Global Market Forecast

Transcription

Presented by: JOHN LEAHY
Chief Operating Officer Customers
Global Market
Forecast
2015-2034
© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Global Market Forecast 2015: Highlights
GMF 2015 key numbers and 20-year change
World Fleet Forecast
2014
2034
% change
2014-2034
RPK (trillions)
6.2
15.2
145%
New aircraft deliveries
-
+1,227 aircraft
GMF 2015 vs. GMF 2014
Passenger Aircraft Fleet
17,354
New passenger aircraft
deliveries
Dedicated Freighters
New freighter aircraft
deliveries
35,749
106%
31,781
1,633
2,687
65%
804
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)
Total New Aircraft Deliveries
32,585
Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF2015
20-year demand for 32,600 new passenger and freight aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
Market Value of
22,927 single-aisle aircraft
-
$4.9
8,108 twin-aisle aircraft
trillion
1,550 very large aircraft
32,585 new aircraft
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)
Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Single-aisle: 70% of units; Wide-bodies: 55% of value
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
24,000
22,900
New Deliveries
-
20,000
16,000
32,600
12,000
GMF 2015 -2034
8,100
8,000
4,000
1,600
0
% units
% value
Single-aisle
Twin-aisle
Very Large Aircraft
70%
25%
5%
45%
43%
12%
Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and
jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF May 2015
Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth
World real GDP and passenger traffic
May 2015
Passenger Traffic
+5.8%
% (year-over-year)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
World real GDP
World passenger traffic (ASKs)
-2%
-4%
Q2JQ3
Q4JQ1
Q2JQ3
Q4JQ1
Q2J
JQ1MQ2
M JQ3SQ4
N JQ1
MQ2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
MQ2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
M Q2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
M Q2
M JQ3
S Q4
N JQ1
MM
SN
MM
SN
MM
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: IHS Economics, OAG, Airbus GMF2015
A two-speed economic world
Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth
Real GDP growth (%)
History
10%
8%
Forecast
Emerging
economies*
6%
4%
2%
Advanced
economies**
0%
-2%
-4%
1982
1986
1990
* 54 emerging economies
** 32 advanced economies
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
Emerging
economies will
continue to
lead the pack
Emerging/
Developing
China
India
Middle East
Asia
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Advanced
Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions
Western Europe
North America
Japan
6.3
billion
people
2014
1
billion
people
2014
Yearly RPK growth
2015 - 2034
+5.8 %
+3.8 %
Middle Class to grow, doubling in emerging countries…
Middle Class*, millions of people
History
Forecast
5,000
3,671
4,000
Emerging countries
2,703
3,000
2,000
4,721
1,792
3,977
2,936
2,001
1,000
0
1,120
North America
247
425
259
444
263
471
264
480
2004
2014
2024
2034
6,400
7,200
8,000
8,600
World Population
28%
37%
46%
55%
% of world population
Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF2015
Europe
* Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2014 prices
Private consumption to become important growth driver in emerging markets
Share of total world private consumption (%)
100%
Emerging
markets to
represent
90%
-
80%
70%
Advanced
Economies
60%
world private
consumption by
2034, up from
50%
40%
31% today
30%
20%
10%
43% of the
23%
31%
37%
43%
Emerging
Economies
0%
2004
2014
2024
2034
Source: IHS Economics, Airbus
GMF2015
Europeans and North American are the most willing to fly…
2014 trips per capita
Propensity to
travel
100.00
-
10.00
25%
1.00
of the population of
the emerging
countries took a
trip a year in
North America
1.63 trips per capita
Europe
0.10
PRC
2014
India
0.01
0.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2014 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus
GMF2015
…but by 2034, PRC will reach current European levels
2034 trips per capita
Propensity to
travel
100.00
-
10.00
74%
1.00
Europe
PRC
0.10
of the population of
the emerging
countries will take
a trip a year in
North America
India
2034
0.01
0.00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2014 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus
GMF2015
Air travel has proven to be resilient to external shocks
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
Oil Crisis
Oil Crisis
Gulf Crisis
7
Asian
Crisis
9/11 SARS
Financial
Crisis
World traffic
-
6
85%
5
growth since 9/11
85%
4
3
2
1
0
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
Source: ICAO, Airbus
Air traffic will double in the next 15 years
World annual RPK* (trillion)
ICAO total traffic
Airbus GMF 2015
16
14
12
10
x2
8
6
2014-2034
4
4.6%
2
0
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF2015
Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2034
RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)
% of 2014
20-year
growth
29%
5.7%
36%
Europe
25%
3.6%
21%
North America
25%
2.5%
17%
Middle East
9%
6.7%
13%
5%
5.2%
6%
4%
4.9%
4%
3%
5.3%
3%
0
Asia-Pacific
1,000
2014 traffic
Latin America
CIS
Africa
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2015-2034 traffic
20-year
world annual
traffic growth
4.6%
6,000 world RPK
% of 2034
world RPK
