Fixed Income
Transcription
Fixed Income
Change creates opportunity. Fundamental changes in bond market structure have created a new “liquidity-scape,” and new opportunities to improve execution quality. Trading Venues Fixed Income A market structure sea change. For many decades, fixed-income liquidity was concentrated on the balance sheets of primary dealers—mostly large banks—and traded in a traditional way, counterparty to counterparty. But the traditional method of sourcing liquidity and trading bonds is under pressure: liquidity is flowing in new and different ways. Dealers’ roles are being redefined. As capital has become more costly, they have had to reevaluate their trading models and think more strategically about how much bond inventory they hold on their balance sheets. -21% -48% Traditional liquidity provider flow ebbs. Top 10 primary dealer fixed-income balance sheet capacity. US Corporate Bonds 2007 2015 US Treasury Securities 2007 Greater transparency, prolonged low interest rates, narrow spreads, and emerging technology are also helping reshape the bond market trading landscape. The ground is shifting, and while the dealer community’s role in facilitating trading remains critical, investors are exploring additional sources of liquidity and additional trading protocols to meet their goals. Source: Tabb Group Within this new, more widely dispersed market, meeting liquidity demand has become more challenging as the number of bonds issued has multiplied, driven by a persistent low-interest rate environment that’s irresistible to issuers and fuels exceptionally strong investor demand. Interest in fixed-income investing continues to rise. A multi-year streak of good performance and a post-crisis, risk-averse investor community with a large appetite for fixed-income assets has absorbed much of the bond inventory previously held by dealers and financial institutions. Over the past decade, inflows into bond funds have far outstripped those of equities. 2015 Billions $0 $100 $200$300$400 $500 Cumulative flows into bond mutual funds. $2,000 $1,500 Billions Risk, regulation, and technology are affecting the flow and sources of liquidity in the fixed-income marketplace. $1,000 $500 20072008200920102011201220132014 Source: ICI $0 Navigating new structural realities. Traders and investors have had to adapt to new realities, and to the disruptions and realignment in liquidity that have come with them. While RFQ remains the prevailing protocol, asset managers and other market participants are exploring alternatives—both directly and on electronic platforms. They’ve found that as the market has evolved, sources of liquidity, and opportunities to find it, have multiplied. Forced to innovate or be left behind, the industry has responded, replacing traditional manual systems with Order size still matters. An evolution toward more fully electronic workflows. automated workflows that integrate front-toback-office processing with the goal of increasing workflow and cost efficiency while reducing risk. The investment in technology and infrastructure driving these initiatives has given dealers and banks the ability to more effectively price and make markets in bonds, react more quickly to client inquiries, and adjust pricing more nimbly in an increasingly fast-paced fixed-income market. Execution protocols align with order size, but volume and activity have been shifting to smaller average size transactions. Blocks trade primarily via voice. Round lots are executed using a combination of RFQ and voice. Order size Odd lots are primarily executed using RFQ protocols, but have been steadily moving to a mix of RFQ and hit-and-lift on lit platforms with order books and market depth. Micro lots are executed electronically, primarily through lit markets on ATSs and electronic mediums. Tracking the proportion of trades >$5m as a percentage of total par bond trading volume. 80% While known counterparty relationships and the traditional RFQ will certainly remain important to the trading process, we are seeing a growing interest in the efficiencies and benefits found in electronification: greater price transparency, broader and more immediate access to available liquidity, and the opportunity for timely executions. Electronic platforms with live streaming prices offer the bond market more than just price discovery. Access to liquidity and prices are distributed more efficiently and across market participants. The platforms provide accessible and actionable liquidity, with the ability to execute more efficiently. As the industry continues to adapt to and adopt open electronic protocols, the future of bond trading begins to come into view. Institutional and retail investors will see the clear benefits: greater price discovery, less risk concentration, greater efficiency. Technology-savvy traders will drive an evolution toward more fully electronic workflows and a greater focus on transparency and best execution. What am I really paying? Understanding the best price, the true total cost, and the quality of execution on a particular trade depends upon several critical factors, including: Transaction Cost Analysis (TCA) usage 50%+ 2017 (projected) 38% 2014 • If it was done as a riskless principal trade (RPT) 26% 2013 • A clear understanding of what happened to the price within certain time parameters post-trade on TRACE. 