The Changing Arctic Ocean Basin Beyond Sovereignty Infrastructure

Transcription

The Changing Arctic Ocean Basin
Beyond Sovereignty Infrastructure
A Realistic View
Presented by K Joseph Spears
October 14, 2011
Vancouver, British Columbia
A Changing Arctic Ocean Basin-Sustainable
Shipping Conference 2011
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Beyond Sovereignty Infrastructure-A Realistic View
A
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Predicting a Future Arctic Ocean
Rapidly changing conditions in the Arctic Ocean Basin
driven by global warming will impact international
shipping and the global economy.
The changing and warming Arctic will impact the global
trade system. The market responses and governance
normally follows.
In a time of change there can be great opportunities and
this can have a positive impact on the world community.
Canada is working hard to seize the opportunities.
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P4 the Arctic
This presentation equally been have been entitled
PUTIN
PIRATES
PENGUINS
PETROL (P4)
I want to give a quick overview of the Big Picture and
Canada is doing and then some thoughts on the
Future.
We need to get this right.
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Horizon Scanning in the Arctic Ocean
Basin
Horizon scanning may be defined as:
“the systematic examination of potential threats,
opportunities and likely future developments which are at
the margins of current thinking and planning. nn
Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected
issues, as well as persistent problems or trends.
Overall, horizon scanning is intended to improve the
robustness of Defra’s policies and evidence base”.
UK government
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The Traditional View of the Arctic
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RCMP Patrol Vessel St Roch was an
early test bed for sovereignty
infrastructure
The vessel is at the
Museum
Vancouver Maritime
Museum
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What the Climate Models aren’t
Predicting
is what is really Happening-Reality
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What the Historical Record Tells Us is
Times are a Changing and there is no
guide.
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Looking at the Big and Uncertain
Picture in the Arctic Ocean Basin
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Who is doing what in the AOB
Arctic 5 Nations- Canada, US, Russia, Norway
and Denmark
Arctic Council
Inuit Circumpolar Conference
NATO
EU
Environmental NGOs
Others-China, Korea
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A Warming Arctic—General Trends
The sea-ice extent is melting earlier
The ice is thinner
There is less multi-year
Freeze-Up is coming later
There is more freshwater and an impact on ocean
circulation
Premafrost is melting and methane CH4 is releasing.
The arctic waters at depth are warming
No one knows the various feedback loops
Coastline impacts and sea-level rise
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Predicting the Future on a warming
Planet -- Is it Possible or Wise
We need to think Black Swans—a flock
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Who is Concerned
Many groups are looking at the subject and it is
growing daily.
1. NOAA has released a study
2. The US Navy has set up an Arctic Taskforce
3. The EU has been studying the issues
4. China and other Indo-Pacific countries are
looking at the Region
5. Various Environmental NGOs
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Canada’s Arctic Claim
Canada’s ability to regulate international shipping in its
Northwest Passage is not internationally accepted.
Canada has take strong steps to regulate in transit
international shipping through a variety of federal
government functions making use of traditional Inuit
knowledge coupled with leading edge technology.
This is the cornerstone of Canada’s position. Canada’s
ability to enforce its sovereign rights.
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Canada’s Arctic Waters
Canada’s Arctic Claims are not internationally
recognized by other states. The U.S. view the
Northwest Passage as an international strait.
This will have an impact on shipping passing
through and in Canadian waters.
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International Legal Status-Does it
matter
There are boundary disputes
Status of the NE Sea Route Russia
Status of the NW Passage Canada
Waters of the Doughnut Hole Arctic Ocean Basin
There is also the LOSC Article 76 continental shelf claim
being advanced by the coastal state.
 Regulation of Shipping Activities in the coastal waters
given the unique environment will become increasing
important.
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Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention
Act
The cornerstone of Canadian
jurisdiction is the Arctic
Waters Pollution Prevention
Act.
It was radical at the time,
1970, but Article 234 of the
Law of the Sea Convention
supports Canada’s position
to act strongly.
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Northwest Passage
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A Rich Untouched Ecosystem
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Actual Shipping Routes
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Seabird Colonies are Large and are
found near shipping Routes
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The First Canadians-The Inuit Are
Key
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In the Arctic,Simple systems work as
do hip waders.
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The Canadian Rangers are Key
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Ice Free does not mean “No Ice”
One Example
East Coast Icebergs
By 15 March 2008, 249 icebergs had drifted south
of 48N.
By 28 March this had increased to 739.
Just one month into the 2008 season there have
already had more icebergs threaten mariners
(and oil rigs) near the Grand Banks than from
2004-2007 combined.
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Canada as a Coastal StateGovernance
Under the Law of the Sea
Convention, Canada has
international legal
obligations to protect the
marine environment. This is
not new but the Arctic
presents special challenges.
One of them is a robust
salvage response capability.
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The North West Passage
Canada’s Next Panama Canal or
is it
The North West Passage in 2007 and 2008
was ice free and navigable its entire
length. The North West Passage saves
four thousand (4000) nautical miles on a
voyage from North Europe to the Far East.
What does this mean for Canada’s west
coast.
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Heavy Icebreaker
Length: 120 m
Power: 29,400 kw
Speed: 19 knots
LOUIS S. ST-LAURENT
Conference
2011 Gulf and Arctic
Icebreaking Shipping
in most
severe
conditions.
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Icebreaking Services
Ice Routing and Information Services
Ice Reconnaissance:
 undertaking ice reconnaissance by helicopter;
 partnership with CIS for ice information
Managing Ice Operations Centres:
 client consultation
 monitoring shipping in ice;
 routing vessels safely through or around ice;
 providing ice information to clients;
 tasking icebreakers; and
 assisting Transport Canada with


