RAIT Expectations - RAIT Financial Trust

Transcription

RAIT Financial Trust
Philadelphia|New York|Charlotte
A closer look at the jobs sector on a metrolevel
June 6, 2014
US Commercial Real Estate


New York City
600 3rd Avenue
11th Floor
New York, NY 10022
(212) 735-1495
Charlotte
6801 Fairview Road
Suite D
Charlotte, NC 28210
(704) 362-0489

Haves and Have-Nots: The national
economy has experienced job growth of
6.6% since the recession ended. The top 10
markets have seen job levels grow on
average 14.0% since they troughed, while
the bottom 10 markets in terms of job
growth have increased only 2.4% on
average.
Job Leaders: Austin is the top market that
we track in terms of job growth (regaining
its hold on the top spot from Nashville),
increasing 17.2% (almost 4.0% growth per
year since 2010!), while San Jose, San
Francisco, Nashville, and Houston are also
seeing robust job growth with over 14%
gains each. Other fast improving metros
include Raleigh, Charleston, Orlando,
Dallas, Charlotte, and Denver.
Job Laggards: Conversely, markets such as
Albuquerque, Syracuse, Virginia Beach,
Buffalo, St. Louis, and Philadelphia have
struggled to add jobs with job growth
under 3.0% since their employment levels
bottomed.
The Informed Investor
Job growth is paramount for commercial real
estate fundamentals to recover. An informed
investor in commercial real estate that makes the
effort to dig past the headline numbers and analyze
employment trends on a micro-level basis will have
an advantage during these quickly changing times
in commercial real estate.
Volume 17
Market Strategy & Insight
The Jobs Report: Summer 2014 Update
As an update to our Summer 2013 “The Jobs
Report”, the following report takes a closer look at
job growth on a local level. There is job recovery
occurring on the metro-level, although individual
markets are improving at varying degrees. Metrolevel highlights include:
Philadelphia - HQ
Cira Centre
2929 Arch Street
17th Floor
Philadelphia, PA 19104
(215) 243-9000
RAIT Expectations
RAIT Financial Trust: Greg Laughton
Managing Director
[email protected]
704-362-4655 (direct)
Table of Contents
Section
Summary
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - Summer 2014 Update
National Employment Summary
Private vs. Government Employment
Office-Using Employment
Manufacturing Employment
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Metro-Level Employment Summary
Metros with Most Jobs Gained
Metros with Least Jobs Gained
Appendix A: Total Jobs Gained by %
1
2
2
3
4
5
5
6
6
8
10
Note: All charts are available in excel spreadsheet
form per request
RAIT Expectations
Philadelphia | New York | Charlotte
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs – Summer 2014 Update
The single most important factor for a recovery in the underlying commercial real estate fundamentals
is positive job growth. Job growth fuels retail spending and business travel, as well as creates demand
for office space, apartment units, and warehouse space. The good news is that economic conditions
have improved after slowing last summer with the unemployment rate falling from 7.5% in May 2013 to
6.3% in May 2014. The not-so-good-news is that even with relatively stronger job growth the last twelve
months; the economic recovery has been modest at best when compared to historical recoveries.
Continued uncertainty abroad (Ukraine, Syria, Iran, slower growth in China, etc), along with a domestic
economy that is still feeling the lingering effects of the recession and the recent slowdown in home price
appreciation and buying), continues to add doubt to the recovery. Even with some uncertainty regarding
the near term economic forecast, we believe the U.S. economic recovery is strong enough to continue to
expand at a moderate pace and have begun to see signs that growth may begin to gain more traction
later this year. We expect job growth will likely average around +225,000 for the remainder of 2014;
although the pace will remain shy of historical recoveries and job growth will not be uniform by metro.
While the national economic picture is important, real estate is a local business and investors in
commercial real estate must take into account local conditions in their investment decisions. When one
looks closely at the job market on a micro-level, it is plainly evident that the speeds at which local
economies are emerging from the recession vary widely across the nation. In this report, we identify
which metros have gained the most jobs since the recession and others that are still lagging. First, let’s
start with the national data.
National Employment Summary
Overall, the U.S. economy has created 8,808,000 jobs since bottoming in February 2010 after suffering
almost 8.8 million in job losses in 2008-2009. Job levels eclipsed their previous high last month and,
while this is certainly cause for celebration, it should be noted that it has been over four years since job
levels bottomed, highlighting just how slowly the economy has recovered. While the recent drop in the
unemployment rate has been impressive, much of the improvement has been due to a falling labor
participation rate. We believe that the unemployment rate will remain in the 6.0% to 6.5% range
through the end of the year as unemployed people who had stopped looking for new employment
become re-engaged.
2
RAIT Expectations
Figure 1: National Monthly Net Job Change and Unemployment Rate
500
11.00%
9.00%
100
8.00%
Unemployment Rate
Monthly Net Change (000s)
10.00%
6.3%
300
7.00%
-100
6.00%
-300
5.00%
4.00%
-500
Overall, the U.S.
economy has created
8,808,000 jobs since
bottoming in
February 2010 after
suffering almost 8.8
million in job losses in
2008-2009.
3.00%
-700
2.00%
1.00%
Sep 2000
Jan 2001
May 2001
Sep 2001
Jan 2002
May 2002
Sep 2002
Jan 2003
May 2003
Sep 2003
Jan 2004
May 2004
Sep 2004
Jan 2005
May 2005
Sep 2005
Jan 2006
May 2006
Sep 2006
Jan 2007
May 2007
Sep 2007
Jan 2008
May 2008
Sep 2008
Jan 2009
May 2009
Sep 2009
Jan 2010
May 2010
Sep 2010
Jan 2011
May 2011
Sep 2011
Jan 2012
May 2012
Sep 2012
Jan 2013
May 2013
Sep 2013
Jan 2014
-900
Source: BLS, RAIT Financial Trust
(Total Non-Farm, Seasonally Adjusted)
Monthly Net Job Change
Unemployment Rate
Beyond the Headline Numbers
Looking beyond the monthly headline jobs report, it is clear that the paths of private sector employment
and government payrolls diverged beginning in 2010 as solid corporate profits helped push private
employment levels higher, while the public sector struggled from the effects of the recession. Private
sector job growth has been positive since February 2010, adding 9,196,000, jobs. Conversely,
government payrolls have been a drag on overall employment as public sector jobs falling by 1,123,000
jobs since June 2010. Fortunately, it appears that the public sector employment sector has stabilized
and, on the strength of improving state and municipality job gains, has seen three straight months of
positive job growth for the first time since 2008. We believe that this trend will continue with the
private sector continuing to add jobs while public sector job rolls remain relatively flat.
