QBEX – Quantifying benefits and impacts of fishing exclusion zones
Transcription
QBEX – Quantifying benefits and impacts of fishing exclusion zones
QBEX – Quantifying benefits and impacts of fishing exclusion zones around Marine Renewable Energy Installations Research Team Prof. David Sims (P.I.), Dr Stephen Cotterell, Marine Biological Association Laboratory, Plymouth Prof. Brendan Godley, Dr Matt Witt, University of Exeter Dr Julian Metcalfe, CEFAS Laboratory, Lowestoft Dr Dan Conley, University of Plymouth Dr Mike Bell, Prof. Jonathan Side, Heriot-Watt University ICIT Dr Mel Austen, Plymouth Marine Laboratory http://www.mba.ac.uk/simslab/QBEX Focus of the research is to: • Use novel tracking technologies to determine the spatial movements of fish across a wide-range of spatio-temporal scales (spanning metres to 100s of km, and minutes to years). • Relate space and habitat use to the changing physical and biological environment around MREIs. • Couple field monitoring-derived estimates of abundance of fish and macro-invertebrates comprising the community assemblage found within and adjacent to MREI sites. • Assess social and economic costs of MREIs on fisheries, together with combination of tracking technologies and environmental sampling, for examining importance of potential spillover to regions adjacent to MREIs. Where? Study locations: (1) A small-spatial scale, wave energy test site (the Wave Hub, off Hayle, Cornwall). (2) Round 1 (R1) offshore wind farms (North Hoyle, Rhyl Flats; North Wales) and the area north of this towards the R2 Gwynt-yMor wind farm currently under construction. How will this be achieved? Programme of research (3 years; 1st Jan 2012 – 31st Dec 2014) Module 1. Animal movements (Partners participating: MBA, Cefas, Exeter) Module 2. Animal distribution and abundance (Exeter, MBA, Cefas) Module 3. Integration of animal movements with physical characterisation (MBA, Exeter, Cefas, Plymouth, ICIT) Module 4. Estimating ‘spillover’ from spatial dynamics and abundance and its effects on fisheries (MBA, Exeter, Cefas, ICIT) Module 5. Determining the social and economic costs and benefits of ‘spillover’ from MREIs to inform marine spatial planning decisions (PML) Module 1: Animal movements Deliverables D1.1 Data collection from arrays and retrieved tags (6 to 30 months) D1.2 Track reconstructions and spatial analysis (6 to 33 months) • 240 data/acoustic tags deployed at Wave Hub and Irish Sea • Engagement with commercial and rec. fishers and organisations, 31 DSTs (+1 acoustic) recovered to date (both sites). Module 1: Animal movements WaveHub – acoustic tagging Six VR3 equipped landers deployed (July 2012) at WaveHub 40 fish and rays tagged with acoustic pingers • Awaiting uploading of data from array Module 1: Animal movements Deliverables D1.1 Data collection from arrays and retrieved tags (6 to 30 months) D1.2 Track reconstructions and spatial analysis (6 to 33 months) • 240 data/acoustic tags deployed at Wave Hub and Irish Sea • Engagement with commercial and rec. fishers and organisations, 31 DSTs (+1 acoustic) recovered to date (both sites). Key advance: development and testing of more advanced tidal geolocation method for track reconstructions Module 1: Animal movements Tidal geolocation – Irish Sea 2-state hidden Markov model (HMM), (Pedersen, 2008) M2 amplitude (m) 3.480 Model matches tidal pattern in tag depth data with geographical domain of known tidal composition • 0.115 • • • Coverage based on ICES area VIIa (Irish Sea) 1 km grid in UTM30N (cm -5.75°) 351 rows x 331 columns (116,181 points) Amplitude and phase values for 11 tidal harmonic constituents for grid from OSU TMD (e.g. Egbert, et al., 2010). Egbert, et al., (2010). Cont. Shelf Res. 30: 668-679 Pedersen, (2008). Can J. Fish Aqu Sci. 65: 2367-2377 Module 1: Animal movements Data storage tag deployed on sinker of Liverpool Bay Smart Buoy (with co-operation of Cefas and AFBI) 1:3,000,000 km 0 7°0'W 6°0'W 5°0'W 20 40 60 80 100 4°0'W 3°0'W 52°0'N 53°0'N 54°0'N 55°0'N Static tag sensitivity analysis - method Analysed using same model conditions as for animal attached tags Data gathering is ongoing Module 1: Animal movements Static tag sensitivity analysis - results Module 1: Animal movements Example of westward movement Module 1: Animal movements 53°0'N 9 females moved to the west 1:1,500,000 km 0 5°0'W 10 20 30 40 50 4°0'W Result of tidal classification 0 Depth, m -20 -40 -60 -80 300 350 400 Julian day 450 500 1. Released in Oct 2012 2. Moved west Nov/Dec 2012 3. Then