Long-Term Trading

TABLE OF
CONTENTS
PREFACE
vii
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 2
NOVICE
1
7
Laying the Foundation 8
The Auction 10
Organizing the Day 11
Challenging the Rules 16
The Role of the Marketplace 16
Going with the Crowd 18
Introduction to Day Timeframe Structure
19
Normal Day 20
Normal Variation of a Normal Day 22
Trend Day 22
iii
iv
Contents
Double-Distribution Trend Day
Nontrend Day 27
Neutral Day 27
Day Type Summary 29
CHAPTER 3
ADVANCED BEGINNER
25
33
Building the Framework 34
The Big Picture: Market Structure, Trading Logic and Time 34
A Synthesis: Structure, Time, and Logic 35
Evaluating Other Timeframe Control 38
Other Timeframe Control on the Extremes 40
Other Timeframe Control in the Body of the Profile 40
Initiative versus Responsive Activity 45
Trending versus Bracketed Markets 49
Key Elements—A Brief Discussion 54
The Two Big Questions 57
CHAPTER 4 COMPETENT 59
Doing the Trade 59
Section I: Day Timeframe Trading 60
Day Timeframe Directional Conviction 61
Open Within Value 75
Open Outside of Value but Within Range 80
Open Outside of Range 84
Day Timeframe Visualization and Pattern Recognition
124
The Liquidity Data Bank 135
High- and Low-Volume Areas 159
High-Volume Examples 162
Low-Volume Examples 169
Summary—Day Timeframe Trading
176
Section II: Long-Term Trading 177
Long-Term Directional Conviction
177
Attempted Direction: Which Way Is the
Market Trying to Go? 178
Directional Performance: Is the Market Doing a Good Job
in Its Attempts to Get There? 187
Long-Term Auction Rotations 204
Long-Term Short Covering and Long Liquidation 248
Contents
Corrective Action 259
Long-Term Profiles 262
Special Situations 272
3-I Days 273
Neutral-Extreme Days 277
The Value-Area Rule 278
Spikes 280
Balance Area Break-outs 288
Gaps 292
Summary 298
Markets to Stay Out Of 300
Nontrend Days 300
Nonconviction Days 300
Long-Term Nontrend Markets 302
News-Influenced Markets 304
Summary 304
News 304
Summary 309
Beyond the Competent Trader 310
CHAPTER 5 PROFICIENT 311
The Results Equation: Market Understanding x
(Self-Understanding + Strategy) = Results 312
Self-Understanding: Becoming a Successful Trader 313
Self-Observation 315
The Whole-Brained Trader 316
The Left Hemisphere 317
The Right Hemisphere 317
Combining the Two Hemispheres 317
Strategy 318
A Business Strategy 319
Summary 327
CHAPTER 6
APPENDIX 1
THE EXPERT TRADER
329
VALUE-AREA CALCULATION
Volume Value-Area Calculation 331
TPO Value-Area Calculation 333
331
v
vi
Contents
APPENDIX 2 REFERENCE TEXTS AND
EDUCATIONAL LITERATURE 335
Literature 335
Courses on Audio Cassette 336
Recommended Reading 336
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
INDEX
339
337
PREFACE
E
xcellence in any endeavor, be it carpentry, medicine, athletics or futures trading, is only achieved through a careful balance between the
analytical and intuitive powers of your mind.
A skilled carpenter blends his or her knowledge of angles, tools and
building materials with the creativity of mind and body that comes only
from years of experience in the craft. The expert surgeon is also keenly
aware of the fusion of knowledge and intuition. Regardless of the number of diagnostic tests, once the incision is made knowledge takes a back
seat to intuitive judgment, for every patient's physiology is different.
The key element that has long separated tremendously successful
traders from all others is their intuitive understanding that time regulates
all financial opportunities. In 1984, J. Peter Steidlmayer formally introduced the Market Profile as a way to graphically depict the acceptance or
rejection of price over time. For the first time, what had once been the
domain of the intuitive trader was now accessable to all traders.
The ability to record price information according to time has unleashed huge amounts of useful market information in a form never
before available. In turn, this information explosion has triggered a new
way of looking at markets and opened the doors for accelerated levels of
market analysis.
vii
viii
Preface
Mind over Markets is a book about learning; learning the dynamics of
markets through the organization of price, time and volume, and learning how to synthesize this information with your own intuition.
Our goal is to arrive at a healthy balance between the powers of
objective observation and intuitive decision making—a rare talent possessed by only the best of traders.
Acknowledgements
Our thanks to the individuals and organizations named below extends
far beyond the scope of the writing of this book. Mind over Markets is
born out of years of teaching, research and trading. In one way or
another, the following individuals and companies have made a significant contribution to this effort:
/. Peter Steidlmayer, who pioneered the theories upon which much of
our work is based. When I1 first met Pete in 1985, one of the first questions I asked was "If your theories are so good, why share them with
anyone else?" Pete's response was not what one would expect from a
successful commodity trader. He said, "The market has been good to me.
Like Marshall Field's contribution to the city of Chicago was the Field
Museum, my contribution to the financial world is a better way to
trade."
Peter Steidlmayer has always encouraged his students to take the
information he has provided and make it their own. In less than five
years, we have witnessed the birth of new types of quotation software,
databases, and all forms of expanded market research. Such is the
natural process that follows any significant new discovery. Given the
magnitude of the contribution that Peter Steidlmayer has made to the
financial markets, this information expansion will likely continue for a
long time.
Norman Hovda, who, as a broker in the Soybean Meal pit at the
Chicago Board of Trade, observed Pete Steidlmayer as he came into the
pit to trade. It was Norman who first introduced me to Pete, and that
meeting has since changed the way we look at markets. One of the
"equations" to which you will be introduced in this book is: Market Understanding + (Self Understanding x Strategy) = Results. Norman's specialty
is Self Understanding. Although he remains a member of both the
While this section reflects the thoughts of all three authors, for stylistic
reasons, it is written from the perspective of James F. Dalton.
Preface
ix
Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Board Options Exchange, his
primary focus is consulting businesses, schools and families on 'tools' for
Self-Help. Norman resides in Wilmette, Illinois.
Donald Jones, president of CISCO, a Chicago-based research and
database firm, has helped us in countless ways over the years. CISCO
was the first database to begin providing the Market Profile and Liquidity Data Bank to the public. In addition to providing the data for
many of the illustrations presented in these pages, Don has also taken
the time on numerous occassions to share his ideas and analytical research.
Elaine Dalton, for her unwavering support both as a partner in business and partner at home.
Barton J. Hanson, whose literary efforts and market research as
Senior Editor of the Profile Report are indirectly woven into portions of
this book.
Cletus Dobbs, for his vivid explanation of how the auction process
works in the "real world"—at a livestock sale. Cletus is a rancher in
Texas.
Commodity Quote Graphics (CQG), for their quality ongoing technical
support over the years. CQG is also responsible for the majority of the
charts and data presented in this book.
CBOT Market Profile®, Market Profile®, Liquidity Data Bank® and
LDB® are registered trademarks of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT),
which holds exclusive copyright to both the Market Profile® and Liquidity Data Bank® graphics. The graphics herein were reproduced with
the permission of the Chicago Board of Trade. Nothing herein should be
considered as a trading recommendation of the Chicago Board of Trade.
The views expressed in this publication are exclusively those of Dalton
Capital Management, Inc.
James F. Dalton
Eric T. Jones
Robert B. Dalton
J
im Kelvin was a retired cattle rancher from Texas. He had developed
an interest in the futures market during the years when he would
hedge his livestock at opportune prices. After he sold his ranching business, he began to experiment with a few small trades as a hobby.
Jim read everything he could find on futures trading. He studied all
the technical models, read manual after manual on market analysis, attended seminars and kept point and figure charts. In time, he felt he had
a firm grasp on all the factors that make the market tick and began to
look at trading as a serious vocation. He wasn't making money, but he
thought he was just "paying his dues" as he learned the intricacies of his
trading system.
One morning Jim got up at 6:00, as he always did, and went to his
study to turn on his quote monitors and prepare for the market's open.
He picked up The Wall Street Journal to see what the bank traders and
brokerage analysts were saying about the foreign exchange market. He
had been watching the Japanese yen closely, because he felt the recent
depth of coverage in the news would surely reveal some good trade opportunities. The US. dollar was expected to record new lows because of
a slowing U.S. economy and consistently negative trade balances, forcing
the yen and other currencies higher. All the foreign exchange related articles on his quote equipment news service were bullish for the yen.
1
2
Chapter 1
A good friend and fellow trader called and commented on how the
currencies should rally that day. Jim then checked the 24-day channel
model and the 16-32-day moving average cross-over model, two longer
term technical indicators on which he frequently based his trading-both
had been generating buy signals for some time.
Jim glanced over his charts and volume numbers and chewed on
the end of a pencil. At the end of every day, he conducted a personal
analysis of the market's structure and wrote down possible trades for the
following day. Last night he had written "weakening yen-look for opportunity to sell" The yen had been in an upward trend for some time,
but in recent weeks volume was drying up. Price was moving higher,
but activity was decreasing and there had been no substantial moves to
the up side in over a week.
He knew from his ranching days that less volume was significant.
When he would auction off his livestock, the price would continue up
until the last buyer had bought. When the auction was nearing its end,
the bulk of the buyers would have dropped out because they had fulfilled their inventory requirement or the price was too high. When no
one was left to buy, the auction was over.
He read his analysis again. Common market sense told him that the
up auction in the yen was over. There were no more buyers. But what
about all the fundamental and technical indicators?
''All these professionals can't be wrong," Jim said to himself. "I
can't sell the yen."
The market was going to open in less than five minutes. Jim stared
at his blank monitor for a moment, thinking about what his friend had
said. He put his hand on the phone, but did not pick it up.
The yen opened higher, rose a few ticks, and then stalled. The floor
traders were acting on the recent bullish sentiment, but the buyers that
had driven the yen up for the past month were nowhere to be found. He
just sat and watched his terminal. It's going to break . . . I should sell, he
thought. The flashing green price on his quote screen began to drop as
he sank deeper into his chair and indecision tightened its grip.
What happened? Jim Kelvin's decision making process was jammed
by the conflict between his own intuition and popular opinion. "How
can the majority be wrong?"
The majority of people who trade futures don't make money. In
fact, over 90 percent aren't successful enough to justify being in the
market. If you trade with the majority, then you will fare only as well as
the average, and the average market participant does not make money!
He was caught, like the goat that starves to death between two piles
of hay, in the conflict of multiple sources of information indicating op-
Introduction
3
posite conditions. Jim's common sense and firm understanding of the
market's auction process told him the yen was weak and should have
been sold, but he let himself become frozen by the power of the majority.
All the fundamental and technical indicators agreed—everyone was
predicting the bull trend to continue.
The difference is relatively simple, Jim was basing his opinion on
current market information—he was "listening" to the evolving market—
while all the other sources were based on information that was history
and no longer relevant to what the market was doing in the present tense.
What if a baseball catcher waited to see how fast a man stealing
second could run or pondered how often he was successful before he
threw the ball? There is no way the throw would be in time. A good
catcher operates solely in the present tense. He feels when the steal is on
and reacts immediately, just as an experienced trader feels the direction
of the market and reacts immediately.
Similarly, if a linebacker waited until he could see what the offense
was doing or tried to read the play by watching the scoreboard, he
would never make the key tackle. He reads the offense by recognizing
patterns learned from experience and by trusting his intuition—sensing
the play. To wait is to miss the opportunity. If you wait until a market
has committed itself in a direction, you are too late.
In Mind over Markets, our goal is to teach you how to "read the
plays." In more concrete terms, you will learn how to identify the information generated by the market, understand its implications, and act on
your knowledge. However, this is not a book about a trading system that
works or does not work. The Market Profile is not a black box that dogmatically tells you when to buy and sell commodities. This is a book on
learning. This a book on observing and understanding the market.
Mind aver Markets is organized around the five basic steps in the
learning process, roughly corresponding to the five stages of skill acquisition discussed in the book Mind over Machine, by Hubert and
Stewart Dreyfus.
To illustrate these stages, imagine a young man named David. He
attends a concert at his college given by a well known contemporary
pianist. While listening to Beethoven's haunting "Moonlight Sonata," he
is moved by the pure emotion expressed in the piece and decides he
must learn to play the piano. The next day he arranges for his first lesson.
In the first few weeks, David learns to "recognize objective facts and
features relevant to the skill and acquires rules for determining actions
based on those facts and features."1 In other words, he reaches the first
Hubert Dreyfus and Stewart Dreyfus, Mind over Machine (New York: The Free
Press, 1986), pp. 21-36.
4
Chapter 1
stage of learning: the novice. He learns that the black ellipse with a stem is
a note, and that a note placed on the bottom line of the treble staff is an
I. He is shown where the E is on the keyboard and can then press the
corresponding key to sound the note.
David can look at a sheet of music, and by reducing it into individual parts, he can find the right keys and play the song. Of course,
this it a slow, painstaking process that forces listeners to use their imagination when trying to make out any semblance of melody.
After a month of lessons and regular practice, David becomes an
advanced beginner. By playing a song over and over, he goes beyond the
note by note struggle and begins to achieve some continuity of melody.
Experience improves his performance. He still sees the song as a series of
notes on a page, but begins to feel the flow that allows a recognizable
song to emerge. David can play "Amazing Grace" so it actually sounds
like "Amazing Grace" and not some array of notes in random rhythm.
As the years go by, David reaches the third level and becomes a
competent pianist. Most musicians never pass this stage to become proficient or expert. He sees each song as a whole, a certain expression to be
performed with a definite goal in mind. He still plays by reading the
notes, but he achieves some degree of emotion and purpose in his playing,
An important distinction must be made here. David plays with the
emotion of the written expression in the piece (crescendos and fortes,
etc.), not with individual interpretation. He performs much like a
machine that very accurately converts the musical score into a sonata or
concerto.
This level of competency can lead to excellent performances, for
most written music is thoroughly marked to show the composer's emotion. These marks have literal meaning, such as quiet (pianissimo), or
pronounced and sharp (staccato). David plays Bach's "Prelude in E
Minor" flawlessly at a recital and receives a standing ovation for his
technical excellence.
However, David is still a person playing an instrument, much like a
computer running a complicated flow chart. To advance to the next level,
proficiency, he must transcend the physical notes on paper (the rules) and
become deeply involved in the music.
To reach the fourth level and become proficient, David must learn
the actual notes of a piece so well that he no longer has to think of them.
The written work becomes a part of his mind, a holistic image, allowing
him to interpret the music. This comes from experience—in life as well as
hours of practice at the keyboard. The pianist must rely on his intuitive
ability to express emotion through the piano, leaving behind the fact that
the piece is in E flat in 6/8 time. Therefore, if David is proficient, he will
Introduction
5
feel the emotion that Bach created and, drawing on his own emotions
and experience, convey that emotion in his playing.
Music that surpasses the competent level goes beyond the auditorily
aesthetic and involves the listeners. Hearing a proficient musician is
often a deeply moving experience, for passionate music arises from the
emotion of the performer and strikes similar chords in the listener. This
cannot be explained in rational terms, for one cannot teach the expression of true emotion. Only through experience and involvement can
proficiency be reached.
The final stage is labeled by Dreyfus and Dreyfus as expertise. David
has studied piano for many years and knows the instrument inside and
out. When he plays, the piano becomes an extension of his body. It is as
if the music comes straight from his mind, which in an important way it
does. He no longer thinks of individual notes or any rules when his
hands are on the keyboard.
An expert musician feels the melody, and the song lives as an expression of his feeling. The mechanical aspects are fully ingrained, leaving the brain to its wonderful powers of creation. Listening to an expert
musician is like peering into his thoughts and feeling the weight of his
sadness or the exhilaration of his joy. It is a mode of expression that
transcends all rules and calculative rationality to become pure expression. Few people reach the expert level, in any field.
This example was meant to introduce you to the basic levels of skill
acquisition that we will attempt to take you through in learning to trade
the futures market successfully. However, learning is a process that requires a great deal of time and effort, and learning to be an expert trader
is no exception. The musician spends many hours of rote memorization
and practice to develop experience and skill. Successful trading requires
the same discipline and hard work
Many perceive futures trading to be a glamorous, high-profit venture for those with the nerve to trade and that, through the purchase of
mechanical systems and computer software, you can bypass the time and
dedication it takes to succeed in other professions.
In reality, there are few glamorous professions. Some, like the musk
industry, reward the best quite impressively. It is easy for the naive
music lover to glamorize performers like Bert Bacharach, Frank Sinatra
and Billy Joel. However, if we dig deep behind the sell-out stadium concerts and multi-platinum albums, the music business is not much different than any other profession. For every Simon and Garfunkel there
are literally millions of aspiring young musicians who spend endless
hours of dedication and frustration learning and perfecting their profes-
6
Chapter
1
sion. Even the established superstars spent uncounted days perfecting
each song and their musical ability to achieve recognition.
Because of the difficulty of making it big, many musicians "burnout/' The process of becoming good enough to succeed brings with it the
potential for failure, and the process of becoming an expert trader is just
as difficult. The learning in this book goes beyond technical systems into
areas of self-understanding that might reveal weakness in your abilities
of self and market observation, discipline, and objectivity. Also, much of
the information in this book differs from the accepted models of market
analysis. Just as you will learn that the best trades fly in the face of the
most recent market activity, the information in this book flies in the face
of most current opinions and theories on trading and understanding the
market.
Futures trading is not a glamorous or profitable experience for most
of the people who attempt to trade. Futures trading is a profession, and
it takes as much time and dedication to succeed as any other profession.
You will start as a beginner, learning the objective basks about the
profile, then proceed through the stages towards the ultimate goal of any
professional in any trade—becoming an expert.
N
ovice is the first stage in any process. No one starts out an expert, or
even an advanced beginner. To learn any skill, you must begin by
learning the necessary objective facts and features—the tools with which
you will build your skill from the ground up. Just as a carpenter learns
the function of a saw, hammer, and plane before attempting to make his
first basic bird feeder, you must learn the mechanics of the Market
Profile before you make your first basic market decisions.
The learning that occurs during the novice stage is largely rote
memorization. The carpenter is taught the workings of his tools; the
aspiring pianist is taught the definitions that form the base of all music
theory. This learning comes from a derivative source, such as a book or a
teacher, and does not involve the novice in any active way as he or she
sits and listens or reads. Some degree of derivative learning is necessary,
especially during the early stages, but in the words of the ancient Greek
philosopher Heraclitus, "Much learning does not teach understanding."
Only through experience and extensive practice and application will understanding and expertise arise.
Throughout this book (a derivative source) there are many definitions and patterns to memorize. It is important to remember, however,
that the information is only part of a larger whole that will develop as
you read and attempt to assimilate what you have learned with your
personality, individual trading style, and experience. Keep an open mind
7
8
Chapter 2
and actively apply the new knowledge to your observations of the
marketplace.
Perhaps some of your established beliefs have already been thrown
into question. In the example at the beginning of the book, Jim the yen
trader is torn between the different sources of information: fundamental,
technical and market-generated. All the fundamental sources (newspapers, trade magazines, personal advice) and technical sources (channel
models, moving averages, etc.) were predicting a rally in the foreign currencies. The market-generated information, which is the market's price
activity recorded in relation to time in a statistical bell curve, was indicating a market that had reached the top of the up movement. This is
not to say that all technical gurus, financial writers, and market analysts
are useless—there is just no greater indication of what the market is
doing than the market itself!
The Market Profile is a conduit for listening to the market. It is merely a
graph that plots time on one axis and price on the other to give a visual
impression of market activity. This representation takes the form of a
statistical bell curve, just like your high school teacher used. Most students scored in the middle of the bell curve with C's, while fewer
received A's and F's. Similarly, the majority of a day's transactional
volume takes place in a common range of prices with less trading on the
day's extremes (see Figure 2-1).
The Market Profile is simply a way of organizing market activity as it
unfolds. It is not a system that predicts tops and bottoms or trend continuation any more than the teacher's grade chart is an indicator of overall student intelligence. The Market Profile is an evolving gauge that
accurately reflects market activity in the present tense, a gauge being
defined as a passive device that exists only to measure something. The
key to the Market Profile lies in correctly reading this information.
Laying the Foundation
In this section, we will discuss the definitions and concepts that form the
foundation for learning to understand the market through the Market
Profile. As has been stated before, this is a challenging task. Everything
you learn about the Market Profile is interrelated and integral to a complete understanding of the market Each concept is like a piece in an
intricate puzzle that should be studied to determine its place in the
developing picture. If you file each piece away as a separately defined
definition, you will be left with a jumble of seemingly unrelated facts.
But, if you continually integrate each section of the book with what you
have already learned, the picture will slowly emerge.
10
Chapter 2
The Auction
Jim Kelvin intuitively knew that the bull trend in the yen was over because of his days in the ranching business. At first glance, the futures
market seems to have very little to do with cattle ranching. However,
they are both markets, and all markets share a common auction process
through which trade is conducted.
As Jim Kelvin sat before his quote monitor on that morning, he
recalled one of the last days he took his livestock to auction. Price for
feeder cattle had been steadily climbing for several months, reaching a
high of 86 cents, but the number of steers sold had fallen significantly
during the previous week's auction. The meat processers had cut back
their purchasing to the bare minimum at higher prices, buying just
enough to keep their processing plants operating and to meet their contract obligations* Jim knew that price would have to auction lower to
find renewed buying.
A steer was led into the auction barn. The sale barn manager at one
end of the circular corral called out the starting price, "Do I hear 80 cents
for this fine feeder steer?" The opening call was too high and did not get
a "raise" from the men standing around the perimeter of the circle. "78? .
. . 76? . . . do I hear 74 cents?" Finally, a buyer entered the auction,
starting the bidding at 72 cents. After a small rally as buyers called out
their offers, the steer was sold at 76 cents a pound. The up auction over
the last few months in the cattle market had ended. Price had to auction
lower to attract buyers.
During some auctions there would be an immediate response to the
opening bid, and price would move up quickly. "Do I hear 82? I have an
offer for 82 . . . Do I hear 84? . . . 85?" as the men around the perimeter of
the ring cried out their offers.
Other times, the initial price would be too high, and the auctioneer
would quickly lower the bid, "Do I hear 78? .. . 77? . . . 76 for this fine
steer?" The price would back off until a buyer entered the auction, then
price would begin to move upward, often auctioning beyond the opening price. Once the auction got started, competition and anxiety among
buyers sometimes drove the market beyond the prices that were initially
rejected as too high. Price would continue up until only one buyer
remained. "Ninety two going once, twice, three times . . . sold," then the
auction was over.
The futures market auctions in a similar manner. If the open is considered below value, price auctions higher in search of sellers. If the open
is considered too high by the market's participants, price auctions lower,
searching for buyers. Once a buyer enters the market, price begins to
auction upward until the last buyer has bought. Similarly, the market
Novice
11
auctions downward until the last seller has sold, constantly searching for
information.
As you progress through this book, the importance of the marker's
auction process will become evident. And, with the aid of the Market
Profile, you will soon see that the futures market's auction process is by
no means a "random walk"
Organizing the Day
The basic building blocks of the Market Profile are called Time Price Opportunities, or IPO's. Each half hour of the trading day is designated by
a letter. If a certain price is traded during a given half hour, the corresponding letter, or TPO, is marked next to the price. Figure 2-2 shows
each half hour segment separately alongside the completed profile. On a
side note, Treasury bonds trade in 32nds of $1,000, and one tick is worth
$31.25 ($1,000 divided by 32). In the bond market on this day, the prices
traded during the first thirty minutes (A period) ranged from 9629/32 to
9710/32. The next time period (B period) traded from 9631/32 to 974/32, and
so on. The resulting Profile is shown in Figure 2-2.
We will now proceed through the same day in the bonds step-bystep, explaining in detail how to read the basic information generated by
the market through the Market Profile "gauge." The numbers in the following discussion refer to Figure 2-3.
1. The price range resulting from market activity during the first
two time periods (the first hour) for most commodities is called
the initial balance (slightly longer in the S&P). In the Treasury
Bond example shown in Figure 2-3, the initial balance was established from 9629/32 to 9710/32 by the floor traders, or locals,
during A and B periods. The initial balance represents the
period of time in which the locals attempt to find a range
where two-sided trade can take place—a range where both the
buyer and seller agree to conduct trade. Locals trade mostly in
the day timeframe and provide liquidity, not direction, in the
market by acting as middlemen between the off-floor traders.
Their purpose is not to make one or two big trades every day,
but to make a few ticks on a large volume of trades. The local
is typically responsible for over 50 percent of the day's trading
volume.
The local's role is like a car dealer—a middleman between
the producer and consumer. The dealer's goal is to move his
inventory quickly to make a small profit on each sale. He must
12
Chapter 2
Novice
13
14
Chapter 2
buy from the producer, like General Motors, at a price he finds
fair, then turn around and sell to the consumer at a price that
will attract buying while maintaining a degree of profit. The
local on the floor of the exchange acts in the same way, buying
from long-term sellers and selling to long-term buyers, who
only enter the market when they feel price is away from value.
We will refer to the long-term market participants as the
"other" timeframe, for long term is a highly subjective concept
and can represent a trade that spans anywhere from several
days (sometimes called a swing hade) to several months.
"Other" separates the traders whose participation spans more
than one day from the locals, who operate solely in the shortest
timeframe. The importance of the other timeframe participants
will be discussed at greater length throughout the book, for it
is the other timeframe activity that moves and shapes the
market, just as General Motors and the consumer shape the
automotive market. Understanding what the other timeframe is
doing is vital in successfully trading the futures market.
2. In D period, the other timeframe seller enters the market and
extends the range down to 9625/32. Any movement in price
beyond the initial balance set up by the local in the first hour of
trading is called range extension, and signifies that something
has changed because of other timeframe buyer or seller
presence. The local is not responsible for any major moves in
the market. It is the other timeframe that can move price substantially.
Again, in D period, it is evident that the other timeframe
seller entered the market and extended the range on the down
side. Either the other timeframe buyer will respond to these
lower prices, or the other timeframe seller will continue to auction price lower in search for buyers.
3. The responsive buyer did enter the market around 9624/32, and
price balanced around the lower portion of the day's range
until K period. An hour before the market's close, the other
timeframe seller probed downward once again beginning with
the K print at 9625/32 and extending down to 9617/32 but was
met by the buyer responding to lower prices, forcing price back
to close in the middle of the range.
4. The range refers to the entire height of the Profile—from the
high to the low. On this day range was 9617/32 to 9710/32.
5. All activity below the initial balance is other timeframe seller
range extension (just as all activity above the initial balance is
Novice
6.
7.
8.
9.
15
other timeframe buyer range extension). Any activity above
9710/32 or below 9629/32 is range extension on this day.
The area where 70 percent of the day's business is conducted
(roughly one standard deviation) is called the value area. This is
logical, for the middle part of the bell curve is where most activity occurs and indicates two-sided trade took place in the
day timeframe. Similarly, in a teacher's grading curve, most
students score in the middle ranges, which is reflected in the
wider middle area of the bell curve. If both buyer and seller are
actively participating in an area, then that area is accepted as
value by both parties. On July 25 in the bonds, value was accepted between 9624/32 and 973/32. The value area can be easily
calculated using TPOs or actual price/volume figures. A
sample calculation of the value area is shown in Appendix 1.
The single "K" TPOs at the lower extreme of the Profile are
called a single-print buying tail. This is an important reference
point, for it indicates that the other timeframe buyer responded
strongly to price advertised below value, rejecting price out of
the lower range in one time period (K). Competition among
buyers for contracts causes price to move quickly. Therefore,
the longer the tail, the stronger the other timeframe activity. A
tail occuring during the last period of the day is not technically
a tail, for it cannot be validated by rejection in subsequent time
periods. In addition, a tail must be at least two TPOs long to
have any real significance.
The four single A prints at the top of the day's range are a
single-print selling tail. This tail shares the same significance as
the other timeframe buying tail in K period. The other
timeframe seller reacted to higher prices, quickly moving price
lower. Attempts to auction beyond the single-print tail by trading up into that price range in subsequent time periods (C and
D) met strong resistance, showing seller strength at those
prices.
The longest line of TPOs closest to the center of the range is
called the point of control. This is the price where the most activity occurred during the day, and it is therefore the fairest
price in the day timeframe. The greatest amount of time was
spent trading at that price, signifying greatest value. This concept will be further developed later, for it is of great importance in monitoring other timeframe activity in the day
timeframe.
16
Chapter 2
10. M period denotes the closing range, which is the market's last
indication of overall sentiment for the day. It is used as a reference point against the following day's open to see if the underlying market sentiment has changed.
Challenging the Rules
You should now have a feel for reading the basic indicators of the
Market Profile. Many concepts were introduced, some undoubtedly
foreign to the opinions you were taught and the rules you learned about
the futures market. Roger von Oech, author of A Whack on the Side of the
Head, challenges the power of "the rules."
. . . there is a lot of pressure in our culture to follow the rules.
This value is one of the first things we learn as children. We
are told, "Don't color out-side the lines," and "No orange
elephants." Our educational system encourages further rulefollowing. Students are usually better rewarded for regurgitating information than for playing with ideas and thinking of
original uses for things. As a consequence, people feel more
comfortable following rules than challenging them.
Challenging the rules is a good creative thinking strategy,
but that's not all. Never challenging the rules brings with i t . . .
potential dangers.1
Understanding the Market Profile requires more than the regurgitation of a list of concepts; it requires the ability to challenge the rules and
look beyond the restricting confines of popular opinion. Look over the
basics we just covered again. David had to know the basics of the music
score before he could successfully play "Amazing Grace."
The Role of the Marketplace
Consider the purpose of the market for a moment Most traders don't
take the time to understand the very foundation of the market they are
trying to master. The carpenter could not build a functional bird house if
he never stopped to ask himself "Just what is the purpose of a bird
house?" The reason for this basic oversight is directly related to von
Oech's challenge of the rules. Most people do not want to know the pur1
Roger von Oech, A Whack on the Side of the Head (New York Warner Books,
1983), p. 49.
Novice
17
pose of the market. They do not want to have to think rationally and
objectively about the bigger picture. Most market participants, in fact
most people in general, would rather be given a set of rules to blindly
follow than to have to use personal insight and innovative thought.
Again, the majority of the people who trade futures do not make money.
The purpose of the futures market is similar to any other market. It
exists solely to facilitate trade, and it does so by auctioning from high to
low and low to high, in order to find an area where trade can best be
facilitated.
Think of trade facilitation in terms of your corner grocery store. If
the price of peanut butter is too high, shoppers will refrain from buying,
and the grocer will realize that price is too high. He will then move price
lower until the buyer responds by purchasing the product. If the grocer
moves price too low, however, his inventory will be quickly depleted as
buyers take advantage of price below value. Finally, the price will
balance somewhere in between the two extremes, where value is established and two-sided trade can take place. Price must move too high or
too low before both the grocer and the shopper know it has gone far
enough. The same is true in the futures market. The market auctions up
until the buyer will buy no more, and down until the seller will sell no
more, in the process establishing extremes of price, shown in the profile
as the tapering ends of the bell curve.
Now imagine that Figure 2-3 is a profile of the grocer's peanut butter sales over the period of several months, instead of Treasury bond
sales (in theory, not actual price and individual TPOs). Initially, the price
was set too high, and there were no buyers to generate sales. The grocer
then quickly lowered the price to move his inventory, as shown in the A
period single print selling tail (see point #1 in Figure 2-3). Price went too
low in that same period and buyers bought heavily, allowing the grocer
to move prices back up in B and C period. The extremes of price seemed
to have been established in A period, and value was accepted somewhere in the middle. In D period, however, another seller entered the
market, a supermarket chain two blocks away. The larger store could
afford to charge lower prices, so the local grocer had to cut costs to stay
in business. In the following weeks, value was established near the bottom of the previous lower extreme—value was accepted lower because
of stronger sellers. Finally, the local grocer decided to do a promotional
"peanut butter extravaganza" and substantially lowered price to attract
shoppers. The ploy worked, as shown by the strong buying tail in K
period. The buyers responded to lower prices, allowing the grocer to
raise them to a profitable level once again.
This comparison is intended to bring home the similarity of the
trade facilitation process in all markets. The futures market is a constant
18
Chapter 2
auction looking for a balance between the two major forces behind
market movement: the other timeframe buyer and seller.
Let us look at the role of the other timeframe within the
marketplace from another perspective for a moment. Looking at something in a different light often brings valuable insight. If Gutenberg had
never looked at a wine press as something entirely different, we might
not have the printing press today and you would be reading a manual
hand-written by a scrivener (and paid a lot more for it). Imagine the
other timeframe seller and the other timeframe buyer as two distinct personalities, two separate entities who stand on opposite sides of a
gameboard in the shape of an exchange pit. They both have their fingers
on big buttons, one says "sell" and the other "buy." In the pit are miniature locals, yelling and gesturing as they do their trades. Other
timeframe participants are battling for market control, and they enter the
market when they feel price has gotten away from value or some external information convinces them to act. For example, a significant news
event might cause the other timeframe buyer to enter the market and
drive price upward for the entire day.
This example is obviously only an imaginative idea, but the other
timeframe participants often do act as if they were individuals, and it is
not always possible to tell why they enter the market. The point is, to
successfully trade the futures market, you must understand what the other
timeframe is doing and position yourself with them.
Going with the Crowd
In a classic "Candid Camera" TV show, a man waits for an elevator.
When it arrives, everyone on it is facing the back of the elevator, so he
gets on and faces backwards also. If you blindly follow the majority, you
will usually he going the wrong way. As we said before, the majority of
market participants do not make money.
This is a pretty bold statement, but if you stop and think about how
many times the big name analysts have been plain wrong, it doesn't
seem so far fetched. Nonetheless, when the big movers on the Street talk,
most everybody listens—it is much easier to dogmatically rely on an "expert" than to be a rugged individualist who makes his own decisions.
When you rely solely on yourself, you alone take pride in reaping the
rewards of success—but there is also no one else to blame for defeat. The
tendency to be a follower is not an easy thing to realize or admit. Not
surprisingly, one of the primary reasons many traders use a technical
(mechanical) trading system is to take themselves out of the decision
making process.
Novice
19
These are but a few thoughts to keep in the back of your mind as
we continue through the Novice stage and discuss more labels and
terms. Again, the Market Profile is not a technical or mechanical system,
and the discussion to follow should not be memorized for later "regurgitation." Remember, everything is a part of the larger whole, and "a
little information is a dangerous thing."
Introduction to Day Timeframe Structure
When the local grocer priced his peanut butter below value in the
"peanut butter extravaganza," the consumer bought in a frenzy, leaving
in its wake a single print buying tail. Tails are an important piece of
information in the anatomy of a Market Profile, for they indicate the
presence of the other timeframe buyer or seller. A tail is an identifiable
characteristic with definite implications. Whenever you see that particular pattern, you associate it with a specific set of facts, just as a
linebacker learns, through experience, that certain formations indicate
what the offense is going to do. On a bigger scale, the Market Profile as a
whole tends to fall into readable patterns in the day timeframe, determined by the degree of involvement of the other timeframe participant.
These patterns, when properly identified, can increase the day trader's
success, as well as provide information regarding what the market is
trying to do in the longer term.
The labels we will give these patterns are not as important as understanding how the day evolves in relation to the initial balance and the
confidence with which the other timeframe has entered the market.
Think of the initial balance as a base for the day's trading. The purpose
of a base is to provide support for something, as the base of a lamp
keeps the lamp from tipping over. The narrower the base, the easier it is
to knock the lamp over. The same principle holds true for futures trading
in the day timeframe. If the initial balance is narrow, the odds are greater
that the base will be upset and range extension will occur. Days that
establish a wider base provide more support and the initial balance is
more likely to maintain the extremes for the day.
If you think of the other timeframe as a single personality, as in the
game board analogy, it is possible to judge the activity of all the other
timeframe buyers or sellers according to their level of "confidence." Each
day type is the result of varying degrees and forms of other timeframe
activity, and this activity tends to fall into certain patterns. Keep these
broader concepts of base and confidence in mind as we examine the six
day types.
20
Chapter 2
Normal Day
Dynamics The label "Normal day" is misleading, for in reality, "Normal" days are more the exception than the rule. Normal days are
generally created by swift early entry of the other timeframe participant,
which has the effect of establishing a wide initial balance. Thereafter,
both the other timeframe buyer and seller auction price back and forth
between them, as balanced, two-sided trade ensues.
Normal days are often caused by a news announcement early in the
trading session that triggers a strong other timeframe reaction, driving
price quickly in one direction. For example, suppose that a bearish
economic indicator released shortly after the open causes the other
timeframe seller to aggressively enter the market and drive price lower.
Eventually, price moves low enough to attract other timeframe buying,
thus cutting off the selling activity. For the remainder of the day, there is
little strong directional conviction and price balances between the extremes. An example of a Normal day is shown in Figure 2-4.
Structural Characteristics The primary characteristic of a Normal day
is the wide initial balance, or "base," that is not upset throughout the
day. In Treasury bonds in Figure 2-4, the initial balance was established
in A and B periods from 964/32 to 9714/32—well over a point wide. Other
timeframe sellers entered on the upper extreme because price auctioned
too high, creating a strong single-print selling tail, while other timeframe
buyers entered on the lower extreme as price auctioned too low, creating
a single print buying tail. Price spent the rest of the day auctioning
within the extremes.
On the surface, Normal days might appear easy to trade. However,
imagine the anxiety in placing an order to buy just after price has
dropped over a point! The bottom appears to be literally dropping out of
the market, and you have to pick up that phone and say "buy it." This is
not to say that every time a market drops a point you should step up
and buy—that would be financial suicide. But as we proceed through the
more common day types and you observe them through your own experience, you will begin to develop an understanding of which day
timeframe patterns and logical market situations will give you the confidence to buy against such a break. We bring this up primarily to touch
on two key principles that you will no doubt grow tired of by the end of
this book. They are:
The best trades often fly in the face of the most recent market activity, a
never lose sight of the bigger picture,
Novice
21
22
Chapter 2
Normal Variation of a Normal Day
Dynamics A Normal Variation of a Normal day is characterized by
market activity early in the trading session that is less dynamic than that
of a Normal day. As the day progresses, however, the other timeframe
enters the market and substantially extends the range. It is as if the other
timeframe participant had watched the auctions for a while, then
decided price was opportune and entered aggressively. The other
timeframe's conviction is more evident, due to range extension on this
type of day (compared to a Normal day). In Figure 2-5, the other
timeframe seller auctioned price downward in D period until the other
timeframe buyer responded to lower prices and cut off the selling. For
the remainder of the day, trade is two-sided and a new area of balance is
established.
Structural Characteristics Normal Variations typically do not have
quite as wide of an initial balance as Normal days (Point 1 in Figure 2-5).
The initial balance, or base, is upset on one side by other timeframe
range extension, usually early in the day. In Figure 2-5, the other
timeframe seller extended the range down in D period, "tipping over"
the base to the downside (Point 2). For the duration of the day, the
market's auction process involves the other timeframe buyer, other
timeframe seller, and the local (referred to as two-timeframe trade). On
this day, selling range extension causes value to be established lower
(Point 3).
Trend Day
Dynamics There are two types of Trend days: the "standard" Trend
day and the Double-Distribution Trend day. The most important feature
of a standard Trend day is the high level of directional confidence that is
evident throughout the day. The other timeframe buyer or seller remains
in control of the auction process virtually from the day's open to its
close. In addition, as a Trend auctions higher or lower, it continues to
draw new business into the market, thus creating unidirectional, sustained price movement fueled by higher volume.
Structural Characteristics On a Trend day, the open forms the upper
or lower extreme in the large majority of cases (Point 1 in Figure 2-6),
because the other timeframe is usually in control from the opening bell.
In the Trend day example in Figure 2-6, the other timeframe seller ex-
Novice
23
24
Chapter 2
Novice
25
tends the range downward during multiple time periods, remaining in
control for the entire day (Points 2 and 3). Such unidirectional activity is
referred to as a "one-timeframe'' market. During a one-timeframe buying
Trend day, each time period will auction to a higher (or equal) price
level without auctioning below the previous time period's lows. Conversely, in a one-timeframe selling Trend day, each additional time period
will equal or extend below previous periods without auctioning above
the previous period's highs. For example, in Figure 2-6, E period extended below D on the downside, thus extending the range to begin the
trend day. Then G auctioned lower than E (without auctioning above the
E period high), H lower than G, J lower than L, and so on. Onetimeframe conditions are a good indication of other timeframe control
and a potential Trend day.
