Assessing Team Strategy using Spatiotemporal

Transcription

Assessing Team Strategy using Spatiotemporal
Assessing Team Strategy using Spatiotemporal Data
Patrick Lucey
Dean Oliver
Disney Research
Pittsburgh, PA, USA
ESPN
Bristol, CT, USA
[email protected]
[email protected]
Peter Carr
Joe Roth
Iain Matthews
Disney Research
Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Disney Research
Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Disney Research
Pittsburgh, PA, USA
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
ABSTRACT
The Moneyball [14] revolution coincided with a shift in the
way professional sporting organizations handle and utilize
data in terms of decision making processes. Due to the demand for better sports analytics and the improvement in
sensor technology, there has been a plethora of ball and
player tracking information generated within professional
sports for analytical purposes. However, due to the continuous nature of the data and the lack of associated high-8.
level labels to describe it - this rich set of information has[1]
had very limited use especially in the analysis of a team’s
tactics and strategy. In this paper, we give an overview of[2]
the types of analysis currently performed mostly with handlabeled event data and highlight the problems associated
with the influx of spatiotemporal data. By way of exam-[3]
ple, we present an approach which uses an entire season of
ball tracking data from the English Premier League (20102011 season) to reinforce the common held belief that teams[4]
should aim to “win home games and draw away ones”. We
do this by: i) forming a representation of team behavior by
chunking the incoming spatiotemporal signal into a series
of quantized bins, and ii) generate an expectation model of[5]
team behavior based on a code-book of past performances.
We show that home advantage in soccer is partly due to the
conservative strategy of the away team. We also show that[6]
our approach can flag anomalous team behavior which has
many potential applications.
[7]
Categories and Subject Descriptors
[8]
H.4 [Information Systems Applications]: Miscellaneous;[9]
I.2.6 [Learning]: General
Keywords
Sports Analytics; Spatiotemporal Data; Representation
[10]
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[11]
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[12]
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KDD’13, August 11–14, 2013, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
[13]
Copyright is held by the owner/author(s). Publication rights licensed to ACM.
Copyright 2013 ACM 978-1-4503-2174-7/13/08 ...$15.00.
[14]
Canada
9(3)
13
3
1
38%
3
0
4
USA
12(4)
11
8
4
62%
1
0
3
In CVPR, 2009.
[16] W. Lu, J. Ting, K. Murphy, and
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Random Fields. In CVPR, 2011.
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[18] L. Madden. NFL to Follow Army
(a)
(b)Sensors in Attempt to Prevent H
www.forbes.com/sites/lancema
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INTRODUCTION
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Multi-Modal Densities on Discriminative Temporal
Interaction Manifold for Group Activity Recognition.
in professional leagues [9, 26, 29, 32]1 - to determine where
and how events happen. Even though there is potentially
an enormous amount of hidden team behavioral information
to mine from such sources, due to the sheer volume as well
as the noisy and variable length of the data, methods which
can adequately represent team behaviors are yet to be developed. The value of this data is limited as little analysis can
be conducted. What compounds the difficulty of this task
is the low-scoring and/or continuous nature of many team
sports (e.g. soccer, hockey, basketball) which makes it very
hard to associate segments of play with high-level behaviors
(e.g. tactics, strategy, style, system, formations). Without
these labels, which essentially give the game context, inferring team strategy or behavior is impossible as there are no
factors to condition against (see Figure 1(b)).
Due to these complexities, there has been no effective
method of utilizing spatiotemporal data in continuous sports.
Having suitable methods which can first develop suitable
representations from imperfect (e.g. noisy or impartial) data,
and then learn team behaviors in an unsupervised or semisupervised manner, as well as recognize and predict future
behaviors would greatly enhance decision making in all areas of the sporting landscape (e.g. coaching, broadcasting,
fantasy-games, video games, betting etc.). We call this the
emerging field of Sports Spatiotemporal Analytics - and we
show an example of this new area of analytics by comparing the strategies of home and away teams in the English
Premier League using ball tracking data.
2.
RELATED WORK
The use of automatic sports analysis systems have recently graduated from the virtual to the real-world. This
is due in part to the popularity of live-sport, the amount
of live-sport being broadcasted, the proliferation of mobile
devices, the rise of second-screen viewing, the amount of
data/statistics being generated for sports, and demand for
in-depth reporting and analysis of sport. Systems which use
match statistics to automatically generate narratives have
already been deployed [2, 33]. Although impressive, these
solutions give a low-level description of match statistics and
notable individual performances without any tactical analysis about factors which contributed to the result. In tennis, IBM Slamtracker [10] provides player analysis by finding
patterns that characterize the best chance a player has to
beat another player from an enormous amount of event labeled data - although no spatiotemporal data (i.e. player or
ball tracking information) has been used in their analysis
yet.
