C SE Outlooks Ontario Regional 2015-2024

C SE Outlooks Ontario Regional 2015-2024

C4SE Outlooks
Ontario Regional 2015-2024
Major Economic Drivers
• Trading partner economic performance
o Impacts exports, interest rates, exchange rates, commodity prices,
inflation
• Major projects
o Drives investment and associated production of goods and services
• Demographics
o Impacts population growth and labour supply
• Economic policies
o Government fiscal policy regarding expenditures, taxes, and immigration
o Monetary policy regarding interest rates and exchange rates
Trading Partner
Real GDP Growth
(Annual Average, %)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Rest of Canada
United States
2010-14
Japan
2015-19
EU
2020-24
China
$US Commodity Price Indices
(2014=1.0)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Agriculture
Metals & Minerals
WTI Oil
Henry Hub Natural Gas
GDP Price Deflator
Inflation (%)
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
United States
Canada
Canadian Exchange Rate
($US)
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
3-Month Treasury Bill
Rates (%)
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Canada
2013
2015
2017
United States
2019
2021
2023
Northern Major Projects
• Mining
o Projects include Ignace Bending Lake, EMO Rainy River, Cochrane Detour
Lake, Red Lake, Pickle Lake, Wabigoon Goliath, White River Sugar Zone,
Kenora Kenbridge, Detour Gold Corp, and Vale Copper Cliff - $9.0 billion
• Utilities
o St. Mary’s Paper, New Post Creek, Lower Mattagami and OPG projects $4.0 billion
• Transportation
o Energy East pipeline $1 to $1.5 billion
• Manufacturing
o Terrace Bay and Atikokan pulp and sawmills and Vale Copper Cliff Nickel
Smelter - $1.3 billion
East and Central Major
Projects
• Utilities
o Central: Haldimand Solar 100MW Grand River Renewable Energy PV Park
and OPG projects - $1.5 billion
• Transportation
o East: Ottawa LRT and Energy East pipeline - $2.5 billion
o Central: Waterloo LRT - $1 billion
GTA Major Projects
• Utilities
o Darlington and other power projects - $10 billion
• Transportation
o Eglington LRT, Union-Pearson express, Union station upgrades, Sheppard
east LRT, Enbridge pipeline - $10 billion
• Manufacturing
o Ford plant expansion and retooling completed in 2014
• Highways
o 407 extensions - $2 billion
Southwest Major Projects
• Utilities
o Deep Geological Reserve, Bruce Replacement, K2 Wind power project,
OPG projects, Courtright Natural Gas 300mw Green Electron Power
Station - $20 billion
• Manufacturing
o Nova Chemicals - $0.5 billion
• Highways and Bridges
o Windsor-Essex Parkway, Detroit River International Crossing - $2.5 billion
Real GDP Growth
Ontario (%)
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Ontario Industry GDP
Growth (Annual Average, %)
Total
Agriculture
Mining & Forestry
Manufacturing
Utilities
Construction
Private Services
Public Services
2001-05
2.2
1.8
-0.9
-0.4
1.0
4.0
3.2
2.5
2006-10
0.7
3.0
-5.5
-5.0
2.5
2.1
1.4
3.1
2010-14
2.0
2.3
7.2
2.6
2.3
1.6
2.1
1.2
2015-19
2.2
1.6
4.8
3.5
2.0
2.3
2.4
0.9
2020-24
1.8
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.4
1.1
1.9
1.5
Employment & Labour
Force Growth,
Unemployment Rate
Ontario (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Employment
Labour Force
Unemployment Rate
Percent of Population in the
Labour Force, Ontario
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Population Age Groups,
Ontario, % of Total
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
0-14
15-24
25-54
55-64
65+
Ontario Population Growth
Components (%)
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Births-Deaths
Migration
Ontario Labour Force
Change Components
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
-50000
-100000
-150000
-200000
-250000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
New Entrants
Retirements/Deaths
Other Net In Mobility
Labour Force Change
2020
2021
2022
Net In-Migration
2023
2024
Ontario Job Openings
2012-2024 (000s)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Deaths & Retirements
Expansion Demand
Expansion demand refers to changes in employment
Ontario Regions
(Economic Regions and CMAs)
• North (ER 590, 595) – CMA Thunder Bay, Other
Northwest, CMA Sudbury, Other Northeast
• East (ER 510,515) – CMA Ottawa, Other East
• GTA (ER 530)
• Central (ER 520, 540, 550) – CMA Hamilton, CMA St.
Catharines-Niagara, CMA Kitchener-Waterloo,
Other Central
• South (ER 560, 570, 580) – CMA London, CMA
Windsor, Other South
Real GDP Share (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
North
East
GTA
Central
Southwest
Employment Share (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
North
East
GTA
Central
South
Population Share (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
North
East
GTA
Central
Southwest
Real GDP Growth
(Annual Average, %)
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2010-14
2015-19
North
East
GTA
Central
2020-24
Southwest
Employment Growth
(Annual Average, %)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2010-14
2015-19
North
East
GTA
2020-24
Central
Southwest
Average Annual Job Openings
(2015-2024, 000s)
Expansion
Replacement
Total
% Replacement
North
0.4
10.0
10.4
95.8
East
5.0
22.9
27.9
82.2
GTA
39.5
79.8
119.2
66.9
Central
11.2
41.2
52.3
78.7
4.4
19.7
24.1
81.8
60.4
173.6
234.0
74.2
Southwest
Ontario
Unemployment Rate (%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2007
2009
2011
North
2013
East
2015
GTA
2017
Central
2019
2021
Southwest
2023
Population Growth
(Annual Average, %)
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
2010-14
2015-19
North
East
GTA
2020-24
Central
Southwest
Natural Population Growth
Component
(Annual Average, %)
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
2010-14
2015-19
North
East
GTA
Central
2020-24
Southwest
Migration Population
Growth Component
(Annual Average, %)
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
2010-14
2015-19
North
East
GTA
2020-24
Central
Southwest
Consumer Expenditure
Growth
(Annual Average, %)
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2010-14
2015-19
North
East
GTA
Central
2020-24
Southwest
Residential Investment
Expenditures
($2007 Millions)
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
North
East
GTA
Central
Southwest
Housing Starts
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
North
East
GTA
Central
Southwest
Non-Residential
Investment Expenditures
($2007 Millions)
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
North
East
GTA
Central
Southwest