the center, which is assumed to be
tourists to New Bern and the Crystal Coast in Carteret and Onslow Counties, the general visitor
profile is useful. In summary:
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There were 7.5 million person-trips to the region in 2011
The average stay was 4.5 nights
The average party size was 2.4 persons
91 percent of visitors drove to the region
50 percent of visitors stayed in private residences, 35 percent stayed in a hotel/motel,
and 11 percent stayed in a timeshare/condo
93 percent of visitors listed leisure as the primary purpose
Tourism to the region is seasonal: 47.5 percent of visits are in summer and 91 percent of
visits are in the spring, summer, and fall.
Average spending was $1,003 per party per stay or $93 per person per daily.
Shopping/Gifts/Souvenirs accounted for $67 per party per visit.
36 percent of overnight visitors shopped during their stay. The second most popular
activity behind visiting beaches.
The top states of visitor origin were: North Carolina (37.9%), Virginia (14.5%), and
Pennsylvania (8.1%)
42.5 percent of visitors reported household income over $75,000 and 12 percent over
$125,000
State research also illustrates the relative volumes of the economic impact of tourism between
counties via the North Carolina Department of Commerce’s study The Economic Impact Of
Travel On North Carolina Counties, which was prepared for the North Carolina Division of
Tourism, Film and Sports Development by the US Travel Association. For Craven, Carteret, and
Onslow counties the economic impact of tourism in 2011 was $590.4 million. This represents
direct visitor spending estimates, county level employment, payroll, and tax revenues as a result
of direct visitor spending. For comparison, Buncombe County, home of Asheville, and Dare
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County, home of Nag’s Head, reported economic impacts of $783.0 million and $877.2 million
respectively. In 2011, the Buncombe County Tourism Department reported three million
overnight visitors and 9.35 million total visitors. Based on the above data, the overnight visitor
market to the region is estimated at two million visitors annually.
SALES POTENTIAL AND MARKET SHARE
Market share is reported for the effective trade area and its components, which is expected to
account for 50 percent of center sales for 2015 - the first full year of center operations.
Market Share and Sales Potential
Craven Thirty – Effective Trade Area
2015
Effective Trade Area GAFO Exp.
GLA
200,000
250,000
300,000
$1,791.3 mil
Productivity
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
Sales (S Mil.)
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
$31.3
$37.5
$43.8
$37.5
$45.0
$52.5
Market Share
1.4%
1.7%
2.0%
1.7%
2.1%
2.4%
2.1%
2.5%
2.9%
Source: Market Analysis And Research
Craven Thirty will need to capture between 1.4 percent of the effective trade area’s GAFO
expenditure potential to support sales of $200 psf at 200,000 square feet of gla to 2.9 percent to
support sales of $350 psf at 300,000 square feet. Due to the large area covered by the effective
trade area, in Market Analysis And Research’s opinion, market shares in the low two percent
range are attainable
Examining the Craven Thirty visitor market, and assuming that 50 percent of sales will come
from outside the residential trade area, the following spends per visitor are required to meet three
productivity levels: $250 per square foot, $300 per square foot, and $350 per square foot. The
number of overnight visitors in the market area is conservatively assumed to be two million
annually.
The spend per overnight visitor required to support the above productivities ranges from $12.50
per visitor to support $200 psf at 200,000 square feet of gla to $26.25 per visitors to support sales
of $350 psf at 300,000 square feet. Market Analysis And Research believes that the visitor
market can support productivities in line with the residential market: between $250 and $300 psf
at 200,000 to 250,000 square feet, or $12.50 to $18.75 per overnight visitor.
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PROS AND CONS OF CRAVEN THIRTY
PROS
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Excellent visibility on US-70
Access to visitors to Crystal Coast and New Bern
Lack of full-price and value-oriented retail competition in New Bern
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Smaller primary residential market than Greenville and Jacksonville
Moderate levels of affluence
Low population density close to the site
CONS
CONCLUSIONS
Following the preceding report, Market Analysis And Research offer the following findings on
the feasibility of outlet retail at the Craven Thirty development in New Bern, NC.
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The Craven Thirty site benefits from excellent visibility on US-70, the main route
between Raleigh and I-95 to the west and the Crystal Coast to the east.
Additionally, the site is well situated to serve the New Bern market with excellent
regional access and a location proximate to the main retail corridor in the city.
Retail competition in New Bern and the surrounding communities does not
include significant outlet retail, and New Bern is currently exporting retail sales to
the surrounding region.
The center is well positioned to serve the large visitor market to New Bern and
the Crystal Coast.
However, there are two main concerns regarding outlet retail at the Craven Thirty site:
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The ability to attract national retail to New Bern, North Carolina.
Craven Thirty needs to successfully draw from the resident population of
surrounding communities including Jacksonville and Greenville which are the
most populous and support more vibrant retail markets but currently have inferior
connections to the site than Kinston and Morehead City.
In conclusion, Craven Thirty presents a good opportunity to develop a productive, mid-sized
outlet center in eastern Carolina.
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SECTION II
MARKET CONDITIONS
REGIONAL CONTEXT
As shown in Figure 1 below, Craven Thirty is located in the northeast quadrant of the US-70 and
SR-43 interchange in New Bern, North Carolina. The site is five miles to the west of downtown
New Bern, North Carolina.
Figure 1 - Craven Thirty - Site and Vicinity
To a certain extent, the success of the center will depend on the health of the broader regional
economy it serves. The site is located in the New Bern, NC mSA (Micropolitan Statistical Area),
which is comprised of Craven County, Jones County, and Pamlico County in eastern North
Carolina. The New Bern, NC mSA is connected to the broader eastern Carolina region that
includes the following three micropolitan statistical areas and two metropolitan statistical areas:
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Morehead City mSA (Carteret County)
Jacksonville MSA (Onslow County)
Kinston mSA (Lenoir County)
Greenville MSA (Pitt County and Greene County)
Washington mSA (Beaufort County)
The six areas are referred to as the Eastern Carolina region in Tables 1 to 4 and are shown in
Figure 2 below:
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Figure 2 - Craven Thirty - Eastern Carolina Region
Tables 1 to 4 report the broad demographic and economic characteristics of the region and more
detailed economic characteristics of the New Bern mSA. In summary:
1. Combined, the broader region contained an estimated 681,000 persons and 264,000
households in 2012. Between 2000 and 2012 the region’s population increased at an
annual rate of 1.3 percent compared to 0.9 percent nationally. (Table 1)
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In 2012, the New Bern mSA contained 114,800 persons and 51,000 households.
There were 2.42 persons per household, and the median age was 38.0 years old.
Civilian employment was 50,000 persons, and the average household income was
$57,284.
In the Morehead City mSA, the 2012 population was an estimated 68,300
persons, and there were an estimated 29,700 households. The median age was
46.2 years old, and there were 2.26 persons per household. Civilian employment
numbered 31,300, and the average household income was $60,232.
The Jacksonville MSA contained 181,700 persons and 61,600 households with
2.66 persons per households. The median age in the metro was 26.4 years, and the
average household income was $54,216. The civilian labor force numbered
59,100 persons.
The Kinston mSA contained an estimated 59,200 persons and 24,200 households
in 2012. There were 2.39 persons per household with a median age of 41.2 years.
The average household income was $46,721, and the civilian labor force
numbered 25,000 persons.
The Greenville metro contained 195,900 persons and 77,600 households in 2012.
There were 2.41 persons per household in the metro, and the average household
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income was $53,238. The median age in the metro was 32.2, and civilian
employment numbered 91,300 households.
The Washington mSA contained 47,600 persons and 19,900 households in 2012.
The median age was 44.2, and the average household income was $53,575.
The Greenville and Jacksonville metro areas are significantly larger than the four
micropolitan areas. Morehead has the oldest population and the highest average
household income. Greenville and Jacksonville, with students and military
personnel, are significantly younger than the region as a whole.
As expected, seasonal housing is more prevalent along the coast than inland. In
the 2010 Census, 3.5 percent of housing units in the United States were classified
as for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use. In the Eastern Carolina region
the 2010 Census reports:
Geographic Area
New Bern mSA
Morehead City mSA
Greenville MSA
Jacksonville MSA
Kinston mSA
Washington mSA
Number of Housing Units
Percent of Total
2,016
15,402
415
3,914
171
2,343
3.5%
32.0%
0.5%
5.7%
0.6%
9.5%
Source: 2010 U.S. Census
2. In 2011, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the civilian labor force of
the New Bern mSA numbered 52,700 persons and employment numbered 46,900
persons resulting in an unemployment rate of 10.9 percent. (Table 2)
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The civilian labor force expanded at an annual rate of 1.0 percent a year between
1995 and 2011. During the same period, employment expanded at 0.6 percent a
year. The unemployment rate in New Bern rose from 4.2 percent in 2000 to 10.9
percent in 2011.
The Jacksonville MSA reported the fastest growth rates in both the civilian labor
force, 2.8 percent a year, and employment, 2.4 percent a year, between 1995 and
2011.
The lowest growth rates were in the Kinston mSA. Between 1995 and 2011, the
civilian labor force declined at 0.3 percent a year and employment declined at 0.6
percent a year. Kinston was the only region in the study area to report negative
employment growth over the period.
The following table reports the most recently available unemployment rates in
New Bern and the larger region.
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Regional Unemployment Rates
Morehead City mSA
Jacksonville MSA
Kinston mSA
Greenville MSA
Washington mSA
New Bern mSA
North Carolina
Oct. 2012
7.7%
8.1%
9.5%
9.2%
10.0%
9.2%
8.8%
Nov. 2012
8.3%
8.3%
9.7%
9.2%
10.3%
9.5%
9.0%
Dec. 2012 (p)
9.3%
8.8%
10.2%
9.6%
11.1%
10.0%
9.5%
Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, data retrieved February 17, 2013
3. In 2011, according to the American Community Survey the most prevalent
occupation in the New Bern mSA was management, business, science, and arts
occupations which accounted for 29.9 percent of civilian employment, and the largest
class of worker was private wage and salary workers which accounted for 69.8
percent. (Table 3)
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Occupations in the New Bern mSA in 2011, from most common to least common
were: management, business, science, and arts occupations (14,300 persons);
sales and office occupations (10,700 persons); service occupations (9,800
persons); natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations (7,000
persons); and production, transportation, and material moving occupations (6,000
persons).
The two most prevalent classes of worker in 2011 were: private wage and salary
workers (33,400 persons) and government workers (11,400 persons).
4. According to the American Community Survey, the largest industries for employment
in the New Bern micropolitan area in 2011 were educational services, and health
