Powertrain 2020

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Powertrain 2020

Powertrain 2020
A PERSPECTIVE FOR CHINA
SHENYANG, October 31st, 2008
081013_PT2020_Challenges_Opportunities_Shenyang.pptx
1
Di l i
Disclaimer
> The conclusions and recommendations in this document are based on market
knowledge of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants or drawn from information
and data gathered through desk research and interviews
> Interviews reflect the opinions of experts at individual companies and do not
necessarily reflect the official opinion of the interviewee's organization
> The statements made by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants are based on
assumptions held to be accurate on the basis of the information available
> Roland Berger Strategy Consultants assumes no liability for the correctness
of the information and statements made within this document as well as for
actions undertaken upon this document
> The document is for personal use only and not to be disclosed to third parties
2
INDEX
A. Tougher Regulations – Scarce Resources:
The industry is forced to decrease emissions and fuel consumption
B. Powertrain Challenges:
OEMs need to work on a broad technology portfolio
C. Electric Vehicles:
Open issues likely to be mastered – EVs could gain a significant market share
D. Opportunities for the Chinese Automotive Industry
© 2008 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH
3
A. Tougher Regulations – Scarce Resources: The automotive industry
is forced to decrease emissions and fuel consumption
4
The automotive
Th
t
ti industry
i d t is
i forced
f
d tto decrease
d
emissions
i i
and
d
fuel consumption
Legislative plans in major car growth regions
The EU will introduce tough CO2
emission targets that need to be met
byy OEM car fleets in the near future
The US plan a
significant reduction of
fleet fuel consumption
and requires a share of
zero-emission vehicles
(ZEV) in California
2
1
3
4
China needs to slow
down the growth of oil
consumption and regulates fuel consumption
Japan will probably apply
similar
i il limits
li it to
t the
th EU
Source: Roland Berger
5
The EU will
Th
ill introduce
i t d
ttough
h CO2 emission
i i targets
t
t that
th t need
d to
t
be met by OEM car fleets in the near future
EU CO2 EMISSION TARGETS (g/km)
185
2008
161
2012
> European commission requires to
reduce CO2 emission to 130 g/km
until 20121) (comparable to 5.2 l
gasoline,
li 44.88 l di
diesel)l)
2020
152
> Target 2020: 95 g/km
(4.0 l gasoline, 3.6 l diesel)
130
> Individual OEM targets based on
vehicle weight, penalties if not
reached between 15-90 EUR/g
2025
2022
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
95
1995
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
STATUS QUO
> CO2 tax for consumers planned,
EUR 2-EUR 7 per g/year (over a
certain limit)
1) Additional 10 g/km by improvements of tires, HVAC, use of biofuels, etc.
Source: ACEA; press, European Parliament, Roland Berger research
6
Nearly
N
l allll western
t
EU mandate
d t CO2 taxation
t ti and
d severall cities
iti
implemented a congestion tax
COMMENTS
Bergen
Oslo
Stockholm
Edinburgh
Durhan
Manchester
> Nearly all western EU
countries adopted tax relief to
promote the purchase of low
pollution vehicles
> Several cities in Italy, France,
UK and Scandinavia also
adopted city congestion tax
L d
London
Paris
Milan
Bologna
Rome
> In most major German cities
pollution free "green"
green zones
rather than real congestion
charges are implemented1)
Country adopting CO2 tax reduction
City adopting congestion tax
