Connected Car 2014 - AutoScout24 - OBD-2
Transcription
Connected Car 2014 - AutoScout24 - OBD-2
Connected Car 2014 Connected Car Business Models – State of the Art and Practical Opportunities http://connectedcar.autoscout24.com © Continental AG Table of contents 1 Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3 Study methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 7 Outcome and use cases . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 9 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Appendix 21 8 Position AutoScout24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Relevance of the Connected Car 6 market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Trends affecting the Connected 7 Car market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Challenges for the development 8 of the Connected Car market . . . . . 2 1 Executive summary The car market is currently undergoing major changes. Stricter regulations, pollution restrictions, more driving assistance and an increasing awareness of safety and security are driving the development of the Connected Car. Furthermore, the expectations of consumers are shifting towards greater connectivity. These changes are giving rise to new business models and opportunities for the entire Connected Car market. This study examines both existing and future business models related to the Connected Car. We interviewed 27 participants from related industries such as car manufacturers, telecommunications and the digital sector. We asked them about the various challenges, trends and business models relating to the Connected Car. The main challenges identified were technical-, business-, and market-related. These include the difference between the automakers and the Internet industry as well as the question of how to monetize the Connected Car. Moreover, there may be conflicts caused by the use of varying platforms in different brands of car. The platforms all need to be compatible with the smartphone used by the driver. This difference accounts for embedded and brought-in solutions. The concern about data security remains. Who has the right to access which data and to who does the data belong? Many use cases require the collection and analysis of car or user data. The Connected Car market still needs to overcome a range of challenges in order to grow. The study identified over 40 potential and existing use cases. After analyzing the trends, challenges and the customer value of the use cases, the conclusions drawn based on the view of AutoScout24 are: • Connected Car Cloud as a driver for the success of the Connected Car • There aren’t any applications with a major value for the customer on the market • A real open source initiative could push the Connected Car market • Used cars could have a major impact on the development of the Connected Car • Consumer needs and problems have not yet been identified extensively AutoScout24 takes part in the identification of customer problems and needs. Being the largest online car marketplace in Europe, the development of the car offers great potential. This study can serve as an overview of possible Connected Car applications and also as an overview of the main trends and challenges in this young growth market for everyone in the industry. 3 2 Introduction © Audi AG Connecting the car to the Internet could lead to major changes in the automobile industry. It introduces the IT business to a traditional industry segment. This new field of business follows different rules and has contrasting characteristics. There are some advantages and also a number of challenges that accompany the introduction of the Connected Car. However, not only carmakers stand to benefit from the development of the Connected Car. The industry is set to undergo a great many changes and see new market entrants within the next few years. These new market participants have the opportunity to expand their businesses and enter the automobile sector. This is especially true for the telecommunications industry and the digital sector. These markets are very consumer-driven. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to identify use cases that provide greater value for the consumer. The results will then be categorized and analyzed. The study begins by explaining the methodology that was applied. This chapter is followed by a description of the relevance of the Connected Car field. The study then analyzes the current trends affecting the Connected Car. We asked 27 market experts to state their opinions and share their insights on this topic. The future of the connected vehicle faces numerous challenges that are described in the chapter prior to the outcome and findings of the study. The use cases will also be mentioned and categorized. Furthermore, these possible applications are evaluated and ranked according to their importance. The study then concludes by outlining the position of AutoScout24 and providing an outlook. OEM Network Provider OEM Network Provider Connected Car Digital Business 4 Digital Business 3 Study methodology AutoScout24 surveyed 27 experts from various industries related to the Connected Car market in Germany. The study was performed from the end of December 2013 until March 2014. During qualitative interview sessions the experts answered open questions with the goal of identifying use cases. The experts work in the following industries: • Car manufacturing 4 • Consulting8 • Telecommunication3 • Tier 1 supply 3 • Car sharing 2 • Information technology 4 • Financial services 3 The questionnaire consisted of basic questions concerning the trends and factors driving the development of the Connected Car. The survey focused on the identification of use cases. Questions concerning customer value made up the third part of the questionnaire. Monetizing the Connected Car played as much of a role as the outlook and further development. In order to identify a trend in the importance of the use cases identified, the experts then received an online questionnaire in which they were asked to evaluate the use cases on a scale from very important to very unimportant. The survey gathered information from 24 expert participants in order to obtain knowledge on the perceived importance of the use cases for the Connected Car market. 2 Financial services 3 Information technology 8 Car manufacturing 3 Car sharing 4 Consulting 3 Tier 1 supply 4 Telecommunication 5 4 Relevance of the Connected Car market Cars are one of the last of very few white spots on the digital map. But now the digital revolution is increasing the connectivity of cars and enhancing the possibilities for being connected at all times. Regulations, for example the eCall, and the growing demand for infotainment are pushing the development of the Connected Car. Entertainment and other functions within the car are rather static, whereas smartphones are accustomed to dealing with real-time data. Due to decreasing prices for technology and data transfer, the car now has the chance to become a mobile device on wheels. This development offers new options for car manufacturers to position themselves in the market. Connected Cars enable carmakers to build and maintain a relevant relationship with their customers. Increasing connectivity is already being seen with the increased numbers of smartphones and greater volumes of global mobile data traffic. Studies predict more than ten billion mobile-connected devices within the next 4 years. This mega-trend is changing customers’ expectations regarding the availability of connectivity. Increasing volumes of data will be collected and data science will create new business opportunities. This forecast has led to many studies stating that all cars will be connected within the next few years. According to a study by MarketsandMarkets the market value for the Connected Car is expected to be close to 100 billion US dollars by 2018. The Connected Car not only impacts carmakers, but also other industries. This trend can be seen in the efforts of companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Google. They are all competing with one another to ensure that their operating systems are fitted in the infotainment units of new cars. 6 The ecosystem includes telecommunications companies, governments, insurance companies, garages, app developers, retailers, and auto suppliers. When talking to these players, they are all aware of the high