2013 Fantasy Baseball Guide

Transcription

2013 Fantasy
Baseball Guide
Matt Commins
3/16/2013
Matt Commins |1
Table of Contents
Foreword....................................................................................................................................................... 2
Know Your League ........................................................................................................................................ 3
Statistical/Sabermetric Baselines.................................................................................................................. 5
Player Evaluation .......................................................................................................................................... 8
Draft Strategy .............................................................................................................................................. 10
Scouting Primer ........................................................................................................................................... 21
2013 Bold Predictions ................................................................................................................................. 23
Position Previews ........................................................................................................................................ 27
Catcher .................................................................................................................................................... 28
First Base ................................................................................................................................................. 23
Second Base ............................................................................................................................................ 24
Shortstop................................................................................................................................................. 24
Third Base ............................................................................................................................................... 27
Outfield ................................................................................................................................................... 28
Starting Pitcher ....................................................................................................................................... 29
Closers ..................................................................................................................................................... 32
Hitter Profiles .............................................................................................................................................. 32
Pitcher Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 157
Extremely Helpful Resources .................................................................................................................... 226
Matt Commins |2
Foreword
Hello. My name is Matt Commins and this is my first draft guide. I’ve written capsules (profiles) for
players that could conceivably be owned in a standard 12 team mixed league. So readers expecting to
read about Emmanuel Burriss will be extremely disappointed. Also, I didn’t write profiles for closers for
one simple reason, you’re going to own a closer regardless of their deficiencies. There’s only 30 (more or
less) at one point in the season so you’re going to own Chris Perez no matter how bad he is.
A little bit about me and my background. Most reading pattern studies show when readers see the
phrase “about me” and “background” in the same sentence they ignore the entire paragraph. If this is
true I could say the most base and obscene thing and totally get away with it. But I’ll save that for next
year.
I’ve played fantasy baseball for ten years. When I first started playing I had no idea how to evaluate
players, let alone advanced statistics. So needless to say I finished in the bottom half of my leagues for
the first few years. However, in the past three seasons I’ve consistently finished in the top three in every
league I’ve played in. Last year, I won both my jelly bean leagues and finished in second place in the 16team Up and In Baseball Prospectus league on ESPN, which meant the most to me because I was playing
with insanely smart baseball fans. I performed well in my leagues by looking at advanced statistics and
not scouting the box score. For example, check out the box score below:
IP
8
H
3
R
0
ER
0
HR
0
BB
3
SO
0
Looks pretty good right? That was Tommy Milone’s first start of the 2012 season against the Kansas City
Royals. I was at the game (with the other 100 fans) and saw he benefited from great defense and a low
BABIP. The numbers look like he dominated the Royals with superior stuff but in fact his stuff was fringe
average that played up because of Oakland’s defense and ballpark.
I quit my day job last summer and I spent that time in the meth-den known as the Cal League watching
High-A baseball and trying to learn the nuances of scouting from other scouts. My writing will attempt to
provide a unique perspective to fantasy baseball analysis that combines scouting and statistical analysis.
One disclaimer. This is my fantasy guide and I can do what I want. If I decided to rank a player over
another player despite a lack of statistical evidence and/or based perceived biases, you can’t stop me.
Even though I live in San Francisco, I dislike the Giants ownership and their fan base. Subsequently, my
ranking of the Giants players were probably negatively affected. This isn’t fair or balanced, but we all
have our biases; it’s what makes us human.
A lot of time and effort has been poured into this guide. The goal is to help owners who want to think
for themselves and are looking for new ideas on player evaluation. If you have any questions or ideas on
how to make my guide better feel free to hit me up on twitter @MattCommins. I wrote the guide out of
Matt Commins |3
a labor of love so any feedback, even if its criticism would mean the world to me. Since I wrote this
myself I’m very certain you will find typos and grammatical errors. I tried my best to catch all of them,
but if you find some I apologize ahead of time.
Know Your League
Every fantasy pundit recommends this every year and even mentioning it seems reductive, but you’ll be
surprised how often fantasy owners spend all this time on draft prep only to realize they’re league is
different than what they prepared for. If you’re playing in a league for jelly beans, make sure the league
has Constitution that contains rules that will govern all disputes and questions for the entire year.
Types of Leagues
Shallow Leagues: The size of these leagues is 12 owners or less. Shallow leagues are the most popular
and require a unique strategy. You want high upside players. You want to draft players in the 5th round
who can provide 1st round results. The free agent wire will be full of average players that can added to
your team.
Deep Leagues: The size of these leagues contains 15+ owners. I prefer to take safer players even if their
upside isn’t as high as other players. The reason is the free agent wire is going to be barren and a
replacement level player is going to be far lower.
Head-to-Head (H2H): I personally don’t like playing H2H because the best team is not guaranteed to be
the winner. The biggest argument in favor of H2H is because it keeps owners involved the entire season
while in Roto leagues owners who are losing could stop participating after the All-Star break. When in a
H2H league you’re more concerned about winning every week. For example, in most formats, an 8-2
score gives you eight wins instead of one. Therefore, one category players like Mark Reynolds, who
either strikes out or hits home runs are more valuable. Also, low batting average players are no longer
undesirable because every week is a fresh start and the negative impact of a Mark Reynolds is less
dramatic.
Rotisserie (Roto): This is style of game favors patience more than anything else because the scoring is
based on the totals at the end of the season. Having a balanced roster is the mission because the
objective is to rank as high as possible in every category. So a Mark Reynolds and his .220 AVG can
(negatively) significantly impact a team’s batting average.
Two-Catcher Leagues: Normally catcher is a wasteland for fantasy baseball, providing no real value to a
team except for a couple of elite players. Two catcher leagues make the position scarcer, thereby,
creating an extra premium to acquire quality players. I love playing with two catchers because it adds
more strategy to team construction during the draft. In one catcher drafts owners can wait until the very
end of the draft before grabbing a catcher because after the third catcher, everyone is basically the
Matt Commins |4
same. In two catchers league owners cannot wait to grab catchers because teams with John Buck and
Miguel Olivo are going to be at a significant disadvantage.
Three vs. Five Outfielders: Like with playing with two catchers, playing with five outfielders make the
position scarcer, thereby, creating a premium for the top-end talent. In three outfielder leagues you
want to draft high upside guys like Josh Hamilton or Allen Craig because there will be a lot of quality
players on the free agent wire. I prefer playing with five outfielders (go figure?) because more skill is
involved in order to succeed.
Middle Infielders (MI) and Corner Infielders (CI): This is another excellent way to add position scarcity
to an otherwise shallow league. A CI is either a third baseman or first baseman. A MI is either a
shortstop or a second baseman. There are various strategies for playing in leagues like this. One strategy
you could employ is to draft two shortstops (Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki) in the first two rounds of
the draft because the position is so scarce. Also, this strategy could provide great trade bait later in the
season. I personally don’t like this strategy because it forces you to draft a specific way the rest of the
draft. Suppose it’s the 10th round and Elvis Andrus is available, he’s no longer a viable option because
the owner took Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes earlier on. So instead of drafting Elvis, the owner will
have to draft someone else.
Traditional (5x5) Categories: Below are the traditional categories you’ll find traditional leagues.
Hitters
Home Runs
Runs
Stolen Bases
Batting Average
RBI
Pitchers
Strikeouts
Wins
Saves
WHIP
ERA
Other Categories: Like I mentioned in the Foreword, I played in the 16 team, Up & In league. What
made it so special was we incorporated different scoring metrics you do not find in most leagues (table
below). My strategy going into the this league, which was H2H scoring, was to load up on hitters early in
the draft, then draft closers (because they’re scare in a league that large) and fill out my pitching staff
with great relievers. This would allow me the dominate hitting each week and win four out of the six
pitching categories (saves, holds, ERA and WHIP).
Hitters
Home Runs
Total Bases
Stolen Bases
Batting Average
Slugging Percentage
On-Base Percentage
Pitchers
Strikeouts
Quality Starts
Saves
Holds
ERA
WHIP
Matt Commins |5
Statistical/Sabermetric Baselines
Every fantasy owner should know the statistical baselines for player performance. In my player profiles I
assume you’ll know a hitter with a 23% HR/FB rate was extremely lucky or a hitter with a .350 BABIP was
extremely lucky (in most cases).
Hitter Baselines
BABIP: This is the most misunderstood and misused baseball statistic in fantasy. It’s widely used as a
barometer for how lucky a player has been, but be careful because BABIP on its own does not tell the
full story. It’s important to remember every player has their own baseline. For example, Ichiro has a
career BABIP of .347, which is 40 points higher than the Major League average (.290-.310). Last year he
had a .300 BABIP, which appears normal, but in actuality was below average.
HR/FB: Shows how many fly balls turn into home runs
“Slash Line”: AVG/OBP/SLG
Isolated Power (ISO): A measure of a hitter's raw power. Or, to look at it another way, it measures how
good a player is at hitting for extra bases.
A little background about ground balls, fly balls and line drives; ground balls are a hitter’s worst friend.
Ground balls create 0.05 runs per out, fly balls create 0.13 runs per out and line drives create 1.26 runs
per out.
League Averages
HR/FB
LD% (Lind Drive)
20%
Excellent
20%
GB%
(Ground
Ball)
44%
Great
15%
FB% (Fly Ball)
36%
Above Average
12.5%
IFFB% (Infield Fly Ball)
10%
Average
9.5%
Below Average
Poor
Zima
7.5%
5%
1%
BABIP
ISO
Excellent
Great
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Poor
Zima
.250
.200
.180
.145
.120
.100
.080
Normal
.290-.310
Batting Average of Hit Types
LD
.670
GB
.236
FB
.288
Matt Commins |6
Rating
Excellent
Great
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Poor
Awful
K%
10.00%
12.50%
15.00%
18.50%
20.00%
25.00%
27.50%
BB%
15.00%
12.50%
10.00%
8.50%
7.00%
5.50%
4.00%
Pitcher Baselines
Left On Base Percentage (LOB%): Measures the percentage of base runners a pitcher stranded on base
over the course of a season.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): Converts a pitcher's three true outcomes into an earned run
average-like number. The formula is (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it
on the same scale as earned run average.
Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP): Calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a
pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed. This
estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the
year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.
BB/9: Shows how many batters a pitcher is walking per nine innings. Usually, you want to refrain from
drafting pitchers who walk a lot of hitters because it increases the likelihood those runners are going to
score.
K/9: Shows how many batters a pitcher is striking out per nine innings. Usually, you want to draft
pitchers who strike out a lot of pitchers because they help you in the strikeout category and most
importantly, increase the likelihood they’ll allow fewer runs, which will increase the opportunity of
winning games.
K%: Shows the percentage of batters a pitcher is striking out. I find this statistic to be a more accurate
than K/9. For example, suppose a pitcher strikes out two batters and allowed no hits or walks in three
innings. His K/9 would 6, but his K% would be 33%. The K% provides a more detailed story about the
pitcher’s dominance.
BB%: I feel the same about BB% as I do about K%. Please read K% for more information.
Fair Run Average (FRA): Scaled to run average and measures not only what a pitcher did, but also when
he did it. Adjustments are made for defensive quality. Pitchers receive credit for good sequencing, thus
rewarding pitchers who seem to work out of jams more often than usual.
Matt Commins |7
LOB%
HR/FB
Excellent
Great
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Poor
Zima
Excellent
Great
Above Average
Average
Below Average
Poor
Zima
5.0%
7.0%
8.5%
9.5%
10.5%
11.5%
13.0%
Starting Pitchers
Rating
BB/9
Excellent
1.54
Great
2.05
Above Average
2.48
Average
2.99
Below Average
3.64
Zimal
4.27
FIP
Excellent
Great
Above Average
Average
Zima
80.0%
78.0%
75.0%
72.0%
70.0%
65.0%
60.0%
2.17
3.36
4.00
4.56
5.68
BB%
4.2%
5.0%
6.5%
7.8%
9.3%
10.8%
FRA
Excellent
Great
Above Average
Average
Zima
2.17
3.36
4.00
4.56
5.68
Relief Pitchers
Rating
BB/9
Excellent
.54
Great
1.54
Above Average
2.61
Average
3.65
Below Average
4.91
Zima
6.95
Starting Pitchers
Rating
Whiff%
Excellent
27.1%
Great
24.9%
Above Average
22.4%
Average
19.8%
Below Average
17.0%
Zima
14.6%
BB%
2.0%
4.2%
6.8%
9.4%
12.4%
16.0%
Starting Pitchers
Rating
K/9
Excellent
9.63
Great
8.95
Above Average
7.82
Average
6.76
Below Average
5.79
Zima
4.90
K%
26.0%
23.5%
20.4%
17.3%
14.5%
12.4%
BABIP
Normal
.300
Relief Pitchers
Rating
K/9
Excellent
14.28
Great
10.80
Above Average
9.26
Average
7.67
Below Average
5.58
Zima
3.60
K%
37.5%
28.2%
24.1%
19.5%
13.8%
9.1%
Matt Commins |8
Player Evaluation
How I Evaluate Pitchers
In most cases in order for pitchers to be a successful is to strikeout (missing bats) a lot of hitters and not
walk many hitters. Those are two true outcomes pitchers 100% control. Everything else (defense, the
weather, fans, BABIP) are out of their control and are subject to luck. Pitchers with high strikeout and
low walk totals are usually the most dominant and can shut down opposing offenses. If a pitcher misses
bats and doesn’t walk hitters, it usually means less runners are on base, which tends to lead to less runs
scoring. This doesn’t mean that pitchers who don’t miss bats cannot be successful. Tim Hudson has had
a great career relying on getting ground balls.
From a fantasy perspective it’s easier to predict future success if pitchers miss a lot of bats and don’t
walk hitters. If a pitcher relies on his defense to generate outs, Trevor Cahill for example, it’s harder to
predict future performance because the luck of other statistics such as HR/FB rate, BABIP, LOB%, ERA,
and WHIP will be a bigger portion of the equation. Most importantly, watch the pitcher pitch. You don’t
have to be a scout to evaluate how good his pitches are or why he’s not performing well. In most cases
the announcers, especially if one of them is an ex-ball player, they can provide great insight into player
performance. I highly recommend getting MLB.tv because you watch any game you want on any device
you want.
Speaking of Tim Hudson and Trevor Cahill, pitchers who can generate a lot of ground balls are attractive
fantasy pitchers for two reasons. First, it tells me they could be less homer prone. Second, they will
generate a lot of double plays. Ground balls have the lowest batting of the three hit types (ground ball,
line drives and fly balls), which gives pitchers the best chance to avoid the big inning.
How I Evaluate Hitters
Other than the five traditional statistics (runs, batting average, RBI, batting average, stolen bases) I look
at ratios and percentages because they provide a better indicator how often a player is doing
something. The two most important percentages are strikeout and walks. Those two stats paint a
picture of a batters plate discipline and understanding of the strike zone. In general high strikeout
hitters tend to have lower batting averages than players who do not strikeout as much. BABIP and
HR/FB rates are especially important when gauging a how lucky a hitter was. Was a hitter’s high average
due to luck? Was a hitter’s power numbers inflated because more fly balls left the ballpark?
Similar to what I look for with pitchers I look at ground ball, fly ball, and line drive percentages with
hitters; the most important being line drives. If a player hits more line drives that tells me he’s barreling
balls (making hard and solid contact), which is more conducive to sustained performance. If a player has
played two years or less I read the scouting reports from Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law and Baseball
America to support the numbers he’s posted in the majors.
Matt Commins |9
How I Evaluate Positions
The first thing I do is figure out the statistical baseline for each position. Do home runs come from first
basemen or the second basemen? Where can I find speed? In order to find averages I look at the top
players at each position. The top players are defined by the number of teams I’m playing in. If it’s a 10
team league with only one second baseman, I’ll look at the averages of the top 15 second basemen. The
reason why I look at the top 15 is because odds are no one is going to own Chris Getz this year, so why
should incorporated into the baseline? The top 15 is defined by ESPNs Player Rater.
The table below shows a breakdown, by position, of who hit 20 or more home runs and who stole 20 or
more stolen bases. This is very simple but it proves the point I’m trying to make. By looking at this chart
its clear speed exists at shortstop, so odds are every owner is going to get steals from their shortstop.
Therefore, in order to create a competitive advantage, owners must find steals elsewhere.
Position
Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Shortstop
Outfield
DH
Power & Speed Benchmarks by Position
2011
2012
Hit 20+ HRs
Stole 20+ Bases
Hit 20+ HRs
Stole 20+ Bases
5
0
5
0
16
0
15
0
8
5
4
5
7
3
11
1
4
13
4
13
34
34
30
21
1
0
1
0
The table below shows the number of 20/20 players (home runs/stolen bases) the past 12 seasons.
20/20 players are extremely rare and therefore, should be targeted in your drafts. If you can draft just
three of these players, you’ll have a competitive advantage over everyone else.
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
20/20
9
15
9
6
9
5
7
14
9
14
7
12
10
M a t t C o m m i n s | 10
Draft Strategy
Overall Draft Strategy
Regardless of the style of your draft, the goal of every owner is to maximize the value of each draft pick.
A very apropos phrase for this is Value Based Drafting (VBD). Drafting someone in the first round or the
last round has a perceived value. If the player drafted in the last round provides first round value (Mike
Trout), the return on the draft day value is huge. The same is also true if a player performs less than
expected (Carl Crawford). It’s important to note, that the value of a player can change at moment.
External factors such as health, team, usage, and a myriad of other factors can affect a player’s value.
Evaluation of statistics is very important, but it’s also important to try to understand why and how a
player achieved those statistics. For example, what may have caused Matt Cain’s poor road numbers?
Maybe it’s because he pitches up in the zone with his fastball, a fastball that has steadily decreased in
velocity the past four years, thereby making him more homer prone. If the decrease in velocity
continues he could become more homer prone on the road, decreasing the statistical aggregate and
fantasy value. Based on that tidbit, fantasy owners can draw their own conclusions.
If you’re in a 10-team mixed league with 5x5 Roto scoring your goal is get to 80 points. If this sounds
familiar to the column Matthew Berry wrote about in his Draft Day Manifesto last year, then you’re
correct. The section about scoring 80 points was extremely helpful for me last year because it created
category thresholds for my draft prep. Also, I’m not afraid to say I’m influenced by him or anyone else.
The first image below shows the category thresholds needs to score a specific number of points (I have
the pdf of image if you’re looking for a high resolution version). For example, 281 home runs should get
you eight points and 1,220 strikeouts should provide five points. During your drafts keep these totals in
mind so you can see what categories your team is lacking and what categories you have a surplus. The
second table below shows the totals of 15-team 5X5 categorical totals at the end of the year. The source
of the table can be found here.
Mixed League 15-team, 5x5 Category Finish Averages
Finish
HR
RBI
SB
R
BA
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
1st
282
1,036
195
1,041
.280
104
94
3.34
1.17
1,352
2nd
268
994
184
1,015
.278
99
88
3.46
1.20
1,317
rd
264
978
176
999
.276
97
84
3.55
1.21
1,277
th
259
962
165
987
.274
95
78
3.61
1.22
1,245
th
256
941
161
975
.272
92
75
3.68
1.23
1,228
th
246
927
157
957
.270
90
72
3.73
1.24
1,205
th
240
912
153
950
.268
88
69
3.83
1.26
1,195
th
8
236
893
149
936
.266
86
65
3.91
1.27
1,177
9th
230
876
143
923
.264
84
59
3.96
1.28
1,158
10
th
227
866
132
915
.263
82
57
4.02
1.29
1,133
11
th
216
855
128
892
.262
80
53
4.07
1.30
1,117
12
th
211
841
124
874
.261
77
49
4.14
1.30
1,105
13
th
204
819
115
864
.258
76
40
4.21
1.32
1,073
14
th
196
796
104
835
.255
71
32
4.24
1.33
1,051
15
th
175
749
93
797
.248
66
19
4.40
1.36
977
3
4
5
6
7
Don’t Draft Players Based on Last Year’s Statistics
The most common error I see in drafts is owners drafting players based on last year’s performance. It
seems counter intuitive to disregard last year’s numbers because common sense says, “if Player Z hit 40
home runs last year, he should do it again.” In a static world without independent variables this is true,
but baseball, a game grounded, on the surface, in data and statistical predictability, still has luck
entranced in every play. Since luck plays a big role in player performance, it’s important to understand
how a player accumulated his statistics. That’s where knowing sabermetic baselines are extremely
helpful. Maybe Player Z’s 40 home run season was fluke because his HR/FB rate was 26% and his
historical average is only 17%. Maybe he changed ballparks? Maybe most home runs came in
September? Understanding how a player accumulated his stats will make you more informed and most
importantly, take out as much luck as possible from player evaluation.
Know Your Competitors
"Know thy enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated. When you are
ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both
of your enemy and of yourself, you are sure to be defeated in every battle." Be aware of your fellow
owners. If you play in league with your friends, who are all Dodgers fans, it’s more likely Dodger players
will be overvalued and Giants players undervalued.
Projections & Their Value
I use PECOTA for my projections because their system is the most accurate. That said, projections are
not the end all be all because there’s an inherent flaw in any type of projection system (PECOTA, Bill
James, Fan Graphs, Cairo, Oliver) because at the end of the day the algorithm is basing its forecast on
regression. Their algorithms will say “there’s no way Mike Trout will repeat (or do better than) his 2012
season because of X, Y, and Z”.
What makes PECOTA extremely helpful is when I’m trying to predict how many points I have in each
category as I progress during my draft. If I drafted Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton then I have 70 home
runs (totally made up totals) and therefore I only need 211 more home runs to reach eight points (in
the home run category). For a summary of every major projection system I encourage you to read this
post on FanGraphs.
Try Not Be Influenced by the Hosting Draft Sites Projections
Every website has their own unique rankings and projections. Why is this important? Two reasons: 1) it’s
difficult not to be influenced by them during your draft. 2) This may be a shock to some of you, but there
are always a good number of owners who did not prepare at all or only prepared for the first five
rounds. What usually happens for these owners is they heavily rely on the hosting websites projections
to make their draft decisions. Knowing the ADPs of every player will provide an opportunity to see which
players may fall or go early.
Do Not Use Last Year’s Numbers as a Baseline
Suppose a pitcher has three years in a row where he posted a 3.50 ERA with 190Ks, but last year his ERA
was 4.10 with only 165Ks (assume the same number of innings pitched), should the player have less
value next year? Not necessarily. He’s shown relatively consistent performances in the past. Was he
unlucky? Was he hurt? Did he lose velocity? Regardless of the reason, luck can play a big role in player
performance from year to year. One down or “bad” year doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the start of a
trend (good or bad).
Monitor the Rosters of Every Team
This may be overly simplistic, but this is often overlooked. There were times when I would be drafting
ninth (in a ten team league) and debating whether to take a shortstop or third baseman. If I saw the
roster of the owner picking tenth and saw he already owned a shortstop, but didn’t own a third
baseman, then it’s more likely he/she would take a third baseman with their next pick.
There’s a Run on a Category and/or a Position…..AH!!
I believe in taking the best player available, but there will be times where that’s no longer a feasible
strategy. Suppose there’s a run on speed players and the best speed players left are in the lowest tier.
Instead of drafting a speed player, the market (players available) is full of undervalued statistical assets;
or in other words, there’s a market inefficiency. Maybe the run on speed players left a lot of power
outfielders. Go grab a couple of those power outfielders instead. Doing this will increase the likelihood
of performing better in the power category, which hopefully offsets the lower total in stolen bases. Also,
if a run happens, the lowest tier players, like in the speed example, will be available with the last pick or
five rounds prior.
Position Scarcity
Position scarcity is a position with a big drop-off after the first tier of elite hitters. For example, catcher
has historically been a position with a massive drop off after the first two elite players are off the board.
Position scarcity certainly exists, but the amount of weight fantasy owners apply to each player and
position can vary. There’s no right or wrong way to approach position scarcity. Pundits against drafting
based on scarcity believe it’s better maximize team output instead of position output. Pundits for
drafting elite players at scarce positions creates a competitive advantage because the pool of players
left are inferior to the players on your team. I believe in VBD. If I miss out on the top two catchers I’m
confident I can still find undervalued catchers later on in the draft.
Auction Drafts
Suppose you’re drafting tenth overall. There’s no way you’re going to own Ryan Braun. However, in an
auction league any player can be on a team’s roster. In general you want to use 70% of your budget on
hitting and 30% on pitching. When I’m in an auction I wait until at least 13-18 players go off the board
before I make a bid. I do this because I want to understand the market values of specific players and
their tiers. For example, if Mike Trout goes for $40, then Ryan Braun should be priced close to $40.
Don’t Pay for Saves
I never pay for closers. If I draft the two worst closers or even one closer, I’ll be happy. Some might
argue that having an elite closer such as Craig Kimbrell will lower the ERA for their team compared to
Brandon League. That’s true, but remember both pitchers will only throw 60-70 innings, which only
represents roughly 5% of the total innings in the ERA calculation (in Roto leagues) so the effect closers
have on ERA is overstated. Saves will become available in the league. Look at Fernando Rodney, he was
a top two closer and he went undrafted in almost every league.
2 Players for 1 Position
Another way is to draft a pair of players to act as one player who can provide great value in the
aggregate. This strategy involves taking players with dramatic home-road splits who play their home
games in extremely favorable hitter’s parks. This strategy works best in daily leagues or leagues where
you can set your lineup twice a week. I go into this in more depth at blog; check it out here.
The Impact of Taking a Starting Pitcher in the First Round
I did an experiment based on the 2012 the season where a fantasy owner is debated whether to take
Robinson Cano or Justin Verlander in the first round. I choose both those players because they were
healthy and played the entire year. In order to show the impact of this decision the rest of the team will
remain the same except for the last pick in the draft. If the owner took Verlander instead of Cano, the
owner used the last pick of the draft to fill the vacant spot in the lineup left by Cano. In order to
measure the difference in scoring I aggregated the season totals and compared them to the totals on
the “Avg Roto Points Per Stat by Finish” from ESPN, which provides the average totals necessary to
achieve a certain total by category. I agree this methodology is very flawed, but I wanted to see impact
of this one decision on a team’s chances to win.
Before I move on to the analysis I wanted to show how much of an impact a pitcher and a hitter have on
a fantasy team. On average a pitching staff will throw roughly 1,458 innings at the end of the year. If a
pitcher throws 200 innings, those innings will comprise 13.7% of the total output. Someone like
Verlander, who pitched 238 innings, will comprise 16.3% of the total innings, thereby making him more
valuable. On average a team’s lineup will have 8,770 plate appearances; a hitter with 630 plate
appearances will only comprise of 7.2% of the total plate appearances.
Below is the lineup with and without Cano. I choose Marco Scutaro because he was the only middle
infielder taken in the last round of a 10-team league.
W/Cano
Ryan Doumit
Paul Konerko
Dan Uggla
Elvis Andrus
Kyle Seager
Carlos Lee
Robinson Cano
Jason Heyward
Jay Bruce
B.J. Upton
Josh Hamilton
Justin Upton
Norichika Aoki
W/out Cano
Ryan Doumit
Paul Konerko
Dan Uggla
Elvis Andrus
Kyle Seager
Carlos Lee
Marco Scutaro
Jason Heyward
Jay Bruce
B.J. Upton
Josh Hamilton
Justin Upton
Norichika Aoki
Position
C
1B
2B
SS
3B
CI
MI
OF
OF
OF
OF
OF
U
Below are the cumulative statistical 5x5 categories:
W/ Cano
W/out Cano
HR
287
261
R
1,065
1,047
RBI
1,051
1,031
SB
160
166
AVG
.272
.272
Below shows the fantasy points each category would provide. The total difference in scoring is five
points.
Fantasy Points
W/ Cano
W/out Cano
HR
8
5
R
6
5
RBI
7
6
SB
6
6
AVG
5
5
Total
32
27
Below is the rotation with and without Verlander. I choose Trevor Cahill at random among the starting
pitchers that were taken in the last round of a 10-team league.
W/ Verlander
Jason Motte
Justin Verlander
Hiroki Kuroda
Clay Buchholz
Jake Peavy
Brandon Morrow
Chris Perez
Jim Johnson
Adam Wainwright
W/out Verlander
Jason Motte
Trevor Cahill
Hiroki Kuroda
Clay Buchholz
Jake Peavy
Brandon Morrow
Chris Perez
Jim Johnson
Adam Wainwright
Below are the cumulative statistical 5x5 categories:
W/ Verlander
W/out Verlander
W
85
81
SO
1,207
1,124
ERA
3.38
3.57
WHIP
1.14
1.18
Time for the money shot; how much of an improvement was Verlander over a replacement level player.
Total
W
SO
ERA
WHIP
30
8
9
5
9
W/ Verlander
25
7
7
4
7
W/out Verlander
The difference for both Cano and Verlander provided exactly the same value over a replacement level
player. This doesn’t mean a fantasy owner should or should not take a pitcher early in drafts, but what I
did learn is if you do take a pitcher early you won’t be at a severe disadvantage as you navigate through
the rest of the draft. It does, however, mean the fantasy owner will have to compose a lineup with
hitters who will exceed their draft day value.
Do Not Overlook Runs Scored
Pitching has become more dominant than ever. The manifestation of this dominance can be shown in
the number of runs scored per game. During the last two years the average runs per game has not been
this low since 1992. Below is a graph of the average runs per game since 1980. The green line represents
the average (4.55 runs).
5.3
Runs Per/Game
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.7
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
3.5
During our draft prep, we (fantasy owners) can often times have the blinders when on when it comes to
the evaluation of and ranking of hitters. More specifically, we only focus on players who hit home runs,
generate RBIs, and steal a lot of bases. I was not immune to this way of thinking as well. Quick guess,
how many players scored 85+ runs last year? 48, that’s it. Last year it was 37! Let’s not jump the gun
here. Maybe scoring runs isn’t as scarce as home runs. The table below shows the number of players
who scored 85+ runs and 25+ home runs.
Year
1980
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
85+ Runs
33
49
29
39
36
44
60
32
24
34
40
35
52
42
80
71
84
94
90
65
67
68
75
60
78
74
69
58
49
37
48
25+ Home Runs
17
29
22
25
31
31
53
22
18
22
31
20
31
37
61
49
52
64
67
65
54
57
58
45
54
46
50
55
44
42
44
I starting playing fantasy baseball in the late 90s when scoring a lot of runs was common. However, with
runs becoming more of a premium, players who score a lot of runs are just as scarce as home run
boppers. Currently players who are projected to score a lot of runs and steal a lot of bases: Ben Revere,
Denard Span, and Jon Jay have only have ADPs (at Mock Draft Central) of 190, 237 and 265 respectively.
However, power only players are going higher in drafts. For example, Kendrys Morales, Ryan Ludwick
and Dayan Viciedo have ADPs of 148, 158 and 183 respectively. I recommend “reaching” for a Revere,
Span or Jay before drafting the Ludwick’s and Viciedo’s because finding power will be easier to find later
in drafts. For example, last year 79 players hit 20+ home runs compared to only 61 players scoring 80+
runs.
How I Approach the Draft
I use all the strategies I mentioned above, but like all meat eaters who became vegans, I want to see
how the sausage is made so I can learn the whole truth. I prefer VBD where I take the player with the
most value at that draft position. The simplest example is should a fantasy owner take Yoensis Cespedes
first overall in a 10 team league? No, because I can surely get him in later in the draft. In other words,
drafting Cespedes at that draft position would provide negative value.
How do I define value? First I rank every player by position and then bucket them into tiers. Once
they’re in tiers I highlight players I like a lot and dislike a lot. Then I look at the Average Draft Positions
(ADPs) of each player on the hosting website as well as other websites to try to get a feel for how other
fantasy owners are valuing players.
From there I create a composite ADP and pick out players I like that are expected to be in the area of
each draft pick. Then I create a team and use PECOTA projections to see how that team stacks up. I
rerun this over and over again until I find a solid team. This task gives me an idea of opportunities I’m
missing. For example, why draft a shortstop in the 7th round when I can find a similar shortstop in the
12th round.
I do not recommend drafting soley based on ADP. For example, if Allen Craig has an ADP of 35 doesn’t
mean you should shy away from drafting him 25th overall. If you believe Craig has a VBD worthy of the
25th pick then swoop him up. Now the most ideal situation would be to pass on Craig at 25 and hope he
falls and is available at 35. During every draft fantasy owners have to find the right balance of getting
the players they like at a cost that provides them a positive VBD value.
How I Draft
During the draft I add the players’ (I just drafted) projected stats to an Excel spreadsheet to see how my
team’s looking. Do I have enough home runs? Do I need a player with a high batting average? Can I take
a low batting average player like Adam Dunn? I usually don’t start drafting based on need until after the
seventh round because I want the best players available regardless of their deficiencies.
I’m a big believer you cannot win your league with your first three picks, but you can lose your league
with those picks. Therefore, with my first three picks I avoid taking players that provide a wide range of
outcomes. For example, Dan Uggla could continue to regress or revert back to his pre-2012 year. Any of
those outcomes are entirely plausible. However, Prince Fielder is pretty safe to put up 30 home runs
with 100 RBI. With my first three picks I want five-tool players; players who will give me stats in every
category. There are exceptions for players who can provide the most of a specific category. For example,
if I’m drafting in the middle of the second round I may reach for Giancarlo Stanton because he could hit
50+ home runs this year.
After the first three picks I’ll take a chance on players with tremendous upside, Allen Craig or Jacoby
Ellsbury for example. If I built my team correctly I can absorb the potentially low VBD and not have it
affect my chances to win the league. In order to win any league you’re going to need players who
outperform their draft day value. Teams consisting of only safe, low upside players like Howard Kendrick
or Paul Konerko are bound to lose.
Last Tidbit
Whatever strategy you choose, go with it 100%. Of course you always have to have to adjust at certain
points, but overall, if you’ve mapped out a course, then go forth and stay true to your conviction! I’ve
found the draft represents 50% of what’s needed in order to win.
Scouting Primer
For each tool (hitter) or individual offering (pitcher), a scout assigns a grade on a numerical scale from
20 to 80 where an increase in ten represents one standard deviation from the mean. A 50 grade is that
mean, representing major-league average. A 80 grade, the highest score possible, represents elite skill
that a few players achieve. Sometimes modify scores are used to describe the strength/weakness of a
particular grade. For example, a 55 grade represents solid-average and a 45 grade represents fringeaverage. Lastly, the tables I used in this section are from Baseball Prospectus Extra Innings.
20 = Poor; Zima
30 = Well below-average; Budweiser
40 = Below-average; Heineken
50 = Average; major-league regular; Guinness
60 = Above-average (plus); first-division; Racer 5
70 = Well above-average (plus-plus); all-star; Pliny the Elder
80 = Elite; Victoria
I interchangeably use scouting grades in my evaluations so please refer to these tables if you have any
questions.
Fastball Velocity
97+ mph
94-96 mph
92-94 mph
89-91 mph
87-89 mph
85-87 mph
82-84 mph
Grade
80; Elite
70; Well above average; plus-plus
60; Above average; plus
50; Average
40; Below average
30; Well below average
20; Poor; Zima
The hit tool is the measure of how often a ball is properly squared up, driven with authority, and
deposited into the field of play.
Hit Tool
.320+
.300-.320
.285-.300
.270-.285
.250-.270
.225-.250
<.225
Batting AVG at the MLB Level
80; Elite
50; Average
40; Below average
20; Poor; Zima
Home Run Power
39+
32-38
25-32
17-25
11-17
5-11
<5
Home Runs at the MLB Level
80; Elite
50; Average
40; Below average
20; Poor; Zima
The table below show how long it takes for the batter to get from home plate first base after he hits the
ball. The best (fastest) times you can get is what’s called a jail break, where the runner sprints to first
base. For example, to avoid a double play the hitter will run the fastest to first base.
Speed (Left/Right)
3.9 (L)/ 4.0 (R)
4.0 (L)/ 4.1 (R)
4.1 (L)/ 4.2 (R)
4.2 (L)/ 4.3 (R)
4.3 (L)/ 4.4 (R)
4.4 (L)/ 4.5 (R)
4.5 (L)/ 4.6 (R)
Grade
80; Elite
50; Average
40; Below average
20; Poor; Zima
2013 Bold Predictions
Life is too short to tote mediocrity. Be bold. Be daring.
AL MVP: Yoenis Cespedes
NL MVP: Allen Craig
AL CY YOUNG: Yu Darvish
NY CY YOUNG: Stephen Strasburg
AL ROY: Bruce Rondon
NL ROY: Shelby Miller
Cheap Source of Power: Matt Joyce, J.J. Hardy, Cody Ross, Logan Morrison
Cheap Source of Speed: Emilio Bonifacio, Everth Cabrera, Darin Mastroianni
Cheap Source of Strikeouts: James McDonald, Andrew Cashner, Matt Harvey
Hitters Who Won’t Live Up to the Hype: Jose Bautista, Ian Kinsler, B.J. Upton, Ryan Howard
Hitters Who Will Exceed Expectations: Allen Craig, Salvador Perez, Bryce Harper, Ike Davis
Pitchers Who Won’t Live Up to the Hype: Matt Cain, Brett Anderson, Madison Bumgarner, Wade Miley
Pitchers Who Will Exceed Expectations: James McDonald, Mike Minor, Yu Darvish, Matt Moore
NL East Winner: Nationals
NL Central Winner: Reds
NL West Winner: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card Winner: Braves, Dodgers
AL East Winner: Blue Jays
AL Central Winner: Royals
AL West Winner: Athletics
AL Wild Card Winner: Tampa Rays, Rangers
ALCS Champion: Tampa Rays
NLCS Champion: Dodgers
World Series Winner: Tampa Rays
Hitting Abbreviations
2B - Doubles
3B - Triples
AB - At Bats
AB/GIDP - At-Bats per Grounded Into Double Play
AB/HR - At-Bats per Home Run
AB/RBI - At-Bats per Runs Batted In
AO - Fly Outs
AVG - Batting Average
BB - Bases on Balls (Walks)
CS - Caught Stealing
FB - Fly Ball
G - Games Played
GB - Ground Ball
GIDP - Ground into Double Plays
GO - Ground Outs
GO/AO - Ground Outs/Fly Outs
GSH - Grand Slam Home Runs
H - Hits
HBP - Hit by Pitch
HR - Home Runs
IBB - Intentional Walks
LD - Line Drive
LIPS - Late Inning Pressure Situations
LOB - Left On Base
NP - Number of Pitches
OBP - On-base Percentage
OPS - On-base Plus Slugging Percentage
PA/SO - Plate Appearances per Strikeout
R - Runs Scored
RBI - Runs Batted In
SAC - Sacrifice Bunts
SB% - Stolen Base Percentage
SB - Stolen Bases
SF - Sacrifice Flies
SLG - Slugging Percentage
SO - Strikeouts
TB - Total Bases
TP - Triple Play
TPA - Total Plate Appearances
XBH - Extra Base Hits
Pitching Abbreviations
AO - Fly Outs
APP - Appearances
AVG - Opponents Batting Average
BB - Bases on Balls (Walks)
BB/9 - Walks per Nine Innings
BF - Batters Faced
BK - Balks
BS - Blown Save
CG - Complete Games
CGL - Complete Game Losses
CS - Caught Stealing
ER - Earned Runs
ERA - Earned Run Average
FB - Fly Ball
G - Games Played
GF - Games Finished
GB - Ground Ball
GIDP - Grounded Into Double Plays
GO - Ground Outs
GO/AO - Ground Outs/ Fly Outs Ratio
GS - Games Started
GSH - Grand Slams
H - Hits
H/9 - Hits per Nine Innings
HB - Hit Batsmen
HLD - Hold
HR - Home Runs
I/GS - Innings Per Games Started
IBB - Intentional Walks
IP - Innings Pitched
IRA - Inherited Runs Allowed
K/9 - Strikeouts per Nine Innings
K/BB - Strikeout/Walk Ratio
L - Losses
LD - Line Drive
LIPS - Late Inning Pressure Situations
LOB - Left on Base
MB/9 - Baserunners per 9 Innings
NP - Number of Pitches Thrown
OBA - On-base Against
PA - Plate Appearances
P/GS - Pitches per Start
P/IP - Pitches per Innings Pitched
PK - Pick-offs
R - Runs
RW - Relief Wins
SB - Stolen Bases
SHO - Shutouts
SLG - Slugging Percentage Allowed
SO - Strikeouts
SV - Saves
SVO - Save Opportunities
TB - Total Bases
TP - Triple Plays
UR - Unearned Runs
W - Wins
WHIP - Walks + Hits/Innings Pitched
WP - Wild Pitches
WPCT - Winning Percentage
XBA - Extra Base Hits Allowed
Position Previews
What you’ll find in the next sections are the position break downs by tier along with my rankings and
overall thoughts on each position.
I also provide a breakdown of how the tiers look statistically. It’s important to note all the data in this
section are based on the rankings of the 2012 ESPN Player rater.
The “Where I Stand…” section is to provide a quick shot of some of the players I like and dislike.
Catcher
Tier 1: Buster Posey, Yadier Molina
Tier 2: Joe Mauer, Wilin Rosario, Matt Wieters, Carlos Santana, Miguel Montero
Tier 3: Salvador Perez, Victor Martinez, Jonathan Lucroy
Tier 4: Alex Avila, Jesus Montero, Brian McCan, A.J. Perzynski, Ryan Doumit, John Jaso, Welington
Castillo
Tier 5: Travis d’Arnaud, Carlos Ruiz, J.P. Arencibia, Mike Napoli, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Yasmani Grandal,
Rob Brantly, Russell Martin, Chris Iannetta, Jason Castro
Tier 6: Tyler Flowers, Miguel Olivo, Devin Mesoraco, A.J. Ellis, Ryan Hanigan, Derek Norris, Geovany
Soto, Kurt Suzuki
Overall thoughts: Fantasy owners in one catcher 10-12 mixed league can easily wait until the end of the
draft and find fantasy goodness. If you’re in a two catcher 10-12 mixed league waiting until the end of
the draft is another viable strategy, but I recommend trying to get two in the top 16 outlined below.
Even though the position is deep, most of the players provide statistical silos, providing above average
production in one or two categories. Some players provide a lot of pop but will struggle to provide
batting average while some players will provide a lot of runs and a high batting average with no power.
Rankings
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
Buster Posey
Yadier Molina
Wilin Rosario
Joe Mauer
Matt Wieters
Miguel Montero
Carlos Santana
Salvador Perez
Jonathan Lucroy
Victor Martinez
Alex Avila
Brian McCann
Jesus Montero
A.J. Pierzynski
John Jaso
Welington Castillo
Ryan Doumit
Carlos Ruiz
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
What The Top 10 Catchers Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
67
20
79
.294
4
Mike Napoli
Jason Castro
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Rob Brantly
Yasmani Grandal
J.P. Arencibia
Russell Martin
Chris Iannetta
Travis d'Arnaud
Miguel Olivo
Tyler Flowers
A.J. Ellis
Ryan Hanigan
Kurt Suzuki
Devin Mesoraco
Derek Norris
Geovany Soto
What The 11-22 Catchers Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
45
16
54
.251
2
Where I Stand…
Biggest Risk: Buster Posey
Safest Bet: Matt Wieters
Mid-Round Sleeper: Salvador Perez
Late Round Sleeper: Yasmani Grandal
Don’t Believe the Hype: Victor Martinez
Better in H2H Leagues: Wilin Rosario
Better in Roto Leagues: Miguel Montero
My Favorites: Salvador Perez, John Jaso
First Base
Tier 1: Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Edwin Encarcion, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez
Tier 2: Allen Craig, Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Ike Davis
Tier 3: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Konerko, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Mark Tumbo, Adam Laroche
Nick Swisher
Tier 4: Lance Berkman, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones, Kendrys Morales, Chris Carter, Chris Davis, Ryan
Howard, Todd Frazier, Mark Teixira,
Tier 5: Brett Wallace, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Brandon Belt, Adam Dunn, David Ortiz, Adam
Lind, Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss, Corey Hart
Tier 6: Mark Reynolds, Carlos Pena, Michael Young, Tyler Colvin, Jordan Pacheco, Justin Smoak, Matt
Carpenter
Overall thoughts: For the first time in a long time the discrepancy between the top three and the tenth
player isn’t that vast. With home runs becoming more a premium, first base is a position fantasy owners
must find power. If fantasy owners take a Votto or a Gonzalez they’re going to have augment their
teams later on during the draft to make up for their below average output.
Rankings
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Joey Votto
Prince Fielder
Albert Pujols
Edwin Encarnacion
Adrian Gonzalez
Allen Craig
Billy Butler
Eric Hosmer
Ike Davis
Paul Goldschmidt
Freddie Freeman
Adam LaRoche
Nick Swisher
Mark Trumbo
Anthony Rizzo
Paul Konerko
Garrett Jones
Chris Davis
David Ortiz
Lance Berkman
What The Top 15 First Baseman Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
79
29
98
.290
4
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
Adam Dunn
Adam Lind
Mark Teixeira
Logan Morrison
Chris Carter
Brett Wallace
Justin Morneau
Todd Frazier
Kendrys Morales
Yonder Alonso
Brandon Belt
Ryan Howard
Mark Reynolds
Mitch Moreland
Brandon Moss
Tyler Colvin
Michael Young
Carlos Pena
Jordan Pacheco
Corey Hart
What The 16-31 First Baseman Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
64
19
70
.268
4
Where I Stand…
Biggest Risk: Adrian Gonzalez
Safest Bet: Prince Fielder
Mid-Round Sleeper: Eric Hosmer
Late Round Sleeper: Chris Carter
Don’t Believe the Hype: Paul Goldschmidt
Better in H2H Leagues: Adam Dunn
Better in Roto Leagues: Albert Pujols
My Favorites: Allen Craig, Eric Hosmer
Second Base
Tier 1: Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedoria
Tier 2: Jason Kipnis, Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, Jose Altuve, Ian Kinsler
Tier 3: Rickie Weeks, Neil Walker, Josh Rutledge, Howard Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Emilio Bonifacio,
Danny Espinosa
Tier 4: Dustin Ackley, Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson, Chase Utley, Omar Infante, Jeff Keppinger, Marco
Scutaro, Matt Carpenter
Tier 5: Logan Forsythe, Gordon Beckman, Ruben Tejada, Jedd Gyorko, Brian Roberts, Chris Nelson,
Darwin Barney, Mark Ellis,
Tier 6: Maicer Izturis, Scott Sizemore, Mike Aviles, Jemile Weeks, Stephen Lombardozzi, Jurickson Profar,
Johnny Giavotella, Ryan Roberts
Overall thoughts: After Cano, the next six players have a wide range of outcomes that will make fantasy
owners think again before using a high draft pick on them. However, despite the risk at the top of the
list, the position is very deep with players who could end the year as the fifth best second baseman. My
strategy heading into drafts is I want my opponents to use high picks on the Pedoria’s and Kinsler’s and
I’ll wait to snag a Walker, Altuve or Kendrick.
Rankings
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Robinson Cano
Dustin Pedroia
Aaron Hill
Ian Kinsler
Jason Kipnis
Ben Zobrist
Brandon Phillips
Jose Altuve
Rickie Weeks
Neil Walker
Howard Kendrick
Josh Rutledge
Daniel Murphy
Danny Espinosa
Emilio Bonifacio
Chase Utley
Kelly Johnson
Jeff Keppinger
Marco Scutaro
Matt Carpenter
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
Dustin Ackley
Dan Uggla
Omar Infante
Jedd Gyorko
Logan Forsythe
Gordon Beckman
Brian Roberts
Ruben Tejada
Chris Nelson
Darwin Barney
Mark Ellis
Scott Sizemore
Maicer Izturis
Mike Aviles
Johnny Giavotella
Ryan Roberts
Stephen Lombardozzi
Jurickson Profar
Jemile Week
What The Top 12 Second Baseman Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
87
17
69
.283
18
What The 13-24 Second Baseman Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
64
12
59
.261
9
Where I Stand…
Biggest Risk: Ian Kinsler
Safest Bet: Brandon Phillips
Mid-Round Sleeper: Jose Altuve
Late Round Sleeper: Daniel Murphy
Don’t Believe the Hype: Ian Kinsler
Better in H2H Leagues: Rickie Weeks
Better in Roto Leagues: Ben Zobrist
My Favorites: Jose Altuve, Josh Rutledge
Shortstop
Tier 1: Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Starlin Castro
Tier 2: Ben Zobrist, Asdubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins
Tier 3: Everth Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez, Josh Rutledge, Alcidies Escobar, Danny Espinosa
Tier 4: Jhonny Peralta, Derek Jeter, Yunel Escobar, J.J. Hardy, Jean Segura, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Drew,
Erick Aybar, Marco Scutaro, Andrelton Simmons,
Tier 5: Zack Cozart, Ruben Tejada, Mike Aviles, Maicer Izturis, Dee Gordon, Eduardo Nunez, Hiroyuki
Nakajima, Alex Gonzalez
Overall thoughts: Other than a couple of players there are huge question marks surrounding every
player. Can Tulowitzki, Reyes and Lowrie stay healthy all year? Can Hardy, Ramirez and Cabrera bounce
back? Can Rollins, Desmond and Zobrist maintain their 2012 performances? In drafts I’m targeting “my
guys” and if I don’t get them, I’m waiting until the end of the draft before I grab one.
Rankings
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
Troy Tulowitzki
Jose Reyes
Starlin Castro
Hanley Ramirez
Ben Zobrist
Asdrubal Cabrera
Ian Desmond
Jimmy Rollins
Elvis Andrus
Alexei Ramirez
Josh Rutledge
Everth Cabrera
Alcides Escobar
Danny Espinosa
Derek Jeter
Jean Segura
What The Top 12 Shortstop Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
83
14
67
.286
22
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
J.J. Hardy
Jhonny Peralta
Marco Scutaro
Erick Aybar
Jed Lowrie
Andrelton Simmons
Yunel Escobar
Stephen Drew
Alex Gonzalez
Hiroyuki Nakajima
Zack Cozart
Ruben Tejada
Eduardo Nunez
Mike Aviles
Maicer Izturis
Dee Gordon
What The 13-24 Shortstop Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
63
11
49
.253
14
Where I Stand…
Biggest Risk: Troy Tulowitzki
Safest Bet: Starlin Castro
Mid-Round Sleeper: Elvis Andrus
Late Round Sleeper: Everth Cabrera
Don’t Believe the Hype: Jimmy Rollins
Better in H2H Leagues: J.J. Hardy
Better in Roto Leagues: Martin Prado
My Favorites: Everth Cabrera, Jean Segura
Third Base
Tier 1: Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria, David Wright
Tier 2: Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Zimmerman, Chase Headley, Aramis Ramirez, Martin
Prado
Tier 3: Kyle Seager, Mike Moustakas, Brett Lawrie, David Freese, Todd Frazier, Manny Machado, Will
Middlebrooks
Tier 4: Lonnie Chisenhall, Mark Reynolds, Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis, Trevor Plouffe, Matt
Dominguez, Jeff Keppinger, Pedro Alvarez
Tier 5: Jordan Pacheco, Scott Sizemore, Josh Donaldson, Chris Johnson, Ian Stewart, Chris Nelson,
Maicer Izturis, Mike Aviles Alex Rodriguez
Overall thoughts: This is the deepest position of any position entering 2013. I would literally be happy
with any of the top 16 players on my time (assuming the right price). For fantasy owners playing with CI
positions, I’m going to want to try to fill this position with a third baseman. At the end of drafts there are
higher upside lottery tickets you’ll be able to grab.
Rankings
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
Miguel Cabrera
Adrian Beltre
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Hanley Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval
Ryan Zimmerman
Martin Prado
Chase Headley
Aramis Ramirez
Kyle Seager
Brett Lawrie
Will Middlebrooks
Mike Moustakas
Todd Frazier
David Freese
Manny Machado
Michael Young
What The Top 10 Third Baseman Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
92
27
100
.297
11
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
Lonnie Chisenhall
Pedro Alvarez
Jeff Keppinger
Matt Dominguez
Kevin Youkilis
Trevor Plouffe
Mark Reynolds
Scott Sizemore
Josh Donaldson
Placido Polanco
Chris Nelson
Matt Carpenter
Ryan Roberts
Ian Stewart
Maicer Izturis
Alex Rodriguez
Chris Johnson
Jordan Pacheco
What The 11-20 Third Baseman Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
64
19
70
.274
7
Where I Stand…
Biggest Risk: Evan Longoria
Safest Bet: Adrian Beltre
Mid-Round Sleeper: Kyle Seager
Late Round Sleeper: Manny Machado
Don’t Believe the Hype: Chase Headley
Better in H2H Leagues: Hanley Ramirez
Better in Roto Leagues: Aramis Ramirez
My Favorites: Kyle Seager, Pablo Sandoval
Outfield
Tier 1: Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Kemp, Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez,
Tier 2: Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, Josh Hamilton, Allen Craig, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay
Bruce, Matt Holliday, Bryce Harper, B.J. Upton, Jose Bautista
Tier 3: Alex Gordon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Willingham, Mark Trumbo, Josh Reddick, Shin-Soo Choo,
Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, Brett Gardner, Austin Jackson, Nick Swisher, Alfonso Soriano, Norichika
Aoki, Jason Werth, Carlos Gomez
Tier 4: Ben Zobrist, Alex Rios, Torii Hunter, Michael Saunders, Carlos Beltran, Curtis Granderson, Melky
Cabrera, Michael Cuddyer, Ichiro Suzuki
Tier 5: Garrett Jones, Desmond Jennings, Nelson Cruz, Dexter Fowler, Lorenzo Cain, Cameron Maybin,
Coco Crisp, Peter Bourjos, Adam Eaton, Michael Morse, Emilio Bonifacio, Alejandro DeAza, Angel Pagan,
Jon Jay, Ben Revere, Hunter Pence, Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick, Denard Span, Carlos Quentin, David
Murphy, Corey Hart
Tier 6: Brandon Belt, Dayan Viciedo, Andre Ethier ,Starling Marte, Nick Markakis, Colby Rasmus, Chris
Davis, Matt Joyce, Logan Morrison, Carl Crawford, Lucas Duda, Andy Dirks, Aaron Hicks
Tier 7: Drew Stubbs, Travis Snider, Chris Parmelee, Justin Maxwell, Leonys Martin, Juan Pierre, Cody
Ross, Chris Young, Will Myers, Darin Mastoianni, Brandon Moss, Shane Victorino, Michael Brantley
Tier 8:, Justin Ruggiano, Domonic Brown, Franklin Gutierrez, Johnny Gomes, Andy Dirks, Tyler Colvin,
David DeJesus, Scott Hairston, Raul Ibanez, Will Venable, Delmon Young, Gerado Parra, Rajai Davis,
Nolan Reimold
Overall thoughts: The viability of the position depends on your league. Leagues requiring only three
outfielders will find plenty of players that can find rosters. Leagues requiring five outfielders will
encounter difficulty trying field every slot with a player fantasy owners are confident with. After the first
20 players batting average drops off a lot so fantasy owners are going to have to find batting average
somewhere else.
Rankings
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
Mike Trout
Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp
Adam Jones
Carlos Gonzalez
Andrew McCutchen
Bryce Harper
Jason Heyward
Justin Upton
Allen Craig
Yoenis Cespedes
B.J. Upton
Giancarlo Stanton
Matt Holliday
Jay Bruce
Josh Hamilton
Jose Bautista
Alex Gordon
Shin-Soo Choo
Austin Jackson
Jayson Werth
Josh Reddick
Norichika Aoki
Jacoby Ellsbury
Josh Willingham
Mark Trumbo
Carlos Gomez
Nick Swisher
Michael Bourn
Brett Gardner
Martin Prado
Alfonso Soriano
Alex Rios
Ben Zobrist
Carlos Beltran
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
Michael Saunders
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Melky Cabrera
Ichiro Suzuki
Curtis Granderson
Dexter Fowler
Lorenzo Cain
Alejandro DeAza
Angel Pagan
Ben Revere
Peter Bourjos
Cameron Maybin
Jon Jay
Coco Crisp
Hunter Pence
Nelson Cruz
Desmond Jennings
Jason Kubel
Ryan Ludwick
Garrett Jones
Denard Span
Carlos Quentin
Adam Eaton
David Murphy
Emilio Bonifacio
Corey Hart
Michael Morse
Dayan Viciedo
Carl Crawford
Andy Dirks
Lucas Duda
Matt Joyce
Chris Davis
Logan Morrison
What The Top 25 Outfielder Looked Like
R
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
92
25
83
.287
20
R
77
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
104.
Andre Ethier
Nick Markakis
Starling Marte
Colby Rasmus
Brandon Belt
Travis Snider
Drew Stubbs
Juan Pierre
Chris Young
Brandon Moss
Wil Myers
Cody Ross
Shane Victorino
Darin Mastroianni
Michael Brantley
Justin Maxwell
Chris Parmelee
Leonys Martin
Aaron Hicks
Domonic Brown
Franklin Gutierrez
Matt Carpenter
Jonny Gomes
Scott Hairston
Justin Ruggiano
Raul Ibanez
Tyler Colvin
David DeJesus
Will Venable
Delmon Young
Gerardo Parra
Rajai Davis
Nolan Reimol
What The 26-50 Outfielder Looked Like
HR
RBI
AVG
SB
19
70
.274
16
Where I Stand…
Biggest Risk: Matt Kemp
Safest Bet: Ryan Braun
Mid-Round Sleeper: Norichika Aoki
Late Round Sleeper: Carlos Quentin
Don’t Believe the Hype: Jose Bautista
Better in H2H Leagues: B.J. Upton
Better in Roto Leagues: Jay Bruce
My Favorites: Yoensis Cespedes, Bryce Harper
Starting Pitcher
Tier 1: Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, David Price, Felix Hernandez,
Cole Hamels
Tier 2: Gio Gonzalez, R.A. Dickey, Adam Wainwright, CC Sabathia, Jordan Zimmerman, Yu Darvish, Jered
Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Moore, Johnny Cueto, Matt Cain, Max Scherzer,
Tier 3: Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Zack Greinke, Mat Latos, James Shields, Hiroki Kuroda, Kris
Medlen, Chris Sale, Jeremy Hellickson, Doug Fister, Jeff Samardzja, C.J. Wilson, Lance Lynn
Tier 4: Matt Harvey, Shelby Miller, Brandon Morrow, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester, Mike
Minor, Marco Estrada, James McDonald, Homer Bailey, A.J. Burnett, Jarrod Parker, Josh Johnson, Ian
Kennedy, Aroldis Chapman, Josh Beckett, Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Niese, Edwin Jackson, Brett
Anderson
Tier 5: Brandon McCarthy, Paul Maholm, John Danks, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Ryan Dempster,
Ricky Romero, Dan Haren, Ryan Vogelsong, Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Tim
Hudson, Ivan Nova, Erasmo Ramirez , Jason Hammel, Hisashi Iwakuma, Michael Fiers, Alexi Ogando,
Chris Tillman, Ross Detwiler
Tier 6: Tyler Skaggs, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Matt Garza, Johan Santana, Clay Buchholz, Kyle Lohse,
Ubaldo Jimenz, Wade Davis, Julio Teheran, Dan Straily, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Bartolo Colon
Tier 7: Everyone else.
Overall thoughts: Strikeout rates in the Majors have jumped 15% in the past 20 seasons. So it’s even
more important to get pitchers with high strikeout rates. Starting pitcher is the deepest position in
fantasy, which leads a lot of fantasy owners waiting to draft them. However, with pitching as deep as it
is everyone in a fantasy league will have a good pitching staff. Therefore, in order to outperform other
teams, fantasy owners should invest in one of the top 11 pitchers or try to grab three pitchers in the top
30. If you decide to wait on pitching, you’re going to have to crush offense, stream pitchers every week,
and pickup undrafted free agents.
