Belmont cragin housing study

Transcription

BELMONT CRAGIN HOUSING STUDY
BELMONT
CRAGIN
HOUSING
STUDY
June 2016 Draft for Review
Nathalie P. Voorhees Center
for Neighborhood and
Community Improvement
CONTENTS
BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................... 1
KEY FINDINGS ...................................................................................................................... 2
ABOUT THE COMMUNITY .................................................................................................... 3
CURRENT RESIDENTS........................................................................................................... 5
HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS ......................................................................................... 9
Housing characteristics ......................................................................................................... 9
Housing Costs and Affordability .................................................................................................. 12
Housing Activity .................................................................................................................. 15
NEIGHBORING COMMUNITIES ........................................................................................... 25
Housing Market Indicators .................................................................................................. 28
COMPARABLE COMMUNITY CONDITIONS ......................................................................... 33
Housing Market Indicators .................................................................................................. 35
RESPONDING TO HOUSING DEMAND AND NEED .............................................................. 39
Young Families ............................................................................................................................ 40
Empty Nesters (or soon to be) ................................................................................................... 41
Senior Citizens ............................................................................................................................ 42
Potential External Demand: Nearby Renter Households (Age 25-44) ........................................ 43
APPENDIX .......................................................................................................................... 45
BACKGROUND
The North West Side Housing Center (NWSHC) asked the Nathalie P. Voorhees Center for
Neighborhood and Community Improvement (Voorhees Center) to conduct a housing study for
Belmont Cragin (Community Area 19 in Chicago). This study will inform the development of a Quality
of Life Plan that is underway for the area with support from the Local Initiative Support Corporation
(LISC).
The Northwest Side Housing Center is a community-based, nonprofit organization that engages,
educates and empowers the community through housing counseling, financial education,
community organizing, outreach, advocacy and supportive services. NWSHC is working in
collaboration with community stakeholders and LISC to complete the Quality of Life plan.
LISC is a national organization that works with key local players to take on pressing challenges and to
equip struggling communities with the capital, strategy and know-how to become places where
people can thrive. It has over 30 years’ experience investing in housing, health, education, public
safety and employment. Its toolkit includes loans, grants, equity investments and on-the-ground
experience in some of America’s neediest neighborhoods.
The Voorhees Center, a unit in the college of Urban Planning and Public Affairs at the University of
Illinois at Chicago (UIC), is a dynamic resource center that engages residents, leaders, and
policymakers seeking effective strategies for advancing community livability and vitality. Since its
founding in 1978, the Center has worked collaboratively with a diverse set of partners to provide
technical assistance, conduct research, and generate new knowledge in comprehensive community
development and neighborhood quality-of-life issues. Grounded in the idea that all individuals have a
right to such amenities as quality housing, education, jobs, transportation and safety to lead decent
and productive lives, the Center strives to empower community residents and stakeholders and
provides them with tools to pursue equitable futures.
Key Voorhees Center staff (Co-Directors Janet smith and Yittayih Zelalem, Economic Development
Planner Lauren Nolan, Research Associate Zafer Sönmez and Research Assistant Christophe
Valcourt) participated in this project. A broad range of data covering area demographics, housing
market conditions and housing demand and supply has been compiled for Belmont Cragin as well as
neighboring and comparable communities. NWSHC interns have also conducted visual assessment of
area housing conditions.
Information gathered by the Voorhees Center has been shared and discussed with NWSHC staff and
the Housing Committee for the Quality of Life Plan during four meetings held between January and
May 2016. Feedback received at these meetings was used to refine the study. This report is a
synthesis of comprehensive data and information gathered on Belmont Cragin, and substantially
informed by feedback and comments received from key community stakeholders in this interactive
process. This is a significant compilation of housing and related information for Belmont Cragin, and
we are hopeful that what is contained in this report and the information shared during the study
process provides valuable insight to the Quality of Life Plan as it is implemented.
The Voorhees Center │University of Illinois at Chicago
1
KEY FINDINGS
Population and Demographic Trends
• Growth in population (+1.2%; 79,069 people) from 2000-14 but not the number of households (-345;
21,506 households) in the same period
• Large proportion of family households (78% compared to 55% in Chicago)
• Large proportion of children under age of 18 (29% compared to 22% in Chicago)
• Growth in household size (from 3.56 in 2000 to 3.65 persons in 2014; Chicago decreased to 2.58 in
2014)
• Income erosion (real decline from $61,343 in 2000 to $43,104 in 2014, 29.7% decrease)
• Tenure is evenly split (49.1% owners, 50.9% renters)
Housing Market Supply
• Larger share of single family, both rental and owned (43% compared to 27% in Chicago)
• Greater share of units with 3 or more bedrooms (26% rental and 67% owned compared to 24% and
60% respectively in Chicago)
• Belmont Cragin represents a middle market for home buyers (median home value is $206,828
compared to $229,461 in Chicago)
• Rents have increased modestly (median rent rose 8% since 2000 to $924 compared to 16% increase
in Chicago to $979)
• Housing prices have not yet recovered (median sales prices currently are $30,000-50,000 below
city median; in 2005, median prices had been $50,000-75,000 above the city median)
• Housing cost burden is widespread among both owners (59%; Chicago is 50%)and renters (58%;
Chicago is 50%) and it has worsened (34% of renters and 45% of owners burdened in 2000)
Market Activity
• Mortgage originations are beginning to pick up (tracking with Chicago at 7-8 loans per 100 parcels;
still well below 2005 peak of 40 loans per 100 parcels)
• Sales volumes also increasing since 2008 (averaging 300-400 single family homes and 200 2-4 unit
buildings annually; about 3% of total units per year)
• Prices still lag (11% below city median in 2014 compared to 10% above city median in 2000)
• Business buyer activity uptick post-housing crash (17% in 2014 compared to 3% in 2005)
Market Distress and Recovery
• Recovery from the foreclosure crisis is underway (foreclosure filings down to pre-recession levels),
yet properties remain in the pipeline (nearly 200 homes sold at auction in 2014 compared to less
than 10 in 2005)
• Properties are moving, but share of distressed sales remains high (32% compared to 20% in
Chicago; less than 10% in 2005)
• Abandoned properties have decreased to fewer than 100, but still evident in the community
• Building and demolition permits are much lower (about 10 each in 2013-15) than in neighboring
communities; new construction is heaviest in Logan Square West Town
2
ABOUT THE COMMUNITY
Located on Chicago’s northwest side, Belmont Cragin is one of Chicago’s largest community areas
that offers a mix of housing, retail, industry and active manufacturing. Overall, it is well resourced
with many amenities especially for families including several high performing schools that, based on
the high enrollments in some, are in high demand. Transit options include several CTA bus lines and
the Metra, which can be advantageous if traveling to some suburban locations but can make transit
usage time consuming or costly if traveling downtown for work.
Retail and Groceries
Belmont Cragin is served by 28 food stores and markets which consist of 3 national chains, 4 local or
regional chains, and 21 independent stores (several of these being ethnic markets serving the local
Hispanic/Latino population). The neighborhood is additionally served by a number of convenience
and liquor stores.
Brickyard Mall is one of the main shopping centers on the western edge of the neighborhood, with
41 anchor tenants meeting residents and visitors’ needs for dining, clothing, grooming, and health
care. Hall Plaza is a smaller shopping center on the neighborhood’s eastern edge, with 16 anchor
tenants. Additionally, the main commercial corridors of Fullerton, Diversey, Belmont, Grand, Cicero,
and Central Avenue offer a variety of chain and independent restaurants, bakeries, auto parts and
auto repair shops, banks, and clothing stores.
Transportation
Belmont Cragin is served by multiple CTA bus lines along its main corridors. It is served by the 54
Cicero bus, the 65 Grand bus, the 74 Fullerton bus, the 76 Diversey bus, the 77 Belmont bus, the 85
Central bus, the 86 Narragansett bus, and the 91 Austin bus. The neighborhood also has access to the
Milwaukee District-West Metra rail line on its southern border. The rail line has stations at Galewood,
Hanson Park, and Grand/Cicero.
