The 4th International Seville Conference on Future

Transcription

The 4 th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
LF-NA-24804-EN-N
The mission of the Joint Research Centre is to provide customer-driven scientific and
technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring
of European Union policies. As a service of the European Commission, the Joint
Research Centre functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the
Union. Close to the policy-making process, it serves the common interest of the Member
States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national.
FTA and Grand Societal Challenges:
Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations
ISBN 978-92-79-20118-9
Institute for Prospective
Technological Studies
9 789279 201189
Seville, Spain
12th – 13th May 2011
THE 4th INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE CONFERENCE
ON FUTURE-ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY
ANALYSIS (FTA) AND GRAND SOCIETAL CHALLENGES
Seville, 12-13 May 2011
Book of Abstracts
The mission of the JRC-IPTS is to provide customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process
by developing science-based responses to policy challenges that have both a socio-economic as well
as a scientific/technological dimension.
European Commission
Joint Research Centre
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Contact information
Address: Edificio Expo. c/ Inca Garcilaso, 3. E-41092 Seville (Spain)
E-mail: [email protected]
Tel.: +34 954488318
Fax: +34 954488300
http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu
http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Legal Notice
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is
responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.
A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet.
It can be accessed through the Europa server http://europa.eu/
JRC64647
EUR 24804 EN
ISSN 1831-9424
ISBN 978-92-79-20118-9
doi:10.2791/58275
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union
© European Union, 2011
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged
Printed in Spain
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T he 4 th I nternational S eville C onference O n F uture -O riented T echnology A nalysis
Book of Abstracts
Organisers
European Commission - JRC-IPTS
Xabier Goenaga, JRC-IPTS, European Commission
Mark Boden, JRC-IPTS, European Commission
Cristiano Cagnin, JRC-IPTS, European Commission
Vicente Carabias, JRC-IPTS, European Commission
Karel Haegeman, JRC-IPTS, European Commission
Elisabetta Marinelli, JRC-IPTS, European Commission
Scientific Committee
The Scientific Committee of the Conference consists of the following members:
Ms. Effie Amanatidou, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, UK
Dr. Mark Boden, European Commission, JRC-IPTS, Spain
Dr. Jennifer Cassingena Harper, MCST, Malta
Dr. Cristiano Cagnin, European Commission, JRC-IPTS, Spain
Mr. Vicente Carabias, European Commission, JRC-IPTS, Spain
Mr. Karel Haegeman, European Commission, JRC-IPTS, Spain
Dr. Michael Keenan, OECD, Paris, and Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, UK
Dr. Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions, Spain
Dr. Andrea Ricci, Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems, Italy
Prof. Ahti Salo, Helsinki University of Technology, Finland
Dr. Fabiana Scapolo, European Commission, JRC, Belgium
Mr. Jack Smith, University of Ottawa, Canada
Dr. Alexander Sokolov, HSE Foresight Centre, Russia
Dr. Matthias Weber, Austrian Institute of Technology, Austria
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Special thanks
At the onset of the conference, the JRC-IPTS ERA Policy Mixes, Joint Programming and Foresight
action would like to thank especially:
all paper and poster authors for their interest in the FTA Conference and the time they invested in
preparing the materials
all speakers, moderators, chairs and rapporteurs
the members of the Scientific Committee for their support in setting up the Conference Programme,
and particularly in the difficult task of selecting the best abstracts among the nearly two hundred that
were submitted
our colleague from the KfG Secretariat Ms Rosy Rueda, for her daily support in the organisational
aspects of the conference
our colleague Tennessee Wittney for his technical support
Useful links
Website of the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2011/intro.html
Website of the JRC-IPTS European Foresight Action:
http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.html
Website of the FOR-LEARN On-Line Foresight Guide:
http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.htm
Website of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS):
http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Website of the Joint Research Centre (JRC):
http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/index.cfm
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Preface
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) provides a common umbrella for the
foresight, forecasting and technology assessment communities. These closely
related communities play an important role in guiding policy and decision making
to anticipate and shape future developments. The “International Seville FTA
Conference” is a unique occasion for them to meet and to mutually enrich their
approaches.
Building on the success of the 2004, 2006 and 2008 events, this fourth edition
of the Conference will enable FTA experts, practitioners, and policy and decision
makers to share their ideas and knowledge in order to make FTA more policy
relevant. The focus, this year, is on how FTA can help shape and drive the
structural and systemic transformations that are needed to address grand societal
challenges. The programme embraces both methodological aspects and issues in
the application of FTA to a range of policy and business fields, including innovation,
sustainability, health and energy (to name just a few).
The growing importance of FTA and of the Seville FTA Conference is reflected
in the level of interest in this fourth edition. More than 200 participants from all
continents are expected to attend the Conference. A total of 188 abstracts have
been submitted (an increase of 22 from 2008) and the Conference Scientific
Committee has selected 70 papers (14 more than in 2008) to construct a
comprehensive programme. The selection process was not an easy one. Several
excellent contributions could not, for logistical reasons be presented as papers.
However, many of these have been delivered as posters and in the concise and
accessible “brief” format.
The proceedings of the Conference are available online as well as in the USB
stick distributed to all registered conference participants. In addition, many of the
best contributions will be published in special issues of academic journals, as was
the case for the previous editions of the event.
The Conference is organised by the ERA Policy Mixes, Joint Programming and
Foresight Action of the “Knowledge for Growth” unit of the Institute for Prospective
Technological Studies (IPTS), an institute of the European Commission’s Joint
Research Centre (JRC). IPTS is known as a European reference centre on foresight
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and is an established contributor to the structuring and enhancement of European
foresight capabilities. The ERA Policy Mixes, Joint Programming and Foresight
Action currently contributes with its foresight expertise to the identification of future
Research and Innovation priorities, to the formulation of framework conditions for
Joint Programming and to further advancing and disseminating qualitative and
quantitative methodologies and application of foresight in the EU.
The conference provides an opportunity to strengthen cooperation within the FTA
community and enhance its policy impact. In line with its main mission, IPTS
intends to apply both the scientific and practical outcomes of the Conference to
its policy support activities and translate them whenever possible into options for
policy and decision making. We hope you enjoy the event and we encourage you
to participate actively in all the discussions.
Mark Boden
ERA Policy Mixes, Joint Programming and Foresight Action Leader
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How to use this Book of Abstracts
You can use this Book of Abstracts as a guide during the Conference.
It includes the extended abstracts of the papers that will be presented during the FTA
Conference. The abstracts are organised by theme and follow the structure of the programme.
All Conference documents (including abstract, papers, posters and briefs) are also available
on the pen-drive you received with your Conference bag and are available on the Conference
website (http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2011/intro.html).
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Table of Contents
Organisers
................................................................................................................... 3
Scientific Committee........................................................................................................... 3
Special thanks................................................................................................................... 5
Useful links ................................................................................................................... 5
Preface
................................................................................................................... 7
How to use this Book of Abstracts................................................................................... 9
Table of Contents............................................................................................................. 11
Paper Abstracts by Theme................................................................................................. 15
Theme 1: Orienting Innovation Systems Towards Global Challenges................................ 17
Orienting Innovation Systems Towards Global Challenges........................................... Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward
Grand Challenges. ................................................................................................ Current and Future state of European Universities. Mini-scenarios for
Internationalisation and Openness of European Universities.................................. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: A Real- Time Experiment in
the Application of Foresight-assisted Processes................................................... Identifying S&T and Innovation Priorities for the Sector of Natural Resources
in Russia. ............................................................................................................... The Challenge of Global Foresight: Lessons from International Scenarios and
Roadmaps on Intelligent and Sustainable Manufacturing Systems.......................... From Grand Societal Challenges to Policies and Research Priorities:
Some Danish Experiences....................................................................................... Orienting International Science Cooperation to Meet Global ‘Grand Challenges’....... Fraunhofer Future Markets: From Global Challenges to Dedicated, Technological,
Collaborative Research Projects. ........................................................................ Exploring the Use of Futures Research in Innovation Systems..................................... Nanotechnology Research In India: Challenges and Futures Analysis.......................... NBIC, GRAIN, BANG, and TechFARM™: Advanced Sciences Convergence
for Surveillance of Emerging Science & Technology Trends. ............................... Scouting the Socio-Technical Landscape for Potential Nanotechnology Triggered
Agrifood Sectoral Transformations...................................................................... Archetypal Planning Situations: an Approach for Selecting FTA Tools for Global
Challenges. ........................................................................................................... 19
21
23
27
29
31
35
37
39
41
45
47
49
51
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Law and the Future. The Role of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) in Law:
The Case of Legal Research, Legislative Drafting and Legal Enforcement. .......... Exploring, Imagining And Creating Future Tv Experiences For/By Users:
A Case Study on Innovation Foresight................................................................... Future of Strategic Foresight..................................................................................... Foresight in an Unpredictable World........................................................................... Orienting Research and Innovation Policies Towards Grand Societal Challenges:
the Role of FTA in Anticipating Disruptive Transformations................................... Global Urban Sanitation System Hotspots: Mass Markets For Disruptive Onsite
Wastewater Treatment Technologies? An European perspective. .......................... 53
55
59
61
63
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Theme 2: Building FTA capacities for Systemic and Structural Transformations. ............ 69
Building FTA Capacities for Systemic and Structural Transformations........................ Bottom-up Exploration of Structural Transformation: Lessons from a Foresight
Exercise on the Future of Innovation..................................................................... Innovation Policy Roadmapping as a Systemic Instrument for Policy Design:
Examples from Victoria Australia.......................................................................... Implementing Systemic RTI Priorities: Recent Experience from Germany...................... Embedding Foresight in the Joint Programming Process for Research......................... Application Of Foresight Methods For The Determination Of Priority Research
Directions Of The Future...................................................................................... Social Attitude Toward Sustainable Development in 2025: a Case for Reinforcing
Scenario Design..................................................................................................... A Business Framework for Building Anticipatory Capacity to Manage Disruptive and
Transformative Change and Lead Business Networks Towards Sustainability........ Social Business as Future Institutional Technology in European Countries................. Uncertainty, Foresight and Strategic Decision Making: Evidence from
Leading Companies.................................................................................................. FTA Capacity Building in a Broad Sense: FTA to Change Prevailing Attitudes
and Organisational Settings that Prevent Participatory Strategy-Setting
Processes.............................................................................................................. ForWiki-A Tool for Building Foresight Capabilities in Enterprise 2.0 Driven
Organisations. ....................................................................................................... Research and Technology Organisation: Applying Diversified Roadmap Concept
at VTT, Finland...................................................................................................... Evaluating Local Public Foresight Studies from a User Perspective............................ Evaluating Future Technology Assessment – Canadian Case Study.............................. Exploring the Impact of FLA on National Innovation Systems. ...................................... Towards Impactful Foresight: Advise from the Advisors............................................... Navigating FTA in a Sea of Expectations....................................................................... The Challenges of Communicating the Foresight Study Outcomes to Better Advise
Decision Makers in Policy and Strategy Matters................................................... Foresight as an Innovation Policy Tool in Smaller Catching-up Economies:
Grand Narratives or Intelligent Piggybacking?..................................................... 71
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83
87
91
95
99
103
107
109
111
115
119
121
125
127
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Theme 3: Premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA methods.... 135
Premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA methods............... Combination of the Scenario Workshop and Wiki to Improve the Effectiveness
of Consensus Building Process............................................................................. Using the International Futures (IFs) Model for Scenario Analysis: Combining
Quantitative and Qualitative Methods..................................................................... Systemic Foresight Methodology................................................................................. Rethinking the Expertise of Experts in Assessing Disruptively Transformative
Futures. ................................................................................................................ Order Your Images of the Future Here........................................................................ Future Scenarios to Inspire Innovations....................................................................... Competitiveness Monitor: An Integrated Foresight Platform for The German
Leading-Edge Cluster in Logistics......................................................................... Trend Database Design for Effectively Managing Foresight Knowledge –
A Sophisticated FTA Content Base Architecture to Enable Foresight Processes. Web 2.0 for Foresight: Experiences on an Innovation Platform in European
Agenda Setting...................................................................................................... Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations towards
Sustainable Mobility - The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany................ Future of Transport: Foresight and Forward Looking Activities.................................. A Problem-Oriented Categorisation of FTA-methods for Transport Planning.............. Consistent Context Scenarios: a New Approach to ‘Story And Simulation’................... Technology Life Cycle Analysis Modeling based on Patent analysis. ............................ Energy Transitions: Adaptive Policy Making under Deep Uncertainty.......................... Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an Approach for Model-based Foresight
under Deep Uncertainty......................................................................................... Using a Combination of the CommonKADS and System Dynamics Methodologies to
Make Operational the Transition Between the Definition of a Joint Innovation
Strategy and its Implementation and Management................................................... Text Mining of Information Resources to Inform Forecasting of Innovation
Pathways................................................................................................................ Combining Quantitative and Qualitative in FTA: Rediscovery or Something New?.......... 137
Crosscutting Sessions: Horizon Scanning, Governance, Health and Energy. ................... On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning: Lessons from Initiating Policy
Dialogues on Emerging Issues................................................................................ Complexity Science Approaches to Disuruptive Events................................................. Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning....... Wild Cards and Weak Signals informing and shaping the European Research
Area (ERA)............................................................................................................ The Impact of Foresight and Forward Looking Activities in the Governance of
Emerging Technologies: The Case of Nanotechnology. ......................................... 141
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151
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187
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195
199
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203
205
207
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215
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Foresight and Policy Modelling on ICT for Governance: Exploring the Next
Frontiers............................................................................................................... Strategic Dialogues For Research Policy Making In Germany. .................................... Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy...................................... Backcasting Scenarios For Finland 2050 of Low Emissions. ........................................ A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
for China............................................................................................................... Linking Foresight to Action: A Health Case Study........................................................ Technology Acceptance of Home Care Service Providers............................................ Between Expectation and Uncertainty: Futures of Diagnostic Instruments for
Alzheimer’s Disease in Our Aging Society. ............................................................. 14
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Paper Abstracts by Theme
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Theme 1:
Orienting Innovation Systems Towards
Global Challenges
Theme 1: Orienting Innovation Systems Towards Global Challenges
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Theme 1
Orienting Innovation Systems Towards Global
Challenges
Different types of innovation will need to play significant roles in addressing major global
challenges. Yet, the direction of innovation and its implications are often highly uncertain while
innovation itself is likely to lead to a great deal of disruption to societies and economies over the
coming decades, for better and for worse.
The orientation of innovation systems – in terms of the problems they address, the actors and
linkages they include, and the manner of their governance – will largely determine the part
innovation plays in responding to global challenges and the extent to which it becomes itself
a source of disruptive transformation. In particular, the orientation and coordination of business
innovation, public research and higher education are crucial in shaping innovation developments
and have been a traditional focus of public policy intervention, including the use of FTA.
FTA can play a number of important roles in orienting innovation systems so that these can
better address global challenges. For example, FTA can generate insights that enable a better
understanding of global challenges and the means to deal with them through innovation and
policy intervention. It can do this by bringing longer-term perspectives and broader knowledge
bases into decision-making processes.
FTA can also assist in managing the uncertainty associated with innovation activities and with
the future more broadly. It can do this by providing spaces for both businesses and societies to
come together to better appreciate their mutual positions vis-à-vis future innovation directions,
as well as to build trust and to develop innovation partnerships. This coordination potential
extends to policy arenas, where FTA can enhance communication and understanding between
policy ‘silos’ and thereby support the emergence of an effective policy mix for innovation.
Finally, FTA can support organisational and societal agility through anticipation of developmental
routes and their consequences, and/or the articulation of widely shared visions that steer
evolutions along desirable pathways.
Accordingly, the aim of this conference theme is to explore the roles FTA plays in supporting
and directing innovation efforts that manage and/or promote major structural challenges
affecting contemporary and future societies and economies. Against this background, papers
and posters are invited that specifically address, but are not limited to, the role of FTA in:
•
Framing the major structural challenges facing contemporary and future societies
and economies, particularly with regards to bringing in longer-term perspectives that
incorporate broader knowledge bases;
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•
Generating insights and understanding on these challenges and the means in which
they could be dealt with through various forms of innovation and other interventions;
•
Better managing uncertainties associated with innovation, both by businesses and
societies as a whole;
•
Developing organisational and societal agility and resilience that can accommodate
and foster radical change as knowledge, ideas, interests and needs from different
sources combine;
•
Providing discursive spaces and platforms for a variety of actors, including citizens,
to come together to better appreciate their mutual positioning as well as to build trust
and partnerships vis-à-vis future innovation developments and to deliberate various
scenarios of the future;
•
Steering innovation efforts that integrate education, business, research and other
stakeholders, for example, through processes of prioritisation and advocacy coalitionbuilding;
•
Improving the coherence of policies addressing innovation, identifying the levers
for improving the dynamics of the innovation system and strengthening its actors
to enable structural transformations in contrast to ‘silo’ approaches, and outlining
realistic approaches in mixing supply and demand side policies;
•
Enhancing policy coherence between different levels of governance in support of
innovation.
The anchor paper on this theme is prepared by:
Cristiano Cagnin, JRC-IPTS, European Commission
[email protected]
Effie Amanatidou, Manchester Institute of Innovation and Research
[email protected]
Michael Keenan, OECD and Manchester Institute of Innovation and Research
[email protected]
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Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of
Innovation toward Grand Challenges
Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy
3-2-2, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0013 Japan
[email protected] [email protected]
Keywords: foresight, innovation, challenges.
Introduction
The world faces many complex problems like climate change and economic imbalance, and
each country has also country-specific problems like rapid aging of the population in Japan.
Technological and social innovations are expected to cope with these difficulties and achieve a
desirable future.
Foresight in Japan has changed its purposes and roles against the above-mentioned
background. Its main role was to identify key technologies or emerging technologies, looking
into the development of science, technology and society. But today it aims to discuss innovations
that have potential to change our society. Strong emphasis is put on how key technologies or
emerging technologies should be integrated and adequately embedded in society to achieve
social goals or tackle social issues. FTA is expected to give a framework for integrated
knowledge.
Methodology
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy in Japan conducted the ninth foresight
exercise in 2008-2010. The basic principle is to discuss science, technology and societal
environment that have the potential to change our society toward a desirable future.
The exercise started with the discussion on social objectives and their relation to science
and technology, considering changes on a global scale. Based on the discussion, four grand
challenges were set as goals of science, technology and innovation policy. Surveys by Delphi,
scenario writing and workshops techniques were carried out to articulate a framework for
successful innovation.
The procedure is characterized from two aspects: interdisciplinary or diversified discussion
and mission-oriented approach. Main points are; Delphi panels by cross-disciplinary theme,
not technological discipline; active participation of specialists in social science and humanities;
Theme 1a: Innovation And Grand Challenges
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discussion by a variety of participants including younger generation and local residents; and
focused discussion rather than comprehensive approach.
Results and policy impact/implications
Results show that “green innovation” and “life innovation” can be key issues for grand challenges,
which should be promoted with the improvement of base technologies and infrastructures. ICT,
indispensable technology for achieving social goals, is required to be converged with relevant
technologies.
System thinking, which includes not only technical systems but also social systems and provision
of services, is essential for embedding technologies in real society. The other accompanying
factor is management of technology-related issues, i.e. knowledge base, business, risk,
globalization, human resources, and so on. These indicate that the closer the relation among
science, technology and society will be in the future, the more interdisciplinary involvements will
be expected.
Conclusions
The 9th S&T Foresight in Japan was implemented under the principle of contribution to future
society. Integrated discussion that values diversity of disciplines can lead to identification of
grand challenges where innovation is required.
References
NISTEP (2010), Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society – Summary on the 9th Science and
Technology Foresight, NISTEP REPORT No.145
NISTEP (2010), The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - The 9th Delphi survey, NISTEP REPORT
No.140
NISTEP (2010), The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - Future Scenarios Opened up by Science and
Technology, NISTEP REPORT No.141
NISTEP (2010), The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - Capability of Local Regions for the Green
Innovation, NISTEP REPORT No.142
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Current and Future state of European Universities.
Mini-scenarios for Internationalisation and Openness of
European Universities
Karel Haegeman *a, Susana Elena Perez *,
Ana Fernandez Zubieta *, Ozcan Saritas **
*European Commission – JRC-IPTS Edificio EXPO. C/ Inca Garcilaso, 3. 41092 Seville
**Manchester Inst. of Innovation Research, University of Manchester Oxford Road,
Manchester M13 9PL
a
Corresponding author [email protected]
Keywords: Universities, internationalisation, openness, mini-scenarios.
Introduction
In the past decade, European universities have been immersed in intensive transformation
processes in order to face the new challenges of more distributed nature of research, innovation
and knowledge production. As key actors in innovation systems and in the production and
dissemination of knowledge, universities are at the heart of the European policy agenda.
Universities have a crucial role in meeting the needs of the knowledge society and achieving
equity and social justice in Europe, while functioning as a source of European STI competitiveness
at the global level. In this context, they are increasingly questioned concerning their fitness for
addressing the challenges of fast moving social, technological and business developments.
The ‘Europe 2020’ strategy has explicitly recognised the central role of universities in allowing
Europe to exit from the crisis and to enter into a smarter, greener and more inclusive economy. As
key research performers, universities need to actively respond to changes. The Communication
‘Delivering on the Modernisation Agenda for Universities: Education, Research and Innovation’
(European Commission, 2006) recognised its importance by underlying the need for universities
to become innovative and responsive to changes.
There is an increasing demand for universities to become more open and internationally oriented
(European Commission, 2010). There is also an increasing market for qualified graduates that
are capable to work in a multi-cultural and globalised society. The recruitment of international
students is an important indication of globalisation of universities (Cudmore, 2006; Burnett
& Huisman, 2010). Open and international universities are expected to be able to compete
globally and to be more productive.
To make universities more competitive and sustainable over time, the current paper suggests
the use of Foresight methodologies and techniques to increase their awareness of present and
upcoming challenges and develop policies and actions within the context of an overall European
Higher Education and Research Strategy. The paper aims to better understand the views on
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the future state of universities in Europe. Mini-scenarios are constructed to describe European
universities in 2025. We also aim to establish a typology of universities based on their present
degree of internationalisation and openness. Finally, we would like to analyse the universities’
views on the future change according to their present profile with the aim of discussing whether
institutional factors and present and future views of universities influence their responses to
globalisation.
Methodology
The information of the study comes from a data collection exercise on 200 research-active
universities and a survey to university managers (of the same universities) and university
researchers. The data collection exercise, done by the “European Observatory of ResearchActive Universities”, gathers data on institutional variables and covers universities of 33 ERA
countries (27 Member States and Croatia, Iceland, Israel, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey).
The survey, organised in the frame of the project ´Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher
Education´, collects views of university managers and researcher on the relationship between
higher education and the European Research Area, with a clear focus on research. The survey
aimed to offer a European perspective of present and future challenges of European universities.
It collected the opinions of senior managers (N=144) and research and teaching staff (N=308) at
universities across Europe. The issues addressed in this survey include internationalisation and
third mission activities of universities.
Mini-scenarios are constructed combining individual scenario proposals with a multi-criteria
analysis of issues assessed by the target group. Scenarios are then linked to their probability of
occurrence as seen by university managers and to the universities´ current state.
Results and policy implications
The main results of the study include a description of a set of mini-scenarios on the future of
European universities in 2025 and a typology of international and open European universities.
Finally, we check whether or not international and open European universities have different
views on the future.
The policy implications aim to suggest different actions for universities and to contribute to the
policy priority setting for the new “Modernisation Agenda for European Universities’’ with actions
suggested by universities (bottom-up approach).
Conclusions
We find that global and international mini-scenarios are the most probable. We find a positive
correlation between internationalisation and openness of universities. We expect universities
with more international and open profile to see the global mini-scenario as the most probable for
European universities in 2025. We further suggest some policy actions for universities derived
from managers and researchers opinions.
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References
Burnett, S and Huisman, J. (2010) Universities’ responses to globalisation: the influence of organisational
culture. Journal of studies in Internatinal Education, 14 (2), 117-142.
Cudmore, G. (2006) Globalisation, internationalization and the recruitment of international students in higher
education, and in the Ontario Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology. Canadian Journal of Higher
Education, 35 (1), 37-60.
European Commission (2006) Delivering on the Modernisation Agenda for Universities: Education, Research
and Innovation, COM(2006) 208 final.
European Commission (2010) Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union. Brussels. Available
at: http://ec.europa.eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/innovation-union-communication_
en.pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none
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Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges:
A Real- Time Experiment in the Application of
Foresight-assisted Processes
Ron Johnston
Australian Centre for Innovation, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
[email protected]
Keywords: foresight, grand challenges, FTA capacity building.
Introduction
The Australian Government established a National Enabling Technologies Strategy (NETS) in
2010. A major objective of this strategy is “to increase government, industry and the community’s
understanding of the ways in which applications of enabling technologies may help to address
major global and national challenges and to encourage the responsible development and uptake
of these technologies.“ (DIISR, 2010)
Activities under the NETS include the identification of major challenges which the enabling
technologies may address, facilitation of projects that demonstrate applications of enabling
technologies, and identification of future skill, capability and infrastructure needs.
An Expert (Foresight) Forum for Enabling Technologies has been established to guide and
advise on the implementation of the strategy. As Chairman of the Forum, this author, with
extensive experience in the design and application of foresight, has launched a number of
‘learning exercises’ designed to examine the key influences, be they theoretical, methodological,
structural, organisational, economic or cultural, in the effective framing and promotion of
initiatives to address future major challenges.
Methodology
The issues that have been examined include:
•
•
•
What are the important factors in framing arguments about addressing potential major
challenges that make them more influential with government officials?
What are the key aspects of structure and content of processes that contribute to
effective stakeholder engagement, particularly on the part of industry?
What is the relative effectiveness of various approaches to steering collaborative
innovation targeted on the enabling technologies?
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The context for the research underpinning this paper is a series of foresight workshops with a
variety of industry sector representatives. These workshops were designed to identify potential
major challenges impacting on the sector and the role of enabling technologies in responding to
these challenges. During this process, the views of participants from industry and government
on the three issues identified above were surveyed and also were the subject of exercises
designed to elicit opinions and experience.
In addition, detailed interviews were held with a range of government officials to establish their
views about what their expectation of foresight were, and how they could see it contributing to
their roles and responsibilities.
The results of this analysis reveal that government officials are primarily interested in the extent
to which foresight can reduce uncertainty in their decision-making and provide guidance about
possible technological developments and their consequences ie to reduce or remove possible
surprises. In summary their driving interest is in moving from multiple possible futures to a
single probable and preferred future which would be amenable to their analytical skills and
procedures.
In contrast, industry representatives were more interested in the extent to which foresight
processes could open up to them the possibility of new business and market opportunities.
Their driving interest, in contrast to that of government officials, was to increase divergence in
order to discover new possible futures, to which they could apply their strategic planning tools
to pursue a beneficial outcome.
Conclusions
These findings indicate both the need to tailor foresight processes and messages to the very
different audiences of government and business, and the importance of understanding these
different perspectives in attempting to facilitate dialogue between stakeholders and in order to
address grand challenges effectively.
References
Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research, http://www.innovation.gov.au/Industry/
Nanotechnology/NationalEnablingTechnologiesStrategy/Pages/default.aspx, Accessed 7 March 2011.
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Identifying S&T and Innovation Priorities for the
Sector of Natural Resources in Russia
Shashnov, S. and Sokolova, A.
Foresight Centre, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge,
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
[email protected], [email protected]
Keywords: Critical technologies, S&T foresight, innovation priorities, sector of natural
resources.
Introduction
Russia possesses one of the greatest stocks of mineral resources, fossil fuels and water in
the world. The extensive exploitation of this stock and inefficient management system have
led to serious problems: environmental pollution, a need to move extraction to remote oilfields and ore deposits, inefficient extraction technologies et al. These issues were addressed
in a number of nation-wide Foresight exercises accomplished over the last few years [1,
2], including two rounds of identification of national critical technologies (2006 and 2010),
national S&T Delphi: 2025 and S&T foresight:2030.
In 2008, the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources initiated a project aimed at the identification
of innovation development priorities in the area of natural resources that was focused more on
the efficient management practices. Identified priorities indicated main activities within natural
resources management system for mid- and long-term perspectives.
Methodology
The general methodology of all these projects implied a broad consultation of various parties
concerned and formulation of a consensus opinion based on expert analysis regarding
preferential mid- and long-term routes for development of the Russian natural resources. An
important issue was to integrate the results obtained into the national innovation strategy.
The innovation priorities were formulated in response to the current challenges faced by
the natural resources complex. Within this approach the core problems in natural resources
management were identified, as well as the key goals and relevant measures to meet those
challenges. The priorities for innovation development were established for major natural
resources: mineral and raw materials; water resources; climate; atmosphere air; biodiversity;
dangerous natural phenomena, etc. According to the Foresight methodology, various expert
and analytical studies were carried out, including desk research, statistical analysis, in-depth
interviewing of leading experts; expert surveys and topical panel discussions. Overall, about 150
Theme 1b: Innovation And Sustainability
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key experts from different research areas representing leading research and industry centers
were engaged in the study. As a result, priorities have been formulated for natural resources
sector, as well as for every specific subsector in particular.
Results and policy implication
The projects were strongly interrelated in terms of the methodological approaches and application
of results. In the projects framework there were provided the description of the most important
S&T trends in the field of natural resources management and environment protection till 2030
and identification of the most promising areas of innovation development in the concerned field.
Besides, suggestions on large innovation projects which could have considerable social and
economic impact have been formulated.
They enabled to identify prospective technologies and products in the area of natural resources,
as well as prospective markets of their application where Russia could gain advantage. The
project results were used to develop federal targeted programmes to support the national
science, technology and innovation system.
The overall top priority as identified by experts was to formulate a Green-growth “whole-ofgovernment approach”. This implies the formulation of policy principles relying on the best
international practices of innovation system management which consists of joint participation of
different parties in policy-making and policy implementation. General and more than 30 “sectorspecific” innovation priorities would be used in the design of strategic and regulatory documents
which define the main public policy directions in this field.
Conclusions
Results of these projects can be widely used by different stakeholders. Project findings on
identification of innovation development priorities were used for formulating basic strategic
documents of the Ministry of Natural Resources (Geology strategy, Water strategy). Scientific
community could use results of long-term Russian S&T foresight for analysis of the most
demanded R&D areas. Business community could use all these results for development of
company strategies and choice of investment projects related to technological modernization.
Besides, direct results of these projects allow setting up a broad expert network, to inform the
expert community with basic Foresight principles and to gain substantial methodological and
practical Foresight experience for further activities in this area.
References
Sokolov A. Russian Critical Technologies 2015. Collection of EFMN Briefs. Part 1, Directorate-General for
Research Co-operation. Brussels: European Commission, 2008.
Sokolov A. Science and Technology Foresight in Russia: Results of a National Delphi. Future oriented
technology analysis. Book of abstracts. Seville, 2008.
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The Challenge of Global Foresight:
Lessons from International Scenarios and
Roadmaps on Intelligent and Sustainable
Manufacturing Systems
Cristiano Cagnin
European Commission – JRC-IPTS Edificio EXPO. C/ Inca Garcilaso, 3. 41092 Seville,
[email protected]
Totti Könnölä
Impetu Solutions, [email protected]
Keywords: Societal Challenges, International Foresight, Intelligent Manufacturing Systems,
Scenarios, Roadmaps.
Introduction
It is widely recognised that major societal challenges require coordinated efforts beyond regional
and national boundaries to be effective. This lay down an important challenge also for FTA
activities to be truly international. This paper addresses FTA and in particular foresight design
and management in the context of international agenda setting activities.
Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences, and numerous participants, for
example, bring in novel aspects in foresight design and management on top of lessons learned
from earlier exercises around the world. Towards this end, we examine the available literature on
international foresight management and conceptualise design and managerial issues particularly
relevant in the international context. For instance, scalability of activities is a precondition for
ensuring wide and balanced participation of different stakeholders in due time. Also responsiveness
towards stakeholders’ interests and offering equal opportunities for contributing to the exercise
are pertinent to meet the diverse expectations. We describe and analyse a recent foresight
exercise that we designed and coordinated in the context of international coordination of research,
education and innovation on intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS).
Methodology
IMS2020 is an FP7 project funded by the NMP division of the European Commission within the IMS
Framework, conducted by an international consortium from Europe, Japan, Korea, Switzerland and
the USA. The project engaged participants from these and many other countries.
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The main objective was the creation of five research roadmaps towards IMS by the year 2020
and beyond. Each roadmap focused on one of 5 key areas (KATs): sustainable manufacturing;
energy efficient manufacturing; key technologies; standardisation; and education. The aim
was to identify relevant manufacturing research topics and the supporting actions which are
needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in
each of these areas. Four scenario snapshots of possible states of the future by 2025 were
developed. Based on these the IMS2020 Vision was defined. The final five roadmaps were
designed towards such Vision.
We elaborated a modular foresight architecture that allowed engagement of numerous
participants in different roles and with different kinds of contributions. Much of the joint work was
conducted using online tools including collaborative platforms like wikipedia, online surveys and
video/ teleconferences combined with carefully prepared structured interviews and face-to-face
meetings. The meetings were dedicated to the crucial phases such as the scenario formulation
and the common definition of the vision for the roadmapping work, which created a sufficient
basis to continue refinement of the work in dedicated online spaces as well as an open wiki
platform.
The background analysis involved both an analysis of i) scientific literature and of ii) the main
areas covered by eleven roadmaps coming from Europe, Japan, US, Korea and Canada. In
the same line, a more detailed analysis of the variables used to build scenarios/roadmaps
and the research topics within the analysed roadmaps were undertaken for all five KATs. The
results were the basis for the selection of the variables used to develop the scenarios within the
IMS2020 project. Moreover, the online questionnaires and interviews with key actors took into
account those research topics already mapped so that new topics could be identified.
Both the devised vision and related roadmaps, which include the milestones of innovation
activities (research topics, management and policy actions) identified, have been open for wide
consultation in the IMS region and beyond.
The roadmaps depart from the implementation of the identified research topics and supporting
actions between 2011 and 2013, and show the possible impacts or benefits that these could
deliver in a timeline towards the IMS2020 Vision. These were shaped around: (i) research topics
which act as ‘bricks’ with short term implementation needed (starting in 1-3 years and to be
concluded in 3-7 years); and (ii) actions that are of mid-term implementation (7-10 years), with
a wider focus and linked to the research topics, but equally important in attaining the IMS2020
Vision.
Both the research topics and supporting actions identified for all 5 KATs as well as the expected
impacts of their effective implementation have been included in a timeline between 2011 and
2020. Final results have been presented in the form of roadmaps between today and end
of FP8 to enable the EU Commission to identify and select research priorities to be funded
in collaboration between today and 2020. Results were used to shape further FP7 calls are
currently being used in defining FP8.
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Conclusions
The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on some challenges in organising
international foresight exercises. The scalable design was crucial for adapting to geographical
dispersion and numerous participants. Furthermore, the responsiveness to stakeholder needs
and interests in course of the exercise was crucial to keep the participants motivated and to
share the ownership of the outcomes. Building on this experience, we conclude that the online
working tools can offer major support for efficient and participatory management of foresight
when their use is integral part of the design of the whole exercise.
References
Cagnin, C. (2009). Scenarios Snapshots and IMS2020 Vision. Deliverable D2.2. of IMS2020 Project Number
233469, http://www.ims2020.net.
Könnölä, T. (2007). Innovation roadmap: exploring alternative futures of industrial renewal. Contributed paper
for the 2007 conference on corporate R&D (CONCORD): new and emerging issues in corporate R&D, JRCIPTS, 8-9/10/07.
Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A. Kivisaari, S., Koivisto, R. (2009). Management of foresight portfolio:
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic
Management 21(3), 381-405.
33
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From Grand Societal Challenges to Policies and
Research Priorities:
Some Danish Experiences.
Per Dannemand Andersen
Keywords: Priority setting, Strategic research, Politics.
Introduction
This paper aims to contribute to the discussion on FTA’s role in dealing with such grand
challenges and in setting national priorities for strategic research in order to respond to the
challenges.
All countries are facing grand challenges of a global scale. Denmark share most of these
challenges with comparable European nations, but the country also has been exposed to a few
unique longer-term challenges such as decreasing revenues from the North Sea oil and gas
recourses and challenges related to values and foreign policy.
Denmark has a strong tradition for consensus based policy making and a weak tradition of policy
making based on systematic analyses of existing knowledge (Togeby et al. 2003). At the same
time planning culture in Denmark is characterized by a low level of uncertainty avoidance and
low power distance (Hofstede, 1984). Together, this creates what has been characterised as a
specific “style” for dealing with foresight and grand challenges (Keenan and Popper, 2008)
In the spring of 2005, the Danish Government launched a process, the Globalisation Council process,
to prepare and present a vision and a strategy for the development of Denmark to become a leading
growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society. The process led to a comprehensive strategy titled:
Progress, Innovation and Cohesion Strategy for Denmark in the Global Economy. The strategy
contained 350 detailed initiatives, which together would lead to comprehensive reforms of policies
on education, training, research and entrepreneurship, as well as changes in the general framework
conditions for growth and innovation. A major part of this strategy has subsequently been translated
into legislation. Concerning FTA methods the process of the Globalisation Council included both
expertise oriented elements (expert panels, expert discussion papers), evidence oriented elements
(indicators and fact reports) as well as interaction oriented elements (conferences, workshops,
stakeholder inclusion, citizen inclusions).
One of the elements of Globalisation strategy was initiatives to improve the basis for the political
priorities of the funding for strategic research. The Government (and the Parliament) aimed at
a catalogue of themes for future strategic research to meet the society’s long-term challenges
— both threats opportunities. This was the background for Research2015 process. The
Research2015 process included elements such as horizon scanning, expert panels, user panels,
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Book of Abstracts
dialogue meetings, conferences and workshops (VTU, 2008). A catalogue of 21 themes formed
the basis for the budget negotiations for the Fiscal Act for 2009 and 2010, where 11 for the themes
were allocated funding for strategic research. Sustainability oriented research such as energy,
environment, climate, climate adaption and sustainable transport & infrastructure accounts for
76% of the implemented priorities. Contrary to many other national foresight and science prioritysetting exercises the Research2015 process was exposed to a thorough evaluation (VTU 2009).
Measured by the success criteria of this evaluation the Research2015 is generally considered
as a successful exercise. This success might be due to the fa This might be due and by success
criteria suggested in foresight literature (Calof and Smith, 2010), Tje
Methodology
The paper is based on publicly available documents on 1) the governmental Danish science,
technology and innovation system, 2) the Government’s Globalisation council process, and
finally 3) the Research2015 process of priority setting of the strategic research.
Conclusions
The paper concludes on the results and impact of the Research2015 process and discusses
the role of FTA methods in analysing grand societal challenges and in generating priorities
for strategic research. Furthermore the paper discusses how political traditions and national
preconditions affect the success of using FTA in such processes.
References
Calof, J.; Smith, J. E. (2010). Critical success factors for government-led foresight. Science and Public Policy,
Vol. 37, No. 1, pp31-40.
Hofstede, G. (1984). Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management,
Vol. 1, No. 2, pp81-99
Keenan, M.; Popper, R. (2008). Comparing foresight ”style” in six world regions. Foresight, Vol 10. No. 6.,
pp16-38.
Regeringen (2000). Regeringens Erhvervsstrategi.dk21, Statens Information, ISBN87-90643-30-5.
Regeringen (2006). Fremgang, fornyelse og tryghed. Strategi for Danmark i den globale økonomi, 159p.
