BLUE BOOK - Kelley Blue Book Media Center

USED
BLUE
BOOK
Market Report
CAR
EDITION
JUNE
2013
Automotive Insights from Kelley Blue Book
Kelley Blue Book Public Relations Contacts:
Chintan Talati | Senior Director, Public Relations Joanna Pinkham | Senior Public Relations Manager
949.267.4855 | [email protected]
949.268.3079 | [email protected]
Brenna Robinson | Public Relations Manager
949.267.4781 | [email protected]
In This Issue:
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS
Auction Values Ease into Typical Summer Decline
Auction Values Ease into Typical Summer Decline
Fuel Prices Remain Mostly Flat in May and June
Compact Segment - Retained Value
Auction Values Begin Summer Decline
$19,000
Natalie Kumaratne | Public Relations Coordinator
949.267.4770 | [email protected]
Consistent Declines in the Compact Segment
$18,500
Imports Outperforming Most Full-Size Pickup Trucks
in June
$18,000
Auction Values
$17,500
Mid-Size Pickup Trucks Trending Higher in 2013 Due to
Diminished Supply
$17,000
$16,500
Minivan Auction Values Drop During Last Four Weeks
$16,000
SUV/Crossover Segment Declines in June
$15,500
Mid-Size Vehicles Continue Decline in June
$15,000
Full-Size Sedans Down Year-to-Date
$14,500
CY 2011
CY 2012
Luxury Values See Small Declines in June
CY 2013
$14,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Luxury Utility Vehicles Retaining Strong Values
Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
•
HOT USED-CAR REPORT
Gas Prices and Fuel Efficiency Affect the Market
Auction values declined a modest 1.2 percent in June led by declines in values of fuel-efficient
small cars and alternative energy vehicles.
Pickup trucks remain hot and were among the best performing segments overall with nearly no depreciation for the month.
“Used-vehicle values should continue to decline at a pace of nearly 1 percent per month through summer, thanks to improving supply conditions at
auction and enticing finance and lease offers on news cars,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst, Kelley Blue Book. Fuel Prices Remain Mostly Flat in May and June
Fuel Prices Remain Flat May-June
$4.50
Fuel Prices
$4.00
•
$3.50
Fuel prices remained mostly flat through May and early June relative
to previous years where fuel price declines began in April and May. At the moment, fuel prices are a little more than $0.10 per gallon
higher than during the same time last year.
$3.00
$2.50
CY11
CY12
CY13
$2.00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
“We expect a late seasonal trend to take effect starting mid-June, which will bring fuel prices down slightly going into summer months,” said Gutierrez. “With fuel prices expected to retreat, consumers should have no trouble getting a great deal on a used compact this summer.”
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Compact Segment - Retained Value
MY12 Retained Value (Auction Value/MSRP)
Retained Value, Compact Segment
Veloster
82.0%
Impreza
80.8%
Civic
72.6%
Elantra
72.5%
Segment Average
69.5%
Lancer
69.0%
Corolla
67.5%
MAZDA3
67.3%
Cruze
67.1%
Focus
•
In a segment where there is fierce competition among competitors, the 2012 Hyundai
Veloster stands out as having the best retained value among the compact car segment.
“The all-new for 2012 Veloster maintains the highest retained value within the compact car
segment with an impressive 82 percent of its MSRP,” said Gutierrez. “The only other vehicle
within the segment to hold above 80 percent of its retained value after one year is the completely
redesigned for 2012 Subaru Impreza.”
•
Those looking for a great deal may want to consider the Mazda3, Chevrolet Cruze or
Ford Focus, each of which are available for the fraction of a brand new model.