Libraries and Schools
Belmont Cragin is served by 1 public library, the Chicago West Belmont Library, in the neighborhood’s
northwest corner. Belmont Cragin has 16 schools within its borders. It has 12 elementary schools, 1
middle school, and 3 high schools. Ten schools are Level 1 schools (with 4 of them being Level 1+).
Five schools are Level 2 schools (with 3 of them being Level 2+). A level 1 school is a school in
“Excellent Standing,” a Level 2 school is a school in “Good Standing,” and a Level 3 school is a school
on “Probation.” 1 One school did not receive a rating. Twelve schools in Belmont Cragin are
overcrowded, or have a population greater than 600 students, and 6 of the elementary schools have
more than 1,000 students. Two schools (1 elementary, 1 high school) offer city-wide admission, 4 of
the schools are charter schools (3 elementary, 1 high school), and the remaining are neighborhood
schools. (Figure 1)
1
http://cps.edu/SiteCollectionDocuments/PerformancePolicy_FAQ.pdf
3
Health Care
Belmont Cragin is served by 1 City of Chicago Primary Care Community Health Center (PCC Salud
Family Health Center). It is also served by a number of smaller health clinics that offer a range of
services, from promoting general health to addressing more specialized needs. The neighborhood is
served by 15 dental clinics, 9 general care/primary care clinics, 2 skin care clinics, 4 eye-care clinics,
and 4 clinics addressing bone health and foot health. The neighborhood is also served by 14
pharmacies, the majority of them run by national chains such as Walgreens and CVS. No major
hospitals exist within the neighborhood’s borders (see Figure 1).
Recreation
Belmont Cragin is served by 4 parks. Riis Park is the largest one at 56 acres and provides a field
house, pool, tennis courts, soccer fields, and an ice rink. Cragin Park offers a playground, tennis
courts, a basketball and volleyball court, and a soccer-football field. Blackhawk Park provides a field
house, soccer-football field, tennis courts, baseball and softball fields, and a basketball-volleyball
court. Aiella Playlot Park is the neighborhood’s smallest park and only offers a playground (see
Figure 1).
Figure 1 Location of Amenities in Belmont Cragin
Source:
http://www.cityofchicago.org/content/dam/city/depts/doit/general/GIS/Chicago_Maps/Community_Areas/
CA_BELMONT_CRAGIN.pdf
4
CURRENT RESIDENTS
Belmont Cragin is a diverse community with young families with children, empty nesters and aging
households. While primarily Latino, the history as a home to different ethnic and immigrant groups is
evident in the storefronts, which cater to many outside the community as well as within.
Population and Age Distribution
While the city of Chicago experienced a nearly 7 percent drop in its population between 2000 and
2014, Belmont Cragin’s population rose slightly (1.2%) to 79,069 in 2014. As one of the larger
community areas in the city, 29.4 percent of its population is under the age of 18 while about 8
percent of the population is over the age of 65. These rates have not really changed since 2000.
Compared to the city, the age distribution makes this community younger overall (see Figure 2).
Figure 2 Age Distribution, 2014
Age Distribution
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Under 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 18 to 25 to 35 to 45 to 55 to 65 to 75 to
5
14
17
24
34
44
54
64
74
84
Belmont Cragin
85
and
older
Chicago
Source: American Community Survey (2014)
Race and Ethnicity
In 2014, nearly half (48.7%) of the population identified as “some other race” while 42.5 percent
identified as white. Of the remaining, 4 percent were black, 1.7 percent Asian, 0.2 percent American
Indian/Alaska Native, and 2.9 percent were two or more races. Four out of five people in Belmont
Cragin (79.4%) identified their ethnicity as Hispanic or Latino -- a 14.1 percent increase since 2000. In
addition to an increasing share of Hispanic/Latino residents, the number of African American
residents and residents who identified as some other race also increased.
5
Household Type and Size
Despite the increase in population, Belmont Cragin saw a slight decline in the number of households,
dropping from 21,851 in 2000 to 21,506 in 2014. The neighborhood appears to have followed a
citywide trend in the declining number of households (the number of households in Chicago fell by
3%), albeit not as steep. The decline was particularly marked in the number of family households,
which fell from 17,159 in 2000 to 16,738 in 2014. (Figure 3) The neighborhood saw a 9.1 percent
decline in the number of married-couple families, but saw increases in the percentage of singlefemale-headed families and single-male-headed families by 4 percent and 4.5 percent respectively.
Still, the average family size grew from 3.56 to 3.66 persons per household, which was not the case
in Chicago, where it dropped from 2.67 to 2.58.
Figure 3 Family and Non-Family Households, 2014
Belmont Cragin
Chicago
22%
45%
55%
78%
Family Households
Family Households
Non-Family Households
Non-Family Households
The number of nonfamily households increased between 2000 and 2014, from 4,692 to 4,768. The
proportion of households that were headed by single females increased by 1.4 percent during that
time period while the proportion headed by single males fell by 0.7 percent. The city of Chicago
similarly saw decreases in the number of family households and increases in the number of nonfamily
households between 2000 and 2014. And Belmont Cragin’s concurrent increase in population and
decrease in family households has led to an 11.8 percent increase in single person non-family
households, up from 3,575 in 2000 to 4,012 in 2014.
6
Households by age of householder
Compared to Chicago, Belmont Cragin’s households are somewhat similarly distributed when
grouped by age of householder (person at least 15 years old and in whose name the housing unit is
rented or owned), with a smaller cohort of very young and older households (Table 1). The largest
share of households in Belmont Cragin are younger, headed by someone who is between 25 and 44
years of age followed by those who are between 45-64 – frequently referred to as empty nesters
since often their own children are no longer living with them in the family home.
Table 1 Distribution of Households by Age of Householder, 2014
Householder Age
Number
Percent (City)
569
2.7% (4.3%)
25-44 years
9,340
43.4% (43.3%)
45-64 years
8,219
38.2% (34.3%)
65 years and above
3,378
15.7% (18.1%)
Less than 25 years
Income
Belmont Cragin saw a significant decline in its median household income, from $61,343 in 2000 to
$43,104 in 2014, a 29.7 percent decrease. In comparison, at the city level the median household
income fell by 14.8 percent from $54,899 to $47,831. Notably, Belmont Cragin’s median household
income was higher than the city median in 2000 and ended up lower than the city median in 2014
(see Figure 4). Broken down along racial-ethnic groups in the community, all households except
Asians experienced a decline in median household income between 2000 and 2014. The largest
declines in dollar amounts were for African American households (-$29,213), those households
identifying as some other race (-$28,662), and those households identifying as Hispanic or Latino
(-$23,081).
In addition to the decline in median household income, the proportion of families whose income was
less than $40,000 increased from 23.9 percent in 2000 to 42.7 percent in 2014. (Figure 4) The
neighborhood also saw a significant increase in the proportion of households with incomes below
the poverty level, from 9.4 percent to 19.2 percent. At the city level, the percentage of families with
incomes below $40,000 increased from 32.4 percent in 2000 to 38.5 percent in 2014 while the
poverty rate for families increased from 16.6 percent to 18.7 percent. As with median household
income, Belmont Cragin originally had a lower poverty rate and lower share of low-to-moderate
income residents than the city in 2000, but saw higher figures than the city in 2014.
7
Figure 4 Income Distribution, 2014
Income Distribution
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Belmont Cragin
Chicago
One notable finding was that the neighborhood saw its largest decline in the number of households
who earned more than $75,000 and less than $100,000, from 3,597 in 2000 to 2,069 in 2014, a drop of
73.9 percent. The city of Chicago only dropped 21 percent.
Employment
Belmont Cragin saw an increase between 2000 and 2014 in the number of individuals over 16 who
were in the labor market, from 34,697 to 39,705, a 7.2 percent increase. The percentage of residents
who were employed increased 2 percent between 2000 and 2014. During that same time period, the
number of unemployed residents more than doubled from 2,527 to 5,652. These figures follow
citywide trends, although the proportion of citywide unemployed residents grew at a slower rate
than in Belmont Cragin (37.6% versus 123.7%).