Figure 2: Private vs. Government Sector Employment
400
11.00%
300
10.00%
9.00%
100
0
8.00%
-100
7.00%
-200
6.00%
-300
-400
5.00%
-500
Unemployment Rate
Monthly Net Change (000s)
200
4.00%
-600
3.00%
-700
Monthly Private Sector Net Job Change
Source: BLS, RAIT Financial
Securities,Trust
LLC
(Total Non-Farm, Seasonally
Adjusted)
Jan 2014
Apr 2014
Jul 2013
Oct 2013
Jan 2013
Apr 2013
Jul 2012
Oct 2012
Jan 2012
Apr 2012
Jul 2011
Oct 2011
Jan 2011
Apr 2011
Jul 2010
Oct 2010
Jan 2010
Apr 2010
Jul 2009
Oct 2009
Jan 2009
Apr 2009
Jul 2008
Oct 2008
Jan 2008
Apr 2008
Jul 2007
Oct 2007
Apr 2007
2.00%
Jan 2007
-800
Monthly Government Sector Net Job Change
Unemployment Rate
3
Although modest,
private sector job
growth was positive
since February 2010,
adding 9,196,000
jobs.
RAIT Expectations
While the tepid public sector forecast continues to weigh on overall job growth, solid gains, particularly
in the office-using employment sector, driven mostly by 2,714,000 gain in professional and business
services but also a turnaround in the construction sector, help build a case that (private) job growth will
continue, and potentially at an increased rate. It should be noted that while government jobs at the
federal level continues to fall, increasing state and local government payrolls have helped overall
government job levels stabilize.
Office-using employment has pushed higher for four straight years, powered mostly by the professional
and business sector, although office-using employment gains continue to be modest on a monthly basis.
Overall office-using employment has gained 2,739,000 jobs since levels bottomed in October 2009 after
losing approximately 2,425,000 jobs during the recession.
Figure 3: Office-Using Employment
0.50%
30,000
0.30%
29,500
29,000
0.10%
28,500
-0.10%
27,500
-0.50%
27,000
-0.70%
26,500
-0.90%
26,000
-1.10%
25,500
Office Using Employment % Change - MoM
in 000's
28,000
-0.30%
Office-using
employment has
increased four
straight years,
gaining
approximately
2,793,000 jobs since
levels bottomed in
October 2009.
Total Office Using Employment
Source: BLS & RAIT Financial Trust
In addition, the manufacturing sector, which had experienced a slowdown last summer, has seen growth
pick up moderately in 2014, which has helped overall job growth average over 200,000 jobs added per
month since last August. The manufacturing sector has added 647,000 jobs overall since January 2010.
For the economy to gain real traction (and continue to exceed +200,000 jobs added per month), the
manufacturing sector has to participate.
4
RAIT Expectations
Figure 4: Manufacturing Employment
0.50%
14,000
13,500
0.00%
13,000
-0.50%
12,500
12,000
in 000's
-1.00%
The manufacturing
sector saw growth
stagnate in early 2013.
Even so, the sector has
added 647,000 jobs
since 2010.
11,500
-1.50%
11,000
-2.00%
10,500
Manufacturing Employment % Change - MoM
Jan 2014
Apr 2014
Jul 2013
Oct 2013
Jan 2013
Apr 2013
Jul 2012
Oct 2012
Jan 2012
Apr 2012
Jul 2011
Oct 2011
Jan 2011
Apr 2011
Jul 2010
Oct 2010
Jan 2010
Apr 2010
Jul 2009
Oct 2009
Jan 2009
Apr 2009
Jul 2008
Oct 2008
Jan 2008
10,000
Apr 2008
-2.50%
Total Manufacturing Employment
Source: BLS & RAIT Financial Trust
While weekly initial jobless claims remain higher than they historically would at this stage of a recovery,
there are some positive signs that potentially point towards greater job growth in the near future. Initial
jobless claims, which vacillated between 300,000 and 350,000 for the past six months, have remained
below the 325,000 barrier for the last two months, marking the longest stretch of this cycle. The four
week moving average is 311,500 jobless claims, the lowest it has been since mid-2007. If jobless claims
continue to consistently come in under 325,000 we feel comfortable that the job recovery can break out
of its current slow growth trajectory.
Figure 5: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Seasonally Adjusted)
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
09 Jun 2007
04 Aug 2007
29 Sep 2007
24 Nov 2007
19 Jan 2008
15 Mar 2008
10 May 2008
05 Jul 2008
30 Aug 2008
25 Oct 2008
20 Dec 2008
14 Feb 2009
11 Apr 2009
06 Jun 2009
01 Aug 2009
26 Sep 2009
21 Nov 2009
16 Jan 2010
13 Mar 2010
08 May 2010
03 Jul 2010
28 Aug 2010
23 Oct 2010
18 Dec 2010
12 Feb 2011
09 Apr 2011
04 Jun 2011
30 Jul 2011
24 Sep 2011
19 Nov 2011
14 Jan 2012
10 Mar 2012
05 May 2012
30 Jun 2012
25 Aug 2012
20 Oct 2012
15 Dec 2012
09 Feb 2013
06 Apr 2013
01 Jun 2013
27 Jul 2013
21 Sep 2013
16 Nov 2013
11 Jan 2014
08 Mar 2014
03 May 2014
200,000
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
5
Initial jobless claims,
which vacillated
above and below
300,000 for the past
six months, have
remained below
325,000 for the last
two months.
RAIT Expectations
Metro-Level Employment Summary: The Haves and Have-Nots
While all of the 77 markets that we track have seen employment levels bottom and begin to improve;
the velocity of the recovery varies widely by metro and region.
Metro-Level Highlights




Haves and Have-Nots: The national economy has experienced job growth of 6.8% since the
recession ended. The top 10 markets have seen job levels grow on average 14.0% since they
troughed, while the bottom 10 markets in terms of job growth have increased only 2.4% on
average.
Job Leaders: Austin is the top market that we track in terms of job growth (regaining its hold on
the top spot from Nashville), increasing 17.2% (almost 4.0% growth per year since 2010!), while
San Jose, San Francisco, Nashville, and Houston are also seeing robust job growth with over
14% gains each. Other fast improving metros include Raleigh, Charleston, Orlando, Dallas,
Charlotte, and Denver.
Job Laggards: Conversely, markets such as Albuquerque, Syracuse, Virginia Beach, Buffalo, St.
Louis, and Philadelphia have struggled to add jobs with job growth under 3.0% since their
employment levels bottomed.
Florida and California Rising: Some of the hardest hit metros during the housing bust/recession
are now experiencing accelerating job growth. Some of the biggest movers in job growth over
the last year include Orlando, Miami, and Palm Beach in Florida and Sacramento, Inland
Empire, and Oakland in California.
See previous RAIT Expectations, “The Jobs Report” at www.rait.com for all previous charts.
Which Markets have had the Largest Gains in Employment since Troughing?
Overall, all of the 77 markets that we analyze currently have employment levels that are higher than
their lowest point during the recession/post-recession period. Austin, our top market in terms of job
growth, has added almost 130,000 jobs since employment levels bottomed in 2009, almost five times
the amount of job losses incurred during the recession. Fueled by tech sector growth (Apple, Google,
Twitter, LinkedIn, etc.), San Jose and San Francisco have experienced stellar job growth since 2011.
