Trends in Singles Play Intensity on the ATP Tour

Trends in Singles Play Intensity on the ATP Tour
Stephanie A. Kovalchik
RAND Corporation
NESSIS 2013
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Has Tennis Become Too Demanding?
John Isner and Nicholas Mahut, Wimbledon 2010
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Study Objective
Was the Isner-Mahut 11hr and 5-minute marathon at the
2010 Wimbledon an anomaly or a sign that match play has
gotten increasingly arduous over time?
This study sought to shed light on this question by
analyzing trends in matches played and match duration
over 20 years of the ATP Tour.
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ATP Dataset
Years
Tournaments
Play
Players
1991-2012
All 250 Level and Higher∗
Singles Only
End-of-Year Top 100
Total Players
482
Total Matches
100,460 (Qualifying+)
Source
www.atpworldtour.com
* Excluding Davis Cup and the Olympics
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Total Tournaments
500 Series and Above: Tournaments & Surfaces
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Grass
Carpet
Hard
Clay
19
91
19
92
Champ Series
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19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
Super 9
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
Tennis Masters Series
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
ATP 1000
20
12
500 Series and Above: Tournaments & Surfaces
• Tournaments in the 500 series and higher declined by 2
between 2003-2008, returning to the number 24 of the
mid-1990s with the introduction of the Masters 1000s in 2009.
• Over the first 20 years of the ATP Tour, carpet has been
displaced by the hard court surface, which now makes up 70%
of the most prestigious tournaments on the Tour.
• Grass has consistently been the least-played surface, with just
1 tournament above the 250 level.
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Q. Are ATP players
playing more matches
today than 20 years
ago?
Andy Murray
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Total ATP Matches Per Year
Total Matches (Median)
50
48
46
44
42
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
Tour Year
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20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Total ATP Matches Per Year By Surface
30
Total Matches
25
20
Grass
Carpet
Hard
15
Clay
10
19
91 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012 013
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Tour Year
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Total ATP Matches Per Year
• More matches were played per season in the mid-1990s than
any later time in Tour history.
• The mean number of matches reached a low of 42 in 2004, a
difference of 8 from the high of 50 in 1993.
• The number of matches play has been rising steeply since the
mid-2000s.
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Total ATP Matches Per Year By Surface
• Play on carpet surface made up 20% of Tour play in the early
1990s but has now been entirely displaced.
• As play on clay has declined, hard court play has steadily
increased, sharply since the mid-2000s.
• The proportion of play on grass has remained relatively
constant.
• Today’s ATP top 100 player will play an average of 27 matches
on hard, 13 on clay, and 5 on grass court surfaces.
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Q. Are players
investing more in the
top-tier tournaments
today than in the past?
Roger Federer
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Percentage of Matches Over 250 Level
Increasing Concentration on 500-Level and Above
60
55
50
45
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
Tour Year
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20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Q. How has the
number of points per
match changed over
Tour history?
Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro
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Total Points Per Match
162.5
Total Points
160.0
157.5
155.0
152.5
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
Tour Year
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20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Total Points Per Match By Surface
Total Points
200
Grass
180
Carpet
Hard
Clay
160
140
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
Tour Year
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20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Total Points Per Match
• A 6-point decline in the average points per match is due to
changes on grass and hard court.
• Matches on grass continue to take the most points to play. In
2012, the average grass court match took 30 more points than
hard or clay court matches.
• The points per match for clay and hard court matches have
been historically close, but clay court matches have exceeded
hard court in recent years.
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Q. Has the intensity
of rallies on the ATP
increased over time?
Novak Djokovic
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Play Intensity Overall
Minutes Per Point (Intensity)
0.700
0.675
0.650
0.625
0.600
19
91 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Tour Year
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Play Intensity By Surface
Match Duration (minutes)
0.70
Grass
0.65
Carpet
Hard
Clay
0.60
0.55
19
91 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Tour Year
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Play Intensity
• After a dip in the intensity of play in the mid-1990s, the length of
rallies has been on rise.
• In 2012, the average length of points was 42 seconds overall
(including play and time between points) → the longest duration
in ATP Tour history.
• The most dramatic rise in point lengths has occurred for grass
court play.
• Although the average intensity of rallies has always been
greatest on the clay surface, hard court rallies approached clay
court lengths in 2012.
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Q. What are the
implications of
trends in points
played and intensity
for match duration?
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic
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Duration = Intensity × Total Points
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Match Duration Overall
Match Duration (minutes)
110
105
100
19
91 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Tour Year
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Match Duration By Surface
130
Match Duration (minutes)
120
Grass
110
Carpet
Hard
Clay
100
90
19
91 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Tour Year
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Match Duration
• Match lengths have followed a V-shaped pattern, with the
period of shortest match lengths occurring in the mid-1990s,
following the pattern of play intensity.
• The V-shaped trend was observed for grass, clay and hard
court surfaces.
• The increase in match duration over time shows that the rise in
play intensity has outstepped the general decrease in points
played per match.
• In 2012, matches on the Tour were an average of nearly 110
minutes → an all-Tour high.
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Q. How have
changes to the
schedule and
duration of play
affected overall time
on court?
Andy Roddick
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Days on Court Overall
Time On Court (Days)
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
19
91 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Tour Year
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Days on Court by Surface
Time On Court (Days)
2.0
1.5
Grass
Carpet
Hard
Clay
1.0
0.5
19
91 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Tour Year
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Days on Court
• Since the late 1990s, time on court has increased by nearly half
a day on average → returning to the high of 3.5 days observed
when the Tour was established.
• Over the past decade, the amount of matchplay spent on hard
court surfaces has continued to rise and now represents an
average of more than 2 total days of match time.
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Q. Is there a winner’s
curse in tennis?
Rafael Nadal
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Days On Court By Rank
Top 30
31-60
61-100
Time On Court (Days)
3
2
Grass
Carpet
Hard
Clay
1
0
19
91 994 997 000 003 006 009 012 991 994 997 000 003 006 009 012 991 994 997 000 003 006 009 012
1
1
2
2
2
2
2 1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2 1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
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Tour Year
Summary
• The ATP Tour has been characterized by dramatic changes in
surface and playing strategy over its brief history.
• Since the early 2000s, Tour play has gotten increasingly
demanding as player’s have shifted from serve-and-volley to
grinding out wins from the baseline.
• Without changes to the Tour schedule or surface speeds, the
ATP season is on track to become more onerous on players
(especially top players) with each Tour year.
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Please send further questions to me at
[email protected].
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