The Weather and Climate Authority

Transcription

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(OCTOBER 2016 – MARCH 2017)
Prepared by:
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)
PAGASA-DOST, Quezon City
Updated: 22 September 2016
CONTENTS:
• Global Advisories and Recent Condition
• Climate Outlook (OCTOBER 2016 – MARCH 2017)
• Summary
Recent conditions
September 19, 2016
GLOBAL
ADVISORIES
INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS
SUMMARY
CPC/ International Research •
Institute (IRI)
•
As of : 15 Sep 2016
Bureau of Meteorology
(BOM)-Australia
As of : 13 Sep 2016
•
•
Tokyo Climate Center/JMA Japan
As of: 9 Sep 2016
APEC Climate Center,
Busan, S. Korea
As of : 25 Aug 2016
•
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.
Currently, the Nino3.4 SST anomalies are at the level of
minimal La Niña; However, the collection of the latest model
predictions suggest that this scenario is about as likely to
happen as not to happen, with probabilities just over 50%.
Although some La Niña–like patterns are present, there
remains limited connection between the atmosphere and
ocean, and hence La Niña thresholds are yet to be met.
A La Niña WATCH remains in place as some climate models
indicate a late and weak La Niña is possible.
It is considered that La Niña conditions are present in the
equatorial Pacific (based from SSTA averaged over NINO.3 (5°N-5°S,
150°W-90°W).
•
It is likely that La Niña conditions will persist through boreal
winter (70%).
•
Latest model forecasts for September 2016 to February 2017
(SONDJF) indicates the ENSO state to be neutral to weak LaNina.
The forecasts for the whole period show positive temperature
anomalies to prevail over the globe, with highly probable
above normal rainfall over the maritime continent.
•
PAGASA : Cool ENSO-neutral conditions; La Nina Watch continues
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
As of 08 September 2016
•
ENSO-neutral conditions are slightly favored
(between 55-60%) during the upcoming
Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17
As of Sep 15 2016
Around 50-55% probability for La Niña
to develop by SON to DJF 2016/17.
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño
3.4 SST Model Outlook
As of 15 September 2016
58% of these models predicts
La Niña while 42% of these
models predict ENSO-neutral
conditions
Figure provided by the International Research Institute
(IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Sept. 2016).
While 14/24 models indicate some further cooling may
occur, most suggest a borderline La Niña still possible.
Updated: 15 September 2016
PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status is
Updated: 22 SEPTEMBER 2016
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
September 2016 Rainfall
September Forecast
(mm)
Actual as of September 20
(mm)
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(OCTOBER 2016 – MARCH 2017)
Updated:
SEP. 22, 2016
About our Rainfall Maps…
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE
COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD
(OCT – MAR 2016/17)
• Southwest monsoon
• Thunderstorms
• Inter tropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ)
• Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)
• Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA)
• Tropical Cyclones
• Transition towards Northeast
(NE) monsoon (OCTOBER)
• Tail end of cold front
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
October 2016
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
November 2016
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
December 2016
Forecast (mm)
check NIR, western mindoro
% Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
January 2017
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
February 2017
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
February 2017
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
Normal (mm)
(1981-2010)
March 2017
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
Monthly
Rainfall
Forecast
Rainfall Condition (based
on recent conditions):
OCT. 2016 – MARCH
2017 -
How certain/uncertain that the forecast is going to happen?
PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL FORECAST
OCT
2016
JAN
2017
NOV
2016
DEC
2016
FEB
2017
MAR
2017
FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (OCTOBER 2016 -MARCH 2017) as of September 20, 2016
PROVINCE
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA
