Hotel Destinations South America

Hotels & Hospitality Group | September 2015
Hotel Destinations
South America
Welcome to the September 2015 edition of our
Hotel Destinations South America publication,
an annual overview providing a snapshot of key
hotel markets across South America.
As you browse through this guide, you will
find a selection of notable hotel trends, recent
transactions, upcoming new projects and a
summary of key market statistics for each
destination. We trust you will find this publication
relevant, concise and insightful.
We hope you enjoy the read.
Clay B. Dickinson
Managing Director
Latin America
JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group
Ricardo Mader
Managing Director
South America
JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group
Hotel Destinations South America
Contents
Foreword
04
06
City Profiles
06Bogotá D.C., Colombia
07Buenos Aires, Argentina
08 Lima, Perú
09 Santiago, Chile
10 São Paulo, Brazil
11
Contributors
14
Quick Facts
03
Foreword
A view on South America’s
leading destinations
São Paulo
Hotel Destinations South America
SILVER LININGS ON THE CLOUDY HORIZON?
What a difference a year can make! The outlook for emerging
markets in Latin America has deteriorated significantly from 2014
to 2015. Worsening terms of trade for the various commodities that
undergird the economies of most countries in the region, combined
with seemingly intractable structural impediments to important
political and economic reforms, have resulted in waning investor
interest in the region. This situation has resulted in material capital
outflow in a ‘flight to safety’ that has devastated local currency values
vis-à-vis the US Dollar (USD). The impact of these developments
has been felt in the region’s various lodging markets, as most have
sustained declines in revenue per available room (RevPAR) over the
past year. Moreover, the weakened economic outlook is expected to
persist into 2016, with virtually every country in the region revising
economic growth expectations downward.
Within this generally lackluster outlook, however, there are a number
of important factors that provide substantial cause for optimism. JLL’s
research covering trends in key South American lodging markets
indicate the following positive factors are broadly shared by the
countries of the region:
Macroeconomic environment – The general consensus is that
macroeconomic probity has left most countries in the region
better positioned to deal with the downturn than they were in last
emerging market crises of the late 1990s. As a result, significant
capital flight and economic meltdowns are not anticipated.
Exports – Currency devaluations have increased the
competitiveness of regional exports, particularly in the
nontraditional manufacturing and industrial sectors. This is
expected to stimulate employment and business travel in those
sectors.
Tourism – Similarly, business and leisure destinations in Latin
America have become more attractive to international tourists.
A brighter outlook for strategic source markets in the United
States and Europe, combined with lingering safety concerns
surrounding alternative destinations in North Africa and the Middle
East, contribute further to the appeal of regional tourism markets.
Increased international tourism, which is considered an export,
will serve to boost the region’s overall gross domestic product.
Lastly, domestic tourism is increasing rapidly, as travel abroad
has become prohibitively expensive for many citizens due to the
devaluation of their local currencies.
Investment – Many investors, particularly in Brazil, have remained
on the sidelines in recent years, waiting out what some perceived
to be a real estate pricing bubble. As prices have decreased
in both real and foreign exchange (FX)-driven terms, however,
private equity firms, family offices and strategic corporate buyers
are quietly surveying the market for more attractively priced deals.
“Domestic tourism is
increasing rapidly, as
travel abroad has become
prohibitively expensive
for many.”
Clay Dickinson
Managing Director
Latin America
JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group
Demand – In a reflection of the aforementioned factors, growth
in lodging demand continues to be robust in most of the strategic
markets surveyed. Revenue per available room (RevPAR)
decreases were caused in large part by FX-driven decreases
in US dollar-based average daily rates (ADR). Performance
fundamentals have remained strong in most markets, as can be
observed in our Hotel Destinations South America 2015 Report.
Further reforms – Notwithstanding the significant political and
economic reforms that were implemented in a few select countries,
the commodities-led boom of the last decade enabled other
countries to spend freely and dodge the more painful reforms that
continue to deter investment and economic growth. The current
economic pain is causing some of these countries to reassess
such intransigence.
