Wind Energy in Central America Potentials and Project

Wind Energy in Central America Potentials and Project

“Wind Energy in Central America:
Potentials and Project Implementation” ”
Rodrigo Mata, C.E. & M.B.A.
11/20/2012
Content overview
I. Economical context in Central America
II. Regional electricity market overview
III. Wind energy market in Central America
IV. Wind project implementation
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I. Economical context in Central America
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1.1
Geographical location & economy overview
Honduras
Guatemala
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Panamáa
Costa Rica
Economical Indexes
Country Area (km2)
Population (thousand of people) 2011
GDP*1 (millions of US$ 2011)
GDP % increase
GDP per capita
11/20/2012
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua
51.100
21.040
108.890
112.492
130.700
4.703
6.262
14.729
7.773
5.896
40.870
4,2
8.690
23.054
1,4
3.682
46.898
2,8
3.184
Source:
Country area: Proyecto ARECA, BCIE 2009
Population, GDP, GDP increase (%) and GDP per capita is based on Statistical Yearbook, CEPAL 2011
*1 GDP: Gross Domestic Product
17.446
2,8
2.244
9.317
4,5
1.580
Panamá
78.200
3.562
31.075
7,6
8.724
4
1.2
Economical indexes for Central America
Indexes
Country Risk (Moody´s Investor)
Perspective
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras
Nicaragua
Panamá
Baa3
Stable
Ba2
Stable
Ba1
Stable
B2
Stable
B3
Stable
Baa2
Positive
0,744
High
0,674
Medium
0,574
Medium
0,625
Medium
0,589
Medium
0,768
High
4,34
57
3,80
101
4,01
83
3,88
90
3,73
108
4,49
40
1
1
2
3
3
4
4
4
5
4
1
2
Free
Free
Partialy Free
Partialy Free
Partialy Free
Free
Source: Moody´s Investor Services, 2012
Human Development Index 2011
Source: Human Development Index: HDI, PNUD 2011
Global Competitiveness Index, 2012-2013
Source: Global Competitiveness Index: World Economic Forum 2012-2013
Political Rights Index
Civil Liberty Index
Freedom Status
Source: Political Rights & Civil Liberty: Freedom House Organization, 2012
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II. Regional electricity market overview
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2.1
Energy demand in Central America
Source: Consejo de Electrificación América Central, CEAC 2010
Energy demand 2012 (GWh)
Guatemala
8.623
El Salvador
6.216
Honduras
7.880
Nicaragua
3.577
Costa Rica
10.156
Panama
7.932
TOTAL
44.384
Energy demand by source, 2011
5%
Fossil source
39%
43%
47%
43%
RE source
54%
70%
95%
61%
57%
53%
57%
46%
30%
Centroamérica
11/20/2012
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panamá
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2.2
Total power installed in Central America
Country
Total power installed, 2012
Power (MW)
C.F. (%)
Guatemala
2.455
40,10%
El Salvador
1.480
47,95%
Honduras
1.636
54,98%
Nicaragua
1.073
38,06%
Costa Rica
2.606
44,49%
Panama
2.049
44,19%
TOTAL
11.299
44,84%
Source: the author.
Power capacity by source, 2012
27%
Fossil source
46%
47%
49%
50%
62%
RE source
68%
73%
54%
53%
51%
50%
38%
Centroamérica
11/20/2012
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
32%
Nicaragua
Panamá
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2.2
Electricity market growth expectations
Average growth rate expectations for Central
America energy market, 2012-2025
Source: Consejo de Electrificación América Central, CEAC 2010
11/20/2012
Energy demand projection for Central America, 2012-2025
Source: Consejo de Electrificación América Central, CEAC 2010
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2.4
Penetration of Renewable Energy in Central America
Source: Climascopio. BID & Bloomberg, 2012
*1 Not include PE Cerro Hula (102 Mw)
*2 Not include PE Blue Power (40 Mw)
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2.5
Average retail price of electricity in Central America
Wind energy tariff in Central America
Source: Climascopio. BID & Bloomberg, 2012
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2.6
Renewable energy potential in Central America
Renewable energy power identified in Central America by source (MW)
RE Source
Hydro
Geothermal
Wind
TOTAL
Costa Rica
6.474
865
600
7.939
El Salvador
2.165
333
Under research
2.498
Guatemala
5.000
1.000
400
6.400
Honduras
5.000
120
200
5.320
Nicaragua
1.760
1.200
600
3.560
Panamá
2.341
40
400
2.781
Total
22.740
3.558
2.200
28.498
Source: BCIE Proyecto ARECA, 2009
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2.7
Regional electricity Market (MER)
Source: Memoria Labores EOR 2008-2009
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2.7
Regional electricity Market (MER)
Source: Memoria Labores EOR 2008-2009
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III. Wind energy market in Central America
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3.1
Central America Wind Power Potential
Wind power potential in Central America (MW)
Overview
• Complex sites
• Wind speed is heterogeneous
in Central America.