Spatiotemporal data has been used extensively in the visualization of sports action. Examples include vision-based
systems which track baseball pitches for Major League Baseball [31], and ball and players in basketball and soccer [29,
32]. Hawk-Eye deploy vision-based systems which track the
ball in tennis and cricket, and is often used to aid in the
officiating of these matches in addition to providing visu1
As nearly all professional leagues currently forbid the use of
wearable sensors on players, unobtrusive data capture methods such as vision-based systems or armies of human annotators are used to provide player and ball tracking information.
However, this restriction may change soon as monitoring the
health and well-being of players has attracted significant interest lately, especially for concussions in American Football [19], as well as heart issues in soccer [3].
alizations for the television broadcasters [9]. Partial data
sources normally generated by human annotators such as
shot-charts in basketball and ice-hockey are often used for
analysis [23], as well as passing and shot charts in soccer [26]. Recently, ESPN developed a new quarterback rating in American Football called “TotalQBR” [25] which assigns credit or blame to the quarterback depending on a host
of factors such as pass or catch quality, importance in the
match, pass thrown under pressure or not. As these factors
are quite subjective, annotators who are reliable in labeling such variables are used. In terms of strategic analysis,
zonalmarking.net [37] describes a soccer match from a tactical and formation point of view. This approach is very
qualitative and is based solely on the opinion of the analyst.
As the problem of fully automatic multi-agent tracking
from vision-based systems is still an open one, most academic research has centered on the tracking problem [1, 5,
17,27]. The lack of fully automated tracking approaches has
limited team behavioral research to works on limited size
datasets. The first work which looked at using spatiotemporal data for team behavior analysis was conducted over 10
years ago by Intille and Bobick [12]. In this seminal work,
the authors used a probabilistic model to recognize a single
football play from hand annotated player trajectories. Since
then, multiple approaches have centered on recognizing football plays [15, 16, 30, 34], but only on a very small number of
plays (i.e. 50-100). For soccer, Kim et al. [13] used the global
motion of all players in a soccer match to predict where the
play will evolve in the short-term. Beetz et al. [4] proposed
a system which aims to track player and ball positions via
a vision system for the use of automatic analysis of soccer
matches. In basketball, Perse et al. [28] used trajectories of
player movement to recognize three types of team offensive
patterns. Morariu and Davis [21] integrated interval-based
temporal reasoning with probabilistic logical inference to
recognize events in one-on-one basketball. Hervieu et al. [11]
also used player trajectories to recognize low-level team activities using a hierarchical parallel semi-Markov model. In
addition to these works, plenty of work has centered on analyzing broadcast footage of sports for action, activity and
highlight detection [8, 36]2 . The lack of extensive tracking
data to adequately train models has limited the success of
the above research.
It is clear from the overview given above, that there exists a major disparity in resources between industry and
academia to deal with this problem domain. Sporting organizations receive large volumes of spatiotemporal data from
third-party vendors but often lack the computational skills
or resources to make use of it. Research groups on the otherhand, have the necessary analysis tools can not access these
large data repositories due to the proprietary nature of commercial tracking systems. Recently however, due to the potential payoff, some industry groups are investing in analytical people with these skill sets, or have teamed up with
research groups to help facilitate a solution. The release of
STATS Sports VU data [32] to some research groups has
enabled interesting analysis of shots and rebounding in the
NBA [7, 20]. In tennis, Wei et al. [35] used ball and player
tracking information to predict shots using data from the
2012 Australian Open. For soccer, researchers have charac2
These works only capture a portion of the field, making
group analysis very difficult as all active players are rarely
present in the all frames.
