Samudera Shipping Line - KGI Fraser Securities

Transcription

INITIATION REPORT
Singapore
Samudera Shipping Line Monday, 24 October 2011
(SAMU SP; SAMU.SI )
Buy
Pri ce a s of 6 Jul 2015
0.275
12M ta rget pri ce (S$)
0.370
Previ ous ta rget pri ce (S$)
-
Ups i de, i ncl di v (%)
38.8
Trading data
Ma rket Ca p (S$m)
148.3
Is s ued Sha res (m)
Ave Da i l y Tra ded
(3-Month) Vol / Va l
539.1
0.5m / $0.1m
52 week l o / hi
$0.14 / $0.35
Free Fl oa t
34.8%
Major Shareholders
PT Sa mudera Indones i a
65.3%
SAMU SP (Blue) vs. FSSTI
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
3,700
3,500
3,300
3,100
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Source: Bloomberg
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
2,900
Sail with this nimble & resilient ship
We initiate coverage on Samudera Shipping Line (Samudera) with a BUY
recommendation. The company has managed to recover from a tough year
in FY13 to post a six year record net profit in FY14. We expect this year to be
another record breaking year. We see Samudera benefiting from the influx
of mega container ships that are leading to higher demand for feeder
services. Hence, we believe Samudera to be a well positioned ship to ride
this wave of upswing in the feeder services segment, more so given its
undemanding valuations compared to peers.
Nimble company with good operational track record. Samudera is an
experienced shipping operator with more than 20 years of operations in
Asia. Since listing in 1997, it has managed to stay profitable except only for
FY09 (overall downturn in shipping industry) and FY13 (due to unprofitable
shipping routes and vessels that the group disposed in FY14). Its quick
turnaround back to profitability after a year of loss highlights the group’s
key strength of being able to quickly adapt to changes within the shipping
industry.
Competitive advantage to service Asian trade with its smaller vessels.
Samudera’s current fleet of smaller sized vessels places it in a good position
to operate in the region’s limited port infrastructure, where bigger vessels
are unable to operate in. We see the ongoing trend of mega container ships
(~18,000 teu) creating more demand for Samudera’s feeder services (1,0002,000 teu).
Container shipping showing early signs of improvement. Global trade is
well alive despite patchy economic growth around the world. Global
economic growth is expected to pickup next year to 3.8% (IMF estimates).
World seaborne trade grows at a much faster pace of 1.13 times the world
economy, according to Clarksons. Another positive factor in container
shipping is the improving supply/demand balance of container vessels ordering of new container ships is slowing down while demolitions of old
vessels is increasing. This is a positive trend that may eventually lead to a
better supply-demand balance in the container shipping industry.
Financials & Key Operating Statistics
Joel Ng
[email protected]
+65 6236 2630
YE Dec (US$ m)
Revenue
Gross Profit
PATMI
Core PATMI
Core EPS
Core EPS grth (%)
Core P/E (x)
DPS (SG cents)
Div Yield (%)
Gross Margin (%)
Net Margin (%)
Gearing (%)
Price / Book (x)
2013
391.2
9.2
-2.2
-2.2
-0.4
-156.4
-50.0
0.0
0.0
2.4
-0.6
52.3
0.5
So urce: Co mpany Data, KGI Fraser
Please see important disclosures at the end of this publication
2014
364.2
31.7
14.3
14.3
2.7
-751.2
7.7
1.8
6.4
8.7
3.9
32.8
0.4
2015F
368.5
35.0
18.1
18.1
3.4
26.4
6.1
0.9
3.2
9.5
4.9
23.1
0.4
2016F
403.4
36.3
18.6
18.6
3.5
2.9
5.9
0.9
3.2
9.0
4.6
15.5
0.4
2017F
442.2
39.8
20.7
20.7
3.9
11.5
5.3
0.9
3.2
9.0
4.7
6.7
0.4
Singapore
Samudera Shipping Line
Table of Contents
Page
Company overview ............................................................................... 3
Resilient business model ...................................................................... 5
Strong balance sheet and cash flows .................................................... 7
Tapping on the growing feeder services in Asia .................................... 8
Forecast and assumptions ................................................................. 11
Valuation ............................................................................................ 14
Key catalysts and risks ........................................................................ 15
Summary of Financials ........................................................................ 16
Appendices: ....................................................................................... 17
Key Management .........................................................................17
Vessels in Samudera’s fleet ..........................................................18
Service network ...........................................................................20
Peer comparison and performance .............................................21
July 7, 2015
2
$ 222
Singapore
Company Overview
History
Samudera was incorporated in 1993 and has established activities mainly in
Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and the Far East. The group has two
key business segments: a) container shipping and b) bulk and tanker shipping.
Samudera is a part of Samudera Indonesia Group. This allows the group to tap
on the marine and land transportation infrastructure of its parent company to
provide value added services to customers.
The group’s strengths rests mainly in its shipping feeder services (85% of its
revenues) between hub ports, such as Singapore, and other smaller ports
around Asia. It is headquartered in Singapore and has regional offices in
Indonesia, Cambodia, China, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar and India.
Samudera owns 26 vessels and also charters in another 19 vessels, giving it the
flexibility to adjust its fleet size to market conditions. In total, it has 45 vessels
consisting of 28 container vessels, 2 oil tankers, 7 chemical tankers, 2 gas
tankers, 5 marine offshore support vessels and 2 dry bulk carriers. The group
sees growth opportunities in other segments such as LNG shipping in the
region and may look to expand its services in the future.
Figure 1: Samudera’s diversified fleet servicing the Asian region
Vessels
Conta i ner ves s el s
Oi l ta nkers
Chemi ca l ta nkers
Ga s ta nkers
Ma ri ne offs hore s upport ves s el s
Dry bul k ca rri ers
Tota l
Owned
13
2
7
2
1
1
26
Chartered
15
4
Total
Capacity
30,433.0
35,392.0
38,292.0
147,260.0
2,676.0
114,700.0
Unit
TEU
DWT
DWT
CBM
DWT
DWT
19
Source: Company
Figure 2: Samudera’s established service network in Asia
Source: Company
July 7, 2015
3
$ 333
Singapore
Established experience as a shipping operator in the Asian region
1993
Incorporated in Singapore for container shipping business
1994
Began feeder routes in Jakarta, Indonesia and Bangkok, Thailand.
1995
Extension of network to India, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Malaysia
and other Indonesian ports.
1996
Entered into bulk and carrier & tanker business through Singapore subsidiary, Foremost Maritime Pte Ltd
1997
Listed in Singapore Stock Exchange. Expanded to China, HK
and South Korea.
1998
Expansion to United Arab Emirate (UAE). Commended by PSA
for being part of the list of top 10 achievers of throughput
amongst all vessel operators that call at Singapore terminals.
1999
Expanded to Indian sub-continent. Additional capital of
S$32.9m raised through share placement.
2000
Samudera upgraded to main board of SGX. Began bulk carrier
& tanker business in Indonesia through PT Samudera Shipping
Service.