1) Obligatory environmental badge is available in three colors which describes the category to which the car is allocated together with the restrictions
7
IIn China,
Chi Automotive
A t
ti becomes
b
a key
k driver
d i for
f total
t t l crude
d oilil
consumption and is facing increasing demand pressure
Crude oil consumption in China [tons m]
80
450
Automotive crude oil consumption
Percentage of automotive oil consumption in total
70
60
50
30
197
161
147
228
28.5
211
20.3
10
0
11
1993
7.5
12
1995
40
1997
48
1999
65
57.0
34.4
256
36.8
83
300
250
200
167
110
400
350
44.0
22.7
20
7.5
249
33.3
380
347
320
40
500
475
T t l crude
Total
d oilil consumption
ti
128
150
100
50
2001
2003
2005
2006
2010E
2020E
0
National energy security is threatened as automotive crude oil consumption is growing
Source: China energy yearbook; China statistic bureau; Roland Berger
9
Consequently,
C
tl ffuell price
i hhas iincreased
d steadily
t dil – fuel
f l accounts
t
for more than 50% of costs of driving a passenger car
FUEL PRICE IN CHINA [RMB/TON]
SHARE OF FUEL COSTS ON TOTAL COSTS
(PASSENGER CAR)
7805
8000
7500
Gasoline
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
6930
7000
Diesel
6500
Other Costs
6000
5401
5500
5509
5047
5000
4642
4500
4049
4000
3627
4745
4022
Fuel Costs
3500
3000
2004
2005
Source: FAW, Roland Berger
2006
2007
2008
10
N
New
regulations
l ti
limit
li it ffuell consumption
ti
Fuel consumption limits China (phase II from January 2008)
l/100 km
15
g CO2/100 km (gasoline)
375
14
333
309
13
Vehicles with either
- ATM or
- 3 or more seats/row
12
11
285
262
10
238
9
214
Vehicles with manual
transmission
8
190
Source: CATARC; SEPA; Roland Berger
≤2,110 kg
≤2,510 kg
≤2,280 kg
≤2,110 kg
≤2,000 kg
≤1,880 kg
≤1,770 kg
≤1,540 kg
≤1,660 kg
≤1,4430 kg
≤1,320 kg
≤1,205 kg
≤1,090 kg
143
≤980 kg
6
≤865 kg
167
≤750 kg
7
RATIONALE/EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT
> Weight-dependent fuel consumption
limits to reduce oil consumption:
> 2004: 120 m tons oil
oil, import >40% (6%
of total import)
> 2020: >600 m tons oil (~ USA 2006)
> Adaptation of Western standards in
mid-term
mid
term (China IV stage emission
standard equals EURO IV, to be
introduced in Bejing in early 2008,
nationwide in 2010)
> "The state will gguide and encourage
g the
development of clean and fuel efficient
vehicles with small displacement, lead
consumers to buy and use low energy
consumption, low pollution, small
displacement, new energy and new power
vehicles"
11
The newly
Th
l iintroduced
t d d consumption
ti tax
t will
ill heavily
h il influence
i fl
sales and pricing of cars with large engine displacements
Consumption tax rate in China as of Sept. 1st, 2008
E i (cm
Engine
( 3)
E
Example
l off VW Model
M d l
Before
B
f
09/2008
After
Aft
09/2008
Costt to
C
t consumer
(Aug. 2008 = 100)1)
≤ 1,000
–
3%
1%
98
1,000-1,500
Polo 1.4
3%
3%
100
1 500-2 000
1,500-2,000
Jetta Bora,
Jetta,
Bora Golf,
Golf Sagitar
Sagitar, Magotan
Magotan, …
5%
5%
100
2,000-2,500
–
9%
9%
100
2,500-3,000
–
12%
12%
100
3,000-4,000
Phaeton, Touareg, Magotan 3.2
15%
25%
113
≥ 4,000
Phaeton 4.2/6.0, Touareg 4.2/6.0
20%
40%
125
1) Assuming that import cost is usually overseas ex-factory price plus shipping price excl. insurance rate, 5% inspection fee and dealership mark-up; tax increased passed through
12
NOx and
NO
d PM emission
i i limits
li it will
ill increase
i
– Relevant
R l
t today
t d only
l
for Diesel engines, but in future also for gasoline
Diesel emissions standards for passenger cars
Particulate matter [g/km]
0 16
0.16
COMMENTS
0.14
1998
Euro 2
(1996)
0.12
0.10
Japan