Togeby, L.; Jørgen Goul Andersen; Peter Munk Christiansen; Torben Beck Jørgensen; Signild Vallgårda (2003).
Demokratiske udfordringer. Kort udgave af Magtudredningens hovedresultater.( Power and Democracy in
Denmark) ISBN: 87-91164-25-7
VTU (2008). FORSK2015. Et prioriteringsgrundlag for strategisk forskning, Ministeriet for Videnskab,
Teknologi og Udvikling, 91p.
VTU (2009). Evaluering af FORSK2015, udarbejdet af Teknologisk Instituts Center for Analyse og Evaluering
for Ministeriet for Videnskab, Teknologi og Udvikling, 87p.
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Orienting International Science Cooperation to
Meet Global ‘Grand Challenges’
Paul Cutler,a Michael Keenan,b* John Marks,c Richard
Meyland and Carthage Smithd
a
National Science Foundation; b University of Manchester; c NCB Naturalis;
d
International Council for Science
* Corresponding author: [email protected]
Keywords: Research foresight, international science cooperation, scenarios.
Introduction
Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society’s response to emergent global
‘grand challenges’ such as resource scarcity and global environmental change. Science itself will
also be a source of new challenges and opportunities through its contribution to technological
change in areas such as the transition to a sustainable society, health and lifestyles, agri-food
or the development of new defence tools. The agenda-setting, coordination and conduct of
science, and the ways in which scientific knowledge is diffused and used, are therefore critical
issues. Increasingly, such issues need to be framed at the global level, reflecting both the
international nature of science itself and the scale of the challenges it seeks to address. Longerterm perspectives must also be incorporated to reflect the time horizons of key global challenges
and the uncertainties involved in future global governance regimes. Foresight offers a means
to explore these international, long-term dimensions of science and the internal and external
factors that drive its evolution.
The International Council for Science (ICSU), which promotes international science for the
benefit of society, is applying foresight as a central component of its strategic planning. Founded
in 1931, ICSU has a global multi-disciplinary membership composed of professional scientific
societies and national academies of science. It leads the international science community in
planning and implementing new trans-national and interdisciplinary science programmes, and
communicates science to global policy-makers.
Methodology
ICSU’s ongoing foresight exercise seeks to explore how two decades from now international
collaboration in science might foster progress in science and benefit society, as well as to identify
the key drivers influencing science in the next twenty years. It does not address the mapping of
Theme 1c: Innovation And Collaboration
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future research priorities, since many organizations, national and international, are doing this
already. A scenario approach is being used to define four world views differing in economic,
social, political, and environmental context and with different positions and roles of science.
These worlds lead to different challenges and consequences for international collaboration in
science.
Using this, ICSU as an organization wishes to test its role and mission and to guide its long-term
strategic choices. The process engages ICSU’s global network of members, bodies, partners,
and stakeholders through consultations designed to build mutual understanding of ICSU’s
current role and to solicit viewpoints and, ultimately, buy-in on the organization’s future direction.
The collection and analysis of potential key drivers and creation of exploratory scenarios is
designed also to help ICSU Members and other interested parties develop their own strategic
thinking.
This paper describes ICSU’s foresight process and highlights the challenges associated with
conducting such exercises in international arenas. The paper reports on the results of the
exercise, especially the key drivers of change and the resultant exploratory scenarios. These
scenarios provide important insights on a variety of organizational options for international
science and the roles science (which includes the social and human sciences) could play in
addressing future global grand challenges.
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Fraunhofer Future Markets: From Global
Challenges to Dedicated, Technological,
Collaborative Research Projects
Alexander Bunkowski*a, Lothar Behlau*, Kerstin Cuhls**
*Fraunhofer headquarters, Hansastraße 27 C, 80686 München, Germany
**Fraunhofer Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Breslauer Straße 48, 76139 Karlsruhe
a. Corresponding author: [email protected]
Keywords: Fraunhofer Future Markets, Global Challenges, FTA in contract research, distributed
contract research organisation.
Introduction
The mission of Fraunhofer as Europe’s largest contract research organisation is to conduct innovationoriented research for the benefit of private and public enterprises as well as society in general. As
a decentralised organisation, Fraunhofer’s strategic R&D-portfolio planning takes predominantly
place at the level of its 60 institutes. They plan their core competencies and business segments
quite self-determined based on market demands and their position in the scientific community. At a
corporate level, Fraunhofer complements these strategic planning activities with a process to identify
and strategically develop research themes across institutes (Fraunhofer Future Topics). Fraunhofer
performs this process iteratively every three years (see also Klingner et al. 2008).
Fraunhofer’s R&D fields are traditionally technology-driven and based on technological
competencies. To foster needs-oriented thinking within the organisation, Fraunhofer adapted
its corporate Future Topics process. In 2010 Fraunhofer initiated a Program called Future
Markets, in which grand societal challenges serve as a basis for identifying research themes
across Fraunhofer institutes. After the identification of the strategic themes the program aims
to fill every theme with the most promising interdisciplinary research project within Fraunhofer.
Distributed competencies within the Fraunhofer Institutes will be focused towards the themes
and aligned synergistically. This action-oriented foresight process will identify and promote
promising technologies to solve urging societal challenges and open up new markets for
Fraunhofer R&D-services.
Methodology
In 2010, the starting point of the process is a set of global challenges as defined in the UN Millennium
Project (Glenn et al. 2009). Fraunhofer analysed, re-structured and selected the challenges
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according to potential Fraunhofer contributions and market potential. Subsequently, five challenges
were formulated to serve as a frame for the new Fraunhofer Future Markets program:
•
Energy: Low-loss generation, distribution, and utilization of electrical energy
•
Healthcare - Affordable Health
•
Environment - Life cycle production
•
Mobility - Reliable, low-emission mobility in urban areas
•
Security - Detection and handling of disasters
Within the program, the institutes are called upon to form consortia and develop interdisciplinary
research projects to tackle these challenges. As an incentive to participate in the competitive call,
the most convincing projects are internally funded with a relatively large budget in the Fraunhofer
context. Collaboration within the Fraunhofer innovation system and an interdisciplinary problemsolving approach are fostered since project consortia have to consist of at least 4 institutes,
preferably with diverging technological competences. The evaluation criteria for the project
proposals have a strong emphasis on the anticipated impact on the challenge rather than the
scientific depth of the technological approach.
More than 130 research teams within Fraunhofer participated in the call. They contributed to 25
interdisciplinary project ideas. 20 of them led to full project proposals. In a first evaluation round
a jury consisting of Fraunhofer-external and -internal experts chose five of the projects to be
funded. The research projects start in April 2011 with a duration of three years.
Conclusions
Using global societal challenges as a starting point Fraunhofer initiated a program to establish
new markets for its R&D-services. We identified three key lessons for Fraunhofer
•
Combining top-down elements (defining suitable challenges at the corporate level)
and bottom-up elements (proposing project ideas at the institute level) is a well suited
action-oriented FTA approach for the multi-stakeholder environment of Fraunhofer.
•
The program started a learning process within the organisation. However, needs-oriented
thinking requires a real mindset change of the technology-driven Fraunhofer scientists.
•
Quantifying the anticipated benefit of the research project with respect to the societal
challenge is the toughest part. The impact analysis needs to be designed carefully.
External experts with market-knowledge are a critical success factor to evaluate the
impacts of the projects.
References
Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu - 2009 State of the Future; The Millennium
Project
Raoul Klingner, Lothar Behlau, Meike Spengel, Andrea Vidal - Fraunhofer Future Topics - FTA as part of the
strategic planning of a distributed contract research organisation, Third international Seville Conference on
FTA
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Exploring the Use of Futures Research in
Innovation Systems
Patrick van der Duin* Tobias Heger** and Maximilian
Schlesinger**
* Delf University of Technology - Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX, the Netherlands, [email protected]
** EICT GmbH, Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, D-10587 Berlin, Germany, [email protected]; maximilian.
[email protected]
Keywords: Innovation
management.
systems,
innovation,
futures
research,
cases,
ICT,
water
Introduction
There is a shift towards an ‘open’ approach in both futures research (Daheim and Uerz, 2008)
and innovation management (Chesbrough, 2003) in which organisations increasingly share,
exchange, and develop knowledge with the outside world. This approach differs significantly
from the ‘closed’ approach with far-reaching consequences for organisations that attempt to
be innovative and forward looking. For instance, intellectual property should not be kept inhouse but actively be exchanged as no single company possesses all the knowledge required
for developing an innovation (Chesbrough, 2003). Also, the future is increasingly considered
a source for ‘action and innovation’ (Daheim and Uerz, 2008, p.330) instead of a source of
uncertainty and risk.
The relationship between innovation and futures research has been studied often (e.g., Van
der Duin, 2006; Rohrbeck and Gemünden, 2009; Von der Gracht et al., 2010). However, these
studies focus on the relationship within a company. What the relationship is between ‘open
futures research’ and ‘open innovation’ has not been the topic of many studies yet.
In this paper we want to contribute to research on this topic by exploring what the impact is of
‘open innovation’ on the execution of futures research. More specifically, we investigate the use
of futures research (i.e., its organization, processes, and methods) in innovation systems (IS) in
three case studies by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model (Berkhout et al., 2006).
Methodology
The Cyclic Innovation Model emphasizes strong and balanced linkages between the image
of the future (visualizing the future of the IS), the innovation processmodel (used to guide the
execution of the innovation processes of the IS), and the transition path (illustrating to what
extent the visualized future is realized). ‘Open leadership’, at the center of the framework, is
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responsible for facilitating the linkages between these three elements and providing linkages
with other ISs. We will use this model to describe and analyze different cases on the linkage
between futures research and innovation systems.
Results
Case 1: EIT ICT Labs
The European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) was founded by the European
Commission (EC) to overcome the ‘European innovation paradox’. The EIT ICT Labs aims
to foster innovation in ICT, provide an innovation framework consisting of instruments
integrating the “knowledge triangle” of education, research, and innovation. 23 core partners
and approximately 60 associated partners (innovation system) aim to establish an innovation
framework fostering entrepreneurship and innovation in established companies from idea
generation to commercialization in a collaborative fashion (process model, transition path). Three
guiding principles for the built-up of the EIT ICT Labs are open innovation, future orientation
(futures research), and strong and visionary leadership (leadership).
Case 2: Innovation at Rijkswaterstaat
Deltas have to cope with increasing pressure on land use and the consequences of rising sealevels. Usual methods and solutions are no longer satisfactory for subsequent challenges and
ambitions of policy makers. Consequently, truly innovative approaches and technologies have
to be developed and implemented. Dutch governmental organization Rijkswaterstaat and water
management research and consultancy company Deltares have attempted this in the water
innovation programme WINN.
Conclusions
Case 1: EIT ICT Labs
In contrast to most other publicly funded research instruments of the EC, the EIT ICT Labs are
organized business-style, i.e. it has a clear vision and mission (vision), a general assembly
consisting of core and associate partners, an executive steering board and a chief executive
officer who is head of a 12-headed management team and responsible for the application of the
vision via strategy down to the day-to-day operations. Moreover, the EIT ICT Labs are organized
as a web of five nodes (for the time being) with so-called co-location centres (CLCs), places to
increase collaboration and effectiveness by physical proximity.
Case 2: Innovation at Rijkswaterstaat
An analysis of this innovation programme shows that setting up innovation teams consisting
of members of both organisations is working rather well because of complimentary
competences, that cooperating with other commercial organisations is difficult because of
different opinions on confidentiality, and that innovation processes should not be mixed
up with regular projects. Furthermore, based on the type of innovation to be developed
(from incremental to radical) radical) different elements of the innovation system and the
accompanying vision of the future should be emphasized. If the innovation ambition is
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radical, more room should there be given to formalized and top down visions of the future
and more ‘open’ should the innovation system be.
References
Berkhout, A.J., L. Hartmann, P.A. van der Duin & J.R. Ortt (2006). Innovating the innovation process.
International Journal of Technology Management, Vol.34, Issue 3/4, pp.390-404
Chesbrough, H. (2003). Open innovation. Boston: Harvard Business School Press
Daheim, C. and G. Uerz (2008). Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight.
Technology Analysis & strategic Management, Vol.20, No.3, May 2008, pp.321-336
Duin, P.A. van der (2006). Qualitative futures research for innovation. Delft: Eburon
Gracht, H.A. von der, C.R. Vennemann and Inge-Lena Darkow (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation
management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development. Futures, Vol.42, pp.380-393
Rohrbeck, R. And H.G. Gemünden (2009). Making your R&D future proof: The roles of corporate foresight
in innovation management. PICMET 2009 Proceedings, August 2-6 Portland, U.S.A., pp.835- 842
43
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Nanotechnology Research In India: Challenges and
Futures Analysis
Amit Kumara , Pranav N. Desaib
a
Centre for Studies in Science Policy, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi , 110067, India,
E-mail.: [email protected]
b
Centre for Studies in Science Policy, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India,
E-mail.: [email protected]
Keywords: Nanotechnology, Innovation, Foresight, Forecasting, Technology Futures Analysis,
Technology Roadmapping, Cluster Approach.
Introduction
The present study has been conducted at the backdrop of a time which is witnessing an ushering
of an era, which is hailed as promising and a panacea for many problems of a present day society.
Given such an illustrated introduction of nanotechnology by various sources, the interest and
motivation to carry out a research work on its matter was quite obvious. For a better understanding
of the rationale behind the present study, it is important to know what nanotechnology is, why is
it different from previous technologies, its disruptive nature, its benefits and applications, its role
in developing countries like India (or transforming country, a term recently used by World Bank,
for India), and then why it is imperative to focus on R&D aspects from a altogether different
perspective now. As far as India is concerned, the Government of India through its Department
of Science and Technology (DST) is playing a major role in nanotechnology research in the
country. It’s the nodal agency for sanctioning nanotechnology projects and allotting funds. There
are hundreds of such projects being undertaken in various universities, research centres and
through public-private partnership, all over the country. This paper tries to apply technology
foresight approach in to the nanotechnology R&D and come up with some valuable outcomes
for policy and decision makers. Nanotech and Global Challenges
Methodology
The study is based on both quantitative as well as qualitative data. For primary source of
data, field survey of some universities, research centres and industries were undertaken.
The selected scientists/professors/experts working in nanotechnology research projects were
interviewed and their insights were drawn into this study. For secondary source of information
regarding nanotechnology and its research, many reports, journals, articles, books and Internet
were consulted. In the case of applicative part of the research work, an attempt is made to use
a foresight methodology i.e. Technology Futures Analysis for nanotechnology research. This
Theme 1d: Nanotech And Global Challenges
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methodology is the latest form in the evolution of future studies, claimed to be much better and
comprehensive than the various forecasting or foresight techniques. As part of its application in
the present study, a combined Technology Roadmapping and Cluster Approach are used.
At policy-making front, Technology Futures Analysis(TFA) makes it possible to see which
components of the cluster should be added, and in which time frame. Policy makers may
accordingly seek to establish new institutes. It also helps them in preparing a cluster for the
future by adding institutes and other components. TFA as a foresight methodology will help in
channelizing the available expertise and funds in a more better way to accomplish maximum
benefits.For research organizations it is important tom learn where research is needed and
where it is not. The roadmap informs them what the companies already know, where companies
experience problems and where these companies can provide an answer.It can also help
them raise interest and funds. This makes the basic research more applied, without losing
the longer-term benefits of fundamental research.At company level, the roadmapping process
helps in identifying with which companies one should cooperate and what the goals could be.
Furthermore, the roadmap can help to distribute the efforts of companies. Without the roadmap,
it is possible that all the players aim for the same market, although there are more markets
available.
Conclusions
The significance of the present study is that it made an attempt to analyze a sector which is
emerging and has also an element of disruptiveness. The idea which is generated is that when
it is imperative to venture into an area which has high uncertainty quotient and thus is very
cost-intensive, resource-intensive and time-intensive, it is always beneficial if there is a kind of
foresight study being done in advance. This is precisely, this research work tries to explore for
nanotechnology research in India. It was seen that with TFA the R&D efforts could be better
channelized and a ‘synergetic-effect’ could be generated.
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NBIC, GRAIN, BANG, and TechFARM™: Advanced
Sciences Convergence for Surveillance of Emerging
Science & Technology Trends
Ashok Vaseashta
Institute for Advanced Sciences Convergence
NUARI, 13873 Park Centre Rd. Suite 500, Herndon, VA 20171 USA
Email: prof.vaseashta {at} nanoknowledge.info
Keywords: TechFARM, GRAIN, BANG, ADAMS, NESTS, nanotechnology.
Introduction
Strategic decision-making requires a knowledge base, analytical capability, foresight, riskassessment, and optimization. The process of Advanced Sciences Convergence is to understand
how advances in different disciplines, and focusing on discrete problems and applications,
can coalesce to solve a seemingly intractable problem. Recent advances in both science
and technology have provided the means to study, understand, control, and even manipulate
transitional characteristics between isolated atoms and molecules, and bulk materials.
Various “designer” materials capable of producing devices and systems with remarkable and
desired properties have recently been fabricated. Such innovations have occurred in multidisciplinary environments. Such advances in conjunction with advances in biotechnology,
information technology, cognitive sciences, genetics, and artificial intelligence are employed to
develop futures-oriented analytical methodologies by further including heuristics, data-mining,
scientometrics, modelling and simulation, and scenario development to provide systematic
recognition and evaluation of new or existing scientific and technologic (S&T) solutions and their
potential for integrated, novel and/or unconventional approaches to 21st century challenges.
Methodology
The synergy arising from the convergence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information
processing and cognitive sciences (NBIC) offers great potential for transformational and
revolutionary opportunities with many technological applications. To explore this realm, a
methodology termed “Technology Foresight, Assessment, and Road-Mapping” (TechFARM)
– a multi dimensional futures-oriented modality that identifies and manages emerging and/or
disruptive science and technology trends is articulated. In literature similar initiatives termed as
GRAIN and BANG appear with similarity to NBIC – however TechFARM is comprehensive and
an exhaustive method and will be described in detail in conjunction with the latest tools such
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as, automated data analysis, mining and surveillance (ADAMS) and new and emerging science
and technology surveillance (NESTS) are likely to provide a unique framework of the future
capabilities that are scientifically feasible, recognized and cross-validated.
The methodology and results presented here will immense policy implications in defense,
safety, and security. The basic premise of the methodology is to provide a vision into future by
scientific and cross-validated models. Such vision will allow policy makers to take action which
are strategic, timely, and less expensive than consequence management,
Conclusions
Through “framework by design”, an ASC strategy is posited and modelled that will focus
science convergences methodologies to describe how far-reaching, visionary- yet achievable
albeit undefined outcomes may be achieved and analyze high-yield and high-risk research into
futuristic devices and systems to solve great challenges in environment, defense, and security.
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Scouting the Socio-Technical Landscape for
Potential Nanotechnology Triggered Agrifood
Sectoral Transformations
Douglas K. R. Robinson
teQnode, 75005 Paris, France
[email protected]
Keywords: agrifood, nanotechnology, co-evolution, transformations, socio-technical.
Introduction
New and emerging science and technologies (NESTs), such as proteomics, bioelectronics or
nanotechnologies, may impact many sectors with a variety of industrial structures. For those
wishing to enable beneficial technology applications stemming from potentially breakthrough
areas of science and technology, such as nanotechnology, this complexity increases as we shift
from retro- to prospective analysis of potential paths to innovation and the journeys that will be
taken from idea to technical application well embedded in society.
In the field of nanotechnology these challenges are further compounded due to the early stage
of nano developments, where promises proliferate around the benefits and risks that may
become reality as nanotechnology matures. It is uncertain what sort of sectors will be impacted
(or created) by nanotechnology innovations and how the regulatory, economic and societal
landscapes will co-evolve.
Therefore, those wishing to develop strategies for managing nanotechnology emergence not
only face the general challenge of prospecting possible pathways for innovation they also are
challenged to prospect the changing environments and framing conditions that will determine
whether an innovation will move from a hopeful proof-of-principle to a product well embedded
in our society.
One of today’s key grand challenges is the transformation of the agrifood system into a
sustainable food production and distribution system, with less waste (from production and
packaging) and one that provides the right nutrients in the right balance. Many national
policies are looking towards future technology options in providing biodegradable packaging,
antimicrobial materials to prolong shelf-life, fortification of foods with minerals and vitamins
etc.
Nanotechnology, and particularly nanobiotechnology, is garnering great interest from funding
agencies, however anticipation is abound on the potential risks to health and the environment,
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as well as opportunity costs for investing in technological solutions rather than others (such as
lifestyle solutions).
For those seeking to augment agrifood sectoral transformations by directing technology investments,
future-oriented analyses need to be tailored, not only to project technology trajectories, but to
speculate (in a controlled way) how the socio-technical landscape (the various environments and
framing conditions that will shape future innovation journeys) will evolve.
Nanotechnology is beginning to enter markets in places such as pesticides, food packaging,
fortified and novel foods, quality control in food processing industry and the livestock industry. As
nanobiotechnology enters this diverse array of sectors, the emerging governance arrangements
of nanotechnology meet incumbent (and still developing) governance regimes, consumer
positions and actor arrangements.
The approach, built on the sociology of expectations, (co) evolutionary theories of technical
change and techno-economic networks – captures the entanglements of emerging innovation
chains in nanotechnology and how they are shaping (and being shaped by) the incumbent
socio-technical landscape of the agrifood sector. The paper argues that capturing these
entanglements through multiple methods provides intelligence that can be fed into scenario
approaches and provide the backdrop to open-ended forms of roadmapping.
Methodology
The paper outlines a means of capturing such data in the form of socio-technical mapping,
as strategic intelligence on the landscape in which technological/innovation trajectories are
projected. It does so by combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. It presents material
gathered qualitatively through document analysis, more than 50 expert surveys, more than 30
interviews and three multi-stakeholder workshops.
The paper presents insights into emerging nanotechnology supply chains and the potential
co-evolution of nano supply chains, and the agrifood sector. Moreover, the paper presents
the beginnings of a more robust approach which those seeking to make policy decisions on
technology and agrifood systems. Arguably the approach can be applied elsewhere and to
other global challenges.
Conclusions
The coupling of socio-technical landscapes and emerging technological innovations is an
essential element of innovation governance and policy. The potential co-evolutions are important
to explore, placing high requirements on the FTA practitioner. This paper presents a first round
approach based on deep case research and on a real societal challenge. The approach will be
further developed to incorporate quantitative analyses.
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Archetypal Planning Situations: an Approach for
Selecting FTA Tools for Global Challenges
E. Anders Eriksson and Karl-Henrik Dreborg
FOI Defence Analysis, SE-16490 Stockholm, Sweden
Email: [email protected]
Keywords: Public sector planning, FTA tools scenario planning, Adaptive Foresight, backcasting,
transactional environment, contextual environment, global challenges.
Introduction
In the context of societal long range planning several methodological approaches are applied,
e.g. various kinds of forecasting, external explorative scenarios (like the Shell approach) and
backcasting. According to Börjeson et al. (2006), the choice between these categories depends
on what question about the future you are interested in: What is likely to happen? What can
happen? How can a specific target be reached? However, this and other typologies (Bradfield et
al. 2005, van Notten et al. 2003) have little to say about the significance of the planning situation
that the prospective FTA tool user is facing. Based on our experience of future-oriented work, in
this paper we attempt to remedy this situation by developing a rational framework for this type
of choice.
Methodology
The starting point for this contribution is the authors’ personal experience of future-oriented
work, starting with national security in the 1970’s and 80’s respectively, and then expanding into
areas like environment, energy, transport, societal security, as well as research and innovation.
This work has been summarised and/or contextualised in publications like Börjeson et al. (2006),
Dreborg (1996) and (2004), and Eriksson (2004). Most recently Eriksson and Weber (2008)
coined the title Adaptive Foresight for an approach that captures much of our experience. At a
craft level, the tradition we feel the greatest affinity with is the Shell school, e.g. van der Heijden
(1996). This in spite of the fact that all our work has been based in the public sector, albeit
often – and increasingly – with private sector participation. Another important strand for us is
backcasting, particularly in the face of major environmental challenges (e.g., Dreborg, 1996).
Arguably the present paper is based on critical self-assessment, on re-analysing critical
comments and situations where we found it difficult to communicate with participants in FTA
exercises and the like. The framework we propose consists of three main attributes pertaining
to the planning entity and the future-oriented problems it is facing. These are (presented with
illustrative examples):
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 Mission: A key aspect here is that public sector organisations, e.g. providers of
public security, typically are subject to an obligation to serve under all circumstances,
whereas a ‘normal’ private business is free to choose which demands to cater to, or
eventually to terminate its business altogether.
 Production technology: The key attribute here is flexibility vs. rigidity, where extreme
flexibility trivially renders future-oriented work irrelevant, whereas different sources of
rigidity require different investment strategies.
 The planning entity in its environment: Here we study the relative importance in
influence terms (for the problem in focus) between the entity itself and its transactional
and contextual environment, as well as key qualities of these domains.
Conclusions: Results and policy impact/implications
We found this framework helpful in understanding the usefulness of alternative FTA tools, both
by economically summarising conclusions already well-known to us and by surfacing new
insights.
With regard to Global Challenges we are reassured of the usefulness of Adaptive Foresight,
but also acknowledge the need for methodological development to better accommodate natural
science knowledge on phenomena like threshold and tipping-point effects. Such knowledge is
of key importance in particular for climate change policies, and the irreversible nature of the
phenomena render them both epistemologically problematic and challenging to the wait-andsee element of Adaptive Foresight.
References
Börjeson, L et al. 2006. ”Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user’s guide.” Futures 2006:38(7): 72339.
Bradfield, R. et al. 2005. “The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning.”
Futures, 37 (2005), 795-812.
Dreborg, K.H. 1996. “Essence of backcasting.” Futures 28:813-828.
Dreborg, K.H.. 2004. “Scenarios and Structural Uncertainty: Explorations in the Field of Sustainable Transport.”
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, 2004.
Eriksson, E.A. & K.M. Weber. 2008. “Adaptive Foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy
strategies.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 75 (2008) 462-482.
Eriksson, E.A. 2004. “Scenario-Based Methodologies for Strategy Development and Management of Change.”
In Systems Approaches and Their Applications: Examples from Sweden, edited by M.O. Olsson & G.
Sjöstedt. Dordrecht: Kluwer.
van der Heijden, Kees. 1996. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
van Notten, P.W.F. et al 2003. “An updated scenario typology.” Futures 35 (5), 2003.
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Law and the Future. The Role of Future-Oriented
Technology Analysis (FTA) in Law: The Case of
Legal Research, Legislative Drafting and Legal
Enforcement
Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andreade
European Commission, JRC-IPTS [email protected]
Keywords: Law, Future-Oriented Analysis (FTA), Foresight, Technology, Legal research,
Legislative drafting, Law enforcement, Hyper-regulation.
Introduction
Future and Law are two words that are hardly found in the same phrase. Law tends to adapt
to the pace of time through a gradual process, refraining from any attempt to anticipate its
forthcoming developments. As such, law has a deeply embedded reactive nature. The typical
juridical mind works backwards, looking at the past in order to address the present, while
forgetting the future. Due to such mindset, lawyers tend to construct a legal world characterized
by order and stability, and – thus – resistant to change and transformation. Pursuant to this logic,
the legal mind works according to the values and parameters of legal security and certainty,
neglecting the use of forecasting techniques and risk assessment procedures. As a result,
legal research supporting policy decision-making tends to present a rather restrictive scope,
looking solely to the immediate past in order to find the factual evidence justifying its policy
recommendations. As a consequence, recent legislative drafted instruments are soon outdated
and, as a result, legal enforcement is hardly ever effective.
Methodology
This paper argues that the reactive nature of law as we know it can no longer account for the
technological acceleration that is shaping the globalized society of the 21st century. Thereby, the
article attempts to sketch a new methodological approach to law, reflecting upon the application
of future-oriented analysis (FTA) – as a common umbrella for the foresight, forecasting and
technology assessment research techniques – to three specific cases: legal research, legislative
drafting and law enforcement.
Regarding the latter, the paper analyses the phenomenon of “predictive policing” used in the
US. Such term is employed to define the work of computer scientists in exploring data models
that predict and map crime. Such activity enables law enforcers to anticipate and prevent
criminal activity, interpreting patterns of data to wisely deploy resources. Concerning legislative
drafting, the hypothetical application of legal requirements of future impact assessment
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attached to legislative making is presented as an example of a possible FTA activity applied to
the legislative drafting process. Accordingly, legislators would need to explain both the future
need and the future consequences that a particular piece of legislation would address. Such
requirement would thus presuppose the exercise of FTA activities such as technology foresight
and assessment. Regarding the case of legal research, the paper analyses the advantages of
using ‘roadmapping’ and ‘scenario-construction’ as instruments supporting the policy-making
process. In this particular, the article examines the ongoing “Law of the Future project” (www.
lawofthefuture.org) and its envisaged outcome of producing a “Law Scenarios 2010” document.
Still within the field of legal research, but more focussed on the technological front (exploitation
of information resources and data mining), the paper also analyses the European project:
“FuturICT Knowledge Accelerator” (www.futurict.eu). Aimed at advancing our understanding
of human and environmental systems, the project proposes to use real time data (financial
transactions, health records, logistics data, carbon dioxide emissions, or knowledge databases
such as Wikipedia) in order to construct a model of society capable of simulating what the
future holds for us. The paper examines this particular case-study as another example of a FTA
technique that can be applied to law.
The applications of FTA techniques are presented as potential and viable solutions to one of the
major problems affecting contemporary legal systems: the legal hyper-regulation imposed upon
society, compounded by the excessive promulgation of legislation. Rather than today’s primarily
`reactive’ work, according to which law responds to observed economic trends and alreadyoccurred societal events, the paper demonstrates that law will need to focus on proactive,
future-oriented analysis and techniques.
Conclusions
The paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing the uncertainty and addressing
the challenges that law needs to cope with in terms of legal research, legislative drafting and
law enforcement. In offering a series of specific cases and examples applied to each of these
three areas (as a methodology approach), the article argues that the adoption of FTA by law will
contribute to diminishing the excessive legislative production permeating society and to a more
effective and coherent support to EU policy-making.
References
Cagnin, C. (et al). «Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy.»
Berlin: Springer, 2008
www.lawofthefuture.org
www.futurict.eu
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Exploring, Imagining And Creating Future Tv
Experiences For/By Users: A Case Study on
Innovation Foresight
Katrien De Moor*, Ozcan Saritas**, Dimitri Schuurman*,
Laurence Claeys*, Lieven De Marez*
* MICT-IBBT, Department of Communication Sciences, Ghent University, Korte Meer 7-9-11, 9000
Ghent, Belgium. [email protected], [email protected]; Laurence.Claeys@
Ugent.be, [email protected]
** PREST/MIoIR, Manchester Inst. of Innovation Research, University of Manchester, Booth Street
West, Manchester, M15 6PB, UK. [email protected]
Keywords: Innovation Foresight, TV experiences, stakeholder interaction, participation,
innovation development.
Introduction
The literature on innovation and technology foresight increasingly emphasises the interaction
between various stakeholders in innovation processes and the need for (systemic) policy
instruments to facilitate such interaction (see e.g. Smits & Kuhlmann, 2004). Our focus is
on the involvement of current and prospective technology users as key stakeholders, whose
needs, expectations and experiences should be systematically taken into account (Haddon et
al., 2005). In this paper, we elaborate on the concept of Innovation Foresight (IF) (De Moor
& Saritas, 2009) as an interactive, participatory and forward-looking way of ‘social shaping of
technology’. IF introduces a systemic and inclusive vision development process with long-term
perspective based on 1) information to understand the complex interactions between products,
services, users and other stakeholders in multiple contexts, 2) imagination in a holistic innovation
ecosystem by integrating foresight, creativity and design, 3) intelligence through scanning of
novel ideas, unexpected issues, trends, etc. and 4) interaction with current/prospective users
continuously beginning from the earliest phases of innovation development (Saritas, 2010).
Illustrating the idea and principles of IF, the paper zooms in on two empirical studies in which
current and future users were closely involved in the exploration, imagination and creation of
(future) TV experiences.
Methodology
Study 1 investigated the gap between adoption and use diffusion for digital TV (DTV) in Flanders
and aimed to identify users’ specific (future) needs concerning digital TV though an online survey
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(N= 11.802 digital TV users). In this paper, we focus on the identification of these unfulfilled
needs and possible lead user ideas. These ideas were evaluated in terms of market potential,
innovativeness and current status by an expert group of 15 Flemish experts on DTV.
Study 2, in which current and prospective users were actively involved, explicitly focused on
‘Future TV experiences’. This study was set up in collaboration with the ‘Philips Consumer
Lifestyle’ group (Philips Bruges) and focused on the questions: ‘What do the possible,
probable and/or preferable ‘TV experiences of the future’ – combining Internet and TV - look
like according to different user types (time horizon: 2030)? A multi-method approach was used
to stimulate users’ creative and imaginative potential in the IF process. This study consisted
of 3 consecutive phases in which several stakeholders were involved. In the environmental
scanning phase (phase 1), current TV watching patterns, user profiles, trends were explored by
scanning literature and trend reports, combined with an expert consultation round (N=10) and
a number of user interviews. Drawing on insights yielded through this environmental scanning
exercise, so-called positive and negative ‘assumption personas’ were developed in phase 2.
Additionally, (lead) users matching the distinct persona profiles were recruited (N=11) for further
qualitative exploration. In the third and last research phase, these 11 respondents participated
in creative home sessions using the cultural probing technique. Different tools were used to
collect information and experiences for projecting the personas in the future as a way to explore,
imagine and create ‘future TV experience’-scenarios.
In Study 1, 3563 from the 11802 respondents reported unfulfilled needs or ideas related to
DTV. The majority of ideas dealt with rather common applications and features. Through further
analysis and clustering, we identified 13 unique ideas representing important unfulfilled needs,
which were reviewed by the expert panel. High potential ideas (however already in relatively
advanced stage of development) were e.g., the ‘remote digicorder’, ‘visual EPG’ and ‘exchange
of user-generated content through DTV’.
Main lessons learned from Study 2 are that – through a combination of methods and in an
inclusive IF process involving several stakeholders – daily practices as well future aspirations
and opportunities can be better understood, detected and used as an input for (further)
development. Not surprisingly, the more advanced TV users, i.e., the ‘positive personas’ were
found to be relatively enthusiastic and open about future TV experiences inducing innovative
sensual experiences (e.g., scent TV, holograms, and connected multiple screens). Both studies
represent examples of IF activities in which the idea of social shaping of technology by and for
(future) users is put into practice.
Conclusions
In this paper it is argued that through information, imagination, intelligence and continuous
interaction, IF activities with different types of (prospective) users and stakeholders can be
used as a strategic and anticipatory tool. Such activities can contribute to a better articulation
and inclusion of future users’ and societal needs, successful detection and anticipation of
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unexpected forms of use, identification of future innovation opportunities, setting of strategic
research priorities, prevention of lock-in, etc.
References
Smits, R. and Kuhlmann, S. (2004), “The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy”, International
Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (IJFIP), Vol. 1 No. 1-2, pp. 4-32.
Haddon, L., Mante, E., Sapio, B., Kommonen, K.-H., Fortunati, L., & Kant, A. (Eds.) (2005), Everyday
Innovators: Researching the role of users in shaping ICT’s, Springer, Dordrecht.
De Moor, K. and Saritas, O. (2009), “Innovation Foresight for Living Labs”, paper presented at YIRCoF 2009
Yeditepe International Research Conference on Foresight, 4-6 September, Istanbul, Turkey.
Saritas, O. (2010). Innovation Foresight and Foresightful Innovation in Europe and beyond. Presentation
given at Vienna University of Technology, 27 September 2010.
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Future of Strategic Foresight
Michael Jackson
The Habit, Blackladies, Kiddemore Green Road
Staffordshire, England ST19 9BQ
Keywords: Strategy, Foresight, Horizon Scanning, Futures, Planning, Risk, Innovation,
Technology, Systems, Intelligence, Collaboration.
Introduction
This paper describes the systemic methods, process and approaches to foresight, innovation
and risk management being developed by many leading commercial organisations, not-forprofits and governments and around the world. It describes a now integrated and increasingly
shared technological approach to open source and third party intelligence gathering, trend
analysis, sense-making and path finding used by these organisations to shine a light on the
possible future of strategic foresight.
Methodology
The paper describes the current capabilities of the shared system, where organisational demand
for collaborative foresight, innovation and threat management is moving in the future and what
developments can be expected in the next five years.
The approach was developed in response to demands for an automated organisational
foresight process through a single collaborative system. Over the years’ many organisations
have shared their collaborative innovation, risk management and foresight process, needs and
desires to create this system with the author and his organisation. Significant contributions
to the development of the system have also been made by leading futurists, academics and
consultancies engaged in these activities. The extraction of best practice from journals, articles
and conference papers has also played a major part as have the ideas of users, intense trend
watching and fast development of best practice web technologies.
Strategic foresight practitioners are likely to see:
•
improvements in user profiling and filtering of Insights and Trends analysis. This will
allow the use of sophisticated narrative analysis tools to make sense of user data e.g.
by industry and personal interests
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•
greater innovation through formal ideation processes; innovation and risk
assessment systems are already converging with strategic foresight
•
the creation of global scouting networks and expert panels
•
integration with business and competitive intelligence and prediction market
systems
•
integration of foresight tools and methods (e.g. futures wheels, road mapping etc.)
•
a move to automated scan hit finding as capabilities improve but still with human
input
•
web-based modelling and simulation
•
the arrival of fast action/reaction/low cost/high value added intelligence systems
•
melding of strategic foresight into new delivery channels such as virtual worlds and
games
•
cross-over to more design led methods of presenting and working with the future
Conclusions
As early adopters learn to use the new tools and further develop existing capabilities it is
expected that a global strategic foresight brain will emerge within the next decade. The
requirements for such a global brain are myriad but the tools and knowledge are now there to
make this holy grail of foresight a real possibility
References
60
•
Technology Forecast
•
1998: Globalization ... 2008: Continuous change
•
Making complexity manageable
•
Bringing order to chaos
•
Foresight and Business Futures (Slideshare: registration required)
•
Outside in (Slideshare: registration required)
•
Organizational Effectiveness Simulator
•
Questions for the future
•
Future Technology (slideshare: registration required)
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Foresight in an Unpredictable World
Ilkka Tuomi
[email protected]
Keywords: unpredictability, disruptive innovations, grand societal opportunities, creative
evolution, foresight methodology, epistemology and ontology of futures studies.
Introduction
We know that foresight and planning exercises have generally missed important technical and
techno-economic developments, recent examples being, for example, the rapid expansion of
SMS messaging and social computing platforms on the Internet. Despite extensive planning
and foresight, policy and technology experts typically have been blind to many important social,
technical, economic, and environmental developments.
Future is unpredictable. We almost never get it, and almost always get it wrong. Although the
large variety of accumulated visions of the future often cover even the most eccentric alternatives,
rational argument and consensus rapidly converge foresight towards strange attractors that
rarely represent the hot-spots of actual futures.
The paper claims that unpredictability can be more radical and conceptually more important
than many foresight experts have expected. Deep unpredictability is a mirror image of creative
evolution and disruptive innovation, and cannot be effectively reduced by collecting more
information or facts. The essence of the Knowledge Society is in its high capacity to create new
knowledge and new meaning, and policymakers need to embrace unpredictability, instead of
trying to minimize it. To understand the impact of deep unpredictability, the paper explores the
basic ontological and epistemological concepts that underlie foresight and FTA.