2008
Took delivery of 5 newbuild container vessels to serve regional and Indonesian domestic container shipping market.
2010
Remained top 10 vessel operator in terms of container
throughput calling at terminals of PSA.
2011
Acquired 3 container vessels to strengthen Indonesian domestic market presence. Took delivery of 2 Supramax bulk carriers.
2012
Expanded service offerings to include ship manning, vessel
operation and maintenance management for a major oil and
gas company in Indonesia.
2013
Samudera recorded a loss of US$2.1m as revenues declined
following lower freight rates and consolidation of services.
2014
The group’s initiative to restructure its network and lower fuel
costs sees the group recover healthily to its highest net profit
Source: Company
July 7, 2015
4
$ 444
Singapore
Resilient container shipping company in a growing
region
Samudera’s business is mainly derived from container shipping (85% of total
revenues in the last 5 years), with bulk and tanker container contributing the
rest. After years of growth following the global financial crisis in 2008/2009,
revenues declined in 2013 as the container shipping industry grappled with
overcapacity and as its Indonesian business dragged down performance.
However, the group has been quick to turnaround whenever it faced
challenges, highlighting what we believe is an experienced management team
that knows how to adapt to the competitive shipping environment.
The group’s operations mainly serves the Southeast Asian markets, with
Indonesia making up half of total revenues. Samudera’s current fleet of smaller
sized vessels (1,000 to 4,600 teu) places it in a good position to operate in the
region’s limited port infrastructure, including Indonesia and India. Close to 85%
of the cargo Samudera carries come from feeder services connecting hubs such
as Singapore with other smaller regional ports.
Figure 3: Container shipping makes up the bulk of revenues
500
74
US$ m
400
300
376
58
65
398
308
65
54
53
52
306
306
315
324
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
54
323
2013
200
100
0
2010
2011
2012
Container Shipping
Bulk and Tanker
Source: Company
Figure 4: Most of its revenues are from the fast growing markets in the ASEAN region
500
US$m
400
300
200
100
118
129
109
87
210
108
212
174
161
141
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Indonesia
Southeast Asia (exc Indonesia)
Middle East and Indian Sub-continent
Far East
Others
Source: Company
July 7, 2015
5
$ 555
Singapore
Coming out stronger after FY09 and FY13
Samudera’s losses in FY09 and FY13 were mainly because of macro factors that
affected all container shipping companies. Almost all major container shipping
companies registered losses (Maersk, China Cosco, China Shipping, Mitsui,
Evergreen, Neptune) in 2009 and continued struggling with profitability from
2011 to 2013 (Figure 5). The decline in oil prices in 2014 benefitted most
shipping companies, including Samudera. However, Samudera has more
importantly improved its operations for sustainable growth in the long term
during this period. This includes actions such as removing unprofitable shipping
routes and taking an asset light strategy by chartering in vessels.
Figure 6: Samudera has emerged leaner and stronger after a
year of streamlined operations
Figure 5: Main shipping operators average operating margins
have been weak since 2011 to 2014
20
US$ m
15
14.3
12.6
9.4
10
4.2
5
0
2010
2011
2012
(5)
2013
-2.2
2014
Net Income
Source: Company
Source: BIMCO, Alphaliner
Decent dividend yield with upside potential
Samudera is currently yielding around 6% (based on FY14 pay out of 1.75
SGcents). The group paid out 1.75 SGcents dividend per share in FY14,
compensating for the missed dividend in FY13. We understand that Samudera
has a dividend pay-out policy of at least 20% of net profits. We estimate that
the group can pay out at least 30% of net profits based on its healthy balance
sheet, strong cash flows and track record of 30% payout ratio. This would imply
a decent dividend yield of 3%, with upside potential when the container
shipping industry improves.
Figure 7: Decent 3% dividend yield with potential when container shipping improves
6.6
DPS - Cents
1.5
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
1.0
1.8
2.5
0.5
2.0
1.5
1.2
0.5
0.3
0.2
2010
2011
2012
0.0
3.0
net DPS - (cts) SGD
1.0
0.0
2013
Dividend Yield %
2.0
0.0
2014
Dividend yield (%)
Source: Company
July 7, 2015
6
$ 666
Singapore
Strong balance sheet and cash flows
One of the lowest geared shipping companies among peers
Samudera has been strengthening its balance sheet in the past four years. It
has lowered its net gearing from 0.7x to 0.3x as at end FY14 and we expect it to
drop further to 0.1x by end FY17. Its free cash flow has also improved over the
last three years, from negative free cash flow of US$65m in FY11, to a healthy
US$37m free cash flow in FY14. The unusually high US$82m capex spend in
FY13 was primarily invested to capitalize on the Indonesian Cabotage law, by
increasing its Indonesia-flagged vessels for the domestic container shipping
market. Capex is expected to be minimal at around US$15m p.a. going forward
as it employs a more flexible business model of chartering in vessels.
Compared to its peers’ net gearing levels of 1.5x on average, Samudera’s 0.3x
net gearing gives it a lot of headroom to raise more debt to fund expansion
plans. One area of expansion may include the LNG tanker business. The group
already has one foot in the door with a 25% stake in a LNG tanker that has a
long term contract secured. Another potential expansion could include
acquisition of distressed assets.
Figure 7: Improving free cash flows have allowed it to strengthen its balance sheet
60
37
40
US$ m
20
24
16
9
0
(20)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(40)
(60)
-65
(80)
Free cash flow
Source: Company
Figure 8: Low debt levels allow for more room to grow
80.0
75.4
66.3
70.0
60.0
54.9
52.3
US$ m
50.0
40.0
32.8
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Net gearing (%)
Source: Company
July 7, 2015
7
$ 777
Singapore
Tapping on the growing feeder services in Asia
World seaborne trade grows faster than the world economy
Growth is expected to be volatile with diverging trajectories
in different regions. Regions such as North America are
showing signs of growth, offset by weak economic data in
Europe, Japan and China. Despite the uneven growth, global
economic growth is still expected to pick up next year to
3.8% according to the IMF. Overall, the big picture is still
expected to provide for a positive case for container
shipping services.
Figure 9: World seaborne trade grows faster than world
GDP growth
According to Clarkson Research Services, world seaborne
trade has historically increased faster than world economic
growth by around 1.13 times over the past 5 years. While
the world’s economy is expected to grow by 3.5% YoY in
2015, world seaborne trade could grow at a faster pace of
4.1% YoY.
Source: UNCTAD
Demand/supply in container shipping is improving as new orders slow down
and demolition of older vessels increase
The orders for new container ships are slowing down. In 1Q15, the number of
containerships being ordered has declined 48% to 301 total containerships in
1Q15, according to data by IHS. Orderbook as a percentage of total capacity
has dropped to 17% as compared to 33% from 5 years ago, a positive sign for
the industry. Another positive trend has been the increase in number of vessels
being demolished, from around 450 per quarter in 2010 to 1080 per quarter in
2015.
