1655 Cover.cdr - City of London

Transcription

SOUTH EAST CITY OF LONDON
Market Demand and Impact Analysis
Submitted To:
Commissioners Centres Limited
Submitted By:
November 2007
Submitted to:
Commissioners Centres Limited
700 Applewood Crescent, Suite 100
Vaughan, Ontario
L4K 5X3
Prepared By:
Malone Given Parsons Ltd.
140 Renfrew Drive, Suite 201
Markham, Ontario
L3R 6B3
Tel: (905) 513-0170
Fax: (905) 513-0177
[email protected]
[email protected]
November 2007
07-1655
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. i
1.0
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1
1.1
Purpose of the Study .................................................................................................... 1
1.2
Methodology ................................................................................................................ 2
2.0
DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL ............................................................................................... 4
2.1
Site Location and Local Context .................................................................................. 4
2.2
Local and Regional Access .......................................................................................... 6
2.3
Proposed Development Concept .................................................................................. 7
2.4
Official Plan and Zoning .............................................................................................. 8
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................. 10
3.1
Recent Commercial Studies ....................................................................................... 10
3.2
Study Area Delineation .............................................................................................. 11
3.3
Commercial Nodes in South East London ................................................................. 14
3.4
Commercial Inventory Summary ............................................................................... 15
3.5
Commercial Inventory By Node ................................................................................ 18
3.5.1 Node 1: Pond Mills Square and Vicinity ....................................................... 18
3.5.2 Node 2: Wellington Road .............................................................................. 19
3.5.3 Node 3: White Oaks Mall .............................................................................. 20
3.5.4 Node 4: Exeter Road and Wellington Road................................................... 20
3.5.5 Node 5: South of Highway 401 ..................................................................... 21
3.5.6 Node 6: Emerging Commercial ..................................................................... 21
3.5.7 Node 7: Other South East London ................................................................. 21
3.6
Surrounding Commercial ........................................................................................... 22
3.6.1 Zone 2: Central East London ......................................................................... 24
3.6.2 Zone 3: Central Thames Centre Study Area .................................................. 25
3.6.3 Other London Commercial Space.................................................................. 26
3.7
Major Planned and Proposed Commercial Space ...................................................... 28
3.8
Beyond the City of London ........................................................................................ 31
4.0
STUDY AREA SPENDING .................................................................................................. 33
4.1
Trade Area Population and Projections...................................................................... 34
4.2
Trade Area Income and Per Capita Spending ............................................................ 35
4.3
Study Area FSTM Expenditure Potential .................................................................. 37
4.4
Study Area DSTM+HI Expenditure Potential ........................................................... 38
5.0
MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ................................................................................... 40
5.1
Existing Shopping Patterns ........................................................................................ 40
5.1.1 Customer Origin Licence Plate Surveys ........................................................ 41
5.1.2 Consumer Surveys ......................................................................................... 44
5.2
Components and Allocation of Spending .................................................................. 49
5.3
Demand Analysis ....................................................................................................... 50
5.3.1 Supermarket Demand .................................................................................... 52
MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
5.4
5.5
6.0
TABLE OF CONTENTS
5.3.2 Department Store Demand............................................................................. 53
5.3.3 Non-Department Store DSTM Demand ........................................................ 55
Impact Evaluation ...................................................................................................... 56
5.4.1 Supermarket Impact ....................................................................................... 58
5.4.2 Department Store DSTM Impact ................................................................... 59
5.4.3 Non-Department Store DSTM Impact ........................................................... 61
Opportunities for the Commissioners Road East and Highbury Avenue Node ......... 62
CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................... 66
FIGURES
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Aerial Photo of Commissioners Centres’ Site ......................................................................... 4
Commissioners Centres’ Site – Local Context ......................................................................... 6
Commissioners Centres’ Site – Regional Context ................................................................... 7
Proposed Development Concept .............................................................................................. 8
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
South East London Study Area Zones ................................................................................... 13
Zone 1: South East London Commercial Nodes ................................................................... 15
Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre Commercial Nodes ....... 23
Major Commercial Locations in the Study Area and the Rest of London ............................. 26
Supermarket Locations in the Study Area and the Rest of London ....................................... 27
Department Store Locations in the Study Area and the Rest of London ............................... 28
Major Planned and Proposed Commercial Developments, July 2007 ................................... 29
Leasing Site Plan for RioCan’s Summerside Shopping Centre ............................................. 30
Regional Context .................................................................................................................... 31
4.1
South East London Study Area Zones .................................................................................... 33
5.1
5.2
Share of Supermarket Spending Captured by Zone 1: South East London Supermarkets .... 46
Share of Department Store Spending Captured by Zone 1: South East London Department
Stores ...................................................................................................................................... 47
Share of Non-Department Store DSTM Spending Captured by Zone 1: South East London
Non-Department Store DSTM Stores .................................................................................... 49
Before and After Aerial Photographs of Oakridge Mall ........................................................ 64
5.3
5.4
TABLES
3.1
3.2
3.3
Summary of Zone 1: South East London Commercial Space by Node, June 2007 ............... 16
Summary of Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre Commercial
Space by Node, June 2007...................................................................................................... 24
Planned and Proposed Commercial Developments in the Study Area, July 2007 ................. 29
4.1
4.2
Trade Area Population Distribution ....................................................................................... 34
Trade Area Population and Projections .................................................................................. 34
TABLE OF CONTENTS
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
Study Area Income and Income Indexes ................................................................................ 36
Study Area Per Capita FSTM and DSTM+HI Expenditures ................................................. 37
Study Area FSTM Expenditure Potential Forecast (in 2006 Constant Dollars) .................... 38
Study Area DSTM+HI Expenditure Potential Forecast (in 2006 Constant Dollars) ............. 39
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.10
Customer Origin License Plate Survey Results, November 2004 .......................................... 42
Customer Origin License Plate Survey Results, March 2007 ................................................ 43
Allocation of FSTM and DSTM+HI Spending by Category: 2007 Estimate ........................ 50
Zone 1: South East London Supermarket Spending and Sales .............................................. 53
Zone 1: South East London Department Store Spending and Sales ...................................... 54
Zone 1: South East London Non-Department Store DSTM Spending and Sales .................. 55
Impact Evaluation Additional Space Assumptions ................................................................ 57
Supermarket Impact................................................................................................................ 58
Department Store Impact ........................................................................................................ 60
Non-Department Store DSTM Impact ................................................................................... 61
APPENDICES
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
Commercial Inventory
Units in Plans of Subdivision
Retail Per Capita Expenditure Definition and Derivation
Licence Plate Survey Results
Consumer Telephone Survey Details
Impact Analysis Detailed Tables
INTRODUCTION
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Malone Given Parsons Ltd. has been retained by Commissioners Centres
Limited (“CCL”) to carry out a market demand and impact assessment of a
proposed retail and service commercial centre located at Meadowlily Road
South and Commissioners Road East in the south eastern portion of the City
of London.
CCL is proposing to develop a 22.5 acre site at the north east corner of the
intersection of Meadowlily Road and Commissioners Road East with a retail
and service commercial development totalling approximately 275,000 sq.ft.
of commercial floor space. The Proposed Development will be anchored by
a 215,000 sq.ft. Wal-Mart department store and 60,000 sq.ft. of commercial
retail unit space.
Aerial Photo of Commissioners Centres’ Site
The Site is designated Urban Reserve – Community Growth in the London
Official Plan. An amendment to the London Official Plan is required to
redesignate the Site to Associated Shopping Area Commercial. While the
London Official Plan does not include policies requiring market studies for
such amendments, City planning staff have indicated that they require a
i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
supporting retail and service commercial market study that identifies
potential impacts on nearby commercial areas, specifically White Oaks Mall,
Pond Mills Square, and the new Summerside Shopping Centre. Given the
nature of the London Official Plan policies for the Associated Shopping Area
Commercial designation, the key questions that are addressed in this study
are:
Is there market support for the proposed development?
Will it compromise the planned function of existing commercial
areas in south east London, namely White Oaks Mall, Pond Mills
Square and Summerside Shopping Centre?
COMMERCIAL
CONTEXT
A three-zoned Study Area was delineated for this analysis and represents the
area from which CCL’s Proposed Development is expected to draw the
majority of its sales on a consistent basis. Zone 1: South East London
reflects the geographic area the Proposed Development will serve on a
regular basis while Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre reflect the broader geographic areas the Proposed
Development will draw from on an occasional basis.
South East London Study Area Zones
ii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This analysis focuses on the impact the Proposed Development could have on
existing retail and service commercial offerings located within or bordering
Zone 1: South East London. In a commercial inventory carried out in June
2007, over 3.27 million sq.ft. of retail and service commercial space was
measured in Zone 1: South East London. Over 1.9 million sq.ft. of this space
was Department Store Type Merchandise (DSTM) space, which accounted for
60.0% of the retail and service commercial space measured. By comparison,
737,300 sq.ft. of Service and Restaurant and 255,000 sq.ft. of Food Store Type
Merchandise (FSTM) space was measured, representing 22.5% and 7.8% of
total measured space respectively. 263,100 sq.ft. of vacant space was
measured, representing 8.0% of the total measured commercial space. A large
portion of this vacant space was concentrated in Pond Mills Square and
Adelaide Southdale Centre.
A total of 6.88 million sq.ft. of commercial space was measured in Zone 2:
Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre. The inventory
includes commercial space in London’s Downtown and Downtown Fringe
areas, which accounted for 47.5% of the measured space in the two Zones.
The majority of Zone 3’s commercial space was concentrated in the
community of Dorchester.
In addition to existing commercial space, there are three major planned or
proposed commercial projects in the Study Area. Together, they could add up
to 409,100 sq.ft. of additional commercial space.
iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Major Planned and Proposed Commercial Developments, July 2007
POPULATION
AND INCOME
The Study Area’s population totals 169,630 in 2007 and is projected to
increase by 6,360 people to 175,990 by 2015 with the continued construction
of residential units that are currently in various stages of the planning process.
Income levels influence per capita spending on various goods and services.
Zone 1: South East London and Zone 2: Central East London have average
household incomes below that of Ontario, while Zone 3: Central Thames
Centre has average household incomes slightly above the provincial average.
MARKET
DEMAND AND
IMPACT
An analysis of supermarket, department store, and non-department store
DSTM spending was carried out as part of this analysis. In carrying out the
analysis of impact arising from CCL’s Proposed Development, assumptions
have been made about the composition of planned commercial space in
Summerside Shopping Centre. Also, while we are not aware of any
immediate plans that would cause a rapid take-up of vacant space in Pond
Mills Square, our analysis also tests the impact the Proposed Development
would have on a partially retenanted Pond Mills Square.
Without know the final store configuration, tenants, or size of any of these
commercial developments, we have test the impact based on the assumptions
presented in the following table:
iv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Impact Evaluation Additional Space Assumptions
Summerside Shopping Centre
Loblaws
RONA
CRU Space
Total Summerside Space
Supermarket
Department
Store
NonDepartment
Store DSTM
Total Space
Tested
Services
Home
Improvement
Total Space
80,000
0
0
80,000
0
0
0
0
80,000
0
17,000
97,000
160,000
0
17,000
177,000
18,900
0
22,100
41,000
0
103,900
0
103,900
178,900
103,900
39,100
321,900
0
0
0
0
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
0
0
0
0
50,000
50,000
55,000
0
55,000
135,000
165,000
0
165,000
165,000
0
40,000
40,000
187,000
220,000
40,000
260,000
487,000
0
20,000
20,000
-
0
0
0
-
215,000
60,000
275,000
-
Pond Mills Square
Take-up of Vacant Space
Total Pond Mills Square Space
CCL's Proposed Development
Wal-Mart
CRU Space
Total CCL's Proposed Development
Total Space Tested
Supermarket
Analysis
Zone 1: South East London’s four supermarkets capture only a small
proportion of the Study Area’s supermarket spending. Supermarket shopping
patterns are influenced by the large amount and variety of supermarket space
located outside of the Study Area. Still, at a combined averages sales
performance of $528/per sq.ft., the Study Area’s supermarkets are performing
at healthy levels.
It is assumed that the significant increase of supermarket space in Zone 1:
South East London by 2009 will influence the amount of FSTM spending
directed to supermarkets in the Study Area. Similarly, the total share of
supermarket spending that Study Area residents direct to Zone 1: South East
London is also forecast to increase significantly. The findings and
implications are as follows:
Sales to the new supermarkets will be derived from growth in the
market, reallocation of sales from existing supermarkets in the Study
Area and the rest of London, sales transfers from the four existing
supermarkets in Zone 1: South East London, and sales transfers from
other FSTM stores.
The introduction of two new supermarkets will together increase the
proportion of FSTM spending directed to supermarkets and recapture
the large outflow of supermarket spending currently directed to other
supermarkets outside the Study Area.
In the first year of operation (2009), sales will drop at the Food Basics
at Pond Mill Square. By 2011, however, sales will increase to above
current levels.
Sales will drop at the three supermarkets on Wellington Road as a
result of the competitive effects of introducing a new, larger Loblaw
v
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Company store in a market that is made up of a significant amount of
this company’s supermarket space.
The market will be sufficient to support both the Summerside
Shopping Centre Loblaws and the supermarket component of CCL’s
proposed Wal-Mart in 2009.
The food component of existing commercial areas will continue to be
viable and there will be no closures as a result of the new supermarket
space added to Zone 1: South East London.
The two new food stores will significantly increase and improve the
level of retail service to residents of Zone 1: South East London.
Department Store
Analysis
Almost three quarters (71.9%) of Zone 1: South East London’s department
store expenditures are directed to the zone’s three department stores: Zellers in
Pond Mills Square, and Wal-Mart and The Bay in White Oaks Mall. These
stores, however, attract a much smaller proportion of Zone 2: Central East
London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre department store expenditures at
9.5% and 30.9% respectively.
The introduction of additional department store space will result in a shift in
department store shopping patterns in Zone 1: South East London. The new
Wal-Mart department store space will increase the department store share of
DSTM+HI spending as well as captures of department store spending, but,
will also result in sales transfers from existing department stores. It is
anticipated that the proposed Wal-Mart department store space will compete
most directly with the Zellers in Pond Mills Square as well as other Wal-Mart
stores in the Study Area. The findings and implications are as follows:
Sales attributed to the proposed Wal-Mart department store space
will be derived from growth in the market, reallocation of sales from
existing department stores in the Study Area and the rest of London,
by sales transfers from the existing Wal-Marts in the Study Area, and
by sales transfers from non-department store DSTM stores.
Zone 1: South East London’s department stores are generally healthy,
although the small Pond Mills Square Zellers is not performing as
well as other Zellers stores across the chain.
The introduction of department store space will both increase the
proportion of DSTM spending directed to department stores and
recapture some outflow of department store spending currently
directed to other department stores outside the Study Area.
The new Wal-Mart department store space will draw sales from other
vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
department stores, but primarily from the other Study Area WalMarts.
The competitive impacts of the addition of department store space
will not affect The Bay or other Wal-Marts.
Pond Mills Square’s Zellers’ sales will decline to the lower end of
the chain’s store performance. We acknowledge that there could be
some risk of closure due to competition, although, the Zellers’ sales
will rebound over time. The Hudson Bay Company is expected to
retain the store to maintain strategic market share in Zone 1: South
East London.
The market can support the proposed Wal-Mart department store
space without compromising the viability of existing commercial
areas. The additional space will complement the mix of retail and
commercial uses planned and proposed for Node 6: Emerging
Commercial and will strengthen the level of retail services for
residents.
Non-Department
Store DSTM
Analysis
Just under two-thirds (61.4%) of Zone 1: South East London residents’
spending in non-department store DSTM stores is captured by stores within
the Zone 1 Study Area. This can be compared to the 19.8% and 39.4% of
non-department store DSTM spending directed to the Zone 1 Study Area by
Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre
respectively.
The findings and implications of the introduction of additional nondepartment store DSTM space is:
The new non-department store DSTM space will be mainly
supported by growth in the market and from the recapture of outflow
spending.
The overall performance of non-department store DSTM space in
Zone 1: South East London is considered to be healthy.
The impact of the proposed non-department store DSTM space in
Zone 1: South East London is forecast to be minor and short in
duration.
The addition of the proposed non-department store DSTM space will
increase and improve the level of local service to local and regional
area residents and will recapture outflow spending.
Average sales of non-department store DSTM stores are forecast to
remain viable in all retail nodes throughout the study period.
vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The addition of non-department store DSTM space on the CCL Site
will not compromise the viability of any retail area or undermine the
planned function of any existing or planned retail area in Zone 1:
South East London.
CONCLUSIONS
The following conclusions respond to City of London’s planning staff’s
concerns about the potential impact of CCL’s Proposed Development on
existing and planned commercial areas in south east London.
The market can support the Proposed Development.
Census data demonstrates that the population in south east London has grown
moderately over the last five years. Units in registered and draft approved
residential plans of subdivision will accommodate a growing population in
south east London. Population growth in the three-zoned Study Area will
support additional supermarket, department store, and non-department store
DSTM stores.
The addition of planned and proposed commercial space will also serve to
increase and improve the level of local service to residents and will recapture
outflow spending and increase captures from surrounding areas.
Together, growth in the market, sales transfers from existing stores both
within the Study Area and beyond, and the reallocation of spending by FSTM
and DSTM categories will support CCL’s Proposed Development.
The Proposed Development will not compromise the planned function of
White Oaks Mall.
White Oaks Mall is one of the City of London’s Regional Shopping Area
Commercial locations. It currently serves a very large trade area that extends
beyond the municipal boundaries. While the proposed department store and
non-department store DSTM space on the CCL Site will result in sales
transfers from White Oaks Mall, they are not significant enough to cause store
closures. While the Mall’s Wal-Mart department store will experience the
greatest competitive effects, the corporate decision to add additional Wal-Mart
space to south east London demonstrates their confidence that the new space
is supportable. CCL’s Proposed Development will not compromise the
planned function of White Oaks Mall.
viii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The introduction of retail and service commercial uses on CCL’s Site will
strengthen existing and planned commercial uses at Commissioners Road
East and Highbury Avenue.
Both the existing Pond Mills Square and the developing Summerside
Shopping Centre are designated Community Shopping Area Commercial in the
City of London Official Plan. Customer origin licence plate surveys
demonstrate that Pond Mills Square serves a more local market than White
Oaks Mall, with about 80% of its customers residing in the City of London in
2007. While Pond Mills Square is an appropriate location for commercial
uses and its stores are operating at reasonable levels, there are significant
opportunities to strengthen the local draw of this retail facility. The addition
of commercial space at both Summerside Shopping Centre and on the CCL
Site would create a new commercial focus in south east London giving Pond
Mills Square the opportunity to reinvent itself through reinvestment and
redevelopment. There is a need to reposition this enclosed shopping centre to
stay competitive. Fortunately, there is an excellent opportunity for this
commercial centre to find its niche and to benefit from increased supermarket,
department store, and non-department store DSTM captures resulting from
broadened and strengthened commercial offerings at Commissioners Road
Like Pond Mills Square, RioCan’s Summerside Shopping Centre is planned to
serve a more local market than White Oaks Mall. The mix of uses planned for
the RioCan site will no doubt strengthen the level of service in south east
London and help recapture some expenditure outflows. CCL’s Proposed
Development not have a competitive impact on the planned and proposed uses
at Summerside Shopping Centre. Instead, additional commercial in the
vicinity of the development would serve to support and complement the
shopping centre.
Together, Pond Mills Square, Summerside Shopping Centre, and CCL’s
Proposed Development would create a larger, new commercial focus for south
east London, improving the level of service for local residents and recapturing
outflows. CCL’s Proposed Development will not compromise the planned
function of these Community Shopping Areas.
ix
1.0
INTRODUCTION
1.0
INTRODUCTION
Malone Given Parsons Ltd. has been retained by Commissioners Centres
Limited (“CCL”) to carry out a market demand and impact assessment of a
proposed retail and service commercial centre located at Meadowlily Road
South and Commissioners Road East in the south eastern portion of the City
of London.
1.1
Purpose of
the Study
CCL is proposing to develop a 22.5 acre site at the north east corner of the
intersection of Meadowlily Road and Commissioners Road East with a
retail and service commercial project totalling approximately 275,000 sq.ft.
of commercial floor space (“Proposed Development”). The Proposed
Development will be anchored by a 215,000 sq.ft. Wal-Mart department
store and 60,000 sq.ft. of commercial retail unit (“CRU”) space.
The Site is currently designated Urban Reserve – Community Growth in the
City of London Official Plan (“London Official Plan”). An amendment to
the London Official Plan is required to redesignate the Site to Associated
Shopping Area Commercial. The London Official Plan policies state that
commercial uses in the Associated Shopping Area Commercial designation
must not diminish the dominance of the Regional and Community Shopping
Areas to which it is related. More specifically, the London Official Plan
states:
Areas designated Associated Shopping Area Commercial are
intended to be developed for a limited range of retail, service and
office uses which are complementary to the function of designated
Regional and Community Shopping Areas but which may not be
suited to locations within a Shopping Area by reason of their access,
site or exposure requirements. The Associated Shopping Area
Commercial designation is not intended to diminish the dominance
of the Regional or Community Shopping Area designation to which
is associated.
City of London Official Plan Section 4.5.1
While the London Official Plan does not include policies requiring market
studies for such amendments, City planning staff have indicated that they
require a supporting retail and service commercial market study that
identifies potential impacts on nearby commercial areas, specifically White
Oaks Mall, Pond Mills Square, and the new Summerside Shopping Centre.
1
1.0
INTRODUCTION
This market demand and impact analysis is intended to address the concerns
of planning staff and forms part of the application to amend the London
Official Plan and the City of London Zoning By-law Z.1 (“London Zoning
By-law”). Given the nature of the London Official Plan policies for the
Associated Shopping Area Commercial designation, the key questions that
are addressed in this study are:
Is there market support for the proposed development?
Will it compromise the planned function of existing commercial
areas in south east London, namely White Oaks Mall, Pond Mills
Square and Summerside Shopping Centre?
1.2
Methodology
This market study examines the existing commercial context and
competitive commercial environment in south east London and tests market
opportunity, residual demand, project feasibility, and the potential impact of
the Proposed Development. In the course of the research and analysis of
market demand and impact, the following was carried out:
Collection and review of existing relevant reports and documents,
including the London Official Plan, various Secondary Plans, and
the London Zoning By-law as well as recent Official Plan review
studies such as draft commercial policy documents;
Examination of the Site, its market location, surrounding context
and Site access;
A comprehensive commercial inventory of existing space in the
City of London, central Municipality of Thames Centre, and the
surrounding market area;
Assessment of the role and function of major commercial nodes in
south east and central London;
Review of existing commercial shopping centres and large scale
commercial projects influencing the market area;
Review of major planned and proposed commercial projects in the
market area;
Customer origin licence plate surveys at various locations in
London to determine extent of draw from within and outside the
London market area;
Consumer telephone survey of households within the City of
London and its surrounding market area;
2
1.0
INTRODUCTION
Identification of a study area that encompasses an area which has
the most direct influence on south east London and from which the
majority of sales achieved by the Proposed Development can be
expected to originate on a consistent basis;
Establishment of existing and forecasted population within the
study area;
Market opportunity and residual demand analysis;
A sales distribution analysis and an evaluation of potential impacts
with the introduction of the Proposed Development on the
viability, role and function of other retail areas and commercial
nodes in the vicinity of the Site; and,
Review of the existing and proposed commercial context.
The results of the research are presented in this market demand and impact
analysis study.
3
2.0
DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL
2.0
DEVELOPMENT
PROPOSAL
This section of the report includes a description of the Site location, access
and its surrounding local context. It also includes a description of the
Proposed Development and existing London Official Plan policies.
2.1
Site Location and
Local Context
The Site is located in a growing community in the south east area of the
City of London.
The Site is located on the north east corner of the Meadowlily Road South
and Commissioners Road East intersection in a developing community in the
south east area of the City of London. The Site is currently used for
agricultural purposes and is surrounded by a developing commercial area to
the south and open space to the north. Residential uses exist, are under
construction, or are in various stages of the planning process in the vicinity of
the Site. A large employment area is planned east of the Site.
Figure 2.1 illustrates the location of the Site in relation to surrounding uses.
Figure 2.1: Aerial Photo of Commissioners Centres’ Site
4
2.0
The following points provide a summary of existing and planned
development in the vicinity of the Site.
RioCan’s Summerside Shopping Centre, a 321,900 sq.ft.
community shopping centre, is under construction on a property
immediately south of the Site. The centre will accommodate a
103,900 sq.ft. RONA, 178,900 sq.ft. Loblaws, and 39,100 sq.ft. of
CRU space.
Land east and north of the Site is designated Open Space in the
London Official Plan.
Low density residential units exist on the west side of Meadowlily
Road South.
Pond Mills Square, which accommodates a Food Basics
supermarket and Zellers department store, is located at the north
west corner of Highbury Avenue North and Commissioners Road
East.
Residential uses in the Jackson Planning District are in various
stages of construction and the planning approvals process.
The Airport Road Planning Area is planned as an employment area
and includes the City of London’s Innovation Park.
Figure 2.2 illustrates the Site context and surrounding uses.
5
2.0
Figure 2.2: Commissioners Centres’ Site – Local Context
2.2
Local and Regional
Access
The Site has excellent access and visibility.
The Site is located in close proximity to Highbury Avenue, a Freeway
extending from Highway 401 in the south to Hamilton Road in the north.
This important link to the larger regional area had average annual daily
traffic of between 38,000 to 40,000 in 2002. The Site has excellent visibility
and access from Commissioner Road East, an Arterial road that had average
annual daily traffic of 13,000 in 2002.
People residing in the larger regional area have access to the Site from
Highway 401, situated about 2 kilometres south of the Site. Both the
Veterans Memorial Parkway and Highbury Avenue provide excellent northsouth access to Commissioners Road East.
The Site’s regional context is illustrated in Figure 2.3.
6
2.0
Figure 2.3: Commissioners Centres’ Site – Regional Context
2.3
Proposed
Development
Concept
CCL is proposing a 215,000 sq.ft. Wal-Mart department store and 60,000
sq.ft. of CRU space.
CCL is proposing to develop the 22.5 acre Site with retail and service
commercial uses. Specifically, the Site is proposed to accommodate an
estimated 275,000 sq.ft. of gross leasable floor area (“GLA”) of retail and
service commercial space. The Proposed Development consists of a nonenclosed commercial development anchored by a 215,000 sq.ft. Wal-Mart
department store and commercial pads totaling 60,000 sq.ft.