The paper thus makes a conceptual and methodological contribution to FTA. In addition, it
applies the presented analysis in the current historical setting, arguing that foresight needs a
paradigm shift in the Knowledge Society. Foresight has been strongly associated with Industrial
Age models of impact, and foresight activities have relied on information that has been collected
using categorizations and measurement systems optimized for the Industrial Age models of
production. The claim is that this has been one of the reasons why foresight has systematically
missed important future developments. The epistemic models of most foresight and FTA
activities inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past. The creative
and truly novel aspects of the future thus remain beyond their reach.
The fundamental source of deep unpredictability is the creative nature of evolutionary and
innovative processes. Deep uncertainty is the key source of innovation, growth, and value
creation in the emerging knowledge society. To tap it we need to give up some basic instincts
that have driven planners, forecasters and strategy developers during the last century.
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Future has never been deterministic. Extending the neo-Schumpeterian analysis of technoeconomic paradigms, the paper, however, claims that in the last century the future was
deterministic enough to produce constructs of causality, time, subject, object, and value that
successfully reflected the requirements of the dominant model of production. The Industrial Age
and its mass production methods also produced determinism as their own condition of success
and viability, thus facilitating a particular mechanistic reification of these constructs.
The emerging new context for foresight can be best described using models of creative evolution.
These may be contrasted with the adaptive Darwinian models of evolution that have typically
been used in economics. Creative evolutionary models emphasize the creative aspect of living
systems. The underlying ontological model can be characterized as phenomenological. In such
models, evolution continuously generates new epistemological and ontological domains.
Creative models of evolution become particularly relevant for FTA when innovation is understood
as a dynamic process in socio-technical ecosystems. Creative models of evolution generate
ontological domains that are phenomenologically new. Such emergent domains cannot be
fully described using constructs that characterize previously existing domains. They therefore
represent discontinuous change and disruption that make conventional prediction impossible.
The challenge of phenomenological unpredictability can not be solved by collecting more
information, processing more data, or by developing more sophisticated models.
“Grand challenges” can only be articulated by extrapolating historically important categories and
data towards the future. The idea of “grand societal challenges” is therefore inherently backward
looking, and frames policy in a way that potentially misses truly novel opportunities of the future.
The articulation of “grand challenges” requires special care when policy is implemented using
transformative technologies, such as ICTs, which through their pervasive impact also change
the framing of problems. The present paper argues that foresight methodologies need to be
reconsidered to overcome this systemic blindness and to effectively support policy-making.
For example, the ageing of populations in the EU has frequently been understood as a challenge.
Ageing becomes a grand challenge mainly because we assume that Industrial Age production
and value creation models, work patterns, and public financing systems remain as they used to
be in the 20th century. There is little reason to believe that these assumptions will be valid under
the conditions of the Knowledge Society. For example, elderly people might well become main
contributors to socio-economic development in the future. Similarly, the challenge of global warming
is typically framed in a context where socio-economic development requires more production that
is visible in the current national accounts and GDP, as well as more energy consumption. Industrial
Age logic provides the foundation for this framing of the problem. This leaves open the key policy
question what we mean by growth and value creation in the emerging Knowledge Society.
Conclusions
When the intensity of innovation increases in the Knowledge Society, deep unpredictability
becomes a critical constraint for future-oriented analysis. Foresight professionals and policymakers need to understand the nature and the implications of deep unpredictability. This requires
that we reconsider the epistemic and ontological assumptions that underlie much of current
foresight and future-oriented analysis.
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Orienting Research and Innovation Policies
Towards Grand Societal Challenges: the Role of
FTA in Anticipating Disruptive Transformations
Martin Rhisiart
Abstract
Future-oriented Technology Analysis has been used to support Research and and Innovation
policy in a number of contexts around the world. A number of techniques have been used to
explore the possible future development and exploitation of technologies, such as Roadmapping
and Delphi. FTA has, over recent years, been challenged to address the increasingly complex
nature of research and innovation policy as a result of factors such as globalisation, converging
technologies and democratised and open innovation. Moreover, the shift of emphasis away
from single-focus technology exercises to multi-disciplinary, societal challenges presents new
questions and new opportunities for FTA. This paper analyses some recent developments
in how national research and innovation systems use FTA and other Foresight approaches to
construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and
opportunities. It draws on international examples of FTA used for research and innovation policy
agenda-setting, including recent research conducted by the author in Ireland and the UK. It
will relate the methodological approach taken in one such project in Ireland – in identifying
research implications of global drivers and trends, which combined analysis of global changes
with a participatory process involving national stakeholders. The exercise was designed to
assess the implications of global changes for research, particularly in addressing grand societal
challenges. This forms part of on-going research by the author into international use of FTA
to inform research and innovation policies that have been challenged increasingly to become
oriented to societal challenges or imperatives. The key questions and themes addressed
include the following. How is FTA being used by governments and organisation to anticipate and
shape transformations – particularly those that are relevant to the domain of macro, systemic
challenges? To what extent will FTA create a transformation of the enabling research and
innovation system? What are the strategies that FTA designers and practitioners might need
to adopt in broader governmental and organisational discourse and decision-making around
‘grand societal challenges’?
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Global Urban Sanitation System Hotspots: Mass
Markets For Disruptive Onsite Wastewater
Treatment Technologies?
An European perspective
Eckhard Störmer*, Bernhard Truffer, Christian Binz
Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Department Cirus, Innovation
Research in Utility Sectors. Ueberlandstr. 133, CH 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland. Corresponding
email: [email protected]
Keywords: technology roadmapping; disruptive technologies; innovation system analysis;
decentralized infrastructure systems; waste water.
Introduction
Cities in newly developing countries (NICs) are often facing a serious problem constellation
for the installation of the necessary water and sanitation infrastructure: in particular, very fast
growth of settlements, low water availability and massive lack of existing infrastructure. These
preconditions make the dominant technological system of large sewer networks with huge
central wastewater treatment plants less appropriate which is nearly ubiquitously established
in western industrialized countries. But new concepts of decentralized onsite water treatment
technologies (OST) could be a promising alternative.
OST represents a radical and systemic innovation for urban water management. Their
contribution to a future more sustainable sector structure depends on an interrelated set of
social and technological development processes addressing material components and their
system integration, corresponding industry and servicing structures as well as their embedding
into institutional contexts.
The OST project is a scoping project for inter- and transdisciplinary research on onsite treatment
systems in urban water management. This paper is presenting a technology roadmapping
exercise from water scientists together with representatives of water technology providers and
further experts to figure out the perspectives of the development of this disruptive sanitation
technology. It tries to answer the questions: 1) where are the potential markets where OST
has competitive advantages compared to the dominating design of central sewer systems, 2)
how should the OST products and their business concepts look like, 3) who are the actors with
the knowledge for the product development and implementation and 4) which research and
development steps and further activities are needed to bring the OST technology into a mass
market.
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Methodology
The OST project methodology is a mixed method approach following an advancement of the
Innovation System Analysis procedure (Markard et al 2009) and the Technology Roadmapping
approach (Phaal, Müller 2009). It starts with a global hotspot analysis of the regional spread
of problem conditions which can be interpreted as competitive advantages for radically new
infrastructures. In the second step a technological variation analysis with different configurations
of OST technologies is carried out to present different future perspectives of this technology.
In the third step a variety of industry partners and further experts who could contribute to the
development of disruptive OST systems are identified and interviewed on their perception of the
future dominant design for OST. At last, a selection of these industry actors was invited to a two
day roadmapping workshop to develop potential future dominant designs for OST, which could
be contributions to the sanitation infrastructure needs in NICs’ cities.
The technical results can be shortly described as (1) conventional on-site wastewater treatment,
(2) wastewater treatment with moderate water consumption and recycling for outdoor water
reuse, and (3) highly water efficient systems with extensive source separation. While the first
is close to technologies which are already at the market, the second and third one need heavy
further research and development. All of them require new operational modes to have the plants
under control and make them more reliable and robust. This can be a central operation of
decentralized plants with remote sensing control or variants of this concept. The business model
of the technology provider has to shift from the product producer to a service and operation
provider. To cover the international markets European firms have to develop concepts for
international presence e.g. with a partner network. The technology providers have to act as
educators for their partners and as their extended knowledge and service pool.
Conclusions
Introducing disruptive technologies is not a problem of static choice of technologies. It is a
dynamic process of learning of potential industry actors about valuable markets and chances for
new businesses. Up to now, only a limited number of niche specialists have pioneer expertise in
this field. Most firms see options for incremental improvements of the existing products and do
not take the chance to implement these solutions far beyond the European market.
Disruptive technology development like OST can not to start from scratch. In order to develop
these promising technologies into mature alternatives, a highly concerted action would be
needed, probably in the same order of magnitude that was necessary to build up the centralized
systems in the first place. Such a program will require a broad political discussion on future
challenges in urban water management on a global scale. It will involve engineers as well as
social scientists, industry representatives and policy makers. Such a program has to truly build
on interdisciplinary competencies as it has to simultaneously anticipate social, technical and
economic aspects of a systemic innovation process (Truffer et al forthcoming).
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References
Markard, J.; Stadelmann, M.; Truffer, B. Prospective analysis of technological innovation systems: Identifying
technological and organizational development options for biogas in Switzerland. Res. Policy 2009, 38 (4),
655–667.
Phaal, R.; Müller, G. An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy. Technol. Forecast.
Soc. Chang. 2009, 76 (1), 39–49
Truffer, B., Binz, C., Gebauer H., Störmer E., (forthcoming), Socio-technical trajectories for on-site technologies
in urban water management. In: T. Larsen, K. Udert and J. Lienert (eds.) Wastewater Management: Source
Separation and Decentralisation. IWA Publishing.
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Theme 2:
Building FTA capacities for Systemic and
Structural Transformations
Theme 2: Building FTA capacities for Systemic and Structural Transformations
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Theme 2
Building FTA Capacities for Systemic and
Structural Transformations
The increased incidence of disruptive events and scientific discovery in recent years is driving
governments and businesses to scale down FTA activities, shifting from individual large-scale
foresight programmes and projects, to invest in developing in-house competencies for coping
with sudden change. This capacity-building drive is primarily aimed at addressing specific
societal trends, concerns and needs as well as identifying the means to optimise on social
innovation and related opportunities. Apart from a renaissance of parliamentary technology
assessment, the development towards institutionalisation of foresight is reflected in the setting
up of horizon scanning centres and dedicated foresight units in firms and public administration.
The reasons for this shift from projects and programmes to institutionalised forms of FTA
are manifold. On the one hand, a tighter embedding of FTA in support of decision making is
needed in the light of a fast-changing, turbulent and complex environment. This is, rendering
the interpretation of contextual developments very difficult and challenging. On the other hand,
there are internal reasons why novel forms of future intelligence are needed, ranging from the
need to provide solutions in time to achieve coordinated and coherent decisions within and
across organisations. As a consequence, there is a growing need for the capacity to anticipate
change to be centrally embedded in policy and decision making, and to achieve this embedding
quickly and strategically.
While the trend towards institutionalisation of FTA may appear obvious, it is important to
understand the advantages and disadvantages of different organisational models along the
lines of which FTA can be set up. The implementation of individual FTA projects or programmes
of a limited duration and with a targeted objective can be seen as the alternative model to the
establishment of dedicated FTA units providing continuous input to their embedding or mother
organisations. Different combinations of elements from these ideal-type models are possible as
well, such as (international) FTA networks as informal but nevertheless stable settings allowing
to bundle or coordinate resources and competencies.
It is also important to highlight that these models are complementary in many respects.
Service providers as well as FTA institutions need to be able to draw on networks for many
purposes, and the boundaries between service provision and institutionalised forms of FTA are
blurring. The balance between these three forms of FTA activities (i.e. external FTA services,
institutionalisation of FTA, and FTA networks) in empirical terms requires further investigation,
in order to understand how effectively different combinations of activities work in their respective
decision making context. In the very end, the most suitable model of FTA will strongly depend
on the wider institutional and organisational environment in which FTA is embedded, be it in the
private or the public sector.
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Against this background, it is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised
FTA can form part of the solution for building capacity to handle disruptions. Many sorts of
combinations of elements from different organisational models are needed to enable learning,
experimentation and capability development appropriate for the wider decision making context
in which FTA is embedded. This conference theme is aimed at exploring the extent to which
FTA can provide enhanced support to decision making through different organisational models
for capacity building, generation and assessment of future developments, and corresponding
abilities to transform organisations, thus enabling them to anticipate and address identified
challenges and emerging weak signals. Therefore, papers and posters under this theme are
expected to address, but not be limited to, the following areas of work:
•
Organisational models for building anticipatory capacity to manage disruptive and
transformative change as a support to decision making including experiences with
change management;
•
The role of supporting 'infrastructures' for conducting FTA within and across private
organisations;
•
Embedding of different forms of FTA in the public sector and implementing FTA results
into policy and decision making, e.g. ex ante impact assessment and trend monitoring
of performance indicators;
•
Advantages and drawbacks of centralised and distributed forms of institutionalising
FTA activities;
•
Provision and use of horizon scanning functions in different contexts and at different
governance levels: results and experiences from practice;
•
Evaluation and impact assessment of FTA as a source of legitimacy.
Carabias, Vicente: JRC-IPTS, European Commission
[email protected]
Cassingena Harper, Jennifer: MCST, Malta
[email protected]
Könnölä, Totti: Impetu Solutions, Spain
[email protected]
Weber, Matthias: AIT, Austria
[email protected]
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Bottom-up Exploration of Structural
Transformation: Lessons from a Foresight
Exercise on the Future of Innovation
Elna Schirrmeister, Philine Warnke
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe, German. Elna.
[email protected]
Keywords: Innovation Patterns, Innovation Futures, Foresight, Signals.
Introduction
With this paper we would like to contribute towards „building FTA capacities for systemic and
structural transformations“ as suggested by theme 2 of the 2011 FTA conference. To this end
we will discuss experience from an ongoing Foresight project that is exploring future innovation
patterns. The INFU (Innovation Futures) project1 is financed by the European Commission in the
7th Framework Programme. It is investigating emerging new patterns of innovation characterised
by fundamental transformation in the way innovation is organised.
Methodology
Figure 1: INFU Methodology Scheme
1 http://www.innovation-futures.org/
Theme 2a: Systemic And Embedded Fta
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INFU is exploring the future of innovation in a bottom up approach (figure 1). In the first phase,
all sorts of observations of striking innovation practices were collected in a loose and open
manner. From these signals of change, 20 contrasted visions on the future of innovation were
generated by clustering and “amplification” (figure 2). These provocative projections were
discussed with actors with different perspectives on innovation patterns through interviews and
an online survey. On the base of all reactions on the contrasted visions seven “nodes of change”
were identified.
Figure 2: Three INFU Contrasted Visions
These nodes of change were then subjected to in-depth discussion within the INFU mini-panels
formed by groups of actors with a specific interest in these patterns of innovation. Only in the last
phase of the INFU project the nodes of change have been linked to widely perceived changes
on the macro environment in a scenario building process where several actors from the previous
phases participated. Throughout the process, INFU placed high emphasis on visualisation in
order to mobilise out-of-the-box thinking.
The INFU findings indicate interesting changes in the mediation between innovation demand
and innovation supply. A wide variety of hybrid value creation models with novel configurations
of innovation actors emerged. Prominent issues across mini-panels were the emergence of
more active roles for users and citizens, the need for adequate enabling platforms between
innovation demand and innovation supply, the need to adopt new innovation formats in order to
address societal needs and the increasing use of self-production facilities such as 3d-printing.
These findings imply new topics and approaches to innovation policy making as outlined in
the INFU policy briefs. Some of the proposed aspects of new innovation patterns such as the
“waste based innovation” or the “city level open innovation platform” seem particularly suitable
for aligning social and technological innovation towards structural transformation.
Conclusions
The innovative bottom-up INFU methodology succeeded in opening up new perspectives on the
future of innovation with relevance for society, business and policy. In particular, the INFU findings
may provide useful insights for innovation strategies directed at structural transformation for
addressing the Grand Challenges such as the Innovation Union Initiative. From a methodological
point of view it will be highly interesting to see how the integration of findings into consistent
scenarios of innovation landscapes in the next project phase will proceed.
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Innovation Policy Roadmapping as a Systemic
Instrument for Policy Design: Examples from
Victoria Australia
Toni Ahlqvist, Ville Valovirta, Jukka Hyvönen & Torsti
Loikkanen
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
forename.surname[at]vtt.fi
Keywords: innovation policy, roadmap, systemic instrument, policy design, Victoria, Australia.
Introduction
In formulation of national and regional innovation policies, there is a growing need to align perspectives
of technological and societal developments towards a more visionary framework, i.e. a structure that
steers policy formulation towards co-created, shared and explicitly stated future goals. In this paper,
we present the concept of innovation policy roadmapping (IPRM) which adapts the methodology of
more traditional technology roadmapping (TRM) to addressing critical innovation policy challenges
at the level of national and regional innovation systems, within a global context.
Methodology
There are three features that separate IPRM from more traditional TRM. Firstly, IPRM is targeted
at the systemic level of multiple actors and organisations. Thus the visionary process includes
many participants and different interests. This obviously sets some challenges to the organization
of the process. Secondly, IPRM combines the structure of more traditional TRM – including
such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers – with
empirically investigated view of the policy instruments currently utilised in the innovation system
under scrutiny. Hence the nuanced knowledge of the policy context and related practices is of
paramount importance. Thirdly, IPRM underlines the activities in the sphere of innovation policy
throughout the process, i.e. the outcomes of the process can be e.g. strategies to implement a
novel policy instrument or a strategy for a region to engage in an active market creation in the
context of some promising emerging technology.
As an empirical case we present a selection of results from the IPRM exercise carried out in
Victoria, Australia in 2009. The project was commissioned by DIIRD (Department of Industry,
Innovation and Regional Development of Victoria) which is a state government agency
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responsible for innovation and industrial policy of The State of Victoria. The project was carried out
as collaborative undertaking by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and ICS (Intellectual
Capital Services Ltd.). Project aimed at identification of key emerging technology trends by year
2020 that could be utilised as a source of sustainable competitive advantage in the future. Specific
emphasis was laid on the aspects of emerging technologies, technology convergence and on
the concomitant innovation policy conclusions. The project produced detailed roadmaps of nine
sectors of industrial technologies. In this paper we focus on how the method stimulates systemic
transformation at different spatial levels. To flesh out this process, we present selected examples
from three roadmaps: 1) building & construction, 2) packaging & paper and 3) scientific, industrial
and medical instruments. With these examples, we illustrate how responding to grand challenges
can be facilitated by a systemic roadmapping process with an explicit aim to facilitate emergence
of new innovation dynamics.
Conclusions
Aligning the perspectives between development of new technologies, business models, sociotechnical systems, and policy instruments lies at the core of our approach. We conclude by
assessing the future potential and challenges of the IPRM approach.
References (selected)
Ahlqvist, T. (2009). Roadmaps and policy-making. Lecture at the roadmapping course for DIIRD (Department of
Industry, Innovation and Regional Development). Phillip Island, Victoria, Australia 15th of September 2009.
Blackwell, A.F., Phaal, R., Eppler, M. & Crilly, N. (2008). Strategy roadmaps: new forms, newpractices. In Stapleton,
G., Howse, J. and Lee, J. (Eds.). Diagrams 2008. Springer-Verlag, Berlin/Heidelberg,127–140.
Geels F.W. (2004). From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems Insights about dynamics and
change from sociology and institutional theory. Research Policy 33, 897–920.
Heiskanen, E., Kivisaari, S., Lovio, R. & Mickwitz, P. (2009). Designed to travel? Transition management encounters
environmental and innovation policy histories in Finland. Article to be published in Policy Science DOI 10.1007/
s11077-009-9094-2.
Kostoff, R.N. & Schaller, R.R. (2001). Science and technology roadmaps. IEEE Transactions on Engineering
Management 48:2, 132–143.
Kostoff, R.N., Boylan, R. & Simons, G.R. (2004). Disruptive technology roadmaps. Technological Forecasting &
Social Change 71:2, 141–59.
Lee, S., & Y. Park. (2005). Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: overall
process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72: 567–583.
Phaal, R. & Muller, G. (2009). An architectural framework for roadmapping: towards visual strategy. Technological
Forecasting & Social Change 76, 39–49.
Probert, D. & Radnor, M. (2003). Frontier experiences from industry-academia consortia. Corporate roadmappers
create value with product and technology roadmaps. Research–Technology Management, March-April, 27–30.
Rotmans, J., Kemp, R. & Van Asselt, M. (2001). More evolution than revolution: transition management in public
policy. Foresight 3:1, 15–31.
Smits, R. & Kuhlmann, S. (2004). The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy. International Journal of
Foresight and Innovation Policy 1:1/2, 4–32.
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Implementing Systemic RTI Priorities: Recent
Experience from Germany
Philine Warnke*, Volker Wiedemer**, Simone EhrenbergSillies*, Amina Beyer-Kutzner***
*Fraunhofer Institute of Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe
**VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH, Berlin Germany
***German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
Keywords: Foresight, priority setting, innovation policy, systemic transformation.
Introduction
The paper is addressing theme 1 and 2 of the FTA call for abstract in an integrated manner.
We set out from the assumption that – due to the intrinsically systemic nature of the “grand
challenges” - a key requirement for “orienting innovation systems towards global challenges” is
to “build capacities for structural and systemic transformation”.
We focus on Foresight a systemic innovation policy instrument that has long been recognised for
its ability of not only “wiring up” but also “orienting” innovation systems (Martin, Johnston 1999).
Dealing with structural and systemic transformation poses several challenges to Foresight
theory and practice. Imagining “change in the conditions of change” (Miller 2007) rather than just
extrapolating the present and recognising the complex interplay of society and technology in a
systemic manner (Warnke, Heimeriks 2008) both require a strong methodological framework.
In this paper however we focus on the post-Foresight phase. In particular, we explore the
challenges involved in embedding innovation priorities that are directed at “structural and
systemic transformation” into the innovation landscape and in particular policy strategies. As
an empirical case we investigate the follow-up activities of the BMBF-Foresight-Process that
was carried out in Germany from 2007-2009 and proposed a set of cross-cutting and systemic
long-term priorities for German innovation policy (Cuhls et al. 2010, Bode, Beyer-Kutzner 2010):
the “new future fields”. The follow-up activities were launched by BMBF in order to underpin the
implementation of the Foresight’s findings.
Methodology
The following core elements form the BMBF-Foresight implementation phase:
o
o
o
strategic dialogues with key actors inside and outside the ministry
a “monitoring system” observing the “new future fields”
an integrated evaluation process
The strategic dialogues aim to foster the embedding of the suggested “future fields” into the
German RTI landscape. In order to realise the systemic perspective of these priorities, actor
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strategies that are currently organised around technology fields or in disciplinary settings are
being aligned into novel transformative approaches throughout the RTI landscape including
BMBF itself and other ministries.
In parallel, the “monitoring-system” is observing the new future fields. In order to be able to
assess a potential future innovation arena that is not yet established, classical scientometric
methods such as patent or bibliometric analysis cannot be directly applied. Accordingly, the
system deploys an innovative semi-quantitative assessment approach which is based on a
morphological box with four different dimensions which are continuously observed and assessed
in a half-yearly status report.
Currently, the follow-up activities are focussing on two “future fields”: Human-TechnologyCooperation and ProductionConsumption2.0. Several dialogues have taken place and the
monitoring system has delivered its first status report. Whereas all indicators are pointing
towards the continued need for both the systemic innovation priorities, the observation of the
implementation indicates that the main challenge to putting transformative innovation priorities
into practice is the strong embedding of established disciplinary and non-systemic perspectives
into the very structure of RTI landscape across all levels and realms. In particular integrated
research across social sciences and humanities on the one hand and natural science and
engineering on the other, which is required for both priorities, encounters institutional barriers.
Conclusions
The experience from the BMBF-Foresight’s follow up activities suggest that in order to address
structural transformation through demand oriented RTI priority setting, as it is requested by the
“Lund Declaration” and Europe2020 Strategy, we need to address the institutional dimensions
of these transitions in our FTA capacity building as it has been done by BMBF. Otherwise it does
not seem likely that RTI programmes will pay more than lip service to the “grand challenges”
of our time.
References
Cuhls, K.; Beyer-Kutzner, A.; Bode, O.; Ganz, W.; Warnke, P. (2010): The BMBF Foresight Process. In:
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 76 (2009) 1187–1197
Martin, B.R.; Johnston, R. (1999): Technology Foresight for Wiring up the National Innovation System.
Experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 60,
pp. 37-54.
Miller, R. (2007): Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 39 (4), pp. 341-362.
Warnke, P.; Heimeriks, G. (2008): Technology Foresight as Innovation Policy Instrument: Learning from
Science and Technology Studies. In: Cagnin, C.; Keenan, M.; Johnston, R.; Scapolo, F.; Barre, R. (eds.):
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy. Springer, pp. 71-87.
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Embedding Foresight in the Joint Programming
Process for Research
Totti Könnölä *, Karel Haegeman **, Ken Guy **
*Impetu Solutions, Calle Víctor Andrés Belaunde, 36, 28016 Madrid, Spain, Tel: +34 65 83 21 050,
[email protected]
**European Commission, JRC-IPTS, Edificio EXPO. C/ Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Sevilla, Spain,
[email protected]
[email protected]
Keywords: Transnational R&D collaboration, priority setting, foresight, Joint Programming,
European Innovation Partnerships.
Introduction
This paper looks into the role of foresight as a decision support tool in international agenda
setting and resource allocation, with a particular focus on how it could be institutionalised and
embedded in research and innovation decision-making settings shaped by a wide variety
of scientific, social, economic and political factors. In particular, the paper focuses on Joint
Programming (JP) in Research, which is seen as key to the realisation of the European
Research Area (ERA) and crucial to the success of efforts to address many of the major societal
challenges that the EU and the world are facing.
At its meeting of 26/11/2010, the Competitiveness Council invited Member States to define
the role JP could play in terms of realising the aims of the Europe 2020 strategy. It also invited
to comment on the ways in which JP could relate to the concept of European Innovation
Partnerships. The role Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), particularly foresight, could
play in the future development of JP is discussed within this overarching policy context.
In theory, foresight has the potential to be an essential ingredient of JP, especially in terms of
facilitating the early identification of emerging issues and informing the selection of appropriate
themes for JP, but it could also be important at other stages of the JP process (e.g. vision
building, development of a strategic research agenda, implementation etc.). To date, however,
foresight has not been a key feature of JP, especially in terms of priority setting, which has been
influenced in different ways in different settings by the often contradictory priorities of different
communities, e.g. the scientific and political communities. Based on an examination of the way in
which foresight has been used to shape other types of transnational collaboration, however, this
paper argues that foresight constitutes an exemplary way of exploring and resolving potential
conflicts between different drivers, thus helping to construct a sound bedrock upon which JP
can be founded.
Theme 2b: Methods And Tools
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Methodology
By examining recent examples of the use of foresight to shape different forms of transnational
cooperation in research and innovation, a methodological framework is developed that
distinguishes between contextual, outcome and process driven objectives for establishing
foresight activities. Our methodological framework is used to evaluate the design, management
and impacts of recent foresight exercises related to ERA-NETs, Technology Platforms and other
forms of transnational collaboration.
We also explore how foresight activities can support decision-making via the construction of
crucial repositories of knowledge, which opens the door to a discussion of ‘embedded foresight’.
Building on hands-on experience gained whilst contributing to the development of the voluntary
‘Guidelines on Framework Conditions for Joint Programming’, we discuss different options for
embedding foresight in JP in a flexible way that harnesses its potential for conflict resolution and
consensus building whilst still preserving its ability to stimulate creative thinking and suggest
alternative ways forward.
The results of the analysis support our initial hypothesis that, in addition to its role in the
identification and elaboration of relevant topics for JP, foresight can help build stakeholder
commitment. In particular, it provides systemic understanding that better allows Member States
to position JP initiatives in the European System of Research and innovation, and it facilitates
the development of new coalitions that can support the creative and effective implementation of
JP. In terms of policy implications, some suggestions are offered concerning the ways in which
foresight can be used to avoid duplication and create synergies between JP and the processes
involved in establishing other transnational initiatives, e.g. European Innovation Partnerships,
and suggestions are formulated concerning ways of embedding foresight in institutional
structures. More generally, the analysis deepens our understanding of what foresight can offer
to joint agenda setting and resource allocation in different international contexts.
Conclusions
The paper offers new insights into the roles foresight can play in international priority setting
and, more specifically, in the selection and implementation of JP initiatives. It elaborates
a conceptual framework that is used to analyse recent foresight activities relevant to JP.
Institutional bottlenecks to the use of foresight in JP are identified and ways of overcoming them
elaborated. The role of foresight vis-à-vis the establishment of effective links between JP and
the development of European Innovation Partnerships is also covered.
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References
Amanatidou, E. (2008). “Joint foresight”: towards a mechanism for joint programming in Europe?, foresight,
10(6).103 – 117.
Brummer, V., Könnölä, T. & Salo, A. (2008). Foresight within Era-Nets: Experiences from the Preparation of an
International Research Programme. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75, 483–495.
Conclusions on joint programming in research, 3049th COMPETITIVENESS Council meeting, Brussels, 26
November 2010.
Joint Programming in research 2008-2010 and beyond, Report of the High Level Group on Joint Programming
to the Council, November 2010.
European Commission (2010) - COM(2010) 546 final - Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union.
Brussels.
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Application Of Foresight Methods For The
Determination Of Priority Research Directions Of
The Future
Beata Poteralska
Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute, ul. K. Pulaskiego 6/10, 26-600
Radom, [email protected]
Keywords: priority research directions, key factors, sustainable development, environmental
technologies.
Introduction
Innovativeness and competitiveness of the advanced product and process technologies are
the basic factors deciding on the directions and the pace of the development of contemporary
knowledge-based economy. The need to identify the priority research areas, and the advanced
technologies of the future, are determined by their key role in the economic and social growth
of a country. Foresight projects are an effective tool applied in the identification of economic,
scientific and technological priorities, future technologies and the creation of the vision of their
development.
The article presents methodology of forecasting research directions crucial for the development
of the competitiveness and innovativeness of the Polish enterprises and technological institutes.
Application of the methodology is presented on the basis of environmental technologies, one of
the key areas of technical support for the economy’s sustainable development.
Methodology
The approach considering the micro scale, understood as the generation of the research
directions realised at the R&D institutions, as well as the macro scale composed of the national
strategic directions inspired by, among others, the results of the Polish sectoral foresight projects
and European directions inspired by the strategic documents of the European Union, the results
of foresight projects realised abroad and of international research projects, was adapted when
generating the future research directions. Moreover, it was assumed that the priority directions
would be set with the simultaneous consideration of the existing scientific and technological
potential and its predicted growth in the specific time scale needed for the realisation of R&D
tasks planned.
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Among the key mechanisms of generating future research directions were the analysis of the
state-of-the-art and the expert analyses.
The analysis of the state-of-the-art was done in the iterative system and formed the basis for
the identification of priority research directions, within which the literature analysis of the current
state-of-the-art allowing to determine the most important, and previously not incorporated
research directions was conducted. The verification of the priority research directions was
thus possible. The description of the state-of-the-art included both the cognitive performance
of Polish, European or international scientific institutions leading in a given domain and the
technological achievements resulting in innovations complying with global world wide standards
and ready to be commercially deployed.
The aim of the expert analyses was to support the analysis of the state-of-the-art. External experts
representing the science, industry and public administration sectors, who had not participated
in the initial identification of future research directions, assessed the priority research directions
in the scale of the country and the sector. The consideration of the experts’ remarks enabled
the modification and extension of the proposed research directions, and in consequence the
selection of new future research directions.
The results obtained embrace general research directions on the national and global level and
integrated groups of these directions, including both incremental and emerging technologies in
a selected area of strategic importance comprising environmental technologies.
The proof of the successful implementation of the methodology developed, is “Innovative
Systems of Technical Support for Sustainable Development of the Country’s Economy” strategic
project launched in the thematic area generated with the use of the methodology designed,
co-financed from the European structural funds, prepared and co-ordinated by the Institute
represented by the author of the paper.
Conclusions
The proposed methodology enables the generation of future research directions which support
the sustainable economic development and are supposed to be realised at the R&D institutions
in a short and long-term and include the incremental and emerging technologies together with
the research directions integrated with them that are likely to be undertaken by other scientific
centres and the technologically advanced enterprises. The proposal of operational activity,
within the formula of strategic programmes, directed at the practical realisation of the selected
novel research directions has been presented. The currently built computer system equipped
with the module of the short and long-term prognosis is a useful tool supporting the forecast of
innovative technologies and research directions.
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References
Albright R., Nelson B. Product and Technology Mapping Tools for Planning and Portfolio Decision Making. W:
Belliveau P., Griffin A., Somermeyer S. (eds.). John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2004.
Foresight Methodologies, Technology Foresight Initiative, Training Module 2, UNIDO, Vienna, Austria, 2004
Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B., Sacio-Szymańska A.: Application of foresight methods for the determination
of strategic research directions. Innovative Technological Solution for Sustainable Development. Instytut
Technologii Eksploatacji-PIB Radom (Poland) - Szanghai (China). pp. 299-316, ISSN 9788372049551.
Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B., Technological innovations supporting sustainable development of the
economy. Selected problems., w: Memorias de 15 Convencion Scientifica de Ingenieria y Arquitectura,
Ministerio de Educacion Superior, 2010, ISBN: 978-959-261-317-1, Cuba
Phaal R., Farrukh C. J. P., Probert D. R., Fast-start technology roadmapping, Management of Technology,
the Key to Prosperity in the Third Millennium, Proceedings of the IAMOT 9th International Conference,
Pergamon, 2000.’
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Social Attitude Toward Sustainable Development in
2025: a Case for Reinforcing Scenario Design
José Miguel Fernández Güell
Professor and Deputy Director of the Urban and Regional Planning Department, Universidad
Politécnica de Madrid, Member of the Research Group GIAU+S
Leticia Redondo Gómez
Doctoral Student, Urban and Regional Planning Department, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Address: Departamento de Urbanística y Ordenación del Territorio -- Escuela Técnica Superior de
Arquitectura - Avenida Juan de Herrera, 4 – 28040 Madrid – Spain - [email protected]
Keywords: Territorial foresight, scenario design, sustainable development.
Introduction
This paper shows the role that some foresight tools, such as scenario design, may play in
exploring the future impacts of global challenges in our contemporary Society. Additionally, it
provides some clues about how to reinforce scenario design so that it displays more in-depth
analysis without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages.
Since its inception in the early seventies, scenario design has become one of the most popular
foresight tools used in several fields of knowledge. Nevertheless, its wide acceptance has not
been seconded by the urban planning academic and professional realm. In some instances,
scenario design is just perceived as a story telling technique that generates oversimplified future
visions without the support of rigorous and sound analysis. As a matter of fact, the potential
of scenario design for providing more in-depth analysis and for connecting with quantitative
methods has been generally missed, giving arguments away to its critics.
Based on these premises, this document tries to prove the capability of scenario design to
anticipate the impacts of complex global challenges and to do it in a more analytical way. These
assumptions are tested through a scenario design exercise which explores the future evolution of
the sustainable development paradigm (SD) and its implications in the Spanish urban model.
Methodology
Following the conventional scenario design methodology, 3 scenarios are built for the year
2025.
Scenario A: Green Paradigm. It takes place when there is a favourable response
from public and private agents toward SD and there are sufficient resources required
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to achieve sustainable development. “Green Paradigm” stages an environmentally
conscious society, in which most citizens participate in public decision-making.
Scenario B: Predator Development. It occurs when resources of all types are
abundant, but at the same time public and private agents have either a slow or a
passive reaction to sustainability challenges. “Predator Development” represents
a society that disregards environmental issues as noncritical, compared to its
consumption needs.
Scenario C: Back to Basics. In this scenario, there is a significant shortage of
resources due to a prolonged recession, but at the same time, the Spanish society
as a whole supports sustainable development models. In “Back to Basics”, public and
private agents are fully conscious of the need for sustainable development.
Most scenarios exercises are finished with the description of geopolitical, economic, societal and
technological contexts. Regardless of their ingenuity and descriptive details, this kind of output
is generally perceived as insufficient and trivial by most urban planners. In order to reinforce
the perception of scenario design as a useful and added value instrument, a more profound
analysis is displayed by determining the scenarios implications in a small territory located in the
periphery of Madrid metropolitan area. This process follows three steps:
1) Scenarios functional implications. A conceptual framework displays the overall urban
planning process. This framework is made up of a value chain supported by a group
of horizontal elements, such as governance model, legal framework, technology
base, and management skills.
2)
Scenarios parametric implications. A set of urban parameters is activated to show
quantitative implications of diverging scenarios regarding sustainable development.
Parameters are estimated through diverse forecasting tools.
3)
Scenarios spatial implications. Alternative images of urban growth, infrastructure
networks and land use patterns are shown. With adequate resources, a GIS related
software can be incorporated to simulate the scenarios development patterns.
These three sets of implications provide substantial and in-depth information for policy makers.
Conclusions
This study provides five major sets of findings. First, it is feasible to set up a systematic
approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect
the natural environment and socioeconomic fabric of a given territory. Second, certain life styles
and economic models present long-range implications on the attainment of a more sustainable
urban development. Third, there are opportunities for innovating in the Spanish urban planning
processes and city governance models. Fourth, as a foresight tool, scenario design can be
substantially reinforced if proper efforts are put to display functional, parametric and spatial
implications generated by the scenarios. Fifth, the study confirms that foresight offers interesting
opportunities for urban planners, such as anticipating changes, formulating visions, fostering
participation and building networks.
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References
Fernández Güell, José Miguel (2011). “Recuperación de los estudios del futuro a través de la prospectiva
territorial” en la Revista Ciudad y Territorio – Estudios Territoriales, Nº 167, Primavera 2011.
Fernández Güell, José Miguel (2006). Planificación estratégica de ciudades: Nuevos instrumentos y
procesos. Barcelona: Editorial Reverté.
Foresight for Regional Development Network (FOREN) (2001).
Sevilla: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS).
Practical Guide to Regional Foresight.
Fundación OPTI y Valora Consultores (2007). Estudio de prospectiva sobre el comportamiento social
ante el desarrollo sostenible. Madrid: OPTI.
Gavigan, James P. y Scapolo, Fabiana (2001). “La prospectiva y la visión del desarrollo regional a largo
plazo” in The IPTS Report, Nº 56, july 2001.
Isserman, Andrew M. (1985): “Dare to plan: An essay on the role of the future in planning practice and
education”, en Town Planning Review, Nº 56 (4), (483-491).
Wachs, Martin (2001): “Forecasting versus Envisioning: A new window on the future”, en American Planning
Association Journal, Vol. 67, Nº 4, (367-372).
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A Business Framework for Building Anticipatory
Capacity to Manage Disruptive and Transformative
Change and Lead Business Networks Towards
Sustainability
Cristiano Cagnin
Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS),
[email protected]
Denis Loveridge
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, [email protected]
Keywords: business sustainability, networks, dialogue, sympoietic systems, FTA, transformative
and disruptive change.
Introduction
The paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable businesses to develop
a capacity to anticipate and address change within the networks in which they are embedded,
using FTA thinking to shape businesses path towards sustainability.
The proposed framework has been devised to enable firms to become a participant who helps
shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the
changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships. Ultimately, it should enable
firms and their networks to behave like sympoietic systems, which are complex, self-organising
but collectively producing, boundaryless systems that are evolutionary, distributivelly controlled,
unpredictable and adaptive [1].
