Quality, bankability and investability

Quality, bankability and investability

SAFE YIELDS FROM PV POWER PLANTS
Harry Wirth
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy
Systems ISE
PV Investor Day
Recife, June 17th, 2015
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE
SAFE YIELDS FROM PV POWER PLANTS
Harry Wirth
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy
Systems ISE
PV Investor Day
Rio, June 19th, 2015
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE
OUTLINE
1. Quality, bankability and investability
2. Project development
3. Engineering
4. Procurement
5. Construction
6. Operation
7. Conclusions
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Fotos © Fraunhofer ISE
Fraunhofer ISE
Fields of Activity
Photovoltaics
Solar Thermal Technology
Silicon PV
Energy Efficient Buildings
Concentrator PV
Hydrogen Technology
Emerging PV
Energy System Technology
PV Modules and Power Plants
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Photovoltaic Modules, Systems and Reliability
Fields of Activity
PV Module Technology
Interconnection
technology
Module efficiency and
new concepts
Module Technology
Center (Module-TEC)
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Weathering and
Reliability
Reliability monito-ring,
testing, simu-lation for
solar appl.
Material and degradation analysis
Testlab PV Modules
Quality Assurance PV
Modules and Systems
Yield simulation
Module characteris.
Plant performance
verification
CalLab PV Modules
1. Quality, bankability and investability
QA from Stakeholder‘s Perspective
EPC
delivers
Bank
(DSCR, debt
service)
PV Power
Plant
Investor
(cash flow,
LCOE, ROI,
resale)
QA:
Quality Assurance
DSCR:
Debt Service Coverage Ratio
LCOE:
Levelized Cost of Energy
ROI:
Return on Investment
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© Fraunhofer ISE
independent,
comprehensive QA
Insurance (risk
mitigation)
Quality, bankability and investability
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Quality
Investment
O&M
Removal
total cost
LCOE =
total electric yield
Initial module
power @ STC
(as installed)
Initial
Performance
Ratio (PR)
STC:
Standard Test Conditions
O&M:
Operation and Maintenance
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Actual
irradiance
(Y1…Yn)
Annual
degradation
(power, PR)
Quality, bankability and investability
QA and Performance
Measured PR for 300 PV plants in 2013 (ISE), blue bars represent new plants
with basic initial quality assurance and continuous O&M.
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Quality, bankability and investability
Module Degradation and Service Life
1. Module design
& materials
2. Conformity, QA
(supply chain & production)
(type certificate)
Annual degradation
service life
rate,
(power, safety, appearance)
5. Local climate
(temperature, UV,
soiling, salt, corrosivity)
4. System design
(shading, string potential,
natural ventil.)
3. Module logistics,
installation (possible
Module IEC certificates are only the first step!
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© Fraunhofer ISE
damage)
Quality, bankability and investability
QA Sensitivity
Model calculation for 80% DSCR
-5% electric yield
+1%abs. annual O&M cost
+0.5%abs. annual degradation
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Investment impact
-> -27% cash flow
-> -62% cash flow
-16% profit over service life
-> -8% profit over service life
Quality, bankability and investability
QA along Project Phases
Project
Development
Engineering
Procurement
Construction
& Commiss.
Solar ressource
assessment
Module power and
energy rating
Representative
sampling
Final power plant
test
Performance
monitoring
PR potential
assessment
Yield assessment
Module check
Technology
benchmarking
- performance
“Quality Tested”
PV plant certification*
Performance
verification
Environmental
stress assessment
- reliability
- workmanship
*in
cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Operation
Quality, bankability and investability
QA along Project Phases
Project
Development
Engineering
Procurement
Construction
& Commiss.
Solar ressource
assessment
Module power and
energy rating
Representative
sampling
Final power plant
test
Performance
monitoring
PR potential
assessment
Yield assessment
Module check
Technology
benchmarking
- performance
“Quality Tested”
PV plant certification*
Performance
verification
Environmental
stress assessment
- reliability
- workmanship
*in
cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Operation
2. Project development
Solar Ressource Assessment
geomodelling based on
satellite data and ground
measurements
performance ratio potential
assessment and technology
benchmarkig
Classification of 100 locations into 12
irradiation regions
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Project development
Solar Ressource Assessment: Global Dimming and
Brightening
Moving average of the mean GHI
anomalies (black) and the trend lines
(red for the dimming period and green
for the brightening period)
Müller B, Wild M, Driesse A, Behrens K. Rethinking solar resource assessments in the context of
global dimming and brightening. Solar Energy 2014; Volume 99.
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Project development
Environmental stress assessment: Soiling
E.Klimm, L.Ost, T.Lorenz, M.Köhl, Gleisdorf SOLAR (2014)
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Project development
Environmental stress assessment: Soiling
SOILING
RISK MODEL
J.Hermann, K.Slamova, R.Glaser, M.Köhl, SHC (2013)
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Project development
Environmental stress assessment: Atmospheric
Corrosivity
K.Slamova, R.Glaser, C.Schill, S.Wiesmeier, M.Köhl, J. Photon. Energy. 2(1), (2012)
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© Fraunhofer ISE
3. Engineering
Project
Development
Engineering
Procurement
Construction
& Commiss.