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Team
Man Utd
Chelsea
Man City
Arsenal
Tottenham
Liverpool
Everton
Fulham
Aston Villa
Sunderland
West Brom
Newcastle
Stoke City
Bolton
Blackburn
Wigan
Wolves
Birmingham
Blackpool
West Ham
SUM
AVG(per game)
W
18
14
13
11
9
12
9
8
8
7
8
6
10
10
7
5
8
6
5
5
179
0.47
D
1
3
4
4
9
4
7
7
7
5
6
8
4
5
7
8
4
8
5
5
111
0.29
L
0
2
2
4
1
3
3
4
4
7
5
5
5
4
5
6
7
5
9
9
90
0.24
Home
P
GF
55
49
45
39
43
34
37
33
36
30
40
37
34
31
31
30
31
26
26
25
30
30
26
41
34
31
35
34
28
22
23
22
28
30
26
19
20
30
20
24
648
617
1.71
1.62
SF
347
379
306
350
383
319
321
307
273
287
329
300
298
311
254
290
256
231
296
325
6162
16.2
GA
12
13
12
15
19
14
23
23
19
27
30
27
18
24
16
34
30
22
37
31
446
1.17
SA
191
233
216
154
228
220
227
262
263
243
237
250
256
256
259
227
266
324
297
317
4926
13.0
W
5
7
8
8
7
5
4
3
4
5
4
5
3
2
4
4
3
2
5
2
90
0.24
D
10
5
4
7
5
3
8
9
5
6
5
5
3
5
3
7
3
7
4
7
111
0.29
L
4
7
7
4
7
11
7
7
10
8
10
9
13
12
12
8
13
10
10
10
179
0.47
Away
P
GF
25
29
26
30
28
26
31
39
26
25
18
22
20
20
18
19
17
22
21
20
17
26
20
15
12
15
11
18
15
24
19
18
12
16
13
18
19
25
13
19
381
446
1.00
1.17
SF
272
367
240
305
274
266
259
245
233
246
273
209
186
261
200
221
205
174
240
250
4926
13.0
GA
25
20
21
28
27
30
22
20
40
29
41
30
30
32
43
27
36
36
41
39
617
1.62
SA
271
208
298
251
339
270
279
271
340
311
297
256
294
346
360
284
306
362
441
378
6162
16.2
Table 1: Table showing the statistics for the home and away performances for each team in the 2010 EPL
season: (left columns) home matches (right columns) away columns (Key: W = wins, D = draws, L = losses,
P = points (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss), GF = goals for, SF = shots for, GA = goals against,
SA = shots against).
terized team behaviors in the English Premier League using
ball-motion information across an entire season using OPTA
data [18]. In this paper, we extend this method to explain
that the home advantage in soccer is due to the conservative
strategy that away teams use (or more aggressive approach
of the home team) which reinforces the commonly held belief that teams aim to win their home games and draw their
away ones.
3.
CASE STUDY:
HOME ADVANTAGE IN SOCCER
3.1
“Win at Home and Draw Away”
In a recent book [22], Moskowitz and Wertheim highlight
that the home advantage exists in all professional sports (i.e.
teams win more at home than away). The authors hypothesized that referees play a significant role by giving home
teams favorable calls at critical moments. They then quantitatively showed this in baseball through the use of pitch
tracking data. For soccer, hand-labeled event statistics such
as the amount of injury time, number of yellow cards and
number of penalties awarded to reinforce their hypothesis.
As soccer is a very tactical game, we hypothesize that the
strategy of the home and away teams also plays a role in
explaining the home advantage.
A great case study of home advantage is the 2010-2011
English Premier League soccer season. In that season, the
home team earned an average 1.71 points out of a total 3
points per match. This is in stark contrast with the away
team, which earned only 1.00 points per game: a rather
large discrepancy, especially considering that teams play every other team both at home and away so that any talent
disparities apply to both home and away averages. In terms
of shooting and passing proficiency, there was no significant difference between teams at home and away (10.01%
vs 9.05% for shooting and 73.46% vs 72.99% for passing see the bottom row in Table 1).
However, there is a large difference between the amount of
shots (16.2 vs 13.0) and goals scored (1.62 vs 1.17) at home
and away. An illuminating example is the league champions
for that season, Manchester United (see top row in Table 1).
At home, they were unbeaten (winning 18 and drawing 1),
but away from home they only won 5 games, drew 10 and
lost 4. The telling statistic is that at home they scored 49
goals from 347 shots, compared to only 29 goals from 272
shots away from home. Comparatively, the opposition at
home games only scored a paltry 12 goals from 191 shots
while at away games they scored 25 goals from 271 shots.
