2016: FiRST QUARTER MARKET REViEW

2016: First Quarter Market Review
S A L E S & VA C AT I O N R E N TA L S
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2016: First Quarter Market Review
S A L E S & VA C AT I O N R E N TA L S
1 NORTH BEACH STREET
POST OFFICE SQUARE
N A N T U C K E T, M A 0 2 5 5 4
S I A S C O N S E T, M A 0 2 5 6 4
508.228.2266
G R E AT P O I N T P R O P E R T I E S . C O M
508.257.6335
S C O N S E T R E A L E S TAT E . C O M
2016: First Quarter Market Review
S A L E S & VA C AT I O N R E N TA L S
1 NORTH BEACH STREET
POST OFFICE SQUARE
N A N T U C K E T, M A 0 2 5 5 4
S I A S C O N S E T, M A 0 2 5 6 4
508.228.2266
G R E AT P O I N T P R O P E R T I E S . C O M
508.257.6335
S C O N S E T R E A L E S TAT E . C O M
Market R eport • 1st Quarter 2016
Are 1st Quarter Sales an Indicator?
Change in Transaction Volume
Campared to Previous Year
Houses
10 v 09
11 v 10
100%
2%
29%
-35%
88%
-31%
61%
42%
-1%
33%
-4%
17%
-14%
??
as of 3.31 as of 12.31
Land
as of 3.31
as of 12.31
All Sales
as of 3.31
12 v 11 13 v 12
14 v 13 15 v 14 16 v 15
150%
0%
20%
150%
-7%
79%
-36%
42%
-18%
116%
14%
-4%
21%
??
100%
4% 31%-22% 73% -11% 22%
as of 12.3146% -3%44%-1%12%-7% ??
The chart above illustrates a consistent pattern that Nantucket real estate sales for a given year can be forecast based on the
first 3 months of activity. Except for 2011, which started out with a slightly positive sales increase from 2010 and ended up
slightly negative, every other year has followed suit based on the comparison of 1st quarter sales to the previous year. Typically the
trends moderated, except for 2012 when sales ended up 44% higher that 2011 yet were only up 31% for the first three months.
With that in mind, and sales up 22% over 2015, we should see another excellent sales year. At the current sales pace Nantucket
real estate sales are on an annualized pace of over $1.1 billion.
1st Quarter Sales
Transactions
House Sales as of 3.31
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016
15 v 16 Change
<1M
9 212737323024 32
33%
$1M - $1.99M
61513167111128 155%
$2M - $2.99M
7681018817 113%
$3M - $3.99M
211 33 7 133%
$4M - $5.99M
2522155 3 -40%
$6M - $9.99M11
1-50%
$10M>
11111 0%
Total
25505166438156 90
Land Sales as of 3.31
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2016
61%
15 v 16 Change
<$500K
2112848 5 -38%
$500K - $999K
43331104 -60%
$1M - $1.499M
1
1
3
5
2
4
100%
$1.5M - $1.99M
3
1
1
-100%
$2M - $2.99M
3
$3M>
Total
255615
14
25
16 -36%
Total dollar volume as of March 31, 2016:
• House sales - $164.89 million versus $123.74 million for 2015, a 33% increase.
• Land sales - $22.94 million versus $22.76 million for 2015.
1
1
0%
1
2
100%
A Few Comments
• As of April 25th there are only two single family homes that are not restricted covenant properties
for sale under $700,000.
• As of March 31, 2010 there were 147 homes priced under $1,000,000. As of March 31, 2016 there were
only 28. Of those 28 only 11 are single-family homes.
• As of April 25 the Town has sold 8 covenant homes in Sachem Path. This trend will continue as the Town
finishes more homes in this subdivision.
• Annual house sales under $3,000,000 as a percentage of total house sales:
200920102011 2012 201320142015
86%82%90%
88% 87%84%83%
• As of March 31, 2016 there have been 77 house transactions under $3,000,000, or 86% of the total, as compared
to 13 house sales over $3,000,000. The entire increase in sales volume over 2015 was below $3,000,000.
Over $3,000,000 saw the same number of transactions, 13, as in 2015.
• Annual land sales under $1,500,000 as a percentage of total land sales:
200920102011 2012 201320142015
84%82%68% 85% 89%75%86%
• As of March 31, 2016 there have been 13 land sales under $1,500,000 out of 16 total sales, representing
81% of the total land sales. After spiking in 2015, land sales seem to have returned to the trends established in
2013 and 2014 with 16 total sales.
An Interesting Trend
Both the graphs above show a consistent pattern of sales based on a 2 year moving average. Starting in 2010 sales
transactions and dollar volume have alternated above and slightly below the trend line. If this trend continues, 2016 will
be a stronger sales year than 2015 and that has been born out already by the solid 1st quarter sales.
