Market trends

8B · MONDAY, APRIL 24, 2006 · USA TODAY
Market trends
Dow Jones
USA TODAY
DJ Wilshire
industrial average
Internet 50
5000
x1.9% week
x0.3% week
x1.9% week
x0.3%
month
A weekly look behind the USA’s stock market movements
x6.4%
3 months
x3.3%
month
x3.9%
3 months
x1.2%
month
Week’s top 3 groups
Track the
major market
indexes
updated continuously
throughout the day at
money.usatoday.com
x1.7% week
x0.5%
month
x0.7% week
x4.0%
3 months
x1.7%
month
x4.2%
3 months
MARKET LAGGARD
Pharmaceuticals
Health care
W:unch. M:-5.1% Q:-3.4%
Trailing
capital goods. Investors also revealed their bullishness by going after small-company stocks in
growth mode. Meanwhile, the defensive areas of
the market, such as health care, pharmaceuticals,
household goods and utilities, are lagging. This
week will show if the bulls’ optimism was justified.
vs. S&P 500
Month
Quarter
Investors have
become so bullish that they’re
avoiding defensive industry
groups, such as
health care.
Utilities
Household goods
Insurance
Food retailing
Food & beverage
Real estate
Retailing
Banks
Data provided by Standard & Poor’s
Software provided by Miner3D
Energy
Nasdaq
composite index
x4.7%
3 months
Bulls’ optimism will get put to the test
It’s going to be a massive week for corporate earnings reports, and investors are expecting good
things. Not only did stocks gain 1.7% during the
week, but the gains are being driven by the bull
market favorites: stocks that gain when the economy is strong, such as materials, transportation and
S&P 500
Media
Tech hardware
Autos
Semiconductors
Consumer goods
Week: 7.2% Month: 12.9% Quarter: 6.6%
Weekly % changes
Software
8%
Week’s worst Telecom, -1.4%
0
Slipping
-6%
vs. S&P 500
Month
Quarter
April 21
Jan. 27
Week’s best
Peabody Energy
Arch Coal
Quicksilver Res.
Southwstrn Enrgy
BJ Services
Week’s worst
24.1%
19.3%
19.0%
17.7%
14.9%
World Fuel Svcs
XTO Energy
Unit
Forest Oil
Penn Virginia
0.7%
1.0%
1.8%
2.1%
2.3%
S&P 500
Consumer services
Improving
W: 1.7%, M: 0.5%, Q: 4.0%
vs. S&P 500
Month
Quarter
Business services
Financials
Capital goods
Week’s best Energy, 7.2%
Autos
Week: 4.0% Month: -0.7% Quarter: 1.0%
Weekly % changes
8%
Leading
Transportation
MARKET LEADER
0
vs. S&P 500
Month
Quarter
Materials
W:4.0% M:7.0% Q:14.2%
-6%
April 21
Jan. 27
Week’s best
Strong economic and corporate earnings growth is driving demand for
basic materials ranging from metals
to plastics and forest products.
Week’s worst
Lear
22.1% Gentex
Johnson Controls 7.9% Cooper Tire
LKQ
7.5% Monaco Coach
Drew Indus.
7.3% Ford Motor
General Motors
6.8% Coachmen
-3.8%
-2.0%
-1.0%
-0.4%
0.2%
Materials
M)
ge (
han
ly c
nth
Mo
Week: 4.0% Month: 7.0% Quarter: 14.2%
Weekly % changes
8%
0
-6%
April 21
Jan. 27
Week’s best
Week’s worst
AM Castle
Sensient Tech.
Pope & Talbot
Wellman
Steel Dynamics
16.0%
14.2%
13.5%
10.1%
9.1%
Sonoco Products
Amcol Int’l
Penford
A. Schulman
Ferro
-5.5%
-4.8%
-2.7%
-2.1%
-0.9%
Banks
Week
Media
Capital goods
Month: 3.3% 3.2%
Quarter: 9.3% Week
First Rep. Bank
17.1% Manpower
BankUnited Fin.
