2013 Market Report - Belcaro.xlsx

Real Estate Market Report
Belcaro Neighborhood
2013
Single-Family Home Data
Leigh Wilbanks
100 Fillmore Street, Suite 500
Denver, Colorado 80206
303.884.9166
[email protected]
RedDoorDenver.com
BELCARO NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS
Annual Data:
Year-over-Year Comparison of Home Sales
Table Definitions
Prior Year Data
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
115
104
68
77
61
$3,200,000
$5,250,000
$3,815,000
$5,700,000
$3,200,000
Median Net Price
$770,500
$660,250
$563,104
$588,000
$675,000
Low Net Price
$325,000
$325,000
$273,080
$282,500
$285,000
Sales
High Net Price
Avg Price per SF
$360
$317
$308
$319
$317
Avg Square Feet
2,495
2,552
2,550
2,469
2,493
Avg Lot Size (SF)
8,288
9,333
9,544
8,447
4,558
Avg Beds / Baths
3.8 / 3.4
3.8 / 3.6
3.8 / 3.6
3.6 / 3.4
3.9 / 3.5
Average Home Age
49 years
50 years
53 years
48 years
45 years
Days on Market
47
109
133
108
141
Avg Discount from List
5%
7%
10%
9%
14%
% Bank Owned
3%
1%
6%
5%
2%
Price Quartile Data:
Discount from List: The percent
decrease from a property's original list
price to its final net sales price.
Total 2013
Top
115
29
29
29
28
$3,200,000
$3,200,000
$1,020,000
$770,000
$570,000
Median Net Price
$770,500
$1,324,130
$855,000
$655,000
$520,185
Low Net Price
$325,000
$1,021,000
$770,500
$570,500
$325,000
Avg Price per SF
$360
$386
$325
$348
$383
Avg Square Feet
2,495
3,768
2,743
2,052
1,378
Avg Lot Size (SF)
8,288
10,126
8,382
8,164
6,403
Avg Beds / Baths
3.8 / 3.4
4.7 / 4.9
4.0 / 3.9
3.5 / 2.8
3.1 / 2.1
Average Home Age
49 years
25 years
44 years
63 years
64 years
Days on Market
47
61
56
39
31
Avg Discount from List
5%
5%
7%
5%
5%
% Bank Owned
3%
7%
3%
0%
0%
High Net Price
Price Quartile Data:
Bottom
Top
Upper Middle Lower Middle
Active Listings
19
7
12
0
0
Under Contract Listings
11
5
3
1
2
Absorption Rate
3.1
5.0
6.2
0.4
0.9
Price Quartile: Price quartiles are set so
that there are an equal number of sales
in each quartile based on net sales price.
# Active: The current number of homes
listed for sale in the MLS as of the report
run date.
Absorption Rate: The number of months
it will theoretically take to sell the
current inventory at the prior year's sale
pace. Note: Not all homes listed for sale
will actually sell, so this is a conservative
(high) rate.
2013 Price Quartile Breakout
Total
% Bank Owned: The percent of sold
homes that were Bank-Owned (does not
include Short Sales).
# Under Contract: The current number
of homes listed as under contract in the
MLS as of the report run date.
Current Active & Under Contract Listings
As of: 3/26/14
Beds and Baths: Beds may be
conforming or non-conforming and may
be above or below grade. Full, half and
three-quarter baths all count as one
bathroom.
Days on Market (DOM): The number of
days between the date a property was
listed and the date a property was
marked under contract in the MLS.
2013 Home Sales Broken into Price Quartiles
Upper Middle Lower Middle
Net Price: Final sales price less any seller
concessions.
Square Feet: Above grade square
footage not including any finished or
unfinished basement square footage.
2013 Price Quartile Breakout
Sales
Sales: The number of homes sold during
a given period. If a specific home is sold
twice during a period, it is counted as
two sales.
Single-Family Home: Any "noncondominium." Includes both attached
(duplex, townhome, etc) or detached
homes.
Bottom
Source: Metrolist, Inc.