BENGUET
IFUGAO
KALINGA
APAYAO
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE
ILOCOS SUR
LA UNION
PANGASINAN
REGION II
BATANES
CAGAYAN
ISABELA
NUEVA VIZCAYA
QUIRINO
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN
BULACAN
NUEVA ECIJA
PAMPANGA
TARLAC
ZAMBALES
AURORA
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS
CAVITE
LAGUNA
RIZAL
QUEZON
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
ORIENTAL MINDORO
ROMBLON
PALAWAN
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
MASBATE
SORSOGON
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
73.4
85.6
104.5
103.3
114.0
93.9
70.2
86.6
110.3
96.6
114.1
92.5
114.1
111.2
93.4
101.0
108.7
102.4
64.7
64.2
70.5
80.2
85.6
75.6
41.3
56.5
86.2
77.4
89.6
66.8
98.5
127.3
132.4
110.0
74.2
123.8
77.6
81.0
95.9
106.0
103.3
65.7
95.1
100.1
88.4
116.7
119.8
113.7
65.6
57.5
82.3
49.6
56.1
42.9
72.9
54.5
47.9
76.9
101.9
68.0
119.1
117.4
118.9
110.1
130.3
115.2
113.7
117.1
106.6
121.2
90.3
104.2
105.4
103.6
94.3
97.9
81.4
84.5
63.8
94.1
97.0
95.5
104.2
88.4
115.5
110.4
79.9
112.4
122.6
124.2
137.9
125.4
134.2
137.3
122.4
116.2
139.0
130.2
132.0
111.3
136.6
110.6
109.4
114.9
119.5
132.4
129.8
120.1
127.0
119.2
106.5
64.6
47.3
66.3
48.5
44.7
61.4
100.1
68.2
75.1
79.0
88.0
70.1
54.6
112.9
91.5
99.7
88.6
85.5
75.6
79.8
112.6
124.6
129.8
137.2
42.2
77.1
105.0
112.4
121.8
129.4
121.8
134.2
139.6
138.0
134.5
135.7
125.3
126.2
142.7
131.7
136.7
122.5
71.6
52.4
79.0
60.8
100.0
106.7
77.0
101.1
88.4
110.3
111.4
90.6
109.0
112.7
110.2
127.7
116.4
119.8
117.3
99.1
131.3
145.9
133.1
133.2
135.7
121.9
120.2
117.8
110.8
137.4
105.2
82.4
88.8
108.1
107.9
106.9
106.4
117.9
109.1
92.2
120.8
106.5
107.5
152.1
97.4
122.4
125.9
115.1
102.4
132.9
112.1
123.8
121.1
114.2
118.8
128.7
121.5
109.5
136.5
122.4
103.5
132.1
115.9
121.6
107.4
113.8
117.0
116.9
112.1
93.4
108.2
99.4
108.5
114.4
108.7
141.8
120.7
134.3
133.9
108.7
136.3
FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (OCTOBER 2016 -MARCH 2017) as of September 20, 2016
PROVINCE
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NIR (NEGROS ISLAND REGION)
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
BOHOL
CEBU
SIQUIJOR
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON
CAMIGUIN
LANAO DEL NORTE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
COMPOSTELA VALLEY
DAVAO
DAVAO DEL SUR
DAVAO ORIENTAL
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
AGUSAN DEL SUR
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
ARMM
BASILAN
MAGUINDANAO
LANAO DEL SUR
SULU
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
109.8
106.0
114.8
123.0
114.3
136.1
154.3
139.3
132.6
138.6
114.9
123.8
120.7
130.8
129.6
110.1
101.4
109.4
107.8
100.0
121.1
103.2
123.9
146.4
131.9
124.0
108.0
112.1
115.5
110.3
111.5
114.4
134.8
138.0
132.2
122.2
107.4
112.0
141.0
124.8
106.8
104.2
108.3
108.3
110.6
136.4
139.7
124.4
113.4
117.4
114.4
120.0
111.2
97.9
139.1
131.6
136.4
140.2
106.8
136.3
127.4
112.7
119.8
108.1
109.1
113.1
126.1
123.8
135.2
112.5
120.2
142.5
127.4
125.2
122.2
121.2
127.2
117.5
116.0
120.0
120.6
110.9
124.2
123.8
119.1
123.4
119.6
116.2
125.3
135.7
144.0
100.3
136.8
129.7
134.2
118.3
96.6
95.1
99.6
118.7
120.2
121.7
128.5
127.4
133.4
119.2
119.9
121.8
99.5
114.2
99.4
100.0
107.3
107.5
92.3
103.9
95.2
89.4
98.6
124.2
145.8
133.1
123.3
131.7
122.0
107.3
111.3
110.5
119.0
107.2
112.8
96.6
112.4
104.4
122.1
125.9
125.1
120.3
126.6
114.7
141.8
115.2
102.0
131.6
84.8
85.7
91.6
87.6
114.5
114.2
112.5
114.3
114.3
115.9
114.3
109.4
101.1
108.6
108.7
101.1
128.1
128.1
122.7
127.5
105.1
98.5
114.6
112.3
91.4
76.7
98.9
77.4
110.8
116.0
115.0
108.2
122.0
112.6
119.6
120.4
104.6
111.9
103.6
102.9
123.3
112.9
128.4
116.0
129.8
115.2
131.7
128.3
105.6
103.9
97.1
107.7
113.8
124.9
112.3
120.0
108.5
112.8
107.8
104.2
109.3
106.8
115.8
108.4
127.8
129.2
119.1
128.1
125.7
110.8
119.3
110.3
91.7
71.1
96.5
95.6
126.4
117.2
132.5
122.2
123.1
114.7
109.4
137.2
126.7
109.3
101.4
120.2
115.1
114.7
124.0
115.6
169.8
125.7
120.6
189.4
PROVINCE
MIN
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA
108.5
317.9
152.8
21.2
211.3
58.7
5.1
135.7
30.4
6.0
43.3
14.6
0.0
36.6
7.0
0.0
6.4
0.8
BENGUET
224.0
297.8
270.5
62.2
95.6
77.4
20.7
29.0
25.1
11.9
20.8
16.9
7.6
11.7
9.6
16.9
57.6
41.9
IFUGAO
256.6
317.2
284.1
88.7
238.3
172.5
24.7
135.9
81.8
15.7
44.4
31.4
7.8
56.9
32.3
0.0
35.8
9.3
KALINGA
189.0
325.9
287.0
75.3
224.4
185.1
30.3
137.1
107.9
16.9
41.6
31.6
7.5
38.8
27.2
0.0
13.0
0.4
APAYAO
202.0
474.6
362.6