care and social assistance with 23.8 percent of civilian employment and retail trade
with 10.9 percent. (Table 4)
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Combined, services account for 45.6 percent of total civilian employment in the
New Bern mSA. Broken down, 23.8 percent in educational services, and health
care and social assistance; 10.3 percent in arts, entertainment, and recreation, and
accommodation and food services; 6.9 percent in professional, scientific, and
management, and administrative and waste management services; and, 4.6 percent
in other services, except public administration.
Other major categories of employment include retail trade with 10.9 percent of
employment and public administration with 10.8 percent.
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Civilian Employment by Industry
New Bern, mSA – 2011
Source: American Community Survey
Major employers in New Bern include: BSH Home Appliances Corporation, Hatteras Yachts,
and CarolinaEast Health System
Major military installations in the region include Camp Lejeune - 40 miles to the south of Craven
Thirty, MCAS at Cherry Point - 21 miles to the southeast of Craven Thirty, and MCAS New
River - 34 miles to the southwest of Craven Thirty:
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According to the U.S. Marine Corps, in 2011, the total workforce at MCAS at
Cherry Point numbered 14,915 and included 9,554 active military personnel and
5,361 civilians. The military estimates the economic impact of the base at $2.0
billion dollars with $1.3 billion dollars of this in salaries.
At Camp Lejeune, there were 45,722 active-duty Marines as well as civilian
employment of 5,857 persons. The estimated economic impact of the base was
$4.3 billion with salaries of $2.7 billion.
At MCAS New River, the total workforce in 2011 numbered 7,584 and included
7,007 active military personnel and 577 civilians. The estimated economic impact
of the base was $512.3 million, with salaries accounting for $402.4 million of this
total.
CRAVEN THIRTY
The Craven Thirty site, as shown in Figure 3 below, is in the northeastern quadrant of the US-70
and SR-43 interchange in New Bern, North Carolina.
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Plans call for mixed-use development on the 530-acre site. In addition to retail, plans call for
single-family residential, multi-family residential, town homes, office and institutional space, a
medical park, and restaurant/hotel pads. The possibilities of additional uses for the site are being
explored, including a proposal to add a movie studio to the site.
The site has excellent visibility and access to US-70. The broader region contains a retail
corridor along US-17, three miles from the site, multiple military installations, and Craven
Community College.
REGIONAL ACCESS
The Craven Thirty site is well located to both New Bern and the region as a whole. US-70
connects the site with downtown New Bern five miles to the east of the site. West of the site,
US-70 connects Craven Thirty to Kinston (27 miles) and I-95 (71 miles). To the east, US-70
continues past New Bern to Havelock (22 miles) and Morehead City (36 miles).
SR-43 runs north from Craven Thirty to its merge with US-17, 8.5 miles to the north of the site.
US-17 continues north to Washington, North Carolina (29 miles north of Craven Thirty), and
SR-43 continues north to Greenville, North Carolina (36 miles northwest of Craven Thirty).
Approximately one mile to the west of the site is the US-17 bypass and US-70 interchange. The
bypass re-connects with US-17 six miles south of the site and continues to Jacksonville, North
Carolina (31 miles southwest of the site).
US-70 is a limited-access highway between the site and downtown New Bern. From New Bern
to Morehead City it is a divided, four-lane highway. US-17 is a partial divided four-lane highway
between Jacksonville and the site.
Average Annual Daily Traffic counts from the North Carolina Department of Transportation for
2011 highlight the importance of US-17 as a commercial corridor in the region:
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30,000 vehicles on US-70 east of SR-43 (2010 AADT)
7,100 vehicles on SR-43 between US-70 and SR-55
27,000 vehicles on US-17 south of US-70
13,000 vehicles on US-17, three exits west of the site at SR-41 (this is the closest
count to the site on US-70)
Two road-improvement projects will provide Craven Thirty with enhanced regional connectivity:
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US-17 widening to a four-lane divided highway between the US-17 bypass and
Jacksonville will be completed, providing better connections to the Jacksonville
component of the trade area. Construction is slated to begin in 2015.
The “Reach the Beach” or “Super 70 Corridor” project for US-70 involves
improving access from Raleigh to Morehead City by making US-70 a limited
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access highway. Future projects include adding bypasses at Havelock, Kinston,
and Goldsboro.
BUSINESS GENERATORS FOR CRAVEN THIRTY
Craven Thirty is expected to generate sales from residents in the residential trade area and
visitors to the region.
RESIDENTIAL TRADE AREA
In defining the residential trade area for Craven Thirty, Market Analysis And Research
considered the following:
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Access conditions to the site
Demographic conditions
Retail competition
As shown in Figure 3, the residential trade area is comprised of four components:
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The Primary Trade Area composed of New Bern, Havelock, and Kinston.
The Morehead City Component is comprised of Morehead City, Atlantic Beach,
Emerald Isle and Beauport in Carteret County. This sector is connected to the site
via US-70.
The Jacksonville Component, which is centered on Jacksonville and Camp
Lejeune, and is connected to the site by US-17.
The Northern Component contains Washington and Greenville, North Carolina.
SR-43 and US-17 connect the northern component to the site.
Figure 3 - Craven Thirty - Residential Trade Area
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Together these four components form the effective residential trade area – shown in Figure Four
below. As composed, the trade area extends 41 miles to the north, 50 miles to the east, 40 miles
to the south, and 33 miles to the west, and the trade area is forecast to provide 50 percent of total
center sales. Centers previously studied by Market Analysis And Research in visitor/beach
markets with a population base similar to the subject region draw around 40 percent of center
sales from within their residential trade area. A slightly higher percentage of sales at Craven
Thirty is forecast due to the extent of the trade area – extending outwards of 60 minutes in places
– and the limited retail competition in the primary trade area.
The primary trade area contains the following 17 zip codes and is expected to account for 25
percent of center sales.
Primary Trade Area
ZIP 28501 – Kinston
ZIP 28504 – Kinston
ZIP 28510 – Arapahoe
ZIP 28515 – Bayboro
ZIP 28523 - Cove City
ZIP 28526 – Dover
ZIP 28527 - Ernul
ZIP 28529 - Grantsboro
ZIP 28532 - Havelock
ZIP 28555 - Maysville
ZIP 28556 - Merritt
ZIP 28560 - New Bern
ZIP 28571 – Oriental
ZIP 28573 – Pollocksville
ZIP 28585 – Trenton
ZIP 28586 – Vanceboro
The Morehead City Component, which contains 15 zip codes, is forecast to account for 10
percent of sales.
Morehead City Component
ZIP 28511 – Atlantic
ZIP 28512 - Atlantic Beach
ZIP 28516 – Beaufort
ZIP 28520 - Cedar Island
ZIP 28524 – Davis
ZIP 28528 - Gloucester
ZIP 28531 - Harkers Island
ZIP 28553 - Marshallberg
ZIP 28557 - Morehead City
ZIP 28570 - Newport
ZIP 28577 - Sealevel
ZIP 28579 - Smyrna
ZIP 28581 - Stacy
ZIP 28584 - Swansboro
ZIP 28594 - Emerald Isle
The Jacksonville Component is expected to account for 10 percent of sales and contains 7 zip
codes.
Jacksonville Component
ZIP 28539 – Hubert
ZIP 28540 – Jacksonville
ZIP 28544 - Midway Park
ZIP 28546 - Jacksonville
ZIP 28547 - Camp Lejeune
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ZIP 28574 - Richlands
ZIP 28582 - Stella
The Northern Component will account for 5 percent of center sales from 11 zip codes.
Northern Component
ZIP 27806 – Aurora
ZIP 27814 - Blounts Creek
ZIP 27817 – Chocowinity
ZIP 27821 – Edward
ZIP 27834 - Greenville
ZIP 27837 - Grimesland
ZIP 27889 - Washington
ZIP 28513 - Ayden
ZIP 28530 - Grifton
ZIP 28590 - Winterville
RESIDENTIAL TRADE AREA POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS
Tables 5 and 6 report the population and household totals and trends for the effective residential
trade area, its components, the New Bern mSA, and the United States.
Population and Household Totals
Craven Thirty
Effective Residential Trade Area
Source: SCANUS, Market Analysis And Research
The effective residential trade area contained an estimated 600,100 persons and 232,800
household in 2012. The estimated population and household totals for the four trade area
components were:
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172,600 persons and 69,000 households in the Primary Trade Area
72,800 persons and 31,600 households in the Morehead City Component
153,900 persons and 51,000 households in the Jacksonville Component
200,800 persons and 81,300 households in the Northern Component
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The effective residential trade area is significantly smaller than residential trade areas previously
studied by Market Analysis And Research for outlet malls located in larger metropolitan areas,
for example Houston Premium Outlets in Cypress, Texas and Tanger Outlets Locust Grove in
suburban Atlanta, where trade areas contain 1,500,000 persons and up. However, the residential
trade area is similar to other outlet centers serving coastal communities in the mid-Atlantic and
southeast, for example Tanger Outlets Hilton Head or Myrtle Beach.
Tables 5 and 6 also report:
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Between 2000 and 2012, the effective residential trade area added 99,500 persons
and grew at an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent, significantly higher
than the national rate of 0.9. From 2012 to 2017, the area is forecast to add an
additional 31,900 persons at an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent.
The number of households in the effective residential trade area increased at an
average annual rate of 1.8 percent a year from 2000 to 2012. From 2012 to 2017,
the area is forecast to add an additional 15,000 households, at an average annual
rate of 1.3 percent a year.
Between 2000 and 2012, the fastest growing component of the effective trade area
was the Northern Component, which grew at 2.1 percent a year. The slowest
growing component was the Primary Trade Area component that added
population at 0.9 percent a year – the same as the national rate.
From 2012 to 2017, both the Northern Component and the Morehead City
Component are forecast to add population at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent
a year, the Jacksonville Component is forecast to grow at 1.0 percent a year, and
the Primary Trade Area Component is forecast to grow at 0.7 percent a year.
Figure 4 shows forecast population growth between 2012 and 2017 in the study area. Areas in
white are forecast to see a decline in population from 2012 to 2017. The darker the shade of
purple the more population growth, percent-wise, forecast.
14
Figure 4 - Craven Thirty - Percent Population Change (2012 - 2017)
RESIDENTIAL TRADE AREA INCOME CHARACTERISTICS
Tables 7, 8, and 9 report the income characteristics and trends for the effective residential trade
area, its components, the New Bern mSA, and the United States.
Income Characteristics
Craven Thirty
15
In 2012, the effective residential trade area reported per capita income of an estimated $21,871
and average household income of $55,038. This is below the national averages of $27,068 and
$70,968 respectively. Within the four components of the trade area per capita income and
average household income were estimated at:
Per Capita and Average Household Income
Craven Thirty
Residential Trade Area Sectors
Sector
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
2012 Per Capita Income
$22,155
$26,200
$19,291
$22,035
2012 Avg. Hhold Inc.
$54,552
$60,041
$54,373
$53,917
The Morehead City Component has the highest estimated per capita income and average
household income and the Northern Component reported the lowest. It is important to note the
following when comparing income levels in the subject area with national averages:


The lower cost of living in the region than nationally; and,
The higher than average number of military personnel in the trade area,
particularly the Jacksonville Component.
Figure 5 below reports average household income by block group in the study area.
Figure 5 - Craven Thirty - 2012 Average Household Income
16
Tables 7, 8, and 9 also report:








Per capita income in the effective trade area increased at an average annual rate of
1.9 percent a year from $17,543 in 2000 to $21,871 in 2012. Nationally per capita
income increased at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent between 2000 and 2012.
The Jacksonville component of the trade area increased at the highest rate, 2.2
percent a year, between 2000 and 2012. The Northern Component had the slowest
growth rate: 1.7 percent a year.
Between 2012 and 2017 per capita income for the effective trade area is forecast
to grow to $23,113 – an average annual rate of 1.1 percent, which is slightly
higher than the national forecast of 0.8 percent.
Average household income in the effective trade area increased from $44,488 in
2000 to an estimated $55,038 in 2012 representing an average annual growth rate
of 1.8 percent. The national rate between 2000 and 2012 was 1.9 percent a year.
Average household income is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9
percent between 2012 and 2017, equal to the national rate, and reach $57,677 in
2017.
In 2012, there were 29,700 households in the effective trade area (12.8 percent of
total households) earned more than $100,000. Nationally, 21.6 percent of
households earned more than $100,000 in 2012. Additionally, 23.4 percent of
total households (54,400 households) earned more than $75,000 in 2012
compared to 33.5 percent nationally.
The Morehead City Component had the highest percentage of $100,000 plus
households at 14.6 percent, and the Northern Component had the highest number
of households: 10,700 households.
A look at the median list price of homes in the effective trade area, from Zillow,
shows a wide range of price points in the trade area. As expected, the higher price
points tend to be found along the coast. Foreclosures can impact certain zip codes
adversely and can lead to large swings in list prices month to month, so the
following price points serve only as a general overview of the market.
Primary Trade Area
Median List Price – December 2012
ZIP 28501 - Kinston
ZIP 28504 - Kinston
ZIP 28510 - Arapahoe
ZIP 28515 - Bayboro
ZIP 28523 - Cove City
ZIP 28526 - Dover
ZIP 28527 - Ernul
ZIP 28529 - Grantsboro
ZIP 28532 - Havelock
$75,000
$129,900
$239,900
$197,000
Na
$39,900
Na
$99,500
$136,000
ZIP 28555 - Maysville
ZIP 28556 - Merritt
ZIP 28571 – Oriental
ZIP 28573 – Pollocksville
ZIP 28585 – Trenton
ZIP 28586 – Vanceboro
Source: www.zillow.com, data retrieved 2/17/2013
17
$149,900
$224,500
$169,900
$179,900
$265,500
$150,000
$119,900
$126,000
ZIP 28511 - Atlantic
ZIP 28512 - Atlantic Beach
ZIP 28516 - Beaufort
ZIP 28520 - Cedar Island
ZIP 28524 - Davis
ZIP 28528 - Gloucester
ZIP 28531 - Harkers Island
ZIP 28553 - Marshallberg
$180,000
$325,000
$230,000
Na
na
$185,000
$289,000
$129,900
ZIP 28557 - Morehead City
ZIP 28570 - Newport
ZIP 28577 - Sealevel
ZIP 28579 - Smyrna
ZIP 28581 - Stacy
ZIP 28584 - Swansboro
ZIP 28594 - Emerald Isle
$229,900
$189,900
$130,000
$182,000
$115,500
$229,500
$375,000
ZIP 28539 - Hubert
ZIP 28544 - Midway Park
$168,000
$159,900
$129,900
$158,900
ZIP 28547 - Camp Lejeune
ZIP 28574 - Richlands
ZIP 28582 - Stella
na
$156,900
$184,500
Northern Component
ZIP 27806 - Aurora
ZIP 27814 - Blounts Creek
ZIP 27817 - Chocowinity
ZIP 27821 - Edward
ZIP 27837 - Grimesland
$129,900
$120,000
$299,900
na
$90,000
$164,900
ZIP 27889 - Washington
ZIP 28513 - Ayden
ZIP 28530 - Grifton
ZIP 28590 - Winterville
18
$139,500
$149,800
$100,000
$78,900
$149,900
RESIDENTIAL TRADE AREA MOSAIC PROFILE
MOSAIC Profile
Craven Thirty
Source: SCANUS, Experian, Market Analysis And Research
A MOSAIC Profile of the Effective Trade Area reveals three MOSAIC Groups with
significantly higher percentages of total households than the national average:



Group F: Promising Families – contains 12.7 percent of total households in the
trade area (32,900 households), compared to 3.4 percent nationally.
Group N: Pastoral Pride – contains 18.7 percent of total households in the trade
area (48,300 households), compared to 7.3 percent nationally.
Group O: Singles & Starters – accounts for 17.8 percent of total households
(46,000 households) in the Effective Trade Area, compared to 8.8 percent
nationally.
Brief descriptions of the above-mentioned MOSAIC Groups, from Experian, are below:

Group F: Promising Families - Young couples with children in starter homes
living child-centered lifestyles. Promising Families consist mainly of Generation
Yers who’ve married, moved into their first homes, and started families. With
three-quarters under the age of 35, these predominantly white households live in
small homes in affordable new subdivisions. In the two segments that make up
this group, most of the adults are recently married, new to the workforce, and
raising young children, who are mostly of pre-school age. In this group, the
19