Methodology
The main question is ‘how can businesses be helped to follow a sustainable development path’?
The study reflects this question and meets the final main objective to build a management
framework to support enterprises in shaping a common vision for sustainability to be pursued
across its network of business and regulatory relationships by anticipating and addressing change.
The research uses a qualitative approach [2], the elements of which are described from the
perspective of the intended case studies [3]. The latter used, as a main tool, structured interviews
with key actors inside the chosen companies.
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The study was designed [4] to enable a comparison between a regulated and a non-regulated
firm. The idea was to understand if there was any difference between (a) the vision of key
individuals inside each organisation with respect to what is necessary to create a path to
sustainable development, and (b) if the different framework conditions between the enterprises
would also create differences concerning what was considered necessary for the development
of a sustainable business.
Both an individual and a common ‘map’ linking the identified business activities and the
information flow among them was developed for the two organisations: this was done using the
IDEF_0 method [5] supported by interviews with key actors inside the organisations to validate
all information.
The Delphi Technique [6] was also used to validate the case studies results by submitting it to
a number of experts for comment and to ensure that all the important variables, information,
technologies and elements were included on the final model.
Results and implications
The Delphi exercise produced enough information to develop a critical path to help businesses
to progress in the direction of sustainable development (i.e. maturity model): this was developed
using the CMM methodology [7]. Through the identification of different levels of responsibility/
sustainability it was possible to design the management framework to help businesses to
develop, together with partners, their path to sustainable development and ways to move in
that direction [8].
The management framework links the activities that need to be performed at each stage of the
business to build an organisation’s ability to know itself (how things are done in the present).
From this self-knowing, a business will be able to design the necessary actions to achieve the
desirable future (how things should be done according to the business’ and its network’s vision).
It is the process of seeking, in the present, to bridge continuously the gap between the present
and the future, which is believed to enhance and enable businesses to sustain competitive
advantages and follow a path to sustainable development.
The learning process embedded in the proposed management framework differs from those in
existing management tools. It becomes a continual process which takes place during each
implementation cycle. Hence, when a new cycle is about to begin the enterprise will be armed
with better and clearer opportunities to make an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance
in alignment with partners. The basis of this evolutionary leap is in the ability to build a
continuous, collaborative learning process founded on an inclusive and active dialogue among
all stakeholders, which can be translated by the firm’s capability of developing a ‘meta learning’
[9] process in the network.
Conclusions
A model of sustainable business activity was devised by unlocking the value activities within
a firm’s network through the analysis of CSR in theory and practice, as well as the analysis
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of the important features needed to build a firm’s sustainable competitive advantage. By
incorporating three business management principles – do things right the first time; do the right
thing; and continuous improvement and innovation – a management framework was designed.
This is a dynamic tool that evolves together with the learning process within the network in
which the organisation is embedded and seeks to enable an alignment of social-environmental
strategies with the core business strategy across the network, clarifying the connections
among the value activities in the network. The objective is to help firms’ networks to achieve
a sustainable business performance. Also, to help organisations to create a tailored, as well
as a common strategy in its network of relationships, achieving influence among its partners
to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development, in order to achieve the desired
common vision of sustainability.
References
[1] Dempster, B. (2000), Sympoietic and autopoietic systems: A new distinction for self-organizing systems,
Proceedings of the World Congress of the Systems Sciences and ISSS.
[2] Bryman, A. (2001), Social Research Methods, New York: Oxford University Press.
[3] Yin, R.K. (1989), Case Study Research – Design and Methods, Newbury Park: SAGE.
[4] Nachmias, D. & Nachmias, C. (1987), Research Methods in Social Science, 3rd ed., New York: St Martin’s
Press.
[5] Hanrahan, R. P. (1995), The IDEF Process Modeling Methodology, Software Technology Support Center.
[6] Gupta, U. G & Clarke, R. E. (1996), Theory and Applications of the Delphi Technique: A Bibliography (1975
– 1994), New York: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 53, pp. 185-211.
[7] Fraser, M. D. & Vaishnavi, V. K. (1997), A Formal Specifications Maturity Model, Association for Computing
Machinery, Communications of the CMM, Vol. 40, No. 12, pp. 95-103.
[8] Cagnin, C. H. (2005), An Information Architecture to Enable Business Sustainability. PhD Thesis, PREST.
[9] Losada, M. (1999), The Complex Dynamics of High Performance Teams, Mathematical and Computer
Modelling, Vol. 30, pp. 179-192.
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Social Business as Future Institutional Technology
in European Countries
Stefanie Mauksch, Henning Engelke, Inga-Lena Darkow,
Heiko von der Gracht
Centre for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management, EBS Business School,
Soehnleinstraße 8F, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germany
[email protected]
Keywords: Social Business, Social Entrepreneurship; Third Sector, Futures Studies, Delphi.
Introduction
In recent years, industrialized economies have increasingly faced social problems such as
changing demographics, unemployment or education deficiencies. Due to limited financial and
organizational resources, public sectors struggle with offering solutions to these problems. In
the face of those difficulties, the private sector has started to engage in formerly public interest
issues and offers innovative and sustainable solutions to social problems. Entrepreneurial
activities have been launched to address pressing social needs for which the public sector has
failed to provide solutions. The combination of entrepreneurial performance and the tackling
of social issues has evolved as a distinct institutional form: social business. Internationally
promoted by Nobel peace prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, the concept attracts interest in
both developing and industrial countries. Several scientific contributions already put focus on
social business or social enterprises as an innovative, socially oriented business (Defourny &
Nyssens, 2010; Yunus, Moingeon, & Lehmann-Ortega, 2010).
Methodology
In this paper, we present survey data of expert views on the future development of social
business in an industrialized country. Germany is already subject of other scientific
contributions regarding the broad field of social business, mainly based on case studies
(Achleitner, 2007). With this research, we aim to structure expert knowledge and deepen the
understanding of uncertain future events regarding social business in Germany. Thereby,
we focus on environmental conditions like legal, social and institutional surroundings and
long-term consequences of social businesses to provide solutions for social needs in an
industrialized country, which is inline with Klein, Mahoney, McGahan, & Pitelis (2010). We
conducted a Delphi survey, which has – over the past decades – proven to be a profound
technique for foresight and scientific long-term analysis, such as scenario analysis (Landeta,
2006). We composed a panel of 68 experts from academia, for-profit companies, NGOs and
social entrepreneurs in order to capture a broad and differentiated perspective of the future of
social business in Germany. Furthermore, our results were used to develop extreme scenarios
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for the establishment of social businesses in Germany in order to gain a better understanding
of the concept’s future.
This most recent survey gives insights into the future potential of social businesses as an
innovative institutional technology in addressing continuous societal changes in industrial
countries. Results include the expected probability, impact on the German economy and the
occurrence desirability for 16 propositions. Furthermore, the analysis includes a strategic map
for the probable and desirable future of social business and extreme scenarios. Following the
1,212 arguments posted during the survey, experts see the development of social business
accompanied by a “change in the social value system” which underlines our assumption in the
multi-stakeholder discussion that social business will contribute to societal change to a certain
extent. Furthermore, we developed four extreme scenarios based on the Delphi results: “The
Social Guardian”, “Social Paradise”, “The Social Fallow” and “Social Capitalism”. Implications
for policy makers are the need of a special legal status of social businesses, standardized
governance structures and inclusion into education and research programmes. This might
provide the framework for social businesses to prosper in Germany and are likely to enable
them to address societal change, where established approaches do not contribute to social
solutions. The extreme scenarios allow political decision makers as well as social business
managers and entrepreneurs to consider and evaluate different possible futures and prepare
them to act accordingly.
Conclusions
With this paper, we offer insights for further discussion and research on social business and
its potential influence on society by including a broad range of factors on the competitiveness
and the potential of social business as a business concept. The scenarios provide complex
pictures that display a range of considerations and possibilities of how and to what scale social
business may establish (Masini & Vasquez, 2000). As the German case can be taken as a
model for problems many European countries are facing, our findings can be employed as a
starting point for bringing the social business innovation to a strengthened and contextualized
academic debate. Further research venues could cover pathways to develop social business to
an institutional technology in European countries.
References
Achleitner, A. K. (2007). Social Entrepreneurship und Venture Philanthropy-Erste Ansätze in Deutschland.
Management am Puls der Zeit. Festschrift für Univ. Prof. Dr. Dr. hc mult. Horst Wildemann, 1, 57-70.
Defourny, J., & Nyssens, M. (2010). Social enterprise in Europe: At the crossroads of market, public policies
and third sector. Policy and Society, 29(3), 231-242.
Klein, P. G., Mahoney, J. T., McGahan, A. M., & Pitelis, C. N. (2010). Toward a theory of public entrepreneurship.
European Management Review, 7(1), 1-15.
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Landeta, J. (2006). Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences. Technological Forecasting and
Social Change, 73(5), 467-482.
Masini, E. B., & Vasquez, J. M. (2000). Scenarios as Seen from a Human and Social Perspective. Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 49-66.
Yunus, M., Moingeon, B., & Lehmann-Ortega, L. (2010). Building Social Business Models: Lessons from the
Grameen Experience. Long Range Planning, 43(2-3), 308-325.
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Uncertainty, Foresight and Strategic Decision
Making: Evidence from Leading Companies
Riccardo Vecchiato
Politecnico di Milano - P.zza Leonardo da Vinci, 32 - 20133 Milano, Italy - Ph.: +39 02 23993994
[email protected]
Claudio Roveda
Politecnico di Milano - P.zza Leonardo da Vinci, 32 - 20133 Milano, Italy - Ph.: +39 02 23993994
[email protected]
Keywords: Environmental uncertainty; decision making; foresight practices and techniques;
planning; learning.
Introduction
The strategic management literature and the organization theory literature have long emphasized
the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision makers in
charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.
A broad range of heuristic approaches for carrying out future studies have been developed in
corporate organizations with the aim of promptly selecting drivers of change in the company’s
outside environment (environmental scanning) and of investigating their likely evolution and
impact on the organization (future-oriented techniques). Today the term ‘foresight’ is widely
used to designate the activities and processes that assist decision makers in the task of charting
the company’s future course of action by encompassing either scanning or future-oriented
techniques.
So far, foresight has achieved uneven success and popularity. Some skepticism arose in the
academic community regarding the soundness and appropriateness of foresight for making
predictions about the future and, thus, for supporting predictive strategies. The major evidence
of this skepticism may be the fact that today it is not specifically addressed by most MBA
curricula and so far only a limited number of validated analyses of future studies have been
hosted by leading academic journals.
Supporting scholars and practitioners generally respond to concern about the reliability of
foresight by arguing that its role is not so much to predict the future, but to prepare the firm for the
future through a learning process. Still, the following questions remain largely unexplored: what
different kinds of uncertainty (drivers of change) may be faced in the business environment?
how should a firm design the right foresight approach, i.e. what type of techniques and practices
should be adopted in different business environments and thus in the face of different kinds of
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uncertainty?
These are precisely the main questions we deal with in this paper. Their relevance is extremely
high because deciding what firms should do next in uncertain situations is a key issue in the
literature on strategic management, and at the center of the debate between the planning and
the learning schools.
Methodology
In order to explore the relationships between environmental uncertainty, foresight, and strategic
decision making we performed a multiple case study of corporate organizations. In this paper
we focus on major companies that operate in the chemical industry, the automotive industry,
consumer electronics, and the ICT sector.
First, we expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of
‘boundary uncertainty’. Boundary uncertainty involves the identity of the main components of
the business microenvironment (i.e., rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products, potential
entrants), the activities of their value chain, and the mechanisms – business models - through
which they try to create and capture value.
With the concept of boundary uncertainty as a backdrop, we distinguish between two main kinds
of drivers of change. The first one is ‘continuous’ drivers of change that support and enhance
the traditional identity of the main components of the business microenvironment, leading to
incremental developments in the value chain and the business models of established firms,
and thus in their main kinds of activities and products. Such drivers are typical of mature global
industries where trajectories of technologies and customer needs are well-established and
companies compete for market share at the international level. The second one is ‘discontinuous’
drivers of change that have disruptive effects on the business models of established firms and
lead to completely new kinds of products, players and activities in the value chain. Such drivers
are typical of emerging industries and more generally of industries where technology is the main
driving force and new customer needs rise to the fore.
We shed light on the implications of boundary uncertainty for foresight and strategic decision
making, and advance a conceptual framework of foresight efforts and practices as a contingent
methodological and organizational approach.
Conclusions
Our work relates to several fields of research in strategy and organization. First, it improves
our understanding of the different kinds of uncertainty and drivers of change that a firm may
face in the business environment. Second, it provides empirical evidence on the ways foresight
activities of large organizations might be integrated and how the results might be used to support
strategic decision making. In particular, it provides the broad outline of a conceptual framework
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about how to cope with different kinds of uncertainty (boundary, state, effect, and response
uncertainty) through different methodological and organizational approaches. In this way, we
try to enhance the academic standing of foresight and its use by practitioners: matching the
right foresight approach with the specific kind of uncertainty faced by the firm is an essential
condition in order to foster and nurture the learning process about the future which scholars
and practitioners in the field have suggested as the main contribution of foresight to strategic
decision making.
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FTA Capacity Building in a Broad Sense: FTA to
Change Prevailing Attitudes and Organisational
Settings that Prevent Participatory StrategySetting Processes
Attila Havas
Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budaorsi ut 45., H-1112 Budapest,
HUNGARY
e-mail for correspondence: [email protected]
Keywords: national innovation systems (NIS); policy governance sub-systems (PGS); the
prospects for, and role of, FTA in changing attitudes and organisational settings.
Introduction
There are even stronger needs for strategic thinking in Central and Eastern European countries
and the so-called Newly Independent States (former Soviet Republics) [CEE/NIS] than in the
advanced countries, given their specific challenges, in particular their fundamental political and
socio-economic transition processes, as well as major changes in their external environment.
Yet, long-term thinking is discredited across the region. Moreover, several of these countries
only exist as sovereign entities only for 20 years, and hence thinking ahead of 20-25 years is
almost beyond the imagination of decision-makers. The presentation illustrates this general
phenomenon with the example of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies.
Methodology
The discussion of these issues are based on the author’s personal experience with several
foresight programmes, interactions with policy-makers in the region, analysed through the
lens of evolutionary economics of innovation. As a background, stylised facts of the national
innovation systems in the CEE/NIS regions are also considered, as well as the main features
of strategy-setting processes, characterising the policy governance sub-systems (PGSs). The
major dimensions to describe an actual PGS include: oligopolistic vs. distributed structure;
degree and type of legitimisation (process and/or output legitimacy); systematic vs. sparse, ad
hoc use of policy preparation tools (PPTs).
Results and policy impact/ implications
Policy-makers in the CEE/NIS region do not rely on modern decision-preparatory tools to a
sufficient extent, and quite often do not realise the close interconnections between research,
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technological development and innovation (RTDI) processes and socio-economic development.
Thus, in many cases, they are only willing to support RTDI when they can “afford” – although it
should be the other way around: “we spend on promoting RTDI processes, because we want to
foster wealth creation”. STI policies are isolated from each other, and major economic policies
are not co-ordinated with STI policies.
FTA activities, especially foresight (given its participatory nature) may change these attitudes,
but exactly because of the above factors, “genuine” (“fully-fledged”) foresight processes are rare
in the region. One cannot observe strong commitment for profound foresight processes, that is,
serious consideration and determined implementation of policy recommendations, introducing
a new decision-making culture, along with a new way of thinking, with more emphasis on
communication, co-operation, and generating consensus among the major stakeholders, and
commitments to take joint – or, at least orchestrated – action, based on shared visions.
Conclusions
The main conclusion of the presentation is that building FTA capacities for structural
transformations in emerging economies should be understood in a broader sense than in
advanced countries, which can rely on deeply embedded strategic intelligence sub-systems.
Besides developing professional competences of FTA practitioners – both in the form of
specialised, ‘external’ FTA service providers and internal FTA units located at policy-making
bodies or large businesses – creating (or in some cases: strengthening) ‘absorptive’ capacities
of politicians and policy-makers, as well as raising awareness among stakeholders is also of
crucial importance. That sort of capacity building is needed to launch FTA activities in the first
place, and then ‘translate’ FTA results into policies, which are systematically implemented.
Advantages and drawbacks of centralised and distributed forms of institutionalising FTA
activities in CEE/NIS need to be considered in this broader sense, and actions are to be devised
accordingly.
International co-operation, in particular when assisted by international FTA networks, can raise
awareness among policy-makers and other stakeholders, and also enhance the chances of
success by sharing lessons, easing the lack of financial and intellectual resources through
exploiting synergies and economies of scale. It is crucial, however, to maintain the commitment
of local actors, e.g. in terms of time and funds devoted to foresight, and willingness to implement
the results. In other words, the main forms of foreign assistance should be the provision of
knowledge-sharing platforms and other fora to exchange experience (among emerging
economies, as well as with advanced countries), monitoring and evaluating foresight initiatives
in the CEE/NIS region.
Some of the lessons from the CEE/NIS region can be extended to other emerging economies,
too, especially the importance of a broad understanding of the needs with regard to FTA capacity
building.
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References [selected]
Amanatidou E, Guy K [2008]: Interpreting foresight process impacts: Steps towards the development of a
framework conceptualising the dynamics of ‘foresight systems’, Technological Forecasting & Social Change,
75 (4): 539–557
Cassingena Harper J, Georghiou L [2005]: The targeted and unforeseen impacts of foresight on innovation
policy: the eFORESEE Malta case study, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2 (2):
84-103
Da Costa O, Warnke P, Cagnin C, Scapolo F [2008]: The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from
the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20 (3): 369-387
Georghiou L et al. (eds) [2008]: The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice, Cheltenham:
Edward Elgar
Havas A [2003]: Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition Economy, Journal of Forecasting, 22 (2-3):
179-201
Klusacek K [2004]: Technology Foresight in the Czech Republic, IJFIP, 1 (1-2): 89-105
Stanovnik P, Bavec C [2010]: Some policy implications from technology foresight in Slovenia, Maintenance
Problems - Problemy Eksploatacji, No. 3, pp. 79-93
Strategic Foresight, a special issue of Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77 (9)
ERAWATCH and TrendChart country reports
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ForWiki-A Tool for Building Foresight Capabilities
in Enterprise 2.0 Driven Organisations
Adrian Curaj, Dan Grosu
Executive Agency for Higher Education
Abstract
An Enterprise 2.0 driven organization uses emergent social software platforms (such as wikis,
blogs, prediction markets, Facebook or Twitter) within and between organizations, developing
new capabilities and producing powerful results. The concept of Enterprise 2.0 is a truly disruptive
innovation, designating an emergent and self-organizing network of relationships which enables
executives to digitize and monetize collaboration. E2.0’s organizational and technology constructs
represent a new approach toward satisfying goals for growth and innovation, where the hope is
that an open exchange of ideas will support business value and personal development. E2.0’s
are highly connected and agile organizations, sensitive in respect to societal trends, concerns
and needs, while still willing to create Foresighting abilities. The paper identifies key concepts
employed in building the Foresight Wiki - a learning support infrastructure designed with the
specific goal of developing Foresight capabilities in Enterprise 2.0 driven organizations – and
states several implications for the platform’s structure and organization. The Foresight Wiki
(or FORwiki) is the Web 2.0 version of the FOR-LEARN Online Foresight Guide, inscribed
within the connectionist paradigm of eLearning 2.0. Moving beyond cognitivist or constructivist
approaches, eLearning 2.0 relies on a self-organizing process which requires that the system
is informationally open and capable of changing its structure. FORwiki offers a platform for
creating communities of shared meanings (in Bakhtinian sense) on fundamental concepts of
Foresight, as well as practices of Foresight. The platform’s content is open-ended, while the
communities’ discourse rests in continuous transformation. The paper uses discourse analysis
techniques in order to systematically explore often opaque relationships of causality between
discursive practices and wider social-cultural structures within the larger Foresight community
of practice. The analysis takes place at two levels: microstructure and macrostructure. At the
microstructure level, the analysis is focused on the semantic relations between the discourse’s
elements, including the rhetorical elements. At a macrostructure level, the analysis is directed at
the thematic/topic structure of stories about Foresight exercises, and overall understandings of
Foresight. The conclusion supported by the authors is that Enterprise 2.0 driven organizations
will trend to connect Foresight units in socio-cognitive spaces of innovation, creating thus
networked structures of FTA.
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Research and Technology Organisation: Applying
Diversified Roadmap Concept at VTT, Finland
Toni Ahlqvist, Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola,
Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto
& Jouko Myllyoja
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
forename.surname[at]vtt.fi
Keywords: systemic transformation, capacity, research and technology organisation (RTO),
anticipatory culture, roadmapping, diversified roadmaps, strategy process.
Introduction
Currently the different organisational and geographical scales of innovation systems are more
interlinked than ever. It means that ramifications of developments and systemic transformations
flow through this meta-system faster than before and these flows have complex effects. Because
of this systemic complexity, the implications are also harder to anticipate. This is why research
and technology organisations (RTOs), as key nodes in the meta-system, should develop at least
two systemic capacities: 1) partial structural openness and fluidity that endorse rapid alterations
in the organisational structures enabling flexibility in responding to the systemic flows, and 2)
horizontal and pervasive anticipatory culture that in a networked fashion integrates the critical
knowledge in a RTO to reflexively construct its future ‘mission’ and internal future-oriented
agency, i.e. proactive and bottom-up participatory approach which leads to action.
Methodology
In this paper we explore the questions of systemic transformations and the building of anticipatory
culture in the context of a Finnish RTO, namely VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.
Firstly, we discuss VTT’s internal R&D approach that emphasises the so-called parallel innovation
process. In the present model, the function of foresight is to be the first step when entering this
process. We suggest a change in this thinking by transforming the foresight into a horizontal
organisational function that permeates all levels of the parallel innovation process. Secondly, we
propose that principles of technology roadmapping could be applied in building the two above
mentioned strategic capacities and constructing the horizontal foresight function inside a RTO.
We present a diversified roadmap concept that adapts the basic principles of traditional
technology roadmapping and widens its horizon towards such directions as visionary strategic
management, network building and development, and organisational learning and adaptation.
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Thirdly, we exemplify these diversified roadmapping concepts by analysing two VTT case
studies: Sercive Science Business (SSB) Network roadmapping process and Building Service
roadmapping process. The case studies have two aims: 1) to present and assess the diversified
roadmap method and 2) to evaluate roadmapping as a catalyst of systemic changes in a RTO.
The case studies will reflect on the questions of how to build a required level of systemic
openness and stimulate the construction of horizontal anticipatory culture in a RTO. Thus our
results will be threefold: Firstly, the paper provides paths to enable anticipatory culture in RTOs
and other organisations. Secondly, the paper widens the scope of roadmapping towards the field
of organisational development and visionary planning. Thirdly, the paper presents a diversified
roadmap model that can be applied in specific organisational settings. The key issue from the policy
perspective is that the generic ideas of this paper can be utilised also in several policy fields.
Conclusions
Constructing systemic transformation capacities in organisations requires challenging
organisational capacities: the capacity for structural openness and capacity for anticipatory
culture. These capacities are dependent on the organisational tradition - this is why it is important
to realise that foresight sensibility also requires contextual historical understanding.
References (selected)
Ahlqvist, T., Bäck, A., Heinonen, S. & Halonen, M. (2010). Road-mapping the societal transformation potential
of social media. Foresight 12:5, 3–26.
Ahlqvist, T., H. Carlsen, J. Iversen, & E. Kristiansen. (2007). Nordic ICT foresight. Futures of the ICT
environment and applications on the Nordic level. VTT Publications 653. Edita Prima Oy, Helsinki.
Blackwell, A.F., Phaal, R., Eppler, M. & Crilly, N. (2008). Strategy roadmaps: new forms, new practices. In
Stapleton, G., Howse, J. and Lee, J. (Eds.). Diagrams 2008. Springer-Verlag, Berlin/Heidelberg,127–140.
Farrukh, C., Phaal, R.D.& Probert, R. (2003). Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources into
business planning. International Journal of Technology Management 26: 12–19.
Kostoff, R.N. & Schaller, R.R. (2001). Science and technology roadmaps. IEEE Transactions on Engineering
Kostoff, R.N., Boylan, R. & Simons, G.R. (2004). Disruptive technology roadmaps. Technological Forecasting
& Social Change 71:2, 141–59.
Könnölä, T., Ahlqvist, T., Eerola, A., Kivisaari, S. & Koivisto, R. (2009). Management of foresight portfolio:
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technological Analysis & Strategic
Lee, S., & Y. Park. (2005). Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes:
overall process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72: 567–583.
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Evaluating Local Public Foresight Studies from a
User Perspective
Nicole Rijkens – Klomp*, Patrick van der Duin**
*ICIS University of Maastricht, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD, Maastricht,
The Netherlands, [email protected]
**Delft University of technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX, Delft,
The Netherlands, [email protected]
Keywords: foresight, user perspective, strategic policy-making.
Introduction
This paper deals with the opinions and experiences of local Dutch and Belgian policymakers
in applying foresight methods in the context of strategic policy processes. The added value
of foresight methods will be described in light of the different goals and intentions employed
when opting for different foresight methods. For this, a distinction will be made between
different phases of the policy cycle, i.e., agenda-setting, policy preparation, decision-making,
implementation, and evaluation. Special attention will be paid to factors, levers, and barriers
commonly perceived to be of influence to the added value of foresight methods.
In most evaluative studies on foresight the added value has been addressed from a supply
driven point of view. With supply, we mean the producers of studies of the future, that is, the
futures researchers. In this paper, however, evaluation will take place from a demand driven
perspective. In other words, the user perspective – i.e. that of policymakers who have applied
foresight methods such as scenario analysis in policymaking – will take centre stage. We
will contextualise our findings on a local level further by relating them to results from studies
focussing on the national level.
Methodology
The insights presented in this paper are based on recent policy document analyses, in depth
interviews, and questionnaire research with users in the policy domain which have been
conducted to build empirical evidence. Policymakers have been asked to reflect upon how they
perceived the use of foresight methods. In our research, we focussed on policymakers working
in local governmental organisations who made use of future exploration methods for the first
time on the one hand, or had an experience of some years with applying foresight methods on
the other hand.
Theme 2e: Evaluation And Impacts
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Results
The added value of using the foresight method as experienced by policymakers on a local
level, manifests itself in process-related and content-related forms of impact with an emphasis
on process-related forms of impact. Policymakers indicated, for example, that they perceived
the cross-sectoral way of working as one of the main process-related benefits of using
foresight methods gained. It appears that a cross-sectoral way of working is unlikely to be
taken for granted within a governmental organisation. Furthermore, foresight exercises have
been experienced as mutual learning processes, allowing participants (i.e. policymakers)
to gain a better understanding of each other’s perspectives on the future, thereby laying a
common basis for developing policies.
Content-related benefits have also been indicated. Policymakers indicated that foresight
methods stimulate them to take future developments and changes into account in a structured
way. When foresight methods are not used and strategic policies need to be developed,
future-related assumptions are made in an intuitive and rather opaque way. Consequently,
all too often they are merely based on personal assumptions. Through the use of more
systematic (foresight) methods, policymakers are forced to be transparent and explicit about
assumptions underlying their policies and to consider all relevant factors or developments.
Foresight methods are felt to stimulate the user to develop strategic policies in a more rational
way. Foresight exercises brought new insights to the fore, new perspectives on societal issues,
mainly in terms of raising awareness. Finally, policymakers indicated that foresight methods
have been used in a suboptimal fashion. In retrospect, they felt that insights of studies of the
future could find a better embedding and stronger interweaving with ongoing processes of
policy development.
Conclusions
In the retrospective scans it has been explored why foresight methods are being used in a
suboptimal fashion by exploring which levers and barriers were encountered by policymakers
who were involved in the in-depth interviews. The experiences learn that the success of a
future study as experienced by users mainly depends on process-related and organisational
internal levers and barriers. Factors such as the timing of a future analysis in a strategic policy
process, leadership and trust, and governmental commitment of the study came to the fore.
Also, the embedding and securing of the body of thought related to future thinking and acting
was encountered as a relevant success factor. Furthermore, the availability of knowledge in
the organisation with regard to foresight methods, sources of future related information and
the skills for developing and using future studies, is a crucial factor for the success of the
use of foresight methods. When we compare the findings on a local level with findings from a
study focused on the use of foresight on a national level (Van der Duin, Van Oirschot, Kotey
& Vreeling, 2009) we see, for instance, that on a national level the political dimension of high
importance (e.g., the personal beliefs and demands of a Secretary or Minister can be of great
influence on the type and use of study of the future), that the level of expertise with regard
to foresight is often higher, and that thinking and acting integrally is easier for governmental
officials on a national level.
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The experiences highlighted in this paper illustrate that it is not self-evident for local
governmental organisations to use future methods in an optimal way. The analysis illustrates
that when a governmental organisation decides to use foresight methods, they experience it
as a big step, often even a step of transformation of the organisational culture, a new way of
thinking and acting throughout the organisation. Routines in strategic policy processes do not
always match with the characteristics of foresight methods.
References
Duin, P.A. van der, R. van Oirschot, H. Kotey & E. Vreeling (2009). To govern is to foresee. An exploratory
study into the relationship between futures research and strategy and policy processes at Dutch Ministries,
Futures, Vol.41,pp.607-618.
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Evaluating Future Technology Assessment –
Canadian Case Study
Jonathan Calof
Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, [email protected]
Keywords: Evaluating technology assessment, technical intelligence.
Introduction
The National Research Council (Canada) established a cross Canada unit whose job was
to provide Future Oriented Technology Assessment to assist with government technology
policies and funding programs. While termed a CTI (competitive technical intelligence) unit, the
methodology and subject matter clearly is technology assessment and the analytical techniques
are consistent with those found in the FTA literature. Similar to many such organizations around
the world (for example Forfas and UK Foresight office), the projects addressed by the unit cover
short, medium and long term orientations and range from simple patent reviews to complex
foresight methods. The overall objective of the study was to develop a methodology that could
be used to assess the performance of organizations engaged in future oriented technology
assistance. Fitting with current definitions of foresight found in EFMN, the focus of this unit was
to develop shared long term visions which would be used to assist with shorter term decisions.
Methodology
To identify how the process could be evaluated, the researcher conducted a literature review
on foresight benefits and evaluation, consulting, library and competitive intelligence. The review
led to the development of a preliminary evaluation model and an interview guide to be used on
the unit’s clients as means of assessing the technology assessments impact and how they felt
it could be measured. Five of the organizations offices were selected for interviews. The study
authors then selected the clients they wanted to talk too based on which clients had used the
most projects as they would be most familiar with the technology assessment benefits – in a
sense an expert group. In all interviews were held with 15 clients. After each set of interviews,
the clients where then sent an updated list of technology assessment benefits. This list was
modified based on the input from each of the interviews. The modified questionnaire was then
brought to the next office and the same process was used. The final revised questionnaire was
then sent to all the participants in the study for a final revision. Clients were asked to indicate if
the list accurately reflected the benefits they had received and if other benefits had arisen that
were not indicated on the list.
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Consistent with past literature participants indicated that financial and other hard measures would
be difficult, if not impossible to do. The only measure that could be used would be a perceptual
measure (subjective questions about whether the client had received the benefit). The reason
for this lay with the complexity of the client decision making process and also the existence of
significant amount of indirect benefits. For example a technology assessment used for policy
development was also integrated in a speech the client made to an industry association and an
interview conducted with a national news network that resulted in the assessment being used by
many other companies and government agencies. The indirect benefit would be very difficult to
measure. Based on the comprehensive literature review and discussions with the client as well
as senior organizational personnel two models were developed, one for evaluating the service
and the other for identifying critical success factors involved in getting impactful technology
assessment. In terms of the evaluation model, six areas of performance measurement were
identified with measures suggested for each: 1) Organization performance: How well is he
organization doing in their FTA program? How well is it developing (this is a general area of
measurement for the entire organization) and can include productivity measures, efficiency
measures and so forth 2) Individual performance: Are the FTA officers doing their job well.
There are standard skills sets that have been identified with foresight – to what extent do the
individuals possess these skills? 3) Project/process performance: Is the FTA process being
conducted appropriately. Both foresight and intelligence have well developed methodologies
that need to be followed for proper projects to be conducted. In intelligence for example, there
are planning, gathering, assessment, communication and management methodologies that can
be examined. In an assessment of their unit, a well known CTI expert examined NRC CTI project
plans and assessed whether he would have conducted the project in the same way. 4) Output
performance: What is the quality of the intelligence output itself. This is more standard consulting
type measures such as quality of the materials, client satisfaction, word of mouth support by the
client groups etc. 5) Impact performance: What direct and intended impact did the technology
assessment have. Foresight is supposed to lead to actionable decisions, did this arise? The
study found dozens of foresight and CTI impacts that can be measured. 6) Secondary impact
performance: What indirect unanticipated impacts arose from the FTA reports. This is similar to
#5 and recognizes that the foresight study can have impact well beyond the initial intent of the
project. For example, other stakeholders may read the report, relationships can be established
that are used in subsequent projects. Finally, in the area of predicting technology assessment
success, the model developed suggests that providing project guidelines are followed and
officers have the appropriate skills, the major predicted of success lies with the client themselves
and their knowledge and receptivity for technology assessment recommendations.
Selected References
Barre, Remi and Michael Keenan. 2006. Evaluation, Impact and Learning. Seville FTA conference, September
2006.
Bouthillier, France and Jonathan Calof (2009), Assessing the impact of CI: A conceptual model for evaluating
technical marketing intelligence. Working Paper, University of Ottawa, Telfer School of Management
Calof, Jonathan L and Jack Smith, Critical Success Factors for Government Led Foresight. 3rd International
Seville Conference on Future Oriented Technology, October 2008.
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Blenkhorn, D. L., & Fleisher, C. S. (2007). Performance Assessment in Competitive Intelligence: An Exploration,
Synthesis, and Research Agenda. Journal of Competitive Intelligence and Management, 4(2), 4-22.
Global Intelligence Alliance. (2004). Measuring the Benefits of Competitive Intelligence. GIA White Paper
3/2004.
Ittner, C. D., & Larcker, D. F. (2003). Coming Up Short on Nonfinancial Performance Measurement. Harvard
Business Review, 81(11), 88-95.
Lönnqvist, A., & Pirttimäki, V. (2006). The Measurement of Business Intelligence. Information Systems
Management, 23(1), 32-40.
Luke Georghiou and Michael Keenan. 2004. Towards a Typology for Evaluating Foresight Exercises. Seville
FTA conference, September 2004
McGonagle, J. J., & Vella, C. M. (2002). Bottom Line Competitive Intelligence. Westport, CT: Quorum
Books.
Miltos Ladikas and Michael Decker. 2004. Assessing the Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Assessment,
Seville FTA conference, September 2004.
Simon, Neil J. 1998. Determing Measures of Success. Competitive Intelligence
Magazine, Sept. 1998, Vol 1. No 2, p. 45-48.
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Exploring the Impact of FLA on National Innovation
Systems
Matthias Weber,* Attila Havas,** Doris Schartinger*
* AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria
** Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budaorsi ut 45.,
H-1112 Budapest, HUNGARY
e-mail for correspondence: [email protected]
Keywords: Forward-Looking Activities (FLAs); policy governance sub-systems (PGS); national
innovation systems (NIS); fit between a chosen FLA approach, the perceived policy needs/
opportunities, and the PGS; impacts of FLA.
Introduction
In spite of several decades of using Forward-Looking Activities (FLAs) in the context of science,
technology and innovation (STI) policies, our knowledge of the actual impacts of FLAs on
national innovation systems (NIS) is still very limited and based on case-by-case evidence –
mainly evaluation reports or case descriptions – rather than systematic comparative analyses.
One of the reasons for this knowledge gap can be found in the great diversity of FLA in
methodological terms. What further stresses the challenge of anticipation is that the “objects”
to which FLAs are applied are complex in nature. This is reflected in the innovation system
(IS) approach that has come to dominate our current thinking about STI policies and system
performance.
For the purpose of investigating impacts of FLAs on ISs, the conventional actor-centred IS
approach shows a number of limitations, particularly with regard to governance cultures.
Looking into complementary lines of reasoning for better capturing possible impact chains is
thus a potentially fruitful inroad to follow. Against this background this paper offers an analytical
framework to study the impacts of different types of FLAs on different types of innovation
systems and in particular their sub-systems of governance. The applicability of this framework
will be illustrated by comparing actual cases.
Methodology
The paper relies on various theoretical building blocks of evolutionary economics of innovation,
as well as on political sciences, most notably on the policy governance literature. While we
believe that our approach can be extended beyond national ISs (e.g. sectoral, regional, etc.), we
concentrate on the national level in order to limit the complexity of our analyses.
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First we develop a tentative typology of FLAs, covering different dimensions such as rationale
(reinforce the existing NIS and/ or its sub-systems vs. transform it/ them); degree and types
of participation; as well as its relation to other policy preparation tools (stand alone vs.
embedded).
Second, we deepen the national innovation systems perspective, by zooming into the change
processes, especially at the level of policy governance sub-systems (PGSs). We apply four
dimensions to characterise an actual PGS: oligopolistic –distributed structure; antagonistic–
consensual strategy setting processes; degree and type of legitimisation (process and/or output
legitimacy); systematic vs. sparse, ad hoc use of policy preparation tools (PPTs).
Results and policy impact/ implications
Our framework contributes to identifying which types of FLAs are suitable under which
circumstances. The combination of a typology of FLAs and a focussed view on national
innovation systems in characterising PGSs provides us with an analytical framework to
systematically compare specific NIS-centred FLAs and their impacts. We will refer to different
countries in order to illustrate the relevance of our framework. These countries are rather diverse
on purpose, and include Columbia, France, Germany, Hungary, Japan, and Romania. The
application of our framework leads to two strands of observations: First, observations are made
that refer to the internal correlations between the different dimensions of FLAs (e.g. between its
rationale and the degree of participation) and PGS (e.g. between consensual/antagonistic and
systematic/sparse use of PPTs). Secondly, we develop observations how different dimensions
of FLAs correlate with different dimensions of PGS (e.g. between oligopolistic/distributed PGS
and rationale of FLA).
Conclusions
This type of analysis, applied thoroughly and honestly, will lead to well-substantiated policy
conclusions on the appropriateness of different types of FLAs for different kinds of governance
cultures, and for improving certain “functions” of innovation systems by way of FLAs. The major
question is the fit between a chosen FLA, the perceived policy needs/ opportunities, and the
policy governance sub-system. The closer the fit, the higher/ more favourable impacts of FLAs
can be expected (assuming an appropriate quality and methodological rigour of conducting
FLAs). Yet, it would be a mistake to presuppose linear (sequential) links among these “elements”
of a needed fit, as they interact in several ways. First, an often neglected impact of FLAs is that
the understanding of the originally targeted policy needs/ options would need to be revised, and
new policy needs/ options are likely to be identified. Second, FLAs would impact on the policy
governance sub-system itself: a non-participatory FLA would reinforce the “closeness” of a PGS
(its reliance on expert-based approaches), while a participatory FLA would open up a “closed”,
hierarchical PGS in a longer run, and with ensuing tensions, of course. Analysts and decisionmakers also need to ask themselves a broader question when a lack of “fit” between the above
three elements is observed: is it a mistake in policy design or is it designed on purpose (that is,
to run a transformative FLA)?