A Trend day differs from a Normal Variation day in that the Trend
day's Profile is generally thinner and more elongated, usually no more
than four or five TPOs wide at any point. Failure to recognize and accept that one is in a Trend day is one of the most costly mistakes a trader
can make. Several days of trading profits can be lost in one trading session if you are positioned against the trend. It is important to identify
early that either the other timeframe buyer or seller is in clear control
and position yourself with them.
Double-Distribution Trend Day
Dynamics The second type of Trend day, the Double-Distribution
Trend day, is relatively inactive during the first few hours of the trading
session. Market participants possess a low level of conviction, resulting
in a narrow base. Later in the session, a change in events causes the other
timeframe to perceive price to be unfair at current price levels, enter the
market aggressively, and substantially extend the range. This later entry
by the other timeframe drives price to a new level, where a second
balance region develops. The Double-Distribution Trend day does not
possess the steady confidence of a typical Trend day and must stop and
"reassure" itself after a substantial move.
Structural Characteristics A very small initial balance is the first indication of a potential Double-Distribution Trend day. Again, the more
narrow the base, the easier it is to overwhelm this area and auction
quickly to a new level (Point 1 in Figure 2-7). In Figure 2-7, the other
timeframe seller extends the range down in F and G periods (Point 2).
Lower prices are accepted as value forms below the original value area
in a new distribution, separated by single TPO price prints (Point 3). This
26
Chapter 2
Novice
27
new trading range generally holds throughout the day, often providing
useful reference points and good trading opportunities for day traders.
The single prints separating the two distributions in a Double-Distribution Trend day become an important reference point near the end of
the day. If price auctions back into the single prints during the latter time
periods, in effect making them double prints, something has changed,
and the second distribution is no longer accepted as value. For example,
in the Double-Distribution Trend in Figure 2-7, a price probe into the F
period single prints (Point 4) would indicate that a strong other
timeframe buyer had entered, or that the other timeframe seller conviction that caused the initial range extension is no longer present.
Nontrend Day
Dynamics A Nontrend day is characterized by a complete lack of
directional conviction. Nontrend days often occur before the release of a
big economic number, news event or a holiday. Market participants
balance their positions in expectation of the market's reaction to the external stimuli—there is simply no activity. Trade is not being facilitated
in any direction, for there is little market participation and no confidence.
Structural Characteristics A Nontrend day starts out looking as if it
might be a trend day, for the initial range is narrow. However, the other
timeframe never surfaces and there is no range extension. The market is
waiting for new information before making its next directional move. A
typical Nontrend day in Treasury bonds is shown in Figure 2-8.
Neutral Day
Dynamics When a Neutral day occurs, it means that the other
timeframe buyer and seller are not far apart in their view of value. When
they have similar views of value, the market balances, auctioning back
and forth between them. During a Neutral day, both other timeframe
participants are present (if only one were active, there would be an imbalance and a Trend or Normal Variation type of day would occur).
It is important to keep in mind that while the other timeframe buyer
and seller may be close in their perception of value, they rarely agree on
the same price, just as the automobile producer rarely agrees with the
long-term car buyers. Therefore, the other timeframe buyer and seller do
not trade with each other, they trade with the local-the middleman.
28
Chapter 2
Novice
29
Structural Characteristics On a Neutral day, the base width is somewhere between a trend and normal day. It is not so small as to be easily
upset and not wide enough to hold the day's extremes (Point 1 in Figure
2-9). The salient feature on a Neutral day is the fact that both the other
timeframe buyer and the other timeframe seller are active, as is
evidenced by range extension on both sides of the initial balance (Points
2 and 3). This indicates a market in balance (Point 4), for all timeframes
are involved.
There are two types of Neutral days: Neutral-center and Neutral-extreme. On a Neutral-center day, the day closes with price in the middle
of the range, indicating a lack of confidence and a balance between the
other timeframe buyer and seller. On a Neutral-extreme day, price closes
on either the high or low extreme for the day, indicating a hypothetical
"victory" in the day timeframe battle for control between the other
timeframe buyer and seller. If the day closes on the upper extreme on a
Neutral day, then the other timeframe buyer has higher directional conviction. Conversely, if the close is on the lows, the other timeframe seller
has exhibited greater confidence.
Day Type Summary
The chart in Figure 2-10 displays the type of day on the horizontal axis
and the level of directional conviction that the day exhibits on the vertical axis. The result is a gradually ascending line from lowest conviction
to highest; from a Nontrend day to a Trend day. Again, the labels we
have given the day types are not carved in stone, but are used only for
learning purposes. What should become clear is that by monitoring a
day's conviction very early in the trading session, traders can quickly
begin to understand and visualize how the day will develop,
At this point you know the basic "objective facts and features"
about the Market Profile. Like David the novice piano player, you have
learned the foundation for further learning, but there is a long way to go.
In the following sections, the concepts you have learned as a novice will
serve as the foundation for understanding the market, like the staff and
notes are the foundation for understanding music.
Remember to actively interpret and combine your new knowledge
with your experience in the market. Do not put the facts you have
learned as a novice away and say, "OK, what's next." The learning
process is an ongoing synthesis, each part fitting into the next like a puzzle. Trying to become an expert trader without a continuum between the
stages is like trying to put together a puzzle with all the pieces the same
color. Look for the big picture.
30
Chapter 2
W
hen David reached the advanced beginner stage, he could play a
few simple songs all the way through. Then his instructor gave
him a new song to learn that was in a different key signature, explaining
that certain notes are raised and must be played on the black keys. When
David tried to play it, he became frustrated and exclaimed, "This song
doesn't work."
He was playing every note as it was written, the way he had
learned as a novice. The instructor calmly explained that in any key signature besides C major, certain notes must be played differently.
David fell victim to tunnel vision, for he was thinking only of the
limited rules he had memorized and was not incorporating the new information in his playing. He then blamed the written music to explain
his failure and frustration. The musical score is not right or wrong, it is
only a passive medium that communicates a certain piece of music.
Tunnel vision is an easy trap to fall into, especially when learning
large amounts of new information. It is not uncommon to hear beginning
Market Profile traders comment, "The Profile doesn't work." There is
nothing about the Profile that does or does not work. It is only a passive
gauge of market-generated information—a way to organize the data,
33
34
Chapter 3
much like the musical score. What fails to work is the trader's ability to
see the "big picture" objectively and realize that everything is a series of
facts surrounded by other circumstances. Only when all the circumstances are interpreted together and a holistic image develops will successful
trading occur.
Building the Framework
In Advanced Beginner, we will begin to build upon the foundation established in the Novice. You will learn many of the broad concepts that
will serve as tools for building a framework for understanding the
marketplace through the Market Profile.
The Big Picture: Market Structure, Trading Logic, and Time
The "big picture" is made up of three broad categories of information:
market structure, trading logic, and time. As a novice you learned the
basics of market structure, the most tangible information offered by the
Market Profile in the unique bell curve graphic. Very short-term structure is reflected through TPOs and the marker's half-hour auctions. As
the day progresses, the market begins to form one of the day types
through range extension, tails, etc. We can see, measure, and name the
physical aspects of the Profile. By the day's end, structure shows not
only what happened, but also when it happened and who was involved.
In short, market structure provides visible evidence of the actions and
behavior of the market's participants. In this section, this structural
evidence will be built upon and combined with time and trading logic.
Time is the market's regulator. In its broadest sense, time sets
limitations on the day's trading by imposing a certain framework, i.e.,
the number of hours from the open to the close. Most traders see time
only in its function of the "closing bell," and do not consider its influence
on price and opportunity. Without considering time, there is no way to
judge value, and trading becomes a 50-50 gamble on price movement.
In the day timeframe, time validates price. The areas of the Market
Profile's bell curve showing the greatest depth indicate the prices where
trading spent the most time, thus establishing value for that day (price x
time = value).2 Understanding value and value area will become more
and more important as we progress through the learning process.
J. Peter Steidlmayer and Kevin Koy, Markets and Market Logic (Chicago: The
Porcupine Press, 1986), p. 66.
Advanced Beginner
35
Time also regulates opportunity. Consider an every day life example. You are in the market to buy a pair of snow skis. You shop
around long enough to get a good feel as to how much skis normally
cost or what you consider value. You don't need the skis right away, so
you wait for a chance to buy them under value—you are a long term
buyer.
You know that after the ski season ends, most stores will have
"summer ski clearance sales," when price will temporarily drop below
value. You also know that these prices will not last long, for time regulates opportunity. The stores could not afford to sell at such low prices
all year and still make a profit. They are merely clearing excess inventory
in preparation for new stock. To take advantage of the low price, you
must act quickly.
The same principle is true in the futures market. Good opportunities
to buy below value or sell above value will not last long, for price will
move quickly with increased competition. If price stays below value for a
long time, for example, it is no longer a good opportunity. Something
has changed, and value is being accepted lower.
The third and most difficult category is trading logic. Trading logic
is largely a product of experience, but it is more than Just careful observation and practice; it is an understanding of why the market behaves the
way it does. This understanding is best gained over time and through a
conscious effort to understand the forces behind market movement. Certain aspects of trading logic can be taught in relation to structure and
time, by derivative learning. For example, you know that a tail is an indicator of strong other timeframe activity on the extremes. If the tail is
"taken out" by a price rotation back into the tail and TPOs build over
time, trading logic says that something has changed, and the other
timeframe buyer or seller that moved price quickly is no longer present
or is less willing to respond to the same price levels.
The only way to really understand the market and its logic is to
observe, interpret, and trade. Remember, much learning does not teach
understanding. We will be integrating trading logic throughout the
remainder of the book.
A Synthesis: Structure, Time, and Logic
Imagine two children, each racing to complete a giant jig-saw puzzle.
Both are working on the same puzzle with an equal number of pieces
(the same structure), but one child has a picture of the finished puzzle
and one does not. Obviously, the child with a knowledge of the whole
picture will finish first.
36
Chapter 3
The Profile graphic is much like an intricate puzzle. Its structure
reveals more and more as the day nears completion. But, like the child
with a picture of the finished puzzle, traders with an understanding of
the "big picture''—those that can see the market develop before it is
revealed by structure—are generally the first to put together the pieces of
the market. Market time and trading logic are the two big picture components of a whole market understanding. Only through a synthesis of
all three components will a trader successfully put together the puzzle.
We will now discuss market structure, time, and trading logic according
to five general criteria:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Ease of Learning
Amount of Information
Recognition Speed
Trade Location
Confidence Level
Ease of Learning Ironically, the order in which structure, time, and
logic are usually learned is opposite from their order of occurrence in the
marketplace—not because they are taught incorrectly, rather, because
market structure is learned more quickly and easily than the roles of time
and logic. Market structure is the finished product, and it is always
easier to see the finished product than to identify the stages of its assembly. Mastering market structure is largely a matter of successfully
recognizing and interpreting the Profile graphic. Understanding the role
of time, however, requires a much deeper understanding of the market's
auction process. Trading logic is the hardest to learn, particularly from a
book or instructor, for logic is the ultimate outcome of trading practice
and experience. Trading logic is the raw human instinct of the marketplace.
True trading logic comes only through intensive participation and careful examination of real market situations.
Amount of Information While market structure is clearly the most tangible information offered by the Profile, it also contains the greatest
amount and variety of information. Why, then, is it so difficult to interpret market structure in real trading situations? It is relatively simple to
recognize and interpret the day's final structure. The difficulty lies in
recognizing what is transpiring as the structures are building.
The inability to identify a developing structure does not necessarily
mean that the information is lacking. It is simply not conveyed in an
easily readable format. In addition, it is possible to monitor the wrong in-
Advanced Beginner
37
formation. Market time and trading logic provide very little in terms of
visible, tangible information—but the information is in the market. Successful trading requires the ability to find and interpret the more subtle
clues found in time and logic, and integrate them with the developing
structure.
Recognition Speed It takes time to build structure. Thus, while the
Profile structure reveals a lot, the sheer fact that time must transpire suggests that fundamental changes occur in the market before they are
revealed by structure. Structure acts as the market's translator, and translated information is second-hand information. The market has already
spoken in the form of time and logic. Traders who rely exclusively on structure without integrating time and logic will be late in entering and exiting the market, just as catcher who holds his throw until he sees how
fast a man stealing second base can run will never make the out.
Trade Location Later recognition leads to later entry and exit, which in
turn leads to less desirable trade location. For example, range extension
(structure) confirms that other timeframe buyers have entered the
market. But when did they enter the market? If we rely solely on structure, we do not realize the other timeframe buyer's point of entry until
the point of range extension, that is, when price is on the day's high.
Buying the high results in poor day timeframe trade location, at least
temporarily. In many cases, it is possible to know that buyers are assuming control before the actual structural confirmation (range extension)
through an understanding of market time and trading logic.
Confidence Level Trading based on structure provides the greatest
level of comfort and confidence, for there is obvious proof on which to
base a decision. The more information we have in our favor, the more
comfortable we are with a trade. Unfortunately, visible information and
opportunity are inversely related. The more structural information
present, the less an opportunity still exists. Thus, if a trader waits for too
much information, chances are good that the real opportunity has been
missed. If all the evidence is present and visible, then you are far from
the first to have acted on it and probably have poor trade location.
Market time, followed by trading logic, provides the least amount of
visible evidence. To the advanced beginner trader, trades based on time
and logic offer a lower level of confidence, for the trader is not yet comfortable outside the realm of structure. Seasoned traders with a wholemarket understanding, on the other hand, trade using logic and time and
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then monitor activity for the additional information (structure) necessary
to increase their confidence in the trade.
Summary: Logic creates the impetus, time generates the signal, and structure
provides the confirmation.
The preceding discussion delineates the many differences between
structure, time, and logic, but the answer to a practical sense of their
synthesis must be developed through time and experience. Such coordination is gained only t h r o u g h observing and acting on marketgenerated information every day (doing the trade). Although the Market
Profile is best known for the Profile graphic, or structure, experience has
shown that understanding the influence of time and trading logic is more
important to reaching a holistic view of the marketplace. Putting in the
extra effort to fully understand the building blocks of structure—market
time and trading logic-—will better prepare traders to anticipate and take
advantage of trading opportunities as they develop, not after they have
passed.
Evaluating Other Timeframe Control
We have stressed in general terms the importance of determining who, if
anyone, is in control of the market. Let us now enter into evaluating
other timeframe control in a more detailed, conclusive discussion. The
elements that signify other timeframe control are perhaps the most
deceptive of all market-generated information we will cover. Often, information that we believe we are interpreting objectively is presented in
such a way that its actual nature is misinterpreted.
An example of such an "illusion" often occurs when a market opens
exceptionally above the previous day's value area. The other timeframe
seller responds to the higher open, enters the market aggressively and
auctions price lower all day. However, at the conclusion of the trading
session, the day's value is ultimately higher. In the day timeframe, other
timeframe sellers dominated the marker's auctions through their attempts to return price to previously accepted value. But the responsive
selling was not strong enough to completely overpower the higher opening triggered by a strong other timeframe buyer. Day timeframe structure indicated weakness, while the market was actually very strong in
the longer term.
As illusions go, the preceding example is relatively easy to detect*
and evaluate. Unfortunately, the information generated by the market is
not always so clear. In most cases, a more analytical approach is needed
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to effectively gauge who is winning the battle for control between the
other timeframe buyer and seller.
To evaluate other timeframe control we will examine range exten. sion, tails, activity occurring in the "body" of the Profile, and value area
placement in relationship to the previous day. In addition, each of these
factors will be studied further, based on whether the participants are acting on their own initiative or are willing to act only in response to an
advantageous market movement. Another timeframe participant who
acts on his own initiative is usually more determined than one who
merely "responds" to a beneficial opportunity.
This section will deal with evaluating who has control in the day
timeframe. The ability to process information via the Profile structures
enables a trader to recognize attractive day timeframe trades. Longerterm traders must also be able to read and interpret day timeframe structure, for a longer-term auction is simply a series of day auctions moving
through time. Longer-term auction evaluation and value area placement
requires far more analysis and will be detailed in Chapter 4. We mention
it here to avoid creating the illusion that day timeframe control is all-conclusive—it merely reflects activity occurring during one day in the life of
a longer-term auction.
Learning to read and interpret day timeframe structure is beneficial
to all market participants at one time or another. This understanding
most obviously influences the individual who trades only in the day
timeframe, in other words, one who begins and ends each day with no
position. However, all longer-term traders are also day traders on the
day that they initiate or exit a trade. The concept of longer timeframe
participation in the day timeframe is best expressed through two examples.
Imagine a food company that purchases a large amount of corn for
its cereal processing plant. The food processor has an opinion that com
prices will rise but also wants to be appropriately hedged against loss.
Thus, as the price of corn rises, the company gradually sells grain futures
against its inventory, in effect "scaling in" a hedge. On one particular
morning, corn opens far above the previous day's value, but early Profile
structure indicates weakness. The processor takes advantage of the
higher open and expands the size of its hedge (by selling more futures).
However, as price auctions lower over the course of the day, the processor may partially close out its shorts, seeking to replace them later at
higher prices. The food company's hedging goals are clearly longer term.
However, when the market created an opportunity in the day timeframe,
the food company elected to "trade" a portion of the hedge.
In a second example, a futures fund manager with a bullish bias
may elect to "trade around" his long-term positions by taking advantage
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of day timeframe structure. If market structure indicates that the market
is likely to break, he may sell a percentage of his position, reestablishing
it later in the day. In fact, if there is enough volatility in the market, he
may reposition a portion of his inventory more than once on the same
day.
Putting aside the longer term for a later section, we will now begin
the discussion of other timeframe control in the day timeframe.
Other Timeframe Control on the Extremes
Tails (or Extremes) Tails are created when an aggressive buyer or
seller enters the market on an extreme and quickly moves price. Generally, the longer the tail, the greater the conviction behind the move (a tail
must be at least two TPOs long to be significant). A tail at the upper
extreme of a day's profile, for example, indicates a strong other
timeframe seller entered the market and drove price to lower levels. In
terms of other timeframe control, no tail may also be significant. The
absence of aggressive other timeframe activity on an extreme indicates a
lack of buyer or seller conviction.
Range Extension Range extension is another structural feature that
identifies control and helps gauge buyer/seller strength. Multiple period
range extension is generally the result of successively higher or tower
auctions. The stronger the control, the more frequent and elongated the
range extension, resulting in a more elongated Profile (an elongated
Profile is an indication of good trade facilitation). In a Trend day, for
example, the other timeframe's dominance is clearly evident through
continued range extension and price movement throughout the day.
Other Timeframe Control in the Body of the Profile
The role of the larger institutions and commercial participants in the
marketplace is much greater than merely seeking to take advantage of
price as it moves away from value (evidenced by tails and range extension). Many of the longer-term commercial users of the futures exchange
have a certain amount of business they must conduct every day. For example, General Mills must put boxes of cereal on millions of breakfast
tables every morning. Therefore, they are constantly in the market as
part of their daily business.
This more subtle, involuntary other timeframe activity generally
takes place within the body of the Profile. Nonetheless, it plays an im-
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portant part in our evaluation of the competition that goes on between
the other timeframe participants. The TPO count provides a means of
* measuring the activity of the other timeframe within the body of the
day's Profile.
TPO Count The Time Price Opportunity is the smallest unit of market
measurement. As mentioned earlier, TPO stands for Time, the market's
regulator, and Price, the marker's advertiser, together creating the Opportunity to buy or sell at a given price at a particular time. Monitoring
the TPO count helps evaluate other timeframe control within the
developing value area. Specifically, the TPO count measures the level of
imbalance (when such an imbalance exists) between the other timeframe
participant and the day timeframe (mostly local) trader.
The key to understanding how an imbalance can occur is to recognize that the other timeframe buyer does not deal directly with the other
timeframe seller. Recall that the local, or scalper, acts as a middleman
between these two longer-term participants. Thus, the other timeframe
buyer generally buys from a local, and the other timeframe seller typically sells to a local. Imbalance occurs when there are more other timeframe
buyers than sellers or more other timeframe sellers than buyers, leaving
the local with an imbalance. Before we can learn how to measure this
imbalance, we must first gain a better understanding of how the locals
conduct their business.
The locals position themselves between the flow of outside buy orders and outside sell orders (orders placed predominantly by off-floor,
other timeframe participants). For example, suppose that a floor broker
receives an order to sell 100 contracts at, say, $5.00 per contract. The locals would buy the contracts from the broker and then turn around and
sell them to another floor broker who has an order to buy 100 contracts at
$5.02. In this situation, the locals perform their role of facilitating trade
and, in return, receive a small margin of profit.
The trade facilitation process is seldom so ideal, however. Often
there are more other timeframe buyers than sellers—causing the local's
inventory to become overloaded. For example, if an usually large number of sell orders enter the pit, the local's inventory begins to accumulate
to a point where he gets "too long." In other words, the local has purchased too much from the other timeframe seller. If the other timeframe
buyer does not appear relatively quickly, the local must bring his inventory back into balance in some other way. One's first thought would be
that the local simply needs to sell off his excess inventory. However, this
is not so easy, for reversing and selling would only serve to accentuate
the selling that is already flowing into the market. Therefore, his first
priority is to stop the flow of outside sell orders by dropping his bid in
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hopes that the market will stabilize and he can balance his inventory. If
lower prices do not cut off selling, the local may then be forced to
"Jump on the bandwagon" and sell (liquidate) his longs at a lower price.
Viewed from another perspective, suppose you decided to try to
make extra spending money by scalping football tickets. A month before
the chosen game you purchased twenty tickets from the box office at $10
each. In this case, the box office is the other timeframe seller and you are
the day timeframe buyer. Over the ensuing month, your team loses every
game and slips from first to fifth place. Not surprisingly, the attendence
is dismal on the day of the game at which you intend to sell your tickets.
Few other timeframe buyers (fans) show up. In order to get rid of your
inventory and recover at least part of your costs, you are forced to sell
your tickets at $8 instead of $12 or $15. In this example, there were more
other timeframe seller than buyers. Consequently, price had to move
lower to restore balance.
The same concepts apply to the futures marketplace. If we can identify imbalance before it corrects itself, then perhaps we can capitalize on
it, too. Tails and range extension are more obvious forms of other
timeframe presence, but on a volatile or choppy day, much of the imbalance occurs in more subtle ways within the value area. The TPO
count is an excellent method for evaluating day-to-day imbalance that
occurs within the developing value area.
The "TPO count" is found by isolating the point of control (the
longest line closest to the center of the range), summing all the TPOs
above it and comparing that number to the total number of TPOs below
it. Single print tails are excluded from the count, because their implications are clear and have already been considered when examining activity on the extremes. Remember, the point of control is significant,
because it indicates the price where the most activity occurred during the
day and is, therefore, the fairest price in the day timeframe (price x time
= value). Figure 3-1 illustrates the TPO count.
The total TPO figure above the point of control represents other
timeframe traders willing to sell and stay short above value, while total
TPOs below the point of control represent other timeframe traders willing to buy and stay long below value. The resulting ratio is an estimate
for buyer/seller imbalance in the value area. For example, a ratio of
32/24 breaks down to 32 selling TPOs above the point of control, and 24
buying TPOs below. Note that a value area is not specifically calculated.
Rather, the methodology of the TPO count, i.e., single-print rejections are
not counted, implies value.
Portrayed in Figure 3-2 are three developing versions of the
treasury bond Profile of January 29,1988. Profile A displays time periods
A-F of the day. The 29th saw an opening substantially higher than the
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close of the previous day, followed by an early morning sell-off as price
attempted to auction down.
As the trading day proceeds, however, our concern is with discovering exactly who is more aggressive (who is in control) within the
developing value area. Occasionally, activity reflected by range extension
and tails will give us some clues regarding which participant is more
aggressive on the extremes. But the value area battles are more subtle
and often much slower to develop. Monitoring the TPO count through
time helps us measure how the wins and losses are stacking up and
gives some indication of who will be the victor in the battle for control in
the body of the Profile.
Examine Profile A again. A-F period registers a 13/21 TPO count,
which favors the other timeframe buyers. Consider what this 13/21 TPO
count logically means: the fact that the TPO count below the point of
control is growing larger indicates that, although price is spending time
below the point of control, price is not going anywhere.
Had other timeframe sellers been aggressive within the value area,
there would have been downside range extension. Range extension
would have lowered the point of control (and the perception of value),
therefore balancing the TPO count and quite probably shifting it in favor
of the sellers. With a TPO count building in the bottom half of the value
area (buyers) and no selling range extension, chances are that it is the
floor traders, or locals, who are selling to the other timeframe buyers.
Profile B in Figure 3-2 shows the TPO count through H period
moving back into balance at 21/22. This temporary return to balance indicates that the locals' inventories became too short—in essence, they had
sold too much—and were forced to cover (buy back) some of their shorts
to bring their inventories back into line. Consequently, price rotated up
in G and H periods, as the locals restored balance to their inventories.
Again, in the final Profile, other timeframe sellers were not present
as price continued to rotate toward the day's upper extreme. The L
period TPO print at 93 21/32 (Bonds trade in 32nds of $1000), and subsequent L period range extension pulled the point of control higher, confirming a final TPO tally in favor of buyers, 30/47. This end-of-the-day
imbalance often provides momentum into the following day.
Initiative versus Responsive Activity
Knowing whether the other timeframe participants are acting on their
own initiative, as opposed to responding to opportune prices is also important to understanding their influence. Traders can determine if activity is initiative or responsive by comparing the relationship of the
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day's structure to the previous day's value area. The previous day's
value area acts as the truest, most recent indication of a level where price
has been accepted over time. Four types of potential activity may
emerge;
1.
2.
3.
4.
Initiative Buying
Initiative Selling
Responsive Buying
Responsive Selling
Briefly, initiative buying is any buying activity occurring within or
above the previous day's value area. Conversely, initiative selling is any
selling activity that takes place within or below the previous day's value
area. Initiative activity indicates strong conviction on the part of the
other timeframe.
Responsive activity is the obverse of initiative activity. Buyers
respond to price below value, and sellers respond to price above value.
Figures 3-3 and 3-4 illustrate these concepts in detail. Looking first at the
lower right-hand side of Figure 3-3, the upward range extension in C
period and the E period buying tail represent responsive buying. Buyers
are responding to price considerably below the area of recent price acceptance. In other words, buyers have responded to the opportunity to
buy cheap. Keep in mind that if price auctions down and finds buyers, that
alone is not responsive. It is the fact that price is below value that makes the
buying responsive.
A responsive buying tail is also initiative selling range extension.
For example, when the grocer lowered prices in his "peanut butter extravaganza/' it created initiative selling range extension. Buyers
responded to this price below value, returning price to previous levels in
a responsive buying tail. The initiative range extension and the responsive tail
were one and the same activity.
Referring again to Figure 3-3, notice that the flip-side of the C
period responsive buying range extension is a C period initiative selling
tail. Similarly, the E period responsive buying tail was actually the outcome of a harsh rejection of E period initiative selling range extension. In
Figure 3-4 we find the same thing: C period initiative buying range extension meets a responsive seller and eventually becomes a responsive
selling tail. If range extension occurs in the last period of the day, however, it does not indicate a tail as well. A tail is only valid when confirmed by a rejection of price in at least one additional time period.
Range extension and tails occurring within the previous day's value
area are also considered initiative. If people choose to buy or sell within the
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area of most recently perceived value, their free choice to "agree" with
recent price levels is really an initiative decision in itself, for they are not
responding to excess price. Like all the information you are learning, the
concept of initiative and responsive action is not just a random designation that should be committed to memory, but rather a logical characterization of price's relationship to value.
The entire day's value area can be classified as either initiative or
responsive as well. As noted before, this identification is important because it gives the trader an indication of market conviction and confidence. In short, initiative buying and responsive selling TPOs occur
above the previous day's value area, while responsive buying and initiative selling TPOs occur below the previous day's value area. Any TPO
activity occurring within the previous day's value area is considered initiative, although it does not carry as much confidence as initiative activity that takes place outside of the value area. Figures 3-5 and 3-6
illustrate these concepts.
Trending versus Bracketed Markets
Understanding the dynamics of trending and bracketed markets, and the
transition from one to the other, is one of the most difficult auction
market concepts to grasp. In a very real sense, this could be due to the
fact that such an understanding requires a firm grasp of overall market
behavior, as well as the synthesis of a large part of all Profile knowledge.
For this reason, we lay the groundwork of trending and bracketed
markets here, with a more detailed discussion to follow in the Competent section.
Let us begin with a few common dictionary definitions of a trend
and a bracket in order to form a basic mental image of the two. Webster's
New Collegiate Dictionary defines a trend: (a) "to extend in a general direction: follow a general course . . . to show a tendency," or (b) "the general
movement in the course of time of a statistically detectable change; also:
a statistical curve reflecting such a change." Unfortunately, there is no
absolute way to define a trend, for it is a function of the market and your
trading timeframe. A trend, put simply, is a divergence of price away
from value. For our purposes, the price divergence in a trend is characterized by a series of day auctions (value areas) moving in a clear direction over a long period of time. An example of such a long-term trend is
illustrated between Points 1 and 2 in the daily bar chart for Crude Oil in
Figure 3-7. Figure 3-8 displays another trend occurring in the S&P 500
(between Points 1 and 2) that ends in a "bracket."
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Chapter 3
Webster's defines bracket: (a) "to place within or as if within brackets/' or (b) "to establish a margin on either side of." A bracketed market
is a series of price movements contained "as if within brackets." The
market auctions back and forth between two price levels that serve as a
margin on either end of the range. Referring to Figure 3-8 again, the S&P
market began the bracketing process at Point 2, then auctioned back and
forth within the bracket enclosed by Points 2 through 6.
Key Elements—A Brief Discussion
We have defined a trend as a divergence of price away from value.
While the divergence may last for an extended period of time, it will not
continue indefinitely—eventually price and value will reach an equilibrium.
A trending market ends when price begins to auction back and
forth between two known reference points, forming a bracket or trading
range. A new trend begins when price leaves the bracketed area and is
accepted over time.
Many knowledgeable professionals estimate that markets trend only
20 to 30 percent of the time. Failure to recognize this fact is one of the
main reasons why a large number of traders don't make money. Many of
the popular technical systems are trend following systems that require
sustained price movement to be successful. As many traders are painfully aware, bracketed markets often move just fast and far enough to trigger these trend following systems, then the potential move stalls and the
market heads the other way.
It is evident by now that the trader colloquialism "the trend is your
friend" is a misleading expression. It is true that during a trending
market a trader can make a substantial profit if positioned with the
trend. However, if a trader constantly employs a trend following system,
his chances of success during a bracketing market are greatly reduced.
Therefore, as the market evolves from trend to bracket and back to trend
again, your trading strategy should change dramatically. Trends require
a less active type of strategy; they need to be left alone. Because of their
strong convictional nature, profit expectations are relatively high. In a
trending market, you put the trade on and then let the market do the rest
of the work. Brackets, however, require a closer, more hands-on approach. The market moves in erratic spurts with no real longer term
directional conviction. The prices that form the bracket's extremes provide significant reference points by which to monitor future change, i.e.,
the start of a new trend, continuation of the bracketing process, and so
forth. To successfully trade a bracketed market, you need to learn how to
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identify the outer reaches of the bracket and then take gains quickly instead of "letting them ride." Monitoring how the market behaves around
these points of reference helps you gauge your profit expectations and
* adjust your trading strategy.
Knowing if a market is in a trend or a bracket is an integral part of a
holistic market understanding. It is vital to formulating, developing, and
implementing your own trading timeframe and strategy.
Trending Markets The key to capitalizing on a trend lies in the trader's
ability to determine if the trend is continuing, that is, if the divergence of
price is being accepted or rejected by the market. A good indication of
trend continuation lies in observing value area placement. If a series of
value areas is moving in a clear direction through time, then the new
price levels are being accepted and the trend is finding acceptance. If
value areas begin to overlap or move in the opposite direction of the
trend, then chances are good that the trend is slowing and beginning to
balance.
A trend is started by initiative action from the other timeframe participant, who perceives price to be away from value in the longer term.
In an up trend, for example, price is perceived as below value by the
other timeframe buyer and unfair to the other timeframe seller. As price
auctions higher, the trend "draws in" market participants from many different timeframes until virtually everyone is a buyer. At that point, the
whole world believes the trend will go on forever, but there is no one left
to buy. The upward bend ends, for there are simply no more buyers,
and the responsive seller enters and auctions price downward, beginning
the bracketing process. The other timeframe buyer and seller's view of
value has narrowed, producing a relatively wide area of buyer/seller
equilibrium contained within the bracket "margins."
Bracketed Markets As mentioned previously, a trend typically ends in
a balanced area, otherwise known as a trading range or bracket. Markets
do not trend up, then turn on a dime and begin a trend down. An upward-trending market auctions higher, balances, then either continues up
or begins to auction downward. Similarly, a down trend ends in a bracketed market, then either continues down or begins a trend to the up side.
In a bracket, both the other timeframe buyer and seller become
responsive parties. As price nears the top of the perceived bracket, the
seller responds and auctions price downward through the bracket or
equilibrium range. In turn, the responsive buyer enters and rotates price
back to the upside. This bracketing process indicates that the market is in
balance and waiting for more information. Therefore, when price is accepted above or below a known bracket extreme, the market could be
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cepted above or below a known bracket extreme, the market could be
coming out of balance. Monitoring such a break-out for continuation and
acceptance can alert the observant trader to the beginning of a new
trend.
To better illustrate the concept of balance and the dynamics of price
rotation within a bracket, consider an everyday example—the car buyer.
Imagine five different people who go to Rawley's car dealership to purchase a car during the same week. They all have the same ultimate goal
in mind: the purchase of the new Series Magma 8.9 automobile. However, the similarities end there, for chances are good that each is focusing
on different aspects of the same car. One of the five wrecked his car on
the day before and needs transportation immediately for business purposes. A wealthy college student likes the style of the Magma and wants
all the extras—sun roof, stereo, power windows, and racing stripes. A
suburban middle-income family has been pricing cars for several weeks
and has been to the Rawley dealership several times negotiating price. A
woman who commutes to a nearby city is interested in the Magma because of its excellent gas mileage. The last of the five is a salesman who
simply decides it is time he purchased a new car. All five view the same
market from vastly different perspectives, and each has a certain price
range in mind that he or she believes is value. The car dealer, too, has a
perception of value that acts as a bracket in the negotiating process. His
idea of value ranges from the lowest markup that will still clear a profit
to the highest price he can get a buyer to pay. When dealing with each
customer, price moves back and forth within his bracket until an agreement is reached. The college student would probably pay the most, for
he is not worried about price and wants all the added luxuries. The family would probably get the best deal, for they are longer term buyers who
have researched and bargained over a period of time. The point is that
all five market participants will purchase the same car, but they will each
pay a different price. The car dealer fulfills the status of middleman,
facilitating trade at different price levels in his bracket by making the
necessary deals to move the cars off his lot.
A bracketed market acts in a similar fashion. When the market is in
a balancing mode, participants consider different factors in their perception of value. Price auctions back and forth as they respond to the changing factors that give rise to differing opinions. Technicians, for example,
may monitor stochastic indicators, while fundamentalists look at
economic figures and news. Still other traders may evaluate open interest, previous highs and lows, yield curves, and activity in other commodities. Because of this segmentation, one group of market participants
may "rule" for a short period of time, accentuating the bracketing
process.
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A bracket provides less obvious information than a trend, where
price movement and market sentiment are relatively easy to understand.
In a strong trend, the direction of the trend is clear and all market
opinion is generally geared with the trend. Except for entry and exit, a
trader does not need the Market Profile, or any other system for that
matter, to determine which way the market is trying to go. In a bracket,
however, there is no clear indication regarding longer-term market sentiment. Because of the varied and often conflicting mixture of opinions
that surface in a bracketed market, a trader must look harder to find
directional dues. The diversity of these dues brings about the danger of
overweighting any one piece of information and thus getting an incomplete (and often incorrect) view of the market. When market-generated
information is organized using the Market Profile, otherwise segmented
market opinions are brought together in one composite information
source. In a sense, the Market Profile is a filter for all market opinions.
By observing and understanding the Market Profile, it is possible to differentiate short-term bracketing activity from a potentially strong, sustained price movement. In other words, the Market Profile conduit is a
powerful tool in evaluating bracket activity and control.
This concludes the basic concepts of trending and bracketed
markets. A more detailed discussion that builds on these concepts will
follow in Chapter 4.
The Two Big Questions
We have covered a large amount of material: Profile structure, day types,
other timeframe control, initiative and responsive activity, trending and
bracketed markets—and all of the subtleties that accompany each of
them. It is as if we have been rubbing away at a large fogged-over window, each concept revealing a slightly larger view of the whole picture.
Learning how markets operate and how to interpret them through the
Market Profile is an evolving process that involves learning an enormous
number of facts and concepts that are all interrelated. Bringing it all
together is a challenge that combines knowledge, dedication, and experience as more of the window is exposed. Let us attempt to look at
what we have uncovered so far in a way that will help unify what you
have learned in the Novice and Advanced Beginner chapters.
Successful implementation of the Profile depends on being able to
answer just two basic, sweeping questions that stem from the market's
ultimate purpose in facilitating trade:
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Chapter 3
Which way is the market trying to go?
and
Is it doing a good job in its attempt to go that way?
Understanding these two questions together is in essence the equation for determining trade facilitation. As we continue through the more
advanced portions of the learning process, these two questions will become the cornerstones for understanding the market through the Market
Profile.
L
et us think back for a moment to David, the aspiring pianist. David
reached the third level of learning and became a competent pianist
after many months of study and practicing the basics. He began to see
each song as a whole, a certain expression to be performed with a
definite goal in mind. He still played by reading the notes but achieved
continuity in his playing.
In this chapter, we will complete the study of the basic concepts and
theories behind evaluating market-generated information through the
Market Profile. We will give a thorough discussion of practical applications to day and longer timeframe trading. By the close of Competent,
more of the "big picture" will be revealed as the basics merge together to
make you a competent trader.
Doing the Trade
"All reasonings concerning the matter of fact seem to be founded on the relation of Cause and Effect., .I shall venture to affirm that the knowledge of this
relation is not in any instance attained by learning a priori, but arises entirely
from Experience."
—David Hume
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Knowledge arises from experience. Just as a musician practices diligently
to become a concert pianist and an athlete spends uncounted hours on
the court to become a great tennis player, a trader must gain experience
through actual trading to become an expert trader.
Any effective performance is a combination of knowledge, skill, and
instinct With each trade, you put your knowledge, your understanding,
and your experience on the line to be judged by the market. Clearly, it is
necessary to Mo the trade" to learn. Experience provides the confidence
to overcome such barriers as fear, hesitancy, and inflexibility.
We introduce the psychological side of trading here for good
reason. By the end of the Advanced Beginner stage you should be incorporating what you have learned and will continue to learn into your
trading technique. We will continue the discussion of the "You" portion
of trading once all the mechanical aspects of the Market Profile have
been covered. Remember: trading is the link to experience and
knowledge.
Section 1: Day Timeframe Trading
Mike Singletary of the Chicago Bears was the National Football League's
defensive player of the year during the 1988-89 football season. Considered by many to be the finest linebacker to play the game, Singletary's
all-pro ability transcends his physical strength and agility.
As captain of his defensive team, he attempts to, in effect, "read"
the offense. As simple as this may sound, it is a complex process that
involves both long- and short-term analysis. Singletary spends hours
preparing for each game, studying play charts, game films, and player
statistics. When the game starts, he knows exactly which plays the opponent has used in every possible situation, what formations these plays
have involved, and who the key players are in each play. In other words,
Singletary has done his long-term homework and, based on the
opponent's past performances, enters each game with specific defensive
plans in mind.