American dream is characterized by a computer in the family room, a trampoline
in the backyard, and an SUV and multiple bikes in the garage. Promising Families
are found in the rapidly growing towns and small cities of the West and South;
one segment has a high concentration living in military base communities like
Quantico, Va., Camp Lejeune, N.C., and Colorado Springs, Colo. Most of their
homes are modern ranches, bungalows, and split-foyer houses that were built
since 2000. However, because of their locations on the outer edge of the urban
sprawl, the housing is affordable, with below-average values. While they’ve
typically been at their current address for fewer than five years, these young
families have quickly come to appreciate their safe subdivisions, new schools,
abundant ball fields, and convenient discount retailers. The educational
achievements among Promising Families members are above average, with onethird of household heads having either bachelor’s or graduate degrees. That level
of schooling translates to a wide variety of occupations - from business,
technology, and the military to science and homemaking. Though most of the
adults are earning only entry-level pay, the dual-income households have enough
disposable cash to lead rich leisure lives.
Group N: Pastoral Pride - Eclectic mix of lower middle-class widowed and
divorced individuals and couples who have settled in country and small town
areas. The four segments in Pastoral Pride are concentrated in small, country
towns and characterized by ethnically-mixed, modestly-educated, middle-aged
couples and divorced and widowed individuals. Few households have children
still at home. Having settled in remote villages and towns far from the urban
centers, they enjoy their homes, their sleepy country communities, and their
steady, blue-collar and service-sector jobs. In their communities where solitude
and self-reliance are cherished, they’ve managed to fashion a simple,
unpretentious lifestyle. Pastoral Pride are scattered across America’s rural
landscape, although most are found in isolated communities in the South and
Midwest. Eight out of ten households own their homes, which tend to be modest
ranch houses, farmhouses, and mobile homes built during the last century. While
their lots tend to be large, their properties are valued at only half the national
average. Most have lived at the same address for over six years, and they show
little desire to move on. With their low mortgages and limited expenses, many can
devote more money to fancier trucks or muscle cars, typically bought used and
retrofitted to handle the rugged roads.
Group O: Singles and Starters - Young singles starting out, and some starter
families, in diverse urban communities. The six segments in Singles and Starters
contain downscale Generation Yers with upwardly mobile aspirations.
Concentrated in small cities across the country, these households tend to be young
(nearly three-quarters are under the age of 35), ethnically-mixed, and unattached
(half are single while a quarter are single parents). Most are on their own and
starting to build independent lives in apartments with other young singles.
They’re college-educated, though not necessarily college graduates, and many are
toiling away at entry-level positions in service-sector jobs. These self-described
workaholics share a desire to move up in status, and they realize that every career
20
journey starts with a first step. Singles and Starters live in satellite cities across
the country, including a number of college towns like Madison, Wis., Austin,
Texas, Bloomington, Ind., and Tallahassee, Fla. Housing costs are low - the price
of a house is a third below the national average - but most residents rent units in
low- and high-rise apartment buildings that were built during the last three
decades. Many are attracted to the college-town atmosphere of their communities
with their commercial landscape of boutiques, pizza joints, cinemas, and
bookstores. However, these Americans are typically living in their first
apartments, and they’re hardly committed to staying in their neighborhoods for
any length of time. Three-quarters have lived at the same address for fewer than
three years.
The MOSAIC profile differs between the trade area components. A full breakdown of the
MOSAIC profile for each of the trade area components and the effective trade area is in Table
10. In brief, the following groups report incidences that are at least 50 percent above the national
average in the trade area components:
Primary Trade Area
Group N: Pastoral Pride – 25.3 percent
Group L: Blue Sky Boomers – 12.2 percent
Group F: Promising Families – 40.3 percent
Group O: Singles and Starters – 15.8 percent
Northern Component
Group L: Blue Sky Boomers – 14.9 percent
Group E: Thriving Boomers – 13.3 percent
Group Q: Golden Year Guardians – 13.0
percent
Group O: Singles and Starters – 29.3 percent
Group G: Young City Solos – 3.3 percent
RESIDENTIAL TRADE AREA GAFO EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
Table 11 reports the GAFO expenditure potential within the estimated trade area at Craven
Thirty. GAFO merchandise categories include goods sold at general merchandise (G) stores,
apparel and accessories’ (A) stores, furniture and home furnishing (F) retailers, and
miscellaneous shopping goods (O) stores, as defined by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Such
merchandise categories disproportionately represent the types of goods sold at department stores
and among retailers at regional malls, lifestyle centers, and outlet centers.
21
GAFO Expenditure Potential
Craven Thirty
Current Dollars (Mil.)
As reported, GAFO expenditure potential in the effective trade area increased from $1.1 billion
in 2000 to an estimated $1.7 billion in 2012, an average annual rate of 3.4 percent. Nationally,
GAFO expenditure potential increased at 2.9 percent a year between 2000 and 2012.
From 2012 to 2022, GAFO expenditure potential in the effective trade area is forecast to increase
from $1.7 billion to $2.1 billion – an average annual rate of 2.2 percent a year compared with 1.7
percent nationally.
In 2012, the trade area components reported the following GAFO expenditure potential:




Primary Trade Area - $489.4 million
Morehead City Component - $244.2 million
Jacksonville Component - $380.1 million
Northern Component - $566.3 million
The northern component reported the highest growth rate, 3.9 percent, between 2000 and 2012,
and the primary trade area component reported the slowest annual growth, 2.7 percent, between
2000 and 2012. From 2012 to 2022, the northern component is forecast to see the highest GAFO
expenditure potential growth rate: 2.5 percent.
22
VISITOR MARKET
As is common for smaller cities, research on the visitor market is limited in New Bern. However,
data published by the state of North Carolina in their 2011 North Carolina Regional Travel
Summary provides an insight into the size of the region’s visitor market. In the report, the state is
divided into three regions. The easternmost 28 counties make up the coastal region. While, the
region extends outside of the expected tourism draw of the center, which is assumed to be
tourists to New Bern and the Crystal Coast in Carteret and Onslow Counties, the general visitor
profile is useful. In summary:











There were 7.5 million person-trips to the region in 2011
The average stay was 4.5 nights
The average party size was 2.4 persons
91 percent of visitors drove to the region
50 percent of visitors stayed in private residences, 35 percent stayed in a hotel/motel,
and 11 percent stayed in a timeshare/condo
93 percent of visitors listed leisure as the primary purpose
Tourism to the region is seasonal: 47.5 percent of visits are in summer and 91 percent of
visits are in the spring, summer, and fall.
Average spending was $1,003 per party per stay or $93 per person per daily.
Shopping/Gifts/Souvenirs accounted for $67 per party per visit.
36 percent of overnight visitors shopped during their stay. The second most popular
activity behind visiting beaches.
The top states of visitor origin were: North Carolina (37.9%), Virginia (14.5%), and
Pennsylvania (8.1%)
42.5 percent of visitors reported household income over $75,000 and 12 percent over
$125,000
State research also illustrates the relative volumes of the economic impact of tourism between
counties via the North Carolina Department of Commerce’s study The Economic Impact Of
Travel On North Carolina Counties, which was prepared for the North Carolina Division of
Tourism, Film, and Sports Development by the US Travel Association.
Economic Impact of Tourism – 2011
Selected North Carolina Counties
County
Carteret County
Craven County
Onslow County
Total
2011 ($ mil)
$278.7
$116.3
$195.4
2010 ($ mil)
$271.3
$108.3
$180.3
Percent Change
2.7%
7.4%
8.4%
$590.4
$559.9
5.5%
Source: US Travel Association
23
These numbers represent direct visitor spending estimates, county level employment, payroll,
and tax revenues as a result of direct visitor spending. For comparison, Buncombe County, home
of Asheville, and Dare County, home of Nag’s Head, reported economic impacts of $783.0
million and $877.2 million respectively. In 2011, the Buncombe County Tourism Department
reported 3 million overnight visitors and 9.35 million total visitors. Based on the above data, the
overnight visitor market to the region is estimated at two million visitors annually.
ANALOGOUS MARKETS
Market Analysis And Research examined four analogous markets to place the New Bern market
into context. These markets all contain outlet retail centers located in coastal communities in the
mid-Atlantic and southeast. They all depend on significant visitor sales to supplement the smaller
residential markets that they serve.




Myrtle Beach
Hilton Head
Nags Head
Foley
The residential markets in the analogs range from very small, Nags Head, to larger coastal
communities that draw from nearby metropolitan areas, Foley (Pensacola and Mobile). The
Craven Thirty site differs in that it will serve an amalgamation of smaller areas.
Selected Analogous Markets
Craven Thirty - 60-Minute Drive Time - 2012
Population
Foley, AL
Myrtle Beach
Nags Head
Hilton Head
New Bern
706,800
389,600
35,400
416,000
306,100
Households
Per Cap. Inc
281,700
163,300
14,900
160,100
121,100
$23,631
$24,039
$28,078
$25,052
$21,462
Avg. HH Inc.
Median Age
$58,381
$57,174
$66,473
$64,035
$53,574
40.3
43.1
46.0
40.3
39.4
Compared to the analog markets, the population within 60 minutes of Craven Thirty is slightly
less affluent and younger. The population of the area is similar to Myrtle Beach and Hilton Head
and is significantly smaller than Foley, Alabama.
Comparisons between visitor markets can be difficult due to different metrics and research
techniques. A brief summary of the visitor markets in the analogs shows:

Foley, Alabama reported 1.4 million visitors to the Alabama coast in 2008 and an
additional 3.7 million visitors to Pensacola with an economic impact of $1.2
billion.
24



The Myrtle Beach Chamber of Commerce estimated that the Grand Strand
received 14.5 million visitors in 2011.
As reported above, Nags Head, specifically Dare County, recorded nearly twice
the economic impact of Carteret and Onslow Counties in 2011.
According to the Hilton Head chamber of commerce, there are 2.5 million visitors
to Hilton Head – significantly smaller than the Savannah market. However,
Hilton Head is a beach destination that is likely to have longer-stay lengths than
Savannah, and longer visitor stays are more conducive to retail spending than
shorter visitor stays.
Broad conclusions from the analog markets and how they relate to the Craven Thirty site
include:



