Paulo Nobre

Paulo Nobre, V. B. Capistrano, M. Baptista Jr., E. Giarolla, M. Bottino, D. S. Moreira, S. N. Figueroa, D. Alvin,
P. Kubota, J. P. Bonatti, E. Ramirez, B. Antunes, T. Tarasova, F. Pesquero, M. H. Costa, G. Sampaio, M.
Cardoso, C. Augusto Jr, M. Sanches, H. C. Soares, F. Casagrande, F. Odorizi, C. Fonseca, A. A. de Castro, A.
D. Nobre, A. Cuartas, A. Lanfer, J. Pendharkar, J. Silva, R. Tedeschi, and C. A. Nobre
National Institute for Space Research – INPE
PFPMCG Meeting, São Paulo, 18 February 2016
The Challenge:
• To build an Earth System Model in Brazil, from state of
the art component models in the nation and abroad:
1. To incorporate expert knowledge about ocean-iceatmosphere-biosphere interactions of relevance to
Brazil;
2. To provide the scientific foundations of global climate
change scenarios for mitigation and adaptation
policies to climate change in Brazil;
3. To contribute to form a new generation of modelingcapable earth system scientists in the nation.
From Weather Forecasting
to Global Climate Change Scenarios
Extreme Events Hit Brazil
T062L28
Surface Temperature Trend in Brazil
T126L42
T213L64
T666L96
Super Typhoon Haiyan 2014
24 h FCST CPTEC-AGCM (T666L64)
CPTEC T666L64 24h FCST
Courtesy: Silvio N. Figueroa, INPE/CPTEC
TRMM RAINFALL OBS
BESM/CPTEC ENSO
FORECAST
OND 2015 SST FCST
OND 2015 SST
IC: Sept/2015
ersst
Courtesy: Carlos R. de Sousa, Rede CLIMA
Air Temperature Change
Abrupt4xCO2 - piControl
GFDL/CM 2.1
NCAR/CCSM 4
MOHC/HadGEM2-ES
Source: Capistrano et al (2015) in preparation
INPE/BESM 2.5
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
(i) full use of CPTEC’s experience and sub-models
(ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers
abroad
–
Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the
structuring building-block
Use GFDL/FMS coupler to add components:
–
•
•
•
•
Dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle;
Continental hydrology-ocean coupling;
Ocean carbon cycle;
Enhanced sea ice;
Component Models
ATMOS CHEMISTRY (HAMMOZ- MPI)
CO2
Trace Gases
Particles
Heat
H2O
ATMOSPHERE (INPE/CPTEC)
2080-2099 A1B
2080-2099 A1B
CO2
LAND (INLAND – INPE/CCST)
Hydrology
FMS
COUPLER
Land Use
OCEAN (MOM5 – NOAA/GFDL)
RIVER
ICE
BioChemistr
y
Predictabilit
y
Fire
RIVERS
BESM Runtime Environmet
BESM2.5 300 years 2007-2300 Control run
softwares
Fortran
Tupã
BESM Automated Run Suite
GrADS
besm.ccst.inpe.br
restrito.ccst.inpe.br
Courtesy: Bianca Antunes, Manoel Baptista
MCTI/INPE-REDE CLIMA-FAPESP
Supercomputer for Climate Change
Research
CRAY XE6
NEC SX6
NEC SX4
NEC SX3
15 TFlops sustained
100 Pbytes disk/tape storage
NEC SX-6
Courtesy: J. P. Bonatti, INPE/CPTEC
Brazil Participation on the
Earth System Grid Federation - ESGF
Brazil
Courtesy: Wander Mendes, INPE/BESM
Amazon Deforestation:
Increased El Niño Conditions
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
Statistically significant departures are shaded
Source: Nobre et al. (2009)
Enhanced Predictability
Rainfall over Cold Waters
OBSERVATIONS
BESM-OA2.3
Source: Nobre et al. (2012)
AGCM, Obs SST
AGCM, BESM SST
Ocean Carbon Cycle
Salinity
Source: De Farias et al (2012)
pCO2
BESM AMAZON RAINFALL
GPCP
BESM 2.3
BESM 2.3.1
BESM UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ERA interim REANALISYS