In soccer, there is the commonly held belief that team should
aim to win their home games and draw their away ones. If
you skim down Table 1, you will find that: i) all teams won
more home games (except for Blackpool who won the same
amount), ii) all teams score more goals at home (except Arsenal and Blackburn), iii) all teams had more shots at home
compared to away, and iv) all teams gained more points at
home. These event statistics tell us what has occurred, in
the rest of the paper we use spatiotemporal data to help
explain where and why this occurred. Before we detail the
method, we first describe the data.
3.2
Ball Tracking and Event Data
Due to the difficulty associated with accurately tracking
players and the ball, data containing this information is still
scarce. Most of the data collected is via an army of human
annotators who label all actions that occur around the ball
- which they call ball actions. The F24 soccer data feed collected for the English Premier League (EPL) by Opta [26]
is a good example of this. The F24 data is a time coded
feed that lists all player action events within the game with
a player, team, event type, minute and second for each action. Each event has a series of qualifiers describing it. This
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7
66
(1) Manchester United
(2) Chelsea
(3) Manchester City
(4) Arsenal
(5) Tottenham
55
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(6) Liverpool
(7) Everton
(8) Fulham
(9) Aston Villa
(10) Sunderland
33
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(11) West Bromwich Albion
(12) Newcastle
(13) Stoke City
(14) Bolton
(15) Blackburn
11
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(16) Wigan
(17) Wolverhamption
(18) Birmingham City
(19) Blackpool
(20) West Ham United
Figure 4: The mean entropy maps for each of the twenty English Premier League teams characterizing their
ball movement patterns. The maps have been normalized for teams attacking from left to right. The bright
red refers to high entropy scores (i.e. high variability) and the blue areas refer to low entropy scores (i.e very
predictable behavior).
5.
5.1
STRATEGY ANALYSIS
Discriminating Team Behavior
Evaluating team strategy is a very difficult task. The major hurdle to overcome is the absence of strategy labels. But
given we know the team identity, and assuming that teams
exhibit similar behaviors over time, we can treat the task
as an identification problem. We can do this by answering
the question: using only ball movement information, can we
accurately identify the most likely team?
We model team behavior using a codebook of past performances. If a team’s behavior is consistent, then previous
matches will be a good predictor of future performances. For
the experiments, we used 380 games of the season and used a
leave-one-out cross validation strategy to maximize training
and testing data. Before we investigate the difference between home and away performances, we first need to obtain
the best possible representation. To evaluate this, we wanted
to see how effective event-labeled data was in discriminating
between different teams, and if having knowledge of where
teams operate could boost the discriminating power.
To conduct the experiments, we compared our occupancy
representation, to twenty-three match statistics currently
used in analysis (e.g. passes, shots, tackles, fouls, aerials,
possession, time- in-play etc.). We also combined the two
50
40
30
20
10
0
% Teams Correctly Identified
Statistics
Occ Maps
Combined
Figure 5: The identification rate for correctly identifying home performances using event-labeled data
(i.e. no location information), occupancy maps (i.e.
no event information, just location), and a combination of the two.
inputs by concatenating the feature vectors. For classification, we used a k-Nearest Neighbor approach (with k = 30)
and all experiments were conducted using D = 10 × 8
spatial areas (heuristically, we found those values of k and
D gave the best performance). To reduce the dimensionality
but maintain class separability for the spatiotemporal representation and the combined representation, we used linear
discriminant analysis (LDA). We used the number of teams
1
Actual Team Ranking
20
0
1
Predicted Team Ranking
(a) Home vs Home
20
Figure 6: Confusion matrices of the team identification experiments using the combined representation.
as classes (C = 20), which resulted in a C − 1 = 19 dimensional input feature, y = WT x, where W can be found via
solving
WΣb W
)
(1)
WΣw W
where Σb and Σw are the between-scatter and within-scatter
matrices respectively. To test the various representations,
only identity experiments on home performances were tested
(home and away comparisons will be presented next). Results for these experiments are shown in Figure 5. This figure
illustrates how spatiotemporal data greatly improves the discriminability between different teams (19.26% vs 38.79%),
and fusing traditional and spatiotemporal statistics boosts
performances again (46.70%). The confusion matrix of the
combined representation shows that teams who play a similar style often get confused with each other (e.g. the top 5
teams and teams 13-15) and from viewing the entropy maps
in Figure 4, we can see that these teams have similar characteristics.
arg max Tr(
W
5.2
Exp
HvH
HvA
AvA
AvH
18
Comparing Home vs Away Behavior
If a team plays in the same manner at home as they do
away, the home model should be able to yield similar performance in identifying away matches as they do to the home
matches. To test this theory, we used our home models to
identify away performances and our away models to identify
home performances. From the results (see Table 2), we can
see that there is a drop in the hit-rate of the occupancy map
representation – 8.69% for the home model tested on the
away matches and 6.07% on the reverse case. Even though
not excessive, this drop in performance suggests there is a
change in the spatial behavior between home and away performances.