• Not availability of good wind
databases.
Source: BCIE Proyecto ARECA, 2009
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3.2
Wind farms in Central America
Wind Farm
COUNTRY
Aeroenergía
Central Tilarán
Proyecto Eólico Guanacaste
Molinos Viento Arenal
Tejona
Valle Central
Los Santos
Cerro Hula
Amayo
La Fe - San Martin
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Honduras
Nicaragua
Nicaragua
•
11/20/2012
TOTAL
PUESTA EN
WEC
WEC MODEL Nº WECs POWER
SERVICIO Manufacturer
(MW)
1998
Neg Micon
NM48/750
9
6,75
1996
Kenetech
USW33
55
19,80
2009
ENERCON
E44/900
55
49,50
1999
Neg Micon
NM44/750
32
24,00
2002
Vestas
V45/660
30
19,80
2012
ENERCON
E44/900
17
15,30
2011
GAMESA
G52-850
15
12,75
2011
GAMESA
G87/2000
51
102,00
2010
Suzlon
S88/2100
30
63,00
2011
Vestas
V80/1800
22
39,60
DEVELOPER
OWNER
Desarrollos Eólicos S.A.
Proyectos Eólicos S.A.
juwi Energías Renovables
MOVASA
ICE
juwi Energías Renovables
Coopesantos
Globeleq Mesoamérica Energy
Energía Eólica de Nicaragua
Infima Renovable
NA
PESA
GDF Suez
ENEL Green Power
ICE
Eólico Valle Central S.A.
Coopesantos
Globeleq Mesoamérica Energy
Energía Eólica de Nicaragua
Grupo Terra
Capacity Factors between 32% up to 45%
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3.3
Guanacaste Wind Farm, Costa Rica
55 WEC ENERCON E44
Guayabo, Bagaces
Total power: 49,5 MW
Energy: 240 GWh per year
Owner: Suez Energy
Construction between 2007-2009
COD: December 2009.
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3.4 Amayo
Wind Farm, Nicaragua
30 WEC´s Suzlon S88
Rivas, Nicaragua
Two construction stages:
40 MW & 23M
Construction Cost: US$149M
Financed by BCIE
11/20/2012
Energy price estimated:
US$8,625 cents
COD: 2010 for the second stage.
First Wind Farm in Nicaragua
19
3.5
Cerro de Hula Wind Farm, Honduras
Largest Wind Farm in Central
America.
51 WEC´s Gamesa G87
Total power: 102 MW
11/20/2012
Located in Tegucigalpa, Honduras.
Construction cost: US$250M
financed by US Export-Import
Bank & BCIE
COD: December 2011.
20
3.6
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama
Total
11/20/2012
Wind power scenario for Central America
Total Power Wind Power Wind Power
Installed 2011 Penetration Penetration
(MW)
10%
20%
2.606
261
521
1.480
148
296
2.455
246
491
1.636
164
327
1.073
107
215
2.049
205
410
11.299
1.130
2.260
Total Wind
Power Installed
2011 (Mw)
148
0
0
102
103
0
Projects under
development
(Mw)
250
42
15
75
80
158
353
620
Potential Market Potential Market
(MW)
(MW)
10% Penetration 20% Penetration
-137
123
106
254
231
476
-13
150
-76
32
47
251
157
1.287
Other wind
initiatives
(Mw)
80
0
110
0
40
374
604
21
3.7
Wind projects in Central America
Wind Power under development in Central America, 2012
Country
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Panama
Panama
Panama
Panama
Honduras
Project
Capacity
(MW)
EPC - Developer
Los Leones
Orosí
Chiripa
7200 Law
Eolo
Alba Rivas
Metapán-Santa Ana
Marañon
Portobelo-Ballestillas
Rosa de los Vientos
Nuevo Chagres
Grupo Terra
50
50
50
100
40
40
42
18
31
50
59
75
juwi
Globeleq-Mesoamérica
Acciona
To be defined
Globeleq-Mesoamérica
ALBANISA
La CEL
Unión Eólica Panameña
Unión Eólica Panameña
Unión Eólica Panameña
Unión Eólica Panameña
Grupo Terra
TOTAL
605
Other wind projects initiatives in Central America
Country
Costa Rica
Panama
Panama
Panama
Panama
Guatemala
Guatemala
Guatemala
Nicaragua
TOTAL
11/20/2012
Project
Capacity
(MW)
EPC - Developer
7200 Law
Santa Cruz
Escudero
Viento Sur
Anton
Piedras Blancas
Buenos Aires
San Cristobal
Sierras de Managua
80
74
50
150
100
40
40
30
40
Varios
Innovent
Helium Energy Panama S.A.