120.8
482.2
308.6
54.6
284.1
170.1
21.0
105.0
60.7
14.8
72.0
44.3
0.0
16.8
4.2
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
184.4
324.4
278.3
55.7
218.0
146.7
21.1
131.1
72.0
13.9
42.0
27.8
6.4
43.0
21.3
0.0
19.4
3.1
ILOCOS NORTE
99.2
323.6
144.4
25.7
315.6
85.1
0.0
178.0
26.1
7.1
76.2
23.3
1.4
45.3
8.1
0.0
6.1
2.2
ILOCOS SUR
106.2
255.6
156.1
20.0
71.0
37.1
5.0
25.6
14.7
4.3
18.4
9.7
1.5
10.5
4.3
0.0
33.9
9.4
LA UNION
193.8
256.3
228.2
45.7
70.7
62.8
17.1
25.8
22.3
10.4
18.6
15.1
6.2
11.7
10.1
16.2
45.3
29.8
PANGASINAN
182.1
277.6
219.3
53.4
82.5
63.4
15.8
32.5
21.0
4.8
18.6
7.8
4.8
9.6
6.5
0.0
48.7
15.9
REGION I
REGION II
BATANES
241.7
354.1
307.2
193.7
294.4
253.2
100.0
125.3
112.8
120.4
144.0
133.2
72.1
86.5
80.8
61.5
78.3
69.0
CAGAYAN
260.9
439.6
322.8
189.0
482.0
296.2
105.6
283.2
156.7
18.8
148.6
48.3
23.5
86.2
41.2
0.0
108.6
41.7
ISABELA
255.7
628.1
359.6
191.4
491.3
323.2
106.9
415.2
200.1
19.0
175.5
59.7
24.4
165.2
67.1
0.0
242.5
96.2
NUEVA VIZCAYA
229.5
413.3
291.2
70.3
240.2
137.8
27.3
140.1
63.3
16.4
79.7
30.0
7.5
98.4
30.7
9.6
148.0
58.4
QUIRINO
266.9
598.4
408.2
180.1
491.3
299.1
90.2
377.4
179.5
38.2
160.2
79.5
46.7
151.2
92.4
23.9
192.7
115.9
BATAAN
252.7
324.1
295.2
85.1
146.3
106.2
28.6
65.1
42.4
9.0
20.3
14.4
6.4
10.5
7.7
4.1
48.8
18.1
BULACAN
241.7
405.3
303.3
110.9
275.8
164.0
48.7
180.1
87.4
11.2
49.4
22.5
5.6
51.5
15.1
8.0
115.1
47.8
NUEVA ECIJA
189.5
401.6
277.2
57.2
214.1
106.5
20.0
126.0
54.7
4.8
47.9
14.8
5.1
66.9
16.6
0.0
132.7
42.1
PAMPANGA
238.4
280.6
255.1
85.6
129.1
100.9
31.1
57.3
40.2
11.4
17.9
15.8
7.1
13.3
11.3
0.0
22.3
4.0
TARLAC
181.2
277.5
232.8
55.0
95.5
71.3
18.2
43.6
29.6
5.4
12.9
8.6
5.4
12.5
8.3
0.0
14.2
2.3
ZAMBALES
188.1
329.0
260.3
50.9
91.3
71.7
21.2
33.3
24.8
5.2
14.1
7.5
3.9
11.1
6.0
1.8
16.9
9.8
AURORA
326.4
673.5
505.4
157.2
557.4
362.4
95.3
472.0
260.5
31.2
225.9
124.5
43.6
197.9
128.5
101.3
283.6
188.2
244.9
317.6
279.5
133.8
182.2
151.1
72.9
102.6
83.6
20.4
26.1
21.6
9.1
14.1
10.6
0.0
49.8
21.4
BATANGAS
186.8
356.4
234.5
146.2
323.0
210.7
65.0
249.4
126.1
21.2
89.0
42.1
9.6
59.9
25.7
0.0
216.9
133.1
CAVITE
203.1
271.6
237.2
131.4
192.4
155.1
65.9
117.4
85.8
21.1
31.1
24.7
9.1
15.2
11.1
0.0
137.0
43.2
LAGUNA
234.8
610.3
374.4
141.7
537.7
293.5
82.6
423.4
205.8
20.9
139.0
69.2
9.7
98.6
39.1
0.0
128.0
59.9
RIZAL
279.9
470.2
347.4
156.9
343.8
224.0
88.1
255.2
137.4
21.1
83.1
39.0
10.8
62.8
23.0
18.8
113.0
67.0
QUEZON
260.1
684.1
502.1
236.0
640.0
447.6
142.8
660.7
415.6
33.4
254.1
153.0
35.2
189.6
108.0
74.9
284.2
146.8
METRO MANILA
MARINDUQUE
268.3
387.9
323.3
290.2
390.7
326.0
237.1
359.0
290.4
105.8
142.0
125.9
64.6
92.0
76.6
70.0
109.6
90.5
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
236.7
362.1
287.9
132.4
268.5
201.8
49.9
188.7
102.0
15.8
82.9
38.9
8.5
70.9
28.1
12.1
152.2
55.1
ORIENTAL MINDORO
242.3
362.6
310.1
196.7
283.6
248.0
84.2
204.7
159.4
31.3
85.4
68.6
16.7
73.6
51.4
19.0
151.6
45.3
ROMBLON
278.2
357.1
334.6
277.5
357.9
326.4
170.7
245.2
205.3
90.9
157.5
123.3
47.3
88.0
65.7
51.0
101.7
86.5
PALAWAN
129.3
311.5
190.3
160.4
245.0
210.6
61.2
308.0
142.3
12.9
210.5
64.3
4.2
87.2
22.2
0.0
80.7
35.5
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY
294.2
433.0
357.9
327.9
657.9
447.1
330.8
586.9
432.6
169.3
351.6
238.8
94.5
283.3
156.1
103.8
297.8
211.3
CAMARINES NORTE
393.5
594.0
519.8
372.2
649.6
553.0
454.2
791.0
636.0
169.4
258.9
224.5
100.7
170.1
148.0
99.2
245.3
179.8
CAMARINES SUR
306.9
481.8
356.5
319.1
506.3
416.7
349.3
599.6
453.8
164.4
251.3
208.9
89.8
195.6
136.5
60.3
190.3
114.9
CATANDUANES
312.8
411.2
359.8
462.0
630.7
533.4
434.9
515.2
478.9
256.6
323.1
287.4
184.2
224.6
202.2
161.3
212.5
180.7
MASBATE
271.3
325.9
296.0
282.7
386.4
317.1
256.6
379.2
316.3
162.2
265.5
207.4
78.7
148.6
113.5
16.1
176.3
81.9
SORSOGON
276.2
409.6
315.2
373.6
605.0
469.1
388.8
559.6
457.8
191.7
329.2
272.8
117.9
281.5
197.5
186.4
300.1
270.4
PROVINCE
MIN
OCTOBER
MAX MEAN
MIN
NOVEMBER
MAX MEAN
MIN
DECEMBER
MAX MEAN
MIN
JANUARY
MAX MEAN
MIN
FEBRUARY
MAX MEAN
MIN
MARCH
MAX MEAN
AKLAN
281.0
388.4
352.0
325.9
422.0
391.9
164.2
273.2
243.0
81.7
143.0
124.4
50.6
113.3
88.2
98.6
157.6
ANTIQUE
254.0
387.3
292.0
214.3
415.3
277.0
92.8
257.5
133.6
37.8
132.9
59.5
18.1
91.1
35.8
28.4
139.8
139.5
93.2
CAPIZ
239.2
358.1
315.0
290.9
400.3
348.5
151.2
261.8
229.1
63.9
135.9
112.1
39.6
95.7
79.6
26.5
158.3
112.9
GUIMARAS
258.6
317.1
294.9
219.4
260.7
234.5
134.8
159.3
143.8
54.8
90.2
69.2
53.1
73.6
61.8
31.0
56.2
41.9
ILOILO