Figure 2.4 presents the conceptual plan, including the configuration of the
proposed development and its orientation to Commissioners Road East.
7
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Figure 2.4: Proposed Development Concept
2.4
Official Plan
and Zoning
The Site is both designated and zoned Urban Reserve.
The Site is designated Urban Reserve – Community Growth in the London
Official Plan. The London Official Plan states:
“Community Growth” areas will be composed of predominantly
residential uses but will include commercial, institutional, and open
space uses that are supportive of the community as well as provide
employment opportunities in a community setting … Notwithstanding
this general intent, lands within the Urban Reserve designations may
be redesignated by Council for any use through the community
planning process and resulting amendment to this Plan.
City of London Official Plan Section 9.4.3
8
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In addition, site specific London Official Plan policies for the Site state:
… that it is anticipated that there will be proposals to provide higher
density housing forms and some commercial services for the future
residents of the area. Consideration will be given to redesignating the
lands to permit an appropriate mix of residential development and
some commercial development.
City of London Official Plan Section 9.4.6.i)
The Site is zoned Urban Reserve (UR) in the London Zoning By-law Z-1.
The intent of the UR Zone is to preserve the ability to comprehensively plan
and develop large tracts of undeveloped lands. The Site also contains a
holding provision. The h-2 provision requires an agreement regarding
appropriate development conditions and boundaries for the Site in regards
to adjacent natural features, which is based on an Environmental Impact
Study, before the holding provision may be lifted.
Amendments to the London Official Plan and the London Zoning By-law
are required to permit the Proposed Development. An Associated Shopping
Area Commercial designation is proposed for the Site. This designation
permits a broad mix of commercial uses associated with Regional and
Community Shopping Areas. London Official Plan policies state that
commercial uses in the Associated Shopping Area Commercial designation
must not diminish the dominance of the Regional and Community Shopping
Areas to which it is related. For this reason, the impact of the Proposed
Development on surrounding commercial uses will be tested in this
analysis.
9
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
3.0
COMMERCIAL
CONTEXT
This section presents the conclusions of recent municipal-wide commercial
market supply and demand analyses as well as provides details of nearby
shopping areas that may affect or be effected by CCL’s Proposed
Development in south east London.
3.1
Recent
Commercial
Studies
Recent commercial market supply and demand analyses conclude that a
significant amount of additional commercial space is required in the City
of London by 2026.
In January 2005, Malone Given Parsons prepared a commercial review
report for a local developer entitled City of London Review of Commercial
Supply and Demand. The report presented the results of a comprehensive
commercial inventory for the City for the purpose of quantifying the amount
of commercial space in the municipality and to provide a better
understanding of the City’s commercial environment.
The analysis
concluded that:
As of August 2004, there was a total of 15.3 million sq.ft. of
commercial space in the municipality;
Commercial uses were located in a range of shopping centres and
strip developments which accommodated nationally recognized
retailers and independent stores in modern shopping developments;
Vacant space accounted for approximately 8.6% of the City’s
commercial space which was not significant as it permitted for an
appropriate amount of competition and choice in the market;
Major planned and proposed commercial projects and vacant
commercial land would provide some opportunities for additional
commercial space; and,
With growth in the market, there would be a demand for an
additional 5.3 million sq.ft. of commercial space by 2026, 1.9
million sq.ft. more than could be accommodated in planned and
proposed commercial projects and on vacant commercial land.
The City of London is in the process of updating its commercial policy
framework as part of its mandatory 5-year Official Plan review.
urbanMetrics inc. and Meridian Planning Consultants Inc. have prepared
four draft discussion reports on which to base future commercial policy
recommendations. Their draft Commercial Market and Supply Analysis,
dated July 5, 2007, is specifically relevant to this market demand and impact
analysis as it provides an update and a second opinion on the quantity of
10
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
commercial space in the City, the adequacy of its distribution, and the
demand for additional space over the planning horizon. The conclusions of
the draft report are summarized as follows:
London’s commercial inventory in 2007 totals some 17 million
sq.ft. This space represents a marginal oversupply, which is not
considered significant in a growing market such as London;
There is a fairly good balance in terms of the distribution of
commercial space throughout the City;
Vacant lands designated for commercial uses could support up to
4.3 million square feet of commercial space if fully built out;
By 2026, there will be demand for approximately 6.0 million sq.ft.
feet of additional retail and service commercial space in the City,
resulting in a shortfall of some 1.7 million sq.ft. by 2026; and,
Assuming that some of the shortfall could be met by the absorption
of vacant space, the shortfall could be reduced to 0.8 to 1.2 million
sq.ft.
It is recommended, however, that the City apply a contingency to
these requirements to account for the conversion of some existing
retail space to non-retail uses and the fact that some designated sites
may not be suitable for commercial development.
Similar conclusions about London’s commercial supply and demand balance
to 2026 were reached in both Malone Given Parsons’ 2005 and urbanMetrics
and Meridian’s 2007 analyses. Both concluded that the City will have to
designate additional commercial land to satisfy future commercial
requirements.
While these municipal-wide market studies are useful in demonstrating long
term demand for retail and service commercial uses throughout the entire
City, this analysis is concerned with identifying the need for additional
commercial space in south east London exclusively. This study considers
the impact a new major retail and service commercial development may
have on surrounding commercial areas in the short term.
3.2
Study Area
Delineation
This analysis is concerned with retail and service commercial uses in south
east and central east London and central Thames Centre.
The Study Area delineated for this analysis represents the area from which
the Proposed Development is expected to draw the majority of its sales on a
11
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
consistent basis. For the purposes of this study, a three-zone Study Area was
delineated using 2006 Census dissemination areas. The Study Area reflects
our expectation that the proposed retail and service commercial development
will serve both a local and regional function, serving residents of the
growing neighbourhoods surrounding the Site, from central London, and
from neighbouring Thames Centre. The three Study Area zones are:
Zone 1: South East London – bound by the Thames River (South
Branch) in the north, the London city limits in the east and south,
and generally by Wellington Road in the west.
Zone 2: Central East London – bound by the Thames River
(North Branch) in the west and part of the north, by the London city
limits in part of the north and the east, and the Thames River (South
Branch) in the south.
Zone 3: Central Thames Centre – bound by the London city
limits in the west, Dundas Road in the north, the Thames Centre
municipal limits in the east, and generally Gladstone Drive in the
south.
The spatial extent of each Study Area zone is shown in Figure 3.1.
12
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Figure 3.1: South East London Study Area Zones
Zone 1: South East London reflects the geographic area the Proposed
Development will serve on a regular basis. It includes nearby shopping
areas that could potentially be effected by changes in shopping patterns
resulting from the introduction of the Proposed Development.
Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre reflect the
broader geographic areas the Proposed Development will draw from on an
occasional basis. While Zone 1: South East London reflects the geographic
area that the proposed development will serve on a regular basis, shopping
trips originating from the other two zones are more likely to be less
frequent, destination type shopping trips because of the distance from the
Site and the presence of other shopping opportunities.
Combined, the aggregate Study Area reflects the area from which the
Proposed Development would draw the majority of its trade on a consistent
basis.
13
3.3
Commercial
Nodes In South
East London
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Retail and service commercial space in the vicinity of the Site has been
grouped into seven nodes.
This analysis focuses on the impact CCL’s commercial development could
have on existing retail and service commercial offerings located within or
bordering Zone 1: South East London. While it is expected that market
support for the Proposed Development will come from a variety of sources,
including the recapture of Study Area resident spending currently directed to
shopping centres located outside the Study Area zone, it is stores within
Zone 1: South East London that could potentially be most effected by
changes in local spending patterns.
The existing commercial offerings in south east London have been
characterized in Figure 3.2 by six spatially defined commercial nodes. A
seventh node is spatially undefined and encompasses all retail commercial
space that is not located in the six nodes.
Node 1: Pond Mills Square and Vicinity
Node 2: Wellington Rd
Node 3: White Oaks Mall
Node 4: Exeter Rd and Wellington Rd
Node 5: South of Highway 401
Node 6: Emerging Commercial
Node 7: Other South East London
Each spatially defined node represents an area with generally similar
commercial characteristics, locational attributes, commercial role, and
commercial policies. This nodal structure provides an opportunity to
understand the relationship between commercial areas and their function
within the Zone 1: South East London commercial environment. It also
assists in understanding the potential implications of the Proposed
Development and other planned developments on market performance and
the market position of existing commercial areas.
14
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Figure 3.2: Zone 1: South East London Commercial Nodes
3.4
Commercial
Inventory
Summary
Over 3.27 million sq.ft. of retail and service commercial space was
measured in Zone 1: South East London.
In order to gain a better understanding of the commercial context within the
Study Area, Malone Given Parsons prepared an update to the August 2004
commercial inventory presented in the report City of London Review of
Commercial Supply and Demand. The June 2007 update consisted of a
review of existing space and documentation of tenant changes and the
measurement of all new ground-related retail and service commercial space
in the Study Area which included:
Food Store Type Merchandise (FSTM) such as supermarkets,
grocery stores, specialty food stores, and convenience stores;
Department Store Type Merchandise (DSTM) such as department
stores, drug stores, warehouse membership clubs, clothing, home
appliances and furnishings, semi-durables, durables, home and
auto supply;
15
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Home Improvement (HI) such as paint and wallpaper, plumping
and other home centres; garden centres; and building supply
stores;
Services such as: restaurants, financial institutions, video, personal
services, medical/dental, and professional services (note: this does
not include establishments in multi-storey office space); and,
Vacant space.
In total, over 3.27 million sq.ft. of retail and service commercial space was
measured in Zone 1: South East London. Table 3.1 provides a summary of
the commercial inventory by node and major commercial category. Details
of the inventory are presented in Appendix A.
Table 3.1: Summary of Zone 1: South East London Commercial Space by Node, June 2007
Zone 1: South East London
Node 1
Node 2
Node 3
Node 4
Node 5
Node 6
Node 7
Total Node
1 to 7
Pond Mills Square
and Vicinity
Wellington Rd
White Oaks Mall
Exeter Rd &
Wellington Rd
South of Highway 401
Emerging
Commercial
Other South East
London
South East London
Study Area
Supermarkets and Grocery
Convenience and Specialty Food Stores
Total FSTM
38,200
7,400
45,600
145,000
23,200
168,200
0
2,000
2,000
0
5,100
5,100
0
500
500
0
0
0
0
33,600
33,600
183,200
71,800
255,000
Department Stores
Other General Merchandise Stores
Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
Electronics, Appliances, Computer and Software Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Building material/ Garden Equipment/ Supplies Dealers
Total DSTM and Home Improvement
65,700
0
10,400
0
0
0
0
0
1,700
0
77,800
0
23,200
30,800
17,300
1,000
25,300
38,400
90,800
47,400
9,000
283,200
316,000
91,200
11,500
253,000
3,500
3,100
13,200
34,800
9,400
0
735,700
0
5,000
4,200
179,000
56,700
46,000
37,800
1,500
41,800
17,300
389,300
0
154,700
0
0
42,200
22,700
0
11,200
0
31,200
262,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,500
21,400
9,100
84,500
12,900
22,700
22,000
4,900
34,500
216,500
381,700
278,600
78,300
458,400
187,900
110,000
112,100
160,300
105,200
92,000
1,964,500
0
0
0
0
0
12,500
2,300
14,800
0
0
200
200
0
0
0
0
27,800
0
3,800
31,600
0
0
0
0
3,200
0
7,100
10,300
31,000
12,500
13,400
56,900
15,300
0
13,600
6,100
6,700
0
800
0
42,500
151,800
26,400
31,300
26,800
36,600
26,900
36,600
64,200
400,600
11,500
0
3,000
12,200
2,700
300
0
0
29,700
65,300
30,000
6,900
2,500
0
1,200
1,800
0
107,700
16,700
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16,700
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37,600
9,400
23,400
3,600
16,900
12,000
17,100
20,100
140,100
298,200
65,800
78,200
51,200
62,900
40,400
56,300
84,300
737,300
165,900
123,000
288,900
42.6%
866,800
26,400
893,200
3.0%
767,600
9,200
776,800
1.2%
502,100
7,800
509,900
1.5%
310,800
19,100
329,900
5.8%
0
0
0
n/a
400,500
77,600
478,100
16.2%
3,013,700
263,100
3,276,800
8.0%
Second Hand Merchandise
Liquor / Beer / Wine
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
Food Services & Drinking Places
Repair and Maintenance Services
Personal & Laundry Services
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Professional Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Total Services and Restaurants
Total Occupied Space
Vacant Space
Total Measured Space
Vacancy Rate
Source: Malone Given Parsons Ltd., June 2007
Note: Inventory does not include Summerside Shopping Centre which was under construction at the time of the inventory. This space has been
accounted for as Planned and Proposed commercial space.
Over 1.95 million sq.ft. of DSTM+HI space was measured in Zone 1: South
East London, accounting for 60.0% of the retail and service commercial
space measured. By comparison, 737,300 sq.ft. of Service and Restaurant
and 255,000 sq.ft. of FSTM space was measured, representing 22.5% and
7.8% of total measured space respectively. 263,100 sq.ft. of vacant space
was measured, representing 8.0% of the measured commercial space.
16
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The majority of FSTM space was occupied by supermarkets and grocery
stores.
Of the 255,000 sq.ft. of FSTM space measured in Zone 1: South East
London, just under three quarters (71.8%) of the space was occupied by four
supermarkets: Food Basics, Loblaws, A&P, and Price Chopper. Node 2:
Wellington Road accommodated three of the four supermarkets. By
comparison, just over a quarter (28.2%) of the FSTM space measured
consisted of Other Food Store space, which includes jug milk stores and
speciality food stores. Much of this space (46.8%) was distributed
throughout Zone 1: South East London in spatially undefined Node 7: Other
South East London, not surprising considering these stores tend to satisfy
local resident’s FSTM demands and are situated in smaller neighbourhoodoriented plazas.
The majority of commercial space in Zone 1: South East London is
occupied by DSTM+HI uses.
Over 1.95 million sq.ft. of DSTM+HI space was measured in South East
London. This commercial category includes department stores, general
merchandise, apparel, furniture, drug, home and automotive stores. Almost
a quarter (23.3%) of DSTM+HI space in Zone 1: South East London was
occupied by Clothing and Accessories Stores, with over half (55.2%) of this
space concentrated in Node 3: White Oaks Mall. One fifth (19.4%) of
DSTM+HI space was occupied by three department stores, Zellers in Pond
Mills Square and The Bay and Wal-Mart in White Oaks Mall. A fair amount
of DSTM+HI space was occupied by Other General Merchandise stores,
accounting for 14.2% of DSTM+HI space.
Other Retail represented only a small proportion of measured space in
Zone 1: South East London.
Second hand, antique, liquor and wine, and miscellaneous stores in Zone 1:
South East London totalled 56,900 sq.ft., representing a mere 1.7% of the
total measured retail and service commercial space. Over half (54.5%) of
Other Retail space consisted of Second Hand Merchandise stores, the largest
being a 27,800 sq.ft. Value Village in Node 5: South of Highway 401.
17
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Services occupied 22.5% of total measured space, with a significant
portion used for Food Services and Drinking Places.
Service space includes restaurants, entertainment,
professional, and personal services. Together, these
737,300 sq.ft. of space in Zone 1: South East London.
Drinking Places occupied 40.4% of this space, half of
concentrated in Node 2: Wellington Road.
financial, medical,
uses accounted for
Food Services and
which (50.9%) was
263,100 sq.ft. of space was vacant, equating to a vacancy rate of 8.0%.
Zone 1: South East London’s vacant space accounts for 8.0% of total
measured retail and service commercial space. A certain amount of vacancy
is normal and desirable as it permits for an appropriate amount of
competition and choice in the market. An issue of concern with the vacant
space in Zone 1: South East London, however, is its distribution. A large
proportion of the measured vacant space was concentrated in Node 1: Pond
Mills Square and Vicinity in Pond Mills Square exclusively (109,300 sq.ft.)
and in Node 7: Other South East London in Adelaide Southdale Centre
(20,900 sq.ft.) and the former Bingo Palace (24,500 sq.ft.). From our
understanding of the local commercial context, mall ownership, and retail
and shopping centre trends, vacant space in Zone 1: South East London does
not reflect issues of over supply but is instead related to mall management
and shopping centre owner investment decisions.
3.5
Commercial
Inventory By Node
Having described the general characteristics of the commercial inventory,
the following section provides a brief description of each commercial node
in Zone 1: South East London.
3.5.1
Node 1: Pond Mills
Square and Vicinity
Pond Mills Square accommodates the two largest tenants in this node as
well as the highest concentration of vacant space in Zone 1.
Node 1: Pond Mills Square and Vicinity includes Pond Mills Square and
some free-standing, mostly service commercial uses in the vicinity of
Deveron Court and Commissioners Road East. Pond Mills Square is
designated Community Shopping Area in the London Official Plan. The
Community Shopping Area designation is intended to accommodate a range
of goods and services needed on a regular basis and is intended to serve
primarily surrounding neighbourhoods within a convenient driving distance.
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The node includes a 65,700 sq.ft. Zellers department store and a 38,200 sq.ft.
Food Basics supermarket, both located in Pond Mills Square. A freestanding 10,400 sq.ft. Shoppers Drug Mart is also located in this node. The
rest of the node’s occupied space accommodates primarily service
commercial uses.
The most notable characteristic of this node is its significant amount of
vacant space, which represents 42.6% of total measured space. The majority
(88.8%) of this node’s vacant space is concentrated in Pond Mills Square.
High rates of vacancy have been an issue at this mall since it was built in the
late 1980s. The shopping centre’s poor performance is a result of its poor
visibility, shape, and internal mall layout. Mall management have indicated
that much of the existing vacant space has been vacant since the late 1990s.
Management has stated that plans are underway to de-mall the shopping
centre and introduce big box tenants. A zoning by-law amendment would be
required to implement the new design and potential tenants have not been
identified.
Other vacant space in the node includes the space left by the relocated
Shoppers Drug Mart, which is now located at the south west corner of
Deveron Court and Commissioners Road East, and vacated services along
Commissioners Road East.
3.5.2
Node 2: Wellington
Road
Wellington Road accommodates the majority of Zone 1’s supermarket
space and a relatively large proportion of services.
Node 2: Wellington Rd is located at the western extent of Zone 1: South East
London. While Wellington Rd marks the geographic extent of Zone 1, retail
and service commercial offerings on both sides of the road were measured
for the purpose of this analysis. A mix of commercial land use designations
are present in this node, including Community Shopping Area, Associated
Shopping Area Commercial, Highway Service Commercial and a
Commercial Policy Area.
About 16.2% of the space measured in this node is occupied by three
supermarkets: Loblaws, A&P, and Price Chopper. Together, they account
for the majority (79.1%) of supermarket space in Zone 1: South East
London. While they serve residents in the Zone, a large proportion of their
customers can be assumed to originate from other parts of London because
of their relative location in the Study Area.
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Node 2: Wellington Road also accommodates a significant amount of Zone
1: South East London’s services. More specifically, it accommodates 76.2%
of measured Entertainment, 58.2% of Medical Services, 52.3% of Financial
Services, and 50.9% of Food Services and Drinking Places space in the
Zone.
3.5.3
Node 3: White Oaks
Mall
White Oaks Mall has the highest concentration of commercial space in
Zone 1, the vast majority of it being DSTM+HI.
Node 3: White Oaks Mall is designated Regional Shopping Area in the
London Official Plan. Commercial areas with this designation are intended
to provide a wide range of commercial uses to meet specialized service and
comparison shopping needs and have trade areas that extend beyond the
London municipal boundary.
The vast majority (94.7%) of this node’s commercial space was occupied by
DSTM+HI tenants. Two department stores, The Bay and Wal-Mart, account
for 40.7% of measured space in Node 3: White Oaks Mall. The enclosed
shopping centre has the highest concentration of Clothing and Clothing
Accessories Stores in Zone 1: South East London, representing over half
(55.2%) of that category’s measured space.
3.5.4
Node 4: Exeter Rd
and Wellington Rd
A large proportion of Zone 1’s home and home furniture offerings are
located at Exeter Road and Wellington Road.
Node 4: Exeter Road and Wellington Road is located on the north side of
Highway 401 and consists of both Restricted Service Commercial and
Commercial Policy Area designations. Retail and service commercial
tenants are located in shopping plazas, such as the Cross Roads Centre, and
in free-standing pads along Wellington Road. Like Node 2: Wellington
Road, a portion of the measured space in this node lies outside of Zone 1:
South East London.
This node accommodates a relatively high proportion of Home and Home
Furniture stores compared to other nodes in Zone 1: South East London.
More specifically, it accommodates over a third of the Zone’s Furniture
(30.2%), Home Furnishings (41.8%), and Electronics, Appliances, Computer
and Software Stores (33.7%) measured space.
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Node 4: Exeter Rd and Wellington Rd also accommodates a large proportion
(39.1%) of Zone 1: South East London’s Clothing and Clothing Accessories
Stores space. With respect to services, this node accommodates the greatest
proportion (45.6%) of the Zone’s Repair and Maintenance Services
establishments.
3.5.5
Node 5: South of
Highway 401
Costco is the largest store in Node 5, a tenant that contributes to the high
proportion of DSTM+HI space in this node.
Node 5: South of Highway 401 includes the shopping centres located just
south of the Highway along Wellington Road. This area also has a mix of
commercial land use designations including Restricted Service Commercial,
Community Shopping Area, and Associated Shopping Area Commercial.
Commercial uses are isolated from London’s residential population and
depend, in part, on Highway exposure to attract customers.
The largest tenant in Node 5: South of Highway 401 is a 108,000 sq.ft.
Costco, the only Warehouse Membership Club in Zone 1: South East
London. Other DSTM+HI space is made up of a number of Furniture and
Home Furnishing Stores as well as Home Improvement stores. DSTM+HI
accounts for over three-quarters (79.4%) of the node’s measured space.
Limited amounts of other retail, including at 27,800 sq.ft. Value Village, and
Food Services and Drinking Places make up the rest of the measured
occupied space. The majority (84.3%) of the node’s vacant space was
concentrated in Super Store mall.
3.5.6
Node 6:
Emerging
Commercial
No commercial space was measured in Node 6, however, this is the
location for significant amounts of planned and proposed space.
3.5.7
Node 7: Other South
East London
A mix of other commercial offerings is distributed throughout Node 7.
Node 6: Emerging Commercial includes both the Summerside Shopping
Centre and CCL’s Site located at Commissioners Road East and Highbury
Avenue. While no commercial space was measured in this node at the time
of the inventory, it is emerging as a major location for new retail and service
commercial uses in Zone 1: South East London.
Node 7: Other South East London consists of a variety of FSTM,
DSTM+HI, Other Retail, and Service and Restaurant space. Commercial
21
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
uses are dispersed throughout Zone 1: South East London and tenants are
generally located in relatively smaller commercial units in neighbourhood
plazas.
Node 7: Other South East London accommodates just under half (46.8%) of
Zone 1: South East London’s Convenience and Specialty Food Store space,
which is made up primarily of convenience stores. The node also
accommodates a relatively large proportion (37.5%) of the Zone’s Home
Improvement space. This consists primarily of Hardware Stores and
Plumbing Supplies establishments.
About a quarter (26.8%) of vacant space in the node is concentrated in
Adelaide Southdale Centre while another third (32.0%) was created by the
former Bingo Palace.
3.6
Surrounding
Commercial
There is over 6.88 million sq.ft. of retail and service commercial space in
Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre study.
We expect residents in the Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre Study Areas to shop at the Proposed Development on an
infrequent or occasional basis. It is important to review the type and
distribution of commercial space in these areas to get a better understanding
of the commercial environment that will influence spending patterns of
Study Area residents.
Eight commercial nodes have been identified in Zone 2: Central East
London. Existing commercial in Zone 3: Central Thames Centre have been
grouped into one spatially undefined node.
Node 8: Downtown London
Node 9: Downtown Fringe
Node 10: Hamilton Rd
Node 11: Dundas Street
Node 12: Argyle Mall
Node 13: Clarke Rd
Node 14: Oxbury Mall and Vicinty
Node 15: Other Central East
Node 16: Central Thames Centre Study Area
22
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COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The spatial extent of the commercial nodes are illustrated in Figure 3.3.
Figure 3.3: Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre Commercial Nodes
The Central East London and Central Thames Centre Study Areas
accommodate 6.88 million sq.ft. of commercial space.
A total of 6.88 million sq.ft. of commercial space was measured in Zone 2:
Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre. The inventory
includes commercial space in London’s Downtown and Downtown Fringe
areas, which accounted for 47.5% of the measured space in the two Zones.
Table 3.2 summarizes the commercial inventory measured in the two Study
Areas. Details of the inventory are presented in Appendix A.
