to Presentation

America
@ 1 Billion?
Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP
Presidential Professor
Professor, University of Utah
Director, Metropolitan Research Center
Image: apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap001127.html
THEMES
1 Billion in 2100 is not unreasonable
US adds next 100 million faster than any
nation except India & Pakistan
Trends & Planning
g Scenarios
Where Will the People Live?
What Can Planners Do?
Low-Middle-High Census Projections
1300
1200
1100
00
Po
opulation
n
1000
900
Low
800
Middle
700
Hi h
High
600
500
400
300
200
2000-2100
Source: Projections from Population Division Working Paper 38, Census 1999.
Actual to Projections, 2005 & 2010
[Based on Census
C
2000 Projections]
Projection
Low
Middle
High
Actual/Trend
2005
284M
288M
292M
297M
2010
291M
300M
311M
310M
Source: Census 2000 projections from Population Division Working Paper 38, Census 1999.
Actual from Census 2007. Trend from Woods & Poole 2007.
Longevity
g
Bio-medical advances extend lifetimes.
Census adds 20 years : 76 to 96
But that’s not all …
Actuarial tables extend to 120.
Fertility
Year
2000
2025
2050
2100
Low
2.0
19
1.9
1.8
16
1.6
Middle
2.0
22
2.2
2.2
22
2.2
High
2.1
25
2.5
2.6
27
2.7
Immigration
Category
Cap
Entries
Relatives
Immediate Relatives
None
580k
Other
226k
228k
Employment
p y
144k
159k
Refugees, Asylees, Etc.
None
228k
Total
1 3M
1.3M
Trend Æ Between middle & high scenarios
Source: Adapted from Federation for American Immigration Reform analysis based on the Yearbook of
Immigration Statistics 2006, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC.
1 Billion Reached in Year:
2089 Æ Census high projection reached
2104 Æ Pew high
g trend extrapolation
2096 Æ Average
2100 = Planning scenario
Planning Two-Step:
• Plan
Pl for
f 500 million
illi tto mid-century
id
t
• Assess likelihood in 2020s to reach 1 billion
ALL THE USUAL ASSUMPTIONS …
Nuclear & biological war averted
http://incontiguousbrick.files.wordpress.
com/2007/11/nuclear war jpg
com/2007/11/nuclear-war.jpg
www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu/.../image002.jpg
The Mayan calendar is reset to 12012
http://1221-2012.com/images/mayancalander.jpg
Earth is not vaporized
http://gallery.artofgregmartin.com/xlg_img/cat3_xlg.jpg
Mars does not retaliate for the
Rover invasion
http://msp116.photobucket.com/albums/o16/moshitlikeitshot/mars_attacks.jpg
Trends & Planning Scenarios
• CO2 Emissions and the resilience of
renewall
• Water Demand
• Transportation and urban form
• Megapolitans & high-speed
high speed rail
• Planning for global warming & preparing
for sea
sea-level
level rise
• Special role of Great Lakes region
• The beauty of it all
CO2 Emissions Trend v. Planning @ 1 Billion
Billi Annual
Billion
A
l Tons
T
Use
Current
Commercial
1.3
R id ti l
Residential
12
1.2
Industrial
2.5
Transportation
2.0
Total
70
7.0
Equivalent Year
Trend
4.6
44
4.4
9.0
7.1
25 1
25.1
Planning
1.1
10
1.0
1.0
0.5
36
3.6
1966
Note: At current trends renewable energy will be two-thirds of
the energy stream in 2100.
Resilience of Renewal
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Retail structures rebuilt every 10-20 yrs.
Class B & C offices reb
rebuilt
ilt e
every
er 15
15-30
30 yrs.
rs
Class A offices renewed every 20-40 yrs.
High-density residential every 20-40 yrs.
Detached residential upgraded 25
25-50
50 yrs.
Built environment renewed 3+ times by 2100
Successive renewal = successively reduced
emissions.
Value of LEED Projects
2005 to 2010
TREND Minimum 25% LEED by 2020
TREND Minimum 50% LEED by 2040
TREND 100% LEED by 2100
Source: Figure from US Green Building Council, downloaded 3/4/08.
Density & VMT Æ With Little Planning
40
30
NET
Density @
20 du/ac
GROSS
Density @
10 du/ac
E
Exurban
b
Suburban
Fringe
Suburban
Subu
ba
20
Limited
Transit
Urban
10
37.5
34.0
30.0
27.2
Transit
Urban
19.8
0
50 - 250
1,000 - 3,000
250 - 1,000
6,000+
4,000 - 6,000
Units Per Square Mile
Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah, based on
Nationwide Household Transportation Survey, USDOT, 2001. Figure is VMT per
Transportation & Urban Form Æ TOD Role
Rail transit accessed
6M HH in 2000
By 2025 existing &
planned rail to
access 15M HH
By 2040 rail likely
to access 40M HH
2100 Planning TODs
to reach 200M HH
or 50% of population
Source: Figures from, adapted from Reconnecting America, Realizing the
Potential: Expanding Housing Opportunities Near Transit.