In 2014, the four industries in which the highest proportion of residents was employed were
manufacturing (21.7%), educational services, health care, and social assistance (14.1%), retail trade
(12.9%), and arts/entertainment/accommodation/food services (12.4%). Between 2000 and 2014,
manufacturing saw its share of employed residents decline by 5.7 percent while the other three
industries saw their shares of employed residents increased by 2.2 percent, 2.2 percent, and 4.6
percent respectively.
Educational attainment
In 2014, 38.8 percent of the population had less than a high school education, a decrease from 41.4
percent back in 2000. The percentages of residents increased slightly for those attaining a high
school degree or higher. In 2014, 29.9 percent of Belmont Cragin residents had only completed high
school. Of the remaining, 15.3 percent have some college education, 7.7. percent have obtained a
bachelor’s, and 2.7 percent hold a master’s degree. Citywide trends show the share of Chicago
residents with less than a high school degree had decreased while the share of those with a high
school degree and higher had increased.
8
HOUSING MARKET CONDITIONS
Housing characteristics
Tenure mix
Approximately half of Belmont Cragin households rent (49.1%) and half own their homes (50.9%),
which was higher than in 2000 (44.7%) for the community but lower than the City in 2014(55.3%). The
largest concentration of owners are located in census tracts on the east and west end of the
community area while renters are generally central with the highest concentration in 3 southern
tracts (see Figure 5).
Figure 5 Distribution of Owner Occupied Units by Census Tract, 2014
Number of units
The number of rental units increased by nearly 1,000 since 2000 to 10,564, which was an 11 percent
increase compared to the city where it dropped 4 percent. This is probably less due to new
construction and more to conversions of owner occupied homes to rental properties. This is
corroborated by the 12 percent reduction in owner occupied units, from 12,064 in 2000 to 10,564 in
2014, which was much higher than the modest 1 percent loss in Chicago.
9
Types of buildings
Housing options are concentrated in small multifamily buildings (2-4 units; 43%) and single family
homes (36%). (Figure 6) When compared to the city, Belmont Cragin has a greater share of both
types and a much smaller share of large multifamily rental buildings and condominiums.
Figure 6 Type of Housing Structure, 2014
Belmont Cragin
City of Chicago
18%
27%
36%
43%
Single Family
Condo
3%
27%
2-4 Units
5+ Units
Single Family
Condo
26%
20%
2-4 Units
5+ Units
Unit Sizes
Belmont Cragin has a greater share of larger units – 2 bedrooms or more – when compared to the
city for both renter and owner occupied units. In 2014, 52 percent of rental units were 2 bedrooms
and 22 percent were 3 bedrooms (the city is 36% and 19% respectively) (see Figure 7). In owner
occupied units, the distribution for 2 and 3 bedroom units is similar to Chicago; however, Belmont
Cragin has proportionally more 4 bedrooms (17%) and 5+ bedrooms (13%) units than the city (14% and
7% respectively) (see Figure 8). Across both tenure types, Belmont Cragin housing is more
accommodating to families with children than the city. In general, there is little evidence of
overcrowding among renters or owners, with about 1 percent of each living in a unit with more than
1.5 persons per room (US Census definition of overcrowding).
10
Figure 7 Rental Units by Bedroom Size, 2014
Belmont Cragin
2%
Chicago
2%
4%
4%
10%
No bedroom
19%
22%
1%
1 bedroom
19%
2 bedrooms
30%
3 bedrooms
4 bedrooms
5 or more bedrooms
36%
52%
Figure 8 Owned units by Bedroom Size, 2014
Chicago
Belmont Cragin
0%
1%
2%
7%
13%
No bedroom
30%
17%
8%
14%
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
31%
3 bedrooms
4 bedrooms
39%
37%
11
Housing Costs and Affordability
Median rent and home value
Overall, the cost of housing in Belmont Cragin is below the city median for home values and gross
rent (see Table 2 and 3). In both cases, Belmont started above the median in 2000. The lower cost of
housing is evident in the rent and housing value distributions shown in Figures 9 and 10, which are
both skewed to the left where rents and values are lower.
Table 2 Median Home Value (in 2014 inflation-adjusted dollars)
Location
2000
2014
Belmont Cragin
$217,697
$206,828
Chicago
$198,448
$229,461
% Change
-4%
16%
Source: U.S. Census (2000). American Community Survey (2014); monetary values are in 2014 dollars
Table 3 Median Gross Rent (in 2014 inflation-adjusted dollars)
Location
2000
2014
Belmont Cragin
$854
$924
Chicago
$847
$979
% Change
8%
16%
Source: U.S. Census (2000). American Community Survey (2014); monetary values are in 2014 dollars
Figure 9 Renter Occupied Units by Gross Rent, 2014
Units by Gross Rent
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than
$300
$300 $599
$600 $799
$800 $999
Belmont Cragin
$1,000 $1,249
$1,250 $1,499
$1,500 - $2,000 or
$1,999
more
Chicago
12
Figure 10 Owner Occupied Units by Home Value, 2014
Home Value
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Less
than
$20k
$20k $50k
$50k $100k
$100k $150k
$150k $300k
Belmont Cragin
$300k $500k
$500k
%750k
$750k $1M
$1M or
more
Chicago
Housing Affordability
Although housing costs are lower than the city, the proportion of renters and owners that are cost
burdened is higher with 59 percent of renters and 58 percent of renters paying more than 30 percent
of income for their housing, the standard used to determine housing cost burden (see Figure 11 and
12). In comparison, the rate for both renters and owners in Chicago is 50 percent, which is higher
than the state of Illinois and the national averages for both.
Figure 11 Gross Rent as a Percentage of Income, 2014
Gross Rent as a % of Household Income
60%
53%
50%
40%
35%
18%
20%
10%
0%
30%
29%
30%
17%
8%
2%
Less than 10%
10% - 29%
2000
2014
30% ot 49%
50% or more
13
Figure 12 Owner Costs as a Percentage of Income, 2014
Owner Costs as a % of Household Income
(with a mortgage)
60%
50%
40%
56%
41%
29%
30%
31%
20%
28%
14%
10%
0%
Less than 30%
30% - 50%
2000
More than 50%
2014
Mortgage debt
The proportion of homeowners with mortgages in Belmont Cragin rose from 72 percent in 2000 to
78 percent in 2014, a rate that is above the city (71%). Of these mortgage holders, half have a home
loan value to income ratio of 3.0 or higher, with most at 4.0 (35%), which is above the city average,
and higher than the national average of 3.3 (and which is higher than the pre-recession 50 year
average of 2.2). 2 This means that at least half of the owners in Belmont Cragin may not be able to
afford their mortgage. In addition to families having mortgages they may not be able to afford, an
estimated 1,173 homeowners have homes that are valued above $250,000 and income below
$50,000, which could cause hardship should property taxes increase.
2 See http://www.mybudget360.com/the-magical-2-housing-ratio-between-median-nationwide-home-prices-and-householdincome/
14
Figure 13 Loan Value to Income Ratio, 2014
Loan Value to Income Ratio (with a
mortgage)
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less than 2.0
2.0 to 2.9
Belmont Cragin
3.0 to 3.9
4.0 or more
City of Chicago
Housing Activity
Sales Prices
As the city of Chicago recovers in the wake of the housing and foreclosure crisis, so does Belmont
Cragin, though not as quickly, as will be discussed in the next two sections. Still, Belmont Cragin is a
middle market from a housing market standpoint, representing many rental and for-sale options for
middle-income families. Pre-recession, the community was on a trajectory that might have moved it
into higher income brackets based on median sales prices, which in 2006 were $50,000-75,000 above
the city median. However, that has shifted, and median sales prices are now $30,000-50,000 lower
than the city median at the start of 2016 (see Figure 14)
Based on annual sales in Belmont Cragin, the volume (number of sales) is increasing toward prerecession levels but is still half the volume at the 2005 peak (see Figure 15) Looking at this volume
relative to the city, Belmont Cragin mortgage originations were actually higher than Chicago in 2005
based on a per 100 parcel rate, but then dropped and have tracked about the same as the city postrecession (see Figure 16). Looking at sales per 100 parcels, Belmont Cragin was about the same as the
city in 2005, but then dropped below the city rate during the recession. While the rate of sales has
picked up again, the drop in 2013 may indicate some stalling out in Belmont Cragin’s recovery (see
Figure 17). Most sales have been of single-family homes (see Figure 18). Interestingly, since the
recession, there has been a steady disposition of 2-4 unit buildings averaging nearly 200 buildings a
year. Unlike other parts of the city, condominiums have not been a significant portion of the market
activity (with the exception of 2006).