23
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Table 3.2: Summary of Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre Commercial
Space by Node, June 2007
Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre
Zone 2: Central East London
Node 8
Node 9
Node 10
Node 11
Node 12
Node 13
Node 14
Node 15
Total Node
8 to 15
Node 16
Downtown London
Downtown Fringe
Hamilton Rd
Dundas St
Argyle Mall
Clarke Rd
Oxbury Mall and
Vicinity
Other Central East
Total FSTM
Department Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Vacant Space
Vacancy Rate
Total
Zone 2:Central East
London and
Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre
Central East London
Study Area
Central Thames Centre
Study Area
0
81,200
81,200
10,900
111,700
122,600
20,700
57,200
77,900
0
105,800
105,800
32,800
0
32,800
32,600
0
32,600
111,200
15,800
127,000
134,800
83,300
218,100
343,000
455,000
798,000
12,800
13,400
26,200
355,800
468,400
824,200
9,500
35,100
26,500
103,700
8,700
16,600
12,700
48,700
44,500
31,900
337,900
0
25,700
43,500
79,500
62,900
25,300
32,200
46,500
35,700
26,200
377,500
0
4,700
7,700
0
2,100
2,700
19,100
3,400
7,500
5,600
52,800
0
112,100
53,200
7,200
39,900
27,700
30,500
8,900
18,600
164,500
462,600
124,500
9,900
1,800
54,500
5,400
0
2,500
30,100
0
0
228,700
0
29,800
12,200
0
2,000
5,900
1,600
2,600
0
10,800
64,900
0
27,100
1,000
5,200
17,600
1,600
6,500
15,800
12,300
0
87,100
79,000
91,800
35,800
7,800
6,800
6,100
13,800
18,600
15,300
46,700
321,700
213,000
336,200
181,700
257,900
145,400
85,900
118,900
174,600
133,900
285,700
1,933,200
0
4,600
4,600
0
10,800
0
0
600
7,500
10,100
38,200
213,000
340,800
186,300
257,900
156,200
85,900
118,900
175,200
141,400
295,800
1,971,400
11,900
10,200
13,700
35,800
85,100
7,300
24,400
116,800
3,300
8,700
6,200
18,200
62,400
6,900
10,500
79,800
0
8,900
24,000
32,900
0
2,300
0
2,300
5,600
8,700
0
14,300
18,000
9,900
3,400
31,300
186,300
62,900
82,200
331,400
0
11,800
19,500
31,300
186,300
74,700
101,700
362,700
293,100
2,100
79,800
80,400
24,100
160,600
151,000
115,600
906,700
278,500
42,300
72,000
15,600
50,800
50,400
208,300
66,700
784,600
48,900
15,900
25,000
11,700
26,900
5,200
26,800
0
160,400
120,100
23,200
32,600
33,700
30,700
16,200
73,200
44,800
374,500
16,200
500
9,000
3,900
1,500
1,000
0
9,100
41,200
23,700
14,300
8,700
2,100
1,800
0
4,500
1,600
56,700
35,200
5,000
18,700
10,400
11,000
6,300
13,000
3,600
103,200
133,700
35,100
61,900
39,900
53,500
13,100
40,200
107,300
484,700
949,400
138,400
307,700
197,700
200,300
252,800
517,000
348,700
2,912,000
11,700
0
9,300
6,700
10,100
11,900
2,800
1,300
53,800
961,100
138,400
317,000
204,400
210,400
264,700
519,800
350,000
2,965,800
1,361,600
237,500
1,599,100
14.9%
1,401,500
268,700
1,670,200
16.1%
309,300
27,100
336,400
8.1%
1,022,700
54,400
1,077,100
5.1%
335,600
0
335,600
0.0%
156,500
17,700
174,200
10.2%
331,600
23,100
354,700
6.5%
1,055,800
126,800
1,182,600
10.7%
5,974,600
755,300
6,729,900
11.2%
149,500
1,400
150,900
0.9%
6,124,100
756,700
6,880,800
11.0%
Source: Malone Given Parsons Ltd., June 2007
3.6.1
Zone 2: Central East
London
Zone 2: Central East London accommodates a range of commercial uses
and includes the Downtown and a Regional Shopping Area.
Over 6.7 million sq.ft of commercial space was measured in Zone 2: Central
London. The majority of FSTM space (57.0%) is concentrated in
Convenience and Specialty Food Stores. A mix of DSTM+HI and Other
Retail space, representing 28.7% and 4.9% of the measured inventory, is
located in the zone. Services make up a significant proportion of the
measured space, representing 43.3% of the total. This zone has a vacancy
rate of 11.2%.
The majority of retail and service commercial space in Zone 2: Central East
London was located in Node 8: Downtown London (23.8%), Node 9:
Downtown Fringe (24.8%), and Node 11: Dundas Street (16.0%). While
these nodes accommodate a significant amount of the DSTM+HI, Other
Retail, and Service space, there are few retail anchors besides food stores.
Node 8: Downtown London is intended to act as the focal point of the City,
providing for a broad range of uses, including retail, service commercial, and
entertainment. Recent development in the downtown has included new
residential towers and major renovations to London Galleria to convert
former retail space to office space. The July 2007 draft Downtown Strategy
Study prepared by urbanMetrics inc. and Meridian Planning Consultants Inc.
as part of the City’s Commercial Policy Review recommends strengthening
the role of residential, office, cultural and entertainment uses in the
downtown.
24
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The node accommodates about 1.6 million sq.ft. of retail and service
commercial space. Over half (56.7%) of the space measured in this node is
Services and Restaurants, the largest proportion being for Food Services and
Drinking Places. About a fifth (21.1%) of Node 8: Downtown London’s
space is occupied by DSTM+HI tenants, the greatest proportion (30.7%)
being occupied by Clothing and Clothing Accessories stores. A large
amount of vacant space exists in this node, most of it located along Dundas
Street and Richmond Street.
Node 9: Downtown Fringe includes a mix of designated commercial land
that surrounds the Downtown. It accommodates almost half (45.7%) the
Zone’s Second Hand Merchandise stores and a large proportion of both
DSTM+HI (19.5%) and Services and Restaurants (26.9%) space, most of
which fronts Dundas Street.
The draft Downtown Strategy Study
recommends that existing commercial districts surrounding the downtown
core be identified as “Gateway Corridors” to recognize their unique
attributes and functions. While a draft land use schedule has not yet been
prepared to identify potential Gateway Corridor locations, it is assumed
these streets would qualify as such.
The other nodes in Zone 2: Central East London accommodate a mix of
commercial space in a variety of built forms in a number of commercial
designations. A Regional Shopping Area designation is located in Node 12:
Argyle Mall. This shopping centre accommodates a 32,800 sq.ft. No Frills
supermarket and a 124,500 sq.ft. Wal-Mart department store. Recent
redevelopment work has introduced larger tenants, such as Winners and
Mark’s Work Warehouse, as well as some freestanding commercial.
3.6.2
Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre
Study Area
The majority of commercial space in Zone 3 is concentrated in the
community of Dorchester.
The majority of the 150,900 sq.ft. of retail and service commercial space
measured in Zone 3: Central Thames Centre is concentrated in the
community of Dorchester. A 12,800 sq.ft. Foodland supermarket is the
largest retailer in the community. Other large tenants include The Beer Store
at 9,200 sq.ft. and Dorchester Meats at 5,000 sq.ft. Services, such as Other
Professional Services, Food Services and Drinking Places, Medical Services,
and Personal and Laundry Services make up the bulk of measured service
space.
25
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Outside of Dorchester, a significant amount of DSTM+HI space was
measured in the community of Nissouri at Trail End, a 30,000 sq.ft.
commercial facility that includes a large furniture store, a hardware store,
and a weekend farmers market.
3.6.3
Other London
Commercial Space
Other commercial locations in London influence Study Area residents’
spending patterns.
In addition to Study Area’s retail and service commercial space, there is a
significant amount of additional space located in the rest of the City of
London. Figure 3.4 identifies the location of major shopping areas.
Figure 3.4: Major Commercial Locations in the Study Area and the Rest of London
26
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
As shown in Figure 3.5, Study Area residents have a choice of 30
supermarkets in the City of London and in Central Thames Centre. The four
supermarkets identified within Zone 1: South East London represent only a
small proportion (13%) of the entire City’s supermarket locations.
Figure 3.5: Supermarket Locations in the Study Area and the Rest of London
By comparison, there are 13 department stores within the Study Area and the
rest of the City of London combined. The City’s three Sears department
stores and Kingsmills are located beyond the Study Area. Wal-Mart, Zellers,
and The Bay stores are located both within and beyond the Study Area
boundaries. Figure 3.6 illustrates the locations of the City of London’s
department stores.
27
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Figure 3.6: Department Store Locations in the Study Area and the Rest of London
3.7
Major Planned and
Proposed
Commercial Space
Three planned and proposed commercial projects could add up to 409,100
sq.ft. of retail and service commercial space to the Study Area.
There are currently three major planned or proposed commercial projects in
the Study Area, one in each of the three Study Area zones. Together, they
could add up to 409,100 sq.ft. of additional commercial space. Table 3.3
provides proposal details and Figure 3.7 identifies their locations within the
Study Area.
28
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Table 3.3: Planned and Proposed Commercial Developments in the Study area, July 2007
Map
Number
Location
Site Size
(hectares)
Development Details
1
Commissioners Rd E. &
Highbury Ave.
12.4
Under Construction/Supermarket on hold
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust is currently building Summerside Shopping Centre, a 321,900 sq.ft.
community shopping centre which will be anchored by a RONA and Loblaws. Ancillary retail and service
commercial space includes: a free-standing Bank of Montreal, a pod that will include Starbucks, Mr.Sub,
Dollar Blitz, Pet Valu, Great Glasses, Nice One Nails, First Choice Haircutters, and Pizza Pizza. Additional
tenants can be accommodated in a second pod but potential tenants have not yet been identified.
*This space has not been included in the updated inventory.
2
Dundas Street and Veterans
Memorial Parkway
2.8
Official Plan and Zoning By-law Amendment
Fisher Topsoil & Landscape Supplies is undertaking an Official Plan Amendment and Zoning By-law
Amendement to permit a range of retail and service commercial uses on the front portion of this property.
3
Dorchester Rd & Queen St
-
Supermarket Renovation
Foodland is renovating their store to reorganize its internal layout. Expected completion date is October
2007. The size of the store remains at approximately 12,800 sq.ft. and is included in our inventory.
Total
15.2
Additional GFA Potential
(sq.f.t)
RONA 103,900
Loblaws 178,900
Bank of Montreal 5,000
Pizza Pizza 2,200
First Choice Haircutters 1,100
Nice One Nails 1,500
Great Glasses 1,600
Pet Value 2,000
Dollar Blitz 4,000
Mr. Sub 1,400
Starbucks 1,500
Available 18,800
Total - 321,900
87,200
No Additional Space
409,100
Figure 3.7: Major Planned and Proposed Commercial Developments, July 2007
29
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The largest planned commercial development is located just south of the
CCL Site in Node 6: Emerging Commercial at the south east corner of
Commissioners Road East and Highbury Avenue. Summerside Shopping
Centre, currently under construction by RioCan, will be a 321,900 sq.ft.
community shopping centre anchored by a RONA and Loblaws. Ancillary
retail and service commercial space includes a free-standing Bank of
Montreal, which will relocate from its current location at Pond Mills Square,
and a retail pad that will include Starbucks, Mr.Sub, Dollar Blitz, Pet Valu,
Great Glasses, Nice One Nails, First Choice Haircutters, and Pizza Pizza.
Additional tenants can be accommodated in a second pad but none have yet
been identified. A site plan will be required for the new Loblaws store, but
no plans have yet been submitted to the City.
A copy of RioCan’s leasing site plan is provided in Figure 3.8.
Figure 3.8: Leasing Site Plan for RioCan’s Summerside Shopping Centre
Source: RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust, retrieved August 1, 2007 from https://riocan.com/property/property.cfm?property_id=204
Note: The RONA sq.ft. used in this analysis is based on City of London building permit data, not this leasing site plan.
30
3.8
Beyond the City of
London
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Major concentrations of regional serving commercial space in other cities
and towns outside of the Study Area have some influence on shopping
patterns in Zone 1: South East London. The following section provides an
overview of shopping centres, major anchors and commercial facilities
outside of the Study Area in St.Thomas and Ingersoll. These are shown in
Figure 3.9.
Figure 3.9: Regional Context
St. Thomas
The City of St. Thomas is located to the south of London.
concentrations of retail and service commercial space include:
Major
the 412,424 sq.ft. St. Thomas SmartCentre located at Talbot Street and
First Avenue, is anchored by a 117,200 sq.ft. Real Canadian Superstore,
a 107,000 sq.ft. Wal-Mart, and a 72,000 sq.ft. Canadian Tire; and,
31
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
the 264,600 sq.ft. Elgin Mall, an enclosed mall located at Highview
Drive and Wellington Street, is anchored by an 86,900 sq.ft. Zellers and
a 35,600 sq.ft. A & P.
Ingersoll
Located east of London, the Town of Ingersoll acts as an economic focal
point in the western portion in the County of Oxford, satisfying the daily
shopping needs of local residents.
Major shopping facilities include:
the 31,700 sq.ft. Ingersoll Plaza located at 70 Charles Street (Charles
Street and Thames Street) that includes a 12,000 sq.ft. Foodland
supermarket;
the 32,700 sq.ft. Ingersoll Plaza located at 111 Charles Street (Charles
Street and Mutual Street) that includes a 21,000 sq.ft. Giant Tiger store;
and,
the 22,800 sq.ft. Canadian Tire store, located at Charles Street and
Mutual Street.
32
4.0
STUDY AREA
SPENDING
4.0
STUDY AREA SPENDING
This section includes an analysis of population within the Study Area,
income, and spending, and a calculation of Study Area expenditure potential
for FSTM and DSTM+HI stores.
As described in Section 3, the Study Area delineated for this analysis
represents the area from which the Proposed Development is expected to
draw the majority of its sales on a consistent basis. The remaining sales
(called inflow) originates from people residing beyond the Study Area
boundaries who shop at the facilities occasionally, and from a transient
population of visitors, students, tourists, and business people who travel
through the area. The selection of a Study Area is intended to provide a
geographic basis for analyzing the existing and future interaction between
consumers and retail facilities located in South East London. The three
zones that make up the Study Area are depicted in Figure 4.1.
Figure 4.1: South East London Study Area
33
4.0
STUDY AREA SPENDING
4.1
Trade Area
Population
and Projections
The Study Area population grew moderately between 2001 and 2006.
Statistics Canada Census data provides a reliable estimate of historic resident
population. Unadjusted population estimates indicate that the total Study
Area experienced moderate growth between 2001 and 2006. The Study
Area population increased from 161,230 in 2001 to 162,380 in 2006, an
increase of 1,160 or 0.7% over the five years. Zone 1: South East London
accommodated 29.1% of the Study Area’s population growth over that time.
Historic population growth is presented in Table 4.1.
Table 4.1: Trade Area Population Distribution
Zone 1:
Zone 2:
Zone 3:
Total
South East London
Central East London
2001
Census
2006
Census
Absolute
Growth
Percent
Change
(Unadjusted)
(Unadjusted)
(5 Years)
(5 Years)
Average
Annual
Growth
36,341
116,479
8,405
161,225
36,678
117,042
8,661
162,381
337
563
256
1,156
0.9%
0.5%
3.0%
0.7%
67
113
51
231
Source: Unadjusted 2006 Census population estimates based on disseminations area level data available from
Statistics Canada and accessed using PCensus. Unadjusted 2001 Census population estimates based on 2006
dissemination areas calculated by using block level data available from Statistics Canada and accessed using
PCensus.
The Study Area population is estimated to be 169,870 in 2007.
population is forecast to increase to 175,990 by 2015.
The
Based on historical and current census estimates and municipal population
projections, we estimate the Study Area population to increase by about
6,360, from 169,630 in 2007 to 175,990 in 2015. Zone 1: South East
London is forecast to experience the greatest amount of growth of the three
Study Area zones as units in plans of subdivision are built out. Study Area
population projections are presented in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2: Trade Area Population and Projections
2006 Census Undercount 2006 Census
(Unadjusted) Adjustment
Adjusted
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
36,678
3.84%
38,140
38,635
39,645
40,680
41,745
42,840
117,042
3.84%
121,720
121,905
122,275
122,645
123,015
123,385
Zone 3: Central Thames Centre
8,661
3.84%
9,010
9,090
9,255
9,425
9,595
9,765
Total Study Area
162,381
168,870
169,630
171,175
172,750
174,355
175,990
Source: Malone Given Parsons Ltd. based on registered and draft approved units in City of London, Vacant and Underutilized Residential Land
Summary, June 1, 2007; population projections in Clayton Research, Employment, Population, Housing and Non-Residential Construction
Projections, City of London, Ontario, 2006 Update, September 29, 2006; and, population projections in Municipality of Thames Centre Official Plan,
August 2004.
Note: The 2006 Census undercoverage error is based on the calculated undercoverage for the City of London and the Municipality of Thames Centre
respectively in the 2001 Census. 2006 undercoverage estimates are not yet available.
34
4.0
STUDY AREA SPENDING
Study Area population and population projections were based on various
inputs, base data, and components including:
Census information;
An adjustment to 2006 Census population to account for an
undercoverage of 3.84% in the City of London and the Municipality
of Thames Centre;
Reference to municipal-wide population and unit projections for the
City of London as detailed in Employment, Population, Housing and
Non-Residential Construction Projections, City of London, Ontario,
2006 Update prepared by Clayton Research and dated September 29,
2006.
Reference to units in Plans of Subdivision in the City of London as
detailed in Vacant and Underutilized Residential Land Summary
dated June 1, 2007.
Reference to municipal-wide population and unit projections for the
Municipality of Thames Centre as detailed in the Thames Centre
Official Plan adopted by Municipal Council October 27, 2004.
Reference to units in Plans of Subdivision for the Municipality of
Thames Centre as detailed in conversation with Thames Centre staff.
The number of residential units in approved and draft approved Plans of
Subdivision in the City of London demonstrate the opportunities for
residential growth in the vicinity of the Site. There are 2,510 units in
approved and draft approved plans in Zone 1: South East London and
approximately 920 in Zone 2: Central East London. At 2.6 people per unit,
these units could potentially accommodate almost 9,000 additional residents.
This is significantly greater than the increase of 5,690 residents in Zones 1
and 2 by 2015 adopted in our projections. Details of units in Plans of
Subdivisions and additional unit potential on vacant land are presented in
Appendix B.
4.2
Trade Area
Income and Per
Capita
Spending
Study Area per capita spending for various retail and service commercial
categories is based on retail sales reported by Statistics Canada at the
Ontario level. Ontario average per capita spending (published in Statistics
Canada Retail Trade catalogue #63-005) is adjusted to local Study Area
zones by indexing Study Area average per capita household income to the
Ontario average. Income indexes are adjusted to reflect variation in income
by Study Area zone and then applied to the Ontario per capita FSTM and
DSTM+HI spending.
35
4.0
STUDY AREA SPENDING
Household income levels in Zones 1 and 2 are lower than the provincial
average while Zone 3 is higher.
Table 4.3 employs average household income and persons per household
from the 2001 Census to calculate average household income on a per capita
basis for each Study Area. This is then indexed to the Ontario average.
Zone 3: Central Thames Centre is the only zone that has per capita
household income index (105.8) above the Ontario average. By comparison,
Zone 1: South East London has an income index of 80.7 while Zone 2:
Central East London has an income index of 83.4.
Table 4.3: Study Area Income and Income Indexes
Total
Province of Ontario
City of London
2001
Number of
Households
Persons
Living in
Private
Households
Average
Persons Per
Household
Average
Household
Income
2000
Per Capita
Household
Income
Per Capita
Income
Indexed to
Ontario
13,180
50,600
2,920
66,700
33,360
113,640
8,400
155,400
2.7
2.3
2.9
2.3
$53,939
$47,508
$75,943
$50,024
$19,977
$20,656
$26,187
$21,749
80.7
83.4
105.8
87.9
4,219,410
-
11,254,730
-
2.7
2.4
$66,836
$57,589
$24,754
$23,995
100.0
96.9
Sources: Average persons per household and average income are based on 2001 Census data from PCensus.
Note: Total Average Household Income is a weighted average based on the number of households.
Income levels influence per capita spending on various goods and services.
Our analysis of Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending data for
Ontario residents’ spending by income group shows that spending on
Department Store Type Merchandise and Home Improvement (DSTM+HI)
related items varies significantly with increased income levels relative to
spending on Food Store Type Merchandise (FSTM).
The FSTM and DSTM+HI indexes presented in Table 4.4 reflect the
relationship between income and resident spending on FSTM and
DSTM+HI by Study Area zone. Income indexes are multiplied by the
Ontario average per capita FSTM and DSTM+HI expenditures to calculate
income adjusted per capita expenditures for each Study Area zone. Our
definition and derivation of Ontario 2006 Food and DSTM+HI per capita
expenditures are presented in Appendix C. This is the most recent available
year-end data that has been released in Statistics Canada’s Retail Trade
catalogue.
36
4.0
STUDY AREA SPENDING
Study Area resident 2006 FSTM expenditures average $1,905 per capita
while DSTM+HI expenditures average $4,690 per capita.
Table 4.4 sets out our adjustments for income elasticity and the regression
equations used to make these adjustments, as well as the resulting estimates
of per capita spending for each Study Area zone.
Table 4.4: Study Area Per Capita FSTM and DSTM+HI Expenditures
Per Capita
Income
Indexed to
Province
Total
80.7
83.4
105.8
87.9
2006
2006
Food Store
Per Capita DSTM + HI Per Capita
Expenditure Food Store Expenditure DSTM + HI
Index
Expenditure
Index
Expenditure
98.1
98.3
100.6
98.8
$1,895
$1,900
$1,940
$1,905
88.8
90.4
103.4
93.0
$4,480
$4,560
$5,215
$4,690
Province of Ontario
100.0
100.0
$1,930
100.0
$5,045
Notes: Expenditure indexes were calculated using a regression analysis of relevant components of the Statistics
Canada 2005 Survey of Household Spending for Ontario. The resulting linear equations are as follows:
FSTM Index = (0.1 x Income Index) + 90
DSTM + HI Index = (0.58 x Income Index) + 42
Ontario per capita expenditures were derived from Statistics Canada Retail Trade Catalogue #63-005 (in
Appendix C)
4.3
Study Area FSTM
Expenditure
Potential
Study Area resident FSTM expenditures is estimated at $324.2 million in
2007. It is forecast to increase by $25.4 million by 2015.
Study Area per capita expenditures are multiplied by existing and forecast
population to derive market expenditure potential (in millions of dollars)
generated in each Study Area zone. All dollar values are expressed in 2006
dollars, adjusted to include real growth in per capita expenditures, which is
forecast to increase by about 0.5% per annum. The rate reflects historic
long-term growth rates.
The forecast of Study Area FSTM expenditure potential is presented in
Table 4.5. Study Area resident FSTM spending is forecast to increase from
$324.2 million in 2007 to $349.6 million in 2015.
37
4.0
STUDY AREA SPENDING
Table 4.5: Study Area FSTM Expenditure Potential Forecast (in 2006 Constant Dollars)
In 2006 Constant Dollars
2006
2007
2009
2011
Population
Per Capita Expenditure
Expenditure Potential ($m)
Population
Population
Total Study Area
Population
Cumulative Increase from 2007
Percent Increase from 2007
2013
2015
38,140
$1,895
$72.3
38,635
$1,905
$73.6
39,645
$1,925
$76.3
40,680
$1,945
$79.1
41,745
$1,960
$81.8
42,840
$1,980
$84.8
121,720
$1,900
$231.3
121,905
$1,910
$232.8
122,275
$1,930
$236.0
122,645
$1,950
$239.2
123,015
$1,970
$242.3
123,385
$1,985
$244.9
9,010
$1,940
$17.5
9,090
$1,950
$17.7
9,255
$1,970
$18.2
9,425
$1,990
$18.8
9,595
$2,010
$19.3
9,765
$2,030
$19.8
168,870
$321.0
169,630
$324.2
171,175
$330.5
$6.4
2.0%
172,750
$337.0
$12.9
4.0%
174,355
$343.4
$19.3
5.9%
175,990
$349.6
$25.4
7.8%
Note: Real growth in spending forecast to increase at 0.5% per annum.
4.4
Study Area
DSTM+HI
Expenditure
Potential
Study Area resident DSTM+HI spending is estimated a $788.1 million in
2007. It is forecast to increase to $921.0 million by 2015.
Per capita DSMT+HI expenditures in the Study Area are derived in the same
manner as the preceding FSTM forecast. Per capita expenditures are
multiplied by existing and forecast population to calculate market
expenditure potential in each zone. All figures are expressed in 2006
constant dollars, adjusted to include real growth in per capita expenditures,
which in the case of DSTM+HI spending is forecast at 1.5% per annum.
Table 4.6 provides details on the forecast growth of DSTM+HI expenditures
over the forecast period. In 2007, Study Area residents expenditures on
DSTM+HI is estimated at $788.1 million. Spending, expressed in 2006
constant dollars, is forecast to increase to $921.0 million by 2015, a
cumulative increase of $132.9 million from 2007.
38
4.0
STUDY AREA SPENDING
Table 4.6: Study Area DSTM+HI Expenditure Potential Forecast (in 2006 constant dollars)
2006
Population
Population
Population
Total Study Area
Population
Percent Increase from 2007
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
38,140
$4,480
$170.9
38,635
$4,545
$175.6
39,645
$4,685
$185.7
40,680
$4,825
$196.3
41,745
$4,970
$207.5
42,840
$5,120
$219.3
121,720
$4,560
$555.0
121,905
$4,630
$564.4
122,275
$4,770
$583.3
122,645
$4,910
$602.2
123,015
$5,060
$622.5
123,385
$5,215
$643.5
9,010
$5,215
$47.0
9,090
$5,295
$48.1
9,255
$5,455
$50.5
9,425
$5,620
$53.0
9,595
$5,790
$55.6
9,765
$5,965
$58.2
168,870
$772.9
169,630
$788.1
171,175
$819.5
$31.3
4.0%
172,750
$851.4
$63.3
8.0%
174,355
$885.5
$97.3
12.3%
175,990
$921.0
$132.9
16.9%
Notes: Real growth in spending forecast to increase at 1.5% per annum.
39
5.0
MARKET
DEMAND AND
IMPACT
5.0
MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT
There are several approaches used by retail analysts to test the market for
new commercial development. In this section, an analysis of existing
spending patterns and a forecast in the shift of those patterns as a result of
the introduction of new commercial space is carried out to evaluate market
impact.
The analysis begins by determining existing spending patterns of residents of
the three Study Area zones. These patterns include the existing amount of
consumer expenditure, the allocation of this expenditure amongst various
store types, and the further allocation to existing retail facilities to establish
current sales levels. This provides an assessment of existing strength, market
share, and sales performance by spending category.
The next step forecasts how these patterns can be expected to shift with
population growth, real growth in spending, and the introduction of new
planned and proposed retail facilities. These shifts include the potential for
reducing outflow from Zone 1: South East London, and the potential for
increasing sales from Zone 2: Central East London, Zone 3: Central Thames
Centre and beyond. Other shifts may include anticipated changes in the
shares of various store categories as a proportion of total spending as a result
of new space additions (for example, an increase in the supermarket share of
FSTM spending arising from the addition of a new supermarket).
The introduction of new commercial floor space will almost always create
some level of impact through normal market competition. It is the
assessment of competitive impacts that provides a basis for understanding
the market and planning implications of major new additions in the retail
environment. The impact issue is analyzed in the latter parts of this section.
5.1
Existing
Shopping
Patterns
A significant amount of consumer research has been carried out in order to
establish the existing shopping patterns of Study Area residents and to
establish market characteristics of the Study Area’s major retail areas. This
research includes:
Customer origin surveys carried out by Malone Given Parsons
Ltd. in November 2004 and March 2007 at various City of London
commercial locations; and,
An in-home consumer survey of residents within the Study Area
carried out in June 2007.
40
5.0
These surveys provide useful information regarding consumer shopping
patterns, customer preferences, and customer origin of local residents and
visitors to Zone 1: South East London. Survey results provide useful input
into the retail commercial market demand and impact analysis which
follows.