10.1% Labor Ready
Fremont Gen’l
8.4% On Assignment
East West Bancorp 7.2% Robert Half Int’l
IndyMac Bancorp 7.1% Equifax
12.2%
11.1%
10.7%
9.4%
7.3%
Month: -0.2% 0.8%
Quarter: -0.3% Week
Week
Comcast
Catalina Mktg
Arbitron
Omnicom
Scholastic
2.8%
2.5%
2.2%
1.0%
0.9%
9.5%
9.2%
9.0%
7.2%
6.9%
Many market pros watch industry
groups for economic signs. Each group
performs differently but often in a pattern during an economic cycle.
A green pole means
the industry group
rose for the week.
Consumer goods
Real estate
Month: -5.1% 3.8%
Quarter: -1.4% Week
Vertex Pharma.
MGI Pharma
Cephalon
Cambrex
Schering Plough
2Business cycle changes
uWhere investors think the market is
Consumer services
Month: -0.1% 1.0%
Quarter: 2.0% Week
Russell
WolvrneWrldWde
MarineMax
National Presto
V.F.
34.5%
21.5%
14.1%
12.7%
10.9%
Retailing
Month: -2.8% unch.
Quarter: 6.4% Week
New Century
Essex Property
Archstone-Smith
Acadia Realty
Lexington Props.
8.9%
6.5%
6.2%
6.0%
5.9%
Investors have liked what they’ve seen
from corporate earnings so far, helping
stocks to gain despite higher oil prices.
By Jim Sergent and Robert W. Ahrens, USA TODAY
Month: 2.8% 1.8%
Quarter: 12.6% Week
Gardner Denver
21.7%
Valmont Indus.
20.9%
Barnes
13.5%
United Tech.
12.4%
Univrsal Forst Prod. 11.9%
Pharmaceuticals
-0.9%
Studies show a large percentage of a
stock’s move can be traced to the
movement of its industry group. You
can choose a successful company but
lose money on the stock if the industry
group suffered.
Red poles mean the
group fell for the week.
Business services
Month: -1.0% 2.4%
Quarter: 5.1% Week
1Help with stock decisions
h)
ont
m
3ly (
r
e
art
Qu
Weekly change
Week’s best stocks in each industry group
1.4%
Why industry groups?
(Q)
e
g
n
cha
Financials
Month: 1.1% 2.0%
Quarter: 5.6% Week
Boyd Gaming
Pinnacle Entmt.
Bally Total Fitness
CEC Entmt
Corinthian Collgs
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
5.2%
5.1%
Semiconductors
Month: -1.6% 1.3%
Quarter: 4.2% Week
LaBranche
Northern Trust
Piper Jaffray
Jefferies
State Street
10.2%
9.3%
9.0%
9.0%
8.9%
15.3%
11.7%
11.0%
9.2%
9.0%
Food retailing
Month: -2.2% -1.0%
Quarter: 1.3% Week
Tech hardware
Month: 2.0% -0.7%
Quarter: 3.9% Week
MRO Software
Alliance Data
MoneyGram
RSA Security
Transaction Sys.
37.1%
19.4%
16.6%
15.0%
9.5%
Health care
Month: -3.8% unch.
Quarter: 2.0% Week
Sanderson Farms 18.4% United Nat. Foods
Corn Products Int’l 8.0% Nash Finch
Hansen Natural
7.9% Longs Drug Stores
Tyson Foods
7.4% Performance Food
Lance
7.0% Albertson’s
Software
Month: 3.3% 1.5%
Quarter: 1.1% Week
Hancock Fabrics 14.0% MEMC Electronic
Midas
8.5% Cymer
Haverty Furniture 7.5% Freescale Semi.
Gymboree
7.4% Fairchild Semi.
Big Lots
7.0% Micron Tech.
Food & beverage
Month: 2.6% 1.6%
Quarter: 10.0% Week
SurModics
Pharma. Prod. Dev.
Per-Se Tech.
ICU Medical
Quest Diagnostics
Telecom
Month: -0.2% -1.4%
Quarter: 3.9% Week
Rogers
Benchmark Elect.
Amphenol
Trimble Navigatn
Digi Int’l
2.0%
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
16.2%
15.4%
12.9%
11.8%
10.3%
Household goods
Month: -5.1% -0.2%
Quarter: -3.4% Week
12.9%
12.4%
10.7%
10.4%
10.2%
Transportation
Month: -4.8% 1.4%
Quarter: 8.3% Week
Citizens Comm.