After the opening kickoff, however, Mike Singletary does not actively think about the charts and playbooks—he doesn't have time. It is here
that Singletary's expertise shines. The game films and technical information are, in a sense, a holistic image in his mind. He acts intuitively,
recognizes patterns, and quickly directs the defense. His expectations
coming into the game serve as guidelines, but he actively assimilates his
play to the evolving offense.
The opposing team's offensive coach changes his strategy and com-
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position of plays with every game in an attempt to throw players such as
Singletary off guard. The ability to recognize such changes in time to
stop the play is what makes an expert linebacker.
An experienced day timeframe trader and Mike Singletary follow
the same sort of evaluation process. He or she begins each day with a set
of expectations that serve as guidelines, based on the market's past performance. The trader studies factors such as longer-term market direction, recent value area placement and the opening call (all topics to be
discussed in this section). Once the market opens, the trader switches to
a more intuitive mindset, molding expectations to the developing structure, such as the opening type, the open's relationship to the previous
day's value, and the auction rotations. Like Mike Singletary, the experienced trader knows that the market will seldom develop patterns
identical to those that have happened in the past The ability to recognize
these subtle changes as they occur in the marketplace is what makes an
expert trader.
In this section, we will study important structural reference points
in the order that they occur in the unfolding market, beginning with the
open and ending with the close.
Day Timeframe Directional Conviction
Recall for a moment the two big questions introduced at the end of
Chapter 3, The first was, '"Which way is the market trying to go?" The
second was, "Is it doing a good job in its attempt to go that way?" Both
of these questions relate directly to the concept of market confidence and
directional conviction. The sole purpose behind interpreting other timeframe
activity is to find out which way the market is trying to go.
If you know which other timeframe participant is in control in the
day timeframe (or that neither is in control) and with what level of confidence they have entered the market, then you can successfully answer
the two big questions and position your trade accordingly. We will now
discuss how to evaluate market confidence and directional conviction,
emphasizing their effect on estimating the day's range. We will start with
the first available measure of market sentiment, the opening call.
Opening Call During one of our advanced trading seminars, a successful floor trader asked an intriguing question: "If the opening exceeds or
fails to make its opening call, can that also be considered recordable initiative or responsive activity, even though the market never actually
traded there?" The answer, as you will see, is clearly "yes."
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Day timeframe trading strategy begins with the succession of early
morning calls that indicate where the market will open. Opening calls
can occur at any time—from two hours before, to just a few minutes
prior to the actual opening. Observing the succession of calls as the
market nears its open and the call closest to the opening bell is one of the
first important pieces of information available to the day timeframe
trader.
In the last few minutes before the day's actual open, the largest and
most active accounts have direct access to the trading floor through onfloor telephone clerks. The telephone lines to these large accounts are
often left open during this period, providing continuous and almost instant communication with the trading pit. As early indications of price
ranges are relayed to off-floor accounts around the world, they often attract the attention of the longer timeframe traders, leading them to place
orders. As these orders are signaled into the pit, they are seen and communicated to other off-floor accounts, which in turn may stimulate additional orders. In a sense, the auction is actually underway before the
market opens. This pre-opening auction process, although invisible to
most, is often as important to evaluating market direction as the day's
actual trade, for it is composed almost exclusively of other timeframe
participants.
If the early call is perceived as too high or too low, opening call
price levels and the eventual opening price can change quickly. What the
astute floor trader at the seminar recognized is that the information
available before the opening is often as valuable as looking at a tail on
the Market Profile graphic. For example, if the first call is an expected
opening around 87-19, but the actual opening takes place at 87-12, there
is, in a sense, a seven-tick "hidden selling tail." That tail will be responsive or initiative depending on where it is located in relation to the previous day's value area (just like a visible tail).
The Open Experienced day timeframe traders start each trading day
with a firm knowledge of recent market activity, much like Mike
Singletary studies films and playbooks before each game. They have
done their homework and watched the opening call to develop some
idea of what to expect during the day's trading.
When the market opens, less experienced traders may wait for the
initial balance to develop, thinking that there is little information or little
to do prior to the development of structure. Seasoned traders, however,
know that the first half hour of trade establishes one of the day's extremes in the large majority of cases. As accurate as this fact may be, it is
of little value unless a trader can identify which extreme will hold
throughout the day. The activity occurring during the formation of the
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initial balance (many times, just the first few minutes) often enables a
trader to identify which extreme has the greatest holding potential. This
knowledge alone can play a large part in forming a trader's day
* timeframe strategy.
The Open as a Gauge of Market Conviction After the opening call, the first
few minutes of the open provide an excellent opportunity to observe and
evaluate the market's underlying directional conviction. With an understanding of market conviction, it is possible to estimate very early on
where the market is trying to go, which extreme is most likely to hold (if
any), and even what type of day will evolve. In other words, the
market's open often foreshadows the day's outcome.
Four distinct types of opening activity provide a good indication of
the level of directional conviction and which extreme is most likely to
hold throughout the day. These labels are not carved in stone, however,
and should be used only as a guideline for learning. Like the day types
discussed in Chapter 2, the importance is not in the labels but in the level
of market directional conviction that is displayed. The four types of
opens are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Open-Drive
Open-Test-Drive
Open-Rejection-Reverse
Open-Auction
Open-Drive The strongest and most definitive type of open is the OpenDrive, An Open-Drive is generally caused by other timeframe participants who have made their market decisions before the opening bell.
The market opens and aggressively auctions in one direction. Fueled by
strong other timeframe activity, price never returns to trade back
through the opening range. Figure 4—1 illustrates the Open-Drive.
On April 10, copper opened above the previous day's value area
and promptly trended upward. The strong, driving activity on the part
of the buyer indicated a high level of market confidence. Figure 4-1
shows an aggressive 12-tick initiative buying tail in "A" period that ignited a Double-Distribution Buying Trend day. In the majority of cases,
the extreme left behind after an Open-Drive will hold for the entire day.
The market's behavior during an Open-Drive open can be compared
to a thoroughbred racehorse just as the bell sounds and the gates swing
open, Both the market and the racehorse explode with confidence running high-—their goals are obvious and their direction dear. If a trader
expects to trade such a market, he must act quickly or be left in the dust.
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Open-Drive activity sends clear signals to the trader regarding the
type of day to expect-a Trend or Normal Variation day. It also enables
the trader to enter positions earlier, before confirmation by structure. Examine Figure 4-1 again. Notice the difference between the trade location
for longs entered during the A period tail or the B period pullback, versus longs entered with range extension in C period. On this day, both
would probably have resulted in profitable trades; however, A and B
period longs gained much better trade location. Understanding Open-Drive
activity helps traders stay one step ahead of structure.
The extreme established by the Open-Drive remains a reliable reference point throughout the day. If the market eventually returns to trade
through the open and erase the tail, the trader is alerted to the fact that
conditions have changed and trades should be exited.
Open-Test-Drive An Open-Test-Drive is similar to an Open-Drive, except
that the market lacks the initial confidence necessary to drive immediately after the opening bell. During this type of open, the market generally opens and tests beyond a known reference point (previous day's high
or low, bracket top or bottom, etc.) to make sure there is no new business
to be done in that direction. The market then reverses and auctions swiftly back through the open. This activity, a "failed" initial test followed by
a drive in the opposite direction, often establishes one of the day's extremes. An Open-Test-Drive provides the second most reliable type of
extreme after the Open-Drive. Figure 4-2 illustrates an Open-Test-Drive
occurring in Soybeans.
The Open-Test-Drive is a classic example of how the human elements so often influence market behavior. In Figure 4-2, Soybeans had
been balancing (as is evidenced by the successive days of narrowing,
overlapping value), following a sharp break to the downside on April 3
that established a new long-term low at 708. When a market is in
balance, there is little directional conviction among the participants.
Traders need confidence if they are to participate in a sustained move in
either direction. Thus, in the case of the soybean market on this day,
before other timeframe buyers could begin an up auction with any de~
gree of confidence, they needed to test below the 708 longer term low to
"see" if lower prices attracted new activity (new other timeframe
sellers, in this case). When the test below actually discouraged activity,
buyers could then probe to the upside with conviction. The result was an
Open-Test-Drive that brought in increased activity as soybeans auctioned
higher. As the saying goes, sometimes markets need to "break to rally"
and "rally to break." Often times participants need the security of knowing
what is below the lows or above the highs before they can move the market with
confidence.
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In hindsight, the soybean market activity on April 10 and the ideal
trades that should have been entered are relatively easy to see and understand. In reality, however, ''pulling the trigger" and placing a trade
*was an extremely difficult task. Let us evaluate the situation confronting
soybean traders on this day. First, the longer term auction was down.
Second, the previous five days had recorded basically overlapping value
areas, indicating balance. And third, on the 10th the initial "break-out"
appeared to be to the downside. When the market opened and swiftly
auctioned below the balance area lows, it was easy to assume that price
was going to move substantially lower.
When price stalled around 7041/2, it was difficult to remain objective.
The break-out to the downside was initiative activity, which should have
brought in new activity and displayed immediate continuation—but
there was no follow-through. When the break-out failed and price began
to auction higher, longs should have been placed with the knowledge
that the price probe below the balance area lows had actually shut off
activity (longs should have been entered when price returned to the
region of the previous day's value area, if not sooner).
This trade was extremely difficult to execute because it flew in the face of
the most recent market activity. Even if a trader possesses a sound enough
market understanding to recognize such an opportunity, the ability to
execute still depends on the power of his or her own self-understanding.
The anxiety created by the thought of placing a trade against strong opposing activity often influences a trader's ability to trade rationally. This
is where the power of experience takes over. As you begin to personally
witness and then experience more and more of these unique opportunities, you will gradually build the self confidence required to become
a player, instead of a spectator.
The strategy for Open-Test-Drive days is similar to that of the
Open-Drive, with the understanding that the tested extreme has a slightly lower probability of holding. Again, look for a Normal Variation or
Trend day to develop. The odds favor placing trades in the direction of
the driving activity, as close as possible to the tested extreme. However,
during this type of open (like the Open-Drive), placing the trade early is
more important than the immediate trade location. If you wait to buy a
pullback or wait to get perfect trade location, you will often miss the
opportunity altogether.
Once price has driven in one direction, it should not return to the
point where the drive began, because the participants who initially drove
price should still be willing to act in that area. A return through the
opening range often indicates that conditions have changed and the
Open-Test-Drive extreme is no longer a reliable trading reference point.
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In the Open-Drive and Open-Test-Drive, the initial extreme is established by the early entry of an aggressive other timeframe buyer or seller.
Extremes created by such conditions are useful day timeframe reference
points and indicate which way the market is trying to go. Unfortunately,
these openings are not nearly as common as the Open-Rejection-Reverse
and the Open-Auction, which lack clear-cut conviction. These final two
types of openings are, however, equally important to day timeframe
strategy.
Open-Rejection-Reverse The Open-Rejection-Reverse is characterized by a
market that opens, trades in one direction, and then meets opposite activity strong enough to reverse price and return it back through the
opening range. The initial extreme is established when buying or selling
in one direction dies out, the auction stalls, and opposite activity begins
to auction price in the other direction. An Open-Rejection-Reverse type
of open is less convinced of its direction when compared to the OpenDrive and Open-Test-Drive. Because of the lower level of directional conviction, initial extremes generally hold less than half of the time. This is
not to say that opposite activity strong enough to return price back
through the opening is insignificant. However, in terms of gauging the
strength of an extreme and assessing the day type that will develop, the
early entry of the other timeframe in the Open-Drive is stronger than the
late entry of the Open-Rejection-Reverse. Figure 4-3 illustrates the OpenRejection-Reverse.
In this example, the Swiss franc opened below the previous day's
value area, traded lower and eventually found responsive buyers below
.6630. Buyers returned price up and through the opening range in Z
period. Such activity provided the trader with three important pieces of
information:
1. Lower directional conviction indicates that this will be a twosided trading day, balancing between the other timeframe
buyer and seller. The probability of a Trend day is low.
2. A Normal or Normal Variation type of day should be expected.
3. Since the Y period initial extreme has a relatively low chance of
holding, there is a strong possibility that the market will return
to retest the opening range.
The key to trading an Open-Rejection-Reverse type of day is
patience. As is shown by early trade in Figure 4-3, shortly after the
"Rejection-Reverse" the Swiss Franc quickly auctioned higher. This is
often the case following Open-Rejection-Reverse type of activity.
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Through C period the market appeared strong and well on its way to a
big move to the upside. Less experienced traders often get so caught up
in the swift price movement that they "jump on board," thinking that a
prime buying opportunity might be slipping away. It is important to
remember, however, that Open-Rejection-Reverse activity conveys a
much lower level of conviction. Understanding this lack of conviction,
combined with the patience and discipline to wait for the market to
rotate back to you, will come through experience.
Open-Auction At first glance, Open-Auction activity reflects a market
with no apparent conviction at all. The market appears to open and randomly auction above and below the opening range. In reality, the conviction reflected by an Open-Auction largely depends on where the market
opens relative to the previous day. An Open-Auction open that occurs
inside the previous day's range conveys a different opinion regarding
potential day timeframe development than an Open-Auction that occurs
outside the range. In general, if a market opens and auctions within the
previous day's value area and range, then a nonconvictional day will
usually develop. If, however, a market opens outside the previous day's
range and then auctions around the open, the conditions are markedly
different. Here, the market has opened out-of-balance. In this case, while
early Open-Auction structure may suggest nonconviction, the fact that the
market is out of balance means that there is good potential for a dramatic price
move in either direction. This type of Open-Auction activity often gives rise
to Double-Distribution Trend days. We follow with a discussion on both
types of Open-Auction activity.
Open-Auction in Range If a market opens within the region of the previous
day's range and auctions, market sentiment has probably not changed.
Initial extremes formed by Open-Auction activity are not established by
aggressive other timeframe activity. Rather, the market auctions in one
direction until activity slows, then auctions in the other direction. The
other timeframe is not present with any large degree of confidence. Figure 4-4 illustrates Open-Auction in range activity.
An Open-Auction in range generally sets the stage for a Nontrend,
Normal, or Neutral type of day. The low market conviction suggests that
any extreme established early on has a low probability of holding
throughout the day. Referring to the Treasury bond market for June 30th
in Figure 4-4, after opening within June 29th's value area, price auctioned above and below the open with ease in B and C periods. Such
seemingly random trade indicated that the bond market was in balance
and that its participants held little directional conviction. Without this
knowledge, however, a trader could have been fooled into selling with
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the C period selling range extension, thinking it meant that strong other
timeframe sellers were present. The Open-Auction within range made it
clear early on that a "big day" would be unlikely.
Open-Auction in range strategy is straightforward. Patiently wait
for the market to establish its extremes and perceived value area, and
then look to trade the value area extremes. If a good trading opportunity
does not develop and a Nontrend type of day occurs, it is often wise to
simply stand aside and wait for new activity.
Open-Auction Out Of Range When a market opens outside of the previous
day's range and then auctions around the open, one's first impression is
that there is no directional conviction present. In reality, the mere fact
that the opening is beyond the previous day's range suggests that new
other timeframe activity has caused price to seek a higher or lower level.
Given that the market has opened out of balance, there is a greater
chance that directional conviction will develop than if the market had
opened and auctioned within the range. On March 22 in Figure 4-5, for
example, the Treasury bond market opens and auctions substantially
above the value area and range for the previous day. In comparison to
the Open-Auction in range example in Figure 4-4, the activity up to the
first three time periods in Figure 4-5 (up to the point of range extension)
appears very similar:
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However, it is evident in the two examples that an Open-Auction
outside of range has the potential to be a big day, while an Open-Auction within value usually lacks conviction. This is evidenced in the fact
that March 22 developed into a Selling Trend day, while June 30 resulted
in a narrow Normal Variation day. This concept is discussed at further
length in the next section of this chapter.
Summary The labels we have given the four types of openings are
designed only to make them easier to learn and remember. In reality,
two openings will seldom look alike, and textbook examples are rare.
What is important about the marker's open is the notion that it is possible to evaluate market directional conviction very early in the trading
session.
The analysis of the day's open should not be used in isolation, but
as an integral part of understanding the big picture that gradually emerges as you learn and develop experience using the Market Profile. As a
refresher, Figure 4-6 is a summary of the four types of opening activity.
Opening's Relationship to Previous Day—Estimating Daily Range
Potential In the large majority of cases, activity during any given day
has direct and measurable implications on the following day. It is only
on the relatively rare occasion when a market moves extremely out of
balance that there is no correlation between two consecutive days. Understanding these implications enables a trader to more successfully
visualize developing market activity.
The simple fact of whether a new day opens within or outside of
the previous day's range helps a trader gauge two key day timeframe
elements: (1) trade risk and opportunity, and (2) estimating, or visualizing, the day's potential range development. The salient concept here is
market balance. The relationship of the open to the previous day's value
area and range gives valuable clues to the market's state of balance and
what kind of risk/opportunity relationship to expect on a given trading
day. In short, the greatest risk and opportunity arise when a market
opens outside of the previous day's range. This indicates that the market
is out of balance. When a market opens out of balance, the potential for a
dynamic move in either direction is high. Conversely, a market that
opens and is accepted (auctions for at least one hour) within the previous
day's value area embodies lower risk, but also less opportunity. The acceptance of price within the previous day's value area indicates balance,
and therefore reduces the potential for a dynamic move.
We will discuss three different opening/previous day relationships,
highlighting the potential trade risk, opportunity, and range development for each. The three relationships are:
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Open Within Value
Acceptance When a market opens within value and is accepted (overlapping TPOs signify value, or acceptance), this generally indicates that the
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market is in balance and that market sentiment has not changed dramatically from the previous day. Trade risk and opportunity are both relatively low. The day's range usually will be contained within the previous
day's range or overlap one of the previous day's extremes slightly to one
side. It is a trader's dream to know ahead of time what the day's range
will be. When a market opens and builds value within the previous day's
value area, it is possible—very early on—to make a rough estimate of the
developing day's range potential.
As mentioned before, the mere fact that a market opens and auctions within value indicates market sentiment has not changed significantly. Thus, generally, the developing range will rarely exceed the
length of the previous day's range. If you are confident that one of the
day's extremes will hold, to estimate the day's range potential you simply superimpose the length of the previous day's range from that extreme.
For example, suppose that after several time periods on a day that
opened within value, a buying tail supports the lower extreme and appears secure. The tail indicates other timeframe buyer presence and will
probably hold throughout the day, thus forming the bottom of the day's
Profile. If the previous day's range was 15 ticks, count up 15 ticks from
the bottom of the tail to find an approximate limit for the day's high.
While this is by no means a fool-proof rule, it does provide a consistent
approximation and contributes to the visualization needed to successfully trade in the day timeframe.
Before we proceed to an actual example, let us first present a few
guidelines for estimating range potential:
1. Determine the opening's relationship to the previous day's
value and range.
2. If an estimate is possible (acceptance in range), identify the initial extreme that has the greatest potential to hold. Then superimpose the length of the previous day's range to arrive at an
estimate.
3. Allow roughly 10 percent in either direction, recognizing that
this is just an estimate, not a prediction.
4. As the day develops, early extremes are erased or confirmed
and buyer or seller directional conviction becomes more evident, adjust the estimate if necessary.
Figure 4-7 illustrates range estimation for markets that open and
auction within the previous day's value area. The vertical line denoted
by Point A represents a completed day's range, with the black bar in the
middle designating the value area. On the following day, the market
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opens and auctions inside the previous day's value area, as is evidenced
by the auction rotations back and forth through the open. (The arrows at
Point B represent auction rotations, not necessarily half-hour time
'periods. The market may rotate several times in any given time period.)
What is most important is that the market is indeed establishing acceptance within the previous day's range and value area through time. This
indicates that conditions have not changed significantly from the previous day, and the market will probably demonstrate similar range
development (not necessarily the same high and low).
Point C in Figure 4-7 denotes the initial estimation of the day's
potential range. If the extreme left behind after the first auction down
eventually forms an A period selling tail, it has the potential to be the
day's high. If this is the case, the range is estimated to be the length
indicated by the dotted line at Point C. The range potential is determined
by super-imposing the length of the previous day's range downward,
starting from the top of the selling tail. These early estimates, however,
should be used only as a general guideline and must be monitored carefully for change. For example, as the day progresses in Figure 4-7, if the
market auctions back up above the selling tail, a new range must be calculated. The probe to the upside in C period (denoted by Point D)
creates the need to reestimate the range, for it extends above the initial
high and leaves behind a B period buying tail on the low. Given the new
extreme created by the up auction in C period, the new estimate would
be about the length of the dotted line represented by Point E.
Let us now look at a real market example. Figure 4-8 shows S&P
activity on September 23,1988. The market opened within value, which
suggested that conditions for the S&P had not changed overnight. However, immediately following the open in B period, price "drove out" of
value to the downside, indicating a potential change in market sentiment. If early seller conviction had been genuine, the selling auction
should have continued below the previous day's value area, and ultimately the previous day's low. However, other timeframe sellers did
not successfully challenge the low of the 22nd, an important day
timeframe reference point. In fact, in C period, the S&P market rotated
back up into the value area and above the open, thus negating the apparent confidence that was reflected by the early Open-Drive selling activity. The fact that the market was spending time auctioning within the
region of the previous day's value area (building multiple TPO prints)
indicated that market sentiment had changed and that, at best, overlapping value would develop. Moreover, based on the information
generated through C period, it was unlikely that the day's trade would
bring significant movement in either direction. For, while the seller was
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unable to sustain the opening drive, the buyer did not have the confidence of knowing what was below the 22nd's lows.
Having already visualized eventual overlapping value, and given
the development of a B period buying tail, the trading opportunities in
day timeframe longs should be visible. The rejection of the B period selling probe indicated the probable formation of a day timeframe low at
270.30. By adding the length of the 22nd's range (285 points) to the B
period lower extreme, it was possible to estimate that the high on the
23rd would be in the area of 273.15. In this case, the range estimate
proved to be exact (not a common occurrence). Longs placed during the
slowing of price in D, E, and F periods had good potential to be successful trades.
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Rejection (Break-out) When a market opens within the previous day's
value area and drives out during the first half-hour of trade (does not
build double TPOs to signify acceptance within value), the market could
be breaking out of balance. If the early break-out drives price completely
beyond the limits of the previous day's range, then both risk and opportunity are high and range estimation is unlimited in the direction of the
initiative drive (Figure 4-9).
A market that opens and is accepted within the previous day's
value area is like a rubber ball bouncing along a level sidewalk. As long
as the surface remains flat (or the market continues to open in balance)
the ball will rebound off the pavement much like it did during the previous bounce. In contrast, if the sidewalk is cracked and broken (not
"balanced"), it is impossible to determine how far or in which direction
the ball will bounce (Figure 4-10). Similarly, if the market opens out of
balance, it is difficult to tell which way the market will auction and with
what force it will move. Over the next several pages we briefly discuss
the remaining opening/previous day relationships and the potential
range development for each. The guidelines introduced earlier for estimating range potential apply to these discussions as well.
Open Outside of Value but Within Range
Acceptance A market that opens outside of the previous day's value area
but within range is not as balanced as an open within value, but the
market is still "bouncing on flat pavement." It is as if the ball simply
bounced over a curb to land in the street. The ball will bounce about the
same net distance, but the height will be reduced by the distance from
the sidewalk to the street (Figure 4-11). Similarly, a day that opens
within range but outside of value will generally produce a range that is
similar to the previous day, but overlapping to one side. The risk on this
type of day is slightly greater than the previous open relationship, but
the opportunity is greater as well. Openings outside of value but within
range indicate a market slightly out of balance and usually result in
value that overlaps to one side.
The method for range estimation used for "Openings Within Value"
applies equally well here. The resulting range development will usually
extend beyond the previous day's high or low, for the market opens
closer to one of the previous day's extremes.
Rejection (Break-out) On this type of day, the market opens above or
below the previous day's value area but still within the previous day's
range. If the market subsequently breaks-out beyond the extremes of the
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previous day's range, then the market is coming out of balance and
range potential is unlimited in the direction of the break-out (Figure Ar--).
Open Outside of Range
Acceptance When a market opens outside of the previous day's range
and is accepted, conditions have changed and the market is out of
balance. At this point, one of two scenarios are possible: (1) the market
will continue to drive in the direction of the break-out; or (2) the market
will begin to auction back and forth at the new price levels (Figure 4-13
illustrates these two relationships). In both cases, as long as price does
not return to the previous day's range, the market has accepted the
break-out.
The greatest imbalance occurs in the first scenario, when a market
opens beyond the previous day's range and continues in the direction of
the break-out (Figure 4-13). The movement away from value is initiative
and the other timeframe often moves price with great speed and conviction. Range potential is unlimited in the direction of the break-out, and a
trend day is usually the result.
This type of open offers the greatest potential to the trader who
recognizes the opportunity early and positions him- or herself with the
break-out. However, it also poses the greatest risk to the trader who attempts to trade against the driving initiative auction.
A market out of balance is like a ball that ricochets off a piece of
jagged concrete—there is no way to estimate how far it will bounce.
Potential range development is unlimited and risk is extremely high for
the trader who is positioned the wrong way. Accompanied by increased
risk, however, is also the potential for greater opportunity. An open outside of range offers the potential for a highly successful and profitable
trade if market direction is detected early.
Rejection When a market opens beyond the previous day's range and is
rejected back into the range, the potential for a dynamic price move in the
direction opposite to the opening break-out is set into motion. A typical
example would be a market that opens too far above the previous day's
high, fails to follow through, and is quickly "corrected" by responsive
sellers who return price to previously accepted value. The day's range
potential is still unlimited, for the market opened out of balance and
could move significantly in the opposite direction. Figure 4-14 illustrates •
the range estimation for a market whose opening break-out is rejected.
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Summary Simply keeping track of where the market opens in relation to
the previous day's range and value area is valuable market-generated
information. A market that opens within value is generally in balance
and awaiting new information. A market that opens outside of value is
out of balance, and carries with it greater opportunity and risk. By synthesizing the opening's relationship to the previous day with other
market-generated elements, such as the opening type and initiative/responsive activity, it is possible to trade with a more objective understanding of the big picture.
While writing this segment of the book, a day developed in the
market that exhibited many of the opening/value relationships we have
just covered. April 13,1989, will serve as a review and summation of the
concepts introduced in this section.
April 13,1989 Before the market opened on Thursday, April 13th,
traders knew that the Retail Sales number would be announced at 7:30.
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In addition, five major figures were to be released on the following day:
Merchandise Trade, Producer Price Index, Business Inventories, Capacity
Utilization and Industrial Production. And, as usual, a variety of predictions and contradicting speculations arose from all sides of the market.
The anxiety among market participants was understandably high. To further complicate matters, Switzerland unexpectedly raised its interest
rates soon after the foreign currency futures opened on the IMM. With
all these external elements playing havoc in the market, it was difficult to
remain calm and objective. However, traders with a firm understanding
of the dynamics of opening/value relationships saw many good trading
opportunities unfold on April 13. The following discussion focuses on
the development of six markets: crude oil, S&P 500, gold, Japanese yen,
soybeans and Treasury bonds.
Crude Oil In Figure 4-15, crude oil opened substantially above the previous day's high. Any such opening that is clearly above or below the
previous day's range is known as a "gap." A gap is the result of initiative other timeframe activity and indicates that the market is out of
balance. In this example, however, the other timeframe buyer who
caused the gap higher opening was unable to take control and continue
the buying auction. In addition, the development of a narrow initial
balance (Point A in Figure 4-15) alerted traders to the potential for a
Double Distribution Trend day in either direction.
Given that crude oil was out of balance and carried the potential for
a Double Distribution Trend day, traders should have been ready to
enter trades with range extension on either side of the initial balance.
Buying range extension would signal a potentially big day to the upside.
Selling range extension would indicate that the market had opened too
far out of balance and that responsive sellers had entered to return price
to value. The day's range potential was unlimited in both directions because of the open out of balance.
Responsive sellers did, in fact, enter and extend the range down.
Traders placing shorts with the selling range extension were well positioned to take advantage of a dynamic downside move that ultimately
retraced the previous day's range and closed on its lows.
S&P 500 In Figure 4-16, the S&P "gapped" open below the 12th's range
(out of balance), indicating the potential for a big move to the downside
or an "outside day" if price should return up to trade through the gap
and retrace the previous day's range. In either case, the potential range
development could be very large. After C and D periods failed to trade
back into the previous day's range, it became evident that the market
was indeed out of balance. The day's range expectations became un-
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limited to the downside, and optimal trade location could have been
gained in the auction rotations of E, F, and G periods before the market
broke swiftly in what resulted in a Double Distribution Selling Trend
day.
The previous four days in the S&P had recorded successively higher
highs. On the 13th, many traders had this fact so firmly implanted in
their minds that they responded emotionally to the price break, thinking
it was a prime opportunity to buy a strong market below value. Over
weighting or focusing on just one or two facts can lead to tunnel vision
and inhibit one's ability to see the bigger, developing picture. On the
other hand, traders who understood day timeframe structure could have
recognized the imbalance indicated by the opening out of range and
entered the short side of the market
Gold Gold on the 13th provided an excellent example of the value of
range estimation. In Figure 4-17, the market opened and drove out of the
previous day's value area and range, suggesting a potentially big day on
the upside. However, in Z period gold auctioned back down to build
double TPO prints in the 12th's value area, thus establishing value and
limiting the day's expectations. When Z period was unable to extend
below the open, thus confirming the Open-Drive structure and Y period
buying tail, it was possible to estimate the range for the 13th by adding
the length of the 12th's range to the Y period low. The range potential for
the 13th, then, was roughly 392.60 to 397.20, give or take 10 percent.
Using this range, longs placed in the Z period pull-back could have been
successfully exited near the day's highs.
The area around 393.00 in the gold market had been a support level
in the past, and many traders were waiting for a break-out. The OpenDrive activity and quick buying auctions in Z and A periods might have
inferred that a big move to the upside was developing, leading many
traders to buy all the way up the range. However, traders who recognized that the day's range potential was limited due to acceptance within
the 12th's value area could have curbed any high expectations and identified areas providing good trade location.
Japanese Yen The activity in the Japanese yen on the 13th displays the
significance of acceptance (or nonacceptance) within the previous day's
range and value area. In Figure 4-18 the yen opened and auctioned just
outside of the range of the 12th. In Z period, a selling auction into the
previous day's range was flatly rejected, forming a buying tail. Despite
the Z period price probe down, the base (initial balance) for the 13th
remained relatively narrow. This fact, combined with the open out of
value and the rejected attempt to auction down into the previous day's
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range, confirmed that the yen was out of balance and that buyers were :in
control. Because value was not established in the 12th's range (except for
one tick), the expectations for the day were unlimited to the upside.
Longs placed after the Z period rejection or with the A period range
extension resulted in excellent day timeframe trade location.
Soybeans In soybeans on the 13th, the market opened in balance, immediately alerting the trader that sentiment had not changed significantly
from the 12th. Figure 4-19 shows that in D period, soybeans were unable
to auction price above the previous day's highs and subsequently
returned down to trade through the open in E period. However, without
the confidence provided by knowing what was beyond the 12th's highs,
sellers could not be expected to auction price significantly lower. By superimposing the length of the 12th's range from the top of the D period
selling tail, it was possible to estimate the developing range to be from
roughly 7231/2 to 7291/2. Traders acting without this knowledge might
have sold with the initiative range extensions in G and H periods. Shorts
placed at these levels resulted in poor day timeframe trade location (near
the day's lows), as was indicated early by the range estimate.
Treasury Bonds Treasury bonds opened in range and were accepted
within the previous day's value area in Z period (Figure 4-20). While just
two ticks of double TPO prints within the 12th's value area might seem
insignificant because of the narrow range on the 12th, two ticks actually
accounted for a third of the value area. This day developed into a trading day with no real conviction. Due to the open within value, it was
apparent early on that this day would be similar to the 12th—a day in
which it would have been best to stand aside and wait for directional
conviction to develop.
Summary We have now completed our discussion of the market's open:
from the opening call to the actual open and its relationship to the previous day. As we proceed farther into the day, remember to consider
each new piece of learning in relation to the whole. The big picture continues to unfold and more of the fogged window is becoming clear as
you move closer to becoming a competent trader.
Day Timeframe Auction Rotations Based on information we have
covered thus far, let us review the process a trader might go through in
developing his or her day timeframe strategy. The first signs of underly- •
ing market sentiment are formed during the succession of opening calls,
which alerts the trader to possible directional conviction before the
markets opens. He or she then monitors the conviction demonstrated by
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the opening, as well as the opening's relationship to the previous day's
value area and range. At this point which is generally within the first
hour of trade, the trader should have a good feel for the confidence behind the market's initial activity and the likelihood of its continuation.
The next step in the day's analysis develops as the market's auction rotations reveal other timeframe activity and control.
Think of the marketplace as a game in which the other timeframe
buyer and seller are vying for control. In the simplest sense, when the
buyer is in control, prices tend to rise. When the seller is in control,
prices generally fall, like a vertical tug-of-war. When only one participant
(usually either the other timeframe buyer or seller) is in control, the
market is referred to as a "one-timeframe market." A one-timeframe
market is characteristic of a Trend day. Interestingly, a Nontrend day is
also a one-timeframe market. During a Nontrend day, control is also in
the hands of just one participant—the local.
If neither party is in complete control, price fluctuates up and down
as one side pulls and tires, then the other, and so on. When both the
other timeframe and the day timeframe participants are sharing control,
the market is in a "two-timeframe" mode. Two-timeframe market conditions are common during Normal, Normal Variation, or Neutral days.
During a two-timeframe market, the trader must exercise greater
patience, for more time is required before other timeframe control becomes evident (if at all).
Consistent off-floor trading results are most often achieved by trading with the control of the other timeframe participant. Obviously, this
requires that one be able to determine who (if anyone) is in control, and
second, when that control may be wavering or reversing altogether.
Monitoring the development of the day's half-hour auction rotations
helps identify which participant is in control of price at a given moment
in time. Before examining how day timeframe auction rotations help discern other timeframe control, let us first discuss the two basic forms of
other timeframe market control in greater detail.
Two-timeframe Markets In a two-timeframe market, either the other
timeframe buyer or seller (or both) share control with the day timeframe
participant. Price rotates up and down without clear directional conviction, like a balanced tug-of-war. The resulting activity is similar to the
formation of a day timeframe "bracket." The Profile graphic in Figure
4-21 provides a good example of two-timeframe activity.
During two-timeframe market conditions, examination of the individual half hour auctions (each time period viewed separately) does
not generally reveal a dominance by either party. Notice from Figure
4-21 how successive time periods tend to rotate upon each other and fail
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to generate sustained price movement (B overlaps A on the low side, D
overlaps C on the high side, etc.). Neither other timeframe participant is in
control.
One-Timeframe Markets In contrast, occasionally one participant gains
the upper hand, causing price to auction (or trend) in one direction for a
sustained period of time. The market is controlled almost entirely by
either the other timeframe buyer or other timeframe seller. Such
unilateral control is referred to as a one-timeframe market (a day
timeframe trending market). A one-timeframe market is like an uneven
tug-of-war in which one side is clearly stronger and steadily gains
ground. The thin, elongated Trend day Profile, shown in Figure 4-22, is a
good example of a one-timeframe market.
Trend days signify a high level of other timeframe conviction, are
characterized by range extension occurring in one direction during
several time periods. Referring to Figure 4-22, notice that the downward
rotations (Z, C, D, F, G, H, and I) are generally stronger than the rotations up (A, B, and E). One-timeframe seller control is evidenced by the
inability of the buyer to successfully rotate price upward beyond the previous time period's auction high during two or more successive time
periods. Successively lower rotations translate into repeated selling range
extension.
Using Auction Rotations to Evaluate Other Timeframe Control Determining which other timeframe participant is in control within the halfhour auctions, once again, falls into the two familiar categories: market
structure and market time. Both play an important role in understanding
and evaluating other timeframe control.
Structure In the Advanced Beginner chapter, we discussed how to
monitor other timeframe control using structural features such as the
TPO count, tails, range extension, and initiative and responsive activity.
In this section we take a closer look at evaluating other timeframe control
through the marker's half-hour auctions and their offspring-tails and
range extension. Our goal is not to simply identify control, but also to
determine when it may be changing intraday. This concept, called
"timeframe transition," will be illustrated following a brief discussion of
Time.
Half-hour Auctions By now, it should be clear that the half-hour auctions
provide a vivid picture of the marker's "composure" at any point in
time. The half-hour auctions are illustrated in Figure 4-22.
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Not only does the relationship of one auction (time period) to
another reflect the ongoing status of control, but the auction is often one
of the first structural features to signal when control may be shifting.
Subtle changes occurring within the auctions are often the precursor to
dramatic changes that do not appear until much later in the form of tails
and range extension. As we noted earlier, if you wait to enter a trade
until after the market commits itself, you generally will not gain the
favorable trade location that is so important to making objective, rational
trading decisions. Tails and range extension are strong indicators, but if
you rely solely on them to judge timeframe transition, you will often be
too late, for they are by-products of the market's auctions. Later, in the discussion entitled 'Timeframe Transition," we detail one approach to
evaluating subtle changes in the day timeframe auctions.
Extremes The extremes, or tails, often provide the most obvious evidence
of other timeframe control. Tails are created when the other timeframe
buyer or seller enters the market aggressively when they feel that price is
away from value. Generally, the longer the tail, the greater the conviction
behind the move.
In terms of other timeframe control, no tail on the extreme is also
significant. The absence of aggressive other timeframe activity on an extreme indicates a lack of buyer or seller conviction. In terms of practical
trading applications, consider a rising market that shows no tail on the
day's low. Such a scenario suggests that it may be wise to take gains
earlier than one might if a tail were present, for the market is subject to a
possible reversal.
Range Extension Range extension is another structural feature generated
by the market's auctions that identifies other timeframe control and
helps gauge buyer/seller strength. Multiple-period range extension is the
result of successively higher or lower auctions. The stronger the control,
the more elongated the range extension. If the range is extended in multiple time periods to the upside, for instance, it is apparent that the market
is trying to auction higher and the other timeframe buyer is exerting a
relatively high degree of control. It is important to monitor this attempted direction for continuation to determine the success of the
market's attempts to go that way. Like all structural features, range extension is most useful when taken into consideration with the rest of the
big picture, such as the auction rotations and tails.
Time The second, and perhaps most important ingredient in evaluating
timeframe control is time. As we have noted before, time is the market's
regulator and is responsible for creating the structures we later identify
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and interpret. Simply stated, the less time a market spends trading at a
particular price level the lower its acceptance of those prices. If the
market moves very quickly through a particular price region, then there
is strong other timeframe presence at those prices which they will
generally serve as support or resistance in the future. For example, a selling tail is the result of swift rejection by the other timeframe seller at
prices perceived to be above value. The quicker the rejection, the
stronger the other timeframe presence at that price level
Conversely, the more time spent at a particular price level, the
greater the acceptance of that price. Greater time indicates that two-sided
trade is occurring, and that both the other timeframe buyer and seller are
probably active. It is important to note, however, that time can be a twoedged sword. If a market is not successful auctioning in one direction
over time, control may reverse as the market seeks to facilitate trade in
the opposite direction. If the market spends too much time at a given
level, price will ultimately be rejected.
The ability to identify the difference between enough time and too
much time is the key to anticipating a change in control. Understanding
and Interpreting market activity according to time—instead of relying
solely on structure—improves one's recognition and execution speed.
Time provides the signal, structure provides the confirmation. An understanding of time allows the trader to enter the market when control first
begins to change, rather than waiting until it is confirmed by structure.
Time, however, is an intangible concept and is therefore very difficult to learn through a derivative source. Not until you personally observe the effect of time in the marketplace and gain experience through
trading will you come to realize and respect the overwhelming power of
time.
Identifying Timeframe Transition Most trading days do not develop into a
pure one-timeframe or two-timeframe market, just as most tug-of-wars
are neither perfectly balanced nor a total upset. Day timeframe development generally involves a degree of give and take—one side rallies for a
substantial gain, then the opponent responds with greater effort in order
to balance the contest, followed by another rally, and so on. In a tug-ofwar, it is possible to anticipate a change in control by listening to the
participants on either team psyching themselves up for a new attack.
