Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand? PDF
Transcription
Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand? PDF
Fossil Energy Primer A view of the Himalayas from Lhasa Tad Patzek, Petroleum & Geosystems Engineering, UT Austin 10/7/2010, 10:00-12:00 am, SVC 203/202, Capitol Visitor Center, Washington D.C. U.S. Energy Independence Fossil fuels run 85 percent of U.S. economy directly, and the remainder has a variable but non-negligible fossil fuel content Electricity is produced almost entirely from domestic energy sources Natural gas is the swing fuel for electricity generation Natural gas could aid in the electrification of railroads Natural gas could supplement petroleum as an automotive fuel – p.1/24 Summary of Conclusions. . . The global rate of production of oil is peaking now, coal will peak in 2-5 years, and natural gas in 20-50 years There is P LENTY of fossil fuels (“resources”) left all over the Earth The resource size (current balance of a banking account) is mistakenly equated with the speed of drawing it down (ATM withdrawals) Few understand the ever more stringent daily withdrawal limits imposed by nature on our ATM cards (oil & gas wells and coal mines) Even fewer understand the high minimum balances (resource left behind) imposed on all oil, coal and gas recovery deposits – p.2/24 Summary of Conclusions. . . Economists, business people, and policy makers generally have poor understanding of banking They know what the rate of withdrawals (energy demand) should be, but have little idea about the withdrawal limits (energy supply) Offshore and unconventional fields will be producing an increasing portion of global oil supply Solar energy flow-based solutions (wind turbines, photovoltaics, and biofuels) will require most radical changes of our lifestyles Thermodynamically, industrial-scale biofuels are not sustainable, and will damage the Earth’s most vital ecosystems – p.3/24 Oil Resides in Deep Subsurface Zagros Mountains by J. T. Daniels (NASA), pore scale by Maša Prodanović – p.4/24 Accumulation vs. Production Oil rate out Varies a lot Recoverable Oil, ∼1/3 Unrecoverable Oil, ∼2/3 Accumulation = Piggy Bank, Coin Slot = Oil Wells, Injection Wells, and Surface Facilities – p.5/24 Mean Ultimate Recoveries Far East U.S.A. Africa Europe Latin America FSU Middle East 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Mean Ultimate Recovery, % Oil−in−Place 35 40 Sources: Laherrere, 2002, other sources – p.6/24 Electricity generation Rest 23 350 Hydroelectric 72 300 Days on Electricity/year Nuclear 79 250 Natural Gas & Other 200 176 150 100 Coal 50 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 37% of U.S. primary energy use. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010 – p.7/24 Electricity generation – Rest 22 20 18 Geothermal Days on Electricity/year Wind 16 1 14 5 Wood & Other Biomass 12 10 5 8 6 Petroleum 4 4 2 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Solar thermal and PV = 1 hour of U.S. electricity. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010 – p.8/24 Transportation Fuels Ethanol 350 8 18 38 Residual Oil 300 99 Days on Fuel/year Aviation Fuels 250 Distillate Oil 200 202 150 100 Motor Gasoline 50 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 31% of U.S. primary energy use. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010 – p.9/24 Predicting the Future. . . 0.7 0.6 Million BOPD 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Production histories of 65 oilfields in the North Sea. Sources: Norwegian Government (2009), Patzek & Croft (2010). The thick lines are Ekofisk and Ekofisk West – p.10/24 . . . Emergent Behavior. . . 3.5 3 Million BOPD 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 A single Hubbert curve explains almost all of Norwegian production in the North Sea – p.11/24 A Future of Norwegian North Sea 30 Billion Barrels of Oil 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Sources: Norwegian Government (2009), Patzek & Croft (2010) 2030 2040 – p.12/24 North Sea: Ekofisk 40 Horizontal wells 30 25 Waterflood 20 15 10 5 0 1970 Infill wells Bubble point Cumulative recovery, %Oil−in−Place 35 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 OIP=6.4 billion bbl. Sources: Norwegian Government (2009), Patzek & Croft (2010) – p.13/24 Emergent Behavior in the Gulf. . . 1.5 Industry Projection Milion BOPD 1 Shallow water 0.5 0 1940 Deep water 1960 1980 2000 Patzek’s Projection 2020 2040 Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations – p.14/24 A Future of Deep Gulf 9 8 7 Billion Barrels of Oil Industry Projection 6 Patzek’s Projection 5 4 3 2 Historic data 1 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations 2020 2040 – p.15/24 Total Gulf Oil/U.S. Oil Elsewhere 45 Thunder Horse GOM Oil vs. Rest of U.S. Oil, % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations 1990 2000 2010 – p.16/24 2006 Oil Data for GOM Million barrels of oil 1000 Proven oil reserves Cumulative oil produced 100 10 1 1 10 100 Rank = Number of fields larger than a field 1000 Source: MMS data, 2006 Fractals everywhere! All that is relevant was discovered? – p.17/24 Second and Third Hubbert Peak 30 Marketed NG Production, EJ/Year 25 Production Hubbert cycles Future UNG 20 15 10 5 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Future Unconventional Natural Gas Cycle = 100 years of U.S. Supply 2150 – p.18/24 Unconventional Gas Cumulative Natural Gas Production, EJ 2000 Fundamental Hubbert peak All peaks 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Extra 1,200 Tcf = $4.3 trillion at $3.6 per mcf, mostly from unconventional gas – p.19/24 IEA Demand Growth Scenario. . . OECD/EIA 2008 scenario of annual energy demand in the world Source: www.iea.org/speech/2008/Tanaka/cop−weosideeven.pdf – p.20/24 IEA and an Oil Production Peak?! 50 million bopd There is an oil peak and 64 millions barrels of oil per day will be missing by 2030 Source: www.iea.org/speech/2008/Tanaka/cop−weosideeven.pdf – p.21/24 Oil Recovery Processes Adapted by Larry Lake from the Oil & Gas Journal, Apr. 23, 1990 – p.22/24 World EOR Projects: 2.5 MBOPD Thermal Gas injection Other China Indonesia Canada Venezuela Mexico USA 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Major EOR Projects, Million BOPD 0.6 0.7 Adapted from the Oil & Gas Journal, Thomas, 2007 – p.23/24 Power Density Oil/gas fields World field average Solar PV in U.S. Wind turbines Asia Latin America CIS Africa Europe Middle East 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Watts of electricity equivalents per square meter 1600 Adapted from Laherrere, 2003, Patzek, 2007 – p.24/24