Helium Energy Panama S.A.
FERSA
ND
ND
Mesoamérica
Mesoamérica
604
22
3.7
Incentives for wind project development
INCENTIVES
GUATEMALA
EL SALVADOR
HONDURAS
NICARAGUA
COSTA RICA
PANAMA
Import tax exception
IVA exception
IR exception
CER´s MDL tax exception
% RE awarded in biddings process
Transmission and Distribution Charges exception (10 MW)
RE higher price
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•
The incentives for new investment in Central America are heterogeneous.
•
Countries with weaker incentives depend on the government intervention for the
construction of new RE generation plants.
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IV. Wind project implementation
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4.1
Key factors for a wind project development
Project Charter
Pre-feasibility
Technical
Preliminary
Investment
Legal
Successful
Project
Feasibility
Environmental
Examination
Financial
Final Design
Licenses
Social &
Environmental
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Investment
Construction
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4.2
Wind project development issues
Issue 1
Issue 2
Issue 3
Issue 4
Issue 5
Costa Rica
Bureaucracy
Bureaucracy
Infrastructure
Financial
access
Corruption
Corruption
Fiscal norms
El Salvador
Security
Security
Financial
access
Corruption
Corruption
Bureaucracy
Bureaucracy
Political
Instability
Guatemala
Security
Security
Corruption
Corruption
Infrastructure
Bureaucracy
Bureaucracy
Labor
Capacity
Honduras
Security
Security
Corruption
Corruption
Bureaucracy
Bureaucracy
Financial
access
Taxes
Nicaragua
Bureaucracy
Bureaucracy
Infrastructure
Labor
Capacity
Political
Instability
Corruption
Corruption
Panamá
Corruption
Corruption
Bureaucracy
Bureaucracy
Labor
Capacity
Security
Security
Inflation
Source: Informe Competitividad Global, 2012-2013. Foro Económico Mundial
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4.3
Key challenges for wind project development
•
Financial resources access
•
Equity
•
Energy price (not differentiation by technology)
•
Insufficient transmission capacity & access to Transmission Lines
•
Lack of long-term contracts
•
Slowness in permits and licenses
•
Technical limits in the system
Source: Análisis y comparación de las normativas técnicas que aplican a los proyectos de generación de energía eléctrica por fuentes renovables de energía, BCIE 2010
11/20/2012
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4.4
Project investment indicators for Central America
Source: Proyecto ARECA, 2010
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Bibliography
•
“Climascopio”, 2012. FOMIN-BID & Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
•
“Análisis comparativo del desarrollo de energía renovables en América Central”, 2010. Proyecto
ARECA – BCIE.
•
“Análisis del mercado centroamericano de energía renovable”, 2009. Proyecto ARECA-BCIE.
•
“Información del sector energético en países de América del Sur, América Central y El Caribe”,
2009. CIER.
•
“Desarrollo y situación actual del sector eólico en américa Central”, 2012. Lic. Jorge Asturias O,
OLADE.
•
“Plan Indicativo Regional de Expansión de la Generación Periodo 2011-2025”, 2011. Consejo de
Electrificación de América Central, CEAR.
•
“Memoria EOR”, 2008-2009. Empresa Operadora de la Red.
•
“Informe Competitividad Global”, 2012-2013. Foro Económico Mundial
11/20/2012
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Thank you….
Rodrigo Mata, C.E. & M.B.A.
Costa Rica
[email protected]
(506) 8835-6172
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