resident in deep water or near Holyhead 4. Returned to the east Apr/May 2013 5. Then resident on shelf close to release area • Often large vertical movements when in west • It seems that later west movers may not have travelled so far • 1 ray did not return to the east • 2,489 active days, average = 277 d Module 1: Animal movements 54°0'N 5 females moved to the north • Data runs possibly too short to provide evidence of return 1:1,500,000 km 0 • Less evidence of apparent large vertical movements 10 20 30 40 50 4°0'W 1. Released in Oct 2012 2. Moved north Nov/Dec 2012 3. Evidence of residency in deeper water off Fleetwood in early 2013 3°0'W Result of tidal classification 0 Depth, m -10 • 731 active days, average = 146 d -20 -30 -40 -50 300 320 340 360 380 Julian day 400 420 440 460 480 Module 1: Animal movements 54°0'N 6 females and 2 males moved a small distance from release • Some rays moved about the shelf area • Depth range from 20 to 60m in DSTs • Fewer larger daily step lengths (10s of km) • Some runs are short (3 < 60 days) 1:1,500,000 km 0 4°0'W 10 20 30 40 50 3°0'W Result of tidal classification 0 Depth, m 1. Released in Oct 2012 (1 male in July 2012) 2. Sometimes displacement from release position then more static -20 -40 -60 300 320 340 360 380 Julian day 400 420 440 460 • 772 active days, average = 97 d Module 1: Animal movements 54°0'N 100 data storage tags deployed, during July 2012 and Oct 2012. (10 males, 90 females overall) 22 tags returned to date • 15 washed ashore • 6 via commercial fishery • 1 via recreational fishery 53°0'N 2 males 20 females 1:1,500,000 km 0 5°0'W 4°0'W 10 20 30 40 50 3°0'W 3,992 active days Min = 8 days Max = 361 days Average = 181 days 3 patterns of movement west, north, stay Module 3. Integration of animal movements with physical characterisation Deliverables D3.1 Testing and completion of custom-written software framework for statistical analysis (to 18 m) D3.2 Completion of analysis and random walk modelling (6 to 33 m) D3.3 Spatial overlap estimates of fish movements and fishing vessels (24 to 33 m) Acoustic tag data: Novel statistical methods employing network theory to test for spatial changes and habitat/environment associations. Paper published: Jacoby et al., (2012). Methods Ecol. Evol. 3, 574-583. Archival tag data: Tidal geolocations with random walk modelling to understand space use in relation to environmental fields Example fields: (1) EUNIS predicted habitat map (2) Slope and depth (3) SST, modelled seabed temperature (4) Chl ‘a’ (5) Surface currents (direction, strength) Module 3: Integration 53°0'N 54°0'N Sediments – all 3,992 active days 1:1,500,000 km 0 5°0'W 4°0'W 10 20 30 40 50 3°0'W % Day <1 <1 <1 EUNIS name Code High energy R 3.1 Mod energy R 3.2 Low energy 3.3 shallow R High energy 4.1 3 deeper R Mod energy 4.2/ 27 2 deeper R Low energy 4.3 <1 deeper R Coarse 5.12 / 3 / 4 35 sediments S or mS 5.23 / 5 / 7 51 sM or fS 5.33 / 5 2 Mixed 5.43 / 4 / 5 3 sediments None 0 2 Total 100 Module 3: Integration Sediments – all 3,992 active days north west 07/12 9 8 8 Xympt_THR_02_A08_349_1_10_244_d_d_H_W 9 12 12 9 Xympt_THR_03_A08_353_1_10_246_d_d_H_W 9 12 12 12 9 9 12 12 12 12 9 8 9 8 9 9 females Xympt_THR_07_A08_373_1_10_254_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_09_A08_376_1_10_258_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_10_A08_377_1_10_260_d_d_H_W 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 10 10 10 18 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 18 4 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 18 18 18 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 18 10 10 10 18 9 10 18 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 18 18 18 18 18 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 18 18 18 10 10 10 17 17 10 10 18 18 6 10 17 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 4 10 18 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 10 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 0 10 10 10 10 10 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 10 10 10 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 6 10 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 6 4 4 1 9 1 4 4 4 4 9 9 9 2 1 2 0 1 1 1 9 4 4 1 4 8 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 9 9 9 0 0 1 4 4 4 4 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 1 0 1 9 10 10 10 10 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11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 13 0 16 12 12 12 13 11 12 11 