Health e-Games Market Report
Transcription
Health e-Games Market Report
Health e-Games Market Report: Status and Opportunities BY Andy Donner, Douglas Goldstein and Julia Loughran 57 Article Contents 58 I. Introduction 58 II. Executive Briefing The Health e-Games Market Product and Services Key Conclusions 62 III. History of Health e-Games Exergames Brain Games Healthy Eating Games Condition Management Games Professional Training Games 73 IV. Market Drivers Social Media Drivers Health and Wellness Market Drivers Video Game Market Drivers 76 V. Health e-Games Market Profile Market Size Snapshot – Video Game Industry Market Size Snapshot – Health e-Games Health e-Games Categories Exergaming: $6.4 Billion Market Brain Fitness: $225 Million Market Healthy Eating Condition Management New Revenue Models for Healthy Eating and Condition Management Technology Platforms Market Profile Summary 82 VI. Investment Opportunities Venture Capital – Health e-Games Venture Capital – Casual Games Health 2.0 – Active Venture Investment and M&A Activity Specialized Health Management – a Rapid Growth Adjacent Sector Consumer Product, Media and Electronics Companies Health Plans – Driving Adoption and Development of Health e-Games 90 VII. Conclusion 91 VIII.Questions for Further Consideration 91 About the Authors 93 References 58 I. Introduction Video games have gained mass acceptance across all age demographics through the popularity of the Nintendo Wii, Konami’s Dance Dance Revolution, Nintendo’s Brain Age, casual games such as Sudoku, Diner Dash and many others. “Health e-games,” while a new term, have actually been on the market for more than 25 years, starting with the 1982 release of the Atari Joyboard, a precursor to the Wii Fit. Today, health e-games have captured the interest and attention of mainstream consumers, government agencies and various multi-national corporations outside of the gaming industry including Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, Unilever, Nobel Biocare, Nike and Apple. Healthcare companies are also becoming active in the health e-games market. Humana launched HumanaGames.com and Kaiser Permanente offers a series of health e-games like The Amazing Food Detective, which has won numerous awards for teaching children to eat healthier foods and increase physical activity. HopeLab, together with CIGNA, has distributed a cancer fighting game, Re-Mission, for teens worldwide, and it has been demonstrated to empower teens in their battles with cancer. Archimage, with a $9 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), has developed Escape From Diab and other games to help prevent obesity and manage childhood diabetes. These examples are just a sample of the more than 300 health e-games which are available across consoles (Wii, XBox, PlayStation), online, and increasingly on mobile devices. To qualify as a health e-game, the multimedia gaming experience must be fun and deliver health benefits. Health e-games are beyond simple entertainment because they involve health literacy, physical fitness, cognitive fitness, skills development and condition management. Above all else, health e-games are tools for behavioral change. For consumers, a change in behavior could mean regular exercise, stress reduction, smoking cessation, adherence to doctor-recommended medicine usage, weight management, healthy eating habits, or other positive lifestyle changes. Health e-games have been called many things in the past, including “games for health,” “active games,” “health games,” “exergames” and other variations. For the purposes of this report, we feel that “health e-games” best describes this multimedia gaming industry segment for several reasons. First, health e-games cover a broad spectrum, from casual brain games like Nintendo’s Brain Age to serious games like Pulse!!, a PC-based virtual training simulation for medical students. Second, the most effective games in this genre are simultaneously fun and healthy. Third, all games in this market segment have electronic elements and the “e” in front of e-games serves to clearly identify the multimedia electronic nature of these games. Non-electronic games, such as soccer, basketball or ultimate Frisbee, could be considered “games for health” but not “e-games.” The term “health e-games” communicates the key product attributes: electronic, interactive, fun and beneficial (i.e. healthy). II. Executive Briefing The Health e-Games Market Worldwide video gaming is a growth business with sales (hardware and software) of $42 billion in 2007, and estimated to eclipse $68 billion by the year 2012 according to a PriceWaterhouseCoopers industry report. Health e-games are a new and rapidly expanding market segment of video gaming that incorporates elements of three markets: casual games, serious games and exergames. According to the Casual Games Association, casual gaming is a $2.2 billion market composed of fun and easy to learn video games that can be played across mobile, PC, Mac and console platforms. The serious gaming market is estimated to be between $1.5 and $2.0 billion according to serious games expert Elaine Alhadeff. This market is focused on utilizing gaming applications to achieve benefits beyond entertainment, such as training, education and performance improvement across industries. Exergames, which involves digital interactive physical motion and fitness games, is a $6.4 billion segment and comprises the vast majority of the health e-games market. Residing at the intersection of the casual gaming, serious gaming, and exergaming markets, health e-games are estimated to be a $6.6 billion market segment within the $42 billion video gaming industry. 59 The $6.6 billion estimate reflects a bottom-up analysis detailed in the Market Profile section below. Health e-games leverage the easy-to-use, highly engaging and interactive nature of electronic gaming to increase health literacy, empower behavior change, and promote professional education. The health e-games market is comprised of four consumer categories and one professional, including: • Exergames (e.g. fitness, coaching, health promotion) • Brain Fitness (e.g. cognitive fitness, brain training) • Condition Management (e.g. diabetes, asthma, cancer, pain management) • Healthy Eating (e.g. weight management, obesity) • Professional Training (e.g. simulations for training surgeons, pilots, soldiers) Growth of the overall video gaming industry is expected to be significantly impacted by the non-traditional gaming markets which include serious games, casual games and health e-games. The growth of the health e-games segment is being fueled by two primary market forces: (i) the popularity and commercial success of Nintendo’s interactive exergames Wii and Wii Fit and (ii) the growth of the casual gaming market. In fact, Nintendo’s guiding corporate strategy driving their innovation is what their executives call “productive entertainment.” Productive entertainment is an experience that is fun, family oriented, socially connecting and delivers a benefit.3 The four consumer health e-game categories would fall within the definition of productive entertainment. • Wii and Wii FIT EXERGAMES: Nintendo reports that 29.6 million Wii consoles have been sold worldwide in just 19 months from the November 2006 launch through June 2008, equating to approximately $8.9 billion in sales assuming a $300 average selling price, or $5.6 billion annualized. Wii Fit sold 4.6 million units, or approximately $622 million, in the 7-month period December 2007 through July 2008 despite not being released into the United States until May 2008. Together, these exergaming products have generated approximately $6.2 billion in annualized sales for Nintendo and have forever changed the video gaming industry. The Wii is so popular there is a website, www.wiialerts.com, which alerts perspective buyers to Wii availability. •Casual Gaming: Another significant growth factor is the mass acceptance of casual gaming which is expanding the video game industry in new customer segments. In particular, casual games are unlocking market demand among women aged 30-50; driving a 20% annual growth of this $2.2 billion market. Nintendo’s Brain Age and Brain Training, casual games which are brain fitness health e-games, have sold 13 million units and generated approximately $260 million in sales over the 34 month period May 2005 to March 2008. Product and Services Health e-games include three primary product types: (i) video games, (ii) immersive learning simulations and (iii) virtual worlds. This report will primarily focus on consumer-facing video games and will largely omit discussions of professional-focused immersive learning simulations and virtual worlds, which are used for training, military preparation, 3D visualization of medical information and other instruction. Health e-games are presented to users through multiple platform types including consoles, computer, online, and mobile (e.g. iPhone, Nintendo DS and other mobile internet devices). More than 300 health e-games are currently offered across multiple platforms. 60 Key Conclusions Health e-Games Have Gone Mainstream Health e-games are gaining widespread acceptance across all age groups and customer segments. In the past few years, women Baby Boomers have readily adopted gaming largely due to the growth of casual gaming and also Nintendo’s strategy of targeting this traditionally under-served market segment. Pogo.com, a subsidiary of Electronic Arts which operates the largest community of casual gamers, reports that of its 18 million active users, 63% are over age 35 and 61% are women. While children and teens continue to enjoy Konami’s Dance Dance Revolution, today we find Boomers sharpening their cognitive skills by playing Brain Age while improving balance and strength with the Wii Fit. Meanwhile, seniors are enjoying virtual bowling and tennis from inside retirement communities by playing Wii Sports. Social Acceptance of Video Games Mainstream adoption of health e-games is in part a function of a mass social acceptance of video games. 35% of parents play computer and video games while 93% of those parents have children who also play games, according to Peter D. Hart Research Associates. 61% of parents believe games are a positive part of their children’s lives according to research conducted by the Entertainment Software Association. Exergaming, the largest segment of health e-games, is likely to gain further social acceptance and investment as the United States and other countries work to reduce youth obesity, Type II diabetes and sedentary lifestyles. For example, in 2007 the State of West Virginia began deploying Konami’s Dance Dance Revolution in more than 1500 schools as part of its effort to address the childhood obesity epidemic within the context of their physicial education programming. Benefits of Health e-Games Are Being Validated Through a Growing Body of Clinical Research Several dozen clinical studies have either reported positive results or are currently testing the health benefits of video games on improving health literacy, prevention and condition management. Completed studies have examined the impact of Heath eGames on cancer, physical fitness, healthy heating, asthma, diabetes, cystic fibrosis and cognitive fitness. For example, a randomized controlled study found that playing HopeLab’s Re-Mission game improved adolescent and young adult cancer patients’ cancer-related knowledge, self-efficacy and adherence to their prescribed cancer treatment plan, according to a August 2008 article in the journal American Academy of Pediatrics. Many other clinical trials of health e-games are underway, including 12 current studies being funded by an $8.25 million grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF). In addition to the evidence base, the experience base of health e-games is expanding based on the rapid adoption by consumers and professionals, which is being documented daily by the news media around the world. Note: Physic Ventures has authored a separate white paper in collaboration with Debra Lieberman, Director of RWJF’s Health Games Research program, to examine the empirical research demonstrating the efficacy of heath e-games in empowering healthy lifestyles, prevention and self-care. Organizational Awareness and Support of Health e-Games Is Accelerating For-profit corporations, start-up ventures, government agencies and nonprofits are adopting existing health e-games and funding next-generation research and development. Humana operates HumanaGames.com (HG4H) so health plan members and consumers can “play their way to better health,” Kaiser Permanente is empowering consumers to make healthier food choices through award-winning online health e-games such as The Amazing Food Detective, while CIGNA distributes Re-Mission to help teens win their battles against cancer. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has an active presence in the virtual reality game Second Life in order to advance education and drive healthy behaviors, such as encouraging flu vaccines. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) awarded a $9 million grant in 2005 to Archimage to create two health e-games to modify children’s behavior regarding diet and nutrition. Johnson & Johnson (J&J) invited industry thought-leaders and entrepreneurs to a two-day learning summit on September 18-19, 2008 to examine ways in which health e-games could enhance J&J’s consumer and pharmaceutical products. Quality and Quantity of Health e-Games Are Increasing Over 300 health e-games have been developed for consumers, patients and professionals. The number and variety of health e-games are growing rapidly as more developers and publishers seek to enter this high-growth market segment. At a September 2008 industry trade show in Montreal, Nintendo and Ubisoft showcased 17 new health e-games in the fitness and life-coach genres, including a new cooking guide, a stop smoking coach, 61 two new yoga trainers and a Pilates guide. One new high-profile example is Nintendo’s upcoming Personal Trainer: Cooking! which helps people shop for food, prepare healthy menus and cook meals with the help of a virtual guide who reads out instructions during meal preparation. The release of Apple’s iPhone has been a disruptive force across the media and gaming industries including the health e-games market segment. As of midSeptember 2008, more than 160 “health and fitness” game-like applications were available on the iPhone to consumers seeking mobile self-care tools. Rapid Innovation and Experimentation of Business Models The fast-paced video game industry is constantly evolving and creating new revenue models. At the June 2008 Social Gaming Summit in San Francisco, industryveteran David Perry described more than 25 video game monetization methods. Health e-game companies are currently using several of these models and are expected to readily adopt best practices from industry pioneers. Examples of health e-game companies using a few of the top business models include: •Consumer Direct: Nintendo’s Wii, Wii Fit, Brain Age; Ubisoft’s Easyway to Stop Smoking, Konami’s Dance Dance Revolution (DDR), Posit Science’ Brain Fitness Program; Fisher Price’s Smart Cycle •Enterprise: Expresso Fitness’ S2U and S2R; Konami’s DDR, CogniFit’s DriveFit, Dakim’s [m]Power; Posit Science’ Brain Fitness Program •Advertising: Fit Brains •Subscription: Lumos Lab’s Lumosity, Happy Neuron •Sponsorship: Kraft Game Pad, HopeLab’s Re-Mission •Nonprofit/Government Grants: Archimage’s Escape from Diab (NIH); ArchImage’s Food Fury (Aetna Foundation), MyPyramid Blast Off (USDA) Venture Capital and M&A Activity is Early But Poised for Growth To date, large corporations like Nintendo have created and captured the value resident within the health e-games market. This is expected to change as venture capital firms and corporate development groups seek a piece of this large and growing market. Over $50 million in venture capital has been invested in recent years in brain fitness companies such as Posit Science, Lumos Labs, Dakim, Cognifit, and Happy Neuron. The casual gaming space has been even more active: Big Fish closed an $83 million round on September 12, 2008; PlayFirst raised over $30 million from firms such as Mayfield and Rustic Canyon Partners; while Gaia Online secured the support of top-tier firms such as Benchmark Capital, Redpoint Ventures, and Institutional Venture Partners, which led the July 2008 Series C at an eyepopping $300 million valuation. Venture investment and strategic acquisitions have been active in adjacent sectors which could influence interest in health e-games – such as disease management, corporate wellness, Health 2.0 and social media. Physic Ventures has a vested interest in the health e-games market through an investment in Expresso Fitness and will continue to closely monitor the industry for future opportunities. 62 III. History of Health e-Games This section delivers an overview of key health e-games over the past 25 years. It focuses on the consumer market for video games, exergaming devices and software that incorporate elements of virtual reality, virtual worlds and video gaming. While this history is far from exhaustive, it provides an overview of key dates and highlights within five segments of the health e-games market: exergames, brain fitness, healthy eating, condition management and professional training games. Exergames13 1982 Atari Joyboard This was a simple four-switch balance board controller for the Atari 2600 that integrated the functionality of a standard joystick into a ridged, black plastic board. Mogul Maniac, a single game released for the Joyboard, emulated the experience of slalom skiing. Although the Joyboard was not a commercial success, it foreshadowed Nintendo’s release of the Wii Fit in 2007. 1982 Atari Puffer This gamepad system used stationary exerbike pedals or handlebars as inputs for a series of racing/exercise-type games. Three Puffer models – Pro, Arcade and Home - were planned, but the product was never released due to Atari’s bankruptcy. 1986 RacerMate CompuTrainer This add-on converted a road bicycle into a stationary bike that delivered electro-magnetic resistance. CompuTrainer attached to the rear wheel and connected to a Nintendo Entertainment System or Commodore 64. CompuTrainer evolved over time to include PC-connectivity, 3-D graphics and multi-player features. 1988 Nintendo Power Pad and Bandai Dance Aerobics In 1988, the Power Set Bundle was released with a 12-sensor plastic mat and the World Class Track Meet game. Dance Aerobics was released by Bandai in 1989. 63 1989 Nintendo Power Glove This simplified version of VPL Research’s robotic Dataglove was able to identify 256 points of articulation in the hand and fingers. Nintendo licensed the technology from VPL and brought a more basic glove to market that worked with games such as Super Glove Ball, Bad Street Brawler and Mike Tyson’s Punch Out, which was widely promoted on television. 1992 Tectrix VR Bike and VR Climber This gym-class piece of equipment featured a recumbent pedaling position, an integrated CRT and wind-generating fans that blew air in the rider’s face. Six different “worlds” were available, all of which were stored on an internal CD-ROM. One version of the VR Bike was developed for the U.S. military, based in part on the game Battlezone. 1995 Exertainment System A collaboration between Nintendo and Life Fitness, this product hooked a Super Nintendo Entertainment system to a stationary bicycle. Only two games – Mountain Bike Rally and Speed Race – were released. 1996 Namco’s Prop Cycle This arcade exergame involved a stationary exercise bike retrofitted into a basic video game where the player flew a pedal-powered ornithopter chasing balloons. 1998 Konami’s Dance Dance Revolution (DDR) Sold initially in mall arcades, DDR quickly became popular and heralded the “rhythm and dance” genre in video games. In the last few years, numerous home versions of Dance Dance Revolution have been released for a variety of gaming platforms, such as PCs and consoles, and across numerous music genres. Studies have shown that DDR helps promote activity and weight loss, which has generated mainstream adoption among health clinics, hospitals, senior centers and schools (e.g. West Virginia’s statewide implementation in 1500 schools). 64 2003 Cat-Eye Game Bike This game used off-the-shelf software that ran on PlayStation racing games, mapping the accelerator in the game design to the speed of the bike’s pedals. 2003 Sony EyeToy This digital camera device for the PlayStation 2 (PS2) allows players to interact with specially designed games by moving their bodies, including their head, arms, hands and legs. 2004 Yourself!Fitness Serving as the player’s guide and coach, a digital aerobics instructor named Maya leads the player through a series of exercises tailored to the player’s health and status. This is achieved by tracking progress on a profile using the hard drive (or the PS2’s memory card), setting up a schedule and mobilizing Maya to make suggestions based on computations made by the program. 2005 Bodypad This suite of controllers strap at the knees, waist, elbows and hands to allow gamers to control PlayStation games with physical motion. Instead of acting as motion detectors, the devices send a series of on-and-off signals understood by the games. The Bodypad allows players to mimic the motions of the video game, but not to create any new moves. 2006 Nintendo Wii This revolutionary gaming console offers motion-sensitive game play via the Wii Remote, a wireless controller used as a handheld pointing device to detect movement in three dimensions. WiiConnect24 receives messages and updates over the Internet while still in standby mode. Included with the Wii console, the Wii Sports game DVD provides players with several exergames, such as boxing, tennis, bowling and baseball. Nintendo reports that 29.6 million Wii consoles have been sold worldwide in just 19 months from the November 2006 launch through June 2008. 65 2006-2007 Expresso Fitness S2U and S2R Upright (S2U) and recumbent (S2R) fitness bikes deliver interactive, virtual-reality enhanced riding experiences. Riders select from more than 30 virtual road tours - from the Peruvian Mountains to the California Coast - or they can choose to go off-road in a fantasybased world featuring flying dragons and Japanese temples. Along the way riders steer and shift gears in response to curves, hills and other riders, which results in a realistic riding experience. Because every bike incorporates an Internet-connected PC, Expresso delivers the latest 3-D gaming technology as well as performance data such as calories, power, miles, ride times and heart rate, which is captured and delivered to users online. 2007 Gamercize Based on the concept of forcing exercise during video game play, this approach requires children or adults to actually exercise in order to play a video game. Gamercize uses an exercise device such as a stair stepper or exercise bike as a start/stop button for an Xbox, PlayStation or Gamecube console. 2007 Fisher Price’s Smart Cycle This integrated stationary bike, learning center and arcade game system is targeted at young children. Smart Cycle plugs into a television. As kids pedal, characters such as Dora the Explorer, Barbie and SpongeBob guide them through learning, discoveries, games and races. Smart Cycle won awards such as “Educational Toy of the Year” and the “Most Innovative Toy” from the Toy Industry Association. 2008 Samsung T.V. with Embedded Fitness Content The new series of Samsung Full HD IPTVs incorporates Media Solution, allowing users to stream multimedia content from their PCs for display. Samsung’s Content Library features interactive fitness exercises, step-by-step cooking recipes and built-in games for a new interactive media experience for the whole family. 2008 Nintendo’s Wii Fit This exergame delivers a virtual trainer, BMI tracking and more than 40 exercises and games focused on strength training, balance, yoga and aerobics. Wii Fit consists of the Wii Balance Board peripheral and a software program that measures a user’s weight and center of gravity. First released in Japan, the Wii Fit has sold 4.6 million units worldwide in the 19-month period December 2007 through July 2008, despite not being released in the United States until May 2008. 66 Brain Games 1999 Cognifit Founded in 1999 and based in Israel, Cognifit has developed a suite of software programs that targets both general and specific cognitive functions. MindFit is a software program that promotes “cognitive quality” by teaching cognitive and psychomotor skills. DriveFit is a software-based cognitive training program focused on improving driving skills. 2000 Happy Neuron Founded in 2000, Happy Neuron develops and markets brain fitness games. The company’s games provide scientifically-based, convenient, quick and entertaining strategies for exercising the brain, with exercises for attention, language, memory, visual-spatial and executive function skills. Recently, the company developed Wii-based titles and a series of games to help professionals manage their patients. 2001 Journey to Wild Divine Journey to Wild Divine is a biofeedback electronic game system that promotes stress management, relaxation and overall wellness. The PC-based program consists of proprietary biofeedback hardware and finger sensors which measure heart rate variability and skin conductance level. Several journey-oriented and adventure games were created for the platform, including The Passage, Healing Rhythms and Wisdom Quest. Game programming features luminaries such as Deepak Chopra, M.D., Dean Ornish, M.D. and Andrew Weil, M.D. 2002 Posit Science Posit Science, founded in 2002 as Neuroscience Solutions Corporation, develops clinically-validated cognitive fitness programs that target medical conditions such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s and Schizophrenia as well as general memory loss and mental processing. The company’s first product was an auditory processing program sold direct to consumer, into retirement centers and through health plans. Humana, for example, distributed Posit Science’s programs to its Medicare Advantage members at a sharp discount relative to the $395 list price. In mid 2008 Posit released its second product for visual processing, called Cortex with Insight. 67 2005 Nintendo Brain Age Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day! is a puzzle game designed for the hand-held Nintendo DS and can be played with single or multiple users. It stimulates the brain by inviting users to solve math problems, count currency, draw pictures or unscramble letters. Users take a series of tests to determine their brain age and the game responds by tracking user progress through online charts. Nintendo’s Brain Age and Brain Training combined have sold 13 million units between their May 2005 release and March 2008. 