While varying noise levels on the exchange floor often signify
change, it is not of much help to the off-floor trader. However, the Market
Profile is a conduit for "listening to the floor." By observing the developing
structure of the Profile, it is possible to identify timeframe transitions as
they occur. The off-floor trader might even have an advantage over the
floor traders who are right there in the action and apparent chaos, for the
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Profile reflects composite market activity. In a crowded pit, traders may
have access to only a portion of the total activity.
Although each day develops differently, there are a few general
categories of timeframe transition that we can identify:
1. No transition; either one-timeframe or two-timeframe all day;
Example: A Trend day (one timeframe) or most Normal days
(two timeframe).
2. One-timeframe to two-timeframe trade.
Example: A price probe beyond a known reference point
(such as a previous day's high or a weekly high, etc.) does
not attract new activity, causing the market to return to two
timeframe trade.
3. Two-timeframe to one-timeframe trade.
Example: A market that is in a trading range near a known
reference point that provides resistance or support, then
price breaks through and a trend situation results.
4. One-timeframe in one direction to one-timeframe in the
opposite direction.
Example: A Neutral day.
Not only do structure and time help determine who is in control,
but they are also useful in identifying when control may be shifting. To
demonstrate the interplay between time and structure when evaluating
timeframe transition, refer to Figure 4-23 as we walk through the activity
occurring in the Swiss franc on October 12,1987.
December Swiss Franc, October 12,1987 Activity on this day was characterized by early morning one-timeframe buying, a midmorning transition
to one-timeframe selling, followed by a late return to one-timeframe
buying. Using a "running Profile" helps traders visualize and monitor
timeframe transition. A running Profile separates the day into selected
time periods, starting with evidence of a change in control. The following
points of discussion use Figure 4-23 to illustrate the changes in control
that developed in the Swiss franc on October 12.
Y-E: One-timeframe Buying One-timeframe buying control prevails
during Y through E periods. Notice the successively higher (or equal)
half-hour auction periods. Buyer control translated into buying range extension in A, B, and D periods. The lack of significant downward rotation shows a conspicuous absence of the other timeframe seller.
E: Time In E period, price slows. Buyers spent better than a full
period near the high and were unable to extend the range further. Time,
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in this case too much time, provides the first indication that control may
be shifting,
Y-F: Auction Test F period sees the seller enter and rotate price
down below the E period .6710 auction low. This deliberate opposite
rotation is viewed as a "test" of buyer control. Markets, being controlled
by people, often behave like people. Within any trend, markets need to
pause, reflect on where they are, test in the opposite direction, and so
on—all in an effort to determine if they have traveled too far, or have yet
to probe farther. Temporary pauses amid strong price and value trends
are a natural, logical part of the market auction process.
The question to be answered in succeeding time periods is: Does
this initial rotation against the one-timeframe activity reflect a loss of
buyer control, or is the buyer merely taking a "breather."
G: Transition Confirmation "Double prints" (two time period TPO
prints) against a one-timeframe auction often confirm that the onetimeframe activity has ended. Double TPO prints indicate that the
market has spent sufficient time rotating in one direction to justify a
potential timeframe transition.
The "FG" double prints at .6702—double prints below the .6710 E
period low-suggest that buyers were not just resting, but had relinquished control. The transition, in this case, is either to two-timeframe
trade or one-timeframe selling. It is too early to tell, structurally, which
will result.
Note, however, that even though timeframe control has apparently
shifted, the seller was not aggressive enough to generate a selling tail on
the high. The "DE" double TPO print on the day's high represents a high
made by time, not aggressive opposite activity. This indicates a general
lack of conviction on the part of the seller, and suggests that traders
looking for an opportunity to sell this market should exercise caution.
E-H: One-timeframe Selling A running Profile starting with E period
(when the one-timeframe upward rotation first slowed) indicates onetimeframe selling extending from E period to midway through H period.
H: Auction Test In H period, buyers rotated price above the G
period auction high, this time testing the seller's strength. The strong H
period buying tail reflects staunch rejection of lower prices, and stands as
an indication of aggressive other timeframe buying.
I: Transition Confirmation Double "HI" prints at .6704 confirm yet
another timeframe transition, this time from selling to buying.
H-J: One-timeframe Buying Following the double "HI" period
prints, buyers tested and extended the range on the upside once again.
Notice also that buyers had little difficulty extending the range beyond
the .6716 "DE" previous high, an extreme established earlier by a nonconviction seller.
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Summary Two-timeframe trade did occur during the periods of
transition (F and H periods); however, the speed of the transition indicates a virtual immediate transfer of control, rather than a tug-of-war
scenario,
Auction Failures We have mentioned the term "follow-through" quite
frequently—in our discussions of trends, break-outs, initiative activity,
during the open, and so on. In fact, follow-through is essentially the
answer to the question, "How good of a job is the market doing in its
attempts to auction in a certain direction?" Without follow-through to
the upside during a bull trend, the market, in effect, fails to auction
higher. Without follow-through in a golf swing, the golfer fails to successfully hit the ball. And without follow-through in a business negotiation, even the most promising deal will likely fail. The point is that
failure to follow through is just as significant as successful followthrough when monitoring market activity.
When a market auctions above or below a known reference point,
one of two scenarios will develop: (1) new initiative activity will fuel
continuation beyond the reference point; or (2) the auction will fail to
follow through. After an auction failure, price is often rejected in the opposite direction with speed and conviction. The magnitude of this movement depends on the significance of the tested reference point. Known
reference points exist in many forms: daily high/low, weekly high/low,
monthly high/low, a break or rally point caused by an important news
announcement, bracket top/bottom, and so forth. The greater the variety
of other timeframe participants who are present at the tested reference
point, the greater the potential magnitude of the auction failure. For example, if a selling auction fails to continue below a bracket low that has
held for several months, day, swing, and other timeframe buyers will all
be "brought into" the market en masse, causing a high level of volatility.
The resulting rejection of such a long-term bracket extreme could trigger
a substantial rally and have a significant impact on the direction of the
longer-term auction.
Let us consider this example in greater detail. When price nears a
bracket bottom, many traders wait to see if the previous support level
will hold before entering the market. If the market should "fail" to breakout below the bracket bottom, these traders often respond quickly, causing the market to rally. Conversely, if price auctions through the bracket
low and is accepted, the same traders may enter the market on the sell
side, driving price lower and adding fuel to a strong initiative selling "
auction. Such longer-term auction failures are as important to the day
trader as they are to the longer-term participant. If a day trader is aware
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of longer-term support levels and reference points, he or she Is better
prepared to capitalize on (or protect him- or herself from) the dramatic
day timeframe price movement common during a longer-term auction
* failure. In fact, the longer the timeframe that the failure represents, the
greater the profit potential (and risk) that is often present in the market.
Figure 4-24 illustrates a longer-term auction failure in soybeans. On
April 3, 1989, soybeans recorded a new long term low at 708. The
soybean market then came into balance, as is evidenced by the four consecutive days of overlapping value that followed. Figure 4-25, on April
10th, shows the activity that occured shortly thereafter. Soybeans opened
in balance at 710 1/2 , then quickly drove below the low created on the 3rd
(708). However, the selling auction failed to generate new selling. Two
events generally happen after such a significant failure: (1) the participants who auctioned price lower (generally the short timeframe or
local) cover their shorts and reverse their position; and (2) other traders
become aware of the lack of selling below a known reference point and
enter the market with confidence (the opposite applies to a probe above a
significant reference point). On April 10, after the auction below the
balance area lows stalled, buyers responded and drove the soybean
market higher. The result was a Double Distribution Buying Trend day.
Traders who monitored the balance-area lows and the longer-term reference point at 708 could have used the auction failure to secure excellent
day timeframe trade location.
Auction failures at shorter timeframe reference points are generally
more subtle and result in smaller price movements when compared to
auction failures at longer timeframe reference points. However, the price
rejection that follows a short-term auction failure can still be swift and
substantial relative to normal day timeframe structure. Figure 4-26
shows a typical day timeframe auction failure occurring in the Treasury
bond market. On May 16, 1989, bonds auctioned below the previous
day's low (90.22) in Y period, but failed to follow through to the
downside. The market auctioned lower looking for more selling business,
but there were no sell stops or new activity to sustain the downward
price movement. Armed with the knowledge that there was no new selling below the short-term lows, bonds traded higher for the remainder of
the day and eventually closed on the highs.
Placing a trade after an auction failure is an incredibly challenging
task. In the previous example, the most recent Treasury bond activity
had been down, and the "crowd" was selling. When price slowed, indicating potential failure, it was not easy to enter the market as a responsive buyer. Again, the best trades often fly in the face of the most recent
market activity.
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Excess To achieve its primary goal of trade facilitation, the market auctions lower to find buyers and higher to attract sellers. Ideally, the
market finds a value range where both the other timeframe buyer and
seller perceive price to be fair so that two-sided trade can take place.
However, the market is effective, not efficient.1 Consequently, in its attempt to generate trade with all participants, the market occasionally
creates excess by auctioning too far in a given direction.
1
J. Peter Steidlmayer and Kevin Koy, Markets & Market Logic, The Free Press,
Chicago, 1986.
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Suppose that a local baker produces 1,000 loaves of bread daily,
which he sells for 50 cents each. Business is good at this price, and he
consistently sells every loaf he bakes. Because the demand for his homemade bread seems to have been on the rise, one morning the baker raises
his price to 55 cents a loaf and still sells every one. Pleased with the
results, he decides to charge 60 cents the next week, but finds he sells
just 800 loaves—higher prices began to discourage buying. The baker quickly
lowers the price back to 55 cents a loaf due to decreasing sales volume
and shrinking profits. The point is, he had to raise prices too far above
value to be sure that he had found a price that both he and the consumer
perceived to be fair. The baker's pricing method created an excess of 5
cents, the difference between the 60 cent extreme and 55 cent value.
Similarly, the market must auction too high to know when prices
are perceived to be above value and too low to know which prices are
considered to be below value. The potential for market excess occurs any
time price trends significantly out of balance, or away from value. Excess
is created when the other timeframe recognizes an opportunity and aggressively
enters the market, returning price to the perceived area of value. Evidence of
the resulting excess, in both the day and longer timeframe, can be identified through market structure.
Signs of Excess By definition, excess is useful only in hindsight analysis,
for it is not identifiable until it has already formed. While this is, in fact,
true, many of the structural characteristics reflected by the Profile help
identify excess quickly. Tails, for example, are simply day timeframe auction excess. Day timeframe excess is illustrated in Figure 4-27.
In Figure 4-27, the other timeframe was active on both ends of the
range, entering aggressively and creating day timeframe excess on both
extremes. Price auctioned lower in A period and was met by a strong
other timeframe buyer, establishing a buying tail. Conversely, an E
period buying price probe was rejected by the other timeframe seller,
creating a selling tail. Tails are perhaps the most common manifestation
of excess, and they occur in a similar way in the longer-term auction
process. Longer term excess is covered later in "Long-Term Trading."
Let's take a moment to look at excess from another, more conceptual, perspective. Any time a given price level is rejected quickly by the
market, excess is formed. The single prints separating the two areas of a
Double Distribution Trend day are a variety of excess. Just like a tail,
they represent prices perceived as away from value by the other
timeframe. A gap is also a form of market excess, for it is, in effect, an
"invisible tail."
The importance of any type of excess is that it represents an area
that should serve as support or resistance to price in the future. As long
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as conditions have not changed markedly, the other timeframe participant that drove price so vehemently should react similarly at those
same price levels. This is why a tail can be used to estimate range potential, for it is a reliable benchmark by which to gauge future activity.
The Rotation Factor As we near the end of Day Timeframe Auction
Rotations, we again address the question "Which way is the market trying
to go?" Thus far, we have discussed concepts such as directional conviction, initiative and responsive activity, and other timeframe control—all
of which provide bits and pieces of the answer to the first of the two Big
Questions. In the day timeframe, however, we have yet to provide a*
finite, objective answer to the question of market direction. We present
here a simple, objective means for evaluating day timeframe attempted
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direction based on the markets half-hour auction rotations. It is called the
Rotation Factor.
At any point in time within the day, segmenting the Profile into
half-hour auctions helps determine which other timeframe participant is
currently in control (or that neither is in control). However, it is not always easy to determine which participant is exerting greater overall influence. The Rotation Factor objectively evaluates a day's attempted
direction. Each auction rotation is measured step-by-step, allowing the
trader to discern overall daily directional attempts. Figure 4-28 provides
reference for the following discussion on how to calculate the Rotation
Factor.
The method for assigning a value to each time period's auction rotation is relatively simple. If the high of the current time period is higher
than the previous period's high, then the rotation is given a +1. If the
high is lower than the previous period's high, then it is assigned a -1.
Similarly, if a time period's low is higher than the previous period's low,
then a value of +1 is added. An auction bottom that is lower than the
previous period's low receives a -1. And, if both periods highs or lows
come out even, then no value, or 0 is assigned. The same process is performed for each subsequent time period, ultimately resulting in a number that can provide a good indication of day timeframe sentiment.
Figure 4-29, for instance, shows the Rotation Factor for a day in Treasury
Bonds. The cumulative rotation numbers across the time period tops totaled +3, as did the figures across the auction bottoms. The net total for
this day is +6, which exhibits consistent buyer attempts throughout the
day.
It is important to keep in mind, however, that the Rotation Factor
only answers one of the two "Big Questions"—-that is, which way the
market is trying to go. Before any conclusions can be drawn, you must
also determine if the market is "doing a good job" in its attempts to
auction in that direction. The answer to this second Big Question requires a much more sweeping analysis than that which can be provided
by a simple measure of the auction rotations. As we proceed through this
chapter, we will thoroughly detail the methods necessary for determining a market's directional success.
TPO Trading The TPO count is used to measure other timeframe activity within day timeframe structure. The theory behind TPO trading is
based on the fact that the other timeframe buyer and seller do not deal
directly with each other—they conduct trade through the local, or middleman. Any imbalance that develops between the longer-term participants is measurable in the TPO count (for a complete discussion of
the mechanics of the TPO count, refer to Chapter 3, Advanced Beginner).
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For example, a TPO count of 16/25 indicates buyers (25) are more active below the point of control (the fairest price in the day timeframe)
than sellers (16) trading above the point of control. If buyers continue to
be more aggressive, the point of control will gradually rise as value
migrates higher. If the point of control remains constant, price will auction back and forth between the buyer and seller in balanced, two-sided
trade.
In order for the TPO count to be effective, then, the market must be
in a two-timeframe, rotational mode. Again, two-timeframe conditions
occur when the other timeframe and day timeframe participants are
sharing control. In a one-timeframe market, generally one other timeframe participant is dominant, and each successive time period extends
the range with clear unidirectional conviction. The TPO count is not
needed on Trend days, for example, because it is clear who is in control.
Monitoring TPO imbalances is necessary (or effective) only when there is
a two-timeframe struggle brewing within the value area.
Occasionally, a market will start the day in a two-timeframe mode
but then develop into a one-timeframe market. The Profile structure
might appear to be rotational when, in fact, either the other timeframe
buyer or seller has subtly taken control. This is often a difficult situation
to identify quickly. Thus, the trader must learn to recognize the underlying conditions that often preclude such activity, and then monitor those
conditions closely. This sort of activity often occurs when price auctions
near or beyond the day's extremes and fails to follow through, causing
the market to reverse and auction aggressively (one-timeframe) in the
opposite direction. A running Profile starting with the time period of
potential structural change (a tail or break-out) is an effective means for
monitoring intraday transition.
Futures markets that are controlled almost exclusively by the other
timeframe, such as the municiple bond market and to a lesser extent the
foreign currency market, are best interpreted by using directional indicators other than the TPO count—tails, range extension, the Rotation
Factor, and so forth. Municiple bonds are traded mostly by longer term
money managers and off-floor professionals. Because the local does not
act as "middleman," the TPO count is not as effective in measuring other
timeframe control. Treasury Bonds, on the other hand, are traded by a
wide variety of participants and the local plays an integral part in the
trade facilitation process. The TPO count has also been found to be effective in Crude Oil, Gold, grains, and other markets that are not so heavily
influenced by off-floor professionals.
The most important aspect of TPO trading is the ability to visualize
potential change in the TPO count. A chess champion can visualize the
huge complexity of potential moves to be made, by both him and his
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opponent far in advance. Similarly, a successful day trader can visualize
how different market activity will affect the evolving TPO structure.
• Using Figures 4-31 through 4-35, let us closely examine a day in
Treasury Bonds, discussing the visualization process that occurs as the
trading session progresses.
9:30 AM Figure 4-30: TPOs favor the buyer, 13/16. The point of control is
actually between 99-00 and 98-31, for both prices have equal lengths and
the center of the range is between them. (There is also the option of
choosing either the upper or lower price, as long as you are consistent in
your choice.) Range extension to either side will change the point of control (the longest line closest to the center of the range). Any amount of
buying range extension will raise the point of control to 99-00. One tick
of selling range extension will lower it to 98-31. Additional selling range
extension will lower point of control.
10:00 AM Figure 4-31: At the end of D period, the point of control moves
up to 99-00, due to the single tick of buying range extension at 90-08
(the point of control is now actually in the middle of the range). The TPO
count is basically balanced, although slightly in favor of the seller. If
price should continue to auction at higher levels without trading down
to 99-00, the point of control in E period will rise, turning TPOs in favor
of the buyers once again. A second rise in the point of control would
indicate strong other timeframe buyer presence in the value area.
10:30 AM Figure 4-32: The point of control moves higher in E period.
TPOs are 16/24 in favor of the buyer. It may seem improbable that the
point of control can move so quickly and cause such a dramatic swing in
implications, but consider the character of the futures market. Inventory
can be liquidated in a minimal amount of time, creating control shifts
within a single time period.
After E period, it is possible to start visualizing potential auction
rotations. If F period trades at the point of control (99-03) and auctions
downward, it will add buying TPOs. A long position placed around 9829 would offer relatively good trade location, as long as price does not
spend too much time at the lower prices. If F and G periods trade at
lower prices without printing at 99-03, the point of control will move
lower, indicating stronger sellers. If this situation arises, longs should be
exited immediately, for the buyer is no longer in command.
Noon Figure 4-33: Auction rotations in F, G, and H periods raise the
point of control once again, reflecting a strong imbalance (17/38) and
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confirming the continuing buyer dominance. Longs placed below the
point of control in H period offer excellent trade location, for any additional activity below the point of control will add buying TPOs. The
market still needs to auction higher to find balance.
At this point, the point of control can only be lowered if I period
trades below 99-04 without trading at 99-05. Even so, the TPO count
would favor buyers. This is an excellent time to buy below value (the
point of control), for buyers are clearly in control of this market.
The large imbalance favoring the buyers is also evident in the day's
structure. Notice how the Profile appears incomplete to the upside. This
is part of the visualization process that develops through time and experience.
2:00 PM Figure 4-34: Once Treasury bonds traded at 99-05 in K period,
the point of control can not change. Any market break will simply add
buying TPOs. The odds favor a close on the highs due to the buying
imbalance. A break early in L period provides another buying opportunity.
The Close Our progression through a typical trading session has uncovered many of the processes that a day trader can employ to evaluate
day timeframe confidence and directional conviction. The last indication
of day timeframe market sentiment is embodied in the day's close. Given
no overnight news events, the activity that takes place during the close
sometimes has direct implications on the following session's open.
The fact that the market is closing literally forces participants that
still have business to conduct in the day timeframe to make a decision
and execute quickly. This type of forcing action generally flushes out two
types of activity that can send misleading signals to a trader who is unaware of their implications.
First, the close represents the last opportunity for other timeframe
participants with an opinion regarding market direction to establish new
positions. Second, the close is also the final opportunity for traders who
do not want to hold a trade overnight to balance their inventory. Obviously, the first type of activity has definite implications on the following day, while the latter has no lasting effect—but both can have a
significant impact on price movement.
Unfortunately, it is sometimes difficult to differentiate between the
two forms of closing activity. When available, monitoring movement
near the close for continuation into the evening session (as in Treasury
bonds) or in the cash and futures overnight markets (bonds, currencies,
and gold) will provide clues regarding which type of participant was
responsible for the closing activity. Otherwise, the next day's opening
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call, actual open, and early auction rotations reveal the strength of the
previous trading session's close.
Figure 4-35 contains three consecutive days in the sugar market that
illustrate the difference in continuation exhibited by the two forms of
closing activity. Late in the day on May 31, sugar auctioned substantially
below established value and closed on the low. However, the following
day opened above the weak close and immediately auctioned higher, indicating that the 31st's closing activity was probably caused by traders
balancing their positions. On this day, the buying continued through to
the end of the day, as Sugar closed significantly above the day's established value following an aggressive buying probe in J period. When
sugar then opened and accepted value above the previous day's close,
traders were alerted that the previous session's bullish close was probably the result of other timeframe directional conviction, not forcing action.
The reader should note that most days do not close with such extreme price movement as exhibited on May 31 and June 1. These days
were chosen because they clearly exhibited the difference in continuation
following the two forms of closing activity. Usually the close is more
subtle, occurring within the body of the Profile.
Day Timeframe Visualization and Pattern Recognition
Garri Kasparov, the world chess champion, once challenged 59 schoolchildren in separate games of chess—all at once. The competition took
place in a Bronx gymnasium with the chess tables set up in the form of a
large square. The expert strolled from board to board, selecting his
moves. He spent very little time making decisions, while each of his opponents had all the time they needed. While a child is no match for the
skilled Kasparov, taking on 59 children at once is a challenge to any one
individual, regardless of skill level. Yet, he handily beat 57 of the students, while two proud young chess players managed to take him to a
draw. How did Kasparov do it, particularly in such a short amount of
time? Playing—not to mention winning—57 matches simultaneously requires something more than skill alone.
Over the course of his chess career, Kasparov has probably experienced nearly every conceivable arrangement of the game's playing
pieces. There are a variety of known and recognizable chess strategies,
openings, and so on. Quite possibly, Kasparov was relying on pattern
recognition. He was speed-reading, or visualizing, the board, recognizing
patterns and making decisions based on past experience in similar
situations.
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Pattern recognition, or visualization, begins to materialize after extensive
practice and experience in practically any endeavor, whether it be playing chess, predicting the weather, diagnosing a patient, or trading.
As a trader gams more and more experience observing and trading
via the Market Profile, a number of recognizable patterns begin to surface in day timeframe structure. Virtually every structural feature of the
Profile involves pattern recognition in one form or another, and most
play a part in visualizing the developing day timeframe structure. For
example, an Open-Drive outside of the previous day's range is a pattern
that allows a trader to immediately visualize a Trend day scenario and
sustained price movement throughout the day. Conversely, an OpenAuction in value is usually a good indication of a more balanced, trading
type of day. This information enables a trader to visualize and estimate
the potential extremes of the day's range.
Successful trading is assisted by successful visualization. Monitoring
the opening call and open activity allows a trader to visualize the formation of the day's auction rotations. In turn, observing the evolving auctions makes it possible to visualize the type of day pattern that might
emerge. Recognizing certain day types and structural patterns allows the
visualization of trade facilitation and attempted market direction. All
these factors contribute to the ongoing visualization process and make
up the big picture for the day timeframe.
We will discuss here three distinctive patterns that have particularly
interesting implications for day timeframe visualization: short covering
rallies, long liquidation breaks, and ledges.
Short Covering Rallies Probably one of the market's most deceptive
and misunderstood behaviors is known as short covering. Almost all rallies start with "old business" covering their short positions, which at
least temporarily causes price to auction higher. If this rally is not accompanied by new buying, it is usually due solely to short covering.
Short covering often follows a day (or several days) of strong selling
activity. As the market moves farther out of balance, participants simply
become "too short." A sharp rally, generally occurring on or soon after
the open, follows as participants enter to cover (buy back) their short
positions. The need to cover may be a result of: (1) locals simply selling
so much that their inventories become too short; (2) profit-taking after an
extended down move; or (3) other timeframe participants with short
positions who are forced to exit. Like a kettle that whistles when too
much steam has built up inside, a short covering rally is a short-term
event that relieves temporary market pressure.
After recent strong selling activity, the swift rally that is characteristic of short covering can be easily misinterpreted as aggressive other
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timeframe buying. However, if the rally is truly caused by short covering
and not new buying interest, the market will often resume its prior
course once the selling imbalance has been neutralized. Unfortunately,
such quick and erratic activity can easily heighten market anxiety and
cause traders to exit a trade far too early, or even exit shorts and enter
longs. When identified and interpreted properly, however, short covering often generates a market-created opportunity to sell.
As illustrated in Figure 4-36, a short covering rally (that is not accompanied by new buying) resembles the letter "P," or a half-completed
Profile. Once the covering diminishes, price usually recedes and corrects
itself, in effect, filling in the lower half of the range. The trader's first
alert to potential short covering is the swift, excited rally that is immediately followed by the virtual disappearance of the buyer. The rally stalls
almost as quickly as it got started. Short covering is caused by old business,
not by new participants entering the market,
This is not to say that every time a market rallies quickly and stalls
it is the result of short covering. There are situations in which the market
will rally, stall, then rally further. For example, the top of a bracket can
offer sufficient resistance to slow price after a strong rally. Once price
"breaks through" the bracket, however, the rally will generally resume
with renewed force. Figure 4-37 demonstrates this scenario. How, then,
can a trader tell the two apart? Let us refer to Figure 4-38 for illustration.
In Figure 4-38, the "P" formation is evident through E period in the
S&P market. The individual half-hour auctions for B through E periods
are separated to show the short covering rotations, followed by the
Profile for the same period, the B-H Profile, and finally the completed
day. It is evident that after the initial rally in B period, each subsequent
half-hour auction did a worse job of facilitating trade with the buyer.
Nearly every successive higher auction was lower than the previous auction high. Compare this formation closely to the formation in Figure 437. In Figure 4-37, the buyer successfully managed to hold his ground,
while in Figure 4-38 the buyer gradually lost ground.
Figure 4-38 projects the waning buyer strength. Through E period,
the half-completed Profile is apparent, looking as if the market needs to
rotate downward and fill in the other half. By F period, the short covering begins to dissipate, sellers reenter and the day's structure begins to
close in on itself. In addition, Figure 4-38 illustrates a unique
phenomenon not uncommon during short covering rallies. After the initial rally, the S&P actually switched to a one-timeframe selling mode
beginning with the formation of the high during C period (each successive auction was equal to or lower than the previous half-hour auction
without extending beyond the high).
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Long liquidation Breaks The obverse side of a short covering rally is
the long liquidation break. The market forces that cause long liquidation
are the opposite of those that trigger short covering. Due to locals who
have gotten too long (bought too much) or a large number of other
timeframe participants exiting their long positions after an extended up
trend, the quick sale drives price swiftly downward. Again, this selling
break is primarily caused by the liquidation of old long positions, not
placing of new shorts. Thus, the liquidating break generally lasts as long
as there are longs to cover (unless the selling break brings new business
into the market and exhibits follow-through). Once the "sale" is over, the
market begins to correct itself. The resulting pattern often takes the shape
of a "b" (the inverse of the short covering "P" formation). Figure 4-39
illustrates a long liquidation break.
In the S&P market on this day, the market opened and drove sharply lower through C period. As is characteristic of a long liquidation
break, subsequent time periods showed a lack of seller continuation and
a transition to one-timeframe buying (in this case, through H period).
This particular example is not nearly as perfect as the short covering
scenario highlighted on the preceding pages—and few are. Notice that in
I period the S&P auctioned down near the C period lows once again.
However, the seller's inability to auction below the C period lows reaffirmed the lack of seller follow-through and the continued buyer
strength. Once the I period auction failed to attract new selling, buyers
reemerged and "completed" the Profile.
The liquidation occurring on this day is a vivid illustration of the
importance of visualization and pattern recognition. If you become too
involved in the minute-to minute price movements, it is easy to fall victim to tunnel vision. The ability to visualize promotes the objectivity
that is so necessary for developing a holistic view of the marketplace.
Summary of Short Covering and Long Liquidation A Profile beginning to
develop the shape of a "P" or a "b" does not infer that short covering or
long liquidation is occurring. Remember, all facts are surrounded by
other circumstances. Properly evaluating short covering or long liquidation patterns requires that the trader make careful note of the underlying
conditions prevailing in the market and the requisite characteristics that
signify each pattern. The main considerations are: (1) the recent market
direction compared to the formation, (2) the open—near the low for a
short covering and near the high for long liquidation, (3) the subsequent
non-continuation after a drive away from the open, and (4) gradually
retracing auctions as the short-term buying or selling releases temporary
pressure.
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Ledges A ledge is a rather strange, awkward looking formation. In effect ledges resemble one half of a normal distribution-—as though someone chopped the Profile in two, Ledges form when a market repeatedly
attracts the responsive participant in its attempt to auction in a given
direction. Consequently, the market stalls again and again at one particular price level.
The half-completed structure of a ledge tends to make a trader feel
uneasy. It seems as though something is bound to happen, that the day's
Profile is still evolving. Logically and intuitively, the market is almost
expected to spill over the ledg|e and fill in the day's Profile. However, if it
does not and the ledge holds, the market may move significantly in the
opposite direction. The key to successfully trading a ledge lies in
monitoring the activity around the ledge for clues regarding which
scenario will come to pass.
A ledge is often the result of short covering or long liquidation. The
market moves in one direction with short-term conviction, then suddenly
stalls. There is no follow-through to sustain the auction. The market auctions up, for example, and stalls once the participants who were long
have covered their positions. As time goes on, one of two events can
occur: (1) the lack of continuation to the upside gives sellers confidence
to auction price below the ledge; or (2) the ledge offers support, and
buyers enter to resume the up trend. A typical ledge pattern is shown in
Figure 4-40.
The dynamics governing a day timeframe ledge are similar to those
underlying a longer-term break-out from a balanced area. Several days of
overlapping value generally indicate that a market is in balance. A
"break-out" in either direction is a sign that the market is coming out of
balance, and trades should be placed in the direction of the break-out.
Similarly, a ledge is an indication of day timeframe balance, and a breakout from the ledge indicates a departure from balance. In terms of trading applications, if price auctions more than a few ticks "off the ledge,"
trades should be placed in the direction of the break-out (unless there are
extraneous market conditions present—news events, etc.). In Figure 4-40,
for example, shorts should have been placed at 4472 when gold dropped
off the 4476 ledge in H period.
Summary The three-day timeframe patterns introduced here are but a
small fraction of the total number of patterns that exist in the
marketplace. The different opening types each forms its own identifiable
pattern. As the market's half-hour auctions unfold, the patterns characteristic of the different day types begin to emerge. Almost every aspect of
the market's auction process can be categorized as some sort of pattern,
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although not all of them are as specific as short covering, long liquidation, and ledge formations.
The importance of pattern recognition is not in the act of labeling
different market structures. Rather, pattern recognition is essential for
understanding current market activity, and more important, learning to
visualize future market development.
The Liquidity Data Bank
Up to this point, we have discussed market structure solely in terms of
TPOs. TPOs are used to organize day timeframe structure according to
time, so that we can estimate the relative amount of business being transacted at each price. The Liquidity Data Bank (LDB), on the other hand,
provides the actual volume of trade occurring at each price and is available midday and a few hours after the market close. In addition, the LDB
discloses what type of trader participated in that volume: (1) local floor
traders, (2) commercial clearing members, (3) members filling orders for
other members or (4) members filling orders for the public or any other
type of customer. These two pieces of information, price/volume and
percentage participation, not only verify today's estimates, but also provide the concrete information so necessary to maintaining an objective
view of the present tense.
In this section, we will first study the anatomy of the Liquidity Data
Bank report, dissecting and examining its major parts. We then follow
with a discussion of the general uses of the LDB. Finally, we close with a
detailed analysis of commercial activity, one of the significant forces behind market behavior.
The Anatomy of the LDB Figure 4-41 illustrates the volume summary
report for Treasury bonds on April 28,1989. The encircled numbers correspond to the following definitions:
1. Trade Price—The prices traded throughout the day.
2. Volume—The individual volume occurring at each price.
3. % Vol—Individual price volume expressed as a percentage of
the day's volume.
4. % Cti— "Customer Trade Indicators." Each Cti number indicates the percentage of volume (at each price) that was conducted by the different categories of market participants. Cti1
represents local floor participation; Cti2 is commercial clearing
members; Cti3 represents members filling orders through other
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5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
members; and Cti4 signifies members filling orders for the
public or any other type of outside customer,
The Profile Structure—The Market Profile graphic for the day.
Value Area—The range in which 70 percent of the day's volume
occured.
Value Area Participation—The average percentage of participation within the value area for each Cti representative.
Range Participation—The average percentage of participation
within the day's entire range by each Cti representative.
Total Volume—The total transactional volume, or number of actual contracts bought and sold during the day's trading.
General Uses of the LDB The Market Profile graphic, by itself, organizes market-generated information into a format that is extremely
useful for determining which way the market is trying to go. Often this
determination is relatively straightforward—for instance, on days when
the market opens on an extreme and trades in one direction for the entire
day, or when an obvious trend is underway. On many other occasions,
however, the market will auction both above and below the open, offering few clear signs of directional conviction. In terms of trade facilitation
and attempted direction, these days are much more difficult to evaluate.
The LDB often provides valuable information on days that do not
offer signs of clear conviction. In the following, we will examine a
variety of LDB facts and figures that, when evaluated together, can help
reveal the underlying control (or lack of control) that exists in the
market. All derived or enhanced through the LDB report, these measures
are listed below in the order that they are discussed:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Total Volume
The Value Area
Dispersion of Volume
Cti Figures
Acceptance of Value Outside the Value Area
High-Volume Concentrations
Top-5 versus Bottom-5 Tick Analysis
Trend Tests
1. Total Volume Two LDB measurements should not only be monitored
daily, but also kept on a running record. They are volume and the value
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area. Volume is the truest and most reliable indicator of the market's
ability to facilitate trade. Even in a trending market, if volume is decreasing, then the likelihood that the trend will continue much longer is in
* question. A market that is not facilitating trade will not survive for long.
All markets seek to trade at price levels that maximize volume. If a
market is not facilitating trade at a given price level, it will move to a
new level that will better facilitate trade. Thus, if price movement is relatively static and volume continues to decline, the chances are great that
the market will break-out of that region in search of new activity.
Evaluating the daily progression of total contract volume is one way to
begin to detect early signs of nonfacilitation and potential change. The
implications of volume levels in relation to day-to-day structure play a
pivotal role in longer-term market analysis. This is covered in detail in
Section Two of this chapter, Long-Term Trading.
2, The Value Area The value area, probably the most widely used piece
of information contained in the LDB report, represents the area where 70
percent of the day's trade occured. The LDB calculates the value area
using volume as opposed to TPOs. (For a complete discussion of value
area calculation, see Appendix 1.)
In the day timeframe, the value area is an important reference point
by which to compare developing market activity. As discussed earlier,
the opening's relationship to the previous day's value area is an early
indication of the level of market balance. In addition, the migration of
the value area and its accompanying width provide basic clues regarding
overall market direction and the underlying strength of the other
timeframe buyer or seller. Along with volume, these concepts will be
developed further in Section Two.
3. Dispersion of Volume Dispersion of volume analysis is conducted to
arrive at an accurate depiction of whether the other timeframe buyer or
seller is exerting the greatest influence in the value area. In other words,
who is winning the battle for value area control and to what extent. Dispersion of volume measures the distribution of volume within the value
area occurring above and below the high-volume price. We illustrate
below how to calculate the dispersion of volume for April 28,1989.
Methodology Using Figure 4-41 as reference, the following steps describe
how to calculate dispersion of volume within the value area:
1. Find the high-volume price (within the value area): 90-06.
2. Sum all of the "% Vol" figures above the high-volume price
(within the value area).
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3. Do the same for the volumes below the high-volume price.
4. Divide the high volume price and add it to both sides.
Figure 4-41 shows that 34 percent of the volume took place above
the high-volume price (90-06), while 38.5 percent occured below it. This
ratio indicates that the bond market was relatively balanced between
buyers and sellers within the value area, with the buyer showing slightly
greater strength. When one side of the value area contains substantially
higher volume, the imbalance usually carries over into the following day.
Dispersion of volume in favor of the other timeframe buyer (when
the greatest volume occurs below the high-volume price) indicates that
participants are more willing to buy and hold below value than sell and
hold above value. Conversely, dispersion of volume in favor of sellers
suggests that a greater number of sellers are willing sell and stay short.
Readers wishing to refresh their minds on value area dynamics should
refer back to 'The TPO Count," in Chapter 3.
Like the TPO count, dispersion of volume analysis is useful only for
days exhibiting two-timeframe, rotational trade and relative balance, A
Trend day, on the other hand, exhibits clear other timeframe control. The
overpowering dynamics of Trend situations not only negate the need for
a subtle indicator such as dispersion of volume, but also distort the dispersion calculation, making it misleading.
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4. Cti Figures Understanding which participants are in control of the
market and to what extent they are influencing price is one of the keys to
successful trading. Cti figures help identify the who, what and where of
other timeframe activity. In Treasury bonds, for instance, Cti1 (locals)
usually averages around 55 to 60 percent. An unusually high Ctil indicates that the local is primarily in control. Such days are often termed a
'locals' market." Significant movement in price would be unlikely because of the limited influence of the other timeframe.
On the other hand, when the Ctil figure is unusually low and/or
the Cti2, Cti3, or Cti4 percentages are unusually high, outside participants are showing greater interest. Consequently, the potential for a
significant movement in price is greater. Using Cti codes to identify other
timeframe activity is illustrated in the following discussion and later in
the section entitled "Evaluating Commercial Activity."
5. Acceptance of Value Outside the Value Area Evaluating the acceptance
(or rejection) of value outside the value area can shed important light on
the direction of trade facilitation. For example, occasionally a market will
break-out of a narrow trading range late in the day. If the break-out
comes too late, the market may not have enough time to form value at
new levels or generate sufficient volume to significantly change the calculation of the value area. Figure 4-42 shows how a "value inside versus
value outside" comparison can yield information not necessarily identifiable from the bare Profile graphic.
Prior to L period on May 22, the only evidence of the buyer was a
six tick initiative buying tail. Otherwise, the Profile structure showed unusually narrow value build-up and strong selling TPOs (49/33 at the end
of K period). However, a rally in L period sparked the first range extension of the day and closed the bond market on its highs. Despite the
strong close, the validity of the late rally was suspect due to the narrow
value, selling TPOs and the fact that the range extension occured too late
in the day to be confirmed by value (double TPO prints).
The LDB report painted a different picture. As we noted earlier, the
best indication of trade facilitation is volume. Upon examining the
volumes around the L period range extension on May 22, the "% of
total" figures occurring in the 89-07 to 89-17 range do not show particularly large volumes. Thus, at first glance the L period rally did not
appear too well accepted. One must keep in mind, however, that the L
period move occured practically on the close. In addition, note the unusually high Cti2 percentages (commercial activity) at the upper extreme
of the range. Had this activity been selling, Treasury bonds would not
have closed on the highs. Thus, the significantly larger Cti2 figures were
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Chapter 4
clearly caused by buying. This market needed to auction higher to
facilitate trade.
Traders who had access to the volume information and interpreted
it correctly should have prepared themselves to take advantage of potential opportunities to buy, perhaps in the London market or on the open
of the next day. Treasury bonds opened one full point higher during the
following trading session and traded two points higher by the end of the
day.
6. High Volume Concentrations High-volume concentrations identify potential areas of acceptance by the marketplace. If price is accepted at a
particular level, then the market will probably spend time trading there.
Thus, past high-volume areas should be viewed as potential support/resistance points and may offer a period of limited risk for trade
entry and exit. Because high- and low-volume areas have such broad applications to trading, we save their discussion for a later section (see
"High- and Low-Volume Areas," following "The Liquidity Data Bank").
7. Top Five versus Bottom Five Another LDB barometer useful for gauging the market's directional inclinations is to add the five "% of Total"
volumes occurring at the top of the range and compare them to the sum
of the five "% of Total" volumes at the bottom of the range. The extreme
exhibiting the greater total volume generally indicates that the market
was doing a better job of facilitating trade in that direction. In Figure
4-43, volume in the top five ticks far outweighed volume in the bottom
five ticks, suggesting that the market was "doing a better job" of auctioning higher. Treasury bonds opened higher on the following day, confirming this opinion.