15
Figure 14 Sales price for Belmont Cragin 2000-2016 3
Source: Trulia.com
3
Trulia divides Belmont Cragin down Central Avenue into Belmont Central and Cragin.
16
Figure 15 Total units sold annually, 2003-2014
Belmont Cragin - Units Sold
3,500
3,000
Units
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Source: Record Information Services
Figure 16 Mortgage Originations per 100 Residential Parcels, 2005-2014
Mortgage Originations per 100 Residential
Parcels
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Chicago
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Belmont Cragin
Source: IHS Calculations of Data from County Recorder of Deeds via Property Insight, County Assessor's Offices
17
Figure 17 Sales per parcel per 100 Residential Parcels, 2005-2014
Sales per 100 Residential Parcels
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
City of Chicago Total
2011
2012
Belmont Cragin
2013
2014
Figure 18 Sales by property type
Sales by Property Type
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005
2006
2007
Single
2008
2009
Condo
2010
2 to 4
2011
2012
2013
2014
5 or more
18
Figures 15-18 tell a story of the housing crisis that began with huge sales volumes in 2005-06 coupled
with rapidly rising prices, then a crash. Belmont Cragin sales rebounded more quickly, but that is less
indicative of a strong market and more indicative of short sales, distressed sales, etc. As of 2013, the
data suggests the Belmont Cragin market is getting back to ‘normal.’ However, this is qualified when
we look at the types of sales and in relation to foreclosures.
Foreclosures
A positive trend in foreclosure filings suggests that Belmont Cragin is moving in the right direction,
nearing the same rate per 100 parcels as the city in 2014 after a difficult 7 years of more than double
rates (see Figure 19). Overwhelmingly, the largest share of foreclosed homes in 2014 was single
family (67%) followed by small rental buildings with 2-4 units (28%) (Table 4).
Foreclosures sold at auction are another indicator of market stress, which has gone down in 2014
from its peak in 2010 and after a drop and another rise in 2013. While this trend suggests Belmont
Cragin is moving toward recovery, this rate is still well above its 2005 rate, which was near zero.
(Figure 20) Furthermore, the proportion of sales that are distressed (i.e., foreclosure filings and
auctions) has continued to drop post-recession. The 2014 rate of 31 percent is still 10 percent higher
than the city of Chicago and 3 times the pre-recession rate in 2005. (Figure 21)
Figure 19 Foreclosure Filings 2005-2014
Foreclosure Filings per 100 Parcels
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
City of Chicago Total
2012
2013
2014
Belmont Cragin
Source: IHS Calculations of Data from County Circuit Courts via Property Insight, Record Information Services, County Assessor's Offices
Table 4 Distribution of Foreclosure Filings by Type of Structure, 2014
% of Housing Stock
Building Type:
Single Family
Condos
2-4 Units
5+ Units
Belmont Cragin
36%
3%
43%
18%
% of Foreclosure Filings
Chicago
26%
20%
27%
27%
Belmont Cragin
67%
3%
28%
2%
Chicago
55%
18%
24%
3%
19
Figure 20 Foreclosures Sold at Auction, 2005-2014
Belmont Cragin Foreclosure Auctions
350
300
Auctions
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
Figure 21 Share of Distressed Sales, 2005-2014
Share of 'Distressed' Sales
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
Chicago
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Blemont Cragin
20
Investment
A trend to watch in Belmont Cragin is the rise of investors or business buyers of residential property,
which has increased post-recession and was nearly 30 percent of single-family sales in 2013 (which
also was a peak in foreclosure auctions) (see Figure 22). These units may have been bought either to
re-sell for profit or to rent out to families, which is more likely given the drop in owner-occupied units
since 2000.
Figure 22 Percent of Sales to Business Buyers
Single Family Sales to Business Buyers
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Belmont Cragin
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Chicago
Vacancy, Demolition and New Construction
Another measure of market health is vacancy rates. Long term vacancy (a unit that is vacant for 24
months or more) is low in Belmont Cragin compared to Chicago (see Figure 23). However, figures
have been creeping up, likely resulting from the foreclosure crisis and may include some investorbought housing that is being held off market waiting for higher sales price potential.
A positive trend is the drop in 311 Vacancy/Abandonment calls after a spike during the foreclosure
crisis. The trends in Belmont Cragin track that of the city average per community area (see Figure 24).
Looking at the data mapped out, while not completely evenly distributed, vacancy and abandonment
data based on these calls is not concentrated in any one area (see Figures 25-26).
Finally, looking at permits for both demolition and new construction, while there is not much activity
in Belmont Cragin, there is a lot of demolition to the south in Austin and Humboldt Park (see
Figure27), and a lot of new construction to the east in Logan Square and West Town (see Figure 28).
These data suggest there may be development pressures moving toward Belmont Cragin in the near
future.
21
Figure 23 Long-term Vacancy
Long Term Vacancy Rate (24+ months)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2010
2011
2012
Chicago
2013
2014
Belmont Cragin
Source: IHS Calculations using data from US Housing and Urban Development and US Postal Services
Figure 24 Number of 311 Vacancy/Abandonment Calls, 2010-2015
311 Vacancy/Abandonment Calls
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010
2011
Belmont Cragin
2012
2013
2014
2015
Chicago Community Area Average
Source: City of Chicago Data Portal, chicagobuildings.org
22
Figure 25 Vacancy and Abandonment, 2010-12
Open Boarded Unknown
Figure 26 Vacancy and Abandonment, 2013-15
Open Boarded Unknown
23
Figure 27 Demolition Permits, 2013-15
Figure 28 New Construction Permits, 2013-2015
24
NEIGHBORING COMMUNITIES
Belmont Cragin has seen a decline in median household income and a significant increase in poverty
the last 10 to 15 years. These changes have important implications for housing affordability as
evidenced by the increase in cost burdened renter households (up 23% from 2000). Although these
changes are partially a reflection of city-wide trends, we also hypothesize that increased cost burden
and declining median household income in Belmont Cragin could be driven, at least partially, by
changes taking place in its surrounding communities. To explore this possibility, we examine
economic and housing market conditions in 8 adjacent community areas (Austin, Avondale,
Dunning, Hermosa, Humboldt Park, Irving Park, Montclare and Portage Park) and 2 nearby (Logan
Square and West Town) because of their size and close proximity to Belmont Cragin (see Figure 29).
Figure 29 Adjacent and Nearby Communities
Economic conditions in most neighboring communities were marked by a decline in household
income and an increase in the poverty rate from 2000 to 2014 with the exception of Logan Square
and West Town (see Table 5). Only two communities experienced sharper decline in household
income: Montclare and Austin. Hermosa shows a similar trend while other neighboring community
areas experienced smaller changes. Although Dunning and Montclare experienced higher growth in
poverty than Belmont Cragin, these communities’ poverty rates are not as high as that of Belmont
Cragin in 2014 or in previous years.
