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FAST_AoCs_04102014 1.docx
Areas of Change Catalog:
Ongoing and Future Phenomena and Hazards Affecting Aviation
compiled by Brian Smith, NASA Ames Research Center
April 10, 2014
DISCLAIMER
This information is provided by FAST to advance aviation safety.
The use of this information is entirely voluntary, and its applicability and suitability for any particular use is
the sole responsibility of the user.
The author is neither responsible nor liable under any circumstances for the content of this information, nor
for any decisions or actions taken on the basis of this information.
The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of the organizations that provided
input to it.
Introduction and Background
Beginning in 2001, the Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) complied a repository of Areas of
Change (AoC). An AoC is defined as any future phenomenon that will affect the safety of the
aviation system either from within or from important domains external to aviation.
An earlier version of this current catalog of approximately 120 Areas of Change was an FY2012
deliverable to the Aviation Systems Analysis Team (ASAT) within the NASA Aviation Safety
Program. The catalog will be used to help identify and corroborate the landscape of future
threats to aviation safety from other sources such as the Biennial NextGen Safety Issue Survey.
Among a wide spectrum of issues this catalog in particular addresses:
 Characteristics of NextGen/SESAR including key mid-term, Segment Bravo capabilities
 Air/ground automation
 Shifts in aviation personnel demographics
 Pilot training deficiencies and simulator fidelity
 Runway incursions/excursions
 Flight deck and aircraft systems
 Unmanned Aerial Systems integration
 Proactive safety systems & Safety Management Systems
 Commercial passenger/tourist spaceflight developments
 Hazards of de-orbiting satellite debris
The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the
global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational
concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the AoC concept, considering
that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept
under study producing unanticipated hazards. Different futures are composed of different sets of
Areas of Change.
Page 1 of 110
Essential Characteristics of Areas of Change:

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Transformations affecting the future aviation system come in two distinct categories.
o Progressive or rapid-onset physical, functional, and procedural changes that
stakeholders plan for the aviation system with the deliberate intention of
improving throughput, safety and/or efficiency/economics.
o Unintentional technological innovation, shifting operational tasks, subtle changes
in organizations or actors in the system, and contextual factors external to aviation
itself that can nonetheless influence the robustness of the support systems upon
which operational safety depends. Unplanned changes having operational effects
on the risk picture like shifting pilot demographics or deteriorating pilot
airmanship can be:
 Uncontrolled and inevitable phenomena such as aging pilots, a reduced
pool of pilots with military background or from the general aviation
community, pilot shortages due to international hiring, etc. or
 Controlled by pilot hiring incentives and qualification standards, the
curricula for pilot training, crew rest, duty assignments, CRM, SEs, etc.
Over time a disparity may develop between operational task characteristics and the safety
support systems and risk control measures due to1:
o A rapid change in an operational task for which support systems have not had
time to adapt.
o A gradual change in an operational task that has been undetected or not identified
as requiring additional support.
o Deterioration in support mechanisms arising from socio-economic factors. For
example, this may occur because the deterioration has been gradual and therefore
undetected, or it may result from deliberate decisions to reduce resource
allocation. Such deliberate decisions may reflect either a reduced capacity for
investment by operators beset by financial difficulties or a feeling that further
investment in safety is unwarranted, given the current low accident rate.
These transformations may:
 Have begun now and will continue into the future
 Have begun in the past and will actually cease at some point in the future
 Not yet be in place but will begin at some near- (0-3 years), mid- (4-7
years), and far-term (8 to year 2025) timeframe
Some transformations are known to aviation stakeholders.
Some are not.
Changes affecting future aviation safety can come from either within the system or from
events and circumstances outside aviation – the contextual environment in which aviation
operates.
Areas of Change are not hazards per se, but may when combined with other technologies,
operational concepts or related AoCs be the catalysts for hazards.
Areas of Change may modify the probability and severity of future risks
1
Assessment of Trends and Risk Factors in Passenger Air Transport, Civil Aviation Safety
Authority, Australia, 2008.
Page 2 of 110

Some changes – particularly of the unplanned or unintentional type - may take the form
of new contributing factors that should be included in detailed safety risk assessments.
Potential hazards associated with each AoC are listed in a separate column. Approximately 500
near-, mid-, and far-term hazards are contained in this deliverable document. A number of
transformational phenomena and hazards that have been in this inventory for years have
manifested themselves in recent high-profile accidents and incidents such as Air France 447,
Colgan Air 3407, and US Airways 1549.
The FAST comprising multi-national industry and government representatives as well as other
interested parties, maintains a comprehensive list of AoCs that may affect the future aviation
system. The time horizons for issues in this list vary between current and mid-term phenomena
not well understood by the aviation community and safety concerns in the more distant future,
say 25 years. This list is a comprehensive compilation of transformational phenomena affecting
the Global Aviation System (GAS).
The FAST AoC list is re-audited on a regular basis. In addition, the FAST Core Team
continuously monitors the aviation system and the external environment for new AoCs that may
arise – so-called “horizon scanning.”
AoCs represent an attempt to capture ideas resulting from the essential approach to any safety
problem: A mindset that says, “Something important may have been left out of the analysis, and
we need to find it.” These Areas of Change can be considered futures heuristics: “A method for
discovering knowledge or solving problems when no algorithm exists, using rules which involve
essentially a process of trial and error.”2
NOTE (1): Authoritative sources that document the validity of the AoCs and take them out of the
speculative domain are also included in this catalog.
NOTE (2): The AoCs listed below are a subset of the original 2004 listing of over 240 AoCs
identified in the early days of the FAST. Many of those early AoCs have already come to pass
and are no longer future phenomena. Those early AoCs have been removed. In addition, AoCs
that contained disputed content have likewise been removed and no longer appear in this list.
Other AoCs contained duplicative content and have been synthesized and merged. The nonsequential numbering reflects that evolution.
Useful Heuristics Concerning Predictions of Technology Changes3:
 First rule: Make predictions about things that will come to pass, not about things that won’t.
Jules Verne described electric submarines, TV news, solar sails, “phonotelephote” (video
calling), “atmospheric advertisements” (skywriting), and “electronic control devices”
(tasers). Arthur C. Clark predicted the “newspad” (iPad). Ray Bradbury, the “thimble radio”
(earbuds/bluetooth headsets), Isaac Asimov, the pocket calculator, and George Orwell,
2
Gregory, R. L. (Ed.). (1987). The Oxford companion to the mind. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, p.
312
3
Pogue, David, “The Future is for Fools: A few guidelines for anyone attempting to predict the future of
technology,” Scientific American, February 2012, p. 29
Page 3 of 110

ubiquitous security cameras. History demonstrates that predicting something will not happen
is risky.
Second rule: History is going to repeat itself. Experience demonstrates that certain trends are
virtually inviolable. Black and white formats always go color. Analog formats always go
digital. 2-D generally evolves to 3-D. Internet access is increasingly ubiquitous.
Technology development outpaces regulation.
“If there is one attitude more dangerous than to assume that a future war will be just like the last
one, it is to imagine that it will be so utterly different we can afford to ignore all the lessons of
the last one.”
-- John C. Slessor (1897–1979) from Air Power and Armies ©1936
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”
-- Mark Twain
Page 4 of 110
Index of Areas of Change
1. Introduction of new aircraft aerodynamic and propulsion configurations ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
3. Changes in design roles and responsibilities among manufacturing organizations ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
5. Introduction of new runway-independent aircraft concepts ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
6. New supersonic transport aircraft............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
7. New hypersonic aircraft ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
9. Accelerating scientific and technological advances enabling improved performance, decreased fuel burn, and reduced noise ........................................................................................................ 15
11. Air traffic composed of a mix of aircraft and capabilities ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16
13. Reliance on automation supporting a complex air transportation system .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
14. Advanced vehicle health management systems .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18
18. New cockpit and cabin surveillance and recording systems .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
19. Emergence of high-energy propulsion, power, and control systems.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
21. Advanced supplementary weather information systems ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
22. New cockpit warning and alert systems ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
27. Next-generation in-flight entertainment and business systems ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
31. New glass-cockpit designs in general aviation aircraft .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
33. Entry into service of Very Light Jets ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
36. Increasing implementation of Electronic Flight Bag (EFB) for efficient and safe operations .......................................................................................................................................................................... 23
39. Increasing use of composite structural materials ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
41. Ongoing electronic component miniaturization.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24
43. Highly-integrated, interdependent aircraft systems ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
47. Changing human factors assumptions for implementing technology ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
51. Delegation of responsibility from the regulating authority to the manufacturing, operating or maintaining organization ............................................................................................................... 26
53. Trend toward privatization of government ATC systems and airports..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
58. Shift toward performance-based solutions and regulations .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
64. Remote Virtual Tower (RVT) operational concepts........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
66. Societal pressure to find individuals and organizations criminally liable for errors in design and operations ....................................................................................................................................... 28
67. Economic incentives to form partnerships and outsource organizational activities ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
68. Global organizational models ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
69. Evolution in lines of authority, command and responsibilities within the air transport system ................................................................................................................................................................... 30
73. Increasing complexities within future air transportation systems ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
78. Increasing size of maintenance, ATM, and operations databases ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 32
80. Reduction in numbers of aviation personnel familiar with previous generation technology and practices ............................................................................................................................................. 33
82. Technologies and procedures enabling reduced separation.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
86. Evolution in the type and quantity of information used by ATM personnel ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
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87. Changing design, operational, and maintenance expertise involving air navigation system (ANS) equipment ...................................................................................................................................... 35
89. Increasing heterogeneity of hardware and software within the ANS system ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
93. Increasing reliance on satellite-based systems for Communications, Navigations, and Surveillance (CNS) Air Traffic Management functions ....................................................................... 37
95. Changing approaches to ATM warning and alert systems .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38
96. Increasing interactions between highly-automated ground-based and aircraft-based systems .................................................................................................................................................................... 38
97. Introduction of artificial intelligence in ATM systems ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
99. Increasing dependence on in-flight electronic databases................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
100. Increasing operations of military and civilian unmanned aerial systems in shared military, civilian, and special use airspace ................................................................................................... 41
101. Redesigned or dynamically reconfigured airspace .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
109. Increasing utilization of RNAV/RNP departures and approaches by smaller aircraft ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
113. Increased operations of lighter-than-air vehicles including dirigibles and airships ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
114. Increasing operations of cargo aircraft................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
117. Very long-range operations, polar operations, and ETOPS flights. ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
118. Emerging alternate operational models in addition to hub-and-spoke concepts............................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
119. Increasing numbers of Light Sport Aircraft ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 44
122. Accelerated transition of pilots from simple to complex aircraft .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 45
125. Operation of low-cost airlines .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 46
129. Growth in aviation system throughput................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
133. Assessment of user fees within the aviation system to recover costs of operation ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
136. Increasing use of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) products in aviation ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 49
138. Increased need to monitor incident and accident precursor trends ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 50
139. Increasingly stringent noise and emissions constraints on aviation operations ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 51
141. Changes in aviation fuel composition .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
142. Language barriers in aviation ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
144. Changing management and labor relationships in aviation ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 53
148. Increasing frequency of hostile acts against the aviation system.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 54
161. Increasing numbers of migratory birds near airports ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
170. Increasing manufacturer sales price incentives due to expanding competitive environment...................................................................................................................................................................... 55
174. New surface traffic flow management technologies ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
184. Increasing amount of information available to flight crew .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57
185. Introduction of Non-Deterministic Approaches (NDA) and artificial intelligence (self learning) in aviation systems ...................................................................................................................... 58
187. Shift in responsibility for separation assurance from ATC to flight crew .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 59
188. Introduction of new training methodologies for operation of advanced aircraft ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 60
189. Shifting demographics from military to civilian trained pilots................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
200. Increased dependence on synthetic training in lieu of full-realism simulators .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 62
202. Shortened and compressed type rating training for self-sponsored pilot candidates...................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Page 6 of 110
205. Operational tempo and economic considerations affecting flight crew alertness.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 64
218. Supplementary passenger protection and restraint systems ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65
220. Increasing functionality and use of personal electronic devices by passengers and flight crew ................................................................................................................................................................. 66
221. Introduction of sub-orbital commercial vehicles ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 67
222. Standards and certification requirements for sub-orbital vehicles .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
223. Increasing frequency of commercial and government space vehicle traffic ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
225. Entry into service of commercial, space-tourism passenger vehicles ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
226. Changes in the qualifications of maintenance personnel .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
230. Paradigm shift from paper based to electronic-based maintenance records and databases ........................................................................................................................................................................ 69
236. Increasing use of virtual mockups for maintenance training and for evaluation of requirements ............................................................................................................................................................. 70
241. Operational tempo and economic considerations affecting fatigue among maintenance personnel ......................................................................................................................................................... 70
242. Increasing single-engine taxi operations or taxi on only inboard engines of 4-engine aircraft.................................................................................................................................................................... 71
243. Novel technologies to move aircraft from gate-to-runway and runway-to-gate ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 71
244. High-density passenger cabin configurations.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 72
245. Worldwide implementation of SMS ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 73
246. World wide climate change trending towards warmer temperatures .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 74
247. New aircraft recovery systems in general aviation and commercial aircraft ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
249. Increasing demands for limited radio frequency bandwidth ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
250. Shortage of rare-earth elements.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 76
251. Introduction of new training methodologies for maintenance staff ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 77
252. Smaller organizations and owners operating aging aircraft........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 78
254. Aging maintenance workforce ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 79
255. New pilot licensing standards .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 79
256. Decreasing availability of qualified maintenance staff at stations other than home base of operation .................................................................................................................................................... 80
257. Reluctance among operators to implement voluntary proactive safety mitigations ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 81
259. Shift in the demographics of newly-hired air traffic controllers compared with retiree skills and interests......................................................................................................................................... 82
260. Increasing use of Controller Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC) for weather information and advisories/clearances ........................................................................................................ 83
261. Operational tempo and economic considerations affecting air traffic controller alertness ........................................................................................................................................................................... 84
262. Significant imbalances in regional personnel supply and demand ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 85
263. Shift from clearance-based to trajectory-based air traffic control ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 86
264. Use of non-approved and/or poorly maintained maintenance tools ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 87
265. Socio-economic and political crises affecting aviation ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 88
266. Single-pilot cockpits for large commercial transports ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 89
267. Increasing adoption of software defined radio systems in commercial aviation ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 90
268. Decrease in turboprop fleets and operations in the U.S. ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 90
269. Proliferation of voluntarily-submitted safety information .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 91
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270. Initiation of collaborative air traffic management ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 92
271. Improved surface operations technologies and procedures ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 93
272. Increased traffic flows involving closely-spaced parallel, converging, and intersecting runway operations ......................................................................................................................................... 94
273. Increased throughput utilizing improved vertical flight profiles and aids to low-visibility operations ................................................................................................................................................... 95
274. Widespread deployment of System Wide Information Management (SWIM) on-demand NAS information services ....................................................................................................................... 96
275: Introduction of touch-screen displays and voice recognition to the commercial flight deck ........................................................................................................................................................................ 97
276: Downsized vertical fins due to introduction of active flow control rudders for increased yaw control .................................................................................................................................................. 98
277: Introduction of stratospheric aerial platforms for Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) Air Traffic Management functions......................................................................... 99
278: Increasing disparity between future pilot supply and demand especially among the “feeder supply” of crew experienced in smaller commercial aircraft operations ................. 100
279: Increasing implementation of Auto Ground Collision Avoidance Systems (Auto-GCAS on civilian airliners) ..................................................................................................................................... 101
280: Dramatic increases in the fleets of 737 and A320 derivatives.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 102
282. Increasing reliance on procedural solutions for operational safety ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 104
283. Increased risk for non-standard flights .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 105
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Organization
The catalog of Areas of Change has been organized and clustered into eleven key domains:
1. Airspace and Air Navigation Services: ANS
2. Airport: AP
3. Authorities: AU
4. Environment including not only weather but contextual socio-technical-economic factors affecting aviation: ENV
5. Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul: MRO
6. Technology: T (including aircraft, ground, and space-based systems)
7. Operations: OP
8. Organizations: ORG
9. Passenger: PASS
10. Personnel including pilots, flight instructors, air traffic controllers, maintenance technicians and inspectors: PERS
11. Space Operations: SPACE
The following table illustrates the clusters of AoCs by primary domain of influence. Secondary domains that each AoC also affects are shown in the last column.
Page 9 of 110
The following table is the complete listing of the Areas of Change including:
 AoC number
 Primary Domain of influence
 Secondary Domain(s)
 Title
 Description
 Potential hazards arising from the AoC
 Corroborating Sources and Comments
Page 10 of 110
Secondary
Domain(s)
Primary
Domain
Number
Title
Abstract/Description
Onset
Timeframe:
Ongoing
Near: 0 to 3
years
Mid: 4 to 7
years
Far: 8 to 2025
Potential Hazards
Page 11 of 110
Sources and Comments
1
T
1. Introduction of
new aircraft
aerodynamic and
propulsion
configurations
NOTE: Related to
AoCs 5, 6, 7, 19,
21, 22, & 221
Improvements to the modern airplane
may occur as a result of breakthroughs
in many fields permitting evolutionary
improvements in performance,
improved computational capabilities
permitting multidisciplinary analysis and
design, and use novel ideas to redesign
the airplane. Such re-designs may
include blended wing body, joined wing,
novel propulsion/airframe integration.
These new aircraft configurations will
not see widespread implementation
within the timeframe of concept
development to large-scale production
(10 years).
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Technology advances outpacing the development
of mitigations for unintended, emerging safety
risks (SMS hazard)
Flight and operational capabilities incompatible
with current safety risk management methods
(SMS hazard)
Unfamiliar flight characteristics and control
response
Heterogeneous aircraft flying in common airspace
Unpredictable wake vortex characteristics
Novel stability and control issues depending on
how the propulsion system is integrated with lifting
surfaces and control effectors.
Evacuation delays
NASA asked the three largest U.S.
airframe makers to study advanced
concepts for next-generation ultraefficient airliners so quiet they could
barely be heard beyond the airport
boundary,
2014 - a350 morphing wing:
The A350 XWB will be a more efficient and quieter aircraft as the result of its advanced wing
design. Built primarily from carbon composite materials, the wing – which combines aerodynamic
enhancements already validated on the A380 with further improvements developed by Airbus
engineers – has been thoroughly tested in advance with cutting-edge computer technology and
in wind tunnels, optimizing it for fast cruise speeds that reduce trip times, improve overall
efficiency and extend the aircraft’s range. By intelligently controlling the A350 XWB wing’s
moving surfaces using on-board computer systems, the wing will be “morphed” while airborne –
tailoring it for maximum aerodynamic efficiency in the various phases of flight.
2014 – Braced for Change: Saving Fuel with High-Aspect Ratio Wings, Aviation Week and
Space Technology, January 27, 2014, pp. 40-42
November 2103 – Folding Wings Will Make Boeing’s Next Airplane More Efficient
A more efficient engine and composite wings that fold up will reduce fuel consumption on
Boeing’s 777x. With the 777x, Boeing has opted for longer wings that fold up when the plane is
on the ground, shortening the wingspan by just over 6 meters.
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/521796/folding-wings-will-make-boeings-next-airplanemore-efficient/
Beauty of Airplanes in More than Skin Deep
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/aeronautics/features/future_airplanes.html
Future-Airliner Concept Contenders Reveal Design Surprises;
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_01_16_2012_p21-413463.xml
New Vehicle Technology and the Next Generation Airspace System, Jim Smith, Matt Blake,
Sensis Corporation
NASA initiated a project to study the impact of advanced vehicles on NextGen

Analyze the impact of new vehicles on a NextGen NAS

Analyze how NextGen enables/impacts new vehicles

Analysis in terms of performance, safety and environmental

Identify gaps in current knowledge and analytical capabilities
Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop
Grumman presented their final reports
to NASA's Environmentally Responsible
Aviation (ERA) program. All submitted
preferred system concepts that either
met, or closely matched, NASA's
stringent noise, emissions and fuel-burn
targets for airliners entering service in
the late 2020s. Although the fact that
each concept scored high marks was
not unexpected, it was the array of
unanticipated technologies, innovations
and system attributes used by the
teams that surprised the agency.
February 2013: Airbus Predicts Move To Larger Planes: Says Airlines Want To Lower The CostPer-Seat On Existing Routes. An Airbus executive says that the company thinks airlines will
begin looking at larger aircraft as they seek to lower their cost-per-seat on existing routes.
Airbus' director for strategic marketing and analysis Andrew Gordon said in an interview in
Helsinki that there has been an "upscaling" in the airplanes that are being sold. He told
Bloomberg News that the changes are being "driven by existing routes getting bigger as well as
airlines lowering their seat costs." He said the trend is factored into the planemaker's sales
forecasts.
http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=042b80c1-40a4-42ee-916446396d1a0c85
In addition to an unconventional flyingwing design from Northrop Grumman,
and an innovative Rolls-Royce engine
with an extremely large fan powering
Lockheed Martin's box-wing concept,
the studies unexpectedly underlined the
significant benefits that would accrue
from flying advanced airliners within the
FAA's NextGen airspace system, NASA
says.
June 2013 FAA NextGen Implementation Plan, p. 42,
http://www.faa.gov/nextgen/implementation/media/NextGen_Implementation_Plan_2013.pdf:
Overview of Aircraft Operator Enablers; Aircraft Engine, Airframe and Fuel Technologies:

2014 – Additional Drop-in Aircraft Fuels; ASTM alcohol-to-fuel pathways

2015 – ASTM Standard Pyrolysis

2015 – New Airframe Technologies

2015 – More Efficient Engines
Page 12 of 110
3
OR
3. Changes in
design roles and
responsibilities
among
manufacturing
organizations
5
T
AP,
OP
5. Introduction of
new runwayindependent
aircraft concepts
Aircraft manufacturers are moving away
from their traditional role as the single
entity responsible for design and
manufacturing to the role of an
integrator/assembler. Large aircraft
manufacturers are now in the role of
integrating the processes and products
from suppliers from all regions of the
world. This is all the more important
because many newly introduced aircraft
are essentially derivatives of current
and past types. Knowledge of how
these airplanes have been designed
and manufactured has typically been
resident in a single organization.. In the
future, manufacturers may delegate
more of the design responsibility to
partnering companies and equipment
manufacturers in other regions of the
world.
Runway-Independent Aircraft (tilt-wing,
tilt-rotor, VSTOL, airships, wing-inground-effect). Terminal traffic flows for
this category of aircraft must be closely
coordinated with conventional traffic.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
Far
1.
2.
3.
4.
Inadequate transfer of expertise and/or
inadequate interface management
Lessons learned from past experience may not be
sufficiently covered by FARs and CSs.
Dependence on single, specialty suppliers for a
class of components by a number of
manufacturers may create common-cause
failures.
Potential loss of a larger systems view and
understanding of the total aircraft design.
Strategic Destruction of the North American and European Commercial Aircraft Industry:
Implications of the System Integration Business Model
By David Pritchard and Alan MacPherson
Canada-United States Trade Center
Department of Geography
State University of New York
Buffalo, NY 14261
CANADA-UNITED STATES TRADE CENTER OCCASIONAL PAPER NO. 35
Near misses during novel airport operations
Failure to yield aircraft rights of way
Airship loss of control during ground operations in
wind
Jet blast hazards in ground effect
Potential Effects of Runway Independent Aircraft on the National Aviation System
Virginia Stouffer, Jesse Johnson, Jing Hees, Jeremy Eckhause, Dou Long
12/1/2003LMI Report #: NS259T1
Examples of these concepts include
Disc-Rotor technologies that marry the
best features of a helicopter and an
airplane, the Disc-Rotor program aims
to develop a new type of aircraft
capable of a seamlessly transitioning
from hovering like a helicopter to flying
like a plane. The design is propelled by
rotor blades that extend from a central
disc, letting it take off and land like a
helicopter. But those blades can also
retract into the disc, minimizing drag
and letting the Disc-Rotor fly like a
plane, powered by engines beneath
each wing.
Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics: Foundation for the Future, Steering Committee for the
Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, Division on
Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/15/tech/innovation/darpa-future-war/index.html?hpt=hp_c3
The Disc-Rotor is a collaboration between DARPA and Boeing. Hoping to marry the best
features of a helicopter and an airplane, the Disc-Rotor program aims to develop a new type
of aircraft capable of a seamlessly transitioning from hovering like a helicopter to flying like a
plane.
The design is propelled by rotor blades that extend from a central disc, letting it take off and
land like a helicopter. But those blades can also retract into the disc, minimizing drag and
letting the Disc-Rotor fly like a plane, powered by engines beneath each wing.
Page 13 of 110
6
T
OP
6. New supersonic
transport aircraft
Technical feasibility, environmental,
regulatory and certification studies for
Supersonic Business Jets (SBJ) and
follow-on projects may result in product
launch decisions by aircraft
manufacturers and airline partners.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
Exposure of passengers and flight crew to
significant radiation levels due to high altitude
flight
Explosive decompression at high altitude
Mixed traffic in terminal environment
2014 update - Spike S-512 Supersonic Jet
A supersonic business jet (SSBJ) would
be a small business jet, intended to
travel at speeds above Mach 1.0.
Typically intended to transport about
ten passengers, SSBJs are about the
same size as traditional subsonic
business jets. Larger commercial
supersonic transports such as the
Aérospatiale, British Aerospace
Concorde and Tupolev Tu-144
'Charger' had relatively high costs, and
high noise, high fuel consumption and
some environmental concerns.
Several manufacturers believe that
many of these concerns can be dealt
with at a smaller scale. In addition, it is
believed that small groups of high-value
passengers (such as executives or
heads of state) will find value in higher
speed transport.
No SSBJs are currently available, but
several manufacturers are working on
or have worked on designs, including
but not limited to:

Aerion SBJ

HyperMach SonicStar

SAI Quiet Supersonic Transport

Next Generation Supersonic
Transport

Sukhoi-Gulfstream S-21

Tupolev Tu-444
Spike S-512 is a supersonic jet that will enable travelers to reach destinations in half the time it
currently takes. Passengers will be able to fly from NYC to London in 3-4 hours instead of 6-7
hours. LA to Tokyo in 8 hours instead of 14-16 hours.
Commercial airliners typically fly at .85 Mach (567 mph). Spike S-512 uses advanced engine and
airframe technology to cruise at average speeds of Mach 1.6-1.8 (1060-1200 mph).
http://www.spikeaerospace.com/s-512-supersonic-jet/
Aerion's supersonic business jet
http://aerioncorp.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersonic_business_jet
Page 14 of 110
7
T
7. New hypersonic
aircraft
9
T
9. Accelerating
scientific and
technological
advances enabling
improved
performance,
decreased fuel
burn, and reduced
noise
This class of vehicles may be used as
hypersonic transports and satellite
launch platforms.
Far
1.
2.
Aircraft productivity and efficiency will
likely be improved through advances in
aircraft aerodynamics, materials,
structures, and other disciplines that
improve performance parameters such
as lift-to-drag ratio (L/D), ratio of empty
weight to MTOW, and specific fuel
consumption. Technological
approaches to the above goals include
the use of boundary layer control and
“riblet” surface coatings to reduce
profile drag and parasite drag and the
use of new materials to reduce
structural weight fraction.
Ongoing
1.
Like the supersonic aircraft, the hypersonic
aircraft may expose passengers and crew to
significant radiation levels
On an aircraft traveling at hypersonic speeds, the
areas where different aircraft structures meet,
such as between the wing and fuselage and the
tail and fuselage, are areas of “chaotic
combinations” of multiple shock waves and
interference, especially when an aircraft is
traveling at high angles of attack. These areas
also experience uneven pressure and heating,
resulting in unknown loads and thermal stresses
Sudden and disruptive to aviation certification
processes, operational paradigms, and safety
http://www.centennialofflight.gov/essay/Theories_of_Flight/Hypersonics/TH23.htm
DARPA Falcon Project
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Falcon_Project
2014 NBAA Top Safety Focus Areas: http://www.nbaa.org/ops/safety/top-safety-focusareas/index.php
The rate of technological developments and implementation has increased dramatically,
challenging the ability to adapt or continue with obsolete systems.
New technologies are continuously introduced into the aviation industry, current
implementations include NextGen, unmanned aerial systems (UAS), and advanced avionics.
The next generation of air traffic control technologies already being implemented across the
country, known as NextGen, is changing from World War II technology to modern satellite
based tracking systems. This means new methods of routing aircraft and new landing
procedures. It is important that pilots receive adequate training on each new piece of
technology as it is implemented to maintain safety.
Today's avionics are advancing quickly. But without proper training, they can be very
dangerous. However, when properly trained, pilots can use new avionics technology to
drastically improve situational awareness. The NTSB has released a study that found glass
cockpit technologies in light aircraft did not produce a "measureable improvement in safety
when compared to similar aircraft with conventional instruments."
http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns - 2001
FAA Destination 2025 Strategy: Accelerate NextGen technology and operational improvements
to reduce noise, fuel burn, and emissions even with continued growth in system activity.
http://www.faa.gov/about/plans_reports/media/destination2025.pdf
Page 15 of 110
11
OP
11. Air traffic
composed of a mix
of aircraft and
capabilities
1. It is the interaction of aircraft of vastly
different size, speed and complexity in
procedural airspace will necessitate
close attention in the shorter term.
2. In the longer-term future (20252050), the airspace may contain and
even be dominated by a much more
heterogeneous mix of vehicles than
exist today. These fleets will include
conventionally piloted, remotely piloted,
and fully autonomous vehicles that
have large variations in speed, altitude,
mass, and operating characteristics.
3. Not all aircraft will have the same
level of equipage in the future. The
promise of advanced air traffic
management concepts such as SESAR
and NextGen relies on a critical mass of
aircraft equipped with the similar
technologies4. SESAR/NextGen
capabilities will not be used in certain
areas of the world. There will be
regions of the world that cannot afford
to equip their aircraft to
SESAR/NextGen standards. The
variation in sophistication of digital and
electromechanical systems within an
individual aircraft type must also be
considered. Unless fundamental
changes are made in aircraft lifespan
assumptions, there will continue to be
unavoidable mixes of new and reused
(legacy) software. There will be a
significant number of aircraft equipped
with more advanced avionics than the
majority of the legacy fleet.
Ongoing
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
ATC coordination problems when low-technology
aircraft are mixed with high technology aircraft in
high-technology airspace and associated.
Loss of separation of mixed technology aircraft
sharing same airspace.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Several
issues arise in a controller's sector, many
involving mixed equipage. Controller reviews the
events and prioritizes response to them.
Associated human performance hazard:
Controller misprioritizes response order of events.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: TMC Reroute
is de-conflicted by automation probe. Sector
controller resolves any remaining predicted
problems with the reroutes as necessary.
Associated human performance hazards: Sector
controller overly reliant on automation and TMU to
resolve sector issues. Controller fails to
identify/resolve predicted problems in a timely
manner.
Departure separation issues for between aircraft
equipped for “2014 - -off-the-ground” departures
and those unequipped..
Airports open only to equipped aircraft
Near mid-air collisions in complex Metroplex
environments.
While future technologies will provide new and
innovative solutions and efficiencies, it will be essential
to continually monitor triggers for airspace change,
review procedures and assess surveillance strategies.
4
2014 – Projections of utilization:

RNAV departures
–
Now at about 25% of all Part 121 departures
–
Estimated to be about 80% of all Part 121 departures in 2033

STAR arrivals
–
Now at about 28% of all Part 121 arrivals
–
Estimated to be 70% of all Part 121 arrivals in 2033
An assessment of trends and risk factors in passenger air transport, Australian Government Civil
Aviation Authority, © 2008 Civil Aviation Safety Authority
ISBN—978-1-921475-056-4
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=htt
p%3A%2F%2Fwww.casa.gov.au%2Fcorporat%2Friskreport.pdf&ei=2tkgU__fIIGG2wXkjYHIDA&
usg=AFQjCNHOab_sUYZWZz_SoB5modBDXLKAA&sig2=J70rE4vY3XE29aGFOlnq0Q&bvm=bv.62788935,d.b2I
Airspace Phase Transitions and the Traffic Physics of Interacting 4D Trajectories; Bruce K.
Sawhill, James W. Herriot
Sawyer, Michael, Ph.D., Berry, Katie, Ph.D., Blanding, Ryan, NextGen Human Hazard
Assessment Report, TASC, Inc., Washington, DC, November 2010
Bruce J. Holmes, and Ken Seehart, NextGen AeroSciences, LLC, Williamsburg, VA, Ninth
USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2011)
February 21, 2013: Airbus Predicts Move To Larger Planes: Says Airlines Want To Lower The
Cost-Per-Seat On Existing Routes. An Airbus executive says that the company thinks airlines
will begin looking at larger aircraft as they seek to lower their cost-per-seat on existing routes.
Airbus' director for strategic marketing and analysis Andrew Gordon said in an interview in
Helsinki that there has been an "upscaling" in the airplanes that are being sold. He told
Bloomberg News that the changes are being "driven by existing routes getting bigger as well as
airlines lowering their seat costs." He said the trend is factored into the planemaker's sales
forecasts.
Or a large group of airlines that successfully begins flying 4-D trajectories because: a. they have capable aircraft, and b. they are willing to invest in a computer system to generate the 4-D
trajectories.
Page 16 of 110
13
OP
AN
S,
AP
13. Reliance on
automation
supporting a
complex air
transportation
system
The nature of the functionalities of
automation has been continuously
evolving. Beyond early, simple
autopilots, over the years, automation
has taken on new roles. Greater
expectations for performance of the air
transportation system such as flight
path accuracy, fuel consumption, and
system throughput motivated this
evolution. Increasing levels and
sophistication of automation are needed
in order to maintain an acceptable
workload for flight crew in future
environments requiring precision
navigation and execution of time-based
clearances. In NextGen, greater
expectations for more efficient
management of air traffic will also drive
increasingly advanced automation in
ground and satellite systems. This
raises new questions on the roles and
responsibilities of pilots, air traffic
controllers, and possibly airline
operations centers.
A major concern is the increasing
reliance by flight crew, air traffic
controllers, maintenance and dispatch
on the proper functioning and graceful
degradation of the performance of
advanced automation. Flight crews and
air traffic controllers rely on automation
for proper management of off-nominal
and failure scenarios.
Ongoing
1.
Flight crew spending excessive time in a monitoring role
potentially compromising their ability to intervene when
necessary
2.
Failure of the flight crew to remain aware of automation
mode and aircraft energy state
3.
Unfamiliar modes of aircraft automation may result in a
perfectly normal flying aircraft suddenly taking on
characteristics that the pilot has seldom or never
previously encountered
4.
Latent flaws in the displays or primary flight control
system may go undetected, because not enough humanin-the-loop testing is performed
5.
Pilots may not be adequately trained to understand the
philosophy of the automation design when the
functionality is being automatically degraded in particular
situations for reasons know only to the software
6.
Inadequate software verification
7.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Surface automation
updates departure schedule based on time taxi clearance
issued via data communications. Associated human
performance hazard: Local Controller places aircraft in
position to allow arrival aircraft to clear runway. Controller
delays issue of takeoff clearance due to automation
schedule disagreement.
8.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Local Controller
issues takeoff clearance by voice when automation
schedule advises controller of appropriate departure
time. Associated human performance hazard: Controller
issues a voice amendment, but does not enter
amendment into ground surface automation.
9.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Weather or restricted
airspace results in congestion that controllers must
develop amendments for en route aircraft. Associated
human performance hazards: Controller successfully
develops route amendments, but fails to issue en route
amendment to pilot. Controller issues voice amendment
to en route aircraft that disagrees with route entered into
automation.
10. NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Ground controller
coordinates runway crossing with local controller.
Associated human performance hazard: Ground
controller fails to coordinate runway crossing with local
controller and authorizes aircraft to cross runway
(extremely high risk).
11. Aircraft now feature a greater number of automated
systems that require repairs and parts replacement. This
may have a negative impact on the number and
qualifications of aircraft mechanics needed.
12. Ground-based automation fails to recognize dynamic
nature of air traffic situation and is unable to find a
solution.
Page 17 of 110
April 18, 2013: During a Senate Commerce Committee hearing on aviation safety, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)
requested a decision from FAA by the end of the year on expanding the in-flight use of portable electronic
devices (PEDs) on commercial flights. McCaskill has been a strong advocate for the issue in recent months,
writing a letter to FAA Administrator Michael Huerta expressing her concern with the issue, and stating her
intention to introduce legislation forcing expanded use of PEDs if FAA does not move quickly enough. McCaskill
has also said she feels the rule is outdated because of commercial airlines' transition to pilots' use of iPads and
other tablet computers as electronic flight bags in the cockpit. FAA's Aviation Rulemaking Committee has a July
31 deadline to propose recommendations on changes to the current regulations on PEDs.
FAA Safety Alert for Operators (SAFo) 13002; date: 1/4/13
Air carrier accidents and incidents indicate an increase in “manual handling errors” among airline
crews. “Maintaining an improving the knowledge and skills for manual flight operation is necessary for safe
flight,” according to the Safety Alert.
May 2012 – Rozzi, Simone, and Amaldi, Paola, Organizational and Inter-Organizational Precursors to
Problematic Automation in Safety Critical Domains, ATACCS 2102 Research Papers
The main organizational precursors to problematic set up of automated alarms included: (i) a tendency to
frame implementation as an engineering routine project rather than an innovative safety effort; (ii) a
commitment to implementation without an assessment of the organizational capability to implement the
alarm; (iii) flawed service provider-software vendor integration; (iv) underspecified international standards.
Implications for policy makers and managers of automation programs are discussed.
In 2012, the European Aviation Safety Agency conducted a Survey on Flight Deck Automation. Many of the
responses to this survey corroborate the material in this Area of Change. Results of the survey are on the EASA
website at:
http://www.easa.europa.eu/safety-and
research/docs/EASA%20Cockpit%20Automation%20Survey%202012%20-%20Results.pdf
CAA PAPER 2004/10, Flight Crew Reliance on Automation, www.caa.co.uk, Safety Regulation Group
Sawyer, Michael, Ph.D., Berry, Katie, Ph.D., Blanding, Ryan, NextGen Human Hazard Assessment Report,
TASC, Inc., Washington, DC, November 2010
There are philosophical approaches with automation, following accidents there seem to be 3 things possible: (1)
Modify the aircraft, (2) Modify training, (3) Do nothing or (4) Fully automate the aircraft (un-crewed aircraft)
On these points:
1) This is what most manufacturers have done over the years, usually under pressure from CAAs because they
argued that they couldn’t influence the pilots’ environment. In addition, for automation failures whenever they
were related to envelope protection, occurrences that were so rare that normal training would not be a solution
Fokker modified the aircraft. Even so, Fokker jet aircraft are not safer than say the 737 fleet.
2) This is generally the approach used by other major manufacturers, and they have been relatively successful.
The safety record of the 737 fleet is at least as good or better than the A320, and over the years the cadre of
pilots flying both of these aircraft, one heavily automated and the other not fitted with a "dark cockpit" have
definitely learned to operate these aircraft safely. In other words, the pilot population has grown so large that the
group harvests and maintains the vigilance and tribal knowledge necessary to operate these aircraft, a vigilance
that goes beyond airline training and regulatory requirements.
3) We could say things like: a) "this is as good (safe) as it gets" and b) let's spend money on the motor vehicle
domain because the risk of death is much larger there.
Bottom line: We do not fully understand pilot decision making in unusual situations. When pilots lose control of a
serviceable aircraft, it is presumed to happen as a result of incorrect reactions to what they see - or what they
think they see. Understanding why pilots do what they do entails understanding how they gather their information
before they make decisions. It is not only a matter of employing techniques such as eye-tracking to check
instrument scan, but also an examination of pilot behavior, how pilots monitor each other, what interaction the
monitoring produces and whether it is effective.
Learmount, David, IN FOCUS: Loss of control - training the wrong stuff? FlightGlobal, January 2012
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/in-focus-loss-of-control-training-the-wrong-stuff-367220/
14
MR
O
OP
14. Advanced
vehicle health
management
systems
Future vehicle health systems may be
based on continuously updated vehicle
state matrices derived from networks of
multiple sensors. Advanced software
models incorporating the functional
characteristics of the vehicle may
process the sensor network outputs.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
18
PE
RS
AU
18. New cockpit
and cabin
surveillance and
recording systems
Recording of cockpit video and audio
data may permit enriched replay of key
flight events, encouraging more crew
interaction during debriefing, analysis,
reflection and self-discovery. These
technologies may offer additional
insights to airline Flight Operations
Quality Assurance (FOQA) staff or
accident investigation teams. However,
the flight crew may perceive such
systems as invasions of privacy and are
concerned about possible misuse of
information obtained from cockpit video
recorders.
Such information may eventually be
transmitted to the ground in real-time.
Mid
1.
2.
Systems of such complexity that they are unable
to yield to software certification techniques that
exist today. In some cases it is not the software
itself that is the issue it is the failed logic that
drives annunciations and/or changes especially
following system degradation/failures.
Sensors continuing to be the lowest reliability
components and therefore need to be redundant
to obtain the required system safety
Sensor failures producing single point failure of
multiple devices
Diversion of scarce safety resources away from
accident prevention to post-mortem forensics
Crews “flying by the book” though that may not be
the appropriate response in unexpected
situations.
Fleet-wide installation may cost … per aircraft for
systems that feature:
3. The light range: Even within a single picture, the
range of illumination can vary by a factor of
100,000 between the brightest scenes above the
clouds to a dimmed passenger cabin.
4. The temperature range: The temperature can vary
from -140 degrees F on the aircraft’s exterior to
more than 120 degrees F inside an aircraft parked
in the desert.
5. The power supply: This can vary and is subject to
dropouts during engine start. Cameras would
need to kick in within 50 milliseconds of aircraft
power loss
6. Cabin pressure changes: The rate of change in
cabin pressure can be rapid, should
decompression occur.
7. High reliability and ease of maintainability: These
are factors that must be considered.
Page 18 of 110
NASA/TM-2009-215764
Baseline Assessment and Prioritization
Framework for IVHM Integrity Assurance
Enabling Capabilities, Eric G. Cooper and Benedetto L. Di Vito, Langley Research Center,
Hampton, Virginia,
Stephen A. Jacklin, Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California, Paul S. Miner
Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, June 2009
http://www.thalesgroup.com/Portfolio/Aerospace/LandJoint_Products_Cockpit_Cameras_Surveill
ance/?pid=1568
CabinVu Wireless to be Installed in First Airline
http://www.iasa-intl.com/folders/belfast/cctv/CCTV-1.html
CabinVu Wireless to be Installed in First Airline, May 2010
http://www.prosecurityzone.com/News_Detail_Cabinvu_witness_to_be_installed_in_first_airline_
13559.asp#axzz2oKHX9lOy
19
T
19. Emergence of
high-energy
propulsion, power,
and control
systems
NOTE:
Associated with 1
Advanced systems such as open rotors,
hydrogen-fueled aircraft, and highpressure hydraulic systems may be
used in future aircraft.
In terms of technology trends, look for
far more generation and use of electric
power on future aircraft. Examples:
The engine generators on the 777 yield
240 kVA (2 @ 120 kVA). The 787 main
electrical power generation and start
system is a four-channel variable
frequency system with two 250 kVA
VFSGs on each of the two main
engines. The power from these
generators is supplied to the main load
buses through generator feeders and
generator circuit breakers - four times
as much power. The 777 has a 400 Hz
115 VAC power bus. The 787 has a
variable-frequency (360-800 Hz) 230
VAC system.
Commercial airplanes:

Recent developments: Electric
brakes; more electric architecture

Research: Medium term: Fuel cells
as APU, Long term: hybrid
propulsion

Fielding of high-energy-density,
light-weight batteries (Lithium-Ion)
Small airplanes:

Recent developments: engines for
self sustained powered sailplanes

Under development: hybrid
propulsion; full electric propulsion
Rotorcraft:

Under development: assistance to
autorotation, full electric propulsion
Unmanned aerial vehicles:

Electric propulsion already flying
on small UAS (Nano to close
range) and on High Altitude Long
Endurance)