2001
0.08
0.06
2003
2004
USA (CARB)
2004
0.04
0 02
0.02
0.00
2007
0.0
0.1
> European, American and
Japanese emission stand d will
dards
ill converge in
i the
h
near future
Euro 3
(2000)
LSA (EPA)
Euro 4 (2005)
2007
2007
Euro 5 (2008)
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Japan Euro 61)
2001 (2014)
> NOx is relevant for both
diesel and gasoline, PM
relevant currentlyy for
diesel engines only
0.7
0.8
0.9
NOx [g/km]
> As a result, heavy investments will be needed in
exhaust aftertreatment
and new technologies to
optimize the combustion
process
1) Proposed
Note: EPA = Environmental Protection Agency; CARB = California Air Resources Board
Source: EPA; CARB; EU Commission; JAMA; Roland Berger
13
IIn emerging
i markets,
k t emission
i i standards
t d d will
ill ffurther
th titighten
ht
too, the "gap" to European standards will narrow down
Introduction of emission standards for passenger cars in selected growth markets
2000
2005
2010
2015
CHINA
Euro 1
Euro 2
Euro 3
Euro 4
Euro 5
Euro 6
INDIA
Euro 1 Euro 2
Euro 3
RUSSIA
Introduction
Expected introduction
Euro 4
> Standards are based on European
regulations – introduction with
significant
g
time lag
g
> Stricter regulations in urban areas
> Indian "Bharat stages" are also
based on European regulations
> Introduction starts in Delhi1) first,
then spreads throughout the country
Euro 4
Euro 2 Euro 3
COMMENTS
Euro 5
> Introduction of European regulations is planned with a time lag of
approx. 3-4 years
Regional distribution after introduction – capital city, industrial regions, entire country
1) And selected major cities/industrial areas
Source: Dieselnet; Roland Berger
14
Megacities
M
iti will
ill play
l a major
j role
l iin ffuture
t
regulations
l ti
– 45 cities
iti
attended second C40 Large Cities Climate Summit in May 2007
COLORADO
SmartTrips website:
Reduces drive
drive-alone
alone
trips and increases
biking, walking and
public transit in
specific
p
cityy area
NEW YORK CITY (PlaNYC)
Extensive environmental approach
including e.g. waiving of NYCs sales
tax on cleanest, most efficient
vehicles and introduction of
congestion charges
MEXICO CITY
Replaced 33,000
000
taxis with more
fuel efficient
models
CURITIBA (Brazil)
Roadway "arteries" in which
traffic is more fuel-efficient and
bordered by plantings that both
combat carbon emissions and
increase biodiversity
Source: C40 Large Cities Climate Summit; Roland Berger
COPENHAGEN
City of Cyclists – over 36% of the city's
population cycling to work every day
SEOUL
Car-free days have reduced CO2 emissions by
10% annually
BEIJING
Vehicles with high emissions are only allowed to
take certain roads within
the city (emission level
marked through labels)
C40 Large Cities Summit objectives:
> Drive down carbon emissions
> Accelerate action on climate change
> Next meeting planned in Seoul, 2009
15
IIn the
th Shanghai
Sh h i area, six
i demonstration
d
t ti parks
k have
h
been
b
planl
ned with over 1,000 electric vehicles in pilot operation by 2010
SHANGHAI ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEMO AREA
COMMENTS
Long-term
Temporary
Chongming Eco Island
JJiading
ad g International
te at o a Auto
uto C
City
ty
Total
Bus
Car
Mini EV
100
60
-
40
Total
Bus
Car
Mini EV
100
30
-
70
> Shanghai EXPO will 100% adopt zero emission
vehicles not only inside the EXPO park but also
in the surrounding areas
> A temporary EXPO electric vehicle
demonstration park will be established with 160
cars and 340 buses in operation by 2010
Pudong Demo Area
Total
Bus
Car
Mini EV
100
50
-
50
Total
Bus
Car
Mini EV
Inside
320
160
40
120
Outside