25
Table 5 Income and Poverty Rate in Neighboring Communities
Household Income
Poverty Rate
Community
2000
2010
2014
2000
2010
2014
$43,335
Change
(2000-14)
-26.6%
11.2%
20.5%
21.1%
Change
(2000-14)
87.3%
Belmont
Cragin
Portage Park
$59,056
$47,307
$62,659
$56,558
$55,762
-11.0%
8.0%
14.6%
14.6%
82.6%
Irving Park
$58,407
$59,945
$50,337
-13.8%
11.3%
11.2%
13.9%
23.4%
Dunning
$67,943
$67,012
$60,288
-11.3%
5.2%
7.7%
11.0%
112.6%
Montclare
$65,177
$52,519
$41,631
-36.1%
5.6%
11.6%
14.7%
162.9%
Hermosa
$51,641
$46,271
$37,800
-26.8%
16.7%
19.9%
22.0%
31.8%
Avondale
$50,015
$51,210
$44,274
-11.5%
17.4%
15.7%
19.2%
10.2%
Logan Square
$50,983
$58,121
$61,268
20.2%
19.7%
21.3%
19.4%
-1.4%
Humboldt Park
$38,977
$32,657
$33,402
-14.3%
31.1%
32.7%
34.4%
10.5%
West Town
$55,190
$70,559
$73,481
33.1%
20.9%
17.6%
15.8%
-24.4%
Austin
$47,436
$37,243
$33,185
-30.0%
24.1%
27.7%
32.2%
33.4%
City of Chicago
$53,103
$55,209
$53,167
0.1%
19.5%
20.8%
22.6%
16.1%
Source: U.S. Census (2000). American Community Survey (2010 and 2014). Monetary values are in 2014 dollars.
Except for Logan Square and West Town, median rents and increases in rent levels in neighboring
communities appear to be very similar to the rates observed in Belmont Cragin (Table 6). In
comparison, while Logan Square and West Town experienced the highest increase in rental rates,
both had the smallest change in renter housing cost burden. These data suggest that either existing
households in these communities started earning more income or existing renters were replaced by
renters with higher incomes. Assuming the latter, households that left might have moved into
Belmont Cragin and other neighboring communities, which may partially explain declining income
and/or increased cost burden in those communities.
Compared to the City as a whole, a slightly larger share of Belmont Cragin housing units is owneroccupied in 2014 (see Table 7). However, unlike the City, the community experienced decline in
owner occupied housing units over time, from 55 percent to 49 percent over the decade. Similar to
this trend, several neighboring communities also experienced decline in owner occupied units and an
increase in renter households. The exceptions were Irving Park, Avondale, Logan Square and West
Town.
26
Table 6 Rent and Renter Housing Cost Burden in Neighboring Communities
Median Gross Rent
Renter Housing Cost Burden
Community
2000
2010
2014
Change
(2000-14)
2000
2010
2014
Change
(2000-14)
Belmont
Cragin
Portage Park
$859
$962
$934
8.8%
34.0%
57.1%
58.6%
72.3%
$877
$975
$966
10.1%
32.7%
47.6%
44.3%
35.4%
Irving Park
$874
$998
$967
10.6%
31.6%
43.8%
46.8%
48.2%
Dunning
$966
$990
$995
3.0%
30.9%
45.0%
48.6%
57.1%
Montclare
$913
$942
$886
-3.0%
30.9%
53.7%
53.4%
72.8%
Hermosa
$815
$971
$899
10.3%
38.9%
57.9%
65.6%
68.7%
Avondale
$833
$961
$945
13.4%
35.4%
45.8%
48.8%
37.8%
Logan Square
$894
$1,031
$1,068
19.5%
37.8%
45.2%
45.0%
19.0%
Humboldt Park
$791
$983
$920
16.2%
46.4%
58.0%
55.3%
19.2%
West Town
$934
$1,155
$1,223
31.0%
36.1%
40.9%
39.5%
9.5%
Austin
$806
$927
$902
12.0%
43.2%
61.0%
61.8%
43.1%
City of Chicago
$847
$997
$1,018
20.2%
37.9%
50.2%
49.9%
31.8%
Table 7 Housing Tenure in Neighboring Communities
Owner Occupied
Renter Occupied
Community
2000
2010
2014
Change
(2000-14)
2000
2010
2014
Change
(2000-14)
Belmont
Cragin
Portage Park
55.3%
50.5%
49.1%
-11.1%
44.7%
49.5%
50.9%
13.7%
57.0%
57.1%
55.8%
-2.1%
43.0%
42.9%
44.2%
2.8%
Irving Park
41.1%
51.4%
45.0%
9.4%
58.9%
48.6%
55.0%
-6.6%
Dunning
79.8%
78.6%
74.5%
-6.7%
20.2%
21.4%
25.5%
26.6%
Montclare
66.7%
62.4%
56.4%
-15.4%
33.3%
37.6%
43.6%
30.9%
Hermosa
44.9%
46.3%
39.6%
-11.9%
55.1%
53.7%
60.4%
9.7%
Avondale
37.4%
46.3%
38.4%
2.7%
62.6%
53.7%
61.6%
-1.6%
Logan Square
30.8%
38.0%
37.8%
22.9%
69.2%
62.0%
62.2%
-10.2%
Humboldt Park
37.6%
34.3%
35.3%
-6.0%
62.4%
65.7%
64.7%
3.6%
West Town
28.9%
40.4%
37.8%
30.8%
71.1%
59.6%
62.2%
-12.6%
Austin
42.9%
40.9%
39.1%
-8.9%
57.1%
59.1%
60.9%
6.7%
City of Chicago
43.8%
48.0%
44.9%
2.5%
56.2%
52.0%
55.1%
-2.0%
Source: U.S. Census (2000). American Community Survey (2010 and 2014).
27
From 2010 to 2015, in parallel with city-wide trends, home values declined in all neighboring
communities (see Table 8) However, some communities experienced a greater drop in home values
than others. Among the neighboring communities, only Hermosa experienced greater decline than
Belmont Cragin. Similarly, the share of home owners that spend 30 percent or more of their
household income on mortgage is comparable to neighboring communities (except for Logan
Square and West Town). Although more than half of the owners are cost burdened in Belmont
Cragin, the share of cost burdened owners did not increase as much as it did in some neighboring
communities and the city as a whole.
Table 8 Home Values and Owner Housing Cost Burden in Neighboring Communities
Home Value
Owner Housing Cost Burden
Community
2000
2010
2014
Change
(2010-14)
2000
2010
2014
Change
(2000-14)
Belmont
Cragin
Portage Park
204,487
328,133
206,285
-37.1%
42.5%
67.9%
58.4%
37.4%
219,346
350,350
255,077
-27.2%
34.7%
57.6%
53.1%
53.1%
Irving Park
241,716
393,120
285,623
-27.3%
33.3%
52.6%
46.8%
40.7%
Dunning
210,909
323,208
231,006
-28.5%
37.6%
52.4%
47.1%
25.2%
Montclare
205,907
326,910
203,263
-37.8%
37.6%
61.7%
59.1%
57.2%
Hermosa
189,387
340,502
205,773
-39.6%
37.5%
69.3%
62.0%
65.5%
Avondale
227,844
374,552
282,802
-24.5%
39.1%
66.2%
59.7%
52.8%
Logan Square
287,942
453,712
364,141
-19.7%
35.8%
49.2%
43.1%
20.3%
Humboldt Park
148,015
275,242
181,980
-33.9%
48.9%
70.0%
63.3%
29.4%
West Town
329,099
469,996
396,673
-15.6%
27.7%
45.1%
35.0%
26.3%
Austin
153,171
257,428
181,823
-29.4%
39.8%
60.6%
57.6%
44.6%
City of Chicago
207,946
325,543
255,400
-21.5%
27.8%
49.5%
44.0%
58.1%
Housing Market Indicators
Two neighboring communities (Austin and Humboldt Park) show higher foreclosure rates than
Belmont Cragin while two communities (Hermosa and Montclare) show a very similar foreclosure
rate to Belmont Cragin (see Figure 30). However, looking at the ratio of current year foreclosure
filings to previous year filings in neighboring communities shows that more recent conditions in
Belmont Cragin are not that different from most neighboring communities (see Figure 31). 4 Overall,
foreclosure filings are in decline in the last five years although there has been a slight increase in
2014.
4
Note that 1 indicates that foreclosure filings or sales in the current year is the same as previous year. Figures greater than 1
indicate the current year is greater than the previous year. Figures smaller than 1 indicate that the current year is less than
the previous year. This standardization was necessary for the purpose of comparison due to different sizes of local housing
markets.