importance of increasing connectivity. Even though there are estimates for the future potential of the Connected Car market, we can only begin to imagine how the market is likely to develop. New features relating to Connected Cars may well be more relevant to the end customer than, for example, the actual engine technology. The study “The Cars We Want Tomorrow” conducted by AutoScout24 in 2013 indicates the increasing demand for Connected Car features in the near future. According to this study, in particular, end customers expect safety and entertainment features. This will lead to a variety of very important changes from the perspective of the customer with regard to mobility. First of all, mobility itself is becoming more important than actually owning a car. This can be seen especially in bigger cities, which have an increasing number of car-sharing companies. While on the move, consumers expect the same experience and connectivity they have at any other time and place. Greener solutions such as electric mobility greatly depend on connected vehicles. Cars need to charge their batteries, but charging stations have limited capacities. Therefore a solution that shows the availability of charging points at any station would be very helpful. The Connected Car market offers a large number of possible applications with many benefits for consumers. 5 Trends affecting the Connected Car market Connected vehicles are becoming a mainstream phenomenon. The way people connect with their environment has changed radically over the past years. Therefore the experts were asked about the trends they see developing in the field of the Connected Car. This chapter summarizes the four major trends that were identified. They include not just the consumer but also external trends affecting the Connected Car market. Increasing demand for connectivity Cars are expected to offer more and more connectivity features. Today, it might still be a selling proposition to offer certain connectivity services, but in the future these features will be expected as standard equipment. On the one hand there are the consumers who expect connectivity everywhere. On the other hand, regulations and safety laws require cars to be connected. Carmakers can profit from increasing connectivity by providing new after-sales solutions, thereby bolstering customer retention. New car models, such as electric cars, require more connectivity than other vehicles. Their range is limited and charging stations are not yet available everywhere. The availability of charging points necessitates real-time communication in order to meet the need to charge car batteries. “While the e-mobility slowly picks up the speed, another revolution is already in full swing: the digital revolution.” Dieter Zetsche, Vorstandsvorsitzender, Daimler AG Mobile devices are important for the connection Smartphones are a great way of connecting vehicles. First of all, most people use smartphones regularly and are therefore accustomed to greater connectivity. Furthermore, smartphone users have their personal data stored on these devices. A connection between cars and mobile devices is therefore inevitable. Smartphones and other devices need to be compatible with their owners’ vehicles. Therefore, all types of car need to be able to connect with all brands of smartphones. Used cars may rely on smartphones as control devices to operate Connected Car features. Additionally, mobile devices offer the advantage of reducing the amount of hardware required. Autonomous driving is not an immediate goal A self-driving car will become standard at some point in the future. However, it is not the main focus of automakers at the present time. First, many advanced features are being developed to make driving easier, safer, and more convenient. Then new laws and regulations need to be passed in order to pave the way for a self-driving vehicle. Before all these challenges are mastered and cars are ready to drive on their own, customers first need to be made aware of self-driving cars. This necessitates the broad acceptance of consumers. Another factor is car-to-x communication. The infrastructure needs to be able to communicate with the cars on the road. A general system to establish data transmission will be necessary. Laws and regulations influence the future of the Connected Car Safety regulations will affect the Connected Car market in general. The eCall is the first regulation that will immediately have an impact on the connectivity of cars in the European Union. As from 2015, all new cars will be equipped with this feature. Automakers have to bow to these laws and accept them. Taking the eCall as an example to connect all vehicles, the power of regulation is obvious. A car needs to be equipped with a black box to make the eCall work. Driver distraction may well become a topic for governments to regulate what a driver is allowed to do while driving and which actions need to be limited to a non-moving position. Various other government plans may also determine the future of the Connected Car market. 7 6 Challenges for the development of the Connected Car market © Volkswagen AG The increasing use of smartphones, growing urban areas and greater numbers of cars on existing roads – the car industry will be facing a great many challenges going into the future. Connected Cars require a wide range of industries in order to interact with one another. On the one hand, car manufacturers are still responsible for the development of the car itself. On the other hand, they need to open up and work together more closely with telecommunications companies. The Connected Car is therefore causing a paradigm shift within the car industry. This shift is also supported by the changing needs of consumers. Car buyers are becoming older and no longer need to own a car within cities. Furthermore, the car’s specification is no longer the most important criterion. Monetizing the Connected Car Connecting the car will also lead to new costs. But who will pay for these services in the future? How much are consumers willing to pay to connect their vehicles? These questions are as yet unanswered. Firstly, car buyers are used to paying for their vehicles once only. The Connected Car requires a constant Internet connection, which might therefore cost subscription fees. There might be business models similar to the smartphone or a one-time payment when the car or the application is initially purchased. Data and roaming costs also need to be paid in addition to the services used. Difference between automobile manufacturers and Internet industry The lifecycles of automobiles and Internet products, such as smartphones or apps, differ from one another. Cars usually take much longer to develop. A car development lifecycle takes up to five years, whereas operating systems and apps are constantly updated. The Connected Car requires both 8 industries to work together. Updates and upgrades must be applied regularly in order to meet the requirements of end consumers. They will expect the operating systems in their cars to work as well as those in their smartphones. Furthermore, car manufacturers rely on partnerships with mobile network providers to some extent. A stable Internet connection is a prerequisite at all times. Embedded vs. brought-in solutions Embedded connectivity systems are meanwhile fitted in many new cars, whereas used cars are rarely equipped with them. In order to connect them, a brought-in solution is required. The use of interfaces such as OBD2 to connect the car to the smartphone might well be a suitable solution. Generally, cars need to be able to connect to end consumers’ mobile devices using cables, Bluetooth or other technologies, enabling them to fully access the contents of these devices. In order to achieve a high percentage of Connected Cars on the roads, the discrepancy between new and used cars requires a solution. Brought-in solutions may solve this discrepancy. © Volkswagen AG Ownership of cars may change and introduce new ownership models Car manufacturers are aware of the changes in customer behavior. The trend is heading away from owning a car towards the general need for mobility. Many automakers are supporting car-sharing programs in order to fulfill the need of mobility. Traveling from one city to another could then be done by train. When the consumer has arrived in the foreign city, car sharing might well be a