5.1.1
Customer Origin
Licence Plate
Surveys
Customer origin licence plate surveys offer an indication of the magnitude of
the drawing power of retail and commercial facilities and the geographic
extent that customers will travel to these various establishments. Although
these surveys do not track actual sales and customer spending at commercial
facilities, they provide a good indication of customer origin and subsequent
spending patterns. Details of the survey are presented in Appendix D.
November 2004
In 2004, Zone 1: South East London residents were surveyed in Downtown
London and at the City’s designated Regional Shopping Areas.
In November 2004, Malone Given Parsons carried out customer origin
licence plate surveys in Downtown London and at the City’s four designated
Regional Shopping Areas. The results of the analysis, presented in City of
London Review of Commercial Supply and Demand dated January 2005,
demonstrated that London is a regional centre and the Downtown and
Regional Shopping Areas attracted relatively large proportions of customers
from communities beyond the municipal boundary. The results also showed
that the Downtown tended to attract customers who resided throughout
London while Regional Shopping Centres’ tended to serve customers who
resided in the vicinity of each of the local malls.
The results of the 2004 survey were modified for the purpose of this analysis
to determine what proportion of those surveyed were from the current Study
Area. The results, presented in Table 5.1, demonstrate that about two-thirds
(62.8%) of those surveyed at Argyle Mall were from the Study Area, most
from Zone 2: Central East London. A mere 5.2% were from Zone 1: South
East London. By comparison, White Oaks Mall served a relatively high
proportion of Zone 1: South East London residents in 2004 at 11.9%, not far
behind the proportion of Zone 2: Central East London residents at 11.6%.
41
5.0
Table 5.1: Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey Results, November 2004
Downtown London
White Oaks Mall
Argyle Mall
Westmount
Shopping Centre
Masonville Place
Summary of Study Area
5.5%
22.7%
1.4%
29.6%
11.9%
11.6%
1.4%
24.9%
5.2%
51.3%
6.3%
62.8%
9.2%
5.3%
0.3%
14.8%
3.8%
18.5%
0.3%
22.5%
Other London
Town of Tillsonburg
Township of Strathroy-Caradoc
City of St. Thomas
Town of Ingersoll
City of Woodstock
Other Ontario
Other Canada
Other U.S.
Summary Outside Study Area
44.0%
0.6%
2.0%
1.4%
0.3%
0.6%
21.0%
0.6%
0.0%
70.4%
29.0%
1.4%
1.7%
3.0%
0.8%
3.6%
34.0%
0.6%
1.1%
75.1%
12.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.6%
0.9%
21.3%
0.0%
1.2%
37.2%
59.1%
0.0%
2.9%
2.4%
0.5%
0.5%
19.8%
0.0%
0.0%
85.2%
38.4%
0.3%
2.6%
2.0%
0.0%
1.2%
32.7%
0.0%
0.3%
77.5%
Total
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Source: Malone Given Parsons Ltd., November 18th to November 20th, 2004
Note: MTO provides licence plate survey results by 2001 dissemination area. In some cases, particularly Zone 3: Central Thames Centre, these
boundaries do not correspond exactly to the three-zone Study Area boundary, which was based on 2006 dissemination areas. The results of the licence
plate survey could not be further refined for this analysis. For the purpose of this analysis, any licence plate found to originate in a 2001
dissemination area that was within the Study Area, even only partly, was assumed to be in the Study Area.
March 2007
In March 2007, Malone Given Parsons conducted additional licence plate
surveys to get a better understanding of the drawing power of specific
shopping facilities. More specifically, Pond Mills Square and Argyle Mall
were selected due to their proximity to the Site. White Oaks Mall was
surveyed in an attempt to determine if there were differences between the
drawing power of the Wal-Mart tenant and the rest of the mall based on the
origin of cars parked in front of various mall entrances. Similarly,
SmartCentres Wal-Mart at Fanshawe Park Road West and Hyde Park Road
was selected to determine if there was a difference in the drawing power of
the store’s food store component vs. the department store component based
on the origin of the cars parked in front of each store entrance.
The licence plate survey was conducted over a three-day period in March
2007. A total of 2,638 licence plate records were collected and submitted to
the Ministry of Transportation who subsequently provided the corresponding
Dissemination Area (DA) for each plate match. Table 5.2 provides a
summary the customer origin licence plate results.
42
5.0
Table 5.2: Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey Results, March 2007
SmartCentres
SmartCentres
White Oaks Mall - White Oaks Mall London - Walmart London - Walmart
Walmart
Excluding Walmart
(Main Entrance)
(Food Entrance)
Pond Mills
Argyle Mall
South East London
Central East London
Summary of Trade Area
47.9%
16.5%
2.4%
66.8%
6.5%
44.7%
4.9%
56.1%
21.3%
8.8%
0.8%
30.9%
12.8%
13.4%
1.3%
27.5%
3.5%
9.5%
0.3%
13.3%
2.7%
11.0%
0.5%
14.2%
Other London
Town of Tillsonburg
City of St. Thomas
Town of Ingersoll
City of Woodstock
Other Ontario
Other Canada
Other U.S.
Summary Outside Trade Area
15.9%
0.3%
0.9%
2.1%
1.2%
2.1%
10.9%
0.0%
0.0%
33.2%
17.6%
0.5%
0.8%
1.1%
1.6%
1.6%
20.1%
0.3%
0.3%
43.9%
38.8%
0.5%
1.1%
3.7%
0.0%
0.8%
24.2%
0.0%
0.0%
69.1%
30.2%
1.6%
1.6%
6.1%
1.6%
2.1%
28.9%
0.3%
0.0%
72.5%
53.4%
0.0%
3.8%
0.5%
0.0%
0.3%
28.5%
0.0%
0.3%
86.7%
51.9%
0.0%
2.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.0%
29.9%
0.3%
0.3%
85.8%
Total
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Source: Malone Given Parsons Ltd., March 1st to March 3rd, 2007
boundaries do not correspond exactly to the three-zone Study Area boundary, which was based on 2006 dissemination areas. The results of the licence
dissemination area that was within the Study Area, even only partly, was assumed to be in the Study Area.
Both Pond Mills Square and Argyle Mall serve local residents.
The results of the licence plate survey indicate that the majority of the
customers that visited both Pond Mills and Argyle Mall resided within the
Study Area. Over two-thirds (66.8%) of those surveyed at Pond Mills
resided within the Study Area, 47.9% of which were from Zone 1: South
East London. Similarly, 56.1% of those surveyed at Argyle Mall originated
from within the Study Area, 44.7% resided in Zone 2: Central East London
where the mall is situated.
These findings demonstrate that Pond Mills Square, designated in the
London Official Plan as a Community Shopping Area, is serving customers
residing within a convenient driving distance as specified in Official Plan
policies. By comparison, Argyle Mall, designated in the London Official
Plan as a Regional Shopping Area, served a relatively large proportion
(31.2%) of customers who resided beyond the City of London.
There is a difference between the amount of Zone 1: South East London
customers who shop at White Oaks Mall’s Wal-Mart vs. the rest of the
mall.
While the proportion of customers residing in the larger Study Area is
similar for both White Oaks Mall’s Wal-Mart vs. the rest of the mall (at
30.9% and 27.5% respectively), there is a difference between where each of
43
5.0
the three zone customers’ parked, suggesting there is some difference in
shopping patterns. A relatively large proportion (21.3%) of those surveyed
in front of the mall’s Wal-Mart entrance resided within Zone 1: South East
London. By comparison, these residents only made up 12.8% of those
surveyed at other mall entrances. There was a larger proportion of Zone 2:
Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre surveyed at the
mall entrances than the Wal-Mart entrance.
There was little difference between where customers parked in front of
Wal-Mart’s department store main entrance and the new food store
entrance reside.
Wal-Mart at Fanshawe Park Road West and Hyde Park Road expanded in
the fall of 2006 to become a Wal-Mart Supercentre, which included the
introduction of a food store component. This store has a separate entrance
for the food store component and the traditional DSTM component. The
licence plate survey results indicate that there is only a small difference in
customer origins between either entrance. More specifically, 13.3% of
those surveyed in front of the DSTM entrance originated from the larger
Study Area compared to 14.2% in front of the food store entrance.
5.1.2
Consumer
Surveys
An in-home household consumer survey of 942 households in the South
East London Study Area was carried out in June 2007. Details of the survey
methodology, survey sample size and distribution, a copy of the telephone
survey questionnaire, and summary results of the survey are set out in
Appendix E. The following summarizes the survey results.
These surveys provide useful information regarding consumer shopping
patterns and customer preferences and provide input into the commercial
market demand and impact assessment which follows. The following
summarizes the spending patterns for supermarkets, department stores, and
non-department store DSTM.
Supermarket
Spending Patterns
The four supermarkets in Zone 1: South East London capture only a
small proportion of the Study Area residents’ supermarket spending.
Supermarkets in Zone 1: South East London capture only 39.5% of
supermarket expenditures of residents in that zone. This indicates that there
is a significant amount of outflow to supermarkets in other Study Area
44
5.0
zones and the rest of the City of London. As Figure 3.5 demonstrated, only
4 of the 30 supermarkets in the City of London and in Central Thames
Centre are located in the Study Area.
The results of the consumer survey indicate that the Food Basics in Node 1:
Pond Mills Square and Vicinity captures 10.1% of Zone 1: South East
London residents’ supermarket spending. By comparison, Loblaws, Price
Chopper, and A & P in Node 2: Wellington Road together capture 29.4% of
Zone 1’s supermarket spending. A significant amount of Zone 1: South
East London residents’ supermarket spending is directed to the Real
Canadian Superstore in Zone 2: Central East London, and a second Real
Canadian Superstore and two No Frills supermarkets in other parts of
London.
By comparison, residents of Zone 2: Central East London direct most
(86.0%) of their spending to the nine supermarkets in that zone. They spend
a mere 4.0% of their supermarket expenditures in Zone 1: South East
London. The remaining 10% is directed to other supermarkets in London
and beyond.
Similarly, only a small proportion (6.0%) of Zone 3: Central Thames
Centre’s supermarket expenditures is spent in Zone 1: South East London.
Just over a quarter (26.1%) of supermarket spending is directed to the
Foodland in Dorchester, 37.1% is directed to supermarkets in Zone 2:
Central East London, and 7.7% is directed to other London supermarkets.
The remaining 23.1% of supermarket spending is directed to supermarkets
outside of London and the Study Area, the majority (83.5%) going to the
Your Independent Grocer in Ingersoll.
45
5.0
Figure 5.1: Share of Supermarket Spending Captured by Zone 1: South East London Supermarkets
Department Store
Spending Patterns
Zone 1: South East London department stores capture almost threequarters of local department store spending.
The telephone survey results indicate that just under three quarters (71.9%)
of Zone 1: South East London’s department store expenditures are directed
to department stores in that zone. Residents direct 44.6% of their
department store spending to Wal-Mart in White Oaks Mall, 14.8% to The
Bay in White Oaks Mall, and 12.5% to Zellers in Pond Mills Square.
Residents direct an additional 6.6% of their department store expenditures to
the Wal-Mart in Argyle Mall in Zone 2: Central East London and 5.2% and
6.9% to Sears department stores in Masonville Place and Westmount
Shopping Centre. The remaining department store expenditures are directed
to other department stores in London and beyond.
By comparison, Zone 2: Central East London residents spend almost half of
their department store expenditures (48.8%) to Wal-Mart in Argyle Mall.
About 9.5% of their department store spending is directed to department
46
5.0
stores in Zone 1: South East London, mostly to those in White Oaks Mall.
Residents of Zone 3: Central Thames Centre also direct a significant
amount (41.2%) of their department store expenditures to Argyle Mall’s
Wal-Mart. About a quarter (26.2%) is directed to the department stores in
White Oaks Mall while 4.7% is directed to Zellers in Pond Mills Square.
Figure 5.2: Share of Department Store Spending Captured by Zone 1: South East London Department
Stores
Over half of area residents’ department store spending is directed to WalMart.
Wal-Mart accounts for two of the seven department stores located in the
Study Area. Residents of the three Study Area zones direct between 54.2%
(Zone 1) to 60.8% (Zone 2) of their department store spending to this
retailer. By comparison, Sears attracts between 13.3% and 16.7% of
spending, Zellers between 9.1% and 16.8%, and The Bay between 9.0% and
15.6%.
47
Non-Department
Store DSTM
Spending Patterns
5.0
Over two-thirds of Zone 1: South East London’s residents’ spending in
non-department store DSTM stores is directed to retailers in that zone.
Non-department store DSTM stores is comprised of several retail
categories, including:
Non-department store general merchandise stores, including
Warehouse Membership Clubs (WMC) and Home and Auto
Supply, Tire, Batteries, and Accessories (HATBA) stores;
Pharmacies and personal care stores:
Clothing stores and shoe, clothing accessory and jewelry stores;
Furniture, home furnishing, computer and software and home
electronics and appliance stores; and,
Sporting goods, hobby, music, book and other miscellaneous
retail stores.
Just under two-thirds (61.4%) of Zone 1: South East London residents’
spending in non-department store DSTM stores is captured by stores within
the Zone 1 Study Area. More specifically, residents from Zone 1 direct half
(49.7%) of their Clothing and Clothing Accessory store spending to Node 3:
White Oaks Mall and 36.7% of Sporting, Hobby, Books, Music, and
Miscellaneous retail store spending at retail establishments to Node 2:
Wellington Road.
About a forth (19.8%) of Zone 2: Central East London residents’ direct
their non-department store DSTM store expenditures to Zone 1: South East
London. By comparison, Zone 3: Central Thames Centre spend 39.4% of
their non-department store DSTM store expenditures in Zone 1: South East
London, mostly at the Highway 401 Costco.
48
5.0
Figure 5.3: Share of Non-Department Store DSTM Spending Captured by Zone 1: South East London
Non-Department Store DSTM Stores
5.2
Components and
Allocation of
Spending
The proportion of FSTM and DSTM+HI expenditure from each Study Area
zone by category is based on a number of factors. These include the market
preferences of consumers in each zone, income and demographics, the
availability of specific types of retail competition, the accessibility or
distance to alternate shopping destinations, and the size, diversity and
character of each alternate retail and shopping area.
The components of FSTM spending include the following categories:
Supermarkets; and,
Other speciality food stores.
The components of DSTM+HI spending is comprised of the following
major categories:
Department stores (Wal-Mart, Zellers, Sears, and The Bay);
49
5.0
Other Non-Department Store DSTM stores; and,
Building material/garden equipment/supplies dealers (herein
referred to as “Home Improvement”).
Table 5.3 provides our estimates of the current distribution of Study Area
resident spending amongst the various store categories that comprise FSTM
and DSTM+HI. The allocation of spending among categories is based on a
number of factors including the consumer telephone survey results, the
existing retail floor space inventory and the geographic distribution of retail
floor space, sales estimates, reference to industry sources, and established
provincial trends recorded by Statistics Canada.
Table 5.3: Allocation of FSTM and DSTM+HI Spending by Category:
2007 Estimate
Zone 1:
South East
London
FSTM
Supermarket and Grocery
Specialty Food
Total FSTM
DSTM+HI
Department Stores
Other Non-Deptment Store DSTM
Home Improvement
Total DSTM+HI
5.3
Demand Analysis
Zone 2:
Zone 3:
Central East Central Thames
London
Centre
85.0%
15.0%
100%
84.0%
16.0%
100%
89.0%
11.0%
100%
18.3%
70.4%
11.3%
100.0%
19.0%
70.1%
10.9%
100.0%
14.0%
70.7%
15.3%
100.0%
A demand analysis was carried out to identify market demand in the Study
Area from 2007 to 2015. The analysis examines the existing and future
share of FSTM and DSTM spending directed to each selected store category
from each Study Area zone. The potential sales for stores in the Study Area
is a function of the aggregate amount of spending, the share of that spending
that is directed to the store category, the capture of that spending by existing
stores located in the Study Area, and inflow of sales from beyond the Study
Area.
50
5.0
A portion of the Study Area retail expenditure potential is available to
existing and future commercial facilities in Zone 1: South East London.
Total retail expenditure potential available to Zone 1: South East London is
based on capture of total spending derived from each Study Area zone. This
is described as the “market share”. The proportion of expenditures which
the Study Area zone can obtain from the Study Area is the “market
capture”. This reflects the extent to which Zone 1: South East London
retains expenditures from local residents and captures expenditures from
Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre residents.
In defining these factors, a determination was also reached as to the
percentage of expenditures outflowing from the Study Area to other cities,
towns, and shopping destinations.
Market captures are a function of the size and nature of the existing retail
facilities in Zone 1: South East London, competitive alternative shopping
locations in and around the Study Area, as well as consumer shopping
patronage for various types of goods and services. Consideration was also
given to the location, access to, distribution, density, and demographic
characteristics of population within each of the Study Area zones.
Guidance was also provided from the analysis of the existing share levels,
information on the source of sales derived from the customer origin surveys,
and spending patterns by category generated by the results of the telephone
survey (summarized in Appendices D and E).
Inflow trade from residents who live outside of the Study Area is an
important source of spending potential, particularly for the existing
commercial uses along Wellington Road, in White Oaks Mall, and South
of Highway 401.
In addition to the Study Area capture, spending is derived from people who
live outside of the Study Area but shop at Zone 1: South East London
commercial facilities. This includes other London residents, passer-by
traffic, travelers, and tourists. This source of trade, called “inflow”, is added
to the expenditure potential derived from residents of the Study Area.
Inflow sales from residents who live beyond the Study Area are added to the
Study Area capture of spending for each category. The inflow used in this
analysis is high due to the fact that much of the existing retail in Zone 1:
South East London is situated on the periphery of the Study Area zone and
derives a significant amount of its sales from other London residents.
51
5.3.1
Supermarket
Demand
5.0
Growth in the market and increases in market capture will generate an
additional $70.6 million of potential supermarket sales by 2015.
As shown in Table 5.4, supermarket sales at Zone 1: South East London’s
four supermarkets are estimated to total $96.7 million in 2007. At a
combined average sales performance of $528/sq.ft., this is a healthy
performance based on industry averages for the existing mix and location of
stores. It should be noted that the high inflows in this analysis are attributed
to the influence of food stores on Wellington Road, which marks the
western extent of the Study Area.
For the purpose of this analysis, it is assumed that both a new Loblaws at
Summerside Shopping Centre and CCL’s proposed Wal-Mart department
store will open prior to 2009 such that, for analytical purposes, 2009 will be
the first full year of operation.
It is assumed that the significant increase of supermarket space in Zone 1:
South East London by 2009 will influence the amount of FSTM spending
directed to supermarkets in the Study Area. Similarly, the total share of
supermarket spending that Study Area residents direct to Zone 1: South East
London is also forecast to increase significantly. The increased capture
rates reflect, in part, a repatriation of a large portion of outflow spending
currently directed to Loblaws’ stores in both London and Ingersoll.
52
5.0
Table 5.4: Zone 1: South East London Supermarket Spending and Sales
2007
Expenditure Potential ($M)
$73.6
Supermarket and Grocery Store Share
South East London Capture
85.0%
87.0%
$62.6
39.5%
60.3%
63.1%
$24.7
2015
$76.3
$79.1
$81.8
$84.8
$66.4
$68.8
$71.2
$73.8
$43.4
$44.9
$46.6
$236.0
$239.2
$242.3
$244.9
$203.0
$205.7
$208.4
$210.6
$32.5
$32.9
$33.3
$18.2
$18.8
$19.3
$19.8
$16.8
$17.3
$17.7
$18.2
$6.0
$6.2
$6.4
$79.9
$161.9
$65.2
$81.9
$166.0
$69.3
$84.1
$170.3
$73.6
$40.0
$232.8
84.0%
86.0%
$195.6
4.0%
11.7%
15.8%
$7.8
2009
2011
2013
$23.7
$17.7
89.0%
92.0%
$15.8
6.0%
30.0%
35.0%
$0.9
$5.0
Study Area Total
$33.5
50.8%
49.4%
Total South East London Supermarket and Grocery Sales
Estimated Sales of Existing Supermarket and Grocery Stores
Existing Supermarket and Grocery Store Space
Resultant Sales Performance ($ per sq.ft.)
5.3.2
Department Store
Demand
$68.8
$71.1
$96.7
$139.9
$43.2
$96.7
183,200
$528
Department Store sales are forecast to increase by $62.6 million between
2007 and 2015.
Department store sales in Zone 1: South East London are estimated to total
$107.0 million in 2007, as shown in Table 5.5. Together, the three
department stores – Zellers in Pond Mills Square and The Bay and WalMart in White Oaks Mall – will achieve a sales performance of
approximately $280/sq.ft. in 2007. Based on average store sales for both the
Hudson Bay Company and Wal-Mart, these stores appear to be performing
at healthy rates. Again, high inflows to the department stores at White Oaks
Mall on the periphery of the Study Area reflect the regional drawing power
of that retail facility.
53
5.0
The addition of a new Wal-Mart is expected to increase the proportion of
spending directed to department stores of total DSTM spending for all three
Study Area zones by 2009. As well, the market capture of resident
department store spending from the Study Area is also forecast to increase.
This reflects a recapture of a portion of outflow spending currently directed
to department stores in the rest of London.
Table 5.5: Zone 1: South East London Department Store Spending and Sales
2007
$175.6
Department Store Share
18.3%
22.3%
$32.1
71.9%
81.0%
83.0%
$23.1
$564.4
19.0%
22.0%
$107.4
9.5%
20.3%
22.3%
$10.2
2015
$185.7
$196.3
$207.5
$219.3
$41.4
$43.8
$46.3
$48.9
$36.3
$38.4
$40.6
$583.3
$602.2
$622.5
$643.5
$128.5
$132.6
$137.1
$141.7
$29.6
$30.6
$31.6
$50.5
$53.0
$55.6
$58.2
$11.6
$12.2
$12.8
$13.4
$7.4
$7.8
$8.2
$73.3
$76.8
$80.4
$81.4
$154.7
$47.7
$85.2
$162.0
$55.0
$89.2
$169.6
$62.6
$33.6
2009
2011
2013
$26.1
$48.1
14.0%
23.0%
$6.7
30.9%
58.0%
61.0%
$2.1
$6.7
Study Area Total
$35.4
$66.4
Plus: Inflow @
66.9%
53.3%
52.6%
$71.6
$75.7
Total East London Department Store Sales
$107.0
Estimated Sales of Existing Department Stores
Existing Dept. Store Space
$107.0
381,700
$280
$142.1
$35.0
54
5.0
5.3.3
Non-Department
Store DSTM
Demand
Non-department store DSTM spending is forecast to increase by $87.6
million by 2015 as Zone 1: South East London’s market power increases
and additional space is added.
Non-department store DSTM stores include: General Merchandise;
Pharmacies and Personal Care; Clothing and Clothing Accessories;
Furniture and Home Furnishing; Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music;
and, Other Miscellaneous stores. Zone 1: South East London’s capture of
Study Area resident’s Other Non-Department Store DSTM spending is
forecast to increase as the market power of the zone increases with the
introduction of additional supermarket, department store, and other DSTM
space. Table 5.6 illustrates existing spending and sales at these stores.
Table 5.6: Zone 1: South East London Non-Department Store DSTM Spending and Sales
2007
Non-Dept. Store DSTM Share
$175.6
70.4%
66.9%
$123.6
61.4%
67.0%
$75.8
$564.4
70.1%
67.5%
$395.6
19.8%
23.8%
$78.1
$48.1
70.7%
65.0%
$34.1
39.4%
44.8%
$13.4
2009
2011
2013
2015
$185.7
$196.3
$207.5
$219.3
$124.3
$131.4
$138.9
$146.8
$83.3
$88.0
$93.0
$98.4
$583.3
$602.2
$622.5
$643.5
$393.7
$406.5
$420.2
$434.3
$93.7
$96.7
$100.0
$103.4
$50.5
$53.0
$55.6
$58.2
$32.8
$34.4
$36.1
$37.9
$14.7
$15.4
$16.2
$17.0
$191.7
$200.2
$209.2
$218.7
$294.2
$494.4
$41.9
$307.5
$516.7
$64.2
$321.4
$540.1
$87.6
Study Area Total
Plus: Inflow @
$167.4
63.0%
59.5%
59.5%
Total East London Non-Dept. Store DSTM Sales
Estimated Sales of Existing Non-Dept. Store DSTM Stores
Existing Non-Dept. Store DSTM Space
$285.1
$281.7
$452.5
$473.4
$20.9
$452.5
1,490,800
$304
55
5.4
Impact Evaluation
5.0
With any significant additions of space in a market, several things can be
expected to happen. First, expenditure patterns will shift in response to new
shopping opportunities. The overall drawing power of a collective retail
environment increases causing a recapture of outflow that is currently going
to stores beyond the Study Area. Second, the existing expenditure patterns
shift in response to new shopping opportunities. As the range of choice and
the level of service increases, people from the Study Area spend more
money in the local economy, thus increasing overall retail sales. Third,
some existing retail space may experience some level of direct competition
which may result in sales transfers from existing stores to the new retail
stores.
In Zone 1: South East London, additions of retail space will be supported by
market growth; shifts in current shopping patterns; a recapture of outflow
shopping; and, transfers of sales from existing stores.
The matter of retail market impact ultimately centres on the questions of the
amount of sales lost by existing stores to the new stores, otherwise known as
“sales transfers” and the implications of those lost sales. The implication of
sales transfers, where they may occur, is evaluated in terms of the existing
level of sales performance, the quantum of reduced sales performance, and
the duration. Ultimately, the impact test is focussed on the potential
implications to the continued economic viability and planned function of
commercial areas rather than the competitive impacts on an individual store.
The impact analysis tests potential effects and sales transfers on existing
stores with the addition of new supermarket, department store, and nondepartment store DSTM space in Node 6: Emerging Commercial. The
impact tests assume a first full year of operation in 2009 and forecast
forward to 2015. Detailed impact analysis tables are set out in Appendix F.
In carrying out the analysis of impact arising from the Proposed
Development, assumptions have also been made about the composition of
planned commercial space in Summerside Shopping Centre. Similarly, our
impact evaluation assumes that some vacant space in Pond Mills Square
will be retenanted.
Summerside
Shopping Centre
Summerside Shopping Centre is currently under construction and will
introduce an estimated 321,900 sq.ft. of commercial space to Node 6:
Emerging Commercial by 2009. The impact analysis assumes that the
178,900 sq.ft. Loblaws planned for Summerside Shopping Centre will
consist of supermarket, non-department store DSTM, and service space.