28
While Belmont Cragin has a proportionally larger number of distressed property sales than most
neighboring communities and the city as a whole, distressed sales are higher in Austin and Humboldt
Park (see Figure 32). As noted earlier, a declining share of distressed property sales can be
interpreted as an indicator of local housing market recovery, and relative to most neighboring
communities, the pace of recovery in Belmont Cragin appears similar.
With few exceptions, there has been little change in the amount of property sales in Belmont Cragin
and in comparable communities over the last five years (see Figure 33; see footnote 4). In 2012 and
2013, Portage Park, Logan Square, and West Town experienced more sales activity compared to the
previous years. In 2014 there has been a decline in property sales in Belmont Cragin and in all
neighboring communities.
Figure 30 Foreclosure Rates in Neighboring Communities
Foreclosure Rates in Neighboring Communities
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2005
2010
2014
Source: Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University. U.S. Census (2000). American Community Survey (2010 and
2014). The foreclosure rate represents the share of residential foreclosure filings in total housing units with a mortgage,
contract to purchase, or similar debt.
29
Figure 31 Ratio of Current Year Foreclosure Filings to Previous Year Filings in Neighboring
Communities, 2010-2014
Ratio of current year foreclosure filings to previous year filings in
Neighboring Communities, 2010-2014
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University.
Figure 32 Share of Distressed Properties in Comparable Communities, 2010-2014
Share of Distressed Properties in Comparable Communities,
2010-2014
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
30
Figure 33 Ratio of Current Year Property Sales to Previous Year Sales in Neighboring Communities,
2010-2014
Ratio of current year property sales to previous year sales in
Neighboring Communities, 2010-2014
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Portage Park and Irving Park have vacancy rates very similar to that of Belmont Cragin (see Figure
34). All three have lower long-term vacancy rates than the City. Lower vacancy rates in Dunning and
Montclare may be due to the fact that a greater share of housing units in these communities is
owner occupied.
31
Figure 34 Long Term Vacancy in Neighboring Communities, 2013-2014
Long Term Vacancy in Neighboring Communities, 2013-2014
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2013_Q1
2013_Q2
2013_Q3
2013_Q4
2014_Q1
2014_Q2
2014_Q3
2014_Q4
Analysis of economic indicators and housing market conditions in neighboring communities show
that while some display a trend similar to Belmont Cragin, others do not. What distinguishes Belmont
Cragin from neighboring communities is that it experienced the biggest increase in renter housing
cost burden (along with Montclare) and a sharper decline in median household income (after Austin
and Montclare). We next look at comparable communities for a different angle on Belmont Cragin.
32
COMPARABLE COMMUNITY CONDITIONS
In this section we identify Chicago communities that are comparable to Belmont Cragin based on
socio-economic status and demographic composition, and then examine whether or not these
communities experienced similar changes as Belmont Cragin in the recent past using three points in
time: 2000, 2010, and 2014. Identification of comparable communities can help community leaders
better prepare for the future by monitoring trends in those similar communities, learn about novel
practices or programs, and potentially engage in collaborative partnerships.
We took a three-step approach to identifying comparable communities. First, we ranked all 77
communities in the city of Chicago using an index composed of 12 key socio-economic and housing
indicators. These indicators include per capita income, unemployment rate, poverty rate, estimated
home value, residential foreclosure rate, vacancy rate, crime incidents per thousand residents,
educational attainment rate, professional workforce, share of female headed families, owner
housing cost burden, and renter housing cost burden (see Appendix for the methodology and
definitions of indicators). Although not exhaustive, these indicators are informed by relevant urban
theory and community development practice and are believed to capture essential dimensions of
residential well-being and neighborhood conditions.
Figure 35 Comparable Communities
Using the community ranking,
we identified 4 communities that
rank very close to Belmont
Cragin: Archers Heights,
Brighton Park, East Side, and
Hermosa (see Figure 35). We
then investigated whether or not
they share other important
common characteristics with
Belmont Cragin that are not
accounted for by our index
variables. Namely, we looked at
whether or not they have a
similar (1) median household
income, (2) median rent, (3)
home value, (4) rate of owneroccupied housing units, (5)
proportion of Latino population,
and finally (6) distance from the
city’s central business district
and cultural center (Loop).
Brighton Park, East Side, and Hermosa are consistently similar to Belmont Cragin in three time
periods while Archer Heights appears to be similar to Belmont Cragin in the last two periods (see
33
Tables 9-11). Two communities, McKinley Park and Avondale, show similar characteristics as Belmont
Cragin in 2000, but positive changes in their index score in 2010 make them no longer comparable
with Belmont Cragin.
Table 9 Comparable Communities in 2000
Community
Population Median HH
Income ($)
Belmont
78,144
$59,056
Cragin
East Side
23,653
$53,871
McKinley Park 15,962
$50,349
Avondale
43,083
$50,015
Hermosa
26,908
$51,641
Brighton Park 44,912
$49,996
City of Chicago 2,919,052
$53,103
Median
Rent ($)
$859
Home
Value ($)
$222,011
Owner
Occupied (%)
55.3%
Latino
Pop. (%)
79.5%
$708
$751
$833
$815
$752
$847
$126,188
$157,942
$247,370
$205,617
$175,437
$207,946
70.3%
50.7%
37.4%
44.9%
51.1%
43.8%
76.4%
63.3%
58.7%
81.2%
86.2%
26.0%
Median
Rent ($)
$962
Home
Value ($)
$328,133
Owner
Occupied (%)
50.5%
Latino
Pop. (%)
78.9%
$1,003
$833
$848
$971
$997
$281,052
$169,916
$240,521
$340,502
$325,543
64.6%
71.4%
47.1%
46.3%
48.0%
76.0%
78.4%
85.3%
87.4%
28.9%
Source: U.S. Census. Monetary values are in 2014 dollars.
Community
Income ($)
Belmont
80,206
$47,307
Cragin
Archer Heights 12,959
$48,294
East Side
25,216
$45,763
$43,081
Hermosa
24,583
$46,271
$55,209
Source: American Community Survey (2006-2010 annual averages). Monetary values are in 2014 dollars.
Community
Income ($)
Belmont
79,069
$47,049
Cragin
Archer Heights 13,998
$47,177
East Side
23,739
$50,332
Hermosa
24,836
$41,040
$38,781
$57,724
Median
Rent ($)
$1,014
Home
Value ($)
$223,963
Owner
Occupied (%)
49.1%
Latino
Pop. (%)
79.4%
$934
$866
$977
$869
$1,105
$206,102
$135,248
$223,408
$182,561
$277,288
57.6%
69.3%
39.6%
46.5%
44.9%
75.6%
80.7%
89.3%
85.0%
28.9%
Source: American Community Survey (2010-2014 annual averages). Monetary values are in 2014 dollars.
34
Moving from these broad indicators, we then looked at housing market conditions in these
comparable communities to see how similar they are to what we have observed in Belmont Cragin.
Housing Market Indicators
Relative to the city and comparable communities, the national housing market crash in 2008 appears
to have had a more severe impact on Belmont Cragin (see Figure 36). Prior to the crisis, the
foreclosure rate in Belmont Cragin, which is measured as the share of residential foreclosure filings in
total housing units with a mortgage, was similar to rates observed in comparable communities and
lower than the rate observed for the city. However, in 2010 and 2014 Belmont Cragin had the highest
foreclosure rate among the comparable communities with only Hermosa displaying a similar trend.
Figure 36 Foreclosures Rates in Comparable Communities
Foreclosures Rates in Comparable Communities
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Belmont Cragin
Hermosa
East Side
2005
Archer Heights
2010
Brighton Park
City of Chicago
2014
Source: Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University. U.S. Census (2000). American Community Survey (2010 and
2014). Foreclosure rate represents the share of residential foreclosure filings in total housing units with a mortgage,
contract to purchase, or similar debt.
Examining the ratio of current year foreclosure filings to previous year filings in comparable
communities shows that more recent conditions in Belmont Cragin are not considerably different
from the comparable communities (see Figure 37). 5 Overall, foreclosure filings are in decline in the
last five years, although there has been a slight increase in 2014.