180
180
-
-
Downtown Demo Area
Total
Bus
Car
Mini EV
100
50
-
50
EXPO Demo Area
Jinshan Hybrid Demo Area
Total
Bus
100
-
Car
Mini EV
100
-
> 5 long-term demo parks have also been
planned in order to meet the requirement of
programs like the establishment of Chongming
Eco Island and Jiading International Auto City
> Over 11,000
000 electric vehicles will be showcased
in Shanghai
– Started in 2008
– Multistaged pilot with increasing number of
vehicles
Note: Buses and cars refer to hybrid or fuel cell vehicles, while mini EV refers to pure battery-driven vehicles
Source: SCEC; Roland Berger
16
B. Powertrain Challenges:
OEMs need to work on a broad technology portfolio
17
Global
Gl
b l OEMs
OEM will
ill focus
f
on bboth
th optimizing
ti i i the
th iinternal
t
l
combustion engine and on long-range electrical propulsion
Technology focus and
priorities
CO
OMBUSTION
N ENGINE
…
Integrated
g
hybrid
+ boost, short
E-Drive
+ stop
stop-start
start
recuperation
+ plug-in
E-Drive with ICE
range extender
"Conventional"
ICE
Pure EV
EV with
Fuel Cell range
extender
ELECTRICAL PROPULSION
Source: Volkswagen, Roland Berger
18
With technologies
t h l i available
il bl in
i nextt generation
ti engines,
i
signii i
ficant reductions of CO2 and fuel consumptions are possible
CO2/fuel reduction potential of selected technologies
LEVER
TECHNOLOGY
SAVING POTENTIAL [%]
0
Thermodynamic
efficiency
Variable valve timing/lift
Direct injection
j
Mechanical
friction
Reduced engine friction1)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Stratified charge
g ((lean burn/compl. strategies)
g )
Downsizing
Cylinder
y
deactivation
Optimized cooling circuit2)
With regenerative braking
Start-stop
Weight reduction
30% BiW (~9% vehicle weight)
Electrically assisted steering
Calibration
of all powertrain
systems
Dual-clutch transmission
Optimized gearbox ratios
Range possible CO2 savings
Additional CO2 savings potential
1) e.g., new cylinder construction, use of roller rocking lever, reduction of moving mass 2) Incl. electric water pump
Source: TNO; IEEP; Roland Berger
19
Various
V
i
llayouts
t off hybrid
h b id powertrains
t i are in
i use – Layouts
L
t with
ith
E-Motors close to the axle allow pure electrical driving
Examples of powertrain layouts used (front-wheel)
Starter and
generator
Belt starter/
generator
Crankshaft
starter/
generator
Parallel
hybrid
Power
split
hybrid
Serial
hybrid
EV
1)
3)
1)
Secondary
electric
axle
2)
4)
2)
2)
FOCUS – ELECTRIC DRIVING POSSIBLE/PLUG-IN
ICE
1) Generator
Gearbox
Clutch
E-motor
2) Starter 3) Belt starter/generator 4) ISG
Source: Roland Berger analysis
20
Technical
T
h i l solutions
l ti
are ddefined
fi d bby ffunctionality
ti lit and
d llayouts
t –
complexity requires clear strategy to allow economies of scale
Functionality
Layout Starter and
generator
> Start-stop
Start-stop
Recuperation
Boost
E-Drive (short)1)
Plug-in
g
Start-stop
Recuperation
Boost
E-Drive (medium)1)
>
>
>
>
Plug-in
R
Range
extender
t d
Recuperation
E-Drive (long)3)
Crankshaft
starter/
generator
Smart mdh
Citröen G3
start-stop
Mercedes
S400
BlueHybrid
Parallel hybrid Power split
hybrid
Secondary
e-axle
Porsche
Cayenne
hybrid
Mercedes
ML450
BlueHybrid
Toyota Prius
Lexus RX
400H
Audi Helio
Project (A1)
Mercedes
S-Class
plug-in
Toyota
y Prius
(next
generation)
Serial hybrid
GM Volt
> Pure E-Drive
> Recuperation
Other denotations
E-Drive
BMW start
stop
> Start-stop
> Recuperation
> Boost
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Belt starter/
generator
Tesla
Roadster4)
MICRO
MILD
MILD/
STRONG
FULL HYBRID
ELECT. SEC.
AXLE
EV WITH
RANGE EXT.