208.1
309.5
265.9
212.9
360.5
262.4
101.6
244.0
170.3
41.5
139.7
73.5
28.1
95.0
61.1
17.1
138.7
77.2
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
197.4
371.3
296.7
251.7
341.5
310.9
159.4
264.6
200.5
85.6
125.5
106.5
68.0
121.2
94.8
10.3
67.2
46.6
NEGROS ORIENTAL
178.2
343.3
269.0
215.3
328.7
286.3
133.4
198.3
167.5
103.9
160.6
129.4
64.2
105.9
88.7
15.8
68.4
42.1
BOHOL
163.2
223.7
197.5
195.0
293.5
258.4
163.9
233.7
212.8
120.4
272.8
225.7
96.1
166.5
145.6
69.2
134.3
100.0
CEBU
174.0
311.0
213.9
216.8
328.2
260.4
135.2
265.2
190.5
122.5
223.8
147.8
76.2
149.9
109.7
39.8
155.5
66.4
SIQUIJOR
168.2
191.8
181.9
208.0
237.1
222.2
142.7
155.8
148.7
124.9
150.6
140.2
77.6
88.0
84.8
71.0
99.4
87.3
BILIRAN
257.3
281.2
270.5
273.1
316.7
280.9
252.2
289.5
269.9
171.6
193.0
179.1
116.0
157.7
133.2
177.0
213.8
194.4
EASTERN SAMAR
217.6
398.7
322.7
407.5
571.1
499.0
505.2
676.1
597.0
340.3
460.6
407.0
278.0
378.7
329.8
237.6
291.5
264.3
LEYTE
207.5
283.6
249.8
260.4
437.5
316.8
221.7
440.0
307.7
172.5
380.8
240.1
101.3
318.7
174.4
115.7
284.9
208.7
NORTHERN SAMAR
266.5
402.0
342.7
360.3
598.1
525.4
376.7
712.9
626.9
254.3
398.2
347.5
179.9
317.9
283.6
201.9
329.8
302.2
224.4
394.3
288.6
292.2
559.2
420.9
312.2
660.1
496.5
211.2
416.8
321.6
169.1
331.3
260.9
186.3
296.3
266.8
SOUTHERN LEYTE
179.3
273.3
225.2
260.8
439.9
366.9
224.6
444.0
360.7
242.7
418.3
328.6
161.2
346.8
279.4
113.8
315.1
214.3
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
180.6
293.9
245.6
186.6
332.2
294.6
112.0
232.9
191.8
84.3
148.2
110.1
53.4
99.7
63.9
55.8
84.7
70.4
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
164.0
287.8
232.5
161.9
327.9
277.5
97.3
239.1
191.1
76.0
137.8
113.9
54.0
116.6
82.2
73.0
119.7
90.7
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
231.0
289.0
256.5
226.9
303.5
273.7
148.1
216.3
185.6
91.8
126.0
108.2
53.8
89.1
66.5
69.9
105.9
84.9
BUKIDNON
135.7
244.5
215.2
145.5
262.0
199.1
112.9
218.2
157.2
110.2
298.3
175.4
87.2
208.3
129.4
66.7
199.9
130.8
CAMIGUIN
169.3
180.5
175.2
227.9
257.5
244.1
171.6
212.8
192.7
220.3
291.8
258.8
125.2
168.9
147.5
89.2
99.9
94.3
LANAO DEL NORTE
166.2
245.0
211.6
186.3
327.7
262.9
135.6
208.6
182.5
95.1
138.3
115.6
91.8
143.6
121.7
69.5
115.1
92.4
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
158.6
223.5
190.2
257.8
321.8
293.4
177.6
216.9
196.6
115.8
149.4
134.5
84.6
122.6
100.2
75.3
92.2
82.4
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
133.4
211.5
173.6
160.5
257.7
198.6
118.7
333.5
175.6
96.0
389.5
194.3
78.2
359.6
142.6
62.7
143.8
85.8
COMPOSTELA VALLEY
125.9
199.8
149.4
143.1
252.8
178.0
111.0
316.9
189.1
156.2
363.0
218.5
144.7
346.9
204.9
71.2
317.9
186.7
DAVAO
124.1
221.4
155.3
143.5
196.3
168.8
111.0
215.9
151.1
128.2
226.3
192.9
115.4
217.5
156.6
75.3
236.9
190.0
DAVAO DEL SUR
104.1
194.8
135.4
101.6
178.1
137.6
87.8
151.0
115.8
84.4
213.1
132.9
78.1
154.6
107.6
6.0
205.0
108.9
DAVAO ORIENTAL
109.9
218.5
143.7
134.2
319.4
179.2
108.3
379.9
196.3
130.0
476.8
241.7
131.3
445.7
236.9
23.3
366.9
161.7
SOUTH COTABATO
87.1
136.3
110.2
95.0
139.8
104.1
87.4
117.5
93.2
73.3
89.2
83.8
57.9
89.8
76.7
61.8
137.3
101.5
COTABATO
85.5
234.5
136.4
110.6
264.1
154.0
88.3
176.8
118.5
78.3
186.8
113.7
56.0
148.1
84.3
124.4
185.4
154.8
SARANGANI
105.8
133.2
114.9
99.9
132.8
108.3
86.7
112.2
93.9
82.7
117.4
91.8
78.5
111.2
91.6
23.3
113.5
60.5
SULTAN KUDARAT
85.2
155.2
118.8
95.0
192.1
124.8
87.2
141.0
106.2
70.7
105.8
81.9
55.8
92.4
73.5
105.4
153.4
132.7
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
187.7
268.6
213.6
212.5
496.9
293.4
229.1
705.1
381.4
312.3
789.5
463.7
222.7
711.5
402.2
121.6
366.7
219.6
AGUSAN DEL SUR
174.2
246.5
212.8
173.6
422.8
263.0
168.5
533.0
288.0
203.0
615.4
354.8
147.4
574.2
311.3
128.0
418.5
254.0
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
203.0
282.4
242.6
384.0
586.8
481.9
531.5
796.5
660.0
537.2
897.4
727.7
422.2
808.0
612.5
301.3
462.7
395.2
SURIGAO DEL SUR
212.2
287.2
250.1
302.7
604.5
442.4
363.6
805.4
524.2
433.9
913.7
637.4
418.7
827.4
595.8
315.1
479.1
397.9
REGION XIII- CARAGA
ARMM
BASILAN
169.7
202.6
194.9
176.1
209.2
201.7
105.4
134.1
120.7
86.4
99.7
96.4
62.7
70.6
68.3
81.8
101.6
95.1
MAGUINDANAO
84.7
224.5
127.0
97.9
262.1
160.0
87.2
180.5
118.1
73.8
139.0
90.2
55.3
146.6
78.6
126.7
156.2
147.7
LANAO DEL SUR
166.3
251.7
228.0
194.1
294.6
253.8
140.9
208.4
179.6
95.9
151.3
132.1
102.5
154.7
137.5
75.9
145.3
110.9
SULU
176.3
213.0
188.5
182.1
207.4
187.5
133.0
224.9