5
Note that 1 indicates that foreclosure filings or sales in the current year is the same as previous year. Figures greater than 1
indicate the current year is greater than the previous year. Figures smaller than 1 indicate that the current year is less than
the previous year. This standardization was necessary for the purpose of comparison due to different sizes of local housing
markets.
35
Figure 37 Ratio of Current Year Foreclosure Filings to Previous Year Filings in Comparable
Communities, 2010-2014
Ratio of current year foreclosure filings to previous year filings in
Comparable Communities, 2010-2014
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Belmont Cragin
Brighton Park
2010
East Side
2011
2012
Hermosa
2013
City of Chicago
2014
An increase in the volume of property sales is generally interpreted as a positive sign. With few
exceptions, there has been little change in the amount of property sales in Belmont Cragin and
comparable communities (see Figure 38). In 2014 there has been a decline in property sales in
Belmont Crain and Hermosa. This should be monitored to determine if this decline was temporary
(specific to 2014) or has continued into 2015 and 2016.
The decline in the share of property sales that are (financially) distressed can be interpreted as an
indication that the local housing market is recovering from the crisis. Relative to two of the
comparable communities and the city, recovery appears to be slower in Belmont Cragin (see Figure
39). In the last four years, the community has a greater proportion of distressed property sales than
Archer Heights, East Side, and the city as a whole.
36
Figure 38 Ratio of Current Year Property Sales to Previous Year Sales in Comparable Communities,
2010-2014
Ratio of current year property sales to previous year sales in
comparable communities, 2010-2014
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Belmont Cragin
Brighton Park
2010
East Side
2011
2012
Hermosa
2013
City of Chicago
2014
Figure 39 Share of Sales of Distressed Properties in Comparable Communities, 2010-2014
Share of Sales of Distressed Properties in Comparable Communities,
2010-2014
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Belmont Cragin Archer Heights
2010
Brighton Park
2011
2012
East Side
2013
Hermosa
City of Chicago
2014
37
Historically, the residential vacancy rate has been lower in Belmont Cragin relative to the city of
Chicago (see Figure 40). Examination of long term vacancy rates in the last two years at a quarterly
basis shows that this has been the case most recently as well. Two comparable communities, Archer
Heights and Brighton Park, also display a relatively low vacancy rate.
Figure 40 Long Term Vacancy in Comparable Communities, 2013-2014
Long Term Vacancy in Comparable Communities, 2013-2014
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Belmont Cragin Archer Heights
2013_Q1
2013_Q2
Brighton Park
2013_Q3
2013_Q4
East Side
2014_Q1
Hermosa
2014_Q2
2014_Q3
City of Chicago
2014_Q4
In sum, examining five basic housing market indicators in comparable communities shows that some
market conditions in Belmont Cragin are not significantly different from comparable communities.
However, as emphasized by the Housing Planning Committee and as evident in the data, the housing
crisis affected Belmont Cragin more than the city and housing market recovery seems to be relatively
slower in the community.
38
RESPONDING TO HOUSING DEMAND AND NEED
Belmont Cragin is a truly diverse community with people and households at all stages of life. It is
possible to retain this diversity with the current housing options through targeted strategies. To this
end, we looked at housing opportunity in the community through the lens of the household lifecycle
(see Figure 41) in order to identify potential needs of young families, empty nesters, and aging
householders that the Quality of Life Plan might address. We also include renters outside the
community since their future demand may impact Belmont Cragin’s housing options.
Figure 41 Housing and Household Lifecycle
Source: http://forecast.id.com.au/melton/household-suburb-life-cycles
39
Young Families
•
•
9,340 Households (43.4% of Belmont Cragin households)
Median income: $42,722 ($9,000 below City median)
Young families make up the largest portion of Belmont Cragin households (head of household is 2544 years old). The majority are renters (68%) and rent burdened (paying more than 30 percent of
income for rent) (see Tables 12 and 13). While most are lower income, some may be able to afford to
purchase a home in the community considering that the monthly mortgage payment for a $200,000
home is about the same as the median rent in Belmont Cragin and assuming sufficient down
payment.
Table 12 Housing Tenure, 2014
Householders Age 25-44
Owners
32.4% (33.5%)
Housing Tenure
Renters
67.6% (66.5%)
Source: 2014 Five-Year American Community Survey. Figures in parentheses are those the City of Chicago.
Table 13 Housing Cost Burden, 2014
Cost Burdened
Owner Cost Burdened
Households, Age 25-34*
#
%
613
55.9% (33.8%)
Rent Burdened
#
%
1,686
52.0% (42.4%)
*Note that figures are only available for age 25 to 34 rather than 25 to 44.
Source: 2014 Five-Year American Community Survey. Figures in parentheses are the City of Chicago.
Recommended Strategies:
•
•
•
•
•
Outreach and counseling to help families manage their tight budgets and keep up with rent
or mortgage payments.
Emergency Assistance Fund to provide one month’s rent to prevent eviction (e.g. State
Homeless Prevention fund).
Rental assistance for very low-income rent-burdened families (e.g. Chicago Low Income
Housing Trust Fund, which targets landlords renting to very low-income families).
Connect landlords of small and large multifamily building with Elevate Energy to find ways to
reduce energy costs.
Housing counseling to help families prepare to purchase and tools to help them save for a
down payment using (e.g. Individual Development Accounts).
40
Empty Nesters (or soon to be)
•
•
8,219 households (38.2% of Belmont Cragin households)
Median Income: $50,702 ($1,000 below City median)
Householders over age 40 but not yet at retirement age make up the second largest category in
Belmont Cragin. They may have school-age and/or adult children present, though this dissipates with
age as more children move out permanently from the home. Two-thirds of these households own
their home, and more than half are cost-burdened (see Tables 14 and 15). While there are fewer
renters, the majority of renters (60%) are rent-burdened. In either case, as kids move out, families
may be looking to downsize, especially as they get near retirement.
Householders Age 44-64
Owners
61.7% (54.4%)
Tenure
Renters
33.8% (45.6%)
Belmont Cragin
Owner Cost Burdened
#
%
3,798
54.3% (37.9%)
Rent Burdened
#
%
3,747
60.2% (50.5%)
*Note that figures are only available for age 35 to 64 rather than 45-64.
•
•
•
•
•
Outreach and counseling to help families manage their tight budget and keep up with rent or
mortgage payments.
Counseling to help owners facing foreclosure, preferably before they get into hardship, to
refinance and secure their homes.
Connect homeowners to home repair programs and sources to reduce energy costs.
Develop affordable housing options for residents age 55 and older households to stay in the
community.
For renters, the same strategies recommended for young families above can be deployed.
41
Senior Citizens
•
•
3,378 Households (15.7% of Belmont Cragin households)
Median income: $33,263 ($3,000 above City median)
While a smaller portion of the population, senior citizens’ needs increase as they age, especially if
they want to age in place – whether in their own home or a different one in the community. For
these households, their low-income, although higher than the city for this age group, means limited
options. For owners struggling to pay their mortgage (Tables 16 and 17), downsizing into a more
accessible and supportive living environment may be a goal. Others may want to stay in their home
but find ways to use it more effectively.
Householders Age 65+
Owners
68.4% (62.5%)
Housing Tenure
Renters
31.6% (37.4%)
Belmont Cragin
Owner Cost Burdened
Households, Age 65+
#
%
989
42.8% (39.7%)
Rent Burdened
Households, Age 65+
#
%
721
67.4% (60.3%)
Recommended strategies:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Outreach and counseling to help families manage their tight budget and keep up with rent or
mortgage payments.
Counseling to help owners facing foreclosure, preferably before they get into hardship, to
refinance and secure their homes.
For renters, the same strategies recommended for young families above can be deployed.
Home sharing program to connect homeowners with tenants.
Counseling to help owners explore financial options to age in place (e.g. reverse annuity
mortgages, equity lines of credit).
Home repair programs that include adaptations for aging.
Developing a senior village concept (e.g. Lincoln Park Village, which provides services and
offers social events for an annual fee).
New affordable rental housing.