Overall, the slowdown in new orders and the increased removal of older
vessels is a positive trend that may finally lead to a better supply-demand
balance. The feeder services is also in a better position given that most of the
current orders are for larger container vessels.
Figure 10: The slowing orders for vessels is positive for the supply-demand balance
45
40
37
33
35
29
27 27
26 26 26 26
24
30
22 21 21
20
20 20
19 19
18 18
17 17 17
25
20
15
10
Orderbook % of DWT
39
5
2010 Q2
2011 Q2
2012 Q2
2013 Q2
2014 Q2
0
2015 Q2
Orderbook as a % of DWT
Source: IHS , KGI Fraser
July 7, 2015
8
$ 888
Singapore
Temporary boost to margins from lower bunker fuel prices
Bunker fuel prices are closely correlated to oil prices. As a result of the decline
in oil prices, bunker fuel prices are now around 35% lower YoY. The lower
bunker fuel costs has benefitted shipping companies’ profitability because fuel
costs typically make up between 40% to 70% of shipping companies operating
costs.
Although shipping operators have benefitted from the lower bunker fuel costs
in 2014, cost savings are eventually passed on to customers who demand lower
freight rates for new contracts. Thus, in our forecasts, we assume lower gross
and profit margins in later years to take this into account.
Figure 11: Cost savings are eventually priced on to customers
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
Bunker Index 380
Source: Bloomberg, KGI Fraser
The chart below shows the effect of lower bunker fuel prices on the shipping
industry. We saw improvements in gross and net profit margins across the
board in the 12 container shipping companies that we analyzed. But this is only
temporary as we are starting to see cost savings passed on to customers.
16
11
8
11
1
11
1
(4)
(1)
(1)
(3)
0
(2)
(1)
(5)
(7)
FY13
FY14
Samudera
Yang ming marine
Hanjin shipping co
Hyundai merchant
Wan hai lines
Kawasaki kisen kaisha
Orient overseas intl
(12)
Nippon yusen
China shipping container-h
1
(9)
(8)
Mitsui osk lines
(9)
(14)
4
4
Evergreen marine corp
1
3
01
4
3
Neptune orient lines
6
China cosco holdings-h
Net Profit Margins (%)
Figure 12: Net profit margins improved across the board in FY14
July 7, 2015
9
$ 999
Singapore
Feeder services to benefit from more mega container ships and growing intra
-Asian trade
Samudera stands to benefit from the new mega container ships (ultra-large
container carriers) being ordered by the major container shipping companies.
New vessels being ordered has reached a new size milestone of 20,500 teu and
are unsuitable for domestic ports around the Asian region. As a result, new
feeder routes are increasing to handle intra-regional trade.
Feeder services freight rates are holding up well compared to major shipping
lanes. The main reason for the drop in freight rates in major shipping routes
may be attributed to the continuing oversupply with container vessels and the
decline in Chinese trade with external countries. Intra-Asia, however, is
supported by economic growth in the Asian region. According to forecasts by
IHS, the ASEAN region is projected to be the fourth largest economy by 2050,
after China, India and the United States. Its population of 600m makes it larger
than the European Union or North America.
Samudera operates in all the major ASEAN countries, which include Singapore,
Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines. GDP
growth has averaged 6% over the past 4 years, benefitting the intra-Asian
trading routes. From 2010 to 2013 (latest data provided by ASEAN),
merchandise trade in the region grew from US$ 1.1bn to US$2.5bn, or a CAGR
of 7.7% over the period. Growth in GDP per capita has outpaced the rest of the
world and with that, consumer demand. This is evident in ASEAN imports
growing at 9.0% CAGR from 2010 to 2013.
ASEAN accounts for 7% of global exports, with expectations that this will
increase as manufacturers shift production from China to lower cost
alternatives including Malaysia and Vietnam. ASEAN trails only the EU, North
America and China/Hong Kong as the largest exporting region in the world.
Another positive trend for regional trade is the specialization of countries in
the products they manufacture and export: Malaysia and Singapore in
electronics and petrochemicals, Thailand in automobiles, Vietnam in textiles
and apparel and Indonesia in commodities.
Figure 13: Riding on the growth in the ASEAN region
Indi ca tors
Total land area
Uni t
2010
2011
2012
2013
km2
4,435,670
4,435,674
4,435,617
4,435,618
thous a nd
600,291
609,161
617,165
625,091
US$ mi l l i on
1,884,068
2,184,833
2,321,075
2,395,253
percent
7.8
4.9
5.8
5.2
US$
3,139
3,587
3,761
3,832
US$ mi l l i on
2,009,116
2,388,444
2,476,427
2,511,517
Export
US$ mi l l i on
1,051,614
1,242,199
1,254,581
1,271,128
Import
US$ mi l l i on
957,502
1,146,245
1,221,847
1,240,388
US$ mi l l i on
100,360
97,538
114,284
122,377
thous a nd
73,752.6
81,229.0
89,225
98,016
Total population
Gross domestic product at current prices
GDP growth
Gross domestic product per capita at current prices
International merchandise trade
Foreign direct investments inflow
Visitor arrivals
Source: ASEANstats, ASEAN Secretariat, KGI Fraser
July 7, 2015
10
$ 101010
Singapore
Forecasts and assumptions
Key drivers for revenues and profit margins
Revenues are driven by total volume handled and freight rates. Samudera has
fared much better in its freight rates given that its intra-Asian service network
has been less affected by the declines elsewhere (e.g. Asia-America or AsiaEurope routes). Intra-Asian container price index (Figure 15) showed a drop of
14% from peak to trough in the past 4 years, compared to a 31% drop in AsiaEurope, highlighting the more stable shipping environment in intra-Asian trade.
Another positive note is that intra-Asian index seems to be stabilizing at
current levels and may provide upside when economic activities pick up.
Meanwhile, volume handled is a function of both the number of vessels
operating in its fleet and utilization rates.
Profit margins are driven by bunker fuel, vessel chartering and manpower
costs. Operating costs for container vessels have been increasing at around 1%
p.a. over the last three years but the drop in oil prices in 2H14 was able to
improve margins considerably, such that most container shipping companies
were able to turn profitable in 2014. Our assumptions and explanations for
margins are detailed in the following pages.
Figure 14: We assume volume to be flat this year; growth to continue next year
35,000
30,000
TEU
25,000
26,824
26,421
26,421
2011
2012
2013
24,564
27,550
27,550
2014
2015F
28,928
30,374
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010
2016F
2017F
Total TEU (beginning of year)
Source: Company, KGI Fraser
111
112
120
109
105
104
98
96
96
97
101
101
110
98
101
100
90
94
78
83
81
79
76
80
80
81
75
70
70
70
60
CTS Container Price Index
Figure 15: Intra-Asia trade has been doing better than Asia-Europe routes
2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Asia - Europe
Asia - Asia
Source: CTS, KGI Fraser
July 7, 2015
11
$ 111111
Singapore
Sustainable margins as it focuses on profitable shipping routes
We estimate gross profit margins to normalize over the next few years as the
group reduces unprofitable shipping routes and as freight rates recover. Our
estimates for FY15-17 gross margins normalizes at 9% from FY16 onwards,
around its 10 years average of 8.5% gross profit margins. This is reasonable in
our view given that gross profit margins has actually improved over the recent
three quarters to 9.7%, 12.1% and 10.8% in 3Q14, 4Q14 and 1Q15,
respectively.