The decision to use five ticks in the calculation rather than three or
seven is entirely subjective. As the day's range fluctuates, this number
should be adjusted accordingly (the wider the range, the greater the
number of ticks included in the count).
8. Trend Tests There are several LDB tests that can be employed to
evaluate a market's potential to trend. Two of these, "Average High
Volume" and "Opening-Range Volume" are described below and illustrated in Figure 4-44.
Average High Volume The first trend test is to simply identify the five
highest "% of Total" volume figures, add them together and then calculate their average. The larger the average volume figure, the lower the
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Chapter 4
probability that a trend is underway. In Figure 4-44, the five highest
volumes are denoted by asterisks (*).
Opening Range Volume An alternative is to sum the "% of Total" volumes
occurring in the opening range. The higher the resulting figure, the less
likely the potential for a trend.
Both of these tests are of little value unless a running record of each
is maintained. It is imperative that you develop an understanding for
what is considered an average "opening-range volume" or "high volume
average." Without some benchmark by which to evaluate these figures,
they can be misleading.
Summary The preceding discussion highlights just a few key areas of
the Liquidity Data Bank, as well as a sampling of the methods by which
to approach and use the wealth of information provided by this report.
There are literally countless ways by which to use the LDB. In the section
that follows, we take a detailed look at how to evaluate and use the Cti2
(commercial) portion of the report. For information on additional
analyses of the LDB, readers should consult the CBOT Market Profile
Manual 2. It is referenced in Appendix 2.
Evaluating Commercial Activity Of all the market's participants, the
commercial groups provide perhaps the best indication of the day
timeframe importance of specific price regions. This is largely because
commercial clearing members use the marketplace for business purposes
and not* for speculation (although some do speculate, as we shall see
later). Hence, they generally respond to price fluctuations on the basis of
what they perceive to be developing value.
Because commercial activity is isolated in the CBOT Liquidity Data
Bank report, commercial responses to changes in price can be observed
and evaluated. An understanding of what business the commercial is in,
and therefore, how they are likely to respond to changes in price, helps
the trader identify significant day and longer timeframe price levels. In
this discussion, we will closely examine the commercial participant and
the methods of measuring commercial activity.
A Definition A "commercial clearing member" is another timeframe
participant with commercial interests in the futures markets. Examples
include grain merchants, livestock producers, savings and loans, and so
forth. Dealing in futures is often part of their everyday business. Therefore, commercials tend to do some futures business during every trading
session in order to fulfill their inventory requirements. Of all market par-
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ticipants, the commercial clearing members react to price fluctuations in
the "truest" sense.
Occasionally, commercial participants will enter trades beyond their
basic inventory needs if they perceive that an opportunity exists to buy
below value or sell above value. And, due to the substantial size of most
commercials, their activity can have a large effect on price movement
and market direction. Monitoring commercial activity through the LDB
often reveals other timeframe conviction and imbalance before the
market reacts to evolving conditions.
Commercial Logic The significance of commercial activity lies not so
much in identifying price levels at which the commercial participant is
active, but rather in recognizing how the commercial participant is behaving. In other words, are the commercials behaving as expected or are
their responses unexpected? Or are they interested at all? Recognizing and
identifying these types of responses is the key to using commercial understanding effectively.
Expected Response Because commercials do at least some business every
day, one would logically expect them to respond to price away from
value. In other words, the expected commercial activity is to enter
responsively near the day's extremes. As we mentioned before, the commercial participants may even increase their business beyond inventory
requirements if price moves substantially away from established value.
Commercial entry near the day's extremes often serves to "buffer"
day timeframe price movement, providing support to falling prices and
resistance to rising prices. Examine the LDB report shown in Figure 4-45.
Briefly, the percentage of total volume represented by commercial activity appears in the column labeled "Cti2%." These figures, shown for
each price, clearly identify areas of significant commercial participation.
Note the higher percentages of commercial activity occurring on the extremes, relative to those occurring in the value area. Although not
dramatically above average (for Treasury bonds, 12-14 percent was a
good "average" at the time of this example), the 16.3 Cti2% figure on the
89-23 high indicates potential aggressive commercial selling. Conversely,
the Cti2% readings of 17.7, 18.9, and 17.9 at 88-16, 88-21, and 88-23 on
the lower extreme reflect the entry of aggressive commercial buyers.
Note also from Figure 4-45 that trade returned to the center of the
developing value, illustrating the day timeframe, commercial buffering
effect. Such expected activity is most often seen during more balanced,
trading conditions, as typified by Neutral, Normal and Normal Variation
days.
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Unexpected Response A significant change in market conditions may elicit
an unexpected response from the commercial participant For instance,
lower prices may actually attract new commercial selling, rather than opposing buying. The unexpected response may mean that the
commercial's perception of value has changed.
Consider the plight of the grocer who hears news of a potential
bumper coffee crop in Brazil. To quickly liquidate his now overvalued
inventory, he marks down price and runs a "coffee extravaganza." However, to the average consumer, value is probably still associated with the
previous price of coffee. Selling below value is unexpected activity to the
shopper,
When the commercial participant begins to act out of his norm (unexpectedly), the trader is alerted that conditions may have changed. Figure 4-46 provides an example of an unexpected commercial response
occurring in the Treasury bond market. On December 15, trade during A
through C periods was basically two-timeframe, given the overlapping
half-hour auctions and that bonds had easily traded back and forth
through the open. However, a price probe up in D period, which would
normally be expected to attract responsive sellers, elicited an unexpected
response—more buying. Note the 26.6 Cti2% reading at 84-22. Unexpected buying activity continued throughout the entire day and into the
close. The Cti2% readings in Figure 4-46 reveal higher-than-normal commercial participation appearing sporadically throughout the day's range
(84-22, 85-00 and 85-22). In fact, commercial presence increased nearly
every time the range was extended.
Note also the high levels of commercial activity taking place at or
near the close. Since aggressive commercial selling would probably have
returned price lower, this activity was most likely buying. Concentrated
commercial buying on the close suggests that the market may still need
to trade higher before the commercial is willing to sell.
When commercial groups act unexpectedly, they are usually
speculating on price movement. The commercial participants are no
longer acting as a buffer in the day timeframe but are instead adding
fuel to longer term price movement.
No Response Occasionally, price probes away from value generate no
commercial response whatsoever. And, in rare instances, the commercial
may show little or no interest in any price offered on a given day. These
two scenarios have different implications for market activity.
First, if the LDB shows that the commercial did not respond to price
probes near the extremes, then it is likely that price did not auction far
enough on that day to attract the commercial participant. For instance, a
lack of commercial activity on the lower extreme may indicate an unwill-
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Chapter 4
ingness to buy. The market will probably have to auction lower to
facilitate trade with the commercial buyer. Conversely, lack of Cti2 activity on the upper extreme suggests that higher prices are needed to
attract commercial selling.
Second, on rare occasions the total Cti2% is significantly below
average. That is, prices offered throughout the day spark little or no
commercial interest. When such a no-response day develops, there is a
good probability that the market will seek new price levels. Remember,
the market's primary purpose is to facilitate trade—with all participants. If
current prices are not bringing in commercial activity, then the market
will most likely auction higher or lower in search of balanced trade.
Figure 4-47 provides a good example of a no-response day in
Treasury bonds. The average, overall commercial activity (11.7 percent,
circled in the lower right hand corner of Figure 4-47) occurring on October 1, 1987 was significantly lower than the average of the prior ten
days (14.6 percent). The low Cti% figure suggests that prices offered on
that day generated little commercial interest. Hence, the market had to
probe to new price levels to generate activity (at least with the commercial).
On the following day, Treasury bonds built extremely wide, overlapping value amid a Multiple Distribution Buying Trend day. October 1
and 2 are shown together later in Figure 4-50.
Identifying the Significance of Price Performing four relatively simple
calculations each day helps a trader maintain an ongoing, objective assessment of overall commercial presence. The calculations stem from the
basic need to be aware of how the commercial is behaving above value,
within value and below value. The daily measurements consist of four
parts:
1.
2.
3.
4.
The average daily Cti2%.
Average Cti2% above the value area.
Average Cti2% within the value area.
Average Cti2% below the value area.
Through an ongoing assessment of commercial participation on
either side of value, traders can identify which price levels are successfully attracting the commercial participant and which are not. The LDB
report, shown in Figure 4-48, provides examples of how the four Cti2%
calculations are performed.
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1. Average Daily Cti2% (Total) The average Cti2% for the entire day (16.2%)
is provided by the LDB, shown across from the section of the LDB report
entitled "Volume for T-Bond (CBOT) Day" (see Point 1 in Figure 4-48).
This figure represents the percentage of the day's entire volume attributed to commercial clearing members.
2. Average Cti2% above the Value Area Measuring the average Cti2% above
value is a somewhat detailed process. For each price above value, multiply the Cti2% by the total volume traded at that price. The resulting figure is the number of contracts attributable to commercial activity at that
price. Examine Point 2 in Figure 4-48 for illustration. At 89-23, volume
totaled 28,930 contracts. The Cti2% for 89-23 is 12.6%, which equates to
3,645 contracts attributed to the commercials. This process is repeated for
each price above value. Finally, total Cti2 volume above value is divided
by total volume above value to arrive at the average Cti2% above value.
The entire process is detailed on the following page.
3. Average Cti2% Within the Value Area This figure is also provided by the
LDB report. See Point 3 in Figure 4-48.
4. Average Cti2% Below the Value Area The average Cti2% below the value
area is derived in the same manner as the average Cti2% above value
discussed in number 2 above.
The Cti2% total, above, within, and below value calculations help to
isolate areas of commercial participation that differ significantly from the
norm. When an imbalance develops, the trader is alerted to the fact that
the market may have to move in search of commercial activity. For il-
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lustration, let us briefly consider an example in the Treasury bond
market. Figure 4-49 shows that on April 25, the LDB report for bonds
exhibited a clear commercial imbalance. The Cti2% below value was
18.7%, the Cti2% within value averaged 16.0%, while the Cti2% above
value measured 12.9%. Commercial sellers were simply not as active on
the day's highs, indicating that the bond market still needed to go higher
to cut off the commercial buying and attract commercial selling. On the
following day, Treasury bonds auctioned considerably higher and eventuaUy attracted the commercial sellers.
We stress once again the importance of maintaining a continuous
record of these figures. Knowing the commercial percentage for an isolated day reveals little about the underlying make-up of the market. Obviously, if we are to make judgments, we need some "ball-park" figure
to use for comparison. Two possibilities are an average for the current
auction (swing or longer term), or a moving average that corresponds to
your trading timeframe.
Being able to recognize the subtle changes in commercial behavior
helps traders identify when market conditions may be changing—before
structure has provided confirmation, and, more important, before the opportunity is out of reach.
Cti2% in Action To demonstrate the benefits of Cti2% analysis, a summary of 10 days of market activity is provided in the following paragraphs. From a longer-term perspective, commercial activity proves most
useful when it differs greatly from the norm. We stress, however, that
while commercial activity is an important influence and merits monitoring, it is just one of many pieces of information. December Treasury
Bond activity over September 28 through October 9, 1987 period
provides reference for the following discussion (see Figure 4-50),
September 28 Commercial behavior on September 28 is significant in two
areas: aggressive selling on the upper extreme and a general lack of commercial buying on the lower. The heavy commercial selling (30.2% at 8228) on the high suggests that the commercials perceived price to be
significantly above value at these levels. Reduced response on the lower
extreme, however, indicates price did not move low enough in the day
timeframe to incite aggressive commercial buying. The market may need
to auction lower to spark commercial buying interest.
September 29 Sellers managed to establish lower value on this day. The
Cti2% readings indicate continued commercial selling, as illustrated by
the unusually high Cti2% figures at 82-09 (29.4%) and, to a lesser extent,
on the day's close. This market still needs to move lower.
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Chapter 4
September 30 At first glance, the high percentage commercial participation (20.7%) at 81-23, coupled with a close on the high leads one to
believe that commercials were buying on the close. However, if commercials were there in strength, they were by no means convincing. Buyers
managed just one tick of buying range extension and never challenged
the previous day's value area.
Except for the close on the upper extreme, commercial activity on
this day appears to be of the "expected" type, that is, responding in opposition as price probes away from value. Note the above average participation near the extremes.
October 1 At 11.8%, overall commercial activity was well below average
on this day. The commercial participant showed virtually no interest in
all areas of the Profile. This suggests that the market needs to auction
elsewhere to better facilitate trade with the commercial groups. October 2
shows it did.
October 2 This day developed Buying Trend day structure. Aggressive
buying can be seen at the day's low (18.6%), 81-14 (22.2%), 81-17
(28.9%), 81-30 (2.7%) and at 82-03 (19.1%). The strong close and relatively high commercial participation on the day's high suggest that this final
activity was likely buying. After such a dramatic move to the upside,
however, the market may need to come into balance before seeking to
auction higher.
October 5 October 5 is a prime illustration of a late "unexpected"
response. Note the high Cti2% occurring at 81-24 (25.5%). The fact that
Treasury bonds closed below 81-24 suggests that this activity is selling.
Structural evidence of other timeframe activity (the B period selling tail
and ensuing selling range extension) adds support to the conclusion that
the Bond market should continue to auction lower.
October 6 Unusually low overall commercial participation (12.0%) relative to the average (14.6%) suggests that present levels are not facilitating
trade with the commercials. Price will likely probe away from current
levels in search of trade.
October 7 This day developed into a Buying Trend day that resulted in
an Auction Failure late in the day. An attempt to auction above the October 5 highs and test the upper extreme of the 2nd did not attract new.
buying. The responsive seller entered (as did commercials at 82-14) and
quickly retraced the range.
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October 8 The commercials were heavy sellers on the day's high (29.6%).
Above average Cti2% in the lower distribution and a close near the low
indicates that commercial activity in this region was predominantly selling. Moreover, the lack of aggressive commercial entry on the lows suggests that this market did not move low enough to encourage
commercial buying.
October 9 Lower value developed on October 9. The above average commercial participation in the lower half of the range, combined with a
close on the low indicates that aggressive commercial selling persisted
through the day's end. Treasury bonds traded a full point lower on the
following day.
LDB Summary If we were to offer just two pieces of advice for those
using the Liquidity Data Bank information, they would be:
1.
2.
Do not base your evaluation on one calculation or aspect of the
LDB. Look at all of the information before formulating
decisions (avoid tunnel vision).
The LDB requires some analytical effort to read and understand it. Do not be intimidated by the wealth of numbers. The
power of the LDB is not so much in the numbers themselves
but in your ability to discern in these numbers the interplay of
factors affecting market behavior and interpret them logically,
not analytically.
High- and Low-Volume Areas
To conclude our discussion of Day Timeframe Trading, we will examine
high- and low-volume areas and their use in identifying changes in
market sentiment. Market change is accompanied by both risk and opportunity. The key to securing optimal trade location is the ability to
identify market change as it is developing, before the change is confirmed by structure. By monitoring significant volume-generated reference points, a trader can anticipate market behavior and maximize trade
location in the early stages of change.
High-Volume Areas High-volume concentrations develop when the
market spends a relatively large amount of time trading within a narrow
range of prices. Both the buyer and seller are active, forming a short-term
balance region in which price slows to accommodate two-sided trade. In
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other words, the market perceives that area to be fair, and volume builds
over a period of time.
In the shorter timeframes, high-volume areas represent the market's
most recent perception of value and, therefore, have a tendency to attract
price. Naturally, all markets eventually undergo change and leave the
high-volume area in search of new value. Should the market subsequently return to those price levels, the high volume region should
once again attract (slow) price.
We caution that the marker's memory is primarily short term. The
longer price remains away from a specific region of acceptance, the less
significance the high volume will have on the market as it reenters that
region. However, with regard to day and swing traders, an area of previously established high volume should slow price movement long
enough to provide sufficient time to enter or exit a trade.
For example, suppose the swing auction in Treasury bonds is up,
but the market probes downward into an area of previous high volume.
The slowing of price should provide time to enter a responsive long and
then monitor it for the reemergence of the buyer. Similarly, when seeking
to exit an existing long, a trader can be relatively sure that when a
market moves up into a high-volume area, price will slow enough to
allow time to liquidate the long position.
Identifying High-Volume Levels Depending on the data vendor, day
timeframe traders have three potential sources for high-volume price information:
1. The Liquidity Data Bank (LDB) Shown in Figure 4-51, the LDB displays individual price volume information (as discussed earlier). With respect to
isolating areas of high volume, the most significant figure is found in the
"%Vol" column. These figures represent the percentage of total volume
occurring at each price traded during the day. In Figure 4-51, the area
marked near the center of the range -89-05 through 89-08—represents
the four prices showing the greatest volume during trade on the 25th. In
other words, 9.7 percent of the day's trade took place at 89-08, while 10.4
percent occured at 89-07, and so forth. These four prices add up to 40.3
percent of the day's trade and represent an area where the following
trading session's auction rotations should slow, allowing time to position
or exit a trade (if an opportunity is presented at all).
2. The Market Profile Graphic For those markets without the benefit of LDB
information, the Market Profile graphic provides solid structural clues
regarding the day's high-volume levels. In the absence of real volume
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Chapter 4
figures, the second best measure of high-volume concentrations are the
high TPO prices surrounding the point of control. The thick, middle portion of the Profile usually closely parallels the LDB high-volume prices.
Price should slow as it enters the "fat" region of the previous trading
session's Profile.
3. Tick Volume Tick volume is available through several quote services,
some of which now provide a tick-volume graphic representing the relative "tick" volume for each price traded as the day's structure evolves.
Readers should note that tick volume measures the number of trades that
take place, it does not reflect the actual contract volume in each trade.
Thus, one tick may equal two contracts or 2,000 contracts—quite a difference from a trading logic standpoint. Moreover, on low volume days
(like holidays) tick volume can register quite high because of heavy local
activity, while in reality, actual volume is low. Still, high tick-volume
prices generally coincide closely with the high TPO prices and, therefore,
may be a useful estimate of the high volume prices (Figure 4-52). When
using tick volume, traders simply need to be more aware of the underlying liquidity of the market in which they are trading.
High-Volume Examples
Example 1: Up Auction; Probe Down Into High-Volume Area During late October,
Treasury bonds were in the midst of a longer-term buying auction. As is
demonstrated by Figure 4-53, October 25 recorded high-volume prices in
the 89-05 to 89-08 region. After a higher opening on the 26th, responsive
sellers attempted to auction price lower during A and B periods. The
selling auctions eventually slowed near the area of the highest volume
concentrations of the previous day. Buyers then entered the market and
returned price above the 25th's value area.
Given that the longer-term direction was up and that the bond
market had opened higher, traders looking for a good location to place a
long could expect price to slow if it auctioned down near the highvolume area of the the 25th. If the buying auction was exceptionally
strong, however, price would not have returned to the high-volume area
at all. It is important to stress that traders should not expect the market
to stop precisely at the high-volume levels—remember, high volume attracts price, but it is not a rigid floor or ceiling. It is logical for the market
to trade around a high-volume area. Thus, the market could just as easily
find support or resistance before the high-volume region as beyond it
The key to taking advantage of high volume is: (1) do not try to be perfect—first execute the trade; and then (2) place your confidence in the
slowing properties of volume. If price had subsequently been accepted
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below the high-volume area, traders would have been alerted that
market perceptions of value had changed. Long positions should have
been exited immediately.
While October 26 did not evolve into a big day, it did show general
continuation to the upside through higher value placement. Moreover,
when the Treasury bond market attempted to auction lower in C period,
price slowed and found support at the high-volume levels. Day traders
could observe the downward testing to 89-10, place longs against that
level, and rely on the slowing properties of volume should price probe
lower.
Example 2: Down Auction; Probe Up into High-Volume Area Figure 4-54 shows
Treasury bonds at the start of a potential short-term down auction. September 14 demonstrates a Normal Variation selling day, characterized by
a strong responsive selling tail and late selling range extension in K
period, resulting in a close in the lower half of the range. The unusually
large selling tail alerted traders to potential buying excess on the high.
Figure 4-54 shows the Profiles for September 14 and 15, along with the
%Vol figures for both. The 14th's high-volume prices spanned from
roughly 88-20 to 88-25, accounting for 53.7 percent of the day's volume.
On September 15, bonds opened and auctioned within the area of the
14th's high-volume concentrations. The A, B, and C period rotations
within this high-volume region demonstrated the "time" offered by high
volume—time to enter or exit a trade. Traders may have chosen to use
this particular opportunity in one of two ways, depending on their level
of confidence in the start of the down auction:
1. No trade, until more information was furnished by the market.
The morning's auction rotations within the previous day's
high-volume areas indicated balance. Traders may have elected
to enter shorts on a break-out of this balance, which occurred
in H period.
2. Those with more faith in the strength of seller conviction may
have used the time offered early in the morning to enter shorts
with good trade location. When C period buying probe beyond
the initial balance (A and B periods in Treasury bonds) met
with rejection just above the high-volume area (a form of auction failure), traders recognizing the continued strength of the
seller could have confidently entered short trades (or exited
longs). On the other hand, had price auctioned higher, above
88-26 and into the low volume price levels, traders would have
been alerted that conditions had changed. September 15 eventually developed Double Distribution Selling Trend structure,
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generating overlapping to lower values in the direction of the
short-term auction.
Low-Volume Areas Low volume typically represents other timeframe
directional conviction. Therefore, it is more likely to see low-volume
areas occurring in unbalanced, trending markets. Low-volume prices are
caused by the same forces that create excess and usually exhibit the same
characteristics: gaps, single TPO prints, and tails (short and long term).
When the rejection demonstrated by a low-volume area develops,
short-term strategy is to place trades using the area of price rejection for
support or resistance. The low-volume area, like excess, should hold
against future auction rotations. For example, single TPO prints separating a Double Distribution Selling Trend day indicate swift rejection of
the initial distribution in search of a new, lower-value area. Shorts placed
just below the single-print low-volume area should offer good day
timeframe trade location. However, if price auctions back up through the
single prints, then market sentiment has changed and shorts should be
exited. When price auctions through an area of previous low volume, the
other timeframe conviction that initially influenced price has changed.
Traders should heed the market's warning and exit any opposing trades.
Imagine a low-volume area as a balloon. The surface of the balloon
offers resistance to the probing of the tip of a pencil. Once the pencil
pierces the balloon, however, there is nothing to stop its motion in the
direction of the initial probe. If a price probe "penetrates" the extreme of
a low volume region, then the subsequent price movement is often swift
through the remainder of the low-volume area. However, like the balloon, the low-volume area "gives" before it breaks. Price must often
trade substantially through the low-volume area before it no longer offers support or resistance.
Identifying Low-Volume Areas The means to identify low-volume areas
are similar to those previously covered in the high-volume discussion.
The most significant measure is again found in the "%Vol" column of the
LDB, followed by structural indicators, such as tails and single TPO
prints, and tick volume. As an example of using real volume levels, let
us examine the September 15 LDB, shown in Figure 4-55.
Two obvious low-volume price areas that came into play on this
day span from 88-25 to 88-26, and from 88-12 to 88-16. The low volume
at the upper extreme of the day's range represents rejection of the 88-26
high. The lower volumes in the center of the range suggest that aggressive other timeframe sellers drove price lower with conviction. These five
prices add up to only 12.6 percent of the day's trade and represent a
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region where future auction rotations will probably be rejected rather
than slowed. This rejection can assume one of two forms: (1) a dramatic
reversal if the low volume area holds, visually represented by a tail, or
(2) swift continuation back through the low-volume area, commonly r e p
resented by single TPO prints.
Low-Volume Examples
Example 1: Low Volume as Resistance At the time of this example, Treasury
bonds had formed short term buying excess at 89-09 on September 14
(circled in Figure 4-56) and were starting a down auction. September 15
developed a late-forming Double Distribution Selling Trend day (Figure
4-57), confirming the buying excess. Figure 4-57 displays the Profiles for
the 15th and 16th, and their accompanying price/volume figures. Again,
the low-volume area from 88-12 to 88-16 on the 15th represents swift
continuation and other timeframe seller conviction. This territory should
offer resistance during subsequent buying attempts, at least over the
short term.
Two scenarios may confront a trader looking to sell on the 16th.
First, assuming an unchanged to lower opening, good trade location
would be gained just below the 88-12 to 88-16 low-volume region. Ideally, price would test higher and be rejected, providing an opportunity to
place shorts near the 16th's highs. If the market is extremely weak, however, price may never auction that high. This brings us to the second
scenario, again assuming an unchanged to lower open. If Bonds show
early selling via an Open-Drive type of opening, there will be no "ideal"
opportunity for short placement. In such a high conviction situation, it is
best to position shorts early and then monitor subsequent activity for
continuation. Here, the low-volume area acts as a form of excess, giving
credence to the developing down auction.
As Figure 4-57 illustrates, on September 16 bonds gapped open
below the 15th's lows, indicating potential seller continuation. The lower
opening proved to be too low, however, and responsive buyers entered
the market to take advantage of price perceived to be below value. Subsequent time periods showed buyers struggling to auction price higher.
Eventually, the buying attempts met with rejection at the 88-12 level—
the bottom of the low volume area separating the two distributions from
September 15. The failure to auction back into the low-volume region
offered traders an excellent opportunity to place short positions.
Ultimately, day timeframe resistance was found just below the lowvolume area and the single print from the previous day's selling Trend
structure. As with anticipating price slowing near high-volume areas, it
is equally important that traders avoid trying to achieve "perfect" trade
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location near the region of low volume. The keys to taking advantage of
low-volume areas are: (1) keep accurate notes of where they are; (2)
know in which direction you expect to see rejection and monitor for
signs of that rejection; (3) place orders ahead of time at price levels representing good trade location to insure execution; and (4) abandon lowvolume strategies if price builds acceptance beyond previous
low-volume regions (a price probe pierces the "balloon").
Despite the obvious structural buying preference throughout the
day's activity, September 16 resulted in lower values. This fact along
with the buyer's inability to auction price beyond the low-volume area
from the 15th, suggested that other timeframe control remained in the
hands of the seller.
Example 2: High and Low Volume Used Together Activity on the following day,
September 19, shows an integration of the logical workings of both highand low-volume areas. In Figure 4-58, the Treasury bond market opened
at 88-09 and found early rejection just below the 88-11 and 88-12 lowvolume prices that formed the highs of September 16. Sellers easily auctioned through the 88-03 level, despite its low-volume percentage (0.8%),
increasing confidence in short trades. The fact that price auctioned
through 88-03 on the 19th confirmed that this area that had supported
the previous afternoon's buying auctions was no longer valid.
From a Profile standpoint, note that activity on September 19
generated an initiative selling tail directly below the low-volume region
of the 16th. In addition, the high-volume levels of the 16th (around 88-06
and 88-07) slowed price enough to allow traders time to place shorts
with initiative selling activity.
Summary The following is a brief listing of the salient concepts involved in understanding high- and low-volume areas:
1. Both high- and low-volume regions may be present on the
same day if a transition takes place—if a market evolves from a
balanced, two-timeframe market to one-timeframe trade, or
vice versa.
2. Low volume represents rejection, but if the market should
return to auction beyond the low-volume area and build value,
then directional conviction has changed, and the region is no
longer a valid reference point.
3. Both high- and l o w - v o l e areas represent support or resis-"
tance, but in vastly different ways.
4 Traders can expect to be able to place or exit trades within
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high-volume areas in anticipation of their slowing affect on
price. Low volume, on the other hand, represents swift rejection. Therefore, trades should be placed or exited in front of
that region, for the other timeframe participant that initially
drove price should reject any auction attempts near the lowvolume area.
High- and low-volume areas do not represent "mechanical" trades.
They do, however, provide useful reference points that enable traders to
visualize potential future activity. The importance of such reference
points lies in the detection of market change. By monitoring activity
around high- and low-volume areas, a trader can determine whether or
not directional conviction has changed since the area was formed.
Through the detection of fundamental change, traders can better manage
their risk and identify areas offering favorable trade location.
Summary—Day Timeframe Trading
Let's pause for a moment and imagine a vast desert with nothing but
sand in all directions. A man walks along, his throat dry and his lips
cracked. Suddenly, he sees before him a shimmering pool of water just
over the next dune. He runs towards it, relief finally in sight. He reaches
the top of the sand hill and jumps—only to land in more sand. The water
was a mirage created by the sun and his overwhelming desire to find
water.
It is important to keep in mind at all times that the market can easily create a day timeframe "mirage" regarding longer-term market direction. When a trader is looking too hard for certain market conditions and
the market exhibits some characteristics of what he seeks, the result is
often a mirage that can leave a trader high and dry. For example, when a
market opens substantially above the previous day's range and attempts
to auction down all day, it appears as if the seller is in control. A trader
with a strong bearish bias might jump into a trade, thinking his or her
convictions were correct. However, if value is still established higher,
then the buyer may actually be in control in the longer term. In this section we discussed day timeframe control—which way the market is
trying to go in the day timeframe. In the previous example, the seller
was in control in the day timeframe. In Section II, "Long-Term Trading,"
we delve into an understanding of the longer term that can prevent a
trader from being fooled by day timeframe mirages—an understanding
that will help a trader develop the ability to take advantage of long term
opportunity.
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Section II: Long-Term Trading
In Section I, we compared Mike Singletary to a day timeframe futures
trader. He studies charts and game films to prepare for each game, but
operates solely in the present tense when he is on the football field.
Similarly, the day timeframe trader studies recent market activity, but
when the trading session begins, he or she acts purely on the day's
evolving information. The academic knowledge becomes synthesized in
the trader's mind to form a holistic picture, allowing for objective, intuitive decision making.
The longer-term trader, on the other hand, is more like Singletary's
coach. A good coach knows that winning games, or even division titles,
does not insure long-term success. A football team may go undefeated
one year but could easily suffer a losing season the following year if the
coach does not consider the longer-term effects of aging players, the upcoming draft, and the changing abilities of his competitors. The coach
builds the strength of his team over time, bringing in new talent and
constantly evaluating the long-term factors necessary to compile a winning record.
The futures market exhibits similar characteristics. The strength and
duration of a trend is largely subject to the "aging" of its original participants, as well as the talent and conviction of any new business that is
brought in. And, like a successful coaching career, successful long-term
trading not only requires winning consistently in the day timeframe, but
also a careful analysis of all the factors that affect the marker's longerterm performance. The discussions in this section are designed to help
traders move from focusing on each individual day timeframe situation
to a more holistic, longer-term evaluation. Only through a synthesis of
both can one compile a winning record.
Long-Term Directional Conviction
In Day Timeframe Trading (Section I), we studied the progression of the
information generated by the market in the day timeframe. More important, we examined how a variety of structural and logical relationships
produced by the day timeframe auction process help to convey the directional conviction of the other timeframe. Because each day auction is a
contributing element to the longer-term auction process, these same concepts apply equally well to longer-term market analysis. Not surprisingly, our analysis of the longer term returns us to the same two
all-encompassing questions: "Which way is the market trying to go," and
"Is it doing a good job in its attempts to go that way?" We will first
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discuss a series of facts that help us gauge attempted direction. Later, we
examine the methods for evaluating directional performance. Finally, we
unveil an easy, simplistic Long-Term Activity Record designed to assist a
trader in forming a holistic image of the Big Picture.
Attempted Direction: Which Way Is the Market Trying to Go?
When either the other timeframe buyer or seller exerts a greater influence
on price, a variety of observable, longer-term directional changes are
generated by the market. Each is listed below and then discussed in
detail on the following pages. They are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Auction Rotations
Range Extension
Long-Term Excess
Buying/Selling Composite Days
It is important to remember that these are merely attempted direction
indicators. A complete understanding must incorporate longer-term
directional performance, which will be covered in the latter portion of
Section II.
Auction Rotations In Day Timeframe Trading, we detailed a quick
method for evaluating the cumulative directional attempts of a day's
auction rotations. This method, the Rotation Factor, enables a trader to
measure attempted market direction by producing a value that represents the sum of each day's half-hour auction rotations. The theory behind the Rotation Factor is simple. If a greater number of time periods
auction higher than lower, then the buyer is exerting greater control over
price in the day timeframe—the market is trying to move higher.
The Rotation Factor is by no means an all-conclusive indication of
future market direction. It is, however, a useful tool in determining
which way the market is trying to go in the day timeframe. Since a
longer term auction is composed of a series of day timeframe auctions,
recording and comparing the daily Rotation Factor can help traders
gauge the strength and relative change in a market's longer-term directional conviction.
•
Range Extension Range extension signals the entrance of the other
timeframe participant beyond the initial balance set up by the locals. Persistent range extension in several time periods indicates that trade is
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being facilitated better in the direction of the range extension. Observing
and recording continual range extension on successive days reveals a
longer-term tendency in the market. In Figure 4-59 for example, five consecutive days in the Swiss franc saw strong initiative buying range extension, which alerted traders to the presence of strong other timeframe
buyers fueling the bull trend.
Long-Term Excess Earlier, we defined short-term excess as the aggressive entry of the other timeframe participant as price moves away from
value, creating a tail in the day timeframe. An example of short-term
excess is evident in gold on May 2, 1989 (Figure 4 - 6 0 ) . The six tick
buying tail in I period was generated by strong responsive buyers who
quickly took advantage of a selling price probe (range extension) below
value. Day timeframe excess not only provides continual, recordable
clues regarding other timeframe directional conviction, but it also often
stands as the pivot point marking a longer-term directional move. The
strong buying tail in gold, for instance, supported the market during
subsequent trading sessions.
Longer-term excess is caused by the same forces that create day
timeframe excess. When a price level is perceived to be too low in the
longer term, for instance, the other timeframe buyer will enter the market
aggressively, forcing price to quickly auction higher. Prices that are
deemed below longer-term value generally form one of three types of
excess: an island day, a long-term tail or a gap. Refer to the daily bar
chart in Figure 4-61 for the following discussion of the three types of
long term excess.
Island Days January 3, 1989 (point A) displays the first of the three
types of longer term excess, the "island day." Island days are formed by
aggressive initiative activity that causes price to gap above or below the
previous day's range. The market spends the entire session trading at
these higher or lower levels (attempting to validate price), but returns to
previously established value on the following day, leaving behind an "island" of trade.
On the 3rd, the yen market opened 84 ticks above the high of
December 30. After the gap higher open, the yen continued auctioning
significantly higher, only to meet responsive sellers that were aggressive
enough to reverse the day timeframe auction and close the yen on its
lows. Because of the weak close on a day that had opened so far out of
balance, the possibility was relatively high that long-term buying excess
had formed. Buying excess was confirmed when the yen gapped some 50
ticks lower on the open of the following day, creating longer-term excess
in the form of an island. Island days are the most extreme form of excess
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and often provide lasting resistance against future auction attempts. Figure 4-61 displays another island day occurring in the yen on April 4
(point G).
Long-Term Tails The second form of excess does not exhibit the violent
gap activity that makes an island day so easy to identify. On a daily bar
chart, this lesser form of price rejection looks more like a day timeframe
tail at the end of a longer-term trend. One such long-term tail is evident
in the Japanese yen on January 19 in Figure 4-61 (point B). Compare the
enlarged bar chart in Figure 4-62 to the segmented Profile of the day
timeframe tail we described earlier in gold (Figure 4-63). The half hour
auction rotations are strikingly similar to the daily auction rotations. This
is an excellent example of how the auction process applies to all
timeframes. Day and longer-term excess is created by the same activity
occurring over varying lengths of time.
Referring again to Figure 4-61, the yen had been in a down trend
since the island day on January 3. On the 19th, the yen opened substantially below the 18th's lows. The gap lower suggested that the down
trend was continuing. However, the responsive buyer perceived price to
be below value and entered the market aggressively, creating an unusually strong 'longer-term'' buying tail. The close on the highs signified
staunch rejection and that intermediate to longer term excess may have
formed.
When using a standard bar chart, every new low or high, it seems,
has the potential to be longer-term
How does one know which is
excess and which is actually a developing probe to new value? Much like
the formation of a potential day timeframe tail that is not confirmed until
the following half-hour time period, a longer-term tail cannot be positively confirmed until the following day. However, as in the day
timeframe, the market does provide reliable early clues regarding the
formation of longer-term tails. For example, examine the activity of
January 13 and 18 (points C and D), two days with similar ranges. Both
trading sessions recorded new lows, but they also closed near their lower
extremes, indicating continual seller presence. In contrast, on the 19th the
yen gapped lower on the open, but closed on the upper extreme. The yen
had overextended itself to the downside, at least temporarily. The
responsive other timeframe buyer entered and quickly auctioned price
higher, establishing potential intermediate to longer-term excess.
Another longer-term tail occurred three trading days later on the
24th (point E in Figure 4-61), as the seller reentered the market after a
substantially higher open and closed the yen on the lows. This price
reversal, occurring so soon after the relatively strong rejection on the
19th, reasserted the strength of the downward trend.
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Gaps The final type of long-term excess is a gap. A gap is caused by
initiative other timeframe participants who, between the market's close
and the following day's open, change their perceptions of value. Price
rejection, in effect, occurs overnight, as the market gaps above or below
the previous day's extremes on the following day.
On February 9 (point F in Figure 4-61), for example, the yen gapped
above the 8th's highs, igniting a buying auction away from the balance
region that had formed from January 30 through February 8. During a
gap, a market does not create the typical tail formation that so often signifies excess. Rather, the gap itself indicates swift price rejection (an "invisible tail"). In comparison to tails, gaps are actually a stronger, albeit
less obvious form of excess. Note that island days are always confirmed
by gaps.
Summary Both short- and long-term excess, when properly identified,
provide reliable indications of a market's directional conviction. The
price levels at which the other timeframe participant enters the market
and creates excess are valuable reference points for the longer-term
trader. Excess is most often used as support or resistance for longer-term
trade location. In addition, if the market returns and trades through the
point of excess, a trader knows that the opposite activity is fueled by a
high level of confidence and will most likely display continuation.
Buying/Selling Composite Days A quick way to assess a market's attempted direction is known as composite analysis. Composite analysis
simply evaluates where the majority of the day's trade took place relative
to the day's open; it is performed by dividing the range into four equal
parts. If the open is in the top or bottom one fourth, it is designated a
"composite" day. A composite buying day occurs when the open resides
in the bottom fourth of the day's range. Conversely, a composite selling
day is characterized by an open within the top fourth of the range. An
open in the center half indicates low directional conviction in either
direction. Point B in Figure 4-61 shows a buying composite day in the
yen. Figure 4-64 illustrates the composite methodology.
The logic behind this theory is relatively simple. If a market spends
most of the day auctioning above the open, then the market is attempting to go higher. If the market trades below the open for most of the day,
then it is trying to auction lower. Keep in mind that composite analysis
does not consider the question "How good a job is it doing in its attempts to auction in that direction?" Remember the "illusion" that can
arise from a market that gaps higher and auctions down all day, but
develops higher value. Like all other directional measures, composite
analysis must be evaluated in conjunction with value area relationships
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and the level of trade facilitation generated by the market's attempt to
auction in a given direction.
Summary Any combination of directional measures may be present on
a given day. For instance, a particular trading session might exhibit composite buying structure, a positive Rotation Factor, initiative buying tails
and range extension, and higher value—unanimous indications of a
market that is trying to auction higher. On some days, however, the indicators will contradict themselves. When directional measures conflict,
they cancel each other out, indicating a market less confident in its directional course.
Yet, the answers to the question, ''Which way is the market trying to
go?'' cannot stand alone. They must be considered in conjunction with
the second Big Question, "Is the market doing a good job?"
Directional Performance: Is the Market Doing a Good Job in Its
Attempts to Get There?
Let us return to our local grocer for a moment. Suppose that the grocer
decides to expand his business by moving into a bigger building, in
hopes of increasing his market share. In trading terms, his attempted
direction is "up." Once the move is made, the question then becomes,
"Will the expansion facilitate more trade?"