Nashville is helped by a diversified economy and in particular, growth in the education/health care
sector has been a star performer since the end of the recession. The rebirth of domestic energy has
spurred employment growth in Houston (+359,800 jobs, by far the most in the nation), Dallas, Fort
Worth, Salt Lake City, Oklahoma City, and Denver. After getting hit extremely hard by the bursting of
the housing bubble and subsequent recession, Orlando’s economy is hitting on all cylinders and, along
with Dallas, has experienced the most job growth so far in 2014. Finally, broad-based job growth in
Charlotte’s diversified economy continues the metros rapid recovery, while Boeing’s new plant in
Charleston has led to solid employment gains.
6
RAIT Expectations
Since our September 2013 update, only a few markets fell out of the top 25, while others are making an
appearance. Baltimore, Minneapolis, and Northern Virginia all fell out of the top 25 as job growth
slowed. Conversely, increasing job growth helped Miami, Palm Beach, and Fort Lauderdale all move
their way onto the top 25 list.
A handful of markets have experienced significant job growth so far in 2014, including Dallas, Orlando,
San Diego, Houston, Las Vegas, Fort Lauderdale, and Portland. All of which have seen job levels
increase at least 1.25% over the first four months of 2014.
Figure 6: Top 25 Markets by Total Jobs Gained by % - Since the Trough (Total Nonfarm, SA)
Top 25 Historical Employment Change by Market
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
Gain since
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Rank *
State
(000s)
%
(000s)
%
(000s)
%
(000s)
1
Austin
40.8 5.80%
25.2 3.39%
5.6 0.73%
(18.2)
2
San Jose
20.6 2.33%
19.0 2.10%
(16.7) -1.80%
(50.1)
3
San Francisco
23.9 2.47%
21.5 2.17%
(9.4) -0.93%
(52.9)
4
Nashville
10.5 1.41%
13.5 1.79%
(19.3) -2.51%
(26.0)
5
Houston
103.5 4.32%
89.3 3.58%
20.8 0.80%
(107.5)
6
Raleigh
30.0 6.30%
19.4 3.83%
(7.9) -1.50%
(20.4)
7
Charleston
10.3 3.64%
8.0 2.73%
(6.8) -2.26%
(14.2)
8
Orlando
38.1 3.68%
11.9 1.11%
(51.2) -4.72%
(50.4)
9
Dallas
63.3 3.20%
55.5 2.72%
(25.0) -1.19%
(76.2)
10 Charlotte
43.0 5.36%
26.2 3.10%
(23.5) -2.70%
(48.9)
11 Denver
22.9 1.90%
26.8 2.19%
(15.8) -1.26%
(49.8)
12 Fort Worth
28.4 3.43%
20.1 2.35%
(5.8) -0.66%
(30.4)
13 Miami
21.1 2.03%
10.9 1.03%
(48.5) -4.53%
(42.2)
14 Salt Lake City
27.6 4.61%
16.0 2.55%
(12.1) -1.88%
(25.9)
15 San Antonio
24.6 3.09%
25.7 3.13%
3.2 0.38%
(13.6)
16 Greenville
8.2 2.73%
6.9 2.24%
(11.4) -3.61%
(16.0)
17 Oklahoma City
4.5 0.79%
9.8 1.72%
3.4 0.59%
(22.0)
18 Columbus
11.5 1.24%
7.2 0.77%
(15.8) -1.67%
(33.3)
19 Portland
26.8 2.67%
14.3 1.39%
(32.1) -3.07%
(47.2)
20 Palm Beach
8.4 1.50%
(9.3) -1.63%
(29.4) -5.25%
(26.7)
21 Seattle
46.2 2.75%
51.8 3.00%
(30.5) -1.71%
(89.1)
22 Tampa
17.4 1.43%
(17.4) -1.41%
(62.4) -5.12%
(59.0)
23 New York City
76.1 2.10%
67.6 1.82%
(7.1) -0.19%
(93.4)
24 Fort Lauderdale
20.9 2.71%
(2.6) -0.33%
(48.7) -6.17%
(38.3)
25 Indianapolis
19.3 2.16%
12.8 1.40%
(23.2) -2.51%
(32.3)
Source: BLS.gov, Economy.com, RAIT Financial Trust; 2014 data through April 2014
* Ranked by gain since trough
%
-2.35%
-5.51%
-5.28%
-3.47%
-4.12%
-3.94%
-4.83%
-4.87%
-3.67%
-5.77%
-4.03%
-3.50%
-4.13%
-4.11%
-1.60%
-5.26%
-3.77%
-3.58%
-4.66%
-5.03%
-5.10%
-5.10%
-2.48%
-5.17%
-3.59%
(000s)
24.6
15.8
11.8
21.1
50.4
9.1
10.6
13.5
42.1
20.5
13.9
12.9
15.7
9.3
13.5
8.1
11.6
12.9
16.7
1.8
18.3
17.6
66.3
5.1
10.5
%
3.25%
1.84%
1.24%
2.92%
2.02%
1.83%
3.78%
1.37%
2.11%
2.57%
1.17%
1.54%
1.60%
1.54%
1.61%
2.81%
2.06%
1.44%
1.73%
0.36%
1.10%
1.60%
1.80%
0.73%
1.21%
(000s)
26.0
22.0
33.5
26.4
81.3
8.6
8.3
19.3
41.3
19.6
25.8
29.5
21.5
13.9
17.9
5.3
12.7
30.6
19.0
12.1
33.3
21.2
92.3
16.9
25.8
%
3.33%
2.52%
3.49%
3.55%
3.19%
1.70%
2.86%
1.94%
2.03%
2.39%
2.15%
3.46%
2.16%
2.26%
2.11%
1.79%
2.21%
3.37%
1.93%
2.39%
1.99%
1.90%
2.47%
2.39%
2.94%
(000s)
37.6
43.7
55.3
25.0
113.6
17.8
8.7
29.9
57.5
25.1
43.4
28.0
26.0
25.6
26.4
5.7
14.8
31.1
21.2
11.5
47.7
23.1
94.2
14.6
18.4
%
4.66%
4.87%
5.56%
3.25%
4.32%
3.46%
2.91%
2.94%
2.76%
2.99%
3.54%
3.18%
2.56%
4.08%
3.04%
1.89%
2.53%
3.31%
2.12%
2.22%
2.79%
2.03%
2.46%
2.02%
2.03%
(000s)
37.8
44.1
36.3
27.2
88.3
18.5
4.0
36.1
69.9
21.9
36.9
18.3
30.7
14.2
28.5
9.4
17.8
10.5
27.5
17.1
45.0
27.5
83.7
22.4
14.8
%
4.47%
4.69%
3.46%
3.42%
3.22%
3.47%
1.30%
3.45%
3.27%
2.53%
2.91%
2.01%
2.95%
2.17%
3.19%
3.06%
2.96%
1.08%
2.69%
3.23%
2.56%
2.37%
2.13%
3.03%
1.60%
(000s)
3.7
11.5
8.1
5.6
36.5
4.0
2.5
20.8
48.0
7.1
15.5
5.6
12.9
6.9
7.1
1.9
4.5
1.3
13.0
5.5
17.3
12.2
14.0
9.5
4.0
%
0.43%
1.21%
0.77%
0.70%
1.32%
0.75%
0.81%
1.98%
2.24%
0.82%
1.21%
0.61%
1.23%
1.05%
0.79%
0.61%
0.75%
0.13%
1.27%
1.03%
0.98%
1.05%
0.36%
1.28%
0.43%
(000s)
129.5
141.3
150.1
106.1
359.0
62.9
34.3
119.3
239.8
94.9
140.2
98.3
113.2
66.3
88.5
30.4
57.8
90.9
96.7
50.4
165.7
105.5
353.0
67.1
81.2
% of Lost
Jobs
%
Recaptured
17.15% 546.4%
16.57% 181.6%
15.87% 209.3%
14.76% 217.9%
14.36% 309.0%
12.73% 205.6%
12.25% 153.8%
12.13% 115.4%
12.01% 212.8%
11.88% 131.1%
11.85% 185.4%
11.72% 234.6%
11.60% 121.1%
10.99% 162.5%
10.63% 393.3%
10.57% 102.0%
10.29% 249.1%
10.15% 176.8%
10.03% 118.4%
10.02%
73.0%
10.00% 127.6%
9.62%
73.7%
9.62%
256.5%
9.57%
74.3%
9.37%
141.7%
Which markets have recaptured jobs lost during the Recession?