For net profit margins, we estimate net profit margins to improve accordingly
on the back of improved gross profit margins. We estimate net profit margins
to average around 4.6% over the next three years, slightly above the average
10 years net profit margins. We see the above average margins as achievable
given that pre GFC period of 2008, net profit margins were averaging 7%. From
2009 to 2014, the industry went through a painful overcapacity situation where
it is slowly emerging from. In addition, FY12-13 were difficult years for the
group as its Indonesian business dragged overall performance.
Figure 16: We see gross profit margins improving as it streamlines operations
18
16.0%
16
14
Forecast
13.7%
11.3%
%
12
11.9%
10
9.5%
8.7%
7.6%
8
9.0% 9.0%
7.7%
6.1%
6
4.5%
2.4%
3.4%
4
2
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F2016F2017F
Gross Margin
Average
Source: Company
Figure 17: More upside possible when container markets turn around
14
12.2%
12
10
Forecast
9.1%
8
5.4%
5.9%
%
6
3.9%
4
4.8% 4.5% 4.6%
2.5% 2.6%
2.4%
2
0.9%
0
-2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F2016F2017F
-4
-2.7%
Net Income Margin
-0.6%
Average
Source: Company
July 7, 2015
12
$ 121212
Singapore
This year may prove to be another multi-year record for earnings
Revenues is expected to be flat this year as Samudera focuses instead on
improving its margins. We estimate revenues to start picking up from FY16
onwards as it benefits from higher volume handled and higher freight rates.
Freight rates improvement of 5-6% in FY16/17 is achievable, in our view, given
the growing demand for feeder services around the Asian region.
Total volume handled in 2015 is expected to be around 2014 levels as
Samudera continues to reduce unprofitable lines. More positively, we estimate
total volume to improve around 5% p.a. from FY16 onwards as it expands into
new shipping routes such as Cambodia.
We estimate that Samudera can comfortably grow its earnings by 25% YoY this
year to reach around US$18m, driven mainly by higher margins. Its first quarter
earnings already make up 28% of our full year forecasts. Net profit for FY16-17
is estimated to grow thereafter at 1-11% p.a. as margins begin to normalize to
sustainable levels.
Figure 18: Revenues to start picking up from FY16 onwards
600
Forecast
500
409 409
US$
400
353
454 468
443
377
330
391
369
403
364 368
442
300
200
100
-
Revenue
Figure 19: FY15 net income of US$18m; 1Q15 net income already 28% of our forecast
60
50
50
40
Forecast
32
26
US$
30
20
20
10
9
10
14
12
18
18
20
4
(10)
(20)
-2
-9
Net Income
July 7, 2015
13
$ 131313
Singapore
Valuation
Profitable, healthy balance sheet and undemanding P/E and P/B ratios
The market is pricing Samudera in line with other shipping companies such as
First Ship Lease (FSLT SP) and Rickmers Maritime (RMT SP) based on P/B ratios.
These companies are not comparable as they basically charter out their vessels
to vessel operators such as Samudera. The association with them incorrectly
undervalues Samudera’s profitable business and healthy balance sheet.
NOL (NOL SP) can be considered Samudera’s closest peer as they both operate
vessels in the container shipping business. However, NOL operates in the more
competitive trading routes while Samudera operates in Asia’s feeder services
that is seeing growing demand. Samudera’s 0.4x P/B compared to NOL’s 0.6x
P/B (post APL Logistics sale) undervalues Samudera’s good track record of
profitability and healthy balance sheet. Its 35% net gearing is the lowest
compared to peers’ 60-200% net gearing. In terms of earnings, Samudera’s 6x
FY15 P/E is around half of SG and international peers.
With all the right ingredients in place including improving profitability, healthy
balance sheet and earnings/book multiples at deep discounts to peers, we see
Samudera as an attractive and stable ship to sail with. Taking into account its
smaller size relative to international peers, we believe 8x FY16F P/E (20%
discount to international peers’ average P/E) is justified for Samudera.
Therefore, we recommend to BUY Samudera with a TP of S$0.36. Investors can
take comfort that even at our TP price, this would only value Samudera at an
attractive 0.55x FY15F P/B, still one of the lowest among its peers.
Figure 20: Peer comparison
Company
Mkt Cap
(S$m)
P/E (x)
(hist)
P/E (x)
(fwd)
P/B (x)
0.28
148
5.5
6.1
0.4
BIG CAP CONTAINER SHIPPING - INTERNATIONAL
AP Moeller-B
MAERSKB DC 11,780.00
China Cosco-H
1919 HK
4.25
China Shipping-H
2866 HK
2.50
Nippon Yusen
9101 JP
339.00
Mitsui OSK Lines
9104 JP
385.00
Orient Overseas
316 HK
37.75
Kawasaki Kisen
9107 JP
286.00
Wan Hai Lines
2615 TT
26.25
Evergreen Marine
2603 TT
16.75
Neptune Orient
NOL SP
0.90
Hyundai Merchant
011200 KS
7,190.00
Hanjin Shipping
117930 KS
5,420.00
Yang Ming Marine
2609 TT
11.55
50,068
16,168
13,358
6,345
5,112
4,113
2,957
2,542
2,543
2,328
1,760
1,593
1,512
14.2
96.0
21.8
12.1
10.9
11.2
10.0
8.7
13.2
16.3
8.2
28.4
16.0
9.3
8.8
6.5
8.5
9.7
11.2
55.3
9.8
11.7
1.0
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
1.5
0.9
1.0
2.0
1.4
1.0
14
1
4
6
6
6
6
19
7
(9)
13
(36)
7
4.5
29.4
8.6
15.7
9.7
6.1
7.7
11.3
15.2
60.6
10.9
14.2
21.2
106.4
60.3
88.1
117.9
63.0
11.4
90.9
225.7
505.2
664.5
164.0
2.5
2.4
1.8
2.2
1.7
7.6
0.6
-
SMALL-MID CAP CONTAINER SHIPPING - INTERNATIONAL AND SINGAPORE
Naigai Trans Line
9384 JP
1,261.00
148
AIT Corp
9381 JP
1,162.00
253
First Ship Lease
FSLT SP
0.17
112
Rickmers Maritime
RMT SP
0.27
229
40.2
21.6
5.9
-
10.0
17.5
-
1.9
4.6
0.3
5
23
5
(2)
4.8
10.9
4.8
NC
NC
100.5
73.8
1.6
2.6
12.0
Average (Excluding Samudera)
21.7
15.1
1.3
5
14.3
163.8
3.5
Samudera Shipping
Bloomberg
Ticker
SAMU SP
Price
(Lcl curr)
ROE
(%)
EV/EBITDA
Net Dvd Yld
(x)
Gearing
(%)
(TTM)
(%)
8
4.5
32.9
3.2
July 7, 2015
14
$ 141414
Singapore
Key catalysts and risks
Catalysts
Improved supply/demand balance and industry rerating
The depressed freight rates have been mainly caused by overcapacity in the
industry. However, with sentiments at such depressing levels, any good news
or signs that shows improvement in the supply-demand balance, such as a
slowdown in new ship orders or increase in demolition of old vessels, may
provide an uplift to freight rates.
