10/32 - ManagEnergy

SPOŁECZNA RADA NARODOWEGO PROGRAMU REDUKCJI EMISJI
National Action Renewable
Energy Plan
prof. Krzysztof Żmijewski
Sekretarz Generalny
Społecznej Rady
Narodowego Programu
Redukcji Emisji
24 February 2011 r.
Warszawa
1/39+10
1/32
1/44
Climate package Poland
POLSKA
 limit for emission of GG in 2020 comparing with low
emission in 2005 rnon-ETS sector
 =+14%
 decrease of energy consumption of 20% in 2020 r.
 = ???
 RES share in final energy consumption in 2020 r.
 = 15 %
Polish electroeneregy
system
Old technologies :
Energy safety
Production capacity
GG reduction capacity
Monitoring of energy demand or changes of
energy sources
Construction and connection of new energy
sources, including low emission sources
3/32
Problems of energy
sector
Outdated technologies
(high emission)
Geographical inconsistency to
needs of economy
Low energy efficiency
High coal monopoly
Low flexibility
4/32
67%
0%
Ciepłownictwo
kotłownie
sieci
Gazownictwo
przesył
dystrybucja
wydobycie
Elektroenerg
przesył
linie 400 kV
linie 220 kV
stacje
dystrybucja
linie
stacje
elektrownie
elektroKolejnictwo
linie kolejowe
podkłady
trakcja
Górnictwo
Rafinerie
Rurociągi
Porty morskie
Amortization of
infrastructure
INFRASTRUCUTRE
100%
80%
60%
Stopień
zużycia
min 64%
40%
20%
Stopień
zużycia
max 70%
5/32
Construction of new
energy sources
Construction of new power plants is a long time process :
 construction of Pątnow II - 6 years,
 construction of Łagiszy II 5 years,
 856 MW in Bełchatowie
is under construction since
4 years.
6/32
„Ancient” power plants
40% power plants is more than
40 years old, including ca.15%
of more than 50 years, so they
should
be
stopped
and
disconneted from the grid.
Power plants of more 30 years
old and more - 70%.
7/32
History of investments in
energy sector
Historia inwestycji
MW
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
5-latki
5660
4281
4155
3265
2920
2558
716
4550
5155
1808
1207
5660
6165
6670
7175
7680
8185
8690
940
683
419
9195
9600
0105
749
0610
8/32
Amortization of
infrastructure
POWER PLANTS
lata dekapitalizacji
40,00
30,00
22,22
14,29
100%
80%
79,10%
88,10%
92,14%
94,38%
60%
40%
68,01%
20%
0%
2,00%
2,50%
3,33%
4,50%
Stopień dekapitalizacji
50,00
7,00%
Stopa umorzenia
9/32
Lack of infrastructure
 Lack of connection infrastructure needed for development
of dispersed power production,
 Weak grid infrastructure in the regions of the highest RES
potentials – Northern Poland,
 Problems with connection of wind farms
to the grid
10/32
Lack of concept
Lack of concept:
 for financial support for construction of new energy
source and grids,
 for legal aspects
 for coordination of investments.
11/32
Amortization of
infrastructure 2/4
ENERGY SECTOR
Stopień dekapitalizacji
80%
73%
59%
60%
63%
51%
40%
20%
0%
elektrownie
sieci
przesyłowe
sieci
dystrybucyjne
ciepłownictwo
12/32
Amortization of
infrastructure 3/4
ENERGY SECTOR
71%
75%
13/32
Scale of investments
Distribution
4,4 mld euro
Energy sector 100 mld euro
14/32
Investment profile
0,98; 8%
TAURON 2020
0,2; 2%
4,4; 38%
GENERACJA plan
GENERACJA opcja
DYSTRYBUCJA
OZE
3,2; 27%
INNE
2,9; 25%
POLSKA 2020
GENERACJA konwenc
5,5;
11%
13,2;
27%
3,6;
7%
16,5;
33%
8,8;
18%
2,2;
4%
GENERACJA atom
PRZESYŁ
ROZDZIAŁ - DYSTR.
OZE
EFEKTYWNOŚĆ ENERG.
15/32
Why OZE?
!RES !
Unlimited potential
fossil fuels potential is depleting
policy of sustainable development
RES potential is not delicining along time– sources of
unlimited potential in time.
Energy safety
RES are not dependend from external supply;
Based on national sources;
Increase of energy safety
Technical amortization
National Grid
demand;
may have problems to cover energy
investment process is long-time one;
in the near future no new significant power plants will
be started;
RES, are built in relatively short time– chance for fast
supplement of system.
Investment programme
MW
0
1 000
2011
BEŁCHATÓW 2
2012
PŁOCK
4 000
GORZÓW ?