While a majority of markets are still a long way from peak employment levels attained before the
recession, 35 markets (led by Austin, San Antonio, Houston, District of Columbia, New York City,
Oklahoma City, Northern Virginia, Fort Worth, New Orleans, and Nashville) have recaptured all of the
jobs lost during the recession and currently have overall employment levels that are at all-time highs.
This is up from a total of 28 markets that recaptured 100% of lost jobs as of June 2013.
Conversely, eleven markets have recaptured less than 50% of jobs lost during the recession (U.S. has
recaptured 98.7%) including Birmingham, St. Louis, Memphis, Tucson, Northern New Jersey,
Greensboro, Wichita, Detroit (although it has created 144,000 new jobs, or 8.4% growth, it is still only
29% of total jobs lost from 2000 to 2009), Virginia Beach, Syracuse, and Albuquerque. Others still with a
deep deficit of jobs are Central New Jersey, Hartford, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee.
7
RAIT Expectations
Which Markets have Limited Employment Growth?
Highlighting the vast differences between the “Haves” and “Have-Nots” in terms of job creation during
this recovery there are five markets that have seen job levels fall over the past twelve months ending in
April 2014, including Albuquerque, Syracuse, Detoit, Virginia Beach, and Suburban Maryland. The
Syracuse, Albuquerque, and Virginia Beach economies continue to struggle to gain any traction, while a
handful of other markets remain precariously close to their near term lows. Memphis, Central New
Jersey, Northern New Jersey, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Buffalo lead a geographically diverse list of 14
other markets that are struggling to add jobs with overall growth still under 4.0%.
The full list of metros is located in Appendix A of this report.
Figure 7: List of Metros with Limited Employment Growth
Bottom 25 Historical Employment Change by Market
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
Gain since
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Rank *
State
(000s)
%
(000s)
%
(000s)
%
(000s)
53 Long Island
10.4 0.83%
10.9 0.87%
(23.3) -1.83%
(28.2)
54 Fairfield Cty
4.6 1.06%
5.1 1.18%
(12.7) -2.89%
(19.1)
55 Chicago
47.0 1.05%
29.2 0.64%
(120.8) -2.65%
(212.3)
56 New Haven
5.6 1.48%
0.9 0.23%
(8.5) -2.22%
(14.4)
57 Pittsburgh
10.1 0.89%
5.5 0.48%
(6.7) -0.58%
(24.1)
58 Cleveland
(3.1) -0.29%
(3.3) -0.31%
(31.8) -2.97%
(49.4)
59 Kansas City
20.4 2.07%
10.6 1.05%
(11.8) -1.16%
(37.2)
60 Birmingham
8.3 1.59%
3.0 0.57%
(13.2) -2.47%
(27.9)
61 Little Rock
7.3 2.17%
4.9 1.43%
(3.9) -1.12%
(8.9)
62 Milwaukee
13.1 1.55%
0.4 0.05%
(15.4) -1.80%
(39.1)
63 Suburban Maryland 4.9 0.86%
(1.0) -0.17%
(9.9) -1.72%
(8.9)
64 Greensboro
9.5 2.62%
(1.1) -0.30%
(14.6) -3.94%
(20.8)
65 Wichita
10.7 3.71%
6.1 2.04%
0.7 0.23%
(21.3)
66 Tucson
10.9 2.93%
(0.3) -0.08%
(10.9) -2.85%
(18.1)
67 Rochester
(2.1) -0.41%
1.2 0.23%
(2.9) -0.56%
(12.8)
68 Hartford
12.3 1.98%
6.7 1.05%
(8.5) -1.33%
(23.5)
69 Memphis
9.5 1.50%
(0.1) -0.02%
(22.3) -3.48%
(29.0)
70 Central New Jersey 23.8 2.34%
0.6 0.06%
(30.5) -2.93%
(24.0)
71 Northern New Jersey 7.8 0.76%
6.3 0.61%
(31.4) -3.02%
(33.4)
72 Philadelphia
21.1 0.76%
14.5 0.52%
(42.8) -1.52%
(88.4)
73 St. Louis
17.1 1.27%
7.6 0.56%
(33.1) -2.42%
(48.1)
74 Buffalo
0.6 0.11%
2.7 0.49%
(2.4) -0.44%
(12.8)
75 Virginia Beach
10.1 1.32%
1.0 0.13%
(18.0) -2.33%
(19.1)
76 Syracuse
0.00%
2.9 0.90%
(2.8) -0.86%
(9.4)
77 Albuquerque
10.3 2.68%
1.9 0.48%
(8.7) -2.20%
(14.1)
%
-2.26%
-4.46%
-4.78%
-3.86%
-2.11%