Cincinnati Bell
Telephn. & Data
General Comm.
Qwest Comm.
2.7%
1.9%
1.8%
0.3%
-0.5%
Clorox
Spectrum Brands
Playtex Products
Church & Dwight
Estee Lauder Cos.
Swift Transport.
Heartland Express
Hub
Old Domin Freight
YRC Worldwide
4.5%
3.8%
2.8%
1.2%
1.0%
Utilities
Month: 3.3% 3.4%
Quarter: 14.2% Week
34.9%
19.0%
14.6%
13.7%
10.2%
Insurance
Month: -4.4% 2.4%
Quarter: -0.9% Week
Month: -1.3%
Quarter: 0.3%
Allstate
10.0%
ACE Limited
7.5%
Marsh&McLennan 6.7%
Presidential Life
6.3%
Selective Insur.
5.5%
S&P 1500
Month: -0.7% 1.9%
Quarter: -3.4% Week
Month: 0.9%
Quarter: 4.4%
TXU
16.2% MRO Software
Questar
10.1% Swift Transport.
Amer’nStatesWat. 9.8% Russell
Energen
7.9% Peabody Energy
Dynegy
6.3% Lear
37.1%
34.9%
34.5%
24.1%
22.1%
04/24/06
Key indicators
Market sifter
Data provided by Reuters Research, Lipper, USA TODAY Stock Meter1
Investors bullish for small stocks in growth mode
.
Top small growth stocks
Monthly share-price changes
Value
Large
x
Company1
size
y
Small
w Style v
Growth
1.7%
1.9%
0.9%
1.7%
2.2%
3.3%
4.2%
3.6%
4.1%
5.1%
6.8%
4.2%
4.6%
3.0%
6.0%
5.0%
Company
Monthly chg.2
Titanium Metals
49.8%
Todco
45.5%
Parallel Petroleum
44.1%
Blockbuster
42.3%
Level 3 Communications 40.4%
Source: Wilshire Associates
Value vs. growth: Value stocks are cheap compared to the market based on their expected price-to-earnings and
price-to-book ratios. Growth companies are more pricey based on those same measures.
1-Based on the largest 2,500 companies in the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000; 2 - Includes dividends.
The gauge stays; investor confidence remains strong
When the gauge’s reading is low, investors are confident about the stock market. The
number comes from a formula that analyzes how traders are hedging their bets.
Range for past 4 weeks
Friday’s close: 11.59
Volatility index
15
20
25
30
35
40
Fearful
Confident
52-week low: Feb. 16 10.23
52-week high: May 17 16.86
Stocks
Overlooked growers: One way to make money is to find fast-growing
Saucy sectors: Sector funds home in on one segment of the stock market,
companies before money managers and mutual funds do. These companies
have steadily increased their rate of earnings growth the past five years —
with the strongest growth coming in the most-recent quarter. Each are less
than 40% owned by big institutions.
such as technology or utilities. The hottest sector funds the past three months
are below:
Ticker and Stock Meter1 score
Conservative = 1; Aggressive = 5
ImmuCell
ICCC 3.5
Taylor Devices
TAYD 3.7
Presidential Realty
PDL.B 2.4
Traffix
TRFX 2.5
Knape & Vogt Manfctrng
KNAP 1.6
Allied Capital
ALD 1.5
Abn Amro Holding (ADR)
ABN N/A
Mod-Pac
MPAC 3.4
Carrollton Bancorp
CRRB 2.3
Smith & Nephew plc (ADR) SNN 1.8
Dreyfus Prem G China
US Global Gold Shares
Oberweis China Opportunities
US Global World Prec Minerals
ProFunds UltraJapan
Gartmore China Opportunities
Van Eck International Gold
Midas Fund
Eaton Vance Grtr Ind
Oppenheimer Gold & Sp
DJ Wilshire 5000
S&P 500
Close
$6.25
$5.84
$6.33
$6.06
$18.66
$31.01
$30.28
$10.66
$16.31
$44.90
5-year EPS 3-year EPS EPS growth
growth
growth last quarter
-21.4%
-9.4%
775.6%
-26.7%
-17.1%
737.1%
-20.4%
11.4%
639.9%
-22.6%
-4.2%
587.8%
-17.6%
-6.3%
579.6%
26.7%
42.4%
573.6%
-1.3%
5.8%
511.0%
34.2%
83.9%
406.6%
7.3%
8.6%
394.6%
-3.3%
6.4%
384.7%
1 — Thursday closes used to compute all returns; 2 — For more information, go to: http://stockmeter.usatoday.com
The stocks and mutual funds listed are not recommendations.