EV
1) Up to 3 hours 2) Up to 50 hours 3) More than 50 hours 4) Recuperation
Source: Roland Berger analysis
21
Mild andd full
f ll hybrids
h b id will
ill see a broader
b d application
li ti especially
i ll
with larger vehicles, combined with downsized engines
CO2 emission1) [g/km] per vehicle by weight
130
EU Objective 2012
95
EU Objective 2020
kg
Small cars
Compact
1) CO2 emissions according to NEDC
Source: IAV; Roland Berger
Medium
Large
cars
SUV
Off-Road
22
Hybrid
H
b id vehicles
hi l with
ith high
hi h electric
l t i range will
ill h
have a significant
i ifi t
advantages in certification
-5-10%
Fuel
consumption of
ICE
Start Stop
Optimized
Fuel
operating point consumption
and energy
Hybrid
regenerating
Emissions in
NEDC due to
E-Motor drive
Emissions in
NEDC due to
ICE drive
Add: Delta in
battery charge
Certified
emissions/
fuel consumption
Drive NEDC w/ battery charged … w/ battery
discharged
-15-26%
15 26%
Plug-in-Hyb
brid
-1012%
CERTIFICATION POSSIBILITIES
Conventtionel Hybrid
REDUCED FUEL CONSUMPTION OF
HYBRIDS
Weighted
25 km/(25 km+E-RW)
Weighted
E-RW/(25 km+E-RW)
Emissions in
NEDC due to
ICE drive
Emissions in
NEDC due to
E-Motor drive
Emissions in
NEDC due to
ICE drive
Certified
emissions/
fuel consumption
E-RW: Electric range
Source: European commission for economy (rule 101)
23
C. Electric Vehicles:
C
Open issues likely to be mastered – EVs can gain a significant market share
24
Open issues
O
i
can probably
b bl b
be mastered
t d – EVs
EV will
ill mostt lik
likely
l
gain a significant market share
OPEN ISSUES
MARKET SHARE EV IN % OF NEW CAR SALES
Battery power/energy/safety/cost
“The future drives Electric”-Scenario, WESTERN EUROPE, 2020
E M t supply/cost
E-Motor
l / t
Infrastructure availability
Business case for
> Customer
> OEM
> Utility
Vehicle offerings
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
ICE
PHEV
EV
2010
2015
22%
2020
25
Until
U
til 2020
2020, Li
Li-Ion
I batteries
b tt i will
ill provide
id a significant
i ifi t d
driving
i i
range with lower costs
Overview of the EVs driving range evolution (" The future drives Electric“ scenario)
EV RANGE EVOLUTION FROM TODAY TO 2020 – (km)
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS
400
300
200 kg
200
100
0
Energy density
(Wh/kg)
Battery capacity
(kWh)
Battery costs
(EUR/kWh)
Ni-MH today Li-Ion 2010 Li-Ion 2015 Li-Ion 2020
60
100
125
180
12
20
25
36
250
400
300
200
> Consumption1):
12.5 kWh/100 km
> Vehicle GVW2):
1,100 kg
> Battery capacity by 2010:
20 kWh
> Battery weight: 200 kg –
kept constant over the
years
> Battery and vehicle improvements over time
considered – (battery DoD,
DoD
vehicle air drag coefficient)
1) Without auxiliary system consumption (e.g. HVAC); average city cycle speed of 25 km/h 2) Driver included
Source: Interviews with key battery suppliers, Roland Berger analysis
26
Main
M
i battery
b tt suppliers
li have
h
different
diff
t technological
t h l i l approaches
h
to achieve development targets
Overview of major Li-Ion material compositions and selected suppliers
KEY DEVELOPMENT
TARGETS
ELECTRO
OLYTE
Li-metal
polymer
>
>
>
>
>
Li-Ion
polymer
(gel)
Energy density
Life cycle
Safety
Costs
Fast charging
capability
Li-Ion
Li
Ion
Cobalt
Manganoxid
Iron
phosphate
Manganese
spinel
CATHODE
Source: CARB, interviews with Key Battery Suppliers, Roland Berger