K
194
What the Top 20 SPs Looked Like
W
ERA
WHIP BB/9
16.2
2.97
1.10
2.22
K
139
What the 41-60 SPs Looked Like
W
ERA
WHIP BB/9
11.5
3.73
1.24
2.57
What the Top 21-40 SPs Looked Like
W
ERA
WHIP BB/9
K/9
14.0
3.53
1.22
2.54
7.67
K/9
8.37
K
165
K/9
6.99
What the Top 61-80 SPs Looked Like
K
W
ERA
WHIP BB/9
K/9
121
9.7
3.86
1.25
2.55
7.33
Rankings
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
Clayton Kershaw
Cole Hamels
Stephen Strasburg
David Price
Justin Verlander
Cliff Lee
Felix Hernandez
Yu Darvish
R.A. Dickey
Adam Wainwright
Gio Gonzalez
Matt Moore
CC Sabathia
Jordan Zimmermann
Matt Cain
Jered Weaver
Johnny Cueto
Max Scherzer
Yovani Gallardo
Jake Peavy
Madison Bumgarner
Hiroki Kuroda
Zack Greinke
Chris Sale
Mat Latos
Jeremy Hellickson
Kris Medlen
Jeff Samardzija
James Shields
Lance Lynn
Doug Fister
C.J. Wilson
Matt Harvey
Shelby Miller
Tim Lincecum
Brandon Morrow
Roy Halladay
Ian Kennedy
Marco Estrada
James McDonald
Mike Minor
Homer Bailey
A.J. Burnett
Jarrod Parker
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
Josh Johnson
Jon Lester
Aroldis Chapman
Anibal Sanchez
Jon Niese
Brett Anderson
Edwin Jackson
Josh Beckett
Ricky Romero
Matt Harrison
Wade Miley
Brandon McCarthy
Dan Haren
Andrew Cashner
Derek Holland
Ryan Vogelsong
Trevor Cahill
Ryan Dempster
Erasmo Ramirez
Jason Hammel
Hisashi Iwakuma
Alexi Ogando
Michael Fiers
Chris Tillman
Paul Maholm
John Danks
Ivan Nova
Ross Detwiler
Alex Cobb
Tim Hudson
Tyler Skaggs
Dan Straily
Wade Davis
Andy Pettitte
Clay Buchholz
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Johan Santana
Bartolo Colon
Ubaldo Jimenez
Kyle Lohse
Matt Garza
Julio Teheran
Phil Hughes
Dillon Gee
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
129.
130.
131.
132.
Joe Kelly
Bud Norris
Ervin Santana
Jhoulys Chacin
Jacob Turner
Edinson Volquez
Ricky Nolasco
Justin Masterson
Wei-Yin Chen
Gavin Floyd
Jaime Garcia
Chris Capuano
Jason Vargas
Chris Archer
Lucas Harrell
Aaron Harang
Clayton Richard
Jordan Lyles
Drew Pomeranz
Trevor Bauer
Bronson Arroyo
Danny Hultzen
Mark Buehrle
Dylan Bundy
Wandy Rodriguez
Scott Baker
Francisco Liriano
Jeff Niemann
Trevor Bauer
Tommy Milone
A.J. Griffin
Scott Diamond
Zach McAllister
Kyle McPherson
Shaun Marcum
Chad Billingsley
Nathan Eovaldi
Martin Perez
Brandon Beachy
Felipe Paulino
Michael Pineda
Tommy Hanson
Trevor Rosenthal
Brett Myers
Where I Stand…
Biggest Risk: Kris Medlen
Safest Bet: Cole Hamels
Mid-Round Sleeper: Matt Moore
Late Round Sleeper: Erasmo Ramirez
Don’t Believe the Hype: Matt Cain
Better in H2H Leagues: Mat Latos
Better in Roto Leagues: Max Scherzer
My Favorites: Matt Moore, Jordan Zimmerman
Closers
Tier 1: Craig Kimbrel, Fernando Rodney, Jonathan Papelbon
Tier 2: Jason Motte, Jim Johnson, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, Casey Janssen, John
Axford
Tier 3: Greg Holland, Sergio Romo, Jason Grilli, Grant Balfour, Tom Wilhelmsen, J.J. Putz, Glen Perkins,
Tier 4: Addison Reed, Bruce Rondon, Brandon League, Joel Hanrahan, Steve Cishek, Jose Veras, Jonathan
Broxton, Chris Perez, Houston Street, Ernesto Frieri, Rafael Bentancourt, Carlos Marmol, Bobby Parnell
Overall thoughts: If I’m in a 10-team league I will wait as long as possible before drafting a closer. Saves
will eventually come into the league because the closer position is extremely volatile. Every year some
closers will disappoint and some wildly exceed their pre-draft expectations. There are some pundits that
say draft a “proven” closer because they provide stability. Try telling that to Mariano Rivera owners last
year. Unless I’m in a 15-team league, I’m not thinking about closers until my roster is almost completed.
Rankings
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Craig Kimbrel
Fernando Rodney
Jonathan Papelbon
Jason Motte
Rafael Soriano
Joe Nathan
Casey Janssen
Mariano Rivera
Jim Johnson
John Axford
Greg Holland
Sergio Romo
Tom Wilhelmsen
Grant Balfour
Jason Grilli
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
What the Top 11 Closers Looked Like
K
W
ERA
WHIP
SV
K/9
88
3.6
2.09
0.95
38
11.38
Glen Perkins
J.J. Putz
Huston Street
Addison Reed
Ernesto Frieri
Brandon League
Steve Cishek
Jose Veras
Joel Hanrahan
Jonathan Broxton
Chris Perez
Rafael Betancourt
Bruce Rondon
Bobby Parnell
Carlos Marmol
What the Top 12-28 Closers Looked Like
K
W
ERA
WHIP
SV
K/9
66
3.5
2.86
1.11
25.4
9.45
Where I Stand…
Biggest Risk: Rafael Soriano
Safest Bet: Jonathan Papelbon
Mid-Round Sleeper: Grant Balfour
Late Round Sleeper: Jason Grilli
Don’t Believe the Hype: Jim Johnson
Better in H2H Leagues: Fernando Rodney
Better in Roto Leagues: Chris Perez
My Favorites: Jason Grilli, Tom Wilhelmsen
Hitter Profiles
Please make sure to read my scouting primer before reading my player profiles. Also, all the data comes
from Baseball Prospectus. The “RK” section reads as follows: RK: position rank (top 305 rank).
Dustin Ackley
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Mariners | Position: 2B | RK: 21 (259)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
22
237
5
37
23
2/1
16.0%
8.4%
.274
.342
.439
.781
.314
7.8%
2011
AAA
23
331
9
57
35
7/3
11.5%
16.6%
.303
.421
.487
.908
.324
23.1%
2011
MLB
23
376
6
39
36
6/0
21.0%
10.6%
.273
.348
.417
.765
.339
7.8%
2012
MLB
24
668
12
84
50
13/3
18.6%
8.8%
.226
.294
.328
.622
.265
9.7%
Being taken second overall comes with a lot of expectations about the future potential of a player. After
a promising rookie year, Ackley suffered a sophomore slump, batting .226. He has an outstanding
approach, which would be very helpful for OBP leagues, and has the ability to drive the ball to all fields;
he has doubles power rather than 20+ HR power. He’s been a notoriously slow starter at every level he’s
played at so it appears like he has a big chance to improve upon the numbers he posted last year.
Yonder Alonso
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Padres | Position: 1B | RK: 30 (275)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
23
29
0
2
3
0/0
34.5%
0.0%
.207
.207
.276
.483
.316
0.0%
2011
AAA
24
409
12
46
56
6/5
14.7%
11.2%
.296
.374
.486
.860
.324
19.3%
2011
MLB
24
98
5
9
15
0/0
21.4%
10.2%
.330
.398
.545
.943
.387
31.2%
2012
MLB
25
619
9
47
62
3/0
16.3%
10.0%
.273
.348
.393
.741
.318
7.0%
Alonso has a great bat speed and can hit to all fields. However, his power is limited, especially since he
plays in Petco. If he played in a neutral ballpark I would peg him for 15-19 HRs, but since he doesn’t, 15
is his ceiling. Despite looking bad against left handed pitching in the minors, he made strides in 2012 to
become an average hitter against lefties.
Jose Altuve
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Astros| Position: 2B | RK: 8 (83)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
A+
21
238
5
38
34
19/9
10.9%
8.0%
.408
.451
.606
1.057
.443
250.%
2011
AA
21
153
5
21
25
5/5
9.2%
4.6%
.361
.388
.569
.957
.373
-
2011
MLB
21
234
2
26
12
7/3
12.4%
2.1%
.276
.297
.357
.654
.309
4.7%
2012
MLB
22
630
7
80
37
33/11
11.7%
6.3%
.290
.340
.399
.739
.321
5.4%
In 2012 Jose Altuve proved he was not a gimmick, but in fact a major league all-star. When Altuve made
his debut in 2011 pitchers took advantage of his lack of discipline, which resulted in a 2.1% walk rate.
However, in 2012 his walk rate increased to 6.3% along with his AVG, OBP and SLG. Despite his size he
the ability to barrel up baseballs and hit a lot of doubles. If he hits 10+ HRs fantasy owners should be
ecstatic. He’s going to lead off for the Astros again and should score 90+ runs with a .280+ AVG and 30+
SBs.
Pedro Alvarez
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Pirates | Position: 3B | RK: 20 (255)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
23
386
16
42
64
0/0
30.8%
9.6%
.256
.326
.461
.787
.341
21.6%
2011
AAA
24
148
5
16
19
0/1
28.4%
14.9%
.256
.365
.432
.797
.342
33.4%
2011
MLB
24
262
4
18
19
1/0
30.5%
9.2%
.191
.272
.289
.561
.272
11.8%
2012
MLB
25
586
30
64
85
1/0
30.7%
9.7%
.244
.317
.467
.784
.308
27.5%
Alvarez rebounded in a big way from his 2011 season, hitting 30 HRs and driving in 85 RBI. However, he
is not without his flaws. He strikes out 30% of the time and has trouble hitting good breaking balls,
which is evidenced by the significant decline in fastballs thrown to him in 2012 compared to 2010.
Unless his approach changes, 2012 is the best fantasy owners are going to see.
Elvis Andrus
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Rangers | Position: SS | RK: 9 (107)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
20
541
6
72
40
33/6
14.2%
7.4%
.267
.329
.373
.702
.305
8.6%
2010
MLB
21
674
0
88
35
32/15
14.2%
9.5%
.265
.342
.301
.643
.317
0.0%
2011
MLB
22
665
5
96
60
37/12
11.1%
8.4%
.279
.347
.361
.708
.312
5.2%
2012
MLB
23
711
3
85
62
21/10
13.5%
8.0%
.286
.349
.378
.727
.332
2.9%
Like many owners last year I was hoping for 40+ SBs and 100 runs, but only received 21 SBs and 85 runs.
What was most encouraging about Andrus is his AVG, OBP and SLUG have increased year over year the
past three years. With the loss of Josh Hamilton and his power production, the Rangers may be inclined
to run more. I still believe in his 40+ SB potential. With his “down” year last year, he may be an excellent
value.
Norichika Aoki
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Brewers | Position: OF | RK: 23 (63)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
JPCL
27
624
16
87
66
18/10
10.4%
12%
.303
.400
.444
.844
-
-
2010
JPCL
28
667
14
92
63
19/4
9.2%
9.5%
.358
.435
.509
.944
-
-
2011
JPCL
29
643
4
73
44
8/3
8.6%
7.9%
.292
.358
.360
.718
-
-
2012
MLB
30
588
10
81
50
30/8
9.4%
7.3%
.288
.355
.433
.788
.304
9.7%
The three-time Central League batting champion faired really well in his rookie season. He batted mostly
first and second in the lineup, but he’ll have the most fantasy value if he continues to bat leadoff
because he’ll a really good chance at scoring 100 runs with 25+ SBs. Monitor this situation closely during
spring training.
J.P. Arencibia
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: C | RK: 24 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
459
32
76
85
0/0
18.5%
8.3%
.301
.364
.626
.990
.312
24.0%
2010
MLB
24
37
2
3
4
0/0
29.7%
5.4%
.143
.189
.343
.532
.136
14.3%
2011
MLB
25
486
23
47
78
1/1
27.4%
7.4%
.219
.282
.438
.720
.255
19.8%
2012
MLB
26
372
18
45
56
1/0
29.0%
4.8%
.233
.275
.435
.710
.281
21.7%
Arencibia missed six weeks of the year with a broken hand suffered at the end of July. The biggest
concern I have about this injury is the potential lack of power a lot hitters experience recovering from a
broken hand. It’s been said it can take a year to fully regain the power; in an extremely small size (66
ABs), his home run rate dropped from 5.7% to only 3%. Power is Arencibia’s only asset; take that away
and you have an undraftable player.
Alex Avila
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Tigers | Position: C | RK: 11 (192)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
72
5
9
14
0/0
25.0%
13.9%
.279
.375
.590
.965
.308
31.2%
2010
MLB
23
333
7
28
31
2/2
21.3%
10.8%
.228
.316
.340
.656
.278
10.6%
2011
MLB
24
551
19
63
82
3/1
23.8%
13.2%
.295
.389
.506
.895
.366
15.1%
2012
MLB
25
434
9
42
48
2/0
24.0%
14.1%
.243
.352
.384
.736
.313
10.8%
The fantasy darling two years ago had big drop in production last year. It’s easy to say his BABIP simply
regressed and therefore, his stats regressed. However, why did the BABIP regress? Last year his ground
ball percentage went from 37.8% to 46.4%, which contributed to a lower BABIP. Why was he hitting
more ground balls in 2012? Was a troubled left knee to blame? There had to be something wrong with
him physically; why else would the decrease his workload by a full 100 ABs? Also, he saw 2% less
fastballs; last year he had a .193 batting average against everything besides fastballs; in 2011 he had a
.255 batting average against said pitches.
Mike Aviles
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Inidans| Position: 2B, 3B, SS | RK: 34 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
127
1
10
8
1/0
20.5%
3.1%
.183
.208
.250
.458
.223
3.8%
2010
MLB
29
448
8
63
32
14/5
10.9%
4.5%
.304
.335
.413
.748
.327
7.8%
2011
MLB
30
309
7
31
39
14/4
14.2%
4.2%
.255
.289
.409
.698
.276
8.5%
2012
MLB
31
546
13
57
60
14/6
14.1%
4.2%
.250
.282
.381
.663
.269
9.0%
Aviles’ greatest asset is his position flexibility, making him a solid AL-only play or for the deepest of
leagues. If he becomes a full time starter he provides moderate power and speed (15/15), but if he’s a
bench player you do not want him on your mixed league roster.
Erick Aybar
Bats: B | Age: 29 | Team: Angels | Position: SS | RK: 20 (214)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
556
5
70
58
14/7
9.7%
5.4%
.312
.353
.423
.776
.338
4.3%
2010
MLB
26
589
5
69
29
22/8
13.8%
5.9%
.253
.306
.330
.636
.289
4.4%
2011
MLB
27
605
10
71
59
30/6
11.2%
5.1%
.279
.322
.421
.743
.301
7.5%
2012
MLB
28
554
8
67
45
20/4
11.0%
4.0%
.290
.324
.416
.740
.316
8.0%
Aybar is primarily an AL-only play because he only offers speed. He’s projected to bat second, between
Mike Trout and Albert Pujols; if that is in fact the case, he becomes a more interesting option for deep
mixed leagues because from a two category player to the three category player (runs, AVG, and stolen
bases).
Darwin Barney
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Cubs | Position: 2B | RK: 30 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
510
2
72
49
11/3
10.2%
4.5%
.299
.333
.378
.711
.330
2.2%
2010
MLB
24
85
0
12
2
0/0
14.1%
7.1%
.241
.294
.291
.585
.284
0.0%
2011
MLB
25
570
2
66
43
9/2
11.8%
3.9%
.276
.313
.353
.666
.310
2.0%
2012
MLB
26
588
7
73
44
6/1
9.9%
5.6%
.254
.299
.354
.653
.273
5.4%
Barney is a prototypical type of a player who’s a better in real life than for fantasy. Providing “gold
glove” defense is his greatest attribute as a player, but fantasy owners do not reap the rewards for
defense. He’s an NL-only play as his biggest asset is guaranteed for 550+ plate appearances.
Jose Bautista
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: OF | RK: 17 (44)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
404
13
54
40
4/0
21.0%
13.9%
.235
.349
.408
.757
.275
15.7%
2010
MLB
29
683
54
109
124
9/2
17.0%
14.6%
.260
.378
.617
.995
.233
31.2%
2011
MLB
30
655
43
105
103
9/5
16.9%
20.2%
.302
.447
.608
1.055
.309
33.1%
2012
MLB
31
399
27
64
65
5/2
15.8%
14.8%
.241
.358
.527
.885
.215
27.6%
Bautista is going to be one of the most polarizing players going into drafts; he’s either going to win or
cost fantasy players their championships based on his ADP. His 2012 season was cut short because he
had surgery on a damaged tendon in his left wrist. A hitter’s hands and wrists are extremely important
to hitting and hitting for power. Stephania Bell, a licenses physical therapist at ESPN, said the surgery
reattached the soft tissue and not the tendon; therefore it was a minor wrist surgery. It’s easy to assume
he will come back to the production we saw back in 2010 and 2011, but I’m extremely skeptical. His
biggest fantasy asset is his power, if he doesn’t hit for power he’s a top 50 player and not a top-ten
player. Also, he’s not going to help in the batting average department; in 2011 he batted .302, but that
was BABIP driven. So far in spring training he’s 2 for 16 with both of those hits being home runs.
However, those home runs came against Aaron Cook and Troy Patton.
Gordon Beckham
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: White Sox | Position: 2B | RK: 26 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
430
14
58
63
7/4
15.1%
9.5%
.270
.347
.460
.807
.290
14.4%
2010
MLB
23
498
9
58
49
4/6
18.5%
7.4%
.252
.317
.378
.695
.297
8.7%
2011
MLB
24
557
10
60
44
5/3
19.9%
6.3%
.230
.296
.337
.633
.276
9.5%
2012
MLB
25
582
16
62
60
5/4
15.3%
6.9%
.234
.296
.371
.667
.254
11.8%
Beckman took some steps forward to keeping major league career last year by hitting a career high 16
HRs with an improved his plate discipline and a decrease in strike outs. At the young age of 27, he still
has the opportunity for a breakout many predicted after the 2009 season, but the odds of that
happening are slim.
Brandon Belt
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Giants | Position: 1B, OF | RK: 31 (276)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
22
61
4
11
10
2/0
24.6%
21.3%
.229
.393
.563
.956
.241
28.6%
2011
AAA
23
212
8
32
32
4/4
22.2%
19.8%
.309
.448
.527
.975
.381
36.4%
2011
MLB
23
209
9
21
18
3/2
27.3%
9.6%
.225
.306
.412
.718
.273
20.9%
2012
MLB
24
472
7
47
56
12/2
22.5%
11.4%
.275
.360
.421
.781
.351
6.8%
Is this the year he finally gets 550+ plate appearances? For some reason, the Giants do not like him or
the hitting mechanics that made a top prospect. To quote Keith Law, “The bigger question is why
anyone would have changed his mechanics in the first place, but I've been unable to get an answer to
that. If he gets back to where he was in late 2010, he can still be an above-average or better regular, but
I don't think he'll see that level with the way he's hitting right now.” Monitor him during spring training;
he has the potential to be a nice sleeper.
Carlos Beltran
Bats: B | Age: 36 | Team: Cardinals | Position: OF | RK: 35 (100)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
32
357
10
50
48
11/1
12.0%
13.2%
.325
.415
.500
.915
.352
13.8%
2010
MLB
33
255
7
21
27
3/1
15.3%
11.8%
.255
.341
.427
.768
.275
11.9%
2011
MLB
34
598
22
78
84
4/2
14.7%
11.9%
.300
.385
.525
.910
.324
15.9%
2012
MLB
35
619
32
83
97
13/6
20.0%
10.5%
.269
.346
.495
.841
.291
26.7%
Unexpectedly, Beltran’s speed and power “came back” with 13 SBs and 32 HRs, putting him 42nd on
ESPNs Player Rater. All the underlying numbers suggest he’s due for a regression; a 20% SO%, the
highest in his career and 26% HR/FB rate. Beltran is an injury risk waiting to happen, averaging 109
games played in the last four years. This is a player who is not going to be on any of my teams because
the cost is going to be too high.
Adrian Beltre
Bats: R | Age: 34 | Team: Rangers | Position: 3B | RK: 2 (14)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
477
8
54
44
13/2
15.5%
4.0%
.265
.304
.379
.683
.301
7.2%
2010
MLB
31
641
28
84
102
2/1
12.8%
6.2%
.321
.365
.553
.918
.331
19.0%
2011
MLB
32
525
32
82
105
1/1
10.1%
4.8%
.296
.331
.561
.892
.273
21.4%
2012
MLB
33
654
36
95
102
1/0
12.5%
5.5%
.321
.359
.561
.920
.319
20.7%
Beltre may be one of the most underappreciated players of his era. Last year Beltre tied a career high
with 156 games played. After looking at his numbers I don’t see any reason why he cannot repeat his
2012 performance. He’ll start the season at the age of 34 and has only averaged 136 games the last four
years so factor in his injury risk.
Lance Berkman
Bats: B | Age: 37 | Team: Rangers | Position: 1B | RK: 18 (160)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
33
562
25
73
80
7/4
17.4%
17.3%
.274
.399
.509
.908
.296
20.6%
2010
MLB
34
481
14
48
58
3/2
17.7%
16.0%
.248
.368
.413
.781
.282
17.7%
2011
MLB
35
587
31
90
94
2/6
15.8%
15.7%
.301
.412
.547
.959
.315
25.6%
2012
MLB
36
97
2
12
7
2/0
19.6%
14.4%
.259
.381
.444
.825
.317
14.3%
The Rangers inked Berkman to a one-year, $10 million deal to be their DH. The biggest question for
Berkman is health. The two surgeries he had on his right knee limited him to only 32 games last year. He
is two years removed from a spectacular season with .959 OPS with 31 HRs. A massive platoon split
against lefties (slash line for the past three years: .225/.307/.370) makes him a fantasy liability. He’ll
start the year at the age of 37, albeit in a great hitter’s park, with a lot of questions. If you can get him at
a good discount, he’s worth a shot.
Emilio Bonifacio
Bats: B | Age: 28 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: OF, 2B | RK: 15 (166)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
509
1
72
27
21/9
18.7%
6.7%
.252
.303
.308
.611
.312
1.2%
2010
MLB
25
201
0
30
10
12/0
20.9%
8.5%
.261
.320
.328
.648
.333
0.0%
2011
MLB
26
641
5
78
36
40/11
20.1%
9.2%
.296
.360
.393
.753
.372
6.6%
2012
MLB
27
274
1
30
11
30/3
19.0%
9.1%
.258
.330
.316
.646
.325
2.9%
Last year Bonifacio had a lot of fantasy hype entering drafts because of the 40 steals he put up the year
before and he was entering spring training with a starting job in center field. In only 64 games he stole
30 bases. If he played in 150 games he could’ve had 70 stolen bases. Unfortunately, his season was
marred with injuries to his thumb and knee, which landed him on the disabled list three times. He enters
the 2013 season as the starting second baseman in the suddenly stacked Blue Jays lineup and is poised
for a breakout fantasy season. He only played 15 games at second base so he may not be eligible in
every league at the start of the year.
Peter Bourjos
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Angels | Position: OF | RK: 47 (148)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
23
193
6
19
15
10/3
20.7%
3.1%
.204
.237
.381
.618
.228
13.3%
2011
MLB
24
552
12
72
43
22/9
22.5%
5.8%
.271
.327
.438
.765
.338
12.0%
2012
AAA
25
32
0
4
3
0/0
18.8%
9.4%
.310
.375
.552
.927
.391
0.0%
2012
MLB
25
195
3
27
19
3/1
22.6%
7.7%
.220
.291
.315
.606
.274
9.1%
After Kendrys Morales was traded to the Mariners Bourjis became the Angels starting center fielder. He
could be the best center fielder in the American League; he’s so good that he’s forcing Mike Trout to left
field. I consider 2012 a lost season because of an extremely low BABIP (.274) and he was yo-yoed in and
out the lineup, increasing the difficulty to make adjustments. He has the ability to be a 10/35 player with
a .265 AVG.
Michael Bourn
Bats: L | Age: 30 | Team: Indians | Position: OF | RK: 29 (89)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
678
3
97
35
61/12
20.6%
9.3%
.285
.354
.384
.738
.366
3.3%
2010
MLB
27
605
2
84
38
52/12
18.0%
9.8%
.265
.341
.346
.687
.329
2.2%
2011
MLB
28
722
2
94
50
61/14
19.4%
7.3%
.294
.349
.386
.735
.369
1.9%
2012
MLB
29
703
9
96
57
42/13
22.0%
10.0%
.274
.348
.391
.739
.349
8.1%
Do you feel the need for speed? Surprisingly the Cleveland Indians signed Bourn four-year, $56 million
contract. I’m surprised he landed with the Indians because they already had a superb defender in Drew
Stubbs and another capable center fielder in Michael Brantly. Let’s start with the good first. Let’s start
with the good first. Despite only stealing 42 bags, Michael Bourn was second in the NL in steals. His year
could have been a lot better if it wasn’t for a very poor second half of the season where he up a
.225/.325/.311 slash line. The biggest contributor to his poor performance in the second half was
inability to hit the fastball where only had .246 batting average. In 2010 and 2011 he had a .306 and .339
batting average against fastballs. The decline in batting average could mean a decline in bat speed which
could lead to a sharp decline in his production.
AVG
.392
.260
1st Half
2nd Half
OBP
.443
.362
SLG
.586
.374
OPS
1.029
.736
SO%
10.7%
16.3%
BB%
9.1%
13.1%
HR%
3.1%
0.8%
Michael Brantley
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Indians | Position: OF | RK: 85 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
121
0
10
11
4/4
15.7%
6.6%
.313
.358
.348
.706
.376
0.0%
2010
MLB
23
325
3
38
22
10/2
11.7%
6.8%
.246
.296
.327
.623
.271
4.9%
2011
MLB
24
496
7
63
46
13/5
15.3%
6.9%
.266
.318
.384
.702
.303
7.5%
2012
MLB
25
609
6
63
60
12/9
9.2%
8.7%
.288
.348
.402
.750
.310
4.7%
Brantley has the speed to steal 30+ SBs, but has never come close; 13 is the most he’s ever stole. Terry
Francona, the Indians new manager is extremely flexible on how to best utilize the talent of the players
given to him. During the first three years (2004-06) with the Red Sox they finished 23rd, 29th and 30th in
stolen bases attempted. However, in 2008-09 the Red Sox were 9th and 6th respectively. What changed?
He had Jacoby Ellsbury. If you take a flier on Brantley at the end of the draft you may find cheap steals.
Rob Brantly
Bats: L | Age: 23 | Team: Marlins | Position: C | RK: 22 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
A+
21
155
3
16
18
0/0
11.0%
3.2%
.219
.239
.322
.561
.223
2011
2012
AA
22
195
3
16
24
0/3
8.7%
6.2%
.311
.359
.461
.820
.329
2012
2012
AAA
22
193
2
18
17
0/0
17.6%
4.1%
.286
.321
.363
.684
.340
2012
2012
MLB
22
113
3
14
8
1/1
14.2%
11.5%
.290
.372
.460
.832
.321
2012
Brantly looked great in his brief 31 games in September. His hit tool is solid average and has good gap
power. In terms of home run power, 10 is his ceiling, but he can hit both lefties and righties, which
means he can get consistent playing time. He should open the year as the Marlins starting catcher and is
the perfect catcher in two catcher leagues because he’ll provide a solid AVG with the potential for some
pop.
Ryan Braun
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
708
32
113
114
20/6
17.1%
8.1%
.320
.386
.551
.937
.353
27.4%
2010
MLB
26
684
25
101
103
14/3
15.4%
8.2%
.304
.365
.501
.866
.331
20.1%
2011
MLB
27
629
33
109
111
33/6
14.8%
9.2%
.332
.397
.597
.994
.350
24.2%
2012
MLB
28
677
41
108
112
30/7
18.9%
9.3%
.319
.391
.595
.986
.346
27.8%
Last year I stayed away from Braun in all my drafts because of an irrational fear he would regress due to
the loss of Prince Fielder and the off the field incident involving a 50 game suspension. I believed he
would be walked more and see fewer pitches to hit because he didn’t have protection in the lineup. I
was 100% wrong because he put up better numbers than he did during his MVP season in 2011. One of
the strikes against him is strikeout rate. Last year his strikeout rate (18.9%) was the highest it’s been
since 2008. If this trend continues his batting average ceiling could be in the low .300s instead of the
.320s. Another strike is he just turned 29, which may impact on his stolen base potential. Instead of
grabbing 30 bags, he may only steal bases in the low 20s. In order to justify the first overall pick will
require him to steal 25+ bases again. Braun had a career high in home runs with 41, but that coincided
with a career high in his HR/FB rate (27.8%). His average HR/FB rate for his career is 18.8%, so if he
regresses back to his average he’ll be a 30-34 home player instead of a 41 homer player.
Domonic Brown
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Phillies | Position: OF | RK: 90 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
23
174
3
22
15
12/4
19.0%
16.1%
.261
.391
.370
.761
.311
-
2011
MLB
23
210
5
28
19
3/1
16.7%
11.9%
.245
.333
.391
.724
.276
12.8%
2012
AAA
24
239
5
33
28
4/6
17.6%
7.1%
.286
.335
.432
.767
.331
14.3%
2012
MLB
24
212
5
21
26
0/0
16.0%
9.9%
.235
.316
.396
.712
.260
13.5%
Most non-Phillies fans remember that Brown was the cornerstone of the Phillies farm system just two
years ago. At the age of 25, it may be too soon to call Brown a bust, but he’s getting closer and closer
each year. It looks as though they’re going give him 500+ ABs to see what he can do. The raw tools of
super star are still there, but he wasn’t even hitting Triple-A pitching last year; .286/.335/.432.
Jay Bruce
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Reds | Position: OF | RK: 15 (42)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
387
22
47
58
3/3
19.4%
9.8%
.223
.303
.470
.773
.221
22.2%
2010
MLB
23
573
25
80
70
5/4
23.7%
10.1%
.281
.353
.493
.846
.334
20.0%
2011
MLB
24
664
32
84
97
8/7
23.8%
10.7%
.256
.341
.474
.815
.297
19.4%
2012
MLB
25
633
34
89
99
9/3
24.5%
9.8%
.252
.327
.514
.841
.283
22.4%
I love Jay Bruce. I’ve had him in every league for the past three seasons. His HRs have increased every
year he’s been in the big leagues. This is the year he hits 40+ HRs. I would feel more assured about that
statement if he batted fourth instead of fifth; for some reason Dusty Baker wants to mix and match
hitters, believing Ryan Ludwick is the bitter hitter and thus more deserving of more run producing
opportunities. Bruce will never hit more than .265, but fantasy owners are not drafting him for his AVG.
Billy Butler
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Royals | Position: 1B | RK: 6 (35)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
672
21
78
93
1/0
15.3%
8.6%
.301
.362
.492
.854
.332
14.5%
2010
MLB
24
678
15
77
78
0/0
11.5%
10.2%
.318
.388
.469
.857
.341
10.4%
2011
MLB
25
673
19
74
95
2/1
14.1%
9.8%
.291
.361
.461
.822
.316
12.7%
2012
MLB
26
679
29
72
107
2/1
16.3%
8.0%
.313
.373
.510
.883
.341
20.6%
Like Prince Fielder, Butler has been very healthy his entire career, averaging 159 games played the past
four years. His HR/FB rate of 20.6% is probably unsustainable, but during the second half of the 2011
season Butler began swinging at more pitches and becoming more aggressive at the plate. The trend
continued in 2012 as he set career highs in HRs and RBI. He’s entering his prime and could be in line for
breakout in 2013.
Asdrubal Cabrera
Bats: B | Age: 27 | Team: Indians | Position: SS | RK: 6 (73)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
581
6
81
68
17/4
15.3%
7.6%
.308
.361
.438
.799
.360
5.3%
2010
MLB
24
425
3
39
29
6/4
14.1%
5.9%
.276
.326
.346
.672
.318
3.6%
2011
MLB
25
667
25
87
92
17/5
17.8%
6.6%
.273
.332
.460
.792
.302
15.6%
2012
MLB
26
616
16
70
68
9/4
16.1%
8.4%
.270
.338
.423
.761
.303
11.9%
Fantasy owners who expected Cabrera to build upon his 2011 season were disappointed. Even though
he had a down year he was playing through various nagging injuries during the second half of the year.
He’ll enter 2013 as the starting shortstop and is expected to bat in the middle of a surprising revamped
offense with Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Drew Stubbs. The shortstop position is very scarce, but
Cabrera could quietly provide 20 HRs with 90+ RBI with a .270 AVG.
Everth Cabrera
Bats: B | Age: 26 | Team: Padres| Position: SS | RK: 12 (139)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
23
241
1
22
22
10/6
22.4%
7.9%
.208
.279
.278
.557
.274
3.4%
2011
AAA
24
278
2
52
15
29/8
14.4%
10.4%
.297
.370
.402
.772
.346
8.0%
2012
AAA
25
159
0
27
15
15/0
17.6%
7.5%
.333
.389
.410
.799
.414
0.0%
2012
MLB
25
449
2
49
24
44/4
24.5%
9.6%
.246
.324
.324
.648
.336
4.6%
Even though he started the year in Triple-A and only received 398 ABs in the majors, Cabrera finished
third in the league with 44 SBs. He finished the year with a slash line of .246/.324/.324. That may look
really low and there’s room for improvement, but he achieved those stats with a .336 BABIP. He struck
out nearly 25% of the time so his AVG could be a huge liability for fantasy teams. This year he has the
starting job and is likely to lead off for the Padres. Like the pre-draft hype for Michael Bourn a year ago,
if he plays a full season he has the opportunity to win you a category. The speed is for real and he’s on a
team that had the most SB attempts so it will be interesting where he goes in drafts.
Melky Cabrera
Bats: B | Age: 28 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: OF | RK: 39 (118)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
540
13
66
68
10/2
10.9%
8.0%
.274
.336
.416
.752
.288
13.6%
2010
MLB
25
509
4
50
42
7/1
12.6%
8.3%
.255
.317
.354
.671
.288
4.0%
2011
MLB
26
706
18
102
87
20/10
13.3%
5.0%
.305
.339
.470
.809
.332
11.4%
2012
MLB
27
501
11
84
60
13/5
12.6%
7.2%
.346
.390
.516
.906
.379
12.8%
During the middle of August Cabrera was suspended 50 games for testing positive for testosterone, a
performance enhancing drug (PED). Contrary to popular belief, I haven’t seen any evidence showing
and/or linking PEDs to improved player performance. Even though he’s likely to hit .280-.295, Cabrera
has 20/20 potential in one of the best lineups in baseball. He will be a steal if he slips to the seventh,
eighth round.
Miguel Cabrera
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Tigers | Position: 3B | RK: 1 (3)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
685
34
96
103
6/2
15.6%
9.9%
.324
.396
.547
.943
.348
27.7%
2010
MLB
27
648
38
111
126
3/3
14.7%
13.7%
.328
.420
.622
1.042
.336
26.0%
2011
MLB
28
688
30
111
105
2/1
12.9%
15.7%
.344
.448
.586
1.034
.365
21.9%
2012
MLB
29
697
44
109
139
4/1
14.1%
9.5%
.330
.393
.606
.999
.331
24.2%
Cabrera’s Triple Crown resulted in him receiving the MVP award. He is the model of consistency, putting
up great numbers in four out of five traditional scoring categories every year since the age of 21. The key
word in that statement was four. He’s a great player, but he only helps fantasy owners in four
categories. There were more stolen bases attempts in 2011 than any time in the previous 12 years. In
2012 there was only a slight decrease (3.8%) in steals compared to 2011. Stolen bases are up. Players
who don’t provide steals have to provide elite production in the other four categories in order to be a
first round pick, which Cabrera can do. However, drafting Cabrera changes the way fantasy owners build
their teams during the draft. For example, suppose it’s the middle of the fifth round and the Miguel
Cabrera owner is debating between grabbing Michael Bourn, Pablo Sandoval or Billy Butler. Maybe the
owner passes on Bourn. Eventually the owner will have to take speed player, who will most likely
contribute to only one or two categories, such as Ben Revere, Juan Pierre, Darin Mastroianni at the end
of drafts to make up for not taking a Ryan Braun or a Mike Trout. Another strike is third base pretty
deep for the first time in a while. I currently have Will Middlebrooks, who has the potential to hit 30
home runs and 100 RBI, as my 17th rated third baseman. Cabrera had a career best with 44 home runs
last year. The power surge was aided by career high in his HR/FB rate (24%). His career average HR/FB
rate is 18.9% so expecting another 40+ home runs season is a stretch. What helps Cabrera is the return
of Victor Martinez, who missed the entire 2012 season with a torn ACL. Martinez is replacing the free
swinging machine known as Delmon Young in the lineup so there could Cabrera could score more runs.
Lorenzo Cain
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Royals | Position: OF | RK: 43 (129)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
100
0
13
9
5/1
17.0%
11.0%
.299
.380
.425
.805
.366
0.0%
2010
MLB
24
158
1
17
13
7/1
17.7%
5.7%
.306
.348
.415
.763
.370
3.4%
2011
AAA
25
549
16
84
81
16/6
18.6%
7.3%
.312
.380
.497
.877
.366
34.1%
2012
MLB
26
244
7
27
31
10/0
23.0%
6.1%
.266
.316
.419
.735
.319
14.6%
After an injury plagued season, Cain looks to be the starting center fielder for the Royals. If he plays a
full season his floor is 10/10, but his ceiling is a 20/20. If he’s looking to increase his AVG he’s going to
have an adjustment at the plate, specifically taking what the pitcher gives him instead of trying to
constantly drive the ball. This is the type of player fantasy owners can get at the end of drafts that brings
them a championship.
Robinson Cano
Bats: L | Age: 30 | Team: Yankees | Position: 2B | RK: 1 (4)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
674
25
103
85
5/7
9.3%
4.5%
.320
.352
.520
.872
.324
16.6%
2010
MLB
27
696
29
103
109
3/2
11.1%
8.2%
.319
.381
.534
.915
.326
18.9%
2011
MLB
28
681
28
104
118
8/2
14.1%
5.6%
.302
.349
.533
.882
.316
21.7%
2012
MLB
29
697
33
105
94
3/2
13.8%
8.8%
.313
.379
.550
.929
.326
27.8%
Cano has been the model of consistency the past four seasons posting an average stat line of 639 plate
appearances, 104 R, 29 HRs, .314 AVG and 4 SBs. Last year he was third in the league batting with hitting
with runners on base. Derek Jeter may not be ready at the start of the year, leaving Ichiro and his .310
OBP in the leadoff spot (hopefully its Brett Gardner). If that scenario happens, Cano will bat with fewer
runners on base and will have fewer RBI opportunities. Cano is a free agent at the end of the year; I
personally do not feel it means anything, but it’s another piece of information that could be helpful.
Matt Carpenter
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Cardinals | Position: 1B, OF, 3B, 2B | RK: 20 (258)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
A+
24
128
1
17
16
0/1
10.9%
20.3%
.283
.438
.404
.842
.318
3.6%
2010
AA
24
472
12
76
53
11/2
18.6%
13.6%
.316
.412
.487
.899
.377
11.7%
2011
AAA
25
535
12
61
70
5/4
12.7%
15.7%
.300
.417
.463
.880
.328
-
2012
MLB
26
340
6
44
46
1/1
18.5%
10.0%
.294
.365
.463
.828
.346
7.0%
He has a quick swing and a fantastic approach at the plate will allow him to hit for a high average and
OBP. If he was given full playing time he could hit 12-15 home runs, but that’s the biggest roadblock to
him being fantasy relevant. The chatter around Cardinals camp is he’s going to be the starting second
baseman; if that’s true he’s a top 15 second baseman.
Chris Carter
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Astros | Position: 1B | RK: 21 (165)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
24
344
18
55
72
5/1
10.8%
12.2%
.274
.366
.530
.896
.321
-
2011
MLB
24
46
0
2
0
0/0
43.5%
4.3%
.136
.174
.136
.310
.250
0.0%
2012
AAA
25
324
12
48
53
5/1
22.8%
11.7%
.279
.367
.486
.853
.332
15.6%
2012
MLB
25
260
16
38
39
0/0
31.9%
15.0%
.239
.350
.514
.864
.295
31.3%
What do Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz and Jason Werth all have in common? They’re right handed power
hitters who were slow to develop and received the unfortunate label of Quad-A player before figuring
out big league pitching. Being traded to the rebuilding Astros only helps his fantasy value as he enters
spring training as the front-runner to become the starting DH. Carlos Pena will be in the mix for at bats
at DH, but Pena isn't part of the Astros long term plans while Carter, who just turned 26, can be. Carter
has the potential to hit 35+ home runs if given a full-time job. There’s a lot of swing and miss with his
swing, which gives him a .265 batting average ceiling. There’s also chatter the Astros will play him in left
field, which makes Carter an even more intriguing player.
Welington Castillo
Bats: R | Age: 25 | Team: Cubs | Position: C | RK: 16 (303)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
23
272
13
35
59
0/2
21.3%
7.0%
.255
.325
.498
.823
.284
17.4%
2011
AAA
24
251
15
38
35
0/0
22.7%
8.0%
.286
.351
.524
.875
.321
75.0%
2012
AAA
25
176
6
22
22
0/0
21.0%
13.1%
.260
.375
.425
.800
.305
19.4%
2012
MLB
25
190
5
16
22
0/0
26.8%
8.9%
.265
.337
.418
.755
.348
16.7%
After two years of September call ups, it finally appears Castillo will get an opportunity to be a full time
player at the big league level. In 52 games (in the majors) he put up a slash line of .265/.337/.418 along
with five home runs. In 175 games in Triple-A he’s hit 33 HRs with his power coming primarily from
strength rather than bat speed. He can drive balls against lefties and righties, but his impatient approach
will make him a .260 hitter. With a current ADP of 20 among catchers, he’s a tremendous value because
he can hit 20-23 home runs if given 525 plate appearances. He’s the perfect catcher to fill out your 12team two catcher league.
Jason Castro
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Cubs | Position: SS | RK: 20 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
AA
22
268
3
38
29
2/1
13.1%
9.3%
.293
.365
.385
.750
.333
4.4%
2010
AAA
23
244
4
31
26
1/1
13.9%
13.1%
.265
.365
.355
.720
.301
8.0%
2010
MLB
23
217
2
26
8
0/0
18.9%
10.1%
.205
.286
.287
.573
.250
5.4%
2012
MLB
25
295
6
29
29
0/0
20.7%
10.5%
.257
.334
.401
.735
.309
10.9%
In 2010 Castro was the Astros #1 prospect according to Baseball America. He missed the entire 2011
season and one month of 2012 recovering from a torn ACL. He has an average hit tool and power so he
could finish the year hitting .265-.285 with 10-15 home runs. He enters the year as the Astros starting
catcher and doesn’t have anyone digging in on his heels for playing time. He shouldn’t be owned in one
catcher leagues, but he’s someone I’ll target in my NFBC leagues.
Starlin Castro
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Cubs | Position: SS | RK: 3 (34)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
20
121
1
20
20
4/5
9.1%
7.4%
.376
.429
.569
.998
.412
3.7%
2010
MLB
20
506
3
53
41
10/8
14.0%
5.7%
.300
.347
.408
.755
.346
3.4%
2011
MLB
21
715
10
91
66
22/9
13.4%
4.9%
.307
.341
.432
.773
.344
6.7%
2012
MLB
22
691
14
78
78
25/13
14.5%
5.2%
.283
.323
.430
.753
.315
9.6%
Play close attention to where Castro hits in the batting order as it will impact the type of fantasy
producer he’ll be. Hitting second or third provides the most upside in terms of runs and RBI. According
to MLB Depth Charts, they have him hitting fifth. If that proves to be accurate his potential to score runs
will be suppressed. Castro has a high floor and a high ceiling. He may give fantasy owners the same
fantasy value of Jose Reyes, but four or five rounds later.
Yoenis Cespedes
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Athletics | Position: OF, DH | RK: 11 (29)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2012
MLB
26
540
23
70
82
16/4
18.9%
8.0%
.292
.356
.505
.861
.326
21.3%
Despite being hampered by various injuries, Cespedes finished the year 56th on ESPNs Player Rater.
Cespedes missed most of May with a strained muscle in his left hand. After coming off the DL he
proceeded to hit .304/.362/.525 the rest of the year. Along with Cespedes, Oakland is going to have a
steady rotation of three other outfielders: Chris Young, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick. A consistent
rotation of outfielders will keep Cespedes fresh throughout the year because he looked tired at the end
of last year. If he can play a full year, he can be a top 15 fantasy player.
Lonnie Chisenhall
Bats: L | Age: 24 | Team: Indians | Position: 3B | RK: 19 (254)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
22
292
7
45
45
0/1
16.1%
9.6%
.267
.353
.431
.784
.300
-
2011
MLB
22
223
7
27
22
1/0
22.0%
3.6%
.255
.284
.415
.699
.299
15.5%
2012
AAA
23
126
4
16
17
0/0
17.5%
3.2%
.314
.341
.517
.858
.351
15.4%
2012
MLB
23
151
5
16
16
2/1
17.9%
5.3%
.268
.311
.430
.741
.300
18.5%
Even though he’s been marred by injuries the past two seasons (broken right forearm in 2012 and
concussion in 2011), they were fluky game-related injuries. It’s easy to write him off because his poor
command of the strike zone, which causes him to swing and miss a lot. But two years ago he was one of
the Indians top rated prospects. If he can finally stay healthy, he’ll have time to (potentially) make
adjustments and try to live up to the scouting reports two years ago. He’s always struggled against left
handed pitching so a platoon may be his ultimate destination, but I love the swing and he has raw power
to hit 20+ HRs with a .270 AVG.
Shin-Soo Choo
Bats: L | Age: 30 | Team: Reds | Position: OF | RK: 15 (52)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
685
20
87
86
21/2
22.0%
11.4%
.300
.394
.489
.883
.370
14.8%
2010
MLB
27
646
22
81
90
22/7
18.3%
12.8%
.300
.401
.484
.885
.347
17.2%
2011
MLB
28
358
8
37
36
12/5
21.8%
10.1%
.259
.344
.390
.734
.317
12.1%
2012
MLB
29
686
16
88
67
21/7
21.9%
10.6%
.283
.373
.441
.814
.353
14.7%
A year removed from injuries and off the field troubles, Choo rebounded nicely with a year similar to the
years he put up in 2008-2010. Even though Choo will play his home games at Great American Ball Park,
one of the best offensive ballparks, the upgrade will be minimal as there isn’t a big gap for left handed
power between Cleveland and Cincinnati. He’s expected to lead-off, which will limit his ability to drive in
runs, but he’s inline to score 100+ runs with a fully healthy Joey Votto batting behind him. His ground
ball percentage was nearly five percentage points higher than last year, which means his power ceiling
may be in the high teens instead of the mid-20s.
Tyler Colvin
Bats: L | Age: 27 | Team: Rockies | Position: 1B, OF | RK: 37 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
24
394
20
60
56
6/1
25.4%
7.6%
.254
.316
.500
.816
.296
24.7%
2011
AAA
25
212
7
32
32
1/1
25.9%
2.4%
.256
.270
.478
.748
.313
46.7%
2011
MLB
25
222
6
17
20
0/0
26.1%
6.3%
.150
.204
.306
.510
.175
12.2%
2012
MLB
26
452
18
62
72
7/3
25.9%
4.6%
.290
.327
.531
.858
.364
19.6%
Like most hitters for Colorado, Colvin’s high AVG was due to the Coors Effect. Colvin has a lot of swing
and miss in his bat, which will limit his opportunities for consistent playing time. He’s currently blocked
from a starting position, but if he were to get 550 plate appearances he could hit 20+ HRs. Unless he has
a disproportional number of plate appearances at home, hitting .290+ will not happen; at home he hit
.338 compared to only .244 on the road.
Zack Cozart
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Reds | Position: SS | RK: 27 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
AA
23
541
10
72
59
10/2
16.1%
11.6%
.262
.361
.398
.759
.302
8.4%
2010
AAA
24
610
17
91
67
30/4
17.5%
6.6%
.255
.309
.416
.725
.285
12.1%
2011
AAA
25
350
7
57
32
9/2
14.6%
6.6%
.310
.357
.467
.824
.348
12.5%
2012
MLB
26
600
15
72
35
4/0
18.8%
5.2%
.246
.288
.399
.687
.282
11.4%
After an injury plagued 2011 season, Cozart finally got an opportunity to be the everyday shortstop for
the Reds. His biggest asset is with his solid fundamental defense. His ultimate ceiling is a .265 AVG with
15 HRs and 30 SBs. He stole 30 bags in Triple-A back in 2010 so he has the speed to steal more if given
the opportunity.
Allen Craig
Bats: R | Age: 28 | Team: Cardinals | Position: 1B, OF | RK: 7 (28)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
25
350
14
57
81
1/0
16.9%
9.7%
.320
.395
.549
.944
.361
15.1%
2010
MLB
25
124
4
12
18
0/1
21.0%
7.3%
.246
.298
.412
.710
.282
11.8%
2011
MLB
26
219
11
33
40
5/0
18.3%
6.8%
.315
.362
.555
.917
.344
20.4%
2012
MLB
27
514
22
76
92
2/1
17.3%
7.2%
.307
.354
.522
.876
.334
21.5%
The biggest question about Craig has never been about his skill set, but about his ability to play a full
season. In the last two seasons he’s only totaled 773 plate appearances. With those appearances he’s
been extremely productive; his .532 SLG the past two years ranks him 14th among hitters with 700+
plate appearances. Craig enters the year as the full time first baseman, which should give him better
opportunity to stay healthy. He’s one of the rare mid-round players who could deliver a top 10 fantasy
season. For more information checkout my article at BaseballAnalytics.org.
Carl Crawford
Bats: L | Age: 31 | Team: Dodgers | Position: OF | RK: 65 (297)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
672
15
96
68
60/16
14.7%
7.6%
.305
.364
.452
.816
.342
13.0%
2010
MLB
28
657
19
110
90
47/10
15.8%
7.0%
.307
.356
.495
.851
.342
13.4%
2011
MLB
29
538
11
65
56
18/6
19.3%
4.3%
.255
.289
.405
.694
.299
10.4%
2012
MLB
30
125
3
23
19
5/0
17.6%
2.4%
.282
.306
.479
.785
.319
13.8%
After more than year of elbow issues, Crawford had Tommy John surgery in August. The timetable for
his return to game action depends on how he looks in spring training. Once he makes it back to the big
leagues he is expected to leadoff for one of the best lineups in baseball. He entered the age when
players start their decline, which makes it hard to see the upside in Crawford any more. He can’t hit
lefties, doesn’t get on base, .324 OBP the past three seasons, and has never hit more than 19 HRs in a
season.
Coco Crisp
Bats: B | Age: 33 | Team: Athletics | Position: OF | RK: 50 (174)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
215
3
30
14
13/2
10.7%
13.5%
.228
.336
.378
.714
.245
6.5%
2010
MLB
30
328
8
51
38
32/3
14.9%
9.1%
.279
.342
.438
.780
.307
13.3%
2011
MLB
31
583
8
69
54
49/9
11.1%
7.0%
.264
.314
.379
.693
.284
6.6%
2012
MLB
32
508
11
68
46
39/4
12.6%
8.9%
.259
.325
.418
.743
.280
9.9%
Known for bringing the Bernie Lean to the Oakland Coliseum and to other athletes, Crisp, in only 455
plate appearance, stole 39 SBs in 43 attempts. Entering 2013, Crisp will be part of the four-headed
outfield monster with Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes and Chris Young. Seth Smith is also there, but his
primary role will be DH against right handed pitching. If Chris Young returns to his pre-2011 form, Crisp
may be the odd man out in center field. Crisp’s injuries in 2012 were fluky as he was slowed down to by
ear and eye infections. His AVG has decreased year over year for the past three years, but that is due to
a low BABIP than a change in skill set and/or approach. Crisp’s ceiling is 50+ SBs and 90+ runs.
Nelson Cruz
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Rangers | Position: OF | RK: 52 (185)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
515
33
75
76
20/4
22.9%
9.5%
.260
.332
.524
.856
.278
29.0%
2010
MLB
29
445
22
60
78
17/4
18.2%
8.5%
.318
.374
.576
.950
.348
19.3%
2011
MLB
30
513
29
64
87
9/5
22.6%
6.4%
.263
.312
.509
.821
.288
25.0%
2012
MLB
31
642
24
86
90
8/4
21.8%
7.5%
.260
.319
.460
.779
.301
16.1%
Last year Nelson Cruz played a full year, making 2012 the first year he’s played in more than 129 games.
Despite playing in more games, last year was the first year in five years his SLG percentage dipped below
.500. The 15+ stolen bases are no longer there; instead fantasy owners should expect seven stolen bases
and be elated if he steals more. He’s currently going as the 26th outfielder at Mock Draft Central, which
means fantasy owners are expecting him to provide the stats he put in 2009, which isn’t going to
happen.
Michael Cuddyer
Bats: R | Age: 34 | Team: Rockies | Position: OF | RK: 38 (117)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
650
32
93
94
6/1
18.2%
8.3%
.276
.342
.520
.862
.295
22.2%
2010
MLB
31
675
14
93
81
7/3
13.8%
8.6%
.271
.336
.417
.753
.298
10.3%
2011
MLB
32
584
20
70
70
11/1
16.3%
8.2%
.284
.346
.459
.805
.312
16.4%
2012
MLB
33
394
16
53
58
8/3
19.8%
8.1%
.260
.317
.489
.806
.287
20.8%
The last 44 games of Cuddyer’s season was cut short to a right oblique strain. Before the injury he was
on pace for 27 HRs and 13 SBs, which is on par with what he’s done the two years previous. He’ll start
the year at the age of 34 so the best years may be behind him, but never count out a player who plays
half his games in Coors Field. Cuddyer didn’t get a substantial boost playing in Coors only hitting .268.
However, unlike most of the Rockies players his numbers didn’t fall off dramatically on road; where he
had a .250 batting average.
Travis d'Arnaud
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Mets | Position: C | RK: 27 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
A
20
540
13
71
71
8/4
13.9%
7.6%
.255
.324
.419
.743
.279
7.8%
2010
A+
21
292
6
36
38
3/1
21.6%
6.8%
.259
.321
.411
.732
.320
8.2%
2011
AA
22
466
21
72
78
4/2
21.5%
7.1%
.311
.371
.542
.913
.365
-
2012
AAA
23
303
16
45
52
1/1
19.5%
6.3%
.333
.380
.595
.975
.374
24.2%
Travis d’Arnaud has the upside to be one of the five best catchers in the game with his above average
hitting and power with above average defense potential. It remains to be seen if he’ll make the club
after spring training but if he does it’s not a guarantee he’s a productive fantasy player right away. He’s
been hampered by injuries his entire career, averaging 88 games played per year. Unlike any other
position, catching prospects taking the longest to reach their ceiling because of the punishment their
bodies take and the acclimation process of catching in the big leagues. He’s a must own in two catcher
mixed leagues.
Chris Davis
Bats: L | Age: 27 | Team: Orioles | Position: 1B, OF, DH | RK: 22 (182)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
24
136
1
7
4
3/0
29.4%
11.0%
.192
.279
.292
.571
.275
3.7%
2011
AAA
25
210
24
39
66
1/0
27.6%
5.2%
.368
.405
.824
1.229
.412
-
2011
MLB
25
210
5
25
19
1/0
30.0%
5.2%
.266
.305
.402
.707
.366
10.4%
2012
MLB
26
562
33
75
85
2/3
30.1%
6.6%
.270
.326
.501
.827
.335
28.7%
Seen as a quad-A player by many talent evaluators, Davis was finally able to actualize the potential his
minor league numbers promised. With an extremely high HR/FB rate of 28.7%, there has to be some
regression in his HR totals. With an extremely low Contact% (70%) and SO% of 30% I don’t see any
upside in his AVG; I highly doubt he hits above the .270 he hit last year.
Ike Davis
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Mets | Position: 1B | RK: 9 (75)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
23
42
2
8
4
0/0
11.9%
21.4%
.364
.500
.636
1.136
.385
18.2%
2010
MLB
23
601
19
73
71
3/2
23.0%
12.0%
.264
.351
.440
.791
.321
15.5%
2011
MLB
24
149
7
20
25
0/0
20.8%
11.4%
.302
.383
.543
.926
.344
22.1%
2012
MLB
25
584
32
66
90
0/2
24.1%
10.4%
.227
.308
.462
.770
.246
27.6%
Davis’ low batting average was the result of an extremely low .246 BABIP and his inability to hit left
handed pitching. For his career, his slash line against lefties is .217/.281/.361. What’s more discouraging
is his walk rate has decreased for the third year in a row. However, what’s encouraging is his ground ball
rate has decreased during the past three years as well. Since he strikes out 20% of the time, the batting
average will be BABIP dependent; I believe he turns into a great fantasy sleeper; hitting .255, 29-35
home runs with 90+/90+ (RBI/runs).
Rajai Davis
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: OF | RK: 102 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
432
3
65
48
41/12
16.2%
6.7%
.305
.360
.423
.783
.361
3.9%
2010
MLB
29
561
5
66
52
50/11
13.9%
4.6%
.284
.320
.377
.697
.322
4.5%
2011
MLB
30
338
1
44
29
34/11
18.6%
4.4%
.238
.273
.350
.623
.292
1.5%
2012
MLB
31
487
8
64
43
46/13
20.9%
6.0%
.257
.309
.378
.687
.314
9.8%
Every season Davis finds his way to playing in 120 games every (on average) and provides fantasy
goodness to his fantasy owners. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize his biggest fantasy value in
his speed. Last year Davis was the fourth outfielder, but the trade for Emilio Bonifacio complicates the
pecking order for Davis to get at-bats. However, if Bonifacio becomes the everyday second baseman,
Davis will keep his status as the fourth outfielder.
Alejandro DeAza
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: White Sox | Position: OF | RK: 44 (134)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
26
32
0
7
2
2/1
12.5%
3.1%
.300
.323
.400
.723
.346
0.0%
2011
AAA
27
435
9
64
37
22/11
16.6%
7.6%
.322
.378
.494
.872
.373
16.7%
2011
MLB
27
171
4
29
23
12/5
19.9%
9.9%
.329
.400
.520
.920
.404
13.3%
2012
MLB
28
585
9
81
50
26/12
18.6%
8.0%
.281
.349
.410
.759
.339
8.0%
After an impressive half season in 2011, the White sox made De Aza their lead-off hitter in 2012. Fantasy
owners should not expect massive improvements in his 2012 season. Instead, fantasy owners should
expect 20-30 stolen bases with 5-10 home runs, 80 runs and a .275+ batting average.
David DeJesus
Bats: L | Age: 33 | Team: Cubs | Position: OF | RK: 98 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
627
13
74
71
4/9
13.9%
8.1%
.281
.347
.434
.781
.311
9.6%
2010
MLB
30
394
5
46
37
3/3
11.9%
8.6%
.318
.384
.443
.827
.355
6.2%
2011
MLB
31
506
10
60
46
4/3
17.0%
8.9%
.240
.323
.376
.699
.274
8.6%
2012
MLB
32
582
9
76
50
7/8
15.3%
10.5%
.263
.350
.403
.753
.301
7.2%
After a poor 2011, DeJesus had a nice bounce back year hitting .263 with 9 HRs and a career high walk
rate. His inability to hit lefties has made a platoon player, limiting his potential. However, if he maintains
his walk rate he should see an increase in runs because Anthony Rizzo will hit third instead of Bryan
LaHair last year. He should only be owned in the deepest of leagues.
Ian Desmond
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Nationals| Position: SS | RK: 7 (80)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
89
4
9
12
1/0
15.7%
5.6%
.280
.318
.561
.879
.292
23.5%
2010
MLB
24
574
10
59
65
17/5
19.0%
4.9%
.269
.308
.392
.700
.317
10.4%
2011
MLB
25
639
8
65
49
25/10
21.8%
5.5%
.253
.298
.358
.656
.317
7.8%
2012
MLB
26
547
25
72
73
21/6
20.7%
5.5%
.292
.335
.511
.846
.332
24.1%
Desmond has 20/20 potential which is great, but he could be a batting average risk. Before last year his
career batting average was .262, 30 points lower than the .292 average he put up last year. I don't trust
guys who strikeout more than 20% of the time to maintain an abnormally high batting averages. Also,
his contact rates were down two percentage points compared to last year, which is mainly due to lower
contract rates on balls outside the strike zone. I bet his 24% HR/FB rate regresses and he maybe hits 1215 home runs this year.