Bottino and Nobre (2016) to be Submitted
BESM 2.3
BESM 2.3.1
Atlantic ITCZ simulations
V at 10 m (m/s): 5N 30W +/- 2
ERAI
CTRL (bias = -4.38; rmse = 5.11)
ITCZ Meridional Migration
Bottino and Nobre (2016) to be Submitted
NCCS (bias = -1.72; rmse = 2.95)
Atlantic Meridional Mode
SST, Taux, Tauy Joint EOF1
ERSSTv4 (9.3%)
Courtesy: S. Veiga, INPE/PGMET
BESM2.5 historical run (11.4%)
Arctic Ice
in CMIP5 Models
Courtesy: Fernanda Casagrande, INPE/PGCCST
BESM2.5 historical run
Sea Surface Temperature
Equilibrium Climate Sensibility
Courtesy: V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM
CMIP5 INTERCOPARISONS
Ensemble
SST
PRECIP
Courtesy: Renata Tedeschi, BESM/INPE
BESM2-5
GLOBAL MEANl
BESM2.5 CMIP5
Runs 1850-2100
Air Temperature at 2m
Courtesy: V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM
BESM’s AMOC Strength
4xCO2 Simulation
Courtesy: Sandro Veiga, PGCCST/INPE
BESM Extreme Events in
a Changed Climate
Annual Mean Precipitation Variation
DECREASE
INCREASE
Source: Pesquero, Nobre et al (TBS)
BESM Extreme Events in
a Changed Climate
Consecutive Dry Days
Extreme Precipitation Days
Increase
Source: Pesquero, Nobre et al (TBS)
Control
PBL PARAMETERIZATION
q2m
T2m
Jimenez SL
U10m
Normalized root-mean-square-error (NRMSE).
u10m T2m
q2m
Control
7.90
0.30
2.88
Jimenez SL
1.19
0.17
4.30
Courtesy V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM
NRMSE over the ocean.
u10m T2m
q2m
Control
15.57 0.40
6.45
Jimenez SL
1.22
3.79
0.17
INLAND: Integrated Model
of Land Surface Processes
Vegetation Types
INLAND 2 (current version)
•
•
•
•
Biomass Density
•
•
•
•
•
Courtesy.: Manoel Cardoso, INPE/CCST
Subgrid tiling
Fires (ignition, combustion, spreading,
emissions)
Croplands representation (Sugarcane,
Wheat, Soybean and Maize)
River discharge and seasonally flooded
areas
River and lake evaporation
Anthropogenic land use (deforestation)
Specific representation of South
American ecosystems
Soil fertility, enhanced ecophysiology
Parameter optimization (Optis)
INLAND coupling
to CM2.1/NOAA-GFDL
REANALYSIS LAD-CM2.1 INLAND-CM2.1
REANALYSIS LAD-CM2.1 INLAND-CM2.1
Courtesy.:Demerval Soares, BESM/INPE
Temp. (oC)
AMAZON Mean TEMPERATURE
Temp. (oC)
Global Mean TEMPERATURE
Fonte: Demerval S.
Moreira
Temp BIAS (oC) (CM2.1/GFDL)
Temp BIAS
(CM2.1 INLAND Over the Amazon)
High Resolution
Ocean Modeling
BESM/MOM4p1
COLA/MOM
1/4
Courtesy: Prof. J. Shukla; E. Giarolla
Ocean Biogeochemistry
Modelo de biogeoquímica oceânica: Tracers of Ocean Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton
(TOPAZ) (Dunne et al. 2010; Dunne et al. 2013), desenvolvido pelo GFDL/NOAA;
Concentração de Nitrato
Composto por 30 traçadores que
descrevem os ciclos do carbono,
nitrogênio, fósforo, alcalinidade,
sílica, ferro, oxigênio e material
litogênico;
•
•
TOPAZ-MOM5/BESM
Validação:
- Avaliação da representação
das descargas fluviais
- Avaliação da representação
dos fluxos de carbono entre
oceano e atmosfera
Courtesy Helena Soares BESM/INPE
Carbono Inorgânico Dissolvido
Surface Waves Coupling
Ocean Waves Energy Flux Climatology
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/
Courtesy Andre Lanfer, INPE/CPTEC
BESM PROJECT
Production
Summer Schools
FAPESP
School
on
Global
Climate
Modeling
October
2011,
Ubatuba/SP.