-4.76%
-3.70%
-5.36%
-2.58%
-4.65%
-1.57%
-5.84%
-6.96%
-4.87%
-2.50%
-3.72%
-4.68%
-2.38%
-3.31%
-3.19%
-3.60%
-2.34%
-2.53%
-2.93%
-3.64%
(000s)
14.9
4.9
40.5
(0.3)
19.0
5.3
8.2
(0.4)
3.5
5.8
4.8
2.5
(1.7)
(0.8)
4.6
3.9
(1.0)
(4.5)
(10.5)
18.8
5.8
6.0
(0.1)
0.7
(1.5)
%
1.22%
1.20%
0.96%
-0.07%
1.70%
0.54%
0.85%
-0.08%
1.04%
0.72%
0.86%
0.75%
-0.60%
-0.23%
0.92%
0.64%
-0.17%
-0.46%
-1.08%
0.70%
0.45%
1.12%
-0.01%
0.22%
-0.40%
(000s)
15.3
4.1
58.9
2.9
16.3
13.3
12.1
5.0
0.9
1.4
2.2
2.4
(0.1)
3.5
9.2
3.4
9.2
8.3
4.9
4.3
12.4
4.1
3.9
1.7
(4.7)
%
1.24%
1.00%
1.38%
0.80%
1.43%
1.34%
1.24%
1.02%
0.27%
0.17%
0.39%
0.71%
-0.04%
0.99%
1.83%
0.55%
1.56%
0.85%
0.51%
0.16%
0.96%
0.76%
0.53%
0.54%
-1.26%
(000s)
16.9
4.7
74.9
5.5
4.8
18.6
11.0
6.5
4.5
12.4
4.6
4.3
4.5
3.8
2.1
7.8
8.5
16.8
5.6
28.5
5.3
2.0
10.6
2.0
3.6
%
1.35%
1.12%
1.73%
1.51%
0.42%
1.85%
1.11%
1.31%
1.32%
1.53%
0.81%
1.26%
1.59%
1.07%
0.41%
1.26%
1.42%
1.70%
0.58%
1.05%
0.41%
0.37%
1.43%
0.64%
0.98%
(000s)
9.0
1.9
42.7
2.8
-4.5
3.8
6.8
10.0
1.5
10.5
5.8
2.1
3.0
6.0
-0.9
3.8
1.5
16.5
11.5
10.5
8.8
5.4
-2.2
-1.4
-3.2
%
0.71%
0.44%
0.97%
0.76%
-0.39%
0.37%
0.68%
1.99%
0.44%
1.28%
1.02%
0.61%
1.04%
1.66%
-0.17%
0.61%
0.25%
1.64%
1.18%
0.38%
0.67%
0.99%
-0.29%
-0.44%
-0.86%
(000s)
2.6
1.0
-19.0
0.3
7.4
4.0
4.4
-0.5
3.8
1.2
-3.3
-0.8
0.7
1.6
0.8
-2.6
2.8
-4.0
4.2
5.6
5.5
-1.7
-1.8
-2.6
-1.4
%
0.20%
0.23%
-0.43%
0.08%
0.64%
0.39%
0.44%
-0.10%
1.10%
0.15%
-0.58%
-0.23%
0.24%
0.44%
0.16%
-0.42%
0.46%
-0.40%
0.43%
0.20%
0.42%
-0.31%
-0.24%
-0.82%
-0.38%
(000s)
67.5
21.4
221.7
18.1
53.8
46.5
44.2
22.1
14.4
32.6
22.1
13.3
11.0
13.3
18.4
21.7
20.5
32.0
29.1
78.4
36.2
15.0
7.5
2.2
1.2
% of Lost
Jobs
%
Recaptured
5.54%
123.6%
5.24%
64.9%
5.24%
66.1%
5.11%
63.1%
4.85%
127.2%
4.62%
64.1%
4.57%
75.9%
4.49%
47.5%
4.32%
89.4%
4.06%
54.2%
4.02%
80.7%
3.98%
36.1%
3.94%
35.5%
3.80%
37.5%
3.69%
98.4%
3.59%
51.3%
3.49%
37.9%
3.25%
50.5%
3.02%
36.3%
2.93%
54.2%
2.81%
43.9%
2.81%
73.5%
1.01%
19.4%
0.71%
16.1%
0.32%
3.8%
Summary
The U.S. economy is now three and a half years into the economic “recovery”, and there is a clear line
between which markets are successfully creating new jobs and other markets that continue to struggle
to gain traction. The markets leading the nation from the recession echo the sectors that are the
current economic drivers in the United States, such as energy (Texas, Oklahoma City, and to a lesser
extent, Denver and Salt Lake City) and tech (San Jose and San Francisco), education/health care
(Nashville), as well as diversified business friendly/lifestyle locations (Austin, Orlando and Charlotte).
We are also seeing the return of job growth to much of Florida and California, which highlights job and
demographic trends that have been in place for decades. Growth is occurring in the Sunbelt, particularly
Texas, the Carolinas, Florida, and California, while the much of the Midwest and Northeast struggle to
gain traction. We expect these trends will continue over the near term and that the current job growth
leaders will continue to shine bright during this job growth cycle. Conversely, many of the laggards in
8
RAIT Expectations
terms of job creation will continue to labor with some struggling to match their pre-recession peak job
levels.
Job growth is paramount for commercial real estate fundamentals to recover. An informed investor in
commercial real estate that makes the effort to dig past the headline numbers and analyze employment
trends on a micro-level basis will have an advantage during these quickly changing times in commercial
real estate.