Hydrogen-powered, longendurance unmanned vehicles
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Catastrophic failure of high-power gearboxes
Penetration of pressurized fuselages by failed
open-rotor fan blades
Explosions due to undetected accumulation of
combustible gases
Burst hydraulic lines
Failure of electro-mechanical actuators and
signal/power transmission cables
Failure of high-power alternators and power
distribution systems
Increased vulnerability to lightning strikes and
sunspot effects
High-strength induced magnetic fields in the
vicinity of the high-amperage conductors (large
conductors); coupling with other electronics?
Susceptibility of conductors connecting electronic
equipment bays to damage due to uncontained
engine failures; similar to vulnerabilities from
closely-spaced hydraulic lines (Sioux City)
2014 – Computer with nano-tubes:
In a technological tour de force, researchers at Stanford University have constructed a one-bit,
one-instruction programmable computer on a chip using carbon nanotube-based electronics
for all logic elements. Containing 178 carbon nanotube field-effect transistors, the computer is
only able to carry out only one instruction, called SUBNEG. However, SUBNEG is Turingcomplete, allowing the computer to run, albeit with an extraordinary level of inefficiency, any
program, given enough memory, time, and programming ingenuity.
One of the most difficult parts of cramming more computational power into a chip is not based
in lithography, but rather in getting rid of the heat associated with the operation of logic
elements. Some 15 years ago, the first transistors based upon the physical properties of
carbon nanotubes (CNTs) were invented. The essentially perfect atomic-level structure of
CNTs makes them excellent conductors of both electricity and heat. Combined with their tiny
size (with tube diameters no more than a few nanometers), this makes CNT-based devices a
solid candidate to complement, or even supplant, silicon microelectronics technology.
McClinton, C.R. (2008) High Speed/Hypersonic Aircraft Propulsion Technology Development. In
Advances on Propulsion Technology for High-Speed Aircraft (pp. 1-1 – 1-32). Educational Notes
RTO-EN-AVT-150, Paper 1. Neuilly-sur-Seine, France: RTO. Available from:
http://www.rto.nato.int.
Steps Toward A Practical Ultra-High Bypass Ratio Propulsion System Design, Doug Perkins
Engine Systems Branch, NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio, July 26, 2007
Introducing the 787 (Introducing_the_787.pdf)
- Effect on Major Investigations
- And Interesting Tidbits
The 787's electrical system generates almost 1.5 megawatts, or enough to power about 400
homes.
10. If overheated or overcharged, Li-ion batteries may
suffer thermal runaway and cell rupture. In
extreme cases this can lead to combustion that is
difficult to extinguish using conventional methods.
11. Deep discharge may short-circuit the cell, in which
case recharging would be unsafe.
Page 19 of 110
The 787 employs Lithium-Ion (Liion) battery technology. A first for
a major commercial transport
aircraft.
Electric Technology for Aircraft;
prepared for John Vincent, EASA,
21 December 2011
21
OP
T
21. Advanced
supplementary
weather
information
systems
The future evolution of weather
monitoring systems (i.e. advanced
supplementary cockpit weather
information systems and those provided
to air traffic control for NextGen and
SESAR) will allow aircraft and ATC to
identify, and then fly routes that have
the most favorable weather. These
systems will reduce the latency of
displayed information in the current
NEXRAD system. The source of the
latency is processing of the groundbased radar weather data from 159
weather surveillance Doppler radar
facilities (WSR-88D). The Weather and
Radar Processor (WARP)….
Europe? Okko Bleeker or Jos Kuijper?
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Traffic density on these routes rising to unsafe
levels
Dependence on platforms that do not have an
inherent safety function
Information clutter or distraction due to lack of
integration.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Last minute
flight plan changes are negotiated as necessary
based on the weather changes. Associated
human performance hazard: GA pilot fails to
incorporate weather information into go/no-go
decision.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Postdeparture, the pilot monitors weather updates as
provided by automated Weather Advisories.
Associated human performance hazard: GA pilot
ignores recommended weather advisory.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Postdeparture, the pilot monitors weather updates as
provided by automated Weather Advisories.
Associated human performance hazard:
a. GA pilot ignores recommended
weather advisory.
b. Commercial pilot ignores
recommended weather advisory
Page 20 of 110
2014 - Meteorological information provided in a digital manner
Building on existing national capabilities, the “new generation” of services will aim to improve
efficiency by providing the following:
•
Consistent meteorological (MET) information regarding location, time and user application
to reduce the risk of conflict and to enhance ATM predictability
•
Common and harmonized MET information
•
MET information based on the latest science and enhanced observation and forecasting
capabilities
•
MET information integrating forecast uncertainty to aid the determination of uncertainty and
risk and serve ATM decision making
•
Interoperable MET information within the European ATM system via SWIM (sharing data
between airlines, navigation services and airport operators)
•
Integrated MET information into ATM decision making
ASSESSMENT OF THE USE OF ELECTRONIC FLIGHT BAGS FOR DISPLAYING
ENHANCED TRAFFIC AND WEATHER INFORMATION ON THE FLIGHT DECK
Shu-Chieh Wu, Joel Lachter, Walter W. Johnson, Vernol Battiste, NASA Ames Research Center,
Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA
Connected Pilot is the first Connected Panel hardware and software system
http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=3f1f7e1d-dcc4-4a92-9360a2641919cbdc
22
T
PE
RS,
OP
22. New cockpit
warning and alert
systems
NOTE:
Counterpart to
this in the ATC
domain is 95
27
31
PA
SS
PE
RS
T
27. Nextgeneration in-flight
entertainment and
business systems
T
31. New glasscockpit designs in
general aviation
aircraft
Advanced audio, tactile, and visual
warning systems in aircraft cockpits.
Preventable accidents related to
erroneous flight instrument information
have occurred. These accidents likely
happened despite system reliability,
redundancy, and technological
advances that have improved on the
capabilities of earlier generation
airplanes. In addition, the flight
instruments on newer airplanes provide
more information to flight crews during
flight, and that information is more
precise. However, the fact that flight
crews are seldom confronted with
erroneous flight instrument information
contributes to these accidents.
To overcome the potential problems
associated with infrequent failures and
increased system complexity, flight
crews should follow sound piloting
techniques provided and the guidance
provided in operation manuals when
facing an air data anomaly. Recovery
techniques and other procedures are
also available for flight crews to
consider when confronted with
erroneous flight instrument information.
Buyer furnished equipment (BFE) is
becoming increasingly complex,
especially in-flight entertainment (IFE)
systems, internet connection services,
AC/DC power outlets, and seats.
Advanced GA cockpits are sometimes
more advanced than airliner cockpits.
This industry has discovered that it is
cheaper to build an integrated cockpit
design than it is to build individual
instruments.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Proliferation of caution/warning systems and
alerts overwhelming the perceptual and cognitive
abilities of the flight crew in critical phases of flight
Changing crew workload
Decreased situational awareness
Failure to harmonize/optimize certification
requirements for caution/warning systems
including coordination and prioritization for
multiple alert conditions.
Differences among automation use policies
among different airlines may affect
caution/warning implementations.
Transport Canada, Advisory Circular (AC) No. 500-001, Audio Alerts and Warnings, June 2007
Future Flight Decks, P. Douglas Arbuckle, Kathy H. Abbott†,
Terence S. Abbott and Paul C. Schutte, 21st Congress, International Council of the Aeronautical
Sciences, Paper Number 98-1.9.3
http://www.smartcockpit.com/aircraft-ressources/Erroneous_Flight_Instrument_Information.html
Consideration of prioritization, total workload, and
required situational awareness must precede
implementation of such systems.
Ongoing
6.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Conformance
Monitor generates excessive false / nuisance
alerts. Associated human performance hazards:
a. Flight crew ignores accurate conformance
alert and fails to issue corrective instructions
for a true alert.
b. Flight crew becomes overly reliant on
automation, fails to notice deviation when
not alerted.
c. Flight crew fails to confirm validity of
conformance alert.
1.
Hazardous effects of internal and external highenergy radiated fields emitted from these systems
Inadequate certification processes for flight-critical
aircraft systems and required maintenance
procedures
New demands on aircraft systems
Electrical failure of glass panel power supplies
Inability to successfully revert to backup manual
flight instruments
Obsolete databases not containing new obstacles
and departure/arrival routes
Information overload
Excessive heads down time
2.
Ongoing
3.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Page 21 of 110
Toward Next-Generation In-Flight Entertainment Systems: A Survey of the State of the Art and
Possible Extensions, Hao Liu, Ben Salem, and Matthias Rauterberg
http://www.idemployee.id.tue.nl/
g.w.m.rauterberg/publications/ASMAP2009paper.pdf
Introduction of Glass Cockpit Avionics into Light Aircraft, NTSB Safety Study, NTSB/SS-01/10
PB2010-917001
33
OP
33. Entry into
service of Very
Light Jets
These new 5 to 6 seat aircraft will be
capable of speeds above 380 knots and
certified for altitudes in excess of
FL410. Further, they are expected to
sell for significantly less than competing
business jets and are expected to have
lower direct operating costs.
Near
1.
2.
3.
Wake turbulence upset of lighter aircraft when comingled with heavier, faster jets
Explosive decompression at cruise altitudes
Dramatic traffic growth if VLJs materialize in
significant numbers.
FAA Cuts VLJ Forecast, Sees Growth In 2010, Kerry Lynch, Aviation Week, Apr 6, 2009
Contrary viewpoint: As of February 2013, Cirrus Aircraft is on a hiring spree as the development
of its Vision Jet moves into high gear toward the targeted 2015 delivery date. About 50 people
have been hired in Duluth in the past six months to fine-tune the new light personal jet, Cirrus
spokesman Todd Simmons said. Most hired are engineers, technicians and designers.
That brings the number of Cirrus employees in Duluth and Grand Forks, N.D., up to about 570,
with nearly 500 in Duluth - including virtually all of the jet program positions, Simmons said. This
is a major difference from a year ago, when the Vision Jet program had slowed for lack of capital
after several years of development. But when new owners China Aviation Industry General
Aircraft Co. invested nearly $100 million to bring the new light jet to market that put the program
back on track.
Orders for the Vision Jet are up to 525, the vast majority getting in before the price tag rose from
$1.72 million to $1.96 million on July 1, 2012.
Page 22 of 110
36
OP
PE
RS
36. Increasing
implementation of
Electronic Flight
Bag (EFB) for
efficient and safe
operations
More and more airlines are transitioning
from paper to electronic information
services known as Electronic Flight
Bags. These capabilities will provide
for electronic distribution and viewing of
navigation charts and other information
to be used on the ground in flight
operations or distributed to
crewmembers for on-line viewing or
data download.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
EFBs are certified to a higher level than
consumer electronic devices. This
includes certified software for aircraft
performance calculations.
7.
8.
EFBs are optional equipment for an
airline.
9.
10.
11.
12.
•
•
•
A Class I EFB has Type A
software and is generally used for
viewing electronic documentation,
etc.
A Class II system has Type B
software and is used for viewing
charts (in addition to everything
the Class I device does).
A Class III EFB has Type C
software and can display own-ship
position and communicate with
other aircraft systems such as the
engines.
Ship’s position can only be shown on
an EFB if the software is certified using
DO-178B.
13.
14.
15.
Obsolete databases not containing new obstacles
and departure/arrival routes
Cyber attack on database integrity
Heads-down distraction of crew pre-occupied with
EFB leading to loss of awareness of aircraft
energy state or attitude
Challenges of copying complex taxi clearances on
a touch-screen-enabled device
Difficulty in use of touch screens during
turbulence
Low time between failure compared with certified
equipment
Poor visibility/contrast of display
Failure of mechanical mount/electrical connection
in cockpit
Failure due to pressurization cycles
Susceptibility to radiated fields in cockpit
Failure of battery power.
Disconnect between aircraft/cockpit technology
and airline infrastructure
Pilots using EFBs for ship’s position for airport
surface indication without proper software
certification.
Defaulting to takeoff weights from previous flight
due to failure to enter current aircraft weight.
Discrepancies between takeoff speeds between
EFB and FMS. Takeoff speeds from the EFB can
overwrite the FMS calculations.
Devices used for presentation of this information are
sometimes sourced from the unregulated consumer
electronics industry. The means to protect against
cyber attack as well as means for the pilot to ensure
the correct/latest versions of databases are available
are as yet unclear. Also, there does not appear to be
appropriate regulation universally in place.
The use of computers in the calculation
of performance requirements has
brought about improvements in the
accuracy and ease with which they can
be made. There remains, however, a
continued vulnerability to the use of
incorrect data in making these
calculations, a solution to which
remains outstanding. This accident
serves to demonstrate that, given these
circumstances, the existence of and
adherence to robust procedures, and
appropriately designed software and
hardware, are essential.
The take-off phase of each flight is
critical as the error-tolerance margin
becomes very slim as the aircraft
approaches the calculated take-off
decision speed (V1). Normally, a
rejected take-off (RTO) will be
Page 23 of 110
Jeppesen Electronic Flight Bag Applications for Airbus Aircraft
http://jeppesen.com/documents/aviation/commercial/Airbus-EFB.pdf
AirTran now uses “iBook” format for departure and approach briefings particularly for
international destinations. These are presented using iPad functionality.
Jeppesen Introduces Electronic Flight Bag for iPad, Monday, August 20, 2012
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/topstories/Jeppesen-Introduces-Electronic-Flight-Bag-foriPad_77054.html
IPAD ELECTRONIC FLIGHT BAG
What: Fokker has joined forces with Navtech, a leading provider of flight operations solutions,
and developed an iPad compatible EFB application that may revolutionise the way we navigate
our skies.
Why: The iPad EFB Solution is EASA certified (Class 2 Type B), requires no expensive ICT
infrastructure and has a power reserve of up to eight hours. Easy installation ensures aircraft can
be converted with very limited downtime at a cost that is incomparable to anything else on the
market.
http://www.fokkerservices.com/iPad-EFB
B733, Chambery France, 2012 (LOC HF)
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/B733,_Chambery_France,_2012_%28LOC_HF%29?utm_so
urce=SKYbrary&utm_campaign=26ff7e095aSKYbrary_Highlight_04_07_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e405169b04-26ff7e095a276463842
Rejected Take Off: ATC Considerations
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Rejected_Take_Off:_ATC_Considerations?utm_source=SKY
brary&utm_campaign=e00211f1b8SKYbrary_Highlight_04_07_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e405169b04-e00211f1b8276463842
39
T
MR
O
39. Increasing use
of composite
structural materials
The use of composites will continue to
increase in aircraft structures.
Ongoing
1.
2.
Additive manufacturing (AM) involves
the ‘printing’ of 3D metallic parts, which
are built-up layer by layer from a
powdered metal. The method differs
from conventional manufacturing in that
objects are built iteratively (bit by bit),
as opposed to machining in which
swathes of material are taken away
(subtracted) from billets or castings. As
a result of this, AM gives a very high
conversion of starting material to
product and allows for exceptional
levels of design flexibility.
3.
Failure to detect sub-surface damage and delamination
Shedding of micron-sized particles due to fatigue
and chafing into cabin air with poorly understood
health risks to lung tissue
Damage due to high-current lightning strikes
2014 - Use of AM in aerospace (GKN):
The company believes that additive manufacturing (AM) presents a massive opportunity to
create complex shapes, some of which would be impossible to manufacture using
conventional methods, with higher functionality and different materials.
Using AM techniques, materials can be fused to form objects from 3-D models, building up
structures iteratively instead of taking forgings and then machining material away. AM can
produce highly complicated near-net-shape geometries with a good surface finish and, by
almost eliminating the machining process, can make great savings in cost and carbon
emissions.
GKN has invested heavily in exploring many different associated technologies but is presently
focusing on processes such as electron beam melting, selective laser melting, and direct metal
deposition techniques. It believes the potential for advanced welding and joining processes,
such as laser welding, linear friction welding (LFW), and friction stir welding, is very applicable
for future wing structures. LFW joins two items of material by rubbing them together until the
surface gets hot enough to become plastic. A load then forces them together forming the joint.
The technique can form near-net-shape engineered blanks, considerably reducing build costs.
This has been developed to reduce the amount of waste material that can emerge from a
forging (up to 90%).
NASA's Space Technology Mission
Directorate has launched several
initiatives for 3-D printing, also known
as additive manufacturing. "With
additive manufacturing, we have an
opportu-nity to push the envelope on
how this technology might be used in
zero gravity — how we might ultimately
manufacture in space," said LaNetra
Tate, the advanced-manufacturing
principal investigator for a program at
the directorate
http://www.gkn.com/aerospace/products-and-capabilities/capabilities/metallics/additivemanufacturing/Pages/default.aspx
Rolls-Royce 3D:
Rolls-Royce head of technology strategy Dr Henner Wapenhans said: ‘One of the great
advantages in the aerospace world is that some of these parts that we make have very long lead
times, because of the tooling process. ‘And then it takes potentially 18 months to get the first part
after placing an order - versus printing it, which could be done quite rapidly. Even if it takes a
week to print, that’s still a lot faster. ‘3D printing opens up new possibilities. Through the 3D
printing process, you’re not constrained by having to get a tool in to create a shape. You can
create any shape you like. ‘There are studies that show one can create better lightweight
structures, because you just take the analogy of what nature does and how bones are built up.
And so things that are simple things like brackets can be made a lot lighter.’
http://phys.org/news/2014-02-nasaboards-d-manufacturing.html
Low-Cost Composite Materials and Structures for Aircraft Applications, Dr. Ravi B. Deo, Northrop
Grumman Corporation,
Air Combat Systems, 9L10/W5, 1 Hornet Way, El Segundo, CA 90245, USA
http://ftp.rta.nato.int/public/PubFullText/RTO/MP/RTO-MP-069(II)/MP-069(II)-(SM1)-01.pdf
NewScientist Tech
Composite aircraft may hide dangerous flaws
16:05 22 November 2007 by Paul Marks
41
NT
41. Ongoing
electronic
component
miniaturization
Miniaturization of electronic systems is
often an enabling factor for demanding
aerospace missions. This is also true
for avionics elements, where
miniaturization often goes hand in hand
with a reduction of power consumption
which permits achieving further mass
savings.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
Susceptibility of line replaceable units to ionizing
radiation as a result of ongoing component
miniaturization
Inadequate power and cooling needs
Inadequate physical separation of miniaturized
systems
Page 24 of 110
http://spacewire.esa.int/edppage/papers/Avionics%20Architectures%20and%20Components%20for%20Planetary%20Entry
%20Probes%20-%20Session%20V%20-%20Trautner%20-%20V1.0.pdf
Radiation testing campaign for a new miniaturized space GPS receiver,
Underwood, C.; Unwin, M.; Sorensen, R.H.; Frydland, A.; Jameson, P.;
Surrey Space Centre, Surrey Univ., Guildford, UK, Radiation Effects Data Workshop, 2004 IEEE
43
T
43. Highlyintegrated,
interdependent
aircraft systems
NOTE: Related to 13
and also applies to
ATC domain
Integration of aircraft systems and
controls will provide unprecedented
utilization of automation,
communication, navigation and
surveillance accuracy and integrity.
Advanced automation is taking full
advantage of data sharing among
previously independent components
and systems. As more crew functions
are automated there is a high reliance
on the integrity and fidelity of the data
exchanged.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Input from Michael K., Bombardier?
6.
7.
47
PE
RS
OP
47. Changing
human factors
assumptions for
implementing
technology
NOTE: Related to
13.
Increasing understanding of the
capabilities/limits of human
performance and of best practices for
human-machine interaction. Increasing
pressure to augment humans with
automated systems and/or decisionsupport systems may characterize
future design philosophies. Systems
must be designed from the start to take
advantage of human flexibility and
creativity and to augment human
abilities and limitations with computers
in ground and aircraft systems.
Ongoing
1.
High and low criticality functions sharing
computing and data bus resources instead of
being physically separated. Software-based
isolation and independence is much more "fluid"
and difficult to assure than relying on hardware.
Lost or erroneous inputs can result in a cascade
of effects on the aircraft.
Inadequate self-checks to verify software for
accuracy and integrity due to system complexity
Software is an extremely complex engineering
artifact
Software can have latent faults due to this
complexity
Faults appear during operation when unforeseen
modes or interactions arise
Traditional techniques like voting and selfchecking pairs have shortcomings
o
Common mode faults
o
Fault cascades
Inaccurate assessment of total system safety due
to failure to take credit for the human contribution
to recover from adverse events
Ah assessment of trends and risk factors in passenger air transport, Australian Government Civil
ISBN—978-1-921475-056-4
The Dream Becomes Reality - Creating A Model For The Future - the training process to support
the B787,
http://halldale.com/insidesnt/dream-becomes-reality-creating-model-future
The principal training task was not so much how to physically fly the aircraft but rather, how to
learn to operate the highly integrated, interdependent and sophisticated systems in an optimum
way and with confidence.
Operational Use of Flight Path Management Systems – November 2013;
http://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=15434&omniRss=fact_sheetsAoc
&cid=103_F_S
NextGen Human Factors Research Status Report, May 2012;
http://www.jpdo.gov/library/2012_Human_Factors_Research_Status_v2.0.pdf
Dynamic Task Allocation: Issues for Implementing Adaptive Intelligent Automation,
Richard R. Sherry and Frank E. Ritter, Technical Report No. ACS 2002-2, 8 July 2002,
Penn State School of Information Sciences and Technology
A Tool for the Assessment of the Impact of Change in Automated ATM Systems on Mental
Workload,
Eurocontrol, Edition Number 1.0, Edition Date 31.08.2004
Novel Flight Deck Technology Introducing New Human Factors Issues (2001);
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/109/INTPOL2514%20_issue%202_.pdf
Also valid for future ATC workstations,
AOCs, maintenance, etc.
Part of the uncertainty of the future
involves the potential dichotomy
between human-centered and technocentered automation.
Page 25 of 110
51
OR
G
AU
51. Delegation of
responsibility from
the regulating
authority to the
manufacturing,
operating or
maintaining
organization
(see also 281)
New approaches to organizational
approvals may lead to more and more
delegation of responsibility and
privileges to the design, manufacturing,
training, ATC, and maintenance
organizations.
All aircraft manufacturers work with the
FAA throughout the certification
process. On certain activities, the FAA
has granted certain manufacturing
organization designation authority
(ODA) to act on behalf of the FAA. This
delegation is authorized by Congress,
and has roots that stem back several
decades. The FAA oversees ODA, and
the FAA’s delegation of authority allows
the agency to prioritize its review of
issues and to ensure that its own expert
personnel are devoted to the highestvalue activities.
Decades of experience have shown
that delegation is an effective and
essential way to ensure aviation safety.
The delegation system permits the FAA
to focus on its critical priorities—safety,
rulemaking, and certification—while
delegating routine compliance activity to
manufacturers, subject always to strict
oversight by the FAA.
Near
Inconsistencies in compliance with certification and
training regulations and the lack of FAA/EASA
standardization
Potential vulnerabilities identified in FAA’s oversight
and training from DOT Inspector General:

Beyond the change in the unit member selection
process, FAA’s ODA oversight methods (e.g.,
initial project review, site visits, and technical
evaluations) are similar to those used for past
forms of organizational delegations. Therefore,
FAA will likely face many of the same challenges
with ODA.

The IG identified instances in which FAA did not
act quickly to remove questionable unit members
and appointed an individual to a key ODA position
despite FAA engineers' objections.

Office of the Inspector General: Past FAA audits
discovered “after the fact” that delegated
organizations had either neglected a critical rule
or did not properly demonstrate compliance,
calling into question how adequately FAA reviews
new engineering project plans submitted by
delegated organizations.

For example, during initial project review, an FAA
engineer failed to detect that a manufacturer’s
certification plan did not demonstrate compliance
with specific aviation regulations governing design
and construction of aircraft flight controls.

Under ODA, FAA engineers will also have
expanded enforcement responsibilities, but the
Agency has not ensured that they are adequately
trained to perform these duties.

As a result, FAA engineers may not detect and
enforce all regulatory non-compliances.
Page 26 of 110
See http://www.ifairworthy.com/pdf/Papers/ContinuingAirworthy.pdf
February 2003
http://787updates.newairplane.com/Certification-Process
FAA Organization Designation Authorization Procedures:
http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Order/8100.15B.pdf
Office of the Inspector General: FAA NEEDS TO STRENGTHEN ITS RISK ASSESSMENT AND
OVERSIGHT APPROACH FOR ORGANIZATION DESIGNATION AUTHORIZATION AND
RISK-BASED RESOURCE TARGETING PROGRAMS - June 29, 2011;
http://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/dot/files/FAA%20ODA%206-29-11.pdf
53
58
OR
G
53. Trend toward
privatization of
government ATC
systems and
airports
AU
58. Shift toward
performance-based
solutions and
regulations
A growing number of countries have
shifted their government-sponsored air
traffic control systems into free-standing
corporations directly funded by airlines
and private-plane users. In Germany,
New Zealand, South Africa, the
Netherlands and Switzerland,
governments own the new companies
but they operate outside of civil service
and procurement rules and outside of
most governments' budgets. In
Canada, and soon in Britain, the
companies are partly or entirely owned
by private investors. In all cases, the
governments continue as air-safety
regulators and may have approval
power over user-fee increases.
Performance-based regulations have
the potential to vastly improve system
safety assuming graceful systems
degradation will be built in. There is a
significant shift in the way new or
revised regulations are being applied
transferring to the airlines the
responsibility for monitoring safety
performance and for acting on the
findings.
Near
1.
Pressures to reduce staff and equipment
expenditures to minimum levels with uncertain
safety consequences
Airport Privatization Issues for the US Dr. Richard du Neufvill MIT 1999
http://ardent.mit.edu/airports/ASP_papers/airport%20privatization%20issues%20for%20US.PDF
http://www.baf.cuhk.edu.hk/research/aprc/activities/files/Slides.ppt
http://www.icao.int/icao/en/ro/nacc/aps/01_pp_kesharwani_e.pdf
http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/transportation/airports-atc
Airports & Air Traffic
http://reason.org/files/aviation_annual_privatization_report_2010.pdf
Near
1.
The full safety implications of the introduction and
interaction of these new, performance-based
systems must be carefully considered. (Examples:
Required Navigation, Communications,
Surveillance Performance; RNP, RCP, RSP)
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/Events/Papers/RPPREPORT3.pdf
http://www.irccbuildingregulations.org/pdf/1-03.pdf
http://www2.icao.int/en/GRSS2011/Documentation/Presentations/PDF/3A-2John%20Vincent.pdf
http://www.easa.eu.int/sms/docs/The%20European%20Aviation%20Safety%20Programme%20(
EASP)%20-%20a%20pioneer%20approach%20for%20safety%20in%20Europe%20-v0.3.pdf
http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Order/1110-139B.pdf
http://www.nexacapital.com/press_releases/C2000_final.pdf
http://www.ngap.kr/images/documentation/Panel_6/6-2%20Stephane%20Clement.pdf
ICAO Safety Management Manual (Doc 9859)
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEMQFjAD&url=ht
tp%3A%2F%2Fwww.icao.int%2Fsafety%2FSafetyManagement%2FDocuments%2FSMM%2520
3rd%2520Ed_Final_icons_May13.pptx&ei=uQDHUqD_DIPb2AWuxYCAAg&usg=AFQjCNFRIM8
_sEAkHBrVJ4pOB5TaPf6xWA&sig2=XS7-myFTEwvdba4xDJkhfA&bvm=bv.58187178,d.b2I
“There is growing conviction within
aviation about the need to complement
the existing compliance-based
approach to safety with a performancebased approach…”
ICAO Safety Management Manual (Doc
9859)
Page 27 of 110
64
OP
AP,
PE
RS,
T
64. Remote Virtual
Tower (RVT)
operational
concepts
The RVT concept is aiming at providing:

Remote TWR services at small
and medium size airports, by
personnel (ATCO and AFISO)
located at a Remote Tower Centre
somewhere else

Contingency services at major
airports, in the case of fire or other
events that could take place at the
control tower building.
Contingency facility should be at
safe, nearby, but different physical
location

Synthetic augmentation of vision to
increase situational awareness at
airports during poor visibility
conditions, at the local airport
control tower facilities.
Near
2.
3.
4.
Reduced sensory information upon which
clearance decisions are based
Inadequate awareness of other conditions on or
around the airport that may affect flight operations
(such as nearby weather formations)
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: As departing
aircraft taxi to runway, ground controller overly
relies on observing automation to monitor
conformance. Associated human performance
hazard: Ground Controller fails to issue corrective
instruction to resolve conflict because of lack of
alert from surface automation. Ground controller
is overly reliant on remote conformance alert.
2014 - As the first supplier on the market, Rohde & Schwarz enables customers to create virtual
control centers using the R&S VCS-4G voice communications system. The company, which
offers complete solutions from the controller's microphone to the antenna at the radio site, is
laying the foundations for mastering future challenges in air traffic control. The fully VoIP-based
system in line with the EUROCAE ED-137 B standard features a distributed, redundant
architecture. In addition to classic voice communications, it integrates a wide variety of data
applications. For example, video images of out-of-view airport areas, text messages with weather
data or alarm functions can be displayed directly on the air traffic controller's working position.
Controllers can use this additional information to improve their situational awareness and quickly
respond to critical changes.
Steps Towards the Virtual Tower: Remote Airport Traffic Control Center (RAiCe)
N. Fürstenau, M. Schmidt, M. Rudolph, C. Möhlenbrink, A. Papenfuß, S. Kaltenhäuser
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Inst. of Flight Guidance Braunschweig
Staffed NextGen Towers (SNT)
January 21, 2010 by Praxis Foundation
http://praxisfound.wordpress.com/2010/01/21/staffed-nextgen-towers-snt/
ART – Advanced Remote Tower
http://www.caats2.isdefe.es/private/evt/1164198583171011/ART.pdf
66
EN
V
AU
66. Societal
pressure to find
individuals and
organizations
criminally liable for
errors in design
and operations
Airline pilots are the ones who are most
frequently singled out for prosecution.
Airline pilots sign for and assume
command of their aircraft, passengers,
and cargo before leaving the gate. To a
large degree, airline pilots are typically
the last individuals in the event chain
who might be able to alter the outcome.
Simplistic reasoning presumes that an
airline incident or accident that does
occur must be the flight crew’s fault. In
addition, they always end up at the
scene of the mishap, alive or dead, and
so are physically accessible targets for
blame.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
Reduction in normal incentives to perform
research that may reveal possible design defects
and operational errors
Reluctance to file safety reports, thus reducing the
possibility of learning from occurrences.
Industry members taking a more defensive rather
than co-operative attitude towards regulators.
Disturbance of the open atmosphere in which
industry and authorities jointly discuss safety
issues.
In an era of pro-active risk management, a
comprehensive knowledge and understanding of the
major threat to the aviation industry, criminalisation, of
design or operational activity is required
There has never been a more pressing
time - following the Linate, Überlingen,
Tuninter and recent Concorde and
Helios court decisions - to consider
aviation law, civil and criminal liability
and the criminalization of aviation
professionals.
Page 28 of 110
The view from afar: remote control moves closer to reality
http://www.searidgetech.com/Docs/Jane's%20PDF.pdf
First mentioned in 1946, deteriorating professionalism continues to trouble the industry.
http://flightsafety.org/files/resolution_01-12-10.pdf
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=bca&id=news/bca0309p1.x
ml
&headline=Flight%20Risk:%20The%20Threat%20of%20Criminalization
http://cf.alpa.org/internet/tm/tm072700.htm
http://www.alpa.org/portals/alpa/magazine/2003/May2003_CriminalLiability.htm
ALSTCO -Legal Liability and Criminalisation of Post-Holders and Airline Managers' Course,
February 27-28, 2012, Dorint Hotel - Schiphol Airport - Amsterdam - Holland
67
EN
V
OR
67. Economic
incentives to form
partnerships and
outsource
organizational
activities
Aviation-related businesses have
engaged in partnership and outsourcing
(contracting) activities for many years,
but recently the pace and scope of
aviation outsourcing has increased.
While considerable opportunities exist,
businesses need to prepare carefully
and take into consideration a plethora
of strategic, business, operational and
legal issues in deciding what to
outsource and whether to form
partnerships.
This has been seen in:
The contracting of aviation
maintenance, engineering, and logistics
services by nearly every major airline
some without robust reporting systems
in the contracting organizations.
Increasing US airport reliance on
contracting/outsourcing of a wide range
of facilities and services.
The emergence of virtual airlines where
aircraft are owned by a leasing
company and operated by a separate
airline entity
Airlines, IT vendors
Complex industrial partnerships
between engine, airframe, component
and system manufacturers
Increased complexity and interactions
of the world's financial systems
cascading into financial pressures on
the aerospace system.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
Degradation of prior, robust, aviation cultures that
were previously based on personal relationships
Sudden ruptures in economic relationships
including just-in-time supply chains, and available
safety resources due to world market upheavals.
Failure to detect emerging issues resulting from
faulty or broken reporting systems in dispersed
organizations across world economic centers.
Operation by airlines at maximum profitability –
e.g, at their cost minimums – increases the
likelihood of an accident. Organizational
profitability impacts safety risks in predictable
ways. A recent analysis documented a 7 percent
decrease in the likelihood of an accident for every
10 percent deviation in an airline’s performance
from its profitability goal. Risk tapers off when
airlines move away from their target in either
direction according to a report by Brian Maffy at
BYU. Statistics of rare events requires that this
result be treated cautiously.
Virtual airlines: As airlines around the world transition to new fleets to become more efficient, that
transition facilitates changes in MRO markets around the world. Worldwide fleet trends are
evolving and what they mean for the civil aviation aftermarket is being studied. This market is
valued at $56.2 billion annually now. What are the implications for both providers and operators?
The technologies used to manage the aftermarket, as well as the strategies for independent
MROs must be examined in light of the added emphasis on MRO by the OEMs. The airline
business is a complex combination of high technology, financial risk and hardball politics.
Financing: With the ongoing financial crisis, banks are reducing investment in aircraft financing.
How will financing models evolve to suit a new reality?
Low-cost airlines: What are the impacts of low-cost airlines on the market and business models?
Accelya Kale Solutions Limited, part of the Accelya Group - a leading provider of airline financial
and business intelligence solutions to the airline industry, announced that Hawaiian Airlines has
chosen Accelya Kale's passenger revenue accounting solution, REVERA PRA, to re-engineer
their passenger revenue accounting process
Jeppesen, a part of Boeing Digital Aviation, will provide Emirates airline with Jeppesen Crew
Rostering services to optimize crew scheduling for its global commercial aviation operations,
through a new 10-year service agreement
ISBN—978-1-921475-056-4
Principles of Successful Outsourcing of MRO Services
Paul Kerpoe Aviation Consulting
http://businesstravelcoalition.com/campaigns/outsourcing/outsourcing_issue_analysis.pdf
Practices and Perspectives in Outsourcing Aircraft Maintenance
DOT/FAA/AR-02/122, Office of Aviation Research Washington, D.C. 20591
Virtual Safety – Airlines are tightly regulated as they are for a good reason – and while virtual
airlines can provide what looks to customers like an airline product, there are crucial differences,
editorial in Flight International, 22-28 February 2011
Maffly, Brian, BYU scholar finds safety risk highest when airlines are closer to financial targets,
The Salt Lake Tribune, December 28, 2011
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/53193506-78/safety-airlines-madsen-profitability.html.csp
A new statistical analysis by a Brigham Young University business scholar has found that the
closer an airline comes to meeting its financial targets, the more likely it is to crash a plane. Yet
as profitability increases beyond expectations, the accident rate goes down, confounding the
notion that airlines trade safety for profits.
"Risk tapers off when airlines move away from their target in either direction," said study author
Peter Madsen, assistant professor of organizational leadership and strategy at BYU. "Once you
are operating beyond your goals there is less pressure to operate as efficiently as you can."
Madsen studies the association between profits and risk-taking in many industries. Aviation lends
itself to this pursuit thanks to a wealth of available data. Even privately held airlines must
disclose financial results, and federal agencies track all safety-related incidents.
"The true implication of this work is that organizational profitability impacts safety risks in
predictable ways and that this effect occurs even in very safe industries," Madsen writes in the
study, to be published in the Journal of Management and available online. "The analysis
presented here clearly demonstrates that safety fluctuates with profitability relative to aspirations,
such that accidents and incidents are most likely to be experienced by organizations performing
near their profitability targets."
Page 29 of 110
68
69
OR
G
OR
G
68. Global
organizational
models
AU
69. Evolution in
lines of authority,
command and
responsibilities
within the air
transport system
Future commercial organizations may
consist of geographically distributed
functional nodes (under separate
ownership) connected electronically
with one another. The five major global
airline alliances now control half of the
passenger travel market, according to
Airports Council International. Star
Alliance, OneWorld, Skyteam,
KLM/Northwest have over 50 percent of
total world scheduled passenger
numbers in 2003 based on ACI and
IATA statistics.
Ongoing
In a rapidly changing environment an
understanding of organizational trends.
This is required to facilitate the choice
of more effective management solutions
that may involve complicated
interactions among people, materials,
and financial arrangements.
Near
Possible evolutions:

Shift away from direct lines of
authority and command toward
distribution of responsibilities

Centralized control
1.
2.
Safety problems escaping notice due to lack of
coordination.
Degradation of prior, robust, aviation cultures that
were previously enabled by geographic proximity.
Eco-design: The impact of an aircraft on the environment is generally considered as directly
linked to its intensity of operation. A more global and accurate approach to evaluate this impact
must take also into consideration the total aircraft life cycle. The product life cycle can be split
within three distinctive phases: aircraft design & production, aircraft use & maintenance, aircraft
withdrawal. For each phase, there is a need to limit the quantity of natural resources (material,
energy, water...), to use harmless materials and find non-polluting substitutes and finally to
design an aircraft in a global perspective that addresses its dismantling and recycling.
http://www.cleansky.eu/content/page/eco-design
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airline_alliance
Virgin Australia to consider global alliances from 2012; http://www.aviationbrief.com/?p=1983
1.
2.
Indirect or unclear lines of authority leading to
confusion as to who is ultimately responsible for
monitoring safety and implementing needed
improvements
Hazards associated with bureaucratization:
a. Delays in decision making
b. Poor communication among levels
c. Funding allocations
d. Opaque visibility of operational
issues at higher levels of the
organization
The transportation industry is changing
significantly in form and function that
the very important changes in the way it
is organized and managed tends to be
overlook. Yet it is through different
management practices that the spatial
manifestations of the industry are
expressed. It is perhaps easiest to see
the changes in management through
the lens of governance, where an
industry that used to be largely
managed and controlled by the public
sector, has become increasingly
controlled by the private sector.
Page 30 of 110
The Impact On Strategic Marketing Approach On Quality Of Service In The Airline Industry
Written by AcademicWritingTips.org
The Impacts of Globalisation on International Air Transport
Activity - Past trends and future perspectives – November 2008;
http://www.oecd.org/zgrowth/greening-transport/41373470.pdf
Issues and Challenges in Transport Geography
Authors: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dr. Claude Comtois and Dr. Brian Slack;
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/conclusion.html
ICAO 2013 Safety Report;
http://www.icao.int/safety/Documents/ICAO_2013-Safety-Report_FINAL.pdf
73
OR
G
AN
S
73. Increasing
complexities within
future air
transportation
systems
There is concern that the complexity of
a system of systems will exceed our
ability to truly understand its
characteristics and mitigate safety
problems produced by the complexity
itself. The civil aviation infrastructure is
extraordinarily dependent on computertelecommunications information
systems. Some of the most prominent
and widely used systems include those
for air traffic control, navigation,
reservations, and aircraft flight control.
Increasingly, these information systems
have become critical to the spectrum of
activities in aviation.
Because of the complex interactions
between economic, political,
sociological, and technological forces in
the air transportation system, it has
been extremely difficult to predict the
impact of new technologies or changes
in operational procedures on operations
and safety. Consequently, there is a
strong tendency within the system to
maintain the status quo, and new
technologies or operating procedures
have been limited to incremental
improvements. Predicting the impact of
technical or operational/procedural
changes on a comprehensive basis will
require improved methods and models
for evaluating the safety of potential
changes to the air transportation
system. As a basis for the development
of methods and models that encompass
the technical, procedural, and
socioeconomic complexity and
dynamism of the system, NASA,
industry, and the FAA should prepare a
formal [baseline] representation of
existing rules and procedures that
govern system operations.
Regulations intended to promote safety
can sometimes become barriers to
technological and procedural changes.
For example, many commuter aircraft
were designed as 19 passenger aircraft
simply because FAA safety regulations
require a flight attendant on aircraft
designed for 20 or more passengers.
This economic factor impacted aircraft
design decisions more than
performance or economic
improvements that may have been
possible from the development of
slightly larger aircraft.
Ongoing
1.
Interactions among various stakeholders are not
given adequate attention
2. Gaps and overlaps in organizational
responsibilities
3. Hardware failures
4. Ineffective human-machine interfaces
5. Organizational breakdown
6. Breakdown in communications among operators
7. Human confirmation biases
8. Failure to capture multiple interacting agents
across highly heterogeneous organizational levels
9. Nature of complex systems often leads designers
to withhold descriptions of system architectures
that front-line personnel may need to make sense
of the behavior they are observing.
10. Stove-piped safety analyses: Safety assessments
for ATM, airports, pilots, and controllers are
frequently handled using different approaches.
11. Human reliability assessments are often done in a
binary manner rather than in a more nuanced
fashion.
Description continued: Commercial aviation at the
beginning of the 21st century is a highly complex,
system of systems. It features airborne, ground, and
space-based technology systems, complex supply
chains, an enabling regulatory environment, operators
at many levels, and last but not least, a complex web of
operational procedures and training systems for
operators. The complex systems such as commercial
aviation possess the fundamental characteristics of
diversity, connectedness, interdependence, adaptation,
non-linearity, and emergent behavior (Dr. Scott Page of
the University of Michigan). Complex systems can be
good and bad. As a result of their distributed
architectures and redundancies, they can be
extraordinarily resilient. On the other hand, the
interdependent relationships and characteristics of
emergent behavior within complex systems can result
in undesired states that can propagate rapidly through
the system or create singular, spectacular tragic
events.
Page 31 of 110
Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Breakthrough Technologies to Meet Future Air and
Space Transportation Needs and Goals (1998); Air Transportation System Technology PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=6293&page=53
EU Aviation Safety and Certification of New Operations and Systems project (ASCOS)
http://www.ascos-project.eu/ Background:
Many innovative technologies and operational concepts are not developed for reasons of
implementation risk or too much time to reach implementation. Many operators and users are
eager to make use of new developments. To ease the introduction of safety enhancement
systems and operations, a innovative approach towards certification is required that:

Is more flexible with regard to the introduction of new products and operations;

Is more efficient, in terms of cost, time and safety, than the current certification processes;