The economic downturn that started in late 2014 and continued into
2015 is now projected to last through 2016. Moreover, a return to the
high growth rates experienced during the last decade is not expected
for the foreseeable future. However, most countries in the region
are now much better positioned to weather this economic storm
than they would have been ten years ago. The amount of foreign
direct investment and infrastructure improvements, coupled with the
expansion of the region’s middle class, have allowed for growth in
the tourism sector both domestically and internationally. Furthermore,
the influx of international and diversified branded lodging product in
the region has not only vastly improved regional service levels and
processes used in the hospitality industry, but also stimulated job
creation in the tourism industry. As a result, there are a number of
silver linings in the region’s otherwise stormy outlook.
05
06
Hotel Destinations South America
Bogotá
Bogotá is the major gateway to South America and a key hub for the Latin America region.
With its generally improving economy and security environment, the bustling city boasts
a rapidly growing international visitor base, derived primarily from the corporate demand
segment. According to Latin Trade, Bogotá accounts for around 25.0% of the nation’s gross
domestic product (US $70.3 billion) and is home to over 60.0% of its companies, housing
major offices and headquarters of prominent regional and global businesses. While Bogotá’s
culture and heritage has been preserved in certain areas of the city, there has also been an
explosion of modern urban development and renewal over the last decade, especially with
the construction of new high-rise office buildings, hotels and mixed-use developments in the
northern areas of the greater metropolitan area.
HIGHLIGHTS
Tourism
Demand
Supply
Outlook
Bogotá’s visitation levels for both
business and leisure travel could
stand to benefit from increased
destination marketing and reduced
costs of air travel. Although
infrastructure and connectivity
have significantly improved over
the past two years with the arrival
of numerous legacy carriers and
recent airport expansion, lodging
operators and tourism officials
continue to stress the importance
of route development in Bogotá in
order to reduce the cost of travel
and maintain Bogotá’s positioning
as a gateway city to the Americas.
Demand is primarily corporate
and government-related, as
evidenced by peak occupancy
levels (in the 85.0% - 95.0% range)
observed during the weekdays
and low occupancy levels (in the
30.0% - 40.0% range) during
the weekends. However, certain
submarkets within the city, such
as La Candelaria, receive some
leisure-oriented demand given the
historic nature of the area.
After several years of relatively
rapid growth, the supply pipeline
in Bogotá is expected to moderate
somewhat over the next three
years, with approximately ±900
rooms being added to its inventory,
according to STR. Transportation
challenges and zoning laws
have resulted in insular lodging
submarkets in Bogotá, with each
retaining idiosyncratic supply,
demand and performance
characteristics.
Bogotá’s travel and tourism
industry has improved significantly
over the past decade and its future
progress is dependent on the city’s
continued push to reposition itself
as a world-class and safe, worldclass destination. While businessrelated travel is likely to continue
to dominate lodging demand,
leisure demand should continue
to grow as the city’s historical,
cultural and gastronomical assets
are developed.
NEW HOTELS
2014*
Occupancy
| 62.6%
ADR
| $173
RevPAR| $108
% ∆ from year prior
| -13.7%
373
rooms
Grand Hyatt Bogotá
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
NH Bogotá
220 rooms | 2015
Price: $25.6M
Hoteles Royal Portfolio**
2015
Price: $74.4M
126
rooms
Four Seasons Bogotá;
Four Seasons
Casa Medina
(Conversion; two hotels)
144
rooms
Courtyard by Marriot
Bogotá Airport
100
rooms
132
rooms
Hampton Inn
Bogotá Usaquén
DoubleTree by Hilton Bogotá
Parque de la 93
(Conversion)
$158
$92 | -17.6%
QUICK FACTS
3.3 million +870 rooms
Number of international
visitor arrivals (2014)
Number of new hotel
rooms expected (2015+)
58.3%
Average occupancy
for YTD July 2015
Average rate for
YTD July 2015 (USD)
YTD July 2015 RevPAR +
% change v. YTD 2014 (USD)
Sources: Smith Travel Research (STR), Aerocivil, MinCIT, JLL | Note: Data is based on select branded upper-tier hotels that report to STR
* Year-end figures
** Includes management contracts and hotels
Hotel Destinations South America
07
Buenos Aires
As the second largest metropolitan area in South America, Buenos Aires continues
to be a major international tourist destination and Argentina’s major gateway city
and the country’s political, economic and financial hub. Famous for its Europeaninfluenced architecture and atmosphere, the city offers extensive cultural- and
entertainment-related demand generators such as high-end boutique shopping
corridors and charming dining meccas. Cosmopolitan and multifaceted, the capital
of Argentina is very well equipped for hosting conventions and trade shows of all
kinds, situating itself among the most attractive international locations for congress
and conventions, as evidenced by its consistent, number one ranking as the preferred
destination in the Americas for meetings and conventions.