2007 Lumosity Developed by Lumos Labs, a cognitive neuroscience research and development company, Lumosity is an online brain fitness program designed to improve memory and attention through a daily mix of games, exercises, progress reports and brain health tips. The Lumosity website was launched in 2007 and offers unlimited access to its games for $6.70 per month, or $79.95 annually. 2007 Prevention.com Prevention magazine offers a series of brain games to complement its editorial features on brain fitness. Visitors to Prevention.com are able to play games such as Busy Bistro, Pandara’s Boutique, Street of Dreams, Split Words, Heraldry, Secret Files, Right Word and Private Eye. Paradise Island invites users to sharpen their language and visual spatial skills by constructing words within categories via a list of letters and syllables. The Prevention.com brain games are sourced from brain game producers Fit Brains, Happy Neuron and others. 2008 Fit Brains Fit Brains is a web-based brain fitness portal from Vivity Labs. The site offers entertaining activities that help users of all ages maximize their brain skills. Games are integrated with personalization tools that allow users to participate in highly individualized sessions. Additional brain fitness metric tools allow users to track their performance and progress on brain fitness tasks. In the years ahead, Fit Brains plans to integrate social components to improve the brain fitness experience. 68 Healthy Eating Games 2003 Hungry Red Planet Funded by the National Institutes for Health (NIH) and developed by Health Media Lab and Agora Multimedia, Hungry Red Planet was designed for students to learn about healthy eating by planning menus for a group of settlers on the planet Mars. The video game was aimed at 9-15 year old students and blended SimCity style simulations with knowledge about nutrition. 2004 MyPyramid Blast Off As part of MyPyramid.gov, a major initiative to revise the longstanding food pyramid, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) created a special kids section featuring MyPyramid Blast Off, an online game that teaches children about food and exercise. Players learn about the four major food groups by filling fuel tanks and tracking their progress on the revised food pyramid. 2006 Cooking Mama This healthy eating and cooking game was developed by Office Create for the Nintendo Wii and Nintendo DS platforms. The original Cooking Mama has sold more than 500,000 copies in the United States as of August 15, 2007. In 2007, Cooking Mama 2: Dinner with Friends was released in the U.S. As of January 30, 2008, the series has sold more than 2.6 million copies worldwide. 2007 The Amazing Food Detective Kaiser Permanente launched The Amazing Food Detective, a healthy eating online game that incorporates fun and delivers healthy eating messages to children. The Amazing Food Detective has been distributed via the Internet to more than 5,000 schools in Kaiser Permanente communities and has won numerous awards of excellence, including the 2008 Best Products From iParenting Media Awards and Best in Class from Interactive Media. 2007 Healthy Eating and Other Games at eatwellbewell.org The Arizona Nutrition Network developed a series of activities and online games to promote health and nutrition to people who are either on food stamps or are eligible for food stamps. A series of online games about nutrition were also developed for children to help them make healthy choices. In the game Healthy Eating, a character named Bobby must match food items before they get into the hands of a character called Idler. Other games include Milky Mix Up, Connect 3, Rainforest Frenzy, and Eat Smart, Play Hard. 69 2008 Playnormous Playnormous, a subsidiary of the design and game-development studio Archimage, is an online game portal and community where children and their parents can learn about health in a fun, interactive way. Playnormous believes in “getting healthy the fun way! …with a magic formula which can help you live a healthier life without getting bored.” Condition Management Games 1994 Rex Ronan: Experimental Surgeon Rex Ronan is Super Nintendo Entertainment System game that teaches players about the hazards of smoking tobacco cigarettes. The player goes inside a man dying of lung cancer during surgery and must defeat the evil tar and nicotine. 1994 Packy & Marlon ClickHealth’s Packy & Marlon is an interactive entertainment software product that elevates health literacy and self-care regarding juvenile diabetes. To win the game, children must effectively manage their character’s glucose levels. 1995 Bronkie the Brachiosaurus Also released by ClickHealth, Bronkie the Brachiosaurus focuses on the management of pediatric asthma. Bronkie the Brachiosaurus, like Packy & Marlon, ran on the Super Nintendo Entertainment System and was tested in clinical trials that demonstrated effectiveness helping children manage their chronic condition. These studies concluded that children who played the games increased their self-efficacy, improved their self-care and reduced emergency room visits. 2003 Diabetes Education for Kids Created by dbaza and available on a CD-ROM, Diabetes Education for Kids invites children to create a character to represent them in a story about another character named Piper, who needs assistance. Children can help Piper only if they can prove their ability to perform certain tasks such as testing for blood glucose levels. The game includes a personal journal, interactive exercises, quizzes and a dictionary. 70 2005 Escape from Diab NIH granted $9 million to Archimage to develop games about healthy eating, exercise and diabetes management for children. Collaborating with the Children’s Nutritional Research Center of Houston’s Baylor College of Medicine, Archimage has used the NIH grant to develop and test two games: Escape from Diab and Nanoswarm: Invasion from Inner Space. Now in clinical trials managed by Baylor College of Medicine, the games are scheduled to be released in early 2009. 2006 Re-Mission Created by HopeLab, Re-Mission is a first-person shooter game designed to help young adults with cancer learn how to better manage their condition. HopeLab conducted a randomized, controlled trial to test the effect of Re-Mission on adolescents and young adults with cancer. The study included 375 male and female cancer patients ages 13- 29 at 34 medical centers in the United States, Canada and Australia. Findings from this research, which were presented at peer-reviewed scientific meetings, indicate that playing Re-Mission produced increases in quality of life, self-efficacy and cancer-related knowledge for adolescents and young adults with cancer. Young people who played Re-Mission maintained higher levels of chemotherapy in their blood and showed higher rates of antibiotic utilization than those in the control group, indicating that Re-Mission helps patients adhere to cancer therapy regimens. 2007 Quest for the Code Developed by the Starlight Starbright Children’s Foundation, Quest for the Code turns asthma education materials into an online adventure for children and teens with asthma. Players learn about warning signs and symptoms, asthma myths, asthma medication devices, longterm control of asthma and measuring peak flow. The game was developed with the input of a team of national pediatric experts, and is now part of a research program at the University of Miami School of Medicine and Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine. 2008 Posornot The online Internet game Posornot works to promote HIV/AIDS education and awareness. The site reveals photographs and biographies of men and women and asks visitors to determine whether or not a person is HIV-positive or negative. As the game is played, HIV-positive participants discuss when they first learned about their HIV status, while HIV-negative participants explore how they have been affected by the disease. The game was developed by MTV’s college network, and the Kaiser Family Foundation, in partnership with POZ Magazine. 71 Professional Training Games 1982 Microsoft Flight Simulator The first version of Microsoft’s Flight Simulator was released in 1982. Since then, 11 new versions have been released, each with increasing fidelity. The current version includes detailed weather and air traffic control. 1994 Virtual Reality Modeling Language Known as VRML, the Virtual Reality Modeling Language provided a standard file format for representing 3D graphics. This provided an easy way for people to create virtual worlds for the Internet. 1996 National Research Council Report The National Research Council published a report entitled “Opportunities for Collaboration Between Defense and Entertainment Research Communities from the Committee on Modeling and Simulation” which examined how the military, entertainment industry and simulation/model developers could cooperate to improve training. It was the first attempt to link the disparate communities of serious simulation developers with game developers. 2001 Operation Flashpoint Developed by Bohemia Interactive Studio and published by Codemasters, Operation Flashpoint was a sophisticated militarytraining game. The game was selected by DARPA to be used in DARWARS, a program designed to rapidly move cutting-edge technology into the field. 2002 Serious Games Initiative In 2002, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC launched this initiative to encourage the development of games that address policy and management issues. More focused sub-groups began to appear in 2004, including Games for Change, which focuses on social issues, and Games for Health, which addresses health care applications. 72 2004 -2008 Games for Health Conference The annual Games for Health Conference, now in its fifth year, examines how interactive games and emerging game technologies can improve consumer health education and professional clinical practice, including disease and injury prevention, service delivery, professional education and training. 2006 Pulse!! Developed by BreakAway Games in conjunction with Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Pulse!! is a PC-based virtual training tool for medical and nursing students. Comparable to first-person shooter games in its design and game play elements, Pulse!! teaches skills such as resource utilization and time management under difficult conditions (such as natural and man-made disasters). The game was developed with a $7.5 million grant from the Office of Naval Research. 2007 Medical Training in Second Life Numerous professional training simulations appear within the virtual reality world Second Life. An example is Ann Myers Medical Center, a virtual medical school, which was created to test the possibilities of virtual training for real-world medical and nursing students. Participants focus on patient history, physical examination and telemetry. A virtual mentor gives the students a disease process with which to familiarize themselves before presenting a diagnosis to a physician. 2008 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation In 2008, RWJF launched Health Games Research: Advancing Effectiveness of Interactive Games for Health, a national program to support research enhancing the quality and impact of computer and video games used to improve health. Under the direction of Debra Lieberman, the $8.25 million program awarded $2 million in May 2008 across 12 research studies examining the impact of games on fitness, nutrition, condition management and other health behaviors. 73 IV. Market Drivers The health e-games marketplace is being catalyzed by market drivers in social media, health and wellness, and gaming. The intersection of these market forces is accelerating the development of diverse, effective business models and companies that serve a growing demand in the United States and beyond. Social Media Drivers Social Network Power (or SNP) The power of online social networks and the rapid rise of social media are integral elements in the lives of billions of connected individuals across the globe. SNP also reflects Metcalf’s law as it relates to the growth of virtual social networks. Originally developed to illustrate the impact of Ethernet cards, Metcalfe’s law says that “the value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of users.” As applied to SNP, Metcalf’s law suggests that as the number of social network users increases and multiplies over time, the more powerful and influential social networks will become. Examples: Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn, TBD, CarePages, Daily Strength, Patients Like Me, Enurgi i Connect 24/7 Individuals within a network are connected to the Internet anytime and anywhere – at work, at home, at play. This always-on, ubiquitous connection to the Internet cloud through a computer or mobile device has accelerated the growth of casual gaming, enabling the rise of social networks and 3-D virtual worlds such as Second Life. Examples: iPhone and other smartphones, Nintendo DS and MID iAvatars Intelligent Avatars echo the transition from PDAs, or Personal Data Assistants, to PIAs, or Personal Intelligent Assistants. This transition reflects a broader evolution from mere information technology to intelligent information technology or I2T. It also reflects the rapid evolution from a flat, one-dimensional Web 1.0 Internet experience to a three-dimensional Web 3.0 Internet experience where adults and children can participate in virtual worlds and learn, grow and experience in ways previously impossible in physical space. Examples: Second Life, Gaia Online, Webkinz, Club Penguin, virtual coaches embedded in Wii Fit and Yourself!Fitness. 