december /2012 - TTR Tirol Tourism Research
Transcription
december /2012 - TTR Tirol Tourism Research
G GfK Travel Insights Reports provides the worldwide travel and tourism industry with up-to-date, factbased market research and consultancy. DECEMBER / 2012 At www.gfk-travelinsights.com we’ll provide you with an overview of the major developments in several countries and regions. Presented to you by our regional GfK Travel experts. GfK. Growth from Knowledge ROCK SOLID TRAVEL MARKET FACTS Dear Travel Professional My name is Laurens van den Oever and as Global Director I am responsible for GfK’s consumer choices travel insights. This industry is characterized by destructive competition, concentration tendencies and an everincreasing fragmented marketplace. When there is a clear picture of market shares, reliable key data is indispensable as a basis for business strategy and planning. GfK Travel Insights delivers an integrated understanding of the “what” and “why” of real travel bookings with the help of Big Data insights. This service gives a comprehensive and accurate picture of the holiday market and combines consumer insights with live, fact-based booking results. And because the gathered data originates from actual forward booking, it can also provide genuine insights into future trends. Our experts at GfK Travel Insights are trusted advisors, helping companies to understand market opportunities and thereby making better business decisions. We do this by offering a global and harmonized service that covers the most important leisure segments and has the ability to create reports specified by country, region and industry specific markets. GfK Travel Insights operates in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia and the UK. A service for the Nordic region (Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland) and Belgium will be launched in 2013. Simultaneously, operations are being launched in Singapore and Australia. The Travel Insights reports, presented to you on this website, will give you an up-to-date overview of the top-line key trends and keep you informed on what’s happening in a number of markets. Please come back more often to check-out new releases. I can also recommend signing up for the Travel Insights report alert, which will automatically update you when we post new information. For more detailed information, please do not hesitate to contact one of our business analysts. Laurens van den Oever Global director Travel Insights GfK consumer choices Gro GfK. Growth from Knowledge EXPLORE GfK’S TRAVEL ACTIVITIES... View our updates for the following countries/regions: - UNITED KINGDOM » - GERMANY » - RUSSIA » -ITALY » - THE NETHERLANDS » Laurens van den Oever global director -BELGIUM » Laurens studied at the Breda University - THE NORDICS » of Applied Sciences, mastering in Tourism Management and Interactive Marketing. After his studies, he worked as a business GfK is one of the world’s leading market research companies, with more consultant for Ericsson Mobile where he than 11,000 experts working to discover new insights into the way people developed next generation services for live, think and shop, in over 100 countries every day. GfK is constantly mobile applications. innovating and using the latest technologies and the smartest methodologies to give its clients the clearest understanding of the most important people in the world: their customers. For more information visit: www.gfk.com. In 2003 he joined GfK and his passion came alive for research and exploring new techniques to measure live consumer behaviour. Laurens has been back in the travel business since 2009 and now leads a global team of experts that delivers integrated understandings on the what and why of real travel bookings with the help of big data insights. All the data is generated by the incredible wealth of knowledge that comes from a global research firm that operates in more than 100 countries. Together with his broad knowledge on consumer trends and behaviour and business insights across many non-food markets, Laurens can scale down this complex data to reveal the essence that clients can really take away and use. Technology and innovation are a constant driving force in Laurens’s search for excellence. DECEMBER 2012 THE UNITED KINGDOM Summer 2012 Winter 2012/13 To fully understand this summer season, it helps to Moving into the winter season we see a decrease of 7% for remember the turbulence incurred in Q3 2011 when the bookings and a decrease of 5% for revenues. Capacity for industry saw Thomas Cook’s share price plunge from this winter season was cut back at the same time as sum- over 200p to 10p. This resulted in both Thomas Cook mer 2012, so we are expecting the season to finish around and TUI announcing capacity cuts in their summer 2012 8% down year on year for passengers. programme. Direct channels are performing well with passengers to date flat year on year and revenues plus 4%. There conti- The reduction in capacity resulted in the removal of a large nues to be a very interesting top 5 growth destinations for amount of the lower-priced, low-margin holidays. In turn, this season: Mexico, Finland, the Netherlands, Morocco and there were significantly less heavily-discounted