Andy Dirks
Bats: L | Age: 27 | Team: Tigers | Position: OF | RK: 66 (285)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
93
4
14
17
3/0
12.9%
3.2%
.375
.402
.648
1.050
.403
17.4%
2011
AAA
25
172
7
30
24
12/2
16.3%
7.0%
.325
.368
.522
.890
.355
18.9%
2011
MLB
25
235
7
34
28
5/2
15.3%
4.7%
.251
.296
.406
.702
.273
11.5%
2012
MLB
26
344
8
56
35
1/1
15.4%
6.7%
.322
.370
.487
.857
.365
10.7%
Dirks doesn’t have any particular tool that stands out in the field, but he gets the most out of his abilities
by grinding every at-bat. Dirks provides modest power and speed with biggest upside coming from his
AVG. With a .365 BABIP, Dirks probably will not hit .322 again, but .295 easily reachable.
Matt Dominguez
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Astros | Position: 3B | RK: 22 (264)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
21
356
12
47
55
0/1
14.0%
6.7%
.258
.312
.431
.743
.270
-
2011
MLB
21
48
0
2
2
0/0
16.7%
4.2%
.244
.292
.333
.625
.297
0.0%
2012
AAA
22
492
9
48
69
0/1
10.6%
6.9%
.257
.311
.371
.682
.271
7.0%
2012
MLB
22
113
5
14
16
0/0
15.0%
3.5%
.284
.310
.477
.787
.299
27.7%
Dominguez came over to the Astros in the Carlos Lee trade. The best thing going for him, from a fantasy
perspective, is he plays for the Astros. The Astros are going to be a bad team. They’re opening day
lineup looks like a bad Triple-A lineup so he’ll be able to make mistakes and keep his job. Also, his
defense is so good he’ll receive consistent playing time. He has the raw power to hit 15-20 HRs, but his
inability to hit right handed pitchers gives his .260 batting average ceiling.
Josh Donaldson
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Athletics | Position: 3B | RK: 27 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
348
18
52
67
3/1
22.7%
12.9%
.238
.343
.476
.819
.264
18.3%
2011
AAA
25
503
17
79
70
13/4
19.9%
10.1%
.261
.344
.439
.783
.301
-
2012
AAA
26
234
13
38
45
5/2
14.5%
9.8%
.335
.402
.598
1.000
.350
28.9%
2012
MLB
26
294
9
34
33
4/1
20.7%
4.8%
.241
.289
.398
.687
.278
14.8%
The converted catcher found himself as the starting third baseman for the A’s after Brandon Inge
suffered a season ending shoulder injury. The good: he has plus raw power, which allows his power to
turn into HRs in the Oakland Coliseum. The bad: there’s a lot of swing and miss in his swing, especially to
breaking balls away from him. If given 500 ABs he can hit 20 HRs with a .245 AVG. However, his playing
time is not assured as Scott Moore, Grant Green, Jed Lowrie and Scott Sizemore could take over the
position if he falters.
Ryan Doumit
Bats: B | Age: 32 | Team: Twins | Position: C, OF, DH | RK: 17 (304)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
304
10
31
38
4/0
16.1%
6.6%
.250
.299
.414
.713
.268
13.7%
2010
MLB
29
456
13
42
45
1/0
19.1%
9.0%
.251
.331
.406
.737
.29
13.3%
2011
MLB
30
236
8
17
30
0/1
14.8%
6.8%
.303
.353
.477
.830
.331
14.3%
2012
MLB
31
528
18
56
75
0/0
18.6%
5.5%
.275
.320
.461
.781
.306
14.1%
Is Doumit a good defensive catcher? No. Should he catching? No. Is he one of the worst receivers in the
game? Yes. Does that matter for fantasy? No way Jose. I thought it was fairly unlikely Doumit would get
more than 375 ABs, let alone 484. He had career highs in HR, RBI, and games played. His power numbers
were legit, but I have my doubts about his RBI potential. Josh Willingham had a career year last year and
could (he should) be traded by the trade deadline at the latest, thereby lowering his opportunities to
drive in runs.
Stephen Drew
Bats: L | Age: 30 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SS | RK: 24 (266)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
595
12
71
65
5/1
14.6%
8.2%
.261
.320
.428
.748
.288
7.8%
2010
MLB
27
633
15
83
61
10/5
17.1%
9.8%
.278
.352
.458
.810
.321
10.4%
2011
MLB
28
354
5
44
45
4/4
20.9%
8.5%
.252
.317
.396
.713
.313
6.3%
2012
MLB
29
327
7
38
28
1/2
23.2%
11.3%
.223
.309
.348
.657
.275
9.7%
Rather than returning to the A’s, Drew opted to signing a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. My
suspicion is he signed with the Red Sox in order to play in a better offensive environment to inflate his
numbers so he can get a long term contract after the 2013 season. There is hope for optimism he can
return to his 2010 numbers, but I’m skeptical. Even though he looked good with the A’s, he had a hard
time catching up to velocity up in the zone. This could be due to the recovery from ankle surgery or it
could be due to decline in bat speed. Either way, he’s an AL-only play.
Lucas Duda
Bats: L | Age: 27 | Team: Mets | Position: OF | RK: 67 (286)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
25
157
10
22
24
0/0
17.2%
14.6%
.302
.414
.597
1.011
.309
27.4%
2011
MLB
25
347
10
38
50
1/0
16.4%
9.5%
.292
.370
.482
.852
.326
10.0%
2012
AAA
26
107
3
12
8
0/0
19.6%
9.3%
.260
.327
.396
.723
.301
12.0%
2012
MLB
26
459
15
43
57
1/0
26.1%
11.1%
.239
.329
.389
.718
.301
15.3%
Duda was a deep sleeper in NL-only leagues for ability to provide slightly above average with a solid
batting average. Even though his power numbers are lower than expected, if he were give 600 plate
appearences would have hit 20 home runs. His biggest problem was his strikeout percentage went from
16 percent in 2011 to 26 percent in 2012. He enters the year as the Mets starting left fielder and is
expected bat fifth behind David Wright and Ike Davis so he can revert back to his 2011 form he could be
a tremendous value.
Adam Dunn
Bats: L | Age: 33 | Team: White Sox | Position: 1B, DH | RK: 29 (274)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
668
38
81
105
0/1
26.5%
17.4%
.267
.398
.529
.927
.324
29.0%
2010
MLB
30
648
38
85
103
0/1
30.7%
11.9%
.260
.356
.536
.892
.329
27.3%
2011
MLB
31
496
11
36
42
0/1
35.7%
15.1%
.159
.292
.277
.569
.240
13.4%
2012
MLB
32
649
41
87
96
2/1
34.2%
16.2%
.204
.333
.468
.801
.246
35.7%
The poster boy for the three outcome hitter, Dunn bounced back in a big way in 2012, hitting 41 HRs.
However, his strike out rate remained the same as 2011, limiting his AVG to .204. I don’t see much
optimism for resurgence with his AVG unless he reverts his approach at the plate had pre-2011. If his
AVG is equal to or less than .210 it will severely limit the fantasy owners who can draft him. Even though
he hit 41 HRs, he did that with a 35.7% HR/FB rate. His career HR/FB rate average is 22% so he’s likely to
regress to the mid-30s in terms of home run power. There are two strategies fantasy owners could
execute if they wanted Dunn: 1) punt AVG all together or 2) draft two to four high AVG guys.
Adam Eaton
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: OF | RK: 59 (198)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
A+
22
301
6
54
39
24/8
13.6%
14.0%
.332
.455
.492
.947
.379
24.0%
2011
AA
22
255
4
31
28
10/6
13.7%
11.8%
.302
.409
.429
.838
.345
22.2%
2012
AAA
23
562
7
119
45
38/10
12.1%
9.4%
.381
.456
.539
.995
.432
8.4%
2012
MLB
23
103
2
19
5
2/3
14.6%
13.6%
.259
.382
.412
.794
.294
13.4%
No one benefited the most from the Justin Upton trade than Adam Eaton. Before the trade, Eaton
looked as though he would start the year in Triple-A again, but now looks like he’ll be the starting center
fielder and is likely to lead off. He has below average power, a solid 50 hit tool, with plus speed and a
great comprehension of the strike zone. Eaton is the type of player who can put up a slash line of
.265/.360/.385 with 30-35 stolen bases. He’s currently going as the 58th outfielder, ahead of Emilio
Bonifacio and Michael Saunders, which is too high. This is the type of player who will be over hyped in
drafts, which means I probably will not own him in any leagues.
A.J. Ellis
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Dodgers | Position: C | RK: 30 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
29
128
0
6
16
0/0
14.1%
10.9%
.278
.363
.324
.687
.330
0.0%
2011
AAA
30
248
2
36
28
0/1
9.3%
20.2%
.304
.467
.418
.885
.338
-
2011
MLB
30
103
2
8
11
0/1
15.5%
13.6%
.271
.392
.376
.768
.313
10.5%
2012
MLB
31
505
13
44
52
0/0
21.2%
12.9%
.270
.373
.414
.787
.329
15.5%
The most surprising stat for Ellis last year was his 13 HRs because he never hit for power in the minors.
The most HRs he ever had in one year was 8 in Double-A (2007). His greatest asset his AVG (standard
5x5 leagues), but it’s going to be an empty AVG with limited R and RBI potential. If you play in an OBP
league Ellis is a top 10-12 catcher.
Mark Ellis
Bats: R | Age: 36 | Team: Dodgers | Position: 2B | RK: 31 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
32
410
10
52
61
10/3
13.2%
5.6%
.263
.305
.403
.708
.280
11.5%
2010
MLB
33
492
5
45
49
7/6
11.4%
8.1%
.291
.358
.381
.739
.321
5.1%
2011
MLB
34
519
7
55
41
14/5
14.5%
4.2%
.248
.288
.346
.634
.280
5.8%
2012
MLB
35
464
7
62
31
5/0
15.1%
8.6%
.258
.333
.364
.697
.296
7.2%
Ellis is solid player who doesn’t do anything exceptionally well and doesn’t hurt you at the same time.
What’s most concerning is he’s due for 1-2 DL trips every year; for the past five years Ellis has only
averaged 118 games played.
Jacoby Ellsbury
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Red Sox | Position: OF | RK: 24 (65)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
691
8
94
60
70/12
10.7%
7.1%
.301
.355
.415
.770
.328
5.8%
2010
MLB
26
83
0
10
5
7/1
10.8%
4.8%
.192
.241
.244
.485
.217
0.0%
2011
MLB
27
729
32
119
105
39/15
13.4%
7.1%
.321
.376
.552
.928
.336
20.0%
2012
MLB
28
323
4
43
26
14/3
13.3%
5.9%
.271
.313
.370
.683
.304
5.3%
Ellsbury enters 2013 in the final year of his contract with a lot to prove. After a week into the 2012
season, he injured his right shoulder in a collision at second base. After a month on the DL he provided
fantasy owners with a .271/.313/.370 slash line; a far cry from his near MVP season in 2011. The year he
had in 2011 was a career that will not be duplicated again. However, a 20/30 season is his floor if he’s
healthy for a full year.
Edwin Encarnacion
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: 1B | RK: 4 (32)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
338
13
35
39
2/1
19.8%
10.9%
.225
.320
.410
.730
.245
16.9%
2010
MLB
27
367
21
47
51
1/0
16.3%
7.9%
.244
.305
.482
.787
.235
23.9%
2011
MLB
28
530
17
70
55
8/2
14.5%
8.1%
.272
.334
.453
.787
.292
14.8%
2012
MLB
29
644
42
93
110
13/3
14.6%
13.0%
.280
.384
.557
.941
.266
24.5%
Two years removed from wrist surgery and finally healthy, Encarnacion had a career year posting 42
HRs. His walk rate increased five percentage points which was due to a better approach at the plate and
opposing teams pitching around him. Instead of hitting behind Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus, he’ll be
hitting behind of Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera in 2013; Encarnacion may be in line for an even bigger
monster fantasy year. He had a career high in his HR/FB rate (24.5%) so it’s more likely he regresses to
32-35 HRs.
Alcides Escobar
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Royals | Position: SS | RK: 13 (162)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
134
1
20
11
4/2
13.4%
3.0%
.304
.333
.368
.701
.346
3.6%
2010
MLB
23
552
4
57
41
10/4
12.7%
6.5%
.235
.288
.326
.614
.264
3.9%
2011
MLB
24
598
4
69
46
26/9
12.2%
4.2%
.254
.290
.343
.633
.285
3.6%
2012
MLB
25
648
5
68
52
35/5
15.4%
4.2%
.293
.331
.390
.721
.344
5.0%
Entering the 2012 season Escobar was seen as a glove only shortstop, but he turned in one of the best
fantasy seasons for shortstops. His primary asset is his stolen bases. His ability to steal bases is
dependent on him getting on base. His .293 AVG could be a result of a high BABIP, which could lead to a
regression to his AVG, which could lower his OBP. If his OBP decreases, his stolen base upside will be
limited. What’s encouraging is he’s hitting more doubles and line drives, which could help sustain a
higher BABIP.
Yunel Escobar
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Rays | Position: SS | RK: 23 (265)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
604
14
89
76
5/4
10.3%
9.4%
.299
.377
.436
.813
.317
11.1%
2010
MLB
27
567
4
60
35
6/2
10.1%
9.9%
.256
.337
.318
.655
.282
4.3%
2011
MLB
28
590
11
77
48
3/3
11.9%
10.3%
.290
.369
.413
.782
.316
10.4%
2012
MLB
29
608
9
58
51
5/1
11.5%
5.8%
.253
.300
.344
.644
.273
8.3%
Off the field shenanigans aside, Escobar is a solid major league player with the glove and bat. From a
fantasy perspective, he doesn’t provide any above average stats among traditional Roto categories
except for AVG. He’s projected to bat second, which is a prime position in a lineup that should be
improved with Evan Longoria back for a full year. If he does bat second, he could be in line to score 85+
runs.
Danny Espinosa
Bats: B | Age: 26 | Team: Nationals | Position: SS, 2B | RK: 14 (155)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
23
108
4
14
15
5/3
20.4%
7.4%
.295
.349
.463
.812
.338
22.2%
2010
MLB
23
112
6
16
15
0/2
26.8%
8.0%
.214
.277
.447
.724
.239
24.0%
2011
MLB
24
658
21
72
66
17/6
25.2%
8.7%
.236
.323
.414
.737
.292
17.7%
2012
MLB
25
658
17
82
56
20/6
28.7%
7.0%
.247
.315
.402
.717
.333
16.1%
Espinosa has a face that looks like he’s 32, but in fact he will only be 26 at the start of the 2013 season.
Espinosa loves to swing the bat and has a poor approach. Therefore it’s no surprise he strikes out a lot;
last year was he had the highest SO% in his career (28.7%). The scary thing is it appears Espinosa is
swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone, lowering his contact rate. His AVG could become a
bigger liability in 2013, limiting his fantasy upside. However, he provides legit 20/20 upside and that’s
hard to find. Also, he tore his left rotator cuff at the beginning of September and has decided to play
with the injury instead of getting surgery. Over the last 20 regular-season games, Espinosa batted only
.188; I’m staying away from Espinosa in every league because I have no idea how much the torn rotator
cuff will affect his play on the field.
Andre Ethier
Bats: L | Age: 32 | Team: Dodgers | Position: OF | RK: 71 (288)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
685
31
92
106
6/4
16.9%
10.5%
.272
.361
.508
.869
.289
18.4%
2010
MLB
28
585
23
71
82
2/1
17.4%
10.1%
.292
.364
.493
.857
.322
16.6%
2011
MLB
29
551
11
67
62
0/1
18.7%
10.5%
.292
.368
.421
.789
.348
9.9%
2012
MLB
30
618
20
79
89
2/2
20.1%
8.1%
.284
.351
.460
.811
.333
16.8%
Ethier is one of the poster boys that timing and opportunity is everything in life. Ethier parlayed a hot
start to the 2012 year with a five-year, $85 million contract in June. Most of his stats were accumulated
through a function of opportunity and not skill set. That’s not to say he’s a bad player; he’s solid but
nowhere close to being a star. He’s ranked 44th and 56th on ESPNs Player Rater among outfielders the
past two years so draft him as a #5 outfielder.
Prince Fielder
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Brewers | Position: 1B | RK: 2 (7)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
719
46
103
141
2/3
19.2%
15.3%
.299
.412
.602
1.014
.315
30.3%
2010
MLB
26
714
32
94
83
1/0
19.3%
16.0%
.261
.401
.471
.872
.291
23.3%
2011
MLB
27
692
38
95
120
1/1
15.3%
15.5%
.299
.415
.566
.981
.306
27.6%
2012
MLB
28
690
30
83
108
1/0
12.2%
12.3%
.313
.412
.528
.940
.321
20.1%
One number: 160; that is the average number of games Fielder has averaged over his entire career. His
power may no longer be elite, but he’s never hurt (despite his body type…he’s supposed to be
vegetarian, but he’s the only vegetarian I know whose that big. He’s definitely cheating.). His value
increases dramatically as he will have Victor Martinez hitting behind him instead of Delmon Young as he
could score 100+ runs.
Tyler Flowers
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: White Sox | Position: C | RK: 29 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
412
16
43
53
2/1
29.4%
13.3%
.220
.335
.434
.769
.284
22.9%
2011
AAA
25
270
15
36
32
2/0
31.1%
14.4%
.261
.390
.500
.890
.350
62.4%
2011
MLB
25
129
5
13
16
0/1
29.5%
10.9%
.209
.310
.409
.719
.261
15.6%
2012
MLB
26
153
7
19
13
2/1
36.6%
7.8%
.213
.296
.412
.708
.301
54.4%
With A.J. Pierzynski signing a one-year deal with Texas, Flowers becomes the starting catcher for the
White Sox. Coming through the minors there were questions about if his defense and offense would be
good enough to be a major leaguer. Flowers has worked extremely hard to become an average
defender. However, his offense has not caught up yet. I wouldn’t be shocked if hits 15 HRs.
Logan Forsythe
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Padres | Position: 2B | RK: 25 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
23
472
3
66
38
17/5
20.1%
15.9%
.253
.378
.337
.715
.327
3.3%
2011
AAA
24
218
8
41
34
8/4
22.9%
15.1%
.326
.445
.528
.973
.413
24.2%
2011
MLB
24
169
0
12
12
3/1
19.5%
7.1%
.213
.281
.287
.568
.269
0.0%
2012
MLB
25
350
6
45
26
8/2
16.3%
8.0%
.273
.343
.390
.733
.316
7.2%
Forsythe has great understanding of the plate and quick bat that provides solid gap power; if he played
in a more hitter friendly ballpark he could hit 12-15 home runs. Even though he’s a below average
runner, he stole 11+ bases the past two seasons in the minors. He’s an excellent 10/10 player you could
add to your MI slot in deep leagues for next to nothing on draft day.
Dexter Fowler
Bats: B | Age: 27 | Team: Rockies | Position: OF | RK: 42 (128)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
24
505
6
73
36
13/7
20.6%
11.3%
.260
.347
.410
.757
.328
6.6%
2011
AAA
25
114
2
17
9
2/1
21.1%
13.2%
.237
.345
.381
.726
.296
8.3%
2011
MLB
25
563
5
84
45
12/9
23.1%
12.1%
.266
.363
.432
.795
.354
4.6%
2012
MLB
26
530
13
72
53
12/5
24.2%
12.8%
.300
.389
.474
.863
.390
14.0%
Like most of the Rockies hitters, Fowler has a big discrepancy between his home and road splits. He has
the pure speed to be a 40+ SB guy, but he’s only averaged 12 the past three seasons. With Jim Tracy no
longer the manager, it’s possible he hits that ceiling. His power numbers may be misleading as 10 of the
13 HRs came at home. Also, his HR/FB rate last year was 200% higher compared to his career average.
Todd Frazier
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Reds | Position: 3B, 1B | RK: 15 (140)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
538
17
71
66
14/4
23.6%
8.4%
.258
.334
.448
.782
.318
13.3%
2011
AAA
25
359
15
47
46
17/4
22.8%
9.5%
.260
.340
.467
.807
.302
35.7%
2011
MLB
25
121
6
17
15
1/0
22.3%
5.8%
.232
.289
.438
.727
.253
35.3%
2012
MLB
26
465
19
55
67
3/2
22.2%
7.7%
.273
.331
.498
.829
.316
15.2%
Last year he flashed the tools that made him a first round pick by hitting for power and being a
legitimate run producer. When Joey Votto came off the DL, Dusty Baker for some reason favored the
rotting corpse of Scott Rolen over Frazier at the end of year and in the playoffs. Rolen is out of the
picture, which means the job is his to lose. The 20+ HR power is legit, but his AVG could fluctuate based
on BABIP because of his propensity to strike out so much.
Freddie Freeman
Bats: L | Age: 23 | Team: Braves | Position: 1B | RK: 11 (94)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
20
519
18
73
87
6/2
16.2%
8.3%
.319
.384
.521
.905
.359
17.6%
2010
MLB
20
24
1
3
1
0/0
33.3%
0.0%
.167
.167
.333
.500
.200
20.0%
2011
MLB
21
635
21
67
76
4/4
22.4%
8.3%
.282
.346
.448
.794
.339
14.7%
2012
MLB
22
620
23
91
94
2/0
20.8%
10.3%
.259
.340
.456
.796
.295
16.1%
Despite having a lower batting average, Freeman’s slugging and walk percentages increased, which tells
me he’s making the necessary adjustments to become a better hitter. His plate coverage and bat speed
points to a .300 batting average ceiling. Fantasy owners expecting 28+ home runs will be disappointed,
but 25 is certainly reasonable. His numbers could have been better if it weren’t for scratched cornea he
suffered on May 5 and bruised left index finger on June 7. Basically, he couldn’t see from May 5 to June
12. During that time he put up a slash line of .198/.292/.349 while the rest of the year he put up
.274/.399/.482, which is really good. He’s currently being drafted 72nd overall (March 17), ahead of Eric
Hosmer, Ike Davis and Anthony Rizzo, which is too high for me. If Freeman went 15 picks later he would
be a tremendous value.
David Freese
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Cardinals | Position: 3B | RK: 16 (141)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
34
1
3
7
0/0
20.6%
5.9%
.323
.353
.484
.837
.375
11.1%
2010
MLB
27
270
4
28
36
1/1
21.9%
7.8%
.296
.361
.404
.765
.376
9.1%
2011
MLB
28
363
10
41
55
1/0
20.7%
6.6%
.297
.350
.441
.791
.356
16.4%
2012
MLB
29
567
20
70
79
3/3
21.5%
10.1%
.293
.372
.467
.839
.352
23.9%
Freese finally played a full year and what did fantasy owners get? They got exactly what they paid for.
Drafted as the 13th third baseman on ESPN, he finished as the 12th best third baseman on ESPNs player
rater. He is a clear second division third baseman with limited upside and a moderate floor, which is
primarily due to his long injury history and not his skill set.
Rafael Furcal
Bats: B | Age: 35 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SS | RK: N/A (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
31
680
9
92
47
12/6
13.1%
9.0%
.269
.335
.375
.710
.302
8.3%
2010
MLB
32
428
8
66
43
22/4
14.0%
9.3%
.300
.366
.460
.826
.338
9.9%
2011
MLB
33
369
8
44
28
9/5
10.6%
7.6%
.231
.298
.348
.646
.240
12.5%
2012
MLB
34
531
5
69
49
12/4
10.7%
8.3%
.264
.325
.346
.671
.289
5.9%
Furcal’s season was cut short with a tear in his ulnar ligament. It appears he’s fully recovered from the
injury. However, he may not be available to play right away during spring training as he completes the
final stages of his rehab. Furcal has only averaged 98 games played in the last five seasons. He no longer
has the upside with his AVG or his speed, making him an NL-only play.
Mat Gamel
Bats: L | Age: 27 | Team: Brewers | Position: 1B | RK: N/A (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
359
13
54
67
3/1
17.8%
10.6%
.309
.393
.511
.904
.355
16.9%
2011
AAA
25
545
28
90
96
2/0
15.4%
8.4%
.310
.372
.540
.912
.326
51.9%
2011
MLB
25
27
0
1
2
0/0
14.8%
3.7%
.115
.148
.154
.302
.136
0.0%
2012
MLB
26
75
1
10
6
3/0
20.0%
5.3%
.246
.293
.348
.641
.296
6.2%
Gamel tore his ACL is out for the year. This is the player profile I wrote before the injury. With Corey
Hart expected to miss the first two months of the year, Gamel finally gets an opportunity to play every
day for the first time in his career. Despite his career .267 AVG (only 48 plate appearances) against left
handed pitchers, he cannot hit lefties. He has solid average power who could provide solid home run
production. However, he’s more of an NL-only play because he’ll likely be platooned against lefties so he
won’t get enough at bats to be owned in mix leagues.
Brett Gardner
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Yankees | Position: OF | RK: 30 (90)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
284
3
48
23
26/5
14.1%
9.2%
.270
.345
.379
.724
.311
5.6%
2010
MLB
26
569
5
97
47
47/9
17.8%
13.9%
.277
.383
.379
.762
.340
6.3%
2011
MLB
27
588
7
87
36
49/13
15.8%
10.2%
.259
.345
.369
.714
.303
8.9%
2012
MLB
28
37
0
7
3
2/2
18.9%
13.5%
.323
.417
.387
.804
.417
0.0%
Gardner missed most of the 2012 with inflamed tissue in his right elbow. He enters spring training with a
clean bill of health and becomes a very intriguing fantasy player. His stolen base potential is enormous;
providing the potential of winning their fantasy owners a category. If he slips in drafts he could be a
great steal. I wouldn’t pay full price for him because there other players that will provide cheap speed at
the end of drafts.
Johnny Giavotella
Bats: R | Age: 25 | Team: Royals | Position: 2B | RK: 35 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
23
503
9
67
72
9/5
11.3%
8.0%
.338
.390
.481
.871
.367
23.1%
2011
MLB
23
187
2
20
21
5/2
17.1%
3.2%
.247
.273
.376
.649
.288
4.2%
2012
AAA
24
418
10
67
71
7/1
9.6%
11.0%
.323
.404
.472
.876
.339
11.2%
2012
MLB
24
189
1
21
15
3/0
18.5%
4.2%
.238
.270
.304
.574
.290
2.8%
Giavotella, although an unspectacular prospect, had nothing left to prove in the minors, but still found
himself starting the 2012 season in Triple-A where he had a slash line of .323/.404/.472. For some
reason the Royals are still smitten with Chris Getz as their starting second baseman again. Its moves like
this that fans and the media gave Dayton Moore got a lot of flak for his trades and acquisitions this offseason. Giavotella, if given the full time gig, is a second division second baseman who can be a 10/10
hitter with a solid .270 AVG.
Paul Goldschmidt
Bats: R | Age: 25 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: 1B | RK: 10 (93)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
A+
22
599
35
102
108
5/1
26.9%
9.5%
.314
.390
.606
.996
.395
26.1%
2011
AA
23
457
30
84
94
9/3
20.1%
17.9%
.306
.435
.626
1.061
.331
61.2%
2011
MLB
23
177
8
28
26
4/0
29.9%
11.3%
.250
.333
.474
.807
.323
21.1%
2012
MLB
24
587
20
82
82
18/3
22.1%
10.2%
.286
.359
.490
.849
.340
16.7%
Most of Goldschmidt’s fantasy value came from (surprisingly) his 18 SBs. He’s a well below average
runner (30-35 on the 20-80 scale) and I can’t see him coming close to 18 again. If he doesn’t steal 18
bases, he’s a top 20 first baseman rather than a top 10 first baseman. Unless he approves upon his
platoon splits, specifically against right handed pitching, a significant increase in AVG is not likely to
happen. He has the raw power ceiling power to hit 30 HRs, but its wishful thinking for fantasy owners to
look for more than 25. Goldschmidt’s value is team dependent; he’s a great fit for teams already with a
lot of power, but he’s a poor fit if he’s on a team void of power.
Jonny Gomes
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Red Sox | Position: OF | RK: 93 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
314
20
39
51
3/1
27.1%
8.3%
.267
.338
.541
.879
.309
27.8%
2010
MLB
29
571
18
77
86
5/3
21.5%
6.8%
.266
.327
.431
.758
.311
13.5%
2011
MLB
30
372
14
41
43
7/3
28.2%
12.9%
.209
.325
.389
.714
.259
16.7%
2012
MLB
31
333
18
46
47
3/1
31.2%
13.2%
.262
.377
.491
.868
.348
28.7%
After another near 20 HR season, Gomes was rewarded with a two-year, $10 million contract with the
Red Sox. He’s turning into a three outcome player (HR, BB or SO), best suited for platoon against left
handed pitchers. Other than the deepest of mixed leagues should not be owned.
Carlos Gomez
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
349
3
51
28
14/7
20.6%
6.3%
.229
.287
.337
.624
.286
5.7%
2010
MLB
24
318
5
38
24
18/3
22.6%
5.3%
.247
.298
.357
.655
.313
11.9%
2011
MLB
25
258
8
37
24
16/2
24.8%
5.8%
.225
.276
.403
.679
.273
15.7%
2012
MLB
26
452
19
72
51
37/6
21.7%
4.4%
.260
.305
.463
.768
.296
19.2%
Every time I Carlos Gomez see play I think how much better of a fantasy player he could be if could learn
to take a walk more than every other week. If can get on base 33% of the time he could steal 65+ SBs.
One of these years he’ll luck his way into a high BABIP and achieve the .330 OBP necessary to possibly
lead the league in stolen bases. I’m not sold on he can repeat the 19 home runs he hit last year because
six of them had just enough power to leave the park. However, 10 home runs is very possible.
Adrian Gonzalez
Bats: L | Age: 31 | Team: Dodgers | Position: 1B | RK: 5 (33)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
681
40
90
99
1/1
16.0%
17.5%
.277
.407
.551
.958
.278
26.5%
2010
MLB
28
692
31
87
101
0/0
16.5%
13.4%
.298
.393
.511
.904
.322
19.6%
2011
MLB
29
715
27
108
117
1/0
16.6%
10.3%
.338
.410
.548
.958
.380
18.1%
2012
MLB
30
684
18
75
108
2/0
16.1%
6.1%
.299
.344
.463
.807
.334
12.2%
In an extremely small sample (36 games) Gonzalez hit.297/.344/.441 for the Dodgers showing the MVP
skill set was still there. It’s possible the discomfort in his surgically-repaired shoulder was the culprit for
the lack of power last year; he posted a career low HR/FB rate of 12.2%. His poor performance could be
a combination of injury and environment. If he slips to the fourth round of drafts I will gladly take the
upside. I literally do not know how to approach Gonzalez on draft day because his range of outcomes is
so vast.
Alex Gonzalez
Bats: R | Age: 36 | Team: Brewers | Position: SS, 1B | RK: 25 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
32
429
8
42
41
2/1
15.2%
4.7%
.238
.279
.355
.634
.264
7.2%
2010
MLB
33
640
23
74
88
1/2
18.4%
4.8%
.250
.294
.447
.741
.275
12.9%
2011
MLB
34
593
15
59
56
2/0
21.2%
3.7%
.241
.270
.372
.642
.285
10.7%
2012
MLB
35
89
4
8
15
1/1
16.9%
6.7%
.259
.326
.457
.783
.274
19.1%
Gonzalez will most likely enter the year as the starting first baseman for the Brewers. Gonzalez is a great
play in NL-only and 15-team mixed leagues because he plays in a great home ballpark and his middle
infield eligibility. Also, he has 15-18 home run power with a .240-260 batting average.
Carlos Gonzalez
Bats: L | Age: 27 | Team: Rockies | Position: OF | RK: 5 (9)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
317
13
53
29
16/4
22.1%
8.8%
.284
.353
.525
.878
.333
24.1%
2010
MLB
24
636
34
111
117
26/8
21.2%
6.3%
.336
.376
.598
.974
.384
30.4%
2011
MLB
25
542
26
92
92
20/5
19.4%
8.9%
.295
.363
.526
.889
.326
28.8%
2012
MLB
26
579
22
89
85
20/5
19.9%
9.7%
.303
.371
.510
.881
.352
29.3%
The cumulative stats make it seem like Gonzalez had a solid fantasy year, but there are red flags with his
game. This is the third year in a row his road splits have dropped precipitously; the road slash line for the
last three years are .260/.314/.433. His power, batting average and speed potential give him the upside
of a first round pick, but his road splits and his injury history (averaging only 529 plate appearances the
past three years) are worrisome. Last year his average ESPN ADP was 17.9, which is about the spot I’m
willing to take him.
Alex Gordon
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Royals | Position: OF | RK: 18 (50)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
189
6
28
22
5/0
22.8%
11.1%
.232
.324
.378
.702
.276
15.0%
2010
MLB
26
281
8
34
20
1/5
22.1%
12.1%
.215
.315
.355
.670
.254
12.9%
2011
MLB
27
688
23
101
87
17/8
20.2%
9.7%
.303
.376
.502
.878
.358
14.0%
2012
MLB
28
721
14
93
72
10/5
19.4%
10.1%
.294
.368
.455
.823
.356
9.5%
Even though he had a horrid first two months of the year where he hit .237/.324/.351, he still finished
the year .294/.348/.439. A breakout could certainly happen, but draft him based on getting the numbers
he’s put up the last two years. While in search for upside, consistency, especially in non-expert drafts, is
an often underrated commodity on draft day. If Gordon falls to you in the eighth, ninth round swoop
him up.
Dee Gordon
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SS | RK: 32 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
23
313
0
51
24
30/4
12.8%
5.8%
.333
.373
.410
.783
.382
-
2011
MLB
23
233
0
34
11
24/7
11.6%
3.0%
.304
.325
.362
.687
.345
0.0%
2012
AAA
24
32
0
3
1
2/1
9.4%
6.3%
.267
.313
.333
.646
.296
0.0%
2012
MLB
24
330
1
38
17
32/10
18.8%
6.1%
.228
.280
.281
.561
.281
2.7%
Gordon’s speed is elite, but his power is extremely poor. By power, I mean the ability to square up plus
velocity and not the ability to hit home runs. His lack of power was exposed by pitchers who threw
nothing but fastballs on the inner half. If he doesn’t find a way to generate more power, he’ll only be a
.220 hitter. Gordon is blocked by the trade of Hanley Ramirez so he should only be owned in keeper
leagues.
Yasmani Grandal
Bats: B | Age: 24 | Team: Padres | Position: C | RK: 23 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
A+
22
251
10
47
40
0/0
22.7%
16.3%
.296
.410
.510
.920
.359
25.6%
2011
AA
22
172
4
20
26
0/1
22.7%
7.6%
.301
.360
.474
.834
.377
-
2012
AAA
23
235
6
40
35
0/0
14.9%
15.7%
.335
.443
.521
.964
.381
12.8%
2012
MLB
23
226
8
28
36
0/0
17.3%
13.7%
.297
.394
.469
.863
.333
22.8%
Even though he was popped with a 50 game suspension for testing positive for testosterone, he’s still a
must add in two catcher mixed leagues. He’s one of the few catchers who can legitimately hit in the
middle of a lineup and hit .270-285 with 12-16 HRs and an OBP of .350-360. He may go undrafted in a lot
of leagues because of his suspension, but he’s someone worth stashing on your bench in two catcher
leagues.
Curtis Granderson
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
710
30
91
71
20/6
19.9%
10.1%
.249
.327
.453
.780
.275
17.7%
2010
MLB
29
528
24
76
67
12/2
22.0%
10.0%
.247
.324
.468
.792
.277
17.5%
2011
MLB
30
691
41
136
119
25/10
24.5%
12.3%
.262
.364
.552
.916
.295
24.5%
2012
MLB
31
684
43
102
106
10/3
28.5%
11.0%
.232
.319
.492
.811
.260
26.4%
Like in 2011, Granderson took advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee stadium, hitting 43
HRs. A career low in BABIP (.260) had a hand in suppressing his AVG, which could make him a bargain
entering into drafts. However, his SO% ballooned to 28.5%, which may limit his AVG upside to .245
instead of .260. If his AVG is limited, it will also limit his SB potential. Expecting anything more than the
high teens may be wishful thinking. During Spring Training he fractured right forearm and will be out
until at least the first week of May.
Franklin Gutierrez
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Mariners | Position: OF | RK: 91 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
629
18
85
70
16/5
19.4%
7.3%
.283
.339
.425
.764
.333
14.0%
2010
MLB
27
629
12
61
64
25/3
21.8%
7.9%
.245
.303
.363
.666
.297
8.7%
2011
MLB
28
344
1
26
19
13/2
16.3%
4.7%
.224
.261
.273
.534
.266
1.4%
2012
MLB
29
163
4
18
17
3/1
19.0%
5.5%
.260
.309
.420
.729
.302
15.4%
For the second year in a row injuries caused Gutierrez to miss a substantial amount of time, limiting him
to only 132 games the past two years. In 2011 it was a stomach malady. In 2012 it was a combination of
foot, concussion, groin and pectoral injuries. His premiere defense will allow him to keep an everyday
job, but unless he returns to pre-2011 offensive levels he’s purely an AL-only option.
Jedd Gyorko
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Padres | Position: 2B | RK: 24 (273)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
A+
22
382
18
78
74
11/3
16.8%
9.9%
0.365
0.429
0.638
1.067
0.408
-
2011
AA
22
265
7
41
40
1/0
18.9%
9.8%
0.288
0.358
0.428
0.786
0.337
17.5%
2012
AA
23
149
6
18
17
1/1
18.1%
11.4%
0.262
0.356
0.431
0.787
0.289
22.2%
2012
AAA
23
408
24
62
83
4/3
16.7%
8.3%
0.328
0.380
0.588
0.968
0.344
24.5%
Entering Spring Training Logan Forsythe was expected to be the Padres starting second baseman, but
he's currently dealing with plantar fasciitis and will be out 3-4 days. This leaves the door open for Jedd
Gyorko to be the starting second baseman. Most scouts agree Gyorko will hit for a high average, but
how much power will there be? Playing in San Diego with 540+ plate appearances, I forecast he belts 10
home runs with 35+ doubles. Don’t let the 24 home runs in Triple-A fool you as he accomplished that in
the hitter friendly confines of the PCL. If Gyorko entered the year as the starting second baseman, I’d
have him ranked in the high 20s.
Scott Hairston
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Cubs | Position: OF | RK: 94 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
464
17
50
64
11/3
17.9%
5.4%
.265
.307
.456
.763
.290
15.7%
2010
MLB
30
336
10
34
36
6/1
20.5%
9.2%
.210
.295
.346
.641
.236
12.7%
2011
MLB
31
145
7
20
24
1/1
23.4%
7.6%
.235
.303
.470
.773
.264
17.3%
2012
MLB
32
398
20
52
57
8/2
20.9%
4.8%
.263
.299
.504
.803
.287
21.5%
Hairston has a lot of swing and miss in his swing, but that didn’t stop the Cubs from giving him a two
year deal. Even though he had a .263 AVG he only had a .299 OBP, which tells me he’s going up to the
plate looking to hit bombs. He’ll be in a platoon with David DeJesus and Nate Schierholtz, but think of
Hairston as someone in the Johnny Gomes mold.
Josh Hamilton
Bats: L | Age: 32 | Team: Angels | Position: OF | RK: 16 (43)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
365
10
43
54
8/3
21.6%
6.6%
.268
.315
.426
.741
.319
11.1%
2010
MLB
29
571
32
95
100
8/1
16.6%
7.5%
.359
.411
.633
1.044
.390
21.5%
2011
MLB
30
538
25
80
94
8/1
17.3%
7.2%
.298
.346
.536
.882
.317
18.4%
2012
MLB
31
636
43
103
128
7/4
25.5%
9.4%
.285
.354
.577
.931
.320
30.0%
Even though Hamilton’s cumulative statistics looked great, upon closer inspection his season was tale of
two seasons. For the first two months of the year his slash line was .368/.428/.764 and for the rest of
the season he hit .248/.336/.496. The most troubling trend is his SO% increased eight percentage points;
in 2011 he swung at 38% of pitches out the strike zone and in 2012 that percentage ballooned to 44%,
the second highest in baseball (Delmon Young was the highest). Also, injuries will always be a concern.
In the past four years, he’s only averaged 528 plate appearances. Last year Hamilton was underrated,
going in the fourth round of drafts. This year I suspect he’ll be a top 10 pick, which is too high for me.
One last note is he’s going from one of the best offensive ballparks to one of the worst.
Ryan Hanigan
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Reds | Position: C | RK: 31 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
293
3
22
11
0/0
10.6%
12.6%
.263
.361
.331
.692
0.289
7.0%
2010
MLB
29
243
5
25
40
0/0
8.6%
13.6%
.300
.405
.429
.834
0.313
11.6%
2011
MLB
30
304
6
27
31
0/0
10.5%
11.5%
.267
.356
.357
.713
0.285
11.1%
2012
MLB
31
371
2
25
24
0/0
10.0%
11.9%
.274
.365
.338
.703
0.302
3.0%
Prior to 2012 Hanigan was a career backup catcher, but Dusty Baker decided to give him the full time job
over highly touted prospect Devin Mesoraco. His best fantasy attribute is he has an AVG doesn’t hurt
you. He should only be owned in deep leagues.
J.J. Hardy
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Orioles | Position: SS | RK: 17 (190)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
465
11
53
47
0/1
18.3%
9.2%
.229
.302
.357
.659
.260
10.1%
2010
MLB
27
375
6
44
38
1/1
14.4%
7.5%
.268
.320
.394
.714
.299
7.1%
2011
MLB
28
567
30
76
80
0/0
16.2%
5.5%
.269
.310
.491
.801
.273
20.4%
2012
MLB
29
713
22
85
68
0/0
14.9%
5.3%
.238
.282
.389
.671
.253
12.7%
In 2011 Hardy saw a career high in his HR/FB rate, which, not surprisingly, lead to a career high in HRs.
Last year Hardy came back down to earth, hitting only 22 HRs with a .238 AVG. I believe the 2012 season
is more representational of Hardy’s fantasy value than 2011. Last year he had a .620 batting average on
line drives (MLB average is .670) so if he can get a little luckier on line drives, he could be a .255+ hitter
again.
Bryce Harper
Bats: R | Age: 20 | Team: Nationals | Position: OF | RK: 7 (21)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
A
18
305
14
49
46
19/5
20.0%
14.4%
.318
.423
.554
.977
.372
30.4%
2011
AA
18
147
3
14
12
7/2
17.7%
10.2%
.256
.329
.395
.724
.294
12.5%
2012
AAA
19
84
1
8
3
1/1
16.7%
10.7%
.243
.325
.365
.690
.288
6.2%
2012
MLB
19
597
22
98
59
18/6
20.1%
9.4%
.270
.340
.477
.817
.310
19.3%
Harper had a great year, playing the entire year at the age of 19 and winning the NL Rookie of the Year.
Other than Giancarlo Stanton, Harper may have the largest raw power in baseball with an enormous
offensive ceiling, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Even the greatest players of all time who came up
in their teens, like Ken Griffey Junior, had warming up periods. He’s almost assured for a 20/20 season,
but what about 30/30? Maybe in 2014.
Corey Hart
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Brewers | Position: 1B, OF | RK: 34 (301)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
472
12
64
48
11/6
19.5%
9.1%
.260
.335
.418
.753
.305
10.7%
2010
MLB
28
614
31
91
102
7/6
22.8%
7.3%
.283
.340
.525
.865
.324
21.9%
2011
MLB
29
551
26
80
63
7/6
20.7%
9.3%
.285
.356
.510
.866
.323
22.2%
2012
MLB
30
622
30
91
83
5/0
24.3%
7.1%
.270
.334
.507
.841
.318
20.4%
Hart may miss the first two months of the season recovering from right knee surgery. The days of 20/20
were potential are no longer in play before the injury, but his power is legit. Hart now owns five seasons
with 20+ HRs, and has hit 30 or more home runs in two of the last three years. On the downside, he’s
striking out more and walking less, which could make his AVG more BABIP dependent. He’s worth a flier
in leagues with deep benches and/or DL spots. If he played a full year he would be good for at least 25
HRs with a .260 AVG; pretty good for a player taken in the middle rounds.
Chase Headley
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Padres | Position: 3B | RK: 9 (64)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
612
12
62
64
10/2
21.7%
10.1%
.262
.342
.392
.734
.325
9.6%
2010
MLB
26
674
11
77
58
17/5
20.6%
8.3%
.264
.327
.375
.702
.323
8.4%
2011
MLB
27
439
4
43
44
13/2
21.0%
11.8%
.289
.374
.399
.773
.368
4.8%
2012
MLB
28
699
31
95
115
17/6
22.5%
12.3%
.286
.376
.498
.874
.337
25.0%
Before 2012 the most home runs Headley had in any season (majors or minors) was 20, back in 2007 in
Double-A. Most of Headley’s fantasy value came from a monster second half, where he posted a .308
AVG, 23 HRs, 73 RBI and 56 runs. Petco suppresses a lot of his fantasy potential, but if he gets traded, he
has the ability to be an elite third baseman. With a 25% HR/FB rate his 31 HRs were fluky and will most
likely regress. However, can he hit 12-16 home runs? Yes. If you can draft Headley at the right price he
can provide a solid return for your fantasy team, but I’m almost certain someone will see the 31 HRs and
draft him earlier than he should go.
Jason Heyward
Bats: L | Age: 23 | Team: Braves | Position: OF | RK: 8 (22)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
AA
19
195
7
32
30
5/1
9.7%
14.4%
.352
.453
.611
1.064
.368
19.4%
2010
MLB
20
623
18
83
72
11/6
20.5%
14.6%
.277
.393
.456
.849
.335
23.2%
2011
MLB
21
454
14
50
42
9/2
20.5%
11.2%
.227
.319
.389
.708
.260
20.0%
2012
MLB
22
651
27
93
82
21/8
23.3%
8.9%
.269
.335
.479
.814
.319
20.8%
After fully recovering from a shoulder injury in 2011, Heyward rebounded nicely from a sophomore
slump, hitting 27 HRs with 21 SBs. The scary thing is he hasn’t scratched the surface of how good he can
ultimately be. His BB% dropped and his SO% increased, but that was because he became more
aggressive at the plate, looking to drive balls instead of taking walks. Heyward is the type of player I will
pay the extra buck or get him a round early because his ceiling is enormous and his floor is high.
Aaron Hicks
Bats: B | Age: 23 | Team: Twins | Position: OF | RK: 89 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
A
19
297
4
43
29
10/8
18.5%
13.5%
.251
.354
.382
.736
.304
7.5%
2010
A
20
518
8
86
49
21/11
21.6%
17.0%
.279
.400
.428
.828
.358
7.1%
2011
A+
21
528
5
79
38
17/9
20.8%
14.8%
.242
.354
.368
.722
.308
12.5%
2012
AA
22
563
13
100
61
32/11
20.6%
14.0%
.286
.384
.460
.844
.348
11.2%
Reports out of Twins camp is Aaron Hicks could start the year as their starting center fielder. This takes
all the value from deep speed sleeper Darin Mastroianni. Let’s talk about Hicks. He is an above average
defender with a plus arm and plus speed; basically he has the athletic tools to be a first-division center
fielder. However, his hit tool, which is fringe average, is the roadblock to reaching his ceiling. This is
extremely important because the hit tool will allow his above average power to play-up. The Twins
aren’t going anywhere this season and I would prefer for Hicks to begin the year in Triple-A to continue
his refinement. If he begins the year in the Majors he’ll probably hit .240 with 10 home runs and 15+
stolen bases.
Aaron Hill
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: 2B | RK: 3 (49)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
734
36
103
108
6/2
13.4%
5.7%
.286
.330
.499
.829
.288
20.3%
2010
MLB
28
580
26
70
68
2/2
14.7%
7.1%
.205
.271
.394
.665
.196
15.0%
2011
MLB
29
571
8
61
61
21/7
12.6%
6.1%
.246
.299
.356
.655
.268
5.2%
2012
MLB
30
668
26
93
85
14/5
12.9%
7.8%
.302
.360
.522
.882
.317
14.8%
Hill maintained his 2011 second half surge with the Diamondbacks by posting a 2012 slash line of
.302/.360/.522. There appears to be no outliers in his 2012 totals to suggest a dramatic regression is
coming except for his .317 BABIP, the highest it’s been since 2007. There will be a decline in AVG, but
how much? When drafting Hill be prepared for a .250 AVG and be happy if he hits .285.
Matt Holliday
Bats: R | Age: 33 | Team: Cardinals | Position: OF | RK: 14 (36)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
670
24
94
109
14/7
15.1%
10.7%
.313
.394
.515
.909
.341
18.3%
2010
MLB
30
675
28
95
103
9/5
13.8%
10.2%
.312
.390
.532
.922
.331
19.2%
2011
MLB
31
516
22
83
75
2/1
18.0%
11.6%
.296
.388
.525
.913
.330
24.2%
2012
MLB
32
688
27
95
102
4/4
19.2%
10.9%
.295
.379
.497
.876
.337
19.9%
Holliday is a consistent four category fantasy player who won’t garner a lot of “oooo’s” and “ahhh’s” in
draft rooms like a Manny Machado or Wil Myers. Holliday will allow fantasy owners the flexibility to take
chances on higher upside players during their drafts. The days of 10+ SBs are a thing of the past;
anything more than 5 SBs is gravy.
Eric Hosmer
Bats: L | Age: 23 | Team: Royals | Position: 1B | RK: 8 (74)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
20
211
13
39
35
3/1
12.8%
7.1%
.313
.365
.615
.980
.310
22.1%
2011
AAA
21
118
3
21
15
3/0
13.6%
16.1%
.439
.525
.582
1.107
.500
27.3%
2011
MLB
21
563
19
66
78
11/5
14.6%
6.0%
.293
.334
.465
.799
.314
16.6%
2012
MLB
22
598
14
65
60
16/1
15.9%
9.4%
.232
.304
.359
.663
.255
12.6%
Prior to the 2012 season every scout and publication hailed Hosmer as the next super star. It’s no
surprise the hype surrounding him grew among the fantasy community. The hype was so high he was
the 53rd player taken off the board in ESPN leagues. Hosmer’s season was very similar to Ike Davis’
season in that he started the year in the hole and he couldn’t dig his way out. That wasn’t the only
contributor to his poor season; there were off the field problems that I cannot speak about that weighed
him down. The super star ceiling is still there and during the 2013 season he takes a giant leap towards
that ceiling.
Ryan Howard
Bats: L | Age: 33 | Team: Phillies | Position: 1B | RK: 23 (183
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
703
45
105
141
8/1
26.5%
10.7%
.279
.360
.571
.931
.325
26.8%
2010
MLB
30
620
31
87
108
1/1
25.3%
9.5%
.276
.353
.505
.858
.332
23.5%
2011
MLB
31
644
33
81
116
1/0
26.7%
11.6%
.253
.346
.488
.834
.303
24.9%
2012
MLB
32
292
14
28
56
0/0
33.9%
8.6%
.219
.295
.423
.718
.287
27.4%
Having missed three months of the season due to complications to the surgery on his Achilles, Howard
provided fantasy owners “meh” production with 14 HRs and a .219 AVG. Howard looked really old the
past two seasons, which makes me think he could be this generations Mo Vaughn who had a superb
peak, but suddenly lost it. Howard can provide 22-30 HRs with a low AVG; be happy if he hits .250 and
expect .235.
Torii Hunter
Bats: R | Age: 37 | Team: Tigers | Position: OF | RK: 37 (112)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
33
506
22
74
90
18/4
18.2%
9.3%
.299
.366
.508
.874
.330
23.4%
2010
MLB
34
646
23
76
90
9/12
16.4%
9.4%
.281
.354
.464
.818
.307
18.1%
2011
MLB
35
649
23
80
82
5/7
19.3%
9.6%
.262
.336
.429
.765
.297
18.5%
2012
MLB
36
584
16
81
92
9/1
22.8%
6.5%
.313
.365
.451
.816
.389
15.6%
Hunter had another solid year hitting .313 with 16 HRs and 92 RBI and parlayed that good year into a
two-year, $26 million contract with the Tigers. I find it more than a coincidence he posts a career high
batting average while hitting between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. Playing in Detroit will give him
another opportunity to hit between two really good hitters in Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera.
However, expectations should be tempered; expect a .280 AVG with 15-20 HRs and 80+/80+.
Chris Iannetta
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Angels | Position: C | RK: 26 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
350
16
41
52
0/1
21.4%
12.3%
.228
.344
.460
.804
0.245
16.8%
2010
MLB
27
223
9
20
27
1/0
21.5%
13.5%
.197
.318
.383
.701
0.212
17.6%
2011
MLB
28
426
14
51
55
6/3
20.9%
16.4%
.238
.370
.414
.784
0.276
15.8%
2012
MLB
29
253
9
27
26
1/3
23.7%
11.5%
.240
.332
.398
.730
0.288
19.2%
Iannetta’s AVG is a fantasy liability, but his power potential gives him fantasy relevance. Last year he had
a career high in GB% (43.8%) and still managed to hit 9 HRs in 221 ABs. His power was a little fluky last
year, but if given 400 ABs he can hit 13-16 HRs. However, there are better catchers available that
provide the same power potential without the AVG drain.
Raul Ibanez
Bats: R | Age: 40 | Team: Mariners | Position: OF | RK: 96 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
37
565
34
93
93
4/0
21.1%
9.9%
.272
.347
.552
.899
.290
26.4%
2010
MLB
38
636
16
75
83
4/3
17.0%
10.7%
.275
.349
.444
.793
.311
12.5%
2011
MLB
39
575
20
65
84
2/0
18.4%
5.7%
.245
.289
.419
.708
.268
15.7%
2012
MLB
40
425
19
50
62
3/0
15.8%
8.2%
.240
.308
.453
.761
.243
20.1%
How excited must Mariners fans be to have platoon of Ibanez and Jason Bay in left field this year? All
kidding aside, Ibanez was helped out immensely from playing in Yankee Stadium; 14 of his 19 HRs were
at home. Ibanez now finds himself in the worst offensive ballpark in the league. Fantasy owners should
draft a player with higher upside.
Omar Infante
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Tigers | Position: 2B | RK: 23 (272)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
229
2
24
27
2/0
12.2%
8.3%
.305
.361
.389
.750
.339
3.3%
2010
MLB
28
506
8
65
47
7/6
12.3%
5.7%
.321
.359
.416
.775
.355
6.5%
2011
MLB
29
640
7
55
49
4/2
10.5%
5.3%
.276
.315
.382
.697
.298
5.4%
2012
MLB
30
588
12
69
53
17/3
11.1%
3.6%
.274
.300
.419
.719
.291
7.7%
This offseason the Tigers signed Torii Hunter. Why does that matter? It dramatically lowers Infante’s
fantasy potential. Last year Infante posted career highs in R, HR, RBI, and SB. He accomplished most of
those stats batting second, ahead of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. This year, Hunter is going to bat
second, moving Infante to the 8/9 spot. He’s a solid 10/10 player who could provide a little extra steals.
Maicer Izturis
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: 2B, SS, 3B | RK: 33 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
437
8
74
65
13/5
9.4%
8.0%
.300
.359
.434
.793
.313
7.8%
2010
MLB
29
238
3
27
27
7/3
11.3%
8.8%
.250
.321
.363
.684
.272
5.0%
2011
MLB
30
494
5
51
38
9/6
13.2%
6.7%
.276
.334
.388
.722
.311
4.0%
2012
MLB
31
319
2
35
20
17/2
11.9%
7.8%
.256
.320
.315
.635
.289
3.4%
Izturis agreed with a three-year, $10 million contract in the offseason. With the acquisition of Emilio
Bonifacio it’s unknown who will get the majority of at-bats. My hunch is Izturis becomes the super utility
player and Bonifacio gets the full time job. If that’s true, Izturis is an AL-only play.
Austin Jackson
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Tigers | Position: OF | RK: 20 (53)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
AAA
22
557
4
67
65
24/4
22.1%
7.2%
.300
.358
.405
.763
.389
3.1%
2010
MLB
23
675
4
103
41
27/6
25.2%
7.0%
.293
.345
.400
.745
.396
4.2%
2011
MLB
24
668
10
90
45
22/5
27.1%
8.4%
.249
.317
.374
.691
.340
8.0%
2012
MLB
25
617
16
103
66
12/9
21.7%
10.9%
.300
.377
.479
.856
.371
11.4%
What’s strange is Jackson’s stolen bases have dropped year over year while his walk rate has increased
year over year. With Torii Hunter replacing the black hole known as Omar Infante in the two hole,
Jackson could easily score 120+ runs. Even though his HR/FB was double what it was last year, his power
has the opportunity to stabilize and grow since his ground ball rate dropped five percentage points.
John Jaso
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Athletics | Position: C | RK: 15 (302)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
AAA
25
387
5
42
30
1/0
12.7%
11.9%
.266
.366
.366
.732
.300
7.0%
2010
MLB
26
404
5
57
44
4/0
9.7%
14.6%
.263
.372
.378
.750
.282
6.1%
2011
MLB
27
273
5
26
27
1/2
13.2%
9.2%
.224
.298
.354
.652
.244
8.0%
2012
MLB
28
361
10
41
50
5/0
14.1%
15.5%
.276
.394
.456
.850
.298
14.9%
Jaso rebounded in 2012 after a subpar 2011 season with a slash of .276/.394/.456. Jaso is an average
defender with excellent plate discipline. He’s likely to be platooned again against left handed pitchers,
but he’s an excellent fantasy option in two catcher leagues because he won’t hurt you in any specific
category. I wouldn’t be surprised if the A’s bat him leadoff or second because of his OBP potential. If he
does, he becomes even more intriguing because he could be in line to score 80+ runs.
Jon Jay
Bats: L | Age: 28 | Team: Cardinals | Position: OF | RK: 49 (169)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
25
191
4
31
32
13/0
11.5%
8.9%
.321
.392
.491
.883
.345
10.5%
2010
MLB
25
323
4
47
27
2/4
15.5%
7.4%
.300
.359
.422
.781
.350
6.6%
2011
MLB
26
503
10
56
37
6/7
16.1%
5.6%
.297
.344
.424
.768
.340
13.5%
2012
MLB
27
502
4
70
40
19/7
14.1%
6.8%
.305
.373
.400
.773
.355
6.7%
Even though Jon Jay missed a little more than five weeks of the season with shoulder soreness, he still
hit .305 with 19 stolen bases and 4 home runs. Jay enters the year as the starting center fielder with the
lead-off spot for him to lose. If he can stay healthy I expect 30 stolen bases, 5-10 home runs, 90+ runs
with a .290+ batting average.
Desmond Jennings
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Rays | Position: OF | RK: 53 (186)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
23
458
3
82
36
37/4
14.6%
10.3%
.278
.359
.393
.752
.323
3.9%
2011
AAA
24
397
12
68
39
17/1
19.6%
11.3%
.275
.374
.456
.830
.325
-
2011
MLB
24
287
10
44
25
20/6
20.6%
10.8%
.259
.356
.449
.805
.303
18.5%
2012
MLB
25
563
13
85
47
31/2
21.3%
8.2%
.246
.314
.388
.702
.298
12.3%
Jennings didn’t live up to the pre-season hype, only hitting .246, 13 home runs and 31 stolen bases.
Before the All-Star Break he put up a slash line of .231/.298/.353 and afterward he put up a slash line of
.258/.329/.419. The primary cause for his resurgence was he started to become more aggressive and
starting pulling the ball the more. What’s dangerous about this approach it leaves the hitter vulnerable
to balls on the outer half of the plate. Most players who try to pull outside pitches roll over on them and
become ground balls and therefore, outs. During the first half of the year Jennings hit more balls on the
outer half of the plate to the opposite field, resulting in a .233 batting average. In the second half, he
had a .202 batting average. If he doesn’t make an adjustment this year I don’t see any major
improvements coming in 2013. With the loss of a lot of power from their lineup, the Rays are going to
have to find different ways to generate runs. One way to increase runs is by stealing more bases. Last
year Jennings, with his plus-plus speed, was 31 for 33 in stolen base attempts. If he gets on base a little
more, (he has a career minor league OBP of .381) he could be a 40+ stolen base player. Also, if Evan
Longoria can stay healthy for a full year, Jennings could score 90+ runs as well. Jennings has the superior
physical tools necessary to be an elite fantasy player if he continues to make adjustments. I have visuals
to go along with this player profile; go here to check it out.