42
Potential External Demand: Nearby Renter Households (Age 25-44)
On average, people in Chicago move every 5-6 years. However, with development moving west from
Logan Square, some renters may be looking for more affordable options in the near future in nearby
Hermosa, Humboldt Park as well as Belmont Cragin where rents are lower and housing more
affordable (see Table 18)
Younger renters who may or may not have children may move to find more affordable rents or to
seek homes to purchase. While not immediately adjacent to Belmont Cragin, there are many renters
in Logan Square that have purchasing power (median income is $73,215) and relatively smaller
household size (see Tables 19 and 2) Depending on their needs, Belmont Cragin offers a lot of
housing at a good value, especially if they are looking to purchase in a community with good schools.
While nearby Hermosa and Humboldt Park are options, both have fewer home purchase options.
Lower income renting families who are feeling squeezed by rising rents in Logan Square may also be
looking to move where they can find a better value and larger units. This can include Belmont Cragin
but also Hermosa and Humboldt Park, where rents are lower. Over time, rental prices may rise with
increased demand if vacancy rates drop.
Table 18 Median Rent and Home Value in Neighboring and Nearby Communities, 2014
Median Housing Prices 2014
Monthly Rent
Home value
Belmont Cragin
$934
$206,285
Hermosa
$899
$205,773
Humboldt Park
$920
$181,980
Logan Square
$1,031
$364,141
Source: 2014 Five-Year American Community Survey.
Table 19 Renters Age 25-44 in Nearby Communities, 2014
Renters age 25-44*
Total number
Median income*
Hermosa
2,090
$40,036
Humboldt Park
5,613
$38,844
Logan Square
11,800
$73,215
Rent Burdened**
53.7%
55.2%
35.8%
*In 2014 dollars. **Note that figures are only available for age 25 to 34 rather than 25 to 44.
Table 20 Renter Household Size in Nearby Communities, 2014
Renter Household Size*
Hermosa
Humboldt Park
Logan Square
2 or less person
44.6%
49.5%
70.2%
3-4 person
36.5%
31.8%
21.7%
5 or more person
18.9%
18.7%
8.1%
43
It’s important to anticipate potential change brought on by increased and/or different demand from
outside the community. The Gentrification & Neighborhood Change: Helpful Tools for Communities 6
which includes many of the strategies above, provides the community examples of specific policies
and practices that can mitigate the negative impact of change on current residents. This includes:
•
•
•
6
A broad effort to increase the supply of lower-cost housing for lower income families
including multifamily rental housing with large enough units for families and smaller units for
an aging population looking to downsize and stay in the community.
Preserving the affordable housing that is there now, especially for moderate income renters
and owners (e.g., a community land trust can lock in affordability ‘in perpetuity’ for some of
Belmont Cragin’s renter and owner-occupied housing).
Pursuing a means to provide tax relief for lower income long-term residents and property
owners.
http://www.voorheescenter.com/#!toolkit/c18k6
44
APPENDIX
45
Comparable Communities Index Methodology
In order to find comparable communities we developed a scoring method (an index) to rank
communities along different dimensions. Index construction can simply be defined as a systematic
ranking procedure that combines multiple indicator values into a single composite score. Combining
twelve community level indicators to a single index score is achieved by the following mathematical
formula:
I t = x1,t w1 + x2,t w2 + ... + xn ,t wn
n
= ∑ x j ,t w j
j =1
Notation:
I= index,
x= indicator,
W= weight,
t= time
n= number of indicators
Since the summation in this formula requires indicators to be in the same unit 7, therefore we
converted all 12 indicators to a form comparable to each other by the statistical rescaling technique
called “Min-Max Normalization”. Min-Max Normalization technique essentially performs a linear
transformation on the original data values and turn them to real numbers within the range of [0, 1].
The formula for normalization is:
𝑧𝑧𝑖𝑖 =
𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 − min(𝑥𝑥)
max(𝑥𝑥) − min(𝑥𝑥)
Notation:
𝑧𝑧𝑖𝑖 = normalized indicator value for community i,
𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 = original indicator value for community i,
min(𝑥𝑥)= minimum indicator value among all communities,
max(𝑥𝑥)= maximum indicator value among all communities,
This process also normalizes the variances 8 of the different indicators. Normalization adjusts the
magnitude of indicators in such a way that aggregate index scores are not influenced by the
variances of the different indicators. Without normalization, for example, if there is greater spread in
7
Note that not all 12 indicators are measured in same units. For example, income, rent, home values are measured in dollars
whereas unemployment, poverty, and vacancy are measured in percentages.
8 Variance is a measure of dispersion in a set. It is defined as the average of the squared differences from the mean.
46
income than in unemployment, then a community at the extreme in income will count more in the
aggregated index than a community at the extreme in unemployment.
Using normalized values, index scores are computed for individual communities. Please note that
indicators that are inversely related to community well-being (e.g. poverty rate, unemployment rate,
etc.) are entered into the formula in negative forms so that their magnitude influences the ranking
(index) score in opposite direction (Table 21).
Table 21 Index Variables and Their Relationship with Scores
Indicator
Relationship with
Indicator
Index Score
Per capita income
+
Crime rate
Unemployment rate
Educational
attainment
Poverty rate
Professional
workforce
Home value
+
Female headed
families
Foreclosure rate
Owner housing cost
burden
Vacancy rate
Renter housing cost
burden
Relationship with Index
Score
+
+
-
Index Indicators
Income per Capita
The mean money income received in the past 12 months computed for every man, woman, and
child in a geographic area. It is derived by dividing the total income of all people 15 years old and
over in a geographic area by the total population in that area.
Source: Longitudinal Tract Data Base, Brown University (2000). American Community Survey
(2006-2010 annual averages and 2010-2014 averages).
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment rate is calculated by dividing unemployed population with civilian labor force 16
years and older.
Poverty Rate
Poverty rate is the percentage of people who are below poverty level. It is calculated by dividing
the sum of persons who are below poverty level by the sum of persons for whom poverty status
is determined. The Census Bureau uses a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size
and composition to determine who is in poverty. If a family's total income is less than the family's
threshold, then that family and every individual in it is considered in poverty.
47
Index Indicators (continued)
Home Values
Median home value is the median value of owner-occupied housing units. Home values used in
this used study are estimated by the Census Bureau based on owners’ opinion about his or her
home’s worth.
Foreclosures Rate
The foreclosure rate is the percentage of housing units for which foreclosure filing is completed.
Percentages are calculated dividing foreclosure fillings by the sum of all the properties with a
mortgage or similar debt.
Source: Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University. Longitudinal Tract Data Base, Brown
University (2000). American Community Survey (2006-2010 annual averages and 2010-2014
averages).
Vacancy Rate
Vacancy rate is vacant housing units as a percentage of total housing units.
Violent Crime Rate
Violent crime rate is calculated by dividing total violent crime incidents by the total population
and multiplying it with 1000. Violent crimes include the following categories: (1) Murder, (2)
Criminal Sexual Assault, (3) Robbery, (4) Aggravated Assault /Battery, (5) Burglary, (6) Theft, (7)
Motor Vehicle Theft, (8) Arson.
Source: Chicago Police Department.
College Educated Population
Percentage of persons with at least a four-year college degree- calculated by dividing total
persons with four-year college degree or higher by the total persons 25 years or older.
Professional Workforce
This is the percentage of professional employees (by occupations). It is calculated by dividing
total employed persons in “management, professional, and related occupations” by total
employed civilian labor force 16 years and over.
48
Index Indicators (continued)
Female Headed Families
This is percentage of female householders. It is calculated by dividing female-headed families with
children by total number of families. Female-headed family is defined as a household with related
children under 18 years and with no husband present”.
Owner Housing Cost Burden
Cost burdened owner households are defined as those who are spending 30 percent of more of
their income on mortgage payment. It is calculated dividing cost-burdened owner households by
total number of owner occupied housing units with a mortgage or a similar debt.
Renter Housing Cost Burden
Cost burdened renter households are defined as those who are spending 30 percent of more of
their income on rent. It is calculated dividing cost-burdened renter households by total renter
occupied housing units.
49

Belmont cragin housing study

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