Over the ensuing weeks, the grocer finds that increased shelf space
does not attract new customers. His business (and expense) has moved
up, but transactional volume has not. Disappointed, the grocer realizes
that the small community cannot support a larger store. Faced with
rising overhead and dwindling profits, he moves back into his old build0*
The futures market acts in a similar fashion. Relying solely on
which way a market is trying to go can lead to financial disaster, unless
you can also gauge the effectiveness of the market's attempts to go that
way. Monitoring attempted direction for directional performance—determining how good of a job it is doing—is the key to a complete market
understanding and longer-term trading results. Once attempted direction
is known, three comparative factors are useful in evaluating a market's
directional performance:
1. Volume
2. Value-Area Placement
3. Value-Area Width
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Volume As we get deeper into the longer-term forces behind directional conviction, one element stands high above the rest when it comes to
evaluating directional performance—volume. Not surprisingly, volume is
also the best measure of a market's ability to facilitate trade. Once attempted direction is known, volume should be used as the primary
means of determining directional performance.
Put simply, the greater the volume of transactions, the better trade
is being facilitated. In our grocery store example, a larger store did not
generate additional volume and consequently failed. Similarly, in the futures market, a price movement that fails to generate a fair amount of
volume as it auctions through time will likely not continue for very long
in the same direction.
Evaluating Changes in Volume To determine whether or not volume is
increasing, it is necessary to compare each day to previous volume
figures. However, there is no standard number of day timeframe transactions in any market, for volume evolves with a market's changing activity. The key to recognizing change is to think of volume more in terms
of market share than in the actual number of transactions occurring (except, of course, when the number of transactions drops below that which
signifies a liquid market). Therefore, a trader must keep a running record
of volume to be able to detect any significant departures from the current
average. This average will vary depending on your trading timeframe.
Volume as a Measure of Directional Performance Suppose that a movie
theater raises the price of admission. In the following weeks, ticket sales
drop substantially. At higher ticket prices, the theater is not facilitating
trade for the movie-goer. If the theater is going to stay in business, it will
have to lower price. Decreased volume indicates a rejection of higher
prices.
Volume plays the same role in evaluating the futures market's directional performance. For illustration, imagine that the market's attempted
direction on a given day is up, based on a positive Rotation Factor and
buying range extension. If the buying auctions are generating healthy or
increased volume (relative to your determined norm), then the market is
successfully facilitating trade with the buyer. Conversely, lower volume
on a day attempting to move higher suggests that the market is not accepting the buying attempts.
Value-Area Placement A structural indicator that helps us better refine
the level of directional performance is value-area placement. Through an
evaluation of the relationship of one day's value area to the next, we can
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move beyond simply determining if the market is doing a good job, to
how good of a job it is doing. In other words, if attempted direction is up
and volume is healthy, what impact does that have on value? Were
-buyers successful in placing value higher? How successful were they?
Was value unchanged, overlapping-to-higher, or completely higher?
Let us briefly describe the different relationships that can exist between two trading session's value areas. First, value can form clearly
higher or clearly lower, exhibiting obvious directional performance.
Second, value can overlap to one side or the other, indicating a lesser
degree of change. Third, when the value area is contained entirely within
the previous day's value area, it is known as an "inside day." The market
is in balance and is not facilitating trade with either participant. Finally,
an "outside day" occurs when a day's value area overlaps the previous
day's value area on both extremes, and represents greater trade facilitation. Much like a Neutral day, if an outside day closes in the middle of
the range, the market is in balance. If it closes on an extreme, however,
there is a "victor" in the day timeframe battle for control. A close on the
highs, for example, would indicate directional performance favoring the
buyer. Figure 4-65 illustrates these common value-area relationships.
Value-area placement often generates signals contrary to day
timeframe attempted direction. Figure 4-66 demonstrates such a scenario
occurring in the Treasury bond market. On September 12, bonds opened
unchanged to higher and spent the entire day auctioning down. The
result was a negative Rotation Factor, selling composite structure, and
continued sellng range extension—clearly a market trying to move
lower in the day timeframe. However, higher value was still maintained.
While day timeframe structure indicated seller dominance, value-area
placement suggested that the buyer was still in control in the longer
timeframe.
Evaluating Directional Performance through Combined Volume and
Value-Area Placement Arriving at a final evaluation of directional performance is like baking a cake—layer by layer. First, we must define attempted direction. Second, we evaluate trade facilitation according to
volume. And finally, we must determine the relative success of that trade
facilitation according to its impact on value-area placement.
In general, if attempted direction is up, volume is above average (or
at least average) and value is higher, then the market is successfully
facilitating trade at higher prices. However, if attempted direction is up
and volume is lower, then higher prices are cutting off activity—the
buying auctions are resulting in poor trade facilitation. If the buying attempts also result in lower value, then the other timeframe seller is still
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in control of the market, despite day timeframe buyer dominance. The
market must then move lower to resume balanced trade, much like the
aforementioned movie theater. Figure 4-67 illustrates the combined effect
of volume and value area in determining directional performance for the
above two scenarios.
Listed below are 30 different relationships based on volume, valuearea placement and attempted direction. Six of them are briefly detailed
in the following discussion. The accompanying figures include an inset
bar chart to show the activity following the day highlighted by each example. In addition, note that the volume comparisons in these examples
are relative to the previous day, not a predefined average.
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Figure 4-68, Treasury Bonds on September 1 and 2,1988 Treasury bonds gapped
open above the previous day's range and drove sharply higher. Attempted direction was clearly up, as witnessed by an initiative buying
tail, initiative buying range extension, a positive Rotation Factor and
buying composite structure. Substantially higher volume and the resulting higher value confirmed that the directional performance of the buyer
was strong.
Figure 4-69, Gold on July 28 and 29,1988 The gold market on the 29th was
clearly attempting to auction higher. And, although the buying auctions
managed to build higher value, volume declined, indicating poor directional performance. Underlying market conditions were weakening. The
inset bar chart shows the subsequent return to seller control.
Figure 4-70, Treasury Bonds on April 14 and 15,1988 After a lower opening on
April 15, bonds spent most of the day attempting to auction higher.
Longer-term traders relying solely on attempted direction might have
bought, perceiving day timeframe buyer control and an opportunity to
acquire relatively good intermediate-term trade location. However, the
upward auction attempts actually discouraged trade and were unable to
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return value to the levels of the previous day. The buyer's directional
performance on this day was very poor and indicated longer term control was in the hands of the other timeframe seller.
Figure 4-71, Gold on September 19 and 20,1988 On the 20th, gold opened and
tested above the previous day's highs. When no continuation developed,
other timeframe sellers entered the market and auctioned price lower all
day. Attempted direction was down, accompanied by lower value and
higher volume. Directional performance on this day clearly favored the
seller.
Figure 4-72, S&P 500 on August 3 and 4,1988 Attempted direction was obviously down on this Open-Drive selling day. However, the day's selling
attempts only managed overlapping to lower value and basically unchanged volume. This scenario generally indicates a market that is continuing but slowing and coming into balance or a market that is in the
midst of gradual transition. Subsequent trading sessions should be
monitored carefully for signs of directional conviction.
Value-Area Width One drawback to day trading is that exact volume
figures are usually not available until after the trading session is over.
However, one practical way to gauge the level of volume as the day
develops is through the value-area width. On days where volume is relatively low, the value area and the length of the range tend to be narrow.
For example, in Treasury bonds on April 17, 1989 (Figure 4-73), the
value area was only two ticks wide. Volume was at a scarce 120
thousand contracts. In this particular case, the lack of facilitation was due
to the fact that traders had balanced their positions in anticipation of the
Producer Price Index figure to be released on the following day. Conversely, value areas tend to widen on days exhibiting higher volume (Figure
4-74). On April 27, the value area was a healthy 16 ticks wide. Volume
on this day was just short of 600,000 contracts.
The logic behind this theory is that the wider the value area, the
greater the range of prices at which trade is being conducted. This results
in increased participation, for as price auctions higher and lower, different timeframes are "brought in" to the market as they perceive price
to be away from value. The farther price travels, the better the possibility
that new activity will enter the market, thus creating greater trade
facilitation (and higher volume).
We conducted a limited study comparing total volume with average
value area width for Treasury Bonds from December 14, 1988, through
June 22, 1989 (Figure 4-75). The data clearly showed a marked increase
in volume on days with larger value areas. For example, the average
volume on days with a value area 1 to 5 ticks wide was 127,000 contracts. Days with value areas of 11 to 15 ticks, however, averaged roughly 284,000 contracts, while value areas of 21 to 25 ticks were regularly
around 313,00 contracts.
Summary: Long-Term Activity Record We have now covered a variety
of ways to measure attempted market direction and directional performance. Keep in mind, however, that focusing on just one method can
lead to tunnel vision and an incomplete understanding of true market
conditions. It is necessary to synthesize all the elements of direction and
performance to arrive at a holistic market understanding.
Figure 4-76 contains a simplified "Long-Term Activity Record"
designed to help traders organize the answers to the two Big Questions
addressed in this section. Figure 4-76 is left blank for you to pull out and
copy if you wish. However, we encourage you to create your own longterm activity record that better fits your needs and trading timeframe. To
illustrate the use of the LTAR, we have isolated a brief period in the
Soybean market, and recorded the attempted direction and directional
performance for each day. Figures 4-77 through 4-85 show Soybean activity from May 16-22, 1989, and the completed LTAR's that correspond
to each day.
Long-Term Auction Rotations
The auction process is akin to a vertical tug-of-war, with price moving
higher when buyers are in control and lower when sellers are in control.
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The auction rotations are, in a sense, the structural footprints of the rotational struggle between the other timeframe participants. In the day
timeframe, the auctions take the form of either one-timeframe or twotimeframe market conditions. Long-term auction rotations are composed
of the same form of activity. However, the "footprints" are recorded over
a longer period of time. A bracket, for example, is a long-term twotimeframe market, while a trend is a long-term one-timeframe market.
Just as a day trader must be aware of timeframe control, it is crucial
for a longer-term trader to know whether the market is trending or in a
bracket. The following discussion details the longer-term trade applications of bracketed and trending markets. Our goal is to arrive at methods
to objectively assess long term market movement.
Brackets In review, markets spend approximately 70 percent of the
time in a trading range, or bracket, in which the other timeframe buyer
and seller become responsive parties. When a market is bracketing, the
other timeframe participants have similar views of value, and the prices
at which they are willing to do business grow much closer together. As
price nears the top of the perceived bracket, the seller responds and auctions price downward. In turn, the responsive buyer enters at the lower
bracket extreme and rotates price back to the upside. As the market attempts to facilitate trade between the buyer and seller, price movements
tend to be volatile, auctioning back and forth with no real longer-term
directional conviction (Figure 4-66).
It is difficult to define a bracket in absolute terms. As with a trend,
seldom do two traders have the same definition of a bracket, for all
traders operate with a different timeframe in mind. The daily bar chart
for Treasury bonds in Figure 4-87 can be broken down into a myriad of
individual brackets. For example, the entire bar chart could be considered a bracket by a longer-term trader, spanning some six months
(point 1 in Figure 4-87). The longer-term participant might seek to buy
below 87:00 and sell above 91:00.
A shorter-term swing trader, on the other hand, might break the
bond market down into a smaller bracket, as shown by point 2 in Figure
4-88. This balanced region encompasses roughly a month. The swing
trader would attempt to place longs around 88-00, then exit and go short
above 89-16.
Figure 4-89 illustrates some of the many possible brackets contained
within the bond market over this particular six-month period. There are
brackets within brackets . . . within brackets, depending on your trading
timeframe. At point 5 in Figure 4-89, a shorter-term trader might consider six days of overlapping value to be a bracket. A longer-term trader,
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however, would consider that region to be a part of the longer-term
bracket at point 4,
Even if two traders agree on a balance area, they still may differ on
the actual extremes of the bracket. In Figure 4-90, one swing trader
might consider the bracket extremes to be created by recurring valuearea tops and bottoms. Another swing trader might use price extremes
(excess) to define the bracket, as in Figure 4-91. The point is, bracket
definition is largely a product of time. There is no perfect bracket, just as
there is no perfect trend. The important concept to remember is that to successfully trade in a bracketed market, it is necessary to clearly define the bracket
in which you are trading according to your timeframe.
It is helpful to literally '"draw in" the bracket extremes as you perceive them. This allows you to visualize future auction rotations and
ideal trade location. When you clearly define a bracket, you are, in effect,
testing your market understanding. Brackets do evolve, however, and it
is important to constantly monitor for fundamental changes. By observing and continually reevaluating your view of the bigger picture, you
will gain experience and further the learning process that is necessary to
becoming an expert trader.
Trade Location in a Bracketed Market Once you realize that you are in a
bracketed market and have defined the bracket extremes, several guideEnes can help you secure proper trade location, improve your trading
performance and manage your trade risk.
Rule 1: Monitor market direction and location within the current bracket All trades in
a bracketed market should be placed responsively. We use the term
"responsive" here in a more generic sense than has been previously discussed. Consider it this way: the distance from the top of the bracket to
the bottom, regardless of the bracket's size, is similar to a day's range.
Therefore, the "value area" is contained within the middle of the bracket.
Longs placed below the bracket value area are considered responsive, as
are shorts placed above. Any trade positioned in the middle of the
balance area is initiative and offers poor bracket trade location,
At point 1 in Figure 4-92, for example, the responsive seller
responds to price approaching the top of a bracket. Shorts entered at this
point result in minimum upside exposure relative to downside profit
potential. If the market continues up, movement to the upside should be
slowed by resistance at the top of the bracket. This would allow a trader
time to evaluate the trade and, if necessary, exit the short at minimal
loss.
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At point 2, however, activity is initiative and trade location is poor
for short positions. Immediate upside exposure is equal to downside
profit potential. A long placed here embodies even greater risk, for the
current medium term auction is down.
The market eventually auctions back to the top of the bracket at
point 3. Longs placed here with the initiative buyer offer little upside
potential with the risk of price returning to bracket lows. Shorts should
be entered at the upper extreme with the expectation that longer-term
sellers will respond to price above value. If price auctions above the
bracket top, however (point 4), the market may be poised to break-out of
the balanced area. If price is accepted above the bracket shorts should be
exited and longs placed with the break-out activity. Conversely, if the
upper extreme offers resistance and price is returned within the bracket,
shorts offer excellent trade location. In both cases, trades should be
monitored carefully, for movement is often swift coming off a bracket.
Rule 2: Markets generally test the bracket extreme more than once If you miss an
opportunity to sell a bracket top (or buy a bracket bottom), do not
scramble to enter a trade for fear that you will not get another chance.
Chasing a bracketed market only results in poor trade location. Over a
large sample size, the market will return to test the bracket extreme on
the average of three to five times before moving to new levels with confidence.
Rule 3: Markets fluctuate within bracketed regions A market generally will not
auction from one extreme of a bracket to the other in a "beeline." Rather,
price fluctuates within the balanced area: from top to middle, middle to
top, middle to bottom, etc. Due to the price fluctuations, swing trades
placed in the middle of a bracket offer poor trade location.
Rule 4: Monitor activity near the bracket extremes for acceptance/rejection When
price auctions near a bracket low, it is easy to let objectivity slip and
begin to anticipate that the market will travel through the bracket. After
all, recent activity has been to the downside-why should it stop now?
However, it is extremely dangerous to place a short at the bracket low
before the market has exhibited acceptance and follow-through below
the bracket. If you are wrong, you have positioned yourself with the
worst possible trade location, in a market that will most likely auction
back to the bracket's upper extreme.
Remember, in a bracketed market, both the other timeframe buyer
and seller are responsive participants. Responsive activity is generally
much slower and more gradual to develop. A trader usually has time to
monitor the bracket extremes for rejection or follow-through.
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Transition: Bracket to Trend All brackets eventually evolve into some
form of a trend, just as all trends end in a balancing area, or bracket. It is
an ongoing cycle. Because of the vast difference in trading techniques
during a trend and a bracket, it is necessary to be able to identify when
such a transition is occurring. Again, because every trader operates
within a different timeframe, it is impossible to positively define a perfect "transition rule." Traders with exceptionally long timeframes might
consider a year-long trend to be part of a larger bracket. Conversely, a
swing trader might consider a week of consecutively higher value areas
to be a trend. Identifying the transition from a bracket to a trend is a
product of your personal timeframe.
In Day Timeframe Trading, we discussed transition in terms of onetimeframe and two-timeframe conditions. The same concept can be applied to the longer-term auctions. When a market is in a bracket, both the
other timeframe buyer and seller are present and active (over a longer
period of time). There is no clear longer-term directional conviction. A
transition occurs when the initiative participants exert more control over
price than the responsive participants.
In the longer-term, transition is marked by the formation of excess
confirmed by sustained follow-through in the opposite direction. The
beginning of an up trend, for example, is usually marked by the aggressive entry the other timeframe buyer, creating excess in the form of a
longer-term buying tail or a buying gap. The responsive buyer overwhelms the seller, and the market begins to trend upward, turning initiative as it passes through previously established value. In Figure 4-93, the
buyer entered responsively at point 1 within a balanced area, The subsequent initiative buying gaps at points 2, 3, and 4 established strong
long-term excess and confirmed the conviction of the initiative other
timeframe buyer. This gapping activity began an upward trend that
spanned some four months.
In the intermediate term, a transition might take the form of a
balance-area break-out. In Figure 4-94, for instance, the S&P had
developed three days of overlapping value (February 1-3). On February
7, the S&P "broke-out" of the balance area, indicating a transition to a
trending scenario. The result was a Double Distribution Buying Trend
day. Similarly, Treasury bonds exhibited an intermediate-term transition
from bracket to trend on April 9 (Figure 4-95). After eight days of overlapping value, a multiple-distribution Trend day signaled the reentry of
an initiative other timeframe seller with strong directional conviction.
Trends A trend is the result of clear control and directional conviction
by either the other timeframe buyer or seller. The stronger the conviction
underpinning the trend, the greater the excess that usually sparks the
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trend's beginning. In other words, a trend of great magnitude will typically have an elongated longer-term tail and/or a large gap (invisible
tail) that creates a firm base from which the trend begins (Figure 4-96). It
follows that early trend activity will tend to be more dramatic and
pronounced, witnessed by more range extensions, elongated Profiles and
substantial tails.
Trade Location in a Trending Market There is no such thing as good trade
location during the early stages of a trend. If the market is truly trending,
price will continually lead value. The key to trade location is simply to
"get on board early" and then monitor the market for continuation. If a
trend is strong, your position should soon be rewarded with followthrough and your trade location should improve. If not, then the trend is
suspect and trades should be exited.
Early entry in a trending market is more difficult than it sounds, for
it means that a trader must buy considerably above recent perceptions of
value. Picking up the phone and saying "buy it" when price is quickly
auctioning above the last several days' value areas can be a nerve-wracking experience, even for the trader who is usually calm and objective.
When a trend emerges after a prolonged balance area, a trader must
quickly reverse his or her trading perspective. It is very difficult to
change from a responsive mode to the go-with, trail-blazing mentality of
the initiative trader.
Later in the hie of a trend, however, trades should be placed
responsively, or when the market temporarily breaks during an up trend
(or rallies in a down trend). Regardless of "where you are" within a
longer-term trend, it is safest to trade with the trend. You will save the cost
of this book ten times over if you simply do not trade against a trend.
Monitoring Trends for Continuation One useful way to monitor a trend
for signs of continuation and/or slowing by comparing activity on up
days against activity occurring on down days. While in an up trend, for
example, determine which way each individual trading session is attempting to go. Then, compare the volume generated on down days versus the up days. If a trend is strong, up days should exhibit greater trade
facilitation by generating higher volume than down days. When volume
begins to increase on days against the trend, then the trend is aging and
may soon begin to balance, or enter a bracket.
Transition: Trend to Bracket A trend is officially over when the responsive participant is able to exert as much influence on price as the initiator. An up trend has ended, for instance, when the responsive other
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timeframe seller is able to create significant excess at the top of the trend,
Once the trend is over, the market will begin to balance. As a market
begins the bracketing process, traders should revert to a responsive
mode, seeking to sell the top of the bracket and buy the bottom.
Examine Figure 4-96 containing the daily bar chart for crude oil.
The longer term trend that began in late November 1988 began to
balance when the responsive seller was strong enough to induce a gap
lower opening on March 28,1989. Although the resulting excess did not
last for long, it indicated that the initiative buyer was weakening and a
trading range was developing.
Figure 4-97 provides a second example of a transition from trend to
bracket, although over a much shorter period of time. After two strong
buying days on January 19 and 20, the Japanese yen began to balance.
The inability of the buyer to establish continually higher value indicated
the presence of the responsive seller. The yen had entered a short-term
bracketing period as evidenced by responsive activity on both extremes
of the bracket (see circled areas).
Detailed Analysis of a Developing Market To bring the concepts of a
bracketed market to life, we will now take a detailed look at the developing Treasury bond market from late October 1988 to early May 1989. We
have specifically chosen this time period for its volatility. A volatile,
bracketing market is a complex and emotionally difficult market to trade.
In a trend, trade location is simply a matter of "Am I too late?" and "Can
I buy above or sell below value?" Trading in a bracketed market, however, is much more challenging. To be successful, traders must mentally
change gears quickly—literally trade from several different states of
mind. Since markets generally spend between 70 and 80 percent of the
time bracketing, such a challenge is the norm—not the exception—in futures trading.
In a bracketed market, the other timeframe buyer and seller are
much closer together in their perception of value (see Bracketed Markets
in Chapter 3). Both are actively probing to determine the condition of the
marketplace. As an illustration, consider the development of the computer chip industry. Early on, when microchips were suddenly in great
demand but only produced by a few suppliers, prices trended steadily
higher. However, as new producers entered the marketplace and existing
suppliers increased their output, the computer chip market entered a
bracketing phase. Price began to auction back and forth between the
long-term participants as their perceptions of value started to narrow.
Buyers and sellers, in effect, were testing each other to determine the
condition of the market. Attempts by producers to raise price were sometimes rejected as buyers found alternative, less expensive sources. Con-
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versely, sometimes higher prices were accepted due to a temporary flux
of buyers.
Bracket Reference Points To successfully trade a bracketed market, you
must first recognize that the market lacks long-term directional conviction and, consequently, become more selective in your trading. In other
words, it is essential that you develop both a "hands-on" strategy and a
"minds-on" approach to evaluating the market's auctions. Because of the
closeness of timeframes, the market's probes for acceptance of value appear to be extremely disorganized, often to the point of random rotation.
We will show that in some cases this is actually true. However, there are
many other times when the "footprints" of the market's auctions provide
valuable information regarding short-term conviction, enabling alert
traders to identify change in its early stages.
The key to selective trading lies in the understanding, recognizing,
and recording of a few very basic reference points. Not surprisingly,
these reference points are generated by many of the market forces we
have already discussed—forces such as market balance, Nontrend days,
balance break-outs and auction failures. Before we delve into our detailed Treasury bond example, let us first recap a few of the forces that
shape a bracketed market.
A market that lacks directional conviction spends the majority of its
time in very short-term balance areas. Intermittently, the market will
break-out of the balance region and make a swift directional move to a
new price level, whereupon it again returns to balance. This chain of
events happens again and again, until conditions change significantly
and sustained other timeframe conviction surfaces. Until then, it is wise
to maintain a relatively short trading timeframe. Generally, a trade
should be held overnight only if there is substantial structural evidence
in its favor.
There is little opportunity in the short-term balance regions, for they
usually lack any semblance of directional conviction. The sharp price
spurts between balance areas, on the other hand, last for a short period
of time but offer a high degree of opportunity for the trader who is alert
and prepared to take advantage of them. Because of the swift nature of a
break-out, traders must not only be able to recognize the auction behavior that leads to a probe away from balance, but also have the foresight
to enter orders ahead of time to take advantage of the potential breakout.
The key to early identification of a break-out lies in the concept of
market balance. In a bracket, the market develops a series of short term
balance areas (brackets within brackets), or consecutive days of overlapping value. In most cases, the direction that the market "breaks-out" of
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these short term balance areas proves to be the beginning of at least a
short-term auction. The salient concept is follow-through. Monitoring a
break-out for continuation is the key to identifying other timeframe
control.
In the large majority of cases, a break-out will begin with either a
gap or an auction failure. After several days of overlapping value, a gap
opening indicates that the market is out of balance and could be breaking out in the direction of the gap. A more subtle form of break-out occurs when the market tests one extreme, fails to follow through, and
breaks-out in the opposite direction, forming an "outside" day—a day
that extends beyond both of the previous session's extremes. For example, consider a market that develops overlapping value on six consecutive days. On the seventh day, the market tests below the balance area
lows, fails to follow-through and then auctions quickly to the upside,
forming an outside day. The initial auction failure is the first indication
that the market has the potential to break out of balance, for it forms
excess and establishes a known reference point. The frequency of this
behavior is witnessed by the great number of substantial day timeframe
price movements that are also outside days.
We emphasize, however, that observing market behavior and actually placing the trade are two entirely different actions. After several
days of overlapping value, for example, it is easy to grow accustomed to
the seemingly random, back-and-forth balancing. When the market finally tests below the short-term bracket low and fails to follow through,
it is relatively easy to recognize the potential for an outside day. However, the ensuing auction back through the balance area appears to be
the same activity that has lulled the trader to sleep during previous days.
As one trader put it, "I can identify the auction failure and I know that
there is a good possibility that the market will move substantially higher,
b u t . . . I just can't pull the trigger. The phone gets extremely heavy."
Trading a bracketed market is by no means easy, even with clearly
defined reference points. As we stated earlier, you must "do the trade"
in order to build the experience and confidence necessary to take advantage of a sound market understanding.
As you proceed through our dissection of the Treasury bond market, one fact should ring loud and clear. Overlapping value regions, auction failures, break-outs, and the resulting outside days happen over and
over again. They literally form the backbone of a bracketed market. As
you become more familiar with their formations and consistent behavior,
what once seemed to be virtually random, unorganized behavior will
begin to take on a new meaning, to make sense. You will realize that
through these apparently random auctions, the market is actually organizing itself, fulfilling its purpose—facilitating trade. For the trader,
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these behaviors and resulting structural features draw the road map that
is so critical to selectively taking advantage of the dynamic short-term
price movements that characterize a bracketed market. The points discussed below are highlighted in Figures 4-98 through 4-101.
Region A (Figure 4-98) After a strong buying auction, the Treasury bond
market recorded potential buying excess at 90-12 on November 1. The
selling gap denoted by point 1 columned the excess and set into motion
a sustained move to the downside. Excess, in this case a long-term selling tail and a selling gap, should act as resistance to future long-term
buying auctions. If price trades back through these areas of rejection, the
condition of the market will have changed (the other timeframe sellers
that initially drove price are no longer present).
At point 2, the Bond market came into short-term balance, as is
evidenced by two days of overlapping value. On the third day, a probe
above the balance failed to attract buying and was swiftly rejected.
Armed with the knowledge that there was no interest in buying, the
bond market then broke below the balance area to start a new selling
auction. The result was a dynamic outside day. When it comes to being
selective in your trades, these are the conditions that you should be looking for. Identify overlapping value/balance regions. Then, monitor the
probes beyond these regions for acceptance or rejection. If they are accepted, the market will probably continue to auction in that direction, at
least for a few days. If they are rejected, however, stay alert and get
ready to reverse your trading state of mind.
Note that the failed auction created short-term excess on the day's
high—remember, markets need to auction too high to know that they
have gone high enough. Point 3 shows the same behavior occurring all
over again. After three days of overlapping value, an auction above the
previous two days' highs failed, resulting in yet another outside selling
day. Following the break-out at point 3, bonds once again settled into
balance, recording five days of narrowing, overlapping value (point 4).
The bond market gapped sharply below the balance area on the following day, but failed to continue. Point 5 shows aggressive responsive
buyers closed the market very near its high on this day, signaling the
potential formation of selling excess. To confirm the excess at 89-06,
buyers should show continuation out of this region.
Region B (Figure 4-99) The day following the selling gap at point 5 opened
higher, then auctioned down to test the at 89-06 low. Aggressive other
timeframe buyers were still present and they again closed the day on its
highs, confirming the selling excess at 89-06. This new buying was
fueled by strong directional conviction, as was evidenced by the fact that
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buyers were able to auction price completely through the previous day's
selling gap.
After a quick upward swing auction, point 6 shows that bonds
opened and attempted to auction higher, but failed to "take out" the
short-term excess that had previously been formed at point 3. On this
day, bonds had opened above the previous day's range—out of balance.
When the buying auction failed and bonds returned down into the previous day's range, traders were alerted that the market possessed unlimited downside potential. Anyone still long at this point should have
exited. Versatile traders might even have entered short positions,
monitoring carefully for seller continuation. The result was a dynamic,
outside selling day.
Point 7 demonstrates how important it is to be able to mentally
switch gears. After the swift outside selling day, sellers were unable to
muster continuation. Bonds gapped higher, erased the short-term excess
at points 3 and 6, and stopped directly at the excess created at point 2.
The fact that the bond market stopped at this level is no coincidence.
Gaps and other forms of excess are important reference points. By
monitoring activity around them for follow-through or rejection, a trader
can evaluate the market's directional attempts.
On the next day (point 8), bonds opened higher and began to auction into the selling gap established at point 1, However, buyers failed to
auction completely through the selling gap and the market closed near
its lows. The resistance provided by the gap created more than a month
earlier was still intact.
After establishing potential buying excess at point 8, the market
quickly came into balance, as is shown by the development of overlapping value on the following two days. On the third day, a test of the
excess at point 8 failed (bonds closed on the low), which fueled an intermediate bracketing period bounded by excess at points 9 and 10. Note
that in the bracketing process the selling gap at point 1 was erased. The
only remaining long-term reference point to the upside was the 90-12
long-term high established on November 1.
Points 11 and 12 show the familiar overlapping value/balance formation, followed by a failed auction in one direction and the resulting
dramatic price move in the other. Known reference points come into play
again at Point 11. In this case, the outside day was a result of the seller's
failure to attract new selling business below the previous day's low, and
also the short term selling excess generated back at point 9.
Region C (Figure 4-100) The buying auction at point 13 erased the 90-12
long-term high, negating any probability of a long term top to the bond
market. Treasury bonds then entered a period of extreme volatility. Al-
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though price was migrating higher, there was a total lack of directional
conviction. Traders should have day timeframe traded only until clear
signs of conviction appeared. Bonis finally gapped sharply lower at
- point 14—the first indication of directional conviction in nearly a month.
Point 15 shows a similar nonconviction period occurring in February and
March.
The areas marked by points 15 and 16 exhibit a clear lack of excess
supporting their lower reaches—another characteristic of a nonconviction
market Even though the market began a gradual buying auction at point
15, it was unlikely that buyers would move price substantially until highconviction selling excess was recorded.
Think back to the last time you got into a heated argument with a
good friend. Remember how the issues became emotional rather than
rational? Market behavior during times of nonconviction is much the
same. It is not clear which way the market's "argument" is heading, nor
when the directional issue will be solved. A lot of unintentional hurt can
be dealt when an argument reaches the emotional level. Similarly, an
irrational, nonconviction market can inflict severe financial pain on those
who are too stubborn to stand aside and wait for clear signs of conviction.
Point 16 highlights a balance period which was again "tipped over"
by a failed auction. After six days of overlapping value, bonds opened
higher (out of balance) but failed to follow through. Price returned to
value and the market broke to the downside on the next day.
Point 17 is yet another outstanding example of the importance of
known reference points. After breaking below the non-conviction region
designated by Point 16, the market came into balance just above the long
term lows created at Point 5. Sellers were unable to generate continuation below the 89-06 low, which attracted the responsive buyer. Bonds
closed in the upper half of the range on this day, signalling the potential
formation of finger term selling excess. Note, once again, that the
dynamic outside day was sparked by a failed auction.
Region D (Figure 4-101) Region D provides several additional examples of
why it is so important to be selective in your trading during bracketed
conditions. Points 18, 19, 20, and 21 show dynamic outside days—two
buying and two selling—occurring within a 10-day period. If positioned
the wrong way, each could have dealt a serious financial blow. However,
note that all four were preceded by the characteristic clues that often
signal their formation: (1) overlapping value/balance, and (2) an auction
failure.
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Long-Term Auction Failures An auction failure, for any timeframe, occurs when a market auctions above or below a known reference point
and fails to follow through. Day Timeframe Trading detailed the forces
that contribute to an auction failure and the characteristics of the rejection that often follows. The principal difference between a day and
longer-term auction failure lies in the magnitude of the tested reference
point and, therefore, the magnitude of the subsequent rejection.
In Day Timeframe Trading, we described the implications of an auction failure—swift rejection and the opportunity to secure good day
timeframe trade location during a day with the potential to generate significant price movement. We also mentioned that longer timeframe auction failures are usually followed by ensuing activity of greater
magnitude. Suppose that a market auctions below a low that has held for
several months but fails to attract new business. The ensuing reaction
caused by the auction failure will often involve all timeframes and continue in the opposite direction for days, weeks, or even longer. Traders
who are aware of the longer-term reference points that exist in the
marketplace are better prepared to secure good longer timeframe trade
location in the event that a failure should occur.
The daily bar chart in Figure 4-102 illustrates two good examples of
auction failures occurring in the Treasury bond market. The boxed area
designated by point 1 highlights the activity leading up to an intermediate-term auction failure that occurred on February 21. Figure 4-103
expands the boxed area to include the daily Profiles for February 9
through 22. After aggressive other timeframe selling activity on February
9 and 10, the bond market came into balance, as is evidenced by the
development of six days of overlapping value. On the 21st, Treasury
bonds opened above the intermediate term bracket and attempted to
auction higher but failed to generate continuation to the upside. Traders
were alerted to the potential for an auction failure, because the test above
the balance area failed to attract new, initiative buying. In addition, a
narrow initial balance indicated the possibility for a Double-Distribution
Trend day. Shorts entered during the B period selling-range extension
offered good day, swing, and intermediate-term trade location.
Point 2 in Figure 4-102 identifies an auction failure following a
probe below a longer-term reference point. And, as would be expected,
the subsequent activity is of much greater magnitude. On November 25,
1988, Treasury bonds recorded a long-term low at 86-09, forming longterm excess. After rallying to as high as 91-21 in late January, bonds
eventually traded back down and approached the 86-09 excess on March
21,1989—some four months later. On the 21st, price auctioned down and
stopped precisely at 86-09. The selling probe failed to stimulate new activity, and the same responsive buyers were there quickly to buy below
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longer-term value. In this particular case, the long term auction failure
sparked the beginning of a major longer-term buying trend.
To experienced traders, known reference points serve as checkpoints
on the "market map." By observing market behavior at key locations, it
is possible to determine the market's directional conviction before opportunity has slipped away.
Long-Term Short Covering and Long Liquidation
We discussed day timeframe short covering and long liquidation in Section L The same forces that cause short covering and its obverse, long
liquidation, are also present in the longer timeframe. After a sustained
down trend, for example, the "anxiety" level of participants who have
been short for an extended period of time often begins to increase as
their profits grow. Should something trigger covering, the ensuing rally
could last for several days as traders scramble to buy back their short
positions. Such swift buying can easily be interpreted to mark the end of
the trend or even the beginning of a new trend in the opposite direction.
However, if the buying is not accompanied by continuation and elongated Profile structure, the cause is probably short covering. Short covering is a result of old business covering positions placed with the original
trend, not by new initiative buyers. The resulting Profiles tend to be
short and narrow, often developing into the familiar "P" formation, indicating a lack of facilitation with the other timeframe buyer.
Figure 4-104 illustrates the beginning of long term short covering in
soybeans that was sparked by a selling auction failure on January 26,
1989. Following a 70 cent ($3,500 per contract) down trend, sellers auctioned price near the longer-term 740 lows (Figure 4-105) and were confronted by the responsive buying that commonly occurs at longer-term
reference points. This "knee-jerk" type of buying, combined with the
seller's inability to extend price below 740, triggered a wave of aggressive buying that eventually developed into a Double-Distribution Buying
Trend day.
The rally on January 26 put sellers of all timeframes in a tenuous
position. Imagine having the longer-term foresight and discipline to
build up a 60 or 70 cent gain in a trade, only to watch the market reclaim
20 cents in just a few hours. Or even worse, suppose that you sold into
the trend late and had gains of only a nickel, and then suddenly found
yourself 15 cents "underwater." In the face of a move as dynamic as that
which occurred in soybeans on the 26th, it is likely that many traders
exited in order to conserve gains or to limit loss.
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Once you have been forced out of a market by such a violent move,
it is difficult to muster the confidence to place a new trade. However, it
is during times like these, when market confidence is lowest, that some
of the greatest opportunities are created.
When a market begins to move counter to the major auction, what
is most important is not a lone day's structure; rather, how successful the
market is at moving counter to the trend. The initial day of counteractivity may show directional conviction, but are subsequent days facilitating
trade and exhibiting follow-through? In other words, "Is the market
doing a good job in its attempts to go that way?" If not, the activity may
be due to long-term short covering (or long liquidation).
Figure 4-104 shows the soybean rally on January 26, as well as the
Profiles for the next seven trading days. After the strong rally, January 27
and 30 developed overlapping value areas just below the upper distribution of the 26th. If the soybean market was truly as strong as it had appeared to be on the 26th, these balancing days would have developed
closer to, or even above, the January 26th 768 highs. February 1 and February 2 did manage to auction higher and establish value above 768.
However, after soybean buyers had gained 30 cents in just one day, four
more days of work netted only 91/2 cents more. In addition, the fourth
day (February 2) closed on its lows below the January 26 highs. Figure
4-104 illustrates the selling that continued through February 6. By the
9th, soybeans were again trading near the 740 lows.
If you look at January 26 through February 2 in isolation and without the benefit of hindsight, the short-term trend does appear to be up
and higher value is developing. However, by "overlaying" the activity of
each day onto the previous day (beginning with the start of the rally), a
different picture begins to form. In Figure 4-106, we have combined the
individual day timeframe Profiles into a Long-Term Profile.
Figure 4-106 shows the gradual development of longer-term value
in the soybean market, beginning on January 26 and running through
February 9. These particular Long-Term Profiles were formed using the
price/volume data from the Liquidity Data Bank, although they may just
as easily be formed using TPOs. The number of Xs at a given price represents the volume that occurred at that price, relative to the volumes occurring at all other prices traded during the period selected. Thus, the
Long-Term Profile for the January 26-31 period (four market days)
shows the greatest value (volume) building around 760. In addition, we
have drawn a line separating trade above and below 768, the January 26
high. Remember, the salient feature to observe in order to identify short
covering in any timeframe is continuation. Any activity above the high
for the 26th is indicative of buyer continuation.
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Through February 1, soybeans auction higher and begin to build
value above 768. However, continuation remains low relative to the magnitude of the initial rally. By February 2, there has been no further buyer
follow-through, relative volume is beginning to decline above 768, and
most notable, a "P" formation is beginning to form. In effect, longer term
buying auctions are stalling, thus creating the noncontinuation structure
found in day timeframe short covering. Higher prices are cutting off activity as old business has covered their shorts and new buyers have not
entered the market. This is the first long-term structural indication of
poor buyer continuation. The buying in the soybean market, in this case,
was likely longer term short covering, not healthy new initiative buying.
Applications Suppose that you are one of the traders forced out of the
market by the covering. It has only been a few days, and the memory of
the swift rally is no doubt still fresh in your mind. If your intent is to
reestablish your short position, by February 3 the Long-Term Profile provides some of the longer term information you need in order to enter the
market:
1.
2.
3.
Risk is identified. If the soybean market returns up to trade
above 7771/2 (7774), it is most likely caused by the actions of
new, initiative other timeframe buyers. Thus, shorts should be
exited if price returns above 7771/2.
By February 2 and 3, buying auctions are subsiding as the
short covering diminishes and control reverts back to the other
timeframe seller. This transition phase is evidenced by the return of value below 768.
If the short covering is genuine, then soybeans should auction
down to "take another look" at the 740 lows.
At the right side of Figure 4-106, we have created a sequential Profile in which each time period represents a day (instead of half-hour auctions). This longer-term Profile clearly exhibits the similarities between
day and longer-term short covering. The quick initial rally in "V period
is followed by weak buying-range extension attempts. Short covering activity wanes and the seller resumes control in "8" period, eventually filling in the lower half of the Profile.
Corrective Action
Most great scientific discoveries are brought forth by a creative individual who looks at something old in a new and innovative way. Often
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using the same information that others have studied and researched for
years, the inventor simply sees the data in a different light. It is easy to
become entrenched in a mode of thinking or behavior. By locking our
minds into a single mindset however, we often fail to question what we
think are the obvious answers.