56
5.0
Similarly, the planned 39,100 sq.ft. of CRU space identified on RioCan’s
Site leasing plan is expected to be occupied by a mix of non-department
store DSTM and service tenants.
Pond Mills Square
While we are not aware of any immediate plans that would cause a rapid
take-up of vacant space in Pond Mills Square, our analysis tests the impact
CCL’s Proposed Development would have on a partially retenanted Pond
Mills Square. For the purpose of this analysis, we have assumed that about
half, or 50,000 sq.ft., of Pond Mills’ vacant space will be occupied by nondepartment store DSTM space by 2009. This assumption recognizes the
recommended commercial policy directions presented by London’s
consultants’ that encourage the redevelopment and revitalization of the
City’s existing commercial centres. It also recognizes the intentions of the
current mall owners to renew the site.
CCL’s Proposed
Development
The CCL’s Proposed Development will introduce an estimated 275,000
sq.ft. of commercial space to Node 6: Emerging Commercial. As discussed
in Section 2, the proposed Wal-Mart store will total approximately 215,000
sq.ft. and additional CRU space will total 60,000 sq.ft. For the purpose of
this analysis, we have assumed that the Wal-Mart store will include both
FSTM and DSTM components. These components have been analyzed
separately, since the additional floor space will compete with both existing
FSTM and DSTM space in the Study Area.
Without knowing the final store configuration, tenants, or size of any of
these commercial developments, we have tested the impact based on the
assumptions presented in Table 5.7.
Table 5.7: Impact Evaluation Additional Space Assumptions
Supermarket
Department
Store
NonDepartment
Store DSTM
Total Space
Tested
Services
Home
Improvement
Total Space
80,000
0
0
80,000
0
0
0
0
80,000
0
17,000
97,000
160,000
0
17,000
177,000
18,900
0
22,100
41,000
0
103,900
0
103,900
178,900
103,900
39,100
321,900
0
0
0
0
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
0
0
0
0
50,000
50,000
55,000
0
55,000
135,000
165,000
0
165,000
165,000
0
40,000
40,000
187,000
220,000
40,000
260,000
487,000
0
20,000
20,000
-
0
0
0
-
215,000
60,000
275,000
-
Loblaws
RONA
CRU Space
Total Summerside Space
Pond Mills Square
Take-up of Vacant Space
Total Pond Mills Square Space
CCL's Proposed Development
Wal-Mart
CRU Space
Total CCL's Proposed Development
Total Space Tested
57
5.0
The impact analysis can be considered conservative because it deliberately
overestimates the amount of space that could realistically be expected to
enter the market in 2008 and experience its first full year of operation in
2009. The planning approvals process will likely slow the entry of some
retail and service commercial space to a later date. For the purpose of this
analysis, however, we have assumed the full build-out of Summerside
Shopping Centre and the CCL Site and the retenanting of Pond Mills Square
by the end of 2008.
5.4.1
Supermarket Impact
The market can support the addition of two new supermarkets in Zone 1:
South East London by 2009.
The introduction of 135,000 sq.ft. of additional supermarket space in Zone
1: South East London will result in a shift in current shopping patterns in the
four existing supermarkets in the zone, in other supermarkets in the Study
Area, and in those beyond the Study Area.
It is anticipated that the planned Loblaws in Summerside Shopping Centre
will compete most directly with the existing Loblaws in Node 2: Wellington
Road and the other numerous Loblaw Companies stores in Zone 2: Central
East London and the rest of the City of London. By comparison, the food
component of CCL’s proposed Wal-Mart is expected to compete with other
discount supermarket banners in the Study Area. Table 5.8 provides details
of forecast sales transfers from existing supermarkets in the Study Area.
Table 5.8: Supermarket Impact
Existing
Floorspace
(Sq.ft. GFA):
2007
Including
Additional
Floorspace
(Sq.ft. GFA):
2009
Sales Performance:
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
38,200
38,200
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$12.1
$316
$11.0
$287
-9.1%
$12.4
$326
3.2%
$12.8
$335
6.2%
$13.2
$345
9.3%
145,000
145,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$84.6
$584
$72.0
$496
-14.9%
$77.4
$534
-8.5%
$79.7
$549
-5.9%
$82.0
$566
-3.0%
Loblaws
0
80,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
$0.0
N/A
$33.3
$416
$41.1
$513
$42.0
$525
$42.9
$537
Wal-Mart
0
55,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
$0.0
N/A
$23.7
$430
$30.9
$562
$31.7
$576
$32.5
$590
183,200
318,200
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
$96.7
$528
$139.9
$440
$161.9
$509
$166.1
$522
$170.6
$536
Node 1:
Pond Mills Square and Vicinity
Food Basics
Node 2:
Wellington Road
Loblaws, A & P and Price Chopper
Node 6:
Emerging Node
Commissioners Rd E. and Highbury Ave
Node 6:
Emerging Node
Subtotal Existing and Proposed South East London:
The findings and implications are as follows:
Sales to the new supermarkets in Node 6: Emerging Commercial
will be derived from growth in the market, reallocation of sales
from existing supermarkets in the Study Area and the rest of
58
5.0
London, sales transfers from the four existing supermarkets in Zone
1: South East London, and sales transfers from other FSTM stores.
The introduction of two new supermarkets will together increase
the proportion of FSTM spending directed to supermarkets and
recapture the large outflow of supermarket spending currently
directed to other supermarkets outside the Study Area.
With the addition of 135,000 sq.ft. of new supermarket space, sales
transfers are forecast to reach -9.1% for the Food Basics in Node 1:
Pond Mills Square and Vicinity. In the first year of operation
(2009), the sales will drop to $287/sq.ft. By 2011, however, sales
will increase to $326/sq.ft., 3.2% above current levels. The forecast
sales performance will continue to increase throughout the forecast
period and the temporary competitive transfers to the new
supermarkets will not compromise the viability of the Food Basics.
Sales transfers of the three supermarkets in Node 2: Wellington
Road are forecast to reach -14.9% in 2009, declining to -3.0% in
2015. Sales are expected to decline to $440/sq.ft. in the first year of
operation (2009). This drop reflects the competitive effects of
introducing a new, larger Loblaw Company store in a market that is
made up of a significant amount of this company’s supermarket
space.
The market will be sufficient to support both the Summerside
Shopping Centre Loblaws and the supermarket component of
CCL’s proposed Wal-Mart in 2009.
The food component of existing commercial areas will continue to
be viable and there will be no closures as a result of the new
supermarket space added to Zone 1: South East London.
The two new food stores will significantly increase and improve the
level of retail service to residents of Zone 1: South East London.
5.4.2
Department Store
DSTM Impact
The proposed Wal-Mart department store space can be supported by the
market and would serve to strengthen the level of retail services..
The introduction of 165,000 sq.ft. of additional department store space in
Node 6: Emerging Commercial will result in a shift in department store
shopping patterns in Zone 1: South East London. The proposed Wal-Mart
department store space will increase the department store share of
DSTM+HI spending and Zone 1 captures of department store spending, but,
will also result in sales transfers from existing department stores.
59
5.0
It is anticipated that the proposed Wal-Mart department store space will
compete most directly with the nearby existing Zellers as well as the other
Wal-Mart stores in the Study Area which customers currently patronize and
to which a significant amount of department store spending is directed.
Table 5.9 provides details of forecast sales transfers from existing
department stores.
Table 5.9: Department Store Impact
Existing
Floorspace
(Sq.ft. GFA):
2007
Including
Additional
Floorspace
(Sq.ft. GFA):
2009
Sales Performance:
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
65,700
65,700
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$8.9
$135
$7.1
$109
-19.5%
$7.5
$114
-15.5%
$7.9
$120
-11.2%
$8.3
$126
-6.6%
The Bay
165,000
165,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$29.3
$177
$23.5
$142
-19.9%
$24.5
$149
-16.2%
$25.7
$156
-12.3%
$26.9
$163
-8.2%
White Oaks Mall
Wal-Mart
151,000
151,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$68.9
$456
$51.2
$339
-25.7%
$53.7
$356
-22.0%
$56.4
$374
-18.1%
$59.3
$393
-13.9%
Emerging Node
Wal-Mart
0
165,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
$0.0
N/A
$60.3
$366
$69.0
$418
$72.1
$437
$75.4
$457
381,700
546,700
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
$107.0
$280
$142.1
$260
$154.7
$283
$162.1
$296
$169.8
$311
Node 1:
Zellers
Node 3:
White Oaks Mall
Node 3:
Node 6:
Sales attributed to the proposed Wal-Mart department store space
will be derived from growth in the market, reallocation of sales
from existing department stores in the Study Area and the rest of
London, by sales transfers from the existing Wal-Marts in the
Study Area, and by sales transfers from non-department store
DSTM stores.
Zone 1: South East London’s department stores are generally
healthy, although the small Pond Mills Square Zellers, operating at
$135/sq.ft. in 2007, is not performing as well as other Zellers stores
across the chain.
The introduction of 165,000 sq.ft. of department store space will
together increase the proportion of DSTM spending directed to
department stores and recapture some outflow of department store
spending currently directed to other department stores outside the
Study Area.
The new Wal-Mart department store space will draw sales from
other department stores, but primarily from the other Study Area
Wal-Marts.
60
5.0
The competitive impacts of the addition of department store space
will not affect The Bay or other Wal-Marts.
Pond Mills Square’s Zellers’ sales will decline to the lower end of
the chain’s store performance. We acknowledge that there could
be some risk of closure due to competition, although, the Zellers’
sales will rebound over time. The Hudson Bay Company is
expected to retain the store to maintain strategic market share in
Zone 1: South East London.
The market can support the proposed Wal-Mart department store
space without compromising the viability of existing commercial
areas. The additional space will complement the mix of retail and
commercial uses planned and proposed for Node 6: Emerging
Commercial and will strengthen the level of retail services for
residents.
5.4.3
Non-Department
Store DSTM Impact
Summerside Shopping Centre, a partially retenanted Pond Mills Square, and
CCL’s Proposed Development will add a total of 187,000 sq.ft. of nondepartment store DSTM space to Zone 1: South East London. An estimated
80,000 sq.ft. of the non-department store DSTM space is assumed to be
located in the planned Loblaws store. Table 5.10 provides details of
forecast sales transfers from existing non-department store DSTM stores
and future sales performance.
Table 5.10: Non-Department Store DSTM Impact
Existing
Floorspace
(Sq.ft. GFA):
2007
Including
Additional
Floorspace
(Sq.ft. GFA):
2009
Sales Performance:
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
12,100
62,100
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$9.1
$755
$19.5
$315
-58.3%
$20.4
$329
-56.5%
$21.3
$343
-54.5%
$22.3
$359
-52.5%
Wellington Road
274,200
274,200
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$72.0
$263
$65.7
$240
-8.7%
$68.7
$251
-4.5%
$71.9
$262
-0.1%
$75.2
$274
4.5%
Node 3:
White Oaks Mall
419,700
419,700
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$132.9
$317
$122.1
$291
-8.2%
$127.6
$304
-4.0%
$133.5
$318
0.5%
$139.8
$333
5.2%
Node 4:
Exeter Road and Wellington Road
372,000
372,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$95.0
$255
$88.2
$237
-7.2%
$92.0
$247
-3.2%
$96.0
$258
1.1%
$100.2
$269
5.5%
Node 5:
230,800
230,800
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$115.4
$500
$107.6
$466
-6.8%
$112.3
$487
-2.7%
$117.3
$508
1.6%
$122.6
$531
6.2%
Node 6:
Emerging Node
0
97,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
$0.0
N/A
$29.6
$306
$30.9
$319
$32.3
$333
$33.8
$348
Node 6:
Emerging Node
Commissioners Proposed Commercial
0
40,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
$0.0
N/A
$14.4
$359
$15.0
$374
$15.6
$390
$16.3
$406
Node 7:
Other South East London
182,000
182,000
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
% Change from 2007:
$28.0
$154
$26.2
$144
-6.5%
$27.4
$151
-2.2%
$28.7
$158
2.4%
$30.1
$165
7.2%
1,490,800
1,677,800
Sales ($m):
Sales per sq.ft.:
$452.5
$304
$473.4
$282
$494.4
$295
$516.7
$308
$540.1
$322
Node 1:
Node 2:
Retenanted Commercial Space
Note: The high sales per sq.ft. in Node 1 in 2007 are a result of the very small amount of occupied space being skewed by the high sales performance
of the existing Shoppers Drug Mart, which is typical of Pharmacies.
61
5.0
The new non-department store DSTM space in Node 6: Emerging
Commercial will be mainly supported by growth in the market and
from recapture of outflow spending.
The overall performance of non-department store DSTM space in
Zone 1: South East London is considered to be healthy. The high
sales/sq.ft. in Node 1: Pond Mills Square and Vicinity is attributed
to the Shoppers Drug Mart located in that node. The high
sales/sq.ft. in Node 5: South of Highway 401 is attributed to the
Costco Membership Warehouse Club.
The impact of the proposed non-department store DSTM space in
Zone 1: South East London is forecast to be minor and short in
duration. The high percent change for Node 1: Pond Mills Square
and Vicinity reflects the influence of the addition of 50,000 sq.ft. of
commercial space tenanted by sales categories that generally
generate lower sales per square feet than the existing Shoppers
Drug Mart. Competitive transfers in 2009 are less than 10% for all
other commercial nodes and sales are expected to increase to above
current levels by 2013.
The addition of the proposed non-department store DSTM space
will increase and improve the level of local service to local and
regional area residents and will recapture outflow spending.
Average sales of non-department store DSTM stores are forecast to
remain viable in all retail nodes throughout the study period.
The addition of non-department store DSTM space on the CCL
Site will not compromise the viability of any retail area or
undermine the planned function of any existing or planned retail
area in Zone 1: South East London.
5.5
Opportunities for
the Commissioners
Road East and
Highbury Avenue
Node
Commissioners Road East has the potential to develop into a major
commercial node in south east London.
In September 2007, the City of London’s consultants, urbanMetrics and
Meridian, circulated draft commercial policies to Official Plan Working
Groups and the public for review and comment. While the exact wording of
the policies will be refined, the draft policies provide a good indication of
the changes planning staff expect to make to London’s existing commercial
policies. The draft commercial policies recommend replacing London’s
existing commercial hierarchy with a commercial structure based on the
62
5.0
nodes and corridors approach. It is recommended that commercial nodes be
designated Regional, Sub-Regional, Community and Neighbourhood
Commercial Areas and be distinguished by different sizes, functions, and
locations. Corridor and Main Street Commercial Areas would apply to
pedestrian oriented commercial areas that are concentrated along major
roads in a linear fashion.
The planned and proposed commercial developments at Commissioners
Road East and Highbury Avenue have the potential to create a larger, new
commercial focus for south east London. The addition of commercial space
at this location has the potential to improve the level of service for local
residents and recapture outflows. Growth in the market and the recapture of
expenditures due to increased commercial uses in the node will not only
support additional retail and service commercial space but could serve to
strengthen the performance of existing commercial centres, namely Pond
Mills Square.
While the licence plate survey demonstrated that Pond Mills Square serves
the local community, the inventory revealed the very high vacancy rates
experienced at the centre and the telephone survey demonstrated the lower
than average sales experienced at the Zellers department store. These issues
can be attributed, in part, to the mall’s enclosed retail format, which is
representative of the design of shopping centres built in the 1960s through
to the 1980s. Small enclosed centres, however, represent an obsolete design
as the shopping centre trend moves to unenclosed, freestanding and strip
developments. Because of their unenclosed nature, these centres have lower
common area maintenance (CAM) charges and, in turn, lower rents.
Attractive to shoppers is the fact that parking is provided close to the
retailers they want to visit, making shopping trips faster because they no
longer have to walk the length of the enclosed mall.
The emergence of big box stores and power centres and the consolidation of
department store and supermarket anchors since the early 1990s have forced
mall owners to reinvest in new mall concepts, including de-malling enclosed
centres and incorporating big box retailers and entertainment components
such as large movie theatres and theme restaurants. There are a number of
good examples of successful mall redevelopment efforts in London:
Masonville Place Mall was successful in retenanting vacant space
left by Eaton’s, which closed because of corporate issues, and
Loblaws, which moved to a free-standing building located across the
street. The department store space was retenanted relatively quickly
by The Bay while the supermarket space was replaced by a Famous
63
5.0
Players SilverCity megaplex theatre. The successful regional
centre’s mix of tenants, inclusion of an entertainment facility, and
modern environs all contribute to its ability to continue to draw
customers from a regional area.
Argyle Mall, another of London’s regional centres, underwent major
redevelopment after being purchased by SmartCentres.
The
shopping centre developer transformed it from an underperforming
enclosed centre to a successful shopping area that still includes an
enclosed component but also incorporates some retail and service
commercial pads and outward facing stores. The redevelopment
included the assembly of an adjacent property, the relocation and
expansion of the centre’s anchor tenants, No Frills and Wal-Mart,
and the addition of big box tenants and commercial pads.
Oakridge Mall underwent a process of de-malling in 2004.
Formerly an enclosed shopping centre anchored by a Loblaws
supermarket and a Wal-Mart department store, the RioCan site is
now occupied by a Real Canadian Superstore and a number of
smaller commercial tenants located on pads surrounding the large
supermarket.
Figure 5.4: Before and After Aerial Photographs of Oakridge Mall
2001 – Before Redevelopment
2006 – After Redevelopment
Source: City of London
These local examples demonstrate how the reinvestment in enclosed
shopping centres has the potential to revitalize older shopping areas through
redevelopment. In our opinion, there is significant potential for the
64
5.0
successful redevelopment of Pond Mills Square. The commercial area is
located at the intersection of a Freeway and arterial road on a relatively large
parcel of land that could accommodate a reconfigured shopping centre with
improved site access and visibility. Also, the mall benefits by having two
national chain stores as anchor tenants. These retailers are currently
strategically placed in south east London and reinvestment in Pond Mill
Square would help to lessen the competitive impact of planned and proposed
commercial space on the east side of Highbury Avenue.
Additional commercial uses and a refurbished Pond Mills Square would
strengthen the retail and service offerings in the Commissioners Road East
and Highbury Avenue area and help it transition into a powerful commercial
node.
65
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
This market study and impact analysis has analyzed South East London’s
existing commercial environment and shopping patterns through a
comprehensive inventory of retail and service commercial space, customer
origin surveys, and in-home consumer surveys. The results demonstrate that
while existing supermarket, department store, and non-department store
DSTM stores are operating at healthy sales levels, there is a tremendous
opportunity to increase the capture of expenditures and reduce outflows. The
introduction of additional commercial space at Commissioners Road East
and Highbury Avenue will help to broaden and improve local retail and
service commercial offerings, thereby strengthening the level of retail and
services in the area.
CCL’s 275,000 sq.ft. Proposed Development could experience its first full
year of operation in 2009, the same time as the 321,900 sq.ft. Summerside
Shopping Centre is assumed to be built-out. The introduction of additional
commercial space at both retail facilities will have some implications for
existing commercial areas. Sales transfers from existing stores are expected,
however, they are not at a level that would cause store closures or effect the
viability of existing commercial areas.
The following conclusions respond to City of London’s planning staff’s
concerns about the potential impact of CCL’s Proposed Development on
existing and planned commercial areas in south east London.
The market can support the Proposed Development.
Census data demonstrates that the population in south east London has grown
moderately over the last five years. Units in registered and draft approved
residential plans of subdivision will accommodate a growing population in
south east London. Population growth in the three-zoned Study Area will
support additional supermarket, department store, and non-department store
DSTM stores.
The addition of planned and proposed commercial space will also serve to
increase and improve the level of local service to residents and will recapture
outflow spending and increase captures from surrounding areas.
Together, growth in the market, sales transfers from existing stores both
within the Study Area and beyond, and the reallocation of spending by
FSTM and DSTM categories will support CCL’s Proposed Development.
66
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
The Proposed Development will not compromise the planned function of
White Oaks Mall.
White Oaks Mall is one of the City of London’s Regional Shopping Area
Commercial locations. Official Plan policies on the Functional Categories of
Shopping Areas state:
Regional Shopping Areas are intended to provide for a wide range of
commercial uses which meet specialized service and comparison
shopping needs. Regional Shopping Areas, by reason of their size and
range of uses, are regarded as major activity centres and may have
trade areas that extend beyond the municipal boundary.
City of London Official Plan Section 4.3.1.i)
White Oaks Mall currently serves a very large trade area that extends beyond
the municipal boundaries. The customer origin licence plate survey results
from 2004 and 2007 indicate that over half of White Oaks Mall’s customers
reside outside of the City of London. While the proposed department store
and non-department store DSTM space on the CCL Site will result in sales
transfers from White Oaks Mall, they are not significant enough to cause
store closures. While the Mall’s Wal-Mart department store will experience
the greatest competitive effects, the corporate decision to add additional WalMart space to south east London demonstrates their confidence that the new
space is supportable. CCL’s Proposed Development will not compromise the
planned function of White Oaks Mall.
The introduction of retail and service commercial uses on CCL’s Site will
strengthen existing and planned commercial uses at Commissioners Road
Both the existing Pond Mills Square and the developing Summerside
Shopping Centre are designated Community Shopping Area Commercial in
the City of London Official Plan. Official Plan policies on the Functional
Categories of Shopping Areas state:
Community Shopping Areas are intended to provide for a wide range
of goods and services which are needed on a regular basis.
Community Shopping Areas are smaller in size than Regional
67
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
Shopping Areas and there is less emphasis on comparison shopping
needs and specialized services. Their trade areas are subsidiary to the
trade areas of Regional Shopping Areas and consist of surrounding
neighbourhoods within convenient driving distance.
City of London Official Plan Section 4.3.1.ii)
Customer origin licence plate surveys demonstrate that Pond Mills Square
serves a more local market than White Oaks Mall, with about 80% of its
customers residing in the City of London in 2007. While Pond Mills Square
is an appropriate location for commercial uses and its stores are operating at
reasonable levels, there are significant opportunities to strengthen the local
draw of this retail facility. The addition of commercial space at both
Summerside Shopping Centre and on the CCL Site would create a new
commercial focus in south east London giving Pond Mills Square the
opportunity to reinvent itself through reinvestment and redevelopment.
There is a need to reposition this enclosed shopping centre to stay
competitive.
Fortunately, there is an excellent opportunity for this
commercial centre to find its niche and to benefit from increased
supermarket, department store, and non-department store DSTM captures
resulting from broadened and strengthened commercial offerings at
Commissioners Road East and Highbury Avenue.
Like Pond Mills Square, RioCan’s Summerside Shopping Centre is planned
to serve a more local market than White Oaks Mall. The mix of uses planned
for the RioCan site will no doubt strengthen the level of service in south east
London and help recapture some expenditure outflows. CCL’s Proposed
Development not have a competitive impact on the planned and proposed
uses at Summerside Shopping Centre. Instead, additional commercial in the
vicinity of the development would serve to support and complement the
shopping centre.
Together, Pond Mills Square, Summerside Shopping Centre, and CCL’s
Proposed Development would create a larger, new commercial focus for
south east London, improving the level of service for local residents and
recapturing outflows. CCL’s Proposed Development will not compromise
the planned function of these Community Shopping Areas.
68
APPENDIX A
APPENDIX A
Commercial Inventory
A-1
APPENDIX A:
Commercial
Inventory
APPENDIX A
An inventory of grade related retail, restaurants and service commercial floor
space in nearby shopping areas was carried out in June 2007.
The inventory includes food store type merchandise (FSTM), department
store type merchandise (DSTM), home improvement and building supply
stores, services, restaurants, entertainment, and vacant space.
The following maps illustrate the location of shopping areas within each of
the neighbourhoods located within the Central Study Area Zones. A table
identifying retail store and service classifications used in the inventory
follows. Each of the maps is accompanied by a summary table of the space
measured in each neighbourhood.
A-2
APPENDIX A
Figure A.1: Study Area
A-3
APPENDIX A
Figure A.2: Zone 1: South East London Commercial Nodes
A-4
APPENDIX A
Figure A.3: Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre Commercial Nodes
A-5
APPENDIX A
RETAIL STORE AND SERVICE CLASSIFICATION BY TYPE
NAICS
(1)
CODE
(2)
STORE TYPE
FOOD STORES
44511
44512
1
2
44711
44521
44522
44523
445291
445292
445299
445299
445299
445299
445299
445299
445299
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
CODE
(2)
STORE TYPE
DSTM/HI: CLOTHING AND CLOTHING ACCESSORIES STORES
Supermarket & Other Grocery
Convenience Stores (excl. convenience stores
that sell gasoline)
Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores
Meat Markets
Fish and Seafood Markets
Fruit and Vegetable Markets
Baked Goods Stores
Confectionery and Nut Stores
Cheese stores
Coffee / Tea Stores
Honey
Ice cream (packaged) stores
Milk and other dairy products
Spice and herb stores
Other Specialty Food Stores
DSTM/HI: FURNITURE AND HOME FURNISHINGS STORES
44211
44221
442291
442292
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
NAICS
(1)
Furniture Stores
Floor Coverings Stores (except ceramic)
Window Treatment Stores
Print and Picture Frame Stores
Bedding (sheets, blankets, spreads and pillows)
China / Glassware / Kitchenware
Cutlery Stores
Fireplace Stores
Housewares stores
Lamps and Lighting Fixtures
Linen shops
Mirrors
Pottery stores
44811
44812
44812
44813
44814
44815
44815
44815
44815
44815
44815
44821
44831
44832
448191
448199
448199
448199
448199
448199
448199
448199
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
Men's Clothing Stores
Women's Clothing Stores
Maternity shops
Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores
Family Clothing Stores
Costume Accessories
Hats and Caps
Neckwear, apparel
Personal leather goods
Umbrella Stores
Other Clothing Accessories Stores
Shoe Stores
Jewellery Stores
Luggage and Leather Goods Stores
Fur Stores
Athletic clothing
Bridal shops (except custom dressmakers)
Jeans Stores
Leather (including suede) clothing stores
Lingerie
Swimwear stores
All Other Clothing Stores
DSTM/HI: SPORTING GOODS, HOBBY, BOOK AND MUSIC STORES
45111
45112
45113
45113
45113
45114
45121
45122
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
Sporting Goods Stores (excl. athletic shoe retailing)
Hobby, Toy and Game Stores
Sewing, Needlework and Piece Goods Stores
Knitting Yarn and Accessories
Upholstery Fabric
Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores
Book Stores and News Dealers
Pre-Recorded Tape, CD and Record Stores
DSTM/HI: ELECTRONICS AND APPLIANCE STORES
44311
44311
44311
44311
44312
44313
29
30
31
32
33
34
Appliance, Television and Other Electronics
Cellular Phone Stores
Sewing Machines
Vacuum Cleaner Stores
Computer and Software Stores
Camera and Photographic Supplies Stores
DSTM/HI: BUILDING MATERIAL/ GARDEN EQUIPMENT/
SUPPLIES DEALERS
44411
44412
44413
44419
44419
44419
44419
44419
44419
44421
44422
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
45
46
Home Centres
Paint and Wallpaper Stores
Hardware Stores
Kitchen Cabinets
Glass Stores
Ceramic Floor and Wall Tiles
Plumbing Supplies
Roofing Material Dealers
Fencing Dealers
Outdoor Power Equipment Stores
Nursery and Garden Centres
DSTM/HI: HEALTH AND PERSONAL CARE STORES
44611
44612
44612
44613
446191
446199
47
48
49
50
51
52
Pharmacies and Drug Stores
Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies
Perfume Stores
Optical Goods Stores
Food (Health) Supplement Stores
Other Health and Personal Care Stores
DSTM/HI: GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES (Incl. HATBA)
45211
45291
452999
452991
83
84
85
86
44131
44132
87
88
Department Stores
Warehouse Clubs and Superstores
All Other General Merchandise Stores
Home and Auto Supplies Stores
(e.g. Canadian Tire)
Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores
Tire Dealers
DSTM/HI: MISCELLANEOUS STORE RETAILERS
45311
45321
45322
45391
45392
453999
453999
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
Florists
Office Supplies and Stationery Stores
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores
Pet and Pet Supplies Stores
Art Dealers
Artists' Supplies
Party Supplies Stores
OTHER RETAIL:
SECOND HAND MERCHANDISE
45331
45331
96
97
Antiques
Used Merchandise Stores
OTHER RETAIL: LIQUOR / BEER / WINE
44531
44531
44531
103
104
105
Liquor
Beer
Wine (not wine making)
OTHER RETAIL: MISCELLANEOUS
453999
453999
453999
453999
98
99
100
101
Auctioneering, with own facilities
Hot-tubs and whirlpools
Tobacco Stores and Stands
Numismatic Supplies (coin)
453999
45393
102
106
Philatelic Supplies (stamps)
Manufactured (Mobile) Home Dealers
453992
6599
107
108
Beer and Wine-Making Supplies Stores
Other Retail (misc.)