27
Differentt Hybrid,
Diff
H b id PHEV and
d EV powertrain
t i performance
f
needs
d
favor different E-Motor layouts
Sinus field machines and potential automotive applications
Permanent energized synchro
synchronous machine
PRO
CON
Potential
application
Copper coil
Internally permanent energized
machine
> Power to weight ratio
> Efficiency at low speed and at high load
>
>
>
>
Complex control
Low efficiency at max. speed
High cost
Complex safeguarding
> Hybrid drive
> For long distance applications only with
transmission possible
Magnetic
reluctance
machine
Synchron
reluctance
machine
Asynchronous
machine
> Design and cost
> Efficiency
> Power to weight
ratio
> Very simple design
> Very low cost
> Design and cost
> Efficiency throughout entire speed
and load spectrum
> Simple control
> Complex control
> Maturity
> Very low power
density
> Power to weight
ratio
> In discussion
> None
> Long distance drive
for electric vehicles
Solenoids
Source: Roland Berger expert interviews
28
Supplier
S
li basis
b i for
f E-Motors
EM t
ffor pure electric
l t i driving
d i i is
i limited
li it d –
Inhouse production can be an interesting alternative
Sources for E-Drive motors
High
INHOUSE INDUSTRIALIZATION
of existing expert concepts
Fit off
existing
concepts
for E-Drive
applications
Partnering with
AUTOMOTIVE E/E
SUPPLIER
Low
Low
> Licensing dedicated automotive concepts of small
E-Motor experts
> Inhouse industrialization with opportunity to benefit
from scale effects and low-costs
> e.g. Bosch, Continental
> Limited product offers for E-Drive applications
> E-Motor competencies and resources currently
needed for Hybrid projects
> Large E-motor experience form train and machine
tool applications
Leverage NON AUTOMOTIVE > Dedicated
D di t d automotive
t
ti products
d t needd to
t be
b
E-Motor SUPPLIER base
developed
> Chinese supply base large and could be
competitive
Good
Base for
B
f
industrialization
29
A charging
h i infrastructure
i f t t
is
i a prerequisite
i it for
f customer
t
acceptance – Various utilities work on it in different countries
Key EV charging infrastructure components
AT HOME
AT PUBLIC SPACES
AT WORK
Charging
g g station at home
Charging
g g stations at ppublic
spaces
Charging
g g stations at work
and other non-public places
"Sense of infinity" for EV infrastructure needed from the very beginning!
30
Utilities are evaluating where to position along the E-Mobility
value chain – several utilities in Europe have OEM-partnerships
E-MOBILITY VALUE CHAIN
Generation
Grid
Recharge grid
Add-on services
> Additional electricity demand by customers charging electric
vehicles, e.g. at home
> Additional turnover in generation, grid fees and retail – without any
change in business model
> Offer of recharge
infrastructure in
public places
> Premium
P i for
f
access to
infrastructure
> Call/billing for
E Mobility
E-Mobility
> Special tariffs
> Vehicle to grid
> Battery services/
l i
leasing
> Product bundles
including car offers
PASSIVE APPROACH
Focusing on core business and hoping for fair market shares
in generation, grid & retail
ACTIVE APPROACH
Approach new market with new business
model to tap potential
Retail1)
Utility core business – power generation & supply
Defined return at low risk
Upside potential
at some risk
?