Before we enter our discussion, take a minute to write down your
first reaction to the following questions:
1.
2.
What do we mean when we say that a market needs to correct
itself (assuming that the current auction is up)?
What forms can this corrective action take?
A common dictionary definition of the term "correction" is
counteraction. For something to be corrected, an opposite action must take
place. If your thinking is locked into the generally accepted definition,
you might conceptualize a correction to be a situation where the market
auctions lower after a sustained rally, resulting in lower prices. Or, in a
larger timeframe sense, you may see a correction as a gradual sell-off
resulting in several days of lower prices. The point is, a typical
"stimulus" response to the question "what is correction after an up auction" is often simply that price needs to move lower. We, however,
define correction as "counteraction." When viewed as counteraction, you
will begin to see that corrective action can take a more subtle, and perhaps more powerful, form.
Traditionally, a correction after an up auction is assumed to be selling, or profit taking, that results in lower prices. This is not always true.
Even though there are sellers in the market covering longs after an up
auction, price does not necessarily have to fall For example, a market may
open higher and sell off all day, resulting in higher prices, higher value
and a higher close. On such a day, correction can still be taking place
even though lower prices are not evident.
This sort of correction occurs when old buyers sell, taking their
profits at the same time new buyers are just deciding to enter the market.
Thus, responsive selling (profit taking) is met by initiative buyers entering new positions. If the initiative buying is strong enough, price may
remain higher despite old business liquidating their original positions.
Remember, however, that when the responsive seller is able to exert
more influence on price than the initiative buyer, the up auction may be
over (refer to Bracketed Markets in Chapter 3).
The Function of Corrective Action Corrective action serves several
purposes. First, it allows for profit-taking—a vital ingredient in maintain-
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ing a healthy market. Profit-taking eases the anxiety level of the market.
Naturally, traders with well-placed trades often build up high levels of
anxiety about being able to keep their profits. The way to reduce this
worry and nervousness is to lock in your profit—to sell if price has been
going up or to buy if price has been going down.
More important counteraction also serves as a test of the strength of
the buyer (or seller). If a correction is occurring in an up auction and the
market still manages to establish higher value, then the underlying
market conditions are very strong. A textbook example of such corrective
action is provided by Treasury bonds in Figure 4-107.
Following a higher opening, traders holding longs were given
ample time to sell all they wanted. The resulting selling-range extension
and Normal Variation selling structure suggests that this is exactly what
happened. Although lower prices were not the result, this selling is
nonetheless a "counteraction" to the buying that had been occurring over
the previous three days. Reviewing the Treasury bond activity prior to
August 30, excess was created on August 25, which ultimately marked
the beginning of an up auction. As the bar chart windowed inside Figure
4-107 shows, the buying auction continued with a break-out above a previous short-term high at 85-11. On August 30, the market opened above
value and attempted to trade lower most of the session (until J period).
However, the resulting value area and close were actually higher than
the previous day. As the activity of subsequent days proved, within the
sell-off of August 30 was the well-disguised correction for which alert
buyers had been waiting.
Corrective action is important to the health of a trend. The fact that
corrective selling attempts occurred at the same time value was being
established higher indicated that the bond market was exceptionally
strong. Old buyers had ample time to liquidate their positions at a
favorable price, and new buyers had plenty of opportunity to place longs
with good day timeframe trade location. Conventional traders relying
mainly on price might not have recognized the correction, and instead
reacted to the sell-off after the open by entering short positions. As Figure 4-107 shows, any short positions on this day soon became losing
trades.
Whether talking about corrective action or any other natural market
function, it is important to keep in mind that the most obvious behavioral clues, such as lower prices, are not always available. On August
30, creative, open-minded traders probably recognized that price did not
have to go lower for a correction to take place.
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Summary Being able to identify corrective action without the benefit of
an obvious price break or rally requires a level of creativity that can only
come from the trader who is willing and able to look at the same information from more than one angle. Objectivity stretches far beyond this
one isolated instance, however. Futures trading presents us with a formidable variety of such situations every day. As we gain more experience and draw closer to the levels of Proficient and Expert, our goal
is to begin to consistently see the unusual—to develop the open-mindedness that allows us to identify and take advantage of the unique trading
opportunities that arise when the market deviates from the norm.
Long-Term Profiles
The truth knocks on the door and you say, "Go away, I'm
looking for the truth," and so it goes away.
From Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, by Robert Pirsig
In today's complex world, we are continually confronted by the everchanging demands and influences of society. It is difficult to remain
cooly objective in the face of the shifting images produced by public
opinion, the media, and noted financial experts. Occasionally, everyone
gets caught up and loses sight of the "big picture"—whether it be in
one's profession, family life, or trading. In such cases, it is easy to miss
the proverbial forest for the trees, to tell truth to go away when it should
be as obvious as a knock on the door.
How many times have you gotten so involved with the individual,
day-to day auctions that you lost sight of the real market? When you
focus on the individual "trees," you lose the longer-term big picture.
What is needed is a consistent method of recording the longer-term auctions so that they can be observed objectively. A Long-Term Profile
simply plots greater units of time in relation to price in order to form a
long-term version of the day timeframe Market Profile.
The salient concept behind the Long-Term Profile is the fact that the
principles of the market's auction process apply to all timeframes, from
the shortest time period to the longer-term auctions. Just as each day's
Profile is composed of a series of half-hour auctions, a week-long Profile
would be composed of five-day timeframe Profiles. It follows then, that a
Long-Term Profile develops the same structural manifestations of market
activity, such as gaps, brackets, trends, high and low volume areas, excess, and tails.
Shown in Figure 4-108 are a typical day timeframe Profile, a 10-day
"Swing Profile," and a one month Long-Term Profile. Notice the striking-
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ly similar characteristics. To make the distributions appear more generic,
the individually lettered TPOs have been replaced with common "Xs,"
Using Long-Term Profiles The main strength of the Long-Term Profile
lies in the clear definition of brackets and the migration of value. It not
only provides a visual picture of the longer-term structures of the market
but also enables you to easily monitor elements that signify change. By
identifying changing conditions through the Long-Term Profile, longerterm traders are prepared to act in the early stages of opportunity.
Theoretically, if a Long-Term Profile was "accumulated" indefinitely, the ultimate result would be a giant, normal distribution curve
that is of little value to anyone. Thus, to use the Long-Term Profile effectively, you need to begin building the Profile when a significant longterm change has occurred, such as a long-term high or low. As you
witness significant market changes that influence your particular
timeframe, you might consider a "running Long-Term Profile" starting at
the point of change in order to better evaluate continuation. When the
market enters a new period marked by confirmed long term change, you
should begin a new Long-Term Profile. It is wise to keep your past Profiles as well in order to keep track of long-term reference points that
might have an affect on future auctions.
The Long-Term Profile in Action We have illustrated the similarities
between the day, swing, and longer timeframes throughout the book. In
this section, we present an ongoing analysis of a Long-Term Profile for
the Japanese yen during the first few months of 1989. The aim is to demonstrate how the Long-Term Profile accurately pinpoints the key longerterm reference points that traders commonly attempt to glean from a
daily bar chart. In addition, we show that through the added dimension
of time (TPOs), the success of the longer-term auction is easily discernable
through a Long Term Profile.
This period in the yen is particularly useful, because it also illustrates how markets evolve from trend, to bracket, then back to trend
again (see Trending versus Bracketed Markets in Chapter 3). The example displays the usefulness of the Long-Term Profile during both types of
market conditions.
The analysis is segmented into two regions. Each region is accompanied by a Long-Term Profile and the daily bar chart for the corresponding period of time.
Region A (Figures 4-109 & 4-110) Region A displays a longer-term selling
trend that began with a break-out of a short-term bracket and then
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slowed when the market eventually came into balance near the ,7600
level. Point 1 in the bar chart shows several volatile but basically overlapping days occurring in the .8000-.8100 region. Point 1 on the LongTerm Profile vividly depicts the bracket resulting from this balancing
process. Notice how the Long-Term Profile displays the bracket in a
well-defined high volume area bound by longer-term tails (points la and
lb). Just like a day timeframe Profile, high volume represents acceptance
and serves to attract price. The low-volume extremes indicate strong
responsive other timeframe presence at the bracket top and bottom.
The yen broke below the bracket with the sharp selling gap denoted
by point 2. The gap is represented on the Long-Term Profile by the single
prints directly below the bracketed region at point 1. (This particular
Long-Term Profile assumes that some degree of trade took place and
therefore records "single prints" in the area of the gap.) The excess
created by the gap gave other timeframe sellers the confidence they
needed to initiate the selling trend denoted by point 3. During a trend,
the Long-Term Profile exhibits relatively low volume and elongated
structure. In the bar chart, the trend is witnessed by the steady progression of lower prices.
After another selling gap at point 4 (the gap is less evident through
the Long Term Profile, because the yen had actually traded in the region
of the gap four days earlier), the yen entered the second balanced area
(point 5) evidenced by a high-volume region in the Long-Term Profile.
This particular bracketing phase was caused by central bank intervention
to slow the U.S. dollar's rise (which had a supportive affect on the yen).
Note, however, that the long-term point of control continued to fall
(points 5a, b and c in the Long-Term Profile), indicating the long-term
seller remained in control and was gradually establishing lower value.
While strong excess above the bracket is shown by the Long-Term Profile
through the gap and accompanying low volume at point 4, the lower
extreme of the bracket does not display the aggressive rejection indicative of a high-confidence low.
Region 8 (Figures 4-111 & 4-112) The Long-Term Profile in Figure 4-112
displays the entire down auction for February 15 through May 24.
Readers should note that the price intervals used are now tens instead of
fours so that the selling auction can be represented in its entirety on one
page. At point 6 in region B, the yen gapped below the bracket established at point 5, reigniting the strong selling auction and confirming the
control of the other timeframe seller. After a short term balancing period
at point 7, the long-term selling trend resumed as other timeframe sellers
auctioned price substantially lower. Much like a Trend day, when the
long-term trend denoted by point 8 was underway, the Long-Term
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Profile never showed a significant accumulation of volume at any lone
price. The trend is obvious in the bar chart. Two "acceleration" selling
gaps at points 9 and 10, present in both the bar chart and via the low
volume areas in the Long-Term Profile, illustrate just how quickly this
market is auctioning through time.
Summary The Long-Term Profile vividly illustrates how the auction
process is the same in all timeframes. Just as changes in other timeframe
control are evident in day timeframe auctions and structural development, the Long-Term Profile reveals other timeframe activity in a big-picture sense through the evaluation of high- and low-volume areas.
Special Situations
A high school teacher tells the story of a frustrating day in his career. He
was lecturing on the bravery of the American soldiers during the fight
for independence. On this particular day, he became quite dramatic and
descriptive, vividly portraying the battle fields and the courage of our
forefathers. He described the freezing cold winter, the meager rations,
and the eloquent words of Washington that kept the men's spirits high.
The teacher was trying to give his students a feeling for what it was like
to fight for one's country, the self-sacrifice that led to our freedom from
England so many years ago.
The class was nearing its end when a student raised his hand.
"Yes," the teacher said.
"Will this be on the test?" he asked.
The teacher was trying to give his students an understanding of the
cost of freedom, but the boy who raised his hand was so worried about
what he had to know for the test that he missed the point entirely. The
student wanted to be given the answers. He did not want to have to
actively think for himself. By focusing on what he thought he had to
know, he did not hear what the instructor was really teaching.
It would be nice to know the answers, to rely on a little certainty.
We would all be rich and successful if someone would come up with an
answer that would tell us when to buy and when to sell. But if we are
dogmatically given the answers, we will never truly understand their
roots. In the words of Heraclitus, "Much learning does not teach understanding." Many traders do not want to actively think and make their
own decisions. They want steadfast rules to guide their trading.
However, market-generated information, when observed and interpreted through the Market Profile, will at times reveal unique situations
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that offer a high degree of certainty. We call these high-probability occurrences "Special Situations." We will introduce six of these market-created
opportunities. They are:
1. 3-I Days
2. Neutral-Extreme Days
The Value-Area Rule
4. Spikes
5. Balance-Area Break-outs
6. Gaps
There are no guarantees, but one of the comforts of a Special Situation is the identification of a mechanical trade—a trade which almost has
to be done (under the right market conditions). And, while the limited
studies that we have performed reveal encouraging results, it is important to note that the success of a Special Situation trade lies in the
trader's understanding of the market conditions influencing that trade.
3-I Days
Probably the best known Special Situation is the 3-I day. A 3-I day is
characterized by an initiative tail, TPO count and range extension. Thus,
a 3-I buying day would show an initiative buying tail, initiative buying
TPOs and initiative buying range extension. Figure 4-113 displays a 3-I
Buying Trend day in Soybeans (TPOs always favor the trend).
Over a large sample size, the trading session following a 3-I buying
day should open within value or higher. Thus, traders holding longs
placed within the previous day's value area should have an opportunity
to exit within the same region (the opposite applies to a 3-I selling day).
In sum, 3-I days often provide an opportunity to hold a highly leveraged
position while incurring minimal risk.
We conducted a limited study evaluating the opportunity embodied
in 3-I days by observing their continuation into the first 90 minutes of
the following trading session as well as through to the day's close.
Specifically, we recorded whether the subsequent day's trading took
place at prices better than, within, or worse than the previous day's
value area. For example, if the day following a 3-I Buying day opened
higher, then activity was given a "better" reading for the initial 90
minutes of trade. Conversely, if the session following a 3-I Buying day
closed below the previous day's value area, then it was given a "worse"
reading in the "Next Day's Close" category. For purposes of the study,
we also examined 2I-1R days—days possessing a responsive buying tail
instead of an initiative buying tail (Figure 4-114). The results, compiled
from Treasury bond data over the June 24,1986, to May 29,1987, period
are shown below.
The results suggest that, over the period studied, 3-I and 2I-1R
structure identified relatively low-risk trading opportunities with astounding reliability. We note, however, that these findings are derived
from one market studied over a limited period of time. Other markets
behave differently, and all markets change over time. A few of the significant findings are highlighted below.
1.
2.
3.
In 94 percent of the days following a 3-I day, the market
traded at prices better than the previous day's value area
during the first 90 minutes of trading (higher on 3-I buying
days and lower on 3-I selling days). This figure was 71 percent
following 2I-1R days.
In every case the market allowed time for a trader to exit trades
without loss. However, it is important to note that in a few cases
the opportunity did not last for long.
Some 59 percent of the days following a 3-I day closed at
prices better than the previous day's value area, while only 3
percent closed worse. In all, 97 percent of the days following a
3-I day closed within or better than the previous day's value
area. For 2I-1R days, this figure measured 82 percent, with 18
percent closing worse.
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A 3-I develops when three specific factors indicating a day's attempted direction—tails, range extension and TPOs—all point the same
way, When these three elements are generated in unison, they alert the
trader to the potential for a high probability trade, a trade that almost
has to be done,
Neutral-Extreme Days
A Neutral day indicates day timeframe balance and is characterized by
range extension on both sides of the initial balance. In a sense, both other
timeframe participants are active in a day timeframe "vertical tug-ofwar/' If the market closes near the middle of the range, then control is
even. If, however, the close occurs on one of the day's extremes, there is
a clear "victor" and the following day is likely to open in the direction
of the closing activity.
To test this Special Situation, we studied Treasury bond activity
from June 24, 1986, to August 12, 1987. Like the 3-I day, we evaluated
Neutral-Extreme days for their continuation into the first 90 minutes of
the following session, and also through to the day's close. Over the yearlong study, the continuation properties of the Neutral-Extreme days
were almost as impressive as those represented by 3-I days.
In 92 percent of the cases studied, the market traded within or
above the previous day's value area during the initial 90 minutes of
trade. Sixty-four percent of the time this activity occurred above the value
area during a Neutral day closing on the highs, or below the value area
on a Neutral day closing on the lows. These figures dropped to 73 percent and 45 percent, respectively, when compared to the following day's
close.
In terms of trading applications, suppose that Neutral structure
develops, and it is apparent that the market will close near the highs. A
long placed within the value area will usually offer good trade location
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into the following day. In the majority of cases, you will have time to
monitor early activity for continuation during the next day. If directional
conviction reverses, 92 percent of the time you will have an opportunity
to exit your long within the previous day's value area.
Again, we note that that these findings are derived from one market
studied over a limited period of time. Other markets behave differently
and all markets change over time.
The Value-Area Rule
We have mentioned many times the slowing properties of volume. Unless something significant has changed, price movement will often slow
upon reentering an area of previously accepted high volume, as the
market spends time trading there again.
The value area represents the range where the greatest volume of
trade took place in the day timeframe. If the market opens outside the
value area on the following day, then the previous day's value area has
been rejected by other timeframe participants. Due to the presence of the
other timeframe participants who caused the initial rejection, the top of
the previous day's value area generally provides support against price
probes back down into value, and the bottom of the value area will offer
resistance against auction attempts to the upside. However, if price should
be accepted (double TPO prints) within the previous day's value area, there is a
good possibility that the market will auction completely through that value area.
We have deemed this Special Situation the "Value-Area Rule."
Entering an area of established value represents a test of the
market's most recent assessment of value. If the test results in acceptance,
it is only logical that market participants will conduct trade throughout
that region of value. For example, in Figure 4-115, the soybean market
opened below the previous day's value area, reentered value and
proceeded to trade completely through it, closing on the high.
Monitoring the market's close after value has been penetrated and
price has auctioned all the way through is a subtle nuance of the Value
Area Rule. If the market opens lower and trades up through the previous
trading session's value area, a close on the highs is an indication of
market strength (just as a close on the lows below the previous day's
value area after a higher open is a sign of market weakness). On the day
following our soybeans example in Figure 4-115, the market had to trade
higher to find sellers and cut off buying.
The Value-Area Rule does not suggest that every time the market
pierces the bottom of the previous day's value area (from below) you
should blindly buy. It is equally important to objectively evaluate overall
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market conditions and specific circumstances before employing a Special
Situation trade. The following considerations should be taken into account before executing a Value-Area Rule trade:
1. Distance from Value The closer a market opens to the previous day's
value area, the greater the chances of it penetrating and traveling
through that value area. The logic behind this lies in the concept of
market balance. A market that opens within range or value is in relative
balance, thus perceptions of value have not changed significantly, and
there is a good probability that trade will be conducted within the same
value area. Conversely, if a market opens away from accepted value, it is
out of balance. Therefore, the market is less likely to return to trade in
the previous day's value area, since the forces that caused the imbalance
have altered the underlying condition of the market. We caution, however, that if such a break-out of balance should be rejected by responsive
participants, the return to value could be sudden and forceful, to the
point that price auctions straight through the value area and completely
through the previous day's range.
2. Value Area Width Narrow value is a sign of poor trade facilitation and
lower volume. Because volume slows price, narrow value areas are more
easily traversed than wider, high-volume value areas. Therefore, the
Value-Area Rule carries a higher probability when price enters a narrow
value area.
3. Market Direction The direction of the current longer-term auction has an
obvious influence on the momentum, or strength behind the value area
penetration. When price auctions up into value during a buying trend,
for example, the chances for continuation are much better than if the
market were in a downward trend.
Summary If a trader enters a Value-Area Rule trade without evaluating
other market conditions, the probability that price will trade all the way
through the value area is little better than a flip of a coin. The power of
the Value-Area Rule lies in your interpretation of surrounding market
conditions. Through an understanding of the confluence of balance,
value area width and market direction, you can identify the situations
during which the Value-Area Rule offers a high degree of reliability.
Spikes
A "spike" is generated when price trends swiftly away from established
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value during the last few time periods of a trading session. Specifically, a
spike begins with the time period marking the break-out For example, in
Figure 4-116 the S&P market broke away from value during N period on
" May 5. Therefore, the spike's range extends from the top of N period
(311.00) down to the day's low at 308.00.
Ordinarily, a break-out from value can be monitored for continuation in following time periods. However, when it occurs at or near the
end of the trading day, the crucial element of time (Price x Time • Value)
is absent. Thus, the trader must wait until the next day to judge the price
movement for follow-through and conviction. Where the market opens
and subsequently builds value relative to the previous day's spike sends
clear signals regarding the underlying directional conviction of the
market.
Acceptance versus Rejection Whenever price moves quickly away
from value, it takes time to validate the new levels. If price subsequently
slows, allowing volume to "catch up" and TPOs to accumulate, then
value has been accepted at the new price levels. Thus, a market that
opens within a spike created during the previous day indicates confirmation of that area. The price spike is also accepted if the following day
opens beyond the spike—above a buying spike or below a selling spike.
An open in the direction of the spike indicates the probe is not yet over.
The market will likely continue to auction in the direction of the spike,
seeking new value.
Conversely, a spike is rejected if the subsequent trading session
opens in the opposite direction from the spike. For example, after a
buying spike, an open below the base of the spike would constitute rejection of the upward price probe.
Openings Within the Spike An opening within the spike indicates
that the market is balancing. Thus, two-timeframe, rotational trade will
likely develop within or near the spike's range for the duration of the
day. In Figure 4-116, for example, the S&P market opened at 308.20 on
May 8, 1989—within the 308.00-311.00 selling spike created on the previous trading day. The market then balanced, confirming the previous
day's probe to lower value In a second example in Figure 4-117, the
S&P opened at the bottom of the May 2 selling spike. Price auctioned
higher and found resistance near the spike's highs (311.00), providing
several opportunities for alert traders to place shorts with good day
timeframe trade location.
On a side note, during days that open and accept value within a
spike generated on the previous day, we use a variation of the Range
Estimation rules (introduced in Section I) to estimate the day's range.
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Normally, the entire previous day's range is used to estimate the current
day's range potential. In the case of an open within a spike, however, the
spike is treated like a "new day." Thus, when estimating the range on a
day that opens within a previous day's spike, we use the length of the
spike as our estimate, not the whole day's range. In Figure 4-117, for
example, the spike on May 2 extends from 311.30 (the top of the breakout period) to 309.30, a range of 200 points. The following day recorded
a range Just one tick short of 200 points.
Openings Outside the Spike Whenever a market opens outside the
previous day's range, the market is out of balance. The same general rule
applies to openings beyond the spike's range, but the magnitude of the
imbalance varies depending on where the market opens relative to the
direction of the spike.
Bullish Openings An open above a buying spike signifies a market that
is extremely out of balance—initiative buyers are in obvious control.
Ideally, a trader should seek to place longs near the support offered by
the top of the spike. In Figure 4-118, crude oil opened above the price
spike on the 3rd and established substantially higher value. The opportunity to secure excellent trade location for longs was created when B
period met resistance at the 20.15 spike top. Be aware, however, that if
the market should auction down into the spike, thus negating its supportive top, price could move very quickly.
When the market opens above a selling spike (rejects the spike), sentiment is still bullish for the day timeframe, but for different reasons.
This sort of conflicting activity often occurs when price has "gotten
ahead of the market," inviting the responsive participant to auction price
back into previously perceived value. A case in point is crude oil activity
following a selling spike on May 8. On May 9, crude oil opened above
the 8th's 19.36-19.60 selling spike (Figure 4-119). After auctioning down
three ticks and finding strong support at the top of the spike, the market
auctioned higher for the remainder of the day.
Bearish Openings When a market opens below a selling spike, day
timeframe sentiment is extremely bearish, as is the case with Crude Oil
in Figure 4-120. When Crude Oil opened below the spike, traders were
alerted that the previous day's selling spike was leading value, The eventual development of a selling Trend day exhibited the clear acceptance of
lower prices. An open below a buying spike represents rejection of the
spike and is also bearish for the day timeframe, but not to the extent of
the scenario outlined above.
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Spike Reference Points During the trading session following a price
spike, the spike's extremes often provide useful day timeframe reference
points (Figure 4-121). After a higher open, for example, auction rotations
are often supported by the spike's top. Similarly, the bottom of a price
spike offers resistance on days that open lower. However, it is important
to note that the spike extremes are only valid reference points for the
first price probe into the spike. If the market returns to test the spike
several times in the same half-hour time period, then the chances are
good that price will eventually auction through the spike extreme. An
additional test into the price spike in a subsequent time period would
create double TPOs, in effect establishing value within the spike. In
crude oil on the 8th (Figure 4-120), double TPO prints above the 19.98
spike bottom would negate its reliability as a resistance level.
Balance-Area Break-outs
Imagine a large stone precariously balanced on a mountain peak. In a
gale force wind, the stone might come loose and tumble down the mountainside. When it falls, it falls quickly in one direction. If the wind is less
forceful, the stone may rock to one side and then tumble in the other
direction. A balanced market acts in a similar fashion. And, financially
speaking, a market that is breaking out of balance can be just as
dangerous as a falling rock.
The identification of a balance area depends largely on your
timeframe. For example, a ledge (Section I) may constitute a balance area
to a day trader. To a swing trader, however, a balance area might be five
days of overlapping value. A long-term trader might consider a major
bracket to be a balance area. When something upsets the balance, price
moves are often sudden and forceful.
Balance area break-out strategy is straightforward—go with the
break-out. Thus, if price is accepted outside the balance area, place trades
in the direction of the new activity. In Figure 4-122, Treasury bonds had
recorded basically eight days of overlapping value within a relatively
well-defined balance region spanning from 97-03 to 98-16. On April 9, a
narrow initial balance forming near the short-term bracket low alerted
traders to a potential Double-Distribution Trend day. When C period
broke below the balance-area lows set on April 3 at 97-32, traders should
have entered short positions. Buy (exit) stops should have been placed a
few ticks above the point of break-out, for a price return into the balance
area would indicate rejection by responsive buyers.
Occasionally, the market "rocks" one way, then breaks-out in the
opposite direction. This sort of activity often occurs when the locals or
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shorter-term traders auction price beyond a known reference point (in
this case a balance-area high or low), to see if there is new activity to
sustain the price movement. If there is no response, then the opposite
participant can enter the market with confidence, driving price with
strong directional conviction. On February 6 in Figure 4-123, price auctions below the three days of overlapping value in the S&P market. Since
the rule of this Special Situation is to go with the break-out, traders should
have been short when D period auctioned below 297.20. When no follow-through developed and price traded back into the balance area,
however, shorts should have been exited at minimal loss. With the
knowledge that there was no activity below the lows, traders should
have been prepared to buy a break-out to the upside, which occurred on
the following day at 300.40. A balance area break-out is a trade you ''almost have to do." Risk is minimal and profit potential is very high.
In hindsight, a balance-area break-out trade looks like such an easy
trade to make. However, when you have spent the last few days watching price move sideways, it is not so easy to enter the market initiatively.
It feels as if the trade is late, for technically, better trade location could
have been secured on previous days. In reality, a break-out is usually the
start of a much bigger move, and trades placed with the initiator are
ultimately early. Taking advantage of these market-created opportunities
is essential to gaining the confidence and experience that is vital to becoming a competent trader.
Gaps
The last Special Situation we will discuss is the gap. A gap is an opening
outside the previous day's range, signifying a market out of balance. A
gap is created when the other timeframe perceives price to be away from
value and enters the market aggressively, forming excess in the form of
an ''invisible tail." The salient feature of a gap (that holds) is that it
should offer significant support or resistance to price, and it therefore
stands as a valuable guide for day traders and an important reference
point for longer-term traders.
Gaps fall into three broad categories: (1) Break-away gaps, (2) Acceleration gaps, and (3) Exhaustion gaps. Briefly, a Break-away gap occurs
when the market is in the early stages of a long-term trend. This sort of
gap is fueled by new, initiative other timeframe participants possessing
strong directional conviction. An Acceleration gap develops within a
trend and reaffirms the conviction and strength of the trend's direction.
Finally, an Exhaustion gap will sometimes mark the end of a trend. In
the final stages of a buying trend, for example, more and more par-
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ticipants are gradually convinced that the market is indeed trending.
Eventually, practically everyone is a buyer. The final consensus is so
strong that the market gaps higher as the last doubters jump on board.
Once everyone is long, however, there is no one left to buy and the trend
is effectively over.
Whether or not a gap is a Break-away, Acceleration, or Exhaustion
gap will greatly influence the likelihood that it will hold. However, what
we are concerned with here is the Special Situation properties of gaps.
Thus, the following discussion treats all gaps the same by evaluating
each in the present tense.
Day Timeframe Significance of Gaps Generally speaking, most gaps
are eventually filled—some on the same day. In the day timeframe, if a
gap is going to be retraced (filled) by responsive participants, the rejection will usually fill the gap within the first hour. The longer a gap holds,
the greater the probability of its continuation.
The Special Situation rule for trading gaps is to trade with the initiative activity that caused the gap, placing stops at the point where a price
rotation would effectively erase the gap by trading completely through
it. Figure 4-124 represents an ideal gap trade in crude oil. Shorts placed
in the first half hour of trade with the gap lower and subsequent OpenDrive activity resulted in good trade location during a selling Trend day.
Shorts should have been exited if price had filled the gap by trading back
above 19.98.
Not all gap days are quite so ideal, however. Like the Value Area
Rule, there are outside factors that influence the way a gap should be
traded. In Figure 4-125, the Swiss franc opened 26 ticks below the previous trading session's low. Such an extreme gap should have alerted
traders to the possible entry of the responsive buyer. The farther away
from the previous day's range a market opens, the greater the likelihood
that the market has temporarily overextended itself. When this occurs,
the responsive participant will often narrow the gap by auctioning price
towards the previous day's value. When a market gaps significantly
away from the previous day's range, the prudent action is to monitor
activity soon after the open before placing trades. In the case of the Swiss
franc in Figure 4-125, if the responsive buyer enters, traders should wait
until the initiative seller reappears, monitoring the gap for support.
When responsive activity waned and two-timeframe trade developed
with the downward rotation in A period, shorts should have been
entered and buy stops placed at 59.87 (the gap erasure point).
Again, successfully using Special Situations involves a synthesis of
market understanding, time and experience. It is difficult to explain the
ideal point at which a gap trade should be entered. In many cases,
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blindly placing a trade in the direction of the gap will eventually result
in a successful trade. However, without monitoring early activity, a trade
placed too early might suffer undue exposure if "price temporarily auctions against the position.
Starting out with poor trade location can be both financially and
mentally taxing, often to the point that the trader is forced to exit what
would have developed into a good trade. Our Swiss franc example
provides a good example of how this can occur. A trader who sold immediately with the selling gap could easily have been forced out of his or
her short position, given that the Swiss auctioned against the position for
better than the first half hour of trade. Traders who anticipated responsive buying after such a sharp break from value would have probably
waited for a return of the selling auctions before entering shorts. With
the responsive buying over (at least temporarily), traders placing short
positions would have had more confidence, and therefore a better chance
at completing a successful trade. In this case, notice that both scenarios
would have ended in similar trade location. The difference between the
two trades is the level of accompanying anxiety.
Gaps do not hold every time. On some occasions, the buying or
selling auction that produced the gap will fail, inviting responsive participants to return price to previous value. When this occurs, however,
there are usually clear signs that the gap will be erased. In the case of the
gold market in Figure 4-126, gold gapped below the previous day's
range. After a quick test to the downside, the responsive buyer entered
and drove price up through the gap and into the value area of April 28.
All of this activity occurred during the first half hour of trade. Traders
who sold with the selling gap should have covered when gold auctioned
above 379.60 in Y period.
Gaps are created by aggressive other timeframe activity. They are
significant reference points as long as they hold. If, however, responsive
participants overcome the initiator and return price through the gap,
then conditions have changed and the gap is no longer a significant trading guide.
Summary
Special Situations are not fail-safe answers, but they do offer a trader
some degree of comfort and security. Still, your imagination should not
stop at these limited examples. By incorporating the different methods
for evaluating directional conviction and performance, a trader can identify other circumstances that offer high leverage and low risk. To put it
simply, the big picture is made up of many small, more specifict com-
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ponents. By synthesizing these factors into a more all-encompassing market understanding, you will increase your chances of success. Consistently successful trading is the result of a unique combination of
opportunity, experience, and market understanding.
Markets to Stay Out Of
Special Situations are useful for identifying trading opportunities that
possess a relatively high degree of security. On the opposite end of the
spectrum, but no less important, are those times when one simply should
not trade at all. A trader who forces a trade when there is no real opportunity in the market is like a basketball player who forces a shot when he
is off-balance or heavily guarded—the chances of scoring are low. A
good basketball player who does not have a clear shot will generally not
shoot the ball. Similarly, experienced traders who do not see a clear market opportunity do not "force" the trade. The harder you have to look,
the lower the potential for a good trade. In such a situation, it is best to
stand aside and wait for an opportunity to develop.
The following discussion covers four market situations which signify the existence of relatively little trading opportunity:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Nontrend Days
Nonconviction Days
Long-Term Nontrend Markets
News-Influenced Markets
Nontrend Days
The most obvious market to stay out of is the Nontrend day. On a Nontrend day, the market is not facilitating trade with any participant and
opportunity is low, for the day's range is small and activity is scarce.
Figure 4-127 shows a typical, low-volume Nontrend day that occurred in
bonds on May 8,1989.
Nonconviction Days
A less obvious type of low opportunity market is a Nonconviction day.
Structurally, a Nonconviction day often appears to be no different than a
Normal, Normal Variation, or Neutral day. However, the Nonconviction
day exhibits none of the other timeframe directional conviction that these
standard day types typically display—there are no recognizable reference points for a day timeframe trader. During a Nonconviction day, the
open is often of the Open-Auction variety, occurring within the previous
day's value area. Price rotates randomly back and forth with very little
confidence throughout the day.
In hindsight, a Nonconviction day's range can be misleading, for it
appears as if a number of good opportunities should have been
generated as the day progressed. In the thick of such low-confidence activity, however, traders are provided no real reference points by which
to base their trading decision. Consequently, traders often end up forcing
trades that just aren't there.
Figure 4-128 provides a good example of a Nonconviction day in
the gold market. After an Open-Auction, gold spent the remainder of the
trading session auctioning back and forth with no apparent directional
conviction. The completed Profile looks like a Normal Variation day, but
at no point was there a clear indication of other timeframe presence. On
such a day, it is relatively easy to lose objectivity due to the lack of
market sentiment. When a Nonconviction day develops, it is best to stay
out of the market altogether, for any trading decision would be based on
conjecture and random price rotations.
Long-Term Nontrend Markets
On a larger scale, longer-term activity may at times exhibit a lack of
directional conviction. While longer-term traders should not have positions in the market, there may still be plenty of opportunity for day
timeframe traders. In Figure 4-129, for example, crude oil exhibited extremely erratic behavior for several weeks, auctioning back and forth
with no longer-term conviction. Although this was clearly a market to be
avoided by longer-term traders, the resulting price spikes and gaps offered several high-percentage trades for day timeframe traders.
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News-Influenced Markets
The final "stand-aside" scenario is a day prior to a major news announcement. Generally, many other timeframe participants have
balanced their positions prior to a scheduled news announcement, Thus,
the day or two just prior to the news is often left in the hands of the
locals and other shorter-term traders. The resulting low volume environment can be dangerous, for rumors and predictions can cause price to
rotate wildly.
Summary
Staying out of a market is more difficult than it sounds. When there are
few clues regarding directional conviction, it is easy to lose objectivity.
Sitting in front of a quote monitor all day without placing a trade requires a tremendous amount of patience. Even the most experienced
traders begin to hear that little subjective voice: "It has got to break.
TPOs favor sellers . . . sell it." When the market has no confidence, stand
aside until new activity develops. Not only do bad trades lead to losses, but
they also keep you from entering a good trade when opportune conditions finally arise.
News
The release of a major news announcement (such as Gross National
Product, Merchandise Trade, or Producer Price Index) often creates a
violent "knee-jerk" reaction by the market's participants. Trying to anticipate the news item and how it will affect market sentiment is a highly
dangerous gamble. Once the news information is out, price moves so
violently and with such speed that it is nearly impossible to make a rational trading decision (or locate your trade where you want it). This is
due to the manner in which the news is generally announced. The initial
number usually causes a sudden price reaction, depending on early estimates that form market opinion. Soon after the actual announcement,
however, there is often a revision of previous periods' figures, which can
cause further erratic movement. Finally, the components that make up
the economic figure come out, often causing yet another reaction to the
number. All of this activity takes place in an extremely short-period of
time The resulting sporadic price spurts can wipe out a substantial
amount of capital in minutes.
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Long before a piece of news is ever announced, the market's participants form expectations that begin to influence market activity. The
consensus opinion (available in Barron's and various news sources) is, in
effect, built into the market prior to the news announcement If a trader
is aware of the market's preconceived notions regarding the pending
news, then he or she can evaluate the true strength or weakness of the
market by observing the reaction to the actual numbers.
Let us look at a real market example. Before the Producer Price
Index (PPI) was announced on May 12, 1989, the bond market was expecting a number between +.06% and +.08%. Due to bearish expectations, bonds had been in a short term down auction, as evidenced by
point 1 in Figure 4-130. The direction of the major auction, however, was
up (point 2). The actual number released was +.04%, which indicated
lower inflation than expected, a bullish sign for bonds. The market immediately rallied some 16 ticks (Figure 4-131). Shortly after, it was announced that an increase in oil contributed +.07% of the figure. Thus,
had it not been for oil, the PPI would have actually been negative. This
extremely bullish news caused bonds to rally nearly two full points to
90-26. Many market participants lost money because they had anticipated a bearish number. It is extremely difficult to trade during the
volatility created by a news announcement.
Traders could have gained valuable information on the 12th if they
had entered the market prepared with the following information:
1. Direction of the major auction.
2. Known reference points.
3. Market expectations for scheduled news announcement.
The direction of the major auction was up, despite the short-term
selling rotation due to bearish expectations. The market had broken
below several days of overlapping value (not in view) on May 9, establishing two important reference points: the 9th's high (89-16) and the
point at which the market broke lower (89-04). As previously mentioned,
the consensus opinion was that the PPI should have been between +.06%
and +.08%. When the number was announced as bullish for bonds, the
market auctioned through the first reference point (point 1 in Figure 4131) easily, and slowed at the highs for the 9th (point 2). The subsequent
announcement of the PPI's components was also bullish, and the market
exploded to the upside. Despite the recent down auction, bonds had no
trouble auctioning two points higher on May 9. It became apparent that
underlying market conditions were strong.
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The following list displays the basic news/market sentiment
relationships, and our previous bond example is illustrated by the third
scenario (denoted by an asterisk). The major auction was up, the news
announcement was bullish and the market reacted by auctioning substantially higher in the day timeframe. These circumstances indicate a
market that is strong and continuing higher.
Summary
Instead of getting emotionally and/or financially whipped back and
forth along with the market during a major news announcement, traders
can use the news to their benefit by following these steps:
1. Balance your inventory so that you hold no position going
into the scheduled announcement (except for long-term traders).
2. Make note of market expectations, recent market direction and
salient reference points.
3. Monitor activity after the actual number is announced to determine underlying market sentiment (use above reference chart,
if necessary).
4. Monitor ensuing activity near recent reference points for confirmation or rejection of apparent conviction.
5. If an opportunity is present, enter trade. Place stops at previous
known reference points—exit if conditions arise that contradict
market sentiment.
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Beyond the Competent Trader
Let us look back to David, the aspiring pianist and his path to becoming
an expert musician. When he reached competency after years of learning
and practice, he had mastered the technical and mechanical aspects of
playing the piano. Yet, he had not transcended the physical notes on
paper to become an expert. Similarly, a good market understanding is
only part of the equation for achieving expert results. Many traders who
develop a solid academic background still do not make enough money to
justify being in the market.
To progress beyond the average, beyond the middle of the bell
curve and into the upper extremes of excellence, you must achieve selfunderstanding. To become a proficient trader, it is necessary to become
so intimate with the mechanical aspects of the market that they form a
holistic pattern in your mind. Only then can you begin to understand
how your own personal strengths and weaknesses directly influence
your trading performance. As Adam Smith said in his book The Money
Game, "If you don't know who you are, the market is an expensive place
to find out."
We have reached the end of the Competent chapter. The study of
the basic theories behind evaluating market-generated information
through the Market Profile is now complete. We have covered a tremendous amount of information in a relatively short time. So before we
move on to the next step in the learning process, take some time to
review and solidify the concepts we have discussed. Observe the market.