1st Quarter - Top 10 Sales 2016
Selling Price
Location
Beds
Baths
Lot Size
$13,300,000 $7,300,000 $6,750,000 $5,200,000 $4,360,000 $4,010,000 $3,900,000 $3,597,000 $3,450,000 $3,250,000 Monomoy
Quidnet
Tom Nevers
Sconset
Shimmo
Quidnet
Surfside
Madequecham
Cliff
West of Town
7
5
6
5
5
4
6
6
4
5
6
5.5
5.5
5+
5.5
4.5
5+
7.5
5.5
4.5
1.20
2.78
5.23
0.26
1.06
0.98
1.21
2.32
0.28
1.96
Total House
Address
Houses
26 Willard Street 19 East Lincoln Avenue
23 Walsh Street
Houses
6 Mioxes Way
Houses
32 Crooked Lane
6 North Star Lane
17 Wannacomet Road
2 Kings Way
Houses
15 Hawthorne Lane
128 Hummock Pond Road
Houses
33 & 35 Wigwam Road
Houses
9 Essex Road # C
13 Keel Lane
3 Swayzes Drive
5 Pond View Drive
12 Ellens Way
138 Miacomet Road
Selling Price
Beds
Baths
and
Lot Size
3
4
4
3
3
4.5
0.07
0.14
0.12
4
2
0.27
5
2
4
4
4
2
3.5
5.5
0.57
0.42
0.92
0.28
Cisco
$905,000
Cliff
$1,625,000
$2,875,000
$3,230,000 $3,450,000
Hummock Pond
$1,295,000 $1,300,000 Listed and Sold By Great Point Properties
Land Sales 2016
Address
3
3
2.5
1
0.87
2.53
Houses
16E Sparks Avenue $415,000 7A Park Circle # A
$495,000 20 Park Circle # A
$512,000 2B Park Circle $530,000 19B Park Circle $535,000 20B Park Circle $535,000 3A Witherspoon Drive # 603-1
5C Pine Tree Road # 2
$590,000 9 Nobadeer Way
$600,000 9 Tashama Lane
$625,000 41 Macy Lane
$705,000 9 Teasdale Circle # 3 & 4
$850,000 47 Fairgrounds Road
$1,020,000 8 Nobadeer Avenue
$1,265,000 Land
39 Tomahawk
14 Tomahawk Road
5E Bartlett Road
29 Youngs Way
Madaket
$3,597,000 Selling Price
Beds
Baths
Lot Size
Mid Island
Brant Point
$2,350,000 $2,838,000 $3,002,000 Sold by Great Point Properties
Listed and Sold by Great Point Properties
6
7.5
2.32
Miacomet
$440,000 2.5
$767,000 2
$1,700,000 3.5
$1,895,000 2
$2,685,000 4
4.5
$2,750,000 4
2.5
0.35
0.45
1.85
0.25
1.84
Houses
5 Chatham Road
68 & 72 Monomoy Road
Houses
73 Goldfinch Drive
7 Curlew Court
Houses
6 Village Way
Houses
17 Bassett Road
1
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
2
4
2
1.5
2
2
2.5
2.5
2.5
4
3
1
2
2
1.5
3.5
1
$230,000 $275,000 $400,000 $445,000 0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.34
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.42
0.46
0.11
0.11
0.17
0.25
Monomoy
$1,999,000 $13,300,000 4
7
4+
6
0.46
1.20
3
4
2
3.5
0.13
0.18
2
1
0.12
3
1
0.12
Naushop
$812,000 $1,055,000 Pocomo
$862,500 Quaise
$850,000 5
Total House
Address
Houses
30 Quidnet Path
3 Beacon Lane
Houses
5 North Road
39 Sankaty Road
36 Baxter Road
Land
7 Westerwick Drive
Houses
12 Pippens Way
Houses
18 Equator Drive
Houses
40 Squam Road
1.35
Houses
15 Nanina Drive
16 Nanina Drive
24 Nanina Drive
18 Nanina Drive
20 Nanina Drive
14 Nanina Drive
22 Nanina Drive
29A South Shore Rd # A
36 Pochick Avenue
6 South Shore Road
4 Monohansett Road
6 Pochick Avenue
Land
31 Daffodil Lane
148.5 Surfside Road
57 Pochick Avenue
10 Uncatena Street
29 Nonantum Avenue
Houses
20 Arlington Avenue
13 Parson Lane
20 Wanoma Way
100 Tom Nevers Road
Land
4 Mayhew Road
Selling Price
Beds
Baths
and
Lot Size
Quidnet
$4,010,000 $7,300,000 4
5
4.5
5.5
0.98
2.78
1.5
4.5
5+
0.13
0.62
0.26
Sconset
$1,000,000 $3,150,000 $5,200,000 $700,000 0.50
Shimmo
$4,360,000 5
5.5
1.06
3
2
0.46
4
2
South of Town
$900,000 Squam
$1,275,000 Surfside