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Xympt_THR_06_A08_363_1_10_252_d_d_H_W 9 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 17 17 17 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 8 8 8 11 11 8 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 14 15 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 11 11 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 0 0 8 8 8 8 0 8 8 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 13 13 12 11 13 13 12 11 13 11 13 13 11 11 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 16 16 11 0 0 0 0 16 8 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 8 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 12 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 17 12 12 11 11 11 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 17 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 12 9 10 18 10 9 9 9 9 9 11 9 9 9 18 10 9 12 12 15 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 17 17 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Xympt_THR_11_A08_380_1_10_262_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_12_A08_385_1_10_240_d_d_H_W 8 males 12 9 9 17 17 17 18 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 17 18 17 17 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 17 17 9 9 17 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Xympt_THR_16_A08_417_1_10_274_d_d_H_W 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 12 12 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 9 8 Xympt_THR_17_A08_422_1_10_277_d_d_H_W 9 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 12 12 12 Xympt_THR_18_A08_425_1_10_280_d_d_H_W 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 Xympt_THR_20_A08_447_1_10_286_d_d_H_W 12 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 Xympt_THR_14_A08_404_1_10_268_d_d_H_W 9 Xympt_THR_21_A08_450_1_10_289_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_22_A08_352_1_10_293_d_d_H_W 12 • • • • 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 12 12 9 12 12 6 3 8 Xympt_THR_05_A08_358_1_10_250_d_d_H_W 6 3 12 Xympt_THR_04_A08_357_1_10_248_d_d_H_W 6 10/13 3 Xympt_THR_15_A08_409_1_10_271_d_d_H_W 9 6 07/13 10 Xympt_THR_13_A08_402_1_10_265_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_08_A08_375_1_10_256_d_d_H_W stay 01/13 Xympt_THR_01_A08_345_1_10_242_d_d_H_W EUNIS substrate type 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 17 17 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 9 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 8 8 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 3 0 11 11 colour days High energy infralittoral R 88 Moderate energy infralittoral R 32 Low energy infralittoral R 16 High energy circalittoral R 12 1 0 26 11 Initial movements were over coarse, or fS/mS sediments Higher energy sites were visited by rays that moved to the west in the winter These rays were also visited fS and mS sites in the summer of 2013 sM sediments were encountered by some rays that moved to the north Moderate energy circalittoral R Faunal com on deep moderate energy circalittoral R 181 Low energy circalittoral R 137 25 Infralittoral coarse sediment 3 Circalittoral coarse sediment 136 Deep circalittoral coarse sediment 910 Infralittoral fS or infralittoral mS 460 Circalittoral fS or circalittoral mS 663 Deep circalittoral S Infralittoral sM or infralittoral fS Circalittoral sM or circalittoral fM Infralittoral mixed sediments Circalittoral mixed sediments Deep circalittoral mixed sediments outside Total 1016 37 4 104 7 62 85 3992 11 Module 2: Animal distribution and abundance Deliverables D2.1 Spatio-temporal abundance estimates of benthic invertebrates, fish, seabirds and marine mammals (0 to 30 m) D2.2 Estimates of fisheries overlap with MREI adjacent areas (24 to 30 m) Balanced experimental design of deployments of sampling equipment (baited traps; towed and drop-down video cameras; C-PODS; visual survey). Communities of mobile macrobenthic invertebrates (e.g. prey of fish), fish, and fish predators (seabirds and marine mammals) monitored at test and control sites. These programmes running since 2008. 