A-6
APPENDIX A
RETAIL STORE AND SERVICE CLASSIFICATION BY TYPE
NAICS
(1)
CODE
(2)
STORE TYPE
SERVICES:
FOOD SERICES AND DRINKING PLACES
72211
72211
72221
72221
72221
72221
72221
72232
72233
72241
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
Full-Service Restaurants, licensed
Full-Service Restaurants, unlicensed
Cafeteria
Coffee Shops
Doughnuts/Sandwich
Take out Restaurants
Fast Food Restaurants
Caterers
Mobile Food Service
Bars/Beer Parlours/Brassieres/Cocktail Lounges/Night Clubs
ENTERTAINMENT
51213
71312
71321
71329
71391
71392
71394
71395
71399
71399
71399
71399
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
Cinemas/Film Festivals/Theatres
Amusement Arcade
Casinos (except Casino Hotels)
Other Gambling Industries
Golf Courses and Country Clubs
Skiing Facilities
Fitness and Recreational Sports Centres
Bowling Centres
Dance Halls
Miniature Golf Courses
Pool Halls
Shooting Ranges
NAICS
(1)
CODE
(2)
STORE TYPE
OTHER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
53131
52421
5411
5231
54121
162
163
164
165
166
Real Estate
Insurance Agencies and Brokerages
Legal Services
Brokerage
Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping
and Payroll Services
OTHER SERVICES
49111
49211
513
56142
51412
81
167
168
169
170
171
172
Postal Service
Couriers
Broadcasting & Telecommunications
Telephone Call Centres
Library
Other Service
n/a
44111
44112
44121
44122
173
174
175
176
177
VACANT
New Car Dealers
Used Car Dealers
Recreational Vehicle Dealers
Motorcycle, Boat and Other Motor Vehicle Dealers
91
178
Public Administration
n/a
179
Other Office
REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE SERVICES
81111
81112
811192
811199
811199
81142
811411
811412
81149
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
Automotive Mechanical and Electrical Repair and Maintenance
Automotive Body, Paint Interior and Glass Repair
Car Washes
Tire Repairing
Emissions Testing Services
Reupholstery and Furniture Repair
Home and Garden Equipment Repair and Maintenance
Appliance Repair and Maintenance
Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance
PERSONAL AND LAUNDRY SERVICES
81211
81219
81219
81219
81219
81219
81219
81219
81231
81232
81291
81292
81299
56151
53223
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
Hair Care and Esthetic Services
Ear Piercing Services
Hair Removal/Replacement Services
Massage Parlours
Saunas
Tattoo Parlours
Weight Reduction Centres
Tanning Salon
Coin-Operated Laundries and Dry Cleaners
Dry Cleaning and Laundry Services (except Coin-Operated)
Pet Care (except Veterinary) Services
Photo Finishing Services
Other Personal Services
Travel Agencies
Video Tape and Disc Rental
FINANCIAL SERVICES
52211
52213
47
48
Banking
Local Credit Union
MEDICAL SERVICES
62111
62121
62131
62132
621
157
158
159
160
161
Offices of Physicians
Offices of Dentists
Offices of Chiropractors
Offices of Optometrists
Other Health Care Services
A-7
APPENDIX A
Table A.1: Zone 1: South East London Commercial Space, June 2007
Node 1
Node 2
Node 3
Node 4
Node 5
Node 6
Node 7
Total Node
1 to 7
Pond Mills Square
and Vicinity
Wellington Rd
White Oaks Mall
Exeter Rd &
Wellington Rd
Emerging
Commercial
Other South East
London
South East London
Study Area
Total FSTM
38,200
7,400
45,600
145,000
23,200
168,200
0
2,000
2,000
0
5,100
5,100
0
500
500
0
0
0
0
33,600
33,600
183,200
71,800
255,000
Department Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
65,700
0
10,400
0
0
0
0
0
1,700
0
77,800
0
23,200
30,800
17,300
1,000
25,300
38,400
90,800
47,400
9,000
283,200
316,000
91,200
11,500
253,000
3,500
3,100
13,200
34,800
9,400
0
735,700
0
5,000
4,200
179,000
56,700
46,000
37,800
1,500
41,800
17,300
389,300
0
154,700
0
0
42,200
22,700
0
11,200
0
31,200
262,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,500
21,400
9,100
84,500
12,900
22,700
22,000
4,900
34,500
216,500
381,700
278,600
78,300
458,400
187,900
110,000
112,100
160,300
105,200
92,000
1,964,500
0
0
0
0
0
12,500
2,300
14,800
0
0
200
200
0
0
0
0
27,800
0
3,800
31,600
0
0
0
0
3,200
0
7,100
10,300
31,000
12,500
13,400
56,900
15,300
0
13,600
6,100
6,700
0
800
0
42,500
151,800
26,400
31,300
26,800
36,600
26,900
36,600
64,200
400,600
11,500
0
3,000
12,200
2,700
300
0
0
29,700
65,300
30,000
6,900
2,500
0
1,200
1,800
0
107,700
16,700
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16,700
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37,600
9,400
23,400
3,600
16,900
12,000
17,100
20,100
140,100
298,200
65,800
78,200
51,200
62,900
40,400
56,300
84,300
737,300
165,900
123,000
288,900
42.6%
866,800
26,400
893,200
3.0%
767,600
9,200
776,800
1.2%
502,100
7,800
509,900
1.5%
310,800
19,100
329,900
5.8%
0
0
0
n/a
400,500
77,600
478,100
16.2%
3,013,700
263,100
3,276,800
8.0%
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Vacant Space
Vacancy Rate
A-8
APPENDIX A
Table A.2: Zone 1: South East London Commercial Space Percent by Node
Node 1
Node 2
Node 3
Node 4
Node 5
Node 6
Node 7
Total Node
1 to 7
Pond Mills Square
and Vicinity
Wellington Rd
White Oaks Mall
Exeter Rd &
Wellington Rd
Emerging
Commercial
Other South East
London
South East London
Study Area
Total FSTM
20.9%
10.3%
17.9%
79.1%
32.3%
66.0%
0.0%
2.8%
0.8%
0.0%
7.1%
2.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
46.8%
13.2%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Department Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
17.2%
0.0%
13.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
4.0%
0.0%
8.3%
39.3%
3.8%
0.5%
23.0%
34.3%
56.6%
45.1%
9.8%
14.4%
82.8%
32.7%
14.7%
55.2%
1.9%
2.8%
11.8%
21.7%
8.9%
0.0%
37.4%
0.0%
1.8%
5.4%
39.0%
30.2%
41.8%
33.7%
0.9%
39.7%
18.8%
19.8%
0.0%
55.5%
0.0%
0.0%
22.5%
20.6%
0.0%
7.0%
0.0%
33.9%
13.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.6%
27.3%
2.0%
45.0%
11.7%
20.2%
13.7%
4.7%
37.5%
11.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
17.2%
26.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
89.7%
0.0%
28.4%
55.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.3%
0.0%
53.0%
18.1%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Services
Entertainment
5.1%
0.0%
17.4%
11.9%
10.7%
0.0%
1.4%
0.0%
5.8%
50.9%
40.1%
40.0%
52.3%
58.2%
66.6%
65.0%
76.2%
54.3%
3.9%
0.0%
3.8%
23.8%
4.3%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
4.0%
21.9%
45.6%
8.8%
4.9%
0.0%
3.0%
3.2%
0.0%
14.6%
5.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
12.6%
14.3%
29.9%
7.0%
26.9%
29.7%
30.4%
23.8%
19.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Vacant Space
5.5%
46.8%
8.8%
28.8%
10.0%
27.3%
25.5%
3.5%
23.7%
16.7%
3.0%
15.6%
10.3%
7.3%
10.1%
0.0%
n/a
0.0%
13.3%
29.5%
14.6%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
A-9
APPENDIX A
Table A.3: Zone 1: South East London Commercial Space Percent by Category
Node 1
Node 2
Pond Mills Square and
Vicinity
% of Sub% of Total
Total
Node 3
Wellington Rd.
% of Total
% of SubTotal
Node 4
White Oaks Mall
% of Total
% of SubTotal
Node 5
Exeter Rd. & Wellington
Rd.
% of Sub% of Total
Total
Node 6
% of Total
% of SubTotal
Node 7
Emerging Commercial
% of Total
% of SubTotal
Total Node 1 to 7
Other South East Zones
% of Total
% of SubTotal
South East London Study
Area
% of Sub% of Total
Total
Total FSTM
13.2%
2.6%
15.8%
83.8%
16.2%
100.0%
16.2%
2.6%
18.8%
86.2%
13.8%
100.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.3%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.0%
7.0%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
5.6%
2.2%
7.8%
71.8%
28.2%
100.0%
Department Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
22.7%
0.0%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
26.9%
84.4%
0.0%
13.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.2%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
2.6%
3.4%
1.9%
0.1%
2.8%
4.3%
10.2%
5.3%
1.0%
31.7%
0.0%
8.2%
10.9%
6.1%
0.4%
8.9%
13.6%
32.1%
16.7%
3.2%
100.0%
40.7%
11.7%
1.5%
32.6%
0.5%
0.4%
1.7%
4.5%
1.2%
0.0%
94.7%
43.0%
12.4%
1.6%
34.4%
0.5%
0.4%
1.8%
4.7%
1.3%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.8%
35.1%
11.1%
9.0%
7.4%
0.3%
8.2%
3.4%
76.3%
0.0%
1.3%
1.1%
46.0%
14.6%
11.8%
9.7%
0.4%
10.7%
4.4%
100.0%
0.0%
46.9%
0.0%
0.0%
12.8%
6.9%
0.0%
3.4%
0.0%
9.5%
79.4%
0.0%
59.0%
0.0%
0.0%
16.1%
8.7%
0.0%
4.3%
0.0%
11.9%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
4.5%
1.9%
17.7%
2.7%
4.7%
4.6%
1.0%
7.2%
45.3%
0.0%
2.1%
9.9%
4.2%
39.0%
6.0%
10.5%
10.2%
2.3%
15.9%
100.0%
11.6%
8.5%
2.4%
14.0%
5.7%
3.4%
3.4%
4.9%
3.2%
2.8%
60.0%
19.4%
14.2%
4.0%
23.3%
9.6%
5.6%
5.7%
8.2%
5.4%
4.7%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
0.3%
1.7%
0.0%
84.5%
15.5%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.4%
0.0%
1.2%
9.6%
88.0%
0.0%
12.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
1.5%
2.2%
31.1%
0.0%
68.9%
100.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.4%
1.7%
54.5%
22.0%
23.6%
100.0%
5.3%
0.0%
4.7%
2.1%
2.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
14.7%
36.0%
0.0%
32.0%
14.4%
15.8%
0.0%
1.9%
0.0%
100.0%
17.0%
3.0%
3.5%
3.0%
4.1%
3.0%
4.1%
7.2%
44.8%
37.9%
6.6%
7.8%
6.7%
9.1%
6.7%
9.1%
16.0%
100.0%
1.5%
0.0%
0.4%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.8%
38.7%
0.0%
10.1%
41.1%
9.1%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
12.8%
5.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.0%
21.1%
60.6%
27.9%
6.4%
2.3%
0.0%
1.1%
1.7%
0.0%
100.0%
5.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.1%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.9%
2.0%
4.9%
0.8%
3.5%
2.5%
3.6%
4.2%
29.3%
26.8%
6.7%
16.7%
2.6%
12.1%
8.6%
12.2%
14.3%
100.0%
9.1%
2.0%
2.4%
1.6%
1.9%
1.2%
1.7%
2.6%
22.5%
40.4%
8.9%
10.6%
6.9%
8.5%
5.5%
7.6%
11.4%
100.0%
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Vacant Space
57.4%
42.6%
100.0%
97.0%
3.0%
100.0%
98.8%
1.2%
100.0%
98.5%
1.5%
100.0%
94.2%
5.8%
100.0%
0.0%
n/a
0.0%
83.8%
16.2%
100.0%
92.0%
8.0%
100.0%
A - 10
APPENDIX A
Table A.4: Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3: Central Thames Centre Commercial Inventory
Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre
Node 8
Node 9
Node 10
Node 11
Node 12
Node 13
Node 14
Node 15
Total Node
8 to 15
Node 16
Downtown London
Downtown Fringe
Hamilton Rd
Dundas St
Argyle Mall
Clarke Rd
Oxbury Mall and
Vicinity
Other Central East
Central East London
Study Area
Study Area
0
81,200
81,200
10,900
111,700
122,600
20,700
57,200
77,900
0
105,800
105,800
32,800
0
32,800
32,600
0
32,600
111,200
15,800
127,000
134,800
83,300
218,100
343,000
455,000
798,000
12,800
13,400
26,200
355,800
468,400
824,200
9,500
35,100
26,500
103,700
8,700
16,600
12,700
48,700
44,500
31,900
337,900
0
25,700
43,500
79,500
62,900
25,300
32,200
46,500
35,700
26,200
377,500
0
4,700
7,700
0
2,100
2,700
19,100
3,400
7,500
5,600
52,800
0
112,100
53,200
7,200
39,900
27,700
30,500
8,900
18,600
164,500
462,600
124,500
9,900
1,800
54,500
5,400
0
2,500
30,100
0
0
228,700
0
29,800
12,200
0
2,000
5,900
1,600
2,600
0
10,800
64,900
0
27,100
1,000
5,200
17,600
1,600
6,500
15,800
12,300
0
87,100
79,000
91,800
35,800
7,800
6,800
6,100
13,800
18,600
15,300
46,700
321,700
213,000
336,200
181,700
257,900
145,400
85,900
118,900
174,600
133,900
285,700
1,933,200
0
4,600
4,600
0
10,800
0
0
600
7,500
10,100
38,200
213,000
340,800
186,300
257,900
156,200
85,900
118,900
175,200
141,400
295,800
1,971,400
11,900
10,200
13,700
35,800
85,100
7,300
24,400
116,800
3,300
8,700
6,200
18,200
62,400
6,900
10,500
79,800
0
8,900
24,000
32,900
0
2,300
0
2,300
5,600
8,700
0
14,300
18,000
9,900
3,400
31,300
186,300
62,900
82,200
331,400
0
11,800
19,500
31,300
186,300
74,700
101,700
362,700
293,100
2,100
79,800
80,400
24,100
160,600
151,000
115,600
906,700
278,500
42,300
72,000
15,600
50,800
50,400
208,300
66,700
784,600
48,900
15,900
25,000
11,700
26,900
5,200
26,800
0
160,400
120,100
23,200
32,600
33,700
30,700
16,200
73,200
44,800
374,500
16,200
500
9,000
3,900
1,500
1,000
0
9,100
41,200
23,700
14,300
8,700
2,100
1,800
0
4,500
1,600
56,700
35,200
5,000
18,700
10,400
11,000
6,300
13,000
3,600
103,200
133,700
35,100
61,900
39,900
53,500
13,100
40,200
107,300
484,700
949,400
138,400
307,700
197,700
200,300
252,800
517,000
348,700
2,912,000
11,700
0
9,300
6,700
10,100
11,900
2,800
1,300
53,800
961,100
138,400
317,000
204,400
210,400
264,700
519,800
350,000
2,965,800
1,361,600
237,500
1,599,100
14.9%
1,401,500
268,700
1,670,200
16.1%
309,300
27,100
336,400
8.1%
1,022,700
54,400
1,077,100
5.1%
335,600
0
335,600
0.0%
156,500
17,700
174,200
10.2%
331,600
23,100
354,700
6.5%
1,055,800
126,800
1,182,600
10.7%
5,974,600
755,300
6,729,900
11.2%
149,500
1,400
150,900
0.9%
6,124,100
756,700
6,880,800
11.0%
Total FSTM
Department Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Vacant Space
Vacancy Rate
Total
Zone 2:Central East
London and
Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre
A - 11
APPENDIX B
Units in Plans of Subdivision
APPENDIX B
APPENDIX B:
UNITS IN PLANS
OF SUBDIVISION
APPENDIX B
The following graphic and tables provide details on the location and number of units
in plans of subdivision and the unit potential on Urban Reserve Community Growth
land in Zone 1: South East London, Zone 2: Central East London and Zone 3:
Central Thames Centre by unit type. Also provided are population at build-out
estimates for unbuilt registered and draft approved units based on person per unit
estimates used in Clayton Research’s 2006 population projections and housing
construction for the City of London.
Figure B.1: Location of Vacant Parcels by Development Status
B-1
APPENDIX B
Table B.1: Units in Plans of Subdivision or Urban Reserve Land and Population Estimates, Zone 1
Planning District
Status
Plan No.
Jackson
Jackson
Jackson
Jackson
Subtotal Registered
Registered 33M-plan
Registered 33M-plan
Registered 33M-plan
Registered 33M-plan
33M-525
33M-529
33M-533
33M-551
Jackson
Jackson
Jackson
Glen Cairn
Subtotal Draft Approved
Draft Approved 39T-plan
DENSITY TYPE
Low
Medium
High
TOTAL
Density
Density
Density
114
22
105
0
241
0
29
0
0
29
0
0
0
0
0
114
51
105
0
270
39T-00517
39T-03513
39T-92020
39T-02511
0
151
747
106
1,004
560
0
322
0
882
0
0
354
0
354
560
151
1,423
106
2,240
Jackson
Draft 39T-plan Under Review
Glen Cairn
Draft Approved 39T-plan Under Review
Subtotal Draft Under Review
39T-06507
39T-02501
683
13
1,700
378
0
1,260
900
0
1,254
1,961
13
4,214
Glen Cairn
Designated Residential
Glen Cairn
Glen Cairn
Glen Cairn
Subtotal Designated Residential
GC1
GC2
GC3
GC4
0
0
108
151
259
26
0
0
0
26
0
75
0
0
75
26
75
108
151
360
86
236
52
220
680
1,188
4,392
1,245
3.2
3,984
36
99
22
92
900
1,113
3,310
911
2.3
2,095
22
59
13
55
650
777
2,460
354
1.7
602
144
394
87
367
2,230
3,078
10,162
2,510
.6,681
Jackson
Urban Reserve Community Growth
JC2
Jackson
JC5
Jackson
JC7
Jackson
JC8
Old Victoria Area Planning Study
Subtotal Urban Reserve
Total Units in Plans of Subdivison or on Vacant Residential Land
Total Unbuilt Units Registered or Draft Approved
Assumed Persons per Unit
Additional Population at Build-Out
Source: City of London, Vacant and Underutilized Residential Land Summary, June 1, 2007 and Clayton Research, Employment, Population, Housing
and Non-Residential Construction Projections, City of London, Ontario, 2006 Update, September 29, 2006.
Planning District
Hamilton Road
Argyle
Argyle
Argyle
Huron Heights
Status
Plan No.
39T-04509
39T-01503
39T-98502
39T-99516
39T-05505
Hamilton Road
HR1
Hamilton Road
HR2
Hamilton Road
HR3
Hamilton Road
HR4
Huron Heights
HH10
Huron Heights
HH11
Huron Heights
HH2
Huron Heights
HH6
Huron Heights
HH7
Huron Heights
HH8
Huron Heights
HH9
North London
NL2
Subtotal Designated Residential
Total Unbuilt Units Registered or Draft Approved
Assumed Persons per Unit
Additional Population at Build-Out
DENSITY TYPE
Low
Medium
High
TOTAL
Density
Density
Density
59
16
25
53
125
278
0
0
8
40
481
529
0
0
0
0
112
112
59
16
33
93
718
919
46
0
54
0
0
0
0
59
52
0
0
0
211
278
3.2
890
0
104
0
28
0
178
0
0
0
10
4
16
340
529
2.3
1,217
0
0
0
0
525
0
188
0
0
0
0
0
713
112
1.7
190
46
104
54
28
525
178
188
59
52
10
4
1,248
919
.2,297
Source: City of London, Vacant and Underutilized Residential Land Summary, June 1, 2007 and Clayton Research, Employment, Population, Housing
and Non-Residential Construction Projections, City of London, Ontario, 2006 Update, September 29, 2006.
B-2
APPENDIX B
Planning District
Status
Plan No.
Thames Centre
Thames Centre
Thames Centre
M-516
M-559
M-565
North London
Subtotal Under Review
5-A-2730
DENSITY TYPE
Low
Medium
High
TOTAL
Density
Density
Density
40
8
14
62
0
0
0
0
no unit potential defined
0
0
20
0
0
20
60
8
14
82
0
0
0
B-3
APPENDIX C
Retail Per Capita Expenditure
Definition and Derivation
APPENDIX C
APPENDIX C
RETAIL SALES FOR ONTARIO
AND 2006 PER CAPITA ESTIMATE
TRADE GROUP
FOOD
Supermarkets and Other Grocery (1)
TOTAL FSTM
2006 Ont.
Sales
(m)
Percent
used for
per caps
Sales
Portion
Employed
2006 Sales
per cap
C$21,618.5
C$2,876.9
--
C$21,618.5
C$2,876.9
C$1,704.0
C$226.8
C$3,342.4
C$2,176.8
C$453.7
C$4,038.4
C$10,011.3
C$3,342.4
C$2,176.8
C$453.7
C$4,038.4
C$10,011.3
C$6,631.5
C$1,686.1
C$8,317.6
Sub-total
Percent of
Total FSTM or
DSTM/Hm Impt
C$1,704.0
C$226.8
C$1,930.8
88.3%
11.7%
100.0%
C$263.5
C$171.6
C$35.8
C$318.3
C$789.1
C$789.1
15.6%
C$6,631.5
C$1,686.1
C$8,317.6
C$522.7
C$132.9
C$655.6
C$655.6
13.0%
C$10,556.4
C$10,556.4
C$832.1
C$832.1
16.5%
C$6,926.8
C$2,283.4
C$9,210.2
C$6,926.8
C$2,283.4
C$9,210.2
C$546.0
C$180.0
C$726.0
C$726.0
14.4%
C$18,260.0
C$714.9
C$652.1
C$19,627.0
C$18,260.0
C$714.9
C$652.1
C$1,367.0
C$1,439.3
C$56.3
C$51.4
C$1,547.0
C$1,439.3
C$56.3
C$51.4
C$1,547.0
28.5%
1.1%
1.0%
30.7%
C$3,599.5
C$2,695.4
C$6,294.9
C$283.7
C$212.5
C$496.2
C$496.2
9.8%
C$5,045.9
100.0%
DSTM/Home Improvement
Furniture stores
Home furnishings stores
Computer and software stores
Home electronics and appliance stores
Sub-Total:
Home centres and hardware stores
Specialized building materials and garden stores
Sub-Total
Pharmacies and personal care stores
Clothing stores
Shoe, clothing accessories and jewellery stores
Sub-Total:
Total General Merchandise (2)
Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores (3)
Tire Dealers (3)
Sub-Total
Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores
Miscellaneous store retailers
Sub-Total:
C$3,599.5
C$3,850.6
C$7,450.1
70.0%
Total DSTM/Home Improvement
C$65,172.6
C$45,757.4
C$5,045.9
Source: Retail Trade Catalogue #63-005-XIB
Ontario pop'n in thousands (estimate based on Census 2001 population including undercoverage) July 1, 2006
Population source: Statistics Canada "Quarterly Demographic Statistics, January-March 2007" catalogue 91-002-XWE
12,687.0 (PP)
(1) Supermarkets and Other Grocery excludes Supercentres and Superstores
(2) General Merchandise includes Supercentres and Superstores, and home and auto supply stores (but does not include auto parts and accessory stores)
(3) Statistics Canada special cross-tabulation data
C-1
APPENDIX D
Licence Plate Survey Results
APPENDIX D
APPENDIX D:
CUSTOMER
ORIGIN LICENCE
PLATE SURVEY
November 2004
APPENDIX D
Malone Given Parsons conducted a customer origin licence plate survey at
five retail and service commercial locations in the City of London in
November 2004. The results were first presented in City of London Review
of Commercial Supply and Demand dated January 2005. The following
locations were including in the survey:
Downtown London (street parking and municipal parking lots);
Westmount Shopping Centre;
White Oaks Mall;
Argyle Mall; and,
Masonville Place.