$224,000 $265,000 $304,000 $304,000 $353,000 $515,000 $515,000 $695,000 $800,000 $2,209,000 $2,495,000 $3,900,000 1
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
3
6
6
6
1
1.5
2
1.5
1.5
2
1.5
3
2
6+
4.5
5+
$410,000 $500,000 $1,200,000 $1,375,000 $6,800,000 0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.19
0.96
0.39
1.89
1.21
0.46
0.76
0.92
0.92
0.89
Tom Nevers
$823,500 $1,075,000 $2,300,000 $6,750,000 3
4
3
6
3
2.5
2.5
5.5
$1,225,000 0.18
3.01
0.33
5.23
1.49
Land Sales 2016
Address
Selling Price
Beds
Baths
Town
Houses
17 Washington Street
9 West York Lane
15 Meader Street # B
15 Meader Street # A
1A Spring Street
15 Meader Street # D
9 Beaver Street
30 Pleasant Street
11 Weymouth Street
15 Meader Street # C
5 Chester Street
29 & 31 North Liberty Street
45 A-B Pleasant Street
39B Milk Street
153 Main Street (Portion)
37 Pleasant Street
19 Union Street
27 Pine Street
14 Liberty Street
53 West Chester Street
8 Fair Street
23A Union Street
7 Judith Chase Lane
$800,000 $908,500 $1,195,000 $1,250,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,412,500 $1,450,000 $1,485,000 $1,495,000 $1,600,000 $1,700,000 $1,751,250 $1,950,000 $2,000,000 $2,050,000 $2,100,000 $2,140,000 $2,400,000 $2,450,000 $2,525,000 $2,600,000 $2,725,000 Land
Lot 12 Woodland Hill
11 R Union Street
29C Old North Wharf
$832,000 $1,100,000 $4,750,000 Houses
4 Dunham Road
Houses
18 Essex Road
41 Dukes Road
45A Vestal Street
2 Wannacomet Road
Land
63 Madaket Road
Lot Size
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
4
3
2
4
4
9
5
8
4
5
5
6
4
5
5
5
1.5
1
1
1
1
2
3
2
2
2
3.5
2
8.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
5.5
4.5
5.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
3
0.05
0.11
0.17
0.17
0.06
0.17
0.09
0.06
0.08
0.17
0.09
0.22
0.13
0.12
0.24
0.19
0.12
0.12
0.06
0.1594
0.10
0.12
0.29
0.18
0.05
0.00
Tuckernuck
$1,550,000 1
1
6.33
4
4
4
5
2
4.5
4.5
4.5
0.18
0.46
0.23
1.96
West of Town
$679,000 $1,256,000 $2,250,000 $3,250,000 $2,150,000 18.28
Bill Liddle
Greg McKechnie
Edward Sanford
Nicole Bousquet
Tracy Cullinane
Michele Lindstedt
Stuart Reid
Erin Carson
Liz Finlay
Carl Lindvall
Amy Sanford
Bernie Coffin
Laura Fletcher
Sarah Maneikis
Henry Sanford
Carol Coffin
Jim Garrels
Nichole Marks
Katie Seholm
Alexa Coleman
Kenny Hilbig
Paula McAuley
Amanda Tosch
Darcy Creech
Dawn Holdgate
Liza McKenney
Debbie Willett
Debbi Deeley Culbertson
Barbara Joyce
Sam Parsons
Phil Witte
S A L E S & VA C AT I O N R E N TA L S
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508.228.2266
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Bill Liddle
Greg McKechnie
Edward Sanford
Nicole Bousquet
Tracy Cullinane
Michele Lindstedt
Stuart Reid
Erin Carson
Liz Finlay
Carl Lindvall
Amy Sanford
Bernie Coffin
Laura Fletcher
Sarah Maneikis
Henry Sanford
Carol Coffin
Jim Garrels
Nichole Marks
Katie Seholm
Alexa Coleman
Kenny Hilbig
Paula McAuley
Amanda Tosch
Darcy Creech
Dawn Holdgate
Liza McKenney
Debbie Willett
Debbi Deeley Culbertson
Barbara Joyce
Sam Parsons
Phil Witte
S A L E S & VA C AT I O N R E N TA L S
1 NORTH BEACH STREET
POST OFFICE SQUARE
N A N T U C K E T, M A 0 2 5 5 4
S I A S C O N S E T, M A 0 2 5 6 4
508.228.2266
G R E AT P O I N T P R O P E R T I E S . C O M
508.257.6335
S C O N S E T R E A L E S TAT E . C O M