Derek Jeter
Bats: R | Age: 39 | Team: Yankees| Position: SS | RK: 15 (180)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
35
716
18
107
66
30/5
12.6%
10.1%
.334
.406
.465
.871
.368
16.4%
2010
MLB
36
739
10
111
67
18/5
14.3%
8.5%
.270
.340
.370
.710
.307
10.6%
2011
MLB
37
607
6
84
61
16/6
13.3%
7.6%
.297
.355
.388
.743
.336
7.1%
2012
MLB
38
740
15
99
58
9/4
12.2%
6.1%
.316
.362
.429
.791
.347
15.3%
Jeter’s postseason was cut short with a left ankle fracture he suffered in Game 1 of the ALCS. According
to Brian Cashman, he expects Jeter to be ready for Opening Day. For the past two seasons I’ve been
expecting drop off in his production, but it hasn’t happened yet. Considering his age and coming off
major surgery, I’m extremely skeptical. If he looks great in spring training, I may buy-in but that’s a long
shot because there’s always at least one owner who will overvalue him. With players his age, I rather be
off the bandwagon a year too early than one too late.
Chris Johnson
Bats: R | Age: 28 | Team: Braves | Position: 3B | RK: 35 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
23
0
1
1
0/0
26.1%
4.3%
.091
.130
.091
.221
.125
0.0%
2010
MLB
25
362
11
40
52
3/0
25.1%
4.1%
.308
.337
.481
.818
.387
14.3%
2011
MLB
26
405
7
32
42
2/2
24.0%
4.0%
.251
.291
.378
.669
.317
9.6%
2012
MLB
27
528
15
48
76
5/1
25.0%
5.9%
.281
.326
.451
.777
.354
13.0%
With the trade over to the Braves, Johnson is expected to be a platoon hitter against left handed hitters
only. If Johnson were to receive full playing time he should only be drafted in the deepest of leagues. He
provides fringe average power with a below average hit tool (.250 batting average).
Kelly Johnson
Bats: L | Age: 31 | Team: Rays | Position: 2B | RK: 17 (215)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
346
8
47
29
7/2
15.6%
9.2%
.224
.303
.389
.692
.247
8.7%
2010
MLB
28
671
26
93
71
13/7
22.1%
11.8%
.284
.370
.496
.866
.339
18.4%
2011
MLB
29
613
21
75
58
16/6
26.6%
9.8%
.222
.304
.413
.717
.277
15.3%
2012
MLB
30
581
16
61
55
14/2
27.4%
10.7%
.225
.313
.365
.678
.292
15.4%
His 2010 stat line appears to be a mirage based on the last two years. Johnson’s poor strike zone
awareness (27.4% K rate) will be a road block to him batting .280+ again. Despite the AVG, Johnson is
perennial 15/15 candidate who looks to rebound with the Tampa Rays. What’s most important is Ben
Zobrist will play in right field, which means Wil Myers will most likely start the year in triple-A. Joe
Maddon has said he will use Johnson in the outfield and infield, which is an added bonus. Johnson is the
perfect lottery ticket to compliment teams in deep mixed leagues.
Adam Jones
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Orioles | Position: OF | RK: 4 (8)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
519
19
83
70
10/4
17.9%
6.9%
.277
.335
.457
.792
.308
22.7%
2010
MLB
24
621
19
76
69
7/7
19.2%
3.7%
.284
.325
.442
.767
.328
14.8%
2011
MLB
25
618
25
68
83
12/4
18.3%
4.7%
.280
.319
.466
.785
.304
20.0%
2012
MLB
26
697
32
103
82
16/7
18.1%
4.9%
.287
.334
.505
.839
.313
26.6%
Jones built upon the career highs he set in 2011 by setting new career highs with 32 HRs, 16 SBs, .287
AVG, .334 OBP, and .505 SLG during the 2012 season. Even though he’s improved his fantasy viability
the last two years, expecting him to improving again is too optimistic. However, stealing 20+ SBs is
certainly a possibility. Jones is one of the safest outfielders available.
Garrett Jones
Bats: L | Age: 32 | Team: Pirates | Position: 1B, OF | RK: 20 (164)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
358
21
45
44
10/2
21.2%
11.2%
.293
.372
.567
.939
.323
23.9%
2010
MLB
29
654
21
64
86
7/3
18.8%
8.1%
.247
.306
.414
.720
.274
14.4%
2011
MLB
30
477
16
51
58
6/3
21.8%
10.1%
.243
.321
.433
.754
.283
12.8%
2012
MLB
31
515
27
68
86
2/0
20.0%
6.4%
.274
.317
.516
.833
.293
19.0%
If Jones played in a different park he could be a +30 HR player, but he plays in Pittsburgh, the second
hardest ballpark to hitting home runs. He has a huge platoon split, with a career .189 AVG against left
handed pitching. If he was platooned by the Pirates he would be a more attractive fantasy player. More
than 27 HRs isn’t going to happen again, but he’s lock for 20-25. In terms of his AVG, it’s very BABIP
driven so he could regress back to a .250 hitter.
Matt Joyce
Bats: L | Age: 28 | Team: Rays | Position: OF | RK: 68 (287)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
37
3
3
7
1/0
18.9%
8.1%
.188
.270
.500
.770
.130
50.0%
2010
MLB
25
261
10
30
40
2/2
21.1%
15.3%
.241
.360
.477
.837
.273
15.6%
2011
MLB
26
522
19
69
75
13/1
20.3%
9.4%
.277
.347
.478
.825
.317
15.6%
2012
MLB
27
462
17
55
59
4/3
22.1%
11.9%
.241
.341
.429
.770
.281
17.0%
Even though Joyce missed a little less than a month because back tightness he was able to put up decent
overall numbers. Like Johnny Gomes, Joyce is best suited for a platoon where he only hits against right
handed pitching. Other than Evan Longoria, Joyce has the most power potential (assuming Wil Myers
starts the year in Triple-A) and will certainly get a lot of ABs, assuming he can stay healthy.
Matt Kemp
Bats: R | Age: 28 | Team: Dodgers | Position: OF | RK: 3 (5)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
667
26
97
101
34/8
20.8%
7.8%
.297
.352
.490
.842
.345
17.4%
2010
MLB
25
668
28
82
89
19/15
25.4%
7.9%
.249
.310
.450
.760
.295
17.8%
2011
MLB
26
689
39
115
126
40/11
23.1%
10.7%
.324
.399
.586
.985
.380
22.9%
2012
MLB
27
449
23
74
69
9/4
22.9%
8.9%
.303
.367
.538
.905
.354
24.7%
Before 2012 Kemp was one of the most durable players in the game, playing in 399 games
consecutively. Before going on the DL with a left hamstring injury, Kemp was having an amazing season
batting .359 with 12 HRs in 34 games. After returning from the DL indefinitely, he proceeded to let down
fantasy owners by only hitting 11 HRs with a .280/.326/.461 slash line. The tools for being an elite first
round rick are still there. The biggest question is whether he’ll steal 30+ SBs again. If he doesn’t steal
bases he’ll be an overdraft in the first round. The hamstring isn’t to blame for the lack of steals last year
as he only had two SBs (34 games) before he went on the DL. I’m also extremely worried about his
ability to hit for power after having off-season left shoulder surgery to fix a torn labrum.
Howard Kendrick
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Angels | Position: 2B | RK: 11 (137)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
400
10
61
61
11/4
17.8%
5.0%
.291
.334
.444
.778
.338
12.5%
2010
MLB
26
658
10
67
75
14/4
14.3%
4.3%
.279
.313
.407
.720
.313
7.3%
2011
MLB
27
583
18
86
63
14/6
20.4%
5.7%
.285
.338
.464
.802
.338
16.1%
2012
MLB
28
594
8
57
67
14/6
19.4%
4.9%
.287
.325
.400
.725
.347
9.0%
Based on Kendrick’s 2011 season, fantasy owners envisioned a 20/20 a season for 2012. However, like
most things in life, he failed to reach those expectations. Kendrick’s 2011 power appear to be a fluke
rather than a trend. Kendrick is the type of player I love because he’s so consistent. When you draft him
you know exactly what you’re getting.
Jeff Keppinger
Bats: R | Age: 33 | Team: White Sox | Position: 2B, 1B, 3B | RK: 18 (216)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
344
7
35
29
0/2
9.6%
7.8%
.256
.320
.387
.707
.266
9.7%
2010
MLB
30
575
6
62
59
4/1
6.3%
8.9%
.288
.351
.393
.744
.298
5.1%
2011
MLB
31
399
6
39
35
0/1
6.0%
3.0%
.277
.300
.377
.677
.280
6.7%
2012
MLB
32
418
9
46
40
1/0
7.4%
5.7%
.325
.367
.439
.806
.332
11.1%
Even though Keppinger broke his leg in November, the White Sox gave him a three-year, $12 million
dollar contract. Prior to last year, he was a career .281 hitter. However, last year his .325 AVG greatly
benefited from a high .332 BABIP. On the positive side, he’s leaving one of the worst offensive ballparks
(Tampa Bay) to one of the best hitter’s ballparks, which could make him a sneaky play for 12+ HRs and
90+ runs.
Ian Kinsler
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Rangers | Position: 2B | RK: 4 (56)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
640
31
101
86
31/5
12.0%
9.2%
.253
.327
.488
.815
.241
16.9%
2010
MLB
28
460
9
73
45
15/5
12.4%
12.2%
.286
.382
.412
.794
.313
7.8%
2011
MLB
29
723
32
121
77
30/4
9.8%
12.3%
.255
.355
.477
.832
.243
15.7%
2012
MLB
30
731
19
105
72
21/9
12.3%
8.2%
.256
.326
.423
.749
.270
10.8%
Despite playing the most games he’s ever played in his career, he only finished 5th on ESPNs Player Rater
among second basemen. He has 30/30 upside and plays a relatively weak position so it’s understandable
for fantasy owners to take him 31st overall, but there a lot of red flags. First, his home-road splits are
skewed heavily towards playing in Arlington (table below). If he continues to be a <.227 hitter on the
road I don’t see him hitting .280 again. Second, Lance Berkman is replacing Josh Hamilton in the lineup.
No matter how good Berkman is, he’s not going to provide the production Hamilton provided.
Therefore, his run totals are likely to decrease, especially if his OBP is below .330 again. Kinsler is a
player you draft and leave him in your lineup regardless of the matchup (this excludes H2H leagues).
There are two scenarios, although unlikely, I envision myself drafting Kinsler: 1) If I draft three “safe”
players with my first three picks or 2) I go with high upside, high risk players with my first three picks.
Home
Away
AB
820
846
R
180
119
H
246
192
HR
34
26
RBI
106
88
SB
41
25
CS
12
6
AVG
.300
.227
OBP
.398
.302
SLG
.506
.377
OPS
.904
.679
Jason Kipnis
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Indians | Position: 2B | RK: 5 (68)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
23
355
10
63
43
7/1
17.2%
8.7%
.311
.383
.502
.885
.358
11.3%
2011
AAA
24
400
12
65
55
12/1
18.0%
11.0%
.280
.362
.484
.846
.318
-
2011
MLB
24
150
7
24
19
5/0
22.7%
7.3%
.272
.333
.507
.840
.313
25.9%
2012
MLB
25
672
14
86
76
31/7
16.2%
10.0%
.257
.335
.379
.714
.291
10.8%
Kipnis’ fantasy value last year relied heavily on his 31 stolen bases. Contrary to his stolen base total,
Kipnis has average speed, maybe a tick above if the wind is behind him. He was thrown out 7 times,
giving him an 81.6% stolen base success rate. If he only stole 20 bases, he would have been the tenth
rated second baseman instead of the third best. He has a good understanding of the strike zone and has
a compact swing that will allow him to make more solid contact. I wouldn’t be surprised if in two years I
have Kipnis ranked as my number one second baseman. However, he still has a long way to go before he
reaches that ceiling. Most of his fantasy value came in the first half of the season; 79% of his HRs and
65% of his SBs all came in the first half. During the second half of the season the league made
adjustments against him and he struggled; posting a slash line of .233/.322/.328.
Paul Konerko
Bats: R | Age: 37 | Team: White Sox | Position: 1B, DH | RK: 16 (111)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
33
621
28
75
88
1/0
14.3%
9.3%
.277
.353
.489
.842
.282
17.0%
2010
MLB
34
631
39
89
111
0/1
17.4%
11.4%
.312
.393
.584
.977
.326
24.4%
2011
MLB
35
639
31
69
105
1/1
13.9%
12.1%
.300
.388
.517
.905
.304
21.3%
2012
MLB
36
598
26
66
75
0/0
13.9%
9.4%
.298
.371
.486
.857
.312
19.8%
For the first time in three seasons Konerko posted an OPS less than .900. His low ranking is not a
function of declining skill set, but more of a concern of the player who bats in front of him in the order:
Adam Dunn. Dunn is a three outcome player; he either walks, strikes out or hits a home run. A player
like Dunn limits Konerko’s ability to drive in runs. Among all players with at least 300 at-bats, Konerko
ranked 60th in plate appearances with runners on base, one spot ahead of Jeff Francouer. I’ve had
Konerko every year for the past three seasons, but this year he won’t be on any of my teams because
the upside is no longer there.
Jason Kubel
Bats: L | Age: 30 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: OF | RK: 54 (187)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
578
28
73
103
1/1
18.3%
9.7%
.300
.369
.539
.908
.327
18.9%
2010
MLB
28
582
21
68
92
0/1
19.9%
9.6%
.249
.323
.427
.750
.280
13.4%
2011
MLB
29
401
12
37
58
1/1
21.4%
8.0%
.273
.332
.434
.766
.326
10.7%
2012
MLB
30
571
30
75
90
1/1
26.4%
10.0%
.253
.327
.506
.833
.296
19.9%
In his debut season with the Diamondbacks Kubel hit the most home runs in his career last year (30). It’s
easy to write off the power to an inflated HR/FB rate of 20%, but he’s shown power every year he’s been
healthy. What’s troubling is he struck out more than he ever has (26.4% of the time) before. It’s no
surprise his batting average was slightly above .250. With the departure he is expected to bat clean-up
against right handed pitchers. His platoon splits, .234 AVG the past three seasons, against lefties is
troublesome. If you’re looking for cheap power, he could fill the void.
Adam LaRoche
Bats: L | Age: 33 | Team: Nationals | Position: 1B | RK: 12 (102)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
629
25
78
83
2/2
22.6%
11.0%
.277
.355
.488
.843
.328
15.6%
2010
MLB
30
615
25
75
100
0/1
28.0%
7.8%
.261
.320
.468
.788
.330
18.3%
2011
MLB
31
177
3
15
15
1/0
20.9%
14.1%
.172
.288
.258
.546
.205
8.8%
2012
MLB
32
647
33
76
100
1/1
21.3%
10.4%
.271
.343
.510
.853
.298
21.8%
Prior to the 2011 season LaRoche was the fantasy version of an old Toyota; not sexy, consistent and
predictable. However, a shoulder injury put him out for 75% of the season. In 2012, he rewarded fantasy
owners with career highs in home runs. His 21.8% HR/FB rate should come back down to his career
average of 18%, but that will only take away couple of home runs. He’s expected to bat cleanup so
another year of 25 home runs, 95+ RBI with a .265+ batting average is almost as good as money in the
bank.
Brett Lawrie
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: 3B | RK: 12 (116)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
20
609
8
90
63
30/13
19.4%
7.7%
.285
.345
.451
.796
.349
5.4%
2011
AAA
21
329
18
64
61
13/2
16.1%
7.9%
.353
.415
.661
1.076
.383
41.2%
2011
MLB
21
171
9
26
25
7/1
18.1%
9.4%
.293
.373
.580
.953
.318
20.4%
2012
MLB
22
536
11
73
48
13/8
16.0%
6.2%
.273
.324
.405
.729
.311
12.4%
Lawrie was one of the most hyped players entering the 2012 season, having an average draft position of
49. Basically, Lawrie owners learned that a sample size of 171 plate appearances isn’t the best indicator
of future performance. Since his 2012 season was so below expectations, there may be an opportunity
to buy low. He’s a pure hitter with above average power; he also has the speed to steal more than 20
bases. His ultimate ceiling is a 30/30 player, but most players never come close to reaching their ceiling;
realistically he’s a 15/15 player with .285 AVG.
Adam Lind
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: 1B | RK: 28 (270)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
654
35
93
114
1/1
16.8%
8.9%
.305
.370
.562
.932
.323
23.3%
2010
MLB
26
613
23
57
72
0/0
23.5%
6.2%
.237
.287
.425
.712
.277
15.9%
2011
MLB
27
542
26
56
87
1/1
19.7%
5.9%
.251
.295
.439
.734
.265
20.6%
2012
MLB
28
353
11
28
45
0/0
17.3%
8.2%
.255
.314
.414
.728
.282
14.9%
It’s been three seasons since his breakout season with 35 HRs 114 RBI and a .305 AVG. The first half of
the 2012 year could not have gone any worse with a .227/.328/.394 slash line. He performed so poorly
he was sent down to Triple-A to find his bat again. However a .220 BABIP heavily contributed to his poor
first half performance. After getting called up from the minors all Lind did was hit, posting a slash line
of.301/.374/.447 in 123 ABs. He can’t hit lefties, but he can still mash right handed pitching. Lind is
expected to be the starting DH for one of the best offenses (on paper) and is entering the last year of his
contract; technically the Blue Jays hold an option for the 2014 season for $7 million. Is he draftable in a
10-team league? No. 12-team league? Maybe, if there’s a deep bench. 15-team leagues? Yes, he’s worth
a flyer because he can provide 20-25 HRs with an AVG that would hurt you that much.
Stephen Lombardozzi
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Nationals | Position: 2B, 3B, OF | RK: 37 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
21
118
5
19
11
4/2
12.7%
10.2%
.295
.373
.524
.897
.306
14.3%
2011
AA
22
291
4
40
23
16/3
13.1%
6.2%
.309
.366
.454
.820
.348
7.8%
2011
AAA
22
325
4
46
29
14/5
12.3%
6.5%
.310
.354
.408
.762
.344
10.0%
2012
MLB
23
416
3
40
27
5/3
11.1%
4.6%
.273
.317
.354
.671
.304
3.6%
Lombardozzi is Washington’s super utility player, playing in the infield and outfield. He has a short
compact swing that will allow him to hit at least .270 consistently. Unless there’s an injury he won’t find
enough plate appearances to become fantasy relevant except in NL-only leagues.
Evan Longoria
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Rays | Position: 3B, DH | RK: 3 (16)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
671
33
100
113
9/0
20.9%
10.7%
.281
.364
.526
.890
.313
20.7%
2010
MLB
24
661
22
96
104
15/5
18.8%
10.9%
.294
.372
.507
.879
.336
13.4%
2011
MLB
25
574
31
78
99
3/2
16.2%
13.9%
.244
.355
.495
.850
.239
21.1%
2012
MLB
26
312
17
39
55
2/3
19.6%
10.6%
.289
.369
.527
.896
.313
23.6%
Even though Longoria missed half the season with a hamstring injury, he hit .289 with 17 home runs and
55 RBI. This is the second year in a row where he’s missed substantial amount of time due to injury. Last
year it was a left hamstring. 2011 it was an oblique and Morton’s neuroma. Most baseball people would
agree the Tampa Rays are a smart organization. The six-year $100 million contract extension this
offseason, shows they’re not worried about his ability to stay healthy. Fantasy owners expecting 10+ SBs
will be disappointed. He has the upside to be an elite fantasy option, but has never done it before.
Jed Lowrie
Bats: B | Age: 29 | Team: Athletics | Position: SS | RK: 21 (256)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
76
2
5
11
0/0
26.3%
7.9%
.147
.211
.265
.476
.167
7.4%
2010
MLB
26
197
9
31
24
1/1
12.7%
12.7%
.287
.381
.526
.907
.292
12.7%
2011
MLB
27
341
6
40
36
1/1
17.6%
6.7%
.252
.303
.382
.685
.289
5.7%
2012
MLB
28
387
16
43
42
2/0
16.8%
11.1%
.244
.331
.438
.769
.257
13.4%
Lowrie’s biggest hurdle has been his health. In his major league career he’s never played in more than
100 games. Last year, he missed two months of the season because of a freak injury suffered at a
collision at second base. Contrary to what the A’s are saying, Lowrie instantly becomes the starting
shortstop and leaves the newly acquired Hiroyuki Nakajima, whose arm is more suited for second
base, as either the starting second baseman or the utility infielder. The A’s do not trade a solid package
of three prospects for a bench player and a middle reliever. If Lowrie can play a full year, and that’s a big
if, he could hit 20+ home runs. He’s the ultimate lottery ticket for fantasy owners on draft day.
Jonathan Lucroy
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Brewers | Position: C | RK: 9 (167)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
83
2
8
11
0/0
16.9%
3.6%
.238
.265
.363
.628
.266
13.3%
2010
MLB
24
297
4
24
26
4/2
14.8%
6.1%
.253
.300
.329
.629
.287
6.1%
2011
MLB
25
468
12
45
59
2/1
21.2%
6.2%
.265
.313
.391
.704
.317
13.2%
2012
MLB
26
346
12
46
58
4/1
12.7%
6.4%
.320
.368
.513
.881
.338
14.8%
Lucroy has a really good approach at the plate; hardly swinging at pitches out of the zone; his SO% went
from 21.2% to 12.7% in 2012. His swing s short and compact which gives him the ability to hit for power;
it’s more doubles power than HR power. I would be surprised if he belts more than 16 HRs this year. I
doubt he’ll hit .320 again, but he should hit .285. Most importantly, hopefully he has chauffeurs carry his
luggage for him during the season.
Ryan Ludwick
Bats: R | Age: 34 | Team: Reds | Position: OF | RK: 55 (194)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
539
22
63
97
4/2
19.7%
7.6%
.265
.329
.447
.776
.296
15.8%
2010
MLB
31
551
17
63
69
0/4
22.0%
8.7%
.251
.325
.418
.743
.297
13.7%
2011
MLB
32
553
13
56
75
1/1
22.4%
9.2%
.237
.310
.363
.673
.287
9.6%
2012
MLB
33
472
26
53
80
0/1
20.6%
8.9%
.275
.346
.531
.877
.299
22.4%
After first full year with the Reds, Ludwick went on to hit more HRs (26) since 2008. This power surge
came from a change in his swing. When he played for the Padres he changed his swing to be more pull
heavy. He kept the swing and reaped the rewards. He’s slotted to bat fourth between Joey Votto and Jay
Bruce. If he can stay healthy he can be a tremendous value in the middle rounds.
Manny Machado
Bats: R | Age: 21 | Team: Orioles | Position: 3B | RK: 17 (161)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
A
18
170
6
24
24
3/1
14.7%
13.5%
.276
.376
.483
.859
.296
18.8%
2011
A+
18
260
5
24
26
8/5
18.5%
8.5%
.245
.308
.384
.692
.286
8.9%
2012
AA
19
459
11
60
59
13/4
15.3%
10.5%
.266
.352
.438
.790
.297
12.5%
2012
MLB
19
202
7
24
26
2/0
18.8%
4.5%
.262
.294
.445
.739
.293
17.5%
Machado more than held his own after getting called up from Double-A to the big leagues, hitting .262
with 7 HRs. I’d like to invoke the names of two highly touted rookies who performed well in their brief
call-ups and were overrated in fantasy drafts the following year: Brett Lawrie and Desmond Jennings. It’s
extremely rare for rookies to not have growing pains and have immediate success. Machado’s HR ceiling
is 25-30, but he’s a long way from reaching his true potential; expect 15 HRs with a .260 AVG, anything
more is gravy.
Nick Markakis
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Orioles | Position: OF | RK: 72 (289)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
711
18
94
101
6/2
13.8%
7.9%
.293
.347
.453
.800
.317
10.4%
2010
MLB
26
709
12
79
60
7/2
13.1%
10.3%
.297
.370
.436
.806
.331
7.4%
2011
MLB
27
716
15
72
73
12/3
10.5%
8.7%
.284
.351
.406
.757
.300
8.6%
2012
MLB
28
471
13
59
54
1/1
10.8%
8.9%
.298
.363
.471
.834
.310
12.6%
Markakis’ season was marred with injuries, suffering a broken left thumb in the middle of September
and a broken right wrist suffered at the end of May. The breakout potential he flashed in 2008-09 will
never actualize. Instead, he’s a mediocre fantasy player who won’t hurt or help you in any specific
category.
Starling Marte
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Pirates | Position: OF | RK: 73 (290)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
A+
21
253
0
41
33
22/8
23.3%
4.7%
.315
.386
.432
.818
.424
-
2011
AA
22
572
12
91
50
24/12
17.5%
3.8%
.332
.370
.500
.870
.390
17.2%
2012
AAA
23
431
12
64
62
21/12
21.1%
6.5%
.286
.347
.500
.847
.344
15.2%
2012
MLB
23
182
5
18
17
12/5
27.5%
4.4%
.257
.300
.437
.737
.333
22.7%
There’s a wide gap where Marte’s career will end up taking him. He could be a perennial all-star or
fourth outfielder. Fantasy owners, in general, focus on the dream of how good a player could become. If
everything clicks he could be a 20/20 player with a .280+ AVG. Marte is a player you’ll likely be able to
find at the end of the drafts. He’s worth the gamble even if he’s sitting on your bench. The Pirates are
going to give him every opportunity to see if the dream can become a reality.
Leonys Martin
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Rangers | Position: OF | RK: 88 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
23
192
0
27
17
9/2
12.5%
5.7%
.263
.316
.314
.630
.303
-
2011
MLB
23
8
0
2
0
0/0
12.5%
0.0%
.375
.375
.500
.875
.429
-
2012
AAA
24
260
12
48
42
10/9
15.0%
9.2%
.359
.422
.610
1.032
.392
20.7%
2012
MLB
24
52
0
6
6
3/0
23.1%
7.7%
.174
.235
.370
.605
.229
0.0%
Two years ago he signed a five-year, $15.5 million contract with the Rangers in the hope of becoming
the center fielder of the future. This year Martin gets his opportunity. He has really good tools and
defensive chops, which allow the bat to play even through slumps. Even though he hasn’t shown his
speed in the minors, he has enough speed to steal 25+ SBs, enough power to hit 10 HRs with plenty of
doubles. Even if he wins center field job, he’ll likely be on the good side of a platoon with Craig Gentry.
Russell Martin
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Pirates | Position: C | RK: 25 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
588
7
63
53
11/6
13.6%
11.7%
.250
.352
.329
.681
.284
7.2%
2010
MLB
27
387
5
45
26
6/2
15.8%
12.4%
.248
.347
.332
.679
.287
8.1%
2011
MLB
28
476
18
57
65
8/2
17.0%
10.5%
.237
.324
.408
.732
.252
19.0%
2012
MLB
29
485
21
50
53
6/1
19.6%
10.9%
.211
.311
.403
.714
.222
23.3%
Martin had a career high in HRs (21), but also hit a career low .211 for the Yankees last year. The low
AVG was primarily due to having the lowest BABIP in baseball with .222 and the fifth lowest since 2000.
One could argue he hit the ball with less authority, but how do you explain the career high in HRs and
HR/FB rate? I don’t see the power sustaining with the Pirates because PNC Park is the worst hitters
ballpark for right handed power in the majors. The days of Martin stealing 12+ SBs are gone; be happy
with 4-6.
Victor Martinez
Bats: B | Age: 34 | Team: Tigers | Position: C, DH | RK: 10 (188)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2008
MLB
29
294
2
30
35
0/0
10.9%
8.2%
.278
.337
.365
.702
.306
3.2%
2009
MLB
30
672
23
88
108
1/0
11.0%
11.2%
.303
.381
.480
.861
.312
15.4%
2010
MLB
31
538
20
64
79
1/0
9.7%
7.4%
.302
.351
.493
.844
.303
13.3%
2011
MLB
32
595
12
76
103
1/0
8.6%
7.7%
.330
.380
.470
.850
.343
9.2%
When healthy, Victor Martinez has been incredibly consistent hitting over .300 the past three seasons
he’s played. He missed all of 2012 with a torn left ACL so it’s important to see how well he performs in
spring training to make sure he’s fully recovered from his injury. His 12 HRs in 2011 was a little troubling,
but he’s expected to bath fifth behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder so he’ll have a lot of run
producing opportunities. Please check your hosting site to make sure he qualifies for catcher. CBS for
example only counts him as a DH, which makes no sense.
Darin Mastroianni
Bats: L | Age: 27 | Team: Twins | Position: OF | RK: 84 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AA
25
198
1
29
13
14/3
12.1%
11.1%
.254
.342
.355
.697
.286
-
2011
AAA
25
364
2
63
23
20/7
14.8%
11.0%
.276
.358
.389
.747
.327
4.3%
2012
AAA
26
85
0
10
11
10/1
16.5%
5.9%
.346
.393
.423
.816
.422
0.0%
2012
MLB
26
186
3
22
17
21/3
24.2%
9.7%
.252
.328
.350
.678
.328
10.3%
Do I see Mastroianni as super elite player? No. Do I see him as an above average player? No. So what is
he? Mastroianni is a speedy center fielder with a great understanding for the strike zone and has little
power. Last year in a small 77 game sample, he put up a slash line of .252/.328/.350 with 21 stolen
bases. After the Minnesota Twins traded away all their center field options, Mastroianni will get the first
opportunity to be the starting center fielder and could be in line for leadoff duties. He struck out 24% of
the time in the majors, which limits his batting average ceiling. Like closers, his fantasy value is a
function of opportunity, but if he plays a full year he can provide 40+ stolen bases, which is really good
for a player whose not getting drafted at all.
Joe Mauer
Bats: L | Age: 30 | Team: Twins | Position: C | RK: 4 (108)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
606
28
94
96
4/1
10.4%
12.5%
.365
.444
.587
1.031
.373
20.9%
2010
MLB
27
584
9
88
75
1/4
9.1%
11.1%
.327
.402
.469
.871
.348
7.3%
2011
MLB
28
333
3
38
30
0/0
11.4%
9.6%
.287
.360
.368
.728
.319
5.1%
2012
MLB
29
641
10
81
85
8/4
13.7%
14.0%
.319
.416
.446
.862
.364
9.4%
His career BABIP is .345, which means he’s very likely to hit .300+ in 2013. That’s extremely important
because it gives fantasy owners more flexibility while drafting. For example, drafting Mauer will allow
fantasy owners to take lower AVG players like Jay Bruce and not take a big hit on their team’s batting
average. With his injury concerns I don’t see Mauer spending any more than 80-90 games behind the
plate, which is great. I have more confidence that he will stay healthy playing fewer games behind the
plate. In terms of the power department, be happy with 10; 28 HRs are not coming back.
Justin Maxwell
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Astros | Position: OF | RK: 86 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
26
272
6
34
21
16/7
27.6%
12.9%
.287
.386
.439
.825
0.395
12.6%
2010
MLB
26
131
3
16
12
5/1
32.8%
19.1%
.144
.305
.288
.593
0.200
14.3%
2011
AAA
27
204
16
36
35
11/2
35.3%
12.7%
.260
.358
.588
.946
0.337
53.4%
2012
MLB
28
352
18
46
53
9/4
32.4%
9.1%
.229
.304
.460
.764
0.292
28.6%
Maxwell, a second division starter has a lot of secondary skills such as speed, but his swing has a lot of
swing and miss. He has 15/20 upside, but will be lucky to eclipse a .250 AVG. Also, he’s projected to bat
fifth, which will provide a lot of RBI opportunities.
Cameron Maybin
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Padres | Position: OF | RK: 48 (168)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
199
4
30
13
1/3
25.6%
8.5%
.250
.318
.409
.727
.328
16.1%
2010
MLB
23
322
8
46
28
9/2
28.6%
7.5%
.234
.302
.361
.663
.313
16.3%
2011
MLB
24
568
9
82
40
40/8
22.0%
7.7%
.264
.323
.393
.716
.331
9.8%
2012
MLB
25
561
8
67
45
26/7
19.6%
7.8%
.243
.306
.349
.655
.293
9.5%
It’s hard to believe Cameron Maybin is only 26 years old and already has more than 1,500 at-bats. Last
year a lot of fantasy owners, including myself, felt Maybin was primed for breakout given his five tool
ability and the 2011 slash line of .264/.323/.393. Instead of taking a step forward, he took a step
backwards hitting .243 with only 26 stolen bases. His strong second half (.283/.333/.402) gives me
optimism he could be a top 30 outfielder, but at the age of 26 how much longer can fantasy owners wait
for the dream to come true?
Brian McCann
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Braves | Position: C | RK: 12 (193)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
551
21
63
94
4/1
15.1%
8.9%
.281
.349
.486
.835
.297
15.1%
2010
MLB
26
566
21
63
77
5/2
17.3%
13.1%
.269
.375
.453
.828
.297
16.8%
2011
MLB
27
527
24
51
71
3/2
16.9%
10.8%
.270
.351
.466
.817
.287
17.9%
2012
MLB
28
487
20
44
67
3/0
15.6%
9.0%
.230
.300
.399
.699
.234
15.7%
I had no idea McCann was 29 years old. If I were to guess I would say at least 31. Even though he’s 29
there’s a lot of miles on those legs; he became a full time player in 2006 and has averaged 135 games a
season. Last year was his lowest total of games played (121) in the past six years. In October he had
surgery on his right shoulder, which could have dramatically impacted his offense. There’s a theory that
drafting players coming off a subpar year is an excellent way to find value on draft day. The safe
assessment is to say he’s begun his decline, but all his numbers were the same as previous years except
for the BABIP. However, his SO%, LD%, HR/FB all remained same. Even if you believe he returns to form,
the biggest concern I have is the drop in the batting order. Historically, he’s batted between 3-5, but
towards the year they were playing him in the 6-7 spot. The Braves know more about McCann more
than anyone else. If they believed in his bat and thought 2012 was a fluke then why drop him in the
lineup?
Andrew McCutchen
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Pirates | Position: OF | RK: 6 (12)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
493
12
74
54
22/5
16.8%
11.0%
.286
.365
.471
.836
.327
10.6%
2010
MLB
23
653
16
94
56
33/10
13.6%
10.7%
.286
.365
.449
.814
.311
10.9%
2011
MLB
24
678
23
87
89
23/10
18.6%
13.1%
.259
.364
.456
.820
.291
14.2%
2012
MLB
25
673
31
107
96
20/12
19.6%
10.4%
.327
.400
.553
.953
.375
22.8%
McCutchen finally had his break out season, hitting 31 HRs and putting up a slash line of .327/.400/.553
along with 20 SBs. What’s most impressive is he was able to put up these numbers in PNC Park, the
hardest ballpark in the league for right handed power. However, there are some red flags. First, his
batting average; last year he had a .327 batting average, which was aided with a .375 BABIP. Before last
year his career batting average was .276. Second, most of his fantasy value came in the first half of the
season. 58% of his home runs and 70% of his stolen bases came in the first of the season. Also, his slash
line in the first half was .362/.414/.625 compared to .289/.385/.475 in the second half of the year. Third,
his stolen bases have decreased year over year for the past three years, reaching a career low of 20 last
year. He’s currently being drafted 5th/6th overall, which is too high. I bet at the end of the year he
provides similar value to Adam Jones, whose going 15-16 picks later.
Devin Mesoraco
Bats: R | Age: 25 | Team: Reds | Position: C | RK: 33 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
22
212
13
42
31
1/0
17.5%
8.5%
.294
.368
.594
.962
.307
22.4%
2010
AAA
22
58
3
5
13
0/1
24.1%
10.3%
.231
.310
.462
.772
.257
30.0%
2011
MLB
23
53
2
5
6
0/0
18.9%
5.7%
.180
.226
.360
.586
.184
18.2%
2012
MLB
24
184
5
17
14
1/1
17.9%
9.2%
.212
.288
.352
.640
.234
14.7%
If Mesoraco played for a different manager (I should say team, but we all know Dusty Baker is the
reason why he didn’t play) he would be a big sleeper. After being regaled as a top prospect in the Reds
system by scouts, the Reds decided to give the lion share of the workload to Ryan Hanigan. If given the
full time job, he has the potential to bat .280 and smash 20-25 HRs. If he’s a backup, he’s an NL-only
play.
Will Middlebrooks
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Red Sox | Position: 3B | RK: 13 (124)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AA
22
397
18
54
80
6/0
23.9%
5.3%
.302
.345
.520
.865
.363
-
2011
AAA
22
60
2
4
8
3/1
30.0%
5.0%
.161
.200
.268
.468
.189
22.2%
2012
AAA
23
100
9
18
27
3/1
18.0%
7.0%
.333
.380
.677
1.057
.333
39.1%
2012
MLB
23
286
15
34
54
4/1
24.5%
4.5%
.288
.325
.509
.834
.335
26.8%
A fractured wrist in early August put a stop to a promising rookie debut for Middlebrooks. Some fantasy
owners may quickly write off Middlebrooks because he can’t take a walk. Who cares? Taking walks
doesn’t equate to being a good hitter. Is he an impatient hitter? Yes. Even though he strikes out a lot, he
enough contact despite poor plate discipline. Does he have 30 HR power? If he does, he’s never shown it
in the minors. His .288 AVG appears to be BABIP driven so a regression is likely to happen.
Yadier Molina
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Molina | Position: C| RK: 2 (84)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
544
6
45
54
9/3
7.2%
9.2%
.293
.366
.383
.749
.309
5.9%
2010
MLB
27
521
6
34
62
8/4
9.8%
8.1%
.262
.329
.342
.671
.281
6.1%
2011
MLB
28
518
14
55
65
4/5
8.5%
6.4%
.305
.349
.465
.814
.311
11.3%
2012
MLB
29
563
22
65
76
12/3
9.8%
8.0%
.315
.373
.501
.874
.316
16.4%
Last year was a career year for Molina; reaching career highs in HRs, RBI, R, AVG and SBs. Don’t overlook
the steals. The average number a steals for catchers last year was 2.59. The 6-12 SBs he provides may
not look like a lot when compared to hitters overall, but every little bit adds up and it provides more
flexibility with their roster construction. His HR/FB rate was 16.4% which is five percentage points higher
than his next highest rate of 11.3% (in 2011). It’s easy to say the power numbers probably will not
repeat, but his power numbers have increased year-over-year. I think we’re seeing the evolution of
Molina’s game as he grows into his power. Also, he’s going four rounds later than Buster Posey; I much
rather have Molina.
Jesus Montero
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Mariners | Position: C, DH | RK: 13 (222)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
20
504
21
66
75
0/0
18.1%
9.1%
.289
.356
.517
.873
.323
18.3%
2011
AAA
21
463
18
52
67
0/0
21.2%
7.8%
.288
.348
.467
.815
.336
26.4%
2011
MLB
21
69
4
9
12
0/0
24.6%
10.1%
.328
.406
.590
.996
.400
30.8%
2012
MLB
22
553
15
46
62
0/2
17.9%
5.2%
.260
.298
.386
.684
.292
12.3%
It was almost a consensus among scouts that Montero’s bat was so good he could legitimately hit in the
middle of the order. So why didn’t he hit as well as he was projected? The home/road splits suggest
Safeco was the biggest culprit. He hit .295 on the road compared to only .227 at home. One argument
for an improvement in 2013 is the fences are moving in this year, but Colin Wyers wrote a great article
that moving in the fences will only have a slight impact on the number of runs scored. I still believe
Montero’s bat has tremendous upside, but with the trade of John Jaso, Montero becomes the everyday
catcher, which hurts his fantasy value. Usually it takes longer for catching prospects to develop there bat
because catchers spend more time preparing for each individual game than any other position player.
Miguel Montero
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: C | RK: 6 (125)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
470
16
61
59
1/2
16.6%
8.1%
.294
.355
.478
.833
.327
15.7%
2010
MLB
26
331
9
36
43
0/1
21.5%
8.8%
.266
.332
.438
.770
.318
11.4%
2011
MLB
27
553
18
65
86
1/1
17.5%
8.5%
.282
.351
.469
.820
.317
14.8%
2012
MLB
28
573
15
65
88
0/0
22.7%
12.7%
.286
.391
.438
.829
.362
13.6%
Montero has a solid above average offensive skill set for a catcher. He provides solid AVG, HRs, and RBIs.
Even though he has the skill set, he benefits from where he hits in the lineup. Since he routinely hits
fourth and fifth in the lineup, he’s almost guaranteed to bat with runners on base. In fact, he had the
fourth most plate appearances with runners on base (behind Buster Posey, Joe Mauer and Carlos
Santana) among catchers. His low ceiling and low floor, makes him as sexy as the Zima Guy, but on draft
day you’ll draft a player who will provide solid fantasy production.
Mitch Moreland
Bats: L | Age: 27 | Team: Rangers | Position: 1B | RK: 26 (268)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
412
12
52
65
2/1
15.3%
11.4%
.289
.375
.484
.859
.321
12.2%
2010
MLB
24
173
9
20
25
3/1
20.8%
14.5%
.255
.364
.469
.833
.275
25.7%
2011
MLB
25
512
16
60
51
2/2
18.0%
7.6%
.259
.320
.414
.734
.290
13.1%
2012
MLB
26
357
15
41
50
1/1
19.9%
6.4%
.275
.321
.468
.789
.306
19.1%
Much has yet to be seen how the Texas Rangers will move forward with their 25 man roster, but as of
now Moreland is the starting first baseman. There’s been a lot of talk about Ian Kinsler or Mike Olt
playing first base, but after watching his 40 plate appearances, it’s clear Olt needs more seasoning
before he’s ready to be in the big leagues. Even if Moreland is given the full time job, he’s best used as a
platoon player against righties. He has average power that plays up because he plays in Arlington, but
he’s nothing more than an AL-only play.
Justin Morneau
Bats: L | Age: 32 | Team: Twins | Position: 1B, DH | RK: 17 (156)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
590
30
85
100
0/0
14.6%
12.2%
.274
.363
.516
.879
.273
20.6%
2010
MLB
29
348
18
53
56
0/0
17.8%
14.4%
.345
.437
.618
1.055
.385
21.2%
2011
MLB
30
288
4
19
30
0/0
15.3%
6.6%
.227
.285
.333
.618
.257
5.7%
2012
MLB
31
570
19
63
77
1/0
17.9%
8.6%
.267
.333
.440
.773
.294
14.3%
Morneau made it through the 2012 season with a slash line of .267/.333/.440 with 19 home runs in 570
plate appearances. He’s reportedly training this off-season with no restrictions; even being able to play
for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic. Unless the price drops significantly, Morneau is a player
I’m not going to have on my team because of the concern for injury is far too high and frankly, I don’t
want to deal with it. If he looks great in the WBC, he could be a big fantasy sleeper.
Kendrys Morales
Bats: B | Age: 30 | Team: Mariners | Position: 1B, DH | RK: 99 (163)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2008
MLB
25
66
3
7
8
0/1
10.6%
6.1%
.213
.273
.393
.666
.196
17.6%
2009
MLB
26
622
34
86
108
3/7
18.8%
7.4%
.306
.355
.569
.924
.329
20.4%
2010
MLB
27
211
11
29
39
0/1
14.7%
5.7%
.290
.346
.487
.833
.296
24.5%
2012
MLB
29
522
22
61
73
0/1
22.2%
5.9%
.273
.320
.467
.787
.315
23.9%
Despite being out of the game for two years, Morales performed fairly well hitting .273 with 22 HRs.
Since he was in an overcrowded line up in Anaheim, he was traded to the Mariners for Jason Vargas.
Safeco is the worst ballpark in the AL for power. So needless to say his new team is not going to increase
his fantasy value. He’s projected to be the everyday first baseman and bat fourth so he should be able to
accumulate a lot of RBIs and runs.
Logan Morrison
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Marlins | Position: OF | RK: 27 (270)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
22
293
6
36
45
1/2
11.9%
16.4%
.307
.431
.487
.918
.340
9.8%
2010
MLB
22
287
2
43
18
0/1
17.8%
14.3%
.283
.390
.447
.837
.351
4.2%
2011
MLB
23
525
23
54
72
2/1
18.9%
10.3%
.247
.330
.468
.798
.265
23.5%
2012
MLB
24
334
11
30
36
1/0
17.4%
9.3%
.230
.308
.399
.707
.248
13.3%
It’s shame his social prowess has over shadowed his on the field play. Let’s start with the bad. Morrison
is a bad left fielder; he takes bad routes to ball and at times appears to be wearing a full suit of armour
as he goes after balls. The past two seasons have been marred with injuries, but they were likely the
result of playing outfield. In 2010 he showed he can hit for average. In 2011 he showed he can hit for
power. In 2012 he showed could no longer hit for average or power. His poor performance could have
been due to a right knee inflammation. This year he’s expected to play exclusively at first base in the
hope he can stay healthy and most importantly, bat in the middle of the Marlins lineup. He has the raw
power, approach, and swing to hit 25-30 home runs if he can play a full year.
Michael Morse
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Mariners | Position: 1B, OF | RK: 63 (205)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
55
3
4
10
0/0
29.1%
5.5%
.250
.291
.481
.772
.303
33.3%
2010
MLB
28
293
15
36
41
0/1
21.8%
7.5%
.289
.352
.519
.871
.330
23.5%
2011
MLB
29
575
31
73
95
2/3
21.9%
6.3%
.303
.360
.550
.910
.344
25.0%
2012
MLB
30
430
18
53
62
0/1
22.6%
3.7%
.291
.321
.470
.791
.339
27.6%
Morse gets the opportunity to play for the team he had made his big league debut with seven years ago.
His season was marred by back and hand issues throughout the year and still was able to post solid
power numbers. For three years in a row his BABIP has been above .330 so it’s hard to say he’ll regress
significantly. He’ll get the opportunity to play every day at first base and DH; also he’s projected to bat
fourth, which means he’ll have plenty of run producing opportunities. 30+ HRs is no longer in the cards,
but somewhere in the 20-25 range is certainly possible.
Brandon Moss
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Athletics | Position: 1B, OF | RK: 33 (271)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
26
556
22
73
96
12/7
21.2%
7.6%
.266
.329
.470
.799
.305
15.1%
2011
AAA
27
506
23
66
80
4/6
25.1%
12.3%
.275
.368
.509
.877
.334
-
2012
AAA
28
224
15
32
33
4/0
17.9%
9.8%
.286
.371
.582
.953
.289
20.3%
2012
MLB
28
296
21
48
52
1/1
30.4%
8.8%
.291
.358
.596
.954
.359
29.6%
Last year Moss reminded me a lot of Matt Stairs with his clutch hitting and his walk-offs. Like Stairs, he
was picked up out of the trash heap and became a pivotal part to the A’s winning games. He struck out
30.4% of the time, hit .291 and had a HR/FB rate of 29.6%. All three of those numbers scream
regression. I don’t believe he will repeat the numbers he put up in 2012, but based on the moves the A’s
made this off-season they do believe.
Mike Moustakas
Bats: L | Age: 24 | Team: Royals | Position: 3B | RK: 14 (138)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
21
236
15
36
48
2/0
10.6%
3.4%
.293
.318
.564
.882
.276
19.2%
2011
AAA
22
250
10
38
44
1/1
17.6%
7.6%
.287
.347
.498
.845
.314
34.4%
2011
MLB
22
365
5
26
30
2/0
14.0%
6.0%
.263
.309
.367
.676
.296
7.0%
2012
MLB
23
614
20
69
73
5/2
20.2%
6.4%
.242
.296
.412
.708
.274
13.2%
Moustakas struggled the second half of the year, hitting .211 with only 5 HRs. This is very common for
young players as the league made adjustments to him. Now it’s his turn to make further adjustments.
He has the raw tools to be an All-Star so if the proper adjustments are made he can be a solid fantasy
third baseman. I like his chances of making those adjustments because after his first call-up he was
clearly making adjustments, adjusting to exploding breaking stuff from big league pitchers.
Daniel Murphy
Bats: L | Age: 28 | Team: Mets | Position: 2B | RK: 13 (142)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2008
MLB
23
151
2
24
17
0/2
18.5%
11.9%
.313
.397
.473
.870
.382
7.2%
2009
MLB
24
556
12
60
63
4/2
12.4%
6.8%
.266
.313
.427
.740
.284
8.4%
2011
MLB
26
423
6
49
49
5/5
9.9%
5.7%
.320
.362
.448
.810
.345
7.0%
2012
MLB
27
612
6
62
65
10/2
13.4%
5.9%
.291
.332
.403
.735
.329
5.3%
Murphy is currently going 16th among second basemen, right after Omar Infante. After missing the 201011 seasons due to injury, Murphy showed he was fully healthy, playing in 156 games last year. His
greatest fantasy asset is his .290+ batting average potential. If he hits second in the lineup, in front of
David Wright and Ike Davis, he could provide 85+ runs. Do not under estimate the batting average and
runs categories, the two most overlooked offensive statistics in drafts. He’ll most likely start the season
the DL with an intercostal strain, but I’m going to target him in every draft.
David Murphy
Bats: L | Age: 31 | Team: Rangers | Position: OF | RK: 60 (204)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
493
17
61
57
9/4
21.5%
9.9%
.269
.338
.447
.785
.311
16.2%
2010
MLB
28
467
12
54
65
14/2
15.2%
9.6%
.291
.358
.449
.807
.324
11.7%
2011
MLB
29
440
11
46
46
11/6
13.9%
7.5%
.275
.328
.401
.729
.299
12.8%
2012
MLB
30
521
15
65
61
10/5
14.2%
10.4%
.304
.380
.479
.859
.333
13.5%
It looks as though Murphy is going enter 2013 as the Rangers starting left fielder. Despite being the
fourth outfielder in the past few years, Murphy always found a way to get 400+ ABs and produce 10/10
production with a .280 AVG. If he’s given 550+ ABs his ceiling is a 20/20 player with a 15/15 floor.
Wil Myers
Bats: L | Age: 22 | Team: Rays | Position: OF | RK: 81 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
A+
19
247
4
28
38
2/3
15.8%
15.0%
.346
.455
.512
.967
.414
6.8%
2011
AA
20
416
8
50
49
9/2
20.9%
12.5%
.254
.353
.393
.746
.312
18.0%
2012
AA
21
152
13
32
30
4/1
27.6%
10.5%
.343
.414
.731
1.145
.413
34.2%
2012
AAA
21
439
24
66
79
2/2
22.3%
10.3%
.304
.378
.554
.932
.349
26.2%
I’ve gone back and forth on the fantasy viability of Wil Myers for the 2013 season. He’s currently going in
the 24th round which could seem too high because he’s currently in Triple-A. However, I bet he’ll be in
the Majors after the first two weeks of the season. First of all, they Rays offense stinks; they have Luke
Scott and Matt Joyce batting in the middle of their order. Winning the division could come down to one
or two wins. Therefore, giving Myers’ at-bats to Scott over Myers could cost them a game or two. I used
to believe the Rays would hold him back two months to avoid the Super 2 status, but the Rays have
always been more concerned with service time. The MLB season is 183 days and in order to officially
accrue a year of service time requires a player to be on the roster 172+ days. If a player plays less than
that, even if its 171 games, it doesn’t count as a full year. Remember what the Rays did with Evan
Longoria? They brought him up a day or after the 172 deadline and gave him a long term deal. I bet this
is what will happen with Myers. I’d like to thank The Baseball Show with Rany & Joe for giving me this
perspective.
Hiroyuki Nakajima
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Athletics | Position: SS | RK: 26 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
JPPL
26
648
22
100
92
20/12
17.2%
11.6%
.309
.398
.493
.891
-
--
2010
JPPL
27
579
20
82
93
15/5
16.8%
9.0%
.314
.385
.511
.896
-
-
2011
JPPL
28
633
16
80
100
21/2
14.7%
7.0%
.297
.354
.433
.787
-
-
2012
JPPL
29
567
13
69
74
7/6
13.4%
9.2%
.311
.382
.451
.833
-
-
After missing out on resigning on Stephen Drew the A’s quickly signed Nakajima to a two-year $6.5
million dollar contract. Obviously I haven’t seen him play yet because it’s early January, but from what
I’ve read he has an Ichiro type of inside out swing that’s conducive for making a lot of contact with little
power potential. The A’s are saying Nakajima will be the opening day shortstop, but I don’t believe it.
The newly acquired Jed Lowrie is the better defender and has more pop, which fits more with the A’s
current offensive strategy of having hitters with high slugging percentages. If given 550 ABs Nakajima
will hit an empty .275 with maybe 10-15 SBs.
Mike Napoli
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Red Sox | Position: C, 1B, DH | RK: 19 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
432
20
60
56
3/3
23.8%
9.3%
.272
.350
.492
.842
.321
20.6%
2010
MLB
28
510
26
60
68
4/2
26.9%
8.2%
.238
.316
.468
.784
.279
21.6%
2011
MLB
29
432
30
72
75
4/2
19.7%
13.4%
.320
.414
.631
1.045
.344
28.8%
2012
MLB
30
417
24
53
56
1/0
30.0%
13.4%
.227
.343
.469
.812
.273
27.9%
Originally the Boston Red Sox inked Napoli to a three-year, $39 million dollar contract this offseason, but
was later voided and became a one-year $5 million dollar contract. The reason? It was revealed he has a
degenerative condition that could threaten his career long term. Even before this news became public I
didn’t like Napoli as a fantasy option. The most worrisome about his 2012 season was his 30% strikeout
rate. Napoli was always a high strikeout hitter, but it was clear his bat dropped a little last year;
hopefully this isn’t an indication of a precipitous decline in bat speed. Napoli is the kind of player
someone in your draft is going to reach for, thinking he can return to his 2011 form. Let them take him
and wait for a better option.
Chris Nelson
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Rockies | Position: 2B, 3B | RK: 29 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
25
315
11
52
65
3/3
15.2%
5.4%
.329
.366
.547
.913
.357
19.6%
2011
MLB
25
189
4
20
16
3/1
18.5%
3.7%
.250
.280
.383
.663
.289
10.5%
2012
AAA
26
54
0
12
8
1/1
22.2%
3.7%
.294
.333
.412
.745
.385
0.0%
2012
MLB
26
377
9
45
53
2/1
22.3%
7.2%
.301
.352
.458
.810
.374
17.0%
If Nelson didn’t play for the Rockies he would have zero fantasy value. However, he does call Colorado
his home. He has a little power and speed. He is a perfect stream hitter in H2H leagues when he’s
playing in Colorado, but other than that, he shouldn’t be owned.
Derek Norris
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Athletics | Position: C | RK: 34 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
A+
21
399
12
67
49
6/3
23.6%
22.3%
.235
.423
.419
.842
.302
11.3%
2011
AA
22
423
20
75
46
13/4
27.7%
18.2%
.210
.367
.446
.813
.251
26.7%
2012
AAA
23
246
9
39
38
5/1
16.7%
8.5%
.271
.329
.477
.806
.287
14.8%
2012
MLB
23
232
7
19
34
5/1
28.4%
9.1%
.201
.276
.349
.625
.255
21.9%
If you’re looking for cheap power, Norris could fill that void. Despite being an AVG liability, he has above
average raw power (20-25 HR) if he were given 475 ABs. With the trade for John Jaso, Norris appears to
be a platoon hitter against left handed pitchers, severely limiting his fantasy upside. Unless he gets
consistent playing time, he’s not worth owning except for an AL-only league.
Eduardo Nunez
Bats: R | Age: 25 | Team: Yankees| Position: SS, 3B | RK: 29 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
23
53
1
12
7
5/0
3.8%
5.7%
.280
.321
.360
.681
.277
11.1%
2011
MLB
24
338
5
38
30
22/6
10.9%
6.5%
.265
.313
.385
.698
.287
9.6%
2012
AAA
25
172
2
18
16
16/3
16.3%
4.1%
.227
.256
.288
.544
.259
6.2%
2012
MLB
25
100
1
14
11
11/2
12.0%
6.0%
.292
.330
.393
.723
.313
5.3%
Nunez could be another David Murphy, a player no one expects to get 400 ABs but finds a way to get
them. His biggest fantasy asset is his speed as he could provide 30+ SBs with full playing time. Playing in
Yankee Stadium helps play up his power ceiling to about ten home runs. With a lot of question marks
about Jeter health entering into the season Nunez could provide cheap steals with a little pop.
Miguel Olivo
Bats: R | Age: 34 | Team: Mariners | Position: C, DH | RK: 28 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
416
23
51
65
5/2
30.3%
4.6%
.249
.292
.490
.782
.306
29.1%
2010
MLB
31
427
14
55
58
7/4
27.4%
6.3%
.269
.315
.449
.764
.346
17.3%
2011
MLB
32
507
19
54
62
6/5
27.6%
3.9%
.224
.253
.388
.641
.270
15.8%
2012
MLB
33
323
12
27
29
3/6
26.3%
2.2%
.222
.239
.381
.620
.266
18.8%
Olivo’s approach is less than ideal as he has an all-or-nothing swing, causing him to strikeout too much.
Even with his approach, he continues to provide power. His two lowest BABIP years have come when he
started playing his home games at Safeco, which implies there isn’t a lot of hope his AVG will increase
significantly.
David Ortiz
Bats: L | Age: 37 | Team: Red Sox | Position: DH | RK: 32 (279)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
33
627
28
77
99
0/2
21.4%
11.8%
.238
.332
.462
.794
.262
16.3%
2010
MLB
34
606
32
86
102
0/1
23.9%
13.5%
.270
.370
.529
.899
.313
24.5%
2011
MLB
35
605
29
84
96
1/1
13.7%
12.9%
.309
.398
.554
.952
.321
19.6%
2012
MLB
36
383
23
65
60
0/1
13.3%
14.6%
.318
.415
.611
1.026
.316
24.7%
I’ll be honest; I left Ortiz for dead after the 2009 season, leaving him off my draft board entirely. For the
past three seasons he’s proved me wrong, consistently putting up 30 HR seasons with 100 RBIs. His 2012
season was cut in half due to an Achilles injury. Unless there are no significant setbacks, it looks as if
Ortiz will be ready to start the season. The injury has me worried because he’s a power hitter and
therefore, relies on planting his feet into the ground to drive his hips through the zone. If he even loses a
step his power may handcuffed. I don’t want him on my team this year. I’ve been wrong on Ortiz before
and hopefully, I’m wrong again.
Jordan Pacheco
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Rockies | Position: 3B, 1B | RK: 36 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
25
411
3
57
50
2/2
11.7%
7.3%
.278
.343
.377
.720
.308
4.1%
2011
MLB
25
88
2
5
14
0/0
10.2%
3.4%
.286
.318
.369
.687
.301
16.7%
2012
AAA
26
74
3
10
10
1/0
6.8%
4.1%
.433
.479
.627
1.106
.441
25.1%
2012
MLB
26
505
5
51
54
7/2
12.1%
4.4%
.309
.341
.421
.762
.344
4.3%
A few years ago the Rockies converted Pacheco to catcher, but converted him back to third base. He is a
second division starter with an above average hit tool with zero power. He’s a NL only play and could be
useful in H2H leagues when he plays at home.
Angel Pagan
Bats: B | Age: 31 | Team: Giants | Position: OF | RK: 45 (135)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
376
6
54
32
14/7
14.9%
6.6%
.306
.350
.487
.837
.349
7.6%
2010
MLB
28
633
11
80
69
37/9
15.3%
7.0%
.290
.340
.425
.765
.331
7.2%
2011
MLB
29
532
7
68
56
32/7
11.7%
8.3%
.262
.322
.372
.694
.285
4.9%
2012
MLB
30
659
8
95
56
29/7
14.7%
7.3%
.288
.338
.440
.778
.329
5.7%
Pagan picked a hell of a time to have a bounce back year, cashing in with a four-year, $40 million
contract this offseason. Most of his value comes from stealing bases and I don’t see any signs of
regression. His AVG isn’t a clear candidate to drop because of his speed. A lot of times players who
become starters in their late 20s can have the wheels fall off at any time because they didn’t have the
tools to be an above average player to begin with.