holidays Cuba. available in the latter booking months; and holiday shoppers are starting to see the benefits of booking early with a number of resorts and destinations selling out this summer. The summer 2012 booking season also encountered additional challenges. We witnessed the highest levels of major high street failures, a significant number of profit warnings, unprecedented low interest rates, the hosting of the Olympics and Paralympics, record rainfall in April and August and the Costa Concordia disaster. The season ended with a loss of 8% for passenger bookings and a loss of 2% for revenue giving an average revenue increase of £40 per passenger booking. We would not expect this to continue into future seasons as supply and demand in the UK holiday market will be more closely matched. Gro GfK Travel in the UK In 2007 GfK Ascent launched the Leisure Travel Monitor (LTM); a uniquely created market intelligence service for the total UK outbound holiday market. The service is the only one of its kind and with over 1 million bookings captured monthly it provides the most comprehensive and accurate picture of the UK outbound holiday market. GfK works in partnership with the travel industry to provide independent, forward booking information based on real, live bookings. The accuracy and detail of the LTM service promotes an understanding of the market, its categories and dynamics including destination, pricing and product mix. The LTM service is utilised by management within tour operators, online travel agencies and those with a vested interest in travel trends such as foreign exchange companies to make long-term strategic and tactical decisions. It is considered an invaluable market intelligence tool. Katherine Clark business development manager Katherine Clark is the Business Development Manager for GfK Ascent. Katherine joined GfK Ascent in April 2012 to help drive the global developments of GfK’s Travel & Tourism division. After graduating University with a BA (hons) Interested in GfK’s travel activities in the UK? Please contact Katherine Clark: +44 79 17 68 21 90 / [email protected]. Business Studies, Katherine went straight to work in the travel industry. Starting her career with South African Airways she spent 5 years in both Sales and Marketing roles before moving to lastminute.com to manage the airline relations team EMEA. An ecommerce role with Thomas Cook preceded her move to GfK Ascent in 2012. Successful October could not save summer season Travel agencies in Germany closed the year and tou- 120 115 110 rist season with a turnover record again. At the end of October, the summer season 2012 closed with a turnover increase of 9%. Together with the previous winter season (+8.3%) the year of tourism 2011/2012 brought fast growth, including a turnover increase of 8.8% up last year. 105 100 95 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 However, as the last booking month of the season, October could not add a pleasant balance to the summer. On the Instead, early-bookers were already busy planning for the contrary, an extremely weak last-minute business (-31%) summer season of 2013. Their share in the bookings of let some of the summer gains melt away by another 0.6% October covered more than a third in the turnover total. versus the preceding month. Even if the volume gathered for summer may be too small to give a prognosis: with a share of 37.4% of all bookings Destinations – 6.4% more than in the same month last year – early- In the summer months, Spain (dominated by the Balearic bookers at least leave no room for doubts as to whether Islands) was the most popular of German’s summer desti- the development in the tourism business will continue in a nations, followed by Turkey and Germany. While the drive- positive way. to-destinations in Germany and Italy did not reach last year’s booking level, fly-to-destinations Spain and particularly Turkey continued their growth. Egypt and Tunisia came back as popular summer destinations and contributed a double-digit growth, whereas Greece attracted a lot less holiday-goers than in 2011. Prognosis Though October as a booking month was able to score again – almost in double-digits – growth in the beginning of the coming winter season is decelerating. While booking turnovers were up by 10.2% in accumulated terms last month, one percentage point was lost by the end of October. Turnovers dedicated in the booking month for the winter season were up by 6% over the same month a year ago. But this was not enough to keep the high level of growth for the booking status. (inedexed turnover compared to same period previous year) DECEMBER 2012 GERMANY Gro GfK Travel in Germany GfK Travel Insights is a service that investigates consumers’ travel and booking behaviour. The basis of the analysis is the bookings of German consumers at both travel agencies and online travel portals. The consistent tracking of this data permits a continual follow-up of the latest trends and developments in tourism markets. Analyses from the tourism panel can, among other things, help to show the volume, structure and potential of the markets. It can also measure market shares and the presence of competitors, and even identify target markets and target groups. Since 