HIGHLIGHTS
Tourism
Demand
Supply
Outlook
International visitor arrivals to
Argentina reached 5.93 million
in 2014, a 13.1% improvement
over 2013. Over the past five
years, international visitor arrivals
to Argentina have sustained a
compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 6.6%. Approximately
42% of all international travelers to
the country arrive in Buenos Aires.
Leisure visitation accounts for
roughly half of international travel
to Buenos Aires, while business
travel contributes only 20%.
Brazil remains the biggest
source market to Buenos Aires,
accounting for about 30% of
arrivals, followed by USA/Canada
with 10.6% and Chile with 9.6%,
according to government data.
Buenos Aires is one of the few
capital cities in South America that
features a more established base
of business, leisure, and group
demand.
Buenos Aires is home to some of
South America’s highest quality
hotel supply in terms of the number
of upper-tier, internationally
branded properties. The major hotel
developments that have occurred
over the past ten years have
primarily been four- and five-star
hotels. While the market is wellserved in terms of luxury and upper
upscale properties, the market has a
limited representation of high-quality,
branded select service hotels both
in downtown Buenos Aires and the
surrounding areas.
While the Hotel sector continues
to experience difficulties due to the
impact of lackluster economic growth
and high inflation on profit margins,
the outlook is one of guarded
optimism. The prospects for 2015
signal stable to moderately improved
performance leading up to the
presidential elections at the end of
the year. The outlook for 2016 could
vary, but market research indicates
a generally optimistic sentiment
that either party election winner is
expected to adopt a more favorable
stance with respect to investments.
NEW HOTELS
2014*
Occupancy
| 58.8%
ADR
| $193
RevPAR| $114
% ∆ from year prior
| -5.9%
150
rooms
Alvear Puerto Madero
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
Marriott Plaza Hotel
318 rooms | 2013
Price: $54.7M
The Brick House Buenos Aires
MGallery (former Caesar Park)
170 rooms | 2012
Price: $36.7M
* Year-end figures
QUICK FACTS
2.5 million +150 rooms
Number of international
visitor arrivals (2014)
Number of new hotel
rooms expected (2015+)
57.2%
Average occupancy
for YTD July 2015
$183
Average rate for
YTD July 2015 (USD)
Sources: Smith Travel Research (STR), Mintur, International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA), JLL
Note: Data is based on select branded upper-tier hotels that report to STR
$104 | -4.1%
YTD July 2015 RevPAR +
% change v. YTD 2014 (USD)
08
Hotel Destinations South America
Lima
Lima, Perú’s capital city, is strategically located along the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Lima
is the country’s most prominent historical, cultural and commercial center, boasting more
than 9 million inhabitants. Key tourist attractions include the old historic city, dotted with
Spanish colonial churches, monasteries, and government palaces. Until recently, the city was
often viewed as the unavoidable stopover point for visitors to Cuzco and the legendary Inca
ruins of Machu Picchu. In recent years, however, Perú’s macroeconomic stability and growth
has positioned Lima as an increasingly attractive destination for business, leisure and group
segments, which has afforded the city one of the least seasonal bases of demand in South
America. Lima’s growing reputation as a gastronomical hot spot draws an ever increasing
number of international tourists, while its strategic location and improvements to its airline
and port infrastructure further contribute to its appeal as a major regional transportation hub.