Test and apply your market understanding. Build the experience that
will clear the fogged comers of the window to reveal the big picture.
T
hroughout the book, we have followed the five levels of skill acquisition through a college student named David, After hearing a moving
rendition of Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata," David decided he wanted
to learn to play the piano. He started the learning process by studying
purely derivative sources—taking lessons and reading books on music
theory. After becoming familiar with the basics, David began to practice
while continuing his derivative learning. In other words, the instruction
and mechanical knowledge acted as a catalyst, allowing David to actively
apply and develop the theory into actual musical ability. He was building experience.
Finally, after years of practice, lessons, and study, David
transcended the realm of derivative knowledge. He simply knew the
theory and technique backwards and forwards. When David sat down at
the piano, the fingering had been committed to muscle memory and the
notes and time signatures were so fully assimilated in his mind that he
no longer actively thought of them while playing. David had reached the
level of proficiency that allowed him to express his thoughts and feelings
through an instrument as though it were an extension of his emotion.
Becoming proficient in any endeavor is a highly personal process.
Think about something you excel in, something that has become an instinctive, intuitive ability. Perhaps it is an athletic talent such as golf or
tennis. Maybe you have a knack for fly fishing, sailing, or chess. What311
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ever it is, remember the way you felt when you finally performed the
activity perfectly.
Suppose that after years of working on your golf swing through
lessons, Arnold Palmer books, and hours at the driving range, you play
the perfect round. A proficient golfer intuitively combines course conditions, wind, the ball's lie, stance, club selection, position, and the actual
stroke to achieve the perfect shot. Imagine the exhilaration of having the
ability to make such a shot 70 times in one round. A perfect round
transcends all derivative learning. It is the culmination of knowledge and
experience. When all the factors come together, the golfer can "feel" the
shot. Developing and learning to recognize that feeling of excellence is
the result of a synthesis of derivative and empirical knowledge—of
academic learning and hands-on experience.
A futures trader who has progressed beyond competency also
begins to intuitively feel when conditions are right for a successful trade.
Again, this intuitive ability is fostered by more than just a sound fundamental base. Through market experience, you will begin to recognize
certain situations where all the concepts and theories come together and
you "feel" the trade. Once you have reached this stage of market understanding, the difficult part becomes learning to trust your intuitions—to
trust the feeling of opportunity. In other words, a proficient trader must
begin to learn and develop self-understanding.
In the final stages of learning, experience becomes the primary
teacher, and introspection the vehicle for excellence. In this chapter, we
will discuss the importance of self-understanding and its relation to becoming an expert trader.
The Results Equation: Market Understanding x
(Self-Understanding+Strategy) = Results1
The results equation is an oversimplified formula for achieving successful trading returns. It is built upon three concepts: market understanding, self-understanding, and strategy. Up to this point, we have
covered the large volume of theory that leads to a sound market understanding. In addition, we have discussed many trading strategies based
on specific structural features, such as opening types and Special Situations. We have also examined the strategic application of more general
concepts such as other timeframe control and trending versus bracketed
markets. These structural strategies arise from an understanding of the
J. Peter Steidlmayer and Kevin Koy, Markets & Market Logic, The Porcupine
Press, Chicago, 1986, p. 5.
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marketplace, but they are useless if a trader does not have the confidence
to implement them.
A truly effective strategy must incorporate your strengths and
weaknesses into a comprehensive "game plan" that uses your abilities to
their fullest potential. The pivotal element in turning market understanding into a practical, successful trading strategy is self-understanding. You may have developed a thorough understanding of the
marketplace and a reliable academic trading strategy, but without an understanding of yourself, you will not be able to effectively employ that
strategy. Your trading results will not rise above the bell curve average.
And, as we have mentioned before, the "average" market participant
does not make money. To become proficient, you must begin the ongoing process of learning to understand yourself.
Self-Understanding: Becoming a Successful Trader
Most of us do a great deal of soul-searching before we choose a profession. Whether we realize it or not, in this process we consider not only
the intellectual and academic requirements of the profession, but also
how that vocation meets our own psychological and emotional needs.
What does it take to become a surgeon, and can I deal with patients that
die on the operating table? Do I want to work for someone else, or do I
want to call my own shots? Do I want to manage people, or would I
prefer to do research on my own? Do I want a profession that is steady
and predictable, or would I prefer to have each day be entirely different?
Additionally, we also consider whether or not we possess the innate
skills that can spell the difference between success at one profession over
another. Do I have the precision hand-eye coordination to become a
professional baseball player, the mathematical mind to work as a
physicist, the writing style to become a reporter, or the mechanical aptitude to become a mechanic or electrician? These basic skills are usually
identifiable early on. When choosing a profession, we need to consider
whether we possess the skills required to succeed at that profession.
While there are many ways to develop these skills through education,
coaching, and experience, the seeds must already be planted if they are
to grow.
Most individuals have never given much thought to the underlying
skills necessary to become a successful trader. Consequently, when they
begin to trade they wander into a very dangerous area totally unprepared. The personal characteristics that generally accompany success
in the futures market include maturity and stability, a strong sense of
self-competitiveness (as opposed to team-competitiveness), the inner
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strength to maintain contrary opinions, an orderly mind, and the ability
to make a decision and act with confidence.
The ultimate decision to become a professional futures trader involves a melding of your personal skills with your financial and emotional needs. Many view futures trading as a glamorous profession in
which it is possible to make a lot of money with very little effort. Few
professions are truly glamorous, however, and to the most successful futures traders, the greatest reward is often emotional, while the financial
reward is regarded as secondary. If this comes as a shock to you, consider our Olympic athletes. Although a few are compensated well
through sponsorships, the majority of these individuals are in the athletic
profession first for the emotional value—for the inner feeling of accomplishment that comes with mastering a sport, with winning the
game. The financial rewards are secondary and flow naturally as a consequence of their success. And this, it seems, is where most futures
traders err. They are drawn to, and in a sense intoxicated by, the lure of
the financial reward, while never giving a second thought to the emotional or intellectual requirements of success.
Most traders, like drunk drivers, should be taken off the streets.
They are trading under the influence—under the influence of the many
advertisements that blanket the pages of trading magazines and
newspapers with claims and near promises of quick, easy success. Each
month, a new guru is touting a break-through system that turns a computer into a black box gold mine. Enter the orders and scoop out your
profits. These glittery ads spark interest and induce sales, but they are
misleading.
In contrast, how would you respond to an advertisement that read:
"Wanted: People willing to undergo specialized training in how
to succeed. This program will require rigorous intellectual
schooling, intensive introspection geared toward identifying invisible blocks to success that are trapped within you, and then
a long behavior-modification process necessary to overcome
these inner obstacles. At the same time, you will undergo a
daily on-the-job training program. Requirements for this training program are as follows: intellectual ability, a meaningful
amount of capital, and the willingness to immerse your entire
self-esteem into the program. It is anticipated that you will lose
most, if not all, of your capital and will be forced to rationalize
the whole experience to maintain your self-esteem. Although it
takes a minimum of two years to reach a moderate level of
success, soon after this initial training program the majority of
you will drop out because it is too hard, takes too much time,
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requires too much flexibility, is not well defined and there are
not enough concrete rules. Of the few that remain, less than 10
percent of you will enjoy the feeling of exhilaration that goes
with completing what you set out to accomplish. Like the artist
who only gets better, your newly acquired skill and experience
will be just the start of a process that can continue for a
lifetime. You will be equipped to succeed at your profession.
You will be an entrepreneur."
This imaginary advertisement could apply to virtually any serious
professional venture. It is not meant to convince you not to trade. Rather,
it is meant to dispel the glamorous illusions that surround the field of
futures trading. You have already experienced the difficulty of learning
the vast amount of theory that makes up market understanding,
Developing self-understanding is just as difficult—perhaps more so, for
self-understanding cannot be learned from a derivative source.
Self-Observation
The Profile graphic enables a trader to objectively organize and observe
the market's behavior, which leads to the development of market understanding. Similarly, self-observation is essential to developing self-understanding. One of the most effective methods to observe and reflect on
your actions is to keep a trading journal.
For a trading journal to be useful, you must be honest and consistent, writing down thoughts, feelings, and surrounding circumstances
before, during, and after each trade. Observing how your emotions affect
the outcome of each trade can reveal your propensity for risk, your intuitive skills, the affects of outside circumstances, and a myriad of other
factors that contribute to self-understanding.
Eventually, you will begin to identify behavioral patterns and the
types of events that directly affect your trading performance. Perhaps
you are overly affected by conflicting news sources and professional
opinions. Maybe you find it difficult to trade against the crowd and are
easily shaken from your convictions by contrary opinion. For example,
you may notice that every time you make a trade based on a fundamental source, you exit too early and have little confidence in the trade. If
this is the case, it may be best to simply not expose yourself to outside
opinion. Or, perhaps you want to be a longer term trader, but find you
have trouble sleeping during nights when you are carrying outstanding
positions. By keeping a trading journal, you can begin to understand
how you affect your trading results.
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The Whole-Brained Trader
Although we still know relatively little about the vast capabilities of the
human brain, research has revealed that the brain is divided into two
separate hemispheres, each having very different functions. Bennett W.
Goodspeed describes these differences in The Tao Jones Averages:
. . . our left hemisphere, which controls the right side of the
body, is analytically oriented. It reasons logically and sequentially and is responsible for our speech. It is adept at math,
accounting, languages, science and writing, like a computer, it
is programmable and is nurtured by our highly analytic educational process. The properties of the left brain are not unique;
man has developed computers that can duplicate those functions.
Our right-brain hemisphere, which controls the movements
of the left side of the body, is unique. It operates non-sequentially, is intuitive, artistic, has feelings, is gestalt-oriented (sees
the forest and not just the trees), and controls our visual perceptions. Since it is nonverbal, it communicates to us through
dreams and 'gut reactions.' The right hemisphere provides and
stores all of our nonverbal experience—a vast amount of input,
certainly much more than we can verbally retrieve.2
The difference between right and left brain function explains a great
deal about the diversity of interest and talent in the human species.
Every individual has a different right/left brain balance, resulting in a
vast array of mental and physical abilities. Someone who is very left
brain oriented might become an excellent scientist or administrator,
whereas a right-brained person would more likely become an artist or
playwright.
The division of right- and left-brain thinking is readily apparent in
the futures market as well. The technicians who analyze historical data,
economic figures, charts and other technical information are primarily
left-brain oriented. Conversely, floor traders who rely on instinct are acting according to right-brain intuition, or "gut feelings." Unfortunately,
attempting to trade with only the left or right hemisphere will result in
an imbalance and poor results. The most successful traders are able to
achieve a balance between the analytic left brain and the holistic right
brain—they are whole-brained traders.
2
Bennett W. Goodspeed, The Tao Jones Averages, Penguin Books, New York,
1983, pp. 22-23.
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The Left Hemisphere
The left hemisphere is highly attuned to time, rules, and facts. It has been
shown that this half of the brain, while very precise, is capable of
processing only small amounts of information at a time. Therefore, attempting to trade with only the left, factual portion of the brain is very
limiting—it incorporates only one viewpoint. Yet, there are times, such
as in preparation and planning for the day, when it is necessary to be
very exact and calculating. To grasp the facts, you must often consider
them very rationally and individually. Still, the left hemisphere is seldom
able to successfully coordinate the vast amounts of conflicting information disseminated by the market each day.
Imagine yourself sitting in front of your quote monitor, observing a
trading day when the markets seem to have gone haywire. You murmur
in a barely audible voice, "I cannot believe what is happening in the
market today." Your left brain is whispering to you. The analytic
decisions you made based on rationally processed facts have not been
confirmed by the market. By immersing yourself in technical indicators
and scientific study, the real, evolving nature of the marketplace slipped
right past you.
The Right Hemisphere
The left brain stores knowledge. However, only through fine-tuned interaction with the intuitive right hemisphere can you successfully synthesize that knowledge and develop understanding. The right
hemisphere is generally known as the creative, emotional half of the
brain. It is dominated by free association and holistic processing of mass
amounts of information.
A trade based on pure emotion may have an even lesser chance of
success than a trade based on calmly calculated fact. Nonetheless, once
the market opens, it is impossible to analyze the vast numbers of interacting elements that are combined, absorbed, and reflected by the market
at any point in time. It takes a careful balance of academic knowledge
and intuition based on a larger understanding to trade successfully.
Combining the Two Hemispheres
It is possible to mentally "change gears" in order to use both hemispheres of the brain. Bach has its clear advantages and powers. After the
market's close, for instance, the analysis of the day's activity and
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preparation for the following trading session are best accomplished by
using predominantly left, analytical talents. On the other hand, when the
market is in full gear, the fast-processing, free-associating right brain
should have more control. Ideally, we should strive to operate in a more
"central" hemisphere, freely calling on both sides of the brain to contribute when needed.
Neither [hemisphere] should be blindly followed, as to do so
would be to act in a half-brained way. Nor should we ignore
either, for each effectively represents half of our brain. By understanding both and being able to use the correct hemisphere
for the correct task, we can be more whole brained and effective in our decision-making.3
Recall our discussion of Bears' linebacker Mike Singletary in Section
I of Chapter 4. Between games, Singletary uses his analytical left-brain
skills to design a game plan and thoroughly understand the opposing
team's offense. When the game starts, however, he does not have time to
actively process the overwhelming amount of incoming stimuli. He then
operates in a right-brain dominated mode, relying on intuition and holistic pattern recognition to guide his actions.
Experts in any field, like Mike Singletary, make whole-brained
balance appear easy. This misconception is apparent to any trader who
has had a gut feeling about a trade or an opinion based on careful
analysis, only to see the market move in the opposite direction. Like any
worthwhile endeavor, whole-brained trading takes time, patience, and
experience to master.
You may come to realize that you are a predominantly right-brained
or left-brained person. This is the first step in achieving balance. By
knowing your left/right brain strengths and weaknesses, you can begin
to develop a trading strategy that best uses your individual talents.
Strategy
As we near the end of Proficient, we look at the role and importance of
strategy. Throughout the book, we have discussed many trading
strategies based on market structure. However, there is a difference between a complete strategy and just managing a trade. Individual trades
are guided by a set of rules based on market understanding. A complete
Bennett W. Goodspeed, The Too Jones Averages, Penguin Books, New York,
1983, pp. 49-50.
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319
trading strategy, on the other hand, is more of a holistic game plan, built
upon an infrastructure of market understanding, self-understanding and
structural guidelines.
Every trader has a different timeframe, different goals, and different
needs and emotions. Consequently, developing a strategy is a unique,
individual process in which we each mold our strategy to best use our
strengths and support our weaknesses. In this discussion, then, we focus
on the business aspects of strategy, purposely avoiding the more personal
elements of self-understanding.
A Business Strategy
There are many facets to running a business. You must first consider the
tangibles, such as capital, risk, cash flow, taxes, and other general expenses. Then, there is the upkeep and use of informational sources, basic
record keeping and performance evaluation/measurement Of equal importance are the intangibles, such as knowing your competition and the
role of time—both in managing your own time and introducing a new
product. Also within this category are qualities like dedication, daily execution, and overall strategic planning that are ultimately the driving
force behind any successful business.
Trading is a business. It involves the same tangible and intangible
elements of any business strategy. We will examine many of these crucial
areas, first from a general business perspective, and then within the context of how together they form a strategic trading plan.
Capital When running a business, two golden rules apply to capital: (1)
make sure that you are adequately capitalized to begin with; and (2) conserve it. A business that is undercapitalized is handicapped from the
start. A new venture must be able to absorb unexpected start-up costs, as
well as fund projects that may be important to longer-term survival
There are obvious costs to trading, particularly when one is just
starting out. It is critical that traders are adequately capitalized for their
style of trading. For example, day traders generally do not need to be as
highly capitalized as longer-term traders who hold positions overnight.
However, even a day trader needs enough capital to take advantage of a
market-created opportunity to "take a trade home" with minimal risk,
such as that which is often provided by a 3-I day.
Undercapitalization leads to "tick-watching." Traders who must
constantly worry about taking a loss are less likely to be objective in theninterpretation of the market and, therefore, how they manage their positions.
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Location Locating a business is similar to locating a trade. Where
would you prefer to build a gas station, on a four-way corner just off the
interstate, or somewhere between two traffic lights on a road divided by
a median strip? Trades, too, are located based on cost/revenue considerations. Where would you prefer to buy for a longer-term trade, near
the longer-term lows with strong apparent excess to lean on or somewhere in the middle of the longer-term range? A poorly located trade
suggests that you are assuming greater risk for less than optimal reward.
How do you achieve optimal trade location? Planning. Do your
homework, identify regions of potential good trade location afforded by
balance areas, and brackets, and then put your orders in ahead of
time. When you are in the thick of the trading day, the best trade location often looks like the worst at the moment it is reached (Remember,
the best trades generally fly in the face of the most recent activity). It
becomes extremely difficult to pull the trigger—to make the trade. That
little subjective voice begins to cloud your rational decision-making
ability to the point that you just sit there frozen, watching a good opportunity slip away.
Many times ideal trade location seems too far away for the market
to move in one day. Put the order in anyway. The anxiety that often accompanies such dynamic moves can keep you from entering the trade
unless the order is already in the pit. In addition, if the trade location is
truly ideal, then those prices will not be offered long enough to enter a
position unless you have already placed your order. Just as a good chess
player always plays several moves ahead of his opponent, playing ahead
of the market is what secures good trade location.
Timing Negotiating skills are an important part of business, and
patience is crucial to successful negotiation. For example/now and then
every business has to deal with its suppliers. Would you rather negotiate
when the product is plentiful or scarce The timing of your negotiations
often has a direct impact on the price you will pay.
Timing a trade is just as important as timing in a negotiation. Like
the business that waits until its supplier has excess, traders should
patiently wait for the market to demonstrate excess before they act.
Many traders had strong bearish opinions prior to the stock market crash
in October 1987. However, those who sold too early were forced out of
the market (for financial reasons) long before the global selling began.
Traders who are consistently too early need to be more patient in their
negotiations with the market.
Information Every business decision and every trading decision are
based on facts gleaned from market information. The car dealer only re-
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stocks his inventory if his information sources suggest that he will be
able to sell the new cars. His information tells him the size of the market,
the willingness of the consumer to buy, how many cars he should purchase from the manufacturer and what he should charge for his stock.
These same decisions must be made in any market.
Information influences virtually every aspect of a business strategy.
In a sense, your information sources are your eyes in the market. That is
why it is essential to trade based on reliable, objective information. Many
traders surround themselves with so many opinionated and conflicting
sources that their decision-making abilities are paralyzed. Hunk back to
Jim Kelvin, the currency trader introduced at the beginning of the book.
He knew that the yen was weak, based on purely objective marketgenerated information. Unfortunately, he also considered several other
conflicting technical and fundamental sources that made him doubt his
intuitive ability.
If conflicting sources are hindering your trade, eliminate them.
Good businesspersons will narrow their information down, select the
most reliable sources and get rid of the rest. Strearnlining your information helps you arrive at decisions faster and earlier.
Historically, the best and most profitable businesses have entered
their respective markets before all the information was available. They
saw an opportunity and acted on it before it became obvious and the
whole world jumped in. A successful trader does not wait until structure
has provided 100 percent confirmation. Identify the opportunity and
then do the trade.
Know Your Competition Perceptive businesses understand their competition and the kinds of responses to expect from them and devise their
strategy accordingly. What will the other players do if price drops too
low or rises too high? General Motors has a pretty good idea what the
Japanese car makers will do given any number of price-related decisions.
Such knowledge of participant behavior is applicable to trading as well.
Successful traders have a good inclination of how other market participants will react to a given change in price.
From a trading standpoint, one part of knowing your competition
should involve making a continual assessment of whether the other
market participants (your competition) are "too long" or "too short." For
example, if a market that had been in a sustained up auction suddenly
breaks in the day timeframe and stalls, creating a "b" formation, participants were probably too long. Through an understanding of the competition, you know that the activity was most likely a long liquidation
break, and the buying auction will continue. Every successful businessper-
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son and every successful trader understands the behavior of the other participants.
Know Yourself In addition to knowing your competition, you must
know yourself. What is it you do best? Under what conditions do you
find it difficult to be objective? There are many examples of businesses
that have grown very successful by identifying and concentrating on
their specific strengths, such as Midas Mufflers and McDonald's hamburgers. Learning to recognize, accept and work with your strengths and
weaknesses is perhaps the most difficult aspect of becoming an expert
trader.
Earlier in Proficient, we discussed the You portion of trading at
length. However, a derivative source can only offer suggestions and provide ideas for growth. Self-understanding must be developed through
continual self-observation and introspection. Keep a trading journal. Find
patterns of thought and circumstance that lead to successful trades and
actively incorporate those patterns into your trading strategy. Eliminate
negative influences that cause bad trades and promote irrational thought.
Self-understanding is an ongoing process essential to an effective overall
strategy.
Consistent, Daily Execution A healthy business turns out revenues
day after day. The old adage "successful trading is a lot of small losses
and a few big winners" is simply not true. It still may be that the really
big profits are made on a few trades, but the first goal is to see that the
overhead is covered on a daily basis. A lot of small losses actually contribute to the overhead. A proficient trader will generate revenues virtually every day.
Consistency breeds objectivity. Consistency produces cash flow and
takes care of current expenses, such as (in trading) office space, quote
equipment, medical insurance, and so on. Consistency also eases tensions, so that the business can operate from a clear state of mind, look
ahead, and plan expansion.
Inventory Both in a general business and trading, inventory management often spells the difference between success and failure. The goal, of
course, is to buy at the most advantageous price. And, like investing in
real estate, that generally means that you have to buy inventory when no one
else wants it, or else you do not get the ideal price. Similarly, a trader will
seek to initiate larger positions when the market appears to be near its
longer-term highs or lows. Price generally reaches a longer-term high
when the entire market is buying, and therefore when it is least popular
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to sell. Conversely, price reaches a longer-term low when the entire
market is selling and it is least popular to buy.
Keep in mind, however, that many traders lose a lot of money attempting to pick market tops and bottoms. Be alert to conditions that
create market extremes and place your positions just after the high or
low has been confirmed.
The handling of inventory varies from business to business, just as
traders handle their positions differently. For example, locals handle
their inventory much like football ticket scalpers outside the stadium or
the grocer in your local supermarket—high volume, low mark-up, the
less time spent on the shelves the better. Longer-term traders, however,
probably handle their positions with greater patience, much like a
jeweler and his diamonds.
There are costs associated with not having enough inventory as well
as costs of having too much. If you have no inventory (no positions),
your opportunity for revenue declines. On the other hand, if you carry
too much inventory, you may not have enough capital or space to take
advantage of new opportunities. In addition, as one's inventory grows
older, it may lose or gain value depending on changing market conditions. The overriding difference between most businesses and trading,
however, is that the futures market controls the price of your inventory.
You have less control over risk and opportunity and, therefore, must pay
much closer attention to your inventory and changing market conditions.
Risk Every good businessperson keeps a watchful eye on risk. This
means dedicating the majority of one's time and capital to playing the
short odds rather than the long odds, for the main objective is to stay in
business. This concept is well illustrated by a theme common among
sales organizations. Generally, the salespersons who continually seek the
big deals, hoping to hit the grand pay-off, invariably go broke. On the
other hand, the individuals who succeed are those who work on five or
six big deals, while spending the majority of their time on the 70 or 80
small accounts that provide consistent revenue. If a decision is made to
go after a big deal, it is generally only with a portion of the capital or
resources of the business.
As an example of how one might incorporate this concept into one's
trading strategy, consider the regulation of "maximum" trades (large,
longer-term positions). Suppose that part of your strategy is to trade up
to three futures at one time. If so, then perhaps you limit yourself to just
one maximum trade at a time. This way, you do not risk all of your
trading capital on "big deals" (this is just an example, not a specific
recommendation). Similarly, if your capitalization is lower, or if you
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Chapter 5
want to reduce the anxiety that often accompanies maximum trades, perhaps you elect to participate in a maximum trade using option spreads.
Trading requires continual risk evaluation. Like a credit policy at a
bank where overnight intermediate and long-term spending limits are
calculated precisely through conscious decisions, with each new trade
one must evaluate the accompanying risk.
Goals There are short-term goals as well as long-term goals. Good
businesspeople realize that long-term goals are achieved as a result of the
constant, cumulative meeting of short-term goals. Write down your goals.
Make them clear and concise and strive to achieve them through realistic
shorter-term check points. From time to time, review them and make
sure they still represent your current wants and needs.
Record Keeping and Performance All businesses keep records for
reasons more than satisfying the IRS. Records help a business remain
objective and realistic when evaluating performance. How productive is
your sales force? How well is the market responding to your advertising
and marketing? Is your overall strategy producing the hoped for results?
What is the bottom line?
Record keeping is equally important to trading. Records give you an
objective way to evaluate how your trading strategy is faring and
whether it is in need of change. Proper record management should tell
you more than if you are making money. It should reveal where your
trading revenues are coming from, what market conditions and trading
techniques are most profitable, whether you are meeting daily expenses,
and so on. The better your records, the easier it is to isolate the problem
areas, find solutions, and hone in on what you do best.
Dedication Dedication is one of the "intangibles," unique to each individual and therefore not easily measured or valued. Dedication is
doing your homework every day. It is keeping up your charts, getting up
that extra hour early to get a head-start on the markets, and putting in
that extra hour afterward.
Dedication is not just time and work, it is the heartbeat of a business. It is that personal element, the desire for personal achievement possessed by a handful of individuals. It is the driving force behind any
successful business. Just wanting to be successful is not enough, you
have to make it happen. True dedication involves paying a price... and there
is a price.
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325
Applications When dealing in the minute-to-minute or day-to-day
specifics of trading, it is sometimes difficult to appreciate the importance
of strategy. Many traders have spent thousands of dollars learning the
market and developing rules and guidelines for their trading. These aids
come in multiple forms, from the Market Profile to rigidly disciplined
trading models. Unfortunately, much of this knowledge and money is
wasted, unless it is also woven together with a comprehensive strategy
that takes into account those attributes that are important to staying in
business as a trader. In summary, we offer three very general steps to
getting started in developing your trading business.
Step 1: Accept and begin to view trading as a business.
Step 2: Develop a comprehensive strategy based on the concepts of successful
business management. To restate, every business—and trading is no exception—needs a healthy interaction of the following areas if it is to survive.
-
Capital
Timing
Location
Knowing Your Competition
Knowing Yourself
Consistency
-
Information
Inventory
Risk
Goals
Record Keeping/Performance
Dedication
This very "ideal" listing, collectively considered, forms the strategic
shell of trading survival.
Step 3: Formulate specific rules and "mini strategies" that will help guide and
mold your individual trades in order to meet the longer-term goals of your trading strategy. Unfortunately, we as humans cannot function purely on a
strategical level. We have to deal with facts, disappointments in our own
shortcomings, capital requirements, the day-to-day details of physically
and mentally entering and exiting trades, and so forth. Thus, once these
longer-term goals have been laid out, we can begin to outline a series of
shorter-term goals and trading disciplines to help us fulfill our longerterm strategy.
Figure 5-1 illustrates, in a very general sense, how one trader might
design the underpinnings of a business trading strategy. This figure represents a basic set of guidelines that begin to tie the strategy together.
Once these basic requirements are established, one must then fine tune
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327
them with yet additional rules, so that eventually a daily, trade-by-trade
application can be reached.
Summary
"The poor performance by most professional Wall Street investors is the result
of an imbalance . . . a lack of whole-brainedness."
From The Tao Jones Averages, by Bennett W. Goodspeed
Most traders eventually become competent, but few transcend the rules
and theories to reach proficiency. To progress beyond the average,
traders must learn to understand themselves—how their personal
strengths, weaknesses, and individual personalities affect their trading
results. On the other hand, some traders have a good self-understanding
but view their trading as a part-time endeavor or hobby. Trading is a
business, and to become proficient a trader must develop a business
strategy.
Successful futures trading is the result of a delicate balance between
derivative learning and experience, between analytical thinking and intuition, A proficient trader forms a trading strategy built upon an infrastructure of market understanding, self-understanding and structural
guidelines. He begins to intuitively feel when conditions are right for a
successful trade, balancing left-brain discipline with right-brain creativity. Strive to achieve balance—to become a whole-brained trader.
T
he knowledge that is gained from books and experience is an integral
part of becoming a successful trader, but the path to expert trading
begins within yourself. You must believe that you can reach your goals,
fulfill your aspirations. Mastering the academics is not enough. An athlete with average ability will be victorious over opponents of greater skill
if he believes he can be a champion.
Achieving the level of expert in any pursuit is a challenge that few
people attempt, for it requires complete dedication and determination.
To reach and maintain excellence, an individual must have a desire to
succeed that transcends personal sacrifice. Understandably, most people
are not willing to give up the diversity of their lives for a single all-encompassing goal.
Consider anyone that you perceive to be an expert in his or her
field. Olympic swimmers spend from four to six hours in the water
every day. Great composers and musicians have been known to practice
for most of their waking hours. Top salespersons work 12- to 16-hour
days. The best creative advertising personnel are always rethinking their
accounts, shaping and detailing new ideas. Any highly successful business exceeds the norm by going beyond the rules and calculative
rationality to the higher grounds of innovation and excellence.
Do you have what it takes to become an expert trader? We have
covered a tremendous wealth of material, from the market's smallest unit
329
330
The Expert Trader
to the importance of self-understanding—but the knowledge contained
in this book is only the beginning. A derivative source can impart all the
learning in the world, but again, much learning does not teach understanding. Benjamin Hoff put it wonderfully simply in The Tao of Pooh,
"Knowledge and Experience do not necessarily speak the same language
. . . there is more to Knowing than just being correct."1
In your pursuit of excellence, you may sometimes stumble and feel
the frustration of your mistakes. The challenge before you is not without
difficulties, but with the inner strength that grows from believing in your
potential, you can strive to soar beyond the average—feel the exhileration that goes with completing what you set out to accomplish. As you
continue to learn and build experience, remember that your newly acquired skill and understanding is just the start of a process that will continue for a lifetime.
1
Benjamin Hoff, The Tao of Pooh (New York Penguin Books, 1982), p. 29.
The value area represents the area of greatest trade facilitation and acceptance of value in the day timeframe and is signified by the price
region where 70 percent of the day's volume occurred. It can be calculated using either actual price/volume numbers or approximated by substituting TPOs when volume is not available.
Volume Value-Area Calculation
Figure A-l illustrates how to calculate the volume value area. First, identify the price at which the greatest volume occurred. Then, sum the
volumes occurring at the two prices directly above the high-volume price
and compare it to the total volume of the two prices below the highvolume price. The dual price total with the highest volume becomes part
of the value area. This process continues until 70 percent of the volume is
reached.
In Figure A-l, the greatest volume (22,168) occurred at 96-12. The
total volume for the two prices above 96-12 is 34,491 (Sum of Dual
Prices) and the two price total below is 43,773. Since the lower total is
331
greater, it Is added to the high-volume price as part of the value area.
The same process is repeated, comparing the next two lower prices (9615 and 96-16), to 96-10 and 96-11 again. The lower total is higher and is,
therefore, the next addition to the developing value area. This process is
repeated until the volume reaches 70 percent of the day's total volume.
Appendix 1
333
TPO Value-Area Calculation
The calculation of the TPO value area follows the same general steps as
the volume value area. First count the total number of TPOs, including
the single prints. Take 70 percent of this number to establish how many
TPOs approximate 70 percent of the day's volume Then, examine the
two prices above and below the longest line on the Profile, adding the
two with a greater number of TPOs to the longest line. Continue this
process until 70 percent of the TPOs are included.
Literature
Markets & Market Logic, Trading & Investing with a Sound Understanding
and Approach, J. Peter Steidlmayer and Kevin Koy, Porcupine Press,
Chicago, 1986. Introduction to theory.
CBOT Market Profile (Manual 1), A Time Distribution Analysis That Explains
Market Behavior, J. Peter Steidlmayer and the Chicago Board of Trade,
Chicago Board of Trade, Chicago, 1984. Out of press and available only
in photo-copy form. Basic theory and reference guide to using the Liquidity Data Bank.
The Profile Report, Results Through Market Understanding, Self Awareness
and Strategy, Dalton Capital Management, Inc., Chicago, established in
February, 1987. Monthly journal on market-generated education, research
and trading.
33$
338
Appendix 2
Applications Of The Market Profile, A Trader's Guide to Auction Markets,
Donald L. Jones, CISCO, Chicago, 1988. Concise reference guide to available literature, with direct applications.
Steidlmayer On Markets, A New Approach to Trading, J. Peter Steidlmayer,
John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1989. Steidlmayer background, some
theory and new concepts.
Courses on Audio Cassette
Operating In The Present Tense, Dalton Capital Management, Inc., Chicago.
Introduction to theory and applications. 71/2 hours, includes detailed
manual.
Beyond The Rules, Dalton Capital Management, Inc., Chicago. Advanced
course. 71/2 hours, includes detailed manual.
Recommended Reading
The Tao Jones Average, A Guide To Whole-Brained Investing, Bennett W.
Goodspeed, Penguin Books, New York, 1983.
A Whack On The Side Of The Head, How To Unlock Your Mind For Innovation, Roger von Oech, Ph.D., Warner Books, New York, 1983.
Mind over Machine, The Power of Human Intuition and Expertise in the Era of
the Computer, Hubert L. and Stuart E. Dreyfus, The Free Press (MacMiilan), New York, 1986.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
James F. Dalton
Jim Dalton is a senior vice president of Paine Webber, Inc. within the firm's
Managed Accounts Services Division. This is a unique industry position, involving management oversight of the Managed Futures Division as well as serving
as Product Manager for the Paine Webber ACCESS Program, a program that
provides professional money management and investment consulting services to
wealthy individuals and institutions. Mr. Dalton coordinates the selection and
implementation of both equity and futures money managers used by the firm's
broker consultants. He also serves as a Director of the Investment Management
Consultant's Association (IMCA) and has served on the IMCA Advisory Council.
Mr. Dalton's past experience includes more than 25 years in securities, options
and commodities. He began his career with IBM prior to entering the securities
business in the late 1960s. He served as Executive Vice President to the Chicago
Board Options Exchange, as well as President of J. F. Dalton Asssociates, a
futures commission merchant. Mr. Dalton also created the Consulting Services
Division at a national securities firm.
Eric T. Jones
Eric Jones is a vice president of PaineWebber, Inc. and Director of Product
Development for the Managed Futures Division. He is also Editor of The
Consultant's Eagle, an investment management consulting publication for
PaineWebber broker consultants. Mr. Jones is a Certified Investment Management Analyst and a member of the Investment Management Consultant's
Association.
Prior to joining PaineWebber, Mr. Jones was Director of Market Research for
J. F. Dalton Associates and later assisted Mr. Dalton in the creation
of the Consulting Services Division at a national securities firm. He is co-author of Hedging Foreign Exchange, Converting Risk to Profit
Robert B. Dalton
Robert Dalton is Assistant Editor for the Hendricks County Flyer, a freelance
writer and a student of the markets.
Index
A
Auction
day, 39
description of, 10-11
longer term, 39,204-220,265,270-272
process, 10-11
rotations (day timeframe), 94-106,
rotations (longer term), 178,204-216
"test," 105
Auction failures
as a reference point, 236
creation of excess, 237-240
longer term, 244-248
short term, 106-110
B
Balanced market, 56
Bracketed market
defined, 49-57
interpreting, 216-225,231-233,235
340
index
longer term profile, 264-272
reference points, 235-241
strategy, 231
trade location in, 220,224
Break-outs, 235-236,288-292
c
Capital, 319
Close
interpreting, 122,124
range, 16
Commercial activity
definition of, 144,146
interpreting, 144,146-159
Composite day, 185-187
Confirmed excess, 237
Continuation, 236,250
Corrective action, 258,259-262
Cti figures, 135-136,140-142,146-159
D
Day timeframe trading, 60-176
auction rotations, 94-106
conviction, 61
Day types
double-distribution trend, 22-27
examples, 19-32
neutral, 27,29-30
neutral-center, 29
neutral-extreme, 29,277
nonconviction, 302
nontrend, 27-28
normal, 20-21
normal variation, 22-23
trend, 22,24-25
Directional performance, 187-200
Effective and efficient markets, 110-111
Excess
confirmed, 237
day, 110-112
lack of, 241
longer term, 179-185
Exchange floor, 11,14
Extremes, 17,20,101
F
Failures, see Auction failures
G
Gaps
break-away, 292
day timeframe significance, 295,298
examples, 185,292,295-298,299
exhaustion, 292,295
out of balance, 240
I
Initial balance, 11,14,20
Initiative activity, 45-49,50-51
Inventory, 322
Island days, 179,181,182
L
Ledges, 133
Liquidity Data Bank, 135-162
342
Index
Locals
role, 11-14
behavior, 41-42
Location, 320
Logic (trading), 34-38
Long liquidation, 131-132
Long term
activity record, 204,205-214
auction failures, 244-248
auction rotations, 204-220
nontrend markets, 302-303
participants, 14
profile, 262-272
trading, 177
M
Market, 16-18,
Market-generated information, 8,33,272-273
Market Profile:
description, 8-9
structure, 11-16/102
Market structure, 34-38
N
Neutral day, 27, 29-30
Neutral-center day, 29
Neutral-extreme day, 29
News
influence on market, 304-308
news/market sentiment relationships, 309
Nonconviction day, 300-302
Nontrend day, 27-28,300,301
Normal day, 20-21
Normal variation of a Normal day, 22-23
O
One-timeframe buying, 103,105
One-timeframe selling, 105
Index
One-timeframe market, 98,100
Opening
description, 62-63
relationship to previous day, 74-94
types
open-auction in range, 70-71, 72
open-auction out of range, 71,73-74
open-drive, 63-65
open-rejection-reverse, 68-70
open-test-drive, 65-68
Opening call, 61-62
Other timeframe
activity, 15
buyer, 14
evaluating control, 38-45
role of, 17-18
seller, 14
P
Pattern recognition
day, 124-135
See also. Long term: profile
Point of control, 15,42
Price
equation, 34
purpose of, 17
rejection of, 15
role in the auction process, 10-11,20
Profit taking, 126
R
Random walk, 11
Range, 14
Range estimation, 74-94
Range extension
definition of, 14-15
use, 40,45-51,101,178-179
Reference points, 159,235-248
Resistance, 15,169-172
Responsive activity
343
344
Index
Results equation, viii, 312-313
Risk, 323
Rotation factor, 112-113,178
S
Selective trading, 237,241
Self understanding, 313-315
Short covering
defined, 126
day timeframe, 126-132
longer term, 248-257
Special situations, 272-310
Spikes
interpreting, 280-287
reference points, 287,289
Strategy, 318-319,325-327
Swing auction, 240
Swing profile, 262-264
Swing trade, 14
T
3-I day, 273-275,277
Tails
as excess, 111
definition, 15
longer term, 181-182
use, 19,40,45-51
Tick volume, 162
Time
role of, 34-38
use in evaluating participant control, 101-102
Timeframe
day, 11,60
other, 14
Timeframe transition, 102-103
Time periods, 11
Tuning, 320
TPO (Time Price Opportunity)
Index
definition, 11
use,
value-area calculation, 333
TPO count, 41-51,113
Trade location
in bracketed markets/ 220-224
in trending markets, 231
strategy, 320
Trading logic, 34-38
Trend day
double-distribution, 22-27
one-timeframe market, 97
standard, 22-24
Trending market
defined, 49-57
interpreting, 225-233
long term profile, 264-272
Trend tests, 142,145
Two-sided trade, 11,20
Two-timeframe market, 97-98,99
V
Value, 14,17,34
Value-area
definition, 15,136
calculation of, 331-333
placement, 188-198
use, 46,136,137
width, 198,201
Value-area rule, 278-280
Volume
concentrations, 142,159-160
dispersion analysis, 137-139
high and low volume areas, 159-173
Liquidity Data Bank, 135-162
long term relationships, 193,198
relative to value area width, 198,201-204
tick, 162
total, 136
use in measuring directional performance, 188
Volume value-area calculation, 331-332
345