2005, more than 1,200 travel agencies in Germany send their booking data regularly to GfK to be projected at a high accuracy level to the total market. Online booking data has been available since beginning of 2011. Over 30 online travel portals – among them some of the biggest in the industry – are part of the GfK Travel Insight’s panel and help to determine the trends of online sales in the tourism business. Interested in GfK’s travel activities in Germany? Please contact Doerte Nordbeck: +49 91 13 95 23 57 / [email protected]. Doerte Nordbeck senior marketing consultant Doerte Nordbeck is Senior Marketing Consultant and responsible for the German tourism panel Travel Insights. Using the facts and figures generated by this panel, Doerte is able to show tourism suppliers, like tour operators and airports, the market’s potential. She furthermore ensures the enhancement of Travel Insights by, for example, tracking additional distribution channels. Doerte specialised in Marketing and Statistics when studying Business Administration in Freiberg. Right after graduating in 2003 she began working for GfK’s Small Domestic Appliances division. When GfK decided to expand their activities to the travel industry she moved to this division and became part of the initial team that created the Panel. Russia’s summer season results and preliminary vision of winter The total generated revenue during the entire travel year 2011/12 and summer 2012 was higher by 10% when compared to the previous travel seasons (as of September 2012). With this in mind, the prospects for winter 2012/13 are especially positive due to a 23% growth in value that is based on preliminary bookings that were 140 130 120 110 100 90 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 made up and to September. Peculiarities It is also interesting to mention that since February 2012 Short-term trips make up the essential part of all tours the Russian outbound market has not fallen below the to Germany. The market share of such trips is also high level of the previous year. in France. The reason is quite evident: all these tours are excursion orientated. With regard to the Mediterranean: Seasonality it should be pointed out that its share in the mentioned June was the most important month for this year’s boo- segment is increasing. China is the most common place for kings. This year’s June peak was even more pronounced the extensive journeys. Compared to other countries, the than it was in 2011. The time for the peak is the key market share of trips to China with duration of 15 to 21 difference between Russia and European markets where days is higher. the main bookings are made much earlier in the year. The Among all top 10 destinations, France is the undisputed second most important periods are May and July. The leader in terms of bookings for two star hotels, although greatest gain was shown at the beginning and at the end mass-market products (3 star and 4 star hotels) still make of summer. This is the time which shows whether tour ope- the largest contribution. The opposite is true for the UAE, rators are ready to react to the changing demand. where the tourism business consists of hotels in the high- Based on the bookings for the coming winter season, it end category. is possible to talk about positive forecast. For instance, When comparing the years, we can conclude that boo- November 2012 and December 2012 demonstrate kings for such destinations as China, UAE, Czech Republic, double-digit growth in terms of value. France and Italy are made earlier. However, the overall picture has hardly changed. Bookings to Mediterranean Countries countries have shifted into the segment of less than 60 Nearly all countries that have the greatest impact on the pre-booking days. Russian outbound tourism – such as Turkey, Egypt, China, Spain, Czech Republic, Thailand and UAE – saw an increase in both touristic flow and revenue when compared to 2011. The obvious leaders in terms of growth rates are Spain and Thailand. Italy and Cyprus have slightly exceeded the level of the previous year. Looking back, the Czech Republic, France and Germany have retained their previous positive growth tendencies. (inedexed turnover compared to same period previous year) DECEMBER 2012 RUSSIA Gro GfK Travel in Russia GfK Consumer Choices works closely together with providers of tourism services in Russia in order to create a professional tool for analysing the market for out-bound trips. Since 2009, GfK Travel Insights collects information on a monthly basis from tour operators all over Russia. Our reports include the following details: type of product, pre-booking periods and duration, accommodation class, transportation type, average prices, city of booking and much more. By basing our analysis on real, live booking data we are capable of providing our clients in the tourist industry with the best possible insights. We are able to identify arising trends, assess and forecast development prospects and support the making of tactical pricing decisions. We can also give an accurate account of the competitive situation by comparing our clients’ own performance with the market as a whole. Alexander Filipov client service director Alexander Filipov has been working in