Improvement in global trade led by China
A major factor that has put pressure on freight rates in recent months can be
attributed to the decline in China’s external trade. Chinese exports
unexpectedly fell 6.4% YoY in April, compared to a rise expected by consensus.
The drop follows the 15% YoY drop in exports in March, which has prompted
the Chinese government to cut interest rates. China has been the main driver
of containership demand this decade and a recovery in its exports/imports in
the next months may remove doubts over the health of China’s external trade.
Risks
Rise in bunker fuel prices
Bunker fuel prices are closely linked to oil prices and makes up around 40 to
70% of operating costs for container ships. A drastic rise in bunker fuel prices
will remove recent cost saving gains that shipping companies have been
enjoying.
Weakness in intra-Asian freight rates
China accounts for close to 35% of the world’s containership volume growth
since 2002, according to Clarkson Research Services. With China’s 1Q15
exports/imports lower by 10-15% YoY, the Shanghai Containerized Freight
Index dropped around 20% in April. The weakness in the Shanghai
Containerized Freight index may affect the freight rates of intra-Asian trade
routes that Samudera operates in. Another potential negative factor is the
movement of more and larger vessels into the intra-Asian routes that may
depress freight rates.
Increase in container shipping charter rates
Samudera charters in 42% of its fleet thus exposing the group to an increase in
charter rates. The group benefitted in FY14 on lower charter-in rates compared
to 2010-2011 when charter rates were almost double for smaller container
ships (~1,100 teu).
Accidents that may cause disruptions to services
In Jan-15, one of Samudera’s dry bulk carrier was involved in a collision with a
tanker. The dry bulk carrier was out of service for more than a month. The
repair and maintenance expenses related to the incident were covered by
insurance with a minor deductible amount of US$100,000. We note that this
incidents are rare and is not a major risk to the overall operations of the group.
July 7, 2015
15
$ 151515
Singapore
Summary of Financials
YE 31 Dec
INCOME STATEMENT (US$m)
Revenue
Cos t of s a l es
Gross Profit
Other opera ti ng i ncome/(expens es )
Sel l i ng a nd di s tri buti on
Admi n
Profit from Operations
Fi na nce i ncome/(expens es )
Sha re of JV res ul ts
Excepti ona l s /Inves tment i ncome
Profit before Tax
Income ta x
Non-control l i ng i nteres ts
PATMI
PATMI Norma l i zed
2013
391.2
(382.0)
9.2
7.4
(7.8)
(6.7)
2.1
(3.4)
1.3
0.0
(0.0)
(2.0)
(0.1)
(2.2)
(2.2)
2014
364.2
(332.5)
31.7
3.1
(7.6)
(6.1)
17.6
(2.4)
1.2
0.0
16.4
(1.9)
(0.2)
14.3
14.3
2015F
368.5
(333.5)
35.0
0.0
(7.7)
(6.3)
21.0
(2.2)
1.6
0.0
20.5
(2.4)
(0.0)
18.1
18.1
2016F
403.4
(367.1)
36.3
0.0
(8.5)
(6.9)
21.0
(1.5)
1.6
0.0
21.0
(2.5)
(0.0)
18.6
18.6
2017F
442.2
(402.4)
39.8
0.0
(9.3)
(7.5)
23.0
(1.1)
1.6
0.0
23.5
(2.7)
(0.0)
20.7
20.7
BALANCE SHEET (US$m)
Ca s h a nd ca s h equi va l ents
Tra de a nd other recei va bl es
Inventory
Other current a s s ets
Current Assets
Property, pl a nt a nd equi pment
Other non-current a s s ets
Non-current Assets
Total assets
Tra de a nd other pa ya bl es
Borrowi ngs (current)
Other current l i a bi l i ti es
Current Liabilities
Borrowi ngs (non-current)
Other non-current l i a bi l i ti es
Non-current liabilities
Sha rehol ders equi ty
Non-control l i ng i nteres ts
Total Equity
Total Liabilities and Equity
2013
35.2
70.6
5.4
12.2
123.5
326.0
7.4
333.4
456.9
53.3
23.7
2.1
79.0
137.0
0.5
137.6
235.5
4.8
240.2
456.9
2014
52.3
58.4
4.0
8.9
123.7
305.8
8.1
313.9
437.5
41.4
23.9
4.1
69.4
112.4
0.1
112.5
250.7
4.9
255.6
437.5
2015F
48.5
59.1
4.0
8.9
120.5
296.3
6.9
303.2
423.7
41.6
19.3
4.4
65.3
91.0
0.1
91.1
262.4
4.9
267.3
423.7
2016F
35.6
64.7
4.4
8.9
113.6
287.5
7.1
294.6
408.2
45.7
19.1
4.0
68.8
59.8
0.1
59.9
274.6
4.9
279.6
408.2
2017F
38.4
71.0
4.8
8.9
123.1
276.2
7.3
283.5
406.5
50.1
18.8
4.2
73.2
39.3
0.1
39.4
289.0
4.9
293.9
406.5
CASH FLOW STATEMENT (US$m)
Net i ncome before ta x
Depreci a ti on & non ca s h a djus tments
Cha nge i n Worki ng Ca pi ta l
Income Ta x Pa i d
Interes t Pa i d
CF from operating activities
Purcha s e/Di s pos a l of PPE
Other CFI
CF from investing activities
Di vi dends Pa i d
Debt Ra i s ed / (Repa i d)
Equi ty Ra i s ed / (Bought Ba ck)
Other Ca s h from Fi na nci ng
CF from financing activities
Net i ncrea s e i n ca s h & ca s h equi v.