74 Fun Factor From the Senet board game found in Egypt dating back to 3000 BC to contemporary releases such as Spore and Wii Fit, games have wielded a critical role in human civilization and culture. Whether games function in physical space or in cyberspace, they attract and retain audiences when they deliver fun, engagement and challenges. The ‘fun factor’ drives the growth of every dimension of the global video games market. This applies to the health e-games market where developers and publishers are producing well-designed games that empower healthy behavior by effectively harnessing the fun factor. Examples: Casual games in general, the Amazing Food Detective by Kaiser Permanente, Playnormous games such as Juice Jumbo, Bubble Trouble and Food Fury. Health and Wellness Market Drivers 60 is the New 40 Today’s active 60-year old feels and acts more like the 40-year old of years past. 77 million Baby Boomers are driven by a powerful desire to keep a youthful appearance, stay fit and remain young in spirit. This unprecedented consumer demand has created enormous opportunities for companies selling health and wellness products and services. Examples: Widespread popularity of Brain Age among Boomers, rapid adoption of Wii Sports and Wii Fit, healthy eating games such as Cooking Mama and Personal Trainer: Cooking! Health@Anywhere Empowered by technology innovations and a consumerdirected healthcare environment, health consumers are evolving from passive patients into complex, multidimensional health and medical decision-makers. The empowered health consumer surrounds him/herself with interactive and increasingly intelligent devices and services that deliver tailored health and medical knowledge services at the point of need 24x7 from almost any location. Examples: BodyMedia physiological monitoring devices, GlucoBoy diabetes testing, monitoring and gaming system for Nintendo Gameboy, and smoking cessation campaigns in the virtual world of Club Pogo. Decrease Cost and Improve Quality The United States spent $2.26 trillion on healthcare, or $7,429 per person, representing nearly 16% of total GDP. Projected to reach 20% of GDP by 2017, the healthcare system is under tremendous pressure to lower costs while improving quality. This has led to a large and rapidly growing marketplace of specialized health and behavior change services, including corporate wellness programs, disease management, health promotions and new models for primary care delivery. The next generation of wellness and disease management programs might embrace and integrate health e-games that have both demonstrated clinical effectiveness and achieved popularity among consumers/patients. Examples: Humana Games for Health, Escape from Diab, Nanoswarm and Re-Mission. Well-tainment This movement features fun, engaging and entertaining products and services that support health and enable wellness across all sectors of society and the economy. Fueling this growth is the desire among consumers to organize their lives less around consumption and hierarchical achievement than around learning, community and good health achieved in an environment of fun, entertainment and involvement. Featuring a blend of fun, health, learning and self-improvement, health e-games fit squarely at the center of this market driver. Nintendo internal strategy of “productive entertainment” is a reflection of this driving force that combines fun with purpose. Examples: Rapid adoption of Wii Sports, Dance Dance Revolution and other exergames in senior citizen centers, schools, cruise ships and other social settings. 75 Video Game Market Drivers GamerMoms Women, who often function as the ‘chief financial officers’ of households, represent a majority of today’s casual gamers while also serving as primary healthcare decision makers. Women of all ages spend time playing casual games that range from word, card and puzzle games to time management, hidden object and brain games. With more gaming choices available within the worlds of casual and health e-games, women have become a central hub for game decision-making. They buy, play and manage the household’s game menu in much the same way they have made family healthcare decisions for decades. Examples: Casual games such as Sudoku, Diner Dash, Bejeweled, Solitaire, as well as the acceptance of Nintendo Wii into households that would never have adopted traditional game consoles and violent games such as Grand Theft Auto. Not Your Son’s Video Games Historically, video games have been associated with teenage boys and young men glued to their televisions playing violent shooter games. This stereotype has shifted in the last five-to-ten years with the rise of casual games, brain games, exergames, and virtual worlds. Gaming involves people of all ages and profiles – from very young children and parents, to college-educated women, teenagers and seniors. PlayFirst, a leading casual gaming company, reports that 40% of all gamers are now women, 90% of PlayFirst users are women, 35 is the average age across all games, and 67% of US heads of households are gamers. Examples: Spore, Peggle, Tetris, Sims, and Boom Box by Steven Spielberg. Games R Media Multimedia video games have become a medium rather than a product. Video games have evolved to resemble television series with multiple episodes such as “Lost,” or even full-length motion picture productions as with newer game releases such as Spore. Much like a newly launched television program, the launch of a video game introduces a fresh media brand complete with story lines, characters, heavy promotion and community developed around characters, and previous and future episodes. Video games also connect participants in multi-player environments featuring collaborations, competitions, battles and shared knowledge and resources. Both television series and games thrive as they build ongoing, reciprocal relationships with viewers and players. Examples: Nickelodeon’s Carrie the Caregiver, Electronic Art’s Spore and PlayFirst’s Diner Dash series. Dollar$4 This driver represents the diversification of business models in the highly innovative and quickly-changing video game industry. The traditional revenue stream for games features a direct-to-consumer model where a consumer purchases a game through a retail outlet or online via “pay to play” or “trial play,” in which the first hour is free, followed by a lock until payment is received. Newer, rapidly developing models include advergames, sponsorships and in-game advertising where advertisements are woven into the game’s theme to support and enhance the total game experience. Entire economies, complete with currencies that translate into real money in the real world, have been constructed within virtual worlds. In Second Life, for example, $1.00 USD buys $250 Linden Dollars (L$). Both virtual world and casual games generate revenue through microtransactions in which players are charged for optional add-on content, such as a new level of the game or tweaks that bolster an avatar. Advertising and sponsorsupported gaming is another business model likely to drive the growth of health e-games, with a particular adoption anticipated in exergames and healthy eating games. Examples: Expresso Fitness’ in-game advertising strategy, Lumosity’s subscription model for online brain games, Kraft’s sponsorship of a DDR-based exergame, Nobel Biocare’s $65 million sponsorship of a dental simulation game 76 V. Health e-Games Market Profile Market Size Snapshot – Video Game Industry Video gaming is a rapidly growing industry that transacted nearly $42 billion in annual global revenue (hardware and software) in 2007, and is projected to reach $68 billion by 2012 (a 10.3% annual revenue growth) according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers. The health egames market represents $6.6 billion of the overall video gaming industry, a 16% share. Though modest in relative size, the nontraditional video gaming market segments (such as casual games, serious games and exergames), are expected to significantly contribute to the growth of the overall industry going forward. For example, casual games are expected to grow at 20% annually in 2008 and beyond, nearly twice the rate of growth of the overall video game industry. Nintendo, largely due of the success of the exergaming console Wii, today represents 60% of the growth of the console market vs. only 20% apiece for Sony PS3 and Microsoft Xbox. Revenues for the other health e-game categories, such as healthy eating, condition management and professional training, are significantly smaller at present and harder to quantify for several reasons. Reasons include the lack of published data among numerous small companies, evolving business models, unconventional distribution model, lower consumer demand and the nature of these games. Most of the games in these categories are being developed and given away for free through the support of government agencies (e.g. NIH, CDC, US Navy), nonprofits (e.g. Kaiser Family Foundation, Aetna Foundation), or corporations (e.g. Nobel Biocare). Business models are evolving for these games, but as yet, there are few data points showing direct revenues for these games. Three notable exceptions are Nintendo’s Cooking Mama, Nintendo’s Personal Trainer: Cooking!, and Ubisoft’s Easyway to Stop Smoking game. Health e-Games Categories For consumers, health e-games provide a fun experience to increase health literacy, manage health conditions, improve brain function, aid in recovery/rehabilitation, reduce stress and enhance physical fitness. Researchers are finding that games can change behaviors, help boost the cognitive fitness of senior citizens and even help in providing therapy for wounded veterans. The health e-games market is comprised of four consumer categories and one professional, including: Market Size Snapshot – Health e-Games The size of the health e-games market is estimated to be $6.6 billion in worldwide revenues based on trailing 12 month revenues through mid-2008. The 2008 market size estimate of $6.6 billion almost exclusively reflects revenues of two categories: exergames and brain fitness games. These products have direct-to-consumer revenues because people are buying these games at retail or online for a combination of entertainment and health benefits (“self-care”). • Exergames: These are games that require physical activity. They include games that motivate exercise through game-play and virtual -coaching, such as Nintendo’s Wii and Wii Fit for home use. In a gym or other shared-use facility, companies such as Expresso Fitness provide sophisticated exergaming equipment which integrates virtual reality landscapes and simultaneous multi-player gaming for an engaging and immersive experience. Exergames are by far the largest portion of the health e-games market, comprising $6.4 billion of the estimated $6.6 billion market. • Brain Fitness Games: These are games that help exercise and improve various cognitive functions including attention, memory, visual/spatial processing, auditory processes and language, motor coordination and executive functions like planning and problem solving. The brain fitness market, while focused primarily on Boomers and seniors, includes games that address a wide range of customer types. For 77 example, Dakim and Posit Science sell software into retirement centers, while companies like Fit Brains and Lumos Labs target healthy adults and even young job-seekers in their 20s. SharpBrains, a market research company focused exclusively on the brain fitness segment, published a comprehensive industry report in March 2008 which estimated the brain fitness market in the United States to be $225 million. • Healthy Eating Games: These are games designed to improve the knowledge and behaviors regarding nutrition and weight management. Many of these games are targeted at children to help them make smart nutritional choices. These games are typically offered online for free and are sponsored by health care companies, government agencies or consumer product good companies who are trying to promote their products in association with healthy eating. • Condition Management Games: These are games targeted at a specific health condition such as asthma, diabetes or cancer. These games provide educational information about the condition and treatment methods to improve adherence to a physician- recommended treatment plan. Most of these games are being developed by a sponsoring corporation, non-profit organization(s) or from government grants. Most of the games are then made available for free to people who have the condition and are seeking to improve their care. • Professional Training Games: These are interactive simulation games designed to be used for education and training of soldiers, pilots, first-responders, nurses and physicians, among others. For example, a virtual reality game can be used to train surgeons, allowing them to practice on virtual body tissue and get the same feedback they would experience in performing a real operation. In this segment, corporate sponsorships are starting to appear. For instance, Nobel Biocare, a dental implant company, has provided $65 million in grant money to the Medical College of Georgia to develop training games and simulations for classrooms and clinics around the world. These games focus on decision-making and risk mitigation. 