the tourism division of GfK’s Russian branch since 2010. He is in close contact with all players of this market: starting from core tour operators and ending with online booking agencies. He regularly writes press releases on behalf of GfK, giving monthly insights on tourism in Russia. Interested in GfK’s travel activities in Russia? Please contact Alexander Filipov: +7 49 59 37 72 22 / [email protected]. Alexander studied Mathematics and Statistics at Lomonosov Moscow State University. Right after graduation he went to graduate school to focus on Economics and Marketing. He joined GfK in 2009 where for the first three years he worked as a Consultant in the Small Domestic Appliances division, developing relations with key retailers and producers involved in the business. Organised tourism in Italy declines in third quarter too Total sales for Q3 decreased by 13% in terms of passengers and the situation is comparable for departures in the same period. Bookings for departures in the winter 2012/13 season have not yet started, as main suppliers deliver their proposals to travel agencies at the beginning of October, and as Italian tourist have always preferred last-minute purchases. Destinations The whole market is affected by many factors such as the economical crisis and social issues. As a result, Egypt – which can offer cheap all-inclusive packages – was preferred to destinations in Italy and other places in Europe where prices are less competitive. Destinations in the Middle East (i.e. pilgrim destinations) impressively increased their sales (+20%) and a substantial number of passengers switched from Latin American destinations to destinations in the Far East. Thailand and Philippines are popular due to social and political stabilisation and the bargain packages offered by small, specialised travel operators. Holiday types Cruise holidays did well this summer season, increasing their share in terms of passengers from 13% to 16%. They did this with very competitive offers. Their products competed against all-inclusive packages which lost nearly 2% the shares. In terms of departures, one-week holidays were the most important product in Q3; its share is still more than 50%. And no matter what the destination, the number of shortbreak departures increased at the expense of extended journeys. But, from a Q3 booking prospection, short-break holidays lost more passengers (-17%) than extended journeys. 100 96 92 88 84 80 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 (inedexed turnover compared to same period previous year) DECEMBER 2012 ITALY Gro GfK Travel in Italy Thanks to an initiative by management a project for market research in the tourism industry was born in Italy in 2001. Since 2004 the analysis is fully run according to retail panel methodology. Data is retrieved directly from the systems of travel agencies and analysed monthly in order to supply clients with an understanding of the market. Our panel consists of traditional travel agencies that sell to more than 250 people per year. Tourist services offered by tour operators are fully analysed: accommodations, packages, cruises and charter flights and similar elements are included in the reports. A new element that is analysed is gift boxes that are offered by both travel agencies and technology sales specialists (TSS). Daniela Mastropasqua Account manager Daniela Mastropasqua joined GfK in 2006 as Account Manager for the Italian Tourism Panel. She has a master’s degree in Marketing and Communication. She began her career Interested in GfK’s travel activities in Italy? Please contact Daniela Mastropasqua: +39 02 85 50 51 / [email protected]. working for a tour operator (now Kuoni) and in the airline industry. After that she worked for Maritz Travel Company’s Italian partner and Lufthansa City Center. In the past few years Daniela has gained significant experience with travel distribution and she has cooperated with an international OTA. Daniela’s last position in the tourism industry was Sales Manager at HRG where she enhanced new businesses with multinational clients. Summer 2012 down by 4.7% Previously, the entire industry was anxious to see what 106 104 102 the final episode of the summer season would bring. What was the consumer going to do? Wait even longer this year to make his bookings at a travel agent or tour operator? Choose to arrange his own holiday and book directly at the carrier and the supplier of accommodations? Or was he going to skip the holiday this year due to the enduring 100 98 96 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 economic crisis? Last-minute Season Less drive-to-holidays At the end of the summer season of 2012, the number of Taking into account the bookings of the entire year 2012, passengers shows a decline of 4.7%. A great number of the the turnover shows a decline of 0.7%. Only the second bookings in July and August are considered last-minutes quarter showed a positive trend. The third quarter showed as the departure dates were less than 6 weeks after the a higher average booking amount, therefore the turnover booking. European consumer research shows that holidays decreased with 2.2% less than the number of passen- are one of the last matters which the consumer is willing to gers. This