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Towards Impactful Foresight: Advise from the
Advisors
Jonathan Calof*, Michael Jackson**, Riel Miller***
*Associate Professor Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, [email protected]
**Chairman and Founder, Shaping Tomorrow, [email protected]
***President XperidoX: Futures Consulting, [email protected]
Keywords: Foresight success.
Introduction
As the Seville FTA 2011 conference call for papers states, “FTA offers policy and decision
makers the potential to look across such transformations, enabling governments and other
organizations to become more adaptive and capable of enacting systemic change The authors/
presenters of this paper have combined experience of over 80 years in technology foresight
and related areas in academic study, capacity development seminars and project execution.
They have seen rapid growth in foresight both within industry and government. For example,
today in Canada at the Federal level, several departments have formed foresight units and
it has become in many cases a requirement for policy development. Similarly in Canada at
the industry level, a foresight program done in Newfoundland and Labrador which brought
together some 75% of the industry participants in Oceans Industries including government,
industry and academe has already resulted in a doubling of industry sales. At the same time,
the authors have witnessed the demise of other foresight units, projects that resulted in no
impact, and significant downsizing in foresight resources. Some of these projects have had
impact and some that have not. This presentation/paper focuses on providing policy makers,
academics, consultants and others involved in foresight key lessons learned for building FTA
capacities for systematic and structural transformation . How has and how can FTA provide
support to decision making. Through numerous case study reports which the authors have
been part of, a panel/paper will be presented which explores: methods for evaluating the
effectiveness of FTA (from a recent study of the National Research Council), the role of private
sector consultants and other organizations for enhancing, supporting and helping to develop
FTA capacity, and a look at some of the organizational forms of FTA that have led to FTA
success and failure. In short, the three authors will share their experiences with conference
participants on factors important to foresight success. Dr. Calof has been instrumental in
several countries Foresight Programs, Dr. Jackson through Shapingtomorrow has one of the
largest foresight online advisory services in the world serving both private and public sector
foresight programs, and Riel Miller is one of the foremost foresight consultants, serving as a
chief adviser to dozens of government agencies.
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The following provides selected tips from the authors based on past experience.
From Riel Miller:
Understand first of all that the challenge is to “use the future” to think about choices in the
present, not to find the future to serve as a target.
Understand second of all that the use of the future is inscribed in an anticipatory system and
that you need to think about the nature and attributes, purpose and functioning of the particular
anticipatory system that is pertinent to your context.
When conducting an exploratory foresight exercise aimed at embracing complexity refrain from
probabilistic and causal logics.
Make sure to pay careful attention to ensuring a congruence between the process and outcomes
in the design of the process. Do not forget that in a foresight exercise there is always a key
deliverable related to “process as product”.
From Michael Jackson:
Shaping tomorrow has devised a test to evaluate foresight current and desired capacity for the
development of world class foresight:
Leadership. Helping organizations to translate foresight into action...on an on-going basis.
Framing. Helping the organization identify and solve the right problems.
Scanning. Helping organizations to understand what’s going on in its immediate environment
and in the world at large.
Forecasting. Helping organizations consider a range of future possibilities.
Visioning. Helping organizations decide what they want in the future.
Planning. Helping people develop plans, people, skills, and processes that support the
organization’s vision.
Dr. Jackson has found common traits across future thinking, innovative, risk aware organizations
including:
Strategically and simultaneously focusing on innovation and risk.
Systematically gathering precursory insight of changes happening in the world around them.
Sensing and adjusting to emerging change.
Collaborating and partnering far beyond traditional commercial boundaries.
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Using simple, quick processes to reduce cycle times.
Measuring and rewarding on a few vital organizational-level metrics.
From Jonathan Calof
Providing that those that are running the foresight projects are properly trained and the project
is appropriately planed and budgeted, my experience and research has found that foresight
success and impact starts with an educated client. Senior decision makers need to understand
the role and benefits of foresight, trust those developing it, and be part of a supportive culture.
Following this, several critical success factors have been seen in past work including: being
client and policy focused and most importantly recognizing the need to make recommendations
that are actionable in today’s policy time horizon. This last point has been made within several
foresight units. This is where the European Commission definition of foresight: “a participative
approach to creating shared long-term visions to inform short-term decision-making
process”. To do this requires good understanding and direct links to senior decision makers;
clear communications strategy; and strong links with external experts and stakeholders.
.
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Navigating FTA in a Sea of Expectations
Harro van Lente
Innovation Studies, University Utrecht
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development
PO Box 80115, Utrecht, The Netherlands
[email protected]
Keywords: expectations, technology roadmapping, sociology of expectations, policy, foresight
Introduction
This paper conceptually and empirically investigates the phenomenon that socio-technical
developments are saturated with formal and informal anticipations and discusses the implications
for Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. The central argument is that FTA exercises, as formal
articulations of possible futures, are the product of practices that that draw on a broader repertoire
of visions and future assessments. Within practices of engineering, strategy formulation and
policy making, expectations circulate and are forceful in various ways. Therefore, we should
investigate this condition in detail and discuss the implications for the institutionalization of
FTA. This paper addresses the theme “Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural
transformations” in particular the topics of “embedding of different forms of FTA in the public
sector and implementing FTA results into policy and decision making” and “FTA as a source of
legitimacy”.
Methodology
The paper employs two methods. First, it investigates the relevant literature on expectations to
unravel the position of FTA in the ‘sea of expectations’. In particular two sets of literature are
relevant. First, the sociology of expectations, which investigates how expectations are part and
parcel of the practices of science and technology. A second set of literature and experience is the
tradition of technological road mapping, which is more design oriented. It has its roots in studies
of business strategies, but the last decade it is increasingly popular amongst governments as
well. The idea is to seek creative linkages between technological skills, sequences of products
and foreseen markets.
The second method is a review of two cases from the Dutch context of FTA practices, one
within the Ministry of Environment (2002-2007) and one within a semi-public nanotechnology
consortium, NanoNed (2005-2010). I will describe how the FTA researchers were recruited, how
their activities were embedded in ongoing processes of anticipation and how the results of the
FTA exercise derive their significance from the set of informal expectations.
Theme 2f: Expectations And Communication
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From the literature review I conclude that researchers, firms and governments have to operate
in an environment in which expectations about technical possibilities, markets and societal
developments abundantly circulate. The literature describes how collective expectations urge
the stakeholders to act and to position their strategies. Since actors are aware of this situation
–that is, they are reflexive– strategic games occur that may lead to self-fulfilling or self-negating
prophecies.
FTA exercises will inevitably draw on collective expectations and this sets cognitive limits to the
content of the produced futures as well as limits to the political efficacy of FTA as an instrument.
From the two empirical studies I conclude that the limits are to be found in the pertinent (i) images,
(ii) concepts, and (iii) causal chains that colonize the interactions between FTA practitioners
and their environment. In return, the condition of FTA in the sea of expectations enhances the
viability of FTA exercises.
Conclusions
I conclude the paper with a reflection on the implications for the practice and institutionalization of
FTA. The ongoing circulation of informal assessments enables and constrains the possibilities of
FTA exercises in a particular way. To enhance the alignment of formal and informal expectations
makes FTA socially more robust, but cognitively more vulnerable. How can it raise salience
and how does it hamper its efficacy? A fruitful way to make use of the condition of ongoing
anticipation is to make this condition more explicit, while not forgetting the political aim of the
exercise. In other words: in order to navigate FTA in the sea of expectations we need both clear
sight on the sea as well as a compass.
References
Van Lente, H. and S. Bakker (2010), ‘Competing expectations: the case of hydrogen storage technologies’,
Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. Vol 22 (6), 693-709.
Rinne, M. (2004), Technology roadmaps: Infrastructure for innovation, Technological Forecasting and Social
Change, Volume 71, Issues 1-2, January-February 2004, Pages 67-80.
Bakker, S, H. van Lente and M. Meeus (2011), ‘Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies’,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol 78(1), 152-162.
Van Lente, H. (2010) ‘Supporting and evaluating emerging technologies: a review of approaches’, Int. J.
Technology, Policy and Management, Vol. 10, No. 1/2, pp.104-115.
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The Challenges of Communicating the Foresight
Study Outcomes to Better Advise Decision Makers
in Policy and Strategy Matters
Claudio Chauke Nehme1,2, Marcio de Miranda Santos1,
Lelio Fellows Filho1, Gilda Massari Coelho1
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
1 - Center for Strategic Studies and Management - CGEE; 2 - Catholic University of Brasilia
Keywords: Foresight; Decision-making; Strategic intelligence; Communication; Mindset
transformation.
Introduction
This paper addresses the challenges of communicating the results of foresight processes to
decision makers in a way that truly supports their decisions with confidence and credibility.
There are several difficulties often embedded in foresight recommendations regarding the
relations between a particular innovation system and the complex and uncertain world. The
knowledge about the whole line of reasoning of those in power to shape decisions and the
quality of the information that supports these are critical to enable change and positive impact.
Therefore, a foresight practitioner must be prepared to design foresight exercises with macro
processes of collective intelligence that are able to involve their clients from beginning to end of
the overall process, taking care to clarify and bring into the light existing bias and, on the other
hand, to promote commitment. This consideration has been in the backbone of the Center for
Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), which has been acquired through more than 400
foresight studies developed over the course of the past 9 years. The methodological approach
employed by CGEE in this regard contains some vital elements.
Methodology
First of all, stakeholders must be involved in a foresight exercise from the very beginning. They
have to feel comfortable and self-confident regarding the foresight exercise and its subsequent
recommendation. This specific part is associated to definition of main objectives. Usually, at this
point, CGEE’s purpose is to hear, interpret and comprehend the client’s necessities, desires and
worries. CGEE’s task in this context is to help to describe the main objectives and strategic goals
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taking into consideration several possibilities, opportunities and different perspectives to foresee
the client’s preliminary intentions and then suggest some proposals. The second remarkable
characteristic of CGEE’s Methodological Approach of introducing collective intelligence
processes is foresight exercise planning. This activity deals with the design of the foresight
exercise trying to show, in an anticipatory manner, the whole process and the most important
points that have potential to introduce innovation and what requires mind-set revisions.
As a result, the paper presents CGEE’s lessons learned in this period and its relation to improved
support to policy options and their implications To this end, the case study developed for FINEP’s
strategic foresight - the Brazilian Innovation Agency - will be discussed. The main objective was
to support the configuration of a new management model for the agency that would assure,
for the next fifteen years, its position as the main public funding and promotion agency and
inductor of national development based on innovation. The methodological approach used by
CGEE assured, through the participatory process, the commitment of an expressive contingent
of internal and external stakeholders, not only with the process, but also – and mainly – with its
continuity.
Conclusions
This paper is concluded by means of exemplifications in three types of decision makers from:
government; corporate; and academia. These groups differ in the following aspects:
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•
Preparation and delivery timing vary substantially among government, corporate and
academia clients: It is important to be aware and respect their timing.
•
Foresight exercises are usually exposed to some dangerous traps or milestones
along their applications. In order to avoid these situations, it is important to note some
characteristics related to each group:
o
Government representatives frequently start making decisions before
interpreting what was obtained in the first phase (information and data
gathering), as discussed before.
o
Corporate executives may have difficulties thinking beyond their business.
Foresight exercises and innovation strategies are interconnected and it is
important to stress the possible influence and impacts from other business
segments.
o
Academia often has difficulties thinking beyond disciplinary structures. Due
to a long disciplinary tradition of research and learning in the academic
world, when foresight exercises and innovation strategies are applied to
new future possibilities in academia, they demand huge efforts of mindset
revision and transformation.
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References
Hames, R. D. 2010. New Windows Onto New Worlds: The Case for Integral Foresight. Paper presented at
Foresight International Seminar: From Theory to Practice, 16-17 December, Brasilia, Brazil.
Johnston, R. 2010. Methods and tools for breaking mindsets and bringing new perspectives to the table.
Paper presented at Foresight International Seminar: From Theory to Practice, 16-17 December, Brasilia,
Brazil.
Loveridge, D. 2009. Foresight: the art and science of anticipating the future. New York: Routledge.
Martin, B. R. 2010. The origins of the concept of foresight in science and technology: an insider’s perspective.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, no. 77: 1438-47.
Popper, R. 2008. Foresight methodology. In: The handbook of technology foresight: concepts and practice,
ed. L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles and R. Popper. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
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Foresight as an Innovation Policy Tool in Smaller
Catching-up Economies: Grand Narratives or
Intelligent Piggybacking?
Marek Tiits,
Institute of Baltic Studies, [email protected]
Tarmo Kalvet,
Tallinn University of Technology, [email protected]
with contributions from Rene Tõnnisson, Institute of Baltic Studies
Keywords: foresight, small economies, catching-up economies, techno-economic paradigms,
ICT
Introduction
Following the example of Western Europe and many other developed economies, the 2000s saw
a rise in the popularity of foresight practices in the smaller catching-up economies of Central and
Eastern Europe. However, these foresight exercises have not always had an impact on actual
policy processes.
The paper raises several methodological issues related to foresight practices in smaller
catching-up countries. Two case studies are used to examine the role and impact of recent
technology foresight exercises on Estonia’s public policy and to draw lessons from them: (1) the
pilot foresight action in the fields of ICTs, biotechnology and nanotechnology within the EU FP6
eForesee project (Tiits et al 2005) and (2) the more recent EST_IT@2018 foresight exercise
undertaken by the Estonian Development Fund (Tiits & Rebane 2009).
Methodological issues
Recent foresight literature and practice has treated all economies as largely the same, and
has focussed mainly on different foresight methodologies and on the results. Contrastingly,
economics literature distinguishes between advanced economies that operate at the cutting
edge of the development of new technologies, and catching-up economies that are still striving to
reach the technological and living standards of the advanced economies. This means, however,
that sources of technological learning, innovation and economic development are very different
in these two groups of economies. Furthermore, the smallness of an economy adds an extra
layer of innovation-related complexities in the current globalised world (Kattel et al 2010).
Recent technology foresight activities in Europe have built on an approach that can be termed
‘Grand Narrative’ - foresight exercises, which aim at defining the possible future development
scenarios or trajectories at the cutting edge of a given field of technology. While this approach
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is a reasonable choice for major industrialized economies, its feasibility for smaller catching-up
economies is questionable.
We argue that the smaller catching up economies should opt instead for an ‘Intelligent
Piggybacking’ approach to foresight. It is an approach that acknowledges that:
-
the future key technology trends are set by major advanced economies, and it is not
feasible for the smaller catching-up economies to influence these;
-
the future growth in market demand is likely to occur in specific areas where there are
major socio-economic challenges both domestically and globally.
In other words, the central foresight question for smaller catching-up economies should not be
“What are the key technology areas for indigenous technology development”, but rather “How
to restructure and upgrade the existing technological and production capabilities, so that the
country will be able to adopt the latest (imported) technologies in producing high-value-added
exportable goods and services.”
Accordingly, for the successful adoption of the Intelligent Piggybacking approach, it is important
to have a good understanding of the scientific and technological capabilities of the particular
country. It is also important to have a good command of the main externally defined science and
technology trends, and of the country’s position in the global production/innovation networks
and trade.
Results and implications
In the eForesee project a major effort was made to map the R&D priorities of the major
advanced economies in the fields of ICTs, bio- and nanotechnologies. An important conclusion
that emerged was that proper understanding of the economic cycles and techno-economic
paradigms can actually serve as very useful guidance in the foresight and the elaboration of
policy strategies. As part of Intelligent Piggybacking foresight, the sources of Estonia’s recent
economic growth were determined at the level of specific industries. Building on this, as well
as on the historically successful catching-up experiences of Finland, Ireland, East Asia and
elsewhere, three distinctly different policy scenarios were devised, which discussed technology
trends, industry life cycles, flows in foreign direct investments, global market dynamics and the
likely relocation of various industries in time (Tiits et al 2005).
The subsequent EST_IT@2018 took note of the fact that the on-going ICT paradigm continues
to be an extremely powerful driver for productivity growth. Accordingly, in this work, specific
priorities were defined for: (1) the advancement of scientific and technological capabilities, so
that Estonia could command the latest ICTs developed in the major advanced countries and (2)
the development of new ICT-based products and services in the specific domains where major
socio-economic challenges were detected and, in connection with this, also significant growth in
market demand was expected elsewhere.
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Conclusions
Failures in the transfer of policies from one country to another are widely acknowledged. Similar
failures can also occur in the transfer of policy intelligence and policy making tools, such as
foresight. Therefore, critical assessment of the context and the adaption of the methodology
toolbox are very necessary.
The key lesson from the two recent foresight exercises in Estonia is that the traditional
approaches to technology foresight, which are typically employed in larger advanced economies,
are not applicable to smaller catching-up economies. We argue that the Intelligent Piggybacking
approach is much more suitable for those countries than the traditional Grand Narratives
approach. The reason for this is that the smaller catching-up economies rely extensively both
on imported technologies and on export markets. This is why the foresight exercises carried
out in such smaller countries need to be carried out as truly international efforts that secure an
access to the state-of-the-art in frontier R&D, and to the latest strategic thinking in the relevant
global production networks.
References
Kattel, Rainer, Tarmo Kalvet and Tiina Randma-Liiv (2010). Small States and Innovation. In: R. Steinmetz and
A. Wivel (Eds.) Small States in Europe: Challenges and Opportunities. Aldershot: Ashgate.
Tiits, Marek, Rainer Kattel and Tarmo Kalvet (2005) Made in Estonia. Tartu: Institute of Baltic Studies, http://
www.ibs.ee/MiE/.
Tiits, Marek and Kristjan Rebane (2009) Eesti infotehnoloogia tulevikuvaated [Future outlooks of Estonian
ICT], Tallinn: Estonian Development Fund, http://www.arengufond.ee/eng/foresight/estit2018/.
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Theme 3:
Premises and practices in combining quantitative and
qualitative FTA methods
Theme 3: Combining Quantitative And Qualitative Fta Methods
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Theme 3
Premises and practices in combining quantitative and
qualitative FTA methods
The range of different methods and techniques that are applied in the field of FTA keeps growing.
This offers an opportunity for more tailored design of approaches and techniques to fit the context
and purpose of specific endeavours, thus benefiting from each method’s particular strengths. In
particular, the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods has the potential to produce
rounded results, thereby offering policy and other decision makers’ robust information on which
they can base their strategies and decisions.
The development and application of creative combinations of qualitative and quantitative FTA
methods is complex, and requires a good understanding of the epistemological principles
behind each approach and methodological school, its context, units of analysis and processes.
Until today the communities associated with each of these schools – foresight / forecasting
/ technology assessment / futures communities – are perceived as different worlds that are
competing rather than collaborating in looking at the future and trying to understand the present.
An optimal integration of methodologies therefore requires solid theoretical premises as well as
appropriate and ethical practice leading to congruent and valid results and winning the trust of
the users and other stakeholders of FTA.
It is also relevant to identify and make explicit existing good practices which link the growing
need for participation in decision making with the increasing policy demand for evidence-based
options and their expected impacts. Assessing FTA studies on how they fulfil this demand will
also require new ways of evaluating FTA that implement new combinations of techniques, and
that build trust through inclusiveness and transparency.
The combined use of qualitative and quantitative methods can rely on the specialisation and
shortcomings of different methods/tools within the same FTA exercise. In participatory methods
the scientific quality and validity of outcomes is still an issue. In addition, the exclusive use of
such methods can lead to partial views on possible futures, e.g. when relying on qualitative
scenarios in devising technology roadmaps. Quantitative models in turn tend to be challenged
to demonstrate their reliability in terms of data treatment and outcomes. Beyond a certain time
horizon, they tend to lose robustness whereas narrative storylines start to present a higher
credibility. There is an increasing awareness of the need to avoid the risk of partial use or
misuse of available tools. A critical element in the combined use of such methods is the nature
of the interfaces between them, and how these relate to the complementary and contradictory
aspects of the methods used.
Ultimately, for what concerns the selection of the most appropriate combination of methods and
tools when initiating a given FTA exercise, it is often agreed that no optimal, one-size-fits-all
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recipe is applicable. Rather, the choice must take into account context-dependent criteria and
methods that can deal with information of all sorts.
Hence, scientific contributions are sought in the form of papers and practical contributions in
the form of posters highlighting the application of new and creative, systematic and robust
processes, which describe potential or actual results and impacts, as well as policy options.
Contributions to this conference theme should focus on but not be limited to:
– General principles underlying the combination of methods in FTA, in particular:
•
Better understanding of ontological and epistemological positions that practitioners
and theorists of FTA might adopt implicitly or explicitly;
•
Incorporating subjectivity in FTA practices (for instance to reflect individual risk
aversion) while enforcing common ethical principles;
– Methods and evaluation, in particular:
•
Theoretical premises and methodology when different methods are combined;
•
Methodologies and practices for assessing FTA studies that combine methods, and
provision of evaluation as to which method combinations best suit which types of
studies and impacts;
– Analysis of problems and possible solutions in combining qualitative and quantitative
approaches, in particular:
•
In relation to the use of modelling and/or simulation in combination with creative and
participatory approaches dealing with uncertainty and which look at different possible
futures. Contributions can amongst others relate to the extent to which approaches
are complementary or contradictory, to the interfaces between approaches, the
analysis of practical cases;
•
'Compatibilities' and ‘incompatibilities’ in combining quantitative and qualitative
methods in FTA when addressing discontinuities or societal challenges;
– New tools and disciplines entering FTA, in particular:
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•
The use of advanced tools (e.g. Web 2.0) that help process, search, mine, organise,
display, interpret and model data of all sorts. Amongst others this includes layman
and expert opinions (and the scientific quality, validity and optimisation of participatory
governance approaches), forecasting, and ways to reduce risks associated with the
heterogeneity of information sources that feed into FTA.
•
Building capacities in using the appropriate combination of tools which are fit for
purpose, and communication skills required to bridge the quantitative and qualitative
schools
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Karel Haegman, JRC-IPTS European Commission, [email protected]
Fabiana Scapolo, DG-JRC European Commission, [email protected]
Andrea Ricci, ISIS - Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi, [email protected]
Elisabetta Marinelli, JRC-IPTS European Commission, [email protected]
Alexander Sokolov, National Research University Higher School of Economics, [email protected]
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Combination of the Scenario Workshop and Wiki to
Improve the Effectiveness of Consensus Building
Process
Jongmin Han*, Hyun Yim*, Soekho Son*, Jaesin Lee**
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
*Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning, Seoul, Korea
**Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea
Keywords: scenario, wiki, foresight, consensus building, workshop.
Introduction
Scenario workshops are basically meetings that involve discussions among a range of local
actors, with the aim of developing visions and proposals for technological needs and possibilities
in the future[1]. The use of workshops leverages the capabilities of the human mind to process
varied inputs rapidly, to detect patterns amid volumes of information, and to reflect on stored
knowledge and experiences, providing a powerful and effective means of integrating the diverse
viewpoints needed for successful scenario building[2].
For a successful scenario workshop, the environment that all participants can exchange the
information, views, and insights freely should be created. Otherwise, the workshop suffers
from ‘follow the leader’ tendencies and reluctance to discard previously stated opinions. For
the organization or society that had a strict hierarchical culture, creating such a pressure-free
environment is a major factor for the successful scenario building.
It is also important to provide participants with training and information that might be related to
the project. However, participants are generally very busy in doing their jobs so that they do not
have a sufficient time to learn all the necessary knowledge by attending the meetings. In that
sense, wiki can be alternative for participants to absorb the knowledge of topic.
In this paper, we studied the future of media devices (Smartphone, Smart TV, Tablet PC) with
students as a pilot project by combining scenario workshop and wiki. A wiki enables communities
to write documents collaboratively using a simple markup language and a web browser[3]. We
created a collaborative wiki site and used the wiki site to identify drivers of change and to edit
the scenarios.
Methodology
We applied the scenario process based on SRI Intuitive logics approach. The scenario building
process is: 1) identify drivers of change 2) find key uncertainties 3) write the scenarios.
Theme 3a: Combination Of Methods & Systemic Collaboration
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The pilot project progressed with university students. The trainings for the scenario building
and the usage of wiki site were provided in the classroom. Students were very cooperative and
enthusiastic about the scenario building for their grade.
1)
Identify drivers of change
- We provided students with a list of technological and social trends. Each student
suggested drivers of change by STEEP analysis and then discussed to finalize the
drivers on wiki based discussion site. Wiki based discussion site was developed for
debate and suggest their ideas about future drivers of change.
2)
Find key uncertainties
- They evaluated the drivers on two axes, impact against uncertainty in the workshop.
Especially drivers of change evaluated on high impact and high uncertainty were
focused. These entire consensuses building process was conducted on wiki site.
3)
Write the scenarios
- They wrote the draft of scenarios in the workshop. In various scenario logics, 3
scenario logics per each media device were selected. They edited the scenarios
through continuous feedback on the wiki site.
This combined approach can be more productive than scenario workshop alone, when
developing new ideas. This can overcome limitations of scenario workshop since it helps
participants to discuss freely without any pressure and time limit. In particular, the wiki site can
play a primary role in identifying drivers of change and writing the scenarios.
Conclusions
We combined scenario workshop and wiki to develop alternative scenarios for the future
development of media devices. Three scenarios per each media device were generated using
this methodology. This methodology shows advantages over scenario workshop only in that
participants have same opportunities and anonymities to express their opinions freely. Also,
thoughts and ideas of participants can be conveyed clearly on wiki site. However, it should be
emphasized that wiki is only tool. Role of project team is more important than methodology to
carry out a successful foresight project.
References
[1] Street, Penny (1997) Scenario workshops: a participatory approach to sustainable urban living, Futures.
Volume 29, Number 2, March 1997, pp. 139~158
[2] Ralston, Bill and Wilson, Ian (2006) The scenario planning handbook: a practitioner’s guide to developing
and using scenarios to direct strategy in today’s uncertain times, ISBN 0-324-31285-7
[3] Wiki - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki)
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Using the International Futures (IFs) Model for
Scenario Analysis: Combining Quantitative and
Qualitative Methods
Barry B. Hughes, Jonathan D. Moyer*, Dale S. Rothman
University of Denver 80203
*Corresponding Author: [email protected]
Keywords: International Futures, Long-Term Forecasting, Quantitative Modeling, Scenario
Analysis, Quantitative and Qualitative Forecast Methods
Introduction
International Futures (IFs) is a uniquely powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term
future of closely interacting policy-related issues including human development (beyond the
Millennium Development Goals), social change (including instability and risk), and environmental
sustainability. IFs is a large-scale, long-term, integrated global modeling system. It represents
demographic, economic, energy, agricultural, socio-political, and environmental subsystems
for 183 countries interacting in the global system. The central purpose of IFs is to facilitate
exploration of global futures through alternative scenarios. The model is integrated with a large
database for its many foundational data series since 1960. The easy-to-use interface facilitates
data analysis, forecast presentation, and scenario analysis. IFs is freely available to users both
on-line (www.ifs.du.edu) and in downloadable form.
Methodology
IFs is a structure-based, agent-class driven, dynamic modeling system. The demographic
module uses a standard cohort-component representation. The 6-sector economic module
structure is general equilibrium. The socio-political module represents life conditions, traces
basic value/cultural information, and portrays various elements of formal and informal sociopolitical structures and processes.
The system facilitates scenario development and policy analysis via a scenario-tree that
simplifies changes in framing assumptions and agent-class interventions. Scenarios can be
saved for development and refinement over time. The easy-to-use interface also facilitates data
analysis and display of forecasting results.
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IFs is used increasingly widely. It was a core component of a project exploring the New
Economy sponsored by the European Commission in 2001-2003 and served the EC again
in 2009 for a project examining the impact of information and computing technology (ICT) on
sustainability. Forecasts from IFs supported Project 2020 (Mapping the Global Future) of the
National Intelligence Council and also the NIC’s Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.
IFs provided driver forecasts for the fourth Global Environment Outlook of the United Nations
Environment Program.
A generous gift in 2007 established the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at
the University of Denver. The Center’s core project now is a series of volumes called Patterns
of Potential Human Progress, modeled in part after the Human Development Report series,
but forward looking (each includes substantial forecasting tables). The first volume, Reducing
Global Poverty, appeared in late 2008 and Advancing Global Education appeared in late 2009.
Improving Global Health will follow in late 2010 and volumes on global infrastructure and
governance are being prepared.
Conclusions
This paper concludes by providing best-practices approaches to combining qualitative and
quanitative approaches to modelling and forecasting that involve the following: 1) promote
information transparency between all parties regarding underlying assumptions of both
quantitative and qualitative approaches; 2) identify a scenario space that captures the key
uncertainties with the most likely impact on the policy area of interest; and 3) interpret the
quantitative results with a logical and robust qualitative narrative.
References
Cilliers, Jakkie. Barry B Hughes, and Jonathan D Moyer, “African Futures 2050,” Institute for Security Studies,
African Futures Project (2011): 102. www.ifs.du.edu/afp.
Dickson, Janet R., Mohammod T. Irfan, and Barry B. Hughes. 2009. Advancing Global Education. Boulder,
Colorado: Paradigm Publishers and New Delhi, India: Oxford University Press.
Hughes, Barry B. 1980. World Modeling. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books.
Hughes, Barry B. 1997. “Rough Road Ahead: Global Transformations in the 21st Century,” Futures Research
Quarterly 13, No. 2 (Summer): 83-107.
Hughes, Barry B. 1999. International Futures: Choices in the Face of Uncertainty, 3rd ed. Boulder, Co:
Westview Press.
Hughes, Barry B. 1999b. “The International Futures (IFs) Modeling Project,” Simulation and Gaming 30, No.
3 (September, 1999): 304-326.
Hughes, Barry B. 2004b (March). “The International Futures Base Case: Comparison with Other Forecasts,”
prepared for the National Intelligence Council’s Project 2020 and IFs project use. Unpublished working paper
on the IFs web site.
Hughes, Barry B. 2007. “Forecasting Globalization: The Use of International Futures (IFs),” in George
Modelski, Tessaleno Devezas, and William R. Thompson, eds., Globalization as Evolutionary Process:
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Modeling, Simulating, and Forecasting Global Change. London and New York: Routledge (Taylor and
Francis).
Hughes, Barry B. 2007b (December). “Forecasting Global Economic Growth with Endogenous Multifactor
Productivity: The International Futures (IFs) Approach” Unpublished IFs working paper on the IFs website.
Hughes, Barry B., Mohammod T. Irfan, Haider Khan, Krishna B. Kumar, Dale S. Rothman, and José Roberto
Solórzano. 2009. Reducing Global Poverty. Boulder, Colorado: Paradigm Publishers and New Delhi, India:
Oxford University Press.
Hughes, Barry B. and Evan E. Hillebrand. 2006. Exploring and Shaping International Futures. Boulder, CO:
Paradigm Publishers.
Hughes, Barry B. and Peter D. Johnston. 2005. “Sustainable Futures: Building Policy Options into a Scenario
for Development in a Global Knowledge Society,” Futures 37: 813-831.
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Systemic Foresight Methodology
Ozcan Saritas
[email protected]
Research Fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIOIR) Oxford Road M13 9PL
Manchester, UK
Keywords: Systems Thinking, Systemic Foresight, Foresight, Methodology, Methods
Introduction
As an unavoidable human trait of thinking about the future, foresight has existed since the
existence of the first human being on earth. The use of individual foresight in a collective
and participative way, however, is a rather new phenomenon, which led to today‘s formal,
Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). More recently FTA has been a widely acclaimed
activity associated with policy making by government, industry and other organisations to
shape the society’s future. As the complexity of societies has increased, the scope of FTA
activities has widened to cover a wide variety of issues. This has been mainly due to the
increasing importance of technological and organisational innovation; the development of
service economies; and other developments such as rapid globalisation, and changing nature
of demographical structures, cultural practices, environmental affairs and social services.
Although, it is observed that the nature of the situations has changed and has become more
complex and uncertain, the way FTA deals with them has remained largely unchanged.
‘Systematic’ processes were designed with pre-determined methods to tackle ‘systemic’
situations involved in human and social systems, which are ‘open’ in nature and require
customised methodological approaches. Consequently, a need has occurred to improve
the FTA practice to tackle these new situations, which require creativity and diversity in the
use of FTA methods. Any new FTA approach in this regard should aim for understanding
these complex systems and their behaviours, and thus needs to be ‘systemic’ and context
dependent.
Methodology
This paper introduces the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) as a way to cope better
with the complexities of the human and social systems and to develop a more tailored FTA
methodology with the integration of qualitative and quantitative FTA tools in line the nature of
situations. The SFM sets out to create systemic concepts that are useable for future-oriented
idea creation in complex human and social systems. It considers the Foresight activity as
a ‘systemic inquiry’ where the actual design of the system can only be partially specified in
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advance of system operation. This is because, when human and social systems are dealt with,
the most thoughtful and carefully designed systems may have unintended consequences.
System behaviour and informal structure emerge only through system operation regardless
of the detail or diligence in design efforts prior to system deployment. The over-specification
of a system’s requirements (i) wastes limited resources, (ii) reduces system autonomy, which
means the agility and flexibility of the system to respond to environmental shifts are reduced,
and (iii) fails to permit subsystem elements to self-organise based on their contextual
knowledge, understanding and proximity to the operating environment.
The SFM sees the design of an institutional Foresight activity as a creative process that will
be engaged in designing a future system to fulfil goals and expectations. Therefore, the SFM
specifies only the minimal requirements necessary to achieve the systems objectives. Thus,
the SFM suggests a learning system, which structures a systems-based debate to formulate
the basic ‘mental acts’ of (i) Systemic understanding, (ii) Systems synthesis and modelling,
(iii) Systemic analysis and selection, (iv) Systemic transformation, and (v) Systemic action
Each of these steps aims at guiding Foresight practitioners to set their agendas for the different
phases of the Foresight activity and to give direction to their thinking processes. The benefits
of this approach lies in its systemic guiding (1) to the design of a Foresight methodology,
which fits well with the context and content of the exercise, and thus (2) to decision making
involved in thinking about the future and connecting the future with the present.
The mental acts explain how systems such as human and social systems, industrial and
sectoral systems, and innovation systems are understood, approached and intervened for a
successful change process. They follow each other, as the steps of the Foresight process, but
they are iterative and can be repeated as many times until the practitioners believe that their
complete function has been fulfilled.
Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of thought experiments, which is about
how systems are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme.
Therefore, SFM does not attempt to impose any methods from the earlier phases of the systemic
inquiry. Rather, a set of thought experiments are suggested to provide an epistemological
framework for the construction of an evolutionary Foresight methodology, which involves:
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1.
Information to understand complex interactions between products, services, users
and other stakeholders in multiple contexts in which these products and services are
used
2.
Intelligence through scanning to explore novel ideas, unexpected issues and shocks,
as well as persistent problems or trends
3.
Imagination in a holistic innovation ecosystem by integrating Foresight, Creativity
and Design for scientifically possible, technologically feasible and socially desirable
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4.
Interaction with the systematic involvement of stakeholders in an inclusive process
with long-term perspective for the analysis of different perspectives and their social
relations in the system,
and finally with an effective Implementation for a successful transformation programme.
Conclusions
The SFM described in this paper provides theoretical and conceptual frameworks for the design
of a methodology with the selection and integration appropriate mixture of FTA methods. The
approach will be demonstrated with a case study on the future of Renewable Energies.
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Rethinking the Expertise of Experts in Assessing
Disruptively Transformative Futures
Sofi Kurki and Sirkka Heinonen
Sofi Kurki, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, 768 Mission Oaks Ln, Santa
Barbara, 93915 CA, USA. [email protected]
Sirkka Heinonen, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Korkeavuorenkatu 25 A 2,
00130 Helsinki, Finland, [email protected]
Keywords: Delphi, experts, journalism.
Introduction
The Delphi technique leans on three basic principles, equally emphasized in the traditional
version of the Delphi (Linstone & Turoff 1975; 2010) as well as in the more recent updates
of the technique (Tapio 2002). The core elements of the method include anonymous experts
responding to other experts´ insights in an iterative manner over multiple rounds. The third
assumption is that the quality of the panelists´ expertise transfers to the quality of the results,
usually interpreted as a correlation between highest possible expertise and the best possible
quality of the insights, and often leading to very quantitative criteria of a desirable expert panel
(measured as years of experience from a given field or other quantifiable merits). Recently
research from behavioral sciences (Tetlock 2005) has accumulated evidence that seems to
question and even contradict common interpretations about the latter assumption. A longitudinal
study over 20 years on political experts´ insights about the development of their field revealed
that cognitive traits of individual experts have significant effect on their ability to assimilate
contradicting information to their mental models, suggesting that on occasion dilettantes with
a high degree of general knowledge can provide more insightful views on the future. In this
study we suggest a method to combine these inputs from the behavioral studies to the Delphi
method.
Methodology
To study the much contested, disruptively transformative future of prosumerism in news media,
we assembled two Delphi panels, one based on the traditional criteria for an expert panel,
the other composed of a sample of professional futurists, here representing a group with high
general knowledge but a lesser amount of task specific expertise of the topic. In phase I, the
experts participated in a two round Argumentative Policy Delphi about the future of journalism.
The results were written into four images of the future. The experts were asked to review the
Theme 3b: Creative Futures
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four images of the future in terms of perceived subjective likelihood and desirability. In phase
II, the four images of the future along with a selection of background information about media
usage trends were subjected to the panel of futurists. The futurists´ task was to review the four
images of the future in terms of perceived subjective likelihood and desirability, and to imagine
innovative breakthrough technologies and suggest a fifth image of the future that would differ
from the four previous ones.
The study offers support to the hypothesis that expert scenario work can be enriched by adding
an “enlightened outsider” –view to the problem. The experience from this pilot study suggests
that the approach presented here could look especially promising if applied to sc. wicked
problems, where problem solving often depends on the way the problem is framed, and where
stakeholders often have radically different perspectives to the issue. Also, a fertile development
path could be to aggregate the approach with Integrated Assessment Modelling.
Conclusions
The experimental mix of quantitative and qualitative methods in conducting the Delphis combined
the insights from field experts and futurists with the intent to provide decision-making support
for various policy options by different stakeholders regarding the development of journalism,
press and media. This study at hand suggests promising new ways to approach expert foresight
methods. In the future, it could be developed into a method bridging, for example, experts and
political decision makers.
References
Linstone, H.A. & Turoff, M. (1975): The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. London: AddisonWesley.
Linstone, M. H.A. & Turoff, M. (2010): Delphi: A brief look backward and forward, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
Change (2010), http://ec.europa.eu/yourvoice/ipm/forms/dispatch1 / 3 22.11.2010 17:44doi:10.1016/j.
techfore.2010.09.011
Tapio, P. (2002): The Limits to Traffic Volume Growth. Acta Futura Fennica, No 8.Helsinki: Finnish Society
for Futures Studies.
Tetlock, P. (2005): Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How Can we Know? Princeton University
Press.
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Order Your Images of the Future Here
Maya Van Leemput
Reelfutures; [email protected]
Keywords: Images, frameworks, narratives, uses and gratifications
Introduction
Ray Bradbury’s 1983 science fiction story The Toynbee Convector revolves around the idea of
(faked) time-travel to collect (produce) and distribute (desirable) images of the future. In the story
such images impact directly and strongly on future history. In 2005, at the Second Prague Workshop
on Futures Studies Methodology of CESES at the Charles University in Prague, the author held a
workshop experiment inspired by that story.
At that workshop participants were invited to imagine that it would be possible for the two man
team presenting the experiment, to travel in time and go to the towns of Brussels and Prague of the
year 2035. Moreover, they could go to any of the possible futures of these towns and bring back
visual records from those futures. We asked: which images would be most useful to you? Images
that portray positive or negative developments? Images representing the activities of what sectors,
showing what kind of changes in the physical environment, depicting what aspects of daily life, could
be put to use in your work of today?