Chris Parmelee
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Twins | Position: OF | RK: 87 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AA
23
610
13
76
83
0/1
15.4%
11.1%
.287
.366
.436
.802
.322
12.1%
2011
MLB
23
88
4
8
14
0/0
14.8%
13.6%
.355
.443
.592
1.035
.390
16.0%
2012
AAA
24
282
17
45
49
1/1
18.4%
18.1%
.338
.457
.645
1.102
.373
22.4%
2012
MLB
24
210
5
18
19
0/0
24.8%
6.2%
.229
.290
.380
.670
.287
9.4%
Entering the 2013 season it looks as though that Parmelee, a former first round back in 2006, will get the
opportunity to play every day. He split time between the majors and Triple-A, where all he did was hit,
putting up a slash line of .338/.457/.645 with 17 HRs. It’s easy to dismiss him as a Quad-A player, but he
has the tools to provide 20 HRs with a solid average. Parmelee is worth a flier in deep mixed leagues.
Gerardo Parra
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: OF | RK: 101 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
491
5
59
60
5/7
18.1%
5.1%
.290
.324
.404
.728
.346
5.2%
2010
MLB
23
393
3
31
30
1/0
19.3%
5.9%
.261
.308
.371
.679
.322
4.2%
2011
MLB
24
493
8
55
46
15/1
16.6%
8.7%
.292
.357
.427
.784
.342
8.2%
2012
MLB
25
430
7
58
36
15/9
17.9%
7.7%
.273
.335
.392
.727
.323
9.7%
The 2011 gold glove winner found himself without a starting job entering the 2012 season after the
signing of Jason Kubel. Contrary to statiscal record, the Diamondbacks do not want to give him 550+
ABs. If he was given those ABs, he could hit 10 HRs with 20 SBs. Parra should only be owned in NL-only
leagues.
Dustin Pedroia
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Red Sox | Position: 2B | RK: 2 (24)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
714
15
115
72
20/8
6.3%
10.4%
.296
.371
.447
.818
.297
7.2%
2010
MLB
26
351
12
53
41
9/1
10.8%
10.5%
.288
.367
.493
.860
.291
13.3%
2011
MLB
27
731
21
102
91
26/8
11.6%
11.8%
.307
.387
.474
.861
.325
13.0%
2012
MLB
28
623
15
81
65
20/6
9.6%
7.7%
.290
.347
.449
.796
.300
10.1%
Pedoria had a down year (by his standards) last year. Pedoria has been so good fantasy owners expect
excellence from Pedoria every year. During the 2012 season he was hampered by multiple injuries to his
right thumb. It got so bad he was placed on the DL on July 3. Before going on the DL his slash line was
.266/.323/.400, but after he came off the DL his slash line was .318/.371/.508, indicating the injuries
were behind him. As long as Pedoria can stay healthy he should have a bounce back year.
Carlos Pena
Bats: L | Age: 35 | Team: Astros | Position: 1B | RK: 41 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
31
570
39
91
100
3/3
28.6%
15.3%
.227
.356
.537
.893
.250
34.5%
2010
MLB
32
582
28
64
84
5/1
27.1%
14.9%
.196
.325
.407
.732
.222
28.6%
2011
MLB
33
606
28
72
80
2/2
26.6%
16.7%
.225
.357
.462
.819
.267
22.9%
2012
MLB
34
600
19
72
61
2/3
30.3%
14.5%
.197
.330
.354
.684
.264
18.8%
Pena signed a one-year, $2.9 million contract to be the Astros DH/1B. In an OBP leagues, Pena is an
above average player, but in batting average leagues he’s a black hole that sucks in team batting
averages, and is never seen again. This is three years in a row Pena has failed to eclipse 30 HRs and now
that he’s 35 fantasy owners have to hope he can hit 25.
Hunter Pence
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Giants | Position: OF | RK: 51 (175)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
647
25
76
72
14/11
16.8%
9.0%
.282
.346
.472
.818
.308
19.5%
2010
MLB
27
658
25
93
91
18/9
16.0%
6.2%
.282
.325
.461
.786
.304
18.8%
2011
MLB
28
668
22
84
97
8/2
18.6%
8.4%
.314
.370
.502
.872
.361
19.6%
2012
MLB
29
688
24
87
104
5/2
21.1%
8.1%
.253
.319
.425
.744
.290
18.1%
Hunter Pence has been amazingly consistent the past five years; during the past five seasons he’s
averaged 24 home runs, 84 runs, 89 RBI, 11 stolen bases with a .280 batting average. That stat line
sounds like he should be a top outfielder, but remember, previous history has no effect on a player’s
present value. There are two main reasons why this year Pence regresses: 1) other than Pittsburgh, San
Francisco is the worst ballpark for right handed power and 2) his strikeout percentage has increased
year over year the past three seasons; he ended 2012 striking out 21% of the time. Also, there’s no
question his extremely poor performance in the playoffs didn’t provide hope he’ll improve his strike out
percentage. However, he’ll bat fifth in the lineup, which will provide him a lot of RBI opportunities, but
his home runs and batting average are surely going to dip.
Jhonny Peralta
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Tigers | Position: SS | RK: 18 (191)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
645
11
57
83
0/2
20.8%
7.9%
.254
.316
.375
.691
.309
9.6%
2010
MLB
28
615
15
60
81
1/0
16.7%
8.6%
.249
.311
.392
.703
.275
9.4%
2011
MLB
29
576
21
68
86
0/2
16.5%
6.9%
.299
.345
.478
.823
.325
13.5%
2012
MLB
30
585
13
58
63
1/2
17.9%
8.4%
.239
.305
.384
.689
.275
8.9%
I was shocked to learn Peralta will only be 31 at the end of the 2013 season because it seems he’s been
in the league forever. Peralta is another unsexy player who provides solid fantasy value at a bargain on
draft day; providing 15 HRs with 80 RBI potential. Even though he only hit .239, which was primarily due
to a .275 BABIP, there’s optimism he can get back to hitting .250 again.
Salvador Perez
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Royals | Position: C | RK: 8 (143)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AA
21
309
9
35
43
0/1
9.7%
5.2%
.283
.329
.427
.756
.290
21.4%
2011
AAA
21
49
1
5
10
0/0
12.2%
0.0%
.333
.347
.500
.847
.366
-
2011
MLB
21
158
3
20
21
0/0
12.7%
4.4%
.331
.361
.473
.834
.362
9.2%
2012
MLB
22
305
11
38
39
0/0
8.9%
3.9%
.301
.328
.471
.799
.299
15.5%
In a limited number of plate appearances Perez put up solid fantasy numbers, hitting for average and
power. Last year was the second year in a row he’s put up solid numbers, albeit in small sample sizes,
and he is still not talked about in the main stream media. I believe part of this is due to the small, team
friendly five-year, $7 million contract he signed a year ago. Many times the value of a player is derived
from the price and if the price is low it’s only natural to automatically dismiss it as lower quality.
However, Perez is a solid contact hitter with gap power. Every scouting report I’ve read says he’ll have
below average power, so there may not be 20 HR upside. Perez will not bat .331 again, but it’s very
possible he will be a .290-.300 hitter with a power ceiling of 18 HRs.
Brandon Phillips
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: Reds| Position: 2B | RK: 7 (79)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
644
20
78
98
25/9
11.6%
6.8%
.276
.329
.447
.776
.284
14.4%
2010
MLB
29
687
18
100
59
16/12
12.1%
6.7%
.275
.332
.430
.762
.293
12.3%
2011
MLB
30
674
18
94
82
14/9
12.6%
6.5%
.300
.353
.457
.810
.322
11.8%
2012
MLB
31
623
18
86
77
15/2
12.7%
4.5%
.281
.321
.429
.750
.298
14.4%
Phillips has been a consistent five tool fantasy player his entire career. Besides the five tools, he
provides safety and durability. Even though the 20+ SBs and HRs are no longer there, he’s a safe bet for
15/15 with solid numbers everywhere else. He’s currently being taken as the sixth second baseman (76th
overall), which is about the right spot for him.
Juan Pierre
Bats: L | Age: 35 | Team: Marlins | Position: OF | RK: 78 (300)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
31
425
0
57
31
30/12
6.4%
6.4%
.308
.365
.392
.757
.331
0.0%
2010
MLB
32
734
1
96
47
68/18
6.4%
6.1%
.275
.341
.316
.657
.294
0.9%
2011
MLB
33
711
2
80
50
27/17
5.8%
6.0%
.279
.329
.327
.656
.294
1.6%
2012
MLB
34
439
1
59
25
37/7
6.2%
5.2%
.307
.351
.371
.722
.327
1.6%
If you’re desperate for SBs at the end of your drafts, Pierre is your man. The Marlins don’t have a lot of
talent outside of Logan Morrison and Giancarlo Stanton so unless he suffers an injury he’ll get at-bats
and most likely bat lead-off. It’s possible he could have 50+ SBs.
A.J. Pierzynski
Bats: L | Age: 36 | Team: Rangers | Position: C | RK: 14 (273)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
32
535
13
57
49
1/1
9.7%
4.5%
.300
.331
.425
.756
.312
10.4%
2010
MLB
33
503
9
43
56
3/4
7.8%
3.0%
.270
.300
.388
.688
.278
6.9%
2011
MLB
34
500
8
38
48
0/0
6.6%
4.6%
.287
.323
.405
.728
.291
8.2%
2012
MLB
35
520
27
68
77
0/0
15.0%
5.4%
.278
.326
.501
.827
.280
24.8%
It’s important not to have any personal biases when it comes to fantasy baseball. If you do, you’re giving
your opponents a competitive advantage. A.J. Pierzynski is a douche; he slides with his spikes up and is
someone I would never want to have a conversation with. That said, I rode him to a victory in my
massive jelly bean league. Can he repeat his numbers? Very unlikely. I’m not going to own him in any
mixed leagues besides two catcher leagues. Even though he’s moving to a more hitter friendly ballpark,
the 2012 season screams outlier with a career high HR/FB rate of 24.8%.
Trevor Plouffe
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Twins | Position: 3B | RK: 24 (280)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
445
15
53
49
5/5
20.2%
6.1%
.244
.296
.430
.726
.272
15.6%
2011
AAA
25
220
15
33
33
3/1
17.7%
9.5%
.313
.384
.635
1.019
.319
27.8%
2011
MLB
25
320
8
47
31
3/3
22.2%
7.8%
.238
.305
.392
.697
.286
12.1%
2012
MLB
26
465
24
56
55
1/3
19.8%
8.0%
.235
.301
.455
.756
.244
21.5%
One of the biggest surprises was Plouffe’s overall power numbers at the end of the year. Of the 24 HRs
he hit, 11 came in the month of June. I don’t believe he’s going to 24+ HRs again, but he could hit 15-20
if he plays the entire year.
Placido Polanco
Bats: R | Age: 37 | Team: Marlins | Position: 3B | RK: 28 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
33
675
10
82
72
7/2
6.8%
5.3%
0.285
0.331
0.396
0.727
0.293
6.2%
2010
MLB
34
602
6
76
52
5/0
7.8%
5.3%
0.298
0.339
0.386
0.725
0.312
4.7%
2011
MLB
35
523
5
46
50
3/0
8.4%
8.0%
0.277
0.335
0.339
0.674
0.292
4.0%
2012
MLB
36
328
2
28
19
0/0
7.6%
5.5%
0.257
0.302
0.327
0.629
0.274
3.1%
Polanco isn’t very good. It’s been three years since he’s been 10-team league worthy. At the age of 37
Polanco enters the year as the front runner to be the Marlins starting third baseman. This could be
relevant because he could hit second in the order, in front of Logan Morrison and Giancarlo Stanton,
which means he could score 85+ runs if he gets 520 plate appearances.
Buster Posey
Bats: R | Age: 26 | Team: Giants | Position: C | RK: 1 (41)
Year
2010
LVL
AAA
AGE
23
PA
208
HR
6
R
31
RBI
32
SB/CS
1/1
SO%
14.4%
BB%
13.5%
AVG
.349
OBP
.451
SLG
.552
OPS
1.003
BABIP
.397
HR/FB
12.8%
2010
MLB
23
443
18
58
67
0/2
12.4%
6.8%
.305
.357
.505
.862
.315
17.1%
2011
MLB
24
185
4
17
21
3/0
16.2%
9.7%
.284
.368
.389
.757
.326
12.1%
2012
MLB
25
610
24
78
103
1/1
15.7%
11.3%
.336
.408
.549
.957
.368
20.0%
With an ADP of 13 he’s going ahead of players like Prince Fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, Troy Tulowitzki and
Clayton Kershaw. Proponents of taking Posey that high say the lack of offensive depth at the catcher
position makes his production even more valuable. That’s true for the 2012 season, but as fantasy
owners we’re drafting players on what they will do in 2013. All the underlying stats last year suggest a
regression is coming. During the second half of the season he had a .385 batting average; there’s no way
that’s going to happen again. The 20% HR/FB rate and .368 BABIP were extremely high as well. Before
2012, his career BABIP in the big leagues was .314. For additional context, according to Fan Graphs, an
average BABIP is between .290-.310 and average HR/FB rate is 9.5%. Another reason for drafting Posey
so high is the replacement level value at catcher is the lowest for any position; basically, the value a free
agent provides is a lot less than a free agent outfielder. However, for the first time in a long time catcher
is pretty deep. There are 17 catchers I would be happy with on my team. For two-catcher leagues taking
Posey 13th overall would make more sense, but would still be too high because catchers get hurt and
wear down more often than other position, thereby making them riskier. Owners should draft him with
the expectation of him repeating the numbers he posted the first half of 2012 .289/.362/.458 rather
than the .385/.456/.646 numbers in the second half.
Martin Prado
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: 3B, OF | RK: 8 (55)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
503
11
64
49
1/3
11.7%
7.2%
.307
.358
.464
.822
.331
9.6%
2010
MLB
26
651
15
100
66
5/3
13.2%
6.1%
.307
.350
.459
.809
.335
10.6%
2011
MLB
27
590
13
66
57
4/8
8.8%
5.8%
.260
.302
.385
.687
.266
8.8%
2012
MLB
28
690
10
81
70
17/4
10.0%
8.4%
.301
.359
.438
.797
.322
7.1%
Last year Prado followed up a poor 2011 year with a good year in 2012. He also played in 156 games, the
most he’s played in his career. I chalk up the poor 2011 year as an aberration primarily due to various
injuries: a leg infection that never really healed and a finger injury in August. Prado moves from a
neutral hitter’s ballpark in Atlanta to an extremely hitter friendly ballpark, which only helps his prospects
for a great 2013 season.
Jurickson Profar
Bats: B | Age: 20 | Team: Rangers | Position: 2B, SS | RK: 38 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
A-
17
288
4
42
23
8/3
16.0%
9.7%
.250
.318
.373
.691
.284
6.8%
2011
A
18
516
12
86
65
23/9
12.2%
12.6%
.286
.390
.493
.883
.309
15.0%
2012
AA
19
562
14
76
62
16/4
14.1%
11.7%
.281
.368
.452
.820
.306
9.9%
2012
MLB
19
17
1
2
2
0/0
23.5%
0.0%
.176
.176
.471
.647
.167
33.3%
Profar is regarded as the best prospect in baseball, performing so well in Double-A (at the age of 19) he
earned a call-up to the Show. He has power above average power from both sides of the plate, makes
solid contact and has a great understanding of the strike zone. There are questions if he’ll start the year
in the majors as they already have Ian Kinsler at second base and Elvis Andrus at shortstop. His ceiling is
a 20/20 player with gold glove caliber defense. For this year, in non-keeper leagues, temper
expectations and be excited if he hits .260 with 10/10.
Albert Pujols
Bats: R | Age: 33 | Team: Angels | Position: 1B | RK: 3 (13)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
700
47
124
135
16/4
9.1%
16.4%
.327
.443
.658
1.101
.299
28.2%
2010
MLB
30
700
42
115
118
14/4
10.9%
14.7%
.312
.414
.596
1.010
.297
27.6%
2011
MLB
31
651
37
105
99
9/1
8.9%
9.4%
.299
.366
.541
.907
.277
23.4%
2012
MLB
32
670
30
85
105
8/1
11.3%
7.8%
.285
.343
.516
.859
.282
18.3%
The slow start of Pujols’ 2012 season was well documented, but his return to being Albert Pujols in big
capital letters went under the radar. It’s possible the cause of his slow start was due to pressing to
impress his new employers, but that doesn’t erase the fact his offensive numbers have been in decline
the past three seasons. He had all-time lows in BB%, HRs, SLG and OPS in 2012 as well as striking more
than ever did. He’s still a great player, but no longer looks like a slam dunk that should be taken in the
first round.
Carlos Quentin
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Padres | Position: OF | RK: 58 (196)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
399
21
47
56
3/0
13.0%
7.8%
.236
.323
.456
.779
.221
19.5%
2010
MLB
27
527
26
73
87
2/2
15.7%
9.5%
.243
.342
.479
.821
.241
21.1%
2011
MLB
28
483
24
53
77
1/1
17.4%
7.0%
.254
.340
.499
.839
.261
18.9%
2012
MLB
29
340
16
44
46
0/1
12.1%
10.6%
.261
.374
.504
.878
.252
18.2%
Quentin was hampered by a knee injury most of the season and only limited him to only 86 games.
However, when he did play, he hit for power and slugged at .504 clip. There wasn’t a big drop off in his
home-road splits, which indicate Petco Park shouldn’t his hamper that much if he were able to play a full
season. That’s the big question; can he play a full year? In the past six seasons he’s only averaged 108
games per year. If he can play 145+ games, he could hit 30+ home runs.
Alexei Ramirez
Bats: R | Age: 31 | Team: White Sox | Position: SS | RK: 10 (132)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
27
606
15
71
68
14/5
10.9%
8.1%
.277
.333
.389
.722
.288
11.6%
2010
MLB
28
626
18
83
70
13/8
13.1%
4.3%
.282
.313
.431
.744
.300
14.5%
2011
MLB
29
684
15
81
70
7/5
12.3%
7.5%
.269
.328
.399
.727
.288
11.0%
2012
MLB
30
621
9
59
73
20/7
12.4%
2.6%
.265
.287
.364
.651
.290
6.6%
In 2012 Ramirez had a career high in SBs and a career low in HRs. The power outage could be due to an
extremely low in HR/FB rate (6.6%). With the emergence of young shortstops, Ramirez may be a
forgotten man on draft day. If he is, grab him because he’s an extremely reliable fantasy player who can
easily provide 15/15 production. If he can bring his walk totals to his pre-2011 levels, he could steal 25+
SBs.
Aramis Ramirez
Bats: R | Age: 35 | Team: Brewers | Position: 3B | RK: 10 (69)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
31
342
15
46
65
2/1
12.6%
8.2%
.317
.389
.516
.905
.331
16.9%
2010
MLB
32
507
25
61
83
0/0
17.8%
6.7%
.241
.294
.452
.746
.245
14.7%
2011
MLB
33
626
26
80
93
1/1
11.0%
6.9%
.306
.361
.510
.871
.308
16.7%
2012
MLB
34
630
27
92
105
9/2
13.0%
7.0%
.300
.360
.540
.900
.310
17.3%
Contrary to most fantasy analysts last year, Ramirez did not see a decline in his fantasy value. Rather, he
provided numbers fantasy owners were accustomed to see during to his pre-2008 years. Will he put
similar numbers similar to 2012? The underlying stats do not suggest a regression is on its way.
However, he’ll enter the year at the age of 35 and I have doubts whether he can stay healthy for the
entire year; previous to 2012, he’s only averaged 126 games played the past four years. If you draft him,
keep him; he’s notorious for starting slow every year. The biggest worry I have about Ramirez is the fact
he is a slow starter. Suppose this is the year he starts his decline, fantasy owners will not bench or trade
him because analysts will argue he is a slow starter and to remain patient.
Hanley Ramirez
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Dodgers| Position: SS, 3B | RK: 3 (38)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
652
24
101
106
27/8
15.5%
9.4%
.342
.410
.543
.953
.379
17.5%
2010
MLB
26
619
21
92
76
32/10
15.0%
10.3%
.300
.378
.475
.853
.327
20.8%
2011
MLB
27
385
10
55
45
20/10
17.1%
11.4%
.243
.333
.379
.712
.275
15.9%
2012
MLB
28
667
24
79
92
21/7
19.8%
8.1%
.257
.322
.437
.759
.290
19.4%
In 2012 not only was Ramirez traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, he also played the second highest
amount of games in his seven year career. His power and speed combo is hard to find at any position.
However, the .300+ AVG and 50+ SBs he used to provide are long gone; if he continues to strike out 20%
of the time, be happy with a .260 AVG. He’s projected bat fifth, behind Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez.
If both of them return to form, Ramirez may find himself with a large number of plate appearances with
runners on base.
Colby Rasmus
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: OF | RK: 74 (292)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
520
16
72
52
3/1
18.3%
6.9%
.251
.307
.407
.714
.282
11.1%
2010
MLB
23
534
23
85
66
12/8
27.7%
11.8%
.276
.361
.498
.859
.354
18.7%
2011
MLB
24
526
14
75
53
5/2
22.1%
9.5%
.225
.298
.391
.689
.267
12.8%
2012
MLB
25
625
23
75
75
4/3
23.8%
7.5%
.223
.289
.400
.689
.259
17.0%
Last year Rasmus matched his career high in HRs with 23 as well as hitting a career low .223. The second
half was especially brutal, hitting only 6 HRs with a slash line of .176/.238/.278. Even though it doesn’t
seem likely he’ll return to his 2010 form, the fact he’s done it before makes him too good to pass up.
Like with ranking prospects, always bet on the tools and the fact he’s shown elite performance, even if
its bursts. If the price is right, he’ll get another chance on my team.
Josh Reddick
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Athletics | Position: OF | RK: 22 (62)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
62
2
5
4
0/0
27.4%
3.2%
.169
.210
.339
.549
.200
10.5%
2010
MLB
23
63
1
5
5
1/0
23.8%
1.6%
.194
.206
.323
.529
.239
5.9%
2011
MLB
24
278
7
41
28
1/2
18.0%
6.8%
.280
.327
.457
.784
.318
8.7%
2012
MLB
25
673
32
85
85
11/1
22.4%
8.2%
.242
.305
.463
.768
.269
19.5%
Finally given a chance for consistent playing time, Reddick was able to show off his gold glove defense.
Most fantasy owners would be surprised to hear Reddick had 11 stolen bases last year to go along with
his 32 home runs last year. He’s currently going as the 40th outfielder, which is probably due to his .242
batting average. His batting average could have been better if it wasn’t for a September slump; before
September he was hitting .262. He’s likely to hit in the middle of the Athletics lineup the entire year and
will have a lot of RBI opportunities. He strikes out too much (22% strikeout rate) to have batting average
ceiling greater than .270 though.
Nolan Reimold
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Orioles | Position: OF | RK: 103 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
411
15
49
45
8/2
18.7%
11.4%
.279
.365
.466
.831
.316
2.2%
2010
MLB
26
131
3
9
14
0/0
19.8%
9.2%
.207
.282
.328
.610
.236
1.8%
2011
MLB
27
305
13
40
45
7/2
18.7%
9.2%
.247
.328
.453
.781
.264
17.1%
2012
MLB
28
69
5
10
10
1/0
2.3%
2.9%
.313
.333
.627
.960
.333
31.2%
Reimold’s biggest roadblock has been injuries. For the past three seasons he’s been hampered by
injuries. Last year a neck injury limited him to only 16 games. If he were given full playing time he could
hit 20 home runs. However, the resigning of Nate McLouth is preventing him from getting that playing
time. However, it looks as though he’ll be platooned against left handed pitching so he provides some
value in AL-only leagues.
Ben Revere
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Phillies | Position: OF | RK: 46 (147)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
23
141
1
15
9
8/2
7.8%
4.3%
.303
.338
.364
.702
.325
5.0%
2011
MLB
23
481
0
56
30
34/9
8.5%
5.4%
.267
.310
.309
.619
.293
0.0%
2012
AAA
24
101
0
9
6
6/2
5.9%
4.0%
.330
.360
.340
.700
.348
0.0%
2012
MLB
24
553
0
70
32
40/9
9.8%
5.2%
.294
.333
.342
.675
.325
0.0%
Over his career Ben Revere has a slash line of .278/.319/.323 with 74 stolen bases with 40 of them
coming last year. Suppose Chase Utley plays a full year and Ryan Howard returns to his pre-injury self,
Revere could be in store with 95+ runs with 40+ stolen bases.
Mark Reynolds
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Indians | Position: 3B, 1B, DH | RK: 25 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
662
44
98
102
24/9
33.7%
11.5%
.260
.349
.543
.892
.338
32.9%
2010
MLB
26
596
32
79
85
7/4
35.4%
13.9%
.198
.320
.433
.753
.257
27.1%
2011
MLB
27
620
37
84
86
6/4
31.6%
12.1%
.221
.323
.483
.806
.266
27.8%
2012
MLB
28
538
23
65
69
1/3
29.6%
13.6%
.221
.335
.429
.764
.282
21.7%
The former Oriole signed a one-year deal with the Cleveland Indians to become their primary first
baseman/designated hitter. Reynolds provides something that is scarce in fantasy baseball; power, and
a lot of it. That power does come at the price of batting average and contact-ability. His home run totals
can be misleading because 39% of his HRs came within two weeks in early September. Fantasy owners
who draft him will have to keep him in their lineup the entire season and take the good with the bad.
Jose Reyes
Bats: B | Age: 30 | Team: Blue Jays| Position: SS | RK: 2 (25)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
166
2
18
15
11/2
11.4%
10.8%
.279
.355
.395
.750
.307
6.9%
2010
MLB
27
603
11
83
54
30/10
10.4%
5.1%
.282
.321
.428
.749
.301
8.5%
2011
MLB
28
586
7
101
44
39/7
7.0%
7.3%
.337
.384
.493
.877
.353
5.2%
2012
MLB
29
716
11
86
57
40/11
7.8%
8.8%
.287
.347
.433
.780
.298
7.8%
Like most of the Marlins’ high priced talent, Reyes was traded this offseason. 2012 marked the first time
in three seasons he was able to play a full year, playing in 160 games. His power upside is no longer in
the 20s, but, instead, is now in the teens. His SBs are no longer in the 60s, but in the 40s. On a positive
note he’ll bat leadoff for one of the best offenses in the game (on paper) so expecting 115+ runs isn’t
crazy. He carries a lot of risk because of his injury history and replacement level for shortstops is the
lowest of all positions.
Alex Rios
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: White Sox | Position: OF | RK: 33 (99)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
633
17
63
71
24/5
16.9%
5.8%
.247
.296
.395
.691
.273
11.6%
2010
MLB
29
617
21
89
88
34/14
15.1%
6.2%
.284
.334
.457
.791
.306
16.5%
2011
MLB
30
570
13
64
44
11/6
11.9%
4.7%
.227
.265
.348
.613
.237
10.4%
2012
MLB
31
640
25
93
91
23/6
14.4%
4.1%
.304
.334
.516
.850
.323
16.4%
Fantasy baseball’s real life version of Jekyll and Hyde is Alex Rios as he randomly changes from fantasy
gold to kryptonite from year to year. Rios set career highs in AVG and HRs in 2012. Both of those stats
were heavily influenced by luck in the forms of BABIP and the HR/FB ratio. Supposing he regresses to
being a .278 hitter, his career average, his stolen base production will likely decrease because he’ll be on
base far less often. Rios is a player I will not own in any league because there’s always one owner who
looks at the 2012 stats and pays full value.
Anthony Rizzo
Bats: L | Age: 23 | Team: Cubs | Position: 1B | RK: 15 (110)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
21
413
26
64
101
7/6
21.5%
10.4%
.331
.404
.652
1.056
.369
34.2%
2011
MLB
21
153
1
9
9
2/1
30.1%
13.7%
.141
.281
.242
.523
.210
3.3%
2012
AAA
22
284
23
48
62
2/2
18.3%
8.1%
.342
.405
.696
1.101
.357
42.6%
2012
MLB
22
368
15
44
48
3/2
16.8%
7.3%
.285
.342
.463
.805
.310
22.4%
During his first year in the majors (with the San Diego Padres) Rizzo clearly looked overwhelmed and it
showed, striking out 30% of the time. He started 2012 in Triple-A and made the necessary adjustments
to become more prepared for major league pitchers, specifically reducing the length in his swing. The
adjustments paid off as he reduced his strike out rate 44% and increased contact his contact rate 17.5%.
In only 368 major league plate appearances he had a slash line of .286/.342/.463 with 15 home runs.
He’s being drafted as the 9th first baseman, which is too high. I believe is high ADP is based on taking
the rates and multiplying them by 600 plate appearances. For example, if he had 660 plate appearances
he would have had 27 home runs with 86 RBI and 80 runs. He’s currently being drafted ahead of Freddie
Freeman, Eric Hosmer and Ike Davis. I have all three of those players higher in my personal ranks. I
would think fantasy owners would learn from the mistakes that were made with all the hype
surrounding Brett Lawrie and Desmond Jennings last year. His overall ceiling could be in the low 30s, but
he still has a long way to go before reaching that power potential. I have Rizzo as my 16th first baseman
because I want to see him do it for a full season before I draft him in the first ten rounds.
Brian Roberts
Bats: B | Age: 35 | Team: Orioles | Position: 2B | RK: 27 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
31
717
16
110
79
30/7
15.6%
10.3%
.283
.356
.451
.807
.318
8.7%
2010
MLB
32
261
4
28
15
12/2
15.3%
10.0%
.278
.354
.391
.745
.319
5.5%
2011
MLB
33
178
3
18
19
6/1
11.8%
6.7%
.221
.273
.331
.604
.236
5.1%
2012
MLB
34
74
0
2
5
1/1
16.2%
6.8%
.182
.233
.182
.415
.214
0.0%
Roberts, again, was limited due to injuries. Last year it was hip and concussion issues. 2009 was the last
year he had more than 500 at-bats. Except in only the deepest of leagues, it is time for fantasy owners
to move on and find better options. As of March 11, Roberts is healthy and playing well. I want to see
him sustain his current Spring Training performance before I even think about drafting him in anything
besides an AL-only league.
Ryan Roberts
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Rays | Position: 3B, 2B | RK: 31 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
351
7
41
25
7/3
15.7%
11.4%
.279
.367
.416
.783
.320
7.6%
2010
MLB
29
71
2
8
9
0/0
23.9%
4.2%
.197
.229
.348
.577
.229
11.8%
2011
MLB
30
555
19
86
65
18/9
17.7%
11.9%
.249
.341
.427
.768
.275
14.4%
2012
MLB
31
489
12
51
52
10/6
18.8%
8.2%
.235
.296
.360
.656
.267
9.0%
The Rays signed Roberts to a one-year, $2.95 million dollar contract. Now that may not sound like a lot
of money, but it’s a huge chunk of change for the frugal Rays. That tells me the Rays see something we
(or at least me) do not see. He’s eligible at third and second base, which makes him more valuable in
deeper leagues, but he strikes out too much, which will limit his AVG. With the signing of Kelly Johnson
means he’ll enter the year on the bad side of a platoon split.
Alex Rodriguez
Bats: R | Age: 37 | Team: Yankees | Position: 3B | RK: 34 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
33
535
30
78
100
14/2
18.1%
15.0%
.286
.402
.532
.934
.303
27.6%
2010
MLB
34
595
30
74
125
4/3
16.5%
9.9%
.270
.341
.506
.847
.274
23.2%
2011
MLB
35
428
16
67
62
4/1
18.7%
11.0%
.276
.362
.461
.823
.311
17.4%
2012
MLB
36
529
18
74
57
13/1
21.9%
9.6%
.272
.353
.430
.783
.323
18.4%
One of the most enigmatic players in the game, Arod had another down year, hitting only 18 HRs. In
early December he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left hip that is expected sideline him well into
the 2013 season. Is he draftable? Until we learn when he’s expected to return, he can only be drafted in
leagues with a deep bench; other than those leagues I want my bench to include players who can help
me win now. What kind of player will he be if he comes back? Last year he was cheating on fastballs
because the bat speed has dropped dramatically.
Jimmy Rollins
Bats: B | Age: 34 | Team: Phillies | Position: SS | RK: 8 (82)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
725
21
100
77
31/8
9.7%
6.1%
.250
.296
.423
.719
.251
11.8%
2010
MLB
31
394
8
48
41
17/1
8.1%
10.2%
.243
.320
.374
.694
.246
9.4%
2011
MLB
32
631
16
87
63
30/8
9.4%
9.2%
.268
.338
.399
.737
.275
10.3%
2012
MLB
33
699
23
102
68
30/5
13.7%
8.9%
.250
.316
.427
.743
.262
15.6%
I thought the 2012 season would be the start of Rollins’ decline, but I was proved wrong. His power
numbers were aided a five year high in his HR/FB rate (15.6%). His SO% increased five percentage points
compared to the last six seasons. The steals may taper off, but I don’t foresee a massive drop-off. I’m
almost certain at least one player in every fantasy draft will see the 23 HRs, recognize the name and
overpay for him.
Wilin Rosario
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Rockies | Position: C | RK: 3 (85)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
21
297
19
42
52
1/0
19.2%
7.1%
.285
.341
.552
.893
.296
29.2%
2011
AA
22
426
21
52
48
1/2
21.4%
4.5%
.249
.284
.457
.741
.272
40.5%
2011
MLB
22
57
3
6
8
0/0
35.1%
3.5%
.204
.228
.463
.691
.250
23.1%
2012
MLB
23
426
28
67
71
4/5
23.2%
5.9%
.270
.312
.530
.842
.289
31.1%
Rosario had the quietest 28 HRs of anyone in baseball last year. His scouting report suggests the power
is legit; he has plus power and a solid 50 hit tool that will allow enough contactability to hit a solid.265
with room for growth. If he’s healthy for a full year 20 HRs may be his floor. His home/away splits
suggest his batting average was helped greatly by Coors Field (like most players on the Rockies). In H2H
leagues he would be a great streaming option for only home games.
Cody Ross
Bats: R | Age: 32 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: OF | RK: 82 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
604
24
73
90
5/2
20.2%
5.6%
.270
.321
.469
.790
.306
15.9%
2010
MLB
29
569
14
71
65
9/2
21.3%
6.5%
.269
.322
.413
.735
.324
13.8%
2011
MLB
30
461
14
54
52
5/2
20.8%
10.6%
.240
.325
.405
.730
.279
12.9%
2012
MLB
31
528
22
70
81
2/3
24.4%
8.0%
.267
.326
.481
.807
.317
16.4%
Ross is a solid hitter who doesn’t do anything well from a fantasy perspective. He provides a little pop
with an average that doesn’t hurt you, but that’s it. It’s hard to imagine Ross playing in a better hitter’s
park than Fenway, but it’s true. It’s possible his power could move up a tick compared to last year, but
28 is his ceiling. He should be owned in all deep mixed leagues.
Justin Ruggiano
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Marlins | Position: OF | RK: 95 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
29
190
7
29
34
12/2
22.1%
10.5%
.304
.378
.518
.896
.370
-
2011
MLB
29
111
4
11
13
1/1
23.4%
3.6%
.248
.273
.400
.673
.289
14.3%
2012
AAA
30
138
5
21
29
5/3
17.4%
13.0%
.325
.409
.581
.990
.367
15.6%
2012
MLB
30
320
13
38
36
14/8
26.3%
9.1%
.313
.374
.535
.909
.401
21.0%
His final stat line makes it look like Ruggiano could be a deep sleeper. In only 288 ABs he hit .313 with 13
HRs and 14 SBs. It’s possible to say “if he was given 550 ABs he would hit 25 HRs and 27 SBs.” But as
Brett Lawrie and Desmond Jennings learned last year, judging players in a small sample size is highly
inaccurate. If you dig deeper you’ll see he struck out a little more than 26% of the time, which is insanely
high and not conducive to generating a high batting average. He’s going to regress and will not be
owned in any of my teams. If you don’t believe me check out the piece R.J. Anderson wrote.
Carlos Ruiz
Bats: R | Age: 34 | Team: Phillies | Position: C | RK: 18 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
379
9
32
43
3/2
10.3%
12.4%
.255
.355
.425
.780
.264
2009
2010
MLB
31
433
8
43
53
0/1
12.5%
12.7%
.302
.400
.447
.847
.335
2010
2011
MLB
32
472
6
49
40
1/0
10.2%
10.2%
.283
.371
.383
.754
.308
2011
2012
MLB
33
421
16
56
68
4/0
11.9%
6.9%
.325
.394
.540
.934
.339
2012
Just by looking at his stat line the past few years, it’s easy to see which year looks like the outlier. Now, I
can’t offer any further analysis without mentioning he’ll miss the first 25 games of the year with a
suspension for testing positive for the amphetamine Adderall. I’m not a doctor and I have no idea if the
drug affected his offensive output. Russell A. Carleton wrote a fantastic article at Baseball Prospectus
about how Adderall could benefit players. I won’t go into much detail about the article because I want
to reward good writing, but I believe Adderall didn’t have a dramatic effect on his offensive numbers. Do
not draft him expecting 12+ HRs; in fact I wouldn’t draft him in ten team leagues.
Josh Rutledge
Bats: R | Age: 24 | Team: Rockies | Position: 2B, SS | RK: 12 (133)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
A-
21
45
0
6
4
1/0
22.2%
8.9%
.128
.222
.128
.350
.167
0.0%
2011
A+
22
523
9
91
71
16/3
17.4%
7.8%
.348
.414
.517
.931
.417
14.7%
2012
AA
23
379
13
57
35
14/4
18.2%
3.7%
.306
.338
.508
.846
.345
14.1%
2012
MLB
23
291
8
37
37
7/0
18.6%
3.1%
.274
.306
.469
.775
.315
14.1%
Ruthledge leaped from Double-A to the major leagues, hitting .274/.306/.469 with 8 HRs and 7 SBs.
There are two reasons why he’s fantasy relevant: A) he plays in Coors, which added 20 points to the AVG
and B) his swing, which is short and simple, that will allow him to make consistent contact at home and
on the road. He has the tools to consistently hit for a high average with a lot of doubles. He’ll provide
small contributions with the power but he’ll provide a nice average with 15+ SBs. In terms of power, his
ceiling may be 15 home runs because he doesn’t hit enough fly balls to hit a lot of home runs (30.9% of
hits were fly balls). Also, Rutledge will not start the year second base eligible, but is expected to be the
starting second baseman.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Bats: B | Age: 28 | Team: Red Sox | Position: C, DH | RK: 21 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
310
9
34
34
0/2
31.3%
7.1%
.233
.290
.371
.661
.320
14.5%
2010
MLB
25
30
0
2
2
0/0
16.7%
20.0%
.167
.333
.292
.625
.211
0.0%
2011
MLB
26
386
16
52
56
1/0
30.8%
6.2%
.235
.288
.450
.738
.304
17.6%
2012
MLB
27
448
25
55
59
0/1
31.0%
8.5%
.222
.288
.454
.742
.265
22.1%
It says Saltalamacchia is a switch hitter, but his bat is only useful from the left side. He provides
tremendous power upside for a catcher, but at the cost of his AVG. Will he hit 25 HRs again? I say no.
With the Red Sox signing Mike Napoli and David Ross, Saltalamacchia is going to be sitting against
lefties, which will decrease his cumulative stats. He had a career high HR/FB rate of 22% which isn’t
sustainable. Fantasy owners should expect 13-18 HRs. Will his AVG improve? I’m not optimistic about
any player getting a significant increase in AVG even if he’s only batting against right hand pitchers
because he only hit .230 last year. Also, he strikes out more than 30% of the time; for the past four
seasons his lowest SO% was 30.8%.
Pablo Sandoval
Bats: B | Age: 26 | Team: Sandoval | Position: 3B | RK: 6 (51)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
22
633
25
79
90
5/5
13.1%
8.2%
.330
.387
.556
.943
.350
17.8%
2010
MLB
23
616
13
61
63
3/2
13.1%
7.6%
.268
.323
.409
.732
.291
9.4%
2011
MLB
24
466
23
55
70
2/4
13.5%
6.9%
.315
.357
.552
.909
.320
20.0%
2012
MLB
25
442
12
59
63
1/1
13.3%
8.6%
.283
.342
.447
.789
.301
12.4%
Like with David Freese last year, his draft day value will likely be inflated because of his World Series
heroics. However, owners may forget he was one of the biggest busts in fantasy in 2012 and 2010. His
power in 2012 may have been suppressed by surgery on his left hand in early May. With a year removed
from surgery he could be primed to return to 20+ HRs. Another encouraging sign is the plate discipline
improved, posting the highest BB% in his career. Whether it’s conditioning, off the field shenanigans, or
game related, injuries are going to be a big question mark about him. If he can stay healthy he can be a
.300 hitter with 20 HRs, 100 RBI and runs.
Carlos Santana
Bats: B | Age: 27 | Team: Indians | Position: C, 1B | RK: 7 (126)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
246
13
39
51
6/0
15.9%
18.3%
.316
.451
.597
1.048
.340
23.2%
2010
MLB
24
192
6
23
22
3/0
15.1%
19.3%
.260
.401
.467
.868
.277
12.8%
2011
MLB
25
658
27
84
79
5/3
20.2%
14.7%
.239
.351
.457
.808
.263
20.9%
2012
MLB
26
609
18
72
76
3/5
16.6%
14.9%
.252
.365
.420
.785
.278
15.1%
His horrible May and June masked what could have been a better year than his 2011 campaign. His
second half OPS was .887, which is 9.7% higher than the .808 OPS he provided in 2011. The surprising
trend is he is becoming notorious for being a slow starter to begin each year. If he has a slow start again,
he’s an excellent buy low candidate that can be acquired via trade. He offers 20+ HR potential with a low
average, but last year he cut down his strikeouts and looks to be a safe .245 hitter. Fantasy owners
should enjoy his catcher eligibility because he’ll be playing at first base.
Michael Saunders
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Mariners | Position: OF | RK: 36 (101)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
23
327
10
29
33
6/3
25.7%
10.7%
.211
.295
.367
.662
.260
15.9%
2011
AAA
24
291
7
51
38
10/3
24.4%
17.2%
.288
.415
.449
.864
.384
14.9%
2011
MLB
24
179
2
16
8
6/2
31.3%
6.7%
.149
.207
.217
.424
.212
5.6%
2012
MLB
25
553
19
71
57
21/4
23.9%
7.8%
.247
.306
.432
.738
.297
19.2%
Saunders was one home run shy from being the only 20/20 guy on the Mariners. Much of his success
came from not his tools (because he has good tools), but from a change in his approach at the plate. In
2010-11 he swung at too many pitches out of the zone, striking out nearly 28% of the time. Last year he
made an adjustment, swinging at more pitches in the strike zone and laying off pitches out of the zone.
He’ll never be a high average guy, but .265 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Marco Scutaro
Bats: R | Age: 37 | Team: Giants | Position: 2B, SS | RK: 19 (213)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
33
680
12
100
60
14/5
11.0%
13.2%
.282
.379
.409
.788
.304
7.1%
2010
MLB
34
695
11
92
56
5/4
10.2%
7.6%
.275
.333
.388
.721
.295
6.1%
2011
MLB
35
445
7
59
54
4/2
8.1%
8.5%
.299
.358
.423
.781
.312
6.7%
2012
MLB
36
683
7
87
74
9/4
7.2%
5.9%
.306
.348
.405
.753
.319
4.3%
Despite his NLCS MVP Award, Scutaro only provides average AVG, below average pop, little speed and
will score a lot of runs batting second in a lineup with Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey hitting third and
fourth. Playing his home games in San Francisco will hinder his fantasy potential, increasing the
likelihood his power will be suppressed. Do not be like Brian Sabean and pay for what Scutaro did the
last two months of the season.
Kyle Seager
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Mariners | Position: 3B | RK: 11 (115)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AA
23
299
4
33
37
8/5
12.7%
8.7%
.312
.381
.459
.840
.350
-
2011
AAA
23
117
3
24
17
3/1
10.3%
9.4%
.387
.444
.585
1.029
.418
17.6%
2011
MLB
23
201
3
22
13
3/1
17.9%
6.5%
.258
.312
.379
.691
.303
5.6%
2012
MLB
24
651
20
62
86
13/5
16.9%
7.1%
.259
.316
.423
.739
.286
11.9%
Most scouts pegged Seager as a utility player rather than a starting third baseman. However, in 2012 he
hit for power and was fixture in the middle of the Mariners batting order. In the minors Seager hit for
average and drew a lot of walks, but didn’t hit for power. When he got to the majors he made
adjustments and turned his slappy swing to more of an uppercut , allowing the potential to generate
more fly balls and home runs. The adjustments paid off, resulting in 20 HRs. He’s an extreme fly ball
hitter (42% career in the majors) and will be the biggest benefactor of the fences moving this year at
Safeco. Also, he will also provide 10-15 SBs. I wouldn’t be shocked if he provides more fantasy value
than other highly touted prospects such as Mike Moustakas and Will Middlebrooks.
Jean Segura
Bats: R | Age: 22 | Team: Brewers| Position: SS | RK: 16 (189)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
A
20
581
10
89
79
50/10
12.4%
7.7%
.313
.363
.464
.827
.340
7.7%
2011
A+
21
202
3
26
21
18/6
12.9%
7.4%
.281
.337
.422
.759
.312
-
2012
AA
22
451
7
57
44
37/13
13.5%
6.0%
.304
.358
.413
.771
.341
8.4%
2012
MLB
22
166
0
19
14
7/1
13.9%
7.8%
.258
.315
.325
.640
.302
0.0%
The major piece of the Zack Greinke trade, Segura faired fairly well hitting .258/.315/.325 in 45 games.
He has a short swing that is conducive for making a lot of contact. He doesn’t have any home run power
though. He’s an above average runner who can easily steal 20-25 SBs with the potential for 30+. Injuries
have been a concern with him as he’s only had two fully healthy seasons in the minors. If he plays a full
year he could hit .280+ with 20 SBs and 10-15 HRs.
Andrelton Simmons
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Braves | Position: SS | RK: 22 (258)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
A+
21
570
1
69
52
26/18
7.5%
5.1%
.311
.351
.408
.759
.334
1.2%
2012
AA
22
203
3
29
21
10/2
9.9%
9.9%
.293
.372
.420
.792
.314
7.0%
2012
MLB
22
182
3
17
19
1/0
11.5%
6.6%
.289
.335
.416
.751
.310
10.4%
Simmons is a legit 70, Gold Glove caliber defensive shortstop with average speed. His swing isn’t
conducive for anything more than doubles power. Simmons enters the season with the starting gig and
his fantasy value depends on where hits in the lineup. If he hits leadoff he could provide a .280+ batting
average with 85+ runs. If he bats eighth he’s an NL-only player.
Scott Sizemore
Bats: R | Age: 28 | Team: Athletics | Position: 2B, 3B | RK: 32 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
25
342
9
49
37
2/2
22.5%
9.1%
.298
.379
.472
.851
.374
12.5%
2010
MLB
25
163
3
19
14
0/0
24.5%
9.2%
.224
.296
.336
.632
.287
12.5%
2011
AAA
26
135
3
28
18
5/2
17.0%
17.8%
.368
.485
.557
1.042
.439
25.0%
2011
MLB
26
429
11
50
56
5/3
26.1%
12.4%
.245
.342
.399
.741
.321
14.9%
Sizemore enters spring training as the front runner for the starting second base job. He missed all of
2012 with a torn ACL. The best thing to take away from the injury was the timing of it, the first day of
spring training. That means he’s had a full year to recover and rehab from this injury. With a slash line of
.313/.387/.485 in 697 at-bats in Triple-A, Sizemore has nothing left to prove in the minors. Sizemore has
the ability to hit major league pitching with a little pop (10 HRs) too.
Justin Smoak
Bats: B | Age: 26 | Team: Mariners | Position: 1B | RK: 38 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
23
397
13
40
48
1/0
22.9%
11.6%
.218
.307
.371
.678
.255
19.1%
2011
MLB
24
489
15
38
55
0/0
21.5%
11.2%
.234
.323
.396
.719
.273
15.0%
2012
AAA
25
82
0
10
4
1/0
19.5%
19.5%
.242
.390
.364
.754
.320
0.0%
2012
MLB
25
535
19
49
51
1/0
20.7%
9.2%
.217
.290
.364
.654
.242
18.5%
To say Smoak has been a disappointment could be an understatement. I haven’t read one scout who
thought Smoak wouldn’t be anything less than an above average first baseman; everyone thought he
would be a perennial All-Star. There’s going to be a lot of hub bub about how well he performed after he
was demoted to Triple-A in late July; specifically citing his slash line of .288/.375/.475 in 139 at-bats. I
took a dive into his resurgence and I saw he mostly feasted on left handed pitching: .392/.483/.725 slash
line. Against right handed hitters he hit .227/.310/.330. He still has trouble making contact against off
speed pitches, specifically the slider and changeup. His future is either a platoon hitter against left
handed pitching or an above average first baseman in Japan.
Travis Snider
Bats: L | Age: 25 | Team: Pirates | Position: OF | RK: 76 (297)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
23
277
4
47
42
12/1
15.9%
9.0%
.327
.394
.480
.874
.383
8.6%
2011
MLB
23
202
3
23
30
9/3
27.7%
5.4%
.225
.269
.348
.617
.300
7.5%
2012
AAA
24
246
13
49
56
2/4
17.1%
13.8%
.335
.423
.598
1.021
.363
27.1%
2012
MLB
24
185
4
23
17
2/0
25.9%
9.2%
.250
.319
.378
.697
.322
17.4%
For some reason Snider fell out of favor with the Blue Jays, which resulted in him playing in the minors
two full years after he was ready; career minor league .908 OPS. At the trade deadline Snider was traded
to the Pirates, who gave him full time at-bats. He’s expected to have the starting job again for the
Pirates in a make or break year for him. He has the raw tools to hit 25+ HRs with an above average AVG.
Denard Span
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Nationals | Position: OF | RK: 57 (195)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
676
8
97
68
23/10
13.2%
10.4%
.311
.392
.415
.807
.353
6.6%
2010
MLB
26
705
3
85
58
26/4
10.5%
8.5%
.264
.331
.348
.679
.294
2.4%
2011
MLB
27
311
2
37
16
6/1
11.6%
8.7%
.264
.328
.359
.687
.297
4.0%
2012
MLB
28
568
4
71
41
17/6
10.9%
8.3%
.283
.342
.395
.737
.315
4.9%
Up to this point in Denard Span’s career, he’s has been a better real life player than a fantasy player.
However, that changed after he was traded to the Washington Nationals and subsequently becomes
their leadoff hitter and starting center fielder. If he can maintain his .357 OBP he has a great opportunity
to score 100+ runs with 15-25 stolen bases.
Alfonso Soriano
Bats: R | Age: 37 | Team: Cubs | Position: OF | RK: 32 (96)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
33
522
20
64
55
9/2
22.6%
7.7%
.241
.303
.423
.726
.279
15.4%
2010
MLB
34
548
24
67
79
5/1
22.4%
8.2%
.258
.322
.496
.818
.295
15.5%
2011
MLB
35
508
26
50
88
2/1
22.2%
5.3%
.244
.289
.469
.758
.266
16.5%
2012
MLB
36
615
32
68
108
6/2
24.9%
7.2%
.262
.322
.499
.821
.303
20.7%
Soriano is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy baseball; he gets no respect. Every year he slips in drafts
because perceived ineptness despite statiscal data showing otherwise. He won’t hit 30+ HRs again, but
20 HRs is floor. As long as he plays for the Cubs, he’s going to bat fourth in the lineup which will provide
him plenty of RBI opportunities. The Cubs have made no secret they want to move Soriano and the best
way to do this is inflate his RBI numbers.
Geovany Soto
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Rangers | Position: C | RK: 35 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
389
11
27
47
1/0
19.8%
12.9%
.218
.321
.381
.702
.246
11.4%
2010
MLB
27
387
17
47
53
0/1
21.4%
16.0%
.280
.393
.497
.890
.324
21.2%
2011
MLB
28
474
17
46
54
0/0
26.2%
9.5%
.228
.310
.411
.721
.280
18.9%
2012
MLB
29
361
11
45
39
1/0
21.1%
8.3%
.198
.270
.343
.613
.222
12.8%
It’s safe to say the 2008 Rookie of the Year has not lived up to the hype after receiving the award. From
2011 to 2012 his SO% went from 26.2% to 21.1%, which provides some optimism. His 2012 AVG looks
like it suffered from a poor BABIP as all the other underlying stats look the same. He’s also an injury
concern as well, only averaging 108 games per year the last four years. He will backup A.J. Pierzynski so
he’s only draftable in AL-only leagues.
Giancarlo Stanton
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Marlins | Position: OF | RK: 13 (31)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
20
240
21
42
52
1/0
22.1%
18.3%
.313
.445
.729
1.174
.331
38.2%
2010
MLB
20
396
22
45
59
5/2
31.1%
8.6%
.259
.326
.507
.833
.330
34.5%
2011
MLB
21
601
34
79
87
5/5
27.6%
11.6%
.262
.356
.537
.893
.314
37.3%
2012
MLB
22
501
37
75
86
6/2
28.5%
9.2%
.290
.361
.608
.969
.344
35.9%
Despite knee surgery and a left oblique strain, Giancarlo Stanton set career highs in HRs and batting
average. With the largest raw power in baseball, he has the ability to hit 50+ HRs any given year. He may
be undervalued in drafts because of the lack of protection in the Marlins lineup; that notion is
overblown; last year Carlos Lee, Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez batted behind him. If he hits 40+
home runs 97% chance of driving in 100 runs. Last year he struck out 28.5% of the time; in past 50 years
there have been 50 players who struck out that much or higher. Of the 50, only 7 players were able to
hit greater than .270. In order to justify him being a top 15 pick he’s going to have to hit .270 and hit 42+
home runs, which isn’t going to happen.
Ian Stewart
Bats: L | Age: 28 | Team: Cubs | Position: 3B | RK: 32 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
25
441
18
54
61
5/2
24.9%
10.2%
.256
.338
.443
.781
.308
21.9%
2011
AAA
26
195
14
29
42
1/0
26.2%
11.3%
.275
.359
.591
.950
.308
50.0%
2011
MLB
26
136
0
14
6
3/2
27.2%
10.3%
.156
.243
.221
.464
.224
0.0%
2012
MLB
27
202
5
16
17
0/3
22.8%
10.4%
.201
.292
.335
.627
.242
15.6%
Dealing with an ailing wrist all year, Stewart didn’t hit for power or anything at all. By the time July rolled
around he opted for surgery, thereby ending his 2012 season. Even though he was playing hurt what’s
interesting is he had the lowest SO% of his entire big league career (22.8%). If he can beat out Josh
Vitters for the starting job, fantasy owners in NL-only leagues could find 15+ HRs.
Drew Stubbs
Bats: R | Age: 28 | Team: Indians | Position: OF | RK: 77 (299)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
196
8
27
17
10/4
25.0%
7.7%
.267
.323
.439
.762
.325
20.0%
2010
MLB
25
583
22
91
77
30/6
28.8%
9.4%
.255
.329
.444
.773
.330
19.8%
2011
MLB
26
681
15
92
44
40/10
30.1%
9.3%
.243
.321
.364
.685
.343
14.8%
2012
MLB
27
544
14
75
40
30/7
30.5%
7.7%
.213
.277
.333
.610
.290
17.9%
I love Drew Stubbs. He’s one of, if not, the best defensive center fielder in baseball. However, his
defense has no effect on his fantasy value. It’s difficult to be optimistic he’ll be able to turn things
around; he’s leaving a great hitters park to a below average ballpark, he just had the highest SO% of his
career (30.5%) and had the lowest BB% in the last three years. Stubbs has the speed to steal 35+ bases,
but it will be hard to achieve with an OBP in the low .300s.
Ichiro Suzuki
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
35
678
11
88
46
26/9
10.5%
4.7%
.352
.386
.465
.851
.384
9.7%
2010
MLB
36
732
6
74
43
42/9
11.7%
6.1%
.315
.359
.394
.753
.353
5.9%
2011
MLB
37
721
5
80
47
40/7
9.6%
5.4%
.272
.310
.335
.645
.295
4.9%
2012
MLB
38
663
9
77
55
29/7
9.2%
3.3%
.283
.307
.390
.697
.300
7.9%
Ichiro is a first ballot hall of famer. There’s no question about it. He’s the best hitter I’ve ever seen.
However, that doesn’t mean he belongs on your fantasy team. There are two ways to interrupt his
numbers after got traded to the Yankees: 1) it was a luck based on a small sample size or 2) playing in
the hitter friendly ballpark rejuvenated him. I’m siding with a mix of A and B. The most encouraging stat
is he stole half of his bases with the Yankees, in 175 less ABs, so it’s possible for him to return to 40+
SBs. It’s almost a certainty there’s going to be one owner who overvalues Ichiro based on his name
and/or because he’s a Yankee. I’m not paying full price and nor should you.
Kurt Suzuki
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Nationals | Position: C | RK: 32 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
614
15
74
88
8/2
9.6%
4.6%
.274
.313
.421
.734
.280
10.3%
2010
MLB
26
544
13
55
71
3/2
9.0%
6.1%
.242
.303
.366
.669
.245
11.8%
2011
MLB
27
515
14
54
44
2/2
12.4%
7.4%
.237
.301
.385
.686
.244
10.8%
2012
MLB
28
442
6
36
43
2/0
16.5%
4.5%
.235
.276
.328
.604
.269
5.6%
Even though he’s only 29, there’s a lot of mileage on his legs. During the past five years he’s averaged
136 games played. Suzuki did see a spike in his HR totals after being traded to the Nationals, providing
optimism his power will no longer suppressed by Oakland’s ballpark. I’ve seen him play every day for his
entire career; a resurgence is not coming. Suzuki is a NL-only option.
Nick Swisher
Bats: B | Age: 32 | Team: Indians | Position: 1B, OF | RK: 13 (88)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
607
29
84
82
0/0
20.8%
16.0%
.249
.371
.498
.869
.272
23.0%
2010
MLB
29
635
29
91
89
1/2
21.9%
9.1%
.288
.359
.511
.870
.335
18.6%
2011
MLB
30
635
23
81
85
2/2
19.7%
15.0%
.260
.374
.449
.823
.295
16.5%
2012
MLB
31
624
24
75
93
2/3
22.6%
12.3%
.272
.364
.473
.837
.324
19.4%
Swisher is a very consistent and underrated hitter whose avoided major injuries. A slight decline in
power is expected as he’s leaving one of the best ballparks for power to an average ballpark in
Cleveland. In the past three seasons 80% of his power came while batting left handed. Cleveland’s
ballpark is seventh best ballpark for left handed hitters, compared to Yankee Stadium ranking second.
He’s not a sexy player, but he can definitely help your fantasy team.
Mark Teixeira
Bats: B | Age: 33 | Team: Yankees | Position: 1B | RK: 24 (224)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
707
39
103
122
2/0
16.1%
11.5%
.292
.383
.565
.948
.302
22.5%
2010
MLB
30
712
33
113
108
0/1
17.1%
13.1%
.256
.365
.481
.846
.268
20.2%
2011
MLB
31
684
39
90
111
4/1
16.1%
11.1%
.248
.341
.494
.835
.239
23.1%
2012
MLB
32
524
24
66
84
2/1
15.8%
10.3%
.251
.332
.475
.807
.250
18.6%
Missing a little more than a month of the season with a left calf strain, Teixeira finished 21st on ESPNs
player rater among first basemen. Teixeira is not a player I will not own in any leagues this year because
there’s always one owner, probably a Yankee homer, who believes he will return to hitting .300 and hit
30+ HRs even though those days are no longer there. His batting averages the last three years are: .251,
.248, and .256. If his price finally becomes reasonable I may think about grabbing him, but I don’t
foresee that happening.
Ruben Tejada
Bats: R | Age: 23 | Team: Mets | Position: SS | RK: 28 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
20
255
1
28
15
2/2
14.9%
8.6%
.213
.305
.282
.587
.250
2.0%
2011
AAA
21
231
3
26
21
4/2
13.0%
8.2%
.246
.314
.353
.667
.274
6.7%
2011
MLB
21
376
0
31
36
5/1
13.3%
9.3%
.284
.360
.335
.695
.331
0.0%
2012
MLB
22
501
1
53
25
4/4
14.6%
5.4%
.289
.333
.351
.684
.339
1.0%
Tejada is a solid real life player, providing solid average defense at a premiere position. Unless you’re
playing in OBP leagues, he’ll do more harm than good because he won’t help your team in any category
besides AVG. However, he does have the raw speed to steal 15-20 SBs.