Investors should do their own research before buying any securities.
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index
Mutual funds
AGGRESSIVE
DPCAX
USERX
OBCHX
UNWPX
UJPIX
GOPAX
INIVX
MIDSX
ETGIX
OPGSX
Phone number
800-554-4611
800-873-8637
800-323-6166
800-873-8637
888-776-3637
800-848-0920
800-826-1115
800-400-6432
800-225-6265
800-225-5677
Total return
3 mos.
3 years
33.7%
161.9%
30.7%
242.6%
30.6%
NA
30.1%
296.9%
29.2%
326.6%
26.8%
NA
24.2%
186.0%
23.9%
210.8%
22.8%
397.4%
22.8%
212.9%
4.7%
57.3%
4.0%
47.0%
For updated quotes, send text message with
STOCK TICKER (e.g., MSFT) or FUND TICKER (e.g., AGTHX)
to 44636 (4INFO).
Quarter’s best mutual funds Top-performing funds for the last three months ended Thursday
Value: Looks for cheap, unloved stocks
Small companies
Bridgeway SC Vl
Pacific Adv SmCp
Kinetics SC Oppt
Royce Fund Oppt
Hanck Hrzn Brknrd
MDT Sm Cap Vl
Allegnt MltFcr SC
Midsize companies
12.7%
12.7%
12.4%
12.2%
11.1%
10.9%
10.6%
Core: Seeks earnings growth, low prices
Large companies
Lrd Abbtt Sc VOppt 13.8%
Hennessy Focus 30 13.6%
Kinetics Paradigm 11.5%
Fidelity Adv Lev Co
7.8%
WellsFrgo C&B MC
7.5%
RiverSrce MdCp Vl
7.4%
Delafield Fund
6.7%
Penn St Brk Sel Eqt
RiverSource Eqt Vl
American Fds FInv
BNY Hmltn LC Vl
Pac Cap Value
Pioneer Cullen Vl
ICAP Select Eqt
Small companies
8.0%
7.1%
6.7%
6.3%
5.8%
5.6%
5.6%
Frontier Microcap
ProFds Ultra SC
Hnnssy Crnst Gro
Abn Amro Tamro
Wasatch McCp Vl
Royce Fund Trust
Gartmore SC Ldrs
Midsize companies
17.0%
15.6%
15.3%
14.6%
13.9%
13.6%
13.5%
Reynolds Fund
Navellier Fndmntl
BlkRck US Oppt
Meridian Growth
AIM Inv Tri Endv
ProFds UltraMC
Mellon MC Stk
12.3%
11.1%
10.6%
10.0%
9.4%
9.0%
8.9%
Large companies
SnAm Eqt Tx Mgd 10.8%
J Hancock LC Eqt
9.2%
Capstone Strd SCE
8.0%
ProFds UltraDw 30
7.6%
TCW Focsed Eqt
7.5%
Columbia LG Gro
6.6%
US Glbl All Am
6.0%
Growth: Looks for high earnings growth
Small companies
Van Wgnr SC Gro
Van Wgnr Emrg Gro
Hennessy Crnst Gro
WellsFrgo SC Gro
Columbia SC Gro
Conestoga SC
Vn Kmpn SC Gro
Midsize companies
15.8%
15.7%
14.5%
14.2%
13.8%
12.8%
12.7%
Colmbia Mrs MC
Amer Cent Hertge
Drey/Fndrs MC
Rainier S/MC Eqt
CGM Tr Focs Fd
Alger SC & MC
Van Wgnr G Oppt
12.4%
11.9%
11.9%
11.4%
11.2%
10.6%
10.6%
Large companies
Sentinel Gro Ldrs
Allianz NACM
Neuberger Cntry
Allianz Pea Gro
FDP Mrsico Gro
Sentinel Cap Gro
Barrett Fds Gro
7.7%
4.6%
4.1%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
Source: Lipper
I asked for feedback.
I got a feeding frenzy.
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