2014: Acoustic surveys for pelagic fish Module 4. Estimating ‘spillover’ from spatial dynamics and abundance and its effects on fisheries • Estimate proportions of time that individual animals spend in test and control areas, rates of movement between those areas, and potential drivers. Module 2 Deliverables D4.1 Empirical estimates changes in space use and spillover (24 to 33 m) D4.2 Output of spatial fishery model (24 to 33 m) • Estimate spillover empirically using movement and abundance data • Develop and test individual-based spatial models of potential spillover effects on fisheries • Explore implications for sustainable exploitation Module 4 Module 4: Estimating spillover MREI sites – all 3,992 active days 54°0'N 8 consented MREI sites visited by rays at some time. 371 out of 3,992 days = 9.2% but high variability. Most were at Gwynt-Y-Mor (218 days or 59%) 53°0'N Burbo Bank Extension (55 days or 15%) 1:1,500,000 km 0 5°0'W 4°0'W 10 20 30 40 50 3°0'W Irish Sea, consented area only (87 days or 23%). north west 10 10 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 10 10 10 3 10 10 3 3 3 10 10 10 3 10 3 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_02_A08_349_1_10_244_d_d_H_W 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_03_A08_353_1_10_246_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_07_A08_373_1_10_254_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_09_A08_376_1_10_258_d_d_H_W 10 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 females Xympt_THR_10_A08_377_1_10_260_d_d_H_W 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 10 10 5 5 10 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_13_A08_402_1_10_265_d_d_H_W 10 10 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 10 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_15_A08_409_1_10_271_d_d_H_W 10 10 10 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 10 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 10 3 10 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 10 10 10 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 10 10 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_19_A08_437_1_10_283_d_d_H_W 10 10 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_04_A08_357_1_10_248_d_d_H_W 10 10 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_05_A08_358_1_10_250_d_d_H_W 10 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 10 2 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_06_A08_363_1_10_252_d_d_H_W 10 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_11_A08_380_1_10_262_d_d_H_W 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_12_A08_385_1_10_240_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_14_A08_404_1_10_268_d_d_H_W 10/13 07/13 Xympt_THR_01_A08_345_1_10_242_d_d_H_W Xympt_THR_08_A08_375_1_10_256_d_d_H_W stay MREI sites – all 3,992 active days 01/13 07/12 Module 4: Estimating spillover 10 10 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 2 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 males 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_16_A08_417_1_10_274_d_d_H_W 10 10 10 3 3 10 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 10 10 2 2 2 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_17_A08_422_1_10_277_d_d_H_W 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_18_A08_425_1_10_280_d_d_H_W 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 10 10 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_20_A08_447_1_10_286_d_d_H_W 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_21_A08_450_1_10_289_d_d_H_W 10 10 10 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 2 2 10 2 2 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2 10 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Xympt_THR_22_A08_352_1_10_293_d_d_H_W 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MREI area name Burbo Bank Burbo Bank Extension Gwynt Y Mor Irish Sea North Hoyle Rhyl Flats Walney 1 West of Duddon Sands outside Total colour days visited 1 55 218 87 4 3 2 1 3621 3992 • • • After release 16 (of 22) rays visited the GwyntY-Mor site. Some of those that went west transited through Irish Sea area on way out or back. Those that returned to the shelf area visited the MREI sites there as did those that did not move north or west. Module 4: Estimating spillover -5.6 -5.45 -5.3 -5.15 -5 -4.85 -4.7 -4.55 -4.4 -4.25 -4.1 -3.95 -3.8 -3.65 -3.5 -3.35 -3.2 Modelling mobile fish distributions and effects of fishing and area closures - Progressing well -3.