To be evaluated
1) Without add-on services
31
Life cycle
Lif
l costs
t off EVs
EV could
ld become
b
llower than
th off cars with
ith
an ICE1) – Especially if taxes are taken into account
ICE/EV life cycle cost comparison in 2010/2020
LIFE CYCLE COST IN GERMANY [EUR]
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
>
>
>
>
NPV perspective over 12 years
Discount rate of 6%
Mil
Mileage
off 180
180,000
000 kkm
Vehicle purchase price remains constant (ICE and
EV similarly expensive, without battery)
> Gasoline and electricityy price with 6% CAGR
> Subsidies and CO2 taxes not taken into account
-20%
+6%
47,705
40,887
38,604
38,226
5,663
5,624
17,660
26,761
10,142
4,484
12,000
3 344
3,344
17,600
3 344
3,344
0
17,600
17,600
0
2010
2020
Battery costs [EUR]
12 000
12,000
6 000
6,000
Consumption
ICE consumption [l/100 km]
6.5
5.5
VAT
EV electricity consumption [kWh/100 km]
14.5
14.5
Gasoline price [EUR/l]
1.60
2.90
Electricity price [EUR/kWh]
0.23
0.41
6,000
17,600
Battery
V hi l
Vehicle
ICE 2010
EV 2010
ICE 2020
EV 2020
1) internal combustion engine
Source: Center for Global Energy Studies, Roland Berger analysis
32
Over 20 EV/PHEV models
O
d l ffrom leading
l di OEM
OEMs and
d newcomers
are expected to enter the market until 2012
Overview of EV/PHEV global offering – 2008 to 2012
2008
Think City
A0, A AND
B SEGMENT
C D
C,
SEGMENT
AND SUV
2009
2010
Subaru
R1e
Mitsubishi
iMiEV
Nice Cars
Zero
Tata
Indica
XS 500
F6DM
ZAP X
G
SEGMENT
Tesla
Roadster
Source: Press, Roland Berger
Nissan Cube
'Tata Nano
Smart EV
F3e; F3DM
Prius Plug-in GM Volt
Opel E-Flex
2011
2012
Mercedes
A-class EV?
Toyota
IQ, EV?
e6
Tesla
Whitestar?
VW
UP, EV?
GM
Saturn Vue?
Fisker
Automotive
33
By 2020 allll established
B
t bli h d OEMs
OEM andd a lot
l t off new players
l
will
ill have
h
entered the EV market in the EU
EU: Overview of estimated electric vehicle market penetration
2008-2010
FIRSTMOVER
WAVE
Limited volume of
"a new type of EVs"
New Prius
Plug-in
"SECOND"MOVER
WAVE
2011-2015
Miles
XS 500
Mitsubishi
MiEV
Positive market
response and
volume ramp-up
ramp up
Second-generation
EVs at competitive
costs
t and
d improved
i
d
performance
All major players
enter the EV market
"Second" movers
benefit strongly
from the first wave
Opel Nissan
E-Flex "Citycar"
Tesla
Whitestar
MB
EV
BROAD
MARKET
PENEPENE
TRATION
2016-2020
… Renault VW NSF BMW
EV V
EV-Vers.
Citycar
Cit
"Citycar""
"Cit
Chinese and all other players
enter the market with comp. EVs
BYD
Miles
2. Gen
Ford?
…
34
PRELIMINARY
Preliminary
P
li i
estimates
ti t show
h a significant
i ifi t share
h off sold
ld PHEV
PHEVs
and EVs in a likely scenario
Share of powertrain type [% of sold cars]
Western Europe
Japan
3.2
0.8
0.9
2.7
5.1
19 1
19.1
4.2
2015
2020
US
2015
2020
2015
2020
China
3.3
1.2
0.8
Downsized mobility
7.4
1.1
2.1
2.2
2015
2020
PHEV
EV
The Future Drives Electric
PHEV
EV
35
D. Opportunities for the Chinese Automotive Industry
36
Major
M
j hi
historical
t i l advantages
d t
off iincumbent
b t OEMs
OEM are off little
littl value
l
since electric vehicles have specific business characteristics
Advantage incumbent OEMs vs. "new players"
Incumbent
OEM
advantage
?
R&D
Production
Marketing
Sales
After Sales
New skills
needed
Starts as
"niche"
Fit to
brand?
Focus
metropolises
Changing
services
> Electrochemistry/
battery technology
> E-motor design
> Energy management
> ...
> Flexible low-scale
manufacturing
> Low-cost footprint
> ...
> Current brand
positioning/image
> Heritage, customer
expectations
> Pricing/cannibalization
> ...
> Network size/
location
> "Flagship" stores,
partnerships
> ...
> Staff qualification
> Complete vehicle
design capabilities
> Quality and supply
chain management
capabilities
> Marketing budget
> Financial services
> Network infrastructure
> ...
> ...
> ...
> ...
> ...
> ...
