CENRAP Modeling Update

CENRAP Modeling Update
Calvin Ku
Missouri DNR
November 4, 2003
CENRAP
AP/ESPN Top25 Polls
#21
#10
#17
#24
#1
#11
#4
CENRAP Emissions/Modeling Timeline
Emissions
Modeling
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Model Selection
Perf Evaluation
Basecase
Control Strategy
Jul-Dec 03
Jan & Jul
2002 (1999)
Mar-Jul 04
2002 NEI
version1 &
Update
Oct-Dec 04
2002 NEI
version 2
state data
Jun-Aug 05
2018 Proj.
Base &
Control S.
Nov-Apr 04
Model
Evaluation
3 AQ models
Apr-Sep 04
Performance
Evaluation
1 AQ model
Jan-Sep 05
Basecase
Performance
Evaluation
Jul-Sep 05
2018 Base
& Sensitivity for
Control S.
Jan-Apr 04
Sensitivity
Chem Mech.
Vert layers
Apr-Sep 04
Sensitivity
EI Improve
12km, IC/BC
Apr 04
Selected AQ
Model & Dev.
Protocol
Oct-Dec 05
Control
Strategy
Runs
Jan-Jun 06
Final Strategy
Conclusions &
Recommendations
A MPE Database and Software
Designed for Community Use
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Comprehensive Processor
– data base; binary to NetCDF converter; software
– output compatible with common graphics software
Versatility
– PM, PM components, gases, deposition fluxes
User-friendly Design
– CENRAP review and community input for software features
– Software engineering standard
– Based on Fortran 90 and MySQL (free!)
Documentation
Phase 1
Model Evaluation/Selection
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July 1, 2003 - March 30, 2004
CENRAP Domain
January and July 2002 Episodes
CMAQ, CAMx4.0, and PM-CAMx
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A Systematic Approach to Identify Areas of Deficiencies
Uncertainty Assessments to Improve Model Performance
Sensitivity Analyses to assist in Model Selection
Establish Modeling Infrastructure
Develop Modeling Expertise
Phase 2&3
2002 Basecase Development
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April 1, 2004 - September 30, 2005
CENRAP Domain
2002 NEI versions 1 & 2
Modeling System Selected for PM/Haze
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Start with 2002 NEI version 1
Incorporate Emission Inventory Improvements
Incorporate Uncertainty Analyses Recommendations
Sensitivity Analyses to Improve Model Performance
Incorporate State-specific Data (version 2)
Conduct 2002 Base Case Modeling
Conduct Performance Evaluation
Phase 4
Control Strategy Evaluation
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July 1, 2005 - June 30, 2006
2018 Projection and Control Strategy (NEI version 2)
Modeling System Selected for PM/Haze
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Conduct 2018 Basecase after Perf. Evaluation Met
Conduct Sensitivity Analyses for Emissions Controls
Develop Control strategy Metrix
Conduct Control Strategy Modeling
Develop Regional Strategies Recommendations