78 Exergaming: $6.4 Billion Market The total exergaming segment is estimated to be approximately $6.4 billion based on a bottom-up analysis performed by Physic Ventures and iConecto. The table below provides a revenue breakdown of the exergaming market segment by key players. PRODUCT (Company) GLOBAL UNITS SOLD TO DATE ANNUALIZED UNITS SOLD UNIT PRICE TOTAL REVENUES TRAILING 12 MONTH REVENUE Dance Dance Revolution (Konami) 7.50 million 7 years, 1998-2005 1.07 million $50.00 $535 million $53.5 million Konami press release19 Wii (Nintendo) 29.62 million 19 months, 11/06 to 6/08 18.71 million $300.00 $8,886 million $5,612 million Nintendo public filings Wii Sports (Nintendo) 21.56 million 16 months, 11/06 to 3/08 16.17 million Bundled with Wii console Included with Wii Included with Wii Nintendo public filings20 Wii Fit (Nintendo) 4.60 million 8 months, 12/07 to 7/08 6.91 million $90.00 $414 million $622 million The NPD Group Smart Cycle (Fisher Price) Not available Not available Not available $110.00 Not available Not available N/A EyeToy (Sony) 10.5 million 6 years: 2003-2008 1.75 million $30.00 $315 million $52.5 million DarkZero21 Expresso Fitness 7,870 3 years: 2006-2008 5,250 (FY 2008) $3,714 $28.3 million $19.5 million22 Physic Ventures confidential TOTAL PERIOD $6.36 Billion SOURCE 79 • Dance, Dance Revolution (DDR) – According to an online press release from Konami, the company reported selling 7.5 million units over a seven-year period 1998-2005, or approximately 1.07 million units annually. Sales since 2005 are unknown, but more Konami DDR products are being released each year and it can be assumed that sales of this popular game are meeting or exceeding the previous growth rate. Assuming an average per unit price of $50, DDR generates approximately $53.5 million in annual sales. This is likely a conservative figure because the current game version, DDR Hottest Party Game 2, with game and dance pad for the Wii, currently sells for $70 and is expected to have strong unit volume. Konami reported in a March 2007 press release that their annual sales revenue was approximately $2.3 billion and they praised the DDR series which grew by more than one million units in the previous 12 month period. • Wii: Over the 19-month period November 2006 to July 2008, Nintendo sold 29.62 million Wii consoles worldwide according to a company report. Assuming an average sales price of $300 (which includes the Wii console and Wii Sports), the Wii has generated total revenues of $8.9 billion, or approximately $5.6 billion on an annualized basis. Nintendo is forecasting 25 million units, or about $7.5 billion in sales, for the forward 12-month period April 2008 to March 2009. • Wii Fit: The Wii Fit was first released in Japan in December 2007 and later released in the US in May 2008. According to the NPD Group, a market research firm which tracks sales of video games, Wii Fit sold 3.6 million units from January through July 2008, and another 1 million units in Japan in December 2007, resulting in a global figure of 4.6 million units over 8 months. Assuming an average price of $90, the Wii Fit represents $622 million in annual revenue on a trailing 12-month basis. This estimate is believed to be conservative because only three months of US sales (May-July) are included in this figure. According to NPD Group, Wii Fit sold 1.4 million units in the US from May through July, which annualizes to 5.6 million or $504 million in revenues. The pro forma figure for Wii Fit sales increases to $993 million when taking into ac count an annualized figure for US sales. For the purposes of this health e-games analysis, the more conservative $622 million is applied. • Smart Cycle Physical Learning Arcade System: Fisher-Price’s Smart Cycle for children 3-6 years old is a stationary bike, gaming system and learning center that encourages children to pedal through activities on the TV screen. The Smart Cycle, released in 2007, was awarded the “Most Innovative Toy of the Year Award” at the Toy Industry Association’s Annual T.O.T.Y. Awards gala in NY City in February 2008. The Smart Cycle retails for $100 and additional games sell for $20 each. Actual sales of the Smart Cycle are unknown and research is underway, but it is likely that this toy contributes millions to the exergaming market segment. • EyeToy: Sony’s EyeToy is a digital camera device designed to be integrated with the Sony PlayStation 2 console. The technology uses computer vision to process images taken by the camera. This allows players to interact with games using motion, color detection and sound through its built-in microphone. There are a number of Sony games that require the EyeToy (e.g., EyeToy: Play Sports and Fight), and it can also be used optionally with games like DDR. According to a gaming news and reviews website, Dark Zero, global shipments of the EyeToy family of products exceeded 7.5 million units since its release in 2003, translating to an average of 1.75 million units annually. The retail cost for the EyeToy is $30, resulting in annual estimated global revenues of approximately $52.5 million. • Expresso Fitness: In 2006, Expresso Fitness released the Spark (or S1U for Spark 1st Generation Upright), a virtual reality stationary bike delivering an interactive, engaging and game-like fitness experience. In 2007, Expresso released the second generation upright bike, the S2U, and in June 2008 began selling a recumbent bike, the S2R. Expresso’s cutting-edge exergaming bikes are extremely popular with consumers (gym members) and gym owners/operators who purchase the differentiated equipment to both sell new members and retain existing customers. Market demand is clearly visible in the company’s revenue growth from $1.5 million in 2006 to $7.2 million in 2007 to $19.5 million in 2008. Brain Fitness: $225 Million Market SharpBrains, a market research firm, published an industry report in March 2008 titled The State of the Brain Fitness Software Market which estimates the size of the US brain fitness software segment at $225 million in 2007. This represents a 50% CAGR from 2005 when the market was $100 million by SharpBrain’s estimates. 80 Nintendo’s Brain Age is by far the biggest brain fitness product as measured by revenue. Nintendo has released two versions: Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day and the sequel, Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day, both on the Nintendo hand-held DS console. Nintendo reports that Brain Age and Brain Training combined have sold 13 million units sales in the 34 month period between May 2005 through March 2008. Assuming a price of $20 per unit, these two brain games have generated $260 million in revenues for Nintendo. Several online casual gaming websites have been recently launched with a focus on brain fitness games. Examples include Lumos Labs, Happy Neuron and Fit Brains. Happy Neuron earns revenues by charging consumers subscription fees of $9.95 per month or $99.95 per year, while Lumos Labs provides access to its games for $6.70 per month or $79.95 annually. Fit Brains offers games for free on their website and monetizes its users by selling advertisements. These companies also drive sales from licensing fees paid by syndication partners, such as WebMD, Prevention.com and Revolution Health. Lumos Labs, Happy Neuron and Fit Brains do not report their revenues, but SharpBrains estimates sales of less than $1 million for each company. Healthy Eating (Market Estimate Not Available) The majority of the games in this category are available for free via the Internet. Notable exceptions do exist, with Nintendo again leading the way. Nintendo’s tremendous commercial success with games for physical fitness (Wii Sports, Wii Fit) and games for brain fitness (Brain Age) appears to be encouraging the pioneering company to expand into the healthy eating category. Nintendo has already experienced a successful entry in the healthy eating market, selling 2.6 million copies of Cooking Mama worldwide through January 2008, which translates into total revenues of approximately $75 million assuming an average price of $30. In November 2008, Nintendo will release another healthy eating game called Personal Trainer: Cooking! which helps people shop for food, prepare healthy menus and cook meals with the help of a virtual guide who reads out instructions during meal preparation. Other games that focus on healthy eating and nutrition include: • Feed the Monster and Nutrition Explorations by the National Dairy Council • Food Fury by Playnormous (Archimage) • The Amazing Food Detective by Kaiser Permanente • Fatworld by ITVS’s Electric Shadows initiative • Noteniks Healthy Eating & Exercise by Sound Advice • Body Mechanics by Big Red Frog • Hungry Red Planet by Health Media Lab • Food, Fun and Fitness Internet Program for Girls by Agricultural Research Center’s Children Nutritional Research Majesco Entertainment Condition Management (Market Estimate Not Available) With few exceptions, condition management games are not designed or positioned to generate revenue directly from consumer sales. Instead, the research, development and distribution of these games are typically underwritten by a sponsor, advertiser or grantor organization from the private or public sector. Consumer/patients typically receive condition management games at no cost from health plans, the government, schools or other institutions with a vested interest in improving public health. Examples are shown below by disease type: •Cancer: Re-Mission by Hope Lab is a game designed for young cancer patients. According to the HopeLab website, more than 125,000 free copies of Re-Mission have been distributed in 80 countries since its release in April 2006, or nearly 63,000 games per year. Re-Mission has been distributed free of charge to CIGNA members. The development and distribution expenses of Re-mission have been estimated at $10 million, with funding and other support provided by Pam and Pierre Omidyar, CIGNA and others. •Diabetes / Obesity: Most health e-games which focus on obesity and diabetes have been underwritten by a nonprofit or government agency, but it is conceivable that revenues could be generated through in-game advertising or sponsorship from a company marketing a healthy food or beverage, a pharmaceutical, medical device or weight loss service. The following is a sampling of 21 of the diabetes education games: - Diabetes Food Pyramid Bingo by SmartPicks - Build a Healthy Plate, Food Fight, Food Safari, Crossword and Wizdom by Diabetes.org - Can you Count to Ten, Checks and Boluses, Dominoes, Friends for Life, In Balance, Kit Cards, Monitors, Pair the Pumps, Pic-Tac-Toe, Scrambled Words, and Two the Same all by GrandmaSandy.com 81 - Diabetes Trivia Game by Food and Health Communications - Escape from Diab by Archimage - Future Focus by Future Focus - Learning About Diabetes by Tracey Associates •Smoking Cessation: In November 2008, Ubisoft is scheduled to release Allan Carr’s Easyway To Stop Smoking game for the Nintendo DS. The game is an extension of Allan Carr’s Easyway to Stop Smoking book which is an international best seller. Over 10 million smokers in 50 countries have already turned to Allan Carr’s Easyway books, clinics or DVD in order to stop smoking. With Nintendo DS titles selling for $28, and 10 million smokers already using Allan Carr’s programs, this new condition management game could generate many millions in new sales for Ubisoft. New Revenue Models for Healthy Eating and Condition Management There is growing activity in health e-games for condition management and healthy eating. Although exact revenue potential has not been estimated at the time of this publication, there is increasing interest in these categories among game developers, funding sources and partners. As of the time of this report, iConecto identified 66 healthy eating games and 85 condition management games. As discussed above, most healthy eating and condition management games are not generating revenue directly from consumers. A few exceptions exist, such as Nintendo’s Cooking Mama, and soon to be released titles including Personal Trainer: Cooking! and Easyway To Stop Smoking. These games will generate revenues from direct-to-consumer sales, but the vast majority of health e-games that focus on healthy eating and condition management do not have a traditional revenue model. That said, health e-gaming companies in these categories are experimenting with various revenue models including sponsorship, in-game advertising, product sales and subscriptions. These business models with examples are discussed below. •Advertising and Sponsorship Revenue: In-game advertising is being used by many of the largest brand marketers, including Coke, Pepsi, Nike, Toyota, Time