The survey was carried out on the following days at the following times:
Thursday, November 18th, 2004 - 12:00pm to 2:00pm and 4:30pm
to 6:30pm
Friday, November 19th, 2004 - 12:00pm to 2:00pm and 4:30pm to
6:30pm
Saturday, November 20th, 2004 - 11:00am to 1:00pm and 2:30pm
to 4:30pm
A random sample of approximately 60 licence plates were recorded in each
of the above location parking lots during each of the specified times. A
standardized method of selecting every third plate was used in this survey.
All vehicles parked within the designated area were surveyed, including
vehicles with business markings, out-of-province plates, handicap forms and
motorcycles. A special note was made of the business markings and out-ofprovince plates. The surveyor did not include in the survey:
Vans or taxis which were stopped at entrances conducting a
delivery or pick up;
Vehicles delivering to the receiving area; and
Abandoned vehicles.
The surveyor completed a Licence Plate Record Sheet for each time period.
Aside from the licence plate, additional information was recorded, this
included:
Name of survey location;
Date;
Time Period;
D-1
APPENDIX D
Name of Surveyor;
Actual Start Time;
Actual Finish Time;
Weather Conditions;
Special Promotions (major sales, events); and,
Additional information that the surveyor believed was
relevant or likely to affect the shopper turn-out.
The results of the 2004 survey were modified for the purpose of this analysis
to determine what proportion of those surveyed were from the current study
area.
March 2007
In March 2007, Malone Given Parsons conducted additional licence plate
surveys to get a better understanding of the drawing power of specific
shopping facilities in the City of London. Four retail and service commercial
locations were included in the survey:
Pond Mills;
Argyle Mall;
White Oaks Mall – Wal-Mart;
White Oaks Mall – Excluding Wal-Mart;
SmartCentres London Wal-Mart (Main Entrance); and,
SmartCentres London Wal-Mart (Food Entrance)
The survey was carried out using the same methodology as described above
on the following days at the following times:
Thursday, March 1st, 2007 - 12:00pm to 2:00pm and 4:30pm to
6:30pm
Friday, March 2nd, 2007 - 12:00pm to 2:00pm and 4:30pm to
6:30pm
Saturday, March 3rd, 2007 - 11:00am to 1:00pm and 2:30pm to
4:30pm
The following maps and tables summarize the survey findings of both the
2004 and 2007 surveys.
D-2
APPENDIX D
Table D.1: Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey Results, November 2004
Downtown London
White Oaks Mall
Argyle Mall
Westmount
Shopping Centre
Masonville Place
19
79
5
103
43
42
5
90
18
178
22
218
35
20
1
56
13
64
1
78
Other London
Town of Tillsonburg
City of St. Thomas
Town of Ingersoll
City of Woodstock
Other Ontario
Other Canada
Other U.S.
153
2
7
5
1
2
73
2
0
245
105
5
6
11
3
13
123
2
4
272
44
0
0
2
2
3
74
0
4
129
224
0
11
9
2
2
75
0
0
323
133
1
9
7
0
4
113
0
1
268
Total
348
362
347
379
346
Downtown London
White Oaks Mall
Argyle Mall
Westmount
Shopping Centre
Masonville Place
5.5%
22.7%
1.4%
29.6%
11.9%
11.6%
1.4%
24.9%
5.2%
51.3%
6.3%
62.8%
9.2%
5.3%
0.3%
14.8%
3.8%
18.5%
0.3%
22.5%
Other London
Town of Tillsonburg
City of St. Thomas
Town of Ingersoll
City of Woodstock
Other Ontario
Other Canada
Other U.S.
44.0%
0.6%
2.0%
1.4%
0.3%
0.6%
21.0%
0.6%
0.0%
70.4%
29.0%
1.4%
1.7%
3.0%
0.8%
3.6%
34.0%
0.6%
1.1%
75.1%
12.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.6%
0.9%
21.3%
0.0%
1.2%
37.2%
59.1%
0.0%
2.9%
2.4%
0.5%
0.5%
19.8%
0.0%
0.0%
85.2%
38.4%
0.3%
2.6%
2.0%
0.0%
1.2%
32.7%
0.0%
0.3%
77.5%
Total
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Source: Malone Given Parsons Ltd., November 18th to November 20th, 2004
boundaries do not correspond exactly to the three-zone study area boundary, which was based on 2006 dissemination areas. The results of the licence
dissemination area that was within the study area, even only partly, was assumed to be in the study area.
D-3
APPENDIX D
Table D.2 – Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey Results, March 2007
SmartCentres
SmartCentres
Walmart
Excluding Walmart
(Main Entrance)
(Food Entrance)
Pond Mills
Argyle Mall
South East London
Central East London
163
56
8
227
24
165
18
207
80
33
3
116
48
50
5
103
13
35
1
49
10
41
2
53
Other London
Town of Tillsonburg
City of St. Thomas
Town of Ingersoll
City of Woodstock
Other Ontario
Other Canada
Other U.S.
54
1
3
7
4
7
37
0
0
113
65
2
3
4
6
6
74
1
1
162
146
2
4
14
0
3
91
0
0
260
113
6
6
23
6
8
108
1
0
271
197
0
14
2
0
1
105
0
1
320
194
0
10
2
1
0
112
1
1
321
Total
340
369
376
374
369
374
Pond Mills
Argyle Mall
South East London
Central East London
47.9%
16.5%
2.4%
66.8%
6.5%
44.7%
4.9%
56.1%
21.3%
8.8%
0.8%
30.9%
12.8%
13.4%
1.3%
27.5%
3.5%
9.5%
0.3%
13.3%
2.7%
11.0%
0.5%
14.2%
Other London
Town of Tillsonburg
City of St. Thomas
Town of Ingersoll
City of Woodstock
Other Ontario
Other Canada
Other U.S.
15.9%
0.3%
0.9%
2.1%
1.2%
2.1%
10.9%
0.0%
0.0%
33.2%
17.6%
0.5%
0.8%
1.1%
1.6%
1.6%
20.1%
0.3%
0.3%
43.9%
38.8%
0.5%
1.1%
3.7%
0.0%
0.8%
24.2%
0.0%
0.0%
69.1%
30.2%
1.6%
1.6%
6.1%
1.6%
2.1%
28.9%
0.3%
0.0%
72.5%
53.4%
0.0%
3.8%
0.5%
0.0%
0.3%
28.5%
0.0%
0.3%
86.7%
51.9%
0.0%
2.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.0%
29.9%
0.3%
0.3%
85.8%
Total
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
SmartCentres
SmartCentres
Walmart
Excluding Walmart
(Main Entrance)
(Food Entrance)
Source: Malone Given Parsons Ltd., March 1st to March 3rd, 2007
boundaries do not correspond exactly to the three-zone study area boundary, which was based on 2006 dissemination areas. The results of the licence
dissemination area that was within the study area, even only partly, was assumed to be in the study area.
D-4
APPENDIX D
Figure D.1 – Downtown London Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2004
D-5
APPENDIX D
Figure D.2 – White Oaks Mall Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2004
D-6
APPENDIX D
Figure D.3 – Argyle Mall Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2004
D-7
APPENDIX D
Figure D.4 – Westmount Shopping Centre Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2004
D-8
APPENDIX D
Figure D.5 – Masonville Place Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2004
D-9
APPENDIX D
Figure D.6 – Pond Mills Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2007
D - 10
APPENDIX D
Figure D 7 – Argyle Mall Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2007
D - 11
APPENDIX D
Figure D.8 – White Oaks Mall – Wal-Mart Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2007
D - 12
APPENDIX D
Figure D.9 – White Oaks Mall – Excluding Wal-Mart Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2007
D - 13
APPENDIX D
Figure D.10 – SmartCentres London Wal-Mart (Main Entrance) Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2007
D - 14
APPENDIX D
Figure D.11 – SmartCentres London Wal-Mart (Food Entrance) Customer Origin Licence Plate Survey by Dissemination Area, 2007
D - 15
APPENDIX E
Consumer Telephone Survey Details
APPENDIX E
CONSUMER
TELEPHONE
SURVEY
DETAILS
APPENDIX E
A comprehensive consumer telephone survey was carried out over a oneweek period in June 2007. The survey questionnaire was designed by MGP
for the purpose of tracking household spending for a broad range of FSTM
and DSTM+HI retail categories. Respondents were asked about their
expenditures on various retail categories over one, three or six month recall
periods, depending on the category.
The survey sample was drawn from three samples areas based on 2001
dissemination boundaries. In some cases, primarily in Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre, these boundaries did not correspond exactly to the threezone Study Area boundary, which was based on 2006 dissemination areas.
Cases where respondents lived beyond the Study Area boundary, shown in
Figure E.1, were removed from the analysis.
Figure E.1: Study Area Zones
E-1
APPENDIX E
Telephone interviewing began on Friday, June 8th, 2007 and was completed
on Friday, June 15th, 2007. A total of 1,002 telephone surveys were
completed, however, 60 survey results were removed from the analysis
because respondents resided beyond the Study Area boundary.
The number of responses for each Study Area zone are shown in Table E.1.
Table E.1: Distribution of Survey Respondents by Zone
Study Area Zone:
South East London
Central East London
Total Respondents
Frequency
357
373
212
942
Note: Samples were generated using 2001 dissemination areas. In some cases, particularly Zone 3: Central
Thames Centre, these boundaries do not correspond exactly to the three-zone Study Area boundary, which was
based on 2006 dissemination areas. For the purpose of this analysis, any respondent found to reside in a 2001
dissemination area that was outside the current Study Area was removed from the analysis.
A copy of the survey questionnaire is attached.
E-2
APPENDIX E
London and Area Consumer Telephone Survey – June 2007
Survey #
VALIDATION
Market Zone
Supervisor:____________________
Date: ________________________
Contact Date:
______________________
Tel: _____________________________
Respondent Name: ______________________
Address:
______________________
______________________
Postal Code:
[__][__][__] [__][__][__]
________________________________________________________________________________________
Good afternoon/evening! My name is ________________ of Foundation Research Group, an independent
research company. We are conducting a survey on the shopping habits of residents in your market area. I
assure you that we are not selling anything.
A.
May I speak with the main shopper of the household?
Yes
[__]
SKIP TO QUESTION d
No
[__]
GO TO QUESTION b
B.
Is there a better time when I could interview him or her?
Yes
[__]
GO TO QUESTION c
No
[__]
Thank and Terminate
C.
When can I call back?
D.
In the last three months, have you done any shopping whatsoever?
Yes
[__]
GO TO QUESTION E
No/ Don’t know/ Refused
[__]
Thank and Terminate
E.
INTERVIEWER: Ask the appropriate question from the list below for the Sample Area you are
calling:
Is this residence located in…
Interviewer Please Watch Quota and Postal Code
1
2
3
RECORD TIME: _________________________
The City of London, south of the Thames River South Branch
The City of London, between the Thames River South Branch and North Branch
The Municipality of Thames Centre
F.
Could you provide me with your six-digit Postal Code for your permanent address? (Z9Z9Z9 –
Refused)
Postal Code
[__][__][__] [__][__][__]
Code [__] GO TO QUESTION 1a
No/ Refused
[__]
GO TO QUESTION H
G.
Could you please tell me what the closest major intersection is to your home?
_______________________________________________________ [___]
E-3
APPENDIX E
In the following questions, I will ask you about your shopping in various types of stores.
1a).
1b).
In just the PAST MONTH, have you, yourself, shopped at a SUPERMARKET or GROCERY
STORE?
Yes [__] GO TO QUESTION 1b
No [__] GO TO QUESTION 2a
IF THERE IS A “YES” RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER:
i. What is the name of the store and where is it located?
ii. Approximately how much did you spend during the PAST MONTH at this store?
i.
Store Name
i.
Community
Shopping Centre Name/
or Closest Intersection
Store
Code
Circle
ii.
Location
Code
Dollar
Amount
Spent
A&P
London
Nelson Shopping Centre
31
$
A&P
London
Westmount Shopping Centre
31
$
A&P
London
Byron Village Plaza
31
$
A&P
London
Rio Can Center London South
31
$
A&P
London
Adelaide St N & Cheapside St
31
$
A&P
London
Cherry Hill Centre
31
$
A&P
London
Sherwood Forest Mall
31
$
A&P
Tillsonburg
Broadway St & Baldwin St
31
$
A&P
St. Thomas
Wellington St & Fairview Ave
31
$
Food Basics
London
Oxford & Highbury
33
$
Food Basics
London
Pond Mills Square
33
$
Food Basics
London
Commissioners Court Plaza
33
$
Food Basics
London
Bradley Plaza
33
$
Food Basics
Woodstock
Dundas St & Huron St
33
$
Foodland
London
East Lambeth Plaza
25
$
Hurley’s Independent Grocer
Ingersoll
King St W & Whiting St
15
$
IGA
Woodstock
Dundas St & Wilson St
21
$
Knechtel-Foodland
Ingersoll
Charles St W & Thames St S
25
$
Loblaws
London
Wonderland & Southdale
12
$
Loblaws
London
Southdale & Verilum
12
$
Loblaws
London
Rio Can Centre London North
12
$
Loblaws Supercentre
London
Oxford & Sterling
13
$
Loblaws Supercentre
London
Oakridge’s Shopping Centre
13
$
Loblaws Supercentre
St. Thomas
Talbot Street
13
$
No Frills
London
Argyle Mall
14
$
No Frills
London
Wharncliffe & Baseline
14
$
No Frills
London
Northland Mall
14
$
No Frills
London
Fairmont Plaza
14
$
No Frills
London
Fanshawe Park Road West
14
$
Price Chopper
London
Highbury & Trafalgar
23
$
Price Chopper
London
Wonderland Corners
23
$
Price Chopper
London
Adelaide St N & Huron St
23
$
E-4
APPENDIX E
Price Chopper
London
London Mall
23
$
Price Chopper
London
St. Thomas
23
$
Sobeys
London
Fanshawe & Adelaide
24
$
Sobeys
Tillsonburg
Broadway St & Baldwin St
24
$
Valu-Mart
London
Oxford & Wellington
17
$
Other (Specify)
$
$
$
$
$
1c)
2a).
2b).
Have you shopped at any other SUPERMARKET OR GROCERY STORE in the past MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 1b). REPEAT QUESITON 1c) AS OFTEN AS IS NECESSARY.
In the PAST MONTH, have you shopped at any of the following SPECIALTY FOOD STORES
such as a CONVENIENCE STORE, a MEAT, FISH or SEAFOOD MARKET, a FRUIT or
VEGETABLE MARKET, or a BAKERY?
i.
Store Name
Community
i.
Circle
Location
Code
ii.
Dollar
Amount
Spent
Bulk Barn
London
$
Bulk Barn
London
Masonville Place
$
Candyland
London
Colonel Talbot & Main St
$
M&M Meats
London
Boler & Commissioners Rd
$
M&M Meats
London
Pond Mills Plaza
$
M&M Meats
London
Masonville Plaza
$
Other (Specify)
$
$
$
$
2c).
Have you shopped at any other such store in the PAST MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 2b). REPEAT QUESTION 2c) AS OFTEN AS IS NECESSARY.
E-5
APPENDIX E
3a).
In the PAST MONTH, have you shopped at a DRUG, HEALTH SUPPLEMENT or
COSMETICS store?
3b).
i.
Store Name
i.
Community
Circle
ii.
Location
Code
Dollar
Amount
Spent
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Wonderland & Commissioners Rd
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Wharncliffe Plaza
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Commissioners Rd & Boler
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Southdale & Ernest
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Wonderland Corners
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Deveron & Commissioners Rd
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Adelaide & Southdale
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Deveron & Commissioners Rd
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Dundas & Talbot
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Adelaide St N & Oxford St E
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Clark & Trafalgar
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Dundas St & Vancouver St
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Adelaide St N & Kipps La.
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Northland Mall
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Highbury Shopping Plaza
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Cherry Hill Centre
$
Shoppers Drug Mart
London
Masonville Place
$
Pharmasave
London
Spring Bank & Kernohan
$
Pharmasave
London
Byron Village Plaza
$
Pharmasave
London
Wellington Rd & Percy St
$
Pharma Plus
London
Southdale & Ernest
$
Pharma Plus
London
London Galleria
$
Pharma Plus
London
Fanshawe & Adelaide
$
Pharma Plus
London
$
Wilton Pharma Plus
London
Oxford St E & Waterloo St
$
London Medical Pharmacy
London
Adelaide St N & Huron
$
London Medical Pharmacy
London
Dundas St & William St
$
Herbies
London
Dundas St & Spruce St
$
Herbies
London
Hansim Centre
$
GNC
London
Argyle Mall
$
GNC
London
Masonville Place
$
E-6
APPENDIX E
Herbal Magic
London
Argyle Mall
$
Herbal Magic
London
Adelaide Southdale Centre
$
Herbal Magic
London
$
Herbal Magic
London
Fanshawe Park Place
$
Medicine Shop
London
Wharncliffe Rd N & Oxford
$
Medicine Shop
London
Highbury & Huron
$
Medicine Shop
London
Andover Centre
$
Spartan Nutrition
London
$
Spartan Nutrition
London
Byron Baseline & Boler
$
The Body Shop
London
White Oaks Mall
$
The Body Shop
London
Masonville Place
$
Trade Secrets
London
Masonville Place
$
Trade Secrets
London
White Oaks Mall
$
Other (Specify)
$
$
$
$
$
3c)
Have you shopped at any other DRUG, HEALTH SUPPLEMENT OR COSMETICS STORE in the
PAST MONTH?
4a).
In the PAST MONTH, have you shopped at a WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB, such as
Costco or Sam’s Club?
4b).
ii. Approximately how much did you spend on GROCERY items in the PAST MONTH at
this store?
iii. Approximately how much did you spend on NON-GROCERY items in the PAST
MONTH at this store?
i.
Store Name
i.
Circle
Circle
Location
Code
ii.
iii.
NonGrocery
Spending
Community
Shopping Centre
Name/
Store
Code
Grocery
Spending
Costco
London
Wellington Road & Hwy 401
1
$
$
Costco
London
Wonderland & Donahue
1
$
$
Sam’s Club
London
First Pro London Northwest
2
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Other (Specify)
E-7
APPENDIX E
4c)
Have you shopped at any other WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB in the PAST MONTH?
5a).
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a DEPARTMENT STORE, such as the Bay,
Sears, Zellers or Wal-Mart, but excluding Sears Catalogue stores?
5b).
ii. Approximately how much did you spend on GROCERY items in the PAST THREE
MONTHS at this store?
iii. Approximately how much did you spend on NON-GROCERY items in the PAST THREE
MONTHS at this store?
i.
i.
Circle
Community
Shopping Centre
Name/
Store
Code
Bay
London
White Oaks Mall
1
$
$
Bay
London
Masonville Place
1
$
$
Sears
London
2
$
$
Sears
London
Masonville Place
2
$
$
Sears Outlet
London
London Mall
2
$
$
Wal-Mart
London
White Oaks Mall
3
$
$
Wal-Mart
London
Argyle Centre
3
$
$
Wal-Mart
London
3
$
$
Wal-Mart
St. Thomas
Smart Centres – Talbot Road
3
$
$
Wal-Mart
Strathroy
Highway 81 and Carrol Street
3
$
$
Wal-Mart
Tillsonburg
Norfolk Mall
3
$
$
Wal-Mart
Woodstock
3
$
$
Zellers
London
Highway 59 and Highway
401
4
$
$
Zellers
London
Pond Mills Square
4
$
$
Zellers
London
Northland Mall
4
$
$
Zellers
London
Masonville Place
4
$
$
Zellers
St. Thomas
Elgin Mall
4
$
$
Zellers
Tillsonburg
Tillsonburg Town Centre
4
$
$
Zellers
Woodstock
645 Dundas Street
4
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Store Name
Circle
Location
Code
ii.
iii.
Grocery
Spending
NonGrocery
Spending
Other (Specify)
5c)
Have you shopped at any other DEPARTMENT STORE in the PAST THREE MONTHS?
E-8
6a)
6b).
APPENDIX E
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE,
such as Giant Tiger, Sears Catalogue Store, a general store or a dollar store?
ii. Approximately how much did you spend during the PAST THREE MONTHS at this
store?
i.
Store Name
i.
Community
Circle
Location
Code
ii.
Dollar Amount
Spent
A Buck or Two
London
$
A Buck or Two
London
White Oaks Mall
$
A Buck or Two
London
Masonville Place
$
Dollarama
London
$
Dollarama
London
Huron & Highbury
$
Dollarama
London
Dundas St & Parsons St
$
Giant Tiger
London
Spring Bank & Kernohan
$
Giant Tiger
London
Montgomery Plaza
$
Giant Tiger
London
Huron & Highbury
$
Everything for a
Dollar
London
$
Everything for a
Dollar
London
Oxford & Highbury
$
Other (Specify)
$
$
$
$
$
6c)
Have you shopped at any other GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE in the PAST THREE
MONTHS?
E-9
7a).
7b).
APPENDIX E
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at CANADIAN TIRE?
i. Where is this Canadian Tire store located?
store?
i.
Store Name
Community
i.
Circle
ii.
Location
Code
Dollar Amount
Spent
Canadian Tire
London
Wonderland & Southdale
$
Canadian Tire
London
Fanshawe Park Place
$
Canadian Tire
London
Wellington & Bradley
$
Canadian Tire
London
North Horton St E & Colborne St
$
Canadian Tire
London
S Dundas St & Wavell St
$
Canadian Tire
Ingersoll
Charles St E & Thames St N
$
st
Canadian Tire
St. Thomas
Talbot St & 1 Ave
$
Canadian Tire
Tillsonburg
Broadway St & Oxford St
$
Canadian Tire
Woodstock
Norwich Ave & Parkinson Rd
$
Other (Specify)
$
$
7c)
Have you shopped at any other CANADIAN TIRE in the past THREE MONTHS?
8a).
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a TIRE, BATTERY or AUTOMOTIVE
SPECIALTY SHOP, such as a muffler, auto glass or oil and lube shop?
8b).
store?
i.
Store Name
Community
i.
Circle
ii.
Location
Code
Dollar Amount
Spent
$
$
$
$
$
E - 10
APPENDIX E
8c)
Have you shopped at any other TIRE, BATTERY OR AUTOMOTIVE SPCIALTY SHOP in the past
THREE MONTHS?
9a).
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a CLOTHING or CLOTHING
ACCESSORIES stores, such as a MEN’S, WOMEN’S or CHILDREN’S CLOTHING STORE,
a SHOE STORE, or a JEWELLERY STORE?
9b).
store?
i.
Store Name
i.
Community
Circle
ii.
Location
Code
Dollar
Amount
Spent
$
$
$
$
$
9c)
10a).
Have you shopped at any other CLOTHING & CLOTHING ACCESSORIES STORE in the PAST
THREE MONTHS?
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following SPECIALTY stores?
i.
A sporting goods store (excl. athletic clothing)
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO ii.
ii.
A hobby or toy shop or arts and crafts store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO iii.
iii.
A florist
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO iv.
iv.
A pre-recorded tape, CD and record shop, or
a musical instrument and supplies store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO v.
v.
A book and news dealer
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO vi.
vi.
An office supply or stationery store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO vii.
vii.
A gift, novelty, souvenir, party supplies or
greeting cards store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO viii.
viii.
A pet or pet supplies store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO QUESTION 11a
E - 11
APPENDIX E
10b). FOR EACH “YES” RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER:
store?
i.
Store Name
i.
Community
i.
Circle
ii.
Location
Code
Dollar
Amount
Spent
$
$
$
$
ii.
$
$
$
$
iii.
$
$
$
$
iv.
$
$
$
$
v.
$
$
$
$
vi.
$
$
$
$
vii.
$
$
$
$
viii.
$
$
$
$
10c)
Have you shopped at any other SPECIALTY STORE in the PAST THREE MONTHS?
Interviewer Please Note: Repeat this sequence for all 10a) questions, including i. through viii.
E - 12
APPENDIX E
11a).
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following BUILDING
MATERIAL/GARDEN EQUIPMENT DEARLERS?
i.
A home improvement centre (e.g. Home Depot
and Rona)
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 11b
GO TO ii.
ii.
A paint, glass or wallpaper store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 11b
GO TO iii.
iii.
A hardware store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 11b
GO TO 12a.
i. What is the name of the centre/store and where is it located?
centre/store?
i.
Store Name
i.
iii.
Community
Home Depot
Home Depot
London
Home Depot
Circle
ii.
Location
Code
Dollar
Amount
Spent
$
London
Fanshawe & Adelaide
Wharncliffe & Southdale
Woodstock
Norwich Ave & Hwy 401
$
Rona Cashway
London
Clarke Rd & Gore Rd
$
Rona Cashway
London
Wonderland & Beaverbrook
$
Copp’s Buildall
London
Fanshawe & Hyde Park
$
Copp’s Buildall
Copp’s Buildall
London
$
$
London
N Dundas St & Carlyle Dr
York & Thames
Copp’s Buildall
London
Colonel Talbot & Main
$
Copp’s Buildall
Home Hardware Building Centre
London
$
London
Fanshawe & Hyde Park
Willington Rd & Hwy 401
Ingersoll
Culloden Line & Hwy 401
$
ii.
i.
st
$
$
St. Thomas
Talbot ST & 1 Ave
$
Tillsonburg
Tillson Ave & Simcoe St
$
Woodstock
Dundas St E & Wilson St
$
Glidden Paint
London
Southdale & Ernest
$
Décor Centre
London
Pine Valley & Southdale
$
St. Clair Paints
London
Wonderland & McMaster
$
Benjamin Moore
London
Pine Valley & Southdale
$
Solution Paint
London
Fanshawe & Wonderland
$
Para Paint
London
Hansim Centre
$
Cameron Glass & Mirror
London
Hyde Park & Sarnia Rd
$
Lambeth Glass & Mirror
London
Main St & Colonel Talbot
$
Benjamin Moore
Home Hardware
London
$
Ingersoll
Hyde Park & N Routledge
Thames St S & King St W
Tillsonburg
Simcoe St & Potters Rd
$
Home Hardware
$
E - 13
Home Hardware
Home Hardware
APPENDIX E
Woodstock
Springbank Ave & Devonshire Ave
$
London
E Adelaide St N & Huron St
$
Other (Specify)
$
$
$
11c)
Have you shopped at any other such centre/store in the past THREE MONTHS?
Interviewer Please Note: Repeat this sequence for all 11a) questions, including i. through iii.
Interviewer Please Note: The following question is for shopping habits in the past SIX MONTHS.
12a).
In the PAST SIX MONTHS, have you shopped at HOME FURNITURE or FURNISHINGS
stores?
i.