suitable option as a way of accessing mobility. Therefore, it is no longer necessary to own a car. Intermodal transport is increasing as a result of new ownership models. This means you have the option to book trains, car-sharing vehicles and other transportation devices in just one accounting process. Smooth transportation options are available without the need to own a car. Data security and ownership of data Connected Cars transmit data to a variety of receivers. These might be mobile devices, automakers, insurance companies and so on. But who has the right to access this data? Carmakers see themselves as the owners, but car buyers want to decide about the use of their data themselves. Who is responsible for the security of the data? Privacy questions may slow down the development of the Connected Car market. The possibilities of analyzing the data transmitted by vehicles have not yet been fully explored. Time will tell which companies are able to set up new business cases and create new business models. ”The expectations of the people towards mobility will change fundamentally.” Dr. Martin Winterkorn, Vorstandsvorsitzender, Volkswagen AG Compatibility between different platforms Currently, each individual car manufacturer develops its own operating system for its vehicles. The carmakers decide which apps will be available for their vehicles. Closed platforms allow them to decide about the level of security and reliability. This, on the other hand, limits the number of applications in each vehicle. The automakers control the developers and therefore regulate the variety of services available. An open platform would allow external developers to create apps for cars. But the cars’ operating systems need to be compatible with one another in order to make the use of apps possible across different models and brands. 9 7 Outcome and use cases © Volkswagen AG The term Connected Car is well known within the automotive business, but not yet among consumers. Therefore the driver of the Connected Car needs to be identified and analyzed. So who are these drivers specifically? Autoscout24 asked the opinion of 27 experts in Germany about which use cases or trends may help to increase awareness regarding the Connected Car. Safety is paramount for consumers. With an average of 5.35 on a scale up to 6, the experts consider safety of great importance to the future of the Connected Car. This opinion is driven by the eCall regulation passed by the European Union. The eCall is an emergency call system designed to help the driver and passengers in the car in case of an accident. Cars will have telematics boxes fitted during manufacturing, which will be set up to make the eCall. The other important categories in the field of Connected Cars are diagnosis and navigation. Infotainment and insurance take a rather less important role in taking the Connected Car to the next level. Importance of identified categories 4 6 5.35 Saftey Diagnosis 5.13 Navigation 5.13 Car sharing 5.08 Remote telematics Infotainment Insurance 4.33 Legende? 10 5 4.92 4.71 © Continental AG Overall, the study resulted in over 40 different use cases relating to the Connected Car. Use cases are possible scenarios for applications. The use cases are sorted by category, but some of them are interrelated. Thus, for instance, the use cases in the field of safety also relate to navigation. The eCall is taken as an example to illustrate the connection between the various categories. In order to make an eCall, the vehicle must be fitted with a telematics box, GPS tracking, and a SIM card, thereby creating the basic technology required for other possible applications. Tracking of one’s vehicle or geo-fencing use cases may then be established. Furthermore, a person’s driving behavior can be analyzed by means of the extracted data, which may then be taken to determine usage-based insurance premiums or to optimize one’s own driving behavior. This leads to the finding that a combination of different applications is very much possible and may even be desired. If an application meets the same basic requirements, such as technological standards, it offers the possibility to use the same standard for a number of use cases. This becomes even more important when looking at used cars. An external telematics box or OBD2 dongles might be necessary to connect the vehicle. Therefore a standard for an app store or similar may allow the introduction of various use cases from different categories. “Market participants other than the OEMs are able to access car data through the OBD-2 interface. This allows many new use cases and benefits for the driver and car owner.” Thomas Girod, Sales Manager Automotive, Vodafone GmbH Top 10 use cases 1. Live traffic information (5.83) 2. eCall (5.46) 3. Accident prevention (M2M communication) (5.46) 4. Self-diagnosis including data cloud (5.43) 5. Intermodal route planning (5.25) 6. Intelligent parking – showing the availability of parking spots (5.13) 7. Wrong-way driver warning (5.09) 8. Usage-based insurance (5.08) 9. WLAN in the car (5.04) 10. Synchronization of playlists (5.00) 11 Navigation • Live traffic information • Points of interest displayed in the car • Finding parked car • Intelligent parking - pinpointing available parking spots • Counterevidence for speeding tickets • Areally/ timely extension of navigation area • Booking of parking spots in advance • Intermodal route planning • Automatic traffic sign recognition • Locally based information about events • Offers of available parking spots • Electronic logbook Safety • eCall • Wrong-way driver warning • Prevention of accidents (M2M communication) • Health check of driver Infotainment • WLAN in the car Remote telematics • Purchasing and downloading music • Entertainment streaming into the car’s displays • Remote control • Stolen vehicle recovery • Surveillance of the car • Analyzing driving behavior/ optimizing fuel efficiency • Synchronization via the airwaves • SMS messages - reading and sending • Spotify and Internet radio • Location-based ads • Business functions such as calendars, address books • Social networking in the car • Location-sharing and tracking of friends 12 Insurance • Usage-based insurance • Combined insurance services (e.g. bCall) • Cross-selling offers Diagnose • Self-diagnosis including data cloud • Used car check Car sharing • Ad hoc carpooling • Combined booking of cars and parking spots • Private car sharing without physically exchanging keys Other • Reminder of forgotten mobile devices in the car • Mobile payment of car tolls • Concierge services • Automatic information on delays • Location-based memory function • Leasing rate based on driving behavior • Current car residual value sent to the consumer 13 “The car will become a sensor cloud. The data is important and may help to enhance driving for everyone. This could include traffic, street conditions, etc.” Dr. Michael Dinkel, Head of Software Integration, Elektrobit Automotive GmbH Live traffic information Real-time traffic information is a service that shows current conditions on the roads, including traffic jams and construction sites. Radio stations, navigation systems, and the Internet are possible sources for retrieving real-time traffic information. The information is gathered from the police, automobile clubs, and sensors on and nearby roads as well as from floating data. The latter data source then becomes increasingly interesting. Floating data can be collected from smartphones and cars. For drivers and their passengers, this use case offers a variety of specific benefits. First of all, live traffic informs drivers about the current traffic situation along the planned route, allowing them to make detours if necessary and be aware of possible delays along the way. This could save time and have a positive impact on the well-being of the driver. The highly accurate information it provides could lead to stress reduction. It therefore becomes possible to avoid traffic jams without having to rely on traffic reports from the radio. Furthermore, Live Traffic usually includes radar warnings. The driver therefore always knows where speeding is inadvisable. eCall eCall stands for emergency call. It is an automatic emergency call system that contacts emergency services via the emergency telephone number automatically in case of an accident. They then send rescuers to the place of the accident. The car sends basic data such as the time the accident occurred, driving direction, car and service provider ID as well as whether the eCall has been triggered automatically or manually. Furthermore, it is possible to send data from the safety system on board the car. These include the number of passengers, whether the seat belts were fastened and the intensity of the accident. In every case the emergency call center tries to contact the integrated phone in the car to talk to the driver or passengers. This use case offers great value in terms of safety. When car accidents happen, minutes can decide between life and death. Therefore the eCall may reduce the road toll and help to reduce the incidence of major injuries occurring due to car accidents. Particularly the damage caused by accidents that happen at night on streets with little traffic can be greatly reduced with the help of the eCall. Sending the GPS position and the driving direction enables vehicles to be recovered more quickly. This saves time in cases of accidents that do not result in serious injury. The amount of time saved could be as high as 50% in rural and 40% in urban areas. 