FX effects
Begi nni ng Ca s h
Ending Cash
2013
(0.0)
30.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.1
(5.9)
9.5
3.6
(1.1)
(26.3)
0.0
5.4
(22.0)
11.5
(0.3)
16.4
35.2
2014
16.4
32.4
1.8
(1.5)
(2.7)
46.6
(9.5)
4.2
(5.3)
0.0
(23.6)
0.0
0.7
(23.0)
18.3
(0.1)
27.9
52.3
2015F
20.5
33.9
(0.6)
(2.1)
(2.2)
49.6
(14.6)
0.0
(14.6)
(12.7)
(26.0)
0.0
0.0
(38.7)
(3.8)
(0.1)
46.1
48.5
2016F
21.0
27.8
(1.8)
(2.9)
(1.5)
42.6
(17.6)
0.0
(17.6)
(6.4)
(31.5)
0.0
0.0
(37.9)
(13.0)
(0.1)
42.3
35.6
2017F
23.5
30.0
(2.2)
(2.5)
(1.1)
47.6
(17.6)
0.0
(17.6)
(6.4)
(20.7)
0.0
0.0
(27.1)
2.8
(0.1)
29.4
38.4
July 7, 2015
16
$ 161616
Singapore
Appendices
Senior Management
Masli Mulia
Executive Chairman
As Executive Cha i rma n, Ma s l i Mul i a l ea ds the Boa rd i n the overa l l s tra tegi c
di rection a nd bus i nes s growth of the Compa ny a nd i ts s ubs i di a ri es (the
“Group”). He i s member of the Nomi na ting Commi ttee of the Compa ny. He i s
a l s o the Pres i dent Di rector of PT. Sa mudera Indones i a Tbk (“Sa mudera
Indones i a ”), a ma jori ty s ha rehol der of the Compa ny. Ma s l i Mul i a joi ned
Sa mudera Indones i a i n 1971 a nd ha s hel d va ri ous pos i tions pri or to becomi ng
the Pres i dent Di rector i n 2010. He s erves a s a member of the Advi s ory Boa rd i n
the Indones i a n Na tiona l Shi powners ’ As s oci a tion (INSA). Formerl y, he wa s the
Cha i rma n of ASEAN Federa tion of Forwa rders As s oci a tion a nd the Indones i a n
Logi s tics a nd Frei ght Forwa rders As s oci a tion. Ma s l i Mul i a gra dua ted from the
Mercha nt Ma ri ne Aca demy, Ja ka rta, Indones i a i n 1970.
Asmari Herry Prayitno
Executive Director and CEO
As ma ri Herry, the Chi ef Executive Offi cer (“CEO”), i s res pons i bl e for the overa l l
ma na gement, s tra tegi c pl a nni ng a nd da y-toda y bus i nes s opera tions of the
Group. Pri or to hi s a ppoi ntment, he wa s the Chi ef Opera ting
Offi cer res pons i bl e for the overa l l opera tions of the Group. As ma ri Herry
joi ned Sa mudera Indones i a i n 1979 a nd ha s hel d va ri ous ma na geri a l
pos i tions pri or to hi s a ppoi ntment a s Executive Di rector of the
Compa ny i n 1997. He i s a l s o a Di rector of PT Sa mudera
Indones i a Tbk s i nce 2010. As ma ri Herry wa s a ppoi nted a s the Deputy
Cha i rma n of the Indones i a n Na tiona l Shi powners ’ As s oci a tion s i nce 2011. He
gra dua ted from the Mercha nt Ma ri ne Col l ege i n Indones i a a nd joi ned the Sea
Tra ns port Cours e a t AIM – Ma ni l a , Phi l i ppi nes .
Lim Kee Hee
Executive Director, Commercial
Li m Kee Hee i s res pons i bl e for the overa l l commerci a l a ctivi ties of the
Compa ny. Pri or to becomi ng Executive Di rector, Li m Kee Hee wa s the Seni or
Genera l Ma na ger of the Compa ny who i s res pons i bl e for the tra de a nd
ma rketing functions . He ha s over 20 yea rs of experi ence i n the s hi ppi ng
i ndus try where he ha d s erved i n va ri ous s eni or ma na gement pos i tions pri or
to joi ni ng the Compa ny. He hol ds a Ba chel or of Sci ence from the then
Uni vers i ty of Si nga pore a nd a Gra dua te Di pl oma i n Fi na nci a l Ma na gement
from the Si nga pore Ins titute of Ma na gement.
Hermawan Fridiana
Herman
Executive Director, Finance
Herma wa n wa s a ppoi nted a s the Executive Di rector, Fi na nce
i n 2010. He i s res pons i bl e for the overa l l fi na nce a nd a dmi ni s tra tive
functions of the Group. He joi ned Sa mudera Indones i a i n 1992
a s the Group Accountant a nd wa s s ubs equently pos ted to the
Compa ny a s the Genera l Ma na ger for Fi na nce a nd Admi ni s tra tion
pri or to hi s current a ppoi ntment. Herma wa n s tarted hi s ca reer wi th
va ri ous bus i nes s cons ul tants i n Indones i a before joi ni ng KPMG
Indones i a a s a n Audi tor i n 1989. He hol ds a Ba chel or of Economi cs
degree (ma jori ng i n Accountancy) from the Uni vers i ty of Indones i a .
July 7, 2015
17
$ 171717
Singapore
Appendices
Vessels
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Name of vessel
Northern Power
Si na r Sa ba ng
Si na r Sumba
Si na r Suba ng
Si na r Sa ngi r
Ka nwa y Ga l a xy
Ari s a ra
Si na r Bi tung
Vega Luna
Si na r Bi ma
Ita l i a n Expres s
CTP Fortune
Si nga pore Bri dge
Si na r Buton
Si na r Bra ni
Si na r Sol o
Si na r Ba ndung
Si na r Bi nta n
MCP Ams terda m
MCP Vi l l a ch
Bei Ha i
Si na r Jepa ra
Si na r Ji mba ra n
Si na r Ambon
Si na r Ja mbi
Si na r Dema k
Si na r Pa da ng
Si na r Pa nja ng
Tota l
Type
Conta i ner Shi ppi ng
Capacity
Flag
TEU
Li beri a
4,586.0
Si nga pore
1,740.0
Si nga pore
1,740.0
Pa na ma
1,708.0
Pa na ma
1,708.0
Pa na ma
1,613.0
Ma rs ha l l Is l a nds 1,551.0
Pa na ma
1,150.0
Li bera
1,118.0
Si nga pore
1,118.0
Gi bra l ta r
1,084.0
Indones i a
1,064.0
Pa na ma
1,064.0
Pa na ma
1,060.0
Pa na ma
1,060.0
Si nga pore
1,060.0
Si nga pore
1,054.0
Si nga pore
1,054.0
Cyprus
618.0
Cyprus
618.0
Hong Kong
610.0
Indones i a
378.0
Indones i a
378.0
Indones i a
287.0
Indones i a
265.0
Indones i a
265.0
Indones i a
241.0
Indones i a
241.0
30,433.0
Year build
2010
2008
2008
2008
2008
1997
1992
2007
2006
2008
2012
1998
1998
2008
2010
1999
2004
2002
2007
2008
2006
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
2005
Control
Cha rtered
Owned
Owned
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Owned
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Owned
Owned
Owned
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Owned
Owned
Owned
Owned
Owned
Owned
Owned
1
2
Oil Tanker
Si na r Jogya
Si na r Ema s
Oi l Ta nker
Oi l Ta nker
Indones i a
Indones i a
DWT
17,666.0
17,726.0
2001
2000
Owned
Owned
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Chemical Tanker
Si na r Agra
Si na r Bus a n
Si na r Bonta ng
Si na r La bua n
Si na r Johor
Si na r Bukom
Si na r Tokyo
Chemi ca l
Chemi ca l
Chemi ca l
Chemi ca l
Chemi ca l
Chemi ca l
Chemi ca l
Indones i a
Indones i a
Indones i a
Indones i a
Indones i a
Indones i a
Si nga pore
DWT
11,244.0
106,000.0
3,785.0
3,519.0
3,098.0
3,097.0
2,949.0
2006
2006
1992
1994
1991
1990
2004
Owned
Owned
Owned
Owned
Owned
Owned
Owned
10
11
Gas Tanker
LNG Ta ngguh Towuti
Ga s Ta nker
Ama na h
Ga s Ta nker
Si nga pore
Indones i a
CBM
145,700.0
1,560.0
2007
1981
Owned-25% s ta ke
Owned
12
13
14
15
16
Marine Offshore Support unit
LCT SMS Ta ngguh Offs hore
LCT SMS Ta ngguh Offs hore
Aqua ti c Cons erver Offs hore
Si na r Ha ndi l
Offs hore
Nurhi da ya h
Offs hore
Support Ves s elIndones i a
DWT
1,374.0
450.0
400.0
350.0
102.0
2006
2007
1995
2013
1996
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
Owned
Cha rtered
Cha rtered
17
18
Dry Bulk
Si na r Ka pua s
Si na r Kuta i
DWT
57,700.0
57,000.0
2011
2011
Owned
Owned
Ta nker
Ta nker
Ta nker
Ta nker
Ta nker
Ta nker
Ta nker
Dry Bul k Ca rri er
Dry Bul k Ca rri er
Si nga pore
Si nga pore
July 7, 2015
18
$ 181818
Singapore
Appendices
Samudera’s end to end services of container, bulk and offshore tankers
Samudera provides customers with efficient and reliable services of moving container or bulk cargo across the region.
