Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand? PDF

Transcription

Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand? PDF
Fossil Energy Primer
A view of the Himalayas from Lhasa
Tad Patzek, Petroleum & Geosystems Engineering, UT Austin
10/7/2010, 10:00-12:00 am, SVC 203/202, Capitol Visitor Center, Washington D.C.
U.S. Energy Independence
Fossil fuels run 85 percent of U.S.
economy directly, and the remainder
has a variable but non-negligible
fossil fuel content
Electricity is produced almost entirely
from domestic energy sources
Natural gas is the swing fuel for
electricity generation
Natural gas could aid in the
electrification of railroads
Natural gas could supplement
petroleum as an automotive fuel
– p.1/24
Summary of Conclusions. . .
The global rate of production of oil is peaking now,
coal will peak in 2-5 years, and natural gas in 20-50
years
There is P LENTY of fossil fuels (“resources”) left all
over the Earth
The resource size (current balance of a banking
account) is mistakenly equated with the speed of
drawing it down (ATM withdrawals)
Few understand the ever more stringent daily
withdrawal limits imposed by nature on our ATM
cards (oil & gas wells and coal mines)
Even fewer understand the high minimum balances
(resource left behind) imposed on all oil, coal and
gas recovery deposits
– p.2/24
Summary of Conclusions. . .
Economists, business people, and policy makers
generally have poor understanding of banking
They know what the rate of withdrawals (energy
demand) should be, but have little idea about the
withdrawal limits (energy supply)
Offshore and unconventional fields will be producing
an increasing portion of global oil supply
Solar energy flow-based solutions (wind turbines,
photovoltaics, and biofuels) will require most radical
changes of our lifestyles
Thermodynamically, industrial-scale biofuels are not
sustainable, and will damage the Earth’s most vital
ecosystems
– p.3/24
Oil Resides in Deep Subsurface
Zagros Mountains by J. T. Daniels (NASA), pore scale by Maša Prodanović
– p.4/24
Accumulation vs. Production
Oil rate out
Varies a lot
Recoverable Oil, ∼1/3
Unrecoverable Oil, ∼2/3
Accumulation = Piggy Bank, Coin Slot = Oil Wells, Injection Wells, and Surface Facilities
– p.5/24
Mean Ultimate Recoveries
Far East
U.S.A.
Africa
Europe
Latin America
FSU
Middle East
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mean Ultimate Recovery, % Oil−in−Place
35
40
Sources: Laherrere, 2002, other sources
– p.6/24
Electricity generation
Rest
23
350
Hydroelectric
72
300
Days on Electricity/year
Nuclear
79
250
Natural Gas & Other
200
176
150
100
Coal
50
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
37% of U.S. primary energy use. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010
– p.7/24
Electricity generation – Rest
22
20
18
Geothermal
Days on Electricity/year
Wind
16
1
14
5
Wood & Other Biomass
12
10
5
8
6
Petroleum
4
4
2
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Solar thermal and PV = 1 hour of U.S. electricity. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010
– p.8/24
Transportation Fuels
Ethanol
350
8
18
38
Residual Oil
300
99
Days on Fuel/year
Aviation Fuels
250
Distillate Oil
200
202
150
100
Motor Gasoline
50
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
31% of U.S. primary energy use. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010
– p.9/24
Predicting the Future. . .
0.7
0.6
Million BOPD
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Production histories of 65 oilfields in the North Sea. Sources: Norwegian Government
(2009), Patzek & Croft (2010). The thick lines are Ekofisk and Ekofisk West
– p.10/24
. . . Emergent Behavior. . .
3.5
3
Million BOPD
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
A single Hubbert curve explains almost all of Norwegian production in the North Sea
– p.11/24
A Future of Norwegian North Sea
30
Billion Barrels of Oil
25
20
15
10
5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Sources: Norwegian Government (2009), Patzek & Croft (2010)
2030
2040
– p.12/24
North Sea: Ekofisk
40
Horizontal wells
30
25
Waterflood
20
15
10
5
0
1970
Infill wells
Bubble point
Cumulative recovery, %Oil−in−Place
35
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
OIP=6.4 billion bbl. Sources: Norwegian Government (2009), Patzek & Croft (2010)
– p.13/24
Emergent Behavior in the Gulf. . .
1.5
Industry
Projection
Milion BOPD
1
Shallow water
0.5
0
1940
Deep water
1960
1980
2000
Patzek’s
Projection
2020
2040
Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations
– p.14/24
A Future of Deep Gulf
9
8
7
Billion Barrels of Oil
Industry Projection
6
Patzek’s
Projection
5
4
3
2
Historic data
1
0
1940
1960
1980
2000
Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations
2020
2040
– p.15/24
Total Gulf Oil/U.S. Oil Elsewhere
45
Thunder Horse
GOM Oil vs. Rest of U.S. Oil, %
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations
1990
2000
2010
– p.16/24
2006 Oil Data for GOM
Million barrels of oil
1000
Proven oil reserves
Cumulative oil produced
100
10
1
1
10
100
Rank = Number of fields larger than a field
1000
Source: MMS data, 2006
Fractals everywhere! All that is relevant was discovered?
– p.17/24
Second and Third Hubbert Peak
30
Marketed NG Production, EJ/Year
25
Production
Hubbert cycles
Future UNG
20
15
10
5
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Future Unconventional Natural Gas Cycle = 100 years of U.S. Supply
2150
– p.18/24
Unconventional Gas
Cumulative Natural Gas Production, EJ
2000
Fundamental Hubbert peak
All peaks
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Extra 1,200 Tcf = $4.3 trillion at $3.6 per mcf, mostly from unconventional gas
– p.19/24
IEA Demand Growth Scenario. . .
OECD/EIA 2008 scenario of annual energy demand in the world
Source: www.iea.org/speech/2008/Tanaka/cop−weosideeven.pdf
– p.20/24
IEA and an Oil Production Peak?!
50 million bopd
There is an oil peak and 64 millions barrels of oil per day will be missing by 2030
Source: www.iea.org/speech/2008/Tanaka/cop−weosideeven.pdf
– p.21/24
Oil Recovery Processes
Adapted by Larry Lake from the Oil & Gas Journal, Apr. 23, 1990
– p.22/24
World EOR Projects: 2.5 MBOPD
Thermal
Gas injection
Other
China
Indonesia
Canada
Venezuela
Mexico
USA
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Major EOR Projects, Million BOPD
0.6
0.7
Adapted from the Oil & Gas Journal, Thomas, 2007
– p.23/24
Power Density
Oil/gas fields
World field average
Solar PV in U.S.
Wind turbines
Asia
Latin America
CIS
Africa
Europe
Middle East
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Watts of electricity equivalents per square meter
1600
Adapted from Laherrere, 2003, Patzek, 2007
– p.24/24

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