14 Prevention of accidents (M2M communication) This use case describes the general M2M communication. Therefore it is not just a specific car-to-car communication aspect, but also offers many other possibilities. Generally, it enables cars to communicate with other vehicles or even mobile devices. Two specific examples will explain this use case. A car has broken down immediately after a corner and is hidden from view. The following car receives the information that the car in front has broken down and therefore notifies the driver to slow down to prevent a collision. M2M communication includes more than car-tocar capabilities. It could be developed further to establish car-to-mobile device communication. Especially during the night or in other difficult driving conditions, this type of communication could inform drivers that people are walking on the street or are even running towards the street. “Connected Cars can increase the safety on the streets by far. This can even go as far as seeing cars communicating with mobile devices to prevent accidents with pedestrians.“ Wilko S. Wolters, Practice Leader, Ingenieurskunst GmbH Self-diagnosis including data cloud Car owners can self-diagnose their vehicles using interfaces such as OBD2. Instead of depending on repair shops or garages, it is possible to diagnose the electronic condition of the car. The analyzed data can be read in an app or sent to a repair shop of the driver’s choice. Therefore the car can be monitored and major damage can be prevented before it occurs. The data can be stored in the Connected Car Cloud and then made available for further analysis. Knowing which problems your car has or what might break down in the near future can have a major impact on the amount of money spent on repairs. The automatic notification of repair shops allows a vehicle to be constantly monitored. Therefore drivers no longer need to worry about the condition of their cars. They can rely on the repair shop to contact them in case of damage. It is also important to immediately know the reasons that caused the problem, which reduces stress in case of car trouble. Intermodal route planning Increased connectivity also makes it possible to provide the driver with itineraries that include several modes of transport. The following example demonstrates this type of travel planning. A person leaves home to travel to the local train station, which requires public transport. Then this person takes a train to travel to another city. After arriving at the destination, a car-sharing vehicle is needed to reach the final destination. When the person enters the car, the navigation system could receive data from a mobile device to set the address of the final destination. If the final destination cannot be reached by car, the vehicle’s navigation system could send the remaining route to the traveler’s mobile device. Public transport, trains, and car sharing are booked and displayed in one single route planning. This use case may go as far as including the automatic rebooking of modes of transport if the traveler is running late any time during his journey. Intelligent parking – pinpointing available parking spots Parking spots have become rare in bigger cities. Therefore it might be an option to show the availability of parking spots directly in the car. This means that if the desired parking areas are occupied, the car’s navigation system will guide the driver to the closest available parking spot. Furthermore, whenever a car leaves, this specific parking spot needs to be shown as available to other drivers. Therefore cars need to communicate with each other to share their location anonymously. Connected Cars are able to send data to each other. This requires a very high number of Connected Cars in order to make this use case possible. Another possibility might be the development of the infrastructure to show the availability of parking. This has the major advantage of being independent of the parked cars’ connectivity. Wrong-way driver warning There are two possibilities for this use case. On the one hand there are cars that enter a highway going the wrong way. They could receive alerts and warnings on their displays and possibly even instructions on how to behave correctly after being on the wrong road. On the other hand it might be possible to warn other drivers. This means that as soon as someone is driving the wrong way, the car transmits warnings to any cars that might be affected and exposed to danger. Then the other drivers receive alerts on their head-up displays. Increased safety and fewer accidents may occur from implementing this use case. Usage-based insurance Pay as you drive (PAYD) and pay how you drive (PHYD) are parts of the usage-based insurance scheme. This type of automobile insurance calculates its costs based on the vehicle type and its actual driving record. Factors such as time, place, and distance are measured. They add up to the driving behavior that serves as the basis for the insurance premium. The difference to traditional car insurance is the consideration of driving skills. The safer the driver is, the less he or she needs to pay for their coverage. If car owners choose this type of insurance, they will be evaluated concerning how, when, and where they drive. The most important value for customers is the potential to reduce the cost of their insurance policies. The better the driver, the less he needs to pay. This might be interesting especially for young drivers who need to pay a lot at the beginning of their driving careers. They might reduce their rates by adopting safer driving behavior. This encourages a fair evaluation of policy rates and might well benefit the low-risk drivers. Consumers now have the option to select between different insurance types instead of relying on the standard premium. Drivers are able to improve their driving habits and even compare the results to their family and friends because of the tracking device. WLAN in the car The car provides a WLAN connection for the driver and the passengers. This allows various devices such as notebooks, tablets, or smartphones to connect to the network and use the Internet for working, streaming, or other purposes. This use case offers a specific value for the customer. Traveling and business trips may require access to a WLAN connection. On business trips it is possible to connect all devices such as tablets, smartphones, and notebooks to the WLAN and thereby reduce the number of separate SIM cards or WLAN sticks required. This use case also offers another benefit while traveling. The WLAN allows the streaming of movies, songs, and other activities such as checking e-mails or connecting to social networks. “Car data allows an electronic profile of each car. This could be a health insurance file for the vehicle including user data, driving behavior, amount of driven kilometers and so on…” Andreas Bucholz, CEO, conexas GmbH Synchronization via the airwaves This use case provides for a wireless connection between the car and the home computer, smartphone, and other online services. Therefore play lists could be synchronized with the car, which means that your favorite music you listen to at home could be automatically streamed into your vehicle. Furthermore calendars, notes, and address books could be synchronized with the car, allowing passengers to use these functions while in the car. According to the experts, the personalization of the car is the key value. One expert gave the example of a shared car. If a husband and wife share a car, they should easily be able to set up their calendar, notes and favorite music within the car. Furthermore, it is entirely up to the driver or passenger to decide which music he or she wants to listen to. In the following, the top 3 use cases are displayed for each category. The results are ranked according to the evaluation of the experts. The explanations for each use case can be found in the appendix of this study. 