Professors: Dr. C. A. Nobre, MCTI; Dr. P. Nobre, INPE; Dr. G. Brasseur, Max Plank Institute –
Alemanha; Dr. A. D. Nobre, INPE; Dr. J. Carton, University of Maryland – EUA; Dr. L. Drude,
UFC; Dr. M. Coe, Woods Hole Research Center – EUA; Dr. A. V. Krusche,-USP; Dr. P. N.
Vinaychandran, IISc–India; Dr. C. Gnanaseelan, IITM – India.
FAPESP Advanced Lectures on the Physical Processes in the
Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM): Cloud Microphysics
February
2014,
Cachoeira
Paulista,
SP.
Professors: Dr. H. Morrison – NCAR, USA; Dr. S. N. Figueroa – INPE; Dra. R. I. Albrecht – INPE;
Dr. G. P. Almeida –UFC.
FAPESP Advanced Lectures on the Physical Processes in the
Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM): Planetary Boundary layer
and
Turbulence
Parameterization
2011 - Ubatuba/SP
March
2014,
Cachoeira
Paulista,
SP.
Professors: Dr. S. Park, NCAR- USA; Dr. S. N. Figueroa - INPE; Dr. O. Moraes – MCTI; Dr. O.
Acevedo – UFSM; Dr. F. Denardim – UFRS.
FAPESP School on Global Climate Modeling Coupled Data
Assimilation
27
July
2015,
Cachoeira
Paulista,
SP.
Professor Dr. S. LAKSHMIVARAHAN - School of Computer Science University of Oklahoma.
FAPESP School of cloud resolving models for development and
improvement of moist physical parameterizations
November
2015,
Cachoeira
Paulista,
SP.
Professor: Marat Khairoutdinov - at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony
Brook University.
2015 - Cachoeira Paulista/SP
Participating Institutions
• Coordination: INPE
• Atmosphere:
– INPE/CPTEC, USP, UFSM, UFCG, NCAR
• Ocean:
– INPE/CPTEC, NOAA/GFDL, NASA/GISS
• Surface:
– INPE/CCST, USP, UFV, UFSM, WHRC, EMBRAPA
• Chemistry:
– INPE, IITM, NCAR, GFDL
What is the Brazilian contribution to the
knowledge of global climate change and
especially climate change in Brazil?
• A good representation of precipitation/convection
in the Amazonia and SACZ regions is important to a
good global climate representation. They are
sources of humidity (Amazonia) and Rossby waves
(SACZ).
• The majority of global models, although
representing the general features of South America,
presents deficiencies in this representation.
Concluding
Remarks
• BESM-OA fully coupled global model has been
completed, allowing Brazil to inaugurate its
participation in the CMIP5 global climate change
model intercomparison project.
• Next steps: Developing BESM into a Full ESM,
with dynamical vegetation, continental hydrology
and atmospheric chemistry, toward CMIP6:
– High Resolution Earth System Scenarios
– Climate variability and extreme events research
– Paleoclimate Studies
Science & Development Team
ATMOSPHERE
OCEAN
SURFACE
Silvio N. Figueroa
José P. Bonatti
Paulo Kubota
Enver Ramirez
José F. Pesquero
Josiane Silva
Renata Tedeschi
Paulo Nobre
Vinícius B. Capistrano
Emanuel Giarolla
Helena Soares
Andre Lanfer
Raquel Leite Mello
Gilvan Sampaio
Manoel Cardoso
Celso Randow
Jorge Bustamante
Marcos Sanches
Adriana Luz
Antono. D. Nobre
Carlos Guimarães Jr.
Raphael Pousa
Etienne Tourigny
Marcos Costa (UFV)
Débora Roberti (UFSM)
Andrea Castanho (UECE)
Michael Coe (WHRC)
AEROSOLS &
CHEMISTRY
Débora Alvim
Jayant Pendharkar
Tatiana Tarasova
Project
Management
Carlos A. Nobre (PI)
Paulo Nobre (Coordinator)
Manuel Baptista
Bianca Antunes
Felipe Odorizi
How to:
• BESM Global Climate Change Scenarios:
– http://besm.ccst.inpe.br
• Contact BESM Development Team:
– [email protected]
• BESM climate change scenarios will be
available via ESGF in the (near) future.
Foto: cortesia de Antonio Nobre
Obrigado!