Solar ressource
assessment
Module power and
energy rating
Representative
sampling
Final power plant
test
Performance
monitoring
PR potential
assessment
Yield assessment
Module check
Technology
benchmarking
- performance
“Quality Tested”
PV plant certification*
Performance
verification
Environmental
stress assessment
- reliability
- workmanship
*in
cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Operation
3. Engineering
Module Performance Testing and Energy Rating
(IEC 61853)
module temperature (°C)
irradiation
(W/m²)
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
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X
X
X
X
X
LTC
X
X
X
X
25
~47
X
STC
X
X NOCT
X
X
X
X
X
LIC
X
50
75
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
HTC
X
X
X
X
X
Table of irradiation and temperature values
for power measurements (grey: required by
standard).
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© Fraunhofer ISE
I-V curves, standard conditions according to
IEC 61853-1.
Engineering
Yield Assessment Report
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Engineering
PR Loss Analysis: Project examples
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Engineering
PR prediction uncertainty
Differences between monitored (left) and predicted (right) Performance Ratio
(PR) losses
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© Fraunhofer ISE
4. Procurement
Project
Development
Engineering
Procurement
Construction
& Commiss.
Solar ressource
assessment
Module power and
energy rating
Representative
sampling
Final power plant
test
Performance
monitoring
PR potential
assessment
Yield assessment
Module check
Technology
benchmarking
- performance
“Quality Tested”
PV plant certification*
Performance
verification
Environmental
stress assessment
- reliability
- workmanship
*in
cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Operation
4. Procurement
Flash list verification through representative samples
Pmpp [±%]
10
0
0
15286
complete, sorted flash list
representative samples
measurement before LID
measurement after LID
-10
Comparison of manufacturer data with Fraunhofer ISE
measurement values
Jantsch M, Dirnberger D, Neuberger F. Optimized procedures for representative samples from PV
module batches. 27th European PVSEC, Frankfurt, 2012.
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Procurement
Quality Benchmarking
Phase 1
Example | Customized Test Protocol
Definition of
Procedure and
Criterions
Definition of criterions,
selection of modules
Selection of
samples
Phase 2
Performance verification
Power at STC
Light Induced
Degradation
Phase 3
Characterization
Power Rating
Visual inspection
Electroluminescence (EL)
Options
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Report with
analysis of the
results
Performance verification
and visual inspection
Report with
analysis of the
results
Power rating and
reliability testing
Basic Reliability Testing
Sensitivity to
Cell Cracks (TC)
Sensitivity to
Snail-Trails
(DH, UV)
Enhanced Reliability Testing
Extreme
Climates
Visual
Inspection
Sensitivity to
Snail-Trails,
Yellowing ...
Potential
Induced Deg.
(PID)
Material Testing
Ultra-Violet
Light Test (UV)
Gel Content
Peel test
supplementary tests
Procurement
Measurement precision
The accredited photovoltaic calibration laboratory
„CalLab PV Modules“ has been considered as one of
the world‘s leading labs since 1986.
high precision module measurement capabilities
are the basis for procurement QA
Highly accurate performance measurement
(uncertainty ± 1.6%)
Regular round robin tests with leading labs
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© Fraunhofer ISE
5. Construction
Project
Development
Engineering
Procurement
Construction
& Commiss.
Solar ressource
assessment
Module power and
energy rating
Representative
sampling
Final power plant
test
Performance
monitoring
PR potential
assessment
Yield assessment
Module check
Technology
benchmarking
- performance
“Quality Tested”
PV plant certification*
Performance
verification
Environmental
stress assessment
- reliability
- workmanship
*in
cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Operation
5. Construction
Final power plant test
On site analysis by experienced team
Visual assessment for analysis of technical design
Thermographic imaging (defective modules, faulty contact points)
PID check
Performance Ratio (PR) assessment
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Construction
Reference Project
Europe‘s largest Thin Film PV
power plant
1.5 Mill. First Solar PV modules
115 SMA inverters
EPC: Belectric
Equity: Commerz Real
Power Plant Testing:
Fraunhofer ISE
128 MW power plant, Templin, Germany
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Construction
Reference Project
Stadium Pituacu in Salvador da
Bahia equipped for FIFA
Worldcup 2014
1
2
Latin America’s first PV
stadium, located in Brazil
Power Plant Testing, scientific
support: Fraunhofer ISE
4
5
3
Stadium with 400 kW PV system
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Construction
VDE-ISE PV Power Plant Certification
Farnung B, Bostock P, Brückner J, Kiefer K. 40th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference , Denver,
Colorado, 2014.
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Construction
Reference Project
World’s largest single axis tracking PV facility
704,160 First Solar PV modules
EPC: First Solar
Plant Certification: VDE & Fraunhofer ISE
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© Fraunhofer ISE
50 MW, Macho Springs,
Luna County, NM, USA
6. Operation
Project
Development
Engineering
Procurement
Construction
& Commiss.
Solar ressource
assessment
Module power and
energy rating
Representative
sampling
Final power plant
test
Performance
monitoring
PR potential
assessment
Yield assessment
Module check
Technology
benchmarking
- performance
“Quality Tested”
PV plant certification*
Performance
verification
Environmental
stress assessment
- reliability
- workmanship
*in
cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Operation
6. Operation
Performance Verification
High level of measurement accuracy
achieved with calibrated sensors (±
2%)
Daily evaluation
Multi-parameter monitoring for
analysis of system and components
300 monitoring systems currently in
use with detailed web portal,
scientific analysis and annual reports
System performance ratio
development
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© Fraunhofer ISE
7. Conclusion
Quality assurance that is
independent
comprehensive
precise
provided by experienced staff
… can substantially increase the project
value for all stake-holders
… at cost < 0.5% of the total project cost
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Fotos © Fraunhofer ISE
Thank You Very Much for Your Attention!
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Harry Wirth
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
[email protected]
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© Fraunhofer ISE