15 © Volkswagen AG Top 3 use cases: Remote telematics Top 3 use cases: Diagnosis • Stolen vehicle recovery (4.88) • Remote control (4.70) • Fuel efficiency analysis (4.67) • Self-diagnosis (5.43) • Automatic data transfer to repair shops (5.13) • Check-up of used cars (4.65) Use cases in the field of remote telematics are not the main factors driving the Connected Car market. However, overall, remote telematics is ranked in the middle of the available categories, just below car sharing. The experts mentioned five use cases and evaluated them all with a lesser importance than other categories. The other two use cases are the analysis of driving behavior and the surveillance of the car if, for example, children take the car unasked. Diagnosis is considered the second most important factor driving the Connected Car market. There are already some applications on the market that allow car owners to check the electrical status of their cars. Major breakdowns may therefore be prevented due to early detection of problems in the car. The ability to check one’s car could lead to further uses for this application. One day, it may even be possible to make a full car inspection of a used car before buying it. Top 3 use cases: Infotainment Top 3 use cases: Insurance • WLAN in the car (5.04) • Synchronizing play lists (iTunes etc) (5.00) • Spotify and Internet radio in the car (4.92) The results of the infotainment use cases are surprising, as infotainment is ranked low compared to the other categories. The respective use cases are evaluated higher. Two infotainment use cases are ranked among the top ten use cases. Other possible applications include entertainment streaming, social networking, location sharing, business functions, and voice control for messaging services. „Augmented Reality offers so many new benefits to the Entertainment applications of the car. Just imagine if you travel and always know where your favorite music is played. Information about live concerts or bars and clubs may be sent into the your car and based on your location and the music you listen to in the car.” Steffen Holly, Head of Media Management & Delivery, Fraunhofer IDMT 16 • Pay-as-you-drive (5.08) • Additional services (e.g. bCall) (4.63) • Cross-selling of insurance policies (3.96) The Connected Car offers new business models for insurance companies. Besides being able to introduce new policies based on driving behavior, they can also offer additional services. Some insurers offer breakdown calls or other services in addition to their regular policies. If a telematics box is installed in the car, they may either find use cases concerning the data or create cross-selling opportunities. © Audi AG Top 3 use cases: Navigation Top 3 use cases: Car sharing • Live traffic information (5.83) • Intermodal route planning (5.25) • Intelligent parking – showing the availability of parking spots (5.13) • Ad hoc car-pooling (4.83) • Combined booking of cars and parking (4.78) • Private car sharing without physical key exchange (4.58) Navigation has been considered a major driver of the Connected Car market. The importance of navigation applications can be seen when looking at the top ten use cases. The top three use cases displayed above are all ranked among the top ten use cases overall. Other use cases, such as locally based information, electronic logbooks, the finding of a parked car, or point-of-interest information are also included in the navigation category. Car sharing may greatly benefit from Connected Cars. Being able to pick up people along the road may be an interesting concept for car-pooling companies. Car sharing tends to increase their field of operation, especially in bigger cities. Therefore new concepts such as the combined booking of a vehicle and a parking spot may become possible. Concerning private car sharing, a Connected Car provides the option to rent cars out the same way as car-sharing companies. “The eCall is certainly an important step towards the Connected Car, but there will be also other drivers to force connectivity onto the market. These definitely include driving data related use cases.” Thomas Becher, VP Business Development, TomTom Telematics Top 3 use cases: Safety • eCall (5.46) • Prevention of accidents (M2M communication) (5.46) • Warning of wrong-way driver (5.09) As the most important factor of the Connected Car, safety has a few very important use cases. Besides the well-known eCall, the safety applications offer enhancements for the driver and other road users. Other use cases in this field are a digital driver control and a health check for the driver. The last mentioned possible application checks the health status of the driver and monitors, for example, the blood sugar level. Top 3 use cases: Other • Mobile payment toll (4.74) • Leasing rate based on driving behavior (4.30) • Location-based memory function (4.22) Some use cases simply do not fit into the chosen categories. In general, these are rather unpopular and ranked at a low level. The use cases may become interesting at some point, but are not among the main topics of focus today. Further possible applications include the sending of the current car residual value to the owner of a car. Another future option is to remind drivers if they have forgotten any mobile devices in the car. 17 8 Position AutoScout24 © AutoScout24 GmbH As we have seen, there are a great number of relevant use cases for the Connected Car. As a very important player in the used car sector and operating an online garage marketplace, AutoScout24 plans on taking part in the Connected Car market. AutoScout24 therefore draws the following conclusions: Connected Car Cloud as a driver for the success of the Connected Car Smartphones have changed the way consumers interact with their environment. A Connected Car Cloud offers new opportunities for both drivers and passengers, including access to information and navigation as well as entertainment. An onboard system or an after-sale solution is required to handle data. The data may be sent to car manufacturers or other service providers. A cloud offers drivers and passengers access to apps for navigation, infotainment, or other information either with an embedded system or a retrofit device. 18 There aren’t any applications with a major value for the customer on the market Overall, the survey showed that there is uncertainty about the future development of the Connected Car market. Cars will become more and more connected and will be available with new functions. Today there isn’t one particular use case or idea that would immediately boost the popularity of the Connected Car. There are numerous applications and functions available when purchasing a new car, especially in the premium segment. But all of these show only minor enhancements for driving and the car itself. Connecting used cars requires a mobile device. These vehicles aren’t equipped with telematics boxes to connect themselves. Therefore a retrofit solution is required. Even if there are applications that offer an enormous potential, they do not reach most cars. Real Open Source offers more diversity for the Connected Car market The best solution in order to push the Connected Car market and increase customer awareness would be an open platform and a real open source concept. This would allow all-in-one solutions for both new and used cars. Instead of the walled garden solutions on the market today, creating an open platform offers more scope for individualization. This leads to a greater chance of reaching a broader market than relying only on solutions created by car manufacturers. However, car manufacturers are not likely to open their businesses in the foreseeable future. Telecommunications and Internet