HIGHLIGHTS
Tourism
Demand
Supply
Outlook
International visitor arrivals to Perú
reached an all-time high during 2014
at 3.2 million, a 1.6% improvement
relative to 2013. Over the past five
years, international visitation levels
in Perú have grown at an impressive
compounded average annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 8.5%. The majority
of international tourist arrivals in
Perú specify Lima as their primary
destination in the country. With total
international arrivals amounting to
1.9 million in 2014, Lima continues
to promote route development
in order to support higher tourist
volume and traffic.
Chile and the United States remain
the dominant source markets for
the country, contributing 23.7%
and 13.4% respectively to total
tourist arrivals. Among Perú’s
top ten source markets in 2014,
Bolivia, Colombia and Spain were
the fastest growing markets,
registering year-over-year growth
rates of 17%, 11% and 8%,
respectively. Over the past few
years, the arrival of new grouporiented hotels, coupled with an
improvement in overall connectivity
from major source markets, have
fueled the growth of group demand
in Lima.
The majority of lodging supply
in Lima can be characterized
as unbranded, while supply
considered to be of international
standard remains fairly limited.
However, there are more than
1,700 rooms (mostly branded)
slated to enter the market over
the next three to five years. Only
one hotel opened in Lima City
throughout 2015, the Wyndham
Costa del Sol (144 rooms).
Over the past several years,
demand growth has significantly
outpaced supply and, as a result,
market-wide hotel performance
has remained strong. Similar to
other emerging markets, Perú is is
expected to soon face challenging
economic conditions. Nonetheless,
the outlook for Lima’s lodging
industry is expected to remain
stable, with marginal improvements
to market-wide occupancy supported
by the city’s varied demand mix.
The construction of Lima’s new
convention center is anticipated to
draw and bolster demand within the
MICE segment in the near term.
NEW HOTELS
2014*
Occupancy
| 69.3%
ADR
| $236
RevPAR| $164
% ∆ from year prior
| +10.3%
160
rooms
Ibis Reducto Miraflores
154
rooms
Courtyard Miraflores
90
rooms
Ramada San Isidro
100
rooms
Swissotel
(expansion)
90
rooms
Pardo DoubleTree
(expansion)
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
Thunderbird Principal
151 rooms | 2011
Price: $13.8M
QUICK FACTS
1.9 million +1,770 rooms 67.6%
Number of international
visitor arrivals (2014)
* Year-end figures
Number of new hotel
rooms expected (2015+)
Average occupancy
for YTD July 2015
$242
Average rate for
YTD July 2015 (USD)
$164 | -9.6%
YTD July 2015 RevPAR +
% change v. YTD 2014 (USD)
Sources: Smith Travel Research (STR), Mincetur, JLL | Note: Data is based on select branded upper-tier hotels that report to STR
MICE - Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions | CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
Hotel Destinations South America
09
Santiago
Santiago is the main destination and hub for both national and international tourism in Chile.
The country’s steady economic growth during last decade has transformed Santiago into
one of strongest financial and trade centers in all of South America. Santiago offers a range
of tourist attractions; the city’s mountainous terrain and presence of snow-capped mountain
ranges, coupled with the cultural and historic attractions, allows for a diverse tourism product
offering. The city center is always a gathering point for visitors, with its iconic historic
buildings and museums, and the bohemian neighborhoods of Bella Vista and Lastarria provide
a pedestrian-friendly corridor of distinguished restaurants, art galleries, and boutiques. The
city is also home to some of the region’s most unique tourist attractions, including wineries
located along the valleys surrounding Santiago, ski resorts atop the Andes and beaches of
Valparaiso and Viña del Mar.
HIGHLIGHTS
Tourism
Demand
Supply
Outlook
International visitor arrivals to Chile
reached 3.7 million in 2014, a 2.7%
improvement over 2013. Over the
past five years, international visitor
arrivals to Chile have recorded
a compounded average annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9%. The
majority of international travelers
arrive to Santiago, the main port of
entry in this country.
Santiago attracts many foreign
tourists due to its cultural
attractions, natural scenery and
widespread gastronomical options.