Its container shipping runs out of the Singapore hub to regional ports. Its bulk carrier and tanker services are chartered
out based on time charter. Its other complementary business including its logistic network consists of inland transport,
warehousing, container depots and third party logistics. Samudera operates four container terminals in Indonesia.
Samudera Shipping
Samudera Logistics
Samudera Terminal
Samudera Agency

















International Container
Shipping
Domestic Container Shipping
Bulk Carrier, Offshore &
Tanker
Inland Transport
Warehouse
Container Depot
Third Party logistics
Project logistics
Container terminal
Multipurpose terminal
Domestic
International
General agents
Sub agents
Marketing Agents
Protecting Agents
Local Agents
Source: Company
July 7, 2015
19
$ 191919
Singapore
Appendices
Service network (as at 1 March 2015)
Region
Southeast Asia
Indian subcontinent
Far East
Country
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam
Myanmar
Cambodia
Philippines
India
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Korea
China
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Service
5 services
Jakarta, Surabaya, Semarang, Belawan and
Palembang
Port
Klang
Bangkok and Songkhla
Ho Chi Minh and North Vietnam
Yangon
Sihanoukville
Manila
Calcutta, Nhava Sheva, Pipavav, Madras
Chittagong
Colombo
Karachi
Incheon and Busan
Shanghai, Qingdao, Ningbo, Xiamen
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Sailing
frequencies
1-5/week
1-4/week
1-4/week
1-4/week
1-4/week
1-4/week
1-4/week
1-3/week
1-3/week
1-3/week
1-3/week
1/week
1/week
1/week
1/week
July 7, 2015
20
$ 202020
Singapore
Appendices
Peer comparison
Company
CONTAINER SHIPPING
AP Moeller-B
China Cosco-H
China Shipping-H
Nippon Yusen
Mitsui OSK Lines
Orient Overseas
Kawasaki Kisen
Wan Hai Lines
Evergreen Marine
Neptune Orient
Hyundai Merchant
Hanjin Shipping
Yang Ming Marine
SIMPLE AVERAGE
DRY BULK
China Cosco -H
China Shipping D
Nippon Yusen
Mitsui OSK Lines
Cosco Shipping-A
Kawasaki Kisen
Hyundai Merchant
Hanjin Shipping
D/S Norden
Pacific Basin
Pan Ocean Co
Korea Line Corp
Dryships Inc
Scorpio Bulkers
Navios Maritime
SIMPLE AVERAGE
TANKER
MISC Bhd
China Shipping D
National Shipping
Nippon Yusen
Mitsui OSK Lines
Teekay Corp
Qatar Gas Transp
Euronav Sa
Hyundai Merchant
Stolt-Nielsen
Tsakos Energy
SIMPLE AVERAGE
Bloomberg
Ticker
Price
(Lcl curr)
Mkt Cap
(S$m)
P/E (x)
(hist)
P/E (x)
(fwd)
P/B (x)
(MRQ)
ROE
(%)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
(TTM)
Net
Grng
(%)
Dvd Yld
(%)
MAERSKB DC
1919 HK
2866 HK
9101 JP
9104 JP
316 HK
9107 JP
2615 TT
2603 TT
NOL SP
011200 KS
117930 KS
2609 TT
11780.00
4.25
2.50
339.00
385.00
37.75
286.00
26.25
16.75
0.90
7190.00
5420.00
11.55
50068
16168
13358
6345
5112
4113
2957
2542
2543
2328
1760
1593
1512
14.2
96.0
21.8
12.1
10.9
11.2
10.0
8.7
13.2
16.3
22.0
8.2
28.4
16.0
9.3
8.8
6.5
8.5
9.7
11.2
55.3
9.8
11.7
11.8
1.0
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
1.5
0.9
1.0
2.0
1.4
1.0
0.9
14
1
4
6
6
6
6
19
7
(9)
13
(36)
7
8
4.5
29.4
8.6
15.7
9.7
6.1
7.7
11.3
15.2
60.6
10.9
14.2
11.6
21.2
106.4
60.3
88.1
117.9
63.0
11.4
90.9
225.7
505.2
664.5
164.0
69.9
2.5
2.4
1.8
2.2
1.7
7.6
0.6
2.7
1919 HK
1138 HK
9101 JP
9104 JP
600428 CH
9107 JP
011200 KS
117930 KS
DNORD DC
2343 HK
028670 KS
005880 KS
DRYS US
SALT US
NM US
4.25
5.06
339.00
385.00
10.84
286.00
7190.00
5420.00
170.40
2.41
3000.00
21300.00
0.59
1.68
3.64
16168
6792
6345
5112
3984
2957
1760
1593
1438
817
822
623
538
711
513
96.0
44.6
12.1
10.9
39.4
10.0
0.6
7.2
6.7
30.5
28.4
11.3
9.3
8.8
67.8
8.5
9.8
37.8
28.3
8.3
5.6
23.3
1.4
0.6
0.7
0.6
2.7
0.6
2.0
1.4
0.9
0.6
0.5
1.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
1.1
1
1
6
6
7
6
13
(36)
(25)
(25)
101
16
(2)
(14)
(8)
5
16.4
8.6
15.7
6.1
60.6
10.9
31.8
5.2
6.7
6.0
10.6
19.4
106.4
123.4
88.1
117.9
76.4
63.0
505.2
664.5
0.7
86.1
135.0
125.7
5.7
125.2
183.2
0.7
2.4
1.8
0.2
1.7
2.1
6.6
1.5
MISC MK
1138 HK
NSCSA AB
9101 JP
9104 JP
TK US
QGTS QD
EURN BB
011200 KS
SNI NO
TNP US
7.90
5.06
53.25
339.00
385.00
44.12
22.07
13.78
7190.00
137.50
9.47
12492
6792
7546
6345
5112
4302
4581
3274
1760
1476
1083
16.0
44.6
26.0
12.1
10.9
13.5
8.3
16.3
21.7
15.4
11.3
18.8
9.3
8.8
32.5
12.0
11.4
7.1
6.0
15.7
1.2
0.6
2.6
0.7
0.6
3.0
4.2
1.4
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.7
8
1
11
6
6
(6)
28
(4)
13
7
4
7
14.4
16.4
16.0
8.6
15.7
14.2
14.0
17.3
60.6
6.8
9.4
27.4
15.6
123.4
83.5
88.1
117.9
193.2
684.0
113.8
505.2
125.9
99.5
200.0
0.8
0.7
1.9
2.4
1.8
5.0
5.4
1.6
5.4
2.5
2.4
July 7, 2015
21
$ 212121
Singapore
Appendices
Peer performance
Current Price
(Lcl Currency)
SINGAPORE PLAYERS
SAMUDERA SHIP
FIRST SHIP LEASE
RICKMERS MARITIM
SINGAPORE SHIPPING
CONTAINER SHIPPING
AP Moeller-B
China Cosco-H
China Shipping-H
Nippon Yusen
Mitsui OSK Lines
Orient Overseas
Kawasaki Kisen
Wan Hai Lines
Evergreen Marine
Neptune Orient
Hyundai Merchant
Hanjin Shipping
Yang Ming Marine
SIMPLE AVERAGE
DRY BULK
China Cosco -H
China Shipping D
Nippon Yusen
Mitsui OSK Lines
Cosco Shipping-A
Kawasaki Kisen
Hyundai Merchant
Hanjin Shipping
D/S Norden
Pacific Basin
Pan Ocean Co
Korea Line Corp
Dryships Inc
Scorpio Bulkers
Navios Maritime
SIMPLE AVERAGE
Price change (%) - 6 months
Price change (%) - 1 year
0.28
0.17
0.27
0.34
20.15
68.93
-7.02
19.64
98.84
93.33
-10.17
36.73