65.5%
Jetta
63.6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Consistent Declines in the Compact Segment
Average Auction Value, Compact Segment
$17,050
$15,825
$14,342
$12,914
$12,807
$12,512
$12,329
$12,282
$12,223
$12,040
$11,846
$11,447
$11,439
$11,251
$11,234
$11,200
$11,196
$11,070
$11,065
$11,050
$10,350
$10,195
$9,772
$9,575
$9,125
$0
$5,000
$10,000
Kelley Blue Book Auction Value as of June 14, 2013
MY 2010-2012
$15,000
$20,000
$12,000
$10,000
Auction Values
Buick Verano
Hyundai Veloster
Scion tC
Kia Soul
Chevrolet Cruze
Honda Civic
Subaru Impreza
Scion xB
Volkswagen Jetta
Hyundai Elantra
Segment Average
Kia Forte
Toyota Corolla
Ford Focus
Mazda Mazda3
Toyota Matrix
Dodge Caliber
Mitsubishi Lancer
Scion xD
Volkswagen Beetle
Nissan Sentra
Chevrolet HHR
Nissan Cube
Chrysler PT Cruiser
Chevrolet Cobalt
Compact Segment Continues Steady Decline
$14,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
CY 2011
CY 2012
CY 2013
$0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
Compact segment values remained at a steady decline throughout May and June,
maintaining a segment average value slightly lower than in 2012.
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
“The average auction value for vehicles within the compact segment comes in at $11,846 with 16 vehicles falling within the $11,000 to $13,000 range,”
said Gutierrez. “With such a large number of vehicles falling within a $2,000 range, it makes the compact segment one of the most competitive segments
in the market.”
•
Values in the compact segment have been negatively impacted by falling fuel prices as well as low lease offers on new vehicles.
2 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
JUNE 2013
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Imports Outperforming Most Full-Size Pickup Trucks in June
Four-Week Auction Value Change (%)
Tundra
0.5%
Titan
0.4%
Ram Pickup
0.0%
F-Series
0.0%
Sierra
•
•
-0.3%
•
Silverado
-0.3%
Ridgeline
By mid-June, auction values for the Toyota Tundra and Nissan Titan were up
0.5 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, from mid-May values.
Interest in used domestic trucks like the GMC Sierra and Chevrolet Silverado
may be waning as the redesigned 2014 models begin to show up on dealer
lots.
The Chevrolet Avalanche, discontinued after model-year 2013, was the
hardest hit truck in June, dropping 0.8 percent month-over-month.
-0.6%
Avalanche
-0.8%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
June 14, 2013 vs. May 17, 2013
0.4%
0.6%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Mid-Size Pickup Trucks Trending Higher in 2013 Due to Diminished Supply
Mid-Size Trucks Trend Higher
$15,500
$15,000
•
Auction Values
$14,500
•
$14,000
$13,500
“Higher values in 2013 are likely due to the end of production for
several models like the Ford Ranger and Ram Dakota, decreasing
the overall supply of used mid-size pickup trucks in the market,” said
Gutierrez. “A decreased supply also greatly affects trucks with higher
auction value retention, such as the Toyota Tacoma, by increasing
their average market value.”
$13,000
$12,500
$12,000
$11,500
CY 2011
$11,000
CY 2012
The average auction value for 1- to 3-year-old mid-size pickup
trucks rose 0.3 percent in June from May values.
Compared to June 2012, average auction values for used mid-size
trucks in June 2013 are $596 or 4.2 percent higher.
CY 2013
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Minivan Auction Values Drop During Last Four Weeks
Four-Week Auction Value Change (%)
June 14, 2013 vs. May 17, 2013
Mazda5
0.5%
Sienna
Ram Cargo Van
-0.9%
Caravan
•
-0.9%
Sedona
•
-1.4%
Town & Country
-1.4%
Odyssey
Routan
•
-0.2%
•
-1.7%
•
-2.2%
Quest -2.3%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
3 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
JUNE 2013
During the last four weeks, auction values of 1- to 3-year-old minivans fell
1.1 percent, which was slightly better than the market average, down 1.3
percent. Values for all vehicles in the segment have dropped, with the exception of
the Mazda5 (0.5 percent increase).
The volume of Mazda5 at the auction has decreased compared to last
month (as well as last year), which may account for the increase in values.
The Nissan Quest and Volkswagen Routan have had the biggest decreases. The auction values have dropped 2.3 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.
Minivans have seen market share erode as consumers have opted for
compact crossovers rather than minivans due to better available fuel
economy.
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
SUV/Crossover Segment Declines in June
Segment
Compact Crossover
Mid-size SUV/Crossover
Full-Size SUV/Crossover
13-May
$16,378
$19,308
$24,883
13-Jun % Change
$15,877
-3.10%
$19,190
-0.60%
$24,675
-0.80%
Segment
Luxury Compact Crossover
Luxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover
Luxury Full-size SUV
13-May
$27,987
$34,486
$35,991
13-Jun % Change
$27,419
-2.00%
$34,282
-0.60%
$35,753
-0.70%
•
•
•
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
All SUV/crossover segments are decreasing in June with the biggest change
being in compact and luxury compact.