The majority of tourists come from
other South American countries,
especially Brazil and Argentina,
but but demand is growing from
distant countries such as United
States and Germany. In addition to
leisure tourism, corporate demand
in Santiago is very prominent, as
the city features a concentration
of headquarters for prominent
Chilean companies.
Santiago has a relatively diverse
and well-developed hotel
supply compared to other South
American cities, largely because
the comparative availability of
financing for hotel development
in the city has enabled its supply
to keep pace with demand
increases over the last decade.
Santiago’s lodging market contains
approximately 8,500 rooms with
diverse positioning, and many
international chains have arrived to
the city in the past decade.
Reduced investment in the
mining sector, one of Chile’s
major economic sectors, has
negatively impacted the growth
in overall corporate demand.
This factor, coupled with the
contraction in overall leisure
tourism from neighboring
economically challenged countries
such as Brazil and Argentina are
expected to impact Santiago’s
lodging market. Lastly, the robust
growth in supply is anticipated to
impact occupancy in 2015 before
recovering in 2016.
NEW HOTELS
2014*
Occupancy
| 62.2%
ADR
| $193
RevPAR| $126
% ∆ from year prior
| -3.4%
340
rooms
Diego de Almagro
Providencia
225
rooms
Hotel Cumbres Vitacura
253
rooms
AC by Marriott
126
rooms
Park Inn
180
rooms
Regal Pacific Manquehue
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
Santiago Portfolio
875 rooms | 3 Hotels** | 2013
Price: $230M
NOI Vitacura
87 rooms | 2011
Price: $24M
QUICK FACTS
1.5 million +2,290 rooms 62.5%
Number of international
visitor arrivals (2014)
Number of new hotel
rooms expected (2015+)
Average occupancy
for YTD July 2015
$199
Average rate for
YTD July 2015 (USD)
$125 | -2.4%
YTD July 2015 RevPAR +
% change v. YTD 2014 (USD)
Sources: Smith Travel Research (STR), JAC Chile, JLL | Note: Data is based on select branded upper-tier hotels that report to STR
* Year-end figures
** Crowne Plaza, Ritz-Carlton, Intercontinental
10
Hotel Destinations South America
São Paulo
São Paulo, the fourth most populous city in the world, is the financial and corporate
capital of Brazil, as well as a main gateway and key hub for South America. As the main
business and financial center in Brazil, São Paulo is home to some of the most prominent
international companies and high-end office towers in the country, many of which are
located in the Faria Lima and Berrini regions. Moreover, São Paulo hosts over 90,000
events, making it one of the preferred and top-ranked meetings and events destinations
worldwide. The city offers extensive shopping, entertainment and dining experiences,
which combined with recent investments in infrastructure such as airports, metro systems
and event spaces should maintain São Paulo’s status as the primary choice for events and
business in Brazil.
HIGHLIGHTS
Tourism
Demand
Supply
Outlook
The airports operate at near
maximum capacity with a total
passenger volume of 57.3 million
for both airports in 2014, an 8%
increase from 2013. Global events
such as the 2014 World Cup
have sparked visitor interest and
helped cast a positive light on
this city’s tourism offerings from
an international perspective. The
majority of the tourists in 2014
originated from South America due
to the World Cup.
Overall, 52% of hotel demand in
São Paulo is corporate, followed
by group (20%), leisure (12%)
and and other demand segments
(16%). Normally around 15% of
demand is international, with the
United States being the major
generator, followed by Germany
and Argentina. However in 2014,
the international demand increased
to 35%, due to the World Cup,
with South American visitors
representing the majority.
After a significant volume of new
openings in the early 2000s,
virtually no new supply has
entered the São Paulo market
in recent years. In 2014, there
were many conversions but no
new openings. Between 2015 and
2019, the lodging supply pipeline
is estimated at 4,200 rooms,
most of which are expected to
be affiliated with international
brands. The market’s luxury
segment will undergo a notable
supply expansion, with Rosewood
and Four Seasons hotels under
construction, as well as two other
planned luxury hotel projects.