To explore this aspect further, we visualized the difference
in occupancy between the home and away performances. To
do this, we simply subtracted the home occupancy maps
from the away maps and divided by the away occupancy to
obtain a relative measure. The difference maps for all twenty
Event-Labeled
19.26
16.09
13.98
16.36
Occupancy Maps
38.79
30.08
36.41
30.34
Table 2: The hit rate accuracy of experiments which
tested home (H) and away (A) models against home
and away matches (e.g. HvH refers to home model
tested on home matches and HvA refers to the home
model being tested on away matches).
teams is given in Figure 7. To make it easier to quantify the
difference in occupancy, we calculated the difference with respect to certain areas of the field. Specifically we calculated
the difference: for the whole field (W), the attacking half
(H), and the attacking-third (T) - these values are listed below each difference map. As can be seen from the difference
maps, nearly all the teams (18 out of 20) had more possession in the attacking half. More telling is that 19 out of the
20 teams had more possession in the attacking third. Seeing
that the shooting proficiency is essentially the same (10%
vs 9%), we can point to the observation that the more possession in the attacking third leads to more chances, which
in-turn leads to more goals. A potential statistic to back this
observation up is that Chelsea - who were the only team to
have less occupancy in the attacking third - had the smallest discrepancy between home and away shots (only 12, the
next was Arsenal with 45).
With the absence of labels to compare against it is impossible to say whether this was actually this case as other
factors may have contributed to the home advantage (i.e.
referee’s [22], shooting chance quality, game context (winning, losing, red-cards, key injury, derby matches etc.)) –
essentially our analysis provides correlation and not causation. However, this analysis does provide a effective method
of automatically flagging behavioral differences which can
quickly alert an expert (such as a coach or commentator)
into further or deeper analysis which can aid in the decision
making process. In the next section we show some methods
which can do this.
6.
PRE/POST GAME ANALYSIS
Given a coach or analyst is preparing for an upcoming
match, having a measure of how variable a team’s performance is would be quite beneficial. For example, the coach
or analyst may have viewed a previous match and formed a
qualitative model based on their expert observation. However, this model is only formed by a single observation and
may be subject to over-fitting. Having a measure which
could indicate how variable a team’s performance is would
be quite useful. Given they have a feature representation of
each of the previous performances of a team, our approach
could be a method of determining the performance variance.
To do this, the distance in feature space between each of the
past performances, y, and the
PMmean, ŷ, can be calculated
1
where the mean is ŷ = M
i=1 yi , and where M is the
number of previous performances. A distance measure such
as the L2 norm could be used given that the input space
has been scaled appropriately, which generates the distance
measure via
distm = kym − ŷk2
(2)
where m refers to the game of interest. Returning to our
home and away performance example, one way to quantify
100
(1) Man United
W=3.8%, H=7.6%, T=10.7%
(4) Arsenal
W=3.9, H=4.2%, T=9.5%
(5) Tottenham
W=0.1%, H=3.0%, T=8.9%
50
(6) Liverpool
(7) Everton
(8) Fulham
W=1.8%, H=3.5%, T=9.5% W=-2.9%, H=-0.3%, T=5.6% W=-0.2%, H=1.6%, T=4.5%
(9) Aston Villa
W=0.1%, H=0.6%, T=0.2%
(10) Sunderland
W=2.6%, H=7.1%, T=8.4%
0
(11) West Bromwich Albion
(12) Newcastle
W=0.6%, H=3.1%, T=9.0% W=5.2%, H=6.7%, T=0.5%
(13) Stoke City
W=-3.7%, H=2.1%, T=1.9%
(14) Bolton
W=6.2%, H=5.4%, T=8.0%
(15) Blackburn
W=8.1%, H=3.6%, T=7.3%
(16) Wigan
(17) Wolverhamption
W=8.1%, H=12.4%, T=8.1% W=-4.3%, H=0.4%, T=4.1%
(18) Birmingham City
(19) Blackpool
(20) West Ham United
W=5.0%, H=8.3%, T=13.8% W=-1.0, H=3.4%, T=11.9% W=-2.2%, H=-0.7%, T=3.6%
(2) Chelsea
W=1.1%, H=2.5%, T=-0.5%
(3) Man City
W=1.5%, H=3.1%, T=8.7%
-50
-100
Figure 7: The normalized difference maps between home and away performances for all the 20 EPL teams. In
all maps, teams are attacking from left-to-right and a positive value refers to a team having more occupancy
in home games, while a negative value refers to more occupancy in away games. Percentages underneath
each team give a value on this difference (Key: W is whole field, H refers to forward half and T refers to the
attacking third.)