With so many redesigned and all-new entrants available to consumers such
as the Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Ford Escape and Mazda CX-5, it is only
natural to see values of previous generation models take a hit.
The biggest changes are the Mazda Tribute (down 8.5 percent), Mercury
Mariner (down 7.3 percent), Suzuki Grand Vitara (down 5.7 percent) and
Cadillac SRX (down 5.7 percent), which are all in the compact/luxury
compact crossover segment.
As we move into the summer months, Kelley Blue Book expects values to
continue to decline.
Mid-Size Vehicles Continue Decline in June
Mid-Size Vehicles Continue Decline
$15,000
•
$14,500
•
Auction Values
$14,000
$13,500
$13,000
$12,500
$12,000
$11,500
CY 2011
CY 2012
CY 2013
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Oct
Nov
Oct
Sep
Sep
Aug
Jul
Aug
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
May
Apr
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Mar
Jan
Feb
Jan
Jan
$11,000
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Mid-size sedans should end June more than 6 percent below prices
paid last year.
In June, mid-size sedans declined nearly 3 percent, about equal with
the industry leading depreciation seen in the small car and alt energy
segments.
“Mid-size sedans have seen downward price pressure as consumers have
been reluctant to pay top dollar for the current batch of late-model
previous generation offerings when the latest generation new alternatives
are available with affordable finance rates and low lease offers starting well
below $300 per month,” said Gutierrez.
Full-Size Sedans Down Year-to-Date
•
Full-Size Sedans Down YTD
$17,000
$16,500
•
$16,000
Auction Values
$15,500
$15,000
$14,500
$14,000
Values of late-model used full-size sedan are trending near 5 percent
below levels seen at this time last year.
Used full-size sedans have seen a decline interest as consumers have
gravitated towards better equipped and more fuel-efficient mid-size
sedans as well as redesigned and significantly improved new full-size
offerings such as the Chevrolet Impala, Hyundai Azera and Toyota
Avalon.
$13,500
$13,000
$12,500
CY 2011
CY 2012
CY 2013
4 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Nov
Oct
Oct
Sep
Sep
Aug
Aug
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
May
May
Apr
Apr
Mar
Feb
Mar
Feb
Jan
Jan
Jan
$12,000
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
JUNE 2013
“Overall, the peak occurred early in April this year and the values have
been on a downward slope since then,” said Gutierrez. “The early peak and
subsequent downturn in segment values can also be attributed to a jump in
off-lease inventory hitting auctions in recent months.”
USED-CAR
MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Luxury Values See Small Declines in June
Jun-13
$22,075
$48,845
$30,522
$27,419
$35,753
$34,282
$28,411
Entry-level Luxury Car
High-end Luxury Car
Luxury Car
Luxury Compact SUV/Crossover
Luxury Full-size SUV/Crossover
Luxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover
Average
May-13
$22,230
$49,655
$30,595
$27,987
$35,991
$34,486
$28,641
% Chg
-0.7%
-1.6%
-0.2%
-2.0%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.8%
•
•
Auction values of 1-to 3-year-old luxury vehicles fell nearly 0.8 percent in June,
outperforming the overall market average of 1.3 percent. Declines were at a
similar pace as in May 2013. No luxury segment appreciated in June, while values of compact luxury SUV/
Crossovers dropped by an average of 2 percent, the most of any luxury segment.
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
“Through the first half of the year, luxury depreciation has been relatively mild,” said Gutierrez. “However, we may be due for a correction soon as we
head into July. In July 2010, luxury values dropped 1.5 percent, while in July 2011, luxury cars fell 2.7 percent.”
•
Luxury values tend to fall during the summer months in anticipation of the new model year changeover, which starts in the late summer/early fall
timeframe.