The results from this experiment indicated that the real use-value of images of the future was not
clearly determined or defined for most of the 13 workshop participants who took part. Our customary
frameworks for thinking and talking about FTA do not tell us what we can do with images but have us
rely on abstract analysis and narratives on the future. Methods for working out stories about the future
(scenario’s) or for identifying measurable trends are emphasised. How images help us communicate
and think about future possibilities is often ignored. This paper summarises the existing literature on
the use-value of images of the future for futures practitioners.
At the 4th edition of the International Seville Conference on FTA, we propose to repeat an extended
and updated version of the experiment held five years ago in Prague, this time with a larger group
of experts and with a more detailed survey. First we will pay attention to the nature of images and
imagery already used by these experts with a questionnaire on the role of images in their daily
practice. Second, on the order form accompanying the questionnaire, we will challenge them to
imagine and describe a picture that would be truly useful to them in their future oriented work.
The idea of open futures with multiple possibilities does not exclude that different use-values can
be ascribed to different kinds of images of the future. This use-value is determined not just by the
encoding of the image itself but also by its contextualisation, place and manner of presentation. The
scope of the questions in this paper is there for not limited to the substance of the images used or
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desired for use by FTA experts. The question how these experts, if they could have any image of the
future at their disposal, would propose to use them is equally relevant.
Involved with alternative scenarios and paying attention to possible, plausible and preferable futures,
the experts who participated in the original experiment were clearly in the habit of dealing with
‘real’ futures. Presented with the idea of time travel, they were often more tempted by the idea of
being able to find out the truth about the future than about the idea of being able to demonstrate
a possible future. We will therefore pay attention to the difference between the use of images as
“proof” of one single future possibility, as illustration of a possibility or as a trigger and a tool for
lively imagination. We will also consider defining characteristics of the images ordered. What places,
objects or activities do they show? What themes do they touch upon? Are they positive or negative?
Are they inspired by the past? What is their time-horizon? Where would they be used, for what
audience, with what intended effect?
Methodology
A background account of the historical use of images of the future in FTA and other futures fields
will serve as the basis for the development of a questionnaire and order form. Participants in the
survey are invited to fill these out; this can in part take place prior the conference and in part during
the conference. The results of the survey will be collated, analysed and interpreted afterwards and
presented in the final paper introduced here.
During the presentation of this paper, traditional, conventional as well as creative uses and
gratifications of images of the future will be discussed. In particular, we will pay attention to the
motivations for specific orders from the experts. The feedback from this discussion will be used in
the analysis and interpretation of the survey results. The substance of images used/useable in the
context of FTA will be examined and described as well as potential modes of deployment of these
images.
The image has significantly gained ground in today’s environment of rich communication and the
use of imagery may strengthen the cause of FTA wanting to deal with grand societal change. For this
potential to be realisable, FTA experts need to understand their own relationship with images and
imagery more profoundly. The type of research proposed here, may help clarify this relationship as
well as providing an overview of the possible uses and gratifications of images of the future in a world
of profound change. Moving away from philosophical/historical understandings of the meaning of
images of the future and aiming more directly at practical implications of the prevalence of imagery,
the recognition of the role of images in FTA may strengthen the field’s impact on popular imagination
as well as in policy environments.
Conclusions
Building on the exploratory work done in Prague, we zoom in on the use-value and creative potential
of images of the future for FTA experts. The experiment will be successful if as a consequence
of participating, a considerable portion of the experts deepen their understanding of their own
relationship with images and imagery in the context of their future oriented work.
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Future Scenarios to Inspire Innovations
Peter De Smedt*, Kristian Borch**
*SVR Research Centre, [email protected]
** Technical University of Denmark
Abstract
In recent years, and accentuated by the economic and financial crisis, complex global issues
have moved to the forefront of EU policy making. These grand challenges cut across different
policy domains and hence cannot be addressed from a specific sectoral point of view alone.
The EU 2020 strategy supporting the transition towards sustainability is seen as the process of
coming to terms with the grand challenges in all its ecological, social, economic and institutional
dimensions. This process is as much about innovation and the future, as it is about implementing
present technologies and (risk) management practices. Thinking about the future in forms of
scenarios implies imaging it in ways it might, should or should not come into reality. But is the
near future – or the end of the present - still open? Or is it already occupied by political visions,
economical interests and technological unfolding? What innovations deserve our immediate
interest? Why is the future given less value than the present, as reflected in the current and
continuous attempts to discount the future of our natural environment? In this paper the
authors will motivate that new methods are emerging for orienting innovation systems towards
sustainability. Participatory scenario analysis could be one of these promising methodologies.
The authors will focus on the question how scenario analysis can be used as a tool that supports
innovation, in theory as well as in practice. The key methodological issue at stake is why scenarios
are more often used to explore potential future risks instead of inspiring sustainable innovations.
Are inherent assumptions imbedded in the scenario methodology in favour of this risk approach,
or is this more related with the past and current practitioners or sponsors of scenario studies?
The paper will first provide an overview of new emerging concepts and paradigms from different
scientific disciplines such as future studies, innovation research, sociology, policy analysis and
global environmental change. These theoretical insights will then be used to analyse the selected
European case studies with a focus on disruptive transformations. The empirical analysis will
strongly focus on the comparison of the different scenario processes, the related outcomes and
indications of the impact on decision-making. Issues of interest are how applied or perceived
notions of time, non-linear knowledge, multiple stakeholder values and sustainability transitions
are initiating incentives or barriers for innovation in the scenario process. These empirical
findings will then be reflected back to scenario methodology providing new insights to inspire
processes that support innovation addressing the grand challenges.
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Competitiveness Monitor: An Integrated Foresight
Platform for The German Leading-Edge Cluster in
Logistics
Philipp Ecken*, Christoph Markmann*, Heiko von der
Gracht*, Inga-Lena Darkow*, Eckard Foltin†, Christopher
Stillings†, David Hartmann†, Gianluca De Lorenzis‡, Nadine
Helfenbein‡, Michael Münnich§
* Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management, EBS Business School, Germany (philipp.
[email protected])
†
Bayer MaterialScience AG, Germany; ‡ dilotec GmbH, Germany; § BrainNet Supply Management
Consultants GmbH, Germany
Keywords: Strategic
Management.
Planning,
Foresight,
Information
Technology,
Supply
Chain
Introduction
In July 2010 the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research launched Germany’s
biggest research project in the area of logistics and supply chain management. In the leadingedge cluster ‘EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr’ 130 stakeholders from industry and academia
participate in 28 research projects in order to address the key challenge to a sustainable future of
mobility and transport; meeting tomorrow’s needs with 75% of today’s resources. In this context
it is essential to provide a platform that utilizes the cluster’s potential in sharing complementary
resources and specifically in sharing knowledge that is relevant for future-oriented decisions.
The Competitiveness Monitor (CoMo), as one research project in the cluster, develops such a
platform.
Methodology
CoMo develops a future-oriented IT platform where science, business, and politics co-operate
to ensure a sustainable competitive advantage for all stakeholders and innovations in the
EfficiencyCluster. We have identified four major challenges for CoMo: (1) creating, linking, and
processing information about future macro- and microeconomic developments in logistics and
its environment; (2) providing educative information on futures studies and teaching futures
skills; (3) incentivizing stakeholders to systematically deal with their futures; and (4) stimulate
Theme 3c: Monitoring And Managing Platforms
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co-operation among cluster stakeholders. In order to address these challenges we will develop
three innovative foresight tools that support strategic planning and future-oriented decision
making and integrate them in an internet-based foresight platform. We will focus on the content
related to the EfficiencyCluster including logistics and related topics, but the platform will be
open to address other industries and functions at a later stage. First, a trend database will
combine and link qualitative and quantitative future-oriented knowledge on the clusters core
nature – mobility, supply chains and logistics. Value, validity, and relevance result from cooperation, co-creation, and external- and internal linkage, generating a robust decision basis
for foresight activities (Surowiecki, 2004; Kane & Fichman, 2009; Auer & Lehmann, 2010).
Second, trends are projected into individuals’ futures and recommended actions can be derived
in digital future workshops. For example, drivers and inhibitors of sustainable development can
be assessed in process controlled foresight tools such as scenario analysis. Finally, prediction
markets provide an innovative forecasting environment that incentivizes stakeholders of the
EfficiencyCluster to participate on global and specific supply chain management and logistics
topics (Ho and Chen 2007).
Results, policy impact and implications
The cooperative nature of the platform increases transparency and access to knowledge for
all stakeholders in the cluster. We reduce information asymmetries and increase the velocity
of communication and innovation potential. Partners of the EfficiencyCluster are involved in
sustaining actuality, validity, and relevancy of future-relevant knowledge in the trend database.
Prediction markets allow for incentivizing users to share individual knowledge in order to increase
overall knowledge within the cluster and beyond. We will strive for a competitive advantage by
addressing co-operation specific topics that are vital to overall cluster success.
Importantly, through personalization, the needs of the individual user are not neglected. Decision
makers can actively shape their future combining qualitative and quantitative information from
the trend database to build a robust decision space. On this basis future-oriented strategic tools
provide innovative qualitative and quantitative foresight support. These will support logistics
planning and thus generate an individual decision making environment.
In addition, linkage within the trend database, among the tools, and with external data creates a
holistic and robust picture of relevant futures. Linkage generates the possibility to acknowledge
trends early and systematically. Decision makers can identify early warnings and weak signals
and consequently react faster to sudden changes in their futures. This creates a significant
competitive advantage for the cluster. In addition, policy decision makers will be able to share
insights into legislation processes and get involved in market trendsetting.
Conclusions
The combination of a trend database, future workshops, and prediction markets in an internetbased future platform facilitates cooperation, provides a shared future-relevant knowledge
basis, and ensures individual future-oriented decision support. Ultimately, the CoMo project
contributes to the superior aim of Germany’s biggest research cluster in logistics by fostering
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stakeholders’ future-oriented decision quality. Thus, sustainable success of innovations and
competitive advantages of stakeholders in the cluster can be achieved.
References
Auer, S. and J. Lehmann (2010). “Creating Knowledge out of Interlinked Data.” Semantic Web Journal 1.
Ho, T.-H. and K.-Y. Chen (2007). “New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets “
California Management Review 50(1): 144-158.
Kane, G. and R. Fichman (2009). “The Shoemaker’s Children: Using Wikis for Information Systems Teaching,
Research, and Publication.” Management Information Systems Quarterly 33(1): 1-22.
Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds: Why the many are smarter than the few and how collective
wisdom shapes business, economies, societies, and nations. London: Little, Brown.
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Trend Database Design for Effectively Managing
Foresight Knowledge – A Sophisticated FTA
Content Base Architecture to Enable Foresight
Processes
Christoph Markmann*, Philipp Ecken*, Heiko von der
Gracht*, Inga-Lena Darkow*, Eckard Foltin†, Christopher
Stillings†, David Hartmann†, Gianluca De Lorenzis‡, Nadine
Helfenbein‡, Michael Münnich§,
* Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management, EBS Business School, Germany
([email protected])
†
Bayer MaterialScience AG, Germany;‡ dilotec GmbH, Germany; § BrainNet Supply Management
Consultants GmbH, Germany
Keywords: Trend database, Foresight, Supply Chain Management, Information Technology,
Strategic Planning
Introduction
With the intention of furthering their objective of developing a highly innovative and sustainable
logistics industry, in 2010 the German Federal Government launched one of its biggest research
initiatives in the area of logistics and supply chain management – the EfficiencyCluster LogisticsRuhr.
Overall, 130 companies and organisations, including 56 small and medium sized enterprises and
11 research institutes and universities, cooperate in 28 research projects on emerging topics and
challenges in logistics. One of the projects deals with the development of an innovative, webbased Foresight Platform, which supports strategic decision making and contingency planning as
well as competitive and environmental intelligence. Called the ‘Competitiveness Monitor’ (CoMo),
it aims to leverage innovation potential and synergy in order to generate competitive advantages
for all the cluster partners.
The CoMo consists of three innovative foresight tools – (1) Trend Database (TDB), (2) Prediction
Market and (3) Future Workshop (“Zukunftswerkstatt”) – which are integrated into an IT-based
(4) Foresight Platform. The TDB determines the heart of the CoMo by providing and storing
knowledge relevant for future competitiveness. For this reason, challenging demands are made
to the characteristics and functions of the TDB.
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Methodology
Since the beginning of our project in mid-2010 we have conducted a thorough market analysis
and compared eight existing TDB architectures. Through this we have gained an overview
of the state-of-the-art of existing foresight database tools. Furthermore, we have conducted
several participatory workshop sessions and developed relevant use cases to add further
requirements from a user perspective. Close collaboration between the project experts from
a large manufacturing corporation, a supply chain management consultancy, an IT service
provider and an academic research institution ensured high levels of scientific rigor and industry
relevance as well as large-scale usability for later stakeholders in the EfficiencyCluster. The
identification and analysis of requirements has been systematically conducted, following the
‘Volere Requirements Specification Template’ (Robertson and Robertson 2006). Through the
comparison of the results of the TDB concept analysis and the requirement analysis we were
able to identify and evaluate today’s core challenges in TDB design and architecture.
Our analysis of existing TDB concepts and the requirement specification process within the
CoMo project team have revealed four main challenges: (1) Extensiveness and quality of
trend information, (2) Cooperation within the TDB-community, (3) Linking mechanisms and
(4) Incentive mechanisms for users. The extensiveness and the quality of the knowledge are
relevant in supporting the user with all required information. Thereby, we will present data
and information in a clear structure to facilitate finding relevant information. Co-creation is
a central topic of the CoMo project, which can bring substantial benefits for stakeholders
(see e.g. Hoyer, Chandy et al. 2010), e.g. by providing an accurate and holistic picture of the
future according to the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ (Surowiecki 2004). Besides the information
itself, the intelligent linkage of data is essential for TDB users. The CoMo TDB will distinguish
between three linkage mechanisms: the linkage of trends amongst each other, the linkage
of foresight tools within the CoMo and the linkage with other external data pools. The latter
we will implement with the concept of a Semantic Web, a machine-readable and valuecreating network of linked data (Berners-Lee, Hendler et al. 2001) in which computers and
programs can locate and integrate information without human intervention (Horrocks 2008).
However the participation of users is required here as well since the datasets need to be
linked manually before the advantages of a Semantic Web can be implemented. Thus, the
incentive mechanisms for users to share their knowledge within the community and to process
the stored knowledge is essential for the success of the CoMo project’s TDB.
Conclusions
Most of the currently existing TDBs provide their content via a panel of experts, which collects and
edits trends and weak signals. However, current tendencies such as the increasing number of
members in social communities or the disclosure of previously protected data (i.e. open source /
innovation) suggest that existing concepts need to be adapted to the changing requirement basis in
order to remain competitive. Therefore we acknowledge these novel business demands and develop
an innovative TDB concept that integrates modern linkage and collaboration approaches.
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References
Berners-Lee, T., Hendler, J., Lassila, O. (2001). “The Semantic Web.” Scientific American 284(5): 34-43.
Horrocks, I. A. N. (2008). “Ontologies and the Semantic Web.” Communications of the ACM 51(12): 58-67.
Hoyer, W. D., Chandy, R., Dorotic, M., Krafft, M., Singh, S. S. (2010). “Consumer Cocreation in New Product
Development.” Journal of Service Research 13(3): 283-296.
Robertson, S. and J. Robertson (2006). Mastering the Requirements Process, Second Edition. Amsterdam,
Addison-Wesley Professional
Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds: Why the many are smarter than the few and how collective
wisdom shapes business, economies, societies, and nations. London: Little, Brown.
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Web 2.0 for Foresight: Experiences on an
Innovation Platform in European Agenda Setting
Karel Haegeman
European Commission, JRC-IPTS, Edificio EXPO. C/ Inca Garcilaso, 3. 41092 Sevilla, Spain
[email protected]
Cristiano Cagnin
European Commission, JRC-IPTS, Edificio EXPO. C/ Inca Garcilaso, 3. 41092 Sevilla, Spain
[email protected]
Totti Könnölä
Impetu Solutions, Calle Víctor Andrés Belaunde, 36. 28016 Madrid, Spain
[email protected]
Doug Collins
[email protected]
Georgi Dimitrov
[email protected]
Keywords: social platforms, web 2.0 and FTA, innovation, priority setting, community building.
Introduction
While the private sector has already discovered the wide set of benefits of web 2.0 technologies
(McKinsey, 2009), the public sector is only beginning to use these tools. Especially the use of
interactive and collaborative tools in FTA for priority setting has been rather limited until today.
This paper focuses in particular on the use of social web platforms in steering innovation efforts.
It analyses how the objectives, design, outcomes and impact web 2.0 foresight processes differ
from other participatory processes and how future-oriented information can be collected in such
approach.
Methodology
Compared to more traditional ways of stakeholder involvement, social web platforms introduce
real time feedback into the process of stakeholder involvement, which allows for a much more
interactive and collaborative involvement fundamentally changing the way opinions are collected.
The paper identifies factors that influence on the design of web 2.0 processes in support of
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innovation policy and how those differ from more traditional ways of stakeholder involvement.
Then a conceptual framework is constructed building on experiences in conventional FTA
processes and in use of web 2.0 in other areas (Shannon et al, 2009; Dinesh et al, 2010).
This framework is then attested against the design and implementation of a foresight case
of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) in collaboration with JRC-IPTS,
where a web 2.0 ideation platform was used to collect ideas from research and development
communities across the globe for world leading innovation that integrate education, business
and research with a specific thematic focus. The case study includes an idea collection phase,
an idea assessment phase, an analytical phase and a validation workshop. The results of the
study serve as support to the EIT Governing Board in defining the contents of the EIT’s first
Strategic Innovation Agenda in 2011 and priority themes after 2013. The findings of the case
study are reported and used to propose refinements to the framework.
The proposed framework also has wider implications for decision-making processes in priority
setting. The paper discusses a number of barriers to a wider use of web 2.0 in the public
sector (Accenture, 2009), and more specifically in steering research and innovation efforts,
and proposes ways to overcome these barriers. Finally, it is also used to explore how web 2.0
supports community building in innovation development.
The proposed framework and the case study suggest that the use interactive and collaborative
tools in stakeholder engagement requires a different approach towards the design and
implementation of foresight processes. Additional implications include the potential of these
tools to integrate data types of all sorts and opportunities to use web 2.0 platforms to support
the creation of communities under certain circumstances.
Conclusions
The paper offers some new insights into the design and implementation of web-based interactive
and collaborative foresight projects in support of policy and decision-making in general, and
innovation policies more specifically. It also indicates barriers to a wider use of such tools in
policy and decision-making, and opportunities for embedding them, thus improving transparency
and supporting community building.
References
Dinesh Rathi and Lisa M. Given (2010), “Research 2.0: A Framework for Qualitative and Quantitative Research
in Web 2.0 Environments,” hicss, pp.1-10, 2010 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.
McKinsey & Company (2009), McKinsey Global Survey Results: How Companies are benefiting from
Web 2.0,
Sibbald S. L., Singer P. A., Upshur R and Martin D. K. (2009), Priority setting: what constitutes success? A
conceptual framework for successful priority setting, BMC Health Services Research.
Accenture (2009), Web 2.0 and the Next Generation of Public Service
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Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic
Transformations towards Sustainable Mobility The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany
Martin Zimmermann, Johannes Warth, Heiko von der
Gracht, Inga-Lena Darkow
Centre for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management, EBS Business School, Soehnleinstrasse
8F, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germany, [email protected]
Keywords: Backcasting, real-time Delphi, automotive industry.
Introduction
Radical systemic changes to current systems of mobility, especially in industrialized countries,
are required to achieve sustainable development (Nykvist & Whitmarsh, 2008). These changes
on a system level are referred to as systemic industrial transformations towards sustainability.
Such transformations require combinations of technological, cultural, societal, institutional, and
organisational aspects, while affecting many stakeholders when diffusing into society and involving
complex processes of societal change on the long term (Quist & Vergragt, 2006). Transformations
towards sustainability in mobility are very complex phenomena: inherent uncertainty of technological
and infrastructural developments and the inherent ambiguity of stakeholders having different value
sets and mental frameworks. Within the field of FTA an emerging approach for achieving transitions
towards a sustainable future is backcasting. We demonstrate how an innovative backcasting process
can be applied to analyze possible transformations to sustainable mobility in Germany.
Methodology
Backcasting incorporates developing a desirable future scenario and looking back at how this can
be achieved, before defining appropriate strategies (Höjer, Gullberg, & Pettersson; Quist & Vergragt,
2006; Robinson, 1988). We designed an innovative backcasting process by implementing four
steps including an internet-based, real-time Delphi survey (Gordon & Pease, 2006). The first step
“Strategic Problem Orientation” is the problem definition and description of the current situation in a
qualitative way by executing participatory workshops with dedicated experts from major stakeholder
groups. In the second part “Development of Future Images and Influencing Factors”, a sample of
140 experts from 15 different stakeholder groups (academics, car manufacturers, suppliers, service
providers, associations, etc.) provided estimations on 20 future projections concerning probability,
desirability, and impact based on a real-time Delphi survey. Resulting from this survey, scenarios
were developed and influencing factors were identified: Delphi participants’ answers were statistically
analyzed in order to identify a desirable future scenario. Furthermore, by systematically coding the
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participants’ arguments the major influencing factors for the transition paths to the desirable scenario
were identified. Thirdly, in the step “Development of Measures“, backcasting interviews based on a
standardized interview guide with more than 40 experts from various stakeholder groups have been
conducted in order to discuss measures on the transition to the desirable scenario. For this step
we developed an innovative backcasting template to ensure reliability in the research process. The
fourth step “Follow-up” includes the dissemination of results and recommendations in participatory
workshops with the relevant stakeholders.
We developed a desirable and a probable scenario as well as influencing factors on the way to the
desirable scenario. Based on the semi-structured interviews we elaborated on the path towards the
desirable scenario. The analysis included appropriate measures, existing pitfalls, and involvement
and action of different stakeholders. We were able to develop and text a backcasting exercise
that combines the advantages of quantitative and qualitative methods. The goal was to combine
the structured method real-time Delphi survey, where the results can be analyzed with the help of
statistical methods, and more open and qualitatively oriented methods based on semi-structured
interviews and coding of arguments.
Conclusions
So far, backcasting has been applied using a number of different techniques. Mostly, however, focus
groups were used to develop scenarios or measures on the pathway towards a desirable future.
In our backcasting approach, we show how real-time Delphi and interviews can be combined in
order to tackle sustainability problems such as sustainable mobility in Germany in a very structured
discussion. Specifically, with the help of combining real-time Delphi and semi-structured in-depth
interviews, shortcomings of focus groups such as the suppression of alternative opinions could
be circumvented. Furthermore, by using an internet-based real-time Delphi survey and individual
interviews via telephone we were able to include a sample of 140 experts in the Delphi step and 43
participants in the interviews, coming from 15 different groups in each case. Thereby, we achieved a
“truly” multifaceted view as well as high cross-validity.
References
Gordon, T., & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4), 321-333.
Höjer, M., Gullberg, A., & Pettersson, R. (In Press, Corrected Proof). Backcasting images of the future city-Time and space for sustainable development in Stockholm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
In Press, Corrected Proof.
Nykvist, B., & Whitmarsh, L. (2008). A multi-level analysis of sustainable mobility transitions: Niche
development in the UK and Sweden. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(9), 1373-1387.
Quist, J., & Vergragt, P. (2006). Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a
proposal for a methodological framework. Futures, 38(9), 1027-1045.
Robinson, J. B. (1988). Unlearning and backcasting: Rethinking some of the questions we ask about the
future. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 33(4), 325-338.
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Future of Transport: Foresight and Forward
Looking Activities
Claus Seibt
Austrian Institute of Technology
Department Foresight and Policy Development
[email protected]
Keywords: Future of Transport, Foresight, Forward Look, forward projection, avantgardist
architectures.
Introduction
In the past few years a large number of Foresight and Forward Looking activities regarding the
Future of Transport were performed at a European and national scale. Regarding the outcome
as regards to content, more similarities than differences can be noticed. However, differences
regarding the outcome are due to the arenas the activities were performed for. Observed
particularities are of high interest to be discussed from a policy studies point of perspective.
Methodology
Methodological approach: Studying different European and National Foresight and Forward
Looking activities in the transport and technology sector performed in the past few years.
Discussing these activities regarding the public administration and policy arenas they were
planned and performed for.
The paper will focus on different types of foresight and forward looking activities. Differences and
similarities will be worked out and the outcome of these activities discussed. The paper pledges
for a combination of foresight and forward looks to interlink forward projection approaches with
visionary and interactive approaches. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages.
While forward projections in common do not sufficiently take into account radical regime shifts.
Visionary approaches tend to get avantgardist in technology architectures.
The context and function of foresight and forward looks in a particular policy or public
administration arena is often not sufficiently taken into account. However, to remind the context
and understand the policy arrangement before starting a foresight process is crucial regarding
its later impact and implications.
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Conclusions
It will be discussed, what role foresight activities do play in different policy and public
administration arenas. A critical perspective will be taken looking at different types of
foresight and forward looking activities ant their entitlements to shape the future.
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A Problem-Oriented Categorisation of FTAmethods for Transport Planning
Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Institute for Technology Assessment and
Systems Analysis (ITAS)
P.O. Box 3640; 76021 Karlsruhe; Germany
Keywords: FTA methods, transport planning, uncertainties, unintended effects.
Introduction
Various examples illustrate that governing transport is a complex task, which makes it difficult to
correctly and entirely anticipate the effects of policy making (see TSU Oxford et al. 2010, also
Kleindorfer 2008). In many cases policy interventions lead to unintended or adverse effects.
We differentiate between unintended effects that have been well-known in advance (“knowns”),
effects that have only been roughly anticipated (“known unknowns”), and effects that are
completely surprising (“unknown unknowns”). As in other socio-technical fields, a broad range
of rather different FTA-methods are used in transport planning to improve the quality, robustness
and legitimacy of decisions. Potential effects of policy interventions and innovations need to
be assessed; risks and uncertainties have to be reduced. Given the complexity and interrelated
dynamics in many socio-technical fields, it is in general not possible to use only one method; it
is essential to use different FTA- tools and methods in an appropriate and tailored manner. For
example, both the demand side as well as the supply side have to be analysed to assess the
potentials and consequences of interventions in the transport sector.
It can be observed that a wide range of tools and methods are applied in context of prospective
analyses of the effects of policy interventions in the transport system (see DLR, KIT 2010;
Justen et al. 2010). There are computer-based modelling efforts to quantify trends and their
interrelations; there are as well methods based on expert dialogue, discussions and citizen or
stakeholder participation, which intend to examine alternative possibilities, to generate visions
of desirable futures or to anticipate unintended effects of policies. None of these methods are
able to systematically reproduce a complete system, they all have their limits. For example,
methods such as transport models only show a pre-defined segment of the broader system,
whereas other methods might only provide selected knowledge from rather different areas
(brainstorming, open space or a focus group).
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Methodology
This contribution compares the pros and cons of various FTA-methods for the detection of
different kinds of unintended effects. On this basis, a rather transparent and problem-oriented
typology of FTA-methods is suggested and discussed in relation to several examples. It is
assumed that such a categorisation of methods is helpful as a basis for an appropriate usage
of FTA-methods in the process of policy making. Key criteria for the categorisation of tools and
methods are their abilities in detecting different types of unintended effects in the transport
system and beyond. In doing so, the typology supports the application of systematic and robust
FTA-processes.
A general distinction between two groups of tools is made according to the following criteria:
Does the structure of the method allow for a high degree in openness concerning the inclusion
of parameters and linkages between parameters or is the method instead characterised by
a pre-defined set of nodes and linkages between these nodes? Accordingly, two categories
are introduced which are called ‘structurally open methods’ (for example public participation
or expert workshops) and ‘structurally closed methods’ (for example transport models). The
rather “classical” distinction between qualitative and quantitative data is a relevant element of
this categorisation. However, the dichotomy openness/closeness is used as the main criterion
since it seems to be highly important for the type of unintended effects, risks or uncertainties that
can be detected with a method (DLR, KIT 2010). A third category will be discussed to describe
typical examples for mixed approaches combining structurally open and structurally closed
methods (examples are scenario processes or roadmapping activities). Using examples from
the transport sector, there will be discussion on which methods should be applied or combined
for which kind of problems and at which stage in the process of policy making.
Conclusions
For different phases of the planning process either more open or more closed methods are
suitable. For example, in the EU-FP7 project OPTIC it is concluded, that structurally open
methods should rather be used in an explorative phase at the beginning of a planning process,
structurally closed methods should be used in the middle, and more open methods should
be used at the end again. Accordingly, elements of both categories need to be combined in a
systematic way to achieve sound results (see DLR, KIT 2010; Justen et al. 2010).
Such a problem-oriented categorisation of FTA methods is assumed to support a better
understanding of the potentials of different methods. Furthermore, it helps to sharpen sensitivity
for risk and uncertainties in planning processes. In addition, the methodology should in particular
increase awareness for a more careful design and integration of structurally open methods.
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References
DLR and KIT (2010). OPTIC Deliverable 2: Inventory of tools and methods for early detection of adverse
effects. http://optic.toi.no
Kleindorfer, P.R. (2008). Reflections on the Decision Making under Uncertainties. Faculty and Research
Working Paper. INSEAD The Business School for the World. http://ssrn.com/abstract=1310239
Justen, A.; Schippl, J.; Hölt, A.; Fleischer, T. (2010): Expect the unexpected: qualitative and quantitative
tools and methods to detect unintended effects of transport policies. Vortrag auf der European Transport
Conference 2010 in Glasgow. Glasgow, Schottland, 12.10.2010
TSU Oxford et al. (2010). OPTIC Deliverable 1: Inventory of measures, typology of non-intentional effects and
a framework for policy packaging. http://optic.toi.no
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Consistent Context Scenarios: a New Approach to
‘Story And Simulation’
Hannah Kosow
University of Stuttgart, ZIRN, Seidenstraße 36, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany;
[email protected]
Keywords: environmental futures, scenario methods, simulation, consistency, cross-impact
balance analysis
Introduction
Over the last decade, scenarios of (global) environmental change often have been developed
by an approach labelled “Story And Simulation” (SAS) (Alcamo 2008). The basic idea of SAS is
to explore futures of coupled human-natural systems via numerical simulation models combined
with qualitative storylines (or ‘narratives’) (see also Kemp-Benedict 2004, Winterscheid 2008).
This approach has important strengths compared to ‘quantitative modeling only’ approaches.
For instance, SAS allows doing justice to the uncertainty and the (in part) qualitative character of
future social, political and economical developments. Scenarios resulting from SAS processes
have been used both for scientific purposes and have become relevant for informing and
structuring public and political debates, e.g. the so called SRES scenarios published by the
IPCC (Nakicenovic et al. 2007). At the same time, scenarios generated via SAS have been
criticized in terms of usefulness and credibility (e.g. Girod et al. 2002; Schweizer 2007; Parson
2008). We focus on two weaknesses of SAS: first, there is a methodological imbalance, as SAS
combines formal and systematic modeling on the one hand with creative scenario techniques
as ‘intuitive logics’ with rather weak transparency and scientific credibility on the other hand.
Second, a basic idea of SAS is that the coupling with mathematical models allows checking the
internal consistency of the storylines (e.g. Alcamo 2008: 137). There are hints that this promise
might be difficult to hold in practice (see Schweizer 2007 with regard to the SRES scenarios).
Therefore, we identify possible methodological variants of SAS and discuss a new approach:
We propose to test the combination of the cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) (Weimer-Jehle
2006) with simulation models. CIB is a qualitative but systematic form of systems analysis using
a balance algorithm to generate consistent scenarios. We ask, how CIB could be used within
a new approach to SAS and what potential benefits and limits we can expect from ‘CIBAS’ (i.e.
‘CIB And Simulation’).
Methodology
This work is mainly based on literature review. SAS is described and discussed with regard to
its strengths and weaknesses. Based on review of literature on CIB and on general conceptual
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thoughts on scenario processes combining simulation models with qualitative scenario
techniques, we deduce conceptual ideas on ‘CIBAS’ and formulate expectations on potential
and limits of its application.
In practice, processes combining qualitative scenario techniques and simulation models can be
designed in multiple forms. Their design depends on variables as the ‘division of labor’ between
the two components, the ‘distribution of power’, the timing and positioning, the structure of
overlap between the scopes, the degree and structure of coupling and on the scenario technique
applied. But their design also depends on the (social) contexts of their application and use.
Generally, within CIBAS the ‘intuitive logics’ approach of SAS could be complemented or replaced
by the systematic CIB. CIBAS is imaginable either in form of ‘consistent context scenarios’, in
which CIB scenarios provide numerical models with information about the ‘outside world’ in form
of (harmonized) consistent context scenarios, which can be used as qualitative background
information and/or as input parameter for simulation runs. Or, CIBAS could be designed in form
of ‘integration tools’ in which CIB scenarios provide an interdisciplinary conceptual framework
that can be linked in multiple ways with several coupled numerical models.
We expect CIBAS a) to balance the methodological imbalance of SAS by its systematic and
transparent approach; b) to assure the internal consistency of the qualitative scenarios via CIB;
c) to support the reproducibility of the scenario process (not the result) by explicitly documenting
underlying mental models including their assumptions on interrelations. Still, in practice, we
expect CIBAS to be ridden with many of the same prerequisites as the ideal type SAS: e.g., the
translation of verbal into numerical statements remains a challenge. Furthermore, CIBAS might
tend to overemphasize causal relationships.
Conclusions
Our work suggests that the concept of SAS can – at least in part – be improved by new
approaches, e.g., by the combination of cross-impact balance analysis and simulation (‘CIBAS’).
Mainly, we expect CIBAS to alleviate the methodological imbalance of SAS and to carry through
its ‘promise of consistency’. Overall, the expected benefits of CIBAS suggest that it could
enhance the usefulness and credibility of SAS processes for internal scientific users as well as
for external non-scientific users. CIBAS and its different methodological variations now have to
be explored and tested empirically. We currently initiate different case studies.
References
Alcamo J. (2008): Environmental Futures. The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis. Elsevier.
Girod, B. et al. (2009): The evolution of the IPCC’s emissions scenarios. In: Environmental Science & Policy,
12/2, 103–118.
Kemp-Benedict, E. (2004): From Narrative to Number: A Role for Quantitative Models in Scenario Analysis,
Conference of the International Environmental Modeling and Software Society, 2004.
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Nakicenovic, N. et al. (2000): Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK.
Parson, E. A. (2008): Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges. In: Environmental
Research Letters, Jg. 3, H. 4.
Schweizer V. J. (2007): Thinking about Conditions Influencing the Future of Carbon Emissions: Implications of
Internally Consistent Scenarios Generated by a Cross-Impact Matrix. Qualifying Exam Paper for Engineering
and Public Policy, 5. Jan 2007. Carnegie Mellon University.
Weimer-Jehle W. (2006): Cross-impact balances: a system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. In:
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73, 334–361.
Winterscheid, A. (2008): Szenariotechnik im Hochwasserrisikomanagement. Dissertation, Technische
Universität Darmstadt.
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Technology Life Cycle Analysis Modeling based on
Patent analysis
Lidan Gao,1,2 Alan L Porter,3 Jing Wang,4 Tingting Ma,5
Wenping Wang,5 Shu Fang,1 Xian Zhang,1 Lu Huang5
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
1 Chengdu Library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, P. R. China,
2 School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031,
P. R. China,
3 School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332-0345, USA,
4 College of Computer Science & Technology, Huaqiao University, Xiamen, 361021, P. R. China
5 School of Management and Economic, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, P. R. China
Keywords: technology life cycle, patent, indicator, cathode ray tube, Thin Film Transistor
liquid crystal display, nano-biosensor.
Introduction
The Technology Life Cycle (TLC) concerns the full spectrum from R&D through
commercialization. Patents and trademarks are important elements of the TLC system
reflecting the goal of maximizing profit by protecting the investment of the organization
in pursuing R&D. The major approach to analyzing TLC comes from the observation that
technological performance data often show an S-shaped relationship, either over time
or cumulative R&D expenditures. Usually, patent application activity is tracked as a TLC
indicator for the S-shaped analysis. But using the patent application counts alone to represent
the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. Accordingly, some complicated
indicators are used to measure TLC. Watts and Porter (1997) introduced 9 indicators that look
at publications of different types during the technology life cycle. Reinhard et al. (2007) tested
7 indicators related to patents.
In this paper, we focus on devising and assessing patent-based TLC stage indicators, and apply
these indicators to an object technology to help forecast its technological development.
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Methodology
The most fundamental and challenging task is to select suitable indicators and data sources.
Many researchers have studied patents as a tool to measure technological development (i.e/
Basberg, 1987). We build upon this established indicator research. In recent work (Zhang et
al 2009), we have compiled candidate patent indicators from multiple sources. Through expert
interviews and questionnaires, we have selected the following indicators to pursue for TLC
assessment:
Number of applications, Number of assignees, Number of company assignees, Human Resource
Input (Number of inventors), Number of utilities, Number of designs, Number of backward
citations to science literature, Number of backward citations for patents, Number of IPC.
We now focus on particular technologies and assess their life cycle stages by means of Delphi
process. Here we choose CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) and TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid
Crystal Display) as indicator sets. We employ normalization to preprocess the CRT and TFTLCD data of all indicators in each stage, and then obtain the features of each stage in the
indicator sets by classifier (Watanabe et al., 2009). We next apply the resulting features of
indicator sets to a different technology as a test case study. Here we present this for the case
of nano-biosensors (NBS).
In this research, only U.S. patents are measured because inventors use their home country
protection for almost every invention; furthermore, inventors feel that U.S. protection for those
innovations represents significant advantages or commercial value. We choose DII as data
source for most of the indicators, CASSIS for designs, VantagePoint for data cleaning and
extraction.
The research framework is organized as follows:
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We present the TLC indicators sets and their application to NBS. Results enable a technology
observer to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular emerging technology of
interest.
References
Robert J Watts, Alan L Porter. 1997. Innovation forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
56, 25–47
Reinhard Haupt, Martin Kloyer, Marcus Lange. 2007. Patent indicators for the technology life cycle
development. Research Policy, 36, 387–398.
Bjørn L Basberg. 1987. Patents and the development of technological change: A survey of the literature.
Research Policy, 16, 131–141.
Xian Zhang, Shu Fang, Chuan Tang, Guohua Xiao, Zhengyin Hu, Lidan Gao. 2009.Study on Indicator System
for Core Patent Documents Evaluation.Proceedings of ISSI 2009 - the 12th international conference of the
International Society for scientometrics and informetrics, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1: 154-164.
C Watanabe, YS Tsuji, C Griffy-Brown. 2001. Patent statistics: deciphering a ‘real’ versus a ‘pseudo’ proxy of
innovation. Technovation, 21, 783–790.
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Energy Transitions: Adaptive Policy Making under
Deep Uncertainty
Hamarat, C. and Pruyt, E.
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The
Netherlands
Email: [email protected]
Keywords: deep uncertainty, adaptive policy making, robustness, Exploratory Modeling
and Analysis, exploration of plausible futures.