Domestic PRC will be the largest O&D traffic flow
Annual O&D traffic per flow (billion RPK)
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
Intra Western Europe
Western Europe - USA
Domestic Asia Emerging
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic India
Indian Subcontinent - Middle East
PRC - USA
Western Europe - South America
Asia Emerging - Western Europe
South America - USA
Domestic Brazil
Western Europe - PRC
Indian Subcontinent - USA
Central Europe - Western Europe
Australia & New Zealand - Western Europe
Middle East - USA
Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe
Asia Advanced - Asia Emerging
x 3.8
x 1.4
-
50%
x 1.7
x 1.7
x 3.7
x 2.4
x 5.8
x 3.4
x 4.1
x 2.2
x 2.4
x 2.8
x 2.9
x 3.0
x 3.8
x 2.5
x 2.4
x 4.1
x 2.5
x 3.1
200
400
600
Asia Pacific
leading growth
of the top twenty
traffic flows will
involve Asia Pacific
2014
2034
800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
More productive seats…
Yearly offered seats per aircraft
250
Avg. number of yearly offered seats per aircraft (000)
Load factors
85%
World passenger load factors (%)
80%
200
75%
+46%
150
+17
percentage
points
70%
65%
100
60%
50
55%
0
50%
1980
1985
1990
1995
Source: OAG, Ascend, ICAO, Airbus GMF2015
2000
2005
2010 2014
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 2014
Less fuel burn, therefore less emissions…
Fuel consumption
7
Kilograms per 100 RPKs (avg.)
6
-33%
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2001
2002
Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus GMF2015
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Short to medium term forecasts have been revised down
Brent oil price (US$ per bbl. in nominal 2015)
History
160
IHS Energy
Forecast
Oil prices
-
Oil price down but
trend uncertain
140
120
Short-term good for
airline profitability
100
80
Medium-term boost
for global GDP
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: IHS Energy, Oxford Economics
70% of traffic growth until 2034 will be coming from existing network
1.5
Monthly Trillion RPK
Growth from
new routes
1.2
0.9
Growth from
existing network
0.6
0.3
0.0
2014
2034
47 Aviation Mega-Cities in 2014
2014 Aviation Mega-Cities
47
Aviation
Mega-cities
0.9M
90%+
Daily Passengers:
long-haul traffic to/
from/via MegaCities
of long-haul traffic
on routes
to/from/via
47 cities
22%
of World
GDP
in 2014
Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF2015
•
•
•
>50 000 daily long-haul passengers
… and 91 Mega-Cities by 2034
91
Aviation
Mega-cities
2.3M
95%+
Daily Passengers:
Long-Haul traffic
to/ from/via MegaCities
of long-haul traffic
on routes
to/from/via
91 cities
35%
of World
GDP
in 2034
Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF2015
•
•
•
These airports are already largely congested
39 out of the
47 Aviation
Mega Cities are
scheduleconstrained
today
*Aviation Mega-Cities International
Airports
 IATA WSG level 1: airport
infrastructure is adequate
 IATA WSG level 2: airports with
potential for congestion
 IATA WSG level 3: airports
Source: IATA WSG database, Airbus GMF
where conditions make it
impossible to meet demand
The bigger the city, the wealthier the population
GDP per capita ratio between Aviation Mega-Cities and regional average
47
North America
+25%
Europe
+60%
Aviation
Mega-cities
CIS
+300%
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
+90%
+320%
+160%
+290%
Source: Oxford Economics, UNPD, IHS
Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015
Routes between Aviation Mega-cities have more premium passengers
Percentage of premium passengers on routes types
Percentage of
premium
between AMC
2014
16%
14%
12%
14%
10%
8%
14%
6%
10%
8%
4%
compared to 11%
average
international longhaul
2%
0%
Aviation Mega-City to Aviation
Mega-City
Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long-haul, flight
distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
Aviation Mega-City <>
Secondary City
Secondary City to Secondary
City
Source: Sabre (September 2014 data),
Airbus GMF2015
Demand for some 32,600 new passenger and freighter aircraft
Fleet in service evolution: 2015-2034
38,500
40,000
35,000
30,000
19,500
Growth
25,000
20,000
32,600
New
aircraft
19,000
15,000
13,100
10,000
Replacement
5,000
5,900
Stay in service
0
Beginning 2015
2034
Source: Airbus
Note: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats,
Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes
Summary
• Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth
• Oil price down but trend uncertain
o Short-term good for airline profitability
o Medium-term boost for global GDP
• Demand for 32,600 new aircraft by 2034 – ~31,800 passenger aircraft and 800 freighters
• 13,100 passenger aircraft needed for replacement, largely single-aisle
• Single-aisle represent 70% of demand in units, but wide-bodies represent 55% of value
• VLA demand largely concentrated on Aviation Mega-cities
but network efficiencies will drive proliferation of new VLA destinations
© AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LDT, Airbus Opeartions SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary
document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the
express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith.
Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.

Global Market Forecast

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