can partly be clarified by the fact that more economize on. The consumer is more willing to cut back on consumers have chosen for a fly-to-holiday in the sum- costs for food, clothing/shoes, nights out and large purcha- mer months. This was at the expense of the lower priced ses than on holidays. Despite this research, we still have to drive-to-holidays. Especially in this segment the bookings note that the last-minute season has not been able to turn showed great decline rates. the tide concerning the market for packaged tours. Winter prognosis Direct sales versus travel shops The bookings for the winter season have started recently. The bookings in July receded but specifically the bookings With regard to the turnover figures, a decline of 3.5% is in August were hit hard with a decline in number of pas- found. The number of passengers faced a decline of 8.7%. sengers of 11%. Especially the bookings that were made The upcoming months have to show whether this will be in the travel shop showed substantial decline rates, similar the trend or whether this trend will turn around. However, to previous figures. With regard to these travel shops, the first results indicate that the current period is a tough the direct sales channel became increasingly important. one for the travel industry. The direct sales channel occupied an increasing share of the total bookings. 46% of all bookings that were made this year were made at direct sellers, 39% was booked physically at the travel shop and the remaining 15% were bookings which originated from the direct/online bookings of travel shops. This last percentage, 15%, has increased proportionally over the last couple of years. (inedexed turnover compared to same period previous year) DECEMBER 2012 THE NETHERLANDS Gro GfK Travel in The Netherlands In 2008, with the help of the GfK TravelScan, GfK began facilitating the tourism industry with market intelligence. In line with GfK practice, the TravelScan contains booking information based on real, live bookings. The information is gathered from more than 1350 points of sale and provides insight into the booking behaviour of Dutch consumers. TravelScan provides clients with key information such as travel trends, average selling prices, market shares, and bookings split by channels such as traditional agencies or direct bookings. Booking periods are identified, including time of booking and departure dates by month, season or year. GfK works on TravelScan in partnership with trade association ANVR. A growing number of travel organisations contribute to our database, among them ANWB, D-reizen, Corendon, Thomas Cook, Veluwegroep, TUI, Oad, VakantieXperts, Sundio group, Terra Travel, Fox, Kuoni, Djoser and many others. Judith Nyk business consultant Judith Nijk is Business Consultant for GfK, and has been working for the company’s travel business since 2010. She is responsible for GfK’s commercial activities within the Dutch travel industry. She provides integrated understanding on the what and why of real travel bookings to clients such as tour operators, travel agents and tourist offices. Interested in GfK’s travel activities in The Netherlands? Please contact Judith Nyk: +31 20 71 33 023 / [email protected]. Judith studied Economics at the Groningen University where she specialised in Marketing Management. Right after graduation she joined GfK. For a number of years, she kept busy as Account Manager for GfK’s Media and Entertainment division. INTRODUCING ROCK SOLID TRAVEL INSIGHTS IN BELGIUM In recent years, the Belgian travel industry has been sub- By gradually expanding the number of travel agents, as ject to massive changes like no other sector. Consumers well as adding the direct sales from tour operators (some are being offered more and more new ways of fulfilling of this data is already available), we will be able to con- their holiday aspirations. Whereas consumers traditionally struct the first comprehensive and accurate picture of booked directly via tour operator and/or travel agent, channel dynamics. The next phase consists of adding new these players now have to cope with competition from channels such as airlines/LCC, OTAs, long-haul specialists OTAs (online travel agencies), airlines and low-cost car- and of creating market segmentations such as cruise riers, booking platform sites and many DIY initiatives. market, holiday parks, cultural travels and organised group travelling. This highly competitive environment creates a strong need for more insight into consumers’ booking behaviour and Want the latest market information on the status of live the dynamics between the different distribution channels travel booking behaviour in Belgium? Then join us now in the travel industry. This is where GfK’s Belgium Travel and we will be able to assist you in making better business Insights steps in! decisions. Our advice is based on the neutral and objective live booking data obtained with the help of GfK’s Travel After many introduction rounds with representatives of Insights panel. travel agents’ federations and organisations, tour operators, back office suppliers, media and other stakeholders, In 2013 the first insights will be available! GfK is about to go live in Belgium with Travel Insights. Access