Introduction
Deep uncertainty can be defined as the situations where the parties to a decision cannot
agree on model representation, probability distributions in the model and the evaluation
of the outcomes (Lempert et al, 2003). In the presence of deep uncertainty, decision
making becomes a difficult task. Several method(ologie)s –mostly model-based– have
been developed and are currently used for dealing with this difficulty. Models are often
considered to be mathematical representations of real world systems where modelers make
certain assumptions about the system of interest. When using models to predict the future,
modelers assume their models to be true. However, under deep uncertainty, that claim does
not hold.
In policy making, one most common way is still to seek an optimal policy which outperforms
all other alternatives. However, in the presence of deep uncertainty, the assumptions under
which optimal policies are chosen may not hold anymore. Adaptive and robust policies that
perform well enough across an ensemble of plausible futures may well be preferable over
static policies that are optimal for one or few futures (Lempert et al, 2003). Hence, there
is a strong need for not static but adaptive policies which are “more robust to a range of
anticipated conditions and can adapt over time” (Swanson et al, 2010).
In this paper, a new research methodology, Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA), for
improving adaptive policy making under deep uncertainty is presented. The performance of
EMA on adaptive policy making is illustrated with a case study about the transition of energy
systems, which is a long-term and deeply uncertain dynamically complex issue.
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Methodology
Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) (Agusdinata, 2008) is a new research methodology
for exploring and analyzing deep uncertainty and supporting long term strategic policy-making
under deep uncertainty by using computational experiments. EMA is not a modeling technique
by itself. Instead, it is a methodology for using models in an explorative way - more specifically
more aggregated and still useful models. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model about
energy transitions is used for deep uncertainty analysis. Major steps in EMA are: (1) specification
of the uncertainties (parametric and/or structural), (2) development of fast and simple computer
models of the system, (3) exploration of an ensemble of futures, (4) developing policy options,
(5) comparison of the performance of the policies and (6) policy recommendation.
The initial step in our analysis is to specify the parametric and structural uncertainties in
the model, such as lifetimes, progress ratios, marginal costs or desired fractions of different
technologies. Following that, computational experiments for exploring the uncertainty space are
performed and tens of thousands of plausible scenarios are explored. After these computational
experiments, adaptive policy options are developed and their performance is tested among the
ensemble of futures. The outcomes are visualized with various visualization techniques to have
a better understanding of the scenario space generated. Finally, adaptive and robust policies
that perform well over the ensemble of futures are recommended for policy making.
In our analysis, parametric and structural uncertainties in energy transitions are explored. The
results show that decision making under deep uncertainty can be improved using EMA. Since
the competition of new sustainable energy technologies and existing ones is an important issue
for policy makers in the future, there is a strong need for decision support for developing better
investment policies. Under deep uncertainty, developing long-term policies is very difficult. Static
policies that are based on predictions about the future face the threat of failing or not being able
to adapt over time. For this reason, policies should be adaptive and robust and it is shown in this
study that adaptive policy making performs better under deep uncertainty.
Furthermore, previous practices of EMA (Pruyt, Hamarat, 2010 & 2010a) and this study
illustrates that EMA is a promising methodology for improving decision support in short/long
term dynamically complex and deeply uncertain policy making issues.
Conclusions
This study illustrates that it is possible to develop adaptive policies for a long-term dynamically
complex and deeply uncertain problem by using EMA. As stated, the main aim is not to predict
the future. Using aggregated and relatively small models, which can still grasp the general
dynamics of the problem; it is possible to explore an ensemble of futures. Furthermore, adaptive
policies that are robust among these future scenarios perform better under deep uncertainty.
Considering the importance of the sustainable development of future energy technologies,
possible investment scenarios are analyzed and plausible transition pathways for global energy
technologies are shown. This study explores these transition pathways of competing energy
technologies in a deeply uncertain future.
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References
Agusdinata, D. (2008). Exploratory Modelling and Analysis. A Promising Method to Deal with Deep Uncertainty.
PhD dissertation, Delft University of Technology, Delft.
Lempert, R., S. Popper, and S. Bankes (2003). Shaping the next one hundred years: New methods for
quantitative, long-term policy analysis. RAND report MR-1626, The RAND Pardee Center, Santa Monica,
CA.
Pruyt, E. and C. Hamarat; “The concerted run on the DSB Bank: An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach,”
In
Proceedings of the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, Korea, 2010.
Pruyt, E. and C. Hamarat; “The Influenza A(H1N1)v Pandemic: An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach,”
In
Proceedings of the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, Korea, 2010a.
Swanson, D., S. Barg, S. Tyler, H. Venema, S. Tomar, S. Bhadwal, S. Nair, D. Roy and J. Drexhage (2010).
Seven tools for creating adaptive policies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 6, 924-939.
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Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an Approach
for Model-based Foresight under Deep Uncertainty
J.H. Kwakkel & E. Pruyt
Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, Netherlands [email protected]
Keywords: Uncertainty, Exploratory Modelling and Analysis, Adaptive Policymaking, Agent
based simulation, System Dynamics.
Introduction
Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) is understood as the field interested in analysing
future technology and its consequences. FTA relies on a wide array of methods for exploring
futures. FTA is an umbrella term and aims to bring under a single term the work done in various
future-oriented research fields, including technology forecasting, future studies, foresight,
and innovation studies. These various fields have their own methods and techniques. Across
these fields, various methods and techniques rely at least in part on mathematical models and
computer models. We call decision support through models model-based decision support. The
reason for using models might be understood in light of the rise of Newtonian mechanics and
its success in predicting a wide array of phenomena. This success gave rise to a mechanistic
worldview, according to which the world is like a clock. If the mechanisms of the clock are
known, any future state of the clock can be predicted. Similarly, if the mechanisms underlying a
phenomenon are known, we can predict how this phenomenon will develop in the future. With
the rise of computers, more and more mechanisms can be codified into a model, and more and
more phenomena can be predicted.
Methodology
However, the use of models to make predictions can be seriously misleading if there are
profound uncertainties. The system of planets is a relatively small and isolated system in terms
of components and can be very well observed and its behaviour predicted. However, for many
other phenomena, such as the world’s climate, or systems with social components, the situation
is different. In these cases, there are many components and mechanisms that interact in a
variety of ways, and the system can only partly be observed. The use of predictive models for
such systems is problematic. In their agenda setting paper on FTA, Porter et al. (2004) note
that “there are many irreducible uncertainties inherent in the forces driving toward an unknown
future beyond the short term”. There is a need for model-based support for the design of robust
strategies across this spectrum of irreducible uncertainties. The RAND Corporation developed
a technique called Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) tailored to this (Agusdinata, 2008,
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Bankes, 1993). This paper explores the potential of EMA for FTA. It thus explicitly addresses
one of the FTA challenges of Porter et al. (2004). Particular attention is given to the potential
of EMA in offering decision support for shaping systemic and structural transformation. In this
paper, EMA is illustrated using three cases. These cases differ in application domain, the type
of models used, and the purpose of the study. In this way, together these cases offer a good
overview of what EMA is about, what can be done with it, and what its potential is. Each of the
cases is related to important societal challenges.
The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are
crucial for the sustainable development of all developed and developing societies. There is a
serious threat of future scarcity, with potential disruptive societal consequences. Utilizing an
exploratory system dynamics model, potential pathways for the development of the availability
of minerals and metals are explored across a wide variety of uncertainties, including economic
developments, technological developments in mining and recycling, and market characteristics
such as price elasticity and substitution (Pruyt, 2010). The second case shows how EMA can be
used to develop adaptive plans for guiding airport development. Future uncertainty is increasing
because contextual conditions are less stable, new technical solutions are emerging, and
evaluation criteria are contested (Störmer et al., 2009). EMA offers a suitable approach to explore
the potential implications of these uncertainties and assist in developing a dynamic adaptive
plan. By iterating back and forth between the design of the plan and a model-based exploration
using the computational core of the HARMOS DSS (Wijnen et al., 2008), a dynamic adaptive
plan for the future development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol emerges that is dynamically
robust across the uncertainties. In the third case, we explore plausible transition trajectories for
the Dutch electricity system in the face of uncertainties about institutional change, economic
competitiveness of dominant fuels, emerging technologies, changing end-user preferences, etc.
The consequences of these uncertainties is assessed using an agent-based model (Yücel,
2010) of the Dutch electricity system. The outputs are analysed using various data-mining and
data visualization techniques in order to reveal archetypical transition trajectories and their
conditions for occurring. Policy recommendations are derived from this.
Conclusions
The three cases illustrate clearly the range of applications of EMA and its potential for offering
decision support for decision making under deep uncertainty. The cases also illustrate how
EMA can be combined with quite distinct modelling approaches. In particular, EMA appears to
be promising in helping to realize systemic transformation through its support for the design of
dynamic adaptive policies.
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References
AGUSDINATA, D. B. 2008. Exploratory Modeling and Analysis: A promising method to deal with deep
uncertainty. Ph.D. thesis Ph.D. thesis, Delft University of Technology.
BANKES, S. 1993. Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis. Operations Research, 4, 435-449.
PORTER, A. L., W.B., A., CLAR, G., COATES, J. F., CUHLS, K., CUNNINGHAM, S. W., DUCATEL, K., VAN
DER DUIN, P., GEORGEHIOU, L., GORDON, T., LINDSTONE, H., MARCHAU, V. A. W. J., MASSARI, G.,
MILES, I., MOGEE, M., SALO, A., SCAPOLO, F., SMITS, R. E. H. M. & THISSEN, W. 2004. Technology
Futures Analysis: Twards integration of the field and new methods. Technological Forecasting and Social
Change, 71, 287-303.
PRUYT, E. 2010. Scarcity of Minerals and Metals: A Generic Exploratory System Danamics Model. In: MOON,
T. H. (ed.) The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Seoul, Korea.
STÖRMER, E., TRUFFER, B., DOMINGUEZ, D., GUJER, W., HERLYN, A., HIESSL, H., KASTENHOLZ, H.,
KLINKE, A., MARKARD, J., MAUER, M. & RUEF, A. 2009. The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic
planning: Lessons from Regional Infrastructure Foresight. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76,
1150-1162.
WIJNEN, R. A. A., WALKER, W. E. & KWAKKEL, J. H. 2008. Decision support for airport strategic planning.
Transportation Planning and Technology, 31, 11-34.
YÜCEL, G. 2010. Analyzing Transition Dynamics. PhD, Delft University of Technology.
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Using a Combination of the CommonKADS
and System Dynamics Methodologies to Make
Operational the Transition Between the
Definition of a Joint Innovation Strategy and its
Implementation and Management Sidnei Vieira Marinho
Universidade do Vale do Itajaí (UNIVALI), [email protected]
Cristiano Cagnin
Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS),
[email protected]
Keywords: system dynamics; balanced scorecard; CommonKADS; strategy maps; FTA
thinking; joint strategy definition, implementation and management.
Introduction
The combination of Balanced Scorecard (BSC) with FTA holds the promise to set out a robust,
systematic and systemic process to trigger joint innovation through research which is jointly
funded by involved partners. This process combined with knowledge management approaches
and supported by the CommonKADS methodology enhances the capability of the system to
properly define a shared vision and its translation into a strategic research agenda (SRA) in
order to reach the defined strategic objectives, and to prepare the system for the implementation
of the SRA based on the options at hand and its expected impacts and possible supporting
instruments.
However, most policy and decision makers face a major challenge in making operational the
defined action plan or to implement the defined SRA and monitor its progress, which is critical
to enable the system to become adaptive through time. Even if indicators and the necessary
mechanisms to monitor these are available, policy and decision markers often fail to support and
shape the process towards the defined vision. This happens because they tend to manage static
and linear rather than complex and interdependent systems, and also because of individual’s
inability to become adaptive over time.
Despite advances in the use of strategy maps in the BSC, the latter is reinforced in such
an approach. Here, the communication of strategic objectives is linear and static, since it
Theme 3f: Combining Quantitative And Qualitative Tools
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effectively ignores the circular effects of strategy feedbacks and delays, and also due to the
unfolding unidirectional dimension of BSC. This means that there is no connection between
strategy implementation and the restrictions imposed by the system [1-7] within a changing
environment.
In this context, the use of the System Dynamics (SD) methodology aligned with FTA thinking
help overcoming such a limitation as it supports shaping and monitoring complex and dynamic
systems, thus enabling the system and individuals to become adaptive over time. This helps
policy and decision markets to understand the structures and behaviours of the involved systems
using two types of notation: soft modelling or cause-effect diagrams, and hard modelling or
diagrams of stocks and flows. The qualitative aspect of the methodology is used to identify the
structural characteristics of the system as well as cause-effect relations and feedback structures
present in the behaviour of the system. The quantitative aspect of the methodology represents
the use of the structural cause-effect characteristics of the system to develop a simulation model
to test the system and quantify mathematically its cause-effect relationships.
Methodology
The methodology included a literature review as well as a critical and comparative analysis of
several prospective studies and case examples to build a theoretical framework. The framework
was tested against the objectives and instruments and tools used in these cases in order to
address identified current limitations and gaps in designing, implementing and managing joint
adaptive strategies.
The contribution of aligned SD and FTA thinking in the context of making operational the transition
between the definition of a joint innovation strategy and its implementation and management
relies in the fact that it allows the development of strategic maps that connects the defined
SMART objectives (elaborated using BSC) and related indicators with the circular cause-effect
characteristics of the system. In this way it builds a map that shows how all elements of the
system interact with one another as well as how certain policies and decisions resonate across
the system. This connection takes place not only at firm level, where it enables the connection
of the circular cause-effect characteristics of the system with all dimensions of the business,
but also at the political and macro level since it enables these connections to link with the
various interdependent policies at stake. Moreover, the resulting maps take into account also
the dimension of time, which is critical to enable not only simulations of the system in different
periods of time, but also to adapt the defined policies and strategies along the way as the maps
are updated over time.
Conclusions
Current business maps are able to represent only a few indicators, those distributed in the BSC
perspectives, losing thus the opportunity to consider emergent strategies that are not part of the
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process of strategy development. The use of SD and CommonKADS aligned with FTA thinking,
although requiring a high degree of commitment of an organisation, are able to expand such
perspective and support a change individual behaviour to enable a firm to jointly define with
selected partners an innovation strategy and, most importantly, to implement and manage this
being adaptive to a changing environment.
References
[1] ANTHONY, R. N. GOVINDARAJAN, V. Management Control Systems. McGraw- Hill. 1998.
[2] BUTLER, A. LETZA, S. R. NEALE, B. Linking the balanced scorecard to strategy. Long Range
Planning, v. 30, n. 2, pp. 242-253. 1997.
[3] EPSTEIN, Marc. J. MANZONI, Jean-Francois. Implementing corporate strategy: from tableaux de
bord to Balanced Scorecard. European Management Journal. v. 16, n. 2, pp. 190-203. 1998.
[4] LINARD, Keith. FLEMING, Cherylne. DVORSKY, Lubomir. System dynamics as the link between
corporate vision and key performance indicators. 20th System Dynamics International Conference.
Italy. 2002.
[5] NORREKLIT, Hanne. The balance on the balanced scorecard a critical analysis of some of its
assumptions. Management Accounting Research. v. 11, n. 1, pp. 65-88. Academic Press. 2000.
[6] OTLEY, D. Performance management: a framework for management control systems research.
Management Accounting Research, 10, pp. 363-382, 1999.
[7] RICHMOND, B. A new language for levaraging scorecard-driven learning. Balanced Scorecard
Report. HBS Publishing. 2001
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Text Mining of Information Resources to Inform
Forecasting of Innovation Pathways
Lu Huang1, Ying Guo1, TingTing Ma1, 2, Alan L. Porter2, 3
1
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, P. R. China
2
Technology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA
3
3
Search Technology, Inc., Norcross, GA, USA
E-mails: [email protected]; Ying Guo -- [email protected]; [email protected];
[email protected]
Keywords: Forecasting Innovation Pathways; New & Emerging Science & Technologies;
Tech Mining; Nanotechnology, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells
Introduction
New & Emerging Science & Technologies (“NESTs”) are increasingly being studied by Futureoriented Technology Analysts because of their potentially important “emerging applications”.
1
However, high uncertainty and dynamics of NESTs pose special challenges to traditional
forecasting tools. Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways2 shows
considerable promise to inform technology management and research policy.
We have devised a 4-stage approach to Forecast Innovation Pathways (“FIP”). This integrates
a) heavily empirical “Tech Mining” with b) heavily expert-based Multipath Mapping.
The four FIP stages blend empirical and expert knowledge. Stage 1 -- Technology description
-- combines literature review and informal expert opinion. In Stage 2, we anchor FIP upon
a long-established innovation system modeling framework – Technology Delivery Systems
(TDS). “Tech Mining” of search results from databases such as Web of Science (fundamental
research), EI Compendex (engineering R&D), Derwent World Patent Index, and Factiva
(business-related information) offers rich intelligence along a technological development
vector. Analyzing search results together can identify key organizations, stakeholders, and
influences (e.g., policy, standards). These results can elucidate development trends and help
pose questions on key needs, supports, and hurdles. Stage 3, Forecasting likely innovation
paths, presents the empirically-based findings and TDS model to a diverse set of experts and
stakeholders, usually via a live workshop. Once potential innovation pathways are identified,
further examination of requirements and issues to achieve them helps gauge their feasibility.
This also sets the stage for technology assessment, initially at the workshop, then through
further research and analyses. In Stage 4, scenarios are a prime vehicle for synthesis and
reporting.
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Data and Methods
This paper explores systematization of the FIP analytical approach through applying artificial
intelligence tools to the Tech Mining efforts.3 We now have a set of multi-database NEST
search results; we are working to devise algorithms to help extract key technology components,
significant actors, and potential applications.
This analysis treats DSSC abstract records through 2010 based on searches in three
databases:
•
4104 documents (including 3134 articles) appearing in Web of Science (fundamental
research emphasis)
•
3730 documents from EI Compendex (journal and conference articles)
•
3097 patent families from Derwent World Patent Index
We devise thesauri of identified terms (e.g., technical topics, actors) and text mining
mechanisms to extract nearby phrases. This blend of semantic and syntactic analyses may
help mark and analyse development progression. We illustrate by representing temporal
change patterns for topical emergence and for leading actor engagement and networking.
Results
We have applied FIP to several NESTs to various degrees, including nanobiosensors, deep brain
stimulation, and nano-enhanced solar cells. The paper pursues Future-oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA) results pertaining to dye sensitized solar cell (DSSC) development.
DSSCs reflect a variety of component technologies, with R&D emphases distributed among
them. In one stream of exploration, we are exploring the intersection of advanced dye
formulations (to enhance light energy capture) and semiconductor material advances (to
improve conversion to usable electrical energy). Through basic text mining and semantic/
syntactic analyses, we are working to identify interesting combinations. Once identified,
we then pursue actor analyses and temporal change analyses to identify key players and
development emphases.
Sorting through technical terms is challenging, but is benefiting from expert inputs. We are
working to incorporate such details into our cross-charting procedures to elucidate which key
players (countries and institutions) are pursuing which priorities. That, in turn, should help
array strong candidate innovation pathways.
Implications
This paper extends our Forecasting Innovation Pathways approach.4,5 Earlier papers
suggested ways that particular FTA techniques can contribute to the FIP steps. We are still
refining the approach as we try it out on NEST cases. The variability among NEST situations
and possible decision needs calls for the FIP approach to be considered as very flexible. The
extent of data available, time horizon for innovation, and scope of study all reinforce the need
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to adapt these 10 steps to one’s priorities. We hope that our FIP approach promotes the use
of multiple information resources in conjunction with expert opinion.
References
1
Huang L., Guo Y., Peng Z.C., Porter A.L.,Characterizing a technology development at the stage of early
emerging applications:Nanomaterial-enhanced biosensors,Technol.Anal. Strateg.Manag.,in press.
Robinson, D.K.R. Constructive Technology Assessment of Emerging Nanotechnologies: Experiments in
Interactions.PhD Manuscript,University of Twente,The Netherlands (November 2010).
2
3
Porter, A.L., and Cunningham, S.W., Tech Mining: Exploiting New Technologies for Competitive Advantage,
Wiley, New York, 2005
Robinson, D.K.R., Huang, L., Guo, Y., and Porter, A.L., Forecasting Innovation Pathways for New and
Emerging Science & Technologies, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, under submission.
4
5
Porter, A.L., Guo, Y., Huang, L., and Robinson, D.K.R., Forecasting Innovation Pathways: The Case of
Nano-enhanced Solar Cells, International Conference on Technological Innovation and Competitive Technical
Intelligence, Beijing, December, 2010.
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Combining Quantitative and Qualitative in FTA:
Rediscovery or Something New?
Denis Loveridge¹ & Ozcan Saritas²
¹Honorary Professor, [email protected] ²Research Fellow, Ozcan.Saritas@
manchester.ac.uk
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIOIR) Oxford Road M13 9PL Manchester, UK
Keywords: Foresight, FTA, Methods, Qualitative, Quantitative, combining methods.
Introduction
FTA is said to provide a common umbrella for the foresight, forecasting and technology assessment
research techniques and their respective communities. The direct reference to ‘research techniques’
lays the field open to being one in which every situation is approached through an enforced search for
techniques to fit perceptions of the work in hand. However, Wittgenstein’s dictum that ‘methods pass
the problem by’ needs to be constantly in mind to prevent any FTA becoming simply an exercise in
technique manipulation that prevents any useful outcome. In reality FTA needs to be a multi-themed
hybrid that accommodates whatever principles and mind-sets that are needed by the work in hand; it
is suggested that happens already by default.
FTA’s future orientation means that it deals with matters characterized by uncertainty and ignorance.
To embrace these characteristics FTA’s premises and principles draw on what are commonly believed
to be the metaphors from foresight, forecasting and technology assessment all of which have a long
history and an equally long and growing catalogue of techniques to use in any FTA project. However,
these agreed metaphors are often construed as theory while a parallel search for a philosophical cum
theoretical basis to underlie FTA are pursued outside the cohort of practitioners. None of these feature
overtly in the evolution of FTA even though each and every application makes assumptions about the
underlying validity of the processes used. Indeed it is questionable whether any purpose is served by
deferring to notions of philosophy and theory in a field where practical outcomes based on learning,
thought and numeracy are what matter. However, the practical outcomes are themselves underlain by
complex matters relating to human behaviour, uncertainty and ignorance that are generally subsumed
under the title of subjective opinion in many dimensions; this will be the focus of this paper.
FTA assumes that its processes have an innate capability to deal with dynamic situations made up of
many interconnected themes, each of which is characterized by behavioural traits, uncertain opinions
and ignorance. FTA’s principles must then embrace both quantitative and qualitative information, the
latter in the form of subjective opinion. While the focus of FTA is essentially technology its purpose
should be to set technology in the context of socio-economic matters, ecology, politics and human
values/norms. Quantitative data, before its transformation into information, then plays a role in
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conjunction with the other five constituents that frame the context of any FTA. Much of the perceived
‘certainties’ of quantitative information are arise from and are fraught with the uncertainty of expertise
that needs to embrace substantive knowledge, assessing ability (required to enable interpreting
substantive knowledge into the future) and imagination; a brief taxonomy of quantitative techniques
is developed in relation to their behavioural basis.
Methodology
In considering how subjective opinion invades many aspects of FTA the first step has to be one of
clarification to distinguish between different interpretations of probability based on individuals. The
interpretations are objectivistic (frequentist), personalistic (with regard to propositions) and necessary
(measurement of the extent that a set of propositions ‘of necessity’ confirms the truth of another)
forms of probability. These interpretations of probability are often muddled greatly to the detriment of
the discussion. Whilst these interpretations of probability are based on individuals their aggregation
is possible in some circumstances provided it is remembered that each individual’s opinion is itself
a distribution so that aggregation involves the joining of a set of individual probability distributions.
Because of the way these individual opinions are uncovered subjective probability distributions are
not frequentist in the conventional sense, but are based on elicitation procedures that are common in
risk analysis. Further clarification is needed to remove the confusion that reigns over the use of the
notions of possibility, plausibility and reality. If something is transferred from conceptual to perceptual
space it becomes possible as a mental construct that may remain at a negligible probability for an
indeterminate period of time; this is the basic condition that underlies the notions of ‘over-the-horizon’
scanning, a necessary precursor to any FTA to achieve its future orientation. Plausibility is a matter
of belief, assessed through probability that has its own distribution. Reality is the recognition of the
matter or event in physical space, and will be preceded by its possibility even if it is not recognized
until after the event (in which case it might be called potential possibility as recognition of the reality is
subliminal and due to ignorance).
With the foregoing matters in mind the paper will discuss how expert quantitative and qualitative
information may be joined coherently, as is required by product and policy development, illustrating
this from examples spread over many decades. The paper will suggest conceptual frameworks to
develop understanding systems and situations in time and space through people’s perception of
objective reality; to develop methodological approaches by capturing the uniqueness of systems and
their contexts through observation of objective reality; to improve practices with conceptual modelling
through the personalistic construction of objective reality; to develop policies and put them in practice
to influence situations in desirable directions.
Conclusions
Throughout it will be emphasized FTA cannot deal with ignorance in any form, but that the presence
of ignorance needs to be constantly in mind enabling any FTA to be framed and managed in its
perceived context. Future directions for the evolution of FTA and its methods will also be discussed
together with their implications for the practice of FTA
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Crosscutting Sessions:
Horizon Scanning, Governance,
Health and Energy
Crosscutting Sessions
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On Concepts and Methods in Horizon Scanning:
Lessons from Initiating Policy Dialogues on
Emerging Issues
Effie Amanatidou1, Maurits Butter2, Vicente Carabias3,
Jennifer Cassingena Harper4, Joachim Klerx5, Totti
Könnölä6, Miriam Leis2, Özcan Saritas1, Petra SchaperRinkel5, Victor van Rij7
1
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, [email protected], [email protected]
2
TNO, [email protected], [email protected]
3
4
Malta Council for Science and Technology, [email protected]
5
AIT, [email protected], [email protected]
6
7
JRC-IPTS, [email protected]
Impetu Solutions, [email protected]
Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, Netherlands, [email protected]
Keywords: Early warning, emerging issue, horizon scanning, weak signal.
Introduction
To better prepare policy and decision makers for new and future opportunities and threats, foresight
and other Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) methods are often used to engage stakeholders
in discussions that support the formulation of policy agendas. It is increasingly recognized that further
efforts are needed for sound combination of available FTA methods that sometimes have strikingly
different underlying premises and different communities of practice. There is a need for systematic
mapping and use of horizon scanning techniques that requires also a solid conceptual framework.
This paper draws on the experiences from the European FP7 horizon scanning project ‘Scanning
for Emerging Science and Technology Issues (SESTI)’, in which the authors developed an approach
that deals with how to organise and implement horizon scanning processes effectively to integrate
diverse information needs of policy-makers on emerging issues.
Methodology
The paper describes a conceptual framework that clarifies, for instance, the use of different
concepts such as (weak) early warning signals, wild cards, trends, hypes and emerging
Crosscutting Session: Horizon Scanning
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issues. Building on the conceptual work, novel systematic exploratory and issue centred
scanning approaches have been developed.
Different scanning methods (manual scanning based on the experiences of national horizon scans
and joint online work by use of social networking combined with text-mining of web based sources,
for instance) were applied to identify emerging issues. The identified issues were further discussed
with experts and policy-makers in view of considering their possible impacts on the formulation of
policy agendas, in particular in the fields of cognitive enhancement, energy and health.
Our analysis covers the comparison of efficiency, effectiveness and appropriateness of different
approaches and methods. A specific evaluation framework is applied, addressing the above
criteria drawing upon the needs of both scanning practitioners as well as policy and decision
makers for information about emerging issues. Particular attention is devoted to (hidden) interests
and agendas of different stakeholders who may try to influence their dissemination.
The analysis will identify the advantages and disadvantages of the different scanning approaches
and techniques in relation to efficiency, effectiveness and appropriateness for addressing the
needs of practitioners as well as decision and policy makers. Additionally, difficulties will be
identified in combining the methods and alternative ways will be elaborated of taking advantage
of all of them in horizon scanning activities in best meeting the information needs of policy and
decision makers.
Furthermore, we explore the possible role and involvement of decision-makers to be ready to act
upon the findings of the scanning: What kind of evidence on signals and emerging issues can
be presented and in what format? In how far can decision-makers and other stakeholders be
engaged in the scanning itself to strengthen the commitment to the findings and what are the most
suitable approaches to do that? In this respect, the paper suggests that the selection of the best
combination of scanning methods and approaches for policy engagement is subject to contextual
issues such as objectives, capacities, resources, organisational culture and timeline as well as
content issues like the potential risks and urgency around the topic examined, depth and width of
implications, public awareness and concerns.
Conclusions
Drawing on the experiences from the European FP7 horizon scanning project ‘Scanning for
Emerging Science and Technology Issues (SESTI)’ the authors describe an approach that deals
with how to organise and implement exploratory and issue centred horizon scanning processes
effectively to integrate diverse information needs of policy-makers on emerging issues.
References
Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues (SESTI), FP7 project website: http://www.sesti.info
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Complexity Science Approaches to Disuruptive
Events
Averil Horton
Visiting Fellow, Brunel University Business School, Kingston Lane, Uxbridge, UB8 3PH,
UK [email protected]
Keywords:
Complexity theory, complex adaptive systems, interactions, emergence, policy making,
reframing, neuroscience.
Introduction
Futures techniques are highly pragmatic and have been developed for use initially in commercial
organisations but with little theoretical underpinning or support. In particular, there has been little
work, or understanding on how to actively apply (implement) the results of futures projects.
Much futures work, whilst very interesting and great fun to discuss over dinner, goes unused,
unappreciated, and makes little observable difference. Complexity theory and some recent
neuroscience can provide an underpinning theory for foresight and, most importantly, provide
new insights into methods for applying futures to lead to better decision making and policy
making.
Methodology
A review of selected aspects of complexity theory and exploration of the implications of these
aspects for futures techniques, including some new insights. Examination of recent work on the
inhibitory nature of the two halves of the brain and exploration of how this understanding can
lead to improved futures work and in particular its application.
Assuming that disruptive events can be managed by planning & forecasting is not a workable
option. Instead, policies need to assume that disruptive events will happen, and will be
unexpected, even with the best horizon scanning system in place. Policy development must
take account of methods to work with, and within, complex systems as well as the different
ways in which the brain interprets the world. One particular implication of complexity science for
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futures, the importance of variation, is examined in detail to elucidate the specific policy making
implications, which include the design and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single
policy objective, removing the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies, and seeing
and making linkages with other policies that have similar intent, understanding the resources
or skill-sets required for the deployment of each of these alternative strategies and facilitating
adoption and deployment of these strategies through appropriate policies to minimize risks.
Conclusions
Command and control type approaches to policy making do not work well in complex systems.
The key conclusion for policy makers is that a system cannot be controlled from above –policy
operating in a complex system cannot achieve a specific outcome. Instead policymaking needs
to harness complexity– to deliberately change the structure of a system in order to increase the
relevant measure of performance, and to do so by exploiting an understanding that the system
itself is complex. Policy makers need to watch for, and where possible exploit, the emergent
properties that arise as a system organises itself, and use policy to preserve the conditions in
which the best solutions arise.
References
Robert Axelrod and Michael D. Cohen, Harnessing Complexity: Organizational Implications of a Scientific
Frontier , Jul 2001
Arthur Battram, Navigating Complexity: The Essential Guide to Complexity Theory in Business and
Management, 2000
David Byrne, Complexity Theory and the Social Sciences: An Introduction, 1998
Brian Goodwin, How the Leopard Changed its Spots, 1994
Iain McGilcrhist, The Master and His Emissary, The Divided Bran and the Making of the Western World,
2009
Melanie Mitchell, Complexity: A Guided Tour, 2009
Ilya Prigogine and Isabelle Stengers, Order out of Chaos, May 1989
Darren Swanson and Suruchi Bhadwal, Creating Adaptive Policies: A Guide for Policymaking in an Uncertain
World, 2009
Steven Strogatz, Sync, The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order. 2003
Mitchell Waldrop, Complexity, The Emerging Science
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Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and
Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning
Totti Könnölä1, Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3, Vicente
Carabias3, and Eeva Vilkkumaa2
1
2
3
Impetu Solutions, Madrid (Spain), [email protected]
Aalto University School of Science, Espoo (Finland), [email protected], [email protected]
JRC-IPTS, Seville (Spain), [email protected], [email protected]
Keywords: European Union, foresight, future, grand challenges, horizon scanning.
Introduction
Due to the increasing complexity of modern societies, policy-making institutions face growing
challenges when seeking to address emerging issues in a timely manner. This is particularly
true in policy contexts where the issues are not yet prominent on the policy agenda and where
the requisite actions must be implemented early on to ensure success.
In such contexts, various forms of horizon scanning offer tested approaches for identifying
signals that are portenders of emerging issues. Yet, the mere listing of such signals does
not necessarily support the formulation of policy issues or, more broadly, the development of
coherent policy themes which can be tackled through systemic policies that span several areas
of administrative responsibility.
In general, horizon scanning activities for the shaping of systemic policies involve key questions
such as: i) how to facilitate the recognition of signals and the elaboration of corresponding
policy issues?; ii) how to synthesize such signals and issues into meaningful theme clusters?;
and iii) how to facilitate collective sense-making in the analysis of such theme clusters, in
recognition of the “big picture” of societal change that sets the stage for the development of
policy recommendations?
Methodology
In this paper, we address these three questions in the light of the horizon scanning and
foresight exercise “Facing the Future: Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges” which was
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carried out in 2009 by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) - Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors (BEPA) of the European Commission
(EC). Specifically, this exercise offered fresh perspectives for EC policy-makers by combining
several methodologies. For example, an extensive analytical review of recent future oriented
studies was carried out to distill issues which were assessed by 270 experts in an online
consultation. Then, a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method entitled Robust Portfolio
Modeling (RPM) was employed to facilitate the identification of issues that were seen to merit
particular attention. Moreover, the issues were aggregated to formulate theme clusters which
were discussed at length in a workshop with selected experts and EC policy-makers.
By describing the overall methodology and its uses in fostering policy impacts, this paper
sheds light on the alternative uses of MCDA in horizon scanning activities. For example,
the explication of multiple criteria brought new perspectives into the analysis and synthesis
of issues; however, it also raised questions concerning how the different criteria – such as
novelty, relevance and probability – should be weighted. Here, one of the reasons for adopting
the RPM approach was that this methodology explicitly admits incomplete information about
criterion weights and, by doing so, accommodates different interpretations about which
criterion weights are plausible.
Furthermore, the exercise involved creative and collaborative activities where the experts
were invited to synthesize issues into cross-cutting clusters of themes. The aim of these
activities was to produce encompassing entities which would be easier to make sense of
and which would thus facilitate collective reflection and sense-making. While these activities
were reasonably successful, they also pointed to inherent tensions in such endeavours. For
instance, the enormous number of different combinations of issues implies that any such
synthesis has to be partly based on heuristic sense-making, because it is practically impossible
to explore exhaustively all combinations. Another tension pertains to the ability to formulate
cross-cutting clusters of themes that suggest implementable policy actions. That is, while
such clusters can, at best, be communicated by way of evocative narratives, they may appear
somewhat superficial, because they may not exhibit the same level of rich detail as individual
issues. Moreover, if the clusters of themes involve several ‘administrative silos’, there is a
potential complication of formulating policy actions that transcend prevailing boundaries of
institutional responsibilities.
The substantive results of the exercise have supported the strategy work of BEPA and JRC as
well as the planning activities of the stakeholders who participated in the exercise. For example,
the results have served as one of the inputs for shaping the vision for the EU in 2020 and the
EC Communication on the Innovation Union.
Conclusions
The European foresight exercise “Facing the Future” described in this paper highlights just how
pivotal collective sense-making processes are in horizon scanning. Indeed, these processes
underlie the identification of policy issues that are deemed as relevant; the synthesis of such
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issues into encompassing theme clusters; and the interpretation of these resulting clusters in
terms of policy implications. These inherently subjective processes can benefit considerably
from adequate methodological support, such as the use of multi-criteria decision analysis for
prioritizing issues or the running of collaborative workshops for synthesizing them to shape
policy recommendations as part of a sense-making process in horizon scanning.
References
Boden, M., Cagnin, C., Carabias, V., Haegeman, K., Könnölä, T. (2010). Facing the future: time for the EU
to meet global challenges. 24364 EN, 6/2010. Office for Official Publications of the European Commission,
Luxembourg.
Könnölä, T., Brummer, V. & Salo, A. (2007). Diversity in Foresight: Insights from the Fostering of Innovation
Ideas, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74, 608-626.
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Wild Cards and Weak Signals informing and
shaping the European Research Area (ERA)
Rafael Popper
iKnow Project Director
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIOIR)
Manchester Business School (MBS), The University of Manchester, UK
[email protected]
Keywords: wild cards, weak signals, horizon scanning, foresight, risks, ERA, science,
technology, innovation, policy.
Introduction
This publication is based on preliminary findings of the iKnow research and technology
development (RTD) project. iKnow aims to advance knowledge and the state-of-the-art in
foresight and horizon scanning approaches to events and developments potentially shaping or
shaking the future of science, technology and innovation (STI) in Europe and the world. To do so,
iKnow is primarily (but not only!) concerned with wild cards and weak signals. Wild Cards are
situations of very low ‘perceived probability’ and very high potential impact. They can be classified
into three categories: nature-related events (e.g. the magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Japan on 11
March 2011); unintentional consequences of human actions (such as the 2011 “radioactive
disaster” in Japan, due to decisions to build nuclear facilities capable of withstanding up to
7.0 earthquakes in areas of significant seismic activity); and intended consequences of human
actions (e.g. 9/11 or WikiLeaks release of thousands of US diplomatic cables in November
2010). Weak Signals are past or current developments/issues with (quite often) multiple
interpretations of their origin, meaning or implications. They are unclear observables warning
us about the probability of future events, including wild cards. Weak signals lie in the eye of the
observer, thus practically anything could be interpreted as a weak signal, including strengths and
weaknesses (e.g. failure of social care systems in educating young people); drivers, trends and
challenges (e.g. increasing self-medication); strategies and policies (e.g. growing privatisation
of war; cars banned from city centres); emerging issues (e.g. care communities, US university
offering Lady Gaga sociology course); scenarios, threats and opportunities (e.g. Obama’s goal
of one million e-cars on US streets by 2015); shared visions, megatrends and Grand Challenges
(e.g. growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world); hidden issues including secrets and
“unknowns” (e.g. several Arab leaders urging US to attack Iran) and past wild cards (e.g. 9/11
has suggested that terrorists could have infiltrated US security circles). Finding “relevant” weak
signals is one of the most challenging tasks in futures research and their analysis often leads to
the identification of potential Wild Cards.
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Methodology
iKnow combines horizon scanning and foresight to inform research and technology development
(RTD) policy, particularly in the European Research Area (ERA).
•
Horizon Scanning is a systematic and strategic process of identification, assessment
and (sometimes) management of (commonly) uncertain issues (including emerging
issues, weak signals, prototype/experimental technologies, growing concerns and
research agendas), which may potentially develop into (missed) opportunities,
threats, Grand Challenges, megatrends or wild cards, depending on their ‘perceived
probability’ of occurrence and type of impacts.
•
Foresight is a systematic, participatory, prospective and policy-oriented process,
which, with the support of environmental/horizon scanning approaches, is aimed
to actively engage a wide range of stakeholders into the joint exploration, design
and shaping of technological, economic, environmental, political, social and ethics/
values-related (TEEPSE) futures. In so doing, Foresight involves the interconnection,
generation and evaluation of knowledge gathered and produced in a SMART process,
consisting of: Scoping, Mobilising, Anticipating, Recommending and Transforming.