157.2
97.7
151.0
105.3
66.7
141.2
77.4
89.5
107.9
99.9
FORECAST RAINFALL per Region in (mm) and (%N)
REGION
ARMM
CAR
NCR
NIR
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 4-A
Region 4-B
Region 5
Region 6
Region 7
Region 8
Region 9
Region 10
Region 11
Region 12
CARAGA
REGION
Luzon
Visayas
Mindanao
MIN
84.7
108.5
244.9
178.2
99.2
229.5
181.2
186.8
129.3
271.3
208.1
163.2
179.3
164.0
133.4
104.1
85.2
174.2
OCTOBER
MAX MEAN %NORMAL MIN
251.7 177.5
86.0 97.9
474.6 270.5
95.7 21.2
317.6 279.5
124.6 133.8
371.3 285.7
112.7 215.3
323.6 187.3
92.1 20.0
628.1 341.0
118.2 70.3
673.5 303.4
129.6 50.9
684.1 401.0
127.6 131.4
387.9 243.6
108.3 132.4
594.0 365.0
120.5 282.7
388.4 295.7
112.3 212.9
311.0 205.7
108.4 195.0
402.0 288.5
113.4 260.4
293.9 242.7
96.6 161.9
245.0 203.2
93.9 145.5
221.4 144.3
87.9 101.6
234.5 122.4
84.0 95.0
287.2 224.7
103.8 173.6
NOVEMBER
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
294.6 200.2 123.7
482.2 163.4 94.8
182.2 151.1 129.8
341.5 301.2 136.1
315.6 63.9 93.5
491.3 281.7 114.7
557.4 139.4 117.6
640.0 340.9 131.1
390.7 224.4 137.2
657.9 436.6 121.2
422.0 301.1 141.5
328.2 258.3 137.8
598.1 418.0 125.6
332.2 284.8 119.8
327.7 220.6 127.4
319.4 163.3 113.7
264.1 127.6 112.7
604.5 341.7 120.6
MIN
99.2
163.2
84.7
OCTOBER
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
684.1 303.8 114.2
402.0 275.8 112.2
293.9 183.4 92.2
NOVEMBER
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
657.9 239.3 117.6
598.1 338.5 133.6
604.5 221.2 119.2
MIN
20.0
195.0
95.0
MIN
87.2
5.1
72.9
133.4
0.0
27.3
18.2
65.0
49.9
256.6
92.8
135.2
221.7
97.3
112.9
87.8
86.7
168.5
DECEMBER
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
309.6 151.0 116.9
284.1 85.1 106.1
102.6 83.6 137.2
264.6 187.4 128.2
178.0 21.3 108.1
415.2 161.1 103.5
472.0 77.9 122.9
660.7 283.5 127.2
359.0 144.2 128.5
791.0 451.9 122.7
273.2 183.9 124.4
265.2 198.7 115.6
712.9 471.0 123.7
239.1 190.5 129.0
333.5 169.8 118.2
379.9 160.1 113.3
176.8 105.5 117.9
805.4 410.6 109.8
MIN
0.0
92.8
86.7
DECEMBER
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
791.0 172.2 117.2
712.9 296.1 123.6
805.4 200.7 117.0
MIN
73.8
6.0
20.4
85.6
4.3
16.4
4.8
20.9
12.9
162.2
37.8
120.4
171.6
76.0
95.1
84.4
70.7
203.0
JANUARY
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
215.9 111.2 109.9
105.0 31.8 73.8
26.1 21.6 42.2
160.6 115.6 109.2
76.2 13.2 59.3
175.5 53.7 81.3
225.9 29.7 63.1
254.1 101.1 85.0
210.5 64.3 98.9
351.6 229.5 114.6
143.0 85.7 104.1
272.8 181.3 114.6
460.6 318.3 120.0
148.2 111.2 119.9
389.5 165.8 105.5
476.8 191.7 104.9
186.8 95.2 106.6
913.7 488.1 109.1
MIN
4.3
37.8
70.7
JANUARY
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
351.6 72.3 83.1
460.6 196.7 113.1
913.7 202.1 108.9
MIN
55.3
0.0
9.1
64.2
1.4
7.5
3.9
9.1
4.2
78.7
18.1
76.2
101.3
53.4
78.2
78.1
55.8
147.4
FEBRUARY
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
180.0 100.3 118.8
72.0 24.2 69.3
14.1 10.6 77.1
121.2 92.4 134.6
45.3 6.9
54.7
165.2 55.3 99.9
197.9 28.7 78.3
189.6 68.3 104.1
92.0 32.3 100.9
283.3 148.7 105.3
113.3 63.4 123.1
166.5 124.4 135.0
378.7 253.6 122.5
116.6 71.0 104.8
359.6 127.7 123.3
445.7 172.5 126.2
148.1 81.0 118.6
827.4 431.1 127.0
MIN
0.0
18.3
53.4
FEBRUARY
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
283.3 51.2 89.7
378.7 152.4 127.6
827.4 171.6 120.5
MIN
75.9
0.0
0.0
10.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.1
17.1
39.8
113.8
55.8
62.7
6.0
23.3
121.6
MARCH
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
156.2 123.3 140.7
57.6 8.8 106.8
49.8 21.4 105.0
68.4 44.8 105.8
48.7 12.4 68.2
242.5 73.7 104.3
283.6 47.7 90.0
284.2 116.9 109.0
152.2 45.9 104.6
300.1 155.4 127.5
158.3 95.6 112.4
155.5 81.6 122.2
329.8 250.4 126.2
119.7 80.2 103.9
199.9 109.8 117.1
366.9 154.9 109.0
185.4 121.5 124.5
479.1 304.5 114.1
MIN
0.0
10.3
6.01
MARCH
MAX MEAN %NORMAL
300.1 65.35 102.6
329.8 140.2 117.7
479.1 153.6 117.3
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected
Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N)
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (OCTOBER 2016 - MARCH 2017 )
NAME
way below normal
near normal
below normal
above normal
MIN
MAX
OCTOBER
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
NOVEMBER
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
DECEMBER
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
JANUARY
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
FEBRUARY
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