A furniture or appliance store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO ii.
ii.
A TV or stereo store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO iii.
iii.
A china, kitchenware, or bath and linen store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO iv.
iv.
A lamp, carpet or other store selling home
decor
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO v.
v.
A camera and photographic supplies store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO vi.
vi.
A computer store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO QUESTION 13a
ii. Approximately how much did you spend during the PAST SIX MONTHS at this store?
i.
Store Name
i.
ii.
Community
i.
Circle
ii.
Shopping Centre Name/or
Closest Intersection
Location
Code
Dollar
Amount
Spent
United Furniture
London
Super Store Mall
$
Sleep Country
London
Wonderland & Commissioners
$
Sleep Country
London
Argyle Centre
$
Radio Shack
London
Cherry Hill Centre
$
Radio Shack
London
Oxford & Highbury
$
The Source
London
Argyle Centre
$
E - 14
APPENDIX E
iii.
Linens N Things
London
$
iv.
Giant Carpet
London
Super Store Mall
$
Alexanian Carpet
London
$
v.
$
$
vi.
Other (Specify)
$
$
$
12c)
Have you shopped at any other HOME FURNSHINGS STORE in the PAST SIX MONTHS?
Interviewer Please Note: Repeat this sequence for all 12a) questions, including i. through vi.
Finally, these last few questions will help us classify your answers among different groups of consumers.
This information is used only for making statistical tables.
13.
Can you tell me how many people live in your household? [______] RECORD NUMBER
14.
Which of the following represents your age? READ LIST.
Less than 20 years
[___] [1]
20 to 34 years
[___] [2]
35 to 44 years
[___] [3]
45 to 54 years
[___] [4]
55 to 64 years
[___] [5]
65 years or older
[___] [6]
(DO NOT READ) Refused
[___] [7]
15.
Can you tell me in which of the following income ranges would your total household income belong?
READ LIST.
Less than $20,000
[___] [1]
$20,000 to $29,999
[___] [2]
$30,000 to $39,999
[___] [3]
$40,000 to $49,999
[___] [4]
$50,000 to $59,999
[___] [5]
$60,000 to $69,999
[___] [6]
$70,000 to $79,999
[___] [7]
$80,000 to $89,999
[___] [8]
Over $90,000
[___] [9]
(DO NOT READ) Refused
[___] [10]
E - 15
16.
APPENDIX E
Thank you for your time and have a good day.
RECORD SEX OF RESPONDENT
Male
Female
[__] [1]
[__] [2]
_________________________________
Interviewer Signature
E - 16
APPENDIX F:
Impact Analysis Detailed Tables
APPENDIX F
APPENDIX F
Table F.1
Supermarket and Grocery Store Sales and Impact: 2007 Estimate
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Food Basics
% Distribution
$ Distribution
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Loblaws
A&P
Price Chopper
Node 6:
Node 7:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
South East
London
Summerside Commissioners
80,000 sq.ft.
55,000 sq.ft.
Loblaws
Wal-Mart
10.1%
$6.3
29.4%
$18.4
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
39.5%
$24.7
60.5%
$37.8
100.0%
$62.6
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.8%
$1.5
3.2%
$6.3
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
4.0%
$7.8
96.0%
$187.8
100.0%
$195.6
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.7%
$0.3
4.3%
$0.7
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
6.0%
$0.9
94.0%
$14.6
100.0%
$15.6
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
3.0%
$8.1
9.3%
$25.4
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
12.2%
$33.5
87.8%
$240.2
100.0%
$273.7
33.0%
$4.0
$12.1
38,200
$317
70.0%
$59.2
$84.5
145,000
$583
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
65.4%
$63.2
$96.6
183,200
$528
Percent Inflow:
Inflow Sales ($millions):
Total Sales Volume ($millions):
Space in Square Feet:
Average Sales Performance ($ per sq.ft.):
F-1
APPENDIX F
Table F.2
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Food Basics
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Loblaws
A&P
Price Chopper
Node 6:
Node 7:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
South East
London
80,000 sq.ft.
55,000 sq.ft.
Loblaws
Wal-Mart
% Distribution
$ Distribution
8.5%
$5.6
23.8%
$15.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
15.0%
$10.0
13.0%
$8.6
0.0%
$0.0
60.3%
$40.0
39.7%
$26.4
100.0%
$66.4
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.7%
$1.4
2.5%
$5.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
5.5%
$11.2
3.0%
$6.1
0.0%
$0.0
11.7%
$23.7
88.3%
$179.2
100.0%
$203.0
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.7%
$0.3
4.3%
$0.7
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
13.0%
$2.2
11.0%
$1.8
0.0%
$0.0
30.0%
$5.0
70.0%
$11.7
100.0%
$16.8
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.6%
$7.3
7.5%
$21.6
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
8.1%
$23.3
5.8%
$16.6
0.0%
$0.0
24.1%
$68.8
75.9%
$217.3
100.0%
$286.1
33.0%
$3.6
$11.0
38,200
$287
-9.3%
70.0%
$50.4
$72.0
145,000
$496
-14.9%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
30.0%
$10.0
$33.3
80,000
$416
30.0%
$7.1
$23.7
55,000
$430
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
50.8%
$71.1
$139.9
318,200
$440
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F-2
APPENDIX F
Table F.3
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Food Basics
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Loblaws
A&P
Price Chopper
Node 6:
Node 5:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
80,000 sq.ft.
55,000 sq.ft.
Loblaws
Wal-Mart
South East
London
% Distribution
$ Distribution
8.7%
$6.0
24.3%
$16.7
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
15.6%
$10.7
14.5%
$10.0
0.0%
$0.0
63.1%
$43.4
36.9%
$25.4
100.0%
$68.8
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.0%
$2.1
2.8%
$5.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
7.5%
$15.4
4.5%
$9.3
0.0%
$0.0
15.8%
$32.5
84.2%
$173.2
100.0%
$205.7
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.7%
$0.3
4.3%
$0.7
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
15.0%
$2.6
14.0%
$2.4
0.0%
$0.0
35.0%
$6.0
65.0%
$11.2
100.0%
$17.3
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.9%
$8.3
8.0%
$23.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
9.9%
$28.8
7.4%
$21.7
0.0%
$0.0
28.1%
$82.0
71.9%
$209.8
100.0%
$291.8
33.0%
$4.1
$12.4
38,200
$326
2.9%
70.0%
$54.2
$77.4
145,000
$534
-8.4%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
30.0%
$12.3
$41.1
80,000
$513
30.0%
$9.3
$30.9
55,000
$562
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
49.4%
$79.9
$161.9
318,200
$509
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F-3
APPENDIX F
Table F.4
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Food Basics
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Loblaws
A&P
Price Chopper
Node 6:
Node 5:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
South East
London
80,000 sq.ft.
55,000 sq.ft.
Loblaws
Wal-Mart
% Distribution
$ Distribution
8.7%
$6.2
24.3%
$17.3
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
15.6%
$11.1
14.5%
$10.3
0.0%
$0.0
63.1%
$44.9
36.9%
$26.3
100.0%
$71.2
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.0%
$2.1
2.8%
$5.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
7.5%
$15.6
4.5%
$9.4
0.0%
$0.0
15.8%
$32.9
84.2%
$175.5
100.0%
$208.4
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.7%
$0.3
4.3%
$0.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
15.0%
$2.7
14.0%
$2.5
0.0%
$0.0
35.0%
$6.2
65.0%
$11.5
100.0%
$17.7
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.9%
$8.6
8.0%
$23.9
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
9.9%
$29.4
7.5%
$22.2
0.0%
$0.0
28.3%
$84.1
71.7%
$213.3
100.0%
$297.3
33.0%
$4.2
$12.8
38,200
$335
5.9%
70.0%
$55.8
$79.7
145,000
$549
-5.8%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
30.0%
$12.6
$42.0
80,000
$525
30.0%
$9.5
$31.7
55,000
$576
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
49.4%
$82.1
$166.1
318,200
$522
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F-4
APPENDIX F
Table F.5
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Food Basics
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Loblaws
A&P
Price Chopper
Node 6:
Node 5:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
South East
London
80,000 sq.ft.
55,000 sq.ft.
Loblaws
Wal-Mart
% Distribution
$ Distribution
8.7%
$6.4
24.3%
$17.9
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
15.6%
$11.5
14.5%
$10.7
0.0%
$0.0
63.1%
$46.6
36.9%
$27.2
100.0%
$73.8
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.0%
$2.1
2.8%
$5.9
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
7.5%
$15.8
4.5%
$9.5
0.0%
$0.0
15.8%
$33.3
84.2%
$177.4
100.0%
$210.6
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.7%
$0.3
4.3%
$0.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
15.0%
$2.7
14.0%
$2.6
0.0%
$0.0
35.0%
$6.4
65.0%
$11.9
100.0%
$18.2
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.9%
$8.8
8.1%
$24.6
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
9.9%
$30.0
7.5%
$22.7
0.0%
$0.0
28.5%
$86.2
71.5%
$216.4
100.0%
$302.7
33.0%
$4.4
$13.2
38,200
$345
9.1%
70.0%
$57.4
$82.0
145,000
$566
-3.0%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
30.0%
$12.9
$42.9
80,000
$537
30.0%
$9.7
$32.5
55,000
$590
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
49.5%
$84.4
$170.6
318,200
$536
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F-5
APPENDIX F
Table F.6
Department Store Sales and Impact: 2007 Estimate
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Zellers
% Distribution
$ Distribution
Node 2:
Wellington Rd
Node 3:
White Oaks Mall
The Bay
Wal-Mart
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Emerging
Commercial
Other South
East London
Zone 1:
Other
Total
South East
London
Commissioners
165,000 sq.ft.
Wal-Mart
12.5%
$4.0
0.0%
$0.0
14.8%
$4.8
44.6%
$14.3
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
71.9%
$23.1
28.1%
$9.0
100.0%
$32.1
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.5%
$1.6
0.0%
$0.0
3.0%
$3.2
5.0%
$5.4
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
9.5%
$10.2
90.5%
$97.2
100.0%
$107.4
% Distribution
$ Distribution
4.7%
$0.3
0.0%
$0.0
12.0%
$0.8
14.2%
$1.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
30.9%
$2.1
69.1%
$4.6
100.0%
$6.7
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
4.1%
$5.9
0.0%
$0.0
6.0%
$8.8
14.1%
$20.7
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
24.2%
$35.4
75.8%
$110.9
100.0%
$146.2
33.0%
$2.9
$8.9
65,700
$135
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
70.0%
$20.5
$29.3
165,000
$177
70.0%
$48.2
$68.9
151,000
$456
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
66.9%
$71.6
$107.0
381,700
$280
Percent Inflow:
F-6
APPENDIX F
Table F.7
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Zellers
Node 2:
Wellington Rd
Node 3:
White Oaks Mall
The Bay
Wal-Mart
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Emerging
Commercial
Other South
East London
Zone 1:
Other
Total
South East
London
Commissioners
165,000 sq.ft.
Wal-Mart
% Distribution
$ Distribution
8.0%
$3.3
0.0%
$0.0
8.2%
$3.4
24.8%
$10.3
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
40.0%
$16.6
0.0%
$0.0
81.0%
$33.6
19.0%
$7.9
100.0%
$41.4
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.9%
$1.2
0.0%
$0.0
2.2%
$2.8
3.2%
$4.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
14.0%
$18.0
0.0%
$0.0
20.3%
$26.1
79.7%
$102.4
100.0%
$128.5
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$0.3
0.0%
$0.0
7.0%
$0.8
8.3%
$1.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
40.0%
$4.6
0.0%
$0.0
58.0%
$6.7
42.0%
$4.9
100.0%
$11.6
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.6%
$4.8
0.0%
$0.0
3.9%
$7.0
8.5%
$15.3
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
21.6%
$39.2
0.0%
$0.0
36.6%
$66.4
63.4%
$115.1
100.0%
$181.5
33.0%
$2.4
$7.1
65,700
$109
-19.5%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
70.0%
$16.4
$23.5
165,000
$142
-19.9%
70.0%
$35.8
$51.2
151,000
$339
-25.7%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
35.0%
$21.1
$60.3
165,000
$366
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
53.3%
$75.7
$142.1
546,700
$260
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F-7
APPENDIX F
Table F.8
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Zellers
Node 2:
Wellington Rd
Node 3:
White Oaks Mall
The Bay
Wal-Mart
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Emerging
Commercial
Other South
East London
Commissioners
165,000 sq.ft.
Wal-Mart
Zone 1:
Other
Total
South East
London
% Distribution
$ Distribution
8.0%
$3.5
0.0%
$0.0
8.2%
$3.6
24.8%
$10.9
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
42.0%
$18.4
0.0%
$0.0
83.0%
$36.3
17.0%
$7.4
100.0%
$43.8
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.9%
$1.2
0.0%
$0.0
2.2%
$2.9
3.2%
$4.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
16.0%
$21.2
0.0%
$0.0
22.3%
$29.6
77.7%
$103.1
100.0%
$132.6
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$0.3
0.0%
$0.0
7.0%
$0.9
8.3%
$1.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
43.0%
$5.2
0.0%
$0.0
61.0%
$7.4
39.0%
$4.8
100.0%
$12.2
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$5.0
0.0%
$0.0
3.9%
$7.4
8.5%
$16.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
23.8%
$44.8
0.0%
$0.0
38.9%
$73.3
61.1%
$115.2
100.0%
$188.6
33.0%
$2.5
$7.5
65,700
$114
-15.5%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
70.0%
$17.2
$24.5
165,000
$149
-16.2%
70.0%
$37.6
$53.7
151,000
$356
-22.0%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
35.0%
$24.1
$69.0
165,000
$418
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
52.6%
$81.4
$154.7
546,700
$283
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F-8
APPENDIX F
Table F.9
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Zellers
Node 2:
Wellington Rd
Node 3:
White Oaks Mall
The Bay
Wal-Mart
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Emerging
Commercial
Other South
East London
Zone 1:
Other
Total
South East
London
Commissioners
165,000 sq.ft.
Wal-Mart
% Distribution
$ Distribution
8.0%
$3.7
0.0%
$0.0
8.2%
$3.8
24.8%
$11.5
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
42.0%
$19.4
0.0%
$0.0
83.0%
$38.4
17.0%
$7.9
100.0%
$46.3
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.9%
$1.2
0.0%
$0.0
2.2%
$3.0
3.2%
$4.4
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
16.0%
$21.9
0.0%
$0.0
22.3%
$30.6
77.7%
$106.5
100.0%
$137.1
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$0.3
0.0%
$0.0
7.0%
$0.9
8.3%
$1.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
43.0%
$5.5
0.0%
$0.0
61.0%
$7.8
39.0%
$5.0
100.0%
$12.8
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$5.3
0.0%
$0.0
3.9%
$7.7
8.6%
$16.9
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
23.9%
$46.9
0.0%
$0.0
39.1%
$76.8
60.9%
$119.4
100.0%
$196.2
33.0%
$2.6
$7.9
65,700
$120
-11.2%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
70.0%
$18.0
$25.7
165,000
$156
-12.3%
70.0%
$39.5
$56.4
151,000
$374
-18.1%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
35.0%
$25.2
$72.1
165,000
$437
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
52.6%
$85.3
$162.1
546,700
$296
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F-9
APPENDIX F
Table F.10
Node:
Node 1:
Store:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Zellers
Node 2:
Wellington Rd
Node 3:
White Oaks Mall
The Bay
Wal-Mart
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Emerging
Commercial
Other South
East London
Zone 1:
Other
Total
South East
London
Commissioners
165,000 sq.ft.
Wal-Mart
% Distribution
$ Distribution
8.0%
$3.9
0.0%
$0.0
8.2%
$4.0
24.8%
$12.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
42.0%
$20.5
0.0%
$0.0
83.0%
$40.6
17.0%
$8.3
100.0%
$48.9
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.9%
$1.3
0.0%
$0.0
2.2%
$3.1
3.2%
$4.5
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
16.0%
$22.7
0.0%
$0.0
22.3%
$31.6
77.7%
$110.1
100.0%
$141.7
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$0.4
0.0%
$0.0
7.0%
$0.9
8.3%
$1.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
43.0%
$5.8
0.0%
$0.0
61.0%
$8.2
39.0%
$5.2
100.0%
$13.4
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$5.6
0.0%
$0.0
4.0%
$8.1
8.7%
$17.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
24.0%
$49.0
0.0%
$0.0
39.4%
$80.4
60.6%
$123.7
100.0%
$204.0
33.0%
$2.7
$8.3
65,700
$126
-6.6%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
70.0%
$18.8
$26.9
165,000
$163
-8.2%
70.0%
$41.5
$59.3
151,000
$393
-13.9%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
35.0%
$26.4
$75.4
165,000
$457
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
52.7%
$89.4
$169.8
546,700
$311
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F - 10
APPENDIX F
Table F.11
Non-Department Store DSTM Store Sales and Impact: 2007 Estimate
Node:
Store:
Node 1:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Pond Mills
50,000
Other DSTM
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Node 6:
Node 7:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
South East
London
97,000 sq.ft.
40,000 sq.ft.
Other DSTM
Other DSTM
% Distribution
$ Distribution
4.2%
$5.2
11.2%
$13.8
15.9%
$19.6
10.2%
$12.7
12.0%
$14.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
7.8%
$9.7
61.4%
$75.8
38.6%
$47.8
100.0%
$123.6
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.4%
$1.6
3.3%
$13.1
4.5%
$17.8
4.6%
$18.3
5.0%
$19.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
1.9%
$7.6
19.8%
$78.1
80.2%
$317.5
100.0%
$395.6
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.2%
$0.1
5.4%
$1.8
7.1%
$2.4
6.9%
$2.3
15.7%
$5.3
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
4.2%
$1.4
39.4%
$13.4
60.6%
$20.6
100.0%
$34.1
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.2%
$6.8
5.2%
$28.8
7.2%
$39.9
6.0%
$33.3
7.2%
$39.9
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
3.4%
$18.7
30.3%
$167.4
69.7%
$385.9
100.0%
$553.3
25.2%
$2.3
$9.1
12,100
$755
60.0%
$43.2
$72.0
274,200
$263
70.0%
$93.0
$132.9
419,700
$317
65.0%
$61.8
$95.0
372,000
$255
65.4%
$75.5
$115.4
230,800
$500
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
33.3%
$9.3
$28.0
182,000
$154
63.0%
$285.1
$452.5
1,490,800
$304
Percent Inflow:
F - 11
APPENDIX F
Table F.12
Node:
Store:
Node 1:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Pond Mills
50,000
Other DSTM
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Node 6:
Node 7:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
South East
London
97,000 sq.ft.
40,000 sq.ft.
Other DSTM
Other DSTM
% Distribution
$ Distribution
5.6%
$7.0
10.3%
$12.8
14.7%
$18.3
9.5%
$11.8
11.1%
$13.8
6.0%
$7.5
2.5%
$3.1
7.3%
$9.1
67.0%
$83.3
33.0%
$41.0
100.0%
$124.3
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.9%
$7.5
3.0%
$11.8
4.1%
$16.1
4.3%
$16.9
4.7%
$18.5
2.5%
$9.8
1.5%
$5.9
1.8%
$7.1
23.8%
$93.7
76.2%
$300.0
100.0%
$393.7
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.5%
$0.2
5.1%
$1.7
6.7%
$2.2
6.5%
$2.1
15.0%
$4.9
6.0%
$2.0
1.0%
$0.3
4.0%
$1.3
44.8%
$14.7
55.2%
$18.1
100.0%
$32.8
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$14.6
4.8%
$26.3
6.6%
$36.6
5.6%
$30.9
6.8%
$37.2
5.4%
$19.3
2.6%
$9.3
3.2%
$17.5
34.8%
$191.7
65.2%
$359.1
100.0%
$550.8
25.2%
$4.9
$19.5
62,100
$315
-58.3%
60.0%
$39.4
$65.7
274,200
$240
-8.7%
70.0%
$85.4
$122.1
419,700
$291
-8.2%
65.0%
$57.3
$88.2
372,000
$237
-7.2%
65.4%
$70.4
$107.6
230,800
$466
-6.8%
35.0%
$10.4
$29.6
97,000
$306
35.0%
$5.0
$14.4
40,000
$359
33.3%
$8.7
$26.2
182,000
$144
-6.5%
59.5%
$281.7
$473.4
1,677,800
$282
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F - 12
APPENDIX F
Table F.13
Node:
Store:
Node 1:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Pond Mills
50,000
Other DSTM
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Node 6:
Node 7:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
97,000 sq.ft.
40,000 sq.ft.
Other DSTM
Other DSTM
South East
London
% Distribution
$ Distribution
5.6%
$7.4
10.3%
$13.5
14.7%
$19.3
9.5%
$12.5
11.1%
$14.6
6.0%
$7.9
2.5%
$3.3
7.3%
$9.6
67.0%
$88.0
33.0%
$43.4
100.0%
$131.4
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.9%
$7.7
3.0%
$12.2
4.1%
$16.7
4.3%
$17.5
4.7%
$19.1
2.5%
$10.2
1.5%
$6.1
1.8%
$7.3
23.8%
$96.7
76.2%
$309.7
100.0%
$406.5
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.5%
$0.2
5.1%
$1.8
6.7%
$2.3
6.5%
$2.2
15.0%
$5.2
6.0%
$2.1
1.0%
$0.3
4.0%
$1.4
44.8%
$15.4
55.2%
$19.0
100.0%
$34.4
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$15.3
4.8%
$27.5
6.7%
$38.3
5.6%
$32.2
6.8%
$38.9
5.4%
$20.1
2.6%
$9.7
3.2%
$18.3
35.0%
$200.2
65.0%
$372.1
100.0%
$572.3
25.2%
$5.1
$20.4
62,100
$329
-56.5%
60.0%
$41.2
$68.7
274,200
$251
-4.5%
70.0%
$89.3
$127.6
419,700
$304
-4.0%
65.0%
$59.8
$92.0
372,000
$247
-3.2%
65.4%
$73.5
$112.3
230,800
$487
-2.7%
35.0%
$10.8
$30.9
97,000
$319
35.0%
$5.2
$15.0
40,000
$374
33.3%
$9.1
$27.4
182,000
$151
-2.2%
59.5%
$294.2
$494.4
1,677,800
$295
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F - 13
APPENDIX F
Table F.14
Node:
Store:
Node 1:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Pond Mills
50,000
Other DSTM
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Node 6:
Node 7:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
97,000 sq.ft.
40,000 sq.ft.
Other DSTM
Other DSTM
South East
London
% Distribution
$ Distribution
5.6%
$7.8
10.3%
$14.3
14.7%
$20.4
9.5%
$13.2
11.1%
$15.4
6.0%
$8.3
2.5%
$3.5
7.3%
$10.1
67.0%
$93.0
33.0%
$45.8
100.0%
$138.9
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.9%
$8.0
3.0%
$12.6
4.1%
$17.2
4.3%
$18.1
4.7%
$19.7
2.5%
$10.5
1.5%
$6.3
1.8%
$7.6
23.8%
$100.0
76.2%
$320.2
100.0%
$420.2
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.5%
$0.2
5.1%
$1.8
6.7%
$2.4
6.5%
$2.3
15.0%
$5.4
6.0%
$2.2
1.0%
$0.4
4.0%
$1.4
44.8%
$16.2
55.2%
$19.9
100.0%
$36.1
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$15.9
4.8%
$28.8
6.7%
$40.1
5.6%
$33.6
6.8%
$40.6
3.5%
$21.0
1.7%
$10.1
3.2%
$19.1
35.2%
$209.2
64.8%
$385.9
100.0%
$595.1
25.2%
$5.4
$21.3
62,100
$343
-54.5%
60.0%
$43.1
$71.9
274,200
$262
-0.1%
70.0%
$93.5
$133.5
419,700
$318
0.5%
65.0%
$62.4
$96.0
372,000
$258
1.1%
65.4%
$76.7
$117.3
230,800
$508
1.6%
35.0%
$11.3
$32.3
97,000
$333
35.0%
$5.5
$15.6
40,000
$390
33.3%
$9.6
$28.7
182,000
$158
2.4%
59.5%
$307.5
$516.7
1,677,800
$308
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F - 14
APPENDIX F
Table F.15
Node:
Store:
Node 1:
Pond Mills
Square and
Vicinity
Pond Mills
50,000
Other DSTM
Node 2:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Wellington Rd
White Oaks
Mall
Exeter Rd and
Wellington Rd
South of
Highway 401
Node 6:
Node 7:
Zone 1:
Other
Total
Other South
East London
Emerging Commercial
South East
London
97,000 sq.ft.
40,000 sq.ft.
Other DSTM
Other DSTM
% Distribution
$ Distribution
5.6%
$8.2
10.3%
$15.1
14.7%
$21.6
9.5%
$13.9
11.1%
$16.3
6.0%
$8.8
2.5%
$3.7
7.3%
$10.7
67.0%
$98.4
33.0%
$48.5
100.0%
$146.8
% Distribution
$ Distribution
1.9%
$8.3
3.0%
$13.0
4.1%
$17.8
4.3%
$18.7
4.7%
$20.4
2.5%
$10.9
1.5%
$6.5
1.8%
$7.8
23.8%
$103.4
76.2%
$331.0
100.0%
$434.3
% Distribution
$ Distribution
0.5%
$0.2
5.1%
$1.9
6.7%
$2.5
6.5%
$2.5
15.0%
$5.7
6.0%
$2.3
1.0%
$0.4
4.0%
$1.5
44.8%
$17.0
55.2%
$20.9
100.0%
$37.9
Total Study Area
% Distribution
$ Distribution
2.7%
$16.7
4.9%
$30.1
6.8%
$41.9
5.7%
$35.1
6.8%
$42.4
3.5%
$21.9
1.7%
$10.6
3.2%
$20.1
35.3%
$218.7
64.7%
$400.3
100.0%
$619.0
25.2%
$5.6
$22.3
62,100
$359
-52.5%
60.0%
$45.1
$75.2
274,200
$274
4.5%
70.0%
$97.8
$139.8
419,700
$333
5.2%
65.0%
$65.2
$100.2
372,000
$269
5.5%
65.4%
$80.2
$122.6
230,800
$531
6.2%
35.0%
$11.8
$33.8
97,000
$348
35.0%
$5.7
$16.3
40,000
$406
33.3%
$10.0
$30.1
182,000
$165
7.2%
59.5%
$321.4
$540.1
1,677,800
$322
Percent Inflow:
% Change from 2007:
F - 15

1655 Cover.cdr - City of London

Transcription

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