9
RAIT Expectations
Appendix A: Total Jobs Gained by % - Since the Trough (Full List of Metros)
Historical Employment Change by Market
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
Gain since
Trough
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
%
(000s)
%
4.66%
37.8
4.47%
4.87%
44.1
4.69%
5.56%
36.3
3.46%
3.25%
27.2
3.42%
4.32%
88.3
3.22%
3.46%
18.5
3.47%
2.91%
4.0
1.30%
2.94%
36.1
3.45%
2.76%
69.9
3.27%
2.99%
21.9
2.53%
3.54%
36.9
2.91%
3.18%
18.3
2.01%
2.56%
30.7
2.95%
4.08%
14.2
2.17%
3.04%
28.5
3.19%
1.89%
9.4
3.06%
2.53%
17.8
2.96%
3.31%
10.5
1.08%
2.12%
27.5
2.69%
2.22%
17.1
3.23%
2.79%
45.0
2.56%
2.03%
27.5
2.37%
2.46%
83.7
2.13%
2.02%
22.4
3.03%
2.03%
14.8
1.60%
3.02%
52.6
2.94%
3.78%
23.8
1.83%
4.30%
39.1
3.26%
3.68%
38.0
2.64%
2.47%
32.0
3.84%
1.49%
18.0
1.36%
2.03%
51.7
2.18%
2.21%
15.4
0.83%
1.92%
17.9
2.99%
1.23%
40.1
2.26%
1.92%
4.1
0.55%
4.26%
23.5
2.31%
2.97%
23.5
2.76%
3.54%
94.3
2.32%
3.78%
5.4
0.87%
2.14%
6.2
0.98%
2.91%
3.1
0.86%
1.88%
5.5
1.95%
1.67%
11.3
0.83%
1.68% 2,475.0 1.83%
1.49%
41.8
1.67%
0.52%
4.5
1.36%
1.49%
20.4
2.01%
2.27%
7.0
1.63%
1.96%
4.0
1.57%
1.31%
10.8
2.29%
1.22%
9.1
1.69%
1.35%
9.0
0.71%
1.12%
1.9
0.44%
1.73%
42.7
0.97%
1.51%
2.8
0.76%
0.42%
-4.5
-0.39%
1.85%
3.8
0.37%
1.11%
6.8
0.68%
1.31%
10.0
1.99%
1.32%
1.5
0.44%
1.53%
10.5
1.28%
0.81%
5.8
1.02%
1.26%
2.1
0.61%
1.59%
3.0
1.04%
1.07%
6.0
1.66%
0.41%
-0.9
-0.17%
1.26%
3.8
0.61%
1.42%
1.5
0.25%
1.70%
16.5
1.64%
0.58%
11.5
1.18%
1.05%
10.5
0.38%
0.41%
8.8
0.67%
0.37%
5.4
0.99%
1.43%
-2.2
-0.29%
0.64%
-1.4
-0.44%
0.98%
-3.2
-0.86%
(000s)
3.7
11.5
8.1
5.6
36.5
4.0
2.5
20.8
48.0
7.1
15.5
5.6
12.9
6.9
7.1
1.9
4.5
1.3
13.0
5.5
17.3
12.2
14.0
9.5
4.0
2.4
19.4
5.4
7.4
11.0
13.3
6.7
-8.2
6.9
5.4
1.4
4.8
9.8
26.1
-5.2
3.9
2.5
-0.4
-0.6
1068.0
9.9
2.2
10.6
1.2
2.6
2.0
-0.3
2.6
1.0
-19.0
0.3
7.4
4.0
4.4
-0.5
3.8
1.2
-3.3
-0.8
0.7
1.6
0.8
-2.6
2.8
-4.0
4.2
5.6
5.5
-1.7
-1.8
-2.6
-1.4
Rank *
State
(000s)
%
(000s)
%
(000s)
%
(000s)
1
Austin
40.8 5.80%
25.2 3.39%
5.6 0.73%
(18.2)
2
San Jose
20.6 2.33%
19.0 2.10%
(16.7) -1.80%
(50.1)
3
San Francisco
23.9 2.47%
21.5 2.17%
(9.4) -0.93%
(52.9)
4
Nashville
10.5 1.41%
13.5 1.79%
(19.3) -2.51%
(26.0)
5
Houston
103.5 4.32%
89.3 3.58%
20.8 0.80%
(107.5)
6
Raleigh
30.0 6.30%
19.4 3.83%
(7.9) -1.50%
(20.4)
7
Charleston
10.3 3.64%
8.0 2.73%
(6.8) -2.26%
(14.2)
8
Orlando
38.1 3.68%
11.9 1.11%
(51.2) -4.72%
(50.4)
9
Dallas
63.3 3.20%
55.5 2.72%
(25.0) -1.19%
(76.2)
10
Charlotte
43.0 5.36%
26.2 3.10%
(23.5) -2.70%
(48.9)
11
Denver
22.9 1.90%
26.8 2.19%
(15.8) -1.26%
(49.8)
12
Fort Worth
28.4 3.43%
20.1 2.35%
(5.8) -0.66%
(30.4)
13
Miami
21.1 2.03%
10.9 1.03%
(48.5) -4.53%
(42.2)
14
Salt Lake City
27.6 4.61%
16.0 2.55%
(12.1) -1.88%
(25.9)
15
San Antonio
24.6 3.09%
25.7 3.13%
3.2 0.38%
(13.6)
16
Greenville
8.2 2.73%
6.9 2.24%
(11.4) -3.61%
(16.0)
17
Oklahoma City
4.5 0.79%
9.8 1.72%
3.4 0.59%
(22.0)
18
Columbus
11.5 1.24%
7.2 0.77%
(15.8) -1.67%
(33.3)
19
Portland
26.8 2.67%
14.3 1.39%
(32.1) -3.07%
(47.2)
20
Palm Beach
8.4 1.50%
(9.3) -1.63%
(29.4) -5.25%
(26.7)
21
Seattle
46.2 2.75%
51.8 3.00%
(30.5) -1.71%
(89.1)
22
Tampa
17.4 1.43%
(17.4) -1.41%
(62.4) -5.12%
(59.0)
23
New York City
76.1 2.10%
67.6 1.82%
(7.1) -0.19%
(93.4)
24
Fort Lauderdale
20.9 2.71%
(2.6) -0.33%
(48.7) -6.17%
(38.3)
25
Indianapolis
19.3 2.16%
12.8 1.40%
(23.2) -2.51%
(32.3)
26
Phoenix
66.6 3.62%
14.3 0.75%
(110.5) -5.75%
(120.3)
27
San Diego
16.8 1.29%
3.5 0.27%
(30.2) -2.29%
(59.1)
28
Inland Empire
21.9 1.74%
(2.2) -0.17%
(73.0) -5.69%
(65.0)
29
Orange County
21.1 1.40%
(14.6) -0.95%
(69.1) -4.56%
(88.3)
30
Las Vegas
25.5 2.84%
7.3 0.79%
(55.9) -6.00%
(63.2)
31
Baltimore
17.6 1.36%
4.5 0.34%
(21.4) -1.62%
(33.9)
32
Atlanta
65.8 2.77%
18.8 0.77%
(85.4) -3.48%
(115.2)
33
Detroit
(58.3) -2.86%
(34.1) -1.72%
(99.5) -5.12%
(122.2)
34
Jacksonville
18.3 2.99%
(1.3) -0.21%
(24.4) -3.88%
(27.1)
35
Minneapolis
9.7 0.54%
1.9 0.11%
(35.5) -1.98%
(70.6)
36
District of Columbia
3.5 0.51%
9.4 1.36%
2.7 0.39%
1.4
37
Oakland
7.2 0.69%
5.1 0.48%
(37.6) -3.55%
(54.9)
38
Sacramento
7.4 0.82%
0.9 0.10%
(34.6) -3.78%
(46.2)
39
Los Angeles
45.3 1.09%
22.6 0.54%
(129.6) -3.06%
(219.8)
40
Louisville
10.8 1.77%
3.4 0.55%
(15.1) -2.41%
(20.2)
41
Richmond
12.1 1.95%
0.7 0.11%
(8.3) -1.31%
(24.9)
42
Columbia, SC
6.9 1.94%
3.8 1.05%
(8.4) -2.29%