37
New players
N
l
ffrom emerging
i markets
k t can leverage
l
their
th i
low-cost structures
COST STRUCTURE AVERAGE CAR IN WESTERN
EUROPE (OEM + Tiers)
EMERGING MARKET PLAYERS
Material
By leveraging factor 10 lower
personnel costs,
costs costs can be
driven down to less than 50%
10%
Others
Depreciation & amortization
Administration & marketing
Logistics
R&D
7%
4%
3%
3%
3%
70%
Total personnel costs
Source: Roland Berger study "The Next Wave: Emerging Market Innovation – Threats and Opportunities" 081013_PT2020_Challenges_Opportunities_Shenyang.pptx
38
Famous Chinese
F
Chi
companies
i have
h
already
l d successfully
f ll leveraged
l
d
their cost advantages to conquer established markets
Successful strategies of famous Chinese companies
HIGH-TECH AT LOW-COST
VARIETY AT LOW-COST
SPECIALITY AT LOW-COST
Dawning Information Industry:
Supercomputers, Servers
BYD: Rechargeable batteries
(Li-ion)
Shinco: Portable DVD players and
navigation systems
1990:
Spin-Off from University
First Sales to Government
1995:
Japanese companies global market share
>90% - market entry through NiCad with
own low-cost equipment and highly flexible,
manual labor
1994:
Video Compact Discs seen as niche
market, low investments of established
players, Shinco entering with own special
technology with error correction capabilities
1998:
Contracts with Phillips and VTech (cordless
phone market leader)
1997:
1997
11 m. VCD players sold in China, reducing
costs by 80%
Establishing US-R&D center
2001:
2,000 supercomputers sold,
Low-end server I220 launched
2000:
Entering Li-ion, local equipment and high
vertical integration.
Motorola allocates 30% of purchasing
2007:
"Dawning 4000" ranked #7 globally
2008:
BYD global #1 in Li-ion batteries
1999:
DVD player with error correction – 28% in
China, 120$ cheaper
2007:
Shinco global #1 in portable DVD players,
expanding in portable GPS navigation
systems
1993:
Fi own supercomputer bbuilt
First
il ffrom
components available in market
( clustering standard chips)
Source: Zheng/Williamson: "Dragons at your door"; Roland Berger
39
Market
M
k t segments
t considered
id d as ""non-core"" by
b established
t bli h d OEM
OEMs
might be the "loose bricks in the walls" to enter these markets
Specialty at low-cost
"LOW-END" segments:
Ultra-Low-Cost Cars
"PERIPHERAL" markets:
Denmark, Israel, Norway, …
SUCCESS IN
EUROPEAN
CORE
MARKETS
"NICHE" segments:
t
Electric vehicles
High-Tech
at low-cost
Variety
at low-cost
40
Chinese OEM
Chi
OEMs should
h ld move fforward
d aggressively
i l and
d define
d fi an
hybrid and electric vehicle strategy also targeted for export
Understand opportunities both in China and in “developed”
developed countries (e.g.
(e g
UK, France, Portugal, Scandinavia, Israel, …):
market development, taxes/subsidies, …
Develop
p pproduct and technology
gy strategy,
gy, define focus of own
competences and consider partnerships/acquisitions to get technology
access especially in hybrid/electric drivetrains
Define and realize export strategy –
starting from low-end and niche-segments and peripheral markets
41
Chinese supply
Chi
l base
b
needs
d to
t address
dd
key
k success ffactors
t
tto
thrive in the changing powertrain landscape
Understand functions and interfaces of relevant components in the context
of complete powertrain – Deliver best components
Cost innovation to benefit from ggrowth opportunities
pp
Leverage better cost structure
Define own strategy to achieve economies of scale –
Consider partnerships/acquisitions to get technology access especially
42
Pl
Please
contact
t t us for
f further
f th information
i f
ti
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart
PARTNER
Stuttgart Office
Jun Shen
PARTNER
Shanghai Office
Loeffelstrasse 46
70597 Stuttgart, Germany
1515 Nanjing West Road
Shanghai 200040, China
Bus.: +49 (711) 3275-7421
Mobile: +49 (160) 7447421
E-mail: [email protected]
Bus.: +86 (21) 52986677-874
Mobile: +86 (1350) 1762216
E-mail: [email protected]
43

Powertrain 2020

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