Mike Trout
Bats: R | Age: 21 | Team: Angels | Position: OF | RK: 1 (1)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AA
19
412
11
82
38
33/10
18.4%
10.9%
.326
.414
.544
.958
.390
24.5%
2011
MLB
19
135
5
20
16
4/0
22.2%
6.7%
.220
.281
.390
.671
.247
13.5%
2012
AAA
20
93
1
21
13
6/1
17.2%
11.8%
.403
.467
.623
1.090
.476
5.6%
2012
MLB
20
639
30
129
83
49/5
21.8%
10.5%
.326
.399
.564
.963
.383
23.7%
Is there anything Trout can’t do? He was so good he received all 28 first-place votes for Rookie of the
Year, becoming only the eighth player in history to accomplish that feat. Should he have won the MVP?
Yes, but that’s another matter all in itself. One strike against Trout as the first pick is his BABIP (batting
average on balls in play) was extremely high and unsustainable. But is it? Trout is an elite runner, which
is conducive for higher BABIPs because he can beat out a lot of infield hits with his speed. Can he repeat
30 home runs again? The Angels ballpark is the sixth worst stadium in baseball for home run power and
his HR/FB rate of 23.7% should regress (a normal HR/FB rate is 9.5%). However, according to Baseball
America’s 2012 Prospect Handbook the scouting grade they gave his power potential was in the high 20s
and low 30s (65 grade for the scouts out there). Supposing Trout only hits 15-20 home runs, he’ll still
provide elite stolen base production, allowing fantasy owners more flexibility during their drafts.
Mark Trumbo
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Angels | Position: 1B, OF, DH | RK: 14 (71)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
AA
23
581
15
54
88
6/3
17.2%
6.4%
.291
.337
.452
.789
.333
14.3%
2010
AAA
24
595
36
103
122
3/4
21.2%
9.7%
.301
.371
.577
.948
.335
26.9%
2011
MLB
25
573
29
65
87
9/4
20.9%
4.4%
.254
.291
.477
.768
.274
24.0%
2012
MLB
26
586
32
66
95
4/5
26.1%
6.1%
.268
.317
.491
.808
.316
27.1%
After the Angels traded Kendrys Morales for Jason Vargas, Trumbo became the full time DH and will bat
fifth behind Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Trumbo’s season was a tale of two halves. The first half his
slash line was .302/.358/.608 and his second half slash line was .227/.271/.359. He has the raw power,
but a poor approach (striking out 26% of the time) will limit the potential for batting average. On the
bright side his walk percentage increased two percentage points, showing he’s making some
adjustments to his approach. He would be the perfect complement to a Eric Hosmer or a Paul
Goldschmidt.
Troy Tulowitzki
Bats: R | Age: 28 | Team: Rockies | Position: SS | RK: 1 (10)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
628
32
101
92
20/11
17.8%
11.6%
.297
.377
.552
.929
.316
22.7%
2010
MLB
25
529
27
89
95
11/2
14.7%
9.1%
.315
.381
.568
.949
.327
25.5%
2011
MLB
26
606
30
81
105
9/3
13.0%
9.7%
.302
.372
.544
.916
.305
23.6%
2012
MLB
27
203
8
33
27
2/2
9.4%
9.4%
.287
.360
.486
.846
.284
17.0%
With an average draft position of 6.7 in ESPN leagues last year, Tulowitzki was one of the biggest fantasy
disappointments, playing in only 47 games due to elbow and groin injuries. The 30 HRs and .300+ AVG
are still there, but it looks as though the 20 SBs are no longer realistic. The biggest question about
Tulowitzki is durability, only averaging 120 games the past six seasons. He’s another player who will
either win or lose you a championship.
Dan Uggla
Bats: R | Age: 33 | Team: Braves | Position: 2B | RK: 22 (264)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
29
668
31
84
90
2/1
22.5%
13.8%
.243
.354
.459
.813
.274
21.3%
2010
MLB
30
674
33
100
105
4/1
22.1%
11.6%
.287
.369
.508
.877
.330
24.9%
2011
MLB
31
672
36
88
82
1/3
23.2%
9.2%
.233
.311
.453
.764
.253
23.3%
2012
MLB
32
630
19
86
78
4/3
26.7%
14.9%
.220
.348
.384
.732
.283
15.6%
Was last year the start of Uggla’s inevitable decline? His HR/FB rate (15.6%) was the lowest of his career
so there is hope the power will increase. What about his abysmal AVG? His BABIP was actually higher
compared to last year, but his strike out rate ballooned to 26.7%, four percentage points higher than last
year. Also, his contact rates for balls inside the strike zone decreased by four percentage points,
implying he’s losing/lost his bat speed. Another inditement about the loss of his bat speed was the
increase of his strikeout rate on pitches that were thrown “hard”. Last year he had a strikeout rate of
20.8% of hard pitches; in 2011 it was 14%, 2010 13.7%, 2009 15.7%. The days of him hitting .260+
appear to be over. It is also very likely he will not bat in the middle of the order, thereby limiting his RBI
and run scoring opportunities.
B.J. Upton
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Braves | Position: OF | RK: 12 (30)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
626
11
79
55
42/14
24.3%
9.1%
.241
.313
.373
.686
.310
9.5%
2010
MLB
25
610
18
89
62
42/9
26.9%
11.0%
.237
.322
.424
.746
.304
14.2%
2011
MLB
26
640
23
82
81
36/12
25.2%
11.1%
.243
.331
.429
.760
.298
17.9%
2012
MLB
27
633
28
79
78
31/6
26.7%
7.1%
.246
.298
.454
.752
.294
21.6%
Free agency was definitely on Upton’s mind last year. His approach changed as he was looking to take
less walks and hit more HRs, which is understandable for any impending free agent hitter based on how
free agents are compensated. A reverse back to his pre-2012 plate approach is likely to happen, where
he was more patient and walked more. Going to Atlanta may hinder his ability to swipe bags because
the Braves have ranked 26, 22, and 25 the past three years in stolen base attempts. A change in
approach and the fact he no longer has to call Tropicana his home ballpark makes me believe he can hit
between .250-.265.
Justin Upton
Bats: R | Age: 25 | Team: Braves| Position: OF | RK: 9 (23)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
21
588
26
84
86
20/5
23.3%
9.4%
.300
.366
.532
.898
.360
23.0%
2010
MLB
22
571
17
73
69
18/8
26.6%
11.2%
.273
.356
.442
.798
.354
16.4%
2011
MLB
23
674
31
105
88
21/9
18.7%
8.8%
.289
.369
.529
.898
.319
19.7%
2012
MLB
24
628
17
107
67
18/8
19.3%
10.0%
.280
.355
.430
.785
.327
13.9%
Based on his 2011 season I thought Upton was on the precipices of becoming an MVP. But what
happened instead is he took a huge step backwards, only hitting 17 home runs, 18 stolen bases and 67
RBI. His lack of power and offensive output was partly due to a thumb injury that became public only
after the season ended. What also could have contributed to his poor year was he didn’t get along with
the Diamondbacks coaching staff and upper management. The biggest hesitation I have about him is
he’s never been an top-10 player before. Even during his best season (in 2011) he only finished 17th on
ESPNs Player Rater. Most scouts would agree he has tools to hit .300 with 30+ home runs and 30+ stolen
bases, but he is moving from a great hitter’s park to a ballpark that is the eighth worst for right handed
hitters. Some could argue that’s not a big deal because Atlanta’s park is a neutral ballpark, but check out
his home-road splits for the past three seasons; it’s very clear to me he benefited from playing in
Arizona’s ballpark.
Home
Away
AB
781
860
R
149
136
H
243
218
HR
39
26
RBI
131
93
SB
20
37
CS
13
12
AVG
.311
.253
OBP
.392
.331
SLG
.536
.408
OPS
.928
.739
Chase Utley
Bats: L | Age: 34 | Team: Phillies | Position: 2B | RK: 16 (181)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
687
31
112
93
23/0
16.0%
12.8%
.282
.397
.508
.905
.300
17.5%
2010
MLB
31
511
16
75
65
13/2
12.3%
12.3%
.275
.387
.445
.832
.288
13.9%
2011
MLB
32
454
11
54
44
14/0
10.4%
8.6%
.259
.344
.425
.769
.269
8.5%
2012
MLB
33
362
11
48
45
11/1
11.9%
11.9%
.256
.365
.429
.794
.261
13.8%
Rehabbing through chronic patellofemoral pain, Utley returned from the DL in late June and put up
similar numbers to 2011. Utley will be entering the year at 34 years old with this chronic issue; it’s
important to note that this issue will not go away. Fantasy owners expecting a return the glory days of
30+ HRs, 20 SBs, 100/100 are long gone. Instead, fantasy owners should be happy if they receive 450+
plate appearances.
Will Venable
Bats: L | Age: 30 | Team: Padres | Position: OF | RK: 99 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
27
445
13
60
51
29/7
28.8%
10.1%
.245
.324
.408
.732
.324
15.8%
2011
AAA
28
64
3
14
11
3/0
20.3%
7.8%
.276
.328
.552
.880
.302
14.3%
2011
MLB
28
411
9
49
44
26/3
22.4%
7.5%
.246
.310
.395
.705
.300
12.3%
2012
MLB
29
470
9
62
45
24/6
20.0%
8.7%
.264
.335
.429
.764
.320
11.0%
Venable was a sneaky sleeper for the past years for his combination of speed and power, but his tools
have never translated on the field. He’s best suited for a platoon because he’s never figured out how to
hit lefties.
Dayan Viciedo
Bats: L | Age: 24 | Team: White Sox | Position: OF | RK: 64 (206)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
MLB
21
106
5
17
13
1/0
23.6%
1.9%
.308
.321
.519
.840
.365
26.3%
2011
AAA
22
505
20
60
78
2/1
16.4%
8.9%
.296
.364
.491
.855
.324
37.0%
2011
MLB
22
113
1
11
6
1/0
20.4%
8.0%
.255
.327
.314
.641
.321
5.0%
2012
MLB
23
543
25
64
78
0/2
22.1%
5.2%
.255
.300
.444
.744
.286
27.5%
After only hitting six HRs in first 206 ABs, Viciedo exploded with 25 HRs in 2012. Viciedo has tremendous
bat speed, enabling his solid average raw power to actualize. Despite his bat speed, he has a poor
approach at the plate, swinging at a lot of balls outside the strike zone. The power is legit, but his AVG
could be a liability as it could rely heavily on BABIP to maintain his .255 AVG last year.
Shane Victorino
Bats: B | Age: 32 | Team: Red Sox | Position: OF | RK: 83 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
694
10
102
62
25/8
10.2%
8.6%
.292
.358
.445
.803
.315
7.9%
2010
MLB
29
648
18
84
69
34/6
12.2%
8.2%
.259
.327
.429
.756
.273
13.9%
2011
MLB
30
586
17
95
61
19/3
10.8%
9.4%
.279
.355
.491
.846
.292
12.1%
2012
MLB
31
666
11
72
55
39/6
12.0%
8.0%
.255
.321
.383
.704
.278
8.1%
Victorino’s fantasy value is wrapped in his speed and I didn’t see any noticeable decline last year.
However, his bat speed dropped dramatically last year and his inability to hit against right handed
pitching, .244/.311/.390 over the last three seasons, will limit his AVG upside. The 20 HR upside is no
longer there, but if he’s given 600 plate appearances, he can hit 10 HRs with 35+ SBs.
Joey Votto
Bats: L | Age: 29 | Team: Reds | Position: 1B | RK: 1 (6)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
544
25
82
84
4/1
19.5%
12.9%
.322
.414
.567
.981
.372
20.8%
2010
MLB
26
648
37
106
113
16/5
19.3%
14.0%
.324
.424
.600
1.024
.361
28.3%
2011
MLB
27
719
29
101
103
8/6
17.9%
15.3%
.309
.416
.531
.947
.349
20.1%
2012
MLB
28
475
14
59
56
5/3
17.9%
19.8%
.337
.474
.567
1.041
.404
15.0%
Votto missed nearly two months of the season with two knee surgeries. When he came back in early
September he hit zero home runs. Fantasy owners should monitor his power during spring training to
make sure he’s 100%. Even though he missed two months of the season he still had a career high in
doubles, which tells me his power has more than the 14 HRs he ended the year with. The double digit
steals potential is a relic of the distant past. Even if the power does not return, he’s going to hit .300+,
100+/100+ with 2-5 SBs.
Neil Walker
Bats: B | Age: 27 | Team: Pirates | Position: 2B | RK: 10 (136)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AAA
24
189
6
25
26
10/1
16.4%
10.1%
.321
.394
.560
.954
.366
13.1%
2010
MLB
24
469
12
57
66
2/3
17.7%
7.2%
.296
.349
.462
.811
.340
9.5%
2011
MLB
25
662
12
76
83
9/6
16.9%
8.2%
.273
.334
.408
.742
.315
8.1%
2012
MLB
26
530
14
62
69
7/5
19.6%
8.9%
.280
.342
.426
.768
.326
12.1%
Walker enters the 2013 season at the magical age of 27, the start of his prime. Therefore, a lot of
fantasy owners may believe his power should improve dramatically. Playing in PNC Park, the second
worst ballparks for hitting home runs, suppresses his power potential. If he hits more than 19.5 HRs I’ll
be extremely surprised. That said, he is a great second-tier second baseman whose extremely consistent
and will bat .270, hit 15 HRs, 5 SBs, 80 runs and RBI.
Brett Wallace
Bats: L | Age: 26 | Team: Astros | Position: 1B | RK: 35 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2011
AAA
24
126
1
16
24
1/0
22.2%
11.9%
.356
.437
.481
.918
.456
-
2011
MLB
24
378
5
37
29
1/1
24.1%
9.5%
.259
.334
.369
.703
.339
9.4%
2012
AAA
25
351
16
54
57
0/1
24.8%
7.7%
.300
.379
.506
.885
.370
25.4%
2012
MLB
25
254
9
24
24
0/0
28.7%
7.1%
.253
.323
.424
.747
.331
19.2%
In a small sample size in 2012 Wallace (aka The Walrus) showed he could be an adequate first baseman
hitting .253/.323/.424 with 9 HRs. His ceiling may be 20-25 HRs, which is less than what fantasy owners
are looking for from their first baseman/corner infielder. However, he’s expected to bat third in the
lineup. If he hits there all year he’s almost assured of 85 RBI, which makes him a great play in deep
mixed leagues. Also, there’s chatter that Wallace could see time at third base, which would be a mistake
for the Astros, but a nice surprise for fantasy owners.
Jemile Weeks
Bats: B | Age: 26 | Team: Athletics | Position: 2B | RK: 39 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2010
AA
23
312
3
43
33
11/6
11.9%
9.0%
.267
.340
.403
.743
.298
4.3%
2011
AAA
24
217
3
30
22
10/4
14.7%
13.4%
.321
.417
.446
.863
.373
-
2011
MLB
24
437
2
50
36
22/11
14.2%
4.8%
.303
.340
.421
.761
.350
1.9%
2012
MLB
25
511
2
54
20
16/5
13.7%
9.8%
.221
.305
.304
.609
.256
1.9%
Weeks stunk last year. To begin the year his hitting suffered first, which then bled over to his poor
defense. To be fair, I didn’t believe in his .303 AVG because it looked like a function of his BABIP. What’s
funny is 14 months ago every player in the organization in the A’s organization was available to be
traded except for Weeks. Now it looks as though the A’s are giving up on Weeks, putting him third on
the second base depth chart.
Rickie Weeks
Bats: R | Age: 28 | Team: Brewers| Position: 2B | RK: 9 (95)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
162
9
28
24
2/2
24.1%
7.4%
.272
.340
.517
.857
.313
29.0%
2010
MLB
27
754
29
112
83
11/4
24.4%
10.1%
.269
.366
.464
.830
.332
24.2%
2011
MLB
28
515
20
77
49
9/2
20.8%
9.7%
.269
.350
.468
.818
.310
21.8%
2012
MLB
29
677
21
85
63
16/3
25.0%
10.9%
.230
.328
.400
.728
.285
18.3%
Weeks’ batting average was extremely low in 2012. This was primarily due an extremely poof first half of
the season where he put up a slash line of .199/.314/.343. After the all-star break he returned to being
Rickie Weeks, with a slash line of .261/.343/.457. Weeks’ injury history (only averaging 120 games the
past seven seasons) and low batting average make him a high risk (because of the high strikeout rate),
but if you can get him at the right price, you could have a monster on your hands. I bet a lot of fantasy
owners see the .230 AVG and he slips in drafts. If he falls past the 12th round, you have yourself a great
bargain.
Jayson Werth
Bats: R | Age: 34 | Team: Nationals | Position: OF | RK: 21 (61)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
676
36
98
99
20/3
23.1%
13.5%
.268
.373
.506
.879
.304
22.9%
2010
MLB
31
652
27
106
85
13/3
22.5%
12.6%
.296
.388
.532
.920
.352
17.9%
2011
MLB
32
649
20
69
58
19/3
24.7%
11.4%
.232
.330
.389
.719
.286
16.5%
2012
MLB
33
344
5
42
31
8/2
16.6%
12.2%
.300
.387
.440
.827
.356
6.6%
Despite missing half the year with wrist surgery, Werth put up fairly solid numbers: .300/.387/.440.
What’s most encouraging is he dramatically reduced his SO% to 16.6% and maintained his BB%. The
20/20 upside is still there, but he’s 34 and has only played more than 149 games three times in his
career.
Matt Wieters
Bats: B | Age: 27 | Team: Orioles | Position: C | RK: 5 (109)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
385
9
35
43
0/0
22.3%
7.3%
.288
.340
.412
.752
.356
10.7%
2010
MLB
24
502
11
37
55
0/1
18.7%
9.4%
.249
.319
.377
.696
.287
9.1%
2011
MLB
25
551
22
72
68
1/0
15.2%
8.7%
.262
.328
.450
.778
.276
14.8%
2012
MLB
26
593
23
67
83
3/0
18.9%
10.1%
.249
.329
.435
.764
.274
17.0%
Wieters should have another solid 20+ HR year with a slightly below AVG. When he bats left handed,
he’s usually facing a shift, which means his AVG will consistently be low (from the left side). When facing
the shift, I don’t know why players do not bunt against the shift, like Josh Reddick did, to stop teams
from putting the shift on against them. Oh well. One of these years he’s going to have a breakout year, I
just do not know when. If fantasy owners want to go the extra dollar or get him a round early, it’s
understandable.
Josh Willingham
Bats: R | Age: 34 | Team: Twins | Position: OF | RK: 25 (70)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
502
24
70
61
4/3
20.7%
12.2%
.260
.367
.496
.863
.289
22.4%
2010
MLB
31
450
16
54
56
8/0
18.9%
14.9%
.268
.389
.459
.848
.304
17.0%
2011
MLB
32
563
29
69
98
4/1
26.6%
9.9%
.246
.332
.477
.809
.287
23.9%
2012
MLB
33
615
35
85
110
3/2
22.9%
12.4%
.260
.366
.524
.890
.287
25.7%
Josh Willingham is one of the most underrated, consistent power hitters in the game. Willingham
provides 30+ HR potential with a batting average that won’t hurt you. His current ADP among
outfielders is 25, which is about right spot for him.
David Wright
Bats: R | Age: 30 | Team: Mets | Position: 3B | RK: 4 (20)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
26
618
10
88
72
27/9
22.7%
12.0%
.307
.390
.447
.837
.394
8.8%
2010
MLB
27
670
29
87
103
19/11
24.0%
10.3%
.283
.354
.503
.857
.335
21.0%
2011
MLB
28
447
14
60
61
13/2
21.7%
11.6%
.254
.345
.427
.772
.302
14.0%
2012
MLB
29
670
21
91
93
15/10
16.7%
12.1%
.306
.391
.492
.883
.347
13.5%
Unlike Chase Headley, Wright’s second half of the year saw a regression back to earth. That did not stop
Sandy Alderson from giving him a seven-year extension worth $122 million. He posted his lowest SB%
(60%) which has to be signal his 20+ SB potential no longer exists. If he steals 13 bags, be extremely
happy. The upside he showed after the 2008 season no longer exists. Instead, you have a quality third
baseman who will hit .290, hit 17-22 HRs, score and drive 90 runs.
Kevin Youkilis
Bats: R | Age: 34 | Team: Yankees | Position: 3B | RK: 23 (268)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
30
588
27
99
94
7/2
21.3%
13.1%
.305
.413
.548
.961
.359
18.2%
2010
MLB
31
435
19
77
62
4/1
15.4%
13.3%
.307
.411
.564
.975
.327
17.1%
2011
MLB
32
517
17
68
80
3/0
19.3%
13.2%
.258
.373
.459
.832
.296
15.5%
2012
MLB
33
509
19
72
60
0/0
21.2%
10.0%
.235
.336
.409
.745
.268
19.6%
Youkilis was extradited to the Chicago White Sox at the end of June and he continued to regress, batting
.236 with 15 HRs. His bat speed has decreased precipitously, which will make it hard for to square up on
plus velocity as well as leave him vulnerable to breaking balls. Supposing he gets a full season of playing
time, he can hit 20 HRs with a .245 AVG.
Chris Young
Bats: R | Age: 29 | Team: Athletics | Position: OF | RK: 79 (301)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
25
501
15
54
42
11/4
26.5%
11.8%
.212
.311
.400
.711
.268
15.5%
2010
MLB
26
664
27
94
91
28/7
0.6%
11.1%
.257
.341
.452
.793
.296
12.4%
2011
MLB
27
659
20
89
71
22/9
21.1%
12.1%
.236
.331
.420
.751
.275
13.9%
2012
MLB
28
363
14
36
41
8/3
21.8%
9.9%
.231
.311
.434
.745
.263
15.9%
Hampered by injuries to his shoulder and quadriceps, Young was only able to play 101 games. Prior to
2012, Young was a 20/20 player for two years in a row. Even though he’s vying for playing time with
Coco Crisp for primary center field duties, the job is his if he hits. Young is the superior defender and
better fits the offensive strategy Billy Beane has compiled; high strikeout guys who hit a lot of HRs. If
Young wins the job in spring training, a fantasy sleeper you have…not a typo; decided to talk like Yoda.
Delmon Young
Bats: R | Age: 27 | Team: Phillies | Position: OF | RK: 100 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
23
416
12
50
60
2/5
22.1%
2.9%
.284
.308
.425
.733
.338
13.2%
2010
MLB
24
613
21
77
112
5/4
13.2%
4.6%
.298
.333
.493
.826
.312
12.5%
2011
MLB
25
503
12
54
64
1/0
16.9%
4.6%
.268
.302
.393
.695
.302
10.9%
2012
MLB
26
608
18
54
74
0/2
18.4%
3.3%
.267
.296
.411
.707
.299
13.3%
Delmon Young stinks. He can’t play the field and swings at everything; he led the league in swings
outside of the strike zone. The Phillies gave him a one year deal to be their right fielder. Last year he was
relevant for fantasy owners because he batted fifth in a high powered offense and right behind Miguel
Cabrera and Prince Fielder all year. Ostensibly nothing is going to change because he’s expected to bat
fifth again behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. He has zero upside other than a number five outfielder
in a deep mixed league.
Michael Young
Bats: R | Age: 36 | Team: Phillies | Position: 3B, 1B, DH | RK: 18 (254)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
32
593
22
76
68
8/3
15.2%
7.9%
.322
.374
.518
.892
.351
18.0%
2010
MLB
33
718
21
99
91
4/2
16.0%
7.0%
.284
.330
.444
.774
.311
12.5%
2011
MLB
34
689
11
88
106
6/2
11.3%
6.8%
.338
.380
.474
.854
.367
7.8%
2012
MLB
35
651
8
79
67
2/2
10.8%
5.1%
.277
.312
.370
.682
.299
6.1%
Michael Young was unceremoniously traded to the Phillies in the offseason where he will be the
everyday third baseman. According to WAR (wins above replacement), Young was one of the worst
players last year. A lot of his negative WAR is due to his poor defense. But, does any of that matter for
fantasy? No. Do I think he’s a good real life player? No. He is extremely durable and if he hits second, he
will score a lot of runs. If fantasy owners draft him with the mindset he can hit .285, score 85+ runs with
10-14 HRs, he will not disappoint.
Ryan Zimmerman
Bats: R | Age: 28 | Team: Nationals | Position: 3B | RK: 7 (54)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
24
693
33
110
106
2/0
17.2%
10.4%
.292
.364
.525
.889
.310
21.4%
2010
MLB
25
603
25
85
85
4/1
16.3%
11.4%
.307
.388
.510
.898
.334
17.5%
2011
MLB
26
440
12
52
49
3/1
16.6%
9.3%
.289
.355
.443
.798
.326
14.3%
2012
MLB
27
641
25
93
95
5/2
18.1%
8.9%
.282
.346
.478
.824
.313
20.8%
When healthy, Zimmerman is a dynamic hitter, but health is a big question mark for him. Throughout
2012 he was marred by a right shoulder injury. Part of his treatment was taking cortisone shots; he
received at least four cortisone shots throughout the year. Before his first cortisone shot (small sample;
220 ABs) his stat line was .218/.283/.268. After he began taking cortisone shots his stat line in 345 ABs
was .316/.382/.571. I’m not implying those stats were aided by the cortisone shots, but his ability to stay
on the field concerns me a lot.
Ben Zobrist
Bats: B | Age: 32 | Team: Rays | Position: SS, 2B, OF | RK: 6 (45)
Year
LVL
AGE
PA
HR
R
RBI
SB/CS
SO%
BB%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
HR/FB
2009
MLB
28
599
27
91
91
17/6
17.4%
15.2%
.297
.405
.543
.948
.326
24.1%
2010
MLB
29
655
10
77
75
24/3
16.3%
14.0%
.238
.346
.353
.699
.273
7.7%
2011
MLB
30
674
20
99
91
19/6
19.0%
11.4%
.269
.353
.469
.822
.310
15.2%
2012
MLB
31
668
20
88
74
14/9
15.4%
14.5%
.270
.377
.471
.848
.296
16.0%
Zobrist’s greatest value will be his versatility, where he qualifies at shortstop, second base and outfield.
Not only did his stolen bases drop dramatically, his stolen base success rate was only 61%; the days of
20+ steals are over. Zobrist is projected to bat third for the Rays, which will allow plenty of opportunities
score and drive in runs. His power upside is no longer in the high 20’s but he should be good for 16-22
HRs.
Pitcher Profiles
Please make sure to read my scouting primer before reading my player profiles. Also, all the data comes
from Baseball Prospectus. The “RK” section reads as follows: RK: position rank (top 305 rank).
Brett Anderson
Throws: L | Age: 25 | Team: Athletics | Position: SP | RK: 49 (171)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
22
112.3
7
75
22
2.80
1.19
16.0%
4.7%
.294
75.4%
7.6%
21.5%
54.5%
2011
MLB
23
83.3
3
61
25
4.00
1.33
17.1%
7.0%
.306
73.0%
16.3%
18.6%
58.9%
2012
AAA
24
23.3
1
18
5
4.24
1.37
18.2%
5.1%
.324
76.6%
28.6%
18.7%
50.7%
2012
MLB
24
35
4
25
7
2.57
1.03
18.2%
5.1%
.272
73.0%
7.7%
12.5%
60.6%
Anderson looked great one year removed from TJ surgery posting a 2.57 ERA and striking out 18% of
batters. His upside is immense. It’s possible he could become a true ace, one of the ten best pitchers in
the game. However, it can take up to two years to fully regain command. I expect his season to mirror
Adam Wainwright’s, where he looked shakey during the first half, but started to revert to pre-surgery
form in the second half.
Chris Archer
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Rays | Position: SP | RK: 105 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AA
21
70
8
67
39
1.80
1.24
20.4%
11.9%
.275
81.2%
3.6%
26.9%
56.3%
2011
AA
22
134.3
8
118
80
4.42
1.61
19.3%
13.1%
.000
71.2%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2012
AAA
23
128
7
139
62
3.66
1.26
26.2%
11.7%
.293
71.4%
8.7%
21.4%
48.6%
2012
MLB
23
29.3
1
36
13
4.60
1.23
29.5%
10.7%
.290
61.0%
13.0%
31.9%
44.4%
In a brief stint in the majors Archer showed flashes of how good he could be and how effectively wild he
could be. He has plus fastball with plus-plus velocity and movement with average command. He throws
two sliders. The first slider is 86-87 that has good tilt and depth. He also throws a 81-82 slider that looks
more like a curveball than a slider. His changeup can flash average at times. Hopefully he begins the year
in the majors. If he does, he’ll be a set it and forget player because he’ll great a times and sometimes
he’ll throw some stinkers.
Bronson Arroyo
Throws: R | Age: 36 | Team: Reds | Position: SP | RK: 112 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
32
220.3
15
127
65
3.84
1.27
13.8%
7.0%
.265
76.5%
16.9%
25.3%
46.1%
2010
MLB
33
215.7
17
121
59
3.88
1.15
13.8%
6.7%
.239
74.4%
14.3%
29.1%
44.0%
2011
MLB
34
199
9
108
45
5.07
1.37
12.6%
5.3%
.278
74.4%
21.3%
31.0%
39.8%
2012
MLB
35
202
12
129
35
3.74
1.21
15.4%
4.2%
.286
76.7%
14.1%
27.7%
42.8%
When it was Arroyo’s turn to write a player profile I was prepared to write him off as maybe a low level
starter at best, but after doing some digging there are some things to like. For one, his 4.2% walk rate
was tied for the second lowest walk percentage of any qualified pitcher; Joe Blanton was also at 4.2%
and Cliff Lee was the lowest at 3.3%. If Arroyo pitched in a different home park, he would have more
upside, but he doesn’t. Expect a low four ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 120 Ks.
Homer Bailey
Throws: R | Age: 26 | Team: Reds | Position: SP | RK: 38 (146)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
113.3
8
86
52
4.53
1.47
17.3%
10.5%
.300
71.1%
10.9%
30.7%
42.7%
2010
MLB
24
109
4
100
40
4.46
1.37
21.5%
8.6%
.315
71.0%
12.5%
27.2%
44.3%
2011
MLB
25
132
9
106
33
4.43
1.28
18.9%
5.9%
.296
71.2%
15.8%
27.2%
41.5%
2012
MLB
26
208
13
168
52
3.68
1.24
19.2%
5.9%
.290
73.6%
14.5%
27.7%
46.2%
If you take away Bailey’s two worst months of the year (June and August), he had a 3.16 ERA, 7.64 K/9
and a 2.19 BB/9. Now, I totally understand by only highlighting his superior months can be extremely
misleading. I wanted to show that he has the ability to be a top 20 starter if puts it all together. For years
fantasy owners have waited for him to put up numbers indicative to the quality of his stuff. Will 2013 be
the year? He’s going 36th overall at Mock Draft Central, right behind Jeff Samardzija and ahead of Josh
Johnson, which is about right.
Scott Baker
Throws: R | Age: 31 | Team: Cubs | Position: SP | RK: 117 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2008
MLB
26
172.3
11
141
42
3.45
1.18
20.1%
6.0%
.284
78.7%
10.7%
36.2%
32.9%
2009
MLB
27
200
15
162
48
4.37
1.19
19.6%
5.8%
.276
70.5%
13.4%
34.0%
34.9%
2010
MLB
28
170.3
12
148
43
4.49
1.34
20.4%
5.9%
.323
73.0%
13.9%
31.2%
37.1%
2011
MLB
29
134.7
8
123
32
3.14
1.17
22.4%
5.8%
.297
79.4%
10.8%
35.6%
35.4%
Baker missed all of the 2012 season with an elbow strain that ultimately resulted in TJ Surgery at the
end of March. In 2011 he was on his way to having a breakout season, but it was halted by a strained
elbow. His biggest asset is the command of the strike zone because he only offers fringe average stuff.
He’s expected to be ready at the start of the year and if he is, I would expect a low four ERA with 150Ks.
Trevor Bauer
Throws: R | Age: 22 | Team: Indians | Position: SP | RK: 111 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
20
16.7
1
26
8
7.56
1.68
43.3%
13.3%
.333
58.8%
16.7%
34.3%
42.9%
2012
AA
21
48.3
7
60
26
1.68
1.22
34.1%
14.8%
.296
82.2%
4.3%
23.2%
48.5%
2012
AAA
21
82
5
97
35
2.85
1.33
28.4%
10.3%
.315
82.8%
13.6%
28.0%
45.5%
2012
MLB
21
16.3
1
17
13
6.06
1.66
22.1%
16.9%
.273
59.5%
15.4%
28.3%
47.8%
Last year he was one of the most hyped pitching prospects in the game. When he got called up he was
being traded for established pitchers such as Brandon McCarthy and Adam Wainwright. The fantasy
hype surrounding him was out of control. I watched all his major league starts and saw him in person
during the Triple-A playoffs in Sacramento. He has good stuff that can miss a ton of bats. His problem is
command. A lot of times he would lose control of the strike zone and wouldn’t be able to throw strikes. I
think he’s infatuated with the strikeout as he tends to nibble too much which lead to high pitch counts.
It’s hard to forget he just turned 22 years old and has a lot of development to go through before he’s a
finished product. In dynasty leagues he’s already owned in every league. As of late January it looks as
though he’ll start the year in the minors so he should only be taken as a late round flier in one year
leagues.
Brandon Beachy
Throws: R | Age: 26 | Team: Braves | Position: SP | RK: 131 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AA
23
158
12
155
23
2.85
1.16
23.1%
3.4%
.326
75.3%
7.0%
29.4%
44.4%
2011
AAA
24
148.3
12
155
16
3.22
1.03
38.5%
4.0%
.326
70.0%
10.1%
31.1%
40.2%
2011
MLB
24
26
1
15
4
3.81
1.23
13.6%
3.6%
.299
73.7%
8.0%
28.1%
34.8%
2012
MLB
25
190
13
137
36
3.74
1.28
17.3%
4.6%
.310
73.6%
13.1%
29.8%
39.6%
Beachy has electric stuff. When healthy, he can be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game.
What’s a shame was he again was unable to miss large amount of time with injury. In 2012 it was TJ
surgery. He’s not expected back until after the all-star break. Except for dynasty leagues he should not
be owned until we know more when he’s coming back. When guys come back from TJ it can take up to a
year to fully regain the velocity of his pitches and another year to regain the control. Even if he comes
back in August, he may only be 70% of what he was. He’ll be a big sleeper in 2014.
Josh Beckett
Throws: R | Age: 32 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP | RK: 51 (173)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
29
212.3
17
199
55
3.86
1.19
22.5%
6.2%
.290
71.6%
15.2%
26.4%
48.1%
2010
MLB
30
127.7
6
116
45
5.78
1.53
20.1%
7.8%
.338
65.3%
17.9%
27.5%
47.3%
2011
MLB
31
193
13
175
52
2.89
1.03
22.8%
6.8%
.245
80.0%
12.2%
32.4%
42.0%
2012
MLB
32
170.3
7
132
52
4.65
1.33
18.1%
7.1%
.294
69.4%
12.8%
30.2%
44.8%
After watching Beckett pitch in 2012, I feel very safe saying he’s not going to repeat his 2011 numbers.
There are three roadblocks why he will not repeat 2011. First, his fastball velocity has dropped two mph
since 2010. Second, when pitching out of the stretch he becomes very hittable; hitters had a .320 AVG
with men on-base compared to only .232 AVG with no one on-base. Third, it’s been three years since
he’s thrown over 200 innings. However, it’s possible he could revert back to the 2009 version where he
posted a 8.43 K/9 with a 3.86 ERA. He’s going from the AL to the NL and he gets to pitch in the NL West.
Chad Billingsley
Throws: R | Age: 28 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP | RK: 126 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
196.3
12
179
86
4.03
1.32
21.7%
10.4%
.292
71.0%
11.9%
26.0%
47.5%
2010
MLB
25
191.7
12
171
69
3.57
1.28
20.9%
8.4%
.301
71.0%
6.2%
22.8%
50.8%
2011
MLB
26
188
11
152
84
4.21
1.45
18.3%
10.1%
.306
69.9%
8.3%
28.6%
47.4%
2012
MLB
27
149.7
10
128
45
3.55
1.29
20.2%
7.1%
.308
72.3%
9.0%
26.5%
47.8%
Billingsley was having great bounce back year before being shut down with elbow soreness twice. Let’s
talk about the good first. He had a career low 2.71 BB/9 while continuing to miss bats (7.70 K/9). As of
January 8 it appears he’ll avoid TJ surgery and attempt to give it a go in 2013. Any time a pitcher has
elbow soreness and the remedy chosen is rest, like with Billingsley, rest is never the answer. Instead, TJ
surgery is almost a certainty, which means he could miss a lot of time in 2013.
Clay Buchholz
Throws: R | Age: 28 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SP | RK: 81 (293)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
92
7
68
36
4.21
1.38
17.0%
9.0%
.279
76.7%
17.8%
24.9%
53.9%
2010
MLB
25
173.7
17
120
67
2.33
1.20
16.9%
9.4%
.261
78.9%
7.4%
23.3%
52.0%
2011
MLB
26
82.7
6
60
31
3.48
1.29
17.0%
8.8%
.264
78.9%
13.0%
29.6%
51.2%
2012
MLB
27
189.3
11
129
64
4.56
1.33
16.1%
8.0%
.284
69.7%
15.9%
26.3%
49.4%
After missing three months of the season in 2011 with a stress fracture, Buchholz threw the most
innings he’s thrown his career (189 innings) in 2012. However, fantasy owners expecting an
improvement from his 2010 season were disappointed. When his career is over I’m very confident 2010
will be the best season of his career. There were some improvements as he has decreased his walk rate
year-over-year from a 3.52 BB/9 to 3.04 in 2012. The key with him will be the command of his curveball.
Last year his command was inconsistent. I have my doubts if he can put it all together. He has given up
five or more earned runs in 10 his 29 starts which tied for the second-most in baseball last year.
Mark Buehrle
Throws: L | Age: 34 | Team: White Sox | Position: SP | RK: 114 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
30
213.3
13
105
45
3.84
1.25
12.0%
5.1%
.282
74.7%
13.4%
28.0%
46.7%
2010
MLB
31
210.3
13
99
49
4.28
1.40
11.0%
5.5%
.313
70.2%
8.3%
27.3%
47.2%
2011
MLB
32
205.3
13
109
45
3.59
1.30
12.7%
5.2%
.294
73.3%
11.2%
26.8%
46.6%
2012
MLB
33
202.3
13
125
40
3.74
1.17
15.1%
4.8%
.270
74.8%
13.4%
29.3%
43.4%
Buehrle is optimizes the definition of the “meh” player. He doesn’t provide much value and doesn’t hurt
you. He’s a reliable innings eater who has averaged 200+ innings for the past twelve seasons. His below
average fastball could make him more susceptible to the home run in Toronto. Unless in an AL-only
league, drafting him doesn’t make a lot of sense because there’s zero upside to him; someone with his
fantasy value will always be available on the waiver wire.
Madison Bumgarner
Throws: L | Age: 23 | Team: Giants | Position: SP | RK: 21 (78)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
19
10
0
10
3
1.8
1.10
25.0%
7.5%
.240
109%
28.6%
25.9%
59.3%
2010
MLB
20
111
7
86
26
3.00
1.31
18.2%
5.5%
.314
81.7%
10.5%
29.5%
46.1%
2011
MLB
21
204.7
13
191
46
3.21
1.21
22.6%
5.5%
.322
72.4%
7.4%
26.8%
48.1%
2012
MLB
22
208.3
16
191
49
3.37
1.11
22.5%
5.8%
.276
73.5%
13.9%
27.4%
49.3%
Bumgarner is one of the rare potential top 10 fantasy starters who doesn’t have wipe out stuff. Instead,
he relies on deception and excellent command to play up his above average stuff. He was clearly gassed
in September and October posting a 5.70 ERA and 9.2% walk rate in 41.1 innings; this was also
evidenced by a decrease in his velocity at the end of the year; his velocity in October was 90.61 mph,
almost 2 mph lower than in 2010. He’s no surprise a sudden decrease in velocity as he was throwing in
the 80s at end of 2009. The velocity drop at the end of 2012 could have been due to the workload he’s
accumulated the past three seasons, averaging 214 innings a year or it could be a fluke occurrence. He’s
currently (3.14.13) going as the 11th starting pitcher in NFBC leagues, ahead of Yu Darvish, Adam
Wainwright, CC Sabathia; I’d rather have all of them instead of Bumgarner.
Bumgarner's Velocity 2010-12
93.5
93
92.5
92
91.5
91
90.5
90
Dylan Bundy
Throws: R | Age: 20 | Team: Orioles | Position: SP | RK: 115 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2012
A
19
30
1
40
2
0.00
0.23
40.4%
2.0%
.091
77.8%
0.0%
30.9%
50.9%
2012
A+
19
57
6
66
18
2.84
1.16
29.2%
8.0%
.314
78.3%
7.8%
45.1%
35.9%
2012
AA
19
16.7
2
13
8
3.24
1.32
18.3%
11.3%
.265
72.8%
10.0%
20.0%
46.0%
2012
MLB
19
1.7
0
0
1
0.00
1.18
0.0%
16.7%
.200
100%
0.0%
80.0%
20.0%
After only being one year removed from high school Bundy received a call up to the majors. His
potential is enormous as he can be a legitimate ace (there’s less than 10 in the big leagues). He’s a
power pitcher with an electric fastball in the upper 90s with a plus changeup and a 12-to-6 curveball
that could be plus-plus. Couple that with existing plus command and future grade of plus-plus, you could
have a monster on your hands. In one year leagues you do not want to draft him or stash him on your
bench because unless the Orioles make another playoff run, which they won’t, he’ll be refining his skills
in the minors. However, at the start of the 2014 season there’s more than 50% chance he’ll be in the
starting rotation.
A.J. Burnett
Throws: R | Age: 36 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP | RK: 40 (149)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
32
207
13
195
97
4.04
1.40
21.8%
10.8%
.296
75.8%
13.6%
31.0%
43.7%
2010
MLB
33
186.7
10
145
78
5.26
1.51
17.5%
9.4%
.319
68.8%
14.1%
30.2%
46.0%
2011
MLB
34
190.3
11
173
83
5.15
1.43
20.7%
9.9%
.294
70.0%
20.4%
26.5%
51.0%
2012
MLB
35
202.3
16
180
62
3.51
1.24
21.2%
7.3%
.294
74.1%
14.6%
20.5%
58.4%
Burnett became a more efficient and aggressive pitcher in 2012; using his fastball more often, regardless
of the count. His ground ball rate increased nearly eight percentage points. He accomplished this by
locating his curveball down and in to left handed hitters and locating his fastball on the inner half. Like
Scherzer, he has the random tendency to have a couple of blow up starts every year. When you draft
him, just set it and forget it.
Trevor Cahill
Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | RK: 61 (202)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
21
178.7
10
90
72
4.63
1.44
11.6%
9.3%
.272
72.6%
16.2%
27.5%
48.8%
2010
MLB
22
196.7
18
118
63
2.97
1.11
15.1%
8.0%
.236
76.5%
13.5%
23.7%
57.4%
2011
MLB
23
207.7
12
147
82
4.16
1.43
16.3%
9.1%
.302
72.8%
13.3%
21.5%
57.1%
2012
MLB
24
200
13
156
74
3.78
1.29
18.6%
8.8%
.289
71.4%
14.2%
18.8%
63.2%
Based on last year’s results, it’s no question the Diamondbacks got the lower end of the stick in the
Cahill, Jarrod Parker deal. However, Cahill wasn’t a slouch, posting a 3.78 ERA with 156 Ks. To say Cahill
is a ground ball pitcher is an understatement; he led the league in ground ball percentage (among
qualified pitchers). There is hope Cahill can improve in 2013 with the addition of either Didi Gregorius or
Cliff Pennington, who are both plus-plus defenders, to play shortstop. Also, Martin Prado is replacing
Ryan Roberts at third base, which is also a defensive upgrade. Cahill can provide 150Ks with a 3.50 ERA
and 1.25 WHIP.
Matt Cain
Throws: R | Age: 28 | Team: Giants | Position: SP | RK: 15 (58)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
217.7
14
171
73
2.89
1.18
19.3%
8.2%
.263
81.6%
10.4%
33.2%
41.2%
2010
MLB
25
223.3
13
177
61
3.14
1.08
19.8%
6.8%
.252
75.3%
9.6%
34.8%
37.3%
2011
MLB
26
221.7
12
179
63
2.88
1.08
19.7%
6.9%
.260
70.6%
4.6%
30.1%
44.3%
2012
MLB
27
219.3
16
193
51
2.79
1.04
22.0%
5.8%
.259
79.0%
10.7%
31.5%
40.8%
There’s a lot to like and not like about Cain. For the past four seasons he’s been one of the most
consistent pitchers in the game with an ERA a tick below 3.00 and 180 Ks. His fastball velocity has
dropped from 93.23 mph in 2009 to 91.84 in 2012. A decrease in velocity is common for most pitchers
as they age. Even though it’s a marginal decrease in his velocity it could have a dramatic impact on
Cain’s viability. He loves to pitch high in the zone with this fastball; he ranked 13th among starting
pitchers who threw the ball up in the zone. It’s easier to get away with those pitches if he’s throwing 9295, but if he’s throwing 90-93 those pitches become more hittable. If his fastball decreases even more
he’s a top 15 pitcher instead of a top 5.
Chris Capuano
Throws: L | Age: 34 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP | RK: 103 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2007
MLB
28
150
5
132
54
5.10
1.49
19.7%
8.1%
.330
68.1%
13.3%
31.6%
45.1%
2010
MLB
31
66
4
54
21
3.95
1.30
19.4%
7.6%
.290
78.0%
15.8%
28.2%
44.1%
2011
MLB
32
186
11
168
53
4.55
1.35
20.9%
6.6%
.311
72.0%
16.1%
28.9%
44.9%
2012
MLB
33
198.3
12
162
54
3.72
1.22
19.8%
6.6%
.284
73.2%
14.2%
29.4%
42.6%
Last year was the third year in a row Capuano was able to lower his BB/9 year-over-year. With two TJ
surgeries under his belt, a repeat of injury will be more of a concern than most other pitchers, but he
pitches in a great pitchers park and should have a better offense scoring more runs on his behalf. At the
end of the day he’s a finesse pitcher who relies on deception and hitting his spots. If he can’t do either
one, he gets hit hard.
Chris Carpenter
Throws: R | Age: 37 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP | RK: N/A (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
34
192.7
17
144
38
2.24
1.01
19.2%
5.1%
.269
79.5%
6.4%
19.6%
56.9%
2010
MLB
35
235
16
179
63
3.22
1.18
18.5%
6.5%
.278
73.3%
11.5%
25.6%
52.1%
2011
MLB
36
237.3
11
191
55
3.45
1.26
19.2%
5.5%
.312
73.2%
9.5%
22.6%
47.9%
2012
MLB
37
17
0
12
3
3.71
1.12
16.7%
4.2%
.264
76.9%
11.8%
30.9%
43.6%
Carpenter will miss the entire 2013 season with an injury. This is what I wrote before the news came out
about Carpenter missing the entire 2013 season in case you’re interested. “In his career Carpenter has
had nine surgical procedures to his pitching arm, including five to his elbow and four to his shoulder. He
missed most of 2012 to correct a shoulder condition known as thoracic outlet syndrome, which caused
numbness down his right arm and hand. It’s reported his velocity has improved and his command is on
its way. He’s someone you’ll be able to grab at the end of your drafts that can provide top 25 results.“
Andrew Cashner
Throws: R | Age: 26 | Team: Padres | Position: SP | RK: 58 (199)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
MLB
24
10.7
0
8
4
1.69
0.65
20.5%
10.3%
.077
89.3%
11.1%
33.3%
55.6%
2012
AA
25
14.3
2
22
3
1.88
0.91
39.3%
5.4%
.345
80.0%
0.0%
34.5%
51.7%
2012
AAA
25
9
0
8
2
3.00
1.11
22.2%
5.6%
.308
70.0%
0.0%
18.5%
55.6%
2012
MLB
25
46.3
3
52
19
4.27
1.32
26.5%
9.7%
.311
70.9%
17.9%
22.6%
55.6%
There’s no question that when Cashner is healthy he can be one of the best pitchers in the game. His
fastball averaged 98 mph and can max out at 102 mph. His slider is his out pitch and generates a ton of
strikeouts. His changeup is fringe average that plays up because of the fastball. The biggest concern is
health. The most innings he’s ever thrown in his professional career is 100 innings. In December he had
surgery to repair a lacerated tendon in his right thumb after a friend stabbed him in the thumb in a
hunting accident. As of March 7th he hasn’t made a start in Spring Training yet. Cashner is the definition
of the word lottery ticket.
Jhoulys Chacin
Throws: R | Age: 26 | Team: Rockies | Position: SP | RK: 95 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
22
137.3
9
138
61
3.28
1.27
23.7%
10.5%
.285
70.6%
11.4%
23.4%
47.3%
2011
MLB
23
194
11
150
87
3.62
1.31
18.1%
10.5%
.262
74.5%
14.7%
23.2%
56.7%
2012
AAA
24
13.7
1
5
5
2.63
1.09
9.1%
9.1%
.205
80.9%
7.7%
28.9%
62.2%
2012
MLB
24
69
3
45
32
4.43
1.62
14.3%
10.2%
.311
79.0%
14.7%
28.9%
39.6%
After two solid years Chacin looked to be ready for a breakout season. Instead, he got hit hard in his first
five starts posting a 7.30 ERA. After his fifth start he was on the DL for four months with a pectoral
injury. After he came off the DL in August, he looked a lot better posting a 2.84 ERA, 4.71 K/9 and 3.48
BB/9. Even though he got a little lucky with the ERA, he was rusty, missing the location with his fastball.
The most important thing is the velocity of all his pitches were the same as they were in 2011. He still
walks to many hitters to be a sleeper, but he’s worth a pickup in the later rounds.
Aroldis Chapman
Throws: L | Age: 25 | Team: Reds | Position: SP | RK: 48 (170)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
23
7.3
1
11
6
6.14
1.51
35.5%
19.4%
.000
62.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
AAA
23
5.7
0
9
2
11.12
1.93
31.0%
6.9%
.500
36.4%
0.0%
22.2%
44.4%
2011
MLB
23
50
4
71
41
3.60
1.30
34.3%
19.8%
.242
71.7%
8.7%
24.7%
53.8%
2012
MLB
24
71.7
5
122
23
1.51
0.81
44.2%
8.3%
.252
86.9%
11.1%
28.1%
37.5%
Chapman’s numbers speak for themselves. To say anything other than he was dominant would be
idiotic. However, he’s going to enter 2013 as a starting pitcher, not a reliever. I have a lot hesitation
from a fantasy perspective. 1) His fastball is fast, so fast it averaged 98 mph and topped at 102.7.
However, he’ll have to throw between 94-96 now he’s a starter. He can still be very effective even at a
lower speed, but it’s a minor mark against him. 2) As a reliever he didn’t have to utilize his secondary
pitches (slider and changeup) at all; throwing them a combined 18.4% of the time. 3) The most innings
he’s thrown in his life is 118, back in 2009. He’ll likely throw no more than 165 innings if he is a starter all
year. 4) Dusty Baker wants him as a closer. I know the Reds signed Jonathan Broxton to be their closer,
but Broxton’s not very good and it’s only a matter time Baker calls on Chapman.
Wei-Yin Chen
Throws: L | Age: 27 | Team: Orioles | Position: SP | RK: 100 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
npb
23
164
8
146
40
1.54
0.93
22.7%
6.2%
0.000
87.3%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2010
npb
24
188
13
153
49
2.87
1.14
19.8%
6.3%
0.000
82.6%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
npb
25
164.7
8
94
31
2.68
1.03
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2012
MLB
26
192.7
12
154
57
4.02
1.26
18.8%
7.0%
0.274
72.8%
13.9%
34.6%
38.7%
If I had three guesses before the 2012 season who the “ace” of the Orioles would be, there’s no way I
would have picked Chen. Chen was the only Orioles starter to hold down his spot in the rotation the
entire year. Chen, a fly ball pitcher, relies on command and control to generate outs because his stuff is
average. He’s an innings eater with little upside.
Alex Cobb
Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Angels | Position: SP | RK: 73 (221)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AAA
23
67.3
5
70
16
1.87
1.14
26.5%
6.1%
.000
81.7%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
23
52.7
3
37
21
3.42
1.33
16.5%
9.4%
.284
74.9%
8.3%
21.8%
54.5%
2012
AAA
24
41.3
1
44
18
4.14
1.50
26.5%
10.8%
.339
68.7%
4.5%
20.0%
56.4%
2012
MLB
24
136.3
11
106
40
4.03
1.25
18.6%
7.0%
.295
68.5%
14.5%
18.4%
60.1%
It appears as though Cobb and Archer are primed to battle for the fifth spot in the Rays rotation, so keep
an eye on that. Cobb put up really solid numbers striking out nearly 19% of hitters with a 4.03 ERA. Even
though he put up impressive strikeout numbers in the minors, the numbers can be deceiving because he
doesn’t have over powering stuff. He has a low 90s fastball with a two-seam fastball, plus changeup and
big breaking curveball. In addition he has plus command, which allows his pitches to play up. Among
pitchers who pitched at 130 innings, he was third in ground ball percentage. His strike out rate will
decrease, but he’ll generate a lot of ground ball outs. He’s not sexy but he’s the perfect pitcher to fill out
your rotation.
Bartolo Colon
Throws: R | Age: 40 | Team: Athletics | Position: SP | RK: 84 (296)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2008
MLB
35
39
4
27
10
3.92
1.38
15.6%
5.8%
.302
67.3%
13.5%
27.6%
42.5%
2009
MLB
36
62.3
3
38
21
4.19
1.44
13.8%
7.6%
.277
67.8%
19.4%
31.3%
47.7%
2011
MLB
38
164.3
8
135
40
4.00
1.29
19.5%
5.8%
.305
70.0%
13.6%
29.8%
45.2%
2012
MLB
39
152.3
10
91
23
3.43
1.21
14.3%
3.6%
.286
76.3%
11.9%
27.4%
47.1%
Despite testing positive for testosterone and receiving a 50 game suspension, Colon got a one million
raise from the Athletics. There’s not a question in my mind the testosterone improved his performance
the past two seasons. In 2009 his fastball velocity was 90.98 mph. In 2008 it was 93.63. In 2012 it was
92.47. Other than Cliff Lee, Colon threw the highest percentage of strikes of any pitcher with at least 150
innings. If his velocity comes back to the levels it was in 2012, I’ll pick him up.
Johnny Cueto
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
171.3
11
132
61
4.41
1.36
17.8%
8.2%
.291
73.6%
15.1%
29.8%
42.9%
2010
MLB
24
185.7
12
138
56
3.64
1.28
17.7%
7.2%
.290
76.1%
11.5%
28.5%
43.9%
2011
MLB
25
156
9
104
47
2.31
1.09
16.5%
7.4%
.249
76.4%
7.6%
22.3%
55.4%
2012
MLB
26
217
19
170
49
2.78
1.17
19.1%
5.5%
.296
78.8%
9.4%
24.2%
50.0%
Even though his 7.05 K/9 looks about the same as it was the past four years, he actually struck out a
larger percentage of hitters (19%) since his 2008 season. Also, he posted the lowest walk rate of his
career (5.5%). So he’s striking more guys out, walking fewer hitters and is generating ground balls 50%
of the time. It’s no surprise he was a top 10 fantasy pitcher last year. He was lucky with the LOB% so a
regression should come, but this is the two years in a row he should’ve had a higher ERA than what he
actually had. He’s going as the 19th starting pitcher, which is about right.
John Danks
Throws: L | Age: 28 | Team: White Sox | Position: SP | RK: 70 (218)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
200.3
13
149
73
3.77
1.28
17.8%
8.7%
.267
77.6%
16.5%
27.8%
46.1%
2010
MLB
25
213
15
162
70
3.72
1.22
18.5%
8.0%
.274
71.5%
9.7%
28.9%
46.2%
2011
MLB
26
170.3
8
135
46
4.33
1.34
18.5%
6.3%
.313
70.1%
13.6%
25.9%
45.7%
2012
MLB
27
53.7
3
30
23
5.70
1.49
12.6%
9.7%
.282
64.6%
13.7%
27.7%
45.7%
I consider 2012 a lost season for Danks, who missed the entire season (after nine bad starts) with
shoulder surgery. I’m not looking at any of stats in 2012 because I believe he was pitching at less than
100% health. He should be done with rehab in time for spring training. In 2011 bad luck masked what
was an overall good year. He’s an above average pitcher who will most likely be drafted as an average to
poor pitcher.
Yu Darvish
Throws: R | Age: 26 | Team: Rangers | Position: SP | RK: 8 (37)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
npb
22
182
15
167
45
1.73
0.90
23.8%
6.4%
.000
85.0%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2010
npb
23
202
12
222
47
1.78
1.01
27.6%
5.8%
.000
80.0%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
nbp
24
232
18
276
36
1.44
0.83
-
-
.000
-
-
-
-
2012
MLB
25
191.3
16
221
89
3.90
1.28
27.1%
10.9%
.295
70.5%
11.2%
25.2%
47.7%
Darvish’s season mirrored the movie Eraserhead, really exciting in the beginning then meanders in the
middle only to finish in a flurry. The question about Darvish wasn’t about the quality of his stuff, but
rather can he harness that stuff to get major league hitters out consistently. He spent most of the
season nibbling the strike zone and throwing balls outside the zone, hoping batters would chase, which
is evidenced his by the 4.19 BB/9. However, in September he showed us a glimpse of how good he can
really be, posting a 2.21 ERA with 39 Ks and a 1.74 BB/9 during the month of September (36 innings). It’s
very possible he can the CY Young.
Wade Davis
Throws: R | Age: 27 | Team: Royals | Position: SP | RK: 78 (282)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
36.3
2
36
13
3.72
1.27
24.0%
8.7%
.316
62.5%
9.1%
22.0%
40.0%
2010
MLB
24
168
12
113
62
4.07
1.35
15.7%
8.6%
.272
78.1%
13.1%
33.8%
39.9%
2011
MLB
25
184
11
105
63
4.45
1.38
13.2%
7.9%
.280
72.1%
11.1%
33.4%
38.1%
2012
MLB
26
70.3
3
87
29
2.43
1.10
30.6%
10.2%
.264
81.4%
9.6%
31.0%
39.9%
Davis is the key to making the trading of Wil Myers worthwhile. An average starter from 2010-11, the
Rays moved him to long relief where he dominated and missed a ton of bats (11.13 K/9). He throws a
fastball 94-96, a cutter 91-94, a curveball that is more of a show me pitch and an average slider. He has
the talent and arm to become a number two starter if he puts it everything comes together, but I have
my doubts. Relievers have different mentalities compared to starters. For example, a reliever knows
he’ll pitch at most two innings so he doesn’t have to worry about sequencing and setting up his
secondary pitches. Instead, relievers can grip it and rip it in short bursts, which is what Davis did last
year.
Ryan Dempster
Throws: R | Age: 35 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SP | RK: 62 (203)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
32
200
11
172
65
3.65
1.31
20.4%
7.7%
.302
73.2%
12.9%
28.5%
49.2%
2010
MLB
33
215.3
15
208
86
3.85
1.32
22.7%
9.4%
.294
71.0%
13.9%
29.3%
49.6%
2011
MLB
34
202.3
10
191
82
4.80
1.45
21.7%
9.3%
.324
70.4%
15.0%
25.3%
46.0%
2012
MLB
35
173
12
153
52
3.38
1.20
21.3%
7.3%
.277
75.7%
13.8%
27.0%
45.0%
During the offseason Dempster signed a two-year, $26.5 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. Before
being traded to the Rangers at the trading deadline, he was one of the best fantasy pitchers in the game
with a 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. After being traded his ERA skyrocketed to 5.09 along with a 1.43 WHIP.
Neither time frame accurately reflects his true talent. Dempster has good stuff, which means he can
miss bats. He throws the slider, his primary pitch, down and away to right handed hitters. He uses his
split changeup, which has good glove side movement, against left handed hitters. If he can keep his
fastball out of the middle of the zone he should put up a low four ERA, a 1.35 WHIP with 160+ Ks.