companies are forcing their businesses towards the car market. The first step in this direction has been taken with the establishment of the Open Automotive Alliance and other alliances between car manufacturers and companies such as Google and Apple. An open platform enables external developers to create applications and functions for a variety of vehicle brands. There are many advantages if real open source becomes the standard in cars. This is especially true for the used car market. Even after buying a used car, functions related to the use cases previously mentioned can be set up in the car individually. Overall, this study displayed the wish and maybe even the need for an open platform. Used cars have a major impact on the development of the Connected Car The used car market is playing an important role in the development of cars. If cars tend to be more than 10 years on the street, than even if the eCall remains mandatory for any new car in 2015, it will take until 2025 before nearly all cars are connected for eCall. So for most people who own and buy used cars, it won’t be before the end of the decade until the broad awareness of Connected Cars is raised among them. Furthermore, they will miss many of the latest functions available only for new cars. This isn’t very different from earlier times, but in the specific case of the Connected Car, where machine-to-machine communication will take place, it has a great impact on the cars on the street. If every car transmits data, e.g. for crash protection and other safety reasons, an older car without the relevant functions will not take part in the communication process. Therefore the safety issue cannot be solved completely and the developments of such features need to take used cars into account. The challenge of connecting almost every car may also be solved with retrofit solutions. AutoScout24, for example, offers an OBD2 solution to make the connection possible. Consumer needs and problems are not yet identified This study showed the expectations of the key market players and what they expect the consumers to be interested in. Most of the use cases discovered offer some value and benefit to drivers and passengers. However, a key question remains: What exactly does the consumer want? It might be diagnosis, increased safety, or infotainment features. Safety is often mentioned as very important in consumer studies, but potential customers are usually not willing to pay a higher price for more safety features such as the eCall. Therefore the question still remains unanswered: What is the customer willing to pay for and how much? As soon as actual customer needs are identified, the Connected Car market will boost itself. The answers to these questions are even more difficult today, due to an obvious change in consumer behavior. Car buyers become older when they purchase new cars and owning a car is no longer as important as it used to be. 19 9 Summary © Daimler AG Despite the challenges and possible risks concerning the Connected Car, it will play a major role in the future of the car in general. All experts agree on the importance of increasing connectivity. Automakers need to develop global solutions and open themselves to other market participants in order to push the Connected Car. Applications need to be set up for upgrades and updates. This may be another challenge for carmakers, specifically because they were used to developing their products in longer cycles than the digital market. Furthermore, the connectivity of a vehicle is already achievable by means of mobile devices. Many people who own smartphones or other devices can make their vehicle “connected,” but to set up valuable applications, the capability to extract vehicle data is required. This is necessary for diagnosis, tracking, analyzing driving behavior, and so on. Connectivity requires consistent service. This means that the infrastructure needs to be enhanced in order to offer service and network access everywhere. This study covered over 40 use cases and possible applications concerning the Connected Car. Many of them are likely to be available in the near future. Some will need to be available in every car in order to comply with regulations and others may become available as add-ons or in app stores. In order to set up app stores, standards need to be established. It remains to be seen whether the initiative comes from the carmakers or from alliances with companies such as Apple, Google, or Microsoft. The monetizing of the Connected Car remains a challenge. Who is going to pay for these services? 20 Who will pay for the mobile data? These questions are still unanswered and there are numerous options to answer them. Laws abandoning high mobile roaming costs in the European Union, for example, certainly give this topic a boost. By 2016, cars will be able to connect in European countries at the same cost as in Germany, for example. Consumers are changing their buying behavior and the average buyer is getting older. So what are the future criteria for buying a car? Is it still the brand or the power of the engine? These factors may certainly play a role when making a buying decision, but connectivity may also be an important factor as well, along with user-friendliness. The features the Connected Car offers need to be easily accessible in a straightforward way. The human-machine interface therefore needs to be optimized, which could include touchscreens with new functions or other solutions. One possibility could be voice control. Which of these options will become standard remains to be seen. To conclude this study it should be mentioned that awareness of the Connected Car is very high among the key players. This is true of the carmakers, the telecommunications industry and all of the other participants. New entries are also likely to launch themselves onto the Connected Car market. Their strategies will be adapted to take part in this market. New mobility concepts and intermodal route planning will enhance the way we travel. A high degree of vehicle connectivity is required to establish these new models. The future of mobility is the Connected Car. Appendix Remote control Smartphones could well be used as tools to remotely control one’s car. It is possible to lock and unlock the vehicle as well to start the engine by means of an app. Furthermore, sounding the horn or flashing the lights may become possible via remote control. In comparison to existing remote controls, an app and a vehicle being connected via the Internet, these features would be accessible from all over the world. Stolen vehicle recovery Tracking the vehicle and being able to recover a car after it has been stolen is an interesting use case. In the era of the Connected Car, it will be possible to track down the current position of the vehicle and then to slow it down until it comes to a complete standstill. The number of stolen vehicles is likely to decrease greatly once every car is equipped with a system of this type. It is already common in Southern Europe, the USA, and South Africa. There are many privately owned companies offering this service. Surveillance of the car Drivers can track their vehicles at any time, enabling them to know where their car is and how fast it is traveling. For instance, if parents lend their vehicle to their children, who may have only recently received their driver’s license, the parents are able to set geo fences, restricting the area in which the children are allowed to drive. If they pass the invisible geo border, the car owner can be notified. This is also possible concerning specific speed limits that can be set up individually. Analyzing driving behavior/optimizing fuel efficiency Increasing gas prices also increase the cost of owning a car. Therefore it might be helpful to adjust one’s driving behavior. The car can record the style of driving in terms of braking, accelerating and the distance traveled. This use case could be interpreted as a kind of driving coach. It may even give real-time feedback to the driver as a method of instant learning. However, improved driving behavior is not just about saving fuel. It is also helpful to lower maintenance costs, e.g. for brakes, suspension, or transmission. The necessary data can be retrieved using the CAN network or the OBD2 interface. Purchasing and downloading music This use case goes further than merely synchronizing play lists with the car. Music stores may find their way into the car and no longer be available only on computers and mobile devices. This innovation would allow the driver to search for music to purchase while in the car and download the desired music. Entertainment streaming into the car’s displays Movies, songs, or other entertainment features could be streamed into the car’s displays. Using mobile devices to stream movies to the head-up display may be dangerous due to driver distraction, but if the car is equipped with rear seat entertainment systems, this use case makes it possible to stream movies for the back seat passengers, transforming the car into an entertainment cloud connected to any mobile device. 