Warner, Unilever and Adidas, to name a few. Google purchased AdScape in February 2007 to develop a mar ketplace and delivery system for advertisements within games. It is conceivable (and highly likely) that food and beverage companies would be interested in de livering brand awareness, special promotions or product placements within health e-games focused on nutrition and healthy eating. Other companies are co-creating entirely new games based on healthy eating and fitness themes. An example is Kraft’s collaboration with Konami to launch the Kraft Game Pad based on the Dance Dance Revolution platform. •Product Sales: Companies are starting to use health e-games as a means to increase product sales of pharmaceuticals, medical devices or other products. For instance, Guidance Interactive Healthcare created the Health eGame GlucoBoy, which is a blood glucose meter that interacts with the Nintendo Game Boy Advance System. When the product is effectively used to measure blood glucose levels, it unlocks a series of fun and interactive games. This strategic marketing approach taps demand from children desiring fun video games and their parents desiring a blood glucose device which increases compliance. GlucoBoy is sold directly to consumers (i.e. parents). The game is currently available in Australia for a price of $125 (Australian dollars) but has not yet received FDA clearance in the United States. •Subscription Revenues: The next generation of web-based health e-games games could incorporate a subscription service that offers a two-tiered revenue stream: (i) in-game advertising to users who play free; and (ii) ad-free and unlimited play to paying sub scribers. This model has been effectively executed by companies like Pogo.com (Electronic Arts), which charges $6 per month or $40 annually to nearly 2 million current subscribers while monetizing 16 million non-subscribing players via advertisements and sponsorships. Health e-game companies, such as Fit Brains, Happy Neuron and Lumos Labs, are experimenting with this two-tiered business model in the brain fitness category. It is conceivable that an online gaming portal that focuses on healthy eating could likewise charge a monthly subscription free. For example, Playnormous could potentially charge a fee to parents seeking a child-friendly gaming portal that offers fun games focused on nutrition and other health themes. 82 Technology Platforms24 Market Profile Summary The figure below shows the different technology platforms for which health e-games are delivered. The largest segment are games available online and/or downloadable from the Internet. Of the more than 300 games identified, 53% are available online. The next largest segment (with 10% of the total) includes games that have special devices, such as exergaming equipment. CD-Rom and other computer-based games make up a combined 16%, whereas health e-games developed for specific consoles (e.g., Sony’s Playstation, Microsoft’s Xbox, and/or Nintendo’s Wii) make up only 7% of the overall market. Other segments, each representing less than a 10% share, include mobile, television, and board games. Mobile, while currently one of the smallest segments, is the platform most likely to experience accelerated growth as wireless Internet access on these devices becomes more common, combined with ever-faster download speeds. The health e-games market is a large, dynamic and fast growing segment that shares many features of the overall casual games and serious games market. It is being driven by the confluence of social media, health and wellness, and gaming market drivers. The health e-games market is estimated to be $6.6 billion and expected to grow rapidly. The Wii console and Wii Fit together represent nearly $6.2 billion in annual sales and are well positioned for accelerated expansion as evidenced by Nintendo’s forecast of 25 million units, or about $7.5 billion, for 12month period April 2008 to March 2009. According to SharpBrains, the brain fitness industry is slated to reach $2 billion by 2015 (just in the U.S.). The other categories, such as healthy eating, general health and condition management have shown growing interest by health care companies, advertisers, product developers, government agencies and non-profit organizations. There are many opportunities and business models for game developers, publishers and distributors to enter this market and make a difference to the health and wellness of people in the U.S. and beyond. The next section examines the health e-game market from the perspective of an investor. VI. Investment Opportunities Health e-games have been used by consumers for over 25 years, yet the financing and investing activity in this marketplace is still nascent, though poised for growth. For example, over $50 million in venture capital has been invested in recent years in the brain fitness segment. Interested investors – venture capital firms and strategic corporations alike – can gain insights from examining current investments and acquisition activity in the health e-games market as well as in adjacent sectors which are driven by similar economic and social forces. Hence, an appreciation of the potential of the health e-games market from an investor’s perspective requires a broader analysis of the venture capital investments, strategic acquisitions, corporate development initiatives and government/nonprofit support in related sectors. 83 As illustrated in the diagram, indicators for the growth of health e-games are rooted in investments made in casual gaming, social media, video gaming and mobile gaming. The health e-games market also benefits from accelerated investments in Health 2.0 and Specialized Health Management (SHM), which includes corporate wellness and disease management among other services. SHM companies, in particular, are likely to adopt health e-games that demonstrate clinical efficacy in improving health behaviors and lowering costs. •Dakim secured $11 million in February 2008 from Galen Partners, a private equity firm specializing in healthcare investing. Dakim’s [m]Power system, which are primarily sold to senior living communities, comprises a touch screen interface, head phones, built-in camera and facial recognition software to help maintain brain health and mental acuity. •Expresso Fitness has raised three rounds of venture financing totaling $33 million from Enterprise Partners, Sierra Ventures and Physic Ventures to develop and market commercial-grade exergaming equipment that integrates virtual reality gaming and interactive fitness. Expresso’s upright and recumbent stationary bicycles incorporate an Internet-connected PC to enable multi player gaming and capture health data (calories, power, miles, ride times, heart rate, etc.). •HopeLab was founded and funded in part by Pam Omidyar who is married to eBay founder Pierre Omidyar. HopeLab is reported to have invested approximately $10 million to develop, distribute and support a cancer-management game titled Re-Mission. More than 125,000 copies of Re-Mission have been distributed through a partnership with CIGNA. Venture Capital – Health e-Games Venture investing in health e-game companies has been modest, but increasing, with a primary focus on the brain fitness and exergaming categories. In contrast, the healthy eating and condition management sectors have been largely funded with grants from government agencies and nonprofits. For example, Archimage received a $9 million grant from NIH and a separate grant from the Aetna Foundation to develop healthy eating and condition management games to teach and change behavior around nutrition and obesity. Key venture investments in health e-games include: •Cognifit raised $5 million in July 2008 from Paris-based Milk Capital to develop cognitive fitness software and expand its presence in North America. CogniFit’s solutions apply to many fields and disciplines including healthcare, driving, education and sports. The company previously raised $4.2 million to develop its first-generation product and to sell into markets in UK, Europe and the Middle East. •Interaction Labs has raised $6.5 million since 2002 from Sachs Capital, Maryland Venture Fund, TEDCO, friend and family for the development of computer interface technologies for immersive physical interactions. To date, the company has generated revenues of $2 million from resistance-based and motion-based exergaming equipment sold to consum ers and the military. •Lumos Labs raised $3 million in June 2008 from Norwest Venture Partners and FirstMark Capital to develop web-based brain games aimed at users across age groups, ranging from job seekers in their 20’s to Boomers in their 70’s. •Posit Science has raised more than $25 million from two financings, in March 2003 and July 2005, from Aberdare Ventures, Draper Fisher Jurvetson and other funds to develop science-based brain health software programs that address a range of issues from improving cognition to ameliorating conditions such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Schizophrenia, obsessive-com pulsive disorder, chronic pain and focal dystonias. 84 •Vivity Labs launched Fit Brains.com, a brain fitness online gaming portal and platform with $1 million in angel financing. Based on its growing member base and engagement with Vivity’s first generation of casual brain games, the company is pursuing additional growth capital. Venture Capital – Casual Games Venture capital firms have taken a keen interest in the casual gaming market over the past few years. Brain fitness and certain healthy eating games are considered to be casual games, so the robust venture activity in casual gaming market could be viewed as a possible sign of future capital deployment in the health e-games market. Following are some recent venture investments in casual game companies: •Alamofire, a casual gaming start-up focused on lightweight casual social games, secured $2 million in funding from the Founders Fund. Packrat, the company’s first game, is one of the most popular games on Facebook. •Big Fish Games completed an $83 million round of venture capital in September 2008 with financ ing provided by Balderton Capital, General Catalyst and Salmon River Capital. Having already achieved profitability and a leadership position in casual gaming, Big Fish has doubled in size over the past three years, bringing in $50.8 million in revenue in 2007. •Fluid Entertainment, which is developing a Massively Multiplayer Online Game (MMO) for children, secured $3.2 million from Trinity Ventures. Fluid has announced plans to release a green game that offers children the tools to use initiative and imagination in an ecologically themed environment. •Gaia Interactive closed an $11 million Series C investment in July 2008 from blue-chip funds such as Benchmark Capital, Institutional Venture Partners and Redpoint Ventures. Strategic investors Sony and Time Warner also joined the round which valued the company at $300 million. •Gamook, a casual game company, raised $1.5 million in funding from U.S. Venture Partner. •Grockit secured $10.7 million in funding to develop a Massively Multiplayer Online Learning Game (MMOLG). The game will offer learners an environment where they can meet and work with each other within a live, collaborative platform. •PlayFirst, a developer and publisher of casual game titles including the popular Diner Dash series, raised $16.5 million from Rustic Canyon Partners, Trinity Ventures and DCM in a December 2007 Series C round. The company has raised more than $30 million to date, including early support from the Mayfield Fund. •Raptr raised $12 million in venture capital from Accel Partners and Founders Fund. •Turbine raised $40 million in venture funding to expand its position in the general casual gaming market. Health 2.0 – Active Venture Investment and M&A Activity Web 2.0 technologies and solutions – search, wikis, blogs, video and online communities – are empowering, engaging and educating healthcare consumers and providers. This movement, known as Health 2.0, can be defined as “the use of social media software and its ability to promote collaboration between patients, their caregivers, medical professionals and other stakeholders in health.” Health e-games are closely related to Health 2.0 as both sectors provide consumers and professionals with social, collaborative and interactive tools to empower healthy behavior. This close association between Health 2.0 and health e-games stimulated Matthew Holt and Dr. Indu Subaiya, co-founders of the Health 2.0 Conference, to include a “Gaming in Health Care” track in the 3rd annual conference (October 2008). Panel participants include Brian Button, CEO of Expresso Fitness; Richard Buday, CEO of Archimage; Paul Puopolo, Director with Humana; Richard Tate, Marketing Director with HopeLab; and Michael Cole, CEO of Fit Brains. Douglas Goldstein, co-author of this paper, was selected to moderate the panel. In addition, the Health 2.0 Conference will be hosting a Gaming4Health 2.0 Interactive Space patterned on a home of the future. In this area, health e-game organizations will be able to share and demonstrate their multimedia gaming, social media and virtual world products and services. 