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 15 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 31 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 3 125 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 13 10 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 0 23 54.4 54.3 54.2 54.1 54 53.9 53.8 -5.6 53.7 -5.45 -5.3 12288 10538 11045 -5.15 -5 11730 11976 -4.85 -4.7 10831 -4.55 -4.4 12135 13040 14099 -4.25 -4.1 13432 13665 -3.95 -3.8 -3.65 -3.5 -3.35 -3.2 -3.05 54.4 0 0 0 0 0 8 57 86 21 10 5 34 23 21 62 32 18 0 0 0 0 7 67 11 3 10 11 17 32 96 95 366 272 7 53.6 11301 11653 12102 11027 11693 12010 11460 13299 12940 13351 13587 10414 11596 11741 10238 11395 12239 12206 12865 13795 13874 13501 14052 14739 15779 11038 11714 12108 11182 11626 12155 12392 12745 14855 14188 14813 14668 17830 17081 12596 11330 11466 11408 11520 12695 13538 13409 15099 16511 16805 17102 18813 19061 21156 20494 21417 22515 13337 12416 12506 12691 13115 12645 13188 15322 15195 16380 18146 18520 20620 21496 23749 22466 20755 19021 14533 13328 12416 12909 12619 14356 15023 15431 16268 16473 19653 20214 21543 25189 25445 23766 20684 21452 13858 12438 12200 12118 12833 14985 16095 16076 16944 17825 20860 20874 23192 25461 26407 26665 13554 12170 12181 12169 13531 14543 15706 16550 17669 19098 21575 22809 24657 27943 29300 27963 30135 13345 12179 13024 13020 14022 14816 14365 16083 16712 20134 21976 24363 27747 29027 30464 31103 31842 13479 12796 12627 13358 13889 13100 12734 14982 17613 20074 21558 24115 27926 28236 28640 28800 27262 54.3 53.5 54.2 0 0 0 1 99 17 13 6 10 38 30 55 137 273 260 244 40 53.4 18216 54.1 0 0 0 46 29 134 51 3 0 6 46 26 24 13 12 53.3 54 0 0 0 33 0 135 213 4 53.2 53.9 0 3 0 13 0 29 45 30 1 53.8 53.1 9 1 0 0 0 6 75 53.7 53 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 53.6 52.9 52.8 52.7 53.5 53.4 13797 Thornback Ray: Distribution of DST geolocations by 10km square 12490 11465 12233 13177 13051 12898 15602 16668 17872 21037 25170 30211 31020 11783 11859 12141 12906 13152 14423 11726 11463 12139 11875 12333 12960 13378 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.21 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.21 0.24 13133 53.1 12306 11403 11749 11904 11686 11261 12018 12312 11130 11616 11957 11095 11543 11817 10991 9895 10264 11099 10748 11569 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.15 0.20 0.29 0.44 0.48 0.40 11228 12028 11522 11144 11093 10624 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.15 0.20 0.29 0.47 0.77 0.90 0.59 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.17 0.24 0.36 0.58 -190.91 0.89 0.66 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.18 0.24 0.33 0.44 0.52 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.13 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 53 52.9 Next steps… • Use shapefile data for habitats, MREI areas and coastlines • Increase spatial resolution of grid • Stratify sampling by seasons and habitats rather than individuals • Incorporate scenarios for direction of fishing effort (VMS) 0.00 0.00 15224 53.2 12150 0.00 0.00 31532 53.3 13283 0.00 52.8 52.7 Distribution of fish-days (10,000 fish over 1 year after 10y burn-in) 0.11 Change in catch compared to no closure Module 5. Determining the social and economic costs and benefits of ‘spillover’ from MREIs to inform marine spatial planning decisions • Fishing Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data and associated catch data over period 6-year period (2007 to 2012) • This period spans: WaveHub – deployment of special marks defining working area S Irish Sea – development of Gwynt-Y-Mor windfarm • Agreement with MMO over VMS data Pathways to impact • QBEX engagement: UK and French fishers (commercial and recreational), regional fish producers organisations, Natural Resources Wales, Marine Management Organisation (MMO), APECS (French Elasmobranch Association), RWE Npower, members of the public • MBA submission to Jun 2012 NERC Knowledge Exchange call. Placed 11th, nine funded. • Exeter U NERC KE impact accelerator grant: Marine WebGIS data browser with information from QBEX/PRIMaRE/SOWFIA. Movie/Animation “Effects of marine renewable energy at sea”. Jan 2014 storyboards being finalised. Future plans Cod locations (black dots) Impacts of offshore wind farm sites on fish migratory routes, site fidelity and behaviour ‘Before-and-after’ experiments North Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel Use improved tidal geolocation model (1km): (1) Before MREI: Re-analyse Cefas electronic tag data for cod, plaice and rays during late 1990s and late 2000s (2) After MREI: Re-deploy tags and reconstruct present movement patterns Determine differences in: non-migratory space use including site fidelity during feeding and spawning phases the timing, speed and specific routes of migration Thornback ray (blue, movement; red, recaptures) http://www.mba.ac.uk/simslab/QBEX