Luxury Utility Vehicles Retaining Strong Values
MY10- 12 Retained Value (Auction Value/MSRP)
Luxury Utility Vehicles Retaining Value
•
Luxury Mid-size
SUV/Crossover
72.4%
Luxury Compact
SUV/Crossover
72.4%
Luxury Full-size
SUV/Crossover
67.3%
Luxury Car
62.8%
Industry Average
62.5%
Entry-level Luxury Car
62.1%
59.4%
High-end Luxury Car
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
•
Compact and mid-size luxury utility vehicles are leading the industry in terms of retained
value of MSRP at 72.4 percent. In fact, four out of six luxury segments have a higher
retention than the industry average of 62.5 percent, as overall, the luxury market sits at
65.8 percent.
Audi has two of the top five luxury models with the best retained value, the Q5 and Q7. It is worthy to note that the top five models are all crossover or sport utility vehicles.
Model
Retention
Land Rover LR4
83.6%
Audi Q7
81.2%
Porsche Cayenne
80.5%
Audi Q5
79.3%
BMW X3
77.6%
* Only models with at least 3 model years included
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
The statements set forth in this publication are the opinions of the authors and are subject to change without notice. This publication has been
prepared for informational purposes only. Kelley Blue Book assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions.
5 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
JUNE 2013
HOT USED-CAR REPORT:
Gas Prices and Fuel Efficiency Affect the Market
- Arthur Henry, manager of market intelligence and market analyst, Kelley Blue Book
Kelley Blue Book’s Hot Used-Car Report captures monthly used-car shopper activity on KBB.com, including a list of the top and bottom movers in the same time
period. Results are provided by the Kelley Blue Book Market Intelligence Team, in an effort to help dealers better understand which used vehicles consumers are looking
at most each month.
Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth
Top/Bottom 10 Models
2011 MITSUBISHI OUTLANDER SPORT
2007 SAAB 9-3
32.5%
Hybrid Car
28.4%
Compact Crossover
25.2%
2008 PORSCHE 911
Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth Segments
4.1%
2.9%
Subcompact Car
2.7%
17.7%
Luxury Crossover
2010 INFINITI G
17.2%
Premium Sports Car
2.0%
2010 TOYOTA RAV4
15.4%
Compact Car
1.8%
2008 NISSAN SENTRA
13.0%
2008 TOYOTA CAMRY
2010 TOYOTA PRIUS
8.2%
2011 TOYOTA CAMRY
7.6%
7.5%
2010 NISSAN ALTIMA
-7.0%
2007 CHEVROLET SILVERADO 1500
-8.6%
2008 CHEVROLET SILVERADO 1500
-15.1%
2007 CHEVROLET AVALANCHE
-16.4%
2011 MERCEDES-BENZ C-CLASS
-21.6%
2009 FORD TAURUS
2.0%
High Performance
1.8%
Mid -Size Car
1.0%
Entry Luxury Car
0.5%
Minivan
0.1%
Compact Luxury Car
-0.2%
Luxury Sport Utility
-0.6%
Mid -Size Crossover
-0.7%
Luxury Car
-1.0%
Mid -Size Sport Utility
-1.1%
Van
-1.3%
2011 MITSUBISHI ENDEAVOR
-23.3%
Sports Car
-1.7%
2008 NISSAN QUEST
-23.7%
Full -Size Crossover
-1.9%
-24.1%
Mid -Size Pickup Truck
2010 NISSAN TITAN
-56.3%
2008 VOLVO V70
-66.2%
2009 VOLKSWAGEN GLI
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
% Change in Share Month-Over-Month
Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model-Year Vehicles
-2.1%
Full -Size Sport Utility
-2.7%
Full -Size Car
-3.1%
Full -Size Pickup Truck
-4.1%
-5.1%
Premium Luxury Car
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
% Change in Share Month-Over-Month
Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model-Year Vehicles
•
•
•
The segments with the greatest increase in share are the hybrid car, compact crossover and subcompact car. These are the traditional gas savers in the
consumer minds and tend to fluctuate with gas prices.
Gas prices have been relatively stable, which has lowered the prices on used hybrid cars.
The 2011 Mitsubishi Outlander Sport, a compact crossover, has received an increase interest shortly after information was released on the redesigned
2014 Outlander.
About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website www.kbb.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In and
Suggested Retail Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through
various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies as well as governmental agencies. KBB.com provides consumer
pricing and information on cars for sale, minivans, pickup trucks, sedan, hybrids, electric cars, and SUVs. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of
AutoTrader Group.
6 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report
JUNE 2013