MLS Data accuracy dependent upon broker entry accuracy
presented by: Leigh Wilbanks, Broker & Owner
[email protected] 303.884.9166 RedDoorDenver.com
BELCARO NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS
Annual Data:
Graphs of year-over-year home sale trends
Sales
140
115
120
104
78
$317
$319
2009
2010
$308
$317
$250
77
68
61
60
$350
$360
$341
$300
100
80
Price per Square Foot
$400
$200
$150
40
$100
20
-
$50
2008
2009
2010
2011
Year-over-Year increase:
2012
2013
$0
 11%
2008
2012
2013
 13%
Year-over-Year increase:
Average Days on Market
Average Discount from List
16%
2011
160
13.6%
14%
141
140
133
124
12%
120
10%
8%
100
8.7%
8.0%
7.4%
80
5.5%
6%
60
4%
40
2%
20
0%
2008
2009
2010
109
108
10.4%
2011
Year-over-Year decrease:
2012
2013
 26%
0
47
2008
2009
2010
Year-over-Year decrease:
2011
2012
2013
 57%
Source: Metrolist, Inc.
MLS Data accuracy dependent upon broker entry accuracy
presented by: Leigh Wilbanks, Broker & Owner
[email protected] 303.884.9166 RedDoorDenver.com
BELCARO NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS
Monthly Sales
Quarterly Price per Square Foot
20
$450
Monthly Data
18
Quarterly Data
18
Annual Average
16
13
$342
$340
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
$348
$300
12
$250
10
$251
9
$200
7
7
7
7
6
6
$150
4
4
$100
2
$50
0
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
The average number of sales per month in 2013 was 9.6 with peak sales
occurring in June (18 sales). Keep in mind, homes typically go under
contract 30 or more days prior to the close date.
Quarterly Discount from List
$0
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q2
2013
Annual Average
Q4
2013
Days on Market vs Sales Price
Individual Sales
Quarterly Data
12.0%
Q3
2013
Average price per square foot increased 13% over the course of 2013 with
an average price point of $360 for the year.
$3,500,000
14%
12%
$365
$313
13
12
12
$377
$341
$350
14
8
Annual Average
$400
Average DOM
$3,000,000
Median DOM
$2,500,000
10%
8.8%
8%
$2,000,000
7.1%
6.2%
6.2%
6%
5.0%
$1,500,000
4.9%
4.0%
4%
$1,000,000
$500,000
2%
$0
0%
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Average discount from list was at a low of 4% in Q3 of 2013 and averaged
5.5% for the year.
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Days on Market
Average days on market (DOM) ranged from a minimum of 0 days to a
maximum of 497 days and averaged 47 days in 2013. The median DOM
was 20 days in 2013 which is a better indicator of the actual pace of sales.
Source: Metrolist, Inc.
MLS Data accuracy dependent upon broker entry accuracy
presented by: Leigh Wilbanks, Broker & Owner
[email protected] 303.884.9166 RedDoorDenver.com
BELCARO NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS
Above Grade Square Footage vs Price
$3,500,000
y = 0.069x2 - 54.237x + 488789
R² = 0.7968
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
Net Price
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Above Grade Square Footage
5,000
6,000
7,000
Within a neighborhood, the largest driver of price is above grade square footage. The graph above shows the correlation between square
footage and price for the 2013 sales in the Belcaro neighborhood. The yellow line provides a prediction of price if square footage were the
only factor influencing price. The dispersion of the data points around the yellow line shows the amount of influence that other factors
(ie:location within the neighborhood, deferred maintenance, finish quality, beds and baths, etc.) have on price. More consistent
neighborhoods typically have less data dispersion than transitional neighborhoods.
Sales by Price Category
$0-$300K
Belcaro
2011
3%
$300K-$500K
$500K-$750K
32%
Belcaro
2012
28%
28%
Belcaro
2013
$750K-$1MM
13%
32%
11%
10%
20%
17%
26%
52%
0%
24%
23%
37%
Denver
2013
$1MM+
26%
31%
30%
40%
50%
60%
12%
70%
80%
90%
3% 2%
100%
Housing stock in the city of Denver was split almost 50/50 between homes priced below $300K and homes priced above $300K. Prices in the
Belcaro neighborhood, however, are skewed higher than that of the rest of the city with no homes selling for less than $300K in 2013. Over
the past three years, home prices in the Belcaro neighborhood have been on the rise with 89% of homes priced over $500K (up from only
65% two years ago).
Source: Metrolist, Inc.
MLS Data accuracy dependent upon broker entry accuracy
presented by: Leigh Wilbanks, Broker & Owner
[email protected] 303.884.9166 RedDoorDenver.com