Portland MAX
Capacity @ 3.0 FAR = 2.5M people + 1.5M jobs
Dallas Area Rapid Transit
Capacity @ 3.0 FAR = 2.5M people + 1.5M jobs
Atlanta
MARTA
TODs @ 3.0
FAR:
p p
1.8M people
1.0M jobs
Atlanta
Atl
t B
Beltline
ltli
TODs @ 2.0 FAR
capacity:
1.2M residents
0.7M jobs
Corridor
Opportunities
Station
Area
Opportunities
Salt Lake Corridor Opportunities
60 miles of “Boulevard” prospects
30 000 acres currently
30,000
c rrentl @<0.25
@<0 25 FAR
All land ripe for revival by 2040
Revival parameters
Average
g 1.5 FAR
30 units per acre = 2M residents
per acre = 1M jjobs
60 jjobs p
0% change in developed land
~75%+ reduction in VMT
Salt Lake TOD Opportunities
30 Non-Boulevard stations
1-km p
planning
g area = 800+ acres
30,000 acres currently @<0.25 FAR
All land ripe for revival by 2040
Revival parameters
Average 1.5 FAR
30 units per acre = 2M residents
60 jobs per acre = 1M jobs
0% change
g in developed
p land
~75%+ reduction in VMT
Toward a Megapolitan America
Toward a Megapolitan America
Salt Lake
Denver
Las Vegas
Phoenix
Albuquerque
Tucson
T cson
Water @ 1 Billion
Water Trend Scenario
US d
domestic
ti consumption
ti
= 69 gpcpd
d
Current = 20B gpd
@1B = 69B gpd
Growth = 49B new gpd
Water Planning Scenario
Germany domestic consumption = 33 gpcpd
@1B = 33B gpd
gpd [[Great Lakes wildcard]]
Growth = 13B new gp
Wild Card Æ Sea
Sea-Level
Level Rise
Growing consensus on sea-level rise.
Plan now for consensus + error factor.
Century-long planning & investment needed.
Dover
Ocean City
H
Hampton
t
Virginia Beach
Norfolk
Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona
Dover
Ocean City
H
Hampton
t
Virginia Beach
Norfolk
Sea Level +1M
Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona
Jacksonville
Panama City
Daytona Beach
St. Petersburg
F t Meyers
Fort
M
Ft. Lauderdale
Miami
Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona
Jacksonville
Panama City
Daytona Beach
St. Petersburg
F t Meyers
Fort
M
Ft. Lauderdale
Sea Level + 1M
Miami
Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona
Source: http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glchallengereport.html
Great Lakes Resurgence?
• Global warming means in 2100 Detroit’s
climate will be comparable to Atlanta’s.
• Great Lakes has substantial infrastructure,,
urban land area, and topography to
pp
100s of millions of new
support
Americans by 2100.
• Sea
Sea-level
level rise is not an issue.
• Great Lakes provides world’s largest source
of fresh water to support growth.
growth
The Opportunity
The New Promised Land
Tear Up a Parking
g Lot,
Rebuild Paradise
Large, flat and well drained
Major infrastructure in place
4+ lane highway
g
y frontage
g Æ “transit-ready”
y
Committed to commercial/mixed use
Can turn NIMBYs into YIMBYs
Slide title phrase adapted from Joni Mitchell, Big Yellow Taxi, refrain:
Pave over paradise,
paradise put up a parking lot
lot.”
“Pave
Main Street 2050
http://www.cnu.org/sites/www.cnu.org/files/R0012614.jpg
Century-Based Planning in Two Steps
500 million by mid
mid-century
century is consensus
50-year planning can reshape urban form:
• Structures replaced once or twice in 50 years.
years
• Planning, investment to meet needs of 500M.
2020s assess probability
2020
b bilit off 1B iin 2100
Decisions to mid-century must preserve
options for last half of century.
50- and 100-Year
Parking Lot Development Capacity
C l l ti
Calculation
R
Result
lt
Redeveloped Parking Lot Acres
6.0M
Floor Area Ratio
1.25-2.50
New Residential Absorption
500M
Employment Absorption
300M
Bottom line: Existing parking lots and low FAR
buildings can absorb minimum 75%+ of all new
growth. Higher FARs and “green” new
communities can accommodate the rest.
rest
Actions Needed
Find low-FAR corridors and nodes to redevelop.
Estimate growth absorption potential in 25-year
25 year
increments
Stage transit corridor investment from bus to
BRT to light rail, sometimes heavy rail.
Engage stakeholders now to create “sector” and
“form-based code” plans to grease conversion
Explore win-win financial tools to bridge nearterm rate-of-return
rate of return gap for long term gain
The Beauty of it All
The City in 1880
http://occawlonline.pearsoned.com/bookbind/pubbooks/divine5e/medialib/images/div0065.jpeg
The City in 1980
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/images/mexico.jpg
The City in 2080
Image: Scientific America
THANK YOU
Image: apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap001127.html