85 Given the close linkage between Health 2.0 and health e-games, it is instructive to explore recent investment and acquisition activity in the Health 2.0 space to gain insights into the future of the health e-games marketplace. Below is a list of select venture capital investments, followed by a table of recent strategic acquisitions: •Carol.com received $12 million in venture funding from Lemhi Ventures to develop a consumer-friendly marketplace which enables users to browse, compare and purchase healthcare services from healthcare providers. •ConnectivHealth, which provides digital health information to physicians, health care professionals, hospitals and schools, has received more than $7 million in two rounds of venture capital funding from Chrysalis Ventures and Petra Capital Partners. •DailyStrength, a social network entirely focused on health and wellness, received a $4 million Series A investment in June 2007 from Redpoint Ventures. •DestinationRx, which offers consumer drug comparison and purchasing technology solutions, raised $10 million from Lehmi Ventures in May 2006. •HealthCentral Network, founded in 1999, secured a $50 million investment in January 2008 from a blue-chip investment syndicate which includes Sequoia Capital, Polaris Ventures, Carlyle Group, IAC/Interac tiveCorp and Allen & Company. •Healthline Networks, which offers online health search and content, has received $45 million in venture investments over three rounds (2000, 2006 and 2007) from Aetna Ventures, JHK Investments, Kaiser Permanente Ventures, Mitsui & Co, Peacock Equity Fund, Reed Elsevier Ventures, U.S. News & World Report and VantagePoint Venture Partners. •Organized Wisdom, which provides online physician-reviewed search services for health informa tion, received a $2.3 million investment in June 2008 from ETF Venture Funds and Esther Dyson. •PatientsLikeMe, a healthcare social networking site, raised $5 million in a Series A round financing with funding provided by Collaborative Seed & Growth Partners, CommerceNet, Omidyar Network and the Invus Group. •Phreesia, which develops patient check-in solutions, has secured more than $13 million in two rounds of financing (December 2006 and September 2007) from HLM Venture Partners, Long River Ventures, Polaris Venture Partners and Village Ventures. •Revolution Health Group has received a reported $500 million from the personal fortune of Steve Case to build a consumer-centric online health company. Having completed the acquisitions of several smaller companies – CarePages, Extend Health, myDNA Media, Simo Software, TestMyHealth, TLContact and Wondir Health – Revolution Health is in merger talks with Everyday Health to combine two of the three most-visited online health information networks. •Sermo, an online physician social network, has raised more than $40 million in three rounds of venture capital in 2006 and 2007 from large financial institutions and media-focused investors, including Allen & Company, Legg Mason, Longworth Venture Partners and SoftBank Capital. •Trusera, formerly named PeerWisdom, raised $2 million in seed funding from Seattle-based Benaroya Capital, TerraPass’ Erik Blachford, Ackerly Partners’ Christopher Ackerley, Amazon.com’s Kim Rachmeler and Washington Mutual’s Craig Tall. •Vimo, which operates an online shopping portal of healthcare products and services, has received $12 million in two financings (May 2005 and April 2007) from Bessemer Venture Partners and Trinity Ventures. •ZocDoc, which provides online services for finding and booking dentists and doctors, received a $3 million investment in August 2008 from Khosla Ventures. This marks the first investment in Health 2.0 from the renowned venture capitalist Vinod Khosla. 86 The following chart lists recent strategic acquisitions of Health 2.0 companies: DATE BUYER TARGET TRANSACTION VALUE TARGET DESCRIPTION 6/07 Meredith Corporation Healia Not disclosed Consumer health search engine 6/07 ConnectivHealth Relegent Not disclosed Health content and services to hospitals and schools 4/07 Revolution Health Group CarePages Not disclosed Private-label social networks for patients and their families offered from hospitals 4/07 Revolution Health Group TLContact Not disclosed Tools that help the healthcare community connect 3/07 About.com UCompareHealthCare $2.3 million Healthcare ratings and comparison site 2/07 Microsoft Medstory Not disclosed Healthcare search engine 11/06 WebMD Subimo $66 million Online tools for managing health and selecting physicians and health insurance 6/06 McKesson RelayHealth Corporation Not disclosed Healthcare communication services to patients, providers, pharmacies and payers 1/06 WebMD eMedicine $25.5 million Online medical information for consumers, professionals 3/05 WebMD HealthShare Technology $36 million Decision support tools to evaluate hospital care, quality 1/05 iVillage Healthology $16.6 million Physician-generated video content supplier 1/04 Zix Corp. MyDocOnline $9 million Internet-based healthcare services 87 Specialized Health Management – A Rapid Growth Adjacent Sector Health plans, employers and government agencies are actively developing products, services and strategies to help consumers/patients/members stay healthier, thereby containing healthcare costs and improving quality. Activity among third-party payers has, in turn, accelerated investment in specialized health management products and services, which cover disease and condition management, wellness, health promotion and productivity support. Key companies in the Specialized Health Management (SHM) sector include Healthways (HWAY), Matria/Inverness Medical Innovations (IMA), I-trax/Walgreens (WAG) and HLTH Corporation (HLTH). The $2.3 billion SHM industry is growing at a rate of 10% annually, with revenues expected to reach $2.7 billion by 2010 according to Health Industries Research Companies (HIRC) Health & Disease Management Service Report. Wellness revenues are expected to grow from $284 million in 2008 to $440 million in 2010, a 55% annual growth rate. SHM companies have benefited from investment transactions and mergers, as well as the growth in consumers’ use of the Internet to find online health information, condition management and other health-related products and services. 88 The chart below presents a selection of recent SHM acquisitions: DATE BUYER TARGET TRANSACTION VALUE 5/08 Inverness Medical Matria $1.2 billion Disease management (DM) and worksite wellness, including nurseline, coaching and online tools 4/08 Walgreens iTrax/CHD Meridian $278 million Onsite clinics and wellness services 4/08 WellPoint Resolution Health Not disclosed Health promotion through predictive modeling of products and services 12/07 Bupa Health Dialog $775 million DM and wellness services, analytics, health coaching and risk assessment 10/07 Inverness Medical Alere Medical $311 million DM specializing in home monitoring 3/07 Nationwide Better Health WellCorp Not disclosed HRA and wellness program provider 3/07 CVS Caremark $26.5 billion Pharmacy benefits management with leading employers and health plans 12/06 Healthways Axia Health Management $502 million Preventive health services for employers and health plans 9/06 CVS MinuteClinic $170 million Retail health clinic 6/06 WebMD Summex $30 million HRA, health coaching and wellness for employers 5/06 OptumHealth (Unitedhealth) Health AtoZ Not disclosed Health management programs via an online consumer health portal 2/06 Axia Health Management Harris Health Trends Not disclosed Health advising, onsite health, consulting and other health services 12/05 Matria CorSolutions $445 million Disease management services 12/05 Health Fitness Corp HealthCalc $6.1 million Health risk assessment tools and wellness 7/05 BCBS of Tennessee Gordian Not disclosed Wellness, health coaching and HRA to employers and health plans 6/05 Healthways MyHealthIQ Not disclosed Risk assessment, screening, self-directed programs and coaching 5/05 Aetna ActiveHealth $405 million Technology-driven health management and analytics company 4/05 Matria Miavita Not disclosed Self-paced, algorithm-based lifestyle coaching online 11/02 Caremark Accordant $100 million DM specializing in chronic condition management 2/00 MediMedia StayWell Not disclosed Employer wellness, HRAs, coaching TARGET DESCRIPTION 89 Consumer Product, Media and Electronics Companies Several large and prominent corporations producing branded consumer goods, media and electronics are becoming active is sectors which will influence the growth of health e-games. Nike, Apple, Electronic Arts and Disney are a few representative examples. •Nike and Apple have partnered to develop the Nike + iPod Sport Kit System, which combines a Nike shoe wirelessly connected to an iPod Nano with an application designed to log, monitor and manage a user’s running activities. The Nike shoe features a microchip that tracks speed, distance, time and calories burned in real-time, and allows for verbalized feedback throughout a workout. The product merges the iPod’s convenience and quality-of-life benefit with Nike’s plan to support a wider spectrum of active experiences. While the Nike + is not technically a health e-game as defined herein, the product foreshadows developments that will blend exergaming with a mobile health anywhere experience. •Disney has set up a $300 million fund for gaming and social network acquisitions. In September 2008, Disney announced the formation of a fund to acquire video games and social networks that complement the family friendly Disney and ESPN brands. •Electronic Arts delivers casual game offerings and virtual worlds that support fun and health. Electronic Arts is engaged in a multi-front pursuit of new casual consumer targets such as tweens, families and women. The company offers Pogo.com online and EA Mobile, which is available to cell phone users as well as through Apple’s iPod. Meanwhile, EA Sports has revamped its Wii games lineup to take advantage of Wii’s motion sensing technology features. A virtual world called Club Pogo, which is populated by avatars, games, awards and micro-transactions, has hosted smoking-cessation and breast cancer awareness campaigns which have been very well received by community members. Health Plans – Driving Adoption and Development of Health e-Games Several of the largest health insurance companies in the United States are experimenting with health e-games to help improve member health and reduce claims. The outcomes of these early experiments will help shape the development of the next generation of health e-games. Notable examples include: •Apple has filed exergaming technology and program patents. In March 2008, AppleInsider reported that Apple had developed a digital fitness system for use with the iPhone and iPod Touch. Based on analyses of patent applications, the system features hardware based heart rate and physiological sensors to monitor the body during physical activity, as well as an iTunes like software application, a rewards tracker and a component that facilitates synchronous group activities. •Humana has launched Humana Games for Health (HG4H) so consumers can “play their way to better health.” Humana sponsored the exergaming exhibit hall at the May 2008 Games for Health Conference. •Inland Empire Health Plan was the first health maintenance organization (HMO) to fund a wellness oriented exergaming program through a partnership with the XRtainment Zone. •CIGNA has supported the promotion and distribution of HopeLab’s Re-Mission, a sophisticated video Health eGame and online community for young cancer patients. Since releasing Re-Mission in April 2006, HopeLab has distributed more than 125,000 free copies of the game in 80 countries. •In addition to their support for Re-Mission, CIGNA has launched a variety of health e-games activities including the creation of the Cigna Virtual Healthcare Community, a patient education island within Linden Lab’s Second 90 Life, where avatars walk through 3-D interactive displays, play educational games, listen to seminars on health and receive virtual consultations. •The Aetna Foundation funded Archimage to develop the Health eGame Food Fury as part of the “Games for Wellness” collaborative led by Dr. Cynthia Phelps of The University of Texas Health Science Center. This online healthy eating game targets 3rd-5th graders in order to teach and change their behavior around food choice and portion control. •Kaiser Permanente created The Amazing Food Detective and other online health e-games, which have been distributed to more than 5,000 schools, to teach the importance of balanced nutrition and health eating habits. VII. Conclusion Health e-games are an early-stage, large and rapidlygrowing market that holds promise for informed investors. The financial transactions and growth of the neighboring sectors deliver a series of positive indicators for the future of health e-games in terms of investment and exit potential. Venture investors and corporations are strongly encouraged to first examine the differences across the health e-game categories to understand how social and economic forces will drive unequal rates of growth and commercial success for exergames vs. brain games vs. healthy eating games vs. condition management games. This report concludes that exergames and brain games are ready for venture investment and corporate involvement, while e-games for healthy eating and condition management might require more time for business model