21 © Volkswagen AG SMS messages – reading and sending Voice control would make it possible to use messaging services while driving. The car would be able to receive and send messages. This capability would be possible if the car connects to the mobile device and functions as an extension of it, or if the car is set up with a SIM card that has the same specifications and number as the cars used in the mobile device. Then the car could be used for messaging. Spotify and Internet radio A Connected Car can stream data while on the move. The only requirements are a stable Internet connection and a telematics system with the corresponding applications. An existing Spotify account could then be used not just at home or with a smartphone but also in the car. The driver would then have a larger variety to select his or her favorite music. Location-based ads Corporations could send advertisements directly to the car. This could be achieved by setting up geo fences around a specific place or store. The Connected Car would then offer a variety of new advertisement options for companies. For example, if the driver is getting closer to a fast-food restaurant, he or she would receive a coupon for that particular restaurant on the head-up display of the car. 22 Business functions such as calendars, address books The car could become a second mobile device or personal assistant. A Connected Car Cloud, for example, would make it possible to connect the car with one’s computer and mobile devices. The data stored on these devices would then be automatically transferred to the car. For people working in sales or other jobs requiring a lot of traveling it might be helpful to have access to this information at all times. Social networking in the car This use case is nothing more than Facebook in the car. It creates access to social networks while in the car. The need for social network access in the car is questionable and doesn’t necessarily add much value to the Connected Car. Location-sharing and tracking of friends It might be interesting to know where your friends are and if they are in the area near you. The use of GPS location technology in the car could interact either with smartphones or by itself to send the driver an alert when friends are within a predefined radius. It would also allow others to see where you are driving and possibly even how one is driving, which might be an attention-grabbing feature. This use case is comparable to a running app for smartphones. Points of interest displayed in the car Based on fuel level or other factors, the car could show nearby gas stations or similar places in the head-up unit. The car could recognize how long the driver has been behind the wheel and therefore motivate the people in the car to stop for a break at a nearby cafe. The vehicle monitors basic things such as tire pressure or fuel level and the duration of driving and gives advice concerning point of interests close to the car. Finding parked car The car automatically sends its GPS location to an app installed on the driver’s mobile device. Especially when the car is parked in unknown areas or bigger cities it might be helpful to remember where the vehicle is parked. The app then guides the driver to the parking spot. Counterevidence for speeding tickets If the driver is able to track his or her speed at any time, this data may be used as counterevidence if stopped by the police. Then both sides have evidence to settle the case. The two measurement options may also help to calm the situation if the driver is confronted with speeding accusations. Automatic traffic sign recognition There are already a few cars on the market that can detect traffic signs. Most of these cars use cameras to analyze the shapes and colors of traffic signs. This use case does not relate directly to Connected Car features, but it is necessary for self-driving cars. If autonomous cars are introduced to the market, traffic sign recognition will be installed in every vehicle. Locally based information about events Geo fencing offers a variety of interesting applications for consumers. Connected Cars on the one hand are able to analyze the music the driver prefers. On the other hand they can send certain information into the head-up display, based on their location. If cars are within a predefined area or in a foreign city, they could receive information about events according to the music played in the car. This could be of greater value to people when they are traveling. In addition, the consumer does not need to manually search for these entertainment events as they are simply shown in the car. Offers of available parking spots This use case relies on geo fencing. When a car reaches the center of a city or an airport it could receive offers for available parking spots. These might be special offers or just regularly available parking spots. It might be an advantage for consumers driving into cities if they are able to check parking options before even arriving at their destination. Electronic logbook Business drivers or company cars could be equipped with an automatic logbook. Therefore the driver no longer needs to fill out the information manually. Solutions for automatically logging this data add value, especially to fleet management operations. Electronic logbooks could increase efficiency and reduce the car’s carbon footprint. 23 © Volkswagen AG Health check of driver Some car companies, for example Ford and Toyota, have been developing health solutions for drivers. There are features such as monitoring the glucose level for diabetics or warnings for areas with a higher risk of allergic reactions. Any of those health monitoring apps require additional sensors. If they are built in, other health checks can be done while driving. An impending heart attack could be shown with an alert in the car’s display, possibly resulting in increased safety for the driver and other road users. Another possibility would be to set the navigation system to avoid certain high-risk allergic areas or even high air pollution. This might be extremely helpful for someone who suffers from breathing problems. Digital driver control Drivers could be tired and may have been on the road for a long time. Instead of merely analyzing the time spent driving, the entire driving behavior could be analyzed to tell the driver when there is a higher risk of having an accident. Factors such as the average position in the car lane, reaction time and many more factors could be evaluated. Then the car may suggest taking a break, including possible places to rest nearby. Used car check Buying a used car is a stressful situation for most people. They could look for the car’s specifications and the basic car data such as age, kilometers driven, and so on. The physical appearance can be evaluated only from the outside. With an app and the mandatory interface to the car it could be possible to check the electronic systems of the car. The value for consumers is tremendous if they are able to check the entire car. It could save them from a nasty surprise. 