Ross Detwiler
Throws: L | Age: 26 | Team: Nationals| Position: SP | RK: 72 (220)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
24
29.7
1
17
14
4.25
1.62
12.6%
10.4%
0.296
64.3%
19.2%
25.2%
43.7%
2011
AAA
25
87.3
6
63
32
4.53
1.49
23.0%
11.7%
0.351
66.2%
7.5%
25.6%
52.2%
2011
MLB
25
66
4
41
20
3.00
1.26
14.8%
7.2%
0.272
78.7%
12.3%
26.8%
46.0%
2012
MLB
26
164.3
10
105
52
3.40
1.22
15.3%
7.6%
0.263
70.8%
11.9%
24.0%
52.5%
Ross Detwiler isn’t supremely talented, but he can throw six innings a game and keep a team in the
game. Even though he doesn’t have miss bat stuff, he plays for one of the best teams in the National
League and could provide a healthy number of wins. He was a little lucky with his BABIP so a regression
is likely to occur.
Scott Diamond
Throws: L | Age: 26 | Team: Twins | Position: SP | RK: 122 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AAA
24
123
4
90
36
5.56
1.58
24.9%
9.9%
.342
61.2%
15.9%
25.1%
50.5%
2011
MLB
24
39
1
19
17
5.08
1.74
10.5%
9.4%
.338
67.4%
6.8%
30.3%
47.6%
2012
AAA
25
34.7
4
26
7
2.60
1.21
18.4%
5.0%
.321
74.5%
4.2%
22.4%
48.6%
2012
MLB
25
173
12
90
31
3.54
1.24
12.6%
4.3%
.292
73.3%
12.9%
22.4%
54.2%
Diamond is a strike throwing lefty who relies on command to get outs via the ground ball. He finished
tenth in the majors in with a 53.4% ground ball percentage. He throws a slider and changeup in addition
to the fastball. His throw the fastball at 90 that’s fairly straight. His secondary pitches are fringe average.
He’ll be very BABIP dependent because he’ll be relying on his defense and luck.
R.A. Dickey
Throws: R | Age: 38 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: SP | RK: 9 (39)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
34
64.3
1
42
30
4.62
1.62
14.3%
10.2%
.316
76.4%
12.7%
28.9%
47.7%
2010
MLB
35
174.3
11
104
42
2.84
1.19
14.6%
5.9%
.276
77.3%
10.4%
22.2%
55.6%
2011
MLB
36
208.7
8
134
54
3.28
1.23
15.3%
6.2%
.278
75.1%
10.1%
26.1%
52.6%
2012
MLB
37
233.7
20
230
54
2.73
1.05
24.8%
5.8%
.275
79.9%
14.1%
26.6%
47.7%
A show of hands of the people who thought Dickey would be a top 10 finisher for the CY Young last offseason would result in an empty room. The question for fantasy owners is can he repeat his 2012
season? Most people would consider Alex Anthopoulos as a very smart general manager. He believes
Dickey can, evidenced by the top prospects he traded to acquire Dickey. For the past three seasons
Dickey has a 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP. Last year his K/9 increased 53% and the velocity of his knuckleball has
increased year-over-year for the past five years. He’s going to play the AL so his numbers are going to
take a hit, but either way he’s a top ten fantasy pitcher.
Felix Doubront
Throws: L | Age: 25 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SP | RK: 90 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
22
25
2
23
10
4.32
1.48
20.4%
8.8%
.316
65.1%
11.5%
32.9%
45.6%
2011
AAA
23
70.3
2
61
26
4.22
1.29
30.0%
12.8%
.270
70.9%
27.8%
24.5%
47.6%
2011
MLB
23
10.3
0
6
8
6.10
1.94
12.8%
17.0%
.344
69.9%
9.1%
33.3%
45.5%
2012
MLB
24
161
11
167
71
4.86
1.45
23.6%
10.0%
.313
70.0%
19.0%
27.1%
44.5%
Doubront’s strikeout rate is great, but it comes at the expense of a high walk rate. He is the type of
pitcher I would tag as effectively wild; the stuff is great, but he has no idea where it’s going. His HR/FB
rate was insanely high, but it doesn’t mean a regression is going to happen; he misses with his location a
lot which causes him to be homer prone. With a home ERA of 5.33 and a road ERA 4.37 suggests he has
some value as a stream option in the right matchup, but since he has a high propensity giving up the
long ball scares me; the last thing I want is for him to go 2 innings and give up 6+ runs.
Nathan Eovaldi
Throws: R | Age: 23 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP | RK: 127 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
21
103
6
99
46
2.62
1.18
23.2%
10.8%
.000
69.3%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
21
34.7
1
23
20
3.63
1.38
15.8%
13.7%
.263
76.3%
6.9%
28.2%
45.6%
2012
AA
22
35
2
30
13
3.09
1.23
24.6%
10.7%
.296
78.2%
13.3%
18.1%
61.4%
2012
MLB
22
119.3
4
78
47
4.30
1.51
14.8%
8.9%
.317
73.4%
9.6%
26.1%
46.7%
Eovaldi is the perfect example of why fantasy owners should not scout a box score. According to his final
year totals, it looks as though he had a fringe average year with a 5.88 K/9 and 4.30 ERA. He was a little
lucky with his 73.4% LOB% and 8.1% HR/FB rate, but I want to focus on his pitches. He primarily throws
a fastball, slider and curveball. Lefties had a slash line of .318/.381/.464. Will there be an improvement
next year? Highly unlikely because his curveball and slider do not have the movement necessary to get
lefties out; both pitches break right in the middle of the plate to left handed hitters, which is where the
fat part of the bat goes through the zone.
Marco Estrada
Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Brewers | Position: SP | RK: 42 (152)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AAA
26
40
1
33
11
3.15
1.03
20.9%
7.0%
.257
65.7%
2.7%
32.5%
42.1%
2010
MLB
26
11.3
0
13
6
9.53
1.77
22.4%
10.3%
.314
47.6%
23.1%
34.2%
31.6%
2011
MLB
27
92.7
4
88
29
4.08
1.21
23.1%
7.6%
.287
70.0%
13.1%
32.1%
42.7%
2012
MLB
28
138.3
5
143
29
3.64
1.14
25.4%
5.2%
.298
72.3%
14.8%
31.2%
36.8%
Estrada started the year as the long reliever in the bullpen, but quickly found himself becoming the
second best starter for the Brewers with a 9.30 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9. If he can find a way to get his
changeup to generate more outs against lefties the sky would be the limit. He was very homer prone the
first four months of the season, giving up 19 HRs. He was homer prone because his fastball sits 90-91
mph, which means he can’t miss with his location; because if he does a lot of them are going to ending
up in the bleachers. He’s currently going as the 69th starting pitcher at Mock Draft Central, which is a
tremendous value.
Michael Fiers
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
26
61.3
5
63
14
2.64
0.91
70.8%
15.7%
.311
76.8%
36.8%
30.2%
50.8%
2011
AAA
26
64.7
8
69
22
1.11
0.97
47.3%
15.1%
.217
79.5%
12.5%
34.0%
43.6%
2012
AAA
27
55
1
49
18
4.42
1.22
21.6%
7.9%
.278
68.2%
12.5%
30.4%
42.4%
2012
MLB
27
127.7
9
135
36
3.74
1.26
25.0%
6.7%
.319
73.2%
10.9%
29.9%
34.8%
When I saw Fiers’ 25% strikeout rate I was intrigued, but then I saw his fastball sits between 88-90 mph
(below average) and wondered how he was able to strike out so many hitters. Nathaniel Stoltz at
Beyond the Box Score wrote a fabulous article about why he’s been so good. The easiest comp I have is
Josh Collmenter, someone with fringe average stuff that relies on deception to get outs. Collmenter got
lucky in his first go-round in the league but eventually got figured out and started getting lit up. Is this
the fate for Fiers? Scouts say you need to have plus velocity on the fastball to be at least a number three
starter, but there are exceptions to every rule. Draft him for his upside, but if he gets lit, drop him.
Doug Fister
Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Tigers | Position: SP | RK: 31 (113)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
61
3
36
15
4.13
1.28
14.1%
5.9%
.271
78.9%
16.9%
32.2%
40.6%
2010
MLB
26
171
6
93
32
4.11
1.28
12.9%
4.4%
.302
67.7%
9.2%
24.1%
46.9%
2011
MLB
27
216.3
11
146
37
2.83
1.06
16.7%
4.2%
.272
73.3%
6.4%
25.3%
47.8%
2012
MLB
28
161.7
10
137
37
3.45
1.19
20.4%
5.5%
.296
70.9%
13.6%
22.4%
53.3%
Despite two DL trips for strains in left ribcage the fantasy owners who took a chance on Fister didn’t get
the ace potential 2011 showed, but instead got a very solid pitcher with a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Fister is ground ball pitcher (14th in GB/FB ratio) and subsequently relies on his defense to generate outs
on his behalf. He’ll pitch in front of the same defensive as last year, Omar Infante was acquired at the
trade deadline, but he’s only a slight upgrade, so expect more of the same as last year.
Gavin Floyd
Throws: R | Age: 30 | Team: White Sox | Position: SP | RK: 101 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
26
193
11
163
59
4.06
1.23
20.5%
7.4%
.284
69.7%
13.7%
26.7%
45.9%
2010
MLB
27
187.3
10
151
58
4.08
1.37
18.9%
7.3%
.325
70.3%
9.4%
25.6%
50.4%
2011
MLB
28
193.7
12
151
45
4.37
1.16
18.9%
5.6%
.278
67.7%
13.1%
28.4%
45.8%
2012
MLB
29
168
12
144
63
4.29
1.36
19.9%
8.7%
.299
74.9%
16.1%
27.2%
47.7%
Floyd, although unspectacular, has been a consistent pitcher the past five years. In 2011 he had the best
walk rate of his career, which lead to optimism that he could be the last starting pitcher in a 12 team
mixed league. However, last year he reverted back to the lack of control he showed the previous three
years. During the past two seasons he’s had 14 starts where he’s given up five earned runs (seven each
year) so beware if you’re going to stream him; if you’re in a Roto league you have to keep him in your
lineup and never look back.
Yovani Gallardo
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
185.7
13
204
94
3.73
1.31
25.7%
11.9%
.275
77.9%
14.3%
30.1%
46.6%
2010
MLB
24
185
14
200
75
3.84
1.37
24.9%
9.3%
.324
69.8%
10.0%
22.8%
44.7%
2011
MLB
25
207.3
17
207
59
3.52
1.22
23.9%
6.8%
.291
74.8%
15.7%
28.6%
48.2%
2012
MLB
26
204
16
204
81
3.66
1.30
23.7%
9.4%
.290
78.4%
16.7%
27.0%
49.3%
What’s not to love about Gallardo? For four years in a row he’s posted at least 200 Ks, a sub 3.84 ERA
with an average of 15 wins. He reverted back to the command problems he displayed for all his pitches
during the pre-2011 years with a BB/9 of 3.57. He’s only shown above average command once so I don’t
envision the ace potential his stuff suggests. As of January 26 he’s going as the 22nd starting pitcher at
Mock Draft Central, which is a huge bargain.
Jaime Garcia
Throws: L | Age: 26 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP | RK: 102 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
AAA
22
21
2
22
9
3.86
1.24
16.9%
6.9%
.208
66.7%
20.0%
30.5%
62.2%
2010
MLB
23
163.3
13
132
64
2.70
1.32
19.0%
9.2%
.292
75.0%
10.1%
17.9%
56.7%
2011
MLB
24
194.7
13
156
50
3.56
1.32
18.9%
6.1%
.318
66.8%
11.4%
21.3%
54.7%
2012
MLB
25
121.7
7
98
30
3.92
1.36
19.0%
5.8%
.339
69.1%
8.6%
20.9%
56.4%
Garcia missed two months of the year with a shoulder tightness and came back even better, posting a
3.27 ERA, 7.69 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9. His extremely high .339 BABIP made his final numbers look far worse
than what they could have been. The biggest question about Garcia is whether he’ll play the entire
season. He saw four surgeons this offseason and three out four recommended surgery. If I were a
betting man, I would say he misses time this year.
Matt Garza
Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Cubs | Position: SP | RK: 87 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
203
8
189
79
3.95
1.26
22.0%
9.2%
.273
75.0%
14.4%
29.8%
39.8%
2010
MLB
26
204.7
15
150
63
3.91
1.25
17.5%
7.4%
.272
75.5%
12.8%
34.5%
36.6%
2011
MLB
27
198
10
197
63
3.32
1.26
23.5%
7.5%
.306
69.7%
11.3%
21.5%
48.5%
2012
MLB
28
103.7
5
96
32
3.91
1.18
22.6%
7.5%
.271
74.3%
20.0%
25.6%
50.5%
Garza was having a sub-par year before being shut down indefinitely with a stress fracture in his elbow.
From what I’ve read it looks as though he was pitching hurt for a majority of the season so I don’t put a
lot of weight on the 2012 numbers. The biggest difference was his fastball command; his strike
percentage dropped three percentage points. The Cubs want Garza to pitch well and be healthy in 2013
so they can trade him at the trade deadline, so he could become more valuable to fantasy owners
because he’ll be playing for a better team.
Dillon Gee
Throws: R | Age: 27 | Team: Mets | Position: SP | RK: 91 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
24
33
2
17
15
2.18
1.21
12.5%
11.0%
.225
80.6%
6.5%
29.8%
49.0%
2011
AAA
25
11.7
1
8
5
4.63
1.03
30.8%
19.2%
.158
43.1%
33.3%
15.8%
52.6%
2011
MLB
25
160.7
13
114
71
4.43
1.38
16.1%
10.1%
.270
71.5%
13.6%
26.0%
49.6%
2012
MLB
26
109.7
6
97
29
4.10
1.25
21.0%
6.3%
.302
68.9%
16.2%
22.4%
51.7%
Gee was an unheralded prospect coming up through the minors, having an OFP (overall future
projection) as dependable innings eater. However, his fastball velocity and his strikeout rate (not
surprisingly) has increased year over year the past three years. What’s most important his whiff rate
increased from 21.9% in 2011 to 25.3% in 2012; on top of all that he was to significantly decrease his
walk rate. His fastball sits between 90-91 mph so he’s not overpowering. Instead, he relies on command
and control of a plus changeup and a fringe average curveball and slider. He missed half of the 2012
season with a blood clot, but he appears healthy and would be a great backend pitcher in deep mixed
leagues.
Gio Gonzalez
Throws: L | Age: 27 | Team: Nationals | Position: SP | RK: 11 (46)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
98.7
6
109
56
5.75
1.71
24.0%
12.3%
.360
67.8%
16.3%
29.8%
46.7%
2010
MLB
24
200.7
15
171
92
3.23
1.31
20.1%
10.8%
.274
78.0%
10.5%
24.5%
50.7%
2011
MLB
25
202
16
197
91
3.12
1.32
22.8%
10.5%
.287
77.1%
11.4%
26.2%
48.0%
2012
MLB
26
199.3
21
207
76
2.89
1.13
25.2%
9.2%
.267
74.1%
7.3%
22.9%
50.6%
Pitchers moving from the AL to the NL usually receive a 5-6% statical boost in their stats because they’re
facing pitchers instead of a DH, but Gio Gonzalez saw his strikeout rate increase 10.5% and walk
percentage decrease 12%. His BABIP of .267 and a 5.8% HR/FB are certain to regress. However, if he can
continue to lower his walk rates, and it looks like he will, the regression of the two previously stated
metrics will have less effect.
Zack Greinke
Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP | RK: 23 (86)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
229.3
16
242
51
2.16
1.07
26.4%
5.6%
.303
79.3%
5.6%
31.6%
41.1%
2010
MLB
26
220
10
181
55
4.17
1.25
19.7%
6.0%
.306
65.3%
9.8%
27.1%
47.0%
2011
MLB
27
171.7
16
201
45
3.83
1.20
28.1%
6.3%
.319
69.8%
16.2%
25.1%
49.1%
2012
MLB
28
212.3
15
200
54
3.48
1.20
23.0%
6.2%
.306
74.5%
11.9%
24.6%
51.1%
The Dodgers gave Greinke, the best free agent pitcher on the market, a six-year, $147 million contract
this offseason. The Dodgers will now have the best Number 2 pitcher in the game who has an upside to
be a true ace. Going from the bam box in Milwaukee to the pitcher friendly confines of Los Angeles
should lower his HF/FB to the levels he posted with the Royals. The social anxiety disorder doesn’t mean
anything and definitely doesn’t hinder his ability to play in a big market.
A.J. Griffin
Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Athletics | Position: SP | RK: 121 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
23
32
2
20
11
6.47
1.56
13.7%
7.5%
.000
64.2%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2012
AA
24
43.3
3
44
7
2.49
0.88
29.9%
4.8%
.250
80.8%
11.4%
33.7%
43.3%
2012
AAA
24
58.7
4
47
11
3.07
1.01
20.0%
4.7%
.259
61.2%
5.8%
30.1%
40.5%
2012
MLB
24
82.3
7
64
19
3.06
1.13
19.0%
5.7%
.264
81.3%
12.8%
31.0%
38.1%
A thirteenth round draft pick, its remarkable Griffin was effective in bursts last year. That said, I believe
Griffin’s ceiling is a #5 starter, which equates to a fringe Major Leaguer. The problem is he doesn’t miss
bats. He is a command and control pitcher (60-65 grade command) who pitches to contact. He has a
slightly below average 88-91mph fastball, average curveball, solid average changeup, and below average
slider. The changeup, his best pitch, is plus and allows him to get away with his below average fastball. If
he’s pitching behind a bad defense and/or a good or neutral hitter’s park he’s burnt toast. Luckily for
him he pitches in one of the best pitchers park in the American League and the defense behind him is
very good. He’s a streaming pitcher when he’s at home or has a favorable matchup.
Roy Halladay
Throws: R | Age: 35 | Team: Halladay | Position: SP | RK: 52 (176)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
32
239
17
208
35
2.79
1.13
21.6%
3.6%
.306
78.9%
13.5%
22.8%
51.2%
2010
MLB
33
250.7
21
219
30
2.44
1.04
22.1%
3.0%
.290
82.7%
14.8%
22.0%
52.6%
2011
MLB
34
233.7
19
220
35
2.35
1.04
23.6%
3.8%
.298
78.1%
7.5%
19.6%
53.0%
2012
MLB
35
156.3
11
132
36
4.49
1.22
20.4%
5.6%
.301
69.1%
14.2%
26.7%
45.5%
Halladay entered 2012 as the best starting pitcher in baseball and ended it as not even the second best
starter on his own team, which is insane but true. Despite a lower fastball velocity, he began the year on
fire, but was eventually shut down for six weeks with a shoulder strain. After he came back his velocity
was still down and he proceeded to get pounded. Sam Miller’s article suggests Halladay is still good, but
maybe not at the level he displayed in the past. His theory is based on hitters seeing him the third time
in order and how their OPS goes from the mid .600s to .801. He also shows how velocity of his cutter
decreasing steadily throughout the game and how it corresponds the third time in the order. Check out
my article at Baseball Analytics if you’re interested in more in-depth information.
Cole Hamels
Throws: L | Age: 29 | Team: Phillies | Position: SP | RK: 2 (15)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
193.7
10
168
43
4.32
1.29
20.6%
5.3%
.317
72.1%
15.3%
26.3%
43.6%
2010
MLB
26
208.7
12
211
61
3.06
1.18
24.6%
7.1%
.289
82.7%
17.6%
25.7%
47.0%
2011
MLB
27
216
14
194
44
2.79
0.99
22.8%
5.2%
.255
78.4%
13.8%
22.7%
55.2%
2012
MLB
28
215.3
17
216
52
3.05
1.12
24.9%
6.0%
.290
78.1%
15.2%
26.3%
44.9%
In July Hamels signed six-year, $144 million contract extension to stay with the Phillies. Hamels’
changeup, especially to right handed hitters is what makes Hamels so good. It can be devastating to
hitters even if they know it’s coming. Expect a blend of the 2012 and 2010 seasons for 2013. He’s money
in the bank.
Jason Hammel
Throws: R | Age: 30 | Team: Orioles | Position: SP | RK: 64 (208)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
26
176.7
10
133
42
4.33
1.39
17.3%
5.4%
.326
69.5%
11.7%
24.7%
48.4%
2010
MLB
27
177.7
10
141
47
4.81
1.40
18.3%
6.1%
.328
68.6%
13.3%
23.4%
47.7%
2011
MLB
28
170.3
7
94
68
4.76
1.43
12.7%
9.2%
.280
67.9%
14.2%
25.9%
45.7%
2012
MLB
29
118
8
113
42
3.43
1.24
22.9%
8.5%
.291
73.9%
9.9%
27.1%
53.9%
After getting traded from the Rockies to the Orioles last year was the biggest blessing Hammel could
have hoped for as his ERA decreased to 3.43 from 4.76 in 2011. He spent 54 days on the disabled list
after undergoing knee surgery in mid-July and returned in time for the playoffs, where he looked okay.
The big reason for his resurgence has been the addition of a sinker to his repertoire, which has enabled
to generate a ton of ground balls.
Tommy Hanson
Throws: R | Age: 26 | Team: Angels | Position: SP | RK: 134 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
22
127.7
11
116
46
2.89
1.18
22.2%
8.8%
.275
80.3%
9.4%
29.8%
40.7%
2010
MLB
23
202.7
10
173
56
3.33
1.17
20.5%
6.6%
.286
71.4%
7.2%
32.2%
43.4%
2011
MLB
24
130
11
142
46
3.60
1.17
26.3%
8.5%
.268
76.2%
13.7%
35.4%
41.1%
2012
MLB
25
174.7
13
161
71
4.48
1.45
21.2%
9.3%
.314
74.1%
15.1%
34.2%
41.8%
I’m simply going to say Hanson is going to be bad in 2013. I will not own him and he won’t even be on
my cheat sheets during drafts. He’s major injury risk and his performance decreased as the year went
on. Also, his fastball is a shell of what it used to be three, four years ago. On top of all that his command
and control is below average. It’s possible the Angels work on his delivery, which is really bad as it is, and
turns him into a solid starter again, but I highly doubt it.
Dan Haren
Throws: R | Age: 32 | Team: Nationals | Position: SP | RK: 57 (197)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
28
229.3
14
223
38
3.14
1.00
24.5%
4.2%
.267
77.0%
14.0%
30.0%
43.9%
2010
MLB
29
235
12
216
54
3.91
1.27
21.7%
5.4%
.311
74.4%
12.9%
33.3%
41.7%
2011
MLB
30
238.3
16
192
33
3.17
1.02
20.1%
3.5%
.272
71.5%
9.3%
29.9%
44.7%
2012
MLB
31
176.7
12
142
38
4.33
1.29
19.0%
5.1%
.302
70.9%
15.6%
31.9%
41.3%
To say Haren had a down season would be an understatement. He failed to pitch 200 innings and had an
ERA above 4 for the first time in the previous seven seasons. Even though he dealt with hip and back
problems all year there wasn’t any significant decline in his statistics besides a slight decrease in his
ground ball rate. The most troubling decline was his fastball velocity as it was 90.76 in 2011 but fell to
88.99 last year. In all fairness his velocity has dropped steadily since 2007 (about a half mile an hour). It’s
an over simplification to blame a decrease in fastball velocity as a reason for a pitchers struggles. Haren
didn’t become a consistent number 2 starter by accident. He knows how to sequence, mix his pitches
and frankly, pitch. My biggest concern is health. He could’ve been traded to the Cubs, but the Cubs
didn’t like his medicals.
Aaron Harang
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
31
162.3
6
142
43
4.21
1.41
20.2%
6.1%
.331
75.7%
15.3%
30.5%
36.9%
2010
MLB
32
111.7
6
82
38
5.32
1.58
16.3%
7.5%
.338
69.4%
13.0%
32.5%
38.3%
2011
MLB
33
170.7
14
124
58
3.64
1.36
17.2%
8.1%
.302
78.4%
11.8%
31.6%
43.1%
2012
MLB
34
179.7
10
131
85
3.61
1.40
16.7%
10.8%
.277
72.3%
7.7%
32.2%
41.2%
The past two seasons Harang has been relatively consistent, throwing at least 170 innnings with a 6.54
K/9 and a 3.64 ERA. The one trend that’s very troublesome is the 4.26 BB/9. If he walks that many
batters again, he’s playing with fire and will likely see a bump in his ERA and WHIP. Also, it’s very unlikely
he repeats his 6.3 HR/FB rate. I’d expect an ERA in the mid-four’s next year.
Lucas Harrell
Throws: R | Age: 27 | Team: Astros | Position: SP | RK: 106 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
25
24
1
15
17
4.88
2.13
12.6%
14.3%
.376
68.5%
20.0%
11.5%
52.9%
2011
AAA
26
126.7
12
94
50
2.63
1.25
27.6%
14.7%
.286
79.4%
54.5%
12.9%
61.2%
2011
MLB
26
18
0
15
8
4.50
1.72
17.4%
9.3%
.371
62.5%
0.0%
14.5%
56.5%
2012
MLB
27
193.7
11
140
78
3.76
1.36
16.9%
9.4%
.289
70.8%
12.0%
17.7%
58.5%
Harrell is a weird pitcher to evaluate because he’s a ground ball pitcher (second in the Majors in ground
ball percentage) who walks too many batters. Also, he had the fifth most starts with 5+ ER with seven
starts like that. He’s leaving the NL Central and going to the AL West, the best division in baseball. The
raw ingredients are there for him to be a top 50-60 fantasy starting pitcher, but I want to see his
performance improve for another year.
Matt Harvey
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Mets | Position: SP | RK: 33 (119)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
A+
22
76
8
92
24
2.37
1.20
71.3%
18.6%
.333
80.2%
15.6%
41.6%
48.1%
2011
AA
22
59.7
5
64
23
4.53
1.36
42.7%
15.3%
.330
66.3%
12.5%
32.3%
52.5%
2012
AAA
23
110
7
112
48
3.68
1.32
23.7%
10.1%
.295
75.9%
11.5%
25.3%
46.4%
2012
MLB
23
59.3
3
70
26
2.73
1.15
28.6%
10.6%
.262
81.3%
12.2%
27.5%
41.6%
Matt Harvey is really good; so good he struck out nearly 29% of the batters he faced. He’s aggressive
and attacks hitters with his plus-plus fastball that can sit 92-95 mph and top out at 98 mph if he needs it.
His two-seam fastball is an extremely effective pitch as it has a lot of arm side movement. His slider,
thrown 80-84 mph, is his next best pitch with good horizontal movement. He also has a cutter/slider
that that can be extremely effective on both sides of the plate. There was a good amount of luck with a
.262 BABIP and 81.3% LOB% last year. The counter argument is since he strikes out so many hitters the
historical means do not apply. He can be pitch inefficient at times; preferring to throw a chase pitch out
of the zone instead of going after hitters. However, he’s still young and has a lot to learn.
Matt Harrison
Throws: L | Age: 27 | Team: Harrison | Position: SP | RK: 54 (178)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
63.3
4
34
23
6.11
1.64
12.0%
8.1%
.335
67.5%
19.1%
21.0%
47.8%
2010
MLB
24
78.3
3
46
39
4.71
1.52
12.9%
11.0%
.270
71.0%
13.5%
27.5%
48.3%
2011
MLB
25
185.7
14
126
57
3.39
1.28
16.3%
7.4%
.290
72.3%
8.4%
26.2%
50.3%
2012
MLB
26
213.3
18
133
59
3.29
1.26
15.2%
6.7%
.284
78.6%
13.6%
23.7%
49.8%
Most of his Harrison’s value came from 18 wins and a sub 3.30 ERA. He threw the sinker, his primary
pitch, more than 41% of the time. As a sinker baller he relies on his defense to generate outs for him.
With the news of Ian Kinlser likely to stay at second base will limit Harrison’s upside. He doesn’t miss a
ton of bats or has plus-plus command, but he generates a lot of ground balls, inducing the highest
double play percentage since 2010. For two years in a row his final numbers have been far lower than
his FIP so it’s possible he continues that trend.
Jeremy Hellickson
Throws: R | Age: 26 | Team: Rays | Position: SP | RK: 26 (92)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AAA
23
11.7
12
123
35
2.45
1.17
25.5%
7.3%
.313
79.7%
-
-
-
2010
MLB
23
36.3
4
33
8
3.47
1.10
22.1%
5.4%
.267
80.0%
13.5%
34.9%
37.7%
2011
MLB
24
189
13
117
72
2.95
1.15
15.1%
9.3%
.223
82.0%
10.7%
33.7%
35.8%
2012
MLB
25
177
10
124
59
3.10
1.25
16.7%
8.0%
.262
82.7%
15.4%
29.3%
42.9%
Jason Collette wrote an amazing piece about Hellickson and you should read it. Do not forget to read the
comments too. Doug Thorburn, the pitching guru at Baseball Prospectus, wrote a great comment about
Hellickson’s mechanics in the stretch versus not the stretch. I’ll mention one of Collette’s points. Don’t
worry about the increased walk rate because it’s intentional; he doesn’t want to give into hitters.
“Asking Hellickson to strand at least 80 percent of his runners for a third straight season is asking him to
defy history and everything we know about regression of statistics. Just because something has never
been done, however, does not mean it cannot be done.” I agree. He’s someone I’ll be targeting on draft
day.
Felix Hernandez
Throws: R | Age: 27 | Team: Mariners | Position: SP | RK: 7 (27)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
238.7
19
217
71
2.49
1.14
22.2%
7.3%
.278
76.7%
9.1%
24.0%
53.8%
2010
MLB
24
249.7
13
232
70
2.27
1.06
23.2%
7.0%
.263
77.4%
10.9%
22.6%
55.4%
2011
MLB
25
233.7
14
222
67
3.47
1.22
23.0%
7.0%
.307
72.7%
11.5%
24.7%
51.5%
2012
MLB
26
232
13
223
56
3.06
1.14
23.7%
6.0%
.308
75.0%
9.7%
22.2%
50.5%
Hernandez’s velocity has decreased year-over-year his entire career. In 2007 his fastball was 98.63 mph
and last year it was 93.07. He’s been able to maintain his level of performance by relying more of his
command of the strike zone and incorporating more of his secondary stuff. Throwing more secondary
pitches allows the fastball to play up because hitters can’t sit dead red on his declining fastball. He
pitches in a great pitchers park, but is playing for one of the worst offensive teams in majors. He’ll be
drafted as a top 5-7 pitcher, which is too high for me.
Derek Holland
Throws: L | Age: 26 | Team: Rangers | Position: SP | RK: 59 (200)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AAA
23
62.7
6
51
18
1.87
1.08
20.2%
7.1%
.253
84.1%
11.1%
24.6%
47.5%
2010
MLB
23
57.3
3
54
24
4.08
1.38
21.3%
9.5%
.297
71.0%
10.7%
32.7%
42.1%
2011
MLB
24
198
16
162
67
3.95
1.35
19.2%
7.9%
.305
72.8%
14.7%
24.7%
48.4%
2012
MLB
25
175.3
12
145
52
4.67
1.22
19.9%
7.1%
.261
67.9%
19.0%
31.7%
44.0%
I hate his mustache. I’m trying not to let it bias my evaluation but every time I think of him, I think of the
thin eighth mustache he continues to sport. After a promising 2011, he took a step backwards as he
became more homer prone. His FB% went from 33.6% to 40%, resulting in him giving up 32 HRs. The
biggest change was his sinker/two-seamer, as it was more elevated in the upper half of the zone to right
handed hitters. What’s weird was that even though he was more homer prone, the average against him
dropped from .261 to .240. If he can mitigate the home run, he could be a nice value on draft day.
Tim Hudson
Throws: R | Age: 37 | Team: Braves | Position: SP | RK: 75 (262)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
33
42.3
2
30
13
3.61
1.47
16.7%
7.2%
.338
79.8%
17.4%
16.8%
61.3%
2010
MLB
34
228.7
17
139
74
2.83
1.15
15.1%
8.0%
.249
81.1%
14.3%
19.9%
64.7%
2011
MLB
35
215
16
158
56
3.22
1.14
17.9%
6.3%
.273
72.4%
9.8%
21.7%
58.0%
2012
MLB
36
179
16
102
48
3.62
1.21
13.6%
6.4%
.270
71.1%
8.3%
24.2%
56.6%
Last year Hudson had the lowest strikeout rate (13.6%) since 2004. Even though he doesn’t miss a lot of
bats, he generates a lot of ground balls with his sinker with an array of other secondary pitches. What’s
tipping in Hudson’s favor is he’ll have Andrelton Simmons and his gold glove defense behind him all
year. Even though his velocity has dropped, fantasy owners can get another good season out of him.
He’s especially useful if paired with high strikeout pitchers with high WHIPs and ERAs like an Edinson
Volquez.
Phil Hughes
Throws: R | Age: 27 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP | RK: 89 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
86
8
96
28
3.03
1.12
27.4%
8.0%
.280
78.0%
11.1%
32.4%
36.0%
2010
MLB
24
176.3
18
146
58
4.19
1.25
20.0%
7.9%
.273
74.1%
14.4%
33.1%
36.2%
2011
MLB
25
74.7
5
47
27
5.79
1.49
14.1%
8.1%
.304
65.4%
10.5%
33.6%
34.4%
2012
MLB
26
191.3
16
165
46
4.19
1.27
20.2%
5.6%
.286
73.9%
16.7%
34.9%
33.3%
A shoulder injury in 2011 kept him out for two months. When he was able to pitch, he was really bad,
but there were signs of optimism in his final two starts. Some fantasy owners may have used those
starts to pick him in 2012, hoping to see continued improvement. The good news is he threw the most
innings he’s ever thrown in his career. The bad news is he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, in fact had the
highest rate (47.6%) among qualified pitchers. Also, he was tied for second most in HRs allowed with 35.
Jason Vargas also gave up 35 and Ervin Santana gave up 39. If he pitched in Petco or PNC Park, this
wouldn’t be as big of an issue, but he pitches in Yankee Stadium. Expect 2012 numbers for 2013.
Danny Hultzen
Throws: L | Age: 23 | Team: Angels | Position: SP | RK: 113 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2012
AA
22
75.3
8
79
32
1.19
0.93
27.5%
11.1%
.203
84.0%
4.1%
28.2%
49.4%
2012
AAA
22
48.7
1
57
43
5.92
1.89
23.8%
17.9%
.351
65.5%
4.2%
35.3%
36.8%
Hultzen was drafted second overall in a very deep pitching draft class so the expecations bestowed upon
him were high. The reason why he was chosen so high was because of his polish and that he was almost
major league ready. He has average stuff with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and fringe average slider.
His changeup is his best secondary pitch as it provides a lot deception. His understanding of pitch
sequencing is above average, which allows his stuff to play up. He wore down at the end of last year so
I’m not putting much stock into his poor showing at Triple-A. He’ll start the year at Triple-A and could be
a post All-Star game call up. He’ll be a solid number 3 pitcher and great streaming option at home.
Hisashi Iwakuma
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
npb
28
169
13
121
43
3.25
1.31
17.0%
6.1%
-
80.2%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2010
npb
29
201
10
153
36
2.82
1.09
18.6%
4.4%
-
75.7%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
npb
30
119
6
90
43
2.42
1.05
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2012
MLB
31
125.3
9
101
43
3.16
1.28
19.5%
8.3%
.282
81.9%
20.2%
22.6%
53.5%
Iwakuma quietly had a really good second half of the season posting a 2.50 ERA with 8 wins. He pitches
in a great ballpark, has a 60 grade defense behind him, can generate a lot of ground balls and can strike
hitters out at a solid clip. His walk percentage of 8.3% can be misleading as his walk rate decreased
dramatically after the first half of the season. He’s a great streaming option when he’s at home.
Edwin Jackson
Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Cubs | Position: SP | RK: 46 (158)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
214
13
161
70
3.62
1.26
18.1%
7.9%
.276
76.7%
13.9%
29.7%
40.7%
2010
MLB
26
209.3
10
181
78
4.47
1.40
20.1%
8.6%
.313
69.6%
13.0%
25.3%
50.6%
2011
MLB
27
199.7
12
148
62
3.79
1.44
17.2%
7.2%
.330
73.9%
10.9%
22.6%
46.1%
2012
MLB
28
189.7
10
168
58
4.03
1.22
21.3%
7.3%
.278
71.2%
13.7%
29.8%
48.6%
Jackson may never live up to the ace ceiling bestowed on him coming up through the minors, but he’s a
solid pitcher, providing an average WAR of 3.5 the past four seasons. The biggest improvement has been
his command of the strike zone and not walking batters at a horrid pace; his walk percentage the past
two years has been a solid 7.3%. Jackson’s bread and butter is the slider; he throws it a ton and seems to
finally be able to command it. With a miss rate nearly 50%, Jackson got swings and misses with his slider
more frequently than any other starter in the game.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
218
15
198
85
3.47
1.23
21.7%
9.3%
.280
73.5%
10.4%
20.1%
55.4%
2010
MLB
26
221.7
19
214
92
2.88
1.15
23.9%
10.3%
.271
76.5%
7.7%
22.4%
49.8%
2011
MLB
27
188.3
10
180
78
4.68
1.40
21.9%
9.5%
.314
65.0%
11.6%
26.5%
47.7%
2012
MLB
28
176.7
9
143
95
5.40
1.61
17.8%
11.8%
.309
68.6%
15.4%
29.0%
39.7%
For three years in a row his BB/9, WHIP and ERA have increased while at the same his K/9 has dropped.
Needless to say 2012 was a really bad year for Jimenez. His fastball dropped four mph since 2010,
averaging at 93 mph. The biggest reason for his struggles has been maintaining mechanical consistency.
However, his command has always been impeccable when facing Troy Tulowitzki, so if Jimenez faced
him every at-bat he would be an ace again.
Josh Johnson
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
209
15
191
58
3.23
1.16
22.3%
6.8%
.290
74.9%
11.0%
21.2%
51.0%
2010
MLB
26
183.7
11
186
48
2.30
1.11
25.0%
6.5%
.298
79.2%
5.6%
24.8%
47.5%
2011
MLB
27
60.3
3
56
20
1.64
0.98
23.9%
8.5%
.239
82.2%
5.1%
24.8%
51.6%
2012
MLB
28
191.3
8
165
65
3.81
1.28
20.7%
8.1%
.302
71.9%
9.9%
25.0%
47.4%
Despite the perception of an injury risk, Johnson has pitched at least 183 innings in three of the past
four seasons. His 20.7% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career since his rookie year. Now he’s
leaving the NL and going to the AL East, which hurts his value. Two years ago he introduced a curveball,
which is an easy 60, into his repertoire to go along with the slider, changeup and fastball. Since 2010
he’s lost two mph on his fastball (93.53 average in 2012), which he’ll have to rely more on hitting his
spots to do well.
Joe Kelly
Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP | RK: 92 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
A+
23
72.7
5
62
34
2.6
1.24
20.3%
11.1%
0.000
74.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
AA
23
59.3
6
51
25
5.01
1.60
19.3%
9.5%
0.000
66.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2012
AAA
24
72.3
2
45
21
2.86
1.33
15.1%
7.0%
0.323
73.0%
3.4%
25.2%
57.0%
2012
MLB
24
107
5
75
36
3.53
1.38
16.4%
7.9%
0.306
73.7%
12.5%
23.3%
53.5%
Of the three pitchers (Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal and Shelby Miller) vying for the last rotation spot Kelly has
the lowest ceiling. His command comes and goes and secondary offerings (changeup and curveball) are
average and can look solid average at times. He does have a major league fastball that sits 92-94 when
he’s starting; it can reach the upper 90s in bursts coming out of the pen. However, because of the lack of
a consistent, quality breaking ball left handers will hit him hard; lefties hit .318 against Kelly last year. If
he makes the rotation he’s maybe a top 60-65 starting pitcher; it’s only a matter of time before Shelby
Miller takes his spot though.
Ian Kennedy
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
AAA
24
22.7
1
25
7
1.59
1.10
25.0%
7.0%
.290
80.0%
0.0%
27.0%
39.7%
2010
MLB
25
194
9
168
70
3.80
1.20
20.7%
8.6%
.256
75.5%
13.2%
35.1%
39.2%
2011
MLB
26
222
21
198
55
2.88
1.09
22.0%
6.1%
.270
79.2%
9.6%
30.9%
40.2%
2012
MLB
27
208.3
15
187
55
4.02
1.30
20.8%
6.1%
.306
74.9%
12.8%
33.9%
39.7%
Compared to 2011, Kennedy had a down year. His ERA went from 2.88 to 4.02 and his WHIP increased
from 1.09 to 1.30. Upon a closer look at the BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates – .270, 79.2% and 9.6%
respectively, it’s clear the 2011 season was unsustainable and was bound to regress, which it did.
Despite the ERA there wasn’t a big difference between the previous two seasons; he maintained his
strikeout and walk percentages, which gives me hope he can a solid number three fantasy starter. He’s
currently going 26th overall, which is too high. I bet fantasy owners are betting on a return to his 2011
season, which is a mistake. I’d draft him as 180K, 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP pitcher.
Clayton Kershaw
Throws: L | Age: 25 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP | RK: 1 (11)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
21
171
8
185
91
2.79
1.23
26.4%
13.0%
.269
77.5%
5.8%
28.1%
40.7%
2010
MLB
22
204.3
13
212
81
2.91
1.18
25.0%
9.6%
.275
76.2%
8.7%
27.3%
42.3%
2011
MLB
23
233.3
21
248
54
2.28
0.98
27.2%
5.9%
.269
78.6%
8.8%
28.2%
45.3%
2012
MLB
24
227.7
14
229
63
2.53
1.02
25.4%
7.0%
.262
77.9%
10.3%
25.7%
48.9%
Command issues stifled his fantasy value early in his career, but starting in 2011, his CY Young season,
he cut down on the walks dramatically while maintaining his strikeout rates. He has the best stuff in the
game with a great slider, changeup, curveball and mid-90s fastball; all of which have the perfect
disparity in mph. He throws his slider more than 22% of the time last year; I’m always worried about
injury with pitchers who throw the slider a lot. Any pitcher can get hurt at any time, but pitchers who
throw a lot of sliders have a greater likelihood of injury.
Hiroki Kuroda
Throws: R | Age: 38 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP | RK: 22 (81)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
34
117.3
8
87
24
3.76
1.14
17.9%
4.9%
.271
64.3%
12.8%
25.1%
52.7%
2010
MLB
35
196.3
11
159
48
3.39
1.16
19.6%
5.9%
.283
68.9%
12.2%
20.5%
52.7%
2011
MLB
36
202
13
161
49
3.07
1.21
19.2%
5.8%
.287
79.9%
14.1%
27.2%
46.4%
2012
MLB
37
219.7
16
167
51
3.32
1.17
18.7%
5.7%
.281
77.7%
16.6%
22.7%
53.4%
Kuroda is as sexy of a fantasy player as the idea of the next Katherine Heigl movie, which is no surprise
he’s being undervalued in drafts. He’s a smart, adaptive pitcher who knows how to pitch. Most
importantly, he’s been extremely consistent the past three seasons; three straight years of an ERA under
3.39 with a strikeout rate greater than 18.7%. With the Yankees clubhouse becoming an infirmary, the
potential for 15+ wins is not as high as it was in the pre-season.
Mat Latos
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
21
50.7
4
39
23
4.62
1.30
18.4%
10.8%
.252
65.8%
13.5%
34.7%
38.7%
2010
MLB
22
184.7
14
189
50
2.92
1.08
25.3%
6.7%
.273
77.4%
10.5%
30.2%
45.8%
2011
MLB
23
194.3
9
185
62
3.47
1.18
23.2%
7.8%
.284
71.4%
8.9%
32.6%
44.7%
2012
MLB
24
209.3
14
185
64
3.48
1.16
21.6%
7.5%
.266
75.5%
15.3%
26.9%
47.5%
Despite lowering his FB% five percentage points in his first year with the Reds, he became more homer
prone, allowing 25 HRs, a 56% increase compared to 2011. The change isn’t that shocking as the Reds
ballpark is the most conducive to homers of any major league team (18 of his 25 HRs were at home). To
compensate for his new ballpark he made a concerted effort to increase the number of ground balls by
using his slider more. The potential of a 200 strikeout season may not be in the cards, but buy with
confidence.
Cliff Lee
Throws: L | Age: 34 | Team: Phillies | Position: SP | RK: 6 (26)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
30
231.7
14
181
43
3.22
1.24
18.7%
4.4%
.316
76.2%
8.3%
27.6%
43.8%
2010
MLB
31
212.3
12
185
18
3.18
1.00
21.9%
2.1%
.288
67.8%
8.2%
30.6%
42.0%
2011
MLB
32
232.7
17
238
42
2.40
1.03
25.9%
4.6%
.291
81.4%
12.1%
23.4%
48.8%
2012
MLB
33
211
6
207
28
3.16
1.11
24.4%
3.3%
.309
78.5%
14.7%
28.9%
45.6%
Despite leading the league with a 1.19 BB/9, Lee was the unluckiest starting pitcher in baseball, only
winning six games. It’s a shame his great season was overlooked by the win total. However, this could be
an opportunity as he may be undervalued in drafts. Last year he was the fourth pitcher taken on ESPN. I
bet he slips (especially in non-expert leagues). If he does, fantasy owners will get an ace at a nice
discount.
Jon Lester
Throws: L | Age: 29 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SP | RK: 45 (157)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
203.3
15
225
64
3.41
1.23
26.7%
7.6%
.313
76.9%
14.2%
25.6%
48.8%
2010
MLB
26
208
19
225
83
3.25
1.20
26.1%
9.6%
.289
74.5%
10.9%
23.5%
54.2%
2011
MLB
27
191.7
15
182
75
3.47
1.26
22.8%
9.4%
.286
78.1%
14.7%
25.6%
50.9%
2012
MLB
28
205.3
9
166
68
4.82
1.38
18.9%
7.8%
.312
67.6%
17.5%
22.4%
50.6%
What happened to Jon Lester? Two years ago he was considered the best left handed pitcher in the
game and now, he’s become an afterthought. During the second half of 2011 his ERA was 3.89, more
than a run higher than the first half. Last year his strikeout was below 20% for the first time in four
seasons. Couple that with a high .312 BABIP, 13.9% HR/FB rate and you have the perfect recipe for a bad
season. John Farrell, Boston’s old pitching coach, is returning back to the club so maybe that will help
Lester regain the dominance he once showed. Lester is the perfect buy low candidate I’ll be targeting on
my fantasy teams.
Tim Lincecum
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
225.3
15
261
68
2.48
1.05
28.8%
7.5%
.282
75.9%
6.8%
25.7%
49.1%
2010
MLB
26
212.3
16
231
76
3.43
1.27
25.8%
8.5%
.310
76.5%
12.7%
24.2%
49.9%
2011
MLB
27
217
13
220
86
2.74
1.21
24.4%
9.6%
.281
78.5%
9.5%
26.7%
49.5%
2012
MLB
28
186
10
190
90
5.18
1.47
23.0%
10.9%
.309
67.8%
16.7%
25.4%
47.3%
This is a make or break year for Lincecum, whose entering the last year of his contract. Depending on
how well or poorly he pitches could cost him millions of dollars. It’s been well documented how he had a
lousy season; leading the NL in earned runs and wild pitches. His fastball dropped two mph from 2011 to
2012 so that’s very concerning, but what’s not concerning is he continued to miss just as many bats as
he did in 2010 and 2011. That tells me the stuff is still there, he just has to make adjustments and can be
a top 10-15 fantasy pitcher again. The biggest adjustment he’ll need to make is pitching up in the zone
with his fastball; last year he ranked 10th among starting pitchers who threw the ball up in the zone. He’s
thrown up in the strike zone his entire career, which is fine when you throw in the mid to high 90s, but
not when you’re throwing 90-92 mph. Felix Hernandez also has seen his fastball velocity decrease but
he’s been able to maintain his dominance by relying more on sequencing and utilizing his secondary
pitches more. I believe Lincecum will make the adjustments necessary to being a top 15-20 starting
pitcher.
Francisco Liriano
Throws: L | Age: 29 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP | RK: 118 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
136.7
5
122
65
5.80
1.55
20.0%
10.7%
.319
66.3%
16.9%
29.8%
42.5%
2010
MLB
26
191.7
14
201
58
3.62
1.26
24.9%
7.2%
.331
73.1%
7.8%
21.4%
55.9%
2011
MLB
27
134.3
9
112
75
5.09
1.49
19.0%
12.7%
.290
67.2%
12.1%
29.2%
49.4%
2012
MLB
28
156.7
6
167
87
5.34
1.47
24.1%
12.6%
.300
66.5%
14.2%
31.0%
45.6%
In late December the Pirates and Liriano agreed to a two-year, $12.75 million contract, but a Major
League source found out he suffered to his non-throwing right arm shortly after the deal was agreed
upon, thus taking it off the table. Liriano throws a four-seam and two-seam fastball that sits in the low
90s. His best secondary pitch is the slider, which generates a lot of strikeouts. The biggest roadblock for
fantasy success has been the command of the strike zone. For the past two years he’s walked 12.6% of
the batters he’s faced. Any time you’re starting Liriano you’re playing with fire because he can blow up
at any moment.
Kyle Lohse
Throws: R | Age: 34 | Team: | Position: SP | RK: 86 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
30
117.7
6
77
36
4.74
1.37
15.0%
7.0%
.287
67.1%
14.7%
27.5%
45.7%
2010
MLB
31
92
4
54
35
6.55
1.78
12.5%
8.1%
.364
59.6%
9.8%
27.1%
44.2%
2011
MLB
32
188.3
14
111
42
3.39
1.17
14.3%
5.4%
.269
71.3%
8.6%
29.8%
43.0%
2012
MLB
33
211
16
143
38
2.86
1.09
16.6%
4.4%
.262
77.1%
10.1%
27.6%
43.0%
It’s Mid-February and Lohse has yet to find a team to call his home. Despite the underlying accounting
numbers Lohse had very lucky year, specifically with his .262 BABIP. However, that’s three out of four
years he’s had a BABIP lower than .287; so maybe his average is in the .280s instead of .300. For three
years in a row his strikeout percentage has increased and his walk percentage has decreased, which is a
great trend I want to see out of any pitcher.
Jordan Lyles
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AAA
20
62.3
3
42
17
3.61
1.30
16.3%
6.6%
.000
75.9%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
20
94
2
67
26
5.36
1.41
16.1%
6.3%
.307
65.0%
16.5%
26.8%
43.8%
2012
AAA
21
40.7
5
33
8
3.54
1.20
19.6%
4.8%
.331
74.7%
10.5%
15.8%
59.2%
2012
MLB
21
141.3
5
99
42
5.09
1.42
15.8%
6.7%
.302
61.2%
18.3%
22.7%
54.5%
Lyles is a better pitcher than his numbers would indicate. The defense behind him had 118 errors, third
most in the league. He has a solid plus fastball that sits 91-93 that can touch 95. His slider, thrown at in
the upper 80’s has good glove side tilt. His ceiling is a number three pitcher and his floor is a number
four pitcher. What’s not to like is he’s moving from the NL Central to the AL West, the best division in
the AL, which will make it harder to get wins and have an above average ERA. The defense infield should
be better behind him if Jed Lowrie plays a full year and with Matt Dominguez playing third.
Lance Lynn
Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP | RK: 30 (104)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AAA
23
164
13
141
62
4.77
1.38
19.4%
8.6%
.301
67.4%
13.5%
30.6%
44.1%
2011
AAA
24
75
7
64
25
3.84
1.39
20.2%
7.9%
.000
70.7%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
24
34.7
1
40
11
3.12
1.04
29.4%
8.1%
.272
76.2%
11.5%
31.0%
58.3%
2012
MLB
25
176
18
180
64
3.78
1.32
24.2%
8.6%
.321
75.6%
12.8%
25.4%
46.3%
Lynn’s 2012 season was tale of two halves. During the first half he won 11 games, had a 3.41 ERA and a
1.23 WHIP. However, in the second half he won just 7 games with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. In order
to not over work him, the Cardinals put him in the bullpen for month down the stretch. Lynn has a plusplus fastball, which has late movement, sits between 92-94 mph and can hit as high as 97 mph. For
secondary pitches he primarily relies on the sinker and curveball, but will throw a cutter and changeup
sparingly. The curveball is his best secondary pitch, effective against both lefties and righties. If he can
improve the command of his changeup he can be a top 20 fantasy starter. Fantasy owners should expect
a 3.80+ ERA with 170+ strikeouts.
Paul Maholm
Throws: L | Age: 30 | Team: Braves | Position: SP | RK: 69 (217)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
27
194.7
8
119
60
4.44
1.44
14.2%
7.2%
.325
69.2%
9.5%
22.7%
53.5%
2010
MLB
28
185.3
9
102
62
5.10
1.57
12.1%
7.4%
.327
64.7%
9.3%
24.3%
52.6%
2011
MLB
29
162.3
6
97
50
3.66
1.29
14.1%
7.3%
.286
72.1%
9.2%
22.3%
51.9%
2012
MLB
30
189
13
140
53
3.67
1.22
17.8%
6.7%
.281
75.7%
14.4%
23.8%
52.6%
For the past two seasons Maholm has really good, but to most baseball fans he’s still flying under the
radar. In the last two years he’s thrown more strikes; nearly two percentage points more. That may not
seem like a lot but throwing more strikes allows his secondary stuff (changeup, slider, cutter, sinker and
curveball) to play up. His baseball card stats are pretty solid, but he doesn’t strikeout enough guys to be
any more than the last pitcher in a pitching staff.
Shaun Marcum
Throws: R | Age: 31 | Team: Mets | Position: SP | RK: 125 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2008
MLB
26
151.3
9
123
50
3.39
1.16
19.5%
7.9%
.246
80.2%
14.0%
33.5%
43.1%
2010
MLB
28
195.3
13
165
43
3.64
1.15
20.6%
5.4%
.279
74.3%
12.4%
32.9%
38.7%
2011
MLB
29
200.7
13
158
57
3.54
1.16
19.2%
6.9%
.262
73.6%
11.2%
32.4%
39.8%
2012
MLB
30
124
7
109
41
3.70
1.27
20.7%
7.8%
.280
75.0%
13.6%
31.6%
36.7%
Marcum missed a little more than two months of the season with elbow soreness. Before going on the
DL he had a 3.40 ERA, 8.45 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9 and after he had a 4.29 ERA, 6.86 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9.
When he came back from the DL, the velocity on his pitches were the same, but his biggest problem was
locating his pitches, specifically his off-speed stuff. I’m always very weary when a pitcher has elbow
soreness. Couple that with the face he’s only thrown more than 195 innings two times in his career
means fantasy owners must temper expectations. He’s a perfect pitcher you enjoy the time he’s healthy,
but when he gets hurt do not be surprised.
Justin Masterson
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
129.3
4
119
60
4.52
1.45
21.0%
10.6%
.314
68.6%
12.5%
25.2%
55.9%
2010
MLB
25
180
6
140
73
4.70
1.50
17.5%
9.1%
.324
66.6%
11.8%
20.6%
60.4%
2011
MLB
26
216
12
158
65
3.21
1.28
17.4%
7.2%
.302
72.9%
7.8%
20.9%
56.2%
2012
MLB
27
206.3
11
159
88
4.93
1.45
17.5%
9.7%
.309
66.4%
13.6%
20.4%
57.1%
After a supurb 2011, Masterson had the worst year of his career, posting a 4.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and a
3.84 BB/9. He was a bit unlucky with the 66.4% LOB% and 11.4% HR/FB, but I’m not confident he’ll ever
come close to reaching the 2011 numbers. All of his secondary pitches (slider and sinker) all break
towards the fat part of the zone to left handed hitters, which means lefties will always hit him hard. He’s
successful against right handed hitters because those pitches move away from their bats. Unless he adds
a quality changeup or splitter, he’ll continue to get lit by lefties.
Zach McAllister
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AAA
23
154.7
12
128
31
3.32
1.20
19.9%
4.8%
.000
74.2%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
23
17.7
0
14
7
6.11
1.86
16.7%
8.3%
.403
53.8%
6.7%
23.8%
42.9%
2012
AAA
24
63.3
5
52
19
2.98
1.23
22.2%
8.1%
.307
72.6%
9.8%
30.2%
40.2%
2012
MLB
24
125.3
6
110
38
4.24
1.36
20.3%
7.0%
.304
64.6%
14.3%
33.8%
40.9%
Statistically had a solid year with a 4.25 ERA and a 7.90 K/9. Despite those numbers he’s a fringe number
five starter who ideally fits as a long reliever. He primarily throws a four seam fastball and a two seam
fastball. Both fastballs sit 91-94 mph and maxing out at 96. The two seamer has good arm side
movement and the four seamer can be elevated (on purpose) to generate strikeouts. However, he
doesn’t have a quality breaking ball or changeup. He uses them as a “show me” pitch, but can’t
command them for strikes. The league will catch up to him in 2013.
Brandon McCarthy
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2008
MLB
25
22
1
10
8
4.09
1.27
10.8%
8.6%
.239
72.6%
9.1%
44.6%
27.0%
2009
MLB
25
97.3
7
65
36
4.62
1.36
15.5%
8.6%
.274
68.5%
13.5%
30.5%
40.0%
2011
MLB
27
170.7
9
123
25
3.32
1.13
17.8%
3.6%
.296
67.6%
8.7%
23.4%
47.8%
2012
MLB
28
111
8
73
24
3.24
1.25
15.6%
5.1%
.295
77.1%
9.8%
27.9%
42.6%
Injuries aside let’s discuss his 2012 season. He threw less strikes, his strikeout rate dropped slightly
(15.6% from 17.8%), his walk percentage increased slightly (5.1% from 3.6%), and his GB% dropped five
percentage points. Despite the decline, the quality of his pitches remained intact. The likelihood of him
missing time is greater than most pitchers, but when he’s in there he’ll pound the strike zone, generate
ground balls and give fantasy owners a very healthy WHIP and ERA. Even though it’s counter intuitive,
pitching in Arizona, a NL team, hurts his value slightly compared his previous home park in Oakland. I bet
when his career is over his 2011 season will be the best in his career.
James McDonald
Throws: R | Age: 28 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP | RK: 43 (153)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
63
5
54
34
4.00
1.49
19.3%
12.1%
.298
71.7%
10.5%
30.5%
46.0%
2010
MLB
25
71.7
4
68
29
4.02
1.38
22.2%
9.5%
.322
71.7%
5.5%
34.8%
32.4%
2011
MLB
26
171
9
142
78
4.21
1.49
18.8%
10.3%
.303
77.0%
14.6%
31.1%
39.8%
2012
MLB
27
171
12
151
69
4.21
1.26
21.2%
9.7%
.269
70.8%
13.4%
32.1%
41.5%
What happened to McDonald in the second half of the season? During the first half he looked like a
legitimate contender for the CY Young with a 2.37 ERA, 8.18 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9. However after the allstar break he imploded, posting a 7.52 ERA, 8.36 K/9 and 5.61 BB/9. Most of the damage came from
right handed hitters pounding on the fastball. During the first half of the season he threw the fastball for
strikes 66% of the time compared to only 63% during the second half. When he threw the ball for strikes
in the second half, they were left up and over the middle of the plate, which found more barrels of
bats. Check out my article at Baseball Analytics if you’re interested in more in-depth information.
Kyle McPherson
Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP | RK: 124 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
23
89.3
8
82
21
3.02
1.08
36.8%
9.4%
.288
72.6%
12.5%
34.4%
34.4%
2012
AA
24
48.7
3
46
5
4.07
1.21
22.5%
2.5%
.338
65.5%
9.3%
36.0%
34.7%
2012
AAA
24
18.3
0
17
4
0.98
0.82
24.6%
5.8%
.213
88.2%
5.6%
36.7%
40.8%
2012
MLB
24
26.3
0
21
7
2.73
1.18
19.6%
6.5%
.284
86.8%
13.0%
29.9%
46.8%
McPherson has a solid plus fastball that sits 91-94 mph, but can top out at 96. However, his curveball
and changeup are below average. The Pirates drafted him in the 14th round, which means they’re
getting a tremendous value from McPherson, whose upside is a number five starter who will eat a lot of
innings. Fantasy owners shouldn’t add him to your roster except for the deepest of leagues.