(16.4)
43
Durham
10.4 3.91%
4.1 1.48%
(0.1) -0.04%
(11.2)
44
Northern Virginia
21.9 1.71%
10.9 0.84%
(10.1) -0.77%
(10.2)
45
United States
2,085.0 1.54% 1,140.0 0.83% (3,576.0) -2.58% (5,087.0)
46
Boston
37.4 1.55%
34.2 1.40%
(17.0) -0.69%
(61.8)
47
Knoxville
7.1 2.16%
0.7 0.21%
(2.8) -0.83%
(14.1)
48
Cincinnati
0.4 0.04%
12.8 1.23%
(25.6) -2.43%
(44.1)
49
Tulsa
9.2 2.18%
4.8 1.12%
1.3 0.30%
(24.5)
50
Colorado Springs
2.7 1.05%
2.4 0.93%
(6.9) -2.64%
(8.2)
51
Omaha
7.2 1.59%
8.0 1.74%
0.3 0.06%
(13.5)
52
New Orleans
55.8 12.40%
23.0 4.55%
1.3 0.25%
(10.3)
53
Long Island
10.4 0.83%
10.9 0.87%
(23.3) -1.83%
(28.2)
54
Fairfield Cty
4.6 1.06%
5.1 1.18%
(12.7) -2.89%
(19.1)
55
Chicago
47.0 1.05%
29.2 0.64%
(120.8) -2.65%
(212.3)
56
New Haven
5.6 1.48%
0.9 0.23%
(8.5) -2.22%
(14.4)
57
Pittsburgh
10.1 0.89%
5.5 0.48%
(6.7) -0.58%
(24.1)
58
Cleveland
(3.1) -0.29%
(3.3) -0.31%
(31.8) -2.97%
(49.4)
59
Kansas City
20.4 2.07%
10.6 1.05%
(11.8) -1.16%
(37.2)
60
Birmingham
8.3 1.59%
3.0 0.57%
(13.2) -2.47%
(27.9)
61
Little Rock
7.3 2.17%
4.9 1.43%
(3.9) -1.12%
(8.9)
62
Milwaukee
13.1 1.55%
0.4 0.05%
(15.4) -1.80%
(39.1)
63
Suburban Maryland
4.9 0.86%
(1.0) -0.17%
(9.9) -1.72%
(8.9)
64
Greensboro
9.5 2.62%
(1.1) -0.30%
(14.6) -3.94%
(20.8)
65
Wichita
10.7 3.71%
6.1 2.04%
0.7 0.23%
(21.3)
66
Tucson
10.9 2.93%
(0.3) -0.08%
(10.9) -2.85%
(18.1)
67
Rochester
(2.1) -0.41%
1.2 0.23%
(2.9) -0.56%
(12.8)
68
Hartford
12.3 1.98%
6.7 1.05%
(8.5) -1.33%
(23.5)
69
Memphis
9.5 1.50%
(0.1) -0.02%
(22.3) -3.48%
(29.0)
70
Central New Jersey
23.8 2.34%
0.6 0.06%
(30.5) -2.93%
(24.0)
71
Northern New Jersey
7.8 0.76%
6.3 0.61%
(31.4) -3.02%
(33.4)
72
Philadelphia
21.1 0.76%
14.5 0.52%
(42.8) -1.52%
(88.4)
73
St. Louis
17.1 1.27%
7.6 0.56%
(33.1) -2.42%
(48.1)
74
Buffalo
0.6 0.11%
2.7 0.49%
(2.4) -0.44%
(12.8)
75
Virginia Beach
10.1 1.32%
1.0 0.13%
(18.0) -2.33%
(19.1)
76
Syracuse
0.00%
2.9 0.90%
(2.8) -0.86%
(9.4)
77
Albuquerque
10.3 2.68%
1.9 0.48%
(8.7) -2.20%
(14.1)
%
(000s)
%
(000s)
%
(000s)
-2.35%
24.6 3.25%
26.0 3.33%
37.6
-5.51%
15.8 1.84%
22.0 2.52%
43.7
-5.28%
11.8 1.24%
33.5 3.49%
55.3
-3.47%
21.1 2.92%
26.4 3.55%
25.0
-4.12%
50.4 2.02%
81.3 3.19% 113.6
-3.94%
9.1 1.83%
8.6 1.70%
17.8
-4.83%
10.6 3.78%
8.3 2.86%
8.7
-4.87%
13.5 1.37%
19.3 1.94%
29.9
-3.67%
42.1 2.11%
41.3 2.03%
57.5
-5.77%
20.5 2.57%
19.6 2.39%
25.1
-4.03%
13.9 1.17%
25.8 2.15%
43.4
-3.50%
12.9 1.54%
29.5 3.46%
28.0
-4.13%
15.7 1.60%
21.5 2.16%
26.0
-4.11%
9.3 1.54%
13.9 2.26%
25.6
-1.60%
13.5 1.61%
17.9 2.11%
26.4
-5.26%
8.1 2.81%
5.3 1.79%
5.7
-3.77%
11.6 2.06%
12.7 2.21%
14.8
-3.58%
12.9 1.44%
30.6 3.37%
31.1
-4.66%
16.7 1.73%
19.0 1.93%
21.2
-5.03%
1.8 0.36%
12.1 2.39%
11.5
-5.10%
18.3 1.10%
33.3 1.99%
47.7
-5.10%
17.6 1.60%
21.2 1.90%
23.1
-2.48%
66.3 1.80%
92.3 2.47%
94.2
-5.17%
5.1 0.73%
16.9 2.39%
14.6
-3.59%
10.5 1.21%
25.8 2.94%
18.4
-6.65%
13.0 0.77%
33.6 1.97%
52.5
-4.58%
9.2 0.75%
12.0 0.97%
47.3
-5.38%
1.0 0.09%
6.2 0.54%
49.5
-6.11%
17.1 1.26%
15.2 1.11%
51.1
-7.22%
(9.4) -1.16%
11.0 1.37%
20.1
-2.61%
15.9 1.26%
23.7 1.85%
19.5
-4.86%
26.1 1.16%
41.9 1.84%
47.2
-6.62%
31.9 1.85%
56.0 3.19%
40.0
-4.49%
8.4 1.46%
2.1 0.36%
11.3
-4.02%
22.2 1.32%
43.7 2.56%
21.5
0.20%
13.0 1.85%
11.7 1.63%
14.0
-5.37%
(5.0) -0.52%
14.6 1.52%
41.6
-5.25%
(12.7) -1.52%
6.5 0.79%
24.6
-5.35%
14.7 0.38%
31.0 0.79% 139.0
-3.31%
9.1 1.54%
0.9 0.15%
22.7
-3.99%
4.8 0.80%
13.2 2.18%
13.2
-4.58%
2.5 0.73%
6.3 1.83%
10.2
-3.99%
2.6 0.97%
4.3 1.58%
5.2
-0.78%
25.5 1.97%
19.4 1.47%
22.4
-3.77% 1,058.0 0.82% 2,083.0 1.59% 2236.0
-2.51%
29.0 1.21%
31.0 1.27%
36.7
-4.23%
5.2 1.63%
5.7 1.76%
1.7
-4.30%
(1.3) -0.13%
17.7 1.81%
14.9
-5.61%
3.3 0.80%
4.0 0.96%
9.5
-3.22%
0.00%
3.5 1.42%
4.9
-2.88%
6.0 1.32%
4.3 0.93%
6.1
-1.94%
6.0 1.15%
6.2 1.18%
6.5
-2.26%
14.9 1.22%
15.3 1.24%
16.9
-4.46%
4.9 1.20%
4.1 1.00%
4.7
-4.78%
40.5 0.96%
58.9 1.38%
74.9
-3.86%
(0.3) -0.07%
2.9 0.80%
5.5
-2.11%
19.0 1.70%
16.3 1.43%
4.8
-4.76%
5.3 0.54%
13.3 1.34%
18.6
-3.70%
8.2 0.85%
12.1 1.24%
11.0
-5.36%
(0.4) -0.08%
5.0 1.02%
6.5
-2.58%
3.5 1.04%
0.9 0.27%
4.5
-4.65%
5.8 0.72%
1.4 0.17%
12.4
-1.57%
4.8 0.86%
2.2 0.39%
4.6
-5.84%
2.5 0.75%
2.4 0.71%
4.3
-6.96%
(1.7) -0.60%
(0.1) -0.04%
4.5
-4.87%
(0.8) -0.23%
3.5 0.99%
3.8
-2.50%
4.6 0.92%
9.2 1.83%
2.1
-3.72%
3.9 0.64%
3.4 0.55%
7.8
-4.68%
(1.0) -0.17%
9.2 1.56%
8.5