Despite the economic downturn,
the São Paulo market has been
less affected due to its strong
economic base and diversity of
hotel demand sources. Occupancy
levels have remained stable in
the 65% to 67% range. Given the
currency devaluation against the
USD, ADR levels are registering
a more dramatic negative impact
year-to-date (-32%); however, when
viewed in local currency terms,
ADRs only decreased 12% YTD July
2015 compared to the same period
prior year. That said, the addition
of internationally-recognized luxury
brands should help bolster city-wide
ADR levels in the near future.
NEW HOTELS
2014*
Occupancy
| 67.3%
ADR
| $314
RevPAR| $212
% ∆ from year prior
| +5.9%
240
rooms
Four Seasons
151
rooms
Rosewood São Paulo
140
rooms
Palácio Tangará
150
210
rooms
Grand Hotel Ca d’oro
rooms
Novotel SP Berrini
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
Tivoli São Paulo Mofarrej
220 rooms | 2015
Price: $25.6M
Hotel Pergamon
120 rooms | 2014
Price: Confidential
QUICK FACTS
2.2 million +4,200 rooms 66.1%
Number of international
visitor arrivals (2014)
Number of new hotel
rooms expected (2015+)
Average occupancy
for YTD July 2015
$232
Average rate for
YTD July 2015 (USD)
$154 | -33.5%
YTD July 2015 RevPAR +
% change v. YTD 2014 (USD)
Sources: Smith Travel Research (STR), JLL | Note: Data is based on select branded upper-tier hotels that report to STR
* Year-end figures
Hotel Destinations South America
Quick facts
São Paulo
2.2M arrivals
Bogotá
3.3M arrivals
+870 rooms
+4,200 rooms
Lima
1.9M arrivals
+1,770 rooms
Buenos Aires
2.5M arrivals
+150 rooms
Santiago
1.5M arrivals
+2,290 rooms
Number of international
visitor arrivals (2014)
Number of new hotel rooms
expected (2015+)
11
12
Hotel Destinations South America
Lodging Performance by City Profiled
As observed in the individual city overviews, occupancy levels across all cities profiled in this report have remained relatively stable
over the past year. RevPAR levels in USD terms show notable declines year-to-date, primarily due to the impact of the local currency
devaluation against the USD in some of these South American cities. In local currency terms, however, the impact on ADR is less
pronounced and sustained demand growth should be able to aid in a faster RevPAR recovery.
REVPAR
YTD JULY 2015 V. YTD JULY 2014 FIGURES
-33%
USD$250
$200
+10%
$150
-18%
-3%
-4%
$100
$50
$0
2014 2015
Bogotá
2014 2015
Buenos Aires
2014 2015
Lima
2014 2015
Santiago
2014 2015
São Paulo
Source: Smith Travel Research (STR), JLL | Note: YTD = Year-to-Date | YTD July data is based on select branded upper-tier hotels
that report to STR
Percentage change reflects the YTD RevPAR change between 2014 and 2015
REVPAR
YEAR-END 2014 V. YEAR-END 2013 FIGURES
USD$250
+6%
$200
$150
+10%
-14%
-3%
-6%
$100
$50
$0
2013 2014
Bogotá
2013 2014
Buenos Aires
2013 2014
Lima
2013 2014
Santiago
2013 2014
São Paulo
Source: Smith Travel Research (STR), JLL | Note: Data is based on select branded upper-tier hotels that report to STR
Percentage change reflects the year-end RevPAR change between 2013 and 2014
Hotel Destinations South America
13
Big changes
on the horizon
Look out for our next edition!
Lima (Miraflores)
Contributors
Clay B. Dickinson
Managing Director
Latin America
[email protected]
Ricardo Mader
Managing Director
South America
[email protected]
Roberta Oncken
Senior Vice President
[email protected]
Santiago Berraondo
Vice President
[email protected]
Wendy Chan
Vice President
[email protected]
Kent Michels
Vice President
Americas Head of Hotels & Hospitality Research
[email protected]
KuKi DiCunto
Vice President
[email protected]
Juliana Carbonari
Associate
[email protected]
Eric Gorenstein
Analyst
[email protected]
Nicole Del Busto
Analyst
[email protected]
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