Distortion Variance
120
80
40
0
0
5
10
15
20
15
20
(a) Home Performances
120
80
40
0
0
5
10
(b) Away Performances
Figure 8: Variance in distortion for (a) home and
(b) away performances.
the variation in performance for each team in the EPL is
through calculating the “feature variance” or “variance in
distortion” using Equation 2 (see Figure 9).
As can be seen in Figure 9(a), the variation in playing
style of most home team’s is small - with the exception of
teams 10 and 11 (Sunderland and West Brom). Conversely,
the majority of team’s away performances were highly variable, with only teams 10 and 14 (Sunderland and Bolton)
having low variance. These results suggest that predicting
the playing style of home teams is quite feasible while predicting performances of away teams would be unreliable.
In terms of post-match analysis, a similar approach could
be used to see if a team’s performance was within the expectation range (i.e. ±σ). A good example was Fulham’s away
performance against Manchester United. In this match, they
lost 2-0 and conceded both goals in the first half (12th and
32nd minute). The comparison between this game and their
typical performance can be visualized through their occupancy maps which are given in Figure 10. In this match,
Fulham occupied a lot more possession in the middle of the
field than they normally do. This example highlights the
importance of the match context, as after scoring two early
goals, based on the data it appeared that Manchester United
sat back and allowed Fulham to have the majority of possession(52% of overall possession) [6], but this possession
was in non-threatening positions (i.e. possession outside of
the attacking third). To account for this behavior, analysis
would have to normalize for variations in behavior caused by
changes in match context (i.e. score, strength of opposition
etc.). However, this is a major problem as we would limit
the amount of data we would have to train our model. Future work will be focussed on clustering styles unsupervised
to maximize the amount of context dependent data.
Distance from Mean
60
40
20
(a)
0
0
5
10
Opponent Number
15
20
Figure 9: Example of the distortion for each away
performance of Fulham in the 2010-2011 season. In
match 16 they played Manchester United, and the
performance on the day was far different from their
other away performances (they lost 2-0 on this occasion).
7.
SUMMARY AND FUTURE WORK
Most sports analytics approaches only use event-based
statistics to drive analysis and decision-making despite the
influx of ball and player tracking data becoming available.
The reason why this new and rich source of information
is being neglected stems from the fact that it is continuous, high-dimensional and difficult to segment into semantic
groups. The emerging field of sports spatiotemporal analytics uses spatiotemporal data such as ball and player tracking data to drive automatic team behavior/strategy analysis
which would be extremely useful in all facets of the sports
industry (e.g. coaching, broadcasting, fantasy-games, video
games, betting etc.). In this paper, we gave an overview
of the types of sports analytics work being done both in
industry as well as academia. Additionally, we gave a casestudy which investigated possible reasons for why the home
advantage exists in continuous sports like soccer. Using spatiotemporal data, we were able to show that teams at home
play have more possession in the attacking third. Coupled
with the fact that the shooting and passing proficiencies are
not significantly different, this observation can partially explain why home teams have more shots and score more, and
in-turn win more at home compared to away matches. Using
our feature representation, we also showed examples where
pre and post game analysis can be performed. Specifically,
we were able to show the variation in home and away performances for each team, as well as the ability to flag anomalous
performances.
Our work also highlighted the importance of match context and the limiting factor it could have on training examples. In future work, we will look at unsupervised methods
to cluster playing similar playing styles, which can enrich
our training data set, without effecting its discriminating
power. Additionally, we will explore how player tracking
information can be used to discover team formations and
plays. Predicting team interactions and subsequent performances and outcomes, especially when they have not played
each other, is another application of our research. As reliable
high-level labels are almost impossible to obtain, predicting
match outcomes may be the best indicator of of successful
analytical modeling.
(b)
Figure 10: Occupancy maps of the: (a) mean away
performance for Fulham, and (b) their performance
against Manchester United - in this match they lost
2-0 and conceded early in the match.
8.
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