MARCH
MEAN
%NORMAL
Angat Watershed
Lake Buhi
320.2
389.5
351.0
118.9
178.1
263.1
219.2
133.4
95.3
167.8
129.1
135.3
14.8
48.6
31.0
65.1
22.0
43.9
28.2
90.1
64.1
115.8
85.6
103.7
301.8
393.5
339.0
120.0
323.8
493.2
386.3
119.2
336.0
464.3
405.5
119.2
92.9
176.3
119.4
115.7
165.3
274.4
193.4
91.8
60.4
256.5
118.4
136.4
Lake Lanao Magat Watershed Malinao Watershed Pantabangan Watershed San Roque Cascade WS
153.1
252.7
213.1
99.1
169.6
280.3
232.0
136.8
122.0
201.0
166.3
113.6
84.5
154.7
123.7
101.2
95.5
182.2
130.9
122.9
63.2
127.9
94.4
123.1
229.5
317.3
274.7
103.8
78.5
238.5
137.5
108.0
26.4
131.9
58.0
100.2
7.5
58.5
23.7
59.5
15.8
46.3
26.0
79.8
0.0
64.4
29.6
131.3
193.1
220.1
204.7
106.0
268.8
291.6
278.9
141.6
223.4
233.7
230.9
111.5
158.1
166.5
164.3
120.2
240.6
261.6
249.6
141.2
87.4
103.8
94.3
136.7
243.1
342.7
292.0
120.6
94.3
171.1
125.8
107.5
37.4
100.9
63.6
118.7
8.1
58.5
26.9
80.4
13.0
46.2
25.8
93.2
44.0
109.3
69.4
102.9
216.3
297.8
281.7
84.6
61.3
97.2
80.2
85.3
23.2
29.1
26.3
109.7
7.7
11.4
9.4
56.6
12.5
20.7
17.6
51.7
31.8
57.6
48.6
126.2
FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER
SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2016 – MAR 2017
OCTOBER
SITES
way below
normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
AMBUKLAODAM
ANGATDAM
APUNAN
BADAYAN
BINGADAM
BOBOK
BUNGA
BUYOC
DANTOR
DUMAYUP
HALONG
IPODAM
MAGATDAM
MAPUTI
MARIKIT
MATULID
NORZAGARAY
PADALIS
PANTABANGAN DAM
SANROQUEDAM
STODOMINGO
TALAGUIO
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
295.5
83.0
81.1
83.7
26.2
108.4
333.2
117.8
199.2
131.9
114.5
137.9
283.1
83.5
88.1
87.3
25.5
105.1
269.7
82.6
89.4
86.1
24.5
99.7
296.2
82.5
79.6
83.7
26.6
109.6
290.9
85.6
82.2
83.7
27.0
107.9
276.6
106.0
100.9
99.3
41.1
123.2
283.1
113.6
175.1
121.2
80.2
93.1
308.4
106.5
182.3
110.9
81.3
89.1
267.2
112.6
190.8
129.2
92.2
96.5
297.7
101.2
129.9
100.6
43.6
87.0
303.8
119.5
169.4
130.0
91.2
134.5
258.1
106.1
237.1
127.5
132.7
94.6
351.6
119.7
220.5
133.4
129.3
133.9
326.3
131.8
158.6
110.9
93.2
108.0
363.9
117.7
233.7
133.1
142.0
135.7
300.1
120.1
165.8
131.3
87.3
133.5
303.1
124.4
137.3
110.1
71.9
116.7
261.5
126.5
114.1
111.9
58.6
124.5
216.3
92.0
61.4
86.0
23.6
121.1
233.3
103.5
111.7
112.0
44.4
106.7
326.7
120.0
190.3
134.8
104.7
136.7
JANUARY
MM
18.7
29.5
16.6
16.2
18.6
19.1
18.5
33.0
32.6
37.0
23.2
24.7
43.0
29.3
40.3
35.6
23.7
29.7
18.7
12.5
20.1
25.1
%NORMAL
61.4
54.9
56.8
64.8
58.9
57.9
52.0
68.5
75.1
66.1
73.4
43.1
73.4
65.3
97.8
73.7
41.3
90.8
94.4
38.7
44.4
48.7
FEBRUARY
MM
9.5
18.4
8.0
7.8
10.2
8.9
9.9
36.7
31.0
44.9
17.7
11.6
56.5
31.9
51.1
30.3
10.9
33.8
21.4
9.2
17.6
17.6
%NORMAL
49.0
78.8
44.4
44.3
51.8
46.4
66.7
100.4
83.8
113.6
65.7
70.8
116.3
93.5
113.7
94.6
68.9
103.3
99.3
67.0
83.4
75.3
MARCH
MM
50.5
66.0
40.4
26.1
54.8
48.7
51.2
13.1
0.0
29.5
9.7
45.0
4.0
93.4
100.5
87.8
44.0
76.9
57.8
44.1
42.7
68.8
%NORMAL
132.3
108.2
139.1
138.9
124.2
132.1
108.0
135.9
132.3
133.3
136.7
108.7
128.1
100.1
98.7
107.5
106.3
103.5
96.0
97.9
131.1
101.6
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2016
CATCHMENT
way below
normalnormal
below
near normal
above normal
MIN
Abra RB
109.0
Abulug RB
227.7
Agno RB
181.2
Agus RB
134.1
Agusan RB
131.0
Bicol RB
307.3
Buayan-Malungon 106.6
Bued RB
182.3
Cagayan de Oro
159.6
Cagayan RB
173.3
Cotabato RB
84.7
Davao RB
139.4
Laoag RB
99.2
Pampanga RB
192.9
Pasig-Laguna RB 222.7
Sinocalan RB
182.2
Tagoloan River
158.0
Tagum-Libuganon 135.1
OCTOBER 2016
MAX MEAN %Normal
304.5 162.4
73.9
465.7 355.8 113.1
297.8 229.1 102.2
225.2 171.7
95.2
241.8 199.6 100.6
519.5 357.8 120.9
121.8 112.4
99.4
291.0 209.3
97.3
241.2 200.7
97.4
650.2 324.5 114.2
244.5 150.8
80.8
214.6 173.1
85.1
332.1 140.5
73.4
414.3 281.2 134.2
552.4 323.0 125.5
212.6 189.2 106.6
236.3 198.0
92.6
211.6 153.1
84.6
MIN
20.8
142.2
52.9
160.5
154.0
327.0
99.8
53.4
167.4
69.5
95.0
153.0
29.1
61.7
117.1
53.5
162.7
156.1
NOVEMBER 2016
MAX MEAN %Normal
198.2 57.1
70.8
469.9 314.2 115.7
99.2 69.4
98.7
258.0 193.9 139.3
387.3 240.9 122.1
549.5 398.8 118.8
117.4 105.3 113.1
79.0 59.8
95.4
244.0 203.5 134.6
526.6 241.2 110.3
267.8 156.0 116.5
190.5 172.9 112.0
263.2 74.1
97.5
268.5 116.8 121.2
477.3 222.7 134.0
62.0 57.7
104.1
219.6 186.3 122.6
199.8 174.5 115.5
MIN
5.1
73.1
16.7
118.8
129.2
345.3
87.0
15.8
123.4
24.7
87.2
119.6
0.0
22.5
52.3
15.9
130.4
122.1
DECEMBER 2016
MAX MEAN %Normal
127.5
26.7
114.5
277.5 167.9
108.1
36.3
24.9
118.3
173.6 142.7
118.5
451.9 265.6
113.7