Considers safety impact of all aviation system elements and the entire system life-cycle in
a complete integrated way.
Moving towards performance based regulation, based upon agreed safety performance in
combination with a risk based approach to standardization, is expected to lead to improvements
in the way that safety risks are controlled. Anticipating future risks by using a "proactive
approach" helps to make the certification process robust to new developments. Introducing
‘continuous safety monitoring’ ensures that new essential safety data is effectively used
immediately after it is available.
The objective of ASCOS is to develop innovative certification process adaptations and
supporting safety driven design methods and tools to ease the certification of safety
enhancement systems and operations while, at the same time, increasing safety. ASCOS aims
to better account for the human element, already from the early stages of the certification
process, and thus reducing consequences of human error and increasing safety. The project will
follow a total system approach, dealing with all aviation system elements in an integrated way
over the complete life-cycle.
ASCOS coordinated with the SAE S-18 Airplane Safety Assessment Committee and the
EUROCAE Working Group 63 "Complex aircraft systems" in Rome, Italy, on 17 October 2012.
78
OP
AN
S
78. Increasing size
of maintenance,
ATM, and
operations
databases
The increasing availability and
improved quality of incident and
operation data may improve the
decision-making ability of risk
managers, but the new data
environment requires new
methodologies, processes, and tools.
Many airlines and authorities have
found that computer-aided scanning
and analysis of FDR data on a routine
basis to be a powerful safety tool by
identifying exceedances, atypical flight
signatures or reduced margins and
assisting the safety risk managers
(domain experts and field practitioners)
in understanding the causes. The
changing data environment may also
bring new issues to light.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
Risk managers becoming overwhelmed by data;
the information may be “hiding in plain sight"
Necessary data not reaching the appropriate
parties
Inaccurate maintenance data that is critical for
calculations such as weight/balance and fuel
loads
The following important characteristics for shared
databases may not be common among stakeholders
4. Parameter nomenclature, instrumentation
accuracy, recorder resolutions and sampling rates
5. Filtering and processing of the data, while
airborne and by the ground station
6. Data acquisition units across different aircraft fleet
7. Data sources for the same or similar parameters
8. Algorithms and techniques for deriving
parameters (Figure 3)
9. Event and incident definitions
10. Unit standards and conversion calculations
11. User operational environments
12. Safety and reporting cultures
13. Use and knowledge of statistical systems
14. Identification of which data should be shared;
maintain user definitions but develop a “translator”
for common data
15. Develop policies for sharing data; need to know,
confidentiality rules; establish data “owners”
16. Ensure data sharing has buy-in from ALL
participating groups
17. With all group representation, establish data flow;
who needs data from whom, when, how often.
2014 - Cognitive computing:: Artificial intelligence meets business intelligence
Big Data growth is accelerating as more of the world's activity is expressed digitally. Not only is
it increasing in volume, but also in speed, variety and uncertainty. Most data now comes in
unstructured forms such as video, images, symbols and natural language - a new computing
model is needed in order for businesses to process and make sense of it, and enhance and
extend the expertise of humans. Rather than being programmed to anticipate every possible
answer or action needed to perform a function or set of tasks, cognitive computing systems are
trained using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms to sense, predict, infer
and, in some ways, think.
Systems with domain expertise
Cognitive computing systems get better over time as they build knowledge and learn a domain
- its language and terminology, its processes and its preferred methods of interacting. Unlike
expert systems of the past which required rules to be hard coded into a system by a human
expert, cognitive computers can process natural language and unstructured data and learn by
experience, much in the same way humans do. While they'll have deep domain expertise,
instead of replacing human experts, cognitive computers will act as a decision support system
and help them make better decisions based on the best available data, whether in healthcare,
finance or customer service.
Cognitive systems will require innovation breakthroughs at every layer of information
technology, starting with nanotechnology and progressing through computing systems design,
information management, programming and machine learning, and, finally, the interfaces
between machines and humans. Advances on this scale will require remarkable efforts and
collaboration, calling forth the best minds—and the combined resources–of academia,
government and industry.
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/agi/reports/media/Report%20to%20C
ongress%20on%20ASAP%20and%20FOQA.pdf - January 2012
Aviation Maintenance Software Tools; http://www.capterra.com/aviation-maintenance-software
Mid-term NextGen Operational Improvement 109304 - Enhanced Safety Information Analysis
and Sharing;
https://nasea.faa.gov/products/oi/main/display/95
AIRLINE FLIGHT DATA ANALYSIS (FDA) - THE NEXT GENERATION’
Michael R. Poole, P.Eng., Managing Partner, Flightscape, SASI Member M03278, David
Mawdsley, CEng, FRAeS, Director – Safety, Safety, Operations & Infrastructure, IATA
This is an excellent issue; one that may be exacerbated by good intentions (i.e., collecting
incident data is good but can increase the difficulty of effective data management.
Large databases may not be “hazards” per se; that is they do not “cause” harm. However,
ineffective data management may be a “barrier” to preventing hazards.
The characteristics of maintenance (and other relevant aviation databases should be categorized
similar to the following
(1) Organizational pre-requisites (9, 11, 12, 13, 14), must be established first
(2) Standard definitions and metrics (1, 4, 6, 7, 10), established to collect “good’ data
(3) Ability to collect good data (technical) (2, 3, 4), established to overcome technical issues
(4) Ability to collect good data (operational) (2, 3, 4, 8), established to overcome operational
issues
(5) Ability to analyze data (reliable and valid) (1, 5, 10), established to get best use of data
Without (1) and (2), it may not be worth solving (3), (4) & (5)
The information management issue is even more problematic considering data may be coming
from organizations that have merged (different definitions/standards), and from 3rd party repair
stations.
Page 32 of 110
Maintenance tracking systems, while strongly recommended and which are a prudent
investment, do not supplant an actual log book. “Even though the price for one of the more
widely used computerized maintenance tracking systems costs in the range of $10,000 to
$15,000 per year for a Falcon 900, as an example, it will be difficult to maintain a modern aircraft
of that type without a system such as that. But, while it serves as a valuable adjunct and provides
helpful validation, no system, regardless of cost or capability, replaces or supersedes an
80
OR
G
80. Reduction in
numbers of
aviation personnel
familiar with
previous
generation
technology and
practices
In recent times there has been a
reduction in the availability of qualified
individuals to provide operational
management, mentoring and oversight
in the charter and low capacity regular
public transport sector due to airline
recruitment. (see item B)
The availability of skilled, resourceful
and experienced individuals to
undertake the roles of safety manager,
check and training, chief pilots,
instructors and business managers is
also in short supply.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Given the decades of relative stability in
the airline sector prior to 2001, the
industry is not well supplied with
managers at middle and senior level
who have had experience in managing
risks associated with considerable
change.
Indicators are emerging that general
aviation and the low to medium capacity
regular public transport and charter
sectors of passenger transport are
increasingly affected by a growing
shortage of experienced and skilled
personnel in all categories including
maintenance (item C).
Many of the major regulators in Europe
are desperately short of operations
inspectors, and the government budget
austerity measures being taken across
Europe will likely take the situation from
desperate to dangerous.
6.
7.
Loss of design, operational, and maintenance
knowledge
Knowledge of why aircraft are designed as such,
how key maintenance is to be performed, and
why the operational rules are as they are not
being retained by individual or organizational
memory. Contributing factors include
a. long product design cycle times
b. extended product life
c. increasing staff turn over.
Difficult to access legacy data storage systems
Inability of some operators to attract and retain
senior people to mentor, guide and direct the less
experienced and maintain safety systems
Wholesale retirements within the current
generation of aviation professionals
Shortage of qualified inspectors and flight
examiners
The loss of experience, safety culture, and tribal
knowledge may be a bigger issue than overwork
and fatigue.
The longevity of aircraft designs requires access to
design records that may only exist in hardcopy or
software archives that are not compatible with modern
data access software. Identification of safety-sensitive
information within difficult to access legacy data
storage systems will remain a significant challenge.
There is a risk of complacency in that operational
practices and safety analyses may be blindly pursued
without validating original design assumptions. Frontline staff may not be familiar with the historic rationale
behind an SOP requirement
In order to continue operating and meeting the demand airlines may respond by hiring less
experienced personnel (changing the characteristics of the operational task), and giving rise to a
number of potential safety risks.
B. Canadian report from Michael.
C. Maintenance Personnel Challenges, MRO Europe September 2010, Hank Schaeffer
Manager, MT Regulatory Approvals and Standards, The Boeing Company Training and Flight
Services
Organizations with robust systems in place to oversight and mentor less experienced employees
may well be able to manage threats to the integrity and safety of operations. Yet in recent times
there has been a reduction in the availability of experienced individuals to provide operational
management, mentoring and oversight in the charter and low capacity regular public transport
sector due to airline recruitment.
ISBN—978-1-921475-056-4
When looking at the overall funding and staffing levels among European CAAs, it’s not unusual
to find that within the vital inspector category staffing levels are only at 20 to 30 percent of what
is required.
Austerity and Denial Op Ed piece by William R. Voss, President and CEO, Flight Safety
Foundation, http://flightsafety.org/aerosafety-world-magazine/october-2011/austerity-and-denial,
AEROSAFETYWORLD, October 2011
January 20, 2012 - Top FAA execs lack institutional knowledge, says official; agency must be
prepared for cuts; Turnover of top executives at the Federal Aviation Administration has led to a
lack of institutional knowledge at the agency, said Toni Trombecky, a 31 year veteran of the
agency serving out her final months there. "It's not that they're making bad decisions--they're
making uninformed decisions, because they don't have all the information that previous
executives had," said Trombecky, while speaking Jan. 20 at an event hosted by the Association
of Government Accountants, in Washington, D.C. Trombecky, the manager of FAA strategic
planning.
http://www.fiercegovernmentit.com/story/top-faa-execs-lack-institutional-knowledge-says-officialagency-must-be-pre/2012-01-22
Monitor the number of users of http://accidents-ll.faa.gov/ll_site_map.cfm
Page 33 of 110
82
AN
S
OP,
AU
82. Technologies
and procedures
enabling reduced
separation
In order to provide increased utilization
of the airspace, separation standards
may decrease between runways,
between aircraft, between landing
operations, and for vertical separation.
Flight-deck Interval Management
occurs when the responsibility for
separation assurance is delegated to
the flight deck from the air traffic
controller. The initial phase of this
change may be that the flight-deck is
responsible for Point-in-Space
Metering, such as Arrival Interval
Management. Point-in-Space Metering
uses scheduling tools to ensure smooth
flow of traffic and efficient use of
airspace. Pilots are assigned a specific
trajectory and scheduled times to reach
specific points on the assigned
trajectory. This may be expanded to
departure and surface choke points
later.
Delegated Responsibility for In-Trail
Separation would allow pilots, when
authorized by the controller, to maintain
safe separation using Cockpit Display
of Traffic Information (CDTI) and
Automatic Dependent Surveillance –
Broadcast (ADS-B). The CDTI provides
a cockpit display of surrounding aircraft
and guidance information to assure
safe separation. Improvements
supporting this change are the En
Route Automation Modernization
(ERAM) Mid-Term Work Package and
implementation of ADS-B.
For mixed operations such as
conventional departures and RNAV Offthe-Ground, current separation
standards may need to be modified.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Uncertain availability of technologies and procedures
enabling reduced separation especially space-based
navigation/timing assets.
Uncoordinated ground flow control and
departure/approach flows due to separation of functions.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: As departing aircraft
taxi to runway, ground controller overly relies on
observing automation to monitor conformance.
Associated human performance hazard: Ground
Controller fails to issue corrective instruction to resolve
conflict because of lack of alert from surface automation.
Ground controller is overly reliant on conformance alert.
ASDE-X (based on transponder codes) is not currently
used for ground separation purposes.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Departing aircraft
deviates from issued taxi route. Surface automation
provides conformance alerts and is overly sensitive with
a high rate of nuisance alerts. Associated human
performance hazard: Ground Controller ignores accurate
conformance alert and fails to issue corrective
instructions for a true alert.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Arriving aircraft
deviates from control instructions. Controller performs
conformance monitoring with assistance from
automation. Automation is overly sensitive with a high
rate of nuisance alerts. Associated human performance
hazard: Controller ignores accurate conformance alert
and fails to issue corrective instructions for a true alert.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Automation identifies
candidates for delegated spacing. Associated human
performance hazard: Automation identifies incorrect
candidate.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Automation used to
sequence aircraft. Associated human performance
hazard: Controller fails to notice flaw in automation
sequence.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Pilots establish
linkage with paired aircraft. Associated human
performance hazard: Pilot fails to establish linkage. Pilot
establishes linkage with incorrect aircraft.
Failure or lack of available backup systems
Failure of systems in in-trail aircraft to detect and warn of
high-strength wake vortices
Inaccurate modeling of wake location and strength
Unrecoverable aircraft upset
Airborne Spacing - Flight Deck Interval Management (ASPA-FIM)
http://adsb.tc.faa.gov/WG6_Meetings/Meeting%2025/WG6-WP25-13Draft%20of%20FIM%20description%20for%20MASPS.pdf
ADS-B In 'Not Likely' by 2020, FAA IG Says
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/topstories/ADS-B-In-Not-Likely-by-2020-IGSays_81194.html#.UvFphKU410x
A REDUCED AIRCRAFT SEPARATION RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL
Roger Shepherd, Rick Cassell, Rajeev Thapa, Derrick Lee
Rannoch Corporation, 1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 430, Alexandria, VA 22314
http://sepiawave.com/documents/white-papers/Reduced-Aircraft-Separation-Risk-WhitePaper.pdf
https://www2.hf.faa.gov/HFPortalNew/Admin/FAAAJP61/NextGen%20Interim%20Human%20Ha
zard%20Assessment%20-%20TASC%202.pdf
Reduced Horizontal Separation Minima (RHSM) Concept Exploration Simulation
Elizabeth Elkan, ACT-540 Parimal Kopardekar, Ph.D., SRC David Stahl, SRC
http://www.tc.faa.gov/acb300/techreports/TN973.pdf
IFATCA Vision Document (Towards the 21st Century)
http://www.chapterpdf.com/ifatca-vision-document.pdf
Current separation standards are based
on independent (>4300 ft. runway
separation) or dependent
(2500>runway separation>4300 ft.)
approach flows.
The hope is that RNP approaches will
be so accurate that separation
standards can be safety reduced.
Radius-to-Fixed turn legs must be flown
by the automation.
June 2013 FAA NextGen Implementation Plan:
As of February 2013, the FAA had installed 445 operational ADS-B ground stations. These will
provide separation services at 28 Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) facilities.
The FAA will take advantage of increased surveillance and navigation accuracy, as well as an
improved understanding of wake vortices, to allow aircraft to operate simultaneously, either
independently or with reduced separation, on closely spaced parallel runways. Key near-term
schedule dates for Aircraft Operator Enablers:
Performance Based Navigation (PBN)

2014 - Advanced RNP, RNP 0.3, RNP 2

2015 – Trajectory Operations Navigation

2018 – Alternative Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
ADS-B Capabilities:

2015 - Interval Management ADS-B In

2014 - Traffic Situational Awareness and Alerting

2017 - Closely Spaced Parallel Operations

2017 - Advanced Flight Deck Interval Management (FDIM) utilizing ADS-B In
Data Communications:

2015 - Aeronautical Telecommunication Network Baseline 2
Low Visibility Operations

2014 – Enhanced Flight Vision System (EFVS)

2016 – Ground Based Augmentation System Landing System III
Flight Deck Enhancements:

2015 – Flight Information Service Broadcast
European Study on Reduced Separation Minima –RESET (2009)
http://reset.aena.es/start/frames.html
Page 34 of 110
86
AN
S
OP
86. Evolution in the
type and quantity
of information
used by ATM
personnel
ATM personnel will be increasingly
required to monitor aircraft trajectory
conformance. However, most ATC
facilities will require new displays for
presentation of these data.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
For example, besides the HMIs, TFDM
prototypes also include a variety of
decision support tools (DST) that
establish runway assignments;
departure metering, sequencing, and
scheduling; airport configuration; and
departure routing.
5.
Errors due to lack of effective information
integration and monitoring
Unintended uses of new ATC information systems
Failure to trust modern ATC information systems
Failure of current facility displays to support
information generated by systems such as ADS-B
– incompatible developmental timelines
Multiple operational modes available in ATC
hardware leading to loss of awareness of the
system status and mode confusion or distraction
2014 – A-CDM is a tool that allows for real time sharing of operational data and information
between the stakeholders using an airport, thus creating "common situational awareness". This
in turn improves interaction between airport operators, air traffic control and airlines on the
ground, allowing for a more optimized use of scarce airport capacity. A-CDM is also an important
baseline for the deployment of SESAR¹.
Airports where A-CDM has been fully implemented now include Munich, Brussels, Paris-Charles
de Gaulle, Frankfurt, London-Heathrow, Helsinki-Vantaa and most recently, Düsseldorf and
Switzerland's primary hub, Zurich. A-CDM deployment is being facilitated by the Network
Manager, with a target of 20 major airports by the end of 2014. Collectively, these airports
welcome over 250 million passengers a year and their efforts have yielded significant benefits for
airlines and passengers.
Human-Systems Integration and Air Traffic Control - Hayley J. Davison Reynolds, Kiran
Lokhande, Maria Kuffner, and Sarah Yenson – Lincoln Labs
http://www.ll.mit.edu/publications/journal/pdf/vol19_no1/19_1_2_Reynolds.pdf
THE EVENT ADVISORY MONITOR SYSTEM: A TOOL FOR MONITORING TRAFFIC-FLOW
CONSTRAINTS
Paul Mafera and Kip Smith Kansas State University Manhattan, Kansas
Whole Airspace ATM System Safety Case - Preliminary Study
A report produced for EUROCONTROL by AEA Technology
Steve Kinnersly
87
AN
S
OP
87. Changing
design,
operational, and
maintenance
expertise involving
air navigation
system (ANS)
equipment
The underlying knowledge of why ANS
systems are designed as such, how key
maintenance is to be performed, and
why resulting ATC operational rules are
as they are is being lost. Contributing
factors include:

long design cycle times

extended hardware life

failure to document and archive
design data, initial specifications,
test data, and lessons learned.
An adequate number of skilled people
are required to maintain expertise.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Wholesale retirements in the current generation of
aviation professionals
Aviation professions not attractive enough to
potential candidates
Competition with other industry sectors for skilled
employees
Training capacity insufficient to meet demand
Learning methodologies not responsive to new
evolving learning style
Lack of access to affordable training
Lack of harmonization of competencies in some
aviation disciplines
and fatigue.
Page 35 of 110
2014 – Emirates Airways delivering air traffic control training to up to 200 students per year at
the College's new purpose-built campus in Dubai over the next five years. Vice Chancellor of
Emirates Aviation College, Dr. Ahmad al Ali, said that the partnership fills a critical gap in the
Middle East region for the training for air traffic controllers. "There is a global shortage of air
traffic controllers, which has serious repercussions for the aviation industry - particularly in this
part of the world where air traffic is expected to continue growing. This new joint venture allows
us to capitalize on Airways' 20 years of experience in training controllers around the world, and to
provide a highly-specialized resource that our industry so desperately needs for future
development," said Dr. Ahmad al Ali.
http://icaopressroom.wordpress.com/2010/03/09/icao-addresses-shortage-of-skilled-aviationprofessionals/
89
AN
S
T
89. Increasing
heterogeneity of
hardware and
software within the
ANS system
ATM systems are large, very complex
and have long life cycles. During their
life cycle, ATMs need to undergo
frequent upgrades and changes. While
some ATM sites use modern hardware
and software technology, others rely on
older heterogeneous connections of
different computers.
These systems may be from different
manufacturers or belong to a
completely different computer system
generation. They often run different
versions of an operating system or a
different operating system altogether.
During an ATM life cycle, it was often
more economic to add new functionality
to an existing computer system rather
than totally replace or upgrade the
existing system. Usually these
enhancements were implemented using
new add-on technology or better-suited
equipment that differed from the base
system, e.g. high-performance
networks and storage subsystems. This
upgrade methodology inherently led to
the wide variety of heterogeneous
systems.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
Proliferation of new ANS technologies along side
legacy systems may complicate maintenance,
preclude software reuse, increase training
requirements, and increase the potential for
human error
Lack of a unifying technical architecture
Different or incompatible communication
protocols/data formats, and user interfaces
Support of many older systems is not being
provided at the OEM level
Page 36 of 110
Whole Airspace ATM System Safety Case - Preliminary Study
A report produced for EUROCONTROL by AEA Technology, Steve Kinnersly
http://www.ccur.com/Libraries/docs_pdf/Linux_for_ATM_FINAL.pdf
http://www.jpdo.gov/library/nextgen_business_case_ver_1.pdf
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/airlines-international/april-2011/pages/atm.aspx
93
AN
S
SP
AC
E, T
93. Increasing
reliance on
satellite-based
systems for
Communications,
Navigations, and
Surveillance (CNS)
Air Traffic
Management
functions
Future air navigation systems will
feature international agreement on a
plan for more efficient communication,
navigation, surveillance and air traffic
management (CNS/ATM), based
heavily on satellite technology. The
more dependent the global air
transportation system becomes on
GPS, the more vulnerable it is to
disruptions in access to its signals.
Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) In and Out is an
essential capability within NextGen
implementation plans. It is also
featured in SESAR. GNSS and GPS
services are essential for full ADS-B
capabilities.
Combined capabilities, parallel
functionalities (Galileo & GPS), and
special frequencies resistant to
jamming spoofing available within multimode receivers may be quite robust.
(see RTCA documents)
Planned ADS-B coverage includes only
those areas currently covered by radar.
There are large regions of the airspace
where there is no radar coverage.
ADS-B broadcasts are unencrypted and
possibly vulnerable. (evidence, RTCA?)
Near
1.
Changes to existing procedures in certain non-normal
conditions to maintain adequate safety margins
2.
Exclusive reliance on single CNS technologies.
3.
Jamming: Intentional interference or jamming, i.e.
emission of sufficiently powerful radio frequency energy.
This is either realized as emission of a signal close to the
GPS spectrum or if more sophisticated as emission of a
GPS-like signal. Civil receivers are vulnerable.
4.
Spoofing: Is the intended injection of false GPS like
signal. The receiver will lock onto a legitimate appearing
signal.
5.
Failure of CNS systems to communicate changes arising
from dynamically reconfigured airspace
6.
Crippling effects of Coronal Mass Ejections (solar
weather) on satellite electronics and ground
infrastructure
7.
Impact of man-made space debris
8.
Degradation of radio/satellite communication: During
solar events, some disturbance may happen on HF and
satellite communications, which would have side effects
on CPDLC, ADS-C, AOC…. However, line of sight VHF
communication may not be impacted.
9.
Onboard system failure due to radiation: During a
radiation storm, when striking a sensitive node, radiation
may induce shortcuts, change of state, or burnout in
onboard electronic devices. This phenomenon is called
the “single event effect”. Its impact may vary a lot from
unnoticeable to a complete failure of the system. This
kind of failure may become more frequent in the future
because modern electronic equipment is more vulnerable
to radiation due to the smaller size of their devices.
10. Radiation doses: During radiation storms, unusually high
levels of ionizing radiation may lead to an excessive
radiation dose for air travellers and crew. The dose
received by passengers and crew is higher at higher
altitudes and latitudes.
11. GNSS based aviation operation: High-energy particles
ejected by the sun may cause strong disturbances in the
upper layers of the atmosphere, mainly in the layer called
the Ionosphere. This layer is composed of charged
particles and is particularly sensitive to the particles
ejected by the sun. The GNSS radio signals emitted by
satellites have to travel through this particular layer and,
under severe disturbance, are strongly affected. As a
result, unexpected position and timing errors[1] can occur
at the level of the user receiver. In extreme cases, the
GNSS[2] receiver can lose reception of the satellite
altogether and the position can no longer be computed.
As a side effect, GNSS-based surveillance applications
may be unavailable. SBAS or GBAS augmented
services, used for approach and landing, are more
demanding in terms of accuracy and integrity than the En
Route/TMA GNSS-based navigation. As a consequence,
the safety monitors of those systems are also more
sensitive to space weather events and the unavailability
of these services would be more frequent.
Page 37 of 110
April 3, 2014 – The U.S. Air Force is set to start early implementation of the long-anticipated
GPS Civil Navigation (CNAV) message at the end of this month, and will use the process to help
develop new countermeasures against spoofing.
The GPS satellites will begin the early broadcast of more accurate navigation messages on the
new civil L2C and L5 signals, mainly to aid development of compatible user equipment and
CNAV operational procedures. However, according to the Air Force, an element of the preimplementation phase will evaluate new ways to protect against the growing threat of spoofing, in
which vehicles can be put off course by counterfeit signals. Spoofing is a more insidious threat
than jamming because users are not aware that their navigation system is being misled.
The development of spoofing countermeasures is viewed as increasingly vital because of the
“safety of life” applications at which the L5 signal is aimed. L5 is the third civilian GPS signal, and
will be broadcast in a radio band reserved exclusively for aviation safety services. In the future,
aircraft will use L5 in combination with L1 C/A to improve both accuracy and signal redundancy.
L2C is the second civilian GPS signal, and when combined in a dual-frequency receiver with the
legacy L1 C/A civil signal, enables ionospheric correction that will improve accuracy. The signal
broadcasts at a higher effective power than L1 C/A, which will make it easier to receive in areas
where reception can be poor, such as under trees or indoors.
GPS Integrity and Potential Impact on Aviation Safety, Washington Y. Ochieng and Knut Sauer
(Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine), David Walsh and Gary Brodin
(University of Leeds) Steve Griffin and Mark Denney (The Civil Aviation Authority)
THE JOURNAL OF NAVIGATION (2003), 56, 51–65. The Royal Institute of Navigation
DOI: 10.1017/S0373463302002096
CNS/ATM SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE CONCEPTS AND FUTURE VISION OF NAS
OPERATIONS IN 2020 TIMEFRAME, Dr. Satish C. Mohleji, Andrew R. Lacher and Paul A.
Ostwald, Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) The MITRE Corporation,
7515 Colshire Drive, McLean, VA 22102
http://inavsoft.com/pdf/rinpaper.pdf
Solar Storms/HEMP - From Critical Infrastructure to Business Continuity: The US Needs More
Than Talking Points, Mike Cheston, Seraph, Inc., 401-524-2787, www.seraphinc.us, presented
at JPDO Safety Working Group meeting, January 2012
Impact of Space Weather on Aviation,
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Impact_of_Space_Weather_on_Aviation?utm_source=SKYb
rary&utm_campaign=13dc8a2c74-SKYbrary_Highlight_25_06_2012&utm_medium=email
Special Report: Ultra Wideband: Killer App or App Killer?
An intriguing wireless digital technology offers to redefine how spectrum is used, but could its
interference cripple other spectrum users?
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/military/Special-Report-Ultra-Wideband-Killer-App-or-AppKiller_12557.html
UWB emissions will negatively impact GPS and FAA radar, and possibly other vital services.
Tests and calculations reveal the deleterious impact UWB will have on restricted band users.
GPS operates at a very low margin above the thermal noise floor and is very susceptible to UWB
impulses upsetting its moderate bandwidth raw data. That is a very serious problem. The
proliferation of UWB systems will compromise the functionality of the Global Positioning System.
ASRS Database Report Set Global Positioning System (GPS) Reports: a sampling of reports
referencing use of Global Positioning System (GPS) devices;
http://asrs.arc.nasa.gov/docs/rpsts/gps.pdf
May 6, 2013 - FAA Selects FreeFlight for Capstone ADS-B Project
FAA has selected FreeFlight Systems to provide upgraded automatic dependent surveillancebroadcast (ADS-B) avionics to fulfill the requirements of the second phase of its Capstone
Project. The project was originally launched in 1999 as a joint government-industry research and
development effort to improve air traffic safety in Alaska, where aircraft are constantly flying in
airspace beyond radar coverage. The avionics provide terrain, weather and traffic data for pilots
on cockpit displays, and resulted in a 57 percent reduction in the number of aviation accidents in
Alaska over a 12-year period, according to FreeFlight. The program was also meant to provide a
model for the agency's nationwide deployment of ADS-B, a fundamental equipage component of
NextGen.
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/topstories/79178.html#.UYvXxOAbReU
95
96
AN
S
AN
S
OP
95. Changing
approaches to ATM
warning and alert
systems
T,
AP
96. Increasing
interactions
between highlyautomated groundbased and aircraftbased systems
Advanced audio, tactile, and visual
warning systems in ATM environments
may change controller workload and
situational awareness.
Near
2.
Currently, ATM working environments
are enhanced by many warning
systems in an effort to improve and
enhance safety and efficiency. As
warning and alerting systems become
more advanced, controller reliance on
such systems may result in airspace
that is unmanageable without such
systems. Traffic management and
separation decisions that are made with
a combination of warning systems and
human controllers may become totally
automated, resulting in a loss of
efficiency when the systems are down.
As all systems become more complex
there will be an increasing level of
interaction between ground-based and
aircraft-based systems. “The increased
use of automation to enable NextGen
creates a significant technical risk in
system complexity. Ultimate success of
NextGen will depend on development of
new verification and validation methods
to demonstrate safety of complex
interdependent systems. Achieving
NextGen involves a quantum leap from
the complex flight decks of today to
dependent, multi-aircraft operations that
relay on extensive interactions between
advanced automation systems and
humans in aircraft and on the ground.
These interactions will involve both
piloted aircraft and UAS.” - Next
Generation Air Transportation System,
Human Factors Research Status
Report
1.
3.
4.
5.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Proliferation of caution and warning systems and
alerts may overwhelm the controllers in periods of
heavy workload.
Failure to prioritize alerts prior to implementation
of such systems.
Operational Errors (LOSS?): An occurrence
attributable to an element of the air traffic control
system in which:
a. Less than the applicable
separation minima results between
two or more aircraft, or between an
aircraft and terrain or obstacles; or
b. An aircraft lands or departs on a
runway closed to aircraft
operations
Descent below minimum descent altitude
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Conformance
Monitor generates excessive false / nuisance
alerts. Associated human performance hazards:
a. Controller ignores accurate
conformance alert and fails to
issue corrective instructions for a
true alert.
b. Controller becomes overly reliant
on automation, fails to notice
deviation when not alerted.
c. Controller fails to confirm validity of
conformance alert.
Potential incompatibilities that could affect safety
Unclear delegation of separation responsibility to
aircraft
Variation in design cycle times
Lack of coordinated development of the safety
case arising from uncoordinated implementation
schedules between airborne systems and groundbased systems
Lack of synchronization between aircraft and
ground databases such as terrain and airspace
boundaries and time signals
Failure of procedures and hardware to
synchronize flight plans in aircraft avionics and
those in ground systems during turnaround at the
gate
Page 38 of 110
Concept for Next Generation Air Traffic Control System
Heinz Erzberger and Russell A. Paielli
A Review of Conflict Detection and Resolution Modeling Methods
James K. Kuchar and Lee C. Yang Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA
02139 USA
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vol. 1, No. 4, December 2000, pp.
179-189.
White Paper on Multiple Independent Alerting Systems
James K. Kuchar, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, Cambridge, MA, July 13, 1998
http://www.sita.aero/file/2951/New_generation_cockpit_IT_integration_position_paper.pdf
http://download.intel.com/research/share/UAI03_workshop/Kipersztok/UAI-KipersztokO.doc
Next Generation Air Transportation System, Human Factors Research Status Report, May 1,
2012; http://www.jpdo.gov/library/2012_Human_Factors_Research_Status_v2.0.pdf
97
AN
S
T
97. Introduction of
artificial
intelligence in ATM
systems
Future ATM tools may achieve
enhanced functionality using software
intelligent agents or adaptive
automation. The characteristics of
these agents can differ significantly
from most software tools in use today.
They may be very complex in function,
and may include intent and reasoning
systems not well understood by the
controller. They may approach a semiautonomous status in the eyes of those
interacting with them. They may have
unique, unfamiliar, and unanticipated
characteristics and interfaces.
Many safety-related and critical
systems warn of potentially dangerous
events; for example the Short Term
Conflict Alert (STCA) system warns of
airspace infractions between aircraft.
Although installed with current
technology such critical systems may
become out of date due to changes in
the circumstances in which they
function, operational procedures and
the regulatory environment. The User
Request Evaluation Toll (URET) utilizes
flight plan data, forecast winds, aircraft
performance characteristics, and track
data to derive expected aircraft
trajectories. URET then predicts
conflict between aircraft and between
aircraft and special use or designate
airspace. It can provide the controller
with a tool to test potential amendments
to an aircraft’s route and/or altitude prior
to issuance by the controller.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
Potential for controller error if these systems are
given limited control of ATM functions such as
separation assurance independent of the human.
Actual or potential loss of separation where alerts
and additional warning times are inadequate due
to computational delay.
Garbling is sometimes seen in non-Mode S radars
when the oblique distances between each aircraft
and the respective radars are very similar. Labels
for the one aircraft can temporarily disappearing
from the radar screen and be replaced by two
labels, one showing the correct flight level of the
aircraft and another showing a different level.
Similarities in the distance between two close
aircraft and the radar can result in an overlap
occurring in the reply received by the radars from
the aircraft, resulting in new tracks appearing on
the screen and in the label for one aircraft splitting
from the corresponding aircraft symbol.
The problem with autonomous vehicles is not just that
they’re incredibly advanced pieces of hardware, or that
they have to operate in the chaotic environment of the
streets, they also have to interact with the driver. That
wouldn't be much of an issue if it involved a switch that
you flip between manual and automatic, but
Volkswagen points out that autonomous driving
involves several possible stages, plus the swap over
point between mainly manual drive and mainly
automatic drive. These vary from low-speed chores,
such as parking assist, to taking over full control while
driving at high speed on the motorway. According to
Volkswagen, the simplest and currently the most widely
used stage is assisted driving. This is where the driver
retains permanent control over the car with the
automated system helping for tasks such as parking or
reversing. The next level up is the partly automated
stage, where the system monitors the driver and takes
over only when needed, such as applying brakes when
a pedestrian steps into the road, or preventing a
dangerous lane change. In the highly automated stage,
the system takes over the actual driving, but the driver
still has to remain alert because he has to be ready to
reclaim control when requested. Then there’s the
highest stage, which it fully automated. In this, the
system drives the car and if the driver fails to retake
control when requested, the system carries on by itself.
Page 39 of 110
November 2013 - Testing Innovative Autopilot on F/A-18 Jet for NASA's Space Launch System.
For NASA, this is the first application of an adaptive control concept to launch vehicles, adding
the ability for an autonomous flight computer system to retune itself -- within limits -- while it's
flying the rocket. The system, called the Adaptive Augmenting Controller, learns and responds
to unexpected differences in the actual flight versus preflight predictions. This ability to react to
unknown scenarios that might occur during flight and make real-time adjustments to the
autopilot system provides system performance and flexibility, as well as increased safety for
the crew.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/news/releases/2013/13-123.html#.Ux9DhqU410w
Jan, 2011 - Mahadevan, Nagabhushan, Abhishek, Dubey and Karsai, Gabor, A Case Study On
The Application of Software Health Management Techniques, TECHNICAL REPORT, SIS-11101
Self-adaptive systems, while in operation, must be able to adapt to latent faults in their
implementation, in the computing and non-computing hardware; even if they appear
simultaneously. Software Health Management (SHM) is a systematic extension of classical
software fault tolerance techniques that aims at implementing the vision of self-adaptive
software using techniques borrowed from system health management. SHM is predicated on
the assumptions that (1) specifications for nominal behavior are available for a system, (2) a
monitoring system can be automatically constructed from these specifications that detects
anomalies, (3) a systematic design method and a generic architecture can be used to engineer
systems that implement SHM. The verification of such adaptive systems is a major challenge
for the research community
Gosling, G.D. & Hockaday, S.L.M. (1984). Identification and Assessment of Artificial Intelligence
Techniques in Air Traffic Control (Research Report UCB-ITS-RR-84-14). Institute for
Transportation Studies, University of California: Berkeley, California.
D.A. Spencer, Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Air Traffic Control Automation (1989)
Fieldsend, J. E. and Everson, R. M. (2004). ROC Optimisation of Safety Related Systems.
Proceedings of ROCAI 2004, part of the 16th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence,
22nd August, Valencia, pages 37–44; http://www.dcs.ex.ac.uk/people/jefields/JF_17.pdf
B752/B752, en route, north of Tenerife Spain 2011 (Loss of Separation Human Factors)
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/B752/B752,_en_route,_north_of_Tenerife_Spain_2011_%28
LOS_HF%29?utm_source=SKYbrary&utm_campaign=adbdbffac3SKYbrary_Highlight_04_07_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e405169b04-adbdbffac3276463842
99
OP
AN
S,
MR
O
99. Increasing
dependence on inflight electronic
databases
Larger GPS, digital terrain elevation
data, and ground obstacle databases
will be incorporated into future FMS and
airport moving map displays. The
integrity of the computerized navigation
and performance systems rests on the
quality of the FMC/FMGS databases.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
Reduced ability to cross-check information
Failure of process to upload current databases
during pre-flight
Potential for entering incorrect data through the
FMC/FMGS
Cyber attack
Page 40 of 110
NextGen Avionics Roadmap, Version 2.0, Joint Planning and Development Office, September
30, 2011, http://www.jpdo.gov/library/20111005_ARM_complete_LowRes_v2.0.pdf
Database management: the heart of integrated avionics, Roth, M.A.; Ruberg, S.A.; Eldridge,
B.L.; Air Force Inst. of Technol., Wright-Patterson AFB, OH
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=290969&tag=1
100
OP
AN
S, T
100. Increasing
operations of
military and civilian
unmanned aerial
systems in shared
military, civilian,
and special use
airspace
Operations of military and civilian UAS
in shared military, civilian, and special
use airspace are on the increase due to
economic and political drivers. Until
recently, UAS mainly supported public
operations such as military and boarder
security functions. The list of potential
uses I snow rapidly expanding to
encompass a broad range of other
activities, including aerial photography,
surveying land and crops,
communications and broadcast,
monitoring forest fires and
environmental conditions, protecting
infrastructures, and novel commercial
applications such as delivery services.
These vehicles will in some cases
share airspace with commercial,
passenger aircraft.
UAS are physically shrinking in size and
becoming more heterogeneous as
missions and emerging technologies
evolve. UAS command and control
technologies are also permitting highly
self-coordinated and agile flight of
swarms (groups) of UAS that has
previously been impossible.
Cultural and technical differences
among evolving command and control
functions in the commercial UAS sector,
military UAS, and those used in
passenger-carrying commercial aviation
need to be evaluated from a safety and
operational perspective.
Civilian/military UAS operations will
need to be increasingly coordinated to
minimize compromising the safety of
commercial aviation.
Economic drivers as of March 2013*:
•
In the first three years following
integration into the NAS, more
than 70,000 new jobs will be
created;
•
In the first three years following
integration, the total economic
impact stemming from the
integration is projected to surpass
$13.6 billion and will grow
sustainably for the foreseeable
future, cumulating in more than
$82.1 billion in impact between
2015 and 2025. Economic impact
includes the monies that flow to
manufacturers and suppliers from
the sale of new products as well as
Mid
1.
Close-calls and mid-air collision between passenger
aircraft and UAS – loss of “see and avoid”
2.
Inadequate coordination between military and civilian
UAS in civilian airspace
3.
Inadequate failsafe UAS designs and operations
4.
Unmanned Aircraft loses control link and is not visible to
ground based automation/ANSP, Unmanned Aircraft is
executing the predetermined flight plan from the point it
lost link.
5.
Control link failure between UAS and ground station;
equipment failure; intentional takeover
6.
System latency: Time delay in telemetry update or lag in
aircraft response to PIC commands or guidance from
observer.
Hazards associated with possible use of TCAS for separation
assurance given that TCAS was developed as a last resort
airborne collision avoidance system:
7.
Failure of TCAS traffic display to provide necessary and
sufficient information to establish a complete and
accurate awareness of the traffic situation in the proximity
of the UAS for functions beyond cuing the pilot for
increased vigilance in visual acquisition and to prepare
the pilot for an impending RA.
8.
Information provided on the TCAS traffic display also
lacks supplemental information regarding its limitations
and inaccuracies for the pilot’s use when formulating
traffic situation awareness.
9.
TCAS display is subject to large discrepancies between
intruder locations as presented on the traffic display
versus their true locations.
10. TCAS display lacks the ability to project future states of
the intruder. Trajectory information must be estimated by
a pilot’s sampling of traffic trends on the display over
time.
11. In environments where transponding is not required non‐
transponding aircraft will not appear on the TCAS
display.
12. Information presented on the TCAS traffic display
provides inadequate information to establish awareness
of the traffic situation.
13. No mitigations could be identified which would reduce the
risk of performing a horizontal or vertical maneuver to an
acceptable level
14. Potential for misuse of the TCAS by a remote pilot
presents an unacceptable risk.
The TCAS system is not an alternate means of compliance,
nor is it a means of partial compliance, with 14 CFR 91.111
and 91.113 to see and avoid and to remain well clear of other
aircraft.
The State of Nevada research will include a concentrated look
at how air traffic control procedures will evolve with the
introduction of UAS into the civil environment and how these
aircraft will be integrated with NextGen. New York’s research
will focus on sense and avoid capabilities for UAS and its sites
will aid in researching the complexities of integrating UAS into
the congested, northeast airspace.
Page 41 of 110
December 18, 2013:

General Atomics tests UAV that can "sense and avoid" other aircraft; http://www.gizmag.com/uav-sense-avoidtest-general-atomics/30184/

Federal Aviation Administration is testing the safety of commercial drones
http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/science_tech/federal-aviation-administration-is-testing-the-safety-ofcommercial-drones#ixzz2nwg8xU5w
December 30, 2013 - FAA Selects Six Sites for Unmanned Aircraft Research: After a rigorous 10-month selection process
involving 25 proposals from 24 states, the Federal Aviation Administration has chosen six unmanned aircraft systems (UAS)
research and test site operators across the country.
In selecting the six test site operators, the FAA considered geography, climate, location of ground infrastructure, research
needs, airspace use, safety, aviation experience and risk. In totality, these six test applications achieve cross-country
geographic and climatic diversity and help the FAA meet its UAS research needs.
http://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=75399European Defence Agency (EDA) By Heiko Possel, Airworthiness Desk
http://www.uasresearch.com/UserFiles/File/039_Contributing-Stakeholder_EDA.pdf
U.S. reference: Challenges of Commercial UAV Operations in Civilian Airspace
Robert Morris, Principal Software Engineer, CDL Systems
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/15/tech/innovation/darpa-future-war/index.html?hpt=hp_c3
Evaluation of Candidate Functions for Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System II (TCAS II)
On Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS), March 21, 2011, TCAS on UAS Team, Federal Aviation Administration, Aviation
Safety, Flight Standards Service, Unmanned Aircraft Program Office, AFS‐407
ASRS Database Report Set Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Reports: A sampling of reports involving Unmanned Aerial
Vehicle (UAV) events; http://asrs.arc.nasa.gov/docs/rpsts/uav.pdf
Capability Safety Assessment of Trajectory Based Operations, December 21, 2011, Joint Planning and Development Office
(JPDO) Trajectory Based Operations
* - The Economic Impact of Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the United States, March 2013, Association for
Unmanned Vehicle Systems International; http://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/AUVSI/958c920a-7f9b-4ad29807-f9a4e95d1ef1/UploadedImages/New_Economic%20Report%202013%20Full.pdf
Co-author, Darryl Jenkins, was a member of the Executive Committee of the White House Conference on Aviation Safety
and Security.
Hartfield, Roy, Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV): Safety Event Prediction, and Classification, 12th AIAA Aviation Technology,
Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference, 17-19 September 2012, Indianapolis, IN
SAA_Second_Workshop_Final_Report_130118
Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Challenges for Safety Operating in the National Airspace System, Ai Line Pilots Association,
April 2011
Hundley, Joshua R., Civil UAV Type Certification, DoD Mishap Analysis 2000-2009 and FAA Certification Roadmap, Masters
Thesis, Auburn University, August, 2012
November 2013: FAA Releases UAS Roadmap: http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/uas/
Requires:
(1)
a determination of which types of unmanned aircraft systems, if any, as a result of their size, weight, speed,
operational capability, proximity to airports and populated areas, and operation within visual line of sight do not
create a hazard to users of the national airspace system or the public or pose a threat to national security; and
(2)
whether a certificate of waiver, certificate of authorization, or airworthiness certification under section 4.4704 of
title 49, United States Code, is required for the operation of unmanned systems identified under paragraph (1).
101
109
113
AN
S
OP
OP
OP
101. Redesigned or
dynamically
reconfigured
airspace
AN
S,
AP
AN
S,
AP
109. Increasing
utilization of
RNAV/RNP
departures and
approaches by
smaller aircraft
113. Increased
operations of
lighter-than-air
vehicles including
dirigibles and
airships
Increased future traffic may require
redesigning the airspace or dynamically
altering the airspace boundaries to
accommodate variable aircraft
equipage, weather, and ATC
procedures. Landing and approach
procedures design, coupled with
integrated onboard technologies,
providing unprecedented access and
visibility with safer lower minimum
altitudes (for example, augmented
global positioning system approaches).
Increased operations of regional jets
and smaller turboprop aircraft into
smaller airports via previously little used
airway routes may result in additional
demands on ATC and may result in
greater numbers of published
RNAV/RNP procedures to mitigate the
increased noise impact on local
communities. GPS/RNAV packages
with WAAS receivers being installed in
most current aircraft can meet RNP
equipment requirements for operations
down to RNP 0.3 and RNP 1.0 missed
approach procedures. That means that
aircraft such as the Cessna Mustang
and Embraer Phenom 100/300, among
other smaller equipped aircraft, are
likely candidates for RNP approvals.
Near
Airship development projects are
currently under development in various
countries with vehicle types ranging
from small observation platforms to very
large freight carriers. There is an
extensive body of historical experience
with airship operations that should be
used as the basis for future integration
of increasingly larger and more
numerous airships with fixed- and
rotary-wing aircraft operations.
Mid
Conventional hazard analysis impractical. For
example, it is simply not possible to exhaustively
enumerate all of the possible interactions that might
take place in a dynamically reconfigured airspace of
any considerable complexity.
1.
2.
3.
Near
4.
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
Constantly changing airspace points for traffic
situations
Coordination issues with other facilities
Controller awareness of constantly changing
airspace boundaries
Possible frequency issues at ATC facilities
New demands and unfamiliar procedures may
create slightly increased operational risk during
transition to these new procedures.
RNAV/RNP procedures may permit descent to
ILS-like minimums into airports not having
infrastructure such as runway approach and
centerline lights.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Pilot must
navigate to RNAV/RNP route. Associated human
performance hazard: Pilot deviates from
departure route / navigates to wrong route.
Inadequate sense-and-avoid capabilities during
transit through altitudes occupied by commercial
transport traffic for pilot-optional configurations.
Loss of control due to low-altitude wind shear
Page 42 of 110
DEFINING CRITICAL POINTS FOR DYNAMIC AIRSPACE CONFIGURATION
Shannon Zelinski NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California, 94035, USA
Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) Air Traffic Management (ATM)-Airspace
Project
Harry Swenson Principal Investigator NASA Ames Research Center
Richard Barhydt Co-Principal Investigator NASA Langley Research Center
Michael Landis Project Manager NASA Ames Research Center
FAA National Airspace and Procedures Plan 2010
http://www-users.cs.york.ac.uk/~tpk/issc04c.pdf
2014 – Projections of utilization:

RNAV departures
–
Now at about 25% of all Part 121 departures
–
Estimated to be about 80% of all Part 121 departures in 2033