to booking data from the independent travel agents Please contact us directly if you would like any further is obtained through their back office suppliers. Some of the information. larger organised travel agent groups have already committed themselves to join GfK’s Travel Insight panel. Gro GfK Travel in Belgium In January 2008, GfK Benelux took its first step in the Dutch tourism sector. Since then a clear picture of the Dutch consumers’ travel behaviour has been created by analysing the booking data of some 1300 retail outlets. The GfK TravelScan creates very detailed reports that include such information as booking period, departure date, length of stay, total amount spent on travel, airport of departure and arrival, and insurance. Today, the same concept is being rolled out in Belgium and first results are expected in 2013. Filip Van Dyck director home & lifestyle Filip Van Dyck began working for GfK Retail and Technology in 1997. He has completed a wide range of projects for both manufacturers and retailers. As Director Home Interested in GfK’s travel activities in Belgium? Please contact Filip Van Dyck: +32 2 474 39 55 / [email protected]. & Lifestyle Benelux, he is responsible for multiple commercial Consumer Technology product-oriented sectors and has developed a thorough understanding of the ever-faster-changing interaction between manufacturer, retailer and consumer. Together with his team of consultants in Belgium and the Netherlands, Filip uses his knowledge to develop new strategically important projects for GfK, and to bring added value to customers. INTRODUCING ROCK SOLID TRAVEL INSIGHTS IN THE NORDICS Do you want the latest market information from the Nordic countries, one of the most trend-setting leisure travel markets in the world? In just a few months’ time this information will be available! GfK Retail and Technology Nordic has now launched a research platform for the leisure travel market in Sweden, Sweden Norway Denmark, Finland and Norway. The panel will include live booking data from the largest tour-operators, travel agents and online travel agents (OTAs) in this region. From January 2013 onwards, GfK will produce a weekly summary of the trends in the Nordic travel market. The Nordics has one of the most interesting leisure travel markets in the world. There is a strong purchasing power per capita in these four countries. Due to ratings and long distances to holiday destinations, travellers prefer chartered and other airline alternatives, and overnight stays in hotels. You are welcome to contact us for latest Nordic travel trends! Denmark Finland Gro GfK Travel in The Nordics GfK Retail and Technology Nordic has now launched a research platform for the Leisure Travel market in Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway. The panel will include live booking data from the largest tour operators, travel agents and online travel agents (OTAs). Starting January 2013, GfK is going to measure the Nordic travel market on a weekly basis. The very first detailed live-results of some of the leading leisure travel markets in other parts of the world are being processed at the moment. The first panel results will be available for all participating panel members and clients at the beginning of 2013. GfK works in close co-operation with all Nordic travel industry associations in Sweden (SRF), Denmark (DRF), Finland (SMAL) and Norway (Virke). Vesa Paldanius senior market research consultant As a senior market research consultant, Vesa Paldanius has experience of most of the consumer durables markets in the Nordic region. His main responsibility within GfK Nordic is to create new areas for panel research. Un- Interested in GfK’s travel activities in The Nordics? Please contact Vesa Paldanius: +46 10 45 43 711 / [email protected]. derstanding the consumers’ behaviour and total spending of both durables and services is what drives him to continuously explore new markets. Vesa holds a dual degree in European Marketing Studies in the UK and Finland. He gained experience in both insurances and media before joining the GfK Group as the first Finnish speaking consultant in 2002. Growth from Knowledge Please check out new reports and updated information regularly at www.gfk-travelinsights.com. Colophon Publisher GfK Travel Insights Krijgsman 22-25 1186 DM Amstelveen Tel. +31 20 - 713 3000 [email protected] www.gfk-travelinsights.com Editor AnneLaure Lefebvre, marketing consultant, GfK Travel Insights, consumer choices Design & production Wonders interactive, The Netherlands, www.wonders.nl Disclaimer The utmost care has been taken in the construction of this publication. The information contained has been checked for correctness. Notwithstanding, no liability can be accepted for the correctness or otherwise and accuracy of the information contained. No liability is accepted for direct or indirect damage arising pursuant to use of this publication, unless this has been caused by deliberate intent or gross negligence. Copyright Reproduction or any form of duplication only with written permission from the publisher. All rights reserved. Want to stay up-to-date? Sign up for the Travel Insights Reports alert at www.gfk-travelinsights.com and we’ll keep you posted automatically.