Kris Medlen
Throws: R | Age: 27 | Team: Braves | Position: SP | RK: 27 (97)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2012
AAA
26
13.3
0
12
6
4.73
1.58
20.3%
10.2%
.342
78.1%
33.3%
15.0%
35.0%
2009
MLB
23
67.7
3
72
30
4.26
1.40
24.5%
10.2%
.324
70.0%
8.3%
31.6%
42.1%
2010
MLB
24
107.7
6
83
21
3.68
1.20
18.9%
4.8%
.299
73.8%
13.3%
29.6%
44.4%
2012
MLB
26
138
10
120
23
1.57
0.91
23.1%
4.4%
.261
85.0%
6.7%
23.8%
54.5%
Medlen, two years removed from TJ surgery, started the year in bullpen, but injuries and ineffectiveness
by his contemporaries gave him the opportunity to join the Braves rotation. He did not disappoint
posting, a .974 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 12 starts. Can he keep up this pace in 2013? No. Is he legit? Yes.
His changeup was third in league in generating whiffs, ranking only behind Stephen Strasburg and Cole
Hamels. The average pitcher gets about 25% of his K's via call by the umpire, but Medlen posted a 40%
strikeout rate of players caught looking,indicating he has the command necessary to be a top ten
pitcher.
Wade Miley
Throws: L | Age: 26 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | RK: 55 (179)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
24
75.3
4
46
28
4.78
1.35
33.8%
20.6%
.296
58.0%
25.0%
23.1%
53.8%
2011
AAA
24
54.3
4
56
16
3.64
1.27
24.8%
7.1%
.000
72.6%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
24
40
4
25
18
4.50
1.65
13.9%
10.0%
.321
79.9%
15.0%
29.0%
48.6%
2012
MLB
25
194.7
16
144
37
3.33
1.18
17.8%
4.6%
.293
72.0%
7.5%
29.7%
45.1%
Miley came out of nowhere (in terms of fantasy hype) and came within seven points of winning the NL
Rookie of the Year. He throws a lot of strikes (tenth most in the majors) and relies on location to get
outs. He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph. He has a deep bag of secondary
pitches including a changeup, slider, and curveball. His best secondary pitch is the changeup because of
the downward fading action. His curveball can be very hittable, as it’s left up in the zone too often. If he
improves the quality of his curveball he’s the front runner for the best fantasy starter. If that doesn’t
happen his ERA will regress to the high 3s and have a 1.20 WHIP.
Shelby Miller
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
A+
20
53
2
81
20
2.89
1.13
37.0%
9.1%
.000
70.4%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
AA
20
86.7
9
89
33
2.70
1.21
25.1%
9.3%
.000
76.3%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2012
AAA
21
136.7
11
160
50
4.74
1.38
27.0%
8.4%
.327
73.2%
15.3%
42.1%
34.9%
2012
MLB
21
13.7
1
16
4
1.32
0.95
29.6%
7.4%
.273
85.7%
0.0%
27.3%
42.4%
To begin the 2012 season, Miller’s first 17 starts in Triple-A were less than perfect; he posted a 6.17 ERA
(due to a lack of command). However, during his last 10 starts he dominated hitters with a 2.88 ERA
with 70 strikeouts in only 59 innings. In only 13 big league innings he continued to flash his dominance
striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faced. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can touch 98 if he
needs it. The fastball has good sink and boring action that jumps on hitters because of his extension. His
changeup and curveball (looks like a slider), can both miss a ton of bats. As the 2012 season wore on he
metamorphosed from a "grip it and rip it" thrower to pitcher who relied less on the fastball and
sequenced his secondary pitches more frequently. If he begins the year in the Cardinals rotation he’s a
top 30 fantasy starting pitcher.
Tommy Milone
Throws: L | Age: 25 | Team: Athletics | Position: SP | RK: 120 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AA
23
158
12
155
23
2.85
1.16
23.1%
3.4%
.326
75.3%
7.0%
29.4%
2010
2011
AAA
24
148.3
12
155
16
3.22
1.03
38.5%
4.0%
.326
70.0%
10.1%
31.1%
2011
2011
MLB
24
26
1
15
4
3.81
1.23
13.6%
3.6%
.299
73.7%
8.0%
28.1%
2011
2012
MLB
25
190
13
137
36
3.74
1.28
17.3%
4.6%
.310
73.6%
13.1%
29.8%
2012
Last year I saw Milone’s first game as an A’s starter with great anticipation. His minor league numbers
looked great; 9.41 K/9 and 0.97 BB/9. After the third inning I was shaking my head because I didn’t
understand how he accumulated those minor league numbers; his fastball maxed out at 88 and his
changeup was 80-81, surely not the stuff conducive to striking out hitters. He went on to pitch eight
scoreless innings and get the win, but I knew after watching the game his future would be of a fringe
number 5 starter because his stuff was fringe average. His command is an easy 60, but if he’s not able to
hit his spots he’ll get lit up. He benefits a great deal from pitching Oakland, a park more forgiving of
mistakes, allowing his numbers to look better than what they really are.
Mike Minor
Throws: L | Age: 25 | Team: Braves | Position: SP | RK: 39 (145)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
22
40.7
3
43
11
5.98
1.57
23.2%
5.9%
.379
65.4%
13.6%
33.8%
37.7%
2011
AAA
23
100.7
4
99
27
3.13
1.19
23.9%
6.5%
.000
75.1%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
23
82.7
5
77
30
4.14
1.49
21.3%
8.3%
.350
74.4%
8.3%
33.2%
38.7%
2012
MLB
24
179.3
11
145
56
4.12
1.15
19.9%
7.7%
.252
70.6%
13.9%
35.8%
37.2%
Minor’s season was a tale of two halves (pre and post all-star break). The first half he was awful; giving
up 19 HRs in 92 innings, ballooning his ERA to 5.97. The second half his ERA fell to 2.16 and he only gave
up 7 HRs. At the start of the year he was a two pitcher, throwing his a fastball and changeup. Hitters
took full advantage; either waiting for a specific pitch or taking a 50/50 guess. After the all-star break he
incorporated the curveball and slider a lot more; thereby, inducing weaker contact because batters can
longer sit on a pitch. This year Minor could end the year as a top 20-25 pitcher.
Matt Moore
Throws: L | Age: 23 | Team: Rays | Position: SP | RK: 12 (47)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
22
102.3
8
131
28
2.20
0.94
32.8%
7.0%
.000
78.0%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
AAA
22
52.7
4
79
18
1.37
0.97
38.7%
8.8%
.000
92.1%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
22
9.3
1
15
3
2.89
1.29
37.5%
7.5%
.381
84.9%
20.0%
22.7%
45.5%
2012
MLB
23
177.3
11
175
81
3.81
1.35
23.1%
10.7%
.294
72.9%
10.4%
34.9%
38.7%
Moore was one of the most hyped pitchers entering drafts last year. Scouts debated whether or not he
was top prospect in baseball (Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were the other two players in the
conversation) and he looked unhittable in the ALDS against the Texas Rangers. On the surface it looks as
though he didn’t up to the pre-season hype with a 3.81 ERA and walking nearly 11% of batters. But
there’s reason for optimism again. He was tenth in the AL in strikeouts (with only 177 innings) and most
importantly, had a very promising season that saw him improve as the year went on (i.e. he had
adjustments). This is evidenced by a 3.01 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and striking out 24.3% hitters, which was two
percentage points more than the first half.
Brandon Morrow
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
69.7
2
63
44
4.39
1.58
20.1%
14.1%
.286
75.0%
15.6%
30.9%
36.2%
2010
MLB
25
146.3
10
178
66
4.49
1.38
28.3%
10.5%
.342
69.0%
9.2%
31.9%
40.2%
2011
MLB
26
179.3
11
203
69
4.72
1.29
26.1%
8.9%
.299
65.5%
14.4%
29.6%
36.7%
2012
MLB
27
124.7
10
108
41
2.96
1.11
21.4%
8.1%
.252
77.3%
11.1%
30.5%
42.4%
Morrow took a major step forward in 2012 becoming a pitcher instead of a thrower, posting the lowest
BB/9 in his career (2.96). Instead of relying on his fastball and slider, he threw the splitter and curveball
more as well incorporating a cutter and sinker. The incorporation of secondary pitches lowered his
strikeout rate to 21.4%. But I’ll take that if I can generate a WHIP below 1.15 and an ERA under 3.20.
Morrow did miss six weeks because of a strained left oblique and when he came off the DL he posted (in
39 innings) a 3.59 ERA, 6.92 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9.
Brett Myers
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
28
70.7
4
50
23
4.84
1.37
16.4%
7.6%
.268
83.1%
29.5%
26.9%
47.6%
2010
MLB
29
223.7
14
180
66
3.14
1.24
19.2%
7.1%
.288
76.3%
10.4%
28.1%
50.1%
2011
MLB
30
216
7
160
57
4.46
1.31
17.4%
6.2%
.293
70.2%
15.5%
28.6%
49.1%
2012
MLB
31
65.3
3
41
15
3.31
1.23
15.1%
5.5%
.278
73.8%
17.8%
21.1%
53.1%
After a year of pitching in relief for the Astros and White Sox last year, Myers returns back to the starting
rotation with the revamped Cleveland Indians. He’ll start the year as their third starter. He’s nothing
more than an innings eater who will put up a mid-4s and a 1.35-1.40 WHIP. He’s not very good and
starters like him will be available on the waiver wire all year. Most importantly, he’s an awful human
being.
Jon Niese
Throws: L | Age: 26 | Team: Mets | Position: SP | RK: 50 (172)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
22
25.7
1
18
9
4.21
1.40
16.4%
8.2%
.317
69.4%
5.3%
22.9%
49.4%
2010
MLB
23
173.7
9
148
62
4.20
1.46
19.2%
8.1%
.324
70.6%
15.7%
23.0%
48.5%
2011
MLB
24
157.3
11
138
44
4.40
1.41
19.9%
6.3%
.333
67.0%
12.7%
21.5%
54.8%
2012
MLB
25
190.3
13
155
49
3.40
1.17
19.7%
6.2%
.272
76.5%
15.5%
24.5%
49.3%
Niese’s final stat line was a hodge-podge luck and non-luck. Compared to 2011 his K/9, BB/9 and ERA all
decreased. The decrease strikeouts came primarily against left handed hitters as he only struck out 23%
compared to 25.8% in 2011. His best two pitches are the cutter and curveball. The curveball borders on
plus with great shape. The cutter generates a lot glove side movement that can miss bats if setup
properly. As a below average velocity pitcher, he relies on mixing and most importantly, commanding
his pitches. He probably will not maintain his 76.5% LOB rate or .272 BABIP so a regression is coming.
Expect an ERA in the high three’s with a 1.19 WHIP.
Jeff Niemann
Throws: R | Age: 30 | Team: Rays | Position: SP | RK: 119 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
26
180.7
13
125
59
3.94
1.35
16.3%
7.7%
.301
73.7%
10.4%
28.4%
41.6%
2010
MLB
27
174.3
12
131
61
4.39
1.26
17.9%
8.3%
.263
73.4%
15.0%
31.3%
45.3%
2011
MLB
28
135.3
11
105
37
4.06
1.24
18.4%
6.5%
.278
73.1%
16.5%
25.6%
47.5%
2012
MLB
29
38
2
34
12
3.08
1.11
21.8%
7.7%
.264
65.5%
6.7%
27.8%
52.8%
2012 was a lost year for Niemann. He suffered a fractured fibula that put him on the DL until September
and when he came back, he left the game with shoulder soreness. His stuff is mediocre, but he plays on
one of the best teams in baseball and one of the best pitchers parks in baseball. He lost velocity on his
fastball last year, which could have been due to his injuries. He’s worth a shot only in deeper leagues.
Ricky Nolasco
Throws: R | Age: 30 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP | RK: 98 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
26
185
13
195
44
5.06
1.25
24.8%
5.6%
.317
61.0%
13.1%
32.4%
39.9%
2010
MLB
27
157.7
14
147
33
4.51
1.28
22.1%
5.0%
.316
71.6%
16.4%
30.2%
41.5%
2011
MLB
28
206
10
148
44
4.67
1.40
16.6%
4.9%
.331
66.2%
10.9%
26.1%
47.4%
2012
MLB
29
191
12
125
47
4.48
1.37
15.0%
5.6%
.310
69.3%
10.7%
25.9%
48.9%
For the past three years his K/9 has decreased and his BB/ has increased year-over-year, which is very
concerning. Coinciding with the decrease in strikeouts is the velocity drop of his fastball from 92 mph in
2010 to only 90.71 in 2012. His high strikeout potential made him a sleeper in 2009-10, but in 2013 he’s
a pitcher that doesn’t offer enough upside to drafting him. Also, he’s very prone to one to three
horrendous outings per year.
Bud Norris
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
55.7
6
54
25
4.53
1.51
21.7%
10.0%
.316
78.0%
18.0%
29.9%
40.7%
2010
MLB
25
153.7
9
158
77
4.92
1.48
23.1%
11.3%
.314
67.0%
13.0%
31.3%
45.1%
2011
MLB
26
186
6
176
70
3.77
1.33
22.1%
8.8%
.294
72.8%
14.3%
30.8%
42.4%
2012
MLB
27
168.3
7
165
66
4.65
1.37
22.5%
9.0%
.301
72.1%
14.4%
32.3%
40.6%
Norris is my fantasy kryptonite. Every year I’m tempted by the strikeouts and hope he can take the next
step forward to becoming an ace. This year is first year he probably will not be on any of my teams. His
velocity on his fastball has dropped two mph from 2009; his fastball velocity in 2012 was 92.51 mph. The
last two seasons the whiff rate on the fastball has gone from 18.9% in 2010 to 14.65% in 2012. He can
still be viable for fantasy when he pitches at home. The last three years at home he has a 3.37 ERA
compared to a 5.49 ERA on the road.
Ivan Nova
Throws: R | Age: 27 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP | RK: 71 (219)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AAA
23
145
12
115
48
2.86
1.26
19.4%
8.1%
.298
78.9%
10.3%
22.5%
53.4%
2010
MLB
23
42
1
26
17
4.50
1.45
14.1%
9.2%
.294
70.9%
10.8%
26.4%
51.4%
2011
MLB
24
165.3
16
98
57
3.70
1.33
13.9%
8.1%
.283
73.1%
9.6%
24.9%
54.1%
2012
MLB
25
170.3
12
153
56
5.02
1.47
20.5%
7.5%
.331
72.5%
19.7%
26.8%
46.3%
After a promising rookie season, Nova took a step backward with a 5.02 ERA. However, luck may have
played against him with a .331 BABIP and 19.7 HR/FB Rate. Even though he became more homer prone
he was able increase his K/9 to 8.08, up from 5.33 last year. Last year he threw less fastballs and threw
the curveball and slider more – 6.8% and 6.5% more respectively. Hitters hit .353 against his fastball, so
he had to adapt and make adjustments, which is a quality I love the most about players.
Alexi Ogando
Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Rangers | Position: SP | RK: 66 (210)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
26
41.7
4
39
16
1.30
1.13
22.8%
9.4%
.257
92.9%
6.7%
26.1%
45.2%
2011
MLB
27
169
13
126
43
3.51
1.14
18.2%
6.2%
.266
71.3%
10.3%
30.2%
38.0%
2012
MLB
28
66
2
66
17
3.27
1.00
25.1%
6.5%
.237
75.8%
14.8%
34.3%
38.8%
It looks as though the Rangers are going to move Ogando back to the rotation. They know the player
more than I do but I’m afraid of yo-yoing players from the bullpen to the rotation and vice versa. The
reason is because each role requires a specific mind set and game plan. Look what happened to Neftali
Feliz when they yo-yoed him. Ogando is a two pitch pitcher. He’s got an electric fastball and a good
slider. When he was the starter in 2011 he gave up a lot of fly balls, 21st most in the league. I don’t see
any upside with him. If you draft him expect what he posted in 2011.
Jarrod Parker
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
AA
20
78.3
4
74
34
3.68
1.48
21.9%
10.1%
.351
73.2%
5.0%
17.3%
55.8%
2011
AA
22
130.7
11
112
55
3.79
1.28
42.6%
20.9%
.237
69.6%
17.5%
22.9%
54.9%
2012
AAA
23
20.7
1
21
6
2.18
1.35
24.1%
6.9%
.345
87.3%
16.7%
20.0%
55.0%
2012
MLB
23
181.3
13
140
63
3.47
1.26
18.6%
8.4%
.290
74.3%
8.5%
23.9%
45.3%
I love Parker. He’s an aggressive pitcher who consistently challenges hitters with his fastball and
changeup with the occasional slider and curveball. His changeup was so good it had fourth highest whiff
percentage, behind Stephen Strasburg, Cole Hamels, and Kris Medlen. Expectations have to be
tempered for 2013. It’s highly unlikely his maintains a HR/FB rate of 6/8% and a LOB% of 74.3%. It’s
worth noting his post all-star numbers were worse compared to before the all-star break. I chalk it up to
being tired for two reasons: A) it was second season back from TJ surgery and B) he threw 50 innings
more than he’s ever thrown before in his career.
Felipe Paulino
Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Royals | Position: SP | RK: 132 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
MLB
26
91.7
1
83
46
5.11
1.54
20.2%
11.2%
.332
58.5%
4.1%
34.9%
45.3%
2011
MLB
27
139.3
4
133
55
4.46
1.44
22.2%
9.2%
.341
70.8%
11.7%
27.5%
46.7%
2012
AA
28
13.3
1
14
4
4.05
1.20
25.0%
7.1%
.257
84.7%
30.0%
26.3%
47.4%
2012
MLB
28
37.7
3
39
15
1.67
1.22
25.0%
9.6%
.283
90.9%
8.8%
33.3%
44.1%
Unfortunately, Paulino will miss at least half of the season recovering from TJ surgery. Fantasy players in
keeper leagues should hold on to him because he flat out misses a ton of bats, but he shouldn’t be
drafted in any one year leagues.
Jake Peavy
Throws: R | Age: 32 | Team: White Sox | Position: SP | RK: 20 (77)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
28
101.7
9
110
34
3.45
1.12
26.8%
8.3%
.280
71.3%
10.8%
28.0%
45.1%
2010
MLB
29
107
7
93
34
4.63
1.23
20.7%
7.6%
.279
69.0%
11.8%
34.6%
42.8%
2011
MLB
30
111.7
7
95
24
4.92
1.26
20.2%
5.1%
.317
63.8%
10.8%
26.7%
39.9%
2012
MLB
31
219
11
194
49
3.37
1.10
22.0%
5.6%
.272
76.3%
12.3%
34.9%
37.3%
For the first time in five years Peavy threw for more than 200 innings in a season. With a 76.3% LOB%
and a BABIP of .272 luck was definitely on his side and is likely to regress in 2013. Writing off Peavy as an
injury risk is an over simplification; since the end of June 2011 he’s been healthy and hasn’t missed a
start. He was unlucky in 2011 and lucky in 2012, I expect a blend of the two seasons with an ERA in the
high three’s and 180 Ks.
Wily Peralta
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
22
119.7
9
117
48
3.46
1.29
62.2%
25.5%
.267
69.5%
22.5%
33.3%
50.0%
2011
AAA
22
31
2
40
11
2.03
1.03
41.2%
11.3%
.274
78.8%
0.0%
22.6%
50.0%
2012
AAA
23
146.7
7
143
78
4.66
1.58
22.2%
12.1%
.352
70.9%
11.0%
19.6%
54.2%
2012
MLB
23
29
2
23
11
2.48
1.21
20.4%
9.7%
.304
77.1%
0.0%
20.3%
57.0%
Peralta is a power pitcher who has a body to log 200+ innings; he features a fastball that sits in the mid90s, which has topped out at 98 mph. He has a solid plus slider, which is sharp and thrown in the mid80s. His changeup/splitter flashes fringe average, but he has trouble commanding it, which has some
evaluators seeing him as a power reliever. Overall, his command comes and goes which can leave him
vulnerable to the big inning, especially while playing at home. He’s currently going as the 104th pitcher in
NFBC drafts, which is a great value.
Andy Pettitte
Throws: L | Age: 41 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP | RK: 79 (283)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2008
MLB
36
204
14
158
55
4.54
1.41
17.9%
6.2%
.333
68.2%
12.8%
22.5%
52.1%
2009
MLB
37
194.7
14
148
76
4.16
1.38
17.7%
9.1%
.295
70.2%
12.0%
27.4%
43.9%
2010
MLB
38
129
11
101
41
3.28
1.27
18.8%
7.6%
.291
77.3%
12.5%
26.7%
45.9%
2012
MLB
40
75.3
5
69
21
2.87
1.14
22.8%
6.9%
.278
80.2%
17.4%
21.6%
56.3%
After taking a year off, Pettitte decided to come back and pitch for the Yankees yet again. When he was
healthy he looked really good, posting a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 22.8% strikeout percentage and a 6.9 walk
percentage. Again, that was when he was healthy. He missed a substantial amount of time with a
fractured left fibula. His fastball velocity was slower in 2012 (1.44 mph slower) compared to 2010, but
his command of the strike zone was identical to the 2010 season. At the end of the day, it’s hard for me
to trust a 41 year old pitching in the AL East.
Martin Perez
Throws: L | Age: 21 | Team: Rangers | Position: SP | RK: 129 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
20
88.3
4
83
36
3.16
1.31
46.6%
20.2%
.308
75.5%
16.2%
31.1%
44.5%
2011
AAA
20
49
4
37
20
6.43
1.88
15.6%
8.4%
.000
62.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2012
AAA
21
127
7
69
56
4.25
1.40
12.7%
10.3%
.277
66.7%
8.1%
29.8%
51.4%
2012
MLB
21
38
1
25
15
5.45
1.63
14.1%
8.5%
.333
63.5%
8.8%
25.2%
50.4%
If the Rangers do not add Kyle Lohse, Perez looks to be a shoe-in for the number 5 spot in the Rangers
rotation. His Triple-A numbers the past two years really bad, but don’t overlook the fact he was 20 and
21 years old. Most players that age are lucky to be in High-A at that age. From everything I’ve read is
elite stuff has taken a big hit; also his command of those pitches has disintegrated. It appears his poor
performance has been purely mental instead physical, which breads optimism for me. He still has the
stuff to be a number 2 starter, but is a long way away from reaching that ceiling. He’s worth a flier in
leagues with deep benches.
Michael Pineda
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP | RK: 133 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
A+
20
44.3
4
48
6
2.84
0.79
22.6%
2.8%
.299
67.9%
5.7%
35.8%
52.7%
2010
AA
21
77
8
78
17
2.22
1.09
25.0%
5.4%
.306
75.1%
1.8%
26.3%
45.2%
2010
AAA
21
62.3
3
76
17
4.77
1.14
29.6%
6.6%
.290
66.8%
18.4%
29.7%
40.6%
2011
MLB
22
171
9
173
55
3.74
1.10
24.9%
7.9%
.258
69.7%
11.9%
32.5%
38.8%
Pineda had a shoulder injury that kept him out for all of 2012 and will likely keep him out of the first half
of 2013. Unless you’re in a keeper league you cannot draft him. Even if he comes back in July we have
no idea how good or bad he’ll be.
Drew Pomeranz
Throws: L | Age: 24 | Team: Rockies | Position: SP | RK: 110 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
22
24
1
24
6
1.50
0.75
52.2%
13.0%
.202
84.3%
7.1%
48.3%
24.1%
2011
MLB
22
18.3
2
13
5
5.40
1.31
16.9%
6.5%
.328
56.0%
0.0%
13.8%
50.0%
2012
AAA
23
46.7
4
46
20
2.51
1.54
21.7%
9.4%
.347
70.8%
4.7%
29.3%
55.8%
2012
MLB
23
96.7
2
83
46
4.93
1.48
19.1%
10.6%
.289
70.6%
18.2%
25.3%
45.4%
The highly touted prospect struggled again in 2012. He did however have a 7.73 K/9 so he was missing
bats. Baseball America, in their 2012 Prospect Handbook, gave an OFP (overall future potential) of a
number two starter, which is awfully high. His knuckle curve can be a 65 in bursts and because of his
delivery, his fastball looks faster to hitters. For example, his fastball sits 90-92 and can touch 95 mph,
but from a hitter’s point of view, it looks about two mph faster. However, he doesn’t have command of
his changeup or a put away pitch. If he learned the slider or a different variation of the changeup, he
could ultimately be a number two starter. But as of now, I’m staying away until he shows sustained
success.
David Price
Throws: L | Age: 27 | Team: Rays | Position: SP | RK: 4 (18)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
128.3
10
102
54
4.42
1.35
18.3%
9.7%
.268
68.5%
14.0%
30.5%
42.8%
2010
MLB
24
208.7
19
188
79
2.72
1.19
21.8%
9.2%
.270
78.5%
8.6%
29.5%
45.3%
2011
MLB
25
224.3
12
218
63
3.49
1.14
23.7%
6.9%
.281
73.3%
11.8%
29.8%
45.1%
2012
MLB
26
211
20
205
59
2.56
1.10
24.5%
7.1%
.285
81.1%
13.2%
21.3%
53.4%
Even though Price became more efficient in 2012, throwing almost one less pitch per inning, he was able
to increase his strikeout percentage from the previous year. It could be an over simplification to state his
81% LOB% will regress to the mean, but he induced more ground balls and less fly balls so that could be
more conducive to a higher LOB% average. He may regress a little bit, but he still plays one of the
friendliest pitchers parks in the league and will have a better defense, specifically on the left side of the
infield, playing behind him.
Erasmo Ramirez
Year
2011
LVL
AA
AGE
21
IP
110.3
W
7
SO
81
BB
19
ERA
4.73
WHIP
1.32
SO%
16.8%
BB%
4.0%
BABIP
0.000
LOB%
57.1%
HR/FB
-
FB%
0.0%
GB%
0.0%
2011
AAA
21
42.3
3
35
13
5.1
1.51
26.5%
9.8%
0.337
64.6%
16.7%
25.3%
37.9%
2012
AAA
22
77.3
6
58
18
3.72
1.28
17.1%
5.3%
0.299
60.4%
7.0%
27.4%
47.9%
2012
MLB
22
59
1
48
12
3.36
1.00
20.2%
5.0%
0.243
67.2%
12.8%
26.9%
41.1%
He had 21st highest swing and miss rate among pitchers with at least 500 pitches thrown. The biggest
thing working against is something he cannot control; his height. At only 5’11 he doesn’t get a lot of
plane and doesn’t have much deception with his fastball, which sits 90-94. He has plus control and fills
the zone, but needs to sharpen his command. He has a solid average changeup, a slider and show me
breaking ball. He has what it takes to be solid number 5 starter and is a great streaming option if the
matchup is favorable.
Clayton Richard
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
153
9
114
71
4.41
1.47
17.2%
10.7%
.299
72.0%
13.5%
26.5%
50.7%
2010
MLB
26
201.7
14
153
78
3.75
1.41
17.8%
9.1%
.311
74.9%
9.0%
28.2%
46.6%
2011
MLB
27
99.7
5
53
38
3.88
1.42
12.4%
8.9%
.294
69.3%
9.9%
24.2%
51.9%
2012
MLB
28
218.7
14
107
42
3.99
1.23
11.8%
4.6%
.272
71.4%
16.1%
25.4%
54.5%
The best thing I like about Richard is that he plays his home games in Petco Park. At home he had a 3.02
ERA. On the road he had a 4.74 ERA. The biggest reason why there’s a big discrepancy is the home runs,
allowing 10 at home compared to 21 on the road. Fantasy owners should only start him when he pitches
at home.
Wandy Rodriguez
Throws: L | Age: 34 | Team: Astros | Position: SP | RK: 116 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
30
205.7
14
193
63
3.02
1.24
22.7%
7.4%
.302
79.4%
11.9%
30.1%
46.7%
2010
MLB
31
195
11
178
68
3.60
1.29
21.7%
8.3%
.304
69.4%
11.8%
24.0%
49.2%
2011
MLB
32
191
11
166
69
3.49
1.31
20.5%
8.5%
.289
79.2%
15.9%
27.6%
46.8%
2012
MLB
33
205.7
12
139
56
3.76
1.27
15.9%
6.4%
.280
70.3%
11.9%
25.9%
50.1%
For the past three seasons Rodriguez was a staple of all my fantasy teams because he offered an ERA
below 3.50 with 180 Ks. However, last year he posted the lowest K/9 (6.08) since his rookie year in 2005.
As his strikeouts decreased, the number of ground balls and walks increased. If he’s not providing 150+
Ks he may be only good enough to be the last starter in your lineup.
Ricky Romero
Throws: L | Age: 28 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: SP | RK: 53 (177)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
178
13
141
79
4.30
1.52
18.3%
10.2%
.333
75.4%
17.1%
19.4%
55.2%
2010
MLB
25
210
14
174
82
3.73
1.29
19.7%
9.3%
.289
70.2%
11.9%
20.4%
55.7%
2011
MLB
26
225
15
178
80
2.92
1.14
19.4%
8.7%
.242
79.2%
15.1%
26.6%
55.7%
2012
MLB
27
181
9
124
105
5.77
1.67
15.0%
12.7%
.311
67.3%
16.9%
21.0%
54.6%
I was all-in on Romero last year in one of my jelly bean leagues. I thought 2012 would be the year he
becomes elite. Before 2012 his ERA and WHIP decreased year-over-year, while his K/9 and BB/99 were
essentially the same. Needless to say, I had high hopes. But he had one of the worst seasons for any
starter last year, posting a 5.77 ERA, 5.22 BB/9 and 1.67 WHIP. His fastball velocity was down 0.8 mph
compared to 2011, but it was still harder than 2010, so the problem was either confidence or
mechanics. After reading Doug Thorburn’s article on Baseball Prospectus I don’t believe his troubles
were purely mechanical. Instead, most of the reason for his demise was a lack of confidence. Romero is
someone I’ll target again.
Trevor Rosenthal
Throws: R | Age: 23 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP/RP | RK: 130 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
A
21
120.3
7
133
39
4.11
1.25
26.1%
7.7%
0.000
65.9%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2012
AA
22
94
8
83
37
2.78
1.11
21.9%
9.8%
0.243
74.8%
7.5%
31.1%
46.7%
2012
AAA
22
15
0
21
5
4.2
1.07
35.6%
8.5%
0.313
66.3%
25.0%
11.8%
61.8%
2012
MLB
22
22.7
0
25
7
2.78
0.93
28.1%
7.9%
0.222
78.1%
18.2%
19.3%
56.1%
Rosenthal began the year in Double-A as a low end prospect, but at the end of the year he was getting
extremely important outs during the playoffs, where he struck out 15 batters in 8.67 innings for the
Cardinals. His fastball is a legit 80 grade; in short bursts it can be 97-100 mph, but if he’s starting it takes
a dip, but not that much (93-97). He didn’t use his curveball, changeup or slider very much in the majors
so it’s difficult to evaluate. It’s mid-February right now and his place on the Cardinals roster is in
question. He could be in the rotation or the bullpen. If he starts the year as a starter, he’s a borderline
top 35-40 starting pitcher. If he joins the bullpen he’s going to be an elite closer.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Throws: L | Age: 25 | Team: Dodgers| Position: SP | RK: 82 (294)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
KBO
22
201.2
18
204
52
2.23
1.05
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2010
KBO
23
211
17
178
68
2.94
1.25
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2011
KBO
24
165.2
14
143
67
3.31
1.27
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2012
KBO
25
189.1
13
188
67
3.57
1.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
After the Dodgers paid a posting fee of $25.7M to negotiate with the Korean southpaw, they signed him
to a six-year, $36 million contract. His fastball sits 88-92 and can touch higher in bursts. His changeup is
a plus pitch that can miss bats at the major league level. His breaking ball and slider are maybe fringe
average. He’s going to need sharp command to be successful at the Major League level. Lucky for him
he’ll pitch most of his games in the pitcher friendly confines of the NL West. Also, the Dodgers are
loaded in with pitching depth so do not be surprised he ends up in the bullpen.
CC Sabathia
Throws: L | Age: 32 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP | RK: 13 (48)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
28
230
19
197
67
3.37
1.15
21.0%
7.1%
.277
71.4%
10.1%
26.8%
44.5%
2010
MLB
29
237.7
21
197
74
3.18
1.19
20.3%
7.6%
.281
75.6%
11.5%
25.1%
51.6%
2011
MLB
30
237.3
19
230
61
3.00
1.23
23.4%
6.2%
.318
77.0%
9.6%
25.8%
49.1%
2012
MLB
31
200
15
197
44
3.38
1.14
23.6%
5.3%
.288
71.6%
13.8%
27.4%
50.4%
Prior to last year part of the allure of drafting Sabathia was his durability. Even though he was drafted as
a top 5 pitcher, fantasy owners knew he may not end the year in the top 5, but they knew he was money
in the bank to be a top 10 pitcher. However, after two stints on the DL (muscle strain in left leg and
stiffness in pitching elbow), he has become an injury concern. However, upon returning from the last DL
stint, he looked great, posting a 3.07 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, and 4% walk rate in 79.2 innings. Last
year his fastball dropped 1.64 mph to 92.54, which could have been a result of the injuries, but it’s
something to monitor in spring training. The injuries last year may allow fantasy owners to draft him at a
discount; his stuff still looks great.
Chris Sale
Throws: L | Age: 24 | Team: White Sox | Position: SP | RK: 24 (87)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AAA
21
6.3
0
15
4
2.86
1.11
68.2%
18.2%
.250
119%
200%
20.0%
60.0%
2010
MLB
21
23.3
2
32
10
1.93
1.07
34.8%
10.9%
.271
90.1%
18.2%
22.0%
52.0%
2011
MLB
22
71
2
79
27
2.79
1.11
27.4%
9.4%
.264
81.3%
14.3%
23.3%
51.7%
2012
MLB
23
192
17
192
51
3.05
1.14
24.9%
6.6%
.294
80.0%
14.7%
24.7%
45.5%
Despite for the few bizarre days he was the closer, Sale was mainstay in the White Sox rotation, posting
a 3.05 ERA with a 192 Ks. The biggest concern I have is the risk for injury. I’ll say right now it’s a cop-out
to use injury as a concern with pitchers because anyone can get hurt regardless of their mechanics.
There have been pitchers with “bad” mechanics who never got hurt and pitchers with clean mechanics
who had persistent arm problems. Sale has already experienced elbow discomfort and his mechanics
don’t look free and easy like a Neftali Feliz. Unless he slips into the 30s among pitchers, I’m staying
away. If you told me he was guaranteed to make 32 starts, he’s a top 15 pitcher.
Jeff Samardzija
Throws: R | Age: 28 | Team: Cubs | Position: SP | RK: 28 (98)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
34.7
1
21
15
7.53
1.76
13.0%
9.3%
.333
63.2%
17.1%
33.1%
44.4%
2010
MLB
25
19.3
2
9
20
8.38
2.12
9.0%
20.0%
.262
56.1%
14.3%
40.6%
30.4%
2011
MLB
26
88
8
87
50
2.97
1.30
22.9%
13.2%
.253
75.0%
7.4%
28.6%
42.9%
2012
MLB
27
174.7
9
180
56
3.81
1.22
24.9%
7.7%
.296
73.0%
13.8%
29.7%
46.7%
The converted reliever performed above expectations in his first year as a starter posting a 9.27 K/9,
1.22 WHIP and 3.81 ERA. I’m happy his 12.8% HR/FB inflated his ERA because it means I may be able to
draft him two or three rounds later than he should go. Based on Whiff rate, he owns the best splitter in
the game (43.87%) among starting pitchers. Since last year was his first year starting he was put on an
innings cap. Entering 2013 the cap should no longer be in play.
Anibal Sanchez
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
86
4
71
46
3.87
1.51
18.5%
12.0%
.290
78.6%
12.7%
29.8%
44.2%
2010
MLB
26
195
13
157
70
3.55
1.34
18.7%
8.3%
.305
70.6%
6.3%
26.0%
47.4%
2011
MLB
27
196.3
8
202
64
3.67
1.28
24.3%
7.7%
.310
75.0%
14.6%
24.5%
46.2%
2012
MLB
28
195.7
9
167
48
3.86
1.27
20.4%
5.9%
.310
70.2%
13.5%
24.6%
48.4%
After a year of 202 Ks and a strikeout rate of 24%, fantasy owners drafted Sanchez on the potential of a
repeat of those numbers. Instead of getting the 2011 version, they got the 2010 version; a solid
strikeout pitcher with a high three ERA. His decrease in Ks and increase in groundballs was not a result
of a trade to the Tigers. Instead it came from him using the slider, his strikeout pitch, less and utilizing
his cutter more. The best stat his is walk percentage has decreased year-over-year the past three
seasons (2.21 in 2012). He’s not a sexy player but even if he gets a little lucky with the BABIP or LOB% he
could be a top 25 fantasy pitcher.
Ervin Santana
Throws: R | Age: 30 | Team: Royals | Position: SP | RK: 94 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
26
139.7
8
107
47
5.03
1.47
17.4%
7.7%
.318
72.9%
15.5%
34.5%
39.6%
2010
MLB
27
222.7
17
169
73
3.92
1.32
17.7%
7.7%
.289
75.3%
11.2%
34.6%
36.9%
2011
MLB
28
228.7
11
178
72
3.38
1.22
18.8%
7.6%
.272
76.6%
11.5%
32.7%
45.4%
2012
MLB
29
178
9
133
61
5.16
1.27
17.4%
8.0%
.241
69.8%
21.8%
31.9%
45.3%
Santana sucked last year. He was awful. It was hard to see how he used to be an above average pitcher
the past two years. Entering 2013 Santana joins a newly revamped Royals rotation. His fastball dropped
in velocity one mph compared to 2010 and the batting average has been exactly the same. His slider, his
best secondary pitch, has also maintained its velocity and movement. I believe Santana was unlucky last
year, specifically with his 18.9% HR/FB rate. Am I saying he’s going to contend for the CY Young? No. But
this is someone who you’ll be able to get in the last round who can provide 170 Ks, 3.90 ERA and 1.3
WHIP.
Johan Santana
Throws: R | Age: 34 | Team: Mets | Position: SP | RK: 83 (295)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2008
MLB
29
234.3
16
206
63
2.53
1.15
21.4%
6.5%
.274
82.6%
12.3%
27.1%
43.7%
2009
MLB
30
166.7
13
146
46
3.13
1.21
20.8%
6.6%
.280
78.0%
13.8%
28.6%
38.1%
2010
MLB
31
199
11
144
55
2.98
1.18
17.6%
6.7%
.272
79.1%
8.0%
32.5%
37.1%
2012
MLB
33
117
6
111
39
4.85
1.33
22.2%
7.8%
.301
68.8%
15.0%
32.4%
34.7%
For the first three months it was vintage Santana with a 2.76 ERA and striking out 23.5% of batters. His
season was cut short with lower back inflammation, which caused his performance to decline
dramatically. He’s expected to be fully healthy to start the year. He’s currently going as the 91st starting
pitcher at Mock Draft Central, which is a steal. Last year he showed he still has what it takes to be a solid
number 3 fantasy starter. Draft him knowing you have to cut him as soon as he starts to show sustained
poor performances. He’s likely to begin the year on the DL so only draft him if you have a deep bench.
Max Scherzer
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
24
170.3
9
174
63
4.12
1.34
23.5%
8.5%
.308
68.7%
12.5%
32.3%
43.2%
2010
MLB
25
195.7
12
184
70
3.50
1.25
23.0%
8.8%
.297
74.9%
13.4%
27.6%
42.1%
2011
MLB
26
195
15
174
56
4.43
1.35
20.9%
6.7%
.314
73.7%
15.9%
30.5%
41.7%
2012
MLB
27
187.7
16
231
60
3.74
1.27
29.4%
7.6%
.333
76.5%
14.6%
32.1%
38.6%
Scherzer is one of the most maddening pitchers in fantasy. In one start he can go eight innings, allow
zero runs and strikeout 12. The next start he could go two innings and give up seven runs with zero
strikeouts. The quality of his stuff is undeniable. When he’s on, he can be one of the best pitchers in the
game, but when he’s not, he looks like Gil Heredia. He’s the type of pitcher you draft and leave him in
your lineup regardless of past performance and/or matchup. His fastball velocity increased one mph,
which coincided with a substantial increase his strikeout rate. If maintains this velocity, the strikeouts he
showed in 2012 are for real.
James Shields
Throws: R | Age: 31 | Team: Royals | Position: SP | RK: 29 (103)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
27
219.7
11
167
52
4.14
1.32
18.0%
5.6%
.308
71.2%
14.2%
28.7%
43.3%
2010
MLB
28
203.3
13
187
51
5.18
1.46
20.8%
5.7%
.341
68.4%
17.9%
29.0%
42.2%
2011
MLB
29
249.3
16
225
65
2.82
1.04
23.1%
6.7%
.258
79.6%
13.2%
28.9%
46.8%
2012
MLB
30
227.7
15
223
58
3.52
1.17
23.6%
6.1%
.292
71.9%
16.4%
23.3%
53.3%
The one thing the Royals needed the most in order to contend in a weak division was starting pitching.
Dayton Moore believes he significantly upgraded the pitching staff with the trade for Shields and Wade
Davis. His changeup is an easy plus pitch with a solid average curveball. His fastball can be very hittable
at times; it’s no wonder his fastball usage has gone down year-over-year for three seasons. Unless he
maintains the career high strikeout rate he showed last year Shields is going to regress because of two
reasons: A) moving from a pitchers park to a neutral park and B) the quality of defense behind him is
going to be lower.
Tyler Skaggs
Throws: L | Age: 21 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | RK: 76 (263)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
19
57.7
4
73
15
2.50
1.04
61.3%
12.6%
.370
74.5%
14.8%
36.5%
44.6%
2012
AA
20
69.7
5
71
21
2.84
1.21
24.7%
7.3%
.294
78.6%
13.3%
30.6%
44.9%
2012
AAA
20
52.7
4
45
16
2.91
1.23
21.2%
7.5%
.308
72.8%
10.3%
25.8%
47.0%
2012
MLB
20
29.3
1
21
13
5.83
1.47
15.8%
9.8%
.264
68.3%
18.2%
34.0%
36.1%
Unlike Wade Miley, Skaggs enters training camp as the Diamondbacks number one prospect (according
to Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law) and therefore, comes with a lot of fantasy hype. Like Miley,
Skaggs throws a ton of strikes and has a body to throw a lot of innings. Two years ago his fastball
velocity ticked up where he’s now sitting in the low 90s and can touch 94 mph. Even though he sits in
the low 90s, his delivery makes the batters feel like its two to three mph faster than what it really is. His
curveball is his best secondary pitch. It’s a traditional 12-6 curveball that has excellent depth and can
range between 74-78 mph. His changeup will flash plus (above average) with good fading action. If he
can improve his command of either his fastball or if the changeup can become a true 60 pitch he could
be a high end number three starter, which is the highest of any pitcher on the Diamondbacks.
Drew Smyly
Throws: L | Age: 21 | Team: Tigers | Position: SP | RK: 128 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
A+
22
80.3
7
77
21
2.58
1.15
55.8%
15.2%
.378
67.3%
3.2%
31.6%
45.9%
2011
AA
22
45.7
4
53
15
1.18
1.03
29.8%
8.4%
.000
81.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2012
AAA
23
17.7
0
25
8
6.11
1.69
30.1%
9.6%
.413
67.2%
23.1%
26.5%
34.7%
2012
MLB
23
99.3
4
94
33
3.99
1.27
22.6%
7.9%
.295
71.0%
12.6%
33.1%
41.8%
Despite a great minor league strikeout rate in the minors, he doesn’t have great stuff. Opposed to
having miss bat stuff he relies a lot on hitting his spots. He attacks all four corners of the zone. His
fastball sits in the high 80s, but can hit 91 a few times. He throws a slider, curveball and changeup but
none of them are a plus pitch yet. However, he does a great job of repeating his delivery, which makes it
hard for batters to pick-up what he’s throwing. He will most likely start the year in Triple-A, but will be
the first call-up the Tigers make if someone were to get hurt in the starting rotation.
Dan Straily
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
A+
22
160.7
11
154
40
3.87
1.24
37.0%
9.6%
.305
68.0%
10.8%
32.4%
49.8%
2012
AA
23
85.3
3
108
23
3.38
1.09
31.1%
6.6%
.312
69.2%
8.3%
34.1%
43.6%
2012
AAA
23
66.7
6
82
19
2.03
0.88
32.2%
7.5%
.247
80.6%
6.7%
29.4%
40.5%
2012
MLB
23
39.3
2
32
16
3.89
1.32
18.6%
9.3%
.225
90.7%
26.2%
34.4%
31.1%
The minor league strikeout leader found his way to the A’s starting rotation in early August. He
performed fairly well in seven starts posting a 3.89 ERA, 7.32 K/9 and 3.18 B/9. His fastball sits between
91-93 mph and can touch 94. Both his slider and changeup are both plus pitches that can miss bats
because of his plus command. However, if he doesn’t have command of his pitches he can become very
hittable. I hope he makes the big league club to start the year because he’s a better pitcher than both
A.J. Griffin and Tommy Milone, but unless there’s an injury, Straily will find himself in Triple-A.
Stephen Strasburg
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AA
22
6
1
4
0
0.00
0.17
21.1%
0.0%
.000
100%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
AAA
22
5
0
7
0
1.80
0.40
41.2%
0.0%
.200
50.0%
0.0%
10.0%
80.0%
2011
MLB
22
24
1
24
2
1.50
0.71
27.3%
2.3%
.242
70.6%
0.0%
32.3%
41.9%
2012
MLB
23
159.3
15
197
48
3.16
1.16
30.2%
7.4%
.311
75.4%
13.8%
26.8%
44.2%
With the innings cap nonsense out of the way, Strasburg is primed for a CY Young year. Jordan
Zimmermann, who had TJ surgery one season prior to Strasburg’s was able to pitch 195 innings last year.
I expect the Nationals will allow Strasburg to pitch the same number of innings. I love Strasburg for two
reasons: A) it often takes to get full command of their pitches after TJ surgery and B) owns the best
changeup and the best raw stuff in the game. We’ve just seen the beginning of how good he can be.
Julio Teheran
Throws: R | Age: 22 | Team: Braves | Position: SP | RK: 88 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
AAA
20
144.7
15
122
48
2.55
1.18
20.7%
8.1%
.000
76.9%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
20
19.7
1
10
8
5.03
1.47
11.5%
9.2%
.262
76.9%
16.0%
36.2%
30.4%
2012
AAA
21
131
7
97
43
5.08
1.44
16.8%
7.5%
.318
68.8%
13.6%
31.4%
37.5%
2012
MLB
21
6.3
0
5
1
5.68
0.95
20.8%
4.2%
.278
33.3%
0.0%
33.3%
22.2%
Some fans could say Teheran’s 2012 season (in Triple-A) was a disappointment, but remember he was
only 21, an extremely young age for the level. Most prospects his age are in A-ball at 21. His season may
have been a disappointment, but maybe expectations were too high to begin with. He has a plus fastball
that sits at 91-94 mph, touching 95. His changeup works between 79-82 mph with late movement. His
curveball is the key for Teheran; last year he didn’t have great success commanding it. It looks as though
he may win a spot in the Braves rotation. If he does, I expect there will be a lot of growing pains.
Chris Tillman
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Orioles | Position: SP | RK: 68 (212)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
MLB
23
62
3
46
25
5.52
1.65
16.0%
8.7%
.348
65.7%
7.6%
31.1%
40.6%
2012
AA
24
3.3
0
2
2
8.10
1.82
13.3%
13.3%
.364
50.0%
0.0%
27.3%
36.4%
2012
AAA
24
89.3
8
92
30
3.63
1.29
24.3%
7.9%
.323
73.9%
7.7%
25.7%
50.6%
2012
MLB
24
86
9
66
24
2.93
1.05
19.0%
6.9%
.221
71.4%
12.6%
37.1%
35.5%
After being yo-yoed from the minors to the majors Tillman got another call up in early July and put really
good accounting stats with a 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. However, those stats were greatly aided by a .221
BABIP. At times he can extremely dominant and at other times he looks completely lost. The fact he can
dominant suggests the potential exists for him to be a consistent, successful pitcher. Based on even
smaller sample sizes he performed the best against teams with a winning percentage below .500.
Proceed with caution.
Opponent Winning %
>.500
<.500
Innings
32.7
51
H
26
40
HR
7
5
BB
11
13
SO
27
39
ERA
3.91
2.47
Jacob Turner
Throws: R | Age: 21 | Team: Tigers | Position: SP | RK: 96 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2011
MLB
20
12.7
0
8
4
8.53
1.65
13.3%
6.7%
.318
50.6%
23.1%
27.7%
42.6%
2012
A+
21
21.7
1
17
7
1.66
1.11
19.8%
8.1%
.267
72.0%
7.1%
23.0%
52.5%
2012
AAA
21
90
6
56
36
2.80
1.28
15.0%
9.6%
.273
79.0%
5.6%
25.4%
51.6%
2012
MLB
21
55
2
36
16
4.42
1.20
15.6%
6.9%
.241
63.7%
17.0%
29.6%
46.9%
While in high school Turner’s fastball sat at 97 mph and could touch 99. Last year the four-seam fastball
sat between 90-94; he added a two-seamer that’s thrown with just about the same velocity as the fourseamer. Like Teheran, he was extremely young for the level (the majors or Triple-A) and had to make
adjustments against players three or more years older than him. His curveball and changeup both have
plus potential, but he still has to refine his command. I hope he starts 2013 in Triple-A so he can refine
his command in anonymity, but if he plays in the big leagues he’ll have some growing pains which could
punctuated by a couple of blowup starts.
Jason Vargas
Throws: L | Age: 30 | Team: Angels | Position: SP | RK: 104 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
26
91.7
3
54
24
4.91
1.33
14.0%
6.2%
.285
70.2%
17.2%
30.6%
38.5%
2010
MLB
27
192.7
9
116
54
3.78
1.25
14.3%
6.7%
.272
72.0%
8.5%
33.0%
36.6%
2011
MLB
28
201
10
131
59
4.25
1.31
15.3%
6.9%
.285
68.7%
11.2%
29.7%
38.9%
2012
MLB
29
217.3
14
141
55
3.85
1.18
15.9%
6.2%
.254
78.6%
16.4%
30.9%
41.7%
Vargas came over to the Angels in the offseason for the Kendrys Morales trade. The biggest problem
with Vargas were the 35 home runs he allowed (2nd most in the league). His home-road splits are really
alarming. At home he posted a 2.74 ERA while on the road it was 4.78. He’s a command and control
pitcher with fringe stuff that benefited greatly from the spacious confines in Seattle. The Angels ballpark
is still a pitcher friendly ballpark and will have the best defensive outfield in the league, but he’s
streaming pitcher at best.
Justin Verlander
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
26
240
19
269
63
3.45
1.18
27.4%
6.4%
.319
72.7%
10.4%
30.0%
37.5%
2010
MLB
27
224.3
18
219
71
3.37
1.16
23.7%
7.7%
.286
71.9%
8.3%
26.7%
42.2%
2011
MLB
28
251
24
250
57
2.40
0.92
25.8%
5.9%
.236
80.3%
11.3%
32.3%
41.6%
2012
MLB
29
238.3
17
239
60
2.64
1.06
25.0%
6.3%
.273
76.4%
10.7%
27.3%
43.3%
Just like the adage, “no one has ever been fired for buying IBM.” The same is true for Justin Verlander.
He officially supplanted Roy Halladay as the best pitcher in baseball. All the underlying stats show no
regression is coming. What could be a concern is the number of innings he’s thrown in his career and
specifically, the last two years. He’s averaged 232 innings the past seven years and has pitched 250+
innings the past two years. That’s a minor quibble, he’s the best pitcher in baseball.
Ryan Vogelsong
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AAA
32
36.7
1
37
22
4.66
1.88
-
-
.402
70.8%
-
-
-
2010
AAA
32
58.7
2
73
40
4.91
1.70
-
-
.346
68.7%
-
-
-
2011
MLB
33
179.7
13
139
61
2.71
1.25
18.5%
8.1%
0.280
80.4%
10.7%
25.6%
48.1%
2012
MLB
34
189.7
14
158
62
3.37
1.23
20.1%
7.9%
0.284
76.0%
10.1%
29.9%
44.5%
Before August Vogelsong was one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 2.46 ERA, 8 wins and 94 Ks. But
then August and September happened; he became more hittable and posted a 6.50 ERA. A big reason
for this was he wasn’t locating his curveball in the strike zone. When he was good 59% of his curveballs
were in the strike zone compared to only 42% in August and September. He’s been very good a locating
the curveball the past two years, but if he can’t locate it, hitters sit dead red on the fastball and light him
up like a Christmas tree. His season totals may make him a bargain, but at the very least fantasy owners
won’t have to overpay to get him. He still pitches in one of the best pitchers parks in the game.
Edinson Volquez
Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Padres | Position: SP | RK: 97 (N/A)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
25
49.7
4
47
32
4.35
1.33
21.6%
14.7%
.219
73.5%
21.4%
20.9%
47.0%
2010
MLB
26
62.7
4
67
35
4.31
1.50
24.4%
12.7%
.323
75.6%
14.0%
25.3%
57.1%
2011
MLB
27
108.7
5
104
65
5.71
1.57
21.3%
13.3%
.293
69.4%
24.7%
24.1%
54.9%
2012
MLB
28
182.7
11
174
105
4.14
1.45
21.7%
13.1%
.292
73.1%
11.4%
23.7%
52.3%
In his first year with the Padres Volquez had a much better year compared to 2011, but it was still a
down year. He became less homer prone and dropped his ERA from 5.71 to 4.14. He’s biggest flaw is his
command, leading him to walk a lot hitters (he was second in the league in walks). I have a hard time
trusting someone who gives free passes to that many hitters per outing. He’ll be three years removed
from TJ surgery so there is hope he can make it back to his 2008 form. He’s worth a flier at the end of
drafts because it’s possible, albeit a very small chance, he could return to top 20 status.
Adam Wainwright
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2008
MLB
26
132
11
91
34
3.20
1.18
16.7%
6.3%
.272
75.9%
11.7%
24.8%
46.6%
2009
MLB
27
233
19
212
66
2.63
1.21
21.9%
6.8%
.296
80.4%
11.3%
21.9%
51.9%
2010
MLB
28
230.3
20
213
56
2.42
1.05
23.4%
6.2%
.275
79.1%
10.2%
23.1%
53.5%
2012
MLB
30
198.7
14
184
52
3.94
1.25
22.1%
6.3%
.315
67.8%
12.0%
21.2%
52.0%
Fantasy owners who held on to Wainwright all year or traded for him at the midway point, got
tremendous value. Before the all-star break he had a 22.3% strikeout percentage, 6.6 walk percentage
and 4.56 ERA. After the break he posted a 3.28 ERA, 21.9% strikeout percentage and 5.9 walk
percentage. It’s safe to say he’s back and has a chance to be as good as he was before the TJ surgery.
Jered Weaver
Throws: R | Age: 30 | Team: Angels | Position: SP | RK: 16 (59)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
26
211
16
174
66
3.75
1.24
19.7%
7.5%
.278
76.2%
11.8%
34.4%
31.6%
2010
MLB
27
224.3
13
233
54
3.01
1.07
25.7%
6.0%
.276
75.7%
10.0%
37.2%
37.7%
2011
MLB
28
235.7
18
198
56
2.41
1.01
21.4%
6.0%
.250
82.6%
8.4%
35.6%
33.9%
2012
MLB
29
188.7
20
142
45
2.81
1.02
19.2%
6.1%
.241
79.2%
10.4%
35.2%
37.2%
I wonder if Weaver still has no regrets for giving the Angels a hometown discount in 2011? Weaver
became a ground ball pitcher last year, using his sinker more than any time ever in his career (and more
than his fastball). Strikeouts are the highest they’ve ever been in the Majors. If Weaver is only providing
140-150 Ks his fantasy upside becomes more suppressed. Weaver is still a solid, consistent pitcher, but
no longer has top ten upside.
C.J. Wilson
Throws: L | Age: 32 | Team: Rangers | Position: SP | RK: 32 (114)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
28
73.7
5
84
32
2.81
1.33
26.0%
9.9%
.318
75.2%
7.9%
18.8%
57.4%
2010
MLB
29
204
15
170
93
3.35
1.25
20.0%
10.9%
.266
72.4%
5.9%
29.4%
50.0%
2011
MLB
30
223.3
16
206
74
2.94
1.19
22.5%
8.1%
.287
73.6%
9.4%
27.2%
51.0%
2012
MLB
31
202.3
13
173
91
3.83
1.34
20.0%
10.5%
.281
70.0%
12.5%
25.5%
50.4%
Without luck on his side last year Wilson came back down to earth, jumping almost a full run in his ERA.
So what happened? The second half of the season of happened. Before the all-star break he had a 2.43
ERA, 19.4% strikeout percentage and 10.8% walk percentage. In the second half his ERA ballooned to
5.54. What happened? He fell behind the hitters. He fell behind hitters 48% of the time in the first half
and 57.23% in the second half. When he was behind in the count hitters slugged .630. This past
offseason he had surgery to repair bone spurs in his pitching elbow. Wilson said he pitched with bone
spurs for a “couple of months,” which could be why he struggled so much in the second half of the
season. He’s currently going as the 36th starting pitcher in NFBC, behind Dan Haren and Josh Johnson,
which is a great value.
Vance Worley
Throws: L | Age: 25 | Team: Twins | Position: SP | RK: 80 (285)
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2010
AAA
22
45.3
1
36
10
3.77
1.24
22.2%
6.2%
.314
72.0%
11.1%
22.1%
51.6%
2011
AAA
23
50.7
5
50
12
2.31
1.05
24.8%
5.9%
.000
87.5%
-
0.0%
0.0%
2011
MLB
23
131.7
11
119
46
3.01
1.23
21.5%
8.3%
.283
78.1%
9.2%
28.3%
42.3%
2012
MLB
24
133
6
107
47
4.20
1.51
18.1%
8.0%
.341
72.6%
12.0%
23.3%
47.3%
Worley doesn’t have overpowering stuff so it wasn’t a shock to see him regress in 2012. However, he
regressed more than expected. His ground ball rate increased five percentage points while his BABIP
increased to .341, suggesting he suffered from poor defense/ bad luck. I never like it when players leave
the NL to go to the AL, but there are exceptions; Worley isn’t one of those exceptions. I expect his
strikeout rate to decrease to about 15-16%, which puts him well below my 20% strikeout rate threshold
for starting pitchers.
Jordan Zimmermann
Year
LVL
AGE
IP
W
SO
BB
ERA
WHIP
SO%
BB%
BABIP
LOB%
HR/FB
FB%
GB%
2009
MLB
23
91.3
3
92
29
4.63
1.36
23.5%
7.4%
.332
67.5%
16.4%
22.9%
45.5%
2010
MLB
24
31
1
27
10
4.94
1.32
20.0%
7.4%
.261
72.3%
27.6%
29.9%
49.5%
2011
MLB
25
161.3
8
124
31
3.18
1.15
18.7%
4.7%
.292
74.2%
7.8%
30.8%
40.8%
2012
MLB
26
195.7
12
153
43
2.94
1.17
19.0%
5.3%
.288
79.3%
12.1%
24.7%
44.4%
Two years from TJ surgery, Zimmerman was even better than he was a year ago, striking out batters a
greater pace. The most important number was 195, which is the number of innings he threw. Two years
after TJ surgery is when pitchers regain the command of their pitches. This may be the year he utilizes
his hard slider to generate more strikeouts. He may never approach 190+ strikeouts, but he should
easily provide 150 Ks with a sub 3.35 ERA.
Extremely Helpful Resources
I watch a good amount of baseball, but not nearly enough to watch every player. And frankly, other folks
are smarter than me. So I couldn’t write this without help from other extremely helpful resources.
Below are the websites, books, and other source material that helped me create my fantasy guide.
Websites
Books
BaseballProspectus.com
FanGraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
Baseball-Reference.com
BaseballAmerica.com
RotoWire.com
ESPN
MLB.tv
MLBDepthCharts.com
RotoPass.com
MockDraftCentral.com
BillJamesOnline.com
BaseballAnalytics.org
PaulSporer.com
StatCorner.com
BaseballGuys.com
BaseballNewsHound.com
BaseballHeatMaps.com
BeyondTheBoxScore.com
TexasFarmReview.com
TexasLeaguers.com
Baseball America Prospect Handbook
Baseball Prospectus Extra Innings
Podcasts
Up & In
Fantasy Focus
Baseball Today
Fantasy Hour
Effectively Wild
Productive Outs
Baseball America Podcasts
Pine Tar Podcast

2013 Fantasy Baseball Guide

Transcription

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