19% 2012 • The level of pre-trade transparency • Whether you achieved the quote • Any associated markup or transaction fee 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 20072008 20092010 20112012 20132014 2015 Source: FINRA Source: Greenwich Associates A recent study by Greenwich Associates suggests that Transaction Cost Analysis (TCA) usage in fixed income is increasing rapidly, projecting that more than half of the fixed-income trader marketplace will be using TCA actively by 2017. Measuring the benefits of the new “liquidity-scape.” To succeed in this new market structure, firms need to leverage the long-established benefits of traditional relationship-based trading as well as the evolving benefits of real-time, “click-totrade” electronic execution. Clarity means knowing the objectives. Of course, it all depends on what’s being traded and the trader’s execution goals. Knowing where to go and who to call for a certain bond, to secure a large block, or make an urgent or complex trade, will always remain a valuable and necessary part of fixed-income trading strategies. The trade-offs between the need for execution certainty, the lot size of the order, and the relative liquidity of the bonds being traded all impact how the order routing decision is made. More and more, those decisions lead to electronic execution, and more of those electronic trades are being made on transparent, continually priced platforms that give participants immediate access to diverse sources of liquidity. As this trend continues, these platforms will continue to attract more participants—and more liquidity. The net effect of this shift is a more efficient fixed-income market, with wider participation, lower execution costs, increased opportunities for price discovery, and access to an expanding array of securities. The Execution Spectrum Market participants that embrace new workflows and understand the value of all available trading tools can expand their ability to find and act on liquidity opportunities across the execution spectrum. Traditional voice trading Multi-dealer platform Electronic trading venue RFQ RFQ + Matched $ $ $ ? ? ? $ $ $ $ $ $ $ ? ? ? $ ? $ ? ? ? $ $ ONE-TO-ONE ONE-TO-MANY, BILATERAL $ $ ALL-TO-ALL, ANONYMOUS $ $ $ ? $ Multi-dealer platform (RFQ+) Electronic trading venue (Matched) Trade control: Dealer Dealers Equal Price transparency: None Limited Complete Discretion: Take it or leave it Choose a price Decide your price Costs: Unknown or higher Unknown or lower Known and lower Typical order size: Large blocks Mixed Odd + Micro lots $ ? ? Traditional voice trading (RFQ) $ ? ? $ ? $ $ ? $ $ $ $ $ $ ? ? An established innovator. KCG BondPoint was created in 1999 as a “click-to-trade” aggregator of fixed-income liquidity. With deep roots in retail brokerage odd lot trading, our platform has grown steadily as the fixed-income market has evolved to provide access to a larger and more diverse group of market participants, including retail and institutional buy- and sell-side participants. We combine deep liquidity and smart technology to create a venue attractive not only to broker-dealers, but also to an increasing number of investor-side clients. 250,000 KCG BondPoint Average Daily Executable Offerings Offers 200,000 Bids 150,000 100,000 50,00 Q1 Q2 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015 Q3 Q4 0 Source: KCG 400+ financial firms 50,000+ unique securities 200K+ executable bids and offers A strong and growing platform. Open architecture to suit your workflow. BondPoint offers traders and investors access to a broad range of counterparties and executable prices. As a market data resource, it provides valuable strategic price discovery, including the ability to view full depth of market and source liquidity all in one location. We also provide clients with customized trading solutions and tools, including comprehensive front-end fixed-income market access and analytics, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency by automating trading workflows. BondPoint integrates seamlessly into proprietary and third-party OMS platforms, so you can access the liquidity you want the way you choose. Subscribers connect across the life of the trade to streamline pre- and post-trade processes and reporting. Fully automated and straight-through processing enabled, KCG BondPoint easily integrates with our clients’ existing systems, from inventory and order management to middleand back-office clearing. Find out more about how BondPoint can complement your trading program today, and become a valuable strategic tool as your fixed-income strategies continue to evolve. KCG Holdings, Inc. 800.764.7609 www.kcg.com/bondpoint ©2016 KCG Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. KCG BondPoint is an alternative trading system registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In the United States, products and services are offered through KCG Americas LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. KCG Americas LLC is an operating subsidiary of KCG Holdings, Inc. In Europe, products and services are offered by KCG Europe Limited (KCGE), which is authorized and regulated by the FCA. KCGE is an operating subsidiary of KCG Holdings, Inc. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of data contained herein. However, KCG cannot accept liability for any reliance placed on its use. The information in this material does not constitute legal or other advice and may change without notice.