STAR arrivals
–
Now at about 28% of all Part 121 arrivals
–
Estimated to be 70% of all Part 121 arrivals in 2033
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/jsp_includes/articlePrint.jsp?storyID=news/nextgen0710p12.xm
l&headLine=RNP%20Approach%20and%20Departure%20Procedures
RNAV/RNP GPS
A Safety Risk Management Panel (SRMP) met in March 2012, to evaluate potential hazards,
assess risk, and develop mitigation strategies, as necessary, pertaining to the use of 3600’
spaced runways found within the National Airspace System (NAS). The results of the GPS
required RNAV/RNP analysis are being provided to the SRMP with the intent of having this
capability included in final Safety Risk Management Document (SRMD).
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/avs/offices/afs/afs400/afs450/cspo/fo
cus_areas/
http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/lemv
Lockheed High Altitude Airship – July 2011
http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/lighter-than-air-vehicles/haa.html
114
OP
114. Increasing
operations of cargo
aircraft
According to Boeing, over the next 20
years, world air cargo traffic will grow
5.9% per year. Airfreight revenue-ton
kilometers growth, including sameday/next-day-air delivery traffic, will
average 6.0% annually. These aircraft
will operate differently from passenger
operations.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Utilization of less well equipped airfields
Operations at low traffic hours i.e. very late or at
night (with associated noise issues)
Operations at higher and lower average take-off
gross weights
Earlier structural failure (less concern for ride
quality resulting in greater exposure to structural
stress during turbulence)
Aircraft older than passenger-carrying aircraft
(aircraft operate for a full "second" life after cargo
conversion)
Load shifts
Mismanagement of hazardous materials
2013 - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released figures showing a 1.4%
expansion of global freight tonne kilometers (FTKs) in 2013 when compared to 2012. Cargo
markets made very slow progress during the first half of the year. Acceleration in the trend took
root in the latter half of 2013, placing air freight volumes on a steadily increasing trajectory.
Capacity grew faster than demand at 2.6% and load factors were weak at 45.3%.
Regional performance varied. Middle Eastern and Latin American carriers reported the strongest
growth in demand (12.8% and 2.4% respectively). Asia-Pacific carriers, which have nearly 40%
of the global air freight market, saw cargo activities shrink by 1.0% over the year. "2013 was a
tough year for cargo. While we saw some improvement in demand from the second half of the
year, we can still expect that 2014 will be a challenging year. World trade continues to expand
more rapidly than demand for air cargo. Trade itself is suffering from increasing protectionist
measures by governments. And the relative good fortunes of passenger markets compared to
cargo make it difficult for airlines to match capacity to demand," said Tony Tyler, IATA's Director
General and CEO.
http://www.lhconsulting.com/fileadmin/images/www.lhconsulting.com/company/news/
Trends_in_Cargo_Airline_Operations.pdf
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo/01_06.html
http://your.kingcounty.gov/airport/noise/part150_complete_3.pdf
117
OP
117. Very longrange operations,
polar operations,
and ETOPS flights.
Economic pressures may result in an
increase of Extended-range Twinengine Operations with longer flight
times, and flights greater than 7000 nm.
Recent approval of 330 minutes
ETOPS diversion time for a certain
aircraft is evidence of this.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Excessive crew duty times and inadequate crew
rest
Passenger health issues (deep vein thrombosis)
Inadequacy of support and/or medical facilities at
airports to which flights may be diverted and
survival after a crash in cold environments
Future concepts such as in-flight refueling or
formation flight have clear safety implications.
Inadequate fire suppression capability for duration
of ETOPS
Page 43 of 110
Bombardier Licenses Aeronautical Engineers For Passenger-To-Freighter Conversion:
Company Will Modify CRJ100, CRJ200 Aircraft, March 1, 2013
http://www.aero-news.net/ANNTicker.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=37fe0172-3690-466b-bd9c25547b16b7a3
http://www.ursi.org/proceedings/procGA08/papers/GP206p4.pdf (addresses radio
communication challenges)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-stop_flight
http://innopedia.wikidot.com/in-flight-refueling-for-commercial-airliners (distant future concept)
118
OP
EN
V
118. Emerging
alternate
operational models
in addition to huband-spoke
concepts
With approximately 10,000 airports in
the United States (a large portion of
which are small outlying airports), 'citypair' or 'point-to-point' operations, which
permit commuters to land as close to
their final destination as possible, are
increasing in frequency. Southwest
Airlines point-to-point model has been
praised as an alternative to traditional
hub-and-spoke operations. Decisions
to adopt these different operational
models may affect many areas of
aviation including:
- the introduction of new aircraft
designed for non hub and spoke
operations
- large fleets of small aircraft instead of
small fleets of large aircraft
Ongoing
1.
2.
Inadequate infrastructure at smaller airports
Hazardous new routes into these airports for
noise abatement and other traffic concerns
http://expertlywrapped.wordpress.com/2011/05/04/a-look-at-the-southwest-airtran-merger/
NextGen and SESAR include such paradigm shifts.
A European perspective described in “Flight Path 2050” is that 90% of travelers within Europe
are able to complete their journey, door-to-door within 4 hours. However this goal can be
achieved with several means of transport and doesn’t mean necessarily large fleets of small
aircraft that are competing with high-speed trains.
THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY: Trends, Challenges, Strategies; John Wensveen, Ph.D. Dean, School
of Aviation, Dowling College, New York, USA; www.dowling.edu
NetJets Announces Largest Private Aviation Order In History: Purchase From Bombardier And
Cessna Totals $9.6 Billion
In the largest aircraft purchase in private aviation history, NetJets Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway
company, announced Monday it will add up to 425 new aircraft to its worldwide fleet under
purchase agreements with Cessna and Bombardier. The transaction has a total value of $9.6
billion and launches the new NetJets Signature Series of aircraft.
NetJets Chairman and CEO Jordan Hansell. "Beyond the size of this order, what makes the new
NetJets Signature Series special are the latest in aircraft technology and in-cabin comfort
features we will deliver for our owners. By increasing the range and endurance of our fleet, we
will allow our owners to get to even more destinations worldwide.”
http://www.aero-news.net/subsite.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=ab5cef7e-637b-4b65-912eff4261801dbb
119
OP
T
119. Increasing
numbers of Light
Sport Aircraft
In the past decade, the number of Light
Sport Aircraft (LSA), hang-gliders,
paragliders and their motorized
versions has increased significantly.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
Inadvertent flight into unapproved airspace
Inadvertent flight into IFR conditions
Malfunction or failure of consumer-level avionics
utilized in such vehicles
Loss of control of such aircraft due to inadequate
training in unusual attitude recovery
These light sport aircraft are restricted from certain
airspace and may be piloted by people lacking basic
knowledge of the airspace structure.
Page 44 of 110
http://www.eaa.org/bitsandpieces/articles/0810_sa.pdf
CAAs statistics displaying number of aircrafts per category show up increasing number of very
light planes.
This link shows the expected increase across the globe , split by continent
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/04/12/355346/european-light-sport-aircraft-marketawaits-european.html
Personal communications from John Colomy, FAA Small Airplane Directorate, 8/18/2011:
Year
Cumulative U.S. Fleet Size
2004
0
2005
250
2006
500
2007
1000
2008
1500
2009
1750
2010
1900
2011*
2000
*through June
122
PE
RS
OP
122. Accelerated
transition of pilots
from simple to
complex aircraft
Economic pressures to recruit needed
pilots for Part 121 operations will likely
result in more rapid transition of
trainees from simple to complex aircraft.
Current certification standards may
need to be revisited in light of this
phenomenon. Training curricula must
provide the skills needed for command
of complex, advanced aircraft.
The transition from a light single-engine
training aircraft, or light twin aircraft for
that matter, to the cockpit of a large
commercial jet aircraft is an
overwhelming challenge for any
inexperienced pilot. The procedures
and culture of a commercial multi-crew
cockpit is completely different and new;
the feel of the controls, interfacing with
the automation, the complex aircraft
systems, the increase of speed and
accelerated pace of the flow, cockpit
protocol, etc. An inexperienced pilot
simply doesn’t know what he doesn’t
know; the basic procedural knowledge
that is absolutely crucial to effectively
function in the large jet multi-crew
cockpit environment.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Failure of students to “stay ahead of the airplane”
and anticipate effects of failures of basic systems
supporting complex airframes
Failure to properly execute checklists associated
with complex aircraft (post-takeoff checklist, for
instance)
Failure to perform basic engine management
during key phases of flight
Failure of MCPL a single crewmember to function
appropriately in the event of incapacitation of a
fellow crewmember.
At graduation, young pilots possess manual and
mental flying skills that are probably as sharp as
they will ever be. The sharp young pilots will be
working in today's ultra-reliable, highly automated
aeroplanes, operating the same uneventful flight
cycles every day - even if on different routes.
Line flying does not provide the on-the-job
experience that flying in classic aircraft once did,
so where is the stimulus going to come from to
keep their skills up to scratch?
This phenomenon is evident in
proposals for Multi-Crew Pilot License
(MCPL)
Page 45 of 110
Zero Flight Time To A JAA Multi-Engine CPL Frozen ATPL and Boeing 737NG Type Rating In
Less than One Year
http://www.globalpilotcareers.com/european-professional-pilot-training.php
How important is effective Jet Transition Training?
http://www.globalpilotcareers.com/blog/2011/106.html
Learmount, David, IN FOCUS: Loss of control - training the wrong stuff? Floghtglobal, January
2012
125
OP
EN
V
125. Operation of
low-cost airlines
Low-Cost Carriers have different
business models than those that are
characteristic of legacy carriers. This
may also mean that the way safety is
managed within the company is
different. Budget airlines are arguably
safer than many of their traditional "full
service" airline competitors for a
number of reasons:
- Newer Planes
- Streamlined maintenance
- Motivation to keep a flawless safety
record
Ongoing
Although this way of operating is not necessarily better
or worse, the fact that it is different may result in
unforeseen misunderstandings, (e.g., in safety
oversight by the authorities), or when it comes to joint
(low-cost and legacy airline) safety initiatives.
Some reports from confidential safety monitoring
programs, expressed the view that "aggressively
commercial ethos" of low-cost airlines could endanger
passengers. Some pilots - primarily flying for budget
operators - were reported as being under "extreme
pressure" to achieve punctual take-off and landing
times.
2014 – Until recently FTL were based more on operational practices under development since
the 1950s rather than on scientific or medical understanding. With the introduction of the low cost
carrier (LCC) business model of intensive short haul operations on the one hand, and the ultra
long-range (ULR) operations now being conducted on the other, the robustness of these
regulations is being pressure tested by line operations. With the burgeoning variety and
complexity of commercial air transport operations, these schemes have become ever more
complicated to the point where the effectiveness of current FTLs to protect pilots from riskinducing levels of fatigue have become questionable.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/04/20/340853/special-report-low-cost-carriers-comingof-age.html
http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2011/05/03/european-low-cost-carrier-growth-moderatesin-mar-2011/page1
THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY: Trends, Challenges, Strategies; John Wensveen, Ph.D. Dean, School
of Aviation, Dowling College, New York, USA; www.dowling.edu
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1397675/Air-controllers-safety-row-with-budgetairlines.html
Counterpoint view: http://www.budgetairlineguide.com/budget-airlines-safety
Most budget airlines only came into existence in the last decade, and as a result have some of
the newest models of airplanes currently in service that have the latest safety mechanisms and
procedures.
As well as having new planes, budget airlines also typically use only one model of plane. The
Boeing 737 is the most popular aircraft used by low cost carriers around the world. By only
having one model of aircraft in their fleet, budget airlines streamline their maintenance and repair
costs and make staff training much easier, rather than having several different types of older
airplanes in a legacy fleet to maintain, each with their own idiosyncrasies.
Page 46 of 110
129
EN
V
OP
129. Growth in
aviation system
throughput
Independent of demand trends, the
ATM system continues to require
additional capacity. As demand
approaches capacity, airlines increase
load factors and reduce schedules, the
pressure to improve throughput will
increase. Because of these conditions,
SESAR and NextGen have been
designed to upgrade ATM. While North
America and Europe have plans in
place to accommodate increased traffic,
greater growth rates are in emerging
economies in China, India, Middle East,
Asia, Africa, CIS, Latin America, and
Eastern Europe.
System capacity is projected to grow
4.5 percent in 2011. In the domestic
market, mainline carrier capacity is
forecast to grow for the first time in
three years (up 2.8 percent) while
capacity for the regional carriers grows
at a faster pace (up 3.8 percent). In the
international sector, capacity is forecast
to increase in all markets — Atlantic,
Latin, and Pacific. Mainline carrier
system capacity grows 4.6 percent,
while regional carrier capacity grows
3.8 percent.
According to IATA, worldwide freight
ton kilometers were up 21.9 percent for
the first 11 months of 2010 compared to
a 12.7 percent drop for the same period
in 2009.
The above forecasts should be
surveyed and cross-checked on an
annual basis.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Adverse operational events due to complexity and
unresolved international harmonization for regions
experiencing the most rapid growth
Shortcomings in execution of procedures due to
changing of roles and responsibilities for pilot,
controllers and others due to new concepts of
operation
Near misses, collisions, and runway
incursions/excursions due to new systems such
as traffic optimizers that will change operational
paradigms and affect flight profiles and dispatch
policies, procedures, and other aspects of aircraft
operation.
conformance and spends less time looking out
window. Associated human performance hazard:
Ground controller fails to observe changing airport
conditions that automation is incapable of
displaying.
conformance and spends less time looking out
window. Associated human performance
hazards:
a. Runway Entrance Light
extinguished and flight deck alert
extinguishes once the runway is
clear. Controller uses anticipated
separation and instructs pilot to
ignore runway status lights.
b. Runway Entrance Light status and
controller instruction disagree.
Pilot is over-reliant on runway
entrance light to determine runway
occupancy.
These changes will require frequent safety and hazard
assessment re-evaluation.
Page 47 of 110
Honeywell is forecasting demand for up to 5,500 civilian-use helicopters through 2018, according
to the avionics manufacturer's 16th Turbine-Powered Civil Helicopter Purchase Outlook released
at Heli-Expo 2014. Latin America leads all regions in new purchase rates, with up to 32 percent
of helicopter fleets scheduled for replacement over the next five years. “Global demand looks
steady on the heels of strong 2013 performance,” said Tom Hart, vice president, defense and
space sales, Honeywell Aerospace. “Utility helicopter purchase interest is trending upward.
Helicopter replacement cycles and increased operating hours in the law enforcement and oil &
gas industries help sustain demand in those sectors. Several new platforms are scheduled to
enter service in the next few years and this also is expected to bolster overall demand.”
June 24, 2011;
http://twentyfoursevennews.com/gcc/headline/middle-east-to-take-higher-percent-ofcommercial-aircraft-sales-deloitte-forecast/
http://www.airbus.com/company/market/gmf2010/
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aviation_forecasts/aerospace_fore
casts/2011-2031/media/2011%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf
133
AU
OP,
AP
133. Assessment of
user fees within
the aviation system
to recover costs of
operation
A user fees system comparable to
those constructed in Europe and
Canada may affect aviation businesses
and the safety of operations in America
and other countries. Fees for common
services such as landings, approaches,
weather reports, flight plans, and
certification, may provide an incentive
not to utilize those services.
In the U.S., One alternative to the
existing tax structure supported by the
airlines is a fee-for-service system that
would be more of a direct user fee
system than what is in place now.
Some industry observers claim that the
FAA has been mulling the idea of a
direct user fee structure to replace
existing aviation taxes and fees, and an
administration proposal has reportedly
been under review by the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB) for
some time. While the details of the
proposal are unknown, speculation is
that it will conform more closely to
international standards that stipulate
user fees be computed as some
function of the specific impact on air
traffic facilities and services, such as
the commonly used fees based on
aircraft weight and distance flown used
by many nations.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
Reduction in flights and landings required to
maintain proficiency
Reduction of utilization of fee-for-service
capabilities such as VFR flight following and IFR
services
Less attention to “safety critical” functions based
on user fees
Lack of positive air traffic control for aircraft
electing not to utilize fee-based services.
New user fees for flight in Class B airspace would likely
deter pilots from using certain airports and airspace
near major metropolitan areas. Today, ATC user fees
stymie general aviation around the world with huge
costs to operate aircraft and, most importantly, insert
cost considerations into critical safety decisions.
Page 48 of 110
Public Policy: political pressure to implement user fees remains a constant threat that needs
attention.
http://lieberman.senate.gov/assets/pdf/crs/faabackground.pdf
http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/userfees.html
Fair Taxation Instead of Aviation User Fees
By Scott Spangler on July 15th, 2013 - See more at: http://www.jetwhine.com/2013/07/fairtaxation-instead-of-aviation-user-fees/#sthash.dYsjouag.dpuf
136
T
EN
V
136. Increasing use
of Commercial Off
The Shelf (COTS)
products in
aviation
Economic pressures are driving many
commercial and governmental
operators within the aviation system
toward purchase of COTS products.
Although these products may have a
favorable cost-to-performance ratio,
they may not have been subject to the
verification and validation rigor required
to maintain safe, dependable operation
of the aviation system. Examples
include microprocessors (from PC
industry), operating systems (e.g.,
Windows and LINUX), and graphics
processors (from video game industry).
Near
The effect of a manufacturer's changes to aviation
COTS can be summarized by specific difficulties:
1. Airworthiness
2. Forced modifications
3. Interoperability among COTS products
4. Counterfeit parts that are vital to the computer
industry is expected to reach record high levels
Airworthiness is the primary safety characteristic of any
aircraft. A forced modification is one that is caused by
the change of form, fit, interface, function, mission
characteristic, or supply of the item. When supply is
affected, the acquirer must support the discontinued
item or find a replacement. The latter may force a
modification. More common in aviation COTS is an
FAA-directed change to an item called an airworthiness
directive (AD) FAA, 1996). The manufacturer has two
choices in implementing the AD: Discontinue the
product or make the required change. The user of the
item also has two choices: Get a replacement product,
if available, or make the changes required by the
directive. But there is no requirement for the
government to change its COTS items to
accommodate an AD. In such cases, the item becomes
government-unique. Because the government selfcertifies, it is not uncommon for non-FAA-certified
government aircraft to not make AD-directed changes.
Non-FAA-certified aircraft (military and other federal
agency-owned aircraft) are a significant segment of
aviation.
From 2001: http://www.faa.gov/aircraft/air_cert/design_approvals/air_software/media/AR-0126_COTS.pdf
Federal Acquisition and Streamlining Act (FASA) of 1994 initiated by the Department of Defense
(DoD). It was the intent of this legislation to encourage the utilization of the best available dualuse non-development COTS products from commercial/industrial suppliers in lieu of conventional
Mil-Spec components to the maximum extent practicable.
Electronic parts are responsible for about two-thirds of problems in U.S. space and missile
defense programs when those programs encounter difficulty—and almost all do--according to a
recent report from congressional auditors. A June report from the Government Accountability
Office looked into 21 major Defense Department and NASA programs and found that materials
were responsible for only about 21% of the problems, while mechanical parts made for roughly
15%. "Parts quality problems reported by each program affected all 21 programs we reviewed at
DOD and NASA and in some cases contributed to significant cost overruns, schedule delays and
reduced system reliability and availability," the GAO told the House's security and foreign
operations oversight subcommittee. Aerospace Daily & Defense Report (ASCII) - Aug 08, 2011
These figures are just as applicable for Civilian Aerospace. Electronic and electrical issues are
the number one problems even for a mechanical system as they are usually controlled by
electronics in some way. Once the military transitioned away from the MIL Standard compliant
components to Industry Standards we had to also transition. Reliability decreased as the stress
screening and requirements for the Mil Std where more severe than the industry standard
leaving us with considerably more infant mortality and tolerance issues we did not have with the
Mil Std components.
From 2000: Lessons Learned in Developing Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Intensive
Software Systems
http://www.compaid.com/caiInternet/ezine/COTS-lessonslearned.pdf
“If you have a safety-critical system, you don’t want state of the art COTS; you want mature
components.” When there are a number of COTS components, the issue of incorporating new
versions becomes a major concern. The greater the number of components, the greater the
number of version releases, each potentially coming out at different times. The problem of
keeping up with these releases is greatly compounded for safety-critical systems that must
remain in continual operation. With a safety-critical, continuously operating system, it makes
sense not to upgrade but to freeze the configuration for a number of years, after which the entire
system will be replaced. With this strategy, the concern shifts to supportability because vendors
will stop maintaining a product version after a period of time.
From: http://www.hstoday.us/single-article/growth-of-counterfeit-parts-expected-assemiconductor-market-grows-analysis-finds/34ef0f42f2a835b34c7a8f23bad46cca.html
The number of counterfeit parts that are vital to the computer industry is expected to reach
record high levels as the semiconductor industry enters “a phase of accelerating growth,”
according to an analysis of trends conducted byEl Segundo, Calif.-based information and
analytics provider, IHS. Up to 10% of all worldwide technology products are expected to be
counterfeit, while the Bureau of Industry and Security of the US Department of Commerce has
reported a rise in counterfeit incidents sequentially each year.
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138. Increased
need to monitor
incident and
accident precursor
trends
There is an increasing need to monitor
incident and accident precursor trends
and identify non-standard performance.
Proliferation of hardware and software
tools to monitor performance of aviation
systems is being introduced to fill this
need. Advanced systems for entering,
storing and disseminating safety critical
data for use in electronic, automated
and computerized flight systems are
appearing.
Ongoing
1.
2.
The increasing reliance on and acceptance of
such systems will require comprehensive controls,
procedures, and oversight to ensure that both
data accuracy and integrity are maintained.
While these new systems can help to identify
what happened, they may not be able to identify
why things happened. In the future a balance
between computer and human analysis will need
to be established.
Since there are few commercial aviation
accidents and fewer common causes,
more data points are needed. Voluntary
programs such as the Aviation Safety
Action Program (ASAP), Flight
Operations Quality Assurance (FOQA)
program, and the Air Traffic Safety
Action Program (ATSAP) give airlines
and the government insight into millions
of operations so that potential safety
issues and trends are identified. The
Aviation Safety Information Analysis
and Sharing (ASIAS) program connects
46 safety databases across the industry
and is integrated into the CAST
process. The program is evolving but
has matured to the point that the FAA
can now look at data from air carriers
representing 92 percent of U.S.
commercial operations and identify
emerging vulnerabilities and trends.
Safety improvements are made not only
through FAA regulations, but also
through CAST.
Page 50 of 110
http://www.asias.faa.gov/portal/page/portal/asias_pages/asias_home/ - February 2010
http://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=13257&print=go
http://eccairsportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
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139. Increasingly
stringent noise and
emissions
constraints on
aviation operations
Aircraft noise and emissions concerns
may become the most important
strategic obstacles for future
development of air transport. These
concerns impact the system in many
ways, including:
- Changes in certification requirements
for aircraft
- Changing aircraft traffic management
- Introduction of environmental levies or
the market based approach of
emissions trading
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
Runway use policies creating potential for runway
incursion/excursion and/or wrong runway
takeoffs/landing
New take-off and landing profiles which may
reduce safety margins
Noise curfews result in pressures to compress
departures and arrivals into time slots near the
beginning and end of curfew hours.
For instance, Continuous Descent Approach
(CDA) is a low-noise approach procedure.
Aviation safety experts raise important concerns
with flying aircraft at reduced power at lower
altitudes. The recovery rate for any kind of
disturbance at lower altitudes is reduced
significantly. At lower altitudes on less power,
aircraft is more difficult to control due to air
density. Bird strikes and engine stalls are much
more likely at lower altitudes at reduced power
and any last minute alterations could create result
in loss of control.
Page 51 of 110
Continuous Descent Operation is an operation, enabled by airspace design, procedure design
and ATC facilitation, in which an arriving aircraft
descends continuously to the greatest possible extent,
by employing minimum engine thrust, ideally in a low drag configuration, prior to the final
approach fix”.
Following a year-long trial, new lowered approach speeds will be implemented permanently at
Gothenburg’s Landvetter and City airports in southern Sweden. The average speed reduction
achieved during the EcoDescend project test period corresponds to an extended flight-time of
about 35 seconds, but resulted in reduced emissions and fuel savings for the airlines.
EcoDescend project manager Patrik Bergviken, who is also an air traffic controller at Landvetter,
said: “The project calculated that the approach speed reduction during the test period
corresponded to a saving of 800 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year in the Gothenburg area,
which also means around SEK2 million ($300,000) less in fuel costs for the airlines. These are
large volumes for a change which is relatively simple to implement and which is also in demand
by the airlines.”
http://www.icao.int/Act_Global/OperationalMeasures.pdf
http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/partner/reports/caep8/caep8-nox-using-apmt.pdf
http://www.ourairspace.org/cda.html
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141. Changes in
aviation fuel
composition
Global environmental and safety
concerns may require use of alternative
fuels and the elimination of leaded fuels
to address emissions and volatility
concerns. There are a number of
potential routes available, for example
synthetic kerosene or Fischer-Tropsch
fuels from coal or biomass, but there is
also the possibility to use bio-fuels such
as Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAMEs) in
aviation and plans to test these are in
hand. Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) fuels may be
the next big advance in terms of
reducing the aviation industry's reliance
on petroleum and improving its carbon
footprint.
Mid
1.
2.
Engine failure/degradation due to:
- fuel specifications with differing properties such
as lubricity, lower aromatic content, etc.
- cross contamination with incompatible fuels in
pipelines
Contamination levels from particular refineries
may exceed allowable limits. Sources of
contamination can include water, particulates or
biodegradation (which forms a gummy residue in
the fuel), bacterial growth or overuse of biocide
used to control bacterial growth.
The migration of fuel specifications in response to
environmental and economic pressures needs to be
controlled to assure the performance, reliability and
safety of aircraft fuel systems and engine hardware.
2014 - A biofuel is a fuel that uses energy from a carbon fixation
These fuels are produced from living organisms. Examples of this carbon fixation are plants
and microalgae. These fuels are made from a biomass conversion. Biomass refers to recently
living organisms, most often referring to plants or plant-derived materials. This biomass can be
converted to energy in three different ways: thermal conversion, chemical conversion, and
biochemical conversion. This biomass conversion’s can be in solid, liquid, or gas form. This
new biomass can be used for biofuels. Biofuels have increased in popularity because of the
raising oil prices and need for energy security. However, according to the European
Environment Agency, biofuels do not necessarily mitigate global warming.
Examples are Bio ethanol, bio diesel
From Skybrary:
Prior to in-flight use, HEFA fuels were exhaustively tested under both laboratory and ground
engine run conditions. Blends containing conventional jet fuel and up to 50% biofuel were
compared against unblended petroleum based fuel with no significant performance variances
observed. Inflight testing milestones include:

February 2008 - Virgin Atlantic 747-400 flight with one engine burning a 20% biodiesel
blend

December 2008 - Air New Zealand 747-400 flight with a 50/50 blend of Jatropha based
biofuel and convential fuel

January 2009 - Continental Airlines operates the first flight with an algae derived biofuel

January 2009 - Japan Airlines 747-300 flight with a 50/50 blend of jet fuel and
Camelina/Jatropha/Algae based HEFA fuel June 2011 - Boeing Company 747-800
freighter transAtlantic flight with all engines burning a 15% HEFA fuel blend

August 2011 - Aeromexico 777-200 transAtlantic flight with revenue passengers using a
30% Jatropha based blend
Since 2011, the use of blended biofuel in commercial operations has become increasingly
more common although price and availability have, thus far, limited its widespread utilization.
http://www.cgabusinessdesk.com/document/aviation_tech_review.pdf
http://www.omega.mmu.ac.uk/Events/Alternative_Aviation_Fuels_Conference_Report300309.pdf
http://www.future-fuels-aviation.com/
http://www.fastcompany.com/1768513/butanol-the-aviation-fuel-of-the-future: One of the main
candidates for GA is butanol, a close chemical relative of the fuel in butane cigarette lighters. It's
more suitable for aviation than ethanol, which offers only modest energy outputs, isn't fully
compatible with existing internal combustion engines, and corrodes the pipelines it travels
through.
http://npma-fuelnet.org/certification/Track102/Monday-1345-DeanFlessasCertificationofNewAlternativeJetFuelsforInfrastructure.pdf
Croft, John Fuel Supply Suspect In CFM56 Thrust Instabilities, Source: Aviation Week & Space
Technology; http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_02_18_2013_p33548344.xml
Boeing and CFM International are scrutinizing fuel supplies and the Honeywell-built fuel-control
system in the CFM56-7B following a series of thrust-instability events on Boeing 737NG aircraft.
Their findings could have broader implications for the Jet A supply chain and fuel-testing regimen
if contamination is behind the incidents. “We're doing a root-cause analysis, looking at the fuelcontrol unit and the entire fuel supply chain,” says Boeing. “The problem might be fuel-based.”
The instabilities, described as a fluctuation in N1 (low-pressure spool) and N2 (high-pressure
spool) speeds, are occurring at high power settings, for example in climbing to cruise altitude,
after which “engine operation typically returns to normal,” says Boeing.
There have been 32 thrust-instability events since the first was reported in January 2008, with 17
of the events in the Alaska Airlines fleet, according to Boeing.
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142. Language
barriers in aviation
Although English may the international
language of aviation, even when pilots
and controllers both speak English
fluently, there are pitfalls in the nature
of language and the ways that language
is heard.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
Accident investigators may not have the
expertise of the training to recognize
the role of language-related factors in
aviation accidents
4.
5.
6.
7.
144
OR
G
144. Changing
management and
labor relationships
in aviation
Changes in economic pressures on
aviation industry may result in
significant modifications in management
structure.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Subversion of messages that seem clear to the
sender due to subtle miscues
Linguistic misunderstandings
Maintenance and inspection personnel whose
native language is not English suggests that
language barriers may be causing performance
errors
Tendency of non-English speaking pilots to not
ask for confirmation of clearances they have not
fully understood. Inhibitions not seen in native
speakers.
Factors related to assumptions, errors and
dropped responsibilities due to lack of language
proficiency have contributed to major accidents.
Critical material may not be communicated
effectively in training sessions requiring the
services of interpreters. Interpreters must have
fluency in aerospace terminology.
Ineffective communication can compromise
aviation safety in three basic ways:
a. Wrong information may be used.
b. Situation awareness may be lost.
c. Participants may fail to build a
shared model of the present
situation at a team level.
Loss of technical expertise in management ranks
Realignment of relationships between
management and labor resulting in role ambiguity
and loss of technical oversight
Poor resource allocation decision-making due to
profitability concerns that are not cognizant of
safety issues
Exacerbated difficulty in staffing transitions and
role redefinitions (including situational awareness
training) resulting from investment, allocation
decisions
Labor-management disputes resulting in poor
operational performance
Page 53 of 110
http://www.airlinesafety.com/editorials/BarriersToCommunication.htm
http://atcreadback.com/aviationheadlines/
http://planenews.com/archives/2352/
http://www.hf.faa.gov/docs/508/docs/Maint%20-%20Language%20SUNY.pdf
Various constituencies have been pushing for "simplified English", eventually AECMA and now
ASD have embraced it, see http://www.asd-ste100.org/
Language Gap: Most accident investigators lack the tools and training to analyze languagerelated factors in aviation accidents, asw_dec11-jan12_p22-27.pdf
Labor-Management Relations and the Federal Aviation Administration: Background and Current
Legislative Issues
http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1520&context=key_workplace&s
ei-redir=1#search=%22Changing%20management%20labor%20relationships%20aviation%22
Management-Labour Partnership in the European Civil Aviation Industry
http://ejd.sagepub.com/content/10/3/287.abstract
http://web.mit.edu/airlines/analysis/analysis_airline_industry.html
http://catsr.ite.gmu.edu/SYST660/p.pdf
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148. Increasing
frequency of
hostile acts against
the aviation system
With the national airspace system
(NAS) increasingly interconnected to
partners and customers both within and
outside the U.S. government, the
danger of cyber attacks on the system
is increasing. Because of low-cost
computer technology and easier access
to malware, or malicious software code,
it is conceivable for individuals,
organized crime groups, terrorists, and
nation-states to attack the U.S. air
transportation system infrastructure.
Given the advanced persistent threat of
sophisticated cyber an attack, securing
the Next Generation Air Transportation
System, or NextGen, is paramount.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
Cyber attacks on data links, databases, EFB's
and iPads and digital/ electromechanical systems,
jamming resulting in loss of RF signals used for
critical CNS functions and FADEC operation.
Increasing sophistication and proliferation of
explosive materials, biological/chemical toxic
agents, and anti-aircraft weapons.
Increasing frequency of distraction, glare and
temporary flash blindness from easily available
and low cost of high-power lasers
If the current rate of laser pointer incidents continues
on the same trend as last year (2010), it is projected
that there will be 3,901 incidents in calendar year 2011.
This is a 40% increase compared with the 2,776
incidents1 in calendar year 2010.
NextGen is the large-scale
transformation of the NAS that will
make the system more dynamic and
flexible by enabling aircraft to fly more
efficient routes. But NextGen also
requires increased connectivity with
commercial aviation entities and foreign
civil aviation agencies, meaning more
potential points of entry for cyber
attacks. Computer and communications
networks used in the NAS and
NextGen, like networks everywhere,
require new defenses against rapidly
evolving cyber security threats. To help
the Federal Aviation Administration
address these threats, MITRE has
developed the NAS Enterprise
Information System Security
Architecture. [MITRE]
2014 - Hardware trojans:
Researchers have shown that it is possible to compromise the functioning of a cryptographic
chip without changing its physical layout. Based on altering the distribution of dopants in a few
components on the chip during fabrication, this method represents a big challenge for cybersecurity as it is nearly impossible to detect with any currently practical detection scheme.
Progress in the design and fabrication of processor chips is mainly aimed at making them
faster and smaller. There is another important requirement, however – ensuring that they
function as intended. In particular, the cryptographic functions of new chips must provide the
level of security with which they were designed. If they fail in this task, even use of
sophisticated security software, physical isolation, and well vetted operators cannot ensure the
security of a system.
Such structural attacks on the functions of a chip are called hardware Trojans, and are capable
of rendering ineffective the security protecting our most critical computer systems and data.
Both industry and governments have put a great deal of not very public effort into the problem
of hardware Trojans. The most reliable tests to find hardware Trojans will be applied to the
finished product. So how are they tested and what are the implications of the new research?
September 2013 France: Quantum-Safe-Crypto Workshop
This workshop brought together the diverse communities that will need to co-operate to
standardize and deploy the next-generation cryptographic infrastructure, in particular, one that
will be secure against emerging quantum computing technologies.
http://www.mitre.org/news/digest/aviation/01_11/nas_cybersecurity.html
4/20/2011 - Cyber intrusions increasing in frequency and success
http://www.gsnmagazine.com/node/23068
2012 Threats Predictions, McAffee, An Intel Company
Several new scenarios will emerge as well as some significant evolutions in even
established threat vectors:

Industrial threats will mature and segment

Embedded hardware attacks will widen and deepen

Hacktivism and Anonymous will reboot and evolve

Virtual currency systems will experience broader and more frequent attacks

This will be the “Year for (not “of”) Cyberwar”

DNSSEC will drive new network threat vectors

Traditional spam will go “legit,” while spearphishing will evolve into the targeted
messaging attack

Mobile botnets and rootkits will mature and converge

Rogue certificates and rogue certificate authorities will undermine users’ confidence

Advances in operating systems and security will drive next-generation botnets and
rootkits
http://www.laserpointersafety.com/news/news/othernews_files/ba42eb9d90335f85f30c2bb056853328-162.php
The FAA has taken recent action (January 2012) to prototype and test devices for locating GPS
spoofing transmitters with the intention of reducing that particular future threat.
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161. Increasing
numbers of
migratory birds
near airports
OR
G
170. Increasing
manufacturer sales
price incentives
due to expanding
competitive
environment
The upward trend of approximately 3%
per annum should be assumed to be
valid until more information becomes
available (EASA finding).
The rate of bird strikes is increasing due
to:
- Increasing populations of various
species of large flocking birds
(particularly in regions of high-density
air traffic)
- Increasing numbers of wetlands
restoration projects near major airports
and Metroplex regions such as the San
Francisco Bay Area
Economic pressure on aircraft
manufacturers can cause them to offer
incentives, such as warranty against
future Airworthiness Directives (AD).
The long-term nature of many of
contracts makes the process of
estimating costs and revenues on fixedprice contracts inherently risky. Fixedprice contracts often contain price
incentives and penalties tied to
performance that can be difficult to
estimate and have significant impacts
on margins. In addition, some contracts
have specific provisions relating to cost,
schedule and performance.
Ongoing
1.
2.
Approach and departure paths with greater
exposure to over-water flight conditions and
greater likelihood of bird strikes
The recovery ability for any kind of disturbance at
lower altitudes is reduced significantly
Egregious hazards Include:
A/C Controllability

A/C control can be compromised or that there
were control issues present
Fire

A fire may occur as a result of the strike
Multiple Systems Damaged

More than one system may be compromised as a
result of the strike, e.g. an event where LE slats,
propulsion, and fuel system were all damaged
and adversely impacted the flight.
High Speed Rejected Take-Off (RTO)

RTOs are a high risk event. Subject to speed,
runway conditions, runway length, etc.
Loss of/Unreliable Cockpit Data

Data systems that supply the cockpit are either
lost or no longer reliable. This includes, but is not
limited to, air data, communications, nav data.
Cockpit Intrusion (Risk of Pilot Incapacitation)

Strike resulted in the bird entering the cockpit.
Near
1.
2.
Delays in implementing a recommended
mitigation (Service Bulletin)
Manufacturer belief that all mitigations enhancing
safety will become an AD, usually at a later date
and then be covered by the warranty
This phenomenon may be mitigated to some extent by
implementation of SMS.
Page 55 of 110
July 20, 2013: Bay Area sea gull population explodes, bringing flocks of problems,
http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_23680401/bay-area-sea-gull-population-explodesbringing-flocks
UK CAA studies on large flocking birds.
http://www.easa.eu.int/rulemaking/docs/research/Final%20report%20Bird%20Strike%20Study.pd
f
Wildlife Significant Strike Categories, presented top the U.S. CAST, February 7, 2013
The Boeing Company 2011 Annual Report
http://www.envisionreports.com/ba/2011/20707FE11E/d2e2b5ec9432426e825952329f64083a/B
oeing_AR_3-23-11_SECURED.pdf
174
AP
AN
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OP,
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174. New surface
traffic flow
management
technologies
The sustained growth in air traffic and
limitations in existing airport
infrastructure have in recent years put a
strong emphasis on the development
and standardization of future advanced
surface movement guidance, control,
and management systems. The
objective of the technologies is to
increase the traffic-flow capacity at
airports, while maintaining the required
safety level.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Database errors
Runway incursions/excursions due to lack of
proper training, interface design, and usage
Equipage inconsistencies between aircraft and
ground surface flow equipment
Failure to follow assigned taxi clearance due to
poor flight deck interface design
Cyber attack
Page 56 of 110
ATRiCS - Advanced Surface Movement Operations
http://www.airport-technology.com/contractors/traffic/atrics/
FAA NextGen Implementation Plan March 2012
http://www.faa.gov/nextgen/implementation/media/NextGen_Implementation_Plan_2012.pdf
184
OP
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184. Increasing
amount of
information
available to flight
crew
The layout and function of cockpit
displays controls are designed to
increase pilot situation awareness
without causing information overload.
The cockpit environment is changing.
Traditionally the major demands placed
on a pilot were associated with the task
of flying the aircraft; however as levels
of cockpit complexity increase, the
focus has changed away from skill to
knowledge–based tasks, and the role of
the pilot is centered on the processing
of information. This information may be
presented in a number of different
formats, in the auditory or visual
modality for example, containing either
verbal or spatial information, and pilots
may interact with cockpit systems from
numerous interfaces. Flight Crews will
be required to interact with an
increased amount of information like
CPDLC data, traffic information on
CDTIs for ASAS applications, electronic
route manuals/flight bags and even the
World Wide Web. Pilots will have to be
trained to efficiently use the new data
and interfaces. The RAeS/GAPAN
paper suggests more terrain information
on the map displays.
The Rockwell Collins Heads Up
Guidance System (HGS) includes a
compact, optical design contained
within a single pilot display unit
precisely installed in the area of the
windshield sill beam. This unit provides
pilots of light and midsize jets with the
same Heads Up Display (HUD)
capabilities of larger modern jets. The
HUD symbology accurately overlays the
outside world and is focused at optical
infinity, eliminating the need for the pilot
to refocus between that HUD
symbology and real world features
viewed through the HUD.
Ongoing
1.
Crew distraction resulting from information being
presented on supplementary displays, requiring
the crew to divide their attention
2. Flight crew confusion resulting from multiple
modes being annunciated at one time
3. Poor retrofit integration with existing systems
4. Cluttering if information is presented on a single
screen
5. Potential for information overload and excessive
workload
6. Failure to display information in easily understood
form, making monitoring difficult and complicating
execution of emergency operating procedures
7. Failure to provide controls feedback and tactile
cues to the pilot at critical stages of flight
8. The sheer volume of information available, and
the confusion it causes may become major
contributors to fatal accidents and/or trigger
unconscious human reflexive responses that may
be detrimental to the continued safe flight and
landing of the aircraft.
9. NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Pilot sees the
required runway visual references prior to
reaching the decision height and continues the
approach safely below published minimums.
Associated human performance hazard: Pilot
does not see visual references at decision height,
proceeds below minimums using
enhanced/synthetic vision system.
10. For HUD-equipped aircraft, pilots may be
distracted by the compelling view through the
HUD on takeoff or on landing roll out and may fail
to notice incursion by other vehicles entering the
runway from the sides.
2014 - The Airborne Separation Assistance System (ASAS) is an aircraft system that enables the
flight crew to maintain separation of aircraft from one or more aircraft and provides flight
information concerning the surrounding traffic.
8.4
Cockpit Automation Issues FAA: Human factors issues of cockpit automation, Automation
incidents and accidents, Human centered automation
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CC8QFjAA
&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.faa.gov%2Fother_visit%2Faviation_industry%2Fdesignees_
delegations%2Fdesignee_types%2Fame%2Fmedia%2FSection%2520II.8.4%2520Cockpit
%2520Automation%2520Issues.doc&ei=nyYjU9rREajX2AX4YDYAQ&usg=AFQjCNEoPpTmuzoOrvh5EukAMHumWpLwTQ&sig2=UkYjVaHxaL51c64n
8XUzrA&bvm=bv.62922401,d.b2I
Vincenzi, Dennis A., Mouloua, Mustapha, Hancock, Peter A. eds.,, Human Performance,
Situation Awareness and Automation: Current Research and Trends, March 2004
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA426023#page=199
THE FUTURE FLIGHT DECK; the Guild of Air Pilots and Air Navigators
http://www.gapan.org/ruth-documents/study-papers/Future%20Flight%20Deck.pdf
Information Communication and Display
http://www.volpe.dot.gov/infosrc/highlts/05/winter/focus.html
Any new electronic display introduced into an operator's environment could have negative
consequences if it is not implemented appropriately. On the flight deck, the consequences are
particularly serious. An increasing number of electronic displays, ranging from small handheld
displays for general aviation to installed displays for commercial air transport, show navigation
information such as symbols representing navigational aids.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDoQFjAA&url=htt
p%3A%2F%2Fwww.hf.faa.gov%2Fhfportalnew%2FSearch%2FDOCs%2FNextGen%2520Interi
m%2520Human%2520Hazard%2520Assessment%2520%2520TASC%25202.pdf&ei=CycjU5atH6bi2wWayoDABQ&usg=AFQjCNEJHuIr0dXTq8UaXgcK
CFnfvfy1dQ&sig2=rsCL3pOJTafwfTXQ2SXZ4Q&bvm=bv.62922401,d.b2I
Rockwell Collins Head-up Guidance System (HGS)
http://www.rockwellcollins.com/~/media/Files/Unsecure/Products/Product%20Brochures/Displays
/Head%20up%20displays/HGS-3500%20White-Paper.aspx
The EU-funded FLYSAFE project brought together the research and simulations of the coming
new ATM technology. The project was set up to improve the safety of air travel by providing
crews with better information on the three most common external threats for aircraft – weather
conditions, traffic collision and terrain collision. FLYSAFE looked at the design, development,
implementation, testing and validation of a ‘Next Generation Integrated Surveillance System’ (NG
ISS).
A key FLYSAFE development is a Weather Information Management Systems (WIMS) to gather
much more detailed and accurate information on upcoming weather conditions than current
systems. This means pilots will be better warned about potentially dangerous situations such as
Clear Air Turbulence (CAT), thunderstorms and icing – conditions which current aircraft weather
radar. FLYSAFE utilized a multidisciplinary team to produce useful results.
Page 57 of 110
185
T
OP
185. Introduction
of NonDeterministic
Approaches (NDA)
and artificial
intelligence (self
learning) in
aviation systems
Complex engineered products are more
likely to meet performance
requirements when NDA are used.
Aircraft structural health management
has always relied upon NDA.
Management of the Next Generation Air
Transportation System (NextGen) will
use NDA for trajectory-based
operations (TBO) to account for aircraft
position and weather uncertainty.
Future flight decks may contain, or be
expected to interact with, software
“intelligent agents.” The characteristics
of these agents may differ significantly
from most software tools in use today.
The increasing complexity of
technology drives the need for such
NDA.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
Certification challenges due to non-deterministic
nature of AI outputs from integrated modular
architectures
Pilots not understanding intent and actions of AI
avionics
Failure to achieve robustness, as defined under
DO-178B guidelines - the very specific proof that
under all application failure conditions, a single
failure in one partition will not affect other
partitions.
Jan, 2011 - Mahadevan, Nagabhushan, Abhishek, Dubey and Karsai, Gabor, A Case Study On
The Application of Software Health Management Techniques, TECHNICAL REPORT, SIS-11101
Due to the increasing software complexity in modern cyber-physical systems there is a
likelihood of latent software defects that can escape the existing rigorous testing and
verification techniques but manifest only under exceptional circumstances.
These circumstances may include faults in the hardware system, including both the
computing and non-computing hardware. Often, systems are not prepared for such faults.
Such problems have led to number of failure incidents in the past, including but not limited
to those referred to in this study:





Ariane 5 inquiry board report. Technical report, Available at:
http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/esa-x-1819eng.pdf, June 1996.
A. T. S. Bureau. In-flight upset; 240km nw perth, wa; boeing co 777-200, 9m-mrg.
Technical report, August 2005.
T. S. Bureau. Ao-2008-070: In-flight upset, 154 km west of learmonth, wa, 7 october
2008, vh-qpa, airbus a330-303. Technical report, October 2008.
W. S. Greenwell, J. Knight, and J. C. Knight. What should aviation safety incidents
teach us? In SAFECOMP 2003, The 22nd International Conference on Computer
Safety, Reliability and Security, 2003.
NASA. Report on the loss of the mars polar lander and deep space 2 missions.
Technical report, NASA, 2000.
“Nondeterministic approaches,” AIAA Aerospace America, December 2011
http://www.cotsjournalonline.com/articles/view/101451
Collision avoidance in commercial aircraft Free Flight via neural networks and non-linear
programming, Christodoulou MA, Kontogeorgou C
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18991361
http://www.theuav.com/; Autonomy is commonly defined as the ability to make decisions without
human intervention. To that end, the goal of autonomy is to teach machines to be "smart" and
act more like humans. Past efforts in the field of artificial intelligence include expert systems,
neural networks, machine learning, natural language processing, and vision. To some extent,
the ultimate goal in the development of autonomy technology is to replace the human pilot.
Page 58 of 110
187
AN
S
PE
RS,
OP
187. Shift in
responsibility for
separation
assurance from
ATC to flight crew
related to 82:
Technologies and
procedures
enabling reduced
separation
With the introduction of technologies
like ASAS (Airborne Separation
Assistance Systems) and ADS-B
(Automatic Dependent Surveillance),
future flight crews may be faced with
increased responsibility for separation
assurance during all phases of flight.
One example is Airborne Information for
Lateral Spacing (AILS) approaches to
close parallel runways in Instrument
Meteorological Conditions (IMC) will
increase the capacity of parallel
runways to be equivalent to those in
VMC conditions. Future operational
concepts shift the responsibility for
separation and appropriate evasive
maneuvers from ATC to the flight deck.
Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) In and Out is an
essential capability within NextGen
implementation plans. It is also
featured in SESAR. GNSS and GPS
services are essential for full ADS-B
capabilities.
Certain OEMs may have recently
moved away from the self-separation
operational concept.
Mid
1.
2.
Complex air/ground systems
Intent and reasoning systems not well understood
by the pilot
3. Unfamiliar, and unanticipated characteristics and
interfaces (also when partial system lessons
learned from another region will need to be
absorbed)
4. Systems approach a semi-autonomous status
with interfacing systems without awareness by the
flight crew
5. Systems given limited control of the vehicle
independent of the crew
6. Lack of clarity when responsibility has been
reassigned and how it may vary by phase of flight
and type of airspace.
7. Breakdown in the fusion of current (radar) and
near-term surveillance technologies (ADS-B
In/Out) plus the procedures and phraseology that
goes with them.
8. NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Controller
assists with weather avoidance, but overall
responsibility remains with pilot. Associated
human performance hazard: Sector controller fails
to notice pilot request for assistance.
9. Computer-to-computer transfer of separation
responsibility does not occur properly.
10. Ground based conflict resolution not calculated.
With increasing levels of traffic, TCAS may not
provide a robust defense.
Page 59 of 110
Separation Assurance and Collision Avoidance Concepts for the Next Generation Air
Transportation System, John P. Dwyer, Boeing Research & Technology Center and Steven
Landry, School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University
FAA/EUROCONTROL Cooperative R&D, “Principles of Operations for the Use of ASAS,” 2001
http://adsb.tc.faa.gov/RFG/po-asas71.pdf
FAA AVS Workplan for NextGen 2012, P. 73
http://www.faa.gov/nextgen/media/avs_nextgen_workplan_2012.pdf
OI 102137 - Automation Support for Separation Management: ANSP automation enhancements
will take advantage of improved communication, navigation, and surveillance coverage in the
oceanic domain. When authorized by the controller, pilots of equipped aircraft use established
procedures for climbs and descents.
188
OP
PE
RS
188. Introduction
of new training
methodologies for
operation of
advanced aircraft
Current check-and-training systems
developed to maintain flight standards
on earlier generation aircraft may not
necessarily cover all issues relevant to
operation of advanced aircraft. Training
is evolving from a skill-based
instructional and examining activity; to
one that uses scenario-based training
to integrate risk management,
aeronautical decision-making (ADM),
situational awareness, and single-pilot
resource management (SRM)
Research must be pursued to:
- Define the changing profile of job
qualifications needed by applicants
- Devise efficient methods and tools by
which to select qualified candidates
without high attrition costs
- Develop and validate advanced
training delivery systems that meet
future staffing and training requirements
- Create cost-effective new equipment
training guidelines and procedures
- Provide integrated team training for all
aviation operations
- Address training for mixed fleet and
multi-cultured crews
- Evaluate and remediate skill decay for
diagnostic and complex operational
tasks
Near
1.
2.
3.
Lack of in-flight situational awareness, decisionmaking, and inadequate risk management if
training methods are not effective.
A single unsatisfactory demonstration of a test
event will result in suspension of the check ride or
simulator session.
Failure to identify risks beyond an emergent or
abnormal procedure. There are enormous cultural
difficulties in satisfactory implementation of CRM:
authoritarian captains, subservient first officers
(not permitted to touch the controls), and
emerging trend of some pilots to reject CRM
because of the perception by captains that CRM –
flight by consensus - is being abused by FOs?
2014 – Swiss International Air Lines (SWISS) is transitioning from their current fleet of British
Aerospace 146 (BAE 146) and Avro Jets to the Bombardier CSeries aircraft. This transition
presents a unique opportunity to study the impact of the advanced automation in the CSeries
aircraft on the development of operational procedures, pilot training, fatigue, Flight Time
Limitations (FLT) for pilots, and other human systems integration challenges. No US operator is
currently scheduled to receive the CSeries aircraft, although this aircraft represents the
technologies we can expect to prevail under the NextGen vision of the NAS. Research activities
may potentially lead to needed insight for increasing safe and effective human-system integration
for fleet transitions, as well as, the improvement of aviation safety for the aviation industry as a
whole. The CSeries is in its early stages of flight-testing and represents the most advanced
aircraft in commercial aviation.
The testing or checking of pilots under the FAA regulations focuses on the test events listed in
the Practical Test Standard (PTS). While it can be argued that PTS testing events should be
demonstrated on an initial test, it can also be argued a good number of test events should be
waived for subsequent testing of pilot proficiency previously rated on the same aircraft type. Not
all testing events listed in the PTS should be tested in one testing event as a number of these
events can be trained to a required standard due to the number of times those events are taught
and demonstrated by the pilot. i.e., V1 cuts.
This would also go a long way in avoiding candidate failures. Recent legislation now allows a
pilots test record since logging his/her first hours to be divulged to any prospective employer.
Candidates receive unsatisfactory results from time to time following a checkride for various
reasons. The reasons for this can be varied. The reality of this Part 61 check is that each event is
assessed as satisfactory or unsatisfactory. A single unsat demonstration of a test event will result
in suspension of the check. Training must follow and a second recommendation for the check
signed off by the instructor providing the additional training before the check can be resumed.
This method can unfairly label or tarnish an otherwise proficient pilot as it is termed a ‘failure’.
Failures don’t sit well with the travelling public who expect perfection from their pilots and
perfection just isn’t reality. Failure is not only a part of success it is also a part of gaining
experience. We learn from mistakes and failures, or should. The way in which pilot proficiency
and ability is tested or checked under the FAA should be re-thought to bring out the best in a
candidate when being tested. It should also allow for the re-testing of any event assessed as
unsat during the same checking event primarily because of this new legislation.
The number of envelope protected aircraft in today’s airliner fleet suggests training stall
recognition and recovery could also be waived from a test event as stall recognition and recovery
can be reviewed and signed off as proficient during a training event by a qualified instructor type
rated on the same aircraft. The increased use of Synthetic Flight Training Devices (SFTD)
should be encouraged and would provide the perfect environment for training in task
management, LOFT scenario based decision making events, and identifying risks beyond an
emergent or abnormal procedure.
The FAA/Industry Stall/Stick Pusher
team has developed changes for the
Practical Test Standards (in progress),
anticipated to be published at the same
time as the final version of the AC on
flight crew training.
http://www.faa.gov/training_testing/training/fits/training/generic/media/inspector.pdf
The general aviation industry is developing new training standards for Technically Advanced
Aircraft (TAA). Since its introduction, FITS has evolved into one of the most important safety
initiatives undertaken by the general aviation community. The FAA Industry Training Standards
(FITS) program is designed to address the changes introduced by the global positioning system
(GPS) and the differences in the units and their operating systems including the data inputting
functions and techniques.
Simulation capability within present day CBTs brings a whole new level of fidelity to the training
delivery. This can also be web deployed to the financial relief of the customer airline and the
learning benefit for the student pilot. As this approach to training is developed and improved the
industry will benefit through further implementation of high fidelity simulation content of the
aircraft being learned.
Page 60 of 110
The number of technically advanced aircraft continues to grow dramatically. Cirrus Design is now
producing 12 aircraft a week, while manufacturers such as Cessna, Piper, Lancair Certified,
Mooney, and Diamond Aircraft are introducing “glass” cockpit systems to their respective lines of
piston singles and light twins. Couple this with the new generation of single-pilot jets scheduled
for production, and it becomes clear that training techniques rooted in the 1930’s and 40’s are
woefully inadequate for the 21st century aviator.
http://www.faa.gov/training_testing/training/fits/training/flight_instructor/media/Volume1.pdf
189
PE
RS
EN
V
189. Shifting
demographics from
military to civilian
trained pilots
NOTE: 259 captures
an analogous shift
in demographics
among incoming,
fresh-out air traffic
controllers.
Until the 1990s, roughly 90 percent of
the pilots hired by major U.S. carriers
came from the U.S. military with only
ten percent being drawn from civilian
aviation. There is a large worldwide
regional variation in the source of pilot
candidates; in some cases pilots come
only from the military sector; in other
areas few if any pilots come from
military backgrounds. Today however,
hiring percentages have nearly
reversed due to military active duty
training commitments rising from six to
almost twelve years. “Stop-loss”
programs preventing military pilots from
leaving the service and incentive
programs to retain experienced pilots
have also contributed to this trend.
Previously many flight crews were
drawn from the ranks of retired military
personnel with significant military flight
experience and training. In the future
pilots will more than likely be drawn
from civilian flight schools.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Diminished basic airmanship including aircraft
energy management and manual handling skills
among non-military trained pilots
Lack of aircraft system knowledge and diagnostic
skills by air crew
Poor decision making
Inability to operate advanced aircraft in abnormal
situations/attitudes, and recover from
unanticipated situations when there is no checklist
Pilots coming out of glass-cockpit-based training
systems may have difficulty transitioning to lowtechnology commercial transports they may be
assigned to early in their carrier.
There has been an erroneous assumption that the
short, highly focused training that yields skilled
military aviators is also applicable to such
concepts as the Multi-Crew Pilot License.
Declining GA Pilot Population:
NBAA Safety Committee member Steve Charbonneau pointed out that "up until now, nobody
has really put together a safety program that specifically addresses the skill sets required of
business aviation pilots." Today's recurrent training process basically recertifies pilots rather
than teaching them new skills or sharpening old ones. For the last year, the Safety Committee
has been working with industry stakeholders to examine how recertification can be improved.
2014 - The Pilot Pipeline Program gives Tulsa, Oklahoma's Spartan students the opportunity for
employment as a commercial pilot at American Eagle Airlines. Students selected to enter the
American Eagle First Officer Training Program will receive a $10,000 signing bonus for a twoyear commitment and a guaranteed interview with American Airlines for future career
development. With the competition for trained pilots increasing as many of the nation’s pilots are
reaching the required retirement age of 65, national airlines are starting to fill those positions with
pilots from regional airlines, according to Spartan College president Peter Harris.
The screening program for military pilot candidates performs an important function in identifying
individuals who have the skill set for flying. This screening process weeds out a lot of unqualified
individuals. Screening processes for civilian crew may not be able to afford this luxury if the
desire is to quickly qualify the large number of commercial pilots needed in the future. The
regular flying that happens in the military sector during training and operational missions has only
a limited parallel in the civilian air transport arena.
See also, Bent, John, “Future Needs – Pilot Selection & Training: Some contemporary airline
challenges,” 2011; International Association of Flight Training Professionals
http://iaftp.org/wp-content/uploads/papers/Bent-Future_Needs_Pilot_Selection_and_Training.pdf
Airlines have traditionally recruited from
other sectors of the industry rather than
training for their needs. Rarely have
they actively engaged the general
aviation training sector to formulate a
strategic approach to developing a skills
base and career structure. Gap: The
absence of an industry-wide policy
providing a road map of requirements,
skills, selection or promotion of aviation
as a career.
Handbook of aviation human factors By John A. Wise, V. David Hopkin, Daniel J. Garland



http://airfactsjournal.com/2012/10/mayday-thedeclining-pilot-population/
International supply and demand for U. S. trained commercial airline pilots, Jan W. Duggar,
Holy Family University, Brian J. Smith, Jacksonville University, Jeffrey Harrison,
Jacksonville University
Each year, approximately 3,000 new student pilots are accepted for military flight training.
Each flight-training candidate must have a college degree and have completed the officer
training specific to their branch of the service. Additionally, they must pass a battery of
physical, psychological, and motor skill tests prior to beginning initial flight training.
Rasmussen refers to skills, rules and knowledge; see (Rasmussen, J. 1986. Information,
Processing and Human-Machine Interaction, North-Holland Publishing Company,
Amsterdam) of human performance to describe and explain human performance. In this
context, skills are like operating the gear shift/clutch in a car, rules are the checklists or
better memory items, while knowledge refers to warnings that cannot be readily understood
but need to be interpreted.
Learmount, David, IN FOCUS: Loss of control - training the wrong stuff? Flightglobal, January
2012
To address this issue, Airbus is launching a revised training program that “… takes pilots back to
basics with the A350.” The first three days in the A350 simulator will be about letting the pilots
find out that it is "just another aeroplane". Without using any of the sophisticated flight guidance
systems they will be able to find out how it flies and what that feels like. See:
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/learmount/2012/09/airbus-takes-pilots-back-to-ba.html
Page 61 of 110
200
OP
PE
RS,
T
200. Increased
dependence on
synthetic training
in lieu of fullrealism simulators
NOTE: Related to
188
A part task trainer (PTT) is a training
device that is designed to train a
member of the aircrew or maintenance
staff on a particular task associated with
the aircraft. Various providers have
designed and developed part task
trainers for a range of tasks including:

Avionics systems.

Systems familiarization.

Health monitoring systems, and

A variety of complex tasks specific
to a particular aircraft.
Part-task simulators can be used for
crew training for preflight checks,
normal and abnormal/failure operations
primarily when using the autopilot.
Software MUST be totally accurate.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Part-task trainers and limited range of motion
high-fidelity simulators may not sufficiently
emulate loss-of-control situations to enable
effective upset recovery training.
Negative transfer of training due to the lack of
fidelity with the actual operational environment.
For certain accident types, training may not help;
aircraft changes may well be necessary.
Poorly modeled aircraft dynamics and control
laws. Upset prevention (via recognition) may
improve using part-task simulators, but actual
ability to recover from unusual attitudes may
worsen.
Airline crews learning tricks to fly the simulator
and pass competency checks
Unrealistic handling in strong or gusty crosswinds
However, some simulators may be particularly effective
in training for recognition and early detection of the
conditions preceding loss of control situations.
Implementation may be more widespread due to lower
cost of part-task trainers.
There is a risk of pilot training in aircraft handling,
including loss of engine power and asymmetric flight
being carried out on the aircraft rather in flight than in
full flight simulator. Control of an aircraft near V1 on
the ground or at low altitude after take off cannot be
adequately simulated at higher altitudes.
Level D full flight simulators (FFS) are not needed for all areas of pilot training and other PTTs
can more than adequately serve their purpose fully when it comes to providing what is needed.
Notes on hazards shown:
1. Many argue the merits of an FFS device. Some will argue the lack of adequate or sufficient
‘realism’ for training some more specialized events, such as URT or LOC-I. The reality is that
simulation will always have the limitation of gravity or the lack of it to be more precise. We will
never train for Upset Recovery Training (URT) in a flight simulator with g-feedback. It’s just not
possible. We can however train procedure and imprint recovery.
For proper G-force feedback the pilot will have to use a real aircraft and most airlines will not
want to expose their valuable assets to the risks associated with that training. That’s how we
ended up with full flight simulators.
2. This will always be the case. Newer technology full flight simulators will be a problem. With
respect to flight data packages, the simulation will have its limits. Should a user wish to program
events beyond the modeled environment the computer will respond as it always has, GIGO.
3. Again, g-feedback is not a possibility in FFSs. The fact a pilot may overload or exceed stress
tolerances during an upset recovery remains a possibility. The broad range of potential LOC-I or
Upset scenarios makes it difficult to establish a one-size-fits-all strategy. Why modeled aircraft
dynamics and control laws would miss the scrutiny of an approval process for certification is
unclear. Most simulator test and evaluation pilots have not experienced this problem.
4. This goes back to years of fostering an attitude among pilots that the PTS standard breeds an
attitude among airline pilots who only want to train for their test and only want to pass the test.
Many airline pilots say they don’t want to know anything but what’s on the test. With greater
fidelity in simulation today, it is less likely a pilot can or is able to ‘learn tricks’ to fly a simulator to
pass a checkride.
5. The requirement for simulator certification of crosswinds is 15% of the demonstrated
crosswind component for the real aircraft. Like any computer, once again, GIGO. If an instructor
inputs a crosswind that goes beyond the 15% factor in the simulator data package it will produce
unrealistic handling in strong gusty crosswinds. Pilots need to respect the crosswind limitations
of their aircraft as recommended by the OEM.
http://www.cae.com/en/military/part.task.trainer.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_simulator
www.dibley.eu.com/HDRAeSSimLctrRAeSBrough-11feb09nxpS.ppt (2009)
http://flightsafety.org/asw/oct11/asw_oct11_p36-39.pdf
Importance of Maintaining V2 in the Climb: D228, vicinity Kathmandu Nepal, 2012 (LOC HF)
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/D228,_vicinity_Kathmandu_Nepal,_2012_(LOC_HF)?utm_s
ource=SKYbrary&utm_campaign=7447a5c9edSKYbrary_Highlight_04_07_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e405169b04-7447a5c9ed276463842
Page 62 of 110
202
PE
RS
AU
202. Shortened and
compressed type
rating training for
self-sponsored
pilot candidates
NOTE: Related to
188 & 200
Send to Allan!
For many airline pilots, the training and
education process to become qualified
to operate an aircraft can be a grueling
one. As a result of self-sponsored
candidate preferences, certain Aircraft
Training Organization (ATO) offer an
accelerated type rating. Accelerated
flight training helps pilots get their type
rating more rapidly. There are many
flight schools in the United States and
around the world that offer this kind of
training.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
Emergency/abnormal scenarios are being
combined together, even though the events are
extremely unlikely to occur together based on the
operational record
Recent accident scenarios are emphasized and
"Routine" flight operations are being underemphasized
More training is being added without analyzing the
current curriculum to remove unnecessary or
redundant segments
Shortened type rating may not provide
opportunities to detect weaknesses in basic pilot
skills among the candidates.
A pilot enrolled in an accelerated flighttraining program will be going through
rigorous training day in and day out.
There will be training for a few hours
each and every day. During this
training, the pilots will complete different
types of training similar to traditional
flight schools such as in-class
education, ground flight simulators and
exams. There are also in-flight air
lessons with the qualified pilot
instructors. The instructors will see if
the pilot students are ready for the next
step. – modify?
One of the reasons pilot training needs to undergo a major overhaul is the reality that more
efficient and effective use of training devices and training time is needed. We can train smarter if
the investment in revamping the way we do things is undertaken by training providers.
Comment from experienced training pilot with respect to hazards listed:
1. This is a reality for some. It is old school and rarely contributes to positive learning or changes
in behavior. To overload a pilot is to gain nothing in return. Very few pilots can take on those
levels of combined failures. The QANTAS A380 engine incident last year involved 4 pilots. All
Captains with lots of experience who collectively managed the very difficult and demanding task
of getting the aircraft safely on the ground. There were no guarantees. It would be highly unlikely
that a crew during a training event would have that benefit. Multiple failures usually foster a lack
of confidence and a feeling of inadequacy. Those using this approach to training are not only
wasting valuable training time but generating negative learning and a loss of confidence for their
crews. An opportunity missed.
The good news is that the number of those using this approach is decreasing.
2. The reality of industry paranoia dictates what should and shouldn’t be done in pilot training.
When an accident occurs, the investigators supply industry with a number of recommendations
that eventually find their way into recommended training. The Dash 8 accident in Buffalo has set
off a fire storm in stall recognition and recovery. The effort made in this area has been
monumental. While it was obviously needed it was probably needed because of over
zealousness on the part of PTS misinterpretation for decades on what the minimum loss of
altitude actually meant. Of late, LOC-I has taken the spotlight and industry is now bending over
backward to address the issue. What has not changed in our industry is the fact that pilots, other
than military, do not receive or require training outside the normal flight envelope. While statistics
in a particular event have risen, the event (LOC) rightfully receives industry focus and now the
need for remedy moves to the forefront. This will lead to additional training costs and again, how
keen will the airlines be when their assets are exposed to such risky events. I believe most pilots
don’t undertake the training on their own for that reason alone.
3. Beyond the normal pilot training curriculum with the number of accident investigations
resulting in recommendations that require additional training we’re finding training time at a
premium. Each training session is four hours duration. A typical type-rating course is 32 hours.
Broken down into 8 four-hour sessions. With the additional recommendations for training events
within these four-hour blocks will have to be glossed over or omitted. When conducting
‘approved’ training this can be problematic in that the student doesn’t cover the ‘approved’
syllabus. Does that student benefit from full and complete training as a result? Where does the
new training requirement fit in? Looking at decreased manual piloting skills as an example. It
can be argued that the simulator is a simulator and not the real aircraft. Control loading in a
simulator may contribute to improved manual flying skills but it is unlikely in the real airliners that
passenger comfort will be allowed to suffer just to accommodate this deficiency. It poses a
problem that will still have to be addressed. How?
In essence, it is a regular flight school
compressed in a shorter period of time.
Furthermore, there is more one on one
time where the pilot gets private
lessons from experienced pilot
instructors. An accelerated training
program for type rating qualification
meets all the requirements from the
official airline organizations and airline
government organizations that
determine the pilot training and
education requirements.
Pilot type training is driven by the PTS requirements for the issuance of a type rating. The PTS
does not take into account the wide variations in aircraft types. Type rating training is geared to
meeting the PTS requirements and the successful completion of the type checkride. There is
little or no space in the current type rating training curriculum for the additional recommendations
of the NTSB and FAA following the recent rash of aircraft accidents, especially LOC. This type of
training recommended by these agencies is additional cost and would require specialty training.
Simulator training time is also becoming
more compressed in order to save time
and money. Pilots can only log certain
types of simulator time.
With regard to Upset/LOC, presently most TRTOs do not provide this kind of specialty training
and it would require several things on the part of the TRTO. Instructors would have to be taught
Upset Recovery, certified as Upset Recovery Instructors and a specialty course designed for
these newly qualified instructors to instruct. In the case of one manufacturer it is unlikely that this
TRTO will take this on. This is a licensing issue and something that should be addressed during
the initial phase of pilot training before they show up at our organization for type training. This
may be the case with other major manufacturers as well.
A sub-category of MCPL?
This kind of specialty training should be left to the individual airlines to provide their crews.
Page 63 of 110
www.casa.gov.au/corporat/riskreport.pdf
The introduction of new ‘direct entry’ training regimes and the integration of personnel into
existing operational environments
http://commercialpilotsalary.net/what-is-accelerated-flight-training/
205
PE
RS
OP
205. Operational
tempo and
economic
considerations
affecting flight
crew alertness
NOTE: See also 261
Future flight operations might increase
the risk of increased fatigue of flight
crews. This may result from:

ultra long range flights with
minimum crew
harmonized European
legislation allowing longer
flight duty times
increased regional operations
an associated low pilot
salaries
increased pressure on crews
to improve economics
passenger and crew
screening requirements
It is essential that all flight
crewmembers remain alert and
contribute to flight safety by their
actions, observations and
communications.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Impaired performance: delayed, erroneous or
chaotic responses to normal stimuli
Reduced ability for the human pilot to process
complex information and cope with the
unexpected. It is when the automation fails or
evidences unexpected behavior that the human
needs to step in. Fatigue dramatically
compromises the ability of the flight crew to
perform as needed in off-nominal conditions.
Automation mode confusion.
Reduced alertness
Adverse physiological consequences: stressors
affecting alertness
Adverse effects of long commutes on flight crew
performance
Reversions to “fight-or-flight,” panic or freeze
instinctive self-preservation behaviors in
emergency situations; reflexive response to
stimulation
Failure to report errors and omissions arising from
fatigue that do not necessarily result in reportable
incidents
Poor environmental characteristics of crew rest
areas in aircraft
A recent FAA Office of Inspector General report found
that pilots might not be reporting all instances of
fatigue. The report noted that, of 33 air carrier pilots
interviewed by OIG researchers, 26 (79 percent) said
that, at some time, they had been fatigued while on
duty; nevertheless, only eight pilots notified their air
carrier of their condition. Among the reasons cited for
not reporting fatigue was the fear of “punitive action
from their employers.”
Fatigue, sleep apnea, improper use of medications and many other aeromedical issues are
currently being addressed by the NBAA Fitness for Duty Working Group. Fatigue is affected
by length of flight and duty time, light exposure, and stresses outside of work. It can reduce a
pilot's capacity for work, reduce efficiency of accomplishment, and is usually accompanied by
feelings of weariness and tiredness. Fatigue is dangerous because pilots are not able to
reliably detect their personal degree of impairment due to fatigue.
August 2013 Flight Safety Information
Saddled with debts from college and pilot training costs, regional airline pilots often endure an
intense flight schedule of short hops and get paid on an hourly basis. These meager hourly
pay scales apply to regional airline pilots, who are paid only from the time the airline leaves the
gate to the time it arrives at the destination. I many cases they are on the clock on average
about 22 hours per week. For a first-year regional airline co-pilot that translates into gross
weekly pay of $500 per week. For a pilot with 10 years' experience, the weekly gross paycheck
might be around $1,300. These wages don't nearly reflect the hours that regional airline co-pilots
and pilots have to put into the job. Although they may only be on the clock a little more than 20
hours per week or 85 hours per month, pilots typically are away from base, and from their
families, about 240 to 300 hours per month (or about 60 to 75 hours a week)," according to the
Airline Pilots Association. For the lowest paid pilots at some regional airlines, this imbalance
works out to $8.50 an hour for a 60-hour work week.
NTSB Most Wanted item: Address Human Fatigue
http://www.ntsb.gov/safety/mwl-1.html
http://aeromedical.org/Articles/Pilot_Fatigue.html
The new maximum flight duty regulations impose a hardship on crewing numbers for operators.
First of all, it means operators will have to recruit additional pilots at a time when regulations
impose stiffer entry level qualifications for Part 121 flight crew, and at time when retirements are
about to increase. The interesting thing in all of this, the number of airlines looking for new hires
all at the same time in numbers we haven't seen before. A good idea at a time when it may be
more difficult to implement than we care to admit.
In the US, flight duty time limits can be traced back to the days of early air-mail flight schedules.
These antiquated rules are being re-evaluated.
http://flightsafety.org/asw/oct11/asw_oct11_p40-43.pdf
Page 64 of 110
218
PA
SS
T,
AU
218.
Supplementary
passenger
protection and
restraint systems
Supplementary passenger protection
and restraint systems, like passenger
airbags and smoke hoods, are being
developed. Some of theses systems
have been adopted by general and
business aviation and may eventually
find their way onto airliners. New
requirements for increased passenger
safety may also force these changes.
For instance, the inflatable lap belt
concept will rely on electronic sensors
for signaling and a stored gas canister
for inflation.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
Devices could be susceptible to inadvertent
activation, causing deployment in a potentially
unsafe manner.
Rescue crews may inadvertently trigger gas
generators used for air-bag-type protection
systems.
Rocket-propelled recovery parachutes in some
aircraft may be accidentally triggered by rescue
crews or may explode in post-crash fires.
The consequences of inadvertent deployment as well
as failure to deploy must be considered in establishing
the reliability of the system. Manufacturers must
substantiate that the effects of an inadvertent
deployment in flight either would not cause injuries to
occupants or that such deployment(s) meet the
requirement of Sec. 25.1309(b). The effect of an
inadvertent deployment on a passenger or
crewmember that might be positioned close to the
inflatable lap belt should also be considered.
Page 65 of 110
Part 121: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-06-17/html/2011-15094.htm
Child restraints: http://cmm.amsafe.com/CMM/25-27-XX/25-27-01REV3.pdf
Part 23: http://www.vanbortel.com/pdfs/amsafe_info.pdf
220
PA
SS
OP
220. Increasing
functionality and
use of personal
electronic devices
by passengers and
flight crew
Functions and use of personal
electronic devices by passengers and
flight crew are increasing and there are
no means to ensure that passengers
turn off all electronics in critical phases
of flight and disable transmit/receive
functions while on the aircraft.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
It is estimated by CISCO Systems that
by 2015 data traffic on mobile devices
will increase 26 times above the 2010
levels.
In 2010, 3 million tablets were
connected to the mobile network, and
each tablet generated 5 times more
traffic than the average smartphone. In
2010, mobile data traffic per tablet was
405 MB per month, compared to 79 MB
per month per smartphone.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Degradation or failure of flight-critical firmware and
hardware.
Interference with avionics in aircraft on active runways
due to permissive use of devices within aircraft having
just exited active parallel runways (by passengers in
arriving aircraft).
Flight crew distraction due to their own personal or
company provided cell phones, laptops or tablet devices.
Passenger distraction during critical phases of flight due
to pre-occupation arising from interaction with personal
electronic devices or people at the other end of the
conversation; failure to pay attention to safety briefings
by cabin crew.
Anecdotal evidence of:
a.
Inadvertent activation of cabin smoke
detection systems due to cell-phone
signals upon receiving a call (resulting
in unnecessary diversions).
b.
FMS interference due to iPhone not
being in “Airplane Mode”
Passenger discontent with double standard applied to
use of identical consumer electronics in the flight deck
(e.g., iPad EFB’s) and in the passenger cabin.
Personal electronics manufactured abroad may not meet
FCC standards. These are being brought into the
country on international flights (knockoffs and copies of
U.S. products).
Potential viruses and other malware from electronic
upgrades to avionics software and firmware.
PED spurious emissions can couple into aircraft radio
receivers directly through the receiver antenna.
Primary concern is from intentional PED transmitters
a.
Mobile phones, wireless RF network
radios, wireless PDAs, two-way pagers,
walkie-talkies
b.
Effective radiated powers range from a
few milliwatts to several watts
Aircraft systems have a wide range of immunity to
backdoor RF coupling.
For flight decks equipped with touch-screen interfaces,
severe turbulence may reduce the ability of the pilot to
make accurate data entries due to the inertia of the handarm in response to gross vehicle movements.
The wide variety of transmission sources and their potential
locations within the passenger cabin make it very difficult to
predict all possible effects and failure if the High Intensity
Radiated Field (HIRF) threat is found to be drifting toward
unacceptable field strengths.
Too much to do without enough time, tools or resources leads to the inability to focus on what
really matters, often precluding appropriate assessment of risk as well as proper threat and
error management. Achieving and maintaining situational awareness while under pressure is
key for successful business aviation operations to occur.
As saturation increases, performance decreases and the number of errors increases; these
problems can be compounded by fatigue. When experiencing task saturation, a pilot may
begin shutting down or compartmentalizing. The pilot may completely stop performing or begin
acting sporadically and continuously reorganizing but not producing any effective results.
June 16, 2013: Time to Look at Pilot Reliance on Portable Devices?,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323844804578531001814262398.html; During
a ground test of some Wi-Fi technology more than two years ago, a number of Honeywell-built
displays on a Boeing 737 flickered and blanked out briefly from a nearby power source
simulating especially powerful Wi-Fi signals. Lasting only seconds, the outages nevertheless
raised red flags among air-safety officials and spurred coverage by various industry publications.
As of January 7, 2013, the FAA has established a Portable Electronic Device Aviation
Rulemaking Committee; charter at:
http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/rulemaking/committees/documents/media/PED.Charter.1
1.8.12.pdf
Industry foresees significant growth in all its connectivity business segments. Already signed
represent several hundred aircraft and demands for connectivity services is continuously
increasing across all continents, A very large number of airlines and VIP & government aircraft
operators are also expressing the same interest in connectivity services onboard their fleet
across all regions.
http://www.onair.aero/faqs
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c
11-520862.html
ASRS Database Report Set - Passenger Electronic Devices: A sampling of incident reports
referencing passenger electronic devices; http://asrs.arc.nasa.gov/docs/rpsts/ped.pdf
High-Intensity Radiated Fields (HIRF) Risk Analysis, July 1999, Final Report, DOT/FAA/AR99/50
Office of Aviation Research Washington, D.C. 20591
Aircraft and Administration Portable Electronic Devices – A New Approach Seattle EMC Chapter
Meeting
Dave Walen, FAA Regulation and Certification, Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor - Lightning
and Electromagnetic Interference, March 25, 2008
http://www.foxbusiness.com/2012/01/10/airplane-cellphone-ban-remains-matter-public-safety/
Some aircraft are equipped with a Cursor Control Display (CCD) on the centre console. The
palm of the hand fits cleanly on top of it and one can squeeze the palm around it while using the
index finger to control the cursor movement and selections much like a mouse, between screen
displays if touch screens become impractical due to turbulence.
Page 66 of 110
McCaskill to Introduce Bill to Expand In-Flight Use of PEDs – March 11, 2013
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/topstories/McCaskill-to-Introduce-Bill-to-Expand-In-Flight-Useof-PEDs_78708.html#.UT4-KI6X9eU
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) said she will begin drafting legislation to expand the use of
personal electronic devices (PEDs) on commercial airline flights in the United
States. McCaskill, who sent a letter last week to FAA Administrator Michael Huerta alerting
him to the legislation, is looking to allow passengers to use PEDs such as iPads and e-readers
during all phases of flight; the legislation will not apply to cell phones. Current FAA regulations
require aircraft operators to determine that radio frequency from PEDs do not interfere with
aircraft navigation or communication systems prior to authorizing them for use during certain
phases of flight. FAST_AoCs_04102014 1.docx
221
222
223
SP
AC
E
SP
AC
E
SP
AC
E
OP
221. Introduction
of sub-orbital
commercial
vehicles
AU
222. Standards and
certification
requirements for
sub-orbital vehicles
OP,
AU
223. Increasing
frequency of
commercial and
government space
vehicle traffic
The emerging industry of sub-orbital
vehicles (i.e.: Virgin Galactic, XCOR,
Astrium, etc), the operational
characteristics of future sub-orbital
vehicles may require adoption of
different ATM approaches for aircraft
sharing the same airspace. First flights
are targeted for 2014.
In addition to responding to the space
tourism market, these commercial
vehicles will also offer research
platforms for minutes long sustained
micro gravity and remote sensing
experiments.
In Europe, EASA is working to identify
the best approach to accommodate
sub-orbital flights into the European
Aviation Regulatory System.
Developments are taking place,
however, it is uncertain which
regulatory approach will be pursued for
this emergency industry.
Establishment of commercial
spaceports in areas such as New
Mexico is underway. Rapid, routine
clearances for penetration of flight
levels (typically utilized by commercial
aircraft) may be required by expendable
launch vehicles, re-usable launch
vehicles, and commercial space
operations.
The number of spaceports to
accommodate the emerging sub-orbital
industry is proliferating around the
world. In the USA, (e.g.: New Mexico,
Mojave – California, etc), in Europe
(Sweden, Spain, UK,
Netherlands/Curacao, etc), in Australia,
in Asia (i.e.: Singapore), in Middle East
(i.e.: Abu Dhabi). In the majority of the
cases, the operations of these vehicles
will be similar to conventional aircraft
with horizontal landings and take-offs,
however, other configurations exits.
Mid
1.
Inadequate normal and emergency procedures for
coordination with conventional air-breathing
vehicles
Given the increasing number of players in this
emergent industry, ATM aspects (including operations
and new systems to accommodate this new type of
vehicles) for nominal and emergency procedures will
need to be reviewed and evaluated in any future
scenario.
Near
1.
2.
Mid
Design features or operating practices resulting in
a serious or fatal injury
Failure to implement certification requirements in
a timely manner due to pushback from industry.
In the USA, the Commercial Space Launch
Amendment Act (CSLAA) aimed to promote the
development of emerging commercial human space
flight industry is to postpone the ability by the FAA, to
issue safety standards and regulations, except for
aspects of public safety, until December 23, 2012, or
until an accident occurs.
1. Re-entry trajectories that have not been predicted
accurately in emergency situations. These
procedures will need to be coordinated with
destination and alternate airports
2. Inadvertent penetration of restricted airspace in
both normal and abnormal situations.
3. Inadequate airspace buffers during transition from
an exploratory development phase with paying,
risk-accepting passengers to a phase where
certification requirements reach air transport
levels
4. Increased incidents of loss of separation between
space and air traffic in non-segregated operations
(currently, the target for designers and operators).
Page 67 of 110
Webber, D. “Space Tourism: Its History, Future and Importance”, 2nd IAA Conference on Private
Human Access to Space, 2011
Von der Dunk, F. G., “The integrated Approach – Regulating private human spaceflight as space
activity, aircraft operation and high-adventure tourism”, 2nd IAA Conference on Private Human
Access to Space, 2011
ACCOMMODATING SUB-ORBITAL FLIGHTS INTO THE EASA REGULATORY SYSTEM,
Jean-Bruno Marciacq; Yves Morier, Filippo Tomasello, Zsuzsanna Erdelyi, Michael Gerhard
Marciacq, J-B, Morier, Y., Tomasello, F., Erdelyi, Z. and Gerhard, M., “Accomodating Sub-Orbital
Flights into the EASA Regulatory System”, 2008 & 2010 (papers).
nd
Sgobba, T and Trujillo, M., “ESA Human Rating Tailoring for Sub-Orbital Vehicles”, 2 IAA
Conference on Private Human Access to Space, 2011
th
Material from: 14 FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference
http://www.spaceportamerica.com/
The next chapter in space transportation is being written right now in the State of New Mexico.
Forward-thinking pioneers are developing both vertical and horizontal launch vehicles using the
power of free-market enterprise.
As the world’s first purpose-built commercial spaceport, Spaceport America is designed with the
needs of the commercial space business in mind. Unique geographic benefits, striking iconic
design, and the tradition of New Mexico space leadership are coming together to create a new
way to travel into space.
http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2011/10/02/aircraft-are-vulnerable-to-small-space-debris/
http://www.hobbyspace.com/SpacePorts/spaceports3.html
http://www.sti.nasa.gov/tto/spinoff1998/ttc1.htm
225
226
SP
AC
E
MR
O
AU,
OP
EN
V,
PE
RS
225. Entry into
service of
commercial, spacetourism passenger
vehicles
226. Changes in the
qualifications of
maintenance
personnel
Commission on the Future of the United
States Aerospace Industry made
special note of the promise of public
space travel. The demand will rise
without limit as the price drops. The
Commission suggested that space
tourism markets might help fund the
launch industry through its current
market slump. Increased launch
demand thanks to space tourism could
help drive launch costs down, they
concluded, perhaps ultimately support a
robust space transportation industry
with "airline-like operations."
The shortage of certified maintenance
personnel may result in lower quality
servicing and maintenance of aircraft
with a concomitant reduction in the
reliability of both new and aging aircraft.
Servicing of advanced avionics will
require specialized skills, yet training in
disciplines such as composite material
repair, nondestructive inspection, solidstate electronics/avionics/built-In test
equipment, principles of troubleshooting
and human factor is currently only an
option within maintenance training
curricula. As the number of noncertified staff increases, the need to
check their work increases.
Mid
1.
2.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
Vehicle reliabilities not of the same order of
magnitude as those of commercial aircraft.
Impact between deorbiting debris and commercial
aircraft. In the case of the Columbia disaster the
probability was at least one in a thousand, and the
chance of an impact with a general aviation
aircraft was at least one in a hundred. The
analysis used the current models which assume
that any impact anywhere on a commercial
transport with debris of mass above 300 grams
produces a catastrophic accident:
http://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/commission-on-the-future-of-the-united-statesaerospace-industry
Acceptance of poor quality work either because of
time limitations or because errors are not
detected.
Reduction in the availability of certified
maintenance personnel due to tightening of
controls on maintenance procedures, limitation of
working hours, vision tests, etc.
Reduction in the number of experienced
maintenance inspectors.
2014 - reports from The Boeing Company and the International Civil Aviation Organization that
point to an anticipated shortage in skilled aviation -professionals are good news. Both reports
predict that as global economies grow, tens of thousands of new commercial jetliners are
produced and skilled workers retire, the demand for trained aviation maintenance technicians will
also grow exponentially. In fact, Boeing anticipates more than 600,000 airline maintenance
technicians will be needed worldwide by 2031. Redstone College, one of the nation’s premier
technical and aviation schools, works directly with organizations like the FAA and Lockheed
Martin to help fill this need. Redstone College works in partnership with the FAA, as well as
companies like Lockheed Martin, to build its curriculum to meet the demands of highly technical
and demanding careers in airframe & power plant (A&P) and advanced electronics/avionics
(aviation electronics). More than 50 percent of the time students spend takes place in a
sophisticated lab environment where students receive hands-on training that prepares them to hit
the ground running once they are hired.
For a space tourism industry to be viable, flight rates about two orders of magnitude higher than
those required for conventional space lift would be mandatory. That translates into a paradigm
shift; a culture change in rethinking and redesigning all the major components of a space plane
system.
http://www.spacefuture.com/vehicles/designs.shtml
http://www.aviationtoday.com/am/categories/bga/Are-Contract-Maintenance-WorkersSafe_380.html
Contrarian viewpoint:
http://www.pcc.edu/resources/academic/programreview/documents/AMTProgramReview2011.pdf
Shortages in certified personnel do not have to result in the acceptance of poorer quality work,
but which organizational entity drives this acceptance? Management cutting costs? (e.g., hiring,
training)
However, fewer people may offset by better processes.
Some of the potential issues may be due to outsourcing? That is, once work is outsourced is
there adequate oversight by the operator and regulator?
Page 68 of 110
230
MR
O
OR
G
230. Paradigm shift
from paper based
to electronic-based
maintenance
records and
databases
In the future complex, integrated aircraft
will require more and more automation
for fault detection, diagnosis, and
resolution. In addition, new diagnostic
and prognostic safety analysis will
require electronic tracking of
maintenance findings and actions.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Degradation in maintenance quality of legacy
aircraft which were previously paper-based but
are transitioning to a computerized format
Inappropriate skill sets among maintenance
personnel because of changing processes, tools,
and techniques to support the new computerized
systems
Poor task verification processes
Lack of coordination between maintenance and
flight crews
Disconnect in processes for handling the formal
aircraft log; manual, via automation, or ?
Failure of processes to fully inform crew of
inadequate pre-flight aircraft status due to new
electronic log entry formats; mismatches between
manual, paper logs and electronic logs
As with any digital system, it is not enough to
make “digital” copies of paper (scanning, PDFs).
It is critical to build in “smart” tags, indexes and
cross-references so information can be navigated
and “found.”
Loss of access to existing maintenance
information during transition process to electronic
records.
Cumbersome access to historic maintenance
records required to be kept by aircraft owner.
2013 - Launched in 2008 for the CFM56, the TRUEngine designation provides assurance to
owners, operators, and engine buyers that engines qualified as TRUEngine have been
maintained in the OEM configuration. The program has since been expanded to include CF6,
GEnx and CF34 engines. Independent studies show that engines maintained with OEM parts
and repairs maintain as much as 50% higher resale values compared to engines that include
non-OEM parts or repairs. More than 8,300 engines operated by113 operators have received the
TRUEngine designation.
http://www.geaviation.com/services/truengine-program/
GE OnPoint solutions are customized service agreements tailored to the operational and
financial needs of each customer for any size fleet. These agreements are designed to help
lower the customers' cost of ownership and maximize the use of their assets. Backed by GE's
global support network, OnPoint services may include overhaul, on wing support, new and used
serviceable parts, component repair, technology upgrades, engine leasing, integrated systems
support and diagnostics and integrated systems.
Aero-News Network, April 22, 2013: Digital Techlogs Next Step In Use Of Tablets In MRO: HardCopy Techlogs Replaced By Tablets To Further Reduce Paperwork
In cooperation with the Luxembourg-based company MRX Systems, the BlueEYE system has
been enrolled within JetSupport’s CAMO organization. The main goal of this project was to
reduce the paperwork and improve efficiency in the cockpit and CAMO office. The BlueEYE
system is used by JetSupport for all its continuing airworthiness activities. Customers are offered
an iPad instead of logbooks to fill out their flight data and squawks. The application uses the iPad
functionality and connectivity to secure all required logbook entries. The data is collected by the
application on the iPad, and is made available to the CAMO department through a secured realtime data link. See
http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=1722fb4f-668a-433a-9fb51b029a83d555
See FAA Ac43-9B, http://home.provide.net/~pratt1/ambuilt/ac43-9b.htm
“There is a growing trend toward computerized maintenance records. Many of these systems are
offered to owners/operators on a commercial basis. While these are excellent scheduling
systems, alone, they normally do not meet the requirements of Sections 43.9 or 91.173. The
owner/ operator who uses such a system is required to ensure that it provides the information
required by Section 91.173, including signatures. If not, modification to make them complete is
the owners/operators responsibility and the responsibility may not be delegated.”
Similar to 78, it is not enough to have information technologies and software applications that
support computerized information systems. The implementation requires a lot of preparation and
process knowledge before paper to digital conversion as well as training for its effective use.
Also, similar to 78, There needs to be standard definitions and the solution of technical and
operational issues that can impede good information transfer.
When data flows across organizations, input and buy-in is essential for an understanding of how
data is used and whether it is accurate and useful.
Year of the Tablet, Aviation Week, December 10, 2012
Tablets could be a natural device for disseminating maintenance information.
Page 69 of 110
236
MR
O
T
236. Increasing use
of virtual mockups
for maintenance
training and for
evaluation of
requirements
Merge with 251?
241
PE
RS
MR
O,
OP
241. Operational
tempo and
economic
considerations
affecting fatigue
among
maintenance
personnel
Digital/electronic mock-ups are now
being adopted by the industry as
substitutes for the physical mock-ups.
It should be recognized that the current
digital mock-up capability together with
available human modeling capability
does not permit total
maintenance/assembly task simulation
(perhaps 2-5 years away). While any
safety related risk is low, if a situation is
not recognized during design phase, it
will not emerge or be addressed until
assembly of first aircraft. This results in
a cost/schedule penalty and aircraft
maintainability issues.
As result of increased financial pressure
on airlines over the last 10-15 years
there have been changes in the way
maintenance organizations conduct
their work. The number of maintenance
employees per aircraft has been
reduced significantly even taking into
consideration that the present fleet
demands less maintenance due to
increased quality and more efficient
maintenance programs. Only in
specific maintenance tasks such as
primary flight control work this ratio is
still more or less normal. For almost all
other tasks there are now just spots
checks of 10-15% of the work actually
performed by someone else. Contract
maintenance personnel have economic
incentives to seek out overtime to
maximize their income. A large number
of countries still have not set maximum
duration working times for maintenance
staff like there are for pilots. Due to
tight daytime flight schedules, there is
increasing pressure for nightshift
operations (there is a known safety risk
when working under pressure in night
hours on complicated work) on the
involved maintenance organization.
Near
1.
2.
Maintenance errors arising from differences
between the training environment and real line
operations.
Failure to maintain configuration control between
maintenance simulators and actual aircraft
physical hardware.
http://www.arinc.com/news/2010/02-09-10-maintenance-simulator.html
http://dodreports.com/ada428355
This should not be a hazard if:
5. The use of various levels of simulation are
carefully assessed and used accordingly.
6. Assessment should include testing that ensures
there is no negative transfer of learning from
simulator to operations.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Reduction in staff, economic incentives available
to maintenance technicians plus shifts toward
night schedules for critical maintenance increase
the likelihood of fatigue and maintenance errors.
Due to tight daytime flight schedules, there is
increasing pressure for nightshift operations on
the involved maintenance organization.
Many countries still have not set maximum
duration working times for maintenance staff like
there are for pilots.
Number of maintenance employees per aircraft
has been reduced significantly. Only in specific
maintenance tasks such as primary flight control
work is this ratio is still more or less normal.
Based on aircraft sales forecasts in non-Western
markets, there will be a worldwide shortage of
qualified maintenance personnel.
and fatigue.
Page 70 of 110
Airbus Maintenance Briefing Notes - Human Performance and Limitations;
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/safety_library_items/AirbusSafetyLib_MAINT-HUM_PER-SEQ01.pdf
NTSB MOST WANTED TRANSPORTATION SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS
http://www.ntsb.gov/safety/mwl.html
EVALUATION OF AVIATION MAINTENANCE WORKING ENVIRONMENTS, FATIGUE, AND
HUMAN PERFORMANCE
William B. Johnson Felisha Mason Galaxy Scientific Corporation
Steven Hall Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Jean Watson Federal Aviation Administration
20 January 2001
242
243
OP
AP
AP,
MR
O
OP,
T
242. Increasing
single-engine taxi
operations or taxi
on only inboard
engines of 4-engine
aircraft
243. Novel
technologies to
move aircraft from
gate-to-runway
and runway-togate
The use of one engine out taxi
techniques is on the increase as one
means to reduce fuel burn. These same
techniques have been used in the past,
and concerns have been voiced and
issues have been raised.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
To minimize fuel burn, noise, and
environmental impact novel
technologies to move aircraft from gateto-runway and runway-to-gate will be
introduced. One concept is for tugs to
be replaced by an APU powered motorgenerators that drive the associated
aircraft wheels. Another concept is for
tugs to bring aircraft all the way from
the gate to the runway. WheelTug is a
fully integrated ground propulsion
system for aircraft which puts a high
torque electric motor into the hub of the
nose wheel to allow for backwards
movement without the use of pushback
tugs and to allow for forward movement
without using the aircraft's engines.
WheelTug will drive the aircraft with
power supplied by the onboard APU
(Auxiliary Power Unit). The first version
is being designed for the Boeing 737NG
with delivery expected in 2012.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Excessive jet blast to achieve wheel un-stick
Accidental single-engine take-off (unlikely)
Creation of adverse thermal cycles in engine
components
Failure to develop standard operating procedures
(SOP) and checklists to avoid cancelled take-offs
and/or malfunctions
Increased corrosion on aircraft components on
the side of the non-running engine/propeller due
to absence of propeller propwash as a result of
single-engine taxi. (inadequate performance of
vent systems).
Runway incursions
Ineffective new pilot interfaces
Inadequate visibility from the flight deck
Failure to complete engine run-up and checklists
Damage to nose gear due to frequent
coupling/uncoupling with propulsive tugs (for both
towbar and no-towbar, wheel capture
approaches)
ANALYSIS OF EMMISSIONS INVENTORY FOR SINGLE-ENGINE TAXI-OUT” OPERATIONS;
http://catsr.ite.gmu.edu/pubs/Kumar_Sherry_Thompson_ICRAT_Env_Final.pdf
Green Taxiing – Strategies for Reduced Surface Emissions
Ioannis Simaiakis, Harshad Khadilkar, Regina Clewlow, R. John Hansman and Tom Reynolds
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2014 – The Green Trajectory of an Aircraft Aided During Take-off by Ground-Based System
Using Magnetic Levitation Technology:
Very high air traffic density in the largest airports and in their vicinity involves that the air traffic in
the largest airports and their areas of operations approaches the capacity limits. Such high
density of the air traffic adversely influences the natural environment in the vicinity of the airports
due to the increasing cumulative noise level and the concentration of environmentally hazardous
substances. The increased air traffic density in the airports and their vicinity has also a significant
impact on decreasing the flight safety level, especially during approach and landing operations.
One of the possibilities to improve the situation is to work out innovative solutions aimed at
decreasing the aircraft pollution and improving the transport effectiveness. There are several
technologies that could be applied to reduce the harmful influence of the air transport on the
environment. Novel ideas include for example operation of the aircraft without the conventional
undercarriage system and using the ground based power and supporting systems for takeoffs
and landings. If ground launched technologies that accelerate and “launch” the aircraft into the
air are applied, than the power requirements can be substantially reduced even over the initial
climb phase, as only such power would be needed that is required to maneuver and fly. One of
the major concepts is using magnetic levitation (MAGLEV) technology to support aircraft take-off
and landing. In case of using the magnetic levitation technology, the airframe weight can be
considerably reduced, since the undercarriage system could be lighter or even ignored. The
required engine power is determined by the takeoff phase in which a substantial thrust is
needed. Therefore, if the aircraft could takeoff and start the initial climb phase with the ground
power, the installed power may be reduced, resulting in less weight, less drag and less overall
fuel consumption that leads to emission reduction. These advantages, the lower fuel
consumption and emissions, increase sustainability of the transportation system. Different
conditions of the takeoff give possibilities to shape the trajectory of the initial stage of the aircraft
accent after the takeoff in order to decrease the negative influence on the environment. The aim
of the present work was to determine the optimal conditions of the takeoff and the optimal
trajectory of the initial accent of the aircraft aided in the phase of the take off by the system using
the MAGLEV technology, minimizing the fuel consumption and noise emission. The simplified
algorithm of optimization of the flight trajectory was used in this work; it uses the method of
approximation of the flight path by the third degree polynomial.
Europe Flight Path 2050 document considers ZERO emission for aircraft ground operations as a
goal. These new technologies have to be developed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WheelTug
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2012/02/23/Future-aircraft-may-taxi-without-engines/UPI93021330031322/?spt=hs&or=sn
EGTS (ELECTRIC GREEN TAXIING SYSTEM); http://www.safranmbd.com/systems-equipment178/electric-green-taxiing-system/
Page 71 of 110
244
PA
SS
AU,
T
244. High-density
passenger cabin
configurations
Higher-density passenger cabin
configurations are being explored, such
as standing passengers, to increase the
numbers of passengers that can be
accommodated for short-haul flights.
More passengers generate more
revenue and this approach would
enable higher passenger loads on each
aircraft.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
4.
Lack of or poorly located cabin emergency
equipment
Reduced crashworthiness
Presence of additional combustible or out-gassing
materials in the cabin
Passenger health issues
Page 72 of 110
http://www.airlinetrends.com/category/signs-of-the-economic-times/
High-density cabin configurations for A320;
http://www.airbus.com/aircraftfamilies/passengeraircraft/a320family/a321/
Air France became the first European airline to take delivery of the Airbus A380. Air France will
operate the aircraft – of which it has 12 on firm order – in a three-class 538-seat layout (9 seats
in first, 80 in business and 449 in economy), the highest density A380 configuration sofar.
http://www.airlinetrends.com/2009/11/02/air-france-a380-flagship/
245
AU
OR
G
245. Worldwide
implementation of
SMS
The optimal implementation of SMS is
to use the international industry
guidance material outlining the key
behaviors and processes needed for an
effective SMS. Globally there are
variations in cultural interpretations that
can create significant differences in the
SMS among individual organizations.
FAA Advisory Circular, AC 120-92A,
Safety Management Systems for
Aviation Service Providers, provides a
Framework for Safety Management
System (SMS) development. It
contains a uniform set of expectations
that align with the structure and format
of the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) Framework; and
Aviation Safety (AVS) policy in Federal
Aviation Administration (FAA) Order VS
8000.367, AVS Safety Management
System Requirements, Appendix B.
Challenges in SMS Implementation:

Securing leadership commitment in
performance metrics

Standardization of processes
across the organization

Integrating all components of the
SMS into everyday operations

Promotion efforts

Resource constraints

Resistance to change

Middle-level management
bottleneck

Influencing people and
organizations to accept
accountability
–
Provide a methodology for risk
assessment that is both
quantitative and qualitative,
which increased willingness to
approve and acceptance risk
–
Establishing international
standard definitions for Hazards
and Severities in the operational
areas harmonized with aircraft
design definitions.
–
Establishing international
standards of acceptable levels
of risk that are harmonized with
the aircraft, ATC, and supporting
systems design safety
acceptance criteria.
–
Methodology continues to
mature

Optimizing the relationship with the
regulator
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Failure to align the SMS policy with the working
environment and conditions under which it has actually
been developed resulting in ineffective SMS
implementation.
Misunderstandings that may result between operational
directives and safety policies can diminish the benefits
the SMS is expected to generate.
SMS being implemented solely as a compliance exercise
rather than as a genuine safety enhancement (requires
management commitment).
SMS can be considered a compliance check-the-box
exercise (if it does not identify and intiate Safety
improvements to operations or new changes to
operations).
A potential risk in the implementation of SMS is an
inconsistency between current SMS practices. In the
future, the safety environment may drift away from the
conditions under which the SMS was originally
developed and approved.
The effectiveness of an SMS may be degraded as it
depends not only in the content of the SMS policy
document itself but how each element gets implemented.
An effective SMS must be integrated in an organization’s
processes and all its supplier inputs to those processes,
fully promoted by the management, and executed by
every employee. The safety policy, understood by all
stakeholders, will act as a catalyst for positive change.
Sufficient resources to dedicate continual priority support
of SMS. The effectiveness of SMS implementation is
heavily dependent on provision of corporate resources
for effective training in the use of SMS principles
including assuring that there are a sufficient number of
personnel with the required commitment and skills to
implement an SMS. ICAO hoped to achieve an Initial
Operational Capability for worldwide SMA by 2012, but
implementing organizations may underestimate the
challenges of both changing their safety culture as well
as implementing the required safety indicator feedback
and analysis systems. Related challenges include
identifying the unexpected organizational policy
interdependencies between SMS being adopted among
government agencies and across regulatory/industry
boundaries.
Managers speak the SMS language, but don’t behave
differently - budgets, schedules, and daily routines
potentially take precedence over executing the SMA
process.
Page 73 of 110
The entire organization must align to fully embrace a proactive safety mindset supported by a
just culture and evidenced not only by participation and belief in the culture, but the willingness
to share safety data with fellow aviation professionals.
http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/advisory_circulars/index.cfm/go/document.information/do
cumentID/319228
SMS Implementation Challenges, Mr. Huan Nguyen, Director, Director, SMS Directorate, Office
of Safety, FAA/ATO; April 2009;
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=sms%20implementation%20challenges%2C%20mr.%2
0huan%20nguyen%2C%20director%2C%20director%2C%20sms%20directorate%2C%20office
%20of%20safety%2C%20faa%2Fato&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%
2Fwww.canso.org%2Fxu%2Fdocument%2Fcms%2Fstreambin.asp%3Frequestid%3D1649B032
-385F-40C9-AD4847663F48AD3A&ei=a2FUUbHPGajc2QWaqIGABw&usg=AFQjCNGHiQNQV2c86yyNKh18iu5IG
2tuZg&bvm=bv.44342787,d.b2I
Reference: Review and redevelopment of Aerodrome Safety Management and Aerodrome
Manual Advisory Material
Why Total Quality Management Programs Do Not Persist: The Role of Management Quality and
Implications for Leading a TQM Transformation, Michael Beer, Graduate School of Business
Administration, Harvard University, Fall 2003
http://www.iem.unifei.edu.br/turrioni/PosGraduacao/PQM07/TQM_aula_2_e_3/Why%20Total%2
0Quality%20Management%20Programs%20Do%20Not%20Persist.pdf
246
EN
V
AP
246. World wide
climate change
trending towards
warmer
temperatures
Global average surface temperatures
have risen at an average rate of 0.13°F
per decade since 1901. Since the late
1970s, however, the United States has
warmed at nearly twice the global rate.
Worldwide, 2000–2009 was the
warmest decade on record.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Heat waves
Increased precipitation duration and intensity
More frequent and intensified winds and storms
Rising sea levels and ocean acidity levels
affecting operations of sea level airports
Changed bird migration routes
Numerous studies on climate changes
Source: US EPA (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=114961
There are a number of studies suggesting that global warming may not be as great as estimated.
Several are listed below:
A Climate of Doubt about Global Warming
(Environmental Geosciences, Volume 7 Issue 4, pp. 213, December 2000)
- Robert C. Balling Jr.
A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions (PDF)
(International Journal of Climatology, Volume 28, Issue 13, pp. 1693-1701, December 2007)
- David H. Douglass, John R. Christy, Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred Singer
Analysis of trends in the variability of daily and monthly historical temperature measurements
(PDF)
(Climate Research, Volume 10, Number 1, pp. 27-33, April 1998)
- Patrick J. Michaels, Robert C. Balling Jr, Russell S. Vose, Paul C. Knappenberger
Carbon dioxide forcing alone insufficient to explain Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
warming
(Nature Geoscience, Volume 2, 576-580, July 2009)
- Richard E. Zeebe, James C. Zachos, Gerald R. Dickens
Carbon dioxide forcing alone insufficient to explain Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
warming
(Nature Geoscience, Volume 2, 576-580, July 2009)
- Richard E. Zeebe, James C. Zachos, Gerald R. Dickens
Documentation of uncertainties and biases associated with surface temperature measurement
sites for climate change assessment (PDF)
(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 88, Number 6, pp. 913-928, June
2007)
- Roger A. Pielke Sr. et al.
Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (PDF)
(Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, Volume 12, Number 3, pp. 79-90, Fall 2007)
- Arthur B. Robinson, Noah E. Robinson, Willie H. Soon
Implications of the Secondary Role of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Forcing in Climate Change:
Past, Present, and Future (PDF)
(Physical Geography, Volume 28, Number 2, pp. 97-125, March 2007), Willie H. Soon
Page 74 of 110
247
T
OP
247. New aircraft
recovery systems in
general aviation
and commercial
aircraft
249
EN
V
OP
249. Increasing
demands for
limited radio
frequency
bandwidth
General aviation companies currently
offer ballistically deployed parachute
recovery systems that can be deployed
by the pilot when under duress.
Manufacturers may one day offer
customers an option based on software
being developed by avionics companies
to take control of an aircraft
automatically and steer it away from
terrain. The BRS consists of a solid
rocket thermite charge, activated by two
shotgun shell igniters within a sealed
compartment located aft of the rear
window. With ultra-light aircraft, the
BRS is attached to the frame. In both,
the BRS points the projectile blast up
and back past the tail section. The BRS
is activated by a quarter inch pull on a
cable as the trigger mechanism.
There are also new flight control
capabilities such as Assisted Recovery
from unusual attitudes and terrain
proximity that automatically perform
terrain avoidance flight control
activation.
The current spectrum of available radio
frequencies for use by commercial and
government entities is limited by
physics and international regulations.
The demands for public-use,
commercial wireless services and
government services are increasing
exponentially with time. Demand for
bandwidth will triple each year.
Near
1.
2.
3.
Flight closer to the edge of the flight envelope due
to overconfidence in protections offered by fullaircraft recovery systems.
Flight into inappropriate meteorological or terrain
conditions due to overconfidence in protections
offered by full-aircraft recovery systems.
Rocket-propelled recovery parachutes in some
aircraft may be accidentally triggered by rescue
crews or may explode in post-crash fires.
If the BRS has been deployed the system itself is not
hazardous, because the explosive and flammable
components are inert. The exhaust and particulate
matter from the explosive activation does represent a
potential inhalation hazard, but those are readily
dissipated by wind. If a BRS-equipped aircraft crashes
without activation, the hazard of an 'unexploded
ballistic charge' exists. First responders must contend
with five pyro-hazardous components of a nondeployed BRS:

One solid rocket charge (powder and magnesium)

Two shotgun shell igniters

Two reefing line cutters
4.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Pilots incorrectly over-riding auto-pull-up systems;
not unlike resisting stick shaker/pusher functions.
Decreased frequency separation between users
Unpredictable effects of closely-spaced
frequencies utilized by different applications
Potential interference by digital packets serving
different applications transmitted on same
frequency; prioritzation failure
UWB devices will likely generate enough
interference to disrupt transmissions of other
frequency users
If UWB does proliferate, its aggregate emissions
could wreak havoc across the spectrum.
Page 75 of 110
As a result of cost reductions and/or entrepreneurial spirit, the necessity to arm pilots with the
tools to safely manage single-pilot operations has become more important than ever. The
Single-Pilot Safety Working Group provides helpful tools and informative resources, including
the annual Single-Pilot Safety Standdown.
Accident rates are consistently higher for single engine piston powered aircraft. Owner flown
aircraft face unique challenges; often a lack of guidance, financial support, and clear
procedures allow the pilot to use personal discretion without a set standard to measure
against.
Using Scenario-Based Training to Teach Single Pilot Resource Management Related to the Use
of the BRS Parachute, Shayna Strally, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL
2005
http://www.faa.gov/training_testing/training/fits/research/media/BRS-SRM.pdf
http://www.singlearticles.com/the-auto-pullup-option-a2675.html
As small aircraft and helicopters have become more complex, technology has provided systems
that have enhanced operational safety. In the event of an accident, many of these systems have
presented additional hazards to first responders or any potential rescuer at an aircraft accident
scene. The FAA, in cooperation with General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA),
various manufacturers and first responder professional organizations, has developed training for
safety at an aircraft accident scene. While the material was initially developed for firefighters,
Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and police, it provides useful information for any persons
that may come across an aircraft accident. http://www.faa.gov/aircraft/gen_av/first_responders/
http://www.masshightech.com/stories/2011/07/04/weekly8-Mobile-bandwidth-crunch-causingconcern-for-innovation-extra-pay.html
http://www.pnt.gov/interference/lightsquared/
This page provides information about potential interference to GPS receivers from the
LightSquared communications network. The main text below was updated July 7, 2011.
This problem may be partially ameliorated by the use of laser data links that are in experimental
demonstration.
Special Report: Ultra Wideband: Killer App or App Killer?
An intriguing wireless digital technology offers to redefine how spectrum is used, but could its
interference cripple other spectrum users?
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/military/Special-Report-Ultra-Wideband-Killer-App-or-AppKiller_12557.html
UWB emissions will negatively impact GPS and FAA radar, and possibly other vital services.
Tests and calculations reveal the deleterious impact UWB will have on restricted band users.
GPS operates at a very low margin above the thermal noise floor and is very susceptible to UWB
impulses upsetting its moderate bandwidth raw data. That is a very serious problem. The
proliferation of UWB systems will compromise the functionality of the Global Positioning System.
250
EN
V
T
250. Shortage of
rare-earth
elements
A growing competition for rare-earth
elements (REEs) could soon hamstring
a wide swath of the aerospace industry
supply chain, from companies that build
precision guided-weapon systems to
suppliers for commercial widebody jets.
The commercial aviation industry has
long relied on REEs because they give
materials enhanced strength and
durability. They are used in everything
from tires, avionics and jet engine
coatings to actuators and airframe
alloys. But demand is beginning to
outstrip supply as more and more of the
elements are needed to support
production of hybrid vehicles, smart
phones and other consumer products.
Ongoing
1.
Production-side hazards to availability of key
components and systems
2014 - As highlighted by the Resource-Efficiency Roadmap and Horizon 2020, the aviation
community should aim to ensure accessibility and availability of raw materials that are needed for
Western economies, whilst achieving a resource efficient economy that meets the needs of a
growing population within the ecological limits of a finite planet.
http://eit.europa.eu/
October 6, 2009: http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/06/rare-earth-metals-markets-commoditiesberry.html
Although their added quantities are not great, the effects are very noticeable and they can be
used as the additives, reducing agents, desulphurization agents, denaturization agents and
regulating agents etc. of metals. Rare-earth metals seem to have excellent effects on nonferrous metal alloys and they can improve the physical and mechanical properties of alloys. They
can be used for many parts of jet engines. They can be used for helicopter structural materials,
transmission castings and engine wheels and gear boxes etc. rare-earth-cobalt compound
particles are a new type of permanent magnet and among them the samarium-cobalt alloy
(SmCo5) has superior magnetic properties and is used to make missile detection accelerators
and praseodymium-cobalt alloys are used to outfit satellites, missiles and radar. Rare-earth
compounds have gained a great deal of attention in modern aviation technology as garnet
materials. For example, yttrium-iron garnets are used in the microwave electronically controlled
instruments of unmanned aircraft, the microwave modulators on insulators of radar and other
communication systems, satellite communications, amplification circulators, wave filters,
microwave integrated circuits and ultra-small wide band oscillators etc.
Manufacturers are also facing
shortages of other basic metals such as
titanium. Re-design of certain
components is necessary because of
this shortage.
New Methodology Assesses Risk of Scarce Metals, Published: February 6, 2012. Yale University
http://www.sciencenewsline.com/nature/summary/2012020618100060.html
Yale researchers have developed a methodology for governments and corporations to determine
the availability of critical metals, according to a paper in Environmental Science & Technology. In
"Methodology of Metal Criticality Determination," the researchers evaluate the importance of
scarce metals using a methodology that determines their supply risk, environmental implications,
and vulnerability to supply restriction.
Page 76 of 110
251
MR
O
PE
RS
251. Introduction
of new training
methodologies for
maintenance staff
IATA Training and Qualification
Initiative (ITQI) for Maintenance is a
recent IATA initiative. It is centered on
competency based training and
assessment. This will require the
definition of competencies. An
approach has been validated through
meetings with OEMs, airline
maintenance and training organizations.
IATA has worked closely with ICAO to
develop this material. The Air
Navigation Council (ANC) was briefed
in January 2010 on the progress.
Ongoing
1.
Lack of ICAO guidance material on how
competency based training can be applied to
maintenance.
Further implementation of new
training methods, such as
Competence Based Training
(CBT) and Evidence Based
Training (EBT), and their inclusion
in ICAO Annex 1 and its
associated documentation, with
particular priority given to the
training of pilots but also
encompassing air traffic controllers
and certifying staff involved in
aircraft maintenance;
b)
A requirement for the holder of an
aircraft type-certificate to provide
the minimum content of the typetraining for pilots and aircraft
maintenance certifying staff, as
part of Operational Suitability Data
(OSD) based on a Training Task
Analysis (TNA), as well as the
results of an operational
evaluation; and
c)
The need to continue the
development of competence
schemes, to be published in
appropriate ICAO documents, for
newly emerging safety-related
professional tasks;
http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/aircraft_operations/Pages/itqi.aspx (bad link)
The competency frameworks were developed with the following assumptions:

Targeted to personnel working within the scope of aircraft and engine maintenance
manuals, structural repair manuals, component maintenance manuals and standard
practices manuals;

Applicable in aircraft line and base maintenance and workshop maintenance; and

Applies to large aeroplanes (>5700 kg) powered by turbine engines and their components
Next Generation of Aviation Professionals - Training and Qualifications of aviation personnel;
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CEYQFjAA&url=htt
p%3A%2F%2Fwww.faa.gov%2Fabout%2Foffice_org%2Fheadquarters_offices%2Fapl%2Fintern
ational_affairs%2Ficao%2Fgeneral_assembly%2Fmedia%2FEurope_NGOFAP_Agenda_Item_4
5.doc&ei=kbm5Uum8IYbS2AXAt4CgAw&usg=AFQjCNE1mj9jqrkrrWkz5fM_7aQS7G__zw&sig2
=qUHNzNPMrABiuQBHOLO5FQ&bvm=bv.58187178,d.b2I
The ICAO Assembly was invited to,
when amending Resolution A36-13 "on
the consolidated statement of
continuing ICAO policies and
associated practices related specifically
to air navigation", to include reference
to:
a)
http://www.icao.int/NGAP/Presentations/IATA%20Training%20and%20Qualification%20Initiative
%20(ITQI)%20–%20Progress%20Report.pdf
Page 77 of 110
252
OP
MR
O
252. Smaller
organizations and
owners operating
aging aircraft
Smaller passenger transport
organizations operating aging aircraft
will need to deal with aircraft aging,
fatigue, and corrosion issues that have
not been encountered before.
The ramifications of this change area
depend on the type of operation. Aging
aircraft maybe covered adequately for
Part 121 commercial operations. The
same aircraft certified under Part 23
(less stringent certification rules) and
operated under Part 135 Commuter and
On-demand Operations, may be treated
differently from an aging aircraft
airworthiness perspective.
Ongoing
1.
2.
Uncertainty about the quantity or type of
maintenance and inspection required to ensure a
high level of safety
Structural failure due to fatigue cracking and
corrosion
The biggest impediments to keeping vintage aircraft
safe are the unavailability of parts and approved data,
together with the near impossibility of getting field
approvals for substitution of modern parts and
materials. These problems are most acute with
"orphaned aircraft" whose type certificate holder has
either disappeared or decided not to support the
aircraft with parts and data.
This was mitigated by certain authorities such as FAA and probably EASA based on the articles
referenced below.
http://www.aasfonline.org/uploads/5/1/9/2/5192988/aging_ga_aircraft.pdf
Aging GA Aircraft, By Mike Busch, AASF, 2006
Alternative viewpoint: The GA fleet is dominated by aircraft manufactured in the 1970s and
1980s, so the average age of the fleet has been increasing by nearly a year per year. If aging
aircraft were a significant safety problem, we would expect to see the accident rates ballooning
as the fleet ages. But we've actually seen the opposite: Both the total GA accident rate and the
rate of maintenance- and mechanical-related accidents have been decreasing steadily over the
past 20 years. Structural failures due to fatigue cracking or corrosion are extremely rare. Over
the past 10 years there has been an average of 3.7 such accidents per year. These represent
less than 2% of mechanical-related accidents, and about 0.3% of all accidents.
This last Article shows some FAA history of changes to Part 23 requirements
that attempts mitigate this AoC.
http://www.aviationpros.com/article/10388973/aging-aircraft
Of the 205,000 fixed-wing GA aircraft
currently flying in the U.S., less than
10,000 are certified under the FAA's
Part 23 rules that require a
manufacturer to perform a fatigue-life
analysis. More than 80% of the fleet
was certified under the old CAR 3 rules
that did not take metal fatigue into
account. Current estimates are that
140,000 of them are more than 30
years old, and 25,000 are more than 50
years old.
One operator’s fleet has the following
characteristics and some seriously
high-time aircraft. They include a
20,000-hour Piper Lance, a 23,000hour Cessna 402B, a 24,000-hour Piper
Chieftain, a 27,000-hour Piper Navajo,
a 30,000-hour Swearingen Merlin III, a
32,000-hour Beech 1900 and a 50,000hour Beech 99. These aircraft have
been worked hard for 20 to 30 years,
sometimes more, and the only time
they're hangared is while undergoing
maintenance. Yet some of these older
aircraft were over-engineered relative to
newer designs.
Page 78 of 110
254
255
PE
RS
AU
MR
O
PE
RS
254. Aging
maintenance
workforce
255. New pilot
licensing standards
Professional representative bodies
indicate that the average age of the
Licensed Aircraft Maintenance
Engineers (LAME) workforce is
increasing, with the average age of
LAMEs reported to be over 50. It is
expected that the retirement rate will
soon start to increase rapidly. Average
age of aircraft maintenance engineer/
technician/engineer in Europe is 40,
and in the US, it is 53 years of age.
(Aviation Week, 2008)
Ongoing
The recent International Civil Aviation
Safety Organization (ICAO) initiative to
introduce a competency-based MultiCrew Pilot License standard and
training syllabus is seen as a positive
step, with regulators supporting this
development. It is recognized that
manual flying skills are being lost
among pilots. The limited
simulator/flight time exposure inherent
in MCPL programs does not provide the
experience to address this problem.
MCPL and improved manual
airmanship – basic IFR manual flying are mutually contradictory. There is no
substitute for actual flight experience in
developing aircraft handling skills.
Near
By a conservative estimate, currently in
India about 5 percent of commanders
on single-aisle jet aircraft … are under
30 years of age. This trend will only
grow," said Capt. R. Otaal, general
secretary of the Indian Commercial
Pilot's Association. For instance, the
rapid expansion of commercial aviation
in India, coupled with the virtual
absence of general aviation, has
combined to create the phenomenon.
1.
2.
3.
Shortage would suggest engineers are at risk of
being overworked in order to maintain existing or
increased tempo of maintenance operations
Errors due to fatigue and related human factors
issues
Degradation of oversight by authorities due to
delegation of inspection by the regulator to the
operator. Limited resources within authorities are
driving this shift.
Safety consequences are difficult to predict. One must
assume that the regulators will take this phenomenon
into account.
Pilots obtaining an MCPL may never have performed a
solo flight though this may not be a factor in the safety
of flight. First officers in commercial twin-jets having
completed an MCPL curriculum may have only 240
hours total simulation and flight time.
MPL enables airlines to train pilots tailored to their
aircraft types and their operations right from the start,
so in a way the MPL course is the ab initio training
equivalent of an ATQP. Pilots may lose flexibility in
moving among airlines due to the limited MCPL
certifications for specific types with an airline.
Many student pilots have serious problems facing their
first type rating on a modern, complex jet. An MPL
prepares the student for precisely this challenge,
whereas the modular route, depending on what
experience the pilot achieves during it, may provide
little or no experience of jets and the speed at which
things happen in them, or of managing sophisticated
flight management and aircraft control systems, and it
is in these aircraft that LOC events have been
occurring.
MCPL will not solve the cultural issues that will remain
despite the new approach to train pilots to CRM from
the outset.
Page 79 of 110
http://www.icao.int/NGAP/Presentations/NGAP%20Beoing%20H.%20Schaeffer.pdf (bad link)
ISBN—978-1-921475-056-4
The overall outlook for Aircraft Mechanics should be favorable over the next ten years. The small
numbers of young workers in the labor force, coupled with a large number of retirements, point to
good employment conditions for students just beginning training.
http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/occguide/mechair.htm
www.casa.gov.au/corporat/riskreport.pdf
What is MCPL?; http://www.age60rule.com/docs/What%20is%20MPL.pdf
Learmount, David, IN FOCUS: Loss of control - training the wrong stuff? Floghtglobal, January
2012
256
MR
O
OP
256. Decreasing
availability of
qualified
maintenance staff
at stations other
than home base of
operation
Increasing financial pressure on airlines
is resulting in steady reductions of
maintenance staff at out stations. As a
result of this phenomenon, flight crew
are increasingly reluctant to report
aircraft defects when away from home
base. Statistics bear this out. A 2009
Airline Engineers International survey
revealed that airlines, including majors
reported inbound defects as high as
94% over only 6% outbound defects.
Until recently, such behavior may have
resulted only in incidents, albeit that
well documented cases are scarce.
This phenomenon may have been a
root cause of at least one recent
accident (Turkish Airlines, Schiphol,
2009).
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Lack of timely servicing of aircraft with potentially
flight-critical component or system problems.
Poor quality aircraft servicing due to hiring of
minimally-qualified staff
Over-reliance on Minimum Equipment List (MEL)
procedures as safety nets
Incorrect information on the MEL within the airline
operation center
Inappropriate release of an aircraft by dispatch.
A 2009 Airline Engineers International survey revealed that airlines, including majors reported
inbound defects as high as 94% over only 6% outbound defects. Until recently, such behavior
may have resulted only in incidents, albeit that well documented cases are scarce.
COMPARATIVE STUDY OF PERSONNEL QUALIFICATIONS AND TRAINING AT AVIATION
MAINTENANCE FACILITIES, Raymond P. Goldsby, Senior Aviation Specialist
Galaxy Scientific Corporation, Technology Information Division and Jean Watson, Program
Manager Aviation Maintenance Human Factors Research Office of Aviation Medicine Federal
Aviation Administration
This is a mostly organizational issue, namely, the consequences of outsourcing on sustaining a
well-qualified workforce in the home company. Some of this may be an organizational issue of
managing a balanced workforce (home versus 3rd party).
Cost-cutting measures are taken for a reason but their consequences should be considered for
both the short and long-term.
Politics and economics should not be considered to be hazards in themselves, but they do
contribute to the situation.
One of the largest contract labor
providers is the process of recruiting
labor from outside the United States.
This organization is currently in the
process of gaining Department of Labor
and Immigration and Naturalization
approval in order to offer jobs and
obtain appropriate visas. One of the
potential sources being investigated is
the UK, where they are also
experiencing a shortage of qualified
aircraft maintenance technicians. Not
only is the contract aircraft technician
labor pool growing and due to the
shortage of qualified candidates, is now
on the brink of becoming an
international issue.
Page 80 of 110
257
OP
AU
257. Reluctance
among operators
to implement
voluntary proactive
safety mitigations
Safety Management Systems work on
the premise that the organizations that
design, build, maintain and operate an
aircraft are responsible for its safety.
Regulators write and enforce laws and
designate themselves as responsible
for aviation safety. These two models
are then at odds with regulators
producing more regulations and
oversight to improve safety and
operators and manufactures taking
responsibility to implement proactive
safety. In the event there is a
discrepancy in corrective actions issued
by a manufacturer and the regulator,
the regulator will consider this a
noncompliance. Therefore, the safest
course of action for an operator is to
wait for the Airworthiness Directive and
comply than to take the risk of
implementing the Manufacturers
Service Bulletin that may not be exactly
the same as the AD with certain
authorities.
Near
1.
2.
3.
Delays in implementing needed safety
enhancements and/or mitigations indicated by inservice data trends due to fear of non-compliance
with regulations and the resulting financial
penalties.
The reluctance by organizations to share data in a
common platform is a major impediment in the
implementation of SMS.
Operators may ignore Service Bulletins from
manufacturers unless backed by a requirement
from the authority. Service Bulletins are often
modified multiple times prior to the release of an
Airworthiness Directive resulting in delays
compromising safety.
The same issue of reluctance to voluntary proactive safety implementation manifests itself
because increasingly so, equivalent safety findings are found not acceptable after which literal
compliance is mandated. This is due to decreasing expertise at the authorities where know-how,
know-why – why are the rules as they are and know where is it written down - is slowly fading
away.
Some non-U.S. regulators simply cite and do not modify the language of the Service Bulletin
when issuing Airworthiness Directive. The FAA rewrites the manufacturer’s Service Bulletin
when drafting the AD to make it legal in the U.S.
ICAO Accident Prevention Programme, 2005
http://www.icao.int/icao/ Shift in the demographics of newly-hired air traffic controllers compared
with retiree skills and interests en/anb/aig/app_20050907.pdf
“Effective accident prevention is not a single function carried out by a designated organizational
element. It needs to be a “way of thinking”, shared by all elements of the organization. The
safest organizations take a systemic approach to accident prevention, organizing and managing
their operations such that they experience proportionally fewer serious occurrences. Safety
management considerations are thus integrated into the organization in the same way that
financial considerations are.”
“…manufacturers are the best source for the overall safety record of a particular aircraft type or
the in-service record of a component.”
“…the major aircraft manufacturers have active safety departments whose roles include,
monitoring in-service experience, providing feedback to the manufacturing process and
disseminating safety information to customer airlines.”
Problems and Solutions in the Implementation of Safety Management Systems; http://www.aciasiapac.aero/upload/event/8/photo/4e12b942691e3.pdf, November 2010
Page 81 of 110
259
PE
RS
AN
S
259. Shift in the
demographics of
newly-hired air
traffic controllers
compared with
retiree skills and
interests
Most new controllers now being hired
have no previous air traffic control
experience, a significant change from
several years ago. The training
process regulators have used for some
time is insufficient given the rapidly
changing demographics of the
controller workforce. One of the
primary goals of technical training and
development programs is to ensure that
air traffic controllers have all the
necessary skills and behaviors to
perform their jobs effectively and
maintain the safety of the NAS.
Regulators are creating an Air Traffic
Basics exam to be offered at approved
testing centers. Selectees for training
would be required to take the exam
within six months before attending
training at an approved academy. A
minimum score of 70 percent would be
required to pass the exam and begin
formal training. Longitudinal study
should be conducted to determine the
predictive value of the entrant
background suitability.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
Recruits may lack instinctive knowledge of
aviation and flying found in retirees as a result of
their aviation-related avocations (hobbies).
Process for selecting and placing new controllers
does not sufficiently evaluate candidates’
aptitudes because certain regulators do not
effectively use screening test results or consider
candidates’ training performance to help
determine facility placement. As a result, new
controller candidates—many of which have no
prior air traffic control experience—are being
assigned to some of the busiest air traffic control
facilities with little consideration of whether they
have the knowledge, skills, and abilities
necessary to become certified controllers at those
locations. (http://www.oig.dot.gov/libraryitem/5306)
Classroom lecture and testing process will make it
easy to learn new material in order to pass the
next test, and then forget the information learned this is described as the “learn and dump”
approach to training.
2013 – Reports from The Boeing Company and the International Civil Aviation Organization that
point to an anticipated shortage in skilled aviation maintenance professionals are good news.
Both reports predict that as global economies grow, tens of thousands of new commercial
jetliners are produced and skilled workers retire, the demand for trained aviation maintenance
technicians will also grow exponentially. In fact, Boeing anticipates more than 600,000 airline
maintenance technicians will be needed worldwide by 2031. Redstone College, one of the
nation’s premier technical and aviation schools, works directly with organizations like the FAA
and Lockheed Martin to help fill this need. Redstone College works in partnership with the FAA,
as well as companies like Lockheed Martin, to build its curriculum to meet the demands of highly
technical and demanding careers in airframe & power plant (A&P) and advanced
electronics/avionics (aviation electronics). More than 50 percent of the time students spend takes
place in a sophisticated lab environment where students receive hands-on training that prepares
them to hit the ground running once they are hired.
FAA Independent Review Panel on the Selection, Assignment and Training of Air Traffic Control
Specialists;
http://www.faa.gov/news/updates/media/IRP%20Report%20on%20Selection%20Assignment%2
0Training%20of%20ATCS%20FINAL%2020110922.pdf
Review of Screening, Placement, and Initial Training of Newly Hired Air Traffic Controllers - April
1, 2010, http://www.oig.dot.gov/library-item/5306 (site not responsive)
FAA 10-Year Strategy for the Air Traffic Control Workforce
2011 – 2020; http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/media/CWP_2011.pdf
http://avstop.com/news/training_failures_among_new_hire_air_traffic_controlers.htm
Page 82 of 110
260
AN
S
OP,
AP,
PE
RS
260. Increasing use
of Controller Pilot
Data Link
Communication
(CPDLC) for
weather
information and
advisories/clearanc
es
NOTE: See also 93
& 271
An enabling and transformational
component of the FAA's Next
Generation Air Transportation System
(NextGen) and Single European Sky
ATM Research (SESAR); critical to
achieving a performance-based NAS.
This will provide comprehensive data
connectivity, including ground
automation message generation and
receipt, message routing and
transmission, and aircraft avionics
requirements.
Will automate repetitive tasks,
supplement voice communications with
less workload-intensive data
communications, and enable ground
systems to use real-time aircraft data to
improve traffic management efficiency.
Once implemented, Data Comm and
NextGen will enable air traffic control to
issue complex clearances to a pilot and
the aircraft's flight management system
via electronic data transfer instead of
time-consuming voice transmission.
Operations and services enabled by
Data Comm allow air traffic controllers
to manage more traffic, increasing the
capacity of the NAS, airspace user
efficiency, and enhancing safety.
Lowers operational costs for airspace
users and the FAA.
Historical perspective: Controller-pilot
communication was and is mainly
enabled by radio transmissions on a
single shared frequency.
Data communication between aircraft
and ANSP is used to exchange
clearances, amendments, and
requests. At specified airports, data
communications is the principal means
of communication between ANSP and
equipped aircraft. “Terminal automation
provides the ability to transmit
automated terminal information,
departure clearances and amendments,
and taxi route instructions via data
communications, including hold-short
instructions. The taxi route instruction
data communication function reduces
requests for progressive taxi
instructions. Benefits arising from this
capability, in conjunction with other
NAS investments, include enhanced
airport throughput, controller efficiency,
enhanced safety, as well as reduced
fuel burn and emissions. OI 104207
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Clearances
are issued via data link where possible.
Associated human performance hazards:
a. Controller fails to issue clearance
to pilot.
b. Controller issues clearance to
incorrect pilot
c. Voice-issued amendment not
entered into automation
NextGen/SESAR hazard condition: Controller
sends clearance via DataComm. Associated
human performance hazard: Controller fails to
execute sending of clearance.
When approach and landing clearances are
transmitted by data link to cockpit during this
critical phase of flight, traffic watch (“heads-up”)
time may be reduced due to the fact that one pilot
may be head down responding to and accepting
DataComm clearance; especially below 10,000 ft.
AGL.
Voice inflection, emphasis, and urgency will be
absent in a text-based data communications
system.
Loss of “party line” insight to clearance being
provided to other aircraft. Spatial information on
other aircraft locations provided on NAV displays
does not replace intent information provided by
listening to clearances provided to other aircraft.
Reliability and security of the CPDLC links may be
compromised by cyber security vulnerabilities.
DataLink Challenges from Nav Canada:
Consistency of Information

Hyphen in tail numbers, not in Flight Plan

Leading zeros in AFN name
Different variations of equipment.

Use of adaptation to deal with differences in Avionics,
unsolicited Clearances, different clearance formats.
Errors or delays in message flows

Errors in Flight Plan messages causing delay of flight
entry in ATC systems , causes issues in order of
message and protocols in PDC, FANS and OCL

Missing or delayed AFN, RCLs causing issues
Standardizing Data link information on flight plans

Awaiting ICAO Flight Plan 2012 changes.
System Failures - Complete

Fallback Infrastructure
Degraded Mode of Operations – Partial Loss

Adequate today?
90% of problems are due to special cases:
Logon problems, hyphens, leading zeros missing CRCs
Page 83 of 110
2014 - Meteorological information provided in a digital manner
Building on existing national capabilities, the “new generation” of services will aim to improve
efficiency by providing the following:
•
Consistent meteorological (MET) information regarding location, time and user application
to reduce the risk of conflict and to enhance ATM predictability
•
Common and harmonized MET information
•
MET information based on the latest science and enhanced observation and forecasting
capabilities
•
MET information integrating forecast uncertainty to aid the determination of uncertainty and
risk and serve ATM decision making
•
Interoperable MET information within the European ATM system via SWIM (sharing data
between airlines, navigation services and airport operators)
•
Integrated MET information into ATM decision making
http://www.volpe.dot.gov/coi/aso/work/data-comm.html
Hazard Log from Results of Phase 4 - Analysis of ConOps2011 Air Traffic Control Concept
during 3 workshops in 2006 by Eurocontrol & FAST: http://www.nlratsi.nl/fast/documentation.php
Where are we today – ANSPs, Chris Mouland, General Manager, Gander FIR, Nav Canada
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=datalink%20challenges%20from%20nav%20canada&s
ource=web&cd=4&sqi=2&ved=0CEsQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.canso.org%2Fcms%2Fs
treambin.aspx%3Frequestid%3D53A35AB3-6830-4E9E-99BF7CFF1CE06626&ei=fXFUUee0Jcj-2QWC6oGABw&usg=AFQjCNGmTjaOxmakjS3uuX-V-ADPnQE3A&sig2=gpbz1Jb8CYYfZAom3uCK5w&bvm=bv.44442042,d.b2U

261
PE
RS
AU
261. Operational
tempo and
economic
considerations
affecting air traffic
controller alertness
NOTE: See also 205
ATCO working hours led to various
cognitive performance degradations
associated with sleep deprivation and
working at times for which humans are
not biologically programmed. However,
when considering safety, the impacts of
fatigue are less clear as they are
influenced by our own awareness of our
state and by our ability to develop
strategies to overcome the detrimental
effects of fatigue. Therefore, the
prevention of the negative safety
outcomes linked to fatigue should make
it possible to reduce the occurrence of
fatigue with appropriate scheduling, but
also by providing ATCOs with the
means to detect and mitigate its effect.
Fatigue has been on the National
Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)
“Most Wanted List” since the initial list
in 1990.
Ongoing
1.
Increased frequency of Operational Errors: An
occurrence attributable to an element of the air
traffic control system in which:
a. Less than the applicable
separation minima results between
two or more aircraft, or between an
aircraft and terrain or obstacles; or
b. An aircraft lands or departs on a
runway closed to aircraft
operations
2. Impaired performance: delayed, erroneous or
chaotic responses to normal stimuli
3. Reduced ability for the controller to process
complex information and cope with the
unexpected. It is when the automation fails or
evidences unexpected behavior that the human
needs to step in. Fatigue dramatically
compromises the ability of the flgith crew to
perform as needed in off-nominal conditions.
4. Automation mode confusion.
5. Reduced alertness
6. Adverse physiological consequences: stressors
affecting alertness
7. Adverse effects of long commutes on
performance
8. Reversions to “fight-or-flight,” panic or freeze
instinctive self-preservation behaviors in
emergency situations; reflexive response to
stimulation
9. Failure to report errors and omissions arising from
fatigue that do not necessarily result in reportable
incidents
10. Poor environmental characteristics of rest areas in
air traffic control facilities
A recent FAA Office of Inspector General report found
that pilots might not be reporting all instances of
fatigue. The report noted that, of 33 air carrier pilots
interviewed by OIG researchers, 26 (79 percent) said
that, at some time, they had been fatigued while on
duty; nevertheless, only eight pilots notified their air
carrier of their condition. Among the reasons cited for
not reporting fatigue was the fear of “punitive action
from their employers.”
Page 84 of 110
Human Performance and Fatigue Research for Controllers (PDF), Source: Mitre Corporation;
http://fulltextreports.com/2011/04/25/air-traffic-controllers-human-performance-and-fatigueresearch/
Controller Operational Performance Effects

ASRS Analysis study (spanning 1988-1996)--2.7% of reports referenced controller-related
fatigue

OEDS database study--80% of OEDs between 0800-1900; nearly 50% of errors occurred
within 30 minutes on-position, usually upon returning from a break

Higher percentage of data posting errors occur on midnight shift

Neither study revealed shift work variables as strong predictors of the severity of
operational errors