640.3 430.6
123.1
102.0
91.7
117.3
25.6
19.4
114.6
172.5 153.7
120.1
432.5 137.0
101.4
190.2 121.8
117.0
157.3 136.1
109.9
131.8
21.8
93.5
172.8
58.4
128.0
377.1 142.4
134.2
20.5
17.0
115.3
174.8 158.7
127.6
247.1 174.1
121.5
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
JANUARY– MARCH 2017
CATCHMENT
way below
normalnormal
below
near normal
above normal
MIN
Abra RB
5.3
Abulug RB
32.2
Agno RB
4.8
Agus RB
95.1
Agusan RB
175.1
Bicol RB
165.3
Buayan-Malungon 82.3
Bued RB
7.0
Cagayan de Oro
112.4
Cagayan RB
15.8
Cotabato RB
70.7
Davao RB
140.7
Laoag RB
8.9
Pampanga RB
4.8
Pasig-Laguna RB
17.6
Sinocalan RB
5.5
Tagoloan River
121.8
Tagum-Libuganon 174.9
JANUARY 2017
MAX MEAN %Normal
41.3 14.0
65.1
103.0 63.8
87.7
20.8 10.7
44.4
136.6 106.3 98.3
555.4 325.2 105.8
274.4 193.6 113.2
108.3 90.1 102.2
16.9 10.2
43.1
182.7 142.6 104.2
194.2 44.8
79.1
261.1 118.2 108.6
205.7 183.3 113.7
58.9 18.6
66.1
68.4 16.9
59.7
125.0 44.6
62.9
8.4
7.4
34.5
221.1 177.1 106.5
269.7 202.1 104.2
MIN
0.0
18.8
4.9
78.2
144.3
93.1
77.1
5.4
86.8
6.9
55.3
110.6
1.4
5.1
9.2
5.3
89.5
140.6
FEBRUARY 2017
MAX MEAN %Normal
34.4 6.4
41.8
70.0 44.3
89.9
11.9 7.8
59.4
131.6 96.6 124.7
500.4 284.2 129.1
174.9 120.7 93.7
99.8 89.0 125.8
11.5 8.2
64.4
135.6 111.5 119.3
175.2 47.8
94.1
173.1 92.3 116.9
142.2 129.9 120.2
36.2 6.3
53.4
86.9 16.1
81.0
82.9 23.5
89.8
8.4
6.4
61.6
148.8 122.9 122.4
260.8 171.2 126.7
MIN
0.0
0.0
0.0
62.7
98.0
60.5
41.2
14.8
64.6
0.0
88.0
125.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.4
69.1
152.9
MARCH 2017
MAX MEAN %Normal
29.9
3.5
102.5
23.7
6.1
71.7
57.6
19.9
89.3
103.9
73.9
128.9
390.4 232.1
111.2
255.4 119.4
134.5
101.1
70.7
125.6
57.5
36.2
88.4
125.2
91.3
122.8
225.0
50.5
112.1
197.9 144.0
119.2
200.5 182.3
99.2
2.8
1.9
78.9
153.4
34.9
89.1
117.0
44.3
107.2
31.1
16.0
73.7
139.9
99.7
122.0
268.8 206.3
98.8
Tropical Cyclone Forecast
MONTH
Number of TC
OCTOBER 2016
1 to 3
NOVEMBER 2016
1 to 3
DECEMBER 2016
1 to 2
JANUARY
0 or 1
FEBRUARY
0 or 1
MARCH
0 or 1
Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)
Wet Day Forecast
OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2016
MEAN NUMBER OF WET DAY* FORECAST PER PROVINCE
WET DAY FORECAST (OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2016) as of Sept. 20, 2016
PROVINCE
ABRA
BENGUET
IFUGAO
KALINGA
APAYAO
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE
ILOCOS SUR
LA UNION
PANGASINAN
REGION II
BATANES
CAGAYAN
ISABELA
NUEVA VIZCAYA
QUIRINO
BATAAN
BULACAN
NUEVA ECIJA
PAMPANGA
TARLAC
ZAMBALES
AURORA
METRO MANILA
BATANGAS
CAVITE
LAGUNA
RIZAL
QUEZON
MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
ORIENTAL MINDORO
ROMBLON
PALAWAN
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
MASBATE
SORSOGON
OCT
NOV
DEC
9
14
14
12
10
13
5
6
10
9
9
9
5
6
12
10
10
10
7
10
12
9
4
4
5
3
3
4
4
2
16
14
14
14
15
16
14
14
9
13
17
15
15
10
15
8
15
12
10
8
9
16
4
10
7
5
4
4
15
4
9
7
4
2
3
14
14
11
9
12
10
15
17
20
11
7
17
16
21
17
11
18
15
25
19
14
16
17
14
19
12
15
14
10
26
19
23
22
18
18
21
19
20
15
16
19
22
19
22
15
20
27
27
27
26
19
26
*WET DAY- a day with 1 mm of rainfall or more
WET DAY FORECAST (OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2016) as of Sept. 20, 2016
PROVINCE
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
BOHOL
CEBU
SIQUIJOR
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SOUTHERN LEYTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
BUKIDNON
CAMIGUIN
LANAO DEL NORTE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
COMPOSTELA VALLEY
DAVAO
DAVAO DEL SUR
DAVAO ORIENTAL
SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
AGUSAN DEL SUR
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
ARMM
BASILAN
MAGUINDANAO
LANAO DEL SUR
SULU
OCT
NOV
DEC
15
15
16
15
15
13
11
13
11
12
15
11
13
11
12
16
14
11
10
13
16
14
14
13
13
12
13
17
15
21
14
20
15
19
18
15
17
19
16
21
19
15
20
26
20
26
24
18
14
15
14
16
16
16
23
22
22
17
14
15
16
15
13
11
12
16
11
14
14
16
22
14
12
15
13
10
14
14
10
13
17
15
10
16
11
16
9
13
8
12
7
10
10
12
9
12
17
17
16
16
16
17
18
19
22
22
24
27
10
14
15
9
9
11
11
7
13
13
13
12
Dry Day Forecast
JANUARY – MARCH 2017
MEAN NUMBER OF DRY DAY* FORECAST PER PROVINCE
DRY DAY FORECAST (JANUARY -MARCH 2017) as of Sept. 20, 2016
DRY DAY FORECAST (JANUARY -MARCH 2017) as of Sept. 20, 2016
PROVINCE
ABRA
BENGUET
IFUGAO
KALINGA
APAYAO
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE
ILOCOS SUR
LA UNION
PANGASINAN
REGION II
BATANES
CAGAYAN
ISABELA
NUEVA VIZCAYA
QUIRINO
BATAAN