Winter Ice Control Zones
Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System
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Icebreaker Fleet
One Heavy Icebreaker
Five Medium Icebreakers
Ten Light Icebreakers
One Ice Strengthened Vessel
Two Air Cushion Vehicles
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Canada’s Polar Icebreaker
CCG John G. Diefenbaker
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Polar Icebreaker Project Status
Unique Vessel
Non Nuclear
Design RFP
8 Month Operation
Multi-Roles
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Icebreaking Services
Ice Routing and Information Services
Ice Reconnaissance:
 undertaking ice reconnaissance by helicopter;
 partnership with CIS for ice information
Managing Ice Operations Centres:
 client consultation
 monitoring shipping in ice;
 routing vessels safely through or around ice;
 providing ice information to clients;
 tasking icebreakers; and
 assisting Transport Canada with


Winter Ice Control Zones
Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System
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Maritime Air
is Needed Early and Often in the
Arctic
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Captain Stephen Brown Canada was
watching. You did good.*
*407 LRP Sqn RCAF 19 Wing Comox, BC
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Marine SAR and the Arctic Ocean
Arctic Council announces SAR
agreement
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The US Navy is Concerned
about changes in the Arctic Ocean
The Chief of Naval Operations of the US Navy has
taken the steps to look at all aspects of climate
change and has tasked the Oceanographer of
the navy to look at all aspects of the Arctic--Task
Force Climate Change has been set up
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There are lots of activity in the region
.
Off West Greenland during the 2008 season
there will be 75 Major Cruise ship visits and
150,000 cruise ship passengers.
Over 300 polar flights cross Canadian Arctic
airspace.
The Danish Rear Admiral responsible for
Greenland made it clear he had little SAR
capability
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Arctic Shipping Drivers
There are a number of factors driving arctic shipping:
1. Changing Sea-Ice Conditions
2. Increasing Northern populations-resupply
3. International in transit shipping
4. Increased natural resource development
5. Hydrocarbon exploration under an extended
Continental shelf
6. Increased governmental marine activity
7. Ecotourism
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International Cruise ship Activity
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Arctic Shipping
Domestic Resupply
Resource Development
Fishing is increasing
Marine Ecotourism
Pioneering Routes—NE and NW passage
Research
Mineral Exploration
Defense and Security Surface and Subsurface
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Resource development
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Fortune, August 20, 2007
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How Canada looks from the AOB
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Shipping is Key to Canada’s Arctic
Arctic shipping is crucial for the delivery
of supplies to northern Canadian
communities, to support oil and gas
exploration in the Beaufort Sea and Arctic
mining activity.
The issue that grabs Canada’s attention is
international marine traffic that could
take advantage to navigate the North
West Passage. It may have no
connection to Canada.
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Existing Port Infrastructure
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NWP-A Commercial Route?
Although the voyage through the North
West Passage in 1969 of the US oil tanker
Manhatten, assisted by the Canadian
icebreaker John A. MacDonald, grabbed
international headlines, there is presently
no regular commercial traffic through the
Northwest Passage.
In recent years there were 60 transits
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“North-East Passage eyed as rival to
Suez Canal”
This headline applies to the NW Passage or even
an over the Top Trans Polar route.
“The result may be a seismic shift in shipping
patterns that have changed little since the
opening of the Suez and Panama canals a
century ago.”
Julius Strauss
The Daily Telegraph, March 4, 2004
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Transpolar Route
It is possible with ship design to develop ice class
cargo vessels that could go over the top and
avoid either the North East Passage or the North
West Passage.
It has been reported that China is looking at this
option. Transshipment ports would be built in
Iceland and near the Bering Straits.
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Arctic Transshipment
As the world economy goes through massive
changes and India and China grow, we could
arctic transshipment using ice classed cargo
vessels that would use an over the top route
from SE Asia to northern Europe with
transshipment in Iceland or other northern
location.
China is already looking at Iceland
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Canada workings with its Neighbour
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Cooperation in the Arctic is Key
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Bergy Bits can be a problem
Reduta Ordona in drydock after striking an iceberg (July, 1996)
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Yes, the concept includes plane
washing.
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The Good News
Shipping has constantly embraced change
Marine Underwriters will always look at new risks
Marine Technology and ship design is evolving
Governance is evolving
New business opportunities are arising
Potential new trades routes will require new
terminals
Perhaps fuel efficient
We can get this right.
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Conclusion
The story has just begun. It is being written as we
speak. The changes in sea-ice are
unprecedented and stunning.
The perception of the Arctic is changing as
rapidly as sea-ice.
International shipping and resource development
will be developed driven by global economic
factors and will impact world trade.
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We need to change the Way we look
at the Arctic Ocean Basin
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The Future- “Use it or Lose It”
A changing Arctic Ocean is a great opportunity
to get sustainable shipping right.
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The Changing Arctic Ocean Basin Beyond Sovereignty Infrastructure

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