NTSB (2007) – present case studies of fatigue related incidents/accidents
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/avs/offices/afs/afs200/media/aviation_f
atigue_symposium/SchroederAppComplete.pdf
http://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/1527.pdf
http://www.hf.faa.gov/docs/508/docs/volpe/hfatcs.pdf
262
PE
RS
OP,
EN
V
262. Significant
imbalances in
regional personnel
supply and demand
Like most other sectors across the
country, the aviation industry is likely to
experience a significant number of
retirements in the near future.
Retirements are anticipated to be
particularly concentrated amongst
commercial pilots. This attrition,
coupled with a rebounding economy
and industry growth, has led to
projections of a shortage in the supply
of adequately trained commercial pilots
domestically and globally.
The industry is at risk of a shortage of
fixed-wing pilots with the appropriate
knowledge skills and competencies, if
the industry recovers as predicted.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
A shortage of pilots and the quality of crew
training are two of the biggest concerns.
Consideration needs to be given to the
implications of hiring pilots, particularly those
flying in complex aircraft and operating
environments, with relatively low experience
levels.
Asia is facing a VERY serious shortage of pilots.
Especially experienced pilots. Yet, they place an
upper age limit on that much-needed experience
(50-55 in most cases) and have brought into play
the multi-crew pilot license (MPL). Should an MPL
licensed pilot one day fly a B777 into the
approach lights and it is revealed he/she only had
600 hours total flying experience. What then? Is
the public going to accept that any more than
remote controlled flights or flights with a single
pilot? Single pilot with an MPL?
International, non-Western airlines are
facing a critical shortage of pilots and
technical crew that threatens to stall the
rapid growth of their fleets. Certain
carriers are ramping up their expansion
and investing heavily in new fleets as
they look to build the region into a
global tourism hub. US plane maker
Boeing says the Middle East will need
36,000 new pilots and 53,000 new
maintenance personnel in order to keep
up with its growing fleet. Boeing
expects demand for 2,520 jetliners
worth $450bn over the next 20 years,
led by Emirates, Qatar Airways and
Etihad. This is but one of the
expanding markets.
Talent Pipeline: The forecasted shortage of business aviation professionals will create
challenges in attracting, developmental mentoring, and retaining new professionals who can
safely manage, maintain, service, and fly business aviation into the future.
A pilot shortage is forecast for the near future. For scheduled airlines, the problem is
compounded by pilots reaching age 65 and mandatory retirement starting in December 2012,
and copilots require 1500 hours beginning August 2013. Commercial operators with more
resources are expected to scoop up many qualified candidates leaving business aviation to
fend for itself. Today's aviation professionals must begin to recruit and mentor the
professionals of tomorrow.
Boeing Projects Exponential Growth in Demand for Airline Pilots, July 7, 2012
http://www.airtransportnews.aero/article.pl?mcateg=&id=37854
By 2031 the world will require:
• 460,000 new commercial airline pilots
• 601,000 new commercial airline maintenance technicians
Projected demand by region:
• Asia Pacific – 185,600 pilots and 243,500 technicians
• Europe – 100,900 pilots and 129,700 technicians
• North America – 69,000 pilots and 92,500 technicians
• Middle East – 36,100 pilots and 53,700 technicians
• Latin America – 42,000 pilots and 47,300 technicians
• Africa – 14,500 pilots and 16,200 technicians
• Russia and CIS – 11,900 pilots and 18,100 technicians
There are about 1,000 unemployed licensed pilots in the Netherlands, and there is an
expectation that proportional unemployed numbers of pilots in other EU countries would lead to
5600 in Germany, 3750 in France, etc. or across the 450 million EU population something like
30,000 unemployed pilots. Assuming these same floating pilots reserves are available in other
parts of the world. The same phenomenon exists in Canada. The industry is not addressing the
large number of both experienced and inexperienced number of pilots who are idle.
On pilot shortages in the Gulf States:
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/crew-shortfall-threatens-growth-of-gulf-airlines-431918.html
2010 Human Resource Study of the Commercial Pilot in Canada; Canadian Aviation
Maintenance Council.
Broad economic expansion (a wider external trend) is producing major increases in aviation
activity, which in turn results in a pilot shortage. The global demand for pilots in general and
experienced pilots specifically is creating unparalleled shortages. Alteon, a Boeing subsidiary,
recently projected a worldwide requirement for in excess of 350,000 pilots over the next 20 years
just to support new aircraft deliveries.
http://www.casa.gov.au/corporat/riskreport.pdf
As for major U.S. and European
carriers, in about a year the floodgate
will open and the current generation will
begin to retire in very large numbers.
December 2013: http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-growing-hunger-air-travel-has-created-pilotshortage-1508656
Page 85 of 110
263
AN
S
OP,
AU
263. Shift from
clearance-based to
trajectory-based air
traffic control
NOTE: See also
A0C_58 & 260
This concept also known as Trajectory
Based Operations (TBO) will provide
the capabilities, decision-support tools,
and automation to manage aircraft
movement by trajectory. It will enable
aircraft to fly negotiated flight paths
necessary for full Performance Based
Navigation (PBN), taking both operator
preferences and optimal airspace
system performance into consideration.
TBO is a cornerstone of NextGen and
SESAR; it is a major operational
transformation for aviation, basing safe
separation on much higher levels of
automation that assesses the current
aircraft positions, with respect to their
future positions in time. TBO is a 2025
air traffic management system concept
that manages aircraft through their
Four-Dimensional Trajectory (4DT),
gate to gate, both strategically and
tactically to control surface and airborne
operations. A 4DT includes a series of
points from departure to arrival
representing the aircraft’s path in four
dimensions: lateral (latitude and
longitude), vertical (altitude), and time.
4DTs will be used for planning,
sequencing, spacing, and separation
based on the aircrafts’ current and
future positions. Separation duties will
be performed by a combination of
airborne and Ground Based Automation
(GBA).
Historical perspective: On clearancebased ATC… and the drivers/enablers
for TBO.
These functions integrate the traditional
functions of navigation (defining a path
and creating path guidance) and flight
control (steering the aircraft to that
path). It adds additional capabilities for
NextGen, including conformance
monitoring, trajectory negotiation (a
traditional “communication” function),
and some functions to support
trajectory planning (weather data, traffic
data, fuel optimization, etc). Strategic
trajectory planning, or trajectory
optimization (to optimize time or fuel
within a given set of constraints such as
aircraft performance and weather), may
take place within the aircraft trajectory
management function or may be
accomplished in a ground system and
the result communicated to the aircraft.
A common operational concept of use
Near
1.
Synchronous garble and False Replies Unsynchronized
In Time preventing CPDLC messages from getting
through.
2.
ADS-B ground system failure; ground based automation
does not receive ADS-B message
3.
Inaccurate modeling of wake location and strength (drift,
sink, persistence, severity)
4.
Ground based conflict resolution not calculated. With
increasing levels of traffic, TCAS may not provide a
robust defense.
5.
Safety critical input data are incorrect, late or missing
6.
Software processes are too slow to reliably fulfill the
automation requirements
7.
Breakout maneuvers, go-arounds, or missed approaches
are not conflict free
8.
Controller misunderstands what the automation is doing
with other aircraft in his/her sector
9.
Excessive controller workload due to TBO complexity
10. Excessive controller workload due to TBO automation
failure
11. Pilot distractions: pilot makes mistakes when performing
TBO navigation due to distractions from TBO related
distractions (conformance alerts, etc.) in cockpit. This
distraction may become more likely, when the instruction
requires the pilot to involve ‘knowledge based behavior’
(Rasmussen, 1983). This follows from very recent NLR
research into improved angle of attack indications, where
a ‘Rule Based Isomorphic’ display had the best results
during stressful situations.
12. Pilot performs traffic avoidance maneuver to clear aircraft
not accounted for in the current 4D trajectory
13. Pilot performs weather avoidance maneuver not
accounted for in the current 4D trajectory
14. Pilot decision making when presented with weather
information may not be uniform.
15. Aircraft emergency situations (off-nominal); aircraft has
an emergency and must deviate from 4D trajectory
16. Missed approach under TOB; unanticipated change to
the 4D trajectory by the aircraft
17. Received information from GPS incorrect or missing
18. Unmanned Aircraft loses control link and is not visible to
ground based automation/ANSP, Unmanned Aircraft is
executing the predetermined flight plan from the point it
lost link.
19. Control link failure between UAS and ground station;
equipment failure; intentional takeover
20. Unauthorized aircraft or vehicle traffic; aircraft or vehicles
not equipped with transponder or ADS-B
Page 86 of 110
2014 - Performance-based navigation. Area navigation based on performance requirements for aircraft
operating along an
ATS route, on an instrument approach procedure or in a designated airspace. Note: Performance
requirements are expressed in navigation specifications in terms of accuracy, integrity, continuity,
availability and functionality needed for the proposed operation in the context of a particular airspace
concept. Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) represents a shift from clearance-based to trajectory-based
control. Aircraft will fly negotiated trajectories and air traffic control moves to trajectory management.
The roles of pilots/controllers will evolve due to the increase in automation support. The focus of TBO is
primarily en route cruise. Adaptive increased glideslope (3 to 4.5 degrees).
June 2013 FAA NextGen Implementation Plan:
As of February 2013, the FAA had installed 445 operational ADS-B ground stations. These will provide
separation services at 28 Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) facilities.
The FAA will take advantage of increased surveillance and navigation accuracy, as well as an improved
understanding of wake vortices, to allow aircraft to operate simultaneously, either independently or with
reduced separation, on closely spaced parallel runways. Key near-term schedule dates for Aircraft
Operator Enablers:
Performance Based Navigation (PBN)

2014 - Advanced RNP, RNP 0.3, RNP 2

2015 – Trajectory Operations Navigation

2018 – Alternative Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
Capability Safety Assessment of Trajectory Based Operations, December 21, 2011, Joint Planning and
Development Office (JPDO) Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) Capability Safety Assessment (CapSA)
Team
The EU-funded FLYSAFE project brought together the research and simulations of the coming new ATM
technology. The project was set up to improve the safety of air travel by providing crews with better
information on the three most common external threats for aircraft – weather conditions, traffic collision
and terrain collision. FLYSAFE looked at the design, development, implementation, testing and validation
of a ‘Next Generation Integrated Surveillance System’ (NG ISS).
http://ec.europa.eu/research/transport/projects/items/making_air_travel_safer_en.htm
A key development is a Weather Information Management Systems (WIMS) to gather much more
detailed and accurate information on upcoming weather conditions than current systems. This means
pilots will be better warned about potentially dangerous situations such as Clear Air Turbulence (CAT),
thunderstorms and icing – conditions which current aircraft weather radar. FLYSAFE utilized a
multidisciplinary team to produce useful results.
OI 104120 Point In Space Metering: Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP) uses scheduling tools and
trajectory-based operations to assure smooth flow of traffic and increase the efficient use of airspace.
OI 104117 Improved Management of Arrivals/Surface/Departure Flow Operations (IASDF): This OI
integrates advanced arrival/departure flow management with advanced surface operation functions to
improve overall airport capacity and efficiency. ANSP automation uses arrival and departure scheduling
tools and four-dimensional trajectory agreements to flow traffic at high-density airports. Automation
incorporates Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), current and forecasted conditions (e.g., weather),
airport configuration, user-provided gate assignments, requested runway, aircraft wake characteristics,
and flight performance profiles. ANSP, flight planners, and airport operators monitor airport operational
efficiency and make collaborative real-time adjustments to schedules and sequencing of aircraft to
optimize throughput.
OI 104115 Current Tactical Management of Flow in the en Route for Arrivals/ Departures: Proper spacing
and sequencing of air traffic maximizes NAS efficiency and capacity in the arrival and departure phases of
flight. Controllers provide traffic synchronization to aircraft by monitoring the situation, making control
decisions, and modifying flight trajectories to meet operational objectives and accommodate user
preferences. They achieve this by applying manual controller optimization procedures. Traffic specialists
and controllers use traffic displays (radar and enhanced traffic management system) and flight strips to
establish flow initiatives, such as assignment to alternative arrival flows or miles-in-trial requirements.
264
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264. Use of nonapproved and/or
poorly maintained
maintenance tools
Depending on the level of the
customized maintenance program
selected, the investment in the required
Ground Support Equipment
(GSE) and tools can become
significant.
Cheap GSE/tools may be offered from
local suppliers, “round the corner”, as
substitutes for approved or proprietary
tools. These may be copied and
manufactured by non- approved
suppliers, and may therefore not
conform to OEM technical
specifications.
There have been instances where tools
have been made from incomplete, or
out-of-date drawings, incorrect material,
and/or according to wrong protection
processes. As a consequence, it is
likely that these tools will not be of the
appropriate quality, and not perform
their intended function in a safe and
satisfactory manner.
Ongoing
Tools made from incomplete, or out-of-date drawings,
incorrect material, and/or according to wrong protection
processes.
1. OEM and Supplier/Vendor tools manufactured
and distributed by non-licensed companies based
on non–controlled drawings
2. Copies of Vendor proprietary tools bearing the
same part number, but copied from the original by
unauthorized companies.
3. Alternate” tool design sold as so-called
“equivalents”. These tools have a part number
different than the one given in the manufacturer’s
documentation.
Reported problems in the use of the engine tools (the
bootstrap), are not related to any one particular aircraft
type. The majority of these incidents are the
consequence of one, or a combination of the following
reasons:
4. Use of tools not listed in the AMM, and not
approved by OEM.
5. Not using appropriately maintained tools.
6. Excessive pre-load applied to the tool, which can
damage the tool.
Page 87 of 110
Safety First: The Airbus Safety Magazine, January 2012 edition
265
EN
V
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AU
265. Socioeconomic and
political crises
affecting aviation
NOTE: Related to
80
Ongoing socio-economic and political
crisis and will affect the air transport
industry including both safety and
operational considerations. Air
transport industry and associated
stakeholders must prepare themselves
and what measures to undertake in
view of the financial, social and political
instability and uncertainty. Major areas
of impact include:

The role of organizations,
governments and regional
authorities in helping the industry,

How government austerity
measures and worldwide
economic uncertainty affect
government oversight of aviation
safety.

How airports and airliners can
work in tandem in order to survive.

How solution providers can offer
new products that will help airlines
and airports to overcome the
difficult times.
There are increasingly intense social,
economic, political, environmental, and
other pressures on civil aviation policy,
particularly at the national and regional
levels. Such pressures can result from
rapid changes to socio-economic
systems, which can have global effects
(for example, rising expectation by
society of safety levels). These
pressures can also lead to conflicts
such as those between safety and
environmental obligations. In meeting
environmental obligations, those
relating to safety should not be
compromised.
Ongoing
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Approach and landing hazards due to
environmental constraints on noise and
emissions.
Failure of contracting States to carry out their
safety oversight functions.
Overtaxing the capacity and safety infrastructure
at airports and within the airspace structure.
Lack of both human and financial resources to
execute safety oversight functions.
High costs of recruiting and retaining qualified
technical personnel who satisfactorily meet the
requirements of the positions including
professionalism and integrity.
Failure to detect deficiencies due to inspector
shortages.
Failure of a license/rating/certificate/approval
holder to correct deficiencies identified by the civil
aviation authority technical experts including
faults, malfunctions, defects, and other
occurrences that cause or might cause adverse
effects on the continuing airworthiness of the
aircraft.
There are many risks, particularly those emanating
from value creating activities such as growth and profit,
which expand business complexity. Business
complexity and requires active risk management to
ensure that boards of organizations make informed
decisions. While ERM seeks to invigorate and give
confidence to opportunity seeking activity, its aim is to
ensure managers take actions with their eyes wide
open, comprehensively appraised of the safety risks
associated with the growth and performance
improvement activities planned.
Page 88 of 110
First mentioned in 1946, deteriorating professionalism continues to trouble the industry.
Reactive legislative decisions and policy making, both domestically and internationally, are
having detrimental safety implications and could prove to cause a significant degradation of
future safety for aviation.
2012 ATN Leaders Forum: The socio-economic and political crisis and the impact on air
transport, 5 March 2012 Sofitel Athens Airport Hotel, Athens, Greece, Organized by Air
Transport News
http://www.airtransportnews.aero/leaders_forum.pl
THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE EU AIR TRANSPORT SECTOR,
Provisional Note, October 2009
Safety Oversight Manual: Second Edition — 2006, Doc 9734, AN/959, Part A - The
Establishment and Management of a State’s Safety Oversight System
http://legacy.icao.int/FSIX/_Library%5CDoc9734_Part_A.pdf (page 18)
The Corporate Sustainability Model for Airline Business, Ayse Kucuk Yilmaz
Anadolu University, Assistant professor of School of Civil Aviation,Anadolu University, 2 Eylul
Kampus 26470, Eskisehir, Turkey, European Journal of Scientific Research, ISSN 1450-216X
Vol.22 No.3 (2008), pp.304-317
© EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2008, http://www.eurojournals.com/ejsr.htm
266
PE
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AU
266. Single-pilot
cockpits for large
commercial
transports
Added November
2012
Commercial avionics vendors are
attempting to visualize what the cockpit
of a next-generation widebody might
look like 20 years from now. The
biggest potential breakthrough from this
could be single pilot operations for
commercial aircraft.
These innovations are termed “cockpit
3.0” in a classification that ranks the
Concorde, with its electromechanical
instruments and a processor and
display for each sensor, as cockpit 1.0,
and glass cockpits with information
merged into displays as version 2.0.
Pilots using cockpit 1.0 had a limited
number of tools but could master them
completely and understand the cause of
problems, the more capable cockpit 2.0
in some ways makes it harder for pilots,
leaving them little to do when things are
going well, but proving complicated to
handle when something goes wrong.
Cockpit 3.0 is likely to feature intelligent
interfaces that deduce what the pilot
wants to do and help him do it, and
would probably monitor crew safety. An
eye tracker might see what the pilot is
looking at and know it’s not the right
tool for the problem, directing him to the
right tool or even removing the wrong
one from view.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Down-scoping cockpit operations to a single pilot
means that the coordinated crew will not be
available as a resource for the one pilot remaining
on the flight deck.
The complexity of current operations imposes
considerable demands on flight crew, particularly
under high workload conditions. Moreover,
accident investigations indicate that captains have
failed, sometimes at critical points in the flight, to
take advantage of important resources that are
available to them. Moreover, these resources
have included not only available equipment and
supporting services but the assistance of the
coordinated crew.
In a postulated single-pilot, commercial-transport
environment, cockpit systems must be provided to
create the functionality and safety equivalent to
that of current blended-crew task environments.
This is a tall order and may not be possible,
practical, or politically acceptable.
TSA/DHS: Security aspects of single-pilot
operations in U.S. airspace? Protections against
rogue single pilots?
Operational problems that occur most often during
Single-Pilot IFR (SPIFR) in GA:
a. Altitude Deviations
b. Improperly Flown Approaches
c. Heading Deviations
d. Position Deviations
e. Loss of Control
As a result of cost reductions and/or entrepreneurial spirit, the necessity to arm pilots with the
tools to safely manage single-pilot operations has become more important than ever. The
Single-Pilot Safety Working Group provides helpful tools and informative resources, including
the annual Single-Pilot Safety Standdown.
Accident rates are consistently higher for single engine piston powered aircraft. Owner flown
aircraft face unique challenges; often a lack of guidance, financial support, and clear
procedures allow the pilot to use personal discretion without a set standard to measure
against.
Next-gen cockpits will be single pilot, posits Thales
FARNBOROUGH AIR SHOW » JULY 19, 2010
http://www.ainonline.com/node/26004?q=node/25469
Ryanair’s O’Leary Calls for Single-Pilot Commercial Flights
AIN AIR TRANSPORT PERSPECTIVE » SEPTEMBER 10, 2010
http://www.ainonline.com/node/26004
On March 26, 2012, Vertical Power rolled out its VP-400 system, a back-up EFIS that flies the
[LSA] aircraft safely to the best runway in an emergency.
http://www.aero-news.net/subscribe.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=7d2d7702-ed4c-4dd3-be0c2710d71cce15
The annual incapacitation rate of commercial pilots.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22272515
Aeromedical emphasis on minimizing cardiovascular risk and monitoring the mental health of
pilots remains appropriate. Age should influence the content and periodicity of regulatory
aeromedical assessments. The demonstrated annual incapacitation rate of 0.25% may provide a
basis for quantifying the acceptable risk for a pilot undertaking single pilot commercial air
transport operations.
Erroneous assumption: By eliminating pilots from the cockpit the (human) error space is reduced,
the primary causal factor of fatal accidents will be eliminated, and flying will be safer.
Fact: Multi-crew operations provide human redundancy in the air (the counterpart to hardware
redundancy) and detect/prevent far more in-flight incidents and accidents than they cause. A
pilot flying Single-Pilot IFR is considerably more likely to make errors than one who has a copilot
to help with the workload and catch mistakes (conclusion of ASRS study).
In the General Aviation world,
inexpensive technologies are being
fielded to enable safe recovery from
unusual attitudes and automatic routing
to alternate airports in the event of
aircraft problems. Such techniques
could come ito play in the event of
single-pilot incapacitation.
Two-person crews are able to deal with unexpected failures that were not analyzed during
design process…

Emergencies

Hardware failures

Security events

Passenger/cargo problems

Operational work-arounds

Weather

Etc.
Page 89 of 110
267
T
OP
267. Increasing
adoption of
software defined
radio systems in
commercial
aviation
Added January
2013
268
T
OR
G
268. Decrease in
turboprop fleets
and operations in
the U.S.
Added February
2013
A software-defined radio (SDR) system
is like a computer with a radio
frequency (RF) front end. Functions
that were previously hard-wired, such
as modulation/demodulation and
encoding/decoding, are not
programmable. An advantage of SDR
is the potential to reduce life-cycle
costs, compared with conventional
radios. If additional capability is needed
once the radio had been shipped, that
capability can in most cases be added
via software, thus decreasing the need
for changeout of physical hardware.
SDR has seen implementation among
ground-based radio systems for combat
troops and is beginning to be employed
in military avionics.
Near
While turboprop manufacturers are
reporting positive growth in sales and
turboprops have remained a major
component of regional air carriers flying
in the world, the United States has not
followed world trends. Turboprop fleets
and sales are down significantly since
the mid 1990s. As of early 2013, there
are no signs indicating that trend is
reversing. U.S. air carriers do not have
any turboprop airplanes on order.
Near
1.
SDR generate a lot of heat, and the availability of
cooling on an aircraft is limited. Lessons learned
from recent incidents involving high-energydensity batteries aboard aircraft must be brought
to bear on SDR implementations.
2. SDR avionics may require dedicated network
monitoring software to prevent malware of
highjacking or disabling of the avionics by
unauthorized personnel.
3. Controlled information available on the SDR
network could be leaked if the network was
tapped into. Careful design of the bandwidth of
the network “pipes,” the accessibility of
information among multiple nodes, and the kind of
information carried within the network will require
careful, upfront design work.
4. SDR changes the role of systems suppliers.
Providers of the hardware cards must build them
to accommodate software written by others.
5. Challenges in technology certification.
6. SDR systems may have unique human-systems
interaction considerations. The “what’s-it-doingnow” phenomenon? Will there be issues of
interface design such as use of touch screens in a
realistic flight environment (turbulence, vibration,
etc.).
NTSB noted lack of regulatory requirements or
regulatory oversight as a probable cause or
contributing factor to several aircraft accidents
operated by part 135 commuter air carriers:

Northwest Airlink 5719 (Express II Airlines) –
December 1, 1993 (CFIT)

United Express 6291 (Atlantic Coast Airlines) –
January 7, 1994 (LOC-I)

American Eagle 3379 (Flagship Airlines) –
December 13, 1994 (LOC-I)
The FAA published a final rule requiring most part 135
commuter operators offering scheduled service in
turbojets or turboprops with greater than nine seats to
operate under 14 CFR part 121.
Page 90 of 110
SDR Takes Flight, http://accessintelligence.imirus.com/Mpowered/book/vav13/i2/p24
The Software Radio Architecture, http://www.freewebs.com/mabilloo/softwareradarch.pdf
As communications technology continues its rapid transition from analog to digital, more
functions of contemporary radio systems are implemented in software, leading toward the
software radio. What distinguishes software radio architectures? What new capabilities are more
economically accessible in software radios than digital radios? What are the pitfalls? And the
prognosis? (1995 reference)
What new aircraft are being equipped with this? 787, A-350, C-Series?
Regional Aircraft Trends, presentation to CAST JIMDAT, February 2013. Turboprop orders are
directly correlated with fuel prices.
As a percentage of regional fleets, turboprops represented ~100% in 1980 and ~21% in 2011.
Turboprops: All turboprops >12,500 lbs used in passenger air carrier operations
Regional fleet: All turboprops >12,500 lbs and Antonov An–148, Bae–146/Avro, Bombardier
CRJ (All series), Embraer 135/140/145/170/175/190/195, Dornier 328JET, Fokker F28/70/100,
Sukhoi Superjet 100, and Yakovlev Yak–40 in passenger air carrier operations
Source: Ascend Online
The U.S. turboprop and piston fleet is expected to decrease from 33.5 percent of the regional
share in 2011 (860 aircraft) to 18.9 percent of the regional share in 2032 (564 aircraft).
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast, 2012.
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aviation_forecasts/aerospace_fore
casts/2012-2032/media/2012%20FAA%20Aerospace%20Forecast.pdf , p. 50. Includes all
aircraft in scheduled passenger service, including piston-powered airplanes and turboprops
weighing less than 12,500 lbs.
269
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269. Proliferation
of voluntarilysubmitted safety
information
Added February
2013
During the 1990s reinventing
government movement, there was a
proliferation of voluntary programs
across government as President Clinton
and Vice President Gore streamlined
the regulatory enforcement process
while also encouraging agencies to
maximize voluntary compliance by
business (Balleisen 2010). Voluntary
programs remain widespread in
government today, as regulatory
agencies have come to embrace
programs that see firms as active
participants in their own governance
while firms view voluntary programs as
an efficient and flexible way to govern
themselves and apply industry best
practices (Short and Toffel 2010).
To gain access to this valuable safety
information, the FAA has developed a
suite of voluntary safety reporting
programs that offer a regulatory
incentive to both air carriers and
employees who voluntarily submit
incident reports to the agency. The
agency uses this data to proactively
target its oversight of air carriers and
operators while also identifying
systemic areas of safety concern
across the country. The three main
voluntary programs operated by the
FAA that gather this data are the
Aviation Safety Reporting System
(ASRS), the Voluntary Disclosure
Reporting Program (VDRP), and the
Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP).
Each of these programs has important
differences in the way it is structured,
how it is implemented, why it was
created, and the type of data it collects
that lead to a variety of outputs and
challenges.
Ongoing
As a new industry or risk area is identified, there is a
period of proliferation of rules and enforcement action
to change behavior. Over time, the regulatory agency
produces more and more rules to constrain new
behaviors. As the regulated entities adapt and
compliance levels rise, public and governmental
attention will wane. When this regulatory equilibrium
sets in, resources for regulatory oversight typically
remains flat or diminishes while at the same time the
regulated industry becomes more complex. This period
leads to an information asymmetry between the
regulator and industry. The next stage in this cycle is
when the regulatory agency, faced with waning support
elsewhere, turns to the entity it is regulating for
support.
While ASRS received almost 49,000 reports from
members of the aviation community in 2009, the
program faces several challenges:

Perception as a General Aviation Program:
Several in the aviation community have
questioned the continued need of ASRS with
some calling the program a “general aviation
reporting system” (Air Carrier Interview
5/13/2010).vi

Lack of Awareness of ASRS Outputs:
Interviewees within the FAA and air carriers noted
that they had never seen a report or Alert Bulletin
produced by ASRS despite regular publications of
same. The proliferation of ASAPs within individual
carriers and employee groups has greatly
diminished the reliance on ASRS protection and
outputs.

Competition with other FAA Programs: As more
and more carriers enter into agreements to share
their proprietary safety data with governmentindustry collaborative such as ASIAS, ASRS
faces increasing perception of the program as a
redundant expenditure.
With increasing amounts of information, “Silver’s
dilemma” becomes increasingly dominant. It states
that the “signal-to-noise-ratio” falls, rather than
increases as the sources and volume of information
grows. More data is a mixed blessing: risks arise as
information growth outpaces the ability of individuals
and groups to process it.
Page 91 of 110
April 2014
COLLABORATING WITH INDUSTRY TO ENSURE REGULATORY OVERSIGHT: THE USE OF
VOLUNTARY SAFETY REPORTING PROGRAMS BY THE FEDERAL AVIATION
ADMINISTRATION
A dissertation submitted to Kent State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of Doctor of Philosophy, by Russell W. Mills, May 2011
FAA officials (and some air carriers) describe ASAP as “our most valuable source of safety
information” and “the crown jewel of voluntary safety programs” (ASIAS Interview 2/24/2010;
AFS-230 Interview 11/6/2009). While ASAP has generated valuable safety information for
carriers and the FAA, there are several challenges facing ASAP that are not allowing the FAA to
realize the full benefits of the program:

Lack of integration of ASAPs within same carrier: Many ERCs noted that they do not
communicate with other ASAP ERCs within the same company. This “silo-ing” of safety
information within the same carrier can lead to ineffective root cause analysis and
corrective actions (NASA Interview 4/1/2010).

Lack of communication between CMOs: Many FAA inspectors noted that they never
communicate with other inspectors who sit on ERCs to discuss safety issues identified
through their ERCs

ERC does not have adequate authority to effectively recommend corrective actions:
Several carriers and ERCs noted that they do not have the authority to implement changes
within carriers. Some noted that they act strategically by withholding a particular
recommendation derived from an ASAP report until the number of ASAPs on that issue
reaches a critical mass or a high-profile event takes place.

Concerns over confidentiality hinders systemic data analysis at national- level: The lack of
direct access to ASAP reports has limited the ability of the FAA to conduct systemic
analysis at the national-level, which is one of the major goals of ASAP (Department of
Transportation Inspector General Report 2009). While the FAA, through its funding of
MITRE and ASIAS, has developed appropriate technology solutions to overcome some of
these concerns, the agency’s lack of a national database of ASAP reports limits its ability to
fully analyze ASAP data and propose mitigations to safety concerns.

Collaborative data sharing efforts lack authority, resources and technology to effectively
analyze ASAP data: The lack of standardization of incoming ASAP data has made the
analysis by groups such as ASIAS very difficult. Additionally, the inability of ASIAS to
directly commission studies and propose mitigation strategies has limited the ability to look
at trending across carriers to identify systemic issues. To date, ASIAS has only conducted
3 directed studies (GAO Report 2010).

Lack of systematic audits leads to complacency among established ERCs: The
proliferation of ASAPs across aviation has reduced the ability of AFS-230 to conduct
follow-up audits of established ASAPs. Some more established ERCs have become
complacent in their analysis of events and would benefit from an evaluation of their
processes and procedures.

Lack of staffing limits ability of ERCs to conduct effective root-cause analyses: The most
common problem identified with ASAP was the lack of staffing provided by both the air
carrier and the FAA. Several carriers and FAA CMO inspectors noted that they believe the
FAA should dedicate one inspector to ASAP. ERC members noted that often the FAA
representative would often come to meetings unprepared because of their additional
inspector workload. Also, carriers noted that they lacked resources to adequately analyze
ASAP data within their companies, which would improve their ability to conduct root cause
analyses (Air carrier interview 5/14/2010).
Silver, Nate, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t, New
York Penguin Press, 2012.
270
AN
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270. Initiation of
collaborative air
traffic
management
Added February
2013
Individual flight-specific trajectory
changes resulting from TMIs will be
disseminated to the appropriate Air
Navigation Service Provider (ANSP)
automation for tactical approval and
execution. This capability will increase
the agility of the National Airspace
System (NAS) to adjust and respond to
dynamically changing conditions such
as impacting weather, congestion, and
system outages. OI-105208 Traffic
Management Initiatives with Flight
Specific Trajectories
Performance analysis, where
throughput is constrained, is the basis
for strategic operations planning.
Continuous (real-time) constraints are
provided to ANSP traffic management
decision-support tools and NAS users.
Evaluation of NAS performance is both
a real-time activity feedback tool and a
post-event analysis process. Flight day
evaluation metrics are complementary
and consistent with collateral sets of
metrics for airspace, airport, and flight
operations. OI 105302 Continuous
Flight Day evaluation
Timely and accurate NAS information
enables users to plan and fly routings
that meet their objectives. Constraint
information that impacts the proposed
route of flight is incorporated into ANSP
automation, and is available to users.
examples of constraint information
include Special Use Airspace (SUA)
status, Significant Meteorological
Information (SIGMeTS), infrastructure
outages, and significant congestion
events. OI 101102 Provide Air Full
Flight Plan Constraint evaluation with
Feedback
Near
FAA AJP-61 has initiated a human hazard assessment
of Segment Bravo. The Segment Bravo activity focuses
on a human performance hazard analysis of NextGen
Segment Bravo. A documented hazard analysis will
identify specific NextGen OIs and increments that have
an impact on the safety aspects of human performance
in the National Airspace System. Additionally, the
report will identify: 1. new capabilities and functions
that are introduced as a result of NextGen Segment
Bravo; 2. hazards that stem from human performance
or human error; 3. new capabilities that erode the
current level of safety; and 4. new human error modes
that are introduced by NextGen technologies,
techniques, or procedures.
The OV6c Off-Nominal Scenario Analysis activity will
involve a complete Human Hazard Assessment for
new NextGen Operational concepts and off-nominal
scenarios. As new information and operational
scenarios are developed, human hazard assessments
will be completed and hazards will be added to the
human hazard database. These reported hazards will
summarize the results of new human hazard
assessments completed over the period of
performance. Included in these assessments will be
off-nominal operational scenarios.
Projected completion: FY2014
Regionally implemented systems will not only increase
the cost of installation of equipment but also increase
operational hazards.
2014 - The Airport CDM project integrates processes and systems aiming at improving the
overall efficiency of operations at European airports. Particularly focusing on the aircraft turnround and pre-departure sequencing process. This in turn allows the ATM Network to run more
fluidly. Flight and Flow — Information for a
Collaborative Environment (FF-ICE). The FF-ICE takes into consideration the requirements of
the ATM community, including the military, to achieve a “common picture” in global ATM. The
focus on cooperation should be, in particular, in the areas of data security, data exchange, data
integrity, and data sharing.
May 2013
Collaborative Air Traffic Management Technologies (CATMT) is a NextGen Transformational
Program that provides enhancements to the existing Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS).
CATMT Work Package 2 consists of:
•
Arrival Uncertainty Management (AUM) – the Unified Delay Program (UDP) automates the
use of historical data for the number of arrival slots to be reserved for unscheduled
demand.
•
Weather Integration – integrates the display of the Corridor Integrated Weather System
(CIWS) product onto the TFMS display; integrates the Route Availability Planning Tool
(RAPT) onto the TFMS display.
•
Collaborative Airspace Constraint Resolution (CACR) – automated decision support tool
that identifies constrained airspace and assists traffic planners with formulating solutions
while taking into account airspace user preferences.
•
Airborne Re-routes – provides the ability to transmit TFMS generated re-routes to ATC
automation for execution.
CATMT Work Package 3 provides a major re-architecture of the existing Traffic Flow
Management System remote sites and one functional enhancement. WP3 consists of:
•
TFMS Remote Site Re-engineering (TRS-R) – hardware and software re-architecture of
the decision support tool suite used by traffic managers. Necessary to provide an
integrated tool suite and to match the software architecture of the modernized TFMS
hubsite.
•
Collaborative Information Exchange (CIX) – increased situational awareness and improved
constraint prediction by the incorporation of data made available via System Wide
Information Management (SWIM) mechanisms. Examples are Special Use Airspace (SUA)
status and surface event information.
NextGen Air Traffic Control/ Technical Operations Human Factors (Controller Efficiency & Air
Ground Integration) Research and Development Plan, AJP-61, FY 2011
http://www.aatl.net/publications/Collaborative-ATM.htm
Page 92 of 110
271
AN
S
T
271. Improved
surface operations
technologies and
procedures
Note: See also
260: Increasing
use of Controller
Pilot Data Link
Communication
(CPDLC) for
weather
information and
advisories/clearan
ces
Added February
2013
At large airports, current controller tools
provide surface displays and can alert
controllers when aircraft taxi into areas where
a runway incursion could result. Additional
ground- based capabilities will be developed
to improve runway safety that include
expansion of runway surveillance technology
(i.e., ASDe-X) to additional airports (likely not
to additional airports – see LCGS discussion
below), deployment of low-cost surveillance
for medium-sized airports, improved runway
markings, and initial controller taxi
conformance monitoring capabilities. OI
103207 Improved Runway Safety Situational
Awareness for Controllers
Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and
Control System is a system at airports having
a surveillance infrastructure consisting of a
Non-Cooperative Surveillance (e.g. SMR,
Microwave Sensors, Optical Sensors etc.)
and Cooperative Surveillance (e.g.
Multilateration systems)
Low Cost Ground Surveillance is being
developed as an alternative to more
sophisticated systems. Plans include
Certification of alternative low-cost ground
surveillance systems to enhance airport
safety by providing air traffic controllers with
information regarding aircraft and vehicle
movement on the ground
Near
The boundaries of the runway protection area must be
as close as possible to the runway to avoid
unnecessary alerts, but must be carefully determined
to allow time for immediate action / reaction in order to
prevent any mobile from entering the runway after
having been detected as a potential hazard.
When operations are conducted on two parallel or
converging runways, the only incursion hazard
happens if one aircraft enters the protection area of the
other runway while this one is engaged.
Although the only incursion hazard happens if one
aircraft enters the protection area of the other runway
while this one is engaged, unlike the previous case
both runways share a common part and the controller
has to be alerted if there is a risk that any two mobiles,
one being an aircraft, are to be in this common part at
the same time.
The conflicts / infringements considered at Level 2 are
related to the most hazardous ground circulation
incidents or accidents. They could be defined as
follows:

Conflicts / infringements on runway caused by
aircraft or vehicles;

Restricted area incursions caused by aircraft (i.e.
incursions on a closed taxiway or runway).
Effective risk management requires operators to exercise increased vigilance while operating at unfamiliar, non-towered, or complex
airport environments. The NBAA Airport Safety Working Group promotes use of tools to help manage threats on and around the
airport environment to include wildlife, infrastructure challenges, and other inherent airport hazards.
Stopping Devices
An engineered materials arrestor system or engineered materials arresting system (EMAS) is a bed of engineered materials built at the
end of a runway. Engineered materials are defined in FAA Advisory Circular No 150/5220-22A as “high energy absorbing materials of
selected strength, which will reliably and predictably crush under the weight of an aircraft". While the current technology involves
lightweight, crushable concrete blocks, there is no regulatory requirement that this material be used for EMAS. The purpose of an
EMAS is to stop an aircraft overrun with no human injury and minimal aircraft damage. The aircraft is slowed by the loss of energy
required to crush the EMAS material. An EMAS is similar in concept to the runaway truck ramp made of gravel or sand. It is intended to
stop aircraft that have overshot a runway when there is an insufficient free space for a standard runway safety area (RSA). Multiple
patents have been issued on the construction and design on the materials and process.
The FAA began conducting research in the 1990s to determine how to improve safety at airports where the full RSA cannot be
obtained. Working in concert with the University of Dayton, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and Zodiac Arresting
Systems, formerly known as ESCO (Engineered Arresting Systems Corp.) of Logan Township, NJ, a new technology emerged to safely
arrest overrunning aircraft. The system uses crushable concrete placed at the end of a runway to stop an aircraft that overruns the
runway. The tyres of the aircraft sink into the lightweight concrete and the aircraft is decelerated as it rolls through the material. This
Engineered Material Arresting System (EMAS) Technology has been refined and enhanced, resulting in the latest generation of the
product, EMASMAX, which has greater durability, ease of maintenance and longer product life. As of December 2013, EMASMAX
systems have been installed on 81 runways at 50 airports worldwide, with the two most recent international installations taking place at
Kjevik Airport in Kristiansand, Norway in the summer and fall of 2012. Previous international installations include two each at Sichuan
Province, China (2006), Barajas-Madrid, Spain (2007), Kristiansand, Norway (2012) and one at Taipei City, Taiwan (2011) . But it is
also important that the global aviation community follow the FAA’s lead in promoting the use of EMAS systems at airports around the
world. There are a number of initiatives in place designed to achieve this. The “Global Aviation Safety Roadmap”, a joint effort
document from ACI, Airbus, Boeing, CANSO, FSF, IATA and IFALPA submitted to ICAO, provides a strategic plan for aviation safety
that lists technologies, including EMAS arrester beds, as a preventive measure to eliminate or reduce the damage associated with takeoff and landing accidents. The recommendation underscores the fact that an EMAS bed should be installed at each runway end where
the terrain configuration does not allow for a provision of a RESA (240m) as recommended by ICAO Annex 14.
This EMAS of the port of NY and NJ authority was designed for commercial jet aircraft, but proved its value for commuter planes on
May 8, 1999 when a SAAB 340 commuter plane landed long and overran the runway at a high speed exceeding 70 knots. It was safely
stopped by an EMAS, protecting the passengers and the crew. The aircraft was extracted within 4 hours by removing the used material
and pulling the plane out backwards with a tow attached to each main gear. The runway was then immediately re-opened. Subsequent
repairs to the arrestor bed took only 12 days to accomplish. On May 30, 2003, an air cargo MD-11 landed long and overran the runway.
Once again, the aircraft was safely stopped by the EMAS, with no injuries and no major damage to the aircraft. Within a few hours, the
aircraft was extracted allowing the runway to go back into operation. On the afternoon of January 24, 2005, the EMAS was put to its
biggest challenge yet when a 600,000-pound Boeing 747 landed long and overran into the EMAS. As predicted, the aircraft was safely
stopped by the EMAS with no injuries to the crew and damage to the aircraft was limited to replacing nine tires. The aircraft went back
into service within days. Zodiac Arresting Systems’ EMAS has also recorded aircraft saves in Greenville, SC (July 2006: Falcon 900
corporate jet), Charleston, WV (January 2010: Bombardier CRJ-200), Teterboro, NJ (October 2010: Gulfstream G-IV), Key West, FL
(November 2011: Cessna Citation 550) and most recently, West Palm Beach FL (October 2013: Cessna Citation 680).
AEROMACS: AeroMACS is being developed exclusively for communication taking place between traffic towers and aircraft when they
are on the ground. The technology is digitally based, unlike the analog radar and communications systems currently used. The
difference between digital and analog is that digital produces "error-free" communication and allows for signal security through
encryption. It also allows digital data to be used for countless applications to maximize traffic safety and efficiency, Kamali said. The first
wave of applications involve employing a system of sensors on airport surfaces to continuously map the location of all aircraft and
vehicles. Right now, traffic control towers mostly use sight to determine the location of aircraft on runways and taxiways. Eventually,
AeroMACS could allow airports to use automation, Kerczewski said. The technology is also wireless, which is a cheaper alternative to
installing fiber-optic wire beneath airport surfaces.
Runway safety operations are improved by
providing pilots with improved awareness of
their location on the airport surface as well as
runway incursion alerting capabilities. To help
minimize pilot disorientation on the airport
surface, a surface moving map display with
own-ship position will be available. Both
ground-based (e.g., runway status lights) and
cockpit-based runway incursion alerting
capabilities will also be available to alert pilots
when it’s unsafe to enter the runway
environment. OI 103208 Improved Runway
Safety Situational Awareness for Pilots
Data communication between aircraft and
ANSP is used to exchange clearances,
amendments, and requests. At specified
airports, data communications is the principal
means of communication between ANSP and
equipped aircraft. “Terminal automation
provides the ability to transmit automated
terminal information, departure clearances
and amendments, and taxi route instructions
via data communications, including hold-short
instructions. The taxi route instruction data
communication function reduces requests for
progressive taxi instructions. Benefits arising
from this capability, in conjunction with other
NAS investments, include enhanced airport
throughput, controller efficiency, enhanced
safety, as well as reduced fuel burn and
emissions. OI 104207 Enhanced Surface
Operations
14 NBAA Top Safety Focus Areas: http://www.nbaa.org/ops/safety/top-safety-focus-areas/index.php
Operational Concept and Requirements for A- SMGCS (Surface Movement Guidance & Control System) Implementation Level 2,
Eurocontrol, http://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/content/documents/nm/airports/a-smgcs-operational-concept-andrequirements-level2-v2-1-20100630.pdf
Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and Control System
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Surface_Movement_Guidance_and_Control_System
Low Cost Ground Surveillance
http://www.volpe.dot.gov/coi/aso/work/ground-surveillance.html
ASDE-x
http://www.saabsensis.com/products/airport-surface-detection-equipment-model-x-asde-x/
Page 93 of 110
272
AN
S
T
272. Increased
traffic flows
involving closelyspaced parallel,
converging, and
intersecting
runway operations
Note: See also
273
Added February
2013
This improvement will explore concepts
to recover lost capacity through
reduced separation standards,
increased applications of dependent
and independent operations, enabled
operations in lower visibility conditions,
and changes in separation
responsibility between Air Traffic
Control (ATC) and the flight deck. OI
102141 Improve Parallel Runway
operations
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Impact of wake turbulence
Runway incursions
Near-mid-air collisions
Complexity of taxi clearances
Inadvertent crossing of a hold-line and/or entry
onto an active runway (with or without loss of
separation with an aircraft, vehicle or pedestrian),
Takeoff / landing without clearance,
Simultaneous takeoff and landing from the same
or from intersecting runways, or,
Takeoff / landing from/onto the wrong runway.
Notable example of a local advance
that will see system-wide
implementation: Recategorization
(RECAT) of Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) Wake Turbulence
Separation Categories at Memphis
International Airport (MEM). The FAA
currently uses six (6) wake turbulence
separation categories based primarily
on weight: Super (A380), Heavy, B757,
Large, Small+, and Small. RECAT
applies advances in knowledge of wake
physics over the breadth of the current
wake categories. Table 1 details the
current FAA wake separation
standards. The FAA recently approved
a recategorization of wake turbulence
separation minima from the current
standard to a new standard (RECAT
Phase I). This approval was based on
years of joint research and
development by the FAA, Eurocontrol,
scientific experts in wake, and experts
in safety and risk analysis. Categories
are now based on weight, certificated
approach speeds, wing characteristics,
along with special consideration given
to aircraft with limited ability to
counteract adverse rolls. RECAT places
aircraft into six (6) categories (labeled
A-F) for both departure and arrival
separation.
Airbus Flight Operations Briefing Notes, Runway and Surface Operations, Preventing Runway
Incursions;
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/safety_library_items/AirbusSafetyLib_FLT_OPS-RWY_OPS_SEQ01.pdf
RECAT of Wake Turbulence

http://www.faa.gov/other_visit/aviation_industry/airline_operators/airline_safety/safo/all_saf
os/media/2012/SAFO12007.pdf

http://www.eurocontrol.int/eec/public/standard_page/EEC_News_2008_3_RECAT.html

https://fdx.alpa.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=cTuAys1J2eg%3D&tabid=4536
The FAA Issues Notice To ATC Officials In Busiest Airports To Reduce Collision Hazards.
The Wall Street Journal (1/21, Pasztor, Subscription Publication) reports on an FAA initiative to
reduce the risk of airborne collisions outside of some of the country’s busiest airports. Often the
result of missed approaches and go-arounds, near-collisions are an issue previously highlighted
by the NTSB after investigating previous incidents at the JFK, Las Vegas, and Charlotte airports.
The altered landing and takeoff procedures, not spelled out in the article, are said to be taking
effect at those airports as well as 13 others, including seven of the busiest 10 airports. The notice
is said to apply to air traffic controllers at the affected sites and will apply to runways that are
oriented in such a way that the extended center line of one runway intersects with another.
Page 94 of 110
273
AN
S
T
273. Increased
throughput
utilizing improved
vertical flight
profiles and aids to
low-visibility
operations
Note: See also
184 for
information on
Synthetic/Enhanc
ed Vision
Systems
Added February
2013
The ability to complete approaches in
low visibility/ceiling conditions is
improved for aircraft equipped with
some combination of navigation derived
from augmented GNSS or ILS and
other cockpit-based technologies or
combinations of cockpit-based
technologies and ground infrastructure.
OI 107117 low Visibility/ Ceiling
Approach Operations
Guided Visual Approach concepts have
been successfully demonstrated and
implemented at SEATAC. These
involve using the aircraft autoflight
RNAV capabilities (letting the aircraft fly
the approach) despite being “Cleared
for Visual Approach to Runway XX” by
the Tower. The resulting flight track is
much more accurate than hand-flying a
traditional visual approach.
Near
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Head-up Guidance Systems (HGS) are
more and more prevalent on state-ofthe-art aircraft such as the Bombardier
C-Series, Boeing 787, and Airbus A350. The pioneer for this technology
was Alaska Airlines with their fleet of
737s. HGS permits precision flight path
guidance, energy management and
increased safety. The pilot views
critical flight data on the transparent
combiner in the forward field of view.
The pilot’s vision is out of the cockpit,
focused at infinity, not captured by
head-down activity.
Key basic features of the HGS include
recovery guidance in the event of
unusual occurrences (TCAS alerts,
unusual attitudes, windshear), flare
guidance during all approaches, and
low visibility takeoff and approach
guidance.
8.
9.
Failure to recognize the need for and to execute a
missed approach when appropriate is a major
cause of approach and landing accidents.
More than 70% of approach-and-landing
accidents contained elements which should have
been recognized by the crew as improper and
which should have prompted a go-around.
It is also observed than when an unstable
approach warrants a go-around decision, less
than 20% of flightcrews actually initiate a goaround.
Unstabilized and rushed approaches contribute to
approach and landing accidents.
Continuing an unstabilized approach is a causal
factor in 4% of all approach and landing
accidents.
Approximately 70% of rushed and unstable
approaches involve an incorrect management of
the descent-and-approach profile and/or energy
level (i.e., being slow and/or low, being fast and/or
high).
The risk of approach and landing accident is
higher in operations conducted in low light and/or
visibility, on wet or otherwise contaminated
runways, and with the presence of optical or
physiological illusions.
More than 70% of CFIT and runway
excursion/overrun events occur:
a. In low visibility;
b. In hilly or mountainous terrain;
c. On contaminated runway; and/or,
d. Under adverse wind conditions.
The lack of acquisition or the loss of visual
references is the most common primary causal
factor in approach-and-landing accidents.
Page 95 of 110
Airbus Flight Operations Briefing Notes, Approach and Landing, FSF ALAR Task Force
Conclusions and Recommendations;
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/safety_library_items/AirbusSafetyLib_FLT_OPS-GEN-SEQ01.pdf
Guided Visual Approach PowerPoint
20121030 Guided Visual Approach DCP DRAFT PDF

ATC clears an aircraft for an RNAV--‐ TF/RNP--‐ RF/RF or TF to ILS or any instrument
approach, and when the aircraft breaks out of the clouds and sees the airport or the
preceding aircraft on the same path, then ATC may clear the aircraft for a “Guided Visual
Approach.”