TYCHY
ST. WOLA
2015
D. ODRA 2
OPOLE 2
2016
D. ODRA 2
OPOLE 2
SIEKIERKI ?
TURÓW
WROCŁAW ?
KOZIENICE 2
POMORZANY
JAWORZNO III KOZIENICE 2
2017
LUBLIN ?
OSTROŁĘKA ?
2018
LUBLIN ?
BLACHOWNIA ?
2019
3 000
B. BIAŁA
2013
2014
2 000
CZECZOT ?
RYBNIK ?
RYBNIK ?
2020
2021
ŻARNOWIEC ?
2022
2023
ŻARNOWIEC ?
2024
2025
2026
KLEMPICZ ?
2027
2028
KLEMPICZ ?
2029
2030
ATOM
PGE
TAURON
ENEA
ENERGA
EDF
VATT
RWE
FORTUM
PKN ORLEN
20/32
Future of investments in
energy sector 1/4
55 years
life time
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
45-50
51-55
45-50
01-05
56-60
51-55
06-10
61-65
66-70
56-60
11-15
71-75
61-65
16-20
76-80
81-85
66-70
21-25
86-90
71-75
26-30
91-95
96-00
76-80
01-05
06-10
86-90
11-15
86-90
16-20
21-25
91-95
26-30
96-00
21/32
Future of investments in
energy sector 2/4
Historia i program inwestycji
MW
13590
15 000
12 000
10605
10110
9 000
4281
6 000
3265
2558
3 000
716 1207
0
5-latki
4550
5155
5660
6165
6670
5660
7175
4155
7680
2920
8185
1808
940 683 419 749
8690
9195
9600
optymistic
sustainable
?
0105
0610
6269
4644
2789
1115
4800
32003200
1600
1620
2125
2630
pesymistic
22/32
Future of investments in
energy sector 3/4
GW
9
6,6
Worth scenario
7
5,1
4,8
5
5,3
4,4
4,1
3,1
3
1
1,8
0,9
1,1
-1
-3
1,0
0,5
-0,3
1,1
-0,9
0,2
0,1
1,1
1,1
1,1
0,8
-2,0
-3,0
0,8
0,8
0,8
0,8
-1,0
-5
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PRZYBYTEK
2016
SUMA
2017
2018
2019
8,4
8,5
2020
UBYTEK
GW
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Better scenario
0,9
1,1
-0,3
2011
1,4
0,5
1,1
-0,9
2012
1,1
-2,0
2013
1,1
-1,7
2014
PRZYBYTEK
4,0
1,2
6,4
4,3
4,0
3,0
7,6
2,8
0,9
1,1
2015
SUMA
0,8
2016
0,8
2017
0,8
2018
0,8
2019
0,8
2020
UBYTEK
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Future of investments in
energy sector 4/4
40 years
lifetime lat
40
GW
30
20
10
2,6
2,6
3,3
3,3
4,5
4,5
7,7
7,7
12,0
12,0
17,7
17,7
21,8
21,8
24,8
24,0
0
-10
-20
-20
4550
5155
5660
6165
6670
SUMA
7175
7680
8185
24,2
23,7
20,9
20,9
17,3
17,3
17,9
17,2
23,7
23,9
24,2
22,4
22,6
25,4
25,6
14,5
2,6
0,7
1,2
3,3
3,3
4,3
4,3
5,7
5,7
4,2
4,2
2,9
2,9
1,8
1,8
8690
9195
9600
0105
0610
1115
1620
2125
2630
PRZYBYTKI
pesymistic
UBYTKI
optymistic
sustainable ?
24/32
Investment probability
MW
6 400
6 610
NIE PEWNE
MOŻLIWE
PEWNE
ATOMOWE
7 689
2 080
25/32
How to finanse
Programme ?
26/39+10
Investment potential
• potential of credits
52 mld zł
• potenctial of equity
65 mld zł
5xEBITDA
117 mld zł
9xEBITDA
• total
max
4xEBITDA
Investment needs
• M. Purta, W.Bogdan (McKinsey)
and efficiency)
112 -139 mld zł (without nucel
• as above with nucelar and efficiency
• K. Żmijewski (SR NPRE)
152 -195 mld zł
26/32
180 - 200 mld zł
Rainbow certification 1/2
Certificates
1 Green – energy from RES
2 Red – CHP
3 Blue – energy from modernizated energy
source
4 Orange – energy from experimental
technologies eg. „clean” coal
5 White – energy from„negawats”
6 Violet – energy from demethanization
27/32
Rainbow certification 2/2
Ziel
Pomar
Wolny rynek
Czerw
Białe
Błęk
Fiolet
28/32
www.rada-npre.pl
29/32
Thank you for your
attantion
Krzysztof Żmijewski
prof. PW
Sekretarz Generalny
Społecznej Rady
Narodowego Programu
Redukcji Emisji
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