development and market adoption. Key observations from this report are: •Large, Rapidly-Growing Market: This report estimates the health e-games market to be $6.6 billion, which includes trailing 12-month revenues for exergames and brain games but not healthy eating or condition management games because estimates are not available. Health e-games, along with casual games, will drive growth within non-traditional gaming markets, fueled in part by the commercial success of Nintendo’s interactive exergames, such as Wii Sports and Wii Fit (developed under Nintendo’s “productive entertain ment” strategy) and the growth of casual gaming among adults and women in particular. The video game industry is expected to grow 10.3% from 20072012. The health e-games segment is likely to grow even faster. •Solutions for Behavior Change: Health e-games combine fun with benefits. Entertaining design and features blend with a purpose or a specific health benefit, such as weight loss, fitness, smoking cessation, healthy eating, condition management, medication compliance, stress reduction or brain fitness. Well designed, consumer accessible health e-games are powerful tools for practical behavior change. •Leaders Enter the Market: Major healthcare enterprises such as Humana, CIGNA, Kaiser Perman ente, Aetna, NIH, CDC, and the RWJF have invested in health e-game development, marketing and distribution. There is growing investment from venture capital firms and involvement by multinational corporations including J&J, Nike, Apple, Kraft, Unilever, Google, and WebMD. •Potential Adoption from the SHM Sector: Companies in the growing $2.3 billion Specialized Health Management sector, such as Matria and Healthways, are in the business of motivating behavior change to reduce corporate healthcare costs. These organizations are currently experimenting with Web 2.0 technologies, such as social networks, user-generated video and wikis. Health e-games could be the next area of interest for SHM companies through near-term licensing leading to longer-term acquisition. •Measurable Impact: For health e-games to gain widespread adoption with SHM companies and health insurers, clinical research will need to demonstrate significant improvements in health promotion and cost reduction relative to existing solutions. For this reason, several dozen research studies are currently underway with leadership from the RWJF, Cornell University, UC San Diego School of Medicine, University of Florida, University of Washington School of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, among others. Physic Ventures has authored a separate white paper in collabora tion with Debra Lieberman, Director of RWJF’s Health Games Research program, which examines the empirical research demonstrating the efficacy of heath e-games in empowering healthy lifestyles, prevention and self-care. 91 VIII. Questions for Further Consideration Who Will Deliver and Capture Value? To date, Nintendo and Konami have been the only companies in the health e-game market that have been clear winners, commercially speaking. Will this change? Where will the value be created and captured in the next generation of the health e-games market? Do industry dynamics encourage wealth creation for start-up ventures? If so, which product categories are the most attractive in the near-term? What Will the Major Players Do? What strategies can we expect from the large video game companies with regards to health e-games? Will Electronic Arts, Viacom, Sony, Microsoft and others follow Nintendo’s lead? If so, will they enter the market with innovative products (“build”), will they enter through acquisition (“buy”) or neither? What are the opportunities and risks to these companies in integrating healthy messages into games which have been traditionally about pure entertainment? Pogo reports that, after fun, “health and wellness” is the #1 topic that its members care about, yet it is unclear whether the Pogo brand can really extend into health. Can Microsoft bridge their XBox and Health Vault groups? Do they want to? How Much of the Solution Do Video Games Deliver? Are video games the right approach to addressing youth obesity and sedentary lifestyles? While games like the Wii and Dance Dance Revolution are healthier than Grand Theft Auto and Halo, do these games really approach the health benefits of actual sports and outdoor recreation? What is the Right Health Message for Video Game Delivery? How should health literacy and support be best delivered in video games? In what situations should health messages be overt and primary? In what situations should health messages be stealth? In what situations should a game not contain any health message, but rather be used as incentive for healthy behavior such as testing blood glucose levels or exercising? What can we learn from past and current games on the market and the growing evidence and experience base? How Will Healthy Eating and Condition Management Games Become Commercially Viable? Will these categories continue to rely on grants and sponsorship, or will companies be able to develop viable direct-to-consumer business models for monetizing games that assist with everything from meal preparation to diabetes management? Is the lack of direct consumer sales offset by the potential of professional sales to enterprises which have vested financial and social reasons for people to prevent and better manage disease? Are ingame advertising or sponsorship models plausible? Can health e-games attain the scale and installed user base to attract significant advertising and sponsorship dollars? Does Nintendo’s strategy of “productive entertainment” deliver guidance to the entire health e-games sector? How Will SHM Integrate Health e-Games Into Their Solutions? How fast is the Specialized Health Management (SHM) industry likely to adopt health e-gaming into their toolkit of patient-centered support interventions? How would SHM companies, such as Matria and Healthways, integrate health e-game capabilities into their corporate wellness and disease management solutions? Build vs. buy? What will health e-games need to demonstrate in terms of clinical effectiveness and user experience to become an integral element of wellness and patient care support interventions by SHM companies, health plans, government and employers? About the Authors This market research report was a joint effort between Physic Ventures and iConecto. Andy Donner, a Director with Physic Ventures, co-authored the report in collaboration with Douglas Goldstein and Julia Loughran of iConecto. Physic Ventures Physic Ventures is the first venture capital firm dedicated to investing in consumer-driven health and living, providing capital and support to entrepreneurs focused on building exceptional science-based, consumer-directed health and sustainable living companies. The firm’s strategy is to capitalize on major economic, social and political trends shaping the landscape of personal and planetary health, including the rapid migration toward a consumerdriven, prevention-oriented “self-care” paradigm. 92 Andy Donner is a Director with Physic Ventures and leads the firm’s investment practice in “innovation channels” which include health e-games, Health 2.0, technology-enabled health services, corporate wellness, health monitoring and retail. Prior to joining Physic, Andy was a Senior Associate with Great Spirit Ventures, where he focused on consumer healthcare investments. Before Great Spirit Ventures, Andy held various operating roles in high-tech companies, serving as Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer with atMadison.com, Director of the Product Marketing at Entopia and head of new business opportunities for LeapFrog Enterprises in the healthcare industry. Andy’s career in financial services began as a member of Wasserstein Perella’s Technology M&A Group. Andy graduated with honors from Duke University’s pre-med program and earned his MBA at UC Berkeley. iConecto iConecto is a leading multimedia gaming technology, digital media and market research firm focused on health. The Health e-Games Market Report is the kick-off product of the company’s I4 – Information, Intelligence, Insights and Innovations – subscription service focused on health e-games, social media and virtual worlds, and their impact on people, professionals and enterprises involved in the health and medical industries. The company also sponsors Gaming4Health.com, which delivers daily health e-games news and a social networking portal for consumers and professionals to share their experiences in using all forms of health e-games to help improve personal health and professional performance. Douglas Goldstein is an “eFuturist” who delivers perspective and recommendations on how emerging and electronic technology and entertainment are revolutionizing our lives and organizations. He is the author of 10 widely regarded books on health and technology. Prior to the “Health e-Games Market Report – How Video Games, Social Media and Virtual Worlds will Revolutionize Health,” his most recent books were “eHealthcare – Harness the Power of e-Commerce and e-Care” and “Medical Informatics 20/20 – Quality and Electronic Health Records through Collaboration, Open Solutions and Innovation.” As a sought after keynote speaker, he catalyzes insights and motivates his audiences to use Distinctive Innovation™, digital media and their ingenuity to create a better future. He has served as CEO and senior executive of organizations that deliver innovative products and services that address emerging market opportunities in the wellness, health and entertainment fields. Julia Loughran is a foremost serious and casual games expert who has developed gaming strategy and solutions for the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, the Defense Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Non-Governmental Organizations and other government and commercial organizations worldwide. She is a co-author of the book “Virtual Teams: Contemporary Insights” and is a frequent speaker at industry events. Numerous publications feature interviews with Ms. Loughran for her technology expertise and insights, including Entrepreneur Magazine, The Washington Post, Washington Technology and Government Computer News. She is currently on the management team of iConecto and the owner and CEO of ThoughtLink, Inc. 93 References 1 Casual Games Association, Casual Games Market Report 2007, page 30. 2 http://www.businessandgames.com/blog/2008/04/reconciling_serious_games_mark.html 3 Nintendo presentation to Physic Ventures on September 18, 2008. 4 Nintendo public filing, Consolidated Sales Transition by Region, July 30, 2008.http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/library/historical_data/pdf/consolidated_sales_e0806.pdf 5 NPD Group January-July 2008 analysis http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_080821.html + December 2007 sales in Japan http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/wii-fit-sells-1m-in-japan 6 Casual Games Association, Casual Games Market Report 2007, page 30. 7 Nintendo public filing, Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ended March 2008: Supplementary Information. http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2008/080425e.pdf#page=6 8 iConecto analysis. 9 Pogo Presentation to Physic Ventures on September 18, 2008. 10 New York Times, P.E. Classes Turn to Video Game That Works Legs, April 30, 2007. 11 http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/122/2/e305 12 iConecto analysis. 13 Sourced from numerous sources including: Gaming4Health.com GameBase and other primary research and secondary sources such as From Atari Joyboard to Wii Fit: 25 years of “exergaming by Joel Johnson, May 15, 2008, http://gadgets.boingboing.net/2008/05/15/from-atari-joyboard.html, various Wikipedia entries and other video gaming Web sites. 14 http://www.majescoentertainment.com/news/display_news.php?id=289 15 http://www.hopelab.org/innovative-solutions/re-mission%E2%84%A2/ 16 Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service, National Health Expenditure Data: NHE Fact Sheet, February 26, 2008. 17 PlayFirst presentation to Physic Ventures on September 18, 2008, referencing data from ESA and DFC. 18 Nintendo presentation to Physic Ventures on September 18, 2008, referencing data from the NPD Group. 19 http://www.gamershell.com/companies/konami/229495.html (from Konami press release). 20 Nintendo public filing, Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ended March 2008: Supplementary Information, April 25, 2008, http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2008/080425e.pdf#page=6 21 http://darkzero.co.uk/game-news/sony-to-have-11-motion-tracking-sword-game-by-xmas/ 22 Actual January-September, estimated October-December 2008. 23 Nintendo public filing, Financial Results Briefing for the Fiscal Year Ended March 2008: Supplementary Information. http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2008/080425e.pdf#page=6 24 iConecto analysis 25 California Health Foundation, The Wisdom of the Crowds: Health Media Meets Online Social Media, April 2008. 26 Pogo’s Vice President of Marketing during a September 18, 2008 meeting with Physic Ventures. 27 Pogo Presentation to Physic Ventures on September 18, 2008. © 2008 Physic Ventures, LLC. All Rights Reserved.