The aircraft must remain on the IAP LNAV/VNAV track guidance, under visual flight
conditions.

There is still considerable disagreement for a standard phraseology needed to implement
GVA.

Currently being demonstrated at SEATAC with notable success.
Head-up Guidance Systems
http://www.rockwellcollins.com/~/media/Files/Unsecure/Products/Product%20Brochures/Displays
/Head%20up%20displays/HGS%20Data%20Sheet.aspx
December 2013: http://accessintelligence.imirus.com/Mpowered/book/vav14/i1/p46
Honeywell announces a “Combined Vision System” that merges Enhanced Vision Systems (EVS
- based on forward-looking sensors) with Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS - that rely on GPSbased aircraft position with respect to a terrain database). This merged capability could offer the
safety and situational awareness benefits of both systems. By combining the benefits of both
EVS and SVS, the FAA might offer even more “credit” to pursue lower landing minimums.
Terrain representations using the on-board database have been seamlessly integrated with the
“out the window” view from the EVS camera and can be displayed on the Primary Flight Display
(PFD) together with navigational information.
274
AN
S
T
274. Widespread
deployment of
System Wide
Information
Management
(SWIM) on-demand
NAS information
services
NAS and aeronautical information will
be available to users on demand. NAS
and aeronautical information is
consistent across applications and
locations, and available to authorized
subscribers and equipped aircraft.
Proprietary and security-sensitive
information is not shared with
unauthorized agencies/individuals. OI
103305 On Demand NAS Information
Mid
1.
2.
Compromise of information:
a. Integrity
b. Availability
c. Confidentiality
d. Database obsolescence and challenges
of manual cross-checks
When security incidents occur affecting SWIM,
they will emerge in a particular context, and their
rarity and even their uniqueness may give rise to
unpredictable threats.
Added February
2013
2014 - Cloud computing:
The European Commission adopted in September 2012 the Communication "Unleashing the
potential of cloud computing in Europe" to stimulate the uptake of cloud computing to the benefit
of European customers and providers. One of the three Key Actions proposed in the
Communication focuses on standardization. In December 2012 at Cannes, the European
Commission and the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) launched the
Cloud Standardization Coordination initiative. The initiative was launched in response to a
request to ETSI from the EC to coordinate with stakeholders in the cloud standards ecosystems
and devise standards roadmaps in support of EU policy in critical areas such as security,
interoperability, data portability and reversibility (ETSI)
Cloud computing as an enabler to SWIM (SITA ATI tool).
https://www.sita.aero/products-solutions/solutions/ati-cloud
The concept of SWIM – System Wide Information Management - covers a complete change in
paradigm of how information is managed along its full lifecycle and across the U.S. and
European ATM systems. The implementation of the SWIM concept will enable direct ATM
business benefits to be generated by assuring the provision of commonly understood quality
information delivered to the right people at the right time. Given the transversal nature of SWIM,
which is to go across all ATM systems, data domains, and business trajectory phases (planning,
execution, post-execution) and the wide range of ATM stakeholders, it is not expected that one
solution and certainly not one single technology will fit all. Nevertheless, it is recognized that
global interoperability and standardization are essential and SWIM is expected to be an
important driver for new and updated standards.
For SWIM, it is necessary to ensure that the data, transactions, communications or documents
(electronic or physical) are genuine. It is also important for authenticity to validate that both
parties involved are who they claim to be.
An important logical control in a SWIM environment that may be overlooked is the principle of
least privilege. The principle of least privilege requires that an individual, program or system
process is not granted any more access privileges than are necessary to perform the task.
Defense in Depth: SWIM information security must protect information throughout the life span of
the information, from the initial creation of the information on through to the final disposal of the
information. The information must be protected while in motion and while at rest. During its
lifetime, information may pass through many different information-processing systems and
through many different parts of information processing systems. There are many different ways
the information and information systems can be threatened. To fully protect the information
during its lifetime, each component of the information processing system must have its own
protection mechanisms. The building up, layering on and overlapping of security measures is
called defense in depth. The strength of any system is no greater than its weakest link. Using a
defense in depth strategy, should one defensive measure fail there are other defensive
measures in place that continue to provide protection.
Page 96 of 110
275
T
Cre
w
275: Introduction
of touch-screen
displays and voice
recognition to the
commercial flight
deck
Added July 2013
Featuring a range of new multifunction
displays, the cockpit real estate on
many new and older aircraft has been
undergoing major renovations. And the
ways pilots are interacting with the
avionics is also changing. Sparked by
the popularity of the iPad and other
tablet computers, the touchscreen
revolution is getting underway on many
flight decks, and there is at least some
talk about the future use of voice
recognition. All of this activity is not
signaling the immediate demise of the
traditional switches, however. They are
still expected to be used to control
safety critical operations. In addition,
many push-button switch companies
are refining their offerings to address
changing circumstances while
supplying products for an expanding
legacy fleet. In October, Rockwell
Collins began flight testing the latest
configuration of its Pro Line Fusion
cockpit featuring the industry’s first
touchscreen primary flight display on
Hawker Beechcraft King Air B200GT.
Additionally, the company said the
system will debut as a retrofit option
from Hawker Beechcraft Global
Customer Support (GCS) for Pro Line
21-equipped King Airs. Certification is
expected by the end of 2013 with entry
into service in early 2014.
According to Guillaume Lapeyronnie,
cockpit marketing manager at Thales,
the company is currently working with
several aircraft manufacturers to get
their feedback about the concept of
touch-screen interfaces with the goal of
entering into service around 2018.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Absence of tactile & aural feedback
Fatigue due to extending arms to touch
Reach issues: location of the touch screen with
respect to pilot position; parallax error
Loss of dedicated, geographical location of
controls (muscle memory can’t be used as an
advantage in stressful situations)
Environmental effects: turbulence, vibration, glare,
etc.
Risk of such technology may increase especially when
there is the usual commercial or financial pressure to
sell and introduce products before full validation.
These new approaches to flight deck displays and
interfaces should preceded by a thorough
experimentation process to identify the key strengths
and weaknesses of such man-machine interfaces.
Certification requirements have to be created in close
link with validation tests.
Page 97 of 110
Human Computer Interaction Issues with Touch Screen Applications in the Flight deck,
Kaminani, Sridher, Iowa State University, Senior Software Engineer, Rockwell Collins,
th
proceedings of the 30 Digital Avionics Conference, Seattle, WA, October 16-20, 2011
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/commercial/Product-Focus-CockpitSwitches_78093.html#.Uh4scxZYVeU
NBAA 2013: Touchscreen Cockpit Systems and Next Generation Business Aircraft - See more
at: http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/topstories/NBAA-2013-Touchscreen-Cockpit-Systems-andNext-Generation-Business-Aircraft_80495.html#.UnF3TqUe1eU
What Happens Above: Airline industry mulls technology-driven changes to sterile cockpit rules,
January 27, 2014 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology
276
T
Op
276: Downsized
vertical fins due to
introduction of
active flow control
rudders for
increased yaw
control
Added July 2013
Sweeping jet technologies are being
evaluated to increase the sideforce (lift
coefficient) of vertical fins on airliners to
enable reduction in size and drag of
these components. This would allow
the vertical tail to be reduced in size
sufficiently to reduce the fuel burn of the
aircraft by 1 to 2%. The technology
would likely be employed on the shorter
version of a family of aircraft that have a
small tail volume. It may not be needed
on larger, longer variants of the same
aircraft type.
Mid
1.
2.
3.
Failure of the air supply system during critical
flight regimes
Degradation of the flow characteristics of the
small channels along the hinge line due to
weather and other contaminants
Resulting loss of lateral control
The technical challenge is to
incorporate existing civil aircraft safety
margins into systems that have their
origins in the neutral or unstable
characteristics of fighter aircraft.
A full-scale 757 tail, equipped with
active flow control, has demonstrated
increased rudder effectiveness
in 2013 wind-tunnel tests by Boeing and
NASA that could lead to smaller, lowerdrag vertical tails. (see notes)
Page 98 of 110
April 22, 2013: Trick of the Tail: On-demand flow control could mean fuel-saving smaller vertical
tails, Aviation Week and Space Technology, p. 14
Aerospace Daily & Defense Report (ASCII) -- November 15, 2013
A full-scale 757 tail, equipped with active flow control, has demonstrated increased rudder
effectiveness in wind-tunnel tests by Boeing and NASA that could lead to smaller, lower-drag
vertical tails. The four weeks of tests in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamic Facility at NASA
Ames Research Center, Calif., evaluated the use of active flow control (AFC) to increase rudder
sideforce on demand by delaying airflow separation over the deflected control surface.
Airliner vertical tails have their size dictated by one rare, worst-case scenario--loss of an engine
on takeoff--when the rudder must generate enough sideforce to counteract the asymmetric thrust
from a high-bypass engine slung under the wing.
In a family of aircraft, the tail is sized by the smallest member, where the rudder moment arm is
at
its shortest, and is oversized for stretched versions.
NASA's goal for the AFC project is to increase sideforce 20% on demand, and shrink the vertical
tail by 17% to reduce aircraft fuel burn by 1-2%.
With funding from NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) program, Boeing took a
tail from a 757 in the boneyard and refurbished and modified it for use as a wind-tunnel model,
says Ed Whalen, Boeing's research & technology program manager.
"Sweeping jet" AFC actuators were mounted on one side of the fixed stabilizer, just upstream of
the rudder hinge line to blow on to the leading edge of the deflected surface. The 37 actuators
were supplied with variable mass-flow pressurized air from an external source and were
individually addressable so that different spacings and zones could be tested.
A key goal of the full-scale wind-tunnel test was to determine an optimum actuator distribution
and mass flow for the next phase of the program, flying the AFC tail on a 757 in 2015 under
Boeing's Eco
Demonstrator program, Whalen says.
Focused on the takeoff and landing phases--when generating sideforce is critical--the tests were
run at 100-130 kt. Measurements included airflow tufting, surface pressures and the tunnel's
force-and-moment balance.
After baseline aerodynamic data were collected, the AFC tests were conducted.
Sub-scale tests had indicated that sideforce could by increased by up to 50%. The full-scale
tests showed
20-30%, "which is in the realm of what we need," Whalen says.
Boeing previously evaluated synthetic-jet actuators, but selected sweeping jets because they
scale up uniformly, Whalen says. Originally developed as logic devices for fluidic computers, and
now used in windshield washers for cars, they are solid-state actuators in which an internal
feedback loop causes the air jet to sweep across an arc. This increases their effectiveness in reenergizing and re-attaching separated flow over the deflected rudder.
In a practical application, there would be actuators on both sides of the tail. They would be ondemand,
on/off devices that would activate on the appropriate side of the tail when the rudder deflects
beyond a certain angle, to increase sideforce.
277
T
Op
277: Introduction
of stratospheric
aerial platforms for
Communication,
Navigation, and
Surveillance (CNS)
Air Traffic
Management
functions
Added August
2013
High-altitude solar-powered UAVs
called "atmospheric satellites" are being
proposed. The aircraft are designed to
fly up to 65,000ft (19,800m) altitude and
remain there for up to weeks at a time,
sustained by a ultra-long, high-aspectratio wings and a single large batterypowered propeller, itself powered by
thousands of high-efficiency solar cells
placed on virtually every possible
surface.
Near
Hazard mapping is nearly identical to AoC 100
Increasing operations of military and civilian unmanned
aerial systems in shared military, civilian, and special
use airspace, and is related to AoC 187 Shift in
responsibility for separation assurance from ATC to
flight crew, AoC 93 Increasing reliance on satellitebased systems for Communications, Navigations, and
Surveillance (CNS) Air Traffic Management functions,
and AoC 148 Increasing frequency of hostile acts
against the aviation system
DARPA's Vulture program calls for
developing technologies and ultimately
a vehicle that can deliver and maintain
an airborne payload on station for an
uninterrupted period of more than five
years using a fixed-wing aircraft. Boeing
is teaming with United Kingdom-based
QinetiQ Ltd. for the program.
The Vulture vehicle's goal is to be
capable of carrying a 1,000-pound, 5kilowatt payload and have a 99 percent
probability of maintaining its on-station
position.
Page 99 of 110
AUVSI: Titan Aerospace unveils ‘atmospheric satellites’;
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/auvsi-titan-aerospace-unveils-atmospheric-satellites389386/?cmpid=NLC%7CFGFG%7CFGUAV-2013-0819GLOB%7Cnews&sfid=70120000000taAj
April 2008, Boeing Awarded DARPA Contract to Develop Ultra-Long-Endurance Aircraft
Technologies; http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2008/q2/080421d_nr.html
278
PE
RS
OR
G
278: Increasing
disparity between
future pilot supply
and demand
especially among
the “feeder supply”
of crew
experienced in
smaller commercial
aircraft operations
Related to 80:
Reduction in
numbers of
aviation personnel
familiar with
previous
generation
technology and
practices
Added September
2013
Due to a combination of low wages for
entry-level pilots, expectations that pilot
candidates will self-fund their flight
training, and recent Congressionallymandated minimum flight hour
requirements, the projected future
demand for experienced flight crew for
big jets is in jeopardy. Regional airline
co-pilots and pilots, in the lower ranks
at least, don't make a living wage. The
more stringent FAA requirements
(seven times the previous number of
hours required in order to qualify for an
ATP certificate) mean that regional
airlines are scurrying to fill co-pilot and
pilot positions — and the shortage
comes precisely as major airlines,
including Delta and United, are
engaged in their first rounds of pilot
hirings in several years. A first officer
for a regional carrier, still on probation,
typically makes $18,000 to $20,000
during his/her first year before taxes.
Flight school loans can reach $100,000.
The average hourly pay for a 5-year
First Officer in the regional airlines is
less than $40.00 versus a 15-year
Captain at $92.00 per hour. These
hourly pay scales becomes even more
pathetic when you consider that
regional airline pilots, who are paid only
from the time the airline leaves the gate
to the time it arrives at the destination,
only are on the clock on average about
21.5 hours per week. This has created
a situation in which a very large number
of pilots sincerely believe that if they
don't work for peanuts or starvation
wages, somebody else will.
Major manufacturers are ramping up
their estimates for pilot demand in the
next ten years. A half million new pilots
will be needed to support projected
airplane deliveries. The days of
thinking pilots are a dime a dozen are
long gone and it looks like US regional
carriers are going to be hit hardest
(thanks to Congress and their 1500
hour solution) as rising salaries in far off
lands, with their offer of a better quality
of life and living standard are starting to
attract that experience offshore.
Airlines in places like Korea, India,
China and the UAE are having a hard
time filling their cockpits with qualified
personnel so they are looking to the
west to meet their demands. There truly
Near



Saddled with debts from college and pilot training
costs, regional airline pilots often endure an
intense, fatiguing flight schedule of short hops and
get paid on an hourly basis.
Attracting more young people to careers in
aviation must address the economic incentives for
potential pilots rather than just continually looking
at innovative ways to train pilots and technicians,
moving away from paper and chalkboard-based
learning to incorporate tablets, eBooks, gaming
technology and three-dimensional models.
Airline industry economic analysts and senior
management will require the motivation of
expensive, unmet aircraft lease payments
because their expensive assets have had to be
parked instead of out flying to generate revenue
because no one is around to fly them.
Salary comparison: The low end (regional) salary is
about what one regional aircraft manufacturer pays
their Safety Engineers after 20 years of service for
about 200 hrs. per month. Is safety now a commodity?
Contrarian point of view from Airlines for America
spokesperson, Katie Connell: "Long-term projections
about pilot hiring are inherently subjective as they are
based on assumptions about airline growth that have
often proved to be faulty," she says. "We expect the
major commercial airlines will be appropriately staffed,
and are not expecting any shortage within the next few
years."
This development should probably lead to expanded
initiatives like 7 NOV 2013 FAA rule to enhance
commercial pilot training with focus on stalls, upsets
and crosswind.
Page 100 of 110
This just doesn't fly: Some airline pilots barely make living wage
http://www.nbcnews.com/travel/just-doesnt-fly-some-airline-pilots-barely-make-living-wage8C11022539
Boeing forecasts increased global demand for airline pilots - See more at:
http://www.traveldailynews.com/news/article/56441/boeing-forecasts-increased-globaldemand#sthash.9jeBQaN4.dpuf
Regional Airlines' Pilot Shortage is Heading Toward the Perfect Storm – August 29, 2013
http://skift.com/2013/08/29/regional-airlines-pilot-shortage-is-heading-toward-the-perfect-storm/
When the Going Gets Tough, the Tough Cross the Pond
http://fapa.aero/content.asp?ID=73&Gateway=Career&Gateway=Interview
Discussion of: Pay-for-Job versus Pay-for-Training
http://www.jetcareers.com/pay-for-trainingjob-programs.html
279
AC
PE
RS
279: Increasing
implementation of
Auto Ground
Collision Avoidance
Systems (AutoGCAS on civilian
airliners)
The US Air Force is implementing
automatic ground collision avoidance
system (auto-GCAS) technology on
much of its fighter fleet nearly 30 years
after the technology was developed.
Auto-GCAS has the potential not only to
save lives, but also save money by
reducing accidents, which is ultimately
what convinced the Pentagon to adopt
the technology. Auto-GCAS dates from
the mid-1980s when the USAF was
working on the Advanced Fighter
Technology Integration F-16 prototype.
But while the system worked, data
storage was not sufficiently developed
for auto-GCAS to be implemented on
operational aircraft. Nonetheless, the
experience provided valuable data.
The current USAF effort has its origins
in the Automatic Collision Avoidance
Technology/Fighter Risk Reduction
Project that began in 2004. An AutoGCAS could significantly reduce critical
fighter-aircraft mishaps resulting from
pilot spatial disorientation, loss of
situational awareness, G-induced loss
of consciousness (G-LOC) and gear-up
landings. While cost savings are what
ultimately sold auto-GCAS technology,
its most important benefit is that it can
save lives. Indeed, engineers see no
reason similar technology could not be
installed in civilian airliners. Given the
potential to enhance safety, serious
consideration needs to be given to
adopt auto-GCAS for wider
applications.
Mid



Identify any areas where an Auto-GCAS might
impede a pilot's performance of standard
commercial aviation operations.
Because pilots are adamant about having final
authority over their aircraft, the AFTI test team
initially gave the pilot an ability to always override
the Auto-GCAS. Extensive testing, plus
discussions with F-22 test pilots, changed that
attitude.
"During all-terrain testing, we found that even the
slightest override of the GCAS autopilot in the
wrong direction would blast you through the
[MDA] floor," Mark Skoog said. "Trying to do
elevated-g fly-ups, we saw hundreds of feet of
additional altitude loss due to a 0.3-sec. override.
We came out of the program knowing that we'd
have less protection by giving the pilot total
autopilot override [authority]. So, we lock-out the
pilot in roll and yaw. He can add pitch up to the
angle-of-attack limits," and can always deactivate
the Auto-GCAS by hitting a "paddle" switch at the
base of the control stick, or pushing with 19 lb. of
force.
Page 101 of 110
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/savings-in-aircraft-losses-swing-the-argument-infavour-of-auto-gcas-390499/?cmpid=NLC%7CFGFG%7CFGFIN-2013-0917-GLOB; 13
September 2013
http://www.f-16.net/f-16_versions_article8.html
280
OR
G
AU
280: Dramatic
increases in the
fleets of 737 and
A320 derivatives
These two families of jet aircraft
represent more than 11,200 aircraft of
the current worldwide fleet of 22,085
large jet aircraft in current operation more than one-half. No other set of
aircraft types will have more affect on
the worldwide fleet than these.
In its latest 20-year Global Market
Forecast (GMF), the airframe
manufacturer, Airbus, projects single
aisle short and medium-haul aircraft
such as the Airbus A320
and Boeing 737 will garner the highest
demand, accounting for 71 percent of
new deliveries or 20,242 new aircraft
valued at $1.8 trillion. Low-cost carriers
from emerging markets are expected to
drive demand, as Boeing predicts
24,670 new smaller single-aisle aircraft
[737- & A320-class] will be needed for
those carriers.
Ongoing
A careful examination is needed of what safety
features of these two outstanding families of aircraft
together with their associated training, maintenance
and operational environment are working well today
and why; plus a careful examination of specific
strengths of these aircraft may be vulnerable due to
future changes in:
•
the aviation system,
•
airplane operational usage,
•
personnel demographics,
•
evolving infrastructure or other considerations
Because these new derivatives feature complex
interactions among many on-board systems, these
aircraft shouldn’t be viewed as simple modifications of
existing designs, but rather as all-new aircraft.
These two groups of 737/A320 aircraft
are as very safe as illustrated by the
accident rate data below:
hull losses hull losses with
fatalities
A320/321/319/318 0.16
0.26
737-100/-200
0.89
737-300/-400/-500 0.25
737-600/-700/0
0.13
/-800-/-9000
1.75
0.52
0.26
We simply must keep this huge and
significant fleet of 737s and A320s safe
as aviation evolves into the future. The
worldwide aviation system depends on
their ongoing safety performance.
Page 102 of 110
http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf
http://www.aviationtoday.com/the-checklist/Airbus-Projects-$4-4-Trillion-Commercial-AircraftMarket-Through-2032_80236.html#.UnqHbaUe1Ek
The figure below shows an estimation of the withdrawal figures from the worldwide Boeing and
Airbus fleet. Starting at about 2015, a steep increase of decommissioned aircraft is to be
expected. An operational approach taking into account both the economic and the ecological
aspects of available withdrawal will have to be available then if not before.
281
AU
OR
G
281: Changing
involvement of
certification
authorities
Under review
and not for
further
distribution.
Due to global harmonisation and industry
pressure to minimize the costs, the
involvement of certification authorities is
decreasing. In the current situation, the
validating authority is expected to accept the
original certification completely and is allowed
to retain involvement in the finding of
airworthiness compliance only when such can
be thoroughly justified and substantiated,
usually based on significant differences in
airworthiness requirements. It is expected
that the involvement of validating authorities
will even further decrease in the future,
mainly due to industry pressure.
Near



Compared to the past, when multiple authorities
would evaluate and validate the initial certification
of a design, the current situation has almost no
“redundancy” and opportunities to discover design
flaws and non-compliances after the initial,
national certification process anymore.
The result is a one time evaluation of a design
with more and more pressure to keep the
certification process as limited as possible.
In the long run, these developments may well lead
to a lower overall safety level.
Another development is the delegation of
airworthiness responsibilities to the industry
(e.g. Design Organisation Approval in case of
the JAA), where designated certification
engineers who are usually on the payroll of
the company for whom they are performing
airworthiness approvals actually perform
airworthiness tasks.
Page 103 of 110
2014 – Major re-organizations of state and regional safety entities due to cost-saving measures
will unsettle established safety processes.
Added December 2013
Transport Canada, Part V - Airworthiness Manual Chapter 505 - Delegation Of Authority
505.401 General; http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/civilaviation/regserv/cars/part5-standards-505-sub-ef2024.htm
(a) This subchapter prescribes the conditions under which an applicant may obtain a delegation
of authority exercised by a design approval organization, contains the procedures for obtaining
such a delegation and states the privileges and responsibilities related to a delegation of
authority.
(b) For the purpose of this subchapter:
(1) "Applicant" means a corporation that requests a delegation of authority in accordance with
this subchapter.
(2) "Delegate" means a corporation authorized pursuant to subsection 4.3(1) of the Aeronautics
Act to perform functions on behalf of the Minister subject to the conditions specified in this
subchapter.
(3) "Design Approval Organization" means the group of individuals in the employ of and
nominated by the applicant pursuant to subsections 505.403(c) and (d) and 505.405(e).
(4) "Design" means the preparation of drawings, processes, material specifications and reports
that, in total, define an aeronautical product or modifications or repairs to an aeronautical
product.
282
OR
G
AU
282. Increasing
reliance on
procedural
solutions for
operational safety
Statistics, showing that procedural deviation
is the highest-ranking category in crew- or
operator-caused accidents. This is also true
in the nuclear industry, and in the maritime
industry. However, the aviation industry is
moving toward an environment in which
airline standard operating procedures are so
rigidly enforced that line pilots rarely stray
outside their constraints. These pilots are
intimidated or bullied by trainers, check pilots
for even thinking about deviating.
Unfortunately that condition is what they get
comfortable with and it's how they eventually
learned to use automation systems. Standard
Operating Procedures (SOPs) were originally
intended to be guidelines. The result is a very
standard use of flight deck and ground
automation within the confines of those strict
SOPs. The assumption of the adequacy of
SOPs in all situations leads to the limiting of
not only the understanding of the automation
but the degree to which it's use is managed
and/or employed in the right situations. The
zealous enforcement of SOPs is seen as a
barrier to weakened flying skills, the lack of
pilot aviation knowledge, a decreasing level
of pilot experience throughout the industry,
and the rapidly rising level of automation
sophistication and dependence on it.
Management must recognize the danger of
over-procedurization, which fails to exploit
one of the most valuable assets in the
system, the intelligent operator who is “on the
scene.” The alert system designer and
operations manager recognize that there
cannot be a procedure for everything, and the
time will come in which the operators of a
complex system will face a situation for which
there is no written procedure. Procedures,
whether executed by humans or machines,
have their place, but so does human
cognition.
Proceduralization is linked to the general
push toward bureaucratization of an evergrowing number of aviation
activities. Certification and flight-standards
regulatory agencies progressively extend
their fields of intervention along procedural
lines, but oftentimes lack the operational
knowledge, experience, manpower, and an
in-depth understanding of the conditions
under which aviation safety has been
concretely achieved and socially
produced. Reinforcing proceduralization
remains a widely accepted, pro-forma
response when safety barriers are perceived
to be insufficient. It is easier to audit and
assess deviations from procedures or
processes than to understand and assess the
social construction of safety on a case-byoperational-case. Reports and analyses all
point toward complex organizational
adjustments and unbearable constraints that
little by little, push pilots, air traffic controllers,
mechanics and other players into uncharted
Ongoing










Lack of recognition of the appropriate use of
automation systems in the proper contexts
Confused, lack of certainty or simply lack of
confidence in when to employ procedures and
automation which often leads to its inappropriate
or ineffective use
Failure of regulated training syllabi to
communicate under what circumstances and how
automation is to be used.
Weakened pilot skills
Lack of pilot aviation knowledge
Decreasing pilot experience
Little experience among the population of freshly
minted MPLs and low time F/O's who really know
their SOPs
Strictly adhere to SOPs at the expense of the
aviate, navigate, communicate when presented
with a non-standard in-flight situation
In those cases where some function of the
automation provides a potential hazard, a manual
alternative must be provided
Inability to find written procedures for key safety
situations in neither: (1) the Flight Operational
Manual, (2) the Supplemental section in the flight
manual, (3) Operations Bulletin, (4) the aircraft
newsletter, and (5) nor on dispatch paperwork
Challenges:
The necessity of zealous enforcement of SOPs on
weakened flying skills, coupled to

Lack of pilot aviation knowledge,

Decreasing level of pilot experience throughout
the industry and the

Rapidly rising level of automation sophistication
and dependence on it.
How do we address this in training? Simple.

Recognize what the student needs when he/she
needs it.

Get off the regulated training syllabus and
address the issue right then and there.

Teach them why and how SOP deviation might be
the more effective solution and

What an appropriate level of automation looks like
in that situation.

It could give some weaker pilots increased ability
while elevating their confidence.
Knowledge is power (lack of knowledge gives self
confidence).
Page 104 of 110
Added March 2014
- Adapted from personal communications from Allan Dunville, Training Captain with Bombardier
Aircraft and Trapping Safety Into Rules: How Desirable or Avoidable is Proceduralization?,
Bieder, Corrine, & Bourrier, Mathilde, 2013, Ashgate Publishing Limited, Surrey, England



Degani, Asaf & Wiener, Earl L., Procedures in Complex Systems: The Airline Cockpit,
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man & Cybernetics, SMC-27(3), pp. 302-312
Trager, E. A. (1988). Special study report: Significant events involving procedures
(Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data AOED/S801). Washington DC:
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Perrow, C. (1984). Normal accidents. New York: Basic Books
283
OP
AC
Org
283. Increased risk
for non-standard
flights
Overall statistics for Accidents and Serious
Incidents show that non revenue flights have
a much higher risk of producing an accident
or serious incident than the revenue flying
which most professional flight crew routinely
undertake. A similar, though statistically
unproven conclusion may be drawn in
respect of revenue flights which are planned
to depart from, and return to, the same
aerodrome when operated by an airline which
predominantly carries out flights from one
location to another. A further, also statistically
unproven but highly likely, claim is often
advanced that airworthiness function flights
carried out by flight crew who are not trained
and experienced as professional test pilots
are also more likely to result in an accident or
serious incident. A causal factor can be that
the procedures documented within the
Operations Manual and procedures
implemented by an Aircraft Operator for such
flights are inadequate.
Ongoing
Two issues that have usually been associated with this
increased risk, either singly or together, both relate to
the substantially different nature of such flights from a
flight crew perspective compared to the routine of
normal operations:
•
An unfamiliar environment with a significantly
modified context for standard operating
procedures, in particular the possibility in many
cases of an absence of the usual en route period
of relative inactivity.
•
The apparent willingness of a minority of flight
crew making non-standard flights to apply less
than their usual rigor to the use of prevailing
standard operating procedures.
Skybrary:
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Mitigating_Risk_for_Non_Standard_Flights?utm_source=SK
Ybrary&utm_campaign=9950b456b4SKYbrary_Highlight_24_03_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e405169b04-9950b456b4276454641
While any definition of what is non-standard must be made by reference to what is standard for
any particular operator, a number of generalized cases can be identified:
•
Any flight that deviates from laid down Rules and Regulations.
•
Positioning or ferry flights (both fully and conditionally released to service)
▪
Pleasure, sightseeing or other ‘air experience’ flights
▪
Display or ‘exhibition’ flying for the benefit of persons on the ground
▪
Air-to-air photography
▪
Airworthiness function or check flights after maintenance input or in association with aircraft
acceptance or hand back
▪
Flights to develop operator-specific visual approach/departure procedures
▪
Flights undertaken specifically and solely for crew training or familiarisation purposes
▪
An exceptional freight-only flight made by an operator which does not normally undertake
such flights
▪
Airworthiness certification flights (unless flown by trained test pilots following their main
occupation)
▪
Formation flying where it is not part of Standard Operating Procedures.
Loss of Control
•
CRJ2, en-route, Jefferson City USA, 2004 (HF LOC AGC FIRE): On October 14, 2004, a
Bombardier CL-600 belonging to Pinnacle Airlines and on a positioning flight crashed into a
residential area in the vicinity of Jefferson City Memorial Airport, Missouri.
•
B737, en-route, west of Norwich UK 2009 (LOC HF AW): On 12 January 2009, a B737
operated by easyJet, overhead Norwich UK, experienced a loss of control during functional
checks of the flying controls. A successful recovery was achieved following significant loss
of height.
▪
A320, vicinity Perpignan France, 2008 (LOC HF AW): On 27 November 2008, an
A320 operated by XL Airways Germany, crashed into the sea at Canet Plage,
France, following loss of control, without recovery, during a low speed handling test
attempted at low altitude as part of a function flight.
▪
DC86, en-route, Narrows VA USA, 1996 (LOC AW HF): On 22 December 1996, a
Douglas DC-8-63 operated by Airborne Express, crashed in mountainous terrain near
Narrows, Virginia, USA, following loss of control attributed to mishandling during a
post maintenance function flght.
CFIT
▪
Air New Zealand DC10 crash Mount Erebus 1979
Loss of Separation
▪
SH36 / SH36, en-route, Watertown WI USA, 2006 (LOS LOC RE HF): On 5 February
2006, two Shorts SD-360-300 aircraft collided in mid air while in formation near
Watertown, WI, USA; both aircraft suffered damage. One aircraft experienced loss of
control and impacted terrain while the other made an emergency landing, overunning
the runway, at a nearby airport.
Non-Standard Flights are those that are
outside their normal operating experience for
the operating flight crew and/or their
Company.
Page 105 of 110
284
OP
AU
284. Wake Wake
Turbulence
Separation
Recategorization
related to AoC 82
Wake Turbulence Recategorization (ReCat)
creates Wake Categories as replacements for
Weight Classes for the purpose of
establishing and applying wake turbulence
separation minima used by air traffic
controllers to separate aircraft. Wake
categories are determined by aircraft weight,
wingspan, approach and departure speed,
and the ability of the aircraft to safely
withstand a wake vortex encounter. Wake
categories are used by air traffic control
facilities that are authorized to provide wake
turbulence separation under the Wake
Turbulence Recategorization Program.
Near
•
•
•
Loss of separation severity, as a percentage of
separation requirements may increase due to
smaller demoninator and reduced space for
recovery
Wake encounter severity may increase due to
reduced wake age at encounter due to reduced
separation. Wake encounter frequency may
increase due to consideration of encounter
tolerance used in setting standards.
Controller error may increase due to reduced
separation standards providing less room for
normal variability without error.
Currently, wake turbulence separation
minima are greater than minimum radar
separation minima in en route airspace,
however there is an effort to allow 3 mile
separation in certain en route airspace which
would change that. The separation function
does not change; however, the separation
minima do. This does not necessitate
changes in the procedures used by air traffic
controllers to separate aircraft.
Integration of Wake Category in CARTS and
STARS is complete. ATPA modification for
single runway separation is complete but not
required for implementation. ATPA
modificationfor dependent staggerred
approaches is ongoing. ATPA integrationin
PRM is being considered for ATL.
JO 7110.65 Appendix A and paragraphs
referring to wake turbulence considerations
will need to be updated. The initial
introduction of ReCat was accomplished
throgh the publication of JO 7110.608, and
may remain a separate order.
Regulatory oversight considerations: None,
unless automated systems are used to
determine whether an Airborne Loss Of
Separation Mandatory Occurrence Report
may be needed, or to monitor loss of
separation due to compression on final
approach which is monitored using quality
assurance and quality control processes. Any
automated systems will need to incorporate
the separation minima associated with Wake
Categories.
Page 106 of 110
FAA JO 7110.608; JO 7110.636; JO 7110.637; JO 7110.642; JO 7110.643; FAA
Aircraft Characteristics; JO 7210.632
Page 107 of 110
Title
Introduction of new aircraft aerodynamic
and propulsion configurations
Changes in design roles and
responsibilities among manufacturing
organizations
Introduction of new runway-independent
aircraft concepts
New supersonic transport aircraft
New hypersonic aircraft
Accelerating scientific and technological
advances enabling improved performance,
decreased fuel burn, and reduced noise
Air traffic composed of a mix of aircraft
and capabilities
Reliance on automation supporting a
complex air transportation system
Advanced vehicle health management
systems
New cockpit and cabin surveillance and
recording systems
Emergence of high-energy propulsion,
power, and control systems
Advanced supplementary weather
information systems
New cockpit warning and alert systems
Next-generation in-flight entertainment and
business systems
New glass-cockpit designs in general
aviation aircraft
Entry into service of Very Light Jets
Increasing implementation of Electronic
Flight Bag (EFB) for efficient and safe
operations
Increasing use of composite structural
materials
Ongoing electronic component
miniaturization
Highly-integrated, interdependent aircraft
systems
Changing human factors assumptions for
implementing technology
Delegation of responsibility from the
regulating authority to the manufacturing,
operating or maintaining organization
Trend toward privatization of government
ATC systems and airports
Shift toward performance-based solutions
and regulations
Remote Virtual Tower (RVT) operational
concepts
Societal pressure to find individuals and
organizations criminally liable for errors in
design and operations
Economic incentives to form partnerships
and outsource organizational activities
Global organizational models
Evolution in lines of authority, command
and responsibilities within the air transport
system
Increasing complexities within future air
transportation systems
Increasing size of maintenance, ATM, and
operations databases
Reduction in aviation personnel familiar
with previous generation technology and
practices
Technologies and procedures enabling
reduced separation
Evolution in the type and quantity of
information used by ATM personnel
Changing design, operational, and
maintenance expertise involving air
navigation system (ANS) equipment
Increasing heterogeneity of hardware and
software within the ANS system
Increasing reliance on satellite-based
systems for Communications, Navigations,
and Surveillance (CNS) Air Traffic
Management functions
Changing approaches to ATM warning
and alert systems
Increasing interactions between highlyautomated ground-based and aircraftbased systems
Introduction of artificial intelligence in ATM
systems
Increasing dependence on in-flight
electronic databases
Increasing operations of military and
AoC Number
001
Primary
Domain
T
AU
February-13
003
ORG
AU
July-05
005
AP
OP, T
December-11
006
007
009
T
T
T
OP
OP
ENV
December-13
November-13
December-13
011
OP
013
OP
ANS, AP
April-13
014
MRO
OP
June-09
018
PERS
AU
May-10
019
T
AU
July-13
021
OP
T
November-10
022
027
T
PASS
PERS
T
December-13
July-05
031
PERS
NT
January-10
033
036
OP
OP
T
PERS
February-13
April-13
039
T
MRO
November-07
041
T
MRO
June-05
043
T
MRO, AU
047
PERS
OP
November-13
051
ORG
AU
December-13
053
ORG
AU
July-05
058
AU
064
OP
AP, PERS, T
066
ENV
AU
February-12
067
ENV
OR
December-11
068
069
ORG
ORG
AU
June-2011
December-12
073
ORG
ANS
March-13
078
OP
ANS
January-11
080
ORG
082
ANS
OP, AU
086
ANS
OP
087
ANS
PERS, OP
089
ANS
T
April-11
093
ANS
SPACE, T
May-13
095
ANS
OP
April-11
096
ANS
T, AP
May-12
097
ANS
T
May-13
099
OP
ANS, MRO
September-11
100
OP
ANS, T
December-13
Page 108 of 110
Secondary
Domain
Date Updated
February-13
August-11
July-05
November-11
January-13
July-05
November-12
March-10
civilian unmanned aerial systems in
shared military, civilian, and special use
airspace
Redesigned or dynamically reconfigured
airspace
Increasing utilization of RNAV/RNP
departures and approaches by smaller
aircraft
Increased operations of lighter-than-air
vehicles including dirigibles and airships
Increasing operations of cargo aircraft
Very long-range operations, polar
operations, and ETOPS flights.
Emerging alternate operational models in
addition to hub-and-spoke concepts
Increasing numbers of Light Sport Aircraft
Accelerated transition of pilots from simple
to complex aircraft
Operation of low-cost airlines
Growth in aviation system throughput
Assessment of user fees within the
aviation system to recover costs of
operation
Increasing use of Commercial Off The
Shelf (COTS) products in aviation
Increased need to monitor incident and
accident precursor trends
Increasingly stringent noise and emissions
constraints on aviation operations
Changes in aviation fuel composition
Language barriers in aviation
Changing management and labor
relationships in aviation
Increasing frequency of hostile acts
against the aviation system
Increasing numbers of migratory birds
near airports
Increasing manufacturer sales price
incentives due to expanding competitive
environment
New surface traffic flow management
technologies
Increasing amount of information available
to flight crew
Introduction of Non-Deterministic
Approaches (NDA) and artificial
intelligence (self learning) in aviation
systems
Shift in responsibility for separation
assurance from ATC to flight crew
Introduction of new training methodologies
for operation of advanced aircraft
Shifting demographics from military to
civilian trained pilots
Increased dependence on synthetic
training in lieu of full-realism simulators
Shortened and compressed type rating
training for self-sponsored pilot candidates
Operational tempo and economic
considerations affecting flight crew
alertness
Supplementary passenger protection and
restraint systems
Increasing functionality and use of
personal electronic devices by passengers
and flight crew
Introduction of sub-orbital vehicles
Standards and certification requirements
for sub-orbital vehicles
Increasing frequency of commercial and
government space vehicle traffic
Entry into service of commercial, spacetourism passenger vehicles
Changes in the qualifications of
maintenance personnel
Paradigm shift from paper based to
electronic based maintenance records and
databases
Increasing use of virtual mockups for
maintenance training and for evaluation of
requirements
considerations affecting fatigue among
maintenance personnel
Increasing single-engine taxi operations or
taxi on only inboard engines of 4-engine
aircraft
Novel technologies to move aircraft from
gate-to-runway and runway-to-gate
High-density passenger cabin
configurations
101
ANS
OP
109
OP
ANS, AP
March-12
113
OP
ANS, AP
July-11
114
117
OP
OP
ORG
AU
March-13
March-09
118
OP
ENV
June-12
119
122
OP
PERS
T
OP
August-11
125
129
133
OP
ENV
AU
ENV
OP
OP, AP
January-12
June-11
July-13
136
T
ENV
138
OP
AU
March-11
139
ENV
OP
February-10
141
142
144
T
OP
ORG
OP, AU
AU
148
ENV
161
ENV
AP, OP
170
ENV
ORG
174
AP
ANS, OP, T
184
OP
PERS
April-13
185
T
OP
July-05
187
ANS
PERS, OP
July-05
188
OP
PERS
July-05
189
PERS
ENV
July-05
200
OP
PERS, T
April-13
202
PERS
AU
July-05
205
PERS
OP
August-13
218
PASS
T, AU
220
PASS
OP
June-13
221
222
SPACE
SPACE
OP
AU
October-11
April-11
223
SPACE
OP, AU
October-11
225
SPACE
AU, OP
December-11
226
MRO
ENV, PERS
November-11
230
MRO
ORG
236
MRO
T
February-10
241
PERS
MRO, OP
January-01
242
OP
AP, MRO
March-11
243
AP
OP, T
244
PASS
AU, T
Page 109 of 110
June-10
July-05
February-13
December-11
November-09
January-12
February-13
December-11
March-12
April-13
February-12
November-09
Implementation of SMS
World wide climate change trending
towards warmer temperatures
New aircraft recovery systems in general
aviation and commercial aircraft
Increasing demands for limited radio
frequency bandwidth
Shortage of rare-earth elements
Introduction of new training methodologies
for maintenance staff
Smaller organizations and owners
operating aging aircraft
Aging maintenance workforce
New pilot licensing standards
Decreasing availability of qualified
maintenance staff at stations other than
home base of operation
Reluctance among operators to implement
voluntary proactive safety mitigations
Shift in the demographics of newly-hired
air traffic controllers compared with retiree
skills and interests
Increasing use of DataComm Controller
Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC)
for weather information and
advisories/clearances
considerations affecting air traffic
controller alertness
Significant imbalances in regional
personnel supply and demand
Shift from clearance-based to trajectorybased air traffic control
Use of non-approved and/or poorly
maintained maintenance tools
Single-pilot cockpits for large commercial
transports
Increasing adoption of software defined
radio systems in commercial aviation
Decrease in turboprop fleets and
operations in the U.S.
Proliferation of voluntarily-submitted safety
information
Initiation of collaborative air traffic
management
Improved surface operations technologies
and procedures
Increased traffic flows involving closelyspaced parallel, converging, and
intersecting runway operations
Increased throughput utilizing improved
vertical flight profiles and aids to lowvisibility operations
Widespread deployment of System Wide
Information Management (SWIM) ondemand NAS information services
Introduction of touch-screen displays and
voice recognition to the commercial flight
deck
Downsized vertical fins due to introduction
of active flow control rudders for increased
yaw control
Introduction of stratospheric aerial
platforms for Communication, Navigation,
and Surveillance (CNS) Air Traffic
Management functions
Increasing disparity between future pilot
supply and demand especially among the
“feeder supply” of crew experienced in
smaller commercial aircraft operations
Increasing implementation of Auto Ground
Collision Avoidance Systems (Auto-GCAS
on civilian airliners)
Dramatic increases in the fleets of 737 and
A320 derivatives
Certification authorities involvement
245
246
AU
ENV
ORG
AP
247
T
OP
May-10
249
ENV
OP
July-11
250
251
ENV
MRO
T
PERS
February-12
January-10
252
OP
MRO
June-99
254
255
256
PERS
AU
MRO
MRO
PERS
OP
2008
July-05
July-05
257
OP
AU
259
PERS
ANS
260
ANS
OP, AP, PERS
261
PERS
AU
262
PERS
OP, ENV
263
ANS
OP, AP, AU
April-13
264
MRO
PERS, OP
July-12
266
PERS
OP, AU
267
T
OP
January-13
268
ANS
T
February-13
269
ANS
T
February-13
270
ANS
T
February-13
271
ANS
T
February-13
272
ANS
T
February-13
273
ANS
T
February-13
274
ANS
T
February-13
275
T
Crew
October-03
276
T
OP
July-13
277
T
OP
August-03
278
PERS
ORG
September-13
279
T
Crew
September-13
280
T
OP
November-13
281
AU
ORG
December-13
Page 110 of 110
March-13
June-10
November-10
April-10
January-13
April-11
December-13
2012

downloadable as pdf - NLR-ATSI

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