BULACAN
NUEVA ECIJA
PAMPANGA
TARLAC
ZAMBALES
AURORA
METRO MANILA
BATANGAS
CAVITE
LAGUNA
RIZAL
QUEZON
MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
ORIENTAL MINDORO
ROMBLON
PALAWAN
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
MASBATE
SORSOGON
PROVINCE
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
BOHOL
CEBU
SIQUIJOR
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SOUTHERN LEYTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
BUKIDNON
CAMIGUIN
LANAO DEL NORTE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
COMPOSTELA VALLEY
DAVAO
DAVAO DEL SUR
DAVAO ORIENTAL
SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
AGUSAN DEL SUR
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
ARMM
BASILAN
MAGUINDANAO
LANAO DEL SUR
SULU
JAN
FEB
MAR
30
30
29
29
27
30
26
24
23
24
25
24
29
25
26
28
28
27
29
31
30
31
27
26
25
26
29
28
26
28
17
24
24
28
23
15
21
19
21
17
22
26
25
24
22
31
27
28
31
31
31
20
28
23
23
27
27
26
14
30
26
26
30
30
29
20
29
24
27
26
30
23
23
15
22
26
19
19
13
25
28
23
23
19
17
22
19
21
28
16
19
16
20
24
20
24
22
22
27
16
14
17
15
19
15
13
12
14
13
16
12
15
17
17
14
20
14
*DRY DAY- a day with 0 or < 1 mm of rainfall
JAN
FEB
MAR
23
25
22
25
24
21
22
20
22
21
23
24
22
23
23
24
23
21
21
23
23
19
21
19
17
19
18
21
22
22
17
10
15
10
13
14
14
12
14
13
14
13
16
14
16
15
15
16
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
18
18
20
18
18
16
16
21
19
16
18
20
22
21
20
16
18
21
16
13
14
18
13
16
17
20
17
22
20
23
21
19
19
19
20
23
20
23
22
12
12
10
8
10
9
9
6
13
12
13
10
26
21
20
28
21
20
21
22
23
22
22
24
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
Oct 2016 – Mar 2017
Slightly cooler
than average
Slightly cooler
than average
Warmer than
average
Warmer than
average
average
Warmer than
average
Slightly warmer
Slightly Warmer
Slightly cooler
than average
cooler than
average
cooler than
average
cooler than
average
Slightly cooler
Slightly cooler
Near average
Slightly cooler
Near average
Slightly warmer
FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)
October 2016 – March 2017
TMAX Summary
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon
29.9
37.2
29.0
37.1
26.3
35.2
26.2
35.3
26.8
36.4
27.8
38.9
Lowlands Luzon
29.2
36.7
27.5
39.3
26.3
36.4
26.9
35.7
27.2
36.7
28.6
37.8
Mountainous Luzon
25.3
27.1
26.0
27.2
25.4
27.7
24.7
28.4
25.5
27.2
25.3
30.6
Metro Manila
32.5
37.3
32.8
38.0
32.3
34.6
31.5
34.8
32.1
35.1
34.0
36.7
Lowlands Visayas
32.4
37.9
31.6
38.1
29.7
35.5
29.2
35.0
30.0
36.0
30.5
36.3
Lowlands Mindanao
32.5
36.5
32.5
37.1
31.0
36.7
30.7
36.5
31.5
37.0
31.9
38.4
Mountainous Mindanao
32.0
33.3
31.9
33.5
32.0
33.4
31.6
33.8
32.0
35.2
32.4
34.1
TMIN Summary
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon
17.4
24.8
16.4
24.0
13.3
24.0
14.0
20.8
12.4
22.7
19.3
22.9
Lowlands Luzon
18.5
24.9
16.0
25.8
13.0
25.6
14.8
25.5
15.3
24.9
17.0
25.4
Mountainous Luzon
13.7
15.3
11.3
13.9
9.4
13.2
10.2
12.0
9.4
11.9
9.8
14.0
Metro Manila
21.5
24.8
20.3
26.3
17.7
26.0
17.9
25.0
17.4
24.3
19.2
24.6
Lowlands Visayas
20.0
25.6
19.5
25.1
17.9
24.6
19.0
25.3
17.3
24.5
18.6
25.1
Lowlands Mindanao
18.6
24.2
19.0
24.5
19.3
23.7
18.6
23.1
17.9
23.3
16.8
24.4
Mountainous Mindanao
16.9
19.0
15.2
17.6
12.9
17.7
13.9
16.9
13.4
17.0
14.0
18.6
SUMMARY
• Cool ENSO-neutral conditions continue in the tropical
Pacific.
• Most models suggest either cool ENSO-neutral or
borderline La Nina in October 2016 that may persist
until DJF 2016/17
• La Niña Watch still in effect.
• NE monsoon to commence in latter part of October;
• 3-7 tropical cyclones may develop/enter the PAR from
October to March 2016/17;
SUMMARY
• Oct-Dec 2016 - Generally near to above normal
rainfall conditions are likely that may potentially
trigger floods and landslides over vulnerable areas;
• Jan 2017 – below normal over most parts of Luzon
while near normal rainfall in Visayas and Mindanao;
• Feb. 2017 – generally above normal rainfall;
• March 2017- near to above normal rainfall with
patches of below normal rainfall conditions in
western Luzon
PAGASA will continue to closely
monitor the situation and
updates/advisories shall be issued
as appropriate.
Weekly ENSO monitoring is available at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/climate/climate-prediction/elnino-southern-oscillation-enso-status
Next Update: October 19, 2016
The Weather and Climate Authority
MARAMING
SALAMAT!

The Weather and Climate Authority

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