Overall, iKNOW has mixed (1) evidence-based approaches (literature reviews, environmental
scanning, and horizon scanning); (2) creativity-based approaches (wild cards and weak signals
analysis, science fictioning and essay/briefs/scenario writing); (3) expertise-based approaches
(70+ interviews, expert panels and Delphi surveys); and (4) interaction-based approaches (via
web 2.0 platforms, four national workshops and an international conference).
iKnow developed new concepts and tools to identify and analyse 400+ Wild Cards and 300+
Weak Signals. From these 700+ results, we have selected 120 issues related to 12 thematic
areas: health; agriculture; energy; environment; transport; social sciences and humanities;
space; security; nuclear; and R&D capacities. Around 400 experts assessed these 120 issues
in Delphi survey and key policy impacts and implications are identified and described in this
paper.
Conclusions
This paper demonstrates that it is not only possible but also necessary to use wild cards and
weak signals analysis to inform and shape RTD policy in the European Research Area (ERA).
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References
Ansoff, I. (1975), “Managing Strategic Surprise by Response to Weak Signals”, California Management
Review, 18(2), pp. 21-33.
Cornish, E. (2003), “The Wild Cards in our Future”, The Futurist, 37, pp. 18-22.
Hiltunen, E. (2006) ‘Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change?’, Journal of Future Studies,
11(2), pp. 61-74.
Ilmola, L. and Kuusi, O. (2006), “Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in
corporate decision-making”, Futures, 38(8), pp. 908-924.
Mendonça, S., Cunha, M., Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. (2004), “Wild Cards, Weak Signals and Organizational
Improvisation”, Futures, 36, pp. 201-218.
Popper, R. (2011), Introducing Wild Cards and Weak Signals Analysis into Science, Technology and Innovation
(STI) Policy Formulation, Report produced for the Higher School of Economics, Moscow: HSE.
Popper, R. (2009), Mapping Foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the
future, EFMN, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, European Commission, 126pp.
Popper, R. (2008), ‘Foresight Methodology’, in Georghiou, L., Cassingena H., J., Keenan, M., Miles, I., and
Popper, R., The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Petersen, J.L. (1999), Out of the Blue-How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises, Lanham: Madison Books.
Rockfellow, J. (1994), “Wild Cards: Preparing for the Big One”, The Futurist, 1, pp. 14-19.
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The Impact of Foresight and Forward Looking
Activities in the Governance of Emerging
Technologies: The Case of Nanotechnology
Petra Schaper-Rinkel
AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, [email protected]
Keywords: Governance, Emerging Technologies, Nanotechnology, Foresight, Technology
Assessment.
Introduction
The emerging technologies of the last decades - such as nanotechnology – were seen as means
to archive a variety of goals linked with broader future needs and expectations that are framed
today as major grand challenges. In the case of nanotechnology the direction of innovation
and its implications were especially highly uncertain when the first national nanotechnology
programs were established in the 1990th.
The aim of this paper is to show in a first step which problems/challenges in regard to the
innovation system were addressed and which actors were mainly involved in the future oriented
exercises that were conducted prior to the establishment of national nanotechnology programs.
In the second step the paper will show how goals of sustainability came on the agenda and
which role different future-oriented technology analysis played in different countries.
In many countries FTAs and forward looking exercises were part of early governance processes
that determined how different goals (economic growth, strengthen competitive and locationspecific advantages, innovation towards sustainability) were related and linked, and how
nanotechnology was conceptualized to lead to innovations towards responding to sustainability
as a global challenge.
Methodology
Methodological approach: Analyzing the impact of different types of FTAs and Foresight
exercises in different countries in regard to the governance of nanotechnology.
The paper will focus on four different cases, analysing what kind of FTAs were be used to
shape the technology field (in the early stages) and to influence the national innovation systems
(implementing nanotechnology programs in later stages). There are two main dimensions
Crosscutting Session: Governance
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that are crucial for the specific impact of FTAs and FLAs in the four different countries: The
interrelated dimensions of timing and involved actors.
The first case is Germany where different FTAs used for shaping and defining research and
innovation agendas in different stages. Germany is among the top countries regarding R&D
spending and output indicators (publications and patent applications) worldwide and the German
government implemented funding programs on nanotechnology in the 90th, using in advance
different kind of forward-looking activities to identify the different promising areas of the field, to
define the field, and to assess the market potentials of future nano-applications.
The second case is US, were FTAs were used to address visionary concepts. One example for
‘latecomer’ is the case of Denmark, facing the situation of acting in an international environment
of established funding programs, confronted with the situation that the field was already well
defined and stakeholders of large countries has already defined their research agendas. On
the other hand they integrated the development of nanotechnology in a broader context of
addressing sustainability issues based on an international discussion on the potential of
nanotechnologies and nanosciences for sustainability goals. The fourth case is the Russian
case, were an ambitious nanotechnology initiative became federal law in 2007.
Conclusions
It will be shown, how timing and the involvement of actors (as well as the absence of actors)
have specific impact to archive different goals and challenges addressed.
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Foresight and Policy Modelling on ICT for
Governance: Exploring the Next Frontiers
Gianluca Misuraca
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies (IPTS)
Calle Inca Garcilaso 3 – E41902 Seville, Spain - [email protected]
Pierre Rossel
College of Management of Technology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)
Odyssea – Station 5 – CH 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland - [email protected]
Cristiano Codagnone
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies (IPTS)
Calle Inca Garcilaso 3 – E41902 Seville, Spain - [email protected]
Keywords: Foresight, Policy Modelling, ICT, Governance.
Introduction
Today, society and the economy are more interconnected, unstable, and unpredictable than
ever. Furthermore, developments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are
happening at a very fast pace. Current policymaking strategies and also the ways of procuring
supporting evidence for policy decision making are no longer able to cope with complex,
multidimensional and highly dynamic societal challenges. For more than 60 years, society has
largely failed to eradicate critical social challenges despite investing increasing resources into
state policy activity [Ormerod, 2010]. It appears that policy resistance is responsible for these
failures [Sterman, 2006]. However, we now have at our disposal a radical increase in computing
power along with outstandingly widespread distribution of networked communities. The
possibility of collecting and processing huge amounts of data at moderate costs was unthinkable
only a decade ago. These developments have led to the emergence of futuristic visions, such
as ‘singularity’ which suggests that computers will exceed human cognitive capabilities and
an ‘intelligence explosion’ which could, among other things, prolong and improve quality of life
[Kurzweil, 2005]. However, current tools and approaches for policy design, implementation and
evaluation are ill-suited to capturing this complex and interconnected future. Moreover, they are
based on an abstract and unrealistic vision of the human being: rational (utility maximising),
average (not heterogeneous), atomized (not connected), wise (thinking long-term), often highly
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simplified (complexity denial) and politically committed [Piniewski, Codagnone and Osimo, 2011
forthcoming].
Methodology
This paper is partly based on the results of the research carried out by CROSSROAD, an FP7
Support Action to design the Future Research Roadmap in the domain of ICT for governance
and policy modelling. This Action aimed to provide strategic directions and define a shared
vision, able to inspire collaborative, interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder research. In this
context, a participatory foresight exercise was conducted, which outlined a set of scenarios on
how governance and policy modelling, enhanced by the use of ICT, could develop by 2030. The
scenarios were developed by means of narration of possible future outcomes in selected key
areas of European society where ICT tools for governance and policy modelling could have a
major impact. The scenarios, and their formulation and interpretation, expose current gaps in
research and indicate what needs to be done today to enable better governance and construct
a more open, innovative and inclusive digital Europe tomorrow.
The paper presents the results of the foresight exercise based on scenario design conducted
by the Information Society Unit of IPTS. This exercise aimed to explore possible alternative
futures in ICT for governance and policy modelling research and to elaborate on the possible
impacts that future mainstreaming of ICT tools in this domain could have. The paper thus draws
a framework for analysis of current and future challenges in ICT for governance and policy
modelling and of the resulting implications for citizens, business and public services. The paper
builds on the findings of this research activity, which links diverse research disciplines with
practitioners’ views and policy makers’ concerns through a multi-stakeholder and participatory
approach, and highlights some of the paradoxes of current ICT-enabled societal modelling
efforts. It also addresses the issues of measurement of the Information Society. In doing so, the
paper attempts to link foresight techniques with policy modelling approaches and to assess their
implications for the future Digital Europe 2030.
Conclusions
The paper concludes with a presentation of the policy and research challenges that policy
makers will be confronted with in implementing the Digital Agenda for Europe, which aims
to increase the EU’s growth and competitiveness in the fast-evolving global landscape, and
address today’s grand challenges. Innovation, sustainability, economic recovery and growth will
in fact depend more and more on the ability of policy makers to envision clearly and effectively
both the root causes of complex, globalised issues and their possible solutions. This paper
discusses how integrating the envisioning of future scenarios through foresight with forecasting
possible impacts on society through modelling and simulation can constitute a building block for
next generation policy-making.
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Key References
 European Commission, JRC-IPTS Scientific & Technical Report (2010). Envisioning Digital Europe 2030:
Scenarios for ICT in Future Governance and Policy Modelling. Eds: Misuraca G. and Lusoli, W., EUR
24614 EN / 12/2010
 European Commission, JRC-IPTS Scientific & Technical Report (2011 forthcoming). Using ICT to coproduce better health outcomes: a paradigm shift towards Health 2.0. Piniewski, B., Codagnone, C, and
Osimo, D.
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Strategic Dialogues For Research Policy Making
In Germany
Frauke Lohr, Rainer Rothfuß, Sebastian Hallensleben
Grolman.Result, Eschersheimer Landstraße 223, D-60320 Frankfurt, Germany;
[email protected]
Keywords: Strategic Dialogue, stakeholder involvement, research policy making, dialogue
process, Foresight, BMBF, Hightech Strategy.
Introduction
The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) conducts Foresight and
related strategy processes to support research policy development. In addition, a number of
other activities are oriented towards identifying and analysing areas for future research and
technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of
societal needs defined by the so-called Hightech Strategy.
The success and impact of these activities on the innovation system depend on the participation
of stakeholders inside the BMBF and other federal ministries as well as in academia, industry and
society. We present results of stakeholder involvement through so-called “Strategic Dialogues”
both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their
translation into research policy.
Methodology
Strategic Dialogues aim for a planned and structured involvement of stakeholders using
a combination of tools such as semi-structured interviews and various workshop formats
supported by online tools. Key success factors include (1) a careful selection and engagement of
stakeholders considering their potential contribution, their role in developing research policy, and
their commitment to future activities; (2) consideration of the existing structure of departments
within the Ministry as well as known difficulties in initiating activities across departments; (3)
ensuring relevance and a joint understanding through appropriate presentation and transfer of
results from Foresight and related strategy processes; (4) compatibility with existing strategic
planning activities in individual units within the BMBF.
Strategic Dialogues are tailored to the subject matter as well as the relevant stakeholders
according to their needs. However, there are recurring elements in the context of research
policy development where a Strategic Dialogue is typically initiated by a BMBF unit concerned
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with strategic issues. At the outset, a rough scope is agreed, and BMBF units whose specialist
areas overlap with this scope are identified and join the process. A second step is the generation
of a joint understanding between BMBF units on the thematic content and the goals of the
Strategic Dialogue, where goals can be specific to individual units and tie in with their own
agendas. A possible third step is to generate a pragmatic overview of earlier funding activities,
nationally and internationally, as well as the identification of action areas. This may include
dialogue elements to ensure involvement and commitment of the relevant research community
as well as federal ministries other than the BMBF.
On this basis, the roles and modes of collaboration between BMBF units as well as with external
stakeholders are defined. The Strategic Dialogue results in a generation and translation of a
joint view of the future into prerequisites and recommendations for a coherent research policy
and its implementation through programs and/or dedicated institutional structures.
Strategic Dialogues were e.g. conducted for focus areas from the latest BMBF-Foresight
process, an overview of which is given in a conference paper by Warnke et al. For the focus area
“ProduzierenKonsumieren 2.0” (ProductionConsumption 2.0), the strategic dialogue involved
seven organisational units within the BMBF drawn from the full range of BMBF departments
concerned with research policy. In addition, contact with three other German federal ministries
was established. – In the first phase, the results of the Foresight process were reframed to
pinpoint their relevance to each of the BMBF units and to crystallize a joint understanding of
“ProduzierenKonsumieren 2.0”. – In a second step, a survey of previous funding programmes
showed a need for initiatives to exploit the potential of “ProduzierenKonsumieren 2.0” and the
need to involve communities in academia, industry and society in identifying practical steps
towards addressing the situation. – This wider involvement is currently in progress in phase 3 of
the Strategic Dialogue and is supported by all stakeholders in the BMBF.
Another Strategic Dialogue was conducted for a so-called Forward-looking Project in the frame
work of the Hightech-Strategy. Forward-looking Projects are designed to map out scientific and
technological developments over a period of 10 to 15 years in specific areas, and to communi
cate them to a wide audience. - The Strategic Dialogue resulted in a pragmatic vision for a “CO2neutral, energy-efficient and climate-adapted city” that was developed in a scenario workshop
with a cross-disciplinary panel of 20 experts. Drawing on their assessments of potential econo
mic, social and technological developments, a coherent vision was created that is now a key ele
ment for communicating the Forward-looking Project in the media and for involving the public.
A third example of a successful Strategic Dialogue is the definition of a novel type of innovation
cluster across academia and industry. A range of views on numerous aspects of co-operation
models was collected from selected stakeholders and researched internationally. Key issues
were crystallised in a dialogue process with the BMBF and then addressed in a tightly structured
workshop with about 35 experts. The resulting outline of a possible new type of innovation cluster
has proved to be stable throughout further discussions in various policy-making contexts.
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Conclusions
Strategic Dialogues have proved to be an effective and efficient instrument for achieving the
transfer of results from strategic processes such as Foresight into research policy making. They
trigger and facilitate opinion forming processes within political institutions and involve other
relevant stakeholders in a wide-ranging dialogue to deal with societal challenges.
References
1 BMBF: Web presentation of BMBF-Foresight at www.bmbf-foresight.de
2 BMBF: Results of Future Project „Morgenstadt“ at www.bmbf.de/pubRD/morgenstadt.pdf
3 P. Warnke et al.: Embedding Systemic Priorities into the STI Landscape. Experience from the German
BMBF-Foresight Process, FTA Conference 2011
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Mapping of Future Technology Themes in
Sustainable Energy
Lin, H. C.; Ien, C. H.; Chan, T. Y.
[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]:Science& Technology Policy
Research and Information Center(STPI), National Applied Research Laboratories,106 Taipei, Taiwan
Keywords:Horizon Scanning, Delphi Topics Analysis, International Patent Classification
System, Sustainable Energy.
Introduction
Low carbon society and sustainable energy is one of the grand challenges to humankind and
attracts great international attention. Searching for niches within world-wide technology trends
of sustainable energy where Taiwan could design an appropriate strategy and get a special
opportunity to a leading position in the mid- to long- term becomes a main task for a medium
size country like Taiwan. This paper is related to the use of horizon scanning to identify the
future trends in sustainable energy and the results and experiences from the practice.
Methodology
For mapping of future technology themes in sustainable energy, our research conducted horizon
scanning for Delphi topics in energy fields originated from Japan, South Korea and China
foresight reports and these themes were mapped against internationally accepted technological
field classification cluster based on WIPO patent classification system through text analysis, and
further, the originated/targeted use of technological fields for these future technology themes
were identified through causal analysis and the linkage or interaction there between can be
aggregated and compared .
The mapping results can be utilized by policy makers and foresight practitioners as a strategic
intelligence to identify the possible trends and opportunities in a systemic way. The analysis
provides a more holistic view of future technology development in sustainable energy and the
tendency of interactions among these future technologies. Based on analysis of important
technology themes derived from these countries, vision difference in technology development
was also identified. Therefore, the mapping result provides much more comprehensive
Crosscutting Session: Energy
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information for designing specific science and technology strategy for Taiwan, upon concerning
the historical context in technology cooperation or competition.
Conclusions
According to the mapping result in our research, a horizon scanning for future technology
themes can be easily conducted and analyzed through a standard patent classification system.
It may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight
studies from different countries/regions during the foresight preparatory studies by providing
a consistent classification framework, and the mapping results can be easily aggregated and
demonstrated in a holistic view. Also, after identification of a number of future technology trends,
this classification system further provides the linkage of comparison with current technology
strengths like patent productivity.
References
Crehan P and Cassingena-Harper J (2008) “Technology Foresight in Smaller Countries”, in Georghiou
L,Cassingena-Harper J, Keenan M, Miles I and Popper R (eds.) The Handbook of Technology
Foresight,Cheltenham: Edward Elgar
Martin, Ben R. (1995): Foresight in Science and Technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management,
Vol.7, Nr. 2: 139-168
Meyer M (2008) “The dynamics of Science in a small country: the case of Luxembourg”, Science and Public
Policy, volume 35, number 5, June 2008, pages 361-371
Popper, R. (2009), Mapping Foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the
future, EFMN, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, European Commission, 126pp. ISBN
978-92-79-13110-3. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/efmn-mapping-foresight_
en.pdf
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Backcasting Scenarios For Finland 2050 of Low
Emissions
Sirkka Heinonen and Ville Lauttamäki
Sirkka Heinonen, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Korkeavuorenkatu 25 A 2,
00130 Helsinki, Finland, [email protected]
Ville Lauttamäki, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Rehtorinpellonkatu 3,
20500 Turku, Finland, [email protected]
Keywords: backcasting scenarios, Delphi study, government foresight report, climate and
energy policy
Introduction
The aim of the scenario task for the Finnish government’s futures report on climate and energy
policy was to map out the processes that enable the achievement of a climatically sustainable
emission level while retaining the current standard of living. Those involved in the scenario
process were largely unanimous regarding the sentiment that the desired development, which
would combine these two goals, could be achieved, provided that the existing welfare indicators
are redefined and current procedures and technologies are further developed.
Methodology
Four separate scenarios with a common goal reaching to the year 2050 were constructed:
Scenario A Efficiency Revolution, Scenario B Sustainable Daily Mile, Scenario C Be selfsufficient and Scenario D Technology is the Key. The background factors linking these
scenarios were: significant progress in the renewable energy source technologies,
considerable improvements in energy-efficient housing, a shift to a service-based economy,
and thereof a relative downsizing of heavy industry. The four scenarios were constructed by
using the backcasting approach, looking back to the present from the future state of 2050. For
the purpose of constructing the scenarios and commenting on them, a Delphi study with two
rounds was also conducted. The paths to the future in all four scenarios were presumed to
fulfil the objective of no more than two degree Celsius of global warming as defined by the EU
climate and energy strategy, as well as to achieve the expected cuts in GHG emissions.
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A recurring theme amongst the experts heard during this government foresight process was
sustainable urban and housing planning. The decisions made in these two areas have long-term
consequences and affect energy consumption and emissions in many ways. The scenarios
were aimed at helping define the measures required in Finland to reach the emissions cuts,
as well as to assess the strengths and weaknesses of various alternative measures to reduce
emissions. Some of the means of achieving the climate objectives fall within government’s
responsibility (e.g. climate taxes), whereas other measures depend on the activity of individual
actors (e.g. the development of more efficient logistic processes and services). As a principle
for the climate and energy policy, the government should create clear and credible rules that
support the actualisation of the policy and set the boundaries for companies to plan their future
investments. Failing at that, the actors may be tempted to hold on to traditional technologies
and procedures.
Conclusions
The foresight report on climate and energy policy, which these scenarios are a part of, was
accepted by the government of Finland in October 2009 and submitted to Parliament. The
external and internal evaluation of the foresight process of the government’s futures report and
its scenario work was an interesting continuation. Thus the usability of this kind of foresight work
in policy planning could be enhanced.
References
Government Foresight Report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland Prime
Minister’s Office Publications 30/2009, 192 p. http://www.vnk.fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selontekoj29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate_/pdf/en.pdf.
Lauttamäki, Ville & Heinonen, Sirkka (2010). Vähäisten päästöjen Suomi 2050. Raportti ilmasto- ja
energiapoliittisen tulevaisuusselonteon skenaariotyöstä. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus, Turun yliopisto.
TUTU-e-julkaisuja 8/2010. http://ffrc.utu.fi/julkaisut/e-julkaisuja/eTutu_2010-8.pdf. In Finnish with an English
abstract).
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Book of Abstracts
A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model:
Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Tingting Ma, Alan Porter, Jud Ready, Chen Xu, Lidan Gao,
Wenping Wang, Ying Guo
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, 5 Zhongguancun South
Street, Haidian District, Beijing, China 100081; [email protected]
Technology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta,
GA 30332–0345, USA. [email protected]
Microelectronic & Nanotechnology Technical Working Group,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta,
GA 30332–0826, USA. [email protected]
Keywords: Technology opportunity analysis, patent analysis, dye-sensitized solar cell
Introduction
Identification of technological opportunity contributes to the success or failure of technological
innovation management. The development of high-level technology in China and the other
large developing countries is characterized as “fast-following.” This role places a premium on
carefully assessing technology innovation opportunities to face global competition. To address
this need, I propose an emerging technology opportunity analysis model (Porter and Detampel,
1995) for developing countries. The model draws especially on patent analysis, augmented by
expert opinion, to anticipate and identify technology development opportunities and challenges
for technology innovation.
Methodology
In this research, we devise an opportunity analysis model to find a niche space for the technology
development of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs) in China. Patent data from the Derwent
World Patents Index (DWPI) were used to explore DSSCs technology development and its
trends.
This article introduces four levels of analysis:
 R&D analysis—trying to find some new or valuable research topics through technology
morphological analysis based on keywords (Yoon and Park).
In this model, DSSCs technology is treated as a system that is composed of a number of
subsystems, wherein each subsystem can be shaped in a number of different ways. Any
technical change of subsystem may advance the whole technology system. Based on the
229
Book of Abstracts
principle, a systematic methodology is devised to obtain the various technical keywords
from patents for each subsystem. The further keyword-based morphological analysis
combined with the support of expert opinion is designed to discern 1) what’s the leading
or the most potential technology for each subsystem; 2) Who (countries) focus on what
technologies in these subsystems; and 3) which is more easier to going to a product.
 Competitive analysis—recognizing contemporary/potential competitors and profiling
their development trend and research strengths; meanwhile exploring collaboration
opportunities for China.
In this model, top assignees analysis is introduced to recognize the contemporary
competitors, while active assignees analysis helps to recognize the potential competitors.
This section aims to find out 1) who (organization) are strong or active in specific subfield;
2) which assignees of China are most potential to anticipate in global competition; and 3)
if any national or international collaboration opportunities present themselves for those
potential assignees.
 Market analysis—generating insight and understanding on the contemporary market.
Forecast the potential market by the distribution of family patents in order to identify
market opportunities.
 Strategy analysis—studying government S&T policy by searching government reports
and Internet information to explore the most potential application for China.
This yields a multi-angle model for profiling an emerging technology of interest. In addition to
framing the analyses, the research provides an attractive way of summarizing critical intelligence
about the focal technology.
DSSCs have become the hot research topic because of their high conversion efficiency, low
cost, and easy production as compared to other solar cells. These attributes render DSSCs
a photovoltaic technology particularly well suited for Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV)
applications and for electrification in developing countries. We apply the technology opportunity
analysis model to explore China’s opportunities in DSSCs. The empirical analysis shows that
China has demonstrated a sharp growth in DSSCs since 2006 and faced significant challenges,
but notable opportunities are foreseeable. China’s DSSCs R&D activities mainly take place in
academic institutions and universities, led by Chinese Academic of Sciences (CAS). The major
opportunity lies in continuously seeking and producing new, practical, and efficient organic dyes
to reduce cost and improve the stability of DSSCs. China now mainly focuses on the national
market. A few Taiwanese corporations could potentially develop an international market. Japan
is the biggest competitor but also a potential partner. The most important potential application
for China is to supply power for the needs of remote countryside locations. Seeking international
collaboration and enhancing industrialization by strengthening the linkage between universities/
institutes and other measures present major challenges for China.
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Book of Abstracts
Conclusions
The empirical case analysis supports the effectiveness of the technology opportunity analysis
model. The model supports opportunity analysis from multiple angles. Keyword-based
morphological analysis remedies the weakness of conventional bibliometric analysis when
it enters into analysis at the micro-level. We believe it can adapt well to other emerging
technologies.
References
[1] ALAN L. PORTER and MICHAEL J. DETAMPEL, Technology opportunities analysis, Technological
Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 49, Issue 3, July 1995, Pages 237–255
[2] Byungun Yoon, Yongtae Park, A systematic approach for identifying technology opportunities: Keywordbased morphology analysis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Volume 72, 2005, Pages 145–160
231
232
Book of Abstracts
Linking Foresight to Action:
A Health Case Study
Lois Macklin and Leah Soroka
Lois Macklin, B.Sc., M.A., Ph.D. Principal Business Advisor-Foresight
Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures 250 Karl Clark Road
Edmonton, Alberta Canada, T6N 1E4
[email protected]
Leah Soroka, B.Comm, M.Sc. Director, S&T Foresight and Science Promotion Division
Science Policy Directorate of Health Canada - Holland Cross Tower A, 2nd Floor, 11 Holland Avenue
Ottawa Ontario, Canada, K1A 0K9
[email protected]
Key words: Foresight, Decision Making, Health, Science and Technology.
Introduction
Between December 2009 and March 2011, a major collaborative foresight initiative was
undertaken by the Science and Technology Foresight Policy Division of Health Canada (a
federal government department) and Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures (a provincially
owned research institution). The project (referred to as the Health Foresight Initiative) involved
the implementation of an iterative multi-faceted foresight process to gain new insights and
understanding about science and technology investments that could be taken today, which
would contribute to improving the health of Canadians in a single generation (to 2030).
Methodology
The Health Foresight Initiative was conceptualized and designed to overcome the challenges
related to translating the knowledge and insights gained from foresight activities into tangible
recommendations that result in actionable decisions. Key design considerations for linking
foresight to action included: project leadership, design of the process, designing for engagement,
designing for innovation and designing for communications
Results and Policy impact/implications
Three factors emerged as particularly significant during the Health Foresight Initiativive; (i) the
need to broaden the definition of, and approach to, health and wellness, (ii) the need to recognize
the individual as a full partner in maintaining health and wellness and (iii) the paramount role of
Crosscutting Session: Health
233
Book of Abstracts
digital technologies in improving the health outcomes of Canadians.
Conclusions
This robust foresight project design fostered innovative new ideas and solution sets that are
(at the time of writing) being communicated to broad audiences of health sector decision
makers and stakeholders for consideration.
References
Altshuller, G. (1984). Creativity As an Exact Science: The Theory of the Solution of Inventive Problems. New
York, USA: Gordon and Breach Science Publishing
Brehmer, B. (1992). Dynamic decision making: Human control of complex systems. Acta Psychological, 81,
211-241.
Chermack, T. (2004). Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures, 36, 295-309.
Dorner, D. (1996). The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Failure in Complex Situations. Reading,
MA: Adison-Westly.
Kahane, A. (2004). Solving Tough Problems. (1st ed.) San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler Publishers Inc.
Macklin, L. (2010). Case Study Analysis of the Efficacy of Scenario-based Planning as a Public Policy
Formulation Tool. PhD Thesis: University of Calgary.
Pal, L. (2006). Beyond Policy Analysis: Public Issue Management in Turbulent Times. Toronto, Ontario:
Thompson Nelson
Porter, M & Kramer, M (2011). Creating Shared Value: How to Reinvent Capitalism and Unleash a Wave of
Innovation and Growth. Harvard Business Review, Feb, 62-77.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. New York, New York: Doubleday.
Senge, P. (1990). The Fifth Discipline. (1 ed.) New York, New York: Doubleday.
Slaughter, R. A. (1993). Futures Concepts. Futures, 25, 289-314.
Snowden, D. (2010). Cascading Communication Processes. Cognitive Edge Newsletter [On-line]. Available:
http://www.cognitive-edge.com/newsletter.php
van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. (2nd ed.) Chichester, West Sussex,
England: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Wack, P. (1985). The Gentle Art of Reperceiving. Harvard Business Review, 63, 72-139.
234
Book of Abstracts
Technology Acceptance of Home Care Service
Providers
Susanne Giesecke1, Stefan Nöst2, Dominik Haubner2
1
Austrian Institute of Technology, Department of Foresight & Policy Development,
Donau-City-Str. 1 - 1220 Vienna, Austria,
[email protected]
2
ISO Institut für Sozialforschung und Sozialwirtschaft e. V.,
Saarbrücken, Germany,
Keywords: Technology Acceptance, Demographic Change, Elderly Care, AAL, Services.
Demographic change brings about a lot of challenges to most of the EU countries as the
percentage of the elderly is rising disproportionally. The financial burden and the task to care
for those elderly that will be impaired physically and mentally will have to be taken over by a
decreasing share of young people. Single households – also among the elderly – are on the
rise and working women are less and less willing and capable to fulfill home care of their older
relatives. Only a combination of technological and social innovations paired with new public
policies will be able to cope with these challenges, to guarantee the individual independence
and dignity of the elderly and at the same time keep the costs of elderly care manageable. For
technical innovation, the “Ambient Assisted Living” (AAL) programme at EU level and in various
member states has generated some interesting solutions, offering the elderly the continuation
of their own life style in their individual environment with optimal home care whenever needed.
Most of these solutions still need to be implemented, though. New models of care and new
services, including technical support services, will be needed as well. Quite some research has
been going on concerned with these topics. What is missing, however, is a critical assessment
of the future role of the home care service providers or caregivers.
We can see already that this role is changing. Home care service personnel, e.g. nurses, will
become the major contact points, the nexus, between the elderly and the technology suppliers.
Empirical research has shown that home care service providers are usually the first persons to
be contacted by elderly people or their relatives when new technologies are to be acquired. The
question arises, how service providers who are by definition not game for technologies accept
the technical innovations at their work place and how they will integrate them into the workflow
of elderly care at home.
The study to be presented is one of the first that deals with this question. We have looked at
historical discussions of technology acceptance in general in society. We have also looked at
studies of technology acceptance at the workplace, especially services, and approaching our
235
Book of Abstracts
topic closer we have considered studies of technology acceptance in hospitals where more
research has been done. Finally we have formulated hypotheses and designed an analytical
framework to investigate the acceptance of AAL technologies among home care services.
Our research, which is not completed yet, has already shown that there are different categories
that influence the technology acceptance of caregivers working at the patient’s home. We will
briefly explore those categories, criteria and their further implications in this paper:
Those categories can be structured into four clusters:
1.
Personal criteria: Attitude towards (new) technologies
2.
Technology-related criteria: Benefit of the new technology and usability of the
technology
3.
Societal criteria: Status attached to the technology
4.
Work related criteria: Attitude towards changes at the work place
From our findings we conclude, for example, that caregivers working at the patient’s home will
find themselves increasingly in different roles: they are nurses, (sometimes the only) social
companion, often the first (and only) contact point to the outside world of the patient, contact
point for further and new services and technologies, advisor for purchasing new technologies,
taking care of technologies and controlling them (and sometimes being controlled by them too).
Finally, they might also become instructors for others as they have to explain the usage of new
technologies to the people closer to the patient (relatives, neighbors).
The challenges the care sector is faced with presently and in the near future will change
the profile and portfolio of the caregiver’s activities. More activities will be added and more
specialization will emerge for specific tasks, some of them related to new technologies. Further
qualification and wages to be paid accordingly have to be responses to such developments. A
lot of these issues have not been considered sufficiently yet, not at the sector level by health
care organization, not by unions, and not at the policy level either.
References
Giesecke, S. (2010), Foresight as a new form of political participation and deliberate democracy?, Problemy
Eksploatacji/Maintenance Problems 3/2010, pp. 7-24.
Grunwald, A.: Zur Rolle von Akzeptanz und Akzeptabilität von Technik bei der Bewältigung von
Technikkonflikten. In: Technikfolgenabschätzung – Theorie und Praxis 3/14, pp. 54--60 (2005)
Guston, D. H./ Sarewitz, D.: Real-time Technology Assessment. In: Technology in Society, Ausg.24, pp. 93-109. New York: Elsevier Science Ltd. (2002):
Hülsken-Giessler, Manfred (2010): Technikkompetenzen in der Pflege – Anforderungen im Kontext der
Etablierung neuer Technologien in der Gesundheitsversorgung. In: Pflege & Gesellschaft 15/ 4, pp. 330-352
(2010)
236
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König, W.: Technikakzeptanz in Geschichte und Gegenwart. In: König, W., Landsch, M. (ed.): Kulturtechnik.
Zu ihrer Theorie und Praxis in der modernen Lebenswelt. Peter Lang: Frankfurt/Main, Berlin, pp. 253-275
(1993)
Meyer, S., Schulze, E.: Smart Home für ältere Menschen Handbuch für die Praxis. Berlin. URL: http://www.
agestiftung.ch/uploads/media/Smart_Home.pdf (2008)
Schot, J./ Rip, A.: The Past and the Future of Constructive Technology Assessment. In: Technological
Forecasting and Social Change. 54, pp. 251--268. Elsevier Science Inc.: New York (1997)
Simonis, G.: Sozialverträglichkeit. In: Bröchler, St., Simonis, G., Sundermann, K. (ed.) Handbuch
Technikfolgenabschätzung. Band 1: Berlin, pp. 105—117 (1999)
237
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Book of Abstracts
Between Expectation and Uncertainty: Futures of
Diagnostic Instruments for Alzheimer’s Disease in
Our Aging Society
Yvonne Cuijpers, Ellen Moors, Harro van Lente
Innovation Studies, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development
Utrecht University, [email protected]
Keywords: biomarkers, Alzheimer’s disease, expectations, uncertainties, responsible
innovation.
Introduction
Europe is facing the grand societal challenge of a rapidly aging society and the prevalence of
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) as an increasingly important phenomenon. This challenge has led
to research programs developing diagnostic instruments for AD based on biomarkers, rather
than symptoms. This type of diagnosis promises to create conditions (1) for a more reliable and
earlier diagnosis (2) for effective evaluation of novel medication therapies of AD, and (3) to study
the causes of AD at an earlier stage of the disease process. Scientific and clinical effort, as well
as public funding is being invested in this type of research, focusing on development of imaging
techniques (MRI, PET), and the analysis of Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF).
The promises of early diagnostics of AD are predicated on a particular representation of the
future. Yet, the mere announcement of early diagnostics of AD has already provoked a range
of uncertainties to be articulated, such as concerning the role of insurance, clinical procedures,
the definition of the disease and its patients. Will the improvement of these future instruments
indeed lead to an earlier and more reliable diagnosis? What is the value of being diagnosed
with AD for a patient, when treatment is lacking? Will it contribute to a solution to the societal
problem?
In this paper we argue that there are more futures for diagnostic instruments for AD in an aging
society, and not just one. We will trace these futures, analyze how they are produced by the
interplay of expectations and uncertainties and how they suggest ways to productively relate to
the futures of diagnosing AD.
239
Book of Abstracts
Methodology
Methodologically, we follow three steps. First we analyze how the dynamics of expectations and
the dynamics of uncertainties are conceptually related in the case of AD. Second, we provide
a systematic overview of the current landscape of Alzheimer’s in the Netherlands, including
stakeholders, their interests and the recurrent issues in their interactions, especially concerning
the efforts to realize early diagnosis of AD. This overview is based on desk research, site visits
in clinics and nursing homes and interviews with researchers and policy makers. Finally, we
study the discursive spaces provided by so-called Alzheimer Cafes (ACs), where persons
with dementia and their relatives regularly meet to support each other in group meetings. This
analysis is based on interviews, observations during support group meetings and document
analysis.
The development of early diagnostic instruments is surrounded by huge expectations and
many uncertainties. Both expectations and uncertainties guide actions, provide legitimacy and
set agendas for different stakeholders, thereby creating prospective structures and steering
developments. Our study of the broader AD landscape shows the distinctiveness of the
represented future that propels the efforts to develop early diagnostic instruments based on
biomarkers. This future is definitively not the only one that is articulated or shared by actors in
the AD landscape.
In our empirical study of discursive spaces we follow how actors in ACs discuss dementia
with patients, family, informal care givers and local professionals. ACs provide an informal
ambiance (hence the word ‘café’) to allow people to exchange experiences and talk openly
about dementia. Since different stakeholders meet in this setting, we were able to trace different
conceptualisations of AD, expectations, uncertainties and interests. Within the AC, for example,
a diagnosis of the disease is more than a step in the process to treatment: it is both a verdict and
a sense making tool. Early diagnosis is represented, then, as a means to help people making
sense of what is happening to them (or their family member) and to deal with this in a deliberate
way. Steps towards early diagnosis of AD in the future concern a.o, changing the attitudes
of general practitioners in recognising dementia, and the reduction of the societal taboo and
stigma on AD. Striving for early diagnosis entails more then measuring or imaging biomarkers
in the brain, and biomarkers have a much less central position within these expectations. We
conclude that the study of the discursive space provided by ACs provides a way to gain insight
into the multitude of AD futures.
The existence of multiple futures regarding such a societally grave disease as AD has important
policy implications. Foremost, it is important that policies contribute to responsible innovation
by taking account of the multiple futures, and the concomitant articulated (and contested)
expectations and uncertainties. Research and innovation policy should prevent an early lock-in
into a specific represented future.
240
Book of Abstracts
Conclusions
We conclude in two ways: an assessment of the desirability of the development of early
diagnostic instruments, given the consequences of this promising research on the expectations
and uncertainties of patients and relatives; an assessment of the discursive spaces of Alzheimer
cafes and patient associations as platforms to deliberate the various futures of diagnostic
instruments for an aging society in general and for AD in particular.
241
European Commission
EUR 24804 EN — Joint Research Centre — Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Title: The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (Fta) and
Grand Societal Challenges
Editors: BODEN Mark, CAGNIN Cristiano, CARABIAS Vicente, GOENAGA Xabier,
HAEGEMAN Karel, MARINELLI Elisabetta
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union
2011
EUR — Scientific and Technical Research series — ISSN 1831-9424
ISBN 978-92-79-20118-9
doi:10.2791/58275
Abstract
Following the success of previous years, the International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented
Technology Analysis (FTA) has become a major occasion for FTA experts, practitioners and decisionmakers to bring their ideas and knowledge together in a highly interactive environment.
As with previous FTA events, the 2011 Conference places emphasis on diversity of views by attracting
participants from a wide geographical base. Academics, practitioners as well as public and private
sector decision makers from Europe, North America, Asia, Latin America, Africa and Australasia are
invited to broaden the network and to increase understanding of advances in the field of FTA.
During the conference posters and papers will cover the following themes:
1. Orienting innovation systems towards global challenges and the roles that FTA can play
2. Building FTA capacities for systemic and structural transformations
3. Premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA methods
4. Horizon Scanning, governance, energy, health
This book of abstract gives an overview of all the papers presented in the conference and will serve
as a guide to the participants.
LF-NA-24804-EN-N
The mission of the Joint Research Centre is to provide customer-driven scientific and
technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring
of European Union policies. As a service of the European Commission, the Joint
Research Centre functions as a reference centre of science and technology for the
Union. Close to the policy-making process, it serves the common interest of the Member
States, while being independent of special interests, whether private or national.
FTA and Grand Societal Challenges:
ISBN 978-92-79-20118-9
Institute for Prospective
Technological Studies
9 789279 201189
Seville, Spain
12th – 13th May 2011

The 4th International Seville Conference on Future

Transcription

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