-2.38%
(4.5) -0.46%
8.3 0.85%
16.8
-3.31%
(10.5) -1.08%
4.9 0.51%
5.6
-3.19%
18.8 0.70%
4.3 0.16%
28.5
-3.60%
5.8 0.45%
12.4 0.96%
5.3
-2.34%
6.0 1.12%
4.1 0.76%
2.0
-2.53%
(0.1) -0.01%
3.9 0.53%
10.6
-2.93%
0.7 0.22%
1.7 0.54%
2.0
-3.64%
(1.5) -0.40%
(4.7) -1.26%
3.6
10
%
0.43%
1.21%
0.77%
0.70%
1.32%
0.75%
0.81%
1.98%
2.24%
0.82%
1.21%
0.61%
1.23%
1.05%
0.79%
0.61%
0.75%
0.13%
1.27%
1.03%
0.98%
1.05%
0.36%
1.28%
0.43%
0.13%
1.49%
0.45%
0.51%
1.31%
1.00%
0.28%
-0.44%
1.15%
0.30%
0.19%
0.47%
1.14%
0.64%
-0.83%
0.62%
0.70%
-0.14%
-0.04%
0.79%
0.40%
0.66%
1.04%
0.28%
1.02%
0.42%
-0.06%
0.20%
0.23%
-0.43%
0.08%
0.64%
0.39%
0.44%
-0.10%
1.10%
0.15%
-0.58%
-0.23%
0.24%
0.44%
0.16%
-0.42%
0.46%
-0.40%
0.43%
0.20%
0.42%
-0.31%
-0.24%
-0.82%
-0.38%
(000s)
129.5
141.3
150.1
106.1
359.0
62.9
34.3
119.3
239.8
94.9
140.2
98.3
113.2
66.3
88.5
30.4
57.8
90.9
96.7
50.4
165.7
105.5
353.0
67.1
81.2
155.3
112.3
103.4
122.0
71.0
107.2
189.2
143.6
47.8
137.5
54.3
75.7
63.8
293.0
43.2
43.8
25.0
19.0
88.2
8,808.0
161.5
19.5
58.8
24.0
14.2
25.7
29.3
67.5
21.4
221.7
18.1
53.8
46.5
44.2
22.1
14.4
32.6
22.1
13.3
11.0
13.3
18.4
21.7
20.5
32.0
29.1
78.4
36.2
15.0
7.5
2.2
1.2
% of Lost
Jobs
%
Recaptured
17.15% 546.4%
16.57% 181.6%
15.87% 209.3%
14.76% 217.9%
14.36% 309.0%
12.73% 205.6%
12.25% 153.8%
12.13% 115.4%
12.01% 212.8%
11.88% 131.1%
11.85% 185.4%
11.72% 234.6%
11.60% 121.1%
10.99% 162.5%
10.63% 393.3%
10.57% 102.0%
10.29% 249.1%
10.15% 176.8%
10.03% 118.4%
10.02%
73.0%
10.00% 127.6%
9.62%
73.7%
9.62%
256.5%
9.57%
74.3%
9.37%
141.7%
9.21%
63.3%
9.15%
115.3%
9.02%
70.6%
9.00%
68.9%
8.90%
53.4%
8.58%
147.9%
8.40%
91.2%
8.38%
29.0%
8.30%
83.4%
8.16%
119.8%
7.82%
285.8%
7.79%
83.4%
7.77%
65.1%
7.55%
83.0%
7.40%
101.4%
7.34%
112.3%
7.30%
96.9%
7.08%
130.1%
6.88%
238.4%
6.79%
101.1%
6.76%
155.3%
6.14%
94.2%
6.00%
77.9%
5.83%
78.7%
5.68%
84.5%
5.64%
149.4%
5.64%
222.0%
5.54%
123.6%
5.24%
64.9%
5.24%
66.1%
5.11%
63.1%
4.85%
127.2%
4.62%
64.1%
4.57%
75.9%
4.49%
47.5%
4.32%
89.4%
4.06%
54.2%
4.02%
80.7%
3.98%
36.1%
3.94%
35.5%
3.80%
37.5%
3.69%
98.4%
3.59%
51.3%
3.49%
37.9%
3.25%
50.5%
3.02%
36.3%
2.93%
54.2%
2.81%
43.9%
2.81%
73.5%
1.01%
19.4%
0.71%
16.1%
0.32%
3.8%
RAIT Expectations
RAIT Financial Trust, LLC (“RAIT”) provides the foregoing presentation for informational purposes
only and it cannot be construed as investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation or
solicitation regarding any investment advisory services. This presentation does not constitute a
recommendation to hold, recommendation or offer to sell, solicitation or recommendation to purchase,
or any advice as to the value of, any security or investment advisory services. The information contained
in this presentation is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, and it may not
contain all material information concerning any securities which may be referenced in this presentation.
Neither RAIT nor its affiliates make any representation regarding, or assume responsibility or liability for,
the accuracy or completeness of, or any errors or omissions in this presentation. You agree that RAIT will
have no ability for any losses, claims, expenses, damages, judgments, assessments or costs relating to or
in connection with this presentation.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based upon the current
beliefs and expectations of RAIT's management and are inherently subject to significant business,
economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are difficult to predict. Actual
results may differ materially from the anticipated results discussed in these forward-looking statements.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak
only as of the date of this presentation. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements
attributable to RAIT or any person acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the
cautionary statements contained or referred to in this document and the related presentation. Except to
the extent required by applicable law or regulation, RAIT undertakes no obligation to update these
forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation or to
reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
11

RAIT Expectations - RAIT Financial Trust

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