11780.00
4.25
2.50
339.00
385.00
37.75
286.00
26.25
16.75
0.90
7190.00
5420.00
11.55
10.17
3.66
-1.19
1.19
8.76
-16.67
-8.63
-7.08
-24.55
7.19
-29.19
-6.39
-30.63
-3.81
-4.90
35.35
22.55
12.25
-0.77
-4.67
31.19
71.57
1.52
-5.79
-18.12
-10.12
-4.94
18.23
4.25
5.06
339.00
385.00
10.84
286.00
7190.00
5420.00
170.40
2.41
3000.00
21300.00
0.59
1.68
3.64
3.66
-9.80
1.19
8.76
35.35
6.08
12.25
-0.77
-8.63
-29.19
-6.39
27.64
-26.30
13.21
-6.37
-43.02
-13.85
-10.12
0.88
31.19
-18.12
-10.12
-12.84
-50.10
-5.06
-6.99
-81.71
-81.42
-63.31
21.70
July 7, 2015
22
$ 222222
KGI’s Ratings
Disclaimer
Singapore
Rating
Definition
KGI Fraser Research’s recommendations are based on an Absolute Return rating system.
BUY
>10% total return over the next 12 months
HOLD
-10% to +10% total return over the next 12 months
SELL
<-10% total return over the next 12 months
This report is provided for information only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in securities or to enter
into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such securities. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation
and the particular needs of any recipient hereof. You should independently evaluate particular investments
and consult an independent financial adviser before dealing in any securities mentioned in this report.
This report is confidential. This report may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed and/or redistributed in whole or in part by any recipient of this report to any other person without the prior written
consent of KGI Fraser. This report is not intended for distribution and/or redistribution, publication to or use
by any person in any jurisdiction outside Singapore or any other jurisdiction as KGI Fraser may determine in its
absolute discretion, where the distribution, publication or use of this report would be contrary to applicable
law or would subject KGI Fraser and its connected persons (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter
110 of Singapore) to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.
The information or views in the report (“Information”) has been obtained or derived from sources believed by
KGI Fraser to be reliable. However, KGI Fraser makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of
such sources or the Information and KGI Fraser accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising
from the use of or reliance on the Information. KGI Fraser and its connected persons may have issued other
reports expressing views different from the Information and all views expressed in all reports of KGI Fraser and
its connected persons are subject to change without notice. KGI Fraser reserves the right to act upon or use
the Information at any time, including before its publication herein.
Except as otherwise indicated below, (1) KGI Fraser, its connected persons and its officers, employees and
representatives may, to the extent permitted by law, transact with, perform or provide broking, underwriting,
corporate finance-related or other services for or solicit business from, the subject corporation(s) referred to
in this report; (2) KGI Fraser, its connected persons and its officers, employees and representatives may also,
to the extent permitted by law, transact with, perform or provide broking or other services for or solicit business from, other persons in respect of dealings in the securities referred to in this report or other investments
related thereto; and (3) the officers, employees and representatives of KGI Fraser may also serve on the board
of directors or in trustee positions with the subject corporation(s) referred to in this report. (All of the foregoing is hereafter referred to as the “Subject Business”.)
However, as of the date of this report, neither KGI Fraser nor its representative(s) who produced this report
(each a “research analyst”), has any proprietary position or material interest in, and KGI Fraser does not make
any market in, the securities which are recommended in this report.
Each research analyst of KGI Fraser who produced this report hereby certifies that (1) the views expressed in
this report accurately reflect his/her personal views about all of the subject corporation(s) and securities in
this report; (2) the report was produced independently by him/her; (3) he/she does not carry out, whether for
himself/herself or on behalf of KGI Fraser or any other person, any of the Subject Business involving any of the
subject corporation(s) or securities referred to in this report; and (4) he/she has not received and will not receive any compensation that is directly or indirectly related or linked to the recommendations or views expressed in this report or to any sales, trading, dealing or corporate finance advisory services or transaction in
respect of the securities in this report. However, the compensation received by each such research analyst is
based upon various factors, including KGI Fraser’s total revenues, a portion of which are generated from KGI
Fraser’s business of dealing in securities.
Copyright 2015. KGI Fraser Securities Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved.
July 7, 2015
$

Samudera Shipping Line - KGI Fraser Securities

Transcription

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