The amount of retail to be supported at Craven Thirty is smaller than Hilton Head
(two Tanger centers totaling 392,100 square feet), Myrtle Beach (two Tanger
centers totaling 828,800 square feet), and Foley, Alabama (557,000 square feet).
The resident population in the region is smaller but similar to Myrtle Beach and
Hilton Head.
The substantial visitor market to the region is amplified by the longer length of
stays reported by visitors to coastal North Carolina.
RETAIL COMPETITION
Retail in and around New Bern is a combination of regional malls, power centers, open-air
community centers, and small shops serving residents and visitors. A map of major retail centers
is found below in Figure 6.
The closest outlet retail to the site is Carolina Premium Outlets in Smithfield, North Carolina.
The Simon-owned center contains 440,000 square feet of gla built in multiple phases. Tenants at
the center include Adidas, Bose, Brooks Brothers, Coach, Gap Outlet, Loft Outlet, Skechers,
Timberland, and Under Armour. The center is located on I-95 and East Market Street and is 72
miles to the west of Craven Thirty.
Retail in New Bern is centered along US-17, south of US-70:



New Bern Mall is a single-level, enclosed regional mall located at US-17 and US70 in New Bern, North Carolina. JCPenney and Belk anchor the center. In line
tenants at the Hull Storey Gibson-owned mall include: TJMaxx, Michael’s, and
The Children’s Place. The mall has some vacancies and is weaker than the
regional malls in Jacksonville and Greenville.
Additional retail on the US-17 corridor in New Bern includes: Target, Wal-mart,
PetSmart, and Staples.
Downtown New Bern retail is primarily tourism oriented with local and specialty
operators.
Retail in Morehead City:
25

Crystal Coast Plaza is an open-air power center located at the intersection of US70 and SR-24 in Morehead City, North Carolina. SR-24 connects Morehead City
with Jacksonville. Tenants at the center include Best Buy, Staples, and Panera
Bread. The center is located 33 miles to the southeast of the subject site.
Retail in Jacksonville:


Jacksonville Mall is located in the southeastern quadrant of Country Club Road
and Western Boulevard in Jacksonville, North Carolina. The single-level enclosed
regional mall is owed by PREIT (Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust) and
contains nearly 500,000 square feet of gla. JCPenney, Belk, and Sears anchor the
mall, and in line tenants include Aeropostale, Buckle, Justice, and The Children’s
Place. The center is 29 miles to the southwest of the Craven Thirty site.
Western Boulevard in Jacksonville contains multiple open-air community centers.
National tenants along the retail corridor include Old Navy, Sam’s Club, and Best
Buy. Western Boulevard connects US-17 and SR-24.
Retail in Kinston:

Vernon Park Mall is a struggling regional mall anchored by jcpenney and Belk in
Kinston, North Carolina. The mall is located on Hardee Road, 29 miles to the
west of the Craven Thirty site.
Retail in Washington:

There is a Belk and large format, national retail on Carolina Road to the northwest
of downtown Washington. Downtown retail is limited and contains small, mom
and pop stores.
Retail in Greenville:



Greenville Mall is a single-level, enclosed regional mall anchored by jcpenney
and Belk. Jones Lang Lasalle manage the 460,000-square foot center. In line
tenants include Aeropostale, Buckle, and Gymboree. There is one vacant box at
the center. The mall is located at the intersection of Greenville Boulevard and
Arlington Boulevard in Greenville and is 34 miles to the northwest of the Craven
Thirty site.
Arlington Plaza, opposite Arlington Boulevard from Greenville Mall, is an openair community center with a Talbots and Jos. A. Bank.
University Commons, at the intersection of Evans Street and Greenville
Boulevard, contains a Barnes & Noble, TJ Maxx, and Dressbarn.
26
Figure 6 - Craven Thirty - Retail Competition
METRO AREA RETAIL SALES
Tables 12, 13, and 14 report metro area retail sales from the 2007 Census of Retail Trade – the
most recent available. In summary:




In 2007, the New Bern mSA reported total GAFO sales of $278.8 million dollars
from 156 establishments. The largest category of GAFO sales was General
Merchandise with $177.7 million in sales from 25 establishments followed by
Miscellaneous with $41.6 million in sales from 61 establishments, Apparel &
Accessories with $33.1 million from 38 establishments, and Furniture & Home
Furnishings with $26.3 million from 32 establishments. (Table 12)
The GAFO retail market structure in the New Bern mSA shows that sales per
store in the micropolitan area are 34 percent below the national average, sales per
capita are 39 percent below the national average, and stores per capita are 7
percent below national average. (Table 13)
Reported GAFO sales from the remaining metropolitan and micropolitan areas
analyzed were: $282.1 million in the Morehead City mSA; $607.5 million in the
Jacksonville MSA; $601.3 million in the Greenville MSA; and, $156.6 million in
the Kinston mSA. The majority of GAFO sales for the Washington mSA were
withheld due to their small size.
Using per capita income from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, an importexport analysis was performed comparing expected GAFO sales and reported
GAFO sales. Full data from the analysis is in Table 14, in summary:
27
Import/Export Analysis
Eastern Carolina
Area
New Bern
Morehead City
Jacksonville
Kinston
Greenville
Total
Expected
GAFO sales
Actual GAFO
sales
$393
$222
$574
$170
$417
$279
$282
$608
$157
$601
$1,876
$1,926
Import/Export
(41%)
21%
5%
(9%)
14%
3%
Source: Census of Retail Trade, Market Analysis And Research
While the New Bern mSA is exporting significant retail sales, the region as a whole is relatively
balanced. The analysis squares with observations from the market with more dynamic regional
malls in Jacksonville and Greenville, which both import sales, and Morehead City with its large
tourism base. In large tourist markets it is common to see an import of GAFO sales, which
allows for some upside in growing the GAFO retail market in the region through unique retail
offerings.
28
SECTION III
SALES POTENTIAL
RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
The Craven Thirty site is located in the northeastern quadrant of US-70 and SR-43 in New Bern,
North Carolina. The site is five miles to the west of downtown New Bern.
WREDCO is developing the site. Current plans call for a retail component, multi-family
residential, commercial space, and other uses on the 530-acre site. Market Analysis And
Research is examining the site for its potential to support outlet retail.
The tenant mix at the outlet center is assumed to be Mid-America brands such as American
Eagle, dressbarn, Justice, and New York & Company with a small subset of better fashion outlet
retail common at other centers in the region.
Market Analysis And Research examined square footages between 200,000 and 300,000 square
feet for outlet retail. The minimum size required to generate a critical mass is considered to be
200,000 square feet, and, as shown in the sales potential and market share section below, gla
above 300,000 square feet runs into unsupportable market shares at desired productivities.
The center is planned to open in 2014 with 2015 as the first full year of operations.
SALES ASSUMPTIONS
Market Analysis And Research assumed the following in assessing the potential of outlet retail at
Craven Thirty:



There would be no new competitive centers in the region throughout the study
period.
The center would open in 2014, with 2015 the first full year of center operations.
The center would lease to the level described in the above retail development
section.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET SALES POTENTIAL AND MARKET SHARE
Sales potential for outlet retail at Craven Thirty was assessed in terms of the overall share of the
effective residential trade area’s GAFO expenditure potential required to meet three sales
productivity levels:



$250 per square foot
At three square footages:
29



200,000 square feet
250,000 square feet
300,000 square feet
Market share is reported for the effective trade area and its components, which is expected to
account for 50 percent of center sales for 2015 - the first full year of center operations.
Craven Thirty – Effective Trade Area
2015
Effective Trade Area GAFO Exp.
GLA
200,000
250,000
300,000
$1,791.3 mil
Productivity
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
Sales (S Mil.)
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
$31.3
$37.5
$43.8
$37.5
$45.0
$52.5
Market Share
1.4%
1.7%
2.0%
1.7%
2.1%
2.4%
2.1%
2.5%
2.9%
Craven Thirty will need to capture between 1.4 percent of the effective trade area’s GAFO
expenditure potential to support sales of $200 psf at 200,000 square feet of gla to 2.9 percent to
support sales of $350 psf at 300,000 square feet. Due to the large area covered by the effective
trade area, in Market Analysis And Research’s opinion, market shares in the low two percent
range are attainable
Market shares within the trade area components are presented below. The Primary Trade Area is
forecast to account for 25 percent of center sales, the Morehead and Jacksonville components are
forecast to account for 10 percent of center sales each, and the Northern Component is forecast
to account for 5 percent. Component market shares are presented for 250,000 square feet of gla
for three productivity levels: $250, $300, and $350 per square foot.
30
Craven Thirty – Trade Area Components
2015
Component
GAFO Exp.
Primary Trade
$516.2
Morehead City
$260.8
Prod.
Sales
Sales
250,000 $250
250,000 $300
250,000 $350
$15.6
$18.8
$21.9
GLA
Mkt.
Share
3.0%
3.6%
4.2%
Mkt.
Share
2.4%
2.9%
3.4%
$6.3
$7.5
$8.8
Jacksonville
$404.4
Sales
$6.3
$7.5
$8.8
Mkt.
Share
1.6%
1.9%
2.2%
Northern
$609.8
Sales
$3.1
$3.8
$4.4
Mkt.
Share
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
Market shares vary by market. In previously studied outlet markets by Market Analysis And
Research in regions with lower populations and less retail competition, outlet malls have been
able to capture between 2.0 and 3.0 percent of market share. In outlet centers located in major
markets this market share falls to between 1.5 and 2.0 percent.
It is Market Analysis And Research’s opinion that development at Craven Thirty could support
between 200,000 and 250,000 square feet of outlet retail at productivities between $250 and
$300 psf.
VISITOR MARKET SALES POTENTIAL AND MARKET SHARE
Market Analysis And Research has been conservative in forecasting market penetration of
visitors to Craven Thirty due to the lack of confirmed data on visitor spending and outlet centers.
Nationally, according to the Urban Land Institute, visitors spend $104 per day on retail. This
definition of retail includes non-GAFO merchandise, but it starts to provide context to what is a
realistic expectation of spending per visitor. This dollar spend varies greatly from market to
market – for example visitors to New Orleans spend $38 per day on retail and visitors to Miami
$84 per day. In 2009, Charleston reported overnight visitors spent $39 on shopping. According
to the state of North Carolina, visitors to the coastal region spend $67 per party per visit – or $28
per person on shopping.
Examining the Craven Thirty visitor market, and assuming that 50 percent of sales will come
from outside the residential trade area, the following spends per visitor are required to meet three
productivity levels: $250 per square foot, $300 per square foot, and $350 per square foot. The
number of overnight visitors in the market area is conservatively assumed to be two million
annually.
31
Spend per Visitor
Craven Thirty
Square Feet
Productivity
Visitor Sales
Spend per
Overnight Visitor
($ Mil.)
200,000
250,000
300,000
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
$250 psf
$300 psf
$350 psf
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
$31.3
$37.5
$43.8
$37.5
$45.0
$52.5
$12.50
$15.00
$17.50
$15.63
$18.75
$21.88
$18.75
$22.50
$26.25
The spend per overnight visitor required to support the above productivities ranges from $12.50
per visitor to support $200 psf at 200,000 square feet of gla to $26.25 per visitors to support sales
of $350 psf at 300,000 square feet.
Market Analysis And Research believes that the visitor market can support productivities in line
with the residential market: between $250 and $300 psf at 200,000 to 250,000 square feet, or
$12.50 to $18.75 per overnight visitor.
PROS AND CONS OF CRAVEN THIRTY
PROS



Excellent visibility on US-70
Access to visitors to Crystal Coast and New Bern
Lack of full-price and value-oriented retail competition in New Bern



Smaller primary residential market than Greenville and Jacksonville
Moderate levels of affluence
Low population density close to the site
CONS
CONCLUSIONS
Following the preceding report, Market Analysis And Research offer the following findings on
the feasibility of outlet retail at the Craven Thirty development in New Bern, NC.
32




The Craven Thirty site benefits from excellent visibility on US-70, the main route
between Raleigh and I-95 to the west and the Crystal Coast to the east.
Additionally, the site is well situated to serve the New Bern market with excellent
regional access and a location proximate to the main retail corridor in the city.
Retail competition in New Bern and the surrounding communities does not
include significant outlet retail, and New Bern is currently exporting retail sales to
the surrounding region.
The center is well positioned to serve the large visitor market to New Bern and
the Crystal Coast.
However, there are two main concerns regarding outlet retail at the Craven Thirty site:


The ability to attract national retail to New Bern, North Carolina.
Craven Thirty needs to successfully draw from the resident population of
surrounding communities including Jacksonville and Greenville which are the
most populous and support more vibrant retail markets but currently have inferior
connections to the site than Kinston and Morehead City.
In conclusion, Craven Thirty presents a good opportunity to develop a productive, mid-sized
outlet center in eastern Carolina.
33
SECTION IV
TABLES
TABLE 1
NEW BERN, NC mSA
REGIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2000-2012
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
STATISTICAL AREAS
Year
1. Population (000)
New Bern
Value
2000
2012
114.8
129.0
2. Households (000) 2000
2012
43.8
51.0
C.A.R.
Morehead City
Value
1.0%
59.4
68.3
1.3%
25.2
29.7
C.A.R.
Jacksonville
Washington
Value
Value
1.2%
150.3
181.7
1.4%
48.1
61.6
C.A.R.
1.6%
45.0
47.6
2.1%
18.3
19.9
C.A.R.
Greenville
Value
0.5%
152.8
195.9
0.7%
59.3
77.6
C.A.R.
Kinston
Value
C.A.R.
581.9
681.6
1.3%
2.3%
23.9
24.2
218.6
264.0
1.6%
0.1%
2.48
2.42 -0.2%
2.31
2.26 -0.2%
2.72
2.66 -0.2%
2.42
2.37 -0.2%
2.45
2.41 -0.1%
2.43
2.39 -0.1%
4. Median Age
2000
2012
35.90
38.00 0.5%
42.20
46.20 0.8%
24.90
26.40 0.5%
39.90
44.20 0.9%
31.30
32.20 0.2%
38.00
41.20 0.7%
5. Civilian Labor
Force, employed
2000
2012
45.0
50.0
27.1
31.3
49.0
59.1
19.0
19.9
72.5
91.3
25.5
25.0 -0.2%
6. Average Hhold
Income
2000
2012
$ 45,194
$ 57,284
Source:
SCANUS
US Census Bureau
$ 49,849
2.0% $ 60,232
$ 40,911
1.6% $ 54,216
1.6%
$ 41,271
2.4% $ 53,575
0.4%
$ 45,056
2.2% $ 53,238
C.A.R.
59.6
59.2 -0.1%
2000
2012
1.2%
Value
2.1%
3. Persons/Hhold
0.9%
TOTALS
1.9%
$ 41,257
1.4% $ 46,721
2.50
2.45 -0.2%
32.99
39.57
1.5%
238.2
276.7
1.3%
$ 44,010
1.0% $ 54,462
1.8%
TABLE 2
NEW BERN, NC mSA
ANNUAL AVERAGE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS
1995-2011
1995
2000
2005
2008
2010
2011
Labor Force (000)
Employment (000)
Unemployment (000)
45.0
42.5
2.5
48.6
46.6
2.0
51.8
49.4
2.4
52.3
49.1
3.2
52.7
47.0
5.8
52.7
46.9
5.8
Unemployment Rate
5.5%
4.2%
4.7%
6.1%
11.0%
10.9%
Labor Force (000)
Employment (000)
Unemployment (000)
71.9
68.4
3.5
78.5
75.1
3.3
83.1
78.2
4.9
90.5
84.5
6.0
93.4
83.5
9.9
93.5
83.4
10.1
Unemployment Rate
4.8%
4.3%
5.8%
6.7%
10.6%
10.8%
TREND
1995-2011
C.A.R
NEW BERN, NC mSA
1.0%
0.6%
5.4%
5.4% Abs.
GREENVILLE MSA
1.7%
1.2%
6.9%
5.9% Abs.
NORTH CAROLINA
Labor Force (000)
Employment (000)
Unemployment (000)
Unemployment Rate
3,748.9
3,582.6
166.2
4,123.8
3,969.2
154.6
4,352.9
4,123.9
229.0
4,569.9
4,281.7
288.2
4,616.8
4,111.9
504.9
4,653.9
4,164.8
489.1
1.4%
0.9%
7.0%
4.4%
3.7%
5.3%
6.3%
10.9%
10.5%
6.1% Abs.
5.6%
4.0%
5.1%
5.8%
9.6%
8.9%
3.3% Abs.
UNITED STATES
Unemployment Rate
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Retrieved February 17, 2013
Market Analysis And Research
TABLE 2 CONTINUED
NEW BERN, NC mSA
ANNUAL AVERAGE CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS
1995-2011
TREND
1995-2011
C.A.R
1995
2000
2005
2008
2010
2011
Labor Force (000)
Employment (000)
Unemployment (000)
20.0
18.3
1.7
20.7
19.4
1.3
20.4
19.1
1.3
20.8
19.3
1.5
21.0
18.5
2.5
21.5
19.0
2.5
Unemployment Rate
8.5%
6.1%
6.4%
7.3%
12.0%
11.5%
Labor Force (000)
Employment (000)
Unemployment (000)
28.2
26.6
1.6
29.6
28.4
1.2
32.5
31.0
1.5
32.8
31.0
1.8
33.0
29.9
3.1
32.7
29.7
3.1
0.9%
0.7%
4.0%
Unemployment Rate
5.8%
4.2%
4.6%
5.5%
9.3%
9.4%
3.6% Abs.
Labor Force (000)
Employment (000)
Unemployment (000)
43.5
41.7
1.8
53.2
50.9
2.3
56.5
53.4
3.0
63.1
59.5
3.7
67.5
61.8
5.8
67.4
61.3
6.1
2.8%
2.4%
8.1%
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
4.4%
5.3%
5.8%
8.6%
9.1%
5.1% Abs.
Labor Force (000)
Employment (000)
Unemployment (000)
29.5
27.5
1.9
27.7
26.3
1.5
27.9
26.3
1.6
27.1
25.1
2.0
27.2
24.0
3.2
28.0
24.9
3.1
Unemployment Rate
6.5%
5.3%
5.8%
7.4%
11.9%
11.1%
WASHINGTON, NC mSA
0.5%
0.2%
2.4%
3.0% Abs.
MOREHEAD CITY, NC mSA
JACKSONVILLE, NC MSA
KINSTON, NC mSA
-0.3%
-0.6%
3.1%
4.7% Abs.
TABLE 3
NEW BERN, NC mSA
OCCUPATION AND CLASS OF WORKER, AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY 2011
NEW BERN, NC mSA
OCCUPATION
Management, business, science, and arts occupations
Service occupations
Sales and office occupations
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations
2011
(000)
(%)
14.3
9.8
10.7
7.0
6.0
29.9%
20.5%
22.4%
14.6%
12.5%
Private wage and salary workers
Government workers
Self-employed in own not incorporated business workers
Unpaid family workers
33.4
11.4
2.9
0.1
69.8%
23.8%
6.1%
0.3%
Civilian employed population 16 years and over
47.9
CLASS OF WORKER
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, American FactFinder
TABLE 4
NEW BERN, NC mSA
INDUSTRY, AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY 2011
NEW BERN, NC mSA
2011
(000)
INDUSTRY
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities
Information
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services
Educational services, and health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services
Other services, except public administration
Public administration
1.7
3.3
4.5
1.1
5.2
2.4
0.5
2.0
3.3
11.4
4.9
2.2
5.2
Civilian employed population 16 years and over
47.9
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau, American FactFinder
(%)
3.6%
6.9%
9.4%
2.4%
10.9%
5.0%
1.0%
4.3%
6.9%
23.8%
10.3%
4.6%
10.8%
TABLE 5
NEW BERN, NC mSA
POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS
2000-2017
POPULATION
2000
(000)
2012
(000)
2017
(000)
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
Effective Trade Area
155.5
62.2
127.3
155.6
500.6
172.6
72.8
153.9
200.8
600.1
178.2
77.6
162.0
214.1
632.0
New Bern, NC mSA
114.8
129.2
135.2
United States (Mil.)
281.4
314.4
328.6
GROWTH TREND (C.A.R.)*
2000 (No)
2012
(%)
2012 (No)
2017
(%)
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
17.0
10.6
26.6
45.2
99.5
0.9%
1.3%
1.6%
2.1%
1.5%
5.7
4.8
8.1
13.4
31.9
0.7%
1.3%
1.0%
1.3%
1.0%
New Bern, NC mSA
14.5
1.0%
6.0
0.9%
33.0
0.9%
14.1
0.9%
Source:
*
SCAN US, U.S. Census Bureau
All growth trends expressed in terms of compound annual growth rates (C.A.R.)
TABLE 6
NEW BERN, NC mSA
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS
2000 - 2017
HOUSEHOLDS
2000
(000)
2012
(000)
2017
(000)
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
60.7
26.4
39.6
62.2
188.9
69.0
31.6
51.0
81.3
232.8
72.2
34.2
54.8
86.6
247.8
New Bern, NC mSA
43.8
51.0
54.1
105.5
118.8
123.7
GROWTH TREND (C.A.R.)*
2000 (No)
2012
(%)
2012 (No)
2017
(%)
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
8.3
5.2
11.4
19.1
44.0
1.1%
1.5%
2.1%
2.3%
1.8%
3.2
2.6
3.8
5.4
15.0
0.9%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
New Bern, NC mSA
7.2
1.3%
3.1
1.2%
13.4
1.0%
4.9
0.8%
Source:
*
SCAN US, U.S. Census Bureau
All growth trends expressed in terms of compound annual growth rates (C.A.R.)
TABLE 7
NEW BERN, NC mSA
PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH TRENDS
2000 - 2017
2000
2012
2017
NOMINAL GROWTH TREND (C.A.R.)
2000-2012
2012-2017
PER CAPITA INCOME
(Current Dollars)
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
$
$
$
$
$
17,788
21,271
14,886
17,982
17,543
$
$
$
$
$
22,155
26,200
19,291
22,035
21,871
$
$
$
$
$
23,445
27,426
20,329
23,378
23,113
1.8%
1.8%
2.2%
1.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
New Bern, NC mSA
$
17,886
$
23,014
$
24,188
2.1%
1.0%
United States
$
21,562
$
27,068
$
28,233
1.9%
0.8%
PER CAPITA INCOME
(Constant 2012 Dollars)
REAL GROWTH TREND (C.A.R.)
2000-2012
2012-2017
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
$
$
$
$
$
23,717
28,361
19,848
23,976
23,391
$
$
$
$
$
22,155
26,200
19,291
22,035
21,871
$
$
$
$
$
20,722
24,241
17,968
20,663
20,429
-0.6%
-0.7%
-0.2%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-1.3%
-1.5%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-1.4%
New Bern, NC mSA
$
23,566
$
23,014
$
21,379
-0.2%
-1.5%
United States
$
28,410
$
27,068
$
24,954
-0.4%
-1.6%
Source:
Note:
SCAN US
Constant 2012 dollars reflect adjustment to exclude inflationary price movements as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' C.P.I.-U
TABLE 8
NEW BERN, NC mSA
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH TRENDS
2000 - 2017
2000
2012
2017
2000-2012
2012-2017
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME
(Current Dollars)
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
$
$
$
$
$
44,357
49,632
41,261
44,484
44,488
$
$
$
$
$
54,552
60,041
54,373
53,917
55,038
$
$
$
$
$
57,073
61,940
56,437
57,278
57,677
1.7%
1.6%
2.3%
1.6%
1.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
New Bern, NC mSA
$
45,193