24 Mobile payment of car tolls The customer value may be quite low for this use case, but connected vehicles offer the possibility to calculate the exact distance driven on specific roads. Therefore it might be possible to charge a flexible toll. However, the regulations and laws might be the biggest obstacle to setting up such a system. The technical aspects are practically accomplished when cars are connected. Booking of parking spots in advance Parking spots have become rare in big cities. The search for an available parking spot can be both stressful and exhausting. It can take up to an hour to find a suitable parking space in the center of cities such as Munich or San Francisco. Therefore it could be a good idea to introduce the possibility of booking the parking spot prior to arrival. It could be possible for commercial parking lots or garages as well as for private parking areas. The booking of such designated parking spots could be done online or by using an app. Drivers and their passengers may see the most value in the time-saving aspect. It is far less stressful to be able to book the parking in advance than looking for vacant spaces. This could be useful on a shopping trip in a bigger city and allows for better planning and more efficient use of time when traveling. Combined insurance services (e.g. bCall) If a car is already equipped with a telematics box, insurers may be able to sell additional services, such as breakdown assistance. Even though the eCall will be a mandatory feature in any new car built as from 2015, a bCall might be helpful for used cars. It would enable drivers to have the same safety functions as in new cars. Cross-selling offers Insurers could send offers or requests to the head-up display of the car. For instance, if the car is heading towards the Alps in the winter, there might be offers concerning accident or legal liability insurances. There are a number of other possible options, but they all function in the same way. Insurance policies could be offered, based on navigation systems or geo fencing. Ad hoc carpooling This use case enhances the known features of carpooling. Carpooling enables private drivers to share their cars with other people. Usually, these trips are booked in advance and the carpooling people meet at specific locations to start their journey. Ad hoc carpooling allows the driver and potential passengers to use this service while on the road. This means that real-time information of the position of the car and the passenger is shared. The following example illustrates the concept. The driver is on a trip from Munich to Berlin and is interested in taking passengers with him. He then sets a range of detour kilometers he is willing to take in order to pick someone up along the way. A potential passenger needs to travel from Leipzig to Berlin and he wants to carpool. Then he is able to see available cars traveling in his direction. He is now able to send a booking request to the driver. The driver then decides whether he is willing to pick up the passenger. Combined booking of cars and parking spots Car sharing could be taken to a new level. The availability of car-sharing vehicles is already traceable. This use case makes it possible to book the car and a parking spot at the destination. This could be relevant in bigger cities with limited parking space. The infrastructure needs to be developed in order to check the availability of parking spots, but if they are available the driver could book this specific spot in advance and it would save the time spent looking for suitable parking. Private car sharing without physically exchanging keys The connectivity of cars may also boost the private car-sharing sector. Using a telematics box that could be built into used cars, it becomes possible to open and lock the car without needing physical keys. This would allow private car owners to offer their cars to be shared without actually meeting the person renting the vehicle. Geo-fencing may then be used to set the allowed area for the rental. In addition, GPS data could be used to analyze and track the distance covered. A GPS signal could send out warnings if the car has been stolen. A telematics box therefore offers a variety of possibilities for private car sharing. Reminder of forgotten mobile devices in the car A Connected Car recognizes any devices left behind in the car. If you leave your car and you forgot to take your phone with you, the car can send acoustic and visual signals to remind you. The use case could be expanded to include tablets and laptops. This use case could be an add-on to existing telematics boxes in order to boost consumer satisfaction. 25 © Volkswagen AG Concierge services Car manufacturers could offer a concierge service to their customers. This includes booking of hotel rooms, making reservations in restaurants or locating the closest ATM. It could be done by a person that is called from the car. The other option is to make these services automatically available. This might include points of interest or other features. Then the car’s hands-free kit establishes a connection to the corresponding place. Automatic information on delays When calendars and business schedules are synchronized with the car’s telematics system, the car could send notifications to the business partner in case of delays. If, for example, someone is running late and the navigation system recognizes the delay, the car matches the existing data. Then it sends a message to the person waiting, including an approximate arrival time. This use case could function as a secretary for the driver. Location-based memory function Instead of setting reminders at a specific time it might be more useful to send notifications based on the location. This means that if someone, for example, needs to buy groceries it might be better to inform the driver when there is a store nearby, rather than at a pre-set time. Basically, the calendar and organizer uses location information instead of a time to notify the consumer. Connected Cars may use their GPS position and the information from navigation systems to identify the locations. 26 Leasing rate based on driving behavior New business models in terms of leasing could be created. Instead of setting up the rate only based on the kilometers driven, it might be possible to analyze the driving behavior. This includes accelerating, braking, and overall driving habits. Furthermore, it could include the time when the car is on the street as well as the type of street. However, it is unclear as to whether consumers will be willing to be more or less transparent in order to calculate a lower leasing rate. Current car residual value sent to the consumer This use case enables consumers to check the current value of their cars. According to the car’s condition, the residual value can be seen at any time. This could go as far as sending information to the car or the smartphone when the car has a good selling value. The market demand can influence the value and therefore consumers wanting to sell their cars can decide depending on this information. Executive Editor: The present study was conducted by the Connected Car Team consisting of Boris Danne and Patrick Hofer. My special thanks belongs to them as the main research team as well as to all other employees from AutoScout24 who have supported the study. Munich, July 2014 Dr. Robert Martignoni Senior Business Development Manager AutoScout24 GmbH Overview of interviewed experts (excerpt) Name Position Company Andreas Lehmann Product Manager Automotive iPublish Ganske GmbH Prof. Dr. Heinz-Leo Dudek Professor DHBW/Consultant Openmatics ZF AG / DHBW Thomas Girod Sales Manager Automotive Vodafone GmbH Thomas Becher VP Business Development – Business Solutions TomTom AG Christian Seiler Head of Diagnosis, Consulting & Innovation Management Gigatronik GmbH Lars Thyroff CMO and SVP M2M EMEA Region Cinterion Wireless Modules Karsten Winkler Project Leader/Senior Consultant P3 Group Dorian Gast Head of Solution Sales Mobility Telefonica Germany Andreas Schwarzmeier Product Manager ConnectedDrive BMW Group Rudolf Mietzner Technology Coaching & Consulting MFG Innovationsagentur für IT und Medien des Landes BW Wilko Wolters Practice Leader Mobility Ingenieurskunst GmbH Tobias Scheibling Consultant Automotive/M2M/Car2X T-Systems International Peter Weichsel Senior Consultant P3 Group Steffen Holly Head of Media Management and Delivery Fraunhofer IDMT Alexander Ruhland Business Development Associate – Connected Car IBM Germany Dr. Thomas Siems Managing Partner/Executive Board/ Head of Automotive Henrik Mitsch Executive Manager Product Management DriveNow Sixt AG Andreas Bucholz CEO conexas GmbH David Toma Manager Strategic Direction & Innovation Ernst & Young GmbH Dr. Michael Dinkel Director Infotainment Elektrobit Automotive GmbH Martin Muschet Manager Business Analytics and Optimization IBM Austria Simon Baumann PR Carpooling.com GmbH Detecon International GmbH 27 AutoScout24 GmbH Dingolfinger Str. 1–15 81673 Munich Germany [email protected] www.autoscout24.de