$
57,285
$
59,484
2.0%
0.8%
United States
$
56,907
$
70,968
$
74,351
1.9%
0.9%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME
2000-2012
2012-2017
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
$
$
$
$
$
59,143
66,176
55,015
59,312
59,317
$
$
$
$
$
54,552
60,041
54,373
53,917
55,038
$
$
$
$
$
50,445
54,746
49,882
50,626
50,978
-0.7%
-0.8%
-0.1%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-1.6%
-1.8%
-1.7%
-1.3%
-1.5%
New Bern, NC mSA
$
60,257
$
57,285
$
52,576
-0.4%
-1.7%
United States
$
75,876
$
70,968
$
65,716
-0.6%
-1.5%
Source:
Note:
SCAN US
TABLE 9
NEW BERN, NC mSA
HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION 2012
INCOME LEVEL
2012
Total
Hholds
(000)
Over
$100,000
(000)
(%)
$75,000$99,999
(000)
(%)
$50,000$74,999
(000)
(%)
$35,000$49,999
(000)
(%)
$20,000$34,999
(000)
(%)
Under
$20,000
(000)
(%)
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
69.0
31.6
51.0
81.3
232.8
8.3
4.6
6.0
10.7
29.7
12.1%
14.6%
11.8%
13.2%
12.8%
7.8
3.7
5.5
7.7
24.7
11.4%
11.8%
10.8%
9.4%
10.6%
11.7
6.1
10.4
13.3
41.5
17.0%
19.4%
20.4%
16.3%
17.8%
12.3
6.2
10.9
13.6
43.1
17.8%
19.6%
21.5%
16.8%
18.5%
13.6
5.5
10.3
14.0
43.3
19.8%
17.3%
20.1%
17.2%
18.6%
New Bern, NC mSA
51.0
6.7
13.2%
6.3
12.3%
9.1
17.8%
9.1
17.9%
10.0
19.6%
9.8 19.1%
118.8
25.7
21.6%
14.1
11.9%
21.2
17.8%
18.4
15.5%
19.6
16.5%
19.8 16.7%
INCOME LEVEL
2012
Over $75,000
(000)
(%)
Over $50,000
(000)
(%)
Over $35,000
(000)
(%)
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
16.2
8.4
11.5
18.4
54.4
23.4%
26.4%
22.6%
22.6%
23.4%
27.9
14.5
21.9
31.7
95.9
40.4%
45.7%
43.0%
39.0%
41.2%
40.2
20.7
32.9
45.3
139.0
58.3%
65.4%
64.5%
55.7%
59.7%
New Bern, NC mSA
13.0
25.6%
22.1
43.3%
31.2
61.3%
39.8
33.5%
61.0
51.3%
79.4
66.8%
Source:
SCAN US
15.1
5.5
7.9
22.0
50.5
21.9%
17.3%
15.4%
27.1%
21.7%
TABLE 10
NEW BERN, NC mSA
MOSAIC Profile, 2011
CRAVEN THIRTY
MAJOR SOCIAL GROUPS
(Households)
EFFECTIVE TRADE AREA
Trade Area
(%)
R.P.I
(000)
Primary Trade Area
Trade Area
(%)
R.P.I
(000)
A: Power Elite
4.1
1.6%
25.8
0.9
1.2%
19.4
B: Flourishing Families
5.8
2.3%
51.2
0.5
0.7%
17.0
C: Booming With Confidence
8.5
3.3%
62.4
2.6
3.6%
67.8
D: Suburban Style
9.5
3.7%
73.6
2.4
3.3%
65.9
E: Thriving Boomers
13.6
5.3%
103.0
3.7
5.1%
100.6
F: Promising Families
32.9
12.7%
374.5
2.8
3.9%
114.5
G: Young City Solos
2.9
1.1%
55.2
0.0
0.0%
0.3
H: Middle Class Melting Pot
7.1
2.8%
47.5
1.3
1.9%
32.0
I: Family Union
4.1
1.6%
29.4
0.7
1.0%
18.3
J: Autumn Years
9.2
3.6%
63.8
3.1
4.3%
76.7
K: Significant Singles
3.4
1.3%
28.1
0.7
0.9%
20.0
L: Blue Sky Boomers
18.1
7.0%
115.1
8.8
12.2%
199.4
M: Families In Motion
9.9
3.8%
106.6
3.0
4.2%
116.4
N: Pastoral Pride
48.3
18.7%
256.4
18.4
25.3%
346.3
O: Singles & Starters
46.0
17.8%
202.2
8.7
12.0%
136.6
1.3
0.5%
8.0
0.2
0.3%
5.2
17.2
6.7%
91.4
7.6
10.5%
143.9
R: Aspirational Fusion
7.0
2.7%
93.0
2.3
3.2%
109.2
S: Struggling Societies
9.3
3.6%
75.2
4.7
6.4%
133.6
258.3
100.0%
72.7
100.0%
P: Cultural Connections
Q: Golden Year Gurdians
Total
Source: Experian/AGS
Note: The Relative Penetration Index (R.P.I.) is defined as the ratio of the percent of households
for any specific market area compared to the USA in general, times 100
Trade Area
(%)
R.P.I
(000)
Trade Area
(%)
R.P.I
(000)
Northern Component
Trade Area
(%)
R.P.I
(000)
USA
(%)
0.8
2.7%
43.6
0.5
0.7%
11.7
1.9
2.2%
35.7
6.1%
0.2
0.6%
13.2
1.2
1.8%
41.7
3.9
4.5%
101.5
4.4%
2.3
7.3%
138.5
0.8
1.1%
21.3
2.8
3.3%
62.0
5.3%
1.5
4.8%
96.5
1.7
2.5%
50.9
3.9
4.5%
89.5
5.0%
4.2
13.3%
259.9
2.3
3.4%
66.5
3.3
3.9%
76.0
5.1%
0.5
1.6%
46.6
27.2
40.3%
1184.5
2.4
2.7%
80.4
3.4%
0.0
0.0%
0.9
0.0
0.0%
0.5
2.8
3.3%
163.9
2.0%
1.1
3.6%
61.3
3.3
4.9%
85.0
1.3
1.5%
26.3
5.8%
0.5
1.5%
27.5
2.3
3.4%
62.2
0.6
0.7%
13.8
5.4%
1.9
6.0%
107.3
1.9
2.9%
51.5
2.3
2.6%
46.7
5.6%
1.1
3.3%
70.5
0.0
0.0%
0.3
1.7
1.9%
41.1
4.7%
4.7
14.9%
244.2
1.6
2.4%
39.1
3.0
3.4%
56.4
6.1%
1.2
3.7%
102.5
3.2
4.8%
132.5
2.5
2.9%
79.4
3.6%
5.6
17.7%
242.3
6.1
9.0%
123.9
18.3
21.1%
289.4
7.3%
1.3
4.0%
45.1
10.6
15.8%
179.0
25.3
29.3%
333.0
8.8%
0.0
0.1%
1.5
0.5
0.7%
11.3
0.6
0.7%
10.2
6.4%
4.1
13.0%
178.7
2.0
3.0%
40.9
3.4
4.0%
54.7
7.3%
0.0
0.0%
0.1
1.4
2.1%
71.0
3.3
3.8%
130.7
2.9%
0.6
2.0%
41.3
0.8
1.2%
24.9
3.2
3.7%
77.7
4.8%
31.7
100.0%
67.5
100.0%
86.4
100.0%
100.0%
TABLE 11
NEW BERN, NC mSA
ESTIMATED GAFO EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL GROWTH TRENDS, 2000-2022
GAFO EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
(Current Dollars)
2000-2012
2012-2017
2017-2022
2000
($ Mil.)
2012
($ Mil.)
2017
($ Mil.)
2022
($ Mil.)
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
$
354.1
$
169.3
$
242.6
$
358.0
$ 1,124.1
$
489.4
$
244.2
$
380.1
$
566.3
$ 1,680.0
$
534.9
$
272.4
$
421.5
$
640.7
$ 1,869.6
$
584.7
$
303.9
$
467.5
$
725.0
$ 2,081.0
2.7%
3.1%
3.8%
3.9%
3.4%
1.8%
2.2%
2.1%
2.5%
2.2%
1.8%
2.2%
2.1%
2.5%
2.2%
New Bern, NC mSA
$
262.4
$
$
$
460.5
3.1%
1.9%
1.9%
United States ($ Bil.)
$
776.7
$ 1,089.4
$ 1,294.1
2.9%
1.7%
1.7%
CRAVEN THIRTY
380.6
418.6
$ 1,187.4
GAFO EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
2000-2012
2012-2017
2017-2022
CRAVEN THIRTY
Primary Trade Area
Northern Component
$
472.2
$
225.8
$
323.5
$
477.4
$ 1,498.8
$
489.4
$
244.2
$
380.1
$
566.3
$ 1,680.0
$
472.8
$
240.8
$
372.6
$
566.3
$ 1,652.5
$
456.8
$
237.4
$
365.2
$
566.4
$ 1,625.7
0.3%
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
-0.7%
-0.3%
-0.4%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.7%
-0.3%
-0.4%
0.0%
-0.3%
New Bern, NC mSA
$
$
$
$
359.7
0.7%
-0.6%
-0.6%
United States ($ Bil.)
$ 1,035.6
$ 1,011.0
0.4%
-0.7%
-0.7%
Source
Note:
349.9
380.6
$ 1,089.4
370.0
$ 1,049.5
SCAN US
between 2000 and January 2013 and assumed thereafter at 2.5 percent per annum, compound annual rate.
TABLE 12
NEW BERN, NC mSA
RETAIL SALES 2002 AND 2007
2002 Census
Establ.
Sales
(No.)
(Mil.)
2007 Census
Establ.
Sales
(No.)
(Mil.)
NEW BERN, NC mSA
General Merchandise
Apparel & Accessories
Furniture & Home Furn.
Misc. Shopping Goods
22
45
23
54
$
$
$
$
139.7
31.6
16.6
35.1
25
38
32
61
$
$
$
$
177.7
33.1
26.3
41.6
Total GAF(O)
144
$
223.1
156
$
278.8
Source: 2002, 2007 Census of Retail Trade
TABLE 13
NEW BERN, NC mSA
GAFO RETAIL MARKET STRUCTURE, 2007
New Bern
mSA
1. Total General Merchandise
Group Stores
Sales Per Store ($000)
Sales Per Capita ($)
Stores Per 100,000
$
$
Department Stores (Inc. Leased)
Stores Per 100,000
7,109
1,470
20.7
NA
NA
NA
United
States
Variance
New Bern mSA vs. USA
(No)
(%)
$ 12,585
$ 1,914
15.2
$ (5,476)
$
(444)
5.5
$ 24,536
$
694
2.8
NA
NA
NA
-43.5%
-23.2%
36.1%
NA
NA
NA
2. Apparel & Accessories Stores
Stores Per 100,000
$
$
872
274
31.4
$
$
1,378
715
51.9
$
$
(506)
(441)
(20.5)
-36.7%
-61.7%
-39.4%
3. Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Stores Per 100,000
$
$
822
218
26.5
$
$
1,661
359
21.6
$
$
(839)
(141)
4.9
-50.5%
-39.3%
22.6%
4. Miscellaneous Shopping Goods
Stores Per 100,000
$
$
682
344
50.5
$
$
1,536
760
49.5
$
$
(854)
(416)
1.0
-55.6%
-54.7%
2.0%
5. TOTAL GAFO STORES
Stores Per 100,000
$
$
1,787
2,306
129.1
$
$
2,712
3,747
138.2
$
(925)
$ (1,441)
(9.1)
-34.1%
-38.5%
-6.6%
Source:
2007 Census of Retail Trade
TABLE 14
NEW BERN, NC mSA
IMPORT - EXPORT ANALYSIS
New Bern
mSA
2007
Population (000's)
TPI (Mil. $)
Per Capita Income
United States Per Capita Income
Per Capita Income Ratio
GAFO Sales
United States Per Capita
Income Ratio
Expected MSA Resident Per Capita Sales
Expected MSA Resident GAFO Sales
Actual GAFO Sales (000's)
Expected Resident Sales % of Transacted
Estimated Import/Export
Source:
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
120.9
4,130
34,172
39,392
0.87
3,747
0.87
3,250
393
279
141%
-41%
Morehead
mSA
2007
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
64.3
2,330
36,265
39,392
0.92
3,747
0.92
3,450
222
282
79%
21%
2007 Census of Retail Trade
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System
* reported sales in Kinston mSA do not include Office sales
** GAFO sales in the Washington mSA were witheld by the Census of Retail Trade
Jacksonville
MSA
2007
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
163.3
6,038
36,983
39,392
0.94
3,747
0.94
3,518
574
608
95%
5%
Greenville
MSA
2007
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
178.7
5,432
30,403
39,392
0.77
3,747
0.77
2,892
517
601
86%
14%
Kinston
mSA*
2007
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
59.1
1,790
30,294
39,392
0.77
3,747
0.77
2,882
170
157
109%
-9%
Washington
mSA**
2007
$
$
$
46.7
1,428
30,571
39,392
0.78
$
3,747
0.78
$
2,908
$
136
withheld
na
na

CRAVEN THIRTY NEW BERN, NC mSA SUMMARY REPORT

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